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Sample records for affective forecasting task

  1. Affective forecasting and the Big Five

    PubMed Central

    Hoerger, Michael; Quirk, Stuart W.

    2011-01-01

    Recent studies on affective forecasting clarify that the emotional reactions people anticipate often differ markedly from those they actually experience in response to affective stimuli and events. However, core personality differences in affective forecasting have received limited attention, despite their potential relevance to choice behavior. In the present study, 226 college undergraduates rated their anticipated and experienced reactions to the emotionally-evocative event of Valentine’s Day and completed a measure of the Big Five personality traits – neuroticism, extraversion, openness to experience, agreeableness, and conscientiousness – and their facet scales. Neuroticism and extraversion were associated with baseline mood, experienced emotional reactions, and anticipated emotional reactions. The present findings hold implications for the study of individual differences in affective forecasting, personality theory, and interventions research. PMID:22021944

  2. Cognitive determinants of affective forecasting errors

    PubMed Central

    Hoerger, Michael; Quirk, Stuart W.; Lucas, Richard E.; Carr, Thomas H.

    2011-01-01

    Often to the detriment of human decision making, people are prone to an impact bias when making affective forecasts, overestimating the emotional consequences of future events. The cognitive processes underlying the impact bias, and methods for correcting it, have been debated and warrant further exploration. In the present investigation, we examined both individual differences and contextual variables associated with cognitive processing in affective forecasting for an election. Results showed that the perceived importance of the event and working memory capacity were both associated with an increased impact bias for some participants, whereas retrieval interference had no relationship with bias. Additionally, an experimental manipulation effectively reduced biased forecasts, particularly among participants who were most distracted thinking about peripheral life events. These findings have direct theoretical implications for understanding the impact bias, highlight the importance of individual differences in affective forecasting, and have ramifications for future decision making research. The possible functional role of the impact bias is discussed within the context of evolutionary psychology. PMID:21912580

  3. Emotional Intelligence: A Theoretical Framework for Individual Differences in Affective Forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Hoerger, Michael; Chapman, Benjamin P.; Epstein, Ronald M.; Duberstein, Paul R.

    2011-01-01

    Only recently have researchers begun to examine individual differences in affective forecasting. The present investigation was designed to make a theoretical contribution to this emerging literature by examining the role of emotional intelligence in affective forecasting. Emotional intelligence was hypothesized to be associated with affective forecasting accuracy, memory for emotional reactions, and subsequent improvement on an affective forecasting task involving emotionally-evocative pictures. Results from two studies (N = 511) supported our hypotheses. Emotional intelligence was associated with accuracy in predicting, encoding, and consolidating emotional reactions. Furthermore, emotional intelligence was associated with greater improvement on a second affective forecasting task, with the relationship explained by basic memory processes. Implications for future research on basic and applied decision making are discussed. PMID:22251053

  4. Emotional task management: neural correlates of switching between affective and non-affective task-sets

    PubMed Central

    Reeck, Crystal

    2015-01-01

    Although task-switching has been investigated extensively, its interaction with emotionally salient task content remains unclear. Prioritized processing of affective stimulus content may enhance accessibility of affective task-sets and generate increased interference when switching between affective and non-affective task-sets. Previous research has demonstrated that more dominant task-sets experience greater switch costs, as they necessitate active inhibition during performance of less entrenched tasks. Extending this logic to the affective domain, the present experiment examined (a) whether affective task-sets are more dominant than non-affective ones, and (b) what neural mechanisms regulate affective task-sets, so that weaker, non-affective task-sets can be executed. While undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging, participants categorized face stimuli according to either their gender (non-affective task) or their emotional expression (affective task). Behavioral results were consistent with the affective task dominance hypothesis: participants were slower to switch to the affective task, and cross-task interference was strongest when participants tried to switch from the affective to the non-affective task. These behavioral costs of controlling the affective task-set were mirrored in the activation of a right-lateralized frontostriatal network previously implicated in task-set updating and response inhibition. Connectivity between amygdala and right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex was especially pronounced during cross-task interference from affective features. PMID:25552571

  5. Errors in Moral Forecasting: Perceptions of Affect Shape the Gap Between Moral Behaviors and Moral Forecasts.

    PubMed

    Teper, Rimma; Tullett, Alexa M; Page-Gould, Elizabeth; Inzlicht, Michael

    2015-07-01

    Research in moral decision making has shown that there may not be a one-to-one relationship between peoples' moral forecasts and behaviors. Although past work suggests that physiological arousal may account for part of the behavior-forecasting discrepancy, whether or not perceptions of affect play an important determinant remains unclear. Here, we investigate whether this discrepancy may arise because people fail to anticipate how they will feel in morally significant situations. In Study 1, forecasters predicted cheating significantly more on a test than participants in a behavior condition actually cheated. Importantly, forecasters who received false somatic feedback, indicative of high arousal, produced forecasts that aligned more closely with behaviors. In Study 2, forecasters who misattributed their arousal to an extraneous source forecasted cheating significantly more. In Study 3, higher dispositional emotional awareness was related to less forecasted cheating. These findings suggest that perceptions of affect play a key role in the behavior-forecasting dissociation. PMID:25900823

  6. More Intense Experiences, Less Intense Forecasts: Why People Overweight Probability Specifications in Affective Forecasts

    PubMed Central

    Buechel, Eva C.; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K.; Vosgerau, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6). PMID:24128184

  7. Does the processing fluency of a syllabus affect the forecasted grade and course difficulty?

    PubMed

    Guenther, R Kim

    2012-06-01

    Processing fluency is known to affect a variety of cognitive assessments, but most research has not examined such effects in the context of a real-life experience. In the first experiment, college students, enrolled in either a statistics or cognitive psychology course, read a course syllabus which varied in the clarity of its font and frequency of its vocabulary. Based on the syllabus, students then forecasted their final course grade and the course's difficulty. Despite methodological similarity to other fluency experiments and adequate statistical power, there were no significant differences in forecasts across fluency conditions. Fluency may be discounted in a task which provides information that affects people's lives. This interpretation was bolstered by a second experiment whose participants were students in a statistics course. These students read the cognitive course's syllabus and forecasted better grades and less difficulty in the cognitive course when the font of the syllabus was more clear than unclear. PMID:22897096

  8. The use of uncertainty forecasts in complex decision tasks and various weather conditions.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; Grounds, Margaret A

    2015-12-01

    Recent research on weather-related decision-making suggests that the inclusion of numeric uncertainty estimates in weather forecasts improves decision quality over single value forecasts or specific advice. However, it is unclear if the benefit of uncertainty estimates extends to more complex decision tasks, presumably requiring greater cognitive effort, or to tasks in which the decision is clear-cut, perhaps making the additional uncertainty information unnecessary. In the present research, participants completed a task in which they used single value weather forecasts, either alone, with freeze probabilities, advice, or both, to decide whether to apply salt to roads in winter to prevent icing or to withhold salt and risk a penalty. Participants completed either a simple binary choice version of the task or a complex version with 3 response options and accompanying rules for application. Some participants were shown forecasts near the freezing point, such that the need for salt was ambiguous, whereas other participants were shown forecasts well below the freezing point. Results suggest that participants with uncertainty estimates did better overall, and neither the task complexity nor the coldness of the forecasts reduced that advantage. However, unexpectedly colder forecasts lead to poorer decisions and an advantage for specific advice. PMID:26479974

  9. AFFECTS - Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothmer, Volker

    2013-04-01

    Through the AFFECTS project funded by the European Union's 7th Framework Programme, European and US scientists develop an advanced proto-type space weather warning system to safeguard the operation of telecommunication and navigation systems on Earth to the threat of solar storms. The project is led by the University of Göttingen's Institute for Astrophysics and comprises worldwide leading research and academic institutions and industrial enterprises from Germany, Belgium, Ukraine, Norway and the United States. The key objectives of the AFFECTS project are: State-of-the-art analysis and modelling of the Sun-Earth chain of effects on the Earth's ionosphere and their subsequent impacts on communication systems based on multipoint space observations and complementary ground-based data. Development of a prototype space weather early warning system and reliable space weather forecasts, with specific emphasis on ionospheric applications. Dissemination of new space weather products and services to end users, the scientific community and general public. The presentation summarizes the project highlights, with special emphasis on the developed space weather forecast tools.

  10. Positive Affect Increases Cognitive Control in the Antisaccade Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Van der Stigchel, Stefan; Imants, Puck; Ridderinkhof, K. Richard

    2011-01-01

    To delineate the modulatory effects of induced positive affect on cognitive control, the current study investigated whether positive affect increases the ability to suppress a reflexive saccade in the antisaccade task. Results of the antisaccade task showed that participants made fewer erroneous prosaccades in the condition in which a positive…

  11. Comparison versus Contrast: Task Specifics Affect Category Acquisition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ankowski, Amber A.; Vlach, Haley A.; Sandhofer, Catherine M.

    2013-01-01

    A large literature has documented that comparison and contrast lead to better performance in a variety of tasks. However, studies of comparison and contrast present contradictory conclusions as to when and how these processes benefit learners. Across four studies, we examined how the specifics of the comparison and contrast task affect performance…

  12. Socially triggered negative affect impairs performance in simple cognitive tasks.

    PubMed

    Böttcher, Svenja; Dreisbach, Gesine

    2014-03-01

    The aim of this research was to investigate the influence of a social-evaluative context on simple cognitive tasks. While another person present in the room evaluated photographs of beautiful women or landscapes by beauty/attractiveness, female participants had to perform a combination of digit-categorization and spatial-compatibility task. There, before every trial, one of the women or landscape pictures was presented. Results showed selective performance impairments: the numerical distance effects increased on trials that followed women pictures but only, if another person concurrently evaluated these women pictures. In a second experiment, using the affective priming paradigm, the authors show that female pictures have a more negative connotation when they are concurrently evaluated by another person (social-evaluative context) than when they are not evaluated (neutral context). Together, these results suggest that the social-evaluative context triggers mild negative affective reactions to women pictures which then impair performance in an unrelated task. PMID:23423348

  13. Assessing Affect after Mathematical Problem Solving Tasks: Validating the Chamberlin Affective Instrument for Mathematical Problem Solving

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chamberlin, Scott A.; Powers, Robert A.

    2013-01-01

    The focus of the article is the validation of an instrument to assess gifted students' affect after mathematical problem solving tasks. Participants were 225 students identified by their district as gifted in grades four to six. The Chamberlin Affective Instrument for Mathematical Problem Solving was used to assess feelings, emotions, and…

  14. State-of-the-art Space Weather Forecast with AFFECTS and HELCATS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothmer, Volker; Affects Team; Helcats Team

    2016-04-01

    The space weather projects fostered through the European Union FP7 and Horizon 2020 programs have opened up new horizons in the field of space weather research and have facilitated state-of-the-art-forecasts. Here we present an overview on the services and space weather forecasts the EU FP7 project AFFECTS (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space) is providing and how the precision of the forecast is qualitatively greatly enhanced by new results derived from the EU FP7 project HELCATS (Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis, and Techniques Services). The forecast techniques base on near-real time multipoint analysis of coronal mass ejections observed by SOHO and STEREO and simulations of their Sun to Earth evolution.

  15. Age differences in affective forecasting and experienced emotion surrounding the 2008 U.S. presidential election

    PubMed Central

    Scheibe, Susanne; Mata, Rui; Carstensen, Laura L.

    2012-01-01

    In everyday life, people frequently make decisions based on tacit or explicit forecasts about the emotional consequences associated with the possible choices. We investigated age differences in such forecasts and their accuracy by surveying voters about their expected and, subsequently, their actual emotional responses to the 2008 U.S. presidential election. A sample of 762 Democratic and Republican voters aged 20 to 80 years participated in a web-based study; 346 could be re-contacted two days after the election. Older adults forecasted lower increases in high-arousal emotions (e.g., excitement after winning; anger after losing) and larger increases in low-arousal emotions (e.g., sluggishness after losing) than younger adults. Age differences in actual responses to the election were consistent with forecasts, albeit less pervasive. Additionally, among supporters of the winning candidate, but not among supporters of the losing candidate, forecasting accuracy was enhanced with age, suggesting a positivity effect in affective forecasting. These results add to emerging findings about the role of valence and arousal in emotional aging and demonstrate age differences in affective forecasting about a real-world event with an emotionally-charged outcome. PMID:21547760

  16. My Imagination versus Your Feelings: Can Personal Affective Forecasts Be Improved by Knowing Other Peoples' Emotions?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walsh, Emma; Ayton, Peter

    2009-01-01

    A proposed remedy for biased affective forecasts is to base judgments on the actual feelings of people (surrogates) currently experiencing the event, rather than using imagination which conjures an inaccurate vision of the future. Gilbert et al. (2009) forced people to use surrogate reports by withholding all event information, resulting in better…

  17. Affective Forecasting: Teaching a Useful, Accessible, and Humbling Area of Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kurtz, Jaime L.

    2016-01-01

    All students, from college freshmen to advanced graduate students, have asked themselves, "Will this decision make me happy?" The vast majority of them have been wrong. Affective forecasting, the process of predicting future feelings, is a topic of great interest to students due to its applicable and highly relatable nature. This article…

  18. When idols look into the future: fair treatment modulates the affective forecasting error in talent show candidates.

    PubMed

    Feys, Marjolein; Anseel, Frederik

    2015-03-01

    People's affective forecasts are often inaccurate because they tend to overestimate how they will feel after an event. As life decisions are often based on affective forecasts, it is crucial to find ways to manage forecasting errors. We examined the impact of a fair treatment on forecasting errors in candidates in a Belgian reality TV talent show. We found that perceptions of fair treatment increased the forecasting error for losers (a negative audition decision) but decreased it for winners (a positive audition decision). For winners, this effect was even more pronounced when candidates were highly invested in their self-view as a future pop idol whereas for losers, the effect was more pronounced when importance was low. The results in this study point to a potential paradox between maximizing happiness and decreasing forecasting errors. A fair treatment increased the forecasting error for losers, but actually made them happier. PMID:24548171

  19. Extrinsic value orientation and affective forecasting: overestimating the rewards, underestimating the costs.

    PubMed

    Sheldon, Kennon M; Gunz, Alexander; Nichols, Charles P; Ferguson, Yuna

    2010-02-01

    We examined affective forecasting errors as a possible explanation of the perennial appeal of extrinsic values and goals. Study 1 found that although people relatively higher in extrinsic (money, fame, image) compared to intrinsic (growth, intimacy, community) value orientation (REVO) are less happy, they nevertheless believe that attaining extrinsic goals offers a strong potential route to happiness. Study 2's longitudinal experimental design randomly assigned participants to pursue either 3 extrinsic or 3 intrinsic goals over 4 weeks, and REVO again predicted stronger forecasts regarding extrinsic goals. However, not even extrinsically oriented participants gained well-being benefits from attaining extrinsic goals, whereas all participants tended to gain in happiness from attaining intrinsic goals. Study 3 showed that the effect of REVO on forecasts is mediated by extrinsic individuals' belief that extrinsic goals will satisfy autonomy and competence needs. It appears that some people overestimate the emotional benefits of achieving extrinsic goals, to their potential detriment. PMID:20433616

  20. EVENT PREDICTION AND AFFECTIVE FORECASTING IN DEPRESSIVE COGNITION: USING EMOTION AS INFORMATION ABOUT THE FUTURE

    PubMed Central

    MARROQUÍN, BRETT; NOLEN-HOEKSEMA, SUSAN

    2015-01-01

    Depression is characterized by a bleak view of the future, but the mechanisms through which depressed mood is integrated into basic processes of future-oriented cognition are unclear. We hypothesized that dysphoric individuals’ predictions of what will happen in the future (likelihood estimation) and how the future will feel (affective forecasting) are attributable to individual differences in incorporating present emotion as judgment-relevant information. Dysphoric individuals (n = 77) made pessimistic likelihood estimates and blunted positive affective forecasts relative to controls (n = 84). These differences were mediated by dysphoric individuals’ tendencies to rely on negative emotion as information more than controls—and on positive emotion less—independent of anhedonia. These findings suggest that (1) blunted positive affective forecasting is a distinctive component of depressive future-oriented cognition, and (2) future-oriented cognitive processes are linked not just to current emotional state, but also to individual variation in using that emotion as information. This role of individual differences elucidates basic mechanisms in future-oriented cognition, and suggests routes for intervention on interrelated cognitive and affective processes in depression. PMID:26146452

  1. Does a Speaking Task Affect Second Language Comprehensibility?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crowther, Dustin; Trofimovich, Pavel; Isaacs, Talia; Saito, Kazuya

    2015-01-01

    The current study investigated task effects on listener perception of second language (L2) comprehensibility (ease of understanding). Sixty university-level adult speakers of English from 4 first language (L1) backgrounds (Chinese, Romance, Hindi, Farsi), with 15 speakers per group, were recorded performing 2 tasks (IELTS long-turn speaking task…

  2. Luminance controlled pupil size affects Landolt C task performance. Revision

    SciTech Connect

    Berman, S.M.; Fein, G.; Jewett, D.L.; Ashford, F.

    1993-02-01

    Subjects judged the orientation of a 2 min. gap Landolt C located at a distance of 2.4 m. The stimuli were presented in central vision on a CRT, at low to medium contrast. The effects of varying the spectrum and luminance of surround lighting were assessed on both pupil size (measured using infrared pupillometry during task performance) and task accuracy. The task display was protected from the surround lighting, so that its luminance and contrast could be varied independently of the changes in the surround lighting. Indirect surround illumination was provided by either two illuminants of very different scotopic spectral content but with the same photopic luminance (Experiments 1 and 3), or by using the same illuminant at two different luminance levels (Experiment 2). In Experiment 3, the effect of changing surround spectrum was compared to the effect of varying task background luminance between 12 cd/m{sup 2} and 73 cd/m{sup 2}. In all experiments, scotopically enhanced surround lighting produced pupil areas which were reduced by almost 50% in comparison with surround lighting with relatively less scotopic luminance. Concomitantly there was improvement in Landolt C task performance with the scotopically enhanced surround lighting at all contrast and luminance levels. In these experiments, smaller pupil sizes were associated with significantly better visual-task performance in spite of lower task retinal illuminance when compared to the condition with larger pupils. These results suggest that changes in surround spectrum can compensate for the effect on task performance of a reduction in task luminance and supports the hypothesis that lighting energy savings could accrue in the workplace by shifting lamp spectra to obtain greater scotopic efficacy.

  3. Luminance controlled pupil size affects Landolt C task performance

    SciTech Connect

    Berman, S.M. ); Fein, G. ); Jewett, D.L.; Ashford, F. )

    1993-02-01

    Subjects judged the orientation of a 2 min. gap Landolt C located at a distance of 2.4 m. The stimuli were presented in central vision on a CRT, at low to medium contrast. The effects of varying the spectrum and luminance of surround lighting were assessed on both pupil size (measured using infrared pupillometry during task performance) and task accuracy. The task display was protected from the surround lighting, so that its luminance and contrast could be varied independently of the changes in the surround lighting. Indirect surround illumination was provided by either two illuminants of very different scotopic spectral content but with the same photopic luminance (Experiments 1 and 3), or by using the same illuminant at two different luminance levels (Experiment 2). In Experiment 3, the effect of changing surround spectrum was compared to the effect of varying task background luminance between 12 cd/m[sup 2] and 73 cd/m[sup 2]. In all experiments, scotopically enhanced surround lighting produced pupil areas which were reduced by almost 50% in comparison with surround lighting with relatively less scotopic luminance. Concomitantly there was improvement in Landolt C task performance with the scotopically enhanced surround lighting at all contrast and luminance levels. In these experiments, smaller pupil sizes were associated with significantly better visual-task performance in spite of lower task retinal illuminance when compared to the condition with larger pupils. These results suggest that changes in surround spectrum can compensate for the effect on task performance of a reduction in task luminance and supports the hypothesis that lighting energy savings could accrue in the workplace by shifting lamp spectra to obtain greater scotopic efficacy.

  4. Prior task experience affects temporal prediction and estimation

    PubMed Central

    Tobin, Simon; Grondin, Simon

    2015-01-01

    It has been shown that prior experience with a task improves temporal prediction, even when the amount of prior experience with the task is often limited. The present study targeted the role of extensive training on temporal prediction. Expert and intermediate runners had to predict the time of a 5 km running competition. Furthermore, after the race’s completion, participants had to estimate their running time so that it could be compared with the predicted time. Results show that expert runners were more accurate than intermediate runners for both predicting and estimating their running time. Furthermore, only expert runners had an estimation that was more accurate than their initial prediction. The results confirm the role of prior task experience in both temporal prediction and estimation. PMID:26217261

  5. Viewer Perspective Affects Central Bottleneck Requirements in Spatial Translation Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Franz, Elizabeth A.; Sebastian, Alexandra; Hust, Christina; Norris, Tom

    2008-01-01

    A psychological refractory period (PRP) approach and the locus of slack logic were applied to examine the novel question of whether spatial translation processes can begin before the central bottleneck when effector or noneffector stimuli are processed from an egocentric (viewer-centered) perspective. In single tasks, trials requiring spatial…

  6. Coping strategies and immune neglect in affective forecasting: Direct evidence and key moderators

    PubMed Central

    Hoerger, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Affective forecasting skills have important implications for decision making. However, recent research suggests that immune neglect – the tendency to overlook coping strategies that reduce future distress – may lead to affective forecasting problems. Prior evidence for immune neglect has been indirect. More direct evidence and a deeper understanding of immune neglect are vital to informing the design of future decision-support interventions. In the current study, young adults (N = 325) supplied predicted, actual, and recollected reactions to an emotionally-evocative interpersonal event, Valentine’s Day. Based on participants’ qualitative descriptions of the holiday, a team of raters reliably coded the effectiveness of their coping strategies. Supporting the immune neglect hypothesis, participants overlooked the powerful role of coping strategies when predicting their emotional reactions. Immune neglect was present not only for those experiencing the holiday negatively (non-daters) but also for those experiencing it positively (daters), suggesting that the bias may be more robust than originally theorized. Immune neglect was greater for immediate emotional reactions than more enduring reactions. Further, immune neglect was conspicuously absent from recollected emotional reactions. Implications for decision-support interventions are discussed. PMID:22375161

  7. Seasonal climate forecasts significantly affected by observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice concentration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bunzel, Felix; Notz, Dirk; Baehr, Johanna; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Fröhlich, Kristina

    2016-01-01

    We investigate how observational uncertainty in satellite-retrieved sea ice concentrations affects seasonal climate predictions. To do so, we initialize hindcast simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model every 1 May and 1 November from 1981 to 2011 with two different sea ice concentration data sets, one based on the NASA Team and one on the Bootstrap algorithm. For hindcasts started in November, initial differences in Arctic sea ice area and surface temperature decrease rapidly throughout the freezing period. For hindcasts started in May, initial differences in sea ice area increase over time. By the end of the melting period, this causes significant differences in 2 meter air temperature of regionally more than 3°C. Hindcast skill for surface temperatures over Europe and North America is higher with Bootstrap initialization during summer and with NASA Team initialization during winter. This implies that the observational uncertainty also affects forecasts of teleconnections that depend on northern hemispheric climate indices.

  8. Embodied Information in Cognitive Tasks: Haptic Weight Sensations Affect Task Performance and Processing Style

    PubMed Central

    Kaspar, Kai; Vennekötter, Alina

    2015-01-01

    Research in the field of embodied cognition showed that incidental weight sensations influence peoples’ judgments about a variety of issues and objects. Most studies found that heaviness compared to lightness increases the perception of importance, seriousness, and potency. In two experiments, we broadened this scope by investigating the impact of weight sensations on cognitive performance. In Experiment 1, we found that the performance in an anagram task was reduced when participants held a heavy versus a light clipboard in their hands. Reduced performance was accompanied by an increase in the perceived effort. In Experiment 2, a heavy clipboard elicited a specific response heuristic in a two-alternative forced-choice task. Participants showed a significant right side bias when holding a heavy clipboard in their hands. After the task, participants in the heavy clipboard condition reported to be more frustrated than participants in the light clipboard condition. In both experiments, we did not find evidence for mediated effects that had been proposed by previous literature. Overall, the results indicate that weight effects go beyond judgment formation and highlight new avenues for future research. PMID:26421084

  9. Identification of Occupational Areas for Indiana's Future. Final Report of the Technology Forecasting Task Force.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Indiana State Commission on Vocational and Technical Education, Indianapolis.

    A task force representing the Indiana private sector was convened for two purposes: to (1) identify the impact of technology on required worker skills, the labor market, and the vocational education, training, and employment system; and (2) identify occupational areas that should be future growth areas for the state. Task force members reviewed…

  10. Interaction between Task Oriented and Affective Information Processing in Cognitive Robotics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haazebroek, Pascal; van Dantzig, Saskia; Hommel, Bernhard

    There is an increasing interest in endowing robots with emotions. Robot control however is still often very task oriented. We present a cognitive architecture that allows the combination of and interaction between task representations and affective information processing. Our model is validated by comparing simulation results with empirical data from experimental psychology.

  11. The influence of a working memory task on affective perception of facial expressions.

    PubMed

    Lim, Seung-Lark; Bruce, Amanda S; Aupperle, Robin L

    2014-01-01

    In a dual-task paradigm, participants performed a spatial location working memory task and a forced two-choice perceptual decision task (neutral vs. fearful) with gradually morphed emotional faces (neutral ∼ fearful). Task-irrelevant word distractors (negative, neutral, and control) were experimentally manipulated during spatial working memory encoding. We hypothesized that, if affective perception is influenced by concurrent cognitive load using a working memory task, task-irrelevant emotional distractors would bias subsequent perceptual decision-making on ambiguous facial expression. We found that when either neutral or negative emotional words were presented as task-irrelevant working-memory distractors, participants more frequently reported fearful face perception - but only at the higher emotional intensity levels of morphed faces. Also, the affective perception bias due to negative emotional distractors correlated with a decrease in working memory performance. Taken together, our findings suggest that concurrent working memory load by task-irrelevant distractors has an impact on affective perception of facial expressions. PMID:25347772

  12. Observational uncertainty of Arctic sea-ice concentration significantly affects seasonal climate forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bunzel, Felix; Notz, Dirk; Baehr, Johanna; Müller, Wolfgang; Fröhlich, Kristina

    2016-04-01

    We examine how the choice of a particular satellite-retrieved sea-ice concentration dataset used for initialising seasonal climate forecasts impacts the prediction skill of Arctic sea-ice area and Northern hemispheric 2-meter air temperatures. To do so, we performed two assimilation runs with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) from 1979 to 2012, where atmospheric and oceanic parameters as well as sea-ice concentration were assimilated using Newtonian relaxation. The two assimilation runs differ only in the sea-ice concentration dataset used for assimilating sea ice. In the first run, we use sea-ice concentrations as derived by the NASA-Team algorithm, while in the second run we use sea-ice concentrations as derived from the Bootstrap algorithm. A major difference between these two sea-ice concentration data products involves the treatment of melt ponds. While for both products melt ponds appear as open water in the raw satellite data, the Bootstrap algorithm more strongly attempts to offset this systematic bias by synthetically increasing the retrieved ice concentration during summer months. For each year of the two assimilation runs we performed a 10-member ensemble of hindcast experiments starting on 1 May and 1 November with a hindcast length of 6 months. For hindcasts started in November, initial differences in Arctic sea-ice area and surface temperature decrease rapidly throughout the freezing period. For hindcasts started in May, initial sea-ice area differences increase over time. By the end of the melting period, this causes significant differences in 2-meter air temperature of regionally more than 3°C. Hindcast skill for surface temperatures over Europe and North America is higher with Bootstrap initialization during summer and with NASA Team initialisation during winter. This implies that the choice of the sea-ice data product and, thus, the observational uncertainty also affects forecasts of teleconnections that depend on Northern

  13. To branch out or stay focused? Affective shifts differentially predict organizational citizenship behavior and task performance.

