Growth history and crown vine coverage are principal factors influencing growth and mortality rates of big-leaf mahogany Swietenia macrophylla in Brazil

Treesearch

James Grogan; R. Matthew Landis

2009-01-01

1. Current efforts to model population dynamics of high-value tropical timber species largely assume that individual growth history is unimportant to population dynamics, yet growth autocorrelation is known to adversely affect model predictions. In this study, we analyse a decade of annual census data from a natural population of big-leaf mahogany Swietenia macrophylla...

Evolutionary dynamics on any population structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Benjamin; Lippner, Gabor; Chen, Yu-Ting; Fotouhi, Babak; Momeni, Naghmeh; Yau, Shing-Tung; Nowak, Martin A.

2017-03-01

Evolution occurs in populations of reproducing individuals. The structure of a population can affect which traits evolve. Understanding evolutionary game dynamics in structured populations remains difficult. Mathematical results are known for special structures in which all individuals have the same number of neighbours. The general case, in which the number of neighbours can vary, has remained open. For arbitrary selection intensity, the problem is in a computational complexity class that suggests there is no efficient algorithm. Whether a simple solution for weak selection exists has remained unanswered. Here we provide a solution for weak selection that applies to any graph or network. Our method relies on calculating the coalescence times of random walks. We evaluate large numbers of diverse population structures for their propensity to favour cooperation. We study how small changes in population structure—graph surgery—affect evolutionary outcomes. We find that cooperation flourishes most in societies that are based on strong pairwise ties.

Some like it hot: citrus tristeza virus strains react differently to elevated temperature.

PubMed

Cowell, S J; Harper, S J; Dawson, W O

2016-12-01

Viruses often infect plants as a mixed population. The dynamics of viral populations dictate the success of the infection, yet there is little understanding of the factors that influence them. It is known that temperature can affect individual viruses; could it also affect a virus population? In order to study this, we observed citrus tristeza virus (CTV) populations in different hosts under winter and summer conditions (25 versus 36 °C). We found that only some CTV strains were affected by a higher summer temperature, which lead to a change in CTV population structure, and that this effect was host dependent.

Do differences in inducible resistance explain the population dynamics of birch and pine defoliators?

Treesearch

Seppo Neuvonen; Pekka Niemela

1991-01-01

Damage inflicted by insects may trigger responses in their host plants resulting either in immediate effects on herbivores either rapidly or in effects upon subsequent herbivore generations. Differentiation between rapid and delayed inducible resistance is essential since the two responses affect the population dynamics of herbivores in fundamentally different ways (...

Spatial variation in population growth rate and community structure affects local and regional dynamics.

PubMed

Trzcinski, M Kurtis; Walde, Sandra J; Taylor, Philip D

2008-11-01

1. Theory predicting that populations with high maximum rates of increase (r(max)) will be less stable, and that metapopulations with high average r(max) will be less synchronous, was tested using a small protist, Bodo, that inhabits pitcher plant leaves (Sarracenia purpurea L.). The effects of predators and resources on these relationships were also determined. 2. Abundance data collected for a total of 60 populations of Bodo, over a period of 3 months, at six sites in three bogs in eastern Canada, were used to test these predictions. Mosquitoes were manipulated in half the leaves partway through the season to increase the range of predation rates. 3. Dynamics differed greatly among leaves and sites, but most populations exhibited one or more episodes of rapid increase followed by a population crash. Estimates of r(max) obtained using a linear mixed-effects model, ranged from 1 x 5 to 2 x 7 per day. Resource levels (captured insect) and midge abundances affected r(max). 4. Higher r(max) was associated with greater temporal variability and lower synchrony as predicted. However, in contrast to expectations, populations with higher r(max) also had lower mean abundance and were more suppressed by predators. 5. This study demonstrates that the link between r(max) and temporal variability is key to understanding the dynamics of populations that spend little time near equilibrium, and to predicting and interpreting the effects of community structure on the dynamics of such populations.

Form of an evolutionary tradeoff affects eco-evolutionary dynamics in a predator-prey system.

PubMed

Kasada, Minoru; Yamamichi, Masato; Yoshida, Takehito

2014-11-11

Evolution on a time scale similar to ecological dynamics has been increasingly recognized for the last three decades. Selection mediated by ecological interactions can change heritable phenotypic variation (i.e., evolution), and evolution of traits, in turn, can affect ecological interactions. Hence, ecological and evolutionary dynamics can be tightly linked and important to predict future dynamics, but our understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics is still in its infancy and there is a significant gap between theoretical predictions and empirical tests. Empirical studies have demonstrated that the presence of genetic variation can dramatically change ecological dynamics, whereas theoretical studies predict that eco-evolutionary dynamics depend on the details of the genetic variation, such as the form of a tradeoff among genotypes, which can be more important than the presence or absence of the genetic variation. Using a predator-prey (rotifer-algal) experimental system in laboratory microcosms, we studied how different forms of a tradeoff between prey defense and growth affect eco-evolutionary dynamics. Our experimental results show for the first time to our knowledge that different forms of the tradeoff produce remarkably divergent eco-evolutionary dynamics, including near fixation, near extinction, and coexistence of algal genotypes, with quantitatively different population dynamics. A mathematical model, parameterized from completely independent experiments, explains the observed dynamics. The results suggest that knowing the details of heritable trait variation and covariation within a population is essential for understanding how evolution and ecology will interact and what form of eco-evolutionary dynamics will result.

Spatially cascading effect of perturbations in experimental meta-ecosystems.

PubMed

Harvey, Eric; Gounand, Isabelle; Ganesanandamoorthy, Pravin; Altermatt, Florian

2016-09-14

Ecosystems are linked to neighbouring ecosystems not only by dispersal, but also by the movement of subsidy. Such subsidy couplings between ecosystems have important landscape-scale implications because perturbations in one ecosystem may affect community structure and functioning in neighbouring ecosystems via increased/decreased subsidies. Here, we combine a general theoretical approach based on harvesting theory and a two-patch protist meta-ecosystem experiment to test the effect of regional perturbations on local community dynamics. We first characterized the relationship between the perturbation regime and local population demography on detritus production using a mathematical model. We then experimentally simulated a perturbation gradient affecting connected ecosystems simultaneously, thus altering cross-ecosystem subsidy exchanges. We demonstrate that the perturbation regime can interact with local population dynamics to trigger unexpected temporal variations in subsidy pulses from one ecosystem to another. High perturbation intensity initially led to the highest level of subsidy flows; however, the level of perturbation interacted with population dynamics to generate a crash in subsidy exchange over time. Both theoretical and experimental results show that a perturbation regime interacting with local community dynamics can induce a collapse in population levels for recipient ecosystems. These results call for integrative management of human-altered landscapes that takes into account regional dynamics of both species and resource flows. © 2016 The Author(s).

Genetic diversity affects the strength of population regulation in a marine fish.

PubMed

Johnson, D W; Freiwald, J; Bernardi, G

2016-03-01

Variation is an essential feature of biological populations, yet much of ecological theory treats individuals as though they are identical. This simplifying assumption is often justified by the perception that variation among individuals does not have significant effects on the dynamics of whole populations. However, this perception may be skewed by a historic focus on studying single populations. A true evaluation of the extent to which among-individual variation affects the dynamics of populations requires the study of multiple populations. In this study, we examined variation in the dynamics of populations of a live-bearing, marine fish (black surfperch; Embiotoca jacksoni). In collaboration with an organization of citizen scientists (Reef Check California), we were able to examine the dynamics of eight populations that were distributed throughout approximately 700 km of coastline, a distance that encompasses much of this species' range. We hypothesized that genetic variation within a local population would be related to the intensity of competition and to the strength of population regulation. To test this hypothesis, we examined whether genetic diversity (measured by the diversity of mitochondrial DNA haplotypes) was related to the strength of population regulation. Low-diversity populations experienced strong density dependence in population growth rates and population sizes were regulated much more tightly than they were in high-diversity populations. Mechanisms that contributed to this pattern include links between genetic diversity, habitat use, and spatial crowding. On average, low-diversity populations used less of the available habitat and exhibited greater spatial clustering (and more intense competition) for a given level of density (measured at the scale of the reef). Although the populations we studied also varied with respect to exogenous characteristics (habitat complexity, densities of predators, and interspecific competitors), none of these characteristics was significantly related to the strength of population regulation. In contrast, an endogenous characteristic of the population (genetic diversity) explained 77% of the variation in the strength of population regulation (95% CI: 27-94%). Our results suggest that the genetic and phenotypic composition of populations can play a major role in their dynamics.

Coherent Dynamics of Open Quantum System in the Presence of Majorana Fermions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assuncao, Maryzaura O.; Diniz, Ginetom S.; Vernek, Edson; Souza, Fabricio M.

In recent years the research on quantum coherent dynamics of open systems has attracted great attention due to its relevance for future implementation of quantum computers. In the present study we apply the Kadanoff-Baym formalism to simulate the population dynamics of a double-dot molecular system attached to both a superconductor and fermionic reservoirs. We solve both analytically and numerically a set of coupled differential equations that account for crossed Andreev reflection (CAR), intramolecular hopping and tunneling. We pay particular attention on how Majorana bound states can affect the population dynamics of the molecule. We investigate on how initial state configuration affects the dynamics. For instance, if one dot is occupied and the other one is empty, the dynamics is dictated by the inter dot tunneling. On the other hand, for initially empty dots, the CAR dominates. We also investigate how the source and drain currents evolve in time. This work was supporte by FAPEMIG, CNPq and CAPES.

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

2011-01-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

PubMed

Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

2011-08-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution.

Grandparents Affected by Parental Divorce: A Population at Risk?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Myers, Jane E.; Perrin, Novella

1993-01-01

When parents divorce, grandparents who have bonded with children may be affected, especially when denied visitation. Grandparenting roles and styles, family dynamics affecting grandparenthood, and other factors affecting the grandparent-grandchild bond are examined. Legal and ethical issues are discussed. Implications for counselors and human…

Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shayegh, Soheil

2017-11-01

Climate change impacts may drive affected populations to migrate. However, migration decisions in response to climate change could have broader effects on population dynamics in affected regions. Here, I model the effect of climate change on fertility rates, income inequality, and human capital accumulation in developing countries, focusing on the instrumental role of migration as a key adaptation mechanism. In particular, I investigate how climate-induced migration in developing countries will affect those who do not migrate. I find that holding all else constant, climate change raises the return on acquiring skills, because skilled individuals have greater migration opportunities than unskilled individuals. In response to this change in incentives, parents may choose to invest more in education and have fewer children. This may ultimately reduce local income inequality, partially offsetting some of the damages of climate change for low-income individuals who do not migrate.

Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

PubMed

Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

2010-07-27

While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

Psychology and Population: An Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fawcett, James T.

Psychology and Population is defined as the study of individual dispositions and behavior that affect the size, structure and dispersion of the population, and the way in which acts of individuals enter into the dynamics of population change. Even this definition was viewed as inadequate, ignoring, as it does, the reciprocal effect of population…

Phenological patterns of Spodoptera Guenée, 1852 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is more affected by ENSO than seasonal factors and host plant availability in a Brazilian Savanna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piovesan, Mônica; Specht, Alexandre; Carneiro, Eduardo; Paula-Moraes, Silvana Vieira; Casagrande, Mirna Martins

2018-03-01

The identification of factors responsible for the population dynamics is fundamental for pest management, since losses can reach 18% of annual production. Besides regular seasonal environmental factors and crop managements, additional supra-annual meteorological phenomena can also affect population dynamics, although its relevance has been rarely investigated. Among crop pests, Spodoptera stands out due to its worldwide distribution, high degree of polyphagy, thus causing damages in several crops in the world. Aiming to distinguish the relevance of different factors shaping population dynamics of Spodoptera in an ecosystem constituted of dry and rainy seasons, the current study used circular statistics to identify phenological patterns and test if its population fluctuation is driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect, seasonal meteorological parameters, and/or host plant availability. Samplings were done in an intercropping system, in the Brazilian Savanna, during the new moon cycles between July/2013 and June/2016. Species were recorded all year round, but demonstrated differently non-uniform distribution, being concentrated in different seasons of the year. Population fluctuations were mostly affected by the ENSO intensity, despite the contrasting seasonal meteorological variation or host plant availability in a 400-m radius. Studies involving the observation of supra-annual phenomena, although rare, reach similar conclusions in relation to Neotropical insect fauna. Therefore, it is paramount to have long-term sampling studies to obtain a more precise response of the pest populations towards the agroecosystem conditions.

Simultaneous effects of food limitation and inducible resistance on herbivore population dynamics.

PubMed

Abbott, Karen C; Morris, William F; Gross, Kevin

2008-02-01

Many herbivore populations fluctuate temporally, but the causes of those fluctuations remain unclear. Plant inducible resistance can theoretically cause herbivore population fluctuations, because herbivory may induce plant changes that reduce the survival or reproduction of later-feeding herbivores. Herbivory can also simply reduce the quantity of food available for later feeders and this, too, can cause population fluctuations. Inducible resistance and food limitation often occur simultaneously, yet whether they jointly facilitate or suppress herbivore fluctuations remains largely unexplored. We present models that suggest that food limitation and inducible resistance may have synergistic effects on herbivore population dynamics. The population-level response of the food plant to herbivory and the details of how inducible resistance affects herbivore performance both influence the resulting herbivore dynamics. Our results identify some biological properties of plant-herbivore systems that might determine whether or not cycles occur, and suggest that future empirical and theoretical population dynamics studies should account for the effects of both food limitation and inducible resistance.

How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

PubMed

Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

2016-02-01

Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

2017-06-01

Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

Human-caused mortality influences spatial population dynamics: pumas in landscapes with varying mortality risks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newby, Jesse R.; Mills, L. Scott; Ruth, Toni K.; Pletscher, Daniel H.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Quigley, Howard B.; Murphy, Kerry M.; DeSimone, Rich

2013-01-01

An understanding of how stressors affect dispersal attributes and the contribution of local populations to multi-population dynamics are of immediate value to basic and applied ecology. Puma (Puma concolor) populations are expected to be influenced by inter-population movements and susceptible to human-induced source–sink dynamics. Using long-term datasets we quantified the contribution of two puma populations to operationally define them as sources or sinks. The puma population in the Northern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (NGYE) was largely insulated from human-induced mortality by Yellowstone National Park. Pumas in the western Montana Garnet Mountain system were exposed to greater human-induced mortality, which changed over the study due to the closure of a 915 km2 area to hunting. The NGYE’s population growth depended on inter-population movements, as did its ability to act as a source to the larger region. The heavily hunted Garnet area was a sink with a declining population until the hunting closure, after which it became a source with positive intrinsic growth and a 16× increase in emigration. We also examined the spatial and temporal characteristics of individual dispersal attributes (emigration, dispersal distance, establishment success) of subadult pumas (N = 126). Human-caused mortality was found to negatively impact all three dispersal components. Our results demonstrate the influence of human-induced mortality on not only within population vital rates, but also inter-population vital rates, affecting the magnitude and mechanisms of local population’s contribution to the larger metapopulation.

Influences of hunting on the behavior of white-tailed deer: implications for conservation of the Florida panther

Treesearch

John C. Kilgo; Ronald F. Labisky; Duane E. Fritzen

1998-01-01

The effects of deer hunting by humans on deer population dynamics and behavior may indirectly affect the population dynamics and behavior of deer predators. The authors present data on the effects of hunting on the behavior of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) on the Osceola National Forest, a potential reintroduction site for the endangered Florida panther (...

Linking body mass and group dynamics in an obligate cooperative breeder.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Bateman, Andrew W; English, Sinead; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2014-11-01

Social and environmental factors influence key life-history processes and population dynamics by affecting fitness-related phenotypic traits such as body mass. The role of body mass is particularly pronounced in cooperative breeders due to variation in social status and consequent variation in access to resources. Investigating the mechanisms underlying variation in body mass and its demographic consequences can help elucidate how social and environmental factors affect the dynamics of cooperatively breeding populations. In this study, we present an analysis of the effect of individual variation in body mass on the temporal dynamics of group size and structure of a cooperatively breeding mongoose, the Kalahari meerkat, Suricata suricatta. First, we investigate how body mass interacts with social (dominance status and number of helpers) and environmental (rainfall and season) factors to influence key life-history processes (survival, growth, emigration and reproduction) in female meerkats. Next, using an individual-based population model, we show that the models explicitly including individual variation in body mass predict group dynamics better than those ignoring this morphological trait. Body mass influences group dynamics mainly through its effects on helper emigration and dominant reproduction. Rainfall has a trait-mediated, destabilizing effect on group dynamics, whereas the number of helpers has a direct and stabilizing effect. Counteracting effects of number of helpers on different demographic rates, despite generating temporal fluctuations, stabilizes group dynamics in the long term. Our study demonstrates that social and environmental factors interact to produce individual variation in body mass and accounting for this variation helps to explain group dynamics in this cooperatively breeding population. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

PubMed

Smith, Annabel L

2018-01-01

Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

Increased natural mortality at low abundance can generate an Allee effect in a marine fish.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-10-01

Negative density-dependent regulation of population dynamics promotes population growth at low abundance and is therefore vital for recovery following depletion. Inversely, any process that reduces the compensatory density-dependence of population growth can negatively affect recovery. Here, we show that increased adult mortality at low abundance can reverse compensatory population dynamics into its opposite-a demographic Allee effect. Northwest Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks collapsed dramatically in the early 1990s and have since shown little sign of recovery. Many experienced dramatic increases in natural mortality, ostensibly attributable in some populations to increased predation by seals. Our findings show that increased natural mortality of a magnitude observed for overfished cod stocks has been more than sufficient to fundamentally alter the dynamics of density-dependent population regulation. The demographic Allee effect generated by these changes can slow down or even impede the recovery of depleted populations even in the absence of fishing.

Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-05-01

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

Strong optical field ionisation of solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, C. R.; Ben Taher, A.; Brabec, T.

2017-11-01

Population transfer from the valence to conduction band in the presence of an intense laser field is explored theoretically in semiconductors and dielectrics. Experiments performed on dielectrics exposed to an intense laser field have divulged a population dynamics between valence and conduction band that differs from that observed in semiconductors. Our paper explores two aspects of ionisation in solids. (i) Contemporary ionisation theories do not take account of the coupling between the valence and conduction bands resulting in the absence the dynamic Stark shift. Our single-particle analysis identifies the absence of the dynamic Stark shift as a possible cause for the contrasting ionisation behaviours observed in dielectric and semiconductor materials. The dynamic Stark shift results in an increased bandgap as the laser intensity is increased. This suppresses ionisation to an extent where the main population dynamics results from virtual oscillations in the conduction band population. The dynamic Stark shift mainly affects larger bandgap materials which can be exposed to decidedly higher laser intensities. (ii) In the presence of laser dressed virtual population of the conduction band, elastic collisions potentially transmute virtual into real population resulting in ionisation. This process is explored in the context of the relaxation time approximation.

The Rise and Fall of a Yeast Community, An Environmental Investigation into the Dynamics of Population Growth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minnesota Environmental Sciences Foundation, Inc., Minneapolis.

In this unit students study populations by observing some of the activities that go on in one particular population. Specifically, yeast plants are examined and some of the effects which various environmental factors have on yeast plant populations are investigated. A population curve is developed showing how easily it is affected by the…

Linking extinction-colonization dynamics to genetic structure in a salamander metapopulation.

PubMed

Cosentino, Bradley J; Phillips, Christopher A; Schooley, Robert L; Lowe, Winsor H; Douglas, Marlis R

2012-04-22

Theory predicts that founder effects have a primary role in determining metapopulation genetic structure. However, ecological factors that affect extinction-colonization dynamics may also create spatial variation in the strength of genetic drift and migration. We tested the hypothesis that ecological factors underlying extinction-colonization dynamics influenced the genetic structure of a tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) metapopulation. We used empirical data on metapopulation dynamics to make a priori predictions about the effects of population age and ecological factors on genetic diversity and divergence among 41 populations. Metapopulation dynamics of A. tigrinum depended on wetland area, connectivity and presence of predatory fish. We found that newly colonized populations were more genetically differentiated than established populations, suggesting that founder effects influenced genetic structure. However, ecological drivers of metapopulation dynamics were more important than age in predicting genetic structure. Consistent with demographic predictions from metapopulation theory, genetic diversity and divergence depended on wetland area and connectivity. Divergence was greatest in small, isolated wetlands where genetic diversity was low. Our results show that ecological factors underlying metapopulation dynamics can be key determinants of spatial genetic structure, and that habitat area and isolation may mediate the contributions of drift and migration to divergence and evolution in local populations.

Mathematical modelling of vector-borne diseases and insecticide resistance evolution.

PubMed

Gabriel Kuniyoshi, Maria Laura; Pio Dos Santos, Fernando Luiz

2017-01-01

Vector-borne diseases are important public health issues and, consequently, in silico models that simulate them can be useful. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model simulates the population dynamics of an epidemic and can be easily adapted to vector-borne diseases, whereas the Hardy-Weinberg model simulates allele frequencies and can be used to study insecticide resistance evolution. The aim of the present study is to develop a coupled system that unifies both models, therefore enabling the analysis of the effects of vector population genetics on the population dynamics of an epidemic. Our model consists of an ordinary differential equation system. We considered the populations of susceptible, infected and recovered humans, as well as susceptible and infected vectors. Concerning these vectors, we considered a pair of alleles, with complete dominance interaction that determined the rate of mortality induced by insecticides. Thus, we were able to separate the vectors according to the genotype. We performed three numerical simulations of the model. In simulation one, both alleles conferred the same mortality rate values, therefore there was no resistant strain. In simulations two and three, the recessive and dominant alleles, respectively, conferred a lower mortality. Our numerical results show that the genetic composition of the vector population affects the dynamics of human diseases. We found that the absolute number of vectors and the proportion of infected vectors are smaller when there is no resistant strain, whilst the ratio of infected people is larger in the presence of insecticide-resistant vectors. The dynamics observed for infected humans in all simulations has a very similar shape to real epidemiological data. The population genetics of vectors can affect epidemiological dynamics, and the presence of insecticide-resistant strains can increase the number of infected people. Based on the present results, the model is a basis for development of other models and for investigating population dynamics.

Density Dependence and Growth Rate: Evolutionary Effects on Resistance Development to Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis).

PubMed

Martinez, Jeannette C; Caprio, Michael A; Friedenberg, Nicholas A

2018-02-09

It has long been recognized that pest population dynamics can affect the durability of a pesticide, but dose remains the primary component of insect resistance management (IRM). For transgenic pesticidal traits such as Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner (Bacillales: Bacillaceae)), dose (measured as the mortality of susceptibles caused by a toxin) is a relatively fixed characteristic and often falls below the standard definition of high dose. Hence, it is important to understand how pest population dynamics modify durability and what targets they present for IRM. We used a deterministic model of a generic arthropod pest to examine how timing and strength of density dependence interacted with population growth rate and Bt mortality to affect time to resistance. As in previous studies, durability typically reached a minimum at intermediate doses. However, high population growth rates could eliminate benefits of high dose. The timing of density dependence had a more subtle effect. If density dependence operated simultaneously with Bt mortality, durability was insensitive to its strengths. However, if density dependence was driven by postselection densities, decreasing its strength could increase durability. The strength of density dependence could affect durability of both single traits and pyramids, but its influence depended on the timing of density dependence and size of the refuge. Our findings suggest the utility of a broader definition of high dose, one that incorporates population-dynamic context. That maximum growth rates and timing and strength of interactions causing density dependent mortality can all affect durability, also highlights the need for ecologically integrated approaches to IRM research. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Infections and parasitic diseases of the gray wolf and their potential effects on wolf populations in North America.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brand, C.J.; Pybus, M.J.; Ballard, W.B.; Peterson, R.O.

1995-01-01

Numerous infections and parasitic diseases have been reported for the gray wolf, including more than 10 viral, bacterial, and mycotic disease and more than 70 species of helminths and ectoparasites. However, few studies have documented the role of diseases in population dynamics. Disease can affect wolf populations directly by causing mortality or indirectly by affecting physiological and homeostatic processes, thriftiness, reproduction, behavior, or social structure. In addition, wolves are hosts to diseases that can affect prey species, thus affecting wolf populations indirectly by reducing prey abundance or increasing vulnerability to predation. Diseases such as canine distemper and infectious canine hepatitis are enzootic in wolf populations, whereas rabies occurs in wolves primarily as a result of transmission from other species such as artic and red foxes. Contact between wolves and domestic pets and livestock may affect the composition of diseases in wolves and their effects on wolf populations. Dogs were suspected of introducing lice and canine parovirus to several wolf populations. THe potential for disease to affect wolf populations and other wild and domestic animals should be considered in wolf management plans, particularly in plans for reintroduction of wolves to area within their former range.

Public goods games in populations with fluctuating size.

PubMed

McAvoy, Alex; Fraiman, Nicolas; Hauert, Christoph; Wakeley, John; Nowak, Martin A

2018-05-01

Many mathematical frameworks of evolutionary game dynamics assume that the total population size is constant and that selection affects only the relative frequency of strategies. Here, we consider evolutionary game dynamics in an extended Wright-Fisher process with variable population size. In such a scenario, it is possible that the entire population becomes extinct. Survival of the population may depend on which strategy prevails in the game dynamics. Studying cooperative dilemmas, it is a natural feature of such a model that cooperators enable survival, while defectors drive extinction. Although defectors are favored for any mixed population, random drift could lead to their elimination and the resulting pure-cooperator population could survive. On the other hand, if the defectors remain, then the population will quickly go extinct because the frequency of cooperators steadily declines and defectors alone cannot survive. In a mutation-selection model, we find that (i) a steady supply of cooperators can enable long-term population survival, provided selection is sufficiently strong, and (ii) selection can increase the abundance of cooperators but reduce their relative frequency. Thus, evolutionary game dynamics in populations with variable size generate a multifaceted notion of what constitutes a trait's long-term success. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preceding crop affects soybean aphid abundance and predator-prey dynamics in soybean

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Crop rotations alter the soil environment and physiology of the subsequent crop in ways that may affect herbivore abundance. Soybean aphids are a consistent pest of soybean throughout North America, but little work has focused on how preceding crops may affect aphid populations. In a replicated expe...

Fundamental population-productivity relationships can be modified through density-dependent feedbacks of life-history evolution.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-12-01

The evolution of life histories over contemporary time scales will almost certainly affect population demography. One important pathway for such eco-evolutionary interactions is the density-dependent regulation of population dynamics. Here, we investigate how fisheries-induced evolution (FIE) might alter density-dependent population-productivity relationships. To this end, we simulate the eco-evolutionary dynamics of an Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) population under fishing, followed by a period of recovery in the absence of fishing. FIE is associated with increases in juvenile production, the ratio of juveniles to mature population biomass, and the ratio of the mature population biomass relative to the total population biomass. In contrast, net reproductive rate (R 0 ) and per capita population growth rate (r) decline concomitantly with evolution. Our findings suggest that FIE can substantially modify the fundamental population-productivity relationships that underlie density-dependent population regulation and that form the primary population-dynamical basis for fisheries stock-assessment projections. From a conservation and fisheries-rebuilding perspective, we find that FIE reduces R 0 and r, the two fundamental correlates of population recovery ability and inversely extinction probability.

Density dependence in group dynamics of a highly social mongoose, Suricata suricatta.

PubMed

Bateman, Andrew W; Ozgul, Arpat; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2012-05-01

1. For social species, the link between individual behaviour and population dynamics is mediated by group-level demography. 2. Populations of obligate cooperative breeders are structured into social groups, which may be subject to inverse density dependence (Allee effects) that result from a dependence on conspecific helpers, but evidence for population-wide Allee effects is rare. 3. We use field data from a long-term study of cooperative meerkats (Suricata suricatta; Schreber, 1776) - a species for which local Allee effects are not reflected in population-level dynamics - to empirically model interannual group dynamics. 4. Using phenomenological population models, modified to incorporate environmental conditions and potential Allee effects, we first investigate overall patterns of group dynamics and find support only for conventional density dependence that increases after years of low rainfall. 5. To explain the observed patterns, we examine specific demographic rates and assess their contributions to overall group dynamics. Although per-capita meerkat mortality is subject to a component Allee effect, it contributes relatively little to observed variation in group dynamics, and other (conventionally density dependent) demographic rates - especially emigration - govern group dynamics. 6. Our findings highlight the need to consider demographic processes and density dependence in subpopulations before drawing conclusions about how behaviour affects population processes in socially complex systems. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Population dynamics of pond zooplankton, I. Diaptomus pallidus Herrick

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.; Angino, E.E.

1973-01-01

The simultaneous and lag relationships between 27 environmental variables and seven population components of a perennial calanoid copepod were examined by simple and partial correlations and stepwise regression. The analyses consistently explained more than 70% of the variation of a population component. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) usually was highest in no lag or in 3-week or 4-week lag except for clutch size in which R was highest in 1-week lag. Population control, egg-bearing, and clutch size were affected primarily by environmental components categorized as weather; food apparently was relatively minor in affecting population control or reproduction. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk B.V. Publishers.

The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth.

PubMed

Ford, Kevin R; Ness, Joshua H; Bronstein, Judith L; Morris, William F

2015-10-01

The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism.

[The role of circular migration in urban dynamics: examples from Ecuador and India].

PubMed

Dupont, V; Dureau, F

1994-01-01

Using the examples of Ecuador and India, this article examines different forms of circular migration affecting the dynamics of urban populations, and considers their impact on how cities function. The authors look at the strategies of temporary migrants and commuters regarding how they fit into the geographic and occupational spaces available in cities, their residence characteristics, how they affect urban investment and infrastructure, and their contribution to the labor force.

Evolutionary genetics of maternal effects

PubMed Central

Wolf, Jason B.; Wade, Michael J.

2016-01-01

Maternal genetic effects (MGEs), where genes expressed by mothers affect the phenotype of their offspring, are important sources of phenotypic diversity in a myriad of organisms. We use a single‐locus model to examine how MGEs contribute patterns of heritable and nonheritable variation and influence evolutionary dynamics in randomly mating and inbreeding populations. We elucidate the influence of MGEs by examining the offspring genotype‐phenotype relationship, which determines how MGEs affect evolutionary dynamics in response to selection on offspring phenotypes. This approach reveals important results that are not apparent from classic quantitative genetic treatments of MGEs. We show that additive and dominance MGEs make different contributions to evolutionary dynamics and patterns of variation, which are differentially affected by inbreeding. Dominance MGEs make the offspring genotype‐phenotype relationship frequency dependent, resulting in the appearance of negative frequency‐dependent selection, while additive MGEs contribute a component of parent‐of‐origin dependent variation. Inbreeding amplifies the contribution of MGEs to the additive genetic variance and, therefore enhances their evolutionary response. Considering evolutionary dynamics of allele frequency change on an adaptive landscape, we show that this landscape differs from the mean fitness surface, and therefore, under some condition, fitness peaks can exist but not be “available” to the evolving population. PMID:26969266

Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird.

PubMed

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M

2010-04-01

Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the effect of changes in mean and variance of winter temperature on different vital rates across the life cycle. Subsequently, we quantify, using stochastic stage-structured models, how changes in the mean and variance of this environmental variable affect important characteristics of the future population dynamics, such as the time to extinction. Local mean winter temperature is predicted to strongly increase, and we show that this is likely to increase the population's persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that higher temperatures have on fecundity. Interannual variation in winter temperature is predicted to decrease, which is also likely to increase persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that lower temperature variability has on fecundity. Overall, a 0.1 degrees C change in mean temperature is predicted to alter median time to extinction by 1.5 times as many years as would a 0.1 degrees C change in the standard deviation in temperature, suggesting that the dynamics of oystercatchers are more sensitive to changes in the mean than in the interannual variability of this climatic variable. Moreover, as climate models predict larger changes in the mean than in the standard deviation of local winter temperature, the effects of future climatic variability on this population's time to extinction are expected to be overwhelmed by the effects of changes in climatic means. We discuss the mechanisms by which climatic variability can either increase or decrease population viability and how this might depend both on species' life histories and on the vital rates affected. This study illustrates that, for making reliable inferences about population consequences in species in which life history changes with age or stage, it is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on vital rates across the entire life cycle. Disturbingly, such data are unavailable for most species of conservation concern.

Variation in predator foraging behavior changes predator-prey spatio-temporal dynamics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

1. Foraging underlies the ability of all animals to acquire essential resources and, thus, provides a critical link to understanding population dynamics. A key issue is how variation in foraging behavior affects foraging efficiency and predator-prey interactions in spatially-heterogeneous environmen...

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Beverton-Holt discrete pest management models with pulsed chemical control and evolution of pesticide resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Juhua; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A.

2016-07-01

Pest resistance to pesticides is usually managed by switching between different types of pesticides. The optimal switching time, which depends on the dynamics of the pest population and on the evolution of the pesticide resistance, is critical. Here we address how the dynamic complexity of the pest population, the development of resistance and the spraying frequency of pulsed chemical control affect optimal switching strategies given different control aims. To do this, we developed novel discrete pest population growth models with both impulsive chemical control and the evolution of pesticide resistance. Strong and weak threshold conditions which guarantee the extinction of the pest population, based on the threshold values of the analytical formula for the optimal switching time, were derived. Further, we addressed switching strategies in the light of chosen economic injury levels. Moreover, the effects of the complex dynamical behaviour of the pest population on the pesticide switching times were also studied. The pesticide application period, the evolution of pesticide resistance and the dynamic complexity of the pest population may result in complex outbreak patterns, with consequent effects on the pesticide switching strategies.

Natural Selection in Large Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, Michael

2011-03-01

I will discuss theoretical and experimental approaches to the evolutionary dynamics and population genetics of natural selection in large populations. In these populations, many mutations are often present simultaneously, and because recombination is limited, selection cannot act on them all independently. Rather, it can only affect whole combinations of mutations linked together on the same chromosome. Methods common in theoretical population genetics have been of limited utility in analyzing this coupling between the fates of different mutations. In the past few years it has become increasingly clear that this is a crucial gap in our understanding, as sequence data has begun to show that selection appears to act pervasively on many linked sites in a wide range of populations, including viruses, microbes, Drosophila, and humans. I will describe approaches that combine analytical tools drawn from statistical physics and dynamical systems with traditional methods in theoretical population genetics to address this problem, and describe how experiments in budding yeast can help us directly observe these evolutionary dynamics.

Elevated nonlinearity as an indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress.

PubMed

Dakos, Vasilis; Glaser, Sarah M; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Sugihara, George

2017-03-01

Populations occasionally experience abrupt changes, such as local extinctions, strong declines in abundance or transitions from stable dynamics to strongly irregular fluctuations. Although most of these changes have important ecological and at times economic implications, they remain notoriously difficult to detect in advance. Here, we study changes in the stability of populations under stress across a variety of transitions. Using a Ricker-type model, we simulate shifts from stable point equilibrium dynamics to cyclic and irregular boom-bust oscillations as well as abrupt shifts between alternative attractors. Our aim is to infer the loss of population stability before such shifts based on changes in nonlinearity of population dynamics. We measure nonlinearity by comparing forecast performance between linear and nonlinear models fitted on reconstructed attractors directly from observed time series. We compare nonlinearity to other suggested leading indicators of instability (variance and autocorrelation). We find that nonlinearity and variance increase in a similar way prior to the shifts. By contrast, autocorrelation is strongly affected by oscillations. Finally, we test these theoretical patterns in datasets of fisheries populations. Our results suggest that elevated nonlinearity could be used as an additional indicator to infer changes in the dynamics of populations under stress. © 2017 The Author(s).

The Influence of Individual Variability on Zooplankton Population Dynamics under Different Environmental Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, R.; Liu, H.

2016-02-01

Understanding how biological components respond to environmental changes could be insightful to predict ecosystem trajectories under different climate scenarios. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems and changes in their dynamics could have major impact on ecosystem structure. We developed an individual-based model of a common coastal calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa to examine how environmental factors affect zooplankton population dynamics and explore the role of individual variability in sustaining population under various environmental conditions consisting of temperature, food concentration and salinity. Total abundance, egg production and proportion of survival were used to measure population success. Results suggested population benefits from high level of individual variability under extreme environmental conditions including unfavorable temperature, salinity, as well as low food concentration, and selection on fast-growers becomes stronger with increasing individual variability and increasing environmental stress. Multiple regression analysis showed that temperature, food concentration, salinity and individual variability have significant effects on survival of A. tonsa population. These results suggest that environmental factors have great influence on zooplankton population, and individual variability has important implications for population survivability under unfavorable conditions. Given that marine ecosystems are at risk from drastic environmental changes, understanding how individual variability sustains populations could increase our capability to predict population dynamics in a changing environment.

Save money the easy way with bio-control

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sweet potato whitefly is a key insect pests affecting cotton and many other agronomic and horticultural crops in the southwestern U.S. Prior research has shown that arthropod natural enemies, particularly predators, can have a significant impact on whitefly population dynamics and can regulate popul...

INDIVIDUAL EFFECTS OF ESTROGENS ON A MARINE FISH, CUNNER (TAUTOGOLABRUS ADSPERSUS), EXTRAPOLATED TO POPULATION LEVEL

EPA Science Inventory

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in the environment may alter the population dynamics of wildlife by affecting reproductive output. This study describes a matrix modeling approach to link laboratory studies on endocrine disruption with potential ecological effects. The exper...

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

The dynamics of genetic draft in rapidly adapting populations.

PubMed

Kosheleva, Katya; Desai, Michael M

2013-11-01

The accumulation of beneficial mutations on competing genetic backgrounds in rapidly adapting populations has a striking impact on evolutionary dynamics. This effect, known as clonal interference, causes erratic fluctuations in the frequencies of observed mutations, randomizes the fixation times of successful mutations, and leaves distinct signatures on patterns of genetic variation. Here, we show how this form of "genetic draft" affects the forward-time dynamics of site frequencies in rapidly adapting asexual populations. We calculate the probability that mutations at individual sites shift in frequency over a characteristic timescale, extending Gillespie's original model of draft to the case where many strongly selected beneficial mutations segregate simultaneously. We then derive the sojourn time of mutant alleles, the expected fixation time of successful mutants, and the site frequency spectrum of beneficial and neutral mutations. Finally, we show how this form of draft affects inferences in the McDonald-Kreitman test and how it relates to recent observations that some aspects of genetic diversity are described by the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent in the limit of very rapid adaptation.

Population dynamics of weeds in oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) circle weeding area affected by herbicide application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidik, S.; Purba, E.; Yakub, E. N.

2018-02-01

Weed problems in oil palm field were mainly overcomed by herbicide application. The application certain herbicides may lead to rapid population dynamic of certain species due to their different response to herbicides. Some species may less susceptible to certain herbicide whereas other species more susceptible. The objective of this study was to determine the population dynamic of weed species in circle weeding of oil palm in Serdang Bedagai, North Sumatra. Six treatments using glyphosate singly and mixture compared with manual weeding were evaluated for weed control. The treatments were arranged in a randomized block design with four replicates. Each treatment consisted of four circle weedings. The results showed that glyphosate 720 g a.i/ha + indaziflam 50 g a.i/hareduced seedbank and regrowth of weeds. Up to 12 weeks after application glyphosate 720 g a.i/ha + indaziflam 50 g a.i/ha is 29.46% total weeds dry weight compared to manual weeding. The effect of herbicide application on changes on the weed composition and weed seedbank are affected by the characteristic of herbicides and weed response to herbicide application.

Stochastic seasonality and nonlinear density-dependent factors regulate population size in an African rodent

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leirs, H.; Stenseth, N.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Verhagen, R.; Verheyen, W.

1997-01-01

Ecology has long been troubled by the controversy over how populations are regulated. Some ecologists focus on the role of environmental effects, whereas others argue that density-dependent feedback mechanisms are central. The relative importance of both processes is still hotly debated, but clear examples of both processes acting in the same population are rare. Keyfactor analysis (regression of population changes on possible causal factors) and time-series analysis are often used to investigate the presence of density dependence, but such approaches may be biased and provide no information on actual demographic rates. Here we report on both density-dependent and density-independent effects in a murid rodent pest species, the multimammate rat Mastomys natalensis (Smith, 1834), using statistical capture-recapture models. Both effects occur simultaneously, but we also demonstrate that they do not affect all demographic rates in the same way. We have incorporated the obtained estimates of demographic rates in a population dynamics model and show that the observed dynamics are affected by stabilizing nonlinear density-dependent components coupled with strong deterministic and stochastic seasonal components.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

PubMed

Bost, Charles A; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-27

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-01

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Unfair and Anomalous Evolutionary Dynamics from Fluctuating Payoffs.

PubMed

Stollmeier, Frank; Nagler, Jan

2018-02-02

Evolution occurs in populations of reproducing individuals. Reproduction depends on the payoff a strategy receives. The payoff depends on the environment that may change over time, on intrinsic uncertainties, and on other sources of randomness. These temporal variations in the payoffs can affect which traits evolve. Understanding evolutionary game dynamics that are affected by varying payoffs remains difficult. Here we study the impact of arbitrary amplitudes and covariances of temporally varying payoffs on the dynamics. The evolutionary dynamics may be "unfair," meaning that, on average, two coexisting strategies may persistently receive different payoffs. This mechanism can induce an anomalous coexistence of cooperators and defectors in the prisoner's dilemma, and an unexpected selection reversal in the hawk-dove game.

Unfair and Anomalous Evolutionary Dynamics from Fluctuating Payoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stollmeier, Frank; Nagler, Jan

2018-02-01

Evolution occurs in populations of reproducing individuals. Reproduction depends on the payoff a strategy receives. The payoff depends on the environment that may change over time, on intrinsic uncertainties, and on other sources of randomness. These temporal variations in the payoffs can affect which traits evolve. Understanding evolutionary game dynamics that are affected by varying payoffs remains difficult. Here we study the impact of arbitrary amplitudes and covariances of temporally varying payoffs on the dynamics. The evolutionary dynamics may be "unfair," meaning that, on average, two coexisting strategies may persistently receive different payoffs. This mechanism can induce an anomalous coexistence of cooperators and defectors in the prisoner's dilemma, and an unexpected selection reversal in the hawk-dove game.

Dynamic denominators: the impact of seasonally varying population numbers on disease incidence estimates.

PubMed

Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth; Alegana, Victor A; Sorichetta, Alessandro; Linard, Catherine; Lourenço, Christoper; Ruktanonchai, Nick W; Graupe, Bonita; Bird, Tomas J; Pezzulo, Carla; Wesolowski, Amy; Tatem, Andrew J

2016-01-01

Reliable health metrics are crucial for accurately assessing disease burden and planning interventions. Many health indicators are measured through passive surveillance systems and are reliant on accurate estimates of denominators to transform case counts into incidence measures. These denominator estimates generally come from national censuses and use large area growth rates to estimate annual changes. Typically, they do not account for any seasonal fluctuations and thus assume a static denominator population. Many recent studies have highlighted the dynamic nature of human populations through quantitative analyses of mobile phone call data records and a range of other sources, emphasizing seasonal changes. In this study, we use mobile phone data to capture patterns of short-term human population movement and to map dynamism in population densities. We show how mobile phone data can be used to measure seasonal changes in health district population numbers, which are used as denominators for calculating district-level disease incidence. Using the example of malaria case reporting in Namibia we use 3.5 years of phone data to investigate the spatial and temporal effects of fluctuations in denominators caused by seasonal mobility on malaria incidence estimates. We show that even in a sparsely populated country with large distances between population centers, such as Namibia, populations are highly dynamic throughout the year. We highlight how seasonal mobility affects malaria incidence estimates, leading to differences of up to 30 % compared to estimates created using static population maps. These differences exhibit clear spatial patterns, with likely overestimation of incidence in the high-prevalence zones in the north of Namibia and underestimation in lower-risk areas when compared to using static populations. The results here highlight how health metrics that rely on static estimates of denominators from censuses may differ substantially once mobility and seasonal variations are taken into account. With respect to the setting of malaria in Namibia, the results indicate that Namibia may actually be closer to malaria elimination than previously thought. More broadly, the results highlight how dynamic populations are. In addition to affecting incidence estimates, these changes in population density will also have an impact on allocation of medical resources. Awareness of seasonal movements has the potential to improve the impact of interventions, such as vaccination campaigns or distributions of commodities like bed nets.

The integration of climate change, spatial dynamics, and habitat fragmentation: A conceptual overview.

PubMed

Holyoak, Marcel; Heath, Sacha K

2016-01-01

A growing number of studies have looked at how climate change alters the effects of habitat fragmentation and degradation on both single and multiple species; some raise concern that biodiversity loss and its effects will be exacerbated. The published literature on spatial dynamics (such as dispersal and metapopulation dynamics), habitat fragmentation and climate change requires synthesis and a conceptual framework to simplify thinking. We propose a framework that integrates how climate change affects spatial population dynamics and the effects of habitat fragmentation in terms of: (i) habitat quality, quantity and distribution; (ii) habitat connectivity; and (iii) the dynamics of habitat itself. We use the framework to categorize existing autecological studies and investigate how each is affected by anthropogenic climate change. It is clear that a changing climate produces changes in the geographic distribution of climatic conditions, and the amount and quality of habitat. The most thorough published studies show how such changes impact metapopulation persistence, source-sink dynamics, changes in species' geographic range and community composition. Climate-related changes in movement behavior and quantity, quality and distribution of habitat have also produced empirical changes in habitat connectivity for some species. An underexplored area is how habitat dynamics that are driven by climatic processes will affect species that live in dynamic habitats. We end our discussion by suggesting ways to improve current attempts to integrate climate change, spatial population dynamics and habitat fragmentation effects, and suggest distinct areas of study that might provide opportunities for more fully integrative work. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

77 FR 32081 - Marine Mammals; File No. 17236

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-31

... Robert A. Garrott, Ecology Department, Montana State University, 310 Lewis Hall, Bozeman, MT, 59717, has... evaluate how environmental variability and individual heterogeneity affects the population dynamics of... population in the Erebus Bay, McMurdo Sound, Ross Sea and White Island areas of Antarctica. Up to 425 adults...

A generalized population dynamics model for reproductive interference with absolute density dependence.

PubMed

Kyogoku, Daisuke; Sota, Teiji

2017-05-17

Interspecific mating interactions, or reproductive interference, can affect population dynamics, species distribution and abundance. Previous population dynamics models have assumed that the impact of frequency-dependent reproductive interference depends on the relative abundances of species. However, this assumption could be an oversimplification inappropriate for making quantitative predictions. Therefore, a more general model to forecast population dynamics in the presence of reproductive interference is required. Here we developed a population dynamics model to describe the absolute density dependence of reproductive interference, which appears likely when encounter rate between individuals is important. Our model (i) can produce diverse shapes of isoclines depending on parameter values and (ii) predicts weaker reproductive interference when absolute density is low. These novel characteristics can create conditions where coexistence is stable and independent from the initial conditions. We assessed the utility of our model in an empirical study using an experimental pair of seed beetle species, Callosobruchus maculatus and Callosobruchus chinensis. Reproductive interference became stronger with increasing total beetle density even when the frequencies of the two species were kept constant. Our model described the effects of absolute density and showed a better fit to the empirical data than the existing model overall.

Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum.

PubMed

Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

2015-07-07

The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe.

Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

2015-01-01

The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000–19,000 y ago (27–19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30–13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880

The dynamics of health in wild field vole populations: a haematological perspective

PubMed Central

Beldomenico, Pablo M.; Telfer, Sandra; Gebert, Stephanie; Lukomski, Lukasz; Bennett, Malcolm; Begon, Michael

2010-01-01

Summary Pathogens have been proposed as potentially important drivers of population dynamics, but while a few studies have investigated the impact of specific pathogens, the wealth of information provided by general indices of health has hardly been exploited. By evaluating haematological parameters in wild populations, our knowledge of the dynamics of health and infection may be better understood. Here, haematological dynamics in natural populations of field voles are investigated to determine environmental and host factors associated with indicators of inflammatory response (counts of monocytes and neutrophils) and of condition: measures of immunological investment (lymphocyte counts) and aerobic capacity (red blood cell counts). Individuals from three field vole populations were sampled monthly for 2 years. Comparisons with individuals kept under controlled conditions facilitated interpretation of field data. Mixed effects models were developed for each cell type to evaluate separately the effects of various factors on post-juvenile voles and mature breeding females. There were three well-characterized ‘physiological’ seasons. The immunological investment appeared lowest in winter (lowest lymphocyte counts), but red blood cells were at their highest levels and indices of inflammatory response at their lowest. Spring was characterized by a fall in red blood cell counts and peaks in indicators of inflammatory response. During the course of summer—autumn, red blood cell counts recovered, the immunological investment increased and the indicators of inflammatory response decreased. Poor body condition appeared to affect the inflammatory response (lower neutrophil and monocyte peaks) and the immunological investment (lower lymphocyte counts), providing evidence that the capacity to fight infection is dependent upon host condition. Breeding early in the year was most likely in females in better condition (high lymphocyte and red blood cell counts). All the haematological parameters were affected adversely by high population densities. PMID:18564292

Does intrinsic light heterogeneity in Ricinus communis L. monospecific thickets drive species' population dynamics?

PubMed

Goyal, Neha; Shah, Kanhaiya; Sharma, Gyan Prakash

2018-06-19

Ricinus communis L. colonizes heterogeneous urban landscapes as monospecific thickets. The ecological understanding on colonization success of R. communis population due to variable light availability is lacking. Therefore, to understand the effect of intrinsic light heterogeneity on species' population dynamics, R. communis populations exposed to variable light availability (low, intermediate, and high) were examined for performance strategies through estimation of key vegetative, eco-physiological, biochemical, and reproductive traits. Considerable variability existed in studied plant traits in response to available light. Individuals inhabiting high-light conditions exhibited high eco-physiological efficiency and reproductive performance that potentially confers population boom. Individuals exposed to low light showed poor performance in terms of eco-physiology and reproduction, which attribute to bust. However, individuals in intermediate light were observed to be indeterminate to light availability, potentially undergoing trait modulations with uncertainty of available light. Heterogeneous light availability potentially drives the boom and bust cycles in R. communis monospecific thickets. Such boom and bust cycles subsequently affect species' dominance, persistence, collapse, and/or resurgence as an aggressive colonizer in contrasting urban environments. The study fosters extensive monitoring of R. communis thickets to probe underlying mechanism(s) affecting expansions and/or collapses of colonizing populations.

Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics.

PubMed

Mantilla-Beniers, N B; Bjørnstad, O N; Grenfell, B T; Rohani, P

2010-05-06

Seasonal changes in the environment are known to be important drivers of population dynamics, giving rise to sustained population cycles. However, it is often difficult to measure the strength and shape of seasonal forces affecting populations. In recent years, statistical time-series methods have been applied to the incidence records of childhood infectious diseases in an attempt to estimate seasonal variation in transmission rates, as driven by the pattern of school terms. In turn, school-term forcing was used to show how susceptible influx rates affect the interepidemic period. In this paper, we document the response of measles dynamics to distinct shifts in the parameter regime using previously unexplored records of measles mortality from the early decades of the twentieth century. We describe temporal patterns of measles epidemics using spectral analysis techniques, and point out a marked decrease in birth rates over time. Changes in host demography alone do not, however, suffice to explain epidemiological transitions. By fitting the time-series susceptible-infected-recovered model to measles mortality data, we obtain estimates of seasonal transmission in different eras, and find that seasonality increased over time. This analysis supports theoretical work linking complex population dynamics and the balance between stochastic and deterministic forces as determined by the strength of seasonality.

Conspecific and not performance-based attraction on immigrants drives colony growth in a waterbird.

PubMed

Tenan, Simone; Fasola, Mauro; Volponi, Stefano; Tavecchia, Giacomo

2017-09-01

Local recruitment and immigration play an important part in the dynamics and growth of animal populations. However, their estimation and incorporation into open population models is, in most cases, problematic. We studied factors affecting the growth of a recently established colony of Eurasian spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia) and assessed the contribution of local recruits, i.e. birds born in the colony, and immigrants, i.e. birds of unknown origin, to colony growth. We applied an integrated population model that accounts for uncertainty in breeding state assignment and merges population surveys, local fecundity and individual longitudinal data of breeding and non-breeding birds, to estimate demographic rates and the relative role of recruitment and immigration in driving the local dynamics. We also used this analytical framework to assess the degree of support for the 'performance-based' and 'conspecific attraction' hypotheses as possible mechanisms of colony growth. Among the demographic rates, only immigration was positively and significantly correlated with population growth rate. In addition, the number of immigrants settling in the colony was positively correlated with colony size in the previous and current year, but was not correlated with fecundity of the previous year. Our results suggest that the variation in immigration affected colony dynamics and that conspecific attraction likely triggered the relevant role of immigration in the growth of a recently formed waterbird colony, supporting the need of including immigration in population analysis. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Population dynamics and the economics of invasive species management: the greenhouse whitefly in California-grown strawberries.

PubMed

McKee, Gregory J; Goodhue, Rachael E; Zalom, Frank G; Carter, Colin A; Chalfant, James A

2009-01-01

In agriculture, relatively few efficacious control measures may be available for an invasive pest. In the case of a new insect pest, insecticide use decisions are affected by regulations associated with its registration, insect population dynamics, and seasonal market price cycles. We assess the costs and benefits of environmental regulations designed to regulate insecticide applications on an invasive species. We construct a bioeconomic model, based on detailed scientific data, of management decisions for a specific invasion: greenhouse whiteflies in California-grown strawberries. The empirical model integrates whitefly population dynamics, the effect of whitefly feeding on strawberry yields, and weekly strawberry price. We use the model to assess the optimality of alternative treatment programs on a simulated greenhouse whitefly population. Our results show that regulations may lead growers to "under-spray" when placed in an economic context, and provide some general lessons about the design of optimal invasive species control policies.

Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

2016-02-01

The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions.

The impact of natural transformation on adaptation in spatially structured bacterial populations.

PubMed

Moradigaravand, Danesh; Engelstädter, Jan

2014-06-20

Recent studies have demonstrated that natural transformation and the formation of highly structured populations in bacteria are interconnected. In spite of growing evidence about this connection, little is known about the dynamics of natural transformation in spatially structured bacterial populations. In this work, we model the interdependency between the dynamics of the bacterial gene pool and those of environmental DNA in space to dissect the effect of transformation on adaptation. Our model reveals that even with only a single locus under consideration, transformation with a free DNA fragment pool results in complex adaptation dynamics that do not emerge in previous models focusing only on the gene shuffling effect of transformation at multiple loci. We demonstrate how spatial restriction on population growth and DNA diffusion in the environment affect the impact of transformation on adaptation. We found that in structured bacterial populations intermediate DNA diffusion rates predominantly cause transformation to impede adaptation by spreading deleterious alleles in the population. Overall, our model highlights distinctive evolutionary consequences of bacterial transformation in spatially restricted compared to planktonic bacterial populations.

Predation and bark beetle dynamics

Treesearch

John D. Reeve

1997-01-01

Bark beetle populations may undergo dramatic fluctuations and are often important pests in coniferous forests.Their dynamics are thought to be primarily driven by factors affecting the resistance of the host tree to attack, i.e., bottom-up forces, while natural enemies are usually assigned a minor role in these systems.I present behavioral experiments that suggest that...

The western spruce budworm model: structure and content.

Treesearch

K.A. Sheehan; W.P. Kemp; J.J. Colbert; N.L. Crookston

1989-01-01

The Budworm Model predicts the amounts of foliage destroyed annually by the western spruce budworm, Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman, in a forest stand. The model may be used independently, or it may be linked to the Stand Prognosis Model to simulate the dynamics of forest stands. Many processes that affect budworm population dynamics are...

Multi-event capture–recapture modeling of host–pathogen dynamics among European rabbit populations exposed to myxoma and Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Viruses: common and heterogeneous patterns

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Host–pathogen epidemiological processes are often unclear due both to their complexity and over-simplistic approaches used to quantify them. We applied a multi-event capture–recapture procedure on two years of data from three rabbit populations to test hypotheses about the effects on survival of, and the dynamics of host immunity to, both myxoma virus and Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus (MV and RHDV). Although the populations shared the same climatic and management conditions, MV and RHDV dynamics varied greatly among them; MV and RHDV seroprevalences were positively related to density in one population, but RHDV seroprevalence was negatively related to density in another. In addition, (i) juvenile survival was most often negatively related to seropositivity, (ii) RHDV seropositives never had considerably higher survival, and (iii) seroconversion to seropositivity was more likely than the reverse. We suggest seropositivity affects survival depending on trade-offs among antibody protection, immunosuppression and virus lethality. Negative effects of seropositivity might be greater on juveniles due to their immature immune system. Also, while RHDV directly affects survival through the hemorrhagic syndrome, MV lack of direct lethal effects means that interactions influencing survival are likely to be more complex. Multi-event modeling allowed us to quantify patterns of host–pathogen dynamics otherwise difficult to discern. Such an approach offers a promising tool to shed light on causative mechanisms. PMID:24708296

Comparison of reintroduction and enhancement effects on metapopulation viability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halsey, Samniqueka J; Bell, Timothy J.; McEachern, A. Kathryn; Pavlovic, Noel B.

2015-01-01

Metapopulation viability depends upon a balance of extinction and colonization of local habitats by a species. Mechanisms that can affect this balance include physical characteristics related to natural processes (e.g. succession) as well as anthropogenic actions. Plant restorations can help to produce favorable metapopulation dynamics and consequently increase viability; however, to date no studies confirm this is true. Population viability analysis (PVA) allows for the use of empirical data to generate theoretical future projections in the form of median time to extinction and probability of extinction. In turn, PVAs can inform and aid the development of conservation, recovery, and management plans. Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri) is a dune endemic that exhibited metapopulation dynamics. We projected viability of three natural and two restored populations with demographic data spanning 15–23 years to determine the degree the addition of reintroduced population affects metapopulation viability. The models were validated by comparing observed and projected abundances and adjusting parameters associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity to improve model performance. Our chosen model correctly predicted yearly population abundance for 60% of the population-years. Using that model, 50-year projections showed that the addition of reintroductions increases metapopulation viability. The reintroduction that simulated population performance in early-successional habitats had the maximum benefit. In situ enhancements of existing populations proved to be equally effective. This study shows that restorations can facilitate and improve metapopulation viability of species dependent on metapopulation dynamics for survival with long-term persistence of C. pitcheri in Indiana likely to depend on continued active management.

Individual heterogeneity in life histories and eco-evolutionary dynamics

PubMed Central

Vindenes, Yngvild; Langangen, Øystein

2015-01-01

Individual heterogeneity in life history shapes eco-evolutionary processes, and unobserved heterogeneity can affect demographic outputs characterising life history and population dynamical properties. Demographic frameworks like matrix models or integral projection models represent powerful approaches to disentangle mechanisms linking individual life histories and population-level processes. Recent developments have provided important steps towards their application to study eco-evolutionary dynamics, but so far individual heterogeneity has largely been ignored. Here, we present a general demographic framework that incorporates individual heterogeneity in a flexible way, by separating static and dynamic traits (discrete or continuous). First, we apply the framework to derive the consequences of ignoring heterogeneity for a range of widely used demographic outputs. A general conclusion is that besides the long-term growth rate lambda, all parameters can be affected. Second, we discuss how the framework can help advance current demographic models of eco-evolutionary dynamics, by incorporating individual heterogeneity. For both applications numerical examples are provided, including an empirical example for pike. For instance, we demonstrate that predicted demographic responses to climate warming can be reversed by increased heritability. We discuss how applications of this demographic framework incorporating individual heterogeneity can help answer key biological questions that require a detailed understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics. PMID:25807980

Population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia butzii in cloud forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana

2016-02-01

Epiphytes are a major component of tropical montane cloud forests. Over-exploitation and forest loss and degradation affect remnant populations. In this study, we analysed the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia butzii over a 2-y period in a tropical montane cloud forest fragment in southern Mexico. Matrix analysis revealed that the T. butzii population is likely to be stable at the study site. On average the λ value did not differ significantly from unity: λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.978 (0.936-1.001). λ was highly influenced by stasis, to a lesser extent by growth and only slightly by fecundity. Overall, adult plant stasis and phalanx growth habit played a fundamental role in population maintenance. T. butzii tolerance to xeric conditions may contribute to population stability in the studied region.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

2013-01-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

PubMed

Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

2013-10-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Pumas affect elk dynamics in absence of other large carnivores

Treesearch

Chadwick P. Lehman; Christopher T. Rota; Jarod D. Raithel; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2017-01-01

We investigated survival, reproduction, and population growth (λ) for a declining elk (Cervus canadensis nelsoni) population in South Dakota, USA, 2011-2015. We obtained survival data from 125 calves and 34 yearlings. We determined survival and pregnancy rates for 42 adults (2-8 years old) and 39 old adults (≥8 years old). We combined population vital rates into a...

Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations.

