Science.gov

Sample records for affecting global climate

  1. Studies of dynamical processes affecting global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Keller, C.; Cooper, D.; Eichinger, W.

    1998-12-31

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The main objective was, by a combined theoretical and observational approach, to develop improved models of dynamic processes in the oceans and atmosphere and to incorporate them into large climate codes, chiefly in four main areas: numerical physics, chemistry, water vapor, and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Main areas of investigation included studies of: cloud parameterizations for global climate codes, Lidar and the planetary boundary layer, chemistry, climate variability using coupled ocean-atmospheric models, and numerical physical methods. This project employed a unique approach that included participation of a number of University of California faculty, postdoctoral fellows and graduate students who collaborated with Los Alamos research staff on specific tasks, thus greatly enhancing the research output. Overall accomplishments during the sensing of the atmospheric planetary were: (1) first two- and three-dimensional remote sensing of the atmospheric planetary boundary layer using Lidars, (2) modeling of 20-year cycle in both pressure and sea surface temperatures in North Pacific, (3) modeling of low frequency internal variability, (4) addition of aerosols to stratosphere to simulate Pinatubo effect on ozone, (5) development of fast, comprehensive chemistry in the troposphere for urban pollution studies, (6) new prognostic cloud parameterization in global atmospheric code remedied problems with North Pacific atmospheric circulation and excessive equatorial precipitation, (7) development of a unique aerosol analysis technique, the aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer (ATOFMS), which allows real-time analysis of the size and chemical composition of individual aerosol particles, and (8) numerical physics applying Approximate Inertial Manifolds to ocean circulation. 14 refs., 6 figs.

  2. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

    PubMed

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-03-04

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.

  3. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    PubMed Central

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  4. NATURAL AND ATHROPOGENIC FACTORS AFFECTING GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    New England weather is highly variable for a number of
    reasons. Our regional climate is also quite variable. The
    winters of the past decade are milder than they were in the
    1960s and 1970s but as the ice-out and snowfall data show
    (Figs 2.5 and 2.6), the patterns of c...

  5. Multimodel Estimate of Global Water Resources Affected by Human Interventions and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haddeland, I.; Biemans, H.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Stacke, T.; Tessler, Z. D.; Wada, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Several global hydrologic models have recently implemented reservoir operations and water withdrawals in their modeling schemes. Seven of these models (H08, LPJmL, PCR-GLOBWB, MPI-HM, VIC, WaterGAP and WBM) have been run within the framework of two model inter-comparison projects - the currently running Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and its predecessor on the water sector the Water Model Intercomparison Project (WaterMIP). In both projects hydrological models were forced with multiple climate projections from different Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) taking into account present day human interventions on the hydrological cycle such as dams and water withdrawals. By integrating results from the two projects we benefit form a large ensemble size that allows for assessments of uncertainties from climate projections from different AOGCMs. Here, multimodel analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the annual water cycle in some regions are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2K). In many river basins the relative effects of human interventions are much larger at the seasonal level than at the annual level. There is, however, a considerable spread in the model estimates of these impacts. Possible reasons for this spread, e.g. differences in the reservoir operation schemes, are discussed.

  6. Surgical Care Required for Populations Affected by Climate-related Natural Disasters: A Global Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Eugenia E.; Stewart, Barclay; Zha, Yuanting A.; Groen, Thomas A.; Burkle, Frederick M.; Kushner, Adam L.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Climate extremes will increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters worldwide.  Climate-related natural disasters were anticipated to affect 375 million people in 2015, more than 50% greater than the yearly average in the previous decade. To inform surgical assistance preparedness, we estimated the number of surgical procedures needed.   Methods: The numbers of people affected by climate-related disasters from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Centre for Research of the Epidemiology of Disasters database. Using 5,000 procedures per 100,000 persons as the minimum, baseline estimates were calculated. A linear regression of the number of surgical procedures performed annually and the estimated number of surgical procedures required for climate-related natural disasters was performed. Results: Approximately 140 million people were affected by climate-related natural disasters annually requiring 7.0 million surgical procedures. The greatest need for surgical care was in the People’s Republic of China, India, and the Philippines. Linear regression demonstrated a poor relationship between national surgical capacity and estimated need for surgical care resulting from natural disaster, but countries with the least surgical capacity will have the greatest need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Conclusion: As climate extremes increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, millions will need surgical care beyond baseline needs. Countries with insufficient surgical capacity will have the most need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Estimates of surgical are particularly important for countries least equipped to meet surgical care demands given critical human and physical resource deficiencies. PMID:27617165

  7. From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Boggs, Carol L; Stamberger, Jeannie A; Deutsch, Curtis A; Ehrlich, Paul R

    2014-10-22

    Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent.

  8. Man-Made Climatic Changes: Man's activities have altered the climate of urbanized areas and may affect global climate in the future.

    PubMed

    Landsberg, H E

    1970-12-18

    Natural climatic fluctuations, even those of recent years, cover a considerable range. They can be characterized as a "noise" spectrum which masks possible global effects of man-caused increases of atmospheric CO(2) and particulates. Local modifications, either deliberate or inadvertent, measurably affect the microclimate. Some artificial alterations of the microlimate are beneficial in agriculture. Among the unplanned effects, those produced by urbanization on local temperature and on wind field are quite pronounced. The influences on rainfall are still somewhat controversial, but effects may extend considerably beyond the confines of metropolitan areas. They are the result of water vapor released by human activity and of the influence of condensation and freezing nuclei produced in overabundance by motor vehicles and other combustion processes. Therefore it appears that on the local scale man-made influences on climate are substantial but that on the global scale natural forces still prevail. Obviously this should not lead to complacency. The potential for anthropogenic changes of climate on a larger and even a global scale is real. At this stage activation of an adequate worldwide monitoring system to permit early assessment of these changes is urgent. This statement applies particularly to the surveillance of atmospheric composition and radiation balance at sites remote from concentrations of population, which is now entirely inadequate. In my opinion, man-made aerosols, because of their optical properties and possible influences on cloud and precipitation processes, constitute a more acute problem than CO(2). Many of their effects are promptly reversible; hence, one should strive for elimination at the source. Over longer intervals, energy added to the atmosphere by heat rejection and CO(2) absorption remain matters of concern.

  9. Disciplinary reporting affects the interpretation of climate change impacts in global oceans.

    PubMed

    Hauser, Donna D W; Tobin, Elizabeth D; Feifel, Kirsten M; Shah, Vega; Pietri, Diana M

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems, but different investigative approaches in physical, chemical, and biological disciplines may influence interpretations of climate-driven changes in the ocean. Here, we review the ocean change literature from 2007 to 2012 based on 461 of the most highly cited studies in physical and chemical oceanography and three biological subdisciplines. Using highly cited studies, we focus on research that has shaped recent discourse on climate-driven ocean change. Our review identified significant differences in spatial and temporal scales of investigation among disciplines. Physical/chemical studies had a median duration of 29 years (n = 150) and covered the greatest study areas (median 1.41 × 10(7) km(2) , n = 148). Few biological studies were conducted over similar spatial and temporal scales (median 8 years, n = 215; median 302 km(2) , n = 196), suggesting a more limited ability to separate climate-related responses from natural variability. We linked physical/chemical and biological disciplines by tracking studies examining biological responses to changing ocean conditions. Of the 545 biological responses recorded, a single physical or chemical stressor was usually implicated as the cause (59%), with temperature as the most common primary stressor (44%). The most frequently studied biological responses were changes in physiology (31%) and population abundance (30%). Differences in disciplinary studies, as identified in this review, can ultimately influence how researchers interpret climate-related impacts in marine systems. We identified research gaps and the need for more discourse in (1) the Indian and other Southern Hemisphere ocean basins; (2) research themes such as archaea, bacteria, viruses, mangroves, turtles, and ocean acidification; (3) physical and chemical stressors such as dissolved oxygen, salinity, and upwelling; and (4) adaptive responses of marine organisms to climate-driven ocean change. Our findings reveal

  10. Simulating Global Climate Summits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vesperman, Dean P.; Haste, Turtle; Alrivy, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    One of the most persistent and controversial issues facing the global community is climate change. With the creation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol (1997), the global community established some common ground on how to address this issue. However, the last several climate summits have failed…

  11. Global climate change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases.

  12. Global climate feedbacks

    SciTech Connect

    Manowitz, B.

    1990-10-01

    The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

  13. Global River Flood Exposure Assessment Under Climate Change: How Many Asians Are Affected By Flood in the Future?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwak, Y.; Iwami, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Physical exposure assessment in this study shows a methodological possibility to be used as a preliminary case study based on a global approach for flood risk assessment consisting of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The purpose of this preliminary study is to estimate potential flood inundation areas as a hazard (both present and future condition), and flood exposure change over the Asia region with consideration of climate change impacts. A flood hazard was characterized by inundation area at the high-resolution of 500 m, location (lowland around rivers), and probability (floods with the 50-year return period). This study introduced a new approach to moderate the global flood hazard and the exposure calculation with significant limitations of current models for continental-scale flood risk assessment by using the flood inundation depth (FID) model based on Manning's steady, uniform flow resistance formula in extreme case during 25-year simulations based on the global BTOP distributed hydrological model using precipitations from the MRI-AGCM 3.2S with SRES A1B emissions scenarios for present-day (daily data from 1980 to 2004), and end-of-the-21st century (daily data from 2075 to 2099). It effectively simplified the complexity between hydrological and topological variables in a flood risk-prone area with assumption of the effects of natural or artificial levees. Exposure was obtained by combining the hazards at the same resolution to identify affected population by calculating with urbanization ratio and population change ratio of Asian countries from a distributed data of global population (Landscan by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory). As a result of the physical exposure assessment from present to the end-of-the-21st century, potential hazards area and affected population are projected to increase 4.2 % (approximately 75,900 km2) and 3.4 % (approximately 35.1 million people) respectively, because Asian population increases about 43% in the future. We found

  14. Climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951-2000

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Milliman, John D.; Farnsworth, K.L.; Jones, P.D.; Xu, K.H.; Smith, L.C.

    2008-01-01

    During the last half of the 20th century, cumulative annual discharge from 137 representative rivers (watershed areas ranging from 0.3 to 6300 ?? 103??km2) to the global ocean remained constant, although annual discharge from about one-third of these rivers changed by more than 30%. Discharge trends for many rivers reflected mostly changes in precipitation, primarily in response to short- and longer-term atmospheric-oceanic signals; with the notable exception of the Parana, Mississippi, Niger and Cunene rivers, few of these "normal" rivers experienced significant changes in either discharge or precipitation. Cumulative discharge from many mid-latitude rivers, in contrast, decreased by 60%, reflecting in large part impacts due to damming, irrigation and interbasin water transfers. A number of high-latitude and high-altitude rivers experienced increased discharge despite generally declining precipitation. Poorly constrained meteorological and hydrological data do not seem to explain fully these "excess" rivers; changed seasonality in discharge, decreased storage and/or decreased evapotranspiration also may play important roles. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #34: PUBLICATION OF FACT SHEET BY EPA REGION 3, "HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION?"

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA's Global Change Research Program is pleased to announce the publication of a fact sheet entitled, "How Will Climate Change Affect the Mid-Atlantic Region?." This information sheet was prepared and published by EPA's Region 3 office. It summarizes key findings from the Mid-Atl...

  16. Designing Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  17. Global climate change and children's health.

    PubMed

    Shea, Katherine M

    2007-11-01

    There is a broad scientific consensus that the global climate is warming, the process is accelerating, and that human activities are very likely (>90% probability) the main cause. This warming will have effects on ecosystems and human health, many of them adverse. Children will experience both the direct and indirect effects of climate change. Actions taken by individuals, communities, businesses, and governments will affect the magnitude and rate of global climate change and resultant health impacts. This technical report reviews the nature of the global problem and anticipated health effects on children and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health.

  18. Identification and preliminary characterization of global water resource issues which may be affected by CO/sub 2/-induced climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Callaway, J.M.; Cohen, M.L.; Currie, J.W.

    1984-04-01

    The objectives were to: (1) identify, characterize, and define existing or projected regional and global water resource management issues which may be affected by CO/sub 2/-induced climate changes; and (2) develop research priorities for acquiring additional information about the potential effects of a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change on the availability and allocation of freshwater supplies. The research was broken into four work elements: (1) identification of water resource management issues on a global and regional basis; (2) identification of a subset of generic CO/sub 2/-related water resource management issues believed to have the highest probability of being affected, beneficially or adversely, by a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change; (3) selection of specific sites for examining the potential effect of a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change on these issues; and (4) conducting detailed case studies at these sites, the results from which will be used to identify future research and data needs in the area of water resources. This report summarizes the research related to the first three work elements. 6 figures, 9 tables.

  19. Global Air Quality and Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Sudo, Kengo; Szopa, Sophie; Horowitz, Larry W.; Takemura, Toshihiko; Zeng, Guang; Cameron-Smith, Philip J.; Cionni, Irene; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Eyring, Veronika; Folberth, Gerd A.; Ginoux, Paul; Josse, Batrice; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; OConnor, Fiona M.; Mackenzie, Ian A.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Shindell, Drew Todd; Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2012-01-01

    Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative

  20. Global air quality and climate.

    PubMed

    Fiore, Arlene M; Naik, Vaishali; Spracklen, Dominick V; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Prather, Michael; Bergmann, Dan; Cameron-Smith, Philip J; Cionni, Irene; Collins, William J; Dalsøren, Stig; Eyring, Veronika; Folberth, Gerd A; Ginoux, Paul; Horowitz, Larry W; Josse, Béatrice; Lamarque, Jean-François; MacKenzie, Ian A; Nagashima, Tatsuya; O'Connor, Fiona M; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T; Shindell, Drew T; Skeie, Ragnhild B; Sudo, Kengo; Szopa, Sophie; Takemura, Toshihiko; Zeng, Guang

    2012-10-07

    Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas

  1. Terrestrial ecosystem feedbacks to global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Lashof, D.A.; DeAngelo, B.J.; Saleska, S.R.; Harte, J.

    1997-12-31

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gases are expected to induce changes in global climate that can alter ecosystems in ways that, in turn, may further affect climate. Such climate-ecosystem interactions can generate either positive or negative feedbacks to the climate system, thereby either enhancing or diminishing the magnitude of global climate change. Important terrestrial feedback mechanisms include CO{sub 2} fertilization (negative feedbacks), carbon storage in vegetation and soils (positive and negative feedbacks), vegetation albedo (positive feedbacks), and peatland methane emissions (positive and negative feedbacks). While the processes involved are complex, not readily quantifiable, and demonstrate both positive and negative feedback potential, the authors conclude that the combined effect of the feedback mechanisms reviewed here will likely amplify climate change relative to current projections that have not yet adequately incorporated these mechanisms. 162 refs., 7 figs., 3 tabs.

  2. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  3. Global climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Houghton, R.A.; Woodwell, G.M.

    1989-04-01

    This paper reviews the climatic effects of trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. It discusses the expected changes from the increases in trace gases and the extent to which the expected changes can be found in the climate record and in the retreat of glaciers. The use of ice cores in correlating atmospheric composition and climate is discussed. The response of terrestrial ecosystems as a biotic feedback is discussed. Possible responses are discussed, including reduction in fossil-fuel use, controls on deforestation, and reforestation. International aspects, such as the implications for developing nations, are addressed.

  4. Global Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, Dorothy K.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses recent changes in the Earth's climate. Summarizes reports on changes related to carbon dioxide, temperature, rain, sea level, and glaciers in polar areas. Describes the present effort to measure the changes. Lists 16 references. (YP)

  5. Global Climatic Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  6. Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

    PubMed

    Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

    2016-01-01

    The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale.

  7. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    PubMed

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  8. Non-deforestation fire vs. fossil fuel combustion: the source of CO2 emissions affects the global carbon cycle and climate responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

    2016-04-01

    Non-deforestation fire - i.e., fire that is typically followed by the recovery of natural vegetation - is arguably the most influential disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems, thereby playing a major role in carbon exchanges and affecting many climatic processes. The radiative effect from a given atmospheric CO2 perturbation is the same for fire and fossil fuel combustion. However, major differences exist per unit of CO2 emitted between the effects of non-deforestation fire vs. fossil fuel combustion on the global carbon cycle and climate, because (1) fossil fuel combustion implies a net transfer of carbon from geological reservoirs to the atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial pools, whereas fire occurring in terrestrial ecosystems does not; (2) the average lifetime of the atmospheric CO2 increase is longer when originating from fossil fuel combustion compared to fire, due to the strong vegetation regrowth following fire disturbances in terrestrial ecosystems; and (3) other impacts, for example on land surface albedo, also differ between fire and fossil fuel combustion. The main purpose of this study is to illustrate the consequences from these fundamental differences between fossil fuel combustion and non-deforestation fires using 1000-year simulations of a coupled climate-carbon model with interactive vegetation. We assessed emissions from both pulse and stable fire regime changes, considering both the gross (carbon released from combustion) and net (fire-caused change in land carbon, also accounting for vegetation decomposition and regrowth, as well as climate-carbon feedbacks) fire CO2 emissions. In all cases, we found substantial differences from equivalent amounts of emissions produced by fossil fuel combustion. These findings suggest that side-by-side comparisons of non-deforestation fire and fossil fuel CO2 emissions - implicitly implying that they have similar effects per unit of CO2 emitted - should therefore be avoided, particularly when these comparisons

  9. Global Climate Change Interaction Web.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fortner, Rosanne W.

    1998-01-01

    Students investigate the effects of global climate change on life in the Great Lakes region in this activity. Teams working together construct as many links as possible for such factors as rainfall, lake water, evaporation, skiing, zebra mussels, wetlands, shipping, walleye, toxic chemicals, coastal homes, and population. (PVD)

  10. Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Clark, Peter U; Shakun, Jeremy D; Baker, Paul A; Bartlein, Patrick J; Brewer, Simon; Brook, Ed; Carlson, Anders E; Cheng, Hai; Kaufman, Darrell S; Liu, Zhengyu; Marchitto, Thomas M; Mix, Alan C; Morrill, Carrie; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Pahnke, Katharina; Russell, James M; Whitlock, Cathy; Adkins, Jess F; Blois, Jessica L; Clark, Jorie; Colman, Steven M; Curry, William B; Flower, Ben P; He, Feng; Johnson, Thomas C; Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean; Markgraf, Vera; McManus, Jerry; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Moreno, Patricio I; Williams, John W

    2012-05-08

    Deciphering the evolution of global climate from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19 ka to the early Holocene 11 ka presents an outstanding opportunity for understanding the transient response of Earth's climate system to external and internal forcings. During this interval of global warming, the decay of ice sheets caused global mean sea level to rise by approximately 80 m; terrestrial and marine ecosystems experienced large disturbances and range shifts; perturbations to the carbon cycle resulted in a net release of the greenhouse gases CO(2) and CH(4) to the atmosphere; and changes in atmosphere and ocean circulation affected the global distribution and fluxes of water and heat. Here we summarize a major effort by the paleoclimate research community to characterize these changes through the development of well-dated, high-resolution records of the deep and intermediate ocean as well as surface climate. Our synthesis indicates that the superposition of two modes explains much of the variability in regional and global climate during the last deglaciation, with a strong association between the first mode and variations in greenhouse gases, and between the second mode and variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

  11. Psychology's contributions to understanding and addressing global climate change.

    PubMed

    Swim, Janet K; Stern, Paul C; Doherty, Thomas J; Clayton, Susan; Reser, Joseph P; Weber, Elke U; Gifford, Robert; Howard, George S

    2011-01-01

    Global climate change poses one of the greatest challenges facing humanity in this century. This article, which introduces the American Psychologist special issue on global climate change, follows from the report of the American Psychological Association Task Force on the Interface Between Psychology and Global Climate Change. In this article, we place psychological dimensions of climate change within the broader context of human dimensions of climate change by addressing (a) human causes of, consequences of, and responses (adaptation and mitigation) to climate change and (b) the links between these aspects of climate change and cognitive, affective, motivational, interpersonal, and organizational responses and processes. Characteristics of psychology that cross content domains and that make the field well suited for providing an understanding of climate change and addressing its challenges are highlighted. We also consider ethical imperatives for psychologists' involvement and provide suggestions for ways to increase psychologists' contribution to the science of climate change.

  12. Global Climate Change and Agriculture

    SciTech Connect

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2007 significantly increased our confidence about the role that humans play in forcing climate change. There is now a high degree of confidence that the (a) current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) far exceed those of the pre-industrial era, (b) global increases in CO2 arise mainly from fossil fuel use and land use change while those of CH4 and N2O originate primarily from agricultural activities, and (c) the net effect of human activities since 1750 has led to a warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere, with an increased radiative forcing of 1.6 W m-2. Depending on the scenario of human population growth and global development, mean global temperatures could rise between 1.8 and 4.0 °C by the end of the 21st century.

  13. Avian migration phenology and global climate change.

    PubMed

    Cotton, Peter A

    2003-10-14

    There is mounting evidence that global climate change has extended growing seasons, changed distribution patterns, and altered the phenology of flowering, breeding, and migration. For migratory birds, the timing of arrival on breeding territories and over-wintering grounds is a key determinant of reproductive success, survivorship, and fitness. But we know little of the factors controlling earlier passage in long-distance migrants. Over the past 30 years in Oxfordshire, U.K., the average arrival and departure dates of 20 migrant bird species have both advanced by 8 days; consequently, the overall residence time in Oxfordshire has remained unchanged. The timing of arrival has advanced in relation to increasing winter temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa, whereas the timing of departure has advanced after elevated summer temperatures in Oxfordshire. This finding demonstrates that migratory phenology is quite likely to be affected by global climate change and links events in tropical winter quarters with those in temperate breeding areas.

  14. How increasing CO sub 2 and climate change affect forests

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, R.L.; Turner, M.G.; Dale, V.H. )

    1990-09-01

    The strong relationship among climate, atmosphere, soils, biota, and human activities provides a solid basis for anticipating changes in terrestrial biomes in response to changes in the global environment. This article examines potential forest responses to elevated carbon dioxide in conjunction with climatic change. Key ecological processes and how human intervention can affect those processes is presented.

  15. Global climate change and children's health.

    PubMed

    Shea, Katherine M

    2007-11-01

    There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to

  16. Climate science: Misconceptions of global catastrophe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-04-01

    American attitudes to changing weather, and therefore to climate change, have been analysed on the basis of US migration patterns since the 1970s. The findings have implications for the success of global climate policies. See Letter p.357

  17. Global Climate Change and the Mitigation Challenge

    EPA Science Inventory

    Book edited by Frank Princiotta titled Global Climate Change--The Technology Challenge Transparent modeling tools and the most recent literature are used, to quantify the challenge posed by climate change and potential technological remedies. The chapter examines forces driving ...

  18. Energy, atmospheric chemistry, and global climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1991-01-01

    Global atmospheric changes due to ozone destruction and the greenhouse effect are discussed. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is reviewed, including its judgements regarding global warming and its recommendations for improving predictive capability. The chemistry of ozone destruction and the global atmospheric budget of nitrous oxide are reviewed, and the global sources of nitrous oxide are described.

  19. Forests, carbon and global climate.

    PubMed

    Malhi, Yadvinder; Meir, Patrick; Brown, Sandra

    2002-08-15

    This review places into context the role that forest ecosystems play in the global carbon cycle, and their potential interactions with climate change. We first examine the natural, preindustrial carbon cycle. Every year forest gross photosynthesis cycles approximately one-twelfth of the atmospheric stock of carbon dioxide, accounting for 50% of terrestrial photosynthesis. This cycling has remained almost constant since the end of the last ice age, but since the Industrial Revolution it has undergone substantial disruption as a result of the injection of 480 PgC into the atmosphere through fossil-fuel combustion and land-use change, including forest clearance. In the second part of this paper we review this 'carbon disruption', and its impact on the oceans, atmosphere and biosphere. Tropical deforestation is resulting in a release of 1.7 PgC yr(-1) into the atmosphere. However, there is also strong evidence for a 'sink' for carbon in natural vegetation (carbon absorption), which can be explained partly by the regrowth of forests on abandoned lands, and partly by a global change factor, the most likely cause being 'fertilization' resulting from the increase in atmospheric CO(2). In the 1990s this biosphere sink was estimated to be sequestering 3.2 PgC yr(-1) and is likely to have substantial effects on the dynamics, structure and biodiversity of all forests. Finally, we examine the potential for forest protection and afforestation to mitigate climate change. An extensive global carbon sequestration programme has the potential to make a particularly significant contribution to controlling the rise in CO2 emissions in the next few decades. In the course of the whole century, however, even the maximum amount of carbon that could be sequestered will be dwarfed by the magnitude of (projected) fossil-fuel emissions. Forest carbon sequestration should only be viewed as a component of a mitigation strategy, not as a substitute for the changes in energy supply, use and

  20. Global lightning activity and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Price, C.G.

    1993-12-31

    The relationship between global lightning frequencies and global climate change is examined in this thesis. In order to study global impacts of climate change, global climate models or General Circulations Models (GCMs) need to be utilized. Since these models have coarse resolutions many atmospheric phenomena that occur at subgrid scales, such as lightning, need to be parameterized whenever possible. We begin with a simple parameterization used to Simulate total (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning frequencies. The parameterization uses convective cloud top height to approximate lightning frequencies. Then we consider a parameterization for simulating cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning around the globe. This parameterization uses the thickness of the cold cloud sector in thunderstorms (0{degrees}C to cloud top) to calculate the proportion of CG flashes in a particular thunderstorm. We model lightning in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. We present two climate change scenarios. One for a climate where the solar constant is reduced by 2% (5.9{degrees}C global cooling), and one for a climate with twice the present concentration of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere (4.2{degrees}C global warming). The results imply a 24%/30% decrease/increase in global lightning frequencies for the cooler/warmer climate. The possibility of using the above findings to monitor future global warming is discussed. The earth`s ionospheric potential, which is regulated by global thunderstorm activity, could supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. Finally, we look at the implications of changes in both lightning frequencies and the hydrological cycle, as a result of global warming, on natural forest fires. In the U.S. the annual mean number of lightning fires could increase by 40% while the area burned may increase by 65% in a 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. On a global scale the largest increase in lightning fires can be expected in the tropics.

  1. Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health.

    PubMed

    Rice, Mary B; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Pinkerton, Kent E

    2014-03-01

    Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies.

  2. Climate Change. A Global Threat to Cardiopulmonary Health

    PubMed Central

    Thurston, George D.; Balmes, John R.; Pinkerton, Kent E.

    2014-01-01

    Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies. PMID:24400619

  3. Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming.

    PubMed

    Dillon, Michael E; Wang, George; Huey, Raymond B

    2010-10-07

    Documented shifts in geographical ranges, seasonal phenology, community interactions, genetics and extinctions have been attributed to recent global warming. Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere-a latitudinal pattern that is expected because warming is fastest in these regions. In contrast, shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked because warming is less pronounced there. However, biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology, and metabolic rate, which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact, increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms. Therefore, tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest, but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large, are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions, and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic, even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism, tropical organisms, which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity, should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming.

  4. Psychological research and global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clayton, Susan; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Stern, Paul C.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet; Bonnes, Mirilia

    2015-07-01

    Human behaviour is integral not only to causing global climate change but also to responding and adapting to it. Here, we argue that psychological research should inform efforts to address climate change, to avoid misunderstandings about human behaviour and motivations that can lead to ineffective or misguided policies. We review three key research areas: describing human perceptions of climate change; understanding and changing individual and household behaviour that drives climate change; and examining the human impacts of climate change and adaptation responses. Although much has been learned in these areas, we suggest important directions for further research.

  5. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  6. Impact of solar panels on global climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Aixue; Levis, Samuel; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing; Washington, Warren M.; Oleson, Keith W.; van Ruijven, Bas J.; He, Mingqiong; Strand, Warren G.

    2016-03-01

    Regardless of the harmful effects of burning fossil fuels on global climate, other energy sources will become more important in the future because fossil fuels could run out by the early twenty-second century given the present rate of consumption. This implies that sooner or later humanity will rely heavily on renewable energy sources. Here we model the effects of an idealized large-scale application of renewable energy on global and regional climate relative to a background climate of the representative concentration pathway 2.6 scenario (RCP2.6; ref. ). We find that solar panels alone induce regional cooling by converting incoming solar energy to electricity in comparison to the climate without solar panels. The conversion of this electricity to heat, primarily in urban areas, increases regional and global temperatures which compensate the cooling effect. However, there are consequences involved with these processes that modulate the global atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in regional precipitation.

  7. Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high Arctic?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mech, L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Global climate change may affect wolves in Canada's High Arctic (80DG N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena.

  8. Global climate change and international security

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  9. Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

    2011-12-01

    In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

  10. Global climate change and US agriculture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  11. The Psychological Impacts of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doherty, Thomas J.; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological…

  12. A Global Climate Model for Instruction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burt, James E.

    This paper describes a simple global climate model useful in a freshman or sophomore level course in climatology. There are three parts to the paper. The first part describes the model, which is a global model of surface air temperature averaged over latitude and longitude. Samples of the types of calculations performed in the model are provided.…

  13. Global Warming and Climate Change Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, Atul

    2008-03-01

    Global climate change has emerged as a major scientific and political issue within a few short decades. Scientific evidence clearly indicates that this change is a result of a complex interplay between a number of human-related and natural earth systems. While the complexity of the earth-ocean-atmosphere system makes the understanding and prediction of global climate change very difficult, improved scientific knowledge and research capabilities are advancing our understanding of global climate change resulting from rising atmospheric levels of radiatively important (mostly heat-trapping) gases and particles. The effects of climate change can be assessed with climate models, which account for complex physical, chemical and biological processes, and interactions of these processes with human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels along with land use changes. This presentation begins with a discussion of the current understanding of the concerns about climate change, and then discusses the role climate models in scientific projections of climate change as well as their current strengths and weaknesses.

  14. Mass support for global climate agreements depends on institutional design

    PubMed Central

    Bechtel, Michael M.; Scheve, Kenneth F.

    2013-01-01

    Effective climate mitigation requires international cooperation, and these global efforts need broad public support to be sustainable over the long run. We provide estimates of public support for different types of climate agreements in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Using data from a large-scale experimental survey, we explore how three key dimensions of global climate cooperation—costs and distribution, participation, and enforcement—affect individuals’ willingness to support these international efforts. We find that design features have significant effects on public support. Specifically, our results indicate that support is higher for global climate agreements that involve lower costs, distribute costs according to prominent fairness principles, encompass more countries, and include a small sanction if a country fails to meet its emissions reduction targets. In contrast to well-documented baseline differences in public support for climate mitigation efforts, opinion responds similarly to changes in climate policy design in all four countries. We also find that the effects of institutional design features can bring about decisive changes in the level of public support for a global climate agreement. Moreover, the results appear consistent with the view that the sensitivity of public support to design features reflects underlying norms of reciprocity and individuals’ beliefs about the potential effectiveness of specific agreements. PMID:23886666

  15. Mass support for global climate agreements depends on institutional design.

    PubMed

    Bechtel, Michael M; Scheve, Kenneth F

    2013-08-20

    Effective climate mitigation requires international cooperation, and these global efforts need broad public support to be sustainable over the long run. We provide estimates of public support for different types of climate agreements in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Using data from a large-scale experimental survey, we explore how three key dimensions of global climate cooperation--costs and distribution, participation, and enforcement--affect individuals' willingness to support these international efforts. We find that design features have significant effects on public support. Specifically, our results indicate that support is higher for global climate agreements that involve lower costs, distribute costs according to prominent fairness principles, encompass more countries, and include a small sanction if a country fails to meet its emissions reduction targets. In contrast to well-documented baseline differences in public support for climate mitigation efforts, opinion responds similarly to changes in climate policy design in all four countries. We also find that the effects of institutional design features can bring about decisive changes in the level of public support for a global climate agreement. Moreover, the results appear consistent with the view that the sensitivity of public support to design features reflects underlying norms of reciprocity and individuals' beliefs about the potential effectiveness of specific agreements.

  16. Global climate imprint on seismic noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stutzmann, EléOnore; Schimmel, Martin; Patau, GenevièVe; Maggi, Alessia

    2009-11-01

    In the absence of earthquakes, oceanic microseisms are the strongest signals recorded by seismic stations. Using the GEOSCOPE global seismic network, we show that the secondary microseism spectra have global characteristics that depend on the station latitude and on the season. In both hemispheres, noise amplitude is larger during local winter, and close to the equator, noise amplitude is stable over the year. There is an excellent correlation between microseism amplitude variations over the year and changes in the highest wave areas. Considering the polarization of the secondary microseisms, we show that stations in the Northern Hemisphere and close to the equator record significant changes of the secondary microseism source azimuth over the year. During Northern Hemisphere summer, part or all of the sources are systematically located farther toward the south than during winter. Stations in French Guyana (MPG) and in Algeria (TAM) record microseisms generated several thousand kilometers away in the South Pacific Ocean and in the Indian Ocean, respectively. Thus, secondary microseism sources generated by ocean waves which originate in the Southern Hemisphere can be recorded by Northern Hemisphere stations when local sources are weak. We also show, considering a station close to Antarctica, that primary and secondary microseism noise amplitudes are strongly affected by changes of the sea ice floe and that sources of these microseisms are in different areas. Microseism recording can therefore be used to monitor climate changes.

  17. Knowledge of Global Climate Change: View of Iranian University Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salehi, Sadegh; Nejad, Zahra Pazuki; Mahmoudi, Hossein; Burkart, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    This article assesses students' understanding of global climate change (GCC) and social factors affecting it. It was hypothesized that students who demonstrate pro-environmental attitudes are more likely to possess higher knowledge of GCC. It was further hypothesized that trust and personal efficiency would have a positive effect on the knowledge…

  18. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    PubMed

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health.

  19. Globalization to amplify economic climate losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, C.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Economic welfare under enhanced anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated future warming poses a major challenge for a society with an evolving globally connected economy. Unabated climate change will impact economic output for example through heat-stress-related reductions in productivity. Since meteorologically-induced production reductions can propagate along supply chains, structural changes in the economic network may influence climate-related losses. The role of the economic network evolution for climate impacts has been neither quantified nor qualitatively understood. Here we show that since the beginning of the 21st century the structural change of the global supply network has been such that an increase of spillover losses due to unanticipated climatic events has to be expected. We quantify primary, secondary and higher-order losses from reduced labor productivity under past and present economic and climatic conditions and find that indirect losses are significant and increase with rising temperatures. The connectivity of the economic network has increased in such a way as to foster the propagation of production loss. This supply chain connectivity robustly exhibits the characteristic distribution of self-organized criticality which has been shifted towards higher values since 2001. Losses due to this structural evolution dominated over the effect of comparably weak climatic changes during this decade. Our finding suggests that the current form of globalization may amplify losses due to climatic extremes and thus necessitate structural adaptation that requires more foresight than presently prevalent.

  20. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands.

    PubMed

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A; Li, Yue

    2016-05-31

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2-71.2% during 1982-2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms.

  1. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

    2016-05-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms.

  2. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

    2016-01-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

  3. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.E.; Weiher, R.

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  4. Global potential of biospheric carbon management for climate mitigation.

    PubMed

    Canadell, Josep G; Schulze, E Detlef

    2014-11-19

    Elevated concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), have affected the global climate. Land-based biological carbon mitigation strategies are considered an important and viable pathway towards climate stabilization. However, to satisfy the growing demands for food, wood products, energy, climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation-all of which compete for increasingly limited quantities of biomass and land-the deployment of mitigation strategies must be driven by sustainable and integrated land management. If executed accordingly, through avoided emissions and carbon sequestration, biological carbon and bioenergy mitigation could save up to 38 billion tonnes of carbon and 3-8% of estimated energy consumption, respectively, by 2050.

  5. Global climate change and international security.

    SciTech Connect

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  6. The global land rush and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2015-08-01

    Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

  7. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    PubMed

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  8. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    PubMed Central

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  9. Global Distributions of Vulnerability to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Yohe, Gary; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.; Schlesinger, Michael; Meij, Henk; Xiaoshi, Xing

    2006-12-01

    Signatories of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have committed themselves to addressing the “specific needs and special circumstances of developing country parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change”.1 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has since concluded with high confidence that “developing countries will be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries”.2 In their most recent report, however, the IPCC notes that “current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient for reliable prediction of adaptations” 3 because “the capacity to adapt varies considerably among regions, countries and socioeconomic groups and will vary over time”.4 Here, we respond to the apparent contradiction in these two statements by exploring how variation in adaptive capacity and climate impacts combine to influence the global distribution of vulnerability. We find that all countries will be vulnerable to climate change, even if their adaptive capacities are enhanced. Developing nations are most vulnerable to modest climate change. Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions would diminish their vulnerabilities significantly. Developed countries would benefit most from mitigation for moderate climate change. Extreme climate change overwhelms the abilities of all countries to adapt. These findings should inform both ongoing negotiations for the next commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and emerging plans for implementing UNFCCC-sponsored adaptation funds.

  10. The Global Climate Observing System. French contribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juvanon-Du-Vachat, R.

    2010-09-01

    THE GLOBAL CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM. FRENCH CONTRIBUTION Régis Juvanon du Vachat Société Météorologique de France, c/o D2I/MI, 1, Quai Branly 75007 Paris France is participating fully in the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). It incorporates the following four components: meteorological and atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, spatial, which will be briefly presented, especially in relation with the monitoring of the climate. The presentation will give an overview of the general principles governing the GCOS system and particularly the concepts used to maintain efficiently this climate observing system for a long period of time ("from research networks to operational networks"). The presentation will cover all the four components of the GCOS system. The whole report has been published in the Fifth National Communication from France to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). The presentation will give an overview of the different networks of these four domains devoted to the monitoring of climate and maintained by France and highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of this climate observing system.

  11. Global climate change and pedogenic carbonates

    SciTech Connect

    Lal, R.; Kimble, J.M.; Stewart, B.A.; Eswaran, H.

    1999-11-01

    Global Climate Change summarizes what is known about soil inorganic carbon and develops strategies that could lead to the retention of more carbon in the soil. It covers basic concepts, analytical methods, secondary carbonates, and research and development priorities. With this book one will get a better understanding of the global carbon cycle, organic and inorganic carbon, and their roles, or what is known of them, in the greenhouse effect.

  12. Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high Arctic?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mech, L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Gobal climate change may affect wolves in Canada's High Arctic (80?? N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However, when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

  13. Engineering change in global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Schneider, S.H.

    1996-12-31

    {open_quotes}With increased public focus on global warming and in the wake of the intense heat waves, drought, fires, and super-hurricanes that occurred in 1988 and 1989, interest in geoengineering has surged,{close_quotes} says Stephen H. Schneider, professor of biological science at Stanford University in Stanford, California. One scheme set forth in a National Research Council report proposes using 16-inch naval guns to fire aerosol shells into the stratosphere in hopes of offsetting {open_quotes}the radiative effects of increasing carbon dioxide,{close_quotes} Schneider says. Schneider, however, would prefer that we {open_quotes}seek measures that can cure our global {open_quote}addiction{close_quote} to polluting practices.{close_quotes} Rather than playing God, he says we should {open_quotes}stick to being human and pursue problem - solving methods currently within our grasp.{close_quotes} Such strategies include efforts to promote energy efficiency and reduce our reliance on automobiles.

