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Sample records for affective forecasting task

  1. Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues

    SciTech Connect

    Giebel, G.; Cline, J.; Frank, H.; Shaw, W.; Pinson, P.; Hodge, B-M; Kariniotakis, G.; Madsen, J.; Möhrlen, C.

    2016-10-03

    Here, this paper presents the new International Energy Agency Wind Task 36 on Forecasting, and invites to collaborate within the group. Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Forecasting for Wind Energy tries to organise international collaboration, among national meteorological centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, MetOffice, met.no, DMI,...), operational forecaster and forecast users. The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions. As first results, an overview of current issues for research in short-term forecasting of wind power is presented.

  2. Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giebel, G.; Cline, J.; Frank, H.; Shaw, W.; Pinson, P.; Hodge, B.-M.; Kariniotakis, G.; Madsen, J.; Möhrlen, C.

    2016-09-01

    This paper presents the new International Energy Agency Wind Task 36 on Forecasting, and invites to collaborate within the group. Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Forecasting for Wind Energy tries to organise international collaboration, among national meteorological centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, MetOffice, met.no, DMI,...), operational forecaster and forecast users. The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions. As first results, an overview of current issues for research in short-term forecasting of wind power is presented.

  3. Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues

    DOE PAGES

    Giebel, G.; Cline, J.; Frank, H.; ...

    2016-10-03

    Here, this paper presents the new International Energy Agency Wind Task 36 on Forecasting, and invites to collaborate within the group. Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Forecasting for Wind Energy tries to organise international collaboration, among national meteorological centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, MetOffice, met.no, DMI,...), operational forecaster and forecast users. The Taskmore » is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions. As first results, an overview of current issues for research in short-term forecasting of wind power is presented.« less

  4. Emotional intelligence: a theoretical framework for individual differences in affective forecasting.

    PubMed

    Hoerger, Michael; Chapman, Benjamin P; Epstein, Ronald M; Duberstein, Paul R

    2012-08-01

    Only recently have researchers begun to examine individual differences in affective forecasting. The present investigation was designed to make a theoretical contribution to this emerging literature by examining the role of emotional intelligence in affective forecasting. Emotional intelligence was hypothesized to be associated with affective forecasting accuracy, memory for emotional reactions, and subsequent improvement on an affective forecasting task involving emotionally evocative pictures. Results from two studies (N = 511) supported our hypotheses. Emotional intelligence was associated with accuracy in predicting, encoding, and consolidating emotional reactions. Furthermore, emotional intelligence was associated with greater improvement on a second affective forecasting task, with the relationship explained by basic memory processes. Implications for future research on basic and applied decision making are discussed.

  5. Emotional Intelligence: A Theoretical Framework for Individual Differences in Affective Forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Hoerger, Michael; Chapman, Benjamin P.; Epstein, Ronald M.; Duberstein, Paul R.

    2011-01-01

    Only recently have researchers begun to examine individual differences in affective forecasting. The present investigation was designed to make a theoretical contribution to this emerging literature by examining the role of emotional intelligence in affective forecasting. Emotional intelligence was hypothesized to be associated with affective forecasting accuracy, memory for emotional reactions, and subsequent improvement on an affective forecasting task involving emotionally-evocative pictures. Results from two studies (N = 511) supported our hypotheses. Emotional intelligence was associated with accuracy in predicting, encoding, and consolidating emotional reactions. Furthermore, emotional intelligence was associated with greater improvement on a second affective forecasting task, with the relationship explained by basic memory processes. Implications for future research on basic and applied decision making are discussed. PMID:22251053

  6. Emotional task management: neural correlates of switching between affective and non-affective task-sets.

    PubMed

    Reeck, Crystal; Egner, Tobias

    2015-08-01

    Although task-switching has been investigated extensively, its interaction with emotionally salient task content remains unclear. Prioritized processing of affective stimulus content may enhance accessibility of affective task-sets and generate increased interference when switching between affective and non-affective task-sets. Previous research has demonstrated that more dominant task-sets experience greater switch costs, as they necessitate active inhibition during performance of less entrenched tasks. Extending this logic to the affective domain, the present experiment examined (a) whether affective task-sets are more dominant than non-affective ones, and (b) what neural mechanisms regulate affective task-sets, so that weaker, non-affective task-sets can be executed. While undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging, participants categorized face stimuli according to either their gender (non-affective task) or their emotional expression (affective task). Behavioral results were consistent with the affective task dominance hypothesis: participants were slower to switch to the affective task, and cross-task interference was strongest when participants tried to switch from the affective to the non-affective task. These behavioral costs of controlling the affective task-set were mirrored in the activation of a right-lateralized frontostriatal network previously implicated in task-set updating and response inhibition. Connectivity between amygdala and right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex was especially pronounced during cross-task interference from affective features.

  7. Affective forecasting bias in preschool children.

    PubMed

    Gautam, Shalini; Bulley, Adam; von Hippel, William; Suddendorf, Thomas

    2017-03-10

    Adults are capable of predicting their emotional reactions to possible future events. Nevertheless, they systematically overestimate the intensity of their future emotional reactions relative to how they feel when these events actually occur. The developmental origin of this "intensity bias" has not yet been examined. Two studies were conducted to test the intensity bias in preschool children. In the first study, 5-year-olds (N=30) predicted how they would feel if they won or lost various games. Comparisons with subsequent self-reported feelings indicated that participants overestimated how sad they would feel to lose the games but did not overestimate their happiness from winning. The second study replicated this effect in another sample of 5-year-olds (n=34) and also found evidence of an intensity bias in 4-year-olds (n=30). These findings provide the first evidence of a negative intensity bias in affective forecasting among young children.

  8. More intense experiences, less intense forecasts: why people overweight probability specifications in affective forecasts.

    PubMed

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K; Vosgerau, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6).

  9. More Intense Experiences, Less Intense Forecasts: Why People Overweight Probability Specifications in Affective Forecasts

    PubMed Central

    Buechel, Eva C.; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K.; Vosgerau, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6). PMID:24128184

  10. Motivated underpinnings of the impact bias in affective forecasts.

    PubMed

    Morewedge, Carey K; Buechel, Eva C

    2013-12-01

    Affective forecasters often exhibit an impact bias, overestimating the intensity and duration of their emotional reaction to future events. Researchers have long wondered whether the impact bias might confer some benefit. We suggest that affective forecasters may strategically overestimate the hedonic impact of events to motivate their production. We report the results of four experiments providing the first support for this hypothesis. The impact bias was greater for forecasters who had chosen which of two events to attempt to produce than for forecasters who had yet to choose (Experiment 1). The impact bias was greater when forecasts were made while forecasters could (or perceived they could) influence whether an event was produced than when its production had been determined but was unknown (Experiments 2A and 2B). Finally, experimentally manipulating the extremity of affective forecasts for an event influenced the amount of effort that forecasters expended to produce it (Experiment 3). The results suggest that the impact bias may not be solely cognitive in origin, but may also have motivated underpinnings.

  11. Accuracy and artifact: reexamining the intensity bias in affective forecasting.

    PubMed

    Levine, Linda J; Lench, Heather C; Kaplan, Robin L; Safer, Martin A

    2012-10-01

    Research on affective forecasting shows that people have a robust tendency to overestimate the intensity of future emotion. We hypothesized that (a) people can accurately predict the intensity of their feelings about events and (b) a procedural artifact contributes to people's tendency to overestimate the intensity of their feelings in general. People may misinterpret the forecasting question as asking how they will feel about a focal event, but they are later asked to report their feelings in general without reference to that event. In the current investigation, participants predicted and reported both their feelings in general and their feelings about an election outcome (Study 1) and an exam grade (Study 3). We also assessed how participants interpreted forecasting questions (Studies 2 and 4) and conducted a meta-analysis of affective forecasting research (Study 5). The results showed that participants accurately predicted the intensity of their feelings about events. They overestimated only when asked to predict how they would feel in general and later report their feelings without reference to the focal event. Most participants, however, misinterpreted requests to predict their feelings in general as asking how they would feel when they were thinking about the focal event. Clarifying the meaning of the forecasting question significantly reduced overestimation. These findings reveal that people have more sophisticated self-knowledge than is commonly portrayed in the affective forecasting literature. Overestimation of future emotion is partly due to a procedure in which people predict one thing but are later asked to report another.

  12. Does the processing fluency of a syllabus affect the forecasted grade and course difficulty?

    PubMed

    Guenther, R Kim

    2012-06-01

    Processing fluency is known to affect a variety of cognitive assessments, but most research has not examined such effects in the context of a real-life experience. In the first experiment, college students, enrolled in either a statistics or cognitive psychology course, read a course syllabus which varied in the clarity of its font and frequency of its vocabulary. Based on the syllabus, students then forecasted their final course grade and the course's difficulty. Despite methodological similarity to other fluency experiments and adequate statistical power, there were no significant differences in forecasts across fluency conditions. Fluency may be discounted in a task which provides information that affects people's lives. This interpretation was bolstered by a second experiment whose participants were students in a statistics course. These students read the cognitive course's syllabus and forecasted better grades and less difficulty in the cognitive course when the font of the syllabus was more clear than unclear.

  13. Affective Forecasting: An Unrecognized Challenge in Making Serious Health Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Arnold, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    Patients facing medical decisions that will impact quality of life make assumptions about how they will adjust emotionally to living with health declines and disability. Despite abundant research on decision-making, we have no direct research on how accurately patients envision their future well-being and how this influences their decisions. Outside medicine, psychological research on “affective forecasting” consistently shows that people poorly predict their future ability to adapt to adversity. This finding is important for medicine, since many serious health decisions hinge on quality-of-life judgments. We describe three specific mechanisms for affective forecasting errors that may influence health decisions: focalism, in which people focus more on what will change than on what will stay the same; immune neglect, in which they fail to envision how their own coping skills will lessen their unhappiness; and failure to predict adaptation, in which people fail to envision shifts in what they value. We discuss emotional and social factors that interact with these cognitive biases. We describe how caregivers can recognize these biases in the clinical setting and suggest interventions to help patients recognize and address affective forecasting errors. PMID:18665428

  14. Affective forecasting and self-rated symptoms of depression, anxiety, and hypomania: evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias.

    PubMed

    Hoerger, Michael; Quirk, Stuart W; Chapman, Benjamin P; Duberstein, Paul R

    2012-01-01

    Emerging research has examined individual differences in affective forecasting; however, we are aware of no published study to date linking psychopathology symptoms to affective forecasting problems. Pitting cognitive theory against depressive realism theory, we examined whether dysphoria was associated with negatively biased affective forecasts or greater accuracy. Participants (n=325) supplied predicted and actual emotional reactions for three days surrounding an emotionally evocative relational event, Valentine's Day. Predictions were made a month prior to the holiday. Consistent with cognitive theory, we found evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias-the tendency of individuals in dysphoric states to overpredict negative emotional reactions to future events. The dysphoric forecasting bias was robust across ratings of positive and negative affect, forecasts for pleasant and unpleasant scenarios, continuous and categorical operationalisations of dysphoria, and three time points of observation. Similar biases were not observed in analyses examining the independent effects of anxiety and hypomania. Findings provide empirical evidence for the long-assumed influence of depressive symptoms on future expectations. The present investigation has implications for affective forecasting studies examining information-processing constructs, decision making, and broader domains of psychopathology.

  15. Comparison versus Contrast: Task Specifics Affect Category Acquisition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ankowski, Amber A.; Vlach, Haley A.; Sandhofer, Catherine M.

    2013-01-01

    A large literature has documented that comparison and contrast lead to better performance in a variety of tasks. However, studies of comparison and contrast present contradictory conclusions as to when and how these processes benefit learners. Across four studies, we examined how the specifics of the comparison and contrast task affect performance…

  16. On emotionally intelligent time travel: individual differences in affective forecasting ability.

    PubMed

    Dunn, Elizabeth W; Brackett, Marc A; Ashton-James, Claire; Schneiderman, Elyse; Salovey, Peter

    2007-01-01

    In two studies, the authors examined whether people who are high in emotional intelligence (EI) make more accurate forecasts about their own affective responses to future events. All participants completed a performance measure of EI (the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test) as well as a self-report measure of EI. Affective forecasting ability was assessed using a longitudinal design in which participants were asked to predict how they would feel and report their actual feelings following three events in three different domains: politics and academics (Study 1) and sports (Study 2). Across these events, individual differences in forecasting ability were predicted by participants' scores on the performance measure, but not the self-report measure, of EI; high-EI individuals exhibited greater affective forecasting accuracy. Emotion Management, a subcomponent of EI, emerged as the strongest predictor of forecasting ability.

  17. State-of-the-art Space Weather Forecast with AFFECTS and HELCATS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothmer, Volker; Affects Team; Helcats Team

    2016-04-01

    The space weather projects fostered through the European Union FP7 and Horizon 2020 programs have opened up new horizons in the field of space weather research and have facilitated state-of-the-art-forecasts. Here we present an overview on the services and space weather forecasts the EU FP7 project AFFECTS (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space) is providing and how the precision of the forecast is qualitatively greatly enhanced by new results derived from the EU FP7 project HELCATS (Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis, and Techniques Services). The forecast techniques base on near-real time multipoint analysis of coronal mass ejections observed by SOHO and STEREO and simulations of their Sun to Earth evolution.

  18. Age differences in affective forecasting and experienced emotion surrounding the 2008 US presidential election.

    PubMed

    Scheibe, Susanne; Mata, Rui; Carstensen, Laura L

    2011-09-01

    In everyday life, people frequently make decisions based on tacit or explicit forecasts about the emotional consequences associated with the possible choices. We investigated age differences in such forecasts and their accuracy by surveying voters about their expected and, subsequently, their actual emotional responses to the 2008 US presidential election. A sample of 762 Democratic and Republican voters aged 20 to 80 years participated in a web-based study; 346 could be re-contacted two days after the election. Older adults forecasted lower increases in high-arousal emotions (e.g., excitement after winning; anger after losing) and larger increases in low-arousal emotions (e.g., sluggishness after losing) than younger adults. Age differences in actual responses to the election were consistent with forecasts, albeit less pervasive. Additionally, among supporters of the winning candidate, but not among supporters of the losing candidate, forecasting accuracy was enhanced with age, suggesting a positivity effect in affective forecasting. These results add to emerging findings about the role of valence and arousal in emotional ageing and demonstrate age differences in affective forecasting about a real-world event with an emotionally charged outcome.

  19. Creating a standard models for the specialized GIS database and their functions in solving forecast tasks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharapatov, Abish

    2015-04-01

    geological knowledge constitutes development of bank models of the analyzed geological structures within various ranges, ore-bearing features described by numerous prospecting indicators. Created standard models are entered into database of specialized GIS-technology. Models are used for solving forecasting tasks on the principle of comparing the formalized features of the standard with the forecast objects. Quantitative estimation is the similarity coefficient. Database is necessary in the planning methodology for conducting field research, and in subsurface resource management in the region.

  20. Assessing Affect after Mathematical Problem Solving Tasks: Validating the Chamberlin Affective Instrument for Mathematical Problem Solving

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chamberlin, Scott A.; Powers, Robert A.

    2013-01-01

    The focus of the article is the validation of an instrument to assess gifted students' affect after mathematical problem solving tasks. Participants were 225 students identified by their district as gifted in grades four to six. The Chamberlin Affective Instrument for Mathematical Problem Solving was used to assess feelings, emotions, and…

  1. Oculomotor tasks affect differently postural control in healthy children.

    PubMed

    Bucci, Maria Pia; Ajrezo, Layla; Wiener-Vacher, Sylvette

    2015-11-01

    Eye movements affect postural stability in children. The present study focuses on the effect of different types of eye movements on postural stability in healthy children. Both eye movements and postural stability have been recorded in 51 healthy children from 6.3 to 15.5 years old. Eye movements were recorded binocularly with a video oculography (MobilEBT(®)), and postural stability was measured while child was standing on a force platform (TechnoConcept(®)). Children performed three oculomotor tasks: saccades, pursuits and reading a text silently. We measured the number of saccades made in the three oculomotor tasks, the number of words read, and the surface area, the length and mean velocity of the center of pressure (CoP). According to previous studies, postural control improves with age until 10-12 years. Saccades toward a target as well as during a reading task reduce significantly the CoP displacement and its velocity, while during pursuit eye movements all children increase postural parameters (i.e., the surface area, the length and mean velocity of the CoP). These results suggest the presence of an interaction between the oculomotor control and the postural system. Visual attention to perform saccades (to stationary targets or to words) influences postural stability more than the frequency of saccade triggering does.

  2. When idols look into the future: fair treatment modulates the affective forecasting error in talent show candidates.

    PubMed

    Feys, Marjolein; Anseel, Frederik

    2015-03-01

    People's affective forecasts are often inaccurate because they tend to overestimate how they will feel after an event. As life decisions are often based on affective forecasts, it is crucial to find ways to manage forecasting errors. We examined the impact of a fair treatment on forecasting errors in candidates in a Belgian reality TV talent show. We found that perceptions of fair treatment increased the forecasting error for losers (a negative audition decision) but decreased it for winners (a positive audition decision). For winners, this effect was even more pronounced when candidates were highly invested in their self-view as a future pop idol whereas for losers, the effect was more pronounced when importance was low. The results in this study point to a potential paradox between maximizing happiness and decreasing forecasting errors. A fair treatment increased the forecasting error for losers, but actually made them happier.

  3. My Imagination versus Your Feelings: Can Personal Affective Forecasts Be Improved by Knowing Other Peoples' Emotions?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walsh, Emma; Ayton, Peter

    2009-01-01

    A proposed remedy for biased affective forecasts is to base judgments on the actual feelings of people (surrogates) currently experiencing the event, rather than using imagination which conjures an inaccurate vision of the future. Gilbert et al. (2009) forced people to use surrogate reports by withholding all event information, resulting in better…

  4. Affective Forecasting: Teaching a Useful, Accessible, and Humbling Area of Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kurtz, Jaime L.

    2016-01-01

    All students, from college freshmen to advanced graduate students, have asked themselves, "Will this decision make me happy?" The vast majority of them have been wrong. Affective forecasting, the process of predicting future feelings, is a topic of great interest to students due to its applicable and highly relatable nature. This article…

  5. Extrinsic value orientation and affective forecasting: overestimating the rewards, underestimating the costs.

    PubMed

    Sheldon, Kennon M; Gunz, Alexander; Nichols, Charles P; Ferguson, Yuna

    2010-02-01

    We examined affective forecasting errors as a possible explanation of the perennial appeal of extrinsic values and goals. Study 1 found that although people relatively higher in extrinsic (money, fame, image) compared to intrinsic (growth, intimacy, community) value orientation (REVO) are less happy, they nevertheless believe that attaining extrinsic goals offers a strong potential route to happiness. Study 2's longitudinal experimental design randomly assigned participants to pursue either 3 extrinsic or 3 intrinsic goals over 4 weeks, and REVO again predicted stronger forecasts regarding extrinsic goals. However, not even extrinsically oriented participants gained well-being benefits from attaining extrinsic goals, whereas all participants tended to gain in happiness from attaining intrinsic goals. Study 3 showed that the effect of REVO on forecasts is mediated by extrinsic individuals' belief that extrinsic goals will satisfy autonomy and competence needs. It appears that some people overestimate the emotional benefits of achieving extrinsic goals, to their potential detriment.

  6. Personality and affective forecasting: trait introverts underpredict the hedonic benefits of acting extraverted.

    PubMed

    Zelenski, John M; Whelan, Deanna C; Nealis, Logan J; Besner, Christina M; Santoro, Maya S; Wynn, Jessica E

    2013-06-01

    People report enjoying momentary extraverted behavior, and this does not seem to depend on trait levels of introversion-extraversion. Assuming that introverts desire enjoyment, this finding raises the question, why do introverts not act extraverted more often? This research explored a novel explanation, that trait introverts make an affective forecasting error, underpredicting the hedonic benefits of extraverted behavior. Study 1 (n = 97) found that trait introverts forecast less activated positive and pleasant affect and more negative and self-conscious affect (compared to extraverts) when asked to imagine acting extraverted, but not introverted, across a variety of hypothetical situations. Studies 2-5 (combined n = 495) found similar results using a between-subjects approach and laboratory situations. We replicated findings that people enjoy acting extraverted and that this does not depend on disposition. Accordingly, the personality differences in affective forecasts represent errors. In these studies, introverts tended to be less accurate, particularly by overestimating the negative affect and self-consciousness associated with their extraverted behavior. This may explain why introverts do not act extraverted more often (i.e., they overestimate hedonic costs that do not actually materialize) and have implications for understanding, and potentially trying to change, introverts' characteristically lower levels of happiness.

  7. Propagation of Forecast Errors from the Sun to LEO Trajectories: How Does Drag Uncertainty Affect Conjunction Frequency?

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-01

    density is in turn strongly controlled by incident ultraviolet radiation from the sun . Accordingly, modeling and forecasting upper atmospheric density...Propagation of Forecast Errors from the Sun to LEO Trajectories: How Does Drag Uncertainty Affect Conjunction Frequency? John Emmert, Jeff Byers...trajectories of most objects in low- Earth orbit, and solar variability is the largest source of error in upper atmospheric density forecasts. There is

  8. Underestimating nearby nature: affective forecasting errors obscure the happy path to sustainability.

    PubMed

    Nisbet, Elizabeth K; Zelenski, John M

    2011-09-01

    Modern lifestyles disconnect people from nature, and this may have adverse consequences for the well-being of both humans and the environment. In two experiments, we found that although outdoor walks in nearby nature made participants much happier than indoor walks did, participants made affective forecasting errors, such that they systematically underestimated nature's hedonic benefit. The pleasant moods experienced on outdoor nature walks facilitated a subjective sense of connection with nature, a construct strongly linked with concern for the environment and environmentally sustainable behavior. To the extent that affective forecasts determine choices, our findings suggest that people fail to maximize their time in nearby nature and thus miss opportunities to increase their happiness and relatedness to nature. Our findings suggest a happy path to sustainability, whereby contact with nature fosters individual happiness and environmentally responsible behavior.

  9. Task difficulty in mental arithmetic affects microsaccadic rates and magnitudes.

    PubMed

    Siegenthaler, Eva; Costela, Francisco M; McCamy, Michael B; Di Stasi, Leandro L; Otero-Millan, Jorge; Sonderegger, Andreas; Groner, Rudolf; Macknik, Stephen; Martinez-Conde, Susana

    2014-01-01

    Microsaccades are involuntary, small-magnitude saccadic eye movements that occur during attempted visual fixation. Recent research has found that attention can modulate microsaccade dynamics, but few studies have addressed the effects of task difficulty on microsaccade parameters, and those have obtained contradictory results. Further, no study to date has investigated the influence of task difficulty on microsaccade production during the performance of non-visual tasks. Thus, the effects of task difficulty on microsaccades, isolated from sensory modality, remain unclear. Here we investigated the effects of task difficulty on microsaccades during the performance of a non-visual, mental arithmetic task with two levels of complexity. We found that microsaccade rates decreased and microsaccade magnitudes increased with increased task difficulty. We propose that changes in microsaccade rates and magnitudes with task difficulty are mediated by the effects of varying attentional inputs on the rostral superior colliculus activity map.

  10. Improving children's affective decision making in the Children's Gambling Task.

    PubMed

    Andrews, Glenda; Moussaumai, Jennifer

    2015-11-01

    Affective decision making was examined in 108 children (3-, 4-, and 5-year-olds) using the Children's Gambling Task (CGT). Children completed the CGT and then responded to awareness questions. Children in the binary_experience and binary_experience+awareness (not control) conditions first completed two simpler versions. Children in the binary_experience+awareness condition also responded to questions about relational components of the simpler versions. Experience with simpler versions facilitated decision making in 4- and 5-year-olds, but 3-year-olds' advantageous choices declined across trial blocks in the binary_experience and control conditions. Responding to questions about relational components further benefited the 4- and 5-year-olds. The 3-year-olds' advantageous choices on the final block were at chance level in the binary_experience+awareness condition but were below chance level in the other conditions. Awareness following the CGT was strongly correlated with advantageous choices and with age. Awareness was demonstrated by 5-year-olds (all conditions) and 4-year-olds (binary_experience and binary_experience+awareness) but not by 3-year-olds. The findings demonstrate the importance of complexity and conscious awareness in cognitive development.

  11. Does a Speaking Task Affect Second Language Comprehensibility?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crowther, Dustin; Trofimovich, Pavel; Isaacs, Talia; Saito, Kazuya

    2015-01-01

    The current study investigated task effects on listener perception of second language (L2) comprehensibility (ease of understanding). Sixty university-level adult speakers of English from 4 first language (L1) backgrounds (Chinese, Romance, Hindi, Farsi), with 15 speakers per group, were recorded performing 2 tasks (IELTS long-turn speaking task…

  12. Luminance controlled pupil size affects Landolt C task performance

    SciTech Connect

    Berman, S.M. ); Fein, G. ); Jewett, D.L.; Ashford, F. )

    1993-02-01

    Subjects judged the orientation of a 2 min. gap Landolt C located at a distance of 2.4 m. The stimuli were presented in central vision on a CRT, at low to medium contrast. The effects of varying the spectrum and luminance of surround lighting were assessed on both pupil size (measured using infrared pupillometry during task performance) and task accuracy. The task display was protected from the surround lighting, so that its luminance and contrast could be varied independently of the changes in the surround lighting. Indirect surround illumination was provided by either two illuminants of very different scotopic spectral content but with the same photopic luminance (Experiments 1 and 3), or by using the same illuminant at two different luminance levels (Experiment 2). In Experiment 3, the effect of changing surround spectrum was compared to the effect of varying task background luminance between 12 cd/m[sup 2] and 73 cd/m[sup 2]. In all experiments, scotopically enhanced surround lighting produced pupil areas which were reduced by almost 50% in comparison with surround lighting with relatively less scotopic luminance. Concomitantly there was improvement in Landolt C task performance with the scotopically enhanced surround lighting at all contrast and luminance levels. In these experiments, smaller pupil sizes were associated with significantly better visual-task performance in spite of lower task retinal illuminance when compared to the condition with larger pupils. These results suggest that changes in surround spectrum can compensate for the effect on task performance of a reduction in task luminance and supports the hypothesis that lighting energy savings could accrue in the workplace by shifting lamp spectra to obtain greater scotopic efficacy.

  13. Luminance controlled pupil size affects Landolt C task performance. Revision

    SciTech Connect

    Berman, S.M.; Fein, G.; Jewett, D.L.; Ashford, F.

    1993-02-01

    Subjects judged the orientation of a 2 min. gap Landolt C located at a distance of 2.4 m. The stimuli were presented in central vision on a CRT, at low to medium contrast. The effects of varying the spectrum and luminance of surround lighting were assessed on both pupil size (measured using infrared pupillometry during task performance) and task accuracy. The task display was protected from the surround lighting, so that its luminance and contrast could be varied independently of the changes in the surround lighting. Indirect surround illumination was provided by either two illuminants of very different scotopic spectral content but with the same photopic luminance (Experiments 1 and 3), or by using the same illuminant at two different luminance levels (Experiment 2). In Experiment 3, the effect of changing surround spectrum was compared to the effect of varying task background luminance between 12 cd/m{sup 2} and 73 cd/m{sup 2}. In all experiments, scotopically enhanced surround lighting produced pupil areas which were reduced by almost 50% in comparison with surround lighting with relatively less scotopic luminance. Concomitantly there was improvement in Landolt C task performance with the scotopically enhanced surround lighting at all contrast and luminance levels. In these experiments, smaller pupil sizes were associated with significantly better visual-task performance in spite of lower task retinal illuminance when compared to the condition with larger pupils. These results suggest that changes in surround spectrum can compensate for the effect on task performance of a reduction in task luminance and supports the hypothesis that lighting energy savings could accrue in the workplace by shifting lamp spectra to obtain greater scotopic efficacy.

  14. Distractor onset but not preparation time affects the frequency of task confusions in task switching

    PubMed Central

    Steinhauser, Marco; Gade, Miriam

    2015-01-01

    When participants rapidly switch between tasks that share the same stimuli and responses, task confusions (i.e., the accidental application of the wrong task) can occur. The present study investigated whether these task confusions result from failures of endogenous control (i.e., from ineffective task preparation) or from failures of exogenous control (i.e., from stimulus-induced task conflicts). The frequency of task confusions was estimated by considering the relative proportion of distractor errors, that is, errors that result when participants erroneously respond to the distractor associated with the alternative task. In Experiment 1, the efficiency of exogenous control was manipulated by varying the temporal order of target and distractor presentation. In Experiment 2, the efficiency of endogenous control was manipulated by varying the time available for preparing the task in advance. It turned out that only the efficiency of exogenous control but not the efficiency of endogenous control influenced the proportion of distractor errors. Accordingly, task confusions are more related to failures in exogenous control. PMID:26579050

  15. Prior task experience affects temporal prediction and estimation

    PubMed Central

    Tobin, Simon; Grondin, Simon

    2015-01-01

    It has been shown that prior experience with a task improves temporal prediction, even when the amount of prior experience with the task is often limited. The present study targeted the role of extensive training on temporal prediction. Expert and intermediate runners had to predict the time of a 5 km running competition. Furthermore, after the race’s completion, participants had to estimate their running time so that it could be compared with the predicted time. Results show that expert runners were more accurate than intermediate runners for both predicting and estimating their running time. Furthermore, only expert runners had an estimation that was more accurate than their initial prediction. The results confirm the role of prior task experience in both temporal prediction and estimation. PMID:26217261

  16. Prior task experience affects temporal prediction and estimation.

    PubMed

    Tobin, Simon; Grondin, Simon

    2015-01-01

    It has been shown that prior experience with a task improves temporal prediction, even when the amount of prior experience with the task is often limited. The present study targeted the role of extensive training on temporal prediction. Expert and intermediate runners had to predict the time of a 5 km running competition. Furthermore, after the race's completion, participants had to estimate their running time so that it could be compared with the predicted time. Results show that expert runners were more accurate than intermediate runners for both predicting and estimating their running time. Furthermore, only expert runners had an estimation that was more accurate than their initial prediction. The results confirm the role of prior task experience in both temporal prediction and estimation.

  17. Viewer Perspective Affects Central Bottleneck Requirements in Spatial Translation Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Franz, Elizabeth A.; Sebastian, Alexandra; Hust, Christina; Norris, Tom

    2008-01-01

    A psychological refractory period (PRP) approach and the locus of slack logic were applied to examine the novel question of whether spatial translation processes can begin before the central bottleneck when effector or noneffector stimuli are processed from an egocentric (viewer-centered) perspective. In single tasks, trials requiring spatial…

  18. Affective forecasting in an orangutan: predicting the hedonic outcome of novel juice mixes.

    PubMed

    Sauciuc, Gabriela-Alina; Persson, Tomas; Bååth, Rasmus; Bobrowicz, Katarzyna; Osvath, Mathias

    2016-11-01

    Affective forecasting is an ability that allows the prediction of the hedonic outcome of never-before experienced situations, by mentally recombining elements of prior experiences into possible scenarios, and pre-experiencing what these might feel like. It has been hypothesised that this ability is uniquely human. For example, given prior experience with the ingredients, but in the absence of direct experience with the mixture, only humans are said to be able to predict that lemonade tastes better with sugar than without it. Non-human animals, on the other hand, are claimed to be confined to predicting-exclusively and inflexibly-the outcome of previously experienced situations. Relying on gustatory stimuli, we devised a non-verbal method for assessing affective forecasting and tested comparatively one Sumatran orangutan and ten human participants. Administered as binary choices, the test required the participants to mentally construct novel juice blends from familiar ingredients and to make hedonic predictions concerning the ensuing mixes. The orangutan's performance was within the range of that shown by the humans. Both species made consistent choices that reflected independently measured taste preferences for the stimuli. Statistical models fitted to the data confirmed the predictive accuracy of such a relationship. The orangutan, just like humans, thus seems to have been able to make hedonic predictions concerning never-before experienced events.

  19. Identification of Occupational Areas for Indiana's Future. Final Report of the Technology Forecasting Task Force.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Indiana State Commission on Vocational and Technical Education, Indianapolis.

    A task force representing the Indiana private sector was convened for two purposes: to (1) identify the impact of technology on required worker skills, the labor market, and the vocational education, training, and employment system; and (2) identify occupational areas that should be future growth areas for the state. Task force members reviewed…

  20. The future in clinical genetics: affective forecasting biases in patient and clinician decision making.

    PubMed

    Peters, S A; Laham, S M; Pachter, N; Winship, I M

    2014-04-01

    When clinicians facilitate and patients make decisions about predictive genetic testing, they often base their choices on the predicted emotional consequences of positive and negative test results. Research from psychology and decision making suggests that such predictions may often be biased. Work on affective forecasting-predicting one's future emotional states-shows that people tend to overestimate the impact of (especially negative) emotional events on their well-being; a phenomenon termed the impact bias. In this article, we review the causes and consequences of the impact bias in medical decision making, with a focus on applying such findings to predictive testing in clinical genetics. We also recommend strategies for reducing the impact bias and consider the ethical and practical implications of doing so.

  1. Biases in affective forecasting and recall in individuals with depression and anxiety symptoms.

    PubMed

    Wenze, Susan J; Gunthert, Kathleen C; German, Ramaris E

    2012-07-01

    The authors used experience sampling to investigate biases in affective forecasting and recall in individuals with varying levels of depression and anxiety symptoms. Participants who were higher in depression symptoms demonstrated stronger (more pessimistic) negative mood prediction biases, marginally stronger negative mood recall biases, and weaker (less optimistic) positive mood prediction and recall biases. Participants who were higher in anxiety symptoms demonstrated stronger negative mood prediction biases, but positive mood prediction biases that were on par with those who were lower in anxiety. Anxiety symptoms were not associated with mood recall biases. Neither depression symptoms nor anxiety symptoms were associated with bias in event prediction. Their findings fit well with the tripartite model of depression and anxiety. Results are also consistent with the conceptualization of anxiety as a "forward-looking" disorder, and with theories that emphasize the importance of pessimism and general negative information processing in depressive functioning.

  2. Performing a secondary executive task with affective stimuli interferes with decision making under risk conditions.

    PubMed

    Gathmann, Bettina; Pawlikowski, Mirko; Schöler, Tobias; Brand, Matthias

    2014-05-01

    Previous studies demonstrated that executive functions are crucial for advantageous decision making under risk and that therefore decision making is disrupted when working memory capacity is demanded while working on a decision task. While some studies also showed that emotions can affect decision making under risk, it is unclear how affective processing and executive functions predict decision-making performance in interaction. The current experimental study used a between-subjects design to examine whether affective pictures (positive and negative pictures compared to neutral pictures), included in a parallel executive task (working memory 2-back task), have an impact on decision making under risk as assessed by the Game of Dice Task (GDT). Moreover, the performance GDT plus 2-back task was compared to the performance in the GDT without any additional task (GDT solely). The results show that the performance in the GDT differed between groups (positive, negative, neutral, and GDT solely). The groups with affective pictures, especially those with positive pictures in the 2-back task, showed more disadvantageous decisions in the GDT than the groups with neutral pictures and the group performing the GDT without any additional task. However, executive functions moderated the effect of the affective pictures. Regardless of affective influence, subjects with good executive functions performed advantageously in the GDT. These findings support the assumption that executive functions and emotional processing interact in predicting decision making under risk.

  3. Aging affects motor skill learning when the task requires inhibitory control.

    PubMed

    Brosseau, Julie; Potvin, Marie-Julie; Rouleau, Isabelle

    2007-01-01

    Few studies have examined the influence of aging on motor skill learning (MSL) tasks involving different skills and conditions. Two tasks, each including two different conditions (repeated and nonrepeated), were used: (a) the Mirror Tracing task, requiring the inhibition of an overlearned response and the learning of a new visuomotor association, and (b) the Pursuit Tracking task, mainly requiring the processing of visuospatial stimuli. We hypothesized that older participants would benefit as much as younger participants from the stimuli repetition and that they would exhibit a slower learning rate exclusively on the Mirror Tracing task. As expected, older and younger participants' MSL were not differentially affected by task conditions. They also showed a similar learning rate on the Pursuit Tracking task and a subgroup of older participants exhibited MSL difficulties on the Mirror Tracing task. Problems in the inhibitory control of competing motor memories could explain these age-related MSL difficulties.

  4. Embodied Information in Cognitive Tasks: Haptic Weight Sensations Affect Task Performance and Processing Style

    PubMed Central

    Kaspar, Kai; Vennekötter, Alina

    2015-01-01

    Research in the field of embodied cognition showed that incidental weight sensations influence peoples’ judgments about a variety of issues and objects. Most studies found that heaviness compared to lightness increases the perception of importance, seriousness, and potency. In two experiments, we broadened this scope by investigating the impact of weight sensations on cognitive performance. In Experiment 1, we found that the performance in an anagram task was reduced when participants held a heavy versus a light clipboard in their hands. Reduced performance was accompanied by an increase in the perceived effort. In Experiment 2, a heavy clipboard elicited a specific response heuristic in a two-alternative forced-choice task. Participants showed a significant right side bias when holding a heavy clipboard in their hands. After the task, participants in the heavy clipboard condition reported to be more frustrated than participants in the light clipboard condition. In both experiments, we did not find evidence for mediated effects that had been proposed by previous literature. Overall, the results indicate that weight effects go beyond judgment formation and highlight new avenues for future research. PMID:26421084

  5. Task-irrelevant spider associations affect categorization performance.

    PubMed

    Woud, Marcella L; Ellwart, Thomas; Langner, Oliver; Rinck, Mike; Becker, Eni S

    2011-09-01

    In two studies, the Single Target Implicit Association Test (STIAT) was used to investigate automatic associations toward spiders. In both experiments, we measured the strength of associations between pictures of spiders and either threat-related words or pleasant words. Unlike previous studies, we administered a STIAT version in which stimulus contents was task-irrelevant: The target spider pictures were categorized according to the label picture, irrespective of what they showed. In Study 1, spider-fearful individuals versus non-fearful controls were tested, Study 2 compared spider enthusiasts to non-fearful controls. Results revealed that the novel STIAT version was sensitive to group differences in automatic associations toward spiders. In Study 1, it successfully distinguished between spider-fearful individuals and non-fearful controls. Moreover, STIAT scores predicted automatic fear responses best, whereas controlled avoidance behavior was best predicted by the FAS (German translation of the Fear of Spiders Questionnaire). The results of Study 2 demonstrated that the novel STIAT version was also able to differentiate between spider enthusiasts and non-fearful controls.

  6. Task relevance of emotional information affects anxiety-linked attention bias in visual search.

    PubMed

    Dodd, Helen F; Vogt, Julia; Turkileri, Nilgun; Notebaert, Lies

    2017-01-01

    Task relevance affects emotional attention in healthy individuals. Here, we investigate whether the association between anxiety and attention bias is affected by the task relevance of emotion during an attention task. Participants completed two visual search tasks. In the emotion-irrelevant task, participants were asked to indicate whether a discrepant face in a crowd of neutral, middle-aged faces was old or young. Irrelevant to the task, target faces displayed angry, happy, or neutral expressions. In the emotion-relevant task, participants were asked to indicate whether a discrepant face in a crowd of middle-aged neutral faces was happy or angry (target faces also varied in age). Trait anxiety was not associated with attention in the emotion-relevant task. However, in the emotion-irrelevant task, trait anxiety was associated with a bias for angry over happy faces. These findings demonstrate that the task relevance of emotional information affects conclusions about the presence of an anxiety-linked attention bias.

  7. Cognition and affective style: Individual differences in brain electrical activity during spatial and verbal tasks.

    PubMed

    Bell, Martha Ann; Fox, Nathan A

    2003-12-01

    Relations between brain electrical activity and performance on two cognitive tasks were examined in a normal population selected to be high on self-reported measures of Positive or Negative Affectivity. Twenty-five right-handed women, from an original pool of 308 college undergraduates, were the participants. EEG was recorded during baseline and during psychometrically matched spatial and verbal tasks. As predicted, participants who were high in Positive Affectivity performed equally well on the verbal and spatial tasks, while participants who were high in Negative Affectivity had spatial scores that were lower than their verbal scores. There were no group differences in baseline EEG. Both groups exhibited left central activation (i.e., alpha suppression) during the verbal and spatial tasks. When EEG data were analyzed separately for the group high in Positive Affectivity, there was evidence of parietal activation for the spatial task relative to the verbal task. The EEG data for the group high in Negative Affectivity had comparable EEG power values during verbal and spatial tasks at parietal scalp locations. These data suggest that, within a selected normal population, differences in affective style may interact with cognitive performance and with the brain electrical activity associated with that performance.

  8. Observational uncertainty of Arctic sea-ice concentration significantly affects seasonal climate forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bunzel, Felix; Notz, Dirk; Baehr, Johanna; Müller, Wolfgang; Fröhlich, Kristina

    2016-04-01

    We examine how the choice of a particular satellite-retrieved sea-ice concentration dataset used for initialising seasonal climate forecasts impacts the prediction skill of Arctic sea-ice area and Northern hemispheric 2-meter air temperatures. To do so, we performed two assimilation runs with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) from 1979 to 2012, where atmospheric and oceanic parameters as well as sea-ice concentration were assimilated using Newtonian relaxation. The two assimilation runs differ only in the sea-ice concentration dataset used for assimilating sea ice. In the first run, we use sea-ice concentrations as derived by the NASA-Team algorithm, while in the second run we use sea-ice concentrations as derived from the Bootstrap algorithm. A major difference between these two sea-ice concentration data products involves the treatment of melt ponds. While for both products melt ponds appear as open water in the raw satellite data, the Bootstrap algorithm more strongly attempts to offset this systematic bias by synthetically increasing the retrieved ice concentration during summer months. For each year of the two assimilation runs we performed a 10-member ensemble of hindcast experiments starting on 1 May and 1 November with a hindcast length of 6 months. For hindcasts started in November, initial differences in Arctic sea-ice area and surface temperature decrease rapidly throughout the freezing period. For hindcasts started in May, initial sea-ice area differences increase over time. By the end of the melting period, this causes significant differences in 2-meter air temperature of regionally more than 3°C. Hindcast skill for surface temperatures over Europe and North America is higher with Bootstrap initialization during summer and with NASA Team initialisation during winter. This implies that the choice of the sea-ice data product and, thus, the observational uncertainty also affects forecasts of teleconnections that depend on Northern

  9. Conceptions of Ability and Related Affects in Task Involvement and Ego Involvement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jagacinski, Carolyn M.; Nicholls, John G.

    1984-01-01

    Five studies were conducted to determine if college students employ different conceptions of ability in self-referenced (task-involving) and interpersonally competitive (ego-involving) situations. Competence and positive affects were associated with higher effort in task-involving situations but negatively associated with higher effort in…

  10. Interaction between Task Oriented and Affective Information Processing in Cognitive Robotics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haazebroek, Pascal; van Dantzig, Saskia; Hommel, Bernhard

    There is an increasing interest in endowing robots with emotions. Robot control however is still often very task oriented. We present a cognitive architecture that allows the combination of and interaction between task representations and affective information processing. Our model is validated by comparing simulation results with empirical data from experimental psychology.

  11. To branch out or stay focused? Affective shifts differentially predict organizational citizenship behavior and task performance.

    PubMed

    Yang, Liu-Qin; Simon, Lauren S; Wang, Lei; Zheng, Xiaoming

    2016-06-01

    We draw from personality systems interaction (PSI) theory (Kuhl, 2000) and regulatory focus theory (Higgins, 1997) to examine how dynamic positive and negative affective processes interact to predict both task and contextual performance. Using a twice-daily diary design over the course of a 3-week period, results from multilevel regression analysis revealed that distinct patterns of change in positive and negative affect optimally predicted contextual and task performance among a sample of 71 employees at a medium-sized technology company. Specifically, within persons, increases (upshifts) in positive affect over the course of a workday better predicted the subsequent day's organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) when such increases were coupled with decreases (downshifts) in negative affect. The optimal pattern of change in positive and negative affect differed, however, in predicting task performance. That is, upshifts in positive affect over the course of the workday better predicted the subsequent day's task performance when such upshifts were accompanied by upshifts in negative affect. The contribution of our findings to PSI theory and the broader affective and motivation regulation literatures, along with practical implications, are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record

  12. Competence and Affect in Task Involvement and Ego Involvement: The Impact of Social Comparison Information.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jagacinski, Carolyn M.; Nicholls, John G.

    1987-01-01

    Two studies investigated the impact of information about the effort and performance of others on students' anticipated affects and judgments of competence given success in task-involving and ego-involving contexts. Without social comparison information, competence and positive affects were judged higher when students were asked to imagine…

  13. Need for Cognitive Closure Modulates How Perceptual Decisions Are Affected by Task Difficulty and Outcome Relevance

    PubMed Central

    Viola, Vanda; Tosoni, Annalisa; Brizi, Ambra; Salvato, Ilaria; Kruglanski, Arie W.; Galati, Gaspare; Mannetti, Lucia

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the extent to which Need for Cognitive Closure (NCC), an individual-level epistemic motivation, can explain inter-individual variability in the cognitive effort invested on a perceptual decision making task (the random motion task). High levels of NCC are manifested in a preference for clarity, order and structure and a desire for firm and stable knowledge. The study evaluated how NCC moderates the impact of two variables known to increase the amount of cognitive effort invested on a task, namely task ambiguity (i.e., the difficulty of the perceptual discrimination) and outcome relevance (i.e., the monetary gain associated with a correct discrimination). Based on previous work and current design, we assumed that reaction times (RTs) on our motion discrimination task represent a valid index of effort investment. Task ambiguity was associated with increased cognitive effort in participants with low or medium NCC but, interestingly, it did not affect the RTs of participants with high NCC. A different pattern of association was observed for outcome relevance; high outcome relevance increased cognitive effort in participants with moderate or high NCC, but did not affect the performance of low NCC participants. In summary, the performance of individuals with low NCC was affected by task difficulty but not by outcome relevance, whereas individuals with high NCC were influenced by outcome relevance but not by task difficulty; only participants with medium NCC were affected by both task difficulty and outcome relevance. These results suggest that perceptual decision making is influenced by the interaction between context and NCC. PMID:26716987

  14. Examining the association between rumination, negative affectivity, and negative affect induced by a paced auditory serial addition task.

    PubMed

    Feldner, Matthew T; Leen-Feldner, Ellen W; Zvolensky, Michael J; Lejuez, C W

    2006-09-01

    The present study examined the relations among a depressive ruminative response style, a general propensity to experience negative affectivity, and negative affect induced by a paced serial auditory addition task (PASAT). Ninety nonclinical individuals completed a computerized version of the PASAT, which elicits a generalized negative affect response [Lejuez, C. W., Kahler, C. W., & Brown, R. A. (2003). A modified computer version of the paced auditory serial addition task (PASAT) as a laboratory-based stressor: Implications for behavioral assessment. Behavior Therapist, 26, 290-292]. As hypothesized, there was a moderate correlation between depressive rumination and a propensity to experience negative affect, as indexed both by a significant association with a negative affect personality factor and the prediction of negative affect elicited during the provocation. Findings also suggested that dispositional negative affectivity moderated the effects of a depressive ruminative response style on the valence but not arousal dimensions of emotional responding to the challenge. These findings are discussed in terms of improving our understanding of rumination and its potential role in emotional vulnerability processes.

  15. Task difficulty and response complexity modulate affective priming by emotional facial expressions.

    PubMed

    Sassi, Federica; Campoy, Guillermo; Castillo, Alejandro; Inuggi, Alberto; Fuentes, Luis J

    2014-05-01

    In this study we used an affective priming task to address the issue of whether the processing of emotional facial expressions occurs automatically independent of attention or attentional resources. Participants had to attend to the emotion expression of the prime face, or to a nonemotional feature of the prime face, the glasses. When participants attended to glasses (emotion unattended), they had to report whether the face wore glasses or not (the glasses easy condition) or whether the glasses were rounded or squared (the shape difficult condition). Affective priming, measured on valence decisions on target words, was mainly defined as interference from incongruent rather than facilitation from congruent trials. Significant priming effects were observed just in the emotion and glasses tasks but not in the shape task. When the key-response mapping increased in complexity, taxing working memory load, affective priming effects were reduced equally for the three types of tasks. Thus, attentional load and working memory load affected additively to the observed reduction in affective priming. These results cast some doubts on the automaticity of processing emotional facial expressions.

  16. Food-cue affected motor response inhibition and self-reported dieting success: a pictorial affective shifting task.

    PubMed

    Meule, Adrian; Lutz, Annika P C; Krawietz, Vera; Stützer, Judith; Vögele, Claus; Kübler, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Behavioral inhibition is one of the basic facets of executive functioning and is closely related to self-regulation. Impulsive reactions, that is, low inhibitory control, have been associated with higher body mass index (BMI), binge eating, and other problem behaviors (e.g., substance abuse, pathological gambling, etc.). Nevertheless, studies which investigated the direct influence of food-cues on behavioral inhibition have been fairly inconsistent. In the current studies, we investigated food-cue affected behavioral inhibition in young women. For this purpose, we used a go/no-go task with pictorial food and neutral stimuli in which stimulus-response mapping is reversed after every other block (affective shifting task). In study 1, hungry participants showed faster reaction times to and omitted fewer food than neutral targets. Low dieting success and higher BMI were associated with behavioral disinhibition in food relative to neutral blocks. In study 2, both hungry and satiated individuals were investigated. Satiation did not influence overall task performance, but modulated associations of task performance with dieting success and self-reported impulsivity. When satiated, increased food craving during the task was associated with low dieting success, possibly indicating a preload-disinhibition effect following food intake. Food-cues elicited automatic action and approach tendencies regardless of dieting success, self-reported impulsivity, or current hunger levels. Yet, associations between dieting success, impulsivity, and behavioral food-cue responses were modulated by hunger and satiation. Future research investigating clinical samples and including other salient non-food stimuli as control category is warranted.

  17. Food-cue affected motor response inhibition and self-reported dieting success: a pictorial affective shifting task

    PubMed Central

    Meule, Adrian; Lutz, Annika P. C.; Krawietz, Vera; Stützer, Judith; Vögele, Claus; Kübler, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Behavioral inhibition is one of the basic facets of executive functioning and is closely related to self-regulation. Impulsive reactions, that is, low inhibitory control, have been associated with higher body mass index (BMI), binge eating, and other problem behaviors (e.g., substance abuse, pathological gambling, etc.). Nevertheless, studies which investigated the direct influence of food-cues on behavioral inhibition have been fairly inconsistent. In the current studies, we investigated food-cue affected behavioral inhibition in young women. For this purpose, we used a go/no-go task with pictorial food and neutral stimuli in which stimulus-response mapping is reversed after every other block (affective shifting task). In study 1, hungry participants showed faster reaction times to and omitted fewer food than neutral targets. Low dieting success and higher BMI were associated with behavioral disinhibition in food relative to neutral blocks. In study 2, both hungry and satiated individuals were investigated. Satiation did not influence overall task performance, but modulated associations of task performance with dieting success and self-reported impulsivity. When satiated, increased food craving during the task was associated with low dieting success, possibly indicating a preload-disinhibition effect following food intake. Food-cues elicited automatic action and approach tendencies regardless of dieting success, self-reported impulsivity, or current hunger levels. Yet, associations between dieting success, impulsivity, and behavioral food-cue responses were modulated by hunger and satiation. Future research investigating clinical samples and including other salient non-food stimuli as control category is warranted. PMID:24659978

  18. Distractions, distractions: does instant messaging affect college students' performance on a concurrent reading comprehension task?

    PubMed

    Fox, Annie Beth; Rosen, Jonathan; Crawford, Mary

    2009-02-01

    Instant messaging (IM) has become one of the most popular forms of computer-mediated communication (CMC) and is especially prevalent on college campuses. Previous research suggests that IM users often multitask while conversing online. To date, no one has yet examined the cognitive effect of concurrent IM use. Participants in the present study (N = 69) completed a reading comprehension task uninterrupted or while concurrently holding an IM conversation. Participants who IMed while performing the reading task took significantly longer to complete the task, indicating that concurrent IM use negatively affects efficiency. Concurrent IM use did not affect reading comprehension scores. Additional analyses revealed that the more time participants reported spending on IM, the lower their reading comprehension scores. Finally, we found that the more time participants reported spending on IM, the lower their self-reported GPA. Implications and future directions are discussed.

  19. How Cross-Language Similarity and Task Demands Affect Cognate Recognition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dijkstra, Ton; Miwa, Koji; Brummelhuis, Bianca; Sappelli, Maya; Baayen, Harald

    2010-01-01

    This study examines how the cross-linguistic similarity of translation equivalents affects bilingual word recognition. Performing one of three tasks, Dutch-English bilinguals processed cognates with varying degrees of form overlap between their English and Dutch counterparts (e.g., "lamp-lamp" vs. "flood-vloed" vs. "song-lied"). In lexical…

  20. Ventrolateral prefrontal cortex and the effects of task demand context on facial affect appraisal in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Leitman, David I; Wolf, Daniel H; Loughead, James; Valdez, Jeffrey N; Kohler, Christian G; Brensinger, Colleen; Elliott, Mark A; Turetsky, Bruce I; Gur, Raquel E; Gur, Ruben C

    2011-01-01

    Schizophrenia patients display impaired performance and brain activity during facial affect recognition. These impairments may reflect stimulus-driven perceptual decrements and evaluative processing abnormalities. We differentiated these two processes by contrasting responses to identical stimuli presented under different contexts. Seventeen healthy controls and 16 schizophrenia patients performed an fMRI facial affect detection task. Subjects identified an affective target presented amongst foils of differing emotions. We hypothesized that targeting affiliative emotions (happiness, sadness) would create a task demand context distinct from that generated when targeting threat emotions (anger, fear). We compared affiliative foil stimuli within a congruent affiliative context with identical stimuli presented in an incongruent threat context. Threat foils were analysed in the same manner. Controls activated right orbitofrontal cortex (OFC)/ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC) more to affiliative foils in threat contexts than to identical stimuli within affiliative contexts. Patients displayed reduced OFC/VLPFC activation to all foils, and no activation modulation by context. This lack of context modulation coincided with a 2-fold decrement in foil detection efficiency. Task demands produce contextual effects during facial affective processing in regions activated during affect evaluation. In schizophrenia, reduced modulation of OFC/VLPFC by context coupled with reduced behavioural efficiency suggests impaired ventral prefrontal control mechanisms that optimize affective appraisal.