PubMed

Hirunsalee, A; Barker, K R; Beute, M K

1995-06-01

A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduction, and root-damage potentials on susceptible tobacco were similar for Ma1 and Ma2. In the mixed (1:1) population, Ma1 was dominant on peanut and Ma2 was dominant on both tobacco cultivars. Crop rotation affected the population dynamics of different nematode races. For years 2 and 3, the low numbers of Ma1 and Ma2 from a previous-year poor host increased rapidly on suitable hosts. Ma1 had greater reproduction factors ([RF] = population density at harvest/population density at preplandng) than did Ma2 and Ma1 + Ma2 in second-year peanut plots following first-year resistant tobacco, and in third-year peanut plots following second-year tobacco. In mixed infestations, Ma1 predominated over Ma2 in previous-year peanut plots, whereas Ma2 predominated over Ma1 in previous-year tobacco plots. Moderate damage on resistant tobacco was induced by Ma1 in the second year. In the third year, moderate damage on peanut was associated with 'Ma2' from previous-year peanut plots. The resistant tobacco supported sufficient reproduction of Ma1 over 2 years to effect moderate damage and yield suppression to peanut in year 3.

Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations

PubMed Central

Hirunsalee, Anan; Barker, K. R.; Beute, M. K.

1995-01-01

A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduction, and root-damage potentials on susceptible tobacco were similar for Ma1 and Ma2. In the mixed (1:1) population, Ma1 was dominant on peanut and Ma2 was dominant on both tobacco cultivars. Crop rotation affected the population dynamics of different nematode races. For years 2 and 3, the low numbers of Ma1 and Ma2 from a previous-year poor host increased rapidly on suitable hosts. Ma1 had greater reproduction factors ([RF] = population density at harvest/population density at preplandng) than did Ma2 and Ma1 + Ma2 in second-year peanut plots following first-year resistant tobacco, and in third-year peanut plots following second-year tobacco. In mixed infestations, Ma1 predominated over Ma2 in previous-year peanut plots, whereas Ma2 predominated over Ma1 in previous-year tobacco plots. Moderate damage on resistant tobacco was induced by Ma1 in the second year. In the third year, moderate damage on peanut was associated with 'Ma2' from previous-year peanut plots. The resistant tobacco supported sufficient reproduction of Ma1 over 2 years to effect moderate damage and yield suppression to peanut in year 3. PMID:19277278

Is brood parasitism related to host nestling diet and nutrition?

Treesearch

Zachary S. Ladin; Vincent D' Amico; Deb P. Jaisi; W. Gregory Shriver

2015-01-01

Food and nutrient limitation can have negative effects on survival, fecundity, and lifetime fitness of individuals, which can ultimately limit populations. Changes in trophic dynamics and diet patterns, affected by anthropogenic environmental and landscape change, are poorly understood yet may play an important role in population regulation. We determined diets of Wood...

Recruitment dynamics in complex life cycles. [of organisms living in marine rocky zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roughgarden, Jonathan; Possingham, Hugh; Gaines, Steven

1988-01-01

Factors affecting marine population fluctuations are discussed with particular attention given to a common barnacle species of the Pacific coast of North America. It is shown how models combining larval circulation with adult interactions can potentially forecast population fluctuations. These findings demonstrate how processes in different ecological habitats are coupled.

Cambodian Inclusive Education for Vulnerable Populations: Toward an Ecological Perspective Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hackett, Jacob D.; Hudson, Roxanne F.; West, Elizabeth A.; Brown, Sharan E.

2016-01-01

Cambodia is a dynamic country in transition and its population is committed to improve an economic, social, and educational system (Chandler, 2008). An imperial legacy and traumatic history involving a genocide specifically targeted at Cambodian intellectual elite continue to affect Cambodian schools with the most impact being felt by vulnerable…

A theoretical analysis of the Allee effect in wind-pollinated cordgrass plant invasions.

PubMed

Murphy, James T; Johnson, Mark P

2015-12-01

A new individual-based model is presented for investigating an important group of invasive plant species, from the genus Spartina, that threaten biodiversity in coastal and intertidal habitats around the world. The role of pollen limitation in influencing the early development of an invasion is explored in order to gain a greater understanding of the mechanistic basis for an apparent Allee effect (causal relationship between population size/density and mean individual fitness) observed in populations of invasive Spartina species. The model is used to explore how various factors such as atmospheric stability, wind direction/speed, pollen characteristics and spatial structure of the population affect the overall invasion dynamics and reproductive success. Comparisons were also made between invasive species of Spartina (S. alterniflora, S. anglica) and a non-invasive species (S. foliosa), showing a reduced Allee effect was associated with invasion success. Furthermore, the conclusions drawn here may give insights into some of the fundamental processes affecting the growth and population dynamics of other invasive wind-pollinated plants. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Niels M.; Ims, Rolf A.; Høye, Toke T.; Gilg, Olivier; Hansen, Lars H.; Hansen, Jannik; Lund, Magnus; Fuglei, Eva; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Sittler, Benoit

2012-01-01

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988–2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state. PMID:22977153

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles.

PubMed

Schmidt, Niels M; Ims, Rolf A; Høye, Toke T; Gilg, Olivier; Hansen, Lars H; Hansen, Jannik; Lund, Magnus; Fuglei, Eva; Forchhammer, Mads C; Sittler, Benoit

2012-11-07

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988-2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state.

Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.

PubMed

Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri

2011-01-01

1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for different populations using a common methodological framework. Our approach was limited to single populations and have neglected population settlement in new favourable habitats or changes in inter-specific relations as a potential response to future climate change. Predictions may be enhanced by merging demographic population models and climatic envelope models. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 British Ecological Society.

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Spectral analysis of a two-species competition model: Determining the effects of extreme conditions on the color of noise generated from simulated time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golinski, M. R.

2006-07-01

Ecologists have observed that environmental noise affects population variance in the logistic equation for one-species growth. Interactions between deterministic and stochastic dynamics in a one-dimensional system result in increased variance in species population density over time. Since natural populations do not live in isolation, the present paper simulates a discrete-time two-species competition model with environmental noise to determine the type of colored population noise generated by extreme conditions in the long-term population dynamics of competing populations. Discrete Fourier analysis is applied to the simulation results and the calculated Hurst exponent ( H) is used to determine how the color of population noise for the two species corresponds to extreme conditions in population dynamics. To interpret the biological meaning of the color of noise generated by the two-species model, the paper determines the color of noise generated by three reference models: (1) A two-dimensional discrete-time white noise model (0⩽ H<1/2); (2) A two-dimensional fractional Brownian motion model (H=1/2); and (3) A two-dimensional discrete-time model with noise for unbounded growth of two uncoupled species (1/2< H⩽1).

Evolution of the stellar mass function in multiple-population globular clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vesperini, Enrico; Hong, Jongsuk; Webb, Jeremy J.; D'Antona, Franca; D'Ercole, Annibale

2018-05-01

We present the results of a survey of N-body simulations aimed at studying the effects of the long-term dynamical evolution on the stellar mass function (MF) of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters. Our simulations show that if first-(1G) and second-generation (2G) stars have the same initial MF (IMF), the global MFs of the two populations are affected similarly by dynamical evolution and no significant differences between the 1G and 2G MFs arise during the cluster's evolution. If the two populations have different IMFs, dynamical effects do not completely erase memory of the initial differences. Should observations find differences between the global 1G and 2G MFs, these would reveal the fingerprints of differences in their IMFs. Irrespective of whether the 1G and 2G populations have the same global IMF or not, dynamical effects can produce differences between the local (measured at various distances from the cluster centre) 1G and 2G MFs; these differences are a manifestation of the process of mass segregation in populations with different initial structural properties. In dynamically old and spatially mixed clusters, however, differences between the local 1G and 2G MFs can reveal differences between the 1G and 2G global MFs. In general, for clusters with any dynamical age, large differences between the local 1G and 2G MFs are more likely to be associated with differences in the global MF. Our study also reveals a dependence of the spatial mixing rate on the stellar mass, another dynamical consequence of the multiscale nature of multiple-population clusters.

Population dynamics of earthworms in relation to soil physico-chemical parameters in agroforestry systems of Mizoram, India.

PubMed

Lalthanzara, H; Ramanujam, S N; Jha, L K

2011-09-01

Earthworm population dynamics was studied in two agroforestry systems in the tropical hilly terrain of Mizoram, north-east India, over a period of 24 months, from July 2002 to June 2004. Two sites of agroforestry situated at Sakawrtuichhun (SKT) and Pachhunga University College (PUC) campus, Aizawl, having pineapple as the main crop, were selected for detail studies on population dynamics. Five of the total twelve species of earthworm reported from the state were recorded in the study sites. The density of earthworm ranged from 6 to 243 ind.m(-2) and biomass from 3.2 - 677.64 g.m(-2) in SKT. Comparatively the density and biomass in PUC, which is at relatively higher altitude were lowerwith a range of 0 to 176 ind.m(-2) and biomass from 0 - 391.36 g.m(-2) respectively. Population dynamics of earthworm was significantly correlated with rainfall and physical characters of the soil. Earthworm biomass was significantly affected by rainfall and moisture content of the soil. The influence of chemical factors was relatively less.

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure.

PubMed

Watts, Alexander G; Schlichting, Peter E; Billerman, Shawn M; Jesmer, Brett R; Micheletti, Steven; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Funk, W Chris; Hapeman, Paul; Muths, Erin; Murphy, Melanie A

2015-01-01

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations.

Effects of paternal phenotype and environmental variability on age and size at maturity in a male dimorphic mite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smallegange, Isabel M.

2011-04-01

Investigating how the environment affects age and size at maturity of individuals is crucial to understanding how changes in the environment affect population dynamics through the biology of a species. Paternal phenotype, maternal, and offspring environment may crucially influence these traits, but to my knowledge, their combined effects have not yet been tested. Here, I found that in bulb mites ( Rhizoglyphus robini), maternal nutrition, offspring nutrition, and paternal phenotype (males are fighters, able to kill other mites, or benign scramblers) interactively affected offspring age and size at maturity. The largest effect occurred when both maternal and offspring nutrition was poor: in that case offspring from fighter sires required a significantly longer development time than offspring from scrambler sires. Investigating parental effects on the relationship between age and size at maturity revealed no paternal effects, and only for females was its shape influenced by maternal nutrition. Overall, this reaction norm was nonlinear. These non-genetic intergenerational effects may play a complex, yet unexplored role in influencing population fluctuations—possibly explaining why results from field studies often do not match theoretical predictions on maternal effects on population dynamics.

Modelling recolonization of second-growth forest stands by the north american red squirrel Tamiasciurus hudsonicus.

PubMed

Nyquist, B; Tyson, R; Larsen, K

2007-05-01

In this paper, we present a model for source-sink population dynamics where the locations of source and sink habitats change over time. We do this in the context of the population dynamics of the North American red squirrel, Tamiasciurus hudsonicus, within a forest environment subject to harvesting and regrowth. Harvested patches of forest are initially sinks, then eventually become source habitat again as the forest regrows. At the same time, each harvested patch is gradually recolonized by squirrels from other forest patches. We are interested in the interaction of forest harvesting dynamics with squirrel population dynamics. This depends on the harvesting schedule, and on the choices squirrels make when deciding whether to settle in a mature forest patch or in a recently harvested patch. We find that the time it takes for a second-growth forest patch to be recolonized at the mature forest level is longer than the time required for the habitat quality to be restored to the mature forest level. We also notice that recolonization pressure decreases squirrel populations in neighbouring patches. The connectivity between forest patches and the cutting schedule used also affect the time course of recolonization and steady-state population levels.

Environmental variability and population dynamics: Do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pöysä, Hannu; Rintala, Jukka; Johnson, Douglas H.; Kauppinen, Jukka; Lammi, Esa; Nudds, Thomas D.; Väänänen, Veli-Matti

2016-01-01

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively “fast species” and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively “slow species” and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.

Environmental variability and population dynamics: do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

PubMed

Pöysä, Hannu; Rintala, Jukka; Johnson, Douglas H; Kauppinen, Jukka; Lammi, Esa; Nudds, Thomas D; Väänänen, Veli-Matti

2016-10-01

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively "fast species" and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively "slow species" and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrison, P.

Shifts in American population dynamics during the last two decades, a period of lower birthrates and changes in age and place distribution, reflect new attitudes toward childbearing and family orientation that will have a profound effect in the next century. Demographers project a range in population growth between 1.7 and 2.7%, with more attention being given to who has children, whether or when they have them, and the changing economic role of women. Changes in age distribution lead to shifts in demand for related public services, especially affecting the financing of schools and Social Security. Population migration from metropolitan areasmore » and from the Snow to the Sun Belt has caused urban and regional problems. Demographic changes affect redistribution programs and undermine the traditional economic and political framework for carrying out redistribution. They affect census accuracy, labor-pool quality, public dependency, problems of illegal aliens, and require local fiscal adjustments to either a shrinking or a growing population.« less

How does selfing affect the dynamics of selfish transposable elements?

PubMed

Boutin, Thibaud S; Le Rouzic, Arnaud; Capy, Pierre

2012-03-07

Many theoretical models predicting the dynamics of transposable elements (TEs) in genomes, populations, and species have already been proposed. However, most of them only focus on populations of sexual diploid individuals, and TE dynamics in populations partly composed by autogamous individuals remains poorly investigated. To estimate the impact of selfing on TE dynamics, the short- and long-term evolution of TEs was simulated in outcrossing populations with various proportions of selfing individuals. Selfing has a deep impact on TE dynamics: the higher the selfing rate, the lower the probability of invasion. Already known non-equilibrium dynamics (complete loss, domestication, cyclical invasion of TEs) can all be described whatever the mating system. However, their pattern and their respective frequencies greatly depend on the selfing rate. For instance, in cyclical dynamics resulting from interactions between autonomous and non-autonomous copies, cycles are faster when the selfing rate increases. Interestingly, an abrupt change in the mating system from sexuality to complete asexuality leads to the loss of all the elements over a few hundred generations. In general, for intermediate selfing rates, the transposition activity remains maintained. Our theoretical results evidence that a clear and systematic contrast in TE content according to the mating system is expected, with a smooth transition for intermediate selfing rates. Several parameters impact the TE copy number, and all dynamics described in allogamous populations can be also observed in partly autogamous species. This study thus provides new insights to understand the complex signal from empirical comparison of closely related species with different mating systems.

An investigation of emotion dynamics in major depressive disorder patients and healthy persons using sparse longitudinal networks.

PubMed

de Vos, Stijn; Wardenaar, Klaas J; Bos, Elisabeth H; Wit, Ernst C; Bouwmans, Mara E J; de Jonge, Peter

2017-01-01

Differences in within-person emotion dynamics may be an important source of heterogeneity in depression. To investigate these dynamics, researchers have previously combined multilevel regression analyses with network representations. However, sparse network methods, specifically developed for longitudinal network analyses, have not been applied. Therefore, this study used this approach to investigate population-level and individual-level emotion dynamics in healthy and depressed persons and compared this method with the multilevel approach. Time-series data were collected in pair-matched healthy persons and major depressive disorder (MDD) patients (n = 54). Seven positive affect (PA) and seven negative affect (NA) items were administered electronically at 90 times (30 days; thrice per day). The population-level (healthy vs. MDD) and individual-level time series were analyzed using a sparse longitudinal network model based on vector autoregression. The population-level model was also estimated with a multilevel approach. Effects of different preprocessing steps were evaluated as well. The characteristics of the longitudinal networks were investigated to gain insight into the emotion dynamics. In the population-level networks, longitudinal network connectivity was strongest in the healthy group, with nodes showing more and stronger longitudinal associations with each other. Individually estimated networks varied strongly across individuals. Individual variations in network connectivity were unrelated to baseline characteristics (depression status, neuroticism, severity). A multilevel approach applied to the same data showed higher connectivity in the MDD group, which seemed partly related to the preprocessing approach. The sparse network approach can be useful for the estimation of networks with multiple nodes, where overparameterization is an issue, and for individual-level networks. However, its current inability to model random effects makes it less useful as a population-level approach in case of large heterogeneity. Different preprocessing strategies appeared to strongly influence the results, complicating inferences about network density.

Canopy gaps affect long-term patterns of tree growth and mortality in mature and old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Andrew N. Gray; Thomas A. Spies; Robert J. Pabst

2012-01-01

Canopy gaps created by tree mortality can affect the speed and trajectory of vegetation growth. Species’ population dynamics, and spatial heterogeneity in mature forests. Most studies focus on plant development within gaps, yet gaps also affect the mortality and growth of surrounding trees, which influence shading and root encroachment into gaps and determine whether,...

Effects of wind energy generation and white-nose syndrome on the viability of the Indiana bat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Russell, Robin E.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.

2016-01-01

Wind energy generation holds the potential to adversely affect wildlife populations. Species-wide effects are difficult to study and few, if any, studies examine effects of wind energy generation on any species across its entire range. One species that may be affected by wind energy generation is the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis), which is found in the eastern and midwestern United States. In addition to mortality from wind energy generation, the species also faces range-wide threats from the emerging infectious fungal disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS). White-nose syndrome, caused by Pseudogymnoascus destructans, disturbs hibernating bats leading to high levels of mortality. We used a spatially explicit full-annual-cycle model to investigate how wind turbine mortality and WNS may singly and then together affect population dynamics of this species. In the simulation, wind turbine mortality impacted the metapopulation dynamics of the species by causing extirpation of some of the smaller winter colonies. In general, effects of wind turbines were localized and focused on specific spatial subpopulations. Conversely, WNS had a depressive effect on the species across its range. Wind turbine mortality interacted with WNS and together these stressors had a larger impact than would be expected from either alone, principally because these stressors together act to reduce species abundance across the spectrum of population sizes. Our findings illustrate the importance of not only prioritizing the protection of large winter colonies as is currently done, but also of protecting metapopulation dynamics and migratory connectivity.

Effects of wind energy generation and white-nose syndrome on the viability of the Indiana bat.

PubMed

Erickson, Richard A; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Russell, Robin E; Szymanski, Jennifer A

2016-01-01

Wind energy generation holds the potential to adversely affect wildlife populations. Species-wide effects are difficult to study and few, if any, studies examine effects of wind energy generation on any species across its entire range. One species that may be affected by wind energy generation is the endangered Indiana bat ( Myotis sodalis ), which is found in the eastern and midwestern United States. In addition to mortality from wind energy generation, the species also faces range-wide threats from the emerging infectious fungal disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS). White-nose syndrome, caused by Pseudogymnoascus destructans , disturbs hibernating bats leading to high levels of mortality. We used a spatially explicit full-annual-cycle model to investigate how wind turbine mortality and WNS may singly and then together affect population dynamics of this species. In the simulation, wind turbine mortality impacted the metapopulation dynamics of the species by causing extirpation of some of the smaller winter colonies. In general, effects of wind turbines were localized and focused on specific spatial subpopulations. Conversely, WNS had a depressive effect on the species across its range. Wind turbine mortality interacted with WNS and together these stressors had a larger impact than would be expected from either alone, principally because these stressors together act to reduce species abundance across the spectrum of population sizes. Our findings illustrate the importance of not only prioritizing the protection of large winter colonies as is currently done, but also of protecting metapopulation dynamics and migratory connectivity.

Model of white oak flower survival and maturation

Treesearch

David R. Larsen; Robert A. Cecich

1997-01-01

A stochastic model of oak flower dynamics is presented that integrates a number of factors which appear to affect the oak pistillate flower development process. The factors are modeled such that the distribution of the predicted flower populations could have come from the same distribution as the observed flower populations. Factors included in the model are; the range...

77 FR 35431 - Notice of Permit Applications Received Under the Antarctic Conservation Act of 1978 (Pub. L. 95-541)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-13

...-007, Ecology Department, Montana State University, 310 Lewis Hall, Bozeman, MT 59715. Activity for... heterogeneity in life-history tactics of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. A breeding population of... evaluate how temporal variation in the marine environment affects a long-lived mammal's population dynamics...

Anthropogenic habitat disturbance and the dynamics of hantavirus using remote sensing, GIS, and a spatially explicit agent-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Lina

Sin Nombre virus (SNV), a strain of hantavirus, causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans, a deadly disease with high mortality rate (>50%). The primary virus host is deer mice, and greater deer mice abundance has been shown to increase the human risk of HPS. There is a great need in understanding the nature of the virus host, its temporal and spatial dynamics, and its relation to the human population with the purpose of predicting human risk of the disease. This research studies SNV dynamics in deer mice in the Great Basin Desert of central Utah, USA using multiyear field data and integrated geospatial approaches including remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and a spatially explicit agent-based model. The goal is to advance our understanding of the important ecological and demographic factors that affect the dynamics of deer mouse population and SNV prevalence. The primary research question is how climate, habitat disturbance, and deer mouse demographics affect deer mouse population density, its movement, and SNV prevalence in the sagebrush habitat. The results show that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) can be good predictors of deer mouse density and the number of infected deer mice with a time lag of 1.0 to 1.3 years. This information can be very useful in predicting mouse abundance and SNV risk. The results also showed that climate, mouse density, sex, mass, and SNV infection had significant effects on deer mouse movement. The effect of habitat disturbance on mouse movement varies according to climate conditions with positive relationship in predrought condition and negative association in postdrought condition. The heavier infected deer mice moved the most. Season and disturbance alone had no significant effects. The spatial agent-based model (SABM) simulation results show that prevalence was negatively related to the disturbance levels and the sensitivity analysis showed that population density was one of the most important parameters affecting the SNV dynamics. The results also indicated that habitat disturbance could increase hantavirus transmission likely by increasing the movement and consequently contact rates. However, the model suggested that habitat disturbance had a much stronger effect on prevalence by decreasing population density than by increasing mice movement. Therefore, overall habitat disturbance reduces SNV prevalence.

Integrating association data and disease dynamics: an illustration using African Buffalo in Kruger National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, Paul C.; James O, Lloyd-Smith; Bowers, Justin A.; Hay, Craig T.; Hofmeyr, Markus; Getz, Wayne M.

2004-01-01

Recognition is a prerequisite for non-random association amongst individuals. We explore how non-random association patterns (i.e. who spends time with whom) affect disease dynamics. We estimated the amount of time individuals spent together per month using radio-tracking data from African buffalo and incorporated these data into a dynamic social network model. The dynamic nature of the network has a strong influence on simulated disease dynamics particularly for diseases with shorter infectious periods. Cluster analyses of the association data demonstrated that buffalo herds were not as well defined as previously thought. Associations were more tightly clustered in 2002 than 2003, perhaps due to drier conditions in 2003. As a result, diseases may spread faster during drought conditions due to increased population mixing. Association data are often collected but this is the first use of empirical data in a network disease model in a wildlife population.

At Lunch with a Killer: The Effect of Weaver Ants on Host-Parasitoid Interactions on Mango

PubMed Central

Migani, Valentina; Ekesi, Sunday; Merkel, Katharina; Hoffmeister, Thomas

2017-01-01

Predator-prey interactions can affect the behaviour of the species involved, with consequences for population distribution and competitive interactions. Under predation pressure, potential prey may adopt evasive strategies. These responses can be costly and could impact population growth. As some prey species may be more affected than others, predation pressure could also alter the dynamics among species within communities. In field cages and small observation cages, we studied the interactions between a generalist predator, the African weaver ant, Oecophylla longinoda, two species of fruit flies that are primary pests of mango fruits, Ceratitis cosyra and Bactrocera dorsalis, and their two exotic parasitoids, Fopius arisanus and Diachasmimorpha longicaudata. In all experiments, either a single individual (observation cage experiments) or groups of individuals (field cage experiments) of a single species were exposed to foraging in the presence or absence of weaver ants. Weaver ant presence reduced the number of eggs laid by 75 and 50 percent in B. dorsalis and C. cosyra respectively. Similarly, parasitoid reproductive success was negatively affected by ant presence, with success of parasitism reduced by around 50 percent for both F. arisanus and D. longicaudata. The negative effect of weaver ants on both flies and parasitoids was mainly due to indirect predation effects. Encounters with weaver ant workers increased the leaving tendency in flies and parasitoids, thus reduced the time spent foraging on mango fruits. Parasitoids were impacted more strongly than fruit flies. We discuss how weaver ant predation pressure may affect the population dynamics of the fruit flies, and, in turn, how the alteration of host dynamics could impact parasitoid foraging behaviour and success. PMID:28146561

DynaPop-X: A population dynamics model applied to spatio-temporal exposure assessment - Implementation aspects from the CRISMA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubrecht, Christoph; Steinnocher, Klaus; Humer, Heinrich; Huber, Hermann

2014-05-01

In the context of proactive disaster risk as well as immediate situational crisis management knowledge of locational social aspects in terms of spatio-temporal population distribution dynamics is considered among the most important factors for disaster impact minimization (Aubrecht et al., 2013a). This applies to both the pre-event stage for designing appropriate preparedness measures and to acute crisis situations when an event chain actually unfolds for efficient situation-aware response. The presented DynaPop population dynamics model is developed at the interface of those interlinked crisis stages and aims at providing basic input for social impact evaluation and decision support in crisis management. The model provides the starting point for assessing population exposure dynamics - thus here labeled as DynaPop-X - which can either be applied in a sense of illustrating the changing locations and numbers of affected people at different stages during an event or as ex-ante estimations of probable and maximum expected clusters of affected population (Aubrecht et al., 2013b; Freire & Aubrecht, 2012). DynaPop is implemented via a gridded spatial disaggregation approach and integrates previous efforts on spatio-temporal modeling that account for various aspects of population dynamics such as human mobility and activity patterns that are particularly relevant in picturing the highly dynamic daytime situation (Ahola et al., 2007; Bhaduri, 2008; Cockings et al., 2010). We will present ongoing developments particularly focusing on the implementation logic of the model using the emikat software tool, a data management system initially designed for inventorying and analysis of spatially resolved regional air pollutant emission scenarios. This study was performed in the framework of the EU CRISMA project. CRISMA is funded from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 284552. REFERENCES Ahola, T., Virrantaus, K., Krisp, J.K., Hunter, G.J. (2007) A spatio-temporal population model to support risk assessment and damage analysis for decision-making. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 21(8), 935-953. Aubrecht, C., Fuchs, S., Neuhold, C. (2013a) Spatio-temporal aspects and dimensions in integrated disaster risk management. Natural Hazards, 68(3), 1205-1216. Aubrecht, C., Özceylan, D., Steinnocher, K., Freire, S. (2013b) Multi-level geospatial modeling of human exposure patterns and vulnerability indicators. Natural Hazards, 68(1), 147-163. Bhaduri, B. (2008) Population distribution during the day. In S. Shekhar & X. Hui, eds., Encyclopedia of GIS. Springer US, 880-885. Cockings, S., Martin, D. & Leung, S. (2010) Population 24/7: building space-time specific population surface models. In M. Haklay, J. Morley, & H. Rahemtulla, eds., Proceedings of the GIS Research UK 18th Annual conference. GISRUK 2010. London, UK, 41-47. Freire, S., Aubrecht, C. (2012) Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12(11), 3533-3543.

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

PubMed Central

Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

2016-01-01

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems. PMID:27362499

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

PubMed

Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

2016-01-01

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibian populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

2010-01-01

As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

Climate events synchronize the dynamics of a resident vertebrate community in the high Arctic.

PubMed

Hansen, Brage B; Grøtan, Vidar; Aanes, Ronny; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Stien, Audun; Fuglei, Eva; Ims, Rolf A; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Pedersen, Ashild Ø

2013-01-18

Recently accumulated evidence has documented a climate impact on the demography and dynamics of single species, yet the impact at the community level is poorly understood. Here, we show that in Svalbard in the high Arctic, extreme weather events synchronize population fluctuations across an entire community of resident vertebrate herbivores and cause lagged correlations with the secondary consumer, the arctic fox. This synchronization is mainly driven by heavy rain on snow that encapsulates the vegetation in ice and blocks winter forage availability for herbivores. Thus, indirect and bottom-up climate forcing drives the population dynamics across all overwintering vertebrates. Icing is predicted to become more frequent in the circumpolar Arctic and may therefore strongly affect terrestrial ecosystem characteristics.

[Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

PubMed

Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

2014-09-01

Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

Time delays, population, and economic development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gori, Luca; Guerrini, Luca; Sodini, Mauro

2018-05-01

This research develops an augmented Solow model with population dynamics and time delays. The model produces either a single stationary state or multiple stationary states (able to characterise different development regimes). The existence of time delays may cause persistent fluctuations in both economic and demographic variables. In addition, the work identifies in a simple way the reasons why economics affects demographics and vice versa.

Comparative trends in log populations in northern Arizona mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests following severe drought

Treesearch

Joseph L. Ganey; Scott C. Vojta

2017-01-01

Logs provide an important form of coarse woody debris in forest systems, contributing to numerous ecological processes and affecting wildlife habitat and fuel complexes. Despite this, little information is available on the dynamics of log populations in southwestern ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and especially mixed-conifer forests. A recent episode of elevated tree...

Environmental fluctuations restrict eco-evolutionary dynamics in predator-prey system.

PubMed

Hiltunen, Teppo; Ayan, Gökçe B; Becks, Lutz

2015-06-07

Environmental fluctuations, species interactions and rapid evolution are all predicted to affect community structure and their temporal dynamics. Although the effects of the abiotic environment and prey evolution on ecological community dynamics have been studied separately, these factors can also have interactive effects. Here we used bacteria-ciliate microcosm experiments to test for eco-evolutionary dynamics in fluctuating environments. Specifically, we followed population dynamics and a prey defence trait over time when populations were exposed to regular changes of bottom-up or top-down stressors, or combinations of these. We found that the rate of evolution of a defence trait was significantly lower in fluctuating compared with stable environments, and that the defence trait evolved to lower levels when two environmental stressors changed recurrently. The latter suggests that top-down and bottom-up changes can have additive effects constraining evolutionary response within populations. The differences in evolutionary trajectories are explained by fluctuations in population sizes of the prey and the predator, which continuously alter the supply of mutations in the prey and strength of selection through predation. Thus, it may be necessary to adopt an eco-evolutionary perspective on studies concerning the evolution of traits mediating species interactions. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Population turnover and adaptation in heterogeneous environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, Paulo R. A.; de Oliveira, Viviane M.

2012-02-01

We study adaptive dynamics in a structured population model of asexual individuals which takes into account environmental heterogeneity among the subpopulations. The key purpose of the present work is to address how population turnovers, i.e. extinction events followed by recolonization, affect the rate of fixation of advantageous mutations. This model is a generalization of our previous model to address the interplay between environmental correlation and evolutionary forces on the adaptive process. The incorporation of population turnovers into the model enables us to make a direct correspondence between the model and host-parasite dynamics (epidemiological models). Strikingly, contrary to the intuitive and usual deleterious effect associated to extinction events, it is observed that population turnovers can in fact speed up adaptation as heterogeneity rises. On the other side, in nearly homogeneous population turnovers have a neutral effect on fixation rates, but a detrimental outcome is also achieved when extinction events become very common. In resume, population turnover outcomes on fixation rates of advantageous mutations are strongly influenced by the selective correlation among the subpopulations (demes).

Deciphering the Interdependence between Ecological and Evolutionary Networks.

PubMed

Melián, Carlos J; Matthews, Blake; de Andreazzi, Cecilia S; Rodríguez, Jorge P; Harmon, Luke J; Fortuna, Miguel A

2018-05-24

Biological systems consist of elements that interact within and across hierarchical levels. For example, interactions among genes determine traits of individuals, competitive and cooperative interactions among individuals influence population dynamics, and interactions among species affect the dynamics of communities and ecosystem processes. Such systems can be represented as hierarchical networks, but can have complex dynamics when interdependencies among levels of the hierarchy occur. We propose integrating ecological and evolutionary processes in hierarchical networks to explore interdependencies in biological systems. We connect gene networks underlying predator-prey trait distributions to food webs. Our approach addresses longstanding questions about how complex traits and intraspecific trait variation affect the interdependencies among biological levels and the stability of meta-ecosystems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale ( Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun

2015-10-01

The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree ( Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale (Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions.

PubMed

Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun

2015-10-01

The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree (Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

Spatiotemporal variation in deer browse and tolerance in a woodland herb

Treesearch

Holly R. Prendeville; Janet C. Steven; Laura F. Galloway

2015-01-01

Herbivory can shape the dynamics of plant populations, including effects on survival and reproduction, and is in turn affected by environmental factors that vary in space and time. White-tailed deer are significant herbivores in North America that have been broadly documented to affect plant reproductive success. If variation in the frequency and impact of herbivory by...

Detecting lower extremity vascular dynamics in patients with peripheral artery disease using diffuse optical tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil, Michael A.; Kim, Hyun-Keol K.; Kim, In-Kyong; Dayal, Rajeev; Hielscher, Andreas H.

2011-02-01

Peripheral Artery Disease (PAD) affects over 10 million Americans and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. While in many cases the ankle-brachial index (ABI) can be used for diagnosing the disease, this parameter is not dependable in the diabetic and elderly population. These populations tend to have calcified arteries, which leads to elevated ABI values. Dynamic optical tomography (DDOT) promises to overcome the limitations of the current diagnostic techniques and has the potential to initiate a paradigm shift in the diagnosis of vascular disease. We have performed initial pilot studies involving 5 PAD patients and 3 healthy volunteers. The time traces and tomographic reconstruction obtained from measurements on the feet show significant differences between healthy and affected vasculatures. In addition, we found that DOT is capable of identifying PAD in diabetic patients, who are misdiagnosed by the traditional ABI screening.

Response of native insect communities to invasive plants.

PubMed

Bezemer, T Martijn; Harvey, Jeffrey A; Cronin, James T

2014-01-01

Invasive plants can disrupt a range of trophic interactions in native communities. As a novel resource they can affect the performance of native insect herbivores and their natural enemies such as parasitoids and predators, and this can lead to host shifts of these herbivores and natural enemies. Through the release of volatile compounds, and by changing the chemical complexity of the habitat, invasive plants can also affect the behavior of native insects such as herbivores, parasitoids, and pollinators. Studies that compare insects on related native and invasive plants in invaded habitats show that the abundance of insect herbivores is often lower on invasive plants, but that damage levels are similar. The impact of invasive plants on the population dynamics of resident insect species has been rarely examined, but invasive plants can influence the spatial and temporal dynamics of native insect (meta)populations and communities, ultimately leading to changes at the landscape level.

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure

PubMed Central

Watts, Alexander G.; Schlichting, Peter E.; Billerman, Shawn M.; Jesmer, Brett R.; Micheletti, Steven; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Funk, W. Chris; Hapeman, Paul; Muths, Erin; Murphy, Melanie A.

2015-01-01

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations. PMID:26442094

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watts, Alexander G.; Schlichting, P; Billerman, S; Jesmer, B; Micheletti, S; Fortin, M.-J.; Funk, W.C.; Hapeman, P; Muths, Erin L.; Murphy, M.A.

2015-01-01

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations.

Bacterial adaptation to sublethal antibiotic gradients can change the ecological properties of multitrophic microbial communities

PubMed Central

Friman, Ville-Petri; Guzman, Laura Melissa; Reuman, Daniel C.; Bell, Thomas

2015-01-01

Antibiotics leak constantly into environments due to widespread use in agriculture and human therapy. Although sublethal concentrations are well known to select for antibiotic-resistant bacteria, little is known about how bacterial evolution cascades through food webs, having indirect effect on species not directly affected by antibiotics (e.g. via population dynamics or pleiotropic effects). Here, we used an experimental evolution approach to test how temporal patterns of antibiotic stress, as well as migration within metapopulations, affect the evolution and ecology of microcosms containing one prey bacterium, one phage and two protist predators. We found that environmental variability, autocorrelation and migration had only subtle effects for population and evolutionary dynamics. However, unexpectedly, bacteria evolved greatest fitness increases to both antibiotics and enemies when the sublethal levels of antibiotics were highest, indicating positive pleiotropy. Crucially, bacterial adaptation cascaded through the food web leading to reduced predator-to-prey abundance ratio, lowered predator community diversity and increased instability of populations. Our results show that the presence of natural enemies can modify and even reverse the effects of antibiotics on bacteria, and that antibiotic selection can change the ecological properties of multitrophic microbial communities by having indirect effects on species not directly affected by antibiotics. PMID:25833854

Bacterial adaptation to sublethal antibiotic gradients can change the ecological properties of multitrophic microbial communities.

PubMed

Friman, Ville-Petri; Guzman, Laura Melissa; Reuman, Daniel C; Bell, Thomas

2015-05-07

Antibiotics leak constantly into environments due to widespread use in agriculture and human therapy. Although sublethal concentrations are well known to select for antibiotic-resistant bacteria, little is known about how bacterial evolution cascades through food webs, having indirect effect on species not directly affected by antibiotics (e.g. via population dynamics or pleiotropic effects). Here, we used an experimental evolution approach to test how temporal patterns of antibiotic stress, as well as migration within metapopulations, affect the evolution and ecology of microcosms containing one prey bacterium, one phage and two protist predators. We found that environmental variability, autocorrelation and migration had only subtle effects for population and evolutionary dynamics. However, unexpectedly, bacteria evolved greatest fitness increases to both antibiotics and enemies when the sublethal levels of antibiotics were highest, indicating positive pleiotropy. Crucially, bacterial adaptation cascaded through the food web leading to reduced predator-to-prey abundance ratio, lowered predator community diversity and increased instability of populations. Our results show that the presence of natural enemies can modify and even reverse the effects of antibiotics on bacteria, and that antibiotic selection can change the ecological properties of multitrophic microbial communities by having indirect effects on species not directly affected by antibiotics. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Fixation Times in Deme Structured, Finite Populations with Rare Migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauert, Christoph; Chen, Yu-Ting; Imhof, Lorens A.

2014-08-01

Population structure affects both the outcome and the speed of evolutionary dynamics. Here we consider a finite population that is divided into subpopulations called demes. The dynamics within the demes are stochastic and frequency-dependent. Individuals can adopt one of two strategic types, or . The fitness of each individual is determined by interactions with other individuals in the same deme. With small probability, proportional to fitness, individuals migrate to other demes. The outcome of these dynamics has been studied earlier by analyzing the fixation probability of a single mutant in an otherwise homogeneous population. These results give only a partial picture of the dynamics, because the time when fixation occurs can be exceedingly large. In this paper, we study the impact of deme structures on the speed of evolution. We derive analytical approximations of fixation times in the limit of rare migration and rare mutation. In this limit, the conditional fixation time of a single mutant in a population is the same as that of a single in an population. For the prisoner's dilemma game, simulation results fit very well with our analytical predictions and demonstrate that fixation takes place in a moderate amount of time as compared to the expected waiting time until a mutant successfully invades and fixates. The simulations also confirm that the conditional fixation time of a single cooperator is indeed the same as that of a single defector.

The Role of Clonal Interference in the Evolutionary Dynamics of Plasmid-Host Adaptation

PubMed Central

Hughes, Julie M.; Lohman, Brian K.; Deckert, Gail E.; Nichols, Eric P.; Settles, Matt; Abdo, Zaid; Top, Eva M.

2012-01-01

ABSTRACT Promiscuous plasmids replicate in a wide range of bacteria and therefore play a key role in the dissemination of various host-beneficial traits, including antibiotic resistance. Despite the medical relevance, little is known about the evolutionary dynamics through which drug resistance plasmids adapt to new hosts and thereby persist in the absence of antibiotics. We previously showed that the incompatibility group P-1 (IncP-1) minireplicon pMS0506 drastically improved its stability in novel host Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 after 1,000 generations under antibiotic selection for the plasmid. The only mutations found were those affecting the N terminus of the plasmid replication initiation protein TrfA1. Our aim in this study was to gain insight into the dynamics of plasmid evolution. Changes in stability and genotype frequencies of pMS0506 were monitored in evolving populations of MR-1 (pMS0506). Genotypes were determined by sequencing trfA1 amplicons from individual clones and by 454 pyrosequencing of whole plasmids from entire populations. Stability of pMS0506 drastically improved by generation 200. Many evolved plasmid genotypes with point mutations as well as in-frame and frameshift deletions and duplications in trfA1 were observed in all lineages with both sequencing methods. Strikingly, multiple genotypes were simultaneously present at high frequencies (>10%) in each population. Their relative abundances changed over time, but after 1,000 generations only one or two genotypes dominated the populations. This suggests that hosts with different plasmid genotypes were competing with each other, thus affecting the evolutionary trajectory. Plasmids can thus rapidly improve their stability, and clonal interference plays a significant role in plasmid-host adaptation dynamics. PMID:22761390

Linking Vital Rates of Landbirds on a Tropical Island to Rainfall and Vegetation Greenness

PubMed Central

Saracco, James F.; Radley, Paul; Pyle, Peter; Rowan, Erin; Taylor, Ron; Helton, Lauren

2016-01-01

Remote tropical oceanic islands are of high conservation priority, and they are exemplified by range-restricted species with small global populations. Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall and plant productivity may be important in driving dynamics of these species. Yet, little is known about environmental influences on population dynamics for most islands and species. Here we leveraged avian capture-recapture, rainfall, and remote-sensed habitat data (enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) to assess relationships between rainfall, vegetation greenness, and demographic rates (productivity, adult apparent survival) of three native bird species on Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands: rufous fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons), bridled white-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus), and golden white-eye (Cleptornis marchei). Rainfall was positively related to vegetation greenness at all but the highest rainfall levels. Temporal variation in greenness affected the productivity of each bird species in unique ways. Predicted productivity of rufous fantail was highest when dry and wet season greenness values were high relative to site-specific 5-year seasonal mean values (i.e., relative greenness); while the white-eye species had highest predicted productivity when relative greenness contrasted between wet and dry seasons. Survival of rufous fantail and bridled white eye was positively related to relative dry-season greenness and negatively related to relative wet-season greenness. Bridled white-eye survival also showed evidence of a positive response to overall greenness. Our results highlight the potentially important role of rainfall regimes in affecting population dynamics of species on oceanic tropical islands. Understanding linkages between rainfall, vegetation, and animal population dynamics will be critical for developing effective conservation strategies in this and other regions where the seasonal timing, extent, and variability of rainfall is expected to change in the coming decades. PMID:26863013

Linking Vital Rates of Landbirds on a Tropical Island to Rainfall and Vegetation Greenness.

PubMed

Saracco, James F; Radley, Paul; Pyle, Peter; Rowan, Erin; Taylor, Ron; Helton, Lauren

2016-01-01

Remote tropical oceanic islands are of high conservation priority, and they are exemplified by range-restricted species with small global populations. Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall and plant productivity may be important in driving dynamics of these species. Yet, little is known about environmental influences on population dynamics for most islands and species. Here we leveraged avian capture-recapture, rainfall, and remote-sensed habitat data (enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) to assess relationships between rainfall, vegetation greenness, and demographic rates (productivity, adult apparent survival) of three native bird species on Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands: rufous fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons), bridled white-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus), and golden white-eye (Cleptornis marchei). Rainfall was positively related to vegetation greenness at all but the highest rainfall levels. Temporal variation in greenness affected the productivity of each bird species in unique ways. Predicted productivity of rufous fantail was highest when dry and wet season greenness values were high relative to site-specific 5-year seasonal mean values (i.e., relative greenness); while the white-eye species had highest predicted productivity when relative greenness contrasted between wet and dry seasons. Survival of rufous fantail and bridled white eye was positively related to relative dry-season greenness and negatively related to relative wet-season greenness. Bridled white-eye survival also showed evidence of a positive response to overall greenness. Our results highlight the potentially important role of rainfall regimes in affecting population dynamics of species on oceanic tropical islands. Understanding linkages between rainfall, vegetation, and animal population dynamics will be critical for developing effective conservation strategies in this and other regions where the seasonal timing, extent, and variability of rainfall is expected to change in the coming decades.

Effects of wind energy generation and white-nose syndrome on the viability of the Indiana bat

PubMed Central

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Russell, Robin E.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.

2016-01-01

Wind energy generation holds the potential to adversely affect wildlife populations. Species-wide effects are difficult to study and few, if any, studies examine effects of wind energy generation on any species across its entire range. One species that may be affected by wind energy generation is the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis), which is found in the eastern and midwestern United States. In addition to mortality from wind energy generation, the species also faces range-wide threats from the emerging infectious fungal disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS). White-nose syndrome, caused by Pseudogymnoascus destructans, disturbs hibernating bats leading to high levels of mortality. We used a spatially explicit full-annual-cycle model to investigate how wind turbine mortality and WNS may singly and then together affect population dynamics of this species. In the simulation, wind turbine mortality impacted the metapopulation dynamics of the species by causing extirpation of some of the smaller winter colonies. In general, effects of wind turbines were localized and focused on specific spatial subpopulations. Conversely, WNS had a depressive effect on the species across its range. Wind turbine mortality interacted with WNS and together these stressors had a larger impact than would be expected from either alone, principally because these stressors together act to reduce species abundance across the spectrum of population sizes. Our findings illustrate the importance of not only prioritizing the protection of large winter colonies as is currently done, but also of protecting metapopulation dynamics and migratory connectivity. PMID:28028486

Effects of enhanced UV-B radiation on secondary metabolites in forage plants and potential consequences for multiple trophic responses involving mammalian herbivores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thines, Nicole J.; Bassman, John H.; Shipley, Lisa A.; Slusser, James R.

2004-10-01

Herbivores represent the interface between primary production and higher trophic levels. The effects of enhanced UV-B radiation on microbes, invertebrate herbivores, and detritivores has received limited study in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. However, although direct effects (e.g. melanoma, cataracts) on mammals have been documented, indirect effects (e.g., resulting from changes in plant chemistry) of enhanced UV-B on mammalian herbivores have not been evaluated. Although the diet of mammalian herbivores has little effect on nutritional quality for their associated predators, to the extent changes in plant chemistry affect aspects of population dynamics (e.g., growth, fecundity, densities), higher trophic levels can be affected. In this study, different forage species of varying inherent levels of key secondary metabolites are being grown in the field under either ambient or ambient plus supplemental UV-B radiation simulating a 15% stratospheric ozone depletion for Pullman, Washington. At various time intervals, foliage is being sampled and analyzed for changes in secondary metabolites and other attributes. Using controlled feeding trials, changes in plant secondary metabolites are being related to preference and digestibility in specialist and generalist mammalian hindgut herbivores, digestion in ruminants and non-ruminants, and to selected aspects of population dynamics in mammalian herbivores. Results suggest how UV-B-induced changes in plant secondary chemistry affect animal nutrition, and thus animal productivity in a range of mammalian herbivores. Reductions in palatability and digestibility of plant material along with reductions in fecundity and other aspects of population dynamics could have significant economic ramifications for farmers, ranchers and wildlife biologists.

Phytophagous mite populations on Tahiti lime, Citrus latifolia, under induced drought conditions.

PubMed

Quiros-Gonzalez, M

2000-01-01

In the north-western region of Venezuela, Phyllocoptruta oleivora, Tetranychus mexicanus and Brevipalpus phoenicis are common plant-feeding mites on leaves, fruits and branches of Tahiti lime, Citrus latifolia. The population dynamics of these herbivores are affected by many factors, such as weekly treatments with wettable sulphur, particularly during the wet season, maintenance pruning of plants, irrigation with microsprinklers, induction of water stress by withholding irrigation and biotic and abiotic environmental factors. During October 1994-January 1995, 31 trees in a commercial orchard were sampled weekly in order to describe population fluctuations of plant-feeding mites (mean number of mites per leaf or fruit), before (4 weeks) and after (4 weeks) a period of 6 weeks of drought stress (no irrigation). The population density of P. oleivora increased progressively during the last 3 weeks of the irrigation period and reached a maximum of 24 mites per fruit. In contrast, the populations of the other two species, T. mexicanus and B. phoenicis, remained at the same low density as before the withholding-irrigation period. After 6 weeks without irrigation, only T. mexicanus increased, to a high mean value of 11 mites per leaf. The withholding-irrigation practice appears to affect the population size of P. oleivora towards the end of this period and that of T. mexicanus at the beginning of the re-establishment of the water supply. The highest proportion of trees (32%) was infested by T. mexicanus after the withholding-irrigation period, when irrigation was resumed, whereas the highest levels of infestation of trees by P. oleivora and B. phoenicis were 16 and 10%, respectively, during the last week of the water-stress period. Although factors affecting the dynamics of the mites in the orchard are likely to be complex, irrigation management apparently plays an important role.

Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Desprez, Marine; Fay, Remi; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Caswell, Hal

2018-07-01

Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long-lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: "Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?" We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry-over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at-sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre-breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry-over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate change. Robust conclusions about the roles of various phases of the life cycle and functional traits in population response to climate change rely on an understanding of the relationships of traits to demographic rates across the complete life cycle. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd oxn behalf of British Ecological Society.

The temporal spectrum of adult mosquito population fluctuations: conceptual and modeling implications.

PubMed

Jian, Yun; Silvestri, Sonia; Brown, Jeff; Hickman, Rick; Marani, Marco

2014-01-01

An improved understanding of mosquito population dynamics under natural environmental forcing requires adequate field observations spanning the full range of temporal scales over which mosquito abundance fluctuates in natural conditions. Here we analyze a 9-year daily time series of uninterrupted observations of adult mosquito abundance for multiple mosquito species in North Carolina to identify characteristic scales of temporal variability, the processes generating them, and the representativeness of observations at different sampling resolutions. We focus in particular on Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura and, using a combination of spectral analysis and modeling, we find significant population fluctuations with characteristic periodicity between 2 days and several years. Population dynamical modelling suggests that the observed fast fluctuations scales (2 days-weeks) are importantly affected by a varying mosquito activity in response to rapid changes in meteorological conditions, a process neglected in most representations of mosquito population dynamics. We further suggest that the range of time scales over which adult mosquito population variability takes place can be divided into three main parts. At small time scales (indicatively 2 days-1 month) observed population fluctuations are mainly driven by behavioral responses to rapid changes in weather conditions. At intermediate scales (1 to several month) environmentally-forced fluctuations in generation times, mortality rates, and density dependence determine the population characteristic response times. At longer scales (annual to multi-annual) mosquito populations follow seasonal and inter-annual environmental changes. We conclude that observations of adult mosquito populations should be based on a sub-weekly sampling frequency and that predictive models of mosquito abundance must include behavioral dynamics to separate the effects of a varying mosquito activity from actual changes in the abundance of the underlying population.

Numeric, Agent-based or System Dynamics Model? Which Modeling Approach is the Best for Vast Population Simulation?

PubMed

Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil

2018-01-01

Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25% of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Fortune favours the brave: Movement responses shape demographic dynamics in strongly competing populations.

PubMed

Potts, Jonathan R; Petrovskii, Sergei V

2017-05-07

Animal movement is a key mechanism for shaping population dynamics. The effect of interactions between competing animals on a population's survival has been studied for many decades. However, interactions also affect an animal's subsequent movement decisions. Despite this, the indirect effect of these decisions on animal survival is much less well-understood. Here, we incorporate movement responses to foreign animals into a model of two competing populations, where inter-specific competition is greater than intra-specific competition. When movement is diffusive, the travelling wave moves from the stronger population to the weaker. However, by incorporating behaviourally induced directed movement towards the stronger population, the weaker one can slow the travelling wave down, even reversing its direction. Hence movement responses can switch the predictions of traditional mechanistic models. Furthermore, when environmental heterogeneity is combined with aggressive movement strategies, it is possible for spatially segregated co-existence to emerge. In this situation, the spatial patterns of the competing populations have the unusual feature that they are slightly out-of-phase with the environmental patterns. Finally, incorporating dynamic movement responses can also enable stable co-existence in a homogeneous environment, giving a new mechanism for spatially segregated co-existence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population

PubMed Central

Bartolino, Valerio; Tian, Huidong; Bergström, Ulf; Jounela, Pekka; Aro, Eero; Dieterich, Christian; Meier, H. E. Markus; Cardinale, Massimiliano; Bland, Barbara

2017-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes. PMID:28207804

Environmental influence on population dynamics of the bivalve Anomalocardia brasiliana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corte, Guilherme Nascimento; Coleman, Ross A.; Amaral, A. Cecília Z.

2017-03-01

Understanding how species respond to the environment in terms of population attributes (e.g. abundance, growth, mortality, fecundity, and productivity) is essential to protect ecologically and economically important species. Nevertheless, responses of macrobenthic populations to environmental features are overlooked due to the need of consecutive samplings and time-consuming measurements. We examined the population dynamics of the filter-feeding bivalve Anomalocardia brasiliana on a tidal flat over the course of one year to investigate the hypothesis that, as accepted for macrobenthic communities, populations inhabiting environments with low hydrodynamic conditions such as tidal flat should have higher attributes than populations inhabiting more energetic habitats (i.e. areas more influenced by wave energy such as reflective and intermediate beaches). This would be expected because the harsh conditions of more energetic habitats force organisms to divert more energy towards maintenance, resulting in lower population attributes. We found that A. brasiliana showed moderate growth and secondary production at the study area. Moreover the recruitment period was restricted to a few months. A comparison with previous studies showed that, contrary to expected, A. brasiliana populations from areas with low hydrodynamic conditions have lower abundance, growth, recruitment and turnover rate. It is likely that morphodynamic characteristics recorded in these environments, such as larger periods of air exposure and lower water circulation, may affect food conditions for filter-feeding species and increase competition. In addition, these characteristics may negatively affect macrobenthic species by enhancing eutrophication processes and anoxia. Overall, our results suggest that models accepted and applied at the macrobenthic community level might not be directly extended to A. brasiliana populations.

[Population and crisis. Economic inflexibility or demographic subordination].

PubMed

Morelos, J B

1989-01-01

Much speculation, fact-based and subjective, has centered on the links between population and economic crisis, and between population and progress. In the past, famines directly affected the size and dynamics of population in affected regions, and such cycles inspired theories that regarded subsistence as the adjustment mechanism for demographic regimes. Population has alternatively been viewed as a crucial factor of production and a force for modernization and progress. After World War I and the Great Depression, many economists believed that population growth would be indispensable for renewing economic expansion. The favorable view of population growth in Mexico led to measures to repatriate emigrants, attract immigrants, and improve health conditions. The gross national product grew by around 6.0% annually on average between 1940 and 1960, and the per capita GNP by about 3%. Demographic dynamics acquired momentum by the 1960s, with high growth rates, a young age structure, considerable demographic inertia, and relative predominance of the urban population. Indications began to appear that a primarily economic solution to achieving full development would be unlikely. The polarization of development, distributive insufficiency, distortions in exchange relations for agricultural products, and incorporation of inappropriate technologies were factors decreasing the ability of the economy to respond adequately to population demands. National development was insufficient to meet growing demographic pressures in the labor market, educational system, housing, and urban services. The adjustment programs reduced even further the flexibility of the government to respond to pressures. Expectations for the future have been seriously compromised by the fall of real incomes.

A new logistic dynamic particle swarm optimization algorithm based on random topology.

PubMed

Ni, Qingjian; Deng, Jianming

2013-01-01

Population topology of particle swarm optimization (PSO) will directly affect the dissemination of optimal information during the evolutionary process and will have a significant impact on the performance of PSO. Classic static population topologies are usually used in PSO, such as fully connected topology, ring topology, star topology, and square topology. In this paper, the performance of PSO with the proposed random topologies is analyzed, and the relationship between population topology and the performance of PSO is also explored from the perspective of graph theory characteristics in population topologies. Further, in a relatively new PSO variant which named logistic dynamic particle optimization, an extensive simulation study is presented to discuss the effectiveness of the random topology and the design strategies of population topology. Finally, the experimental data are analyzed and discussed. And about the design and use of population topology on PSO, some useful conclusions are proposed which can provide a basis for further discussion and research.

Multi-fractal characterization of bacterial swimming dynamics: a case study on real and simulated Serratia marcescens

PubMed Central

Bogdan, Paul; Wei, Guopeng; Marculescu, Radu; Zhuang, Jiang; Carlsen, Rika Wright; Sitti, Metin

2017-01-01

To add to the current state of knowledge about bacterial swimming dynamics, in this paper, we study the fractal swimming dynamics of populations of Serratia marcescens bacteria both in vitro and in silico, while accounting for realistic conditions like volume exclusion, chemical interactions, obstacles and distribution of chemoattractant in the environment. While previous research has shown that bacterial motion is non-ergodic, we demonstrate that, besides the non-ergodicity, the bacterial swimming dynamics is multi-fractal in nature. Finally, we demonstrate that the multi-fractal characteristic of bacterial dynamics is strongly affected by bacterial density and chemoattractant concentration. PMID:28804259

Population projection and development of the loreyi leafworm, Mythimna loreyi, as affected by temperature: application of an age-stage, two-sex life table

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The loreyi leafworm, Mythimna (=Leucania) loreyi (Duponchel), has recently emerged as a major pest of grain crops in China. Little is known about its basic biology and ecology, making it difficult to predict its population dynamics. An age-stage, two-sex life table was constructed for this insect wh...

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Most spatial models of host–parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. PMID:27798295

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics.

PubMed

Lion, S; Gandon, S

2016-10-26

Most spatial models of host-parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. © 2016 The Author(s).

Impact of time delay on the dynamics of SEIR epidemic model using cellular automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Natasha; Gupta, Arvind Kumar

2017-04-01

The delay of an infectious disease is significant when aiming to predict its strength and spreading patterns. In this paper the SEIR ​(susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) epidemic spread with time delay is analyzed through a two-dimensional cellular automata model. The time delay corresponding to the infectious span, predominantly, includes death during the latency period in due course of infection. The advancement of whole system is described by SEIR transition function complemented with crucial factors like inhomogeneous population distribution, birth and disease independent mortality. Moreover, to reflect more realistic population dynamics some stochastic parameters like population movement and connections at local level are also considered. The existence and stability of disease free equilibrium is investigated. Two prime behavioral patterns of disease dynamics is found depending on delay. The critical value of delay, beyond which there are notable variations in spread patterns, is computed. The influence of important parameters affecting the disease dynamics on basic reproduction number is also examined. The results obtained show that delay plays an affirmative role to control disease progression in an infected host.

Fish farms, parasites, and predators: implications for salmon population dynamics.

PubMed

Krkosek, Martin; Connors, Brendan M; Ford, Helen; Peacock, Stephanie; Mages, Paul; Ford, Jennifer S; Morton, Alexandra; Volpe, John P; Hilborn, Ray; Dill, Lawrence M; Lewis, Mark A

2011-04-01

For some salmon populations, the individual and population effects of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) transmission from sea cage salmon farms is probably mediated by predation, which is a primary natural source of mortality of juvenile salmon. We examined how sea lice infestation affects predation risk and mortality of juvenile pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon, and developed a mathematical model to assess the implications for population dynamics and conservation. A risk-taking experiment indicated that infected juvenile pink salmon accept a higher predation risk in order to obtain foraging opportunities. In a schooling experiment with juvenile chum salmon, infected individuals had increased nearest-neighbor distances and occupied peripheral positions in the school. Prey selection experiments with cutthroat trout (O. clarkii) predators indicated that infection reduces the ability of juvenile pink salmon to evade a predatory strike. Group predation experiments with coho salmon (O. kisutch) feeding on juvenile pink or chum salmon indicated that predators selectively consume infected prey. The experimental results indicate that lice may increase the rate of prey capture but not the handling time of a predator. Based on this result, we developed a mathematical model of sea lice and salmon population dynamics in which parasitism affects the attack rate in a type II functional response. Analysis of the model indicates that: (1) the estimated mortality of wild juvenile salmon due to sea lice infestation is probably higher than previously thought; (2) predation can cause a simultaneous decline in sea louse abundance on wild fish and salmon productivity that could mislead managers and regulators; and (3) compensatory mortality occurs in the saturation region of the type II functional response where prey are abundant because predators increase mortality of parasites but not overall predation rates. These findings indicate that predation is an important component of salmon-louse dynamics and has implications for estimating mortality, reducing infection, and developing conservation policy.

Rapid evolution of hosts begets species diversity at the cost of intraspecific diversity.

PubMed

Frickel, Jens; Theodosiou, Loukas; Becks, Lutz

2017-10-17

Ecosystems are complex food webs in which multiple species interact and ecological and evolutionary processes continuously shape populations and communities. Previous studies on eco-evolutionary dynamics have shown that the presence of intraspecific diversity affects community structure and function, and that eco-evolutionary feedback dynamics can be an important driver for its maintenance. Within communities, feedbacks are, however, often indirect, and they can feed back over many generations. Here, we studied eco-evolutionary feedbacks in evolving communities over many generations and compared two-species systems (virus-host and prey-predator) with a more complex three-species system (virus-host-predator). Both indirect density- and trait-mediated effects drove the dynamics in the complex system, where host-virus coevolution facilitated coexistence of predator and virus, and where coexistence, in return, lowered intraspecific diversity of the host population. Furthermore, ecological and evolutionary dynamics were significantly altered in the three-species system compared with the two-species systems. We found that the predator slowed host-virus coevolution in the complex system and that the virus' effect on the overall population dynamics was negligible when the three species coexisted. Overall, we show that a detailed understanding of the mechanism driving eco-evolutionary feedback dynamics is necessary for explaining trait and species diversity in communities, even in communities with only three species.

Predatory senescence in ageing wolves.

PubMed

MacNulty, Daniel R; Smith, Douglas W; Vucetich, John A; Mech, L David; Stahler, Daniel R; Packer, Craig

2009-12-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics.

Predatory senescence in ageing wolves

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacNulty, D.R.; Smith, D.W.; Vucetich, J.A.; Mech, L.D.; Stahler, D.R.; Packer, C.

2009-01-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Predatory senescence in aging wolves

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacNulty, Daniel R.; Smith, Douglas W.; Vucetich, John A.; Mech, L. David; Stahler, Daniel R.; Packer, Craig

2009-01-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics.