  14. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    PubMed

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as "climate change," are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children's mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge.

  15. Climate change and the global malaria recession.

    PubMed

    Gething, Peter W; Smith, David L; Patil, Anand P; Tatem, Andrew J; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

    2010-05-20

    The current and potential future impact of climate change on malaria is of major public health interest. The proposed effects of rising global temperatures on the future spread and intensification of the disease, and on existing malaria morbidity and mortality rates, substantively influence global health policy. The contemporary spatial limits of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and its endemicity within this range, when compared with comparable historical maps, offer unique insights into the changing global epidemiology of malaria over the last century. It has long been known that the range of malaria has contracted through a century of economic development and disease control. Here, for the first time, we quantify this contraction and the global decreases in malaria endemicity since approximately 1900. We compare the magnitude of these changes to the size of effects on malaria endemicity proposed under future climate scenarios and associated with widely used public health interventions. Our findings have two key and often ignored implications with respect to climate change and malaria. First, widespread claims that rising mean temperatures have already led to increases in worldwide malaria morbidity and mortality are largely at odds with observed decreasing global trends in both its endemicity and geographic extent. Second, the proposed future effects of rising temperatures on endemicity are at least one order of magnitude smaller than changes observed since about 1900 and up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those that can be achieved by the effective scale-up of key control measures. Predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate.

  16. Environmental health implications of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Watson, Robert T; Patz, Jonathan; Gubler, Duane J; Parson, Edward A; Vincent, James H

    2005-09-01

    This paper reviews the background that has led to the now almost-universally held opinion in the scientific community that global climate change is occurring and is inescapably linked with anthropogenic activity. The potential implications to human health are considerable and very diverse. These include, for example, the increased direct impacts of heat and of rises in sea level, exacerbated air and water-borne harmful agents, and--associated with all the preceding--the emergence of environmental refugees. Vector-borne diseases, in particular those associated with blood-sucking arthropods such as mosquitoes, may be significantly impacted, including redistribution of some of those diseases to areas not previously affected. Responses to possible impending environmental and public health crises must involve political and socio-economic considerations, adding even greater complexity to what is already a difficult challenge. In some areas, adjustments to national and international public health practices and policies may be effective, at least in the short and medium terms. But in others, more drastic measures will be required. Environmental monitoring, in its widest sense, will play a significant role in the future management of the problem.

  17. Global fish production and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Brander, K.M.

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  18. Climate impacts on global hot spots of marine biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Ramírez, Francisco; Afán, Isabel; Davis, Lloyd S; Chiaradia, André

    2017-02-01

    Human activities drive environmental changes at scales that could potentially cause ecosystem collapses in the marine environment. We combined information on marine biodiversity with spatial assessments of the impacts of climate change to identify the key areas to prioritize for the conservation of global marine biodiversity. This process identified six marine regions of exceptional biodiversity based on global distributions of 1729 species of fish, 124 marine mammals, and 330 seabirds. Overall, these hot spots of marine biodiversity coincide with areas most severely affected by global warming. In particular, these marine biodiversity hot spots have undergone local to regional increasing water temperatures, slowing current circulation, and decreasing primary productivity. Furthermore, when we overlapped these hot spots with available industrial fishery data, albeit coarser than our estimates of climate impacts, they suggest a worrying coincidence whereby the world's richest areas for marine biodiversity are also those areas mostly affected by both climate change and industrial fishing. In light of these findings, we offer an adaptable framework for determining local to regional areas of special concern for the conservation of marine biodiversity. This has exposed the need for finer-scaled fishery data to assist in the management of global fisheries if the accumulative, but potentially preventable, effect of fishing on climate change impacts is to be minimized within areas prioritized for marine biodiversity conservation.

  19. Climate impacts on global hot spots of marine biodiversity

    PubMed Central

    Ramírez, Francisco; Afán, Isabel; Davis, Lloyd S.; Chiaradia, André

    2017-01-01

    Human activities drive environmental changes at scales that could potentially cause ecosystem collapses in the marine environment. We combined information on marine biodiversity with spatial assessments of the impacts of climate change to identify the key areas to prioritize for the conservation of global marine biodiversity. This process identified six marine regions of exceptional biodiversity based on global distributions of 1729 species of fish, 124 marine mammals, and 330 seabirds. Overall, these hot spots of marine biodiversity coincide with areas most severely affected by global warming. In particular, these marine biodiversity hot spots have undergone local to regional increasing water temperatures, slowing current circulation, and decreasing primary productivity. Furthermore, when we overlapped these hot spots with available industrial fishery data, albeit coarser than our estimates of climate impacts, they suggest a worrying coincidence whereby the world’s richest areas for marine biodiversity are also those areas mostly affected by both climate change and industrial fishing. In light of these findings, we offer an adaptable framework for determining local to regional areas of special concern for the conservation of marine biodiversity. This has exposed the need for finer-scaled fishery data to assist in the management of global fisheries if the accumulative, but potentially preventable, effect of fishing on climate change impacts is to be minimized within areas prioritized for marine biodiversity conservation. PMID:28261659

  20. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  1. Transfer payments in global climate policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landis, Florian; Bernauer, Thomas

    2012-08-01

    Many scientists and policymakers agree that large financial flows from richer to poorer countries will be necessary to reach an agreement on reducing greenhouse-gas emissions enough to keep global warming below 2°C. But the required amounts of transfer payments and justifications for them remain contested. We contribute to this debate by developing an argument for transfer payments that derives from the differences between carbon prices that different countries may set in light of two distinct criteria for appropriate levels of emission reductions. If, for reasons of cost efficiency, a globally uniform carbon price was installed, transfer payments would be required to offset these differences. We combine global climate modelling with regional welfare analysis to estimate regional carbon prices under various climate change, emissions and economic scenarios. The estimated ratios between regional carbon prices are surprisingly robust to different modelling assumptions. To the extent that burden-sharing choices in global climate policy are motivated by regional carbon prices, our analysis allows for a quantification of required transfer payments. Assuming a global carbon price of US$35 per tCO2, for example, our estimates would justify transfer payments of the order of US$15-48 billion per year.

  2. Global climate change and infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Shuman, E K

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth's atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.

  3. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    PubMed

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  4. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lúcio, F.

    2012-04-01

    Climate information at global, regional and national levels and in timeframes ranging from the past, present and future climate is fundamental for planning, sustainable development and to help organizations, countries and individuals adopt appropriate strategies to adapt to climate variability and change. Based on this recognition, in 2009, the Heads of States and Governments, Ministers and Heads of Delegation representing more than 150 countries, 34 United Nations Organizations and 36 Governmental and non-Governmental international organizations, and more than 2500 experts present at the Third World Climate Conference (WCC - 3) unanimously agreed to develop the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to strengthen the production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services. They requested that a taskforce of high-level independent advisors be appointed to prepare a report, including recommendations on the proposed elements of the Framework and the next steps for its implementation. The high-level taskforce produced a report which was endorsed by the Sixteeth World Meteorological Congress XVI in May 2011. A process for the development of the implementation plan and the governance structure of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) is well under way being led by the World Meteorological Organization within the UN system. This process involves consultations that engage a broad range of stakeholders including governments, UN and international agencies, regional organizations and specific communities of practitioners. These consultations are being conducted to facilitate discussions of key issues related to the production, availability, delivery and application of climate services in the four priority sectors of the framework (agriculture, water, health and disaster risk reduction) so that the implementation plan of the Framework is a true reflection of the aspirations of stakeholders. The GFCS is envisaged as

  5. Will climate change affect insect pheromonal communication?

    PubMed

    Boullis, Antoine; Detrain, Claire; Francis, Frédéric; Verheggen, François J

    2016-10-01

    Understanding how climate change will affect species interactions is a challenge for all branches of ecology. We have only limited understanding of how increasing temperature and atmospheric CO2 and O3 levels will affect pheromone-mediated communication among insects. Based on the existing literature, we suggest that the entire process of pheromonal communication, from production to behavioural response, is likely to be impacted by increases in temperature and modifications to atmospheric CO2 and O3 levels. We argue that insect species relying on long-range chemical signals will be most impacted, because these signals will likely suffer from longer exposure to oxidative gases during dispersal. We provide future directions for research programmes investigating the consequences of climate change on insect pheromonal communication.

  6. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  7. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover.

    PubMed

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-05

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  8. Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security

    PubMed Central

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G.; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services. PMID:23991125

  9. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    PubMed

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  10. Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wofsy, Steven C.

    2004-11-01

    Kirill Kondratyev and his colleagues present an unusual look at global change issues, with particular emphasis on quantitative models that can capture diverse aspects of the complete Earth system-vegetation, atmosphere, oceans, and human beings. The focus is on the global carbon cycle as a prime indicator of global environmental stresses. It includes some remarkably sharp, and insightful critical analysis of the Kyoto Protocol and IPCC activity, and provides citations to a large sampling of Russian-language papers mostly unknown elsewhere. The critique of current policy trends is, in many respects, the most interesting part of the book. The authors are skeptical of claims about attribution of recent climate trends to human intervention, but devastating in their demolition of the ``skeptics'' views that nothing is seriously wrong in the global environmental system. They convincingly bring to bear the most telling observations and facts to make these arguments compelling and clarifying.

  11. Effects of boreal forest vegetation on global climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonan, Gordon B.; Pollard, David; Thompson, Starley L.

    1992-10-01

    TERRESTRIAL ecosystems are thought to play an important role in determining regional and global climate1-6 one example of this is in Amazonia, where destruction of the tropical rainforest leads to warmer and drier conditions4-6. Boreal forest ecosystems may also affect climate. As temperatures rise, the amount of continental and oceanic snow and ice is reduced, so the land and ocean surfaces absorb greater amounts of solar radiation, reinforcing the warming in a 'snow/ice/albedo' feedback which results in large climate sensitivity to radiative forcings7-9. This sensitivity is moderated, however, by the presence of trees in northern latitudes, which mask the high reflectance of snow10,11, leading to warmer winter temperatures than if trees were not present12-14. Here we present results from a global climate model which show that the boreal forest warms both winter and summer air temperatures, relative to simulations in which the forest is replaced with bare ground or tundra vegetation. Our results suggest that future redistributions of boreal forest and tundra vegetation (due, for example, to extensive logging, or the influence of global warming) could initiate important climate feedbacks, which could also extend to lower latitudes.

  12. Climate-induced forest dieback: An escalating global phenomenon?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, C.D.

    2009-01-01

    The impacts of growing human populations and economies are both rapidly and directly transforming forests in many areas. However, little known are the pervasive effects of the ongoing climatic changes on the condition and status of forests around the world. Global patterns are now evident with the global tree mortality that is now above its usual mortality levels as it is affected by drought and heat-related forest stress and dieback. Thus, the possibility of an increased risk of climate-induced dieback is now being considered within many of the forests and woodlands of today. A focus will be given on the climatic water stress that is driven by both drought and warm temperatures. However, studying the trends in forest mortality and predictions has its limitations with such a number of information gaps and scientific uncertainties. First is the absence of an adequate global data on forest health status, followed by the fact that only a few tree species have the researchers an adequate quantitative knowledge with regards to its physiological thresholds of individual tree mortality from chronic or acute water stress. Lastly, the adequate knowledge of the feedback and non-linear interactions between climate-induced forest stress and other climate-related disturbance processes are lacking among the current scientists.

  13. Evaluating Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weston, T. J.

    2011-12-01

    The Global Climate Change Education initiative (GCCE) is a multi-site effort funded by the National Science Foundation to develop web resources. The objective of curricular modules is to improve content knowledge and change attitudes about climate change among undergraduate science students. The two-year evaluation of the project was conducted by Tim Weston from the University of Colorado. The small-scale evaluation first developed measures for attitude and content about climate change, and then administered the measures online. Analysis of results is ongoing. The evaluator wanted to know the attitudes and content knowledge of students after completing the modules, and if attitudes and content knowledge shifted from pre to post. An additional component of the evaluation focused on student understanding of specific global warming topics after completing the modules. Developing the test and survey involved reviewing existing measures, soliciting content from stakeholders in the grant, and then establishing a content framework that covered the important topics in climate change linked to project curricula. The pilot attitude measure contained fourteen agree/disagree items (I believe people should change their lifestyles to help minimize climate change), five self-assessment questions (How informed are you about the different causes of climate change? ), and wo previous experience questions about previous science courses taken, and actions related to climate change. The content measure contained 10 multiple-choice items asking about changes in global average temperature, the scientific methods of climate change, and the primary countries and human activities responsible for climate change. Questions were designed to reflect a mixture of general science literacy about climate change and more specific content related knowledge taught in the curricula. Both content and attitude measures were piloted with students, who answered questions using a think-aloud" interview

  14. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes.

    PubMed

    Hady, Ahmed A

    2013-05-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue.

  15. State of Climate 2011 - Global Ocean Phytoplankton

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Siegel, D. A.; Antoine, D.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; d'Andon, O. H. Fanton; Fields, E.; Franz, B. A.; Goryl, P.; Maritorena, S.; McClain, C. R.; Wang, M.; Yoder, J. A.

    2012-01-01

    Phytoplankton photosynthesis in the sun lit upper layer of the global ocean is the overwhelmingly dominant source of organic matter that fuels marine ecosystems. Phytoplankton contribute roughly half of the global (land and ocean) net primary production (NPP; gross photosynthesis minus plant respiration) and phytoplankton carbon fixation is the primary conduit through which atmospheric CO2 concentrations interact with the ocean s carbon cycle. Phytoplankton productivity depends on the availability of sunlight, macronutrients (e.g., nitrogen, phosphorous), and micronutrients (e.g., iron), and thus is sensitive to climate-driven changes in the delivery of these resources to the euphotic zone

  16. Weather anomalies affect Climate Change microblogging intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.

    2012-12-01

    There is a huge gap between the scientific consensus and public understanding of climate change. Climate change has become a political issue and a "hot" topic in mass media that only adds the complexity to forming the public opinion. Scientists operate in scientific terms, not necessarily understandable by general public, while it is common for people to perceive the latest weather anomaly as an evidence of climate change. In 1998 Hansen et al. introduced a concept of an objectively measured subjective climate change indicator, which can relate public feeling that the climate is changing to the observed meteorological parameters. We tested this concept in a simple example of a temperature-based index, which we related to microblogging activity. Microblogging is a new form of communication in which the users describe their current status in short Internet messages. Twitter (http://twitter.com), is currently the most popular microblogging platform. There are multiple reasons, why this data is particularly valuable to the researches interested in social dynamics: microblogging is widely used to publicize one's opinion with the public; has broad, diverse audience, represented by users from many countries speaking different languages; finally, Twitter contains an enormous number of data, e.g., there were 1,284,579 messages related to climate change from 585,168 users in the January-May data collection. We collected the textual data entries, containing words "climate change" or "global warming" from the 1st of January, 2012. The data was retrieved from the Internet every 20 minutes using a specially developed Python code. Using geolocational information, blog entries originating from the New York urbanized area were selected. These entries, used as a source of public opinion on climate change, were related to the surface temperature, obtained from La Guardia airport meteorological station. We defined the "significant change" in the temperature index as deviation of the

  17. Dawn of astronomy and global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, Tsuko

    2007-12-01

    The author proposes that the birth of astronomy in ancient civilizations, which took place nearly simultaneously (4000 - 5000 years ago) around the Nile, Tigris and Euphrates, Indus, and the Yellow River, was caused by the global climate change (cooling and drying) that started about 5000 years ago after the hypsithermal (high-temperature) period. It is also pointed out that a few names of Twenty-Four Qi's appearing in old Chinese calendars are remnants of the calm climate in the hypsithermal period. It is discussed that numerous meteorological records seen in divination inscriptions on bones and tortoise-shells excavated at the capital of the ancient Yin (Shang) dynasty suggest occurrence of the climatic cooling and drying at that time and this change triggered spawning the early Chinese astronomy.

  18. Stormy Weather: 101 Solutions to Global Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dauncey, Guy

    This document presents 101 solutions to global climate change. These solutions are actions that are well suited to every level of society. This book creates awareness about global climate change. The history of Earth and the greenhouse effect are discussed, and explanations and solutions to global climate change are provided including traveling…

  19. Using Updated Climate Accounting to Slow Global Warming Before 2035

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, T.

    2015-12-01

    The current and projected worsening of climate impacts make clear the urgency of limiting the global mean temperature to 2°C over preindustrial levels. But while mitigation policy today may slow global warming at the end of the century, it will not keep global warming within these limits. This failure arises in large part from the climate accounting system used to inform this policy, which does not factor in several scientific findings from the last two decades, including: The urgent need to slow global warming before 2035. This can postpone the time the +1.5°C limit is passed, and is the only way to avoid the most serious long-term climate disruptions. That while it may mitigate warming by the end of the century, reducing emissions of CO2 alone, according to UNEP/WMO[1], will do "little to mitigate warming over the next 20-30 years," and "may temporarily enhance near-term warming as sulfate [cooling] is reduced." That the only emissions reductions that can slow warming before 2035 are focused on short-lived climate pollutants. A small increase in current mitigation funding could fund these projects, the most promising of which target emissions in regional climate "hot spots" like the Arctic and India.[2] To ensure policies can effectively slow global warming before 2035, a new climate accounting system is needed. Such an updated system is being standardized in the USA,[3] and has been proposed for use in ISO standards. The key features of this updated system are: consideration of all climate pollutants and their multi-faceted climate effects; use of time horizons which prioritize mitigation of near-term warming; a consistent and accurate accounting for "biogenic" CO2; protocols ensuring that new scientific findings are incorporated; and a distinct accounting for emissions affecting regional "hot spots". This accounting system also considers environmental impacts outside of climate change, a feature necessary to identify "win-win" projects with climate benefits

  20. Global fish production and climate change.

    PubMed

    Brander, K M

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of approximately 160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but we have low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are governed by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipitation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the principal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  1. Pliocene oceanic seaways and global climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karas, Cyrus; Nürnberg, Dirk; Bahr, André; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Herrle, Jens O.; Tiedemann, Ralf; Demenocal, Peter B.

    2017-01-01

    Tectonically induced changes in oceanic seaways had profound effects on global and regional climate during the Late Neogene. The constriction of the Central American Seaway reached a critical threshold during the early Pliocene ~4.8–4 million years (Ma) ago. Model simulations indicate the strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) with a signature warming response in the Northern Hemisphere and cooling in the Southern Hemisphere. Subsequently, between ~4–3 Ma, the constriction of the Indonesian Seaway impacted regional climate and might have accelerated the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation. We here present Pliocene Atlantic interhemispheric sea surface temperature and salinity gradients (deduced from foraminiferal Mg/Ca and stable oxygen isotopes, δ18O) in combination with a recently published benthic stable carbon isotope (δ13C) record from the southernmost extent of North Atlantic Deep Water to reconstruct gateway-related changes in the AMOC mode. After an early reduction of the AMOC at ~5.3 Ma, we show in agreement with model simulations of the impacts of Central American Seaway closure a strengthened AMOC with a global climate signature. During ~3.8–3 Ma, we suggest a weakening of the AMOC in line with the global cooling trend, with possible contributions from the constriction of the Indonesian Seaway.

  2. Pliocene oceanic seaways and global climate.

    PubMed

    Karas, Cyrus; Nürnberg, Dirk; Bahr, André; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Herrle, Jens O; Tiedemann, Ralf; deMenocal, Peter B

    2017-01-05

    Tectonically induced changes in oceanic seaways had profound effects on global and regional climate during the Late Neogene. The constriction of the Central American Seaway reached a critical threshold during the early Pliocene ~4.8-4 million years (Ma) ago. Model simulations indicate the strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) with a signature warming response in the Northern Hemisphere and cooling in the Southern Hemisphere. Subsequently, between ~4-3 Ma, the constriction of the Indonesian Seaway impacted regional climate and might have accelerated the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation. We here present Pliocene Atlantic interhemispheric sea surface temperature and salinity gradients (deduced from foraminiferal Mg/Ca and stable oxygen isotopes, δ(18)O) in combination with a recently published benthic stable carbon isotope (δ(13)C) record from the southernmost extent of North Atlantic Deep Water to reconstruct gateway-related changes in the AMOC mode. After an early reduction of the AMOC at ~5.3 Ma, we show in agreement with model simulations of the impacts of Central American Seaway closure a strengthened AMOC with a global climate signature. During ~3.8-3 Ma, we suggest a weakening of the AMOC in line with the global cooling trend, with possible contributions from the constriction of the Indonesian Seaway.

  3. Pliocene oceanic seaways and global climate

    PubMed Central

    Karas, Cyrus; Nürnberg, Dirk; Bahr, André; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Herrle, Jens O.; Tiedemann, Ralf; deMenocal, Peter B.

    2017-01-01

    Tectonically induced changes in oceanic seaways had profound effects on global and regional climate during the Late Neogene. The constriction of the Central American Seaway reached a critical threshold during the early Pliocene ~4.8–4 million years (Ma) ago. Model simulations indicate the strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) with a signature warming response in the Northern Hemisphere and cooling in the Southern Hemisphere. Subsequently, between ~4–3 Ma, the constriction of the Indonesian Seaway impacted regional climate and might have accelerated the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation. We here present Pliocene Atlantic interhemispheric sea surface temperature and salinity gradients (deduced from foraminiferal Mg/Ca and stable oxygen isotopes, δ18O) in combination with a recently published benthic stable carbon isotope (δ13C) record from the southernmost extent of North Atlantic Deep Water to reconstruct gateway-related changes in the AMOC mode. After an early reduction of the AMOC at ~5.3 Ma, we show in agreement with model simulations of the impacts of Central American Seaway closure a strengthened AMOC with a global climate signature. During ~3.8–3 Ma, we suggest a weakening of the AMOC in line with the global cooling trend, with possible contributions from the constriction of the Indonesian Seaway. PMID:28054561

  4. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1992-01-01

    Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change'' is concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany CO{sub 2}-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions' exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. Because the North Atlantic is the source of much of the global ocean's reservoir of deep water, and because this deep water could sequester large amounts of anthropogenically produced Co{sub 2}, changes in the rate of deep-water production are important to future climates. Since deep-water production is controlled, in part, by the annual cycle of the atmospheric forcing of the North Atlantic, and since this forcing depends strongly on both hydrological and thermal processes as well as the windstress, there is the potential for feedback between the relatively short-term response of the atmosphere to changing radiative forcing and the longer-term processes in the oceans. Work over the past 12 months has proceeded in several directions.

  5. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1992-01-01

    This report discusses research activities conducted during the period 15 January 1992--14 December 1992. Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change is concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany C0[sub 2]-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions' exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. Because the North Atlantic is the source of much of the global ocean's reservoir of deep water, and because this deep water could sequester large amounts of anthropogenically produced C0[sub 2], changes in the rate of deep-water production are important to future climates. Since deep-water Production is controlled, in part, by the annual cycle of the atmospheric forcing of the North Atlantic, and since this forcing depends strongly on both hydrological and thermal processes as well as the windstress, there is the potential for feedback between the relatively short-term response of the atmosphere to changing radiative forcing and the longer-term processes in the oceans. Work over the past 11 months has proceeded according to the continuation discussion of last January and several new results have arisen.

  6. Climate Discovery: NCAR Online Education Climate and Global Change Professional Development Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. L.; Johnson, R. M.; Foster, S.; Henderson, S.; Gardiner, L.; Russell, R.; Meymaris, K.; Hatheway, B.

    2007-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is offering middle and high school teachers an opportunity to learn about the science of climate and how current research is advancing our understanding through Climate Discovery, a series of three online professional development courses. The goals of the Climate Discovery online course series are to provide climate science content relevant to National Science Education Standards, to share easy to implement, hands-on classroom activities that facilitate student understanding of climate and global change, and to provide a broad overview of Earth system science to educator-leaders who are teaching sciences at the middle and high school levels. The first course in the series, Introduction to Earth's Climate, explores climate science and serves as the introduction to the Climate Discovery series. The second course, Earth System Science: A Climate Change Perspective, explores Earth as a system from the perspective of climate and global change, describing the interactions between the various parts of the Earth system, and how they all affect our climate. The final course, Understanding Climate Change Today, provides an opportunity to learn about the impacts of global change as well as exploring how climate models are developed and used to understand likely scenarios of future climate and how current scientific research is improving the quality of climate predictions. The online courses, instructed by science education specialists, combine information about current research and modeling efforts with classroom-tested science inquiry activities. The online course experience features a high level of interactivity, tools for assessment, and effective community-building interactive technologies. We encourage teachers immediately apply their learning by enriching their existing standards-aligned science curriculum, bringing the science of Earth's climate to their students. In this presentation, course developers and

  7. The psychological impacts of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Doherty, Thomas J; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological impacts: direct (e.g., acute or traumatic effects of extreme weather events and a changed environment); indirect (e.g., threats to emotional well-being based on observation of impacts and concern or uncertainty about future risks); and psychosocial (e.g., chronic social and community effects of heat, drought, migrations, and climate-related conflicts, and postdisaster adjustment). Responses include providing psychological interventions in the wake of acute impacts and reducing the vulnerabilities contributing to their severity; promoting emotional resiliency and empowerment in the context of indirect impacts; and acting at systems and policy levels to address broad psychosocial impacts. The challenge of climate change calls for increased ecological literacy, a widened ethical responsibility, investigations into a range of psychological and social adaptations, and an allocation of resources and training to improve psychologists' competency in addressing climate change-related impacts.

  8. Global climate change: the quantifiable sustainability challenge.

    PubMed

    Princiotta, Frank T; Loughlin, Daniel H

    2014-09-01

    Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and US. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues. Implications: This paper lays out the case that mitigating the

  9. Global climate change and infectious diseases

    SciTech Connect

    Shope, R. )

    1991-12-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholera is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help as to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. 12 refs., 1 tab.

  10. Global climate change and infectious diseases.

    PubMed Central

    Shope, R

    1991-01-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholerae is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help us to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. PMID:1820262

  11. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980.

    PubMed

    Lobell, David B; Schlenker, Wolfram; Costa-Roberts, Justin

    2011-07-29

    Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. We found that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends from 1980 to 2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability. Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8 and 5.5%, respectively, relative to a counterfactual without climate trends. For soybeans and rice, winners and losers largely balanced out. Climate trends were large enough in some countries to offset a significant portion of the increases in average yields that arose from technology, carbon dioxide fertilization, and other factors.

  12. Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobell, David B.; Schlenker, Wolfram; Costa-Roberts, Justin

    2011-07-01

    Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. We found that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends from 1980 to 2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability. Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8 and 5.5%, respectively, relative to a counterfactual without climate trends. For soybeans and rice, winners and losers largely balanced out. Climate trends were large enough in some countries to offset a significant portion of the increases in average yields that arose from technology, carbon dioxide fertilization, and other factors.

  13. NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian

  14. Global Climate Models of the Terrestrial Planets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forget, F.; Lebonnois, S.

    On the basis of the global climate models (GCMs) originally developed for Earth, several teams around the world have been able to develop GCMs for the atmospheres of the other terrestrial bodies in our solar system: Venus, Mars, Titan, Triton, and Pluto. In spite of the apparent complexity of climate systems and meteorology, GCMs are based on a limited number of equations. In practice, relatively complete climate simulators can be developed by combining a few components such as a dynamical core, a radiative transfer solver, a parameterization of turbulence and convection, a thermal ground model, and a volatile phase change code, possibly completed by a few specific schemes. It can be shown that many of these GCM components are "universal" so that we can envisage building realistic climate models for any kind of terrestrial planets and atmospheres that we can imagine. Such a tool is useful for conducting scientific investigations on the possible climates of terrestrial extrasolar planets, or to study past environments in the solar system. The ambition behind the development of GCMs is high: The ultimate goal is to build numerical simulators based only on universal physical or chemical equations, yet able to reproduce or predict all the available observations on a given planet, without any ad hoc forcing. In other words, we aim to virtually create in our computers planets that "behave" exactly like the actual planets themselves. In reality, of course, nature is always more complex than expected, but we learn a lot in the process. In this chapter we detail some lessons learned in the solar system: In many cases, GCMs work. They have been able to simulate many aspects of planetary climates without difficulty. In some cases, however, problems have been encountered, sometimes simply because a key process has been forgotten in the model or is not yet correctly parameterized, but also because sometimes the climate regime seems to be result of a subtle balance between

  15. Land Cover / Climate Interaction at Global and Regional Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Land cover and climate interact at regional and global scales through biophysical, biogeochemical, and ecological processes. Land cover change (LCC) affects regional climate through impacts on surface albedo and surface net radiation, on the partitioning of available energy between sensible and latent heat fluxes, on the atmospheric heating, moisture flux convergence and circulation, and the partitioning of rainfall between evaporation and runoff. Meanwhile, the climate variability and change also affect the LCC. Based on historical anthropogenic land cover change data from 1948-2005, numerical experiments that were designed to test its impact using general circulation models indicate that the LCC enhances the global warming in past half century. This is because after land degradation, reduction of evaporation is dominant, leading to surface warming. The reduction of net radiation due to high surface albedo plays a secondary role. Meanwhile, its impact on the regional monsoon is significant. The produced monsoon rainfall anomaly is not only limited within the land degradation area but extend to much large area through its interaction with the atmospheric circulations. The warming climate and climate variability also affect the vegetation distribution. For instance, with a coupled biophysical and dynamic vegetation model forced by the observed meteorological data, the North America leaf area index (LAI) shows an increasing trend after the 1970s in responding to warming. Meanwhile, the effects of the severe drought during 1987-1992 and the last decade in the southwestern U.S. on vegetation are also evident from the simulated and satellite-derived LAIs. The land covers in some parts of North America also show substantial changes. Evaluations of these simulations using satellite data are crucial. The critical issues in applying satellite data for LCC studies are also discussed.

  16. The gender perspective in climate change and global health

    PubMed Central

    Preet, Raman; Nilsson, Maria; Schumann, Barbara; Evengård, Birgitta

    2010-01-01

    Background Population health is a primary goal of sustainable development. United Nations international conferences like the Beijing Platform for Action have highlighted the key role of women in ensuring sustainable development. In the context of climate change, women are affected the most while they display knowledge and skills to orient themselves toward climate adaptation activities within their societies. Objective To investigate how the gender perspective is addressed as an issue in research and policy-making concerning climate change and global health. Methods A broad literature search was undertaken using the databases Pubmed and Web of Science to explore the terms ‘climate change,’ ‘health,’ ‘gender,’ and ‘policy.’ Climate change and health-related policy documents of the World Health Organization (WHO) and National Communications and National Adaptation Programs of Action reports submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of selected countries were studied. Assessment guidelines to review these reports were developed from this study's viewpoint. Results The database search results showed almost no articles when the four terms were searched together. The WHO documents lacked a gender perspective in their approach and future recommendations on climate policies. The reviewed UN reports were also neutral to gender perspective except one of the studied documents. Conclusion Despite recognizing the differential effects of climate change on health of women and men as a consequence of complex social contexts and adaptive capacities, the study finds gender to be an underrepresented or non-existing variable both in research and studied policy documents in the field of climate change and health. PMID:21160554

  17. The impacts of climate change on global irrigation water requirements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change tends to affect the irrigation water requirement of current irrigated agricultural land, and also changes the water availability for current rain-fed land by the end of this century. We use the most up-to-date climatic and crop datasets (e.g., global irrigated/rain-fed crop areas and grid level crop growing calendar (Portmann, Siebert and Döll, 2010, Global Biogeochemical Cycles 24)) to evaluate the requirements of currently irrigated land and the water deficit for rain-fed land for all major crops under current and projected climate. Six general circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios, A1B & B1, are assembled using two methods, the Simple Average Method (SAM) and Root Mean Square Error Ensemble Method (RMSEMM), to deal with the GCM regional variability. It is found that the global irrigation requirement and the water deficit are both going to increase significantly under all scenarios, particularly under the A1B emission scenario. For example, the projected irrigation requirement is expected to increase by about 2500 million m3 for wheat, 3200 million m3 for maize and another 3300 million m3 for rice. At the same time, the water deficit for current rain-fed cropland will be widened by around 3000, 4000, 2100 million m3 for wheat, maize and rice respectively. Regional analysis is conducted for Africa, China, Europe, India, South America and the United States. It is found that the U.S. may expect the greatest rise in irrigation requirements for wheat and maize, while the South America may suffer the greatest increase for rice. In addition, Africa and the U.S. may face a larger water deficit for both wheat and maize on rain-fed land, and South America just for rice. In summary, climate change is likely to bring severe challenges for irrigation systems and make global water shortage even worse by the end of this century. These pressures will call for extensive adaptation measures. The change in crop water requirements and availability

  18. Atmospheric and oceanographic research review, 1978. [global weather, ocean/air interactions, and climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    Research activities related to global weather, ocean/air interactions, and climate are reported. The global weather research is aimed at improving the assimilation of satellite-derived data in weather forecast models, developing analysis/forecast models that can more fully utilize satellite data, and developing new measures of forecast skill to properly assess the impact of satellite data on weather forecasting. The oceanographic research goal is to understand and model the processes that determine the general circulation of the oceans, focusing on those processes that affect sea surface temperature and oceanic heat storage, which are the oceanographic variables with the greatest influence on climate. The climate research objective is to support the development and effective utilization of space-acquired data systems in climate forecast models and to conduct sensitivity studies to determine the affect of lower boundary conditions on climate and predictability studies to determine which global climate features can be modeled either deterministically or statistically.

  19. Climate change: impacts on and implications for global health.

    PubMed

    St Louis, Michael E; Hess, Jeremy J

    2008-11-01

    The most severe consequences of climate change will accrue to the poorest people in the poorest countries, despite their own negligible contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. In recent years, global health efforts in those same countries have grown dramatically. However, the emerging scientific consensus about climate change has not yet had much influence on the routine practice and strategies of global health. We review here the anticipated types and global distribution of health impacts of climate change, discuss relevant aspects of current global interventions for health in low-income countries, and consider potential elements of a framework for appropriately and efficiently mainstreaming global climate change-mitigation and -adaptation strategies into the ongoing enterprise of global health. We propose a collaborative learning initiative involving four areas: (1) increased awareness among current global health practitioners of climate change and its potential impacts for the most disadvantaged, (2) strengthening of the evidence base, (3) incorporation now of climate change-mitigation and -adaptation concerns into design of ongoing global health programs, and (4) alignment of current global health program targets and methods with larger frameworks for climate change and sustainable development. The great vulnerability to climate change of populations reached by current global health efforts should prompt all concerned with global health to take a leading role in advocating for climate change mitigation in their own countries.

  20. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  1. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santer, B.

    2009-12-01

    The first Key Finding from the recent USGCRP report “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States” is: 1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced. Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. This statement is based on a combination of observational, theoretical and model based analyses and are a consensus opinion of the report’s Lead Author team. The scientific rationale supporting this consensus will be summarized.

  2. Globally Gridded Satellite observations for climate studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knapp, K.R.; Ansari, S.; Bain, C.L.; Bourassa, M.A.; Dickinson, M.J.; Funk, C.; Helms, C.N.; Hennon, C.C.; Holmes, C.D.; Huffman, G.J.; Kossin, J.P.; Lee, H.-T.; Loew, A.; Magnusdottir, G.

    2011-01-01

    Geostationary satellites have provided routine, high temporal resolution Earth observations since the 1970s. Despite the long period of record, use of these data in climate studies has been limited for numerous reasons, among them that no central archive of geostationary data for all international satellites exists, full temporal and spatial resolution data are voluminous, and diverse calibration and navigation formats encumber the uniform processing needed for multisatellite climate studies. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) set the stage for overcoming these issues by archiving a subset of the full-resolution geostationary data at ~10-km resolution at 3-hourly intervals since 1983. Recent efforts at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center to provide convenient access to these data include remapping the data to a standard map projection, recalibrating the data to optimize temporal homogeneity, extending the record of observations back to 1980, and reformatting the data for broad public distribution. The Gridded Satellite (GridSat) dataset includes observations from the visible, infrared window, and infrared water vapor channels. Data are stored in Network Common Data Format (netCDF) using standards that permit a wide variety of tools and libraries to process the data quickly and easily. A novel data layering approach, together with appropriate satellite and file metadata, allows users to access GridSat data at varying levels of complexity based on their needs. The result is a climate data record already in use by the meteorological community. Examples include reanalysis of tropical cyclones, studies of global precipitation, and detection and tracking of the intertropical convergence zone.

  3. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karl, T. R.

    2009-12-01

    This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

  4. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  5. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    SciTech Connect

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  6. Effect of global climate on termites population. Effect of termites population on global climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sapunov, Valentin

    2010-05-01

    The global climate is under control of factors having both earth and space origin. Global warming took place from XVII century till 1997. Then global cold snap began. This dynamics had effect on global distribution of some animals including termites. Direct human effect on climate is not significant. At the same time man plays role of trigger switching on significant biosphere processes controlling climate. The transformation of marginal lands, development of industry and building, stimulated increase of termite niche and population. Termite role in green house gases production increases too. It may have regular effect on world climate. The dry wood is substrate for metabolism of termites living under symbiosis with bacteria Hypermastigina (Flagellata). The use of dry wood by humanity increased from 18 *108 ton in XVIII to 9*109 to the middle of XX century. Then use of wood decreased because of a new technology development. Hence termite population is controlled by microevolution depending on dry wood and climate dynamics. Producing by them green house gases had reciprocal effect on world climate. It is possible to describe and predict dynamic of termite population using methods of mathematical ecology and analogs with other well studied insects (Colorado potatoes beetle, Chrisomelid beetle Zygogramma and so on). Reclamation of new ecological niche for such insects as termites needs 70 - 75 years. That is delay of population dynamics in relation to dynamics of dry wood production. General principles of population growth were described by G.Gause (1934) and some authors of the end of XX century. This works and analogs with other insects suggest model of termite distribution during XXI century. The extremum of population and its green house gases production would be gotten during 8 - 10 years. Then the number of specimens and sum biological mass would be stabilized and decreased. Termite gas production is not priority for climate regulation, but it has importance as

  7. Climate change and global agriculture: Recent findings and issues

    SciTech Connect

    Reilly, J.

    1995-08-01

    This paper (a) reviews existing findings on the global impacts of climate change on agriculture, (b) identifies limitations of these findings, and (c) discusses three issues of interest on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The three issues are as follows: regional effects versus global efficiency: the issue of hunger; climate change, agriculture and economic development; cost and disruption of adaptation to climate change. 45 refs., 3 tabs.

  8. Climate Change: U.S.-China Partnership for Global Security

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-03-01

    that “ global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.”7 Apposing arguments regarding climate change are not surprising... Warming CLASSIFICATION: Unclassified China has capitalized on economic globalization to emerge as one of the largest industrial nations, and...Climate Change (IPCC), the impact of global warming on planet earth depends on the extent of human adaptation to climate change and the rate of

  9. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process.

  10. Global climate drives southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Leaper, Russell; Cooke, Justin; Trathan, Phil; Reid, Keith; Rowntree, Victoria; Payne, Roger

    2006-06-22

    Sea surface temperature (SST) time-series from the southwest Atlantic and the El Niño 4 region in the western Pacific were compared to an index of annual calving success of the southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) breeding in Argentina. There was a strong relationship between right whale calving output and SST anomalies at South Georgia in the autumn of the previous year and also with mean El Niño 4 SST anomalies delayed by 6 years. These results extend similar observations from other krill predators and show clear linkages between global climate signals and the biological processes affecting whale population dynamics.

