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Sample records for affective forecasting task

  1. Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giebel, G.; Cline, J.; Frank, H.; Shaw, W.; Pinson, P.; Hodge, B.-M.; Kariniotakis, G.; Madsen, J.; Möhrlen, C.

    2016-09-01

    This paper presents the new International Energy Agency Wind Task 36 on Forecasting, and invites to collaborate within the group. Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Forecasting for Wind Energy tries to organise international collaboration, among national meteorological centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, MetOffice, met.no, DMI,...), operational forecaster and forecast users. The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions. As first results, an overview of current issues for research in short-term forecasting of wind power is presented.

  2. Affective forecasting and the Big Five

    PubMed Central

    Hoerger, Michael; Quirk, Stuart W.

    2011-01-01

    Recent studies on affective forecasting clarify that the emotional reactions people anticipate often differ markedly from those they actually experience in response to affective stimuli and events. However, core personality differences in affective forecasting have received limited attention, despite their potential relevance to choice behavior. In the present study, 226 college undergraduates rated their anticipated and experienced reactions to the emotionally-evocative event of Valentine’s Day and completed a measure of the Big Five personality traits – neuroticism, extraversion, openness to experience, agreeableness, and conscientiousness – and their facet scales. Neuroticism and extraversion were associated with baseline mood, experienced emotional reactions, and anticipated emotional reactions. The present findings hold implications for the study of individual differences in affective forecasting, personality theory, and interventions research. PMID:22021944

  3. Emotional intelligence: a theoretical framework for individual differences in affective forecasting.

    PubMed

    Hoerger, Michael; Chapman, Benjamin P; Epstein, Ronald M; Duberstein, Paul R

    2012-08-01

    Only recently have researchers begun to examine individual differences in affective forecasting. The present investigation was designed to make a theoretical contribution to this emerging literature by examining the role of emotional intelligence in affective forecasting. Emotional intelligence was hypothesized to be associated with affective forecasting accuracy, memory for emotional reactions, and subsequent improvement on an affective forecasting task involving emotionally evocative pictures. Results from two studies (N = 511) supported our hypotheses. Emotional intelligence was associated with accuracy in predicting, encoding, and consolidating emotional reactions. Furthermore, emotional intelligence was associated with greater improvement on a second affective forecasting task, with the relationship explained by basic memory processes. Implications for future research on basic and applied decision making are discussed.

  4. Emotional task management: neural correlates of switching between affective and non-affective task-sets

    PubMed Central

    Reeck, Crystal

    2015-01-01

    Although task-switching has been investigated extensively, its interaction with emotionally salient task content remains unclear. Prioritized processing of affective stimulus content may enhance accessibility of affective task-sets and generate increased interference when switching between affective and non-affective task-sets. Previous research has demonstrated that more dominant task-sets experience greater switch costs, as they necessitate active inhibition during performance of less entrenched tasks. Extending this logic to the affective domain, the present experiment examined (a) whether affective task-sets are more dominant than non-affective ones, and (b) what neural mechanisms regulate affective task-sets, so that weaker, non-affective task-sets can be executed. While undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging, participants categorized face stimuli according to either their gender (non-affective task) or their emotional expression (affective task). Behavioral results were consistent with the affective task dominance hypothesis: participants were slower to switch to the affective task, and cross-task interference was strongest when participants tried to switch from the affective to the non-affective task. These behavioral costs of controlling the affective task-set were mirrored in the activation of a right-lateralized frontostriatal network previously implicated in task-set updating and response inhibition. Connectivity between amygdala and right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex was especially pronounced during cross-task interference from affective features. PMID:25552571

  5. Errors in Moral Forecasting: Perceptions of Affect Shape the Gap Between Moral Behaviors and Moral Forecasts.

    PubMed

    Teper, Rimma; Tullett, Alexa M; Page-Gould, Elizabeth; Inzlicht, Michael

    2015-07-01

    Research in moral decision making has shown that there may not be a one-to-one relationship between peoples' moral forecasts and behaviors. Although past work suggests that physiological arousal may account for part of the behavior-forecasting discrepancy, whether or not perceptions of affect play an important determinant remains unclear. Here, we investigate whether this discrepancy may arise because people fail to anticipate how they will feel in morally significant situations. In Study 1, forecasters predicted cheating significantly more on a test than participants in a behavior condition actually cheated. Importantly, forecasters who received false somatic feedback, indicative of high arousal, produced forecasts that aligned more closely with behaviors. In Study 2, forecasters who misattributed their arousal to an extraneous source forecasted cheating significantly more. In Study 3, higher dispositional emotional awareness was related to less forecasted cheating. These findings suggest that perceptions of affect play a key role in the behavior-forecasting dissociation.

  6. Before escalation: behavioral and affective forecasting in escalation of commitment.

    PubMed

    Ku, Gillian

    2008-11-01

    This research examines preinvestment forecasting processes in escalation of commitment, considering two questions: whether individuals are able to accurately predict their behavior and affect in escalation situations and how forecasting processes may be linked to actual escalation. Three experiments demonstrated that individuals underpredicted their escalation and overpredicted their postescalation regret. Two of the experiments also indicated that the less individuals predicted being entrapped, the more they escalated. Counter to expectations, anticipated regret did not predict escalation. The discussion focuses on the theoretical and practical importance of forecasting on escalation and on the importance of understanding both behavioral and affective forecasting effects simultaneously.

  7. More intense experiences, less intense forecasts: why people overweight probability specifications in affective forecasts.

    PubMed

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K; Vosgerau, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6).

  8. More intense experiences, less intense forecasts: why people overweight probability specifications in affective forecasts.

    PubMed

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K; Vosgerau, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6). PMID:24128184

  9. Accuracy and artifact: reexamining the intensity bias in affective forecasting.

    PubMed

    Levine, Linda J; Lench, Heather C; Kaplan, Robin L; Safer, Martin A

    2012-10-01

    Research on affective forecasting shows that people have a robust tendency to overestimate the intensity of future emotion. We hypothesized that (a) people can accurately predict the intensity of their feelings about events and (b) a procedural artifact contributes to people's tendency to overestimate the intensity of their feelings in general. People may misinterpret the forecasting question as asking how they will feel about a focal event, but they are later asked to report their feelings in general without reference to that event. In the current investigation, participants predicted and reported both their feelings in general and their feelings about an election outcome (Study 1) and an exam grade (Study 3). We also assessed how participants interpreted forecasting questions (Studies 2 and 4) and conducted a meta-analysis of affective forecasting research (Study 5). The results showed that participants accurately predicted the intensity of their feelings about events. They overestimated only when asked to predict how they would feel in general and later report their feelings without reference to the focal event. Most participants, however, misinterpreted requests to predict their feelings in general as asking how they would feel when they were thinking about the focal event. Clarifying the meaning of the forecasting question significantly reduced overestimation. These findings reveal that people have more sophisticated self-knowledge than is commonly portrayed in the affective forecasting literature. Overestimation of future emotion is partly due to a procedure in which people predict one thing but are later asked to report another.

  10. The use of uncertainty forecasts in complex decision tasks and various weather conditions.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; Grounds, Margaret A

    2015-12-01

    Recent research on weather-related decision-making suggests that the inclusion of numeric uncertainty estimates in weather forecasts improves decision quality over single value forecasts or specific advice. However, it is unclear if the benefit of uncertainty estimates extends to more complex decision tasks, presumably requiring greater cognitive effort, or to tasks in which the decision is clear-cut, perhaps making the additional uncertainty information unnecessary. In the present research, participants completed a task in which they used single value weather forecasts, either alone, with freeze probabilities, advice, or both, to decide whether to apply salt to roads in winter to prevent icing or to withhold salt and risk a penalty. Participants completed either a simple binary choice version of the task or a complex version with 3 response options and accompanying rules for application. Some participants were shown forecasts near the freezing point, such that the need for salt was ambiguous, whereas other participants were shown forecasts well below the freezing point. Results suggest that participants with uncertainty estimates did better overall, and neither the task complexity nor the coldness of the forecasts reduced that advantage. However, unexpectedly colder forecasts lead to poorer decisions and an advantage for specific advice. PMID:26479974

  11. The use of uncertainty forecasts in complex decision tasks and various weather conditions.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; Grounds, Margaret A

    2015-12-01

    Recent research on weather-related decision-making suggests that the inclusion of numeric uncertainty estimates in weather forecasts improves decision quality over single value forecasts or specific advice. However, it is unclear if the benefit of uncertainty estimates extends to more complex decision tasks, presumably requiring greater cognitive effort, or to tasks in which the decision is clear-cut, perhaps making the additional uncertainty information unnecessary. In the present research, participants completed a task in which they used single value weather forecasts, either alone, with freeze probabilities, advice, or both, to decide whether to apply salt to roads in winter to prevent icing or to withhold salt and risk a penalty. Participants completed either a simple binary choice version of the task or a complex version with 3 response options and accompanying rules for application. Some participants were shown forecasts near the freezing point, such that the need for salt was ambiguous, whereas other participants were shown forecasts well below the freezing point. Results suggest that participants with uncertainty estimates did better overall, and neither the task complexity nor the coldness of the forecasts reduced that advantage. However, unexpectedly colder forecasts lead to poorer decisions and an advantage for specific advice.

  12. Affective Forecasting: An Unrecognized Challenge in Making Serious Health Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Arnold, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    Patients facing medical decisions that will impact quality of life make assumptions about how they will adjust emotionally to living with health declines and disability. Despite abundant research on decision-making, we have no direct research on how accurately patients envision their future well-being and how this influences their decisions. Outside medicine, psychological research on “affective forecasting” consistently shows that people poorly predict their future ability to adapt to adversity. This finding is important for medicine, since many serious health decisions hinge on quality-of-life judgments. We describe three specific mechanisms for affective forecasting errors that may influence health decisions: focalism, in which people focus more on what will change than on what will stay the same; immune neglect, in which they fail to envision how their own coping skills will lessen their unhappiness; and failure to predict adaptation, in which people fail to envision shifts in what they value. We discuss emotional and social factors that interact with these cognitive biases. We describe how caregivers can recognize these biases in the clinical setting and suggest interventions to help patients recognize and address affective forecasting errors. PMID:18665428

  13. Task usefulness affects perception of rivalrous images.

    PubMed

    Chopin, Adrien; Mamassian, Pascal

    2010-12-01

    In bistable perception, several interpretations of the same physical stimulus are perceived in alternation. If one interpretation appears to help the observer to be successful in an auxiliary task, will that interpretation be seen more often than the other? We addressed this question using rivalrous stimuli. One of the elicited percepts presented an advantage for a separate visual search task that was run in close temporal proximity to the rivalry task. We found that the percept that was useful for the search task became dominant over the alternate percept. Observers were not aware of the manipulation that made one percept more useful, which suggests that usefulness was learned implicitly. The learning influenced only the first percept of each rivalrous presentation, but the bias persisted even when the useful percept was no longer useful. The long-lasting aspect of the effect distinguishes it from other documented attentional effects on bistable perception. Therefore, using implicit learning, we demonstrated that task usefulness can durably change the appearance of a stimulus.

  14. Affective forecasting and self-rated symptoms of depression, anxiety, and hypomania: evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias.

    PubMed

    Hoerger, Michael; Quirk, Stuart W; Chapman, Benjamin P; Duberstein, Paul R

    2012-01-01

    Emerging research has examined individual differences in affective forecasting; however, we are aware of no published study to date linking psychopathology symptoms to affective forecasting problems. Pitting cognitive theory against depressive realism theory, we examined whether dysphoria was associated with negatively biased affective forecasts or greater accuracy. Participants (n=325) supplied predicted and actual emotional reactions for three days surrounding an emotionally evocative relational event, Valentine's Day. Predictions were made a month prior to the holiday. Consistent with cognitive theory, we found evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias-the tendency of individuals in dysphoric states to overpredict negative emotional reactions to future events. The dysphoric forecasting bias was robust across ratings of positive and negative affect, forecasts for pleasant and unpleasant scenarios, continuous and categorical operationalisations of dysphoria, and three time points of observation. Similar biases were not observed in analyses examining the independent effects of anxiety and hypomania. Findings provide empirical evidence for the long-assumed influence of depressive symptoms on future expectations. The present investigation has implications for affective forecasting studies examining information-processing constructs, decision making, and broader domains of psychopathology.

  15. Comparison versus Contrast: Task Specifics Affect Category Acquisition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ankowski, Amber A.; Vlach, Haley A.; Sandhofer, Catherine M.

    2013-01-01

    A large literature has documented that comparison and contrast lead to better performance in a variety of tasks. However, studies of comparison and contrast present contradictory conclusions as to when and how these processes benefit learners. Across four studies, we examined how the specifics of the comparison and contrast task affect performance…

  16. Affective biasing of choices in gambling task decision making.

    PubMed

    Hinson, John M; Whitney, Paul; Holben, Heather; Wirick, Aaron K

    2006-09-01

    The proponents of the somatic marker hypothesis presume that rational decision making is guided by emotional reactions that are developed from prior experience. Supporting evidence for the hypothesis comes almost exclusively from the short-term affective reactions that are learned during the course of a hypothetical decision-making task--the gambling task (GT). We examined GT performance and affective reactions to choices when those choices were biased by words that had preexisting affective value. In one experiment, affectively valued words directly signaled good and bad choices. A congruent relation between affective value of word and choice outcome improved GT performance, whereas an incongruent relation greatly interfered with performance. In another experiment, affectively valued words were maintained as a working memory (WM) load between GT choices. A WM load with affectively positive words somewhat improved GT performance, whereas affectively negative words interfered with performance. Somatic markers-indicated by differential anticipatory skin conductance response (SCR) amplitude for good and bad choices-appeared at a point in the GT session when choice performance was superior. However, differential SCR developed during the session after good choice performance was already established. These results indicate that preexisting affective biases can influence GT decision making. In addition, the somatic markers that are regular accompaniments of GT decision making appeared to be temporally lagging indicators of choice performance. PMID:17243355

  17. Affective biasing of choices in gambling task decision making.

    PubMed

    Hinson, John M; Whitney, Paul; Holben, Heather; Wirick, Aaron K

    2006-09-01

    The proponents of the somatic marker hypothesis presume that rational decision making is guided by emotional reactions that are developed from prior experience. Supporting evidence for the hypothesis comes almost exclusively from the short-term affective reactions that are learned during the course of a hypothetical decision-making task--the gambling task (GT). We examined GT performance and affective reactions to choices when those choices were biased by words that had preexisting affective value. In one experiment, affectively valued words directly signaled good and bad choices. A congruent relation between affective value of word and choice outcome improved GT performance, whereas an incongruent relation greatly interfered with performance. In another experiment, affectively valued words were maintained as a working memory (WM) load between GT choices. A WM load with affectively positive words somewhat improved GT performance, whereas affectively negative words interfered with performance. Somatic markers-indicated by differential anticipatory skin conductance response (SCR) amplitude for good and bad choices-appeared at a point in the GT session when choice performance was superior. However, differential SCR developed during the session after good choice performance was already established. These results indicate that preexisting affective biases can influence GT decision making. In addition, the somatic markers that are regular accompaniments of GT decision making appeared to be temporally lagging indicators of choice performance.

  18. State-of-the-art Space Weather Forecast with AFFECTS and HELCATS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothmer, Volker; Affects Team; Helcats Team

    2016-04-01

    The space weather projects fostered through the European Union FP7 and Horizon 2020 programs have opened up new horizons in the field of space weather research and have facilitated state-of-the-art-forecasts. Here we present an overview on the services and space weather forecasts the EU FP7 project AFFECTS (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space) is providing and how the precision of the forecast is qualitatively greatly enhanced by new results derived from the EU FP7 project HELCATS (Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis, and Techniques Services). The forecast techniques base on near-real time multipoint analysis of coronal mass ejections observed by SOHO and STEREO and simulations of their Sun to Earth evolution.

  19. Age differences in affective forecasting and experienced emotion surrounding the 2008 U.S. presidential election

    PubMed Central

    Scheibe, Susanne; Mata, Rui; Carstensen, Laura L.

    2012-01-01

    In everyday life, people frequently make decisions based on tacit or explicit forecasts about the emotional consequences associated with the possible choices. We investigated age differences in such forecasts and their accuracy by surveying voters about their expected and, subsequently, their actual emotional responses to the 2008 U.S. presidential election. A sample of 762 Democratic and Republican voters aged 20 to 80 years participated in a web-based study; 346 could be re-contacted two days after the election. Older adults forecasted lower increases in high-arousal emotions (e.g., excitement after winning; anger after losing) and larger increases in low-arousal emotions (e.g., sluggishness after losing) than younger adults. Age differences in actual responses to the election were consistent with forecasts, albeit less pervasive. Additionally, among supporters of the winning candidate, but not among supporters of the losing candidate, forecasting accuracy was enhanced with age, suggesting a positivity effect in affective forecasting. These results add to emerging findings about the role of valence and arousal in emotional aging and demonstrate age differences in affective forecasting about a real-world event with an emotionally-charged outcome. PMID:21547760

  20. Assessing Affect after Mathematical Problem Solving Tasks: Validating the Chamberlin Affective Instrument for Mathematical Problem Solving

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chamberlin, Scott A.; Powers, Robert A.

    2013-01-01

    The focus of the article is the validation of an instrument to assess gifted students' affect after mathematical problem solving tasks. Participants were 225 students identified by their district as gifted in grades four to six. The Chamberlin Affective Instrument for Mathematical Problem Solving was used to assess feelings, emotions, and…

  1. Oculomotor tasks affect differently postural control in healthy children.

    PubMed

    Bucci, Maria Pia; Ajrezo, Layla; Wiener-Vacher, Sylvette

    2015-11-01

    Eye movements affect postural stability in children. The present study focuses on the effect of different types of eye movements on postural stability in healthy children. Both eye movements and postural stability have been recorded in 51 healthy children from 6.3 to 15.5 years old. Eye movements were recorded binocularly with a video oculography (MobilEBT(®)), and postural stability was measured while child was standing on a force platform (TechnoConcept(®)). Children performed three oculomotor tasks: saccades, pursuits and reading a text silently. We measured the number of saccades made in the three oculomotor tasks, the number of words read, and the surface area, the length and mean velocity of the center of pressure (CoP). According to previous studies, postural control improves with age until 10-12 years. Saccades toward a target as well as during a reading task reduce significantly the CoP displacement and its velocity, while during pursuit eye movements all children increase postural parameters (i.e., the surface area, the length and mean velocity of the CoP). These results suggest the presence of an interaction between the oculomotor control and the postural system. Visual attention to perform saccades (to stationary targets or to words) influences postural stability more than the frequency of saccade triggering does. PMID:26096315

  2. My Imagination versus Your Feelings: Can Personal Affective Forecasts Be Improved by Knowing Other Peoples' Emotions?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walsh, Emma; Ayton, Peter

    2009-01-01

    A proposed remedy for biased affective forecasts is to base judgments on the actual feelings of people (surrogates) currently experiencing the event, rather than using imagination which conjures an inaccurate vision of the future. Gilbert et al. (2009) forced people to use surrogate reports by withholding all event information, resulting in better…

  3. Affective Forecasting: Teaching a Useful, Accessible, and Humbling Area of Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kurtz, Jaime L.

    2016-01-01

    All students, from college freshmen to advanced graduate students, have asked themselves, "Will this decision make me happy?" The vast majority of them have been wrong. Affective forecasting, the process of predicting future feelings, is a topic of great interest to students due to its applicable and highly relatable nature. This article…

  4. When idols look into the future: fair treatment modulates the affective forecasting error in talent show candidates.

    PubMed

    Feys, Marjolein; Anseel, Frederik

    2015-03-01

    People's affective forecasts are often inaccurate because they tend to overestimate how they will feel after an event. As life decisions are often based on affective forecasts, it is crucial to find ways to manage forecasting errors. We examined the impact of a fair treatment on forecasting errors in candidates in a Belgian reality TV talent show. We found that perceptions of fair treatment increased the forecasting error for losers (a negative audition decision) but decreased it for winners (a positive audition decision). For winners, this effect was even more pronounced when candidates were highly invested in their self-view as a future pop idol whereas for losers, the effect was more pronounced when importance was low. The results in this study point to a potential paradox between maximizing happiness and decreasing forecasting errors. A fair treatment increased the forecasting error for losers, but actually made them happier. PMID:24548171

  5. When idols look into the future: fair treatment modulates the affective forecasting error in talent show candidates.

    PubMed

    Feys, Marjolein; Anseel, Frederik

    2015-03-01

    People's affective forecasts are often inaccurate because they tend to overestimate how they will feel after an event. As life decisions are often based on affective forecasts, it is crucial to find ways to manage forecasting errors. We examined the impact of a fair treatment on forecasting errors in candidates in a Belgian reality TV talent show. We found that perceptions of fair treatment increased the forecasting error for losers (a negative audition decision) but decreased it for winners (a positive audition decision). For winners, this effect was even more pronounced when candidates were highly invested in their self-view as a future pop idol whereas for losers, the effect was more pronounced when importance was low. The results in this study point to a potential paradox between maximizing happiness and decreasing forecasting errors. A fair treatment increased the forecasting error for losers, but actually made them happier.

  6. Extrinsic value orientation and affective forecasting: overestimating the rewards, underestimating the costs.

    PubMed

    Sheldon, Kennon M; Gunz, Alexander; Nichols, Charles P; Ferguson, Yuna

    2010-02-01

    We examined affective forecasting errors as a possible explanation of the perennial appeal of extrinsic values and goals. Study 1 found that although people relatively higher in extrinsic (money, fame, image) compared to intrinsic (growth, intimacy, community) value orientation (REVO) are less happy, they nevertheless believe that attaining extrinsic goals offers a strong potential route to happiness. Study 2's longitudinal experimental design randomly assigned participants to pursue either 3 extrinsic or 3 intrinsic goals over 4 weeks, and REVO again predicted stronger forecasts regarding extrinsic goals. However, not even extrinsically oriented participants gained well-being benefits from attaining extrinsic goals, whereas all participants tended to gain in happiness from attaining intrinsic goals. Study 3 showed that the effect of REVO on forecasts is mediated by extrinsic individuals' belief that extrinsic goals will satisfy autonomy and competence needs. It appears that some people overestimate the emotional benefits of achieving extrinsic goals, to their potential detriment.

  7. Underestimating nearby nature: affective forecasting errors obscure the happy path to sustainability.

    PubMed

    Nisbet, Elizabeth K; Zelenski, John M

    2011-09-01

    Modern lifestyles disconnect people from nature, and this may have adverse consequences for the well-being of both humans and the environment. In two experiments, we found that although outdoor walks in nearby nature made participants much happier than indoor walks did, participants made affective forecasting errors, such that they systematically underestimated nature's hedonic benefit. The pleasant moods experienced on outdoor nature walks facilitated a subjective sense of connection with nature, a construct strongly linked with concern for the environment and environmentally sustainable behavior. To the extent that affective forecasts determine choices, our findings suggest that people fail to maximize their time in nearby nature and thus miss opportunities to increase their happiness and relatedness to nature. Our findings suggest a happy path to sustainability, whereby contact with nature fosters individual happiness and environmentally responsible behavior.

  8. Does a Speaking Task Affect Second Language Comprehensibility?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crowther, Dustin; Trofimovich, Pavel; Isaacs, Talia; Saito, Kazuya

    2015-01-01

    The current study investigated task effects on listener perception of second language (L2) comprehensibility (ease of understanding). Sixty university-level adult speakers of English from 4 first language (L1) backgrounds (Chinese, Romance, Hindi, Farsi), with 15 speakers per group, were recorded performing 2 tasks (IELTS long-turn speaking task…

  9. Luminance controlled pupil size affects Landolt C task performance

    SciTech Connect

    Berman, S.M. ); Fein, G. ); Jewett, D.L.; Ashford, F. )

    1993-02-01

    Subjects judged the orientation of a 2 min. gap Landolt C located at a distance of 2.4 m. The stimuli were presented in central vision on a CRT, at low to medium contrast. The effects of varying the spectrum and luminance of surround lighting were assessed on both pupil size (measured using infrared pupillometry during task performance) and task accuracy. The task display was protected from the surround lighting, so that its luminance and contrast could be varied independently of the changes in the surround lighting. Indirect surround illumination was provided by either two illuminants of very different scotopic spectral content but with the same photopic luminance (Experiments 1 and 3), or by using the same illuminant at two different luminance levels (Experiment 2). In Experiment 3, the effect of changing surround spectrum was compared to the effect of varying task background luminance between 12 cd/m[sup 2] and 73 cd/m[sup 2]. In all experiments, scotopically enhanced surround lighting produced pupil areas which were reduced by almost 50% in comparison with surround lighting with relatively less scotopic luminance. Concomitantly there was improvement in Landolt C task performance with the scotopically enhanced surround lighting at all contrast and luminance levels. In these experiments, smaller pupil sizes were associated with significantly better visual-task performance in spite of lower task retinal illuminance when compared to the condition with larger pupils. These results suggest that changes in surround spectrum can compensate for the effect on task performance of a reduction in task luminance and supports the hypothesis that lighting energy savings could accrue in the workplace by shifting lamp spectra to obtain greater scotopic efficacy.

  10. Luminance controlled pupil size affects Landolt C task performance. Revision

    SciTech Connect

    Berman, S.M.; Fein, G.; Jewett, D.L.; Ashford, F.

    1993-02-01

    Subjects judged the orientation of a 2 min. gap Landolt C located at a distance of 2.4 m. The stimuli were presented in central vision on a CRT, at low to medium contrast. The effects of varying the spectrum and luminance of surround lighting were assessed on both pupil size (measured using infrared pupillometry during task performance) and task accuracy. The task display was protected from the surround lighting, so that its luminance and contrast could be varied independently of the changes in the surround lighting. Indirect surround illumination was provided by either two illuminants of very different scotopic spectral content but with the same photopic luminance (Experiments 1 and 3), or by using the same illuminant at two different luminance levels (Experiment 2). In Experiment 3, the effect of changing surround spectrum was compared to the effect of varying task background luminance between 12 cd/m{sup 2} and 73 cd/m{sup 2}. In all experiments, scotopically enhanced surround lighting produced pupil areas which were reduced by almost 50% in comparison with surround lighting with relatively less scotopic luminance. Concomitantly there was improvement in Landolt C task performance with the scotopically enhanced surround lighting at all contrast and luminance levels. In these experiments, smaller pupil sizes were associated with significantly better visual-task performance in spite of lower task retinal illuminance when compared to the condition with larger pupils. These results suggest that changes in surround spectrum can compensate for the effect on task performance of a reduction in task luminance and supports the hypothesis that lighting energy savings could accrue in the workplace by shifting lamp spectra to obtain greater scotopic efficacy.

  11. The relations of daily task accomplishment satisfaction with changes in affect: a multilevel study in nurses.

    PubMed

    Gabriel, Allison S; Diefendorff, James M; Erickson, Rebecca J

    2011-09-01

    Focusing on a sample of nurses, this investigation examined the relationships of daily task accomplishment satisfaction (for direct and indirect care tasks) with changes in positive and negative affect from preshift to postshift. Not accomplishing tasks to one's satisfaction was conceptualized as a daily workplace stressor that should increase daily negative affect and decrease daily positive affect from preshift to postshift. Further, because of the greater centrality of direct care nursing tasks to nursing work role identities (relative to indirect care tasks), we expected that task accomplishment satisfaction (or lack thereof) for these tasks would have stronger effects on changes in affect than would task accomplishment satisfaction for indirect care tasks. We also examined 2 person-level resources, collegial nurse-physician relations and psychological resilience, as moderators of the relationships among these daily variables, with the expectation that these resources would buffer the harmful effects of low task accomplishment satisfaction on nurse affect. Results supported almost all of the proposed effects, though the cross-level interactions were observed only for the effects of indirect care task accomplishment satisfaction on affect and not for direct care task accomplishment satisfaction on affect. PMID:21639600

  12. Viewer Perspective Affects Central Bottleneck Requirements in Spatial Translation Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Franz, Elizabeth A.; Sebastian, Alexandra; Hust, Christina; Norris, Tom

    2008-01-01

    A psychological refractory period (PRP) approach and the locus of slack logic were applied to examine the novel question of whether spatial translation processes can begin before the central bottleneck when effector or noneffector stimuli are processed from an egocentric (viewer-centered) perspective. In single tasks, trials requiring spatial…

  13. Acute physical exercise affected processing efficiency in an auditory attention task more than processing effectiveness.

    PubMed

    Dutke, Stephan; Jaitner, Thomas; Berse, Timo; Barenberg, Jonathan

    2014-02-01

    Research on effects of acute physical exercise on performance in a concurrent cognitive task has generated equivocal evidence. Processing efficiency theory predicts that concurrent physical exercise can increase resource requirements for sustaining cognitive performance even when the level of performance is unaffected. This hypothesis was tested in a dual-task experiment. Sixty young adults worked on a primary auditory attention task and a secondary interval production task while cycling on a bicycle ergometer. Physical load (cycling) and cognitive load of the primary task were manipulated. Neither physical nor cognitive load affected primary task performance, but both factors interacted on secondary task performance. Sustaining primary task performance under increased physical and/or cognitive load increased resource consumption as indicated by decreased secondary task performance. Results demonstrated that physical exercise effects on cognition might be underestimated when only single task performance is the focus.

  14. Task-irrelevant stimulus salience affects visual search.

    PubMed

    Lamy, Dominique; Zoaris, Loren

    2009-05-01

    The relative contributions of stimulus salience and task-related goals in guiding attention remain an issue of debate. Several studies have demonstrated that top-down factors play an important role, as they often override capture by salient irrelevant objects. However, Yantis and Egeth [Yantis, S., & Egeth, H. E. (1999). On the distinction between visual salience and stimulus-driven attentional capture. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 25, 661-676.] have made the more radical claim that salience plays no role in visual search unless the observer adopts an attentional set for singletons or "singleton-detection mode". We reexamine their claim while disentangling effects of stimulus salience from effects of attentional set and inter-trial repetition. The results show that stimulus salience guides attention even when salience is task irrelevant.

  15. Coping strategies and immune neglect in affective forecasting: Direct evidence and key moderators

    PubMed Central

    Hoerger, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Affective forecasting skills have important implications for decision making. However, recent research suggests that immune neglect – the tendency to overlook coping strategies that reduce future distress – may lead to affective forecasting problems. Prior evidence for immune neglect has been indirect. More direct evidence and a deeper understanding of immune neglect are vital to informing the design of future decision-support interventions. In the current study, young adults (N = 325) supplied predicted, actual, and recollected reactions to an emotionally-evocative interpersonal event, Valentine’s Day. Based on participants’ qualitative descriptions of the holiday, a team of raters reliably coded the effectiveness of their coping strategies. Supporting the immune neglect hypothesis, participants overlooked the powerful role of coping strategies when predicting their emotional reactions. Immune neglect was present not only for those experiencing the holiday negatively (non-daters) but also for those experiencing it positively (daters), suggesting that the bias may be more robust than originally theorized. Immune neglect was greater for immediate emotional reactions than more enduring reactions. Further, immune neglect was conspicuously absent from recollected emotional reactions. Implications for decision-support interventions are discussed. PMID:22375161

  16. Identification of Occupational Areas for Indiana's Future. Final Report of the Technology Forecasting Task Force.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Indiana State Commission on Vocational and Technical Education, Indianapolis.

    A task force representing the Indiana private sector was convened for two purposes: to (1) identify the impact of technology on required worker skills, the labor market, and the vocational education, training, and employment system; and (2) identify occupational areas that should be future growth areas for the state. Task force members reviewed…

  17. Embodied Information in Cognitive Tasks: Haptic Weight Sensations Affect Task Performance and Processing Style

    PubMed Central

    Kaspar, Kai; Vennekötter, Alina

    2015-01-01

    Research in the field of embodied cognition showed that incidental weight sensations influence peoples’ judgments about a variety of issues and objects. Most studies found that heaviness compared to lightness increases the perception of importance, seriousness, and potency. In two experiments, we broadened this scope by investigating the impact of weight sensations on cognitive performance. In Experiment 1, we found that the performance in an anagram task was reduced when participants held a heavy versus a light clipboard in their hands. Reduced performance was accompanied by an increase in the perceived effort. In Experiment 2, a heavy clipboard elicited a specific response heuristic in a two-alternative forced-choice task. Participants showed a significant right side bias when holding a heavy clipboard in their hands. After the task, participants in the heavy clipboard condition reported to be more frustrated than participants in the light clipboard condition. In both experiments, we did not find evidence for mediated effects that had been proposed by previous literature. Overall, the results indicate that weight effects go beyond judgment formation and highlight new avenues for future research. PMID:26421084

  18. Embodied Information in Cognitive Tasks: Haptic Weight Sensations Affect Task Performance and Processing Style.

    PubMed

    Kaspar, Kai; Vennekötter, Alina

    2015-01-01

    Research in the field of embodied cognition showed that incidental weight sensations influence peoples' judgments about a variety of issues and objects. Most studies found that heaviness compared to lightness increases the perception of importance, seriousness, and potency. In two experiments, we broadened this scope by investigating the impact of weight sensations on cognitive performance. In Experiment 1, we found that the performance in an anagram task was reduced when participants held a heavy versus a light clipboard in their hands. Reduced performance was accompanied by an increase in the perceived effort. In Experiment 2, a heavy clipboard elicited a specific response heuristic in a two-alternative forced-choice task. Participants showed a significant right side bias when holding a heavy clipboard in their hands. After the task, participants in the heavy clipboard condition reported to be more frustrated than participants in the light clipboard condition. In both experiments, we did not find evidence for mediated effects that had been proposed by previous literature. Overall, the results indicate that weight effects go beyond judgment formation and highlight new avenues for future research. PMID:26421084

  19. The future in clinical genetics: affective forecasting biases in patient and clinician decision making.

    PubMed

    Peters, S A; Laham, S M; Pachter, N; Winship, I M

    2014-04-01

    When clinicians facilitate and patients make decisions about predictive genetic testing, they often base their choices on the predicted emotional consequences of positive and negative test results. Research from psychology and decision making suggests that such predictions may often be biased. Work on affective forecasting-predicting one's future emotional states-shows that people tend to overestimate the impact of (especially negative) emotional events on their well-being; a phenomenon termed the impact bias. In this article, we review the causes and consequences of the impact bias in medical decision making, with a focus on applying such findings to predictive testing in clinical genetics. We also recommend strategies for reducing the impact bias and consider the ethical and practical implications of doing so.

  20. Observational uncertainty of Arctic sea-ice concentration significantly affects seasonal climate forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bunzel, Felix; Notz, Dirk; Baehr, Johanna; Müller, Wolfgang; Fröhlich, Kristina

    2016-04-01

    We examine how the choice of a particular satellite-retrieved sea-ice concentration dataset used for initialising seasonal climate forecasts impacts the prediction skill of Arctic sea-ice area and Northern hemispheric 2-meter air temperatures. To do so, we performed two assimilation runs with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) from 1979 to 2012, where atmospheric and oceanic parameters as well as sea-ice concentration were assimilated using Newtonian relaxation. The two assimilation runs differ only in the sea-ice concentration dataset used for assimilating sea ice. In the first run, we use sea-ice concentrations as derived by the NASA-Team algorithm, while in the second run we use sea-ice concentrations as derived from the Bootstrap algorithm. A major difference between these two sea-ice concentration data products involves the treatment of melt ponds. While for both products melt ponds appear as open water in the raw satellite data, the Bootstrap algorithm more strongly attempts to offset this systematic bias by synthetically increasing the retrieved ice concentration during summer months. For each year of the two assimilation runs we performed a 10-member ensemble of hindcast experiments starting on 1 May and 1 November with a hindcast length of 6 months. For hindcasts started in November, initial differences in Arctic sea-ice area and surface temperature decrease rapidly throughout the freezing period. For hindcasts started in May, initial sea-ice area differences increase over time. By the end of the melting period, this causes significant differences in 2-meter air temperature of regionally more than 3°C. Hindcast skill for surface temperatures over Europe and North America is higher with Bootstrap initialization during summer and with NASA Team initialisation during winter. This implies that the choice of the sea-ice data product and, thus, the observational uncertainty also affects forecasts of teleconnections that depend on Northern

  1. Relation of cognitive appraisal to cardiovascular reactivity, affect, and task engagement.

    PubMed

    Maier, Karl J; Waldstein, Shari R; Synowski, Stephen J

    2003-08-01

    The relation of primary cognitive appraisals to cardiovascular reactivity, affect, task engagement, and perceived stress was examined in 56 men (ages 18-29). Systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), heart rate, preejection period, stroke index, cardiac index, and total peripheral resistance were assessed at rest and during performance of a computerized mental arithmetic task. Extending on prior investigations, threat and challenge appraisals were assessed independently from one another and from secondary appraisals. Positive and negative affect, task engagement, and levels of perceived stress were also assessed. Results indicated that threat (R2 =.08, p =.01), challenge (R2 =.14, p =.003), and their interaction (R2 =.11, p =.006) independently predicted DBP reactivity; DBP responses were greatest among participants with a high threat/low challenge pattern of appraisal. Threat appraisals predicted greater negative affect (R2 =.32) and perceived stress (R2 =.48), whereas challenge appraisals were related to greater positive affect (R2 =.44) and task engagement (R2 =.40, ps <.0001). Greater positive affect was correlated with increased SBP and DBP reactivity, and greater levels of task engagement with increased DBP response (ps < or = .002). Results suggest that primary cognitive appraisals are more potent predictors of affect and task engagement than cardiovascular reactivity.

  2. The influence of a working memory task on affective perception of facial expressions.

    PubMed

    Lim, Seung-Lark; Bruce, Amanda S; Aupperle, Robin L

    2014-01-01

    In a dual-task paradigm, participants performed a spatial location working memory task and a forced two-choice perceptual decision task (neutral vs. fearful) with gradually morphed emotional faces (neutral ∼ fearful). Task-irrelevant word distractors (negative, neutral, and control) were experimentally manipulated during spatial working memory encoding. We hypothesized that, if affective perception is influenced by concurrent cognitive load using a working memory task, task-irrelevant emotional distractors would bias subsequent perceptual decision-making on ambiguous facial expression. We found that when either neutral or negative emotional words were presented as task-irrelevant working-memory distractors, participants more frequently reported fearful face perception - but only at the higher emotional intensity levels of morphed faces. Also, the affective perception bias due to negative emotional distractors correlated with a decrease in working memory performance. Taken together, our findings suggest that concurrent working memory load by task-irrelevant distractors has an impact on affective perception of facial expressions. PMID:25347772

  3. The influence of a working memory task on affective perception of facial expressions.

    PubMed

    Lim, Seung-Lark; Bruce, Amanda S; Aupperle, Robin L

    2014-01-01

    In a dual-task paradigm, participants performed a spatial location working memory task and a forced two-choice perceptual decision task (neutral vs. fearful) with gradually morphed emotional faces (neutral ∼ fearful). Task-irrelevant word distractors (negative, neutral, and control) were experimentally manipulated during spatial working memory encoding. We hypothesized that, if affective perception is influenced by concurrent cognitive load using a working memory task, task-irrelevant emotional distractors would bias subsequent perceptual decision-making on ambiguous facial expression. We found that when either neutral or negative emotional words were presented as task-irrelevant working-memory distractors, participants more frequently reported fearful face perception - but only at the higher emotional intensity levels of morphed faces. Also, the affective perception bias due to negative emotional distractors correlated with a decrease in working memory performance. Taken together, our findings suggest that concurrent working memory load by task-irrelevant distractors has an impact on affective perception of facial expressions.

  4. To branch out or stay focused? Affective shifts differentially predict organizational citizenship behavior and task performance.

    PubMed

    Yang, Liu-Qin; Simon, Lauren S; Wang, Lei; Zheng, Xiaoming

    2016-06-01

    We draw from personality systems interaction (PSI) theory (Kuhl, 2000) and regulatory focus theory (Higgins, 1997) to examine how dynamic positive and negative affective processes interact to predict both task and contextual performance. Using a twice-daily diary design over the course of a 3-week period, results from multilevel regression analysis revealed that distinct patterns of change in positive and negative affect optimally predicted contextual and task performance among a sample of 71 employees at a medium-sized technology company. Specifically, within persons, increases (upshifts) in positive affect over the course of a workday better predicted the subsequent day's organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) when such increases were coupled with decreases (downshifts) in negative affect. The optimal pattern of change in positive and negative affect differed, however, in predicting task performance. That is, upshifts in positive affect over the course of the workday better predicted the subsequent day's task performance when such upshifts were accompanied by upshifts in negative affect. The contribution of our findings to PSI theory and the broader affective and motivation regulation literatures, along with practical implications, are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26882443

  5. Emotion, working memory task demands and individual differences predict behavior, cognitive effort and negative affect.

    PubMed

    Storbeck, Justin; Davidson, Nicole A; Dahl, Chelsea F; Blass, Sara; Yung, Edwin

    2015-01-01

    We examined whether positive and negative affect motivates verbal and spatial working memory processes, respectively, which have implications for the expenditure of mental effort. We argue that when emotion promotes cognitive tendencies that are goal incompatible with task demands, greater cognitive effort is required to perform well. We sought to investigate whether this increase in cognitive effort impairs behavioural control over a broad domain of self-control tasks. Moreover, we predicted that individuals with higher behavioural inhibition system (BIS) sensitivities would report more negative affect within the goal incompatible conditions because such individuals report higher negative affect during cognitive challenge. Positive or negative affective states were induced followed by completing a verbal or spatial 2-back working memory task. All participants then completed one of three self-control tasks. Overall, we observed that conditions of emotion and working memory incompatibility (positive/spatial and negative/verbal) performed worse on the self-control tasks, and within the incompatible conditions individuals with higher BIS sensitivities reported more negative affect at the end of the study. The combination of findings suggests that emotion and working memory compatibility reduces cognitive effort and impairs behavioural control.

  6. Transient tasks and enduring emotions: the impacts of affective content, task relevance, and picture duration on the sustained late positive potential.

    PubMed

    Gable, Philip A; Adams, David L; Proudfit, Greg Hajcak

    2015-03-01

    The present experiments were designed to examine the influences of picture duration, task relevance, and affective content on neural measures of sustained engagement, as indexed by the late positive potential (LPP). Much prior work has shown that the event-related potential in and around the P3-here referred to as the early LPP-is modulated by affective content, nonaffective task relevance, and stimulus duration. However, later portions of the LPP (>1,000 ms) may represent either a return to baseline or a continued physiological process related to motivational engagement. In the present experiments, we tested whether modulation of the later LPP depends on varying motivational engagement using stimulus duration, affective content, and task relevance. The results of Experiment 1 revealed that stimulus duration modulates the sustained LPP (i.e., 1,000-2,000 ms) in response to affective, but not task-relevant, stimuli from a modified counting oddball task. The results of Experiment 2 revealed that the sustained increase in the LPP is sensitive to both emotional content and task relevance when the task requires sustained engagement with target stimuli (e.g., determining the duration of stimulus presentation). The impacts of emotional content and task relevance had additive effects on the later portion of the LPP. In sum, both emotional content and task relevance can result in a protracted increase in the later LPP. These data suggest that affective content automatically sustains engagement, whereas task relevance only prolongs engagement when it is necessary for task completion.

  7. Embodied simulation as part of affective evaluation processes: task dependence of valence concordant EMG activity.

    PubMed

    Weinreich, André; Funcke, Jakob Maria

    2014-01-01

    Drawing on recent findings, this study examines whether valence concordant electromyography (EMG) responses can be explained as an unconditional effect of mere stimulus processing or as somatosensory simulation driven by task-dependent processing strategies. While facial EMG over the Corrugator supercilii and the Zygomaticus major was measured, each participant performed two tasks with pictures of album covers. One task was an affective evaluation task and the other was to attribute the album covers to one of five decades. The Embodied Emotion Account predicts that valence concordant EMG is more likely to occur if the task necessitates a somatosensory simulation of the evaluative meaning of stimuli. Results support this prediction with regard to Corrugator supercilii in that valence concordant EMG activity was only present in the affective evaluation task but not in the non-evaluative task. Results for the Zygomaticus major were ambiguous. Our findings are in line with the view that EMG activity is an embodied part of the evaluation process and not a mere physical outcome.

  8. "How long will I suffer?" versus "How long will you suffer?" A self-other effect in affective forecasting.

    PubMed

    Igou, Eric R

    2008-10-01

    This research presents evidence that people predict longer durations of negative affect for others than for themselves. It is argued that this self-other effect is based on the asymmetric availability of knowledge about psychological strategies that reduce negative affective experiences. Specifically, because people have available knowledge about their own coping strategies, they use this information when making predictions about their affect. The lack of information about others' coping strategies leads to longer predictions of affect duration for others, creating the self-other effect. A series of studies demonstrated this self-other effect, its source, and its boundary conditions. Specifically, the self-other effect occurred for negative but not for positive events, it was stronger when participants predicted affect duration for unfamiliar others than when participants predicted affect duration for familiar others, and the impact of the self versus other focus on affective forecasts was mediated by the availability of knowledge about coping strategies. In addition, alternative explanations for the self-other effect were ruled out. The implications for biases in affective forecasting are discussed.

  9. "How long will I suffer?" versus "How long will you suffer?" A self-other effect in affective forecasting.

    PubMed

    Igou, Eric R

    2008-10-01

    This research presents evidence that people predict longer durations of negative affect for others than for themselves. It is argued that this self-other effect is based on the asymmetric availability of knowledge about psychological strategies that reduce negative affective experiences. Specifically, because people have available knowledge about their own coping strategies, they use this information when making predictions about their affect. The lack of information about others' coping strategies leads to longer predictions of affect duration for others, creating the self-other effect. A series of studies demonstrated this self-other effect, its source, and its boundary conditions. Specifically, the self-other effect occurred for negative but not for positive events, it was stronger when participants predicted affect duration for unfamiliar others than when participants predicted affect duration for familiar others, and the impact of the self versus other focus on affective forecasts was mediated by the availability of knowledge about coping strategies. In addition, alternative explanations for the self-other effect were ruled out. The implications for biases in affective forecasting are discussed. PMID:18808266

  10. How Cross-Language Similarity and Task Demands Affect Cognate Recognition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dijkstra, Ton; Miwa, Koji; Brummelhuis, Bianca; Sappelli, Maya; Baayen, Harald

    2010-01-01

    This study examines how the cross-linguistic similarity of translation equivalents affects bilingual word recognition. Performing one of three tasks, Dutch-English bilinguals processed cognates with varying degrees of form overlap between their English and Dutch counterparts (e.g., "lamp-lamp" vs. "flood-vloed" vs. "song-lied"). In lexical…

  11. The Functional Effect of Teacher Positive and Neutral Affect on Task Performance of Students with Significant Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Sungho; Singer, George H. S.; Gibson, Mary

    2005-01-01

    The study uses an alternating treatment design to evaluate the functional effect of teacher's affect on students' task performance. Tradition in special education holds that teachers should engage students using positive and enthusiastic affect for task presentations and praise. To test this assumption, we compared two affective conditions. Three…

  12. Changes in Interest and Affect during a Difficult Reading Task: Relationships with Perceived Difficulty and Reading Fluency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fulmer, Sara M.; Tulis, Maria

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated changes in middle school students' interest and affect during a moderately difficult reading task. The aim was to explore how changes in interest (topic and situational) and affect were related to students' reading fluency throughout the task and perceived difficulty. Interest and affect were recorded at four time points:…

  13. The conflict adaptation is affected by attentional strategies: evidence from the arrow flanker task.

    PubMed

    Chen, Jia; Li, Chang; He, ChunHong; Chen, AnTao

    2009-10-01

    Recently, several studies have considered factors affecting the occurrence of congruency sequence effect (CSE) in the arrow flanker task. In the present study, the influence of the following factors was examined: the presentation of a fixation and the intertrial interval (ITI) were considered. Results of the study showed that the CSE was significant when there was no fixation and when the ITI was long for response repetitions and response changes, but disappeared for response change trials in other conditions. These results showed that, even in the arrow flanker task, the conflict adaptation effect did contribute to the CSE. The current results suggested that the conflict adaptation effect in the arrow flanker task was based on the appropriate application of attention strategies.

  14. Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution.

    PubMed

    Real, Raimundo; Romero, David; Olivero, Jesús; Estrada, Alba; Márquez, Ana L

    2013-01-01

    Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (ρ), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.

  15. Letter search does not affect semantic priming in a probe naming task.

    PubMed

    Küper, Kristina; Heil, Martin

    2008-11-01

    The normally robust semantic priming effect observed in lexical decision is usually reduced to the point of being absent, when a letter search has to be performed on the prime. It has been argued that semantic activation is thus not an automatic process but rather cognitively controlled and therefore adaptable to task demands. We examined the effects of letter search priming on pronunciation times and found a reliable semantic priming effect, following letter search that was not affected at all relative to a standard condition, where participants silently read the prime. Thus the nature of the prime task did not seem to affect the processing mode employed, semantic access occurred even though attention was focused on surface properties of the prime.

  16. Improved Anvil Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.

    2000-01-01

    This report describes the outcome of Phase 1 of the AMU's Improved Anvil Forecasting task. Forecasters in the 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group have found that anvil forecasting is a difficult task when predicting LCC and FR violations. The purpose of this task is to determine the technical feasibility of creating an anvil-forecasting tool. Work on this study was separated into three steps: literature search, forecaster discussions, and determination of technical feasibility. The literature search revealed no existing anvil-forecasting techniques. However, there appears to be growing interest in anvils in recent years. If this interest continues to grow, more information will be available to aid in developing a reliable anvil-forecasting tool. The forecaster discussion step revealed an array of methods on how better forecasting techniques could be developed. The forecasters have ideas based on sound meteorological principles and personal experience in forecasting and analyzing anvils. Based on the information gathered in the discussions with the forecasters, the conclusion of this report is that it is technically feasible at this time to develop an anvil forecasting technique that will significantly contribute to the confidence in anvil forecasts.

  17. Memory for emotional words: The role of semantic relatedness, encoding task and affective valence.

    PubMed

    Ferré, Pilar; Fraga, Isabel; Comesaña, Montserrat; Sánchez-Casas, Rosa

    2015-01-01

    Emotional stimuli have been repeatedly demonstrated to be better remembered than neutral ones. The aim of the present study was to test whether this advantage in memory is mainly produced by the affective content of the stimuli or it can be rather accounted for by factors such as semantic relatedness or type of encoding task. The valence of the stimuli (positive, negative and neutral words that could be either semantically related or unrelated) as well as the type of encoding task (focused on either familiarity or emotionality) was manipulated. The results revealed an advantage in memory for emotional words (either positive or negative) regardless of semantic relatedness. Importantly, this advantage was modulated by the encoding task, as it was reliable only in the task which focused on emotionality. These findings suggest that congruity with the dimension attended at encoding might contribute to the superiority in memory for emotional words, thus offering us a more complex picture of the underlying mechanisms behind the advantage for emotional information in memory. PMID:25435268

  18. Memory for emotional words: The role of semantic relatedness, encoding task and affective valence.

    PubMed

    Ferré, Pilar; Fraga, Isabel; Comesaña, Montserrat; Sánchez-Casas, Rosa

    2015-01-01

    Emotional stimuli have been repeatedly demonstrated to be better remembered than neutral ones. The aim of the present study was to test whether this advantage in memory is mainly produced by the affective content of the stimuli or it can be rather accounted for by factors such as semantic relatedness or type of encoding task. The valence of the stimuli (positive, negative and neutral words that could be either semantically related or unrelated) as well as the type of encoding task (focused on either familiarity or emotionality) was manipulated. The results revealed an advantage in memory for emotional words (either positive or negative) regardless of semantic relatedness. Importantly, this advantage was modulated by the encoding task, as it was reliable only in the task which focused on emotionality. These findings suggest that congruity with the dimension attended at encoding might contribute to the superiority in memory for emotional words, thus offering us a more complex picture of the underlying mechanisms behind the advantage for emotional information in memory.

  19. Influence of affective words on lexical decision task in major depression.

    PubMed Central

    Stip, E; Lecours, A R; Chertkow, H; Elie, R; O'Connor, K

    1994-01-01

    In cognitive science, lexical decision task is used to investigate visual word recognition and lexical access. The issue of whether or not individuals who are depressed differ in their access to affectively laden words and specifically to words that have negative affect was examined. Based on some aspects of the Resource Allocation Model (Ellis), it was postulated that patients suffering from depression take more time to recognize items from an affective-loaded list. In order to compare their behavior in a lexical decision task, patients suffering from depression and healthy controls were studied. We hoped to find an interaction between the mood state of subjects and the categories (affective or neutral) of words. Two groups of right-handed adults served as subjects in our experiment. The first group consisted of 11 patients suffering from depression (mean age: 40.2; sd: 6.8). All of this group met the DSM-III-R and the Research Diagnostic Criteria for major depressive disorder. Severity of their disease was rated using the 24-item Hamilton Depressive Rating Scale. All patients suffering from depression were without psychotropic medication. The control group was composed of 24 subjects (mean age: 32.7; sd: 7.9). A depressive word-list and a neutral word-list were built and a computer was used for the lexical-decision task. A longer reaction time to detect the non-word stimuli (F1,33 = 11.19, p < 0.01) was observed with the patients by comparison to the normal subjects. In the analysis of the word stimuli, a group by list interaction (F1,33 = 7.18, p < 0.01) was found.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:8031744

  20. Affective forecasting about hedonic loss and adaptation: Implications for damage awards.

    PubMed

    Greene, Edie; Sturm, Kristin A; Evelo, Andrew J

    2016-06-01

    In tort lawsuits, plaintiffs may seek damages for loss of enjoyment of life, so-called hedonic loss, which occurred as a result of an accident or injury. In 2 studies, we examined how people judge others' adaptation and hedonic loss after an injury. Laypeople's forecasts of hedonic loss are relevant to concerns about whether jurors appropriately compensate plaintiffs. Longitudinal data of subjective well-being (e.g., Binder & Coad, 2013) show that hedonic loss is domain-specific: Many physical impairments (e.g., strokes) inflict less hedonic loss than many persistent yet invisible ailments (e.g., mental illness and conditions that cause chronic pain). We used vignette methodology to determine whether laypeople (n = 68 community members and 65 students in Study 1; 87 community members and 93 students in Study 2) and rehabilitation professionals (n = 47 in Study 2) were aware of this fact. In Study 1, participants' ratings of hedonic loss subsequent to a physical injury and a comparably severe psychological impairment did not differ. In Study 2, ratings of short- and long-term hedonic loss stemming from paraplegia and chronic back pain showed that neither laypeople nor professionals understood that hedonic loss is domain-specific. These findings imply that observers may forecast a future for people who suffered serious physical injuries as grimmer than it is likely to be, and a future for people who experience chronic pain and psychological disorders as rosier than is likely. (PsycINFO Database Record

  1. How do our prior assumptions about basal drag affect ice sheet forecasts?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arthern, Robert

    2015-04-01

    Forecasts of changes in the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica often begin with an inversion to select initial values for state variables and parameters in the model, such as basal drag and ice viscosity. These inversions can be ill-posed in the sense that many different choices for the parameter values can match the observational data equally well. To recover a mathematically well-posed problem, assumptions must be made that restrict the possible values of the parameters, either by regularisation or by explicit definition of Bayesian priors. Common assumptions are that parameters vary smoothly in space or lie close to some preferred initial guess, but for glaciological inversions it is often unclear how smoothly the parameters should vary, or how reliable the initial guess should be considered. This is especially true of inversions for the basal drag coefficient that can vary enormously from place to place on length scales set by subglacial hydrology, which is itself extremely poorly constrained by direct observations. Here we use a combination of forward modelling, inversion and a theoretical analysis based on transformation group priors to investigate different ways of introducing prior information about parameters, and to consider the consequences for ice sheet forecasts.