  1. Transient emotional events and individual affective traits affect emotion recognition in a perceptual decision-making task

    PubMed Central

    Garcia Quesada, Maria; Antico, Lia; Bavelier, Daphne; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Pichon, Swann

    2017-01-01

    Both affective states and personality traits shape how we perceive the social world and interpret emotions. The literature on affective priming has mostly focused on brief influences of emotional stimuli and emotional states on perceptual and cognitive processes. Yet this approach does not fully capture more dynamic processes at the root of emotional states, with such states lingering beyond the duration of the inducing external stimuli. Our goal was to put in perspective three different types of affective states (induced affective states, more sustained mood states and affective traits such as depression and anxiety) and investigate how they may interact and influence emotion perception. Here, we hypothesized that absorption into positive and negative emotional episodes generate sustained affective states that outlast the episode period and bias the interpretation of facial expressions in a perceptual decision-making task. We also investigated how such effects are influenced by more sustained mood states and by individual affect traits (depression and anxiety) and whether they interact. Transient emotional states were induced using movie-clips, after which participants performed a forced-choice emotion classification task with morphed facial expressions ranging from fear to happiness. Using a psychometric approach, we show that negative (vs. neutral) clips increased participants’ propensity to classify ambiguous faces as fearful during several minutes. In contrast, positive movies biased classification toward happiness only for those clips perceived as most absorbing. Negative mood, anxiety and depression had a stronger effect than transient states and increased the propensity to classify ambiguous faces as fearful. These results provide the first evidence that absorption and different temporal dimensions of emotions have a significant effect on how we perceive facial expressions. PMID:28151976

  2. Colour-induced relationship between affect and reaching kinematics during a goal-directed aiming task.

    PubMed

    Williams, Camille K; Grierson, Lawrence E M; Carnahan, Heather

    2011-08-01

    A link between affect and action has been supported by the discovery that threat information is prioritized through an action-centred pathway--the dorsal visual stream. Magnocellular afferents, which originate from the retina and project to dorsal stream structures, are suppressed by exposure to diffuse red light, which diminishes humans' perception of threat-based images. In order to explore the role of colour in the relationship between affect and action, participants donned different pairs of coloured glasses (red, yellow, green, blue and clear) and completed Positive and Negative Affect Scale questionnaires as well as a series of target-directed aiming movements. Analyses of affect scores revealed a significant main effect for affect valence and a significant interaction between colour and valence: perceived positive affect was significantly smaller for the red condition. Kinematic analyses of variable error in the primary movement direction and Pearson correlation analyses between the displacements travelled prior to and following peak velocity indicated reduced accuracy and application of online control processes while wearing red glasses. Variable error of aiming was also positively and significantly correlated with negative affect scores under the red condition. These results suggest that only red light modulates the affect-action link by suppressing magnocellular activity, which disrupts visual processing for movement control. Furthermore, previous research examining the effect of the colour red on psychomotor tasks and perceptual acceleration of threat-based imagery suggest that stimulus-driven motor performance tasks requiring online control may be particularly susceptible to this effect.

  3. How Mood and Task Complexity Affect Children's Recognition of Others' Emotions.

    PubMed

    Cummings, Andrew J; Rennels, Jennifer L

    2014-02-01

    Previous studies examined how mood affects children's accuracy in matching emotional expressions and labels (label-based tasks). This study was the first to assess how induced mood (positive, neutral, or negative) influenced 5- to 8-year-olds' accuracy and reaction time using both context-based tasks, which required inferring a character's emotion from a vignette, and label-based tasks. Both tasks required choosing one of four facial expressions to respond. Children responded more accurately to label-based questions relative to context-based questions at 5 to 7 years of age, but showed no differences at 8 years of age, and when the emotional expression being identified was happiness, sadness, or surprise, but not disgust. For the context-based questions, children were more accurate at inferring sad and disgusted emotions compared to happy and surprised emotions. Induced positive mood facilitated 5-year-olds' processing (decreased reaction time) in both tasks compared to induced negative and neutral moods. Results demonstrate how task type and children's mood influence children's emotion processing at different ages.

  4. The Functional Effect of Teacher Positive and Neutral Affect on Task Performance of Students with Significant Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Sungho; Singer, George H. S.; Gibson, Mary

    2005-01-01

    The study uses an alternating treatment design to evaluate the functional effect of teacher's affect on students' task performance. Tradition in special education holds that teachers should engage students using positive and enthusiastic affect for task presentations and praise. To test this assumption, we compared two affective conditions. Three…

  5. Estimating How Inflated or Obscured Effects of Climate Affect Forecasted Species Distribution

    PubMed Central

    Real, Raimundo; Romero, David; Olivero, Jesús; Estrada, Alba; Márquez, Ana L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (ρ), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario. PMID:23349726

  6. Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution.

    PubMed

    Real, Raimundo; Romero, David; Olivero, Jesús; Estrada, Alba; Márquez, Ana L

    2013-01-01

    Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (ρ), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.

  7. Investigating the mechanisms underlying affective priming effects using a conditional pronunciation task.

    PubMed

    Pecchinenda, Anna; Ganteaume, Christiane; Banse, Rainer

    2006-01-01

    Recently, using a conditional pronunciation task, De Houwer and Randell (2004) reported evidence of affective priming effects only when pronunciation depended on the semantic category of targets. Although these findings support the notion that spreading of activation is the mechanism underlying affective priming effects, an explanation in terms of postlexical mechanism could not be ruled out. To clarify this point, we conducted two experiments in which nouns for both the to-be-pronounced as well as the not-to-be pronounced targets were used and all stimuli were affectively valenced words. In Experiment 1, the to-be-pronounced targets were object-words, and the not-to-be-pronounced targets were person-words, whereas in Experiment 2, the instructions were reversed. Results of experiment 1 showed affective priming effects only when pronunciation of target words was conditional upon their semantic category. Most importantly, affective priming effects were observed for both object-words (Experiment 1) and person-words (Experiment 2). These results are compatible with a spreading activation account, but not with a postlexical mechanism account of affective priming effects in the pronunciation task.

  8. Improved Anvil Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.

    2000-01-01

    This report describes the outcome of Phase 1 of the AMU's Improved Anvil Forecasting task. Forecasters in the 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group have found that anvil forecasting is a difficult task when predicting LCC and FR violations. The purpose of this task is to determine the technical feasibility of creating an anvil-forecasting tool. Work on this study was separated into three steps: literature search, forecaster discussions, and determination of technical feasibility. The literature search revealed no existing anvil-forecasting techniques. However, there appears to be growing interest in anvils in recent years. If this interest continues to grow, more information will be available to aid in developing a reliable anvil-forecasting tool. The forecaster discussion step revealed an array of methods on how better forecasting techniques could be developed. The forecasters have ideas based on sound meteorological principles and personal experience in forecasting and analyzing anvils. Based on the information gathered in the discussions with the forecasters, the conclusion of this report is that it is technically feasible at this time to develop an anvil forecasting technique that will significantly contribute to the confidence in anvil forecasts.

  9. On the replicability of the affective priming effect in the pronunciation task.

    PubMed

    Spruyt, Adriaan; Hermans, Dirk; Pandelaere, Mario; De Houwer, Jan; Eelen, Paul

    2004-01-01

    Bargh, Chaiken, Raymond, and Hymes (1996) and Hermans, De Houwer, and Eelen (1994) showed that a valenced target word is pronounced faster after the presentation of an affectively related prime word than after the presentation of an affectively unrelated prime word. This finding is important because it provides crucial evidence for the hypotheses that stimulus evaluation (a) is goal-independent and (b) facilitates the encoding of stimuli that have the same valence. However, recent studies indicate that the affective priming effect is not a reliable finding in the standard pronunciation task. We report the results of a nearly exact replication of Bargh et al.'s (1996) Experiment 2. In line with previous replication studies, we failed to detect the affective priming effect.

  10. Factors affecting numerical typing performance of young adults in a hear-and-type task.

    PubMed

    Lin, Cheng-Jhe; Wu, Changxu

    2011-12-01

    Numerical hear-and-type tasks, i.e. making immediate keypresses according to verbally presented numbers, possess both practical and theoretical importance but received relatively little attention. Effects of speech rates (500-ms vs. 1000-ms interval), urgency (urgent condition: performance-based monetary incentive plus time limit vs. non-urgent condition: flat-rate compensation) and finger strategies (single vs. multi-finger typing) on typing speed and accuracy were investigated. Fast speech rate and multi-finger typing produced more errors and slower typing speed. Urgency improved typing speed but decreased accuracy. Errors were almost doubled under urgent condition, while urgency effect on speed was similar to that of speech rate. Examination of error patterns did not fully support Salthouse's (1986) speculations about error-making mechanisms. The results implied that urgency could play a more important role in error-making than task demands. Numerical keyboard design and error detection could benefit from spatial incidence of errors found in this study. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: This study revealed that classic speculations about error-making mechanisms in alphabetical typing do not necessarily translate to numerical typing. Factors other than external task demands such as urgency can affect typing performance to a similar or greater extent. Investigations of intrinsic error-making factors in non-traditional typing tasks are encouraged.

  11. Influence of affective words on lexical decision task in major depression.

    PubMed Central

    Stip, E; Lecours, A R; Chertkow, H; Elie, R; O'Connor, K

    1994-01-01

    In cognitive science, lexical decision task is used to investigate visual word recognition and lexical access. The issue of whether or not individuals who are depressed differ in their access to affectively laden words and specifically to words that have negative affect was examined. Based on some aspects of the Resource Allocation Model (Ellis), it was postulated that patients suffering from depression take more time to recognize items from an affective-loaded list. In order to compare their behavior in a lexical decision task, patients suffering from depression and healthy controls were studied. We hoped to find an interaction between the mood state of subjects and the categories (affective or neutral) of words. Two groups of right-handed adults served as subjects in our experiment. The first group consisted of 11 patients suffering from depression (mean age: 40.2; sd: 6.8). All of this group met the DSM-III-R and the Research Diagnostic Criteria for major depressive disorder. Severity of their disease was rated using the 24-item Hamilton Depressive Rating Scale. All patients suffering from depression were without psychotropic medication. The control group was composed of 24 subjects (mean age: 32.7; sd: 7.9). A depressive word-list and a neutral word-list were built and a computer was used for the lexical-decision task. A longer reaction time to detect the non-word stimuli (F1,33 = 11.19, p < 0.01) was observed with the patients by comparison to the normal subjects. In the analysis of the word stimuli, a group by list interaction (F1,33 = 7.18, p < 0.01) was found.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:8031744

  12. Extraversion and reward-related processing: probing incentive motivation in affective priming tasks.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Michael D; Moeller, Sara K; Ode, Scott

    2010-10-01

    Based on an incentive motivation theory of extraversion (Depue & Collins, 1999), it was hypothesized that extraverts (relative to introverts) would exhibit stronger positive priming effects in affective priming tasks, whether involving words or pictures. This hypothesis was systematically supported in four studies involving 229 undergraduates. In each of the four studies, and in a subsequent combined analysis, extraversion was positively predictive of positive affective priming effects, but was not predictive of negative affective priming effects. The results bridge an important gap in the literature between biological and trait models of incentive motivation and do so in a way that should be informative to subsequent efforts to understand the processing basis of extraversion as well as incentive motivation.

  13. Affective and Deliberative Processes in Risky Choice: Age Differences in Risk Taking in the Columbia Card Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Figner, Bernd; Mackinlay, Rachael J.; Wilkening, Friedrich; Weber, Elke U.

    2009-01-01

    The authors investigated risk taking and underlying information use in 13- to 16- and 17- to 19-year-old adolescents and in adults in 4 experiments, using a novel dynamic risk-taking task, the Columbia Card Task (CCT). The authors investigated risk taking under differential involvement of affective versus deliberative processes with 2 versions of…

  14. How gender and task difficulty affect a sport-protective response in young adults

    PubMed Central

    Lipps, David B.; Eckner, James T.; Richardson, James K.; Ashton-Miller, James A.

    2013-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that gender and task difficulty affect the reaction, movement, and total response times associated with performing a head protective response. Twenty-four healthy young adults (13 females) performed a protective response of raising their hands from waist level to block a foam ball fired at their head from an air cannon. Participants initially stood 8.25 m away from the cannon (‘low difficulty’), and were moved successively closer in 60 cm increments until they failed to block at least 5 of 8 balls (‘high difficulty’). Limb motion was quantified using optoelectronic markers on the participants’ left wrist. Males had significantly faster total response times (p = 0.042), a trend towards faster movement times (p = 0.054), and faster peak wrist velocity (p < .001) and acceleration (p = 0.032) than females. Reaction time, movement time, and total response time were significantly faster under high difficulty conditions for both genders (p < .001). This study suggests that baseball and softball pitchers and fielders should have sufficient time to protect their head from a batted ball under optimal conditions if they are adequately prepared for the task. PMID:23234296

  15. Attachment and emotion regulation in middle childhood: changes in affect and vagal tone during a social stress task.

    PubMed

    Movahed Abtahi, Mahsa; Kerns, Kathryn A

    2017-06-01

    In middle childhood, more securely attached children show better emotion regulation when assessed as general tendencies (e.g. coping style), but studies looking at emotion in response to specific stressors have revealed mixed results. This study examined how attachment security, avoidance, and ambivalence - assessed with a story stem task (99 children, 9-11 years old) - relate to dynamic indices of affective and autonomic responses (baseline, reactivity, recovery). Reports of positive and negative affect, and high-frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV), were assessed during a social stressor task. Securely attached children did not show reactivity effects, although they did show greater recovery of positive affect after the task ended. Avoidant children showed both less reactivity and recovery of negative affect, suggesting a dampened emotional response. Ambivalent children showed more reactivity and more recovery of negative affect. Autonomic response changes were only evident for ambivalent children, who showed less suppression of HF-HRV variability under stress.

  16. Affectively Salient Meaning in Random Noise: A Task Sensitive to Psychosis Liability

    PubMed Central

    Galdos, Mariana; Simons, Claudia; Fernandez-Rivas, Aranzazu; Wichers, Marieke; Peralta, Concepción; Lataster, Tineke; Amer, Guillermo; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Allardyce, Judith; Gonzalez-Torres, Miguel Angel; van Os, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Stable differences in the tendency to attribute meaning and emotional value to experience may represent an indicator of liability to psychosis. A brief task was developed assessing variation in detecting affectively meaningful speech (speech illusion) in neutral random signals (white noise) and the degree to which this was associated with psychometric and familial vulnerability for psychosis. Thirty patients, 28 of their siblings, and 307 controls participated. The rate of speech illusion was compared between cases and controls. In controls, the association between speech illusion and interview-based positive schizotypy was assessed. The hypothesis of a dose-response increase in rate of speech illusion across increasing levels of familial vulnerability for psychosis (controls, siblings of patients, and patients) was examined. Patients were more likely to display speech illusions than controls (odds ratio [OR] = 4.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4–11.7), also after controlling for neurocognitive variables (OR = 3.8, 95% CI = 1.04–14.1). The case-control difference was more accentuated for speech illusion perceived as affectively salient (positively or negatively appraised) than for neutrally appraised speech illusions. Speech illusion in the controls was strongly associated with positive schizotypy but not with negative schizotypy. In addition, the rate of speech illusion increased with increasing level of familial risk for psychotic disorder. The data suggest that the white noise task may be sensitive to psychometric and familial vulnerability for psychosis associated with alterations in top-down processing and/or salience attribution. PMID:20360211

  17. Affective judgment and beneficial decision making: ventromedial prefrontal activity correlates with performance in the Iowa Gambling Task.

    PubMed

    Northoff, Georg; Grimm, Simone; Boeker, Heinz; Schmidt, Conny; Bermpohl, Felix; Heinzel, Alexander; Hell, Daniel; Boesiger, Peter

    2006-07-01

    Damasio proposes in his somatic marker theory that not only cognitive but also affective components are critical for decision making. Since affective judgment requires an interplay between affective and cognitive components, it might be considered a key process in decision making that has been linked to neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC). Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we examined the relationship between VMPFC, emotionally (unexpected)- and cognitively (expected)-accentuated affective judgment, and beneficial decision making (Iowa Gambling Task; IGT) in healthy subjects. Neuronal activity in the VMPFC during unexpected affective judgment significantly correlated with both global and final performance in the IGT task. These findings suggest that the degree to which subjects recruit the VMPFC during affective judgment is related to beneficial performance in decision making in gambling.

  18. Timing Is Affected by Demands in Memory Search but Not by Task Switching

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fortin, Claudette; Schweickert, Richard; Gaudreault, Remi; Viau-Quesnel, Charles

    2010-01-01

    Recent studies suggest that timing and tasks involving executive control processes might require the same attentional resources. This should lead to interference when timing and executive tasks are executed concurrently. This study examined the interference between timing and task switching, an executive function. In 4 experiments, memory search…

  19. Your brain on speed: cognitive performance of a spatial working memory task is not affected by walking speed

    PubMed Central

    Kline, Julia E.; Poggensee, Katherine; Ferris, Daniel P.

    2014-01-01

    When humans walk in everyday life, they typically perform a range of cognitive tasks while they are on the move. Past studies examining performance changes in dual cognitive-motor tasks during walking have produced a variety of results. These discrepancies may be related to the type of cognitive task chosen, differences in the walking speeds studied, or lack of controlling for walking speed. The goal of this study was to determine how young, healthy subjects performed a spatial working memory task over a range of walking speeds. We used high-density electroencephalography to determine if electrocortical activity mirrored changes in cognitive performance across speeds. Subjects stood (0.0 m/s) and walked (0.4, 0.8, 1.2, and 1.6 m/s) with and without performing a Brooks spatial working memory task. We hypothesized that performance of the spatial working memory task and the associated electrocortical activity would decrease significantly with walking speed. Across speeds, the spatial working memory task caused subjects to step more widely compared with walking without the task. This is typically a sign that humans are adapting their gait dynamics to increase gait stability. Several cortical areas exhibited power fluctuations time-locked to memory encoding during the cognitive task. In the somatosensory association cortex, alpha power increased prior to stimulus presentation and decreased during memory encoding. There were small significant reductions in theta power in the right superior parietal lobule and the posterior cingulate cortex around memory encoding. However, the subjects did not show a significant change in cognitive task performance or electrocortical activity with walking speed. These findings indicate that in young, healthy subjects walking speed does not affect performance of a spatial working memory task. These subjects can devote adequate cortical resources to spatial cognition when needed, regardless of walking speed. PMID:24847239

  20. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profiles on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Blakenship, Clay B.; Wick, Gary A.; Neiman, Paul J.

    2013-01-01

    This project is a collaborative activity between the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) to evaluate a SPoRT Advanced Infrared Sounding Radiometer (AIRS: Aumann et al. 2003) enhanced moisture analysis product. We test the impact of assimilating AIRS temperature and humidity profiles above clouds and in partly cloudy regions, using the three-dimensional variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) system (Developmental Testbed Center 2012) to produce a new analysis. Forecasts of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized from the new analysis are compared to control forecasts without the additional AIRS data. We focus on some cases where atmospheric rivers caused heavy precipitation on the US West Coast. We verify the forecasts by comparison with dropsondes and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) Blended Total Precipitable Water product.

  1. Information-Processing and Perceptions of Control: How Attribution Style Affects Task-Relevant Processing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yeigh, Tony

    2007-01-01

    This study investigated the effects of perceived controllability on information processing within Weiner's (1985, 1986) attributional model of learning. Attributional style was used to identify trait patterns of controllability for 37 university students. Task-relevant feedback on an information-processing task was then manipulated to test for…

  2. Cognitive tasks during expectation affect the congruency ERP effects to facial expressions

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Huiyan; Schulz, Claudia; Straube, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Expectancy congruency has been shown to modulate event-related potentials (ERPs) to emotional stimuli, such as facial expressions. However, it is unknown whether the congruency ERP effects to facial expressions can be modulated by cognitive manipulations during stimulus expectation. To this end, electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded while participants viewed (neutral and fearful) facial expressions. Each trial started with a cue, predicting a facial expression, followed by an expectancy interval without any cues and subsequently the face. In half of the trials, participants had to solve a cognitive task in which different letters were presented for target letter detection during the expectancy interval. Furthermore, facial expressions were congruent with the cues in 75% of all trials. ERP results revealed that for fearful faces, the cognitive task during expectation altered the congruency effect in N170 amplitude; congruent compared to incongruent fearful faces evoked larger N170 in the non-task condition but the congruency effect was not evident in the task condition. Regardless of facial expression, the congruency effect was generally altered by the cognitive task during expectation in P3 amplitude; the amplitudes were larger for incongruent compared to congruent faces in the non-task condition but the congruency effect was not shown in the task condition. The findings indicate that cognitive tasks during expectation reduce the processing of expectation and subsequently, alter congruency ERP effects to facial expressions. PMID:26578938

  3. Cognitive tasks during expectation affect the congruency ERP effects to facial expressions.

    PubMed

    Lin, Huiyan; Schulz, Claudia; Straube, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Expectancy congruency has been shown to modulate event-related potentials (ERPs) to emotional stimuli, such as facial expressions. However, it is unknown whether the congruency ERP effects to facial expressions can be modulated by cognitive manipulations during stimulus expectation. To this end, electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded while participants viewed (neutral and fearful) facial expressions. Each trial started with a cue, predicting a facial expression, followed by an expectancy interval without any cues and subsequently the face. In half of the trials, participants had to solve a cognitive task in which different letters were presented for target letter detection during the expectancy interval. Furthermore, facial expressions were congruent with the cues in 75% of all trials. ERP results revealed that for fearful faces, the cognitive task during expectation altered the congruency effect in N170 amplitude; congruent compared to incongruent fearful faces evoked larger N170 in the non-task condition but the congruency effect was not evident in the task condition. Regardless of facial expression, the congruency effect was generally altered by the cognitive task during expectation in P3 amplitude; the amplitudes were larger for incongruent compared to congruent faces in the non-task condition but the congruency effect was not shown in the task condition. The findings indicate that cognitive tasks during expectation reduce the processing of expectation and subsequently, alter congruency ERP effects to facial expressions.

  4. Thinking about the Weather: How Display Salience and Knowledge Affect Performance in a Graphic Inference Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hegarty, Mary; Canham, Matt S.; Fabrikant, Sara I.

    2010-01-01

    Three experiments examined how bottom-up and top-down processes interact when people view and make inferences from complex visual displays (weather maps). Bottom-up effects of display design were investigated by manipulating the relative visual salience of task-relevant and task-irrelevant information across different maps. Top-down effects of…

  5. Corporate Forecasting: Promise and Reality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wheelwright, Steven C.; Clarke, Darral G.

    1976-01-01

    Discusses a survey of forecast preparers and users in 127 major companies in an attempt to assess underlying problems and identify areas for improvement. Concludes that forecasting responsibilities and tasks must be better defined and that forecast preparers and users must become better informed about one another's roles. (Author/JG)

  6. Forecasting forecast skill

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

  7. Spontaneous emotion regulation during evaluated speaking tasks: associations with negative affect, anxiety expression, memory, and physiological responding.

    PubMed

    Egloff, Boris; Schmukle, Stefan C; Burns, Lawrence R; Schwerdtfeger, Andreas

    2006-08-01

    In these studies, the correlates of spontaneously using expressive suppression and cognitive reappraisal during stressful speeches were examined. Spontaneous emotion regulation means that there were no instructions of how to regulate emotions during the speech. Instead, participants indicated after the speech to what extent they used self-motivated expressive suppression or reappraisal during the task. The results show that suppression is associated with less anxiety expression, greater physiological responding, and less memory for the speech while having no impact on negative affect. In contrast, reappraisal has no impact on physiology and memory while leading to less expression and affect. Taken together, spontaneous emotion regulation in active coping tasks has similar consequences as experimentally induced emotion regulation in passive tasks.

  8. Housing conditions affect rat responses to two types of ambiguity in a reward–reward discrimination cognitive bias task

    PubMed Central

    Parker, Richard M.A.; Paul, Elizabeth S.; Burman, Oliver H.P.; Browne, William J.; Mendl, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Decision-making under ambiguity in cognitive bias tasks is a promising new indicator of affective valence in animals. Rat studies support the hypothesis that animals in a negative affective state evaluate ambiguous cues negatively. Prior automated operant go/go judgement bias tasks have involved training rats that an auditory cue of one frequency predicts a Reward and a cue of a different frequency predicts a Punisher (RP task), and then measuring whether ambiguous cues of intermediate frequency are judged as predicting reward (‘optimism’) or punishment (‘pessimism’). We investigated whether an automated Reward–Reward (RR) task yielded similar results to, and was faster to train than, RP tasks. We also introduced a new ambiguity test (simultaneous presentation of the two training cues) alongside the standard single ambiguous cue test. Half of the rats experienced an unpredictable housing treatment (UHT) designed to induce a negative state. Control rats were relatively ‘pessimistic’, whilst UHT rats were quicker, but no less accurate, in their responses in the RR test, and showed less anxiety-like behaviour in independent tests. A possible reason for these findings is that rats adapted to and were stimulated by UHT, whilst control rats in a predictable environment were more sensitive to novelty and change. Responses in the new ambiguity test correlated positively with those in single ambiguous cue tests, and may provide a measure of attention bias. The RR task was quicker to train than previous automated RP tasks. Together, they could be used to disentangle how reward and punishment processes underpin affect-induced cognitive biases. PMID:25106739

  9. Housing conditions affect rat responses to two types of ambiguity in a reward-reward discrimination cognitive bias task.

    PubMed

    Parker, Richard M A; Paul, Elizabeth S; Burman, Oliver H P; Browne, William J; Mendl, Michael

    2014-11-01

    Decision-making under ambiguity in cognitive bias tasks is a promising new indicator of affective valence in animals. Rat studies support the hypothesis that animals in a negative affective state evaluate ambiguous cues negatively. Prior automated operant go/go judgement bias tasks have involved training rats that an auditory cue of one frequency predicts a Reward and a cue of a different frequency predicts a Punisher (RP task), and then measuring whether ambiguous cues of intermediate frequency are judged as predicting reward ('optimism') or punishment ('pessimism'). We investigated whether an automated Reward-Reward (RR) task yielded similar results to, and was faster to train than, RP tasks. We also introduced a new ambiguity test (simultaneous presentation of the two training cues) alongside the standard single ambiguous cue test. Half of the rats experienced an unpredictable housing treatment (UHT) designed to induce a negative state. Control rats were relatively 'pessimistic', whilst UHT rats were quicker, but no less accurate, in their responses in the RR test, and showed less anxiety-like behaviour in independent tests. A possible reason for these findings is that rats adapted to and were stimulated by UHT, whilst control rats in a predictable environment were more sensitive to novelty and change. Responses in the new ambiguity test correlated positively with those in single ambiguous cue tests, and may provide a measure of attention bias. The RR task was quicker to train than previous automated RP tasks. Together, they could be used to disentangle how reward and punishment processes underpin affect-induced cognitive biases.

  10. Task difficulty affects the predictive process indexed by visual mismatch negativity.

    PubMed

    Kimura, Motohiro; Takeda, Yuji

    2013-01-01

    Visual mismatch negativity (MMN) is an event-related brain potential (ERP) component that is elicited by prediction-incongruent events in successive visual stimulation. Previous oddball studies have shown that visual MMN in response to task-irrelevant deviant stimuli is insensitive to the manipulation of task difficulty, which supports the notion that visual MMN reflects attention-independent predictive processes. In these studies, however, visual MMN was evaluated in deviant-minus-standard difference waves, which may lead to an underestimation of the effects of task difficulty due to the possible superposition of N1-difference reflecting refractory effects. In the present study, we investigated the effects of task difficulty on visual MMN, less contaminated by N1-difference. While the participant performed a size-change detection task regarding a continuously-presented central fixation circle, we presented oddball sequences consisting of deviant and standard bar stimuli with different orientations (9.1 and 90.9%) and equiprobable sequences consisting of 11 types of control bar stimuli with different orientations (9.1% each) at the surrounding visual fields. Task difficulty was manipulated by varying the magnitude of the size-change. We found that the peak latencies of visual MMN evaluated in the deviant-minus-control difference waves were delayed as a function of task difficulty. Therefore, in contrast to the previous understanding, the present findings support the notion that visual MMN is associated with attention-demanding predictive processes.

  11. Incidental sequence learning in a motion coherence discrimination task: How response learning affects perception.

    PubMed

    Laubrock, Jochen; Kinder, Annette

    2014-10-01

    The serial reaction time task (SRTT) is a standard task used to investigate incidental sequence learning. Whereas incidental learning of motor sequences is well-established, few and disputed results support learning of perceptual sequences. Here we adapt a motion coherence discrimination task (Newsome & Paré, 1988) to the sequence learning paradigm. The new task has 2 advantages: (a) the stimulus is presented at fixation, thereby obviating overt eye movements, and (b) by varying coherence a perceptual threshold measure is available in addition to the performance measure of RT. Results from 3 experiments show that action relevance of the sequence is necessary for sequence learning to occur, that the amount of sequence knowledge varies with the ease of encoding the motor sequence, and that sequence knowledge, once acquired, has the ability to modify perceptual thresholds.

  12. Strategies employed by upper secondary students for overcoming or exploiting conditions affecting accessibility of applications tasks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stillman, Gloria

    2004-02-01

    A cognitive/metacognitive framework is presented for analysing applications tasks and responses to these. Conditions facilitating or impeding access to such tasks at the upper secondary level were identified using qualitative data analysis techniques within this framework. Strategies employed in exploiting, or overcoming these conditions were identified. A well-developed repertoire of cognitive and metacognitive strategies together with a rich store of mathematical knowledge, real-world knowledge and experiences, and comprehension skills facilitated access. This was enhanced by metacognitive knowledge encouraging student engagement with the task and by students imagining they were in the task situation. Once moderate skill had been achieved in accessing these applications, coordination and integration of multiple representations, further cues, and mathematical processes and procedures became critical.

  13. Self-Reported Stickiness of Mind-Wandering Affects Task Performance

    PubMed Central

    van Vugt, Marieke K.; Broers, Nico

    2016-01-01

    When asked to perform a certain task, we typically spend a decent amount of time thinking thoughts unrelated to that task–a phenomenon referred to as “mind-wandering.” It is thought that this mind-wandering is driven at least in part by our unfinished goals and concerns. Previous studies have shown that just after presenting a participant with their own concerns, their reports of task-unrelated thinking increased somewhat. However, effects of these concerns on task performance were somewhat inconsistent. In this study we take the opposite approach, and examine whether task performance depends on the self-reported thought content. Specifically, a particularly intriguing aspect of mind-wandering that has hitherto received little attention is the difficulty of disengaging from it, in other words, the “stickiness” of the thoughts. While presenting participants with their own concerns was not associated with clear effects on task performance, we showed that the reports of off-task thinking and variability of response times increased with the amount of self-reported stickiness of thoughts. This suggests that the stickiness of mind-wandering is a relevant variable, and participants are able to meaningfully report on it. PMID:27242636

  14. Thinking about the weather: How display salience and knowledge affect performance in a graphic inference task.

    PubMed

    Hegarty, Mary; Canham, Matt S; Fabrikant, Sara I

    2010-01-01

    Three experiments examined how bottom-up and top-down processes interact when people view and make inferences from complex visual displays (weather maps). Bottom-up effects of display design were investigated by manipulating the relative visual salience of task-relevant and task-irrelevant information across different maps. Top-down effects of domain knowledge were investigated by examining performance and eye fixations before and after participants learned relevant meteorological principles. Map design and knowledge interacted such that salience had no effect on performance before participants learned the meteorological principles; however, after learning, participants were more accurate if they viewed maps that made task-relevant information more visually salient. Effects of display design on task performance were somewhat dissociated from effects of display design on eye fixations. The results support a model in which eye fixations are directed primarily by top-down factors (task and domain knowledge). They suggest that good display design facilitates performance not just by guiding where viewers look in a complex display but also by facilitating processing of the visual features that represent task-relevant information at a given display location. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. How does a lower predictability of lane changes affect performance in the Lane Change Task?

    PubMed

    Petzoldt, Tibor; Krems, Josef F

    2014-07-01

    The Lane Change Task (LCT) is an established method to assess driver distraction caused by secondary tasks. In the LCT ISO standard, "course following and maneuvering" and "event detection" are mentioned as central task properties. Especially event detection seems to be a reasonable feature, as research suggests that distraction has profound effects on drivers' reactions to sudden, unexpected events. However, closer inspection of the LCT reveals that the events to be detected (lane change signs) and the required response are highly predictable. To investigate how the LCT's distraction assessment of secondary tasks might change if lane change events and responses were less predictable, we implemented three different versions of the LCT - an "original" one, a second one with lowered predictability of event position, and a third one with lowered predictability of event position and response. We tested each of these implementations with the same set of visual and cognitive secondary tasks of varying demand. The results showed that a decrease in predictability resulted in overall degraded performance in the LCT when using the basic lane change model for analysis. However, all secondary task conditions suffered equally. No differential effects were found. We conclude that although an ISO conforming implementation of the LCT might not be excessively valid regarding its depiction of safety relevant events, the results obtained are nevertheless comparable to what would be found in settings of higher validity.

  16. ERP measures of math anxiety: how math anxiety affects working memory and mental calculation tasks?

    PubMed Central

    Klados, Manousos A.; Simos, Panagiotis; Micheloyannis, Sifis; Margulies, Daniel; Bamidis, Panagiotis D.

    2015-01-01

    There have been several attempts to account for the impact of Mathematical Anxiety (MA) on brain activity with variable results. The present study examines the effects of MA on ERP amplitude during performance of simple arithmetic calculations and working memory tasks. Data were obtained from 32 university students as they solved four types of arithmetic problems (one- and two-digit addition and multiplication) and a working memory task comprised of three levels of difficulty (1, 2, and 3-back task). Compared to the Low-MA group, High-MA individuals demonstrated reduced ERP amplitude at frontocentral (between 180–320 ms) and centroparietal locations (between 380–420 ms). These effects were independent of task difficulty/complexity, individual performance, and general state/trait anxiety levels. Results support the hypothesis that higher levels of self-reported MA are associated with lower cortical activation during the early stages of the processing of numeric stimuli in the context of cognitive tasks. PMID:26578912

  17. Force time-history affects fatigue accumulation during repetitive handgrip tasks.

    PubMed

    Sonne, Michael W; Hodder, Joanne N; Wells, Ryan; Potvin, Jim R

    2015-02-01

    Muscle fatigue is associated with a higher risk of workplace injury, in particular during repetitive tasks. This study aimed to identify the effect of a complex force-time history (a task with multiple different submaximal effort levels) on fatigue accumulation and recovery during a handgrip task. We measured surface electromyography of the brachioradialis (BRD) and flexor carpi ulnaris (FCU) of ten right hand dominant females with no history of upper limb injury while they performed a complex submaximal visually targeted gripping task. The task consisted of 15%, 30%, 45%, 30%, and 15% maximum voluntary contraction (MVC) plateaus. Each plateau was held for 15s, followed by a 3s MVC and 3s of rest. The "pyramid" was repeated until fatigue criteria were met. Grip force, average EMG and mean power frequency (MnPF) for first cycle and fatigued last cycle, were compared. Post-plateau peak grip force was on average 20.5% MVC lower during the last cycle (p<0.01). Post-plateau grip forces decreased on average by 5.1% MVC after the first 15% MVC plateau (from baseline), by 5.3% MVC after the 30% MVC plateau and 6.8% MVC after the 45% MVC plateau. Further accumulation of fatigue after the second 30% MVC plateau however was minimal, only decreasing by 1.6% MVC. Recovery appeared to occur during the last 15% MVC plateau with an increase in post plateau grip force of 1.6% MVC. Interestingly, MnPF parameters confirmed significant fatigue accumulation during the back end of a force pyramid. We conclude that in a pattern of contractions with ascending, then descending force intensity, voluntary force recovery was present when the preceding force was of a lower intensity. These findings indicate preceding demands play a role in fatigue accumulation during complex tasks.

  18. TRAVEL FORECASTER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mauldin, L. E.

    1994-01-01

    Business travel planning within an organization is often a time-consuming task. Travel Forecaster is a menu-driven, easy-to-use program which plans, forecasts cost, and tracks actual vs. planned cost for business-related travel of a division or branch of an organization and compiles this information into a database to aid the travel planner. The program's ability to handle multiple trip entries makes it a valuable time-saving device. Travel Forecaster takes full advantage of relational data base properties so that information that remains constant, such as per diem rates and airline fares (which are unique for each city), needs entering only once. A typical entry would include selection with the mouse of the traveler's name and destination city from pop-up lists, and typed entries for number of travel days and purpose of the trip. Multiple persons can be selected from the pop-up lists and multiple trips are accommodated by entering the number of days by each appropriate month on the entry form. An estimated travel cost is not required of the user as it is calculated by a Fourth Dimension formula. With this information, the program can produce output of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for either organization or sub-entity of an organization; or produce outputs of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for international-only travel. It will also provide monthly and cumulative formats of planned vs. actual outputs in data or graph form. Travel Forecaster users can do custom queries to search and sort information in the database, and it can create custom reports with the user-friendly report generator. Travel Forecaster 1.1 is a database program for use with Fourth Dimension Runtime 2.1.1. It requires a Macintosh Plus running System 6.0.3 or later, 2Mb of RAM and a hard disk. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. Travel Forecaster was developed in 1991. Macintosh is a registered trademark of

  19. Task- and resting-state functional connectivity of brain regions related to affection and susceptible to concurrent cognitive demand

    PubMed Central

    Kellermann, Tanja S.; Caspers, Svenja; Fox, Peter T.; Zilles, Karl; Roski, Christian; Laird, Angela R.; Turetsky, Bruce I.; Eickhoff, Simon B.

    2016-01-01

    A recent fMRI-study revealed neural responses for affective processing of stimuli for which overt attention irrespective of stimulus valence was required in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and bilateral amygdala (AMY): activation decreased with increasing cognitive demand. To further characterize the network putatively related to this attenuation, we here characterized these regions with respect to their functional properties and connectivity patterns in task-dependent and task-independent states. All experiments of the BrainMap database activating the seed regions OFC and bilateral AMY were identified. Their functional characteristics were quantitatively inferred using the behavioral meta-data of the retrieved experiments. Task-dependent functional connectivity was characterized by meta-analytic connectivity modeling (MACM) of significant co-activations with these seed regions. Task-independent resting-state functional connectivity analysis in a sample of 100 healthy subjects complemented these analyses. All three seed regions co-activated with subgenual cingulum (SGC), precuneus (PCu) and nucleus accumbens (NAcc) in the task-dependent MACM analysis. Task-independent resting-state connectivity revealed significant coupling of the seeds only with the SGC, but not the PCu and the NAcc. The former region (SGC) moreover was shown to feature significant resting-state connectivity with all other regions implicated in the network connected to regions where emotional processing may be modulated by a cognitive distractor. Based on its functional profile and connectivity pattern, we suggest that the SGC might serve as a key hub in the identified network, as such linking autobiographic information [PCu], reward [NAcc], (reinforce) values [OFC] and emotional significance [AMY]. Such a role, in turn, may allow the SGC to influence the OFC and AMY to modulate affective processing. PMID:23370055

  20. Short-term visual deprivation reduces interference effects of task-irrelevant facial expressions on affective prosody judgments

    PubMed Central

    Fengler, Ineke; Nava, Elena; Röder, Brigitte

    2015-01-01

    Several studies have suggested that neuroplasticity can be triggered by short-term visual deprivation in healthy adults. Specifically, these studies have provided evidence that visual deprivation reversibly affects basic perceptual abilities. The present study investigated the long-lasting effects of short-term visual deprivation on emotion perception. To this aim, we visually deprived a group of young healthy adults, age-matched with a group of non-deprived controls, for 3 h and tested them before and after visual deprivation (i.e., after 8 h on average and at 4 week follow-up) on an audio–visual (i.e., faces and voices) emotion discrimination task. To observe changes at the level of basic perceptual skills, we additionally employed a simple audio–visual (i.e., tone bursts and light flashes) discrimination task and two unimodal (one auditory and one visual) perceptual threshold measures. During the 3 h period, both groups performed a series of auditory tasks. To exclude the possibility that changes in emotion discrimination may emerge as a consequence of the exposure to auditory stimulation during the 3 h stay in the dark, we visually deprived an additional group of age-matched participants who concurrently performed unrelated (i.e., tactile) tasks to the later tested abilities. The two visually deprived groups showed enhanced affective prosodic discrimination abilities in the context of incongruent facial expressions following the period of visual deprivation; this effect was partially maintained until follow-up. By contrast, no changes were observed in affective facial expression discrimination and in the basic perception tasks in any group. These findings suggest that short-term visual deprivation per se triggers a reweighting of visual and auditory emotional cues, which seems to possibly prevail for longer durations. PMID:25954166

  1. How Stimulus and Task Complexity Affect Monitoring in High-Functioning Adults with Autism Spectrum Disorder

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koolen, Sophieke; Vissers, Constance Th. W. M.; Egger, Jos I. M.; Verhoeven, Ludo

    2014-01-01

    The present study examined whether individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are able to update and monitor working memory representations of visual input, and whether performance is influenced by stimulus and task complexity. 15 high-functioning adults with ASD and 15 controls were asked to allocate either elements of abstract figures or…

  2. Abacus Training Affects Math and Task Switching Abilities and Modulates Their Relationships in Chinese Children.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chunjie; Geng, Fengji; Yao, Yuan; Weng, Jian; Hu, Yuzheng; Chen, Feiyan

    2015-01-01

    Our previous work demonstrated that abacus-based mental calculation (AMC), a traditional Chinese calculation method, could help children improve their math abilities (e.g. basic arithmetical ability) and executive function (e.g. working memory). This study further examined the effects of long-term AMC training on math ability in visual-spatial domain and the task switching component of executive function. More importantly, this study investigated whether AMC training modulated the relationship between math abilities and task switching. The participants were seventy 7-year-old children who were randomly assigned into AMC and control groups at primary school entry. Children in AMC group received 2-hour AMC training every week since primary school entry. On the contrary, children in the control group had never received any AMC training. Math and task switching abilities were measured one year and three years respectively after AMC training began. The results showed that AMC children performed better than their peers on math abilities in arithmetical and visual-spatial domains. In addition, AMC group responded faster than control group in the switching task, while no group difference was found in switch cost. Most interestingly, group difference was present in the relationships between math abilities and switch cost. These results implied the effect of AMC training on math abilities as well as its relationship with executive function.

  3. The Beneficial Effects of Additional Task Load, Positive Affect, and Instruction on the Attentional Blink

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olivers, Christian N. L.; Nieuwenhuis, Sander

    2006-01-01

    The attentional blink reflects the impaired ability to identify the 2nd of 2 targets presented in close succession--a phenomenon that is generally thought to reflect a fundamental cognitive limitation. However, the fundamental nature of this impairment has recently been called into question by the counterintuitive finding that task-irrelevant…

  4. VARIABLES AFFECTING THE PERFORMANCE OF YOUNG CHILDREN ON A LETTER DISCRIMINATION TASK.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    HALL, VERNON C.; AND OTHERS

    THE PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY WAS TO DETERMINE THE RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF FIVE VARIABLES (INITIAL INSTRUCTIONS, REWARD, LETTER SIZE, TYPE OF WARM-UP, AND FEEDBACK) ON KINDERGARTEN CHILDREN'S PERFORMANCE OF A LETTER DISCRIMINATION TASK. IT HAS BEEN ARGUED THAT ATTENTION IS THE KEY FACTOR IN LETTER DISCRIMINATION. THE PRESENT STUDY PROPOSES THAT A…

  5. Gender and Prior Science Achievement Affect Categorization on a Procedural Learning Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hong, Jon-Chao; Lu, Chow-Chin; Wang, Jen-Lian; Liao, Shin; Wu, Ming-Ray; Hwang, Ming-Yueh; Lin, Pei-Hsin

    2013-01-01

    Categorization is one of the main mental processes by which perception and conception develop. Nevertheless, categorization receives little attention with the development of critical thinking in Taiwan elementary schools. Thus, the present study investigates the effect that individual differences have on performing categorization tasks.…

  6. Manipulations of Start and Food Locations Affect Navigation on a Foraging Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martin, Gerard M.; Pirzada, Ashar; Bridger, Alexander; Tomlin, Julian; Thorpe, Christina M.; Skinner, Darlene M.

    2011-01-01

    Rats were able to search multiple food cups in a foraging task and successfully return to a fixed, but not a variable, start location. Reducing the number of food cups to be searched resulted in an improvement in performance in the variable start condition. Performance was better when only one or two food cups had to be visited but was still…

  7. Ambient temperature affects glabrous skin vasculature and sweating responses to mental task in humans.

    PubMed

    Hayashi, Naoyuki; Someya, Nami; Hirooka, Yoshitaka; Koga, Shunsaku

    2008-09-01

    We compared responses in heart rate (HR), mean blood pressure (MAP), sweating rate (SR), sweating expulsion (SwE), and skin vascular conductance (VC) to mental task among different ambient temperature (Ta) conditions, i.e., 12, 16, 20, and 24 degrees C. Seven subjects (27+/-5 yrs, 64+/-14 kg) underwent a 2-min color word conflict test (CWT) after 2 mins of baseline data acquisition following a 20-min resting period. All subjects wore long sleeve shirts and long pants. The skin blood flow was measured with a laser Doppler probe on the left index finger pulp to calculate skin VC, and the SR and sweating expulsion (SwE) were measured with a ventilated capsule on the left thenar. CWT significantly increased the HR and MAP, while there was no significant effect of Ta on the magnitudes of these responses. CWT significantly decreased the skin VC when the Ta was 24 degrees C, whereas it significantly increased the skin VC when the Ta was 12 or 16 degrees C. CWT significantly increased SR and SwE in all Ta conditions, and the SwE was greater in warmer conditions. These findings suggest that different ambient temperatures induce different responses in finger skin vasculature to mental task, implying the independent response of cutaneous vasomotor tone and sweat glands in glabrous skin to mental task.

  8. Motion coordination affects movement parameters in a joint pick-and-place task.

    PubMed

    Vesper, Cordula; Soutschek, Alexander; Schubo, Anna

    2009-12-01

    This study examined influences of social context on movement parameters in a pick-and-place task. Participants' motion trajectories were recorded while they performed sequences of natural movements either working side-by-side with a partner or alone. It was expected that movement parameters would be specifically adapted to the joint condition to overcome the difficulties arising from the requirement to coordinate with another person. To disentangle effects based on participants' effort to coordinate their movements from effects merely due to the other's presence, a condition was included where only one person performed the task while being observed by the partner. Results indicate that participants adapted their movements temporally and spatially to the joint action situation: Overall movement duration was shorter, and mean and maximum velocity was higher when actually working together than when working alone. Pick-to-place trajectories were also shifted away from the partner in spatial coordinates. The partner's presence as such did not have an impact on movement parameters. These findings are interpreted as evidence for the use of implicit strategies to facilitate movement coordination in joint action tasks.

  9. Task-partitioning in insect societies: Non-random direct material transfers affect both colony efficiency and information flow.

    PubMed

    Grüter, Christoph; Schürch, Roger; Farina, Walter M

    2013-06-21

    Task-partitioning is an important organisational principle in insect colonies and is thought to increase colony efficiency. In task-partitioning, tasks such as the collection of resources are divided into subtasks in which the material is passed from one worker to another. Previous models have assumed that worker-worker interactions are random, but experimental evidence suggests that receivers can have preferences to handle familiar materials. We used an agent-based simulation model to explore how non-random interactions during task-partitioning with direct transfer affect colony work efficiency. Because task-partitioning also allows receivers and donors to acquire foraging related information we analysed the effect of non-random interactions on informative interaction patterns. When receivers non-randomly rejected donors offering certain materials, donors overall experienced increased time delays, hive stay durations and a decreased number of transfer partners. However, the number of transfers was slightly increased, which can improve the acquisition and quality of information for donors. When receivers were non-randomly attracted to donors offering certain materials, donors experienced reduced transfer delays, hive stay durations and an increased number of simultaneous receivers. The number of transfers is slightly decreased. The effects of the two mechanisms "non-random rejection" and "non-random attraction" are biggest if the number of foragers and receivers is balanced. In summary, our results show that colony ergonomics are improved if receivers do not reject donors and if mechanisms exist that help receivers detect potential donors, such as learning the odour of the transferred food. Finally, our simulations suggest that non-random interactions can potentially affect the foraging patterns of colonies in changing environments.

  10. An Investigation of Factors Affecting Multi-Task Performance in an Immersive Environment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-12-01

    regarding age, gender , vision and hearing, military service, and computer experience. 3.2.4 Multiple Affect Adjective Checklist - Revised (MAACL-R...Depression, Hostility, Positive Affect, and Sensation Seeking) derived from a one-page list of 132 adjectives. An overall distress score, Dysphoria ...involving personality correlates because it provides maximal specificity at no loss in reproducibility across gender and populations (Zuckerman, Kuhlman

  11. Group membership affects spontaneous mental representation: failure to represent the out-group in a joint action task.

    PubMed

    McClung, Jennifer Susan; Jentzsch, Ines; Reicher, Stephen David

    2013-01-01

    Predicting others' actions is crucial to successful social interaction. Previous research on joint action, based on a reaction-time paradigm called the Joint Simon Task, suggests that successful joint action stems from the simultaneous representation of the self with the other. Performance on this task provides a read-out of the degree of intrusion from a partner that participants experience from acting jointly compared to acting alone, which in turn is a measure of the degree to which participants mentally represent their co-actors during the task. To investigate the role of perceived group membership in this type of joint action and its influence on the representation of others, we first subjected participants to a minimal group paradigm while manipulating differences in social competition. We then asked participants to do the Joint Simon Task in pairs with an in-group or out-group member. Only participants who acted with an "in-group" partner on the joint task showed altered reaction times compared to when acting alone, presumably a change caused by the simultaneous and automatic representation of their in-group partner. In contrast, participants who acted with an out-group partner were unaffected in their reactions when doing the joint task, showing no evidence of representation of their out-group partner. This effect was present in both the high-competition and low-competition conditions, indicating that the differential effects of group membership on representation during joint action were driven by perceived group membership and independent of the effects of social competition. We concluded that participants failed to represent out-group members as socially relevant agents not based on any personality or situational characteristics, but in reaction only to their status as "other". In this way group membership appears to affect cognition on a very immediate and subconscious level.

  12. Categorization Method Affects the Typicality Effect: ERP Evidence from a Category-Inference Task

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiaoxi; Tao, Yun; Tempel, Tobias; Xu, Yuan; Li, Siqi; Tian, Yu; Li, Hong

    2016-01-01

    The typicality effect during categorization describes a phenomenon whereby typical items are more easily judged as members of a category than atypical items. Prior studies of the typicality effect have often used an inclusion task, which asks participants to assess whether an item belongs to a category. However, the correct exclusion of non-members is also an important component of effective categorization, which has yet to be directly investigated. Thus, the present study investigated how categorization method (inclusion vs. exclusion) modulates the typicality effect via behavioral and electrophysiological measures. Thirty-two participants (16 in the inclusion and 16 in the exclusion group) were shown six consecutive words that all shared one feature. Then, a seventh word was presented. The inclusion group judged whether the seventh word also possessed the feature, whereas the exclusion group judged whether the word did not possess the feature. The seventh word could be typical, atypical, or a nonmember of the category. Behavioral and event-related potential (ERP) data were collected. Behavioral results showed that the two groups did not differ in accuracy. However, typical items elicited shorter response times than atypical items, and this effect was more pronounced in the inclusion than the exclusion group. With regard to ERPs, interactions between item type and group were shown for the P2, N2, and N400 periods. Within the inclusion group, a typicality effect (indicated by a main effect of item type) was present in the P2 and N400 time windows, while the exclusion group elicited a typicality effect only in the N2 time window. These results provide electrophysiological evidence that an inclusion judgment task is more sensitive to category typicality than is an exclusion task. PMID:26925011

  13. Suppressing memories of words and familiar objects results in their affective devaluation: Evidence from Think/No-think tasks.

    PubMed

    De Vito, David; Fenske, Mark J

    2017-02-07

    Potentially distracting or otherwise-inappropriate stimuli, thoughts, or actions often must be inhibited to prevent interference with goal-directed behaviour. Growing evidence suggests that the impact of inhibition is not limited to reduced neurocognitive processing, but also includes negative affective consequences for any associated stimuli. The link between inhibition and aversive response has primarily been studied using tasks involving attentional- or response-related inhibition of external sensory stimuli. Here we show that affective devaluation also occurs when inhibition is applied to fully-encoded stimulus representations in memory. We first replicated prior findings of increased forgetting of words whose memories were suppressed in a Think/No-think procedure (Experiment 1). Incorporating a stimulus-evaluation task within this procedure revealed that suppressing memories of words (Experiment 2) and visual objects (Experiment 3) also results in their affective devaluation. Given the critical role of memory for guiding thoughts and actions, these results suggest that the affective consequences of inhibition may occur across a far broader range of situations than previously understood.

  14. Causal attribution and affective response as mediated by task performance and self-acceptance.

    PubMed

    Green, T D; Bailey, R C; Zinser, O; Williams, D E

    1994-12-01

    Predictions derived from cognitive consistency theories, self-esteem theories, and ego-serving-bias theory concerning how students would make attributional and affective responses to their academic performance were investigated. 202 university students completed a measure of self-acceptance of their college ability and made attributional and affective responses to an hypothetical examination performance. Analyses showed that students receiving positive feedback perceived greater internal causality and responded with greater positive affect than students receiving negative feedback. Self-acceptance did not moderate the attributions or affective reactions. The results supported the ego-serving-bias theory and provided partial support for self-esteem theory. Findings did not support predictions from cognitive-consistency theory.