  11. Climate Change in New England | Energy and Global Climate ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2017-04-10

    EPA Region 1's Energy and Climate Unit and Oceans and Coastal Unit provide information and technical assistance on climate change impacts and adaptation, resilience and preparedness to climate disruptions

  12. Using Immersion to teach Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sumners, C. T.; Handron, K.; Reiff, P. H.; Law, C. C.

    2004-12-01

    Students are increasingly jaded to programs that preach, and museums are increasingly finding it difficult to attract students who can retrieve information quickly from the internet or cable TV. A new medium of immersive theater can now engulf the viewer in the subject, bringing a novel view to the exciting new data sets and images now available. By telling a compelling story with characters they can identify with, global climate change can be experienced and its effects brought home in a dramatic and effective way. We have developed several shows highlighting climate change (Powers of Time, Secrets of the Dead Sea), and are developing new shows (Earth's Wild Ride, Earth in the Balance) which can be used to take the visitor into the past or into the future. Clips from the shows and evidence of their effectiveness as an educational tool for Earth science will be shown. If possible, our new portable dome system will be set up in the poster hall for longer live demos of our shows.

  13. Global Seasonal Influenza Epidemics and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamerius, James

    2013-04-01

    Recent evidence suggests that low specific humidity conditions facilitate the transmission of the influenza virus in temperate regions and result in annual winter epidemics. However, this relationship does not account for the epidemiology of influenza in tropical and subtropical regions where epidemics often occur during the rainy season or transmit year-round without a well-defined season. We assessed the role of specific humidity and other local climatic variables on influenza virus seasonality by modeling epidemiological and climatic information from 78 study sites sampled globally. We substantiated that there are two types of environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: "cold-dry" and "humid-rainy". For sites where monthly average specific humidity or temperature decreases below thresholds of approximately 11-12 g/kg and 18-21 °C during the year, influenza activity peaks during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter) when specific humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. For sites where specific humidity and temperature do not decrease below these thresholds, seasonal influenza activity is more likely to peak in months when average precipitation totals are maximal and greater than 150 mm per month. Based on these findings, we develop Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) models forced by daily weather observations of specific humidity and precipitation that simulate the diversity of seasonal influenza signals worldwide.

  14. Ad hoc committee on global climate issues: Annual report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gerhard, L.C.; Hanson, B.M.B.

    2000-01-01

    The AAPG Ad Hoc Committee on Global Climate Issues has studied the supposition of human-induced climate change since the committee's inception in January 1998. This paper details the progress and findings of the committee through June 1999. At that time there had been essentially no geologic input into the global climate change debate. The following statements reflect the current state of climate knowledge from the geologic perspective as interpreted by the majority of the committee membership. The committee recognizes that new data could change its conclusions. The earth's climate is constantly changing owing to natural variability in earth processes. Natural climate variability over recent geological time is greater than reasonable estimates of potential human-induced greenhouse gas changes. Because no tool is available to test the supposition of human-induced climate change and the range of natural variability is so great, there is no discernible human influence on global climate at this time.

  15. Climate Change and Global Food Security: Food Access, Utilization, and the US Food System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, M. E.; Antle, J. M.; Backlund, P. W.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Walsh, M.; Ammann, C. M.; Attavanich, W.; Barrett, C. B.; Bellemare, M. F.; Dancheck, V.; Funk, C.; Grace, K.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Jiang, H.; Maletta, H.; Mata, T.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Ojima, D. S.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.

    2015-12-01

    This paper will summarize results from the USDA report entitled 'Climate change, Global Food Security and the U.S. Food system'. The report focuses on the impact of climate change on global food security, defined as "when all people at all times have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life". The assessment brought together authors and contributors from twenty federal, academic, nongovernmental, intergovernmental, and private organizations in four countries to identify climate change effects on food security through 2100, and analyze the U.S.'s likely connections with that world. This talk will describe how climate change will likely affect food access and food utilization, and summarize how the U.S. food system contributes to global food security, and will be affected by climate change.

  16. Global climate change crosses state boundaries

    SciTech Connect

    Changnon, S.A.

    1996-12-31

    The hot, dry summer of 1988 brought the specter of global warming a bit too close for comfort. {open_quotes}Scorching heat, not scientific models, attracted media attention,{close_quotes} says Stanley A. Changnon, senior scientist with the Illinois State Water Survey in Champaign, Illinois. Rising temperatures in the late 1980`s prompted individual states to begin to take action to curb greenhouse-gas emissions. A 1990 report by the National Governors Association identified two guiding principles for addressing climate change issues. {open_quotes}First, that energy policy must be at the center of any efforts to control greenhouse-gas emissions. Second, that state can...restrict emissions through state policies related to public utilities, land use, transportation, and even taxation,{close_quotes} Changnon says. Even if concerns for global warming prove to be overblown, states decided to act for broader economic and environmental reasons. Such initiatives not only save money, but they improve air quality and leave the nation more energy independent,{close_quotes} Changnon says.

  17. Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change.

    PubMed

    Ovalle-Rivera, Oriana; Läderach, Peter; Bunn, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Schroth, Götz

    2015-01-01

    Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.

  18. Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Ovalle-Rivera, Oriana; Läderach, Peter; Bunn, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Schroth, Götz

    2015-01-01

    Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee. PMID:25875230

  19. Regional downscaling of global climate runs for Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granerød, M.; Mesquita, M. D.; Basnayake, S.

    2011-12-01

    Nepal is a vulnerable country to changes in climate. This is mainly due to its dependency on water resources from the Himalayas. There is evidence of significant warming in Nepal, with an average trend of around +0.06 degrees Celsius per year. Studies have shown that the warming rates are higher in higher altitudes. Such temperature trend will have an impact on the melting of the glaciers and consequently on Nepal. Precipitation has also been observed to have increased, but not at the same magnitude as temperature. The water supply is affected by more unpredictable precipitation that can lead to droughts and shorter heavy rainfall. Future projections can give an indication whether these factors will affect river runoff, which can have large impacts on agriculture and in other sectors. Global Climate Models (GCMs) have a coarse resolution and limitations in the numerical and in the physical treatment. More detailed climate datasets are needed to produce climate projections for countries like Nepal. In this study, we use the climate version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (clWRF3.1.1, developed at the University of Cantabria, Spain), which is a regional climate model (RCM), to provide a more detailed description of future climate scenarios in Nepal. The Atmospheric General Circulation Model, ARPEGE, has been used to provide lateral boundary conditions for the model evaluation. A control simulation from 1970 to 2000, and 4 future climate scenario runs from 2030 to 2060 are created based on these data. The parent domain has a horizontal grid resolution of 48 km, covering the area 68 to 100 degrees East and 1 degree South to 38 degree North. The nested domain has a horizontal grid resolution of 12 km, covering the area 79 to 90 degree East and 25 to 32 degree North. Both domains are run with 37 vertical levels reaching up to 50 hPa. In the clWRF setup, the microphysical scheme used is the WRF Single-Moment 3-class scheme and the cumulus option is the Grell

  20. SubArctic Oceans and Global Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhines, P. B.

    2004-12-01

    The passages connecting the Arctic Ocean with the Atlantic and Pacific, and their `mediterranean' basins, are focal points for the global meridional overturning circulation, and all of the climate impacts which this implies. It is also a difficult region to model accurately: the sensitivity of climate models to subpolar ocean dynamics is well-known. In this talk we stress the need to instrument and analyze the subpolar oceans, and some examples of sustained observations developing there. Results from satellite altimetry, recent Seaglider deployments from Greenland, and mooring arrays will be described. In particular we show the first Seaglider sections of hydrography and bio-optical profiles of the Labrador Sea (one of the first extended deployments of this autonomous undersea vehicle); we discuss the decline during the 1990s of the subpolar gyre circulation of the Atlantic from its great strength during the positive NAO period of the early 1990s, and its relevance to the salinity decline observed over a much longer period; we review observations of the flows at the Iceland-Scotland Ridge and Davis Strait, argued in terms of volume transport plots on the potential temperature/salinity plane; we display maps of the `convection resistance' (related to dynamic height) and its sensitivity to surface low-salinity water masses and their partition between shallow continental shelves and deep ocean. This is a particularly exciting time for climate studies, with fundamental properties of the atmosphere-ocean circulation under debate, even before one considers natural and human-induced variability. Is the four-decade long decline in subArctic salinity the result of increased hydrologic cycle, increased or altered Arctic outflow to the Atlantic, or slowing of the subpolar circulation? Is the basic intensity of the MOC more dependent on high-latitude buoyancy forcing, or wind- or tide-driven mixing in the upwelling branch, or possibly wind-stress at high latitude? Is the

  1. Studies and research on global climate change produced in Dobrogea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serban, Cristina; Maftei, Carmen; Zagan, Sabina; Chitu, Greti; Zagan, Remus

    2013-04-01

    Studies and research on global climate change produced in Dobrogea Atmospheric phenomena risk, high acuity products in recent years compels us to a more careful study of the phenomena caused by global climate change produced in Dobrogea. Risk atmospheric phenomena and quick release is characterized by extremely high energies that are catastrophic, sudden and hard to prognosis in current contexts. In our paper we clarify the concept of aridity, and discusses related concepts including indices of aridity, and their influence on Dobrogea area and soil features including climatic water deficit. The drought impact is evaluated by calculating different indices of drought from meteorological and hydrological point of view. In Dobrogea, the phenomena mentioned already manifested by hail, violent storms, tornadoes, heavy precipitation, rainfall, manifested in short periods, producing floods and landslides. Sudden changes, increased environmental air parameters (temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure) creates, in turn, serious human discomfort and other negative effects of socio-economic. These "risk events" is frequently interleaves severe periods of drought, completing the sequence of natural disasters are difficult to predict. Another characteristic of desertification in Dobrogea is eroding - cruel impoverishment of the soil created by strong winds and violent rain causes strong erosion. Dust storms and sand pits desert areas severely affects state land, forests and degrade air quality breathable, cruelly destroying into ozone. Summarizing, the objective of this paper is to present some results using drought indices and a Grid computing application, which estimates the land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at regional scale.

  2. Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Price, Colin; Rind, David

    1994-01-01

    The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

  3. Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change.

    PubMed

    Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang; Liang, Shunlin; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Kaicheng; Tang, Bijian; Zhao, Wenqian

    2015-09-01

    Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P < 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time-lag effects is quite

  4. Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

    This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

  5. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1996-10-01

    This report discusses results from the project entitled Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change. Results are discussed in three sections related to the development of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), surface forcing of the ocean by the atmosphere, and experiments with the MICOM related to the problem of the ocean`s response to global climate change. It will require the use of a global, coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model to quantify the feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere associated with climate changes. The results presented here do provide guidance for such studies in the future.

  6. Biogeophysical effects of CO2-fertilization on global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C; Phillips, T J

    2006-04-26

    CO{sub 2}-fertilization affects plant growth, which modifies surface physical properties, altering the surface albedo, and fluxes of sensible and latent heat. We investigate how such CO{sub 2}-fertilization effects on vegetation and surface properties would affect the climate system. Using a global three-dimensional climate-carbon model that simulates vegetation dynamics, we compare two multi-century simulations: a ''Control'' simulation with no emissions, and a ''Physiol-noGHG'' simulation where physiological changes occur as a result of prescribed CO{sub 2} emissions, but where CO{sub 2}-induced greenhouse warming is not included. In our simulations, CO{sub 2}-fertilization produces warming; we obtain an annual- and global-mean warming of about 0.65 K (and land-only warming of 1.4 K) after 430 years. This century-scale warming is mostly due to a decreased surface albedo associated with the expansion of the Northern Hemisphere boreal forests. On decadal time scales, the CO{sub 2} uptake by afforestation should produce a cooling effect that exceeds this albedo-based warming; but if the forests remain in place, the CO{sub 2}-enhanced-greenhouse effect would diminish as the ocean equilibrates with the atmosphere, whereas the albedo effect would persist. Thus, on century time scales, there is the prospect for net warming from CO{sub 2}-fertilization of the land biosphere. Further study is needed to confirm and better quantify our results.

  7. International Peer Collaboration to Learn about Global Climate Changes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Korsager, Majken; Slotta, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is not local; it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today's increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently,…

  8. Assessing Elementary Science Methods Students' Understanding about Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lambert, Julie L.; Lindgren, Joan; Bleicher, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change, referred to as climate change in this paper, has become an important planetary issue, and given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. Teachers need to understand the natural…

  9. Does Globalization Affect Human Well-Being?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsai, Ming-Chang

    2007-01-01

    The prevailing theorizing of globalization's influence of human well-being suggests to assess both the favorable and unfavorable outcomes. This study formulates a dialectical model, adopts a comprehensive globalization measure and uses a three-wave panel data during 1980-2000 to empirically test direct and indirect effects of global flows' human…

  10. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Lehmann, Johannes C.; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-08-10

    Production of biochar (the carbon-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass), in combination with its storage in soils, has been suggested as a means to abate anthropogenic climate change, while simultaneously increasing crop yields. The climate mitigation potential stems primarily from the highly recalcitrant nature of biochar, which slows the rate at which photosynthetically fixed carbon is returned to the atmosphere. Significant uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity, and sustainability of biochar for carbon capture and storage when scaled to the global level. Previous estimates, based on simple assumptions, vary widely. Here we show that, subject to strict environmental and modest economic constraints on biomass procurement and biochar production methods, annual net emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O could be reduced by 1.1 - 1.9 Pg CO2-C equivalent (CO2-Ce)/yr (7 - 13% of current anthropogenic CO2-Ce emissions; 1Pg = 1 Gt). Over one century, cumulative net emissions of these gases could be reduced by 72-140 Pg CO2-Ce. The lower end of this range uses currently untapped residues and wastes; the upper end requires substantial alteration to global biomass management, but would not endanger food security, habitat or soil conservation. Half the avoided emissions are due to the net C sequestered as biochar, one-quarter to replacement of fossil-fuel energy by pyrolysis energy, and one-quarter to avoided emissions of CH4 and N2O. The total mitigation potential is 18-30% greater than if the same biomass were combusted to produce energy. Despite limited data for the decomposition rate of biochar in soils and the effects of biochar additions on soil greenhouse-gas fluxes, sensitivity within realistic ranges of these parameters is small, resulting in an uncertainty of ±8% (±1 s.d.) in our estimates. Achieving these mitigation results requires, however, that biochar production be performed using only low-emissions technologies and feedstocks obtained

  11. Global and Mediterranean climate change: a short summary.

    PubMed

    Ciardini, Virginia; Contessa, Gian Marco; Falsaperla, Rosaria; Gómez-Amo, José Luis; Meloni, Daniela; Monteleone, Francesco; Pace, Giandomenico; Piacentino, Salvatore; Sferlazzo, Damiano; di Sarra, Alcide

    2016-01-01

    Observed changes at the global scale. An increase of the annual mean global temperature and changes of other climate parameters have been observed in the last century. The global temperature and the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases are changing at a very fast pace compared to those found in palaeoclimate records. Changes in the Mediterranean. Variations of some climate change indicators can be much larger at the local than at the global scale, and the Mediterranean has been indicated among the regions most sensitive to climate change, also due to the increasing anthropogenic pressure. Model projections for the Mediterranean foresee further warming, droughts, and long-lasting modifications.

  12. Is the Eocene's climate affected by ocean tides?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weber, Tobias; Thomas, Maik

    2014-05-01

    Global ocean models can generally be divided into Ocean General Circulation and tidal models. Paleoclimate simulations consider dynamics due to the ocean's general, i.e., thermohaline, wind and pressure driven circulation, while tidal dynamics most commonly are neglected due to their strict periodicity and high frequencies. Nevertheless, it could be demonstrated that transport ellipses and energy fluxes are being deformed over shelf areas due to tidal induced friction thus altering ocean circulation and energy fluxes on longer timescales. This makes tides not only an interesting subject of investigation of present-day dynamics, but also of paleo time slices, when both different celestial constellations and geometric shapes of ocean basins affected tidal waves. Using the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPIOM with an integrated tidal module based on luni-solar ephemerides, we simultaneously simulate circulation and tidal dynamics for the Early Eocene (50Ma) and a pre-industrial control run. Major changes in ocean circulation cannot only be observed in shelf areas, but also in the open ocean, for example the Indian and North Atlantic Oceans. Especially the opening of the Tethys Sea alters ocean basin geometry and hereby the dissipation of tidal waves. The southern position of Australia allows resonance between the Indian and Pacific Ocean and leads to high amplitudes in the M2 tide that dominate the Western Pacific and Eastern Indian Oceans. Including tidal dynamics in the ocean model also affects climate by decreasing global mean temperature.

  13. The local, remote, and global consequences of climate feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feldl, Nicole

    Climate feedbacks offer a powerful framework for revealing the energetic pathways by which the system adjusts to an imposed forcing, such as an increase in atmospheric CO2. We investigate how local atmospheric feedbacks, such as those associated with Arctic sea ice and the Walker circulation, affect both global climate sensitivity and spatial patterns of warming. Emphasis is placed on a general circulation model with idealized boundary conditions, for the clarity it provides. For this aquaplanet simulation, we account for rapid tropospheric adjustments to CO2 and explicitly diagnose feedbacks (using radiative kernels) and forcing for this precise model set-up. In particular, a detailed closure of the energy budget within a clean experimental set-up allows us to consider nonlinear interactions between feedbacks. The inclusion of a tropical Walker circulation is found to prime the Hadley Circulation for a larger deceleration under CO2 doubling, by altering subtropical stratus decks and the meridional feedback gradient. We perform targeted experiments to isolate the atmospheric processes responsible for the variability in climate sensitivity, with implications for high-sensitivity paleoclimates. The local climate response is characterized in terms of the meridional structure of feedbacks, atmospheric heat transport, nonlinearities, and forcing. Our results display a combination of positive subtropical feedbacks and polar amplified warming. These two factors imply a critical role for transport and nonlinear effects, with the latter acting to substantially reduce global climate sensitivity. At the hemispheric scale, a rich picture emerges: anomalous divergence of heat flux away from positive feedbacks in the subtropics; clear-sky nonlinearities that reinforce the pattern of tropical cooling and high-latitude warming tendencies; and strong ice-line feedbacks that drive further amplification of polar warming. These results have implications for regional climate

  14. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32-39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability.

  15. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability.

    PubMed

    Ray, Deepak K; Gerber, James S; MacDonald, Graham K; West, Paul C

    2015-01-22

    Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32-39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability.

  16. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

    PubMed Central

    Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32–39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability. PMID:25609225

  17. Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hara, M.

    2015-12-01

    Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

  18. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    PubMed

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  19. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  20. Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

  1. The Indonesian Throughflow and the Global Climate System.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Niklas

    1998-04-01

    The role of the Indonesian Throughflow in the global climate system is investigated with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model by contrasting simulations with realistic throughflow and closed Indonesian passages.The Indonesian Throughflow affects the oceanic circulation and thermocline depth around Australia and in the Indian Ocean as described in previous studies and explained by Sverdrup transports. An open throughflow thereby increases surface temperatures in the eastern Indian ocean, reduces temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, and shifts the warm pool and centers of deep convection in the atmosphere to the west. This control on sea surface temperature and deep convection affects atmospheric pressure in the entire Tropics and, via atmospheric teleconnections, in the midlatitudes. As a result, surface wind stress in the entire Tropics changes and meridional and zonal gradients of the tropical thermocline and associated currents increase in the Pacific and decrease in the Indian Ocean. The response includes an acceleration of the equatorial undercurrent in the Pacific, and a deceleration in the Indian Ocean. Thus the Indonesian Throughflow exerts significant control over the global climate in general and the tropical climate in particular.Changes of surface fluxes in the Pacific warm pool region are consistent with the notion that shading by clouds, rather than increases of evaporation, limit highest surface temperatures in the open ocean of the western Pacific. In the marginal seas of the Pacific and in the Indian Ocean no such relationship is found. The feedback of the throughflow transport and its wind forcing is negative and suggests that this interplay cannot excite growing solution or lead to self-sustained oscillations of the ocean-atmosphere system.

  2. Cooperation and discord in global climate policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keohane, Robert O.; Victor, David G.

    2016-06-01

    Effective mitigation of climate change will require deep international cooperation, which is much more difficult to organize than the shallow coordination observed so far. Assessing the prospects for effective joint action on climate change requires an understanding of both the structure of the climate change problem and national preferences for policy action. Preferences have become clearer in light of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties in December 2015. Although deep cooperation remains elusive, many partial efforts could build confidence and lead to larger cuts in emissions. This strategy of decentralized policy coordination will not solve the climate problem, but it could lead incrementally to deeper cooperation.

  3. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    PubMed Central

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause–effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses—include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:79–92. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23161373

  4. Global change and marine communities: alien species and climate change.

    PubMed

    Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna

    2007-01-01

    Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

  5. HISTORICAL CHANGES IN GLOBAL SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERNS, MID-ATLANTIC CLIMATE STREAM FLOW AND NUTRIENT FLUXES TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The rate of change in Northern Hemisphere temperature in the past century strongly suggests that we are now in a period of rapid global climate change. Also, the climate in the mid-Atlantic is quite sensitive to larger scale climate variation, which affects the frequency and seve...

  6. Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

    2002-01-01

    The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

  7. Scientist's Perceptions of Uncertainty During Discussions of Global Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romanello, S.; Fortner, R.; Dervin, B.

    2003-04-01

    This research examines the nature of disagreements between natural and social scientists during discussions of global climate change. In particular, it explores whether the disagreements between natural and social scientists are related to the ontological, epistemological, or methodological nature of the uncertainty of global climate change during these discussions. A purposeful sample of 30 natural and social scientists recognized as experts in global climate change by the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and National Academies Committee on Global Change were interviewed to elicit their perceptions of disagreements during their three most troublesome discussions on global climate change. A mixed-method (qualitative plus quantitative research) approach with three independent variables was used to explore nature of uncertainty as a mediating variable in the relationships between academic training, level of sureness, level of knowledge, and position on global climate change, and the nature of disagreements and bridging strategies of natural and social scientists (Patton, 1997; Frechtling et al., 1997). This dissertation posits that it is the differences in the nature of uncertainty communicated by natural and social scientists and not sureness, knowledge, and position on global climate change that causes disagreements between the groups. By describing the nature of disagreements between natural and social scientists and illuminating bridging techniques scientists use during these disagreements, it is hoped that information collected from this research will create a better dialogue between the scientists studying global climate change by providing communication strategies which will allow those versed in one particular area to speak to non-experts whether they be other scientists, media officials, or the public. These tangible strategies can then be used by government agencies to create better communications and education plans, which can

  8. Heating up Climate Literacy Education: Understanding Teachers' and Students' Motivational and Affective Response to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sinatra, G. M.

    2011-12-01

    Changing students' ideas about controversial scientific issues, such as human-induced climate change, presents unique challenges for educators (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010; Sinatra & Mason, 2008). First, climate science is complex and requires "systems thinking," or the ability to think and reason abstractly about emergent systems (Goldstone & Sakamoto, 2003). Appreciating the intricacies of complex systems and emergent processes has proven challenging for students (Chi, 2005). In addition to these challenges, there are specific misconceptions that may lead thinking astray on the issue of global climate change, such as the distinction between weather and climate (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010). As an example, when students are asked about their views on climate change, they often recall individual storm events or very cold periods and use their personal experiences and recollections of short-term temperature fluctuations to assess whether the planet is warming. Beyond the conceptual difficulties, controversial topics offer another layer of challenge. Such topics are often embedded in complex socio-cultural and political contexts, have a high degree of uncertainty, and may be perceived by individuals as in conflict with their personal or religious beliefs (Levinson, 2006, Sinatra, Kardash, Taasoobshirazi, & Lombardi, 2011). Individuals are often committed to their own views on socio-scientific issues and this commitment may serve as a motivation to actively resist new ideas (Dole & Sinatra, 1998). Individuals may also have strong emotions associated with their misconceptions (Broughton, Pekrun, & Sinatra, 2011). Negative emotions, misconceptions, and resistance do not make a productive combination for learning. Further, teachers who find human-induced climate change implausible have been shown to hold negative emotions about having to teach about climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, in preparation), which could affect how they present the topic to students. In this

  9. Global Climate Responses to Anthropogenic Groundwater Exploitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Y.; Xie, Z.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, a groundwater exploitation scheme is incorporated into the earth system model, Community Earth System Model 1.2.0 (CESM1.2.0), which is called CESM1.2_GW, and the climatic responses to anthropogenic groundwater withdrawal are then investigated on global scale. The scheme models anthropogenic groundwater exploitation and consumption, which are then divided into agricultural irrigation, industrial use and domestic use. A group of 41-year ensemble groundwater exploitation simulations with six different initial conditions, and a group of ensemble control simulations without exploitation are conducted using the developed model CESM1.2_GW with water supplies and demands estimated. The results reveal that the groundwater exploitation and water consumption cause drying effects on soil moisture in deep layers and wetting effects in upper layers, along with a rapidly declining groundwater table in Central US, Haihe River Basin in China and Northern India and Pakistan where groundwater extraction are most severe in the world. The atmosphere also responds to anthropogenic groundwater exploitation. Cooling effects on lower troposphere appear in large areas of North China Plain and of Northern India and Pakistan. Increased precipitation occurs in Haihe River Basin due to increased evapotranspiration from irrigation. Decreased precipitation occurs in Northern India because water vapor here is taken away by monsoon anomalies induced by anthropogenic alteration of groundwater. The local reducing effects of anthropogenic groundwater exploitation on total terrestrial water storage evinces that water resource is unsustainable with the current high exploitation rate. Therefore, a balance between slow groundwater withdrawal and rapid human economic development must be achieved to maintain a sustainable water resource, especially in over-exploitation regions such as Central US, Northern China, India and Pakistan.

  10. Rubisco, Rubisco activase, and global climate change.

    PubMed

    Sage, Rowan F; Way, Danielle A; Kubien, David S

    2008-01-01

    Global warming and the rise in atmospheric CO(2) will increase the operating temperature of leaves in coming decades, often well above the thermal optimum for photosynthesis. Presently, there is controversy over the limiting processes controlling photosynthesis at elevated temperature. Leading models propose that the reduction in photosynthesis at elevated temperature is a function of either declining capacity of electron transport to regenerate RuBP, or reductions in the capacity of Rubisco activase to maintain Rubisco in an active configuration. Identifying which of these processes is the principal limitation at elevated temperature is complicated because each may be regulated in response to a limitation in the other. Biochemical and gas exchange assessments can disentangle these photosynthetic limitations; however, comprehensive assessments are often difficult and, for many species, virtually impossible. It is proposed that measurement of the initial slope of the CO(2) response of photosynthesis (the A/C(i) response) can be a useful means to screen for Rubisco activase limitations. This is because a reduction in the Rubisco activation state should be most apparent at low CO(2) when Rubisco capacity is generally limiting. In sweet potato, spinach, and tobacco, the initial slope of the A/C(i) response shows no evidence of activase limitations at high temperature, as the slope can be accurately modelled using the kinetic parameters of fully activated Rubisco. In black spruce (Picea mariana), a reduction in the initial slope above 30 degrees C cannot be explained by the known kinetics of fully activated Rubisco, indicating that activase may be limiting at high temperatures. Because black spruce is the dominant species in the boreal forest of North America, Rubisco activase may be an unusually important factor determining the response of the boreal biome to climate change.

  11. Global lightning activity and climate change. Ph.D. Thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Price, C.G.

    1993-01-01

    The relationship between global lightning frequencies and global climate change is examined in this thesis. In order to study global impacts of climate change, global climate models or General Circulations Models (GCM`s) need to be utilized. Since these models have coarse resolutions many atmospheric phenomena that occur at subgrid scales, such as lightning, need to be parameterized whenever possible. The first chapter introduces a simple parameterization used to simulate total (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning frequencies. The parameterization uses convective cloud top height to approximate lightning frequencies. The second chapter deals with a parameterization for simulating cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning around the globe. This parameterization uses the thickness of the cold cloud sector in thunderstorms (0 C to cloud top) to calculate the proportion of CG flashes in a particular thunderstorm. The third chapter deals with the modelling of lightning in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. This chapter presents results from the model`s control run. The fourth chapter presents two climate change scenarios. One for a climate where the solar constant is reduced by 2% (5.9 C global cooling), and one for a climate with twice the present concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (4.2 C global warming). The results imply a 24% / 30% decrease/increase in global lightning frequencies for the cooler/warmer climate. The fifth chapter considers the possibility of using the above findings to monitor future global warming. The results show that the earth`s ionospheric potential, which is regulated by global thunderstorm activity, could possibly supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. The sixth and final chapter looks at the implications of changes in both lightning frequencies and the hydrological cycle, as a result of global warming, on natural forest fires.

  12. The fingerprints of global climate change on insect populations.

    PubMed

    Boggs, Carol L

    2016-10-01

    Synthesizing papers from the last two years, I examined generalizations about the fingerprints of climate change on insects' population dynamics and phenology. Recent work shows that populations can differ in response to changes in climate means and variances. The part of the thermal niche occupied by an insect population, voltinism, plasticity and adaptation to weather perturbations, and interactions with other species can all exacerbate or mitigate responses to climate change. Likewise, land use change or agricultural practices can affect responses to climate change. Nonetheless, our knowledge of effects of climate change is still biased by organism and geographic region, and to some extent by scale of climate parameter.

  13. Examining Long-Term Global Climate Change on the Web.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huntoon, Jacqueline E.; Ridky, Robert K.

    2002-01-01

    Describes a web-based, inquiry-oriented activity that enables students to examine long-term global climate change. Supports instruction in other topics such as population growth. (Contains 34 references.) (DDR)

  14. Global warming: China’s contribution to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2016-03-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use in China have grown dramatically in the past few decades, yet it emerges that the country's relative contribution to global climate change has remained surprisingly constant. See Letter p.357

  15. Marine viruses and global climate change.

    PubMed

    Danovaro, Roberto; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Dell'anno, Antonio; Fuhrman, Jed A; Middelburg, Jack J; Noble, Rachel T; Suttle, Curtis A

    2011-11-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface oceans. Changing climate has direct and indirect consequences on marine viruses, including cascading effects on biogeochemical cycles, food webs, and the metabolic balance of the ocean. We discuss here a range of case studies of climate change and the potential consequences on virus function, viral assemblages and virus-host interactions. In turn, marine viruses influence directly and indirectly biogeochemical cycles, carbon sequestration capacity of the oceans and the gas exchange between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. We cannot yet predict whether the viruses will exacerbate or attenuate the magnitude of climate changes on marine ecosystems, but we provide evidence that marine viruses interact actively with the present climate change and are a key biotic component that is able to influence the oceans' feedback on climate change. Long-term and wide spatial-scale studies, and improved knowledge of host-virus dynamics in the world's oceans will permit the incorporation of the viral component into future ocean climate models and increase the accuracy of the predictions of the climate change impacts on the function of the oceans.

  16. Geodynamic contributions to global climatic change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bills, Bruce G.

    1992-01-01

    Orbital and rotational variations perturb the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of incident solar radiation, producing major climatic change on time scales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. The orbital variations are oblivious to internal structure and processes, but the rotational variations are not. A program of investigation whose objective would be to explore and quantify three aspects of orbital, rotational, and climatic interactions is described. An important premise of this investigation is the synergism between geodynamics and paleoclimate. Better geophysical models of precessional dynamics are needed in order to accurately reconstruct the radiative input to climate models. Some of the paleoclimate proxy records contain information relevant to solid Earth processes, on time scales which are difficult to constrain otherwise. Specific mechanisms which will be addressed include: (1) climatic consequences of deglacial polar motion; and (2) precessional and climatic consequences of glacially induced perturbations in the gravitational oblateness and partial decoupling of the mantle and core. The approach entails constructing theoretical models of the rotational, deformational, radiative, and climatic response of the Earth to known orbital perturbations, and comparing these with extensive records of paleoclimate proxy data. Several of the mechanisms of interest may participate in previously unrecognized feed-back loops in the climate dynamics system. A new algorithm for estimating climatically diagnostic locations and seasons from the paleoclimate time series is proposed.

  17. How does spatial variability of climate affect catchment streamflow predictions?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial variability of climate can negatively affect catchment streamflow predictions if it is not explicitly accounted for in hydrologic models. In this paper, we examine the changes in streamflow predictability when a hydrologic model is run with spatially variable (distribute...

  18. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Xiaohui; Sohngen, Brent; Kim, John B.; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2016-03-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, the MC2 model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase by approximately 30% over the century. Aboveground forest carbon storage also is projected to increase, by approximately 26 Pg C by 2115, as a result of climate change, potentially providing an offset to emissions from other sectors. The effects of climate mitigation policies in the energy sector are then examined. When climate mitigation in the energy sector reduces warming, we project a smaller increase in forest outputs over the timeframe of the analysis, and we project a reduction in the sink capacity of forests of around 12 Pg C by 2115.

  19. Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, S.; Fu, Q.

    2013-10-01

    Global drylands encompassing hyper-arid, arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid areas cover about 41 percent of the earth's terrestrial surface and are home to more than a third of the world's population. By analyzing observations for 1948-2008 and climate model simulations for 1948-2100, we show that global drylands have expanded in the last sixty years and will continue to expand in the 21st~century. By the end of this century, the world's drylands (under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario) are projected to be 5.8 × 106 km2 (or 10%) larger than in the 1961-1990 climatology. The major expansion of arid regions will occur over southwest North America, the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa, and Australia, while major expansions of semiarid regions will occur over the north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and North and South America. The global dryland expansions will increase the population affected by water scarcity and land degradations.

  20. A Tale of Two Minds: Psychology and Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howard, George S.

    2010-01-01

    The American Psychological Association recently released its Presidential Task Force report on Psychology and Global Climate Change. Its principles and proposals would inaugurate a long and productive program of psychological research on climate change. But is it too little, too late? Climatologists have been growing progressively gloomier over…

  1. Remote sensing and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Vaughan, A.; Cracknell, A.P.

    1994-12-31

    This book, based on lectures from the Dundee Summer Schools in Remote Sensing in 1992, focuses on aspects of remote sensing related to climatic change. The organization of the book focuses on particular parts of the climate system and then discusses the different satellite systems relevant to their measurement. The following subject areas are included in the book: background information about the climate system and remote sensing; atmospheric applications in both lower and upper atmosphere; land surface including snow and ice, altimetry in Antarctica, land surface energy budget and albedo; marine science; ecological monitoring in St. Petersburg, Russia.

  2. Landscape fragmentation affects responses of avian communities to climate change.

    PubMed

    Jarzyna, Marta A; Porter, William F; Maurer, Brian A; Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Finley, Andrew O

    2015-08-01

    Forecasting the consequences of climate change is contingent upon our understanding of the relationship between biodiversity patterns and climatic variability. While the impacts of climate change on individual species have been well-documented, there is a paucity of studies on climate-mediated changes in community dynamics. Our objectives were to investigate the relationship between temporal turnover in avian biodiversity and changes in climatic conditions and to assess the role of landscape fragmentation in affecting this relationship. We hypothesized that community turnover would be highest in regions experiencing the most pronounced changes in climate and that these patterns would be reduced in human-dominated landscapes. To test this hypothesis, we quantified temporal turnover in avian communities over a 20-year period using data from the New York State Breeding Atlases collected during 1980-1985 and 2000-2005. We applied Bayesian spatially varying intercept models to evaluate the relationship between temporal turnover and temporal trends in climatic conditions and landscape fragmentation. We found that models including interaction terms between climate change and landscape fragmentation were superior to models without the interaction terms, suggesting that the relationship between avian community turnover and changes in climatic conditions was affected by the level of landscape fragmentation. Specifically, we found weaker associations between temporal turnover and climatic change in regions with prevalent habitat fragmentation. We suggest that avian communities in fragmented landscapes are more robust to climate change than communities found in contiguous habitats because they are comprised of species with wider thermal niches and thus are less susceptible to shifts in climatic variability. We conclude that highly fragmented regions are likely to undergo less pronounced changes in composition and structure of faunal communities as a result of climate change

  3. Quantifying the Climate Regulation Values of Ecosystems Globally

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.; DeLucia, E. H.; Snyder, P. K.; LeBauer, D.; Long, S.

    2014-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems play an important role in the climate system, regulating climate through both biogeochemical (greenhouse-gas regulation) and biophysical (regulation of water and energy) mechanisms. However, initiatives aimed at climate protection through land management account only for biogeochemical mechanisms. By ignoring biophysical processes, these initiatives risk promoting suboptimal solutions. Our recently proposed metric for the climate regulation value (CRV) of ecosystems provides one potential approach to quantifying how biogeochemical and biophysical effects combine to determine the climate services of terrestrial ecosystems. In order to provide broadly accessible estimates of CRV for ecosystems worldwide, we have created an online ecosystem climate regulation services calculator with global coverage. The CRV calculator incorporates global maps of climatically significant ecosystem properties (for example, biomass, soil carbon, and evapotranspiration) to provide location-specific CRV estimates. We use this calculator to derive values for forests globally, revealing that CRV commonly differs meaningfully from values derived based purely on carbon storage. In the face of increasing land-use pressures and the increasingly urgent need for climate change mitigation, the CRV calculator has the potential to facilitate improved quantification of ecosystem climate regulation services by scientists, conservationists, policy makers, and the private sector.

  4. Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

  5. The rise of global warming skepticism: exploring affective image associations in the United States over time.

    PubMed

    Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2012-06-01

    This article explores how affective image associations to global warming have changed over time. Four nationally representative surveys of the American public were conducted between 2002 and 2010 to assess public global warming risk perceptions, policy preferences, and behavior. Affective images (positive or negative feelings and cognitive representations) were collected and content analyzed. The results demonstrate a large increase in "naysayer" associations, indicating extreme skepticism about the issue of climate change. Multiple regression analyses found that holistic affect and "naysayer" associations were more significant predictors of global warming risk perceptions than cultural worldviews or sociodemographic variables, including political party and ideology. The results demonstrate the important role affective imagery plays in judgment and decision-making processes, how these variables change over time, and how global warming is currently perceived by the American public.

  6. Remote sensing of oceanic biology in relation to global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Aiken, J.; Moore, G.F.; Holligan, P.M. )

    1992-10-01

    The oceans have a fundamental role in the global climate system because of their capacity to store and transport heat and absorb and emit trace gases which affect the earth's radiation budget. Although good progress has been made with issues such as carbon and sulfur cycling, feedback responses related to the impact of climate change on biological systems, and links between plankton ecology and climate, there is a lack of information on the distributions of biological properties on a global scale. This article reviews the potential contribution of ocean color measurements for biological studies within the context of climate change. The remote sensing of oceanic phytoplankton from satellites measuring radiance at visible and near infrared wavelenghts has produced a wealth of new information on biomass distributions and has provided a basis for new approaches to estimation of global marine primary productivity.

  7. Global Change Simulations Affect Potential Methane Oxidation in Upland Soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blankinship, J. C.; Hungate, B. A.