Sociality, individual fitness and population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Armitage, Kenneth B

2012-02-01

Social behaviour was proposed as a density-dependent intrinsic mechanism that could regulate an animal population by affecting reproduction and dispersal. Populations of the polygynous yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) fluctuate widely from year to year primarily driven by the number of weaned young. The temporal variation in projected population growth rate was driven mainly by changes in the age of first reproduction and fertility, which are affected by reproductive suppression. Dispersal is unrelated to population density, or the presence of the father; hence, neither of these limits population growth or acts as an intrinsic mechanism of population regulation; overall, intrinsic regulation seems unlikely. Sociality affects the likelihood of reproduction in that the annual probability of reproducing and the lifetime number of offspring are decreased by the number of older females and by the number of same-aged females present, but are increased by the number of younger adult females present. Recruitment of a yearling female is most likely when her mother is present; recruitment of philopatric females is much more important than immigration for increasing the number of adult female residents. Predation and overwinter mortality are the major factors limiting the number of resident adults. Social behaviour is not directed towards population regulation, but is best interpreted as functioning to maximize direct fitness. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

DOE PAGES

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; ...

2016-10-24

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates inmore » the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.« less

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates inmore » the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.« less

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Homer, Collin G.; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R.; Adler, Peter B.

2016-01-01

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

Population biological principles of drug-resistance evolution in infectious diseases.

PubMed

zur Wiesch, Pia Abel; Kouyos, Roger; Engelstädter, Jan; Regoes, Roland R; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

2011-03-01

The emergence of resistant pathogens in response to selection pressure by drugs and their possible disappearance when drug use is discontinued are evolutionary processes common to many pathogens. Population biological models have been used to study the dynamics of resistance in viruses, bacteria, and eukaryotic microparasites both at the level of the individual treated host and of the treated host population. Despite the existence of generic features that underlie such evolutionary dynamics, different conclusions have been reached about the key factors affecting the rate of resistance evolution and how to best use drugs to minimise the risk of generating high levels of resistance. Improved understanding of generic versus specific population biological aspects will help to translate results between different studies, and allow development of a more rational basis for sustainable drug use than exists at present. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability of a killer whale social network to disease outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães, Paulo R., Jr.; de Menezes, Márcio Argollo; Baird, Robin W.; Lusseau, David; Guimarães, Paulo; Dos Reis, Sérgio F.

2007-10-01

Emerging infectious diseases are among the main threats to conservation of biological diversity. A crucial task facing epidemiologists is to predict the vulnerability of populations of endangered animals to disease outbreaks. In this context, the network structure of social interactions within animal populations may affect disease spreading. However, endangered animal populations are often small and to investigate the dynamics of small networks is a difficult task. Using network theory, we show that the social structure of an endangered population of mammal-eating killer whales is vulnerable to disease outbreaks. This feature was found to be a consequence of the combined effects of the topology and strength of social links among individuals. Our results uncover a serious challenge for conservation of the species and its ecosystem. In addition, this study shows that the network approach can be useful to study dynamical processes in very small networks.

The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird.

PubMed

Townsend, Andrea K; Cooch, Evan G; Sillett, T Scott; Rodenhouse, Nicholas L; Holmes, Richard T; Webster, Michael S

2016-02-01

Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The model of fungal population dynamics affected by nystatin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voychuk, Sergei I.; Gromozova, Elena N.; Sadovskiy, Mikhail G.

Fungal diseases are acute problems of the up-to-day medicine. Significant increase of resistance of microorganisms to the medically used antibiotics and a lack of new effective drugs follows in a growth of dosage of existing chemicals to solve the problem. Quite often such approach results in side effects on humans. Detailed study of fungi-antibiotic dynamics can identify new mechanisms and bring new ideas to overcome the microbial resistance with a lower dosage of antibiotics. In this study, the dynamics of the microbial population under antibiotic treatment was investigated. The effects of nystatin on the population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts were used as a model system. Nystatin effects were investigated both in liquid and solid media by viability tests. Dependence of nystatin action on osmotic gradient was evaluated in NaCl solutions. Influences of glucose and yeast extract were additionally analyzed. A "stepwise" pattern of the cell death caused by nystatin was the most intriguing. This pattern manifested in periodical changes of the stages of cell death against stages of resistance to the antibiotic. The mathematical model was proposed to describe cell-antibiotic interactions and nystatin viability effects in the liquid medium. The model implies that antibiotic ability to cause a cells death is significantly affected by the intracellular compounds, which came out of cells after their osmotic barriers were damaged

Are adult life history traits in oriental fruit moth affected by a mild pupal heat stress?

PubMed

Zheng, Jincheng; Cheng, Xiongbin; Hoffmann, Ary A; Zhang, Bo; Ma, Chun-Sen

2017-10-01

Thermal stress at one life stage can affect fitness at a later stage in ectotherms with complex life cycles. Most relevant studies have focused on extreme stress levels, but here we also show substantial fitness effects in a moth when pupae are exposed to a relatively mild and sublethal heat stress. We consider the impact of a 35°C heat stress of 2h in three geographically separate populations of the oriental fruit moth (OFM, Grapholita molesta) from northern, middle and southern China. Heat stress negatively affected fecundity but increased adult heat resistance and adult longevity. Fitness effects were mostly consistent across populations but there were also some population differences. In the Shenyang population from northern China, there was a hormetic effect of heat on female longevity not evident in the other populations. Adults from all populations had higher LT 50 s due to heat stress after pupal exposure to the sublethal stress. These results highlight that the pupal stage is a particularly sensitive window for development and they have implications for seasonal adaptation in uncertain environments as well as changes in pest dynamics under climate warming. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tropical forest landscape dynamics: Population consequences for neotropical lianas, genus Passiflora

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plowes, Robert Merrick

Treefall gaps in rainforest landscapes play a crucial role in providing opportunities for establishment and growth of rare, light-demanding plants such as Passifora vines in Corcovado rainforests, Costa Rica. This study considers the interplay of landscape dynamics with plant life history traits and strategies in an ephemeral patch network. In Chapter One, I show how patch quality dynamics and propagule dispersal affect colonization of treefall gaps by Passifora vitifolia. Recruitment required high patch quality, exceeding 3 hours of sunlight and patches closed after about 6 years. Colonization by seed dispersal (80%) was constrained by patch quality and isolation, while clonal growth from dormant plants (20%) was limited to rare adjacent patches. Since patch turnover is critical in these systems, Chapter Two is focused on factors affecting canopy structure. I showed that prior landuse altered the dynamics of frequent, small-scale disturbances during succession following a single, large deforestation event. Here, I used Landsat subpixel analysis, aerial photographs and field surveys to demonstrate major changes in dynamics of regenerating canopies following release from agricultural activity in 1975. Little work has considered the role of life history traits in persistence of patchy populations, and so in Chapter Three I asked what life history strategies are used by 9 Passiflora species that occur in these transient forest gaps. Although Passiflora species exhibited differences in dormancy or dispersal strategies, abundance was not associated with any one strategy. Elasticities of vital rates (stasis, growth and fecundity) of P. vitifolia differed empirically in old growth and regenerating forests. To explore population responses to changes in landscape parameters or life history strategies, I created a spatially-explicit individual-based model. Simulations indicate that plant types with a dormancy phase have a greater suite of responses since they persist after patch extinction with potential to contribute later through both sexual and asexual dispersal. Plants that rely only on high dispersal were extinction prone in low connectivity landscapes. This novel approach of jointly analyzing spatially-explicit patch parameters and life history traits offers a comprehensive framework for further understanding the effects of patch dynamics on populations.

Reactive strategies in indirect reciprocity.

PubMed

Ohtsuki, Hisashi

2004-04-07

Evolution of reactive strategy of indirect reciprocity is discussed, where individuals interact with others through the one-shot Prisoner's Dilemma game, changing their partners in every round. We investigate all of the reactive strategies that are stochastic, including deterministic ones as special cases. First we study adaptive dynamics of reactive strategies by assuming monomorphic population. Results are very similar to the corresponding evolutionary dynamics of direct reciprocity. The discriminating strategy, which prescribes cooperation only with those who cooperated in the previous round, cannot be an outcome of the evolution. Next we examine the case where the population includes a diversity of strategies. We find that only the mean 'discriminatoriness' in the population is the parameter that affects the evolutionary dynamics. The discriminating strategy works as a promoter of cooperation there. However, it is again not the end point of the evolution. This is because retaliatory defection, which was prescribed by the discriminating strategy, is regarded as another defection toward the society. These results caution that we have to reconsider the role of retaliatory defection much more carefully.

Allee effects and the spatial dynamics of a locally endangered butterfly, the high brown fritillary (Argynnis adippe).

PubMed

Bonsall, Michael B; Dooley, Claire A; Kasparson, Anna; Brereton, Tom; Roy, David B; Thomas, Jeremy A

2014-01-01

Conservation of endangered species necessitates a full appreciation of the ecological processes affecting the regulation, limitation, and persistence of populations. These processes are influenced by birth, death, and dispersal events, and characterizing them requires careful accounting of both the deterministic and stochastic processes operating at both local and regional population levels. We combined ecological theory and observations on Allee effects by linking mathematical analysis and the spatial and temporal population dynamics patterns of a highly endangered butterfly, the high brown fritillary, Argynnis adippe. Our theoretical analysis showed that the role of density-dependent feedbacks in the presence of local immigration can influence the strength of Allee effects. Linking this theory to the analysis of the population data revealed strong evidence for both negative density dependence and Allee effects at the landscape or regional scale. These regional dynamics are predicted to be highly influenced by immigration. Using a Bayesian state-space approach, we characterized the local-scale births, deaths, and dispersal effects together with measurement and process uncertainty in the metapopulation. Some form of an Allee effect influenced almost three-quarters of these local populations. Our joint analysis of the deterministic and stochastic dynamics suggests that a conservation priority for this species would be to increase resource availability in currently occupied and, more importantly, in unoccupied sites.

Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

PubMed

Owen-Smith, Norman

2011-07-01

1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and (iv) capacity to accommodate environmental variation in space as well as through time. Biomass dynamics provide a common currency linking behavioural, population and food web ecology. 4. Metaphysiological biomass loss accounting provides a conceptual framework more conducive for projecting and interpreting the population consequences of climatic shifts and human transformations of habitats than standard modelling approaches. © 2011 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Parks or Prisons?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomson, Gareth

1998-01-01

Presents a simulation activity in which students assume the role of grizzly bears in Banff National Park. Concepts such as species diversity, fitness, natural selection, habitat loss, extinction, and population dynamics are discussed. Children learn how human activities can affect the bear's reproductive success. Lists materials, instructional…

Critical factors in the establishment of allopolyploids.

PubMed

Fowler, Norma L; Levin, Donald A

2016-07-01

The growth and spread of new polyploid populations have been explained in terms of fitness advantages over their diploid progenitors. However, a fitness advantage is not sufficient to insure the establishment of a polyploid; it must also overcome the obstacles of demographic stochasticity and minority disadvantage. Several studies have addressed the population dynamics of autopolyploids, but the present study is the first to consider allopolyploids, which are affected by more factors than autopolyploids. We constructed a population dynamic model of four types of plants (two parent species, hybrids, allopolyploids) that also included an explicit breeding system. The numbers of plants of each type were the most important factors determining whether the new allopolyploid would become established. More polyploid plants greatly increased the likelihood of polyploid persistence. More plants of the parent species and more hybrids resulted in more polyploids being produced. The model parameters with the most effect on polyploid establishment were potential population size (K), individual plant fecundity, and niche separation (α). The most important breeding system parameters were selfing rates, which mitigated minority disadvantage imposed by pollen limitation. The importance of population sizes, and the parameters that controlled them, in overcoming demographic stochasticity parallels the well-recognized role of propagule pressure in determining the success of invasive species. We modeled the establishment of a new allopolyploid; analogous considerations would affect the establishment of a new autopolyploid. The critical role of population sizes in polyploid establishment should be more widely recognized. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data.

PubMed

Farrer, Emily C; Ashton, Isabel W; Knape, Jonas; Suding, Katharine N

2014-04-01

Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biogeochemistry of hypersaline microbial mats illustrates the dynamics of modern microbial ecosystems and the early evolution of the biosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Des Marais, David J.

2003-01-01

Photosynthetic microbial mats are remarkably complete self-sustaining ecosystems at the millimeter scale, yet they have substantially affected environmental processes on a planetary scale. These mats may be direct descendents of the most ancient biological communities in which even oxygenic photosynthesis might have developed. Photosynthetic mats are excellent natural laboratories to help us to learn how microbial populations associate to control dynamic biogeochemical gradients.

Missouri River Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon) effects analysis—Integrative report 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Annis, Mandy L.; Colvin, Michael E.; James, Daniel A.; Welker, Timothy L.; Parsley, Michael J.

2016-07-15

The Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis was designed to carry out three components of an assessment of how Missouri River management has affected, and will affect, population dynamics of endangered Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon): (1) collection of reliable scientific information, (2) critical assessment and synthesis of available data and analyses, and (3) analysis of the effects of actions on listed species and their habitats. This report is a synthesis of the three components emphasizing development of lines of evidence relating potential future management actions to pallid sturgeon population dynamics. We address 21 working management hypotheses that emerged from an expert opinion-based filtering process.The ability to quantify linkages from abiotic changes to pallid sturgeon population dynamics is compromised by fundamental information gaps. Although a substantial foundation of pallid sturgeon science has been developed during the past 20 years, our efforts attempt to push beyond that understanding to provide predictions of how future management actions may affect pallid sturgeon responses. For some of the 21 hypotheses, lines of evidence are limited to theoretical deduction, inference from sparse empirical datasets, or expert opinion. Useful simulation models have been developed to predict the effects of management actions on survival of drifting pallid sturgeon free embryos in the Yellowstone and Upper Missouri River complex (hereafter referred to as the “upper river”), and to assess the effects of flow and channel reconfigurations on habitat availability in the Lower Missouri River, tributaries, and Mississippi River downstream of Gavins Point Dam (hereafter referred to as the “lower river”). A population model also has been developed that can be used to assess sensitivity of the population to survival of specific life stages, assess some hypotheses related to stocking decisions, and explore a limited number of management scenarios.Consideration of lines of evidence for each of the 21 hypotheses includes a discussion of how the degree of uncertainty and risk associated with each hypothesis may guide science and implementation strategies. Implementation strategies include full implementation in the field, limited implementations as field-scale experiments, or (in the case of greatest uncertainty) implementation as learning actions, including research and opportunistic experiments or field-based gradient studies. Given the substantive uncertainties associated with pallid sturgeon population dynamics and the need to continually assimilate and assess new information, we proposed that an Effects Analysis-like process should be considered an integral part of ongoing Missouri River adaptive management.

An Integrated Assessment Model for Helping the United States Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) Fishery Plan Ahead for Ocean Acidification and Warming

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed. PMID:25945497

An Integrated Assessment Model for Helping the United States Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) Fishery Plan Ahead for Ocean Acidification and Warming.

PubMed

Cooley, Sarah R; Rheuban, Jennie E; Hart, Deborah R; Luu, Victoria; Glover, David M; Hare, Jonathan A; Doney, Scott C

2015-01-01

Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed.

Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins.

PubMed

Abadi, Fitsum; Barbraud, Christophe; Gimenez, Olivier

2017-03-01

Early-life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture-recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971-1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode (SAM), sea ice concentration (SIC)] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period (SAMR) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large-scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

From facilitation to competition: temperature-driven shift in dominant plant interactions affects population dynamics in seminatural grasslands.

PubMed

Olsen, Siri L; Töpper, Joachim P; Skarpaas, Olav; Vandvik, Vigdis; Klanderud, Kari

2016-05-01

Biotic interactions are often ignored in assessments of climate change impacts. However, climate-related changes in species interactions, often mediated through increased dominance of certain species or functional groups, may have important implications for how species respond to climate warming and altered precipitation patterns. We examined how a dominant plant functional group affected the population dynamics of four co-occurring forb species by experimentally removing graminoids in seminatural grasslands. Specifically, we explored how the interaction between dominants and subordinates varied with climate by replicating the removal experiment across a climate grid consisting of 12 field sites spanning broad-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in southern Norway. Biotic interactions affected population growth rates of all study species, and the net outcome of interactions between dominants and subordinates switched from facilitation to competition with increasing temperature along the temperature gradient. The impacts of competitive interactions on subordinates in the warmer sites could primarily be attributed to reduced plant survival. Whereas the response to dominant removal varied with temperature, there was no overall effect of precipitation on the balance between competition and facilitation. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the relative importance of competitive interactions in seminatural grasslands across a wide range of precipitation levels, thereby favouring highly competitive dominant species over subordinate species. As a result, seminatural grasslands may become increasingly dependent on disturbance (i.e. traditional management such as grazing and mowing) to maintain viable populations of subordinate species and thereby biodiversity under future climates. Our study highlights the importance of population-level studies replicated under different climatic conditions for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on plants. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Vibrio diversity and dynamics in the Monterey Bay upwelling region

PubMed Central

Mansergh, Sarah; Zehr, Jonathan P.

2013-01-01

The Vibrionaceae (Vibrio) are a ubiquitous group of metabolically flexible marine bacteria that play important roles in biogeochemical cycling in the ocean. Despite this versatility, little is known about Vibrio diversity and abundances in upwelling regions. The seasonal dynamics of Vibrio populations was examined by analysis of 16S rRNA genes in Monterey Bay (MB), California from April 2006–April 2008 at two long term monitoring stations, C1 and M2. Vibrio phylotypes within MB were diverse, with subpopulations clustering with several different cultured representatives including Allivibrio spp., Vibrio penaecida, and Vibrio splendidus as well as with many unidentified marine environmental bacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences. Total Vibrio population abundances, as well as abundances of a Vibrio sp. subpopulation (MBAY Vib7) and an Allivibrio sp. subpopulation (MBAY Vib4) were examined in the context of environmental parameters from mooring station and CTD cast data. Total Vibrio populations showed some seasonal variability but greater variability was observed within the two subpopulations. MBAY Vib4 was negatively associated with MB upwelling indices and positively correlated with oceanic season conditions, when upwelling winds relax and warmer surface waters are present in MB. MBAY Vib7 was also negatively associated with upwelling indices and represented a deeper Vibrio sp. population. Correlation patterns suggest that larger oceanographic conditions affect the dynamics of the populations in MB, rather than specific environmental factors. This study is the first to target and describe the diversity and dynamics of these natural populations in MB and demonstrates that these populations shift seasonally within the region. PMID:24575086

Duplicate retention in signalling proteins and constraints from network dynamics.

PubMed

Soyer, O S; Creevey, C J

2010-11-01

Duplications are a major driving force behind evolution. Most duplicates are believed to fix through genetic drift, but it is not clear whether this process affects all duplications equally or whether there are certain gene families that are expected to show neutral expansions under certain circumstances. Here, we analyse the neutrality of duplications in different functional classes of signalling proteins based on their effects on response dynamics. We find that duplications involving intermediary proteins in a signalling network are neutral more often than those involving receptors. Although the fraction of neutral duplications in all functional classes increase with decreasing population size and selective pressure on dynamics, this effect is most pronounced for receptors, indicating a possible expansion of receptors in species with small population size. In line with such an expectation, we found a statistically significant increase in the number of receptors as a fraction of genome size in eukaryotes compared with prokaryotes. Although not confirmative, these results indicate that neutral processes can be a significant factor in shaping signalling networks and affect proteins from different functional classes differently. © 2010 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2010 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Population dynamics and the ecological stability of obligate pollination mutualisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2001-01-01

Mutualistic interactions almost always produce both costs and benefits for each of the interacting species. It is the difference between gross benefits and costs that determines the net benefit and the per-capita effect on each of the interacting populations. For example, the net benefit of obligate pollinators, such as yucca and senita moths, to plants is determined by the difference between the number of ovules fertilized from moth pollination and the number of ovules eaten by the pollinator's larvae. It is clear that if pollinator populations are large, then, because many eggs are laid, costs to plants are large, whereas, if pollinator populations are small, gross benefits are low due to lack of pollination. Even though the size and dynamics of the pollinator population are likely to be crucial, their importance has been neglected in the investigation of mechanisms, such as selective fruit abortion, that can limit costs and increase net benefits. Here, we suggest that both the population size and dynamics of pollinators are important in determining the net benefits to plants, and that fruit abortion can significantly affect these. We develop a model of mutualism between populations of plants and their pollinating seed-predators to explore the ecological consequences of fruit abortion on pollinator population dynamics and the net effect on plants. We demonstrate that the benefit to a plant population is unimodal as a function of pollinator abundance, relative to the abundance of flowers. Both selective abortion of fruit with eggs and random abortion of fruit, without reference to whether they have eggs or not, can limit pollinator population size. This can increase the net benefits to the plant population by limiting the number of eggs laid, if the pollination rate remains high. However, fruit abortion can possibly destabilize the pollinator population, with negative consequences for the plant population.

Drivers of seabird population recovery on New Zealand islands after predator eradication.

PubMed

Buxton, Rachel T; Jones, Christopher; Moller, Henrik; Towns, David R

2014-04-01

Eradication of introduced mammalian predators from islands has become increasingly common, with over 800 successful projects around the world. Historically, introduced predators extirpated or reduced the size of many seabird populations, changing the dynamics of entire island ecosystems. Although the primary outcome of many eradication projects is the restoration of affected seabird populations, natural population responses are rarely documented and mechanisms are poorly understood. We used a generic model of seabird colony growth to identify key predictor variables relevant to recovery or recolonization. We used generalized linear mixed models to test the importance of these variables in driving seabird population responses after predator eradication on islands around New Zealand. The most influential variable affecting recolonization of seabirds around New Zealand was the distance to a source population, with few cases of recolonization without a source population ≤25 km away. Colony growth was most affected by metapopulation status; there was little colony growth in species with a declining status. These characteristics may facilitate the prioritization of newly predator-free islands for active management. Although we found some evidence documenting natural recovery, generally this topic was understudied. Our results suggest that in order to guide management strategies, more effort should be allocated to monitoring wildlife response after eradication. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Evolution in Mind: Evolutionary Dynamics, Cognitive Processes, and Bayesian Inference.

PubMed

Suchow, Jordan W; Bourgin, David D; Griffiths, Thomas L

2017-07-01

Evolutionary theory describes the dynamics of population change in settings affected by reproduction, selection, mutation, and drift. In the context of human cognition, evolutionary theory is most often invoked to explain the origins of capacities such as language, metacognition, and spatial reasoning, framing them as functional adaptations to an ancestral environment. However, evolutionary theory is useful for understanding the mind in a second way: as a mathematical framework for describing evolving populations of thoughts, ideas, and memories within a single mind. In fact, deep correspondences exist between the mathematics of evolution and of learning, with perhaps the deepest being an equivalence between certain evolutionary dynamics and Bayesian inference. This equivalence permits reinterpretation of evolutionary processes as algorithms for Bayesian inference and has relevance for understanding diverse cognitive capacities, including memory and creativity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive contact networks change effective disease infectiousness and dynamics.

PubMed

Van Segbroeck, Sven; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M

2010-08-19

Human societies are organized in complex webs that are constantly reshaped by a social dynamic which is influenced by the information individuals have about others. Similarly, epidemic spreading may be affected by local information that makes individuals aware of the health status of their social contacts, allowing them to avoid contact with those infected and to remain in touch with the healthy. Here we study disease dynamics in finite populations in which infection occurs along the links of a dynamical contact network whose reshaping may be biased based on each individual's health status. We adopt some of the most widely used epidemiological models, investigating the impact of the reshaping of the contact network on the disease dynamics. We derive analytical results in the limit where network reshaping occurs much faster than disease spreading and demonstrate numerically that this limit extends to a much wider range of time scales than one might anticipate. Specifically, we show that from a population-level description, disease propagation in a quickly adapting network can be formulated equivalently as disease spreading on a well-mixed population but with a rescaled infectiousness. We find that for all models studied here--SI, SIS and SIR--the effective infectiousness of a disease depends on the population size, the number of infected in the population, and the capacity of healthy individuals to sever contacts with the infected. Importantly, we indicate how the use of available information hinders disease progression, either by reducing the average time required to eradicate a disease (in case recovery is possible), or by increasing the average time needed for a disease to spread to the entire population (in case recovery or immunity is impossible).

An Approach to In-Situ Observations of Volcanic Plumes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smythe, W. D.; Lopes, M. C.; Pieri, D. C.; Hall, J. L.

2005-01-01

Volcanoes have long been recognized as playing a dominant role in the birth, and possibly the death, of biological populations. They are possible sources of primordial gases, provide conditions sufficient for creating amino acids, strongly affect the heat balance in the atmosphere, and have been shown to sustain life (in oceanic vents.) Eruptions can have profound effects on local flora and fauna, and for very large eruptions, may alter global weather patterns and cause entire species to fail. Measurements of particulates, gases, and dynamics within a volcanic plume are critical to understanding both how volcanoes work and how plumes affect populations, environment, and aviation. Volcanic plumes and associated eruption columns are a miasma of toxic gases, corrosive condensates, and abrasive particulates that makes them hazardous to nearby populations and poses a significant risk to all forms of aviation. Plumes also provide a mechanism for sampling the volcanic interior, which, for hydrothermal environments, may host unique biological populations.

ASSESSEMNT OF GONAD SIZE IN TAUTOGOLABRUS ADSPERSUS AS AN INDICATOR OF REPRODUCTION AND EDC EXPOSURE

EPA Science Inventory

Cunner habitat includes estuarine and marine areas where sewage treatment and other discharges containing estrogenic (EDCs) are likely.

Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in the environment may disturb the population dynamics of wildlife by affecting their reproductive...

Dynamic model for preventing mental retardation in the population: the importance of poverty and deprivation.

PubMed

McDermott, S W; Altekruse, J M

1994-01-01

A dynamic simulation model is used to answer the question, "What is the most effective child health policy initiative for the prevention of mental retardation (MR)?" The impact of medical strategies is contrasted with social interventions to see how they affect the prevalence of MR in the general population. The model is based on data from four U.S. Census and California Vital Statistics reports (1960, 1970, 1980, 1990). An interstate comparison (California and South Carolina) uses 1990 data. The results of the simulations reveal that medical interventions to improve the developmental outcome of low birth weight (LBW) infants did not cause a reduction in the rate of MR in the population after a 24-year trial period. In contrast, reducing the proportion of children living in poverty who are exposed to environmental deprivation significantly decreased (10%) MR at the end of the model's time period. This analysis supports the view that long-term reduction in MR prevalence is attainable by modifying public policies that influence children's development. Effective MR prevention calls for public policy committed to multifaceted health and educational services for both affected parents and their young children.

Urban growth and water access in sub-Saharan Africa: Progress, challenges, and emerging research directions.

PubMed

Dos Santos, S; Adams, E A; Neville, G; Wada, Y; de Sherbinin, A; Mullin Bernhardt, E; Adamo, S B

2017-12-31

For the next decade, the global water crisis remains the risk of highest concern, and ranks ahead of climate change, extreme weather events, food crises and social instability. Across the globe, nearly one in ten people is without access to an improved drinking water source. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the most affected, having disproportionately more of the global population without access to clean water than other major regions. Population growth, changing lifestyles, increasing pollution and accelerating urbanization will continue to widen the gap between the demand for water and available supply especially in urban areas, and disproportionately affect informal settlements, where the majority of SSA's urban population resides. Distribution and allocation of water will be affected by climate-induced water stresses, poor institutions, ineffective governance, and weak political will to address scarcity and mediate uncertainties in future supply. While attempts have been made by many scientists to examine different dimensions of water scarcity and urban population dynamics, there are few comprehensive reviews, especially focused on the particular situation in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper contributes to interdisciplinary understanding of urban water supply by distilling and integrating relevant empirical knowledge on urban dynamics and water issues in SSA, focusing on progress made and associated challenges. It then points out future research directions including the need to understand how alternatives to centralized water policies may help deliver sustainable water supply to cities and informal settlements in the region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity—a major outcome of ecosystem functions—on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. PMID:27053739

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics.

PubMed

Fernández, Néstor; Román, Jacinto; Delibes, Miguel

2016-04-13

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity--a major outcome of ecosystem functions--on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. © 2016 The Authors.

The Dynamics of HPV Infection and Cervical Cancer Cells.

PubMed

Asih, Tri Sri Noor; Lenhart, Suzanne; Wise, Steven; Aryati, Lina; Adi-Kusumo, F; Hardianti, Mardiah S; Forde, Jonathan

2016-01-01

The development of cervical cells from normal cells infected by human papillomavirus into invasive cancer cells can be modeled using population dynamics of the cells and free virus. The cell populations are separated into four compartments: susceptible cells, infected cells, precancerous cells and cancer cells. The model system of differential equations also has a free virus compartment in the system, which infect normal cells. We analyze the local stability of the equilibrium points of the model and investigate the parameters, which play an important role in the progression toward invasive cancer. By simulation, we investigate the boundary between initial conditions of solutions, which tend to stable equilibrium point, representing controlled infection, and those which tend to unbounded growth of the cancer cell population. Parameters affected by drug treatment are varied, and their effect on the risk of cancer progression is explored.

Ricky and Lucy: gender stereotyping among young Black men who have sex with men in the US Deep South and the implications for HIV risk in a severely affected population.

PubMed

Lichtenstein, Bronwen; Kay, Emma Sophia; Klinger, Ian; Mutchler, Matt G

2018-03-01

HIV disproportionately affects young Black men who have sex with men in the USA, with especially high rates in the Deep South. In this Alabama study, we interviewed 24 pairs of young Black men who have sex with men aged 19-24 and their close friends (n = 48) about sexual scripts, dating men and condom use. Three main themes emerged from the study: the power dynamics of 'top' and 'bottom' sexual positions for condom use; gender stereotyping in the iconic style of the 'I Love Lucy' show of the 1950s; and the sexual dominance of 'trade' men. Gender stereotyping was attributed to the cultural mores of Black families in the South, to the preferences of 'trade' men who exerted sexual and financial control and to internalised stigma relating to being Black, gay and marginalised. The findings suggest that HIV prevention education for young Black men who have sex with men is misguided if gendered power dynamics are ignored, and that funded access to self-protective strategies such as pre-exposure prophylaxis and post-exposure prophylaxis could reduce HIV risk for this severely affected population.

Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) population dynamics in Central Poland.

PubMed

Franz, Kamila W; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

2013-01-01

When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios.

Alternative prey use affects helminth parasite infections in grey wolves.

PubMed

Friesen, Olwyn C; Roth, James D

2016-09-01

Predators affect prey populations not only through direct predation, but also by acting as definitive hosts for their parasites and completing parasite life cycles. Understanding the affects of parasitism on prey population dynamics requires knowing how their predators' parasite community is affected by diet and prey availability. Ungulates, such as moose (Alces americanus) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), are often important prey for wolves (Canis lupus), but wolves also consume a variety of alternative prey, including beaver (Castor canadensis) and snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus). The use of alternative prey, which may host different or fewer parasites than ungulates, could potentially reduce overall abundance of ungulate parasites within the ecosystem, benefiting both wolves and ungulate hosts. We examined parasites in wolf carcasses from eastern Manitoba and estimated wolf diet using stable isotope analysis. Taeniidae cestodes were present in most wolves (75%), reflecting a diet primarily comprised of ungulates, but nematodes were unexpectedly rare. Cestode abundance was negatively related to the wolf's δ(13) C value, indicating diet affects parasite abundance. Wolves that consumed a higher proportion of beaver and caribou (Rangifer tarandus), estimated using Bayesian mixing models, had lower cestode abundance, suggesting the use of these alternative prey can reduce parasite loads. Long-term consumption of beavers may lower the abundance of adult parasites in wolves, eventually lowering parasite density in the region and ultimately benefiting ungulates that serve as intermediate hosts. Thus, alternative prey can affect both predator-prey and host-parasite interactions and potentially affect food web dynamics. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Rapid evolution of hosts begets species diversity at the cost of intraspecific diversity

PubMed Central

Frickel, Jens; Theodosiou, Loukas

2017-01-01

Ecosystems are complex food webs in which multiple species interact and ecological and evolutionary processes continuously shape populations and communities. Previous studies on eco-evolutionary dynamics have shown that the presence of intraspecific diversity affects community structure and function, and that eco-evolutionary feedback dynamics can be an important driver for its maintenance. Within communities, feedbacks are, however, often indirect, and they can feed back over many generations. Here, we studied eco-evolutionary feedbacks in evolving communities over many generations and compared two-species systems (virus–host and prey–predator) with a more complex three-species system (virus–host–predator). Both indirect density- and trait-mediated effects drove the dynamics in the complex system, where host–virus coevolution facilitated coexistence of predator and virus, and where coexistence, in return, lowered intraspecific diversity of the host population. Furthermore, ecological and evolutionary dynamics were significantly altered in the three-species system compared with the two-species systems. We found that the predator slowed host–virus coevolution in the complex system and that the virus’ effect on the overall population dynamics was negligible when the three species coexisted. Overall, we show that a detailed understanding of the mechanism driving eco-evolutionary feedback dynamics is necessary for explaining trait and species diversity in communities, even in communities with only three species. PMID:28973943

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Population dynamics of pond zooplankton II Daphnia ambigua Scourfield

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angino, E.E.; Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.

1973-01-01

Calcium was the most important of 27 environmental components affecting density for a 50 week period. Simultaneous stepwise regression accounted for more variability in total number/1 and in the number of ovigerous females/1 than did any of the lag analyses; 1-week lag accounted for the greatest amount of variability in clutch size. Total number and clutch size were little affected by measures of food. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk b.v. Publishers.

Electron-nuclear corellations for photoinduced dynamics in molecular dimers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilin, Dmitri S.; Pereversev, Yuryi V.; Prezhdo, Oleg V.

2003-03-01

Ultrafast photoinduced dynamics of electronic excitation in molecular dimers is drastically affected by dynamic reorganization of of inter- and intra- molecular nuclear configuration modelled by quantized nuclear degree of freedom [1]. The dynamics of the electronic population and nuclear coherence is analyzed with help of both numerical solution of the chain of coupled differential equations for mean coordinate, population inversion, electronic-vibrational correlation etc.[2] and by propagating the Gaussian wavepackets in relevant adiabatic potentials. Intriguing results were obtained in the approximation of small energy difference and small change of nuclear equilibrium configuration for excited electronic states. In the limiting case of resonance between electronic states energy difference and frequency of the nuclear mode these results have been justified by comparison to exactly solvable Jaynes-Cummings model. It has been found that the photoinduced processes in dimer are arranged according to their time scales:(i) fast scale of nuclear motion,(ii) intermediate scale of dynamical redistribution of electronic population between excited states as well as growth and dynamics of electronic -nuclear correlation,(iii) slow scale of electronic population approaching to the quasiequilibrium distribution, decay of electronic-nuclear correlation, and diminishing the amplitude of mean coordinate oscillations, accompanied by essential growth of the nuclear coordinate dispersion associated with the overall nuclear wavepacket width. Demonstrated quantum-relaxational features of photoinduced vibronic dinamical processess in molecular dimers are obtained by simple method, applicable to large biological systems with many degrees of freedom. [1] J. A. Cina, D. S. Kilin, T. S. Humble, J. Chem. Phys. (2003) in press. [2] O. V. Prezhdo, J. Chem. Phys. 117, 2995 (2002).

Population dynamics of king eiders breeding in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Powell, Abby N.

2012-01-01

The North American population of king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) has declined by more than 50% since the late 1970s for unknown reasons. King eiders spend most of their lives in remote areas, forcing managers to make regulatory and conservation decisions based on very little information. We incorporated available published estimates of vital rates with new estimates to build a female, stage-based matrix population model for king eiders and examine the processes underlying population dynamics of king eiders breeding at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, on the coastal plain of northern Alaska and wintering around the Bering Sea (2001–2010). We predicted a decreasing population (λ = 0.981, 95% CI: 0.978–0.985), and that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival (sensitivity = 0.92). Low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity (variation in ducking survival accounted for 66% of retrospective variation in λ). Adult survival was high (0.94) and invariant (σ = 0.0002, 95% CI: 0.0000–0.0007); however, catastrophic events could have a major impact and we need to consider how to mitigate and manage threats to adult survival. A hypothetical oil spill affecting breeding females in a primary spring staging area resulted in a severe population decline; although, transient population dynamics were relatively stable. However, if no catastrophic events occur, the more variable reproductive parameters (duckling and nest survival) may be more responsive to management actions.

Risky business: The impact of climate and climate variability on human population dynamics in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Ariane; Kageyama, Masa; Latombe, Guilllaume; Fasel, Marc; Vrac, Mathieu; Ramstein, Gilles; James, Patrick M. A.

2017-05-01

The extent to which climate change has affected the course of human evolution is an enduring question. The ability to maintain spatially extensive social networks and a fluid social structure allows human foragers to ;map onto; the landscape, mitigating the impact of ecological risk and conferring resilience. But what are the limits of resilience and to which environmental variables are foraging populations sensitive? We address this question by testing the impact of a suite of environmental variables, including climate variability, on the distribution of human populations in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Climate variability affects the distribution of plant and animal resources unpredictably, creating an element of risk for foragers for whom mobility comes at a cost. We produce a model of habitat suitability that allows us to generate predictions about the probable distribution of human populations and discuss the implications of these predictions for the structure of human populations and their social and cultural evolution during the LGM.

Farm-scale variation of soil quality indices and association with edaphic properties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil organisms are indicators of dynamic soil quality because their community structure and population density are sensitive to management changes. However, edaphic properties can also affect soil organisms and high spatial variability can confound their utility for soil evaluation. In the present...

Dynamical responses to external stimuli for both cases of excitatory and inhibitory synchronization in a complex neuronal network.

PubMed

Kim, Sang-Yoon; Lim, Woochang

2017-10-01

For studying how dynamical responses to external stimuli depend on the synaptic-coupling type, we consider two types of excitatory and inhibitory synchronization (i.e., synchronization via synaptic excitation and inhibition) in complex small-world networks of excitatory regular spiking (RS) pyramidal neurons and inhibitory fast spiking (FS) interneurons. For both cases of excitatory and inhibitory synchronization, effects of synaptic couplings on dynamical responses to external time-periodic stimuli S ( t ) (applied to a fraction of neurons) are investigated by varying the driving amplitude A of S ( t ). Stimulated neurons are phase-locked to external stimuli for both cases of excitatory and inhibitory couplings. On the other hand, the stimulation effect on non-stimulated neurons depends on the type of synaptic coupling. The external stimulus S ( t ) makes a constructive effect on excitatory non-stimulated RS neurons (i.e., it causes external phase lockings in the non-stimulated sub-population), while S ( t ) makes a destructive effect on inhibitory non-stimulated FS interneurons (i.e., it breaks up original inhibitory synchronization in the non-stimulated sub-population). As results of these different effects of S ( t ), the type and degree of dynamical response (e.g., synchronization enhancement or suppression), characterized by the dynamical response factor [Formula: see text] (given by the ratio of synchronization degree in the presence and absence of stimulus), are found to vary in a distinctly different way, depending on the synaptic-coupling type. Furthermore, we also measure the matching degree between the dynamics of the two sub-populations of stimulated and non-stimulated neurons in terms of a "cross-correlation" measure [Formula: see text]. With increasing A , based on [Formula: see text], we discuss the cross-correlations between the two sub-populations, affecting the dynamical responses to S ( t ).

Dynamic complexities in a pest control model with birth pulse and harvesting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, A.; Gakkhar, S.

2016-04-01

In this paper, an impulsive model is discussed for an integrated pest management approach comprising of chemical and mechanical controls. The pesticides and harvesting are used to control the stage-structured pest population. The mature pest give birth to immature pest in pulses at regular intervals. The pest is controlled by spraying chemical pesticides affecting immature as well as mature pest. The harvesting of both immature and mature pest further reduce the pest population. The discrete dynamical system obtained from stroboscopic map is analyzed. The threshold conditions for stability of pest-free state as well as non-trivial period-1 solution is obtained. The effect of pesticide spray timing and harvesting on immature as well as mature pest are shown. Finally, by numerical simulation with MATLAB, the dynamical behaviors of the model is found to be complex. Above the threshold level there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations leading to chaotic dynamics. Route to chaos is found to be period-doubling. Period halving bifurcations are also observed.

Early Successional Microhabitats Allow the Persistence of Endangered Plants in Coastal Sand Dunes

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Many species are adapted to disturbance and occur within dynamic, mosaic landscapes that contain early and late successional microhabitats. Human modification of disturbance regimes alters the availability of microhabitats and may affect the viability of species in these ecosystems. Because restoring historical disturbance regimes is typically expensive and requires action at large spatial scales, such restoration projects must be justified by linking the persistence of species with successional microhabitats. Coastal sand dune ecosystems worldwide are characterized by their endemic biodiversity and frequent disturbance. Dune-stabilizing invasive plants alter successional dynamics and may threaten species in these ecosystems. We examined the distribution and population dynamics of two federally endangered plant species, the annual Layia carnosa and the perennial Lupinus tidestromii, within a dune ecosystem in northern California, USA. We parameterized a matrix population model for L. tidestromii and examined the magnitude by which the successional stage of the habitat (early or late) influenced population dynamics. Both species had higher frequencies and L. tidestromii had higher frequency of seedlings in early successional habitats. Lupinus tidestromii plants in early successional microhabitats had higher projected rates of population growth than those associated with stabilized, late successional habitats, due primarily to higher rates of recruitment in early successional microhabitats. These results support the idea that restoration of disturbance is critical in historically dynamic landscapes. Our results suggest that large-scale restorations are necessary to allow persistence of the endemic plant species that characterize these ecosystems. PMID:25835390

Primer selection impacts specific population abundances but not community dynamics in a monthly time-series 16S rRNA gene amplicon analysis of coastal marine bacterioplankton.

PubMed

Wear, Emma K; Wilbanks, Elizabeth G; Nelson, Craig E; Carlson, Craig A

2018-03-09

Primers targeting the 16S small subunit ribosomal RNA marker gene, used to characterize bacterial and archaeal communities, have recently been re-evaluated for marine planktonic habitats. To investigate whether primer selection affects the ecological interpretation of bacterioplankton populations and community dynamics, amplicon sequencing with four primer sets targeting several hypervariable regions of the 16S rRNA gene was conducted on both mock communities constructed from cloned 16S rRNA genes and a time-series of DNA samples from the temperate coastal Santa Barbara Channel. Ecological interpretations of community structure (delineation of depth and seasonality, correlations with environmental factors) were similar across primer sets, while population dynamics varied. We observed substantial differences in relative abundances of taxa known to be poorly resolved by some primer sets, such as Thaumarchaeota and SAR11, and unexpected taxa including Roseobacter clades. Though the magnitude of relative abundances of common OTUs differed between primer sets, the relative abundances of the OTUs were nonetheless strongly correlated. We do not endorse one primer set but rather enumerate strengths and weaknesses to facilitate selection appropriate to a system or experimental goal. While 16S rRNA gene primer bias suggests caution in assessing quantitative population dynamics, community dynamics appear robust across studies using different primers. © 2018 The Authors. Environmental Microbiology published by Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dynamics of a feline virus with two transmission modes within exponentially growing host populations.

PubMed Central

Berthier, K; Langlais, M; Auger, P; Pontier, D

2000-01-01

Feline panleucopenia virus (FPLV) was introduced in 1977 on Marion Island (in the southern Indian Ocean) with the aim of eradicating the cat population and provoked a huge decrease in the host population within six years. The virus can be transmitted either directly through contacts between infected and healthy cats or indirectly between a healthy cat and the contaminated environment: a specific feature of the virus is its high rate of survival outside the host. In this paper, a model was designed in order to take these two modes of transmission into account. The results showed that a mass-action incidence assumption was more appropriate than a proportionate mixing one in describing the dynamics of direct transmission. Under certain conditions the virus was able to control the host population at a low density. The indirect transmission acted as a reservoir supplying the host population with a low but sufficient density of infected individuals which allowed the virus to persist. The dynamics of the infection were more affected by the demographic parameters of the healthy hosts than by the epidemiological ones. Thus, demographic parameters should be precisely measured in field studies in order to obtain accurate predictions. The predicted results of our model were in good agreement with observations. PMID:11416908

Accidental release of chlorine in Chicago: Coupling of an exposure model with a Computational Fluid Dynamics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, E. Y.; Colman Lerner, J. E.; Porta, A.; Jacovkis, P. M.

2013-01-01

The adverse health effects of the release of hazardous substances into the atmosphere continue being a matter of concern, especially in densely populated urban regions. Emergency responders need to have estimates of these adverse health effects in the local population to aid planning, emergency response, and recovery efforts. For this purpose, models that predict the transport and dispersion of hazardous materials are as necessary as those that estimate the adverse health effects in the population. In this paper, we present the results obtained by coupling a Computational Fluid Dynamics model, FLACS (FLame ACceleration Simulator), with an exposure model, DDC (Damage Differential Coupling). This coupled model system is applied to a scenario of hypothetical release of chlorine with obstacles, such as buildings, and the results show how it is capable of predicting the atmospheric dispersion of hazardous chemicals, and the adverse health effects in the exposed population, to support decision makers both in charge of emergency planning and in charge of real-time response. The results obtained show how knowing the influence of obstacles in the trajectory of the toxic cloud and in the diffusion of the pollutants transported, and obtaining dynamic information of the potentially affected population and of associated symptoms, contribute to improve the planning of the protection and response measures.

Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1979-01-01

The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

Evaluating mortality rates with a novel integrated framework for nonmonogamous species.

PubMed

Tenan, Simone; Iemma, Aaron; Bragalanti, Natalia; Pedrini, Paolo; De Barba, Marta; Randi, Ettore; Groff, Claudio; Genovart, Meritxell

2016-12-01

The conservation of wildlife requires management based on quantitative evidence, and especially for large carnivores, unraveling cause-specific mortalities and understanding their impact on population dynamics is crucial. Acquiring this knowledge is challenging because it is difficult to obtain robust long-term data sets on endangered populations and, usually, data are collected through diverse sampling strategies. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a way to integrate data generated through different processes. However, IPMs are female-based models that cannot account for mate availability, and this feature limits their applicability to monogamous species only. We extended classical IPMs to a two-sex framework that allows investigation of population dynamics and quantification of cause-specific mortality rates in nonmonogamous species. We illustrated our approach by simultaneously modeling different types of data from a reintroduced, unhunted brown bear (Ursus arctos) population living in an area with a dense human population. In a population mainly driven by adult survival, we estimated that on average 11% of cubs and 61% of adults died from human-related causes. Although the population is currently not at risk, adult survival and thus population dynamics are driven by anthropogenic mortality. Given the recent increase of human-bear conflicts in the area, removal of individuals for management purposes and through poaching may increase, reversing the positive population growth rate. Our approach can be generalized to other species affected by cause-specific mortality and will be useful to inform conservation decisions for other nonmonogamous species, such as most large carnivores, for which data are scarce and diverse and thus data integration is highly desirable. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Mammal population regulation, keystone processes and ecosystem dynamics.

PubMed Central

Sinclair, A R E

2003-01-01

The theory of regulation in animal populations is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of populations, the causes of mortality and how natural selection shapes the life history of species. In mammals, the great range in body size allows us to see how allometric relationships affect the mode of regulation. Resource limitation is the fundamental cause of regulation. Top-down limitation through predators is determined by four factors: (i). body size; (ii). the diversity of predators and prey in the system; (iii). whether prey are resident or migratory; and (iv). the presence of alternative prey for predators. Body size in mammals has two important consequences. First, mammals, particularly large species, can act as keystones that determine the diversity of an ecosystem. I show how keystone processes can, in principle, be measured using the example of the wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem. Second, mammals act as ecological landscapers by altering vegetation succession. Mammals alter physical structure, ecological function and species diversity in most terrestrial biomes. In general, there is a close interaction between allometry, population regulation, life history and ecosystem dynamics. These relationships are relevant to applied aspects of conservation and pest management. PMID:14561329

A Biologically Informed, Mechanistic Model of Desert Shrub Population Dynamics Bearing on Arid Landscape Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worman, Stacey; Furbish, David; Fathel, Siobhan

2014-05-01

In arid landscapes, desert shrubs individually and collectively modify how sediment is transported (e.g by wind, overland-flow, and rain-splash). Addressing how desert shrubs modify landscapes on geomorphic timescales therefore necessitates spanning multiple shrub lifetimes and accounting for how processes affecting shrub dynamics on these longer timescales (e.g. fire, grazing, drought, and climate change) may in turn impact sediment transport. To fulfill this need, we present a mechanistic model of the spatiotemporal dynamics of a desert-shrub population that uses a simple accounting framework and tracks individual shrubs as they enter, age, and exit the population (via recruitment, growth, and mortality). Our model is novel insomuch as it (1) features a strong biophysical foundation, (2) mimics well-documented aspects of how shrub populations respond to changes in precipitation, and (3) possesses the process granularity appropriate for use in geomorphic simulations. In a complimentary abstract (Fathel et al. 2014), we demonstrate the potential of this biological model by coupling it to a physical model of rain-splash sediment transport: We mechanistically reproduce the empirical observation that the erosion rate of a hillslope decreases as its vegetation coverage increases and we predict erosion rates under different climate-change scenarios.

Impact of environmental colored noise in single-species population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spanio, Tommaso; Hidalgo, Jorge; Muñoz, Miguel A.

2017-10-01

Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental role in the way living systems adapt and respond to it. A proper mathematical approach to understand population dynamics, thus, requires approaches more refined than, e.g., simple white-noise approximations. To shed further light onto this problem, in this paper we propose a unifying framework based on different analytical and numerical tools available to deal with "colored" environmental noise. In particular, we employ a "unified colored noise approximation" to map the original problem into an effective one with white noise, and then we apply a standard path integral approach to gain analytical understanding. For the sake of specificity, we present our approach using as a guideline a variation of the contact process—which can also be seen as a birth-death process of the Malthus-Verhulst class—where the propagation or birth rate varies stochastically in time. Our approach allows us to tackle in a systematic manner some of the relevant questions concerning population dynamics under environmental variability, such as determining the stationary population density, establishing the conditions under which a population may become extinct, and estimating extinction times. We focus on the emerging phase diagram and its possible phase transitions, underlying how these are affected by the presence of environmental noise time-correlations.

Dynamic occupancy modelling reveals a hierarchy of competition among fishers, grey foxes and ringtails.

PubMed

Green, David S; Matthews, Sean M; Swiers, Robert C; Callas, Richard L; Scott Yaeger, J; Farber, Stuart L; Schwartz, Michael K; Powell, Roger A

2018-05-01

Determining how species coexist is critical for understanding functional diversity, niche partitioning and interspecific interactions. Identifying the direct and indirect interactions among sympatric carnivores that enable their coexistence is particularly important to elucidate because they are integral for maintaining ecosystem function. We studied the effects of removing nine fishers (Pekania pennanti) on their population dynamics and used this perturbation to elucidate the interspecific interactions among fishers, grey foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) and ringtails (Bassariscus astutus). Grey foxes (family: Canidae) are likely to compete with fishers due to their similar body sizes and dietary overlap, and ringtails (family: Procyonidae), like fishers, are semi-arboreal species of conservation concern. We used spatial capture-recapture to investigate fisher population numbers and dynamic occupancy models that incorporated interspecific interactions to investigate the effects members of these species had on the colonization and persistence of each other's site occupancy. The fisher population showed no change in density for up to 3 years following the removals of fishers for translocations. In contrast, fisher site occupancy decreased in the years immediately following the translocations. During this same time period, site occupancy by grey foxes increased and remained elevated through the end of the study. We found a complicated hierarchy among fishers, foxes and ringtails. Fishers affected grey fox site persistence negatively but had a positive effect on their colonization. Foxes had a positive effect on ringtail site colonization. Thus, fishers were the dominant small carnivore where present and negatively affected foxes directly and ringtails indirectly. Coexistence among the small carnivores we studied appears to reflect dynamic spatial partitioning. Conservation and management efforts should investigate how intraguild interactions may influence the recolonization of carnivores to previously occupied landscapes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Equilibrium analysis of a yellow Fever dynamical model with vaccination.

PubMed

Martorano Raimundo, Silvia; Amaku, Marcos; Massad, Eduardo

2015-01-01

We propose an equilibrium analysis of a dynamical model of yellow fever transmission in the presence of a vaccine. The model considers both human and vector populations. We found thresholds parameters that affect the development of the disease and the infectious status of the human population in the presence of a vaccine whose protection may wane over time. In particular, we derived a threshold vaccination rate, above which the disease would be eradicated from the human population. We show that if the mortality rate of the mosquitoes is greater than a given threshold, then the disease is naturally (without intervention) eradicated from the population. In contrast, if the mortality rate of the mosquitoes is less than that threshold, then the disease is eradicated from the populations only when the growing rate of humans is less than another threshold; otherwise, the disease is eradicated only if the reproduction number of the infection after vaccination is less than 1. When this reproduction number is greater than 1, the disease will be eradicated from the human population if the vaccination rate is greater than a given threshold; otherwise, the disease will establish itself among humans, reaching a stable endemic equilibrium. The analysis presented in this paper can be useful, both to the better understanding of the disease dynamics and also for the planning of vaccination strategies.

Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

1998-01-01

The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

Modeling mechanical interactions in growing populations of rod-shaped bacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkle, James J.; Igoshin, Oleg A.; Bennett, Matthew R.; Josić, Krešimir; Ott, William

2017-10-01

Advances in synthetic biology allow us to engineer bacterial collectives with pre-specified characteristics. However, the behavior of these collectives is difficult to understand, as cellular growth and division as well as extra-cellular fluid flow lead to complex, changing arrangements of cells within the population. To rationally engineer and control the behavior of cell collectives we need theoretical and computational tools to understand their emergent spatiotemporal dynamics. Here, we present an agent-based model that allows growing cells to detect and respond to mechanical interactions. Crucially, our model couples the dynamics of cell growth to the cell’s environment: Mechanical constraints can affect cellular growth rate and a cell may alter its behavior in response to these constraints. This coupling links the mechanical forces that influence cell growth and emergent behaviors in cell assemblies. We illustrate our approach by showing how mechanical interactions can impact the dynamics of bacterial collectives growing in microfluidic traps.

Vector-virus interactions and transmission dynamics of West Nile virus.

PubMed

Ciota, Alexander T; Kramer, Laura D

2013-12-09

West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus; Flaviviridae) is the cause of the most widespread arthropod-borne viral disease in the world and the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease ever observed. Mosquito-borne outbreaks are influenced by intrinsic (e.g., vector and viral genetics, vector and host competence, vector life-history traits) and extrinsic (e.g., temperature, rainfall, human land use) factors that affect virus activity and mosquito biology in complex ways. The concept of vectorial capacity integrates these factors to address interactions of the virus with the arthropod host, leading to a clearer understanding of their complex interrelationships, how they affect transmission of vector-borne disease, and how they impact human health. Vertebrate factors including host competence, population dynamics, and immune status also affect transmission dynamics. The complexity of these interactions are further exacerbated by the fact that not only can divergent hosts differentially alter the virus, but the virus also can affect both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts in ways that significantly alter patterns of virus transmission. This chapter concentrates on selected components of the virus-vector-vertebrate interrelationship, focusing specifically on how interactions between vector, virus, and environment shape the patterns and intensity of WNV transmission.

Vector-Virus Interactions and Transmission Dynamics of West Nile Virus

PubMed Central

Ciota, Alexander T.; Kramer, Laura D.

2013-01-01

West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus; Flaviviridae) is the cause of the most widespread arthropod-borne viral disease in the world and the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease ever observed. Mosquito-borne outbreaks are influenced by intrinsic (e.g., vector and viral genetics, vector and host competence, vector life-history traits) and extrinsic (e.g., temperature, rainfall, human land use) factors that affect virus activity and mosquito biology in complex ways. The concept of vectorial capacity integrates these factors to address interactions of the virus with the arthropod host, leading to a clearer understanding of their complex interrelationships, how they affect transmission of vector-borne disease, and how they impact human health. Vertebrate factors including host competence, population dynamics, and immune status also affect transmission dynamics. The complexity of these interactions are further exacerbated by the fact that not only can divergent hosts differentially alter the virus, but the virus also can affect both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts in ways that significantly alter patterns of virus transmission. This chapter concentrates on selected components of the virus-vector-vertebrate interrelationship, focusing specifically on how interactions between vector, virus, and environment shape the patterns and intensity of WNV transmission. PMID:24351794

Tick-Borne Transmission of Two Genetically Distinct Anaplasma marginale Strains following Superinfection of the Mammalian Reservoir Host

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Strain superinfection affects the dynamics of epidemiological spread of pathogens through a host population. Superinfection has recently been shown to occur for genetically distinct strains of the tick-borne pathogen Anaplasma marginale that encode distinctly different surface protein variants. Supe...

Community Colleges: Competing for Changing Clientele.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terry, John E.

Population, economic, and technological changes will all affect the ways in which Canadian community colleges operate. The rise in the number of seniors, a slowing birth rate, and the aging of the "baby boomers" have influenced the demographics of college clientele. The dynamics of the global marketplace require a highly educated and…

Spatio-temporal dynamics of Fusarium head blight and Trichothecene toxin types in Canada

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In many parts of the world Fusarium graminearum is the primary causal agent of Fusarium head blight (FHB), a disease of cereal crops that adversely affects crop yield, food safety, and animal health. We previously demonstrated population structure associated with differences in trichothecene toxin t...

A Coevolutionary Arms Race: Understanding Plant-Herbivore Interactions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Becklin, Katie M.

2008-01-01

Plants and insects share a long evolutionary history characterized by relationships that affect individual, population, and community dynamics. Plant-herbivore interactions are a prominent feature of this evolutionary history; it is by plant-herbivore interactions that energy is transferred from primary producers to the rest of the food web. Not…

Effects of flour conditioning on cannibalism of T. castaneum eggs and pupae

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cannibalism is a very important factor regulating population dynamics of the red flour beetle. After several days of feeding, the flour becomes conditioned by the beetles, which can affect rates of cannibalism. Flour conditioning is caused by an accumulation of feces, pheromones, and ethylquinone, w...

Controlling vector-borne disease and adapting to climate change with novel research on disease forecasting to target new vector control materials and technologies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Population growth, frontier agricultural expansion, and urbanization transform the landscape and the surrounding ecosystem, affecting climate and interactions between animals and humans, and significantly influencing the transmission dynamics and geographic distribution of malaria, dengue and other ...

Adult Demography and Larval Processes in Coastal Benthic Populations: Intertidal Barnacles in Southern California and Baja California

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-09-01

mechanism for near-shore concentration and estuarine recruitment of post-larval Penaeus plebejus Hess ( Decapoda , Penaeidae). Estuarine, Coastal and...the physical The dynamics of coastal populations is highly processes that are likely to affect the distribution dependent on the mechanisms and...help. I was lucky to land on a lab where, depending on the lunar phase, time of year, and who knows what other environmental variables, I would find a

Effects of water temperature on breeding phenology, growth, and metamorphosis of foothill yellow-legged frogs (Rana boylii): a case study of the regulated mainstem and unregulated tributaries of California's Trinity River

Treesearch

Clara Wheeler; James Bettaso; Donald Ashton; Hartwell Welsh

2014-01-01

Many riverine organisms are well adapted to seasonally dynamic environments, but extreme changes in flow and thermal regimes can threaten sustainability of their populations in regulated rivers. Altered thermal regimes may limit recruitment to populations by shifting the timing of breeding activities and affecting the growth and development of early life stages. Stream...

Corn rootworms (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in space and time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Yong-Lak

Spatial dispersion is a main characteristic of insect populations. Dispersion pattern provides useful information for developing effective sampling and scouting programs because it affects sampling accuracy, efficiency, and precision. Insect dispersion, however, is dynamic in space and time and largely dependent upon interactions among insect, plant and environmental factors. This study investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of corn rootworm dispersion at different spatial scales by using the global positioning system, the geographic information system, and geostatistics. Egg dispersion pattern was random or uniform in 8-ha cornfields, but could be aggregated at a smaller scale. Larval dispersion pattern was aggregated regardless of spatial scales used in this study. Soil moisture positively affected corn rootworm egg and larval dispersions. Adult dispersion tended to be aggregated during peak population period and random or uniform early and late in the season and corn plant phenology was a major factor to determine dispersion patterns. The dispersion pattern of root injury by corn rootworm larval feeding was aggregated and the degree of aggregation increased as the root injury increased within the range of root injury observed in microscale study. Between-year relationships in dispersion among eggs, larvae, adult, and environment provided a strategy that could predict potential root damage the subsequent year. The best prediction map for the subsequent year's potential root damage was the dispersion maps of adults during population peaked in the cornfield. The prediction map was used to develop site-specific pest management that can reduce chemical input and increase control efficiency by controlling pests only where management is needed. This study demonstrated the spatio-temporal dynamics of insect population and spatial interactions among insects, plants, and environment.

Social and spatial effects on genetic variation between foraging flocks in a wild bird population.