    PubMed

    Yang, Liu-Qin; Simon, Lauren S; Wang, Lei; Zheng, Xiaoming

    2016-06-01

    We draw from personality systems interaction (PSI) theory (Kuhl, 2000) and regulatory focus theory (Higgins, 1997) to examine how dynamic positive and negative affective processes interact to predict both task and contextual performance. Using a twice-daily diary design over the course of a 3-week period, results from multilevel regression analysis revealed that distinct patterns of change in positive and negative affect optimally predicted contextual and task performance among a sample of 71 employees at a medium-sized technology company. Specifically, within persons, increases (upshifts) in positive affect over the course of a workday better predicted the subsequent day's organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) when such increases were coupled with decreases (downshifts) in negative affect. The optimal pattern of change in positive and negative affect differed, however, in predicting task performance. That is, upshifts in positive affect over the course of the workday better predicted the subsequent day's task performance when such upshifts were accompanied by upshifts in negative affect. The contribution of our findings to PSI theory and the broader affective and motivation regulation literatures, along with practical implications, are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26882443

  14. Examining the association between rumination, negative affectivity, and negative affect induced by a paced auditory serial addition task.

    PubMed

    Feldner, Matthew T; Leen-Feldner, Ellen W; Zvolensky, Michael J; Lejuez, C W

    2006-09-01

    The present study examined the relations among a depressive ruminative response style, a general propensity to experience negative affectivity, and negative affect induced by a paced serial auditory addition task (PASAT). Ninety nonclinical individuals completed a computerized version of the PASAT, which elicits a generalized negative affect response [Lejuez, C. W., Kahler, C. W., & Brown, R. A. (2003). A modified computer version of the paced auditory serial addition task (PASAT) as a laboratory-based stressor: Implications for behavioral assessment. Behavior Therapist, 26, 290-292]. As hypothesized, there was a moderate correlation between depressive rumination and a propensity to experience negative affect, as indexed both by a significant association with a negative affect personality factor and the prediction of negative affect elicited during the provocation. Findings also suggested that dispositional negative affectivity moderated the effects of a depressive ruminative response style on the valence but not arousal dimensions of emotional responding to the challenge. These findings are discussed in terms of improving our understanding of rumination and its potential role in emotional vulnerability processes. PMID:16139240

  15. It’s a Wonderful Life: Mentally Subtracting Positive Events Improves People’s Affective States, Contrary to Their Affective Forecasts

    PubMed Central

    Koo, Minkyung; Algoe, Sara B.; Wilson, Timothy D.; Gilbert, Daniel T.

    2009-01-01

    The authors hypothesized that thinking about the absence of a positive event from one’s life would improve affective states more than thinking about the presence of a positive event but that people would not predict this when making affective forecasts. In Studies 1 and 2, college students wrote about the ways in which a positive event might never have happened and was surprising or how it became part of their life and was unsurprising. As predicted, people in the former condition reported more positive affective states. In Study 3, college student forecasters failed to anticipate this effect. In Study 4, Internet respondents and university staff members who wrote about how they might never have met their romantic partner were more satisfied with their relationship than were those who wrote about how they did meet their partner. The authors discuss the implications of these findings for the literatures on gratitude induction and counterfactual reasoning. PMID:18954203

  16. Food-cue affected motor response inhibition and self-reported dieting success: a pictorial affective shifting task

    PubMed Central

    Meule, Adrian; Lutz, Annika P. C.; Krawietz, Vera; Stützer, Judith; Vögele, Claus; Kübler, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Behavioral inhibition is one of the basic facets of executive functioning and is closely related to self-regulation. Impulsive reactions, that is, low inhibitory control, have been associated with higher body mass index (BMI), binge eating, and other problem behaviors (e.g., substance abuse, pathological gambling, etc.). Nevertheless, studies which investigated the direct influence of food-cues on behavioral inhibition have been fairly inconsistent. In the current studies, we investigated food-cue affected behavioral inhibition in young women. For this purpose, we used a go/no-go task with pictorial food and neutral stimuli in which stimulus-response mapping is reversed after every other block (affective shifting task). In study 1, hungry participants showed faster reaction times to and omitted fewer food than neutral targets. Low dieting success and higher BMI were associated with behavioral disinhibition in food relative to neutral blocks. In study 2, both hungry and satiated individuals were investigated. Satiation did not influence overall task performance, but modulated associations of task performance with dieting success and self-reported impulsivity. When satiated, increased food craving during the task was associated with low dieting success, possibly indicating a preload-disinhibition effect following food intake. Food-cues elicited automatic action and approach tendencies regardless of dieting success, self-reported impulsivity, or current hunger levels. Yet, associations between dieting success, impulsivity, and behavioral food-cue responses were modulated by hunger and satiation. Future research investigating clinical samples and including other salient non-food stimuli as control category is warranted. PMID:24659978

  17. Distractions, distractions: does instant messaging affect college students' performance on a concurrent reading comprehension task?

    PubMed

    Fox, Annie Beth; Rosen, Jonathan; Crawford, Mary

    2009-02-01

    Instant messaging (IM) has become one of the most popular forms of computer-mediated communication (CMC) and is especially prevalent on college campuses. Previous research suggests that IM users often multitask while conversing online. To date, no one has yet examined the cognitive effect of concurrent IM use. Participants in the present study (N = 69) completed a reading comprehension task uninterrupted or while concurrently holding an IM conversation. Participants who IMed while performing the reading task took significantly longer to complete the task, indicating that concurrent IM use negatively affects efficiency. Concurrent IM use did not affect reading comprehension scores. Additional analyses revealed that the more time participants reported spending on IM, the lower their reading comprehension scores. Finally, we found that the more time participants reported spending on IM, the lower their self-reported GPA. Implications and future directions are discussed. PMID:19006461

  18. Effects of age and task difficulty on recognition of facial affect.

    PubMed

    Orgeta, Vasiliki

    2010-05-01

    Current evidence suggests that older adults are less accurate than young adults in their ability to identify facial expressions of emotion. In the present study, young and older adults' ability to correctly recognize facial affect representative of 6 different emotions (happiness, surprise, disgust, fear, anger, and sadness) was examined in 3 conditions varying in difficulty. Task difficulty was measured by varying the number of labels available in a forced choice recognition task to 2, 4, and 6. Results showed that age differences were present in the 2 more difficult conditions for fear and sadness. Older adults were impaired in recognizing facial expressions of surprise only in the 4-label condition. Current findings suggest that task difficulty moderates age differences in emotion labeling. The present study has contributed to previous research by illuminating the conditions under which age differences in the accuracy of labeling of facial affect are more likely to be observed. PMID:20176659

  19. How Cross-Language Similarity and Task Demands Affect Cognate Recognition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dijkstra, Ton; Miwa, Koji; Brummelhuis, Bianca; Sappelli, Maya; Baayen, Harald

    2010-01-01

    This study examines how the cross-linguistic similarity of translation equivalents affects bilingual word recognition. Performing one of three tasks, Dutch-English bilinguals processed cognates with varying degrees of form overlap between their English and Dutch counterparts (e.g., "lamp-lamp" vs. "flood-vloed" vs. "song-lied"). In lexical…

  20. The Effect of School and Task Structure on Teacher Interaction, Classroom Organization and Student Affects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abramowitz, Susan

    This research paper sought to determine whether smaller sized schools decrease student alienation and increase program diversity both within the school and compared to others. Hypotheses tested were: (1) participation in small work units positively affects teacher task interdependence resulting in greater teacher interaction; (2) teacher…

  1. Affective ERP Processing in a Visual Oddball Task: Arousal, Valence, and Gender

    PubMed Central

    Rozenkrants, Bella; Polich, John

    2008-01-01

    Objective To assess affective event-related brain potentials (ERPs) using visual pictures that were highly distinct on arousal level/valence category ratings and a response task. Methods Images from the International Affective Pictures System (IAPS) were selected to obtain distinct affective arousal (low, high) and valence (negative, positive) rating levels. The pictures were used as target stimuli in an oddball paradigm, with a visual pattern as the standard stimulus. Participants were instructed to press a button whenever a picture occurred and to ignore the standard. Task performance and response time did not differ across conditions. Results High-arousal compared to low-arousal stimuli produced larger amplitudes for the N2, P3, early slow wave, and late slow wave components. Valence amplitude effects were weak overall and originated primarily from the later waveform components and interactions with electrode position. Gender differences were negligible. Conclusion The findings suggest that arousal level is the primary determinant of affective oddball processing, and valence minimally influences ERP amplitude. Significance Affective processing engages selective attentional mechanisms that are primarily sensitive to the arousal properties of emotional stimuli. The application and nature of task demands are important considerations for interpreting these effects. PMID:18783987

  2. The Functional Effect of Teacher Positive and Neutral Affect on Task Performance of Students with Significant Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Sungho; Singer, George H. S.; Gibson, Mary

    2005-01-01

    The study uses an alternating treatment design to evaluate the functional effect of teacher's affect on students' task performance. Tradition in special education holds that teachers should engage students using positive and enthusiastic affect for task presentations and praise. To test this assumption, we compared two affective conditions. Three…

  3. Changes in Interest and Affect during a Difficult Reading Task: Relationships with Perceived Difficulty and Reading Fluency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fulmer, Sara M.; Tulis, Maria

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated changes in middle school students' interest and affect during a moderately difficult reading task. The aim was to explore how changes in interest (topic and situational) and affect were related to students' reading fluency throughout the task and perceived difficulty. Interest and affect were recorded at four time points:…

  4. How Mood and Task Complexity Affect Children's Recognition of Others’ Emotions

    PubMed Central

    Cummings, Andrew J.; Rennels, Jennifer L.

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies examined how mood affects children's accuracy in matching emotional expressions and labels (label-based tasks). This study was the first to assess how induced mood (positive, neutral, or negative) influenced 5- to 8-year-olds’ accuracy and reaction time using both context-based tasks, which required inferring a character's emotion from a vignette, and label-based tasks. Both tasks required choosing one of four facial expressions to respond. Children responded more accurately to label-based questions relative to context-based questions at 5 to 7 years of age, but showed no differences at 8 years of age, and when the emotional expression being identified was happiness, sadness, or surprise, but not disgust. For the context-based questions, children were more accurate at inferring sad and disgusted emotions compared to happy and surprised emotions. Induced positive mood facilitated 5-year-olds’ processing (decreased reaction time) in both tasks compared to induced negative and neutral moods. Results demonstrate how task type and children's mood influence children's emotion processing at different ages. PMID:24489442

  5. Priming affects poor sleepers but not normal sleepers on an insomnia ambiguity task.

    PubMed

    Ellis, Jason; Gardani, Maria; Hogh, Henriette

    2010-03-01

    With increasing importance being placed on the role of cognitive biases as a maintaining factor in insomnia, the influence of order effects on interpretative responses should be examined and subsequently accounted for. The aim of the present study was to examine whether asking participants about their sleep experiences, prior to testing for a perceptual bias, affects responses on a sleep-related ambiguity task. One hundred and seventeen undergraduate students, blind to the aims of the experiment, were issued either the Dysfunctional Beliefs and Attitudes to Sleep scale (DBAS-10) and Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) before, or following, completion of an Insomnia Ambiguity Task (IAT). As expected, a multivariate analysis of variance showed that the order in which participants completed the task affected the responses on the IAT with those given the DBAS-10 and ISI first, showing greater insomnia-related interpretations than those given the IAT first. However, on closer examination, this effect was evident only for those who were defined as poor sleepers, and that normal sleepers were largely unaffected by the order in which the tests are given. The results are discussed in terms of design and management of sleep-related research protocols involving implicit cognitive tasks. PMID:19895424

  6. Nicotine withdrawal modulates frontal brain function during an affective Stroop task

    PubMed Central

    Modlin, Leslie; Wang, Lihong; Kozink, Rachel V.; McClernon, F. Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Background Among nicotine-dependent smokers, smoking abstinence disrupts multiple cognitive and affective processes including conflict resolution and emotional information processing (EIP). However, the neurobiological basis of abstinence effects on resolving emotional interference on cognition remains largely uncharacterized. In this study, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was used to investigate smoking abstinence effects on emotion–cognition interactions. Methods Smokers (n=17) underwent fMRI while performing an affective Stroop task (aST) over two sessions: once following 24-h abstinence and once following smoking as usual. The aST includes trials that serially present incongruent or congruent numerical grids bracketed by neutral or negative emotional distractors and view-only emotional image trials. Statistical analyses were conducted using a statistical threshold of p<0.05 cluster corrected. Results Smoking abstinence increased Stroop blood-oxygenation-level-dependent response in the right middle frontal and rostral anterior cingulate gyri. Moreover, withdrawal-induced negative affect was associated with less activation in frontoparietal regions during negative emotional information processing; whereas, during Stroop trials, negative affect predicted greater activation in frontal regions during negative, but not neutral emotional distractor trials. Conclusion Hyperactivation in the frontal executive control network during smoking abstinence may represent a need to recruit additional executive resources to meet task demands. Moreover, abstinence-induced negative affect may disrupt cognitive control neural circuitry during EIP and place additional demands on frontal executive neural resources during cognitive demands when presented with emotionally distracting stimuli. PMID:21989805

  7. Estimating How Inflated or Obscured Effects of Climate Affect Forecasted Species Distribution

    PubMed Central

    Real, Raimundo; Romero, David; Olivero, Jesús; Estrada, Alba; Márquez, Ana L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (ρ), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario. PMID:23349726

  8. Factors affecting numerical typing performance of young adults in a hear-and-type task.

    PubMed

    Lin, Cheng-Jhe; Wu, Changxu

    2011-12-01

    Numerical hear-and-type tasks, i.e. making immediate keypresses according to verbally presented numbers, possess both practical and theoretical importance but received relatively little attention. Effects of speech rates (500-ms vs. 1000-ms interval), urgency (urgent condition: performance-based monetary incentive plus time limit vs. non-urgent condition: flat-rate compensation) and finger strategies (single vs. multi-finger typing) on typing speed and accuracy were investigated. Fast speech rate and multi-finger typing produced more errors and slower typing speed. Urgency improved typing speed but decreased accuracy. Errors were almost doubled under urgent condition, while urgency effect on speed was similar to that of speech rate. Examination of error patterns did not fully support Salthouse's (1986) speculations about error-making mechanisms. The results implied that urgency could play a more important role in error-making than task demands. Numerical keyboard design and error detection could benefit from spatial incidence of errors found in this study. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: This study revealed that classic speculations about error-making mechanisms in alphabetical typing do not necessarily translate to numerical typing. Factors other than external task demands such as urgency can affect typing performance to a similar or greater extent. Investigations of intrinsic error-making factors in non-traditional typing tasks are encouraged. PMID:22103724

  9. Amygdala responses to unpleasant pictures are influenced by task demands and positive affect trait

    PubMed Central

    Sanchez, Tiago A.; Mocaiber, Izabela; Erthal, Fatima S.; Joffily, Mateus; Volchan, Eliane; Pereira, Mirtes G.; de Araujo, Draulio B.; Oliveira, Leticia

    2015-01-01

    The role of attention in emotional processing is still the subject of debate. Recent studies have found that high positive affect in approach motivation narrows attention. Furthermore, the positive affect trait has been suggested as an important component for determining human variability in threat reactivity. We employed functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate whether different states of attention control would modulate amygdala responses to highly unpleasant pictures relative to neutral and whether this modulation would be influenced by the positive affect trait. Participants (n = 22, 12 male) were scanned while viewing neutral (people) or unpleasant pictures (mutilated bodies) flanked by two peripheral bars. They were instructed to (a) judge the picture content as unpleasant or neutral or (b) to judge the difference in orientation between the bars in an easy condition (0 or 90∘ orientation difference) or (c) in a hard condition (0 or 6∘ orientation difference). Whole brain analysis revealed a task main effect of brain areas related to the experimental manipulation of attentional control, including the amygdala, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and posterior parietal cortex. Region of interest analysis showed an inverse correlation (r = -0.51, p < 0.01) between left amygdala activation and positive affect level when participants viewed unpleasant stimuli and judged bar orientation in the easy condition. This result suggests that subjects with high positive affect exhibit lower amygdala reactivity to distracting unpleasant pictures. In conclusion, the current study suggests that positive affect modulates attention effect on unpleasant pictures, therefore attenuating emotional responses. PMID:25788883

  10. Differential Effects of Single-Dose Escitalopram on Cognitive and Affective Interference during Stroop Task

    PubMed Central

    Rahm, Christoffer; Liberg, Benny; Kristoffersen-Wiberg, Maria; Aspelin, Peter; Msghina, Mussie

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective: Our aim was to study the regulatory role of serotonin [(5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT)] on two key nodes in the cognitive control networks – the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). We hypothesized that increasing the levels of 5-HT would preferentially modulate the activity in ACC during cognitive control during interference by negative affects compared to cognitive control during interference by a superimposed cognitive task. Methods: We performed a functional magnetic resonance imaging investigation on 11 healthy individuals, comparing the effects of the selective 5-HT reuptake inhibitor escitalopram on brain oxygenation level dependent signals in the ACC and the DLPFC using affective and cognitive counting Stroop paradigms (aStroop and cStroop). Results: Escitalopram significantly decreased the activity in rostral ACC during aStroop compared to cStroop (p < 0.05). In the absence of escitalopram, both aStroop and cStroop significantly activated ACC and DLPFC (Z ≥ 2.3, p < 0.05). Conclusion: We conclude that escitalopram in a region and task specific manner modified the cognitive control networks and preferentially decreased activity induced by affective interference in the ACC. PMID:24616708

  11. Affective forecasting about hedonic loss and adaptation: Implications for damage awards.

    PubMed

    Greene, Edie; Sturm, Kristin A; Evelo, Andrew J

    2016-06-01

    In tort lawsuits, plaintiffs may seek damages for loss of enjoyment of life, so-called hedonic loss, which occurred as a result of an accident or injury. In 2 studies, we examined how people judge others' adaptation and hedonic loss after an injury. Laypeople's forecasts of hedonic loss are relevant to concerns about whether jurors appropriately compensate plaintiffs. Longitudinal data of subjective well-being (e.g., Binder & Coad, 2013) show that hedonic loss is domain-specific: Many physical impairments (e.g., strokes) inflict less hedonic loss than many persistent yet invisible ailments (e.g., mental illness and conditions that cause chronic pain). We used vignette methodology to determine whether laypeople (n = 68 community members and 65 students in Study 1; 87 community members and 93 students in Study 2) and rehabilitation professionals (n = 47 in Study 2) were aware of this fact. In Study 1, participants' ratings of hedonic loss subsequent to a physical injury and a comparably severe psychological impairment did not differ. In Study 2, ratings of short- and long-term hedonic loss stemming from paraplegia and chronic back pain showed that neither laypeople nor professionals understood that hedonic loss is domain-specific. These findings imply that observers may forecast a future for people who suffered serious physical injuries as grimmer than it is likely to be, and a future for people who experience chronic pain and psychological disorders as rosier than is likely. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26914859

  12. Affectively salient meaning in random noise: a task sensitive to psychosis liability.

    PubMed

    Galdos, Mariana; Simons, Claudia; Fernandez-Rivas, Aranzazu; Wichers, Marieke; Peralta, Concepción; Lataster, Tineke; Amer, Guillermo; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Allardyce, Judith; Gonzalez-Torres, Miguel Angel; van Os, Jim

    2011-11-01

    Stable differences in the tendency to attribute meaning and emotional value to experience may represent an indicator of liability to psychosis. A brief task was developed assessing variation in detecting affectively meaningful speech (speech illusion) in neutral random signals (white noise) and the degree to which this was associated with psychometric and familial vulnerability for psychosis. Thirty patients, 28 of their siblings, and 307 controls participated. The rate of speech illusion was compared between cases and controls. In controls, the association between speech illusion and interview-based positive schizotypy was assessed. The hypothesis of a dose-response increase in rate of speech illusion across increasing levels of familial vulnerability for psychosis (controls, siblings of patients, and patients) was examined. Patients were more likely to display speech illusions than controls (odds ratio [OR] = 4.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4-11.7), also after controlling for neurocognitive variables (OR = 3.8, 95% CI = 1.04-14.1). The case-control difference was more accentuated for speech illusion perceived as affectively salient (positively or negatively appraised) than for neutrally appraised speech illusions. Speech illusion in the controls was strongly associated with positive schizotypy but not with negative schizotypy. In addition, the rate of speech illusion increased with increasing level of familial risk for psychotic disorder. The data suggest that the white noise task may be sensitive to psychometric and familial vulnerability for psychosis associated with alterations in top-down processing and/or salience attribution. PMID:20360211

  13. Spatiotemporal object history affects the selection of task-relevant properties.

    PubMed

    Schreij, Daniel; Olivers, Christian N L

    2013-02-01

    For stable perception, we maintain mental representations of objects across space and time. What information is linked to such a representation? In this study, we extended our work showing that the spatiotemporal history of an object affects the way the object is attended the next time it is encountered. Observers conducted a visual search for a target among multiple distractors. Either the target location (Experiment 1) or the target feature (Experiment 2) could repeat from trial to trial. The entire visual search display was part of an object that could move in and out of view. Search was speeded when the target property repeated, but especially when the motion trajectory suggested that the same object had emerged. We show that this same-object benefit is tied to both the features and the spatial location of the target. It is most prominent for task-relevant features, but is weak to absent for task-irrelevant target features or for distractors carrying a salient feature. We conclude that attention uses an object-specific memory for relevant target information. Finally, we show that this object-specific memory is not affected by a change in the exterior appearance of the object, but depends on the spatiotemporal history (Experiment 3). PMID:22390295

  14. Improved Anvil Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.

    2000-01-01

    This report describes the outcome of Phase 1 of the AMU's Improved Anvil Forecasting task. Forecasters in the 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group have found that anvil forecasting is a difficult task when predicting LCC and FR violations. The purpose of this task is to determine the technical feasibility of creating an anvil-forecasting tool. Work on this study was separated into three steps: literature search, forecaster discussions, and determination of technical feasibility. The literature search revealed no existing anvil-forecasting techniques. However, there appears to be growing interest in anvils in recent years. If this interest continues to grow, more information will be available to aid in developing a reliable anvil-forecasting tool. The forecaster discussion step revealed an array of methods on how better forecasting techniques could be developed. The forecasters have ideas based on sound meteorological principles and personal experience in forecasting and analyzing anvils. Based on the information gathered in the discussions with the forecasters, the conclusion of this report is that it is technically feasible at this time to develop an anvil forecasting technique that will significantly contribute to the confidence in anvil forecasts.

  15. Affective and Deliberative Processes in Risky Choice: Age Differences in Risk Taking in the Columbia Card Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Figner, Bernd; Mackinlay, Rachael J.; Wilkening, Friedrich; Weber, Elke U.

    2009-01-01

    The authors investigated risk taking and underlying information use in 13- to 16- and 17- to 19-year-old adolescents and in adults in 4 experiments, using a novel dynamic risk-taking task, the Columbia Card Task (CCT). The authors investigated risk taking under differential involvement of affective versus deliberative processes with 2 versions of…

  16. How gender and task difficulty affect a sport-protective response in young adults

    PubMed Central

    Lipps, David B.; Eckner, James T.; Richardson, James K.; Ashton-Miller, James A.