    2004-12-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of methane (CH4) are higher now than they have ever been during the past 420,000 years. However, concentrations have remained stable since 1999. Emissions associated with livestock husbandry are unlikely to have changed, so some combination of reduced production in wetlands, more efficient capture by landfills, or increased consumption by biological CH4 oxidation in upland soils may be responsible. Methane oxidizing bacteria are ubiquitous in upland soils and little is known about how these bacteria respond to anthropogenic global change, and how they will influence - or already are influencing - the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Might ongoing and future global changes increase biological CH4 oxidation? Soils were sampled from two field experiments to assess changes in rates of CH4 oxidation in response to global change simulations. Potential activities of CH4 oxidizing bacterial communities were measured through laboratory incubations under optimal temperature, soil moisture, and atmospheric CH4 concentrations (~18 ppm, or 10x ambient). The ongoing 6-year multifactorial Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE) simulates warming, elevated precipitation, elevated atmospheric CO2, elevated atmospheric N deposition, and increased wildfire frequency in an annual grassland in a Mediterranean-type climate in central California. The ongoing 1-year multifactorial Merriam Climate Change Experiment (MCCE) simulates warming, elevated precipitation, and reduced precipitation in four different types of ecosystems along an elevational gradient in a semi-arid climate in northern Arizona. The high desert grassland, pinyon-juniper woodland, ponderosa pine forest, and mixed conifer forest ecosystems range in annual precipitation from 100 to 1000 mm yr-1, and from productivity being strongly water limited to strongly temperature limited. Among JRGCE soils, elevated atmospheric CO2 increased potential CH4 oxidation rates (p=0.052) and wildfire

  8. Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, J. (Editor); Rossow, W. (Editor); Fung, I. (Editor)

    1993-01-01

    A workshop on Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks was held February 3-4, 1992, at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies to discuss the measurements required to interpret long-term global temperature changes, to critique the proposed contributions of a series of small satellites (Climsat), and to identify needed complementary monitoring. The workshop concluded that long-term (several decades) of continuous monitoring of the major climate forcings and feedbacks is essential for understanding long-term climate change.

  9. Global Climate Change. Selected Annotated Bibliography. Second Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Douglas E.

    This annotated bibliography on global climate change contains 27 articles designed to expand the breadth and depth of information presented in the Global Change Information Packet. Most articles were chosen from journals likely to be available in most medium-sized public or college libraries. The articles cover a variety of topics related to…

  10. What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?

    PubMed

    Sutton, Rowan; Suckling, Emma; Hawkins, Ed

    2015-11-13

    The subject of climate feedbacks focuses attention on global mean surface air temperature (GMST) as the key metric of climate change. But what does knowledge of past and future GMST tell us about the climate of specific regions? In the context of the ongoing UNFCCC process, this is an important question for policy-makers as well as for scientists. The answer depends on many factors, including the mechanisms causing changes, the timescale of the changes, and the variables and regions of interest. This paper provides a review and analysis of the relationship between changes in GMST and changes in local climate, first in observational records and then in a range of climate model simulations, which are used to interpret the observations. The focus is on decadal timescales, which are of particular interest in relation to recent and near-future anthropogenic climate change. It is shown that GMST primarily provides information about forced responses, but that understanding and quantifying internal variability is essential to projecting climate and climate impacts on regional-to-local scales. The relationship between local forced responses and GMST is often linear but may be nonlinear, and can be greatly complicated by competition between different forcing factors. Climate projections are limited not only by uncertainties in the signal of climate change but also by uncertainties in the characteristics of real-world internal variability. Finally, it is shown that the relationship between GMST and local climate provides a simple approach to climate change detection, and a useful guide to attribution studies.

  11. A Comprehensive Data Portal for Global Climate Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diamond, Howard J.; Lief, Christina J.

    2009-09-01

    The Global Observing Systems Information Center (GOSIC), initiated in 1997 at the request of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Steering Committee (see http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/gcos-39.pdf), responds to a need identified by the global climate observing community for easier and more effective access to observational climate data and information. GOSIC manages an online portal providing an entry point for users of climate-related global observing systems data and information systems. Following its initial development and implementation at the University of Delaware from 1997 to 2006, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) assumed operational responsibility for GOSIC on behalf of the international climate observing and data user communities. The goal of GOSIC is to provide basic user services, including a description of the systems and their data as well as a tailored search capability that facilitates access to a worldwide set of observations and derived products. GOSIC's unique value is its ability to quickly link users, via a consistent and user-friendly interface, to a wide range of data sets that reside at multiple data centers; the GOSIC portal (http://GOSIC.org) provides users with links to data, metadata, other search tools, and related climate-observing information.

  12. The Intensification of Global and Regional Climate Variability and Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weaver, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    Recent evidence from the IPCC and National Climate Assessment reports indicate that extreme climate events are increasing in many regions of the world. Interestingly, the nature and causes of the changes in extremes may be expressed differently for the global and regional scales, and also amongst climate variables (e.g., precipitation and temperature). For instance, over the last several decades the temperature probability density function on the global scale exhibits a mean shift to the warmer side, as opposed to a change in it's variability. Conversely, the interannual variability of precipitation is intensifying on the regional scale, especially over the U.S. during spring. Although the statistical characteristics of the temperature and precipitation changes may have a varied expression they both contribute to the potential for increases in extreme events. The causes and physical mechanisms for the intensification of mean global temperature and regional precipitation variability are explored using observationally constrained datasets and non-traditional climate model approaches.

  13. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…

  14. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    The delicate balance of the gases that make up our atmosphere allows life to exist on Earth. Ozone depletion and global warming are related to changes in the concentrations of these gases. To solve global atmospheric problems, we need to understand the composition and chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere and the impact of human activities on them.

  15. Changes in Southeast Asian Climate: Response to and Feedback onto Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, S.

    2015-12-01

    This study is focused on the long-term changes in the climate over Southeast Asia (SEA) and its adjacent regions. The changes in SEA climate are closely related to the changes in global climate, especially via the changes in ENSO and the large-scale Asian monsoon circulation. In the past decades, both ENSO and the monsoon have experienced remarkable long-term changes, leading to significant climate signals over Southeast Asia and its adjacent regions. This study attributes these climate signals to different factors, emphasizing the contributions from water vapor feedback to surface climate signals, and from cloud and atmospheric feedbacks to the changes in the troposphere. On the other hand, SEA and its adjacent regions also exert significant influences on the climate outside the regions. Various experiments with NCAR CESM and other earth system models are applied to investigate the impacts of the regional climate on the climate over Africa, Asian-Pacific-American regions, and the southern hemisphere.

  16. Convergence of terrestrial plant production across global climate gradients.

    PubMed

    Michaletz, Sean T; Cheng, Dongliang; Kerkhoff, Andrew J; Enquist, Brian J

    2014-08-07

    Variation in terrestrial net primary production (NPP) with climate is thought to originate from a direct influence of temperature and precipitation on plant metabolism. However, variation in NPP may also result from an indirect influence of climate by means of plant age, stand biomass, growing season length and local adaptation. To identify the relative importance of direct and indirect climate effects, we extend metabolic scaling theory to link hypothesized climate influences with NPP, and assess hypothesized relationships using a global compilation of ecosystem woody plant biomass and production data. Notably, age and biomass explained most of the variation in production whereas temperature and precipitation explained almost none, suggesting that climate indirectly (not directly) influences production. Furthermore, our theory shows that variation in NPP is characterized by a common scaling relationship, suggesting that global change models can incorporate the mechanisms governing this relationship to improve predictions of future ecosystem function.

  17. The missing data on global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hansen, J.; Rossow, W.; Fung, I. )

    1990-01-01

    Much of the data we need to characterize changes in the Earth's climate are being acquired by operational satellites and ground stations. Additional parameters need to be measured. The necessary data-gathering instruments are to be included in the Earth Observing Systems, a set of large polar-orbiting platforms to be launched by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration by the end of this decade. Any analysis of climate must take into account climate forcings (anthropogenic or externally imposed changes), climate feedbacks which can be either positive or negative, and climate diagnostics. Existing and proposed sources for acquiring the data are listed in Table 1. A system utilizing three instruments on two satellites is proposed. These small satellites would complement the large polar platforms and speed up the acquisition of data. The three proposed instruments would include an upper atmosphere aerosol and gas monitor, atropospheric aerosol and cloud monitor, and an earth radiation budget monitor at the top of the atmosphere. Preliminary cost estimates and advantages of this system are given.

  18. Global patterns of species richness and climate

    SciTech Connect

    Currie, D.J. )

    1994-06-01

    Why are there many species in some places and few in others Several studies have shown that the variation in the number of species over continent-sized areas is closely related to the variation in macroclimatic factors: heat and moisture for terrestrial plants, and heat for terrestrial vertebrates. Yet, most of these studies dealt primarily with temperature areas on single continents. If contemporary climate is the principle determinant of large-scale patterns of richness, then richness should be related to climate in similar ways on different continents, regardless of their evolutionary histories. To test the hypothesis, we have gathered published data on the distributions of birds and mammals in temperature and tropical areas. We found that richness varies as a function of potential evapotranspiration in very similar ways on different continents in temperate areas, although there is some significant variation among continents that is unrelated to climate. In tropical areas, richness is more closely related to precipitation and annual climatic variability. Re-analysis of published data on plant richness is consistent with these observations. We conclude that most of the variation in large-scale patterns of species richness can be accounted for by contemporary climate.

  19. Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois

    SciTech Connect

    Womeldorff, P.J.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.

  20. Ecological response to global climatic change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Malanson, G.P.; Butler, D.R.; Walsh, S. J.; Janelle, Donald G.; Warf, Barney; Hansen, Kathy

    2004-01-01

    Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.

  1. Illinois task force on global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Griffin, B.S.

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in the areas of national policy development, emissions reduction, research and education, and adaptation, and to identify specific actions that will be undertaken to implement the Illinois state action plan. The task force has been tracking national and international climate change policy, and helping shape national policy agenda. Identification and implementation of cost-effective mitigation measures has been performed for emissions reduction. In the area of research and education, the task force is developing the capacity to measure climate change indicators, maintaining and enhancing Illinois relevant research, and strengthening climate change education. Activities relevant to adaptation to new policy include strengthening water laws and planning for adaptation. 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  2. Global climate change and above- belowground insect herbivore interactions

    PubMed Central

    McKenzie, Scott W.; Hentley, William T.; Hails, Rosemary S.; Jones, T. Hefin; Vanbergen, Adam J.; Johnson, Scott N.

    2013-01-01

    Predicted changes to the Earth’s climate are likely to affect above–belowground interactions. Our understanding is limited, however, by past focus on two-species aboveground interactions mostly ignoring belowground influences. Despite their importance to ecosystem processes, there remains a dearth of empirical evidence showing how climate change will affect above–belowground interactions. The responses of above- and belowground organisms to climate change are likely to differ given the fundamentally different niches they inhabit. Yet there are few studies that address the biological and ecological reactions of belowground herbivores to environmental conditions in current and future climates. Even fewer studies investigate the consequences of climate change for above–belowground interactions between herbivores and other organisms; those that do provide no evidence of a directed response. This paper highlights the importance of considering the belowground fauna when making predictions on the effects of climate change on plant-mediated interspecific interactions. PMID:24155750

  3. Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller Schmied, Hannes; Adam, Linda; Eisner, Stephanie; Fink, Gabriel; Flörke, Martina; Kim, Hyungjun; Oki, Taikan; Portmann, Felix Theodor; Reinecke, Robert; Riedel, Claudia; Song, Qi; Zhang, Jing; Döll, Petra

    2016-10-01

    The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971-2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (-6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean). Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.

  4. Temperature, global climate change and food security

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Accelerated climate change is expected to have a significant, but variable impact on the world’s major cropping zones. Crops will experience increasingly warmer, drier and more variable growing conditions in the temperate to subtropical latitudes towards 2050 and beyond. Short-term (1-5 day) spikes ...

  5. Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate.

    PubMed

    Hsiang, Solomon M; Meng, Kyle C; Cane, Mark A

    2011-08-24

    It has been proposed that changes in global climate have been responsible for episodes of widespread violence and even the collapse of civilizations. Yet previous studies have not shown that violence can be attributed to the global climate, only that random weather events might be correlated with conflict in some cases. Here we directly associate planetary-scale climate changes with global patterns of civil conflict by examining the dominant interannual mode of the modern climate, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Historians have argued that ENSO may have driven global patterns of civil conflict in the distant past, a hypothesis that we extend to the modern era and test quantitatively. Using data from 1950 to 2004, we show that the probability of new civil conflicts arising throughout the tropics doubles during El Niño years relative to La Niña years. This result, which indicates that ENSO may have had a role in 21% of all civil conflicts since 1950, is the first demonstration that the stability of modern societies relates strongly to the global climate.

  6. Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in

  7. Will climate change affect biodiversity in pacific northwest forests

    SciTech Connect

    Henderson, S.; Rosenbaum, B.J.

    1992-01-01

    Global climate change could have significant consequences for biological diversity in Pacific Northwest (PNW) forested ecosystems, particularly in areas already threatened by anthropogenic activities and the resultant habitat modification and fragmentation. The forests of the Pacific Northwest have a high biological diversity, not only in terms of tree species, but also in terms of herbs, bryophytes and hepatophytes, algae, fungi, protist, bacteria, and many groups of vertebrates and invertebrates. Global circulation and vegetation model projections of global climate change effects on PNW forests include reductions in species diversity in low elevation forests as well as elevational and latitudinal shifts in species ranges. As species are most likely to be stressed at the edges of their ranges, plant and animal species with low mobility, or those that are prevented from migrating by lack of habitat corridors, may become regionally extinct. Endangered species with limited distribution may be especially vulnerable to shifts in habitat conditions.

  8. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Alaska Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire, D.

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts in Alaska. The resulting findings are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Summers are getting hotter and drier, with increasing evaporation outpacing increased precipitation. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Wildfires and insect problems are increasing. Climate plays a key role in determining the extent and severity of insect outbreaks and wildfire. The area burned in North America’s northern forest that spans Alaska and Canada tripled from the 1960s to the 1990s. During the 1990s, south-central Alaska experienced the largest outbreak of spruce bark beetles in the world because of warmer weather in all seasons of the year. Under changing climate conditions, the average area burned per year in Alaska is projected to double by the middle of this century10. By the end of this century, area burned by fire is projected to triple under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario and to quadruple under a higher emissions scenario. Close-bodied lakes are declining in area. A continued decline in the area of surface water would present challenges for the management of natural resources and ecosystems on National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. These refuges, which cover over 77 million acres (21 percent of Alaska) and comprise 81 percent of the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System, provide a breeding habitat for millions of waterfowl and shorebirds that winter in the lower 48 states. Permafrost thawing will damage public and private infrastructure. Land subsidence (sinking) associated with the thawing of permafrost presents substantial challenges to engineers attempting to preserve infrastructure in

  9. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  10. Groundwater and climate change: mitigating the global groundwater crisis and adapting to climate change model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    To better understand the effects of climate change on global groundwater resources, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) International Hydrological Programme (IHP) initiated the GRAPHIC (Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Cl...

  11. Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

    PubMed

    Diaz, James H

    2006-01-01

    Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world.

  12. Has solar variability caused climate change that affected human culture?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feynman, Joan

    If solar variability affects human culture it most likely does so by changing the climate in which the culture operates. Variations in the solar radiative input to the Earth's atmosphere have often been suggested as a cause of such climate change on time scales from decades to tens of millennia. In the last 20 years there has been enormous progress in our knowledge of the many fields of research that impinge on this problem; the history of the solar output, the effect of solar variability on the Earth's mean climate and its regional patterns, the history of the Earth's climate and the history of mankind and human culture. This new knowledge encourages revisiting the question asked in the title of this talk. Several important historical events have been reliably related to climate change including the Little Ice Age in northern Europe and the collapse of the Classical Mayan civilization in the 9th century AD. In the first section of this paper we discus these historical events and review the evidence that they were caused by changes in the solar output. Perhaps the most important event in the history of mankind was the development of agricultural societies. This began to occur almost 12,000 years ago when the climate changed from the Pleistocene to the modern climate of the Holocene. In the second section of the paper we will discuss the suggestion ( Feynman and Ruzmaikin, 2007) that climate variability was the reason agriculture developed when it did and not before.

  13. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  14. Developing country finance in a post-2020 global climate agreement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hannam, Phillip M.; Liao, Zhenliang; Davis, Steven J.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2015-11-01

    A central task for negotiators of the post-2020 global climate agreement is to construct a finance regime that supports low-carbon development in developing economies. As power sector investments between developing countries grow, the climate finance regime should incentivize the decarbonization of these major sources of finance by integrating them as a complement to the commitments of developed nations. The emergence of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, South-South Cooperation Fund and other nascent institutions reveal the fissures that exist in rules and norms surrounding international finance in the power sector. Structuring the climate agreement in Paris to credit qualified finance from the developing world could have several advantages, including: (1) encouraging low-carbon cooperation between developing countries; (2) incentivizing emerging investors to prefer low-carbon investments; and (3) enabling more cost-effective attainment of national and global climate objectives. Failure to coordinate on standards now could hinder low-carbon development in the decades to come.

  15. The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sévellec, F.; Sinha, B.; Skliris, N.

    2016-08-01

    The nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade-long slowdown in surface warming, the so-called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here surface air temperature from 20 climate models is analyzed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and "surges" (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a "business as usual" scenario. For "CO2 stabilisation" scenarios, hiatus, and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st century and future reoccurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability.

  16. Population and climate pressures on global river water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wen, Yingrong; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

    2015-04-01

    We present a global analysis of the combined effects of population growth and climate change on river water quality. In-stream Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) concentration is calculated along global river networks using past, current and future information on gridded population and river discharge. Our model accounts for the accumulation (from populated areas), transport, dilution, and degradation of BOD to reveal the combined effects of population growth and climate change on river water quality. From 1950 to 2000, our analysis indicates that rivers that flow through regions with increasing population undergo a prominent deterioration of water quality, especially in developing countries with a lack of treatment plants. By 2050, population growth and climate change have varying effects on degradation of river water quality, with their combined effect amplified in region undergoing both population growth (more pollutant loading) and decrease in discharge (less dilution capacity). Keywords: Population growth, Climate change, River water quality, Space-time analysis, Water management

  17. Central Africa: Global climate change and development. Synopsis

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-01-01

    Central Africa contains the largest remaining contiguous expanse of moist tropical forest on the African continent and the second largest in the world. However, deforestation rates are rising as the result of rapid population growth, inappropriate economic policies, economic downturns, and weak management capacities. If clearing rates continue to rise, a substantial amount of carbon dioxide will be released into the atmosphere, thus contributing to global climate change. The report summarizes a study designed as a first step in understanding the complex dynamics of the causes and effects of global climate change in Central Africa. The current state of the region's forests, greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and biomass burning, and the potential impacts of global climate change are discussed.

  18. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE--THE TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations which are at least partly responsible for the roughly 0.7% degree C global warming earth has experienced since the industrial revolution. With industrial activit...

  19. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  20. Human footprint affects US carbon balance more than climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bachelet, Dominique; Ferschweiler, Ken; Sheehan, Tim; Baker, Barry; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang

    2017-01-01

    The MC2 model projects an overall increase in carbon capture in conterminous United States during the 21st century while also simulating a rise in fire causing much carbon loss. Carbon sequestration in soils is critical to prevent carbon losses from future disturbances, and we show that natural ecosystems store more carbon belowground than managed systems do. Natural and human-caused disturbances affect soil processes that shape ecosystem recovery and competitive interactions between native, exotics, and climate refugees. Tomorrow's carbon budgets will depend on how land use, natural disturbances, and climate variability will interact and affect the balance between carbon capture and release.

  1. Will climate change affect outbreak patterns of planthoppers in Bangladesh?

    PubMed

    Ali, M P; Huang, Dingcheng; Nachman, G; Ahmed, Nur; Begum, Mahfuz Ara; Rabbi, M F

    2014-01-01

    Recently, planthoppers outbreaks have intensified across Asia resulting in heavy rice yield losses. The problem has been widely reported as being induced by insecticides while other factors such as global warming that could be potential drivers have been neglected. Here, we speculate that global warming may increase outbreak risk of brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål.). We present data that demonstrate the relationship between climate variables (air temperature and precipitation) and the abundance of brown planthopper (BPH) during 1998-2007. Data show that BPH has become significantly more abundant in April over the 10-year period, but our data do not indicate that this is due to a change in climate, as no significant time trends in temperature and precipitation could be demonstrated. The abundance of BPH varied considerably between months within a year which is attributed to seasonal factors, including the availability of suitable host plants. On the other hand, the variation within months is attributed to fluctuations in monthly temperature and precipitation among years. The effects of these weather variables on BPH abundance were analyzed statistically by a general linear model. The statistical model shows that the expected effect of increasing temperatures is ambiguous and interacts with the amount of rainfall. According to the model, months or areas characterized by a climate that is either cold and dry or hot and wet are likely to experience higher levels of BPH due to climate change, whereas other combinations of temperature and rainfall may reduce the abundance of BPH. The analysis indicates that global warming may have contributed to the recent outbreaks of BPH in some rice growing areas of Asia, and that the severity of such outbreaks is likely to increase if climate change exaggerates. Our study highlights the need to consider climate change when designing strategies to manage planthoppers outbreaks.

  2. Will Climate Change Affect Outbreak Patterns of Planthoppers in Bangladesh?

    PubMed Central

    Ali, M. P.; Huang, Dingcheng; Nachman, G.; Ahmed, Nur; Begum, Mahfuz Ara; Rabbi, M. F.

    2014-01-01

    Recently, planthoppers outbreaks have intensified across Asia resulting in heavy rice yield losses. The problem has been widely reported as being induced by insecticides while other factors such as global warming that could be potential drivers have been neglected. Here, we speculate that global warming may increase outbreak risk of brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål.). We present data that demonstrate the relationship between climate variables (air temperature and precipitation) and the abundance of brown planthopper (BPH) during 1998–2007. Data show that BPH has become significantly more abundant in April over the 10-year period, but our data do not indicate that this is due to a change in climate, as no significant time trends in temperature and precipitation could be demonstrated. The abundance of BPH varied considerably between months within a year which is attributed to seasonal factors, including the availability of suitable host plants. On the other hand, the variation within months is attributed to fluctuations in monthly temperature and precipitation among years. The effects of these weather variables on BPH abundance were analyzed statistically by a general linear model. The statistical model shows that the expected effect of increasing temperatures is ambiguous and interacts with the amount of rainfall. According to the model, months or areas characterized by a climate that is either cold and dry or hot and wet are likely to experience higher levels of BPH due to climate change, whereas other combinations of temperature and rainfall may reduce the abundance of BPH. The analysis indicates that global warming may have contributed to the recent outbreaks of BPH in some rice growing areas of Asia, and that the severity of such outbreaks is likely to increase if climate change exaggerates. Our study highlights the need to consider climate change when designing strategies to manage planthoppers outbreaks. PMID:24618677

  3. Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tai, Amos P. K.; Martin, Maria Val; Heald, Colette L.

    2014-09-01

    Future food production is highly vulnerable to both climate change and air pollution with implications for global food security. Climate change adaptation and ozone regulation have been identified as important strategies to safeguard food production, but little is known about how climate and ozone pollution interact to affect agriculture, nor the relative effectiveness of these two strategies for different crops and regions. Here we present an integrated analysis of the individual and combined effects of 2000-2050 climate change and ozone trends on the production of four major crops (wheat, rice, maize and soybean) worldwide based on historical observations and model projections, specifically accounting for ozone-temperature co-variation. The projections exclude the effect of rising CO2, which has complex and potentially offsetting impacts on global food supply. We show that warming reduces global crop production by >10% by 2050 with a potential to substantially worsen global malnutrition in all scenarios considered. Ozone trends either exacerbate or offset a substantial fraction of climate impacts depending on the scenario, suggesting the importance of air quality management in agricultural planning. Furthermore, we find that depending on region some crops are primarily sensitive to either ozone (for example, wheat) or heat (for example, maize) alone, providing a measure of relative benefits of climate adaptation versus ozone regulation for food security in different regions.

  4. Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; O'Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2015-07-01

    The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250-1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m-2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway.

  5. Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients

    PubMed Central

    Craine, Joseph M.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W. Troy; Brookshire, E. N. J.; Cramer, Michael D.; Hasselquist, Niles J.; Hobbie, Erik A.; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J. Marty; Mack, Michelle C.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R.; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B.; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Perakis, Steven S.; Peri, Pablo L.; Quesada, Carlos A.; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A.; Stevenson, Bryan A.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Viani, Ricardo A. G.; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the 15N:14N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in 15N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ15N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ15N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss. PMID:25655192

  6. Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients.

    PubMed

    Craine, Joseph M; Elmore, Andrew J; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W Troy; Brookshire, E N J; Cramer, Michael D; Hasselquist, Niles J; Hobbie, Erik A; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J Marty; Mack, Michelle C; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R; McLauchlan, Kendra K; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B; Oliveira, Rafael S; Perakis, Steven S; Peri, Pablo L; Quesada, Carlos A; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A; Stevenson, Bryan A; Turner, Benjamin L; Viani, Ricardo A G; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

    2015-02-06

    Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the (15)N:(14)N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in (15)N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ(15)N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ(15)N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

  7. Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Craine, Joseph M.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W. Troy; Brookshire, E. N. J.; Cramer, Michael D.; Hasselquist, Niles J.; Hobbie, Erik A.; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J. Marty; Mack, Michelle C.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R.; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B.; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Perakis, Steven S.; Peri, Pablo L.; Quesada, Carlos A.; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A.; Stevenson, Bryan A.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Viani, Ricardo A. G.; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the 15 N: 14 N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in 15 N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ15N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ15N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

  8. Global climate change: A utility industry perspective

    SciTech Connect

    DeMichele, O.M.

    1994-12-31

    Many electric utilities have accepted responsibility to help reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Many have enthusiastically committed their support. No one industry, government or environmental group can take responsibility for, or stop, climate change. However, for a long time, electric utilities took an unfair share of the blame. Since 1973, US electricity use has increased 61%. But, total energy use went up only 11%. Meanwhile, carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of gross domestic product dropped 29%. In other words, increased electrification actually increases energy efficiency and reduces greenhouse gases.

  9. Increasing Diversity in Global Climate Change Research for Undergraduates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, L. P.; Marchese, P.; Carlson, B. E.; Howard, A. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Druyan, L. M.; Fulakeza, M.; Gaffin, S.; Austin, S. A.; Cheung, T. D.; Damas, M. C.; Boxe, C.; Prince, T.; Ng, C.; Frost, J.

    2014-12-01

    Global Climate Change and the ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate are critical to the survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies towards advanced degrees and pursue careers related to climate change. This is best accomplished by involving undergraduates in global climate change research. This Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) initiative is based at the City University of New York (CUNY) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and is supported by NASA and NSF. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences include CUNY faculty and GISS scientists. Research topics include the Wetland Carbon Project, The Cooling Power Of Urban Vegetation, Internal Ocean Mixing, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pollution Transport and Tropospheric Ozone. Students are recruited from CUNY colleges and other colleges and universities. The program maintains an emphasis on under-represented minorities and females. Approximately sixty percent of the undergraduate students are under-represented minorities and forty percent are female. The project is supported by NSF award AGS-1359293 REU Site: CUNY/GISS Center for Global Climate Research.

  10. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

  11. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change.

    PubMed

    Lam, Vicky W Y; Cheung, William W L; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2016-09-07

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries' vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.

  12. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

    2016-09-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.

  13. Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melillo, Jerry M.; Mcguire, A. D.; Kicklighter, David W.; Moore, Berrien, III; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; Schloss, Annette L.

    1993-01-01

    A process-based model was used to estimate global patterns of net primary production and soil nitrogen cycling for contemporary climate conditions and current atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over half of the global annual net primary production was estimated to occur in the tropics, with most of the production attributable to tropical evergreen forest. The effects of CO2 doubling and associated climate changes were also explored. The responses in tropical and dry temperate ecosystems were dominated by CO2, but those in northern and moist temperate ecosystems reflected the effects of temperature on nitrogen availability.

  14. Exploring Local Approaches to Communicating Global Climate Change Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevermer, A. J.

    2002-12-01

    Expected future climate changes are often presented as a global problem, requiring a global solution. Although this statement is accurate, communicating climate change science and prospective solutions must begin at local levels, each with its own subset of complexities to be addressed. Scientific evaluation of local changes can be complicated by large variability occurring over small spatial scales; this variability hinders efforts both to analyze past local changes and to project future ones. The situation is further encumbered by challenges associated with scientific literacy in the U.S., as well as by pressing economic difficulties. For people facing real-life financial and other uncertainties, a projected ``1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius'' rise in global temperature is likely to remain only an abstract concept. Despite this lack of concreteness, recent surveys have found that most U.S. residents believe current global warming science, and an even greater number view the prospect of increased warming as at least a ``somewhat serious'' problem. People will often be able to speak of long-term climate changes in their area, whether observed changes in the amount of snow cover in winter, or in the duration of extreme heat periods in summer. This work will explore the benefits and difficulties of communicating climate change from a local, rather than global, perspective, and seek out possible strategies for making less abstract, more concrete, and most importantly, more understandable information available to the public.

  15. Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Peterson, A Townsend; Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A; Bartley, Jeremy; Sánchez-Cordero, Victor; Soberón, Jorge; Buddemeier, Robert H; Stockwell, David R B

    2002-04-11

    Global climates are changing rapidly, with unexpected consequences. Because elements of biodiversity respond intimately to climate as an important driving force of distributional limitation, distributional shifts and biodiversity losses are expected. Nevertheless, in spite of modelling efforts focused on single species or entire ecosystems, a few preliminary surveys of fauna-wide effects, and evidence of climate change-mediated shifts in several species, the likely effects of climate change on species' distributions remain little known, and fauna-wide or community-level effects are almost completely unexplored. Here, using a genetic algorithm and museum specimen occurrence data, we develop ecological niche models for 1,870 species occurring in Mexico and project them onto two climate surfaces modelled for 2055. Although extinctions and drastic range reductions are predicted to be relatively few, species turnover in some local communities is predicted to be high (>40% of species), suggesting that severe ecological perturbations may result.

  16. The effects of variable biome distribution on global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Noever, D.A.; Brittain, A.; Matsos, H.C.; Baskaran, S.; Obenhuber, D.

    1996-12-31

    In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. The authors develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed trend and order of magnitude change in global temperature. Once backtested in this way on historical data, the model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution which minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search an artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The genetic algorithm assigns various biome distributions to the planet, then adjusts their percentage area and albedo effects to regulate or moderate temperature changes.

  17. Global biomass burning. Atmospheric, climatic, and biospheric implications

    SciTech Connect

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Biomass burning is a significant source of atmospheric gases and, as such, may contribute to global climate changes. Biomass burning includes burning forests and savanna grasslands for land clearing, burning agricultural stubble and waste after harvesting, and burning biomass fuels. The chapters in this volume include the following topics: remote sensing of biomass burning from space;geographical distribution of burning; combustion products of burning in tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems; burning as a global source of atmospheric gases and particulates; impacts of biomass burning gases and particulates on global climate; and the role of biomass burning on biodiversity and past global extinctions. A total of 1428 references are cited for the 63 chapters. Individual chapters are indexed separately for the data bases.

  18. What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?

    PubMed Central

    Sutton, Rowan; Suckling, Emma; Hawkins, Ed

    2015-01-01

    The subject of climate feedbacks focuses attention on global mean surface air temperature (GMST) as the key metric of climate change. But what does knowledge of past and future GMST tell us about the climate of specific regions? In the context of the ongoing UNFCCC process, this is an important question for policy-makers as well as for scientists. The answer depends on many factors, including the mechanisms causing changes, the timescale of the changes, and the variables and regions of interest. This paper provides a review and analysis of the relationship between changes in GMST and changes in local climate, first in observational records and then in a range of climate model simulations, which are used to interpret the observations. The focus is on decadal timescales, which are of particular interest in relation to recent and near-future anthropogenic climate change. It is shown that GMST primarily provides information about forced responses, but that understanding and quantifying internal variability is essential to projecting climate and climate impacts on regional-to-local scales. The relationship between local forced responses and GMST is often linear but may be nonlinear, and can be greatly complicated by competition between different forcing factors. Climate projections are limited not only by uncertainties in the signal of climate change but also by uncertainties in the characteristics of real-world internal variability. Finally, it is shown that the relationship between GMST and local climate provides a simple approach to climate change detection, and a useful guide to attribution studies. PMID:26438282

  19. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.

    PubMed

    Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M; Morse, Andrew P; Colón-González, Felipe J; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J

    2014-03-04

    Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.

  20. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution

    PubMed Central

    Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Morse, Andrew P.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J.

    2014-01-01

    Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. PMID:24596427

  1. Global Climatic Controls On Leaf Size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, I. J.; Prentice, I. C.; Dong, N.; Maire, V.

    2015-12-01

    Since the 1890s it's been known that the wet tropics harbour plants with exceptionally large leaves. Yet the observed latitudinal gradient of leaf size has never been fully explained: it is still unclear which aspects of climate are most important for understanding geographic trends in leaf size, a trait that varies many thousand-fold among species. The key is the leaf-to-air temperature difference, which depends on the balance of energy inputs (irradiance) and outputs (transpirational cooling, losses to the night sky). Smaller leaves track air temperatures more closely than larger leaves. Widely cited optimality-based theories predict an advantage for smaller leaves in dry environments, where transpiration is restricted, but are silent on the latitudinal gradient. We aimed to characterize and explain the worldwide pattern of leaf size. Across 7900 species from 651 sites, here we show that: large-leaved species predominate in wet, hot, sunny environments; smaller-leaved species typify hot, sunny environments only when arid; small leaves are required to avoid freezing in high latitudes and at high elevation, and to avoid overheating in dry environments. This simple pattern was unclear in earlier, more limited analyses. We present a simple but robust, fresh approach to energy-balance modelling for both day-time and night-time leaf-to-air temperature differences, and thus risk of overheating and of frost damage. Our analysis shows night-chilling is important as well as day-heating, and simplifies leaf temperature modelling. It provides both a framework for modelling leaf size constraints, and a solution to one of the oldest conundrums in ecology. Although the path forward is not yet fully clear, because of its role in controlling leaf temperatures we suggest that climate-related leaf size constraints could usefully feature in the next generation of land ecosystem models.

  2. Global vegetation model diversity and the risks of climate-driven ecosystem shifts

    SciTech Connect

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2013-11-08

    Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles, and is expected to exert increasingly large effects in the future. How these changes will in turn affect and interact with the structure and function of particular ecosystems is unclear, however, both because of scientific uncertainties and the very diversity of global vegetation models in use. Writing in Environmental Research Letters, Warszawski et al. (1) aggregate results from a group of models, across a range of emissions scenarios and climate data, to investigate these risks. Although the models frequently disagree about which specific regions are at risk, they consistently predict a greater chance of ecosystem restructuring with more warming; this risk roughly doubles between 2 and 3 °C increases in global mean temperature. The innovative work of Warszawski et al. represents an important first step towards fully consistent multi-model, multi-scenario assessments of the future risks to global ecosystems.

  3. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

    PubMed

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

    2012-01-10

    We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21(st) century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20(th)-century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21(st)-century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

  4. Global climate change is confounding species conservation strategies.

    PubMed

    Koopowitz, Harold; Hawkins, Bradford A

    2012-06-01

    Most organisms face similar problems with respect to their conservation in the face of global climate change. Here, we examine probable effects of climate change on the hyperdiverse plant family Orchidaceae. In the 20th century, the major concerns for orchid conservation revolved around unsustainable harvest for the orchid trade and, more importantly, land conversion from natural ecosystems to those unable to support wild orchid populations. Land conversion included logging, fire regimes and forest conversions to agricultural systems. Although those forms of degradation continue, an additional suite of threats has emerged, fueled by global climate change. Global climate change involves more than responses of orchid populations to increases in ambient temperature. Increasing temperature induces secondary effects that can be more significant than simple changes in temperature. Among these new threats are extended and prolonged fire seasons, rising sea levels, increases in cyclonic storms, seasonal climate shifts, changes in orthographic wind dew point and increased drought. The long-term outlook for orchid biodiversity in the wild is dismal, as it is for many animal groups, and we need to start rethinking strategies for conservation in a rapidly changing world.

  5. IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTION ON SUSTAINABILITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation presents the potential impacts that global climate change may have on the quality and quantity of water available to drinking water and wastewater treatment systems and the adaptations these systems might have to employ in order to remain in regulatory complianc...

  6. MODELING THE IMPACT OF AIR POLLUTION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Tropospheric ozone (O3) and aerosols have major effects on climate and are the two air pollutants of most concern in the developed world. O3 is a major greenhouse gas (GHG) and light-absorbing aerosols such as black carbon (BC) also contribute to global warm...

  7. Linking Urban Air Pollution to Global Tropospheric Chemistry and Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Chien

    2005-01-01

    The two major tasks of this project are to study: (a) the impact of urban nonlinear chemistry on chemical budgets of key pollutants in non-urban areas; and (b) the influence of air pollution control strategies in selected metropolitan areas, particularly of emerging economies in East and South Asia, on tropospheric chemistry and hence on regional and global climate.

  8. Mechanistic Toxicology in the Face of Global Climate Change

    EPA Science Inventory

    To incorporate effects of global climate change (GCC) into regulatory assessments of chemical risk, damage and restoration needs, an understanding is needed of GCC effects on mechanisms of chemical toxicity and the implications of those effects when placed in context with GCC eff...

  9. Global climate change--The technology challenge: China

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population growth and developmental pressures, spawned by an increasing demand for resource intensive goods, foods and services, are altering the planet in ways that threaten the long-term well-being of humans and other species. Global climate change and its associated impacts is...

  10. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  11. Achieving Global Ocean Color Climate Data Records

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Franz, Bryan

    2010-01-01

    Ocean color, or the spectral distribution of visible light upwelling from beneath the ocean surface, carries information on the composition and concentration of biological constituents within the water column. The CZCS mission in 1978 demonstrated that quantitative ocean color measurements could be. made from spaceborne sensors, given sufficient corrections for atmospheric effects and a rigorous calibration and validation program. The launch of SeaWiFS in 1997 represents the beginning of NASA's ongoing efforts to develop a continuous ocean color data record with sufficient coverage and fidelity for global change research. Achievements in establishing and maintaining the consistency of the time-series through multiple missions and varying instrument designs will be highlighted in this talk, including measurements from NASA'S MODIS instruments currently flying on the Terra and Aqua platforms, as well as the MERIS sensor flown by ESA and the OCM-2 sensor recently launched by ISRO.

  12. Global climate and infectious disease: The cholera paradigm

    SciTech Connect

    Colwell, R.R.

    1996-12-20

    Historically, infectious diseases have had a profound effect on human populations, including their evolution and cultural development. Despite significant advances in medical science, infectious diseases continue to impact human populations in many parts of the world. Emerging diseases are considered to be those infections that either are newly appearing in the population or are rapidly increasing in incidence or expanding in geographic range. Emergence of disease is not a simple phenomenon, mainly because infectious diseases are dynamic. Most new infections are not caused by truly new pathogens but are microorganisms (viruses, bacteria, fungi, protozoa, and helminths) that find a new way to enter a susceptible host and are newly recognized because of recently developed, sensitive techniques. Human activities drive emergence of disease and a variety of social, economic, political, climatic, technological, and environmental factors can shape the pattern of a disease and influence its emergence into populations. For example, travel affects emergence of disease, and human migrations have been the main source of epidemics throughout history. Trade caravans, religious pilgrimage, and military campaigns facilitated the spread of plague, smallpox, and cholera. Global travel is a fact of modern life and, equally so, the continued evolution of microorganisms; therefore, new infections will continue to emerge, and known infections will change in distribution, frequency, and severity. 88 refs., 1 fig.