PubMed

Radersma, Reinder; Garroway, Colin J; Santure, Anna W; de Cauwer, Isabelle; Farine, Damien R; Slate, Jon; Sheldon, Ben C

2017-10-01

Social interactions are rarely random. In some instances, animals exhibit homophily or heterophily, the tendency to interact with similar or dissimilar conspecifics, respectively. Genetic homophily and heterophily influence the evolutionary dynamics of populations, because they potentially affect sexual and social selection. Here, we investigate the link between social interactions and allele frequencies in foraging flocks of great tits (Parus major) over three consecutive years. We constructed co-occurrence networks which explicitly described the splitting and merging of 85,602 flocks through time (fission-fusion dynamics), at 60 feeding sites. Of the 1,711 birds in those flocks, we genotyped 962 individuals at 4,701 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). By combining genomewide genotyping with repeated field observations of the same individuals, we were able to investigate links between social structure and allele frequencies at a much finer scale than was previously possible. We explicitly accounted for potential spatial effects underlying genetic structure at the population level. We modelled social structure and spatial configuration of great tit fission-fusion dynamics with eigenvector maps. Variance partitioning revealed that allele frequencies were strongly affected by group fidelity (explaining 27%-45% of variance) as individuals tended to maintain associations with the same conspecifics. These conspecifics were genetically more dissimilar than expected, shown by genomewide heterophily for pure social (i.e., space-independent) grouping preferences. Genomewide homophily was linked to spatial configuration, indicating spatial segregation of genotypes. We did not find evidence for homophily or heterophily for putative socially relevant candidate genes or any other SNP markers. Together, these results demonstrate the importance of distinguishing social and spatial processes in determining population structure. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relative host body condition and food availability influence epidemic dynamics: a Poecilia reticulata-Gyrodactylus turnbulli host-parasite model.

PubMed

Tadiri, Christina P; Dargent, Felipe; Scott, Marilyn E

2013-03-01

Understanding disease transmission is important to species management and human health. Host body condition, nutrition and disease susceptibility interact in a complex manner, and while the individual effects of these variables are well known, our understanding of how they interact and translate to population dynamics is limited. Our objective was to determine whether host relative body condition influences epidemic dynamics, and how this relationship is affected by food availability. Poecilia reticulata (guppies) of roughly similar size were selected and assembled randomly into populations of 10 guppies assigned to 3 different food availability treatments, and the relative condition index (Kn) of each fish was calculated. We infected 1 individual per group ('source' fish) with Gyrodactyus turnbulli and counted parasites on each fish every other day for 10 days. Epidemic parameters for each population were analysed using generalized linear models. High host Kn-particularly that of the 'source' fish-exerted a positive effect on incidence, peak parasite burden, and the degree of parasite aggregation. Low food availability increased the strength of the associations with peak burden and aggregation. Our findings suggest that host Kn and food availability interact to influence epidemic dynamics, and that the condition of the individual that brings the parasite into the host population has a profound impact on the spread of infection.

Century-scale Changes in Environmental Synchrony and Variability and their Effects on Populations of Birds and Reproduction of Trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koenig, W.

2016-12-01

The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics. Thus far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in environmental spatial synchrony-the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape-or environmental variability, despite the importance of these factors as drivers of population rescue and extinction and reproductive dynamics of both animal and plant populations. We quantified spatial synchrony of widespread North American wintering birds species using Audubon Christmas Bird Counts over the past 50 years and seed set variability (mast fruiting) among trees over the past century and found that both spatial synchrony of the birds and seed set variability have significantly increased over these time periods. The first of these results was mirrored by significant increases in spatial synchrony of mean maximum air temperature across North America, primarily during the summer, while the second is consistent with the hypothesis that climate change is resulting in greater seed set variability. These findings suggest the potential for temporal changes in envioronmental synchrony and variability to be affecting a wide range of ecological phenomena by influencing the probability of population rescue and extinction and by affecting ecosystem processes that rely on the resource pulses provided by mast fruiting plants.

The Conundrum of Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization and the Urban Heat Island Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2011-01-01

The twenty-first century is the first urban century according to the United Nations Development Program. The focus on cities reflects awareness of the growing percentage of the world's population that lives in urban areas. In 2000, approximately 3 billion people representing about 40% of the global population resided in urban areas. The United Nations estimates that by 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in urban areas. As a consequence, the number of megacities (those cities with populations of 10 million inhabitants or more) will increase by 100 by 2025. Thus, there is a critical need to understand the spatial growth of urban areas and what the impacts are on the environment. Moreover, there is a critical need to assess how under global climate change, cities will affect the local, regional, and even global climate. As urban areas increase in size, it is anticipated there will be a concomitant growth of the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI), and the attributes that are related to its spatial and temporal dynamics. Therefore, how climate change, including the dynamics of the UHI, will affect the urban environment, must be explored to help mitigate potential impacts on the environment (e.g., air quality, heat stress, vectorborne disease) and on human health and well being, to develop adaptation schemes to cope with these impacts.

Effects of climate warming and prolonged snow cover on phenology of the early life history stages of four alpine herbs on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Wang, Guoyan; Baskin, Carol C; Baskin, Jerry M; Yang, Xuejun; Liu, Guofang; Ye, Xuehua; Zhang, Xinshi; Huang, Zhenying

2018-06-21

Much research has focused on plant responses to ongoing climate change, but there is relatively little information about how climate change will affect the early plant life history stages. Understanding how global warming and changes in winter snow pattern will affect seed germination and seedling establishment is crucial for predicting future alpine population and vegetation dynamics. In a 2-year study, we tested how warming and alteration in the snowmelt regime, both in isolation and combination, influence seedling emergence phenology, first-year growth, biomass allocation, and survival of four native alpine perennial herbs on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Warming promoted seedling emergence phenology of all four species and biomass per plant of two species but reduced seedling survival of three species. Prolonged snow cover partly mediated the affects of warming on Primula alpicola (survival and biomass), Pedicularis fletcheri (phenology, biomass, and root:shoot ratio) and Meconopsis integrifolia (survival). For the narrowly distributed species M. racemosa, seedling growth was additively decreased by warming and prolonged snow cover. Both warming and alteration of the snow cover regime can influence plant recruitment by affecting seedling phenology, growth, and survival, and the effects are largely species-specific. Thus, climate change is likely to affect population dynamics and community structure of the alpine ecosystem. This is the first experimental demonstration of the phenological advancement of seedling emergence in the field by simulated climate warming. © 2018 Botanical Society of America.

Analysis of allelic expression patterns in clonal somatic cells by single-cell RNA-seq

PubMed Central

Ramsköld, Daniel; Deng, Qiaolin; Johnsson, Per; Michaëlsson, Jakob; Frisén, Jonas; Sandberg, Rickard

2016-01-01

Cellular heterogeneity can emerge from the expression of only one parental allele. However, it has remained controversial whether, or to what degree, random monoallelic expression of autosomal genes (aRME) is mitotically inherited (clonal) or stochastic (dynamic) in somatic cells, particularly in vivo. Here, we used allele-sensitive single-cell RNA-seq on clonal primary mouse fibroblasts and in vivo human CD8+ T-cells to dissect clonal and dynamic monoallelic expression patterns. Dynamic aRME affected a considerable portion of the cells’ transcriptomes, with levels dependent on the cells’ transcriptional activity. Importantly, clonal aRME was detected but was surprisingly scarce (<1% of genes) and affected mainly the most low-expressed genes. Consequently, the overwhelming portion of aRME occurs transiently within individual cells and patterns of aRME are thus primarily scattered throughout somatic cell populations rather than, as previously hypothesized, confined to patches of clonally related cells. PMID:27668657

Analysis of allelic expression patterns in clonal somatic cells by single-cell RNA-seq.

PubMed

Reinius, Björn; Mold, Jeff E; Ramsköld, Daniel; Deng, Qiaolin; Johnsson, Per; Michaëlsson, Jakob; Frisén, Jonas; Sandberg, Rickard

2016-11-01

Cellular heterogeneity can emerge from the expression of only one parental allele. However, it has remained controversial whether, or to what degree, random monoallelic expression of autosomal genes (aRME) is mitotically inherited (clonal) or stochastic (dynamic) in somatic cells, particularly in vivo. Here we used allele-sensitive single-cell RNA-seq on clonal primary mouse fibroblasts and freshly isolated human CD8 + T cells to dissect clonal and dynamic monoallelic expression patterns. Dynamic aRME affected a considerable portion of the cells' transcriptomes, with levels dependent on the cells' transcriptional activity. Notably, clonal aRME was detected, but it was surprisingly scarce (<1% of genes) and mainly affected the most weakly expressed genes. Consequently, the overwhelming majority of aRME occurs transiently within individual cells, and patterns of aRME are thus primarily scattered throughout somatic cell populations rather than, as previously hypothesized, confined to patches of clonally related cells.

A Simulation Environment for the Dynamic Evaluation of Disaster Preparedness Policies and Interventions

PubMed Central

Lewis, Bryan; Swarup, Samarth; Bisset, Keith; Eubank, Stephen; Marathe, Madhav; Barrett, Chris

2013-01-01

Disasters affect a society at many levels. Simulation based studies often evaluate the effectiveness of one or two response policies in isolation and are unable to represent impact of the policies to coevolve with others. Similarly, most in-depth analyses are based on a static assessment of the “aftermath” rather than capturing dynamics. We have developed a data-centric simulation environment for applying a systems approach to a dynamic analysis of complex combinations of disaster responses. We analyze an improvised nuclear detonation in Washington DC with this environment. The simulated blast affects the transportation system, communications infrastructure, electrical power system, behaviors and motivations of population, and health status of survivors. The effectiveness of partially restoring wireless communications capacity is analyzed in concert with a range of other disaster response policies. Despite providing a limited increase in cell phone communication, overall health was improved. PMID:23903394

Fort Collins Science Center: Species and Habitats of Federal Interest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stevens, Patty

2004-01-01

Ecosystem changes directly affect a wide variety of plant and animal species, floral and faunal communities, and groups of species such as amphibians and grassland birds. Appropriate management of public lands plays a crucial role in the conservation and recovery of endangered species and can be a key element in preventing a species from being listed under the Endangered Species Act. The Species and Habitats of Federal Interest Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) conducts research on the ecology, habitat requirements, distribution and abundance, population dynamics, and genetics and systematics of many species facing threatened or endangered status or of special concern to resource management agencies. FORT scientists develop reintroduction and restoration techniques, technologies for monitoring populations, and novel methods to analyze data on population trends and habitat requirements. FORT expertise encompasses both traditional and specialized natural resource disciplines within wildlife biology, including population dynamics, animal behavior, plant and community ecology, inventory and monitoring, statistics and computer applications, conservation genetics, stable isotope analysis, and curatorial expertise.

Experimental evolution and the dynamics of genomic mutation rate modifiers.

PubMed

Raynes, Y; Sniegowski, P D

2014-11-01

Because genes that affect mutation rates are themselves subject to mutation, mutation rates can be influenced by natural selection and other evolutionary forces. The population genetics of mutation rate modifier alleles has been a subject of theoretical interest for many decades. Here, we review experimental contributions to our understanding of mutation rate modifier dynamics. Numerous evolution experiments have shown that mutator alleles (modifiers that elevate the genomic mutation rate) can readily rise to high frequencies via genetic hitchhiking in non-recombining microbial populations. Whereas these results certainly provide an explanatory framework for observations of sporadically high mutation rates in pathogenic microbes and in cancer lineages, it is nonetheless true that most natural populations have very low mutation rates. This raises the interesting question of how mutator hitchhiking is suppressed or its phenotypic effect reversed in natural populations. Very little experimental work has addressed this question; with this in mind, we identify some promising areas for future experimental investigation.

Memory and obesity affect the population dynamics of asexual freshwater planarians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkel, Jörn; Talbot, Jared; Schötz, Eva-Maria

2011-04-01

Asexual reproduction in multicellular organisms is a complex biophysical process that is not yet well understood quantitatively. Here, we report a detailed population study for the asexual freshwater planarian Schmidtea mediterranea, which can reproduce via transverse fission due to a large stem cell contingent. Our long-term observations of isolated non-interacting planarian populations reveal that the characteristic fission waiting time distributions for head and tail fragments differ significantly from each other. The stochastic fission dynamics of tail fragments exhibits non-negligible memory effects, implying that an accurate mathematical description of future data should be based on non-Markovian tree models. By comparing the effective growth of non-interacting planarian populations with those of self-interacting populations, we are able to quantify the influence of interactions between flatworms and physical conditions on the population growth. A surprising result is the non-monotonic relationship between effective population growth rate and nutrient supply: planarians exhibit a tendency to become 'obese' if the feeding frequency exceeds a critical level, resulting in a decreased reproduction activity. This suggests that these flatworms, which possess many genes homologous to those of humans, could become a new model system for studying dietary effects on reproduction and regeneration in multicellular organisms.

Dynamics of Bacterial Gene Regulatory Networks.

PubMed

Shis, David L; Bennett, Matthew R; Igoshin, Oleg A

2018-05-20

The ability of bacterial cells to adjust their gene expression program in response to environmental perturbation is often critical for their survival. Recent experimental advances allowing us to quantitatively record gene expression dynamics in single cells and in populations coupled with mathematical modeling enable mechanistic understanding on how these responses are shaped by the underlying regulatory networks. Here, we review how the combination of local and global factors affect dynamical responses of gene regulatory networks. Our goal is to discuss the general principles that allow extrapolation from a few model bacteria to less understood microbes. We emphasize that, in addition to well-studied effects of network architecture, network dynamics are shaped by global pleiotropic effects and cell physiology.

Structural and Functional Studies on the Fusion and Attachment Envelope Glycoproteins of Nipah Virus and Hendra Virus

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-01-01

epidemics, caused by Vibrio cholerae have been linked to specific seasons and biogeographical zones. In addition, the population dynamics of V. cholerae in...Climactic warming has directly affected the prevalence of RVFV by prolonging survival rates of the vector involved in disease transmission. 3 Cholera ...climate variability. The study of V. cholerae represents a model system of how climate change affects pathogens (2). Personal human behavior has

Differential impacts of wildfire on the population dynamics of an old-forest species.

PubMed

Rockweit, Jeremy T; Franklin, Alan B; Carlson, Peter C

2017-06-01

Ecological disturbances shape and maintain natural communities, but climate change and human land use can alter disturbance regimes and affect population persistence and vital rates in unpredictable ways. Species inhabiting landscapes shaped by wildfire have evolved mechanisms allowing them to persist under this dynamic disturbance type, which creates habitats of varying quality for these species. We utilized data from a 26-yr demographic study of northern spotted owls to analyze the influence of wildfire on apparent survival and recruitment rates. Wildfires occurred across different years and affected different spotted owl territories, which allowed us to implement a retrospective Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) analysis and model the potential effect of wildfire extent and severity. Our results indicated that mixed-severity fires that burned at predominantly low-severity had little effect on survival and recruitment while fires characterized by more medium to high burn severities negatively affected spotted owl survival, with varying effects on recruitment. Reduced survival and increased recruitment rates on some territories affected by medium to high severity fires suggested that post-fire habitat quality was reduced resulting in territories that were marginally capable of supporting owls. We hypothesize these territories may have represented "sinks" that were supported by nearby "source" territories in a spatially heterogeneous landscape created by the mixed-severity fire regime of the region. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Winter movement dynamics of Black Brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, Mark S.; Ward, David H.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Roser, John

2007-01-01

Although North American geese are managed based on their breeding distributions, the dynamics of those breeding populations may be affected by events that occur during the winter. Birth rates of capital breeding geese may be influenced by wintering conditions, mortality may be influenced by timing of migration and wintering distribution, and immigration and emigration among breeding populations may depend on winter movement and timing of pair formation. We examined factors affecting movements of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) among their primary wintering sites in Mexico and southern California, USA, (Mar 1998-Mar 2000) using capture-recapture models. Although brant exhibited high probability (>0.85) of monthly and annual fidelity to the wintering sites we sampled, we observed movements among all wintering sites. Movement probabilities both within and among winters were negatively related to distance between sites. We observed a higher probability both of southward movement between winters (Mar to Dec) and northward movement between months within winters. Between-winter movements were probably most strongly affected by spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality as we saw movement patterns consistent with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., La Niña and El Niño southern oscillation cycles). Month-to-month movements were related to migration patterns and may also have been affected by differences in habitat conditions among sites. Patterns of winter movements indicate that a network of wintering sites may be necessary for effective conservation of brant.

Winter movement dynamics of black brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, Mark S.; Ward, David H.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Roser, John

2007-01-01

Although North American geese are managed based on their breeding distributions, the dynamics of those breeding populations may be affected by events that occur during the winter. Birth rates of capital breeding geese may be influenced by wintering conditions, mortality may be influenced by timing of migration and wintering distribution, and immigration and emigration among breeding populations may depend on winter movement and timing of pair formation. We examined factors affecting movements of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) among their primary wintering sites in Mexico and southern California, USA, (Mar 1998–Mar 2000) using capture–recapture models. Although brant exhibited high probability (>0.85) of monthly and annual fidelity to the wintering sites we sampled, we observed movements among all wintering sites. Movement probabilities both within and among winters were negatively related to distance between sites. We observed a higher probability both of southward movement between winters (Mar to Dec) and northward movement between months within winters. Between-winter movements were probably most strongly affected by spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality as we saw movement patterns consistent with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., La Niña and El Niño southern oscillation cycles). Month-to-month movements were related to migration patterns and may also have been affected by differences in habitat conditions among sites. Patterns of winter movements indicate that a network of wintering sites may be necessary for effective conservation of brant.

Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

PubMed

van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

2015-12-01

Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source-sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.

An agent-based modeling framework for evaluating hypotheses on risks for developing autism: effects of the gut microbial environment.

PubMed

Weston, Bronson; Fogal, Benjamin; Cook, Daniel; Dhurjati, Prasad

2015-04-01

The number of cases diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorders is rising at an alarming rate with the Centers for Disease Control estimating the 2014 incidence rate as 1 in 68. Recently, it has been hypothesized that gut bacteria may contribute to the development of autism. Specifically, the relative balances between the inflammatory microbes clostridia and desulfovibrio and the anti-inflammatory microbe bifidobacteria may become destabilized prior to autism development. The imbalance leads to a leaky gut, characterized by a more porous epithelial membrane resulting in microbial toxin release into the blood, which may contribute to brain inflammation and autism development. To test how changes in population dynamics of the gut microbiome may lead to the imbalanced microbial populations associated with autism patients, we constructed a novel agent-based model of clostridia, desulfovibrio, and bifidobacteria population interactions in the gut. The model demonstrates how changing physiological conditions in the gut can affect the population dynamics of the microbiome. Simulations using our agent-based model indicate that despite large perturbations to initial levels of bacteria, the populations robustly achieve a single steady-state given similar gut conditions. These simulation results suggests that disturbance such as a prebiotic or antibiotic treatment may only transiently affect the gut microbiome. However, sustained prebiotic treatments may correct low population counts of bifidobacteria. Furthermore, our simulations suggest that clostridia growth rate is a key determinant of risk of autism development. Treatment of high-risk infants with supra-physiological levels of lysozymes may suppress clostridia growth rate, resulting in a steep decrease in the clostridia population and therefore reduced risk of autism development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-local competition drives both rapid divergence and prolonged stasis in a model of speciation in populations with degenerate resource consumption

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

The theory of speciation is dominated by adaptationist thinking, with less attention to mechanisms that do not affect species adaptation. Degeneracy – the imperfect specificity of interactions between diverse elements of biological systems and their environments – is key to the adaptability of populations. A mathematical model was explored in which population and resource were distributed one-dimensionally according to trait value. Resource consumption was degenerate – neither strictly location-specific nor location-independent. As a result, the competition for resources among the elements of the population was non-local. Two modeling approaches, a modified differential-integral Verhulstian equation and a cellular automata model, showed similar results: narrower degeneracy led to divergent dynamics with suppression of intermediate forms, whereas broader degeneracy led to suppression of diversifying forms, resulting in population stasis with increasing phenotypic homogeneity. Such behaviors did not increase overall adaptation because they continued after the model populations achieved maximal resource consumption rates, suggesting that degeneracy-driven distributed competition for resources rather than selective pressure toward more efficient resource exploitation was the driving force. The solutions were stable in the presence of limited environmental stochastic variability or heritable phenotypic variability. A conclusion was made that both dynamic diversification and static homogeneity of populations may be outcomes of the same process – distributed competition for resource not affecting the overall adaptation – with the difference between them defined by the spread of trait degeneracy in a given environment. Thus, biological degeneracy is a driving force of both speciation and stasis in biology, which, by themselves, are not necessarily adaptive in nature. PMID:23268831

Seasonal population dynamics of Homalodisca vitripennis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) in sweet orange trees maintained under continuous deficit irrigation.

PubMed

Krugner, Rodrigo; Groves, Russell L; Johnson, Marshall W; Flores, Arnel P; Hagler, James R; Morse, Joseph G

2009-06-01

A 2-yr study was conducted in a citrus orchard (Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck cultivar Valencia) to determine the influence of plant water stress on the population dynamics of glassy-winged sharpshooter, Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar). Experimental treatments included irrigation at 100% of the crop evapotranspiration rate (ET(c)) and continuous deficit-irrigation regimens at 80 and 60% ET(c). Microclimate and plant conditions monitored included temperature and humidity in the tree canopy, leaf surface temperature, water potential, and fruit quality and yield. Glassy-winged sharpshooter population densities and activity were monitored weekly by a combination of visual inspections, beat net sampling, and trapping. Glassy-winged sharpshooter populations were negatively affected by severe plant water stress; however, population densities were not linearly related to decreasing water availability in plants. Citrus trees irrigated at 60% ET(c) had significantly warmer leaves, lower xylem water potential, and consequently hosted fewer glassy-winged sharpshooter eggs, nymphs, and adults than trees irrigated at 80% ET(c). Citrus trees irrigated at 100% ET(c) hosted similar numbers of glassy-winged sharpshooter stages as trees irrigated at 60% ET(c) and a lower number of glassy-winged sharpshooter nymphs than the 80% ET(c) treatment, specifically during the nymphal density peak in mid-April to early July. Irrigation treatments did not affect populations of monitored natural enemies. Although the adult glassy-winged sharpshooter population was reduced, on average, by 50% in trees under severe water stress, the total number of fruit and number of fruit across several fruit grade categories were significantly lower in the 60% ET(c) than in the 80 and 100% ET(c) irrigation treatments.

Modeling effects of environmental change on wolf population dynamics, trait evolution, and life history.

PubMed

Coulson, Tim; MacNulty, Daniel R; Stahler, Daniel R; vonHoldt, Bridgett; Wayne, Robert K; Smith, Douglas W

2011-12-02

Environmental change has been observed to generate simultaneous responses in population dynamics, life history, gene frequencies, and morphology in a number of species. But how common are such eco-evolutionary responses to environmental change likely to be? Are they inevitable, or do they require a specific type of change? Can we accurately predict eco-evolutionary responses? We address these questions using theory and data from the study of Yellowstone wolves. We show that environmental change is expected to generate eco-evolutionary change, that changes in the average environment will affect wolves to a greater extent than changes in how variable it is, and that accurate prediction of the consequences of environmental change will probably prove elusive.

The invasive mosquito species Aedes albopictus: current knowledge and future perspectives

PubMed Central

Bonizzoni, Mariangela; Gasperi, Giuliano; Chen, Xioaguang; James, Anthony A.

2013-01-01

One of the most dynamic events in public health is being mediated by the global spread of the invasive mosquito Aedes albopictus. Its rapid expansion and vectorial capacity for various arboviruses affect an increasingly larger proportion of the world population. Responses to the challenges of controlling this vector are expected to be enhanced by an increased knowledge of its biology, ecology, and vector competence. Details of population genetics and structure will allow following, and possibly predicting, the geographical and temporal dynamics of its expansion, and will inform the practical operations of control programs. Experts are coming together now to describe the history, characterize the present circumstances, and collaborate on future efforts to understand and mitigate this emerging public health threat. PMID:23916878

The lawyer, legal education and population policies in Africa.

PubMed

Uche, U U

1976-09-01

This paper analyses the relationship of the lawyer and legal education to policies of population dynamics in Africa. Lawyers have been reluctant to enter effectively into population studies and consequently are peripheral in influencing the formulation and implementation of population policies in Africa. This "unfortunate" situation reflects the varying attitudes of the lawyer to some aspects of population dynamics. The concept of Human Rights is examined as offering a suitable avenue for increased participation of lawyers into the formulation of population policies. The paper examines the structure of laws affecting parameters of population dynamics in Kenya and the extent to which Kenya's legal structure, as in some other African countries, is pegged to the legal system of their colonial governments. This factor, reinforced by traditional practices and socioeconomic factors, frustrate lawyers' attitudes. These attitudes can be changed by making population law an integral part of legal educational curricula. Breakdowns are given of lawyer's attitudes to fertility and abortion under specified conditions and descriptions of various case studies in Kenya, Sweden, Prague, Czechoslovakia, and England involving abortion laws. Contraception laws in Africa and health codes are detailed in order to trace how people's attitudes tend to frustrate the law, especially concerning veneral diseases. Laws concerning drugs, and especially spatial distribution (urban and rural migration) are described to show how lawyers can become involved in population law. The author's recommended law curriculum is given which emphasizes introductory preparation in the sociological, economic, demographic, health and sex education dimensions of the subject of population law in addition to study of all statutory provisions, orders, regulations, by laws and judicial decisions that have any bearing on population matters. Categories to be studied should include fertility regulation, family law, children and child welfare, criminal offence and penology, public welfare, public health, education, property and economic factors.

Uncoupling the Effects of Seed Predation and Seed Dispersal by Granivorous Ants on Plant Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Arnan, Xavier; Molowny-Horas, Roberto; Rodrigo, Anselm; Retana, Javier

2012-01-01

Secondary seed dispersal is an important plant-animal interaction, which is central to understanding plant population and community dynamics. Very little information is still available on the effects of dispersal on plant demography and, particularly, for ant-seed dispersal interactions. As many other interactions, seed dispersal by animals involves costs (seed predation) and benefits (seed dispersal), the balance of which determines the outcome of the interaction. Separate quantification of each of them is essential in order to understand the effects of this interaction. To address this issue, we have successfully separated and analyzed the costs and benefits of seed dispersal by seed-harvesting ants on the plant population dynamics of three shrub species with different traits. To that aim a stochastic, spatially-explicit individually-based simulation model has been implemented based on actual data sets. The results from our simulation model agree with theoretical models of plant response dependent on seed dispersal, for one plant species, and ant-mediated seed predation, for another one. In these cases, model predictions were close to the observed values at field. Nonetheless, these ecological processes did not affect in anyway a third species, for which the model predictions were far from the observed values. This indicates that the balance between costs and benefits associated to secondary seed dispersal is clearly related to specific traits. This study is one of the first works that analyze tradeoffs of secondary seed dispersal on plant population dynamics, by disentangling the effects of related costs and benefits. We suggest analyzing the effects of interactions on population dynamics as opposed to merely analyzing the partners and their interaction strength. PMID:22880125

Using dynamic N-mixture models to test cavity limitation on northern flying squirrel demographic parameters using experimental nest box supplementation.

PubMed

Priol, Pauline; Mazerolle, Marc J; Imbeau, Louis; Drapeau, Pierre; Trudeau, Caroline; Ramière, Jessica

2014-06-01

Dynamic N-mixture models have been recently developed to estimate demographic parameters of unmarked individuals while accounting for imperfect detection. We propose an application of the Dail and Madsen (2011: Biometrics, 67, 577-587) dynamic N-mixture model in a manipulative experiment using a before-after control-impact design (BACI). Specifically, we tested the hypothesis of cavity limitation of a cavity specialist species, the northern flying squirrel, using nest box supplementation on half of 56 trapping sites. Our main purpose was to evaluate the impact of an increase in cavity availability on flying squirrel population dynamics in deciduous stands in northwestern Québec with the dynamic N-mixture model. We compared abundance estimates from this recent approach with those from classic capture-mark-recapture models and generalized linear models. We compared apparent survival estimates with those from Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models. Average recruitment rate was 6 individuals per site after 4 years. Nevertheless, we found no effect of cavity supplementation on apparent survival and recruitment rates of flying squirrels. Contrary to our expectations, initial abundance was not affected by conifer basal area (food availability) and was negatively affected by snag basal area (cavity availability). Northern flying squirrel population dynamics are not influenced by cavity availability at our deciduous sites. Consequently, we suggest that this species should not be considered an indicator of old forest attributes in our study area, especially in view of apparent wide population fluctuations across years. Abundance estimates from N-mixture models were similar to those from capture-mark-recapture models, although the latter had greater precision. Generalized linear mixed models produced lower abundance estimates, but revealed the same relationship between abundance and snag basal area. Apparent survival estimates from N-mixture models were higher and less precise than those from CJS models. However, N-mixture models can be particularly useful to evaluate management effects on animal populations, especially for species that are difficult to detect in situations where individuals cannot be uniquely identified. They also allow investigating the effects of covariates at the site level, when low recapture rates would require restricting classic CMR analyses to a subset of sites with the most captures.

Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates.

PubMed

Descamps, Sébastien; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Barrett, Robert T; Irons, David B; Merkel, Flemming; Robertson, Gregory J; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Mallory, Mark L; Montevecchi, William A; Boertmann, David; Artukhin, Yuri; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Erikstad, Kjell-Einar; Gilchrist, H Grant; Labansen, Aili L; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Mosbech, Anders; Olsen, Bergur; Petersen, Aevar; Rail, Jean-Francois; Renner, Heather M; Strøm, Hallvard; Systad, Geir H; Wilhelm, Sabina I; Zelenskaya, Larisa

2017-09-01

Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Role of Mitochondrial Homeostasis and Dynamics in Alzheimer’s Disease

PubMed Central

Selfridge, J. Eva; Lezi, E; Lu, Jianghua; Swerdlow, Russell H.

2012-01-01

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that affects a staggering percentage of the aging population and causes memory loss and cognitive decline. Mitochondrial abnormalities can be observed systemically and in brains of patients suffering from AD, and may account for part of the disease phenotype. In this review, we summarize some of the key findings that indicate mitochondrial dysfunction is present in AD-affected subjects, including cytochrome oxidase deficiency, endophenotype data, and altered mitochondrial morphology. Special attention is given to recently described perturbations in mitochondrial autophagy, fission-fusion dynamics, and biogenesis. We also briefly discuss how mitochondrial dysfunction may influence amyloidosis in Alzheimer’s disease, why mitochondria are a valid therapeutic target, and strategies for addressing AD-specific mitochondrial dysfunction. PMID:22266017

Population momentum across vertebrate life histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, D.N.; Grand, J.B.; Arnold, J.M.

2006-01-01

Population abundance is critically important in conservation, management, and demographic theory. Thus, to better understand how perturbations to the life history affect long-term population size, we examined population momentum for four vertebrate classes with different life history strategies. In a series of demographic experiments we show that population momentum generally has a larger effect on long-term population size for organisms with long generation times than for organisms with short generation times. However, patterns between population momentum and generation time varied across taxonomic groups and according to the life history parameter that was changed. Our findings indicate that momentum may be an especially important aspect of population dynamics for long-lived vertebrates, and deserves greater attention in life history studies. Further, we discuss the importance of population momentum in natural resource management, pest control, and conservation arenas. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

BatTool: an R package with GUI for assessing the effect of White-nose syndrome and other take events on Myotis spp. of bats

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Myotis species of bats such as the Indiana Bat and Little Brown Bat are facing population declines because of White-nose syndrome (WNS). These species also face threats from anthropogenic activities such as wind energy development. Population models may be used to provide insights into threats facing these species. We developed a population model, BatTool, as an R package to help decision makers and natural resource managers examine factors influencing the dynamics of these species. The R package includes two components: 1) a deterministic and stochastic model that are accessible from the command line and 2) a graphical user interface (GUI). Results BatTool is an R package allowing natural resource managers and decision makers to understand Myotis spp. population dynamics. Through the use of a GUI, the model allows users to understand how WNS and other take events may affect the population. The results are saved both graphically and as data files. Additionally, R-savvy users may access the population functions through the command line and reuse the code as part of future research. This R package could also be used as part of a population dynamics or wildlife management course. Conclusions BatTool provides access to a Myotis spp. population model. This tool can help natural resource managers and decision makers with the Endangered Species Act deliberations for these species and with issuing take permits as part of regulatory decision making. The tool is available online as part of this publication. PMID:24955110

BatTool: an R package with GUI for assessing the effect of White-nose syndrome and other take events on Myotis spp. of bats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.

2014-01-01

Background: Myotis species of bats such as the Indiana Bat and Little Brown Bat are facing population declines because of White-nose syndrome (WNS). These species also face threats from anthropogenic activities such as wind energy development. Population models may be used to provide insights into threats facing these species. We developed a population model, BatTool, as an R package to help decision makers and natural resource managers examine factors influencing the dynamics of these species. The R package includes two components: 1) a deterministic and stochastic model that are accessible from the command line and 2) a graphical user interface (GUI). Results: BatTool is an R package allowing natural resource managers and decision makers to understand Myotis spp. population dynamics. Through the use of a GUI, the model allows users to understand how WNS and other take events may affect the population. The results are saved both graphically and as data files. Additionally, R-savvy users may access the population functions through the command line and reuse the code as part of future research. This R package could also be used as part of a population dynamics or wildlife management course. Conclusions: BatTool provides access to a Myotis spp. population model. This tool can help natural resource managers and decision makers with the Endangered Species Act deliberations for these species and with issuing take permits as part of regulatory decision making. The tool is available online as part of this publication.

BatTool: an R package with GUI for assessing the effect of White-nose syndrome and other take events on Myotis spp. of bats.

PubMed

Erickson, Richard A; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Szymanski, Jennifer A

2014-01-01

Myotis species of bats such as the Indiana Bat and Little Brown Bat are facing population declines because of White-nose syndrome (WNS). These species also face threats from anthropogenic activities such as wind energy development. Population models may be used to provide insights into threats facing these species. We developed a population model, BatTool, as an R package to help decision makers and natural resource managers examine factors influencing the dynamics of these species. The R package includes two components: 1) a deterministic and stochastic model that are accessible from the command line and 2) a graphical user interface (GUI). BatTool is an R package allowing natural resource managers and decision makers to understand Myotis spp. population dynamics. Through the use of a GUI, the model allows users to understand how WNS and other take events may affect the population. The results are saved both graphically and as data files. Additionally, R-savvy users may access the population functions through the command line and reuse the code as part of future research. This R package could also be used as part of a population dynamics or wildlife management course. BatTool provides access to a Myotis spp. population model. This tool can help natural resource managers and decision makers with the Endangered Species Act deliberations for these species and with issuing take permits as part of regulatory decision making. The tool is available online as part of this publication.

The dynamic monitoring of aeolian desertification land distribution and its response to climate change in northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Lili; Jia, Zhiqing; Li, Qingxue

2016-12-01

Aeolian desertification is poorly understood despite its importance for indicating environment change. Here we exploit Gaofen-1(GF-1) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data to develop a quick and efficient method for large scale aeolian desertification dynamic monitoring in northern China. This method, which is based on Normalized Difference Desertification Index (NDDI) calculated by band1 & band2 of MODIS reflectance data (MODIS09A1). Then we analyze spatial-temporal change of aeolian desertification area and detect its possible influencing factors, such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and population by Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) model. It suggests that aeolian desertification area with population indicates feedback (bi-directional causality) between the two variables (P < 0.05), but forcing of aeolian desertification area by population is weak. Meanwhile, we find aeolian desertification area is significantly affected by temperature, as expected. However, there is no obvious forcing for the aeolian desertification area and precipitation. Aeolian desertification area with wind speed indicates feedback (bi-directional causality) between the two variables with significant signal (P < 0.01). We infer that aeolian desertification is greatly affected by natural factors compared with anthropogenic factors. For the desertification in China, we are greatly convinced that desertification prevention is better than control.

The dynamic monitoring of aeolian desertification land distribution and its response to climate change in northern China

PubMed Central

Feng, Lili; Jia, Zhiqing; Li, Qingxue

2016-01-01

Aeolian desertification is poorly understood despite its importance for indicating environment change. Here we exploit Gaofen-1(GF-1) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data to develop a quick and efficient method for large scale aeolian desertification dynamic monitoring in northern China. This method, which is based on Normalized Difference Desertification Index (NDDI) calculated by band1 & band2 of MODIS reflectance data (MODIS09A1). Then we analyze spatial-temporal change of aeolian desertification area and detect its possible influencing factors, such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and population by Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) model. It suggests that aeolian desertification area with population indicates feedback (bi-directional causality) between the two variables (P < 0.05), but forcing of aeolian desertification area by population is weak. Meanwhile, we find aeolian desertification area is significantly affected by temperature, as expected. However, there is no obvious forcing for the aeolian desertification area and precipitation. Aeolian desertification area with wind speed indicates feedback (bi-directional causality) between the two variables with significant signal (P < 0.01). We infer that aeolian desertification is greatly affected by natural factors compared with anthropogenic factors. For the desertification in China, we are greatly convinced that desertification prevention is better than control. PMID:28004798

Effects of harvest and climate on population dynamics of northern bobwhites in south Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rolland, V.; Hostetler, J.A.; Hines, T.C.; Johnson, F.A.; Percival, H.F.; Oli, M.K.

2011-01-01

Context Hunting-related (hereafter harvest) mortality is assumed to be compensatory in many exploited species. However, when harvest mortality is additive, hunting can lead to population declines, especially on public land where hunting pressure can be intense. Recent studies indicate that excessive hunting may have contributed to the decline of a northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) population in south Florida. Aims This study aimed to estimate population growth rates to determine potential and actual contribution of vital rates to annual changes in population growth rates, and to evaluate the role of harvest and climatic variables on bobwhite population decline. Methods We used demographic parameters estimated from a six-year study to parameterise population matrix models and conduct prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses. Key results The stochastic population growth rate (?? S=0.144) was proportionally more sensitive to adult winter survival and survival of fledglings, nests and broods from first nesting attempts; the same variables were primarily responsible for annual changes in population growth rate. Demographic parameters associated with second nesting attempts made virtually no contribution to population growth rate. All harvest scenarios consistently revealed a substantial impact of harvest on bobwhite population dynamics. If the lowest harvest level recorded in the study period (i.e. 0.08 birds harvested per day per km2 in 2008) was applied, S would increase by 32.1%. Winter temperatures and precipitation negatively affected winter survival, and precipitation acted synergistically with harvest in affecting winter survival. Conclusions Our results suggest that reduction in winter survival due to overharvest has been an important cause of the decline in our study population, but that climatic factors might have also played a role. Thus, for management actions to be effective, assessing the contribution of primary (e.g. harvesting) but also secondary factors (e.g. climate) to population decline may be necessary. Implications Reducing hunting pressure would be necessary for the recovery of the bobwhite population at our study site. In addition, an adaptive harvest management strategy that considers weather conditions in setting harvest quota would help reverse the population decline further. ?? 2011 CSIRO.

The role of fire-return interval and season of burn in snag dynamics in a south Florida slash pine forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lloyd, John D.; Slater, Gary L.; Snyder, James R.

2012-01-01

Standing dead trees, or snags, are an important habitat element for many animal species. In many ecosystems, fire is a primary driver of snag population dynamics because it can both create and consume snags. The objective of this study was to examine how variation in two key components of the fire regime—fire-return interval and season of burn—affected population dynamics of snags. Using a factorial design, we exposed 1 ha plots, located within larger burn units in a south Florida slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Little and Dorman) forest, to prescribed fire applied at two intervals (approximately 3-year intervals vs. approximately 6-year intervals) and during two seasons (wet season vs. dry season) over a 12- to 13-year period. We found no consistent effect of fire season or frequency on the density of lightly to moderately decayed or heavily decayed snags, suggesting that variation in these elements of the fire regime at the scale we considered is relatively unimportant in the dynamics of snag populations. However, our confidence in these findings is limited by small sample sizes, potentially confounding effects of unmeasured variation in fire behavior and effects (e.g., intensity, severity, synergy with drought cycles) and wide variation in responses within a treatment level. The generalizing of our findings is also limited by the narrow range of treatment levels considered. Future experiments incorporating a wider range of fire regimes and directly quantifying fire intensity would prove useful in identifying more clearly the role of fire in shaping the dynamics of snag populations.

Short-term exposure to a synthetic estrogen disrupts mating dynamics in a pipefish.

PubMed

Partridge, Charlyn; Boettcher, Anne; Jones, Adam G

2010-11-01

Sexual selection is responsible for the evolution of some of the most elaborate traits occurring in nature, many of which play a vital role in competition over access to mates and individual reproductive fitness. Because expression of these traits is typically regulated by sex-steroids there is a significant potential for their expression to be affected by the presence of certain pollutants, such as endocrine disrupting compounds. Endocrine disruptors have been shown to alter primary sexual traits and impact reproduction, but few studies have investigated how these compounds affect secondary sexual trait expression and how that may, in turn, impact mating dynamics. In this study we examine how short-term exposure to a synthetic estrogen impacts secondary sexual trait expression and mating dynamics in the Gulf pipefish, a species displaying sex-role reversal. Our results show that only 10days of exposure to 17α-ethinylestradiol results in adult male pipefish developing female-like secondary sexual traits. While these males are capable of reproduction, females discriminate against exposed males in mate choice trials. In natural populations, this type of discrimination would reduce male mating opportunities, thus potentially reducing their long-term reproductive success. Importantly, the effects of these compounds on mating dynamics and mating opportunity would not be observed using the current standard methods of assessing environmental contamination. However, disrupting these processes could have profound effects on the viability of exposed populations. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal spawning and larval dynamics of a zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) population in a North Texas Reservoir: implications for invasions in the southern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Churchill, Christopher John

2013-01-01

Zebra mussels were first observed in Texas in 2009 in a reservoir (Lake Texoma) on the Texas-Oklahoma border. In 2012, an established population was found in a near-by reservoir, Ray Roberts Lake, and in June 2013, settled mussels were detected in a third north Texas reservoir, Lake Lewisville. An established population was detected in Belton Lake in September 2013. With the exception of Louisiana, these occurrences in Texas mark the current southern extent of the range of this species in the United States. Previous studies indicate that zebra mussel populations could be affected by environmental conditions, especially increased temperatures and extreme droughts, which are characteristic of surface waters of the southern and southwestern United States. Data collected during the first three years (2010–12) of a long-term monitoring program were analyzed to determine if spatio-temporal zebra mussel spawning and larval dynamics were related to physicochemical water properties in Lake Texoma. Reproductive output of the local population was significantly related to water temperature and lake elevation. Estimated mean date of first spawn in Lake Texoma was approximately 1.5 months earlier and peak veliger densities were observed two months earlier than in Lake Erie. Annual maximum veliger density declined significantly during the study period (p < 0.0001). A population crash occurred as a result of thermal stress and variability of lake elevation. In summer 2011, water temperatures peaked at 34.3°C and lake elevation declined to the lowest level recorded during the previous 18 years, which resulted in desiccation of substantial numbers of settled mussels in littoral zones. Veliger spatial distributions were associated with physicochemical stratification characteristics. Veligers were observed in the deepest oxygenated water after lake stratification, which occurred in late spring. Results of this study indicate environmental conditions can influence variability of population sizes and spatial distributions of zebra mussels along the current southern frontier of their geographic range. Although the future population size trajectory and geographic range are uncertain, increased temperatures and intermittent, extreme droughts likely will affect spatio-temporal dynamics of established populations if zebra mussels spread farther into the southern and southwestern United States.

An agent-based model of tsetse fly response to seasonal climatic drivers: Assessing the impact on sleeping sickness transmission rates.

PubMed

Alderton, Simon; Macleod, Ewan T; Anderson, Neil E; Palmer, Gwen; Machila, Noreen; Simuunza, Martin; Welburn, Susan C; Atkinson, Peter M

2018-02-01

This paper presents the development of an agent-based model (ABM) to incorporate climatic drivers which affect tsetse fly (G. m. morsitans) population dynamics, and ultimately disease transmission. The model was used to gain a greater understanding of how tsetse populations fluctuate seasonally, and investigate any response observed in Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease transmission, with a view to gaining a greater understanding of disease dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for the development of appropriate, well-targeted mitigation strategies in the future. The ABM was developed to model rHAT incidence at a fine spatial scale along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The model incorporates climatic factors that affect pupal mortality, pupal development, birth rate, and death rate. In combination with fine scale demographic data such as ethnicity, age and gender for the human population in the region, as well as an animal census and a sample of daily routines, we create a detailed, plausible simulation model to explore tsetse population and disease transmission dynamics. The seasonally-driven model suggests that the number of infections reported annually in the simulation is likely to be a reasonable representation of reality, taking into account the high levels of under-detection observed. Similar infection rates were observed in human (0.355 per 1000 person-years (SE = 0.013)), and cattle (0.281 per 1000 cattle-years (SE = 0.025)) populations, likely due to the sparsity of cattle close to the tsetse interface. The model suggests that immigrant tribes and school children are at greatest risk of infection, a result that derives from the bottom-up nature of the ABM and conditioning on multiple constraints. This result could not be inferred using alternative population-level modelling approaches. In producing a model which models the tsetse population at a very fine resolution, we were able to analyse and evaluate specific elements of the output, such as pupal development and the progression of the teneral population, allowing the development of our understanding of the tsetse population as a whole. This is an important step in the production of a more accurate transmission model for rHAT which can, in turn, help us to gain a greater understanding of the transmission system as a whole.

Metapopulation Dynamics of the Mistletoe and Its Host in Savanna Areas with Different Fire Occurrence

PubMed Central

Teodoro, Grazielle Sales; van den Berg, Eduardo; Arruda, Rafael

2013-01-01

Mistletoes are aerial hemiparasitic plants which occupy patches of favorable habitat (host trees) surrounded by unfavorable habitat and may be possibly modeled as a metapopulation. A metapopulation is defined as a subdivided population that persists due to the balance between colonization and extinction in discrete habitat patches. Our aim was to evaluate the dynamics of the mistletoe Psittacanthus robustus and its host Vochysia thyrsoidea in three Brazilian savanna areas using a metapopulation approach. We also evaluated how the differences in terms of fire occurrence affected the dynamic of those populations (two areas burned during the study and one was fire protected). We monitored the populations at six-month intervals. P. robustus population structure and dynamics met the expected criteria for a metapopulation: i) the suitable habitats for the mistletoe occur in discrete patches; (ii) local populations went extinct during the study and (iii) colonization of previously non-occupied patches occurred. The ratio of occupied patches decreased in all areas with time. Local mistletoe populations went extinct due to two different causes: patch extinction in area with no fire and fire killing in the burned areas. In a burned area, the largest decrease of occupied patch ratios occurred due to a fire event that killed the parasites without, however, killing the host trees. The greatest mortality of V. thyrsoidea occurred in the area without fire. In this area, all the dead trees supported mistletoe individuals and no mortality was observed for parasite-free trees. Because P. robustus is a fire sensitive species and V. thyrsoidea is fire tolerant, P. robustus seems to increase host mortality, but its effect is lessened by periodic burning that reduces the parasite loads. PMID:23776554

Detecting black bear source–sink dynamics using individual-based genetic graphs

PubMed Central

Draheim, Hope M.; Moore, Jennifer A.; Etter, Dwayne; Winterstein, Scott R.; Scribner, Kim T.

2016-01-01

Source–sink dynamics affects population connectivity, spatial genetic structure and population viability for many species. We introduce a novel approach that uses individual-based genetic graphs to identify source–sink areas within a continuously distributed population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the northern lower peninsula (NLP) of Michigan, USA. Black bear harvest samples (n = 569, from 2002, 2006 and 2010) were genotyped at 12 microsatellite loci and locations were compared across years to identify areas of consistent occupancy over time. We compared graph metrics estimated for a genetic model with metrics from 10 ecological models to identify ecological factors that were associated with sources and sinks. We identified 62 source nodes, 16 of which represent important source areas (net flux > 0.7) and 79 sink nodes. Source strength was significantly correlated with bear local harvest density (a proxy for bear density) and habitat suitability. Additionally, resampling simulations showed our approach is robust to potential sampling bias from uneven sample dispersion. Findings demonstrate black bears in the NLP exhibit asymmetric gene flow, and individual-based genetic graphs can characterize source–sink dynamics in continuously distributed species in the absence of discrete habitat patches. Our findings warrant consideration of undetected source–sink dynamics and their implications on harvest management of game species. PMID:27440668

Theory of time-averaged neutral dynamics with environmental stochasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danino, Matan; Shnerb, Nadav M.

2018-04-01

Competition is the main driver of population dynamics, which shapes the genetic composition of populations and the assembly of ecological communities. Neutral models assume that all the individuals are equivalent and that the dynamics is governed by demographic (shot) noise, with a steady state species abundance distribution (SAD) that reflects a mutation-extinction equilibrium. Recently, many empirical and theoretical studies emphasized the importance of environmental variations that affect coherently the relative fitness of entire populations. Here we consider two generic time-averaged neutral models; in both the relative fitness of each species fluctuates independently in time but its mean is zero. The first (model A) describes a system with local competition and linear fitness dependence of the birth-death rates, while in the second (model B) the competition is global and the fitness dependence is nonlinear. Due to this nonlinearity, model B admits a noise-induced stabilization mechanism that facilitates the invasion of new mutants. A self-consistent mean-field approach is used to reduce the multispecies problem to two-species dynamics, and the large-N asymptotics of the emerging set of Fokker-Planck equations is presented and solved. Our analytic expressions are shown to fit the SADs obtained from extensive Monte Carlo simulations and from numerical solutions of the corresponding master equations.

Detecting black bear source-sink dynamics using individual-based genetic graphs.

PubMed

Draheim, Hope M; Moore, Jennifer A; Etter, Dwayne; Winterstein, Scott R; Scribner, Kim T

2016-07-27

Source-sink dynamics affects population connectivity, spatial genetic structure and population viability for many species. We introduce a novel approach that uses individual-based genetic graphs to identify source-sink areas within a continuously distributed population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the northern lower peninsula (NLP) of Michigan, USA. Black bear harvest samples (n = 569, from 2002, 2006 and 2010) were genotyped at 12 microsatellite loci and locations were compared across years to identify areas of consistent occupancy over time. We compared graph metrics estimated for a genetic model with metrics from 10 ecological models to identify ecological factors that were associated with sources and sinks. We identified 62 source nodes, 16 of which represent important source areas (net flux > 0.7) and 79 sink nodes. Source strength was significantly correlated with bear local harvest density (a proxy for bear density) and habitat suitability. Additionally, resampling simulations showed our approach is robust to potential sampling bias from uneven sample dispersion. Findings demonstrate black bears in the NLP exhibit asymmetric gene flow, and individual-based genetic graphs can characterize source-sink dynamics in continuously distributed species in the absence of discrete habitat patches. Our findings warrant consideration of undetected source-sink dynamics and their implications on harvest management of game species. © 2016 The Author(s).

Nutrition and parturition date effects on elk: potential implications for research and management.

Treesearch

John G. Cook; Bruce K. Johnson; Rachel C. Cook; Robert A. Riggs; Tim DelCurto; Larry D. Bryant; Larry L. Irwin

2004-01-01

Understanding and managing those mechanisms that affect population dynamics comprise, perhaps, the most fundamental aspect of wildlife management (Caughley 1977). Biologists generally categorize these mechanisms as either top-down (predator-driven) or bottom-up (habitat- or animal-density driven). Bottom-up influences involve imbalances between increasing animal...

A Cultural-Historical Model to Understand and Facilitate Children's Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wong, Pui Ling

2015-01-01

Parents and educators strive to help their children to develop optimally. Given the diversity of values and practices among dynamic modern populations it is important to understand all the dimensions that affect the development of children in their communities. A cultural-historical lens facilitates such a holistic understanding. Taking this lens,…

Steppe plant response to seasonal fire

Treesearch

Paulette L. Ford

2003-01-01

Fire is a natural grassland disturbance that affects a variety of ecosystem factors including nutrient cycling, species diversity, and population and community dynamics. Caution is warranted when interpreting the effects of fire on grasslands due to the variety of fire types (e.g. wildfire vs prescribed burn), season of occurrence, weather conditions, grassland uses (e...

The post-vaccine microevolution of invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae

PubMed Central

Cremers, Amelieke J. H.; Mobegi, Fredrick M.; de Jonge, Marien I.; van Hijum, Sacha A. F. T.; Meis, Jacques F.; Hermans, Peter W. M.; Ferwerda, Gerben; Bentley, Stephen D.; Zomer, Aldert L.

2015-01-01

The 7-valent pneumococcal conjugated vaccine (PCV7) has affected the genetic population of Streptococcus pneumoniae in pediatric carriage. Little is known however about pneumococcal population genomics in adult invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) under vaccine pressure. We sequenced and serotyped 349 strains of S. pneumoniae isolated from IPD patients in Nijmegen between 2001 and 2011. Introduction of PCV7 in the Dutch National Immunization Program in 2006 preluded substantial alterations in the IPD population structure caused by serotype replacement. No evidence could be found for vaccine induced capsular switches. We observed that after a temporary bottleneck in gene diversity after the introduction of PCV7, the accessory gene pool re-expanded mainly by genes already circulating pre-PCV7. In the post-vaccine genomic population a number of genes changed frequency, certain genes became overrepresented in vaccine serotypes, while others shifted towards non-vaccine serotypes. Whether these dynamics in the invasive pneumococcal population have truly contributed to invasiveness and manifestations of disease remains to be further elucidated. We suggest the use of whole genome sequencing for surveillance of pneumococcal population dynamics that could give a prospect on the course of disease, facilitating effective prevention and management of IPD. PMID:26492862

Population and geographic range dynamics: implications for conservation planning

PubMed Central

Mace, Georgina M.; Collen, Ben; Fuller, Richard A.; Boakes, Elizabeth H.

2010-01-01

Continuing downward trends in the population sizes of many species, in the conservation status of threatened species, and in the quality, extent and connectedness of habitats are of increasing concern. Identifying the attributes of declining populations will help predict how biodiversity will be impacted and guide conservation actions. However, the drivers of biodiversity declines have changed over time and average trends in abundance or distributional change hide significant variation among species. While some populations are declining rapidly, the majority remain relatively stable and others are increasing. Here we dissect out some of the changing drivers of population and geographic range change, and identify biological and geographical correlates of winners and losers in two large datasets covering local population sizes of vertebrates since 1970 and the distributions of Galliform birds over the last two centuries. We find weak evidence for ecological and biological traits being predictors of local decline in range or abundance, but stronger evidence for the role of local anthropogenic threats and environmental change. An improved understanding of the dynamics of threat processes and how they may affect different species will help to guide better conservation planning in a continuously changing world. PMID:20980321

Global dynamics of avian influenza epidemic models with psychological effect.

PubMed

Liu, Sanhong; Pang, Liuyong; Ruan, Shigui; Zhang, Xinan

2015-01-01

Cross-sectional surveys conducted in Thailand and China after the outbreaks of the avian influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 viruses show a high degree of awareness of human avian influenza in both urban and rural populations, a higher level of proper hygienic practice among urban residents, and in particular a dramatically reduced number of visits to live markets in urban population after the influenza A H7N9 outbreak in China in 2013. In this paper, taking into account the psychological effect toward avian influenza in the human population, a bird-to-human transmission model in which the avian population exhibits saturation effect is constructed. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number. The results demonstrate that the saturation effect within avian population and the psychological effect in human population cannot change the stability of equilibria but can affect the number of infected humans if the disease is prevalent. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results and sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number in terms of model parameters that are performed to seek for effective control measures for avian influenza.

Decadal Bering Sea seascape change: consequences for Pacific walruses and indigenous hunters.

PubMed

Ray, G Carleton; Hufford, Gary L; Overland, James E; Krupnik, Igor; McCormick-Ray, Jerry; Frey, Karen; Labunski, Elizabeth

2016-01-01

The most significant factors currently affecting the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) population are climate change and consequent changes in sea-ice morphology and dynamics. This paper integrates recent physical sea-ice change in the Bering Sea with biological and ecological conditions of walruses in their winter-spring reproductive habitat. Historically, walrus in winter-spring depended on a critical mass of sea-ice habitat to optimize social networking, reproductive fitness, feeding behavior, migration, and energetic efficiency. During 2003-2013, our cross-disciplinary, multiscale analysis from shipboard observations, satellite imagery, and ice-floe tracking, reinforced by information from indigenous subsistence hunters, documented change of sea-ice structure from a plastic continuum to a "mixing bowl" of ice floes moving more independently. This fragmentation of winter habitat preconditions the walrus population toward dispersal mortality and will also negatively affect the availability of resources for indigenous communities. We urge an expanded research and management agenda that integrates walrus natural history and habitat more completely with changing sea-ice morphology and dynamics at multiple scales, while also meeting the needs of local communities.

Population dynamics of Sesamia inferens on transgenic rice expressing Cry1Ac and CpTI in southern China.

PubMed

Han, Lanzhi; Liu, Peilei; Wu, Kongming; Peng, Yufa; Wang, Feng

2008-10-01

Genetically modified insect-resistant rice lines containing the cry1Ac gene from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) or the CpTI (cowpea trypsin inhibitor) gene developed for the management of lepidopterous pests are highly resistant to the major target pests, Chilo suppressalis (Walker), Cnaphalocrocis medinalis (Guenée), and Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker), in the main rice-growing areas of China. However, the effects of these transgenic lines on Sesamia inferens (Walker), an important lepidopterous rice pest, are currently unknown. Because different insect species have varying susceptibility to Bt insecticidal proteins that may affect population dynamics, research into the effects of these transgenic rice lines on the population dynamics of S. inferens was conducted in Fuzhou, southern China, in 2005 and 2006. The results of laboratory, field cage, and field plot experiments show that S. inferens has comparatively high susceptibility to the transgenic line during the early growing season, with significant differences observed in larval density and infestation levels between transgenic and control lines. Because of a decrease in Cry1Ac levels in the plant as it ages, the transgenic line provided only a low potential for population suppression late in the growing season. There is a correlation between the changing expression of Cry1Ac and the impact of transgenic rice on the population dynamics of S. inferens during the season. These results indicate that S. inferens may become a major pest in fields of prospective commercially released transgenic rice, and more attention should be paid to developing an effective alternative management strategy.

Self-organized global control of carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Zhenyuan; Fenn, Daniel J.; Hui, Pak Ming; Johnson, Neil F.

2010-09-01

There is much disagreement concerning how best to control global carbon emissions. We explore quantitatively how different control schemes affect the collective emission dynamics of a population of emitting entities. We uncover a complex trade-off which arises between average emissions (affecting the global climate), peak pollution levels (affecting citizens’ everyday health), industrial efficiency (affecting the nation’s economy), frequency of institutional intervention (affecting governmental costs), common information (affecting trading behavior) and market volatility (affecting financial stability). Our findings predict that a self-organized free-market approach at the level of a sector, state, country or continent can provide better control than a top-down regulated scheme in terms of market volatility and monthly pollution peaks. The control of volatility also has important implications for any future derivative carbon emissions market.

Existence and characterization of optimal control in mathematics model of diabetics population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Permatasari, A. H.; Tjahjana, R. H.; Udjiani, T.

2018-03-01

Diabetes is a chronic disease with a huge burden affecting individuals and the whole society. In this paper, we constructed the optimal control mathematical model by applying a strategy to control the development of diabetic population. The constructed mathematical model considers the dynamics of disabled people due to diabetes. Moreover, an optimal control approach is proposed in order to reduce the burden of pre-diabetes. Implementation of control is done by preventing the pre-diabetes develop into diabetics with and without complications. The existence of optimal control and characterization of optimal control is discussed in this paper. Optimal control is characterized by applying the Pontryagin minimum principle. The results indicate that there is an optimal control in optimization problem in mathematics model of diabetic population. The effect of the optimal control variable (prevention) is strongly affected by the number of healthy people.

Evolution of bacterial virulence.

PubMed

Diard, Médéric; Hardt, Wolf-Dietrich

2017-09-01

Bacterial virulence is highly dynamic and context-dependent. For this reason, it is challenging to predict how molecular changes affect the growth of a pathogen in a host and its spread in host population. Two schools of thought have taken quite different directions to decipher the underlying principles of bacterial virulence. While molecular infection biology is focusing on the basic mechanisms of the pathogen-host interaction, evolution biology takes virulence as one of several parameters affecting pathogen spread in a host population. We review both approaches and discuss how they can complement each other in order to obtain a comprehensive understanding of bacterial virulence, its emergence, maintenance and evolution. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Active tissue stiffness modulation controls valve interstitial cell phenotype and osteogenic potential in 3D culture.