  2. Extraversion and reward-related processing: probing incentive motivation in affective priming tasks.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Michael D; Moeller, Sara K; Ode, Scott

    2010-10-01

    Based on an incentive motivation theory of extraversion (Depue & Collins, 1999), it was hypothesized that extraverts (relative to introverts) would exhibit stronger positive priming effects in affective priming tasks, whether involving words or pictures. This hypothesis was systematically supported in four studies involving 229 undergraduates. In each of the four studies, and in a subsequent combined analysis, extraversion was positively predictive of positive affective priming effects, but was not predictive of negative affective priming effects. The results bridge an important gap in the literature between biological and trait models of incentive motivation and do so in a way that should be informative to subsequent efforts to understand the processing basis of extraversion as well as incentive motivation.

  3. Auditory tasks for assessment of sensory function and affective prosody in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Petkova, Eva; Lu, Feihan; Kantrowitz, Joshua; Sanchez, Jamie L; Lehrfeld, Jonathan; Scaramello, Nayla; Silipo, Gail; DiCostanza, Joanna; Ross, Marina; Su, Zhe; Javitt, Daniel C; Butler, Pamela D

    2014-11-01

    Schizophrenia patients exhibit impairments in auditory-based social cognition, indicated by deficits in detection of prosody, such as affective prosody and basic pitch perception. However, little is known about the psychometric properties of behavioral tests used to assess these functions. The goal of this paper is to characterize the properties of prosody and pitch perception tasks and to investigate whether they can be shortened. The pitch perception test evaluated is a tone-matching task developed by Javitt and colleagues (J-TMT). The prosody test evaluated is the auditory emotion recognition task developed by Juslin and Laukka (JL-AER). The sample includes 124 schizophrenia patients (SZ) and 131 healthy controls (HC). Properties, including facility and discrimination, of each item were assessed. Effects of item characteristics (e.g., emotion) were also evaluated. Shortened versions of the tests are proposed based on facility, discrimination, and/or ability of item characteristics to discriminate between patients and controls. Test-retest reliability is high for patients and controls for both the original and short forms of the J-TMT and JL-AER. Thus, the original as well as short forms of the J-TMT and JL-AER are suggested for inclusion in clinical trials of social cognitive and perceptual treatments. The development of short forms further increases the utility of these auditory tasks in clinical trials and clinical practice. The large SZ vs. HC differences reported here also highlight the profound nature of auditory deficits and a need for remediation. PMID:25214372

  4. Auditory Tasks for Assessment of Sensory Function and Affective Prosody in Schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Petkova, Eva; Lu, Feihan; Kantrowitz, Joshua; Sanchez, Jamie L.; Lehrfeld, Jonathan; Scaramello, Nayla; Silipo, Gail; DiCostanza, Joanna; Ross, Marina; Su, Zhe; Javitt, Daniel C.; Butler, Pamela D.

    2015-01-01

    Schizophrenia patients exhibit impairments in auditory-based social cognition, indicated by deficits in detection of prosody, such as affective prosody and basic pitch perception. However, little is known about the psychometric properties of behavioral tests used to assess these functions. The goal of this paper is to characterize the properties of prosody and pitch perception tasks and to investigate whether they can be shortened. The pitch perception test evaluated is a tone-matching task developed by Javitt and colleagues (J-TMT). The prosody test evaluated is the auditory emotion recognition task developed by Juslin and Laukka (JL-AER). The sample includes 124 schizophrenia patients (SZ) and 131 healthy controls (HC). Properties, including facility and discrimination, of each item were assessed. Effects of item characteristics (e.g., emotion) were also evaluated. Shortened versions of the tests are proposed based on facility, discrimination, and/or ability of item characteristics to discriminate between patients and controls. Test-retest reliability is high for patients and controls for both the original and short forms of the J-TMT and JL-AER. Thus, the original as well as short forms of the J-TMT and JL-AER are suggested for inclusion in clinical trials of social cognitive and perceptual treatments. The development of short forms further increases the utility of these auditory tasks in clinical trials and clinical practice. The large SZ vs. HC differences reported here also highlight the profound nature of auditory deficits and a need for remediation. PMID:25214372

  5. Affectively salient meaning in random noise: a task sensitive to psychosis liability.

    PubMed

    Galdos, Mariana; Simons, Claudia; Fernandez-Rivas, Aranzazu; Wichers, Marieke; Peralta, Concepción; Lataster, Tineke; Amer, Guillermo; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Allardyce, Judith; Gonzalez-Torres, Miguel Angel; van Os, Jim

    2011-11-01

    Stable differences in the tendency to attribute meaning and emotional value to experience may represent an indicator of liability to psychosis. A brief task was developed assessing variation in detecting affectively meaningful speech (speech illusion) in neutral random signals (white noise) and the degree to which this was associated with psychometric and familial vulnerability for psychosis. Thirty patients, 28 of their siblings, and 307 controls participated. The rate of speech illusion was compared between cases and controls. In controls, the association between speech illusion and interview-based positive schizotypy was assessed. The hypothesis of a dose-response increase in rate of speech illusion across increasing levels of familial vulnerability for psychosis (controls, siblings of patients, and patients) was examined. Patients were more likely to display speech illusions than controls (odds ratio [OR] = 4.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4-11.7), also after controlling for neurocognitive variables (OR = 3.8, 95% CI = 1.04-14.1). The case-control difference was more accentuated for speech illusion perceived as affectively salient (positively or negatively appraised) than for neutrally appraised speech illusions. Speech illusion in the controls was strongly associated with positive schizotypy but not with negative schizotypy. In addition, the rate of speech illusion increased with increasing level of familial risk for psychotic disorder. The data suggest that the white noise task may be sensitive to psychometric and familial vulnerability for psychosis associated with alterations in top-down processing and/or salience attribution. PMID:20360211

  6. Glaucoma and Disability: Which tasks are affected, and at what stage of disease?

    PubMed Central

    Ramulu, Pradeep

    2009-01-01

    Purpose of Review To summarize recent work from clinical and epidemiological studies which describe how, and at what stage, glaucoma affects the performance of important vision-related activities. Recent Findings Difficulties with the extremes of lighting are the most frequent complaint in glaucoma. Individuals with bilateral glaucoma also self-report difficulty with a broad array of tasks including reading, walking, and driving. Bilateral glaucoma is associated with driving cessation and limitation, bumping into objects, slower walking, and falls. Some, but not all, studies also demonstrate higher accident rates in glaucoma. Measurable effects on reading speed have only been observed with field damage severe enough to affect binocular central acuity. Summary Glaucoma with bilateral visual field loss is associated with increased symptoms and a measurable decline in mobility and driving. Further work is necessary to establish whether unilateral glaucoma has a significant impact on patients, to determine whether reading difficulty is common in subjects with bilateral glaucoma, and to establish the effects of lighting conditions on task performance in glaucoma. PMID:19240541

  7. Affective and Deliberative Processes in Risky Choice: Age Differences in Risk Taking in the Columbia Card Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Figner, Bernd; Mackinlay, Rachael J.; Wilkening, Friedrich; Weber, Elke U.

    2009-01-01

    The authors investigated risk taking and underlying information use in 13- to 16- and 17- to 19-year-old adolescents and in adults in 4 experiments, using a novel dynamic risk-taking task, the Columbia Card Task (CCT). The authors investigated risk taking under differential involvement of affective versus deliberative processes with 2 versions of…

  8. How gender and task difficulty affect a sport-protective response in young adults.

    PubMed

    Lipps, David B; Eckner, James T; Richardson, James K; Ashton-Miller, James A

    2013-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that gender and task difficulty affect the reaction, movement, and total response times associated with performing a head protective response. Twenty-four healthy young adults (13 females) performed a protective response by raising their hands from waist level to block a foam ball fired at their head from an air cannon. Participants initially stood 8.25 m away from the cannon ('low difficulty'), and were moved successively closer in 60 cm increments until they failed to block at least five of eight balls ('high difficulty'). Limb motion was quantified using optoelectronic markers on the participants' left wrist. Males had significantly faster total response times (P = 0.042), a trend towards faster movement times (P = 0.054), and faster peak wrist velocity (P < 0.001) and acceleration (P = 0.032) than females. Reaction time, movement time, and total response time were significantly faster under high difficulty conditions for both genders (P < 0.001). This study suggests that baseball and softball pitchers and fielders should have sufficient time to protect their head from a batted ball under optimal conditions if they are adequately prepared for the task. PMID:23234296

  9. How gender and task difficulty affect a sport-protective response in young adults

    PubMed Central

    Lipps, David B.; Eckner, James T.; Richardson, James K.; Ashton-Miller, James A.

    2013-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that gender and task difficulty affect the reaction, movement, and total response times associated with performing a head protective response. Twenty-four healthy young adults (13 females) performed a protective response of raising their hands from waist level to block a foam ball fired at their head from an air cannon. Participants initially stood 8.25 m away from the cannon (‘low difficulty’), and were moved successively closer in 60 cm increments until they failed to block at least 5 of 8 balls (‘high difficulty’). Limb motion was quantified using optoelectronic markers on the participants’ left wrist. Males had significantly faster total response times (p = 0.042), a trend towards faster movement times (p = 0.054), and faster peak wrist velocity (p < .001) and acceleration (p = 0.032) than females. Reaction time, movement time, and total response time were significantly faster under high difficulty conditions for both genders (p < .001). This study suggests that baseball and softball pitchers and fielders should have sufficient time to protect their head from a batted ball under optimal conditions if they are adequately prepared for the task. PMID:23234296

  10. How gender and task difficulty affect a sport-protective response in young adults.

    PubMed

    Lipps, David B; Eckner, James T; Richardson, James K; Ashton-Miller, James A

    2013-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that gender and task difficulty affect the reaction, movement, and total response times associated with performing a head protective response. Twenty-four healthy young adults (13 females) performed a protective response by raising their hands from waist level to block a foam ball fired at their head from an air cannon. Participants initially stood 8.25 m away from the cannon ('low difficulty'), and were moved successively closer in 60 cm increments until they failed to block at least five of eight balls ('high difficulty'). Limb motion was quantified using optoelectronic markers on the participants' left wrist. Males had significantly faster total response times (P = 0.042), a trend towards faster movement times (P = 0.054), and faster peak wrist velocity (P < 0.001) and acceleration (P = 0.032) than females. Reaction time, movement time, and total response time were significantly faster under high difficulty conditions for both genders (P < 0.001). This study suggests that baseball and softball pitchers and fielders should have sufficient time to protect their head from a batted ball under optimal conditions if they are adequately prepared for the task.

  11. Altering the primacy bias--how does a prior task affect mismatch negativity?

    PubMed

    Mullens, Daniel; Woodley, Jessica; Whitson, Lisa; Provost, Alexander; Heathcote, Andrew; Winkler, István; Todd, Juanita

    2014-05-01

    The role in which two tones are first encountered in an unattended oddball sequence affects how deviance detection, reflected by mismatch negativity, treats them later when the roles reverse: a "primacy bias." We tested whether this effect is modulated by previous behavioral relevance assigned to the two tones. To this end, sequences in which the roles of the two tones alternated were preceded by a go/no-go task in which tones were presented with equal probability. Half of the participants were asked to respond to the short sounds, the other half to long sounds. Primacy bias was initially abolished but returned dependent upon the go-stimulus that the participant was assigned. Results demonstrate a long-term impact of prior learning on deviance detection, and that even when prior importance/equivalence is learned, the bias ultimately returns. Results are discussed in terms of persistent go-stimulus specific changes in responsiveness to sound.

  12. Affectively Salient Meaning in Random Noise: A Task Sensitive to Psychosis Liability

    PubMed Central

    Galdos, Mariana; Simons, Claudia; Fernandez-Rivas, Aranzazu; Wichers, Marieke; Peralta, Concepción; Lataster, Tineke; Amer, Guillermo; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Allardyce, Judith; Gonzalez-Torres, Miguel Angel; van Os, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Stable differences in the tendency to attribute meaning and emotional value to experience may represent an indicator of liability to psychosis. A brief task was developed assessing variation in detecting affectively meaningful speech (speech illusion) in neutral random signals (white noise) and the degree to which this was associated with psychometric and familial vulnerability for psychosis. Thirty patients, 28 of their siblings, and 307 controls participated. The rate of speech illusion was compared between cases and controls. In controls, the association between speech illusion and interview-based positive schizotypy was assessed. The hypothesis of a dose-response increase in rate of speech illusion across increasing levels of familial vulnerability for psychosis (controls, siblings of patients, and patients) was examined. Patients were more likely to display speech illusions than controls (odds ratio [OR] = 4.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4–11.7), also after controlling for neurocognitive variables (OR = 3.8, 95% CI = 1.04–14.1). The case-control difference was more accentuated for speech illusion perceived as affectively salient (positively or negatively appraised) than for neutrally appraised speech illusions. Speech illusion in the controls was strongly associated with positive schizotypy but not with negative schizotypy. In addition, the rate of speech illusion increased with increasing level of familial risk for psychotic disorder. The data suggest that the white noise task may be sensitive to psychometric and familial vulnerability for psychosis associated with alterations in top-down processing and/or salience attribution. PMID:20360211

  13. Testing the embodied account of object naming: a concurrent motor task affects naming artifacts and animals.

    PubMed

    Matheson, Heath E; White, Nicole; McMullen, Patricia A

    2014-01-01

    Embodied theories of object representation propose that the same neural networks are involved in encoding and retrieving object knowledge. In the present study, we investigated whether motor programs play a causal role in the retrieval of object names. Participants performed an object-naming task while squeezing a sponge with either their right or left hand. The objects were artifacts (e.g. hammer) or animals (e.g. giraffe) and were presented in an orientation that favored a grasp or not. We hypothesized that, if activation of motor programs is necessary to retrieve object knowledge, then concurrent motor activity would interfere with naming manipulable artifacts but not non-manipulable animals. In Experiment 1, we observed naming interference for all objects oriented towards the occupied hand. In Experiment 2, we presented the objects in more 'canonical orientations'. Participants named all objects more quickly when they were oriented towards the occupied hand. Together, these interference/facilitation effects suggest that concurrent motor activity affects naming for both categories. These results also suggest that picture-plane orientation interacts with an attentional bias that is elicited by the objects and their relationship to the occupied hand. These results may be more parsimoniously accounted for by a domain-general attentional effect, constraining the embodied theory of object representations. We suggest that researchers should scrutinize attentional accounts of other embodied cognitive effects.

  14. Testing the embodied account of object naming: a concurrent motor task affects naming artifacts and animals.

    PubMed

    Matheson, Heath E; White, Nicole; McMullen, Patricia A

    2014-01-01

    Embodied theories of object representation propose that the same neural networks are involved in encoding and retrieving object knowledge. In the present study, we investigated whether motor programs play a causal role in the retrieval of object names. Participants performed an object-naming task while squeezing a sponge with either their right or left hand. The objects were artifacts (e.g. hammer) or animals (e.g. giraffe) and were presented in an orientation that favored a grasp or not. We hypothesized that, if activation of motor programs is necessary to retrieve object knowledge, then concurrent motor activity would interfere with naming manipulable artifacts but not non-manipulable animals. In Experiment 1, we observed naming interference for all objects oriented towards the occupied hand. In Experiment 2, we presented the objects in more 'canonical orientations'. Participants named all objects more quickly when they were oriented towards the occupied hand. Together, these interference/facilitation effects suggest that concurrent motor activity affects naming for both categories. These results also suggest that picture-plane orientation interacts with an attentional bias that is elicited by the objects and their relationship to the occupied hand. These results may be more parsimoniously accounted for by a domain-general attentional effect, constraining the embodied theory of object representations. We suggest that researchers should scrutinize attentional accounts of other embodied cognitive effects. PMID:24291119

  15. Amphetamine affects the start of responding in the peak interval timing task.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Kathleen M; Horvitz, Jon C; Balsam, Peter D

    2007-02-22

    In this paper we investigate how amphetamine affects performance in a PI task by comparing two analyses of responding during peak trials. After training on 24 s fixed interval (FI-24) with 96 s peak trials, rats were given amphetamine for 4 consecutive days at doses of .5 and 1.0 mg/kg. Responses during peak trials were fitted with a Gaussian distribution to estimate the expected time of reinforcement from the peak time. A single trials analysis was also performed to determine the start time and stop time of the transition into and out of a high rate of responding on each peak trial. Amphetamine significantly decreased peak times as measured with the Gaussian curve fitting. However, in the single trials analysis, animals initiated responding significantly earlier, but did not stop responding earlier. Thus, fitting a Gaussian to the average performance across trials sometimes provides a different characterization of the timing process than does analyzing the start and stop of responding on individual trials. In the current experiment, the latter approach provided a more precise characterization of the effects of amphetamine on response timing.

  16. Prediction Techniques in Operational Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhukov, Andrei

    2016-07-01

    The importance of forecasting space weather conditions is steadily increasing as our society is becoming more and more dependent on advanced technologies that may be affected by disturbed space weather. Operational space weather forecasting is still a difficult task that requires the real-time availability of input data and specific prediction techniques that are reviewed in this presentation, with an emphasis on solar and interplanetary weather. Key observations that are essential for operational space weather forecasting are listed. Predictions made on the base of empirical and statistical methods, as well as physical models, are described. Their validation, accuracy, and limitations are discussed in the context of operational forecasting. Several important problems in the scientific basis of predicting space weather are described, and possible ways to overcome them are discussed, including novel space-borne observations that could be available in future.

  17. Erroneous Knowledge of Results Affects Decision and Memory Processes on Timing Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryan, Lawrence J.; Fritz, Matthew S.

    2007-01-01

    On mental timing tasks, erroneous knowledge of results (KR) leads to incorrect performance accompanied by the subjective judgment of accurate performance. Using the start-stop technique (an analogue of the peak interval procedure) with both reproduction and production timing tasks, the authors analyze what processes erroneous KR alters. KR…

  18. Cognitive tasks during expectation affect the congruency ERP effects to facial expressions

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Huiyan; Schulz, Claudia; Straube, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Expectancy congruency has been shown to modulate event-related potentials (ERPs) to emotional stimuli, such as facial expressions. However, it is unknown whether the congruency ERP effects to facial expressions can be modulated by cognitive manipulations during stimulus expectation. To this end, electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded while participants viewed (neutral and fearful) facial expressions. Each trial started with a cue, predicting a facial expression, followed by an expectancy interval without any cues and subsequently the face. In half of the trials, participants had to solve a cognitive task in which different letters were presented for target letter detection during the expectancy interval. Furthermore, facial expressions were congruent with the cues in 75% of all trials. ERP results revealed that for fearful faces, the cognitive task during expectation altered the congruency effect in N170 amplitude; congruent compared to incongruent fearful faces evoked larger N170 in the non-task condition but the congruency effect was not evident in the task condition. Regardless of facial expression, the congruency effect was generally altered by the cognitive task during expectation in P3 amplitude; the amplitudes were larger for incongruent compared to congruent faces in the non-task condition but the congruency effect was not shown in the task condition. The findings indicate that cognitive tasks during expectation reduce the processing of expectation and subsequently, alter congruency ERP effects to facial expressions. PMID:26578938

  19. Cognitive Style as a Factor Affecting Task-Based Reading Comprehension Test Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salmani-Nodoushan, Mohammad Ali

    2005-01-01

    For purposes of the present study, it was hypothesized that field (in)dependence would introduce systematic variance into Iranian EFL learners' overall and task-specific performance on task-based reading comprehension tests. 1743 freshman, sophomore, junior, and senior students all majoring in English at different Iranian universities and colleges…

  20. Do Content, Format, and Level of Inquiry Affect Scores on Open-Ended Science Tasks?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stecher, Brian M.; Klein, Stephen P.; Solano-Flores, Guillermo; McCaffrey, Dan; Robyn, Abby; Shavelson, Richard J.; Haertel, Edward

    This study investigated three factors that may contribute to the large variation in student performance across open-ended measures. These factors are content domain, format (whether the task required only pencil and paper or involved a hands-on manipulation of equipment), and level of inquiry (whether the task guided the student toward the…

  1. Thinking about the Weather: How Display Salience and Knowledge Affect Performance in a Graphic Inference Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hegarty, Mary; Canham, Matt S.; Fabrikant, Sara I.

    2010-01-01

    Three experiments examined how bottom-up and top-down processes interact when people view and make inferences from complex visual displays (weather maps). Bottom-up effects of display design were investigated by manipulating the relative visual salience of task-relevant and task-irrelevant information across different maps. Top-down effects of…

  2. Cognitive tasks during expectation affect the congruency ERP effects to facial expressions.

    PubMed

    Lin, Huiyan; Schulz, Claudia; Straube, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Expectancy congruency has been shown to modulate event-related potentials (ERPs) to emotional stimuli, such as facial expressions. However, it is unknown whether the congruency ERP effects to facial expressions can be modulated by cognitive manipulations during stimulus expectation. To this end, electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded while participants viewed (neutral and fearful) facial expressions. Each trial started with a cue, predicting a facial expression, followed by an expectancy interval without any cues and subsequently the face. In half of the trials, participants had to solve a cognitive task in which different letters were presented for target letter detection during the expectancy interval. Furthermore, facial expressions were congruent with the cues in 75% of all trials. ERP results revealed that for fearful faces, the cognitive task during expectation altered the congruency effect in N170 amplitude; congruent compared to incongruent fearful faces evoked larger N170 in the non-task condition but the congruency effect was not evident in the task condition. Regardless of facial expression, the congruency effect was generally altered by the cognitive task during expectation in P3 amplitude; the amplitudes were larger for incongruent compared to congruent faces in the non-task condition but the congruency effect was not shown in the task condition. The findings indicate that cognitive tasks during expectation reduce the processing of expectation and subsequently, alter congruency ERP effects to facial expressions.

  3. Information-Processing and Perceptions of Control: How Attribution Style Affects Task-Relevant Processing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yeigh, Tony

    2007-01-01

    This study investigated the effects of perceived controllability on information processing within Weiner's (1985, 1986) attributional model of learning. Attributional style was used to identify trait patterns of controllability for 37 university students. Task-relevant feedback on an information-processing task was then manipulated to test for…

  4. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profiles on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Blakenship, Clay B.; Wick, Gary A.; Neiman, Paul J.

    2013-01-01

    This project is a collaborative activity between the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) to evaluate a SPoRT Advanced Infrared Sounding Radiometer (AIRS: Aumann et al. 2003) enhanced moisture analysis product. We test the impact of assimilating AIRS temperature and humidity profiles above clouds and in partly cloudy regions, using the three-dimensional variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) system (Developmental Testbed Center 2012) to produce a new analysis. Forecasts of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized from the new analysis are compared to control forecasts without the additional AIRS data. We focus on some cases where atmospheric rivers caused heavy precipitation on the US West Coast. We verify the forecasts by comparison with dropsondes and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) Blended Total Precipitable Water product.

  5. ERP measures of math anxiety: how math anxiety affects working memory and mental calculation tasks?

    PubMed

    Klados, Manousos A; Simos, Panagiotis; Micheloyannis, Sifis; Margulies, Daniel; Bamidis, Panagiotis D

    2015-01-01

    There have been several attempts to account for the impact of Mathematical Anxiety (MA) on brain activity with variable results. The present study examines the effects of MA on ERP amplitude during performance of simple arithmetic calculations and working memory tasks. Data were obtained from 32 university students as they solved four types of arithmetic problems (one- and two-digit addition and multiplication) and a working memory task comprised of three levels of difficulty (1, 2, and 3-back task). Compared to the Low-MA group, High-MA individuals demonstrated reduced ERP amplitude at frontocentral (between 180-320 ms) and centroparietal locations (between 380-420 ms). These effects were independent of task difficulty/complexity, individual performance, and general state/trait anxiety levels. Results support the hypothesis that higher levels of self-reported MA are associated with lower cortical activation during the early stages of the processing of numeric stimuli in the context of cognitive tasks.

  6. Housing conditions affect rat responses to two types of ambiguity in a reward–reward discrimination cognitive bias task

    PubMed Central

    Parker, Richard M.A.; Paul, Elizabeth S.; Burman, Oliver H.P.; Browne, William J.; Mendl, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Decision-making under ambiguity in cognitive bias tasks is a promising new indicator of affective valence in animals. Rat studies support the hypothesis that animals in a negative affective state evaluate ambiguous cues negatively. Prior automated operant go/go judgement bias tasks have involved training rats that an auditory cue of one frequency predicts a Reward and a cue of a different frequency predicts a Punisher (RP task), and then measuring whether ambiguous cues of intermediate frequency are judged as predicting reward (‘optimism’) or punishment (‘pessimism’). We investigated whether an automated Reward–Reward (RR) task yielded similar results to, and was faster to train than, RP tasks. We also introduced a new ambiguity test (simultaneous presentation of the two training cues) alongside the standard single ambiguous cue test. Half of the rats experienced an unpredictable housing treatment (UHT) designed to induce a negative state. Control rats were relatively ‘pessimistic’, whilst UHT rats were quicker, but no less accurate, in their responses in the RR test, and showed less anxiety-like behaviour in independent tests. A possible reason for these findings is that rats adapted to and were stimulated by UHT, whilst control rats in a predictable environment were more sensitive to novelty and change. Responses in the new ambiguity test correlated positively with those in single ambiguous cue tests, and may provide a measure of attention bias. The RR task was quicker to train than previous automated RP tasks. Together, they could be used to disentangle how reward and punishment processes underpin affect-induced cognitive biases. PMID:25106739

  7. Housing conditions affect rat responses to two types of ambiguity in a reward-reward discrimination cognitive bias task.

    PubMed

    Parker, Richard M A; Paul, Elizabeth S; Burman, Oliver H P; Browne, William J; Mendl, Michael

    2014-11-01

    Decision-making under ambiguity in cognitive bias tasks is a promising new indicator of affective valence in animals. Rat studies support the hypothesis that animals in a negative affective state evaluate ambiguous cues negatively. Prior automated operant go/go judgement bias tasks have involved training rats that an auditory cue of one frequency predicts a Reward and a cue of a different frequency predicts a Punisher (RP task), and then measuring whether ambiguous cues of intermediate frequency are judged as predicting reward ('optimism') or punishment ('pessimism'). We investigated whether an automated Reward-Reward (RR) task yielded similar results to, and was faster to train than, RP tasks. We also introduced a new ambiguity test (simultaneous presentation of the two training cues) alongside the standard single ambiguous cue test. Half of the rats experienced an unpredictable housing treatment (UHT) designed to induce a negative state. Control rats were relatively 'pessimistic', whilst UHT rats were quicker, but no less accurate, in their responses in the RR test, and showed less anxiety-like behaviour in independent tests. A possible reason for these findings is that rats adapted to and were stimulated by UHT, whilst control rats in a predictable environment were more sensitive to novelty and change. Responses in the new ambiguity test correlated positively with those in single ambiguous cue tests, and may provide a measure of attention bias. The RR task was quicker to train than previous automated RP tasks. Together, they could be used to disentangle how reward and punishment processes underpin affect-induced cognitive biases.

  8. Housing conditions affect rat responses to two types of ambiguity in a reward-reward discrimination cognitive bias task.

    PubMed

    Parker, Richard M A; Paul, Elizabeth S; Burman, Oliver H P; Browne, William J; Mendl, Michael

    2014-11-01

    Decision-making under ambiguity in cognitive bias tasks is a promising new indicator of affective valence in animals. Rat studies support the hypothesis that animals in a negative affective state evaluate ambiguous cues negatively. Prior automated operant go/go judgement bias tasks have involved training rats that an auditory cue of one frequency predicts a Reward and a cue of a different frequency predicts a Punisher (RP task), and then measuring whether ambiguous cues of intermediate frequency are judged as predicting reward ('optimism') or punishment ('pessimism'). We investigated whether an automated Reward-Reward (RR) task yielded similar results to, and was faster to train than, RP tasks. We also introduced a new ambiguity test (simultaneous presentation of the two training cues) alongside the standard single ambiguous cue test. Half of the rats experienced an unpredictable housing treatment (UHT) designed to induce a negative state. Control rats were relatively 'pessimistic', whilst UHT rats were quicker, but no less accurate, in their responses in the RR test, and showed less anxiety-like behaviour in independent tests. A possible reason for these findings is that rats adapted to and were stimulated by UHT, whilst control rats in a predictable environment were more sensitive to novelty and change. Responses in the new ambiguity test correlated positively with those in single ambiguous cue tests, and may provide a measure of attention bias. The RR task was quicker to train than previous automated RP tasks. Together, they could be used to disentangle how reward and punishment processes underpin affect-induced cognitive biases. PMID:25106739

  9. Young Children's Affective Decision-Making in a Gambling Task: Does Difficulty in Learning the Gain/Loss Schedule Matter?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gao, Shan; Wei, Yonggang; Bai, Junjie; Lin, Chongde; Li, Hong

    2009-01-01

    This research investigated the development of affective decision-making (ADM) during early childhood, in particular role of difficulty in learning a gain/loss schedule. In Experiment 1, we administrated the Children's Gambling Task (CGT) to 60 Chinese children aged 3 and 4, replicating the results obtained by Kerr and Zelazo [Kerr, A., & Zelazo,…

  10. Children's Use of the Yahooligans! Web Search Engine: I. Cognitive, Physical, and Affective Behaviors on Fact-based Search Tasks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bilal, Dania

    2000-01-01

    Reports on a research project that investigated seventh grade science students' cognitive, affective, and physical behaviors as they used the Yahooligans! search engine to find information on a specific search task. Describes measurement techniques that included software, interviews, and questionnaires, and discusses implications for user training…

  11. Self-Reported Stickiness of Mind-Wandering Affects Task Performance.

    PubMed

    van Vugt, Marieke K; Broers, Nico

    2016-01-01

    When asked to perform a certain task, we typically spend a decent amount of time thinking thoughts unrelated to that task-a phenomenon referred to as "mind-wandering." It is thought that this mind-wandering is driven at least in part by our unfinished goals and concerns. Previous studies have shown that just after presenting a participant with their own concerns, their reports of task-unrelated thinking increased somewhat. However, effects of these concerns on task performance were somewhat inconsistent. In this study we take the opposite approach, and examine whether task performance depends on the self-reported thought content. Specifically, a particularly intriguing aspect of mind-wandering that has hitherto received little attention is the difficulty of disengaging from it, in other words, the "stickiness" of the thoughts. While presenting participants with their own concerns was not associated with clear effects on task performance, we showed that the reports of off-task thinking and variability of response times increased with the amount of self-reported stickiness of thoughts. This suggests that the stickiness of mind-wandering is a relevant variable, and participants are able to meaningfully report on it.

  12. Self-Reported Stickiness of Mind-Wandering Affects Task Performance.

    PubMed

    van Vugt, Marieke K; Broers, Nico

    2016-01-01

    When asked to perform a certain task, we typically spend a decent amount of time thinking thoughts unrelated to that task-a phenomenon referred to as "mind-wandering." It is thought that this mind-wandering is driven at least in part by our unfinished goals and concerns. Previous studies have shown that just after presenting a participant with their own concerns, their reports of task-unrelated thinking increased somewhat. However, effects of these concerns on task performance were somewhat inconsistent. In this study we take the opposite approach, and examine whether task performance depends on the self-reported thought content. Specifically, a particularly intriguing aspect of mind-wandering that has hitherto received little attention is the difficulty of disengaging from it, in other words, the "stickiness" of the thoughts. While presenting participants with their own concerns was not associated with clear effects on task performance, we showed that the reports of off-task thinking and variability of response times increased with the amount of self-reported stickiness of thoughts. This suggests that the stickiness of mind-wandering is a relevant variable, and participants are able to meaningfully report on it. PMID:27242636

  13. Pre-assessment exposure to schedule-correlated stimuli affects choice responding for tasks.

    PubMed

    Kelley, Michael E; Shamlian, Kenneth; Lomas, Joanna E; Pabico, Robert S

    2011-01-01

    Establishing compliance with academic and daily-living-skills instructions is important for shaping and maintaining behavior. In the current study, we exposed two participants to two stimulus conditions that were correlated with different consequences (more work vs. reinforcement) subsequent to a baseline in which responding was undifferentiated. Exposure to the differential consequences produced greater cooperation with the instruction to "pick one" task and response allocation towards the stimulus that was correlated with reinforcement as a consequence for task completion. These results suggest that clarifying the consequences of choice making may facilitate cooperation with task instructions.

  14. Forecasting forecast skill

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

  15. Evaluation of an operant successive negative contrast task as a method to study affective state in rodents.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Emma N; Marston, Hugh M; Nutt, David J; Robinson, Emma S J

    2012-10-01

    Successive negative contrast (SNC) describes a change in an animal's behaviour following a downshift in the quantitative or qualitative value of a reward. Previous studies suggest both consummatory and instrumental paradigms have the potential to provide an objective measure of affective state in rodents. We first investigated whether an SNC effect is observed in an operant task based on the 5 choice serial reaction time task. We then tested whether this SNC effect was sensitive to differences in affective state induced by manipulating the home cage environment. In animals trained to receive a four pellet food reward, reinforcer downshift to a single reward pellet induced a significant slowing of both correct response and collection latencies to levels below that of animals which had only ever received the lower value reward, indicating a SNC effect. Home cage environmental enrichment resulted in a paradoxical effect on responses in this SNC task where animals housed in a barren environment showed faster baseline response times and the SNC effect was significantly attenuated. These data suggest that the animals housed in the barren conditions were in a more positive affective and/or motivational state during testing than animals housed in enriched cages. Although opposite to the effects of housing conditions in a runway SNC task, these data could be explained by the enriching effects of daily training in an operant task. Rather than inducing a negative affective state in rats, the barren housing conditions resulted in a relatively more positive affective state in the chamber when compared to animals living in a highly enriched environment. PMID:22732261

  16. Self-Reported Stickiness of Mind-Wandering Affects Task Performance

    PubMed Central

    van Vugt, Marieke K.; Broers, Nico

    2016-01-01

    When asked to perform a certain task, we typically spend a decent amount of time thinking thoughts unrelated to that task–a phenomenon referred to as “mind-wandering.” It is thought that this mind-wandering is driven at least in part by our unfinished goals and concerns. Previous studies have shown that just after presenting a participant with their own concerns, their reports of task-unrelated thinking increased somewhat. However, effects of these concerns on task performance were somewhat inconsistent. In this study we take the opposite approach, and examine whether task performance depends on the self-reported thought content. Specifically, a particularly intriguing aspect of mind-wandering that has hitherto received little attention is the difficulty of disengaging from it, in other words, the “stickiness” of the thoughts. While presenting participants with their own concerns was not associated with clear effects on task performance, we showed that the reports of off-task thinking and variability of response times increased with the amount of self-reported stickiness of thoughts. This suggests that the stickiness of mind-wandering is a relevant variable, and participants are able to meaningfully report on it. PMID:27242636

  17. Thinking about the weather: How display salience and knowledge affect performance in a graphic inference task.

    PubMed

    Hegarty, Mary; Canham, Matt S; Fabrikant, Sara I

    2010-01-01

    Three experiments examined how bottom-up and top-down processes interact when people view and make inferences from complex visual displays (weather maps). Bottom-up effects of display design were investigated by manipulating the relative visual salience of task-relevant and task-irrelevant information across different maps. Top-down effects of domain knowledge were investigated by examining performance and eye fixations before and after participants learned relevant meteorological principles. Map design and knowledge interacted such that salience had no effect on performance before participants learned the meteorological principles; however, after learning, participants were more accurate if they viewed maps that made task-relevant information more visually salient. Effects of display design on task performance were somewhat dissociated from effects of display design on eye fixations. The results support a model in which eye fixations are directed primarily by top-down factors (task and domain knowledge). They suggest that good display design facilitates performance not just by guiding where viewers look in a complex display but also by facilitating processing of the visual features that represent task-relevant information at a given display location. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Typical and atypical antipsychotic medications differentially affect two nondeclarative memory tasks in schizophrenic patients: a double dissociation.

    PubMed

    Beninger, Richard J; Wasserman, James; Zanibbi, Katherine; Charbonneau, Danielle; Mangels, Jennifer; Beninger, Bruce V

    2003-06-01

    Nondeclarative memory (NDM) has subtypes associated with different brain regions; learning of a probabilistic classification task is impaired by striatal damage and learning of a gambling task is impaired by ventromedial prefrontocortical damage. Typical and atypical antipsychotic medications differentially affect immediate early gene expression in the striatum and frontal cortex in normal rats. This suggested the hypothesis that schizophrenic patients treated with typical antipsychotics will have impaired probabilistic classification learning (PCL) and that similar patients treated with atypical antipsychotics will have impaired learning of the gambling task. Groups of schizophrenia patients treated with typical or atypical antipsychotics did not differ from each other on the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), Mini Mental State Exam (MMSE) or a number of indexes of the Wisconsin Card Sorting Task (WCST) but performed worse than normal controls on these instruments. In the first study, patients treated with typicals (n=20) but not atypicals (n=20) or normal controls (n=32) were impaired in probabilistic classification. In the second study, those treated with atypicals (n=18) but not typicals (n=18) or normal controls (n=18) were impaired in the gambling task. Results suggest that typical and atypical antipsychotics differentially affect nondeclarative memory mediated by different brain regions. PMID:12729880

  19. NOS1 ex1f-VNTR polymorphism affects prefrontal oxygenation during response inhibition tasks.

    PubMed

    Kopf, Juliane; Schecklmann, Martin; Hahn, Tim; Dieler, Alica C; Herrmann, Martin J; Fallgatter, Andreas J; Reif, Andreas

    2012-11-01

    Impulsivity is a trait shared by many psychiatric disorders and therefore a suitable intermediate phenotype for their underlying biological mechanisms. One of the molecular determinants involved is the NOS1 ex1f-VNTR, whose short variants are associated with a variety of impulsive behaviors. Fifty-six healthy controls were stratified into homozygous long (LL) (30 probands) and short (SS) (26 probands) allele groups. Subjects completed a combined stop-signal go/nogo task, while the oxygenation in the prefrontal cortex was measured with functional near-infrared spectroscopy. Electromyography was recorded to control for differences in muscle activity in the two inhibition tasks. Two questionnaires on impulsive traits were completed. Differences between the two tasks are shown by distinct activation patterns within the prefrontal cortex. The nogo task resulted mainly in the activation of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), whereas successful and unsuccessful inhibition in the stop-signal task elicited the predicted activity in the inferior frontal cortex (IFC). Although significant differences were found in neither the scores obtained on impulsivity-related questionnaires nor the behavioral data, the LL group displayed increased dlPFC activity during nogo trials and the predicted activation in the IFC during successful inhibition in the stop-signal task, while no significant activation was found in the SS group. Our data confirm an influence of NOS1 ex1f-VNTR on impulsivity, as carriers of the short risk allele exhibited diminished activity of (pre-)frontal brain regions during the inhibition in a stop-signal task. Impairment of prefrontal control with consecutive failure of inhibitory processes might underlie association findings reported previously.

  20. ERP measures of math anxiety: how math anxiety affects working memory and mental calculation tasks?

    PubMed Central

    Klados, Manousos A.; Simos, Panagiotis; Micheloyannis, Sifis; Margulies, Daniel; Bamidis, Panagiotis D.

    2015-01-01

    There have been several attempts to account for the impact of Mathematical Anxiety (MA) on brain activity with variable results. The present study examines the effects of MA on ERP amplitude during performance of simple arithmetic calculations and working memory tasks. Data were obtained from 32 university students as they solved four types of arithmetic problems (one- and two-digit addition and multiplication) and a working memory task comprised of three levels of difficulty (1, 2, and 3-back task). Compared to the Low-MA group, High-MA individuals demonstrated reduced ERP amplitude at frontocentral (between 180–320 ms) and centroparietal locations (between 380–420 ms). These effects were independent of task difficulty/complexity, individual performance, and general state/trait anxiety levels. Results support the hypothesis that higher levels of self-reported MA are associated with lower cortical activation during the early stages of the processing of numeric stimuli in the context of cognitive tasks. PMID:26578912

  1. ERP measures of math anxiety: how math anxiety affects working memory and mental calculation tasks?

    PubMed

    Klados, Manousos A; Simos, Panagiotis; Micheloyannis, Sifis; Margulies, Daniel; Bamidis, Panagiotis D

    2015-01-01

    There have been several attempts to account for the impact of Mathematical Anxiety (MA) on brain activity with variable results. The present study examines the effects of MA on ERP amplitude during performance of simple arithmetic calculations and working memory tasks. Data were obtained from 32 university students as they solved four types of arithmetic problems (one- and two-digit addition and multiplication) and a working memory task comprised of three levels of difficulty (1, 2, and 3-back task). Compared to the Low-MA group, High-MA individuals demonstrated reduced ERP amplitude at frontocentral (between 180-320 ms) and centroparietal locations (between 380-420 ms). These effects were independent of task difficulty/complexity, individual performance, and general state/trait anxiety levels. Results support the hypothesis that higher levels of self-reported MA are associated with lower cortical activation during the early stages of the processing of numeric stimuli in the context of cognitive tasks. PMID:26578912

  2. Consecutive repetition effects for affective-distractor pictures in a visual oddball task: electrophysiological evidence from an ERP study.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Donghong; Zheng, Xifu; Li, Fei

    2013-06-23

    Although repeated affective stimuli can promote habituation, most studies of event-related potentials (ERPs) have focused on habituation to targets that are repeated non-consecutively. However, the neural mechanisms underlying the consecutive repetition effects of affective-distractor stimuli are unclear. Using a three-stimulus oddball task (standard vs. target vs. distractor ratio: 60%:20%:20%) and measures of ERPs, we assessed the repetition effects of affective-distractor pictures that were repeated consecutively. Participants (N=16) were asked to distinguish the size of a geometric surface; they were asked to selectively respond to the target stimuli (larger geometric surfaces) and to ignore the standard stimuli (smaller geometric surfaces) and affective-distractor pictures. Forty pictures portraying a neutral affect and 40 pictures portraying a negative affect were taken from the Chinese Affective Picture System. Each picture was pseudo-randomly selected and consecutively repeated three times, and ERPs were recorded for the repeated affective-distractor pictures. Stimulus repetition was associated with amplitude increases for P3 and amplitude decreases for N1 and N2 as the presentations proceeded. Peak latency remained stable. The P2, N2, and P3 amplitudes were greater during negative vs. neutral pictures. The affective effects did not interact with stimulus repetition at any latency range. The results suggest that consecutive repetition and affective stimuli modulate ERP outcomes independently.

  3. Task- and resting-state functional connectivity of brain regions related to affection and susceptible to concurrent cognitive demand

    PubMed Central

    Kellermann, Tanja S.; Caspers, Svenja; Fox, Peter T.; Zilles, Karl; Roski, Christian; Laird, Angela R.; Turetsky, Bruce I.; Eickhoff, Simon B.

    2016-01-01

    A recent fMRI-study revealed neural responses for affective processing of stimuli for which overt attention irrespective of stimulus valence was required in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and bilateral amygdala (AMY): activation decreased with increasing cognitive demand. To further characterize the network putatively related to this attenuation, we here characterized these regions with respect to their functional properties and connectivity patterns in task-dependent and task-independent states. All experiments of the BrainMap database activating the seed regions OFC and bilateral AMY were identified. Their functional characteristics were quantitatively inferred using the behavioral meta-data of the retrieved experiments. Task-dependent functional connectivity was characterized by meta-analytic connectivity modeling (MACM) of significant co-activations with these seed regions. Task-independent resting-state functional connectivity analysis in a sample of 100 healthy subjects complemented these analyses. All three seed regions co-activated with subgenual cingulum (SGC), precuneus (PCu) and nucleus accumbens (NAcc) in the task-dependent MACM analysis. Task-independent resting-state connectivity revealed significant coupling of the seeds only with the SGC, but not the PCu and the NAcc. The former region (SGC) moreover was shown to feature significant resting-state connectivity with all other regions implicated in the network connected to regions where emotional processing may be modulated by a cognitive distractor. Based on its functional profile and connectivity pattern, we suggest that the SGC might serve as a key hub in the identified network, as such linking autobiographic information [PCu], reward [NAcc], (reinforce) values [OFC] and emotional significance [AMY]. Such a role, in turn, may allow the SGC to influence the OFC and AMY to modulate affective processing. PMID:23370055

  4. Abacus Training Affects Math and Task Switching Abilities and Modulates Their Relationships in Chinese Children.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chunjie; Geng, Fengji; Yao, Yuan; Weng, Jian; Hu, Yuzheng; Chen, Feiyan

    2015-01-01

    Our previous work demonstrated that abacus-based mental calculation (AMC), a traditional Chinese calculation method, could help children improve their math abilities (e.g. basic arithmetical ability) and executive function (e.g. working memory). This study further examined the effects of long-term AMC training on math ability in visual-spatial domain and the task switching component of executive function. More importantly, this study investigated whether AMC training modulated the relationship between math abilities and task switching. The participants were seventy 7-year-old children who were randomly assigned into AMC and control groups at primary school entry. Children in AMC group received 2-hour AMC training every week since primary school entry. On the contrary, children in the control group had never received any AMC training. Math and task switching abilities were measured one year and three years respectively after AMC training began. The results showed that AMC children performed better than their peers on math abilities in arithmetical and visual-spatial domains. In addition, AMC group responded faster than control group in the switching task, while no group difference was found in switch cost. Most interestingly, group difference was present in the relationships between math abilities and switch cost. These results implied the effect of AMC training on math abilities as well as its relationship with executive function. PMID:26444689

  5. Gender and Prior Science Achievement Affect Categorization on a Procedural Learning Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hong, Jon-Chao; Lu, Chow-Chin; Wang, Jen-Lian; Liao, Shin; Wu, Ming-Ray; Hwang, Ming-Yueh; Lin, Pei-Hsin

    2013-01-01

    Categorization is one of the main mental processes by which perception and conception develop. Nevertheless, categorization receives little attention with the development of critical thinking in Taiwan elementary schools. Thus, the present study investigates the effect that individual differences have on performing categorization tasks.…

  6. Abacus Training Affects Math and Task Switching Abilities and Modulates Their Relationships in Chinese Children.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chunjie; Geng, Fengji; Yao, Yuan; Weng, Jian; Hu, Yuzheng; Chen, Feiyan

    2015-01-01

    Our previous work demonstrated that abacus-based mental calculation (AMC), a traditional Chinese calculation method, could help children improve their math abilities (e.g. basic arithmetical ability) and executive function (e.g. working memory). This study further examined the effects of long-term AMC training on math ability in visual-spatial domain and the task switching component of executive function. More importantly, this study investigated whether AMC training modulated the relationship between math abilities and task switching. The participants were seventy 7-year-old children who were randomly assigned into AMC and control groups at primary school entry. Children in AMC group received 2-hour AMC training every week since primary school entry. On the contrary, children in the control group had never received any AMC training. Math and task switching abilities were measured one year and three years respectively after AMC training began. The results showed that AMC children performed better than their peers on math abilities in arithmetical and visual-spatial domains. In addition, AMC group responded faster than control group in the switching task, while no group difference was found in switch cost. Most interestingly, group difference was present in the relationships between math abilities and switch cost. These results implied the effect of AMC training on math abilities as well as its relationship with executive function.

  7. Abacus Training Affects Math and Task Switching Abilities and Modulates Their Relationships in Chinese Children

    PubMed Central

    Yao, Yuan; Weng, Jian; Hu, Yuzheng; Chen, Feiyan

    2015-01-01

    Our previous work demonstrated that abacus-based mental calculation (AMC), a traditional Chinese calculation method, could help children improve their math abilities (e.g. basic arithmetical ability) and executive function (e.g. working memory). This study further examined the effects of long-term AMC training on math ability in visual-spatial domain and the task switching component of executive function. More importantly, this study investigated whether AMC training modulated the relationship between math abilities and task switching. The participants were seventy 7-year-old children who were randomly assigned into AMC and control groups at primary school entry. Children in AMC group received 2-hour AMC training every week since primary school entry. On the contrary, children in the control group had never received any AMC training. Math and task switching abilities were measured one year and three years respectively after AMC training began. The results showed that AMC children performed better than their peers on math abilities in arithmetical and visual-spatial domains. In addition, AMC group responded faster than control group in the switching task, while no group difference was found in switch cost. Most interestingly, group difference was present in the relationships between math abilities and switch cost. These results implied the effect of AMC training on math abilities as well as its relationship with executive function. PMID:26444689

  8. How Stimulus and Task Complexity Affect Monitoring in High-Functioning Adults with Autism Spectrum Disorder

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koolen, Sophieke; Vissers, Constance Th. W. M.; Egger, Jos I. M.; Verhoeven, Ludo

    2014-01-01

    The present study examined whether individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are able to update and monitor working memory representations of visual input, and whether performance is influenced by stimulus and task complexity. 15 high-functioning adults with ASD and 15 controls were asked to allocate either elements of abstract figures or…

  9. Factors affecting accuracy of perception on a task requiring the ability to identify viewpoints

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eliot, John; Dayton, C. Mitchell

    1976-01-01

    This study was undertaken to determine the relative contribution of age, sex, and three stimulus features (board shape, block arrangement, and block shape) to perceptual accuracy on 39 board/block adaptations of Piaget's three-mountain task. (Author/SB)

  10. Short-term visual deprivation reduces interference effects of task-irrelevant facial expressions on affective prosody judgments.

    PubMed

    Fengler, Ineke; Nava, Elena; Röder, Brigitte

    2015-01-01

    Several studies have suggested that neuroplasticity can be triggered by short-term visual deprivation in healthy adults. Specifically, these studies have provided evidence that visual deprivation reversibly affects basic perceptual abilities. The present study investigated the long-lasting effects of short-term visual deprivation on emotion perception. To this aim, we visually deprived a group of young healthy adults, age-matched with a group of non-deprived controls, for 3 h and tested them before and after visual deprivation (i.e., after 8 h on average and at 4 week follow-up) on an audio-visual (i.e., faces and voices) emotion discrimination task. To observe changes at the level of basic perceptual skills, we additionally employed a simple audio-visual (i.e., tone bursts and light flashes) discrimination task and two unimodal (one auditory and one visual) perceptual threshold measures. During the 3 h period, both groups performed a series of auditory tasks. To exclude the possibility that changes in emotion discrimination may emerge as a consequence of the exposure to auditory stimulation during the 3 h stay in the dark, we visually deprived an additional group of age-matched participants who concurrently performed unrelated (i.e., tactile) tasks to the later tested abilities. The two visually deprived groups showed enhanced affective prosodic discrimination abilities in the context of incongruent facial expressions following the period of visual deprivation; this effect was partially maintained until follow-up. By contrast, no changes were observed in affective facial expression discrimination and in the basic perception tasks in any group. These findings suggest that short-term visual deprivation per se triggers a reweighting of visual and auditory emotional cues, which seems to possibly prevail for longer durations.

  11. ONE NIGHT OF SLEEP DEPRIVATION AFFECTS REACTION TIME, BUT NOT INTERFERENCE OR FACILITATION IN A STROOP TASK

    PubMed Central

    Cain, Sean W.; Silva, Edward J.; Chang, Anne-Marie; Ronda, Joseph M.; Duffy, Jeanne F.

    2011-01-01

    The Stroop color-naming task is one of the most widely studied tasks involving the inhibition of a prepotent response, regarded as an executive function. Several studies have examined performance on versions of the Stroop task under conditions of acute sleep deprivation. Though these studies revealed effects on Stroop performance, the results often do not differentiate between general effects of sleep deprivation on performance and effects specifically on interference in the Stroop task. To examine the effect of prolonged wakefulness on performance on the Stroop task, we studied participants in a 40-hour “constant routine” protocol during which they remained awake in constant conditions and performed a Stroop color-naming task every two hours. We found that reaction time was slowest when the color and word did not match (incongruent), fastest when the color and word did match (congruent), and intermediate when participants named the color of the non-word stimulus (neutral). Performance on all three trial types degraded significantly as a function of time awake. Extended wakefulness did not significantly change the additional time needed respond when the color and word did not match (Stroop interference), nor did it change the amount of facilitation when color and word matched. These results indicate that one night of sleep deprivation influences performance on the Stroop task by an overall increase in response time, but does not appear to impact the underlying processes of interference or facilitation. The results suggest that the degree to which an “executive function” is affected by sleep deprivation may depend on the particular executive function studied and the degree to which it is subserved by the prefrontal cortex. PMID:21477910

  12. One night of sleep deprivation affects reaction time, but not interference or facilitation in a Stroop task.

    PubMed

    Cain, Sean W; Silva, Edward J; Chang, Anne-Marie; Ronda, Joseph M; Duffy, Jeanne F

    2011-06-01

    The Stroop color-naming task is one of the most widely studied tasks involving the inhibition of a prepotent response, regarded as an executive function. Several studies have examined performance on versions of the Stroop task under conditions of acute sleep deprivation. Though these studies revealed effects on Stroop performance, the results often do not differentiate between general effects of sleep deprivation on performance and effects specifically on interference in the Stroop task. To examine the effect of prolonged wakefulness on performance on the Stroop task, we studied participants in a 40-h "constant routine" protocol during which they remained awake in constant conditions and performed a Stroop color-naming task every two hours. We found that reaction time was slowest when the color and word did not match (incongruent), fastest when the color and word did match (congruent), and intermediate when participants named the color of the non-word stimulus (neutral). Performance on all three trial types degraded significantly as a function of time awake. Extended wakefulness did not significantly change the additional time needed to respond when the color and word did not match (Stroop interference), nor did it change the amount of facilitation when color and word matched. These results indicate that one night of sleep deprivation influences performance on the Stroop task by an overall increase in response time, but does not appear to impact the underlying processes of interference or facilitation. The results suggest that the degree to which an "executive function" is affected by sleep deprivation may depend on the particular executive function studied and the degree to which it is subserved by the prefrontal cortex.

  13. Affective decision-making on the Iowa gambling task in children and adolescents with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders.

    PubMed

    Kully-Martens, Katrina; Treit, Sarah; Pei, Jacqueline; Rasmussen, Carmen

    2013-02-01

    Individuals with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) have difficulties with cognitive-based executive function (EF) tasks. The goal of the present study was to determine if children with FASD have impairments on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), which measures affective EF (i.e., decision-making and risk-taking). Individuals with FASD (n = 31) and healthy controls (n = 31), aged 8-17 completed the IGT. Children with FASD were significantly impaired on the IGT compared to controls. Over the course of the task, control scores improved, whereas children with FASD exhibited an overall decrease in scores. Scores increased significantly with age in the control group but did not differ significantly with age for FASD participants. Children with FASD exhibited decision-making and risk-taking impairments on a hot EF task. Children with FASD did not appear to learn from negative experiences and shift to making more positive decisions over time and their performance did not improve with age. The implications of poor task performance and a lack of age-related findings in children with FASD are discussed.