  13. Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

    PubMed

    Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

    2000-07-14

    The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

  14. Quantifying Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to Global Warming Pattern Formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, X.; Zhang, G. J.; Cai, M.

    2013-12-01

    The ';';climate feedback-response analysis method'' (CFRAM) was applied to the NCAR CCSM3.0 simulation to analyze the strength and spatial distribution of climate feedbacks and to quantify their contributions to global and regional surface temperature changes in response to a doubling of CO2. Instead of analyzing the climate sensitivity, the CFRAM directly attributes the temperature change to individual radiative and non-radiative feedbacks. The radiative feedback decomposition is based on hourly model output rather than monthly mean data that are commonly used in climate feedback analysis. This gives a more accurate quantification of the cloud and albedo feedbacks. The process-based decomposition of non-radiative feedback enables us to understand the roles of GCM physical and dynamic processes in climate change. The pattern correlation, the centered root-mean-square (RMS) difference and the ratio of variations (represented by standard deviations) between the partial surface temperature change due to each feedback process and the total surface temperature change in CCSM3.0 simulation are examined to quantify the roles of each feedback process in the global warming pattern formation. The contributions of climate feedbacks to the regional warming are also discussed.

  15. Emissions and climate forcing from global and Arctic fishing vessels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKuin, Brandi; Campbell, J. Elliott

    2016-02-01

    Fishing vessels were recently found to be the largest source of black carbon ship emissions in the Arctic, suggesting that the fishing sector should be a focus for future studies. Here we developed a global and Arctic emissions inventory for fishing vessel emissions of short-lived and long-lived climate forcers based on data from a wide range of vessel sizes, fuel sulfur contents, engine types, and operational characteristics. We found that previous work generally underestimated emissions of short-lived climate forcers due to a failure to account for small fishing vessels as well as variability in emission factors. In particular, global black carbon emissions were underestimated by an order of magnitude. Furthermore, our order of magnitude estimate of the net climate effect from these fishing vessel emissions suggests that short-lived climate forcing may be particularly important in regions where fuel has a low sulfur content. These results have implications for proposed maritime policies and provide a foundation for future climate simulations to forecast climate change impacts in the Arctic.

  16. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G; Ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

  17. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Schut, Antonius G. T.; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.; ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982–2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17–36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1–2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity. PMID:26466347

  18. The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefer, Kevin; Lantuit, Hugues; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Witt, Ronald

    2014-08-01

    Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to CO2 and CH4 emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120 ± 85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7 ± 4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29 ± 0.21 °C or 7.8 ± 5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 °C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 °C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 °C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation.

  19. Global Climate Change and Children’s Health: Threats and Strategies for Prevention

    PubMed Central

    Sheffield, Perry E.; Landrigan, Philip J.

    2011-01-01

    Background Global climate change will have multiple effects on human health. Vulnerable populations—children, the elderly, and the poor—will be disproportionately affected. Objective We reviewed projected impacts of climate change on children’s health, the pathways involved in these effects, and prevention strategies. Data sources We assessed primary studies, review articles, and organizational reports. Data synthesis Climate change is increasing the global burden of disease and in the year 2000 was responsible for > 150,000 deaths worldwide. Of this disease burden, 88% fell upon children. Documented health effects include changing ranges of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue; increased diarrheal and respiratory disease; increased morbidity and mortality from extreme weather; changed exposures to toxic chemicals; worsened poverty; food and physical insecurity; and threats to human habitation. Heat-related health effects for which research is emerging include diminished school performance, increased rates of pregnancy complications, and renal effects. Stark variation in these outcomes is evident by geographic region and socioeconomic status, and these impacts will exacerbate health disparities. Prevention strategies to reduce health impacts of climate change include reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation through multiple public health interventions. Conclusions Further quantification of the effects of climate change on children’s health is needed globally and also at regional and local levels through enhanced monitoring of children’s environmental health and by tracking selected indicators. Climate change preparedness strategies need to be incorporated into public health programs. PMID:20947468

  20. Understanding coupled climatic, hydrological, and ecosystem responses to global climate change in the Colorado Rockies

    SciTech Connect

    Stohlgren, T.J.; Baron, J. )

    1993-06-01

    A long-term research program to assess the potential effect of global climate change on the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies, including Rocky Mountain National Park is underway. Specifically, three integrated studies are designed to: (1) project future climate change for the Colorado Rockies using a mesoscale atmospheric model to downscale general circulation model results; (2) develop an understanding of the abiotic and biotic controls on forest distribution and productivity as a basis for assessing potential vegetation change for a range of projected climate scenarios; and (3) evaluate potential responses of hydrologic and aquatic ecosystem processes to climate change at watershed, drainage basin and regional scales. The synthesis of these studies will, in addition, assess the interaction between regional vegetation distribution, mesoscale climate, and hydrology. Our goal is to develop a better understanding of regional climate and hydrologic patterns and of species-environment relationships to determine which species and ecosystem processes are most sensitive to rapid environmental change.

  1. Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

    SciTech Connect

    Kukla, G.; Gavin, J.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

  2. Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming

    PubMed Central

    De Saedeleer, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr — not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth’s climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates — except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature. PMID:26813867

  3. Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming.

    PubMed

    De Saedeleer, Bernard

    2016-01-27

    Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr - not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth's climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates - except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature.

  4. Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

    2009-12-01

    Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The

  5. Climate Mitigation Policy Implications for Global Irrigation Water Demand

    SciTech Connect

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-08-22

    Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which values terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to lead to increased demand for water for agricultural systems (+200%), even in the absence of climate change. In general policies to mitigate climate change will increase agricultural demands for water, regardless of whether or not terrestrial carbon is valued or not. Burgeoning demands for water are driven by the demand for bioenergy in response to emissions mitigation policies. We also find that the policy matters. Increases in the demand for water when terrestrial carbon emissions go un-prices are vastly larger than when terrestrial system carbon emissions are prices at the same rate as fossil fuel and industrial emissions. Our estimates for increased water demands when terrestrial carbon systems go un-priced are larger than earlier studies. We find that the deployment of improved irrigation delivery systems could mitigate some of the increase in water demands, but cannot reverse the increases in water demands when terrestrial carbon

  6. Engaging the Global South on climate engineering research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winickoff, David E.; Flegal, Jane A.; Asrat, Asfawossen

    2015-07-01

    The Global South is relatively under-represented in public deliberations about solar radiation management (SRM), a controversial climate engineering concept. This Perspective analyses the outputs of a deliberative exercise about SRM, which took place at the University of California-Berkeley and involved 45 mid-career environmental leaders, 39 of whom were from the Global South. This analysis identifies and discusses four themes from the Berkeley workshop that might inform research and governance in this arena: (1) the 'moral hazard' problem should be reframed to emphasize 'moral responsibility'; (2) climate models of SRM deployment may not be credible as primary inputs to policy because they cannot sufficiently address local concerns such as access to water; (3) small outdoor experiments require some form of international public accountability; and (4) inclusion of actors from the Global South will strengthen both SRM research and governance.

  7. No easy answers for global climate change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wakefield, J.

    First the word was that not only car emissions but cow burps may play a significant role in global warming. Then, the story turned to rice paddies and cockroaches as likely sources of greenhouse gases. Sound confusing? It should.Now even experts readily admit global warming research is chock-full of uncertainties. And these issues offer only a freeze-frame of the broader climate change motion picture. Everything from whether sea levels will rise to whether hurricanes will be come more frequent to whether solar forcing plays a role in all of this is now in question. This means that making and implementing effective international climate change policies remains a tenuous process—even at a time when the overall funding for global change research is at an all-time high in the United States.

  8. Visualization of the chains of risks under global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yoshimori, M.; Iwase, K.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Honda, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Ito, A.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Emori, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by

  9. A Global Framework for Monitoring Phenological Responses to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    White, Michael A; Hoffman, Forrest M; Hargrove, William Walter; Nemani, Ramakrishna R

    2005-01-01

    Remote sensing of vegetation phenology is an important method with which to monitor terrestrial responses to climate change, but most approaches include signals from multiple forcings, such as mixed phenological signals from multiple biomes, urbanization, political changes, shifts in agricultural practices, and disturbances. Consequently, it is difficult to extract a clear signal from the usually assumed forcing: climate change. Here, using global 8 km 1982 to 1999 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and an eight-element monthly climatology, we identified pixels whose wavelet power spectrum was consistently dominated by annual cycles and then created phenologically and climatically self-similar clusters, which we term phenoregions. We then ranked and screened each phenoregion as a function of landcover homogeneity and consistency, evidence of human impacts, and political diversity. Remaining phenoregions represented areas with a minimized probability of non-climatic forcings and form elemental units for long-term phenological monitoring.

  10. Self-regulation in land plant and global climate interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morel, V.; dePolo, P.; Matsumoto, K.

    2013-12-01

    The interactions between land plants and climate have long been recognized. As global climate change occurs, there is a necessity to understand the sensitivity of vegetation and the surrounding physical environment to these changes. In this study, we use MESMO-2E, an earth system model of intermediate complexity, to investigate the response of climate and land plants to changes in the optimal growth conditions of the plants (temperature and ambient carbon dioxide level). In an initial set of sensitivity experiments, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, and consequently the air temperature, were reduced as the climate changed from pre-industrial to glacial conditions. As the optimal temperature and carbon dioxide levels were changed to be similar to that of the glacial environment, an increase in carbon vegetation and air temperature was observed, suggesting a self-regulation mechanism. Results of further sensitivity experiments that work to identify the self-regulation mechanism will be presented.

  11. Global climate change and the mitigation challenge.

    PubMed

    Princiotta, Frank

    2009-10-01

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8 degrees C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO2 emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5 degrees C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO2 emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required.

  12. Global climate change and the mitigation challenge

    SciTech Connect

    Frank Princiotta

    2009-10-15

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8{sup o}C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO{sub 2} emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5{sup o}C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO{sub 2} emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required. 20 refs., 18 figs., 4 tabs.

  13. Water - The key to global change. [of weather and climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soffen, Gerald A.

    1988-01-01

    The role of water in processes of global change is discussed. The importance of water in global warming, the loss of biological diversity, the activity of the El Nino southern oscillation, and the melting of polar ice are examined. Plans for a mission to measure tropical rainfall using a two frequency radar, a visible/IR radiometer and a passive microwave radiometer are noted. The way in which global change is affected by changes in patterns of available water is considered.

  14. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): status of implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucio, Filipe

    2014-05-01

    The GFCS is a global partnership of governments and UN and international agencies that produce and use climate information and services. WMO, which is leading the initiative in collaboration with UN ISDR, WHO, WFP, FAO, UNESCO, UNDP and other UN and international partners are pooling their expertise and resources in order to co-design and co-produce knowledge, information and services to support effective decision making in response to climate variability and change in four priority areas (agriculture and fod security, water, health and disaster risk reduction). To address the entire value chain for the effective production and application of climate services the GFCS main components or pillars are being implemented, namely: • User Interface Platform — to provide ways for climate service users and providers to interact to identify needs and capacities and improve the effectiveness of the Framework and its climate services; • Climate Services Information System — to produce and distribute climate data, products and information according to the needs of users and to agreed standards; • Observations and Monitoring - to generate the necessary data for climate services according to agreed standards; • Research, Modelling and Prediction — to harness science capabilities and results and develop appropriate tools to meet the needs of climate services; • Capacity Building — to support the systematic development of the institutions, infrastructure and human resources needed for effective climate services. Activities are being implemented in various countries in Africa, the Caribbean and South pacific Islands. This paper will provide details on the status of implementation of the GFCS worldwider.

  15. Importance of Sea Ice for Validating Global Climate Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Geiger, Cathleen A.

    1997-01-01

    Reproduction of current day large-scale physical features and processes is a critical test of global climate model performance. Without this benchmark, prognoses of future climate conditions are at best speculation. A fundamental question relevant to this issue is, which processes and observations are both robust and sensitive enough to be used for model validation and furthermore are they also indicators of the problem at hand? In the case of global climate, one of the problems at hand is to distinguish between anthropogenic and naturally occuring climate responses. The polar regions provide an excellent testing ground to examine this problem because few humans make their livelihood there, such that anthropogenic influences in the polar regions usually spawn from global redistribution of a source originating elsewhere. Concomitantly, polar regions are one of the few places where responses to climate are non-anthropogenic. Thus, if an anthropogenic effect has reached the polar regions (e.g. the case of upper atmospheric ozone sensitivity to CFCs), it has most likely had an impact globally but is more difficult to sort out from local effects in areas where anthropogenic activity is high. Within this context, sea ice has served as both a monitoring platform and sensitivity parameter of polar climate response since the time of Fridtjof Nansen. Sea ice resides in the polar regions at the air-sea interface such that changes in either the global atmospheric or oceanic circulation set up complex non-linear responses in sea ice which are uniquely determined. Sea ice currently covers a maximum of about 7% of the earth's surface but was completely absent during the Jurassic Period and far more extensive during the various ice ages. It is also geophysically very thin (typically <10 m in Arctic, <3 m in Antarctic) compared to the troposphere (roughly 10 km) and deep ocean (roughly 3 to 4 km). Because of these unique conditions, polar researchers regard sea ice as one of the

  16. Global climate change and health: developing a research agenda for the NIH.

    PubMed

    Rosenthal, Joshua P; Jessup, Christine M

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change is receiving worldwide attention because of its anticipated impacts on the Earth's physical and biological systems. Through its effects on natural and human environments, climate change will likely impact economic viability and human health and well-being. The impact of climate change on human health is likely to be complex and significant, including effects on cancers, cardiovascular and respiratory disease, food-, water-, and vector-borne diseases, heat-related illness, mental and social well-being, nutrition, trauma, and vulnerable demographic sectors. Most assessments predict that these effects will disproportionately affect the poor, the elderly and the young, especially those living in Africa and Southeast Asia, where environmental conditions are poor, health infrastructure is weak and the burden of disease is great. Enormous efforts are underway to plan and finance climate change adaptation programs within national governments (including multiple U.S. agencies), United Nations organizations and private philanthropies. However, these endeavors are proceeding with a relatively poor understanding of the nature and magnitude of probable effects of climate change on health. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) already funds a portfolio of projects that are indirectly related to the concerns posed by global climate change. At the NIH, we have recently established an agency-wide planning group to assess the research questions in health and medicine that climate change presents, to link this agenda to parallel activities across other agencies of the U.S. Government (USG), and to advance a NIH research agenda in this area.

  17. Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

    2015-09-01

    Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation. Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation - wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations comprise Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), sensitivity tests for the effect of climate and CO2, as well as a sensitivity analysis using two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or

  18. Carbon's corner in the global climate challange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liddicoat, Joseph

    2010-05-01

    Unlike on other planets in the Solar System, most of the carbon in carbon dioxide (CO2) that degassed from Earth during its formation nearly 4.5 billion years ago is in limestone as the mineral calcite (CaCO3). Consequently, the small percentage (about 0.04) of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere can be changed easily by the combustion of fossil fuels. Since the early 1950s when accurate measurements of atmospheric CO2 began, it has been documented that the amount of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere is increasing at an exponential rate (Report of U.S. National Academy of Science, 2007). This course is a science elective that embraces the ideals of SENCER (Science Education for New Civic Engagements and Responsibilities) that connects science and civic engagement by teaching through complex, contested, current, and unresolved societal issues to basic science. Specifically, the instruction invites students to put scientific knowledge and the scientific method to practical use on matters of immediate interest not only to the students but also to the general public. This is done through a careful examination of the ecological and environmental issues surrounding the build-up of CO2 in the atmosphere as presented in CO2 Rising - The World's Greatest Environmental Challenge by Tyler Volk. A reflective reading of Volk's non-technical but engaging book, complemented by weekly 180-minutes of in-class instruction, results in an understanding of topics that are necessary for an informed public that continues the discussion about catastrophic global warming that might result from unchecked burning of fossil fuels by humans.

  19. Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and Forestry: Implications of Global Climate Stabilization

    EPA Science Inventory

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. Although there have been n...

  20. Mitigation/adaptation and health: health policymaking in the global response to climate change and implications for other upstream determinants.

    PubMed

    Wiley, Lindsay F

    2010-01-01

    The time is ripe for innovation in global health governance if we are to achieve global health and development objectives in the face of formidable challenges. Integration of global health concerns into the law and governance of other, related disciplines should be given high priority. This article explores opportunities for health policymaking in the global response to climate change. Climate change and environmental degradation will affect weather disasters, food and water security, infectious disease patterns, and air pollution. Although scientific research has pointed to the interdependence of the global environment and human health, policymakers have been slow to integrate their approaches to environmental and health concerns. A robust response to climate change will require improved integration on two fronts: health concerns must be given higher priority in the response to climate change and threats associated with climate change and environmental degradation must be more adequately addressed by global health law and governance. The mitigation/adaptation response paradigm developing within and beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change provides a useful framework for thinking about global health law and governance with respect to climate change, environmental degradation, and possibly other upstream determinants of health as well.

  1. Shifting Global Invasive Potential of European Plants with Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Peterson, A. Townsend; Stewart, Aimee; Mohamed, Kamal I.; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2008-01-01

    Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species. PMID:18560572

  2. Global patterns in endemism explained by past climatic change.

    PubMed

    Jansson, Roland

    2003-03-22

    I propose that global patterns in numbers of range-restricted endemic species are caused by variation in the amplitude of climatic change occurring on time-scales of 10-100 thousand years (Milankovitch oscillations). The smaller the climatic shifts, the more probable it is that palaeoendemics survive and that diverging gene pools persist without going extinct or merging, favouring the evolution of neoendemics. Using the change in mean annual temperature since the last glacial maximum, estimated from global circulation models, I show that the higher the temperature change in an area, the fewer endemic species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and vascular plants it harbours. This relationship was robust to variation in area (for areas greater than 10(4) km2), latitudinal position, extent of former glaciation and whether or not areas are oceanic islands. Past climatic change was a better predictor of endemism than annual temperature range in all phylads except amphibians, suggesting that Rapoport's rule (i.e. species range sizes increase with latitude) is best explained by the increase in the amplitude of climatic oscillations towards the poles. Globally, endemic-rich areas are predicted to warm less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions, but the predicted warming would cause many habitats to disappear regionally, leading to species extinctions.

  3. The economics of long-term global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  4. Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change.

    PubMed

    Peterson, A Townsend; Stewart, Aimee; Mohamed, Kamal I; Araújo, Miguel B

    2008-06-18

    Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species.

  5. Global surface water quality hotspots under climate change and anthropogenic developments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Yearsley, John R.

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, freshwater usage for various sectors (e.g. agriculture, industry, energy and domestic) has more than doubled. A growing global population will place further demands on water supplies, whereas the availability and quality of water resources will be affected by climate change and human impacts. These developments will increase imbalances between fresh water demand and supply in terms of both water quantity and water quality. Here we discuss a methodology to identify regions of the world where surface water quality is expected to deteriorate under climate change and anthropogenic developments. Our approach integrates global hydrological-water quality modelling, climate and socio-economic scenarios and relations of water quality with physical and socio-economic drivers.

  6. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

    SciTech Connect

    Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J. |; Niessen, L.W.; Jetten, T.H.; McMichael, A.J.

    1995-05-01

    The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  7. Global semi-arid climate change over last 60 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Jianping; Ji, Mingxia; Xie, Yongkun; Wang, Shanshan; He, Yongli; Ran, Jinjiang

    2016-02-01

    This study analyzes areal changes and regional climate variations in global semi-arid regions over 61 years (1948-2008) and investigates the dynamics of global semi-arid climate change. The results reveal that the largest expansion of drylands has occurred in semi-arid regions since the early 1960s. This expansion of semi-arid regions accounts for more than half of the total dryland expansion. The area of semi-arid regions in the most recent 15 years studied (1990-2004) is 7 % larger than that during the first 15 years (1948-1962) of the study period; this expansion totaled 0.4 × 106 and 1.2 × 106 km2 within the American continents and in the Eastern Hemisphere, respectively. Although semi-arid expansion occurred in both regions, the shifting patterns of the expansion are different. Across the American continents, the newly formed semi-arid regions developed from arid regions, in which the climate became wetter. Conversely, in the continental Eastern Hemisphere, semi-arid regions replaced sub-humid/humid regions, in which the climate became drier. The climate change in drying semi-arid regions over East Asia is primarily dominated by a weakened East Asian summer monsoon, while the wetting of semi-arid regions over North America is primarily controlled by enhanced westerlies.

  8. Global semi-arid climate change over last 60 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Mingxia; Huang, Jianping

    2016-04-01

    This study analyzes areal changes and regional climate variations in global semi-arid regions over 61 years (1948-2008) and investigates the dynamics of global semi- arid climate change. The results reveal that the largest expansion of drylands has occurred in semi-arid regions since the early 1960s. This expansion of semi-arid regions accounts for more than half of the total dryland expansion. The area of semi-arid regions in the most recent 15 years studied (1990-2004) is 7 % larger than that during the first 15 years (1948-1962) of the study period; this expansion totaled 0.4×106 and 1.2×106 km2 within the American continents and in the Eastern Hemisphere, respectively. Although semi-arid expansion occurred in both regions, the shifting patterns of the expansion are different. Across the American continents, the newly formed semi-arid regions developed from arid regions, in which the climate became wetter. Conversely, in the continental Eastern Hemisphere, semi-arid regions replaced sub-humid/humid regions, in which the climate became drier. The climate change in drying semi-arid regions over East Asia is primarily dominated by a weakened East Asian summer monsoon, while the wetting of semi-arid regions over North America is primarily controlled by enhanced westerlies.

  9. Fracking in the face of global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peterson, P.; Gautier, C.

    2015-12-01

    Until recently, "peak oil" was regarded as imminent. Now, however, the recent rapid increase in US oil and gas production from shale exploitation has delayed peak oil. This delay raises grave climate concerns. The development of new technologies (such as horizontal drilling) means that enormous unconventional reserves distributed worldwide may be readily recoverable, with large negative consequences on the global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory. If even a small portion of these unconventional reserves were exploited, it is highly likely that limiting global Earth warming to 2ºC, a goal being discussed for COP 21, will be impossible. Instead, tipping points in the climate system will likely be reached, with serious effects, including greatly accelerated ice melting, leading to large and unstoppable global sea level rise. The enthusiasm for shale gas stems in part from its potential role as a bridge fuel to wean the country from coal until low-carbon alternatives come into full play. However, shale gas and oil production entail direct adverse environmental impacts (air and water pollution, induced earthquakes and public health risks) that are only now coming to light. Gas production through fracking also has severe impacts on climate through the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that leaks from production sites. In intensive fracking regions, high methane concentrations are measured on the ground and are now detectable in satellite data. Proponents of gas fracking argue that with the right policies to protect communities and the environment, natural gas can be harnessed as part of a broad climate strategy. But opponents of gas fracking believe that no regulation will be adequate to protect communities and the local environment. They also fear that natural gas produced through fracking will delay progress toward a carbon-free future. We will explore the consequences for the global climate of exploiting these very large oil and gas resources.

  10. Why ocean heat transport warms the global mean climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herweijer, Celine; Seager, Richard; Winton, Michael; Clement, Amy

    2005-08-01

    Observational and modelling evidence suggest that poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) can vary in response to both natural climate variability and greenhouse warming. Recent modelling studies have shown that increased OHT warms both the tropical and global mean climates. Using two different coupled climate models with mixed-layer oceans, with and without OHT, along with a coupled model with a fixed-current ocean component in which the currents are uniformly reduced and increased by 50%, an attempt is made to explain why this may happen.OHT warms the global mean climate by 1 to 1.6K in the atmospheric general circulation (AGCM) ML model and 3.5K in the AGCM fixed current model. In each model the warming is attributed to an increase in atmospheric greenhouse trapping, primarily clear-sky greenhouse trapping, and a reduction in albedo. This occurs as OHT moistens the atmosphere, particularly at subtropical latitudes. This is not purely a thermodynamic response to the reduction in planetary albedo at these latitudes. It is a change in atmospheric circulation that both redistributes the water vapour and allows for a global atmospheric moistening—a positive 'dynamical' water vapour feedback. With increasing OHT the atmospheric water vapour content increases as atmospheric convection spreads out of the deep tropics. The global mean planetary albedo is decreased with increased OHT. This change is explained by a decrease in subtropical and mid-latitude low cloudiness, along with a reduction in high-latitude surface albedo due to decreased sea ice. The climate models with the mixed layer oceans underestimate both the subtropical low cloud cover and the high-latitude sea ice/surface albedo, and consequently have a smaller warming response to OHT.

  11. Global climate and the distribution of plant biomes.

    PubMed

    Woodward, F I; Lomas, M R; Kelly, C K

    2004-10-29

    Biomes are areas of vegetation that are characterized by the same life-form. Traditional definitions of biomes have also included either geographical or climatic descriptors. This approach describes a wide range of biomes that can be correlated with characteristic climatic conditions, or climatic envelopes. The application of remote sensing technology to the frequent observation of biomes has led to a move away from the often subjective definition of biomes to one that is objective. Carefully characterized observations of life-form, by satellite, have been used to reconsider biome classification and their climatic envelopes. Five major tree biomes can be recognized by satellites based on leaf longevity and morphology: needleleaf evergreen, broadleaf evergreen, needleleaf deciduous, broadleaf cold deciduous and broadleaf drought deciduous. Observations indicate that broadleaf drought deciduous vegetation grades substantially into broadleaf evergreen vegetation. The needleleaf deciduous biome occurs in the world's coldest climates, where summer drought and therefore a drought deciduous biome are absent. Traditional biome definitions are quite static, implying no change in their life-form composition with time, within their particular climatic envelopes. However, this is not the case where there has been global ingress of grasslands and croplands into forested vegetation. The global spread of grasses, a new super-biome, was probably initiated 30-45 Myr ago by an increase in global aridity, and was driven by the natural spread of the disturbances of fire and animal grazing. These disturbances have been further extended over the Holocene era by human activities that have increased the land areas available for domestic animal grazing and for growing crops. The current situation is that grasses now occur in most, if not all biomes, and in many areas they dominate and define the biome. Croplands are also increasing, defining a new and relatively recent component to the

  12. Incorporating global climate change exercises into historical geology courses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooper, C. M.; Baldwin, K.

    2011-12-01

    Historical geology courses examine the patterns of the Earth's history including both Earth resources and climate change. Though a natural fit for these courses, there is a dearth of information and exercises on global climate change and sustainability integrated within existing Historical Geology laboratory and lecture texts; paradoxically, there is a wealth of educational material on climate change. While educational resources on global climate change are made available to educators, how to incorporate those resources into an existing historical geology curriculum is not explicit. Issues of sustainability, such as global climate change, allows the course to engage students (both science and non-science majors) into topics that are relevant to today's society, while examining the Earth's past history for support of their understanding of Earth's cycles. This often serves as a point of disconnect for students - how do deep time concepts taught in the course relate to their day to day life? To bridge this gap, we have compiled inquiry based lab exercises allowing student ownership of sustainability concepts that lecture alone does not provide. We will present initial assessment of student learning through a formative assessment survey to determine their current content knowledge as well as their beliefs about sustainability and climate change. This survey will also examine their preconceptions about how historical geology connects with modern day issues of sustainability. We will compare these survey results with a summative assessment designed to mirror the pre-survey questions and discuss the implications of the study. We will expand the course exercises and assessment to an online course offered in the spring.

  13. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics.

    PubMed

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, Callum R; Leech, Dave I; van de Pol, Martijn

    2016-06-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species.

  14. Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jolly, W. Matt; Cochrane, Mark A.; Freeborn, Patrick H.; Holden, Zachary A.; Brown, Timothy J.; Williamson, Grant J.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

    2015-07-01

    Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km2 (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km2 (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. If these fire weather changes are coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, they could markedly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate.

  15. Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013.

    PubMed

    Jolly, W Matt; Cochrane, Mark A; Freeborn, Patrick H; Holden, Zachary A; Brown, Timothy J; Williamson, Grant J; Bowman, David M J S

    2015-07-14

    Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km(2) (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km(2) (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. If these fire weather changes are coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, they could markedly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate.

  16. How will climate change affect vine behaviour in different soils?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leibar, Urtzi; Aizpurua, Ana; Morales, Fermin; Pascual, Inmaculada; Unamunzaga, Olatz

    2014-05-01

    and water-deficit had a clear influence on the grape phenological development and composition, whilst soil affected root configuration and anthocyanins concentration. Effects of climate change and water availability on different soil conditions should be considered to take full advantage or mitigate the consequences of the future climate conditions.

  17. Climate change will affect the Asian water towers.

    PubMed

    Immerzeel, Walter W; van Beek, Ludovicus P H; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2010-06-11

    More than 1.4 billion people depend on water from the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, and Yellow rivers. Upstream snow and ice reserves of these basins, important in sustaining seasonal water availability, are likely to be affected substantially by climate change, but to what extent is yet unclear. Here, we show that meltwater is extremely important in the Indus basin and important for the Brahmaputra basin, but plays only a modest role for the Ganges, Yangtze, and Yellow rivers. A huge difference also exists between basins in the extent to which climate change is predicted to affect water availability and food security. The Brahmaputra and Indus basins are most susceptible to reductions of flow, threatening the food security of an estimated 60 million people.

  18. Estimating maximum global wind power availability and associated climatic consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Lee; Gans, Fabian; Kleidon, Axel

    2010-05-01

    Estimating maximum global wind power availability and associated climatic consequences Wind speed reflects the continuous generation of kinetic energy and its dissipation, primarily in the atmospheric boundary layer. When wind turbines extract kinetic wind energy, less kinetic energy remains in the atmosphere in the mean state. While this effect does not play a significant role for a single turbine, it becomes a critical factor for the estimation of large-scale wind power availability. This extraction of kinetic energy by turbines also competes with the natural processes of kinetic energy dissipation, thus setting fundamental limits on extractability that are not considered in previous large-scale studies [1,2,3]. Our simple momentum balance model using ECMWF climate data illustrates a fundamental limit to global wind power extractability and thereby electricity potential (93TW). This is independent of engineering advances in turbine design and wind farm layout. These results are supported by similar results using a global climate model of intermediate complexity. Varying the surface drag coefficient with different simulations allows us to directly relate changes in atmospheric and boundary layer dissipation with resulting climate indices and wind power potential. These new estimates of the maximum power generation by wind turbines are well above the currently installed capacity. Hence, present day installations are unlikely to have a global impact. However, when compared to the current human energy demand of 17TW combined with plans by the US and EU to drastically increase onshore and offshore wind turbine installations [4,5,6], understanding the climatic response and ultimate limitations of wind power as a large-scale renewable energy source is critical. [1] Archer, C., and M.Z. Jacobson, (2005) Evaluation of global wind power, J. Geophys. Res. 110:D12110. [2] Lu, X., M.B. McElroy, and J. Kiviluoma, (2009) Global potential for wind-generated electricity, Proc

  19. Climate change adaptation: where does global health fit in the agenda?

    PubMed

    Bowen, Kathryn J; Friel, Sharon

    2012-05-27

    Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities.

  20. Climate change adaptation: Where does global health fit in the agenda?

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities. PMID:22632569

  1. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): status of implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucio, Filipe

    2015-04-01

    The World Climate Conference-3 (Geneva 2009) unanimously decided to establish the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), a UN-led initiative spearheaded by WMO to guide the development and application of science-based climate information and services in support of decision-making in climate sensitive sectors. By promoting science-based decision-making, the GFCS is empowering governments, communities and companies to build climate resilience, reduce vulnerabilities and adapt to impacts. The initial priority areas of GFCS are Agriculture and Food Security; Disaster Risk Reduction; Health; and Water Resources. The implementation of GFCS is well underway with a governance structure now fully established. The governance structure of GFCS includes the Partner Advisory Committee (PAC), which is GFCS's stakeholder engagement mechanism. The membership of the PAC allows for a broad participation of stakeholders. The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the European Commission (EC), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), the Global Water Partnership (GWP), the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), the World Food Programme (WFP) and WMO have already joined the PAC. Activities are being implemented in various countries in Africa, the Caribbean, Asia and Pacific Small Islands Developing States through flagship projects and activities in the four priority areas of GFCS to enable the development of a Proof of Concept. The focus at national level is on strengthening institutional capacities needed for development of capacities for co-design and co-production of climate services and their application in support of decision-making in climate sensitive

  2. Exploring the diversity of climates on terrestrial exoplanets using a generic 3D Global Climate Model (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forget, F.; Leconte, J.; Wordsworth, R.; Millour, E.; Charnay, B.

    2013-12-01

    What kind of environment may exist on terrestrial planets around other stars? In spite of the lack of direct observations, it may not be premature to speculate on the possible exoplanetary climates, for instance to optimize future telescopic observations, or to assess the probability of habitable worlds in the galaxy. A first major question is to imagine the possible atmospheric composition surface volatile inventory. This depends on complex processes which are difficult to model: origins of volatile, atmospheric escape, geochemistry, long-term photochemistry. However, assuming that the atmosphere is known, the possible climates on a given planet around a given star can be explored using 3D Global Climate Models (GCMs) analogous to the ones developed to simulate the Earth climate as well as the other telluric atmospheres in the solar system. Our experience with the Earth, Mars, Titan and Venus suggests that relatively complete and realistic climate simulators can be developed by combining a few components like a dynamical core, a radiative transfer solver, a parametrisation of subgrid- scale turbulence and convection, a thermal ground model, and a volatile phase change code. Solar system GCMs successes and failure also teach us that when modeling climate systems which are poorly observed, it is necessary to carefully explore the sensitivity of the modeled system to key parameters, in order to 'bracket' the reality We will present several examples of studies recently performed using a 'generic' Global Climate Model that we have developed in the past few years, in particular to better understand the processes which controls the stability of liquid water on a planetary surface and its habitability. Climate models confirm that planetary climates primarily depends on 1) The atmospheric composition and mass and the surface volatile inventory 2) The incident stellar flux 3) The tidal evolution of the planetary spin, which can notably lock a planet with a permanent night

  3. Evaluation of Northern Hemisphere natural climate variability in multiple temperature reconstructions and global climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, J. L.; Sloan, L. C.; Revenaugh, J.; Duffy, P. B.

    2003-06-01

    The detection of anthropogenic climate change in observations and the validation of climate models both rely on understanding natural climate variability. To evaluate internal climate variability, we apply spectral analysis to time series of surface air temperature (SAT) from nine coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations, three recent global paleotemperature reconstructions, and Northern Hemisphere (NH) instrumental records. Our comparison is focused on the NH due to the greater spatial and temporal coverage and validation of the available NH temperature reconstructions. The paleotemperature reconstructions capture the general magnitude of NH climate variability, but not the precise variance and specific spatial, temporal, or periodic signals demonstrated in the instrumental record. The models achieved varying degrees of success for each measure of variability analyzed, with none of the models consistently capturing the appropriate variability. In general, the models performed best in the analysis of combined mean annual land and marine variability.

  4. Global climate change and effects on Pacific Northwest salmonids: An exploratory case study

    SciTech Connect

    Shankle, S.A.

    1990-09-01

    Recently, a number of papers have addressed global warming and freshwater fisheries. The recent report to Congress by the US Environmental Protection Agency included an analysis of potential effects of global warming on fisheries of the Great Lakes, California, and the Southeast. In California, the report stated that salinity increases in the San Francisco Bay could enhance the abundance of marine fish species, while anadromous species could be adversely affected. This paper discusses global climate changes and the effects on Pacific Northwest Salmonids. The impacts of climate change or Spring Chinook production in the Yakima Sub-basin was simulated using a computer modeling system developed for the Northwest Power planning council. 35 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  5. Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Collins, W.J.; Fry, M. M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

    2013-01-01

    The emissions of reactive gases and aerosols can affect climate through the burdens of ozone, methane and aerosols, having both cooling and warming effects. These species are generally referred to near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) or short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), because of their short atmospheric residence time. The mitigation of these would be attractive for both air quality and climate on a 30-year timescale, provided it is not at the expense of CO2 mitigation. In this study we examine the climate effects of the emissions of NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon - BC) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides - NOx, volatile organic compounds VOC, and carbon monoxide - CO). For the aerosols the global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs) are simply time-dependent scaling of the equilibrium radiative forcing, with the GTPs decreasing more rapidly with time than the GWPs. While the aerosol climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region, emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other northern hemisphere regions. On regional basis, the northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions. We also found that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to black carbon emissions from South Asia.

  6. Chemical ecology of animal and human pathogen vectors in a changing global climate.

    PubMed

    Pickett, John A; Birkett, Michael A; Dewhirst, Sarah Y; Logan, James G; Omolo, Maurice O; Torto, Baldwyn; Pelletier, Julien; Syed, Zainulabeuddin; Leal, Walter S

    2010-01-01

    Infectious diseases affecting livestock and human health that involve vector-borne pathogens are a global problem, unrestricted by borders or boundaries, which may be exacerbated by changing global climate. Thus, the availability of effective tools for control of pathogen vectors is of the utmost importance. The aim of this article is to review, selectively, current knowledge of the chemical ecology of pathogen vectors that affect livestock and human health in the developed and developing world, based on key note lectures presented in a symposium on "The Chemical Ecology of Disease Vectors" at the 25th Annual ISCE meeting in Neuchatel, Switzerland. The focus is on the deployment of semiochemicals for monitoring and control strategies, and discusses briefly future directions that such research should proceed along, bearing in mind the environmental challenges associated with climate change that we will face during the 21st century.

  7. Exploring Connections between Global Climate Indices and African Vegetation Phenology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; deBeurs, Kirsten; Vrieling, Anton

    2009-01-01

    Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the continent in Africa. Agriculturally destructive droughts and floods are monitored from space using satellite remote sensing by organizations seeking to provide quantitative and predictive information about food security crises. Better knowledge on the relation between climate indices and food production may increase the use of these indices in famine early warning systems and climate outlook forums on the continent. Here we explore the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We explore spatial relationships between growing conditions as measured by the NDVI and the five climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa to determine the regions and periods when they have a significant impact. The focus is to provide a clear indication as to which climate index has the most impact on the three regions during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by variations in the climate indices. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. The research shows that climate indices can contribute to understanding growing season variability in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa.

  8. Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cess, R. D.; Hameed, S.; Hogan, J. S.

    1980-01-01

    Tropospheric ozone and methane might increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NOx and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test this possible climatic impact, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically-averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4 and NOx. The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NOx and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could enhance global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

  9. Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.; Hogan, J. S.

    1980-01-01

    Recent modeling of atmospheric chemical processes (Logan et al, 1978; Hameed et al, 1979) suggests that tropospheric ozone and methane might significantly increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO(x), and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test the possible climatic impact of changes in tropospheric chemical composition, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4, and NO(x). The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NO(x) and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could augment global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

  10. Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

    SciTech Connect

    Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2009-08-01

    Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

  11. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests

    PubMed Central

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P.

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions. PMID:23878329

  12. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

    PubMed

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

  13. Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States.