PubMed

Duan, Bin; Yin, Ziying; Hockaday Kang, Laura; Magin, Richard L; Butcher, Jonathan T

2016-05-01

Calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) progression is a highly dynamic process whereby normally fibroblastic valve interstitial cells (VIC) undergo osteogenic differentiation, maladaptive extracellular matrix (ECM) composition, structural remodeling, and tissue matrix stiffening. However, how VIC with different phenotypes dynamically affect matrix properties and how the altered matrix further affects VIC phenotypes in response to physiological and pathological conditions have not yet been determined. In this study, we develop 3D hydrogels with tunable matrix stiffness to investigate the dynamic interplay between VIC phenotypes and matrix biomechanics. We find that VIC populated within hydrogels with valve leaflet like stiffness differentiate towards myofibroblasts in osteogenic media, but surprisingly undergo osteogenic differentiation when cultured within lower initial stiffness hydrogels. VIC differentiation progressively stiffens the hydrogel microenvironment, which further upregulates both early and late osteogenic markers. These findings identify a dynamic positive feedback loop that governs acceleration of VIC calcification. Temporal stiffening of pathologically lower stiffness matrix back to normal level, or blocking the mechanosensitive RhoA/ROCK signaling pathway, delays the osteogenic differentiation process. Therefore, direct ECM biomechanical modulation can affect VIC phenotypes towards and against osteogenic differentiation in 3D culture. These findings highlight the importance of the homeostatic maintenance of matrix stiffness to restrict pathological VIC differentiation. We implement 3D hydrogels with tunable matrix stiffness to investigate the dynamic interaction between valve interstitial cells (VIC, major cell population in heart valve) and matrix biomechanics. This work focuses on how human VIC responses to changing 3D culture environments. Our findings identify a dynamic positive feedback loop that governs acceleration of VIC calcification, which is the hallmark of calcific aortic valve disease. Temporal stiffening of pathologically lower stiffness matrix back to normal level, or blocking the mechanosensitive signaling pathway, delays VIC osteogenic differentiation. Our findings provide an improved understanding of VIC-matrix interactions to aid in interpretation of VIC calcification studies in vitro and suggest that ECM disruption resulting in local tissue stiffness decreases may promote calcific aortic valve disease. Copyright © 2016 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution in plant populations as a driver of ecological changes in arthropod communities

PubMed Central

Johnson, Marc T.J.; Vellend, Mark; Stinchcombe, John R.

2009-01-01

Heritable variation in traits can have wide-ranging impacts on species interactions, but the effects that ongoing evolution has on the temporal ecological dynamics of communities are not well understood. Here, we identify three conditions that, if experimentally satisfied, support the hypothesis that evolution by natural selection can drive ecological changes in communities. These conditions are: (i) a focal population exhibits genetic variation in a trait(s), (ii) there is measurable directional selection on the trait(s), and (iii) the trait(s) under selection affects variation in a community variable(s). When these conditions are met, we expect evolution by natural selection to cause ecological changes in the community. We tested these conditions in a field experiment examining the interactions between a native plant (Oenothera biennis) and its associated arthropod community (more than 90 spp.). Oenothera biennis exhibited genetic variation in several plant traits and there was directional selection on plant biomass, life-history strategy (annual versus biennial reproduction) and herbivore resistance. Genetically based variation in biomass and life-history strategy consistently affected the abundance of common arthropod species, total arthropod abundance and arthropod species richness. Using two modelling approaches, we show that evolution by natural selection in large O. biennis populations is predicted to cause changes in the abundance of individual arthropod species, increases in the total abundance of arthropods and a decline in the number of arthropod species. In small O. biennis populations, genetic drift is predicted to swamp out the effects of selection, making the evolution of plant populations unpredictable. In short, evolution by natural selection can play an important role in affecting the dynamics of communities, but these effects depend on several ecological factors. The framework presented here is general and can be applied to other systems to examine the community-level effects of ongoing evolution. PMID:19414473

Trans-Boundary Edge Effects in the Western Carpathians: The Influence of Hunting on Large Carnivore Occupancy.

PubMed

Kutal, Miroslav; Váňa, Martin; Suchomel, Josef; Chapron, Guillaume; López-Bao, José Vicente

2016-01-01

The conservation and management of wolves Canis lupus in the periphery of their distribution is challenging. Edges of wolf distribution are characterized by very few and intermittent occurrences of individuals, which are modulated by multiple factors affecting the overall population such as human-caused mortality, management targets and food availability. The knowledge of population dynamics in the edges becomes crucial when hunting takes place nearby the edges, which may preclude population expansion. Here, using as example the occurrence of wolves in the Beskydy Mountains (Czech-Slovak border), which are the edge distribution of the wolf and Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx populations in the West Carpathians, we explored how food availability and hunting in the Slovakian core area affected the dynamics of wolves in the edges of this population. During 2003-2012, we monitored large carnivore occurrence by snow-tracking surveys and tested potential differences in the occurrence of these species in Beskydy Mountains and potential mechanisms behind detected patterns. Despite the proximity to the core area, with several wolf reproductions being confirmed at least in recent years, the wolf was a very rare species in Beskydy and was recorded 14 times less often than the lynx. The expected abundance of wolves in the Beskydy Mountains was inversely related to prey availability in the Slovakian core area. Wolf hunting the year before influenced the expected abundance of wolves in Beskydy area. We discuss how different life histories and legal status of both species probably account for most of the observed difference of occurrence at range margins.

Trans-Boundary Edge Effects in the Western Carpathians: The Influence of Hunting on Large Carnivore Occupancy

PubMed Central

Váňa, Martin; Suchomel, Josef; Chapron, Guillaume; López-Bao, José Vicente

2016-01-01

The conservation and management of wolves Canis lupus in the periphery of their distribution is challenging. Edges of wolf distribution are characterized by very few and intermittent occurrences of individuals, which are modulated by multiple factors affecting the overall population such as human-caused mortality, management targets and food availability. The knowledge of population dynamics in the edges becomes crucial when hunting takes place nearby the edges, which may preclude population expansion. Here, using as example the occurrence of wolves in the Beskydy Mountains (Czech-Slovak border), which are the edge distribution of the wolf and Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx populations in the West Carpathians, we explored how food availability and hunting in the Slovakian core area affected the dynamics of wolves in the edges of this population. During 2003–2012, we monitored large carnivore occurrence by snow-tracking surveys and tested potential differences in the occurrence of these species in Beskydy Mountains and potential mechanisms behind detected patterns. Despite the proximity to the core area, with several wolf reproductions being confirmed at least in recent years, the wolf was a very rare species in Beskydy and was recorded 14 times less often than the lynx. The expected abundance of wolves in the Beskydy Mountains was inversely related to prey availability in the Slovakian core area. Wolf hunting the year before influenced the expected abundance of wolves in Beskydy area. We discuss how different life histories and legal status of both species probably account for most of the observed difference of occurrence at range margins. PMID:28002475

Carnivora Population Dynamics Are as Slow and as Fast as Those of Other Mammals: Implications for Their Conservation

PubMed Central

van de Kerk, Madelon; de Kroon, Hans; Conde, Dalia A.; Jongejans, Eelke

2013-01-01

Of the 285 species of Carnivora 71 are threatened, while many of these species fulfill important ecological roles in their ecosystems as top or meso-predators. Population transition matrices make it possible to study how age-specific survival and fecundity affect population growth, extinction risks, and responses to management strategies. Here we review 38 matrix models from 35 studies on 27 Carnivora taxa, covering 11% of the threatened Carnivora species. We show that the elasticity patterns (i.e. distribution over fecundity, juvenile survival and adult survival) in Carnivora cover the same range in triangular elasticity plots as those of other mammal species, despite the specific place of Carnivora in the food chain. Furthermore, reproductive loop elasticity analysis shows that the studied species spread out evenly over a slow-fast continuum, but also quantifies the large variation in the duration of important life cycles and their contributions to population growth rate. These general elasticity patterns among species, and their correlation with simple life history characteristics like body mass, age of first reproduction and life span, enables the extrapolation of population dynamical properties to unstudied species. With several examples we discuss how this slow-fast continuum, and related patterns of variation in reproductive loop elasticity, can be used in the formulation of tentative management plans for threatened species that cannot wait for the results of thorough demographic studies. We argue, however, that such management programs should explicitly include a plan for learning about the key demographic rates and how these are affected by environmental drivers and threats. PMID:23950922

The fingerprints of global climate change on insect populations.

PubMed

Boggs, Carol L

2016-10-01

Synthesizing papers from the last two years, I examined generalizations about the fingerprints of climate change on insects' population dynamics and phenology. Recent work shows that populations can differ in response to changes in climate means and variances. The part of the thermal niche occupied by an insect population, voltinism, plasticity and adaptation to weather perturbations, and interactions with other species can all exacerbate or mitigate responses to climate change. Likewise, land use change or agricultural practices can affect responses to climate change. Nonetheless, our knowledge of effects of climate change is still biased by organism and geographic region, and to some extent by scale of climate parameter. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought.

PubMed

Jones, Marjorie T; Milligan, William R; Kats, Lee B; Vandergon, Thomas L; Honeycutt, Rodney L; Fisher, Robert N; Davis, Courtney L; Lucas, Timothy A

2017-02-07

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal Population Dynamics of Megacopta cribraria (Hemiptera: Plataspidae) in Kudzu and Soybean, and Implication for Insecticidal Management in Soybean.

PubMed

Blount, J L; Roberts, P M; Toews, M D; Gardner, W A; Buntin, G D; Davis, J W; All, J N

2017-02-01

Megacopta cribraria (F.), an invasive species introduced from Asia in 2009, is now prolific in the southeastern United States. Megacopta cribraria develops primarily on kudzu and soybean completing two generations. It is not well understood how this economic pest is affected by changes in geographic distribution in the United States or how population levels have changed since its establishment. The effect of insecticide application timing on field populations of M. cribraria is not well documented. These studies seek to understand how population dynamics of M. cribraria vary with geographic regions in Georgia. Effect of application timing on populations throughout the growing season was also examined. Weekly from 2012 to 2013, all life stages were enumerated from kudzu and soybean environments at several locations throughout Georgia from sweeps samples and flight intercept captures. Coordinates were recorded for locations, and classified as belonging to the Piedmont or Coastal Plain region of the state. Single spray trials were conducted from 2011-2014, and applications were made to soybean at intervals throughout the season. From 2012 to 2015, two kudzu patches near Griffin, GA, were monitored to detect population changes. Differences in population dynamics from locations around the state were found, but no clear effect of latitude, longitude, or region was observed. Insecticide applications applied in July suppressed nymph populations significantly better than treatments made earlier or later. Megacopta cribraria populations declined in 2014 and 2015 compared with 2012 and 2013. These studies provide the critical information for M. cribraria management in soybean in the southeastern United States. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Changes of population trends and mortality patterns in response to the reintroduction of large predators: The case study of African ungulates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grange, Sophie; Owen-Smith, Norman; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Druce, Dave J.; Moleón, Marcos; Mgobozi, Mandisa

2012-07-01

Large predators have been reintroduced to an increasing number of protected areas in South Africa. However, the conditions allowing both prey and predator populations to be sustained in enclosed areas are still unclear as there is a lack of understanding of the consequences of such reintroductions for ungulate population dynamics. Variation in lion numbers, two decades after their first release, offered a special opportunity to test the effects of predation pressure on the population dynamics of seven ungulate species in the 960 km2 Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP), South Africa. We used two different approaches to examine predator-prey relationships: the population response of ungulates to predation pressure after accounting for possible confounding factors, and the pattern of ungulate adult mortality observed from carcass records. Rainfall patterns affected observed mortalities of several ungulate species in HiP. Although lion predation accounted for most ungulate mortality, it still had no detectable influence on ungulate population trends and mortality patterns, with one possible exception. This evidence suggests that the lion population had not yet attained the maximum abundance potentially supported by their ungulate prey; but following recent increases in lion numbers it will probably occur soon. It remains uncertain whether a quasi-stable balance will be reached between prey and predator populations, or whether favoured prey species will be depressed towards levels potentially generating oscillatory dynamics in this complex large mammal assemblage. We specifically recommend a continuous monitoring of predator and prey populations in HiP since lions are likely to show more impacts on their prey species in the next years.

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Marjorie T.; Milligan, William R.; Kats, Lee B.; Vandergon, Thomas L.; Honeycutt, Rodney L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Davis, Courtney L.; Lucas, Timothy A.

2017-01-01

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

Macroparasite dynamics of migratory host populations.

PubMed

Peacock, Stephanie J; Bouhours, Juliette; Lewis, Mark A; Molnár, Péter K

2018-03-01

Spatial variability in host density is a key factor affecting disease dynamics of wildlife, and yet there are few spatially explicit models of host-macroparasite dynamics. This limits our understanding of parasitism in migratory hosts, whose densities change considerably in both space and time. In this paper, we develop a model for host-macroparasite dynamics that considers the directional movement of host populations and their associated parasites. We include spatiotemporal changes in the mean and variance in parasite burden per host, as well as parasite-mediated host mortality and parasite-mediated migratory ability. Reduced migratory ability with increasing parasitism results in heavily infested hosts halting their migration, and higher parasite burdens in stationary hosts than in moving hosts. Simulations reveal the potential for positive feedbacks between parasite-reduced migratory ability and increasing parasite burdens at infection hotspots, such as stopover sites, that may lead to parasite-induced migratory stalling. This framework could help understand how global change might influence wildlife disease via changes to migratory patterns and parasite demographic rates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Proposed Dynamic Pressure and Temperature Primary Standard

PubMed Central

Rosasco, Gregory J.; Bean, Vern E.; Hurst, Wilbur S.

1990-01-01

Diatomic gas molecules have a fundamental vibrational motion whose frequency is affected by pressure in a simple way. In addition, these molecules have well defined rotational energy levels whose populations provide a reliable measure of the thermodynamic temperature. Since information concerning the frequency of vibration and the relative populations can be determined by laser spectroscopy, the gas molecules themselves can serve as sensors of pressure and temperature. Through measurements under static conditions, the pressure and temperature dependence of the spectra of selected molecules is now understood. As the time required for the spectroscopic measurement can be reduced to nanoseconds, the diatomic gas molecule is an excellent candidate for a dynamic pressure/temperature primary standard. The temporal response in this case will be limited by the equilibration time for the molecules to respond to changes in local thermodynamic variables. Preliminary feasibility studies suggest that by using coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy we will be able to measure dynamic pressure up to 108 Pa and dynamic temperature up to 1500 K with an uncertainty of 5%. PMID:28179756

Dynamic complexities in a pest control model with birth pulse and harvesting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goel, A., E-mail: goelanju23@gmail.com; Gakkhar, S., E-mail: sungkfma@iitr.ernet.in

In this paper, an impulsive model is discussed for an integrated pest management approach comprising of chemical and mechanical controls. The pesticides and harvesting are used to control the stage-structured pest population. The mature pest give birth to immature pest in pulses at regular intervals. The pest is controlled by spraying chemical pesticides affecting immature as well as mature pest. The harvesting of both immature and mature pest further reduce the pest population. The discrete dynamical system obtained from stroboscopic map is analyzed. The threshold conditions for stability of pest-free state as well as non-trivial period-1 solution is obtained. Themore » effect of pesticide spray timing and harvesting on immature as well as mature pest are shown. Finally, by numerical simulation with MATLAB, the dynamical behaviors of the model is found to be complex. Above the threshold level there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations leading to chaotic dynamics. Route to chaos is found to be period-doubling. Period halving bifurcations are also observed.« less

Distinguishing Error from Chaos in Ecological Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugihara, George; Grenfell, Bryan; May, Robert M.

1990-11-01

Over the years, there has been much discussion about the relative importance of environmental and biological factors in regulating natural populations. Often it is thought that environmental factors are associated with stochastic fluctuations in population density, and biological ones with deterministic regulation. We revisit these ideas in the light of recent work on chaos and nonlinear systems. We show that completely deterministic regulatory factors can lead to apparently random fluctuations in population density, and we then develop a new method (that can be applied to limited data sets) to make practical distinctions between apparently noisy dynamics produced by low-dimensional chaos and population variation that in fact derives from random (high-dimensional)noise, such as environmental stochasticity or sampling error. To show its practical use, the method is first applied to models where the dynamics are known. We then apply the method to several sets of real data, including newly analysed data on the incidence of measles in the United Kingdom. Here the additional problems of secular trends and spatial effects are explored. In particular, we find that on a city-by-city scale measles exhibits low-dimensional chaos (as has previously been found for measles in New York City), whereas on a larger, country-wide scale the dynamics appear as a noisy two-year cycle. In addition to shedding light on the basic dynamics of some nonlinear biological systems, this work dramatizes how the scale on which data is collected and analysed can affect the conclusions drawn.

Interlinkages between bacterial populations dynamics and the operational parameters in a moving bed membrane bioreactor treating urban sewage.

PubMed

Reboleiro-Rivas, P; Martín-Pascual, J; Morillo, J A; Juárez-Jiménez, B; Poyatos, J M; Rodelas, B; González-López, J

2016-01-01

Bacteria are key players in biological wastewater treatments (WWTs), thus a firm knowledge of the bacterial population dynamics is crucial to understand environmental/operational factors affecting the efficiency and stability of the biological depuration process. Unfortunately, little is known about the microbial ecology of the advanced biological WWTs combining suspended biomass (SB) and attached biofilms (AB). This study explored in depth the bacterial community structure and population dynamics in each biomass fraction from a pilot-scale moving bed membrane bioreactor (MBMBR) treating municipal sewage, by means of temperature-gradient gel electrophoresis (TGGE) and 454-pyrosequencing. Eight experimental phases were conducted, combining different carrier filling ratios, hydraulic retention times and concentrations of mixed liquor total suspended solids. The bacterial community, dominated by Proteobacteria (20.9-53.8%) and Actinobacteria (20.6-57.6%), was very similar in both biomass fractions and able to maintain its functional stability under all the operating conditions, ensuring a successful and steady depuration process. Multivariate statistical analysis demonstrated that solids concentration, carrier filling ratio, temperature and organic matter concentration in the influent were the significant factors explaining population dynamics. Bacterial diversity increased as carrier filling ratio increased (from 20% to 35%, v/v), and solids concentration was the main factor triggering the shifts of the community structure. These findings provide new insights on the influence of operational parameters on the biology of the innovative MBMBRs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal variation in temperature determines disease spread and maintenance in Paramecium microcosm populations

PubMed Central

Duncan, Alison B.; Fellous, Simon; Kaltz, Oliver

2011-01-01

The environment is rarely constant and organisms are exposed to temporal and spatial variations that impact their life histories and inter-species interactions. It is important to understand how such variations affect epidemiological dynamics in host–parasite systems. We explored effects of temporal variation in temperature on experimental microcosm populations of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum and its bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Infected and uninfected populations of two P. caudatum genotypes were created and four constant temperature treatments (26°C, 28°C, 30°C and 32°C) compared with four variable treatments with the same mean temperatures. Variable temperature treatments were achieved by alternating populations between permissive (23°C) and restrictive (35°C) conditions daily over 30 days. Variable conditions and high temperatures caused greater declines in Paramecium populations, greater fluctuations in population size and higher incidence of extinction. The additional effect of parasite infection was additive and enhanced the negative effects of the variable environment and higher temperatures by up to 50 per cent. The variable environment and high temperatures also caused a decrease in parasite prevalence (up to 40%) and an increase in extinction (absence of detection) (up to 30%). The host genotypes responded similarly to the different environmental stresses and their effect on parasite traits were generally in the same direction. This work provides, to our knowledge, the first experimental demonstration that epidemiological dynamics are influenced by environmental variation. We also emphasize the need to consider environmental variance, as well as means, when trying to understand, or predict population dynamics or range. PMID:21450730

Life history and dynamics of a platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) population: four decades of mark-recapture surveys

PubMed Central

Bino, Gilad; Grant, Tom R.; Kingsford, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Knowledge of the life-history and population dynamics of Australia’s iconic and evolutionarily distinct platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) remains poor. We marked-recaptured 812 unique platypuses (total 1,622 captures), over four decades (1973–2014) in the Shoalhaven River, Australia. Strong sex-age differences were observed in life-history, including morphology and longevity. Apparent survival of adult females (Φ = 0.76) were higher than adult males (Φ = 0.57), as in juveniles: females Φ = 0.27, males Φ = 0.13. Females were highly likely to remain in the same pool (adult: P = 0.85, juvenile: P = 0.88), while residency rates were lower for males (adult: P = 0.74, juvenile: P = 0.46). We combined survival, movement and life-histories to develop population viability models and test the impact of a range of life-history parameters. While using estimated apparent survival produced unviable populations (mean population growth rate r = −0.23, extinction within 20 years), considering residency rates to adjust survival estimates, indicated more stable populations (r = 0.004, p = 0.04 of 100-year extinction). Further sensitivity analyses highlighted adult female survival and overall success of dispersal as most affecting viability. Findings provide robust life-history and viability estimates for a difficult study species. These could support developing large-scale population dynamics models required to underpin a much needed national risk assessment for the platypus, already declining in parts of its current distribution. PMID:26536832

Life history and dynamics of a platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) population: four decades of mark-recapture surveys.

PubMed

Bino, Gilad; Grant, Tom R; Kingsford, Richard T

2015-11-05

Knowledge of the life-history and population dynamics of Australia's iconic and evolutionarily distinct platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) remains poor. We marked-recaptured 812 unique platypuses (total 1,622 captures), over four decades (1973-2014) in the Shoalhaven River, Australia. Strong sex-age differences were observed in life-history, including morphology and longevity. Apparent survival of adult females (Φ = 0.76) were higher than adult males (Φ = 0.57), as in juveniles: females Φ = 0.27, males Φ = 0.13. Females were highly likely to remain in the same pool (adult: P = 0.85, juvenile: P = 0.88), while residency rates were lower for males (adult: P = 0.74, juvenile: P = 0.46). We combined survival, movement and life-histories to develop population viability models and test the impact of a range of life-history parameters. While using estimated apparent survival produced unviable populations (mean population growth rate r = -0.23, extinction within 20 years), considering residency rates to adjust survival estimates, indicated more stable populations (r = 0.004, p = 0.04 of 100-year extinction). Further sensitivity analyses highlighted adult female survival and overall success of dispersal as most affecting viability. Findings provide robust life-history and viability estimates for a difficult study species. These could support developing large-scale population dynamics models required to underpin a much needed national risk assessment for the platypus, already declining in parts of its current distribution.

Sexual selection affects local extinction and turnover in bird communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doherty, P.F.; Sorci, G.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Boulinier, T.

2003-01-01

Predicting extinction risks has become a central goal for conservation and evolutionary biologists interested in population and community dynamics. Several factors have been put forward to explain risks of extinction, including ecological and life history characteristics of individuals. For instance, factors that affect the balance between natality and mortality can have profound effects on population persistence. Sexual selection has been identified as one such factor. Populations under strong sexual selection experience a number of costs ranging from increased predation and parasitism to enhanced sensitivity to environmental and demographic stochasticity. These findings have led to the prediction that local extinction rates should be higher for species/populations with intense sexual selection. We tested this prediction by analyzing the dynamics of natural bird communities at a continental scale over a period of 21 years (1975-1996), using relevant statistical tools. In agreement with the theoretical prediction, we found that sexual selection increased risks of local extinction (dichromatic birds had on average a 23% higher local extinction rate than monochromatic species). However, despite higher local extinction probabilities, the number of dichromatic species did not decrease over the period considered in this study. This pattern was caused by higher local turnover rates of dichromatic species, resulting in relatively stable communities for both groups of species. Our results suggest that these communities function as metacommunities, with frequent local extinctions followed by colonization. Anthropogenic factors impeding dispersal might therefore have a significant impact on the global persistence of sexually selected species.

Plague epizootic cycles in Central Asia.

PubMed

Reijniers, Jonas; Begon, Mike; Ageyev, Vladimir S; Leirs, Herwig

2014-06-01

Infection thresholds, widely used in disease epidemiology, may operate on host abundance and, if present, on vector abundance. For wildlife populations, host and vector abundances often vary greatly across years and consequently the threshold may be crossed regularly, both up- and downward. Moreover, vector and host abundances may be interdependent, which may affect the infection dynamics. Theory predicts that if the relevant abundance, or combination of abundances, is above the threshold, then the infection is able to spread; if not, it is bound to fade out. In practice, though, the observed level of infection may depend more on past than on current abundances. Here, we study the temporal dynamics of plague (Yersinia pestis infection), its vector (flea) and its host (great gerbil) in the PreBalkhash region in Kazakhstan. We describe how host and vector abundances interact over time and how this interaction drives the dynamics of the system around the infection threshold, consequently affecting the proportion of plague-infected sectors. We also explore the importance of the interplay between biological and detectability delays in generating the observed dynamics.

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls.

PubMed

Millon, Alexandre; Petty, Steve J; Little, Brian; Gimenez, Olivier; Cornulier, Thomas; Lambin, Xavier

2014-06-01

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole-eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Genetic and environmental control of seasonal carbohydrate dynamics in trees of diverse Pinus sylvestris populations.

PubMed

Oleksyn, J.; Zytkowiak, R.; Karolewski, P.; Reich, P. B.; Tjoelker, M. G.

2000-06-01

We explored environmental and genetic factors affecting seasonal dynamics of starch and soluble nonstructural carbohydrates in needle and twig cohorts and roots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees of six populations originating between 49 degrees and 60 degrees N, and grown under common garden conditions in western Poland. Trees of each population were sampled once or twice per month over a 3-year period from age 15 to 17 years. Based on similarity in starch concentration patterns in needles, two distinct groups of populations were identified; one comprised northern populations from Sweden and Russia (59-60 degrees N), and another comprised central European populations from Latvia, Poland, Germany and France (49-56 degrees N). Needle starch concentrations of northern populations started to decline in late spring and reached minimum values earlier than those of central populations. For all populations, starch accumulation in spring started when minimum air temperature permanently exceeded 0 degrees C. Starch accumulation peaked before bud break and was highest in 1-year-old needles, averaging 9-13% of dry mass. Soluble carbohydrate concentrations were lowest in spring and summer and highest in autumn and winter. There were no differences among populations in seasonal pattern of soluble carbohydrate concentrations. Averaged across all populations, needle soluble carbohydrate concentrations increased from about 4% of needle dry mass in developing current-year needles, to about 9% in 1- and 2-year-old needles. Root carbohydrate concentration exhibited a bimodal pattern with peaks in spring and autumn. Northern populations had higher concentrations of fine-root starch in spring and autumn than central populations. Late-summer carbohydrate accumulation in roots started only after depletion of starch in needles and woody shoots. We conclude that Scots pine carbohydrate dynamics depend partially on inherited properties that are probably related to phenology of root and shoot growth.

Conservation genetics of managed ungulate populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.

1993-01-01

Natural populations of many species are increasingly impacted by human activities. Perturbations are particularly pronunced for large ungulates due in part to sport and commercial harvest, to reductions and fragmentation of native habitat, and as the result of reintroductions. These perturbations affect population size, sex and age composition, and population breeding structure, and as a consequence affect the levels and partitioning of genetic variation. Three case histories highlighting long-term ecological genetic research on mule deer Odocoileus hemionus (Rafinesque, 1817), white-tailed deer O. virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780), and Alpine ibex Capra i. ibex Linnaeus, 1758 are presented. Joint examinations of population ecological and genetic data from several populations of each species reveal: (1) that populations are not in genetic equilibrium, but that allele frequencies and heterozygosity change dramatically over time and among cohorts produced in successive years, (2) populations are genetically structured over short and large geographic distances reflecting local breeding structure and patterns of gene flow, respectively; however, this structure is quite dynamic over time, due in part to population exploitation, and (3) restocking programs are often undertaken with small numbers of founding individuals resulting in dramatic declines in levels of genetic variability and increasing levels of genetic differentiation among populations due to genetic drift. Genetic characteristics have and will continue to provide valuable indirect sources of information relating enviromental and human perturbations to changes in population processes.

Effective Population Size Dynamics and the Demographic Collapse of Bornean Orang-Utans

PubMed Central

Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W.; Van Schaik, Carel P.; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

2012-01-01

Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200–2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess their relative contributions. PMID:23166666

The importance of accurately modelling human interactions. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosati, Dora P.; Molina, Chai; Earn, David J. D.

2015-12-01

Human behaviour and disease dynamics can greatly influence each other. In particular, people often engage in self-protective behaviours that affect epidemic patterns (e.g., vaccination, use of barrier precautions, isolation, etc.). Self-protective measures usually have a mitigating effect on an epidemic [16], but can in principle have negative impacts at the population level [12,15,18]. The structure of underlying social and biological contact networks can significantly influence the specific ways in which population-level effects are manifested. Using a different contact network in a disease dynamics model-keeping all else equal-can yield very different epidemic patterns. For example, it has been shown that when individuals imitate their neighbours' vaccination decisions with some probability, this can lead to herd immunity in some networks [9], yet for other networks it can preserve clusters of susceptible individuals that can drive further outbreaks of infectious disease [12].

Experimental decoupling of canopy opening and debris addition on tropical gastropod populations and communities

Treesearch

Michael R. Willig; Christopher P. Bloch; Steven J. Presley

2014-01-01

Climate-induced disturbances such as hurricanes affect the structure and functioning of many ecosystems, especially those in the Caribbean Basin, where effects are well documented with regard to biodiversity and biogeochemical dynamics. Because climate change will likely alter the frequency or intensity of such storms, it is increasingly important to understand the...

THE ROLE OF AVIAN HOST DYNAMICS AND ANTHROPOGENIC STRESSORS ON THE TRANSMISSION OF WEST NILE VIRUS AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR HUMAN HEALTH AND BIODIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

Our multidisciplinary approach will allow for an understanding of how ecological changes affect arbovirus infection and distribution and help determine the impact of WNV on both host and human populations. By comparing models of predicted prevalence to actual changes in WNV tr...

The benefits of seed banking for red maple (Acer rubrum): maximizing seedling recruitment

Treesearch

Janneke Hille Ris Lambers; James S. Clark

2005-01-01

Seed banking is assumed to be unimportant for temperate trees, because their seeds are short-lived in soils. However, even short-term seed banking could increase recruitment and affect population dynamics of seed-banking trees. To investigate this possibility, we examined early life-history stages of red maple (Acer rubrum L.), an abundant seed-...

Riparian trees and aridland streams of the southwestern United States: An assessment of the past, present, and future

Treesearch

D. Max Smith; Deborah M. Finch

2016-01-01

Riparian ecosystems are vital components of aridlands within the southwestern United States. Historically, surface flows influenced population dynamics of native riparian trees. Many southwestern streams has been altered by regulation, however, and will be further affected by greenhouse warming. Our analysis of stream gage data revealed that decreases in...

Temperature-dependent effects on mutualistic, antagonistic, and commensalistic interactions among insects, fungi and mites

Treesearch

R.W. Hofstetter; T.D. Dempsey; K.D. Klepzig; M.P. Ayres

2007-01-01

The relative abundance and nature of associations between symbiotic species can be affected by abiotic conditions with consequences for population dynamics. We investigated the effects of temperature on the community of mites and fungi associated with the southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis, an important pest of pine forests in the southern...

Selective predation and rapid evolution can jointly dampen effects of virulent parasites on Daphnia populations.

PubMed

Duffy, Meghan A; Hall, Spencer R

2008-04-01

Parasites are ubiquitous and often highly virulent, yet clear examples of parasite-driven changes in host density in natural populations are surprisingly scarce. Here, we illustrate an example of this phenomenon and offer a theoretically reasonable resolution. We document the effects of two parasites, the bacterium Spirobacillus cienkowskii and the yeast Metschnikowia bicuspidata, on a common freshwater invertebrate, Daphnia dentifera. We show that while both parasites were quite virulent to individual hosts, only bacterial epidemics were associated with significant changes in host population dynamics and density. Our theoretical results may help explain why yeast epidemics did not significantly affect population dynamics. Using a model parameterized with data we collected, we argue that two prominent features of this system, rapid evolution of host resistance to the parasite and selective predation on infected hosts, both decrease peak infection prevalence and can minimize decline in host density during epidemics. Taken together, our results show that understanding the outcomes of host-parasite interactions in this Daphnia-microparasite system may require consideration of ecological context and evolutionary processes and their interaction.

Oceanographic mechanisms and penguin population increases during the Little Ice Age in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Lianjiao; Sun, Liguang; Emslie, Steven D.; Xie, Zhouqing; Huang, Tao; Gao, Yuesong; Yang, Wenqing; Chu, Zhuding; Wang, Yuhong

2018-01-01

The Adélie penguin is a well-known indicator for climate and environmental changes. Exploring how large-scale climate variability affects penguin ecology in the past is essential for understanding the responses of Southern Ocean ecosystems to future global change. Using ornithogenic sediments at Cape Bird, Ross Island, Antarctica, we inferred relative population changes of Adélie penguins in the southern Ross Sea over the past 500 yr, and observed an increase in penguin populations during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1500-1850 AD). We used cadmium content in ancient penguin guano as a proxy of ocean upwelling and identified a close linkage between penguin dynamics and atmospheric circulation and oceanic conditions. During the cold period of ∼1600-1825 AD, a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) led to stronger winds, intensified ocean upwelling, enlarged Ross Sea and McMurdo Sound polynyas, and thus higher food abundance and penguin populations. We propose a mechanism linking Antarctic marine ecology and atmospheric/oceanic dynamics which can help explain and predict responses of Antarctic high latitudes ecosystems to climate change.

Evolution on neutral networks accelerates the ticking rate of the molecular clock.

PubMed

Manrubia, Susanna; Cuesta, José A

2015-01-06

Large sets of genotypes give rise to the same phenotype, because phenotypic expression is highly redundant. Accordingly, a population can accept mutations without altering its phenotype, as long as the genotype mutates into another one on the same set. By linking every pair of genotypes that are mutually accessible through mutation, genotypes organize themselves into neutral networks (NNs). These networks are known to be heterogeneous and assortative, and these properties affect the evolutionary dynamics of the population. By studying the dynamics of populations on NNs with arbitrary topology, we analyse the effect of assortativity, of NN (phenotype) fitness and of network size. We find that the probability that the population leaves the network is smaller the longer the time spent on it. This progressive 'phenotypic entrapment' entails a systematic increase in the overdispersion of the process with time and an acceleration in the fixation rate of neutral mutations. We also quantify the variation of these effects with the size of the phenotype and with its fitness relative to that of neighbouring alternatives. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Rare beneficial mutations can halt Muller's ratchet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balick, Daniel; Goyal, Sidhartha; Jerison, Elizabeth; Neher, Richard; Shraiman, Boris; Desai, Michael

2012-02-01

In viral, bacterial, and other asexual populations, the vast majority of non-neutral mutations are deleterious. This motivates the application of models without beneficial mutations. Here we show that the presence of surprisingly few compensatory mutations halts fitness decay in these models. Production of deleterious mutations is balanced by purifying selection, stabilizing the fitness distribution. However, stochastic vanishing of fitness classes can lead to slow fitness decay (i.e. Muller's ratchet). For weakly deleterious mutations, production overwhelms purification, rapidly decreasing population fitness. We show that when beneficial mutations are introduced, a stable steady state emerges in the form of a dynamic mutation-selection balance. We argue this state is generic for all mutation rates and population sizes, and is reached as an end state as genomes become saturated by either beneficial or deleterious mutations. Assuming all mutations have the same magnitude selective effect, we calculate the fraction of beneficial mutations necessary to maintain the dynamic balance. This may explain the unexpected maintenance of asexual genomes, as in mitochondria, in the presence of selection. This will affect in the statistics of genetic diversity in these populations.

Evolution on neutral networks accelerates the ticking rate of the molecular clock

PubMed Central

Manrubia, Susanna; Cuesta, José A.

2015-01-01

Large sets of genotypes give rise to the same phenotype, because phenotypic expression is highly redundant. Accordingly, a population can accept mutations without altering its phenotype, as long as the genotype mutates into another one on the same set. By linking every pair of genotypes that are mutually accessible through mutation, genotypes organize themselves into neutral networks (NNs). These networks are known to be heterogeneous and assortative, and these properties affect the evolutionary dynamics of the population. By studying the dynamics of populations on NNs with arbitrary topology, we analyse the effect of assortativity, of NN (phenotype) fitness and of network size. We find that the probability that the population leaves the network is smaller the longer the time spent on it. This progressive ‘phenotypic entrapment’ entails a systematic increase in the overdispersion of the process with time and an acceleration in the fixation rate of neutral mutations. We also quantify the variation of these effects with the size of the phenotype and with its fitness relative to that of neighbouring alternatives. PMID:25392402

Measles metapopulation dynamics: a gravity model for epidemiological coupling and dynamics.

PubMed

Xia, Yingcun; Bjørnstad, Ottar N; Grenfell, Bryan T

2004-08-01

Infectious diseases provide a particularly clear illustration of the spatiotemporal underpinnings of consumer-resource dynamics. The paradigm is provided by extremely contagious, acute, immunizing childhood infections. Partially synchronized, unstable oscillations are punctuated by local extinctions. This, in turn, can result in spatial differentiation in the timing of epidemics and, depending on the nature of spatial contagion, may result in traveling waves. Measles epidemics are one of a few systems documented well enough to reveal all of these properties and how they are affected by spatiotemporal variations in population structure and demography. On the basis of a gravity coupling model and a time series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) model for local dynamics, we propose a metapopulation model for regional measles dynamics. The model can capture all the major spatiotemporal properties in prevaccination epidemics of measles in England and Wales.

Global dynamics in a stoichiometric food chain model with two limiting nutrients.

PubMed

Chen, Ming; Fan, Meng; Kuang, Yang

2017-07-01

Ecological stoichiometry studies the balance of energy and multiple chemical elements in ecological interactions to establish how the nutrient content affect food-web dynamics and nutrient cycling in ecosystems. In this study, we formulate a food chain with two limiting nutrients in the form of a stoichiometric population model. A comprehensive global analysis of the rich dynamics of the targeted model is explored both analytically and numerically. Chaotic dynamic is observed in this simple stoichiometric food chain model and is compared with traditional model without stoichiometry. The detailed comparison reveals that stoichiometry can reduce the parameter space for chaotic dynamics. Our findings also show that decreasing producer production efficiency may have only a small effect on the consumer growth but a more profound impact on the top predator growth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion.

PubMed

Heikkinen, Risto K; Bocedi, Greta; Kuussaari, Mikko; Heliölä, Janne; Leikola, Niko; Pöyry, Juha; Travis, Justin M J

2014-01-01

Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species' capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits. As an example, we modelled the range expansion dynamics of two butterfly species, one habitat specialist (Maniola jurtina) and one generalist (Issoria lathonia). Our results show that projections of total population size, number of occupied grid cells and the mean maximal latitudinal range shift were all clearly dependent on the choice made between using CORINE land cover data vs. using more detailed grassland data from three alternative national databases. Range expansion was also sensitive to the parameterization of the four considered life-history traits (magnitude and probability of long-distance dispersal events, population growth rate and carrying capacity), with carrying capacity and magnitude of long-distance dispersal showing the strongest effect. Our results highlight the sensitivity of dynamic species population models to the selection of existing land cover data and to uncertainty in the model parameters and indicate that these need to be carefully evaluated before the models are applied to conservation planning.

Fundamental properties of cooperative contagion processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Li; Ghanbarnejad, Fakhteh; Brockmann, Dirk

2017-10-01

We investigate the effects of cooperativity between contagion processes that spread and persist in a host population. We propose and analyze a dynamical model in which individuals that are affected by one transmissible agent A exhibit a higher than baseline propensity of being affected by a second agent B and vice versa. The model is a natural extension of the traditional susceptible-infected-susceptible model used for modeling single contagion processes. We show that cooperativity changes the dynamics of the system considerably when cooperativity is strong. The system exhibits discontinuous phase transitions not observed in single agent contagion, multi-stability, a separation of the traditional epidemic threshold into different thresholds for inception and extinction as well as hysteresis. These properties are robust and are corroborated by stochastic simulations on lattices and generic network topologies. Finally, we investigate wave propagation and transients in a spatially extended version of the model and show that especially for intermediate values of baseline reproduction ratios the system is characterized by various types of wave-front speeds. The system can exhibit spatially heterogeneous stationary states for some parameters and negative front speeds (receding wave fronts). The two agent model can be employed as a starting point for more complex contagion processes, involving several interacting agents, a model framework particularly suitable for modeling the spread and dynamics of microbiological ecosystems in host populations.

Ecological implications of behavioural syndromes.

PubMed

Sih, Andrew; Cote, Julien; Evans, Mara; Fogarty, Sean; Pruitt, Jonathan

2012-03-01

Interspecific trait variation has long served as a conceptual foundation for our understanding of ecological patterns and dynamics. In particular, ecologists recognise the important role that animal behaviour plays in shaping ecological processes. An emerging area of interest in animal behaviour, the study of behavioural syndromes (animal personalities) considers how limited behavioural plasticity, as well as behavioural correlations affects an individual's fitness in diverse ecological contexts. In this article we explore how insights from the concept and study of behavioural syndromes provide fresh understanding of major issues in population ecology. We identify several general mechanisms for how population ecology phenomena can be influenced by a species or population's average behavioural type, by within-species variation in behavioural type, or by behavioural correlations across time or across ecological contexts. We note, in particular, the importance of behavioural type-dependent dispersal in spatial ecology. We then review recent literature and provide new syntheses for how these general mechanisms produce novel insights on five major issues in population ecology: (1) limits to species' distribution and abundance; (2) species interactions; (3) population dynamics; (4) relative responses to human-induced rapid environmental change; and (5) ecological invasions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

The anatomy of a (potential) disaster: Volcanoes, behavior, and population viability of the short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finkelstein, M.E.; Wolf, S.; Goldman, M.; Doak, D.F.; Sievert, P.R.; Balogh, G.; Hasegawa, H.

2010-01-01

Catastrophic events, either from natural (e.g., hurricane) or human-induced (e.g., forest clear-cut) processes, are a well-known threat to wild populations. However, our lack of knowledge about population-level effects of catastrophic events has inhibited the careful examination of how catastrophes affect population growth and persistence. For the critically endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus), episodic volcanic eruptions are considered a serious catastrophic threat since approximately 80% of the global population of ???2500 birds (in 2006) currently breeds on an active volcano, Torishima Island. We evaluated how short-tailed albatross population persistence is affected by the catastrophic threat of a volcanic eruption relative to chronic threats. We also provide an example for overcoming the seemingly overwhelming problems created by modelling the population dynamics of a species with limited demographic data by incorporating uncertainty in our analysis. As such, we constructed a stochastic age-based matrix model that incorporated both catastrophic mortality due to volcanic eruptions and chronic mortality from several potential sources (e.g., contaminant exposure, fisheries bycatch) to determine the relative effects of these two types of threats on short-tailed albatross population growth and persistence. Modest increases (1%) in chronic (annual) mortality had a 2.5-fold greater effect on predicted short-tailed albatross stochastic population growth rate (lambda) than did the occurrence of periodic volcanic eruptions that follow historic eruption frequencies (annual probability of eruption 2.2%). Our work demonstrates that periodic catastrophic volcanic eruptions, despite their dramatic nature, are less likely to affect the population viability and recovery of short-tailed albatross than low-level chronic mortality. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Environmentally driven synchronies of Mediterranean cephalopod populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Stefanie; Quetglas, Antoni; Puerta, Patricia; Bitetto, Isabella; Casciaro, Loredana; Cuccu, Danila; Esteban, Antonio; Garcia, Cristina; Garofalo, Germana; Guijarro, Beatriz; Josephides, Marios; Jadaud, Angelique; Lefkaditou, Evgenia; Maiorano, Porzia; Manfredi, Chiara; Marceta, Bojan; Micallef, Reno; Peristeraki, Panagiota; Relini, Giulio; Sartor, Paolo; Spedicato, Maria Teresa; Tserpes, George; Hidalgo, Manuel

2017-03-01

The Mediterranean Sea is characterized by large scale gradients of temperature, productivity and salinity, in addition to pronounced mesoscale differences. Such a heterogeneous system is expected to shape the population dynamics of marine species. On the other hand, prevailing environmental and climatic conditions at whole basin scale may force spatially distant populations to fluctuate in synchrony. Cephalopods are excellent case studies to test these hypotheses owing to their high sensitivity to environmental conditions. Data of two cephalopod species with contrasting life histories (benthic octopus vs nectobenthic squid), obtained from scientific surveys carried out throughout the Mediterranean during the last 20 years were analyzed. The objectives of this study and the methods used to achieve them (in parentheses) were: (i) to investigate synchronies in spatially separated populations (decorrelation analysis); (ii) detect underlying common abundance trends over distant regions (dynamic factor analysis, DFA); and (iii) analyse putative influences of key environmental drivers such as productivity and sea surface temperature on the population dynamics at regional scale (general linear models, GLM). In accordance with their contrasting spatial mobility, the distance from where synchrony could no longer be detected (decorrelation scale) was higher in squid than in octopus (349 vs 217 km); for comparison, the maximum distance between locations was 2620 km. The DFA revealed a general increasing trend in the abundance of both species in most areas, which agrees with the already reported worldwide proliferation of cephalopods. DFA results also showed that population dynamics are more similar in the eastern than in the western Mediterranean basin. According to the GLM models, cephalopod populations were negatively affected by productivity, which would be explained by an increase of competition and predation by fishes. While warmer years coincided with declining octopus numbers, areas of high sea surface temperature showed higher densities of squid. Our results are relevant for regional fisheries management and demonstrate that the regionalisation objectives envisaged under the new Common Fishery Policy may not be adequate for Mediterranean cephalopod stocks.

A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McRae, B.H.; Schumaker, N.H.; McKane, R.B.; Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; Burdick, C.A.

2008-01-01

Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited dispersal, our framework predicted population changes that typically exceeded those expected based on changes in mean habitat suitability alone. Although land-use had greater impacts on habitat quality than did climate change in our simulations, we found that small changes in vital rates resulting from climate change or other stressors can have large consequences for population trajectories. The ability to integrate bottom-up demographic processes like these with top-down constraints imposed by climate and land-use in a dynamic modeling environment is a key advantage of our approach. The resulting framework should allow researchers to synthesize existing empirical evidence, and to explore complex interactions that are difficult or impossible to capture through piecemeal modeling approaches. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Identifying data gaps and prioritizing restoration strategies for Fremont cottonwood using linked geomorphic and population models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, E. B.; Stella, J. C.; Fremier, A. K.

2009-12-01

Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii) is an important component of semi-arid riparian ecosystems throughout western North America, but its populations are in decline due to flow regulation. Achieving a balance between human resource needs and riparian ecosystem function requires a mechanistic understanding of the multiple geomorphic and biological factors affecting tree recruitment and survival, including the timing and magnitude of river flows, and the concomitant influence on suitable habitat creation and mortality from scour and sedimentation burial. Despite a great deal of empirical research on some components of the system, such as factors affecting cottonwood recruitment, other key components are less studied. Yet understanding the relative influence of the full suite of physical and life-history drivers is critical to modeling whole-population dynamics under changing environmental conditions. We addressed these issues for the Fremont cottonwood population along the Sacramento River, CA using a sensitivity analysis approach to quantify uncertainty in parameters on the outcomes of a patch-based, dynamic population model. Using a broad range of plausible values for 15 model parameters that represent key physical, biological and climatic components of the ecosystem, we ran 1,000 population simulations that consisted of a subset of 14.3 million possible combinations of parameter estimates to predict the frequency of patch colonization and total forest habitat predicted to occur under current hydrologic conditions after 175 years. Results indicate that Fremont cottonwood populations are highly sensitive to the interactions among flow regime, sedimentation rate and the depth of the capillary fringe (Fig. 1). Estimates of long-term floodplain sedimentation rate would substantially improve model accuracy. Spatial variation in sediment texture was also important to the extent that it determines the depth of the capillary fringe, which regulates the availability of water for germination and adult tree growth. Our sensitivity analyses suggest that models of future scenarios should incorporate regional climate change projections because changes in temperature and the timing and volume of precipitation affects sensitive aspects of the system, including the timing of seed release and spring snowmelt runoff. Figure 1. The relative effects on model predictions of uncertainty around each parameter included in the patch-based population model for Fremont cottonwood.

Population Genetic Structure of a Widespread Bat-Pollinated Columnar Cactus

PubMed Central

Bustamante, Enriquena; Búrquez, Alberto; Scheinvar, Enrique; Eguiarte, Luis Enrique

2016-01-01

Bats are the main pollinators and seed dispersers of Stenocereus thurberi, a xenogamous columnar cactus of northwestern Mexico and a good model to illustrate spatial dynamics of gene flow in long-lived species. Previous studies in this cactus showed differences among populations in the type and abundance of pollinators, and in the timing of flowering and fruiting. In this study we analyzed genetic variability and population differentiation among populations. We used three primers of ISSR to analyze within and among populations genetic variation from eight widely separated populations of S. thurberi in Sonora, Mexico. Sixty-six out of 99 of the ISSR bands (P = 66.7%) were polymorphic. Total heterozygosity for all populations sampled revealed high genetic diversity (Hsp = 0.207, HBT = 0.224). The AMOVA showed that most of the genetic variation was within populations (80.5%). At the species level, estimates of population differentiation, θ = 0.175 and θB = 0.194, indicated moderate gene flow among populations. The absence of a significant correlation between genetic and geographic distances indicated little isolation by geographic distance. The large genetic variation and diversity found in S. thurberi is consistent with its open reproductive system and the high mobility of bats, a major pollinator. However, small changes in number or kind of pollinators and seed dispersal agents, in the directionality of migratory routes, and/or in the timing of flowering and fruiting among populations, can critically affect gene flow dynamics. PMID:27015281

Modeling tradeoffs in avian life history traits and consequences for population growth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, M.E.; Martin, T.E.

2007-01-01

Variation in population dynamics is inherently related to life history characteristics of species, which vary markedly even within phylogenetic groups such as passerine birds. We computed the finite rate of population change (??) from a matrix projection model and from mark-recapture observations for 23 bird species breeding in northern Arizona. We used sensitivity analyses and a simulation model to separate contributions of different life history traits to population growth rate. In particular we focused on contrasting effects of components of reproduction (nest success, clutch size, number of clutches, and juvenile survival) versus adult survival on ??. We explored how changes in nest success or adult survival coupled to costs in other life history parameters affected ?? over a life history gradient provided by our 23 Arizona species, as well as a broader sample of 121 North American passerine species. We further examined these effects for more than 200 passeriform and piciform populations breeding across North America. Model simulations indicate nest success and juvenile survival exert the largest effects on population growth in species with moderate to high reproductive output, whereas adult survival contributed more to population growth in long-lived species. Our simulations suggest that monitoring breeding success in populations across a broad geographic area provides an important index for identifying neotropical migratory populations at risk of serious population declines and a potential method for identifying large-scale mechanisms regulating population dynamics. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Water-level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species

PubMed Central

Nevado, B; Mautner, S; Sturmbauer, C; Verheyen, E

2013-01-01

Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water-level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison with the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake-level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids. PMID:23837841

Water-level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species.

PubMed

Nevado, B; Mautner, S; Sturmbauer, C; Verheyen, E

2013-08-01

Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water-level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison with the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake-level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population Genetic Structure of a Widespread Bat-Pollinated Columnar Cactus.

PubMed

Bustamante, Enriquena; Búrquez, Alberto; Scheinvar, Enrique; Eguiarte, Luis Enrique

2016-01-01

Bats are the main pollinators and seed dispersers of Stenocereus thurberi, a xenogamous columnar cactus of northwestern Mexico and a good model to illustrate spatial dynamics of gene flow in long-lived species. Previous studies in this cactus showed differences among populations in the type and abundance of pollinators, and in the timing of flowering and fruiting. In this study we analyzed genetic variability and population differentiation among populations. We used three primers of ISSR to analyze within and among populations genetic variation from eight widely separated populations of S. thurberi in Sonora, Mexico. Sixty-six out of 99 of the ISSR bands (P = 66.7%) were polymorphic. Total heterozygosity for all populations sampled revealed high genetic diversity (Hsp = 0.207, HBT = 0.224). The AMOVA showed that most of the genetic variation was within populations (80.5%). At the species level, estimates of population differentiation, θ = 0.175 and θB = 0.194, indicated moderate gene flow among populations. The absence of a significant correlation between genetic and geographic distances indicated little isolation by geographic distance. The large genetic variation and diversity found in S. thurberi is consistent with its open reproductive system and the high mobility of bats, a major pollinator. However, small changes in number or kind of pollinators and seed dispersal agents, in the directionality of migratory routes, and/or in the timing of flowering and fruiting among populations, can critically affect gene flow dynamics.

X-ray Source Populations in Old Open Clusters - Collinder 261

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vats, Smriti

2014-11-01

We are carrying out an X-ray survey of old open clusters (OCs) with the Chandra X-ray Observatory. Single old stars emit very faint X-rays, making X-rays produced by mass transfer in CVs, or by rapid rotation of the stars in tidally-locked, detached binaries detectable, without contamination from single stars. By comparing properties of interacting binaries in different environments, we aim to study binary evolution, and how dynamical encounters with other cluster members affect it. Collinder (Cr) 261 is an old OC(~7Gyr), with one of the richest populations inferred, of close binary populations and blue stragglers of all OCs. We will present the first results, detailing the X-ray population of Cr 261, in conjugation with other OCs, and in comparison with populations in globular clusters.

A test of the compensatory mortality hypothesis in mountain lions: a management experiment in West-Central Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Hugh S.; Desimone, Richard; Hartway, Cynthia; Gude, Justin A.; Thompson, Michael J.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Hebblewhite, Mark

2014-01-01

Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are widely hunted for recreation, population control, and to reduce conflict with humans, but much is still unknown regarding the effects of harvest on mountain lion population dynamics. Whether human hunting mortality on mountain lions is additive or compensatory is debated. Our primary objective was to investigate population effects of harvest on mountain lions. We addressed this objective with a management experiment of 3 years of intensive harvest followed by a 6-year recovery period. In December 2000, after 3 years of hunting, approximately 66% of a single game management unit within the Blackfoot River watershed in Montana was closed to lion hunting, effectively creating a refuge representing approximately 12% (915 km2) of the total study area (7,908 km2). Hunting continued in the remainder of the study area, but harvest levels declined from approximately 9/1,000 km2 in 2001 to 2/1,000 km2 in 2006 as a result of the protected area and reduced quotas outside. We radiocollared 117 mountain lions from 1998 to 2006. We recorded known fates for 63 animals, and right-censored the remainder. Although hunting directly reduced survival, parameters such as litter size, birth interval, maternity, age at dispersal, and age of first reproduction were not significantly affected. Sensitivity analysis showed that female survival and maternity were most influential on population growth. Life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) demonstrated the effect of hunting on the population dynamics of mountain lions. In our non-hunted population, reproduction (kitten survival and maternity) accounted for approximately 62% of the variation in growth rate, whereas adult female survival accounted for 30%. Hunting reversed this, increasing the reliance of population growth on adult female survival (45% of the variation in population growth), and away from reproduction (12%). Our research showed that harvest at the levels implemented in this study did not affect population productivity (i.e., maternity), but had an additive effect on mountain lion mortality, and therefore population growth. Through harvest, wildlife managers have the ability to control mountain lion populations.

Coral population dynamics across consecutive mass mortality events.

PubMed

Riegl, Bernhard; Purkis, Sam

2015-11-01

Annual coral mortality events due to increased atmospheric heat may occur regularly from the middle of the century and are considered apocalyptic for coral reefs. In the Arabian/Persian Gulf, this situation has already occurred and population dynamics of four widespread corals (Acropora downingi, Porites harrisoni, Dipsastrea pallida, Cyphastrea micropthalma) were examined across the first-ever occurrence of four back-to-back mass mortality events (2009-2012). Mortality was driven by diseases in 2009, bleaching and subsequent diseases in 2010/2011/2012. 2009 reduced P. harrisoni cover and size, the other events increasingly reduced overall cover (2009: -10%; 2010: -20%; 2011: -20%; 2012: -15%) and affected all examined species. Regeneration was only observed after the first disturbance. P. harrisoni and A. downingi severely declined from 2010 due to bleaching and subsequent white syndromes, while D. pallida and P. daedalea declined from 2011 due to bleaching and black-band disease. C. microphthalma cover was not affected. In all species, most large corals were lost while fission due to partial tissue mortality bolstered small size classes. This general shrinkage led to a decrease of coral cover and a dramatic reduction of fecundity. Transition matrices for disturbed and undisturbed conditions were evaluated as Life Table Response Experiment and showed that C. microphthalma changed the least in size-class dynamics and fecundity, suggesting they were 'winners'. In an ordered 'degradation cascade', impacts decreased from the most common to the least common species, leading to step-wise removal of previously dominant species. A potentially permanent shift from high- to low-coral cover with different coral community and size structure can be expected due to the demographic dynamics resultant from the disturbances. Similarities to degradation of other Caribbean and Pacific reefs are discussed. As comparable environmental conditions and mortality patterns must be expected worldwide, demographic collapse of many other coral populations may soon be widespread. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish.

PubMed

Sakaris, Peter C; Irwin, Elise R

2010-03-01

We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotic fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes.

Finite metapopulation models with density-dependent migration and stochastic local dynamics

PubMed Central

Saether, B.-E.; Engen, S.; Lande, R.

1999-01-01

The effects of small density-dependent migration on the dynamics of a metapopulation are studied in a model with stochastic local dynamics. We use a diffusion approximation to study how changes in the migration rate and habitat occupancy affect the rates of local colonization and extinction. If the emigration rate increases or if the immigration rate decreases with local population size, a positive expected rate of change in habitat occupancy is found for a greater range of habitat occupancies than when the migration is density-independent. In contrast, the reverse patterns of density dependence in respective emigration and immigration reduce the range of habitat occupancies where the metapopulation will be viable. This occurs because density-dependent migration strongly influences both the establishment and rescue effects in the local dynamics of metapopulations.

Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany - a mathematical modelling study.

PubMed

Horn, Johannes; Damm, Oliver; Greiner, Wolfgang; Hengel, Hartmut; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E; Siedler, Anette; Ultsch, Bernhard; Weidemann, Felix; Wichmann, Ole; Karch, André; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2018-01-09

Epidemiological studies suggest that reduced exposure to varicella might lead to an increased risk for herpes zoster (HZ). Reduction of exposure to varicella is a consequence of varicella vaccination but also of demographic changes. We analyzed how the combination of vaccination programs and demographic dynamics will affect the epidemiology of varicella and HZ in Germany over the next 50 years. We used a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of different varicella and HZ vaccination strategies on varicella and HZ epidemiology in three demographic scenarios, namely the projected population for Germany, the projected population additionally accounting for increased immigration as observed in 2015/2016, and a stationary population. Projected demographic changes alone result in an increase of annual HZ cases by 18.3% and a decrease of varicella cases by 45.7% between 1990 and 2060. Independently of the demographic scenario, varicella vaccination reduces the cumulative number of varicella cases until 2060 by approximately 70%, but also increases HZ cases by 10%. Unlike the currently licensed live attenuated HZ vaccine, the new subunit vaccine candidate might completely counteract this effect. Relative vaccine effects were consistent across all demographic scenarios. Demographic dynamics will be a major determinant of HZ epidemiology in the next 50 years. While stationary population models are appropriate for assessing vaccination impact, models incorporating realistic population structures allow a direct comparison to surveillance data and can thus provide additional input for immunization decision-making and resource planning.

Transient recovery dynamics of a predator-prey system under press and pulse disturbances.

PubMed

Karakoç, Canan; Singer, Alexander; Johst, Karin; Harms, Hauke; Chatzinotas, Antonis

2017-04-04

Species recovery after disturbances depends on the strength and duration of disturbance, on the species traits and on the biotic interactions with other species. In order to understand these complex relationships, it is essential to understand mechanistically the transient dynamics of interacting species during and after disturbances. We combined microcosm experiments with simulation modelling and studied the transient recovery dynamics of a simple microbial food web under pulse and press disturbances and under different predator couplings to an alternative resource. Our results reveal that although the disturbances affected predator and prey populations by the same mortality, predator populations suffered for a longer time. The resulting diminished predation stress caused a temporary phase of high prey population sizes (i.e. prey release) during and even after disturbances. Increasing duration and strength of disturbances significantly slowed down the recovery time of the predator prolonging the phase of prey release. However, the additional coupling of the predator to an alternative resource allowed the predator to recover faster after the disturbances thus shortening the phase of prey release. Our findings are not limited to the studied system and can be used to understand the dynamic response and recovery potential of many natural predator-prey or host-pathogen systems. They can be applied, for instance, in epidemiological and conservational contexts to regulate prey release or to avoid extinction risk of the top trophic levels under different types of disturbances.

Seasonal hyporheic dynamics control coupled microbiology and geochemistry in Colorado River sediments

DOE PAGES

Danczak, Robert E.; Sawyer, Audrey H.; Williams, Kenneth H.; ...

2016-12-03

Riverbed microbial communities play an oversized role in many watershed ecosystem functions, including the processing of organic carbon, cycling of nitrogen, and alterations to metal mobility. The structure and activity of microbial assemblages depend in part on geochemical conditions set by river-groundwater exchange or hyporheic exchange. In order to assess how seasonal changes in river-groundwater mixing affect these populations in a snowmelt-dominated fluvial system, vertical sediment and pore water profiles were sampled at three time points at one location in the hyporheic zone of the Colorado River and analyzed by using geochemical measurements, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and ecological modeling.more » Oxic river water penetrated deepest into the subsurface during peak river discharge, while under base flow conditions, anoxic groundwater dominated shallower depths. Over a 70 cm thick interval, riverbed sediments were therefore exposed to seasonally fluctuating redox conditions and hosted microbial populations statistically different from those at both shallower and deeper locations. Additionally, microbial populations within this zone were shown to be the most dynamic across sampling time points, underlining the critical role that hyporheic mixing plays in constraining microbial abundances. Given such mixing effects, we anticipate that future changes in river discharge in mountainous, semiarid western U.S. watersheds may affect microbial community structure and function in riverbed environments, with potential implications for biogeochemical processes in riparian regions.« less

Seasonal hyporheic dynamics control coupled microbiology and geochemistry in Colorado River sediments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Danczak, Robert E.; Sawyer, Audrey H.; Williams, Kenneth H.