    2013-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that gender and task difficulty affect the reaction, movement, and total response times associated with performing a head protective response. Twenty-four healthy young adults (13 females) performed a protective response of raising their hands from waist level to block a foam ball fired at their head from an air cannon. Participants initially stood 8.25 m away from the cannon (‘low difficulty’), and were moved successively closer in 60 cm increments until they failed to block at least 5 of 8 balls (‘high difficulty’). Limb motion was quantified using optoelectronic markers on the participants’ left wrist. Males had significantly faster total response times (p = 0.042), a trend towards faster movement times (p = 0.054), and faster peak wrist velocity (p < .001) and acceleration (p = 0.032) than females. Reaction time, movement time, and total response time were significantly faster under high difficulty conditions for both genders (p < .001). This study suggests that baseball and softball pitchers and fielders should have sufficient time to protect their head from a batted ball under optimal conditions if they are adequately prepared for the task. PMID:23234296

  17. How gender and task difficulty affect a sport-protective response in young adults.

    PubMed

    Lipps, David B; Eckner, James T; Richardson, James K; Ashton-Miller, James A

    2013-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that gender and task difficulty affect the reaction, movement, and total response times associated with performing a head protective response. Twenty-four healthy young adults (13 females) performed a protective response by raising their hands from waist level to block a foam ball fired at their head from an air cannon. Participants initially stood 8.25 m away from the cannon ('low difficulty'), and were moved successively closer in 60 cm increments until they failed to block at least five of eight balls ('high difficulty'). Limb motion was quantified using optoelectronic markers on the participants' left wrist. Males had significantly faster total response times (P = 0.042), a trend towards faster movement times (P = 0.054), and faster peak wrist velocity (P < 0.001) and acceleration (P = 0.032) than females. Reaction time, movement time, and total response time were significantly faster under high difficulty conditions for both genders (P < 0.001). This study suggests that baseball and softball pitchers and fielders should have sufficient time to protect their head from a batted ball under optimal conditions if they are adequately prepared for the task. PMID:23234296

  18. Hemodynamic and affective correlates assessed during performance on the Columbia card task (CCT).

    PubMed

    Holper, Lisa; Murphy, Ryan O

    2014-12-01

    The study aimed to test the potential of functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) in combination with electrodermal activity (EDA) in a decision paradigm by means of the Columbia card task (CCT). The CCT is a dynamic decision task characterized by assessing subjects' risk-taking via eliciting voluntary stopping points in a series of incrementally increasingly risky choices. Using the combined fNIRS-EDA approach, we aim to examine the hemodynamic and affective correlates of both decision and outcome responses during performance on the CCT. Twenty healthy subjects completed the Cold and Hot CCT version while fNIRS over prefrontal cortex and EDA were recorded. Results showed that (1) in the decision phase fNIRS revealed larger total hemoglobin concentration changes [tHb] in the Cold as compared to the Hot CCT, whereas EDA revealed an opposite pattern with larger skin conductance responses (SCRs) to the Hot as compared to the Cold CCT. (2) No significant [tHb] signals or SCRs were found in the outcome phase. (3) Coherence calculations between fNIRS and EDA in the heart rate frequency showed a significant increase during the Hot as compared to the Cold CCT. Our findings designate fNIRS as suitable tool for monitoring decision-making processes. The combination of fNIRS and EDA demonstrates the potential of simultaneously assessing the interaction between hemodynamic and affective responses which can provide additional information concerning the relationship between these two physiological systems for various research areas. PMID:24242358

  19. Affectively Salient Meaning in Random Noise: A Task Sensitive to Psychosis Liability

    PubMed Central

    Galdos, Mariana; Simons, Claudia; Fernandez-Rivas, Aranzazu; Wichers, Marieke; Peralta, Concepción; Lataster, Tineke; Amer, Guillermo; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Allardyce, Judith; Gonzalez-Torres, Miguel Angel; van Os, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Stable differences in the tendency to attribute meaning and emotional value to experience may represent an indicator of liability to psychosis. A brief task was developed assessing variation in detecting affectively meaningful speech (speech illusion) in neutral random signals (white noise) and the degree to which this was associated with psychometric and familial vulnerability for psychosis. Thirty patients, 28 of their siblings, and 307 controls participated. The rate of speech illusion was compared between cases and controls. In controls, the association between speech illusion and interview-based positive schizotypy was assessed. The hypothesis of a dose-response increase in rate of speech illusion across increasing levels of familial vulnerability for psychosis (controls, siblings of patients, and patients) was examined. Patients were more likely to display speech illusions than controls (odds ratio [OR] = 4.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4–11.7), also after controlling for neurocognitive variables (OR = 3.8, 95% CI = 1.04–14.1). The case-control difference was more accentuated for speech illusion perceived as affectively salient (positively or negatively appraised) than for neutrally appraised speech illusions. Speech illusion in the controls was strongly associated with positive schizotypy but not with negative schizotypy. In addition, the rate of speech illusion increased with increasing level of familial risk for psychotic disorder. The data suggest that the white noise task may be sensitive to psychometric and familial vulnerability for psychosis associated with alterations in top-down processing and/or salience attribution. PMID:20360211

  20. Timing Is Affected by Demands in Memory Search but Not by Task Switching

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fortin, Claudette; Schweickert, Richard; Gaudreault, Remi; Viau-Quesnel, Charles

    2010-01-01

    Recent studies suggest that timing and tasks involving executive control processes might require the same attentional resources. This should lead to interference when timing and executive tasks are executed concurrently. This study examined the interference between timing and task switching, an executive function. In 4 experiments, memory search…

  1. Testing the embodied account of object naming: a concurrent motor task affects naming artifacts and animals.

    PubMed

    Matheson, Heath E; White, Nicole; McMullen, Patricia A

    2014-01-01

    Embodied theories of object representation propose that the same neural networks are involved in encoding and retrieving object knowledge. In the present study, we investigated whether motor programs play a causal role in the retrieval of object names. Participants performed an object-naming task while squeezing a sponge with either their right or left hand. The objects were artifacts (e.g. hammer) or animals (e.g. giraffe) and were presented in an orientation that favored a grasp or not. We hypothesized that, if activation of motor programs is necessary to retrieve object knowledge, then concurrent motor activity would interfere with naming manipulable artifacts but not non-manipulable animals. In Experiment 1, we observed naming interference for all objects oriented towards the occupied hand. In Experiment 2, we presented the objects in more 'canonical orientations'. Participants named all objects more quickly when they were oriented towards the occupied hand. Together, these interference/facilitation effects suggest that concurrent motor activity affects naming for both categories. These results also suggest that picture-plane orientation interacts with an attentional bias that is elicited by the objects and their relationship to the occupied hand. These results may be more parsimoniously accounted for by a domain-general attentional effect, constraining the embodied theory of object representations. We suggest that researchers should scrutinize attentional accounts of other embodied cognitive effects. PMID:24291119

  2. Amphetamine affects the start of responding in the peak interval timing task.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Kathleen M; Horvitz, Jon C; Balsam, Peter D

    2007-02-22

    In this paper we investigate how amphetamine affects performance in a PI task by comparing two analyses of responding during peak trials. After training on 24 s fixed interval (FI-24) with 96 s peak trials, rats were given amphetamine for 4 consecutive days at doses of .5 and 1.0 mg/kg. Responses during peak trials were fitted with a Gaussian distribution to estimate the expected time of reinforcement from the peak time. A single trials analysis was also performed to determine the start time and stop time of the transition into and out of a high rate of responding on each peak trial. Amphetamine significantly decreased peak times as measured with the Gaussian curve fitting. However, in the single trials analysis, animals initiated responding significantly earlier, but did not stop responding earlier. Thus, fitting a Gaussian to the average performance across trials sometimes provides a different characterization of the timing process than does analyzing the start and stop of responding on individual trials. In the current experiment, the latter approach provided a more precise characterization of the effects of amphetamine on response timing. PMID:17222991

  3. How task complexity and stimulus modality affect motor execution: target accuracy, response timing and hesitations.

    PubMed

    Parrington, Lucy; MacMahon, Clare; Ball, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    Elite sports players are characterized by the ability to produce successful outcomes while attending to changing environmental conditions. Few studies have assessed whether the perceptual environment affects motor skill execution. To test the effect of changing task complexity and stimulus conditions, the authors examined response times and target accuracy of 12 elite Australian football players using a passing-based laboratory test. Data were assessed using mixed modeling and chi-square analyses. No differences were found in target accuracy for changes in complexity or stimulus condition. Decision, movement and total disposal time increased with complexity and decision hesitations were greater when distractions were present. Decision, movement and disposal time were faster for auditory in comparison to visual signals, and when free to choose, players passed more frequently to auditory rather than visual targets. These results provide perspective on how basic motor control processes such as reaction and response to stimuli are influenced in a complex motor skill. Findings suggest auditory stimuli should be included in decision-making studies and may be an important part of a decision-training environment. PMID:25584721

  4. Cognitive tasks during expectation affect the congruency ERP effects to facial expressions

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Huiyan; Schulz, Claudia; Straube, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Expectancy congruency has been shown to modulate event-related potentials (ERPs) to emotional stimuli, such as facial expressions. However, it is unknown whether the congruency ERP effects to facial expressions can be modulated by cognitive manipulations during stimulus expectation. To this end, electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded while participants viewed (neutral and fearful) facial expressions. Each trial started with a cue, predicting a facial expression, followed by an expectancy interval without any cues and subsequently the face. In half of the trials, participants had to solve a cognitive task in which different letters were presented for target letter detection during the expectancy interval. Furthermore, facial expressions were congruent with the cues in 75% of all trials. ERP results revealed that for fearful faces, the cognitive task during expectation altered the congruency effect in N170 amplitude; congruent compared to incongruent fearful faces evoked larger N170 in the non-task condition but the congruency effect was not evident in the task condition. Regardless of facial expression, the congruency effect was generally altered by the cognitive task during expectation in P3 amplitude; the amplitudes were larger for incongruent compared to congruent faces in the non-task condition but the congruency effect was not shown in the task condition. The findings indicate that cognitive tasks during expectation reduce the processing of expectation and subsequently, alter congruency ERP effects to facial expressions. PMID:26578938

  5. Erroneous Knowledge of Results Affects Decision and Memory Processes on Timing Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryan, Lawrence J.; Fritz, Matthew S.

    2007-01-01

    On mental timing tasks, erroneous knowledge of results (KR) leads to incorrect performance accompanied by the subjective judgment of accurate performance. Using the start-stop technique (an analogue of the peak interval procedure) with both reproduction and production timing tasks, the authors analyze what processes erroneous KR alters. KR…

  6. Does Listening to Slow Tempo Classical Music During Independent Writing Affect Children's On-Task Performance?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKnight, Rosemary

    This project explored the effects of slow tempo classical music on children's on-task performance during independent writing. The project sample consisted of 24 students from a first grade classroom in the New York City Public School System. The students' on-task behavior was observed with and without use of slow tempo classical music playing, and…

  7. Do Content, Format, and Level of Inquiry Affect Scores on Open-Ended Science Tasks?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stecher, Brian M.; Klein, Stephen P.; Solano-Flores, Guillermo; McCaffrey, Dan; Robyn, Abby; Shavelson, Richard J.; Haertel, Edward

    This study investigated three factors that may contribute to the large variation in student performance across open-ended measures. These factors are content domain, format (whether the task required only pencil and paper or involved a hands-on manipulation of equipment), and level of inquiry (whether the task guided the student toward the…

  8. Housing conditions affect rat responses to two types of ambiguity in a reward–reward discrimination cognitive bias task

    PubMed Central

    Parker, Richard M.A.; Paul, Elizabeth S.; Burman, Oliver H.P.; Browne, William J.; Mendl, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Decision-making under ambiguity in cognitive bias tasks is a promising new indicator of affective valence in animals. Rat studies support the hypothesis that animals in a negative affective state evaluate ambiguous cues negatively. Prior automated operant go/go judgement bias tasks have involved training rats that an auditory cue of one frequency predicts a Reward and a cue of a different frequency predicts a Punisher (RP task), and then measuring whether ambiguous cues of intermediate frequency are judged as predicting reward (‘optimism’) or punishment (‘pessimism’). We investigated whether an automated Reward–Reward (RR) task yielded similar results to, and was faster to train than, RP tasks. We also introduced a new ambiguity test (simultaneous presentation of the two training cues) alongside the standard single ambiguous cue test. Half of the rats experienced an unpredictable housing treatment (UHT) designed to induce a negative state. Control rats were relatively ‘pessimistic’, whilst UHT rats were quicker, but no less accurate, in their responses in the RR test, and showed less anxiety-like behaviour in independent tests. A possible reason for these findings is that rats adapted to and were stimulated by UHT, whilst control rats in a predictable environment were more sensitive to novelty and change. Responses in the new ambiguity test correlated positively with those in single ambiguous cue tests, and may provide a measure of attention bias. The RR task was quicker to train than previous automated RP tasks. Together, they could be used to disentangle how reward and punishment processes underpin affect-induced cognitive biases. PMID:25106739

  9. Housing conditions affect rat responses to two types of ambiguity in a reward-reward discrimination cognitive bias task.

    PubMed

    Parker, Richard M A; Paul, Elizabeth S; Burman, Oliver H P; Browne, William J; Mendl, Michael

    2014-11-01

    Decision-making under ambiguity in cognitive bias tasks is a promising new indicator of affective valence in animals. Rat studies support the hypothesis that animals in a negative affective state evaluate ambiguous cues negatively. Prior automated operant go/go judgement bias tasks have involved training rats that an auditory cue of one frequency predicts a Reward and a cue of a different frequency predicts a Punisher (RP task), and then measuring whether ambiguous cues of intermediate frequency are judged as predicting reward ('optimism') or punishment ('pessimism'). We investigated whether an automated Reward-Reward (RR) task yielded similar results to, and was faster to train than, RP tasks. We also introduced a new ambiguity test (simultaneous presentation of the two training cues) alongside the standard single ambiguous cue test. Half of the rats experienced an unpredictable housing treatment (UHT) designed to induce a negative state. Control rats were relatively 'pessimistic', whilst UHT rats were quicker, but no less accurate, in their responses in the RR test, and showed less anxiety-like behaviour in independent tests. A possible reason for these findings is that rats adapted to and were stimulated by UHT, whilst control rats in a predictable environment were more sensitive to novelty and change. Responses in the new ambiguity test correlated positively with those in single ambiguous cue tests, and may provide a measure of attention bias. The RR task was quicker to train than previous automated RP tasks. Together, they could be used to disentangle how reward and punishment processes underpin affect-induced cognitive biases. PMID:25106739

  10. Young Children's Affective Decision-Making in a Gambling Task: Does Difficulty in Learning the Gain/Loss Schedule Matter?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gao, Shan; Wei, Yonggang; Bai, Junjie; Lin, Chongde; Li, Hong

    2009-01-01

    This research investigated the development of affective decision-making (ADM) during early childhood, in particular role of difficulty in learning a gain/loss schedule. In Experiment 1, we administrated the Children's Gambling Task (CGT) to 60 Chinese children aged 3 and 4, replicating the results obtained by Kerr and Zelazo [Kerr, A., & Zelazo,…

  11. Factors affecting performance on a target monitoring task employing an automatic tracker.

    PubMed

    McFadden, Sharon M; Vimalachandran, Abhirami; Blackmore, Elizabeth

    2004-02-26

    The experiments in this paper examined the extent to which performance on a task employing an automatic tracker was similar to performance on tasks employing other types of automation that have been studied more extensively. Automated target tracking is being used in many sensor and navigation systems to improve performance and help the operator cope with increased data loads. With many automated systems these goals are not met. In particular, the operator often misses errors made by the automated system and may report no decrease in workload. Several hypotheses have been offered for the operator's failure to monitor an automated system adequately. These include lack of experience with the manual task, a vigilance decrement, complacency, and inappropriate level of automation. The relevance of each of these hypotheses to failure to monitor an automatic tracker adequately was examined. Performance and perceived workload on a target tracking task employing an automatic tracker, in which participants had to detect and then update the position of several targets (e.g. ships) at regular intervals, were measured as a function of number of targets, training with the manual task, experience, and time on task. The results suggested that failure to detect errors made by the automated system was due largely to the lack of visibility of the automation errors relative to other errors. However, complacency could not be ruled out entirely. Unlike some other tasks, the availability of a reliable automatic tracker did lead to a substantial reduction in perceived workload. PMID:14668161

  12. Alzheimer's disease, but not ageing or depression, affects dual-tasking.

    PubMed

    Kaschel, Reiner; Logie, Robert H; Kazén, Miguel; Della Sala, Sergio

    2009-11-01

    Two experiments are reported that assess dual task performance in Alzheimer's disease (AD), in chronic depression and in healthy old age. Results suggest that dual task impairments are present in AD but are not shown in depression. This is true even when episodic memory performance is equated between the groups. These results, together with those of previous studies, point to dual task performance as an aid to diagnosis of AD relative to depression. This is of particular relevance when episodic memory tests cannot distinguish between the two conditions. The dual task paradigm appears to have considerable promise in assisting the early detection of the specific cognitive deficits associated with AD, and in monitoring their progression, both in the laboratory setting and in everyday tasks. Results also are of theoretical interest in pointing to a specific dual task coordination function in the healthy human cognitive system that allows for the coordination of two tasks performed simultaneously and which is damaged in AD but not in depression. PMID:19543789

  13. Self-Reported Stickiness of Mind-Wandering Affects Task Performance.

    PubMed

    van Vugt, Marieke K; Broers, Nico

    2016-01-01

    When asked to perform a certain task, we typically spend a decent amount of time thinking thoughts unrelated to that task-a phenomenon referred to as "mind-wandering." It is thought that this mind-wandering is driven at least in part by our unfinished goals and concerns. Previous studies have shown that just after presenting a participant with their own concerns, their reports of task-unrelated thinking increased somewhat. However, effects of these concerns on task performance were somewhat inconsistent. In this study we take the opposite approach, and examine whether task performance depends on the self-reported thought content. Specifically, a particularly intriguing aspect of mind-wandering that has hitherto received little attention is the difficulty of disengaging from it, in other words, the "stickiness" of the thoughts. While presenting participants with their own concerns was not associated with clear effects on task performance, we showed that the reports of off-task thinking and variability of response times increased with the amount of self-reported stickiness of thoughts. This suggests that the stickiness of mind-wandering is a relevant variable, and participants are able to meaningfully report on it. PMID:27242636

  14. Evaluation of an operant successive negative contrast task as a method to study affective state in rodents.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Emma N; Marston, Hugh M; Nutt, David J; Robinson, Emma S J

    2012-10-01

    Successive negative contrast (SNC) describes a change in an animal's behaviour following a downshift in the quantitative or qualitative value of a reward. Previous studies suggest both consummatory and instrumental paradigms have the potential to provide an objective measure of affective state in rodents. We first investigated whether an SNC effect is observed in an operant task based on the 5 choice serial reaction time task. We then tested whether this SNC effect was sensitive to differences in affective state induced by manipulating the home cage environment. In animals trained to receive a four pellet food reward, reinforcer downshift to a single reward pellet induced a significant slowing of both correct response and collection latencies to levels below that of animals which had only ever received the lower value reward, indicating a SNC effect. Home cage environmental enrichment resulted in a paradoxical effect on responses in this SNC task where animals housed in a barren environment showed faster baseline response times and the SNC effect was significantly attenuated. These data suggest that the animals housed in the barren conditions were in a more positive affective and/or motivational state during testing than animals housed in enriched cages. Although opposite to the effects of housing conditions in a runway SNC task, these data could be explained by the enriching effects of daily training in an operant task. Rather than inducing a negative affective state in rats, the barren housing conditions resulted in a relatively more positive affective state in the chamber when compared to animals living in a highly enriched environment. PMID:22732261

  15. Typical and atypical antipsychotic medications differentially affect two nondeclarative memory tasks in schizophrenic patients: a double dissociation.

    PubMed

    Beninger, Richard J; Wasserman, James; Zanibbi, Katherine; Charbonneau, Danielle; Mangels, Jennifer; Beninger, Bruce V

    2003-06-01

    Nondeclarative memory (NDM) has subtypes associated with different brain regions; learning of a probabilistic classification task is impaired by striatal damage and learning of a gambling task is impaired by ventromedial prefrontocortical damage. Typical and atypical antipsychotic medications differentially affect immediate early gene expression in the striatum and frontal cortex in normal rats. This suggested the hypothesis that schizophrenic patients treated with typical antipsychotics will have impaired probabilistic classification learning (PCL) and that similar patients treated with atypical antipsychotics will have impaired learning of the gambling task. Groups of schizophrenia patients treated with typical or atypical antipsychotics did not differ from each other on the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), Mini Mental State Exam (MMSE) or a number of indexes of the Wisconsin Card Sorting Task (WCST) but performed worse than normal controls on these instruments. In the first study, patients treated with typicals (n=20) but not atypicals (n=20) or normal controls (n=32) were impaired in probabilistic classification. In the second study, those treated with atypicals (n=18) but not typicals (n=18) or normal controls (n=18) were impaired in the gambling task. Results suggest that typical and atypical antipsychotics differentially affect nondeclarative memory mediated by different brain regions. PMID:12729880

  16. Self-Reported Stickiness of Mind-Wandering Affects Task Performance

    PubMed Central

    van Vugt, Marieke K.; Broers, Nico

    2016-01-01

    When asked to perform a certain task, we typically spend a decent amount of time thinking thoughts unrelated to that task–a phenomenon referred to as “mind-wandering.” It is thought that this mind-wandering is driven at least in part by our unfinished goals and concerns. Previous studies have shown that just after presenting a participant with their own concerns, their reports of task-unrelated thinking increased somewhat. However, effects of these concerns on task performance were somewhat inconsistent. In this study we take the opposite approach, and examine whether task performance depends on the self-reported thought content. Specifically, a particularly intriguing aspect of mind-wandering that has hitherto received little attention is the difficulty of disengaging from it, in other words, the “stickiness” of the thoughts. While presenting participants with their own concerns was not associated with clear effects on task performance, we showed that the reports of off-task thinking and variability of response times increased with the amount of self-reported stickiness of thoughts. This suggests that the stickiness of mind-wandering is a relevant variable, and participants are able to meaningfully report on it. PMID:27242636

  17. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profiles on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Blakenship, Clay B.; Wick, Gary A.; Neiman, Paul J.

    2013-01-01

    This project is a collaborative activity between the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) to evaluate a SPoRT Advanced Infrared Sounding Radiometer (AIRS: Aumann et al. 2003) enhanced moisture analysis product. We test the impact of assimilating AIRS temperature and humidity profiles above clouds and in partly cloudy regions, using the three-dimensional variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) system (Developmental Testbed Center 2012) to produce a new analysis. Forecasts of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized from the new analysis are compared to control forecasts without the additional AIRS data. We focus on some cases where atmospheric rivers caused heavy precipitation on the US West Coast. We verify the forecasts by comparison with dropsondes and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) Blended Total Precipitable Water product.

  18. Prediction Techniques in Operational Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhukov, Andrei

    2016-07-01

    The importance of forecasting space weather conditions is steadily increasing as our society is becoming more and more dependent on advanced technologies that may be affected by disturbed space weather. Operational space weather forecasting is still a difficult task that requires the real-time availability of input data and specific prediction techniques that are reviewed in this presentation, with an emphasis on solar and interplanetary weather. Key observations that are essential for operational space weather forecasting are listed. Predictions made on the base of empirical and statistical methods, as well as physical models, are described. Their validation, accuracy, and limitations are discussed in the context of operational forecasting. Several important problems in the scientific basis of predicting space weather are described, and possible ways to overcome them are discussed, including novel space-borne observations that could be available in future.

  19. ERP measures of math anxiety: how math anxiety affects working memory and mental calculation tasks?

    PubMed Central

    Klados, Manousos A.; Simos, Panagiotis; Micheloyannis, Sifis; Margulies, Daniel; Bamidis, Panagiotis D.

    2015-01-01

    There have been several attempts to account for the impact of Mathematical Anxiety (MA) on brain activity with variable results. The present study examines the effects of MA on ERP amplitude during performance of simple arithmetic calculations and working memory tasks. Data were obtained from 32 university students as they solved four types of arithmetic problems (one- and two-digit addition and multiplication) and a working memory task comprised of three levels of difficulty (1, 2, and 3-back task). Compared to the Low-MA group, High-MA individuals demonstrated reduced ERP amplitude at frontocentral (between 180–320 ms) and centroparietal locations (between 380–420 ms). These effects were independent of task difficulty/complexity, individual performance, and general state/trait anxiety levels. Results support the hypothesis that higher levels of self-reported MA are associated with lower cortical activation during the early stages of the processing of numeric stimuli in the context of cognitive tasks. PMID:26578912

  20. Task- and resting-state functional connectivity of brain regions related to affection and susceptible to concurrent cognitive demand

    PubMed Central

    Kellermann, Tanja S.; Caspers, Svenja; Fox, Peter T.; Zilles, Karl; Roski, Christian; Laird, Angela R.; Turetsky, Bruce I.; Eickhoff, Simon B.

    2016-01-01

    A recent fMRI-study revealed neural responses for affective processing of stimuli for which overt attention irrespective of stimulus valence was required in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and bilateral amygdala (AMY): activation decreased with increasing cognitive demand. To further characterize the network putatively related to this attenuation, we here characterized these regions with respect to their functional properties and connectivity patterns in task-dependent and task-independent states. All experiments of the BrainMap database activating the seed regions OFC and bilateral AMY were identified. Their functional characteristics were quantitatively inferred using the behavioral meta-data of the retrieved experiments. Task-dependent functional connectivity was characterized by meta-analytic connectivity modeling (MACM) of significant co-activations with these seed regions. Task-independent resting-state functional connectivity analysis in a sample of 100 healthy subjects complemented these analyses. All three seed regions co-activated with subgenual cingulum (SGC), precuneus (PCu) and nucleus accumbens (NAcc) in the task-dependent MACM analysis. Task-independent resting-state connectivity revealed significant coupling of the seeds only with the SGC, but not the PCu and the NAcc. The former region (SGC) moreover was shown to feature significant resting-state connectivity with all other regions implicated in the network connected to regions where emotional processing may be modulated by a cognitive distractor. Based on its functional profile and connectivity pattern, we suggest that the SGC might serve as a key hub in the identified network, as such linking autobiographic information [PCu], reward [NAcc], (reinforce) values [OFC] and emotional significance [AMY]. Such a role, in turn, may allow the SGC to influence the OFC and AMY to modulate affective processing. PMID:23370055

  1. Manipulations of Start and Food Locations Affect Navigation on a Foraging Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martin, Gerard M.; Pirzada, Ashar; Bridger, Alexander; Tomlin, Julian; Thorpe, Christina M.; Skinner, Darlene M.

    2011-01-01

    Rats were able to search multiple food cups in a foraging task and successfully return to a fixed, but not a variable, start location. Reducing the number of food cups to be searched resulted in an improvement in performance in the variable start condition. Performance was better when only one or two food cups had to be visited but was still…

  2. Abacus Training Affects Math and Task Switching Abilities and Modulates Their Relationships in Chinese Children.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chunjie; Geng, Fengji; Yao, Yuan; Weng, Jian; Hu, Yuzheng; Chen, Feiyan

    2015-01-01

    Our previous work demonstrated that abacus-based mental calculation (AMC), a traditional Chinese calculation method, could help children improve their math abilities (e.g. basic arithmetical ability) and executive function (e.g. working memory). This study further examined the effects of long-term AMC training on math ability in visual-spatial domain and the task switching component of executive function. More importantly, this study investigated whether AMC training modulated the relationship between math abilities and task switching. The participants were seventy 7-year-old children who were randomly assigned into AMC and control groups at primary school entry. Children in AMC group received 2-hour AMC training every week since primary school entry. On the contrary, children in the control group had never received any AMC training. Math and task switching abilities were measured one year and three years respectively after AMC training began. The results showed that AMC children performed better than their peers on math abilities in arithmetical and visual-spatial domains. In addition, AMC group responded faster than control group in the switching task, while no group difference was found in switch cost. Most interestingly, group difference was present in the relationships between math abilities and switch cost. These results implied the effect of AMC training on math abilities as well as its relationship with executive function. PMID:26444689

  3. How Stimulus and Task Complexity Affect Monitoring in High-Functioning Adults with Autism Spectrum Disorder

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koolen, Sophieke; Vissers, Constance Th. W. M.; Egger, Jos I. M.; Verhoeven, Ludo

    2014-01-01

    The present study examined whether individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are able to update and monitor working memory representations of visual input, and whether performance is influenced by stimulus and task complexity. 15 high-functioning adults with ASD and 15 controls were asked to allocate either elements of abstract figures or…

  4. Abacus Training Affects Math and Task Switching Abilities and Modulates Their Relationships in Chinese Children

    PubMed Central

    Yao, Yuan; Weng, Jian; Hu, Yuzheng; Chen, Feiyan

    2015-01-01

    Our previous work demonstrated that abacus-based mental calculation (AMC), a traditional Chinese calculation method, could help children improve their math abilities (e.g. basic arithmetical ability) and executive function (e.g. working memory). This study further examined the effects of long-term AMC training on math ability in visual-spatial domain and the task switching component of executive function. More importantly, this study investigated whether AMC training modulated the relationship between math abilities and task switching. The participants were seventy 7-year-old children who were randomly assigned into AMC and control groups at primary school entry. Children in AMC group received 2-hour AMC training every week since primary school entry. On the contrary, children in the control group had never received any AMC training. Math and task switching abilities were measured one year and three years respectively after AMC training began. The results showed that AMC children performed better than their peers on math abilities in arithmetical and visual-spatial domains. In addition, AMC group responded faster than control group in the switching task, while no group difference was found in switch cost. Most interestingly, group difference was present in the relationships between math abilities and switch cost. These results implied the effect of AMC training on math abilities as well as its relationship with executive function. PMID:26444689

  5. Gender and Prior Science Achievement Affect Categorization on a Procedural Learning Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hong, Jon-Chao; Lu, Chow-Chin; Wang, Jen-Lian; Liao, Shin; Wu, Ming-Ray; Hwang, Ming-Yueh; Lin, Pei-Hsin

    2013-01-01

    Categorization is one of the main mental processes by which perception and conception develop. Nevertheless, categorization receives little attention with the development of critical thinking in Taiwan elementary schools. Thus, the present study investigates the effect that individual differences have on performing categorization tasks.…

  6. Gamma-L-glutamyl-L-aspartate, interacting with NMDA receptors, affects appetitive visual discrimination tasks in mice.