  14. Alone but feeling no pain: Effects of social exclusion on physical pain tolerance and pain threshold, affective forecasting, and interpersonal empathy.

    PubMed

    DeWall, C Nathan; Baumeister, Roy F

    2006-07-01

    Prior findings of emotional numbness (rather than distress) among socially excluded persons led the authors to investigate whether exclusion causes a far-reaching insensitivity to both physical and emotional pain. Experiments 1-4 showed that receiving an ostensibly diagnostic forecast of a lonesome future life reduced sensitivity to physical pain, as indicated by both (higher) thresholds and tolerance. Exclusion also caused emotional insensitivity, as indicated by reductions in affective forecasting of joy or woe over a future football outcome (Experiment 3), as well as lesser empathizing with another person's suffering from either romantic breakup (Experiment 4) or a broken leg (Experiment 5). The insensitivities to pain and emotion were highly intercorrelated. PMID:16834476

  15. TRAVEL FORECASTER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mauldin, L. E.

    1994-01-01

    Business travel planning within an organization is often a time-consuming task. Travel Forecaster is a menu-driven, easy-to-use program which plans, forecasts cost, and tracks actual vs. planned cost for business-related travel of a division or branch of an organization and compiles this information into a database to aid the travel planner. The program's ability to handle multiple trip entries makes it a valuable time-saving device. Travel Forecaster takes full advantage of relational data base properties so that information that remains constant, such as per diem rates and airline fares (which are unique for each city), needs entering only once. A typical entry would include selection with the mouse of the traveler's name and destination city from pop-up lists, and typed entries for number of travel days and purpose of the trip. Multiple persons can be selected from the pop-up lists and multiple trips are accommodated by entering the number of days by each appropriate month on the entry form. An estimated travel cost is not required of the user as it is calculated by a Fourth Dimension formula. With this information, the program can produce output of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for either organization or sub-entity of an organization; or produce outputs of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for international-only travel. It will also provide monthly and cumulative formats of planned vs. actual outputs in data or graph form. Travel Forecaster users can do custom queries to search and sort information in the database, and it can create custom reports with the user-friendly report generator. Travel Forecaster 1.1 is a database program for use with Fourth Dimension Runtime 2.1.1. It requires a Macintosh Plus running System 6.0.3 or later, 2Mb of RAM and a hard disk. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. Travel Forecaster was developed in 1991. Macintosh is a registered trademark of

  16. Does Target Object Processing Affect Reaction Times in Simple Detection Spatial Cueing Tasks?

    PubMed

    Collings, Raymond D; Eaton, Leslie G

    2016-04-01

    The current study tested the effect of varying target type and target set size during simple detection versions of Posner's exogenous spatial cueing task. The four target conditions consisted of a single letter, a single number, one of four possible letters, or one of four possible numbers. Responses were faster for numbers than for letters, but only when the cue-target lag was short, the target set included more than one potential number, and the cue and target appeared in different locations. These findings suggest that even during detection tasks, responses are influenced by the object features of the target. Methodological implications for spatial cueing studies and other types of visual perception research were discussed.

  17. Motion coordination affects movement parameters in a joint pick-and-place task.

    PubMed

    Vesper, Cordula; Soutschek, Alexander; Schubo, Anna

    2009-12-01

    This study examined influences of social context on movement parameters in a pick-and-place task. Participants' motion trajectories were recorded while they performed sequences of natural movements either working side-by-side with a partner or alone. It was expected that movement parameters would be specifically adapted to the joint condition to overcome the difficulties arising from the requirement to coordinate with another person. To disentangle effects based on participants' effort to coordinate their movements from effects merely due to the other's presence, a condition was included where only one person performed the task while being observed by the partner. Results indicate that participants adapted their movements temporally and spatially to the joint action situation: Overall movement duration was shorter, and mean and maximum velocity was higher when actually working together than when working alone. Pick-to-place trajectories were also shifted away from the partner in spatial coordinates. The partner's presence as such did not have an impact on movement parameters. These findings are interpreted as evidence for the use of implicit strategies to facilitate movement coordination in joint action tasks.

  18. Categorization Method Affects the Typicality Effect: ERP Evidence from a Category-Inference Task

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiaoxi; Tao, Yun; Tempel, Tobias; Xu, Yuan; Li, Siqi; Tian, Yu; Li, Hong

    2016-01-01

    The typicality effect during categorization describes a phenomenon whereby typical items are more easily judged as members of a category than atypical items. Prior studies of the typicality effect have often used an inclusion task, which asks participants to assess whether an item belongs to a category. However, the correct exclusion of non-members is also an important component of effective categorization, which has yet to be directly investigated. Thus, the present study investigated how categorization method (inclusion vs. exclusion) modulates the typicality effect via behavioral and electrophysiological measures. Thirty-two participants (16 in the inclusion and 16 in the exclusion group) were shown six consecutive words that all shared one feature. Then, a seventh word was presented. The inclusion group judged whether the seventh word also possessed the feature, whereas the exclusion group judged whether the word did not possess the feature. The seventh word could be typical, atypical, or a nonmember of the category. Behavioral and event-related potential (ERP) data were collected. Behavioral results showed that the two groups did not differ in accuracy. However, typical items elicited shorter response times than atypical items, and this effect was more pronounced in the inclusion than the exclusion group. With regard to ERPs, interactions between item type and group were shown for the P2, N2, and N400 periods. Within the inclusion group, a typicality effect (indicated by a main effect of item type) was present in the P2 and N400 time windows, while the exclusion group elicited a typicality effect only in the N2 time window. These results provide electrophysiological evidence that an inclusion judgment task is more sensitive to category typicality than is an exclusion task. PMID:26925011

  19. Categorization Method Affects the Typicality Effect: ERP Evidence from a Category-Inference Task.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiaoxi; Tao, Yun; Tempel, Tobias; Xu, Yuan; Li, Siqi; Tian, Yu; Li, Hong

    2016-01-01

    The typicality effect during categorization describes a phenomenon whereby typical items are more easily judged as members of a category than atypical items. Prior studies of the typicality effect have often used an inclusion task, which asks participants to assess whether an item belongs to a category. However, the correct exclusion of non-members is also an important component of effective categorization, which has yet to be directly investigated. Thus, the present study investigated how categorization method (inclusion vs. exclusion) modulates the typicality effect via behavioral and electrophysiological measures. Thirty-two participants (16 in the inclusion and 16 in the exclusion group) were shown six consecutive words that all shared one feature. Then, a seventh word was presented. The inclusion group judged whether the seventh word also possessed the feature, whereas the exclusion group judged whether the word did not possess the feature. The seventh word could be typical, atypical, or a nonmember of the category. Behavioral and event-related potential (ERP) data were collected. Behavioral results showed that the two groups did not differ in accuracy. However, typical items elicited shorter response times than atypical items, and this effect was more pronounced in the inclusion than the exclusion group. With regard to ERPs, interactions between item type and group were shown for the P2, N2, and N400 periods. Within the inclusion group, a typicality effect (indicated by a main effect of item type) was present in the P2 and N400 time windows, while the exclusion group elicited a typicality effect only in the N2 time window. These results provide electrophysiological evidence that an inclusion judgment task is more sensitive to category typicality than is an exclusion task.

  20. Causal attribution and affective response as mediated by task performance and self-acceptance.

    PubMed

    Green, T D; Bailey, R C; Zinser, O; Williams, D E

    1994-12-01

    Predictions derived from cognitive consistency theories, self-esteem theories, and ego-serving-bias theory concerning how students would make attributional and affective responses to their academic performance were investigated. 202 university students completed a measure of self-acceptance of their college ability and made attributional and affective responses to an hypothetical examination performance. Analyses showed that students receiving positive feedback perceived greater internal causality and responded with greater positive affect than students receiving negative feedback. Self-acceptance did not moderate the attributions or affective reactions. The results supported the ego-serving-bias theory and provided partial support for self-esteem theory. Findings did not support predictions from cognitive-consistency theory.

  1. Retrieval Expectations Affect False Recollection: Insights from a Criterial Recollection Task

    PubMed Central

    Gallo, David A.

    2013-01-01

    People use retrieval expectations to guide the accuracy of recollection attempts. This retrieval monitoring process minimizes illusory or false recollection, especially when the to-be-remembered events are distinctive. Our work with a criterial recollection task reveals that this monitoring process primarily depends on qualitative features of recollected information, an aspect of memory that can be dissociated from traditional measures of recollection frequency and familiarity. Neuroimaging and brain damage studies further indicate that this monitoring process relies on prefrontal regions that coordinate memory retrieval. This research helps explain why older adults are sometimes more susceptible to false recollection. More generally, this research highlights the importance of different kinds of recollected events and corresponding retrieval expectations in determining memory accuracy. PMID:24659863

  2. Human factors with nonhumans - Factors that affect computer-task performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Washburn, David A.

    1992-01-01

    There are two general strategies that may be employed for 'doing human factors research with nonhuman animals'. First, one may use the methods of traditional human factors investigations to examine the nonhuman animal-to-machine interface. Alternatively, one might use performance by nonhuman animals as a surrogate for or model of performance by a human operator. Each of these approaches is illustrated with data in the present review. Chronic ambient noise was found to have a significant but inconsequential effect on computer-task performance by rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta). Additional data supported the generality of findings such as these to humans, showing that rhesus monkeys are appropriate models of human psychomotor performance. It is argued that ultimately the interface between comparative psychology and technology will depend on the coordinated use of both strategies of investigation.

  3. [The attentional blink effect: influence of negative words in an affective valence categorization task].

    PubMed

    Vaquero, Joaquín M M; Frese, Bettina; Lupiáñez, Juan; Megías, Jesús L; Acosta, Alberto

    2006-08-01

    In this study, we explored the emotional modulation of the Attentional Blink effect. In a Rapid Serial Visual Presentation procedure, a word (Target 1), either positive, negative or neutral, was followed by the word "WATER" (Target 2) in one half of the trials. The task included two conditions. In one of them, participants only had to detect the word "WATER". In double-response trials, participants also categorized Target 1's valence. Results showed that the detection of Target 2 was impaired in the double-response condition, this impairment being greater when negative word appeared as Target 1, as compared to positive and neutral words. However, these effects were independent on the Anxiety-Trait levels of participants. Overall, the pattern of data suggests that cognitive resources are focused on negative stimuli when their negative valence is emotionally salient enough.

  4. Differences in cortical activity between methamphetamine-dependent and healthy individuals performing a facial affect matching task.

    PubMed

    Payer, Doris E; Lieberman, Matthew D; Monterosso, John R; Xu, Jiansong; Fong, Timothy W; London, Edythe D

    2008-01-11

    As individuals who abuse methamphetamine (MA) often exhibit socially maladaptive behaviors such as violence and aggression, it is possible that they respond abnormally to social cues. To investigate this issue, we exposed 12 MA-dependent participants (abstinent 5-16 days) and 12 healthy comparison participants to fearful and angry faces while they performed an affect matching task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Although the groups did not differ in task performance, the healthy participants showed more task-related activity than the MA-dependent participants in a set of cortical regions consisting of the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC), temporoparietal junction (TPJ), anterior and posterior temporal cortex, and fusiform gyrus in the right hemisphere, and the cuneus in the left hemisphere. In contrast, the MA-dependent participants showed more task-related activity than the healthy participants in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC). As expected, the task elicited activation of the amygdala in both groups; however, contrary to expectation, we found no difference between groups in this activation. Dorsal ACC hyperactivity, along with high self-ratings of hostility and interpersonal sensitivity in the MA-dependent group, suggest a hyper-sensitivity to socially threatening cues in the MA-dependent participants, while lower VLPFC activation could point to a deficit in integrating socio-emotional information and/or regulating this limbic hyperactivity. Additional activation differences in neural circuitry related to social cognition (TPJ, anterior, and posterior temporal cortex) suggest further socio-emotional deficits. Together, the results point to cortical abnormalities that could underlie the socially inappropriate behaviors often shown by individuals who abuse MA. PMID:17964741

  5. Affective Priming in a Lexical Decision Task: Is There an Effect of Words' Concreteness?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ferré, Pilar; Sánchez-Casas, Rosa

    2014-01-01

    Affective priming occurs when responses to a target are facilitated when it is preceded by a prime congruent in valence. We conducted two experiments in order to test whether this is a genuine emotional effect or rather it can be accounted for by semantic relatedness between primes and targets. With this aim, semantic relatedness and emotional…

  6. Spatiotemporal Object History Affects the Selection of Task-Relevant Properties

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schreij, Daniel; Olivers, Christian N. L.

    2013-01-01

    For stable perception, we maintain mental representations of objects across space and time. What information is linked to such a representation? In this study, we extended our work showing that the spatiotemporal history of an object affects the way the object is attended the next time it is encountered. Observers conducted a visual search for a…

  7. Executive Functions are not Affected by 24 Hours of Sleep Deprivation: A Color-Word Stroop Task Study

    PubMed Central

    Dixit, Abhinav; Mittal, Tushar

    2015-01-01

    Background: Sleep is an important factor affecting cognitive performance. Sleep deprivation results in fatigue, lack of concentration, confusion and sleepiness along with anxiety, depression and irritability. Sleep deprivation can have serious consequences in professions like armed forces and medicine where quick decisions and actions need to be taken. Color-Word Stroop task is one of the reliable tests to assess attention and it analyzes the processing of information in two dimensions i.e., reading of words and naming of colour. The evidence regarding the effect of sleep deprivation on Stroop interference is conflicting. The present study evaluated the effect of 24 hours of sleep deprivation on reaction time and interference in Stroop task. Materials and Methods: The present study was done on 30 healthy male medical student volunteers in the age group of 18-25 years after taking their consent and clearance from Institute Ethics Committee. Recordings of Stroop task were at three times: baseline (between 7-9 am), after 12 hours (7-9 pm) and after 24 hours (7-9 am, next day). The subjects were allowed to perform normal daily activities. Results: The study revealed a significant increase in reaction time after 24 hours of sleep deprivation in comparison to baseline and after 12 hours of sleep deprivation. There was no significant change in interference and facilitation after sleep deprivation in comparison to baseline. The number of errors also did not show any significant change after sleep deprivation. Conclusion: The study indicated that there was slowing of responses without change in executive functions after 24 hours of sleep deprivation. It is probable that 24 hours of sleep deprivation does not bring about change in areas of brain affecting executive functions in healthy individuals who have normal sleep cycle. The present study indicated that in professions like armed forces and medicine working 24 hours at a stretch can lead to decrease in motor responses

  8. Hand proximity differentially affects visual working memory for color and orientation in a binding task.

    PubMed

    Kelly, Shane P; Brockmole, James R

    2014-01-01

    Observers determined whether two sequentially presented arrays of six lines were the same or different. Differences, when present, involved either a swap in the color of two lines or a swap in the orientation of two lines. Thus, accurate change detection required the binding of color and orientation information for each line within visual working memory. Holding viewing distance constant, the proximity of the arrays to the hands was manipulated. Placing the hands near the to-be-remembered array decreased participants' ability to remember color information, but increased their ability to remember orientation information. This pair of results indicates that hand proximity differentially affects the processing of various types of visual information, a conclusion broadly consistent with functional and anatomical differences in the magnocellular and parvocellular pathways. It further indicates that hand proximity affects the likelihood that various object features will be encoded into integrated object files. PMID:24795671

  9. Functional Correlates of childhood maltreatment and symptom severity during affective theory of mind tasks in chronic depression.

    PubMed

    Hentze, Charlotte; Walter, Henrik; Schramm, Elisabeth; Drost, Sarah; Schoepf, Dieter; Fangmeier, Thomas; Mattern, Margarete; Normann, Claus; Zobel, Ingo; Schnell, Knut

    2016-04-30

    Among multiple etiological factors of depressive disorders, childhood maltreatment (CM) gains increasing attention as it confers susceptibility for depression and predisposes to chronicity. CM assumedly inhibits social-cognitive development, entailing interactional problems as observed in chronic depression (CD), especially in affective theory of mind (ToM). However, the extent of CM among CD patients varies notably as does the severity of depressive symptoms. We tested whether the extent of CM or depressive symptoms correlates with affective ToM functions in CD patients. Regional brain activation measured by functional magnetic resonance imaging during an affective ToM task was tested for correlation with CM, assessed by the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ), and symptom severity, assessed by the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS), in 25 unmedicated CD patients (mean age 41.52, SD 11.13). Amygdala activation during affective ToM correlated positively with CTQ total scores, while (para)hippocampal response correlated negatively with MADRS scores. Our findings suggest that differential amygdala activation in affective ToM in CD is substantially modulated by previous CM and not by the pathophysiological equivalents of current depressive symptoms. This illustrates the amygdala's role in the mediation of CM effects. The negative correlation of differential (para)hippocampal activation and depressive symptom severity indicates reduced integration of interactional experiences during depressive states.

  10. Affective decision making under uncertainty during a plausible aviation task: an fMRI study.

    PubMed

    Causse, Mickaël; Péran, Patrice; Dehais, Frédéric; Caravasso, Chiara Falletta; Zeffiro, Thomas; Sabatini, Umberto; Pastor, Josette

    2013-05-01

    In aeronautics, plan continuation error (PCE) represents failure to revise a flight plan despite emerging evidence suggesting that it is no longer safe. Assuming that PCE may be associated with a shift from cold to hot reasoning, we hypothesized that this transition may result from a large range of strong negative emotional influences linked with the decision to abort a landing and circle for a repeat attempt, referred to as a "go-around". We investigated this hypothesis by combining functional neuroimaging with an ecologically valid aviation task performed under contextual variation in incentive and situational uncertainty. Our goal was to identify regional brain activity related to the sorts of conservative or liberal decision-making strategies engaged when participants were both exposed to a financial payoff matrix constructed to bias responses in favor of landing acceptance, while they were simultaneously experiencing maximum levels of uncertainty related to high levels of stimulus ambiguity. Combined with the observed behavioral outcomes, our neuroimaging results revealed a shift from cold to hot decision making in response to high uncertainty when participants were exposed to the financial incentive. Most notably, while we observed activity increases in response to uncertainty in many frontal regions such as dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), less overall activity was observed when the reward was combined with uncertainty. Moreover, participants with poor decision making, quantified as a lower discriminability index d', exhibited riskier behavior coupled with lower activity in the right DLPFC. These outcomes suggest a disruptive effect of biased financial incentive and high uncertainty on the rational decision-making neural network, and consequently, on decision relevance.

  11. Arm dominance affects feedforward strategy more than feedback sensitivity during a postural task.

    PubMed

    Walker, Elise H E; Perreault, Eric J

    2015-07-01

    Handedness is a feature of human motor control that is still not fully understood. Recent work has demonstrated that the dominant and nondominant arm each excel at different behaviors and has proposed that this behavioral asymmetry arises from lateralization in the cerebral cortex: the dominant side specializes in predictive trajectory control, while the nondominant side is specialized for impedance control. Long-latency stretch reflexes are an automatic mechanism for regulating posture and have been shown to contribute to limb impedance. To determine whether long-latency reflexes also contribute to asymmetric motor behavior in the upper limbs, we investigated the effect of arm dominance on stretch reflexes during a postural task that required varying degrees of impedance control. Our results demonstrated slightly but significantly larger reflex responses in the biarticular muscles of the nondominant arm, as would be consistent with increased impedance control. These differences were attributed solely to higher levels of voluntary background activity in the nondominant biarticular muscles, indicating that feedforward strategies for postural stability may differ between arms. Reflex sensitivity, which was defined as the magnitude of the reflex response for matched levels of background activity, was not significantly different between arms for a broad subject population ranging from 23 to 51 years of age. These results indicate that inter-arm differences in feedforward strategies are more influential during posture than differences in feedback sensitivity, in a broad subject population. Interestingly, restricting our analysis to subjects under 40 years of age revealed a small increase in long-latency reflex sensitivity in the nondominant arm relative to the dominant arm. Though our subject numbers were small for this secondary analysis, it suggests that further studies may be required to assess the influence of reflex lateralization throughout development.

  12. Arm Dominance Affects Feedforward Strategy more than Feedback Sensitivity during a Postural Task

    PubMed Central

    Walker, Elise H. E.; Perreault, Eric J.

    2015-01-01

    Handedness is a feature of human motor control that is still not fully understood. Recent work has demonstrated that the dominant and nondominant arm each excel at different behaviors, and has proposed that this behavioral asymmetry arises from lateralization in the cerebral cortex: the dominant side specializes in predictive trajectory control, while the nondominant side is specialized for impedance control. Long-latency stretch reflexes are an automatic mechanism for regulating posture, and have been shown to contribute to limb impedance. To determine whether long-latency reflexes also contribute to asymmetric motor behavior in the upper limbs, we investigated the effect of arm dominance on stretch reflexes during a postural task that required varying degrees of impedance control. Our results demonstrated slightly but significantly larger reflex responses in the biarticular muscles of the nondominant arm, as would be consistent with increased impedance control. These differences were attributed solely to higher levels of voluntary background activity in the nondominant biarticular muscles, indicating that feedforward strategies for postural stability may differ between arms. Reflex sensitivity, which was defined as the magnitude of the reflex response for matched levels of background activity, was not significantly different between arms for a broad subject population ranging from 23–51 years of age. These results indicate that inter-arm differences in feedforward strategies are more influential during posture than differences in feedback sensitivity, in a broad subject population. Interestingly, restricting our analysis to subjects under 40 years of age revealed a small increase in long-latency reflex sensitivity in the nondominant arm relative to the dominant arm. Though our subject numbers were small for this secondary analysis, it suggests that further studies may be required to assess the influence of reflex lateralization throughout development. PMID

  13. Food's visually perceived fat content affects discrimination speed in an orthogonal spatial task.

    PubMed

    Harrar, Vanessa; Toepel, Ulrike; Murray, Micah M; Spence, Charles

    2011-10-01

    Choosing what to eat is a complex activity for humans. Determining a food's pleasantness requires us to combine information about what is available at a given time with knowledge of the food's palatability, texture, fat content, and other nutritional information. It has been suggested that humans may have an implicit knowledge of a food's fat content based on its appearance; Toepel et al. (Neuroimage 44:967-974, 2009) reported visual-evoked potential modulations after participants viewed images of high-energy, high-fat food (HF), as compared to viewing low-fat food (LF). In the present study, we investigated whether there are any immediate behavioural consequences of these modulations for human performance. HF, LF, or non-food (NF) images were used to exogenously direct participants' attention to either the left or the right. Next, participants made speeded elevation discrimination responses (up vs. down) to visual targets presented either above or below the midline (and at one of three stimulus onset asynchronies: 150, 300, or 450 ms). Participants responded significantly more rapidly following the presentation of a HF image than following the presentation of either LF or NF images, despite the fact that the identity of the images was entirely task-irrelevant. Similar results were found when comparing response speeds following images of high-carbohydrate (HC) food items to low-carbohydrate (LC) food items. These results support the view that people rapidly process (i.e. within a few hundred milliseconds) the fat/carbohydrate/energy value or, perhaps more generally, the pleasantness of food. Potentially as a result of HF/HC food items being more pleasant and thus having a higher incentive value, it seems as though seeing these foods results in a response readiness, or an overall alerting effect, in the human brain.

  14. Identity-level representations affect unfamiliar face matching performance in sequential but not simultaneous tasks.

    PubMed

    Menon, Nadia; White, David; Kemp, Richard I

    2015-01-01

    According to cognitive and neurological models of the face-processing system, faces are represented at two levels of abstraction. First, image-based pictorial representations code a particular instance of a face and include information that is unrelated to identity-such as lighting, pose, and expression. Second, at a more abstract level, identity-specific representations combine information from various encounters with a single face. Here we tested whether identity-level representations mediate unfamiliar face matching performance. Across three experiments we manipulated identity attributions to pairs of target images and measured the effect on subsequent identification decisions. Participants were instructed that target images were either two photos of the same person (1ID condition) or photos of two different people (2ID condition). This manipulation consistently affected performance in sequential matching: 1ID instructions improved accuracy on "match" trials and caused participants to adopt a more liberal response bias than the 2ID condition. However, this manipulation did not affect performance in simultaneous matching. We conclude that identity-level representations, generated in working memory, influence the amount of variation tolerated between images, when making identity judgements in sequential face matching. PMID:25686094

  15. The dual task-cost of standing balance affects quality of life in mildly disabled MS people.

    PubMed

    Castelli, Letizia; De Luca, Francesca; Marchetti, Maria Rita; Sellitto, Giovanni; Fanelli, Fulvia; Prosperini, Luca

    2016-05-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the correlations between the dual-task cost (DTC) of standing balance and quality of life (QoL) in mildly disabled patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). In this cross-sectional study, patients affected by MS with an expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score of 3.0 or less and without an overt balance impairment were tested by means of static posturography under eyes-opened (single-task condition) and while performing the Stroop word-color test (dual-task condition), to estimate the DTC of standing balance. The self-reported 54-item MS quality of life questionnaire (MSQoL-54) was also administered to obtain a MS-specific assessment of health-related QoL. Among the 120 screened patients, 75 (53 women, 22 men) were tested. Although there was no impact of the DTC of standing balance on the physical and mental composite scores of MSQoL-54, patients who had a greater DTC of standing balance scored worse on role limitations due to physical problems (p = 0.007) and social function (p < 0.001), irrespective of demographic and other clinical characteristics including walking performance and cognitive status. However, the EDSS step and fatigue also contributed to reduced scores in these two QoL domains (p-values < 0.01). In conclusion, the phenomenon of cognitive-motor interference, investigated as DTC of standing balance, may affect specific QoL domains even in mildly disabled patients with MS and in the absence of an overt balance dysfunction.

  16. Comparing the predictive value of multiple cognitive, affective, and motor tasks after rodent traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Zaorui; Loane, David J; Murray, Michael G; Stoica, Bogdan A; Faden, Alan I

    2012-10-10

    Controlled cortical impact injury (CCI) is a widely-used, clinically-relevant model of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Although functional outcomes have been used for years in this model, little work has been done to compare the predictive value of various cognitive and sensorimotor assessment tests, singly or in combination. Such information would be particularly useful for assessing mechanisms of injury or therapeutic interventions. Following isoflurane anesthesia, C57BL/6 mice were subjected to sham, mild (5.0 m/sec), moderate (6.0 m/sec), or severe (7.5 m/sec) CCI. A battery of behavioral tests were evaluated and compared, including the standard Morris water maze (sMWM), reversal Morris water maze (rMWM), novel object recognition (NOR), passive avoidance (PA), tail-suspension (TS), beam walk (BW), and open-field locomotor activity. The BW task, performed at post-injury days (PID) 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 21, and 28, showed good discrimination as a function of injury severity. The sMWM and rMWM tests (PID 14-23), as well as NOR (PID 24 and 25), effectively discriminated spatial and novel object learning and memory across injury severity levels. Notably, the rMWM showed the greatest separation between mild and moderate/severe injury. PA (PID 27 and 28) and TS (PID 24) also reflected differences across injury levels, but to a lesser degree. We also compared individual functional measures with histological outcomes such as lesion volume and neuronal cell loss across anatomical regions. In addition, we created a novel composite behavioral score index from individual complementary behavioral scores, and it provided superior discrimination across injury severities compared to individual tests. In summary, this study demonstrates the feasibility of using a larger number of complementary functional outcome behavioral tests than those traditionally employed to follow post-traumatic recovery after TBI, and suggests that the composite score may be a helpful tool for screening

  17. Comparing the predictive value of multiple cognitive, affective, and motor tasks after rodent traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Zaorui; Loane, David J; Murray, Michael G; Stoica, Bogdan A; Faden, Alan I

    2012-10-10

    Controlled cortical impact injury (CCI) is a widely-used, clinically-relevant model of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Although functional outcomes have been used for years in this model, little work has been done to compare the predictive value of various cognitive and sensorimotor assessment tests, singly or in combination. Such information would be particularly useful for assessing mechanisms of injury or therapeutic interventions. Following isoflurane anesthesia, C57BL/6 mice were subjected to sham, mild (5.0 m/sec), moderate (6.0 m/sec), or severe (7.5 m/sec) CCI. A battery of behavioral tests were evaluated and compared, including the standard Morris water maze (sMWM), reversal Morris water maze (rMWM), novel object recognition (NOR), passive avoidance (PA), tail-suspension (TS), beam walk (BW), and open-field locomotor activity. The BW task, performed at post-injury days (PID) 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 21, and 28, showed good discrimination as a function of injury severity. The sMWM and rMWM tests (PID 14-23), as well as NOR (PID 24 and 25), effectively discriminated spatial and novel object learning and memory across injury severity levels. Notably, the rMWM showed the greatest separation between mild and moderate/severe injury. PA (PID 27 and 28) and TS (PID 24) also reflected differences across injury levels, but to a lesser degree. We also compared individual functional measures with histological outcomes such as lesion volume and neuronal cell loss across anatomical regions. In addition, we created a novel composite behavioral score index from individual complementary behavioral scores, and it provided superior discrimination across injury severities compared to individual tests. In summary, this study demonstrates the feasibility of using a larger number of complementary functional outcome behavioral tests than those traditionally employed to follow post-traumatic recovery after TBI, and suggests that the composite score may be a helpful tool for screening

  18. How Explicit and Implicit Test Instructions in an Implicit Learning Task Affect Performance

    PubMed Central

    Witt, Arnaud; Puspitawati, Ira; Vinter, Annie

    2013-01-01

    Typically developing children aged 5 to 8 years were exposed to artificial grammar learning. Following an implicit exposure phase, half of the participants received neutral instructions at test while the other half received instructions making a direct, explicit reference to the training phase. We first aimed to assess whether implicit learning operated in the two test conditions. We then evaluated the differential impact of age on learning performances as a function of test instructions. The results showed that performance did not vary as a function of age in the implicit instructions condition, while age effects emerged when explicit instructions were employed at test. However, performance was affected differently by age and the instructions given at test, depending on whether the implicit learning of short or long units was assessed. These results suggest that the claim that the implicit learning process is independent of age needs to be revised. PMID:23326409

  19. Contextual factors affecting task distribution in two participatory ergonomic interventions: a qualitative study.

    PubMed

    Dixon, Shane Michael; Theberge, Nancy

    2011-11-01

    This article provides an analysis of the evolution of the division of labour in participatory ergonomics (PE) programmes in two worksites. The analysis is based on interviews and field observations in the worksites. In both settings there was meaningful participation by both worker and management members of ergonomic change teams (ECTs) in the hazard assessment and solution identification stages, but as the teams moved to the implementation stage, worker representatives were marginalised and the participatory nature of the programmes was severely curtailed. The removal of workers from the process was the outcome of the interplay among the type of activities pursued in the implementation stage, the skills and knowledge required to carry out those activities, and workers' limited influence in the organisational hierarchies. Findings highlight the salience of the social context in which participatory programmes are located and the importance of examining participatory programmes as they evolve over time. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: This article contributes to a growing literature on the process and implementation of PE programmes. The article's focus on social and organisational factors that affect the division of labour and attention to the evolution of involvement over time extend current understandings of participation in ergonomics programmes. PMID:22026944

  20. Does task shifting in tuberculosis microscopy services to non-certified technicians in Afghanistan affect quality?

    PubMed

    Mohammad, D; Enarson, D A; Khalid, S M; Taufique, R; Habibullah, H

    2014-03-21

    Contexte : Centres d'examens microscopiques de la tuberculose dans 30 provinces d'Afghanistan.Objectif : Comparer la qualité des examens de frottis de crachats entre les centres où les microscopistes sont des techniciens de laboratoire diplômés et ceux où ils ne le sont pas (titulaires du bac).Schéma : Etude transversale des registres des examens microscopiques des lames de frottis de crachats examinés par les techniciens et vérifiés par des examinateurs formés à l'assurance de qualité externe de routine entre juillet et septembre 2009.Résultats : Sur 129 techniciens non diplômés, 118 (91%) étaient affectés dans des centres de santé ruraux comparés à 217 (84%) sur 257 techniciens diplômés. Sur 386 centres de microscopie, 7313 lames ont été vérifiées. Sur 257 centres de microscopie pourvus de techniciens diplômés, 42 (16%) avaient au moins une lame comportant une erreur grave contre 23 (18%) dans 129 centres de microscopie pourvus de techniciens non diplômés – la différence n'était pas significative (OR 1,11 ; IC95% 0,64–1,94). Le nombre de lames comportant des erreurs graves était également similaire parmi les centres pourvus des deux types de techniciens.Conclusion : Cette étude confirme le déploiement de techniciens en microscopie non diplômés dans les centres de santé périphériques à travers tout le pays et montre que leur performance en matière d'examens de frottis de crachats est similaire à celle des techniciens diplômés après 3 années de formation.

  1. Gait in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: Is gait pattern differently affected in spinal and bulbar onset of the disease during dual task walking?

    PubMed

    Radovanović, Sasa; Milićev, Milena; Perić, Stojan; Basta, Ivana; Kostić, Vladimir; Stević, Zorica

    2014-12-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is characterized by weakness, fatigue, loss of balance and coordination. The purpose of the study was to examine gait in ALS patients. Gait was compared in ALS with spinal and bulbar onset, while performing dual mental and motor tasks. Dual-task walking was performed by 27 ALS patients, 13 with spinal- and 14 with bulbar-onset disease. Twenty-nine healthy subjects were used as a control group. The subjects performed a basic, simple walking task, dual-motor task, dual-mental task, and combined motor and mental tasks. Results showed that dual-task paradigm has an effect on gait in ALS patients. Gait was differently affected in spinal and bulbar onset of ALS by some of the given tasks. Mental tasks had a larger effect than motor tasks in all gait parameters. In conclusion, both ALS forms have impaired gait in dual tasks. Simple walk in patients with spinal onset shows higher variability of certain gait parameters compared to bulbar-onset patients and controls. Differences in gait could also indicate postural instability and possible falls in complex walking situations.

  2. Data Assimilation of AIRS Water Vapor Profiles: Impact on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western of the United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blankenship, Clay; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary; Wick, Gary; Neiman, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric rivers are transient, narrow regions in the atmosphere responsible for the transport of large amounts of water vapor. These phenomena can have a large impact on precipitation. In particular, they can be responsible for intense rain events on the western coast of North America during the winter season. This paper focuses on attempts to improve forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Western US due to atmospheric rivers. Profiles of water vapor derived from from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations are combined with GFS forecasts by a three-dimensional variational data assimilation in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI). Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forecasts initialized from the combined field are compared to forecasts initialized from the GFS forecast only for 3 test cases in the winter of 2011. Results will be presented showing the impact of the AIRS profile data on water vapor and temperature fields, and on the resultant precipitation forecasts.

  3. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  4. Young Children's Affective Responses to Acceptance and Rejection from Peers: A Computer-Based Task Sensitive to Variation in Temperamental Shyness and Gender

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howarth, Grace Z.; Guyer, Amanda E.; Perez-Edgar, Koraly

    2013-01-01

    This study presents a novel task examining young children's affective responses to evaluative feedback--specifically, social acceptance and rejection--from peers. We aimed to determine (1) whether young children report their affective responses to hypothetical peer evaluation predictably and consistently, and (2) whether young children's responses…

  5. One Night of Sleep Deprivation Affects Reaction Time, but Not Interference or Facilitation in a Stroop Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cain, Sean W.; Silva, Edward J.; Chang, Anne-Marie; Ronda, Joseph M.; Duffy, Jeanne F.

    2011-01-01

    The Stroop color-naming task is one of the most widely studied tasks involving the inhibition of a prepotent response, regarded as an executive function. Several studies have examined performance on versions of the Stroop task under conditions of acute sleep deprivation. Though these studies revealed effects on Stroop performance, the results…

  6. An Approach to Improve the Performance of PM Forecasters

    PubMed Central

    de Mattos Neto, Paulo S. G.; Cavalcanti, George D. C.; Madeiro, Francisco; Ferreira, Tiago A. E.

    2015-01-01

    The particulate matter (PM) concentration has been one of the most relevant environmental concerns in recent decades due to its prejudicial effects on living beings and the earth’s atmosphere. High PM concentration affects the human health in several ways leading to short and long term diseases. Thus, forecasting systems have been developed to support decisions of the organizations and governments to alert the population. Forecasting systems based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been highlighted in the literature due to their performances. In general, three ANN-based approaches have been found for this task: ANN trained via learning algorithms, hybrid systems that combine search algorithms with ANNs, and hybrid systems that combine ANN with other forecasters. Independent of the approach, it is common to suppose that the residuals (error series), obtained from the difference between actual series and forecasting, have a white noise behavior. However, it is possible that this assumption is infringed due to: misspecification of the forecasting model, complexity of the time series or temporal patterns of the phenomenon not captured by the forecaster. This paper proposes an approach to improve the performance of PM forecasters from residuals modeling. The approach analyzes the remaining residuals recursively in search of temporal patterns. At each iteration, if there are temporal patterns in the residuals, the approach generates the forecasting of the residuals in order to improve the forecasting of the PM time series. The proposed approach can be used with either only one forecaster or by combining two or more forecasting models. In this study, the approach is used to improve the performance of a hybrid system (HS) composed by genetic algorithm (GA) and ANN from residuals modeling performed by two methods, namely, ANN and own hybrid system. Experiments were performed for PM2.5 and PM10 concentration series in Kallio and Vallila stations in Helsinki and

  7. Pathways from childhood abuse to prospective revictimization: depression, sex to reduce negative affect, and forecasted sexual behavior.

    PubMed

    Miron, Lynsey R; Orcutt, Holly K

    2014-11-01

    Research suggests that adverse events in childhood, such as childhood physical, sexual, and emotional abuse, confer risk for later sexual assault. Psychological distress, coping strategies, and sexual behavior may help explain the path from childhood abuse to revictimization. The present study explored how the use of sex to regulate negative affect (SRNA) operates independently, and in combination with other psychosocial factors to increase college women's (N=541) risk of experiencing prospective adult sexual assault (ASA). Sequential multiple mediator models in Mplus were used to assess the effect of three different forms of childhood abuse on prospective ASA, both independently and while controlling for other forms of childhood abuse. The indirect effect of adolescent sexual assault (AdolSA), depressive symptoms, SRNA, and participants' response to a sex-related vignette was tested using bias-corrected bootstrapping. In the full path model, childhood emotional abuse and AdolSA predicted ASA, while childhood physical and sexual abuse were directly associated with AdolSA, but not ASA. Additionally, depressive symptoms and participants' estimate of their likely behavior in a sex-related vignette directly predicted prospective ASA. Results using bootstrapping revealed that a history of childhood abuse predicted prospective ASA via diverse direct and indirect paths, as well as through a similar multiple mediator path. Overall, findings suggest that a combination of affective, coping, and sexual expectancy factors contribute to risk for revictimization in adult survivors of childhood abuse. Future research directions and targets for risk-reduction programming are discussed.

  8. The Personality Trait of Intolerance to Uncertainty Affects Behavior in a Novel Computer-Based Conditioned Place Preference Task.

    PubMed

    Radell, Milen L; Myers, Catherine E; Beck, Kevin D; Moustafa, Ahmed A; Allen, Michael Todd

    2016-01-01

    Recent work has found that personality factors that confer vulnerability to addiction can also affect learning and economic decision making. One personality trait which has been implicated in vulnerability to addiction is intolerance to uncertainty (IU), i.e., a preference for familiar over unknown (possibly better) options. In animals, the motivation to obtain drugs is often assessed through conditioned place preference (CPP), which compares preference for contexts where drug reward was previously received. It is an open question whether participants with high IU also show heightened preference for previously rewarded contexts. To address this question, we developed a novel computer-based CPP task for humans in which participants guide an avatar through a paradigm in which one room contains frequent reward (i.e., rich) and one contains less frequent reward (i.e., poor). Following exposure to both contexts, subjects are assessed for preference to enter the previously rich and previously poor room. Individuals with low IU showed little bias to enter the previously rich room first, and instead entered both rooms at about the same rate which may indicate a foraging behavior. By contrast, those with high IU showed a strong bias to enter the previously rich room first. This suggests an increased tendency to chase reward in the intolerant group, consistent with previously observed behavior in opioid-addicted individuals. Thus, the personality factor of high IU may produce a pre-existing cognitive bias that provides a mechanism to promote decision-making processes that increase vulnerability to addiction.

  9. The use of a displacement device negatively affects the performance of dogs (Canis familiaris) in visible object displacement tasks

    PubMed Central

    Müller, Corsin A.; Riemer, Stefanie; Range, Friederike; Huber, Ludwig

    2014-01-01

    Visible and invisible displacement tasks have been used widely for comparative studies of animals’ understanding of object permanence, with evidence accumulating that some species can solve invisible displacement tasks and thus reach Piagetian stage 6 of object permanence. In contrast, dogs appear to rely on associative cues, such as the location of the displacement device, during invisible displacement tasks. It remains unclear, however, whether dogs, and other species that failed in invisible displacement tasks, do so due to their inability to form a mental representation of the target object, or simply due to the involvement of a more salient but potentially misleading associative cue, the displacement device. Here we show that the use of a displacement device impairs the performance of dogs also in visible displacement tasks: their search accuracy was significantly lower when a visible displacement was performed with a displacement device, and only two of initially 42 dogs passed the sham-baiting control conditions. The negative influence of the displacement device in visible displacement tasks may be explained by strong associative cues overriding explicit information about the target object’s location, reminiscent of an overshadowing effect, and/or object individuation errors as the target object is placed within the displacement device and moves along a spatiotemporally identical trajectory. Our data suggest that a comprehensive appraisal of a species’ performance in object permanence tasks should include visible displacement tasks with the same displacement device used in invisible displacements, which typically has not been done in the past. PMID:24611641

  10. Which Factors Affect Hand Selection in Children's Grasping in Hemispace? Combined Effects of Task Demand and Motor Dominance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leconte, Pascale; Fagard, Jacqueline

    2006-01-01

    Sixty-five right- and left-handed preschool and school children were tested on three reach-to-grasp tasks of different levels of complexity, performed in three space locations. Our goal was to evaluate how the effect of attentional information related to object location interacts with task complexity and degree of handedness on children's hand…

  11. The Personality Trait of Intolerance to Uncertainty Affects Behavior in a Novel Computer-Based Conditioned Place Preference Task

    PubMed Central

    Radell, Milen L.; Myers, Catherine E.; Beck, Kevin D.; Moustafa, Ahmed A.; Allen, Michael Todd

    2016-01-01

    Recent work has found that personality factors that confer vulnerability to addiction can also affect learning and economic decision making. One personality trait which has been implicated in vulnerability to addiction is intolerance to uncertainty (IU), i.e., a preference for familiar over unknown (possibly better) options. In animals, the motivation to obtain drugs is often assessed through conditioned place preference (CPP), which compares preference for contexts where drug reward was previously received. It is an open question whether participants with high IU also show heightened preference for previously rewarded contexts. To address this question, we developed a novel computer-based CPP task for humans in which participants guide an avatar through a paradigm in which one room contains frequent reward (i.e., rich) and one contains less frequent reward (i.e., poor). Following exposure to both contexts, subjects are assessed for preference to enter the previously rich and previously poor room. Individuals with low IU showed little bias to enter the previously rich room first, and instead entered both rooms at about the same rate which may indicate a foraging behavior. By contrast, those with high IU showed a strong bias to enter the previously rich room first. This suggests an increased tendency to chase reward in the intolerant group, consistent with previously observed behavior in opioid-addicted individuals. Thus, the personality factor of high IU may produce a pre-existing cognitive bias that provides a mechanism to promote decision-making processes that increase vulnerability to addiction. PMID:27555829

  12. The Personality Trait of Intolerance to Uncertainty Affects Behavior in a Novel Computer-Based Conditioned Place Preference Task.

    PubMed

    Radell, Milen L; Myers, Catherine E; Beck, Kevin D; Moustafa, Ahmed A; Allen, Michael Todd

    2016-01-01

    Recent work has found that personality factors that confer vulnerability to addiction can also affect learning and economic decision making. One personality trait which has been implicated in vulnerability to addiction is intolerance to uncertainty (IU), i.e., a preference for familiar over unknown (possibly better) options. In animals, the motivation to obtain drugs is often assessed through conditioned place preference (CPP), which compares preference for contexts where drug reward was previously received. It is an open question whether participants with high IU also show heightened preference for previously rewarded contexts. To address this question, we developed a novel computer-based CPP task for humans in which participants guide an avatar through a paradigm in which one room contains frequent reward (i.e., rich) and one contains less frequent reward (i.e., poor). Following exposure to both contexts, subjects are assessed for preference to enter the previously rich and previously poor room. Individuals with low IU showed little bias to enter the previously rich room first, and instead entered both rooms at about the same rate which may indicate a foraging behavior. By contrast, those with high IU showed a strong bias to enter the previously rich room first. This suggests an increased tendency to chase reward in the intolerant group, consistent with previously observed behavior in opioid-addicted individuals. Thus, the personality factor of high IU may produce a pre-existing cognitive bias that provides a mechanism to promote decision-making processes that increase vulnerability to addiction. PMID:27555829

  13. Inharmonic music elicits more negative affect and interferes more with a concurrent cognitive task than does harmonic music.

    PubMed

    Bonin, Tanor; Smilek, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    We evaluated whether task-irrelevant inharmonic music produces greater interference with cognitive performance than task-irrelevant harmonic music. Participants completed either an auditory (Experiment 1) or a visual (Experiment 2) version of the cognitively demanding 2-back task in which they were required to categorize each digit in a sequence of digits as either being a target (a digit also presented two positions earlier in the sequence) or a distractor (all other items). They were concurrently exposed to either task-irrelevant harmonic music (judged to be consonant), task-irrelevant inharmonic music (judged to be dissonant), or no music at all as a distraction. The main finding across both experiments was that performance on the 2-back task was worse when participants were exposed to inharmonic music than when they were exposed to harmonic music. Interestingly, performance on the 2-back task was generally the same regardless of whether harmonic music or no music was played. We suggest that inharmonic, dissonant music interferes with cognitive performance by requiring greater cognitive processing than harmonic, consonant music, and speculate about why this might be.

  14. Interim report of the interagency coal export task force: draft for public comment. [Trade by country 1960-1979; general forecasting to 1985, 1990 and 2000

    SciTech Connect

    1981-01-01

    The Interagency Coal Export Task Force was formed in the Spring of 1980 at the direction of the President, in support of the international efforts of the United States, encouraging the use of coal. Its purpose was to report on possible courses of action to increase United States steam coal exports in a manner consistent with other national policies, including our commitment to environmental protection. The Task Force assembled existing data, developed significant new information regarding the international coal market and undertook analyses of apparent problems underlying coal exports. The Task Force contributed to a public awareness of the fact that increased coal exports will serve both the domestic and international interests of the United States. Based upon extensive, independent field studies in Europe and the Far East, the Task Force concludes that there will be significant growth in world demand for steam coal. Such growth has already begun, has contributed to the almost seven-fold increase in United States overseas steam coal exports for 1990 over 1979, and is expected to continue beyond the end of this century. The growth in world steam coal trade projected in the report does not guarantee United States coal exporters a large or expanding share of the market. The United States' role depends on the buying strategies of the consuming countries, the policies and prices of competing exporters, and the actions taken by the United States to maintain reasonable prices, prompt delivery and dependable quality. Projections of United States steam coal exports, therefore, rest upon a number of highly uncertain factors which are discussed in some detail.

  15. Contingency learning is not affected by conflict experience: Evidence from a task conflict-free, item-specific Stroop paradigm.

    PubMed

    Levin, Yulia; Tzelgov, Joseph

    2016-02-01

    A contingency learning account of the item-specific proportion congruent effect has been described as an associative stimulus-response learning process that has nothing to do with controlling the Stroop conflict. As supportive evidence, contingency learning has been demonstrated with response conflict-free stimuli, such as neutral words. However, what gives rise to response conflict and to Stroop interference in general is task conflict. The present study investigated whether task conflict can constitute a trigger or, alternatively, a booster to the contingency learning process. This was done by employing a "task conflict-free" condition (i.e., geometric shapes) and comparing it with a "task conflict" condition (i.e., neutral words). The results showed a significant contingency learning effect in both conditions, refuting the possibility that contingency learning is triggered by the presence of a task conflict. Contingency learning was also not enhanced by the task conflict experience, indicating its complete insensitivity to Stroop conflict(s). Thus, the results showed no evidence that performance optimization as a result of contingency learning is greater under conflict, implying that contingency learning is not recruited to assist the control system to overcome conflict.

  16. Do frailty and cognitive impairment affect dual-task cost during walking in the oldest old institutionalized patients?

    PubMed

    Cadore, Eduardo L; Casas-Herrero, Alvaro; Zambom-Ferraresi, Fabricio; Martínez-Ramírez, Alicia; Millor, Nora; Gómez, Marisol; Moneo, Ana B Bays; Izquierdo, Mikel

    2015-12-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate dual-task costs in several elderly populations, including robust oldest old, frail oldest old with MCI, frail oldest old without MCI, and frail elderly with dementia. Sixty-four elderly men and women categorized into frail without MCI (age 93.4 ± 3.2 years, n = 20), frail with MCI (age 92.4 ± 4.2 years, n = 13), robust (age 88.2 ± 4.1 years, n = 10), and patients with dementia (age 88.1 ± 5.1 years, n = 21). Five-meter gait ability and timed-up-and-go (TUG) tests with single and dual-task performance were assessed in the groups. Dual-task cost in both 5-m habitual gait velocity test and TUG test was calculated by the time differences between single and dual-task performance. The robust group exhibited better 5-m gait and TUG test performances in the single and dual-task conditions compared with the other three groups (P < 0.001), and the frail and frail + MCI groups exhibited better performances than the dementia group (P < 0.001). No significant differences were observed between the frail and frail + MCI groups. However, all groups exhibited lower gait velocities in the verbal and arithmetic task conditions, but the dual-task cost of the groups were similar. Robust individuals exhibited superior single and dual-task walking performances than the other three groups, and the frail and frail + MCI individuals exhibited performances that were superior to those of the patients with dementia. However, the dual-task costs, i.e., the changes in gait performance when elderly participants switch from a single to a dual task, were similar among all four of the investigated groups. Therefore, these results demonstrated that the magnitude of the impairment in gait pattern is independent of frailty and cognitive impairment status.

  17. Do frailty and cognitive impairment affect dual-task cost during walking in the oldest old institutionalized patients?

    PubMed

    Cadore, Eduardo L; Casas-Herrero, Alvaro; Zambom-Ferraresi, Fabricio; Martínez-Ramírez, Alicia; Millor, Nora; Gómez, Marisol; Moneo, Ana B Bays; Izquierdo, Mikel

    2015-12-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate dual-task costs in several elderly populations, including robust oldest old, frail oldest old with MCI, frail oldest old without MCI, and frail elderly with dementia. Sixty-four elderly men and women categorized into frail without MCI (age 93.4 ± 3.2 years, n = 20), frail with MCI (age 92.4 ± 4.2 years, n = 13), robust (age 88.2 ± 4.1 years, n = 10), and patients with dementia (age 88.1 ± 5.1 years, n = 21). Five-meter gait ability and timed-up-and-go (TUG) tests with single and dual-task performance were assessed in the groups. Dual-task cost in both 5-m habitual gait velocity test and TUG test was calculated by the time differences between single and dual-task performance. The robust group exhibited better 5-m gait and TUG test performances in the single and dual-task conditions compared with the other three groups (P < 0.001), and the frail and frail + MCI groups exhibited better performances than the dementia group (P < 0.001). No significant differences were observed between the frail and frail + MCI groups. However, all groups exhibited lower gait velocities in the verbal and arithmetic task conditions, but the dual-task cost of the groups were similar. Robust individuals exhibited superior single and dual-task walking performances than the other three groups, and the frail and frail + MCI individuals exhibited performances that were superior to those of the patients with dementia. However, the dual-task costs, i.e., the changes in gait performance when elderly participants switch from a single to a dual task, were similar among all four of the investigated groups. Therefore, these results demonstrated that the magnitude of the impairment in gait pattern is independent of frailty and cognitive impairment status. PMID:26667940

  18. Fishing Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    ROFFS stands for Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. Roffer combines satellite and computer technology with oceanographic information from several sources to produce frequently updated charts sometimes as often as 30 times a day showing clues to the location of marlin, sailfish, tuna, swordfish and a variety of other types. Also provides customized forecasts for racing boats and the shipping industry along with seasonal forecasts that allow the marine industry to formulate fishing strategies based on foreknowledge of the arrival and departure times of different fish. Roffs service exemplifies the potential for benefits to marine industries from satellite observations. Most notable results are reduced search time and substantial fuel savings.

  19. Continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS) on left cerebellar hemisphere affects mental rotation tasks during music listening.

    PubMed

    Picazio, Silvia; Oliveri, Massimiliano; Koch, Giacomo; Caltagirone, Carlo; Petrosini, Laura

    2013-01-01

    Converging evidence suggests an association between spatial and music domains. A cerebellar role in music-related information processing as well as in spatial-temporal tasks has been documented. Here, we investigated the cerebellar role in the association between spatial and musical domains, by testing performances in embodied (EMR) or abstract (AMR) mental rotation tasks of subjects listening Mozart Sonata K.448, which is reported to improve spatial-temporal reasoning, in the presence or in the absence of continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS) of the left cerebellar hemisphere. In the absence of cerebellar cTBS, music listening did not influence either MR task, thus not revealing a "Mozart Effect". Cerebellar cTBS applied before musical listening made subjects faster (P = 0.005) and less accurate (P = 0.005) in performing the EMR but not the AMR task. Thus, cerebellar inhibition by TBS unmasked the effect of musical listening on motor imagery. These data support a coupling between music listening and sensory-motor integration in cerebellar networks for embodied representations.

  20. How Does Processing Affect Storage in Working Memory Tasks? Evidence for Both Domain-General and Domain-Specific Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jarrold, Christopher; Tam, Helen; Baddeley, Alan D.; Harvey, Caroline E.

    2011-01-01

    Two studies that examine whether the forgetting caused by the processing demands of working memory tasks is domain-general or domain-specific are presented. In each, separate groups of adult participants were asked to carry out either verbal or nonverbal operations on exactly the same processing materials while maintaining verbal storage items.…

  1. On the possibility of getting economically sound forecasts of rare space weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burov, V. A.

    There is a problem of setting criteria of space weather forecast quality that allows estimation of the economic effectiveness of forecasts in comparison with other methods for real users. The overwhelming majority of such users (airlines, power lines, pipelines, space exploration, navigation, ground-induced currents, medical services, etc.), are primarily interested in large space weather disturbances that affect the operation of their systems. But powerful disturbances happen rather seldom and so the traditional criteria of quality estimation give very little useful information for an estimate of economic effectiveness of the forecast. This work proposes a specially constructed value “A” for every customer (task) and for each method (or kind) of the forecast, which allows the estimation of the comparative economic effectiveness. Special attention is paid to the statistical significance in reference to the cyclic nature of the solar activity, and there are also indicated some numeral limits, which have to be considered during such a check.