Riverbed microbial communities play an oversized role in many watershed ecosystem functions, including the processing of organic carbon, cycling of nitrogen, and alterations to metal mobility. The structure and activity of microbial assemblages depend in part on geochemical conditions set by river-groundwater exchange or hyporheic exchange. In order to assess how seasonal changes in river-groundwater mixing affect these populations in a snowmelt-dominated fluvial system, vertical sediment and pore water profiles were sampled at three time points at one location in the hyporheic zone of the Colorado River and analyzed by using geochemical measurements, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and ecological modeling.more » Oxic river water penetrated deepest into the subsurface during peak river discharge, while under base flow conditions, anoxic groundwater dominated shallower depths. Over a 70 cm thick interval, riverbed sediments were therefore exposed to seasonally fluctuating redox conditions and hosted microbial populations statistically different from those at both shallower and deeper locations. Additionally, microbial populations within this zone were shown to be the most dynamic across sampling time points, underlining the critical role that hyporheic mixing plays in constraining microbial abundances. Given such mixing effects, we anticipate that future changes in river discharge in mountainous, semiarid western U.S. watersheds may affect microbial community structure and function in riverbed environments, with potential implications for biogeochemical processes in riparian regions.« less

Seasonal hyporheic dynamics control coupled microbiology and geochemistry in Colorado River sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danczak, Robert E.; Sawyer, Audrey H.; Williams, Kenneth H.; Stegen, James C.; Hobson, Chad; Wilkins, Michael J.

2016-12-01

Riverbed microbial communities play an oversized role in many watershed ecosystem functions, including the processing of organic carbon, cycling of nitrogen, and alterations to metal mobility. The structure and activity of microbial assemblages depend in part on geochemical conditions set by river-groundwater exchange or hyporheic exchange. To assess how seasonal changes in river-groundwater mixing affect these populations in a snowmelt-dominated fluvial system, vertical sediment and pore water profiles were sampled at three time points at one location in the hyporheic zone of the Colorado River and analyzed by using geochemical measurements, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and ecological modeling. Oxic river water penetrated deepest into the subsurface during peak river discharge, while under base flow conditions, anoxic groundwater dominated shallower depths. Over a 70 cm thick interval, riverbed sediments were therefore exposed to seasonally fluctuating redox conditions and hosted microbial populations statistically different from those at both shallower and deeper locations. Additionally, microbial populations within this zone were shown to be the most dynamic across sampling time points, underlining the critical role that hyporheic mixing plays in constraining microbial abundances. Given such mixing effects, we anticipate that future changes in river discharge in mountainous, semiarid western U.S. watersheds may affect microbial community structure and function in riverbed environments, with potential implications for biogeochemical processes in riparian regions.

Characterizing Total Radiation Belt Electron Content Using Van Allen Probes Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, C. L.; Spence, H. E.; Boyd, A. J.; Jordan, A.; Paulson, K. W.; Zhang, J.; Blake, J. B.; Kletzing, C.

2014-12-01

The comprehensive particle and wave measurements of the Van Allen Probes enable us to monitor the entire radiation belt near the equator from L-shells of 2.5 to 6. Using the particle measurements, we create an improved, high-level quantity representing the entire outer belt. This quantity, the total radiation belt electron content (TRBEC), is the half-orbit sum of outer belt electrons over the radiation belt energy ranges of importance and all pitch angles using data from RBSP-ECT instrument on board both spacecraft. The goal is to characterize statistically the dynamics of the entire radiation belt by comparing TRBEC with solar wind parameters, magnetospheric waves, and electron seed population. When comparing TRBEC with solar wind velocity, our result shows a triangle-distribution similar to that which Reeves et al. (2011) found using geosynchronous electron flux. We also correlate TRBEC with other solar wind parameters to identify which solar wind conditions effectively enhance or deplete radiation belt electrons. In addition, plasma waves in the inner magnetosphere, via wave-particle interaction, are key elements affecting the dynamics of the radiation belt. Therefore, we compare TRBEC with integrated EMIC and chorus (upper and lower bands) wave power calculated from EMFISIS wave measurements to determine the relative importance between each wave-particle process. Finally, we demonstrate the ~100 keV seed population's characteristics that correspond to the MeV population enhancement. While the gross features of the two populations are similar, the MeV population's dynamics lag behind those of the seed population by 5 to 60 hours, which implies the acceleration or loss processes vary by event.

The danger within: the role of genetic, behavioural and ecological factors in population persistence of colour polymorphic species.

PubMed

Bolton, Peri E; Rollins, Lee A; Griffith, Simon C

2015-06-01

Polymorphic species have been the focus of important work in evolutionary biology. It has been suggested that colour polymorphic species have specific evolutionary and population dynamics that enable them to persist through environmental changes better than less variable species. We suggest that recent empirical and theoretical work indicates that polymorphic species may be more vulnerable to extinction than previously thought. This vulnerability arises because these species often have a number of correlated sexual, behavioural, life history and ecological traits, which can have a simple genetic underpinning. When exacerbated by environmental change, these alternate strategies can lead to conflict between morphs at the genomic and population levels, which can directly or indirectly affect population and evolutionary dynamics. In this perspective, we identify a number of ways in which the nature of the correlated traits, their underpinning genetic architecture, and the inevitable interactions between colour morphs can result in a reduction in population fitness. The principles illustrated here apply to all kinds of discrete polymorphism (e.g. behavioural syndromes), but we focus primarily on colour polymorphism because they are well studied. We urge further empirical investigation of the genetic architecture and interactions in polymorphic species to elucidate the impact on population fitness. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recovery of Durvillaea antarctica (Durvilleales) inside and outside Las Cruces Marine Reserve, Chile.

PubMed

Castilla, J C; Campo, M A; Bustamante, R H

2007-07-01

We present the results for over two decades of monitoring on intertidal food-gatherers and the population of the low rocky shore dweller kelp Durvillaea antarctica, a short-distance disperser, inside and outside the no-take marine reserve, Estacion Costera de Investigaciones Marinas (ECIM), at Las Cruces, central Chile. It was hypothesized that protection of an initially extremely depleted population would recover by recolonizing first the no-take area and then adjacent non-protected (exploited) areas. We found that recovery of D. antarctica occurred slowly inside ECIM, with increase in density and biomass, of up to three orders of magnitude as compared to an adjacent non-protected area, which showed approximately 2-yr delay. These results suggest that the kelp population inside ECIM was likely regulated via intraspecific competition, which did not occur outside. Results showed no evidence for juvenile vs. adult density dependence other than a weak relationship for the central area of ECIM. These findings also suggest that the population recovery and cross-boundary seeding subsides affected the population dynamics. Understanding these dynamics may enhance management and conservation policies. Our work highlights the critical value of baseline and long-term comparative studies in marine no-take protected and non-protected areas for understanding how population processes respond to human and conservation practices.

Modelling the Dynamics of Post-Vaccination Immunity Rate in a Population of Sahelian Sheep after a Vaccination Campaign against Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus

PubMed Central

Lancelot, Renaud; Lesnoff, Matthieu

2016-01-01

Background Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an acute infectious viral disease affecting domestic small ruminants (sheep and goats) and some wild ruminant species in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. A global PPR control strategy based on mass vaccination—in regions where PPR is endemic—was recently designed and launched by international organizations. Sahelian Africa is one of the most challenging endemic regions for PPR control. Indeed, strong seasonal and annual variations in mating, mortality and offtake rates result in a complex population dynamics which might in turn alter the population post-vaccination immunity rate (PIR), and thus be important to consider for the implementation of vaccination campaigns. Methods In a context of preventive vaccination in epidemiological units without PPR virus transmission, we developed a predictive, dynamic model based on a seasonal matrix population model to simulate PIR dynamics. This model was mostly calibrated with demographic and epidemiological parameters estimated from a long-term follow-up survey of small ruminant herds. We used it to simulate the PIR dynamics following a single PPR vaccination campaign in a Sahelian sheep population, and to assess the effects of (i) changes in offtake rate related to the Tabaski (a Muslim feast following the lunar calendar), and (ii) the date of implementation of the vaccination campaigns. Results The persistence of PIR was not influenced by the Tabaski date. Decreasing the vaccination coverage from 100 to 80% had limited effects on PIR. However, lower vaccination coverage did not provide sufficient immunity rates (PIR < 70%). As a trade-off between model predictions and other considerations like animal physiological status, and suitability for livestock farmers, we would suggest to implement vaccination campaigns in September-October. This model is a first step towards better decision support for animal health authorities. It might be adapted to other species, livestock farming systems or diseases. PMID:27603710

Sympatric occurrence and population dynamics of Scylla spp. in equatorial climate: Effects of rainfall, temperature and lunar phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazhan, Hanafiah; Waiho, Khor; Darin Azri, Mohammad Farhan; Al-Hafiz, Ismail; Norfaizza, Wan Ibrahim Wan; Megat, Fadhlul Hazmi; Jasmani, Safiah; Ma, Hongyu; Ikhwanuddin, Mhd

2017-11-01

Mud crabs (Scylla spp.) are known to exist sympatrically in the wild. However, information on their population dynamics and the influence of climate parameters and lunar phase, especially along the equatorial region, are limited. Four sampling stations representing three seas (the Strait of Malacca, South China Sea and Sulu Sea) along the equator were selected. Mud crabs were collected using baited traps during spring tides from April 2012 to July 2013. All three Scylla species, S. olivacea, S. tranquebarica and S. paramamosain live in sympatry in the three seas. Scylla olivacea is the most prevalent species in the Strait of Malacca and South China Sea, whereas S. paramamosain dominates the Sulu Sea. The total crab abundance was not affected by rainfall or temperature. The abundance of S. tranquebarica in Strait of Malacca was negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with rainfall whereas the abundance of S. paramamosain positively correlated with temperature only at South China Sea. Scylla tranquebarica was the largest in terms of body size and it showed interchanging abundance trends with S. paramamosain. The average body size of S. paramamosain did not differ significantly with that of S. tranquebarica and S. olivacea. This decrease is most likely attributed to overfishing. Significant seasonal fluctuations in mean carapace width were detected in S. tranquebarica and S. paramamosain, but not in S. olivacea. The monthly sex ratio of all three species occasionally fluctuates above the equal sex ratio value. Lunar phase did not affect species abundance, but males and females were significantly heavier during full moon. These findings serve as a baseline of seasonal variation in crab population dynamics that are useful in mud crab fisheries and resource management.

Wildlife disease ecology from the individual to the population: Insights from a long-term study of a naturally infected European badger population.

PubMed

McDonald, Jenni L; Robertson, Andrew; Silk, Matthew J

2018-01-01

Long-term individual-based datasets on host-pathogen systems are a rare and valuable resource for understanding the infectious disease dynamics in wildlife. A study of European badgers (Meles meles) naturally infected with bovine tuberculosis (bTB) at Woodchester Park in Gloucestershire (UK) has produced a unique dataset, facilitating investigation of a diverse range of epidemiological and ecological questions with implications for disease management. Since the 1970s, this badger population has been monitored with a systematic mark-recapture regime yielding a dataset of >15,000 captures of >3,000 individuals, providing detailed individual life-history, morphometric, genetic, reproductive and disease data. The annual prevalence of bTB in the Woodchester Park badger population exhibits no straightforward relationship with population density, and both the incidence and prevalence of Mycobacterium bovis show marked variation in space. The study has revealed phenotypic traits that are critical for understanding the social structure of badger populations along with mechanisms vital for understanding disease spread at different spatial resolutions. Woodchester-based studies have provided key insights into how host ecology can influence infection at different spatial and temporal scales. Specifically, it has revealed heterogeneity in epidemiological parameters; intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting population dynamics; provided insights into senescence and individual life histories; and revealed consistent individual variation in foraging patterns, refuge use and social interactions. An improved understanding of ecological and epidemiological processes is imperative for effective disease management. Woodchester Park research has provided information of direct relevance to bTB management, and a better appreciation of the role of individual heterogeneity in disease transmission can contribute further in this regard. The Woodchester Park study system now offers a rare opportunity to seek a dynamic understanding of how individual-, group- and population-level processes interact. The wealth of existing data makes it possible to take a more integrative approach to examining how the consequences of individual heterogeneity scale to determine population-level pathogen dynamics and help advance our understanding of the ecological drivers of host-pathogen systems. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

North American Brant: Effects of changes in habitat and climate on population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, David H.; Reed, Austin; Sedinger, James S.; Black, Jeffrey M.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Castelli, Paul M.

2005-01-01

We describe the importance of key habitats used by four nesting populations of nearctic brant (Branta bernicla) and discuss the potential relationship between changes in these habitats and population dynamics of brant. Nearctic brant, in contrast to most geese, rely on marine habitats and native intertidal plants during the non-breeding season, particularly the seagrass, Zostera, and the macroalgae, Ulva. Atlantic and Eastern High Arctic brant have experienced the greatest degradation of their winter habitats (northeastern United States and Ireland, respectively) and have also shown the most plasticity in feeding behavior. Black and Western High Arctic brant of the Pacific Flyway are the most dependent on Zostera, and are undergoing a shift in winter distribution that is likely related to climate change and its associated effects on Zostera dynamics. Variation in breeding propensity of Black Brant associated with winter location and climate strongly suggests that food abundance on the wintering grounds directly affects reproductive performance in these geese. In summer, salt marshes, especially those containing Carex and Puccinellia, are key habitats for raising young, while lake shorelines with fine freshwater grasses and sedges are important for molting birds. Availability and abundance of salt marshes has a direct effect on growth and recruitment of goslings and ultimately, plays an important role in regulating size of local brant populations. ?? 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Abundance, survival, recruitment and effectiveness of sterilization of free-roaming dogs: A capture and recapture study in Brazil

PubMed Central

Struchiner, Claudio José; Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro; Teixeira Neto, Rafael Gonçalves; Tonelli, Gabriel Barbosa; de Carvalho Júnior, Clóvis Gomes; Ribeiro, Renata Aparecida Nascimento; da Silva, Eduardo Sérgio

2017-01-01

The existence of free-roaming dogs raises important issues in animal welfare and in public health. A proper understanding of these animals’ ecology is useful as a necessary input to plan strategies to control these populations. The present study addresses the population dynamics and the effectiveness of the sterilization of unrestricted dogs using capture and recapture procedures suitable for open animal populations. Every two months, over a period of 14 months, we captured, tagged, released and recaptured dogs in two regions in a city in the southeast region of Brazil. In one of these regions the animals were also sterilized. Both regions had similar social, environmental and demographic features. We estimated the presence of 148 females and 227 males during the period of study. The average dog:man ratio was 1 dog for each 42 and 51 human beings, in the areas without and with sterilization, respectively. The animal population size increased in both regions, due mainly to the abandonment of domestic dogs. Mortality rate decreased throughout the study period. Survival probabilities did not differ between genders, but males entered the population in higher numbers. There were no differences in abundance, survival and recruitment between the regions, indicating that sterilization did not affect the population dynamics. Our findings indicate that the observed animal dynamics were influenced by density-independent factors, and that sterilization might not be a viable and effective strategy in regions where availability of resources is low and animal abandonment rates are high. Furthermore, the high demographic turnover rates observed render the canine free-roaming population younger, thus more susceptible to diseases, especially to rabies and leishmaniasis. We conclude by stressing the importance of implementing educational programs to promote responsible animal ownership and effective strategies against abandonment practices. PMID:29091961

Abundance, survival, recruitment and effectiveness of sterilization of free-roaming dogs: A capture and recapture study in Brazil.

PubMed

Belo, Vinícius Silva; Struchiner, Claudio José; Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro; Teixeira Neto, Rafael Gonçalves; Tonelli, Gabriel Barbosa; de Carvalho Júnior, Clóvis Gomes; Ribeiro, Renata Aparecida Nascimento; da Silva, Eduardo Sérgio

2017-01-01

The existence of free-roaming dogs raises important issues in animal welfare and in public health. A proper understanding of these animals' ecology is useful as a necessary input to plan strategies to control these populations. The present study addresses the population dynamics and the effectiveness of the sterilization of unrestricted dogs using capture and recapture procedures suitable for open animal populations. Every two months, over a period of 14 months, we captured, tagged, released and recaptured dogs in two regions in a city in the southeast region of Brazil. In one of these regions the animals were also sterilized. Both regions had similar social, environmental and demographic features. We estimated the presence of 148 females and 227 males during the period of study. The average dog:man ratio was 1 dog for each 42 and 51 human beings, in the areas without and with sterilization, respectively. The animal population size increased in both regions, due mainly to the abandonment of domestic dogs. Mortality rate decreased throughout the study period. Survival probabilities did not differ between genders, but males entered the population in higher numbers. There were no differences in abundance, survival and recruitment between the regions, indicating that sterilization did not affect the population dynamics. Our findings indicate that the observed animal dynamics were influenced by density-independent factors, and that sterilization might not be a viable and effective strategy in regions where availability of resources is low and animal abandonment rates are high. Furthermore, the high demographic turnover rates observed render the canine free-roaming population younger, thus more susceptible to diseases, especially to rabies and leishmaniasis. We conclude by stressing the importance of implementing educational programs to promote responsible animal ownership and effective strategies against abandonment practices.

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

2012-01-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

Developing a model for cystic fibrosis sociomicrobiology based on antibiotic and environmental stress.

PubMed

Lopes, Susana Patrícia; Azevedo, Nuno Filipe; Pereira, Maria Olívia

2017-12-01

Cystic fibrosis (CF) infections are invariably biofilm-mediated and polymicrobial, being safe to assume that a myriad of factors affects the sociomicrobiology within the CF infection site and modulate the CF community dynamics, by shaping their social activities, overall functions, virulence, ultimately affecting disease outcome. This work aimed to assess changes in the dynamics (particularly on the microbial composition) of dual-/three-species biofilms involving CF-classical (Pseudomonas aeruginosa) and unusual species (Inquilinus limosus and Dolosigranulum pigrum), according to variable oxygen conditions and antibiotic exposure. Low fluctuations in biofilm compositions were observed across distinct oxygen environments, with dual-species biofilms exhibiting similar relative proportions and P. aeruginosa and/or D. pigrum populations dominating three-species consortia. Once exposed to antibiotics, biofilms displayed high resistance profiles, and microbial compositions, distributions, and microbial interactions significantly challenged. The antibiotic/oxygen environment supported such fluctuations, which enhanced for three-species communities. In conclusion, antibiotic therapy hugely disturbed CF communities' dynamics, inducing significant compositional changes on multispecies consortia. Clearly, multiple perturbations may disturb this dynamic, giving rise to various microbiological scenarios in vivo, and affecting disease phenotype. Therefore, an appreciation of the ecological/evolutionary nature within CF communities will be useful for the optimal use of current therapies and for newer breakthroughs on CF antibiotherapy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Analysis and prediction of pest dynamics in an agroforestry context using Tiko'n, a generic tool to develop food web models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojas, Marcela; Malard, Julien; Adamowski, Jan; Carrera, Jaime Luis; Maas, Raúl

2017-04-01

While it is known that climate change will impact future plant-pest population dynamics, potentially affecting crop damage, agroforestry with its enhanced biodiversity is said to reduce the outbreaks of pest insects by providing natural enemies for the control of pest populations. This premise is known in the literature as the natural enemy hypothesis and has been widely studied qualitatively. However, disagreement still exists on whether biodiversity enhancement reduces pest outbreaks, showing the need of quantitatively understanding the mechanisms behind the interactions between pests and natural enemies, also known as trophic interactions. Crop pest models that study insect population dynamics in agroforestry contexts are very rare, and pest models that take trophic interactions into account are even rarer. This may be due to the difficulty of representing complex food webs in a quantifiable model. There is therefore a need for validated food web models that allow users to predict the response of these webs to changes in climate in agroforestry systems. In this study we present Tiko'n, a Python-based software whose API allows users to rapidly build and validate trophic web models; the program uses a Bayesian inference approach to calibrate the models according to field data, allowing for the reuse of literature data from various sources and reducing the need for extensive field data collection. Tiko'n was run using coffee leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella) and associated parasitoid data from a shaded coffee plantation, showing the mechanisms of insect population dynamics within a tri-trophic food web in an agroforestry system.

Effects of host migration, diversity and aquaculture on sea lice threats to Pacific salmon populations.

PubMed

Krkosek, Martin; Gottesfeld, Allen; Proctor, Bart; Rolston, Dave; Carr-Harris, Charmaine; Lewis, Mark A

2007-12-22

Animal migrations can affect disease dynamics. One consequence of migration common to marine fish and invertebrates is migratory allopatry-a period of spatial separation between adult and juvenile hosts, which is caused by host migration and which prevents parasite transmission from adult to juvenile hosts. We studied this characteristic for sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Caligus clemensi) and pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) from one of the Canada's largest salmon stocks. Migratory allopatry protects juvenile salmon from L. salmonis for two to three months of early marine life (2-3% prevalence). In contrast, host diversity facilitates access for C. clemensi to juvenile salmon (8-20% prevalence) but infections appear ephemeral. Aquaculture can augment host abundance and diversity and increase parasite exposure of wild juvenile fish. An empirically parametrized model shows high sensitivity of salmon populations to increased L. salmonis exposure, predicting population collapse at one to five motile L. salmonis per juvenile pink salmon. These results characterize parasite threats of salmon aquaculture to wild salmon populations and show how host migration and diversity are important factors affecting parasite transmission in the oceans.

Effects of riffle length on the short-term movement of fishes among stream pools.

Treesearch

David George Lonzarich; Mary Ruth Elger Lonzrich; Melvin L. Warren

2000-01-01

Recent research has suggested that the within-habitat dynamics of fish populations and assemblages can be affected by the spatial distribution of habitats within streams. In this study, we determined the extent to which pool isolation (length of riffles connecting adjacent pools) influenced fish movement in two Arkansas streams. We marked individuals from 12 pools...

Seasonal fluxes of native grass bud banks in response to season and return interval of fire in the Northern Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Axillary buds play a fundamental role in perennial population persistence through regeneration of bud banks. However, fire could affect bud bank dynamics by altering the size and cycles of dormant and active periods. We examined impacts of fire return interval (1.5, 3, or 6 yr) and season of fire ...

Natural enemy impact on the invasive brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), in organic agroecosystems: A regional assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding natural enemy impacts on the invasive brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål), gives insight into the population dynamics of this invasive pest and the potential for biological control. This two-year study provides a broad-scale assessment of mortality factors affecting s...

Environment and ontogeny modify loblolly pine response to induced acute water deficits and bark beetle attack

Treesearch

Peter L. Lorio; Frederick M. Stephen; Timothy D. Paine

1995-01-01

We evaluated the impact of tree resistance on within-tree population dynamics of southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm. (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) in loblolly pine, Pinus taeda L., as affected by prevailing water regimes, acute water deficits imposed by applying dry-ice (solid CO2) collars to tree boles, and by the seasonal ontogeny of...

Dynamics of epidemic spreading with vaccination: Impact of social pressure and engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pires, Marcelo A.; Crokidakis, Nuno

2017-02-01

In this work we consider a model of epidemic spreading coupled with an opinion dynamics in a fully-connected population. Regarding the opinion dynamics, the individuals may be in two distinct states, namely in favor or against a vaccination campaign. Individuals against the vaccination follow a standard SIS model, whereas the pro-vaccine individuals can also be in a third compartment, namely Vaccinated. In addition, the opinions change according to the majority-rule dynamics in groups with three individuals. We also consider that the vaccine can give permanent or temporary immunization to the individuals. By means of analytical calculations and computer simulations, we show that the opinion dynamics can drastically affect the disease propagation, and that the engagement of the pro-vaccine individuals can be crucial for stopping the epidemic spreading. The full numerical code for simulating the model is available from the authors' webpage.

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations.

PubMed

Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard M; Forchhammer, Mads C; Forbes, Valery E; Topping, Christopher J

2010-01-28

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.

Emerging prion disease drives host selection in a wildlife population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Stacie J.; Samuel, Michael D.; Johnson, Chad J.; Adams, Marie; McKenzie, Debbie I.

2012-01-01

Infectious diseases are increasingly recognized as an important force driving population dynamics, conservation biology, and natural selection in wildlife populations. Infectious agents have been implicated in the decline of small or endangered populations and may act to constrain population size, distribution, growth rates, or migration patterns. Further, diseases may provide selective pressures that shape the genetic diversity of populations or species. Thus, understanding disease dynamics and selective pressures from pathogens is crucial to understanding population processes, managing wildlife diseases, and conserving biological diversity. There is ample evidence that variation in the prion protein gene (PRNP) impacts host susceptibility to prion diseases. Still, little is known about how genetic differences might influence natural selection within wildlife populations. Here we link genetic variation with differential susceptibility of white-tailed deer to chronic wasting disease (CWD), with implications for fitness and disease-driven genetic selection. We developed a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assay to efficiently genotype deer at the locus of interest (in the 96th codon of the PRNP gene). Then, using a Bayesian modeling approach, we found that the more susceptible genotype had over four times greater risk of CWD infection; and, once infected, deer with the resistant genotype survived 49% longer (8.25 more months). We used these epidemiological parameters in a multi-stage population matrix model to evaluate relative fitness based on genotype-specific population growth rates. The differences in disease infection and mortality rates allowed genetically resistant deer to achieve higher population growth and obtain a long-term fitness advantage, which translated into a selection coefficient of over 1% favoring the CWD-resistant genotype. This selective pressure suggests that the resistant allele could become dominant in the population within an evolutionarily short time frame. Our work provides a rare example of a quantifiable disease-driven selection process in a wildlife population, demonstrating the potential for infectious diseases to alter host populations. This will have direct bearing on the epidemiology, dynamics, and future trends in CWD transmission and spread. Understanding genotype-specific epidemiology will improve predictive models and inform management strategies for CWD-affected cervid populations.

Complex discrete dynamics from simple continuous population models.

PubMed

Gamarra, Javier G P; Solé, Ricard V

2002-05-01

Nonoverlapping generations have been classically modelled as difference equations in order to account for the discrete nature of reproductive events. However, other events such as resource consumption or mortality are continuous and take place in the within-generation time. We have realistically assumed a hybrid ODE bidimensional model of resources and consumers with discrete events for reproduction. Numerical and analytical approaches showed that the resulting dynamics resembles a Ricker map, including the doubling route to chaos. Stochastic simulations with a handling-time parameter for indirect competition of juveniles may affect the qualitative behaviour of the model.

Could residual oil from the Exxon Valdez spill create a long-term population "sink" for sea otters in Alaska?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monson, Daniel H.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Bodkin, James L.

2011-01-01

Over 20 years ago, the Exxon Valdez oil tanker spilled 42 million L of crude oil into the waters of Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. At the time of the spill, the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population inhabiting the spill area suffered substantial acute injuries and loss. Subsequent research has resulted in one of the best-studied species responses to an oil spill in history. However, the question remains: Is the spill still influencing the Prince William Sound sea otter population? Here we fit time-varying population models to data for the sea otter population of western Prince William Sound to quantify the duration and extent of mortality effects from the spill. We hypothesize that the patchy nature of residual oil left in the environment has created a source-sink population dynamic. We fit models using the age distributions of both living and dying animals and estimates of sea otter population size to predict the number of sea otters in the hypothesized sink population and the number lost to this sink due to chronic exposure to residual oil. Our results suggest that the sink population has remained at just over 900 individuals (95% CI: 606-960) between 1990 and 2009, during which time prime-age survival remained 2-6% below pre-spill levels. This reduced survival led to chronic losses of ???900 animals over the past two decades, which is similar in magnitude to the number of sea otter deaths documented in western Prince William Sound during the acute phase of the spill. However, the unaffected source population appears to be counterbalancing these losses, with the model indicating that the sea otter population increased from ???2150 individuals in 1990 to nearly 3000 in 2009. The most optimistic interpretation of our results suggests that mortality effects dissipated between 2005 and 2007. Our results suggest that residual oil can affect wildlife populations on time scales much longer than previously believed and that cumulative chronic effects can be as significant as acute effects. Further, source-sink population dynamics can explain the slow recovery observed in the spill-affected western Prince William Sound sea otter population and are consistent with available data. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Evolutionary dynamics of imatinib-treated leukemic cells by stochastic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pizzolato, Nicola; Valenti, Davide; Adorno, Dominique Persano; Spagnolo, Bernardo

2009-09-01

The evolutionary dynamics of a system of cancerous cells in a model of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is investigated by a statistical approach. Cancer progression is explored by applying a Monte Carlo method to simulate the stochastic behavior of cell reproduction and death in a population of blood cells which can experience genetic mutations. In CML front line therapy is represented by the tyrosine kinase inhibitor imatinib which strongly affects the reproduction of leukemic cells only. In this work, we analyze the effects of a targeted therapy on the evolutionary dynamics of normal, first-mutant and cancerous cell populations. Several scenarios of the evolutionary dynamics of imatinib-treated leukemic cells are described as a consequence of the efficacy of the different modelled therapies. We show how the patient response to the therapy changes when a high value of the mutation rate from healthy to cancerous cells is present. Our results are in agreement with clinical observations. Unfortunately, development of resistance to imatinib is observed in a fraction of patients, whose blood cells are characterized by an increasing number of genetic alterations. We find that the occurrence of resistance to the therapy can be related to a progressive increase of deleterious mutations.

Effects of Mountain Uplift and Climatic Oscillations on Phylogeography and Species Divergence in Four Endangered Notopterygium Herbs

PubMed Central

Shahzad, Khurram; Jia, Yun; Chen, Fu-Lin; Zeb, Umar; Li, Zhong-Hu

2017-01-01

Mountain uplift and climatic fluctuations are important driving forces that have affected the geographic distribution and population dynamics history of organisms. However, it is unclear how geological and climatic events might have affected the phylogeographic history and species divergence in high-alpine herbal plants. In this study, we analyzed the population demographic history and species differentiation of four endangered Notopterygium herbs on the high-altitude Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and adjacent areas. We combined phylogeographic analysis with species distribution modeling to detect the genetic variations in four Notopterygium species (N. incisum, N. franchetii, N. oviforme, and N. forrestii). In total, 559 individuals from 74 populations of the four species were analyzed based on three maternally inherited chloroplast fragments (matK, rbcL, and trnS-trnG) and one nuclear DNA region (internal transcribed spacer, ITS). Fifty-five chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) and 48 ITS haplotypes were identified in the four species. All of the cpDNA and ITS haplotypes were species-specific, except N. franchetii and N. oviforme shared one cpDNA haplotype, H32. Phylogenetic analysis suggested that all four species formed a monophyletic clade with high bootstrap support, where N. franchetii and N. oviforme were sisters. In addition, each Notopterygium species generated an individual clade that corresponded to their respective species in the ITS tree. Population dynamics analyses and species distribution modeling showed that the two widely distributed herbs N. incisum and N. franchetii exhibited obvious demographic expansions during the Pleistocene ice ages. Molecular dating suggested that the divergence of the four Notopterygium species occurred approximately between 3.6 and 1.2 Mya, and it was significantly associated with recent extensive uplifts of the QTP. Our results support the hypothesis that mountain uplift and Quaternary climatic oscillations profoundly shaped the population genetic divergence and demographic dynamics of Notopterygium species. The findings of this and previous studies provide important insights into the effects of QTP uplifts and climatic changes on phylogeography and species differentiation in high altitude mountainous areas. Our results may also facilitate the conservation of endangered herbaceous medicinal plants in the genus Notopterygium. PMID:29167679

Effects of Mountain Uplift and Climatic Oscillations on Phylogeography and Species Divergence in Four Endangered Notopterygium Herbs.

PubMed

Shahzad, Khurram; Jia, Yun; Chen, Fu-Lin; Zeb, Umar; Li, Zhong-Hu

2017-01-01

Mountain uplift and climatic fluctuations are important driving forces that have affected the geographic distribution and population dynamics history of organisms. However, it is unclear how geological and climatic events might have affected the phylogeographic history and species divergence in high-alpine herbal plants. In this study, we analyzed the population demographic history and species differentiation of four endangered Notopterygium herbs on the high-altitude Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and adjacent areas. We combined phylogeographic analysis with species distribution modeling to detect the genetic variations in four Notopterygium species ( N. incisum , N. franchetii , N. oviforme , and N. forrestii ). In total, 559 individuals from 74 populations of the four species were analyzed based on three maternally inherited chloroplast fragments ( matK , rbcL , and trn S -trn G) and one nuclear DNA region (internal transcribed spacer, ITS). Fifty-five chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) and 48 ITS haplotypes were identified in the four species. All of the cpDNA and ITS haplotypes were species-specific, except N. franchetii and N. oviforme shared one cpDNA haplotype, H32. Phylogenetic analysis suggested that all four species formed a monophyletic clade with high bootstrap support, where N. franchetii and N. oviforme were sisters. In addition, each Notopterygium species generated an individual clade that corresponded to their respective species in the ITS tree. Population dynamics analyses and species distribution modeling showed that the two widely distributed herbs N. incisum and N. franchetii exhibited obvious demographic expansions during the Pleistocene ice ages. Molecular dating suggested that the divergence of the four Notopterygium species occurred approximately between 3.6 and 1.2 Mya, and it was significantly associated with recent extensive uplifts of the QTP. Our results support the hypothesis that mountain uplift and Quaternary climatic oscillations profoundly shaped the population genetic divergence and demographic dynamics of Notopterygium species. The findings of this and previous studies provide important insights into the effects of QTP uplifts and climatic changes on phylogeography and species differentiation in high altitude mountainous areas. Our results may also facilitate the conservation of endangered herbaceous medicinal plants in the genus Notopterygium.

Dynamic Succession of Soil Bacterial Community during Continuous Cropping of Peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.)

PubMed Central

Chen, Mingna; Li, Xiao; Yang, Qingli; Chi, Xiaoyuan; Pan, Lijuan; Chen, Na; Yang, Zhen; Wang, Tong; Wang, Mian; Yu, Shanlin

2014-01-01

Plant health and soil fertility are affected by plant–microbial interactions in soils. Peanut is an important oil crop worldwide and shows considerable adaptability, but growth and yield are negatively affected by continuous cropping. In this study, 16S rRNA gene clone library analyses were used to study the succession of soil bacterial communities under continuous peanut cultivation. Six libraries were constructed for peanut over three continuous cropping cycles and during its seedling and pod-maturing growth stages. Cluster analyses indicated that soil bacterial assemblages obtained from the same peanut cropping cycle were similar, regardless of growth period. The diversity of bacterial sequences identified in each growth stage library of the three peanut cropping cycles was high and these sequences were affiliated with 21 bacterial groups. Eight phyla: Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Chloroflexi, Gemmatimonadetes, Planctomycetes, Proteobacteria and Verrucomicrobia were dominant. The related bacterial phylotypes dynamic changed during continuous cropping progress of peanut. This study demonstrated that the bacterial populations especially the beneficial populations were positively selected. The simplification of the beneficial microbial communities such as the phylotypes of Alteromonadales, Burkholderiales, Flavobacteriales, Pseudomonadales, Rhizobiales and Rhodospirillales could be important factors contributing to the decline in peanut yield under continuous cropping. The microbial phylotypes that did not successively changed with continuous cropping, such as populations related to Rhizobiales and Rhodospirillales, could potentially resist stress due to continuous cropping and deserve attention. In addition, some phylotypes, such as Acidobacteriales, Chromatiales and Gemmatimonadales, showed a contrary tendency, their abundance or diversity increased with continuous peanut cropping progress. Some bacterial phylotypes including Acidobacteriales, Burkholderiales, Bdellovibrionales, and so on, also were affected by plant age. PMID:25010658

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

Effects of harvesting flowers from shrubs on the persistence and abundance of wild shrub populations at multiple spatial extents.

PubMed

Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Bond, William J; Midgley, Guy F; Rebelo, Anthony G; Thuiller, Wilfried; Schurr, Frank M

2011-02-01

Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process-based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species' dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent of interest increases confidence in assessments and monitoring of the effects of harvesting. Our general sensitivity analysis improved understanding of harvesting effects on metapopulation dynamics and allowed qualitative assessment of the probability of extirpation of poorly studied species. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Maternal effects of the English grain aphids feeding on the wheat varieties with different resistance traits.

PubMed

Hu, Xiang-Shun; Zhang, Zhan-Feng; Zhu, Tong-Yi; Song, Yue; Wu, Li-Juan; Liu, Xiao-Feng; Zhao, Hui-Yan; Liu, Tong-Xian

2018-05-09

The maternal effects of the English grain aphid, Sitobion avenae on offspring phenotypes and performance on wheat varieties with different resistance traits were examined. We found that both conditioning wheat varieties(the host plant for over 3 months) and transition wheat varieties affected the biological parameters of aphid offspring after they were transferred between wheat varieties with different resistance traits. The conditioning varieties affected weight gain, development time (DT), and the intrinsic rate of natural increase (r m ), whereas transition varieties affected the fecundity, r m , net reproductive rate, and fitness index. The conditioning and transition wheat varieties had significant interaction effects on the aphid offspring's DT, mean relative growth rate, and fecundity. Our results showed that there was obvious maternal effects on offspring when S. avenae transferred bwteen wheat varieties with different resistance level, and the resistance traits of wheat varieties could induce an interaction between the conditioning and transition wheat varieties to influence the growth, development, reproduction, and even population dynamics of S. avenae. The conditioning varieties affected life-history traits related to individual growth and development to a greater extent, whereas transition varieties affected fecundity and population parameters more.

Thermoregulatory behaviour affects prevalence of chytrid fungal infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs

PubMed Central

Richards-Zawacki, Corinne L.

2010-01-01

Predicting how climate change will affect disease dynamics requires an understanding of how the environment affects host–pathogen interactions. For amphibians, global declines and extinctions have been linked to a pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Using a combination of body temperature measurements and disease assays conducted before and after the arrival of B. dendrobatidis, this study tested the hypothesis that body temperature affects the prevalence of infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs (Atelopus zeteki). The timing of first detection of the fungus was consistent with that of a wave of epidemic infections spreading south and eastward through Central America. During the epidemic, many golden frogs modified their thermoregulatory behaviour, raising body temperatures above their normal set point. Odds of infection decreased with increasing body temperature, demonstrating that even slight environmental or behavioural changes have the potential to affect an individual's vulnerability to infection. The thermal dependency of the relationship between B. dendrobatidis and its amphibian hosts demonstrates how the progression of an epidemic can be influenced by complex interactions between host and pathogen phenotypes and the environments in which they are found. PMID:19864287

Effects of road mortality and mitigation measures on amphibian populations.

PubMed

Beebee, Trevor J C

2013-08-01

Road mortality is a widely recognized but rarely quantified threat to the viability of amphibian populations. The global extent of the problem is substantial and factors affecting the number of animals killed on highways include life-history traits and landscape features. Secondary effects include genetic isolation due to roads acting as barriers to migration. Long-term effects of roads on population dynamics are often severe and mitigation methods include volunteer rescues and under-road tunnels. Despite the development of methods that reduce road kill in specific locations, especially under-road tunnels and culverts, there is scant evidence that such measures will protect populations over the long term. There also seems little likelihood that funding will be forthcoming to ameliorate the problem at the scale necessary to prevent further population declines. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Modeling of Nonlinear Dynamics and Synchronized Oscillations of Microbial Populations, Carbon and Oxygen Concentrations, Induced by Root Exudation in the Rhizosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molz, F. J.; Faybishenko, B.; Jenkins, E. W.

2012-12-01

Mass and energy fluxes within the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum are highly coupled and inherently nonlinear. The main focus of this presentation is to demonstrate the results of numerical modeling of a system of 4 coupled, nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which are used to describe the long-term, rhizosphere processes of soil microbial dynamics, including the competition between nitrogen-fixing bacteria and those unable to fix nitrogen, along with substrate concentration (nutrient supply) and oxygen concentration. Modeling results demonstrate the synchronized patterns of temporal oscillations of competing microbial populations, which are affected by carbon and oxygen concentrations. The temporal dynamics and amplitude of the root exudation process serve as a driving force for microbial and geochemical phenomena, and lead to the development of the Gompetzian dynamics, synchronized oscillations, and phase-space attractors of microbial populations and carbon and oxygen concentrations. The nonlinear dynamic analysis of time series concentrations from the solution of the ODEs was used to identify several types of phase-space attractors, which appear to be dependent on the parameters of the exudation function and Monod kinetic parameters. This phase space analysis was conducted by means of assessing the global and local embedding dimensions, correlation time, capacity and correlation dimensions, and Lyapunov exponents of the calculated model variables defining the phase space. Such results can be used for planning experimental and theoretical studies of biogeochemical processes in the fields of plant nutrition, phyto- and bio-remediation, and other ecological areas.

Death and population dynamics affect mutation rate estimates and evolvability under stress in bacteria

PubMed Central

Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

2018-01-01

The stress-induced mutagenesis hypothesis postulates that in response to stress, bacteria increase their genome-wide mutation rate, in turn increasing the chances that a descendant is able to better withstand the stress. This has implications for antibiotic treatment: exposure to subinhibitory doses of antibiotics has been reported to increase bacterial mutation rates and thus probably the rate at which resistance mutations appear and lead to treatment failure. More generally, the hypothesis posits that stress increases evolvability (the ability of a population to generate adaptive genetic diversity) and thus accelerates evolution. Measuring mutation rates under stress, however, is problematic, because existing methods assume there is no death. Yet subinhibitory stress levels may induce a substantial death rate. Death events need to be compensated by extra replication to reach a given population size, thus providing more opportunities to acquire mutations. We show that ignoring death leads to a systematic overestimation of mutation rates under stress. We developed a system based on plasmid segregation that allows us to measure death and division rates simultaneously in bacterial populations. Using this system, we found that a substantial death rate occurs at the tested subinhibitory concentrations previously reported to increase mutation rate. Taking this death rate into account lowers and sometimes removes the signal for stress-induced mutagenesis. Moreover, even when antibiotics increase mutation rate, we show that subinhibitory treatments do not increase genetic diversity and evolvability, again because of effects of the antibiotics on population dynamics. We conclude that antibiotic-induced mutagenesis is overestimated because of death and that understanding evolvability under stress requires accounting for the effects of stress on population dynamics as much as on mutation rate. Our goal here is dual: we show that population dynamics and, in particular, the numbers of cell divisions are crucial but neglected parameters in the evolvability of a population, and we provide experimental and computational tools and methods to study evolvability under stress, leading to a reassessment of the magnitude and significance of the stress-induced mutagenesis paradigm. PMID:29750784

Death and population dynamics affect mutation rate estimates and evolvability under stress in bacteria.

PubMed

Frenoy, Antoine; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

2018-05-01

The stress-induced mutagenesis hypothesis postulates that in response to stress, bacteria increase their genome-wide mutation rate, in turn increasing the chances that a descendant is able to better withstand the stress. This has implications for antibiotic treatment: exposure to subinhibitory doses of antibiotics has been reported to increase bacterial mutation rates and thus probably the rate at which resistance mutations appear and lead to treatment failure. More generally, the hypothesis posits that stress increases evolvability (the ability of a population to generate adaptive genetic diversity) and thus accelerates evolution. Measuring mutation rates under stress, however, is problematic, because existing methods assume there is no death. Yet subinhibitory stress levels may induce a substantial death rate. Death events need to be compensated by extra replication to reach a given population size, thus providing more opportunities to acquire mutations. We show that ignoring death leads to a systematic overestimation of mutation rates under stress. We developed a system based on plasmid segregation that allows us to measure death and division rates simultaneously in bacterial populations. Using this system, we found that a substantial death rate occurs at the tested subinhibitory concentrations previously reported to increase mutation rate. Taking this death rate into account lowers and sometimes removes the signal for stress-induced mutagenesis. Moreover, even when antibiotics increase mutation rate, we show that subinhibitory treatments do not increase genetic diversity and evolvability, again because of effects of the antibiotics on population dynamics. We conclude that antibiotic-induced mutagenesis is overestimated because of death and that understanding evolvability under stress requires accounting for the effects of stress on population dynamics as much as on mutation rate. Our goal here is dual: we show that population dynamics and, in particular, the numbers of cell divisions are crucial but neglected parameters in the evolvability of a population, and we provide experimental and computational tools and methods to study evolvability under stress, leading to a reassessment of the magnitude and significance of the stress-induced mutagenesis paradigm.

Determinants of lifetime reproduction in female brown bears: early body mass, longevity, and hunting regulations.

PubMed

Zedrosser, Andreas; Pelletier, Fanie; Bischof, Richard; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Swenson, Jon E

2013-01-01

In iteroparous mammals, conditions experienced early in life may have long-lasting effects on lifetime reproductive success. Human-induced mortality is also an important demographic factor in many populations of large mammals and may influence lifetime reproductive success. Here, we explore the effects of early development, population density, and human hunting on survival and lifetime reproductive success in brown bear (Ursus arctos) females, using a 25-year database of individually marked bears in two populations in Sweden. Survival of yearlings to 2 years was not affected by population density or body mass. Yearlings that remained with their mother had higher survival than independent yearlings, partly because regulations prohibit the harvest of bears in family groups. Although mass as a yearling did not affect juvenile survival, it was positively associated with measures of lifetime reproductive success and individual fitness. The majority of adult female brown bear mortality (72%) in our study was due to human causes, mainly hunting, and many females were killed before they reproduced. Therefore, factors allowing females to survive several hunting seasons had a strong positive effect on lifetime reproductive success. We suggest that, in many hunted populations of large mammals, sport harvest is an important influence on both population dynamics and life histories.

A metapopulation approach to African lion (Panthera leo) conservation.

PubMed

Dolrenry, Stephanie; Stenglein, Jennifer; Hazzah, Leela; Lutz, R Scott; Frank, Laurence

2014-01-01

Due to anthropogenic pressures, African lion (Panthera leo) populations in Kenya and Tanzania are increasingly limited to fragmented populations. Lions living on isolated habitat patches exist in a matrix of less-preferred habitat. A framework of habitat patches within a less-suitable matrix describes a metapopulation. Metapopulation analysis can provide insight into the dynamics of each population patch in reference to the system as a whole, and these analyses often guide conservation planning. We present the first metapopulation analysis of African lions. We use a spatially-realistic model to investigate how sex-biased dispersal abilities of lions affect patch occupancy and also examine whether human densities surrounding the remaining lion populations affect the metapopulation as a whole. Our results indicate that male lion dispersal ability strongly contributes to population connectivity while the lesser dispersal ability of females could be a limiting factor. When populations go extinct, recolonization will not occur if distances between patches exceed female dispersal ability or if females are not able to survive moving across the matrix. This has profound implications for the overall metapopulation; the female models showed an intrinsic extinction rate from five-fold to a hundred-fold higher than the male models. Patch isolation is a consideration for even the largest lion populations. As lion populations continue to decline and with local extinctions occurring, female dispersal ability and the proximity to the nearest lion population are serious considerations for the recolonization of individual populations and for broader conservation efforts.

A Metapopulation Approach to African Lion (Panthera leo) Conservation

PubMed Central

Dolrenry, Stephanie; Stenglein, Jennifer; Hazzah, Leela; Lutz, R. Scott; Frank, Laurence

2014-01-01

Due to anthropogenic pressures, African lion (Panthera leo) populations in Kenya and Tanzania are increasingly limited to fragmented populations. Lions living on isolated habitat patches exist in a matrix of less-preferred habitat. A framework of habitat patches within a less-suitable matrix describes a metapopulation. Metapopulation analysis can provide insight into the dynamics of each population patch in reference to the system as a whole, and these analyses often guide conservation planning. We present the first metapopulation analysis of African lions. We use a spatially-realistic model to investigate how sex-biased dispersal abilities of lions affect patch occupancy and also examine whether human densities surrounding the remaining lion populations affect the metapopulation as a whole. Our results indicate that male lion dispersal ability strongly contributes to population connectivity while the lesser dispersal ability of females could be a limiting factor. When populations go extinct, recolonization will not occur if distances between patches exceed female dispersal ability or if females are not able to survive moving across the matrix. This has profound implications for the overall metapopulation; the female models showed an intrinsic extinction rate from five-fold to a hundred-fold higher than the male models. Patch isolation is a consideration for even the largest lion populations. As lion populations continue to decline and with local extinctions occurring, female dispersal ability and the proximity to the nearest lion population are serious considerations for the recolonization of individual populations and for broader conservation efforts. PMID:24505385

Species differentiation on a dynamic landscape: shifts in metapopulation genetic structure using the chronology of the Hawaiian Archipelago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roderick, George K.; Croucher, Peter J.P.; Vandergast, Amy G.; Gillespie, Rosemary G.

2012-01-01

Species formation during adaptive radiation often occurs in the context of a changing environment. The establishment and arrangement of populations, in space and time, sets up ecological and genetic processes that dictate the rate and pattern of differentiation. Here, we focus on how a dynamic habitat can affect genetic structure, and ultimately, differentiation among populations. We make use of the chronology and geographical history provided by the Hawaiian archipelago to examine the initial stages of population establishment and genetic divergence. We use data from a set of 6 spider lineages that differ in habitat affinities, some preferring low elevation habitats with a longer history of connection, others being more specialized for high elevation and/or wet forest, some with more general habitat affinities. We show that habitat preferences associated with lineages are important in ecological and genetic structuring. Lineages that have more restricted habitat preferences are subject to repeated episodes of isolation and fragmentation as a result of lava flows and vegetation succession. The initial dynamic set up by the landscape translates over time into discrete lineages. Further work is needed to understand how genetic changes interact with a changing set of ecological interactions amongst a shifting mosaic of landscapes to achieve species formation.

Long-Period Planets in Open Clusters and the Evolution of Planetary Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Samuel N.; White, Russel; Latham, David W.; Stefanik, Robert

2018-01-01

Recent discoveries of giant planets in open clusters confirm that they do form and migrate in relatively dense stellar groups, though overall occurrence rates are not yet well constrained because the small sample of giant planets discovered thus far predominantly have short periods. Moreover, planet formation rates and the architectures of planetary systems in clusters may vary significantly -- e.g., due to intercluster differences in the chemical properties that regulate the growth of planetary embryos or in the stellar space density and binary populations, which can influence the dynamical evolution of planetary systems. Constraints on the population of long-period Jovian planets -- those representing the reservoir from which many hot Jupiters likely form, and which are most vulnerable to intracluster dynamical interactions -- can help quantify how the birth environment affects formation and evolution, particularly through comparison of populations possessing a range of ages and chemical and dynamical properties. From our ongoing RV survey of open clusters, we present the discovery of several long-period planets and candidate substellar companions in the Praesepe, Coma Berenices, and Hyades open clusters. From these discoveries, we improve estimates of giant planet occurrence rates in clusters, and we note that high eccentricities in several of these systems support the prediction that the birth environment helps shape planetary system architectures.

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauser, C.E.; Runge, M.C.; Cooch, E.G.; Johnson, F.A.; Harvey, W.F.

2007-01-01

Management of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

Temporally increasing spatial synchrony of North American temperature and bird populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koenig, Walter D.; Liebhold, Andrew M.

2016-06-01

The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics. So far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in spatial synchrony--the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape--despite the importance of environmental synchrony as a driver of population trends and the central role of environmental variability in population rescue and extinction. Here we demonstrate that across North America, spatial synchrony of a significant proportion of 49 widespread North American wintering bird species has increased over the past 50 years--the period encompassing particularly intense anthropogenic effects in climate--paralleling significant increases in spatial synchrony of mean maximum air temperature. These results suggest the potential for increased spatial synchrony in environmental factors to be affecting a wide range of ecological phenomena. These effects are likely to vary, but for North American wildlife species, increased spatial synchrony driven by environmental factors may be the basis for a previously unrecognized threat to their long-term persistence in the form of more synchronized population dynamics reducing the potential for demographic rescue among interacting subpopulations.

Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Colchero, Fernando; Medellin, Rodrigo A; Clark, James S; Lee, Raymond; Katul, Gabriel G

2009-05-01

1. Our understanding of the interplay between density dependence, climatic perturbations, and conservation practices on the dynamics of small populations is still limited. This can result in uninformed strategies that put endangered populations at risk. Moreover, the data available for a large number of populations in such circumstances are sparse and mined with missing data. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is essential to develop appropriate inferential methods that can make use of such data sets. 2. We studied a population of desert bighorn sheep introduced to Tiburon Island, Mexico in 1975 and subjected to irregular extractions for the last 10 years. The unique attributes of this population are absence of predation and disease, thereby permitting us to explore the combined effect of density dependence, environmental variability and extraction in a 'controlled setting.' Using a combination of nonlinear discrete models with long-term field data, we constructed three basic Bayesian state space models with increasing density dependence (DD), and the same three models with the addition of summer drought effects. 3. We subsequently used Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the combined effect of drought, DD, and increasing extractions on the probability of population survival under two climate change scenarios (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictions): (i) increase in drought variability; and (ii) increase in mean drought severity. 4. The population grew from 16 individuals introduced in 1975 to close to 700 by 1993. Our results show that the population's growth was dominated by DD, with drought having a secondary but still relevant effect on its dynamics. 5. Our predictions suggest that under climate change scenario (i), extraction dominates the fate of the population, while for scenario (ii), an increase in mean drought affects the population's probability of survival in an equivalent magnitude as extractions. Thus, for the long-term survival of the population, our results stress that a more variable environment is less threatening than one in which the mean conditions become harsher. Current climate change scenarios and their underlying uncertainty make studies such as this one crucial for understanding the dynamics of ungulate populations and their conservation.

Noise-induced shifts in the population model with a weak Allee effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev

2018-02-01

We consider the Truscott-Brindley system of interacting phyto- and zooplankton populations with a weak Allee effect. We add a random noise to the parameter of the prey carrying capacity, and study how the noise affects the dynamic behavior of this nonlinear prey-predator model. Phenomena of the stochastic excitement and noise-induced shifts in zones of the Andronov-Hopf bifurcation and Canard explosion are analyzed on the base of the direct numerical simulation and stochastic sensitivity functions technique. A relationship of these phenomena with transitions between order and chaos is discussed.

Experimental Beetle Metapopulations Respond Positively to Dynamic Landscapes and Reduced Connectivity

PubMed Central

Govindan, Byju N.; Swihart, Robert K.

2012-01-01

Interactive effects of multiple environmental factors on metapopulation dynamics have received scant attention. We designed a laboratory study to test hypotheses regarding interactive effects of factors affecting the metapopulation dynamics of red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum. Within a four-patch landscape we modified resource level (constant and diminishing), patch connectivity (high and low) and patch configuration (static and dynamic) to conduct a 23 factorial experiment, consisting of 8 metapopulations, each with 3 replicates. For comparison, two control populations consisting of isolated and static subpopulations were provided with resources at constant or diminishing levels. Longitudinal data from 22 tri-weekly counts of beetle abundance were analyzed using Bayesian Poisson generalized linear mixed models to estimate additive and interactive effects of factors affecting abundance. Constant resource levels, low connectivity and dynamic patches yielded greater levels of adult beetle abundance. For a given resource level, frequency of colonization exceeded extinction in landscapes with dynamic patches when connectivity was low, thereby promoting greater patch occupancy. Negative density dependence of pupae on adults occurred and was stronger in landscapes with low connectivity and constant resources; these metapopulations also demonstrated greatest stability. Metapopulations in control landscapes went extinct quickly, denoting lower persistence than comparable landscapes with low connectivity. When landscape carrying capacity was constant, habitat destruction coupled with low connectivity created asynchronous local dynamics and refugia within which cannibalism of pupae was reduced. Increasing connectivity may be counter-productive and habitat destruction/recreation may be beneficial to species in some contexts. PMID:22509314

Disease dynamics during wildlife translocations: disruptions to the host population and potential consequences for transmission in desert tortoise contact networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aiello, Christina M.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Walde, Andrew D.; Esque, Todd C.; Emblidge, Patrick G.; Sah, Pratha; Bansal, S.; Hudson, Peter J.

2014-01-01

Wildlife managers consider animal translocation a means of increasing the viability of a local population. However, augmentation may disrupt existing resident disease dynamics and initiate an outbreak that would effectively offset any advantages the translocation may have achieved. This paper examines fundamental concepts of disease ecology and identifies the conditions that will increase the likelihood of a disease outbreak following translocation. We highlight the importance of susceptibility to infection, population size and population connectivity – a characteristic likely affected by translocation but not often considered in risk assessments – in estimating outbreak risk due to translocation. We then explore these features in a species of conservation concern often translocated in the presence of infectious disease, the Mojave Desert tortoise, and use data from experimental tortoise translocations to detect changes in population connectivity that may influence pathogen transmission. Preliminary analyses comparing contact networks inferred from spatial data at control and translocation plots and infection simulation results through these networks suggest increased outbreak risk following translocation due to dispersal-driven changes in contact frequency and network structure. We outline future research goals to test these concepts and aid managers in designing effective risk assessment and intervention strategies that will improve translocation success.

Individual-based modelling of population growth and diffusion in discrete time.

PubMed

Tkachenko, Natalie; Weissmann, John D; Petersen, Wesley P; Lake, George; Zollikofer, Christoph P E; Callegari, Simone

2017-01-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) of human populations capture spatio-temporal dynamics using rules that govern the birth, behavior, and death of individuals. We explore a stochastic IBM of logistic growth-diffusion with constant time steps and independent, simultaneous actions of birth, death, and movement that approaches the Fisher-Kolmogorov model in the continuum limit. This model is well-suited to parallelization on high-performance computers. We explore its emergent properties with analytical approximations and numerical simulations in parameter ranges relevant to human population dynamics and ecology, and reproduce continuous-time results in the limit of small transition probabilities. Our model prediction indicates that the population density and dispersal speed are affected by fluctuations in the number of individuals. The discrete-time model displays novel properties owing to the binomial character of the fluctuations: in certain regimes of the growth model, a decrease in time step size drives the system away from the continuum limit. These effects are especially important at local population sizes of <50 individuals, which largely correspond to group sizes of hunter-gatherers. As an application scenario, we model the late Pleistocene dispersal of Homo sapiens into the Americas, and discuss the agreement of model-based estimates of first-arrival dates with archaeological dates in dependence of IBM model parameter settings.

An investigation of surface and crown fire dynamics in shrub fuels

Treesearch

Jesse Sandoval Lozano

2011-01-01

Fires burn large areas in California and around the world annually. California experiences numerous wildland fires that affect the lives of thousands of citizens every year. In 2000 the U.S. census bureau reported that 33.8 million people resided in California. The last census in 2010 showed California population had grown to 37.3 million people. As a consequence of...

Performance and population dynamics of a native understory herb differ between young and old forest stands in the Southern Appalachians

Treesearch

Michelle M. Jackson; Scott M. Pearson; Monica G. Turner

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., logging) can strongly affect the composition and structure of forest understory herb communities, with land-use legacies often persisting for decades or even centuries. Many studies of forest plant response to land-use history have focused on species distributions and abundances, and argued broadly for either dispersal or establishment...

Landscape-and regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States

Treesearch

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Jacob S. Fraser; William D. Dijak

2016-01-01

Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating at multiple scales. Niche and biophysical process models have been commonly used to predict climate change effects at regional scales, however, these models have limited capability to include site-scale population dynamics and landscape- scale disturbance and dispersal. We applied a landscape...

Conservation biology for suites of species: Demographic modeling for Pacific island kingfishers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kesler, D.C.; Haig, S.M.

2007-01-01

Conservation practitioners frequently extrapolate data from single-species investigations when managing critically endangered populations. However, few researchers initiate work with the intent of making findings useful to conservation efforts for other species. We presented and explored the concept of conducting conservation-oriented research for suites of geographically separated populations with similar natural histories, resource needs, and extinction threats. An example was provided in the form of an investigation into the population demography of endangered Micronesian kingfishers (Todiramphus cinnamominus). We provided the first demographic parameter estimates for any of the 12 endangered Pacific Todiramphus species, and used results to develop a population projection matrix model for management throughout the insular Pacific. Further, we used the model for elasticity and simulation analyses with demographic values that randomly varied across ranges that might characterize congener populations. Results from elasticity and simulation analyses indicated that changes in breeding adult survival exerted the greatest magnitude of influence on population dynamics. However, changes in nestling survival were more consistently correlated with population dynamics as demographic rates were randomly altered. We concluded that conservation practitioners working with endangered Pacific kingfishers should primarily focus efforts on factors affecting nestling and breeder survival, and secondarily address fledgling juveniles and helpers. Further, we described how the generalized base model might be changed to focus on individual populations and discussed the potential application of multi-species models to other conservation situations. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the role of environmental variables on the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The impact of weather and climate on malaria transmission has attracted considerable attention in recent years, yet uncertainties around future disease trends under climate change remain. Mathematical models provide powerful tools for addressing such questions and understanding the implications for interventions and eradication strategies, but these require realistic modeling of the vector population dynamics and its response to environmental variables. Methods Published and unpublished field and experimental data are used to develop new formulations for modeling the relationships between key aspects of vector ecology and environmental variables. These relationships are integrated within a validated deterministic model of Anopheles gambiae s.s. population dynamics to provide a valuable tool for understanding vector response to biotic and abiotic variables. Results A novel, parsimonious framework for assessing the effects of rainfall, cloudiness, wind speed, desiccation, temperature, relative humidity and density-dependence on vector abundance is developed, allowing ease of construction, analysis, and integration into malaria transmission models. Model validation shows good agreement with longitudinal vector abundance data from Tanzania, suggesting that recent malaria reductions in certain areas of Africa could be due to changing environmental conditions affecting vector populations. Conclusions Mathematical models provide a powerful, explanatory means of understanding the role of environmental variables on mosquito populations and hence for predicting future malaria transmission under global change. The framework developed provides a valuable advance in this respect, but also highlights key research gaps that need to be resolved if we are to better understand future malaria risk in vulnerable communities. PMID:22877154

Effect of wearable sensor dynamics on physical activity estimates: A comparison between SCI vs. healthy individuals.