    PubMed

    Kellstedt, Paul M; Zahran, Sammy; Vedlitz, Arnold

    2008-02-01

    Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces-informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy-are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.

  14. Anticipated public health consequences of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Longstreth, J

    1991-12-01

    Human activities are placing enormous pressures on the biosphere. The introduction of new chemicals and the increasing ambient levels of existing chemicals have resulted in atmospheric degradation. This paper reviews some of the adverse effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. Because the atmospheric effects of ozone depletion are fairly well characterized, quantitative risk estimates have been developed. However, because the atmospheric effects of global warming are less understood, public health problems that could be intensified by climate change are assessed qualitatively. The interactive effects of these two phenomena are also discussed.

  15. Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

  16. Global markets and the differential effects of climate and weather on conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, K. C.; Hsiang, S. M.; Cane, M. A.

    2011-12-01

    Both climate and weather have been attributed historically as possible drivers for violence. Previous empirical studies have either focused on isolating local idiosyncratic weather variation or have conflated weather with spatially coherent climatic changes. This paper provides the first study of the differential impacts of climate and weather variation by employing methods developed in earlier work linking the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with the onset of civil conflicts. By separating the effects of climate from local weather, we are able to test possible mechanisms by which atmospheric changes can cause violence. It is generally difficult to separate the effect of year-to-year climate variations from other global events that might drive conflict. We avoid this problem by examining the set of tropical countries that are strongly teleconnected to ENSO. For this region, the ENSO cycle parallels the common year-to-year pattern of violence. Using ENSO, we isolate the influence of climatic changes from other global determinants of violence and compare it with the effect of local weather variations. We find that while climate affects the onset of civil conflicts in teleconnected countries, local weather has no significant effect. Productivity overall as well as across major sectors is more affected by local weather than by climatic variation. This is particularly evident in the agricultural sector where total value and cereal yield decline much greater from a 1°C increase in local temperature than a 1°C increase in ENSO. However, when examining the effect on food prices, we find that ENSO is associated with a large and statistically significant increase in cereal prices but no effect from hotter local temperatures. Altogether, this evidence points toward the ability of global and regional commodity markets to insure against the effects of local weather variation and their limitations in containing losses from aggregate shocks such as El Nino events. We posit

  17. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    PubMed Central

    Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

  18. Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight.

    PubMed

    Sparks, Adam H; Forbes, Gregory A; Hijmans, Robert J; Garrett, Karen A

    2014-12-01

    Weather affects the severity of many plant diseases, and climate change is likely to alter the patterns of crop disease severity. Evaluating possible future patterns can help focus crop breeding and disease management research. We examined the global effect of climate change on potato late blight, the disease that caused the Irish potato famine and still is a common potato disease around the world. We used a metamodel and considered three global climate models for the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario for three 20-year time-slices: 2000-2019, 2040-2059 and 2080-2099. In addition to global analyses, five regions were evaluated where potato is an important crop: the Andean Highlands, Indo-Gangetic Plain and Himalayan Highlands, Southeast Asian Highlands, Ethiopian Highlands, and Lake Kivu Highlands in Sub-Saharan Africa. We found that the average global risk of potato late blight increases initially, when compared with historic climate data, and then declines as planting dates shift to cooler seasons. Risk in the agro-ecosystems analyzed, varied from a large increase in risk in the Lake Kivu Highlands in Rwanda to decreases in the Southeast Asian Highlands of Indonesia.

  19. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-02-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  20. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

    PubMed

    Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

    2017-02-07

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  1. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  2. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): implementation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucio, Filipe

    2013-04-01

    The Extraordinary Session of the World Meteorological Congress, held from 29 to 31 October 2012, adopted the Implementation Plan of the Global Framework for Climate Services, for the subsequent consideration by the Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services, which will host its first session in July 2013. The Extraordinary Congress called for an immediate move to action, so that the work undertaken can result in activities on the ground which will benefit, in particular, vulnerable countries. The development of the GFCS through a broad consultation process accross the pillars of the GFCS (User Interface Platform; Observations and Monitoring; Climate Services Information System; Research, Modelling and Prediction; and Capacity Development) and the initial four priority areas (Agriculture and Food Security; Water; Health and Disaster Risk Reductio) identified a number of challenges, which in some cases constitute barries to implementation: - Accessibility: many countries do not have climate services at all, and all countries have scope to improve access to such services; - Capacity: many countries lack the capacity to anticipate and managed climate-related risks and opportunities; - Data: the current availability and quality of climate observations and impacts data are inadequate for large parts of the globe; - Partnerships: mechanisms to enhance interaction between climate users and providers are not always well developed, and user requirements are not always adequately understood and addressed; - Quality: operational climate services are lagging advances in climate and applications science, and the spatial and temporal resolution of information to support decision-making is often insufficient to match user requirements. To address these challenges, the Implementation Plan of the GFCS identified initial implementation projects and activities. The initial priority is to establish the leadership and management capacity to take the GFCS forward at all levels. Capacity

  3. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deryng, Delphine; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff; Warren, Rachel

    2014-03-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus - 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  4. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  5. Using a Global Climate Model in an On-line Climate Change Course

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Randle, D. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.

    2012-12-01

    Seminars on Science: Climate Change is an on-line, graduate-level teacher professional development course offered by the American Museum of Natural History. It is an intensive 6-week course covering a broad range of global climate topics, from the fundamentals of the climate system, to the causes of climate change, the role of paleoclimate investigations, and a discussion of potential consequences and risks. The instructional method blends essays, videos, textbooks, and linked websites, with required participation in electronic discussion forums that are moderated by an experienced educator and a course scientist. Most weeks include additional assignments. Three of these assignments employ computer models, including two weeks spent working with a full-fledged 3D global climate model (GCM). The global climate modeling environment is supplied through a partnership with Columbia University's Educational Global Climate Modeling Project (EdGCM). The objective is to have participants gain hands-on experience with one of the most important, yet misunderstood, aspects of climate change research. Participants in the course are supplied with a USB drive that includes installers for the software and sample data. The EdGCM software includes a version of NASA's global climate model fitted with a graphical user interface and pre-loaded with several climate change simulations. Step-by-step assignments and video tutorials help walk people through these challenging exercises and the course incorporates a special assignment discussion forum to help with technical problems and questions about the NASA GCM. There are several takeaways from our first year and a half of offering this course, which has become one of the most popular out of the twelve courses offered by the Museum. Participants report a high level of satisfaction in using EdGCM. Some report frustration at the initial steps, but overwhelmingly claim that the assignments are worth the effort. Many of the difficulties that

  6. The effect of eurasian snow cover on global climate.

    PubMed

    Barnett, T P; Dümenil, L; Schlese, U; Roeckner, E

    1988-01-29

    Numerical simulations with a global atmospheric circulation model suggest that largescale variations in the amount of snowfall over Eurasia in the springtime are linked to the subsequent strength of the Asian summer monsoon. Large-scale changes in Eurasian snow cover are coupled to larger scale changes in the global climate system. There is a large, strong teleconnection to the atmospheric field over North America. The model results also show snow cover effects to subsequently alter other climatic fields known to be intimately associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Thus the model results seem to challenge the current dogma that the ENSO phenomenon is solely the result of close coupling between the atmosphere and ocean by suggesting that processes over continental land masses may also have to be considered.

  7. The Effect of Eurasian Snow Cover on Global Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnett, T. P.; Dumenil, L.; Schlese, U.; Roeckner, E.

    1988-01-01

    Numerical simulations with a global atmospheric circulation model suggest that large-scale variations in the amount of snowfall over Eurasia in the springtime are linked to the subsequent strength of the Asian summer monsoon. Large-scale changes in Eurasian snow cover are coupled to larger scale changes in the global climate system. There is a large, strong teleconnection to the atmospheric field over North America. The model results also show cover effects to subsequently alter other climatic fields known to be intimately associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Thus the model results seem to challenge the current dogma that the ENSO phenomenon is solely the result of close coupling between the atmosphere and ocean by suggesting that processes over continental land masses may also have to be considered.

  8. A fast multipole transformation for global climate calculations

    SciTech Connect

    Holmes, J.A.; Wang, Z.; Drake, J.B.; Lyon, B.F.; Chen, W.T.

    1996-01-01

    A fast multipole transformation is adapted to the evaluation of summations that occur in global climate calculations when transforming between spatial and spherical harmonic representations. For each summation, the timing of the fast multipole transformation scales linearly with the number of latitude gridpoints, but the timing for direct evaluations scales quadratically. In spite of a larger computational overhead, this scaling advantage renders the fast multipole method faster than direct evaluation for transformations involving greater than approximately 300 to 500 gridpoints. Convergence of the fast multipole transformation is accurate to machine precision. As the resolution in global climate calculations continues to increase, an increasingly large fraction of the computational work involves the transformation between spatial and spherical harmonic representations. The fast multipole transformation offers a significant reduction in computational time for these high-resolution cases.

  9. Ways to Include Global Climate Change in Courses for Prospective Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Zee, Emily; Grobart, Emma; Roberts-Harris, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    What responsibility do science teacher educators have for engaging students in learning about global climate change in courses? How can the topic of global climate change be added to an already packed course curriculum? The authors have begun assembling instructional resources and learning ways others have incorporated global climate change in…

  10. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-01-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

  11. Biophysical Climate Forcings due to Recent Changes in Global Forest Cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cescatti, A.; Alkama, R.

    2015-12-01

    Deforestation impacts climate in two major ways: affecting the atmospheric CO2 concentration and modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water vapor. Given the important role of forests in the global carbon cycle, climate treaties account for land-based mitigation options like afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation or forest degradation. On the contrary, predicted climate impacts of biophysical processes, such as the exchange of energy and water vapor, are still uncertain in sign and magnitude, and therefore have not been considered in climate negotiations to date. Direct observations of the biophysical climate effects of forest losses and gains are therefore required to constrain model predictions, reduce the uncertainty of model ensembles, and provide robust recommendations to climate policy. In this work we report an observation-driven global analysis of the biophysical impacts of forest losses and gains on the local climate, based on a combination of Earth observations of recent changes in forest cover, surface radiometric temperatures and in-situ air temperatures. Our study documents that deforestation causes local changes in skin and air temperature that varies in sign and magnitude according to the climate zone. Results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a global biophysical warming corresponding to 31% of the biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land use change. These experimental evidences provide a global and robust quantification of the local climate sensitivities to deforestation and a novel assessment of the mitigation potentials of forests on mean/maximum air temperatures and on the diurnal temperature variations. Overall, the observation-driven, global quantification of the

  12. An exploration of Saturn's atmospheric dynamics with Global Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiga, Aymeric; Guerlet, Sandrine; Indurain, Mikel; Meurdesoif, Yann; Millour, Ehouarn; Sylvestre, Mélody; Dubos, Thomas; Fouchet, Thierry

    2015-04-01

    A decade of Cassini observations has yielded a new vision on the dynamical phenomena in Saturn's troposphere and stratosphere. Several puzzling signatures (equatorial oscillations with a period of about half a Saturn year, interhemispheric circulations affecting the hydrocarbons' distribution, including possible effects of rings shadowing, sudden warming associated with the powerful 2010 Great White Spot) cannot be explained by current photochemical and radiative models, which do not include dynamics. We therefore suspect that 1. the observed anomalies arise from large-scale dynamical circulations and 2. those large-scale dynamical motions are driven by atmospheric waves, eddies, and convection, in other words fundamental mechanisms giving birth to, e.g., the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation and Brewer-Dobson circulation in the Earth's middle atmosphere. We explore the plausibility of this scenario using our new Global Climate Modeling (GCM) for Saturn. To build this model, we firstly formulated dedicated physical parameterizations for Saturn's atmosphere, with a particular emphasis on radiative computations (using a correlated-k radiative transfer model, with radiative species and spectral discretization tailored for Saturn) aimed at both efficiency and accuracy, and validated them against existing Cassini observations. A second step consisted in coupling this radiative model to an hydrodynamical solver to predict the three-dimensional evolution of Saturn's tropospheric and stratospheric flow. We will provide an analysis of the first results of those dynamical simulations, with a focus on the development of baroclinic and barotropic instability, on eddy vs. mean flow interactions, and how this could relate to the enigmatic signatures observed by Cassini. Preliminary high-resolution simulations with a new icosahedral dynamical solver adapted to high-performance computing will also be analyzed. Perspectives are twofold: firstly, broadening our fundamental knowledge of

  13. An exploration of Saturn's stratospheric dynamics through Global Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiga, Aymeric; Guerlet, Sandrine; Indurain, Mikel; Millour, Ehouarn; Sylvestre, Mélody; Thierry, Fouchet; Meurdesoif, Yann; Thomas, Dubos

    2014-11-01

    A decade of Cassini observations has yielded a new vision on the dynamical phenomena in Saturn's troposphere and stratosphere. Several puzzling signatures (equatorial oscillations with a period of about half a Saturn year, interhemispheric circulations affecting the hydrocarbons’ distribution, including possible effects of rings shadowing, sudden warming associated with the powerful 2010 Great White Spot) cannot be explained by current photochemical and radiative models, which do not include dynamics. We therefore suspect that 1. the observed anomalies arise from large-scale dynamical circulations and 2. those large-scale dynamical motions are driven by atmospheric waves, eddies, and convection, in other words fundamental mechanisms giving birth to, e.g., the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation and Brewer-Dobson circulation in the Earth’s middle atmosphere. We explore the plausibility of this scenario using our new Global Climate Modeling (GCM) for Saturn. To build this model, we firstly formulated dedicated physical parameterizations for Saturn’s atmosphere, with a particular emphasis on radiative computations (using a correlated-k radiative transfer model, with radiative species and spectral discretization tailored for Saturn) aimed at both efficiency and accuracy, and validated them against existing Cassini observations. A second step consisted in coupling this radiative model to an hydrodynamical solver to predict the three-dimensional evolution of Saturn's tropospheric and stratospheric flow. We will provide an analysis of the first results of those dynamical simulations, with a focus on the development of baroclinic and barotropic instability, on eddy vs. mean flow interactions, and how this could relate to the enigmatic signatures observed by Cassini. Preliminary high-resolution simulations with a new icosahedral dynamical solver adapted to high-performance computing will also be analyzed. Perspectives are twofold: firstly, broadening our fundamental knowledge

  14. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  15. Science of Global Climate Modeling: Confirmation from Discoveries on Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, William K.

    2012-10-01

    As early as 1993, analysis of obliquity changes on Mars revealed irregular cycles of high excursion, over 45°1. Further obliquity analyses indicated that insolation and climatic conditions vary with time, with the four most recent episodes of obliquity >45° occurring about 5.5, 8, 9, and 15 My.2 Various researchers applied global climate models, using Martian parameters and obliquity changes. The models (independent of Martian geomorphological observations) indicate exceptional climate conditions during the high-obliquity episodes at >45°3,4, with localized massive ice deposition effects east of Hellas and on the west slopes of Tharsis.5 At last year’s DPS my co-authors and I detailed evidence of unusual active glaciation in Greg crater, near the center of the predicted area of ice accumulation during high obliquity.6 We found that the timescale of glacial surface layer activity matches the general 5-15 My timescale of the last episodes of high obliquity and ice deposition. Radar results confirm ice deposits in debris aprons concentrated in the same area.7 Less direct evidence has also been found for glacial ice deposits in the west Tharsis region.8 Here I emphasize that if the models can be adjusted to Mars and then successfully indicate unusual, specific features that we see there, it is an argument for the robustness of climate modeling in general. In recent years we have see various public figures casting doubt on the validity of terrestrial global modeling. The successful match of Martian climate modeling with direct Martian geological and chronometric observations provides an interesting and teachable refutation of the attacks on climate science. References: 1. Science 259:1294-1297; 2. LPSC XXXV, Abs. 1600; 3. Nature 412:411-413; 4. Science 295:110-113; 5. Science 311:368-371; 6. EPSC-DPS Abs. 1394; 7. Science 322:1235-1238; 8. Nature 434:346-351.

  16. Assessing Significance of Global Climate Change in Local Climate Time Series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Livezey, M. M.; Bair, A.; Livezey, R.; Hollingshead, A.; Horsfall, F. M. C.; Meyers, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    A common question by users to NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) local offices is how significant is global climate change in their local area. The scientific community provides copious information on global climate change, including assessments, for large regions. However, most decisions are made at the local level, where little or no information typically exists. To address this need, NOAA NWS released operationally the Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) in 2013 and specifically incorporated a capability into the tool to determine the local Rate of Change (ROC). Although ROC provides answers to some questions, we have seen an additional need for clarification on the significance of the ROC, such as whether or not it differentiates natural variability from a real signal of longer-term climate change. This question becomes very important for decision makers in consideration of their long term planning efforts to build local resilience to changes in climate. LCAT uses three trend adjustment methods in computing ROC: Hinge, Optimal Climate Normals (OCN), and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). The Hinge tracks changes in climate time series, and OCN and EWMS track changes in climate normals. ROC is the slope of the straight line fit of the trend. Standard statistical methodology in use provides guidance for confidence intervals of the slope parameter (von Storch and Zwiers, 1999), which works well for a linear regression fit and can be used for ROCs of OCN and EWMA. However the Hinge, which is a linear fit anchored on one end, needs some additional adjustments and most likely will have smaller confidence intervals than those estimated by the statistical method. An additional way to look at the problem is to assess how the climate change signal compares to climate variability in the local time series. Livezey et al. (2007) suggested the use of the signal to noise ratio to estimate the significance of the rate of climate change. The signal to noise ratio of

  17. Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Schoeman, David S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Burrows, Michael T.

    2016-01-01

    Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

  18. Climate change induced rainfall patterns affect wheat productivity and agroecosystem functioning dependent on soil types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabi Tataw, James; Baier, Fabian; Krottenthaler, Florian; Pachler, Bernadette; Schwaiger, Elisabeth; Whylidal, Stefan; Formayer, Herbert; Hösch, Johannes; Baumgarten, Andreas; Zaller, Johann G.

    2014-05-01

    Wheat is a crop of global importance supplying more than half of the world's population with carbohydrates. We examined, whether climate change induced rainfall patterns towards less frequent but heavier events alter wheat agroecosystem productivity and functioning under three different soil types. Therefore, in a full-factorial experiment Triticum aestivum L. was cultivated in 3 m2 lysimeter plots containing the soil types sandy calcaric phaeozem, gleyic phaeozem or calcic chernozem. Prognosticated rainfall patterns based on regionalised climate change model calculations were compared with current long-term rainfall patterns; each treatment combination was replicated three times. Future rainfall patterns significantly reduced wheat growth and yield, reduced the leaf area index, accelerated crop development, reduced arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi colonisation of roots, increased weed density and the stable carbon isotope signature (δ13C) of both old and young wheat leaves. Different soil types affected wheat growth and yield, ecosystem root production as well as weed abundance and biomass. The interaction between climate and soil type was significant only for the harvest index. Our results suggest that even slight changes in rainfall patterns can significantly affect the functioning of wheat agroecosystems. These rainfall effects seemed to be little influenced by soil types suggesting more general impacts of climate change across different soil types. Wheat production under future conditions will likely become more challenging as further concurrent climate change factors become prevalent.

  19. Climate affects predator control of an herbivore outbreak.

    PubMed

    Preisser, Evan L; Strong, Donald R

    2004-05-01

    Herbivore outbreaks and the accompanying devastation of plant biomass can have enormous ecological effects. Climate directly affects such outbreaks through plant stress or alterations in herbivore life-history traits. Large-scale variation in climate can indirectly affect outbreaks through trophic interactions, but the magnitude of such effects is unknown. On the California coast, rainfall in years during and immediately previous to mass lupine mortality was two-thirds that of years without such mortality. However, neither mature lupines nor their root-feeding herbivores are directly affected by annual variation in rainfall. By increasing soil moisture to levels characteristic of summers following El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, we increased persistence of a predator (the entomopathogenic nematode Heterorhabditis marelatus). This led to suppression of an outbreak of the herbivorous moth Hepialus californicus, indirectly protecting bush lupine (Lupinus arboreus). Our results are consistent with the marine-oriented Menge-Sutherland hypothesis (Menge and Sutherland 1987) that abiotic stress has greater effects on higher than on lower trophic levels. The mechanisms producing these results differ from those proposed by Menge-Sutherland, however, highlighting differences between trophic processes in underground and terrestrial/marine food webs. Our evidence suggests that herbivore outbreaks and mass lupine mortality are indirectly affected by ENSO's facilitation of top-down control in this food web.

  20. The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

    PubMed

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-17

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  1. Hydrological sensitivity to greenhouse gases and aerosols in a global climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    KvalevâG, Maria Malene; Samset, BjøRn H.; Myhre, Gunnar

    2013-04-01

    Changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols alter the atmospheric energy budget on different time scales and at different levels in the atmosphere. We study the relationship between global mean precipitation changes, radiative forcing, and surface temperature change since preindustrial times caused by several climate change components (CO2, CH4, sulphate and black carbon (BC) aerosols, and solar forcing) using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM1.03). We find a fast response in precipitation due to atmospheric instability that correlates with radiative forcing associated with atmospheric absorption and a slower response caused by changes in surface temperature which correlates with radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. In general, global climate models show large differences in climate response to global warming, but here we find a strong relationship between global mean radiative forcing and global mean precipitation changes that is very consistent with other models, indicating that precipitation changes from a particular forcing mechanism are more robust than previously expected. In addition, we look at the precipitation response and relate it to changes in lifetime of atmospheric water vapor (τ). BC aerosols have a significantly larger impact on changes in τ related to surface temperature compared to greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols, and solar forcing and are the dominating forcing mechanism affecting fast precipitation in this quantity.

  2. Urban climate versus global climate change-what makes the difference for dengue?

    PubMed

    Misslin, Renaud; Telle, Olivier; Daudé, Eric; Vaguet, Alain; Paul, Richard E

    2016-10-01

    The expansion in the geographical distribution of vector-borne diseases is a much emphasized consequence of climate change, as are the consequences of urbanization for diseases that are already endemic, which may be even more important for public health. In this paper, we focus on dengue, the most widespread urban vector-borne disease. Largely urban with a tropical/subtropical distribution and vectored by a domesticated mosquito, Aedes aegypti, dengue poses a serious public health threat. Temperature plays a determinant role in dengue epidemic potential, affecting crucial parts of the mosquito and viral life cycles. The urban predilection of the mosquito species will further exacerbate the impact of global temperature change because of the urban heat island effect. Even within a city, temperatures can vary by 10 °C according to urban land use, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) can be even greater. DTR has been shown to contribute significantly to dengue epidemic potential. Unraveling the importance of within-city temperature is as important for dengue as for the negative health consequences of high temperatures that have thus far been emphasized, for example, pollution and heat stroke. Urban and landscape planning designed to mitigate the non-infectious negative effects of temperature should additionally focus on dengue, which is currently spreading worldwide with no signs of respite.

  3. Sensitivity of flood events to global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Dimou, George

    1997-04-01

    The sensitivity of Acheloos river flood events at the outfall of the mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central Greece was analysed under various scenarios of global climate change. The climate change pattern was simulated through a set of hypothetical and monthly GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) scenarios of temperature increase coupled with precipitation changes. The daily outflow of the catchment, which is dominated by spring snowmelt runoff, was simulated by the coupling of snowmelt and soil moisture accounting models of the US National Weather Service River Forecast System. Two threshold levels were used to define a flood day—the double and triple long-term mean daily streamflow—and the flood parameters (occurrences, duration, magnitude, etc.) for these cases were determined. Despite the complicated response of flood events to temperature increase and threshold, both hypothetical and monthly GISS representations of climate change resulted in more and longer flood events for climates with increased precipitation. All climates yielded larger flood volumes and greater mean values of flood peaks with respect to precipitation increase. The lower threshold resulted in more and longer flood occurrences, as well as smaller flood volumes and peaks than those of the upper one. The combination of higher and frequent flood events could lead to greater risks of inudation and possible damage to structures. Furthermore, the winter swelling of the streamflow could increase erosion of the river bed and banks and hence modify the river profile.

  4. The Role of Global Observations for Climate and Other Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Ackerman, TP

    2005-05-01

    Most of the current earth-observing systems have been designed primarily for the needs of weather forecasting. Weather forecasting is an initial condition problem; the success of the forecast is heavily dependent on the quality of the specified initial state of the atmosphere. Thus, weather forecasting observing systems tend to focus on determining the 3D values of the state variables of the system – namely temperature, humidity, and wind vector. While weather forecasting requires accurate observations, spatial patterns and relative accuracy across those patterns are the primary concern. Climate, on the other hand, is a boundary condition problem, i.e., climate simulation depends on knowing the energy fluxes into and out of the system, and quantities such as CO2 that affect the flow of those energy fluxes in the system. Consequently, climate-observing systems must extend beyond measurements of state variables to flux measurements of radiation energy and water. We focus on these two cycles because the dominant forms of energy transfer in the climate system (solar energy, thermal infrared energy, evaporation, and condensation) involve these two quantities. Further, because climate is a search for small system trends and imbalances in the midst of large weather variability, climate observations require a much higher degree of precision than do weather observations.

  5. The Role of Global Observations for Climate and Other Applications

    SciTech Connect

    T.P. Ackerman

    2005-05-01

    Most of the current earth-observing systems have been designed primarily for the needs of weather forecasting. Weather forecasting is an initial condition problem; the success of the forecast is heavily dependent on the quality of the specified initial state of the atmosphere. Thus, weather forecasting observing systems tend to focus on determining the 3D values of the state variables of the system namely temperature, humidity, and wind vector. While weather forecasting requires accurate observations, spatial patterns and relative accuracy across those patterns are the primary concern. Climate, on the other hand, is a boundary condition problem, i.e., climate simulation depends on knowing the energy fluxes into and out of the system, and quantities such as CO2 that affect the flow of those energy fluxes in the system. Consequently, climate-observing systems must extend beyond measurements of state variables to flux measurements of radiation energy and water. We focus on these two cycles because the dominant forms of energy transfer in the climate system (solar energy, thermal infrared energy, evaporation, and condensation) involve these two quantities. Further, because climate is a search for small system trends and imbalances in the midst of large weather variability, climate observations require a much higher degree of precision than do weather observations.

  6. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model

  7. Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends

    SciTech Connect

    Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Wei, Yaxing; Thornton, Peter E.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Fu, Wenting; Fisher, Joshua B.; Dickinson, Robert E.; Shem, Willis; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Kaicun; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Tian, Hanqin; Mu, Mingquan; Arain, Altaf; Ciais, Philippe; Cook, Robert; Dai, Yongjiu; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Huang, Suo; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; King, Anthony W.; Lei, Huimin; Lu, Chaoqun; Michalak, Anna M.; Parazoo, Nicholas; Peng, Changhui; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Schaefer, Kevin; Jafarov, Elchin; Wang, Weile; Zeng, Ning; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhao, Fang; Zhu, Qiuan; Zhu, Zaichun

    2015-09-08

    Here, we examined natural and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) changes from 1982-2010 using multiple estimates from remote sensing-based datasets and process-oriented land surface models. A significant increased trend of ET in each hemisphere was consistently revealed by observationally-constrained data and multi-model ensembles that considered historic natural and anthropogenic drivers. The climate impacts were simulated to determine the spatiotemporal variations in ET. Globally, rising CO2 ranked second in these models after the predominant climatic influences, and yielded a decreasing trend in canopy transpiration and ET, especially for tropical forests and high-latitude shrub land. Increased nitrogen deposition slightly amplified global ET via enhanced plant growth. Land-use-induced ET responses, albeit with substantial uncertainties across the factorial analysis, were minor globally, but pronounced locally, particularly over regions with intensive land-cover changes. Our study highlights the importance of employing multi-stream ET and ET-component estimates to quantify the strengthening anthropogenic fingerprint in the global hydrologic cycle.

  8. Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mao, J.; Fu, W.; Shi, X.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Fisher, J. B.; Dickinson, R. E.; Wei, Y.; Shem, W.; Piao, S.; Wang, K.; Schwalm, C. R.; Tian, H.; Mu, M.; Arain, M. A.; Ciais, P.; Cook, R. B.; Dai, Y. J.; Hayes, D. J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Huang, M.; Huang, S.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Ito, A.; Jain, A. K.; King, A. W.; Lei, H.; Lu, C.; Michalak, A. M.; Parazoo, N.; Peng, C.; Peng, S.; Poulter, B.; Schaefer, K. M.; Jafarov, E. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Wang, W.; Zeng, N.; Zeng, Z.; Zhao, F.; Zhu, Q.; Zhu, Z.

    2015-12-01

    We examined natural and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) changes from 1982-2010 using multiple estimates from remote sensing-based datasets and process-oriented land surface models. A significant increased trend of ET in each hemisphere was consistently revealed by observationally-constrained data and multi-model ensembles that considered historic natural and anthropogenic drivers. The climate impacts were simulated to determine the spatiotemporal variations in ET. Globally, rising CO2 ranked second in these models after the predominant climatic influences, and yielded decreased trends in canopy transpiration and ET, especially for tropical forests and high-latitude shrub land. Increased nitrogen deposition slightly amplified global ET via enhanced plant growth. Land-use-induced ET responses, albeit with substantial uncertainties across the factorial analysis, were minor globally, but pronounced locally, particularly over regions with intensive land-cover changes. Our study highlights the importance of employing multi-stream ET and ET-component estimates to quantify the strengthening anthropogenic fingerprint in the global hydrologic cycle.

  9. Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming.

    PubMed

    Koven, Charles D; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

    2011-09-06

    Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH(4) emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO(2) by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO(2) fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH(4)/y to 41-70 Tg CH(4)/y, with increases due to CO(2) fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH(4) flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.

  10. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, National Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wehner, M. F.

    2009-12-01

    The second Key Finding from the recent USGRP report “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States” is: 2. Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow. Climate-related changes are already observed in the United States and its coastal waters. These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons, lengthening ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt, and alterations in river flows. These changes are projected to grow. The Key Findings are based on a combination of observational, theoretical and model based analyses and are a consensus opinion of the report’s Lead Author team. The model based projections of future climate used in the report will be detailed. A discussion of the source and magnitudes of uncertainties in these projections will also be presented.

  11. Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Aiguo; Fyfe, John C.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Dai, Xingang

    2015-06-01

    Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface temperature (T) has shown no discernible warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to model simulations, which on average project strong warming. The recent slowdown in observed surface warming has been attributed to decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific, intensifying trade winds, changes in El Niño activity, increasing volcanic activity and decreasing solar irradiance. Earlier periods of arrested warming have been observed but received much less attention than the recent period, and their causes are poorly understood. Here we analyse observed and model-simulated global T fields to quantify the contributions of internal climate variability (ICV) to decadal changes in global-mean T since 1920. We show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been associated with large T anomalies over both ocean and land. Combined with another leading mode of ICV, the IPO explains most of the difference between observed and model-simulated rates of decadal change in global-mean T since 1920, and particularly over the so-called `hiatus' period since about 2000. We conclude that ICV, mainly through the IPO, was largely responsible for the recent slowdown, as well as for earlier slowdowns and accelerations in global-mean T since 1920, with preferred spatial patterns different from those associated with GHG-induced warming or aerosol-induced cooling. Recent history suggests that the IPO could reverse course and lead to accelerated global warming in the coming decades.

  12. Decadal Modulation of Global Surface Temperature By Internal Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, A.; Fyfe, J. C.; Xie, S. P.; Dai, X.

    2014-12-01

    Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface temperature (T) has shown no discernable warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to model simulations which on average project strong warming. The recent slowdown in observed surface warming has been attributed to decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific, intensifying trade winds, changes in El Niño activity, increasing volcanic activity and decreasing solar irradiance. Earlier periods of arrested warming have been observed but received much less attention than the recent period, and their causes are poorly understood. Here we analyze observed and model-simulated global T fields to quantify the contributions of internal climate variability (ICV) to decadal changes in global-mean T since 1920. We show that the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been associated with large T anomalies over both ocean and land since 1920. Combined with another leading mode of ICV, the IPO explains most of the difference between observed and model-simulated rates of decadal change in global-mean T since 1920, and particularly over the so-called "hiatus" period since about 2000. We conclude that ICV, mainly through the IPO, was largely responsible for the recent slowdown, as well as for earlier slowdowns and accelerations in global-mean T since 1920, with preferred spatial patterns different from GHG-induced warming. Recent history suggests that the IPO could reverse course and lead to accelerated global warming in the coming decades.

  13. Variations in Global Precipitation: Climate-scale to Floods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, Robert

    2006-01-01

    Variations in global precipitation from climate-scale to small scale are examined using satellite-based analyses of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 27- year (1979-2005) monthly dataset from the GPCP. In addition to global patterns associated with phenomena such as ENSO, the data set is explored for evidence of longterm change. Although the global change of precipitation in the data set is near zero, the data set does indicate a small upward trend in the Tropics (25S-25N), especially over ocean. Techniques are derived to isolate and eliminate variations due to ENS0 and major volcanic eruptions and the significance of the trend is examined. The status of TRMM estimates is examined in terms of evaluating and improving the long-term global data set. To look at rainfall variations on a much smaller scale TRMM data is used in combination with observations from other satellites to produce a 3-hr resolution, eight-year data set for examination of weather events and for practical applications such as detecting floods. Characteristics of the data set are presented and examples of recent flood events are examined.

  14. Ocean Global Warming Impacts on the South America Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos-Da-Silva, Renato

    2016-03-01

    The global Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model (OLAM) model was used to estimate the impacts of the global oceanic warming on the climate projections for the 21st Century focusing on the South America region. This new model is able to represent simultaneously the global and regional scales using a refining grid approach for the region of interest. First, the model was run for a 31-year control period consisting on the years 1960-1990 using the monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) data as a driver for the ocean fluxes. Then, the model was run for the period 2010-2100 using the monthly projected SST from the Hadley Center model (HadCM3) as a driver for the oceanic changes. The model was set up with an icosahedral triangular global grid having about 250 km of grid spacing and with a refining grid resolution with the cells reaching about 32 km over the South America region. The results show an overall temperature increase mainly over the center of the Amazon basin caused by the increase of the greenhouse effect of the water vapor; a decrease on precipitation mainly over the northeast Brazil and an increase in the south and over the western Amazon region; and a major increase on the near surface wind speed. These results are similar to the global coupled models; however, OLAM has a novel type of grid that can provide the interaction between the global and regional scales simultaneously.

  15. Beneath the surface of global change: Impacts of climate change on groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, Timothy R.; Taniguchi, Makoto; Kooi, Henk; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Hiscock, Kevin M.; Treidel, Holger; Aureli, Alice

    2011-08-01

    SummaryGlobal change encompasses changes in the characteristics of inter-related climate variables in space and time, and derived changes in terrestrial processes, including human activities that affect the environment. As such, projected global change includes groundwater systems. Here, groundwater is defined as all subsurface water including soil water, deeper vadose zone water, and unconfined and confined aquifer waters. Potential effects of climate change combined with land and water management on surface waters have been studied in some detail. Equivalent studies of groundwater systems have lagged behind these advances, but research and broader interest in projected climate effects on groundwater have been accelerating in recent years. In this paper, we provide an overview and synthesis of the key aspects of subsurface hydrology, including water quantity and quality, related to global change. Adaptation to global change must include prudent management of groundwater as a renewable, but slow-feedback resource in most cases. Groundwater storage is already over-tapped in many regions, yet available subsurface storage may be a key to meeting the combined demands of agriculture, industry, municipal and domestic water supply, and ecosystems during times of shortage. The future intensity and frequency of dry periods combined with warming trends need to be addressed in the context of groundwater resources, even though projections in space and time are fraught with uncertainty. Finally, potential impacts of groundwater on the global climate system are largely unknown. Research to improve our understanding of the joint behaviors of climate and groundwater is needed, and spin-off benefits on each discipline are likely.

  16. Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.

    2008-12-01

    Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal

  17. Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Osland, Michael J.; Feher, Laura; Griffith, Kereen; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Stagg, Camille L.; Krauss, Ken W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Grace, James B.; Rogers, Kerrylee

    2017-01-01

    Mangrove forests are highly productive tidal saline wetland ecosystems found along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. Ecologists have long assumed that climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and rainfall regimes) govern the global distribution, structure, and function of mangrove forests. However, data constraints have hindered the quantification of direct climate-mangrove linkages in many parts of the world. Recently, the quality and availability of global-scale climate and mangrove data have been improving. Here, we used these data to better understand the influence of air temperature and rainfall regimes upon the distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Although our analyses identify global-scale relationships and thresholds, we show that the influence of climatic drivers is best characterized via regional range limit-specific analyses. We quantified climatic controls across targeted gradients in temperature and/or rainfall within 14 mangrove distributional range limits. Climatic thresholds for mangrove presence, abundance, and species richness differed among the 14 studied range limits. We identified minimum temperature-based thresholds for range limits in eastern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand, eastern Asia, eastern South America, and southeast Africa. We identified rainfall-based thresholds for range limits in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, western South America, western Australia, Middle East, northwest Africa, east central Africa, and west central Africa. Our results show that in certain range limits (e.g., eastern North America, western Gulf of Mexico, eastern Asia), winter air temperature extremes play an especially important role. We conclude that rainfall and temperature regimes are both important in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, and western Australia. With climate change, alterations in temperature and rainfall regimes will affect the global distribution, abundance, and

  18. Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William

    1999-01-01

    The objective of the research is to derive an assessment of the potential climate change impacts on a global city - in this case the 31 county region that comprises the New York City metropolitan area. This study comprises one of the regional components that contribute to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and is an application of state-of-the-art climate change science to a set of linked sectoral assessment analyses for the Metro East Coast (MEC) region. We illustrate how three interacting elements of global cities react and respond to climate variability and change with a broad conceptual model. These elements include: people (e.g., socio- demographic conditions), place (e.g., physical systems), and pulse (e.g., decision-making and economic activities). The model assumes that a comprehensive assessment of potential climate change can be derived from examining the impacts within each of these elements and at their intersections. Thus, the assessment attempts to determine the within-element and the inter-element effects. Five interacting sector studies representing the three intersecting elements are evaluated. They include the Coastal Zone, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, and Institutional Decision-making. Each study assesses potential climate change impacts on the sector and on the intersecting elements, through the analysis of the following parts: 1. Current conditions of sector in the region; 2. Lessons and evidence derived from past climate variability; 3. Scenario predictions affecting sector; potential impacts of scenario predictions; 4. Knowledge/information gaps and critical issues including identification of additional research questions, effectiveness of modeling efforts, equity of impacts, potential non-local interactions, and policy recommendations; and 5. Identification of coping strategies - i.e., resilience building, mitigation strategies, new technologies, education that

  19. Sensitivity of leaf size and shape to climate: Global patterns and paleoclimatic applications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peppe, D.J.; Royer, D.L.; Cariglino, B.; Oliver, S.Y.; Newman, S.; Leight, E.; Enikolopov, G.; Fernandez-Burgos, M.; Herrera, F.; Adams, J.M.; Correa, E.; Currano, E.D.; Erickson, J.M.; Hinojosa, L.F.; Hoganson, J.W.; Iglesias, A.; Jaramillo, C.A.; Johnson, K.R.; Jordan, G.J.; Kraft, N.J.B.; Lovelock, E.C.; Lusk, C.H.; Niinemets, U.; Penuelas, J.; Rapson, G.; Wing, S.L.; Wright, I.J.