  2. Can stereotype threat affect motor performance in the absence of explicit monitoring processes? Evidence using a strength task.

    PubMed

    Chalabaev, Aïna; Brisswalter, Jeanick; Radel, Rémi; Coombes, Stephen A; Easthope, Christopher; Clément-Guillotin, Corentin

    2013-04-01

    Previous evidence shows that stereotype threat impairs complex motor skills through increased conscious monitoring of task performance. Given that one-step motor skills may not be susceptible to these processes, we examined whether performance on a simple strength task may be reduced under stereotype threat. Forty females and males performed maximum voluntary contractions under stereotypical or nullified-stereotype conditions. Results showed that the velocity of force production within the first milliseconds of the contraction decreased in females when the negative stereotype was induced, whereas maximal force did not change. In males, the stereotype induction only increased maximal force. These findings suggest that stereotype threat may impair motor skills in the absence of explicit monitoring processes, by influencing the planning stage of force production. PMID:23535978

  3. Can stereotype threat affect motor performance in the absence of explicit monitoring processes? Evidence using a strength task.

    PubMed

    Chalabaev, Aïna; Brisswalter, Jeanick; Radel, Rémi; Coombes, Stephen A; Easthope, Christopher; Clément-Guillotin, Corentin

    2013-04-01

    Previous evidence shows that stereotype threat impairs complex motor skills through increased conscious monitoring of task performance. Given that one-step motor skills may not be susceptible to these processes, we examined whether performance on a simple strength task may be reduced under stereotype threat. Forty females and males performed maximum voluntary contractions under stereotypical or nullified-stereotype conditions. Results showed that the velocity of force production within the first milliseconds of the contraction decreased in females when the negative stereotype was induced, whereas maximal force did not change. In males, the stereotype induction only increased maximal force. These findings suggest that stereotype threat may impair motor skills in the absence of explicit monitoring processes, by influencing the planning stage of force production.

  4. Judgments of auditory-visual affective congruence in adolescents with and without autism: a pilot study of a new task using fMRI.

    PubMed

    Loveland, Katherine A; Steinberg, Joel L; Pearson, Deborah A; Mansour, Rosleen; Reddoch, Stacy

    2008-10-01

    One of the most widely reported developmental deficits associated with autism is difficulty perceiving and expressing emotion appropriately. Brain activation associated with performance on a new task, the Emotional Congruence Task, requires judging affective congruence of facial expression and voice, compared with their sex congruence. Participants in this pilot study were adolescents with normal IQ (n = 5) and autism or without (n = 4) autism. In the emotional congruence condition, as compared to the sex congruence of voice and face, controls had significantly more activation than the Autism group in the orbitofrontal cortex, the superior temporal, parahippocampal, and posterior cingulate gyri and occipital regions. Unlike controls, the Autism group did not have significantly greater prefrontal activation during the emotional congruence condition, but did during the sex congruence condition. Results indicate the Emotional Congruence Task can be used successfully to assess brain activation and behavior associated with integration of auditory and visual information for emotion. While the numbers in the groups are small, the results suggest that brain activity while performing the Emotional Congruence Task differed between adolescents with and without autism in fronto-limbic areas and in the superior temporal region. These findings must be confirmed using larger samples of participants.

  5. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  6. Reasonable Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Kelley R.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for clothing or…

  7. Why Don't We Learn to Accurately Forecast Feelings? How Misremembering Our Predictions Blinds Us to Past Forecasting Errors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyvis, Tom; Ratner, Rebecca K.; Levav, Jonathan

    2010-01-01

    Why do affective forecasting errors persist in the face of repeated disconfirming evidence? Five studies demonstrate that people misremember their forecasts as consistent with their experience and thus fail to perceive the extent of their forecasting error. As a result, people do not learn from past forecasting errors and fail to adjust subsequent…

  8. Testing the connection of the mirror system and speech: how articulation affects imitation in a simple response task.

    PubMed

    Kühn, Simone; Brass, Marcel

    2008-04-01

    There seems to be a close connection between speech and action, which we experience almost daily when we try to support our verbal expressions with gestures. Recently, the assumption that the language system and the action system are intimately linked has received support from brain imaging research showing that imitation and language production involve the same cortical structure, namely Broca's area. However, if the assumption of a functional interdependency holds true, one would predict that language production and imitation should interact on the behavioural level. We have tested this assumption in a series of experiments in which we investigated the influence of an articulation task on imitation. Here we show that articulation has a specific influence on the imitation of finger movements when compared to a non-imitative stimulus-response (S-R) association. These findings provide strong experimental support for the assumption that language production and imitation share common functional mechanisms. PMID:18289617

  9. Tablet Keyboard Configuration Affects Performance, Discomfort and Task Difficulty for Thumb Typing in a Two-Handed Grip

    PubMed Central

    Trudeau, Matthieu B.; Catalano, Paul J.; Jindrich, Devin L.; Dennerlein, Jack T.

    2013-01-01

    When holding a tablet computer with two hands, the touch keyboard configuration imposes postural constraints on the user because of the need to simultaneously hold the device and type with the thumbs. Designers have provided users with several possible keyboard configurations (device orientation, keyboard layout and location). However, potential differences in performance, usability and postures among these configurations have not been explored. We hypothesize that (1) the narrower standard keyboard layout in the portrait orientation leads to lower self-reported discomfort and less reach than the landscape orientation; (2) a split keyboard layout results in better overall outcomes compared to the standard layout; and (3) the conventional bottom keyboard location leads to the best outcomes overall compared to other locations. A repeated measures laboratory experiment of 12 tablet owners measured typing speed, discomfort, task difficulty, and thumb/wrist joint postures using an active marker system during typing tasks for different combinations of device orientation (portrait and landscape), keyboard layout (standard and split), and keyboard location (bottom, middle, top). The narrower standard keyboard with the device in the portrait orientation was associated with less discomfort (least squares mean (and S.E.) 2.9±0.6) than the landscape orientation (4.5±0.7). Additionally, the split keyboard decreased the amount of reaching required by the thumb in the landscape orientation as defined by a reduced range of motion and less MCP extension, which may have led to reduced discomfort (2.7±0.6) compared to the standard layout (4.5±0.7). However, typing speed was greater for the standard layout (127±5 char./min.) compared to the split layout (113±4 char./min.) regardless of device orientation and keyboard location. Usage guidelines and designers can incorporate these findings to optimize keyboard design parameters and form factors that promote user performance and

  10. Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task.

    PubMed

    O'Brien, Megan K; Ahmed, Alaa A

    2014-01-01

    Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing) and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform). We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat. PMID:25083345

  11. Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task

    PubMed Central

    O’Brien, Megan K.

    2014-01-01

    Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing) and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform). We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat. PMID:25083345

  12. Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karolak, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

  13. Ageing affects event-related potentials and brain oscillations: a behavioral and electrophysiological study using a haptic recognition memory task.

    PubMed

    Sebastián, Manuel; Reales, José M; Ballesteros, Soledad

    2011-12-01

    In this electrophysiological study, we investigated the effects of ageing on recognition memory for three-dimensional (3D) familiar objects presented to touch in a continuous paradigm. To examine changes in event-related potentials (ERPs) and brain oscillations, we recorded the EEGs of healthy groups of young (n=14; mean age=32.3 years) and older adults (n=14; mean age=65.1). Both age groups exhibited similar accuracy and exploration times when making old-new judgments. Young and older participants showed a marginally significant ERP old/new effect widely distributed over the scalp between 550-750 ms. In addition, the elders showed lower amplitude than younger participants within 1200-1500 ms. There were age-related differences in brain oscillations as measured by event-related spectral perturbation (ERSP). Older adults showed greater alpha and beta power reductions than young participants, suggesting the recruitment of additional neural resources. In contrast, the two age groups showed a reliable old/new effect in the theta band that temporarily overlapped the ERP old/new effect. The present results suggest that despite similar behavioral performance, the young and older adults recruited different neural resources to perform a haptic recognition task. PMID:22027172

  14. The weight of computer mouse affects the wrist motion and forearm muscle activity during fast operation speed task.

    PubMed

    Chen, Han-Ming; Lee, Chang-Sian; Cheng, Chih-Hsiu

    2012-06-01

    The frequent use of the computer mouse was reported to be associated with the development of the musculoskeletal disorders in the wrist, forearm, and shoulder regions. This study was to examine the effect of the mouse weights and operation speeds on the wrist motion and muscle activity. 25 subjects (20 males and 5 females) were instructed to repetitively point-and-click the mouse between two targets displaced in the monitor with five different weighted mice (weights around 70, 100, 130, 160, and 190 g) at the fast (50 repetition/min) and slow (25 repetition/min) operation speeds. Surface electromyographic activity of the extensor carpi radialis, extensor carpi ulnaris, extensor digitorum, and upper trapezius muscles were recorded, and the electrogoniometer was used to register the wrist motions. The results showed that the maximal ulnar deviation was not significantly different among the examined conditions. The wrist movement range and the forearm muscle activities showed a V-shape tendency with the lowest value in the mouse weight of 130 g. This tendency was diminished during the slow speed tasks. The results suggested that the proper mouse weight could benefit the users in terms of increasing the movement efficiency and decreasing the muscular costs.

  15. Beyond affect: A role for genetic variation of the serotonin transporter in neural activation during a cognitive attention task

    PubMed Central

    Canli, Turhan; Omura, Kazufumi; Haas, Brian W.; Fallgatter, Andreas; Constable, R. Todd; Lesch, Klaus Peter

    2005-01-01

    Prior work has highlighted the role of genetic variation within the repetitive sequence in the transcriptional control region of the serotonin (5-HT) transporter gene (5-HTT, SLC6A4) in modulating amygdala and prefrontal activation to negative emotional stimuli. However, these studies have not explicitly tested the assumption that the control condition (neutral baseline) does not itself produce changes in activation as a function of 5-HTT genotype. Using a fixation baseline condition, we show that variation in 5-HTT genotype is associated with differential activation to negative, positive, and neutral stimuli in limbic, striatal, and cortical regions. We replicate earlier reports of increased amygdala activation to negative, relative to neutral, stimuli, but then show that these differences are driven by decreased activation to neutral stimuli, rather than increased activation to negative stimuli, in carriers of the 5-HTT short allele. Using high-resolution structural images and automated processes to test for brain volume and gray matter density, we further report significant differences, as a function of 5-HTT genotype, in frontal cortical regions, anterior cingulate, and cerebellum. These functional and structural differences suggest a much broader role for 5-HT transport efficiency in brain processes than previously thought. 5-HTT genotype affects neural systems controlling affective, cognitive, and motor processes. PMID:16093315

  16. Task-Based and Questionnaire Measures of Inhibitory Control Are Differentially Affected by Acute Food Restriction and by Motivationally Salient Food Stimuli in Healthy Adults.

    PubMed

    Bartholdy, Savani; Cheng, Jiumu; Schmidt, Ulrike; Campbell, Iain C; O'Daly, Owen G

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive eating behaviors are dependent on an interaction between motivational states (e.g., hunger) and the ability to control one's own behavior (inhibitory control). Indeed, behavioral paradigms are emerging that seek to train inhibitory control to improve eating behavior. However, inhibitory control is a multifaceted concept, and it is not yet clear how different types (e.g., reactive motor inhibition, proactive motor inhibition, reward-related inhibition) are affected by hunger. Such knowledge will provide insight into the contexts in which behavioral training paradigms would be most effective. The present study explored the impact of promoting a "need" state (hunger) together with motivationally salient distracting stimuli (food/non-food images) on inhibitory control in 46 healthy adults. Participants attended two study sessions, once after eating breakfast as usual and once after acute food restriction on the morning of the session. In each session, participants completed questionnaires on hunger, mood and inhibitory control, and undertook task-based measures of inhibitory control, and had physiological measurements (height, weight, and blood glucose) obtained by a researcher. Acute food restriction influenced task-based assessments but not questionnaire measures of inhibitory control, suggesting that hunger affects observable behavioral control but not self-reported inhibitory control. After acute food restriction, participants showed greater temporal discounting (devaluation of future rewards), and subjective hunger and these were inversely correlated with stop accuracy on the stop signal task. Finally, participants generally responded faster when food-related distractor images were presented, compared to non-food images, independent of state. This suggests that although food stimuli motivate approach behavior, stimulus relevance does not impact inhibitory control in healthy individuals, nor interact with motivational state. These findings may provide some

  17. Task-Based and Questionnaire Measures of Inhibitory Control Are Differentially Affected by Acute Food Restriction and by Motivationally Salient Food Stimuli in Healthy Adults

    PubMed Central

    Bartholdy, Savani; Cheng, Jiumu; Schmidt, Ulrike; Campbell, Iain C.; O'Daly, Owen G.

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive eating behaviors are dependent on an interaction between motivational states (e.g., hunger) and the ability to control one's own behavior (inhibitory control). Indeed, behavioral paradigms are emerging that seek to train inhibitory control to improve eating behavior. However, inhibitory control is a multifaceted concept, and it is not yet clear how different types (e.g., reactive motor inhibition, proactive motor inhibition, reward-related inhibition) are affected by hunger. Such knowledge will provide insight into the contexts in which behavioral training paradigms would be most effective. The present study explored the impact of promoting a “need” state (hunger) together with motivationally salient distracting stimuli (food/non-food images) on inhibitory control in 46 healthy adults. Participants attended two study sessions, once after eating breakfast as usual and once after acute food restriction on the morning of the session. In each session, participants completed questionnaires on hunger, mood and inhibitory control, and undertook task-based measures of inhibitory control, and had physiological measurements (height, weight, and blood glucose) obtained by a researcher. Acute food restriction influenced task-based assessments but not questionnaire measures of inhibitory control, suggesting that hunger affects observable behavioral control but not self-reported inhibitory control. After acute food restriction, participants showed greater temporal discounting (devaluation of future rewards), and subjective hunger and these were inversely correlated with stop accuracy on the stop signal task. Finally, participants generally responded faster when food-related distractor images were presented, compared to non-food images, independent of state. This suggests that although food stimuli motivate approach behavior, stimulus relevance does not impact inhibitory control in healthy individuals, nor interact with motivational state. These findings may provide

  18. Task-Based and Questionnaire Measures of Inhibitory Control Are Differentially Affected by Acute Food Restriction and by Motivationally Salient Food Stimuli in Healthy Adults

    PubMed Central

    Bartholdy, Savani; Cheng, Jiumu; Schmidt, Ulrike; Campbell, Iain C.; O'Daly, Owen G.

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive eating behaviors are dependent on an interaction between motivational states (e.g., hunger) and the ability to control one's own behavior (inhibitory control). Indeed, behavioral paradigms are emerging that seek to train inhibitory control to improve eating behavior. However, inhibitory control is a multifaceted concept, and it is not yet clear how different types (e.g., reactive motor inhibition, proactive motor inhibition, reward-related inhibition) are affected by hunger. Such knowledge will provide insight into the contexts in which behavioral training paradigms would be most effective. The present study explored the impact of promoting a “need” state (hunger) together with motivationally salient distracting stimuli (food/non-food images) on inhibitory control in 46 healthy adults. Participants attended two study sessions, once after eating breakfast as usual and once after acute food restriction on the morning of the session. In each session, participants completed questionnaires on hunger, mood and inhibitory control, and undertook task-based measures of inhibitory control, and had physiological measurements (height, weight, and blood glucose) obtained by a researcher. Acute food restriction influenced task-based assessments but not questionnaire measures of inhibitory control, suggesting that hunger affects observable behavioral control but not self-reported inhibitory control. After acute food restriction, participants showed greater temporal discounting (devaluation of future rewards), and subjective hunger and these were inversely correlated with stop accuracy on the stop signal task. Finally, participants generally responded faster when food-related distractor images were presented, compared to non-food images, independent of state. This suggests that although food stimuli motivate approach behavior, stimulus relevance does not impact inhibitory control in healthy individuals, nor interact with motivational state. These findings may provide

  19. Task-Based and Questionnaire Measures of Inhibitory Control Are Differentially Affected by Acute Food Restriction and by Motivationally Salient Food Stimuli in Healthy Adults.

    PubMed

    Bartholdy, Savani; Cheng, Jiumu; Schmidt, Ulrike; Campbell, Iain C; O'Daly, Owen G

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive eating behaviors are dependent on an interaction between motivational states (e.g., hunger) and the ability to control one's own behavior (inhibitory control). Indeed, behavioral paradigms are emerging that seek to train inhibitory control to improve eating behavior. However, inhibitory control is a multifaceted concept, and it is not yet clear how different types (e.g., reactive motor inhibition, proactive motor inhibition, reward-related inhibition) are affected by hunger. Such knowledge will provide insight into the contexts in which behavioral training paradigms would be most effective. The present study explored the impact of promoting a "need" state (hunger) together with motivationally salient distracting stimuli (food/non-food images) on inhibitory control in 46 healthy adults. Participants attended two study sessions, once after eating breakfast as usual and once after acute food restriction on the morning of the session. In each session, participants completed questionnaires on hunger, mood and inhibitory control, and undertook task-based measures of inhibitory control, and had physiological measurements (height, weight, and blood glucose) obtained by a researcher. Acute food restriction influenced task-based assessments but not questionnaire measures of inhibitory control, suggesting that hunger affects observable behavioral control but not self-reported inhibitory control. After acute food restriction, participants showed greater temporal discounting (devaluation of future rewards), and subjective hunger and these were inversely correlated with stop accuracy on the stop signal task. Finally, participants generally responded faster when food-related distractor images were presented, compared to non-food images, independent of state. This suggests that although food stimuli motivate approach behavior, stimulus relevance does not impact inhibitory control in healthy individuals, nor interact with motivational state. These findings may provide some

  20. Healthy co-twins of patients with affective disorders show reduced risk-related activation of the insula during a monetary gambling task

    PubMed Central

    Macoveanu, Julian; Miskowiak, Kamilla; Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vinberg, Maj; Siebner, Hartwig Roman

    2016-01-01

    Background Healthy first-degree relatives of patients with affective disorders are at increased risk for affective disorders and express discrete structural and functional abnormalities in the brain reward system. However, value-based decision making is not well understood in these at-risk individuals. Methods We investigated healthy monozygotic and dizygotic twins with or without a co-twin history of affective disorders (high-risk and low-risk groups, respectively) using functional MRI during a gambling task. We assessed group differences in activity related to gambling risk over the entire brain. Results We included 30 monozygotic and 37 dizygotic twins in our analysis. Neural activity in the anterior insula and ventral striatum increased linearly with the amount of gambling risk in the entire cohort. Individual neuroticism scores were positively correlated with the neural response in the ventral striatum to increasing gambling risk and negatively correlated with individual risk-taking behaviour. Compared with low-risk twins, the high-risk twins showed a bilateral reduction of risk-related activity in the middle insula extending into the temporal cortex with increasing gambling risk. Post hoc analyses revealed that this effect was strongest in dizygotic twins. Limitations The relatively old average age of the mono- and dizygotic twin cohort (49.2 yr) may indicate an increased resilience to affective disorders. The size of the monozygotic high-risk group was relatively small (n = 13). Conclusion The reduced processing of risk magnitude in the middle insula may indicate a deficient integration of exteroceptive information related to risk-related cues with interoceptive states in individuals at familial risk for affective disorders. Impaired risk processing might contribute to increased vulnerability to affective disorders. PMID:26395812

  1. Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic models of infectious disease systems abound and are used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms affecting transmission, and the suitability of various control and intervention strategies. The dynamics of disease transmission are non-linear and consequently difficult to forecast. Here, we describe combined model-inference frameworks developed for the prediction of infectious diseases. We show that accurate and reliable predictions of seasonal influenza outbreaks can be made using a mathematical model representing population-level influenza transmission dynamics that has been recursively optimized using ensemble data assimilation techniques and real-time estimates of influenza incidence. Operational real-time forecasts of influenza and other infectious diseases have been and are currently being generated.

  2. The memory stages of a spatial Y-maze task are not affected by a low dose of ketamine/midazolam.

    PubMed

    Valentim, Ana M; Ribeiro, Patrícia O; Olsson, I Anna S; Antunes, Luís M

    2013-07-15

    Anesthetics, such as the ketamine/midazolam combination, are used in research with animals and in human clinical practice; thus, it is essential to clarify the potential effects of these anesthetics on memory. This study aimed to evaluate how a low dose of the ketamine/midazolam combination affects the acquisition, consolidation, or recall of a spatial memory task. Thirty-three adult male C57BL/6 mice were divided into four treatment groups: unanesthetized control animals and three groups of animals treated with 40 mg/kg of ketamine and 10mg/kg of midazolam administered in a single intraperitoneal injection. The different treatment groups received the same anesthetic dose at different time points, to study the acquisition, consolidation, and recall of spatial memory in the Y-maze task. The percentage of correct choices was measured. Six mice were killed 4 days and 12 days after anesthesia for histopathological analyses. There were no differences between treatment and control groups regarding the acquisition of spatial memory, measured as the slope of the learning curve, or in the percentage of correct choices in the consolidation or recall periods of the task. Similarly, no differences were detected between groups regarding the number of cells per square millimeter in the visual and retrosplenial cortex, in the dentate gyrus, and in the CA1 and CA3 regions of the hippocampus. Hence, a low dose of the ketamine/midazolam combination did not impair memory processes or brain integrity in adult mice, suggesting that this combination is unlikely to cause cognitive complications.

  3. Oral intake of γ-aminobutyric acid affects mood and activities of central nervous system during stressed condition induced by mental tasks.

    PubMed

    Yoto, A; Murao, S; Motoki, M; Yokoyama, Y; Horie, N; Takeshima, K; Masuda, K; Kim, M; Yokogoshi, H

    2012-09-01

    γ-Aminobutyric acid (GABA) is a kind of amino acid contained in green tea leaves and other foods. Several reports have shown that GABA might affect brain protein synthesis, improve many brain functions such as memory and study capability, lower the blood pressure of spontaneously hypertensive rats, and may also have a relaxation effect in humans. However, the evidence for its mood-improving function is still not sufficient. In this study, we investigated how the oral intake of GABA influences human adults psychologically and physiologically under a condition of mental stress. Sixty-three adults (28 males, 35 females) participated in a randomized, single blind, placebo-controlled, crossover-designed study over two experiment days. Capsules containing 100 mg of GABA or dextrin as a placebo were used as test samples. The results showed that EEG activities including alpha band and beta band brain waves decreased depending on the mental stress task loads, and the condition of 30 min after GABA intake diminished this decrease compared with the placebo condition. That is to say, GABA might have alleviated the stress induced by the mental tasks. This effect also corresponded with the results of the POMS scores. PMID:22203366

  4. Oral intake of γ-aminobutyric acid affects mood and activities of central nervous system during stressed condition induced by mental tasks.

    PubMed

    Yoto, A; Murao, S; Motoki, M; Yokoyama, Y; Horie, N; Takeshima, K; Masuda, K; Kim, M; Yokogoshi, H

    2012-09-01

    γ-Aminobutyric acid (GABA) is a kind of amino acid contained in green tea leaves and other foods. Several reports have shown that GABA might affect brain protein synthesis, improve many brain functions such as memory and study capability, lower the blood pressure of spontaneously hypertensive rats, and may also have a relaxation effect in humans. However, the evidence for its mood-improving function is still not sufficient. In this study, we investigated how the oral intake of GABA influences human adults psychologically and physiologically under a condition of mental stress. Sixty-three adults (28 males, 35 females) participated in a randomized, single blind, placebo-controlled, crossover-designed study over two experiment days. Capsules containing 100 mg of GABA or dextrin as a placebo were used as test samples. The results showed that EEG activities including alpha band and beta band brain waves decreased depending on the mental stress task loads, and the condition of 30 min after GABA intake diminished this decrease compared with the placebo condition. That is to say, GABA might have alleviated the stress induced by the mental tasks. This effect also corresponded with the results of the POMS scores.

  5. Forecasting the solar activity cycle: new insights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nandy, Dibyendu; Karak, Bidya Binay

    2013-07-01

    Having advance knowledge of solar activity is important because the Sun's magnetic output governs space weather and impacts technologies reliant on space. However, the irregular nature of the solar cycle makes solar activity predictions a challenging task. This is best achieved through appropriately constrained solar dynamo simulations and as such the first step towards predictions is to understand the underlying physics of the solar dynamo mechanism. In Babcock-Leighton type dynamo models, the poloidal field is generated near the solar surface whereas the toroidal field is generated in the solar interior. Therefore a finite time is necessary for the coupling of the spatially segregated source layers of the dynamo. This time delay introduces a memory in the dynamo mechanism which allows forecasting of future solar activity. Here we discuss how this forecasting ability of the solar cycle is affected by downward turbulent pumping of magnetic flux. With significant turbulent pumping the memory of the dynamo is severely degraded and thus long term prediction of the solar cycle is not possible; only a short term prediction of the next cycle peak may be possible based on observational data assimilation at the previous cycle minimum.

  6. Forecast Mekong

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    Forecast Mekong is part of the U.S. Department of State's Lower Mekong Initiative, which was launched in 2009 by Secretary Hillary Clinton and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam to enhance partnerships between the U.S. and the Lower Mekong River countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working in close cooperation with the U.S. Department of State to use research and data from the Lower Mekong Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decision makers in Lower Mekong River countries in the planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the basin.

  7. Task Importance Affects Event-based Prospective Memory Performance in Adults with HIV-Associated Neurocognitive Disorders and HIV-infected Young Adults with Problematic Substance Use

    PubMed Central

    Woods, Steven Paul; Doyle, Katie L.; Morgan, Erin E.; Naar-King, Sylvie; Outlaw, Angulique Y.; Nichols, Sharon L.; Loft, Shayne

    2014-01-01

    Objective Two experiments were conducted to examine the effects of task importance on event-based prospective memory (PM) in separate samples of adults with HIV-associated Neurocognitive Disorders (HAND) and HIV-infected young adults with Substance Use Disorders (SUD). Method All participants completed three conditions of an ongoing lexical decision task: 1) without PM task requirements; 2) with PM task requirements that emphasized the importance of the ongoing task; and 3) with PM task requirements that emphasized the importance of the PM task. Results In both experiments, all HIV+ groups showed the expected increase in response costs to the ongoing task when the PM task’s importance was emphasized. In Experiment 1, individuals with HAND showed significantly lower PM accuracy as compared to HIV+ subjects without HAND when the importance of the ongoing task was emphasized, but improved significantly and no longer differed from HIV+ subjects without HAND when the PM task was emphasized. A similar pattern of findings emerged in Experiment 2, whereby HIV+ young adults with SUD (especially cannabis) showed significant improvements in PM accuracy when the PM task was emphasized. Conclusions Findings suggest that both HAND and SUD may increase the amount of cognitive attentional resources that need to be allocated to support PM performance in persons living with HIV infection. PMID:24834469

  8. Task Switching in a Hierarchical Task Structure: Evidence for the Fragility of the Task Repetition Benefit

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lien, Mei-Ching; Ruthruff, Eric

    2004-01-01

    This study examined how task switching is affected by hierarchical task organization. Traditional task-switching studies, which use a constant temporal and spatial distance between each task element (defined as a stimulus requiring a response), promote a flat task structure. Using this approach, Experiment 1 revealed a large switch cost of 238 ms.…

  9. Inhibition of GABA synthesis in the prefrontal cortex increases locomotor activity but does not affect attention in the 5-choice serial reaction time task.

    PubMed

    Asinof, Samuel K; Paine, Tracie A

    2013-02-01

    Attention deficits are a core cognitive symptom of schizophrenia; the neuropathology underlying these deficits is not known. Attention is regulated, at least in part, by the prefrontal cortex (PFC), a brain area in which pathology of γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) neurons has been consistently observed in post-mortem analysis of the brains of people with schizophrenia. Specifically, expression of the 67-kD isoform of the GABA synthesis enzyme glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD67) is reduced in parvalbumin-containing fast-spiking GABA interneurons. Thus it is hypothesized that reduced cortical GABA synthesis and release may contribute to the attention deficits in schizophrenia. Here the effect of reducing cortical GABA synthesis with l-allylglycine (LAG) on attention was tested using three different versions of the 5-choice serial reaction time task (5CSRTT). Because 5CSRTT performance can be affected by locomotor activity, we also measured this behavior in an open field. Finally, the expression of Fos protein was used as an indirect measure of reduced GABA synthesis. Intra-cortical LAG (10 μg/0.5 μl/side) infusions increased Fos expression and resulted in hyperactivity in the open field. Intra-cortical LAG infusions did not affect attention in any version of the 5CSRTT. These results suggest that a general decrease in GABA synthesis is not sufficient to cause attention deficits. It remains to be tested whether a selective decrease in GABA synthesis in parvalbumin-containing GABA neurons could cause attention deficits. Decreased cortical GABA synthesis did increase locomotor activity; this may reflect the positive symptoms of schizophrenia.

  10. How do video-based demonstration assessment tasks affect problem-solving process, test anxiety, chemistry anxiety and achievement in general chemistry students?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terrell, Rosalind Stephanie

    2001-12-01

    Because paper-and-pencil testing provides limited knowledge about what students know about chemical phenomena, we have developed video-based demonstrations to broaden measurement of student learning. For example, students might be shown a video demonstrating equilibrium shifts. Two methods for viewing equilibrium shifts are changing the concentration of the reactants and changing the temperature of the system. The students are required to combine the data collected from the video and their knowledge of chemistry to determine which way the equilibrium shifts. Video-based demonstrations are important techniques for measuring student learning because they require students to apply conceptual knowledge learned in class to a specific chemical problem. This study explores how video-based demonstration assessment tasks affect problem-solving processes, test anxiety, chemistry anxiety and achievement in general chemistry students. Several instruments were used to determine students' knowledge about chemistry, students' test and chemistry anxiety before and after treatment. Think-aloud interviews were conducted to determine students' problem-solving processes after treatment. The treatment group was compared to a control group and a group watching video demonstrations. After treatment students' anxiety increased and achievement decreased. There were also no significant differences found in students' problem-solving processes following treatment. These negative findings may be attributed to several factors that will be explored in this study.

  11. Objective Lightning Probability Forecasts for East-Central Florida Airports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crawford, Winfred C.

    2013-01-01

    The forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL, (NWS MLB) identified a need to make more accurate lightning forecasts to help alleviate delays due to thunderstorms in the vicinity of several commercial airports in central Florida at which they are responsible for issuing terminal aerodrome forecasts. Such forecasts would also provide safer ground operations around terminals, and would be of value to Center Weather Service Units serving air traffic controllers in Florida. To improve the forecast, the AMU was tasked to develop an objective lightning probability forecast tool for the airports using data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The resulting forecast tool is similar to that developed by the AMU to support space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for use by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in previous tasks (Lambert and Wheeler 2005, Lambert 2007). The lightning probability forecasts are valid for the time periods and areas needed by the NWS MLB forecasters in the warm season months, defined in this task as May-September.

  12. A study for systematic errors of the GLA forecast model in tropical regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Tsing-Chang; Baker, Wayman E.; Pfaendtner, James; Corrigan, Martin

    1988-01-01

    From the sensitivity studies performed with the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) analysis/forecast system, it was revealed that the forecast errors in the tropics affect the ability to forecast midlatitude weather in some cases. Apparently, the forecast errors occurring in the tropics can propagate to midlatitudes. Therefore, the systematic error analysis of the GLA forecast system becomes a necessary step in improving the model's forecast performance. The major effort of this study is to examine the possible impact of the hydrological-cycle forecast error on dynamical fields in the GLA forecast system.

  13. How to Support a One-Handed Economist: The Role of Modalisation in Economic Forecasting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donohue, James P.

    2006-01-01

    Economic forecasting in the world of international finance confronts economists with challenging cross-cultural writing tasks. Producing forecasts in English which convey confidence and credibility entails an understanding of linguistic conventions which typify the genre. A typical linguistic feature of commercial economic forecasts produced by…

  14. Load forecasting by ANN

    SciTech Connect

    Highley, D.D.; Hilmes, T.J. )

    1993-07-01

    This article discusses the use and training of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for load forecasting. The topics of the article include a brief overview of neural networks, interest in ANNs, training of neural networks, a case study in load forecasting, and the potential for using an artificial neural network to perform short-term load forecasting.

  15. Can short-term oral fine motor training affect precision of task performance and induce cortical plasticity of the jaw muscles?

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hong; Kumar, Abhishek; Kothari, Mohit; Luo, Xiaoping; Trulsson, Mats; Svensson, Krister G; Svensson, Peter

    2016-07-01

    The aim was to test the hypothesis that short-term oral sensorimotor training of the jaw muscles would increase the precision of task performance and induce neuroplastic changes in the corticomotor pathways, related to the masseter muscle. Fifteen healthy volunteers performed six series with ten trials of an oral sensorimotor task. The task was to manipulate and position a spherical chocolate candy in between the anterior teeth and split it into two equal halves. The precision of the task performance was evaluated by comparing the ratio between the two split halves. A series of "hold-and-split" tasks was also performed before and after the training. The hold force and split force along with the electromyographic (EMG) activity of jaw muscles were recorded. Motor-evoked potentials and cortical motor maps of the right masseter muscle were evoked by transcranial magnetic stimulation. There was a significant effect of series on the precision of the task performance during the short-term oral sensorimotor training (P < 0.002). The hold force during the "hold-and-split" task was significantly lower after training than before the short-term training (P = 0.011). However, there was no change in the split force and the EMG activity of the jaw muscles before and after the training. Further, there was a significant increase in the amplitude of the motor-evoked potentials (P < 0.016) and in the motor cortex map areas (P = 0.033), after the short-term oral sensorimotor training. Therefore, short-term oral sensorimotor task training increased the precision of task performance and induced signs of neuroplastic changes in the corticomotor pathways, related to the masseter muscle.

  16. Can short-term oral fine motor training affect precision of task performance and induce cortical plasticity of the jaw muscles?

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hong; Kumar, Abhishek; Kothari, Mohit; Luo, Xiaoping; Trulsson, Mats; Svensson, Krister G; Svensson, Peter

    2016-07-01

    The aim was to test the hypothesis that short-term oral sensorimotor training of the jaw muscles would increase the precision of task performance and induce neuroplastic changes in the corticomotor pathways, related to the masseter muscle. Fifteen healthy volunteers performed six series with ten trials of an oral sensorimotor task. The task was to manipulate and position a spherical chocolate candy in between the anterior teeth and split it into two equal halves. The precision of the task performance was evaluated by comparing the ratio between the two split halves. A series of "hold-and-split" tasks was also performed before and after the training. The hold force and split force along with the electromyographic (EMG) activity of jaw muscles were recorded. Motor-evoked potentials and cortical motor maps of the right masseter muscle were evoked by transcranial magnetic stimulation. There was a significant effect of series on the precision of the task performance during the short-term oral sensorimotor training (P < 0.002). The hold force during the "hold-and-split" task was significantly lower after training than before the short-term training (P = 0.011). However, there was no change in the split force and the EMG activity of the jaw muscles before and after the training. Further, there was a significant increase in the amplitude of the motor-evoked potentials (P < 0.016) and in the motor cortex map areas (P = 0.033), after the short-term oral sensorimotor training. Therefore, short-term oral sensorimotor task training increased the precision of task performance and induced signs of neuroplastic changes in the corticomotor pathways, related to the masseter muscle. PMID:26914481

  17. Physician supply forecast: better than peering in a crystal ball?

    PubMed Central

    Roberfroid, Dominique; Leonard, Christian; Stordeur, Sabine

    2009-01-01

    Background Anticipating physician supply to tackle future health challenges is a crucial but complex task for policy planners. A number of forecasting tools are available, but the methods, advantages and shortcomings of such tools are not straightforward and not always well appraised. Therefore this paper had two objectives: to present a typology of existing forecasting approaches and to analyse the methodology-related issues. Methods A literature review was carried out in electronic databases Medline-Ovid, Embase and ERIC. Concrete examples of planning experiences in various countries were analysed. Results Four main forecasting approaches were identified. The supply projection approach defines the necessary inflow to maintain or to reach in the future an arbitrary predefined level of service offer. The demand-based approach estimates the quantity of health care services used by the population in the future to project physician requirements. The needs-based approach involves defining and predicting health care deficits so that they can be addressed by an adequate workforce. Benchmarking health systems with similar populations and health profiles is the last approach. These different methods can be combined to perform a gap analysis. The methodological challenges of such projections are numerous: most often static models are used and their uncertainty is not assessed; valid and comprehensive data to feed into the models are often lacking; and a rapidly evolving environment affects the likelihood of projection scenarios. As a result, the internal and external validity of the projections included in our review appeared limited. Conclusion There is no single accepted approach to forecasting physician requirements. The value of projections lies in their utility in identifying the current and emerging trends to which policy-makers need to respond. A genuine gap analysis, an effective monitoring of key parameters and comprehensive workforce planning are key elements to

  18. A synthesized heuristic task scheduling algorithm.

    PubMed

    Dai, Yanyan; Zhang, Xiangli

    2014-01-01

    Aiming at the static task scheduling problems in heterogeneous environment, a heuristic task scheduling algorithm named HCPPEFT is proposed. In task prioritizing phase, there are three levels of priority in the algorithm to choose task. First, the critical tasks have the highest priority, secondly the tasks with longer path to exit task will be selected, and then algorithm will choose tasks with less predecessors to schedule. In resource selection phase, the algorithm is selected task duplication to reduce the interresource communication cost, besides forecasting the impact of an assignment for all children of the current task permits better decisions to be made in selecting resources. The algorithm proposed is compared with STDH, PEFT, and HEFT algorithms through randomly generated graphs and sets of task graphs. The experimental results show that the new algorithm can achieve better scheduling performance.

  19. Seasonal streamflow forecasting with the global hydrological forecasting system FEWS-World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Van Beek, L. P.; Winsemius, H.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2011-12-01

    The year-to-year variability of river discharge brings about risks and opportunities in water resources management. Reliable hydrological forecasts and effective communication allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. For these regions, a global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value. FEWS-World is developed for this purpose. The system incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB and delivers streamflow forecasts on a global scale. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value is its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The results will be disseminated on the internet to provide valuable information for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The preliminary skill assessment of PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing flow extremes is carried out for a selection of 20 large rivers of the world. The model is run for a historical period, with a meteorological forcing data set based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, and the ERA-40 reanalysis of ECMWF. Model skill in reproducing monthly anomalies as well as floods and droughts is assessed by applying verification measures developed for deterministic meteorological forecasts. The results of this preliminary analysis shows that even where the simulated hydrographs are biased, higher skills can be attained in reproducing monthly

  20. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  1. Wind speed forecasting for wind energy applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hong

    With more wind energy being integrated into our grid systems, forecasting wind energy has become a necessity for all market participants. Recognizing the market demands, a physical approach to site-specific hub-height wind speed forecasting system has been developed. This system is driven by the outputs from the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. A simple interpolation approach benchmarks the forecasting accuracy inherited from GEM. Local, site specific winds are affected on a local scale by a variety of factors including representation of the land surface and local boundary-layer process over heterogeneous terrain which have been a continuing challenge in NWP models like GEM with typical horizontal resolution of order 15-km. In order to resolve these small scale effects, a wind energy industry standard model, WAsP, is coupled with GEM to improve the forecast. Coupling the WAsP model with GEM improves the overall forecasts, but remains unsatisfactory for forecasting winds with abrupt surface condition changes. Subsequently in this study, a new coupler that uses a 2-D RANS model of boundary-layer flow over surface condition changes with improved physics has been developed to further improve the forecasts when winds coming from a water surface to land experience abrupt changes in surface conditions. It has been demonstrated that using vertically averaged wind speeds to represent geostrophic winds for input into the micro-scale models could reduce forecast errors. The hub-height wind speed forecasts could be further improved using a linear MOS approach. The forecasting system has been evaluated, using a wind energy standard evaluation matrix, against data from an 80-m mast located near the north shore of Lake Erie. Coupling with GEM-LAM and a power conversion model using a theoretical power curve have also been investigated. For hub-height wind speeds GEM appears to perform better with a 15-Ian grid than the high resolution GEM-2.5Ian version at the

  2. Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 8, Germany's War on the Soviet Union, 1941-45. I. Long-range Weather Forecasts for 1941-42 and Climatological Studies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neumann, J.; Flohn, H.

    1987-06-01

    A brief account is given of Baur's long-range weather forecast prepared in the autumn of 1941 for the 1941-42 winter in Eastern Europe. Baur's forecast called for a normal' or mild winter but the winter turned out to be one of the most severe winters on record. The cold, the icy winds and blizzards gravely hit the German armies and coincided with the first major Soviet counteroffensive of the war. A Soviet weather forecast for January 1942, also called for a mild month.A review of the climatological studies prepared for the war indicates that the occurrence of mud periods of considerable intensity in autumn was not considered. The autumn 1941 mud period immobilized most of the German armies for a month and caused the attempted final German assault on Moscow to take place in an early and severe winter.Hitter would not tolerate the mention of winter and still less the mention of the retreat of Napoleon's Grande Armée from Russia.The support given by Soviet meteorologists and hydrologists to the Red Army is sketched. For the 1941-42 winter the more-important short- to medium-range forecasts included a forecast for 7 November (anniversary of the October Revolution) at Moscow and a forecast for the start of Zhukov's counteroffensive in the Battle of Moscow in December 1941.

  3. Modelling the Factors that Affect Individuals' Utilisation of Online Learning Systems: An Empirical Study Combining the Task Technology Fit Model with the Theory of Planned Behaviour

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yu, Tai-Kuei; Yu, Tai-Yi

    2010-01-01

    Understanding learners' behaviour, perceptions and influence in terms of learner performance is crucial to predict the use of electronic learning systems. By integrating the task-technology fit (TTF) model and the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), this paper investigates the online learning utilisation of Taiwanese students. This paper provides a…

  4. The Ability of High School Chemistry Students to Solve Computational Problems Requiring Proportional Reasoning as Affected by Item In-Task Variables.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falls, Timothy H.; Voss, Burton

    This research study was conducted to investigate the interactions of specific student aptitudes with their ability to solve chemistry problems of varying structure and information. Fourteen classroom quizzes were validated and a number of in-task variables were identified for analysis. These variables included: the nature of information given…

  5. The Differential Involvement of the Prelimbic and Infralimbic Cortices in Response Conflict Affects Behavioral Flexibility in Rats Trained in a New Automated Strategy-Switching Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oualian, Catherine; Gisquet-Verrier, Pascale

    2010-01-01

    To assess the role of the prelimbic (PL) and infralimbic (IL) cortices in mediating strategy switching, rats were trained in a new automated task in a Y-maze allowing a careful analysis of rats' behavior. In this situation, rats can only use two egocentric (Right, Left) and two visual (Light, Dark) strategies. In the first experiment, rats with…

  6. Spatiotemporal drought forecasting using nonlinear models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios

    2010-05-01

    Spatiotemporal data mining is the extraction of unknown and implicit knowledge, structures, spatiotemporal relationships, or patterns not explicitly stored in spatiotemporal databases. As one of data mining techniques, forecasting is widely used to predict the unknown future based upon the patterns hidden in the current and past data. In order to achieve spatiotemporal forecasting, some mature analysis tools, e.g., time series and spatial statistics are extended to the spatial dimension and the temporal dimension, respectively. Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of natural resources and water resource systems in a river basin. Early and timelines forecasting of a drought event can help to take proactive measures and set out drought mitigation strategies to alleviate the impacts of drought. Despite the widespread application of nonlinear mathematical models, comparative studies on spatiotemporal drought forecasting using different models are still a huge task for modellers. This study uses a promising approach, the Gamma Test (GT), to select the input variables and the training data length, so that the trial and error workload could be greatly reduced. The GT enables to quickly evaluate and estimate the best mean squared error that can be achieved by a smooth model on any unseen data for a given selection of inputs, prior to model construction. The GT is applied to forecast droughts using monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) timeseries at multiple timescales in several precipitation stations at Pinios river basin in Thessaly region, Greece. Several nonlinear models have been developed efficiently, with the aid of the GT, for 1-month up to 12-month ahead forecasting. Several temporal and spatial statistical indices were considered for the performance evaluation of the models. The predicted results show reasonably good agreement with the actual data for short lead times, whereas the forecasting accuracy decreases with

  7. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  8. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  9. Weather assessment and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

  10. Advanced chaos forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doerner, R.; Hübinger, B.; Martienssen, W.

    1994-07-01

    The exponential separation of initially adjacent trajectories restricts the predictability of deterministic chaotic motions. The predictability depends on the initial state from where the trajectory starts that shall be forecasted. By calculating the predictability simultaneously with the forecast, we are able to reject forecasts with low reliability immediately, thereby decreasing drastically the average forecast error. We test this scheme experimentally on Chua's circuit [Komuro, Tokunaga, Matsumoto, Chua, and Hotta, Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos 1, 139 (1991)], basing all calculations only on a time series of a single scalar variable.

  11. Integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Mosimann, Markus; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    A key aspect of disaster prevention is flood discharge forecasting which is used for early warning and therefore as a decision support for intervention forces. Hereby, the phase between the issued forecast and the time when the expected flood occurs is crucial for an optimal planning of the intervention. Typically, river discharge forecasts cover the regional level only, i.e. larger catchments. However, it is important to note that these forecasts are not useable directly for specific target groups on local level because these forecasts say nothing about the consequences of the predicted flood in terms of affected areas, number of exposed residents and houses. For this, on one hand simulations of the flooding processes and on the other hand data of vulnerable objects are needed. Furthermore, flood modelling in a high spatial and temporal resolution is required for robust flood loss estimation. This is a resource-intensive task from a computing time point of view. Therefore, in real-time applications flood modelling in 2D is not suited. Thus, forecasting flood losses in the short-term (6h-24h in advance) requires a different approach. Here, we propose a method to downscale the river discharge forecast to a spatially-explicit flood loss forecast. The principal procedure is to generate as many flood scenarios as needed in advance to represent the flooded areas for all possible flood hydrographs, e.g. very high peak discharges of short duration vs. high peak discharges with high volumes. For this, synthetic flood hydrographs were derived from the hydrologic time series. Then, the flooded areas of each scenario were modelled with a 2D flood simulation model. All scenarios were intersected with the dataset of vulnerable objects, in our case residential, agricultural and industrial buildings with information about the number of residents, the object-specific vulnerability, and the monetary value of the objects. This dataset was prepared by a data-mining approach. For each

  12. Why don't we learn to accurately forecast feelings? How misremembering our predictions blinds us to past forecasting errors.

    PubMed

    Meyvis, Tom; Ratner, Rebecca K; Levav, Jonathan

    2010-11-01

    Why do affective forecasting errors persist in the face of repeated disconfirming evidence? Five studies demonstrate that people misremember their forecasts as consistent with their experience and thus fail to perceive the extent of their forecasting error. As a result, people do not learn from past forecasting errors and fail to adjust subsequent forecasts. In the context of a Super Bowl loss (Study 1), a presidential election (Studies 2 and 3), an important purchase (Study 4), and the consumption of candies (Study 5), individuals mispredicted their affective reactions to these experiences and subsequently misremembered their predictions as more accurate than they actually had been. The findings indicate that this recall error results from people's tendency to anchor on their current affective state when trying to recall their affective forecasts. Further, those who showed larger recall errors were less likely to learn to adjust their subsequent forecasts and reminding people of their actual forecasts enhanced learning. These results suggest that a failure to accurately recall one's past predictions contributes to the perpetuation of forecasting errors.

  13. Verification of Medium Range Probabilistic Rainfall Forecasts Over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dube, Anumeha; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Singh, Harvir; Iyengar, Gopal; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting rainfall in the tropics is a challenging task further hampered by the uncertainty in the numerical weather prediction models. Ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) provide an efficient way of handling the inherent uncertainty of these models. Verification of forecasts obtained from an EPS is a necessity, to build confidence in using these forecasts. This study deals with the verification of the probabilistic rainfall forecast obtained from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) Global Ensemble Forecast system (NGEFS) for three monsoon seasons, i.e., JJAS 2012, 2013 and 2014. Verification is done based on the Brier Score (BS) and its components (reliability, resolution and uncertainty), Brier Skill Score (BSS), reliability diagram, relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC (AROC) curve. Three observation data sets are used (namely, NMSG, CPC-RFE2.0 and TRMM) for verification of forecasts and the statistics are compared. BS values for verification of NGEFS forecasts using NMSG data are the lowest, indicating that the forecasts have a better match with these observations as compared to both TRMM and CPC-RFE2.0. This is further strengthened by lower reliability, higher resolution and BSS values for verification against this data set. The ROC curve shows that lower rainfall amounts have a higher hit rate, which implies that the model has better skill in predicting these rainfall amounts. Th e reliability plots show that the events with lower probabilities were under forecasted and those with higher probabilities were over forecasted. From the current study it can be concluded that even though NGEFS is a coarse resolution EPS, the probabilistic forecast has good skill. This in turn leads to an increased confidence in issuing operational probabilistic forecasts based on NGEFS.

  14. The HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Forecast Test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nance, L. B.; Bernardet, L.; Bao, S.; Brown, B.; Carson, L.; Fowler, T.; Halley Gotway, J.; Harrop, C.; Szoke, E.; Tollerud, E. I.; Wolff, J.; Yuan, H.

    2010-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are a serious concern for the nation, causing significant risk to life, property and economic vitality. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service has a mission of issuing tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings, aimed at protecting life and property and enhancing the national economy. In the last 10 years, the errors in hurricane track forecasts have been reduced by about 50% through improved model guidance, enhanced observations, and forecaster expertise. However, little progress has been made during this period toward reducing forecasted intensity errors. To address this shortcoming, NOAA established the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) in 2007. HFIP is a 10-year plan to improve one to five day tropical cyclone forecasts, with a focus on rapid intensity change. Recent research suggests that prediction models with grid spacing less than 1 km in the inner core of the hurricane may provide a substantial improvement in intensity forecasts. The 2008-09 staging of the High Resolution Hurricane (HRH) Test focused on quantifying the impact of increased horizontal resolution in numerical models on hurricane intensity forecasts. The primary goal of this test was an evaluation of the effect of increasing horizontal resolution within a given model across a variety of storms with different intensity, location and structure. The test focused on 69 retrospectives cases from the 2005 and 2007 hurricane seasons. Six modeling groups participated in the HRH test utilizing a variety of models, including three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the operational GFDL model, the Navy’s tropical cyclone model, and a model developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UWM). The Development Testbed Center (DTC) was tasked with providing objective verification statistics for a variety of metrics. This presentation provides an overview of the HRH Test and a summary of the standard

  15. Impact of precipitation forecast uncertainties and initial soil moisture conditions on a probabilistic flood forecasting chain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silvestro, Francesco; Rebora, Nicola

    2014-11-01

    One of the main difficulties that flood forecasters are faced with is evaluating how errors and uncertainties in forecasted precipitation propagate into streamflow forecast. These errors, must be combined with the effects of different initial soil moisture conditions that generally have a significant impact on the final results of a flood forecast. This is further complicated by the fact that a probabilistic approach is needed, especially when small and medium size basins are considered (the variability of the streamflow scenarios is in fact strongly influenced by the aforementioned factors). Moreover, the ensemble size is a degree of freedom when a precipitation downscaling algorithm is part of the forecast chain. In fact, a change of ensemble size could lead to different final results once the other inputs and parameters are fixed. In this work, a series of synthetic experiments have been designed and implemented to test an operational probabilistic flood forecast system in order to augment the knowledge of how streamflow forecasts can be affected by errors and uncertainties associated with the three aforementioned elements: forecasted rainfall, soil moisture initial conditions, and ensemble size.

  16. Does language dominance affect cognitive performance in bilinguals? Lifespan evidence from preschoolers through older adults on card sorting, Simon, and metalinguistic tasks

    PubMed Central

    Gathercole, Virginia C. Mueller; Thomas, Enlli M.; Kennedy, Ivan; Prys, Cynog; Young, Nia; Viñas Guasch, Nestor; Roberts, Emily J.; Hughes, Emma K.; Jones, Leah

    2014-01-01

    This study explores the extent to which a bilingual advantage can be observed for three tasks in an established population of fully fluent bilinguals from childhood through adulthood. Welsh-English simultaneous and early sequential bilinguals, as well as English monolinguals, aged 3 years through older adults, were tested on three sets of cognitive and executive function tasks. Bilinguals were Welsh-dominant, balanced, or English-dominant, with only Welsh, Welsh and English, or only English at home. Card sorting, Simon, and a metalinguistic judgment task (650, 557, and 354 participants, respectively) reveal little support for a bilingual advantage, either in relation to control or globally. Primarily there is no difference in performance across groups, but there is occasionally better performance by monolinguals or persons dominant in the language being tested, and in one case-in one condition and in one age group-lower performance by the monolinguals. The lack of evidence for a bilingual advantage in these simultaneous and early sequential bilinguals suggests the need for much closer scrutiny of what type of bilingual might demonstrate the reported effects, under what conditions, and why. PMID:24550853

  17. Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmahon, J.

    1972-01-01

    Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports.

  18. The VMAT-2 inhibitor tetrabenazine affects effort-related decision making in a progressive ratio/chow feeding choice task: reversal with antidepressant drugs.

    PubMed

    Randall, Patrick A; Lee, Christie A; Nunes, Eric J; Yohn, Samantha E; Nowak, Victoria; Khan, Bilal; Shah, Priya; Pandit, Saagar; Vemuri, V Kiran; Makriyannis, Alex; Baqi, Younis; Müller, Christa E; Correa, Merce; Salamone, John D

    2014-01-01

    Behavioral activation is a fundamental feature of motivation, and organisms frequently make effort-related decisions based upon evaluations of reinforcement value and response costs. Furthermore, people with major depression and other disorders often show anergia, psychomotor retardation, fatigue, and alterations in effort-related decision making. Tasks measuring effort-based decision making can be used as animal models of the motivational symptoms of depression, and the present studies characterized the effort-related effects of the vesicular monoamine transport (VMAT-2) inhibitor tetrabenazine. Tetrabenazine induces depressive symptoms in humans, and also preferentially depletes dopamine (DA). Rats were assessed using a concurrent progressive ratio (PROG)/chow feeding task, in which they can either lever press on a PROG schedule for preferred high-carbohydrate food, or approach and consume a less-preferred lab chow that is freely available in the chamber. Previous work has shown that the DA antagonist haloperidol reduced PROG work output on this task, but did not reduce chow intake, effects that differed substantially from those of reinforcer devaluation or appetite suppressant drugs. The present work demonstrated that tetrabenazine produced an effort-related shift in responding on the PROG/chow procedure, reducing lever presses, highest ratio achieved and time spent responding, but not reducing chow intake. Similar effects were produced by administration of the subtype selective DA antagonists ecopipam (D1) and eticlopride (D2), but not by the cannabinoid CB1 receptor neutral antagonist and putative appetite suppressant AM 4413, which suppressed both lever pressing and chow intake. The adenosine A2A antagonist MSX-3, the antidepressant and catecholamine uptake inhibitor bupropion, and the MAO-B inhibitor deprenyl, all reversed the impairments induced by tetrabenazine. This work demonstrates the potential utility of the PROG/chow procedure as a rodent model of

  19. Forecasting decadal and shorter time-scale solar cycle features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dikpati, Mausumi

    2016-07-01

    Solar energetic particles and magnetic fields reach the Earth through the interplanetary medium and affect it in various ways, producing beautiful aurorae, but also electrical blackouts and damage to our technology-dependent economy. The root of energetic solar outputs is the solar activity cycle, which is most likely caused by dynamo processes inside the Sun. It is a formidable task to accurately predict the amplitude, onset and peak timings of a solar cycle. After reviewing all solar cycle prediction methods, including empirical as well as physical model-based schemes, I will describe what we have learned from both validation and nonvalidation of cycle 24 forecasts, and how to refine the model-based schemes for upcoming cycle 25 forecasts. Recent observations indicate that within a solar cycle there are shorter time-scale 'space weather' features, such as bursts of various forms of activity with approximately one year periodicity. I will demonstrate how global tachocline dynamics could play a crucial role in producing such space weather. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

  20. Forecast of iceberg ensemble drift

    SciTech Connect

    El-Tahan, M.S.; El-Tahan, H.W.; Venkatesh, S.