  15. Task-specific kinetic finger tremor affects the performance of carrom players.

    PubMed

    Kahathuduwa, Chanaka N; Weerasinghe, Vajira S; Dassanayake, Tharaka L; Priyadarshana, Rajeewa; Dissanayake, Arunika L; Perera, Christine

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to determine the effect of task-specific kinetic finger tremor, as indexed by surface electromyography (EMG), on the accuracy of a carrom stroke. Surface EMG of extensor digitorum communis muscle of the playing arm was recorded during rest, isometric contraction and stroke execution in 17 male carrom players with clinically observed finger tremor and 18 skill- and age-matched controls. Log-transformed power spectral densities (LogPSDs) of surface EMG activity (signifying tremor severity) at a 1-s pre-execution period correlated with angular error of the stroke. LogPSDs in 4-10 Hz range were higher in players with tremor than controls during pre-execution (P < 0.001), but not during the resting state (P = 0.067). Pre-execution tremor amplitude correlated with angular deviation (r = 0.45, P = 0.007). For the first time, we document a task-specific kinetic finger tremor in carrom players. This finger tremor during the immediate pre-execution phase appears to be a significant determinant of stroke accuracy.

  16. Numeracy moderates the influence of task-irrelevant affect on probability weighting.

    PubMed

    Traczyk, Jakub; Fulawka, Kamil

    2016-06-01

    Statistical numeracy, defined as the ability to understand and process statistical and probability information, plays a significant role in superior decision making. However, recent research has demonstrated that statistical numeracy goes beyond simple comprehension of numbers and mathematical operations. On the contrary to previous studies that were focused on emotions integral to risky prospects, we hypothesized that highly numerate individuals would exhibit more linear probability weighting because they would be less biased by incidental and decision-irrelevant affect. Participants were instructed to make a series of insurance decisions preceded by negative (i.e., fear-inducing) or neutral stimuli. We found that incidental negative affect increased the curvature of the probability weighting function (PWF). Interestingly, this effect was significant only for less numerate individuals, while probability weighting in more numerate people was not altered by decision-irrelevant affect. We propose two candidate mechanisms for the observed effect.

  17. How stimulus and task complexity affect monitoring in high-functioning adults with autism spectrum disorder.

    PubMed

    Koolen, Sophieke; Vissers, Constance Th W M; Egger, Jos I M; Verhoeven, Ludo

    2014-10-01

    The present study examined whether individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are able to update and monitor working memory representations of visual input, and whether performance is influenced by stimulus and task complexity. 15 high-functioning adults with ASD and 15 controls were asked to allocate either elements of abstract figures or semantically meaningful pictures to the correct category, according to a certain set of rules. In general, the groups did not differ on measures of intelligence, working memory, attention, fluency and memory. For the monitoring of allocation of abstract figures, a similar pattern of reaction times was found for ASD and control participants. For the monitoring of allocation of semantically meaningful pictures, a different response pattern was found, with a stronger increase in response times for the ASD than for the control group when the number of categories increased. This suggests that participants with ASD are able to monitor working memory representations, but suffer under more complex circumstances.

  18. Human factors with nonhumans - Factors that affect computer-task performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Washburn, David A.

    1992-01-01

    There are two general strategies that may be employed for 'doing human factors research with nonhuman animals'. First, one may use the methods of traditional human factors investigations to examine the nonhuman animal-to-machine interface. Alternatively, one might use performance by nonhuman animals as a surrogate for or model of performance by a human operator. Each of these approaches is illustrated with data in the present review. Chronic ambient noise was found to have a significant but inconsequential effect on computer-task performance by rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta). Additional data supported the generality of findings such as these to humans, showing that rhesus monkeys are appropriate models of human psychomotor performance. It is argued that ultimately the interface between comparative psychology and technology will depend on the coordinated use of both strategies of investigation.

  19. Relationship between Defenses, Personality, and Affect during a Stress Task in Normal Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steiner, Hans; Erickson, Sarah J.; MacLean, Peggy; Medic, Sanja; Plattner, Belinda; Koopman, Cheryl

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Although there are extensive data on the relationship between personality and stress reactivity in adults, there is little comparable empirical research with adolescents. This study examines the simultaneous relationships between long term functioning (personality, defenses) and observed stress reactivity (affect) in adolescents.…

  20. Spatiotemporal Object History Affects the Selection of Task-Relevant Properties

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schreij, Daniel; Olivers, Christian N. L.

    2013-01-01

    For stable perception, we maintain mental representations of objects across space and time. What information is linked to such a representation? In this study, we extended our work showing that the spatiotemporal history of an object affects the way the object is attended the next time it is encountered. Observers conducted a visual search for a…

  1. Affective Priming in a Lexical Decision Task: Is There an Effect of Words' Concreteness?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ferré, Pilar; Sánchez-Casas, Rosa

    2014-01-01

    Affective priming occurs when responses to a target are facilitated when it is preceded by a prime congruent in valence. We conducted two experiments in order to test whether this is a genuine emotional effect or rather it can be accounted for by semantic relatedness between primes and targets. With this aim, semantic relatedness and emotional…

  2. Time on Task and Other Variables Affecting the Quality of Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Latham, Glenn

    Through a literature review and classroom observations, several variables affecting the quality of education were studied, focusing on processes related to student placement in special education and to instruction after placement. The study found that: (1) A dynamic interaction is needed among the referral, assessment, placement, and instruction…

  3. Executive Functions are not Affected by 24 Hours of Sleep Deprivation: A Color-Word Stroop Task Study

    PubMed Central

    Dixit, Abhinav; Mittal, Tushar

    2015-01-01

    Background: Sleep is an important factor affecting cognitive performance. Sleep deprivation results in fatigue, lack of concentration, confusion and sleepiness along with anxiety, depression and irritability. Sleep deprivation can have serious consequences in professions like armed forces and medicine where quick decisions and actions need to be taken. Color-Word Stroop task is one of the reliable tests to assess attention and it analyzes the processing of information in two dimensions i.e., reading of words and naming of colour. The evidence regarding the effect of sleep deprivation on Stroop interference is conflicting. The present study evaluated the effect of 24 hours of sleep deprivation on reaction time and interference in Stroop task. Materials and Methods: The present study was done on 30 healthy male medical student volunteers in the age group of 18-25 years after taking their consent and clearance from Institute Ethics Committee. Recordings of Stroop task were at three times: baseline (between 7-9 am), after 12 hours (7-9 pm) and after 24 hours (7-9 am, next day). The subjects were allowed to perform normal daily activities. Results: The study revealed a significant increase in reaction time after 24 hours of sleep deprivation in comparison to baseline and after 12 hours of sleep deprivation. There was no significant change in interference and facilitation after sleep deprivation in comparison to baseline. The number of errors also did not show any significant change after sleep deprivation. Conclusion: The study indicated that there was slowing of responses without change in executive functions after 24 hours of sleep deprivation. It is probable that 24 hours of sleep deprivation does not bring about change in areas of brain affecting executive functions in healthy individuals who have normal sleep cycle. The present study indicated that in professions like armed forces and medicine working 24 hours at a stretch can lead to decrease in motor responses

  4. Contextual control of conditioning is not affected by extinction in a behavioral task with humans.

    PubMed

    Nelson, James Byron; Lamoureux, Jeffrey A

    2015-06-01

    The Attentional Theory of Context Processing (ATCP) states that extinction will arouse attention to contexts resulting in learning becoming contextually controlled. Participants learned to suppress responding to colored sensors in a video-game task where contexts were provided by different gameplay backgrounds. Four experiments assessed the contextual control of simple excitatory learning acquired to a test stimulus (T) after (Exp. 1) or during (Exp. 2-4) extinction of another stimulus (X). Experiment 1 produced no evidence of contextual control of T, though renewal to X was present both at the time T was trained and tested. In Experiment 2 no contextual control of T was evident when X underwent extensive conditioning and extinction. In Experiment 3 no contextual control of T was evident after extensive conditioning and extinction of X, and renewal to X was present. In Experiment 4 contextual control was evident to T, but it neither depended upon nor was enhanced by extinction of X. The results presented here appear to limit the generality of ATCP.

  5. Elapsed decision time affects the weighting of prior probability in a perceptual decision task.

    PubMed

    Hanks, Timothy D; Mazurek, Mark E; Kiani, Roozbeh; Hopp, Elisabeth; Shadlen, Michael N

    2011-04-27

    Decisions are often based on a combination of new evidence with prior knowledge of the probable best choice. Optimal combination requires knowledge about the reliability of evidence, but in many realistic situations, this is unknown. Here we propose and test a novel theory: the brain exploits elapsed time during decision formation to combine sensory evidence with prior probability. Elapsed time is useful because (1) decisions that linger tend to arise from less reliable evidence, and (2) the expected accuracy at a given decision time depends on the reliability of the evidence gathered up to that point. These regularities allow the brain to combine prior information with sensory evidence by weighting the latter in accordance with reliability. To test this theory, we manipulated the prior probability of the rewarded choice while subjects performed a reaction-time discrimination of motion direction using a range of stimulus reliabilities that varied from trial to trial. The theory explains the effect of prior probability on choice and reaction time over a wide range of stimulus strengths. We found that prior probability was incorporated into the decision process as a dynamic bias signal that increases as a function of decision time. This bias signal depends on the speed-accuracy setting of human subjects, and it is reflected in the firing rates of neurons in the lateral intraparietal area (LIP) of rhesus monkeys performing this task.

  6. Fast and unintentional evaluation of emotional sounds: evidence from brief segment ratings and the affective Simon task.

    PubMed

    Folyi, Tímea; Wentura, Dirk

    2017-02-01

    In the present study, we raised the question of whether valence information of natural emotional sounds can be extracted rapidly and unintentionally. In a first experiment, we collected explicit valence ratings of brief natural sound segments. Results showed that sound segments of 400 and 600 ms duration-and with some limitation even sound segments as short as 200 ms-are evaluated reliably. In a second experiment, we introduced an auditory version of the affective Simon task to assess automatic (i.e. unintentional and fast) evaluations of sound valence. The pattern of results indicates that affective information of natural emotional sounds can be extracted rapidly (i.e. after a few hundred ms long exposure) and in an unintentional fashion.

  7. Arm dominance affects feedforward strategy more than feedback sensitivity during a postural task.

    PubMed

    Walker, Elise H E; Perreault, Eric J

    2015-07-01

    Handedness is a feature of human motor control that is still not fully understood. Recent work has demonstrated that the dominant and nondominant arm each excel at different behaviors and has proposed that this behavioral asymmetry arises from lateralization in the cerebral cortex: the dominant side specializes in predictive trajectory control, while the nondominant side is specialized for impedance control. Long-latency stretch reflexes are an automatic mechanism for regulating posture and have been shown to contribute to limb impedance. To determine whether long-latency reflexes also contribute to asymmetric motor behavior in the upper limbs, we investigated the effect of arm dominance on stretch reflexes during a postural task that required varying degrees of impedance control. Our results demonstrated slightly but significantly larger reflex responses in the biarticular muscles of the nondominant arm, as would be consistent with increased impedance control. These differences were attributed solely to higher levels of voluntary background activity in the nondominant biarticular muscles, indicating that feedforward strategies for postural stability may differ between arms. Reflex sensitivity, which was defined as the magnitude of the reflex response for matched levels of background activity, was not significantly different between arms for a broad subject population ranging from 23 to 51 years of age. These results indicate that inter-arm differences in feedforward strategies are more influential during posture than differences in feedback sensitivity, in a broad subject population. Interestingly, restricting our analysis to subjects under 40 years of age revealed a small increase in long-latency reflex sensitivity in the nondominant arm relative to the dominant arm. Though our subject numbers were small for this secondary analysis, it suggests that further studies may be required to assess the influence of reflex lateralization throughout development.

  8. Physical activity interventions differentially affect exercise task and barrier self-efficacy: A meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Higgins, Torrance J.; Middleton, Kathryn R.; Winner, Larry; Janelle, Christopher M.; Middleton, Kathryn R.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Researchers have yet to establish how interventions to increase physical activity influence specific self-efficacy beliefs. The current study sought to quantify the effect of interventions to increase physical activity among healthy adults on exercise task (EXSE) and barrier self-efficacy (BSE) via meta-analysis. Intervention characteristics associated with self-efficacy and physical activity changes were also identified. Methods A systematic database search and manual searches through reference lists of related publications were conducted for articles on randomized, controlled physical activity interventions. Published intervention studies reporting changes in physical activity behavior and either EXSE or BSE in healthy adults were eligible for inclusion. Results Of the 1,080 studies identified, 20 were included in the meta-analyses. Interventions had a significant effect of g = 0.208, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.027, 0.388], p < .05, on EXSE; g = 0.128, 95% CI [0.05, 0.20], p < .05 on BSE; and g = 0.335 95% CI [0.196, 0.475], p < .001, on physical activity. Moderator analyses indicated shorter interventions that did not include structured exercise sessions effectively increased EXSE and physical activity, whereas long interventions improved BSE. Interventions that did not provide support increased BSE and physical activity levels. Further, interventions that did not require the use of daily exercise logs improved EXSE and physical activity behavior. Conclusion Interventions designed to increase physical activity differentially influenced EXSE and BSE. EXSE appeared to play a more significant role during exercise adoption, whereas BSE was involved in the maintenance of exercise behavior. Recommendations are offered for the design of future interventions. PMID:23957904

  9. Affective decision making under uncertainty during a plausible aviation task: an fMRI study.

    PubMed

    Causse, Mickaël; Péran, Patrice; Dehais, Frédéric; Caravasso, Chiara Falletta; Zeffiro, Thomas; Sabatini, Umberto; Pastor, Josette

    2013-05-01

    In aeronautics, plan continuation error (PCE) represents failure to revise a flight plan despite emerging evidence suggesting that it is no longer safe. Assuming that PCE may be associated with a shift from cold to hot reasoning, we hypothesized that this transition may result from a large range of strong negative emotional influences linked with the decision to abort a landing and circle for a repeat attempt, referred to as a "go-around". We investigated this hypothesis by combining functional neuroimaging with an ecologically valid aviation task performed under contextual variation in incentive and situational uncertainty. Our goal was to identify regional brain activity related to the sorts of conservative or liberal decision-making strategies engaged when participants were both exposed to a financial payoff matrix constructed to bias responses in favor of landing acceptance, while they were simultaneously experiencing maximum levels of uncertainty related to high levels of stimulus ambiguity. Combined with the observed behavioral outcomes, our neuroimaging results revealed a shift from cold to hot decision making in response to high uncertainty when participants were exposed to the financial incentive. Most notably, while we observed activity increases in response to uncertainty in many frontal regions such as dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), less overall activity was observed when the reward was combined with uncertainty. Moreover, participants with poor decision making, quantified as a lower discriminability index d', exhibited riskier behavior coupled with lower activity in the right DLPFC. These outcomes suggest a disruptive effect of biased financial incentive and high uncertainty on the rational decision-making neural network, and consequently, on decision relevance.

  10. Food's visually perceived fat content affects discrimination speed in an orthogonal spatial task.

    PubMed

    Harrar, Vanessa; Toepel, Ulrike; Murray, Micah M; Spence, Charles

    2011-10-01

    Choosing what to eat is a complex activity for humans. Determining a food's pleasantness requires us to combine information about what is available at a given time with knowledge of the food's palatability, texture, fat content, and other nutritional information. It has been suggested that humans may have an implicit knowledge of a food's fat content based on its appearance; Toepel et al. (Neuroimage 44:967-974, 2009) reported visual-evoked potential modulations after participants viewed images of high-energy, high-fat food (HF), as compared to viewing low-fat food (LF). In the present study, we investigated whether there are any immediate behavioural consequences of these modulations for human performance. HF, LF, or non-food (NF) images were used to exogenously direct participants' attention to either the left or the right. Next, participants made speeded elevation discrimination responses (up vs. down) to visual targets presented either above or below the midline (and at one of three stimulus onset asynchronies: 150, 300, or 450 ms). Participants responded significantly more rapidly following the presentation of a HF image than following the presentation of either LF or NF images, despite the fact that the identity of the images was entirely task-irrelevant. Similar results were found when comparing response speeds following images of high-carbohydrate (HC) food items to low-carbohydrate (LC) food items. These results support the view that people rapidly process (i.e. within a few hundred milliseconds) the fat/carbohydrate/energy value or, perhaps more generally, the pleasantness of food. Potentially as a result of HF/HC food items being more pleasant and thus having a higher incentive value, it seems as though seeing these foods results in a response readiness, or an overall alerting effect, in the human brain.

  11. Arm Dominance Affects Feedforward Strategy more than Feedback Sensitivity during a Postural Task

    PubMed Central

    Walker, Elise H. E.; Perreault, Eric J.

    2015-01-01

    Handedness is a feature of human motor control that is still not fully understood. Recent work has demonstrated that the dominant and nondominant arm each excel at different behaviors, and has proposed that this behavioral asymmetry arises from lateralization in the cerebral cortex: the dominant side specializes in predictive trajectory control, while the nondominant side is specialized for impedance control. Long-latency stretch reflexes are an automatic mechanism for regulating posture, and have been shown to contribute to limb impedance. To determine whether long-latency reflexes also contribute to asymmetric motor behavior in the upper limbs, we investigated the effect of arm dominance on stretch reflexes during a postural task that required varying degrees of impedance control. Our results demonstrated slightly but significantly larger reflex responses in the biarticular muscles of the nondominant arm, as would be consistent with increased impedance control. These differences were attributed solely to higher levels of voluntary background activity in the nondominant biarticular muscles, indicating that feedforward strategies for postural stability may differ between arms. Reflex sensitivity, which was defined as the magnitude of the reflex response for matched levels of background activity, was not significantly different between arms for a broad subject population ranging from 23–51 years of age. These results indicate that inter-arm differences in feedforward strategies are more influential during posture than differences in feedback sensitivity, in a broad subject population. Interestingly, restricting our analysis to subjects under 40 years of age revealed a small increase in long-latency reflex sensitivity in the nondominant arm relative to the dominant arm. Though our subject numbers were small for this secondary analysis, it suggests that further studies may be required to assess the influence of reflex lateralization throughout development. PMID

  12. Comparing the Predictive Value of Multiple Cognitive, Affective, and Motor Tasks after Rodent Traumatic Brain Injury

    PubMed Central

    Loane, David J.; Murray, Michael G.; Stoica, Bogdan A.; Faden, Alan I.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Controlled cortical impact injury (CCI) is a widely-used, clinically-relevant model of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Although functional outcomes have been used for years in this model, little work has been done to compare the predictive value of various cognitive and sensorimotor assessment tests, singly or in combination. Such information would be particularly useful for assessing mechanisms of injury or therapeutic interventions. Following isoflurane anesthesia, C57BL/6 mice were subjected to sham, mild (5.0 m/sec), moderate (6.0 m/sec), or severe (7.5 m/sec) CCI. A battery of behavioral tests were evaluated and compared, including the standard Morris water maze (sMWM), reversal Morris water maze (rMWM), novel object recognition (NOR), passive avoidance (PA), tail-suspension (TS), beam walk (BW), and open-field locomotor activity. The BW task, performed at post-injury days (PID) 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 21, and 28, showed good discrimination as a function of injury severity. The sMWM and rMWM tests (PID 14–23), as well as NOR (PID 24 and 25), effectively discriminated spatial and novel object learning and memory across injury severity levels. Notably, the rMWM showed the greatest separation between mild and moderate/severe injury. PA (PID 27 and 28) and TS (PID 24) also reflected differences across injury levels, but to a lesser degree. We also compared individual functional measures with histological outcomes such as lesion volume and neuronal cell loss across anatomical regions. In addition, we created a novel composite behavioral score index from individual complementary behavioral scores, and it provided superior discrimination across injury severities compared to individual tests. In summary, this study demonstrates the feasibility of using a larger number of complementary functional outcome behavioral tests than those traditionally employed to follow post-traumatic recovery after TBI, and suggests that the composite score may be a helpful tool for

  13. Comparing the predictive value of multiple cognitive, affective, and motor tasks after rodent traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Zaorui; Loane, David J; Murray, Michael G; Stoica, Bogdan A; Faden, Alan I

    2012-10-10

    Controlled cortical impact injury (CCI) is a widely-used, clinically-relevant model of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Although functional outcomes have been used for years in this model, little work has been done to compare the predictive value of various cognitive and sensorimotor assessment tests, singly or in combination. Such information would be particularly useful for assessing mechanisms of injury or therapeutic interventions. Following isoflurane anesthesia, C57BL/6 mice were subjected to sham, mild (5.0 m/sec), moderate (6.0 m/sec), or severe (7.5 m/sec) CCI. A battery of behavioral tests were evaluated and compared, including the standard Morris water maze (sMWM), reversal Morris water maze (rMWM), novel object recognition (NOR), passive avoidance (PA), tail-suspension (TS), beam walk (BW), and open-field locomotor activity. The BW task, performed at post-injury days (PID) 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 21, and 28, showed good discrimination as a function of injury severity. The sMWM and rMWM tests (PID 14-23), as well as NOR (PID 24 and 25), effectively discriminated spatial and novel object learning and memory across injury severity levels. Notably, the rMWM showed the greatest separation between mild and moderate/severe injury. PA (PID 27 and 28) and TS (PID 24) also reflected differences across injury levels, but to a lesser degree. We also compared individual functional measures with histological outcomes such as lesion volume and neuronal cell loss across anatomical regions. In addition, we created a novel composite behavioral score index from individual complementary behavioral scores, and it provided superior discrimination across injury severities compared to individual tests. In summary, this study demonstrates the feasibility of using a larger number of complementary functional outcome behavioral tests than those traditionally employed to follow post-traumatic recovery after TBI, and suggests that the composite score may be a helpful tool for screening

  14. How explicit and implicit test instructions in an implicit learning task affect performance.

    PubMed

    Witt, Arnaud; Puspitawati, Ira; Vinter, Annie

    2013-01-01

    Typically developing children aged 5 to 8 years were exposed to artificial grammar learning. Following an implicit exposure phase, half of the participants received neutral instructions at test while the other half received instructions making a direct, explicit reference to the training phase. We first aimed to assess whether implicit learning operated in the two test conditions. We then evaluated the differential impact of age on learning performances as a function of test instructions. The results showed that performance did not vary as a function of age in the implicit instructions condition, while age effects emerged when explicit instructions were employed at test. However, performance was affected differently by age and the instructions given at test, depending on whether the implicit learning of short or long units was assessed. These results suggest that the claim that the implicit learning process is independent of age needs to be revised.

  15. Approach, avoidance, and affect: a meta-analysis of approach-avoidance tendencies in manual reaction time tasks.

    PubMed

    Phaf, R Hans; Mohr, Sören E; Rotteveel, Mark; Wicherts, Jelte M

    2014-01-01

    Approach action tendencies toward positive stimuli and avoidance tendencies from negative stimuli are widely seen to foster survival. Many studies have shown that approach and avoidance arm movements are facilitated by positive and negative affect, respectively. There is considerable debate whether positively and negatively valenced stimuli prime approach and avoidance movements directly (i.e., immediate, unintentional, implicit, automatic, and stimulus-based), or indirectly (i.e., after conscious or non-conscious interpretation of the situation). The direction and size of these effects were often found to depend on the instructions referring to the stimulus object or the self, and on explicit vs. implicit stimulus evaluation. We present a meta-analysis of 29 studies included for their use of strongly positive and negative stimuli, with 81 effect sizes derived solely from the means and standard deviations (combined N = 1538), to examine the automaticity of the link between affective information processing and approach and avoidance, and to test whether it depends on instruction, type of approach-avoidance task, and stimulus type. Results show a significant small to medium-sized effect after correction for publication bias. The strongest arguments for an indirect link between affect and approach-avoidance were the absence of evidence for an effect with implicit evaluation, and the opposite directions of the effect with self and object-related interpretations. The link appears to be influenced by conscious or non-conscious intentions to deal with affective stimuli.

  16. Approach, avoidance, and affect: a meta-analysis of approach-avoidance tendencies in manual reaction time tasks

    PubMed Central

    Phaf, R. Hans; Mohr, Sören E.; Rotteveel, Mark; Wicherts, Jelte M.

    2014-01-01

    Approach action tendencies toward positive stimuli and avoidance tendencies from negative stimuli are widely seen to foster survival. Many studies have shown that approach and avoidance arm movements are facilitated by positive and negative affect, respectively. There is considerable debate whether positively and negatively valenced stimuli prime approach and avoidance movements directly (i.e., immediate, unintentional, implicit, automatic, and stimulus-based), or indirectly (i.e., after conscious or non-conscious interpretation of the situation). The direction and size of these effects were often found to depend on the instructions referring to the stimulus object or the self, and on explicit vs. implicit stimulus evaluation. We present a meta-analysis of 29 studies included for their use of strongly positive and negative stimuli, with 81 effect sizes derived solely from the means and standard deviations (combined N = 1538), to examine the automaticity of the link between affective information processing and approach and avoidance, and to test whether it depends on instruction, type of approach-avoidance task, and stimulus type. Results show a significant small to medium-sized effect after correction for publication bias. The strongest arguments for an indirect link between affect and approach-avoidance were the absence of evidence for an effect with implicit evaluation, and the opposite directions of the effect with self and object-related interpretations. The link appears to be influenced by conscious or non-conscious intentions to deal with affective stimuli. PMID:24847292

  17. Does task shifting in tuberculosis microscopy services to non-certified technicians in Afghanistan affect quality?

    PubMed

    Mohammad, D; Enarson, D A; Khalid, S M; Taufique, R; Habibullah, H

    2014-03-21

    Contexte : Centres d'examens microscopiques de la tuberculose dans 30 provinces d'Afghanistan.Objectif : Comparer la qualité des examens de frottis de crachats entre les centres où les microscopistes sont des techniciens de laboratoire diplômés et ceux où ils ne le sont pas (titulaires du bac).Schéma : Etude transversale des registres des examens microscopiques des lames de frottis de crachats examinés par les techniciens et vérifiés par des examinateurs formés à l'assurance de qualité externe de routine entre juillet et septembre 2009.Résultats : Sur 129 techniciens non diplômés, 118 (91%) étaient affectés dans des centres de santé ruraux comparés à 217 (84%) sur 257 techniciens diplômés. Sur 386 centres de microscopie, 7313 lames ont été vérifiées. Sur 257 centres de microscopie pourvus de techniciens diplômés, 42 (16%) avaient au moins une lame comportant une erreur grave contre 23 (18%) dans 129 centres de microscopie pourvus de techniciens non diplômés – la différence n'était pas significative (OR 1,11 ; IC95% 0,64–1,94). Le nombre de lames comportant des erreurs graves était également similaire parmi les centres pourvus des deux types de techniciens.Conclusion : Cette étude confirme le déploiement de techniciens en microscopie non diplômés dans les centres de santé périphériques à travers tout le pays et montre que leur performance en matière d'examens de frottis de crachats est similaire à celle des techniciens diplômés après 3 années de formation.

  18. Data Assimilation of AIRS Water Vapor Profiles: Impact on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western of the United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blankenship, Clay; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary; Wick, Gary; Neiman, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric rivers are transient, narrow regions in the atmosphere responsible for the transport of large amounts of water vapor. These phenomena can have a large impact on precipitation. In particular, they can be responsible for intense rain events on the western coast of North America during the winter season. This paper focuses on attempts to improve forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Western US due to atmospheric rivers. Profiles of water vapor derived from from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations are combined with GFS forecasts by a three-dimensional variational data assimilation in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI). Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forecasts initialized from the combined field are compared to forecasts initialized from the GFS forecast only for 3 test cases in the winter of 2011. Results will be presented showing the impact of the AIRS profile data on water vapor and temperature fields, and on the resultant precipitation forecasts.

  19. It's not what you expect: feedback negativity is independent of reward expectation and affective responsivity in a non-probabilistic task.

    PubMed

    Highsmith, Jonathan M; Wuensch, Karl L; Tran, Tuan; Stephenson, Alexandra J; Everhart, D Erik

    2017-03-01

    ERP studies commonly utilize gambling-based reinforcement tasks to elicit feedback negativity (FN) responses. This study used a pattern learning task in order to limit gambling-related fallacious reasoning and possible affective responses to gambling, while investigating relationships between the FN components between high and low reward expectation conditions. Eighteen undergraduates completed measures of reinforcement sensitivity, trait and state affect, and psychophysiological recording. The pattern learning task elicited a FN component for both high and low win expectancy conditions, which was found to be independent of reward expectation and showed little relationship with task and personality variables. We also observed a P3 component, which showed sensitivity to outcome expectancy variation and relationships to measures of anxiety, appetitive motivation, and cortical asymmetry, although these varied by electrode location and expectancy condition. Findings suggest that the FN reflected a binary reward-related signal, with little relationship to reward expectation found in previous studies, in the absence of positive affective responses.

  20. Callosal agenesis affects consistency of laterality in a paw preference task in BALB/cCF mice.

    PubMed

    Manhães, Alex C; Schmidt, Sergio L; Filgueiras, Cláudio C

    2005-04-15

    We tested the hypothesis that the ontogenetic development of the corpus callosum (CC) affects the consistency of laterality in a paw preference task. Adult male mice (55 normal and 29 acallosal) of the BALB/cCF strain were initially tested (twice; inter-test interval: 72 h) in an unbiased setup in which both forepaws could easily perform a reaching movement. In a subsequent test, animals were placed in a biased setup that favored the use of the non-preferred paw. Acallosal and normal mice were strongly lateralized in the unbiased setup. Additionally, while normal mice did not present a populational bias favoring one of the paws, acallosal mice presented a significant bias favoring the left paw. In the biased setup, left- and right-pawed normal mice were equally consistent (approximately 65% of the animals, in both groups, used the preferred paw of the initial two tests, in spite of the bias). Conversely, while left-pawed acallosal mice were as consistent (65%) as normal mice, only 20% of right-pawed mice were consistent. These results suggest that the development of the CC affects consistency of laterality in a side-dependent manner. These results are discussed considering the role of the CC in the establishment of behavioral lateralization.

  1. Young Children's Affective Responses to Acceptance and Rejection from Peers: A Computer-Based Task Sensitive to Variation in Temperamental Shyness and Gender

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howarth, Grace Z.; Guyer, Amanda E.; Perez-Edgar, Koraly

    2013-01-01

    This study presents a novel task examining young children's affective responses to evaluative feedback--specifically, social acceptance and rejection--from peers. We aimed to determine (1) whether young children report their affective responses to hypothetical peer evaluation predictably and consistently, and (2) whether young children's responses…

  2. One Night of Sleep Deprivation Affects Reaction Time, but Not Interference or Facilitation in a Stroop Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cain, Sean W.; Silva, Edward J.; Chang, Anne-Marie; Ronda, Joseph M.; Duffy, Jeanne F.

    2011-01-01

    The Stroop color-naming task is one of the most widely studied tasks involving the inhibition of a prepotent response, regarded as an executive function. Several studies have examined performance on versions of the Stroop task under conditions of acute sleep deprivation. Though these studies revealed effects on Stroop performance, the results…

  3. Pathways from childhood abuse to prospective revictimization: depression, sex to reduce negative affect, and forecasted sexual behavior.

    PubMed

    Miron, Lynsey R; Orcutt, Holly K

    2014-11-01

    Research suggests that adverse events in childhood, such as childhood physical, sexual, and emotional abuse, confer risk for later sexual assault. Psychological distress, coping strategies, and sexual behavior may help explain the path from childhood abuse to revictimization. The present study explored how the use of sex to regulate negative affect (SRNA) operates independently, and in combination with other psychosocial factors to increase college women's (N=541) risk of experiencing prospective adult sexual assault (ASA). Sequential multiple mediator models in Mplus were used to assess the effect of three different forms of childhood abuse on prospective ASA, both independently and while controlling for other forms of childhood abuse. The indirect effect of adolescent sexual assault (AdolSA), depressive symptoms, SRNA, and participants' response to a sex-related vignette was tested using bias-corrected bootstrapping. In the full path model, childhood emotional abuse and AdolSA predicted ASA, while childhood physical and sexual abuse were directly associated with AdolSA, but not ASA. Additionally, depressive symptoms and participants' estimate of their likely behavior in a sex-related vignette directly predicted prospective ASA. Results using bootstrapping revealed that a history of childhood abuse predicted prospective ASA via diverse direct and indirect paths, as well as through a similar multiple mediator path. Overall, findings suggest that a combination of affective, coping, and sexual expectancy factors contribute to risk for revictimization in adult survivors of childhood abuse. Future research directions and targets for risk-reduction programming are discussed.

  4. Landslide forecasting and factors influencing predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Intrieri, Emanuele; Gigli, Giovanni

    2016-11-01

    Forecasting a catastrophic collapse is a key element in landslide risk reduction, but it is also a very difficult task owing to the scientific difficulties in predicting a complex natural event and also to the severe social repercussions caused by a false or missed alarm. A prediction is always affected by a certain error; however, when this error can imply evacuations or other severe consequences a high reliability in the forecast is, at least, desirable. In order to increase the confidence of predictions, a new methodology is presented here. In contrast to traditional approaches, this methodology iteratively applies several forecasting methods based on displacement data and, thanks to an innovative data representation, gives a valuation of the reliability of the prediction. This approach has been employed to back-analyse 15 landslide collapses. By introducing a predictability index, this study also contributes to the understanding of how geology and other factors influence the possibility of forecasting a slope failure. The results showed how kinematics, and all the factors influencing it, such as geomechanics, rainfall and other external agents, are key concerning landslide predictability.

  5. Forecasting Skill

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-01-01

    and in synoptic meteorology, many feel the improvements in forecasting the weather (clouds, winds , precipitation, and obstructions to vision) have...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I...rate of improve- ment of 10% as roughly comparable to the improvement rate obtained by the numerical models. The following types of forecasts seem to

  6. Which Factors Affect Hand Selection in Children's Grasping in Hemispace? Combined Effects of Task Demand and Motor Dominance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leconte, Pascale; Fagard, Jacqueline

    2006-01-01

    Sixty-five right- and left-handed preschool and school children were tested on three reach-to-grasp tasks of different levels of complexity, performed in three space locations. Our goal was to evaluate how the effect of attentional information related to object location interacts with task complexity and degree of handedness on children's hand…

  7. The use of a displacement device negatively affects the performance of dogs (Canis familiaris) in visible object displacement tasks

    PubMed Central

    Müller, Corsin A.; Riemer, Stefanie; Range, Friederike; Huber, Ludwig

    2014-01-01

    Visible and invisible displacement tasks have been used widely for comparative studies of animals’ understanding of object permanence, with evidence accumulating that some species can solve invisible displacement tasks and thus reach Piagetian stage 6 of object permanence. In contrast, dogs appear to rely on associative cues, such as the location of the displacement device, during invisible displacement tasks. It remains unclear, however, whether dogs, and other species that failed in invisible displacement tasks, do so due to their inability to form a mental representation of the target object, or simply due to the involvement of a more salient but potentially misleading associative cue, the displacement device. Here we show that the use of a displacement device impairs the performance of dogs also in visible displacement tasks: their search accuracy was significantly lower when a visible displacement was performed with a displacement device, and only two of initially 42 dogs passed the sham-baiting control conditions. The negative influence of the displacement device in visible displacement tasks may be explained by strong associative cues overriding explicit information about the target object’s location, reminiscent of an overshadowing effect, and/or object individuation errors as the target object is placed within the displacement device and moves along a spatiotemporally identical trajectory. Our data suggest that a comprehensive appraisal of a species’ performance in object permanence tasks should include visible displacement tasks with the same displacement device used in invisible displacements, which typically has not been done in the past. PMID:24611641

  8. The Personality Trait of Intolerance to Uncertainty Affects Behavior in a Novel Computer-Based Conditioned Place Preference Task

    PubMed Central

    Radell, Milen L.; Myers, Catherine E.; Beck, Kevin D.; Moustafa, Ahmed A.; Allen, Michael Todd

    2016-01-01

    Recent work has found that personality factors that confer vulnerability to addiction can also affect learning and economic decision making. One personality trait which has been implicated in vulnerability to addiction is intolerance to uncertainty (IU), i.e., a preference for familiar over unknown (possibly better) options. In animals, the motivation to obtain drugs is often assessed through conditioned place preference (CPP), which compares preference for contexts where drug reward was previously received. It is an open question whether participants with high IU also show heightened preference for previously rewarded contexts. To address this question, we developed a novel computer-based CPP task for humans in which participants guide an avatar through a paradigm in which one room contains frequent reward (i.e., rich) and one contains less frequent reward (i.e., poor). Following exposure to both contexts, subjects are assessed for preference to enter the previously rich and previously poor room. Individuals with low IU showed little bias to enter the previously rich room first, and instead entered both rooms at about the same rate which may indicate a foraging behavior. By contrast, those with high IU showed a strong bias to enter the previously rich room first. This suggests an increased tendency to chase reward in the intolerant group, consistent with previously observed behavior in opioid-addicted individuals. Thus, the personality factor of high IU may produce a pre-existing cognitive bias that provides a mechanism to promote decision-making processes that increase vulnerability to addiction. PMID:27555829

  9. Computerization of the standard corsi block-tapping task affects its underlying cognitive concepts: a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Claessen, Michiel H G; van der Ham, Ineke J M; van Zandvoort, Martine J E

    2015-01-01

    The tablet computer initiates an important step toward computerized administration of neuropsychological tests. Because of its lack of standardization, the Corsi Block-Tapping Task could benefit from advantages inherent to computerization. This task, which requires reproduction of a sequence of movements by tapping blocks as demonstrated by an examiner, is widely used as a representative of visuospatial attention and working memory. The aim was to validate a computerized version of the Corsi Task (e-Corsi) by comparing recall accuracy to that on the standard task. Forty university students (Mage = 22.9 years, SD = 2.7 years; 20 female) performed the standard Corsi Task and the e-Corsi on an iPad 3. Results showed higher accuracy in forward reproduction on the standard Corsi compared with the e-Corsi, whereas backward performance was comparable. These divergent performance patterns on the 2 versions (small-to-medium effect sizes) are explained as a result of motor priming and interference effects. This finding implies that computerization has serious consequences for the cognitive concepts that the Corsi Task is assumed to assess. Hence, whereas the e-Corsi was shown to be useful with respect to administration and registration, these findings also stress the need for reconsideration of the underlying theoretical concepts of this task.

  10. Inharmonic music elicits more negative affect and interferes more with a concurrent cognitive task than does harmonic music.

    PubMed

    Bonin, Tanor; Smilek, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    We evaluated whether task-irrelevant inharmonic music produces greater interference with cognitive performance than task-irrelevant harmonic music. Participants completed either an auditory (Experiment 1) or a visual (Experiment 2) version of the cognitively demanding 2-back task in which they were required to categorize each digit in a sequence of digits as either being a target (a digit also presented two positions earlier in the sequence) or a distractor (all other items). They were concurrently exposed to either task-irrelevant harmonic music (judged to be consonant), task-irrelevant inharmonic music (judged to be dissonant), or no music at all as a distraction. The main finding across both experiments was that performance on the 2-back task was worse when participants were exposed to inharmonic music than when they were exposed to harmonic music. Interestingly, performance on the 2-back task was generally the same regardless of whether harmonic music or no music was played. We suggest that inharmonic, dissonant music interferes with cognitive performance by requiring greater cognitive processing than harmonic, consonant music, and speculate about why this might be.

  11. Interim report of the interagency coal export task force: draft for public comment. [Trade by country 1960-1979; general forecasting to 1985, 1990 and 2000

    SciTech Connect

    1981-01-01

    The Interagency Coal Export Task Force was formed in the Spring of 1980 at the direction of the President, in support of the international efforts of the United States, encouraging the use of coal. Its purpose was to report on possible courses of action to increase United States steam coal exports in a manner consistent with other national policies, including our commitment to environmental protection. The Task Force assembled existing data, developed significant new information regarding the international coal market and undertook analyses of apparent problems underlying coal exports. The Task Force contributed to a public awareness of the fact that increased coal exports will serve both the domestic and international interests of the United States. Based upon extensive, independent field studies in Europe and the Far East, the Task Force concludes that there will be significant growth in world demand for steam coal. Such growth has already begun, has contributed to the almost seven-fold increase in United States overseas steam coal exports for 1990 over 1979, and is expected to continue beyond the end of this century. The growth in world steam coal trade projected in the report does not guarantee United States coal exporters a large or expanding share of the market. The United States' role depends on the buying strategies of the consuming countries, the policies and prices of competing exporters, and the actions taken by the United States to maintain reasonable prices, prompt delivery and dependable quality. Projections of United States steam coal exports, therefore, rest upon a number of highly uncertain factors which are discussed in some detail.

  12. Fishing Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    ROFFS stands for Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. Roffer combines satellite and computer technology with oceanographic information from several sources to produce frequently updated charts sometimes as often as 30 times a day showing clues to the location of marlin, sailfish, tuna, swordfish and a variety of other types. Also provides customized forecasts for racing boats and the shipping industry along with seasonal forecasts that allow the marine industry to formulate fishing strategies based on foreknowledge of the arrival and departure times of different fish. Roffs service exemplifies the potential for benefits to marine industries from satellite observations. Most notable results are reduced search time and substantial fuel savings.

  13. Contingency learning is not affected by conflict experience: Evidence from a task conflict-free, item-specific Stroop paradigm.

    PubMed

    Levin, Yulia; Tzelgov, Joseph

    2016-02-01

    A contingency learning account of the item-specific proportion congruent effect has been described as an associative stimulus-response learning process that has nothing to do with controlling the Stroop conflict. As supportive evidence, contingency learning has been demonstrated with response conflict-free stimuli, such as neutral words. However, what gives rise to response conflict and to Stroop interference in general is task conflict. The present study investigated whether task conflict can constitute a trigger or, alternatively, a booster to the contingency learning process. This was done by employing a "task conflict-free" condition (i.e., geometric shapes) and comparing it with a "task conflict" condition (i.e., neutral words). The results showed a significant contingency learning effect in both conditions, refuting the possibility that contingency learning is triggered by the presence of a task conflict. Contingency learning was also not enhanced by the task conflict experience, indicating its complete insensitivity to Stroop conflict(s). Thus, the results showed no evidence that performance optimization as a result of contingency learning is greater under conflict, implying that contingency learning is not recruited to assist the control system to overcome conflict.

  14. When sad groups expect to meet again: interactive affective sharing and future interaction expectation as determinants of work groups' analytical and creative task performance.

    PubMed

    Klep, Annefloor H M; Wisse, Barbara; van der Flier, Henk

    2013-12-01

    The present study examines the moderating role of future interaction expectation in the relationship between affective sharing and work groups' task performance. We argue that group affect, a group defining characteristic, becomes more salient to its members when it is interactively shared, and that the anticipation of future interaction may strengthen the effects of group defining characteristics on subsequent group member behaviour. As a consequence, interactive sharing (vs. non-interactive sharing) of negative affect is more likely to influence work group outcomes when group members expect to meet again. Results from a laboratory experiment with 66 three-person work groups indeed show that interactively shared (vs. non-interactively shared) negative affect facilitated work groups' analytical task performance, whereas it inhibited performance on a creative fluency task when groups have expectations of future interaction and not when they do not have such expectations. The discussion focuses on how these results add to theory on group affect and contribute to insights in the effects of future interaction expectation.

  15. The effects of catechol O-methyltransferase genotype on brain activation elicited by affective stimuli and cognitive tasks.

    PubMed

    Heinz, Andreas; Smolka, Michael N

    2006-01-01

    Catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) degrades the catecholamine neurotransmitters dopamine, epinephrine, and norepinephrine. A functional polymorphism in the COMT gene (val158 met) accounts for a four-fold variation in enzyme activity. The low activity met158 allele has been associated with improved working memory, executive functioning, and attentional control, but also with a higher risk of anxiety-related behaviors. In spite of the strong effect of the COMT genotype on enzyme activity, its effects on behavior are moderate, accounting for only 4% of variance in task performance. Studies of individuals with intermediate phenotypes during activities such as task-dependent brain activation, may more sensitively detect gene effects on the brain. A series of studies using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) assessed the effects of the COMT val158 met genotype on central processing during working memory, attentional control, and emotional tasks. fMRI revealed a more focused response in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) of met158 allele carriers during a working memory task. A comparable effect during the performance of an attentional control task in the cingulate cortex was also observed. These data indicate that met158 allele load is associated with improved processing efficiency in the PFC and cingulate, which might be due to lower prefrontal dopamine (DA) metabolism, higher DA concentrations, and an increased neuronal signal-to-noise ratio during information processing. During performance of an emotional task, reactivity to unpleasant visual stimuli was positively correlated with the number of met158 alleles in the amygdala, as well as in other limbic and paralimbic nodes. This increased limbic reactivity to unpleasant stimuli might be the underlying cause of the lower emotional resilience against negative mood states observed in individuals with a higher met158 allele load. Thus the met158 allele seems to be beneficial during the performance of working memory and

  16. Task Type Affects Location of Language-Positive Cortical Regions by Repetitive Navigated Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation Mapping

    PubMed Central

    Hauck, Theresa; Tanigawa, Noriko; Probst, Monika; Wohlschlaeger, Afra; Ille, Sebastian; Sollmann, Nico; Maurer, Stefanie; Zimmer, Claus; Ringel, Florian; Meyer, Bernhard; Krieg, Sandro M.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Recent repetitive TMS (rTMS) mapping protocols for language mapping revealed deficits of this method, mainly in posterior brain regions. Therefore this study analyzed the impact of different language tasks on the localization of language-positive brain regions and compared their effectiveness, especially with regard to posterior brain regions. Methods Nineteen healthy, right-handed subjects performed object naming, pseudoword reading, verb generation, and action naming during rTMS language mapping of the left hemisphere. Synchronically, 5 Hz/10 pulses were applied with a 0 ms delay Results The object naming task evoked the highest error rate (14%), followed by verb generation (13%) and action naming (11%). The latter revealed more errors in posterior than in anterior areas. Pseudoword reading barely generated errors, except for phonological paraphasias. Conclusions In general, among the evaluated language tasks, object naming is the most discriminative task to detect language-positive regions via rTMS. However, other tasks might be used for more specific questions. PMID:25928744

  17. Energy demand forecasting by means of Statistical Modelling: Assessing Benefits of Climate Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Felice, M.; Alessandri, A.; Ruti, P. M.

    2012-04-01

    Energy demand forecasting is a critical task and it allows to anticipate any problems that might affect power systems operators, especially during periods with high demand peaks. The difficulties of this task are due to the complexity of the systems involved: energy usage patterns are particularly variable and influenced by many factors, such as weather conditions, social, economic and political aspects (i.e. national regulations, international relations). The strong influence of weather on electricity demand in Italy is due to the wide use of residential air-conditioning devices and, more in general, refrigeration and ventilation equipments. For this reasons, accurate climate information may help in obtaining precise energy demand forecasts, usually performed with statistical methods which show their effectiveness particularly where large amount of data is available. We present a study with the aim of assess the effects of the quality of weather data on statistical modelling performance on energy demand forecasting, using data provided by national transmission grid operator.

  18. How Does Processing Affect Storage in Working Memory Tasks? Evidence for Both Domain-General and Domain-Specific Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jarrold, Christopher; Tam, Helen; Baddeley, Alan D.; Harvey, Caroline E.

    2011-01-01

    Two studies that examine whether the forgetting caused by the processing demands of working memory tasks is domain-general or domain-specific are presented. In each, separate groups of adult participants were asked to carry out either verbal or nonverbal operations on exactly the same processing materials while maintaining verbal storage items.…

  19. Continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS) on left cerebellar hemisphere affects mental rotation tasks during music listening.

    PubMed

    Picazio, Silvia; Oliveri, Massimiliano; Koch, Giacomo; Caltagirone, Carlo; Petrosini, Laura

    2013-01-01

    Converging evidence suggests an association between spatial and music domains. A cerebellar role in music-related information processing as well as in spatial-temporal tasks has been documented. Here, we investigated the cerebellar role in the association between spatial and musical domains, by testing performances in embodied (EMR) or abstract (AMR) mental rotation tasks of subjects listening Mozart Sonata K.448, which is reported to improve spatial-temporal reasoning, in the presence or in the absence of continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS) of the left cerebellar hemisphere. In the absence of cerebellar cTBS, music listening did not influence either MR task, thus not revealing a "Mozart Effect". Cerebellar cTBS applied before musical listening made subjects faster (P = 0.005) and less accurate (P = 0.005) in performing the EMR but not the AMR task. Thus, cerebellar inhibition by TBS unmasked the effect of musical listening on motor imagery. These data support a coupling between music listening and sensory-motor integration in cerebellar networks for embodied representations.

  20. Learning task affects ERP-correlates of the own-race bias, but not recognition memory performance.

    PubMed

    Stahl, Johanna; Wiese, Holger; Schweinberger, Stefan R

    2010-06-01

    People are generally better in recognizing faces from their own ethnic group as opposed to faces from another ethnic group, a finding which has been interpreted in the context of two opposing theories. Whereas perceptual expertise theories stress the role of long-term experience with one's own ethnic group, race feature theories assume that the processing of an other-race-defining feature triggers inferior coding and recognition of faces. The present study tested these hypotheses by manipulating the learning task in a recognition memory test. At learning, one group of participants categorized faces according to ethnicity, whereas another group rated facial attractiveness. Subsequent recognition tests indicated clear and similar own-race biases for both groups. However, ERPs from learning and test phases demonstrated an influence of learning task on neurophysiological processing of own- and other-race faces. While both groups exhibited larger N170 responses to Asian as compared to Caucasian faces, task-dependent differences were seen in a subsequent P2 ERP component. Whereas the P2 was more pronounced for Caucasian faces in the categorization group, this difference was absent in the attractiveness rating group. The learning task thus influences early face encoding. Moreover, comparison with recent research suggests that this attractiveness rating task influences the processes reflected in the P2 in a similar manner as perceptual expertise for other-race faces does. By contrast, the behavioural own-race bias suggests that long-term expertise is required to increase other-race face recognition and hence attenuate the own-race bias.

  1. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  2. Can stereotype threat affect motor performance in the absence of explicit monitoring processes? Evidence using a strength task.

    PubMed

    Chalabaev, Aïna; Brisswalter, Jeanick; Radel, Rémi; Coombes, Stephen A; Easthope, Christopher; Clément-Guillotin, Corentin

    2013-04-01

    Previous evidence shows that stereotype threat impairs complex motor skills through increased conscious monitoring of task performance. Given that one-step motor skills may not be susceptible to these processes, we examined whether performance on a simple strength task may be reduced under stereotype threat. Forty females and males performed maximum voluntary contractions under stereotypical or nullified-stereotype conditions. Results showed that the velocity of force production within the first milliseconds of the contraction decreased in females when the negative stereotype was induced, whereas maximal force did not change. In males, the stereotype induction only increased maximal force. These findings suggest that stereotype threat may impair motor skills in the absence of explicit monitoring processes, by influencing the planning stage of force production.

  3. Why Don't We Learn to Accurately Forecast Feelings? How Misremembering Our Predictions Blinds Us to Past Forecasting Errors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyvis, Tom; Ratner, Rebecca K.; Levav, Jonathan

    2010-01-01

    Why do affective forecasting errors persist in the face of repeated disconfirming evidence? Five studies demonstrate that people misremember their forecasts as consistent with their experience and thus fail to perceive the extent of their forecasting error. As a result, people do not learn from past forecasting errors and fail to adjust subsequent…

  4. Knowledge on the line: manipulating beliefs about the magnitudes of symbolic numbers affects the linearity of line estimation tasks.

    PubMed

    Chesney, Dana L; Matthews, Percival G

    2013-12-01

    It has been suggested that differences in performance on number-line estimation tasks are indicative of fundamental differences in people's underlying representations of numerical magnitude. However, we were able to induce logarithmic-looking performance in adults for magnitude ranges over which they can typically perform linearly by manipulating their familiarity with the symbolic number formats that we used for the stimuli. This serves as an existence proof that individuals' performances on number-line estimation tasks do not necessarily reflect the functional form of their underlying numerical magnitude representations. Rather, performance differences may result from symbolic difficulties (i.e., number-to-symbol mappings), independently of the underlying functional form. We demonstrated that number-line estimates that are well fit by logarithmic functions need not be produced by logarithmic functions. These findings led us to question the validity of considering logarithmic-looking performance on number-line estimation tasks as being indicative that magnitudes are being represented logarithmically, particularly when symbolic understanding is in question.

  5. Valence asymmetries in the human amygdala: task relevance modulates amygdala responses to positive more than negative affective cues.

    PubMed

    Stillman, Paul E; Van Bavel, Jay J; Cunningham, William A

    2015-04-01

    Organisms must constantly balance appetitive needs with vigilance for potential threats. Recent research suggests that the amygdala may play an important role in both of these goals. Although the amygdala plays a role in processing motivationally relevant stimuli that are positive or negative, negative information often appears to carry greater weight. From a functional perspective, this may reflect the fact that threatening stimuli generally require action, whereas appetitive stimuli can often be safely ignored. In this study, we examine whether amygdala activation to positive stimuli may be more sensitive to task goals than negative stimuli, which are often related to self-preservation concerns. During fMRI, participants were presented with two images that varied on valence and extremity and were instructed to focus on one of the images. Results indicated that negative stimuli elicited greater amygdala activity regardless of task relevance. In contrast, positive stimuli only led to a relative increase in amygdala activity when they were task relevant. This suggests that the amygdala may be more responsive to negative stimuli regardless of their relevance to immediate goals, whereas positive stimuli may only elicit amygdala activity when they are relevant to the perceivers' goals. This pattern of valence asymmetry in the human amygdala may help balance approach-related goal pursuit with chronic self-preservation goals.

  6. Forecasting Earthquakes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    In this video there are scenes of damage from the Northridge Earthquake and interviews with Dr. Andrea Donnelan, Geophysics at JPL, and Dr. Jim Dolan, earthquake geologist from Cal. Tech. The interviews discuss earthquake forecasting by tracking changes in the earth's crust using antenna receiving signals from a series of satellites called the Global Positioning System (GPS).