    2011-01-01

    Paleobotanists have long used models based on leaf size and shape to reconstruct paleoclimate. However, most models incorporate a single variable or use traits that are not physiologically or functionally linked to climate, limiting their predictive power. Further, they often underestimate paleotemperature relative to other proxies. Here we quantify leaf-climate correlations from 92 globally distributed, climatically diverse sites, and explore potential confounding factors. Multiple linear regression models for mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) are developed and applied to nine well-studied fossil floras. We find that leaves in cold climates typically have larger, more numerous teeth, and are more highly dissected. Leaf habit (deciduous vs evergreen), local water availability, and phylogenetic history all affect these relationships. Leaves in wet climates are larger and have fewer, smaller teeth. Our multivariate MAT and MAP models offer moderate improvements in precision over univariate approaches (??4.0 vs 4.8??C for MAT) and strong improvements in accuracy. For example, our provisional MAT estimates for most North American fossil floras are considerably warmer and in better agreement with independent paleoclimate evidence. Our study demonstrates that the inclusion of additional leaf traits that are functionally linked to climate improves paleoclimate reconstructions. This work also illustrates the need for better understanding of the impact of phylogeny and leaf habit on leaf-climate relationships. ?? 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist ?? 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

  20. Sensitivity of leaf size and shape to climate: global patterns and paleoclimatic applications.

    PubMed

    Peppe, Daniel J; Royer, Dana L; Cariglino, Bárbara; Oliver, Sofia Y; Newman, Sharon; Leight, Elias; Enikolopov, Grisha; Fernandez-Burgos, Margo; Herrera, Fabiany; Adams, Jonathan M; Correa, Edwin; Currano, Ellen D; Erickson, J Mark; Hinojosa, Luis Felipe; Hoganson, John W; Iglesias, Ari; Jaramillo, Carlos A; Johnson, Kirk R; Jordan, Gregory J; Kraft, Nathan J B; Lovelock, Elizabeth C; Lusk, Christopher H; Niinemets, Ulo; Peñuelas, Josep; Rapson, Gillian; Wing, Scott L; Wright, Ian J

    2011-05-01

    • Paleobotanists have long used models based on leaf size and shape to reconstruct paleoclimate. However, most models incorporate a single variable or use traits that are not physiologically or functionally linked to climate, limiting their predictive power. Further, they often underestimate paleotemperature relative to other proxies. • Here we quantify leaf-climate correlations from 92 globally distributed, climatically diverse sites, and explore potential confounding factors. Multiple linear regression models for mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) are developed and applied to nine well-studied fossil floras. • We find that leaves in cold climates typically have larger, more numerous teeth, and are more highly dissected. Leaf habit (deciduous vs evergreen), local water availability, and phylogenetic history all affect these relationships. Leaves in wet climates are larger and have fewer, smaller teeth. Our multivariate MAT and MAP models offer moderate improvements in precision over univariate approaches (± 4.0 vs 4.8°C for MAT) and strong improvements in accuracy. For example, our provisional MAT estimates for most North American fossil floras are considerably warmer and in better agreement with independent paleoclimate evidence. • Our study demonstrates that the inclusion of additional leaf traits that are functionally linked to climate improves paleoclimate reconstructions. This work also illustrates the need for better understanding of the impact of phylogeny and leaf habit on leaf-climate relationships.

  1. Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shongwe, M. E.

    2010-01-01

    Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems. Statistical methods are commonly used to investigate characteristics of climate extremes. The fitted statistical properties are often interpolated or extrapolated to give an indication of the likelihood of a certain event within a given period or interval. Under changing climatic conditions, the statistical properties of climate extremes are also changing. It is an important scientific goal to predict how the properties of extreme events change. To achieve this goal, observational and model studies aimed at revealing important features are a necessary prerequisite. Notable progress has been made in understanding mechanisms that influence climate variability and extremes in many parts of the globe including Europe. However, some of the recently observed unprecedented extremes cannot be fully explained from the already identified forcing factors. A better understanding of why these extreme events occur and their sensitivity to certain reinforcing and/or competing factors is useful. Understanding their basic form as well as their temporal variability is also vital and can contribute to global scientific efforts directed at advancing climate prediction capabilities, particularly making skilful forecasts and realistic projections of extremes. In this thesis temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe and Africa, respectively, are investigated. Emphasis is placed on the mechanisms underlying the occurrence of the extremes, their predictability and their likely response to global warming. The focus is on some selected seasons when extremes typically occur. An atmospheric energy budget analysis for the record-breaking European Autumn 2006 event has been carried out with the goal to identify the sources of energy for the extreme event. Net radiational heating is compared to surface turbulent fluxes of

  2. The Global Climate Dashboard: a Software Interface to Stream Comprehensive Climate Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gardiner, N.; Phillips, M.; NOAA Climate Portal Dashboard

    2011-12-01

    The Global Climate Dashboard is an integral component of NOAA's web portal to climate data, services, and value-added content for decision-makers, teachers, and the science-attentive public (www.clmate.gov). The dashboard provides a rapid view of observational data that demonstrate climate change and variability, as well as outputs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project version 3, which was built to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment. The data shown in the dashboard therefore span a range of climate science disciplines with applications that serve audiences with diverse needs. The dashboard is designed with reusable software components that allow it to be implemented incrementally on a wide range of platforms including desktops, tablet devices, and mobile phones. The underlying software components support live streaming of data and provide a way of encapsulating graph sytles and other presentation details into a device-independent standard format that results in a common visual look and feel across all platforms. Here we describe the pedagogical objectives, technical implementation, and the deployment of the dashboard through climate.gov and partner web sites and describe plans to develop a mobile application using the same framework.

  3. The real ecological fallacy: epidemiology and global climate change.

    PubMed

    Krieger, Nancy

    2015-08-01

    Prompted by my participation in the People's Climate March held in New York City on 21 September 2014, as part of the 'Harvard Divest' contingent, in this brief essay I reflect on the late 20th century development of--and debates over--the necessity of ecological thinking in epidemiology, and also the still limited engagement of our field with work on the health impact of global climate change. Revisiting critiques about the damaging influence of methodological individualism on our field, I extend critique of the still influential notion of 'ecological fallacy,' including its wilful disregard for ecology itself as being pertinent to people's ways of living--and dying. Indeed, the real 'ecological fallacy' is to think epidemiologists or others could ever understand the people's health except in societal and ecological, and hence historical, context. I conclude by urging all of us, as members of the broader scientific community, whether or not we directly study the health impacts of the planetary emergency of global climate change, to step up by joining the call for universities to divest from fossil fuels.

  4. [Forest litter decomposition and its responses to global climate change].

    PubMed

    Yang, Wan-Qin; Deng, Ren-Ju; Zhang, Jian

    2007-12-01

    Litter decomposition is one of the important processes in forest ecosystem, which is controlled by both biotic and abiotic factors such as climate, litter quality, and soil organisms. Up to now, numerous studies have been made on the dynamics of aboveground litter in different forest ecosystems, nutrient release during its decomposition, and effects of biotic and abiotic factors on the decomposition, but less information has been reported on the decomposition of belowground forest litter. Recently, the responses of forest litter decomposition to global climate change characterized by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature have got worldwide concern, but there remains uncertainty in research results. In the further study, more attention should be paid on the contribution of forest litter decomposition to soil organic carbon sequestration, the physical, chemical and biological processes of below- and above-ground litter decomposition, the responses of forest litter decomposition to the ecological factors (e.g. seasonal freeze-thaw cycle and drying-rewetting cycle) and their interactions, and the mechanisms of litter (especially belowground litter) decomposition responses to global climate change.

  5. Global Wildfire Forecasts Using Large Scale Climate Indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

    2016-04-01

    Using weather readings, fire early warning can provided forecast 4-6 hour in advance to minimize fire loss. The benefit would be dramatically enhanced if relatively accurate long-term projection can be also provided. Here we present a novel method for predicting global fire season severity (FSS) at least three months in advance using multiple large-scale climate indices (CIs). The predictive ability is proven effective for various geographic locations and resolution. Globally, as well as in most continents, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driving force controlling interannual FSS variability, whereas other CIs also play indispensable roles. We found that a moderate El Niño event is responsible for 465 (272-658 as interquartile range) Tg carbon release and an annual increase of 29,500 (24,500-34,800) deaths from inhalation exposure to air pollutants. Southeast Asia accounts for half of the deaths. Both intercorrelation and interaction of WPs and CIs are revealed, suggesting possible climate-induced modification of fire responses to weather conditions. Our models can benefit fire management in response to climate change.

  6. Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liao, Hong; Chen, Wei-Ting; Seinfeld, John H.

    2006-01-01

    A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2

  7. Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawkins, Ed; Sutton, Rowan

    2016-04-01

    Current state-of-the-art global climate models produce different values for Earth's mean temperature. When comparing simulations with each other and with observations it is standard practice to compare temperature anomalies with respect to a reference period. It is not always appreciated that the choice of reference period can affect conclusions, both about the skill of simulations of past climate, and about the magnitude of expected future changes in climate. We discuss some of the key issues that arise when using anomalies relative to a reference period to generate climate projections and highlight that there is no perfect choice of reference period. When evaluating models against observations, a long reference period should generally be used, but how long depends on the quality of the observations available. The IPCC AR5 choice to use a 1986-2005 reference period for future global temperature projections was reasonable, but a case-by-case approach is needed for different purposes and when assessing projections of different climate variables. Finally, we recommend that any studies that involve the use of a reference period should explicitly examine the robustness of the conclusions to alternative choices.

  8. Projected Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Change on the Global Diversity of Birds

    PubMed Central

    Jetz, Walter; Wilcove, David S; Dobson, Andrew P

    2007-01-01

    Over the past few decades, land-use and climate change have led to substantial range contractions and species extinctions. Even more dramatic changes to global land cover are projected for this century. We used the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios to evaluate the exposure of all 8,750 land bird species to projected land-cover changes due to climate and land-use change. For this first baseline assessment, we assumed stationary geographic ranges that may overestimate actual losses in geographic range. Even under environmentally benign scenarios, at least 400 species are projected to suffer >50% range reductions by the year 2050 (over 900 by the year 2100). Although expected climate change effects at high latitudes are significant, species most at risk are predominantly narrow-ranged and endemic to the tropics, where projected range contractions are driven by anthropogenic land conversions. Most of these species are currently not recognized as imperiled. The causes, magnitude and geographic patterns of potential range loss vary across socioeconomic scenarios, but all scenarios (even the most environmentally benign ones) result in large declines of many species. Whereas climate change will severely affect biodiversity, in the near future, land-use change in tropical countries may lead to yet greater species loss. A vastly expanded reserve network in the tropics, coupled with more ambitious goals to reduce climate change, will be needed to minimize global extinctions. PMID:17550306

  9. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seddon, Alistair W. R.; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R.; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J.

    2016-03-01

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems—be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature—to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

  10. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability.

    PubMed

    Seddon, Alistair W R; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J

    2016-03-10

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems--be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature--to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

  11. Testing empirical relationships between global sea-level and global temperature in long climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Storch, H.; Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F.

    2009-04-01

    Estimations of future global sea-level rise brought about by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin are based on simulations with coarse-resolution global climate models, which imposes some limitations on the skill of future projections because some of the processes that modulate the heat and fresh water flux into may not be adequately represented. To fill this gap, and until more complex climate models are available, some ad-hoc methods have been proposed that link the rise in global average temperature with the global mean sea-level rise. The statistical methods can be calibrated with observations and applied to the future global temperature rise simulated by climate models. This methods can be tested in the virtual reality simulated by global atmosphere.ocean models. Thereby, deficiencies can be identified and improvement suggested. The output of 1000-year long climate model simulation with the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHO-G over the past millennium has been used to determine the skill of different predictors to describe the variations of the rate of sea-level change in the simulation. These predictor variables comprise the global mean near-surface temperature, its rate of change with time and the heat-flux into the ocean. It is found that, in the framework of this climate simulation, global mean temperature is not a good predictor for the rate-of-change of sea-level. The correlation between both variables is not stable along the simulations and even its sign changes. A better predictor is the rate-of-change of temperature. Its correlation with the rate-of-change of sea-level is much more stable, it is always positive along the simulation, and there exists a lead-lag relationship between both that can be understood in simple physical terms. The best predictor among those tested is the heat-flux into the ocean. Its correlation is higher and there exists no time lag to the rate-of-change of sea-level, as expected

  12. The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

    PubMed

    Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

    2012-12-01

    The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

  13. Global climate forcing of aerosols embodied in international trade

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Jintai; Tong, Dan; Davis, Steven; Ni, Ruijing; Tan, Xiaoxiao; Pan, Da; Zhao, Hongyan; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David; Feng, Tong; Zhang, Qiang; Yan, Yingying; Hu, Yongyun; Li, Jing; Liu, Zhu; Jiang, Xujia; Geng, Guannan; He, Kebin; Huang, Yi; Guan, Dabo

    2016-10-01

    International trade separates regions consuming goods and services from regions where goods and related aerosol pollution are produced. Yet the role of trade in aerosol climate forcing attributed to different regions has never been quantified. Here, we contrast the direct radiative forcing of aerosols related to regions' consumption of goods and services against the forcing due to emissions produced in each region. Aerosols assessed include black carbon, primary organic aerosol, and secondary inorganic aerosols, including sulfate, nitrate and ammonium. We find that global aerosol radiative forcing due to emissions produced in East Asia is much stronger than the forcing related to goods and services ultimately consumed in that region because of its large net export of emissions-intensive goods. The opposite is true for net importers such as Western Europe and North America: global radiative forcing related to consumption is much greater than the forcing due to emissions produced in these regions. Overall, trade is associated with a shift of radiative forcing from net importing to net exporting regions. Compared to greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, the short atmospheric lifetimes of aerosols cause large localized differences between consumption- and production-related radiative forcing. International efforts to reduce emissions in the exporting countries will help alleviate trade-related climate and health impacts of aerosols while lowering global emissions.

  14. Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends

    DOE PAGES

    Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; ...

    2015-09-08

    Here, we examined natural and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) changes from 1982-2010 using multiple estimates from remote sensing-based datasets and process-oriented land surface models. A significant increased trend of ET in each hemisphere was consistently revealed by observationally-constrained data and multi-model ensembles that considered historic natural and anthropogenic drivers. The climate impacts were simulated to determine the spatiotemporal variations in ET. Globally, rising CO2 ranked second in these models after the predominant climatic influences, and yielded a decreasing trend in canopy transpiration and ET, especially for tropical forests and high-latitude shrub land. Increased nitrogen deposition slightly amplified globalmore » ET via enhanced plant growth. Land-use-induced ET responses, albeit with substantial uncertainties across the factorial analysis, were minor globally, but pronounced locally, particularly over regions with intensive land-cover changes. Our study highlights the importance of employing multi-stream ET and ET-component estimates to quantify the strengthening anthropogenic fingerprint in the global hydrologic cycle.« less

  15. Values and uncertainties in the predictions of global climate models.

    PubMed

    Winsberg, Eric

    2012-06-01

    Over the last several years, there has been an explosion of interest and attention devoted to the problem of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in climate science-that is, to giving quantitative estimates of the degree of uncertainty associated with the predictions of global and regional climate models. The technical challenges associated with this project are formidable, and so the statistical community has understandably devoted itself primarily to overcoming them. But even as these technical challenges are being met, a number of persistent conceptual difficulties remain. So why is UQ so important in climate science? UQ, I would like to argue, is first and foremost a tool for communicating knowledge from experts to policy makers in a way that is meant to be free from the influence of social and ethical values. But the standard ways of using probabilities to separate ethical and social values from scientific practice cannot be applied in a great deal of climate modeling, because the roles of values in creating the models cannot be discerned after the fact-the models are too complex and the result of too much distributed epistemic labor. I argue, therefore, that typical approaches for handling ethical/social values in science do not work well here.

  16. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change.

    PubMed

    Moffitt, Sarah E; Hill, Tessa M; Roopnarine, Peter D; Kennett, James P

    2015-04-14

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L(-1) [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  17. Equilibrium of Global Amphibian Species Distributions with Climate

    PubMed Central

    Munguía, Mariana; Rahbek, Carsten; Rangel, Thiago F.; Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre F.; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2012-01-01

    A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a complete lineage across its entire distribution. We measure departures of equilibrium with contemporary climate for the distributions of the world amphibian species. Specifically, we fitted bioclimatic envelopes for 5544 species using three presence-only models. We then measured the proportion of the modeled envelope that is currently occupied by the species, as a metric of equilibrium of species distributions with climate. The assumption was that the greater the difference between modeled bioclimatic envelope and the occupied distribution, the greater the likelihood that species distribution would not be at equilibrium with contemporary climate. On average, amphibians occupied 30% to 57% of their potential distributions. Although patterns differed across regions, there were no significant differences among lineages. Species in the Neotropic, Afrotropics, Indo-Malay, and Palaearctic occupied a smaller proportion of their potential distributions than species in the Nearctic, Madagascar, and Australasia. We acknowledge that our models underestimate non equilibrium, and discuss potential reasons for the observed patterns. From a modeling perspective our results support the view that at global scale bioclimatic envelope models might perform similarly across lineages but differently across regions. PMID:22511938

  18. Malaria Ecology, Disease Burden and Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mccord, G. C.

    2014-12-01

    Malaria has afflicted human society for over 2 million years, and remains one of the great killer diseases today. The disease is the fourth leading cause of death for children under five in low income countries (after neonatal disorders, diarrhea, and pneumonia) and is responsible for at least one in every five child deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. It kills up to 3 million people a year, though in recent years scale up of anti-malaria efforts in Africa may have brought deaths to below 1 million. Malaria is highly conditioned by ecology, because of which climate change is likely to change the local dynamics of the disease through changes in ambient temperature and precipitation. To assess the potential implications of climate change for the malaria burden, this paper employs a Malaria Ecology Index from the epidemiology literature, relates it to malaria incidence and mortality using global country-level data , and then draws implications for 2100 by extrapolating the index using several general circulation model (GCM) predictions of temperature and precipitation. The results highlight the climate change driven increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease and the resulting complications for further gains in elimination. For illustrative purposes, I report the change in malaria incidence and mortality if climate change were to happen immediately under current technology and public health efforts.

  19. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L−1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. PMID:25825727

  20. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mLṡL-1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  1. Global mean sea level - Indicator of climate change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robock, A.; Hansen, J.; Gornitz, V.; Lebedeff, S.; Moore, E.; Etkins, R.; Epstein, E.

    1983-01-01

    A critical discussion is presented on the use by Etkins and Epstein (1982) of combined surface air temperature and sea level time series to draw conclusions concerning the discharge of the polar ice sheets. It is objected by Robock that they used Northern Hemisphere land surface air temperature records which are unrepresentative of global sea surface temperature, and he suggests that externally imposed volcanic dust and CO2 forcings can adequately account for observed temperature changes over the last century, with global sea level changing in passive response to sea change as a result of thermal expansion. Hansen et al. adduce evidence for global cooling due to ice discharge that has not exceeded a few hundredths of a degree centigrade in the last century, precluding any importance of this phenomenon in the interpretation of global mean temperature trends for this period. Etkins and Epstein reply that since their 1982 report additional evidence has emerged for the hypothesis that the polar ice caps are diminishing. It is reasserted that each of the indices discussed, including global mean sea surface temperature and sea level, polar ice sheet mass balance, water mass characteristics, and the spin rate and axis of rotation displacement of the earth, are physically linked and can be systematically monitored, as is currently being planned under the auspices of the National Climate Program.

  2. Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

    PubMed

    Morita, M

    2011-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

  3. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Overview of Sectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wuebbles, D.

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts by sector, including water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health and society. The resulting findings for the climate change impacts on these sectors are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge. Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. Threats to human health will increase. Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses. Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems. There are a variety of thresholds in

  4. Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

    PubMed

    Crabbe, M James C

    2008-10-01

    Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

  5. Climate change from the perspective of the surface energy balance and global hydrologic cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Ming, Y.; Schwarzkopf, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Major changes have occurred in the radiative drive of the surface since preindustrial times owing to both changes in the emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. These are to be contrasted with the drive at the top-of-the-atmosphere. Using global climate models and multiple observations of the surface fluxes from various platforms, we discuss how the energy balance has evolved with time and the manner in which this has affected the hydrologic cycle, including an account of the critical uncertainties. We make use of the simulations performed with global climate models and used in the IPCC assessments to diagnose the factors that are principally responsible for the changes, the contrasting atmospheric mechanisms exerted by greenhouse gases and aerosols, and the relative roles of the atmospheric constituents.

  6. Global Air Quality and Climate Impacts of Mitigating Short-lived Climate Pollution in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harper, K.; Unger, N.; Heyes, C.; Kiesewetter, G.; Klimont, Z.; Schoepp, W.; Wagner, F.

    2014-12-01

    China is a major emitter of harmful air pollutants, including the short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) and their precursors. Implementation of pollution control technologies provides a mechanism for simultaneously protecting human and ecosystem health and achieving near-term climate co-benefits; however, predicting the outcomes of technical and policy interventions is challenging because the SLCPs participate in both climate warming and cooling and share many common emission sources. Here, we present the results of a combined regional integrated assessment and global climate modeling study aimed at quantifying the near-term climate and air quality co-benefits of selective control of Chinese air pollution emissions. Results from IIASA's Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model indicate that methane emission reductions make up > 75% of possible CO2-equivalent emission reductions of the SLCPs and their precursors in China in 2030. A multi-pollutant emission reduction scenario incorporating the 2030 Chinese pollution control measures with the highest potential for future climate impact is applied to the NASA ModelE2 - Yale Interactive Terrestrial Biosphere (NASA ModelE2-YIBs) global carbon - chemistry - climate model to assess the regional and long-range impacts of Chinese SLCP mitigation measures. Using model simulations that incorporate dynamic methane emissions and photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emissions, we quantify the impacts of Chinese reductions of the short-lived air pollutants on radiative forcing and on surface ozone and particulate air pollution. Present-day modeled methane mole fractions are evaluated against SCIAMACHY methane columns and NOAA ESRL/GMD surface flask measurements.

  7. Homogeneity of a Global Multisatellite Soil Moisture Climate Data Record

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Su, Chun-Hsu; Ryu, Dongryeol; Dorigo, Wouter; Zwieback, Simon; Gruber, Alexander; Albergel, Clement; Reichle, Rolf H.; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    Climate Data Records (CDR) that blend multiple satellite products are invaluable for climate studies, trend analysis and risk assessments. Knowledge of any inhomogeneities in the CDR is therefore critical for making correct inferences. This work proposes a methodology to identify the spatiotemporal extent of the inhomogeneities in a 36-year, global multisatellite soil moisture CDR as the result of changing observing systems. Inhomogeneities are detected at up to 24 percent of the tested pixels with spatial extent varying with satellite changeover times. Nevertheless, the contiguous periods without inhomogeneities at changeover times are generally longer than 10 years. Although the inhomogeneities have measurable impact on the derived trends, these trends are similar to those observed in ground data and land surface reanalysis, with an average error less than 0.003 cubic meters per cubic meter per year. These results strengthen the basis of using the product for long-term studies and demonstrate the necessity of homogeneity testing of multisatellite CDRs in general.

  8. Homogeneity of a global multisatellite soil moisture climate data record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Chun-Hsu; Ryu, Dongryeol; Dorigo, Wouter; Zwieback, Simon; Gruber, Alexander; Albergel, Clement; Reichle, Rolf H.; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2016-11-01

    Climate Data Records (CDR) that blend multiple satellite products are invaluable for climate studies, trend analysis and risk assessments. Knowledge of any inhomogeneities in the CDR is therefore critical for making correct inferences. This work proposes a methodology to identify the spatiotemporal extent of the inhomogeneities in a 36 year, global multisatellite soil moisture CDR as the result of changing observing systems. Inhomogeneities are detected at up to 24% of the tested pixels with spatial extent varying with satellite changeover times. Nevertheless, the contiguous periods without inhomogeneities at changeover times are generally longer than 10 years. Although the inhomogeneities have measurable impact on the derived trends, these trends are similar to those observed in ground data and land surface reanalysis, with an average error less than 0.003 m3 m-3 y-1. These results strengthen the basis of using the product for long-term studies and demonstrate the necessity of homogeneity testing of multisatellite CDRs in general.

  9. Quantifying the effects of CO2-fertilized vegetation on future global climate and carbon dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Starley L.; Govindasamy, Bala; Mirin, Art; Caldeira, Ken; Delire, Christine; Milovich, Jose; Wickett, Mike; Erickson, David

    2004-12-01

    Climate and the global carbon cycle are a tightly coupled system where changes in climate affect exchange of atmospheric CO2 with the land biosphere and the ocean, and vice-versa. In particular, the response of the land biosphere to the ongoing increase in atmospheric CO2 is not well understood. To evaluate the approximate upper and lower limits of land carbon uptake, we perform simulations using a comprehensive climate-carbon model. In one case the land biosphere is vigorously fertilized by added CO2 and sequesters carbon throughout the 21st century. In a second case, CO2 fertilization saturates in year 2000; here the land becomes an additional source of CO2 by 2050. The predicted atmospheric CO2 concentration at year 2100 differs by 40% between the two cases. We show that current uncertainties preclude determination of whether the land biosphere will amplify or damp atmospheric CO2 increases by the end of the century.

  10. A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric; Auer, Ingeborg; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Brandsma, Theo; Brunetti, Michele; Dienst, Manuel; Domonkos, Peter; Gilabert, Alba; Lindén, Jenny; Milewska, Ewa; Nordli, Øyvind; Prohom, Marc; Rennie, Jared; Stepanek, Petr; Trewin, Blair; Vincent, Lucie; Willett, Kate; Wolff, Mareile

    2016-04-01

    In this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, in the framework of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long-term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., (i) station relocations, (ii) instrument height changes, (iii) instrumentation changes, (iv) observing environment changes, (v) different sampling intervals or data collection procedures, among others. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of long-term trends and variability of climate. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location, different radiation shields, etc.). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of air temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important

  11. Global climate change and planktic foraminiferal response in the Maastrichtian

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abramovich, Sigal; Yovel-Corem, Shlomit; Almogi-Labin, Ahuva; Benjamini, Chaim

    2010-04-01

    The lengthy warm, stable climate of the Cretaceous terminated in the Campanian with a cooling trend, interrupted in the early and latest Maastrichtian by two events of global warming, at ˜70-68 Ma and at 65.78-65.57 Ma. These climatic oscillations had a profound effect on pelagic ecosystems, especially on planktic foraminiferal populations. Here we compare biotic responses in the tropical-subtropical (Tethyan) open ocean and mesotrophic (Zin Valley, Israel) and oligotrophic (Tunisia) slopes, which correlate directly with global warming and cooling. The two warming events coincide with blooms of Guembelitria, an extreme opportunist genus best known as the main survivor of the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) catastrophe. In the Maastrichtian, Guembelitria bloomed in the uppermost surface water above shelf and slope environments but failed to reach the open ocean as it did at K-Pg. The coldest interval of the late Maastrichtian (˜68-65.78 Ma) is marked by an acme of the otherwise rare species Gansserina gansseri, a deep-dwelling keeled globotruncanid. The G. gansseri acme event can be traced from the deep ocean even onto the Tethyan slope, marking copious production and circulation of cold intermediate water. This acme is abruptly terminated by extinction of the species, a dramatic reversal attributed to a short-term global warming episode. This extinction corresponds precisely with the second bloom of Guembelitria that began ˜300 kyr prior to the K-Pg event. The antithetical relationship between blooming of Guembelitria and the G. gansseri acme reflects planktic foraminiferal sensitivity to warm-cool-warm-cool climatic oscillations marking the end of the Cretaceous.

  12. Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis.

    PubMed

    Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species' native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.

  13. Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis

    PubMed Central

    Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G. John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F. André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species’ native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great

  14. Studies of climate dynamics with innovative global-model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Xiaoming

    Climate simulations with different degrees of idealization are essential for the development of our understanding of the climate system. Studies in this dissertation employ carefully designed global-model simulations for the goal of gaining theoretical and conceptual insights into some problems of climate dynamics. Firstly, global warming-induced changes in extreme precipitation are investigated using a global climate model with idealized geography. The precipitation changes over an idealized north-south mid-latitude mountain barrier at the western margin of an otherwise flat continent are studied. The intensity of the 40 most intense events on the western slopes increases by about ~4°C of surface warming. In contrast, the intensity of the top 40 events on the eastern mountain slopes increases at about ~6°C. This higher sensitivity is due to enhanced ascent during the eastern-slope events, which can be explained in terms of linear mountain-wave theory relating to global warming-induced changes in the upper-tropospheric static stability and the tropopause level. Dominated by different dynamical factors, changes in the intensity of extreme precipitation events over plains and oceans might differ from changes over mountains. So the response of extreme precipitation over mountains and flat areas are further compared using larger data sets of simulated extreme events over the two types of surfaces. It is found that the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to increases in global mean surface temperature is 3% per °C lower over mountains than over the oceans or the plains. The difference in sensitivity among these regions is not due to thermodynamic effects, but rather to differences between the gravity-wave dynamics governing vertical velocities over the mountains and the cyclone dynamics governing vertical motions over the oceans and plains. The strengthening of latent heating in the storms over oceans and plains leads to stronger ascent in the warming climate

  15. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  16. Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Khomik, Myroslava; Bellarby, Jessica; Jung, Martin; Migliavacca, Mirco; Mu, Mingquan; Saatchi, Sassan; Santoro, Maurizio; Thurner, Martin; Weber, Ulrich; Ahrens, Bernhard; Beer, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro; Randerson, James T; Reichstein, Markus

    2014-10-09

    The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change is among the largest uncertainties affecting future climate change projections. The feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by changes in the turnover time of carbon in land ecosystems, which in turn is an ecosystem property that emerges from the interplay between climate, soil and vegetation type. Here we present a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times that combines new estimates of vegetation and soil organic carbon stocks and fluxes. We find that the overall mean global carbon turnover time is 23(+7)(-4) years (95 per cent confidence interval). On average, carbon resides in the vegetation and soil near the Equator for a shorter time than at latitudes north of 75° north (mean turnover times of 15 and 255 years, respectively). We identify a clear dependence of the turnover time on temperature, as expected from our present understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. Surprisingly, our analysis also reveals a similarly strong association between turnover time and precipitation. Moreover, we find that the ecosystem carbon turnover times simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate/carbon-cycle models vary widely and that numerical simulations, on average, tend to underestimate the global carbon turnover time by 36 per cent. The models show stronger spatial relationships with temperature than do observation-based estimates, but generally do not reproduce the strong relationships with precipitation and predict faster carbon turnover in many semi-arid regions. Our findings suggest that future climate/carbon-cycle feedbacks may depend more strongly on changes in the hydrological cycle than is expected at present and is considered in Earth system models.

  17. Global health equity and climate stabilisation: a common agenda.

    PubMed

    Friel, Sharon; Marmot, Michael; McMichael, Anthony J; Kjellstrom, Tord; Vågerö, Denny

    2008-11-08

    Although health has improved for many people, the extent of health inequities between and within countries is growing. Meanwhile, humankind is disrupting the global climate and other life-supporting environmental systems, thereby creating serious risks for health and wellbeing, especially in vulnerable populations but ultimately for everybody. Underlying determinants of health inequity and environmental change overlap substantially; they are signs of an economic system predicated on asymmetric growth and competition, shaped by market forces that mostly disregard health and environmental consequences rather than by values of fairness and support. A shift is needed in priorities in economic development towards healthy forms of urbanisation, more efficient and renewable energy sources, and a sustainable and fairer food system. Global interconnectedness and interdependence enable the social and environmental determinants of health to be addressed in ways that will increase health equity, reduce poverty, and build societies that live within environmental limits.

  18. Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

    2016-06-01

    This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse ~1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to ~0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent

  19. New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Myles R.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.; Reisinger, Andy; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Forster, Piers M.

    2016-08-01

    Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of `cumulative climate pollutants' such as carbon dioxide versus `short-lived climate pollutants' (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20-40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century, which may be necessary to limit warming to ``well below 2 °C'' (ref. ). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

  20. Health in the hot zone - How could global warming affect humans?

    SciTech Connect

    Monastersky, R.

    1996-04-06

    A soon-to-be-released report from the World Health Organization examines the health effects of global warming, calling climate change one of the largest public health challenges for the upcoming century. The issue extends beyond tropical illness: deaths caused directly by heat, dwindling agricultural yields etc. could all affect human health. This article looks at the following health related effects and gives an overview of the scientific information available on each: temperature and mortality; tropical trouble, including vecorborne diseases and increase in susceptable populations; and waterborne problems such as cholera, harmful algal bloomes, food shortages.

  1. Engaging Undergraduates in Methods of Communicating Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, C.; Colgan, M. W.; Humphreys, R. R.

    2010-12-01

    Global Climate Change has become a politically contentious issue in large part because of the failure of scientists to effectively communicate this complex subject to the general public. In a Global Change class, offered within a science department and therefore focused primarily on the underlying science, we have incorporated a citizen science module into the course to raise awareness among future scientists to the importance of communicating information to a broad and diverse audience. The citizen science component of this course focuses on how the predicted climate changes will alter the ecologic and economic landscape of the southeastern region. Helping potential scientists to learn to effectively communicate with the general public is particularly poignant for this predominate southern student body. A Pew Research Center for the People and the Press study found that less than 50% of Southerners surveyed felt that global warming is a very serious problem and over 30% of Southerners did not believe that there was any credible evidence that the Earth is warming. This interdisciplinary and topical nature of the course attracts student from a variety of disciplines, which provides the class with a cross section of students not typically found in most geology classes. This mixture provides a diversity of skills and interest that leads to success of the Citizen Science component. This learning approach was adapted from an education module developed through the Earth System Science Education Alliance and a newly developed component to that program on citizen science. Student teams developed several citizen science-related public service announcements concerning projected global change effects on Charleston and the South Carolina area. The scenario concerned the development of an information campaign for the City of Charleston, culminating with the student presentations on their findings to City officials. Through this real-life process, the students developed new

  2. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

  3. Multidecadal climate variability of global lands and oceans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J.; Palecki, M.A.

    2006-01-01

    Principal components analysis (PCA) and singular value decomposition (SVD) are used to identify the primary modes of decadal and multidecadal variability in annual global Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values and sea-surface temperature (SSTs). The PDSI and SST data for 1925-2003 were detrended and smoothed (with a 10-year moving average) to isolate the decadal and multidecadal variability. The first two principal components (PCs) of the PDSI PCA explained almost 38% of the decadal and multidecadal variance in the detrended and smoothed global annual PDSI data. The first two PCs of detrended and smoothed global annual SSTs explained nearly 56% of the decadal variability in global SSTs. The PDSI PCs and the SST PCs are directly correlated in a pairwise fashion. The first PDSI and SST PCs reflect variability of the detrended and smoothed annual Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as detrended and smoothed annual Indian Ocean SSTs. The second set of PCs is strongly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The SVD analysis of the cross-covariance of the PDSI and SST data confirmed the close link between the PDSI and SST modes of decadal and multidecadal variation and provided a verification of the PCA results. These findings indicate that the major modes of multidecadal variations in SSTs and land-surface climate conditions are highly interrelated through a small number of spatially complex but slowly varying teleconnections. Therefore, these relations may be adaptable to providing improved baseline conditions for seasonal climate forecasting. Published in 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Global and local concerns: what attitudes and beliefs motivate farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change?

    PubMed

    Haden, Van R; Niles, Meredith T; Lubell, Mark; Perlman, Joshua; Jackson, Louise E

    2012-01-01

    In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.

  5. Controls on the Archean climate system investigated with a global climate model.

    PubMed

    Wolf, E T; Toon, O B

    2014-03-01

    The most obvious means of resolving the faint young Sun paradox is to invoke large quantities of greenhouse gases, namely, CO2 and CH4. However, numerous changes to the Archean climate system have been suggested that may have yielded additional warming, thus easing the required greenhouse gas burden. Here, we use a three-dimensional climate model to examine some of the factors that controlled Archean climate. We examine changes to Earth's rotation rate, surface albedo, cloud properties, and total atmospheric pressure following proposals from the recent literature. While the effects of increased planetary rotation rate on surface temperature are insignificant, plausible changes to the surface albedo, cloud droplet number concentrations, and atmospheric nitrogen inventory may each impart global mean warming of 3-7 K. While none of these changes present a singular solution to the faint young Sun paradox, a combination can have a large impact on climate. Global mean surface temperatures at or above 288 K could easily have been maintained throughout the entirety of the Archean if plausible changes to clouds, surface albedo, and nitrogen content occurred.

  6. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

    2013-10-01

    In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  7. Global N2 fixation and its response to global climate change and increasing CO2 level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.; Houlton, B. Z.; Field, C. B.; Vitousek, P. M.

    2007-12-01

    Biological nitrogen fixation is the largest nitrogen input to many natural terrestrial ecosystems, particularly tropical ecosystems, thereby influencing primary production, CO2 uptake, and responses to climate change. However, our understanding of biological nitrogen fixation is still very limited, and the dominant plant family capable of fixing N2 symbiotically, the Leguminasae, exhibits considerable geographic variation in the terrestrial biosphere. Based on the principles of resource optimization, we developed a new model to constrain our understanding of the geographic distribution of N fixation globally. Our model treats N fixation according to the C cost of fixing N, coupled with the N cost associated with acquiring P from the soil for plant growth. The model was used to estimate the rate of global symbiotic N2 fixation and the response of symbiotic N2 fixers to changes in climate and rising atmospheric CO2. We shall discuss global N limitation of terrestrial carbon uptake and its implications for climate-carbon cycle feedbacks from present to year 2100.

  8. Treatment of Solar and Thermal Radiation in Global Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lacis, A. A.; Oinas, V.

    2015-12-01

    It is the interaction of solar and thermal radiation with the climate system constituents that determines the prevailing climate on Earth. The principal radiative constituents of the climate system are clouds, aerosols, greenhouse gases, and the ground surface. Accurate rendering of their interaction with the incident solar radiation and the outgoing thermal radiation is required if a climate model is to be capable of simulating and predicting the complex changes that take place in the terrestrial climate system. In the GISS climate model, these radiative tasks are accomplished with a GCM radiation model that utilizes the correlated k-distribution treatment that closely matches Line-by-Line accuracy (Lacis and Oinas, 1991) for the gaseous absorbers, and an adaptation of the doubling/adding method (Lacis and Hansen, 1974) to compute multiple scattering by clouds and aerosols. The radiative parameters to model the spectral dependence of solar and longwave radiation (UV to microwave) utilizes Mie scattering and T-matrix calculations covering the broad range of particle sizes and compositions encountered in the climate system. Cloud treatment also incorporates an empirical representation of sub-grid inhomogeneity and space-time variability of cloud optical properties (derived from ISCCP data) that utilizes a Monte Carlo-based re-scaling parameterization of the cloud plane-parallel radiative parameters (Cairns et al, 2001). The longwave calculations compute correlated k-distribution radiances at three quadrature points (without scattering), and include the effects of cloud scattering in parameterized form for the outgoing and downwelling LW fluxes. For hygroscopic aerosols (e.g., sulfates, nitrates, sea salt), the effects of changing relative humidity on particle size and refractive index are explicitly taken into account. In this way, the GISS GCM radiation model calculates the SW and LW radiative fluxes, and the corresponding radiative heating and cooling rates in

  9. Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M. B.; Harris, A. W.