PubMed

Jayaraman, C; Mummidisetty, C K; Jayaraman, A

2016-08-01

Accuracy of physical activity estimates predicted by activity monitoring technologies may be affected by device location, analysis algorithms, type of technology (i.e. wearable/stickable) and population demographics (disability) being studied. Consequently, the main purpose of this investigation was to study such sensor dynamics (i.e. effect of device location, type and population demographics on energy expenditure estimates) of two commercial activity monitors. It was hypothesized that device location, population studied (disability), choice of proprietary algorithm and type of technology used will significantly impact the accuracy of the predicted physical activity metrics. 10 healthy controls and eight individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) performed structured activities in a laboratory environment. All participants wore, (i) three ActiGraph-G3TX's one each on their wrist, waist & ankle, (ii) a stickable activity monitor (Metria-IH1) on their upper-arm and (3) a Cosmed-K4B 2 metabolic unit, while performing sedentary (lying), low intensity (walk 50 steps at self-speed) and vigorous activity (a 6 minute walk test). To validate the hypothesis, the energy expenditures (EE) predicted by ActiGraph-GT3X and Metria-IH1 were benchmarked with estimated EE per Cosmed K4B 2 metabolic unit. To verify the step count accuracy predicted by ActiGraph-GT3X's and Metria-IH1, the manually calculated step count during the low intensity activity were compared to estimates from both devices. Results suggest that Metria-IH1 out-performed ActiGraph-GT3X in estimating EE during sedentary activity in both groups. The device location and population demographics, significantly affected the accuracy of predicted estimates. In conclusion, selecting activity monitor locations, analysis algorithm and choice of technology plays based on the movement threshold of population being studied can pave a better way for reliable healthcare decisions and data analytics in population with SCI.

Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Lindmark, Max; Huss, Magnus; Ohlberger, Jan; Gårdmark, Anna

2018-02-01

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature- and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage-structured consumer-resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size-temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size-temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size-specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

KORO SOCIAL RESPONSE (URBAN) : A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF NORTH BENGAL KORO EPIDEMIC

PubMed Central

Chowdhury, Arabinda N.

1992-01-01

Social responses to Koro illness was studied from an urban population (n = 118) of Darjeeling district of West Bengal State, during and after the North Bengal Koro epidemic. The prevalent social cognition of Koro as a positive illness paradigm, both among the Koro-affected and non-affected families, was the important social dynamics that helped the epidemic to spread as the illness in the region. The cognition-intensity related to the Koro vulnerability has diminished gradually with the passing of time, which was well corroborated with the gradually weaning incidence curve of Koro illness in the region. PMID:21776098

Steinernema feltiae Intraspecific Variability: Infection Dynamics and Sex-Ratio.

PubMed

Campos-Herrera, Raquel; Gutiérrez, Carmen

2014-03-01

Entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) from the Heterorhabditidae and Steinernematidae families are well-known biocontrol agents against numerous insect pests. The infective juveniles (IJs) are naturally occurring in the soil and their success in locating and penetrating the host will be affected by extrinsic/intrinsic factors that modulate their foraging behavior. Characterizing key traits in the infection dynamics of EPNs is critical for establishing differentiating species abilities to complete their life cycles and hence, their long-term persistence, in different habitats. We hypothesized that phenotypic variation in traits related to infection dynamics might occur in populations belonging to the same species. To assess these intraspecific differences, we evaluated the infection dynamics of 14 populations of Steinernema feltiae in two experiments measuring penetration and migration in sand column. Intraspecific variability was observed in the percentage larval mortality, time to kill the insect, penetration rate, and sex-ratio in both experiments (P < 0.01). Larval mortality and nematode penetration percentage were lower in migration experiments than in penetration ones in most of the cases. The sex-ratio was significantly biased toward female-development dominance (P < 0.05). When the populations were grouped by habitat of recovery (natural areas, crop edge, and agricultural groves), nematodes isolated in natural areas exhibited less larval mortality and penetration rates than those from some types of agricultural associated soils, suggesting a possible effect of the habitat on the phenotypic plasticity. This study reinforces the importance of considering intraspecific variability when general biological and ecological questions are addressed using EPNs.

Steinernema feltiae Intraspecific Variability: Infection Dynamics and Sex-Ratio

PubMed Central

Campos-Herrera, Raquel; Gutiérrez, Carmen

2014-01-01

Entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) from the Heterorhabditidae and Steinernematidae families are well-known biocontrol agents against numerous insect pests. The infective juveniles (IJs) are naturally occurring in the soil and their success in locating and penetrating the host will be affected by extrinsic/intrinsic factors that modulate their foraging behavior. Characterizing key traits in the infection dynamics of EPNs is critical for establishing differentiating species abilities to complete their life cycles and hence, their long-term persistence, in different habitats. We hypothesized that phenotypic variation in traits related to infection dynamics might occur in populations belonging to the same species. To assess these intraspecific differences, we evaluated the infection dynamics of 14 populations of Steinernema feltiae in two experiments measuring penetration and migration in sand column. Intraspecific variability was observed in the percentage larval mortality, time to kill the insect, penetration rate, and sex-ratio in both experiments (P < 0.01). Larval mortality and nematode penetration percentage were lower in migration experiments than in penetration ones in most of the cases. The sex-ratio was significantly biased toward female-development dominance (P < 0.05). When the populations were grouped by habitat of recovery (natural areas, crop edge, and agricultural groves), nematodes isolated in natural areas exhibited less larval mortality and penetration rates than those from some types of agricultural associated soils, suggesting a possible effect of the habitat on the phenotypic plasticity. This study reinforces the importance of considering intraspecific variability when general biological and ecological questions are addressed using EPNs. PMID:24644369

Model-based prediction of nephropathia epidemica outbreaks based on climatological and vegetation data and bank vole population dynamics.

PubMed

Haredasht, S Amirpour; Taylor, C J; Maes, P; Verstraeten, W W; Clement, J; Barrios, M; Lagrou, K; Van Ranst, M; Coppin, P; Berckmans, D; Aerts, J-M

2013-11-01

Wildlife-originated zoonotic diseases in general are a major contributor to emerging infectious diseases. Hantaviruses more specifically cause thousands of human disease cases annually worldwide, while understanding and predicting human hantavirus epidemics pose numerous unsolved challenges. Nephropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus, which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). The objective of this study was to develop a method that allows model-based predicting 3 months ahead of the occurrence of NE epidemics. Two data sets were utilized to develop and test the models. These data sets were concerned with NE cases in Finland and Belgium. In this study, we selected the most relevant inputs from all the available data for use in a dynamic linear regression (DLR) model. The number of NE cases in Finland were modelled using data from 1996 to 2008. The NE cases were predicted based on the time series data of average monthly air temperature (°C) and bank voles' trapping index using a DLR model. The bank voles' trapping index data were interpolated using a related dynamic harmonic regression model (DHR). Here, the DLR and DHR models used time-varying parameters. Both the DHR and DLR models were based on a unified state-space estimation framework. For the Belgium case, no time series of the bank voles' population dynamics were available. Several studies, however, have suggested that the population of bank voles is related to the variation in seed production of beech and oak trees in Northern Europe. Therefore, the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium was predicted based on a DLR model by using remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests, together with the oak and beech seed categories and average monthly air temperature (°C) using data from 2001 to 2009. Our results suggest that even without any knowledge about hantavirus dynamics in the host population, the time variation in NE outbreaks in Finland could be predicted 3 months ahead with a 34% mean relative prediction error (MRPE). This took into account solely the population dynamics of the carrier species (bank voles). The time series analysis also revealed that climate change, as represented by the vegetation index, changes in forest phenology derived from satellite images and directly measured air temperature, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission. NE outbreaks in Belgium were predicted 3 months ahead with a 40% MRPE, based only on the climatological and vegetation data, in this case, without any knowledge of the bank vole's population dynamics. In this research, we demonstrated that NE outbreaks can be predicted using climate and vegetation data or the bank vole's population dynamics, by using dynamic data-based models with time-varying parameters. Such a predictive modelling approach might be used as a step towards the development of new tools for the prevention of future NE outbreaks. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Rare events in stochastic populations under bursty reproduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Be'er, Shay; Assaf, Michael

2016-11-01

Recently, a first step was made by the authors towards a systematic investigation of the effect of reaction-step-size noise—uncertainty in the step size of the reaction—on the dynamics of stochastic populations. This was done by investigating the effect of bursty influx on the switching dynamics of stochastic populations. Here we extend this formalism to account for bursty reproduction processes, and improve the accuracy of the formalism to include subleading-order corrections. Bursty reproduction appears in various contexts, where notable examples include bursty viral production from infected cells, and reproduction of mammals involving varying number of offspring. The main question we quantitatively address is how bursty reproduction affects the overall fate of the population. We consider two complementary scenarios: population extinction and population survival; in the former a population gets extinct after maintaining a long-lived metastable state, whereas in the latter a population proliferates despite undergoing a deterministic drift towards extinction. In both models reproduction occurs in bursts, sampled from an arbitrary distribution. Using the WKB approach, we show in the extinction problem that bursty reproduction broadens the quasi-stationary distribution of population sizes in the metastable state, which results in a drastic reduction of the mean time to extinction compared to the non-bursty case. In the survival problem, it is shown that bursty reproduction drastically increases the survival probability of the population. Close to the bifurcation limit our analytical results simplify considerably and are shown to depend solely on the mean and variance of the burst-size distribution. Our formalism is demonstrated on several realistic distributions which all compare well with numerical Monte-Carlo simulations.

Ecological context and metapopulation dynamics affect sex-ratio variation among dioecious plant populations.

PubMed

Field, David L; Pickup, Melinda; Barrett, Spencer C H

2013-05-01

Populations of dioecious flowering plants commonly exhibit heterogeneity in sex ratios and deviations from the equilibrium expectation of equal numbers of females and males. Yet the role of ecological and demographic factors in contributing towards biased sex ratios is currently not well understood. Species-level studies from the literature were analysed to investigate ecological correlates of among-population sex-ratio variation and metapopulation models and empirical data were used to explore the influence of demography and non-equilibrium conditions on flowering sex ratios. The survey revealed significant among-population heterogeneity in sex ratios and this was related to the degree of sampling effort. For some species, sex-ratio bias was associated with the proportion of non-reproductive individuals, with greater male bias in populations with a lower proportion of individuals that were flowering. Male-biased ratios were also found at higher altitudes and latitudes, and in more xeric sites. Simulations and empirical data indicated that clonal species exhibited greater heterogeneity in sex ratios than non-clonal species as a result of their slower approach to equilibrium. The simulations also indicated the importance of interactions between reproductive mode and founder effects, with greater departures from equilibrium in clonal populations with fewer founding individuals. The results indicate that sex-based differences in costs of reproduction and non-equilibrium conditions can each play important roles in affecting flowering sex ratios in populations of dioecious plants.

Ocean Acidification Effects on Atlantic Cod Larval Survival and Recruitment to the Fished Population

PubMed Central

Stiasny, Martina H.; Mittermayer, Felix H.; Sswat, Michael; Voss, Rüdiger; Jutfelt, Fredrik; Chierici, Melissa; Puvanendran, Velmurugu; Mortensen, Atle; Reusch, Thorsten B. H.; Clemmesen, Catriona

2016-01-01

How fisheries will be impacted by climate change is far from understood. While some fish populations may be able to escape global warming via range shifts, they cannot escape ocean acidification (OA), an inevitable consequence of the dissolution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in marine waters. How ocean acidification affects population dynamics of commercially important fish species is critical for adapting management practices of exploited fish populations. Ocean acidification has been shown to impair fish larvae’s sensory abilities, affect the morphology of otoliths, cause tissue damage and cause behavioural changes. Here, we obtain first experimental mortality estimates for Atlantic cod larvae under OA and incorporate these effects into recruitment models. End-of-century levels of ocean acidification (~1100 μatm according to the IPCC RCP 8.5) resulted in a doubling of daily mortality rates compared to present-day CO2 concentrations during the first 25 days post hatching (dph), a critical phase for population recruitment. These results were consistent under different feeding regimes, stocking densities and in two cod populations (Western Baltic and Barents Sea stock). When mortality data were included into Ricker-type stock-recruitment models, recruitment was reduced to an average of 8 and 24% of current recruitment for the two populations, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of including vulnerable early life stages when addressing effects of climate change on fish stocks. PMID:27551924

Ocean Acidification Effects on Atlantic Cod Larval Survival and Recruitment to the Fished Population.

PubMed

Stiasny, Martina H; Mittermayer, Felix H; Sswat, Michael; Voss, Rüdiger; Jutfelt, Fredrik; Chierici, Melissa; Puvanendran, Velmurugu; Mortensen, Atle; Reusch, Thorsten B H; Clemmesen, Catriona

2016-01-01

How fisheries will be impacted by climate change is far from understood. While some fish populations may be able to escape global warming via range shifts, they cannot escape ocean acidification (OA), an inevitable consequence of the dissolution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in marine waters. How ocean acidification affects population dynamics of commercially important fish species is critical for adapting management practices of exploited fish populations. Ocean acidification has been shown to impair fish larvae's sensory abilities, affect the morphology of otoliths, cause tissue damage and cause behavioural changes. Here, we obtain first experimental mortality estimates for Atlantic cod larvae under OA and incorporate these effects into recruitment models. End-of-century levels of ocean acidification (~1100 μatm according to the IPCC RCP 8.5) resulted in a doubling of daily mortality rates compared to present-day CO2 concentrations during the first 25 days post hatching (dph), a critical phase for population recruitment. These results were consistent under different feeding regimes, stocking densities and in two cod populations (Western Baltic and Barents Sea stock). When mortality data were included into Ricker-type stock-recruitment models, recruitment was reduced to an average of 8 and 24% of current recruitment for the two populations, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of including vulnerable early life stages when addressing effects of climate change on fish stocks.

How fragmentation and corridors affect wind dynamics and seed dispersal in open habitats

PubMed Central

Damschen, Ellen I.; Baker, Dirk V.; Bohrer, Gil; Nathan, Ran; Orrock, John L.; Turner, Jay R.; Brudvig, Lars A.; Haddad, Nick M.; Levey, Douglas J.; Tewksbury, Joshua J.

2014-01-01

Determining how widespread human-induced changes such as habitat loss, landscape fragmentation, and climate instability affect populations, communities, and ecosystems is one of the most pressing environmental challenges. Critical to this challenge is understanding how these changes are affecting the movement abilities and dispersal trajectories of organisms and what role conservation planning can play in promoting movement among remaining fragments of suitable habitat. Whereas evidence is mounting for how conservation strategies such as corridors impact animal movement, virtually nothing is known for species dispersed by wind, which are often mistakenly assumed to not be limited by dispersal. Here, we combine mechanistic dispersal models, wind measurements, and seed releases in a large-scale experimental landscape to show that habitat corridors affect wind dynamics and seed dispersal by redirecting and bellowing airflow and by increasing the likelihood of seed uplift. Wind direction interacts with landscape orientation to determine when corridors provide connectivity. Our results predict positive impacts of connectivity and patch shape on species richness of wind-dispersed plants, which we empirically illustrate using 12 y of data from our experimental landscapes. We conclude that habitat fragmentation and corridors strongly impact the movement of wind-dispersed species, which has community-level consequences. PMID:24567398

How fragmentation and corridors affect wind dynamics and seed dispersal in open habitats.

PubMed

Damschen, Ellen I; Baker, Dirk V; Bohrer, Gil; Nathan, Ran; Orrock, John L; Turner, Jay R; Brudvig, Lars A; Haddad, Nick M; Levey, Douglas J; Tewksbury, Joshua J

2014-03-04

Determining how widespread human-induced changes such as habitat loss, landscape fragmentation, and climate instability affect populations, communities, and ecosystems is one of the most pressing environmental challenges. Critical to this challenge is understanding how these changes are affecting the movement abilities and dispersal trajectories of organisms and what role conservation planning can play in promoting movement among remaining fragments of suitable habitat. Whereas evidence is mounting for how conservation strategies such as corridors impact animal movement, virtually nothing is known for species dispersed by wind, which are often mistakenly assumed to not be limited by dispersal. Here, we combine mechanistic dispersal models, wind measurements, and seed releases in a large-scale experimental landscape to show that habitat corridors affect wind dynamics and seed dispersal by redirecting and bellowing airflow and by increasing the likelihood of seed uplift. Wind direction interacts with landscape orientation to determine when corridors provide connectivity. Our results predict positive impacts of connectivity and patch shape on species richness of wind-dispersed plants, which we empirically illustrate using 12 y of data from our experimental landscapes. We conclude that habitat fragmentation and corridors strongly impact the movement of wind-dispersed species, which has community-level consequences.

What can we learn from resource pulses?

PubMed

Yang, Louie H; Bastow, Justin L; Spence, Kenneth O; Wright, Amber N

2008-03-01

An increasing number of studies in a wide range of natural systems have investigated how pulses of resource availability influence ecological processes at individual, population, and community levels. Taken together, these studies suggest that some common processes may underlie pulsed resource dynamics in a wide diversity of systems. Developing a common framework of terms and concepts for the study of resource pulses may facilitate greater synthesis among these apparently disparate systems. Here, we propose a general definition of the resource pulse concept, outline some common patterns in the causes and consequences of resource pulses, and suggest a few key questions for future investigations. We define resource pulses as episodes of increased resource availability in space and time that combine low frequency (rarity), large magnitude (intensity), and short duration (brevity), and emphasize the importance of considering resource pulses at spatial and temporal scales relevant to specific resource-onsumer interactions. Although resource pulses are uncommon events for consumers in specific systems, our review of the existing literature suggests that pulsed resource dynamics are actually widespread phenomena in nature. Resource pulses often result from climatic and environmental factors, processes of spatiotemporal accumulation and release, outbreak population dynamics, or a combination of these factors. These events can affect life history traits and behavior at the level of individual consumers, numerical responses at the population level, and indirect effects at the community level. Consumers show strategies for utilizing ephemeral resources opportunistically, reducing resource variability by averaging over larger spatial scales, and tolerating extended interpulse periods of reduced resource availability. Resource pulses can also create persistent effects in communities through several mechanisms. We suggest that the study of resource pulses provides opportunities to understand the dynamics of many specific systems, and may also contribute to broader ecological questions at individual, population, and community levels.

Distinct retrosplenial cortex cell populations and their spike dynamics during ketamine-induced unconscious state

PubMed Central

Zhao, Fang; Tsien, Joe Z.

2017-01-01

Ketamine is known to induce psychotic-like symptoms, including delirium and visual hallucinations. It also causes neuronal damage and cell death in the retrosplenial cortex (RSC), an area that is thought to be a part of high visual cortical pathways and at least partially responsible for ketamine’s psychotomimetic activities. However, the basic physiological properties of RSC cells as well as their response to ketamine in vivo remained largely unexplored. Here, we combine a computational method, the Inter-Spike Interval Classification Analysis (ISICA), and in vivo recordings to uncover and profile excitatory cell subtypes within layers 2&3 and 5&6 of the RSC in mice within both conscious, sleep, and ketamine-induced unconscious states. We demonstrate two distinct excitatory principal cell sub-populations, namely, high-bursting excitatory principal cells and low-bursting excitatory principal cells, within layers 2&3, and show that this classification is robust over the conscious states, namely quiet awake, and natural unconscious sleep periods. Similarly, we provide evidence of high-bursting and low-bursting excitatory principal cell sub-populations within layers 5&6 that remained distinct during quiet awake and sleep states. We further examined how these subtypes are dynamically altered by ketamine. During ketamine-induced unconscious state, these distinct excitatory principal cell subtypes in both layer 2&3 and layer 5&6 exhibited distinct dynamics. We also uncovered different dynamics of local field potential under various brain states in layer 2&3 and layer 5&6. Interestingly, ketamine administration induced high gamma oscillations in layer 2&3 of the RSC, but not layer 5&6. Our results show that excitatory principal cells within RSC layers 2&3 and 5&6 contain multiple physiologically distinct sub-populations, and they are differentially affected by ketamine. PMID:29073221

Distinct retrosplenial cortex cell populations and their spike dynamics during ketamine-induced unconscious state.

PubMed

Fox, Grace E; Li, Meng; Zhao, Fang; Tsien, Joe Z

2017-01-01

Ketamine is known to induce psychotic-like symptoms, including delirium and visual hallucinations. It also causes neuronal damage and cell death in the retrosplenial cortex (RSC), an area that is thought to be a part of high visual cortical pathways and at least partially responsible for ketamine's psychotomimetic activities. However, the basic physiological properties of RSC cells as well as their response to ketamine in vivo remained largely unexplored. Here, we combine a computational method, the Inter-Spike Interval Classification Analysis (ISICA), and in vivo recordings to uncover and profile excitatory cell subtypes within layers 2&3 and 5&6 of the RSC in mice within both conscious, sleep, and ketamine-induced unconscious states. We demonstrate two distinct excitatory principal cell sub-populations, namely, high-bursting excitatory principal cells and low-bursting excitatory principal cells, within layers 2&3, and show that this classification is robust over the conscious states, namely quiet awake, and natural unconscious sleep periods. Similarly, we provide evidence of high-bursting and low-bursting excitatory principal cell sub-populations within layers 5&6 that remained distinct during quiet awake and sleep states. We further examined how these subtypes are dynamically altered by ketamine. During ketamine-induced unconscious state, these distinct excitatory principal cell subtypes in both layer 2&3 and layer 5&6 exhibited distinct dynamics. We also uncovered different dynamics of local field potential under various brain states in layer 2&3 and layer 5&6. Interestingly, ketamine administration induced high gamma oscillations in layer 2&3 of the RSC, but not layer 5&6. Our results show that excitatory principal cells within RSC layers 2&3 and 5&6 contain multiple physiologically distinct sub-populations, and they are differentially affected by ketamine.

Setting realistic recovery targets for two interacting endangered species, sea otter and northern abalone.

PubMed

Chadès, Iadine; Curtis, Janelle M R; Martin, Tara G

2012-12-01

Failure to account for interactions between endangered species may lead to unexpected population dynamics, inefficient management strategies, waste of scarce resources, and, at worst, increased extinction risk. The importance of species interactions is undisputed, yet recovery targets generally do not account for such interactions. This shortcoming is a consequence of species-centered legislation, but also of uncertainty surrounding the dynamics of species interactions and the complexity of modeling such interactions. The northern sea otter (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) and one of its preferred prey, northern abalone (Haliotis kamtschatkana), are endangered species for which recovery strategies have been developed without consideration of their strong predator-prey interactions. Using simulation-based optimization procedures from artificial intelligence, namely reinforcement learning and stochastic dynamic programming, we combined sea otter and northern abalone population models with functional-response models and examined how different management actions affect population dynamics and the likelihood of achieving recovery targets for each species through time. Recovery targets for these interacting species were difficult to achieve simultaneously in the absence of management. Although sea otters were predicted to recover, achieving abalone recovery targets failed even when threats to abalone such as predation and poaching were reduced. A management strategy entailing a 50% reduction in the poaching of northern abalone was a minimum requirement to reach short-term recovery goals for northern abalone when sea otters were present. Removing sea otters had a marginally positive effect on the abalone population but only when we assumed a functional response with strong predation pressure. Our optimization method could be applied more generally to any interacting threatened or invasive species for which there are multiple conservation objectives. © 2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.

2010-01-01

We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotie fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

An approach of the exact linearization techniques to analysis of population dynamics of the mosquito Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Dos Reis, Célia A; Florentino, Helenice de O; Cólon, Diego; Rosa, Suélia R Fleury; Cantane, Daniela R

2018-05-01

Dengue fever, chikungunya and zika are caused by different viruses and mainly transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. These diseases have received special attention of public health officials due to the large number of infected people in tropical and subtropical countries and the possible sequels that those diseases can cause. In severe cases, the infection can have devastating effects, affecting the central nervous system, muscles, brain and respiratory system, often resulting in death. Vaccines against these diseases are still under development and, therefore, current studies are focused on the treatment of diseases and vector (mosquito) control. This work focuses on this last topic, and presents the analysis of a mathematical model describing the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, as well as present the design of a control law for the mosquito population (vector control) via exact linearization techniques and optimal control. This control strategy optimizes the use of resources for vector control, and focuses on the aquatic stage of the mosquito life. Theoretical and computational results are also presented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic model predicting overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity prevalence trends.

PubMed

Thomas, Diana M; Weedermann, Marion; Fuemmeler, Bernard F; Martin, Corby K; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V; Bredlau, Carl; Heymsfield, Steven B; Ravussin, Eric; Bouchard, Claude

2014-02-01

Obesity prevalence in the United States appears to be leveling, but the reasons behind the plateau remain unknown. Mechanistic insights can be provided from a mathematical model. The objective of this study is to model known multiple population parameters associated with changes in body mass index (BMI) classes and to establish conditions under which obesity prevalence will plateau. A differential equation system was developed that predicts population-wide obesity prevalence trends. The model considers both social and nonsocial influences on weight gain, incorporates other known parameters affecting obesity trends, and allows for country specific population growth. The dynamic model predicts that: obesity prevalence is a function of birthrate and the probability of being born in an obesogenic environment; obesity prevalence will plateau independent of current prevention strategies; and the US prevalence of overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity will plateau by about 2030 at 28%, 32%, and 9% respectively. The US prevalence of obesity is stabilizing and will plateau, independent of current preventative strategies. This trend has important implications in accurately evaluating the impact of various anti-obesity strategies aimed at reducing obesity prevalence. Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.

Effect of environment and fallow period on Cosmopolites sordidus population dynamics at the landscape scale.

PubMed

Duyck, P-F; Dortel, E; Vinatier, F; Gaujoux, E; Carval, D; Tixier, P

2012-10-01

Understanding how the population dynamics of insect pests are affected by environmental factors and agricultural practices is important for pest management. To investigate how the abundance of the banana weevil, Cosmopolites sordidus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is related to environmental factors and the length of the fallow period in Martinique, we developed an extensive data set (18,130 observations of weevil abundance obtained with pheromone traps plus associated environmental data) and analysed it with generalized mixed-effects models. At the island scale, C. sordidus abundance was positively related to mean temperature and negatively related to mean rainfall but was not related to soil type. The number of insects trapped was highest during the driest months of the year. Abundance of C. sordidus decreased as the duration of the preceding fallow period increased. The latter finding is inconsistent with the view that fallow-generated decomposing banana tissue is an important resource for larvae that leads to an increase in the pest population. The results are consistent with the view that fallows, in association with pheromone traps, are effective for the control of the banana weevil.

Disease-mediated bottom-up regulation: An emergent virus affects a keystone prey, and alters the dynamics of trophic webs

PubMed Central

Monterroso, Pedro; Garrote, Germán; Serronha, Ana; Santos, Emídio; Delibes-Mateos, Miguel; Abrantes, Joana; Perez de Ayala, Ramón; Silvestre, Fernando; Carvalho, João; Vasco, Inês; Lopes, Ana M.; Maio, Elisa; Magalhães, Maria J.; Mills, L. Scott; Esteves, Pedro J.; Simón, Miguel Ángel; Alves, Paulo C.

2016-01-01

Emergent diseases may alter the structure and functioning of ecosystems by creating new biotic interactions and modifying existing ones, producing cascading processes along trophic webs. Recently, a new variant of the rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV2 or RHDVb) arguably caused widespread declines in a keystone prey in Mediterranean ecosystems - the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). We quantitatively assess the impact of RHDV2 on natural rabbit populations and in two endangered apex predator populations: the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) and the Spanish Imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti). We found 60–70% declines in rabbit populations, followed by decreases of 65.7% in Iberian lynx and 45.5% in Spanish Imperial eagle fecundities. A revision of the web of trophic interactions among rabbits and their dependent predators suggests that RHDV2 acts as a keystone species, and may steer Mediterranean ecosystems to management-dependent alternative states, dominated by simplified mesopredator communities. This model system stresses the importance of diseases as functional players in the dynamics of trophic webs. PMID:27796353

Signatures of large-scale and local climates on the demography of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA.

PubMed

Wang, Guiming; Hobbs, N Thompson; Galbraith, Hector; Giesen, Kenneth M

2002-09-01

Global climate change may impact wildlife populations by affecting local weather patterns, which, in turn, can impact a variety of ecological processes. However, it is not clear that local variations in ecological processes can be explained by large-scale patterns of climate. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale climate phenomenon that has been shown to influence the population dynamics of some animals. Although effects of the NAO on vertebrate population dynamics have been studied, it remains uncertain whether it broadly predicts the impact of weather on species. We examined the ability of local weather data and the NAO to explain the annual variation in population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan ( Lagopus leucurus) in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA. We performed canonical correlation analysis on the demographic subspace of ptarmigan and local-climate subspace defined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) using data from 1975 to 1999. We found that two subspaces were significantly correlated on the first canonical variable. The Pearson correlation coefficient of the first EOF values of the demographic and local-climate subspaces was significant. The population density and the first EOF of local-climate subspace influenced the ptarmigan population with 1-year lags in the Gompertz model. However, the NAO index was neither related to the first two EOF of local-climate subspace nor to the first EOF of the demographic subspace of ptarmigan. Moreover, the NAO index was not a significant term in the Gompertz model for the ptarmigan population. Therefore, local climate had stronger signature on the demography of ptarmigan than did a large-scale index, i.e., the NAO index. We conclude that local responses of wildlife populations to changing climate may not be adequately explained by models that project large-scale climatic patterns.

Ecoepidemic predator-prey model with feeding satiation, prey herd behavior and abandoned infected prey.

PubMed

Kooi, Bob W; Venturino, Ezio

2016-04-01

In this paper we analyse a predator-prey model where the prey population shows group defense and the prey individuals are affected by a transmissible disease. The resulting model is of the Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey type with an SI (susceptible-infected) disease in the prey. Modeling prey group defense leads to a square root dependence in the Holling type II functional for the predator-prey interaction term. The system dynamics is investigated using simulations, classical existence and asymptotic stability analysis and numerical bifurcation analysis. A number of bifurcations, such as transcritical and Hopf bifurcations which occur commonly in predator-prey systems will be found. Because of the square root interaction term there is non-uniqueness of the solution and a singularity where the prey population goes extinct in a finite time. This results in a collapse initiated by extinction of the healthy or susceptible prey and thereafter the other population(s). When also a positive attractor exists this leads to bistability similar to what is found in predator-prey models with a strong Allee effect. For the two-dimensional disease-free (i.e. the purely demographic) system the region in the parameter space where bistability occurs is marked by a global bifurcation. At this bifurcation a heteroclinic connection exists between saddle prey-only equilibrium points where a stable limit cycle together with its basin of attraction, are destructed. In a companion paper (Gimmelli et al., 2015) the same model was formulated and analysed in which the disease was not in the prey but in the predator. There we also observed this phenomenon. Here we extend its analysis using a phase portrait analysis. For the three-dimensional ecoepidemic predator-prey system where the prey is affected by the disease, also tangent bifurcations including a cusp bifurcation and a torus bifurcation of limit cycles occur. This leads to new complex dynamics. Continuation by varying one parameter of the emerging quasi-periodic dynamics from a torus bifurcation can lead to its destruction by a collision with a saddle-cycle. Under other conditions the quasi-periodic dynamics changes gradually in a trajectory that lands on a boundary point where the prey go extinct in finite time after which a total collapse of the three-dimensional system occurs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Argentine stem weevil ( Listronotus bonariensis, Coleoptera: Curculionidae) population dynamics in Canterbury, New Zealand dryland pasture.

PubMed

Goldson, S L; Barron, M C; Kean, J M; van Koten, C

2011-06-01

The Argentine stem weevil (Listronotus bonariensis) was an economically important pest in New Zealand pastures until the release of the parasitoid Microctonus hyperodae. This contribution uses historical data to investigate the regulation of the pest populations prior to, and somewhat during, the establishment of this parasitoid in dryland Canterbury, New Zealand. Thus, a significant goal of this study is to provide an L. bonariensis population dynamics baseline for any future work that aims to analyse the full effects of M. hyperodae on the weevil, now that equilibrium with the weevil host has been reached.The population dynamics of L. bonariensis, based on a life-table approach, were investigated using data collected regularly for eight years from populations in Canterbury, New Zealand. The key factor affecting end-of-season L. bonariensis density was found to be variation in second generation fourth instar prepupal and pupal mortality. This may have been caused by arrested development and ongoing mortality resulting from the onset of cooler autumnal conditions.A compensatory response was found in recruitment to the second summer weevil generation, whereby the realised fecundity of the emergent first summer generation of weevils was found to be negatively related to the density of adult weevils per ryegrass tiller. This is the first time that this has been found via long-term population analysis of L. bonariensis, although indications of this have been found elsewhere in caging, pot and small plot experiments.In this study, the effect of the parasitoid biocontrol agent Microctonus hyperodae on L. bonariensis population dynamics was unclear, as the analysis covered a period when the parasitoid Microctonus hyperodae was introduced and still establishing. It does, however, raise important questions for future analysis in terms of the interaction between parasitism and unrealised fecundity.The results in this contribution also highlighted regional differences. Overwintering mortality of adult weevils in Canterbury was constant between years, whilst earlier studies in the North Island Waikato region indicated this mortality was density dependent. In addition, the availability of tillers in endophyte-free ryegrass pastures in Canterbury had no influence on egg and early-instar larval survival, which contrasts with the finding from endophytic Waikato pastures.

A fitness trade-off between seasons causes multigenerational cycles in phenotype and population size

PubMed Central

Betini, Gustavo S; McAdam, Andrew G; Griswold, Cortland K; Norris, D Ryan

2017-01-01

Although seasonality is widespread and can cause fluctuations in the intensity and direction of natural selection, we have little information about the consequences of seasonal fitness trade-offs for population dynamics. Here we exposed populations of Drosophila melanogaster to repeated seasonal changes in resources across 58 generations and used experimental and mathematical approaches to investigate how viability selection on body size in the non-breeding season could affect demography. We show that opposing seasonal episodes of natural selection on body size interacted with both direct and delayed density dependence to cause populations to undergo predictable multigenerational density cycles. Our results provide evidence that seasonality can set the conditions for life-history trade-offs and density dependence, which can, in turn, interact to cause multigenerational population cycles. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18770.001 PMID:28164780

Fixation of slightly beneficial mutations: effects of life history.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Lee, Aline Magdalena; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2010-04-01

Recent studies of rates of evolution have revealed large systematic differences among organisms with different life histories, both within and among taxa. Here, we consider how life history may affect the rate of evolution via its influence on the fixation probability of slightly beneficial mutations. Our approach is based on diffusion modeling for a finite, stage-structured population with stochastic population dynamics. The results, which are verified by computer simulations, demonstrate that even with complex population structure just two demographic parameters are sufficient to give an accurate approximation of the fixation probability of a slightly beneficial mutation. These are the reproductive value of the stage in which the mutation first occurs and the demographic variance of the population. The demographic variance also determines what influence population size has on the fixation probability. This model represents a substantial generalization of earlier models, covering a large range of life histories.

Transmission of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer: Implications for disease spread and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jennelle, Christopher S.; Henaux, Viviane; Wasserberg, Gideon; Thiagarajan, Bala; Rolley, Robert E.; Samuel, Michael D.

2014-01-01

Few studies have evaluated the rate of infection or mode of transmission for wildlife diseases, and the implications of alternative management strategies. We used hunter harvest data from 2002 to 2013 to investigate chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection rate and transmission modes, and address how alternative management approaches affect disease dynamics in a Wisconsin white-tailed deer population. Uncertainty regarding demographic impacts of CWD on cervid populations, human and domestic animal health concerns, and potential economic consequences underscore the need for strategies to control CWD distribution and prevalence. Using maximum-likelihood methods to evaluate alternative multi-state deterministic models of CWD transmission, harvest data strongly supports a frequency-dependent transmission structure with sex-specific infection rates that are two times higher in males than females. As transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are an important and difficult-to-study class of diseases with major economic and ecological implications, our work supports the hypothesis of frequency-dependent transmission in wild deer at a broad spatial scale and indicates that effective harvest management can be implemented to control CWD prevalence. Specifically, we show that harvest focused on the greater-affected sex (males) can result in stable population dynamics and control of CWD within the next 50 years, given the constraints of the model. We also provide a quantitative estimate of geographic disease spread in southern Wisconsin, validating qualitative assessments that CWD spreads relatively slowly. Given increased discovery and distribution of CWD throughout North America, insights from our study are valuable to management agencies and to the general public concerned about the impacts of CWD on white-tailed deer populations.

Transmission of Chronic Wasting Disease in Wisconsin White-Tailed Deer: Implications for Disease Spread and Management

PubMed Central

Jennelle, Christopher S.; Henaux, Viviane; Wasserberg, Gideon; Thiagarajan, Bala; Rolley, Robert E.; Samuel, Michael D.

2014-01-01

Few studies have evaluated the rate of infection or mode of transmission for wildlife diseases, and the implications of alternative management strategies. We used hunter harvest data from 2002 to 2013 to investigate chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection rate and transmission modes, and address how alternative management approaches affect disease dynamics in a Wisconsin white-tailed deer population. Uncertainty regarding demographic impacts of CWD on cervid populations, human and domestic animal health concerns, and potential economic consequences underscore the need for strategies to control CWD distribution and prevalence. Using maximum-likelihood methods to evaluate alternative multi-state deterministic models of CWD transmission, harvest data strongly supports a frequency-dependent transmission structure with sex-specific infection rates that are two times higher in males than females. As transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are an important and difficult-to-study class of diseases with major economic and ecological implications, our work supports the hypothesis of frequency-dependent transmission in wild deer at a broad spatial scale and indicates that effective harvest management can be implemented to control CWD prevalence. Specifically, we show that harvest focused on the greater-affected sex (males) can result in stable population dynamics and control of CWD within the next 50 years, given the constraints of the model. We also provide a quantitative estimate of geographic disease spread in southern Wisconsin, validating qualitative assessments that CWD spreads relatively slowly. Given increased discovery and distribution of CWD throughout North America, insights from our study are valuable to management agencies and to the general public concerned about the impacts of CWD on white-tailed deer populations. PMID:24658535

A Markov model for the temporal dynamics of balanced random networks of finite size

PubMed Central

Lagzi, Fereshteh; Rotter, Stefan

2014-01-01

The balanced state of recurrent networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons is characterized by fluctuations of population activity about an attractive fixed point. Numerical simulations show that these dynamics are essentially nonlinear, and the intrinsic noise (self-generated fluctuations) in networks of finite size is state-dependent. Therefore, stochastic differential equations with additive noise of fixed amplitude cannot provide an adequate description of the stochastic dynamics. The noise model should, rather, result from a self-consistent description of the network dynamics. Here, we consider a two-state Markovian neuron model, where spikes correspond to transitions from the active state to the refractory state. Excitatory and inhibitory input to this neuron affects the transition rates between the two states. The corresponding nonlinear dependencies can be identified directly from numerical simulations of networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons, discretized at a time resolution in the sub-millisecond range. Deterministic mean-field equations, and a noise component that depends on the dynamic state of the network, are obtained from this model. The resulting stochastic model reflects the behavior observed in numerical simulations quite well, irrespective of the size of the network. In particular, a strong temporal correlation between the two populations, a hallmark of the balanced state in random recurrent networks, are well represented by our model. Numerical simulations of such networks show that a log-normal distribution of short-term spike counts is a property of balanced random networks with fixed in-degree that has not been considered before, and our model shares this statistical property. Furthermore, the reconstruction of the flow from simulated time series suggests that the mean-field dynamics of finite-size networks are essentially of Wilson-Cowan type. We expect that this novel nonlinear stochastic model of the interaction between neuronal populations also opens new doors to analyze the joint dynamics of multiple interacting networks. PMID:25520644

A mathematical model of Chagas disease transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidayat, Dayat; Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Nuraini, Nuning

2018-03-01

Chagas disease is a parasitic infection caused by protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi which is transmitted to human by insects of the subfamily Triatominae, including Rhodnius prolixus. This disease is a major problem in several countries of Latin America. A mathematical model of Chagas disease with separate vector reservoir and a neighboring human resident is constructed. The basic reproductive ratio is obtained and stability analysis of the equilibria is shown. We also performed sensitivity populations dynamics of infected humans and infected insects based on migration rate, carrying capacity, and infection rate parameters. Our findings showed that the dynamics of the infected human and insect is mostly affected by carrying capacity insect in the settlement.

Dynamics of Sylvatic Chagas Disease Vectors in Coastal Ecuador Is Driven by Changes in Land Cover

PubMed Central

Grijalva, Mario J.; Terán, David; Dangles, Olivier

2014-01-01

Background Chagas disease is a serious public health problem in Latin America where about ten million individuals show Trypanosoma cruzi infection. Despite significant success in controlling domiciliated triatomines, sylvatic populations frequently infest houses after insecticide treatment which hampers long term control prospects in vast geographical areas where vectorial transmission is endemic. As a key issue, the spatio-temporal dynamics of sylvatic populations is likely influenced by landscape yet evidence showing this effect is rare. The aim of this work is to examine the role of land cover changes in sylvatic triatomine ecology, based on an exhaustive field survey of pathogens, vectors, hosts, and microhabitat characteristics' dynamics. Methodology and Principal Findings The study was performed in agricultural landscapes of coastal Ecuador as a study model. Over one year, a spatially-randomized sampling design (490 collection points) allowed quantifying triatomine densities in natural, cultivated and domestic habitats. We also assessed infection of the bugs with trypanosomes, documented their microhabitats and potential hosts, and recorded changes in landscape characteristics. In total we collected 886 individuals, mainly represented by nymphal stages of one triatomine species Rhodnius ecuadoriensis. As main results, we found that 1) sylvatic triatomines had very high T. cruzi infection rates (71%) and 2) densities of T. cruzi-infected sylvatic triatomines varied predictably over time due to changes in land cover and occurrence of associated rodent hosts. Conclusion We propose a framework for identifying the factors affecting the yearly distribution of sylvatic T. cruzi vectors. Beyond providing key basic information for the control of human habitat colonization by sylvatic vector populations, our framework highlights the importance of both environmental and sociological factors in shaping the spatio-temporal population dynamics of triatomines. A better understanding of the dynamics of such socio-ecological systems is a crucial, yet poorly considered, issue for the long-term control of Chagas disease. PMID:24968118

Stochastic predation events and population persistence in bighorn sheep

PubMed Central

Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coulson, Tim; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Hogg, John T; Pelletier, Fanie

2006-01-01

Many studies have reported temporal changes in the relative importance of density-dependence and environmental stochasticity in affecting population growth rates, but they typically assume that the predominant factor limiting growth remains constant over long periods of time. Stochastic switches in limiting factors that persist for multiple time-steps have received little attention, but most wild populations may periodically experience such switches. Here, we consider the dynamics of three populations of individually marked bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) monitored for 24–28 years. Each population experienced one or two distinct cougar (Puma concolor) predation events leading to population declines. The onset and duration of predation events were stochastic and consistent with predation by specialist individuals. A realistic Markov chain model confirms that predation by specialist cougars can cause extinction of isolated populations. We suggest that such processes may be common. In such cases, predator–prey equilibria may only occur at large geographical and temporal scales, and are unlikely with increasing habitat fragmentation. PMID:16777749

Whole-genome sequencing of giant pandas provides insights into demographic history and local adaptation.

PubMed

Zhao, Shancen; Zheng, Pingping; Dong, Shanshan; Zhan, Xiangjiang; Wu, Qi; Guo, Xiaosen; Hu, Yibo; He, Weiming; Zhang, Shanning; Fan, Wei; Zhu, Lifeng; Li, Dong; Zhang, Xuemei; Chen, Quan; Zhang, Hemin; Zhang, Zhihe; Jin, Xuelin; Zhang, Jinguo; Yang, Huanming; Wang, Jian; Wang, Jun; Wei, Fuwen

2013-01-01

The panda lineage dates back to the late Miocene and ultimately leads to only one extant species, the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). Although global climate change and anthropogenic disturbances are recognized to shape animal population demography their contribution to panda population dynamics remains largely unknown. We sequenced the whole genomes of 34 pandas at an average 4.7-fold coverage and used this data set together with the previously deep-sequenced panda genome to reconstruct a continuous demographic history of pandas from their origin to the present. We identify two population expansions, two bottlenecks and two divergences. Evidence indicated that, whereas global changes in climate were the primary drivers of population fluctuation for millions of years, human activities likely underlie recent population divergence and serious decline. We identified three distinct panda populations that show genetic adaptation to their environments. However, in all three populations, anthropogenic activities have negatively affected pandas for 3,000 years.

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient

PubMed Central

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-01-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients. PMID:22588131

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient.

PubMed

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-09-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients.

Factors affecting unintentional harvesting selectivity in a monomorphic species.

PubMed

Bunnefeld, Nils; Baines, David; Newborn, David; Milner-Gulland, E J

2009-03-01

1. Changes in the abundance of populations have always perplexed ecologists but long-term studies are revealing new insights into population dynamic processes. Long-term data are often derived from harvest records although many wild populations face high harvesting pressures leading to overharvesting and extinction. Additionally, harvest records used to describe population processes such as fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success often assume a random off-take. 2. Selective harvesting based on phenotypic characteristics occurs in many species (e.g. trophy hunting, fisheries) and has important implications for population dynamics, conservation and management. 3. In species with no marked morphological differences between the age and sex classes, such as the red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus during the shooting season, hunters cannot consciously select for a specific sex or age class during the shooting process but harvest records could still give a biased reflection of the population structure because of differences in behaviour between age and sex classes. 4. This study compared age and sex ratios in the bag with those in the population before shooting for red grouse at different points in the shooting season and different densities, which has rarely been tested before. 5. More young than old grouse were shot at large bag sizes and vice versa for small bag sizes than would be expected from the population composition before shooting. The susceptibility of old males to shooting compared to females increased with bag size and was high at the first time the area was shot but decreased with the number of times an area was harvested. 6. These findings stress that the assumption made in many studies that harvest records reflect the age and sex ratio of the population and therefore reflect productivity can be misleading. 7. In this paper, as in the literature, it is also shown that number of grouse shot reflects grouse density and therefore that hunting selectivity might influence population dynamics in a cyclic species. 8. The study is not only relevant for red grouse but applies to systems showing interactions between selective harvesting and wider ecological processes, such as age- and sex-related parasitism and territoriality, which may drive population fluctuations.

Human seizures couple across spatial scales through travelling wave dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinet, L.-E.; Fiddyment, G.; Madsen, J. R.; Eskandar, E. N.; Truccolo, W.; Eden, U. T.; Cash, S. S.; Kramer, M. A.

2017-04-01

Epilepsy--the propensity toward recurrent, unprovoked seizures--is a devastating disease affecting 65 million people worldwide. Understanding and treating this disease remains a challenge, as seizures manifest through mechanisms and features that span spatial and temporal scales. Here we address this challenge through the analysis and modelling of human brain voltage activity recorded simultaneously across microscopic and macroscopic spatial scales. We show that during seizure large-scale neural populations spanning centimetres of cortex coordinate with small neural groups spanning cortical columns, and provide evidence that rapidly propagating waves of activity underlie this increased inter-scale coupling. We develop a corresponding computational model to propose specific mechanisms--namely, the effects of an increased extracellular potassium concentration diffusing in space--that support the observed spatiotemporal dynamics. Understanding the multi-scale, spatiotemporal dynamics of human seizures--and connecting these dynamics to specific biological mechanisms--promises new insights to treat this devastating disease.

Clinical study and numerical simulation of brain cancer dynamics under radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nawrocki, S.; Zubik-Kowal, B.

2015-05-01

We perform a clinical and numerical study of the progression of brain cancer tumor growth dynamics coupled with the effects of radiotherapy. We obtained clinical data from a sample of brain cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy and compare it to our numerical simulations to a mathematical model of brain tumor cell population growth influenced by radiation treatment. We model how the body biologically receives a physically delivered dose of radiation to the affected tumorous area in the form of a generalized LQ model, modified to account for the conversion process of sublethal lesions into lethal lesions at high radiation doses. We obtain good agreement between our clinical data and our numerical simulations of brain cancer progression given by the mathematical model, which couples tumor growth dynamics and the effect of irradiation. The correlation, spanning a wide dataset, demonstrates the potential of the mathematical model to describe the dynamics of brain tumor growth influenced by radiotherapy.

Interactive effects of wildfire, forest management, and isolation on amphibian and parasite abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, Blake R.; Corn, P. Stephen; Winsor H. Lowe,; R. Kenneth Honeycutt,; Sean A. Parks,

2013-01-01

Projected increases in wildfire and other climate-driven disturbances will affect populations and communities worldwide, including host–parasite relationships. Research in temperate forests has shown that wildfire can negatively affect amphibians, but this research has occurred primarily outside of managed landscapes where interactions with human disturbances could result in additive or synergistic effects. Furthermore, parasites represent a large component of biodiversity and can affect host fitness and population dynamics, yet they are rarely included in studies of how vertebrate hosts respond to disturbance. To determine how wildfire affects amphibians and their parasites, and whether effects differ between protected and managed landscapes, we compared abundance of two amphibians and two nematodes relative to wildfire extent and severity around wetlands in neighboring protected and managed forests (Montana, USA). Population sizes of adult, male long-toed salamanders (Ambystoma macrodactylum) decreased with increased burn severity, with stronger negative effects on isolated populations and in managed forests. In contrast, breeding population sizes of Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) increased with burn extent in both protected and managed protected forests. Path analysis showed that the effects of wildfire on the two species of nematodes were consistent with differences in their life history and transmission strategies and the responses of their hosts. Burn severity indirectly reduced abundance of soil-transmitted Cosmocercoides variabilis through reductions in salamander abundance. Burn severity also directly reduced C. variabilis abundance, possibly though changes in soil conditions. For the aquatically transmitted nematode Gyrinicola batrachiensis, the positive effect of burn extent on density of Columbia spotted frog larvae indirectly increased parasite abundance. Our results show that effects of wildfire on amphibians depend upon burn extent and severity, isolation, and prior land use. Through subsequent effects on the parasites, our results also reveal how changes in disturbance regimes can affect communities across trophic levels.

Behavioural responses to human-induced change: Why fishing should not be ignored.

PubMed

Diaz Pauli, Beatriz; Sih, Andrew

2017-03-01

Change in behaviour is usually the first response to human-induced environmental change and key for determining whether a species adapts to environmental change or becomes maladapted. Thus, understanding the behavioural response to human-induced changes is crucial in the interplay between ecology, evolution, conservation and management. Yet the behavioural response to fishing activities has been largely ignored. We review studies contrasting how fish behaviour affects catch by passive (e.g., long lines, angling) versus active gears (e.g., trawls, seines). We show that fishing not only targets certain behaviours, but it leads to a multitrait response including behavioural, physiological and life-history traits with population, community and ecosystem consequences. Fisheries-driven change (plastic or evolutionary) of fish behaviour and its correlated traits could impact fish populations well beyond their survival per se , affecting predation risk, foraging behaviour, dispersal, parental care, etc., and hence numerous ecological issues including population dynamics and trophic cascades . In particular, we discuss implications of behavioural responses to fishing for fisheries management and population resilience. More research on these topics, however, is needed to draw general conclusions, and we suggest fruitful directions for future studies.

VLF Wave Properties During Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blancarte, J.; Artemyev, A.; Mozer, F.; Agapitov, O. V.

2017-12-01

Whistler-mode chorus is important for the global dynamics of the inner magnetosphere electron population due to its ability to scatter and accelerate electrons of a wide energy range in the outer radiation belt. The parameters of these VLF emissions change dynamically during geomagnetic storms. Presented is an analysis of four years of Van Allen probe data, utilizing electric and magnetic field in the VLF range focused on the dynamics of chorus wave properties during the enhancement of geomagnetic activity. It is found that VLF emissions respond to geomagnetic storms in more complicated ways than just by affecting the waves' amplitude growth or depletion. Oblique wave amplitudes grow together with parallel waves during periods of intermediate geomagnetic activity, while the occurrence rate of oblique waves decreases during larger geomagnetic storms.

Behavioral Response of Hermit Crabs (Clibanarius digueti) to Dissolved Carbon Dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maier, H. J.

2015-12-01

CO2 induced ocean acidification is currently changing the population dynamics of marine organisms. As a result of ocean acidification, marine organisms expend extra energy on modifying behaviors. The current rate of ocean acidification will deplete the marine food chain that much of the world relies on as their major food supply. The purpose of this study was to understand whether and how ocean acidification affects the behavior of hermit crabs Clibanarius digueti. We hypothesized that an increase in carbonic acid would modify grazing and individual movement, because an increase in acidification alters the normal chemical composition of the water and potentially the niche occupancy of C. digueti. A model tidal pool experiment consisting of two tanks (control and treatment) inhabited with seven living C. digueti was set up in the Ocean Biome of Biosphere-2. Each tank was also provided with uninhabited shells: two Turbo fluctuosa and four Cerithium sp. Gaseous CO2 was dissolved into a treatment tank and measured as dissolved CO2 by using a sodium hydroxide titration method. Additionally, water conditions were characterized for UV- light and temperature. Two trials were run in this experiment with tanks and treatments interchanged in each trial. We assessed whether increased CO2 affected hermit crab shell change rate. We found that shell changes only happened among C. digueti placed under increased CO2. The information from this analysis will allow us to assess whether ocean acidification affects basic behavior in hermit crabs, which could later affect population dynamics. Bringing together all of this information will allow us to measure the effects of climate change on the behavior of C.Digueti.

Approximate reduction of linear population models governed by stochastic differential equations: application to multiregional models.

PubMed

Sanz, Luis; Alonso, Juan Antonio

2017-12-01

In this work we develop approximate aggregation techniques in the context of slow-fast linear population models governed by stochastic differential equations and apply the results to the treatment of populations with spatial heterogeneity. Approximate aggregation techniques allow one to transform a complex system involving many coupled variables and in which there are processes with different time scales, by a simpler reduced model with a fewer number of 'global' variables, in such a way that the dynamics of the former can be approximated by that of the latter. In our model we contemplate a linear fast deterministic process together with a linear slow process in which the parameters are affected by additive noise, and give conditions for the solutions corresponding to positive initial conditions to remain positive for all times. By letting the fast process reach equilibrium we build a reduced system with a lesser number of variables, and provide results relating the asymptotic behaviour of the first- and second-order moments of the population vector for the original and the reduced system. The general technique is illustrated by analysing a multiregional stochastic system in which dispersal is deterministic and the rate growth of the populations in each patch is affected by additive noise.

Beyond mice and men: Environmental change, immunity and infections in wild ungulates

PubMed Central

Jolles, Anna E.; Beechler, Brianna R.; Dolan, Brian P.

2014-01-01

In the face of rapid environmental change, anticipating shifts in microparasite and macroparasite dynamics, including emergence events, is an enormous challenge. We argue that immunological studies in natural populations are pivotal to meeting this challenge: Many components of environmental change – shifts in biotic assemblages, altered climate patterns, and reduced environmental predictability – may affect host immunity. We suggest that wild ungulates can serve as model systems aiding the discovery of immunological mechanisms that link environmental change with parasite transmission dynamics. Our review of eco-immunological studies in wild ungulates reveals progress in understanding how co-infections affect immunity and parasite transmission; and how environmental and genetic factors interact to shape immunity. Changes in bioavailability of micronutrients have been linked to immunity and health in wild ungulates. Although physiological stress in response to environmental change has been assessed, downstream effects on immunity have not been studied. Moreover, the taxonomic range of ungulates studied is limited to bovids (bighorn sheep, Soay sheep, chamois, musk oxen, bison, African buffalo) and a few cervids (red deer, black-tailed deer). We discuss areas where future studies in ungulates could lead to significant contributions in understanding patterns of immunity and infection in natural populations and across species. PMID:25354672

Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

PubMed Central

Plowright, Raina K.; Eby, Peggy; Hudson, Peter J.; Smith, Ina L.; Westcott, David; Bryden, Wayne L.; Middleton, Deborah; Reid, Peter A.; McFarlane, Rosemary A.; Martin, Gerardo; Tabor, Gary M.; Skerratt, Lee F.; Anderson, Dale L.; Crameri, Gary; Quammen, David; Jordan, David; Freeman, Paul; Wang, Lin-Fa; Epstein, Jonathan H.; Marsh, Glenn A.; Kung, Nina Y.; McCallum, Hamish

2015-01-01

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility. PMID:25392474

Population density and climate shape early-life survival and recruitment in a long-lived pelagic seabird.

PubMed

Fay, Rémi; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Barbraud, Christophe

2015-09-01

1. Our understanding of demographic processes is mainly based on analyses of traits from the adult component of populations. Early-life demographic traits are poorly known mainly for methodological reasons. Yet, survival of juvenile and immature individuals is critical for the recruitment into the population and thus for the whole population dynamic, especially for long-lived species. This bias currently restrains our ability to fully understand population dynamics of long-lived species and life-history theory. 2. The goal of this study was to estimate the early-life demographic parameters of a long-lived species with a long immature period (9-10 years), to test for sex and age effects on these parameters and to identify the environmental factors encountered during the period of immaturity that may influence survival and recruitment. 3. Using capture-mark-recapture multievent models allowing us to deal with uncertain and unobservable individual states, we analysed a long-term data set of wandering albatrosses to estimate both age- and sex-specific early-life survival and recruitment. We investigated environmental factors potentially driving these demographic traits using climatic and fisheries covariates and tested for density dependence. 4. Our study provides for the first time an estimate of annual survival during the first 2 years at sea for an albatross species (0·801 ± 0·014). Both age and sex affected early-life survival and recruitment processes of this long-lived seabird species. Early-life survival and recruitment were highly variable across years although the sensitivity of young birds to environmental variability decreased with age. Early-life survival was negatively associated with sea surface temperature, and recruitment rate was positively related to both Southern Annular Mode and sea surface temperature. We found strong evidence for density-dependent mortality of juveniles. Population size explained 41% of the variation of this parameter over the study period. 5. These results indicate that early-life survival and recruitment were strongly age and sex dependent in a dimorphic long-lived species. In addition, early-life demographic parameters were affected by natal environmental conditions and by environmental conditions faced during the period of immaturity. Finally, our results constitute one of the first demonstrations of density dependence on juvenile survival in seabirds, with major consequences for our understanding of population dynamics in seabirds. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

How Ebola impacts genetics of Western lowland gorilla populations.

PubMed

Le Gouar, Pascaline J; Vallet, Dominique; David, Laetitia; Bermejo, Magdalena; Gatti, Sylvain; Levréro, Florence; Petit, Eric J; Ménard, Nelly

2009-12-18

Emerging infectious diseases in wildlife are major threats for both human health and biodiversity conservation. Infectious diseases can have serious consequences for the genetic diversity of populations, which could enhance the species' extinction probability. The Ebola epizootic in western and central Africa induced more than 90% mortality in Western lowland gorilla population. Although mortality rates are very high, the impacts of Ebola on genetic diversity of Western lowland gorilla have never been assessed. We carried out long term studies of three populations of Western lowland gorilla in the Republic of the Congo (Odzala-Kokoua National Park, Lossi gorilla sanctuary both affected by Ebola and Lossi's periphery not affected). Using 17 microsatellite loci, we compared genetic diversity and structure of the populations and estimate their effective size before and after Ebola outbreaks. Despite the effective size decline in both populations, we did not detect loss in genetic diversity after the epizootic. We revealed temporal changes in allele frequencies in the smallest population. Immigration and short time elapsed since outbreaks could explain the conservation of genetic diversity after the demographic crash. Temporal changes in allele frequencies could not be explained by genetic drift or random sampling. Immigration from genetically differentiated populations and a non random mortality induced by Ebola, i.e., selective pressure and cost of sociality, are alternative hypotheses. Understanding the influence of Ebola on gorilla genetic dynamics is of paramount importance for human health, primate evolution and conservation biology.