    PubMed

    Melan, C; De Barry, J; Ungerer, A

    1991-05-01

    gamma-L-glutamyl-L-aspartate (gamma-LGLA), which interacts with NMDA receptors, has been shown to impair retention of an active avoidance task in mice. Here, we specified the behavioral effects of gamma-LGLA on acquisition and retention of appetitive nondelayed visual discrimination tasks. Three experiments were conducted: the peptide (0.25 and 2.5 microM/kg/25 ml. ip) was administered 3 min after each of the first six sessions of either original learning, reversal 1 or reversal 3. gamma-LGLA affected acquisition of the original task and of the first reversal, as revealed by an absence of improvement on initial sessions and an increased number of sessions to reach criterion fixed at 7 of 10 correct choices on three consecutive sessions. This deficit did not result from an action of the peptide on position habits (repetition of spatial choices) nor on motivational processes, suggesting a specific interference of gamma-LGLA with acquisition and memorization of the visual rule. In contrast, gamma-LGLA had no effect on acquisition of the third reversal, in which the positively reinforced visual stimulus was identical to that used on the first reversal. These results show that the behavioral deficits of gamma-LGLA, which had previously been demonstrated in an aversive task, can be generalized to appetitive tasks based on acquisition of a new rule. PMID:1829354

  7. Forecasting forecast skill

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

  8. Corporate Forecasting: Promise and Reality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wheelwright, Steven C.; Clarke, Darral G.

    1976-01-01

    Discusses a survey of forecast preparers and users in 127 major companies in an attempt to assess underlying problems and identify areas for improvement. Concludes that forecasting responsibilities and tasks must be better defined and that forecast preparers and users must become better informed about one another's roles. (Author/JG)

  9. The difficulty of the postural control task affects multi-muscle control during quiet standing.

    PubMed

    García-Massó, X; Pellicer-Chenoll, M; Gonzalez, L M; Toca-Herrera, J L

    2016-07-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the electromyographic (EMG) coherence between the lower limb and the core muscles when carrying out two postural tasks at different difficulty levels. EMG was recorded in 20 healthy male subjects while performing two independent quiet standing tasks. The first one involved a bipedal stance with the eyes open, while the second consisted of a dominant unipedal stance also with the eyes open. The obtained EMG signals were analysed by computing estimations of EMG-EMG coherence between muscle pairs, both singly (single-pair estimations) and combined (pooled estimations). Pooled and single coherence of anterior, posterior, core, antagonist and mixed pairs of muscles were significant in the 0-5 Hz frequency band. The results indicate that core and antagonist muscle groups, such as the anterior and posterior muscles, share low-frequency neural inputs (0-5 Hz) which could be responsible of the M-modes assembly. The core muscles could therefore provide the necessary synergy to maintain spine stability during the balancing exercise. Finally, differences in EMG-EMG coherence suggest that the muscle synergies formed during unipedal stance tasks are different from those established during bipedal stance. PMID:26942928

  10. The Perceived Informational Value and Affective Consequences of Choice Behavior and Intermediate Difficulty Task Selection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyer, Wulf-Uwe; And Others

    1976-01-01

    Four experiments are presented that examine the affective and the informational explanations of risk-preference behavior. Experiments I and II provide a phenomenological analysis of the affective and informational determinants of choice behavior while Experiments III and IV investigates at what level of difficulty individuals most desire…

  11. Categorization Method Affects the Typicality Effect: ERP Evidence from a Category-Inference Task

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiaoxi; Tao, Yun; Tempel, Tobias; Xu, Yuan; Li, Siqi; Tian, Yu; Li, Hong

    2016-01-01

    The typicality effect during categorization describes a phenomenon whereby typical items are more easily judged as members of a category than atypical items. Prior studies of the typicality effect have often used an inclusion task, which asks participants to assess whether an item belongs to a category. However, the correct exclusion of non-members is also an important component of effective categorization, which has yet to be directly investigated. Thus, the present study investigated how categorization method (inclusion vs. exclusion) modulates the typicality effect via behavioral and electrophysiological measures. Thirty-two participants (16 in the inclusion and 16 in the exclusion group) were shown six consecutive words that all shared one feature. Then, a seventh word was presented. The inclusion group judged whether the seventh word also possessed the feature, whereas the exclusion group judged whether the word did not possess the feature. The seventh word could be typical, atypical, or a nonmember of the category. Behavioral and event-related potential (ERP) data were collected. Behavioral results showed that the two groups did not differ in accuracy. However, typical items elicited shorter response times than atypical items, and this effect was more pronounced in the inclusion than the exclusion group. With regard to ERPs, interactions between item type and group were shown for the P2, N2, and N400 periods. Within the inclusion group, a typicality effect (indicated by a main effect of item type) was present in the P2 and N400 time windows, while the exclusion group elicited a typicality effect only in the N2 time window. These results provide electrophysiological evidence that an inclusion judgment task is more sensitive to category typicality than is an exclusion task. PMID:26925011

  12. Does head-only exposure to GSM-900 electromagnetic fields affect the performance of rats in spatial learning tasks?

    PubMed

    Dubreuil, Diane; Jay, Thérèse; Edeline, Jean-Marc

    2002-02-01

    The rapid expansion of mobile communication has generated intense interest, but has also fuelled ongoing concerns. In both humans and animals, radiofrequency radiations are suspected to affect cognitive functions. More specifically, several studies performed in rodents have suggested that spatial learning can be impaired by electromagnetic field exposure. However, none of these previous studies have simulated the common conditions of GSM mobile phones use. This study is the first using a head-only exposure system emitting a 900-MHz GSM electromagnetic field (pulsed at 217 Hz). The two behavioural tasks that were evaluated here have been used previously to demonstrate performance deficits in spatial learning after electromagnetic field exposure: a classical radial maze elimination task and a spatial navigation task in an open-field arena (dry-land version of the Morris water maze). The performances of rats exposed for 45 min to a 900-MHz electromagnetic field (1 and 3.5 W/kg) were compared to those of sham-exposed and cage-control rats. There were no differences among exposed, sham, and cage-control rats in the two spatial learning tasks. The discussion focuses on the potential reasons that led previous studies to conclude that learning deficits do occur after electromagnetic field exposure. PMID:11809512

  13. Effects of Task-oriented Approach on Affected Arm Function in Children with Spastic Hemiplegia Due to Cerebral Palsy

    PubMed Central

    Song, Chiang-Soon

    2014-01-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of the present study was to examine the effects of task-oriented approach on motor function of the affected arm in children with spastic hemiplegia due to cerebral palsy. [Subjects] Twelve children were recruited by convenience sampling from 2 local rehabilitation centers. The present study utilized a one-group pretest-posttest design. All of children received task-oriented training for 6 weeks (40 min/day, 5 days/week) and also underwent regular occupational therapy. Three clinical tests, Box and Block Test (BBT), Manual Ability Measure (MAM-16), and Wee Functional Independence Measure (WeeFIM) were performed 1 day before and after training to evaluate the effects of the training. [Results] Compared with the pretest scores, there was a significant increase in the BBT, MAM-16, and WeeFIM scores of the children after the 6-week practice period. [Conclusion] The results of this study suggest that a task-oriented approach to treatment of the affected arm improves functional activities, such as manual dexterity and fine motor performance, as well as basic daily activities of patients with spastic hemiplegia due to cerebral palsy. PMID:25013269

  14. Effects of Task-oriented Approach on Affected Arm Function in Children with Spastic Hemiplegia Due to Cerebral Palsy.

    PubMed

    Song, Chiang-Soon

    2014-06-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of the present study was to examine the effects of task-oriented approach on motor function of the affected arm in children with spastic hemiplegia due to cerebral palsy. [Subjects] Twelve children were recruited by convenience sampling from 2 local rehabilitation centers. The present study utilized a one-group pretest-posttest design. All of children received task-oriented training for 6 weeks (40 min/day, 5 days/week) and also underwent regular occupational therapy. Three clinical tests, Box and Block Test (BBT), Manual Ability Measure (MAM-16), and Wee Functional Independence Measure (WeeFIM) were performed 1 day before and after training to evaluate the effects of the training. [Results] Compared with the pretest scores, there was a significant increase in the BBT, MAM-16, and WeeFIM scores of the children after the 6-week practice period. [Conclusion] The results of this study suggest that a task-oriented approach to treatment of the affected arm improves functional activities, such as manual dexterity and fine motor performance, as well as basic daily activities of patients with spastic hemiplegia due to cerebral palsy. PMID:25013269

  15. Task-specific kinetic finger tremor affects the performance of carrom players.

    PubMed

    Kahathuduwa, Chanaka N; Weerasinghe, Vajira S; Dassanayake, Tharaka L; Priyadarshana, Rajeewa; Dissanayake, Arunika L; Perera, Christine

    2016-05-01

    We aimed to determine the effect of task-specific kinetic finger tremor, as indexed by surface electromyography (EMG), on the accuracy of a carrom stroke. Surface EMG of extensor digitorum communis muscle of the playing arm was recorded during rest, isometric contraction and stroke execution in 17 male carrom players with clinically observed finger tremor and 18 skill- and age-matched controls. Log-transformed power spectral densities (LogPSDs) of surface EMG activity (signifying tremor severity) at a 1-s pre-execution period correlated with angular error of the stroke. LogPSDs in 4-10 Hz range were higher in players with tremor than controls during pre-execution (P < 0.001), but not during the resting state (P = 0.067). Pre-execution tremor amplitude correlated with angular deviation (r = 0.45, P = 0.007). For the first time, we document a task-specific kinetic finger tremor in carrom players. This finger tremor during the immediate pre-execution phase appears to be a significant determinant of stroke accuracy. PMID:26280452

  16. Numeracy moderates the influence of task-irrelevant affect on probability weighting.

    PubMed

    Traczyk, Jakub; Fulawka, Kamil

    2016-06-01

    Statistical numeracy, defined as the ability to understand and process statistical and probability information, plays a significant role in superior decision making. However, recent research has demonstrated that statistical numeracy goes beyond simple comprehension of numbers and mathematical operations. On the contrary to previous studies that were focused on emotions integral to risky prospects, we hypothesized that highly numerate individuals would exhibit more linear probability weighting because they would be less biased by incidental and decision-irrelevant affect. Participants were instructed to make a series of insurance decisions preceded by negative (i.e., fear-inducing) or neutral stimuli. We found that incidental negative affect increased the curvature of the probability weighting function (PWF). Interestingly, this effect was significant only for less numerate individuals, while probability weighting in more numerate people was not altered by decision-irrelevant affect. We propose two candidate mechanisms for the observed effect. PMID:26968007

  17. Human factors with nonhumans - Factors that affect computer-task performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Washburn, David A.

    1992-01-01

    There are two general strategies that may be employed for 'doing human factors research with nonhuman animals'. First, one may use the methods of traditional human factors investigations to examine the nonhuman animal-to-machine interface. Alternatively, one might use performance by nonhuman animals as a surrogate for or model of performance by a human operator. Each of these approaches is illustrated with data in the present review. Chronic ambient noise was found to have a significant but inconsequential effect on computer-task performance by rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta). Additional data supported the generality of findings such as these to humans, showing that rhesus monkeys are appropriate models of human psychomotor performance. It is argued that ultimately the interface between comparative psychology and technology will depend on the coordinated use of both strategies of investigation.

  18. Differences in cortical activity between methamphetamine-dependent and healthy individuals performing a facial affect matching task.

    PubMed

    Payer, Doris E; Lieberman, Matthew D; Monterosso, John R; Xu, Jiansong; Fong, Timothy W; London, Edythe D

    2008-01-11

    As individuals who abuse methamphetamine (MA) often exhibit socially maladaptive behaviors such as violence and aggression, it is possible that they respond abnormally to social cues. To investigate this issue, we exposed 12 MA-dependent participants (abstinent 5-16 days) and 12 healthy comparison participants to fearful and angry faces while they performed an affect matching task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Although the groups did not differ in task performance, the healthy participants showed more task-related activity than the MA-dependent participants in a set of cortical regions consisting of the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC), temporoparietal junction (TPJ), anterior and posterior temporal cortex, and fusiform gyrus in the right hemisphere, and the cuneus in the left hemisphere. In contrast, the MA-dependent participants showed more task-related activity than the healthy participants in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC). As expected, the task elicited activation of the amygdala in both groups; however, contrary to expectation, we found no difference between groups in this activation. Dorsal ACC hyperactivity, along with high self-ratings of hostility and interpersonal sensitivity in the MA-dependent group, suggest a hyper-sensitivity to socially threatening cues in the MA-dependent participants, while lower VLPFC activation could point to a deficit in integrating socio-emotional information and/or regulating this limbic hyperactivity. Additional activation differences in neural circuitry related to social cognition (TPJ, anterior, and posterior temporal cortex) suggest further socio-emotional deficits. Together, the results point to cortical abnormalities that could underlie the socially inappropriate behaviors often shown by individuals who abuse MA. PMID:17964741

  19. In vivo measurements of limbic glutamate and GABA concentrations in epileptic patients during affective and cognitive tasks: A microdialysis study.

    PubMed

    Buchanan, Robert J; Gjini, Klevest; Modur, Pradeep; Meier, Kevin T; Nadasdy, Zoltan; Robinson, Jennifer L

    2016-05-01

    Limbic system structures such as the amygdala (AMG) and the hippocampus (HIPP) are involved in affective and cognitive processing. However, because of the limitations in noninvasive technology, absolute concentrations of the neurotransmitters underlying limbic system engagement are not known. Here, we report changes in the concentrations of the neurotransmitters glutamate (Glu) and gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) in the HIPP and the AMG of patients with nonlesional temporal lobe epilepsy undergoing surgery for intracranial subdural and depth electrode implantation. We utilized an in-vivo microdialysis technique while subjects were engaged in cognitive tasks with or without emotional content. The performance of an emotion learning task (EmoLearn) was associated with a significant increase in the concentration of glutamate in the HIPP when images with high valence content were processed, as compared to its concentration while processing images with low valence. In addition, significantly decreased levels of glutamate were found in the AMG when images with predominantly low valence content were processed, as compared to its concentration at baseline. The processing of face stimuli with anger/fear content (FaceMatch task) was accompanied with significantly decreased concentrations of GABA in the AMG and HIPP compared to its levels at the baseline. The processing of shapes on the other hand was accompanied with a significantly decreased concentration of the glutamate in the AMG as well as in the HIPP compared to the baseline. Finally, the performance of a nondeclarative memory task (weather prediction task-WPT) was associated with relatively large and opposite changes in the GABA levels compared to the baseline in the AMG (decrease) and the HIPP (increase). These data are relevant for showing an involvement of the amygdala and the hippocampus in emotional processing and provide additional neurochemical clues towards a more refined model of the functional circuitry of the

  20. TRAVEL FORECASTER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mauldin, L. E.

    1994-01-01

    Business travel planning within an organization is often a time-consuming task. Travel Forecaster is a menu-driven, easy-to-use program which plans, forecasts cost, and tracks actual vs. planned cost for business-related travel of a division or branch of an organization and compiles this information into a database to aid the travel planner. The program's ability to handle multiple trip entries makes it a valuable time-saving device. Travel Forecaster takes full advantage of relational data base properties so that information that remains constant, such as per diem rates and airline fares (which are unique for each city), needs entering only once. A typical entry would include selection with the mouse of the traveler's name and destination city from pop-up lists, and typed entries for number of travel days and purpose of the trip. Multiple persons can be selected from the pop-up lists and multiple trips are accommodated by entering the number of days by each appropriate month on the entry form. An estimated travel cost is not required of the user as it is calculated by a Fourth Dimension formula. With this information, the program can produce output of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for either organization or sub-entity of an organization; or produce outputs of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for international-only travel. It will also provide monthly and cumulative formats of planned vs. actual outputs in data or graph form. Travel Forecaster users can do custom queries to search and sort information in the database, and it can create custom reports with the user-friendly report generator. Travel Forecaster 1.1 is a database program for use with Fourth Dimension Runtime 2.1.1. It requires a Macintosh Plus running System 6.0.3 or later, 2Mb of RAM and a hard disk. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. Travel Forecaster was developed in 1991. Macintosh is a registered trademark of

  1. Affective Priming in a Lexical Decision Task: Is There an Effect of Words' Concreteness?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ferré, Pilar; Sánchez-Casas, Rosa

    2014-01-01

    Affective priming occurs when responses to a target are facilitated when it is preceded by a prime congruent in valence. We conducted two experiments in order to test whether this is a genuine emotional effect or rather it can be accounted for by semantic relatedness between primes and targets. With this aim, semantic relatedness and emotional…

  2. Relationship between Defenses, Personality, and Affect during a Stress Task in Normal Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steiner, Hans; Erickson, Sarah J.; MacLean, Peggy; Medic, Sanja; Plattner, Belinda; Koopman, Cheryl

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Although there are extensive data on the relationship between personality and stress reactivity in adults, there is little comparable empirical research with adolescents. This study examines the simultaneous relationships between long term functioning (personality, defenses) and observed stress reactivity (affect) in adolescents.…

  3. Spatiotemporal Object History Affects the Selection of Task-Relevant Properties

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schreij, Daniel; Olivers, Christian N. L.

    2013-01-01

    For stable perception, we maintain mental representations of objects across space and time. What information is linked to such a representation? In this study, we extended our work showing that the spatiotemporal history of an object affects the way the object is attended the next time it is encountered. Observers conducted a visual search for a…

  4. Executive Functions are not Affected by 24 Hours of Sleep Deprivation: A Color-Word Stroop Task Study

    PubMed Central

    Dixit, Abhinav; Mittal, Tushar

    2015-01-01

    Background: Sleep is an important factor affecting cognitive performance. Sleep deprivation results in fatigue, lack of concentration, confusion and sleepiness along with anxiety, depression and irritability. Sleep deprivation can have serious consequences in professions like armed forces and medicine where quick decisions and actions need to be taken. Color-Word Stroop task is one of the reliable tests to assess attention and it analyzes the processing of information in two dimensions i.e., reading of words and naming of colour. The evidence regarding the effect of sleep deprivation on Stroop interference is conflicting. The present study evaluated the effect of 24 hours of sleep deprivation on reaction time and interference in Stroop task. Materials and Methods: The present study was done on 30 healthy male medical student volunteers in the age group of 18-25 years after taking their consent and clearance from Institute Ethics Committee. Recordings of Stroop task were at three times: baseline (between 7-9 am), after 12 hours (7-9 pm) and after 24 hours (7-9 am, next day). The subjects were allowed to perform normal daily activities. Results: The study revealed a significant increase in reaction time after 24 hours of sleep deprivation in comparison to baseline and after 12 hours of sleep deprivation. There was no significant change in interference and facilitation after sleep deprivation in comparison to baseline. The number of errors also did not show any significant change after sleep deprivation. Conclusion: The study indicated that there was slowing of responses without change in executive functions after 24 hours of sleep deprivation. It is probable that 24 hours of sleep deprivation does not bring about change in areas of brain affecting executive functions in healthy individuals who have normal sleep cycle. The present study indicated that in professions like armed forces and medicine working 24 hours at a stretch can lead to decrease in motor responses

  5. Hand proximity differentially affects visual working memory for color and orientation in a binding task.

    PubMed

    Kelly, Shane P; Brockmole, James R

    2014-01-01

    Observers determined whether two sequentially presented arrays of six lines were the same or different. Differences, when present, involved either a swap in the color of two lines or a swap in the orientation of two lines. Thus, accurate change detection required the binding of color and orientation information for each line within visual working memory. Holding viewing distance constant, the proximity of the arrays to the hands was manipulated. Placing the hands near the to-be-remembered array decreased participants' ability to remember color information, but increased their ability to remember orientation information. This pair of results indicates that hand proximity differentially affects the processing of various types of visual information, a conclusion broadly consistent with functional and anatomical differences in the magnocellular and parvocellular pathways. It further indicates that hand proximity affects the likelihood that various object features will be encoded into integrated object files. PMID:24795671

  6. Handle Shape Affects the Grip Force Distribution and the Muscle Loadings During Power Grip Tasks.

    PubMed

    Rossi, Jérémy; Goislard De Monsabert, Benjamin; Berton, Eric; Vigouroux, Laurent

    2015-12-01

    The objectives of this study were to investigate the effect of handle shape on the grip force distribution in the hand and on the muscle forces during maximal power grip tasks. Eleven subjects maximally grasped 3 handles with different external shapes (circular, elliptic, and double-frustum). A handle dynamometer, equipped with both a force sensor and a pressure map, was used to record the forces exerted at the hand/handle interface. The finger and wrist joint postures were also computed from synchronized kinematic measurement. These processed data were then used as input of a biomechanical hand model to estimate muscle forces. The results showed that handle shape influences the maximal grip force, the grip force distribution, and the finger joint postures. Particularly, we observed that the elliptical shape resulted in a 6.6% lower maximal grip force compared with the circular and double-frustum handle. Concomitantly, the estimated muscle forces also varied significantly according to the handle shape, with up to 48% differences for the flexor digitorum superficialis muscle for example. Interestingly, different muscle coordination strategies were observed depending on the handle shape, therefore suggesting a potential influence of these geometrical characteristics on pathological risks such as tendonitis. PMID:26214057

  7. Functional Correlates of childhood maltreatment and symptom severity during affective theory of mind tasks in chronic depression.

    PubMed

    Hentze, Charlotte; Walter, Henrik; Schramm, Elisabeth; Drost, Sarah; Schoepf, Dieter; Fangmeier, Thomas; Mattern, Margarete; Normann, Claus; Zobel, Ingo; Schnell, Knut

    2016-04-30

    Among multiple etiological factors of depressive disorders, childhood maltreatment (CM) gains increasing attention as it confers susceptibility for depression and predisposes to chronicity. CM assumedly inhibits social-cognitive development, entailing interactional problems as observed in chronic depression (CD), especially in affective theory of mind (ToM). However, the extent of CM among CD patients varies notably as does the severity of depressive symptoms. We tested whether the extent of CM or depressive symptoms correlates with affective ToM functions in CD patients. Regional brain activation measured by functional magnetic resonance imaging during an affective ToM task was tested for correlation with CM, assessed by the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ), and symptom severity, assessed by the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS), in 25 unmedicated CD patients (mean age 41.52, SD 11.13). Amygdala activation during affective ToM correlated positively with CTQ total scores, while (para)hippocampal response correlated negatively with MADRS scores. Our findings suggest that differential amygdala activation in affective ToM in CD is substantially modulated by previous CM and not by the pathophysiological equivalents of current depressive symptoms. This illustrates the amygdala's role in the mediation of CM effects. The negative correlation of differential (para)hippocampal activation and depressive symptom severity indicates reduced integration of interactional experiences during depressive states. PMID:27107154

  8. Arm dominance affects feedforward strategy more than feedback sensitivity during a postural task.

    PubMed

    Walker, Elise H E; Perreault, Eric J

    2015-07-01

    Handedness is a feature of human motor control that is still not fully understood. Recent work has demonstrated that the dominant and nondominant arm each excel at different behaviors and has proposed that this behavioral asymmetry arises from lateralization in the cerebral cortex: the dominant side specializes in predictive trajectory control, while the nondominant side is specialized for impedance control. Long-latency stretch reflexes are an automatic mechanism for regulating posture and have been shown to contribute to limb impedance. To determine whether long-latency reflexes also contribute to asymmetric motor behavior in the upper limbs, we investigated the effect of arm dominance on stretch reflexes during a postural task that required varying degrees of impedance control. Our results demonstrated slightly but significantly larger reflex responses in the biarticular muscles of the nondominant arm, as would be consistent with increased impedance control. These differences were attributed solely to higher levels of voluntary background activity in the nondominant biarticular muscles, indicating that feedforward strategies for postural stability may differ between arms. Reflex sensitivity, which was defined as the magnitude of the reflex response for matched levels of background activity, was not significantly different between arms for a broad subject population ranging from 23 to 51 years of age. These results indicate that inter-arm differences in feedforward strategies are more influential during posture than differences in feedback sensitivity, in a broad subject population. Interestingly, restricting our analysis to subjects under 40 years of age revealed a small increase in long-latency reflex sensitivity in the nondominant arm relative to the dominant arm. Though our subject numbers were small for this secondary analysis, it suggests that further studies may be required to assess the influence of reflex lateralization throughout development. PMID

  9. Arm Dominance Affects Feedforward Strategy more than Feedback Sensitivity during a Postural Task

    PubMed Central

    Walker, Elise H. E.; Perreault, Eric J.

    2015-01-01

    Handedness is a feature of human motor control that is still not fully understood. Recent work has demonstrated that the dominant and nondominant arm each excel at different behaviors, and has proposed that this behavioral asymmetry arises from lateralization in the cerebral cortex: the dominant side specializes in predictive trajectory control, while the nondominant side is specialized for impedance control. Long-latency stretch reflexes are an automatic mechanism for regulating posture, and have been shown to contribute to limb impedance. To determine whether long-latency reflexes also contribute to asymmetric motor behavior in the upper limbs, we investigated the effect of arm dominance on stretch reflexes during a postural task that required varying degrees of impedance control. Our results demonstrated slightly but significantly larger reflex responses in the biarticular muscles of the nondominant arm, as would be consistent with increased impedance control. These differences were attributed solely to higher levels of voluntary background activity in the nondominant biarticular muscles, indicating that feedforward strategies for postural stability may differ between arms. Reflex sensitivity, which was defined as the magnitude of the reflex response for matched levels of background activity, was not significantly different between arms for a broad subject population ranging from 23–51 years of age. These results indicate that inter-arm differences in feedforward strategies are more influential during posture than differences in feedback sensitivity, in a broad subject population. Interestingly, restricting our analysis to subjects under 40 years of age revealed a small increase in long-latency reflex sensitivity in the nondominant arm relative to the dominant arm. Though our subject numbers were small for this secondary analysis, it suggests that further studies may be required to assess the influence of reflex lateralization throughout development. PMID

  10. Task-Oriented and Bottle Feeding Adversely Affect the Quality of Mother-Infant Interactions Following Abnormal Newborn Screens

    PubMed Central

    Tluczek, Audrey; Clark, Roseanne; McKechnie, Anne Chevalier; Orland, Kate Murphy; Brown, Roger L.