    1983-05-01

    The objectives of the study are to gain a better understanding of the characteristics of iceberg motion and the factors controlling iceberg drift, and to develop an iceberg ensemble drift forecast system to be operated by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service. An extensive review of field and theoretical studies on iceberg behaviour, and the factors controlling iceberg motion has been carried out. Long term and short term behaviour of icebergs are critically examined. A quantitative assessment of the effects of the factors controlling iceberg motion is presented. The study indicated that wind and currents are the primary driving forces. Coriolis Force and ocean surface slope also have significant effects. As for waves, only the higher waves have a significant effect. Iceberg drift is also affected by iceberg size characteristics. Based on the findings of the study a comprehensive computerized forecast system to predict the drift of iceberg ensembles off Canada's east coast has been designed. The expected accuracy of the forecast system is discussed and recommendations are made for future improvements to the system.

  1. Task switching in a hierarchical task structure: evidence for the fragility of the task repetition benefit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lien, Mei-Ching; Ruthruff, Eric

    2004-01-01

    This study examined how task switching is affected by hierarchical task organization. Traditional task-switching studies, which use a constant temporal and spatial distance between each task element (defined as a stimulus requiring a response), promote a flat task structure. Using this approach, Experiment 1 revealed a large switch cost of 238 ms. In Experiments 2-5, adjacent task elements were grouped temporally and/or spatially (forming an ensemble) to create a hierarchical task organization. Results indicate that the effect of switching at the ensemble level dominated the effect of switching at the element level. Experiments 6 and 7, using an ensemble of 3 task elements, revealed that the element-level switch cost was virtually absent between ensembles but was large within an ensemble. The authors conclude that the element-level task repetition benefit is fragile and can be eliminated in a hierarchical task organization.

  2. Forecasting gaming revenues in Clark County, Nevada: Issues and methods

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, B.K.; Bando, A.

    1992-07-01

    This paper describes the Western Area Gaming and Economic Response Simulator (WAGERS), a forecasting model that emphasizes the role of the gaming industry in Clark County, Nevada. Is is designed to generate forecasts of gaming revenues in Clark County, whose regional economy is dominated by the gaming industry. The model is meant to forecast Clark County gaming revenues and identifies the exogenous variables that affect gaming revenues. It will provide baseline forecasts of Clark County gaming revenues in order to assess changes in gaming-related economic activity resulting from changes in regional economic activity and tourism.

  3. Forecasting gaming revenues in Clark County, Nevada: Issues and methods

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, B.K.; Bando, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the Western Area Gaming and Economic Response Simulator (WAGERS), a forecasting model that emphasizes the role of the gaming industry in Clark County, Nevada. Is is designed to generate forecasts of gaming revenues in Clark County, whose regional economy is dominated by the gaming industry. The model is meant to forecast Clark County gaming revenues and identifies the exogenous variables that affect gaming revenues. It will provide baseline forecasts of Clark County gaming revenues in order to assess changes in gaming-related economic activity resulting from changes in regional economic activity and tourism.

  4. [The Immigration and Naturalization Service and demographic forecasts].

    PubMed

    Van Miert, H

    1998-01-01

    "The Immigration and Naturalisation Service of the Netherlands is a government institution with the authority to decide which persons are allowed immigration into the Netherlands. Its decisions are not only of importance to the potential immigrants themselves, but also to organizations responsible for enforcing the jurisdiction. In order to perform such tasks in a fair and efficient manner, forecasts of immigrants, in particular forecasts of asylum seekers, are indispensable." (EXCERPT)

  5. High versus low fat/sugar food affects the behavioral, but not the cortisol response of marmoset monkeys in a conditioned-place-preference task.

    PubMed

    Duarte, R B M; Patrono, E; Borges, A C; Tomaz, C; Ventura, R; Gasbarri, A; Puglisi-Allegra, S; Barros, M

    2015-02-01

    The effect of a high (chocolate) versus low fat/sugar (chow) food on a conditioned-place-preference (CPP) task was evaluated in marmoset monkeys. Anxiety-related behaviors and cortisol levels before and after the CPP task were also measured. Subjects were habituated to a two-compartment CPP box and then, on alternate days, had access to only one compartment during daily 15-min conditionings, for a total of 14 trials. Marmosets were provisioned with chocolate chips in the CC-paired compartment on odd-numbered trials and standard chow in the CW-paired compartment on even-numbered trials. They were then tested for preferring the CC-paired context after a 24-h interval. During the conditioning, a significantly greater amount (in kcal/trial) of chocolate was consumed than chow, yet the foraging pattern of both food types was similar. On the test trial, the time spent in the CC-paired context increased significantly compared to pre-CPP levels, yet this response was not readily predicted by baseline behavioral or cortisol levels. Also, the chocolate CPP response was positively correlated with foraging time, rather than the amount of calories consumed. The sudden absence of the food increased exploration, while the chocolate CPP effect was associated with vigilance - both anxiety-related behaviors in marmosets. This behavioral profile occurred regardless of any concomitant change or correlation with cortisol. Therefore, the high fat/sugar food was more prone to be overly consumed by the marmosets, to induce a CPP response and to lead to anxiety-related behavior in its absence. PMID:25447426

  6. Task Difficulty Differentially Affects Two Measures of Processing Load: The Pupil Response during Sentence Processing and Delayed Cued Recall of the Sentences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zekveld, Adriana A.; Festen, Joost M.; Kramer, Kramera

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: In this study, the authors assessed the influence of masking level (29% or 71% sentence perception) and test modality on the processing load during language perception as reflected by the pupil response. In addition, the authors administered a delayed cued stimulus recall test to examine whether processing load affected the encoding of…

  7. Task breakdown

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pavlich, Jane

    1990-01-01

    The topics concerning the Center for Space Construction (CSC) space construction breakdown structure are presented in viewgraph form. It is concluded that four components describe a task -- effecting, information gathering, analysis, and regulation; uncertainties effect the relative amount of information gathering and analysis that occurs; and that task timing requirements drive the 'location in time' of cognition.

  8. Statistical evaluation of forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J.; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

    2014-08-01

    Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

  9. An Integrated Enrollment Forecast Model. IR Applications, Volume 15, January 18, 2008

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Chau-Kuang

    2008-01-01

    Enrollment forecasting is the central component of effective budget and program planning. The integrated enrollment forecast model is developed to achieve a better understanding of the variables affecting student enrollment and, ultimately, to perform accurate forecasts. The transfer function model of the autoregressive integrated moving average…

  10. Probabilistic river forecast methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, Karen Suzanne

    1997-09-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS) operates deterministic conceptual models to predict the hydrologic response of a river basin to precipitation. The output from these models are forecasted hydrographs (time series of the future river stage) at certain locations along a river. In order for the forecasts to be useful for optimal decision making, the uncertainty associated with them must be quantified. A methodology is developed for this purpose that (i) can be implemented with any deterministic hydrologic model, (ii) receives a probabilistic forecast of precipitation as input, (iii) quantifies all sources of uncertainty, (iv) operates in real-time and within computing constraints, and (v) produces probability distributions of future river stages. The Bayesian theory which supports the methodology involves transformation of a distribution of future precipitation into one of future river stage, and statistical characterization of the uncertainty in the hydrologic model. This is accomplished by decomposing total uncertainty into that associated with future precipitation and that associated with the hydrologic transformations. These are processed independently and then integrated into a predictive distribution which constitutes a probabilistic river stage forecast. A variety of models are presented for implementation of the methodology. In the most general model, a probability of exceedance associated with a given future hydrograph specified. In the simplest model, a probability of exceedance associated with a given future river stage is specified. In conjunction with the Ohio River Forecast Center of the NWS, the simplest model is used to demonstrate the feasibility of producing probabilistic river stage forecasts for a river basin located in headwaters. Previous efforts to quantify uncertainty in river forecasting have only considered selected sources of uncertainty, been specific to a particular hydrologic model, or have not obtained an entire probability

  11. Exposure of baboons to combined 60 Hz electric and magnetic fields does not produce work stoppage or affect operant performance on a match-to-sample task

    SciTech Connect

    Orr, J.L.; Rogers, W.R.; Smith, H.D.

    1995-12-31

    The authors examined the effects of combined 60 Hz electric and magnetic field (EMF) exposure on performance of delayed match-to-sample (MTS) procedure involving the flash rate of a light as the stimulus. Six baboons (Papio cynocephalus) fully acquired the task; four others functioned accurately only when cued. All ten subjects were assigned to EMF-exposed or sham-exposed groups of five and were used to test for a work-stoppage effect that was previously observed with initial exposure to electric fields (EF) of 30 or 60 kV/m. Here, the authors report the results of two experiments, each consisting of 6 week preexposure, exposure, and postexposure periods. They found no evidence of work stoppage with fields of 6 kV/m and 50 {micro}T (0.5 G) or with 30 kV/m and 100 {micro}T (1.0 G). In neither experiment was there evidence of an adverse effect of 60 Hz EMF exposure on MTS performance.

  12. An overview of health forecasting.

    PubMed

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2013-01-01

    Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.

  13. Inefficient stimulus processing at encoding affects formation of high-order general representation: A study on cross-modal word-stem completion task

    PubMed Central

    Sebastiani, Laura; Castellani, Eleonora; Gemignani, Angelo; Artoni, Fiorenzo; Menicucci, Danilo

    2016-01-01

    Priming is an implicit memory effect in which previous exposure to one stimulus influences the response to another stimulus. The main characteristic of priming is that it occurs without awareness. Priming takes place also when the physical attributes of previously studied and test stimuli do not match; in fact, it greatly refers to a general stimulus representation activated at encoding independently of the sensory modality engaged. Our aim was to evaluate whether, in a cross-modal word-stem completion task, negative priming scores could depend on inefficient word processing at study and therefore on an altered stimulus representation. Words were presented in the auditory modality, and word-stems to be completed in the visual modality. At study, we recorded auditory ERPs, and compared the P300 (attention/memory) and N400 (meaning processing) of individuals with positive and negative priming. Besides classical averaging-based ERPs analysis, we used an ICA-based method (ErpICASSO) to separate the potentials related to different processes contributing to ERPs. Classical analysis yielded significant difference between the two waves across the whole scalp. ErpICASSO allowed separating the novelty-related P3a and the top-down control-related P3b sub-components of P300. Specifically, in the component C3, the positive deflection identifiable as P3b, was significantly greater in the positive than in the negative priming group, while the late negative deflection corresponding to the parietal N400, was reduced in the positive priming group. In conclusion, inadequacy of specific processes at encoding, such as attention and/or meaning retrieval, could generate weak semantic representations, making words less accessible in subsequent implicit retrieval. PMID:26168892

  14. Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2010-01-01

    The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded

  15. Intermittent Demand Forecasting in a Tertiary Pediatric Intensive Care Unit.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Chen-Yang; Chiang, Kuo-Liang; Chen, Meng-Yin

    2016-10-01

    Forecasts of the demand for medical supplies both directly and indirectly affect the operating costs and the quality of the care provided by health care institutions. Specifically, overestimating demand induces an inventory surplus, whereas underestimating demand possibly compromises patient safety. Uncertainty in forecasting the consumption of medical supplies generates intermittent demand events. The intermittent demand patterns for medical supplies are generally classified as lumpy, erratic, smooth, and slow-moving demand. This study was conducted with the purpose of advancing a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit's efforts to achieve a high level of accuracy in its forecasting of the demand for medical supplies. On this point, several demand forecasting methods were compared in terms of the forecast accuracy of each. The results confirm that applying Croston's method combined with a single exponential smoothing method yields the most accurate results for forecasting lumpy, erratic, and slow-moving demand, whereas the Simple Moving Average (SMA) method is the most suitable for forecasting smooth demand. In addition, when the classification of demand consumption patterns were combined with the demand forecasting models, the forecasting errors were minimized, indicating that this classification framework can play a role in improving patient safety and reducing inventory management costs in health care institutions. PMID:27562485

  16. Intermittent Demand Forecasting in a Tertiary Pediatric Intensive Care Unit.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Chen-Yang; Chiang, Kuo-Liang; Chen, Meng-Yin

    2016-10-01

    Forecasts of the demand for medical supplies both directly and indirectly affect the operating costs and the quality of the care provided by health care institutions. Specifically, overestimating demand induces an inventory surplus, whereas underestimating demand possibly compromises patient safety. Uncertainty in forecasting the consumption of medical supplies generates intermittent demand events. The intermittent demand patterns for medical supplies are generally classified as lumpy, erratic, smooth, and slow-moving demand. This study was conducted with the purpose of advancing a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit's efforts to achieve a high level of accuracy in its forecasting of the demand for medical supplies. On this point, several demand forecasting methods were compared in terms of the forecast accuracy of each. The results confirm that applying Croston's method combined with a single exponential smoothing method yields the most accurate results for forecasting lumpy, erratic, and slow-moving demand, whereas the Simple Moving Average (SMA) method is the most suitable for forecasting smooth demand. In addition, when the classification of demand consumption patterns were combined with the demand forecasting models, the forecasting errors were minimized, indicating that this classification framework can play a role in improving patient safety and reducing inventory management costs in health care institutions.

  17. Task-specific effects of reward on task switching.

    PubMed

    Umemoto, Akina; Holroyd, Clay B

    2015-07-01

    Although cognitive control and reinforcement learning have been researched extensively over the last few decades, only recently have studies investigated their interrelationship. An important unanswered question concerns how the control system decides what task to execute and how vigorously to carry out the task once selected. Based on a recent theory of control formulated according to principles of hierarchical reinforcement learning, we asked whether rewards can affect top-down control over task performance at the level of task representation. Participants were rewarded for correctly performing only one of two tasks in a standard task-switching experiment. Reaction times and error rates were lower for the reinforced task compared to the non-reinforced task. Moreover, the switch cost in error rates for the non-reinforced task was significantly larger compared to the reinforced task, especially for trials in which the imperative stimulus afforded different responses for the two tasks, resulting in a "non-paradoxical" asymmetric switch cost. These findings suggest that reinforcement at the task level resulted in greater application of top-down control rather than in stronger stimulus-response pathways for the rewarded task.

  18. Space weather forecasting: Past, Present, Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanzerotti, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    There have been revolutionary advances in electrical technologies over the last 160 years. The historical record demonstrates that space weather processes have often provided surprises in the implementation and operation of many of these technologies. The historical record also demonstrates that as the complexity of systems increase, including their interconnectedness and interoperability, they can become more susceptible to space weather effects. An engineering goal, beginning during the decades following the 1859 Carrington event, has been to attempt to forecast solar-produced disturbances that could affect technical systems, be they long grounded conductor-based or radio-based or required for exploration, or the increasingly complex systems immersed in the space environment itself. Forecasting of space weather events involves both frontier measurements and models to address engineering requirements, and industrial and governmental policies that encourage and permit creativity and entrepreneurship. While analogies of space weather forecasting to terrestrial weather forecasting are frequently made, and while many of the analogies are valid, there are also important differences. This presentation will provide some historical perspectives on the forecast problem, a personal assessment of current status of several areas including important policy issues, and a look into the not-too-distant future.

  19. Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst-Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joslyn, Susan; Savelli, Sonia; Nadav-Greenberg, Limor

    2011-01-01

    Many weather forecast providers believe that forecast uncertainty in the form of the worst-case scenario would be useful for general public end users. We tested this suggestion in 4 studies using realistic weather-related decision tasks involving high winds and low temperatures. College undergraduates, given the statistical equivalent of the…

  20. Efficiency of a real time flood forecasting system in the Alps and in the Apennines: deterministic versus ensemble predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossi, G.

    2009-04-01

    Real time hydrological forecasting is still a challenging task for most of the Italian territory, especially in mountain areas where both the topography and the meteorological forcing are affected by a strong spatial variability. Nevertheless there is an increasing request to provide some clues for the development of efficient real time flood forecasting systems, for warning population as well as for water management purposes. In this perspective the efficiency of a real time forecasting system needs to be investigated, with particular care to the uncertainty of the provided prediction and to how this prediction will be handled by water resources managers and land protection services. To this aim a real time flood forecasting system using both deterministic and ensemble meteorological predictions has been implemented at University of Brescia and applied to an Alpine area (the Toce River - Piemonte Region) and to an Apennine area (the Taro River - Emilia Romagna Region). The Map D- Phase experiment (autumn 2007) was a good test for the implemented system: daily rainfall fields provided by high resolution deterministic limited area meteorological models and esemble rainfall predictions provided by coarser resolution meteorological models could be used to force a hydrological model and produce either a single deterministic or an esemble of flood forecats. Namely only minor flood events occurred in the Alpine area in autumn 2007, while one major flood event affected the Taro river at the end of November 2007. Focusing on this major event the potentials of the forecasting system was tested and evaluated with reference also to the geographical and climatic characteristics of the investigated area.

  1. Forecasters of earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maximova, Lyudmila

    1987-07-01

    For the first time Soviet scientists have set up a bioseismological proving ground which will stage a systematic extensive experiment of using birds, ants, mountain rodents including marmots, which can dig holes in the Earth's interior to a depth of 50 meters, for the purpose of earthquake forecasting. Biologists have accumulated extensive experimental data on the impact of various electromagnetic fields, including fields of weak intensity, on living organisms. As far as mammals are concerned, electromagnetic waves with frequencies close to the brain's biorhythms have the strongest effect. How these observations can be used to forecast earthquakes is discussed.

  2. US industrial battery forecast

    SciTech Connect

    Hollingsworth, V. III

    1996-09-01

    Last year was strong year for the US industrial battery market with growth in all segments. Sales of industrial batteries in North America grew 19.2% in 1995, exceeding last year`s forecasted growth rate of 11.6%. The results of the recently completed BCI Membership Survey forecast 1996 sales to be up 10.5%, and to continue to increase at a 10.4% compound annual rate through the year 2000. This year`s survey includes further detail on the stationary battery market with the inclusion of less than 25 Ampere-Hour batteries for the first time.

  3. Phantosmia as a meteorological forecaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aiello, S. R.; Hirsch, A. R.

    2013-09-01

    In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia forecasted the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to forecast the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted.

  4. Forecast quality and predictability of severe extra-tropical cyclones in operational forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Owen, J. S. R.; Knippertz, P.; Trzeciak, T. M.

    2012-04-01

    Severe extratropical cyclones are the most damaging weather phenomena affecting Europe, frequently causing fatalities and severe economic losses. Reliable forecasts of such events on timescales of several days are crucial to warn the population and allow mitigating action to be taken. Funded by the AXA Research Fund, this study investigates how accurately eighteen historic damaging and/or intense storms over Europe were forecast by operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. An automatic tracking algorithm is used to identify the cyclones from gridded fields of mean-sea level pressure. As a first step, the evolution of the storms and the synoptic conditions in which they developed is examined based on re-analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The next step is to evaluate forecast performance by the ECMWF and the UK Met Office deterministic models looking at core pressure evolution and track for different forecast lead times. Finally, ECMWF ensemble predictions are used to investigate the predictability of the investigated storms through examining the forecast spread, again for different lead times. First results indicate that the quality of the forecasts varies widely across the storms; however, they confirm previous studies in that the cyclones' core pressures are generally less well predicted than their position. The extent to which these differences can be related to the type of storm and to the ensemble spread is currently under investigation. For example, are storms with a strong diabatic influence less well forecast than those where baroclinicity dominates? Are deterministic forecasts less reliable in situations with low predictability? Additionally, the magnitude of the forecast errors will be compared to those of less intense cyclones to see whether the most intense systems stand out in terms of their forecast quality and predictability. In the longer run, this work will feed into a broader project that

  5. Value assessment of a global hydrological forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; van Beek, E.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2012-04-01

    The inter-annual variability in streamflow presents risks and opportunities in the management of water resources systems. Reliable hydrological forecasts, effective communication and proper response allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. A global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value for these regions. FEWS-World system is developed for this purpose. It is based on the Delft-FEWS (flood early warning system) developed by Deltares and incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value as its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. For the assessment in historical simulation mode a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode the model was forced with ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from ECMWF. The results will be disseminated on the internet, and hopefully provide information that is valuable for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The results of the preliminary assessment show that although forecasting skill decreases with increasing lead time, the value of forecasts does not necessarily decrease. The forecast requirements and response options of several water related sectors was

  6. Forecasting Credit Hours.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bivin, David; Rooney, Patrick Michael

    1999-01-01

    This study used Tobit analysis to estimate retention probabilities and credit hours at two universities. Tobit was judged as appropriate for this problem because it recognizes the lower bound of zero on credit hours and incorporates this bound into parameter estimates and forecasts. Models are estimated for credit hours in a single year and…

  7. Education Planning: Pupil Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Royal Inst. of Public Administration, Reading (England). Local Government Operational Research Unit.

    This computer-based system of enrollment projection predicts up to seven years ahead the number of school children of each age and sex who will be in school. The main distinguishing feature of the system is the ability to detect well in advance small changes in the geographical distribution of children. Forecasts are made for zones that will yield…

  8. Federal Forecasters Directory, 1995.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.

    This directory lists employees of the federal government who are involved in forecasting for policy formation and trend prediction purposes. Job title, agency, business address, phone or e-mail number, and specialty areas are listed for each employee. Employees are listed for the following agencies: (1) Bureau of the Census; (2) Bureau of Economic…

  9. External Environmental Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lapin, Joel D.

    Representing current viewpoints of academics, futures experts, and social observers, this external environmental forecast presents projections and information of particular relevance to the future of Catonsville Community College. The following topics are examined: (1) population changes and implications for higher education; (2) state and local…

  10. Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2012-01-01

    Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation. PMID:22615533

  11. Evolutionary Forecast Engines for Solar Meteorology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coimbra, C. F.

    2012-12-01

    A detailed comparison of non-stationary regression and stochastic learning methods based on k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) approaches is carried out in order to develop high-fidelity solar forecast engines for several time horizons of interest. A hybrid GA/ANN method emerges as the most robust stochastic learning candidate. The GA/ANN approach In general the following decisions need to be made when creating an ANN-based solar forecast model: the ANN architecture: number of layers, numbers of neurons per layer; the preprocessing scheme; the fraction and distribution between training and testing data, and the meteorological and radiometric inputs. ANNs are very well suited to handle multivariate forecasting models due to their overall flexibility and nonlinear pattern recognition abilities. However, the forecasting skill of ANNs depends on a new set of parameters to be optimized within the context of the forecast model, which is the selection of input variables that most directly impact the fidelity of the forecasts. In a data rich scenario where irradiation, meteorological, and cloud cover data are available, it is not always evident which variables to include in the model a priori. New variables can also arise from data preprocessing such as smoothing or spectral decomposition. One way to avoid time-consuming trial-and-error approaches that have limited chance to result in optimal ANN topology and input selection is to couple the ANN with some optimization algorithm that scans the solution space and "evolves" the ANN structure. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are well suited for this task. Results and Discussion The models built upon the historical data of 2009 and 2010 are applied to the 2011 data without modifications or retraining. We consider 3 solar variability seasons or periods, which are subsets of the total error evaluation data set. The 3 periods are defined based on the solar variability study as: - a high

  12. Software forecasting as it is really done: A study of JPL software engineers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Griesel, Martha Ann; Hihn, Jairus M.; Bruno, Kristin J.; Fouser, Thomas J.; Tausworthe, Robert C.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a summary of the results to date of a Jet Propulsion Laboratory internally funded research task to study the costing process and parameters used by internally recognized software cost estimating experts. Protocol Analysis and Markov process modeling were used to capture software engineer's forecasting mental models. While there is significant variation between the mental models that were studied, it was nevertheless possible to identify a core set of cost forecasting activities, and it was also found that the mental models cluster around three forecasting techniques. Further partitioning of the mental models revealed clustering of activities, that is very suggestive of a forecasting lifecycle. The different forecasting methods identified were based on the use of multiple-decomposition steps or multiple forecasting steps. The multiple forecasting steps involved either forecasting software size or an additional effort forecast. Virtually no subject used risk reduction steps in combination. The results of the analysis include: the identification of a core set of well defined costing activities, a proposed software forecasting life cycle, and the identification of several basic software forecasting mental models. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the results for current individual and institutional practices.

  13. Putting Mathematical Tasks into Context

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nagle, Courtney R.; Styers, Jodie L.

    2015-01-01

    Although many factors affect students' mathematical activity during a lesson, the teacher's selection and implementation of tasks is arguably the most influential in determining the level of student engagement. Mathematical tasks are intended to focus students' attention on a particular mathematical concept and it is the careful developing and…

  14. Affective differences in Iowa Gambling Task performance associated with sexual risk taking and substance use among HIV-positive and HIV-negative men who have sex with men

    PubMed Central

    Golub, Sarit A.; Thompson, Louisa I.; Kowalczyk, William J.

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the relationship between emotional distress and decision-making in sexual risk and substance use behavior among 174 (ages 25 to 50, 53% black) men who have sex with men (MSM), a population at increased risk for HIV. The sample was stratified by HIV status. Measures of affective decision-making (Iowa Gambling Task, IGT, Bechara et al., 1994), depression, anxiety, sex acts, and substance use during the past 60 days were collected at our research center. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine the relationship between age, HIV status, anxiety, depression, and IGT performance in the prediction of number of risky sex acts and substance use days. Among those without anxiety or depression, both number of risky sex acts and drug use days decreased with better performance during risky trials (i.e., last two blocks) of the IGT. For those with higher rates of anxiety, but not depression, IGT risk trial performance and risky sex acts increased concomitantly. Anxiety also interacted with IGT performance across all trials to predict substance use, such that anxiety was associated with greater substance use among those with better IGT performance. The opposite was true for those with depression, but only during risk trials. HIV-positive participants reported fewer substance use days than HIV-negative participants, but there was no difference in association between behavior and IGT performance by HIV status. Our findings suggest that anxiety may exacerbate risk-taking behavior when affective decision-making ability is intact. The relationship between affective decision-making and risk taking may be sensitive to different profiles of emotional distress, as well as behavioral context. Investigations of affective decision-making in sexual risk taking and substance use should examine different distress profiles separately, with implications for HIV prevention efforts. PMID:26745769

  15. Influenza forecasting in human populations: a scoping review.

    PubMed

    Chretien, Jean-Paul; George, Dylan; Shaman, Jeffrey; Chitale, Rohit A; McKenzie, F Ellis

    2014-01-01

    Forecasts of influenza activity in human populations could help guide key preparedness tasks. We conducted a scoping review to characterize these methodological approaches and identify research gaps. Adapting the PRISMA methodology for systematic reviews, we searched PubMed, CINAHL, Project Euclid, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for publications in English since January 1, 2000 using the terms "influenza AND (forecast* OR predict*)", excluding studies that did not validate forecasts against independent data or incorporate influenza-related surveillance data from the season or pandemic for which the forecasts were applied. We included 35 publications describing population-based (N = 27), medical facility-based (N = 4), and regional or global pandemic spread (N = 4) forecasts. They included areas of North America (N = 15), Europe (N = 14), and/or Asia-Pacific region (N = 4), or had global scope (N = 3). Forecasting models were statistical (N = 18) or epidemiological (N = 17). Five studies used data assimilation methods to update forecasts with new surveillance data. Models used virological (N = 14), syndromic (N = 13), meteorological (N = 6), internet search query (N = 4), and/or other surveillance data as inputs. Forecasting outcomes and validation metrics varied widely. Two studies compared distinct modeling approaches using common data, 2 assessed model calibration, and 1 systematically incorporated expert input. Of the 17 studies using epidemiological models, 8 included sensitivity analysis. This review suggests need for use of good practices in influenza forecasting (e.g., sensitivity analysis); direct comparisons of diverse approaches; assessment of model calibration; integration of subjective expert input; operational research in pilot, real-world applications; and improved mutual understanding among modelers and public health officials.

  16. Statistical Short-Range Forecast Guidance for Cloud Ceilings Over the Shuttle Landing Facility

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.

    2001-01-01

    This report describes the results of the AMU's Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task. The cloud ceiling forecast over the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) is a critical element in determining whether a Shuttle should land. Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters find that ceilings at the SLF are challenging to forecast. The AMU was tasked to develop ceiling forecast equations to minimize the challenge. Studies in the literature that showed success in improving short-term forecasts of ceiling provided the basis for the AMU task. A 20-year record of cool-season hourly surface observations from stations in east-central Florida was used for the equation development. Two methods were used: an observations-based (OBS) method that incorporated data from all stations, and a persistence climatology (PCL) method used as the benchmark. Equations were developed for 1-, 2-, and 3-hour lead times at each hour of the day. A comparison between the two methods indicated that the OBS equations performed well and produced an improvement over the PCL equations. Therefore, the conclusion of the AMU study is that OBS equations produced more accurate forecasts than the PCL equations, and can be used in operations. They provide another tool with which to make the ceiling forecasts that are critical to safe Shuttle landings at KSC.

  17. A forecasting model of gaming revenues in Clark County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, B.; Bando, A.; Bassett, G.; Rosen, A.; Carlson, J.; Meenan, C.

    1992-04-01

    This paper describes the Western Area Gaming and Economic Response Simulator (WAGERS), a forecasting model that emphasizes the role of the gaming industry in Clark County, Nevada. It is designed to generate forecasts of gaming revenues in Clark County, whose regional economy is dominated by the gaming industry, an identify the exogenous variables that affect gaming revenues. This model will provide baseline forecasts of Clark County gaming revenues in order to assess changes in gaming related economic activity resulting from future events like the siting of a permanent high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain.

  18. Estimating the economic value of wind forecasting to utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Milligan, M.R.; Miller, A.H.; Chapman, F.

    1995-05-01

    Utilities are sometimes reluctant to assign capacity value to wind plants because they are an intermittent resource. One of the potential difficulties is that the output of a wind plant may not be known in advance, thereby making it difficult for the utility to consider wind output as firm. In this paper, we examine the economics of an accurate wind forecast, and provide a range of estimates calculated by a production cost model and real utility data. We discuss how an accurate forecast will affect resource scheduling and the mechanism by which resource scheduling can benefit from an accurate wind forecast.

  19. Medium range flood forecasts at global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voisin, N.; Wood, A. W.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Wood, E. F.

    2006-12-01

    While weather and climate forecast methods have advanced greatly over the last two decades, this capability has yet to be evidenced in mitigation of water-related natural hazards (primarily floods and droughts), especially in the developing world. Examples abound of extreme property damage and loss of life due to floods in the underdeveloped world. For instance, more than 4.5 million people were affected by the July 2000 flooding of the Mekong River and its tributaries in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand. The February- March 2000 floods in the Limpopo River of Mozambique caused extreme disruption to that country's fledgling economy. Mitigation of these events through advance warning has typically been modest at best. Despite the above noted improvement in weather and climate forecasts, there is at present no system for forecasting of floods globally, notwithstanding that the potential clearly exists. We describe a methodology that is eventually intended to generate global flood predictions routinely. It draws heavily from the experimental North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and the companion Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) for development of nowcasts, and the University of Washington Experimental Hydrologic Prediction System to develop ensemble hydrologic forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models which serve both as nowcasts (and hence reduce the need for in situ precipitation and other observations in parts of the world where surface networks are critically deficient) and provide forecasts for lead times as long as fifteen days. The heart of the hydrologic modeling system is the University of Washington/Princeton University Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model. In the prototype (tested using retrospective data), VIC is driven globally up to the time of forecast with daily ERA40 precipitation (rescaled on a monthly basis to a station-based global climatology), ERA40 wind, and ERA40

  20. Six-day PM 10 air quality forecasts for the Netherlands with the chemistry transport model Lotos-Euros

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Ruyter de Wildt, Martijn; Eskes, Henk; Manders, Astrid; Sauter, Ferd; Schaap, Martijn; Swart, Daan; van Velthoven, Peter

    2011-10-01

    In this work we study the ability of the chemistry transport model Lotos-Euros to forecast, with a range of six days, PM 10 concentrations and exceedances thereof. For both rural and non-rural locations in The Netherlands and based on one year of data, model performance does not deteriorate up to a lead time of three days. Thereafter the PM 10 forecast is increasingly affected by uncertainty in the meteorological forecast. However, up to a lead time of 6 days the forecast still has skill, beats persistence and complies with several performance criteria. The correlation between forecast and observations is between 0.66 and 0.70 for the first half of the forecast and remains above 0.54 until the end of the forecast range. Exceedances of the PM 10 concentration over thresholds are also forecasted with reasonable skill up to a forecast range of three days, after which a gradual deterioration sets in. The stability of the forecast displays the same behaviour. Up to a lead time of three days, the forecast remains reasonably stable with more than 80% of forecasted exceedances still present in all later shorter-term forecasts for the same date. Because exceedances can be forecasted with considerable skill a number of days in advance, the forecast can be used for applications that require a range of a few days, such as outdoor activities and the scheduling and implementation of short-term emission reduction measures.

  1. A pan-African Flood Forecasting System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiemig, V.; Bisselink, B.; Pappenberger, F.; Thielen, J.

    2014-05-01

    The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions of the ECMWF and critical hydrological thresholds. In this paper the predictive capability is investigated in a hindcast mode, by reproducing hydrological predictions for the year 2003 where important floods were observed. Results were verified with ground measurements of 36 subcatchments as well as with reports of various flood archives. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70% of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (>1 week) and large affected areas (>10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. The case study for "Save flooding" illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a large potential as an operational pan-African flood forecasting system, although issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

  2. Flood Warning and Forecasting System in Slovakia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leskova, Danica

    2016-04-01

    In 2015, it finished project Flood Warning and Forecasting System (POVAPSYS) as part of the flood protection in Slovakia till 2010. The aim was to build POVAPSYS integrated computerized flood forecasting and warning system. It took a qualitatively higher level of output meteorological and hydrological services in case of floods affecting large territorial units, as well as local flood events. It is further unfolding demands on performance and coordination of meteorological and hydrological services, troubleshooting observation, evaluation of data, fast communication, modeling and forecasting of meteorological and hydrological processes. Integration of all information entering and exiting to and from the project POVAPSYS provides Hydrological Flood Forecasting System (HYPOS). The system provides information on the current hydrometeorological situation and its evolution with the generation of alerts and notifications in case of exceeding predefined thresholds. HYPOS's functioning of the system requires flawless operability in critical situations while minimizing the loss of its key parts. HYPOS is a core part of the project POVAPSYS, it is a comprehensive software solutions based on a modular principle, providing data and processed information including alarms, in real time. In order to achieve full functionality of the system, in proposal, we have put emphasis on reliability, robustness, availability and security.

  3. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy.

  4. The forecaster's added value

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the

  5. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. PMID:26081307

  6. Task-specific Dystonias

    PubMed Central

    Torres-Russotto, Diego; Perlmutter, Joel S.

    2009-01-01

    Task-specific dystonias are primary focal dystonias characterized by excessive muscle contractions producing abnormal postures during selective motor activities that often involve highly skilled, repetitive movements. Historically these peculiar postures were considered psychogenic but have now been classified as forms of dystonia. Writer’s cramp is the most commonly identified task-specific dystonia and has features typical of this group of disorders. Symptoms may begin with lack of dexterity during performance of a specific motor task with increasingly abnormal posturing of the involved body part as motor activity continues. Initially, the dystonia may manifest only during the performance of the inciting task, but as the condition progresses it may also occur during other activities or even at rest. Neurological exam is usually unremarkable except for the dystonia-related abnormalities. Although the precise pathophysiology remains unclear, increasing evidence suggests reduced inhibition at different levels of the sensorimotor system. Symptomatic treatment options include oral medications, botulinum toxin injections, neurosurgical procedures, and adaptive strategies. Prognosis may vary depending upon body part involved and specific type of task affected. Further research may reveal new insights into the etiology, pathophysiology, natural history, and improved treatment of these conditions. PMID:18990127

  7. Technology 2005 : Reviews & Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kimura, Ken

    Nine Technical Committees (TC's) of the Fundamentals and Materials Society of IEE Japan have contributed their Review & Forecast articles to the present. Special Issue of the IEEJ Transaction on Fundamentals and Materials. So you can survey the state-of-the-art of the 9 different technical fields with these articles. The series of reviews were submitted in reply to the request by experts in the respective fields.

  8. Satellite freeze forecast system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    Provisions for back-up operations for the satellite freeze forecast system are discussed including software and hardware maintenance and DS/1000-1V linkage; troubleshooting; and digitized radar usage. The documentation developed; dissemination of data products via television and the IFAS computer network; data base management; predictive models; the installation of and progress towards the operational status of key stations; and digital data acquisition are also considered. The d addition of dew point temperature into the P-model is outlined.

  9. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  10. Multipurpose simulation systems for regional development forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Kostina, N.I.

    1995-09-01

    We examine the development of automaton-modeling multipurpose simulation systems as an efficient form of simulation software for MIS. Such systems constitute a single problem-oriented package of applications based on a general simulation model, which is equipped with a task source language, interaction tools, file management tools, and an output document editor. The simulation models are described by the method of probabilistic-automaton modeling, which ensures standard representation of models and standardization of the modeling algorithm. Examples of such systems include the demographic forecasting system DEPROG, the VOKON system for assessing the quality of consumer services in terms of free time, and the SONET system for servicing partially accessible customers. The development of computer-aided systems for production and economic control is now moving to the second state, namely operationalization of optimization and forecasting problems, whose solution may account for the main economic effect of MIS. Computation and information problems, which were the main focus of the first stage of MIS development, are thus acquiring the role of a source of information for optimization and forecasting problems in addition to their direct contribution to preparation and analysis of current production and economic information.

  11. Land-Breeze Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Wheeler, Mark M.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The nocturnal land breeze at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) is both operationally significant and challenging to forecast. The occurrence and timing of land breezes impact low-level winds, atmospheric stability, low temperatures, and fog development. Accurate predictions of the land breeze are critical for toxic material dispersion forecasts associated with space launch missions, since wind direction and low-level stability can change noticeably with the onset of a land breeze. This report presents a seven-year observational study of land breezes over east-central Florida from 1995 to 2001. This comprehensive analysis was enabled by the high-resolution tower observations over KSC/CCAFS. Five-minute observations of winds, temperature, and moisture along with 9 15-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler data were used to analyze specific land-breeze cases, while the tower data were used to construct a composite climatology. Utilities derived from this climatology were developed to assist forecasters in determining the land-breeze occurrence, timing, and movement based on predicted meteorological conditions.

  12. Global crop forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macdonald, R. B.; Hall, F. G.

    1980-01-01

    The needs for and remote sensing means of global crop forecasting are discussed, and key results of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) are presented. Current crop production estimates provided by foreign countries are shown often to be inadequate, and the basic elements of crop production forecasts are reviewed. The LACIE project is introduced as a proof-of-concept experiment designed to assimilate remote sensing technology, monitor global wheat production, evaluate key technical problems, modify the technique accordingly and demonstrate the feasibility of a global agricultural monitoring system. The global meteorological data, sampling and aggregation techniques, Landsat data analysis procedures and yield forecast procedures used in the experiment are outlined. Accuracy assessment procedures employed to evaluate LACIE technology performance are presented, and improvements in system efficiency and capacity during the three years of operation are pointed out. Results of LACIE estimates of Soviet, U.S. and Canadian wheat production are presented which demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the remote-sensing approach for global food and fiber monitoring.

  13. Understanding Farmers’ Forecast Use from Their Beliefs, Values, Social Norms, and Perceived Obstacles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Qi; Pytlik Zillig, Lisa M.; Lynne, Gary D.; Tomkins, Alan J.; Waltman, William J.; Hayes, Michael J.; Hubbard, Kenneth G.; Artikov, Ikrom; Hoffman, Stacey J.; Wilhite, Donald A.

    2006-09-01

    Although the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts is continuously improving and new information retrieved from climate data is adding to the understanding of climate variation, use of the forecasts and climate information by farmers in farming decisions has changed little. This lack of change may result from knowledge barriers and psychological, social, and economic factors that undermine farmer motivation to use forecasts and climate information. According to the theory of planned behavior (TPB), the motivation to use forecasts may arise from personal attitudes, social norms, and perceived control or ability to use forecasts in specific decisions. These attributes are examined using data from a survey designed around the TPB and conducted among farming communities in the region of eastern Nebraska and the western U.S. Corn Belt. There were three major findings: 1) the utility and value of the forecasts for farming decisions as perceived by farmers are, on average, around 3.0 on a 0 7 scale, indicating much room to improve attitudes toward the forecast value. 2) The use of forecasts by farmers to influence decisions is likely affected by several social groups that can provide “expert viewpoints” on forecast use. 3) A major obstacle, next to forecast accuracy, is the perceived identity and reliability of the forecast makers. Given the rapidly increasing number of forecasts in this growing service business, the ambiguous identity of forecast providers may have left farmers confused and may have prevented them from developing both trust in forecasts and skills to use them. These findings shed light on productive avenues for increasing the influence of forecasts, which may lead to greater farming productivity. In addition, this study establishes a set of reference points that can be used for comparisons with future studies to quantify changes in forecast use and influence.

  14. A quality assessment of the MARS crop yield forecasting system for the European Union

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Velde, Marijn; Bareuth, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Timely information on crop production forecasts can become of increasing importance as commodity markets are more and more interconnected. Impacts across large crop production areas due to (e.g.) extreme weather and pest outbreaks can create ripple effects that may affect food prices and availability elsewhere. The MARS Unit (Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS), DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission, has been providing forecasts of European crop production levels since 1993. The operational crop production forecasting is carried out with the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (M-CYFS). The M-CYFS is used to monitor crop growth development, evaluate short-term effects of anomalous meteorological events, and provide monthly forecasts of crop yield at national and European Union level. The crop production forecasts are published in the so-called MARS bulletins. Forecasting crop yield over large areas in the operational context requires quality benchmarks. Here we present an analysis of the accuracy and skill of past crop yield forecasts of the main crops (e.g. soft wheat, grain maize), throughout the growing season, and specifically for the final forecast before harvest. Two simple benchmarks to assess the skill of the forecasts were defined as comparing the forecasts to 1) a forecast equal to the average yield and 2) a forecast using a linear trend established through the crop yield time-series. These reveal a variability in performance as a function of crop and Member State. In terms of production, the yield forecasts of 67% of the EU-28 soft wheat production and 80% of the EU-28 maize production have been forecast superior to both benchmarks during the 1993-2013 period. In a changing and increasingly variable climate crop yield forecasts can become increasingly valuable - provided they are used wisely. We end our presentation by discussing research activities that could contribute to this goal.

  15. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    PubMed Central

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Method In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012–2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. Results According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (−€9,367 million), France

  16. Phantosmia as a meteorological forecaster.

    PubMed

    Aiello, S R; Hirsch, A R

    2013-09-01

    In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia forecasted the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to forecast the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted. PMID:23456373

  17. Phantosmia as a meteorological forecaster.

    PubMed

    Aiello, S R; Hirsch, A R

    2013-09-01

    In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia forecasted the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to forecast the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted.

  18. Forecasting Zakat collection using artificial neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sy Ahmad Ubaidillah, Sh. Hafizah; Sallehuddin, Roselina

    2013-04-01

    'Zakat', "that which purifies" or "alms", is the giving of a fixed portion of one's wealth to charity, generally to the poor and needy. It is one of the five pillars of Islam, and must be paid by all practicing Muslims who have the financial means (nisab). 'Nisab' is the minimum level to determine whether there is a 'zakat' to be paid on the assets. Today, in most Muslim countries, 'zakat' is collected through a decentralized and voluntary system. Under this voluntary system, 'zakat' committees are established, which are tasked with the collection and distribution of 'zakat' funds. 'Zakat' promotes a more equitable redistribution of wealth, and fosters a sense of solidarity amongst members of the 'Ummah'. The Malaysian government has established a 'zakat' center at every state to facilitate the management of 'zakat'. The center has to have a good 'zakat' management system to effectively execute its functions especially in the collection and distribution of 'zakat'. Therefore, a good forecasting model is needed. The purpose of this study is to develop a forecasting model for Pusat Zakat Pahang (PZP) to predict the total amount of collection from 'zakat' of assets more precisely. In this study, two different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models using two different learning algorithms are developed; Back Propagation (BP) and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM). Both models are developed and compared in terms of their accuracy performance. The best model is determined based on the lowest mean square error and the highest correlations values. Based on the results obtained from the study, BP neural network is recommended as the forecasting model to forecast the collection from 'zakat' of assets for PZP.

  19. Forecast Inaccuracies in Power Plant Projects From Project Managers' Perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanabria, Orlando

    Guided by organizational theory, this phenomenological study explored the factors affecting forecast preparation and inaccuracies during the construction of fossil fuel-fired power plants in the United States. Forecast inaccuracies can create financial stress and uncertain profits during the project construction phase. A combination of purposeful and snowball sampling supported the selection of participants. Twenty project managers with over 15 years of experience in power generation and project experience across the United States were interviewed within a 2-month period. From the inductive codification and descriptive analysis, 5 themes emerged: (a) project monitoring, (b) cost control, (c) management review frequency, (d) factors to achieve a precise forecast, and (e) factors causing forecast inaccuracies. The findings of the study showed the factors necessary to achieve a precise forecast includes a detailed project schedule, accurate labor cost estimates, monthly project reviews and risk assessment, and proper utilization of accounting systems to monitor costs. The primary factors reported as causing forecast inaccuracies were cost overruns by subcontractors, scope gaps, labor cost and availability of labor, and equipment and material cost. Results of this study could improve planning accuracy and the effective use of resources during construction of power plants. The study results could contribute to social change by providing a framework to project managers to lessen forecast inaccuracies, and promote construction of power plants that will generate employment opportunities and economic development.

  20. Forecasting Istanbul monthly temperature by multivariate partial least square

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ertaç, Mefharet; Firuzan, Esin; Solum, Şenol

    2015-07-01

    Weather forecasting, especially for temperature, has always been a popular subject since it affects our daily life and always includes uncertainty as statistics does. The goals of this study are (a) to forecast monthly mean temperature by benefitting meteorological variables like temperature, humidity and rainfall; and (b) to improve the forecast ability by evaluating the forecasting errors depending upon the parameter changes and local or global forecasting methods. Approximately 100 years of meteorological data from 54 automatic meteorology observation stations of Istanbul that is the mega city of Turkey are analyzed to infer about the meteorological behaviour of the city. A new partial least square (PLS) forecasting technique based on chaotic analysis is also developed by using nonlinear time series and variable selection methods. The proposed model is also compared with artificial neural networks (ANNs), which model nonlinearly the relation between inputs and outputs by working neurons like human brain. Ordinary least square (OLS), PLS and ANN methods are used for nonlinear time series forecasting in this study. Major findings are the chaotic nature of the meteorological data of Istanbul and the best performance values of the proposed PLS model.

  1. Hydrological Forecasting Practices in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Fernando; Paiva, Rodrigo; Collischonn, Walter; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2016-04-01

    This work brings a review on current hydrological and flood forecasting practices in Brazil, including the main forecasts applications, the different kinds of techniques that are currently being employed and the institutions involved on forecasts generation. A brief overview of Brazil is provided, including aspects related to its geography, climate, hydrology and flood hazards. A general discussion about the Brazilian practices on hydrological short and medium range forecasting is presented. Detailed examples of some hydrological forecasting systems that are operational or in a research/pre-operational phase using the large scale hydrological model MGB-IPH are also presented. Finally, some suggestions are given about how the forecasting practices in Brazil can be understood nowadays, and what are the perspectives for the future.

  2. Improving High-resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with Upgraded Kain-Fritsch Cumulus Scheme

    EPA Science Inventory

    High-resolution weather forecasting is affected by many aspects, i.e. model initial conditions, subgrid-scale cumulus convection and cloud microphysics schemes. Recent 12km grid studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have identified the importance of inco...

  3. Ensemble postprocessing for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bentzien, S.; Friederichs, P.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation is one of the most difficult weather variables to predict in hydrometeorological applications. In order to assess the uncertainty inherent in deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP), meteorological services around the globe develop ensemble prediction systems (EPS) based on high-resolution NWP systems. With non-hydrostatic model dynamics and without parameterization of deep moist convection, high-resolution NWP models are able to describe convective processes in more detail and provide more realistic mesoscale structures. However, precipitation forecasts are still affected by displacement errors, systematic biases and fast error growth on small scales. Probabilistic guidance can be achieved from an ensemble setup which accounts for model error and uncertainty of initial and boundary conditions. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) provides such an ensemble system based on the German-focused limited-area model COSMO-DE. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2.8 km, COSMO-DE is the convection-permitting high-resolution part of the operational model chain at DWD. The COSMO-DE-EPS consists of 20 realizations of COSMO-DE, driven by initial and boundary conditions derived from 4 global models and 5 perturbations of model physics. Ensemble systems like COSMO-DE-EPS are often limited with respect to ensemble size due to the immense computational costs. As a consequence, they can be biased and exhibit insufficient ensemble spread, and probabilistic forecasts may be not well calibrated. In this study, probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts are derived from COSMO-DE-EPS and evaluated at more than 1000 rain gauges located all over Germany. COSMO-DE-EPS is a frequently updated ensemble system, initialized 8 times a day. We use the time-lagged approach to inexpensively increase ensemble spread, which results in more reliable forecasts especially for extreme precipitation events. Moreover, we will show that statistical

  4. Numerical weather forecasting with anelastic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wójcik, Damian; Kurowski, Marcin; Piotrowski, Zbigniew; Rosa, Bogdan; Ziemiański, Michał

    2013-04-01

    Research conducted at Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute, in collaboration with Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) are aimed at developing new conservative dynamical core for next generation operational weather prediction model. Within the frames of the project a new prototype model has been developed. The dynamical core of the model is based on anelastic set of equation and numerics adopted from the EULAG model. An employment of EULAG allowed to profit from its desirable conservative properties and numerical robustness confirmed in number of benchmark tests and widely documented in scientific literature. The first stage of the project has been already successfully completed. Its main achievement is a hybrid model capable to compute weather forecast. The model consists of EULAG dynamical core implemented into the software environment of the operational COSMO model and basic COSMO physical parameterizations involving turbulence, friction, radiation, moist processes and surface fluxes (COSMO-EULAG). The presentation shows the case studies comparing results of 24-hour forecasts calculated via the hybrid model with analogous results obtained with the Runge-Kutta dynamical core standard for the COSMO operational applications. The experiments are performed with 2.2 km resolution over Alpine domain of operational MeteoSwiss numerical forecasts. The results demonstrate that the short-term forecasts employing different dynamical cores are qualitatively and quantitatively similar, especially in the middle and upper troposphere. Near the surface the COSMO-EULAG results, while similar to the Runge-Kutta ones, show more small-scale variability. It is seen that the anelastic approximation does not impose measurable adverse affects on the forecast. The presentation shows also results of another class of experiments. They involve 24-hour forecast with COSMO-EULAG over realistic Alpine domain with the horizontal resolutions of

  5. Real-time multi-step-ahead water level forecasting by recurrent neural networks for urban flood control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Fi-John; Chen, Pin-An; Lu, Ying-Ray; Huang, Eric; Chang, Kai-Yao

    2014-09-01

    Urban flood control is a crucial task, which commonly faces fast rising peak flows resulting from urbanization. To mitigate future flood damages, it is imperative to construct an on-line accurate model to forecast inundation levels during flood periods. The Yu-Cheng Pumping Station located in Taipei City of Taiwan is selected as the study area. Firstly, historical hydrologic data are fully explored by statistical techniques to identify the time span of rainfall affecting the rise of the water level in the floodwater storage pond (FSP) at the pumping station. Secondly, effective factors (rainfall stations) that significantly affect the FSP water level are extracted by the Gamma test (GT). Thirdly, one static artificial neural network (ANN) (backpropagation neural network-BPNN) and two dynamic ANNs (Elman neural network-Elman NN; nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs-NARX network) are used to construct multi-step-ahead FSP water level forecast models through two scenarios, in which scenario I adopts rainfall and FSP water level data as model inputs while scenario II adopts only rainfall data as model inputs. The results demonstrate that the GT can efficiently identify the effective rainfall stations as important inputs to the three ANNs; the recurrent connections from the output layer (NARX network) impose more effects on the output than those of the hidden layer (Elman NN) do; and the NARX network performs the best in real-time forecasting. The NARX network produces coefficients of efficiency within 0.9-0.7 (scenario I) and 0.7-0.5 (scenario II) in the testing stages for 10-60-min-ahead forecasts accordingly. This study suggests that the proposed NARX models can be valuable and beneficial to the government authority for urban flood control.

  6. Seasonal Climate Forecasts: Value to Hydropower Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howard, C.

    2006-12-01

    Forecasts that directly affect society are produced by a cascade of natural processes time series models and water management decisions. Seasonal climate predictions are at the top of this cascade, but their importance is not obvious. At the bottom of the cascade are the models that influence water management and energy generation decisions -- this is the level at which the societal benefits are realized most directly. Climate predictions are stochastic and additional uncertainties and errors are introduced at each step in the cascade of models. Metrological parameters such as temperature, precipitation, wind, and solar radiation affect the loads on power systems, the thermal and hydro power generation schedules, and the consequent reservoir and river operations required to protect instream ecological systems. These outcomes are managed by predictive models of one type or another, each with limitations in model formulation and ancillary data. It is not obvious that water management might realize large benefits from seasonal climate forecasts. A suite of models is used to illustrate how decisions are made for hydroelectric operations and discusses the benefits that might be expected from improvements in hydrologic forecasting.

  7. Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spessa, A. C.; Field, R. D.; Pappenberger, F.; Langner, A.; Englhart, S.; Weber, U.; Stockdale, T.; Siegert, F.; Kaiser, J. W.; Moore, J.