  7. Reasonable Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Kelley R.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for…

  8. Turbulence forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandler, C. L.

    1987-01-01

    In order to forecast turbulence, one needs to have an understanding of the cause of turbulence. Therefore, an attempt is made to show the atmospheric structure that often results when aircraft encounter moderate or greater turbulence. The analysis is based on thousands of hours of observations of flights over the past 39 years of aviation meteorology.

  9. Cognitive tasks during walking affect cerebral blood flow signal features in middle cerebral arteries and their correlation to gait characteristics.

    PubMed

    Gatouillat, Arthur; Bleton, Héloïse; VanSwearingen, Jessie; Perera, Subashan; Thompson, Scott; Smith, Traci; Sejdić, Ervin

    2015-09-26

    Gait is a complex process involving both cognitive and sensory ability and is strongly impacted by the environment. In this paper, we propose to study of the impact of a cognitive task during gait on the cerebral blood flow velocity, the blood flow signal features and the correlation of gait and blood flow features through a dual task methodology. Both cerebral blood flow velocity and gait characteristics of eleven participants with no history of brain or gait conditions were recorded using transcranial Doppler on mid-cerebral artery while on a treadmill. The cognitive task was induced by a backward counting starting from 10,000 with decrement of 7. Central blood flow velocity raw and envelope features were extracted in both time, frequency and time-scale domain; information-theoretic metrics were also extracted and statistical significances were inspected. A similar feature extraction was performed on the stride interval signal. Statistical differences between the cognitive and baseline trials, between the left and right mid-cerebral arteries signals and the impact of the antropometric variables where studied using linear mixed models. No statistical differences were found between the left and right mid-cerebral arteries flows or the baseline and cognitive state gait features, while statistical differences for specific features were measured between cognitive and baseline states. These statistical differences found between the baseline and cognitive states show that cognitive process has an impact on the cerebral activity during walking. The state was found to have an impact on the correlation between the gait and blood flow features.

  10. Young Children’s Affective Responses to Acceptance and Rejection From Peers: A Computer-based Task Sensitive to Variation in Temperamental Shyness and Gender

    PubMed Central

    Howarth, Grace Z.; Guyer, Amanda E.; Pérez-Edgar, Koraly

    2013-01-01

    This study presents a novel task examining young children’s affective responses to evaluative feedback—specifically, social acceptance and rejection—from peers. We aimed to determine (1) whether young children report their affective responses to hypothetical peer evaluation predictably and consistently, and (2) whether young children’s responses to peer evaluation vary as a function of temperamental shyness and gender. Four- to seven-year-old children (N = 48) sorted pictures of unknown, similar-aged children into those with whom they wished or did not wish to play. Computerized peer evaluation later noted whether the pictured children were interested in a future playdate with participants. Participants then rated their affective responses to each acceptance or rejection event. Children were happy when accepted by children with whom they wanted to play, and disappointed when these children rejected them. Highly shy boys showed a wider range of responses to acceptance and rejection based on initial social interest, and may be particularly sensitive to both positive and negative evaluation. Overall, the playdate task captures individual differences in affective responses to evaluative peer feedback and is potentially amenable to future applications in research with young children, including pairings with psychophysiological measures. PMID:23997429

  11. An investigation on how inner-core structures obtained through radar data assimilation affect track forecasting of typhoon Jangmi (2008) near Taiwan Island

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Mingjun; Xue, Ming; Zhao, Kun

    2016-09-01

    The impacts of radar data assimilation (DA) on the westward track deflection of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) near Taiwan Island and the deflection mechanism are investigated. Initial conditions from two data assimilation experiments with significant track forecast differences are analyzed and compared. The environmental, axisymmetric, wave number 1 to 3 asymmetric fields of the typhoon are decomposed by using vortex separation and Fourier decomposition methods. The components are selectively recomposed into new initial conditions that include different vortex-scale components to examine the impact of individual components on the track prediction. The wave number 1 asymmetric structure is found to play a dominant role in the westward deflection of Typhoon Jangmi, and the accurate analysis of this component with radar DA helps to improve the track forecast. The wave number 1 asymmetric circulation is manifested as a pair of cyclonic and anticyclonic gyres with well-defined ventilation flows through the inner-core region, which provides additional steering of the typhoon vortex. The layer-mean environmental steering flow and ventilation flow associated with the wave number 1 gyres are further calculated to quantitatively evaluate the impact of ventilation flow. The ventilation flow is shown to be responsible for most of the westward motion component, suggesting again its role in causing the westward track deflection of Typhoon Jangmi. The results also suggest the importance of analyzing vortex-scale asymmetric structures for accurate tropical cyclone track forecasting, especially when there is a significant track deflection.

  12. Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karolak, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

  13. Tablet Keyboard Configuration Affects Performance, Discomfort and Task Difficulty for Thumb Typing in a Two-Handed Grip.

    PubMed

    Trudeau, Matthieu B; Catalano, Paul J; Jindrich, Devin L; Dennerlein, Jack T

    2013-01-01

    When holding a tablet computer with two hands, the touch keyboard configuration imposes postural constraints on the user because of the need to simultaneously hold the device and type with the thumbs. Designers have provided users with several possible keyboard configurations (device orientation, keyboard layout and location). However, potential differences in performance, usability and postures among these configurations have not been explored. We hypothesize that (1) the narrower standard keyboard layout in the portrait orientation leads to lower self-reported discomfort and less reach than the landscape orientation; (2) a split keyboard layout results in better overall outcomes compared to the standard layout; and (3) the conventional bottom keyboard location leads to the best outcomes overall compared to other locations. A repeated measures laboratory experiment of 12 tablet owners measured typing speed, discomfort, task difficulty, and thumb/wrist joint postures using an active marker system during typing tasks for different combinations of device orientation (portrait and landscape), keyboard layout (standard and split), and keyboard location (bottom, middle, top). The narrower standard keyboard with the device in the portrait orientation was associated with less discomfort (least squares mean (and S.E.) 2.9±0.6) than the landscape orientation (4.5±0.7). Additionally, the split keyboard decreased the amount of reaching required by the thumb in the landscape orientation as defined by a reduced range of motion and less MCP extension, which may have led to reduced discomfort (2.7±0.6) compared to the standard layout (4.5±0.7). However, typing speed was greater for the standard layout (127±5 char./min.) compared to the split layout (113±4 char./min.) regardless of device orientation and keyboard location. Usage guidelines and designers can incorporate these findings to optimize keyboard design parameters and form factors that promote user performance and

  14. Forecaster's dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lerch, Sebastian; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Gneiting, Tilmann

    2015-04-01

    In discussions of the quality of forecasts in the media and public, attention often focuses on the predictive performance in the case of extreme events. Intuitively, accurate predictions on the subset of extreme events seem to suggest better predictive ability. However, it can be demonstrated that restricting conventional forecast verification methods to subsets of observations might have unexpected and undesired effects and may discredit even the most skillful forecasters. Hand-picking extreme events is incompatible with the theoretical assumptions of established forecast verification methods, thus confronting forecasters with what we refer to as the forecaster's dilemma. For probabilistic forecasts, weighted proper scoring rules provide suitable alternatives for forecast evaluation with an emphasis on extreme events. Using theoretical arguments, simulation experiments and a case study on probabilistic forecasts of wind speed over Germany, we illustrate the forecaster's dilemma and the use of weighted proper scoring rules.

  15. Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task

    PubMed Central

    O’Brien, Megan K.

    2014-01-01

    Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing) and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform). We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat. PMID:25083345

  16. Post-traumatic stress disorder symptom burden and gender each affect generalization in a reward- and punishment-learning task

    PubMed Central

    Beck, Kevin D.; Gilbertson, Mark W.; Myers, Catherine E.

    2017-01-01

    Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) can develop following exposure to a traumatic event. Re-experiencing, which includes intrusive memories or flashbacks of the trauma, is a core symptom cluster of PTSD. From an associative learning perspective, this cluster may be attributed to cues associated with the trauma, which have come to elicit symptoms in a variety of situations encountered in daily life due to a tendency to overgeneralize. Consistent with this, prior studies have indicated that both individuals with clinically diagnosed with PTSD, and those with self-reported symptoms who may not meet full diagnostic criteria, show changes in generalization. Building on prior research, the current study examined whether PTSD symptom burden, but also gender, veteran status, and combat experience–all associated with PTSD vulnerability–modulate learning and generalization in a computer-based task. Participants were presented with stimulus compounds consisting of a foreground and background that could be predictive of reward, punishment or no outcome. Learning was followed by a generalization test where these components were recombined to form novel configurations. An interaction between PTSD symptom burden and gender was found where females with more severe PTSD symptoms showed no evidence of sensitivity to the background. This result is consistent with increased generalization, and may indicate a decrease in the ability to process cue configurations leading to re-experiencing in a variety of situations. Further work is indicated to help elucidate the cognitive processes driving gender differences that may confer vulnerability to PTSD. PMID:28196108

  17. Target enhancement and distractor inhibition affect transitory surround suppression in dual tasks using multiple rapid serial visual presentation streams.

    PubMed

    Wu, Xia; Greenwood, Pamela; Fu, Shimin

    2016-01-01

    Few studies have investigated the interaction between temporal and spatial dimensions on selective attention using dual tasks in the multiple rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) paradigm. A phenomenon that the surround suppression in space changes over time (termed transitory surround suppression, TSS, in the present study) has been observed, suggesting the existence of this time-space interaction. However, it is still unclear whether target enhancement or distractor inhibition modulates TSS. Four behavioural experiments were conducted to investigate the mechanism of TSS by manipulating the temporal lag and spatial distance factors between two targets embedded in six RSVP streams. The TSS effect was replicated in a study that eliminated confounds of perceptual effects and attentional switch (Experiment 1). However, the TSS disappeared when two targets shared the same colour in a between-subjects design (Experiment 2a) and a within-subject design (Experiment 2b), suggesting the impact of target enhancement on TSS. Moreover, the TSS was larger for within-category than for between-category distractors (Experiment 3), indicating the impact of distractor inhibition on TSS. These two influences on TSS under different processing demands of target and distractor processing were further confirmed in a skeletal design (Experiment 4). Overall, combinative effects of target enhancement and distractor suppression contribute to the mechanisms of time-space interaction in selective attention during visual search.

  18. Post-traumatic stress disorder symptom burden and gender each affect generalization in a reward- and punishment-learning task.

    PubMed

    Radell, Milen L; Beck, Kevin D; Gilbertson, Mark W; Myers, Catherine E

    2017-01-01

    Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) can develop following exposure to a traumatic event. Re-experiencing, which includes intrusive memories or flashbacks of the trauma, is a core symptom cluster of PTSD. From an associative learning perspective, this cluster may be attributed to cues associated with the trauma, which have come to elicit symptoms in a variety of situations encountered in daily life due to a tendency to overgeneralize. Consistent with this, prior studies have indicated that both individuals with clinically diagnosed with PTSD, and those with self-reported symptoms who may not meet full diagnostic criteria, show changes in generalization. Building on prior research, the current study examined whether PTSD symptom burden, but also gender, veteran status, and combat experience-all associated with PTSD vulnerability-modulate learning and generalization in a computer-based task. Participants were presented with stimulus compounds consisting of a foreground and background that could be predictive of reward, punishment or no outcome. Learning was followed by a generalization test where these components were recombined to form novel configurations. An interaction between PTSD symptom burden and gender was found where females with more severe PTSD symptoms showed no evidence of sensitivity to the background. This result is consistent with increased generalization, and may indicate a decrease in the ability to process cue configurations leading to re-experiencing in a variety of situations. Further work is indicated to help elucidate the cognitive processes driving gender differences that may confer vulnerability to PTSD.

  19. Effect of low-frequency transcranial magnetic stimulation on an affective go/no-go task in patients with major depression: role of stimulation site and depression severity.

    PubMed

    Bermpohl, Felix; Fregni, Felipe; Boggio, Paulo S; Thut, Gregor; Northoff, Georg; Otachi, Patricia T M; Rigonatti, Sergio P; Marcolin, Marco A; Pascual-Leone, Alvaro

    2006-01-30

    Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) holds promise as a therapeutic tool in major depression. However, a means to assess the effects of a single rTMS session on mood to guide subsequent sessions would be desirable. The present study examined the effects of a single rTMS session on an affective go/no-go task known to measure emotional-cognitive deficits associated with major depression. Ten patients with an acute episode of unipolar major depression and eight partially or completely remitted (improved) patients underwent 1 Hz rTMS over the left and right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex prior to task performance. TMS over the mesial occipital cortex was used as a control. We observed significantly improved performance in depressed patients following right prefrontal rTMS. This beneficial effect declined with decreasing depression severity and tended to reverse in the improved group. Left prefrontal rTMS had no significant effect in the depressed group, but it resulted in impaired task performance in the improved group. Our findings indicate that the acute response of depressed patients to rTMS varies with the stimulation site and depression severity. Further studies are needed to determine whether the present paradigm could be used to predict antidepressant treatment success or to individualize stimulation parameters according to specific pathology.

  20. NF-kappaB activity affects learning in aversive tasks: possible actions via modulation of the stress axis.

    PubMed

    Lehmann, Michael L; Brachman, Rebecca A; Listwak, Samuel J; Herkenham, Miles

    2010-08-01

    The role of altered activity of nuclear factor kappaB (NF-kappaB) in specific aspects of motivated behavior and learning and memory was examined in mice lacking the p50 subunit of the NF-kappaB/rel transcription factor family. Nfkb1-deficient mice are unable to produce p50 and show specific susceptibilities to infections and inflammatory challenges, but the behavioral phenotype of such mice has been largely unexamined, owing in large part to the lack of understanding of the role of NF-kappaB in nervous system function. Here we show that Nfkb1 (p50) knockout mice more rapidly learned to find the hidden platform in the Morris water maze than did wildtype mice. The rise in plasma corticosterone levels after the maze test was greater in p50 knockout than in wildtype mice. In the less stressful Barnes maze, which tests similar kinds of spatial learning, the p50 knockout mice performed similarly to control mice. Adrenalectomy with corticosterone replacement eliminated the differences between p50 knockout and wildtype mice in the water maze. Knockout mice showed increased levels of basal anxiety in the open-field and light/dark box tests, suggesting that their enhanced escape latency in the water maze was due to activation of the stress (hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal) axis leading to elevated corticosterone production by strongly but not mildly anxiogenic stimuli. The results suggest that, as in the immune system, p50 in the nervous system normally serves to dampen NF-kappaB-mediated intracellular activities, which are manifested physiologically through elevated stress responses to aversive stimuli and behaviorally in the facilitated escape performance in learning tasks.

  1. Cognitive, Affective, and Motivational Changes during Ostracism: An ERP, EMG, and EEG Study Using a Computerized Cyberball Task.

    PubMed

    Kawamoto, Taishi; Nittono, Hiroshi; Ura, Mitsuhiro

    2013-01-01

    Individuals are known to be highly sensitive to signs of ostracism, such as being ignored or excluded; however, the cognitive, affective, and motivational processes underlying ostracism have remained unclear. We investigated temporal changes in these psychological states resulting from being ostracized by a computer. Using event-related brain potentials (ERPs), the facial electromyogram (EMG), and electroencephalogram (EEG), we focused on the P3b amplitude, corrugator supercilii activity, and frontal EEG asymmetry, which reflect attention directed at stimuli, negative affect, and approach/withdrawal motivation, respectively. Results of the P3b and corrugator supercilii activity replicated findings of previous studies on being ostracized by humans. The mean amplitude of the P3b wave decreased, and facial EMG activity increased over time. In addition, frontal EEG asymmetry changed from relative left frontal activation, suggestive of approach motivation, to relative right frontal activation, indicative of withdrawal motivation. These findings suggest that ostracism by a computer-generated opponent is an aversive experience that in time changes the psychological status of ostracized people, similar to ostracism by human. Our findings also imply that frontal EEG asymmetry is a useful index for investigating ostracism. Results of this study suggest that ostracism has well developed neurobiological foundations.

  2. Task-Based and Questionnaire Measures of Inhibitory Control Are Differentially Affected by Acute Food Restriction and by Motivationally Salient Food Stimuli in Healthy Adults

    PubMed Central

    Bartholdy, Savani; Cheng, Jiumu; Schmidt, Ulrike; Campbell, Iain C.; O'Daly, Owen G.

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive eating behaviors are dependent on an interaction between motivational states (e.g., hunger) and the ability to control one's own behavior (inhibitory control). Indeed, behavioral paradigms are emerging that seek to train inhibitory control to improve eating behavior. However, inhibitory control is a multifaceted concept, and it is not yet clear how different types (e.g., reactive motor inhibition, proactive motor inhibition, reward-related inhibition) are affected by hunger. Such knowledge will provide insight into the contexts in which behavioral training paradigms would be most effective. The present study explored the impact of promoting a “need” state (hunger) together with motivationally salient distracting stimuli (food/non-food images) on inhibitory control in 46 healthy adults. Participants attended two study sessions, once after eating breakfast as usual and once after acute food restriction on the morning of the session. In each session, participants completed questionnaires on hunger, mood and inhibitory control, and undertook task-based measures of inhibitory control, and had physiological measurements (height, weight, and blood glucose) obtained by a researcher. Acute food restriction influenced task-based assessments but not questionnaire measures of inhibitory control, suggesting that hunger affects observable behavioral control but not self-reported inhibitory control. After acute food restriction, participants showed greater temporal discounting (devaluation of future rewards), and subjective hunger and these were inversely correlated with stop accuracy on the stop signal task. Finally, participants generally responded faster when food-related distractor images were presented, compared to non-food images, independent of state. This suggests that although food stimuli motivate approach behavior, stimulus relevance does not impact inhibitory control in healthy individuals, nor interact with motivational state. These findings may provide

  3. Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic models of infectious disease systems abound and are used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms affecting transmission, and the suitability of various control and intervention strategies. The dynamics of disease transmission are non-linear and consequently difficult to forecast. Here, we describe combined model-inference frameworks developed for the prediction of infectious diseases. We show that accurate and reliable predictions of seasonal influenza outbreaks can be made using a mathematical model representing population-level influenza transmission dynamics that has been recursively optimized using ensemble data assimilation techniques and real-time estimates of influenza incidence. Operational real-time forecasts of influenza and other infectious diseases have been and are currently being generated.

  4. Healthy co-twins of patients with affective disorders show reduced risk-related activation of the insula during a monetary gambling task

    PubMed Central

    Macoveanu, Julian; Miskowiak, Kamilla; Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vinberg, Maj; Siebner, Hartwig Roman

    2016-01-01

    Background Healthy first-degree relatives of patients with affective disorders are at increased risk for affective disorders and express discrete structural and functional abnormalities in the brain reward system. However, value-based decision making is not well understood in these at-risk individuals. Methods We investigated healthy monozygotic and dizygotic twins with or without a co-twin history of affective disorders (high-risk and low-risk groups, respectively) using functional MRI during a gambling task. We assessed group differences in activity related to gambling risk over the entire brain. Results We included 30 monozygotic and 37 dizygotic twins in our analysis. Neural activity in the anterior insula and ventral striatum increased linearly with the amount of gambling risk in the entire cohort. Individual neuroticism scores were positively correlated with the neural response in the ventral striatum to increasing gambling risk and negatively correlated with individual risk-taking behaviour. Compared with low-risk twins, the high-risk twins showed a bilateral reduction of risk-related activity in the middle insula extending into the temporal cortex with increasing gambling risk. Post hoc analyses revealed that this effect was strongest in dizygotic twins. Limitations The relatively old average age of the mono- and dizygotic twin cohort (49.2 yr) may indicate an increased resilience to affective disorders. The size of the monozygotic high-risk group was relatively small (n = 13). Conclusion The reduced processing of risk magnitude in the middle insula may indicate a deficient integration of exteroceptive information related to risk-related cues with interoceptive states in individuals at familial risk for affective disorders. Impaired risk processing might contribute to increased vulnerability to affective disorders. PMID:26395812

  5. The memory stages of a spatial Y-maze task are not affected by a low dose of ketamine/midazolam.

    PubMed

    Valentim, Ana M; Ribeiro, Patrícia O; Olsson, I Anna S; Antunes, Luís M

    2013-07-15

    Anesthetics, such as the ketamine/midazolam combination, are used in research with animals and in human clinical practice; thus, it is essential to clarify the potential effects of these anesthetics on memory. This study aimed to evaluate how a low dose of the ketamine/midazolam combination affects the acquisition, consolidation, or recall of a spatial memory task. Thirty-three adult male C57BL/6 mice were divided into four treatment groups: unanesthetized control animals and three groups of animals treated with 40 mg/kg of ketamine and 10mg/kg of midazolam administered in a single intraperitoneal injection. The different treatment groups received the same anesthetic dose at different time points, to study the acquisition, consolidation, and recall of spatial memory in the Y-maze task. The percentage of correct choices was measured. Six mice were killed 4 days and 12 days after anesthesia for histopathological analyses. There were no differences between treatment and control groups regarding the acquisition of spatial memory, measured as the slope of the learning curve, or in the percentage of correct choices in the consolidation or recall periods of the task. Similarly, no differences were detected between groups regarding the number of cells per square millimeter in the visual and retrosplenial cortex, in the dentate gyrus, and in the CA1 and CA3 regions of the hippocampus. Hence, a low dose of the ketamine/midazolam combination did not impair memory processes or brain integrity in adult mice, suggesting that this combination is unlikely to cause cognitive complications.

  6. Maintaining Realistic Uncertainty in Model and Forecast

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2000-09-30

    Maintaining Realistic Uncertainty in Model and Forecast Leonard Smith Pembroke College Oxford University St. Aldates Oxford OX1 1DW United Kingdom...5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Pembroke College, Oxford University ,,St...evaluation: l-shadowing, probabilistic prediction and weather forecasting. D.Phil Thesis, Oxford University . Lorenz, E. (1995) Predictability-a Partially

  7. Forecast Mekong

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    Forecast Mekong is part of the U.S. Department of State's Lower Mekong Initiative, which was launched in 2009 by Secretary Hillary Clinton and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam to enhance partnerships between the U.S. and the Lower Mekong River countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working in close cooperation with the U.S. Department of State to use research and data from the Lower Mekong Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decision makers in Lower Mekong River countries in the planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the basin.

  8. Using Forecasting to Teach Weather Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsubota, Y.; Takahashi, T.

    2009-09-01

    Weather affects our lives and hence, is a popular topic in daily conversations and in the media. Therefore, it is not only important to teach weather, but is also a good idea to use 'weather' as a topic in science teaching. Science education has two main objectives: to acquire scientific concepts and methods. Weather forecasting is an adequate theme to teach scientific methods because it is dependent on observation. However, it is not easy to forecast weather using only temporal observation. We need to know the tendency of 'weather change' via consecutive and/or continuous weather observation. Students will acquire scientific-observation skills through weather observation. Data-processing skills would be enhanced through a weather-forecasting contest. A contest should be announced within 5 days of school events, such as a school excursion and field day. Students submit their own weather forecast by gathering weather information through the internet, news paper and so on. A weather-forecasting contest compels the student to observe the weather more often. We currently have some different weather forecasts. For example, American weather-related companies such as ACCU weather and Weather Channel provide weather forecast for the many locations all over the world. Comparing these weather forecasting with actual weather, participants such as students could evaluate the differences between forecasted and actual temperatures. Participants will judge the best weather forecast based on the magnitude of the difference. Also, participants evaluate the 'hitting ratio' of each weather forecast. Students can learn elementary statistics by comparing various weather forecasts. We have developed our weather web-site that provides our own weather forecasting and observation. Students acquire science skills using our weather web-site. We will report our lessen plans and explain our weather web-site.

  9. Task Integration Facilitates Multitasking

    PubMed Central

    de Oliveira, Rita F.; Raab, Markus; Hegele, Mathias; Schorer, Jörg

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate multi-task integration in a continuous tracking task. We were particularly interested in how manipulating task structure in a dual-task situation affects learning of a constant segment embedded in a pursuit-tracking task. Importantly, we examined if dual-task effects could be attributed to task integration by varying the structural similarity and difficulty of the primary and secondary tasks. In Experiment 1 participants performed a pursuit tracking task while counting high-pitched tones and ignoring low-pitched tones. The tones were either presented randomly or structurally 250 ms before each tracking turn. Experiment 2 increased the motor load of the secondary tasks by asking participants to tap their feet to the tones. Experiment 3 further increased motor load of the primary task by increasing its speed and having participants tracking with their non-dominant hand. The results show that dual-task interference can be moderated by secondary task conditions that match the structure of the primary task. Therefore our results support proposals of task integration in continuous tracking paradigms. We conclude that multi-tasking is not always detrimental for motor learning but can be facilitated through task-integration. PMID:28360878

  10. Task Integration Facilitates Multitasking.

    PubMed

    de Oliveira, Rita F; Raab, Markus; Hegele, Mathias; Schorer, Jörg

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate multi-task integration in a continuous tracking task. We were particularly interested in how manipulating task structure in a dual-task situation affects learning of a constant segment embedded in a pursuit-tracking task. Importantly, we examined if dual-task effects could be attributed to task integration by varying the structural similarity and difficulty of the primary and secondary tasks. In Experiment 1 participants performed a pursuit tracking task while counting high-pitched tones and ignoring low-pitched tones. The tones were either presented randomly or structurally 250 ms before each tracking turn. Experiment 2 increased the motor load of the secondary tasks by asking participants to tap their feet to the tones. Experiment 3 further increased motor load of the primary task by increasing its speed and having participants tracking with their non-dominant hand. The results show that dual-task interference can be moderated by secondary task conditions that match the structure of the primary task. Therefore our results support proposals of task integration in continuous tracking paradigms. We conclude that multi-tasking is not always detrimental for motor learning but can be facilitated through task-integration.

  11. A study for systematic errors of the GLA forecast model in tropical regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Tsing-Chang; Baker, Wayman E.; Pfaendtner, James; Corrigan, Martin

    1988-01-01

    From the sensitivity studies performed with the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) analysis/forecast system, it was revealed that the forecast errors in the tropics affect the ability to forecast midlatitude weather in some cases. Apparently, the forecast errors occurring in the tropics can propagate to midlatitudes. Therefore, the systematic error analysis of the GLA forecast system becomes a necessary step in improving the model's forecast performance. The major effort of this study is to examine the possible impact of the hydrological-cycle forecast error on dynamical fields in the GLA forecast system.

  12. Objective Lightning Probability Forecasts for East-Central Florida Airports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crawford, Winfred C.

    2013-01-01

    The forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL, (NWS MLB) identified a need to make more accurate lightning forecasts to help alleviate delays due to thunderstorms in the vicinity of several commercial airports in central Florida at which they are responsible for issuing terminal aerodrome forecasts. Such forecasts would also provide safer ground operations around terminals, and would be of value to Center Weather Service Units serving air traffic controllers in Florida. To improve the forecast, the AMU was tasked to develop an objective lightning probability forecast tool for the airports using data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The resulting forecast tool is similar to that developed by the AMU to support space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for use by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in previous tasks (Lambert and Wheeler 2005, Lambert 2007). The lightning probability forecasts are valid for the time periods and areas needed by the NWS MLB forecasters in the warm season months, defined in this task as May-September.

  13. Inhibition of GABA synthesis in the prefrontal cortex increases locomotor activity but does not affect attention in the 5-choice serial reaction time task.

    PubMed

    Asinof, Samuel K; Paine, Tracie A

    2013-02-01

    Attention deficits are a core cognitive symptom of schizophrenia; the neuropathology underlying these deficits is not known. Attention is regulated, at least in part, by the prefrontal cortex (PFC), a brain area in which pathology of γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) neurons has been consistently observed in post-mortem analysis of the brains of people with schizophrenia. Specifically, expression of the 67-kD isoform of the GABA synthesis enzyme glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD67) is reduced in parvalbumin-containing fast-spiking GABA interneurons. Thus it is hypothesized that reduced cortical GABA synthesis and release may contribute to the attention deficits in schizophrenia. Here the effect of reducing cortical GABA synthesis with l-allylglycine (LAG) on attention was tested using three different versions of the 5-choice serial reaction time task (5CSRTT). Because 5CSRTT performance can be affected by locomotor activity, we also measured this behavior in an open field. Finally, the expression of Fos protein was used as an indirect measure of reduced GABA synthesis. Intra-cortical LAG (10 μg/0.5 μl/side) infusions increased Fos expression and resulted in hyperactivity in the open field. Intra-cortical LAG infusions did not affect attention in any version of the 5CSRTT. These results suggest that a general decrease in GABA synthesis is not sufficient to cause attention deficits. It remains to be tested whether a selective decrease in GABA synthesis in parvalbumin-containing GABA neurons could cause attention deficits. Decreased cortical GABA synthesis did increase locomotor activity; this may reflect the positive symptoms of schizophrenia.

  14. How do video-based demonstration assessment tasks affect problem-solving process, test anxiety, chemistry anxiety and achievement in general chemistry students?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terrell, Rosalind Stephanie

    2001-12-01

    Because paper-and-pencil testing provides limited knowledge about what students know about chemical phenomena, we have developed video-based demonstrations to broaden measurement of student learning. For example, students might be shown a video demonstrating equilibrium shifts. Two methods for viewing equilibrium shifts are changing the concentration of the reactants and changing the temperature of the system. The students are required to combine the data collected from the video and their knowledge of chemistry to determine which way the equilibrium shifts. Video-based demonstrations are important techniques for measuring student learning because they require students to apply conceptual knowledge learned in class to a specific chemical problem. This study explores how video-based demonstration assessment tasks affect problem-solving processes, test anxiety, chemistry anxiety and achievement in general chemistry students. Several instruments were used to determine students' knowledge about chemistry, students' test and chemistry anxiety before and after treatment. Think-aloud interviews were conducted to determine students' problem-solving processes after treatment. The treatment group was compared to a control group and a group watching video demonstrations. After treatment students' anxiety increased and achievement decreased. There were also no significant differences found in students' problem-solving processes following treatment. These negative findings may be attributed to several factors that will be explored in this study.

  15. Seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission, Florida.

    PubMed

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Day, Jonathan F; Stieglitz, Marc; Zebiak, Stephen; Cane, Mark

    2004-05-01

    Disease transmission forecasts can help minimize human and domestic animal health risks by indicating where disease control and prevention efforts should be focused. For disease systems in which weather-related variables affect pathogen proliferation, dispersal, or transmission, the potential for disease forecasting exists. We present a seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission in Indian River County, Florida. We derive an empiric relationship between modeled land surface wetness and levels of SLEV transmission in humans. We then use these data to forecast SLEV transmission with a seasonal lead. Forecast skill is demonstrated, and a real-time seasonal forecast of epidemic SLEV transmission is presented. This study demonstrates how weather and climate forecast skill-verification analyses may be applied to test the predictability of an empiric disease forecast model.

  16. How to Support a One-Handed Economist: The Role of Modalisation in Economic Forecasting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donohue, James P.

    2006-01-01

    Economic forecasting in the world of international finance confronts economists with challenging cross-cultural writing tasks. Producing forecasts in English which convey confidence and credibility entails an understanding of linguistic conventions which typify the genre. A typical linguistic feature of commercial economic forecasts produced by…

  17. Physician supply forecast: better than peering in a crystal ball?

    PubMed Central

    Roberfroid, Dominique; Leonard, Christian; Stordeur, Sabine

    2009-01-01

    Background Anticipating physician supply to tackle future health challenges is a crucial but complex task for policy planners. A number of forecasting tools are available, but the methods, advantages and shortcomings of such tools are not straightforward and not always well appraised. Therefore this paper had two objectives: to present a typology of existing forecasting approaches and to analyse the methodology-related issues. Methods A literature review was carried out in electronic databases Medline-Ovid, Embase and ERIC. Concrete examples of planning experiences in various countries were analysed. Results Four main forecasting approaches were identified. The supply projection approach defines the necessary inflow to maintain or to reach in the future an arbitrary predefined level of service offer. The demand-based approach estimates the quantity of health care services used by the population in the future to project physician requirements. The needs-based approach involves defining and predicting health care deficits so that they can be addressed by an adequate workforce. Benchmarking health systems with similar populations and health profiles is the last approach. These different methods can be combined to perform a gap analysis. The methodological challenges of such projections are numerous: most often static models are used and their uncertainty is not assessed; valid and comprehensive data to feed into the models are often lacking; and a rapidly evolving environment affects the likelihood of projection scenarios. As a result, the internal and external validity of the projections included in our review appeared limited. Conclusion There is no single accepted approach to forecasting physician requirements. The value of projections lies in their utility in identifying the current and emerging trends to which policy-makers need to respond. A genuine gap analysis, an effective monitoring of key parameters and comprehensive workforce planning are key elements to

  18. Tsunami Forecast: Connecting Science with Warning Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Titov, V. V.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunami modeling capability had been rapidly developing even before the watershed event of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami. During 1990-2000, the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, the tsunami scientific community took on the difficult task of developing the modeling capability that would provide accuracy needed for long-term tsunami forecast — tsunami hazard maps. After exhaustive field, laboratory and modeling efforts by the international scientific community, the modeling capability has been achieved with accuracy deemed sufficient for operational use. Several real-time model forecast tools started to be used at TWCs in the US and Japan. In parallel, the observational component of tsunami warning systems had been improving, including updated existing seismic and coastal sea-level stations array. New early detection and measurement system (DART) has been developed specifically for tsunami forecast applications. The 2004 Sumatra tsunami has triggered the efforts of intensive implementation of science results into operational tsunami warning capabilities. At present, several tsunami forecast systems, based on various modeling and detection capabilities, are operational. Since 2004, over 40 tsunamis, including the 2011 Japanese tsunami, provided real-time tests for the tsunami forecast system capabilities. Preliminary assessment of tsunami forecast performance will be presented based on the analysis of the U.S. operational tsunami inundation forecast. Assessing forecast performance is important to evaluate the needs for improvement and further research. Baseline of the tsunami forecast skills has now been established and will be presented based on the data from the tsunamis during the decade. Future improvements and future challenges will also be discussed.

  19. GALE improves snow forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scientific results from an intensive study of winter storms on the U.S. East Coast last year contributed to improved weather forecasts of two successive snowstorms that virtually closed down Washington, D.C., for several days in January 1987.In the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE) field project, scientists took detailed measurements simultaneously from the atmosphere and the ocean to study how these features interact at various stages of an East Coast winter storm, according to project director Richard Dirks, who is with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo. “It's interesting that we actually had four storms [in the GALE study] that were of similar intensity to the two East Coast storms” in January 1987, Dirks said. “However, last year the temperatures were warmer, and the storm tracks were located somewhat further offshore and therefore did not significantly affect the northeast corridor with heavy snows.”

  20. Stochastic demographic forecasting.

    PubMed

    Lee, R D

    1992-11-01

    "This paper describes a particular approach to stochastic population forecasting, which is implemented for the U.S.A. through 2065. Statistical time series methods are combined with demographic models to produce plausible long run forecasts of vital rates, with probability distributions. The resulting mortality forecasts imply gains in future life expectancy that are roughly twice as large as those forecast by the Office of the Social Security Actuary.... Resulting stochastic forecasts of the elderly population, elderly dependency ratios, and payroll tax rates for health, education and pensions are presented."

  1. Forecast-skill-based simulation of streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Tongtiegang; Zhao, Jianshi

    2014-09-01

    Streamflow forecasts are updated periodically in real time, thereby facilitating forecast evolution. This study proposes a forecast-skill-based model of forecast evolution that is able to simulate dynamically updated streamflow forecasts. The proposed model applies stochastic models that deal with streamflow variability to generate streamflow scenarios, which represent cases without forecast skill of future streamflow. The model then employs a coefficient of prediction to determine forecast skill and to quantify the streamflow variability ratio explained by the forecast. By updating the coefficients of prediction periodically, the model efficiently captures the evolution of streamflow forecast. Simulated forecast uncertainty increases with increasing lead time; and simulated uncertainty during a specific future period decreases over time. We combine the statistical model with an optimization model and design a hypothetical case study of reservoir operation. The results indicate the significance of forecast skill in forecast-based reservoir operation. Shortage index reduces as forecast skill increases and ensemble forecast outperforms deterministic forecast at a similar forecast skill level. Moreover, an effective forecast horizon exists beyond which more forecast information does not contribute to reservoir operation and higher forecast skill results in longer effective forecast horizon. The results illustrate that the statistical model is efficient in simulating forecast evolution and facilitates analysis of forecast-based decision making.

  2. Seasonal streamflow forecasting with the global hydrological forecasting system FEWS-World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Van Beek, L. P.; Winsemius, H.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2011-12-01

    The year-to-year variability of river discharge brings about risks and opportunities in water resources management. Reliable hydrological forecasts and effective communication allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. For these regions, a global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value. FEWS-World is developed for this purpose. The system incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB and delivers streamflow forecasts on a global scale. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value is its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The results will be disseminated on the internet to provide valuable information for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The preliminary skill assessment of PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing flow extremes is carried out for a selection of 20 large rivers of the world. The model is run for a historical period, with a meteorological forcing data set based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, and the ERA-40 reanalysis of ECMWF. Model skill in reproducing monthly anomalies as well as floods and droughts is assessed by applying verification measures developed for deterministic meteorological forecasts. The results of this preliminary analysis shows that even where the simulated hydrographs are biased, higher skills can be attained in reproducing monthly

  3. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  4. Wind speed forecasting for wind energy applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hong

    With more wind energy being integrated into our grid systems, forecasting wind energy has become a necessity for all market participants. Recognizing the market demands, a physical approach to site-specific hub-height wind speed forecasting system has been developed. This system is driven by the outputs from the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. A simple interpolation approach benchmarks the forecasting accuracy inherited from GEM. Local, site specific winds are affected on a local scale by a variety of factors including representation of the land surface and local boundary-layer process over heterogeneous terrain which have been a continuing challenge in NWP models like GEM with typical horizontal resolution of order 15-km. In order to resolve these small scale effects, a wind energy industry standard model, WAsP, is coupled with GEM to improve the forecast. Coupling the WAsP model with GEM improves the overall forecasts, but remains unsatisfactory for forecasting winds with abrupt surface condition changes. Subsequently in this study, a new coupler that uses a 2-D RANS model of boundary-layer flow over surface condition changes with improved physics has been developed to further improve the forecasts when winds coming from a water surface to land experience abrupt changes in surface conditions. It has been demonstrated that using vertically averaged wind speeds to represent geostrophic winds for input into the micro-scale models could reduce forecast errors. The hub-height wind speed forecasts could be further improved using a linear MOS approach. The forecasting system has been evaluated, using a wind energy standard evaluation matrix, against data from an 80-m mast located near the north shore of Lake Erie. Coupling with GEM-LAM and a power conversion model using a theoretical power curve have also been investigated. For hub-height wind speeds GEM appears to perform better with a 15-Ian grid than the high resolution GEM-2.5Ian version at the

  5. Forecasting depression in bipolar disorder.

    PubMed

    Moore, Paul J; Little, Max A; McSharry, Patrick E; Geddes, John R; Goodwin, Guy M

    2012-10-01

    Bipolar disorder is characterized by recurrent episodes of mania and depression and affects about 1% of the adult population. The condition can have a major impact on an individual's ability to function and is associated with a long-term risk of suicide. In this paper, we report on the use of self-rated mood data to forecast the next week's depression ratings. The data used in the study have been collected using SMS text messaging and comprises one time series of approximately weekly mood ratings for each patient. We find a wide variation between series: some exhibit a large change in mean over the monitored period and there is a variation in correlation structure. Almost half of the time series are forecast better by unconditional mean than by persistence. Two methods are employed for forecasting: exponential smoothing and Gaussian process regression. Neither approach gives an improvement over a persistence baseline. We conclude that the depression time series from patients with bipolar disorder are very heterogeneous and that this constrains the accuracy of automated mood forecasting across the set of patients. However, the dataset is a valuable resource and work remains to be done that might result in clinically useful information and tools.

  6. Multispectral satellite training for inexperienced Navy forecasters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuciauskas, Arunas P.; Lee, Thomas F.; Durkee, Philip A.; Ledesma, Roy

    2004-10-01

    Recent advancements of meteorology and oceanography (METOC) satellite products has resulted from a surge in computing resources and expanded communications via the Internet. Greater tactical demands in military operations are placed on Navy and Marine METOC personnel to provide better atmospheric depictions and forecasts in support of helicopter, fighter jet and ground troop operations, as was experienced in Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom. Unfortunately, US military weather forecasters are often limited in their abilities to provide state of the art products and forecasts. One reason for these inefficiencies are that oftentimes, daily forecasting tasks are left to non-commissioned personnel (e.g., AG"s and ET"s) who receive little or no classroom training in this area, nor are there continuing education/training available. METOC forecast centers vary greatly and might not have access to the appropriate information base to answer ongoing questions. Additionally, the typical tour of duty at a particular forecast center is 2 years, resulting in a stressful environment to bring new forecasters up to speed in demanding forecast operations. The result is that the user is often confined to image looping and basic image enhancements to convey the general environmental conditions over the region of interest. To facilitate the learning process, the Naval Research Laboratory and the Naval Postgraduate School have developed a 3 day intensive laboratory and lecture course in satellite remote sensing, focusing on topics vital to military operations such as smoke and fire detection, coastal maritime layer analysis, snow, fog, haze, tropical cyclones, hazardous wind conditions, etc. A wealth of satellite data is provided from MODIS, AVHRR, DMSP and Geostationary satellite data. Background satellite remote sensing topics such as radiative transfer theory is also presented. This report presents a sample of the material used within the training.

  7. An alternate approach to ensemble ENSO forecast spread: Application to the 2014 forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larson, Sarah M.; Kirtman, Ben P.

    2015-11-01

    Evaluating the 2014 El Niño forecast as a "bust" may be tapping into a bigger issue, namely that forecast "overconfidence" from single-model ensembles could affect the retrospective assessment of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. The present study proposes a new approach to quantifying an "expected" spread and uncertainty from noise-driven processes and supplementing these measures with actual ENSO forecasts. Expanding on a previously developed coupled model framework that isolates noise-driven ENSO-like errors, an experimental design is implemented to generate an expected December Niño-3.4 spread from March initial condition sea surface temperature errors that have similar structure to the 2014 and 2015 observed. Results reveal that the 2014 ENSO forecast falls within the expected uncertainty generated by ENSO-independent, forecast-independent, noise-driven errors.

  8. Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 8, Germany's War on the Soviet Union, 1941-45. I. Long-range Weather Forecasts for 1941-42 and Climatological Studies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neumann, J.; Flohn, H.

    1987-06-01

    A brief account is given of Baur's long-range weather forecast prepared in the autumn of 1941 for the 1941-42 winter in Eastern Europe. Baur's forecast called for a normal' or mild winter but the winter turned out to be one of the most severe winters on record. The cold, the icy winds and blizzards gravely hit the German armies and coincided with the first major Soviet counteroffensive of the war. A Soviet weather forecast for January 1942, also called for a mild month.A review of the climatological studies prepared for the war indicates that the occurrence of mud periods of considerable intensity in autumn was not considered. The autumn 1941 mud period immobilized most of the German armies for a month and caused the attempted final German assault on Moscow to take place in an early and severe winter.Hitter would not tolerate the mention of winter and still less the mention of the retreat of Napoleon's Grande Armée from Russia.The support given by Soviet meteorologists and hydrologists to the Red Army is sketched. For the 1941-42 winter the more-important short- to medium-range forecasts included a forecast for 7 November (anniversary of the October Revolution) at Moscow and a forecast for the start of Zhukov's counteroffensive in the Battle of Moscow in December 1941.

  9. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  10. Integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Mosimann, Markus; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    A key aspect of disaster prevention is flood discharge forecasting which is used for early warning and therefore as a decision support for intervention forces. Hereby, the phase between the issued forecast and the time when the expected flood occurs is crucial for an optimal planning of the intervention. Typically, river discharge forecasts cover the regional level only, i.e. larger catchments. However, it is important to note that these forecasts are not useable directly for specific target groups on local level because these forecasts say nothing about the consequences of the predicted flood in terms of affected areas, number of exposed residents and houses. For this, on one hand simulations of the flooding processes and on the other hand data of vulnerable objects are needed. Furthermore, flood modelling in a high spatial and temporal resolution is required for robust flood loss estimation. This is a resource-intensive task from a computing time point of view. Therefore, in real-time applications flood modelling in 2D is not suited. Thus, forecasting flood losses in the short-term (6h-24h in advance) requires a different approach. Here, we propose a method to downscale the river discharge forecast to a spatially-explicit flood loss forecast. The principal procedure is to generate as many flood scenarios as needed in advance to represent the flooded areas for all possible flood hydrographs, e.g. very high peak discharges of short duration vs. high peak discharges with high volumes. For this, synthetic flood hydrographs were derived from the hydrologic time series. Then, the flooded areas of each scenario were modelled with a 2D flood simulation model. All scenarios were intersected with the dataset of vulnerable objects, in our case residential, agricultural and industrial buildings with information about the number of residents, the object-specific vulnerability, and the monetary value of the objects. This dataset was prepared by a data-mining approach. For each

  11. Future freeze forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bartholic, J. F.; Sutherland, R. A.

    1979-01-01

    Real time GOES thermal data acquisition, an energy balance minimum temperature prediction model and a statistical model are incorporated into a minicomputer system. These components make up the operational "Satellite Freeze Forecast System" being used to aid NOAA, NWS forecasters in developing their freeze forecasts. The general concept of the system is presented in this paper. Specific detailed aspects of the system can be found in the reference cited.

  12. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  13. Weather assessment and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

  14. Supplier Short Term Load Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression and Exogenous Input

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matijaš, Marin; Vukićcević, Milan; Krajcar, Slavko

    2011-09-01

    In power systems, task of load forecasting is important for keeping equilibrium between production and consumption. With liberalization of electricity markets, task of load forecasting changed because each market participant has to forecast their own load. Consumption of end-consumers is stochastic in nature. Due to competition, suppliers are not in a position to transfer their costs to end-consumers; therefore it is essential to keep forecasting error as low as possible. Numerous papers are investigating load forecasting from the perspective of the grid or production planning. We research forecasting models from the perspective of a supplier. In this paper, we investigate different combinations of exogenous input on the simulated supplier loads and show that using points of delivery as a feature for Support Vector Regression leads to lower forecasting error, while adding customer number in different datasets does the opposite.

  15. The Differential Involvement of the Prelimbic and Infralimbic Cortices in Response Conflict Affects Behavioral Flexibility in Rats Trained in a New Automated Strategy-Switching Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oualian, Catherine; Gisquet-Verrier, Pascale

    2010-01-01

    To assess the role of the prelimbic (PL) and infralimbic (IL) cortices in mediating strategy switching, rats were trained in a new automated task in a Y-maze allowing a careful analysis of rats' behavior. In this situation, rats can only use two egocentric (Right, Left) and two visual (Light, Dark) strategies. In the first experiment, rats with…

  16. Modelling the Factors that Affect Individuals' Utilisation of Online Learning Systems: An Empirical Study Combining the Task Technology Fit Model with the Theory of Planned Behaviour

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yu, Tai-Kuei; Yu, Tai-Yi

    2010-01-01

    Understanding learners' behaviour, perceptions and influence in terms of learner performance is crucial to predict the use of electronic learning systems. By integrating the task-technology fit (TTF) model and the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), this paper investigates the online learning utilisation of Taiwanese students. This paper provides a…

  17. Computer technology forecasting at the National Laboratories

    SciTech Connect

    Peskin, A M

    1980-01-01

    The DOE Office of ADP Management organized a group of scientists and computer professionals, mostly from their own national laboratories, to prepare an annually updated technology forecast to accompany the Department's five-year ADP Plan. The activities of the task force were originally reported in an informal presentation made at the ACM Conference in 1978. This presentation represents an update of that report. It also deals with the process of applying the results obtained at a particular computing center, Brookhaven National Laboratory. Computer technology forecasting is a difficult and hazardous endeavor, but it can reap considerable advantage. The forecast performed on an industry-wide basis can be applied to the particular needs of a given installation, and thus give installation managers considerable guidance in planning. A beneficial side effect of this process is that it forces installation managers, who might otherwise tend to preoccupy themselves with immediate problems, to focus on longer term goals and means to their ends. (RWR)

  18. Forecasting Future Trends in Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collazo, Andres; And Others

    1977-01-01

    Describes a forecasting model sensitive to the major factors influencing educational outcomes, presents several forecasts based on alternative sets of assumptions, and discusses the implications of these forecasts, including ways to subvert them. (Author/JG)

  19. Flood forecasting for River Mekong with data-based models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shahzad, Khurram M.; Plate, Erich J.

    2014-09-01

    In many regions of the world, the task of flood forecasting is made difficult because only a limited database is available for generating a suitable forecast model. This paper demonstrates that in such cases parsimonious data-based hydrological models for flood forecasting can be developed if the special conditions of climate and topography are used to advantage. As an example, the middle reach of River Mekong in South East Asia is considered, where a database of discharges from seven gaging stations on the river and 31 rainfall stations on the subcatchments between gaging stations is available for model calibration. Special conditions existing for River Mekong are identified and used in developing first a network connecting all discharge gages and then models for forecasting discharge increments between gaging stations. Our final forecast model (Model 3) is a linear combination of two structurally different basic models: a model (Model 1) using linear regressions for forecasting discharge increments, and a model (Model 2) using rainfall-runoff models. Although the model based on linear regressions works reasonably well for short times, better results are obtained with rainfall-runoff modeling. However, forecast accuracy of Model 2 is limited by the quality of rainfall forecasts. For best results, both models are combined by taking weighted averages to form Model 3. Model quality is assessed by means of both persistence index PI and standard deviation of forecast error.

  20. Using a Software Tool in Forecasting: a Case Study of Sales Forecasting Taking into Account Data Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fabianová, Jana; Kačmáry, Peter; Molnár, Vieroslav; Michalik, Peter

    2016-10-01

    Forecasting is one of the logistics activities and a sales forecast is the starting point for the elaboration of business plans. Forecast accuracy affects the business outcomes and ultimately may significantly affect the economic stability of the company. The accuracy of the prediction depends on the suitability of the use of forecasting methods, experience, quality of input data, time period and other factors. The input data are usually not deterministic but they are often of random nature. They are affected by uncertainties of the market environment, and many other factors. Taking into account the input data uncertainty, the forecast error can by reduced. This article deals with the use of the software tool for incorporating data uncertainty into forecasting. Proposals are presented of a forecasting approach and simulation of the impact of uncertain input parameters to the target forecasted value by this case study model. The statistical analysis and risk analysis of the forecast results is carried out including sensitivity analysis and variables impact analysis.

  1. Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmahon, J.

    1972-01-01

    Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports.

  2. Does language dominance affect cognitive performance in bilinguals? Lifespan evidence from preschoolers through older adults on card sorting, Simon, and metalinguistic tasks

    PubMed Central

    Gathercole, Virginia C. Mueller; Thomas, Enlli M.; Kennedy, Ivan; Prys, Cynog; Young, Nia; Viñas Guasch, Nestor; Roberts, Emily J.; Hughes, Emma K.; Jones, Leah

    2014-01-01

    This study explores the extent to which a bilingual advantage can be observed for three tasks in an established population of fully fluent bilinguals from childhood through adulthood. Welsh-English simultaneous and early sequential bilinguals, as well as English monolinguals, aged 3 years through older adults, were tested on three sets of cognitive and executive function tasks. Bilinguals were Welsh-dominant, balanced, or English-dominant, with only Welsh, Welsh and English, or only English at home. Card sorting, Simon, and a metalinguistic judgment task (650, 557, and 354 participants, respectively) reveal little support for a bilingual advantage, either in relation to control or globally. Primarily there is no difference in performance across groups, but there is occasionally better performance by monolinguals or persons dominant in the language being tested, and in one case-in one condition and in one age group-lower performance by the monolinguals. The lack of evidence for a bilingual advantage in these simultaneous and early sequential bilinguals suggests the need for much closer scrutiny of what type of bilingual might demonstrate the reported effects, under what conditions, and why. PMID:24550853

  3. Forecasting decadal and shorter time-scale solar cycle features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dikpati, Mausumi

    2016-07-01

    Solar energetic particles and magnetic fields reach the Earth through the interplanetary medium and affect it in various ways, producing beautiful aurorae, but also electrical blackouts and damage to our technology-dependent economy. The root of energetic solar outputs is the solar activity cycle, which is most likely caused by dynamo processes inside the Sun. It is a formidable task to accurately predict the amplitude, onset and peak timings of a solar cycle. After reviewing all solar cycle prediction methods, including empirical as well as physical model-based schemes, I will describe what we have learned from both validation and nonvalidation of cycle 24 forecasts, and how to refine the model-based schemes for upcoming cycle 25 forecasts. Recent observations indicate that within a solar cycle there are shorter time-scale 'space weather' features, such as bursts of various forms of activity with approximately one year periodicity. I will demonstrate how global tachocline dynamics could play a crucial role in producing such space weather. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

  4. Forecasting gaming revenues in Clark County, Nevada: Issues and methods

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, B.K.; Bando, A.

    1992-07-01

    This paper describes the Western Area Gaming and Economic Response Simulator (WAGERS), a forecasting model that emphasizes the role of the gaming industry in Clark County, Nevada. Is is designed to generate forecasts of gaming revenues in Clark County, whose regional economy is dominated by the gaming industry. The model is meant to forecast Clark County gaming revenues and identifies the exogenous variables that affect gaming revenues. It will provide baseline forecasts of Clark County gaming revenues in order to assess changes in gaming-related economic activity resulting from changes in regional economic activity and tourism.

  5. Forecasting gaming revenues in Clark County, Nevada: Issues and methods

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, B.K.; Bando, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the Western Area Gaming and Economic Response Simulator (WAGERS), a forecasting model that emphasizes the role of the gaming industry in Clark County, Nevada. Is is designed to generate forecasts of gaming revenues in Clark County, whose regional economy is dominated by the gaming industry. The model is meant to forecast Clark County gaming revenues and identifies the exogenous variables that affect gaming revenues. It will provide baseline forecasts of Clark County gaming revenues in order to assess changes in gaming-related economic activity resulting from changes in regional economic activity and tourism.