Life history and past demography maintain genetic structure, outcrossing rate, contemporary pollen gene flow of an understory herb in a highly fragmented rainforest

PubMed Central

Suárez-Montes, Pilar; Chávez-Pesqueira, Mariana

2016-01-01

Introduction Theory predicts that habitat fragmentation, by reducing population size and increasing isolation among remnant populations, can alter their genetic diversity and structure. A cascade of effects is expected: genetic drift and inbreeding after a population bottleneck, changes in biotic interactions that may affect, as in the case of plants, pollen dynamics, mating system, reproductive success. The detection of the effects of contemporary habitat fragmentation on the genetic structure of populations are conditioned by the magnitude of change, given the few number of generations since the onset of fragmentation, especially for long-lived organisms. However, the present-day genetic structure of populations may bear the signature of past demography events. Here, we examine the effects of rainforest fragmentation on the genetic diversity, population structure, mating system (outcrossing rate), indirect gene flow and contemporary pollen dynamics in the understory herb Aphelandra aurantiaca. Also, we assessed its present-day genetic structure under different past demographic scenarios. Methods Twelve populations of A. aurantiaca were sampled in large (4), medium (3), and small (5) forest fragments in the lowland tropical rainforest at Los Tuxtlas region. Variation at 11 microsatellite loci was assessed in 28–30 reproductive plants per population. In two medium- and two large-size fragments we estimated the density of reproductive plants, and the mating system by analyzing the progeny of different mother plants per population. Results Despite prevailing habitat fragmentation, populations of A. aurantiaca possess high genetic variation (He = 0.61), weak genetic structure (Rst = 0.037), and slight inbreeding in small fragments. Effective population sizes (Ne) were large, but slightly lower in small fragments. Migrants derive mostly from large and medium size fragments. Gene dispersal is highly restricted but long distance gene dispersal events were detected. Aphelandra aurantiaca shows a mixed mating system (tm = 0.81) and the outcrossing rate have not been affected by habitat fragmentation. A strong pollen pool structure was detected due to few effective pollen donors (Nep) and low distance pollen movement, pointing that most plants received pollen from close neighbors. Past demographic fluctuations may have affected the present population genetic structure as Bayesian coalescent analysis revealed the signature of past population expansion, possibly during warmer conditions after the last glacial maximum. Discussion Habitat fragmentation has not increased genetic differentiation or reduced genetic diversity of A. aurantiaca despite dozens of generations since the onset of fragmentation in the region of Los Tuxtlas. Instead, past population expansion is compatible with the lack of observed genetic structure. The predicted negative effects of rainforest fragmentation on genetic diversity and population structure of A. aurantiaca seem to have been buffered owing to its large effective populations and long-distance dispersal events. In particular, its mixed-mating system, mostly of outcrossing, suggests high efficiency of pollinators promoting connectivity and reducing inbreeding. However, some results point that the effects of fragmentation are underway, as two small fragments showed higher membership probabilities to their population of origin, suggesting genetic isolation. Our findings underscore the importance of fragment size to maintain genetic connectivity across the landscape. PMID:28028460

[Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

PubMed

Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

2015-01-01

The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

Flowering and floral visitation predict changes in community structure provided that mycorrhizas remain intact.

PubMed

Bennett, Jonathan A; Cahill, James F

2018-06-01

Pollination is critical for plant fitness and population dynamics, yet little attention is paid to the role of flowering and plant-pollinator interactions in structuring plant communities, including community responses to environmental change. Changes in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), nutrient abundances, and plant litter all affect plant access to different resources, and are known regulators of community structure. Each factor can also affect flowering and plant-pollinator interactions, potentially contributing to changes in community structure. To test whether AMF, nutrients, and litter influenced the relationship between pollination and community structure, we conducted a 5-yr field experiment applying fungicide, adding fertilizer, and removing plant litter in native grassland. We measured the distribution of flowers and floral visits among species in year three and linked these measures to changes in plant composition and species richness between years three and five. We hypothesized that an uneven distribution of flowers and visits among species would lead to greater community change, but that the treatments would disrupt this relationship by altering sexual allocation and recruitment. Consistent with our hypothesis, communities with uneven flower distributions exhibited greater changes in community composition and richness under ambient conditions. However, AMF suppression neutralized this relationship and regulated the other treatment effects, highlighting the potential importance of AMF for stabilizing recruitment dynamics. Combined, AMF suppression and nutrient addition caused species losses when few species flowered, likely by compounding stresses for those species. The treatment effects on the relationship between flowering and community composition were more nuanced, but were likely driven by increased competition and altered flowering among species. By contrast, community composition was more stable when visitation rates were uneven among species, irrespective of any treatments. This suggests that some species require high visitation rates to maintain their populations due to greater dependence on sexual reproduction. Combined, these results highlight the importance of flowering and floral visitation to the dynamics of grassland communities. They also suggest that altered recruitment dynamics is a major, yet understudied, mechanism by which environmental change affects communities. Consequently, understanding the effects of environmental change on plant communities will require study of both plant growth and sexual reproduction. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Long-Term Irrigation Affects the Dynamics and Activity of the Wheat Rhizosphere Microbiome

PubMed Central

Mavrodi, Dmitri V.; Mavrodi, Olga V.; Elbourne, Liam D. H.; Tetu, Sasha; Bonsall, Robert F.; Parejko, James; Yang, Mingming; Paulsen, Ian T.; Weller, David M.; Thomashow, Linda S.

2018-01-01

The Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) encompasses 1. 6 million cropland hectares and is a major wheat-producing area in the western United States. The climate throughout the region is semi-arid, making the availability of water a significant challenge for IPNW agriculture. Much attention has been given to uncovering the effects of water stress on the physiology of wheat and the dynamics of its soilborne diseases. In contrast, the impact of soil moisture on the establishment and activity of microbial communities in the rhizosphere of dryland wheat remains poorly understood. We addressed this gap by conducting a three-year field study involving wheat grown in adjacent irrigated and dryland (rainfed) plots established in Lind, Washington State. We used deep amplicon sequencing of the V4 region of the 16S rRNA to characterize the responses of the wheat rhizosphere microbiome to overhead irrigation. We also characterized the population dynamics and activity of indigenous Phz+ rhizobacteria that produce the antibiotic phenazine-1-carboxylic acid (PCA) and contribute to the natural suppression of soilborne pathogens of wheat. Results of the study revealed that irrigation affected the Phz+ rhizobacteria adversely, which was evident from the significantly reduced plant colonization frequency, population size and levels of PCA in the field. The observed differences between irrigated and dryland plots were reproducible and amplified over the course of the study, thus identifying soil moisture as a critical abiotic factor that influences the dynamics, and activity of indigenous Phz+ communities. The three seasons of irrigation had a slight effect on the overall diversity within the rhizosphere microbiome but led to significant differences in the relative abundances of specific OTUs. In particular, irrigation differentially affected multiple groups of Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria, including taxa with known plant growth-promoting activity. Analysis of environmental variables revealed that the separation between irrigated and dryland treatments was due to changes in the water potential (Ψm) and pH. In contrast, the temporal changes in the composition of the rhizosphere microbiome correlated with temperature and precipitation. In summary, our long-term study provides insights into how the availability of water in a semi-arid agroecosystem shapes the belowground wheat microbiome. PMID:29619036

Depression of belowground respiration rates at simulated high moose population densities in boreal forests.

PubMed

Persson, Inga-Lill; Nilsson, Mats B; Pastor, John; Eriksson, Tobias; Bergström, Roger; Danell, Kjell

2009-10-01

Large herbivores can affect the carbon cycle in boreal forests by changing productivity and plant species composition, which in turn could ultimately alter litter production, nutrient cycling, and the partitioning between aboveground and belowground allocation of carbon. Here we experimentally tested how moose (Alces alces) at different simulated population densities affected belowground respiration rates (estimated as CO2 flux) in young boreal forest stands situated along a site productivity gradient. At high simulated population density, moose browsing considerably depressed belowground respiration rates (24-56% below that of no-moose controls) except during June, where the difference only was 10%. Moose browsing depressed belowground respiration the most on low-productivity sites. Soil moisture and temperature did not affect respiration rates. Impact of moose on belowground respiration was closely linked to litter production and followed Michaelis-Menten dynamics. The main mechanism by which moose decrease belowground respiration rates is likely their effect on photosynthetic biomass (especially decreased productivity of deciduous trees) and total litter production. An increased productivity of deciduous trees along the site productivity gradient causes an unequal effect of moose along the same gradient. The rapid growth of deciduous trees may offer higher resilience against negative effects of moose browsing on litter production and photosynthate allocation to roots.

Relations between habitat variability and population dynamics of bass in the Huron River, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bovee, Ken D.; Newcomb, Tammy J.; Coon, Thomas G.

1994-01-01

One of the assumption of the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM) is that the dynamics of fish populations are directly or indirectly related to habitat availability. Because this assumption has not been successfully tested in coolwater streams, questions arise regarding the validity of the methodology in such streams. The purpose of our study was to determine whether relations existed between habitat availability and population dynamics of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) and rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris) in a 16-km reach of the Huron River in southeastern Michigan. Both species exhibited strong to moderate carryover of year classes from age 0 through age 2, indicating that adult populations were related to factors affecting recruitment. Year-class strength and subsequent numbers of yearling bass were related to the availability of young-of-year habitat during the first growing season for a cohort. Number of age-0, age-1, and adult smallmouth bass were related to the average length at age 0 for the cohort. Length at age 0 was associated with young-of-year habitat and thermal regime during the first growing season. Rock bass populations exhibited similar associations among age classes and habitat variables. Compared to smallmouth bass, the number of age-2 rock bass was associated more closely with their length at age 0 than with year-class strength. Length at age 0 and year-class strength of rock bass were associated with the same habitat variables as those related to age-0 smallmouth bass. We hypothesize that an energetic mechanism linked thermal regime to length at age 0 and that increased growth resulted in higher survival rates from age 0 to age 1. We also postulate that young-of-year habitat provided protection from predators, higher production of food resources, and increased foraging efficiency. We conclude that the IFIM is a valid methodology for instream flow investigations of coolwater streams. The results for our study support the contention that the dynamics of bass populations are directly or indirectly related to habitat availability in coolwater streams. Our study also revealed several implications related to the operational application of the IFIM in coolwater streams: 1. Greater emphasis should be placed on the alleviation of habitat impacts to early life history phases of bass. 2. Effects of the thermal regime are important in some coolwater streams even if temperatures remain within nonlethal limits. Degree-day analyses should be routinely included in study plans for applications of the IFIM in coolwater streams. 3. The smallest amount of habitat occurring within or across years is not necessarily the most significant event affecting population dynamics. The timing of extreme events can be as important as their magnitude. 4. Population-related habitat limitations were associated with high flows more often than with low flows (although both occurred). Negotiations that focus only on minimum flows may preclude viable water management options and ignore significant biological events. This finding is particularly relevant to negotiations involving hydrospeaking operations. 5. IFIM users are advised to consider the use of binary criteria in place of conventional suitability index curves in microhabitat simulations. Criteria defining the optimal ranges of variables are preferable to broader rangers, and criteria that simply define suitable conditions should be avoided entirely.

Noise and Epigenetic Inheritance of Single-Cell Division Times Influence Population Fitness.

PubMed

Cerulus, Bram; New, Aaron M; Pougach, Ksenia; Verstrepen, Kevin J

2016-05-09

The fitness effect of biological noise remains unclear. For example, even within clonal microbial populations, individual cells grow at different speeds. Although it is known that the individuals' mean growth speed can affect population-level fitness, it is unclear how or whether growth speed heterogeneity itself is subject to natural selection. Here, we show that noisy single-cell division times can significantly affect population-level growth rate. Using time-lapse microscopy to measure the division times of thousands of individual S. cerevisiae cells across different genetic and environmental backgrounds, we find that the length of individual cells' division times can vary substantially between clonal individuals and that sublineages often show epigenetic inheritance of division times. By combining these experimental measurements with mathematical modeling, we find that, for a given mean division time, increasing heterogeneity and epigenetic inheritance of division times increases the population growth rate. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the heterogeneity and epigenetic inheritance of single-cell division times can be linked with variation in the expression of catabolic genes. Taken together, our results reveal how a change in noisy single-cell behaviors can directly influence fitness through dynamics that operate independently of effects caused by changes to the mean. These results not only allow a better understanding of microbial fitness but also help to more accurately predict fitness in other clonal populations, such as tumors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Four types of interference competition and their impacts on the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations and communities.

PubMed

Zhang, Lai; Andersen, Ken H; Dieckmann, Ulf; Brännström, Åke

2015-09-07

We investigate how four types of interference competition - which alternatively affect foraging, metabolism, survival, and reproduction - impact the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations. Even though all four types of interference competition reduce population biomass, interference competition at intermediate intensity sometimes significantly increases the abundance of adult individuals and the population׳s reproduction rate. We find that foraging and metabolic interference evolutionarily favor smaller maturation size when interference is weak and larger maturation size when interference is strong. The evolutionary response to survival interference and reproductive interference is always larger maturation size. We also investigate how the four types of interference competition impact the evolutionary dynamics and resultant diversity and trophic structure of size-structured communities. Like other types of trait-mediated competition, all four types of interference competition can induce disruptive selection and thus promote initial diversification. Even though foraging interference and reproductive interference are more potent in promoting initial diversification, they catalyze the formation of diverse communities with complex trophic structure only at high levels of interference intensity. By contrast, survival interference does so already at intermediate levels, while reproductive interference can only support relatively smaller communities with simpler trophic structure. Taken together, our results show how the type and intensity of interference competition jointly affect coexistence patterns in structured population models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of climate drivers on colonization and extinction dynamics of wetland-dependent species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Andrew M.; Gould, William R.; Hossack, Blake R.; Sepulveda, Adam; Thoma, David P.; Patla, Debra A.; Daley, Rob; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.

2016-01-01

Freshwater wetlands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, changes in temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (i.e., climate drivers) are likely to alter flooding regimes of wetlands and affect the vital rates, abundance, and distributions of wetland-dependent species. Amphibians may be among the most climate-sensitive wetland-dependent groups, as many species rely on shallow or intermittently flooded wetland habitats for breeding. Here, we integrated multiple years of high-resolution gridded climate and amphibian monitoring data from Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to explicitly model how variations in climate drivers and habitat conditions affect the occurrence and breeding dynamics (i.e., annual extinction and colonization rates) of amphibians. Our results showed that models incorporating climate drivers outperformed models of amphibian breeding dynamics that were exclusively habitat based. Moreover, climate-driven variation in extinction rates, but not colonization rates, disproportionately influenced amphibian occupancy in monitored wetlands. Long-term monitoring from national parks coupled with high-resolution climate data sets will be crucial to describing population dynamics and characterizing the sensitivity of amphibians and other wetland-dependent species to climate change. Further, long-term monitoring of wetlands in national parks will help reduce uncertainty surrounding wetland resources and strengthen opportunities to make informed, science-based decisions that have far-reaching benefits.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Dispersal-mediated effect of microhabitat availability and density dependence determine population dynamics of a forest floor web spider.

PubMed

Takada, Mayura B; Miyashita, Tadashi

2014-09-01

Landscapes in nature can be viewed as a continuum of small total habitable area with high fragmentation to widely spreading habitats. The dispersal-mediated rescue effect predominates in the former landscapes, while classical density-dependent processes generally prevail in widely spread habitats. A similar principle should be applied to populations of organisms utilizing microhabitats in limited supply. To test this hypothesis, we examined the population dynamics of a web spider, Neriene brongersmai, in 16 populations with varying degrees of microhabitat availability, and we explored whether: (i) high microhabitat availability improves survival rate during density-independent movement, while the resultant high density reduces survival rate in a density-dependent manner; and (ii) temporal population stability increases with microhabitat availability at the population level. Furthermore, we conducted two types of field experiments to verify whether high microhabitat availability actually reduces mortality associated with web-site movement. Field observations revealed that demographic change in N. brongersmai populations was affected by three factors at different stages, namely the microhabitat limitation from the early to late juvenile stages, the density dependence from the late juvenile to adult stages and the food limitation from the adult to the next early juvenile stages. In addition, there was a tendency for a positive association between population stability and microhabitat availability at the population level. A small-scale experiment, where the frequency of spider web relocation was equalized artificially, revealed that high microhabitat availability elevated the survival rate during a movement event between web-sites. The larger spatiotemporal scale experiment also revealed an improved spider survival rate following treatment with high microhabitat availability, even though spider density was kept at a relatively low level. The population dynamics of N. brongersmai can be determined primarily by density-independent processes based on web-site fragmentation and density-dependent processes driven by interference competition. We conclude that depending on the amount of habitat resources, the relative importance of the two contrasting paradigms-equilibrium and non-equilibrium-appears to vary, even within a particular system. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Tick-borne infections in human and animal population worldwide

PubMed Central

Brites-Neto, José; Duarte, Keila Maria Roncato; Martins, Thiago Fernandes

2015-01-01

The abundance and activity of ectoparasites and its hosts are affected by various abiotic factors, such as climate and other organisms (predators, pathogens and competitors) presenting thus multiples forms of association (obligate to facultative, permanent to intermittent and superficial to subcutaneous) developed during long co-evolving processes. Ticks are ectoparasites widespread globally and its eco epidemiology are closely related to the environmental conditions. They are obligatory hematophagous ectoparasites and responsible as vectors or reservoirs at the transmission of pathogenic fungi, protozoa, viruses, rickettsia and others bacteria during their feeding process on the hosts. Ticks constitute the second vector group that transmit the major number of pathogens to humans and play a role primary for animals in the process of diseases transmission. Many studies on bioecology of ticks, considering the information related to their population dynamics, to the host and the environment, comes possible the application and efficiency of tick control measures in the prevention programs of vector-borne diseases. In this review were considered some taxonomic, morphological, epidemiological and clinical fundamental aspects related to the tick-borne infections that affect human and animal populations. PMID:27047089

Determinative factors of competitive advantage between aerobic bacteria for niches at the air-liquid interface.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Kyosuke; Haruta, Shin; Kato, Souichiro; Ishii, Masaharu; Igarashi, Yasuo

2010-01-01

We focused on bacterial interspecies relationships at the air-liquid interface where the formation of pellicles by aerobes was observed. Although an obligate aerobe (Brevibacillus sp. M1-5) was initially dominant in the pellicle population, a facultative aerobe (Pseudoxanthomonas sp. M1-3) emerged and the viability of M1-5 rapidly decreased due to severe competition for oxygen. Supplementation of the medium with carbohydrates allowed the two species to coexist at the air-liquid interface. These results indicate that the population dynamics within pellicles are primarily governed by oxygen utilization which was affected by a combination of carbon sources.

Microstructural Modeling of Dynamic Intergranular and Transgranular Fracture Modes in Zircaloys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohammed, I.; Zikry, M.A.; Ziaei, S.

2017-04-01

In this time period, we have continued to focus on (i) refining the thermo-mechanical fracture model for zirconium (Zr) alloys subjected to large deformations and high temperatures that accounts for the cracking of ZrH and ZrH2 hydrides, (ii) formulating a framework to account intergranular fracture due to iodine diffusion and pit formation in grain-boundaries (GBs). Our future objectives are focused on extending to a combined population of ZrH and ZrH2 populations and understanding how thermo-mechanical behavior affects hydride reorientation and cracking. We will also refine the intergranular failure mechanisms for grain boundaries with pits.

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

2012-08-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Estimating In Situ Zooplankton Non-Predation Mortality in an Oligo-Mesotrophic Lake from Sediment Trap Data: Caveats and Reality Check

PubMed Central

Dubovskaya, Olga P.; Tang, Kam W.; Gladyshev, Michail I.; Kirillin, Georgiy; Buseva, Zhanna; Kasprzak, Peter; Tolomeev, Aleksandr P.; Grossart, Hans-Peter

2015-01-01

Background Mortality is a main driver in zooplankton population biology but it is poorly constrained in models that describe zooplankton population dynamics, food web interactions and nutrient dynamics. Mortality due to non-predation factors is often ignored even though anecdotal evidence of non-predation mass mortality of zooplankton has been reported repeatedly. One way to estimate non-predation mortality rate is to measure the removal rate of carcasses, for which sinking is the primary removal mechanism especially in quiescent shallow water bodies. Objectives and Results We used sediment traps to quantify in situ carcass sinking velocity and non-predation mortality rate on eight consecutive days in 2013 for the cladoceran Bosmina longirostris in the oligo-mesotrophic Lake Stechlin; the outcomes were compared against estimates derived from in vitro carcass sinking velocity measurements and an empirical model correcting in vitro sinking velocity for turbulence resuspension and microbial decomposition of carcasses. Our results show that the latter two approaches produced unrealistically high mortality rates of 0.58-1.04 d-1, whereas the sediment trap approach, when used properly, yielded a mortality rate estimate of 0.015 d-1, which is more consistent with concurrent population abundance data and comparable to physiological death rate from the literature. Ecological implications Zooplankton carcasses may be exposed to water column microbes for days before entering the benthos; therefore, non-predation mortality affects not only zooplankton population dynamics but also microbial and benthic food webs. This would be particularly important for carbon and nitrogen cycles in systems where recurring mid-summer decline of zooplankton population due to non-predation mortality is observed. PMID:26146995

Interspecific competition counteracts negative effects of dispersal on adaptation of an arthropod herbivore to a new host.

PubMed

Alzate, A; Bisschop, K; Etienne, R S; Bonte, D

2017-11-01

Dispersal and competition have both been suggested to drive variation in adaptability to a new environment, either positively or negatively. A simultaneous experimental test of both mechanisms is however lacking. Here, we experimentally investigate how population dynamics and local adaptation to a new host plant in a model species, the two-spotted spider mite (Tetranychus urticae), are affected by dispersal from a stock population (no-adapted) and competition with an already adapted spider mite species (Tetranychus evansi). For the population dynamics, we find that competition generally reduces population size and increases the risk of population extinction. However, these negative effects are counteracted by dispersal. For local adaptation, the roles of competition and dispersal are reversed. Without competition, dispersal exerts a negative effect on adaptation (measured as fecundity) to a novel host and females receiving the highest number of immigrants performed similarly to the stock population females. By contrast, with competition, adding more immigrants did not result in a lower fecundity. Females from populations with competition receiving the highest number of immigrants had a significantly higher fecundity than females from populations without competition (same dispersal treatment) and than the stock population females. We suggest that by exerting a stronger selection on the adapting populations, competition can counteract the migration load effect of dispersal. Interestingly, adaptation to the new host does not significantly reduce performance on the ancestral host, regardless of dispersal rate or competition. Our results highlight that assessments of how species can adapt to changing conditions need to jointly consider connectivity and the community context. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons ltd on Behalf of European Society for Evolutionary Biology.

Shortening the HIV-1 TAR RNA Bulge by a Single Nucleotide Preserves Motional Modes over a Broad Range of Time Scales.

PubMed

Merriman, Dawn K; Xue, Yi; Yang, Shan; Kimsey, Isaac J; Shakya, Anisha; Clay, Mary; Al-Hashimi, Hashim M

2016-08-16

Helix-junction-helix (HJH) motifs are flexible building blocks of RNA architecture that help define the orientation and dynamics of helical domains. They are also frequently involved in adaptive recognition of proteins and small molecules and in the formation of tertiary contacts. Here, we use a battery of nuclear magnetic resonance techniques to examine how deleting a single bulge residue (C24) from the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transactivation response element (TAR) trinucleotide bulge (U23-C24-U25) affects dynamics over a broad range of time scales. Shortening the bulge has an effect on picosecond-to-nanosecond interhelical and local bulge dynamics similar to that casued by increasing the Mg(2+) and Na(+) concentration, whereby a preexisting two-state equilibrium in TAR is shifted away from a bent flexible conformation toward a coaxial conformation, in which all three bulge residues are flipped out and flexible. Surprisingly, the point deletion minimally affects microsecond-to-millisecond conformational exchange directed toward two low-populated and short-lived excited conformational states that form through reshuffling of bases pairs throughout TAR. The mutant does, however, adopt a slightly different excited conformational state on the millisecond time scale, in which U23 is intrahelical, mimicking the expected conformation of residue C24 in the excited conformational state of wild-type TAR. Thus, minor changes in HJH topology preserve motional modes in RNA occurring over the picosecond-to-millisecond time scales but alter the relative populations of the sampled states or cause subtle changes in their conformational features.

Potential effects of maternal contribution on egg and larva population dynamics of striped bass: Integrated individual-based model and directed field sampling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cowan, J.H., Jr.; Rose, K.A.

1991-01-01

We have used a bioenergetically-driven, individual-based model (IBM) of striped bass as a framework for synthesizing available information on population biology and quantifying, in a relative sense, factors that potentially affect year class success. The IBM has been configured to simulate environmental conditions experienced by several striped bass populations; i.e., in the Potomac River, MD; in Hudson River, NY; in the Santee-Cooper River System, SC, and; in the San Joaquin-Sacramento River System CA. These sites represent extremes in the geographic distribution and thus, environmental variability of striped bass spawning. At each location, data describing the physio-chemical and biological characteristics ofmore » the spawning population and nursery area are being collected and synthesized by means of a prioritized, directed field sampling program that is organized by the individual-based recruitment model. Here, we employ the striped bass IBM configured for the Potomac River, MD from spawning into the larval period to evaluate the potential for maternal contribution to affect larva survival and growth. Model simulations in which the size distribution and spawning day of females are altered indicate that larva survival is enhanced (3.3-fold increase) when a high fraction of females in the spawning population are large. Larva stage duration also is less ({bar X} = 18.4 d and 22.2 d) when large and small females, respectively, are mothers in simulations. Although inconclusive, these preliminary results for Potomac River striped bass suggest that the effects of female size, timing of spawning nad maternal contribution on recruitment dynamics potentially are important and illustrate our approach to the study of recruitment in striped bass. We hope to use the model, field collections and management alternatives that vary from site to site, in an iterative manner for some time to come. 54 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.« less

Ecotoxicology and spatial modeling in population dynamics: an illustration with brown trout.

PubMed

Chaumot, Arnaud; Charles, Sandrine; Flammarion, Patrick; Auger, Pierre

2003-05-01

We developed a multiregion matrix population model to explore how the demography of a hypothetical brown trout population living in a river network varies in response to different spatial scenarios of cadmium contamination. Age structure, spatial distribution, and demographic and migration processes are taken into account in the model. Chronic or acute cadmium concentrations affect the demographic parameters at the scale of the river range. The outputs of the model constitute population-level end points (the asymptotic population growth rate, the stable age structure, and the asymptotic spatial distribution) that allow comparing the different spatial scenarios of contamination regarding the demographic response at the scale of the whole river network. An analysis of the sensitivity of these end points to lower order parameters enables us to link the local effects of cadmium to the global demographic behavior of the brown trout population. Such a link is of broad interest in the point of view of ecotoxicological management.

Boundary effects on population dynamics in stochastic lattice Lotka-Volterra models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heiba, Bassel; Chen, Sheng; Täuber, Uwe C.

2018-02-01

We investigate spatially inhomogeneous versions of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model for predator-prey competition and coexistence by means of Monte Carlo simulations on a two-dimensional lattice with periodic boundary conditions. To study boundary effects for this paradigmatic population dynamics system, we employ a simulation domain split into two patches: Upon setting the predation rates at two distinct values, one half of the system resides in an absorbing state where only the prey survives, while the other half attains a stable coexistence state wherein both species remain active. At the domain boundary, we observe a marked enhancement of the predator population density. The predator correlation length displays a minimum at the boundary, before reaching its asymptotic constant value deep in the active region. The frequency of the population oscillations appears only very weakly affected by the existence of two distinct domains, in contrast to their attenuation rate, which assumes its largest value there. We also observe that boundary effects become less prominent as the system is successively divided into subdomains in a checkerboard pattern, with two different reaction rates assigned to neighboring patches. When the domain size becomes reduced to the scale of the correlation length, the mean population densities attain values that are very similar to those in a disordered system with randomly assigned reaction rates drawn from a bimodal distribution.

Infection rates and comparative population dynamics of Peregrinus maidis (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) on corn plants with and without symptoms of maize mosaic virus (Rhabdoviridae: Nucleorhabdovirus) infection.

PubMed

Higashi, C H V; Bressan, A

2013-10-01

We examined the population dynamics of the corn planthopper Peregrinus maidis (Ashmead) (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) throughout a cycle of corn (Zea mays L.) production on plants with or without symptoms of maize mosaic virus (MMV) (Rhabdoviridae: Nucleorhabdovirus) infection. Our results indicate that the timing of MMV plant infection greatly influenced the planthopper's host plant colonization patterns. Corn plants that expressed symptoms of MMV infection early in the crop cycle (28 d after planting) harbored, on average, 40 and 48% fewer planthoppers than plants that expressed symptoms of MMV infection later in the crop cycle (49 d after planting) and asymptomatic plants, respectively. We also observed a change in the number of brachypterous (short-wing type) and macropterous (long-wing type) winged forms produced; plants expressing early symptoms of MMV infection harbored, on average, 41 and 47% more of the brachypterous form than plants with late infections of MMV and plants with no symptoms of MMV, respectively. Furthermore, we determined the rates of MMV-infected planthoppers relative to their wing morphology (macropterous or brachypterous) and gender. MMV infection was 5 and 12% higher in females than in males in field and greenhouse experiments, respectively; however, these differences were not significantly different. This research provides evidence that MMV similarly infects P. maidis planthoppers regardless of the gender and wing morphotype. These results also suggest that the timing of symptom development greatly affects the population dynamics of the planthopper vector, and likely has important consequences for the dynamics of the disease in the field.

Spatiotemporal Anopheles Population Dynamics, Response to Climatic Conditions: The Case of Chabahar, South Baluchistan, Iran.

PubMed

Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Halimi, Mansour; Ghavidel, Yousef; Delavari, Mahdi

2015-01-01

An understanding of the factors that affect the abundance of Anopheline species provides an opportunity to better understand the dynamics of malaria transmission in different regions. Chabahar, located south east of Iran, is the most malarious region in the country. The main aim of this study was to quantify the spatiotemporal Anopheles population dynamics, response to climatic conditions in Chabahar. Satellite-based and land-based climatic data were used as explanatory variables. Monthly caught mosquitoes in 6 village sites of Chabahar were used as dependent variable. The spatiotemporal associations were first investigated by inspection of scatter plots and single variable regression analysis. A multivariate linear regression model was developed to reveal the association between environmental variables and the monthly mosquito abundance at a 95% confidence level (P ≤ 0.5). Results indicated that Anopheles mosquitoes can be found all year in Chabahar with 2 significant seasonal peaks from March to June (primary peak) and September to November (secondary peak). Results of the present study showed that 0.77 of yearly mosquito abundance emerges in the thermal range of 24°C to 30°C and the humidity range of 0.70 to 0.80 in Chabahar. According to the developed multivariate linear model, 0.88 of temporal variance of mosquito abundance, nighttime land surface temperature, and relative humidity of 15 Universal Time Coordinated (18.30 Iran) are the main drivers of mosquito population dynamics in Chabahar. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impacts des conditions de glace de mer sur la reproduction des eiders a duvet (Somateria mollissima) nichant dans l'Arctique canadien

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jean-Gagnon, Frankie

Environmental and climatic conditions on the breeding site affect the reproduction and dynamics of avian populations. The arctic sea ice is an essential environmental component to many marine species, and the sea ice dynamic can affect seabird reproduction. Our objective was to study the role of sea ice conditions early in the season on breeding decisions of Common eiders nesting at East Bay in the Canadian Arctic. Since eider females forage intensively at river mouths at East Bay during the pre-breeding period, we made the assumption that the timing of ice-breakup at river mouths influences the breeding propensity and the timing of laying through an effect on resources accessibility. Using radar satellite images acquired for the summers 2002 to 2013, we determined the timing of ice-breakup at river mouths and the ice-free conditions in the bay for each year. The timing of ice-breakup in June varied greatly between years and was strongly correlated to the day of ice-free conditions in the bay in July. Our results also demonstrated that a late ice-breakup induces a decrease in breeding propensity and a delay in the laying date in common eiders. However, females in lower body condition were more strongly affected by a late ice-breakup than females in better condition. These results shed light on the critical importance of the timing of resources accessibility for reproductive decisions and success of avian species breeding in the Arctic. Furthermore, the timing of ice-breakup could be used as an environmental cue by eiders to adjust their timing of breeding. Globally, our study allows us to better understand the mechanisms underlying the effects of sea ice conditions on breeding decisions of marine birds. This work could be useful to anticipate the effect of climate change on population dynamics of birds breeding in the Arctic.

Population structure of Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) is strongly affected by the landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, W.C.; Blouin, M.S.; Corn, P.S.; Maxell, B.A.; Pilliod, D.S.; Amish, S.; Allendorf, F.W.

2005-01-01

Landscape features such as mountains, rivers, and ecological gradients may strongly affect patterns of dispersal and gene flow among populations and thereby shape population dynamics and evolutionary trajectories. The landscape may have a particularly strong effect on patterns of dispersal and gene flow in amphibians because amphibians are thought to have poor dispersal abilities. We examined genetic variation at six microsatellite loci in Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) from 28 breeding ponds in western Montana and Idaho, USA, in order to investigate the effects of landscape structure on patterns of gene flow. We were particularly interested in addressing three questions: (i) do ridges act as barriers to gene flow? (ii) is gene flow restricted between low and high elevation ponds? (iii) does a pond equal a 'randomly mating population' (a deme)? We found that mountain ridges and elevational differences were associated with increased genetic differentiation among sites, suggesting that gene flow is restricted by ridges and elevation in this species. We also found that populations of Columbia spotted frogs generally include more than a single pond except for very isolated ponds. There was also evidence for surprisingly high levels of gene flow among low elevation sites separated by large distances. Moreover, genetic variation within populations was strongly negatively correlated with elevation, suggesting effective population sizes are much smaller at high elevation than at low elevation. Our results show that landscape features have a profound effect on patterns of genetic variation in Columbia spotted frogs.

Population density and phenotypic attributes influence the level of nematode parasitism in roe deer.

PubMed

Body, Guillaume; Ferté, Hubert; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Delorme, Daniel; Klein, François; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle

2011-11-01

The impact of parasites on population dynamics is well documented, but less is known on how host population density affects parasite spread. This relationship is difficult to assess because of confounding effects of social structure, population density, and environmental conditions that lead to biased among-population comparisons. Here, we analyzed the infestation by two groups of nematodes (gastro-intestinal (GI) strongyles and Trichuris) in the roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) population of Trois Fontaines (France) between 1997 and 2007. During this period, we experimentally manipulated population density through changes in removals. Using measures collected on 297 individuals, we quantified the impact of density on parasite spread after taking into account possible influences of date, age, sex, body mass, and weather conditions. The prevalence and abundance of eggs of both parasites in females were positively related to roe deer density, except Trichuris in adult females. We also found a negative relationship between parasitism and body mass, and strong age and sex-dependent patterns of parasitism. Prime-age adults were less often parasitized and had lower fecal egg counts than fawns or old individuals, and males were more heavily and more often infected than females. Trichuris parasites were not affected by weather, whereas GI strongyles were less present after dry and hot summers. In the range of observed densities, the observed effect of density likely involves a variation of the exposure rate, as opposed to variation in host susceptibility.

Population dynamics in changing environments: the case of an eruptive forest pest species.

PubMed

Kausrud, Kyrre; Okland, Bjørn; Skarpaas, Olav; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Erbilgin, Nadir; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2012-02-01

In recent decades we have seen rapid and co-occurring changes in landscape structure, species distributions and even climate as consequences of human activity. Such changes affect the dynamics of the interaction between major forest pest species, such as bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), and their host trees. Normally breeding mostly in broken or severely stressed spruce; at high population densities some bark beetle species can colonise and kill healthy trees on scales ranging from single trees in a stand to multi-annual landscape-wide outbreaks. In Eurasia, the largest outbreaks are caused by the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (Linnaeus), which is common and shares a wide distribution with its main host, Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.). A large literature is now available, from which this review aims to synthesize research relevant for the population dynamics of I. typographus and co-occurring species under changing conditions. We find that spruce bark beetle population dynamics tend to be metastable, but that mixed-species and age-heterogeneous forests with good site-matching tend to be less susceptible to large-scale outbreaks. While large accumulations of logs should be removed and/or debarked before the next swarming period, intensive removal of all coarse dead wood may be counterproductive, as it reduces the diversity of predators that in some areas may play a role in keeping I. typographus populations below the outbreak threshold, and sanitary logging frequently causes edge effects and root damage, reducing the resistance of remaining trees. It is very hard to predict the outcome of interspecific interactions due to invading beetle species or I. typographus establishing outside its current range, as they can be of varying sign and strength and may fluctuate depending on environmental factors and population phase. Most research indicates that beetle outbreaks will increase in frequency and magnitude as temperature, wind speed and precipitation variability increases, and that mitigating forestry practices should be adopted as soon as possible considering the time lags involved. © 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods, data management, and long-term population trends.

PubMed

Ojanen, Sami P; Nieminen, Marko; Meyke, Evgeniy; Pöyry, Juha; Hanski, Ilkka

2013-10-01

Long-term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long-term viability of species, but large-scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long-term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long-term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year-to-year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large-scale and long-term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long-term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long-term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life-history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long-term observational study has stimulated the development of metapopulation models and provided an opportunity to test model predictions. This combination of empirical studies and modeling has facilitated the study of key phenomena in spatial dynamics, such as extinction threshold and extinction debt.

Long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods, data management, and long-term population trends

PubMed Central

Ojanen, Sami P; Nieminen, Marko; Meyke, Evgeniy; Pöyry, Juha; Hanski, Ilkka

2013-01-01

Long-term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long-term viability of species, but large-scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long-term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long-term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year-to-year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large-scale and long-term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long-term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long-term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life-history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long-term observational study has stimulated the development of metapopulation models and provided an opportunity to test model predictions. This combination of empirical studies and modeling has facilitated the study of key phenomena in spatial dynamics, such as extinction threshold and extinction debt. PMID:24198935

Human nutrition, the gut microbiome, and immune system: envisioning the future

PubMed Central

Kau, Andrew L.; Ahern, Philip P.; Griffin, Nicholas W.; Goodman, Andrew L.; Gordon, Jeffrey I.

2012-01-01

Summary Paragraph Dramatic changes in socioeconomic status, cultural traditions, population growth, and agriculture are affecting diets worldwide. Understanding how our diet and nutritional status influence the composition and dynamic operations of our gut microbial communities, and the innate and adaptive arms of our immune system, represents an area of scientific need, opportunity and challenge. The insights gleaned should help address a number of pressing global health problems. PMID:21677749

Human Disturbance Influences Reproductive Success and Growth Rate in California Sea Lions (Zalophus californianus)

PubMed Central

French, Susannah S.; González-Suárez, Manuela; Young, Julie K.; Durham, Susan; Gerber, Leah R.

2011-01-01

The environment is currently undergoing changes at both global (e.g., climate change) and local (e.g., tourism, pollution, habitat modification) scales that have the capacity to affect the viability of animal and plant populations. Many of these changes, such as human disturbance, have an anthropogenic origin and therefore may be mitigated by management action. To do so requires an understanding of the impact of human activities and changing environmental conditions on population dynamics. We investigated the influence of human activity on important life history parameters (reproductive rate, and body condition, and growth rate of neonate pups) for California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Increased human presence was associated with lower reproductive rates, which translated into reduced long-term population growth rates and suggested that human activities are a disturbance that could lead to population declines. We also observed higher body growth rates in pups with increased exposure to humans. Increased growth rates in pups may reflect a density dependent response to declining reproductive rates (e.g., decreased competition for resources). Our results highlight the potentially complex changes in life history parameters that may result from human disturbance, and their implication for population dynamics. We recommend careful monitoring of human activities in the Gulf of California and emphasize the importance of management strategies that explicitly consider the potential impact of human activities such as ecotourism on vertebrate populations. PMID:21436887

Statistical characteristics of dynamics for population migration driven by the economic interests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Zhao, Ning; Hao, Rui

2016-06-01

Population migration typically occurs under some constraints, which can deeply affect the structure of a society and some other related aspects. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the characteristics of population migration. Data from the China Statistical Yearbook indicate that the regional gross domestic product per capita relates to the population size via a linear or power-law relation. In addition, the distribution of population migration sizes or relative migration strength introduced here is dominated by a shifted power-law relation. To reveal the mechanism that creates the aforementioned distributions, a dynamic model is proposed based on the population migration rule that migration is facilitated by higher financial gains and abated by fewer employment opportunities at the destination, considering the migration cost as a function of the migration distance. The calculated results indicate that the distribution of the relative migration strength is governed by a shifted power-law relation, and that the distribution of migration distances is dominated by a truncated power-law relation. These results suggest the use of a power-law to fit a distribution may be not always suitable. Additionally, from the modeling framework, one can infer that it is the randomness and determinacy that jointly create the scaling characteristics of the distributions. The calculation also demonstrates that the network formed by active nodes, representing the immigration and emigration regions, usually evolves from an ordered state with a non-uniform structure to a disordered state with a uniform structure, which is evidenced by the increasing structural entropy.

Invasive lionfish had no measurable effect on prey fish community structure across the Belizean Barrier Reef

PubMed Central

Valdivia, Abel; Cox, Courtney E.; Silbiger, Nyssa J.; Bruno, John F.

2017-01-01

Invasive lionfish are assumed to significantly affect Caribbean reef fish communities. However, evidence of lionfish effects on native reef fishes is based on uncontrolled observational studies or small-scale, unrepresentative experiments, with findings ranging from no effect to large effects on prey density and richness. Moreover, whether lionfish affect populations and communities of native reef fishes at larger, management-relevant scales is unknown. The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of lionfish on coral reef prey fish communities in a natural complex reef system. We quantified lionfish and the density, richness, and composition of native prey fishes (0–10 cm total length) at sixteen reefs along ∼250 km of the Belize Barrier Reef from 2009 to 2013. Lionfish invaded our study sites during this four-year longitudinal study, thus our sampling included fish community structure before and after our sites were invaded, i.e., we employed a modified BACI design. We found no evidence that lionfish measurably affected the density, richness, or composition of prey fishes. It is possible that higher lionfish densities are necessary to detect an effect of lionfish on prey populations at this relatively large spatial scale. Alternatively, negative effects of lionfish on prey could be small, essentially undetectable, and ecologically insignificant at our study sites. Other factors that influence the dynamics of reef fish populations including reef complexity, resource availability, recruitment, predation, and fishing could swamp any effects of lionfish on prey populations. PMID:28560093

Invasive lionfish had no measurable effect on prey fish community structure across the Belizean Barrier Reef.

PubMed

Hackerott, Serena; Valdivia, Abel; Cox, Courtney E; Silbiger, Nyssa J; Bruno, John F

2017-01-01

Invasive lionfish are assumed to significantly affect Caribbean reef fish communities. However, evidence of lionfish effects on native reef fishes is based on uncontrolled observational studies or small-scale, unrepresentative experiments, with findings ranging from no effect to large effects on prey density and richness. Moreover, whether lionfish affect populations and communities of native reef fishes at larger, management-relevant scales is unknown. The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of lionfish on coral reef prey fish communities in a natural complex reef system. We quantified lionfish and the density, richness, and composition of native prey fishes (0-10 cm total length) at sixteen reefs along ∼250 km of the Belize Barrier Reef from 2009 to 2013. Lionfish invaded our study sites during this four-year longitudinal study, thus our sampling included fish community structure before and after our sites were invaded, i.e., we employed a modified BACI design. We found no evidence that lionfish measurably affected the density, richness, or composition of prey fishes. It is possible that higher lionfish densities are necessary to detect an effect of lionfish on prey populations at this relatively large spatial scale. Alternatively, negative effects of lionfish on prey could be small, essentially undetectable, and ecologically insignificant at our study sites. Other factors that influence the dynamics of reef fish populations including reef complexity, resource availability, recruitment, predation, and fishing could swamp any effects of lionfish on prey populations.

Genetic variation in foundation species governs the dynamics of trophic interactions

PubMed Central

Valencia-Cuevas, Leticia; Mussali-Galante, Patricia; Cano-Santana, Zenón; Pujade-Villar, Juli; Equihua-Martínez, Armando

2018-01-01

Abstract Various studies have demonstrated that the foundation species genetic diversity can have direct effects that extend beyond the individual or population level, affecting the dependent communities. Additionally, these effects may be indirectly extended to higher trophic levels throughout the entire community. Quercus castanea is an oak species with characteristics of foundation species beyond presenting a wide geographical distribution and being a dominant element of Mexican temperate forests. In this study, we analyzed the influence of population (He) and individual (HL) genetic diversity of Q. castanea on its canopy endophagous insect community and associated parasitoids. Specifically, we studied the composition, richness (S) and density of leaf-mining moths (Lepidoptera: Tischeridae, Citheraniidae), gall-forming wasps (Hymenoptera: Cynipidae), and canopy parasitoids of Q. castanea. We sampled 120 trees belonging to six populations (20/site) through the previously recognized gradient of genetic diversity. In total, 22 endophagous insect species belonging to three orders (Hymenoptera, Lepidoptera, and Diptera) and 20 parasitoid species belonging to 13 families were identified. In general, we observed that the individual genetic diversity of the host plant (HL) has a significant positive effect on the S and density of the canopy endophagous insect communities. In contrast, He has a significant negative effect on the S of endophagous insects. Additionally, indirect effects of HL were observed, affecting the S and density of parasitoid insects. Our results suggest that genetic variation in foundation species can be one of the most important factors governing the dynamics of tritrophic interactions that involve oaks, herbivores, and parasitoids. PMID:29492034

DNA Repair Gene (XRCC1) Polymorphism (Arg399Gln) Associated with Schizophrenia in South Indian Population: A Genotypic and Molecular Dynamics Study

PubMed Central

Sujitha, S. P.; Kumar, D. Thirumal; Doss, C. George Priya; Aavula, K.; Ramesh, R.; Lakshmanan, S.; Gunasekaran, S.; Anilkumar, G.

2016-01-01

This paper depicts the first report from an Indian population on the association between the variant Arg399Gln of XRCC1 locus in the DNA repair system and schizophrenia, the debilitating disease that affects 1% of the world population. Genotypic analysis of a total of 523 subjects (260 patients and 263 controls) revealed an overwhelming presence of Gln399Gln in the case subjects against the controls (P < 0.0068), indicating significant level of association of this nsSNP with schizophrenia; the Gln399 allele frequency was also perceptibly more in cases than in controls (p < 0.003; OR = 1.448). The results of the genotypic studies were further validated using pathogenicity and stability prediction analysis employing computational tools [I-Mutant Suite, iStable, PolyPhen2, SNAP, and PROVEAN], with a view toassess the magnitude of deleteriousness of the mutation. The pathogenicity analysis reveals that the nsSNP could be deleterious inasmuch as it could affect the functionality of the gene, and interfere with protein function. Molecular dynamics simulation of 60ns was performed using GROMACS to analyse structural change due to a mutation (Arg399Gln) that was never examined before. RMSD, RMSF, hydrogen bonds, radius of gyration and SASA analysis showedthe existence of asignificant difference between the native and the mutant protein. The present study gives astrong indication that the XRCC1 locus deserves serious attention, as it could be a potential candidatecontributing to the etio-pathogenesis of the disease. PMID:26824244

DNA Repair Gene (XRCC1) Polymorphism (Arg399Gln) Associated with Schizophrenia in South Indian Population: A Genotypic and Molecular Dynamics Study.

PubMed

Sujitha, S P; Kumar, D Thirumal; Doss, C George Priya; Aavula, K; Ramesh, R; Lakshmanan, S; Gunasekaran, S; Anilkumar, G

2016-01-01

This paper depicts the first report from an Indian population on the association between the variant Arg399Gln of XRCC1 locus in the DNA repair system and schizophrenia, the debilitating disease that affects 1% of the world population. Genotypic analysis of a total of 523 subjects (260 patients and 263 controls) revealed an overwhelming presence of Gln399Gln in the case subjects against the controls (P < 0.0068), indicating significant level of association of this nsSNP with schizophrenia; the Gln399 allele frequency was also perceptibly more in cases than in controls (p < 0.003; OR = 1.448). The results of the genotypic studies were further validated using pathogenicity and stability prediction analysis employing computational tools [I-Mutant Suite, iStable, PolyPhen2, SNAP, and PROVEAN], with a view toassess the magnitude of deleteriousness of the mutation. The pathogenicity analysis reveals that the nsSNP could be deleterious inasmuch as it could affect the functionality of the gene, and interfere with protein function. Molecular dynamics simulation of 60ns was performed using GROMACS to analyse structural change due to a mutation (Arg399Gln) that was never examined before. RMSD, RMSF, hydrogen bonds, radius of gyration and SASA analysis showedthe existence of asignificant difference between the native and the mutant protein. The present study gives astrong indication that the XRCC1 locus deserves serious attention, as it could be a potential candidatecontributing to the etio-pathogenesis of the disease.

Ancient DNA analyses exclude humans as the driving force behind late Pleistocene musk ox (Ovibos moschatus) population dynamics

PubMed Central

Campos, Paula F.; Willerslev, Eske; Sher, Andrei; Orlando, Ludovic; Axelsson, Erik; Tikhonov, Alexei; Aaris-Sørensen, Kim; Greenwood, Alex D.; Kahlke, Ralf-Dietrich; Kosintsev, Pavel; Krakhmalnaya, Tatiana; Kuznetsova, Tatyana; Lemey, Philippe; MacPhee, Ross; Norris, Christopher A.; Shepherd, Kieran; Suchard, Marc A.; Zazula, Grant D.; Shapiro, Beth; Gilbert, M. Thomas P.

2010-01-01

The causes of the late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions are poorly understood. Different lines of evidence point to climate change, the arrival of humans, or a combination of these events as the trigger. Although many species went extinct, others, such as caribou and bison, survived to the present. The musk ox has an intermediate story: relatively abundant during the Pleistocene, it is now restricted to Greenland and the Arctic Archipelago. In this study, we use ancient DNA sequences, temporally unbiased summary statistics, and Bayesian analytical techniques to infer musk ox population dynamics throughout the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Our results reveal that musk ox genetic diversity was much higher during the Pleistocene than at present, and has undergone several expansions and contractions over the past 60,000 years. Northeast Siberia was of key importance, as it was the geographic origin of all samples studied and held a large diverse population until local extinction at ≈45,000 radiocarbon years before present (14C YBP). Subsequently, musk ox genetic diversity reincreased at ca. 30,000 14C YBP, recontracted at ca. 18,000 14C YBP, and finally recovered in the middle Holocene. The arrival of humans into relevant areas of the musk ox range did not affect their mitochondrial diversity, and both musk ox and humans expanded into Greenland concomitantly. Thus, their population dynamics are better explained by a nonanthropogenic cause (for example, environmental change), a hypothesis supported by historic observations on the sensitivity of the species to both climatic warming and fluctuations. PMID:20212118

Hydrologic Variability Governs Population Dynamics of a Vulnerable Amphibian in an Arid Environment

PubMed Central

Zylstra, Erin R.; Steidl, Robert J.; Swann, Don E.; Ratzlaff, Kristina

2015-01-01

Dynamics of many amphibian populations are governed by the distribution and availability of water. Therefore, understanding the hydrological mechanisms that explain spatial and temporal variation in occupancy and abundance will improve our ability to conserve and recover populations of vulnerable amphibians. We used 16 years of survey data from intermittent mountain streams in the Sonoran Desert to evaluate how availability of surface water affected survival and adult recruitment of a threatened amphibian, the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis). Across the entire study period, monthly survival of adults ranged from 0.72 to 0.99 during summer and 0.59 to 0.94 during winter and increased with availability of surface water (Z = 7.66; P < 0.01). Recruitment of frogs into the adult age class occurred primarily during winter and ranged from 1.9 to 3.8 individuals/season/pool; like survival, recruitment increased with availability of surface water (Z = 3.67; P < 0.01). Although abundance of frogs varied across seasons and years, we found no evidence of a systematic trend during the 16-year study period. Given the strong influence of surface water on population dynamics of leopard frogs, conservation of many riparian obligates in this and similar arid regions likely depends critically on minimizing threats to structures and ecosystem processes that maintain surface waters. Understanding the influence of surface-water availability on riparian organisms is particularly important because climate change is likely to decrease precipitation and increase ambient temperatures in desert riparian systems, both of which have the potential to alter fundamentally the hydrology of these systems. PMID:26030825

Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data

PubMed Central

Geremia, Chris; Miller, Michael W.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Antolin, Michael F.; Hobbs, N. Thompson

2015-01-01

Epidemics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) of North American Cervidae have potential to harm ecosystems and economies. We studied a migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) affected by CWD for at least three decades using a Bayesian framework to integrate matrix population and disease models with long-term monitoring data and detailed process-level studies. We hypothesized CWD prevalence would be stable or increase between two observation periods during the late 1990s and after 2010, with higher CWD prevalence making deer population decline more likely. The weight of evidence suggested a reduction in the CWD outbreak over time, perhaps in response to intervening harvest-mediated population reductions. Disease effects on deer population growth under current conditions were subtle with a 72% chance that CWD depressed population growth. With CWD, we forecasted a growth rate near one and largely stable deer population. Disease effects appear to be moderated by timing of infection, prolonged disease course, and locally variable infection. Long-term outcomes will depend heavily on whether current conditions hold and high prevalence remains a localized phenomenon. PMID:26509806

Optimal exploitation of spatially distributed trophic resources and population stability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Basset, A.; Fedele, M.; DeAngelis, D.L.

2002-01-01

The relationships between optimal foraging of individuals and population stability are addressed by testing, with a spatially explicit model, the effect of patch departure behaviour on individual energetics and population stability. A factorial experimental design was used to analyse the relevance of the behavioural factor in relation to three factors that are known to affect individual energetics; i.e. resource growth rate (RGR), assimilation efficiency (AE), and body size of individuals. The factorial combination of these factors produced 432 cases, and 1000 replicate simulations were run for each case. Net energy intake rates of the modelled consumers increased with increasing RGR, consumer AE, and consumer body size, as expected. Moreover, through their patch departure behaviour, by selecting the resource level at which they departed from the patch, individuals managed to substantially increase their net energy intake rates. Population stability was also affected by the behavioural factors and by the other factors, but with highly non-linear responses. Whenever resources were limiting for the consumers because of low RGR, large individual body size or low AE, population density at the equilibrium was directly related to the patch departure behaviour; on the other hand, optimal patch departure behaviour, which maximised the net energy intake at the individual level, had a negative influence on population stability whenever resource availability was high for the consumers. The consumer growth rate (r) and numerical dynamics, as well as the spatial and temporal fluctuations of resource density, which were the proximate causes of population stability or instability, were affected by the behavioural factor as strongly or even more strongly than by the others factors considered here. Therefore, patch departure behaviour can act as a feedback control of individual energetics, allowing consumers to optimise a potential trade-off between short-term individual fitness and long-term population stability. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of flow and peristaltic mixing on bacterial growth in a gut-like channel

PubMed Central

Cremer, Jonas; Segota, Igor; Yang, Chih-yu; Arnoldini, Markus; Sauls, John T.; Zhang, Zhongge; Gutierrez, Edgar; Groisman, Alex; Hwa, Terence

2016-01-01

The ecology of microbes in the gut has been shown to play important roles in the health of the host. To better understand microbial growth and population dynamics in the proximal colon, the primary region of bacterial growth in the gut, we built and applied a fluidic channel that we call the “minigut.” This is a channel with an array of membrane valves along its length, which allows mimicking active contractions of the colonic wall. Repeated contraction is shown to be crucial in maintaining a steady-state bacterial population in the device despite strong flow along the channel that would otherwise cause bacterial washout. Depending on the flow rate and the frequency of contractions, the bacterial density profile exhibits varying spatial dependencies. For a synthetic cross-feeding community, the species abundance ratio is also strongly affected by mixing and flow along the length of the device. Complex mixing dynamics due to contractions is described well by an effective diffusion term. Bacterial dynamics is captured by a simple reaction–diffusion model without adjustable parameters. Our results suggest that flow and mixing play a major role in shaping the microbiota of the colon. PMID:27681630

Dynamic population flow based risk analysis of infectious disease propagation in a metropolis.

PubMed

Zhang, Nan; Huang, Hong; Duarte, Marlyn; Zhang, Junfeng Jim

2016-09-01

Knowledge on the characteristics of infectious disease propagation in metropolises plays a critical role in guiding public health intervention strategies to reduce death tolls, disease incidence, and possible economic losses. Based on the SIR model, we established a comprehensive spatiotemporal risk assessment model to compute infectious disease propagation within an urban setting using Beijing, China as a case study. The model was developed for a dynamic population distribution using actual data on location, density of residences and offices, and means of public transportation (e.g., subways, buses and taxis). We evaluated four influencing factors including biological, behavioral, environmental parameters and infectious sources. The model output resulted in a set of maps showing how the four influencing factors affected the trend and characteristics of airborne infectious disease propagation in Beijing. We compared the scenarios for the long-term dynamic propagation of infectious disease without governmental interventions versus scenarios with government intervention and hospital coordinated emergency responses. Lastly, the sensitivity of the average number of people at different location in spreading infections is analyzed. Based on our results, we provide valuable recommendations to governmental agencies and the public in order to minimize the disease propagation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of four animal species in a Danish landscape

PubMed Central

Sibly, Richard M; Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Forchhammer, Mads C; Forbes, Valery E; Topping, Christopher J

2009-01-01

Background Variation in carrying capacity and population return rates is generally ignored in traditional studies of population dynamics. Variation is hard to study in the field because of difficulties controlling the environment in order to obtain statistical replicates, and because of the scale and expense of experimenting on populations. There may also be ethical issues. To circumvent these problems we used detailed simulations of the simultaneous behaviours of interacting animals in an accurate facsimile of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of skylarks Alauda arvensis, voles Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify and evaluate the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of the four species. Results Both spatial and temporal heterogeneity affected the relationship between population growth rate and population density in all four species. Spatial heterogeneity accounted for 23–30% of the variance in population growth rate after accounting for the effects of density, reflecting big differences in local carrying capacity associated with the landscape features important to individual species. Temporal heterogeneity accounted for 3–13% of the variance in vole, skylark and spider, but 43% in beetles. The associated temporal variation in carrying capacity would be problematic in traditional analyses of density dependence. Return rates were less than one in all species and essentially invariant in skylarks, spiders and beetles. Return rates varied over the landscape in voles, being slower where there were larger fluctuations in local population sizes. Conclusion Our analyses estimated the traditional parameters of carrying capacities and return rates, but these are now seen as varying continuously over the landscape depending on habitat quality and the mechanisms of density dependence. The importance of our results lies in our demonstration that the effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity must be accounted for if we are to have accurate predictive models for use in management and conservation. This is an area which until now has lacked an adequate theoretical framework and methodology. PMID:19549327

Spatial variation in water loss predicts terrestrial salamander distribution and population dynamics.

PubMed

Peterman, W E; Semlitsch, R D

2014-10-01

Many patterns observed in ecology, such as species richness, life history variation, habitat use, and distribution, have physiological underpinnings. For many ectothermic organisms, temperature relationships shape these patterns, but for terrestrial amphibians, water balance may supersede temperature as the most critical physiologically limiting factor. Many amphibian species have little resistance to water loss, which restricts them to moist microhabitats, and may significantly affect foraging, dispersal, and courtship. Using plaster models as surrogates for terrestrial plethodontid salamanders (Plethodon albagula), we measured water loss under ecologically relevant field conditions to estimate the duration of surface activity time across the landscape. Surface activity time was significantly affected by topography, solar exposure, canopy cover, maximum air temperature, and time since rain. Spatially, surface activity times were highest in ravine habitats and lowest on ridges. Surface activity time was a significant predictor of salamander abundance, as well as a predictor of successful recruitment; the probability of a juvenile salamander occupying an area with high surface activity time was two times greater than an area with limited predicted surface activity. Our results suggest that survival, recruitment, or both are demographic processes that are affected by water loss and the ability of salamanders to be surface-active. Results from our study extend our understanding of plethodontid salamander ecology, emphasize the limitations imposed by their unique physiology, and highlight the importance of water loss to spatial population dynamics. These findings are timely for understanding the effects that fluctuating temperature and moisture conditions predicted for future climates will have on plethodontid salamanders.

Population viability analysis: using a modeling tool to assess the viability of tapir populations in fragmented landscapes.

PubMed

Medici, Emília Patrícia; Desbiez, Arnaud Leonard Jean

2012-12-01

A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region, Brazil, including Morro do Diabo State Park (MDSP) and surrounding forest fragments. Results from the model projected that the population of 126 tapirs in MDSP is likely to persist over the next 100 years; however, 200 tapirs would be required to maintain a viable population. Sensitivity analysis showed that sub-adult mortality and adult mortality have the strongest influence on the dynamics of lowland tapir populations. High road-kill has a major impact on the MDSP tapir population and can lead to population extinction. Metapopulation modeling showed that dispersal of tapirs from MDSP to the surrounding fragments can be detrimental to the overall metapopulation, as fragments act as sinks. Nevertheless, the model showed that under certain conditions the maintenance of the metapopulation dynamics might be determinant for the persistence of tapirs in the region, particularly in the smaller fragments. The establishment of corridors connecting MDSP to the forest fragments models resulted in an increase in the stochastic growth rate, making tapirs more resilient to threats and catastrophes, but only if rates of mortality were not increased when using corridors. The PVA showed that the conservation of tapirs in the Pontal region depends on: the effective protection of MDSP; maintenance and, whenever possible, enhancement of the functional connectivity of the landscape, reducing mortality during dispersal and threats in the unprotected forest fragments; and neutralization of all threats affecting tapirs in the smaller forest fragments. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.