    2015-03-01

    Large-scale fires occur frequently across Indonesia, particularly in the southern region of Kalimantan and eastern Sumatra. They have considerable impacts on carbon emissions, haze production, biodiversity, health, and economic activities. In this study, we demonstrate that severe fire and haze events in Indonesia can generally be predicted months in advance using predictions of seasonal rainfall from the ECMWF System 4 coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Based on analyses of long, up-to-date series observations on burnt area, rainfall, and tree cover, we demonstrate that fire activity is negatively correlated with rainfall and is positively associated with deforestation in Indonesia. There is a contrast between the southern region of Kalimantan (high fire activity, high tree cover loss, and strong non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire) and the central region of Kalimantan (low fire activity, low tree cover loss, and weak, non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire). The ECMWF seasonal forecast provides skilled forecasts of burnt and fire-affected area with several months lead time explaining at least 70% of the variance between rainfall and burnt and fire-affected area. Results are strongly influenced by El Niño years which show a consistent positive bias. Overall, our findings point to a high potential for using a more physical-based method for predicting fires with several months lead time in the tropics rather than one based on indexes only. We argue that seasonal precipitation forecasts should be central to Indonesia's evolving fire management policy.

  8. Oak Ridge Health Studies Phase 1 report, Volume 2: Part C, Dose Reconstruction Feasibility Study. Tasks 5: A summary of information concerning historical locations and activities of populations potentially affected by releases from the Oak Ridge Reservation

    SciTech Connect

    DaMassa, C.L.; Widner, T.E.

    1993-09-01

    A significant number of information sources have been identified that are relevant to historical locations and activities of populations potentially affected by releases from the Oak Ridge Reservation. The information that has been reviewed as part of this Task 5 investigation has shown that numerous residences and farms have historically been present near the ORR boundary and that a variety of land uses and recreational activities have been practiced. Based on this information alone, it would appear that many routes of off-site exposure could have been plausible. Most of the available published information addresses demographic and land use data on a regional or county-wide basis over fairly broad time periods. The information sources that are most readily available do not support direct evaluation of potential exposure pathways at specific geographic locations near the Oak Ridge facilities at specific points in time. A number of information sources have been identified that can provide demography and land use information more specific to locations and time periods that are identified to be of interest. Examples of data sources in this category include individual USGS topographic maps, aerial photographs, lowest-level census tract data, and interviews with long-time local residents. However, specific release events and periods of interest should be identified prior to attempts to collect more specific demographic or land use information for actual dose reconstruction.

  9. Forecasting droughts in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Dutra, E.; Di Giuseppe, F.; Pappenberger, F.

    2014-02-01

    The humanitarian crises caused by the recent droughts (2008-2009 and 2010-2011) in East Africa have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought forecasts with sufficient lead time is essential. The use of dynamical model precipitation forecasts in combination with drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), can potentially lead to a better description of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. This study evaluates the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF seasonal precipitation shows significant skill for March-May and October-December rain seasons when evaluated against measurements from the available in situ stations from East Africa. The forecast for October-December rain season has higher skill than for the March-May season. ECMWF forecasts add value to the consensus forecasts produced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), which is the present operational product for precipitation forecast over East Africa. Complementing the original ECMWF precipitation forecasts with SPI provides additional information on the spatial extent and intensity of the drought event.

  10. Hydrologic Forecasting and Hydropower Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wigmosta, M. S.; Voisin, N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Coleman, A.; Mishra, V.; Schaner, N. A.

    2011-12-01

    Hydroelectric power production is one of many competing demands for available water along with other priority uses such as irrigation, thermoelectric cooling, municipal, recreation, and environmental performance. Increasingly, hydroelectric generation is being used to offset the intermittent nature of some renewable energy sources such as wind-generated power. An accurate forecast of the magnitude and timing of water supply assists managers in integrated planning and operations to balance competing water uses against current and future supply while protecting against the possibility of water or energy shortages and excesses with real-time actions. We present a medium-range to seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system where uncertainty in forecasts is addressed explicitly. The integrated forecast system makes use of remotely-sensed data and automated spatial and temporal data assimilation. Remotely-sensed snow cover, observed snow water equivalent, and observed streamflow data are used to update the hydrologic model state prior to the forecast. In forecast mode, the hydrology model is forced by calibrated ensemble weather/climate forecasts. This system will be fully integrated into a water optimization toolset to inform reservoir and power operations, and guide environmental performance decision making. This flow forecast system development is carried out in agreement with the National Weather Service so that the system can later be incorporated into the NOAA eXperimental Ensemble Forecast Service (XEFS).

  11. Solar Indices Forecasting Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henney, Carl John; Shurkin, Kathleen; Arge, Charles; Hill, Frank

    2016-05-01

    Progress to forecast key space weather parameters using SIFT (Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) with the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model is highlighted in this presentation. Using a magnetic flux transport model, ADAPT, we estimate the solar near-side field distribution that is used as input into empirical models for predicting F10.7(solar 10.7 cm, 2.8 GHz, radio flux), the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, and selected bands of solar far ultraviolet (FUV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. Input to the ADAPT model includes the inferred photospheric magnetic field from the NISP ground-based instruments, GONG & VSM. Besides a status update regarding ADAPT and SIFT models, we will summarize the findings that: 1) the sum of the absolute value of strong magnetic fields, associated with sunspots, is shown to correlate well with the observed daily F10.7 variability (Henney et al. 2012); and 2) the sum of the absolute value of weak magnetic fields, associated with plage regions, is shown to correlate well with EUV and FUV irradiance variability (Henney et al. 2015). This work utilizes data produced collaboratively between Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and the National Solar Observatory (NSO). The ADAPT model development is supported by AFRL. The input data utilized by ADAPT is obtained by NISP (NSO Integrated Synoptic Program). NSO is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA), Inc., under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF). The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data service, utilized by the ADAPT/SIFT F10.7 forecasting model, is operated by the National Research Council of Canada and National Resources Canada, with the support of the Canadian Space Agency.

  12. Accuracy of short‐term sea ice drift forecasts using a coupled ice‐ocean model

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Arctic sea ice drift forecasts of 6 h–9 days for the summer of 2014 are generated using the Marginal Ice Zone Modeling and Assimilation System (MIZMAS); the model is driven by 6 h atmospheric forecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2). Forecast ice drift speed is compared to drifting buoys and other observational platforms. Forecast positions are compared with actual positions 24 h–8 days since forecast. Forecast results are further compared to those from the forecasts generated using an ice velocity climatology driven by multiyear integrations of the same model. The results are presented in the context of scheduling the acquisition of high‐resolution images that need to follow buoys or scientific research platforms. RMS errors for ice speed are on the order of 5 km/d for 24–48 h since forecast using the sea ice model compared with 9 km/d using climatology. Predicted buoy position RMS errors are 6.3 km for 24 h and 14 km for 72 h since forecast. Model biases in ice speed and direction can be reduced by adjusting the air drag coefficient and water turning angle, but the adjustments do not affect verification statistics. This suggests that improved atmospheric forecast forcing may further reduce the forecast errors. The model remains skillful for 8 days. Using the forecast model increases the probability of tracking a target drifting in sea ice with a 10 km × 10 km image from 60 to 95% for a 24 h forecast and from 27 to 73% for a 48 h forecast.

  13. Weather Forecasting Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Weather forecasters are usually very precise in reporting such conditions as temperature, wind velocity and humidity. They also provide exact information on barometric pressure at a given moment, and whether the barometer is "rising" or "falling"- but not how rapidly or how slowly it is rising or falling. Until now, there has not been available an instrument which measures precisely the current rate of change of barometric pressure. A meteorological instrument called a barograph traces the historical ups and downs of barometric pressure and plots a rising or falling curve, but, updated every three hours, it is only momentarily accurate at each updating.

  14. Forecast Mekong: 2011 update

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    In 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton joined with the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam in launching the Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with the Lower Mekong countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Part of the Lower Mekong Initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey's Forecast Mekong project is engaging the United States in scientific research relevant to environmental issues in the Lower Mekong River countries and is staying the course in support of the Mekong Nations with a suite of new projects for 2011.

  15. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  16. Consequences Identification in Forecasting and Ethical Decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Stenmark, Cheryl K.; Antes, Alison L.; Thiel, Chase E.; Caughron, Jared J.; Wang, Xiaoqian; Mumford, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    Forecasting involves predicting outcomes based on observations of the situation at hand. We examined the impact of the number and types of consequences considered on the quality of ethical decision-making. Undergraduates role-played several ethical problems in which they forecast potential outcomes and made decisions. Performance pressure (difficult demands placed on the situation) and interpersonal conflict (clashes among people in the problem situation) were manipulated within each problem scenario. The results indicated that the identification of potential consequences was positively associated with both higher quality forecasts and more ethical decisions. Neither performance pressure nor interpersonal conflict affected the quality of forecasts or decisions. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings and the use of this research approach are discussed. PMID:21460584

  17. Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotz, S.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography. These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi

  18. Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotz, S. P.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

    2012-12-01

    The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC). These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as

  19. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  20. Adaptive forecasting of aftershock activity after the main shock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2014-05-01

    Forecasting aftershock activity is useful to reduce seismic risks in the affected area after the main shock. The difficulties to forecast aftershocks are (i) a forecasting model should be tailored to each aftershock sequence because the statistical property varies greatly according to an individual aftershock sequence and (ii) the forecasting model has to be estimated from highly deficient data where a significant fraction of early small aftershocks are missing from seismic records. To overcome this difficulty, we have been developing a statistical model to deal with incompletely detected aftershocks, in which the detection rate of aftershocks is sequentially estimated in a state-space modeling approach. Our method enables us to robustly estimate the forecasting model of underlying aftershocks including not only observed aftershocks but also missing ones from the incomplete catalog. We show that the Omori-Utsu formula can be well estimated only from a few hours of the data, and then it can be revised by the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model to adaptively forecast an aftershock sequence with the individual cascading feature as the data size increases in real-time. We demonstrate that how these estimated models can effectively forecast the aftershock activity. We also discuss how these models can be implemented in an operational system for earthquake forecasting. References: T. Omi, Y. Ogata, Y. Hirata, and K. Aihiara, "Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock", Scientific Reports, 3, 2218 (2013). T. Omi, Y. Ogata, Y. Hirata, and K. Aihiara, "Estimating the ETAS model from an early aftershock sequence", (In submission).

  1. A hydrometeorological forecasting approach for basins with complex flow regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarkadoulas, Akis; Mantesi, Konstantina; Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koussis, Antonis; Mazi, Aikaterini; Katsanos, Demetris; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2015-04-01

    The combined use of weather forecasting models and hydrological models in flood risk estimations is an established technique, with several successful applications worldwide. However, most known hydrometeorological forecasting systems have been established in large rivers with perpetual flow. Experience from small- and medium-scale basins, which are often affected by flash floods, is very limited. In this work we investigate the perspectives of hydrometeorological forecasting, by emphasizing two issues: (a) which modelling approach can credibly represent the complex dynamics of basins with highly variable runoff (intermittent or ephemeral); and (b) which transformation of point-precipitation forecasts provides the most reliable estimations of spatially aggregated data, to be used as inputs to semi-distributed hydrological models. Using as case studies the Sarantapotamos river basin, in Eastern Greece (145 km2), and the Nedontas river basin, in SW Peloponnese (120 km2), we demonstrate the advantages of continuous simulation through the HYDROGEIOS model. This employs conjunctive modelling of surface and groundwater flows and their interactions (percolation, infiltration, underground losses), which are key processes in river basins characterized by significantly variability of runoff. The model was calibrated against hourly flow data at two and three hydrometric stations, respectively, for a 3-year period (2011-2014). Next we attempted to reproduce the most intense flood events of that period, by substituting observed rainfall by forecast scenarios. In this respect, we used consecutive point forecasts of a 6-hour lead time, provided by the numerical weather prediction model WRF (Advanced Research version), dynamically downscaled from the ~1° forecast of GSF-NCEP/NOAA successively first to ~18 km, then to ~6 km and ultimately at the horizontal grid resolution of 2x2 km2. We examined alternative spatial integration approaches, using as reference the rainfall stations

  2. Task Switching Effects in Anticipation Timing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fairbrother, Jeffrey T.; Brueckner, Sebastian

    2008-01-01

    To understand how task switching affects human performance, there is a need to investigate how it influences the performance of tasks other than those involving bivalent stimulus categorization. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to investigate the effects of task switching on anticipation timing performance, which typically requires…

  3. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 3 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 3 compares flight plans developed on the Suitland forecast with actual data observed by the aircraft (and averaged over 10 degree segments). The results show that the average difference between the forecast and observed wind speed is 9 kts. without considering direction, and the average difference in the component of the forecast wind parallel to the direction of the observed wind is 13 kts. - both indicating that the Suitland forecast underestimates the wind speeds. The Root Mean Square (RMS) vector error is 30.1 kts. The average absolute difference in direction between the forecast and observed wind is 26 degrees and the temperature difference is 3 degree Centigrade. These results indicate that the forecast model as well as the verifying analysis used to develop comparison flight plans in Tasks 1 and 2 is a limiting factor and that the average potential fuel savings or penalty are up to 3.6 percent depending on the direction of flight.

  4. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  5. The pioneers of weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, Susan

    2016-01-01

    In The Weather Experiment author Peter Moore takes us on a compelling journey through the early history of weather forecasting, bringing to life the personalities, lives and achievements of the men who put in place the building blocks required for forecasts to be possible.

  6. Application of satellite-based rainfall and medium range meteorological forecast in real-time flood forecasting in the Mahanadi River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nanda, Trushnamayee; Beria, Harsh; Sahoo, Bhabagrahi; Chatterjee, Chandranath

    2016-04-01

    Increasing frequency of hydrologic extremes in a warming climate call for the development of reliable flood forecasting systems. The unavailability of meteorological parameters in real-time, especially in the developing parts of the world, makes it a challenging task to accurately predict flood, even at short lead times. The satellite-based Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provides an alternative to the real-time precipitation data scarcity. Moreover, rainfall forecasts by the numerical weather prediction models such as the medium term forecasts issued by the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are promising for multistep-ahead flow forecasts. We systematically evaluate these rainfall products over a large catchment in Eastern India (Mahanadi River basin). We found spatially coherent trends, with both the real-time TRMM rainfall and ECMWF rainfall forecast products overestimating low rainfall events and underestimating high rainfall events. However, no significant bias was found for the medium rainfall events. Another key finding was that these rainfall products captured the phase of the storms pretty well, but suffered from consistent under-prediction. The utility of the real-time TRMM and ECMWF forecast products are evaluated by rainfall-runoff modeling using different artificial neural network (ANN)-based models up to 3-days ahead. Keywords: TRMM; ECMWF; forecast; ANN; rainfall-runoff modeling

  7. Forecasting Bz at Earth - an Operational Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzo, V. J.

    2014-12-01

    observation - this is not at all a straightforward task and real progress in this area hinges upon sensible and honest evaluation forecast performance.

  8. The Ofidia Project: a Retrospective Fire Danger Forecast Analysis in Mediterranean Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sirca, C.; Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Mirto, L.; Fiore, S.; Aloisio, G.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    OFIDIA (Operational FIre Danger preventIon plAtform) is a two-year project started in May 2013 funded by the European Territorial Cooperation Programme Greece Italy (2007 - 2013). The project aims to improve the operational capability of forecasting, preventing, and fighting forest wildfires, and enhance the cross-border cooperation for fire danger assessment. More specifically, OFIDIA aims at developing an operational fire danger prevention platform, with the ability for near real-time fire danger forecast and fire behaviour analysis in Apulia (Italy) and Epirus (Greece) regions to help forest fires services in the effective prevention and response to forecasted danger.One of the preliminary activities of the project was the evaluation of fire danger performances by analysing the relationship between the predicted daily fire danger and observed fire activity (number of fires and area burned). To achieve this task, fire activity and danger patterns were characterised and their relationships were investigated for the period 2000-2012. The Italian Forest Service (CFS, Corpo Forestale dello Stato) provided fire statistics at NUT03 level. The data were homogenized and uncertainties corrected, and then burned area and number of fires were analysed according to the main fire regime characteristics (seasonality, fire return interval, fire incidence, fire size distribution, etc). Then, three fire danger models (FFWI, FWI, and IFI) were selected and computed starting from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) forecast.Results showed a high inter- and intra-annual variability in fire activiy, also considering the different type of affected vegetation. As for other Mediterranean areas, a smaller number of large fires caused a high proportion of burned area. Furthermore, fire activity showed significant correlations with the outputs obtained by the applied models. High relationships were found between

  9. Managing Multiple Tasks in Complex, Dynamic Environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freed, Michael; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Sketchy planners are designed to achieve goals in realistically complex, time-pressured, and uncertain task environments. However, the ability to manage multiple, potentially interacting tasks in such environments requires extensions to the functionality these systems typically provide. This paper identifies a number of factors affecting how interacting tasks should be prioritized, interrupted, and resumed, and then describes a sketchy planner called APEX that takes account of these factors when managing multiple tasks.

  10. Gender Differences in Implicit and Explicit Memory for Affective Passages

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burton, Leslie A.; Rabin, Laura; Vardy, Susan Bernstein.; Frohlich, Jonathan; Wyatt, Gwinne; Dimitri, Diana; Constante, Shimon; Guterman, Elan

    2004-01-01

    Thirty-two participants were administered 4 verbal tasks, an Implicit Affective Task, an Implicit Neutral Task, an Explicit Affective Task, and an Explicit Neutral Task. For the Implicit Tasks, participants were timed while reading passages aloud as quickly as possible, but not so quickly that they did not understand. A target verbal passage was…

  11. Attention in a multi-task environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andre, Anthony D.; Heers, Susan T.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments used a low fidelity multi-task simulation to investigate the effects of cue specificity on task preparation and performance. Subjects performed a continuous compensatory tracking task and were periodically prompted to perform one of several concurrent secondary tasks. The results provide strong evidence that subjects enacted a strategy to actively divert resources towards secondary task preparation only when they had specific information about an upcoming task to be performed. However, this strategy was not as much affected by the type of task cued (Experiment 1) or its difficulty level (Experiment 2). Overall, subjects seemed aware of both the costs (degraded primary task tracking) and benefits (improved secondary task performance) of cue information. Implications of the present results for computational human performance/workload models are discussed.

  12. Reliable probabilistic forecasts from an ensemble reservoir inflow forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bourdin, Dominique R.; Nipen, Thomas N.; Stull, Roland B.

    2014-04-01

    This paper describes a probabilistic reservoir inflow forecasting system that explicitly attempts to sample from major sources of uncertainty in the modeling chain. Uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts arises due to errors in the hydrologic models themselves, their parameterizations, and in the initial and boundary conditions (e.g., meteorological observations or forecasts) used to drive the forecasts. The Member-to-Member (M2M) ensemble presented herein uses individual members of a numerical weather model ensemble to drive two different distributed hydrologic models, each of which is calibrated using three different objective functions. An ensemble of deterministic hydrologic states is generated by spinning up the daily simulated state using each model and parameterization. To produce probabilistic forecasts, uncertainty models are used to fit probability distribution functions (PDF) to the bias-corrected ensemble. The parameters of the distribution are estimated based on statistical properties of the ensemble and past verifying observations. The uncertainty model is able to produce reliable probability forecasts by matching the shape of the PDF to the shape of the empirical distribution of forecast errors. This shape is found to vary seasonally in the case-study watershed. We present an "intelligent" adaptation to a Probability Integral Transform (PIT)-based probability calibration scheme that relabels raw cumulative probabilities into calibrated cumulative probabilities based on recent past forecast performance. As expected, the intelligent scheme, which applies calibration corrections only when probability forecasts are deemed sufficiently unreliable, improves reliability without the inflation of ignorance exhibited in certain cases by the original PIT-based scheme.

  13. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning: Summary report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This summary report discusses the results of each of the four major tasks of the study. Task 1 compared airline flight plans based on operational forecasts to plans based on the verifying analyses and found that average fuel savings of 1.2 to 2.5 percent are possible with improved forecasts. Task 2 consisted of similar comparisons but used a model developed for the FAA by SRI International that simulated the impact of ATc diversions on the flight plans. While parts of Task 2 confirm the Task I findings, inconsistency with other data and the known impact of ATC suggests that other Task 2 findings are the result of errors in the model. Task 3 compares segment weather data from operational flight plans with the weather actually observed by the aircraft and finds the average error could result in fuel burn penalties (or savings) of up to 3.6 percent for the average 8747 flight. In Task 4 an in-depth analysis of the weather forecast for the 33 days included in the study finds that significant errors exist on 15 days. Wind speeds in the area of maximum winds are underestimated by 20 to 50 kts., a finding confirmed in the other three tasks.

  14. Decadal-Scale Forecasting of Climate Drivers for Marine Applications.

    PubMed

    Salinger, J; Hobday, A J; Matear, R J; O'Kane, T J; Risbey, J S; Dunstan, P; Eveson, J P; Fulton, E A; Feng, M; Plagányi, É E; Poloczanska, E S; Marshall, A G; Thompson, P A

    2016-01-01

    Climate influences marine ecosystems on a range of time scales, from weather-scale (days) through to climate-scale (hundreds of years). Understanding of interannual to decadal climate variability and impacts on marine industries has received less attention. Predictability up to 10 years ahead may come from large-scale climate modes in the ocean that can persist over these time scales. In Australia the key drivers of climate variability affecting the marine environment are the Southern Annular Mode, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, each has phases that are associated with different ocean circulation patterns and regional environmental variables. The roles of these drivers are illustrated with three case studies of extreme events-a marine heatwave in Western Australia, a coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and flooding in Queensland. Statistical and dynamical approaches are described to generate forecasts of climate drivers that can subsequently be translated to useful information for marine end users making decisions at these time scales. Considerable investment is still needed to support decadal forecasting including improvement of ocean-atmosphere models, enhancement of observing systems on all scales to support initiation of forecasting models, collection of important biological data, and integration of forecasts into decision support tools. Collaboration between forecast developers and marine resource sectors-fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, biodiversity management, infrastructure-is needed to support forecast-based tactical and strategic decisions that reduce environmental risk over annual to decadal time scales. PMID:27573049

  15. Hydrological model calibration for enhancing global flood forecast skill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirpa, Feyera A.; Beck, Hylke E.; Salamon, Peter; Thielen-del Pozo, Jutta

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems play a key role in flood risk reduction, and their effectiveness is directly linked to streamflow forecast skill. The skill of a streamflow forecast is affected by several factors; among them are (i) model errors due to incomplete representation of physical processes and inaccurate parameterization, (ii) uncertainty in the model initial conditions, and (iii) errors in the meteorological forcing. In macro scale (continental or global) modeling, it is a common practice to use a priori parameter estimates over large river basins or wider regions, resulting in suboptimal streamflow estimations. The aim of this work is to improve flood forecast skill of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS; www.globalfloods.eu), a grid-based forecasting system that produces flood forecast unto 30 days lead, through calibration of the distributed hydrological model parameters. We use a combination of in-situ and satellite-based streamflow data for automatic calibration using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. We will present the calibrated global parameter maps and report the forecast skill improvements achieved. Furthermore, we discuss current challenges and future opportunities with regard to global-scale early flood warning systems.

  16. Decadal-Scale Forecasting of Climate Drivers for Marine Applications.

    PubMed

    Salinger, J; Hobday, A J; Matear, R J; O'Kane, T J; Risbey, J S; Dunstan, P; Eveson, J P; Fulton, E A; Feng, M; Plagányi, É E; Poloczanska, E S; Marshall, A G; Thompson, P A

    2016-01-01

    Climate influences marine ecosystems on a range of time scales, from weather-scale (days) through to climate-scale (hundreds of years). Understanding of interannual to decadal climate variability and impacts on marine industries has received less attention. Predictability up to 10 years ahead may come from large-scale climate modes in the ocean that can persist over these time scales. In Australia the key drivers of climate variability affecting the marine environment are the Southern Annular Mode, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, each has phases that are associated with different ocean circulation patterns and regional environmental variables. The roles of these drivers are illustrated with three case studies of extreme events-a marine heatwave in Western Australia, a coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and flooding in Queensland. Statistical and dynamical approaches are described to generate forecasts of climate drivers that can subsequently be translated to useful information for marine end users making decisions at these time scales. Considerable investment is still needed to support decadal forecasting including improvement of ocean-atmosphere models, enhancement of observing systems on all scales to support initiation of forecasting models, collection of important biological data, and integration of forecasts into decision support tools. Collaboration between forecast developers and marine resource sectors-fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, biodiversity management, infrastructure-is needed to support forecast-based tactical and strategic decisions that reduce environmental risk over annual to decadal time scales.

  17. Extended time weather forecasts contributes to agricultural productivity estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Oliveira Cardoso, Andrea; Pinto, Hilton Silveira; de Ávila, Ana Maria Heuminski; da Silva Dias, Pedro Leite; Marin, Fabio Ricardo; Pilau, Felipe

    2010-11-01

    Weather conditions in critical periods of the vegetative crop development influence crop productivity, thus being a basic parameter for crop forecast. Reliable extended period weather forecasts may contribute to improve the estimation of agricultural productivity. The production of soybean plays an important role in the Brazilian economy, because this country is ranked among the largest producers of soybeans in the world. This culture can be significantly affected by water conditions, depending on the intensity of water deficit. This work explores the role of extended period weather forecasts for estimating soybean productivity in the southern part of Brazil, Passo Fundo, and Londrina (State of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, respectively) in the 2005/2006 harvest. The goal was to investigate the possible contribution of precipitation forecasts as a substitute for the use of climatological data on crop forecasts. The results suggest that the use of meteorological forecasts generate more reliable productivity estimates during the growth period than those generated only through climatological information.

  18. Regime-based forecast performance during WFIP 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freedman, J. M.; Zack, J. W.; Manobianco, J.; Beaucage, P.; Rojowsky, K.

    2015-12-01

    The principal objectives of the first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP 1) were to improve short-term (0 - 6 hr) wind power forecasts through the assimilation of targeted remote sensing and surface observations with an enhanced model ensemble forcast system. The WFIP 1 field deployment/modeling campaign in the Southern Study Area (SSA--encompassing most of central and western Texas) ran from August 2011 through Septembe 2012. This ensured observational data and model output for all representative weather regimes affecting the SSA. Cold and warm season regimes featured synoptic-scale, convective, and low-level jet (LLJ) phenomena that are responsible for the favorable wind resource in the SSA, and also posed a challenge for assigning specific explanations for the observed forecast improvements (e.g. additional observations, model improvements, or a combination of both). LLJs produced hourly capacity factors exceeding 80% in aggregated wind farm power production, while synoptic-scale systems were responsible for the largest ramp events observed during WFIP 1. Accurately forecasting convective phenomena (such as outflow boundaries) during WFIP 1 was at times problematic. Here, we present regime-based and phenomenological-related forecast performance results for WFIP 1. These performance metrics suggest future research pathways that will facilitate improvements in operational wind power forecasts.

  19. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, Phase II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2008-01-01

    Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Light Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) created a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display Systems (MIDDS) to indicate the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input.

  20. Forecasting droughts in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, Emmah; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Dutra, Emanuel; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Pappenberger, Florian

    2014-05-01

    The humanitarian crisis caused by the recent droughts (2008-2009 and 2010-2011) in East Africa have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought predictions with sufficient lead time is essential. The use of dynamical model forecasts in combination with drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), can potentially to lead to a better description of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. This study evaluates the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF seasonal precipitation shows significant skill for both rain seasons when evaluated against measurements from the available in-situ stations from East Africa. The forecast for October-December rain season has higher skill than for the March-May season. ECMWF forecasts add value to the statistical forecasts produced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums (GHACOF), which is the present operational product. Complementing the raw precipitation forecasts with SPI provides additional information on the spatial extent and intensity of the drought event.

  1. Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menut, L.; Bessagnet, B.

    2010-01-01

    The atmospheric composition is a societal issue and, following new European directives, its forecast is now recommended to quantify the air quality. It concerns both gaseous and particles species, identified as potential problems for health. In Europe, numerical systems providing daily air quality forecasts are numerous and, mostly, operated by universities. Following recent European research projects (GEMS, PROMOTE), an organization of the air quality forecast is currently under development. But for the moment, many platforms exist, each of them with strengths and weaknesses. This overview paper presents all existing systems in Europe and try to identify the main remaining gaps in the air quality forecast knowledge. As modeling systems are now able to reasonably forecast gaseous species, and in a lesser extent aerosols, the future directions would concern the use of these systems with ensemble approaches and satellite data assimilation. If numerous improvements were recently done on emissions and chemistry knowledge, improvements are still needed especially concerning meteorology, which remains a weak point of forecast systems. Future directions will also concern the use of these forecast tools to better understand and quantify the air pollution impact on health.

  2. The Affective Regulation of Cognitive Priming

    PubMed Central

    Storbeck, Justin; Clore, Gerald L.

    2008-01-01

    Semantic and affective priming are classic effects observed in cognitive and social psychology, respectively. We discovered that affect regulates such priming effects. In Experiment 1, positive and negative moods were induced prior to one of three priming tasks; evaluation, categorization, or lexical decision. As predicted, positive affect led to both affective priming (evaluation task) and semantic priming (category and lexical decision tasks). However, negative affect inhibited such effects. In Experiment 2, participants in their natural affective state completed the same priming tasks as in Experiment 1. As expected, affective priming (evaluation task) and category priming (categorization and lexical decision tasks) were observed in such resting affective states. Hence, we conclude that negative affect inhibits semantic and affective priming. These results support recent theoretical models, which suggest that positive affect promotes associations among strong and weak concepts, and that negative affect impairs such associations (Kuhl, 2000; Clore & Storbeck, 2006). PMID:18410195

  3. Drought forecasting in Luanhe River basin involving climatic indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Weinan; Wang, Yixuan; Li, Jianzhu; Feng, Ping; Smith, Ronald J.

    2016-09-01

    Drought is regarded as one of the most severe natural disasters globally. This is especially the case in Tianjin City, Northern China, where drought can affect economic development and people's livelihoods. Drought forecasting, the basis of drought management, is an important mitigation strategy. In this paper, we evolve a probabilistic forecasting model, which forecasts transition probabilities from a current Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) value to a future SPI class, based on conditional distribution of multivariate normal distribution to involve two large-scale climatic indices at the same time, and apply the forecasting model to 26 rain gauges in the Luanhe River basin in North China. The establishment of the model and the derivation of the SPI are based on the hypothesis of aggregated monthly precipitation that is normally distributed. Pearson correlation and Shapiro-Wilk normality tests are used to select appropriate SPI time scale and large-scale climatic indices. Findings indicated that longer-term aggregated monthly precipitation, in general, was more likely to be considered normally distributed and forecasting models should be applied to each gauge, respectively, rather than to the whole basin. Taking Liying Gauge as an example, we illustrate the impact of the SPI time scale and lead time on transition probabilities. Then, the controlled climatic indices of every gauge are selected by Pearson correlation test and the multivariate normality of SPI, corresponding climatic indices for current month and SPI 1, 2, and 3 months later are demonstrated using Shapiro-Wilk normality test. Subsequently, we illustrate the impact of large-scale oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns on transition probabilities. Finally, we use a score method to evaluate and compare the performance of the three forecasting models and compare them with two traditional models which forecast transition probabilities from a current to a future SPI class. The results show that the

  4. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

    2009-01-01

    Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to create a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that indicates the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. The tool creates a graphic depicting the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on the average of the upper level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 n mi standoff circles centered at the location of interest, as well as one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 sector width based on a previous AMU study that determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 of the upper-level wind direction. The AMU was then tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). SMG later requested the tool be updated to provide more flexibility and quicker access to model data. This presentation describes the work performed by the AMU to transition the tool into AWIPS, as well as the subsequent improvements made to the tool.

  5. Pilot based frameworks for Weather Research Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganapathi, Dinesh Prasanth

    The Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) domain consists of complex workflows that demand the use of Distributed Computing Infrastructure (DCI). Weather forecasting requires that weather researchers use different set of initial conditions and one or a combination of physics models on the same set of input data. For these type of simulations an ensemble based computing approach becomes imperative. Most DCIs have local job-schedulers that have no smart way of dealing with the execution of an ensemble type of computational problem as the job-schedulers are built to cater to the bare essentials of resource allocation. This means the weather scientists have to submit multiple jobs to the job-scheduler. In this dissertation we use Pilot-Job based tools to decouple work-load submission and resource allocation therefore streamlining the complex workflows in Weather Research and Forecasting domain and reduce their overall time to completion. We also achieve location independent job execution, data movement, placement and processing. Next, we create the necessary enablers to run an ensemble of tasks bearing the capability to run on multiple heterogeneous distributed computing resources there by creating the opportunity to minimize the overall time consumed in running the models. Our experiments show that the tools developed exhibit very good, strong and weak scaling characteristics. These results bear the potential to change the way weather researchers are submitting traditional WRF jobs to the DCIs by giving them a powerful weapon in their arsenal that can exploit the combined power of various heterogeneous DCIs that could otherwise be difficult to harness owing to interoperability issues.

  6. Implicit and Explicit Memory for Affective Passages in Temporal Lobectomy Patients

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burton, Leslie A.; Rabin, Laura; Vardy, Susan Bernstein; Frohlich, Jonathan; Porter, Gwinne Wyatt; Dimitri, Diana; Cofer, Lucas; Labar, Douglas

    2008-01-01

    Eighteen temporal lobectomy patients (9 left, LTL; 9 right, RTL) were administered four verbal tasks, an Affective Implicit Task, a Neutral Implicit Task, an Affective Explicit Task, and a Neutral Explicit Task. For the Affective and Neutral Implicit Tasks, participants were timed while reading aloud passages with affective or neutral content,…

  7. The Application of the Pso Based BP Network in Short-Term Load Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhaoyu, Pian; Shengzhu, Li; Hong, Zhang; Nan, Zhang

    The load forecast level in power system is a important symbol to measure operations and management of power system. This paper summarized the research conditions of the short-term load forecasting using artificial neural network method, and analyzed the characteristics of electrical load and factors of influencing power load forecasting accuracy. The paper used the particle swarm optimization neural network method in short-term load forecasting of power grid. Based on the analysis history loads in California power system, we established the load forecasting model considering the various affecting factors, and normalized the input load, meanwhile quantified date, atmosphere and other factors. The example showed that the model of neural network based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm can improve the prediction precision and speed, it's performance prediction is superior to the model based on BP neural network load forecasting.

  8. Characterizing the uncertainty in river stage forecasts conditional on point forecast values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Jun; Liao, Gong-Yi; Gebremichael, Mekonnen; Shedd, Robert; Vallee, David R.

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainty information about river level forecast is as important as the forecast itself for forecast users. This paper presents a flexible, statistical approach that processes deterministic forecasts into probabilistic forecasts. The model is a smoothly changing conditional distribution of river stage given point forecast and other information available, such as lagged river level at the time of forecasting. The parametric distribution is a four-parameter skewt distribution, with each parameter modeled as a smooth function of the point forecast and the 1 day ago observed river level. The model was applied to 9 years of daily 6 h lead forecasts and 24 h lead forecasts in the warm season and their matching observations at the Plymouth station on the Pemigewasset River in New Hampshire. For each point forecast, the conditional distribution and resulting prediction intervals provide uncertainty information that are potentially very important to forecast users and algorithm developers in decision making and improvement of forecast quality.

  9. Forecasting annual aboveground net primary production in the intermountain west

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    For many land manager’s annual aboveground net primary production, or plant growth, is a key factor affecting business success, profitability and each land manager's ability to successfully meet land management objectives. The strategy often utilized for forecasting plant growth is to assume every y...

  10. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  11. Method Forecasts Global Energy Substitution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chemical and Engineering News, 1975

    1975-01-01

    Describes a model developed to forecast energy demands and determine trends in demand for primary fuels. The energy model essentially considers primary energy sources as competing commodities in a market. (MLH)

  12. Latin American Battery Forecast Report

    SciTech Connect

    Malacon, S.

    1995-12-31

    A forecast of battery production in Latin America is described. The economic influence and political difficulties which have influenced the market are discussed. Data is presented for original equipment shipments and replacement batteries.

  13. Practical Meteor Stream Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooke, William J.; Suggs, Robert M.

    2003-01-01

    Inspired by the recent Leonid meteor storms, researchers have made great strides in our ability to predict enhanced meteor activity. However, the necessary calibration of the meteor stream models with Earth-based ZHRs (Zenith Hourly Rates) has placed emphasis on the terran observer and meteor activity predictions are published in such a manner to reflect this emphasis. As a consequence, many predictions are often unusable by the satellite community, which has the most at stake and the greatest interest in meteor forecasting. This paper suggests that stream modelers need to pay more attention to the needs of this community and publish not just durations and times of maxima for Earth, but everything needed to characterize the meteor stream in and out of the plane of the ecliptic, which, at a minimum, consists of the location of maximum stream density (ZHR) and the functional form of the density decay with distance from this point. It is also suggested that some of the terminology associated with meteor showers may need to be more strictly defined in order to eliminate the perception of crying wolf by meteor scientists. An outburst is especially problematic, as it usually denotes an enhancement by a factor of 2 or more to researchers, but conveys the notion of a sky filled with meteors to satellite operators and the public. Experience has also taught that predicted ZHRs often lead to public disappointment, as these values vastly overestimate what is seen.

  14. Forecasting droughts in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Dutra, E.; Di Giuseppe, F.; Pappenberger, F.

    2013-08-01

    The humanitarian crisis caused by the recent droughts (2008-2009 and 2010-2011) in the East African region have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought predictions with adequate lead time is essential. The use of dynamical model forecasts and drought indices, such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), promises to lead to a better description of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. This study evaluates the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF seasonal precipitation shows significant skill for both rain seasons when evaluated against measurements from the available in-situ stations from East Africa. The October-December rain season has higher skill that the March-May season. ECMWF forecasts add value to the statistical forecasts produced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums (GHACOF) which is the present operational product. Complementing the raw precipitation forecasts with SPI provides additional information on the spatial extend and intensity of the drought event.

  15. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  16. Probability Forecasting Using Monte Carlo Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duncan, M.; Frisbee, J.; Wysack, J.

    2014-09-01

    collision probability distribution given known, predicted uncertainty. This paper presents the details of the collision probability forecasting method. We examine various conjunction event scenarios and numerically demonstrate the utility of this approach in typical event scenarios. We explore the utility of a probability-based track scenario simulation that models expected tracking data frequency as the tasking levels are increased. The resulting orbital uncertainty is subsequently used in the forecasting algorithm.

  17. Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuhlthan, A. R.; Vermuri, R. S.

    1978-01-01

    Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling.

  18. HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Alfieri, L.; Cloke, H. L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Balabanova, S.; Daňhelka, J.; Vogelbacher, A.; Salamon, P.; Carrasco, I.; Cabrera-Tordera, A. J.; Corzo-Toscano, M.; Garcia-Padilla, M.; Garcia-Sanchez, R. J.; Ardilouze, C.; Jurela, S.; Terek, B.; Csik, A.; Casey, J.; Stankūnavičius, G.; Ceres, V.; Sprokkereef, E.; Stam, J.; Anghel, E.; Vladikovic, D.; Alionte Eklund, C.; Hjerdt, N.; Djerv, H.; Holmberg, F.; Nilsson, J.; Nyström, K.; Sušnik, M.; Hazlinger, M.; Holubecka, M.

    2013-11-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  19. Fields, Flares, And Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucheron, L.; Al-Ghraibah, Amani; McAteer, J.; Cao, H.; Jackiewicz, J.; McNamara, B.; Voelz, D.; Calabro, B.; DeGrave, K.; Kirk, M.; Madadi, A.; Petsov, A.; Taylor, G.

    2011-05-01

    Solar active regions are the source of many energetic and geo-effective events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Understanding how these complex source regions evolve and produce these events is of fundamental importance, not only to solar physics, but also to the demands of space weather forecasting. We propose to investigate the physical properties of active region magnetic fields using fractal-, gradient-, neutral line-, emerging flux-, wavelet- and general image-based techniques, and to correlate them to solar activity. The combination of these projects with solarmonitor.org and the international Max Millenium Campaign presents an opportunity for accurate and timely flare predictions for the first time. Many studies have attempted to relate solar flares to their concomitant magnetic field distributions. However, a consistent, causal relationship between the magnetic field on the photosphere and the production of solar flares is unknown. Often the local properties of the active region magnetic field - critical in many theories of activity - are lost in the global definition of their diagnostics, in effect smoothing out variations that occur on small spatial scales. Mindful of this, our overall goal is to create measures that are sensitive to both the global and the small-scale nature of energy storage and release in the solar atmosphere in order to study solar flare prediction. This set of active region characteristics will be automatically explored for discriminating features through the use of feature selection methods. Such methods search a feature space while optimizing a criterion - the prediction of a flare in this case. The large size of the datasets used in this project make it well suited for an exploration of a large feature space. This work is funded through a New Mexico State University Interdisciplinary Research Grant.

  20. Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2014-04-01

    Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future shallow (depth 0-70 km) earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress, and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density as a function of location, magnitude and focal mechanism. In previous publications we reported forecasts of 0.5° spatial resolution, covering the latitude range from -75° to +75°, based on the Global Central Moment Tensor earthquake catalogue. In the new forecasts we have improved the spatial resolution to 0.1° and the latitude range from pole to pole. Our focal mechanism estimates require distance-weighted combinations of observed focal mechanisms within 1000 km of each gridpoint. Simultaneously, we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms, using the method of Kagan & Jackson proposed in 1994. This average angle reveals the level of tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The procedure becomes problematical where longitude lines are not approximately parallel, and where shallow earthquakes are so sparse that an adequate sample spans very large distances. North or south of 75°, the azimuths of points 1000 km away may vary by about 35°. We solved this problem by calculating focal mechanisms on a plane tangent to the Earth's surface at each forecast point, correcting for the rotation of the longitude lines at the locations of earthquakes included in the averaging. The corrections are negligible between -30° and +30° latitude, but outside that band uncorrected rotations can be significantly off. Improved forecasts at 0.5° and 0.1° resolution are posted at http://eq.ess.ucla.edu/kagan/glob_gcmt_index.html.

  1. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE PAGES

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  2. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  3. Forecasting the 2013-2014 influenza season using Wikipedia.

    PubMed

    Hickmann, Kyle S; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y

    2015-05-01

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  4. A stochastic HMM-based forecasting model for fuzzy time series.

    PubMed

    Li, Sheng-Tun; Cheng, Yi-Chung

    2010-10-01

    Recently, fuzzy time series have attracted more academic attention than traditional time series due to their capability of dealing with the uncertainty and vagueness inherent in the data collected. The formulation of fuzzy relations is one of the key issues affecting forecasting results. Most of the present works adopt IF-THEN rules for relationship representation, which leads to higher computational overhead and rule redundancy. Sullivan and Woodall proposed a Markov-based formulation and a forecasting model to reduce computational overhead; however, its applicability is limited to handling one-factor problems. In this paper, we propose a novel forecasting model based on the hidden Markov model by enhancing Sullivan and Woodall's work to allow handling of two-factor forecasting problems. Moreover, in order to make the nature of conjecture and randomness of forecasting more realistic, the Monte Carlo method is adopted to estimate the outcome. To test the effectiveness of the resulting stochastic model, we conduct two experiments and compare the results with those from other models. The first experiment consists of forecasting the daily average temperature and cloud density in Taipei, Taiwan, and the second experiment is based on the Taiwan Weighted Stock Index by forecasting the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar against the U.S. dollar. In addition to improving forecasting accuracy, the proposed model adheres to the central limit theorem, and thus, the result statistically approximates to the real mean of the target value being forecast.

  5. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, M. Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI . Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL . Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. )

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  6. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, M. ||; Hwang, R.

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  7. Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

    2015-12-01

    When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

  8. CME Ensemble Forecasting - A Primer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzo, V. J.; de Koning, C. A.; Cash, M. D.; Millward, G. H.; Biesecker, D. A.; Codrescu, M.; Puga, L.; Odstrcil, D.

    2014-12-01

    SWPC has been evaluating various approaches for ensemble forecasting of Earth-directed CMEs. We have developed the software infrastructure needed to support broad-ranging CME ensemble modeling, including composing, interpreting, and making intelligent use of ensemble simulations. The first step is to determine whether the physics of the interplanetary propagation of CMEs is better described as chaotic (like terrestrial weather) or deterministic (as in tsunami propagation). This is important, since different ensemble strategies are to be pursued under the two scenarios. We present the findings of a comprehensive study of CME ensembles in uniform and structured backgrounds that reveals systematic relationships between input cone parameters and ambient flow states and resulting transit times and velocity/density amplitudes at Earth. These results clearly indicate that the propagation of single CMEs to 1 AU is a deterministic process. Thus, the accuracy with which one can forecast the gross properties (such as arrival time) of CMEs at 1 AU is determined primarily by the accuracy of the inputs. This is no tautology - it means specifically that efforts to improve forecast accuracy should focus upon obtaining better inputs, as opposed to developing better propagation models. In a companion paper (deKoning et al., this conference), we compare in situ solar wind data with forecast events in the SWPC operational archive to show how the qualitative and quantitative findings presented here are entirely consistent with the observations and may lead to improved forecasts of arrival time at Earth.

  9. Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza.

    PubMed

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

    2012-12-11

    Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003-2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza.

  10. Advances in Solar Power Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haupt, S. E.; Kosovic, B.; Drobot, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a blended SunCast Solar Power Forecasting system. This system includes several short-range nowcasting models and improves upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the "Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting." The nowcasting models being built include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, multiple sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models with cloud assimilation. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol estimation methods. These new physical models are incorporated into WRF-Solar, which is then integrated with publically available NWP models via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system as well as the Nowcast Blender to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority commercial solar farms. The improvements will be described and results to date discussed.

  11. Pollen Forecast and Dispersion Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costantini, Monica; Di Giuseppe, Fabio; Medaglia, Carlo Maria; Travaglini, Alessandro; Tocci, Raffaella; Brighetti, M. Antonia; Petitta, Marcello

    2014-05-01

    The aim of this study is monitoring, mapping and forecast of pollen distribution for the city of Rome using in-situ measurements of 10 species of common allergenic pollens and measurements of PM10. The production of daily concentration maps, associated to a mobile phone app, are innovative compared to existing dedicated services to people who suffer from respiratory allergies. The dispersal pollen is one of the most well-known causes of allergic disease that is manifested by disorders of the respiratory functions. Allergies are the third leading cause of chronic disease and it is estimated that tens millions of people in Italy suffer from it. Recent works reveal that during the last few years there was a progressive increase of affected subjects, especially in urban areas. This situation may depend: on the ability to transport of pollutants, on the ability to react between pollutants and pollen and from a combination of other irritants, existing in densely populated and polluted urban areas. The methodology used to produce maps is based on in-situ measurements time series relative to 2012, obtained from networks of air quality and pollen stations in the metropolitan area of Rome. The monitoring station aerobiological of University of Rome "Tor Vergata" is located at the Department of Biology. The instrument used to pollen monitoring is a volumetric sampler type Hirst (Hirst 1952), Model 2000 VPPS Lanzoni; the data acquisition is carried out as reported in Standard UNI 11008:2004 - "Qualità dell'aria - Metodo di campionamento e conteggio dei granuli pollinici e delle spore fungine aerodisperse" - the protocol that describes the procedure for measuring of the concentration of pollen grains and fungal spores dispersed into the atmosphere, and reported in the "Manuale di gestione e qualità della R.I.M.A" (Travaglini et. al. 2009). All 10 allergenic pollen are monitored since 1996. At Tor Vergata university is also operating a meteorological station (SP2000, CAE

  12. Challenging Issues on fog forecast with a three-dimensional fog forecast model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masbou, M.

    2012-12-01

    Fog has a significant impact on economical aspect (traffic management and safety) as well as on environmental issues (fresh water source for the population and the biosphere in arid region). However, reliable fog and visibility forecasts stay challenging issue. Fog is generally a small scale phenomenon which is mostly affected by local advective transport, radiation, topography, vegetation, turbulent mixing at the surface as well as its microphysical structure. In order to consider these intertwined processes, the three-dimensional fog forecast model, COSMO-FOG, with a high vertical resolution with different microphysical complexity has been developed. This model includes a microphysical parameterisation based on the one-dimensional fog forecast model. The implementation of the cloud water droplets as a new prognostic variable allows a detailed definition of the sedimentation processes and the variations in visibility. Moreover, the turbulence scheme, based on a Mellor-Yamada 2.5 order and a closure of a 2nd order has been modified to improve the model behaviour in case of a stable atmosphere structure, occurring typically during night radiative fog episodes. The potential of COSMO-FOG will be presented in some realistic fog situations (flat, bumpy and complex terrain). The fog spatial extension will be compared with MSG satellite products for fog and low cloud. The interplays between dynamical, thermodynamical patterns and the soil-atmosphere interactions will be presented.

  13. Sub-seasonal forecasting of flash droughts in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, Xing; Wang, Linying

    2016-04-01

    Short-term droughts during the crop growing seasons sometimes occur with abnormally high temperature, the decreasing soil moisture but increasing evapotranspiration (ET) often intensify the drought conditions. These droughts are recently termed as "flash droughts" due to their rapid development, unusual intensity and devastating impacts. For example, a flash drought that lasted for less than a month during the summer of 2013 affected 13 provinces in southern China and damaged over 2 million hectares of crops in two southern provinces alone. Currently, seasonal forecasting of flash droughts remains a grand challenge because they usually happened without persistent oceanic anomalies while mainly due to the short-term anomalies in the atmospheric circulations and the land surface conditions. Moreover, forecasting of a flash drought event is not only to predict a water deficit, but also to predict a heat extreme (i.e., abnormally high temperature) and the water-energy coupling anomaly between the land and atmosphere (e.g., ET anomaly). On the other hand, sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting that intends to bridge the weather and climate predictions for a seamless climate service is an emerging area and will also be essential for advancing the extended hydrological forecasting. Recently, a number of S2S projects including the second phase of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project have been launched to understand the hydro-climate predictability from weeks to a season, and to explore its usefulness for the applications within the Global Framework for Climate Services. Therefore, the emerging S2S forecasting activities provide an unprecedent opportunity for improving the understanding of the predictability of flash drought, and sub-seasonal forecasting of flash drought will in turn be a good measure for assessing the phenomenological forecast skill of the S2S forecasting practices. In this presentation, a 29-year daily NCEP Climate Forecast System

  14. Effects of Task Index Variations On Transfer of Training Criteria. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mirabella, Angelo; Wheaton, George R.

    The concluding series of a research program designed to validate a battery of task indexes for use in forecasting the effectiveness of training devices is described. Phase I collated 17 task indexes and applied them to sonar training devices, while in Phase II the 17 index battery was validated, using skill acquisition measures as criteria.…

  15. Smooth Sailing for Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

  16. Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

  17. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 4

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 4 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 4 uses flight plan segment wind and temperature differences as indicators of dates and geographic areas for which significant forecast errors may have occurred. An in-depth analysis is then conducted for the days identified. The analysis show that significant errors occur in the operational forecast on 15 of the 33 arbitrarily selected days included in the study. Wind speeds in an area of maximum winds are underestimated by at least 20 to 25 kts. on 14 of these days. The analysis also show that there is a tendency to repeat the same forecast errors from prog to prog. Also, some perceived forecast errors from the flight plan comparisons could not be verified by visual inspection of the corresponding National Meteorological Center forecast and analyses charts, and it is likely that they are the result of weather data interpolation techniques or some other data processing procedure in the airlines' flight planning systems.

  18. Concurrent Cognitive Task Modulates Coordination Dynamics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pellecchia, Geraldine L.; Shockley, Kevin; Turvey, M. T.

    2005-01-01

    Does a concurrent cognitive task affect the dynamics of bimanual rhythmic coordination? In-phase coordination was performed under manipulations of phase detuning and movement frequency and either singly or in combination with an arithmetic task. Predicted direction-specific shifts in stable relative phase from 0 degrees due to detuning and…

  19. ALFA: Automated load forecasting assistant

    SciTech Connect

    Jabbour, K.; Riveros, J.F.V.; Landsbergen, D.; Meyer, W.

    1988-08-01

    ALFA, an expert system for forecasting short term demand for electricity is presented. ALFA is in operation at the new Energy Management System center at Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation in Upstate New York, generating the real time hourly load forecasts up to 48 hours in advance. ALFA uses an extensive 10 year historical data base of hourly observations of 12 weather variables and load, and a rule base that takes into account daily, weekly, and seasonal variations of load, as well as holidays, special events, and load growth. A satellite interface for the real-time acquisition of weather data, and the machine-operator interface are also discussed.

  20. Acquisition forecast: Fiscal year 1995

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1995-01-01

    This volume includes projections of all anticipated FY95, and beyond, NASA contract actions above $25,000 that small and small disadvantaged businesses may be able to perform under direct contract with the government or as subcontractors. The forecast consolidates anticipated procurements at each NASA center into an agencywide report, with the aim of increasing industries' advance knowledge of NASA requirements and enhancing competition in contracting. Each center forecast report is divided into three principal categories of procurement: research and development, services, and supplies and equipment.

  1. GEM: Statistical weather forecasting procedure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, R. G.

    1983-01-01

    The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

  2. Recalling academic tasks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Draper, Franklin Gno

    This study was focused on what students remembered about five middle school science tasks when they were juniors and seniors in high school. Descriptions of the five tasks were reconstructed from available artifacts and teachers' records, notes and recollections. Three of the five tasks were "authentic" in the sense that students were asked to duplicate the decisions practitioners make in the adult world. The other two tasks were more typical school tasks involving note taking and preparation for a quiz. All five tasks, however, involved use of computers. Students were interviewed to examine what and how well they recalled the tasks and what forms or patterns of recall existed. Analysis of their responses indicated that different kinds of tasks produced different levels of recall. Authentically situated tasks were remembered much better than routine school tasks. Further, authentic tasks centered on design elements were recalled better than those for which design was not as pivotal. Patterns of recall indicated that participants most often recalled the decisions they made, the scenarios of the authentically situated tasks, the consequences of their tasks and the social contexts of the classroom. Task events, in other words, appeared to form a framework upon which students constructed stories of the tasks. The more salient the events, the richer the story, the deeper and more detailed the recall of the task. Thus, authentic tasks appeared to lend themselves to creating stories better than regular school tasks and therefore such tasks were recalled better. Implications of these patterns of recall are discussed with respect to issues of school learning and assessment.

  3. An application of ensemble/multi model approach for wind power production forecast.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alessandrini, S.; Decimi, G.; Hagedorn, R.; Sperati, S.

    2010-09-01

    The wind power forecast of the 3 days ahead period are becoming always more useful and important in reducing the problem of grid integration and energy price trading due to the increasing wind power penetration. Therefore it's clear that the accuracy of this forecast is one of the most important requirements for a successful application. The wind power forecast is based on a mesoscale meteorological models that provides the 3 days ahead wind data. A Model Output Statistic correction is then performed to reduce systematic error caused, for instance, by a wrong representation of surface roughness or topography in the meteorological models. The corrected wind data are then used as input in the wind farm power curve to obtain the power forecast. These computations require historical time series of wind measured data (by an anemometer located in the wind farm or on the nacelle) and power data in order to be able to perform the statistical analysis on the past. For this purpose a Neural Network (NN) is trained on the past data and then applied in the forecast task. Considering that the anemometer measurements are not always available in a wind farm a different approach has also been adopted. A training of the NN to link directly the forecasted meteorological data and the power data has also been performed. The normalized RMSE forecast error seems to be lower in most cases by following the second approach. We have examined two wind farms, one located in Denmark on flat terrain and one located in a mountain area in the south of Italy (Sicily). In both cases we compare the performances of a prediction based on meteorological data coming from a single model with those obtained by using two or more models (RAMS, ECMWF deterministic, LAMI, HIRLAM). It is shown that the multi models approach reduces the day-ahead normalized RMSE forecast error of at least 1% compared to the singles models approach. Moreover the use of a deterministic global model, (e.g. ECMWF deterministic

  4. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  5. A Peak Wind Probability Forecast Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crawford, Winifred; Roeder, William

    2008-01-01

    This conference abstract describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violatioas.The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean end peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

  6. Human-computer dialogue: Interaction tasks and techniques. Survey and categorization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Foley, J. D.