  6. Forecast of iceberg ensemble drift

    SciTech Connect

    El-Tahan, M.S.; El-Tahan, H.W.; Venkatesh, S.

    1983-05-01

    The objectives of the study are to gain a better understanding of the characteristics of iceberg motion and the factors controlling iceberg drift, and to develop an iceberg ensemble drift forecast system to be operated by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service. An extensive review of field and theoretical studies on iceberg behaviour, and the factors controlling iceberg motion has been carried out. Long term and short term behaviour of icebergs are critically examined. A quantitative assessment of the effects of the factors controlling iceberg motion is presented. The study indicated that wind and currents are the primary driving forces. Coriolis Force and ocean surface slope also have significant effects. As for waves, only the higher waves have a significant effect. Iceberg drift is also affected by iceberg size characteristics. Based on the findings of the study a comprehensive computerized forecast system to predict the drift of iceberg ensembles off Canada's east coast has been designed. The expected accuracy of the forecast system is discussed and recommendations are made for future improvements to the system.

  7. Profitability of Using Forecasting Techniques in the Commodities Market

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-12-01

    PROJECT TASK IŘWORK UNIT ELEMENT NO NO NO ACCESSION NO. I - 1 rITLE (Include Security CIfafw cation) PROFITABILITY OF USING FORECASTING TECHNIQUES IN THE...that of the ARIMA models. By incorporating the ARIMA forecasts with the futures prices, it was concluded that a more profitable strategy for...SECURITY (:LASSI’CA ION f 7115 PA ll otrer edtzons are obsolete I Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Profitability of Using

  8. The VMAT-2 Inhibitor Tetrabenazine Affects Effort-Related Decision Making in a Progressive Ratio/Chow Feeding Choice Task: Reversal with Antidepressant Drugs

    PubMed Central

    Randall, Patrick A.; Lee, Christie A.; Nunes, Eric J.; Yohn, Samantha E.; Nowak, Victoria; Khan, Bilal; Shah, Priya; Pandit, Saagar; Vemuri, V. Kiran; Makriyannis, Alex; Baqi, Younis; Müller, Christa E.; Correa, Merce; Salamone, John D.

    2014-01-01

    Behavioral activation is a fundamental feature of motivation, and organisms frequently make effort-related decisions based upon evaluations of reinforcement value and response costs. Furthermore, people with major depression and other disorders often show anergia, psychomotor retardation, fatigue, and alterations in effort-related decision making. Tasks measuring effort-based decision making can be used as animal models of the motivational symptoms of depression, and the present studies characterized the effort-related effects of the vesicular monoamine transport (VMAT-2) inhibitor tetrabenazine. Tetrabenazine induces depressive symptoms in humans, and also preferentially depletes dopamine (DA). Rats were assessed using a concurrent progressive ratio (PROG)/chow feeding task, in which they can either lever press on a PROG schedule for preferred high-carbohydrate food, or approach and consume a less-preferred lab chow that is freely available in the chamber. Previous work has shown that the DA antagonist haloperidol reduced PROG work output on this task, but did not reduce chow intake, effects that differed substantially from those of reinforcer devaluation or appetite suppressant drugs. The present work demonstrated that tetrabenazine produced an effort-related shift in responding on the PROG/chow procedure, reducing lever presses, highest ratio achieved and time spent responding, but not reducing chow intake. Similar effects were produced by administration of the subtype selective DA antagonists ecopipam (D1) and eticlopride (D2), but not by the cannabinoid CB1 receptor neutral antagonist and putative appetite suppressant AM 4413, which suppressed both lever pressing and chow intake. The adenosine A2A antagonist MSX-3, the antidepressant and catecholamine uptake inhibitor bupropion, and the MAO-B inhibitor deprenyl, all reversed the impairments induced by tetrabenazine. This work demonstrates the potential utility of the PROG/chow procedure as a rodent model of

  9. The VMAT-2 inhibitor tetrabenazine affects effort-related decision making in a progressive ratio/chow feeding choice task: reversal with antidepressant drugs.

    PubMed

    Randall, Patrick A; Lee, Christie A; Nunes, Eric J; Yohn, Samantha E; Nowak, Victoria; Khan, Bilal; Shah, Priya; Pandit, Saagar; Vemuri, V Kiran; Makriyannis, Alex; Baqi, Younis; Müller, Christa E; Correa, Merce; Salamone, John D

    2014-01-01

    Behavioral activation is a fundamental feature of motivation, and organisms frequently make effort-related decisions based upon evaluations of reinforcement value and response costs. Furthermore, people with major depression and other disorders often show anergia, psychomotor retardation, fatigue, and alterations in effort-related decision making. Tasks measuring effort-based decision making can be used as animal models of the motivational symptoms of depression, and the present studies characterized the effort-related effects of the vesicular monoamine transport (VMAT-2) inhibitor tetrabenazine. Tetrabenazine induces depressive symptoms in humans, and also preferentially depletes dopamine (DA). Rats were assessed using a concurrent progressive ratio (PROG)/chow feeding task, in which they can either lever press on a PROG schedule for preferred high-carbohydrate food, or approach and consume a less-preferred lab chow that is freely available in the chamber. Previous work has shown that the DA antagonist haloperidol reduced PROG work output on this task, but did not reduce chow intake, effects that differed substantially from those of reinforcer devaluation or appetite suppressant drugs. The present work demonstrated that tetrabenazine produced an effort-related shift in responding on the PROG/chow procedure, reducing lever presses, highest ratio achieved and time spent responding, but not reducing chow intake. Similar effects were produced by administration of the subtype selective DA antagonists ecopipam (D1) and eticlopride (D2), but not by the cannabinoid CB1 receptor neutral antagonist and putative appetite suppressant AM 4413, which suppressed both lever pressing and chow intake. The adenosine A2A antagonist MSX-3, the antidepressant and catecholamine uptake inhibitor bupropion, and the MAO-B inhibitor deprenyl, all reversed the impairments induced by tetrabenazine. This work demonstrates the potential utility of the PROG/chow procedure as a rodent model of

  10. Validation of Seasonal Forecast of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, Sukanta Kumar; Deb, Sanjib Kumar; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, Pradip Kumar

    2015-06-01

    The experimental seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during June through September using Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 3 has been carried out at the Space Applications Centre Ahmedabad since 2009. The forecasts, based on a number of ensemble members (ten minimum) of CAM, are generated in several phases and updated on regular basis. On completion of 5 years of experimental seasonal forecasts in operational mode, it is required that the overall validation or correctness of the forecast system is quantified and that the scope is assessed for further improvements of the forecast over time, if any. The ensemble model climatology generated by a set of 20 identical CAM simulations is considered as the model control simulation. The performance of the forecast has been evaluated by assuming the control simulation as the model reference. The forecast improvement factor shows positive improvements, with higher values for the recent forecasted years as compared to the control experiment over the Indian landmass. The Taylor diagram representation of the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), standard deviation and centered root mean square difference has been used to demonstrate the best PCC, in the order of 0.74-0.79, recorded for the seasonal forecast made during 2013. Further, the bias score of different phases of experiment revealed the fact that the ISM rainfall forecast is affected by overestimation in predicting the low rain-rate (less than 7 mm/day), but by underestimation in the medium and high rain-rate (higher than 11 mm/day). Overall, the analysis shows significant improvement of the ISM forecast over the last 5 years, viz. 2009-2013, due to several important modifications that have been implemented in the forecast system. The validation exercise has also pointed out a number of shortcomings in the forecast system; these will be addressed in the upcoming years of experiments to improve the quality of the ISM prediction.

  11. An Integrated Enrollment Forecast Model. IR Applications, Volume 15, January 18, 2008

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Chau-Kuang

    2008-01-01

    Enrollment forecasting is the central component of effective budget and program planning. The integrated enrollment forecast model is developed to achieve a better understanding of the variables affecting student enrollment and, ultimately, to perform accurate forecasts. The transfer function model of the autoregressive integrated moving average…

  12. Statistical evaluation of forecasts.

    PubMed

    Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

    2014-08-01

    Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

  13. Statistical evaluation of forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J.; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

    2014-08-01

    Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

  14. High versus low fat/sugar food affects the behavioral, but not the cortisol response of marmoset monkeys in a conditioned-place-preference task.

    PubMed

    Duarte, R B M; Patrono, E; Borges, A C; Tomaz, C; Ventura, R; Gasbarri, A; Puglisi-Allegra, S; Barros, M

    2015-02-01

    The effect of a high (chocolate) versus low fat/sugar (chow) food on a conditioned-place-preference (CPP) task was evaluated in marmoset monkeys. Anxiety-related behaviors and cortisol levels before and after the CPP task were also measured. Subjects were habituated to a two-compartment CPP box and then, on alternate days, had access to only one compartment during daily 15-min conditionings, for a total of 14 trials. Marmosets were provisioned with chocolate chips in the CC-paired compartment on odd-numbered trials and standard chow in the CW-paired compartment on even-numbered trials. They were then tested for preferring the CC-paired context after a 24-h interval. During the conditioning, a significantly greater amount (in kcal/trial) of chocolate was consumed than chow, yet the foraging pattern of both food types was similar. On the test trial, the time spent in the CC-paired context increased significantly compared to pre-CPP levels, yet this response was not readily predicted by baseline behavioral or cortisol levels. Also, the chocolate CPP response was positively correlated with foraging time, rather than the amount of calories consumed. The sudden absence of the food increased exploration, while the chocolate CPP effect was associated with vigilance - both anxiety-related behaviors in marmosets. This behavioral profile occurred regardless of any concomitant change or correlation with cortisol. Therefore, the high fat/sugar food was more prone to be overly consumed by the marmosets, to induce a CPP response and to lead to anxiety-related behavior in its absence.

  15. Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaake, J.; Demargne, J.; Hartman, R.; Mullusky, M.; Welles, E.; Wu, L.; Herr, H.; Fan, X.; Seo, D. J.

    2007-04-01

    A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of precipitation and temperature. This involves dividing the spatial forecast domain and total forecast period into a number of parts that are treated as separate forecast events. The spatial domain is divided into hydrologic sub-basins. The total forecast period is divided into time periods, one for each model time step. For each event archived values of forecasts and corresponding observations are used to model the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. The conditional distribution of observations for a given single-value forecast is used to represent the corresponding probability distribution of events that may occur for that forecast. This conditional forecast distribution subsequently is used to create ensemble members that vary in space and time using the "Schaake Shuffle" (Clark et al, 2004). The resulting ensemble members have the same space-time patterns as historical observations so that space-time joint relationships between events that have a significant effect on hydrological response tend to be preserved. Forecast uncertainty is space and time-scale dependent. For a given lead time to the beginning of the valid period of an event, forecast uncertainty depends on the length of the forecast valid time period and the spatial area to which the forecast applies. Although the "Schaake Shuffle" procedure, when applied to construct ensemble members from a time-series of single value forecasts, may preserve some of this scale dependency, it may not be sufficient without additional constraint. To account more fully for the time-dependent structure of forecast uncertainty, events for additional "aggregate" forecast periods are defined as accumulations of different "base" forecast periods. The generated ensemble members can be ingested by an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system to produce ensemble forecasts of streamflow and other hydrological variables that reflect

  16. Task Difficulty Differentially Affects Two Measures of Processing Load: The Pupil Response during Sentence Processing and Delayed Cued Recall of the Sentences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zekveld, Adriana A.; Festen, Joost M.; Kramer, Kramera

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: In this study, the authors assessed the influence of masking level (29% or 71% sentence perception) and test modality on the processing load during language perception as reflected by the pupil response. In addition, the authors administered a delayed cued stimulus recall test to examine whether processing load affected the encoding of…

  17. Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2010-01-01

    The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded

  18. An overview of health forecasting.

    PubMed

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2013-01-01

    Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.

  19. Earthquake Forecasting, Validation and Verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J.; Holliday, J.; Turcotte, D.; Donnellan, A.; Tiampo, K.; Klein, B.

    2009-05-01

    Techniques for earthquake forecasting are in development using both seismicity data mining methods, as well as numerical simulations. The former rely on the development of methods to recognize patterns in data, while the latter rely on the use of dynamical models that attempt to faithfully replicate the actual fault systems. Testing such forecasts is necessary not only to determine forecast quality, but also to improve forecasts. A large number of techniques to validate and verify forecasts have been developed for weather and financial applications. Many of these have been elaborated in public locations, including, for example, the URL as listed below. Typically, the goal is to test for forecast resolution, reliability and sharpness. A good forecast is characterized by consistency, quality and value. Most, if not all of these forecast verification procedures can be readily applied to earthquake forecasts as well. In this talk, we discuss both methods of forecasting, as well as validation and verification using a number of these standard methods. We show how these test methods might be useful for both fault-based forecasting, a group of forecast methods that includes the WGCEP and simulator-based renewal models, and grid-based forecasting, which includes the Relative Intensity, Pattern Informatics, and smoothed seismicity methods. We find that applying these standard methods of forecast verification is straightforward. Judgments about the quality of a given forecast method can often depend on the test applied, as well as on the preconceptions and biases of the persons conducting the tests.

  20. San Francisco Bay Area Cargo Forecast.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-06-01

    CHAlES IN SAY AREA AND PACIFIC COAST SHARES FOREIGN CONTAINER CAKRO Pacftic Coast Bay Area bil Total .1 Share of Total as Share of Ypar lted States...patterns and recent trends, and on evaluation of the key factors and events likely to affect future trade. Thus, it was both "past and forward looking...Bay Area Forecast The baseline, high, and low forecasts of Bay Area Trade Route 29 containerized cargo shown in Table 28 are based on evaluation of

  1. Proceedings: Eleventh forecasting symposium. Forecasting in a competitive electricity market

    SciTech Connect

    Vogt, T.; Ignelzi, P.

    1998-10-01

    EPRI`s Eleventh Forecasting Symposium: ``Forecasting in a Competitive Electricity Market`` was held in Arlington, Virginia, in November 1997. This proceedings documents the symposium`s wide variety of topics, ranging from very-short-term operations issues to mid-term market planning issues. Speakers described the forecasting practices of other industries, predicted forecasting directions in the electric power industry; related their experiences with new forecasting approaches; and suggested further enhancements to forecasting methods, tools, and data. The objectives of the symposium were to explore the expanding roles of forecasting in a competitive market, to exchange information about forecasting techniques under development, and to discuss the forecasting techniques currently used by the electric power industry in and outside the US and in other industries. The 30 papers are arranged under the following topical sections: restructuring and regulatory issues--implications for forecasting; forecasting experiences in other industries; operations-related forecasting; data warehousing and database marketing; forecasting and risk management; understanding and predicting market prices; forecasting methods for the new environment; predicting customer response; and symposium wrap-up.

  2. Intermittent Demand Forecasting in a Tertiary Pediatric Intensive Care Unit.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Chen-Yang; Chiang, Kuo-Liang; Chen, Meng-Yin

    2016-10-01

    Forecasts of the demand for medical supplies both directly and indirectly affect the operating costs and the quality of the care provided by health care institutions. Specifically, overestimating demand induces an inventory surplus, whereas underestimating demand possibly compromises patient safety. Uncertainty in forecasting the consumption of medical supplies generates intermittent demand events. The intermittent demand patterns for medical supplies are generally classified as lumpy, erratic, smooth, and slow-moving demand. This study was conducted with the purpose of advancing a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit's efforts to achieve a high level of accuracy in its forecasting of the demand for medical supplies. On this point, several demand forecasting methods were compared in terms of the forecast accuracy of each. The results confirm that applying Croston's method combined with a single exponential smoothing method yields the most accurate results for forecasting lumpy, erratic, and slow-moving demand, whereas the Simple Moving Average (SMA) method is the most suitable for forecasting smooth demand. In addition, when the classification of demand consumption patterns were combined with the demand forecasting models, the forecasting errors were minimized, indicating that this classification framework can play a role in improving patient safety and reducing inventory management costs in health care institutions.

  3. Task breakdown

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pavlich, Jane

    1990-01-01

    The topics concerning the Center for Space Construction (CSC) space construction breakdown structure are presented in viewgraph form. It is concluded that four components describe a task -- effecting, information gathering, analysis, and regulation; uncertainties effect the relative amount of information gathering and analysis that occurs; and that task timing requirements drive the 'location in time' of cognition.

  4. Exposure of baboons to combined 60 Hz electric and magnetic fields does not produce work stoppage or affect operant performance on a match-to-sample task

    SciTech Connect

    Orr, J.L.; Rogers, W.R.; Smith, H.D.

    1995-12-31

    The authors examined the effects of combined 60 Hz electric and magnetic field (EMF) exposure on performance of delayed match-to-sample (MTS) procedure involving the flash rate of a light as the stimulus. Six baboons (Papio cynocephalus) fully acquired the task; four others functioned accurately only when cued. All ten subjects were assigned to EMF-exposed or sham-exposed groups of five and were used to test for a work-stoppage effect that was previously observed with initial exposure to electric fields (EF) of 30 or 60 kV/m. Here, the authors report the results of two experiments, each consisting of 6 week preexposure, exposure, and postexposure periods. They found no evidence of work stoppage with fields of 6 kV/m and 50 {micro}T (0.5 G) or with 30 kV/m and 100 {micro}T (1.0 G). In neither experiment was there evidence of an adverse effect of 60 Hz EMF exposure on MTS performance.

  5. Space weather forecasting: Past, Present, Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanzerotti, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    There have been revolutionary advances in electrical technologies over the last 160 years. The historical record demonstrates that space weather processes have often provided surprises in the implementation and operation of many of these technologies. The historical record also demonstrates that as the complexity of systems increase, including their interconnectedness and interoperability, they can become more susceptible to space weather effects. An engineering goal, beginning during the decades following the 1859 Carrington event, has been to attempt to forecast solar-produced disturbances that could affect technical systems, be they long grounded conductor-based or radio-based or required for exploration, or the increasingly complex systems immersed in the space environment itself. Forecasting of space weather events involves both frontier measurements and models to address engineering requirements, and industrial and governmental policies that encourage and permit creativity and entrepreneurship. While analogies of space weather forecasting to terrestrial weather forecasting are frequently made, and while many of the analogies are valid, there are also important differences. This presentation will provide some historical perspectives on the forecast problem, a personal assessment of current status of several areas including important policy issues, and a look into the not-too-distant future.

  6. Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst-Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joslyn, Susan; Savelli, Sonia; Nadav-Greenberg, Limor

    2011-01-01

    Many weather forecast providers believe that forecast uncertainty in the form of the worst-case scenario would be useful for general public end users. We tested this suggestion in 4 studies using realistic weather-related decision tasks involving high winds and low temperatures. College undergraduates, given the statistical equivalent of the…

  7. Inefficient stimulus processing at encoding affects formation of high-order general representation: A study on cross-modal word-stem completion task.

    PubMed

    Sebastiani, Laura; Castellani, Eleonora; Gemignani, Angelo; Artoni, Fiorenzo; Menicucci, Danilo

    2015-10-05

    Priming is an implicit memory effect in which previous exposure to one stimulus influences the response to another stimulus. The main characteristic of priming is that it occurs without awareness. Priming takes place also when the physical attributes of previously studied and test stimuli do not match; in fact, it greatly refers to a general stimulus representation activated at encoding independently of the sensory modality engaged. Our aim was to evaluate whether, in a cross-modal word-stem completion task, negative priming scores could depend on inefficient word processing at study and therefore on an altered stimulus representation. Words were presented in the auditory modality, and word-stems to be completed in the visual modality. At study, we recorded auditory ERPs, and compared the P300 (attention/memory) and N400 (meaning processing) of individuals with positive and negative priming. Besides classical averaging-based ERPs analysis, we used an ICA-based method (ErpICASSO) to separate the potentials related to different processes contributing to ERPs. Classical analysis yielded significant difference between the two waves across the whole scalp. ErpICASSO allowed separating the novelty-related P3a and the top-down control-related P3b sub-components of P300. Specifically, in the component C3, the positive deflection identifiable as P3b, was significantly greater in the positive than in the negative priming group, while the late negative deflection corresponding to the parietal N400, was reduced in the positive priming group. In conclusion, inadequacy of specific processes at encoding, such as attention and/or meaning retrieval, could generate weak semantic representations, making words less accessible in subsequent implicit retrieval.

  8. L-theanine and caffeine in combination affect human cognition as evidenced by oscillatory alpha-band activity and attention task performance.

    PubMed

    Kelly, Simon P; Gomez-Ramirez, Manuel; Montesi, Jennifer L; Foxe, John J

    2008-08-01

    Recent neuropharmacological research has suggested that certain constituents of tea may have modulatory effects on brain state. The bulk of this research has focused on either L-theanine or caffeine ingested alone (mostly the latter) and has been limited to behavioral testing, subjective rating, or neurophysiological assessments during resting. Here, we investigated the effects of both L-theanine and caffeine, ingested separately or together, on behavioral and electrophysiological indices of tonic (background) and phasic (event-related) visuospatial attentional deployment. Subjects underwent 4 d of testing, ingesting either placebo, 100 mg of L-theanine, 50 mg of caffeine, or these treatments combined. The task involved cued shifts of attention to the left or right visual hemifield in anticipation of an imperative stimulus requiring discrimination. In addition to behavioral measures, we examined overall, tonic attentional focus as well as phasic, cue-dependent anticipatory attentional biasing, as indexed by scalp-recorded alpha-band (8-14 Hz) activity. We found an increase in hit rate and target discriminability (d') for the combined treatment relative to placebo, and an increase in d' but not hit rate for caffeine alone, whereas no effects were detected for L-theanine alone. Electrophysiological results did not show increased differential biasing in phasic alpha across hemifields but showed lower overall tonic alpha power in the combined treatment, similar to previous findings at a larger dosage of L-theanine alone. This may signify a more generalized tonic deployment of attentional resources to the visual modality and may underlie the facilitated behavioral performance on the combined ingestion of these 2 major constituents of tea.

  9. Efficiency of a real time flood forecasting system in the Alps and in the Apennines: deterministic versus ensemble predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossi, G.

    2009-04-01

    Real time hydrological forecasting is still a challenging task for most of the Italian territory, especially in mountain areas where both the topography and the meteorological forcing are affected by a strong spatial variability. Nevertheless there is an increasing request to provide some clues for the development of efficient real time flood forecasting systems, for warning population as well as for water management purposes. In this perspective the efficiency of a real time forecasting system needs to be investigated, with particular care to the uncertainty of the provided prediction and to how this prediction will be handled by water resources managers and land protection services. To this aim a real time flood forecasting system using both deterministic and ensemble meteorological predictions has been implemented at University of Brescia and applied to an Alpine area (the Toce River - Piemonte Region) and to an Apennine area (the Taro River - Emilia Romagna Region). The Map D- Phase experiment (autumn 2007) was a good test for the implemented system: daily rainfall fields provided by high resolution deterministic limited area meteorological models and esemble rainfall predictions provided by coarser resolution meteorological models could be used to force a hydrological model and produce either a single deterministic or an esemble of flood forecats. Namely only minor flood events occurred in the Alpine area in autumn 2007, while one major flood event affected the Taro river at the end of November 2007. Focusing on this major event the potentials of the forecasting system was tested and evaluated with reference also to the geographical and climatic characteristics of the investigated area.

  10. Genetic programming model for forecast of short and noisy data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sivapragasam, C.; Vincent, P.; Vasudevan, G.

    2007-01-01

    Though forecasting of river flow has received a great deal of attention from engineers and researchers throughout the world, this still continues to be a challenging task owing to the complexity of the process. In the last decade or so, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely applied, and their ability to model complex phenomena has been clearly demonstrated. However, the success of ANNs depends very crucially on having representative records of sufficient length. Further, the forecast accuracy decreases rapidly with an increase in the forecast horizon. In this study, the use of the Darwinian theory-based recent evolutionary technique of genetic programming (GP) is suggested to forecast fortnightly flow up to 4-lead. It is demonstrated that short lead predictions can be significantly improved from a short and noisy time series if the stochastic (noise) component is appropriately filtered out. The deterministic component can then be easily modelled. Further, only the immediate antecedent exogenous and/or non-exogenous inputs can be assumed to control the process. With an increase in the forecast horizon, the stochastic components also play an important role in the forecast, besides the inherent difficulty in ascertaining the appropriate input variables which can be assumed to govern the underlying process. GP is found to be an efficient tool to identify the most appropriate input variables to achieve reasonable prediction accuracy for higher lead-period forecasts. A comparison with ANNs suggests that though there is no significant difference in the prediction accuracy, GP does offer some unique advantages. Copyright

  11. On forecasting mortality.

    PubMed

    Olshansky, S J

    1988-01-01

    Official forecasts of mortality made by the U.S. Office of the Actuary throughout this century have consistently underestimated observed mortality declines. This is due, in part, to their reliance on the static extrapolation of past trends, an atheoretical statistical method that pays scant attention to the behavioral, medical, and social factors contributing to mortality change. A "multiple cause-delay model" more realistically portrays the effects on mortality of the presence of more favorable risk factors at the population level. Such revised assumptions produce large increases in forecasts of the size of the elderly population, and have a dramatic impact on related estimates of population morbidity, disability, and health care costs.

  12. Value assessment of a global hydrological forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; van Beek, E.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2012-04-01

    The inter-annual variability in streamflow presents risks and opportunities in the management of water resources systems. Reliable hydrological forecasts, effective communication and proper response allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. A global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value for these regions. FEWS-World system is developed for this purpose. It is based on the Delft-FEWS (flood early warning system) developed by Deltares and incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value as its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. For the assessment in historical simulation mode a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode the model was forced with ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from ECMWF. The results will be disseminated on the internet, and hopefully provide information that is valuable for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The results of the preliminary assessment show that although forecasting skill decreases with increasing lead time, the value of forecasts does not necessarily decrease. The forecast requirements and response options of several water related sectors was

  13. Phantosmia as a meteorological forecaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aiello, S. R.; Hirsch, A. R.

    2013-09-01

    In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia forecasted the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to forecast the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted.

  14. Software forecasting as it is really done: A study of JPL software engineers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Griesel, Martha Ann; Hihn, Jairus M.; Bruno, Kristin J.; Fouser, Thomas J.; Tausworthe, Robert C.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a summary of the results to date of a Jet Propulsion Laboratory internally funded research task to study the costing process and parameters used by internally recognized software cost estimating experts. Protocol Analysis and Markov process modeling were used to capture software engineer's forecasting mental models. While there is significant variation between the mental models that were studied, it was nevertheless possible to identify a core set of cost forecasting activities, and it was also found that the mental models cluster around three forecasting techniques. Further partitioning of the mental models revealed clustering of activities, that is very suggestive of a forecasting lifecycle. The different forecasting methods identified were based on the use of multiple-decomposition steps or multiple forecasting steps. The multiple forecasting steps involved either forecasting software size or an additional effort forecast. Virtually no subject used risk reduction steps in combination. The results of the analysis include: the identification of a core set of well defined costing activities, a proposed software forecasting life cycle, and the identification of several basic software forecasting mental models. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the results for current individual and institutional practices.

  15. Seasonal Drought Predictability and Forecast Skill over China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Feng; Yuan, Xing

    2015-04-01

    With global warming and land use changes, seasonal drought events occur more intensely and frequently. However, the understanding of drought mechanism and predictability is limited. Based on the hindcasts from multiple ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulations models (CGCMs) participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project, this paper investigates the potential predictability and forecast skill of seasonal droughts over China. A 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI3) is used as the drought index, and the anomaly correlation (AC) of the ensemble mean of an individual model against the observed SPI3 values are used as measures of forecast skill. Predictability is calculated by verifying a single member against its ensemble mean, i.e., how well does the model predict itself. Preliminary results indicate that drought predictability is higher than forecast skill, suggesting there is room for improving the drought forecast. There are positive correlations between potential predictability and actual forecast skill, i.e., the models with higher potential predictability also have higher forecast skill. Such relationship holds for different seasons too. For the ENSO-affected river basins in China, both the drought predictability and forecast skill are higher in ENSO years than neutral years, which is consistent with the predictability and forecast skill of ENSO SST.

  16. Forecasting Methods for Institutional Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jennings, Linda W.; Young, Dean M.

    1988-01-01

    Increasing demands for accurate forecasts in such areas as student enrollment, energy expenditures, and facility capacity are placing new demands on the institutional researcher. A variety of forecasting models and methods are available, all to be used with caution in long-range forecasting. (Author/MSE)

  17. Evolutionary Forecast Engines for Solar Meteorology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coimbra, C. F.

    2012-12-01

    A detailed comparison of non-stationary regression and stochastic learning methods based on k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) approaches is carried out in order to develop high-fidelity solar forecast engines for several time horizons of interest. A hybrid GA/ANN method emerges as the most robust stochastic learning candidate. The GA/ANN approach In general the following decisions need to be made when creating an ANN-based solar forecast model: the ANN architecture: number of layers, numbers of neurons per layer; the preprocessing scheme; the fraction and distribution between training and testing data, and the meteorological and radiometric inputs. ANNs are very well suited to handle multivariate forecasting models due to their overall flexibility and nonlinear pattern recognition abilities. However, the forecasting skill of ANNs depends on a new set of parameters to be optimized within the context of the forecast model, which is the selection of input variables that most directly impact the fidelity of the forecasts. In a data rich scenario where irradiation, meteorological, and cloud cover data are available, it is not always evident which variables to include in the model a priori. New variables can also arise from data preprocessing such as smoothing or spectral decomposition. One way to avoid time-consuming trial-and-error approaches that have limited chance to result in optimal ANN topology and input selection is to couple the ANN with some optimization algorithm that scans the solution space and "evolves" the ANN structure. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are well suited for this task. Results and Discussion The models built upon the historical data of 2009 and 2010 are applied to the 2011 data without modifications or retraining. We consider 3 solar variability seasons or periods, which are subsets of the total error evaluation data set. The 3 periods are defined based on the solar variability study as: - a high

  18. Federal Forecasters Directory, 1995.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.

    This directory lists employees of the federal government who are involved in forecasting for policy formation and trend prediction purposes. Job title, agency, business address, phone or e-mail number, and specialty areas are listed for each employee. Employees are listed for the following agencies: (1) Bureau of the Census; (2) Bureau of Economic…

  19. Developing air quality forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Pius; Saylor, Rick; Meagher, James

    2012-05-01

    Third International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research; Potomac, Maryland, 29 November to 1 December 2011 Elevated concentrations of both near-surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometers in diameter have been implicated in increased mortality and other human health impacts. In light of these known influences on human health, many governments around the world have instituted air quality forecasting systems to provide their citizens with advance warning of impending poor air quality so that they can take actions to limit exposure. In an effort to improve the performance of air quality forecasting systems and provide a forum for the exchange of the latest research in air quality modeling, the International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research (IWAQFR) was established in 2009 and is cosponsored by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Environment Canada (EC), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The steering committee for IWAQFR's establishment was composed of Véronique Bouchet, Mike Howe, and Craig Stoud (EC); Greg Carmichael (University of Iowa); Paula Davidson and Jim Meagher (NOAA); and Liisa Jalkanen (WMO). The most recent workshop took place in Maryland.

  20. Influenza Forecasting in Human Populations: A Scoping Review

    PubMed Central

    Chretien, Jean-Paul; George, Dylan; Shaman, Jeffrey; Chitale, Rohit A.; McKenzie, F. Ellis

    2014-01-01

    Forecasts of influenza activity in human populations could help guide key preparedness tasks. We conducted a scoping review to characterize these methodological approaches and identify research gaps. Adapting the PRISMA methodology for systematic reviews, we searched PubMed, CINAHL, Project Euclid, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for publications in English since January 1, 2000 using the terms “influenza AND (forecast* OR predict*)”, excluding studies that did not validate forecasts against independent data or incorporate influenza-related surveillance data from the season or pandemic for which the forecasts were applied. We included 35 publications describing population-based (N = 27), medical facility-based (N = 4), and regional or global pandemic spread (N = 4) forecasts. They included areas of North America (N = 15), Europe (N = 14), and/or Asia-Pacific region (N = 4), or had global scope (N = 3). Forecasting models were statistical (N = 18) or epidemiological (N = 17). Five studies used data assimilation methods to update forecasts with new surveillance data. Models used virological (N = 14), syndromic (N = 13), meteorological (N = 6), internet search query (N = 4), and/or other surveillance data as inputs. Forecasting outcomes and validation metrics varied widely. Two studies compared distinct modeling approaches using common data, 2 assessed model calibration, and 1 systematically incorporated expert input. Of the 17 studies using epidemiological models, 8 included sensitivity analysis. This review suggests need for use of good practices in influenza forecasting (e.g., sensitivity analysis); direct comparisons of diverse approaches; assessment of model calibration; integration of subjective expert input; operational research in pilot, real-world applications; and improved mutual understanding among modelers and public health officials. PMID:24714027

  1. Influenza forecasting in human populations: a scoping review.

    PubMed

    Chretien, Jean-Paul; George, Dylan; Shaman, Jeffrey; Chitale, Rohit A; McKenzie, F Ellis

    2014-01-01

    Forecasts of influenza activity in human populations could help guide key preparedness tasks. We conducted a scoping review to characterize these methodological approaches and identify research gaps. Adapting the PRISMA methodology for systematic reviews, we searched PubMed, CINAHL, Project Euclid, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for publications in English since January 1, 2000 using the terms "influenza AND (forecast* OR predict*)", excluding studies that did not validate forecasts against independent data or incorporate influenza-related surveillance data from the season or pandemic for which the forecasts were applied. We included 35 publications describing population-based (N = 27), medical facility-based (N = 4), and regional or global pandemic spread (N = 4) forecasts. They included areas of North America (N = 15), Europe (N = 14), and/or Asia-Pacific region (N = 4), or had global scope (N = 3). Forecasting models were statistical (N = 18) or epidemiological (N = 17). Five studies used data assimilation methods to update forecasts with new surveillance data. Models used virological (N = 14), syndromic (N = 13), meteorological (N = 6), internet search query (N = 4), and/or other surveillance data as inputs. Forecasting outcomes and validation metrics varied widely. Two studies compared distinct modeling approaches using common data, 2 assessed model calibration, and 1 systematically incorporated expert input. Of the 17 studies using epidemiological models, 8 included sensitivity analysis. This review suggests need for use of good practices in influenza forecasting (e.g., sensitivity analysis); direct comparisons of diverse approaches; assessment of model calibration; integration of subjective expert input; operational research in pilot, real-world applications; and improved mutual understanding among modelers and public health officials.

  2. Statistical Short-Range Forecast Guidance for Cloud Ceilings Over the Shuttle Landing Facility

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.

    2001-01-01

    This report describes the results of the AMU's Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task. The cloud ceiling forecast over the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) is a critical element in determining whether a Shuttle should land. Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters find that ceilings at the SLF are challenging to forecast. The AMU was tasked to develop ceiling forecast equations to minimize the challenge. Studies in the literature that showed success in improving short-term forecasts of ceiling provided the basis for the AMU task. A 20-year record of cool-season hourly surface observations from stations in east-central Florida was used for the equation development. Two methods were used: an observations-based (OBS) method that incorporated data from all stations, and a persistence climatology (PCL) method used as the benchmark. Equations were developed for 1-, 2-, and 3-hour lead times at each hour of the day. A comparison between the two methods indicated that the OBS equations performed well and produced an improvement over the PCL equations. Therefore, the conclusion of the AMU study is that OBS equations produced more accurate forecasts than the PCL equations, and can be used in operations. They provide another tool with which to make the ceiling forecasts that are critical to safe Shuttle landings at KSC.

  3. A forecasting model of gaming revenues in Clark County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, B.; Bando, A.; Basset, G.; Rosen, A.; Meenan, C.; Carlson, J.

    1992-11-01

    This paper describes the Western Area Gaming and Economic Response Simulator (WAGERS), a forecasting model that emphasizes the role of the gaming industry in Clark County, Nevada. It is designed to generate forecasts of gaming revenues in Clark County, whose regional economy is dominated by the gaming industry, and identify the exogenous variables that affect gaming revenues. This model will provide baseline forecasts of Clark County gaming revenues in order to assess changes in gaming related economic activity resulting from future events like the siting of a permanent high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain.

  4. A forecasting model of gaming revenues in Clark County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, B.; Bando, A.; Bassett, G.; Rosen, A.; Carlson, J.; Meenan, C.

    1992-04-01

    This paper describes the Western Area Gaming and Economic Response Simulator (WAGERS), a forecasting model that emphasizes the role of the gaming industry in Clark County, Nevada. It is designed to generate forecasts of gaming revenues in Clark County, whose regional economy is dominated by the gaming industry, an identify the exogenous variables that affect gaming revenues. This model will provide baseline forecasts of Clark County gaming revenues in order to assess changes in gaming related economic activity resulting from future events like the siting of a permanent high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain.

  5. Unorganized machines for seasonal streamflow series forecasting.

    PubMed

    Siqueira, Hugo; Boccato, Levy; Attux, Romis; Lyra, Christiano

    2014-05-01

    Modern unorganized machines--extreme learning machines and echo state networks--provide an elegant balance between processing capability and mathematical simplicity, circumventing the difficulties associated with the conventional training approaches of feedforward/recurrent neural networks (FNNs/RNNs). This work performs a detailed investigation of the applicability of unorganized architectures to the problem of seasonal streamflow series forecasting, considering scenarios associated with four Brazilian hydroelectric plants and four distinct prediction horizons. Experimental results indicate the pertinence of these models to the focused task.

  6. Medium range flood forecasts at global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voisin, N.; Wood, A. W.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Wood, E. F.

    2006-12-01

    While weather and climate forecast methods have advanced greatly over the last two decades, this capability has yet to be evidenced in mitigation of water-related natural hazards (primarily floods and droughts), especially in the developing world. Examples abound of extreme property damage and loss of life due to floods in the underdeveloped world. For instance, more than 4.5 million people were affected by the July 2000 flooding of the Mekong River and its tributaries in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand. The February- March 2000 floods in the Limpopo River of Mozambique caused extreme disruption to that country's fledgling economy. Mitigation of these events through advance warning has typically been modest at best. Despite the above noted improvement in weather and climate forecasts, there is at present no system for forecasting of floods globally, notwithstanding that the potential clearly exists. We describe a methodology that is eventually intended to generate global flood predictions routinely. It draws heavily from the experimental North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and the companion Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) for development of nowcasts, and the University of Washington Experimental Hydrologic Prediction System to develop ensemble hydrologic forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models which serve both as nowcasts (and hence reduce the need for in situ precipitation and other observations in parts of the world where surface networks are critically deficient) and provide forecasts for lead times as long as fifteen days. The heart of the hydrologic modeling system is the University of Washington/Princeton University Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model. In the prototype (tested using retrospective data), VIC is driven globally up to the time of forecast with daily ERA40 precipitation (rescaled on a monthly basis to a station-based global climatology), ERA40 wind, and ERA40

  7. A quality assessment of the MARS crop yield forecasting system for the European Union

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Velde, Marijn; Bareuth, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Timely information on crop production forecasts can become of increasing importance as commodity markets are more and more interconnected. Impacts across large crop production areas due to (e.g.) extreme weather and pest outbreaks can create ripple effects that may affect food prices and availability elsewhere. The MARS Unit (Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS), DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission, has been providing forecasts of European crop production levels since 1993. The operational crop production forecasting is carried out with the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (M-CYFS). The M-CYFS is used to monitor crop growth development, evaluate short-term effects of anomalous meteorological events, and provide monthly forecasts of crop yield at national and European Union level. The crop production forecasts are published in the so-called MARS bulletins. Forecasting crop yield over large areas in the operational context requires quality benchmarks. Here we present an analysis of the accuracy and skill of past crop yield forecasts of the main crops (e.g. soft wheat, grain maize), throughout the growing season, and specifically for the final forecast before harvest. Two simple benchmarks to assess the skill of the forecasts were defined as comparing the forecasts to 1) a forecast equal to the average yield and 2) a forecast using a linear trend established through the crop yield time-series. These reveal a variability in performance as a function of crop and Member State. In terms of production, the yield forecasts of 67% of the EU-28 soft wheat production and 80% of the EU-28 maize production have been forecast superior to both benchmarks during the 1993-2013 period. In a changing and increasingly variable climate crop yield forecasts can become increasingly valuable - provided they are used wisely. We end our presentation by discussing research activities that could contribute to this goal.

  8. Understanding Farmers’ Forecast Use from Their Beliefs, Values, Social Norms, and Perceived Obstacles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Qi; Pytlik Zillig, Lisa M.; Lynne, Gary D.; Tomkins, Alan J.; Waltman, William J.; Hayes, Michael J.; Hubbard, Kenneth G.; Artikov, Ikrom; Hoffman, Stacey J.; Wilhite, Donald A.

    2006-09-01

    Although the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts is continuously improving and new information retrieved from climate data is adding to the understanding of climate variation, use of the forecasts and climate information by farmers in farming decisions has changed little. This lack of change may result from knowledge barriers and psychological, social, and economic factors that undermine farmer motivation to use forecasts and climate information. According to the theory of planned behavior (TPB), the motivation to use forecasts may arise from personal attitudes, social norms, and perceived control or ability to use forecasts in specific decisions. These attributes are examined using data from a survey designed around the TPB and conducted among farming communities in the region of eastern Nebraska and the western U.S. Corn Belt. There were three major findings: 1) the utility and value of the forecasts for farming decisions as perceived by farmers are, on average, around 3.0 on a 0 7 scale, indicating much room to improve attitudes toward the forecast value. 2) The use of forecasts by farmers to influence decisions is likely affected by several social groups that can provide “expert viewpoints” on forecast use. 3) A major obstacle, next to forecast accuracy, is the perceived identity and reliability of the forecast makers. Given the rapidly increasing number of forecasts in this growing service business, the ambiguous identity of forecast providers may have left farmers confused and may have prevented them from developing both trust in forecasts and skills to use them. These findings shed light on productive avenues for increasing the influence of forecasts, which may lead to greater farming productivity. In addition, this study establishes a set of reference points that can be used for comparisons with future studies to quantify changes in forecast use and influence.

  9. Affective differences in Iowa Gambling Task performance associated with sexual risk taking and substance use among HIV-positive and HIV-negative men who have sex with men

    PubMed Central

    Golub, Sarit A.; Thompson, Louisa I.; Kowalczyk, William J.

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the relationship between emotional distress and decision-making in sexual risk and substance use behavior among 174 (ages 25 to 50, 53% black) men who have sex with men (MSM), a population at increased risk for HIV. The sample was stratified by HIV status. Measures of affective decision-making (Iowa Gambling Task, IGT, Bechara et al., 1994), depression, anxiety, sex acts, and substance use during the past 60 days were collected at our research center. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine the relationship between age, HIV status, anxiety, depression, and IGT performance in the prediction of number of risky sex acts and substance use days. Among those without anxiety or depression, both number of risky sex acts and drug use days decreased with better performance during risky trials (i.e., last two blocks) of the IGT. For those with higher rates of anxiety, but not depression, IGT risk trial performance and risky sex acts increased concomitantly. Anxiety also interacted with IGT performance across all trials to predict substance use, such that anxiety was associated with greater substance use among those with better IGT performance. The opposite was true for those with depression, but only during risk trials. HIV-positive participants reported fewer substance use days than HIV-negative participants, but there was no difference in association between behavior and IGT performance by HIV status. Our findings suggest that anxiety may exacerbate risk-taking behavior when affective decision-making ability is intact. The relationship between affective decision-making and risk taking may be sensitive to different profiles of emotional distress, as well as behavioral context. Investigations of affective decision-making in sexual risk taking and substance use should examine different distress profiles separately, with implications for HIV prevention efforts. PMID:26745769

  10. Flood Warning and Forecasting System in Slovakia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leskova, Danica

    2016-04-01

    In 2015, it finished project Flood Warning and Forecasting System (POVAPSYS) as part of the flood protection in Slovakia till 2010. The aim was to build POVAPSYS integrated computerized flood forecasting and warning system. It took a qualitatively higher level of output meteorological and hydrological services in case of floods affecting large territorial units, as well as local flood events. It is further unfolding demands on performance and coordination of meteorological and hydrological services, troubleshooting observation, evaluation of data, fast communication, modeling and forecasting of meteorological and hydrological processes. Integration of all information entering and exiting to and from the project POVAPSYS provides Hydrological Flood Forecasting System (HYPOS). The system provides information on the current hydrometeorological situation and its evolution with the generation of alerts and notifications in case of exceeding predefined thresholds. HYPOS's functioning of the system requires flawless operability in critical situations while minimizing the loss of its key parts. HYPOS is a core part of the project POVAPSYS, it is a comprehensive software solutions based on a modular principle, providing data and processed information including alarms, in real time. In order to achieve full functionality of the system, in proposal, we have put emphasis on reliability, robustness, availability and security.

  11. Putting Mathematical Tasks into Context

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nagle, Courtney R.; Styers, Jodie L.

    2015-01-01

    Although many factors affect students' mathematical activity during a lesson, the teacher's selection and implementation of tasks is arguably the most influential in determining the level of student engagement. Mathematical tasks are intended to focus students' attention on a particular mathematical concept and it is the careful developing and…

  12. Multipurpose simulation systems for regional development forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Kostina, N.I.

    1995-09-01

    We examine the development of automaton-modeling multipurpose simulation systems as an efficient form of simulation software for MIS. Such systems constitute a single problem-oriented package of applications based on a general simulation model, which is equipped with a task source language, interaction tools, file management tools, and an output document editor. The simulation models are described by the method of probabilistic-automaton modeling, which ensures standard representation of models and standardization of the modeling algorithm. Examples of such systems include the demographic forecasting system DEPROG, the VOKON system for assessing the quality of consumer services in terms of free time, and the SONET system for servicing partially accessible customers. The development of computer-aided systems for production and economic control is now moving to the second state, namely operationalization of optimization and forecasting problems, whose solution may account for the main economic effect of MIS. Computation and information problems, which were the main focus of the first stage of MIS development, are thus acquiring the role of a source of information for optimization and forecasting problems in addition to their direct contribution to preparation and analysis of current production and economic information.

  13. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy.

  14. Forecasting potential crises

    SciTech Connect

    Neufeld, W.P.

    1984-04-01

    Recently, the Trend Analysis Program (TAP) of the American Council of Life Insurance commissioned the Futures Group of Glastonbury, Connecticut, to examine the potential for large-scale catastrophic events in the near future. TAP was specifically concerned with five potential crises: the warming of the earth's atmosphere, the water shortage, the collapse of the physical infrastructure, the global financial crisis, and the threat of nuclear war. We are often unprepared to take action; in these cases, we lose an advantage we might have otherwise had. This is the whole idea behind forecasting: to foresee possibilities and to project how we can respond. If we are able to create forecasts against which we can test policy options and choices, we may have the luxury of adopting policies ahead of events. Rather than simply fighting fires, we have the option of creating a future more to our choosing. Short descriptions of these five potential crises and, in some cases, possible solutions are presented.

  15. Uranium price forecasting methods

    SciTech Connect

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-03-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again.

  16. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  17. Satellite freeze forecast system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    Provisions for back-up operations for the satellite freeze forecast system are discussed including software and hardware maintenance and DS/1000-1V linkage; troubleshooting; and digitized radar usage. The documentation developed; dissemination of data products via television and the IFAS computer network; data base management; predictive models; the installation of and progress towards the operational status of key stations; and digital data acquisition are also considered. The d addition of dew point temperature into the P-model is outlined.

  18. Land-Breeze Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Wheeler, Mark M.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The nocturnal land breeze at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) is both operationally significant and challenging to forecast. The occurrence and timing of land breezes impact low-level winds, atmospheric stability, low temperatures, and fog development. Accurate predictions of the land breeze are critical for toxic material dispersion forecasts associated with space launch missions, since wind direction and low-level stability can change noticeably with the onset of a land breeze. This report presents a seven-year observational study of land breezes over east-central Florida from 1995 to 2001. This comprehensive analysis was enabled by the high-resolution tower observations over KSC/CCAFS. Five-minute observations of winds, temperature, and moisture along with 9 15-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler data were used to analyze specific land-breeze cases, while the tower data were used to construct a composite climatology. Utilities derived from this climatology were developed to assist forecasters in determining the land-breeze occurrence, timing, and movement based on predicted meteorological conditions.

  19. Forecast Inaccuracies in Power Plant Projects From Project Managers' Perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanabria, Orlando

    Guided by organizational theory, this phenomenological study explored the factors affecting forecast preparation and inaccuracies during the construction of fossil fuel-fired power plants in the United States. Forecast inaccuracies can create financial stress and uncertain profits during the project construction phase. A combination of purposeful and snowball sampling supported the selection of participants. Twenty project managers with over 15 years of experience in power generation and project experience across the United States were interviewed within a 2-month period. From the inductive codification and descriptive analysis, 5 themes emerged: (a) project monitoring, (b) cost control, (c) management review frequency, (d) factors to achieve a precise forecast, and (e) factors causing forecast inaccuracies. The findings of the study showed the factors necessary to achieve a precise forecast includes a detailed project schedule, accurate labor cost estimates, monthly project reviews and risk assessment, and proper utilization of accounting systems to monitor costs. The primary factors reported as causing forecast inaccuracies were cost overruns by subcontractors, scope gaps, labor cost and availability of labor, and equipment and material cost. Results of this study could improve planning accuracy and the effective use of resources during construction of power plants. The study results could contribute to social change by providing a framework to project managers to lessen forecast inaccuracies, and promote construction of power plants that will generate employment opportunities and economic development.

  20. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    PubMed Central

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Method In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012–2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. Results According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (−€9,367 million), France

  1. Forecasting Zakat collection using artificial neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sy Ahmad Ubaidillah, Sh. Hafizah; Sallehuddin, Roselina

    2013-04-01

    'Zakat', "that which purifies" or "alms", is the giving of a fixed portion of one's wealth to charity, generally to the poor and needy. It is one of the five pillars of Islam, and must be paid by all practicing Muslims who have the financial means (nisab). 'Nisab' is the minimum level to determine whether there is a 'zakat' to be paid on the assets. Today, in most Muslim countries, 'zakat' is collected through a decentralized and voluntary system. Under this voluntary system, 'zakat' committees are established, which are tasked with the collection and distribution of 'zakat' funds. 'Zakat' promotes a more equitable redistribution of wealth, and fosters a sense of solidarity amongst members of the 'Ummah'. The Malaysian government has established a 'zakat' center at every state to facilitate the management of 'zakat'. The center has to have a good 'zakat' management system to effectively execute its functions especially in the collection and distribution of 'zakat'. Therefore, a good forecasting model is needed. The purpose of this study is to develop a forecasting model for Pusat Zakat Pahang (PZP) to predict the total amount of collection from 'zakat' of assets more precisely. In this study, two different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models using two different learning algorithms are developed; Back Propagation (BP) and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM). Both models are developed and compared in terms of their accuracy performance. The best model is determined based on the lowest mean square error and the highest correlations values. Based on the results obtained from the study, BP neural network is recommended as the forecasting model to forecast the collection from 'zakat' of assets for PZP.

  2. Improving High-resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with Upgraded Kain-Fritsch Cumulus Scheme

    EPA Science Inventory

    High-resolution weather forecasting is affected by many aspects, i.e. model initial conditions, subgrid-scale cumulus convection and cloud microphysics schemes. Recent 12km grid studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have identified the importance of inco...

  3. Phantosmia as a meteorological forecaster.

    PubMed

    Aiello, S R; Hirsch, A R

    2013-09-01

    In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia forecasted the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to forecast the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted.

  4. Accuracy of short‐term sea ice drift forecasts using a coupled ice‐ocean model

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Arctic sea ice drift forecasts of 6 h–9 days for the summer of 2014 are generated using the Marginal Ice Zone Modeling and Assimilation System (MIZMAS); the model is driven by 6 h atmospheric forecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2). Forecast ice drift speed is compared to drifting buoys and other observational platforms. Forecast positions are compared with actual positions 24 h–8 days since forecast. Forecast results are further compared to those from the forecasts generated using an ice velocity climatology driven by multiyear integrations of the same model. The results are presented in the context of scheduling the acquisition of high‐resolution images that need to follow buoys or scientific research platforms. RMS errors for ice speed are on the order of 5 km/d for 24–48 h since forecast using the sea ice model compared with 9 km/d using climatology. Predicted buoy position RMS errors are 6.3 km for 24 h and 14 km for 72 h since forecast. Model biases in ice speed and direction can be reduced by adjusting the air drag coefficient and water turning angle, but the adjustments do not affect verification statistics. This suggests that improved atmospheric forecast forcing may further reduce the forecast errors. The model remains skillful for 8 days. Using the forecast model increases the probability of tracking a target drifting in sea ice with a 10 km × 10 km image from 60 to 95% for a 24 h forecast and from 27 to 73% for a 48 h forecast. PMID:27818852

  5. Value of seasonal flow forecast to reservoir operation for water supply in snow-dominated catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anghileri, Daniela; Voisin, Nathalie; Castelletti, Andrea; Pianosi, Francesca; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis

    2014-05-01

    The recursive application of forecasting and optimization can make management strategies more flexible and efficient by improving the potential for anticipating, and thus adapting, to adverse events. In the field of reservoir operation, this means enriching the information base on which release decisions are made. At a minimum, this includes the available reservoir storage, but reservoir management can greatly benefit from consideration of other pieces of information as, for instance, weather and flow forecasts. However, the utility or value of inflow forecasts is directly related to forecast quality. In this work, we focus on snow-dominated water resource systems, where the prediction of the volume and timing of snowmelt can greatly enhance the operational performance. We use the Oroville-Thermalito reservoir complex in the Feather River Basin, California, as a case study to explore the effect of forecast quality on optimal release strategies. We use Deterministic Dynamic Programming to optimize medium-range and seasonal reservoir operation based on different forecasts of reservoir inflows. We determine maximum reservoir operation performance by forcing the optimization with observed inflows, which is equivalent to a perfect forecast. The forecast quality is then progressively degraded to relate forecast skill to changes in release decisions and to determine the minimum forecast skill that is required to affect decision-making. We generate forecasted inflow sequences using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. Forecast initial conditions are created using observed meteorology, while inflow forecasts are based on seasonal climate forecasts. Although the forecast skill level is specific to the Feather River basin, the methodology should be transferable to other systems with strong seasonal runoff regimes. We assess the transferability of the case study results to other systems using alternative reservoir characteristics of the Oroville

  6. Ensemble postprocessing for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bentzien, S.; Friederichs, P.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation is one of the most difficult weather variables to predict in hydrometeorological applications. In order to assess the uncertainty inherent in deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP), meteorological services around the globe develop ensemble prediction systems (EPS) based on high-resolution NWP systems. With non-hydrostatic model dynamics and without parameterization of deep moist convection, high-resolution NWP models are able to describe convective processes in more detail and provide more realistic mesoscale structures. However, precipitation forecasts are still affected by displacement errors, systematic biases and fast error growth on small scales. Probabilistic guidance can be achieved from an ensemble setup which accounts for model error and uncertainty of initial and boundary conditions. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) provides such an ensemble system based on the German-focused limited-area model COSMO-DE. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2.8 km, COSMO-DE is the convection-permitting high-resolution part of the operational model chain at DWD. The COSMO-DE-EPS consists of 20 realizations of COSMO-DE, driven by initial and boundary conditions derived from 4 global models and 5 perturbations of model physics. Ensemble systems like COSMO-DE-EPS are often limited with respect to ensemble size due to the immense computational costs. As a consequence, they can be biased and exhibit insufficient ensemble spread, and probabilistic forecasts may be not well calibrated. In this study, probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts are derived from COSMO-DE-EPS and evaluated at more than 1000 rain gauges located all over Germany. COSMO-DE-EPS is a frequently updated ensemble system, initialized 8 times a day. We use the time-lagged approach to inexpensively increase ensemble spread, which results in more reliable forecasts especially for extreme precipitation events. Moreover, we will show that statistical

  7. Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotz, S.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography. These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi

  8. Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotz, S. P.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

    2012-12-01

    The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC). These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as

  9. Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spessa, A. C.; Field, R. D.; Pappenberger, F.; Langner, A.; Englhart, S.; Weber, U.; Stockdale, T.; Siegert, F.; Kaiser, J. W.; Moore, J.