    2010-01-01

    Objective Examine effects of newborn screening (NBS) and neonatal diagnosis on the quality of mother-infant interactions in the context of feeding. Methods Study compared the quality of mother-infant feeding interactions among four groups of infants classified by severity of NBS and diagnostic results: cystic fibrosis (CF), congenital hypothyroidism, heterozygote CF carrier, and healthy with normal NBS. The Parent-Child Early Relational Assessment and a task-oriented item measured the quality of feeding interactions for 130 dyads, infant ages 3–19 weeks (M=9.19, SD=3.28). The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory measured maternal depression and anxiety. Results Composite Indicator Structure Equation Modeling showed that infant diagnostic status and, to a lesser extent, maternal education predicted feeding method. Mothers of infants with CF were most likely to bottle feed, which was associated with more task-oriented maternal behavior than breastfeeding. Mothers with low task-oriented behavior showed more sensitivity and responsiveness to infant cues, as well as less negative affect and behavior in their interactions with their infants than mothers with high task-oriented scores. Mothers of infants with CF were significantly more likely to have clinically significant anxiety and depression than the other groups. However, maternal psychological profile did not predict feeding method or interaction quality. Conclusions Mothers in the CF group were the least likely to breastfeed. Research is needed to explicate long-term effects of feeding methods on quality of mother-child relationship and ways to promote continued breastfeeding following a neonatal CF diagnosis. PMID:20495477

  11. The dual task-cost of standing balance affects quality of life in mildly disabled MS people.

    PubMed

    Castelli, Letizia; De Luca, Francesca; Marchetti, Maria Rita; Sellitto, Giovanni; Fanelli, Fulvia; Prosperini, Luca

    2016-05-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the correlations between the dual-task cost (DTC) of standing balance and quality of life (QoL) in mildly disabled patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). In this cross-sectional study, patients affected by MS with an expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score of 3.0 or less and without an overt balance impairment were tested by means of static posturography under eyes-opened (single-task condition) and while performing the Stroop word-color test (dual-task condition), to estimate the DTC of standing balance. The self-reported 54-item MS quality of life questionnaire (MSQoL-54) was also administered to obtain a MS-specific assessment of health-related QoL. Among the 120 screened patients, 75 (53 women, 22 men) were tested. Although there was no impact of the DTC of standing balance on the physical and mental composite scores of MSQoL-54, patients who had a greater DTC of standing balance scored worse on role limitations due to physical problems (p = 0.007) and social function (p < 0.001), irrespective of demographic and other clinical characteristics including walking performance and cognitive status. However, the EDSS step and fatigue also contributed to reduced scores in these two QoL domains (p-values < 0.01). In conclusion, the phenomenon of cognitive-motor interference, investigated as DTC of standing balance, may affect specific QoL domains even in mildly disabled patients with MS and in the absence of an overt balance dysfunction. PMID:26728268

  12. How Explicit and Implicit Test Instructions in an Implicit Learning Task Affect Performance

    PubMed Central

    Witt, Arnaud; Puspitawati, Ira; Vinter, Annie

    2013-01-01

    Typically developing children aged 5 to 8 years were exposed to artificial grammar learning. Following an implicit exposure phase, half of the participants received neutral instructions at test while the other half received instructions making a direct, explicit reference to the training phase. We first aimed to assess whether implicit learning operated in the two test conditions. We then evaluated the differential impact of age on learning performances as a function of test instructions. The results showed that performance did not vary as a function of age in the implicit instructions condition, while age effects emerged when explicit instructions were employed at test. However, performance was affected differently by age and the instructions given at test, depending on whether the implicit learning of short or long units was assessed. These results suggest that the claim that the implicit learning process is independent of age needs to be revised. PMID:23326409

  13. Gait in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: Is gait pattern differently affected in spinal and bulbar onset of the disease during dual task walking?

    PubMed

    Radovanović, Sasa; Milićev, Milena; Perić, Stojan; Basta, Ivana; Kostić, Vladimir; Stević, Zorica

    2014-12-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is characterized by weakness, fatigue, loss of balance and coordination. The purpose of the study was to examine gait in ALS patients. Gait was compared in ALS with spinal and bulbar onset, while performing dual mental and motor tasks. Dual-task walking was performed by 27 ALS patients, 13 with spinal- and 14 with bulbar-onset disease. Twenty-nine healthy subjects were used as a control group. The subjects performed a basic, simple walking task, dual-motor task, dual-mental task, and combined motor and mental tasks. Results showed that dual-task paradigm has an effect on gait in ALS patients. Gait was differently affected in spinal and bulbar onset of ALS by some of the given tasks. Mental tasks had a larger effect than motor tasks in all gait parameters. In conclusion, both ALS forms have impaired gait in dual tasks. Simple walk in patients with spinal onset shows higher variability of certain gait parameters compared to bulbar-onset patients and controls. Differences in gait could also indicate postural instability and possible falls in complex walking situations. PMID:24918304

  14. Changes in task-extrinsic context do not affect the persistence of long-term cumulative structural priming.

    PubMed

    Kutta, Timothy J; Kaschak, Michael P

    2012-11-01

    We present two experiments exploring the role of extrinsic memory factors (i.e., factors that are extrinsic to the primary task that is being performed) and intrinsic memory factors (i.e., factors that are intrinsic to the primary task being completed) in the persistence of cumulative structural priming effects. Participants completed a two-phase experiment, where the first phase established a bias toward producing either the double object or prepositional object construction, and the second phase assessed the effects of this bias. Extrinsic memory factors were manipulated by having participants complete the two phases of the study in the same or different locations (physical context change) or while watching the same or different videos (video context change). Participants completed the second phase of the study 10 min after the first phase of the study in Experiment 1, and after a delay of 1 week in Experiment 2. Results suggest that the observed structural priming effects were not affected by manipulations of extrinsic memory factors. These data suggest that explicit memory does not play a large role in the long-term persistence of cumulative structural priming effects. PMID:23103416

  15. Activation and measurement of threat associations in fear of spiders: an application of the Extrinsic Affective Simon Task.

    PubMed

    Ellwart, Thomas; Becker, Eni S; Rinck, Mike

    2005-12-01

    The Extrinsic Affective Simon Task (DeHouwer, EAST; Experimental Psychol. 50 (2003) 77) was used to assess how different context conditions lead to differential activation of cognitive schemata in anxiety. Participants completed two identical EASTs, in which ambiguous target words (e.g., legs, net) were categorized together with pleasant words and unpleasant, fear-related words. Each EAST was preceded by the presentation of pictures, activating either a 'human' concept or a 'spider' concept. Results indicated that spider fearful participants showed threat associations towards the target words, but only when the spider concept was primed. Non-fearful participants did not show threat associations with either type of priming. We conclude that impact of threat associations depends on the activated context, and that the EAST is suitable for the assessment of fear associations and their current activation level. PMID:16153389

  16. Young Children's Affective Responses to Acceptance and Rejection from Peers: A Computer-Based Task Sensitive to Variation in Temperamental Shyness and Gender

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howarth, Grace Z.; Guyer, Amanda E.; Perez-Edgar, Koraly

    2013-01-01

    This study presents a novel task examining young children's affective responses to evaluative feedback--specifically, social acceptance and rejection--from peers. We aimed to determine (1) whether young children report their affective responses to hypothetical peer evaluation predictably and consistently, and (2) whether young children's responses…

  17. One Night of Sleep Deprivation Affects Reaction Time, but Not Interference or Facilitation in a Stroop Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cain, Sean W.; Silva, Edward J.; Chang, Anne-Marie; Ronda, Joseph M.; Duffy, Jeanne F.

    2011-01-01

    The Stroop color-naming task is one of the most widely studied tasks involving the inhibition of a prepotent response, regarded as an executive function. Several studies have examined performance on versions of the Stroop task under conditions of acute sleep deprivation. Though these studies revealed effects on Stroop performance, the results…

  18. Data Assimilation of AIRS Water Vapor Profiles: Impact on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western of the United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blankenship, Clay; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary; Wick, Gary; Neiman, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric rivers are transient, narrow regions in the atmosphere responsible for the transport of large amounts of water vapor. These phenomena can have a large impact on precipitation. In particular, they can be responsible for intense rain events on the western coast of North America during the winter season. This paper focuses on attempts to improve forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Western US due to atmospheric rivers. Profiles of water vapor derived from from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations are combined with GFS forecasts by a three-dimensional variational data assimilation in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI). Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forecasts initialized from the combined field are compared to forecasts initialized from the GFS forecast only for 3 test cases in the winter of 2011. Results will be presented showing the impact of the AIRS profile data on water vapor and temperature fields, and on the resultant precipitation forecasts.

  19. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  20. Pathways from Childhood Abuse to Prospective Revictimization: Depression, Sex to Reduce Negative Affect, and Forecasted Sexual Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Miron, Lynsey R.; Orcutt, Holly K.

    2014-01-01

    Research suggests that adverse events in childhood, such as childhood physical, sexual, and emotional abuse, confer risk for later sexual assault. Psychological distress, coping strategies, and sexual behavior may help explain the path from childhood abuse to revictimization. The present study explored how the use of sex to regulate negative affect (SRNA) operates independently, and in combination with other psychosocial factors to increase college women’s (N = 541) risk of experiencing prospective adult sexual assault (ASA). Sequential multiple mediator models in Mplus were used to assess the effect of three different forms of childhood abuse on prospective ASA, both independently and while controlling for other forms of childhood abuse. The indirect effect of adolescent sexual assault (AdolSA), depressive symptoms, SRNA, and participants’ response to a sex-related vignette was tested using bias-corrected bootstrapping. In the full path model, childhood emotional abuse and AdolSA predicted ASA, while childhood physical and sexual abuse were directly associated with AdolSA, but not ASA. Additionally, depressive symptoms and participants’ estimate of their likely behavior in a sex-related vignette directly predicted prospective ASA. Results using bootstrapping revealed that a history of childhood abuse predicted prospective ASA via diverse direct and indirect paths, as well as through a similar multiple mediator path. Overall, findings suggest that a combination of affective, coping, and sexual expectancy factors contribute to risk for revictimization in adult survivors of childhood abuse. Future research directions and targets for risk-reduction programming will be discussed. PMID:25455965

  1. Which Factors Affect Hand Selection in Children's Grasping in Hemispace? Combined Effects of Task Demand and Motor Dominance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leconte, Pascale; Fagard, Jacqueline

    2006-01-01

    Sixty-five right- and left-handed preschool and school children were tested on three reach-to-grasp tasks of different levels of complexity, performed in three space locations. Our goal was to evaluate how the effect of attentional information related to object location interacts with task complexity and degree of handedness on children's hand…

  2. The use of a displacement device negatively affects the performance of dogs (Canis familiaris) in visible object displacement tasks

    PubMed Central

    Müller, Corsin A.; Riemer, Stefanie; Range, Friederike; Huber, Ludwig

    2014-01-01

    Visible and invisible displacement tasks have been used widely for comparative studies of animals’ understanding of object permanence, with evidence accumulating that some species can solve invisible displacement tasks and thus reach Piagetian stage 6 of object permanence. In contrast, dogs appear to rely on associative cues, such as the location of the displacement device, during invisible displacement tasks. It remains unclear, however, whether dogs, and other species that failed in invisible displacement tasks, do so due to their inability to form a mental representation of the target object, or simply due to the involvement of a more salient but potentially misleading associative cue, the displacement device. Here we show that the use of a displacement device impairs the performance of dogs also in visible displacement tasks: their search accuracy was significantly lower when a visible displacement was performed with a displacement device, and only two of initially 42 dogs passed the sham-baiting control conditions. The negative influence of the displacement device in visible displacement tasks may be explained by strong associative cues overriding explicit information about the target object’s location, reminiscent of an overshadowing effect, and/or object individuation errors as the target object is placed within the displacement device and moves along a spatiotemporally identical trajectory. Our data suggest that a comprehensive appraisal of a species’ performance in object permanence tasks should include visible displacement tasks with the same displacement device used in invisible displacements, which typically has not been done in the past. PMID:24611641

  3. The Personality Trait of Intolerance to Uncertainty Affects Behavior in a Novel Computer-Based Conditioned Place Preference Task.

    PubMed

    Radell, Milen L; Myers, Catherine E; Beck, Kevin D; Moustafa, Ahmed A; Allen, Michael Todd

    2016-01-01

    Recent work has found that personality factors that confer vulnerability to addiction can also affect learning and economic decision making. One personality trait which has been implicated in vulnerability to addiction is intolerance to uncertainty (IU), i.e., a preference for familiar over unknown (possibly better) options. In animals, the motivation to obtain drugs is often assessed through conditioned place preference (CPP), which compares preference for contexts where drug reward was previously received. It is an open question whether participants with high IU also show heightened preference for previously rewarded contexts. To address this question, we developed a novel computer-based CPP task for humans in which participants guide an avatar through a paradigm in which one room contains frequent reward (i.e., rich) and one contains less frequent reward (i.e., poor). Following exposure to both contexts, subjects are assessed for preference to enter the previously rich and previously poor room. Individuals with low IU showed little bias to enter the previously rich room first, and instead entered both rooms at about the same rate which may indicate a foraging behavior. By contrast, those with high IU showed a strong bias to enter the previously rich room first. This suggests an increased tendency to chase reward in the intolerant group, consistent with previously observed behavior in opioid-addicted individuals. Thus, the personality factor of high IU may produce a pre-existing cognitive bias that provides a mechanism to promote decision-making processes that increase vulnerability to addiction. PMID:27555829

  4. The Personality Trait of Intolerance to Uncertainty Affects Behavior in a Novel Computer-Based Conditioned Place Preference Task

    PubMed Central

    Radell, Milen L.; Myers, Catherine E.; Beck, Kevin D.; Moustafa, Ahmed A.; Allen, Michael Todd

    2016-01-01

    Recent work has found that personality factors that confer vulnerability to addiction can also affect learning and economic decision making. One personality trait which has been implicated in vulnerability to addiction is intolerance to uncertainty (IU), i.e., a preference for familiar over unknown (possibly better) options. In animals, the motivation to obtain drugs is often assessed through conditioned place preference (CPP), which compares preference for contexts where drug reward was previously received. It is an open question whether participants with high IU also show heightened preference for previously rewarded contexts. To address this question, we developed a novel computer-based CPP task for humans in which participants guide an avatar through a paradigm in which one room contains frequent reward (i.e., rich) and one contains less frequent reward (i.e., poor). Following exposure to both contexts, subjects are assessed for preference to enter the previously rich and previously poor room. Individuals with low IU showed little bias to enter the previously rich room first, and instead entered both rooms at about the same rate which may indicate a foraging behavior. By contrast, those with high IU showed a strong bias to enter the previously rich room first. This suggests an increased tendency to chase reward in the intolerant group, consistent with previously observed behavior in opioid-addicted individuals. Thus, the personality factor of high IU may produce a pre-existing cognitive bias that provides a mechanism to promote decision-making processes that increase vulnerability to addiction. PMID:27555829

  5. An Approach to Improve the Performance of PM Forecasters

    PubMed Central

    de Mattos Neto, Paulo S. G.; Cavalcanti, George D. C.; Madeiro, Francisco; Ferreira, Tiago A. E.

    2015-01-01

    The particulate matter (PM) concentration has been one of the most relevant environmental concerns in recent decades due to its prejudicial effects on living beings and the earth’s atmosphere. High PM concentration affects the human health in several ways leading to short and long term diseases. Thus, forecasting systems have been developed to support decisions of the organizations and governments to alert the population. Forecasting systems based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been highlighted in the literature due to their performances. In general, three ANN-based approaches have been found for this task: ANN trained via learning algorithms, hybrid systems that combine search algorithms with ANNs, and hybrid systems that combine ANN with other forecasters. Independent of the approach, it is common to suppose that the residuals (error series), obtained from the difference between actual series and forecasting, have a white noise behavior. However, it is possible that this assumption is infringed due to: misspecification of the forecasting model, complexity of the time series or temporal patterns of the phenomenon not captured by the forecaster. This paper proposes an approach to improve the performance of PM forecasters from residuals modeling. The approach analyzes the remaining residuals recursively in search of temporal patterns. At each iteration, if there are temporal patterns in the residuals, the approach generates the forecasting of the residuals in order to improve the forecasting of the PM time series. The proposed approach can be used with either only one forecaster or by combining two or more forecasting models. In this study, the approach is used to improve the performance of a hybrid system (HS) composed by genetic algorithm (GA) and ANN from residuals modeling performed by two methods, namely, ANN and own hybrid system. Experiments were performed for PM2.5 and PM10 concentration series in Kallio and Vallila stations in Helsinki and

  6. Inharmonic music elicits more negative affect and interferes more with a concurrent cognitive task than does harmonic music.

    PubMed

    Bonin, Tanor; Smilek, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    We evaluated whether task-irrelevant inharmonic music produces greater interference with cognitive performance than task-irrelevant harmonic music. Participants completed either an auditory (Experiment 1) or a visual (Experiment 2) version of the cognitively demanding 2-back task in which they were required to categorize each digit in a sequence of digits as either being a target (a digit also presented two positions earlier in the sequence) or a distractor (all other items). They were concurrently exposed to either task-irrelevant harmonic music (judged to be consonant), task-irrelevant inharmonic music (judged to be dissonant), or no music at all as a distraction. The main finding across both experiments was that performance on the 2-back task was worse when participants were exposed to inharmonic music than when they were exposed to harmonic music. Interestingly, performance on the 2-back task was generally the same regardless of whether harmonic music or no music was played. We suggest that inharmonic, dissonant music interferes with cognitive performance by requiring greater cognitive processing than harmonic, consonant music, and speculate about why this might be. PMID:26715513

  7. The Persistence of Experience: Prior Attentional and Emotional State Affects Network Functioning in a Target Detection Task.

    PubMed

    Stern, Emily R; Muratore, Alexandra F; Taylor, Stephan F; Abelson, James L; Hof, Patrick R; Goodman, Wayne K

    2015-09-01

    Efficient, adaptive behavior relies on the ability to flexibly move between internally focused (IF) and externally focused (EF) attentional states. Despite evidence that IF cognitive processes such as event imagination comprise a significant amount of awake cognition, the consequences of internal absorption on the subsequent recruitment of brain networks during EF tasks are unknown. The present functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study employed a novel attentional state switching task. Subjects imagined positive and negative events (IF task) or performed a working memory task (EF task) before switching to a target detection (TD) task also requiring attention to external information, allowing for the investigation of neural functioning during external attention based on prior attentional state. There was a robust increase of activity in frontal, parietal, and temporal regions during TD when subjects were previously performing the EF compared with IF task, an effect that was most pronounced following negative IF. Additionally, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex was less negatively coupled with ventromedial prefrontal and posterior cingulate cortices during TD following IF compared with EF. These findings reveal the striking consequences for brain activity following immersion in an IF attentional state, which have strong implications for psychiatric disorders characterized by excessive internal focus. PMID:24904075

  8. Contingency learning is not affected by conflict experience: Evidence from a task conflict-free, item-specific Stroop paradigm.

    PubMed

    Levin, Yulia; Tzelgov, Joseph

    2016-02-01

    A contingency learning account of the item-specific proportion congruent effect has been described as an associative stimulus-response learning process that has nothing to do with controlling the Stroop conflict. As supportive evidence, contingency learning has been demonstrated with response conflict-free stimuli, such as neutral words. However, what gives rise to response conflict and to Stroop interference in general is task conflict. The present study investigated whether task conflict can constitute a trigger or, alternatively, a booster to the contingency learning process. This was done by employing a "task conflict-free" condition (i.e., geometric shapes) and comparing it with a "task conflict" condition (i.e., neutral words). The results showed a significant contingency learning effect in both conditions, refuting the possibility that contingency learning is triggered by the presence of a task conflict. Contingency learning was also not enhanced by the task conflict experience, indicating its complete insensitivity to Stroop conflict(s). Thus, the results showed no evidence that performance optimization as a result of contingency learning is greater under conflict, implying that contingency learning is not recruited to assist the control system to overcome conflict. PMID:26720099

  9. Do frailty and cognitive impairment affect dual-task cost during walking in the oldest old institutionalized patients?

    PubMed

    Cadore, Eduardo L; Casas-Herrero, Alvaro; Zambom-Ferraresi, Fabricio; Martínez-Ramírez, Alicia; Millor, Nora; Gómez, Marisol; Moneo, Ana B Bays; Izquierdo, Mikel

    2015-12-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate dual-task costs in several elderly populations, including robust oldest old, frail oldest old with MCI, frail oldest old without MCI, and frail elderly with dementia. Sixty-four elderly men and women categorized into frail without MCI (age 93.4 ± 3.2 years, n = 20), frail with MCI (age 92.4 ± 4.2 years, n = 13), robust (age 88.2 ± 4.1 years, n = 10), and patients with dementia (age 88.1 ± 5.1 years, n = 21). Five-meter gait ability and timed-up-and-go (TUG) tests with single and dual-task performance were assessed in the groups. Dual-task cost in both 5-m habitual gait velocity test and TUG test was calculated by the time differences between single and dual-task performance. The robust group exhibited better 5-m gait and TUG test performances in the single and dual-task conditions compared with the other three groups (P < 0.001), and the frail and frail + MCI groups exhibited better performances than the dementia group (P < 0.001). No significant differences were observed between the frail and frail + MCI groups. However, all groups exhibited lower gait velocities in the verbal and arithmetic task conditions, but the dual-task cost of the groups were similar. Robust individuals exhibited superior single and dual-task walking performances than the other three groups, and the frail and frail + MCI individuals exhibited performances that were superior to those of the patients with dementia. However, the dual-task costs, i.e., the changes in gait performance when elderly participants switch from a single to a dual task, were similar among all four of the investigated groups. Therefore, these results demonstrated that the magnitude of the impairment in gait pattern is independent of frailty and cognitive impairment status. PMID:26667940

  10. Interim report of the interagency coal export task force: draft for public comment. [Trade by country 1960-1979; general forecasting to 1985, 1990 and 2000

    SciTech Connect

    1981-01-01

    The Interagency Coal Export Task Force was formed in the Spring of 1980 at the direction of the President, in support of the international efforts of the United States, encouraging the use of coal. Its purpose was to report on possible courses of action to increase United States steam coal exports in a manner consistent with other national policies, including our commitment to environmental protection. The Task Force assembled existing data, developed significant new information regarding the international coal market and undertook analyses of apparent problems underlying coal exports. The Task Force contributed to a public awareness of the fact that increased coal exports will serve both the domestic and international interests of the United States. Based upon extensive, independent field studies in Europe and the Far East, the Task Force concludes that there will be significant growth in world demand for steam coal. Such growth has already begun, has contributed to the almost seven-fold increase in United States overseas steam coal exports for 1990 over 1979, and is expected to continue beyond the end of this century. The growth in world steam coal trade projected in the report does not guarantee United States coal exporters a large or expanding share of the market. The United States' role depends on the buying strategies of the consuming countries, the policies and prices of competing exporters, and the actions taken by the United States to maintain reasonable prices, prompt delivery and dependable quality. Projections of United States steam coal exports, therefore, rest upon a number of highly uncertain factors which are discussed in some detail.

  11. How Does Processing Affect Storage in Working Memory Tasks? Evidence for Both Domain-General and Domain-Specific Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jarrold, Christopher; Tam, Helen; Baddeley, Alan D.; Harvey, Caroline E.

    2011-01-01

    Two studies that examine whether the forgetting caused by the processing demands of working memory tasks is domain-general or domain-specific are presented. In each, separate groups of adult participants were asked to carry out either verbal or nonverbal operations on exactly the same processing materials while maintaining verbal storage items.…

  12. Continuous Theta Burst Stimulation (cTBS) on Left Cerebellar Hemisphere Affects Mental Rotation Tasks during Music Listening

    PubMed Central

    Picazio, Silvia; Oliveri, Massimiliano; Koch, Giacomo; Caltagirone, Carlo; Petrosini, Laura

    2013-01-01

    Converging evidence suggests an association between spatial and music domains. A cerebellar role in music-related information processing as well as in spatial-temporal tasks has been documented. Here, we investigated the cerebellar role in the association between spatial and musical domains, by testing performances in embodied (EMR) or abstract (AMR) mental rotation tasks of subjects listening Mozart Sonata K.448, which is reported to improve spatial-temporal reasoning, in the presence or in the absence of continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS) of the left cerebellar hemisphere. In the absence of cerebellar cTBS, music listening did not influence either MR task, thus not revealing a “Mozart Effect”. Cerebellar cTBS applied before musical listening made subjects faster (P = 0.005) and less accurate (P = 0.005) in performing the EMR but not the AMR task. Thus, cerebellar inhibition by TBS unmasked the effect of musical listening on motor imagery. These data support a coupling between music listening and sensory-motor integration in cerebellar networks for embodied representations. PMID:23724071

  13. Learning task affects ERP-correlates of the own-race bias, but not recognition memory performance.

    PubMed

    Stahl, Johanna; Wiese, Holger; Schweinberger, Stefan R

    2010-06-01

    People are generally better in recognizing faces from their own ethnic group as opposed to faces from another ethnic group, a finding which has been interpreted in the context of two opposing theories. Whereas perceptual expertise theories stress the role of long-term experience with one's own ethnic group, race feature theories assume that the processing of an other-race-defining feature triggers inferior coding and recognition of faces. The present study tested these hypotheses by manipulating the learning task in a recognition memory test. At learning, one group of participants categorized faces according to ethnicity, whereas another group rated facial attractiveness. Subsequent recognition tests indicated clear and similar own-race biases for both groups. However, ERPs from learning and test phases demonstrated an influence of learning task on neurophysiological processing of own- and other-race faces. While both groups exhibited larger N170 responses to Asian as compared to Caucasian faces, task-dependent differences were seen in a subsequent P2 ERP component. Whereas the P2 was more pronounced for Caucasian faces in the categorization group, this difference was absent in the attractiveness rating group. The learning task thus influences early face encoding. Moreover, comparison with recent research suggests that this attractiveness rating task influences the processes reflected in the P2 in a similar manner as perceptual expertise for other-race faces does. By contrast, the behavioural own-race bias suggests that long-term expertise is required to increase other-race face recognition and hence attenuate the own-race bias. PMID:20362599

  14. Can stereotype threat affect motor performance in the absence of explicit monitoring processes? Evidence using a strength task.

    PubMed

    Chalabaev, Aïna; Brisswalter, Jeanick; Radel, Rémi; Coombes, Stephen A; Easthope, Christopher; Clément-Guillotin, Corentin

    2013-04-01

    Previous evidence shows that stereotype threat impairs complex motor skills through increased conscious monitoring of task performance. Given that one-step motor skills may not be susceptible to these processes, we examined whether performance on a simple strength task may be reduced under stereotype threat. Forty females and males performed maximum voluntary contractions under stereotypical or nullified-stereotype conditions. Results showed that the velocity of force production within the first milliseconds of the contraction decreased in females when the negative stereotype was induced, whereas maximal force did not change. In males, the stereotype induction only increased maximal force. These findings suggest that stereotype threat may impair motor skills in the absence of explicit monitoring processes, by influencing the planning stage of force production. PMID:23535978

  15. Fishing Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    ROFFS stands for Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. Roffer combines satellite and computer technology with oceanographic information from several sources to produce frequently updated charts sometimes as often as 30 times a day showing clues to the location of marlin, sailfish, tuna, swordfish and a variety of other types. Also provides customized forecasts for racing boats and the shipping industry along with seasonal forecasts that allow the marine industry to formulate fishing strategies based on foreknowledge of the arrival and departure times of different fish. Roffs service exemplifies the potential for benefits to marine industries from satellite observations. Most notable results are reduced search time and substantial fuel savings.

  16. Young Children’s Affective Responses to Acceptance and Rejection From Peers: A Computer-based Task Sensitive to Variation in Temperamental Shyness and Gender

    PubMed Central

    Howarth, Grace Z.; Guyer, Amanda E.; Pérez-Edgar, Koraly

    2013-01-01

    This study presents a novel task examining young children’s affective responses to evaluative feedback—specifically, social acceptance and rejection—from peers. We aimed to determine (1) whether young children report their affective responses to hypothetical peer evaluation predictably and consistently, and (2) whether young children’s responses to peer evaluation vary as a function of temperamental shyness and gender. Four- to seven-year-old children (N = 48) sorted pictures of unknown, similar-aged children into those with whom they wished or did not wish to play. Computerized peer evaluation later noted whether the pictured children were interested in a future playdate with participants. Participants then rated their affective responses to each acceptance or rejection event. Children were happy when accepted by children with whom they wanted to play, and disappointed when these children rejected them. Highly shy boys showed a wider range of responses to acceptance and rejection based on initial social interest, and may be particularly sensitive to both positive and negative evaluation. Overall, the playdate task captures individual differences in affective responses to evaluative peer feedback and is potentially amenable to future applications in research with young children, including pairings with psychophysiological measures. PMID:23997429

  17. On the possibility of getting economically sound forecasts of rare space weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burov, V. A.