    1983-01-01

    Interaction techniques are described. Six basic interaction tasks, requirements for each task, requirements related to interaction techniques, and a technique's hardware prerequisites affective device selection are discussed.

  7. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  8. Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Servranckx, R.; Stunder, B.

    2006-12-01

    Volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDM) have been used operationally since the mid 1990's by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) designated Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) to provide ash forecast guidance. Over the years, significant improvements in the detection and prediction of airborne volcanic ash have been realized thanks to improved models, increases in computing power, 24-hr real time monitoring by VAACs / Meteorological Watch Offices and close coordination with Volcano Observatories around the world. Yet, predicting accurately the spatial and temporal structures of airborne volcanic ash and the deposition at the earth's surface remains a difficult and challenging problem. The forecasting problem is influenced by 3 main components. The first one (ERUPTION SOURCE PARAMETERS) comprises all non-meteorological parameters that characterize a specific eruption or volcanic ash cloud. For example, the volume / mass of ash released in the atmosphere, the duration of the eruption, the altitude and distribution of the ash cloud, the particle size distribution, etc. The second component (METEOROLOGY) includes all meteorological parameters (wind, moisture, stability, etc.) that are calculated by Numerical Weather Prediction models and that serve as input to the VATDM. The third component (TRANSPORT AND DISPERSION) combines input from the other 2 components through the use of VATDM to transport and disperse airborne volcanic ash in the atmosphere as well as depositing it at the surface though various removal mechanisms. Any weakness in one of the components may adversely affect the accuracy of the forecast. In a real-time, operational response context such as exists at the VAACs, the rapid delivery of the modeling results puts some constraints on model resolution and computing time. Efforts are ongoing to evaluate the reliability of VATDM forecasts though the use of various methods, including ensemble techniques. Remote sensing data

  9. Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence

    PubMed Central

    Mandel, David R.; Barnes, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4–0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement. PMID:25024176

  10. Error growth in operational ECMWF forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, E.; Dalcher, A.

    1985-01-01

    A parameterization scheme used at the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting to model the average growth of the difference between forecasts on consecutive days was extended by including the effect of error growth on forecast model deficiencies. Error was defined as the difference between the forecast and analysis fields during the verification time. Systematic and random errors were considered separately in calculating the error variance for a 10 day operational forecast. A good fit was obtained with measured forecast errors and a satisfactory trend was achieved in the difference between forecasts. Fitting six parameters to forecast errors and differences that were performed separately for each wavenumber revealed that the error growth rate grew with wavenumber. The saturation error decreased with the total wavenumber and the limit of predictability, i.e., when error variance reaches 95 percent of saturation, decreased monotonically with the total wavenumber.

  11. Development of Parallel Code for the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bahng, B.; Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.

    2014-12-01

    The Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is a numerical model used to forecast propagation and inundation of tsunamis generated by earthquakes and other means in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. At the U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC), the model is mainly used in a pre-computed fashion. That is, results for hundreds of hypothetical events are computed before alerts, and are accessed and calibrated with observations during tsunamis to immediately produce forecasts. ATFM uses the non-linear, depth-averaged, shallow-water equations of motion with multiply nested grids in two-way communications between domains of each parent-child pair as waves get closer to coastal waters. Even with the pre-computation the task becomes non-trivial as sub-grid resolution gets finer. Currently, the finest resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) used by ATFM are 1/3 arc-seconds. With a serial code, large or multiple areas of very high resolution can produce run-times that are unrealistic even in a pre-computed approach. One way to increase the model performance is code parallelization used in conjunction with a multi-processor computing environment. NTWC developers have undertaken an ATFM code-parallelization effort to streamline the creation of the pre-computed database of results with the long term aim of tsunami forecasts from source to high resolution shoreline grids in real time. Parallelization will also permit timely regeneration of the forecast model database with new DEMs; and, will make possible future inclusion of new physics such as the non-hydrostatic treatment of tsunami propagation. The purpose of our presentation is to elaborate on the parallelization approach and to show the compute speed increase on various multi-processor systems.

  12. WOVOdat, A Worldwide Volcano Unrest Database, to Improve Eruption Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widiwijayanti, C.; Costa, F.; Win, N. T. Z.; Tan, K.; Newhall, C. G.; Ratdomopurbo, A.

    2015-12-01

    WOVOdat is the World Organization of Volcano Observatories' Database of Volcanic Unrest. An international effort to develop common standards for compiling and storing data on volcanic unrests in a centralized database and freely web-accessible for reference during volcanic crises, comparative studies, and basic research on pre-eruption processes. WOVOdat will be to volcanology as an epidemiological database is to medicine. Despite the large spectrum of monitoring techniques, the interpretation of monitoring data throughout the evolution of the unrest and making timely forecasts remain the most challenging tasks for volcanologists. The field of eruption forecasting is becoming more quantitative, based on the understanding of the pre-eruptive magmatic processes and dynamic interaction between variables that are at play in a volcanic system. Such forecasts must also acknowledge and express the uncertainties, therefore most of current research in this field focused on the application of event tree analysis to reflect multiple possible scenarios and the probability of each scenario. Such forecasts are critically dependent on comprehensive and authoritative global volcano unrest data sets - the very information currently collected in WOVOdat. As the database becomes more complete, Boolean searches, side-by-side digital and thus scalable comparisons of unrest, pattern recognition, will generate reliable results. Statistical distribution obtained from WOVOdat can be then used to estimate the probabilities of each scenario after specific patterns of unrest. We established main web interface for data submission and visualizations, and have now incorporated ~20% of worldwide unrest data into the database, covering more than 100 eruptive episodes. In the upcoming years we will concentrate in acquiring data from volcano observatories develop a robust data query interface, optimizing data mining, and creating tools by which WOVOdat can be used for probabilistic eruption

  13. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  14. Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cazalet, E.G.

    1984-08-01

    This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.

  15. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  16. Novel Modeling Tools for Propagating Climate Change Variability and Uncertainty into Hydrodynamic Forecasts

    EPA Science Inventory

    Understanding impacts of climate change on hydrodynamic processes and ecosystem response within the Great Lakes is an important and challenging task. Variability in future climate conditions, uncertainty in rainfall-runoff model forecasts, the potential for land use change, and t...

  17. An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Thomas A.

    Students were asked to make forecasts of fourteen quantities where true values would not become known for five or six months. The quantities were selected to be typical of the subjects which would be of interest to a decisionmaker in business or government, and included GNP, consumer prices, draft calls, deaths in South Vietnam, and election…

  18. Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

    1981-01-01

    The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

  19. Forecasting phenology under global warming.

    PubMed

    Ibáñez, Inés; Primack, Richard B; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J; Ellwood, Elizabeth; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Lee, Sang Don; Kobori, Hiromi; Silander, John A

    2010-10-12

    As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953-2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology. PMID:20819816

  20. Understanding and Forecasting Ethnolinguistic Vitality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karan, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting of ethnolinguistic vitality can only be done within a well-functioning descriptive and explanatory model of the dynamics of language stability and shift. It is proposed that the Perceived Benefit Model of Language Shift, used with a taxonomy of language shift motivations, provides that model. The model, based on individual language…

  1. Premier Forecasting Center Avoids Ax

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simpson, Sarah

    2004-03-01

    Last fall, the U.S. Senate proposed eliminating all 2004 funding for NOAA's Space Environment Center (SEC), but fortunately for the world's premier space weather forecasting center and its myriad customers, the Senate did not get its way. When the full Congress passed the final budget on 22 January, the center's budget for the year was at least restored-at least partially.

  2. Wavelet-based Evapotranspiration Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachour, R.; Maslova, I.; Ticlavilca, A. M.; McKee, M.; Walker, W.

    2012-12-01

    Providing a reliable short-term forecast of evapotranspiration (ET) could be a valuable element for improving the efficiency of irrigation water delivery systems. In the last decade, wavelet transform has become a useful technique for analyzing the frequency domain of hydrological time series. This study shows how wavelet transform can be used to access statistical properties of evapotranspiration. The objective of the research reported here is to use wavelet-based techniques to forecast ET up to 16 days ahead, which corresponds to the LANDSAT 7 overpass cycle. The properties of the ET time series, both physical and statistical, are examined in the time and frequency domains. We use the information about the energy decomposition in the wavelet domain to extract meaningful components that are used as inputs for ET forecasting models. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and multivariate relevance vector machine (MVRVM) models are coupled with the wavelet-based multiresolution analysis (MRA) results and used to generate short-term ET forecasts. Accuracy of the models is estimated and model robustness is evaluated using the bootstrap approach.

  3. Military needs and forecast, 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldstayn, Alan B.

    1986-01-01

    FORECAST 2 has accomplished its objectives of identifying high leverage technologies for corporate Air Force review. Implementation is underway with emphasis on restructuring existing programs and programming resources in the FY88 BES/FY89 POM. Many joint service/agency opportunities exist.

  4. Volcanic forcing in decadal forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ménégoz, Martin; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Guemas, Virginie; Asif, Muhammad; Prodhomme, chloe

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic eruptions can significantly impact the climate system, by injecting large amounts of particles into the stratosphere. By reflecting backward the solar radiation, these particles cool the troposphere, and by absorbing the longwave radiation, they warm the stratosphere. As a consequence of this radiative forcing, the global mean surface temperature can decrease by several tenths of degrees. However, large eruptions are also associated to a complex dynamical response of the climate system that is particularly tricky do understand regarding the low number of available observations. Observations seem to show an increase of the positive phases of the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) the two winters following large eruptions, associated to positive temperature anomalies over the Eurasian continent. The summers following large eruptions are generally particularly cold, especially over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. Overall, it is really challenging to forecast the climate response to large eruptions, as it is both modulated by, and superimposed to the climate background conditions, largely driven themselves by internal variability at seasonal to decadal scales. This work describes the additional skill of a forecast system used for seasonal and decadal predictions when it includes observed volcanic forcing over the last decades. An idealized volcanic forcing that could be used for real-time forecasts is also evaluated. This work consists in a base for forecasts that will be performed in the context of the next large volcanic eruption.

  5. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  6. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark

    2005-01-01

    The Applied Meteorology Unit developed a forecast tool that provides an assessment of the likelihood of local convective severe weather for the day in order to enhance protection of personnel and material assets of the 45th Space Wing Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

  7. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  8. Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts for African Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Valdes, J. B.; Wi, S.; Roy, T.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Demaria, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    Using high resolution downscaled seasonal meteorological forecasts we present the development and evaluation of seasonal hydrologic forecasts with Stakeholder Agencies for selected African basins. The meteorological forecasts are produced using the Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) methodology applied to NMME hindcasts (North American Multi-Model Ensemble prediction system) to generate a bootstrap resampling of plausible weather forecasts from historical observational data. This set of downscaled forecasts is then used to drive hydrologic models to produce a range of forecasts with uncertainty estimates suitable for water resources planning in African pilot basins (i.e. Upper Zambezi, Mara Basin). In an effort to characterize the utility of these forecasts, we will present an evaluation of these forecast ensembles over the pilot basins, and discuss insights as to their operational applicability by regional actors. Further, these forecasts will be contrasted with those from a standard Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach to seasonal forecasting. The case studies presented here have been developed in the setting of the NASA SERVIR Applied Sciences Team and within the broader context of operational seasonal forecasting in Africa. These efforts are part of a dialogue with relevant planning and management agencies and institutions in Africa, which are in turn exploring how to best use uncertain forecasts for decision making.

  9. Student Enrollment Forecasting in Georgia: Lessons Learned.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Tak Cheung; Pool, Harbison; Davidson, Ronald

    2002-01-01

    Study of school district enrollment forecasting in Georgia finds, for example, differences in forecasting accuracy between large and small school districts, the widespread use of the Cohort Survival Technique, a lag in small school districts' use of sophisticated, computer-based enrollment forecasting models. (Contains 34 references.) (PKP)

  10. Can Business Students Forecast Their Own Grade?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hossain, Belayet; Tsigaris, Panagiotis

    2013-01-01

    This study examines grade expectations of two groups of business students for their final course mark. We separate students that are on average "better" forecasters on the basis of them not making significant forecast errors during the semester from those students that are poor forecasters of their final grade. We find that the better…

  11. Beat the Instructor: An Introductory Forecasting Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snider, Brent R.; Eliasson, Janice B.

    2013-01-01

    This teaching brief describes a 30-minute game where student groups compete in-class in an introductory time-series forecasting exercise. The students are challenged to "beat the instructor" who competes using forecasting techniques that will be subsequently taught. All forecasts are graphed prior to revealing the randomly generated…

  12. A Wind Forecasting System for Energy Application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Courtney, Jennifer; Lynch, Peter; Sweeney, Conor

    2010-05-01

    Accurate forecasting of available energy is crucial for the efficient management and use of wind power in the national power grid. With energy output critically dependent upon wind strength there is a need to reduce the errors associated wind forecasting. The objective of this research is to get the best possible wind forecasts for the wind energy industry. To achieve this goal, three methods are being applied. First, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) is being used to predict wind values over Ireland. Currently, a gird resolution of 10km is used and higher model resolutions are being evaluated to establish whether they are economically viable given the forecast skill improvement they produce. Second, the WRF model is being used in conjunction with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts to produce a probabilistic weather forecasting product. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, a single, deterministic weather forecast can only have limited skill. The ECMWF ensemble methods produce an ensemble of 51 global forecasts, twice a day, by perturbing initial conditions of a 'control' forecast which is the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere. This method provides an indication of the reliability of the forecast and a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting. The limitation of ensemble forecasting lies in the fact that the perturbed model runs behave differently under different weather patterns and each model run is equally likely to be closest to the observed weather situation. Models have biases, and involve assumptions about physical processes and forcing factors such as underlying topography. Third, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is being applied to the output from the ensemble forecasts in order to statistically post-process the results and achieve a better wind forecasting system. BMA is a promising technique that will offer calibrated

  13. The COMESEP SEP forecast tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dierckxsens, Mark; Tziotziou, Kostas; Dalla, Silvia; Patsou, Ioanna; Marsh, Mike; Crosby, Norma; Malandraki, Olga; Lygeros, Nik

    2014-05-01

    The FP7 COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: forecasting the space weather impact) project developed tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms. Here we present the SEP forecast tool which provides a prediction of the probability for an SEP event to occur near Earth following the real-time observation of an X-ray flare, and estimates the most likely impact if such an event would occur. The tool has been operational on the COMESEP alert system (http://www.comesep.eu/alert) since November 2013. Alerts are provided for proton storms with E>10 MeV and E>60 MeV in the form of a risk level, combining the probability and expected impact. The predictions are based on a statistical analysis of SEP events and their parent solar activity during Solar Cycle 23. The input parameters are the flare intensity and longitude location, as well as the CME speed and width, if an observed CME can be associated with the flare. This information is also received through the COMESEP system. Alerts are based on the available information when triggered and are subsequently updated if more information becomes available. The forecast for the probability, the impact and risk level are evaluated on events from solar cycles 22 and 24. The effect of including flare location and CME parameters is also studied. The performance of the SEP forecast tool within the COMESEP alert system will be described. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252)

  14. A Course in Economic Forecasting: Rationale and Content.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loomis, David G.; Cox, James E., Jr.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses four reasons why economic forecasting courses are important: (1) forecasting skills are in demand by businesses; (2) forecasters are in demand; (3) forecasting courses have positive externalities; (4) and forecasting provides a real-world context. Describes what should be taught in an economic forecasting course. (CMK)

  15. How good do seasonal streamflow forecasts need to be to improve reservoir operation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anghileri, D.; Voisin, N.; Pianosi, F.; Castelletti, A.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Reservoir operating rules inform release decisions based on competing demands, priorities, available storage, and reservoir characteristics. Reservoir inflow forecasts over a range of forecast lead times (from days or less to seasons or longer) can improve release decisions and lead to more efficient use of reservoir storage. However, the utility or value of inflow forecasts is directly related to forecast quality. Through a case study of the Oroville-Thermalito reservoir complex in the Feather River Basin, California, we explore the effect of forecast quality on optimal release strategies. Streamflow in the Upper Feather Basin is strongly seasonal signal, with most of the flow occurring during the winter (mostly from rainfall at lower elevations) and spring (from melt of the previous winter's snow accumulation). Accurate prediction of the volume and timing of snowmelt (which is possible via various means, including monitoring of accumulated winter precipitation, and measurements of high elevation snowpack) has the potential to improve reservoir operation. In this study, we use Deterministic Dynamic Programming to optimize medium-range and seasonal reservoir operation based on different forecasts of reservoir inflows. We determine maximum reservoir performance by forcing the optimization with observed inflows, which is equivalent to a perfect forecast. The forecast quality is then progressively degraded to allow forecast skill to be related to changes in release decisions and to determine the minimum forecast skill that is required to affect decision-making. We generate forecasted inflow sequences using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. Forecast initial conditions are created using observed meteorology, including streamflow and snow data assimilation, while inflow forecasts are based on seasonal climate forecasts. Although the specific forecast skill level is specific to the Feather River basin, the methodology should be transferable to

  16. Remote Sensing and River Discharge Forecasting for Major Rivers in South Asia (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, P. J.; Hopson, T. M.; Hirpa, F. A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; De-Groeve, T.; Shrestha, K.; Gebremichael, M.; Restrepo, P. J.

    2013-12-01

    The South Asia is a flashpoint for natural disasters particularly flooding of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra has profound societal impacts for the region and globally. The 2007 Brahmaputra floods affecting India and Bangladesh, the 2008 avulsion of the Kosi River in India, the 2010 flooding of the Indus River in Pakistan and the 2013 Uttarakhand exemplify disasters on scales almost inconceivable elsewhere. Their frequent occurrence of floods combined with large and rapidly growing populations, high levels of poverty and low resilience, exacerbate the impact of the hazards. Mitigation of these devastating hazards are compounded by limited flood forecast capability, lack of rain/gauge measuring stations and forecast use within and outside the country, and transboundary data sharing on natural hazards. Here, we demonstrate the utility of remotely-derived hydrologic and weather products in producing skillful flood forecasting information without reliance on vulnerable in situ data sources. Over the last decade a forecast system has been providing operational probabilistic forecasts of severe flooding of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers in Bangldesh was developed (Hopson and Webster 2010). The system utilizes ECMWF weather forecast uncertainty information and ensemble weather forecasts, rain gauge and satellite-derived precipitation estimates, together with the limited near-real-time river stage observations from Bangladesh. This system has been expanded to Pakistan and has successfully forecast the 2010-2012 flooding (Shrestha and Webster 2013). To overcome the in situ hydrological data problem, recent efforts in parallel with the numerical modeling have utilized microwave satellite remote sensing of river widths to generate operational discharge advective-based forecasts for the Ganges and Brahmaputra. More than twenty remotely locations upstream of Bangldesh were used to produce stand-alone river flow nowcasts and forecasts at 1-15 days lead time. showing that

  17. Predictions of zonal wind and angular momentum by the NMC medium-range forecast model during 1985-89

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosen, Richard D.; Salstein, David A.; Nehrkorn, Thomas

    1991-01-01

    This paper investigates the quality of weather predictions of the atmosphere's relative angular momentum (M) made by the most recent version of the NMC medium-range forecast model (MRF88) during December 1985-1989. It was found that, compared with older versions of MRF, bias errors in the MRF88 forecasts of M became more prominent, while random errors were not affected. Both types of errors in the M forecasts could be traced to problems with forecasts in the zonal mean zonal wind in the tropics.

  18. Functional Task Test (FTT)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bloomberg, Jacob J.; Mulavara, Ajitkumar; Peters, Brian T.; Rescheke, Millard F.; Wood, Scott; Lawrence, Emily; Koffman, Igor; Ploutz-Snyder, Lori; Spiering, Barry A.; Feeback, Daniel L.; Platts, Steven H.; Stenger, Michael B.; Lee, Stuart M.C.; Arzeno, Natalia; Feiveson, Alan H.; Ryder, Jeffrey; Garcia, Yamil; Guilliams, Mark E.

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Functional Task Test (FTT), an interdisciplinary testing regimen that has been developed to evaluate astronaut postflight functional performance and related physiological changes. The objectives of the project are: (1) to develop a set of functional tasks that represent critical mission tasks for the Constellation Program, (2) determine the ability to perform these tasks after space flight, (3) Identify the key physiological factors that contribute to functional decrements and (4) Use this information to develop targeted countermeasures.

  19. The New Era in Operational Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Carlson, H. C.; Gardner, L. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D. D.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Knipp, D. J.; Blake, J. B.; Rex, J.; Fuschino, R.; Mertens, C. J.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Atwell, W.

    2012-12-01

    Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere, thermosphere, and even troposphere are key regions that are affected. The Utah State University (USU) Space Weather Center (SWC) and Space Environment Technologies (SET) are developing and producing commercial space weather applications. Key systems for providing timely information about the effects of space weather are SWC's Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system, SET's Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS), and SET's Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety (ARMAS) system. GAIM, operated by SWC, improves real-time communication and navigation systems by continuously ingesting up to 10,000 slant TEC measurements every 15-minutes from approximately 500 stations. Ionosonde data from several dozen global stations is ingested every 15 minutes to improve the vertical profiles within GAIM. These operational runs enable the reporting of global radio high frequency (HF) signal strengths and near vertical incidence skywave (NVIS) maps used by amateur radio operators and emergency responders via the http://q-upnow.com website. MAPS provides a forecast Dst index out to 6 days through the data-driven Anemomilos algorithm. Anemomilos uses observational proxies for the magnitude, location, and velocity of solar ejecta events. This forecast index is used by satellite operations to characterize upcoming geomagnetic storms, for example. ARMAS is demonstrating a prototype flight of microdosimeters on aircraft to capture the "weather" of the radiation environment for air-crew and passenger safety. It assimilates real-time radiation dose and dose rate data into the global NAIRAS radiation system to correct the global climatology for more accurate radiation fields along flight tracks. This team

  20. The Influence of Seasonal Forecast Accuracy on Farmer Behavior: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobi, J. H.; Nay, J.; Gilligan, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Seasonal climates dictate the livelihoods of farmers in developing countries. While farmers in developed countries often have seasonal forecasts on which to base their cropping decisions, developing world farmers usually make plans for the season without such information. Climate change increases the seasonal uncertainty, making things more difficult for farmers. Providing seasonal forecasts to these farmers is seen as a way to help buffer these typically marginal groups from the effects of climate change, though how to do so and the efficacy of such an effort is still uncertain. In Sri Lanka, an effort is underway to provide such forecasts to farmers. The accuracy of these forecasts is likely to have large impacts on how farmers accept and respond to the information they receive. We present an agent-based model to explore how the accuracy of seasonal rainfall forecasts affects the growing decisions and behavior of farmers in Sri Lanka. Using a decision function based on prospect theory, this model simulates farmers' behavior in the face of a wet, dry, or normal forecast. Farmers can either choose to grow paddy rice or plant a cash crop. Prospect theory is used to evaluate outcomes of the growing season; the farmer's memory of the level of success under a certain set of conditions affects next season's decision. Results from this study have implications for policy makers and seasonal forecasters.

  1. Task Time Tracker

    2013-07-24

    This client-side web app tracks the amount of time spent on arbitrary tasks. It allosw the creation of an unlimited number of arbitrarily named tasks ans via simple interactions, tracks the amount of time spent working on the drfined tasks.

  2. Launching Complex Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Kara J.; Shahan, Emily C.; Gibbons, Lynsey K.; Cobb, Paul A.

    2012-01-01

    Mathematics lessons can take a variety of formats. In this article, the authors discuss lessons organized around complex mathematical tasks. These lessons usually unfold in three phases. First, the task is introduced to students. Second, students work on solving the task. Third, the teacher "orchestrates" a concluding whole-class discussion in…

  3. Potential application of wavelet neural network ensemble to forecast streamflow for flood management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; He, Jianxun; Sudheer, K. P.; Tay, Joo-Hwa

    2016-05-01

    Streamflow forecasting, especially the long lead-time forecasting, is still a very challenging task in hydrologic modeling. This could be due to the fact that the forecast accuracy measured in terms of both the amplitude and phase or temporal errors and the forecast precision/reliability quantified in terms of the uncertainty significantly deteriorate with the increase of the lead-time. In the model performance evaluation, the conventional error metrics, which primarily quantify the amplitude error and do not explicitly account for the phase error, have been commonly adopted. For the long lead-time forecasting, the wavelet based neural network (WNN) among a variety of advanced soft computing methods has been shown to be promising in the literature. This paper presented and compared WNN and artificial neural network (ANN), both of which were combined with the ensemble method using block bootstrap sampling (BB), in terms of the forecast accuracy and precision at various lead-times on the Bow River, Alberta, Canada. Apart from conventional model performance metrics, a new index, called percent volumetric error, was proposed, especially for quantifying the phase error. The uncertainty metrics including percentage of coverage and average width were used to evaluate the precision of the modeling approaches. The results obtained demonstrate that the WNN-BB consistently outperforms the ANN-BB in both the categories of the forecast accuracy and precision, especially in the long lead-time forecasting. The findings strongly suggest that the WNN-BB is a robust modeling approach for streamflow forecasting and thus would aid in flood management.

  4. Theoretical basis for operational ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzo, V. J.; Koning, C.; Cash, M.; Millward, G.; Biesecker, D. A.; Puga, L.; Codrescu, M.; Odstrcil, D.

    2015-10-01

    We lay out the theoretical underpinnings for the application of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil modeling system to ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in an operational environment. In such models, there is no magnetic cloud component, so our results pertain only to CME front properties, such as transit time to Earth. Within this framework, we find no evidence that the propagation is chaotic, and therefore, CME forecasting calls for different tactics than employed for terrestrial weather or hurricane forecasting. We explore a broad range of CME cone inputs and ambient states to flesh out differing CME evolutionary behavior in the various dynamical domains (e.g., large, fast CMEs launched into a slow ambient, and the converse; plus numerous permutations in between). CME propagation in both uniform and highly structured ambient flows is considered to assess how much the solar wind background affects the CME front properties at 1 AU. Graphical and analytic tools pertinent to an ensemble approach are developed to enable uncertainties in forecasting CME impact at Earth to be realistically estimated. We discuss how uncertainties in CME pointing relative to the Sun-Earth line affects the reliability of a forecast and how glancing blows become an issue for CME off-points greater than about the half width of the estimated input CME. While the basic results appear consistent with established impressions of CME behavior, the next step is to use existing records of well-observed CMEs at both Sun and Earth to verify that real events appear to follow the systematic tendencies presented in this study.

  5. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts.

    PubMed

    Weisheimer, A; Palmer, T N

    2014-07-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that 'goodness' should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a '5' should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of 'goodness' rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching '5' across all regions and variables in 30 years time.

  6. Improving GEFS Weather Forecasts for Indian Monsoon with Statistical Downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agrawal, Ankita; Salvi, Kaustubh; Ghosh, Subimal

    2014-05-01

    Weather forecast has always been a challenging research problem, yet of a paramount importance as it serves the role of 'key input' in formulating modus operandi for immediate future. Short range rainfall forecasts influence a wide range of entities, right from agricultural industry to a common man. Accurate forecasts actually help in minimizing the possible damage by implementing pre-decided plan of action and hence it is necessary to gauge the quality of forecasts which might vary with the complexity of weather state and regional parameters. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is one such perfect arena to check the quality of weather forecast not only because of the level of intricacy in spatial and temporal patterns associated with it, but also the amount of damage it can cause (because of poor forecasts) to the Indian economy by affecting agriculture Industry. The present study is undertaken with the rationales of assessing, the ability of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) in predicting ISMR over central India and the skill of statistical downscaling technique in adding value to the predictions by taking them closer to evidentiary target dataset. GEFS is a global numerical weather prediction system providing the forecast results of different climate variables at a fine resolution (0.5 degree and 1 degree). GEFS shows good skills in predicting different climatic variables but fails miserably over rainfall predictions for Indian summer monsoon rainfall, which is evident from a very low to negative correlation values between predicted and observed rainfall. Towards the fulfilment of second rationale, the statistical relationship is established between the reasonably well predicted climate variables (GEFS) and observed rainfall. The GEFS predictors are treated with multicollinearity and dimensionality reduction techniques, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Statistical relationship is

  7. Statistical calibration of seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, A. W.; Wiley, M.; Nijssen, B.

    2008-12-01

    Model-based streamflow forecast ensembles routinely exhibit errors due to input forecast uncertainty, initial condition uncertainty and hydrologic modeling error, and such errors can undermine the suitability of raw model forecast output for use in follow-on applications such as reservoir management. This presentation evaluates the use of quantile regression for modeling and correcting streamflow prediction errors at seasonal lead times. Quantile regression has been used rarely in the hydrologic forecasting area, yet its insensitivity to outliers and avoidance of parametric assumptions about forecast errors makes it suitable for representing quantiles of datasets (such as streamflow) that often have skewed or otherwise irregular distributions. For illustration, a local linear quantile regression framework is applied to seasonal streamflow hindcasts in the Pacific Northwest and elsewhere in the western US, and found to reduce forecast bias and improve reliability, albeit with a slight loss of forecast resolution.

  8. Univariate time series forecasting algorithm validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ismail, Suzilah; Zakaria, Rohaiza; Muda, Tuan Zalizam Tuan

    2014-12-01

    Forecasting is a complex process which requires expert tacit knowledge in producing accurate forecast values. This complexity contributes to the gaps between end users and expert. Automating this process by using algorithm can act as a bridge between them. Algorithm is a well-defined rule for solving a problem. In this study a univariate time series forecasting algorithm was developed in JAVA and validated using SPSS and Excel. Two set of simulated data (yearly and non-yearly); several univariate forecasting techniques (i.e. Moving Average, Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing, Time Series Regressions and ARIMA) and recent forecasting process (such as data partition, several error measures, recursive evaluation and etc.) were employed. Successfully, the results of the algorithm tally with the results of SPSS and Excel. This algorithm will not just benefit forecaster but also end users that lacking in depth knowledge of forecasting process.

  9. Climate Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, P. C.; Fildes, R.

    2009-04-01

    This paper will discuss various aspects of climate time series data analysis, modelling and forecasting being carried out at Lancaster. This will include state-dependent parameter, nonlinear, stochastic modelling of globally averaged atmospheric carbon dioxide; the computation of emission strategies based on modern control theory; and extrapolative time series benchmark forecasts of annual average temperature, both global and local. The key to the forecasting evaluation will be the iterative estimation of forecast error based on rolling origin comparisons, as recommended in the forecasting research literature. The presentation will conclude with with a comparison of the time series forecasts with forecasts produced from global circulation models and a discussion of the implications for climate modelling research.

  10. Grid Task Execution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hu, Chaumin

    2007-01-01

    IPG Execution Service is a framework that reliably executes complex jobs on a computational grid, and is part of the IPG service architecture designed to support location-independent computing. The new grid service enables users to describe the platform on which they need a job to run, which allows the service to locate the desired platform, configure it for the required application, and execute the job. After a job is submitted, users can monitor it through periodic notifications, or through queries. Each job consists of a set of tasks that performs actions such as executing applications and managing data. Each task is executed based on a starting condition that is an expression of the states of other tasks. This formulation allows tasks to be executed in parallel, and also allows a user to specify tasks to execute when other tasks succeed, fail, or are canceled. The two core components of the Execution Service are the Task Database, which stores tasks that have been submitted for execution, and the Task Manager, which executes tasks in the proper order, based on the user-specified starting conditions, and avoids overloading local and remote resources while executing tasks.

  11. Using Climate Forecasts for Drought Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinemann, Anne C.

    2006-10-01

    Drought hazards, and the ability to mitigate them with advance warning, offer potentially valuable applications of climate forecast products. Yet the value is often untapped, owing to the gap between climate science and societal decisions. This study bridged that gap; it determined forecast needs among water managers, translated forecasts to meet those needs, and shaped drought decision making to take advantage of forecasts. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) seasonal precipitation outlooks were converted into a forecast precipitation index (FPI) tailored for water managers in the southeastern United States. The FPI expresses forecasts as a departure from the climatological normal and is consistent with other drought indicators. Evaluations of CPC seasonal forecasts issued during 1995 2000 demonstrated positive skill for drought seasons in the Southeast. In addition, using evaluation criteria of water managers, 88% of forecasts for drought seasons would have appropriately prompted drought responses. Encouraged by these evaluations, and the understandability of the FPI, state water managers started using the forecasts in 2001 for deciding whether to pay farmers to suspend irrigation. Economic benefits of this forecast information were estimated at $100 $350 million in a state-declared drought year (2001, 2002) and $5 $30 million in the other years (2003, 2004). This study provides four main contributions: 1) an investigation of the needs and potential benefits of seasonal forecast information for water management, 2) a method for translating the CPC forecasts into a format needed by water managers, 3) the integration of forecast information into agency decision making, and 4) the economic valuation of that forecast information.

  12. Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market

    SciTech Connect

    Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

    2008-11-15

    For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

  13. Forecasting the impact of virtual environment technology on maintenance training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlager, Mark S.; Boman, Duane; Piantanida, Tom; Stephenson, Robert

    1993-01-01

    To assist NASA and the Air Force in determining how and when to invest in virtual environment (VE) technology for maintenance training, we identified possible roles for VE technology in such training, assessed its cost-effectiveness relative to existing technologies, and formulated recommendations for a research agenda that would address instructional and system development issues involved in fielding a VE training system. In the first phase of the study, we surveyed VE developers to forecast capabilities, maturity, and estimated costs for VE component technologies. We then identified maintenance tasks and their training costs through interviews with maintenance technicians, instructors, and training developers. Ten candidate tasks were selected from two classes of maintenance tasks (seven aircraft maintenance and three space maintenance) using five criteria developed to identify types of tasks most likely to benefit from VE training. Three tasks were used as specific cases for cost-benefit analysis. In formulating research recommendations, we considered three aspects of feasibility: technological considerations, cost-effectiveness, and anticipated R&D efforts. In this paper, we describe the major findings in each of these areas and suggest research efforts that we believe will help achieve the goal of a cost-effective VE maintenance training system by the next decade.

  14. Temperature sensitivity of a numerical pollen forecast model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheifinger, Helfried; Meran, Ingrid; Szabo, Barbara; Gallaun, Heinz; Natali, Stefano; Mantovani, Simone

    2016-04-01

    Allergic rhinitis has become a global health problem especially affecting children and adolescence. Timely and reliable warning before an increase of the atmospheric pollen concentration means a substantial support for physicians and allergy suffers. Recently developed numerical pollen forecast models have become means to support the pollen forecast service, which however still require refinement. One of the problem areas concerns the correct timing of the beginning and end of the flowering period of the species under consideration, which is identical with the period of possible pollen emission. Both are governed essentially by the temperature accumulated before the entry of flowering and during flowering. Phenological models are sensitive to a bias of the temperature. A mean bias of -1°C of the input temperature can shift the entry date of a phenological phase for about a week into the future. A bias of such an order of magnitude is still possible in case of numerical weather forecast models. If the assimilation of additional temperature information (e.g. ground measurements as well as satellite-retrieved air / surface temperature fields) is able to reduce such systematic temperature deviations, the precision of the timing of phenological entry dates might be enhanced. With a number of sensitivity experiments the effect of a possible temperature bias on the modelled phenology and the pollen concentration in the atmosphere is determined. The actual bias of the ECMWF IFS 2 m temperature will also be calculated and its effect on the numerical pollen forecast procedure presented.

  15. Grid-scale fluctuations and forecast error in wind power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bel, G.; Connaughton, C. P.; Toots, M.; Bandi, M. M.

    2016-02-01

    Wind power fluctuations at the turbine and farm scales are generally not expected to be correlated over large distances. When power from distributed farms feeds the electrical grid, fluctuations from various farms are expected to smooth out. Using data from the Irish grid as a representative example, we analyze wind power fluctuations entering an electrical grid. We find that not only are grid-scale fluctuations temporally correlated up to a day, but they possess a self-similar structure—a signature of long-range correlations in atmospheric turbulence affecting wind power. Using the statistical structure of temporal correlations in fluctuations for generated and forecast power time series, we quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ({e}τ ) that quantifies deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and generated time series, and a scaling error ({e}\\zeta ) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations for generated power. With no a priori knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ({e}τ ) and the scaling error ({e}\\zeta ).

  16. Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

  17. Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

  18. An artificial neutral network hourly temperature forecaster with applications in load forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Khotanzad, A.; Davis, M.H.; Abaye, A.; Maratukulam, D.J.

    1996-05-01

    Many short term load forecasting techniques use forecast hourly temperatures in generating a load forecast. Some utility companies, however, do not have access to a weather service that provides these forecasts. To fill this need, a temperature forecaster, based on artificial neural networks, has been developed that predicts hourly temperatures up to seven days in the future. The prediction is based on forecast daily high and low temperatures and other information that would be readily available to any utility. The forecaster has been evaluated using data from eight utilities in the US. The mean absolute error of one day ahead forecasts for these utilities is 1.48{degree}F. The forecaster is implemented at several electric utilities and is being used in production environments.

  19. Probabilistic Downscaling Methods for Developing Categorical Streamflow Forecasts using Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazrooei, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    Statistical information from climate forecast ensembles can be utilized in developing probabilistic streamflow forecasts for providing the uncertainty in streamflow forecast potential. This study examines the use of Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) in downscaling the probabilistic information from the large-scale climate forecast ensembles into a point-scale categorical streamflow forecasts. Performance of MLR in developing one-month lead categorical forecasts is evaluated for various river basins over the US Sunbelt. Comparison of MLR with the estimated categorical forecasts from Principle Component Regression (PCR) method under both cross-validation and split-sampling validation reveals that in general the forecasts from MLR has better performance and lower Rank Probability Score (RPS) compared to the PCR forecasts. In addition, MLR performs better than PCR method particularly in arid basins that exhibit strong skewness in seasonal flows with records of distinct dry years. A theoretical underpinning for this improved performance of MLR is also provided.

  20. Post Processing Numerical Weather Prediction Model Rainfall Forecasts for Use in Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D.; Bennett, J.; Ward, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2012-12-01

    Through the water information research and development alliance (WIRADA) project, CSIRO is conducting research to improve flood and short-term streamflow forecasting services delivered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. WIRADA aims to build and test systems to generate ensemble flood and short-term streamflow forecasts with lead times of up to 10 days by integrating rainfall forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and hydrological modelling. Here we present an overview of the latest progress towards developing this system. Rainfall during the forecast period is a major source of uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Ensemble rainfall forecasts are used in streamflow forecasting to characterise the rainfall uncertainty. In Australia, NWP models provide forecasts of rainfall and other weather conditions for lead times of up to 10 days. However, rainfall forecasts from Australian NWP models are deterministic and often contain systematic errors. We use a simplified Bayesian joint probability (BJP) method to post-process rainfall forecasts from the latest generation of Australian NWP models. The BJP method generates reliable and skilful ensemble rainfall forecasts. The post-processed rainfall ensembles are then used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall runoff model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is evaluated on a number of Australian catchments and the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecasts are demonstrated.

  1. Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regonda, Satish; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill

    2010-05-01

    We present a statistical procedure that generates short-term streamflow ensemble forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, forecasts operationally produced by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFC). The resulting ensemble forecast provides an estimate of the uncertainty in the single-valued forecast to aid risk-based decision making by the emergency managers and by the users of the forecast products and services. The single-valued forecasts are produced at a 6-hr time step for 5 days into the future, and reflect single-valued short-term quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF) and various run-time modifications (MOD), or manual data assimilation, by human forecasters to reduce various sources of error in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates 5 day-ahead ensemble traces of streamflow from a very parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecasts, QPF and recent streamflow observations. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a 10-year archive of the single-valued river stage forecasts for six forecast points in Oklahoma produced operationally by the Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC). To evaluate the procedure, we carried out dependent and leave-one-year-out cross validation. The resulting ensemble hindcasts are then verified using the Ensemble Verification System (EVS) developed at the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD).

  2. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 1 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 1 compares flight plans based on forecasts with plans based on the verifying analysis from 33 days during the summer and fall of 1979. The comparisons show that: (1) potential fuel savings conservatively estimated to be between 1.2 and 2.5 percent could result from using more timely and accurate weather data in flight planning and route selection; (2) the Suitland forecast generally underestimates wind speeds; and (3) the track selection methodology of many airlines operating on the North Atlantic may not be optimum resulting in their selecting other than the optimum North Atlantic Organized Track about 50 percent of the time.

  3. Satellite freeze forecast system: Executive summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    A satellite-based temperature monitoring and prediction system consisting of a computer controlled acquisition, processing, and display system and the ten automated weather stations called by that computer was developed and transferred to the national weather service. This satellite freeze forecasting system (SFFS) acquires satellite data from either one of two sources, surface data from 10 sites, displays the observed data in the form of color-coded thermal maps and in tables of automated weather station temperatures, computes predicted thermal maps when requested and displays such maps either automatically or manually, archives the data acquired, and makes comparisons with historical data. Except for the last function, SFFS handles these tasks in a highly automated fashion if the user so directs. The predicted thermal maps are the result of two models, one a physical energy budget of the soil and atmosphere interface and the other a statistical relationship between the sites at which the physical model predicts temperatures and each of the pixels of the satellite thermal map.

  4. On the validity of cosmological Fisher matrix forecasts

    SciTech Connect

    Wolz, Laura; Kilbinger, Martin; Weller, Jochen; Giannantonio, Tommaso E-mail: martin.kilbinger@cea.fr E-mail: tommaso@usm.lmu.de

    2012-09-01

    We present a comparison of Fisher matrix forecasts for cosmological probes with Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) posterior likelihood estimation methods. We analyse the performance of future Dark Energy Task Force (DETF) stage-III and stage-IV dark-energy surveys using supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations and weak lensing as probes. We concentrate in particular on the dark-energy equation of state parameters w{sub 0} and w{sub a}. For purely geometrical probes, and especially when marginalising over w{sub a}, we find considerable disagreement between the two methods, since in this case the Fisher matrix can not reproduce the highly non-elliptical shape of the likelihood function. More quantitatively, the Fisher method underestimates the marginalized errors for purely geometrical probes between 30%-70%. For cases including structure formation such as weak lensing, we find that the posterior probability contours from the Fisher matrix estimation are in good agreement with the MCMC contours and the forecasted errors only changing on the 5% level. We then explore non-linear transformations resulting in physically-motivated parameters and investigate whether these parameterisations exhibit a Gaussian behaviour. We conclude that for the purely geometrical probes and, more generally, in cases where it is not known whether the likelihood is close to Gaussian, the Fisher matrix is not the appropriate tool to produce reliable forecasts.

  5. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  6. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted

  7. Economic consequences of improved temperature forecasts: An experiment with the Florida citrus growers (control group results). Executive summary. [weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    A demonstration experiment is being planned to show that frost and freeze prediction improvements are possible utilizing timely Synchronous Meteorological Satellite temperature measurements and that this information can affect Florida citrus grower operations and decisions so as to significantly reduce the cost for frost and freeze protection and crop losses. The design and implementation of the first phase of an economic experiment which will monitor citrus growers decisions, actions, costs and losses, and meteorological forecasts and actual weather events was carried out. The economic experiment was designed to measure the change in annual protection costs and crop losses which are the direct result of improved temperature forecasts. To estimate the benefits that may result from improved temperature forecasting capability, control and test groups were established with effective separation being accomplished temporally. The control group, utilizing current forecasting capability, was observed during the 1976-77 frost season and the results are reported. A brief overview is given of the economic experiment, the results obtained to date, and the work which still remains to be done.

  8. Measuring the benefits of climate forecasts in predicting PV power production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Felice, Matteo; Alessandri, Andrea; Pollino, Maurizio

    2016-04-01

    Surface solar radiation is an important variable to model and predict solar power output. Having accurate forecast may be of potential use for planning and operational tasks, both at short- and long-time scales. This study examines the predictability of seasonal surface solar radiation comparing ECMWF System4 Seasonal operational forecasts the SARAH Satellite Dataset on the period 1984-2007. This work tries to answer the following question: how useful are climate forecasts in predicting seasonal PV production? The "information layer" provided by climate information is overlapped with 1) the information about the land cover (CLC2006) to consider the potential amount of land available for PV panels and 2) the information about the solar power installed capacity for European region in order to define the areas where an improved forecast could have a bigger impact. All the information layers are summarised by using a simple scalar index (Index of Opportunity) computed for all the European regions for the four seasons. The results are very interesting, in fact the potential benefits of climate forecasts are not (only) related to their statistical skills (e.g. probabilistic scores) but also to the actual and potential installed capacity of solar power. Here, we show that to assess the usefulness of climate forecasts in the energy sector we should use all the relevant information layers, combining them according to the "needs" of the potential users.

  9. A Microcomputer Implementation Of An Intelligent Data Acquisition And Load Forecasting System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, Saifur

    1987-01-01

    This paper reports on the hardware and the programming aspects of an intelligent data acquisition and load forecasting system that has been implemented on a desktop microcomputer. The objective was to develop a low cost and reliable system that would collect forecasted weather data, real-time electric utility load data, archive them, and issue an electric utility load forecast in 1-hour, 6-hour and upto 24-hour increments within a midnight-to-midnight time frame. Data are collected, over commercial telephone lines, from remote locations (often hundreds of miles apart), filtered and then processed. The archived data are used to form monthly summaries of hourly electric utility load (MW) and weather conditions in the area. A set of pre-selected rules are then applied on this database to develop the desired load forecast. All this work is done in a totally automated fashion, i.e., without any human intervention. The data acquisition and load forecasting system is based on an AT&T 3B2/300 UNIX based desktop microcomputer. The 3B2 serves as the "heart" of the system and performs the functions of data collection, processing, archiving, load forecasting and display. It is a multi-tasking, multi-user machine and at it's present configuration can support four users and a "super user", or system manager.

  10. Reducing probabilistic weather forecasts to the worst-case scenario: anchoring effects.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan; Savelli, Sonia; Nadav-Greenberg, Limor

    2011-12-01

    Many weather forecast providers believe that forecast uncertainty in the form of the worst-case scenario would be useful for general public end users. We tested this suggestion in 4 studies using realistic weather-related decision tasks involving high winds and low temperatures. College undergraduates, given the statistical equivalent of the worst-case scenario (1 boundary of the 80% predictive interval), demonstrated biased understanding of future weather conditions compared with those given both bounds or no uncertainty information. We argue that this was due to an anchoring effect on numeric estimates, which were closer to the worst-case scenario than was warranted and increased linearly as the anchor became more extreme. In many situations tested here, anchoring in numeric estimates also extended to subsequent binary decisions, leading participants with the worst-case scenario to take action more often than did other participants. These results suggest that worst-case scenario forecasts can mislead the user. They appear to convince people that wind speeds will be higher and temperatures will be lower than what are indicated by the forecast. In addition, participants systematically "corrected" the forecast they were given. This effect was most prominent in the condition in which no uncertainty was provided, suggesting that people feel compelled to take uncertainty into account, even when it is not acknowledged by the forecast. Both the anchoring and correction biases were least evident when both bounds were provided, suggesting that balanced uncertainty leads to the best understanding of future weather conditions.

  11. Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-05-01

    Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

  12. Demonstrating Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) for Northern California in an Operational Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgakakos, K. P.; Graham, N. E.; Georgakakos, A. P.; Yao, H.

    2007-05-01

    Considerable investments have been made toward improving the quality and applicability of climate, synoptic, and hydrologic forecast information. In addition, earlier retrospective studies have demonstrated that the management of water resource systems with large reservoirs can benefit from such information. However, prior to this project no focused program has aimed to quantify and demonstrate these benefits in an operational environment. As a result, few reservoir managers have been able or willing to dedicate the considerable effort required to utilize new approaches and realize the benefits of improved forecast information. The purpose of the Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) Project is to demonstrate increased water-use efficiency in Northern California water resources operations through the innovative application of meteorological/climate, hydrologic and decision science. In accordance with its purpose, the particular objectives of INFORM are to: (a) implement a prototype integrated forecast-management system for the primary Northern California reservoirs, both for individual reservoirs as well as system-wide; and (b) demonstrate the utility of meteorological/climate and hydrologic forecasts through near-real-time tests of the integrated system with actual data and management input, by comparing its economic and other benefits to those accruing from current management practices for the same hydrologic events. To achieve the general objectives of the INFORM project, the authors performed the following technical tasks: (a) Developed, implemented and performed validation of climate, weather, hydrology and decision INFORM components for Northern California with historical data and real-time data; (b) Integrated INFORM system climate, hydrology and decision components and performed initial operational tests producing real-time ensemble forecasts out to lead times of 16 days four times daily for the wet season 2005-2006, and out to 9 months with

  13. Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare

  14. The Impact of Intervening Tasks on Response Preparation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sangals, Jorg; Sommer, Werner

    2010-01-01

    Response preparation usually facilitates performance, but it may also interfere with other concurrent tasks. In this article, the authors used event-related brain potentials to study how intervening tasks affect response preparation. In 3 experiments, participants performed intervening tasks during the preparation of a precued hand choice…

  15. Transition from Research to Operations: Assessing Value of Experimental Forecast Products within the NWSFO Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lapenta, William M.; Wohlman, Richard; Bradshaw, Tom; Burks, Jason; Jedlovec, Gary; Goodman, Steve; Darden, Chris; Meyer, Paul

    2003-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. To meet long-term program expectations, it is not sufficient simply to give forecasters sophisticated workstations or new forecast products without fully assessing the ways in which they will be utilized. Close communication must be established between the research and operational communities so that developers have a complete understanding of user needs. In turn, forecasters must obtain a more comprehensive knowledge of the modeling and sensing tools available to them. A major goal of the SPoRT Program is to develop metrics and conduct assessment studies with NWS forecasters to evaluate the impacts and benefits of ESE experimental products on forecast skill. At a glance the task seems relatively straightforward. However, performing assessment of experimental products in an operational environment is demanding. Given the tremendous time constraints placed on NWS forecasters, it is imperative that forecaster input be obtained in a concise unobtrusive manor. Great care must also be taken to ensure that forecasters understand their participation will eventually benefit them and WFO operations in general. Two requirements of the assessment plan developed under the SPoRT activity are that it 1) Can be implemented within the WFO environment; and 2) Provide tangible results for BOTH the research and operational communities. Supplemental numerical quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) were chosen as the first experimental SPoRT product to be evaluated during a Pilot Assessment Program conducted 1 May 2003 within the Huntsville AL National Weather Service Forecast Office. Forecast time periods were broken up into six- hour bins ranging from zero to twenty-four hours. Data were made available for display in AWIPS on an

  16. Three dimensional fog forecasting in complex terrain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mueller, M.; Masbou, M.; Bott, A.

    2010-07-01

    Fog in complex terrain shows large temporal and spatial variations that can only be simulated with a three-dimensional model, but more modifications than increasing the resolution are needed. For a better representation of fog we present a second moment cloud water scheme with a parametrization of the Köhler theory which is combined with the mixed phase Ferrier microphysics scheme. The more detailed microphysics produce many differences to the first moment Ferrier scheme and are responsible for reproducing the typically low liquid water content of fog. With explicitly predicted droplet number concentrations, sedimentation of cloud water can be modeled without a prescribed fall speed, which mainly affects the vertical distribution of cloud water and the end of the fogs life cycle. The complex topography of the Swiss Alps and its surroundings are used for model testing. As the focus is on the models ability to forecast the spatial distribution of fog, cloud patterns derived from high resolution MSG satellite data, rather than few point observations from ground stations are used. In a continous five day period of anticyclonic conditions, the satellite observed fog patterns showed large day to day variations with almost no fog to large areas of fog. This variability was very well simulated in the three-dimensional fog forecast. The simulations also demonstrate the need for high horizontal resolutions between 1 and 3 km. For model initialization the complex topography is actually a simplifying factor, as cold air flow and pooling are dominating the more uncertain processes of evapotranspiration or errors in the soil moisture field.

  17. Testing Idiom Comprehension in Aphasic Patients: The Effects of Task and Idiom Type

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Papagno, C.; Caporali, A.

    2007-01-01

    Idiom comprehension in 15 aphasic patients was assessed with three tasks: a sentence-to-picture matching task, a sentence-to-word matching task and an oral definition task. The results of all three tasks showed that the idiom comprehension in aphasic patients was impaired compared to that of the control group, and was significantly affected by the…

  18. Support vector machine for day ahead electricity price forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razak, Intan Azmira binti Wan Abdul; Abidin, Izham bin Zainal; Siah, Yap Keem; Rahman, Titik Khawa binti Abdul; Lada, M. Y.; Ramani, Anis Niza binti; Nasir, M. N. M.; Ahmad, Arfah binti

    2015-05-01

    Electricity price forecasting has become an important part of power system operation and planning. In a pool- based electric energy market, producers submit selling bids consisting in energy blocks and their corresponding minimum selling prices to the market operator. Meanwhile, consumers submit buying bids consisting in energy blocks and their corresponding maximum buying prices to the market operator. Hence, both producers and consumers use day ahead price forecasts to derive their respective bidding strategies to the electricity market yet reduce the cost of electricity. However, forecasting electricity prices is a complex task because price series is a non-stationary and highly volatile series. Many factors cause for price spikes such as volatility in load and fuel price as well as power import to and export from outside the market through long term contract. This paper introduces an approach of machine learning algorithm for day ahead electricity price forecasting with Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM). Previous day data of Hourly Ontario Electricity Price (HOEP), generation's price and demand from Ontario power market are used as the inputs for training data. The simulation is held using LSSVMlab in Matlab with the training and testing data of 2004. SVM that widely used for classification and regression has great generalization ability with structured risk minimization principle rather than empirical risk minimization. Moreover, same parameter settings in trained SVM give same results that absolutely reduce simulation process compared to other techniques such as neural network and time series. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the proposed model shows that SVM performs well compared to neural network.