    2015-03-01

    Large-scale fires occur frequently across Indonesia, particularly in the southern region of Kalimantan and eastern Sumatra. They have considerable impacts on carbon emissions, haze production, biodiversity, health, and economic activities. In this study, we demonstrate that severe fire and haze events in Indonesia can generally be predicted months in advance using predictions of seasonal rainfall from the ECMWF System 4 coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Based on analyses of long, up-to-date series observations on burnt area, rainfall, and tree cover, we demonstrate that fire activity is negatively correlated with rainfall and is positively associated with deforestation in Indonesia. There is a contrast between the southern region of Kalimantan (high fire activity, high tree cover loss, and strong non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire) and the central region of Kalimantan (low fire activity, low tree cover loss, and weak, non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire). The ECMWF seasonal forecast provides skilled forecasts of burnt and fire-affected area with several months lead time explaining at least 70% of the variance between rainfall and burnt and fire-affected area. Results are strongly influenced by El Niño years which show a consistent positive bias. Overall, our findings point to a high potential for using a more physical-based method for predicting fires with several months lead time in the tropics rather than one based on indexes only. We argue that seasonal precipitation forecasts should be central to Indonesia's evolving fire management policy.

  10. Consequences Identification in Forecasting and Ethical Decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Stenmark, Cheryl K.; Antes, Alison L.; Thiel, Chase E.; Caughron, Jared J.; Wang, Xiaoqian; Mumford, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    Forecasting involves predicting outcomes based on observations of the situation at hand. We examined the impact of the number and types of consequences considered on the quality of ethical decision-making. Undergraduates role-played several ethical problems in which they forecast potential outcomes and made decisions. Performance pressure (difficult demands placed on the situation) and interpersonal conflict (clashes among people in the problem situation) were manipulated within each problem scenario. The results indicated that the identification of potential consequences was positively associated with both higher quality forecasts and more ethical decisions. Neither performance pressure nor interpersonal conflict affected the quality of forecasts or decisions. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings and the use of this research approach are discussed. PMID:21460584

  11. Local flood forecasting - From data collection to communicating forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, P. J.; Beven, K.

    2013-12-01

    An important aspect of improving resilience to flooding is the provision of timely warnings to flood sensitive locations thus allowing mitigating measures to be implemented. For specific locations such small communities (often in head water catchments) or river side factories the ability of traditional centralised forecasting systems to provide timely & accurate forecasts may be challenged. This is due in part to the finite resources of monitoring agencies which results in courser spatial scales of model and data collection then may be required for the generation of accurate forecasts. One strategy to improve flood resilience at such locations is to develop automated location specific forecasts. In this presentation we outline a methodology to achieve this based on the installation of adequate telemetered monitoring equipment; generally a water level sensor and a rain gauge. This allows the construction of a local flood forecasting model which may be coupled with available precipitation forecasts. The construction of the hydrological forecasting model consists of a guided process which incorporates both data assimilation and the representation of the forecast uncertainty based on post processing. The guided process requires the modeller to make only a few choices thus allowing rapid model deployment and revision. To be of use the derived forecasts must be made available in real time and updated frequently; maybe every five minutes. Traditional practices in issuing warnings dependent on expert interpretation must therefore be altered so that those at the site of interest become their own `experts'. To aid this appropriate presentation of both the predictions and past performance of the model, designed to encourage realistic interpretation of the forecasts and their uncertainties is considered. The resulting forecast chain is demonstrated on UK case studies.

  12. Hydrologic Forecasting and Hydropower Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wigmosta, M. S.; Voisin, N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Coleman, A.; Mishra, V.; Schaner, N. A.

    2011-12-01

    Hydroelectric power production is one of many competing demands for available water along with other priority uses such as irrigation, thermoelectric cooling, municipal, recreation, and environmental performance. Increasingly, hydroelectric generation is being used to offset the intermittent nature of some renewable energy sources such as wind-generated power. An accurate forecast of the magnitude and timing of water supply assists managers in integrated planning and operations to balance competing water uses against current and future supply while protecting against the possibility of water or energy shortages and excesses with real-time actions. We present a medium-range to seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system where uncertainty in forecasts is addressed explicitly. The integrated forecast system makes use of remotely-sensed data and automated spatial and temporal data assimilation. Remotely-sensed snow cover, observed snow water equivalent, and observed streamflow data are used to update the hydrologic model state prior to the forecast. In forecast mode, the hydrology model is forced by calibrated ensemble weather/climate forecasts. This system will be fully integrated into a water optimization toolset to inform reservoir and power operations, and guide environmental performance decision making. This flow forecast system development is carried out in agreement with the National Weather Service so that the system can later be incorporated into the NOAA eXperimental Ensemble Forecast Service (XEFS).

  13. Forecasting droughts in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Dutra, E.; Di Giuseppe, F.; Pappenberger, F.

    2014-02-01

    The humanitarian crises caused by the recent droughts (2008-2009 and 2010-2011) in East Africa have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought forecasts with sufficient lead time is essential. The use of dynamical model precipitation forecasts in combination with drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), can potentially lead to a better description of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. This study evaluates the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF seasonal precipitation shows significant skill for March-May and October-December rain seasons when evaluated against measurements from the available in situ stations from East Africa. The forecast for October-December rain season has higher skill than for the March-May season. ECMWF forecasts add value to the consensus forecasts produced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), which is the present operational product for precipitation forecast over East Africa. Complementing the original ECMWF precipitation forecasts with SPI provides additional information on the spatial extent and intensity of the drought event.

  14. A hydrometeorological forecasting approach for basins with complex flow regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarkadoulas, Akis; Mantesi, Konstantina; Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koussis, Antonis; Mazi, Aikaterini; Katsanos, Demetris; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2015-04-01

    The combined use of weather forecasting models and hydrological models in flood risk estimations is an established technique, with several successful applications worldwide. However, most known hydrometeorological forecasting systems have been established in large rivers with perpetual flow. Experience from small- and medium-scale basins, which are often affected by flash floods, is very limited. In this work we investigate the perspectives of hydrometeorological forecasting, by emphasizing two issues: (a) which modelling approach can credibly represent the complex dynamics of basins with highly variable runoff (intermittent or ephemeral); and (b) which transformation of point-precipitation forecasts provides the most reliable estimations of spatially aggregated data, to be used as inputs to semi-distributed hydrological models. Using as case studies the Sarantapotamos river basin, in Eastern Greece (145 km2), and the Nedontas river basin, in SW Peloponnese (120 km2), we demonstrate the advantages of continuous simulation through the HYDROGEIOS model. This employs conjunctive modelling of surface and groundwater flows and their interactions (percolation, infiltration, underground losses), which are key processes in river basins characterized by significantly variability of runoff. The model was calibrated against hourly flow data at two and three hydrometric stations, respectively, for a 3-year period (2011-2014). Next we attempted to reproduce the most intense flood events of that period, by substituting observed rainfall by forecast scenarios. In this respect, we used consecutive point forecasts of a 6-hour lead time, provided by the numerical weather prediction model WRF (Advanced Research version), dynamically downscaled from the ~1° forecast of GSF-NCEP/NOAA successively first to ~18 km, then to ~6 km and ultimately at the horizontal grid resolution of 2x2 km2. We examined alternative spatial integration approaches, using as reference the rainfall stations

  15. Adaptive forecasting of aftershock activity after the main shock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2014-05-01

    Forecasting aftershock activity is useful to reduce seismic risks in the affected area after the main shock. The difficulties to forecast aftershocks are (i) a forecasting model should be tailored to each aftershock sequence because the statistical property varies greatly according to an individual aftershock sequence and (ii) the forecasting model has to be estimated from highly deficient data where a significant fraction of early small aftershocks are missing from seismic records. To overcome this difficulty, we have been developing a statistical model to deal with incompletely detected aftershocks, in which the detection rate of aftershocks is sequentially estimated in a state-space modeling approach. Our method enables us to robustly estimate the forecasting model of underlying aftershocks including not only observed aftershocks but also missing ones from the incomplete catalog. We show that the Omori-Utsu formula can be well estimated only from a few hours of the data, and then it can be revised by the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model to adaptively forecast an aftershock sequence with the individual cascading feature as the data size increases in real-time. We demonstrate that how these estimated models can effectively forecast the aftershock activity. We also discuss how these models can be implemented in an operational system for earthquake forecasting. References: T. Omi, Y. Ogata, Y. Hirata, and K. Aihiara, "Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock", Scientific Reports, 3, 2218 (2013). T. Omi, Y. Ogata, Y. Hirata, and K. Aihiara, "Estimating the ETAS model from an early aftershock sequence", (In submission).

  16. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 3 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 3 compares flight plans developed on the Suitland forecast with actual data observed by the aircraft (and averaged over 10 degree segments). The results show that the average difference between the forecast and observed wind speed is 9 kts. without considering direction, and the average difference in the component of the forecast wind parallel to the direction of the observed wind is 13 kts. - both indicating that the Suitland forecast underestimates the wind speeds. The Root Mean Square (RMS) vector error is 30.1 kts. The average absolute difference in direction between the forecast and observed wind is 26 degrees and the temperature difference is 3 degree Centigrade. These results indicate that the forecast model as well as the verifying analysis used to develop comparison flight plans in Tasks 1 and 2 is a limiting factor and that the average potential fuel savings or penalty are up to 3.6 percent depending on the direction of flight.

  17. Solar Indices Forecasting Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henney, Carl John; Shurkin, Kathleen; Arge, Charles; Hill, Frank

    2016-05-01

    Progress to forecast key space weather parameters using SIFT (Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) with the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model is highlighted in this presentation. Using a magnetic flux transport model, ADAPT, we estimate the solar near-side field distribution that is used as input into empirical models for predicting F10.7(solar 10.7 cm, 2.8 GHz, radio flux), the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, and selected bands of solar far ultraviolet (FUV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. Input to the ADAPT model includes the inferred photospheric magnetic field from the NISP ground-based instruments, GONG & VSM. Besides a status update regarding ADAPT and SIFT models, we will summarize the findings that: 1) the sum of the absolute value of strong magnetic fields, associated with sunspots, is shown to correlate well with the observed daily F10.7 variability (Henney et al. 2012); and 2) the sum of the absolute value of weak magnetic fields, associated with plage regions, is shown to correlate well with EUV and FUV irradiance variability (Henney et al. 2015). This work utilizes data produced collaboratively between Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and the National Solar Observatory (NSO). The ADAPT model development is supported by AFRL. The input data utilized by ADAPT is obtained by NISP (NSO Integrated Synoptic Program). NSO is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA), Inc., under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF). The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data service, utilized by the ADAPT/SIFT F10.7 forecasting model, is operated by the National Research Council of Canada and National Resources Canada, with the support of the Canadian Space Agency.

  18. Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Weather Forecasts in the ECMWF Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bozzo, A.; Benedetti, A.; Rodwell, M. J.; Bechtold, P.; Remy, S.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosols play an important role in the energy balance of the Earth system via direct scattering and absorpiton of short-wave and long-wave radiation and indirect interaction with clouds. Diabatic heating or cooling by aerosols can also modify the vertical stability of the atmosphere and influence weather pattern with potential impact on the skill of global weather prediction models. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides operational daily analysis and forecast of aerosol optical depth (AOD) for five aerosol species using a prognostic model which is part of the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-IFS). The aerosol component was developed during the research project Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC). Aerosols can have a large impact on the weather forecasts in case of large aerosol concentrations as found during dust storms or strong pollution events. However, due to its computational burden, prognostic aerosols are not yet feasible in the ECMWF operational weather forecasts, and monthly-mean climatological fields are used instead. We revised the aerosol climatology used in the operational ECMWF IFS with one derived from the MACC reanalysis. We analyse the impact of changes in the aerosol radiative effect on the mean model climate and in medium-range weather forecasts, also in comparison with prognostic aerosol fields. The new climatology differs from the previous one by Tegen et al 1997, both in the spatial distribution of the total AOD and the optical properties of each aerosol species. The radiative impact of these changes affects the model mean bias at various spatial and temporal scales. On one hand we report small impacts on measures of large-scale forecast skill but on the other hand details of the regional distribution of aerosol concentration have a large local impact. This is the case for the northern Indian Ocean where the radiative impact of the mineral

  19. Forecasting Plasma Disruptions Instabilities Using Artificial Neural Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andresia de Oliveira, Kenya; Vannucci, Alvaro; da Silva, Elton Cesar

    2000-10-01

    Two-layer feedforward neural network was used to forecast the disruptive instabilities observed in the TEXT tokamak plasma discharges. For this task, soft X-ray experimental signals were used with very promising results. It was verified that a neural network with an architecture of the type m:2m:m:1 (where m=15) was capable, for example, to forecast the disruptive instabilities up to 4 ms in advance. This period of time is about four times larger than the one obtained previously, when experimental magnetic signals from Mirnov coils were used. From these very good forecasting results obtained it can be concluded that neural networks might be considered an important tool for making predictions over the time evolution of nonlinear systems.

  20. Weather Forecasting Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Weather forecasters are usually very precise in reporting such conditions as temperature, wind velocity and humidity. They also provide exact information on barometric pressure at a given moment, and whether the barometer is "rising" or "falling"- but not how rapidly or how slowly it is rising or falling. Until now, there has not been available an instrument which measures precisely the current rate of change of barometric pressure. A meteorological instrument called a barograph traces the historical ups and downs of barometric pressure and plots a rising or falling curve, but, updated every three hours, it is only momentarily accurate at each updating.

  1. Operational Geomagnetic Forecast Service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semeniv, O.; Polonska, A.; Parnowski, A.

    2014-12-01

    The operational forecasting service for real-time geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp was described. The warning time for the Earth to the intersection of the Dst index is 1-4 hours, for the Kp index - 3 hours. The skillscore parameter, which is defined as a decrease of the relative mean square error with respect to the trivial model, was approximately 40% for Dst and 15% for Kp. The service works on-line freely available through STAFF http://www.staff.oma.be/ browser.

  2. Handbook of Forecasting Techniques

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-12-01

    SOCIAL POLICYISTANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTE POLICY RESEARCH, ,R6156T 10 SRI Project VMO-U3738 ~: .. ~ BURNHAM H. DODGE DAVID C. MILLER PETER SCHWARTZ...G.IKruzic, David C.IMillvr DACW 31l75-C-RM7 ~0 IltLATI~ililON NliikAilMMIE AOADORD S0I 0N( LMETPET TASKC Center for the Study of Social Policy A R, I I...methods suitable for a wide range of technological, economic, social , and environmetntal forecasting are selected and discussed. Procedures for using each

  3. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  4. Forecast Mekong: 2011 update

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    In 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton joined with the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam in launching the Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with the Lower Mekong countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Part of the Lower Mekong Initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey's Forecast Mekong project is engaging the United States in scientific research relevant to environmental issues in the Lower Mekong River countries and is staying the course in support of the Mekong Nations with a suite of new projects for 2011.

  5. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  6. Oak Ridge Health Studies Phase 1 report, Volume 2: Part C, Dose Reconstruction Feasibility Study. Tasks 5: A summary of information concerning historical locations and activities of populations potentially affected by releases from the Oak Ridge Reservation

    SciTech Connect

    DaMassa, C.L.; Widner, T.E.

    1993-09-01

    A significant number of information sources have been identified that are relevant to historical locations and activities of populations potentially affected by releases from the Oak Ridge Reservation. The information that has been reviewed as part of this Task 5 investigation has shown that numerous residences and farms have historically been present near the ORR boundary and that a variety of land uses and recreational activities have been practiced. Based on this information alone, it would appear that many routes of off-site exposure could have been plausible. Most of the available published information addresses demographic and land use data on a regional or county-wide basis over fairly broad time periods. The information sources that are most readily available do not support direct evaluation of potential exposure pathways at specific geographic locations near the Oak Ridge facilities at specific points in time. A number of information sources have been identified that can provide demography and land use information more specific to locations and time periods that are identified to be of interest. Examples of data sources in this category include individual USGS topographic maps, aerial photographs, lowest-level census tract data, and interviews with long-time local residents. However, specific release events and periods of interest should be identified prior to attempts to collect more specific demographic or land use information for actual dose reconstruction.

  7. The Ofidia Project: a Retrospective Fire Danger Forecast Analysis in Mediterranean Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sirca, C.; Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Mirto, L.; Fiore, S.; Aloisio, G.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    OFIDIA (Operational FIre Danger preventIon plAtform) is a two-year project started in May 2013 funded by the European Territorial Cooperation Programme Greece Italy (2007 - 2013). The project aims to improve the operational capability of forecasting, preventing, and fighting forest wildfires, and enhance the cross-border cooperation for fire danger assessment. More specifically, OFIDIA aims at developing an operational fire danger prevention platform, with the ability for near real-time fire danger forecast and fire behaviour analysis in Apulia (Italy) and Epirus (Greece) regions to help forest fires services in the effective prevention and response to forecasted danger.One of the preliminary activities of the project was the evaluation of fire danger performances by analysing the relationship between the predicted daily fire danger and observed fire activity (number of fires and area burned). To achieve this task, fire activity and danger patterns were characterised and their relationships were investigated for the period 2000-2012. The Italian Forest Service (CFS, Corpo Forestale dello Stato) provided fire statistics at NUT03 level. The data were homogenized and uncertainties corrected, and then burned area and number of fires were analysed according to the main fire regime characteristics (seasonality, fire return interval, fire incidence, fire size distribution, etc). Then, three fire danger models (FFWI, FWI, and IFI) were selected and computed starting from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) forecast.Results showed a high inter- and intra-annual variability in fire activiy, also considering the different type of affected vegetation. As for other Mediterranean areas, a smaller number of large fires caused a high proportion of burned area. Furthermore, fire activity showed significant correlations with the outputs obtained by the applied models. High relationships were found between

  8. Social Indicators and Social Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnston, Denis F.

    The paper identifies major types of social indicators and explains how they can be used in social forecasting. Social indicators are defined as statistical measures relating to major areas of social concern and/or individual well being. Examples of social indicators are projections, forecasts, outlook statements, time-series statistics, and…

  9. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  10. The pioneers of weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, Susan

    2016-01-01

    In The Weather Experiment author Peter Moore takes us on a compelling journey through the early history of weather forecasting, bringing to life the personalities, lives and achievements of the men who put in place the building blocks required for forecasts to be possible.

  11. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  12. Statistical Earthquake Focal Mechanism Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    The new whole Earth focal mechanism forecast, based on the GCMT catalog, has been created. In the present forecast, the sum of normalized seismic moment tensors within 1000 km radius is calculated and the P- and T-axes for the focal mechanism are evaluated on the basis of the sum. Simultaneously we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms. This average angle shows tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The method was originally proposed by Kagan and Jackson (1994, JGR). Recent interest by CSEP and GEM has motivated some improvements, particularly to extend the previous forecast to polar and near-polar regions. The major problem in extending the forecast is the focal mechanism calculation on a spherical surface. In the previous forecast as our average focal mechanism was computed, it was assumed that longitude lines are approximately parallel within 1000 km radius. This is largely accurate in the equatorial and near-equatorial areas. However, when one approaches the 75 degree latitude, the longitude lines are no longer parallel: the bearing (azimuthal) difference at points separated by 1000 km reach about 35 degrees. In most situations a forecast point where we calculate an average focal mechanism is surrounded by earthquakes, so a bias should not be strong due to the difference effect cancellation. But if we move into polar regions, the bearing difference could approach 180 degrees. In a modified program focal mechanisms have been projected on a plane tangent to a sphere at a forecast point. New longitude axes which are parallel in the tangent plane are corrected for the bearing difference. A comparison with the old 75S-75N forecast shows that in equatorial regions the forecasted focal mechanisms are almost the same, and the difference in the forecasted focal mechanisms rotation angle is close to zero. However, though the forecasted focal mechanisms are similar

  13. Task Switching Effects in Anticipation Timing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fairbrother, Jeffrey T.; Brueckner, Sebastian

    2008-01-01

    To understand how task switching affects human performance, there is a need to investigate how it influences the performance of tasks other than those involving bivalent stimulus categorization. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to investigate the effects of task switching on anticipation timing performance, which typically requires…

  14. Optimal Power Flow for Distribution Systems under Uncertain Forecasts

    SciTech Connect

    Dall'Anese, Emiliano; Baker, Kyri; Summers, Tyler

    2016-12-29

    The paper focuses on distribution systems featuring renewable energy sources and energy storage devices, and develops an optimal power flow (OPF) approach to optimize the system operation in spite of forecasting errors. The proposed method builds on a chance-constrained multi-period AC OPF formulation, where probabilistic constraints are utilized to enforce voltage regulation with a prescribed probability. To enable a computationally affordable solution approach, a convex reformulation of the OPF task is obtained by resorting to i) pertinent linear approximations of the power flow equations, and ii) convex approximations of the chance constraints. Particularly, the approximate chance constraints provide conservative bounds that hold for arbitrary distributions of the forecasting errors. An adaptive optimization strategy is then obtained by embedding the proposed OPF task into a model predictive control framework.

  15. Optimal Power Flow for Distribution Systems under Uncertain Forecasts: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Dall'Anese, Emiliano; Baker, Kyri; Summers, Tyler

    2016-12-01

    The paper focuses on distribution systems featuring renewable energy sources and energy storage devices, and develops an optimal power flow (OPF) approach to optimize the system operation in spite of forecasting errors. The proposed method builds on a chance-constrained multi-period AC OPF formulation, where probabilistic constraints are utilized to enforce voltage regulation with a prescribed probability. To enable a computationally affordable solution approach, a convex reformulation of the OPF task is obtained by resorting to i) pertinent linear approximations of the power flow equations, and ii) convex approximations of the chance constraints. Particularly, the approximate chance constraints provide conservative bounds that hold for arbitrary distributions of the forecasting errors. An adaptive optimization strategy is then obtained by embedding the proposed OPF task into a model predictive control framework.

  16. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning: Summary report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This summary report discusses the results of each of the four major tasks of the study. Task 1 compared airline flight plans based on operational forecasts to plans based on the verifying analyses and found that average fuel savings of 1.2 to 2.5 percent are possible with improved forecasts. Task 2 consisted of similar comparisons but used a model developed for the FAA by SRI International that simulated the impact of ATc diversions on the flight plans. While parts of Task 2 confirm the Task I findings, inconsistency with other data and the known impact of ATC suggests that other Task 2 findings are the result of errors in the model. Task 3 compares segment weather data from operational flight plans with the weather actually observed by the aircraft and finds the average error could result in fuel burn penalties (or savings) of up to 3.6 percent for the average 8747 flight. In Task 4 an in-depth analysis of the weather forecast for the 33 days included in the study finds that significant errors exist on 15 days. Wind speeds in the area of maximum winds are underestimated by 20 to 50 kts., a finding confirmed in the other three tasks.

  17. Decadal-Scale Forecasting of Climate Drivers for Marine Applications.

    PubMed

    Salinger, J; Hobday, A J; Matear, R J; O'Kane, T J; Risbey, J S; Dunstan, P; Eveson, J P; Fulton, E A; Feng, M; Plagányi, É E; Poloczanska, E S; Marshall, A G; Thompson, P A

    Climate influences marine ecosystems on a range of time scales, from weather-scale (days) through to climate-scale (hundreds of years). Understanding of interannual to decadal climate variability and impacts on marine industries has received less attention. Predictability up to 10 years ahead may come from large-scale climate modes in the ocean that can persist over these time scales. In Australia the key drivers of climate variability affecting the marine environment are the Southern Annular Mode, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, each has phases that are associated with different ocean circulation patterns and regional environmental variables. The roles of these drivers are illustrated with three case studies of extreme events-a marine heatwave in Western Australia, a coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and flooding in Queensland. Statistical and dynamical approaches are described to generate forecasts of climate drivers that can subsequently be translated to useful information for marine end users making decisions at these time scales. Considerable investment is still needed to support decadal forecasting including improvement of ocean-atmosphere models, enhancement of observing systems on all scales to support initiation of forecasting models, collection of important biological data, and integration of forecasts into decision support tools. Collaboration between forecast developers and marine resource sectors-fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, biodiversity management, infrastructure-is needed to support forecast-based tactical and strategic decisions that reduce environmental risk over annual to decadal time scales.

  18. Hydrological model calibration for enhancing global flood forecast skill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirpa, Feyera A.; Beck, Hylke E.; Salamon, Peter; Thielen-del Pozo, Jutta

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems play a key role in flood risk reduction, and their effectiveness is directly linked to streamflow forecast skill. The skill of a streamflow forecast is affected by several factors; among them are (i) model errors due to incomplete representation of physical processes and inaccurate parameterization, (ii) uncertainty in the model initial conditions, and (iii) errors in the meteorological forcing. In macro scale (continental or global) modeling, it is a common practice to use a priori parameter estimates over large river basins or wider regions, resulting in suboptimal streamflow estimations. The aim of this work is to improve flood forecast skill of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS; www.globalfloods.eu), a grid-based forecasting system that produces flood forecast unto 30 days lead, through calibration of the distributed hydrological model parameters. We use a combination of in-situ and satellite-based streamflow data for automatic calibration using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. We will present the calibrated global parameter maps and report the forecast skill improvements achieved. Furthermore, we discuss current challenges and future opportunities with regard to global-scale early flood warning systems.

  19. Probabilistic forecasts based on radar rainfall uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liguori, S.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    The potential advantages resulting from integrating weather radar rainfall estimates in hydro-meteorological forecasting systems is limited by the inherent uncertainty affecting radar rainfall measurements, which is due to various sources of error [1-3]. The improvement of quality control and correction techniques is recognized to play a role for the future improvement of radar-based flow predictions. However, the knowledge of the uncertainty affecting radar rainfall data can also be effectively used to build a hydro-meteorological forecasting system in a probabilistic framework. This work discusses the results of the implementation of a novel probabilistic forecasting system developed to improve ensemble predictions over a small urban area located in the North of England. An ensemble of radar rainfall fields can be determined as the sum of a deterministic component and a perturbation field, the latter being informed by the knowledge of the spatial-temporal characteristics of the radar error assessed with reference to rain-gauges measurements. This approach is similar to the REAL system [4] developed for use in the Southern-Alps. The radar uncertainty estimate can then be propagated with a nowcasting model, used to extrapolate an ensemble of radar rainfall forecasts, which can ultimately drive hydrological ensemble predictions. A radar ensemble generator has been calibrated using radar rainfall data made available from the UK Met Office after applying post-processing and corrections algorithms [5-6]. One hour rainfall accumulations from 235 rain gauges recorded for the year 2007 have provided the reference to determine the radar error. Statistics describing the spatial characteristics of the error (i.e. mean and covariance) have been computed off-line at gauges location, along with the parameters describing the error temporal correlation. A system has then been set up to impose the space-time error properties to stochastic perturbations, generated in real-time at

  20. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, Phase II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2008-01-01

    Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Light Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) created a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display Systems (MIDDS) to indicate the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input.

  1. Short to sub-seasonal hydrologic forecast to manage water and agricultural resources in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shah, Reepal; Sahai, Atul Kumar; Mishra, Vimal

    2017-02-01

    Water resources and agriculture are often affected by the weather anomalies in India resulting in disproportionate damage. While short to sub-seasonal prediction systems and forecast products are available, a skilful hydrologic forecast of runoff and root-zone soil moisture that can provide timely information has been lacking in India. Using precipitation and air temperature forecasts from the Climate Forecast System v2 (CFSv2), the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFSv2) and four products from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), here we show that the IITM ensemble mean (mean of all four products from the IITM) can be used operationally to provide a hydrologic forecast in India at a 7-45-day accumulation period. The IITM ensemble mean forecast was further improved using bias correction for precipitation and air temperature. Bias corrected precipitation forecast showed an improvement of 2.1 mm (on the all-India median mean absolute error - MAE), while all-India median bias corrected temperature forecast was improved by 2.1 °C for a 45-day accumulation period. Moreover, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model simulated forecast of runoff and soil moisture successfully captured the observed anomalies during the severe drought years. The findings reported herein have strong implications for providing timely information that can help farmers and water managers in decision making in India.

  2. The Texas Children’s Hospital Immunization Forecaster: Conceptualization to Implementation

    PubMed Central

    Sahni, Leila C.; Kerr, G Brady; Bunker, Nathan A.; Boom, Julie A.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. Immunization forecasting systems evaluate patient vaccination histories and recommend the dates and vaccines that should be administered. We described the conceptualization, development, implementation, and distribution of a novel immunization forecaster, the Texas Children’s Hospital (TCH) Forecaster. Methods. In 2007, TCH convened an internal expert team that included a pediatrician, immunization nurse, software engineer, and immunization subject matter experts to develop the TCH Forecaster. Our team developed the design of the model, wrote the software, populated the Excel tables, integrated the software, and tested the Forecaster. We created a table of rules that contained each vaccine’s recommendations, minimum ages and intervals, and contraindications, which served as the basis for the TCH Forecaster. Results. We created 15 vaccine tables that incorporated 79 unique dose states and 84 vaccine types to operationalize the entire United States recommended immunization schedule. The TCH Forecaster was implemented throughout the TCH system, the Indian Health Service, and the Virginia Department of Health. The TCH Forecast Tester is currently being used nationally. Conclusions. Immunization forecasting systems might positively affect adherence to vaccine recommendations. Efforts to support health care provider utilization of immunization forecasting systems and to evaluate their impact on patient care are needed. PMID:25320898

  3. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustí-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Chevallier, F.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Ciais, P.; Deutscher, N. M.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Kivi, R.; Paris, J.-D.; Peuch, V.-H.; Sherlock, V.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.

    2014-11-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) real-time forecast is now available as part of the pre-operational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO2 products retrieved from satellite measurements and

  4. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustí-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Chevallier, F.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Ciais, P.; Deutscher, N. M.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Kivi, R.; Paris, J.-D.; Peuch, V.-H.; Sherlock, V.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.

    2014-05-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) real-time forecast is now available as part of the pre-operational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO2 satellite retrievals, as they become available in

  5. Tropical forecasting - Predictability perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shukla, J.

    1989-01-01

    Results are presented of classical predictability studies and forecast experiments with observed initial conditions to show the nature of initial error growth and final error equilibration for the tropics and midlatitudes, separately. It is found that the theoretical upper limit of tropical circulation predictability is far less than for midlatitudes. The error growth for a complete general circulation model is compared to a dry version of the same model in which there is no prognostic equation for moisture, and diabatic heat sources are prescribed. It is found that the growth rate of synoptic-scale errors for the dry model is significantly smaller than for the moist model, suggesting that the interactions between dynamics and moist processes are among the important causes of atmospheric flow predictability degradation. Results are then presented of numerical experiments showing that correct specification of the slowly varying boundary condition of SST produces significant improvement in the prediction of time-averaged circulation and rainfall over the tropics.

  6. Drought forecasting in Luanhe River basin involving climatic indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Weinan; Wang, Yixuan; Li, Jianzhu; Feng, Ping; Smith, Ronald J.

    2016-09-01

    Drought is regarded as one of the most severe natural disasters globally. This is especially the case in Tianjin City, Northern China, where drought can affect economic development and people's livelihoods. Drought forecasting, the basis of drought management, is an important mitigation strategy. In this paper, we evolve a probabilistic forecasting model, which forecasts transition probabilities from a current Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) value to a future SPI class, based on conditional distribution of multivariate normal distribution to involve two large-scale climatic indices at the same time, and apply the forecasting model to 26 rain gauges in the Luanhe River basin in North China. The establishment of the model and the derivation of the SPI are based on the hypothesis of aggregated monthly precipitation that is normally distributed. Pearson correlation and Shapiro-Wilk normality tests are used to select appropriate SPI time scale and large-scale climatic indices. Findings indicated that longer-term aggregated monthly precipitation, in general, was more likely to be considered normally distributed and forecasting models should be applied to each gauge, respectively, rather than to the whole basin. Taking Liying Gauge as an example, we illustrate the impact of the SPI time scale and lead time on transition probabilities. Then, the controlled climatic indices of every gauge are selected by Pearson correlation test and the multivariate normality of SPI, corresponding climatic indices for current month and SPI 1, 2, and 3 months later are demonstrated using Shapiro-Wilk normality test. Subsequently, we illustrate the impact of large-scale oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns on transition probabilities. Finally, we use a score method to evaluate and compare the performance of the three forecasting models and compare them with two traditional models which forecast transition probabilities from a current to a future SPI class. The results show that the

  7. Managing Multiple Tasks in Complex, Dynamic Environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freed, Michael; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Sketchy planners are designed to achieve goals in realistically complex, time-pressured, and uncertain task environments. However, the ability to manage multiple, potentially interacting tasks in such environments requires extensions to the functionality these systems typically provide. This paper identifies a number of factors affecting how interacting tasks should be prioritized, interrupted, and resumed, and then describes a sketchy planner called APEX that takes account of these factors when managing multiple tasks.

  8. Resolving task rule incongruence during task switching by competitor rule suppression.

    PubMed

    Meiran, Nachshon; Hsieh, Shulan; Dimov, Eduard

    2010-07-01

    Task switching requires maintaining readiness to execute any task of a given set of tasks. However, when tasks switch, the readiness to execute the now-irrelevant task generates interference, as seen in the task rule incongruence effect. Overcoming such interference requires fine-tuned inhibition that impairs task readiness only minimally. In an experiment involving 2 object classification tasks and 2 location classification tasks, the authors show that irrelevant task rules that generate response conflicts are inhibited. This competitor rule suppression (CRS) is seen in response slowing in subsequent trials, when the competing rules become relevant. CRS is shown to operate on specific rules without affecting similar rules. CRS and backward inhibition, which is another inhibitory phenomenon, produced additive effects on reaction time, suggesting their mutual independence. Implications for current formal theories of task switching as well as for conflict monitoring theories are discussed.

  9. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

    2009-01-01

    Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to create a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that indicates the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. The tool creates a graphic depicting the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on the average of the upper level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 n mi standoff circles centered at the location of interest, as well as one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 sector width based on a previous AMU study that determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 of the upper-level wind direction. The AMU was then tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). SMG later requested the tool be updated to provide more flexibility and quicker access to model data. This presentation describes the work performed by the AMU to transition the tool into AWIPS, as well as the subsequent improvements made to the tool.

  10. Forecasting droughts in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, Emmah; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Dutra, Emanuel; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Pappenberger, Florian

    2014-05-01

    The humanitarian crisis caused by the recent droughts (2008-2009 and 2010-2011) in East Africa have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought predictions with sufficient lead time is essential. The use of dynamical model forecasts in combination with drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), can potentially to lead to a better description of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. This study evaluates the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF seasonal precipitation shows significant skill for both rain seasons when evaluated against measurements from the available in-situ stations from East Africa. The forecast for October-December rain season has higher skill than for the March-May season. ECMWF forecasts add value to the statistical forecasts produced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums (GHACOF), which is the present operational product. Complementing the raw precipitation forecasts with SPI provides additional information on the spatial extent and intensity of the drought event.

  11. Pilot based frameworks for Weather Research Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganapathi, Dinesh Prasanth

    The Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) domain consists of complex workflows that demand the use of Distributed Computing Infrastructure (DCI). Weather forecasting requires that weather researchers use different set of initial conditions and one or a combination of physics models on the same set of input data. For these type of simulations an ensemble based computing approach becomes imperative. Most DCIs have local job-schedulers that have no smart way of dealing with the execution of an ensemble type of computational problem as the job-schedulers are built to cater to the bare essentials of resource allocation. This means the weather scientists have to submit multiple jobs to the job-scheduler. In this dissertation we use Pilot-Job based tools to decouple work-load submission and resource allocation therefore streamlining the complex workflows in Weather Research and Forecasting domain and reduce their overall time to completion. We also achieve location independent job execution, data movement, placement and processing. Next, we create the necessary enablers to run an ensemble of tasks bearing the capability to run on multiple heterogeneous distributed computing resources there by creating the opportunity to minimize the overall time consumed in running the models. Our experiments show that the tools developed exhibit very good, strong and weak scaling characteristics. These results bear the potential to change the way weather researchers are submitting traditional WRF jobs to the DCIs by giving them a powerful weapon in their arsenal that can exploit the combined power of various heterogeneous DCIs that could otherwise be difficult to harness owing to interoperability issues.

  12. The Affective Regulation of Cognitive Priming

    PubMed Central

    Storbeck, Justin; Clore, Gerald L.

    2008-01-01

    Semantic and affective priming are classic effects observed in cognitive and social psychology, respectively. We discovered that affect regulates such priming effects. In Experiment 1, positive and negative moods were induced prior to one of three priming tasks; evaluation, categorization, or lexical decision. As predicted, positive affect led to both affective priming (evaluation task) and semantic priming (category and lexical decision tasks). However, negative affect inhibited such effects. In Experiment 2, participants in their natural affective state completed the same priming tasks as in Experiment 1. As expected, affective priming (evaluation task) and category priming (categorization and lexical decision tasks) were observed in such resting affective states. Hence, we conclude that negative affect inhibits semantic and affective priming. These results support recent theoretical models, which suggest that positive affect promotes associations among strong and weak concepts, and that negative affect impairs such associations (Kuhl, 2000; Clore & Storbeck, 2006). PMID:18410195

  13. Attention in a multi-task environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andre, Anthony D.; Heers, Susan T.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments used a low fidelity multi-task simulation to investigate the effects of cue specificity on task preparation and performance. Subjects performed a continuous compensatory tracking task and were periodically prompted to perform one of several concurrent secondary tasks. The results provide strong evidence that subjects enacted a strategy to actively divert resources towards secondary task preparation only when they had specific information about an upcoming task to be performed. However, this strategy was not as much affected by the type of task cued (Experiment 1) or its difficulty level (Experiment 2). Overall, subjects seemed aware of both the costs (degraded primary task tracking) and benefits (improved secondary task performance) of cue information. Implications of the present results for computational human performance/workload models are discussed.

  14. Implicit and Explicit Memory for Affective Passages in Temporal Lobectomy Patients

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burton, Leslie A.; Rabin, Laura; Vardy, Susan Bernstein; Frohlich, Jonathan; Porter, Gwinne Wyatt; Dimitri, Diana; Cofer, Lucas; Labar, Douglas

    2008-01-01

    Eighteen temporal lobectomy patients (9 left, LTL; 9 right, RTL) were administered four verbal tasks, an Affective Implicit Task, a Neutral Implicit Task, an Affective Explicit Task, and a Neutral Explicit Task. For the Affective and Neutral Implicit Tasks, participants were timed while reading aloud passages with affective or neutral content,…

  15. Application of quantitative precipitation forecasting and precipitation ensemble prediction for hydrological forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, P.; Tie-Yuan, S.; Zhi-Yuan, Y.; Jun-Chao, W.

    2015-05-01

    The precipitation in the forecast period influences flood forecasting precision, due to the uncertainty of the input to the hydrological model. Taking the ZhangHe basin as the example, the research adopts the precipitation forecast and ensemble precipitation forecast product of the AREM model, uses the Xin Anjiang hydrological model, and tests the flood forecasts. The results show that the flood forecast result can be clearly improved when considering precipitation during the forecast period. Hydrological forecast based on Ensemble Precipitation prediction gives better hydrological forecast information, better satisfying the need for risk information for flood prevention and disaster reduction, and has broad development opportunities.

  16. Forecasting annual aboveground net primary production in the intermountain west

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    For many land manager’s annual aboveground net primary production, or plant growth, is a key factor affecting business success, profitability and each land manager's ability to successfully meet land management objectives. The strategy often utilized for forecasting plant growth is to assume every y...

  17. A model for statistical forecasting of menu item demand.

    PubMed

    Wood, S D

    1977-03-01

    Foodservice planning necessarily begins with a forecast of demand. Menu item demand forecasts are needed to make food item production decisions, work force and facility acquisition plans, and resource allocation and scheduling decisions. As these forecasts become more accurate, the tasks of adjusting original plans are minimized. Forecasting menu item demand need no longer be the tedious and inaccurate chore which is so prevalent in hospital food management systems today. In most instances, data may be easily collected as a by-product of existing activities to support accurate statistical time series predictions. Forecasts of meal tray count, based on a rather sophisticated model, multiplied by average menu item preference percentages can provide accurate predictions of demand. Once the forecasting models for tray count have been developed, simple worksheets can be prepared to facilitate manual generation of the forecasts on a continuing basis. These forecasts can then be recorded on a worksheet that reflects average patient preference percentages (of tray count), so that the product of the percentages with the tray count prediction produces menu item predictions on the same worksheet. As the patient preference percentages stabilize, data collection can be reduced to the daily recording of tray count and one-step-ahead forecase errors for each meal with a periodic gathering of patient preference percentages to update and/or verify the existing date. The author is more thoroughly investigating the cost/benefit relationship of such a system through the analysis of new empirical data. It is clear that the system offers potential for reducing costs at the diet category or total tray count levels. It is felt that these benefits transfer down to the meal item level as well as offer ways of generating more accurate predictions, with perhaps only minor (if any) labor time increments. Research in progress will delineate expected savings more explicitly. The approach

  18. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  19. Method Forecasts Global Energy Substitution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chemical and Engineering News, 1975

    1975-01-01

    Describes a model developed to forecast energy demands and determine trends in demand for primary fuels. The energy model essentially considers primary energy sources as competing commodities in a market. (MLH)

  20. Forecast of solar cycle 25

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krasotkin, Serge; Shmorgilov, Feodor

    The revised method of equal phase averaging was used to predict the main features of the solar cycle 25. The forecast of Wolf number values was obtained not only for solar cycle maximum but for 16 phases of the cycle. The double-peak structure of the cycle maximum phase is well seen. The problems of the long- and superlong-term forecasts of solar activity are discussed.

  1. Forecasting Thermosphere Density: an Overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruinsma, S.

    2015-12-01

    Our knowledge of the thermosphere has improved considerably since 2000 thanks to the availability of high-resolution accelerometer inferred densities. Consequently, precision and shortcomings of thermosphere models are better known. Thermosphere density forecast accuracy is limited by: 1) the accuracy of the thermosphere model 2) the solar and geomagnetic activity forecast 3) the quality of the data assimilation system. The precision of semi-empirical thermosphere models is 10-25%. Solar activity forecasts can be accurate up to 5 days. They become less accurate with time, but some proxies are more forecastable than others. Geomagnetic activity forecasting is more problematic, since in most cases storm events cannot be predicted on any time scale. The forecast accuracy is ultimately bounded by the thermosphere model precision and the (varying) degree to which mainly the solar proxy represents EUV heating of the atmosphere. Both errors can be corrected for by means of near real time (nrt) assimilation of satellite drag data, provided that the data is of high quality. At present, only the classified High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model of the Air Force has that capability operationally, even if other prototype nrt models have been developed. Data assimilation significantly improves density forecasts up to 72-hours out; there is no gain for longer periods due to the short memory of the thermosphere system. Only physical models, e.g. TIMEGCM and CTIPe, can in principle reproduce the dynamic changes in density for example during geomagnetic storms. However, accurate information on atmospheric heating is often missing, or not used. When it is, observed and modeled Traveling Atmospheric Disturbances are very similar. Nonmigrating tides and waves propagating from the lower atmosphere cause longitudinal density variations; sources of geophysical noise for semi-empirical models, they can be predicted qualitatively and sometimes quantitatively with physical models. This

  2. Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuhlthan, A. R.; Vermuri, R. S.

    1978-01-01

    Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling.

  3. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  4. Forecasting droughts in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Dutra, E.; Di Giuseppe, F.; Pappenberger, F.

    2013-08-01

    The humanitarian crisis caused by the recent droughts (2008-2009 and 2010-2011) in the East African region have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought predictions with adequate lead time is essential. The use of dynamical model forecasts and drought indices, such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), promises to lead to a better description of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. This study evaluates the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF seasonal precipitation shows significant skill for both rain seasons when evaluated against measurements from the available in-situ stations from East Africa. The October-December rain season has higher skill that the March-May season. ECMWF forecasts add value to the statistical forecasts produced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums (GHACOF) which is the present operational product. Complementing the raw precipitation forecasts with SPI provides additional information on the spatial extend and intensity of the drought event.

  5. Application of seasonal forecasting for the drought forecasting in Catalonia (Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Zaragoza, Albert; Aznar, Blanca; Cabot, Jordi

    2010-05-01

    Low flows and droughts are a hydro-climatic feature in Spain (Alvarez et al, 2008). The construction of dams as water reservoirs has been a usual tool to manage the water resources for agriculture and livestock, industries and human needs (MIMAM, 2000, 2007). The last drought that has affected Spain has last four years in Catalonia, from 2004 to the spring of 2008, and it has been particularly hard as a consequence of the precipitation deficit in the upper part of the rivers that nourish the main dams. This problem increases when the water scarcity affects very populated areas, like big cities. The Barcelona city, with more than 3.000.000 people concentrated in the downtown and surrounding areas is a clear example. One of the objectives of the SOSTAQUA project is to improve the water resources management in real time, in order to improve the water supply in the cities in the framework of sustainable development. The work presented here deals with the application of seasonal forecasting to improve the water management in Catalonia, particularly in drought conditions. A seasonal prediction index has been created as a linear combination of climatic data and the ECM4 prediction that has been validated too. This information has implemented into a hydrological model and it has been applied to the last drought considering the real water demands of population, as well as to the water storage evolution in the last months. It has been found a considerable advance in the forecasting of water volume into reservoirs. The advantage of this methodology is that it only requires seasonal forecasting free through internet. Due to the fact that the principal rivers that supply water to Barcelona, birth on the Pyrenees and Pre-Pyrenees region, the analysis and precipitation forecasting is focused on this region (Zaragoza, 2008).

  6. Practical Meteor Stream Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooke, William J.; Suggs, Robert M.

    2003-01-01

    Inspired by the recent Leonid meteor storms, researchers have made great strides in our ability to predict enhanced meteor activity. However, the necessary calibration of the meteor stream models with Earth-based ZHRs (Zenith Hourly Rates) has placed emphasis on the terran observer and meteor activity predictions are published in such a manner to reflect this emphasis. As a consequence, many predictions are often unusable by the satellite community, which has the most at stake and the greatest interest in meteor forecasting. This paper suggests that stream modelers need to pay more attention to the needs of this community and publish not just durations and times of maxima for Earth, but everything needed to characterize the meteor stream in and out of the plane of the ecliptic, which, at a minimum, consists of the location of maximum stream density (ZHR) and the functional form of the density decay with distance from this point. It is also suggested that some of the terminology associated with meteor showers may need to be more strictly defined in order to eliminate the perception of crying wolf by meteor scientists. An outburst is especially problematic, as it usually denotes an enhancement by a factor of 2 or more to researchers, but conveys the notion of a sky filled with meteors to satellite operators and the public. Experience has also taught that predicted ZHRs often lead to public disappointment, as these values vastly overestimate what is seen.

  7. Affective processing requires awareness.

    PubMed

    Lähteenmäki, Mikko; Hyönä, Jukka; Koivisto, Mika; Nummenmaa, Lauri

    2015-04-01

    Studies using backward masked emotional stimuli suggest that affective processing may occur outside visual awareness and imply primacy of affective over semantic processing, yet these experiments have not strictly controlled for the participants' awareness of the stimuli. Here we directly compared the primacy of affective versus semantic categorization of biologically relevant stimuli in 5 experiments (n = 178) using explicit (semantic and affective discrimination; Experiments 1-3) and implicit (semantic and affective priming; Experiments 4-5) measures. The same stimuli were used in semantic and affective tasks. Visual awareness was manipulated by varying exposure duration of the masked stimuli, and subjective level of stimulus awareness was measured after each trial using a 4-point perceptual awareness scale. When participants reported no awareness of the stimuli, semantic and affective categorization were at chance level and priming scores did not differ from zero. When participants were even partially aware of the stimuli, (a) both semantic and affective categorization could be performed above chance level with equal accuracy, (b) semantic categorization was faster than affective categorization, and (c) both semantic and affective priming were observed. Affective categorization speed was linearly dependent on semantic categorization speed, suggesting dependence of affective processing on semantic recognition. Manipulations of affective and semantic categorization tasks revealed a hierarchy of categorization operations beginning with basic-level semantic categorization and ending with superordinate level affective categorization. We conclude that both implicit and explicit affective and semantic categorization is dependent on visual awareness, and that affective recognition follows semantic categorization.

  8. Application of Thorpex-Tigge Multi-Center Weather Forecasts for River Discharge Forecasting: Application to Major Rivers in South Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopson, T. M.; Hamill, T.; Webster, P. J.

    2013-12-01

    TIGGE, the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble, is designed to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2 week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity. In this presentation we examine the precipitation forecasting skill of the TIGGE ensemble to flood forecasting in South Asia. Natural flood disasters impact South Asia with profound societal impacts for the region and globally, with half the world's population depending on the region's great rivers: the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra. The 2007 Brahmaputra floods affecting India and Bangladesh, and the 2010 flooding of the Indus River in Pakistan exemplify disasters on scales almost inconceivable elsewhere. In this presentation we examine the TIGGE precipitation forecasting skill over the basins of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Indus. Recent work (Hamill 2012) has shown the benefits of Tigge to precipitation forecasting over the conterminous US. In this work we also explore its utility in improving the skill of the Climate Forecasting Applications for Bangladesh (CFAB) forecast system, which has been providing operational probabilistic forecasts over the last decade of severe flooding of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as part of a humanitarian effort to mitigate the impacts of these events on the country of Bangladesh

  9. A stochastic HMM-based forecasting model for fuzzy time series.

    PubMed

    Li, Sheng-Tun; Cheng, Yi-Chung

    2010-10-01

    Recently, fuzzy time series have attracted more academic attention than traditional time series due to their capability of dealing with the uncertainty and vagueness inherent in the data collected. The formulation of fuzzy relations is one of the key issues affecting forecasting results. Most of the present works adopt IF-THEN rules for relationship representation, which leads to higher computational overhead and rule redundancy. Sullivan and Woodall proposed a Markov-based formulation and a forecasting model to reduce computational overhead; however, its applicability is limited to handling one-factor problems. In this paper, we propose a novel forecasting model based on the hidden Markov model by enhancing Sullivan and Woodall's work to allow handling of two-factor forecasting problems. Moreover, in order to make the nature of conjecture and randomness of forecasting more realistic, the Monte Carlo method is adopted to estimate the outcome. To test the effectiveness of the resulting stochastic model, we conduct two experiments and compare the results with those from other models. The first experiment consists of forecasting the daily average temperature and cloud density in Taipei, Taiwan, and the second experiment is based on the Taiwan Weighted Stock Index by forecasting the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar against the U.S. dollar. In addition to improving forecasting accuracy, the proposed model adheres to the central limit theorem, and thus, the result statistically approximates to the real mean of the target value being forecast.

  10. The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winsemius, H. C.; Dutra, E.; Engelbrecht, F. A.; Archer Van Garderen, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Werner, M. G. F.

    2013-12-01

    Subsistence farming in Southern Africa is vulnerable to extreme weather conditions. The yield of rain-fed agriculture depends largely on rainfall-related factors such as total seasonal rainfall, anomalous onsets and lengths of the rainy season and the frequency of occurrence of dry spells. Livestock, in turn, may be seriously impacted by climatic stress with, for example, exceptionally hot days, affecting condition, reproduction, vulnerability to pests and pathogens and, ultimately, morbidity and mortality. Climate change may affect the frequency and severity of extreme weather conditions, impacting on the success of subsistence farming. A potentially interesting adaptation measure comprises the timely forecasting and warning of such extreme events, combined with mitigation measures that allow farmers to prepare for the event occurring. This paper investigates how the frequency of extreme events may change in the future due to climate change over southern Africa and, in more detail, the Limpopo basin using a set of climate change projections from several regional climate model downscalings. Furthermore the paper assesses the predictability of these indicators by seasonal meteorological forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system. The focus is on the frequency of dry spells as well as the frequency of heat stress conditions expressed in the Temperature Heat Index. In areas where their frequency of occurrence increases in the future and predictability is found, seasonal forecasts will gain importance in the future as they can more often lead to informed decision making to implement mitigation measures. The multi-model climate projections suggest that the frequency of dry spells is not likely to increase substantially, whereas there is a clear and coherent signal among the models, of an increase in the frequency of heat stress conditions by the end of the century. The skill analysis of the seasonal forecast

  11. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE PAGES

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; ...