    There is a problem of setting criteria of space weather forecast quality that allows estimation of the economic effectiveness of forecasts in comparison with other methods for real users. The overwhelming majority of such users (airlines, power lines, pipelines, space exploration, navigation, ground-induced currents, medical services, etc.), are primarily interested in large space weather disturbances that affect the operation of their systems. But powerful disturbances happen rather seldom and so the traditional criteria of quality estimation give very little useful information for an estimate of economic effectiveness of the forecast. This work proposes a specially constructed value “A” for every customer (task) and for each method (or kind) of the forecast, which allows the estimation of the comparative economic effectiveness. Special attention is paid to the statistical significance in reference to the cyclic nature of the solar activity, and there are also indicated some numeral limits, which have to be considered during such a check.

  18. How does processing affect storage in working memory tasks? Evidence for both domain-general and domain-specific effects.

    PubMed

    Jarrold, Christopher; Tam, Helen; Baddeley, Alan D; Harvey, Caroline E

    2011-05-01

    Two studies that examine whether the forgetting caused by the processing demands of working memory tasks is domain-general or domain-specific are presented. In each, separate groups of adult participants were asked to carry out either verbal or nonverbal operations on exactly the same processing materials while maintaining verbal storage items. The imposition of verbal processing tended to produce greater forgetting even though verbal processing operations took no longer to complete than did nonverbal processing operations. However, nonverbal processing did cause forgetting relative to baseline control conditions, and evidence from the timing of individuals' processing responses suggests that individuals in both processing groups slowed their responses in order to "refresh" the memoranda. Taken together the data suggest that processing has a domain-general effect on working memory performance by impeding refreshment of memoranda but can also cause effects that appear domain-specific and that result from either blocking of rehearsal or interference. PMID:21319919

  19. Testing the connection of the mirror system and speech: how articulation affects imitation in a simple response task.

    PubMed

    Kühn, Simone; Brass, Marcel

    2008-04-01

    There seems to be a close connection between speech and action, which we experience almost daily when we try to support our verbal expressions with gestures. Recently, the assumption that the language system and the action system are intimately linked has received support from brain imaging research showing that imitation and language production involve the same cortical structure, namely Broca's area. However, if the assumption of a functional interdependency holds true, one would predict that language production and imitation should interact on the behavioural level. We have tested this assumption in a series of experiments in which we investigated the influence of an articulation task on imitation. Here we show that articulation has a specific influence on the imitation of finger movements when compared to a non-imitative stimulus-response (S-R) association. These findings provide strong experimental support for the assumption that language production and imitation share common functional mechanisms. PMID:18289617

  20. Do task-irrelevant direction-associated motion verbs affect action planning? Evidence from a Stroop paradigm.

    PubMed

    Dudschig, Carolin; Lachmair, Martin; de la Vega, Irmgard; De Filippis, Monica; Kaup, Barbara

    2012-10-01

    Does simply seeing a word such as rise activate upward responses? The present study is concerned with bottom-up activation of motion-related experiential traces. Verbs referring to an upward or downward motion (e.g., rise/fall) were presented in one of four colors. Participants had to perform an upward or downward hand movement (experiments 1 and 2a/2b) or a stationary up or down located keypress response (experiment 3) according to font color. In all experiments, responding was faster if the word's immanent motion direction matched the response (e.g., upward/up response in case of rise); however, this effect was strongest in the experiments requiring an actual upward or downward response movement (experiments 1 and 2a/2b). These findings suggest bottom-up activation of motion-related experiential traces, even if the task does not demand lexical access or focusing on a word's meaning. PMID:22427242

  1. Improving operational plume forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2012-04-01

    Forecasting how plumes of particles, such as radioactive particles from a nuclear disaster, will be transported and dispersed in the atmosphere is an important but computationally challenging task. During the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, operational plume forecasts were produced each day, but as the emissions continued, previous emissions were not included in the simulations used for forecasts because it became impractical to rerun the simulations each day from the beginning of the accident. Draxler and Rolph examine whether it is possible to improve plume simulation speed and flexibility as conditions and input data change. The authors use a method known as a transfer coefficient matrix approach that allows them to simulate many radionuclides using only a few generic species for the computation. Their simulations work faster by dividing the computation into separate independent segments in such a way that the most computationally time consuming pieces of the calculation need to be done only once. This makes it possible to provide real-time operational plume forecasts by continuously updating the previous simulations as new data become available. They tested their method using data from the Fukushima incident to show that it performed well. (Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2011JD017205, 2012)

  2. Tablet Keyboard Configuration Affects Performance, Discomfort and Task Difficulty for Thumb Typing in a Two-Handed Grip.

    PubMed

    Trudeau, Matthieu B; Catalano, Paul J; Jindrich, Devin L; Dennerlein, Jack T

    2013-01-01

    When holding a tablet computer with two hands, the touch keyboard configuration imposes postural constraints on the user because of the need to simultaneously hold the device and type with the thumbs. Designers have provided users with several possible keyboard configurations (device orientation, keyboard layout and location). However, potential differences in performance, usability and postures among these configurations have not been explored. We hypothesize that (1) the narrower standard keyboard layout in the portrait orientation leads to lower self-reported discomfort and less reach than the landscape orientation; (2) a split keyboard layout results in better overall outcomes compared to the standard layout; and (3) the conventional bottom keyboard location leads to the best outcomes overall compared to other locations. A repeated measures laboratory experiment of 12 tablet owners measured typing speed, discomfort, task difficulty, and thumb/wrist joint postures using an active marker system during typing tasks for different combinations of device orientation (portrait and landscape), keyboard layout (standard and split), and keyboard location (bottom, middle, top). The narrower standard keyboard with the device in the portrait orientation was associated with less discomfort (least squares mean (and S.E.) 2.9±0.6) than the landscape orientation (4.5±0.7). Additionally, the split keyboard decreased the amount of reaching required by the thumb in the landscape orientation as defined by a reduced range of motion and less MCP extension, which may have led to reduced discomfort (2.7±0.6) compared to the standard layout (4.5±0.7). However, typing speed was greater for the standard layout (127±5 char./min.) compared to the split layout (113±4 char./min.) regardless of device orientation and keyboard location. Usage guidelines and designers can incorporate these findings to optimize keyboard design parameters and form factors that promote user performance and

  3. Tablet Keyboard Configuration Affects Performance, Discomfort and Task Difficulty for Thumb Typing in a Two-Handed Grip

    PubMed Central

    Trudeau, Matthieu B.; Catalano, Paul J.; Jindrich, Devin L.; Dennerlein, Jack T.

    2013-01-01

    When holding a tablet computer with two hands, the touch keyboard configuration imposes postural constraints on the user because of the need to simultaneously hold the device and type with the thumbs. Designers have provided users with several possible keyboard configurations (device orientation, keyboard layout and location). However, potential differences in performance, usability and postures among these configurations have not been explored. We hypothesize that (1) the narrower standard keyboard layout in the portrait orientation leads to lower self-reported discomfort and less reach than the landscape orientation; (2) a split keyboard layout results in better overall outcomes compared to the standard layout; and (3) the conventional bottom keyboard location leads to the best outcomes overall compared to other locations. A repeated measures laboratory experiment of 12 tablet owners measured typing speed, discomfort, task difficulty, and thumb/wrist joint postures using an active marker system during typing tasks for different combinations of device orientation (portrait and landscape), keyboard layout (standard and split), and keyboard location (bottom, middle, top). The narrower standard keyboard with the device in the portrait orientation was associated with less discomfort (least squares mean (and S.E.) 2.9±0.6) than the landscape orientation (4.5±0.7). Additionally, the split keyboard decreased the amount of reaching required by the thumb in the landscape orientation as defined by a reduced range of motion and less MCP extension, which may have led to reduced discomfort (2.7±0.6) compared to the standard layout (4.5±0.7). However, typing speed was greater for the standard layout (127±5 char./min.) compared to the split layout (113±4 char./min.) regardless of device orientation and keyboard location. Usage guidelines and designers can incorporate these findings to optimize keyboard design parameters and form factors that promote user performance and

  4. Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task

    PubMed Central

    O’Brien, Megan K.

    2014-01-01

    Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing) and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform). We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat. PMID:25083345

  5. Ageing affects event-related potentials and brain oscillations: a behavioral and electrophysiological study using a haptic recognition memory task.

    PubMed

    Sebastián, Manuel; Reales, José M; Ballesteros, Soledad

    2011-12-01

    In this electrophysiological study, we investigated the effects of ageing on recognition memory for three-dimensional (3D) familiar objects presented to touch in a continuous paradigm. To examine changes in event-related potentials (ERPs) and brain oscillations, we recorded the EEGs of healthy groups of young (n=14; mean age=32.3 years) and older adults (n=14; mean age=65.1). Both age groups exhibited similar accuracy and exploration times when making old-new judgments. Young and older participants showed a marginally significant ERP old/new effect widely distributed over the scalp between 550-750 ms. In addition, the elders showed lower amplitude than younger participants within 1200-1500 ms. There were age-related differences in brain oscillations as measured by event-related spectral perturbation (ERSP). Older adults showed greater alpha and beta power reductions than young participants, suggesting the recruitment of additional neural resources. In contrast, the two age groups showed a reliable old/new effect in the theta band that temporarily overlapped the ERP old/new effect. The present results suggest that despite similar behavioral performance, the young and older adults recruited different neural resources to perform a haptic recognition task. PMID:22027172

  6. Target enhancement and distractor inhibition affect transitory surround suppression in dual tasks using multiple rapid serial visual presentation streams.

    PubMed

    Wu, Xia; Greenwood, Pamela; Fu, Shimin

    2016-09-01

    Few studies have investigated the interaction between temporal and spatial dimensions on selective attention using dual tasks in the multiple rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) paradigm. A phenomenon that the surround suppression in space changes over time (termed transitory surround suppression, TSS, in the present study) has been observed, suggesting the existence of this time-space interaction. However, it is still unclear whether target enhancement or distractor inhibition modulates TSS. Four behavioural experiments were conducted to investigate the mechanism of TSS by manipulating the temporal lag and spatial distance factors between two targets embedded in six RSVP streams. The TSS effect was replicated in a study that eliminated confounds of perceptual effects and attentional switch (Experiment 1). However, the TSS disappeared when two targets shared the same colour in a between-subjects design (Experiment 2a) and a within-subject design (Experiment 2b), suggesting the impact of target enhancement on TSS. Moreover, the TSS was larger for within-category than for between-category distractors (Experiment 3), indicating the impact of distractor inhibition on TSS. These two influences on TSS under different processing demands of target and distractor processing were further confirmed in a skeletal design (Experiment 4). Overall, combinative effects of target enhancement and distractor suppression contribute to the mechanisms of time-space interaction in selective attention during visual search. PMID:26447933

  7. Side effects of fast-acting dynamic range compression that affect intelligibility in a competing speech task

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, Michael A.; Moore, Brian C. J.

    2004-10-01

    Using a cochlear implant simulator, Stone and Moore [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 114, 1023-1034 (2003)] reported that wideband fast-acting compression led to poorer intelligibility than slow-acting compression in a competing speech task. Compression speed was varied by using different pairs of attack and release times. In the first experiment reported here, it is shown that attack times less than about 2 ms in a wideband compressor are deleterious to intelligibility. In experiment 2, fast wideband compression was applied to the target and background either before or after mixing. The former reduced the modulation depth of each signal but maintained the independence between the two signals, while the latter introduced ``comodulation.'' Using simulations with 6 and 11 channels, intelligibility was higher when compression was applied before mixing. In experiment 3, wideband compression was compared with multichannel compression; the latter led to reduced comodulation effects. For 6 channels, the position of the compressor, either wideband or within each channel, had no effect on intelligibility. For 11 channels, channel compression severely degraded intelligibility compared to wideband compression, presumably because of the greater reduction of across-channel contrasts. Overall, caution appears necessary in the use of fast-acting compression in cochlear implants, so as to preserve intelligibility. .

  8. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  9. NF-kappaB activity affects learning in aversive tasks: possible actions via modulation of the stress axis.

    PubMed

    Lehmann, Michael L; Brachman, Rebecca A; Listwak, Samuel J; Herkenham, Miles

    2010-08-01

    The role of altered activity of nuclear factor kappaB (NF-kappaB) in specific aspects of motivated behavior and learning and memory was examined in mice lacking the p50 subunit of the NF-kappaB/rel transcription factor family. Nfkb1-deficient mice are unable to produce p50 and show specific susceptibilities to infections and inflammatory challenges, but the behavioral phenotype of such mice has been largely unexamined, owing in large part to the lack of understanding of the role of NF-kappaB in nervous system function. Here we show that Nfkb1 (p50) knockout mice more rapidly learned to find the hidden platform in the Morris water maze than did wildtype mice. The rise in plasma corticosterone levels after the maze test was greater in p50 knockout than in wildtype mice. In the less stressful Barnes maze, which tests similar kinds of spatial learning, the p50 knockout mice performed similarly to control mice. Adrenalectomy with corticosterone replacement eliminated the differences between p50 knockout and wildtype mice in the water maze. Knockout mice showed increased levels of basal anxiety in the open-field and light/dark box tests, suggesting that their enhanced escape latency in the water maze was due to activation of the stress (hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal) axis leading to elevated corticosterone production by strongly but not mildly anxiogenic stimuli. The results suggest that, as in the immune system, p50 in the nervous system normally serves to dampen NF-kappaB-mediated intracellular activities, which are manifested physiologically through elevated stress responses to aversive stimuli and behaviorally in the facilitated escape performance in learning tasks. PMID:20399847

  10. Forecasting Future Social Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abt, Clark C.

    1971-01-01

    Describes briefly why social forecasting is easier than technological forecasting, offers four approaches to social forecasting (judgment, extrapolation, speculation, analysis), and suggests a procedure recommended for social forecasting. (CJ)

  11. Why Don't We Learn to Accurately Forecast Feelings? How Misremembering Our Predictions Blinds Us to Past Forecasting Errors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyvis, Tom; Ratner, Rebecca K.; Levav, Jonathan

    2010-01-01

    Why do affective forecasting errors persist in the face of repeated disconfirming evidence? Five studies demonstrate that people misremember their forecasts as consistent with their experience and thus fail to perceive the extent of their forecasting error. As a result, people do not learn from past forecasting errors and fail to adjust subsequent…

  12. Task-Based and Questionnaire Measures of Inhibitory Control Are Differentially Affected by Acute Food Restriction and by Motivationally Salient Food Stimuli in Healthy Adults.

    PubMed

    Bartholdy, Savani; Cheng, Jiumu; Schmidt, Ulrike; Campbell, Iain C; O'Daly, Owen G

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive eating behaviors are dependent on an interaction between motivational states (e.g., hunger) and the ability to control one's own behavior (inhibitory control). Indeed, behavioral paradigms are emerging that seek to train inhibitory control to improve eating behavior. However, inhibitory control is a multifaceted concept, and it is not yet clear how different types (e.g., reactive motor inhibition, proactive motor inhibition, reward-related inhibition) are affected by hunger. Such knowledge will provide insight into the contexts in which behavioral training paradigms would be most effective. The present study explored the impact of promoting a "need" state (hunger) together with motivationally salient distracting stimuli (food/non-food images) on inhibitory control in 46 healthy adults. Participants attended two study sessions, once after eating breakfast as usual and once after acute food restriction on the morning of the session. In each session, participants completed questionnaires on hunger, mood and inhibitory control, and undertook task-based measures of inhibitory control, and had physiological measurements (height, weight, and blood glucose) obtained by a researcher. Acute food restriction influenced task-based assessments but not questionnaire measures of inhibitory control, suggesting that hunger affects observable behavioral control but not self-reported inhibitory control. After acute food restriction, participants showed greater temporal discounting (devaluation of future rewards), and subjective hunger and these were inversely correlated with stop accuracy on the stop signal task. Finally, participants generally responded faster when food-related distractor images were presented, compared to non-food images, independent of state. This suggests that although food stimuli motivate approach behavior, stimulus relevance does not impact inhibitory control in healthy individuals, nor interact with motivational state. These findings may provide some

  13. Task-Based and Questionnaire Measures of Inhibitory Control Are Differentially Affected by Acute Food Restriction and by Motivationally Salient Food Stimuli in Healthy Adults

    PubMed Central

    Bartholdy, Savani; Cheng, Jiumu; Schmidt, Ulrike; Campbell, Iain C.; O'Daly, Owen G.

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive eating behaviors are dependent on an interaction between motivational states (e.g., hunger) and the ability to control one's own behavior (inhibitory control). Indeed, behavioral paradigms are emerging that seek to train inhibitory control to improve eating behavior. However, inhibitory control is a multifaceted concept, and it is not yet clear how different types (e.g., reactive motor inhibition, proactive motor inhibition, reward-related inhibition) are affected by hunger. Such knowledge will provide insight into the contexts in which behavioral training paradigms would be most effective. The present study explored the impact of promoting a “need” state (hunger) together with motivationally salient distracting stimuli (food/non-food images) on inhibitory control in 46 healthy adults. Participants attended two study sessions, once after eating breakfast as usual and once after acute food restriction on the morning of the session. In each session, participants completed questionnaires on hunger, mood and inhibitory control, and undertook task-based measures of inhibitory control, and had physiological measurements (height, weight, and blood glucose) obtained by a researcher. Acute food restriction influenced task-based assessments but not questionnaire measures of inhibitory control, suggesting that hunger affects observable behavioral control but not self-reported inhibitory control. After acute food restriction, participants showed greater temporal discounting (devaluation of future rewards), and subjective hunger and these were inversely correlated with stop accuracy on the stop signal task. Finally, participants generally responded faster when food-related distractor images were presented, compared to non-food images, independent of state. This suggests that although food stimuli motivate approach behavior, stimulus relevance does not impact inhibitory control in healthy individuals, nor interact with motivational state. These findings may provide

  14. Reasonable Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Kelley R.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for clothing or…

  15. The effect of facial blood flow on ratings of blushing and negative affect during an embarrassing task: preliminary findings.

    PubMed

    Drummond, Peter D; Lazaroo, Daniel

    2012-03-01

    Expecting to blush is a common source of social anxiety, and is associated with heightened perceptions of blushing and embarrassment. To assess whether sensory cues associated with heightened facial blood flow are an additional source of anxiety, the vasodilator niacin (100mg) or placebo was administered double-blind to 33 participants, and facial blood flow was investigated when they sang a children's song. Vasodilatation during singing was greater in the niacin than placebo condition, and niacin-evoked flushing and increases in pulse rate were greater in participants with high than low fear of negative evaluation. Nevertheless, ratings of embarrassment, anxiety, blushing and facial heat were similar in both drug conditions. This dissociation implies that cognitive appraisals or negative affect overrode more subtle physiological cues of blushing during embarrassment. Clarifying how judgments about blushing are made could be crucial for correcting faulty assumptions about blushing in people who are frightened of this response. PMID:22257642

  16. Healthy co-twins of patients with affective disorders show reduced risk-related activation of the insula during a monetary gambling task

    PubMed Central

    Macoveanu, Julian; Miskowiak, Kamilla; Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vinberg, Maj; Siebner, Hartwig Roman

    2016-01-01

    Background Healthy first-degree relatives of patients with affective disorders are at increased risk for affective disorders and express discrete structural and functional abnormalities in the brain reward system. However, value-based decision making is not well understood in these at-risk individuals. Methods We investigated healthy monozygotic and dizygotic twins with or without a co-twin history of affective disorders (high-risk and low-risk groups, respectively) using functional MRI during a gambling task. We assessed group differences in activity related to gambling risk over the entire brain. Results We included 30 monozygotic and 37 dizygotic twins in our analysis. Neural activity in the anterior insula and ventral striatum increased linearly with the amount of gambling risk in the entire cohort. Individual neuroticism scores were positively correlated with the neural response in the ventral striatum to increasing gambling risk and negatively correlated with individual risk-taking behaviour. Compared with low-risk twins, the high-risk twins showed a bilateral reduction of risk-related activity in the middle insula extending into the temporal cortex with increasing gambling risk. Post hoc analyses revealed that this effect was strongest in dizygotic twins. Limitations The relatively old average age of the mono- and dizygotic twin cohort (49.2 yr) may indicate an increased resilience to affective disorders. The size of the monozygotic high-risk group was relatively small (n = 13). Conclusion The reduced processing of risk magnitude in the middle insula may indicate a deficient integration of exteroceptive information related to risk-related cues with interoceptive states in individuals at familial risk for affective disorders. Impaired risk processing might contribute to increased vulnerability to affective disorders. PMID:26395812

  17. Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karolak, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

  18. Forecaster's dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lerch, Sebastian; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Gneiting, Tilmann

    2015-04-01

    In discussions of the quality of forecasts in the media and public, attention often focuses on the predictive performance in the case of extreme events. Intuitively, accurate predictions on the subset of extreme events seem to suggest better predictive ability. However, it can be demonstrated that restricting conventional forecast verification methods to subsets of observations might have unexpected and undesired effects and may discredit even the most skillful forecasters. Hand-picking extreme events is incompatible with the theoretical assumptions of established forecast verification methods, thus confronting forecasters with what we refer to as the forecaster's dilemma. For probabilistic forecasts, weighted proper scoring rules provide suitable alternatives for forecast evaluation with an emphasis on extreme events. Using theoretical arguments, simulation experiments and a case study on probabilistic forecasts of wind speed over Germany, we illustrate the forecaster's dilemma and the use of weighted proper scoring rules.

  19. Mechanical objects and the engineering learner: An experimental study of how the presence of objects affects students' performance on engineering related tasks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bairaktarova, Diana N.

    People display varying levels of interaction with the mechanical objects in their environment; engineers in particular as makers and users of these objects display a higher level of interaction with them. Investigating the educational potential of mechanical objects in stimulating and supporting learning in engineering is warranted by the fact that practicing engineers work with mechanical objects as they design, test and improve devices. It is possible that mechanical objects can facilitate learning by providing opportunities to authenticate the teaching and learning experience. More importantly, mechanical objects can serve as an instrument in transferring the knowledge of abstract concepts to practical applications. What remains unclear is how individual differences in interests and aptitudes are related to these interactions in engineering students. This study investigated how individual differences related to thing orientation and mechanical aptitude affect interaction with mechanical objects in engineering education instruction. The study introduces a task designed to replicate a real-world engineering application and uses this task to examine the effect of these aptitudes, interests, and direct manipulation of mechanical objects on performance.

  20. Oral intake of γ-aminobutyric acid affects mood and activities of central nervous system during stressed condition induced by mental tasks.

    PubMed

    Yoto, A; Murao, S; Motoki, M; Yokoyama, Y; Horie, N; Takeshima, K; Masuda, K; Kim, M; Yokogoshi, H

    2012-09-01

    γ-Aminobutyric acid (GABA) is a kind of amino acid contained in green tea leaves and other foods. Several reports have shown that GABA might affect brain protein synthesis, improve many brain functions such as memory and study capability, lower the blood pressure of spontaneously hypertensive rats, and may also have a relaxation effect in humans. However, the evidence for its mood-improving function is still not sufficient. In this study, we investigated how the oral intake of GABA influences human adults psychologically and physiologically under a condition of mental stress. Sixty-three adults (28 males, 35 females) participated in a randomized, single blind, placebo-controlled, crossover-designed study over two experiment days. Capsules containing 100 mg of GABA or dextrin as a placebo were used as test samples. The results showed that EEG activities including alpha band and beta band brain waves decreased depending on the mental stress task loads, and the condition of 30 min after GABA intake diminished this decrease compared with the placebo condition. That is to say, GABA might have alleviated the stress induced by the mental tasks. This effect also corresponded with the results of the POMS scores. PMID:22203366

  1. Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic models of infectious disease systems abound and are used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms affecting transmission, and the suitability of various control and intervention strategies. The dynamics of disease transmission are non-linear and consequently difficult to forecast. Here, we describe combined model-inference frameworks developed for the prediction of infectious diseases. We show that accurate and reliable predictions of seasonal influenza outbreaks can be made using a mathematical model representing population-level influenza transmission dynamics that has been recursively optimized using ensemble data assimilation techniques and real-time estimates of influenza incidence. Operational real-time forecasts of influenza and other infectious diseases have been and are currently being generated.

  2. Forecast Mekong

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    Forecast Mekong is part of the U.S. Department of State's Lower Mekong Initiative, which was launched in 2009 by Secretary Hillary Clinton and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam to enhance partnerships between the U.S. and the Lower Mekong River countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working in close cooperation with the U.S. Department of State to use research and data from the Lower Mekong Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decision makers in Lower Mekong River countries in the planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the basin.

  3. Task Importance Affects Event-based Prospective Memory Performance in Adults with HIV-Associated Neurocognitive Disorders and HIV-infected Young Adults with Problematic Substance Use

    PubMed Central

    Woods, Steven Paul; Doyle, Katie L.; Morgan, Erin E.; Naar-King, Sylvie; Outlaw, Angulique Y.; Nichols, Sharon L.; Loft, Shayne

    2014-01-01

    Objective Two experiments were conducted to examine the effects of task importance on event-based prospective memory (PM) in separate samples of adults with HIV-associated Neurocognitive Disorders (HAND) and HIV-infected young adults with Substance Use Disorders (SUD). Method All participants completed three conditions of an ongoing lexical decision task: 1) without PM task requirements; 2) with PM task requirements that emphasized the importance of the ongoing task; and 3) with PM task requirements that emphasized the importance of the PM task. Results In both experiments, all HIV+ groups showed the expected increase in response costs to the ongoing task when the PM task’s importance was emphasized. In Experiment 1, individuals with HAND showed significantly lower PM accuracy as compared to HIV+ subjects without HAND when the importance of the ongoing task was emphasized, but improved significantly and no longer differed from HIV+ subjects without HAND when the PM task was emphasized. A similar pattern of findings emerged in Experiment 2, whereby HIV+ young adults with SUD (especially cannabis) showed significant improvements in PM accuracy when the PM task was emphasized. Conclusions Findings suggest that both HAND and SUD may increase the amount of cognitive attentional resources that need to be allocated to support PM performance in persons living with HIV infection. PMID:24834469

  4. Task Switching in a Hierarchical Task Structure: Evidence for the Fragility of the Task Repetition Benefit

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lien, Mei-Ching; Ruthruff, Eric

    2004-01-01

    This study examined how task switching is affected by hierarchical task organization. Traditional task-switching studies, which use a constant temporal and spatial distance between each task element (defined as a stimulus requiring a response), promote a flat task structure. Using this approach, Experiment 1 revealed a large switch cost of 238 ms.…

  5. The time course of social-emotional processing in early childhood: ERP responses to facial affect and personal familiarity in a Go-Nogo task.