    2008-12-01

    When allocating resources to address threats, decision makers are best served by having objective assessments of the relative magnitude of the threats in question. Asteroids greater than about 1 km in diameter are assumed by the planetary impact community to exceed a "global catastrophe threshold". Impacts from smaller objects are expected to cause local or regional destruction, and would be the proximate cause of most associated fatalities. Impacts above the threshold would be expected to alter the climate, killing billions of people and causing a collapse of civilization. In this apocalyptic scenario, only a small fraction of the casualties would be attributable to direct effects of the impact: the blast wave, thermal radiation, debris, ground motion, or tsunami. The vast majority of deaths would come later and be due to indirect causes: starvation, disease, or violence as a consequence of societal disruption related to the impact-induced global climate change. The concept of a catastrophe threshold comes from "nuclear winter" studies, which form the basis for quantitative estimates of the consequences of a large impact. The probability estimates come from astronomical observations and statistical analysis. Much of the impact threat, at its core, is a climate-change threat. Prior to the Spaceguard Survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), the chance of dying from an asteroid impact was estimated to be 1 in 25,000 (Chapman & Morrison, 1994). Most of the large asteroids have now been discovered, and none is on an impact trajectory. Moreover, new data show that mid-sized asteroids (tens to hundreds of meters across) are less abundant than previously thought, by a factor of three. We now estimate that the lifetime odds of being killed by the impact of one of the remaining undiscovered NEOs are about one in 720,000 for individuals with a life expectancy of 80 years (Harris, 2008). One objective way to compare the relative magnitude of the impact threat to that of

  10. Morphometry and average temperature affect lake stratification responses to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kraemer, Benjamin M.; Anneville, Orlane; Chandra, Sudeep; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M.; Rimmer, Alon; Schladow, S. Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M.; Tamatamah, Rashid; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; McIntyre, Peter B.

    2015-06-01

    Climate change is affecting lake stratification with consequences for water quality and the benefits that lakes provide to society. Here we use long-term temperature data (1970-2010) from 26 lakes around the world to show that climate change has altered lake stratification globally and that the magnitudes of lake stratification changes are primarily controlled by lake morphometry (mean depth, surface area, and volume) and mean lake temperature. Deep lakes and lakes with high average temperatures have experienced the largest changes in lake stratification even though their surface temperatures tend to be warming more slowly. These results confirm that the nonlinear relationship between water density and water temperature and the strong dependence of lake stratification on lake morphometry makes lake temperature trends relatively poor predictors of lake stratification trends.

  11. Is Global Warming significantly affecting atmospheric circulation extremes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; Penland, M. C.

    2012-12-01

    Although the anthropogenic influence on 20th century global warming is well established, the influence on the atmospheric circulation, especially on regional scales at which natural variability is relatively large, has proved harder to ascertain. And yet assertions are often made to this effect, especially in the media whenever an extreme warm or cold or dry or wet spell occurs and is tied to an apparent trend in the large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern. We are addressing this important issue using the longest currently available global atmospheric circulation dataset, an ensemble of 56 equally likely estimates of the atmospheric state within observational error bounds generated for every 6 hours from 1871 to the present in the 20th Century Reanalysis Project (20CR; Compo et al, QJRMS 2011). We previously presented evidence that long-term trends in the indices of several major modes of atmospheric circulation variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC), were weak or non-existent over the full period of record in the 20CR dataset. We have since investigated the possibility of a change in the probability density functions (PDFs) of the daily values of these indices, including changes in their tails, from the first to the second halves of the 20th century and found no statistically significant change. This was done taking into account the generally skewed and heavy-tailed character of these PDFs, and using both raw histograms and fitted "SGS" probability distributions (whose relevance in describing large-scale atmospheric variability was demonstrated in Sardeshmukh and Sura, J. Climate 2009) to assess the significance of any changes through extensive Monte Carlo simulations. We stress that without such an explicit accounting of departures from normal distributions, detection and attribution studies of changes in climate extremes may be seriously compromised and lead to wrong conclusions. Our

  12. Climate Impacts of Large-scale Wind Farms as Parameterized in a Global Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fitch, Anna

    2015-04-01

    The local, regional and global climate impacts of a large-scale global deployment of wind power in regionally high densities over land is investigated for a 60 year period. Wind farms are represented as elevated momentum sinks, as well as enhanced turbulence to represent turbine blade mixing in a global climate model, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). For a total installed capacity of 2.5 TW, to provide 16% of the world's projected electricity demand in 2050, minimal impacts are found, both regionally and globally, on temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, cloud and precipitation. A mean near-surface warming of 0.12+/-0.07 K is seen within the wind farms. Impacts on wind speed and turbulence are more pronounced, but largely confined to within the wind farm areas. Increasing the wind farm areas to provide an installed capacity of 10 TW, or 65% of the 2050 electricity demand, causes further impacts, however, they remain slight overall. Maximum temperature changes are less than 0.5 K in the wind farm areas. Impacts, both within the wind farms and beyond, become more pronounced with a doubling in turbine density, to provide 20 TW of installed capacity, or 130% of the 2050 electricity demand. However, maximum temperature changes remain less than 0.7 K. Representing wind farms instead as an increase in surface roughness generally produces similar mean results, however, maximum changes increase and influences on wind and turbulence are exaggerated. Overall, wind farm impacts are much weaker than those expected from greenhouse gas emissions, with global mean climate impacts very slight.

  13. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1994-09-01

    This research is ultimately concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany CO2-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions` exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. This report concerns research conducted with funding from the Carbon Dioxide Research Program (now the Global Climate Change Program) of the US Department of Energy via grant no. DE-FG02-90ER61019 during the period 15 July 1990 - 14 July 1994. This was a three-year award, extended to a fourth year (15 July 1993 - 14 July 1994) via a no-cost extension. It is important to emphasize that this award has been renewed for an additional two years (15 July 1993 - 14 July 1995) via grant no. DE-FG03-93ER61646 (with the same title). Because the project was originally envisioned to be a five-year effort, many of the important results and conclusions will be available for the Final Report of that second award. This report therefore concerns mainly preliminary conclusions and a discussion of progress toward understanding the central hypothesis of the research.

  14. THE IMPACT OF THERMAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect

    Phelan, Patrick; Abdelaziz, Omar; Otanicar, Todd; Phelan, Bernadette; Prasher, Ravi; Taylor, Robert; Tyagi, Himanshu

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change is recognized by many people around the world as being one of the most pressing issues facing our society today. The thermal engineering research community clearly plays an important role in addressing this critical issue, but what kind of thermal engineering research is, or will be, most impactful? In other words, in what directions should thermal engineering research be targeted in order to derive the greatest benefit with respect to global climate change? To answer this question we consider the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with potential economic impacts, resulting from thermal engineering research. Here a new model framework is introduced that allows a technological, sector-by-sector analysis of GHG emissions avoidance. For each sector, we consider the maximum reduction in CO2 emissions due to such research, and the cost effectiveness of the new efficient technologies. The results are normalized on a country-by-country basis, where we consider the USA, the European Union, China, India, and Australia as representative countries or regions. Among energy supply-side technologies, improvements in coal-burning power generation are seen as having the most beneficial CO2 and economic impacts. The one demand-side technology considered, residential space cooling, offers positive but limited impacts. The proposed framework can be extended to include additional technologies and impacts, such as water consumption.

  15. A Pathway-based Approach to Predicting Interactions between Chemical and Non-chemical Stressors: Applications to Global Climate Change

    EPA Science Inventory

    A variety of environmental variables influenced by global climate change (GCC) can directly or indirectly affect the health of organisms. These variables may include temperature, salinity, pH, and penetration of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in aquatic environments, and water shor...

  16. Global agricultural intensification during climate change: a role for genomics.

    PubMed

    Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; Cseke, Leland J; Dempewolf, Hannes; De Pace, Ciro; Edwards, David; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony E; Henry, Robert; Hori, Kiyosumi; Howe, Glenn Thomas; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike; Lightfoot, David; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Yano, Masahiro

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is now facing the 'perfect storm' of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic-assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change.

  17. Advancing Collaborative Climate Studies through Globally Distributed Geospatial Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, R.; Percivall, G.

    2009-12-01

    (note: acronym glossary at end of abstract) For scientists to have confidence in the veracity of data sets and computational processes not under their control, operational transparency must be much greater than previously required. Being able to have a universally understood and machine-readable language for describing such things as the completeness of metadata, data provenance and uncertainty, and the discrete computational steps in a complex process take on increased importance. OGC has been involved with technological issues associated with climate change since 2005 when we, along with the IEEE Committee on Earth Observation, began a close working relationship with GEO and GEOSS (http://earthobservations.org). GEO/GEOS provide the technology platform to GCOS who in turn represents the earth observation community to UNFCCC. OGC and IEEE are the organizers of the GEO/GEOSS Architecture Implementation Pilot (see http://www.ogcnetwork.net/AIpilot). This continuing work involves closely working with GOOS (Global Ocean Observing System) and WMO (World Meteorological Organization). This session reports on the findings of recent work within the OGC’s community of software developers and users to apply geospatial web services to the climate studies domain. The value of this work is to evolve OGC web services, moving from data access and query to geo-processing and workflows. Two projects will be described, the GEOSS API-2 and the CCIP. AIP is a task of the GEOSS Architecture and Data Committee. During its duration, two GEO Tasks defined the project: AIP-2 began as GEO Task AR-07-02, to lead the incorporation of contributed components consistent with the GEOSS Architecture using a GEO Web Portal and a Clearinghouse search facility to access services through GEOSS Interoperability Arrangements in support of the GEOSS Societal Benefit Areas. AIP-2 concluded as GEOS Task AR-09-01b, to develop and pilot new process and infrastructure components for the GEOSS Common

  18. Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikšovský, Jiří; Holtanová, Eva; Pišoft, Petr

    2016-03-01

    Monthly near-surface temperature anomalies from several gridded data sets (GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth, MLOST, HadCRUT4, 20th Century Reanalysis) were investigated and compared with regard to the presence of components attributable to external climate forcings (associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases, as well as solar and volcanic activity) and to major internal climate variability modes (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and variability characterized by the Trans-Polar Index). Multiple linear regression was used to separate components related to individual explanatory variables in local monthly temperatures as well as in their global means, over the 1901-2010 period. Strong correlations of temperature and anthropogenic forcing were confirmed for most of the globe, whereas only weaker and mostly statistically insignificant connections to solar activity were indicated. Imprints of volcanic forcing were found to be largely insignificant in the local temperatures, in contrast to the clear volcanic signature in their global averages. Attention was also paid to the manifestations of short-term time shifts in the responses to the forcings, and to differences in the spatial fingerprints detected from individual temperature data sets. It is shown that although the resemblance of the response patterns is usually strong, some regional contrasts appear. Noteworthy differences from the other data sets were found especially for the 20th Century Reanalysis, particularly for the components attributable to anthropogenic forcing over land, but also in the response to volcanism and in some of the teleconnection patterns related to the internal climate variability modes.

  19. Disease emergence from global climate and land use change.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Olson, Sarah H; Uejio, Christopher K; Gibbs, Holly K

    2008-11-01

    Climate change and land use change can affect multiple infectious diseases of humans, acting either independently or synergistically. Expanded efforts in empiric and future scenario-based risk assessment are required to anticipate problems. Moreover, the many health impacts of climate and land use change must be examined in the context of the myriad other environmental and behavioral determinants of disease. To optimize prevention capabilities, upstream environmental approaches must be part of any intervention, rather than assaults on single agents of disease. Clinicians must develop stronger ties, not only to public health officials and scientists, but also to earth and environmental scientists and policy makers. Without such efforts, we will inevitably benefit our current generation at the cost of generations to come.

  20. Global Squeeze: Assessing Climate-Critical Resource Constraints for Coastal Climate Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chase, N. T.; Becker, A.; Schwegler, B.; Fischer, M.

    2014-12-01

    The projected impacts of climate change in the coastal zone will require local planning and local resources to adapt to increasing risks of social, environmental, and economic consequences from extreme events. This means that, for the first time in human history, aggregated local demands could outpace global supply of certain "climate-critical resources." For example, construction materials such as sand and gravel, steel, and cement may be needed to fortify many coastal locations at roughly the same point in time if decision makers begin to construct new storm barriers or elevate coastal lands. Where might adaptation bottlenecks occur? Can the world produce enough cement to armour the world's seaports as flood risks increase due to sea-level rise and more intense storms? Just how many coastal engineers would multiple such projects require? Understanding such global implications of adaptation requires global datasets—such as bathymetry, coastal topography, local sea-level rise and storm surge projections, and construction resource production capacity—that are currently unavailable at a resolution appropriate for a global-scale analysis. Our research group has identified numerous gaps in available data necessary to make such estimates on both the supply and demand sides of this equation. This presentation examines the emerging need and current availability of these types of datasets and argues for new coordinated efforts to develop and share such data.

  1. Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures

    PubMed Central

    Olson, Deanna H.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

    2016-01-01

    Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for

  2. Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

    PubMed

    Xie, Gisselle Yang; Olson, Deanna H; Blaustein, Andrew R

    2016-01-01

    Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for

  3. The potential negative impacts of global climate change on tropical montane cloud forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foster, Pru

    2001-10-01

    Nearly every aspect of the cloud forest is affected by regular cloud immersion, from the hydrological cycle to the species of plants and animals within the forest. Since the altitude band of cloud formation on tropical mountains is limited, the tropical montane cloud forest occurs in fragmented strips and has been likened to island archipelagoes. This isolation and uniqueness promotes explosive speciation, exceptionally high endemism, and a great sensitivity to climate. Global climate change threatens all ecosystems through temperature and rainfall changes, with a typical estimate for altitude shifts in the climatic optimum for mountain ecotones of hundreds of meters by the time of CO 2 doubling. This alone suggests complete replacement of many of the narrow altitude range cloud forests by lower altitude ecosystems, as well as the expulsion of peak residing cloud forests into extinction. However, the cloud forest will also be affected by other climate changes, in particular changes in cloud formation. A number of global climate models suggest a reduction in low level cloudiness with the coming climate changes, and one site in particular, Monteverde, Costa Rica, appears to already be experiencing a reduction in cloud immersion. The coming climate changes appear very likely to upset the current dynamic equilibrium of the cloud forest. Results will include biodiversity loss, altitude shifts in species' ranges and subsequent community reshuffling, and possibly forest death. Difficulties for cloud forest species to survive in climate-induced migrations include no remaining location with a suitable climate, no pristine location to colonize, migration rates or establishment rates that cannot keep up with climate change rates and new species interactions. We review previous cloud forest species redistributions in the paleo-record in light of the coming changes. The characteristic epiphytes of the cloud forest play an important role in the light, hydrological and nutrient

  4. Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, W.-C.; Stone, P. H.

    1980-01-01

    The feedback between the ice albedo and temperature is included in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on global sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current climate conditions. This ice-albedo feedback amplifies global sensitivity by 26 and 39%, respectively, for assumptions of fixed cloud altitude and fixed cloud temperature. The global sensitivity is not affected significantly if the latitudinal variations of mean solar zenith angle and cloud cover are included in the global model. The differences in global sensitivity between one-dimensional radiative-convective models and energy balance models are examined. It is shown that the models are in close agreement when the same feedback mechanisms are included. The one-dimensional radiative-convective model with ice-albedo feedback included is used to compute the equilibrium ice line as a function of solar constant.

  5. Interactive effects of global climate change and pollution on marine microbes: the way ahead

    PubMed Central

    Coelho, Francisco J R C; Santos, Ana L; Coimbra, Joana; Almeida, Adelaide; Cunha, Ângela; Cleary, Daniel F R; Calado, Ricardo; Gomes, Newton C M

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change has the potential to seriously and adversely affect marine ecosystem functioning. Numerous experimental and modeling studies have demonstrated how predicted ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can affect marine microbes. However, researchers have largely ignored interactions between ocean acidification, increased UVR and anthropogenic pollutants in marine environments. Such interactions can alter chemical speciation and the bioavailability of several organic and inorganic pollutants with potentially deleterious effects, such as modifying microbial-mediated detoxification processes. Microbes mediate major biogeochemical cycles, providing fundamental ecosystems services such as environmental detoxification and recovery. It is, therefore, important that we understand how predicted changes to oceanic pH, UVR, and temperature will affect microbial pollutant detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. The intrinsic characteristics of microbes, such as their short generation time, small size, and functional role in biogeochemical cycles combined with recent advances in molecular techniques (e.g., metagenomics and metatranscriptomics) make microbes excellent models to evaluate the consequences of various climate change scenarios on detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. In this review, we highlight the importance of microbial microcosm experiments, coupled with high-resolution molecular biology techniques, to provide a critical experimental framework to start understanding how climate change, anthropogenic pollution, and microbiological interactions may affect marine ecosystems in the future. PMID:23789087

  6. Interactive effects of global climate change and pollution on marine microbes: the way ahead.

    PubMed

    Coelho, Francisco J R C; Santos, Ana L; Coimbra, Joana; Almeida, Adelaide; Cunha, Angela; Cleary, Daniel F R; Calado, Ricardo; Gomes, Newton C M

    2013-06-01

    Global climate change has the potential to seriously and adversely affect marine ecosystem functioning. Numerous experimental and modeling studies have demonstrated how predicted ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can affect marine microbes. However, researchers have largely ignored interactions between ocean acidification, increased UVR and anthropogenic pollutants in marine environments. Such interactions can alter chemical speciation and the bioavailability of several organic and inorganic pollutants with potentially deleterious effects, such as modifying microbial-mediated detoxification processes. Microbes mediate major biogeochemical cycles, providing fundamental ecosystems services such as environmental detoxification and recovery. It is, therefore, important that we understand how predicted changes to oceanic pH, UVR, and temperature will affect microbial pollutant detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. The intrinsic characteristics of microbes, such as their short generation time, small size, and functional role in biogeochemical cycles combined with recent advances in molecular techniques (e.g., metagenomics and metatranscriptomics) make microbes excellent models to evaluate the consequences of various climate change scenarios on detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. In this review, we highlight the importance of microbial microcosm experiments, coupled with high-resolution molecular biology techniques, to provide a critical experimental framework to start understanding how climate change, anthropogenic pollution, and microbiological interactions may affect marine ecosystems in the future.

  7. Sensitivity of a global climate model to the critical Richardson number in the boundary layer parameterization

    DOE PAGES

    Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yangang; Gao, Zhiqiu; ...

    2015-04-27

    The critical bulk Richardson number (Ricr) is an important parameter in planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes used in many climate models. This paper examines the sensitivity of a Global Climate Model, the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, BCC_AGCM to Ricr. The results show that the simulated global average of PBL height increases nearly linearly with Ricr, with a change of about 114 m for a change of 0.5 in Ricr. The surface sensible (latent) heat flux decreases (increases) as Ricr increases. The influence of Ricr on surface air temperature and specific humidity is not significant. The increasingmore » Ricr may affect the location of the Westerly Belt in the Southern Hemisphere. Further diagnosis reveals that changes in Ricr affect stratiform and convective precipitations differently. Increasing Ricr leads to an increase in the stratiform precipitation but a decrease in the convective precipitation. Significant changes of convective precipitation occur over the inter-tropical convergence zone, while changes of stratiform precipitation mostly appear over arid land such as North Africa and Middle East.« less

  8. Sensitivity of a global climate model to the critical Richardson number in the boundary layer parameterization

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yangang; Gao, Zhiqiu; Li, Dan

    2015-04-27

    The critical bulk Richardson number (Ricr) is an important parameter in planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes used in many climate models. This paper examines the sensitivity of a Global Climate Model, the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, BCC_AGCM to Ricr. The results show that the simulated global average of PBL height increases nearly linearly with Ricr, with a change of about 114 m for a change of 0.5 in Ricr. The surface sensible (latent) heat flux decreases (increases) as Ricr increases. The influence of Ricr on surface air temperature and specific humidity is not significant. The increasing Ricr may affect the location of the Westerly Belt in the Southern Hemisphere. Further diagnosis reveals that changes in Ricr affect stratiform and convective precipitations differently. Increasing Ricr leads to an increase in the stratiform precipitation but a decrease in the convective precipitation. Significant changes of convective precipitation occur over the inter-tropical convergence zone, while changes of stratiform precipitation mostly appear over arid land such as North Africa and Middle East.

  9. Regional features of global climate change in the Carpathian Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pongrácz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Matyasovszky, I.; Schlanger, V.

    2003-04-01

    IPCC TAR suggests that eastern and central European countries could become highly vulnerable to global warming. Our investigations support these findings, especially, in case of two subregions: (1) Hungarian Great Plain, (2) watershed of the Lake Balaton. Severe shortage of precipitation occurred in the last few decades in both areas, thus, ecosystems must face to high risk of environmental change. The Great Plain is the largest agricultural area in Hungary where high variability of floods and droughts causes severe damages in crop yields and human settlements. Frequent extreme events may result in unstable climate conditions and increased vulnerability of agricultural activity in this region. One of the largest lake in Europe is the Lake Balaton with its unique 3.3 meter depth on average. In the last few years, the mean water level has decreased by 0.6-0.8 m several times for a few months period. The only outflow of the lake, a small creek (called Sio) has been regulated in 1863 in order to control the water runoff from the lake to the river Danube (120 km distance). The aim of our investigations is to compare climate change scenarios for these two sensitive regions. Two downscaling techniques have been compared, namely, (1) stochastical downscaling method nested in coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs, (2) an upwelling diffusion energy balance model combined with GCM outputs and IPCC emission scenarios. The stochastical downscaling method includes large-scale circulation of the atmosphere, and also, it is able to represent the linkage between the local surface variables and large-scale circulation. Seasonal and annual changes in temperature and precipitation have been determined in case of the 2xCO2 climate and compared to historical data. Furthermore, several IPCC emission scenarios have been compared and GCM outputs have been analysed in order to project climate conditions for the 21st century in the Carpathian Basin.

  10. Globally Gridded Satellite (GridSat) Observations for Climate Studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knapp, Kenneth R.; Ansari, Steve; Bain, Caroline L.; Bourassa, Mark A.; Dickinson, Michael J.; Funk, Chris; Helms, Chip N.; Hennon, Christopher C.; Holmes, Christopher D.; Huffman, George J.; Kossin, James P.; Lee, Hai-Tien; Loew, Alexander; Magnusdottir, Gudrun

    2012-01-01

    Geostationary satellites have provided routine, high temporal resolution Earth observations since the 1970s. Despite the long period of record, use of these data in climate studies has been limited for numerous reasons, among them: there is no central archive of geostationary data for all international satellites, full temporal and spatial resolution data are voluminous, and diverse calibration and navigation formats encumber the uniform processing needed for multi-satellite climate studies. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project set the stage for overcoming these issues by archiving a subset of the full resolution geostationary data at approx.10 km resolution at 3 hourly intervals since 1983. Recent efforts at NOAA s National Climatic Data Center to provide convenient access to these data include remapping the data to a standard map projection, recalibrating the data to optimize temporal homogeneity, extending the record of observations back to 1980, and reformatting the data for broad public distribution. The Gridded Satellite (GridSat) dataset includes observations from the visible, infrared window, and infrared water vapor channels. Data are stored in the netCDF format using standards that permit a wide variety of tools and libraries to quickly and easily process the data. A novel data layering approach, together with appropriate satellite and file metadata, allows users to access GridSat data at varying levels of complexity based on their needs. The result is a climate data record already in use by the meteorological community. Examples include reanalysis of tropical cyclones, studies of global precipitation, and detection and tracking of the intertropical convergence zone.

  11. Advancing global hydro-climatological data archives to support climate change impact assessments on water resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saile, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variations and changing climate will very likely alter the rate and nature of hydrological processes and consequently affect water resources in many regions. Current General Circulation Models and downscaling methods that are increasingly used to assess changes in the water cycle and water resource vulnerabilities introduce a cascade of uncertainties that cannot realistically be dealt with at the moment and are too inaccurate to support improved decision-making for water management and for future water systems design. Therefore, water managers need not only improved hydrological and climate modelling and downscaling methods but also access to adequate hydro-meteorological monitoring networks. The Global Terrestrial Network for Hydrology (GTN-H), a joint effort by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and several global observing systems, aims at integrating in-situ and remote sensing hydrological observations with hydrological model results held by its partner institutions to support a wide range of hydrological applications including research of global and regional climate change. Adhering to the different needs of all data users (scientists, policy makes and other stakeholders) and bridging the gap between the distributed datasets, currently a new information system is being developed to enable web-based discovery, access and analysis of observation data and derived products served through GTN-H. This system is built on international standards published by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) using open standardized web services, namely (1) Catalogue Services for data discovery, (2) Web Map Services for data visualization and (3) Web Feature Services, Web Coverage Services and Sensor Observation Services for data access. This presentation will give an overview about the GTN-H data archive and the design of the new information system including an outlook of its potential use for water related climate change impact assessments.

  12. Assessment Of The Impact Of ESA CCI Land Cover Information For Global Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khlystova, Iryna G.; Loew, A.; Hangemann, S.; Defourny, P.; Brockmann, C.; Bontemps, S.

    2013-12-01

    Addressing the issues of climate change, the European Space Agency has recently initiated the Global Monitoring of an Essential Climate Variables program (ESA Climate Change Initiative). The main objective is to realize the full potential of the long-term global Earth Observation archives that ESA has established over the last thirty years. Due to well organized data access and transparency for the data quality, as well as long-term scientific and technical support, the provided datasets have become very attractive for the use in Earth System Modeling. The Max Plank Institute for Meteorology is contributing to the ESA CCI via the Climate Modeler User Group (CMUG) activities and is responsible for providing a modeler perspective on the Land Cover and Fire Essential Climate Variables. The new ESA land cover ECV has recently released a new global 300-m land cover dataset. This dataset is supported by an interactive tool which allows flexible horizontal re-scaling and conversion from currently accepted satellite specific land classes to the model- specific Plant Functional Types (PFT) categorization. Such a dataset is an ideal starting point for the generation of the land cover information for the initialization of model cover fractions. In this presentation, we show how the usage of this new dataset affects the model performance, comparing it to the standard model set-up, in terms of energy and water fluxes. To do so, we performed a number of offline land-system simulations with original standard JSBACH land cover information and with the new ESA CCI land cover product. We have analyzed the impact of land cover on a simulated surface albedo, temperature and energy fluxes as well as on the biomass load and fire carbon emissions.

  13. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  14. Global biogeophysical interactions between historical deforestation and climate through land surface albedo and interactive ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ye

    2017-02-01

    Deforestation is expanding and accelerating into the remaining areas of undisturbed forest, and the quality of the remaining forests is declining today. Assessing the climatic impacts of deforestation can help to rectify this alarming situation. In this paper, how historical deforestation may affect global climate through interactive ocean and surface albedo is examined using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). Control and anomaly integrations are performed for 1000 years. In the anomaly case, cropland is significantly expanded since AD 1700. The response of climate in deforested areas is not uniform between the regions. In the background of a global cooling of 0.08 °C occurring with cooler surface air above 0.4 °C across 30° N to 75° N from March to September, the surface albedo increase has a global cooling effect in response to global-scale replacement of forests by cropland, especially over northern mid-high latitudes. The northern mid-latitude (30° N-60° N) suffers a prominent cooling in June, suggesting that this area is most sensitive to cropland expansion through surface albedo. Most regions show a consistent trend between the overall cooling in response to historical deforestation and its resulting cooling due to surface albedo anomaly. Furthermore, the effect of the interactive ocean on shaping the climate response to deforestation is greater than that of prescribed SSTs in most years with a maximum spread of 0.05 °C. This difference is more prominent after year 1800 than that before due to the more marked deforestation. These findings show the importance of the land cover change and the land surface albedo, stressing the necessity to analyze other biogeophysical processes of deforestation using interactive ocean.

  15. Indicators on economic risk from global climate change.

    PubMed

    Grossmann, Wolf D; Steininger, Karl; Grossmann, Iris; Magaard, Lorenz

    2009-08-15

    Climate change mitigation requires a rapid decrease of global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from their present value of 8.4 Gt/C/year to, as of current knowledge, approximately 1 GtC/year by the end of the century. The necessary decrease of GHG emissions will have large impacts on existing and new investments with long lifetimes, such coal-fired power plants or buildings. Strategic decision making for major investments can be facilitated by indicators that express the likelihood of costly retrofitting or shut-down of carbon intensive equipment over time. We provide a set of simple indicators that support assessment and decision making in this field. Given a certain emissions target, carbon allowance prices in a cap-and-trade plan will depend on the development of the global economy and the degree to which the target is approached on the global and national levels. The indicators measure the degree to which a given emissions target is approached nationally and assess risks for long-lived investments subject to a range of emissions targets. A comparative case study on existing coal-fired power plants with planned plants and utility-scale photovoltaic power-plants confirms that high risk for coal-fired power plants is emerging. New legislation further confirms this result.

  16. Modelling global-scale climate impacts of the late Miocene Messinian Salinity Crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanovic, R. F.; Valdes, P. J.; Flecker, R.; Gutjahr, M.

    2013-08-01

    Late Miocene tectonic changes in Mediterranean-Atlantic connectivity and climatic changes caused Mediterranean salinity to fluctuate dramatically, including a ten-fold increase and near-freshening. Recent proxy- and model-based evidence suggests that at times during this Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC, 5.96-5.33 Ma), highly-saline and highly-fresh Mediterranean water flowed into the North Atlantic Ocean, whilst at others, no Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) reached the Atlantic. By running extreme, sensitivity-type experiments with a fully-coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, we investigate the potential of these various MSC MOW scenarios to impact global-scale climate. The simulations suggest that MOW had a greater influence on North Atlantic Ocean circulation and climate than it does today. We also find that depending on the presence, strength and salinity of MOW, the MSC could have been capable of cooling mid-high northern latitudes by more than 1.2 °C, with the greatest cooling taking place in the Labrador, Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian and Barents Seas. With hypersaline-MOW, a component of North Atlantic Deep Water formation shifts to the Mediterranean, strengthening the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) south of 35° N by 3-7 Sv. With hyposaline-MOW, AMOC completely shuts down, inducing a bipolar climate anomaly with strong cooling in the North (up to -10.5 °C) and weaker warming in the South (up to +2.5 °C). These simulations identify key target regions and climate variables for future proxy-reconstructions to provide the best and most robust test cases for (a) assessing Messinian model performance, (b) evaluating Mediterranean-Atlantic connectivity during the MSC and (c) establishing whether or not the MSC could ever have affected global-scale climate.

  17. Modelling global-scale climate impacts of the late Miocene Messinian Salinity Crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanovic, R. F.; Valdes, P. J.; Flecker, R.; Gutjahr, M.

    2014-03-01

    Late Miocene tectonic changes in Mediterranean-Atlantic connectivity and climatic changes caused Mediterranean salinity to fluctuate dramatically, including a ten-fold increase and near-freshening. Recent proxy- and model-based evidence suggests that at times during this Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC, 5.96-5.33 Ma), highly saline and highly fresh Mediterranean water flowed into the North Atlantic Ocean, whilst at others, no Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) reached the Atlantic. By running extreme, sensitivity-type experiments with a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, we investigate the potential of these various MSC MOW scenarios to impact global-scale climate. The simulations suggest that although the effect remains relatively small, MOW had a greater influence on North Atlantic Ocean circulation and climate than it does today. We also find that depending on the presence, strength and salinity of MOW, the MSC could have been capable of cooling mid-high northern latitudes by a few degrees, with the greatest cooling taking place in the Labrador, Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian and Barents seas. With hypersaline MOW, a component of North Atlantic Deep Water formation shifts to the Mediterranean, strengthening the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) south of 35° N by 1.5-6 Sv. With hyposaline MOW, AMOC completely shuts down, inducing a bipolar climate anomaly with strong cooling in the north (mainly -1 to -3 °C, but up to -8 °C) and weaker warming in the south (up to +0.5 to +2.7 °C). These simulations identify key target regions and climate variables for future proxy reconstructions to provide the best and most robust test cases for (a) assessing Messinian model performance, (b) evaluating Mediterranean-Atlantic connectivity during the MSC and (c) establishing whether or not the MSC could ever have affected global-scale climate.

  18. Assessing the Global and Arctic Transport of Polychlorinated Biphenyls Under Present and Future Climate and Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedman, C. L.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We simulate the present and potential future atmospheric transport and fate of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), using the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. PCBs are toxic, persistent, and bioaccumulative chemicals whose production and use have been banned internationally. PCBs continue to cycle through the global atmosphere, however, because of their persistence, passive emissions from remaining stocks, and release from natural storage reservoirs such as oceans or soils. In particular, PCBs have been shown to transport long distances in the atmosphere to locations remote from emissions, such as the Arctic, where they can accumulate in wildlife and humans, putting health at risk. Previous studies have suggested that PCBs may be remobilized in a changing climate because higher temperatures will cause greater re-emissions from surface reservoirs. Here, we modify GEOS-Chem to simulate atmospheric PCB transport and investigate the relative effects of predicted climate changes and projected declines in primary emissions, especially on transport to the Arctic. We quantify changes in atmospheric concentrations of two PCBs (CB28 and CB 153) under 2050 climate ("FC"); 2050 emissions ("FE"); and 2050 climate and emissions combined ("FCFE"); relative to a 2000 climate, 2000 emissions control scenario, and determine the major processes affecting these changes. In the version of the model presented here, only soil-atmosphere surface interactions are considered, though future versions will include interaction with other surface media. Our results suggest projected 2050 emissions will play a stronger role than 2050 climate in controlling PCB concentrations of different volatilities. Temperature increases under FC cause increases in emissions of only 4% at most, resulting in negligible concentration changes relative to the FE scenario, in which primary emissions are projected to decline to <0.05% of present-day. Thus, the concentrations in the combined FCFE scenario are

  19. A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric

    2015-04-01

    n this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, under the umbrella of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., relocations and changes in instrumentation, instrument height or data collection and manipulation procedures. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of trends and variability. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. .The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important potentially biasing transitions are the adoption of Stevenson screens, efforts to reduce undercatchment of precipitation or the move to automatic weather

  20. Using Argumentation to Foster Learning about Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golden, B. W.

    2012-12-01

    Given the complexity of the science involving climate change (IPCC, 2007), its lack of curricular focus within US K-12 schooling (Golden, 2009), and the difficulty in effecting conceptual change in science (Vosniadou, 2007), we sought to research middle school students' conceptions about climate change, in addition to how those conceptions changed during and as a result of a deliberately designed global climate change (GCC) unit. In a sixth grade classroom, a unit was designed which incorporated Argumentation-Driven Inquiry (Sampson & Grooms, 2010). That is, students were assigned to groups and asked to make sense of standard GCC data such as paleoclimate data from ice cores, direct temperature measurement, and Keeling curves, in addition to learning about the greenhouse effect in a modeling lesson (Hocking, et al, 1993). The students were then challenged, in groups, to create, on whiteboards, explanations and defend these explanations to and with their peers. They did two iterations of this argumentation. The first iteration focused on the simple identification of climate change patterns. The second focused on developing causal explanations for those patterns. After two rounds of such argumentation, the students were then asked to write (individually) a "final" argument which accounted for the given data. Interview and written data were analyzed prior to the given unit, during it, and after it, in order to capture complicated nuance that might escape detection by simpler research means such as surveys. Several findings emerged which promised to be of interest to climate change educators. The first is that many students tended to "know" many "facts" about climate change, but were unable to connect these disparate facts in any meaningful ways. A second finding is that while no students changed their entire belief systems, even after a robust unit which would seemingly challenge such, each student engaged did indeed modify the manner in which they discussed the

  1. Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leclère, D.; Havlík, P.; Fuss, S.; Schmid, E.; Mosnier, A.; Walsh, B.; Valin, H.; Herrero, M.; Khabarov, N.; Obersteiner, M.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis.

  2. Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Calvin, Katherine V.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; Mueller, C.; Reilly, J. M.; Robertson, Richard; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.

  3. Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

    PubMed

    Patz, J A; Olson, S H

    2006-01-01

    The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

  4. Impacts of Soil-aquifer Heat and Water Fluxes on Simulated Global Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krakauer, N.Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, B. I.

    2013-01-01

    Climate models have traditionally only represented heat and water fluxes within relatively shallow soil layers, but there is increasing interest in the possible role of heat and water exchanges with the deeper subsurface. Here, we integrate an idealized 50m deep aquifer into the land surface module of the GISS ModelE general circulation model to test the influence of aquifer-soil moisture and heat exchanges on climate variables. We evaluate the impact on the modeled climate of aquifer-soil heat and water fluxes separately, as well as in combination. The addition of the aquifer to ModelE has limited impact on annual-mean climate, with little change in global mean land temperature, precipitation, or evaporation. The seasonal amplitude of deep soil temperature is strongly damped by the soil-aquifer heat flux. This not only improves the model representation of permafrost area but propagates to the surface, resulting in an increase in the seasonal amplitude of surface air temperature of >1K in the Arctic. The soil-aquifer water and heat fluxes both slightly decrease interannual variability in soil moisture and in landsurface temperature, and decrease the soil moisture memory of the land surface on seasonal to annual timescales. The results of this experiment suggest that deepening the modeled land surface, compared to modeling only a shallower soil column with a no-flux bottom boundary condition, has limited impact on mean climate but does affect seasonality and interannual persistence.

  5. Global climate impacts of bioenergy from forests: implications from biogenic CO2 fluxes and surface albedo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cherubini, Francesco; Bright, Ryan; Strømman, Anders

    2013-04-01

    Production of biomass for bioenergy can alter biogeochemical and biogeophysical mechanisms, thus affecting local and global climate. Recent scientific developments mainly embraced impacts from land use changes resulting from area-expanded biomass production, with several extensive insights available. Comparably less attention, however, is given to the assessment of direct land surface-atmosphere climate impacts of bioenergy systems under rotation such as in plantations and forested ecosystems, whereby land use disturbances are only temporary. In this work, we assess bioenergy systems representative of various biomass species (spruce, pine, aspen, etc.) and climatic regions (US, Canada, Norway, etc.), for both stationary and vehicle applications. In addition to conventional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through life cycle activities (harvest, transport, processing, etc.), we evaluate the contributions to global warming of temporary effects resulting from the perturbation in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration caused by the timing of biogenic CO2 fluxes and in surface reflectivity (albedo). Biogenic CO2 fluxes on site after harvest are directly measured through Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) chronosequences from flux towers established at the interface between the forest canopy and the atmosphere and are inclusive of all CO2 exchanges occurring in the forest (e.g., sequestration of CO2 in growing trees, emissions from soil respiration and decomposition of dead organic materials). These primary data based on empirical measurements provide an accurate representation of the forest carbon sink behavior over time, and they are used in the elaboration of high-resolution IRFs for biogenic CO2 emissions. Chronosequence of albedo values from clear-cut to pre-harvest levels are gathered from satellite data (MODIS black-sky shortwave broadband, Collection 5, MCD43A). Following the cause-effect chain from emissions to damages, through radiative forcing and changes

  6. Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H; Molina, Mario J

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by -2.5 and +1.3 W m(-2), respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors' knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale.

  7. Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol–climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by −2.5 and +1.3 W m−2, respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors’ knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale. PMID:24733923

  8. [Effects of global climate change on the ecological characteristics and biogeochemical significance of marine viruses--A review].