  19. Effects of Variations in Task Design on Mathematics Teachers' Learning Experiences: A Case of a Sorting Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koichu, Boris; Zaslavsky, Orit; Dolev, Lea

    2016-01-01

    The goal of the study presented in this article was to examine how variations in task design may affect mathematics teachers' learning experiences. The study focuses on sorting tasks, i.e., learning tasks that require grouping a given set of mathematical items, in as many ways as possible, according to different criteria suggested by the learners.…

  20. Multi-model calibration and combination of tropical seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodrigues, Luis Ricardo Lage; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Javier; Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos

    2014-02-01

    Different combination methods based on multiple linear regression are explored to identify the conditions that lead to an improvement of seasonal forecast quality when individual operational dynamical systems and a statistical-empirical system are combined. A calibration of the post-processed output is included. The combination methods have been used to merge the ECMWF System 4, the NCEP CFSv2, the Météo-France System 3, and a simple statistical model based on SST lagged regression. The forecast quality was assessed from a deterministic and probabilistic point of view. SSTs averaged over three different tropical regions have been considered: the Niño3.4, the Subtropical Northern Atlantic and Western Tropical Indian SST indices. The forecast quality of these combinations is compared to the forecast quality of a simple multi-model (SMM) where all single models are equally weighted. The results show a large range of behaviours depending on the start date, target month and the index considered. Outperforming the SMM predictions is a difficult task for linear combination methods with the samples currently available in an operational context. The difficulty in the robust estimation of the weights due to the small samples available is one of the reasons that limit the potential benefit of the combination methods that assign unequal weights. However, these combination methods showed the capability to improve the forecast reliability and accuracy in a large proportion of cases. For example, the Forecast Assimilation method proved to be competitive against the SMM while the other combination methods outperformed the SMM when only a small number of forecast systems have skill. Therefore, the weighting does not outperform the SMM when the SMM is very skilful, but it reduces the risk of low skill situations that are found when several single forecast systems have a low skill.

  1. Multi-model calibration and combination of tropical seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodrigues, Luis Ricardo Lage; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Javier; Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos

    2013-04-01

    Different combination methods based on multiple linear regression are explored to identify the conditions that lead to an improvement of seasonal forecast quality when individual operational dynamical systems and a statistical-empirical system are combined. A calibration of the post-processed output is included. The combination methods have been used to merge the ECMWF System 4, the NCEP CFSv2, the Météo-France System 3, and a simple statistical model based on SST lagged regression. The forecast quality was assessed from a deterministic and probabilistic point of view. SSTs averaged over three different tropical regions have been considered: the Niño3.4, the Subtropical Northern Atlantic and Western Tropical Indian SST indices. The forecast quality of these combinations is compared to the forecast quality of a simple multi-model (SMM) where all single models are equally weighted. The results show a large range of behaviours depending on the start date, target month and the index considered. Outperforming the SMM predictions is a difficult task for linear combination methods with the samples currently available in an operational context. The difficulty in the robust estimation of the weights due to the small samples available is one of the reasons that limit the potential benefit of the combination methods that assign unequal weights. However, these combination methods showed the capability to improve the forecast reliability and accuracy in a large proportion of cases. For example, the Forecast Assimilation method proved to be competitive against the SMM while the other combination methods outperformed the SMM when only a small number of forecast systems have skill. Therefore, the weighting does not outperform the SMM when the SMM is very skilful, but it reduces the risk of low skill situations that are found when several single forecast systems have a low skill.

  2. Task mapping for non-contiguous allocations.

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Vitus Joseph; Bunde, David P.; Ebbers, Johnathan; Price, Nicholas W.; Swank, Matthew.; Feer, Stefan P.; Rhodes, Zachary D.

    2013-02-01

    This paper examines task mapping algorithms for non-contiguously allocated parallel jobs. Several studies have shown that task placement affects job running time for both contiguously and non-contiguously allocated jobs. Traditionally, work on task mapping either uses a very general model where the job has an arbitrary communication pattern or assumes that jobs are allocated contiguously, making them completely isolated from each other. A middle ground between these two cases is the mapping problem for non-contiguous jobs having a specific communication pattern. We propose several task mapping algorithms for jobs with a stencil communication pattern and evaluate them using experiments and simulations. Our strategies improve the running time of a MiniApp by as much as 30% over a baseline strategy. Furthermore, this improvement increases markedly with the job size, demonstrating the importance of task mapping as systems grow toward exascale.

  3. Operational Hydrologic Forecasts in the Columbia River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, K. Y.; Curry, J. A.; Webster, P. J.; Toma, V. E.; Jelinek, M.

    2013-12-01

    average discharge for water years 1879-2012) or greater were observed at TDA during the following periods: 29 March to 12 April, 5 May to 11 May, and 19 June to 29 June. Precipitation and temperature forecasts during these periods are shown along with changes in the model simulated snowpack. We evaluate the performance of the ensemble mean 10 days in advance of each of these three events, and comment on how the distribution of ensemble members affected forecast confidence in each situation.

  4. How rolling forecasting facilitates dynamic, agile planning.

    PubMed

    Miller, Debra; Allen, Michael; Schnittger, Stephanie; Hackman, Theresa

    2013-11-01

    Rolling forecasting may be used to replace or supplement the annual budget process. The rolling forecast typically builds on the organization's strategic financial plan, focusing on the first three years of plan projections and comparing the strategic financial plan assumptions with the organization's expected trajectory. Leaders can then identify and respond to gaps between the rolling forecast and the strategic financial plan on an ongoing basis.

  5. Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian

    2015-04-01

    Seasonal forecasts have an important socio-economic value in hydro-meteorological forecasting. The applications are for example hydropower management, spring flood prediction and water resources management. The latter includes prediction of low flows, primordial for navigation, water quality assessment, droughts and agricultural water needs. Traditionally, seasonal hydrological forecasts are done using the observed discharge from previous years, so called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). With the recent increasing development of seasonal meteorological forecasts, the incentive for developing and improving seasonal hydrological forecasts is great. In this study, a seasonal hydrological forecast, driven by the ECMWF's System 4 (SEA), was compared with an ESP of modelled discharge using observations. The hydrological model used for both forecasts was the LISFLOOD model, run over a European domain with a spatial resolution of 5 km. The forecasts were produced from 1990 until the present time, with a daily time step. They were issued once a month with a lead time of seven months. The SEA forecasts are constituted of 15 ensemble members, extended to 51 members every three months. The ESP forecasts comprise 20 ensembles and served as a benchmark for this comparative study. The forecast systems were compared using a diverse set of verification metrics, such as continuous ranked probability scores, ROC curves, anomaly correlation coefficients and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients. These metrics were computed over several time-scales, ranging from a weekly to a six-months basis, for each season. The evaluation enabled the investigation of several aspects of seasonal forecasting, such as limits of predictability, timing of high and low flows, as well as exceedance of percentiles. The analysis aimed at exploring the spatial distribution and timely evolution of the limits of predictability.

  6. [Application of phenological pattern recognition in ecological dynamic forecasting].

    PubMed

    Pei, Tiefan; Jin, Changiie

    2005-09-01

    This paper described the principles, methods, and procedures of ecological dynamic forecasting by the automation techniques of pattern recognition and mathematical logic judgment on the basis of phenological data and model output maps from T42L9 numerical weather prediction model. This new forecasting method proposed on the basis of modern meteorology and automation techniques enables the classic phenology to apply to a new field ecological forecasting. It enables phenological forecasting to develop from single-station forecasting stage to regional forecasting stage, which is greatly corresponded to the development stage from single station forecasting stage to synoptic stage in weather forecasting, and enables agro-meteorological forecasting to develop from qualitative and statistical forecasting stage to ecological dynamic forecasting stage. With this new qualitative forecasting method, both the predicted objective and predictors are of considerable bio-physical interests. The ecological dynamic forecasting method could be applied to crop sowing, crop growth, irrigation and fertilization, and diseases and pests

  7. If this then that: an introduction to automated task services.

    PubMed

    Hoy, Matthew B

    2015-01-01

    This article explores automated task services, a type of website that allows users to create rules that are triggered by activity on one website and perform a task on another site. The most well-known automated task service is If This Then That (IFTTT), but recently a large number of these services have sprung up. These services can be used to connect websites, apps, business services, and even devices such as phones and home automation equipment. This allows for millions of possible combinations of rules, triggers, and actions. Librarians can put these services to use in many ways, from automating social media postings to remembering to bring their umbrella when rain is in the forecast. A list of popular automated task services is included, as well as a number of ideas for using these services in libraries.

  8. Towards Optimization of Reservoir Operations for Hydropower Production in East Africa: Application of Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Remote Sensing Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demissie, S. S.; Gebremichael, M.; Hopson, T. M.; Riddle, E. E.; Yeh, W. W. G.

    2015-12-01

    Hydroelectric generation and interconnections are the major priority areas of infrastructure development in Africa. A number of hydropower projects are currently being developed in East Africa in order to meet the energy demands of the fast growing economy in sustainable and climate-resilient manner. However, the performance efficiency of existing hydropower systems in Africa is much lower (about 30% in some cases) than their design capacity. This study proposes a decision support system (DSS) that integrates climate forecasts and remote sensing products into modeling and optimization of the hydropower systems in order to achieve reliable reservoir operations and enhance hydropower production efficiency. The DSS has three main components; climate system, hydrologic and water resources system, and optimization system. The climate system comprises of tools and interfaces for accessing, customizing and integrating climate forecasts and remote sensing data. The North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal retrospective forecasts for the East Africa Power Pool (EAPP) region are compared with the TRMM rainfall estimates and the CPC unified gauged rainfall data. The errors of the NMME seasonal forecasts have portrayed significant spatial and temporal variability in the EAPP region. The root mean square errors of the seasonal forecasts are relatively higher for wetter locations and months. However, the skills of the NMME seasonal forecasts are not significantly depreciating with lead time for the study region. The seasonal forecast errors vary from one model to another. Here, we present the skills of NMME seasonal forecasts, the physical factors and mechanisms that affect the skills. In addition, we discuss our methodology that derives the best seasonal forecasts for the study region from the NMME seasonal forecasts, and show how the climate forecast errors propagate through hydrologic models into hydrological forecasting.

  9. Empirical seasonal forecasts of the NAO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchezgomez, E.; Ortizbevia, M.

    2003-04-01

    We present here seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) issued from ocean predictors with an empirical procedure. The Singular Values Decomposition (SVD) of the cross-correlation matrix between predictor and predictand fields at the lag used for the forecast lead is at the core of the empirical model. The main predictor field are sea surface temperature anomalies, although sea ice cover anomalies are also used. Forecasts are issued in probabilistic form. The model is an improvement over a previous version (1), where Sea Level Pressure Anomalies were first forecast, and the NAO Index built from this forecast field. Both correlation skill between forecast and observed field, and number of forecasts that hit the correct NAO sign, are used to assess the forecast performance , usually above those values found in the case of forecasts issued assuming persistence. For certain seasons and/or leads, values of the skill are above the .7 usefulness treshold. References (1) SanchezGomez, E. and Ortiz Bevia M., 2002, Estimacion de la evolucion pluviometrica de la Espana Seca atendiendo a diversos pronosticos empiricos de la NAO, in 'El Agua y el Clima', Publicaciones de la AEC, Serie A, N 3, pp 63-73, Palma de Mallorca, Spain

  10. Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

  11. Visualization of ocean forecast in BYTHOS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuk, E.; Zodiatis, G.; Nikolaidis, A.; Stylianou, S.; Karaolia, A.

    2016-08-01

    The Cyprus Oceanography Center has been constantly searching for new ideas for developing and implementing innovative methods and new developments concerning the use of Information Systems in Oceanography, to suit both the Center's monitoring and forecasting products. Within the frame of this scope two major online managing and visualizing data systems have been developed and utilized, those of CYCOFOS and BYTHOS. The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System - CYCOFOS provides a variety of operational predictions such as ultra high, high and medium resolution ocean forecasts in the Levantine Basin, offshore and coastal sea state forecasts in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, tide forecasting in the Mediterranean, ocean remote sensing in the Eastern Mediterranean and coastal and offshore monitoring. As a rich internet application, BYTHOS enables scientists to search, visualize and download oceanographic data online and in real time. The recent improving of BYTHOS system is the extension with access and visualization of CYCOFOS data and overlay forecast fields and observing data. The CYCOFOS data are stored at OPENDAP Server in netCDF format. To search, process and visualize it the php and python scripts were developed. Data visualization is achieved through Mapserver. The BYTHOS forecast access interface allows to search necessary forecasting field by recognizing type, parameter, region, level and time. Also it provides opportunity to overlay different forecast and observing data that can be used for complex analyze of sea basin aspects.

  12. Assessing probabilistic forecasts of volcanic eruption onsets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bebbington, Mark S.

    2013-12-01

    A method for assessing prospectively the quality of a suite of eruption forecasts is proposed. Any forecast of the next eruption onset from a polygenetic volcano can be converted into a probability distribution for the elapsed time since the forecast is made. This probability distribution, which effectively becomes a statistical P value when the observation is "plugged in," will thus itself have a uniform distribution under the null hypothesis that the forecast correctly describes the process. Given sufficient realizations, which may be on the same or different volcanoes, we can use standard statistical tests, such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, to determine if the forecasts are consistent with the model(s). The use of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test enables currently open forecasts to be included via the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimator. While consistent underestimates (or overestimates) of the repose length will result in a median greater (or less) than , the method also assesses whether the method assigns the correct degree of aleatory variability to the forecast. Note that it is possible for the forecasts to be less precise than claimed. This would be indicated by the median of the sample being around , but the quartiles being well outside the interval, for example. The method is illustrated on the author's library of forecasts dating back to 1994, including renewal models and other point processes, on a gallery of approximately 20 volcanoes including Etna, Aso, and Ruapehu.

  13. Optimized Flood Forecasts Using a Statistical Enemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silver, Micha; Fredj, Erick

    2016-04-01

    The method presented here assembles an optimized flood forecast from a set of consecutive WRF-Hydro simulations by applying coefficients which we derive from straightforward statistical procedures. Several government and research institutions that produce climate data offer ensemble forecasts, which merge predictions from different models to gain a more accurate fit to observed data. Existing ensemble forecasts present climate and weather predictions only. In this research we propose a novel approach to constructing hydrological ensembles for flood forecasting. The ensemble flood forecast is created by combining predictions from the same model, but initiated at different times. An operative flood forecasting system, run by the Israeli Hydrological Service, produces flood forecasts twice daily with a 72 hour forecast period. By collating the output from consecutive simulation runs we have access to multiple overlapping forecasts. We then apply two statistical procedures to blend these consecutive forecasts, resulting in a very close fit to observed flood runoff. We first employ cross-correlation with a time lag to determine a time shift for each of the original, consecutive forecasts. This shift corrects for two possible sources of error: slow or fast moving weather fronts in the base climate data; and mis-calibrations of the WRF-Hydro model in determining the rate of flow of surface runoff and in channels. We apply this time shift to all consecutive forecasts, then run a linear regression with the observed runoff data as the dependent variable and all shifted forecasts as the predictor variables. The solution to the linear regression equation is a set of coefficients that corrects the amplitude errors in the forecasts. These resulting regression coefficients are then applied to the consecutive forecasts producing a statistical ensemble which, by design, closely matches the observed runoff. After performing this procedure over many storm events in the Negev region

  14. Wheat yield forecasts using LANDSAT data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colwell, J. E.; Rice, D. P.; Nalepka, R. F.

    1977-01-01

    Several considerations of winter wheat yield prediction using LANDSAT data were discussed. In addition, a simple technique which permits direct early season forecasts of wheat production was described.

  15. The Economic Value of Air Quality Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson-Sumo, Tasha

    Both long-term and daily air quality forecasts provide an essential component to human health and impact costs. According the American Lung Association, the estimated current annual cost of air pollution related illness in the United States, adjusted for inflation (3% per year), is approximately $152 billion. Many of the risks such as hospital visits and morality are associated with poor air quality days (where the Air Quality Index is greater than 100). Groups such as sensitive groups become more susceptible to the resulting conditions and more accurate forecasts would help to take more appropriate precautions. This research focuses on evaluating the utility of air quality forecasting in terms of its potential impacts by building on air quality forecasting and economical metrics. Our analysis includes data collected during the summertime ozone seasons between 2010 and 2012 from air quality models for the Washington, DC/Baltimore, MD region. The metrics that are relevant to our analysis include: (1) The number of times that a high ozone or particulate matter (PM) episode is correctly forecasted, (2) the number of times that high ozone or PM episode is forecasted when it does not occur and (3) the number of times when the air quality forecast predicts a cleaner air episode when the air was observed to have high ozone or PM. Our collection of data included available air quality model forecasts of ozone and particulate matter data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s AIRNOW as well as observational data of ozone and particulate matter from Clean Air Partners. We evaluated the performance of the air quality forecasts with that of the observational data and found that the forecast models perform well for the Baltimore/Washington region and the time interval observed. We estimate the potential amount for the Baltimore/Washington region accrues to a savings of up to 5,905 lives and 5.9 billion dollars per year. This total assumes perfect compliance with

  16. Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-04-01

    Because aftershock occurrences can cause significant seismic risks for a considerable time after the main shock, prospective forecasting of the intermediate-term aftershock activity as soon as possible is important. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model with the maximum likelihood estimate effectively reproduces general aftershock activity including secondary or higher-order aftershocks and can be employed for the forecasting. However, because we cannot always expect the accurate parameter estimation from incomplete early aftershock data where many events are missing, such forecasting using only a single estimated parameter set (plug-in forecasting) can frequently perform poorly. Therefore, we here propose Bayesian forecasting that combines the forecasts by the ETAS model with various probable parameter sets given the data. By conducting forecasting tests of 1 month period aftershocks based on the first 1 day data after the main shock as an example of the early intermediate-term forecasting, we show that the Bayesian forecasting performs better than the plug-in forecasting on average in terms of the log-likelihood score. Furthermore, to improve forecasting of large aftershocks, we apply a nonparametric (NP) model using magnitude data during the learning period and compare its forecasting performance with that of the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) formula. We show that the NP forecast performs better than the G-R formula in some cases but worse in other cases. Therefore, robust forecasting can be obtained by employing an ensemble forecast that combines the two complementary forecasts. Our proposed method is useful for a stable unbiased intermediate-term assessment of aftershock probabilities.

  17. Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crochemore, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-09-01

    Meteorological centres make sustained efforts to provide seasonal forecasts that are increasingly skilful, which has the potential to benefit streamflow forecasting. Seasonal streamflow forecasts can help to take anticipatory measures for a range of applications, such as water supply or hydropower reservoir operation and drought risk management. This study assesses the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in France to provide insights into the way bias correcting precipitation forecasts can improve the skill of streamflow forecasts at extended lead times. We apply eight variants of bias correction approaches to the precipitation forecasts prior to generating the streamflow forecasts. The approaches are based on the linear scaling and the distribution mapping methods. A daily hydrological model is applied at the catchment scale to transform precipitation into streamflow. We then evaluate the skill of raw (without bias correction) and bias-corrected precipitation and streamflow ensemble forecasts in 16 catchments in France. The skill of the ensemble forecasts is assessed in reliability, sharpness, accuracy and overall performance. A reference prediction system, based on historical observed precipitation and catchment initial conditions at the time of forecast (i.e. ESP method) is used as benchmark in the computation of the skill. The results show that, in most catchments, raw seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts are often more skilful than the conventional ESP method in terms of sharpness. However, they are not significantly better in terms of reliability. Forecast skill is generally improved when applying bias correction. Two bias correction methods show the best performance for the studied catchments, each method being more successful in improving specific attributes of the forecasts: the simple linear scaling of monthly values contributes mainly to increasing forecast sharpness and accuracy, while the empirical distribution mapping

  18. The Effect of Cognitive-Task Type and Walking Speed on Dual-Task Gait in Healthy Adults.

    PubMed

    Wrightson, James G; Ross, Emma Z; Smeeton, Nicholas J

    2016-01-01

    In a number of studies in which a dual-task gait paradigm was used, researchers reported a relationship between cognitive function and gait. However, it is not clear to what extent these effects are dependent on the type of cognitive and walking tasks used in the dual-task paradigm. This study examined whether stride-time variability (STV) and trunk range of motion (RoM) are affected by the type of cognitive task and walking speed used during dual-task gait. Participants walked at both their preferred walking speed and at 25% of their preferred walking speed and performed a serial subtraction and a working memory task at both speeds. Although both tasks significantly reduced STV at both walking speeds, there was no difference between the two tasks. Trunk RoM was affected by the walking speed and type of cognitive task used during dual-task gait: Mediolateral trunk RoM was increased at the slow walking speed, and anterior-posterior trunk RoM was higher only when performing the serial subtraction task at the slow walking speed. The reduction of STV, regardless of cognitive-task type, suggests that healthy adults may redirect cognitive processes away from gait toward cognitive-task performance during dual-task gait. PMID:25823560

  19. NSI security task: Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tencati, Ron

    1991-01-01

    An overview is presented of the NASA Science Internet (NSI) security task. The task includes the following: policies and security documentation; risk analysis and management; computer emergency response team; incident handling; toolkit development; user consulting; and working groups, conferences, and committees.

  20. National Severe Storms Forecast Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    The principal mission of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) is to maintain a continuous watch of weather developments that are capable of producing severe local storms, including tornadoes, and to prepare and issue messages designated as either Weather Outlooks or Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watches for dissemination to the public and aviation services. In addition to its assigned responsibility at the national level, the NSSFC is involved in a number of programs at the regional and local levels. Subsequent subsections and paragraphs describe the NSSFC, its users, inputs, outputs, interfaces, capabilities, workload, problem areas, and future plans in more detail.

  1. Earthquake Scaling, Simulation and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sachs, Michael Karl

    Earthquakes are among the most devastating natural events faced by society. In 2011, just two events, the magnitude 6.3 earthquake in Christcurch New Zealand on February 22, and the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake off the coast of Japan on March 11, caused a combined total of $226 billion in economic losses. Over the last decade, 791,721 deaths were caused by earthquakes. Yet, despite their impact, our ability to accurately predict when earthquakes will occur is limited. This is due, in large part, to the fact that the fault systems that produce earthquakes are non-linear. The result being that very small differences in the systems now result in very big differences in the future, making forecasting difficult. In spite of this, there are patterns that exist in earthquake data. These patterns are often in the form of frequency-magnitude scaling relations that relate the number of smaller events observed to the number of larger events observed. In many cases these scaling relations show consistent behavior over a wide range of scales. This consistency forms the basis of most forecasting techniques. However, the utility of these scaling relations is limited by the size of the earthquake catalogs which, especially in the case of large events, are fairly small and limited to a few 100 years of events. In this dissertation I discuss three areas of earthquake science. The first is an overview of scaling behavior in a variety of complex systems, both models and natural systems. The focus of this area is to understand how this scaling behavior breaks down. The second is a description of the development and testing of an earthquake simulator called Virtual California designed to extend the observed catalog of earthquakes in California. This simulator uses novel techniques borrowed from statistical physics to enable the modeling of large fault systems over long periods of time. The third is an evaluation of existing earthquake forecasts, which focuses on the Regional

  2. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  3. Forecast Mekong: navigating changing waters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, Janine

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using research and data from the Mekong River Delta in Southeast Asia to compare restoration, conservation, and management efforts there with those done in other major river deltas, such as the Mississippi River Delta in the United States. The project provides a forum to engage regional partners in the Mekong Basin countries to share data and support local research efforts. Ultimately, Forecast Mekong will lead to more informed decisions about how to make the Mekong and Mississippi Deltas resilient in the face of climate change, economic stresses, and other impacts.

  4. Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2012-03-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. In three experiments, participants assumed the role of a manager of a road maintenance company in charge of deciding whether to pay to salt the roads and avoid a potential penalty associated with icy conditions. Participants used overnight low temperature forecasts accompanied in some conditions by uncertainty estimates and in others by decision advice comparable to categorical warnings. Results suggested that uncertainty information improved decision quality overall and increased trust in the forecast. Participants with uncertainty forecasts took appropriate precautionary action and withheld unnecessary action more often than did participants using deterministic forecasts. When error in the forecast increased, participants with conventional forecasts were reluctant to act. However, this effect was attenuated by uncertainty forecasts. Providing categorical decision advice alone did not improve decisions. However, combining decision advice with uncertainty estimates resulted in the best performance overall. The results reported here have important implications for the development of forecast formats to increase compliance with severe weather warnings as well as other domains in which one must act in the face of uncertainty.

  5. Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincendon, B.; Ducrocq, V.; Nuissier, O.; Vié, B.

    2011-05-01

    Mediterranean intense weather events often lead to devastating flash-floods. Extending the forecasting lead times further than the watershed response times, implies the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to drive hydrological models. However, the nature of the precipitating events and the temporal and spatial scales of the watershed response make them difficult to forecast, even using a high-resolution convection-permitting NWP deterministic forecasting. This study proposes a new method to sample the uncertainties of high-resolution NWP precipitation forecasts in order to quantify the predictability of the streamflow forecasts. We have developed a perturbation method based on convection-permitting NWP-model error statistics. It produces short-term precipitation ensemble forecasts from single-value meteorological forecasts. These rainfall ensemble forecasts are then fed into a hydrological model dedicated to flash-flood forecasting to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The verification on two flash-flood events shows that this forecasting ensemble performs better than the deterministic forecast. The performance of the precipitation perturbation method has also been found to be broadly as good as that obtained using a state-of-the-art research convection-permitting NWP ensemble, while requiring less computing time.

  6. Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2012-03-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. In three experiments, participants assumed the role of a manager of a road maintenance company in charge of deciding whether to pay to salt the roads and avoid a potential penalty associated with icy conditions. Participants used overnight low temperature forecasts accompanied in some conditions by uncertainty estimates and in others by decision advice comparable to categorical warnings. Results suggested that uncertainty information improved decision quality overall and increased trust in the forecast. Participants with uncertainty forecasts took appropriate precautionary action and withheld unnecessary action more often than did participants using deterministic forecasts. When error in the forecast increased, participants with conventional forecasts were reluctant to act. However, this effect was attenuated by uncertainty forecasts. Providing categorical decision advice alone did not improve decisions. However, combining decision advice with uncertainty estimates resulted in the best performance overall. The results reported here have important implications for the development of forecast formats to increase compliance with severe weather warnings as well as other domains in which one must act in the face of uncertainty. PMID:21875244

  7. Task Description Language

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simmons, Reid; Apfelbaum, David

    2005-01-01

    Task Description Language (TDL) is an extension of the C++ programming language that enables programmers to quickly and easily write complex, concurrent computer programs for controlling real-time autonomous systems, including robots and spacecraft. TDL is based on earlier work (circa 1984 through 1989) on the Task Control Architecture (TCA). TDL provides syntactic support for hierarchical task-level control functions, including task decomposition, synchronization, execution monitoring, and exception handling. A Java-language-based compiler transforms TDL programs into pure C++ code that includes calls to a platform-independent task-control-management (TCM) library. TDL has been used to control and coordinate multiple heterogeneous robots in projects sponsored by NASA and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). It has also been used in Brazil to control an autonomous airship and in Canada to control a robotic manipulator.

  8. Will We Hit a Wall? Forecasting Bottlenecks to Whole Brain Emulation Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alstott, Jeff

    2013-12-01

    Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible replication of human brain dynamics that reproduces human behavior. If created, WBE would have significant impact on human society, and forecasts frequently place WBE as arriving within a century. However, WBE would be a complex technology with a complex network of prerequisite technologies. Most forecasts only consider a fraction of this technology network. The unconsidered portions of the network may contain bottlenecks, which are slowly-developing technologies that would impede the development of WBE. Here I describe how bottlenecks in the network can be non-obvious, and the merits of identifying them early. I show that bottlenecks may be predicted even with noisy forecasts. Accurate forecasts of WBE development must incorporate potential bottlenecks, which can be found using detailed descriptions of the WBE technology network. Bottlenecks identification can also increase the impact of WBE researchers by directing effort to those technologies that will immediately affect the timeline of WBE development

  9. Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station: Phase I Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This report describes the results of the ANU's (Applied Meteorology Unit) Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds. The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The Keith Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A 7 year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. In all climatologies, the average and peak wind speeds were highly variable in time. This indicated that the development of a peak wind forecasting tool would be difficult. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. The climatologies and PDFs provide tools with which to make peak wind forecasts that are critical to safe operations.

  10. Crossmodal action selection: evidence from dual-task compatibility.

    PubMed

    Huestegge, Lynn; Koch, Iring

    2010-06-01

    Response-related mechanisms of multitasking were studied by analyzing simultaneous processing of responses in different modalities (i.e., crossmodal action). Participants responded to a single auditory stimulus with a saccade, a manual response (single-task conditions), or both (dual-task condition). We used a spatially incompatible stimulus-response mapping for one task, but not for the other. Critically, inverting these mappings varied temporal task overlap in dual-task conditions while keeping spatial incompatibility across responses constant. Unlike previous paradigms, temporal task overlap was manipulated without utilizing sequential stimulus presentation, which might induce strategic serial processing. The results revealed dual-task costs, but these were not affected by an increase of temporal task overlap. This finding is evidence for parallel response selection in multitasking. We propose that crossmodal action is processed by a central mapping-selection mechanism in working memory and that the dual-task costs are mainly caused by mapping-related crosstalk.

  11. Mood states determine the degree of task shielding in dual-task performance.

    PubMed

    Zwosta, Katharina; Hommel, Bernhard; Goschke, Thomas; Fischer, Rico

    2013-01-01

    Current models of multitasking assume that dual-task performance and the degree of multitasking are affected by cognitive control strategies. In particular, cognitive control is assumed to regulate the amount of shielding of the prioritised task from crosstalk from the secondary task. We investigated whether and how task shielding is influenced by mood states. Participants were exposed to two short film clips, one inducing high and one inducing low arousal, of either negative or positive content. Negative mood led to stronger shielding of the prioritised task (i.e., less crosstalk) than positive mood, irrespective of arousal. These findings support the assumption that emotional states determine the parameters of cognitive control and play an important role in regulating dual-task performance.

  12. The relational integration task explains fluid reasoning above and beyond other working memory tasks.

    PubMed

    Chuderski, Adam

    2014-04-01

    This study aimed to evaluate how well fluid reasoning can be predicted by a task that involves the monitoring of patterns of stimuli. This task is believed to measure the effectiveness of relational integration-the process that binds mental representations into more complex relational structures. In Experiments 1 and 2, the task was indeed validated as a proper measure of relational integration, since participants' performance depended on the number of bindings that had to be constructed in the diverse conditions of the task, whereas neither the number of objects to be bound nor the amount of elicited interference could affect this performance. In Experiment 3, by means of structural equation modeling and variance partitioning, the relation integration task was found to be the strongest predictor of fluid reasoning, explaining variance above and beyond the amounts accounted for by four other kinds of well-established working memory tasks.

  13. An Analytical Framework for Flood Water Conservation Considering Forecast Uncertainty and Acceptable Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, W.; Zhang, C.

    2015-12-01

    Reservoir water levels are usually not allowed to exceed the flood limited water level (FLWL) during flood season, which neglects the meteorological and real-time forecast information and leads to the great waste of water resources. With the development of weather forecasting, hydrologic modeling, and hydro-climatic teleconnection, the streamflow forecast precision have improved a lot, which provides the technical support for the flood water utilization. This paper addresses how much flood water can be conserved for use after the flood season through the operation of reservoir based on uncertain forecast information by taking into account the residual flood control capacity (the difference between flood conveyance capacity and the expected inflow in a lead time). A two-stage model for dynamic control of the flood limited water level (the maximum allowed water level during the flood season, DC-FLWL) is established considering forecast uncertainty and acceptable flood risk. It is found that DC-FLWL is applicable when the reservoir inflow ranges from small to medium levels of the historical records, while both forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk in the downstream affect the feasible space of DC-FLWL. As forecast uncertainty increases (under a given risk level) or as acceptable risk level decreases (under a given forecast uncertainty level), the minimum required safety margin for flood control increases, and the chance for DC-FLWL decreases. The derived hedging rules from the modeling framework illustrate either the dominant role of water conservation or flood control or the tradeoff between the two objectives under different levels of forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk. These rules may provide useful guidelines for conserving water from flood, especially in the area with heavy water stress.

  14. In a dynamic lifting task, the relationship between cross-sectional abdominal muscle thickness and the corresponding muscle activity is affected by the combined use of a weightlifting belt and the Valsalva maneuver.

    PubMed

    Blanchard, Trevor W; Smith, Camille; Grenier, Sylvain G

    2016-06-01

    It has been shown that under isometric conditions, as the activity of the abdominal muscles increases, the thicknesses of the muscles also increase. The purpose of this experiment was to determine whether change in muscle thickness could be used as a measure of muscle activity during a deadlift as well as determining the effect of a weightlifting belt and/or the Valsalva maneuver on the muscle thicknesses. The Transversus Abdominis (TrA) and Internal Obliques (IO) muscles were analyzed at rest and during a deadlift. Muscle thickness was measured using ultrasound imaging and muscle activity was simultaneously recorded using electromyography. Each subject performed deadlift under normal conditions, while performing the Valsalva maneuver, while wearing a weightlifting belt and while both utilizing the belt and the Valsalva maneuver. There was no relationship between change in muscle thickness and muscle activity for both the TrA and IO (R(2)<0.13 for all conditions). However it was found that the Valsalva maneuver increased abdominal muscle thickness whereas the belt limited muscle expansion; each with an increase in activity. These results indicate that ultrasound cannot be used to measure muscle activity for a deadlift and that the belt affects how the IO and TrA function together. PMID:27093137

  15. Earthquakes - Volcanoes (Causes and Forecast)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsiapas, E.

    2009-04-01

    EARTHQUAKES - VOLCANOES (CAUSES AND FORECAST) ELIAS TSIAPAS RESEARCHER NEA STYRA, EVIA,GREECE TEL.0302224041057 tsiapas@hol.gr The earthquakes are caused by large quantities of liquids (e.g. H2O, H2S, SO2, ect.) moving through lithosphere and pyrosphere (MOHO discontinuity) till they meet projections (mountains negative projections or projections coming from sinking lithosphere). The liquids are moved from West Eastward carried away by the pyrosphere because of differential speed of rotation of the pyrosphere by the lithosphere. With starting point an earthquake which was noticed at an area and from statistical studies, we know when, where and what rate an earthquake may be, which earthquake is caused by the same quantity of liquids, at the next east region. The forecast of an earthquake ceases to be valid if these components meet a crack in the lithosphere (e.g. limits of lithosphere plates) or a volcano crater. In this case the liquids come out into the atmosphere by the form of gasses carrying small quantities of lava with them (volcano explosion).

  16. Streamflow forecasting using functional regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masselot, Pierre; Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

    2016-07-01

    Streamflow, as a natural phenomenon, is continuous in time and so are the meteorological variables which influence its variability. In practice, it can be of interest to forecast the whole flow curve instead of points (daily or hourly). To this end, this paper introduces the functional linear models and adapts it to hydrological forecasting. More precisely, functional linear models are regression models based on curves instead of single values. They allow to consider the whole process instead of a limited number of time points or features. We apply these models to analyse the flow volume and the whole streamflow curve during a given period by using precipitations curves. The functional model is shown to lead to encouraging results. The potential of functional linear models to detect special features that would have been hard to see otherwise is pointed out. The functional model is also compared to the artificial neural network approach and the advantages and disadvantages of both models are discussed. Finally, future research directions involving the functional model in hydrology are presented.

  17. Anterior Medial Prefrontal Cortex Exhibits Activation during Task Preparation but Deactivation during Task Execution

    PubMed Central

    Koshino, Hideya; Minamoto, Takehiro; Ikeda, Takashi; Osaka, Mariko; Otsuka, Yuki; Osaka, Naoyuki

    2011-01-01

    Background The anterior prefrontal cortex (PFC) exhibits activation during some cognitive tasks, including episodic memory, reasoning, attention, multitasking, task sets, decision making, mentalizing, and processing of self-referenced information. However, the medial part of anterior PFC is part of the default mode network (DMN), which shows deactivation during various goal-directed cognitive tasks compared to a resting baseline. One possible factor for this pattern is that activity in the anterior medial PFC (MPFC) is affected by dynamic allocation of attentional resources depending on task demands. We investigated this possibility using an event related fMRI with a face working memory task. Methodology/Principal Findings Sixteen students participated in a single fMRI session. They were asked to form a task set to remember the faces (Face memory condition) or to ignore them (No face memory condition), then they were given 6 seconds of preparation period before the onset of the face stimuli. During this 6-second period, four single digits were presented one at a time at the center of the display, and participants were asked to add them and to remember the final answer. When participants formed a task set to remember faces, the anterior MPFC exhibited activation during a task preparation period but deactivation during a task execution period within a single trial. Conclusions/Significance The results suggest that the anterior MPFC plays a role in task set formation but is not involved in execution of the face working memory task. Therefore, when attentional resources are allocated to other brain regions during task execution, the anterior MPFC shows deactivation. The results suggest that activation and deactivation in the anterior MPFC are affected by dynamic allocation of processing resources across different phases of processing. PMID:21829668

  18. Modeled Forecasts of Dengue Fever in San Juan, Puerto Rico Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, C.; Quattrochi, D. A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is an important mosquito transmitted disease that is strongly influenced by meteorological and environmental conditions. Recent research has focused on forecasting DF case numbers based on meteorological data. However, these forecasting tools have generally relied on empirical models that require long DF time series to train. Additionally, their accuracy has been tested retrospectively, using past meteorological data. Consequently, the operational utility of the forecasts are still in question because the error associated with weather and climate forecasts are not reflected in the results. Using up-to-date weekly dengue case numbers for model parameterization and weather forecast data as meteorological input, we produced weekly forecasts of DF cases in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Each week, the past weeks' case counts were used to re-parameterize a process-based DF model driven with updated weather forecast data to generate forecasts of DF case numbers. Real-time weather forecast data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system enhanced using additional high-resolution NASA satellite data. This methodology was conducted in a weekly iterative process with each DF forecast being evaluated using county-level DF cases reported by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. The one week DF forecasts were accurate especially considering the two sources of model error. First, weather forecasts were sometimes inaccurate and generally produced lower than observed temperatures. Second, the DF model was often overly influenced by the previous weeks DF case numbers, though this phenomenon could be lessened by increasing the number of simulations included in the forecast. Although these results are promising, we would like to develop a methodology to produce longer range forecasts so that public health workers can better prepare for dengue epidemics.

  19. Strategic Adaptation to Task Characteristics, Incentives, and Individual Differences in Dual-Tasking

    PubMed Central

    Janssen, Christian P.; Brumby, Duncan P.

    2015-01-01

    We investigate how good people are at multitasking by comparing behavior to a prediction of the optimal strategy for dividing attention between two concurrent tasks. In our experiment, 24 participants had to interleave entering digits on a keyboard with controlling a randomly moving cursor with a joystick. The difficulty of the tracking task was systematically varied as a within-subjects factor. Participants were also exposed to different explicit reward functions that varied the relative importance of the tracking task relative to the typing task (between-subjects). Results demonstrate that these changes in task characteristics and monetary incentives, together with individual differences in typing ability, influenced how participants choose to interleave tasks. This change in strategy then affected their performance on each task. A computational cognitive model was used to predict performance for a wide set of alternative strategies for how participants might have possibly interleaved tasks. This allowed for predictions of optimal performance to be derived, given the constraints placed on performance by the task and cognition. A comparison of human behavior with the predicted optimal strategy shows that participants behaved near optimally. Our findings have implications for the design and evaluation of technology for multitasking situations, as consideration should be given to the characteristics of the task, but also to how different users might use technology depending on their individual characteristics and their priorities. PMID:26161851

  20. A change of task prolongs early processes: evidence from ERPs in lexical tasks.

    PubMed

    Elchlepp, Heike; Lavric, Aureliu; Monsell, Stephen

    2015-04-01

    Switching tasks costs time. Allowing time to prepare reduces the cost, but usually leaves an irreducible "residual cost." Most accounts of this residual cost locate it within the response-selection stage of processing. To determine which processing stage is affected, we measured event-related potentials (ERPs) as participants performed a reading task or a perceptual judgment task, and examined the effect of a task switch on early markers of lexical processing. A task cue preceding a string of blue and red letters instructed the participant either to read the letter string (for a semantic classification in Experiment 1, and a lexical decision in Experiment 2) or to judge the symmetry of its color pattern. In Experiment 1, having to switch to the reading task delayed the evolution of the effect of word frequency on the reading task ERP by a substantial fraction of the effect on reaction time (RT). In Experiment 2, a task switch delayed the onset of the effect of lexical status on the ERP by about the same extent that it prolonged the RT. These effects indicate an early locus of (most of) the residual switch cost: We propose that this reflects a form of task-related attentional inertia. Other findings have implications for the automaticity of lexical access: Effects of frequency, lexicality, and orthographic familiarity on ERPs in the symmetry task indicated involuntary, but attenuated, orthographic and lexical processing even when attention was focused on a nonlexical property. PMID:25844623

  1. A change of task prolongs early processes: evidence from ERPs in lexical tasks.

    PubMed

    Elchlepp, Heike; Lavric, Aureliu; Monsell, Stephen

    2015-04-01

    Switching tasks costs time. Allowing time to prepare reduces the cost, but usually leaves an irreducible "residual cost." Most accounts of this residual cost locate it within the response-selection stage of processing. To determine which processing stage is affected, we measured event-related potentials (ERPs) as participants performed a reading task or a perceptual judgment task, and examined the effect of a task switch on early markers of lexical processing. A task cue preceding a string of blue and red letters instructed the participant either to read the letter string (for a semantic classification in Experiment 1, and a lexical decision in Experiment 2) or to judge the symmetry of its color pattern. In Experiment 1, having to switch to the reading task delayed the evolution of the effect of word frequency on the reading task ERP by a substantial fraction of the effect on reaction time (RT). In Experiment 2, a task switch delayed the onset of the effect of lexical status on the ERP by about the same extent that it prolonged the RT. These effects indicate an early locus of (most of) the residual switch cost: We propose that this reflects a form of task-related attentional inertia. Other findings have implications for the automaticity of lexical access: Effects of frequency, lexicality, and orthographic familiarity on ERPs in the symmetry task indicated involuntary, but attenuated, orthographic and lexical processing even when attention was focused on a nonlexical property.

  2. Some Initiatives in a Business Forecasting Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chu, Singfat

    2007-01-01

    The paper reports some initiatives to freshen up the typical undergraduate business forecasting course. These include (1) students doing research and presentations on contemporary tools and industry practices such as neural networks and collaborative forecasting (2) insertion of Logistic Regression in the curriculum (3) productive use of applets…

  3. Flood Forecasting in Wales: Challenges and Solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    How, Andrew; Williams, Christopher

    2015-04-01

    With steep, fast-responding river catchments, exposed coastal reaches with large tidal ranges and large population densities in some of the most at-risk areas; flood forecasting in Wales presents many varied challenges. Utilising advances in computing power and learning from best practice within the United Kingdom and abroad have seen significant improvements in recent years - however, many challenges still remain. Developments in computing and increased processing power comes with a significant price tag; greater numbers of data sources and ensemble feeds brings a better understanding of uncertainty but the wealth of data needs careful management to ensure a clear message of risk is disseminated; new modelling techniques utilise better and faster computation, but lack the history of record and experience gained from the continued use of more established forecasting models. As a flood forecasting team we work to develop coastal and fluvial forecasting models, set them up for operational use and manage the duty role that runs the models in real time. An overview of our current operational flood forecasting system will be presented, along with a discussion on some of the solutions we have in place to address the challenges we face. These include: • real-time updating of fluvial models • rainfall forecasting verification • ensemble forecast data • longer range forecast data • contingency models • offshore to nearshore wave transformation • calculation of wave overtopping

  4. Forecasting Popularity of Videos Using Social Media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Jie; van der Schaar, Mihaela; Liu, Jiangchuan; Li, Haitao

    2015-03-01

    This paper presents a systematic online prediction method (Social-Forecast) that is capable to accurately forecast the popularity of videos promoted by social media. Social-Forecast explicitly considers the dynamically changing and evolving propagation patterns of videos in social media when making popularity forecasts, thereby being situation and context aware. Social-Forecast aims to maximize the forecast reward, which is defined as a tradeoff between the popularity prediction accuracy and the timeliness with which a prediction is issued. The forecasting is performed online and requires no training phase or a priori knowledge. We analytically bound the prediction performance loss of Social-Forecast as compared to that obtained by an omniscient oracle and prove that the bound is sublinear in the number of video arrivals, thereby guaranteeing its short-term performance as well as its asymptotic convergence to the optimal performance. In addition, we conduct extensive experiments using real-world data traces collected from the videos shared in RenRen, one of the largest online social networks in China. These experiments show that our proposed method outperforms existing view-based approaches for popularity prediction (which are not context-aware) by more than 30% in terms of prediction rewards.

  5. Climate forecasts for corn producer decision making

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Corn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate forecasts, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved forecasts, could substantially reduce uncertai...

  6. Intermediate range forecasting - observational requirements and techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayden, Christopher M.

    1992-07-01

    The 1990s will witness a significant increase in meteorological observations, both traditional and innovative. Numerical weather forecast models will improve in terms of scale definition and physics. The role the observations, especially those from space, may play in improving the intermediater range forecast is presented. The greatest challenge is to insure that the modeler and the observationalist exploit their opportunities together.

  7. Resources and Long-Range Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Waldo E.

    1973-01-01

    The author argues that forecasts of quick depletion of resources in the environment as a result of overpopulation and increased usage may not be free from error. Ignorance still exists in understanding the recovery mechanisms of nature. Long-range forecasts are likely to be wrong in such situations. (PS)

  8. Chesapeake Bay hypoxic volume forecasts and results

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scavia, Donald; Evans, Mary Anne

    2013-01-01

    The 2013 Forecast - Given the average Jan-May 2013 total nitrogen load of 162,028 kg/day, this summer’s hypoxia volume forecast is 6.1 km3, slightly smaller than average size for the period of record and almost the same as 2012. The late July 2013 measured volume was 6.92 km3.

  9. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallet, Vivien; Stoltz, Gilles; Mauricette, Boris

    2009-03-01

    We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system Polyphemus. The ensemble simulations are obtained by changes in the physical parameterizations, the numerical schemes, and the input data to the models. The simulations are carried out for summer 2001 over western Europe in order to forecast ozone daily peaks and ozone hourly concentrations. On the basis of past observations and past model forecasts, the learning algorithms produce a weight for each model. A convex or linear combination of the model forecasts is then formed with these weights. This process is repeated for each round of forecasting and is therefore called sequential aggregation. The aggregated forecasts demonstrate good results; for instance, they always show better performance than the best model in the ensemble and they even compete against the best constant linear combination. In addition, the machine learning algorithms come with theoretical guarantees with respect to their performance, that hold for all possible sequences of observations, even nonstochastic ones. Our study also demonstrates the robustness of the methods. We therefore conclude that these aggregation methods are very relevant for operational forecasts.

  10. Techniques for Forecasting Air Passenger Traffic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taneja, N.

    1972-01-01

    The basic techniques of forecasting the air passenger traffic are outlined. These techniques can be broadly classified into four categories: judgmental, time-series analysis, market analysis and analytical. The differences between these methods exist, in part, due to the degree of formalization of the forecasting procedure. Emphasis is placed on describing the analytical method.

  11. Forecasting Enrollments with Fuzzy Time Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Song, Qiang; Chissom, Brad S.

    The concept of fuzzy time series is introduced and used to forecast the enrollment of a university. Fuzzy time series, an aspect of fuzzy set theory, forecasts enrollment using a first-order time-invariant model. To evaluate the model, the conventional linear regression technique is applied and the predicted values obtained are compared to the…

  12. Analog forecasting with dynamics-adapted kernels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Zhizhen; Giannakis, Dimitrios

    2016-09-01

    Analog forecasting is a nonparametric technique introduced by Lorenz in 1969 which predicts the evolution of states of a dynamical system (or observables defined on the states) by following the evolution of the sample in a historical record of observations which most closely resembles the current initial data. Here, we introduce a suite of forecasting methods which improve traditional analog forecasting by combining ideas from kernel methods developed in harmonic analysis and machine learning and state-space reconstruction for dynamical systems. A key ingredient of our approach is to replace single-analog forecasting with weighted ensembles of analogs constructed using local similarity kernels. The kernels used here employ a number of dynamics-dependent features designed to improve forecast skill, including Takens’ delay-coordinate maps (to recover information in the initial data lost through partial observations) and a directional dependence on the dynamical vector field generating the data. Mathematically, our approach is closely related to kernel methods for out-of-sample extension of functions, and we discuss alternative strategies based on the Nyström method and the multiscale Laplacian pyramids technique. We illustrate these techniques in applications to forecasting in a low-order deterministic model for atmospheric dynamics with chaotic metastability, and interannual-scale forecasting in the North Pacific sector of a comprehensive climate model. We find that forecasts based on kernel-weighted ensembles have significantly higher skill than the conventional approach following a single analog.

  13. Streamflow Ensemble Generation using Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watkins, D. W.; O'Connell, S.; Wei, W.; Nykanen, D.; Mahmoud, M.

    2002-12-01

    Although significant progress has been made in understanding the correlation between large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and regional streamflow anomalies, there is a general perception that seasonal climate forecasts are not being used to the fullest extent possible for optimal water resources management. Possible contributing factors are limited knowledge and understanding of climate processes and prediction capabilities, noise in climate signals and inaccuracies in forecasts, and hesitancy on the part of water managers to apply new information or methods that could expose them to greater liability. This work involves a decision support model based on streamflow ensembles developed for the Lower Colorado River Authority in Central Texas. Predicative skill is added to ensemble forecasts that are based on climatology by conditioning the ensembles on observable climate indicators, including streamflow (persistence), soil moisture, land surface temperatures, and large-scale recurrent patterns such as the El Ni¤o-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A Bayesian procedure for updating ensemble probabilities is outlined, and various skill scores are reviewed for evaluating forecast performance. Verification of the ensemble forecasts using a resampling procedure indicates a small but potentially significant improvement in forecast skill that could be exploited in seasonal water management decisions. The ultimate goal of this work will be explicit incorporation of climate forecasts in reservoir operating rules and estimation of the value of the forecasts.

  14. School Science Inspired by Improving Weather Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reid, Heather; Renfrew, Ian A.; Vaughan, Geraint

    2014-01-01

    High winds and heavy rain are regular features of the British weather, and forecasting these events accurately is a major priority for the Met Office and other forecast providers. This is the challenge facing DIAMET, a project involving university groups from Manchester, Leeds, Reading, and East Anglia, together with the Met Office. DIAMET is part…

  15. Why preferring parametric forecasting to nonparametric methods?

    PubMed

    Jabot, Franck

    2015-05-01

    A recent series of papers by Charles T. Perretti and collaborators have shown that nonparametric forecasting methods can outperform parametric methods in noisy nonlinear systems. Such a situation can arise because of two main reasons: the instability of parametric inference procedures in chaotic systems which can lead to biased parameter estimates, and the discrepancy between the real system dynamics and the modeled one, a problem that Perretti and collaborators call "the true model myth". Should ecologists go on using the demanding parametric machinery when trying to forecast the dynamics of complex ecosystems? Or should they rely on the elegant nonparametric approach that appears so promising? It will be here argued that ecological forecasting based on parametric models presents two key comparative advantages over nonparametric approaches. First, the likelihood of parametric forecasting failure can be diagnosed thanks to simple Bayesian model checking procedures. Second, when parametric forecasting is diagnosed to be reliable, forecasting uncertainty can be estimated on virtual data generated with the fitted to data parametric model. In contrast, nonparametric techniques provide forecasts with unknown reliability. This argumentation is illustrated with the simple theta-logistic model that was previously used by Perretti and collaborators to make their point. It should convince ecologists to stick to standard parametric approaches, until methods have been developed to assess the reliability of nonparametric forecasting.

  16. Solar power deployment: Forecasting and planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alanazi, Mohana

    The rapid growth of Photovoltaic (PV) technology has been very visible over the past decade. Recently, the penetration of PV plants to the existing grid has significantly increased. Such increase in the integration of solar energy has brought attention to the solar irradiance forecasting. This thesis presents a thorough research of PV technology, how solar power can be forecasted, and PV planning under uncertainty. Over the last decade, the PV was one of the fastest growing renewable energy technologies. However, the PV system output varies based on weather conditions. Due to the variability and the uncertainty of solar power, the integration of the electricity generated by PV system is considered one of the challenges that have confronted the PV system. This thesis proposes a new forecasting method to reduce the uncertainty of the PV output so the power operator will be able to accommodate its variability. The new forecasting method proposes different processes to be undertaken before the data is fed to the forecasting model. The method converts the data sets included in the forecasting from non-stationary data to a stationary data by applying different processes including: removing the offset, removing night time solar values, and normalization. The new forecasting method aims to reduce the forecasting error and analyzes the error effect on the long term planning through calculating the payback period considering different errors.

  17. Application and evaluation of forecasting methods for municipal solid waste generation in an Eastern-European city.

    PubMed

    Rimaityte, Ingrida; Ruzgas, Tomas; Denafas, Gintaras; Racys, Viktoras; Martuzevicius, Dainius

    2012-01-01

    Forecasting of generation of municipal solid waste (MSW) in developing countries is often a challenging task due to the lack of data and selection of suitable forecasting method. This article aimed to select and evaluate several methods for MSW forecasting in a medium-scaled Eastern European city (Kaunas, Lithuania) with rapidly developing economics, with respect to affluence-related and seasonal impacts. The MSW generation was forecast with respect to the economic activity of the city (regression modelling) and using time series analysis. The modelling based on social-economic indicators (regression implemented in LCA-IWM model) showed particular sensitivity (deviation from actual data in the range from 2.2 to 20.6%) to external factors, such as the synergetic effects of affluence parameters or changes in MSW collection system. For the time series analysis, the combination of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal exponential smoothing (SES) techniques were found to be the most accurate (mean absolute percentage error equalled to 6.5). Time series analysis method was very valuable for forecasting the weekly variation of waste generation data (r (2) > 0.87), but the forecast yearly increase should be verified against the data obtained by regression modelling. The methods and findings of this study may assist the experts, decision-makers and scientists performing forecasts of MSW generation, especially in developing countries.

  18. Developing a Peak Wind Probability Forecast Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, WInifred; Roeder, William

    2007-01-01

    This conference presentation describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations. The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

  19. Application and evaluation of forecasting methods for municipal solid waste generation in an Eastern-European city.

    PubMed

    Rimaityte, Ingrida; Ruzgas, Tomas; Denafas, Gintaras; Racys, Viktoras; Martuzevicius, Dainius

    2012-01-01

    Forecasting of generation of municipal solid waste (MSW) in developing countries is often a challenging task due to the lack of data and selection of suitable forecasting method. This article aimed to select and evaluate several methods for MSW forecasting in a medium-scaled Eastern European city (Kaunas, Lithuania) with rapidly developing economics, with respect to affluence-related and seasonal impacts. The MSW generation was forecast with respect to the economic activity of the city (regression modelling) and using time series analysis. The modelling based on social-economic indicators (regression implemented in LCA-IWM model) showed particular sensitivity (deviation from actual data in the range from 2.2 to 20.6%) to external factors, such as the synergetic effects of affluence parameters or changes in MSW collection system. For the time series analysis, the combination of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal exponential smoothing (SES) techniques were found to be the most accurate (mean absolute percentage error equalled to 6.5). Time series analysis method was very valuable for forecasting the weekly variation of waste generation data (r (2) > 0.87), but the forecast yearly increase should be verified against the data obtained by regression modelling. The methods and findings of this study may assist the experts, decision-makers and scientists performing forecasts of MSW generation, especially in developing countries. PMID:21382880

  20. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

    2009-01-01

    Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and forecasters from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps forecasters estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this task, SMG tasked the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil Forecast Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.