    PubMed

    Todd, Rebecca M; Lewis, Marc D; Meusel, Liesel-Ann; Zelazo, Philip David

    2008-01-31

    To date, little is known about the neural underpinnings of social-emotional processes in young children. The present study investigated the time course of children's ERP responses to facial expression and personal familiarity, and the effect of these variables on ERP measures of effortful attention in a Go-Nogo task. Dense-array EEG was collected from 48 4-6-year-old children who were presented with pictures of their mothers' and strangers' happy and angry faces. ERPs were scored following face presentation and following a subsequent cue signaling a Go or Nogo response. Responses to face presentation showed early perceptual components that were larger following strangers' faces, suggesting facilitated rapid processing of personally important faces. A mid-latency frontocentral negativity was greatest following angry mothers' faces, indicating increased attentional monitoring and/or recognition memory evoked by an angry parent. Finally a right-lateralized late positive component was largest following angry faces, suggesting extended processing of negatively valenced social stimuli in general. Following the Go-Nogo response cue, a right-lateralized mid-latency negativity thought to measure effortful attention was larger in Nogo than Go trials, and following angry than happy faces, possibly reflecting increased effortful control required in those conditions. The present study suggests that overlapping but differentiated networks for both rapid and elaborative processing of important socio-affective information are established by 4-6 years. Moreover, the extended spatial and temporal distribution of components suggests a pattern of response to social stimuli in which more rapid processes may index personal familiarity, whereas temporally extended processes are sensitive to affective valence on both familiar and unfamiliar faces. PMID:18061633

  6. How do video-based demonstration assessment tasks affect problem-solving process, test anxiety, chemistry anxiety and achievement in general chemistry students?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terrell, Rosalind Stephanie

    2001-12-01

    Because paper-and-pencil testing provides limited knowledge about what students know about chemical phenomena, we have developed video-based demonstrations to broaden measurement of student learning. For example, students might be shown a video demonstrating equilibrium shifts. Two methods for viewing equilibrium shifts are changing the concentration of the reactants and changing the temperature of the system. The students are required to combine the data collected from the video and their knowledge of chemistry to determine which way the equilibrium shifts. Video-based demonstrations are important techniques for measuring student learning because they require students to apply conceptual knowledge learned in class to a specific chemical problem. This study explores how video-based demonstration assessment tasks affect problem-solving processes, test anxiety, chemistry anxiety and achievement in general chemistry students. Several instruments were used to determine students' knowledge about chemistry, students' test and chemistry anxiety before and after treatment. Think-aloud interviews were conducted to determine students' problem-solving processes after treatment. The treatment group was compared to a control group and a group watching video demonstrations. After treatment students' anxiety increased and achievement decreased. There were also no significant differences found in students' problem-solving processes following treatment. These negative findings may be attributed to several factors that will be explored in this study.

  7. Can short-term oral fine motor training affect precision of task performance and induce cortical plasticity of the jaw muscles?

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hong; Kumar, Abhishek; Kothari, Mohit; Luo, Xiaoping; Trulsson, Mats; Svensson, Krister G; Svensson, Peter

    2016-07-01

    The aim was to test the hypothesis that short-term oral sensorimotor training of the jaw muscles would increase the precision of task performance and induce neuroplastic changes in the corticomotor pathways, related to the masseter muscle. Fifteen healthy volunteers performed six series with ten trials of an oral sensorimotor task. The task was to manipulate and position a spherical chocolate candy in between the anterior teeth and split it into two equal halves. The precision of the task performance was evaluated by comparing the ratio between the two split halves. A series of "hold-and-split" tasks was also performed before and after the training. The hold force and split force along with the electromyographic (EMG) activity of jaw muscles were recorded. Motor-evoked potentials and cortical motor maps of the right masseter muscle were evoked by transcranial magnetic stimulation. There was a significant effect of series on the precision of the task performance during the short-term oral sensorimotor training (P < 0.002). The hold force during the "hold-and-split" task was significantly lower after training than before the short-term training (P = 0.011). However, there was no change in the split force and the EMG activity of the jaw muscles before and after the training. Further, there was a significant increase in the amplitude of the motor-evoked potentials (P < 0.016) and in the motor cortex map areas (P = 0.033), after the short-term oral sensorimotor training. Therefore, short-term oral sensorimotor task training increased the precision of task performance and induced signs of neuroplastic changes in the corticomotor pathways, related to the masseter muscle. PMID:26914481

  8. Objective Lightning Probability Forecasts for East-Central Florida Airports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crawford, Winfred C.

    2013-01-01

    The forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL, (NWS MLB) identified a need to make more accurate lightning forecasts to help alleviate delays due to thunderstorms in the vicinity of several commercial airports in central Florida at which they are responsible for issuing terminal aerodrome forecasts. Such forecasts would also provide safer ground operations around terminals, and would be of value to Center Weather Service Units serving air traffic controllers in Florida. To improve the forecast, the AMU was tasked to develop an objective lightning probability forecast tool for the airports using data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The resulting forecast tool is similar to that developed by the AMU to support space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for use by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in previous tasks (Lambert and Wheeler 2005, Lambert 2007). The lightning probability forecasts are valid for the time periods and areas needed by the NWS MLB forecasters in the warm season months, defined in this task as May-September.

  9. A study for systematic errors of the GLA forecast model in tropical regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Tsing-Chang; Baker, Wayman E.; Pfaendtner, James; Corrigan, Martin

    1988-01-01

    From the sensitivity studies performed with the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) analysis/forecast system, it was revealed that the forecast errors in the tropics affect the ability to forecast midlatitude weather in some cases. Apparently, the forecast errors occurring in the tropics can propagate to midlatitudes. Therefore, the systematic error analysis of the GLA forecast system becomes a necessary step in improving the model's forecast performance. The major effort of this study is to examine the possible impact of the hydrological-cycle forecast error on dynamical fields in the GLA forecast system.

  10. A Synthesized Heuristic Task Scheduling Algorithm

    PubMed Central

    Dai, Yanyan; Zhang, Xiangli

    2014-01-01

    Aiming at the static task scheduling problems in heterogeneous environment, a heuristic task scheduling algorithm named HCPPEFT is proposed. In task prioritizing phase, there are three levels of priority in the algorithm to choose task. First, the critical tasks have the highest priority, secondly the tasks with longer path to exit task will be selected, and then algorithm will choose tasks with less predecessors to schedule. In resource selection phase, the algorithm is selected task duplication to reduce the interresource communication cost, besides forecasting the impact of an assignment for all children of the current task permits better decisions to be made in selecting resources. The algorithm proposed is compared with STDH, PEFT, and HEFT algorithms through randomly generated graphs and sets of task graphs. The experimental results show that the new algorithm can achieve better scheduling performance. PMID:25254244

  11. Computers and Technological Forecasting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martino, Joseph P.

    1971-01-01

    Forecasting is becoming increasingly automated, thanks in large measure to the computer. It is now possible for a forecaster to submit his data to a computation center and call for the appropriate program. (No knowledge of statistics is required.) (Author)

  12. How to Support a One-Handed Economist: The Role of Modalisation in Economic Forecasting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donohue, James P.

    2006-01-01

    Economic forecasting in the world of international finance confronts economists with challenging cross-cultural writing tasks. Producing forecasts in English which convey confidence and credibility entails an understanding of linguistic conventions which typify the genre. A typical linguistic feature of commercial economic forecasts produced by…

  13. Forecasting Artificial Intelligence Demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wheeler, David R.; Shelley, Charles

    1986-03-01

    Forecasts are major components of the decision analysis process. When accurate, estimates of future economic activity associated with specific courses of action can correctly set corporate strategy in an uncertain environment. When inaccurate, they can lead to bankruptcy. The basic trouble with most forecasts is that they are not made by forecasters.

  14. Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 8, Germany's War on the Soviet Union, 1941-45. II. Some Important Weather Forecasts, 1942-45.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neumann, J.; Flohn, H.

    1988-07-01

    Short- to medium-range weather forecasts were prepared by Soviet meteorologists for the Battle of Stalingrad. These included forecasts for days suitable for massing troops and equipment and for starting the Soviet offensive in November 1942 that resulted in the encirclement of the German 6th Army. Another forecast was connected with the operation of artificial thickening of the ice cover of the Volga River in the Stalingrad area that made it possible to drive tanks from the cast bank to the west bank of the river (width: about 1 km).In January 1943 a German Panzer army had to be withdrawn from the Caucasus. To accelerate the retreat, light elements of that army crossed some 42 km of the ice cover of the Gulf of Taganrog (Sea of Azov). The crossing was authorized after a meteorologist proved his estimate of the ice-cover thickness by landing in a light plane on the ice.In January 1945 weather forecasts played an important role in the major Soviet (2 200 000 troops and 5 000 warplanes) Oder-Vistula offensive. Marshal Koney writes with appreciation of the correct weather forecasts.In the Appendix, considerations that led German meteorologists to formulate a forecast for a minimum of five days of fog or low clouds from the Ardennes to southern England are reviewed. This forecast was used by the German High Command for the start of the Battle of the Bulge in December 1944.

  15. Modelling the Factors that Affect Individuals' Utilisation of Online Learning Systems: An Empirical Study Combining the Task Technology Fit Model with the Theory of Planned Behaviour

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yu, Tai-Kuei; Yu, Tai-Yi

    2010-01-01

    Understanding learners' behaviour, perceptions and influence in terms of learner performance is crucial to predict the use of electronic learning systems. By integrating the task-technology fit (TTF) model and the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), this paper investigates the online learning utilisation of Taiwanese students. This paper provides a…

  16. The Differential Involvement of the Prelimbic and Infralimbic Cortices in Response Conflict Affects Behavioral Flexibility in Rats Trained in a New Automated Strategy-Switching Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oualian, Catherine; Gisquet-Verrier, Pascale

    2010-01-01

    To assess the role of the prelimbic (PL) and infralimbic (IL) cortices in mediating strategy switching, rats were trained in a new automated task in a Y-maze allowing a careful analysis of rats' behavior. In this situation, rats can only use two egocentric (Right, Left) and two visual (Light, Dark) strategies. In the first experiment, rats with…

  17. The Ability of High School Chemistry Students to Solve Computational Problems Requiring Proportional Reasoning as Affected by Item In-Task Variables.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falls, Timothy H.; Voss, Burton

    This research study was conducted to investigate the interactions of specific student aptitudes with their ability to solve chemistry problems of varying structure and information. Fourteen classroom quizzes were validated and a number of in-task variables were identified for analysis. These variables included: the nature of information given…

  18. C/NOFS: a mission to forecast scintillations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de La Beaujardière, O.; the C/NOFS Science Definition Team

    2004-11-01

    This article describes the science to be pursued during the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Mission of the Air Force Research Laboratory. The primary purpose of C/NOFS is to forecast the presence of ionospheric irregularities that adversely impact communication and navigation systems. A satellite, scheduled for launch in May 2005 into a low inclination (13∘), elliptical (˜375×710 km) orbit, is the most significant component of the C/NOFS program. Complementary ground-based measurements are also critical to the success of the mission. C/NOFS science objectives may be organized into three categories: (1) to understand physical processes active in the background ionosphere and thermosphere in which plasma instabilities grow; (2) to identify mechanisms that trigger or quench the plasma irregularities responsible for signal degradation; and (3) to determine how the plasma irregularities affect the propagation of electro-magnetic waves. C/NOFS is the first satellite solely dedicated to forecasting ionospheric irregularities and radio wave scintillations. It will be equipped with sensors that measure the following parameters: ambient and fluctuating electron densities; ion and electron temperatures; AC and DC electric fields; magnetic fields; neutral winds; ionospheric scintillations; and electron content along the lines of sight between C/NOFS and the Global Positioning System (GPS). Thus, the sensor suite on C/NOFS is richer than on any previously flown equatorial satellite. A broad range of ground-based measurements will complement the space data. In addition, data from several other satellites and rocket experiments will augment the C/NOFS observations. Several campaigns are planned to validate operational forecasts, acquire data to achieve the science goals, and test the theoretical models. We anticipate that by the end of the C/NOFS mission, our understanding of the physics controlling the equatorial ionosphere will have advanced to

  19. Manipulation of D2 receptors with quinpirole and sulpiride affects locomotor activity before spatial behavior of rats in an active place avoidance task.

    PubMed

    Stuchlik, Ales; Rehakova, Lenka; Rambousek, Lukas; Svoboda, Jan; Vales, Karel

    2007-06-01

    Dopamine-mediated neurotransmission is widely studied with respect to motivation, motor activity and cognitive processes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the role of D2 receptors in the behavior of rats in the active allothetic place avoidance (AAPA) task. D2 receptor agonist quinpirole and antagonist sulpiride were administered intraperitoneally 20min prior to behavioral testing. Administration of quinpirole led to dose-dependent increase of locomotion; the spatial efficiency was spared across the dose range studied (0.05-1.0mg/kg). In contrast, sulpiride decreased locomotor activity at a dose not influencing spatial efficiency (60mg/kg); the highest dose of sulpiride (100mg/kg) caused a deficit in both locomotor and spatial behaviors. The results suggest a relatively lesser importance of D2 receptors for spatial efficiency in the AAPA task, with a predominant influence of D2 receptor ligands on motor activity. PMID:17360063

  20. Seasonal streamflow forecasting with the global hydrological forecasting system FEWS-World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Van Beek, L. P.; Winsemius, H.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2011-12-01

    The year-to-year variability of river discharge brings about risks and opportunities in water resources management. Reliable hydrological forecasts and effective communication allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. For these regions, a global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value. FEWS-World is developed for this purpose. The system incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB and delivers streamflow forecasts on a global scale. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value is its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The results will be disseminated on the internet to provide valuable information for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The preliminary skill assessment of PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing flow extremes is carried out for a selection of 20 large rivers of the world. The model is run for a historical period, with a meteorological forcing data set based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, and the ERA-40 reanalysis of ECMWF. Model skill in reproducing monthly anomalies as well as floods and droughts is assessed by applying verification measures developed for deterministic meteorological forecasts. The results of this preliminary analysis shows that even where the simulated hydrographs are biased, higher skills can be attained in reproducing monthly

  1. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  2. Wind speed forecasting for wind energy applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hong

    With more wind energy being integrated into our grid systems, forecasting wind energy has become a necessity for all market participants. Recognizing the market demands, a physical approach to site-specific hub-height wind speed forecasting system has been developed. This system is driven by the outputs from the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. A simple interpolation approach benchmarks the forecasting accuracy inherited from GEM. Local, site specific winds are affected on a local scale by a variety of factors including representation of the land surface and local boundary-layer process over heterogeneous terrain which have been a continuing challenge in NWP models like GEM with typical horizontal resolution of order 15-km. In order to resolve these small scale effects, a wind energy industry standard model, WAsP, is coupled with GEM to improve the forecast. Coupling the WAsP model with GEM improves the overall forecasts, but remains unsatisfactory for forecasting winds with abrupt surface condition changes. Subsequently in this study, a new coupler that uses a 2-D RANS model of boundary-layer flow over surface condition changes with improved physics has been developed to further improve the forecasts when winds coming from a water surface to land experience abrupt changes in surface conditions. It has been demonstrated that using vertically averaged wind speeds to represent geostrophic winds for input into the micro-scale models could reduce forecast errors. The hub-height wind speed forecasts could be further improved using a linear MOS approach. The forecasting system has been evaluated, using a wind energy standard evaluation matrix, against data from an 80-m mast located near the north shore of Lake Erie. Coupling with GEM-LAM and a power conversion model using a theoretical power curve have also been investigated. For hub-height wind speeds GEM appears to perform better with a 15-Ian grid than the high resolution GEM-2.5Ian version at the

  3. Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 8, Germany's War on the Soviet Union, 1941-45. I. Long-range Weather Forecasts for 1941-42 and Climatological Studies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neumann, J.; Flohn, H.

    1987-06-01

    A brief account is given of Baur's long-range weather forecast prepared in the autumn of 1941 for the 1941-42 winter in Eastern Europe. Baur's forecast called for a normal' or mild winter but the winter turned out to be one of the most severe winters on record. The cold, the icy winds and blizzards gravely hit the German armies and coincided with the first major Soviet counteroffensive of the war. A Soviet weather forecast for January 1942, also called for a mild month.A review of the climatological studies prepared for the war indicates that the occurrence of mud periods of considerable intensity in autumn was not considered. The autumn 1941 mud period immobilized most of the German armies for a month and caused the attempted final German assault on Moscow to take place in an early and severe winter.Hitter would not tolerate the mention of winter and still less the mention of the retreat of Napoleon's Grande Armée from Russia.The support given by Soviet meteorologists and hydrologists to the Red Army is sketched. For the 1941-42 winter the more-important short- to medium-range forecasts included a forecast for 7 November (anniversary of the October Revolution) at Moscow and a forecast for the start of Zhukov's counteroffensive in the Battle of Moscow in December 1941.

  4. Does language dominance affect cognitive performance in bilinguals? Lifespan evidence from preschoolers through older adults on card sorting, Simon, and metalinguistic tasks

    PubMed Central

    Gathercole, Virginia C. Mueller; Thomas, Enlli M.; Kennedy, Ivan; Prys, Cynog; Young, Nia; Viñas Guasch, Nestor; Roberts, Emily J.; Hughes, Emma K.; Jones, Leah

    2014-01-01

    This study explores the extent to which a bilingual advantage can be observed for three tasks in an established population of fully fluent bilinguals from childhood through adulthood. Welsh-English simultaneous and early sequential bilinguals, as well as English monolinguals, aged 3 years through older adults, were tested on three sets of cognitive and executive function tasks. Bilinguals were Welsh-dominant, balanced, or English-dominant, with only Welsh, Welsh and English, or only English at home. Card sorting, Simon, and a metalinguistic judgment task (650, 557, and 354 participants, respectively) reveal little support for a bilingual advantage, either in relation to control or globally. Primarily there is no difference in performance across groups, but there is occasionally better performance by monolinguals or persons dominant in the language being tested, and in one case-in one condition and in one age group-lower performance by the monolinguals. The lack of evidence for a bilingual advantage in these simultaneous and early sequential bilinguals suggests the need for much closer scrutiny of what type of bilingual might demonstrate the reported effects, under what conditions, and why. PMID:24550853

  5. Does language dominance affect cognitive performance in bilinguals? Lifespan evidence from preschoolers through older adults on card sorting, Simon, and metalinguistic tasks.

    PubMed

    Gathercole, Virginia C Mueller; Thomas, Enlli M; Kennedy, Ivan; Prys, Cynog; Young, Nia; Viñas Guasch, Nestor; Roberts, Emily J; Hughes, Emma K; Jones, Leah

    2014-01-01

    This study explores the extent to which a bilingual advantage can be observed for three tasks in an established population of fully fluent bilinguals from childhood through adulthood. Welsh-English simultaneous and early sequential bilinguals, as well as English monolinguals, aged 3 years through older adults, were tested on three sets of cognitive and executive function tasks. Bilinguals were Welsh-dominant, balanced, or English-dominant, with only Welsh, Welsh and English, or only English at home. Card sorting, Simon, and a metalinguistic judgment task (650, 557, and 354 participants, respectively) reveal little support for a bilingual advantage, either in relation to control or globally. Primarily there is no difference in performance across groups, but there is occasionally better performance by monolinguals or persons dominant in the language being tested, and in one case-in one condition and in one age group-lower performance by the monolinguals. The lack of evidence for a bilingual advantage in these simultaneous and early sequential bilinguals suggests the need for much closer scrutiny of what type of bilingual might demonstrate the reported effects, under what conditions, and why. PMID:24550853

  6. Multispectral satellite training for inexperienced Navy forecasters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuciauskas, Arunas P.; Lee, Thomas F.; Durkee, Philip A.; Ledesma, Roy

    2004-10-01

    Recent advancements of meteorology and oceanography (METOC) satellite products has resulted from a surge in computing resources and expanded communications via the Internet. Greater tactical demands in military operations are placed on Navy and Marine METOC personnel to provide better atmospheric depictions and forecasts in support of helicopter, fighter jet and ground troop operations, as was experienced in Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom. Unfortunately, US military weather forecasters are often limited in their abilities to provide state of the art products and forecasts. One reason for these inefficiencies are that oftentimes, daily forecasting tasks are left to non-commissioned personnel (e.g., AG"s and ET"s) who receive little or no classroom training in this area, nor are there continuing education/training available. METOC forecast centers vary greatly and might not have access to the appropriate information base to answer ongoing questions. Additionally, the typical tour of duty at a particular forecast center is 2 years, resulting in a stressful environment to bring new forecasters up to speed in demanding forecast operations. The result is that the user is often confined to image looping and basic image enhancements to convey the general environmental conditions over the region of interest. To facilitate the learning process, the Naval Research Laboratory and the Naval Postgraduate School have developed a 3 day intensive laboratory and lecture course in satellite remote sensing, focusing on topics vital to military operations such as smoke and fire detection, coastal maritime layer analysis, snow, fog, haze, tropical cyclones, hazardous wind conditions, etc. A wealth of satellite data is provided from MODIS, AVHRR, DMSP and Geostationary satellite data. Background satellite remote sensing topics such as radiative transfer theory is also presented. This report presents a sample of the material used within the training.

  7. Spatiotemporal drought forecasting using nonlinear models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios

    2010-05-01

    Spatiotemporal data mining is the extraction of unknown and implicit knowledge, structures, spatiotemporal relationships, or patterns not explicitly stored in spatiotemporal databases. As one of data mining techniques, forecasting is widely used to predict the unknown future based upon the patterns hidden in the current and past data. In order to achieve spatiotemporal forecasting, some mature analysis tools, e.g., time series and spatial statistics are extended to the spatial dimension and the temporal dimension, respectively. Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of natural resources and water resource systems in a river basin. Early and timelines forecasting of a drought event can help to take proactive measures and set out drought mitigation strategies to alleviate the impacts of drought. Despite the widespread application of nonlinear mathematical models, comparative studies on spatiotemporal drought forecasting using different models are still a huge task for modellers. This study uses a promising approach, the Gamma Test (GT), to select the input variables and the training data length, so that the trial and error workload could be greatly reduced. The GT enables to quickly evaluate and estimate the best mean squared error that can be achieved by a smooth model on any unseen data for a given selection of inputs, prior to model construction. The GT is applied to forecast droughts using monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) timeseries at multiple timescales in several precipitation stations at Pinios river basin in Thessaly region, Greece. Several nonlinear models have been developed efficiently, with the aid of the GT, for 1-month up to 12-month ahead forecasting. Several temporal and spatial statistical indices were considered for the performance evaluation of the models. The predicted results show reasonably good agreement with the actual data for short lead times, whereas the forecasting accuracy decreases with

  8. An alternate approach to ensemble ENSO forecast spread: Application to the 2014 forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larson, Sarah M.; Kirtman, Ben P.

    2015-11-01

    Evaluating the 2014 El Niño forecast as a "bust" may be tapping into a bigger issue, namely that forecast "overconfidence" from single-model ensembles could affect the retrospective assessment of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. The present study proposes a new approach to quantifying an "expected" spread and uncertainty from noise-driven processes and supplementing these measures with actual ENSO forecasts. Expanding on a previously developed coupled model framework that isolates noise-driven ENSO-like errors, an experimental design is implemented to generate an expected December Niño-3.4 spread from March initial condition sea surface temperature errors that have similar structure to the 2014 and 2015 observed. Results reveal that the 2014 ENSO forecast falls within the expected uncertainty generated by ENSO-independent, forecast-independent, noise-driven errors.

  9. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  10. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  11. Integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Mosimann, Markus; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    A key aspect of disaster prevention is flood discharge forecasting which is used for early warning and therefore as a decision support for intervention forces. Hereby, the phase between the issued forecast and the time when the expected flood occurs is crucial for an optimal planning of the intervention. Typically, river discharge forecasts cover the regional level only, i.e. larger catchments. However, it is important to note that these forecasts are not useable directly for specific target groups on local level because these forecasts say nothing about the consequences of the predicted flood in terms of affected areas, number of exposed residents and houses. For this, on one hand simulations of the flooding processes and on the other hand data of vulnerable objects are needed. Furthermore, flood modelling in a high spatial and temporal resolution is required for robust flood loss estimation. This is a resource-intensive task from a computing time point of view. Therefore, in real-time applications flood modelling in 2D is not suited. Thus, forecasting flood losses in the short-term (6h-24h in advance) requires a different approach. Here, we propose a method to downscale the river discharge forecast to a spatially-explicit flood loss forecast. The principal procedure is to generate as many flood scenarios as needed in advance to represent the flooded areas for all possible flood hydrographs, e.g. very high peak discharges of short duration vs. high peak discharges with high volumes. For this, synthetic flood hydrographs were derived from the hydrologic time series. Then, the flooded areas of each scenario were modelled with a 2D flood simulation model. All scenarios were intersected with the dataset of vulnerable objects, in our case residential, agricultural and industrial buildings with information about the number of residents, the object-specific vulnerability, and the monetary value of the objects. This dataset was prepared by a data-mining approach. For each

  12. Weather assessment and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

  13. Task switching in a hierarchical task structure: evidence for the fragility of the task repetition benefit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lien, Mei-Ching; Ruthruff, Eric

    2004-01-01

    This study examined how task switching is affected by hierarchical task organization. Traditional task-switching studies, which use a constant temporal and spatial distance between each task element (defined as a stimulus requiring a response), promote a flat task structure. Using this approach, Experiment 1 revealed a large switch cost of 238 ms. In Experiments 2-5, adjacent task elements were grouped temporally and/or spatially (forming an ensemble) to create a hierarchical task organization. Results indicate that the effect of switching at the ensemble level dominated the effect of switching at the element level. Experiments 6 and 7, using an ensemble of 3 task elements, revealed that the element-level switch cost was virtually absent between ensembles but was large within an ensemble. The authors conclude that the element-level task repetition benefit is fragile and can be eliminated in a hierarchical task organization.

  14. Verification of Medium Range Probabilistic Rainfall Forecasts Over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dube, Anumeha; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Singh, Harvir; Iyengar, Gopal; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-03-01

    Forecasting rainfall in the tropics is a challenging task further hampered by the uncertainty in the numerical weather prediction models. Ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) provide an efficient way of handling the inherent uncertainty of these models. Verification of forecasts obtained from an EPS is a necessity, to build confidence in using these forecasts. This study deals with the verification of the probabilistic rainfall forecast obtained from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) Global Ensemble Forecast system (NGEFS) for three monsoon seasons, i.e., JJAS 2012, 2013 and 2014. Verification is done based on the Brier Score (BS) and its components (reliability, resolution and uncertainty), Brier Skill Score (BSS), reliability diagram, relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC (AROC) curve. Three observation data sets are used (namely, NMSG, CPC-RFE2.0 and TRMM) for verification of forecasts and the statistics are compared. BS values for verification of NGEFS forecasts using NMSG data are the lowest, indicating that the forecasts have a better match with these observations as compared to both TRMM and CPC-RFE2.0. This is further strengthened by lower reliability, higher resolution and BSS values for verification against this data set. The ROC curve shows that lower rainfall amounts have a higher hit rate, which implies that the model has better skill in predicting these rainfall amounts. The reliability plots show that the events with lower probabilities were under forecasted and those with higher probabilities were over forecasted. From the current study it can be concluded that even though NGEFS is a coarse resolution EPS, the probabilistic forecast has good skill. This in turn leads to an increased confidence in issuing operational probabilistic forecasts based on NGEFS.