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  12. Forecasting the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Using Wikipedia

    PubMed Central

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.

    2015-01-01

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed. PMID:25974758

  13. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  14. Forecasting the 2013-2014 influenza season using Wikipedia.

    PubMed

    Hickmann, Kyle S; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y

    2015-05-01

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  15. FUSION++: A New Data Assimilative Model for Electron Density Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bust, G. S.; Comberiate, J.; Paxton, L. J.; Kelly, M.; Datta-Barua, S.

    2014-12-01

    There is a continuing need within the operational space weather community, both civilian and military, for accurate, robust data assimilative specifications and forecasts of the global electron density field, as well as derived RF application product specifications and forecasts obtained from the electron density field. The spatial scales of interest range from a hundred to a few thousand kilometers horizontally (synoptic large scale structuring) and meters to kilometers (small scale structuring that cause scintillations). RF space weather applications affected by electron density variability on these scales include navigation, communication and geo-location of RF frequencies ranging from 100's of Hz to GHz. For many of these applications, the necessary forecast time periods range from nowcasts to 1-3 hours. For more "mission planning" applications, necessary forecast times can range from hours to days. In this paper we present a new ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) specification and forecast model being developed at JHU/APL based upon the well-known data assimilation algorithms Ionospheric Data Assimilation Four Dimensional (IDA4D) and Estimating Model Parameters from Ionospheric Reverse Engineering (EMPIRE). This new forecast model, "Forward Update Simple IONosphere model Plus IDA4D Plus EMPIRE (FUSION++), ingests data from observations related to electron density, winds, electric fields and neutral composition and provides improved specification and forecast of electron density. In addition, the new model provides improved specification of winds, electric fields and composition. We will present a short overview and derivation of the methodology behind FUSION++, some preliminary results using real observational sources, example derived RF application products such as HF bi-static propagation, and initial comparisons with independent data sources for validation.

  16. Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2014-04-01

    Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future shallow (depth 0-70 km) earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress, and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density as a function of location, magnitude and focal mechanism. In previous publications we reported forecasts of 0.5° spatial resolution, covering the latitude range from -75° to +75°, based on the Global Central Moment Tensor earthquake catalogue. In the new forecasts we have improved the spatial resolution to 0.1° and the latitude range from pole to pole. Our focal mechanism estimates require distance-weighted combinations of observed focal mechanisms within 1000 km of each gridpoint. Simultaneously, we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms, using the method of Kagan & Jackson proposed in 1994. This average angle reveals the level of tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The procedure becomes problematical where longitude lines are not approximately parallel, and where shallow earthquakes are so sparse that an adequate sample spans very large distances. North or south of 75°, the azimuths of points 1000 km away may vary by about 35°. We solved this problem by calculating focal mechanisms on a plane tangent to the Earth's surface at each forecast point, correcting for the rotation of the longitude lines at the locations of earthquakes included in the averaging. The corrections are negligible between -30° and +30° latitude, but outside that band uncorrected rotations can be significantly off. Improved forecasts at 0.5° and 0.1° resolution are posted at http://eq.ess.ucla.edu/kagan/glob_gcmt_index.html.

  17. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, M. ||; Hwang, R.

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  18. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, M. Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI . Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL . Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. )

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  19. A Hybrid Framework for Improving NMME Precipitation Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madadgar, S.; Cheng, L.; Wood, A. W.; Aghakouchak, A.; Svoboda, M.

    2015-12-01

    Precipitation forecasting is a major challenge in most regions around the world. This study focuses on improving global dynamic model forecasts in the Southwest United States, which is often affected by multi-year droughts. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME; Kirtman, 2014), consisting of 99 ensemble members from eight dynamic models, has shown limited skill in predicting winter precipitation in the region. This study proposes a hybrid approach that combines the NMME model simulations with statistical forecast - i.e., a Bayesian-based forecast model that leverages the predictability of atmosphere-ocean teleconnections. Specifically, winter precipitation is predicted given the state of indices including the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific North American index (PNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). An Expert Advice (EA; DeSantis et al., 1988) algorithm is utilized first to find the most skillful ensemble members from NMME, and then to combine the dynamical and statistical models, leading to improved seasonal climate predictions that can benefit drought prediction. The model showed a significant improvement of NMME precipitation predictions during the 2012-2014 droughts in CA and NV - e.g., the approach forecasted the negative precipitation anomalies in 2012-2014 over most parts of the southwest United States. Overall, the hybrid approach results are encouraging for further exploration and could potentially prove to be useful for operational climate prediction.

  20. Components of a Model for Forecasting Future Status of Selected Social Indicators. Department of Education Project on Social Indicators. Technical Report No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collazo, Andres; And Others

    Since a great number of variables influence future educational outcomes, forecasting possible trends is a complex task. One such model, the cross-impact matrix, has been developed. The use of this matrix in forecasting future values of social indicators of educational outcomes is described. Variables associated with educational outcomes are used…

  1. Automation of energy demand forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siddique, Sanzad

    Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.

  2. Advances in Solar Power Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haupt, S. E.; Kosovic, B.; Drobot, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a blended SunCast Solar Power Forecasting system. This system includes several short-range nowcasting models and improves upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the "Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting." The nowcasting models being built include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, multiple sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models with cloud assimilation. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol estimation methods. These new physical models are incorporated into WRF-Solar, which is then integrated with publically available NWP models via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system as well as the Nowcast Blender to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority commercial solar farms. The improvements will be described and results to date discussed.

  3. Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

    2015-12-01

    When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

  4. Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

    PubMed Central

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

    2012-01-01

    Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003–2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza. PMID:23184969

  5. Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza.

    PubMed

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

    2012-12-11

    Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003-2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza.

  6. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 4

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 4 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 4 uses flight plan segment wind and temperature differences as indicators of dates and geographic areas for which significant forecast errors may have occurred. An in-depth analysis is then conducted for the days identified. The analysis show that significant errors occur in the operational forecast on 15 of the 33 arbitrarily selected days included in the study. Wind speeds in an area of maximum winds are underestimated by at least 20 to 25 kts. on 14 of these days. The analysis also show that there is a tendency to repeat the same forecast errors from prog to prog. Also, some perceived forecast errors from the flight plan comparisons could not be verified by visual inspection of the corresponding National Meteorological Center forecast and analyses charts, and it is likely that they are the result of weather data interpolation techniques or some other data processing procedure in the airlines' flight planning systems.

  7. Pollen Forecast and Dispersion Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costantini, Monica; Di Giuseppe, Fabio; Medaglia, Carlo Maria; Travaglini, Alessandro; Tocci, Raffaella; Brighetti, M. Antonia; Petitta, Marcello

    2014-05-01

    The aim of this study is monitoring, mapping and forecast of pollen distribution for the city of Rome using in-situ measurements of 10 species of common allergenic pollens and measurements of PM10. The production of daily concentration maps, associated to a mobile phone app, are innovative compared to existing dedicated services to people who suffer from respiratory allergies. The dispersal pollen is one of the most well-known causes of allergic disease that is manifested by disorders of the respiratory functions. Allergies are the third leading cause of chronic disease and it is estimated that tens millions of people in Italy suffer from it. Recent works reveal that during the last few years there was a progressive increase of affected subjects, especially in urban areas. This situation may depend: on the ability to transport of pollutants, on the ability to react between pollutants and pollen and from a combination of other irritants, existing in densely populated and polluted urban areas. The methodology used to produce maps is based on in-situ measurements time series relative to 2012, obtained from networks of air quality and pollen stations in the metropolitan area of Rome. The monitoring station aerobiological of University of Rome "Tor Vergata" is located at the Department of Biology. The instrument used to pollen monitoring is a volumetric sampler type Hirst (Hirst 1952), Model 2000 VPPS Lanzoni; the data acquisition is carried out as reported in Standard UNI 11008:2004 - "Qualità dell'aria - Metodo di campionamento e conteggio dei granuli pollinici e delle spore fungine aerodisperse" - the protocol that describes the procedure for measuring of the concentration of pollen grains and fungal spores dispersed into the atmosphere, and reported in the "Manuale di gestione e qualità della R.I.M.A" (Travaglini et. al. 2009). All 10 allergenic pollen are monitored since 1996. At Tor Vergata university is also operating a meteorological station (SP2000, CAE

  8. Creating public awareness: state 2025 diabetes forecasts.

    PubMed

    Rowley, William R; Bezold, Clement

    2012-08-01

    The incidence and prevalence of diabetes (primarily type 2 diabetes) has risen sharply since 1990. It is projected to increase another 64% between 2010 and 2025, affecting 53.1 million people and resulting in medical and societal costs of a half trillion dollars a year. We know how to prevent many cases of diabetes and how to treat it effectively. Early appropriate treatment makes a significant difference in preventing major complications and reducing premature death, but it does not cure the disease. Early detection of prediabetes, in conjunction with lifestyle changes, can reduce the number of people with diabetes. A dramatic reduction in diabetes prevalence over time will require significant lifestyle changes on the part of society as a whole. The purpose of this study is to increase public awareness of the severity of regional diabetes trends by providing detailed forecasts for all states and several metropolitan areas for 2010, 2015, and 2025. A model was created to utilize the latest national diabetes and population data and projections, and to transform these into state and metropolitan area forecasts for the whole population and major subgroups. These forecasts were then summarized in easy-to-understand briefing papers for each state and selected metro areas, which are provided online for easy public access. This research is important because little data exist that project the future prevalence and potential costs of diabetes at the state and metro area level. With this data, key stakeholders can make informed decisions concerning diabetes, its impact on their communities, and resource allocation.

  9. An application of ensemble/multi model approach for wind power production forecast.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alessandrini, S.; Decimi, G.; Hagedorn, R.; Sperati, S.

    2010-09-01

    The wind power forecast of the 3 days ahead period are becoming always more useful and important in reducing the problem of grid integration and energy price trading due to the increasing wind power penetration. Therefore it's clear that the accuracy of this forecast is one of the most important requirements for a successful application. The wind power forecast is based on a mesoscale meteorological models that provides the 3 days ahead wind data. A Model Output Statistic correction is then performed to reduce systematic error caused, for instance, by a wrong representation of surface roughness or topography in the meteorological models. The corrected wind data are then used as input in the wind farm power curve to obtain the power forecast. These computations require historical time series of wind measured data (by an anemometer located in the wind farm or on the nacelle) and power data in order to be able to perform the statistical analysis on the past. For this purpose a Neural Network (NN) is trained on the past data and then applied in the forecast task. Considering that the anemometer measurements are not always available in a wind farm a different approach has also been adopted. A training of the NN to link directly the forecasted meteorological data and the power data has also been performed. The normalized RMSE forecast error seems to be lower in most cases by following the second approach. We have examined two wind farms, one located in Denmark on flat terrain and one located in a mountain area in the south of Italy (Sicily). In both cases we compare the performances of a prediction based on meteorological data coming from a single model with those obtained by using two or more models (RAMS, ECMWF deterministic, LAMI, HIRLAM). It is shown that the multi models approach reduces the day-ahead normalized RMSE forecast error of at least 1% compared to the singles models approach. Moreover the use of a deterministic global model, (e.g. ECMWF deterministic

  10. Effects of Task Index Variations On Transfer of Training Criteria. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mirabella, Angelo; Wheaton, George R.

    The concluding series of a research program designed to validate a battery of task indexes for use in forecasting the effectiveness of training devices is described. Phase I collated 17 task indexes and applied them to sonar training devices, while in Phase II the 17 index battery was validated, using skill acquisition measures as criteria.…

  11. Smooth Sailing for Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

  12. Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

  13. A Peak Wind Probability Forecast Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crawford, Winifred; Roeder, William

    2008-01-01

    This conference abstract describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violatioas.The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean end peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

  14. Population Forecasts for Bangladesh, Using a Bayesian Methodology

    PubMed Central

    Hossain, Syed Shahadat

    2012-01-01

    Population projection for many developing countries could be quite a challenging task for the demographers mostly due to lack of availability of enough reliable data. The objective of this paper is to present an overview of the existing methods for population forecasting and to propose an alternative based on the Bayesian statistics, combining the formality of inference. The analysis has been made using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for Bayesian methodology available with the software WinBUGS. Convergence diagnostic techniques available with the WinBUGS software have been applied to ensure the convergence of the chains necessary for the implementation of MCMC. The Bayesian approach allows for the use of observed data and expert judgements by means of appropriate priors, and a more realistic population forecasts, along with associated uncertainty, has been possible. PMID:23304912

  15. Drought forecasting in eastern Australia using multivariate adaptive regression spline, least square support vector machine and M5Tree model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deo, Ravinesh C.; Kisi, Ozgur; Singh, Vijay P.

    2017-02-01

    Drought forecasting using standardized metrics of rainfall is a core task in hydrology and water resources management. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a rainfall-based metric that caters for different time-scales at which the drought occurs, and due to its standardization, is well-suited for forecasting drought at different periods in climatically diverse regions. This study advances drought modelling using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), least square support vector machine (LSSVM), and M5Tree models by forecasting SPI in eastern Australia. MARS model incorporated rainfall as mandatory predictor with month (periodicity), Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole, ENSO Modoki and Nino 3.0, 3.4 and 4.0 data added gradually. The performance was evaluated with root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (r2). Best MARS model required different input combinations, where rainfall, sea surface temperature and periodicity were used for all stations, but ENSO Modoki and Pacific Decadal Oscillation indices were not required for Bathurst, Collarenebri and Yamba, and the Southern Oscillation Index was not required for Collarenebri. Inclusion of periodicity increased the r2 value by 0.5-8.1% and reduced RMSE by 3.0-178.5%. Comparisons showed that MARS superseded the performance of the other counterparts for three out of five stations with lower MAE by 15.0-73.9% and 7.3-42.2%, respectively. For the other stations, M5Tree was better than MARS/LSSVM with lower MAE by 13.8-13.4% and 25.7-52.2%, respectively, and for Bathurst, LSSVM yielded more accurate result. For droughts identified by SPI ≤ - 0.5, accurate forecasts were attained by MARS/M5Tree for Bathurst, Yamba and Peak Hill, whereas for Collarenebri and Barraba, M5Tree was better than LSSVM/MARS. Seasonal analysis revealed disparate results where MARS/M5Tree was better than LSSVM. The results highlight the

  16. GEM: Statistical weather forecasting procedure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, R. G.

    1983-01-01

    The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

  17. Acquisition forecast: Fiscal year 1995

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1995-01-01

    This volume includes projections of all anticipated FY95, and beyond, NASA contract actions above $25,000 that small and small disadvantaged businesses may be able to perform under direct contract with the government or as subcontractors. The forecast consolidates anticipated procurements at each NASA center into an agencywide report, with the aim of increasing industries' advance knowledge of NASA requirements and enhancing competition in contracting. Each center forecast report is divided into three principal categories of procurement: research and development, services, and supplies and equipment.

  18. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  19. Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence.

    PubMed

    Mandel, David R; Barnes, Alan

    2014-07-29

    The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4-0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement.

  20. Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Servranckx, R.; Stunder, B.

    2006-12-01

    Volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDM) have been used operationally since the mid 1990's by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) designated Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) to provide ash forecast guidance. Over the years, significant improvements in the detection and prediction of airborne volcanic ash have been realized thanks to improved models, increases in computing power, 24-hr real time monitoring by VAACs / Meteorological Watch Offices and close coordination with Volcano Observatories around the world. Yet, predicting accurately the spatial and temporal structures of airborne volcanic ash and the deposition at the earth's surface remains a difficult and challenging problem. The forecasting problem is influenced by 3 main components. The first one (ERUPTION SOURCE PARAMETERS) comprises all non-meteorological parameters that characterize a specific eruption or volcanic ash cloud. For example, the volume / mass of ash released in the atmosphere, the duration of the eruption, the altitude and distribution of the ash cloud, the particle size distribution, etc. The second component (METEOROLOGY) includes all meteorological parameters (wind, moisture, stability, etc.) that are calculated by Numerical Weather Prediction models and that serve as input to the VATDM. The third component (TRANSPORT AND DISPERSION) combines input from the other 2 components through the use of VATDM to transport and disperse airborne volcanic ash in the atmosphere as well as depositing it at the surface though various removal mechanisms. Any weakness in one of the components may adversely affect the accuracy of the forecast. In a real-time, operational response context such as exists at the VAACs, the rapid delivery of the modeling results puts some constraints on model resolution and computing time. Efforts are ongoing to evaluate the reliability of VATDM forecasts though the use of various methods, including ensemble techniques. Remote sensing data

  1. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  2. WOVOdat, A Worldwide Volcano Unrest Database, to Improve Eruption Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widiwijayanti, C.; Costa, F.; Win, N. T. Z.; Tan, K.; Newhall, C. G.; Ratdomopurbo, A.

    2015-12-01

    WOVOdat is the World Organization of Volcano Observatories' Database of Volcanic Unrest. An international effort to develop common standards for compiling and storing data on volcanic unrests in a centralized database and freely web-accessible for reference during volcanic crises, comparative studies, and basic research on pre-eruption processes. WOVOdat will be to volcanology as an epidemiological database is to medicine. Despite the large spectrum of monitoring techniques, the interpretation of monitoring data throughout the evolution of the unrest and making timely forecasts remain the most challenging tasks for volcanologists. The field of eruption forecasting is becoming more quantitative, based on the understanding of the pre-eruptive magmatic processes and dynamic interaction between variables that are at play in a volcanic system. Such forecasts must also acknowledge and express the uncertainties, therefore most of current research in this field focused on the application of event tree analysis to reflect multiple possible scenarios and the probability of each scenario. Such forecasts are critically dependent on comprehensive and authoritative global volcano unrest data sets - the very information currently collected in WOVOdat. As the database becomes more complete, Boolean searches, side-by-side digital and thus scalable comparisons of unrest, pattern recognition, will generate reliable results. Statistical distribution obtained from WOVOdat can be then used to estimate the probabilities of each scenario after specific patterns of unrest. We established main web interface for data submission and visualizations, and have now incorporated ~20% of worldwide unrest data into the database, covering more than 100 eruptive episodes. In the upcoming years we will concentrate in acquiring data from volcano observatories develop a robust data query interface, optimizing data mining, and creating tools by which WOVOdat can be used for probabilistic eruption

  3. Development of Parallel Code for the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bahng, B.; Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.

    2014-12-01

    The Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is a numerical model used to forecast propagation and inundation of tsunamis generated by earthquakes and other means in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. At the U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC), the model is mainly used in a pre-computed fashion. That is, results for hundreds of hypothetical events are computed before alerts, and are accessed and calibrated with observations during tsunamis to immediately produce forecasts. ATFM uses the non-linear, depth-averaged, shallow-water equations of motion with multiply nested grids in two-way communications between domains of each parent-child pair as waves get closer to coastal waters. Even with the pre-computation the task becomes non-trivial as sub-grid resolution gets finer. Currently, the finest resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) used by ATFM are 1/3 arc-seconds. With a serial code, large or multiple areas of very high resolution can produce run-times that are unrealistic even in a pre-computed approach. One way to increase the model performance is code parallelization used in conjunction with a multi-processor computing environment. NTWC developers have undertaken an ATFM code-parallelization effort to streamline the creation of the pre-computed database of results with the long term aim of tsunami forecasts from source to high resolution shoreline grids in real time. Parallelization will also permit timely regeneration of the forecast model database with new DEMs; and, will make possible future inclusion of new physics such as the non-hydrostatic treatment of tsunami propagation. The purpose of our presentation is to elaborate on the parallelization approach and to show the compute speed increase on various multi-processor systems.

  4. "Task" as Research Construct

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seedhouse, Paul

    2005-01-01

    The article examines "task" as research construct as predominantly conceived in terms of task-as-workplan in the task-based learning/second language acquisition literature. It is suggested that "task" has weak construct validity and ontology in an overwhelmingly quantitative paradigm because the construct has a "split personality."…

  5. Novel Modeling Tools for Propagating Climate Change Variability and Uncertainty into Hydrodynamic Forecasts

    EPA Science Inventory

    Understanding impacts of climate change on hydrodynamic processes and ecosystem response within the Great Lakes is an important and challenging task. Variability in future climate conditions, uncertainty in rainfall-runoff model forecasts, the potential for land use change, and t...

  6. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  7. EnrollForecast for Excel: K-12 Enrollment Forecasting Program. Software & User's Guide. [Computer Diskette].

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Curtis A.

    "EnrollForecast for Excel" will generate a 5-year forecast of K-12 student enrollment. It will also work for any combination of grades between kindergarten and twelth. The forecasts can be printed as either a table or a graph. The user must provide birth history (only if forecasting kindergarten) and enrollment history information. The user also…

  8. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  9. Concurrent Cognitive Task Modulates Coordination Dynamics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pellecchia, Geraldine L.; Shockley, Kevin; Turvey, M. T.

    2005-01-01

    Does a concurrent cognitive task affect the dynamics of bimanual rhythmic coordination? In-phase coordination was performed under manipulations of phase detuning and movement frequency and either singly or in combination with an arithmetic task. Predicted direction-specific shifts in stable relative phase from 0 degrees due to detuning and…

  10. "My legs affect me a lot. … I can no longer walk to the forest to fetch firewood": challenges related to health and the performance of daily tasks for older women in a high HIV context.

    PubMed

    Schatz, Enid; Gilbert, Leah

    2014-01-01

    Compromised health negatively impacts older persons' ability to participate in expected social roles. Researchers have published little empirical work, however, to explore these issues in HIV endemic African settings. Qualitative interviews with 30 women, aged 60-plus, in rural South Africa, provide insight into the relationship between health and daily activities, with attention to the fulfillment of social roles. In this poor HIV endemic context, older women make connections between their compromised health and their (lack of) capacity to perform the daily tasks that they view as expected of them. By expanding the conceptualization of health to include the capacity to achieve the expectations and perform the tasks expected of one, we better understand how and why health and performance of daily activities are so intricately linked in the minds of respondents. This also provides a starting point for thinking about the social and structural support needed by older persons in these settings, especially as HIV erodes familial supports.

  11. News Media Coverage of Seasonal Forecasts: The Case of Winter 1982-83.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riebsame, William E.

    1983-12-01

    Public interest in the 1982-83 winter forecast was heightened by antecedent press coverage of the possible effects of a solar luminosity decline and the El Chichon eruption on the climate. During the late summer and fall of 1982, several private climatologists and "folk forecasters" issued statements calling for an exceptionally cold winter, especially in the eastern United States. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast, issued on 29 November, contradicted these early, dire predictions by calling for warmer-than-normal winter temperatures in the East. The NWS forecast was carried by slightly more than half of the U.S. daily newspapers, but by only a few weekly newspapers. The reporting was generally quite accurate, although some problems emerged in headlining and in using maps along with stories. The apparent controversy between official and private forecasts was mentioned in virtually every news article. Communication problems such as those surrounding the winter forecast should be of as great a concern to forecasters as is basic accuracy: both affect forecast usefulness.

  12. Forecasting Influenza Outbreaks in Boroughs and Neighborhoods of New York City

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The ideal spatial scale, or granularity, at which infectious disease incidence should be monitored and forecast has been little explored. By identifying the optimal granularity for a given disease and host population, and matching surveillance and prediction efforts to this scale, response to emergent and recurrent outbreaks can be improved. Here we explore how granularity and representation of spatial structure affect influenza forecast accuracy within New York City. We develop network models at the borough and neighborhood levels, and use them in conjunction with surveillance data and a data assimilation method to forecast influenza activity. These forecasts are compared to an alternate system that predicts influenza for each borough or neighborhood in isolation. At the borough scale, influenza epidemics are highly synchronous despite substantial differences in intensity, and inclusion of network connectivity among boroughs generally improves forecast accuracy. At the neighborhood scale, we observe much greater spatial heterogeneity among influenza outbreaks including substantial differences in local outbreak timing and structure; however, inclusion of the network model structure generally degrades forecast accuracy. One notable exception is that local outbreak onset, particularly when signal is modest, is better predicted with the network model. These findings suggest that observation and forecast at sub-municipal scales within New York City provides richer, more discriminant information on influenza incidence, particularly at the neighborhood scale where greater heterogeneity exists, and that the spatial spread of influenza among localities can be forecast. PMID:27855155

  13. Can Business Students Forecast Their Own Grade?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hossain, Belayet; Tsigaris, Panagiotis

    2013-01-01

    This study examines grade expectations of two groups of business students for their final course mark. We separate students that are on average "better" forecasters on the basis of them not making significant forecast errors during the semester from those students that are poor forecasters of their final grade. We find that the better…

  14. Student Enrollment Forecasting in Georgia: Lessons Learned.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Tak Cheung; Pool, Harbison; Davidson, Ronald

    2002-01-01

    Study of school district enrollment forecasting in Georgia finds, for example, differences in forecasting accuracy between large and small school districts, the widespread use of the Cohort Survival Technique, a lag in small school districts' use of sophisticated, computer-based enrollment forecasting models. (Contains 34 references.) (PKP)

  15. School Roll Forecasting Methods: A Review.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simpson, Stephen

    1987-01-01

    A review of the literature concerning local school roll forecasting describes the theoretical model common to most local education agency (LEA) forecasts, identifies a variety of issues relevant to this area of LEA planning, and suggests some opportunities for improvement in LEA school roll forecasting. (Author/CB)

  16. Enrollment Trends, Implications and Forecasting Techniques.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finch, Harold L.

    This paper discusses two approaches that are well adapted to school district enrollment forecasting and related planning studies. The author focuses in turn on two enrollment forecasting methods--the Analytical Simulation Approach, and the Modified Cohort Survival Approach. After briefly describing each forecasting method, he presents a short case…

  17. Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts for African Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Valdes, J. B.; Wi, S.; Roy, T.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Demaria, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    Using high resolution downscaled seasonal meteorological forecasts we present the development and evaluation of seasonal hydrologic forecasts with Stakeholder Agencies for selected African basins. The meteorological forecasts are produced using the Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) methodology applied to NMME hindcasts (North American Multi-Model Ensemble prediction system) to generate a bootstrap resampling of plausible weather forecasts from historical observational data. This set of downscaled forecasts is then used to drive hydrologic models to produce a range of forecasts with uncertainty estimates suitable for water resources planning in African pilot basins (i.e. Upper Zambezi, Mara Basin). In an effort to characterize the utility of these forecasts, we will present an evaluation of these forecast ensembles over the pilot basins, and discuss insights as to their operational applicability by regional actors. Further, these forecasts will be contrasted with those from a standard Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach to seasonal forecasting. The case studies presented here have been developed in the setting of the NASA SERVIR Applied Sciences Team and within the broader context of operational seasonal forecasting in Africa. These efforts are part of a dialogue with relevant planning and management agencies and institutions in Africa, which are in turn exploring how to best use uncertain forecasts for decision making.

  18. Beat the Instructor: An Introductory Forecasting Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snider, Brent R.; Eliasson, Janice B.

    2013-01-01

    This teaching brief describes a 30-minute game where student groups compete in-class in an introductory time-series forecasting exercise. The students are challenged to "beat the instructor" who competes using forecasting techniques that will be subsequently taught. All forecasts are graphed prior to revealing the randomly generated…

  19. Predictions of zonal wind and angular momentum by the NMC medium-range forecast model during 1985-89

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosen, Richard D.; Salstein, David A.; Nehrkorn, Thomas

    1991-01-01

    This paper investigates the quality of weather predictions of the atmosphere's relative angular momentum (M) made by the most recent version of the NMC medium-range forecast model (MRF88) during December 1985-1989. It was found that, compared with older versions of MRF, bias errors in the MRF88 forecasts of M became more prominent, while random errors were not affected. Both types of errors in the M forecasts could be traced to problems with forecasts in the zonal mean zonal wind in the tropics.

  20. Remote Sensing and River Discharge Forecasting for Major Rivers in South Asia (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, P. J.; Hopson, T. M.; Hirpa, F. A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; De-Groeve, T.; Shrestha, K.; Gebremichael, M.; Restrepo, P. J.

    2013-12-01

    The South Asia is a flashpoint for natural disasters particularly flooding of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra has profound societal impacts for the region and globally. The 2007 Brahmaputra floods affecting India and Bangladesh, the 2008 avulsion of the Kosi River in India, the 2010 flooding of the Indus River in Pakistan and the 2013 Uttarakhand exemplify disasters on scales almost inconceivable elsewhere. Their frequent occurrence of floods combined with large and rapidly growing populations, high levels of poverty and low resilience, exacerbate the impact of the hazards. Mitigation of these devastating hazards are compounded by limited flood forecast capability, lack of rain/gauge measuring stations and forecast use within and outside the country, and transboundary data sharing on natural hazards. Here, we demonstrate the utility of remotely-derived hydrologic and weather products in producing skillful flood forecasting information without reliance on vulnerable in situ data sources. Over the last decade a forecast system has been providing operational probabilistic forecasts of severe flooding of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers in Bangldesh was developed (Hopson and Webster 2010). The system utilizes ECMWF weather forecast uncertainty information and ensemble weather forecasts, rain gauge and satellite-derived precipitation estimates, together with the limited near-real-time river stage observations from Bangladesh. This system has been expanded to Pakistan and has successfully forecast the 2010-2012 flooding (Shrestha and Webster 2013). To overcome the in situ hydrological data problem, recent efforts in parallel with the numerical modeling have utilized microwave satellite remote sensing of river widths to generate operational discharge advective-based forecasts for the Ganges and Brahmaputra. More than twenty remotely locations upstream of Bangldesh were used to produce stand-alone river flow nowcasts and forecasts at 1-15 days lead time. showing that

  1. A Course in Economic Forecasting: Rationale and Content.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loomis, David G.; Cox, James E., Jr.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses four reasons why economic forecasting courses are important: (1) forecasting skills are in demand by businesses; (2) forecasters are in demand; (3) forecasting courses have positive externalities; (4) and forecasting provides a real-world context. Describes what should be taught in an economic forecasting course. (CMK)

  2. Operational Planning of Channel Airlift Missions Using Forecasted Demand

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-03-01

    9 Forecasting Techniques .............................................................................................11 Forecasting...as they are. There is also a discussion of forecasting techniques and how they are selected and forecasting with air cargo demand. Using forms of...on the airlines themselves for near term scheduling. Forecasting Techniques There are numerous regression and forecasting techniques available to

  3. Human-computer dialogue: Interaction tasks and techniques. Survey and categorization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Foley, J. D.

    1983-01-01

    Interaction techniques are described. Six basic interaction tasks, requirements for each task, requirements related to interaction techniques, and a technique's hardware prerequisites affective device selection are discussed.

  4. Understanding and Forecasting Ethnolinguistic Vitality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karan, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting of ethnolinguistic vitality can only be done within a well-functioning descriptive and explanatory model of the dynamics of language stability and shift. It is proposed that the Perceived Benefit Model of Language Shift, used with a taxonomy of language shift motivations, provides that model. The model, based on individual language…

  5. Forecasting Enrollment: An Extrapolative Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barenbaum, Lester; Ricci, Raymond

    1982-01-01

    An enrollment projection model designed and implemented at LaSalle College had five phases: establishing clear goals, model construction, model implementation, model estimation and validation, and using the forecast. The history of LaSalle's model and the elements in decision making are outlined. (MSE)

  6. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  7. Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

    1981-01-01

    The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

  8. Military needs and forecast, 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldstayn, Alan B.

    1986-01-01

    FORECAST 2 has accomplished its objectives of identifying high leverage technologies for corporate Air Force review. Implementation is underway with emphasis on restructuring existing programs and programming resources in the FY88 BES/FY89 POM. Many joint service/agency opportunities exist.

  9. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark

    2005-01-01

    The Applied Meteorology Unit developed a forecast tool that provides an assessment of the likelihood of local convective severe weather for the day in order to enhance protection of personnel and material assets of the 45th Space Wing Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

  10. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  11. A Wind Forecasting System for Energy Application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Courtney, Jennifer; Lynch, Peter; Sweeney, Conor

    2010-05-01

    Accurate forecasting of available energy is crucial for the efficient management and use of wind power in the national power grid. With energy output critically dependent upon wind strength there is a need to reduce the errors associated wind forecasting. The objective of this research is to get the best possible wind forecasts for the wind energy industry. To achieve this goal, three methods are being applied. First, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) is being used to predict wind values over Ireland. Currently, a gird resolution of 10km is used and higher model resolutions are being evaluated to establish whether they are economically viable given the forecast skill improvement they produce. Second, the WRF model is being used in conjunction with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts to produce a probabilistic weather forecasting product. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, a single, deterministic weather forecast can only have limited skill. The ECMWF ensemble methods produce an ensemble of 51 global forecasts, twice a day, by perturbing initial conditions of a 'control' forecast which is the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere. This method provides an indication of the reliability of the forecast and a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting. The limitation of ensemble forecasting lies in the fact that the perturbed model runs behave differently under different weather patterns and each model run is equally likely to be closest to the observed weather situation. Models have biases, and involve assumptions about physical processes and forcing factors such as underlying topography. Third, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is being applied to the output from the ensemble forecasts in order to statistically post-process the results and achieve a better wind forecasting system. BMA is a promising technique that will offer calibrated

  12. The Influence of Seasonal Forecast Accuracy on Farmer Behavior: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobi, J. H.; Nay, J.; Gilligan, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Seasonal climates dictate the livelihoods of farmers in developing countries. While farmers in developed countries often have seasonal forecasts on which to base their cropping decisions, developing world farmers usually make plans for the season without such information. Climate change increases the seasonal uncertainty, making things more difficult for farmers. Providing seasonal forecasts to these farmers is seen as a way to help buffer these typically marginal groups from the effects of climate change, though how to do so and the efficacy of such an effort is still uncertain. In Sri Lanka, an effort is underway to provide such forecasts to farmers. The accuracy of these forecasts is likely to have large impacts on how farmers accept and respond to the information they receive. We present an agent-based model to explore how the accuracy of seasonal rainfall forecasts affects the growing decisions and behavior of farmers in Sri Lanka. Using a decision function based on prospect theory, this model simulates farmers' behavior in the face of a wet, dry, or normal forecast. Farmers can either choose to grow paddy rice or plant a cash crop. Prospect theory is used to evaluate outcomes of the growing season; the farmer's memory of the level of success under a certain set of conditions affects next season's decision. Results from this study have implications for policy makers and seasonal forecasters.

  13. Potential application of wavelet neural network ensemble to forecast streamflow for flood management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; He, Jianxun; Sudheer, K. P.; Tay, Joo-Hwa

    2016-05-01

    Streamflow forecasting, especially the long lead-time forecasting, is still a very challenging task in hydrologic modeling. This could be due to the fact that the forecast accuracy measured in terms of both the amplitude and phase or temporal errors and the forecast precision/reliability quantified in terms of the uncertainty significantly deteriorate with the increase of the lead-time. In the model performance evaluation, the conventional error metrics, which primarily quantify the amplitude error and do not explicitly account for the phase error, have been commonly adopted. For the long lead-time forecasting, the wavelet based neural network (WNN) among a variety of advanced soft computing methods has been shown to be promising in the literature. This paper presented and compared WNN and artificial neural network (ANN), both of which were combined with the ensemble method using block bootstrap sampling (BB), in terms of the forecast accuracy and precision at various lead-times on the Bow River, Alberta, Canada. Apart from conventional model performance metrics, a new index, called percent volumetric error, was proposed, especially for quantifying the phase error. The uncertainty metrics including percentage of coverage and average width were used to evaluate the precision of the modeling approaches. The results obtained demonstrate that the WNN-BB consistently outperforms the ANN-BB in both the categories of the forecast accuracy and precision, especially in the long lead-time forecasting. The findings strongly suggest that the WNN-BB is a robust modeling approach for streamflow forecasting and thus would aid in flood management.

  14. Recalling academic tasks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Draper, Franklin Gno

    This study was focused on what students remembered about five middle school science tasks when they were juniors and seniors in high school. Descriptions of the five tasks were reconstructed from available artifacts and teachers' records, notes and recollections. Three of the five tasks were "authentic" in the sense that students were asked to duplicate the decisions practitioners make in the adult world. The other two tasks were more typical school tasks involving note taking and preparation for a quiz. All five tasks, however, involved use of computers. Students were interviewed to examine what and how well they recalled the tasks and what forms or patterns of recall existed. Analysis of their responses indicated that different kinds of tasks produced different levels of recall. Authentically situated tasks were remembered much better than routine school tasks. Further, authentic tasks centered on design elements were recalled better than those for which design was not as pivotal. Patterns of recall indicated that participants most often recalled the decisions they made, the scenarios of the authentically situated tasks, the consequences of their tasks and the social contexts of the classroom. Task events, in other words, appeared to form a framework upon which students constructed stories of the tasks. The more salient the events, the richer the story, the deeper and more detailed the recall of the task. Thus, authentic tasks appeared to lend themselves to creating stories better than regular school tasks and therefore such tasks were recalled better. Implications of these patterns of recall are discussed with respect to issues of school learning and assessment.

  15. Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dietze, Michael C.; Fox, Andrew; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Keitt, Tim H.; Kenney, Melissa; Laney, Christine; Larsen, Laurel; Loescher, Henry W.; Lunch, Claire; Pijanowski, Bryan; Randerson, James T.; Read, Emily; Tredennick, Andrew T; Weathers, Kathleen; White, Ethan P.

    2016-01-01

    A fundamental environmental challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and beyond is predicting the impacts of global environmental change. This challenge is complicated by the fact that we live on a non-stationary, unreplicated planet that is rapidly moving outside the envelope of natural variability into an historical non-analog world. In other words, while the past helps inform us about how the world has worked, it may no longer be the relevant frame of reference for management, conservation, and sustainability. In this future world the two questions at the foundation of sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect this trajectory?” These are, at their heart, questions about ecological forecasting.

  16. The New Era in Operational Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Carlson, H. C.; Gardner, L. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D. D.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Knipp, D. J.; Blake, J. B.; Rex, J.; Fuschino, R.; Mertens, C. J.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Atwell, W.

    2012-12-01

    Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere, thermosphere, and even troposphere are key regions that are affected. The Utah State University (USU) Space Weather Center (SWC) and Space Environment Technologies (SET) are developing and producing commercial space weather applications. Key systems for providing timely information about the effects of space weather are SWC's Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system, SET's Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS), and SET's Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety (ARMAS) system. GAIM, operated by SWC, improves real-time communication and navigation systems by continuously ingesting up to 10,000 slant TEC measurements every 15-minutes from approximately 500 stations. Ionosonde data from several dozen global stations is ingested every 15 minutes to improve the vertical profiles within GAIM. These operational runs enable the reporting of global radio high frequency (HF) signal strengths and near vertical incidence skywave (NVIS) maps used by amateur radio operators and emergency responders via the http://q-upnow.com website. MAPS provides a forecast Dst index out to 6 days through the data-driven Anemomilos algorithm. Anemomilos uses observational proxies for the magnitude, location, and velocity of solar ejecta events. This forecast index is used by satellite operations to characterize upcoming geomagnetic storms, for example. ARMAS is demonstrating a prototype flight of microdosimeters on aircraft to capture the "weather" of the radiation environment for air-crew and passenger safety. It assimilates real-time radiation dose and dose rate data into the global NAIRAS radiation system to correct the global climatology for more accurate radiation fields along flight tracks. This team

  17. Theoretical basis for operational ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzo, V. J.; Koning, C.; Cash, M.; Millward, G.; Biesecker, D. A.; Puga, L.; Codrescu, M.; Odstrcil, D.

    2015-10-01

    We lay out the theoretical underpinnings for the application of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil modeling system to ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in an operational environment. In such models, there is no magnetic cloud component, so our results pertain only to CME front properties, such as transit time to Earth. Within this framework, we find no evidence that the propagation is chaotic, and therefore, CME forecasting calls for different tactics than employed for terrestrial weather or hurricane forecasting. We explore a broad range of CME cone inputs and ambient states to flesh out differing CME evolutionary behavior in the various dynamical domains (e.g., large, fast CMEs launched into a slow ambient, and the converse; plus numerous permutations in between). CME propagation in both uniform and highly structured ambient flows is considered to assess how much the solar wind background affects the CME front properties at 1 AU. Graphical and analytic tools pertinent to an ensemble approach are developed to enable uncertainties in forecasting CME impact at Earth to be realistically estimated. We discuss how uncertainties in CME pointing relative to the Sun-Earth line affects the reliability of a forecast and how glancing blows become an issue for CME off-points greater than about the half width of the estimated input CME. While the basic results appear consistent with established impressions of CME behavior, the next step is to use existing records of well-observed CMEs at both Sun and Earth to verify that real events appear to follow the systematic tendencies presented in this study.

  18. From Potential to Practice: How Weather and Climate Forecasts Can Be Effectively Used in Water Resources Management Decision Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

    2015-12-01

    The last decade has witnessed tremendous scientific and technological advances in our ability to forecast climate variability and extremes, which are potentially useful to help operate and manage water resources systems with larger reliability and efficiency. However, many forecasts are rarely effectively used in practice and there is little evidence of incorporating them in real-world decision making. One of the main barriers of the uptake of forecasts, which is often cited by studies, is related to forecast uncertainty; however, even reliable forecasts alone are not sufficient to ensure the expected response. There exist other barriers that affect effective use of forecasts such as water managers' behavior and institutional impediments. In fact, water managers make decisions in a sophisticated setting, which is on one hand affected by uncertainty and on the other hand constrained by regulations and policies. Therefore, it is not only important to recognize the various key individual challenges, but also critical to understand the interdependencies among them (Figure 1) in order to properly address the effective use of forecasts. This understanding is also essential to assess the expected value of forecasts information which is of high importance for decision makers prior to incorporating forecasts. The main objectives of this talk, which builds upon an extensive literature review of using forecasts in water resources and agricultural decision making, are to 1) address the key challenges limiting the uptake of forecast, 2) highlight the interdependency among different factors, and 3) shed light on how these insights can help improve the use of forecast in real-world practices.

  19. Improving GEFS Weather Forecasts for Indian Monsoon with Statistical Downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agrawal, Ankita; Salvi, Kaustubh; Ghosh, Subimal

    2014-05-01

    Weather forecast has always been a challenging research problem, yet of a paramount importance as it serves the role of 'key input' in formulating modus operandi for immediate future. Short range rainfall forecasts influence a wide range of entities, right from agricultural industry to a common man. Accurate forecasts actually help in minimizing the possible damage by implementing pre-decided plan of action and hence it is necessary to gauge the quality of forecasts which might vary with the complexity of weather state and regional parameters. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is one such perfect arena to check the quality of weather forecast not only because of the level of intricacy in spatial and temporal patterns associated with it, but also the amount of damage it can cause (because of poor forecasts) to the Indian economy by affecting agriculture Industry. The present study is undertaken with the rationales of assessing, the ability of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) in predicting ISMR over central India and the skill of statistical downscaling technique in adding value to the predictions by taking them closer to evidentiary target dataset. GEFS is a global numerical weather prediction system providing the forecast results of different climate variables at a fine resolution (0.5 degree and 1 degree). GEFS shows good skills in predicting different climatic variables but fails miserably over rainfall predictions for Indian summer monsoon rainfall, which is evident from a very low to negative correlation values between predicted and observed rainfall. Towards the fulfilment of second rationale, the statistical relationship is established between the reasonably well predicted climate variables (GEFS) and observed rainfall. The GEFS predictors are treated with multicollinearity and dimensionality reduction techniques, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Statistical relationship is

  20. Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market

    SciTech Connect

    Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

    2008-11-15

    For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

  1. Environmental forecasting and turbulence modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunt, J. C. R.

    This review describes the fundamental assumptions and current methodologies of the two main kinds of environmental forecast; the first is valid for a limited period of time into the future and over a limited space-time ‘target’, and is largely determined by the initial and preceding state of the environment, such as the weather or pollution levels, up to the time when the forecast is issued and by its state at the edges of the region being considered; the second kind provides statistical information over long periods of time and/or over large space-time targets, so that they only depend on the statistical averages of the initial and ‘edge’ conditions. Environmental forecasts depend on the various ways that models are constructed. These range from those based on the ‘reductionist’ methodology (i.e., the combination of separate, scientifically based, models for the relevant processes) to those based on statistical methodologies, using a mixture of data and scientifically based empirical modeling. These are, as a rule, focused on specific quantities required for the forecast. The persistence and predictability of events associated with environmental and turbulent flows and the reasons for variation in the accuracy of their forecasts (of the first and second kinds) are now better understood and better modeled. This has partly resulted from using analogous results of disordered chaotic systems, and using the techniques of calculating ensembles of realizations, ideally involving several different models, so as to incorporate in the probabilistic forecasts a wider range of possible events. The rationale for such an approach needs to be developed. However, other insights have resulted from the recognition of the ordered, though randomly occurring, nature of the persistent motions in these flows, whose scales range from those of synoptic weather patterns (whether storms or ‘blocked’ anticyclones) to small scale vortices. These eigen states can be predicted

  2. Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

  3. Temperature sensitivity of a numerical pollen forecast model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheifinger, Helfried; Meran, Ingrid; Szabo, Barbara; Gallaun, Heinz; Natali, Stefano; Mantovani, Simone

    2016-04-01

    Allergic rhinitis has become a global health problem especially affecting children and adolescence. Timely and reliable warning before an increase of the atmospheric pollen concentration means a substantial support for physicians and allergy suffers. Recently developed numerical pollen forecast models have become means to support the pollen forecast service, which however still require refinement. One of the problem areas concerns the correct timing of the beginning and end of the flowering period of the species under consideration, which is identical with the period of possible pollen emission. Both are governed essentially by the temperature accumulated before the entry of flowering and during flowering. Phenological models are sensitive to a bias of the temperature. A mean bias of -1°C of the input temperature can shift the entry date of a phenological phase for about a week into the future. A bias of such an order of magnitude is still possible in case of numerical weather forecast models. If the assimilation of additional temperature information (e.g. ground measurements as well as satellite-retrieved air / surface temperature fields) is able to reduce such systematic temperature deviations, the precision of the timing of phenological entry dates might be enhanced. With a number of sensitivity experiments the effect of a possible temperature bias on the modelled phenology and the pollen concentration in the atmosphere is determined. The actual bias of the ECMWF IFS 2 m temperature will also be calculated and its effect on the numerical pollen forecast procedure presented.

  4. Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regonda, Satish; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill

    2010-05-01

    We present a statistical procedure that generates short-term streamflow ensemble forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, forecasts operationally produced by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFC). The resulting ensemble forecast provides an estimate of the uncertainty in the single-valued forecast to aid risk-based decision making by the emergency managers and by the users of the forecast products and services. The single-valued forecasts are produced at a 6-hr time step for 5 days into the future, and reflect single-valued short-term quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF) and various run-time modifications (MOD), or manual data assimilation, by human forecasters to reduce various sources of error in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates 5 day-ahead ensemble traces of streamflow from a very parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecasts, QPF and recent streamflow observations. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a 10-year archive of the single-valued river stage forecasts for six forecast points in Oklahoma produced operationally by the Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC). To evaluate the procedure, we carried out dependent and leave-one-year-out cross validation. The resulting ensemble hindcasts are then verified using the Ensemble Verification System (EVS) developed at the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD).

  5. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 1 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 1 compares flight plans based on forecasts with plans based on the verifying analysis from 33 days during the summer and fall of 1979. The comparisons show that: (1) potential fuel savings conservatively estimated to be between 1.2 and 2.5 percent could result from using more timely and accurate weather data in flight planning and route selection; (2) the Suitland forecast generally underestimates wind speeds; and (3) the track selection methodology of many airlines operating on the North Atlantic may not be optimum resulting in their selecting other than the optimum North Atlantic Organized Track about 50 percent of the time.

  6. Forecasting the impact of virtual environment technology on maintenance training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlager, Mark S.; Boman, Duane; Piantanida, Tom; Stephenson, Robert

    1993-01-01

    To assist NASA and the Air Force in determining how and when to invest in virtual environment (VE) technology for maintenance training, we identified possible roles for VE technology in such training, assessed its cost-effectiveness relative to existing technologies, and formulated recommendations for a research agenda that would address instructional and system development issues involved in fielding a VE training system. In the first phase of the study, we surveyed VE developers to forecast capabilities, maturity, and estimated costs for VE component technologies. We then identified maintenance tasks and their training costs through interviews with maintenance technicians, instructors, and training developers. Ten candidate tasks were selected from two classes of maintenance tasks (seven aircraft maintenance and three space maintenance) using five criteria developed to identify types of tasks most likely to benefit from VE training. Three tasks were used as specific cases for cost-benefit analysis. In formulating research recommendations, we considered three aspects of feasibility: technological considerations, cost-effectiveness, and anticipated R&D efforts. In this paper, we describe the major findings in each of these areas and suggest research efforts that we believe will help achieve the goal of a cost-effective VE maintenance training system by the next decade.

  7. Data Analysis, Modeling, and Ensemble Forecasting to Support NOWCAST and Forecast Activities at the Fallon Naval Station

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-09-30

    Fallon NAS area; and 5) To test the forecasting methodology for critical conditions of a dust storm affecting the southwest U.S. including the...control, and analysis of data from four special weather stations in the Fallon Naval Air Station area; (2) A case study of the dust storm in the...prediction, and (2) analysis and prediction of dust storms over the western U.S. Both projects are supported by NOAA and this ONR project. REFERENCES

  8. On the validity of cosmological Fisher matrix forecasts

    SciTech Connect

    Wolz, Laura; Kilbinger, Martin; Weller, Jochen; Giannantonio, Tommaso E-mail: martin.kilbinger@cea.fr E-mail: tommaso@usm.lmu.de

    2012-09-01

    We present a comparison of Fisher matrix forecasts for cosmological probes with Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) posterior likelihood estimation methods. We analyse the performance of future Dark Energy Task Force (DETF) stage-III and stage-IV dark-energy surveys using supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations and weak lensing as probes. We concentrate in particular on the dark-energy equation of state parameters w{sub 0} and w{sub a}. For purely geometrical probes, and especially when marginalising over w{sub a}, we find considerable disagreement between the two methods, since in this case the Fisher matrix can not reproduce the highly non-elliptical shape of the likelihood function. More quantitatively, the Fisher method underestimates the marginalized errors for purely geometrical probes between 30%-70%. For cases including structure formation such as weak lensing, we find that the posterior probability contours from the Fisher matrix estimation are in good agreement with the MCMC contours and the forecasted errors only changing on the 5% level. We then explore non-linear transformations resulting in physically-motivated parameters and investigate whether these parameterisations exhibit a Gaussian behaviour. We conclude that for the purely geometrical probes and, more generally, in cases where it is not known whether the likelihood is close to Gaussian, the Fisher matrix is not the appropriate tool to produce reliable forecasts.

  9. Functional Task Test (FTT)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bloomberg, Jacob J.; Mulavara, Ajitkumar; Peters, Brian T.; Rescheke, Millard F.; Wood, Scott; Lawrence, Emily; Koffman, Igor; Ploutz-Snyder, Lori; Spiering, Barry A.; Feeback, Daniel L.; Platts, Steven H.; Stenger, Michael B.; Lee, Stuart M.C.; Arzeno, Natalia; Feiveson, Alan H.; Ryder, Jeffrey; Garcia, Yamil; Guilliams, Mark E.

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Functional Task Test (FTT), an interdisciplinary testing regimen that has been developed to evaluate astronaut postflight functional performance and related physiological changes. The objectives of the project are: (1) to develop a set of functional tasks that represent critical mission tasks for the Constellation Program, (2) determine the ability to perform these tasks after space flight, (3) Identify the key physiological factors that contribute to functional decrements and (4) Use this information to develop targeted countermeasures.

  10. Measuring the benefits of climate forecasts in predicting PV power production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Felice, Matteo; Alessandri, Andrea; Pollino, Maurizio

    2016-04-01

    Surface solar radiation is an important variable to model and predict solar power output. Having accurate forecast may be of potential use for planning and operational tasks, both at short- and long-time scales. This study examines the predictability of seasonal surface solar radiation comparing ECMWF System4 Seasonal operational forecasts the SARAH Satellite Dataset on the period 1984-2007. This work tries to answer the following question: how useful are climate forecasts in predicting seasonal PV production? The "information layer" provided by climate information is overlapped with 1) the information about the land cover (CLC2006) to consider the potential amount of land available for PV panels and 2) the information about the solar power installed capacity for European region in order to define the areas where an improved forecast could have a bigger impact. All the information layers are summarised by using a simple scalar index (Index of Opportunity) computed for all the European regions for the four seasons. The results are very interesting, in fact the potential benefits of climate forecasts are not (only) related to their statistical skills (e.g. probabilistic scores) but also to the actual and potential installed capacity of solar power. Here, we show that to assess the usefulness of climate forecasts in the energy sector we should use all the relevant information layers, combining them according to the "needs" of the potential users.

  11. Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

  12. Economic consequences of improved temperature forecasts: An experiment with the Florida citrus growers (control group results). Executive summary. [weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    A demonstration experiment is being planned to show that frost and freeze prediction improvements are possible utilizing timely Synchronous Meteorological Satellite temperature measurements and that this information can affect Florida citrus grower operations and decisions so as to significantly reduce the cost for frost and freeze protection and crop losses. The design and implementation of the first phase of an economic experiment which will monitor citrus growers decisions, actions, costs and losses, and meteorological forecasts and actual weather events was carried out. The economic experiment was designed to measure the change in annual protection costs and crop losses which are the direct result of improved temperature forecasts. To estimate the benefits that may result from improved temperature forecasting capability, control and test groups were established with effective separation being accomplished temporally. The control group, utilizing current forecasting capability, was observed during the 1976-77 frost season and the results are reported. A brief overview is given of the economic experiment, the results obtained to date, and the work which still remains to be done.

  13. Satellite freeze forecast system: Executive summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    A satellite-based temperature monitoring and prediction system consisting of a computer controlled acquisition, processing, and display system and the ten automated weather stations called by that computer was developed and transferred to the national weather service. This satellite freeze forecasting system (SFFS) acquires satellite data from either one of two sources, surface data from 10 sites, displays the observed data in the form of color-coded thermal maps and in tables of automated weather station temperatures, computes predicted thermal maps when requested and displays such maps either automatically or manually, archives the data acquired, and makes comparisons with historical data. Except for the last function, SFFS handles these tasks in a highly automated fashion if the user so directs. The predicted thermal maps are the result of two models, one a physical energy budget of the soil and atmosphere interface and the other a statistical relationship between the sites at which the physical model predicts temperatures and each of the pixels of the satellite thermal map.

  14. The very short-term rainfall forecasting for a mountainous watershed by means of an ensemble numerical weather prediction system in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Ming-Chang; Lin, Gwo-Fong

    2017-03-01

    During typhoons, accurate forecasts of rainfall are always desired for various kinds of disaster warning systems to reduce the impact of rainfall-induced disasters. However, rainfall forecasting, especially the very short-term (hourly) rainfall, is one of the most difficult tasks in hydrology due to the high variability in space and time and the complex physical process. In this study, the purpose is to provide effective forecasts of very short-term rainfall by means of the ensemble numerical weather prediction system in Taiwan. To this end, the ensemble forecasts of hourly rainfall from this ensemble numerical weather prediction system are analyzed to evaluate the performance. Furthermore, a methodology, which is based on the principle of analogue prediction, is proposed to effectively process these ensemble forecasts for improving the performance on very short-term rainfall forecasting. To clearly demonstrate the advantage of the proposed methodology, actual application is conducted on a mountainous watershed to yield 1- to 6-h ahead forecasts during typhoon events. The results indicate that the proposed methodology is better performed and more flexible than the conventional one. Generally, the proposed methodology provides improved performance for very short-term rainfall forecasting, especially for 1- to 2-h ahead forecasting. The improved forecasts provided by the proposed methodology are expected to be useful to support disaster warning systems, such as flash-flood, landslide, and debris flow warning systems, during typhoons.

  15. Task Time Tracker

    SciTech Connect

    Cleary, G.

    2013-07-24

    This client-side web app tracks the amount of time spent on arbitrary tasks. It allosw the creation of an unlimited number of arbitrarily named tasks ans via simple interactions, tracks the amount of time spent working on the drfined tasks.

  16. Behavioral Task Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-01-01

    depicting hierarchical behavioral task relationships as well. An extensive list of such tools is given in Wikipedia articles at http...Hierarchical task analysis . In D. Diaper & N. A. Stanton (Eds .), The handbook of task analysis for human-computer interaction (pp. 67-82). Mahwah, NJ

  17. Launching Complex Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Kara J.; Shahan, Emily C.; Gibbons, Lynsey K.; Cobb, Paul A.

    2012-01-01

    Mathematics lessons can take a variety of formats. In this article, the authors discuss lessons organized around complex mathematical tasks. These lessons usually unfold in three phases. First, the task is introduced to students. Second, students work on solving the task. Third, the teacher "orchestrates" a concluding whole-class discussion in…

  18. Selecting Proportional Reasoning Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de la Cruz, Jessica A.

    2013-01-01

    With careful consideration given to task selection, students can construct their own solution strategies to solve complex proportional reasoning tasks while the teacher's instructional goals are still met. Several aspects of the tasks should be considered including their numerical structure, context, difficulty level, and the strategies they are…

  19. Mesoscale model forecast verification during monsoon 2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashrit, Raghavendra; Mohandas, Saji

    2010-08-01

    There have been very few mesoscale modelling studies of the Indian monsoon, with focus on the verification and intercomparison of the operational real time forecasts. With the exception of Das et al (2008), most of the studies in the literature are either the case studies of tropical cyclones and thunderstorms or the sensitivity studies involving physical parameterization or climate simulation studies. Almost all the studies are based on either National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, final analysis fields (NCEP FNL) or the reanalysis data used as initial and lateral boundary conditions for driving the mesoscale model. Here we present a mesoscale model forecast verification and intercomparison study over India involving three mesoscale models: (i) the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA, (ii) the MM5 model developed by NCAR, and (iii) the Eta model of the NCEP, USA. The analysis is carried out for the monsoon season, June to September 2008. This study is unique since it is based entirely on the real time global model forecasts of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) T254 global analysis and forecast system. Based on the evaluation and intercomparison of the mesoscale model forecasts, we recommend the best model for operational real-time forecasts over the Indian region. Although the forecast mean 850 hPa circulation shows realistic monsoon flow and the monsoon trough, the systematic errors over the Arabian Sea indicate an easterly bias to the north (of mean flow) and westerly bias to the south (of mean flow). This suggests that the forecasts feature a southward shift in the monsoon current. The systematic error in the 850 hPa temperature indicates that largely the WRF model forecasts feature warm bias and the MM5 model forecasts feature cold bias. Features common to all the three models include warm bias over northwest India and cold bias over

  20. Transition from Research to Operations: Assessing Value of Experimental Forecast Products within the NWSFO Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lapenta, William M.; Wohlman, Richard; Bradshaw, Tom; Burks, Jason; Jedlovec, Gary; Goodman, Steve; Darden, Chris; Meyer, Paul

    2003-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. To meet long-term program expectations, it is not sufficient simply to give forecasters sophisticated workstations or new forecast products without fully assessing the ways in which they will be utilized. Close communication must be established between the research and operational communities so that developers have a complete understanding of user needs. In turn, forecasters must obtain a more comprehensive knowledge of the modeling and sensing tools available to them. A major goal of the SPoRT Program is to develop metrics and conduct assessment studies with NWS forecasters to evaluate the impacts and benefits of ESE experimental products on forecast skill. At a glance the task seems relatively straightforward. However, performing assessment of experimental products in an operational environment is demanding. Given the tremendous time constraints placed on NWS forecasters, it is imperative that forecaster input be obtained in a concise unobtrusive manor. Great care must also be taken to ensure that forecasters understand their participation will eventually benefit them and WFO operations in general. Two requirements of the assessment plan developed under the SPoRT activity are that it 1) Can be implemented within the WFO environment; and 2) Provide tangible results for BOTH the research and operational communities. Supplemental numerical quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) were chosen as the first experimental SPoRT product to be evaluated during a Pilot Assessment Program conducted 1 May 2003 within the Huntsville AL National Weather Service Forecast Office. Forecast time periods were broken up into six- hour bins ranging from zero to twenty-four hours. Data were made available for display in AWIPS on an

  1. Task-switching cost and repetition priming: two overlooked confounds in the first-set procedure of the Sternberg paradigm and how they affect memory set-size effects.

    PubMed

    Jou, Jerwen

    2014-10-01

    Subjects performed Sternberg-type memory recognition tasks (Sternberg paradigm) in four experiments. Category-instance names were used as learning and testing materials. Sternberg's original experiments demonstrated a linear relation between reaction time (RT) and memory-set size (MSS). A few later studies found no relation, and other studies found a nonlinear relation (logarithmic) between the two variables. These deviations were used as evidence undermining Sternberg's serial scan theory. This study identified two confounding variables in the fixed-set procedure of the paradigm (where multiple probes are presented at test for a learned memory set) that could generate a MSS RT function that was either flat or logarithmic rather than linearly increasing. These two confounding variables were task-switching cost and repetition priming. The former factor worked against smaller memory sets and in favour of larger sets whereas the latter factor worked in the opposite way. Results demonstrated that a null or a logarithmic RT-to-MSS relation could be the artefact of the combined effects of these two variables. The Sternberg paradigm has been used widely in memory research, and a thorough understanding of the subtle methodological pitfalls is crucial. It is suggested that a varied-set procedure (where only one probe is presented at test for a learned memory set) is a more contamination-free procedure for measuring the MSS effects, and that if a fixed-set procedure is used, it is worthwhile examining the RT function of the very first trials across the MSSs, which are presumably relatively free of contamination by the subsequent trials.

  2. Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-05-01

    Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

  3. Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare

  4. The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossa, Andrea; Liechti, Katharina; Zappa, Massimiliano; Bruen, Michael; Germann, Urs; Haase, Günther; Keil, Christian; Krahe, Peter

    2011-05-01

    Quantifying uncertainty in flood forecasting is a difficult task, given the multiple and strongly non-linear model components involved in such a system. Much effort has been and is being invested in the quest of dealing with uncertain precipitation observations and forecasts and the propagation of such uncertainties through hydrological and hydraulic models predicting river discharges and risk for inundation. The COST 731 Action is one of these and constitutes a European initiative which deals with the quantification of forecast uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecast systems. COST 731 addresses three major lines of development: (1) combining meteorological and hydrological models to form a forecast chain, (2) propagating uncertainty information through this chain and make it available to end users in a suitable form, (3) advancing high-resolution numerical weather prediction precipitation forecasts by using non-conventional observations from, for instance, radar to determine details in the initial conditions on scales smaller than what can be resolved by conventional observing systems. Recognizing the interdisciplinarity of the challenge COST 731 has organized its work forming Working Groups at the interfaces between the different scientific disciplines involved, i.e. between observation and atmospheric (and hydrological) modelling (WG-1), between atmospheric and hydrologic modelling (WG-2) and between hydrologic modelling and end-users (WG-3). This paper summarizes the COST 731 activities and its context, provides a review of the recent progress made in dealing with uncertainties in flood forecasting, and sets the scene for the papers of this Thematic Issue. In particular, a bibliometric analysis highlights the strong recent increase in addressing the uncertainty analysis in flood forecasting from an integrated perspective. Such a perspective necessarily involves the area of meteorology, hydrology, and decision making in order to take operational advantage

  5. Support vector machine for day ahead electricity price forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razak, Intan Azmira binti Wan Abdul; Abidin, Izham bin Zainal; Siah, Yap Keem; Rahman, Titik Khawa binti Abdul; Lada, M. Y.; Ramani, Anis Niza binti; Nasir, M. N. M.; Ahmad, Arfah binti

    2015-05-01

    Electricity price forecasting has become an important part of power system operation and planning. In a pool- based electric energy market, producers submit selling bids consisting in energy blocks and their corresponding minimum selling prices to the market operator. Meanwhile, consumers submit buying bids consisting in energy blocks and their corresponding maximum buying prices to the market operator. Hence, both producers and consumers use day ahead price forecasts to derive their respective bidding strategies to the electricity market yet reduce the cost of electricity. However, forecasting electricity prices is a complex task because price series is a non-stationary and highly volatile series. Many factors cause for price spikes such as volatility in load and fuel price as well as power import to and export from outside the market through long term contract. This paper introduces an approach of machine learning algorithm for day ahead electricity price forecasting with Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM). Previous day data of Hourly Ontario Electricity Price (HOEP), generation's price and demand from Ontario power market are used as the inputs for training data. The simulation is held using LSSVMlab in Matlab with the training and testing data of 2004. SVM that widely used for classification and regression has great generalization ability with structured risk minimization principle rather than empirical risk minimization. Moreover, same parameter settings in trained SVM give same results that absolutely reduce simulation process compared to other techniques such as neural network and time series. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the proposed model shows that SVM performs well compared to neural network.

  6. A Hybrid Architecture of Neural Networks for Daily Streamflow Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moradkhani, H.

    2001-12-01

    Streamflow forecasting has always been a challenging task for water resources engineers and managers and the major component of water resources system control. For years numerous techniques have been suggested and employed for streamflow forecasting. Computational Neural Networks (NNs), which are capable of recognizing hidden patterns in data, have recently become popular in many hydrologic applications. In this study, hybrid NN is developed for one step ahead forecasting of daily streamflow. Radial Basis Function (RBF) composed of a group of Gausian functions is used in conjunction with Self-Organizing Feature Map (SOFM) used in data classification. RBF transfers those classified input variables into the desired output estimate. Eight years of daily rainfall, streamflow, and temperature in Salt River basin were used for calibration and validation. Since 60%-80% of the water supply produced by the basin comes in the form of snow, further consideration of the existing time delay of snow melting process in the basin to the watershed outlet is important. Therefore two separated settings were considered in this simulation: the first one only includes several short-term daily rainfall and streamflow in the input sequence; the second setting, on the other hand, includes a longer time period (three-months) of temperature data sequence. Various statistical analyses, such as root mean square error, bias estimate, noise to signal ratio, and correlation coefficients of estimates and observations, were done to evaluate the forecast models. The preliminary results show that the accuracy of the model once considering the long-term effect of the snowmelt is conspicuous with respect to short-term effect. The effectiveness of the proposed and current operational models is evaluated.

  7. Solar flux forecasting using mutual information with an optimal delay

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ashrafi, S.; Conway, D.; Rokni, M.; Sperling, R.; Roszman, L.; Cooley, J.

    1993-01-01

    Solar flux F(sub 10.7) directly affects the atmospheric density, thereby changing the lifetime and prediction of satellite orbits. For this reason, accurate forecasting of F(sub 10.7) is crucial for orbit determination of spacecraft. Our attempts to model and forecast F(sub 10.7) uncovered highly entangled dynamics. We concluded that the general lack of predictability in solar activity arises from its nonlinear nature. Nonlinear dynamics allow us to predict F(sub 10.7) more accurately than is possible using stochastic methods for time scales shorter than a characteristic horizon, and with about the same accuracy as using stochastic techniques when the forecasted data exceed this horizon. The forecast horizon is a function of two dynamical invariants: the attractor dimension and the Lyapunov exponent. In recent years, estimation of the attractor dimension reconstructed from a time series has become an important tool in data analysis. In calculating the invariants of the system, the first necessary step is the reconstruction of the attractor for the system from the time-delayed values of the time series. The choice of the time delay is critical for this reconstruction. For an infinite amount of noise-free data, the time delay can, in principle, be chosen almost arbitrarily. However, the quality of the phase portraits produced using the time-delay technique is determined by the value chosen for the delay time. Fraser and Swinney have shown that a good choice for this time delay is the one suggested by Shaw, which uses the first local minimum of the mutual information rather than the autocorrelation function to determine the time delay. This paper presents a refinement of this criterion and applies the refined technique to solar flux data to produce a forecast of the solar activity.

  8. Towards Optimization of Reservoir Operations for Hydropower Production in East Africa: Application of Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Remote Sensing Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demissie, S. S.; Gebremichael, M.; Hopson, T. M.; Riddle, E. E.; Yeh, W. W. G.

    2015-12-01

    Hydroelectric generation and interconnections are the major priority areas of infrastructure development in Africa. A number of hydropower projects are currently being developed in East Africa in order to meet the energy demands of the fast growing economy in sustainable and climate-resilient manner. However, the performance efficiency of existing hydropower systems in Africa is much lower (about 30% in some cases) than their design capacity. This study proposes a decision support system (DSS) that integrates climate forecasts and remote sensing products into modeling and optimization of the hydropower systems in order to achieve reliable reservoir operations and enhance hydropower production efficiency. The DSS has three main components; climate system, hydrologic and water resources system, and optimization system. The climate system comprises of tools and interfaces for accessing, customizing and integrating climate forecasts and remote sensing data. The North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal retrospective forecasts for the East Africa Power Pool (EAPP) region are compared with the TRMM rainfall estimates and the CPC unified gauged rainfall data. The errors of the NMME seasonal forecasts have portrayed significant spatial and temporal variability in the EAPP region. The root mean square errors of the seasonal forecasts are relatively higher for wetter locations and months. However, the skills of the NMME seasonal forecasts are not significantly depreciating with lead time for the study region. The seasonal forecast errors vary from one model to another. Here, we present the skills of NMME seasonal forecasts, the physical factors and mechanisms that affect the skills. In addition, we discuss our methodology that derives the best seasonal forecasts for the study region from the NMME seasonal forecasts, and show how the climate forecast errors propagate through hydrologic models into hydrological forecasting.

  9. Operational Hydrologic Forecasts in the Columbia River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, K. Y.; Curry, J. A.; Webster, P. J.; Toma, V. E.; Jelinek, M.

    2013-12-01

    average discharge for water years 1879-2012) or greater were observed at TDA during the following periods: 29 March to 12 April, 5 May to 11 May, and 19 June to 29 June. Precipitation and temperature forecasts during these periods are shown along with changes in the model simulated snowpack. We evaluate the performance of the ensemble mean 10 days in advance of each of these three events, and comment on how the distribution of ensemble members affected forecast confidence in each situation.

  10. Affective differences in Iowa Gambling Task performance associated with sexual risk taking and substance use among HIV-positive and HIV-negative men who have sex with men.

    PubMed

    Golub, Sarit A; Thompson, Louisa I; Kowalczyk, William J

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the relationship between emotional distress and decision making in sexual risk and substance use behavior among 174 (ages 25 to 50 years, 53% black) men who have sex with men (MSM), a population at increased risk for HIV. The sample was stratified by HIV status. Measures of affective decision making, depression, anxiety, sex acts, and substance use during the past 60 days were collected at our research center. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine the relationship between age, HIV status, anxiety, depression, and IGT performance in the prediction of number of risky sex acts and substance use days. Among those without anxiety or depression, both number of risky sex acts and drug use days decreased with better performance during risky trials (i.e., last two blocks) of the IGT. For those with higher rates of anxiety, but not depression, IGT risk trial performance and risky sex acts increased concomitantly. Anxiety also interacted with IGT performance across all trials to predict substance use, such that anxiety was associated with greater substance use among those with better IGT performance. The opposite was true for those with depression, but only during risk trials. HIV-positive participants reported fewer substance use days than HIV-negative participants, but there was no difference in association between behavior and IGT performance by HIV status. Our findings suggest that anxiety may exacerbate risk-taking behavior when affective decision-making ability is intact. The relationship between affective decision making and risk taking may be sensitive to different profiles of emotional distress, as well as behavioral context. Investigations of affective decision making in sexual risk taking and substance use should examine different distress profiles separately, with implications for HIV prevention efforts.

  11. Skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat and advance dates in a dynamical forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigmond, M.; Reader, M. C.; Flato, G. M.; Merryfield, W. J.; Tivy, A.

    2016-12-01

    The need for skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice is rapidly increasing. Technology to perform such forecasts with coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice systems has only recently become available, with previous skill evaluations mainly limited to area-integrated quantities. Here we show, based on a large set of retrospective ensemble model forecasts, that a dynamical forecast system produces skillful seasonal forecasts of local sea ice retreat and advance dates - variables that are of great interest to a wide range of end users. Advance dates can generally be skillfully predicted at longer lead times ( 5 months on average) than retreat dates ( 3 months). The skill of retreat date forecasts mainly stems from persistence of initial sea ice anomalies, whereas advance date forecasts benefit from longer time scale and more predictable variability in ocean temperatures. These results suggest that further investments in the development of dynamical seasonal forecast systems may result in significant socioeconomic benefits.

  12. How rolling forecasting facilitates dynamic, agile planning.

    PubMed

    Miller, Debra; Allen, Michael; Schnittger, Stephanie; Hackman, Theresa

    2013-11-01

    Rolling forecasting may be used to replace or supplement the annual budget process. The rolling forecast typically builds on the organization's strategic financial plan, focusing on the first three years of plan projections and comparing the strategic financial plan assumptions with the organization's expected trajectory. Leaders can then identify and respond to gaps between the rolling forecast and the strategic financial plan on an ongoing basis.

  13. Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station: Phase I Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This report describes the results of the ANU's (Applied Meteorology Unit) Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds. The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The Keith Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A 7 year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. In all climatologies, the average and peak wind speeds were highly variable in time. This indicated that the development of a peak wind forecasting tool would be difficult. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. The climatologies and PDFs provide tools with which to make peak wind forecasts that are critical to safe operations.

  14. Testing Idiom Comprehension in Aphasic Patients: The Effects of Task and Idiom Type

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Papagno, C.; Caporali, A.

    2007-01-01

    Idiom comprehension in 15 aphasic patients was assessed with three tasks: a sentence-to-picture matching task, a sentence-to-word matching task and an oral definition task. The results of all three tasks showed that the idiom comprehension in aphasic patients was impaired compared to that of the control group, and was significantly affected by the…

  15. Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crochemore, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-09-01

    Meteorological centres make sustained efforts to provide seasonal forecasts that are increasingly skilful, which has the potential to benefit streamflow forecasting. Seasonal streamflow forecasts can help to take anticipatory measures for a range of applications, such as water supply or hydropower reservoir operation and drought risk management. This study assesses the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in France to provide insights into the way bias correcting precipitation forecasts can improve the skill of streamflow forecasts at extended lead times. We apply eight variants of bias correction approaches to the precipitation forecasts prior to generating the streamflow forecasts. The approaches are based on the linear scaling and the distribution mapping methods. A daily hydrological model is applied at the catchment scale to transform precipitation into streamflow. We then evaluate the skill of raw (without bias correction) and bias-corrected precipitation and streamflow ensemble forecasts in 16 catchments in France. The skill of the ensemble forecasts is assessed in reliability, sharpness, accuracy and overall performance. A reference prediction system, based on historical observed precipitation and catchment initial conditions at the time of forecast (i.e. ESP method) is used as benchmark in the computation of the skill. The results show that, in most catchments, raw seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts are often more skilful than the conventional ESP method in terms of sharpness. However, they are not significantly better in terms of reliability. Forecast skill is generally improved when applying bias correction. Two bias correction methods show the best performance for the studied catchments, each method being more successful in improving specific attributes of the forecasts: the simple linear scaling of monthly values contributes mainly to increasing forecast sharpness and accuracy, while the empirical distribution mapping

  16. Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-04-01

    Because aftershock occurrences can cause significant seismic risks for a considerable time after the main shock, prospective forecasting of the intermediate-term aftershock activity as soon as possible is important. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model with the maximum likelihood estimate effectively reproduces general aftershock activity including secondary or higher-order aftershocks and can be employed for the forecasting. However, because we cannot always expect the accurate parameter estimation from incomplete early aftershock data where many events are missing, such forecasting using only a single estimated parameter set (plug-in forecasting) can frequently perform poorly. Therefore, we here propose Bayesian forecasting that combines the forecasts by the ETAS model with various probable parameter sets given the data. By conducting forecasting tests of 1 month period aftershocks based on the first 1 day data after the main shock as an example of the early intermediate-term forecasting, we show that the Bayesian forecasting performs better than the plug-in forecasting on average in terms of the log-likelihood score. Furthermore, to improve forecasting of large aftershocks, we apply a nonparametric (NP) model using magnitude data during the learning period and compare its forecasting performance with that of the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) formula. We show that the NP forecast performs better than the G-R formula in some cases but worse in other cases. Therefore, robust forecasting can be obtained by employing an ensemble forecast that combines the two complementary forecasts. Our proposed method is useful for a stable unbiased intermediate-term assessment of aftershock probabilities.

  17. Assessing probabilistic forecasts of volcanic eruption onsets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bebbington, Mark S.

    2013-12-01

    A method for assessing prospectively the quality of a suite of eruption forecasts is proposed. Any forecast of the next eruption onset from a polygenetic volcano can be converted into a probability distribution for the elapsed time since the forecast is made. This probability distribution, which effectively becomes a statistical P value when the observation is "plugged in," will thus itself have a uniform distribution under the null hypothesis that the forecast correctly describes the process. Given sufficient realizations, which may be on the same or different volcanoes, we can use standard statistical tests, such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, to determine if the forecasts are consistent with the model(s). The use of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test enables currently open forecasts to be included via the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimator. While consistent underestimates (or overestimates) of the repose length will result in a median greater (or less) than , the method also assesses whether the method assigns the correct degree of aleatory variability to the forecast. Note that it is possible for the forecasts to be less precise than claimed. This would be indicated by the median of the sample being around , but the quartiles being well outside the interval, for example. The method is illustrated on the author's library of forecasts dating back to 1994, including renewal models and other point processes, on a gallery of approximately 20 volcanoes including Etna, Aso, and Ruapehu.

  18. Optimized Flood Forecasts Using a Statistical Enemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silver, Micha; Fredj, Erick

    2016-04-01

    The method presented here assembles an optimized flood forecast from a set of consecutive WRF-Hydro simulations by applying coefficients which we derive from straightforward statistical procedures. Several government and research institutions that produce climate data offer ensemble forecasts, which merge predictions from different models to gain a more accurate fit to observed data. Existing ensemble forecasts present climate and weather predictions only. In this research we propose a novel approach to constructing hydrological ensembles for flood forecasting. The ensemble flood forecast is created by combining predictions from the same model, but initiated at different times. An operative flood forecasting system, run by the Israeli Hydrological Service, produces flood forecasts twice daily with a 72 hour forecast period. By collating the output from consecutive simulation runs we have access to multiple overlapping forecasts. We then apply two statistical procedures to blend these consecutive forecasts, resulting in a very close fit to observed flood runoff. We first employ cross-correlation with a time lag to determine a time shift for each of the original, consecutive forecasts. This shift corrects for two possible sources of error: slow or fast moving weather fronts in the base climate data; and mis-calibrations of the WRF-Hydro model in determining the rate of flow of surface runoff and in channels. We apply this time shift to all consecutive forecasts, then run a linear regression with the observed runoff data as the dependent variable and all shifted forecasts as the predictor variables. The solution to the linear regression equation is a set of coefficients that corrects the amplitude errors in the forecasts. These resulting regression coefficients are then applied to the consecutive forecasts producing a statistical ensemble which, by design, closely matches the observed runoff. After performing this procedure over many storm events in the Negev region

  19. Visualization of ocean forecast in BYTHOS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuk, E.; Zodiatis, G.; Nikolaidis, A.; Stylianou, S.; Karaolia, A.

    2016-08-01

    The Cyprus Oceanography Center has been constantly searching for new ideas for developing and implementing innovative methods and new developments concerning the use of Information Systems in Oceanography, to suit both the Center's monitoring and forecasting products. Within the frame of this scope two major online managing and visualizing data systems have been developed and utilized, those of CYCOFOS and BYTHOS. The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System - CYCOFOS provides a variety of operational predictions such as ultra high, high and medium resolution ocean forecasts in the Levantine Basin, offshore and coastal sea state forecasts in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, tide forecasting in the Mediterranean, ocean remote sensing in the Eastern Mediterranean and coastal and offshore monitoring. As a rich internet application, BYTHOS enables scientists to search, visualize and download oceanographic data online and in real time. The recent improving of BYTHOS system is the extension with access and visualization of CYCOFOS data and overlay forecast fields and observing data. The CYCOFOS data are stored at OPENDAP Server in netCDF format. To search, process and visualize it the php and python scripts were developed. Data visualization is achieved through Mapserver. The BYTHOS forecast access interface allows to search necessary forecasting field by recognizing type, parameter, region, level and time. Also it provides opportunity to overlay different forecast and observing data that can be used for complex analyze of sea basin aspects.

  20. Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

  1. The Economic Value of Air Quality Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson-Sumo, Tasha

    Both long-term and daily air quality forecasts provide an essential component to human health and impact costs. According the American Lung Association, the estimated current annual cost of air pollution related illness in the United States, adjusted for inflation (3% per year), is approximately $152 billion. Many of the risks such as hospital visits and morality are associated with poor air quality days (where the Air Quality Index is greater than 100). Groups such as sensitive groups become more susceptible to the resulting conditions and more accurate forecasts would help to take more appropriate precautions. This research focuses on evaluating the utility of air quality forecasting in terms of its potential impacts by building on air quality forecasting and economical metrics. Our analysis includes data collected during the summertime ozone seasons between 2010 and 2012 from air quality models for the Washington, DC/Baltimore, MD region. The metrics that are relevant to our analysis include: (1) The number of times that a high ozone or particulate matter (PM) episode is correctly forecasted, (2) the number of times that high ozone or PM episode is forecasted when it does not occur and (3) the number of times when the air quality forecast predicts a cleaner air episode when the air was observed to have high ozone or PM. Our collection of data included available air quality model forecasts of ozone and particulate matter data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s AIRNOW as well as observational data of ozone and particulate matter from Clean Air Partners. We evaluated the performance of the air quality forecasts with that of the observational data and found that the forecast models perform well for the Baltimore/Washington region and the time interval observed. We estimate the potential amount for the Baltimore/Washington region accrues to a savings of up to 5,905 lives and 5.9 billion dollars per year. This total assumes perfect compliance with

  2. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  3. Wheat yield forecasts using LANDSAT data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colwell, J. E.; Rice, D. P.; Nalepka, R. F.

    1977-01-01

    Several considerations of winter wheat yield prediction using LANDSAT data were discussed. In addition, a simple technique which permits direct early season forecasts of wheat production was described.

  4. An Analytical Framework for Flood Water Conservation Considering Forecast Uncertainty and Acceptable Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, W.; Zhang, C.

    2015-12-01

    Reservoir water levels are usually not allowed to exceed the flood limited water level (FLWL) during flood season, which neglects the meteorological and real-time forecast information and leads to the great waste of water resources. With the development of weather forecasting, hydrologic modeling, and hydro-climatic teleconnection, the streamflow forecast precision have improved a lot, which provides the technical support for the flood water utilization. This paper addresses how much flood water can be conserved for use after the flood season through the operation of reservoir based on uncertain forecast information by taking into account the residual flood control capacity (the difference between flood conveyance capacity and the expected inflow in a lead time). A two-stage model for dynamic control of the flood limited water level (the maximum allowed water level during the flood season, DC-FLWL) is established considering forecast uncertainty and acceptable flood risk. It is found that DC-FLWL is applicable when the reservoir inflow ranges from small to medium levels of the historical records, while both forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk in the downstream affect the feasible space of DC-FLWL. As forecast uncertainty increases (under a given risk level) or as acceptable risk level decreases (under a given forecast uncertainty level), the minimum required safety margin for flood control increases, and the chance for DC-FLWL decreases. The derived hedging rules from the modeling framework illustrate either the dominant role of water conservation or flood control or the tradeoff between the two objectives under different levels of forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk. These rules may provide useful guidelines for conserving water from flood, especially in the area with heavy water stress.

  5. A 20th century forecast of 21st century healthcare trends.

    PubMed

    Naisbitt, J

    2000-02-01

    John Naisbitt, preeminent social forecaster and author of Megatrends, the New York Times 1982 number-one bestseller, has been accurately describing the future for the past three decades. This June, Naisbitt will share some his world view with individuals attending HFMA's Annual National Institute in Orlando, Florida, where he will give the opening keynote address. On December 31, 1999, while most of the world waited for the Y2K horizon to spread across the globe, Naisbitt spoke with Healthcare Financial Management about the future, particularly with respect to some of the subjects he tackles in his most recent book, HIGH TECH.high touch. Specifically, does technology free us from the constraints of the physical world, or does it tie us down to machines? Does it save time in our day-to-day lives or merely create a void we feel compelled to fill with even more tasks and responsibilities? How does it affect the delivery of health care? And with recent developments in genetic engineering now raising the possibility of a future that will someday be free of birth defects, disabilities, and disease, what then will be natural, what will be artificial, and what will it truly mean to be human?

  6. Effects of Variations in Task Design on Mathematics Teachers' Learning Experiences: A Case of a Sorting Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koichu, Boris; Zaslavsky, Orit; Dolev, Lea

    2016-01-01

    The goal of the study presented in this article was to examine how variations in task design may affect mathematics teachers' learning experiences. The study focuses on sorting tasks, i.e., learning tasks that require grouping a given set of mathematical items, in as many ways as possible, according to different criteria suggested by the learners.…

  7. Spatial cognition and memory: a reversible lesion with lidocaine into the anteromedial/posterior parietal cortex (AM/PPC) affects differently working and long-term memory on two foraging tasks.

    PubMed

    Espina-Marchant, Pablo; Pinto-Hamuy, Teresa; Bustamante, Diego; Morales, Paola; Robles, Luis; Herrera-Marschitz, Mario

    2006-01-01

    Place memory is relevant for exploration and forage behaviour. When food supply is dispersed, a win-shift has advantage over a win-stay strategy. In the Olton Octagonal Maze, the rat follows a win-shift strategy using working memory. However, in the Olton 4x4 version, the rat follows a win-stay strategy, using both working and long-term memories. It has been suggested that the neocortex is required for the resolution of tasks demanding long-term, but not for that demanding working memory alone. The role of anteromedial/posterior parietal cortex (AM/PPC) was investigated here, using a reversible lesion induced by intracerebral lidocaine infusion. Long-Evans rats were implanted with guide cannulae into the AM/PPC and trained in an Olton 4x4 maze, counting working and long-term memory errors after a delay. Then, the animals were infused with lidocaine or saline during the delay phase and tested for three days. Another series of animals, treated as before, was tested in an Olton Octagonal Maze and subjected to the same injection schedule. In the Olton 4x4 Maze, lidocaine produced a significant increase in working and long-term memory errors, compared to saline and post-lidocaine conditions. In contrast, in the Olton Octagonal Maze, lidocaine did not induce any effect on working memory errors. Thus, AM/PPC is required when both working with previous information and long-term memories are needed, but not when only working memory is required, as it happens under ethological conditions. Whenever food supply is dispersed, a win-shift strategy is preferable.

  8. If this then that: an introduction to automated task services.

    PubMed

    Hoy, Matthew B

    2015-01-01

    This article explores automated task services, a type of website that allows users to create rules that are triggered by activity on one website and perform a task on another site. The most well-known automated task service is If This Then That (IFTTT), but recently a large number of these services have sprung up. These services can be used to connect websites, apps, business services, and even devices such as phones and home automation equipment. This allows for millions of possible combinations of rules, triggers, and actions. Librarians can put these services to use in many ways, from automating social media postings to remembering to bring their umbrella when rain is in the forecast. A list of popular automated task services is included, as well as a number of ideas for using these services in libraries.

  9. Mental Models of Software Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hihn, J.; Griesel, A.; Bruno, K.; Fouser, T.; Tausworthe, R.

    1993-01-01

    The majority of software engineers resist the use of the currently available cost models. One problem is that the mathematical and statistical models that are currently available do not correspond with the mental models of the software engineers. In an earlier JPL funded study (Hihn and Habib-agahi, 1991) it was found that software engineers prefer to use analogical or analogy-like techniques to derive size and cost estimates, whereas curren CER's hide any analogy in the regression equations. In addition, the currently available models depend upon information which is not available during early planning when the most important forecasts must be made.

  10. National Severe Storms Forecast Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    The principal mission of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) is to maintain a continuous watch of weather developments that are capable of producing severe local storms, including tornadoes, and to prepare and issue messages designated as either Weather Outlooks or Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watches for dissemination to the public and aviation services. In addition to its assigned responsibility at the national level, the NSSFC is involved in a number of programs at the regional and local levels. Subsequent subsections and paragraphs describe the NSSFC, its users, inputs, outputs, interfaces, capabilities, workload, problem areas, and future plans in more detail.

  11. Forecast Mekong: navigating changing waters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, Janine

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using research and data from the Mekong River Delta in Southeast Asia to compare restoration, conservation, and management efforts there with those done in other major river deltas, such as the Mississippi River Delta in the United States. The project provides a forum to engage regional partners in the Mekong Basin countries to share data and support local research efforts. Ultimately, Forecast Mekong will lead to more informed decisions about how to make the Mekong and Mississippi Deltas resilient in the face of climate change, economic stresses, and other impacts.

  12. Earthquake Scaling, Simulation and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sachs, Michael Karl

    Earthquakes are among the most devastating natural events faced by society. In 2011, just two events, the magnitude 6.3 earthquake in Christcurch New Zealand on February 22, and the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake off the coast of Japan on March 11, caused a combined total of $226 billion in economic losses. Over the last decade, 791,721 deaths were caused by earthquakes. Yet, despite their impact, our ability to accurately predict when earthquakes will occur is limited. This is due, in large part, to the fact that the fault systems that produce earthquakes are non-linear. The result being that very small differences in the systems now result in very big differences in the future, making forecasting difficult. In spite of this, there are patterns that exist in earthquake data. These patterns are often in the form of frequency-magnitude scaling relations that relate the number of smaller events observed to the number of larger events observed. In many cases these scaling relations show consistent behavior over a wide range of scales. This consistency forms the basis of most forecasting techniques. However, the utility of these scaling relations is limited by the size of the earthquake catalogs which, especially in the case of large events, are fairly small and limited to a few 100 years of events. In this dissertation I discuss three areas of earthquake science. The first is an overview of scaling behavior in a variety of complex systems, both models and natural systems. The focus of this area is to understand how this scaling behavior breaks down. The second is a description of the development and testing of an earthquake simulator called Virtual California designed to extend the observed catalog of earthquakes in California. This simulator uses novel techniques borrowed from statistical physics to enable the modeling of large fault systems over long periods of time. The third is an evaluation of existing earthquake forecasts, which focuses on the Regional

  13. Effects of instructed focus and task difficulty on concurrent walking and cognitive task performance in healthy young adults.

    PubMed

    Kelly, Valerie E; Janke, Alexis A; Shumway-Cook, Anne

    2010-11-01

    Dual task paradigms can be used to examine the interactions between cognition and the control of posture and gait. Measuring and interpreting changes in dual task performance is challenging, however, because many factors can influence performance. This study examined the effects of instructed focus and walking task difficulty, and the interaction between these factors, on dual task performance in healthy young adults. Fifteen participants performed a cognitive task while walking with either a usual base or a narrow base of support. Participants were instructed to focus on either the cognitive task or walking. Trade-offs both within and between tasks were assessed using the modified attention allocation index and the performance operating characteristic. Instructed focus influenced both the cognitive task and walking. Performance on the cognitive task was faster with instructions to focus on the cognitive task, and walking was faster (and more accurate in the narrow-base condition) with instructions to focus on walking. Walking task difficulty did not affect cognitive performance but did affect walking, with faster walking in the usual-base versus narrow-base condition. There was evidence of an interaction, with greater effects of instructed focus on the cognitive task during usual versus narrow-base walking. These results support the idea that the ability to flexibly shift attention allocation and task performance in response to instructions depends on the difficulty of the postural control task. The modified attention allocation index and the performance operating characteristic were instrumental in fully characterizing trade-offs between and within tasks in order to understand dual task performance changes. A clearer understanding of the factors that affect dual task walking and the interactions between these factors has important implications for the assessment of dual task performance in both clinical and research settings.

  14. Task mapping for non-contiguous allocations.

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Vitus Joseph; Bunde, David P.; Ebbers, Johnathan; Price, Nicholas W.; Swank, Matthew.; Feer, Stefan P.; Rhodes, Zachary D.

    2013-02-01

    This paper examines task mapping algorithms for non-contiguously allocated parallel jobs. Several studies have shown that task placement affects job running time for both contiguously and non-contiguously allocated jobs. Traditionally, work on task mapping either uses a very general model where the job has an arbitrary communication pattern or assumes that jobs are allocated contiguously, making them completely isolated from each other. A middle ground between these two cases is the mapping problem for non-contiguous jobs having a specific communication pattern. We propose several task mapping algorithms for jobs with a stencil communication pattern and evaluate them using experiments and simulations. Our strategies improve the running time of a MiniApp by as much as 30% over a baseline strategy. Furthermore, this improvement increases markedly with the job size, demonstrating the importance of task mapping as systems grow toward exascale.

  15. Transport Task Force Leadership, Task 4

    SciTech Connect

    Callen, J.D.

    1991-07-01

    The Transport Task Force (TTF) was initiated as a broad-based US magnetic fusion community activity during the fall of 1988 to focus attention on and encourage development of an increased understanding of anomalous transport in tokamaks. The overall TTF goal is to make progress on Characterizing, Understanding and Identifying how to Reduce plasma transport in tokamaks -- to CUIR transport.

  16. Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Yang, Wan; Cowling, Benjamin J; Lau, Eric H Y; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2015-07-01

    Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions in real-time. However, in subtropical and tropical regions, influenza epidemics can occur throughout the year, making routine forecast of influenza more challenging. Here we develop and report forecast systems that are able to predict irregular non-seasonal influenza epidemics, using either the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter or a modified particle filter in conjunction with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. We applied these model-filter systems to retrospectively forecast influenza epidemics in Hong Kong from January 1998 to December 2013, including the 2009 pandemic. The forecast systems were able to forecast both the peak timing and peak magnitude for 44 epidemics in 16 years caused by individual influenza strains (i.e., seasonal influenza A(H1N1), pandemic A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B), as well as 19 aggregate epidemics caused by one or more of these influenza strains. Average forecast accuracies were 37% (for both peak timing and magnitude) at 1-3 week leads, and 51% (peak timing) and 50% (peak magnitude) at 0 lead. Forecast accuracy increased as the spread of a given forecast ensemble decreased; the forecast accuracy for peak timing (peak magnitude) increased up to 43% (45%) for H1N1, 93% (89%) for H3N2, and 53% (68%) for influenza B at 1-3 week leads. These findings suggest that accurate forecasts can be made at least 3 weeks in advance for subtropical and tropical regions.

  17. Modeled Forecasts of Dengue Fever in San Juan, Puerto Rico Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, C.; Quattrochi, D. A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is an important mosquito transmitted disease that is strongly influenced by meteorological and environmental conditions. Recent research has focused on forecasting DF case numbers based on meteorological data. However, these forecasting tools have generally relied on empirical models that require long DF time series to train. Additionally, their accuracy has been tested retrospectively, using past meteorological data. Consequently, the operational utility of the forecasts are still in question because the error associated with weather and climate forecasts are not reflected in the results. Using up-to-date weekly dengue case numbers for model parameterization and weather forecast data as meteorological input, we produced weekly forecasts of DF cases in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Each week, the past weeks' case counts were used to re-parameterize a process-based DF model driven with updated weather forecast data to generate forecasts of DF case numbers. Real-time weather forecast data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system enhanced using additional high-resolution NASA satellite data. This methodology was conducted in a weekly iterative process with each DF forecast being evaluated using county-level DF cases reported by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. The one week DF forecasts were accurate especially considering the two sources of model error. First, weather forecasts were sometimes inaccurate and generally produced lower than observed temperatures. Second, the DF model was often overly influenced by the previous weeks DF case numbers, though this phenomenon could be lessened by increasing the number of simulations included in the forecast. Although these results are promising, we would like to develop a methodology to produce longer range forecasts so that public health workers can better prepare for dengue epidemics.

  18. [Population forecasts for the Netherlands, 1986-2035].

    PubMed

    Cruijsen, H

    1987-02-01

    Results of the 1986 official population forecasts for the Netherlands are presented, and the assumptions made in their preparation are described. Comparisons are made with forecasts for 1985. Three alternative variations of the forecasts are included. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

  19. 48 CFR 232.072-3 - Cash flow forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... problems. (c) Single or one-time cash flow forecasts are of limited forecasting power. As such, they should... by comparing a series of previous actual cash flows with the corresponding forecasts and...

  20. Developing a Peak Wind Probability Forecast Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, WInifred; Roeder, William

    2007-01-01

    This conference presentation describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations. The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

  1. The Effect of Cognitive-Task Type and Walking Speed on Dual-Task Gait in Healthy Adults.

    PubMed

    Wrightson, James G; Ross, Emma Z; Smeeton, Nicholas J

    2016-01-01

    In a number of studies in which a dual-task gait paradigm was used, researchers reported a relationship between cognitive function and gait. However, it is not clear to what extent these effects are dependent on the type of cognitive and walking tasks used in the dual-task paradigm. This study examined whether stride-time variability (STV) and trunk range of motion (RoM) are affected by the type of cognitive task and walking speed used during dual-task gait. Participants walked at both their preferred walking speed and at 25% of their preferred walking speed and performed a serial subtraction and a working memory task at both speeds. Although both tasks significantly reduced STV at both walking speeds, there was no difference between the two tasks. Trunk RoM was affected by the walking speed and type of cognitive task used during dual-task gait: Mediolateral trunk RoM was increased at the slow walking speed, and anterior-posterior trunk RoM was higher only when performing the serial subtraction task at the slow walking speed. The reduction of STV, regardless of cognitive-task type, suggests that healthy adults may redirect cognitive processes away from gait toward cognitive-task performance during dual-task gait.

  2. Streamflow forecasting using functional regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masselot, Pierre; Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

    2016-07-01

    Streamflow, as a natural phenomenon, is continuous in time and so are the meteorological variables which influence its variability. In practice, it can be of interest to forecast the whole flow curve instead of points (daily or hourly). To this end, this paper introduces the functional linear models and adapts it to hydrological forecasting. More precisely, functional linear models are regression models based on curves instead of single values. They allow to consider the whole process instead of a limited number of time points or features. We apply these models to analyse the flow volume and the whole streamflow curve during a given period by using precipitations curves. The functional model is shown to lead to encouraging results. The potential of functional linear models to detect special features that would have been hard to see otherwise is pointed out. The functional model is also compared to the artificial neural network approach and the advantages and disadvantages of both models are discussed. Finally, future research directions involving the functional model in hydrology are presented.

  3. Motor hysteresis in a sequential grasping and pointing task is absent in task-critical joints.

    PubMed

    Schütz, Christoph; Weigelt, Matthias; Schack, Thomas

    2017-03-01

    In a prior study (Schütz et al. in Exp Brain Res 2016. doi: 10.1007/s00221-016-4608-6 ), we demonstrated that the cognitive cost of motor planning did not differ in a vertical pointing and grasping task. It was unclear whether the similar cost implied that both tasks required the same number of independent degrees of freedom (IDOFs) or that the number of IDOFs did not affect motor planning. To differentiate between both cases, a reanalysis of the prior data was conducted. The number of IDOFs in the pointing and grasping tasks was computed by factor analysis. In both tasks, two IDOFs were used, which was the minimum number required for position control. This indicates that hand alignment in the grasping task did not require an additional IDOF. No conclusions regarding the link between the cognitive cost of motor planning and the number of IDOFs could be drawn. A subset of task-critical joint angles was not affected by motor hysteresis. This indicates that a joint's susceptibility to motor hysteresis depends on its relevance to the task goal. In task-critical joints, planning cost minimization by motor plan reuse is suppressed in favor of the task goal.

  4. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

    2009-01-01

    Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and forecasters from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps forecasters estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this task, SMG tasked the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil Forecast Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.

  5. The carry-over effect of competition in task-sharing: evidence from the joint Simon task.

    PubMed

    Iani, Cristina; Anelli, Filomena; Nicoletti, Roberto; Rubichi, Sandro

    2014-01-01

    The Simon effect, that is the advantage of the spatial correspondence between stimulus and response locations when stimulus location is a task-irrelevant dimension, occurs even when the task is performed together by two participants, each performing a go/no-go task. Previous studies showed that this joint Simon effect, considered by some authors as a measure of self-other integration, does not emerge when during task performance co-actors are required to compete. The present study investigated whether and for how long competition experienced during joint performance of one task can affect performance in a following joint Simon task. In two experiments, we required pairs of participants to perform together a joint Simon task, before and after jointly performing together an unrelated non-spatial task (the Eriksen flanker task). In Experiment 1, participants always performed the joint Simon task under neutral instructions, before and after performing the joint flanker task in which they were explicitly required either to cooperate with (i.e., cooperative condition) or to compete against a co-actor (i.e., competitive condition). In Experiment 2, they were required to compete during the joint flanker task and to cooperate during the subsequent joint Simon task. Competition experienced in one task affected the way the subsequent joint task was performed, as revealed by the lack of the joint Simon effect, even though, during the Simon task participants were not required to compete (Experiment 1). However, prior competition no longer affected subsequent performance if a new goal that created positive interdependence between the two agents was introduced (Experiment 2). These results suggest that the emergence of the joint Simon effect is significantly influenced by how the goals of the co-acting individuals are related, with the effect of competition extending beyond the specific competitive setting and affecting subsequent interactions.

  6. Chesapeake Bay hypoxic volume forecasts and results

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scavia, Donald; Evans, Mary Anne

    2013-01-01

    The 2013 Forecast - Given the average Jan-May 2013 total nitrogen load of 162,028 kg/day, this summer’s hypoxia volume forecast is 6.1 km3, slightly smaller than average size for the period of record and almost the same as 2012. The late July 2013 measured volume was 6.92 km3.

  7. Methods and Techniques of Revenue Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caruthers, J. Kent; Wentworth, Cathi L.

    1997-01-01

    Revenue forecasting is the critical first step in most college and university budget-planning processes. While it seems a straightforward exercise, effective forecasting requires consideration of a number of interacting internal and external variables, including demographic trends, economic conditions, and broad social priorities. The challenge…

  8. Toward a Marine Ecological Forecasting System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-06-01

    coral bleaching , living resource distribution, and pathogen progression). An operational ecological forecasting system depends upon the assimilation of...space scales (e.g., harmful algal blooms, dissolved oxygen concentration (hypoxia), water quality/beach closures, coral bleaching , living resource...advance. Two beaches in Lake Michigan have been selected for initial implementation. Forecasting Coral Bleaching in relation to Ocean Temperatures

  9. Climate forecasts for corn producer decision making

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Corn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate forecasts, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved forecasts, could substantially reduce uncertai...

  10. Analog forecasting with dynamics-adapted kernels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Zhizhen; Giannakis, Dimitrios

    2016-09-01

    Analog forecasting is a nonparametric technique introduced by Lorenz in 1969 which predicts the evolution of states of a dynamical system (or observables defined on the states) by following the evolution of the sample in a historical record of observations which most closely resembles the current initial data. Here, we introduce a suite of forecasting methods which improve traditional analog forecasting by combining ideas from kernel methods developed in harmonic analysis and machine learning and state-space reconstruction for dynamical systems. A key ingredient of our approach is to replace single-analog forecasting with weighted ensembles of analogs constructed using local similarity kernels. The kernels used here employ a number of dynamics-dependent features designed to improve forecast skill, including Takens’ delay-coordinate maps (to recover information in the initial data lost through partial observations) and a directional dependence on the dynamical vector field generating the data. Mathematically, our approach is closely related to kernel methods for out-of-sample extension of functions, and we discuss alternative strategies based on the Nyström method and the multiscale Laplacian pyramids technique. We illustrate these techniques in applications to forecasting in a low-order deterministic model for atmospheric dynamics with chaotic metastability, and interannual-scale forecasting in the North Pacific sector of a comprehensive climate model. We find that forecasts based on kernel-weighted ensembles have significantly higher skill than the conventional approach following a single analog.

  11. Techniques for Forecasting Air Passenger Traffic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taneja, N.

    1972-01-01

    The basic techniques of forecasting the air passenger traffic are outlined. These techniques can be broadly classified into four categories: judgmental, time-series analysis, market analysis and analytical. The differences between these methods exist, in part, due to the degree of formalization of the forecasting procedure. Emphasis is placed on describing the analytical method.

  12. Forecasting Enrollments with Fuzzy Time Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Song, Qiang; Chissom, Brad S.

    The concept of fuzzy time series is introduced and used to forecast the enrollment of a university. Fuzzy time series, an aspect of fuzzy set theory, forecasts enrollment using a first-order time-invariant model. To evaluate the model, the conventional linear regression technique is applied and the predicted values obtained are compared to the…

  13. Why preferring parametric forecasting to nonparametric methods?

    PubMed

    Jabot, Franck

    2015-05-07

    A recent series of papers by Charles T. Perretti and collaborators have shown that nonparametric forecasting methods can outperform parametric methods in noisy nonlinear systems. Such a situation can arise because of two main reasons: the instability of parametric inference procedures in chaotic systems which can lead to biased parameter estimates, and the discrepancy between the real system dynamics and the modeled one, a problem that Perretti and collaborators call "the true model myth". Should ecologists go on using the demanding parametric machinery when trying to forecast the dynamics of complex ecosystems? Or should they rely on the elegant nonparametric approach that appears so promising? It will be here argued that ecological forecasting based on parametric models presents two key comparative advantages over nonparametric approaches. First, the likelihood of parametric forecasting failure can be diagnosed thanks to simple Bayesian model checking procedures. Second, when parametric forecasting is diagnosed to be reliable, forecasting uncertainty can be estimated on virtual data generated with the fitted to data parametric model. In contrast, nonparametric techniques provide forecasts with unknown reliability. This argumentation is illustrated with the simple theta-logistic model that was previously used by Perretti and collaborators to make their point. It should convince ecologists to stick to standard parametric approaches, until methods have been developed to assess the reliability of nonparametric forecasting.

  14. Kp Forecast Model Using Unscented Kalman Filtering

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-09-01

    a simple persistence model that forecasts the next 3-hr value as being equal to the current value shows a linear correlation coefficient of r = 0.797... correlation coefficient and the RMSE between the forecast value and the actual value. A new skill score that assesses how well the model predicts the

  15. Forecaster: Mass and radii of planets predictor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David

    2017-01-01

    Forecaster predicts the mass (or radius) from the radius (or mass) for objects covering nine orders-of-magnitude in mass. It is an unbiased forecasting model built upon a probabilistic mass-radius relation conditioned on a sample of 316 well-constrained objects. It accounts for observational errors, hyper-parameter uncertainties and the intrinsic dispersions observed in the calibration sample.

  16. Occupational Forecasting of Librarians in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stall, Roy

    This paper reviews the principal sources and methods used by the Manpower Research and Information Branches of the Department of Employment and Industrial Relations (DEIR) to forecast the over or undersupply of librarians in Australia. After differentiating between manpower policy, planning, and forecasting, the role of the commonwealth government…

  17. Forecast of geothermal-drilling activity

    SciTech Connect

    Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.

    1982-07-01

    The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are forecasted. Results of the forecast are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.

  18. School Science Inspired by Improving Weather Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reid, Heather; Renfrew, Ian A.; Vaughan, Geraint

    2014-01-01

    High winds and heavy rain are regular features of the British weather, and forecasting these events accurately is a major priority for the Met Office and other forecast providers. This is the challenge facing DIAMET, a project involving university groups from Manchester, Leeds, Reading, and East Anglia, together with the Met Office. DIAMET is part…

  19. Forecasting Workload for Defense Logistics Agency Distribution

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-12-01

    NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT FORECASTING WORKLOAD FOR DEFENSE LOGISTICS AGENCY...DATE December 2014 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED MBA Professional Report 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE FORECASTING WORKLOAD FOR DEFENSE LOGISTICS ...maximum 200 words) The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) predicts issue and receipt workload for its distribution agency in order to maintain

  20. Resources and Long-Range Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Waldo E.

    1973-01-01

    The author argues that forecasts of quick depletion of resources in the environment as a result of overpopulation and increased usage may not be free from error. Ignorance still exists in understanding the recovery mechanisms of nature. Long-range forecasts are likely to be wrong in such situations. (PS)