  15. Verification of Medium Range Probabilistic Rainfall Forecasts Over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dube, Anumeha; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Singh, Harvir; Iyengar, Gopal; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting rainfall in the tropics is a challenging task further hampered by the uncertainty in the numerical weather prediction models. Ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) provide an efficient way of handling the inherent uncertainty of these models. Verification of forecasts obtained from an EPS is a necessity, to build confidence in using these forecasts. This study deals with the verification of the probabilistic rainfall forecast obtained from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) Global Ensemble Forecast system (NGEFS) for three monsoon seasons, i.e., JJAS 2012, 2013 and 2014. Verification is done based on the Brier Score (BS) and its components (reliability, resolution and uncertainty), Brier Skill Score (BSS), reliability diagram, relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC (AROC) curve. Three observation data sets are used (namely, NMSG, CPC-RFE2.0 and TRMM) for verification of forecasts and the statistics are compared. BS values for verification of NGEFS forecasts using NMSG data are the lowest, indicating that the forecasts have a better match with these observations as compared to both TRMM and CPC-RFE2.0. This is further strengthened by lower reliability, higher resolution and BSS values for verification against this data set. The ROC curve shows that lower rainfall amounts have a higher hit rate, which implies that the model has better skill in predicting these rainfall amounts. Th e reliability plots show that the events with lower probabilities were under forecasted and those with higher probabilities were over forecasted. From the current study it can be concluded that even though NGEFS is a coarse resolution EPS, the probabilistic forecast has good skill. This in turn leads to an increased confidence in issuing operational probabilistic forecasts based on NGEFS.

  16. The HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Forecast Test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nance, L. B.; Bernardet, L.; Bao, S.; Brown, B.; Carson, L.; Fowler, T.; Halley Gotway, J.; Harrop, C.; Szoke, E.; Tollerud, E. I.; Wolff, J.; Yuan, H.

    2010-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are a serious concern for the nation, causing significant risk to life, property and economic vitality. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service has a mission of issuing tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings, aimed at protecting life and property and enhancing the national economy. In the last 10 years, the errors in hurricane track forecasts have been reduced by about 50% through improved model guidance, enhanced observations, and forecaster expertise. However, little progress has been made during this period toward reducing forecasted intensity errors. To address this shortcoming, NOAA established the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) in 2007. HFIP is a 10-year plan to improve one to five day tropical cyclone forecasts, with a focus on rapid intensity change. Recent research suggests that prediction models with grid spacing less than 1 km in the inner core of the hurricane may provide a substantial improvement in intensity forecasts. The 2008-09 staging of the High Resolution Hurricane (HRH) Test focused on quantifying the impact of increased horizontal resolution in numerical models on hurricane intensity forecasts. The primary goal of this test was an evaluation of the effect of increasing horizontal resolution within a given model across a variety of storms with different intensity, location and structure. The test focused on 69 retrospectives cases from the 2005 and 2007 hurricane seasons. Six modeling groups participated in the HRH test utilizing a variety of models, including three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the operational GFDL model, the Navy’s tropical cyclone model, and a model developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UWM). The Development Testbed Center (DTC) was tasked with providing objective verification statistics for a variety of metrics. This presentation provides an overview of the HRH Test and a summary of the standard

  17. Semantic gradients in picture-word interference tasks: is the size of interference effects affected by the degree of semantic overlap?

    PubMed Central

    Hutson, James; Damian, Markus F.

    2014-01-01

    We report two experiments attempting to identify the role of semantic relatedness in picture-word interference studies. Previously published data sets have rendered results which directly contradict each other, with one study suggesting that the stronger the relation between picture and distractor, the more semantic interference is obtained, and another study suggesting the opposite pattern. We replicated the two key experiments with only minor procedural modifications, and found semantic interference effects in both. Critically, these were largely independent of the strength of semantic overlap. Additionally, we attempted to predict individual interference effects per target picture, via various measures of semantic overlap, which also failed to account for the effects. From our results it appears that semantic interference effects in picture-word tasks are similarly present for weakly and strongly overlapping combinations. Implications are discussed in the light of the recent debate on the role of competition in lexical selection. PMID:25161636

  18. High versus low fat/sugar food affects the behavioral, but not the cortisol response of marmoset monkeys in a conditioned-place-preference task.

    PubMed

    Duarte, R B M; Patrono, E; Borges, A C; Tomaz, C; Ventura, R; Gasbarri, A; Puglisi-Allegra, S; Barros, M

    2015-02-01

    The effect of a high (chocolate) versus low fat/sugar (chow) food on a conditioned-place-preference (CPP) task was evaluated in marmoset monkeys. Anxiety-related behaviors and cortisol levels before and after the CPP task were also measured. Subjects were habituated to a two-compartment CPP box and then, on alternate days, had access to only one compartment during daily 15-min conditionings, for a total of 14 trials. Marmosets were provisioned with chocolate chips in the CC-paired compartment on odd-numbered trials and standard chow in the CW-paired compartment on even-numbered trials. They were then tested for preferring the CC-paired context after a 24-h interval. During the conditioning, a significantly greater amount (in kcal/trial) of chocolate was consumed than chow, yet the foraging pattern of both food types was similar. On the test trial, the time spent in the CC-paired context increased significantly compared to pre-CPP levels, yet this response was not readily predicted by baseline behavioral or cortisol levels. Also, the chocolate CPP response was positively correlated with foraging time, rather than the amount of calories consumed. The sudden absence of the food increased exploration, while the chocolate CPP effect was associated with vigilance - both anxiety-related behaviors in marmosets. This behavioral profile occurred regardless of any concomitant change or correlation with cortisol. Therefore, the high fat/sugar food was more prone to be overly consumed by the marmosets, to induce a CPP response and to lead to anxiety-related behavior in its absence. PMID:25447426

  19. Task Difficulty Differentially Affects Two Measures of Processing Load: The Pupil Response during Sentence Processing and Delayed Cued Recall of the Sentences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zekveld, Adriana A.; Festen, Joost M.; Kramer, Kramera

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: In this study, the authors assessed the influence of masking level (29% or 71% sentence perception) and test modality on the processing load during language perception as reflected by the pupil response. In addition, the authors administered a delayed cued stimulus recall test to examine whether processing load affected the encoding of…

  20. Forecasting Future Trends in Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collazo, Andres; And Others

    1977-01-01

    Describes a forecasting model sensitive to the major factors influencing educational outcomes, presents several forecasts based on alternative sets of assumptions, and discusses the implications of these forecasts, including ways to subvert them. (Author/JG)

  1. Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmahon, J.

    1972-01-01

    Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports.

  2. Congressional Election Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Rice, Tom W.

    1988-01-01

    Reviews the growing literature on the forecasting of elections, providing an example in the form of 1988 congressional election predictions. Briefly discusses the history of election outcome prediction and outlines two scientific forecasting models which, the authors state, are appropriate for use in the classroom. (GEA)

  3. Forecasting decadal and shorter time-scale solar cycle features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dikpati, Mausumi

    2016-07-01

    Solar energetic particles and magnetic fields reach the Earth through the interplanetary medium and affect it in various ways, producing beautiful aurorae, but also electrical blackouts and damage to our technology-dependent economy. The root of energetic solar outputs is the solar activity cycle, which is most likely caused by dynamo processes inside the Sun. It is a formidable task to accurately predict the amplitude, onset and peak timings of a solar cycle. After reviewing all solar cycle prediction methods, including empirical as well as physical model-based schemes, I will describe what we have learned from both validation and nonvalidation of cycle 24 forecasts, and how to refine the model-based schemes for upcoming cycle 25 forecasts. Recent observations indicate that within a solar cycle there are shorter time-scale 'space weather' features, such as bursts of various forms of activity with approximately one year periodicity. I will demonstrate how global tachocline dynamics could play a crucial role in producing such space weather. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

  4. Dual task performance with LPC (Linear Predictive Coding) degraded speech in a sentence verification task

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt-Nielsen, Astrid; Kallman, Howard J.; Meijer, Corinne

    1989-10-01

    The results of a preliminary study on the effects of reduced speech intelligibility on dual task performance are reported. The speech task was a sentence verification task, and the speech degradation was accomplished using a narrowband digital voice transmission system operating with and without random bit errors. The second task was a visual picture sorting task. There was a dual task decrement on the sorting task, and in addition, there was a further decrease in sorts per minute as the speech was increasingly degraded. Reaction time for the speech task increased with the concurrent sorting task, but the dual task condition did not affect speech task error rates.

  5. Exposure of baboons to combined 60 Hz electric and magnetic fields does not produce work stoppage or affect operant performance on a match-to-sample task

    SciTech Connect

    Orr, J.L.; Rogers, W.R.; Smith, H.D.

    1995-12-31

    The authors examined the effects of combined 60 Hz electric and magnetic field (EMF) exposure on performance of delayed match-to-sample (MTS) procedure involving the flash rate of a light as the stimulus. Six baboons (Papio cynocephalus) fully acquired the task; four others functioned accurately only when cued. All ten subjects were assigned to EMF-exposed or sham-exposed groups of five and were used to test for a work-stoppage effect that was previously observed with initial exposure to electric fields (EF) of 30 or 60 kV/m. Here, the authors report the results of two experiments, each consisting of 6 week preexposure, exposure, and postexposure periods. They found no evidence of work stoppage with fields of 6 kV/m and 50 {micro}T (0.5 G) or with 30 kV/m and 100 {micro}T (1.0 G). In neither experiment was there evidence of an adverse effect of 60 Hz EMF exposure on MTS performance.

  6. Forecast of iceberg ensemble drift

    SciTech Connect

    El-Tahan, M.S.; El-Tahan, H.W.; Venkatesh, S.

    1983-05-01

    The objectives of the study are to gain a better understanding of the characteristics of iceberg motion and the factors controlling iceberg drift, and to develop an iceberg ensemble drift forecast system to be operated by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service. An extensive review of field and theoretical studies on iceberg behaviour, and the factors controlling iceberg motion has been carried out. Long term and short term behaviour of icebergs are critically examined. A quantitative assessment of the effects of the factors controlling iceberg motion is presented. The study indicated that wind and currents are the primary driving forces. Coriolis Force and ocean surface slope also have significant effects. As for waves, only the higher waves have a significant effect. Iceberg drift is also affected by iceberg size characteristics. Based on the findings of the study a comprehensive computerized forecast system to predict the drift of iceberg ensembles off Canada's east coast has been designed. The expected accuracy of the forecast system is discussed and recommendations are made for future improvements to the system.

  7. Energy price forecasting: a look at two methods

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, R.J.

    1983-07-01

    Energy price forecasts can be effectively employed for cost-effectiveness analyses of all types of products which use energy or affect energy use. This report details two of the best-known methods in which forecasts may be incorporated into savings analysis.

  8. Forecasting gaming revenues in Clark County, Nevada: Issues and methods

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, B.K.; Bando, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the Western Area Gaming and Economic Response Simulator (WAGERS), a forecasting model that emphasizes the role of the gaming industry in Clark County, Nevada. Is is designed to generate forecasts of gaming revenues in Clark County, whose regional economy is dominated by the gaming industry. The model is meant to forecast Clark County gaming revenues and identifies the exogenous variables that affect gaming revenues. It will provide baseline forecasts of Clark County gaming revenues in order to assess changes in gaming-related economic activity resulting from changes in regional economic activity and tourism.

  9. Forecasting gaming revenues in Clark County, Nevada: Issues and methods

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, B.K.; Bando, A.

    1992-07-01

    This paper describes the Western Area Gaming and Economic Response Simulator (WAGERS), a forecasting model that emphasizes the role of the gaming industry in Clark County, Nevada. Is is designed to generate forecasts of gaming revenues in Clark County, whose regional economy is dominated by the gaming industry. The model is meant to forecast Clark County gaming revenues and identifies the exogenous variables that affect gaming revenues. It will provide baseline forecasts of Clark County gaming revenues in order to assess changes in gaming-related economic activity resulting from changes in regional economic activity and tourism.

  10. Forecasting the 12-14 March 1993 superstorm

    SciTech Connect

    Uccellini, L.W.; Kocin, P.J.; Schneider, R.S.; Stokols, P.M.; Dorr, R.A. |

    1995-02-01

    This paper describes the decision-making process used by the forecasters in the National Meteorological Center`s (NMC`s) Meterolological Operations Division and in Weather Forecast Offices of the National Weather Service to provide the successful forecasts of the superstorm of 12-14 March 1993. This review illustrates (1) the difficult decisions forecasters faced when using sometimes conflicting model guidance, (2) the forecasters` success in recognizing the mesoscale aspects of the storm as it began to develop and move along the Gulf and East Coasts of the United States, and (3) their ability to produce one of the most successful heavy snow and blizzard forecasts ever for a major winter storm that affected the eastern third of the United States. The successful aspects of the forecasts include the following. (1) Cyclogenesis was predicted up to 5 days prior to its onset. (2) The unusual intensity of the storm was predicted three days in advance, allowing forecasters, government officials, and the media ample time to prepare the public, marine, and aviation interests to take precautions for the protection of life and property. (3) The excessive amounts and areal distribution of snowfall were prediceted two days in advance of its onset. (4) An extensive number of blizzard watches and warnings were issued throughout the eastern United States with unprecedented lead times. (5) The coordination of forecasts within the National Weather Service and between the National Weather Service, private forecasters, and media meteorologists was perhaps the most extensive in recent history.

  11. Forecasting and Resource Allocation in Educational Administration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schaefer, Marguerite J.

    1977-01-01

    An awareness of all the forces affecting higher education today is not enough; carefully planned strategies to deal with them are also necessary for effective administration. Organizational-environmental concerns, the seven-component model for managing organizational complexity, and forecasting technologies are among topics discussed. (Editor/TA)

  12. Validation of Seasonal Forecast of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, Sukanta Kumar; Deb, Sanjib Kumar; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, Pradip Kumar

    2015-06-01

    The experimental seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during June through September using Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 3 has been carried out at the Space Applications Centre Ahmedabad since 2009. The forecasts, based on a number of ensemble members (ten minimum) of CAM, are generated in several phases and updated on regular basis. On completion of 5 years of experimental seasonal forecasts in operational mode, it is required that the overall validation or correctness of the forecast system is quantified and that the scope is assessed for further improvements of the forecast over time, if any. The ensemble model climatology generated by a set of 20 identical CAM simulations is considered as the model control simulation. The performance of the forecast has been evaluated by assuming the control simulation as the model reference. The forecast improvement factor shows positive improvements, with higher values for the recent forecasted years as compared to the control experiment over the Indian landmass. The Taylor diagram representation of the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), standard deviation and centered root mean square difference has been used to demonstrate the best PCC, in the order of 0.74-0.79, recorded for the seasonal forecast made during 2013. Further, the bias score of different phases of experiment revealed the fact that the ISM rainfall forecast is affected by overestimation in predicting the low rain-rate (less than 7 mm/day), but by underestimation in the medium and high rain-rate (higher than 11 mm/day). Overall, the analysis shows significant improvement of the ISM forecast over the last 5 years, viz. 2009-2013, due to several important modifications that have been implemented in the forecast system. The validation exercise has also pointed out a number of shortcomings in the forecast system; these will be addressed in the upcoming years of experiments to improve the quality of the ISM prediction.

  13. An Integrated Enrollment Forecast Model. IR Applications, Volume 15, January 18, 2008

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Chau-Kuang

    2008-01-01

    Enrollment forecasting is the central component of effective budget and program planning. The integrated enrollment forecast model is developed to achieve a better understanding of the variables affecting student enrollment and, ultimately, to perform accurate forecasts. The transfer function model of the autoregressive integrated moving average…

  14. Statistical evaluation of forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J.; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

    2014-08-01

    Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

  15. Skill of a global seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candogan Yossef, Naze; Winsemius, Hessel; Weerts, Albrecht; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Forecasting of water availability and scarcity is a prerequisite for managing the risks and opportunities caused by the inter-annual variability of streamflow. Reliable seasonal streamflow forecasts are necessary to prepare for an appropriate response in disaster relief, management of hydropower reservoirs, water supply, agriculture and navigation. Seasonal hydrological forecasting on a global scale could be valuable especially for developing regions of the world, where effective hydrological forecasting systems are scarce. In this study, we investigate the forecasting skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. FEWS-World has been setup within the European Commission 7th Framework Programme project Global Water Scarcity Information Service (GLOWASIS). Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The assessment in historical simulation mode used a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We assessed the skill of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing past discharge extremes in 20 large rivers of the world. This preliminary assessment concluded that the prospects for seasonal forecasting with PCR-GLOBWB or comparable models are positive. However this assessment did not include actual meteorological forecasts. Thus the meteorological forcing errors were not assessed. Yet, in a forecasting setup, the predictive skill of a hydrological forecasting system is affected by errors due to uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode, the model is forced with actual ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. Skill is assessed at 78 stations on large river basins across the globe, for all the months of

  16. SSUSI Aurora Forecast Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsieh, S. W.; Zhang, Y.; Schaefer, R. K.; Romeo, G.; Paxton, L.

    2013-12-01

    A new capability has been developed at JHU/APL for forecasting the global aurora quantities based on the DMSP SSUSI data and the TIMED/GUVI Global Aurora Model. The SSUSI Aurora Forecast Model predicts the electron energy flux, mean energy, and equatorward boundary in the auroral oval for up to 1 day or 15 DMSP orbits in advance. In our presentation, we will demonstrate this newly implemented capability and its results. The future improvement plan will be discussed too.

  17. Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaake, J.; Demargne, J.; Hartman, R.; Mullusky, M.; Welles, E.; Wu, L.; Herr, H.; Fan, X.; Seo, D. J.

    2007-04-01

    A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of precipitation and temperature. This involves dividing the spatial forecast domain and total forecast period into a number of parts that are treated as separate forecast events. The spatial domain is divided into hydrologic sub-basins. The total forecast period is divided into time periods, one for each model time step. For each event archived values of forecasts and corresponding observations are used to model the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. The conditional distribution of observations for a given single-value forecast is used to represent the corresponding probability distribution of events that may occur for that forecast. This conditional forecast distribution subsequently is used to create ensemble members that vary in space and time using the "Schaake Shuffle" (Clark et al, 2004). The resulting ensemble members have the same space-time patterns as historical observations so that space-time joint relationships between events that have a significant effect on hydrological response tend to be preserved. Forecast uncertainty is space and time-scale dependent. For a given lead time to the beginning of the valid period of an event, forecast uncertainty depends on the length of the forecast valid time period and the spatial area to which the forecast applies. Although the "Schaake Shuffle" procedure, when applied to construct ensemble members from a time-series of single value forecasts, may preserve some of this scale dependency, it may not be sufficient without additional constraint. To account more fully for the time-dependent structure of forecast uncertainty, events for additional "aggregate" forecast periods are defined as accumulations of different "base" forecast periods. The generated ensemble members can be ingested by an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system to produce ensemble forecasts of streamflow and other hydrological variables that reflect

  18. An overview of health forecasting.

    PubMed

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2013-01-01

    Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery. PMID:22949173

  19. Intermittent Demand Forecasting in a Tertiary Pediatric Intensive Care Unit.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Chen-Yang; Chiang, Kuo-Liang; Chen, Meng-Yin

    2016-10-01

    Forecasts of the demand for medical supplies both directly and indirectly affect the operating costs and the quality of the care provided by health care institutions. Specifically, overestimating demand induces an inventory surplus, whereas underestimating demand possibly compromises patient safety. Uncertainty in forecasting the consumption of medical supplies generates intermittent demand events. The intermittent demand patterns for medical supplies are generally classified as lumpy, erratic, smooth, and slow-moving demand. This study was conducted with the purpose of advancing a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit's efforts to achieve a high level of accuracy in its forecasting of the demand for medical supplies. On this point, several demand forecasting methods were compared in terms of the forecast accuracy of each. The results confirm that applying Croston's method combined with a single exponential smoothing method yields the most accurate results for forecasting lumpy, erratic, and slow-moving demand, whereas the Simple Moving Average (SMA) method is the most suitable for forecasting smooth demand. In addition, when the classification of demand consumption patterns were combined with the demand forecasting models, the forecasting errors were minimized, indicating that this classification framework can play a role in improving patient safety and reducing inventory management costs in health care institutions. PMID:27562485

  20. Space weather forecasting: Past, Present, Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanzerotti, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    There have been revolutionary advances in electrical technologies over the last 160 years. The historical record demonstrates that space weather processes have often provided surprises in the implementation and operation of many of these technologies. The historical record also demonstrates that as the complexity of systems increase, including their interconnectedness and interoperability, they can become more susceptible to space weather effects. An engineering goal, beginning during the decades following the 1859 Carrington event, has been to attempt to forecast solar-produced disturbances that could affect technical systems, be they long grounded conductor-based or radio-based or required for exploration, or the increasingly complex systems immersed in the space environment itself. Forecasting of space weather events involves both frontier measurements and models to address engineering requirements, and industrial and governmental policies that encourage and permit creativity and entrepreneurship. While analogies of space weather forecasting to terrestrial weather forecasting are frequently made, and while many of the analogies are valid, there are also important differences. This presentation will provide some historical perspectives on the forecast problem, a personal assessment of current status of several areas including important policy issues, and a look into the not-too-distant future.

  1. Efficiency of a real time flood forecasting system in the Alps and in the Apennines: deterministic versus ensemble predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossi, G.

    2009-04-01

    Real time hydrological forecasting is still a challenging task for most of the Italian territory, especially in mountain areas where both the topography and the meteorological forcing are affected by a strong spatial variability. Nevertheless there is an increasing request to provide some clues for the development of efficient real time flood forecasting systems, for warning population as well as for water management purposes. In this perspective the efficiency of a real time forecasting system needs to be investigated, with particular care to the uncertainty of the provided prediction and to how this prediction will be handled by water resources managers and land protection services. To this aim a real time flood forecasting system using both deterministic and ensemble meteorological predictions has been implemented at University of Brescia and applied to an Alpine area (the Toce River - Piemonte Region) and to an Apennine area (the Taro River - Emilia Romagna Region). The Map D- Phase experiment (autumn 2007) was a good test for the implemented system: daily rainfall fields provided by high resolution deterministic limited area meteorological models and esemble rainfall predictions provided by coarser resolution meteorological models could be used to force a hydrological model and produce either a single deterministic or an esemble of flood forecats. Namely only minor flood events occurred in the Alpine area in autumn 2007, while one major flood event affected the Taro river at the end of November 2007. Focusing on this major event the potentials of the forecasting system was tested and evaluated with reference also to the geographical and climatic characteristics of the investigated area.

  2. Affective differences in Iowa Gambling Task performance associated with sexual risk taking and substance use among HIV-positive and HIV-negative men who have sex with men

    PubMed Central

    Golub, Sarit A.; Thompson, Louisa I.; Kowalczyk, William J.

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the relationship between emotional distress and decision-making in sexual risk and substance use behavior among 174 (ages 25 to 50, 53% black) men who have sex with men (MSM), a population at increased risk for HIV. The sample was stratified by HIV status. Measures of affective decision-making (Iowa Gambling Task, IGT, Bechara et al., 1994), depression, anxiety, sex acts, and substance use during the past 60 days were collected at our research center. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine the relationship between age, HIV status, anxiety, depression, and IGT performance in the prediction of number of risky sex acts and substance use days. Among those without anxiety or depression, both number of risky sex acts and drug use days decreased with better performance during risky trials (i.e., last two blocks) of the IGT. For those with higher rates of anxiety, but not depression, IGT risk trial performance and risky sex acts increased concomitantly. Anxiety also interacted with IGT performance across all trials to predict substance use, such that anxiety was associated with greater substance use among those with better IGT performance. The opposite was true for those with depression, but only during risk trials. HIV-positive participants reported fewer substance use days than HIV-negative participants, but there was no difference in association between behavior and IGT performance by HIV status. Our findings suggest that anxiety may exacerbate risk-taking behavior when affective decision-making ability is intact. The relationship between affective decision-making and risk taking may be sensitive to different profiles of emotional distress, as well as behavioral context. Investigations of affective decision-making in sexual risk taking and substance use should examine different distress profiles separately, with implications for HIV prevention efforts. PMID:26745769

  3. Using Forecasting Models to Plan for Social Work Education in the Next Century.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Faherty, Vincent E.

    1997-01-01

    Explores the use of forecasting in social work education to plan for change, and describes two qualitative and two quantitative forecasting models. Recounts the responses of one university task force to using the models for program administration and development, and examines areas of social work education in which the models may be useful.…

  4. Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst-Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joslyn, Susan; Savelli, Sonia; Nadav-Greenberg, Limor

    2011-01-01

    Many weather forecast providers believe that forecast uncertainty in the form of the worst-case scenario would be useful for general public end users. We tested this suggestion in 4 studies using realistic weather-related decision tasks involving high winds and low temperatures. College undergraduates, given the statistical equivalent of the…

  5. Putting Mathematical Tasks into Context

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nagle, Courtney R.; Styers, Jodie L.

    2015-01-01

    Although many factors affect students' mathematical activity during a lesson, the teacher's selection and implementation of tasks is arguably the most influential in determining the level of student engagement. Mathematical tasks are intended to focus students' attention on a particular mathematical concept and it is the careful developing and…

  6. Forecasting digital microcircuit obsolescence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balwally, Nandakumar M.

    1991-03-01

    This report documents a procedure for forecasting digital microcircuit obsolescence at the Defense Electronics Supply Center, Dayton, OH. Obsolescence is caused by rapid advancement in digital technology and decrease in commercial demand while military demand still continues. In logistics parlance, parts obsolescence is known as a diminishing manufacturing source (DMS) problem. Continued supply of an obsolete DMS item is assured via substitution, alternate sourcing or a one time buy equal to the lifetime requirements of the item. Emulation is a recent alternative which explores the possibility of replacing obsolete digital microcircuits with state of the art devices which can be manufactured and supplied on demand. The report recommends use of a statistical model which forecasts DMS items from a population of presently non-DMS items belonging to obsolete digital microcircuit technologies. The items forecast by the model should be evaluated for their emulation potential.

  7. Forecasters of earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maximova, Lyudmila

    1987-07-01

    For the first time Soviet scientists have set up a bioseismological proving ground which will stage a systematic extensive experiment of using birds, ants, mountain rodents including marmots, which can dig holes in the Earth's interior to a depth of 50 meters, for the purpose of earthquake forecasting. Biologists have accumulated extensive experimental data on the impact of various electromagnetic fields, including fields of weak intensity, on living organisms. As far as mammals are concerned, electromagnetic waves with frequencies close to the brain's biorhythms have the strongest effect. How these observations can be used to forecast earthquakes is discussed.

  8. Route based forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuurendonk, I. W.; Wokke, M. J. J.

    2009-09-01

    Road surface temperatures can differ several degrees on a very short distance due to local effects. In order to get more insight in the local temperature differences and to develop safer gritting routes, Meteogroup has developed a system for route based temperature forecasting. The standard version of the road model is addressed to forecast road surface temperature and condition for a specific location. This model consists of two parts. First a physical part, based on the energy balance equations. The second part of the model performs a statistical correction on the calculated physical road surface temperature. The road model is able to create a forecast for one specific location. From infrared measurements, we know that large local differences in road surface temperature exist on a route. Differences can be up to 5 degrees Celsius over a distance of several hundreds of meters. Based on those measurements, the idea came up to develop a system that forecasts road surface temperature and condition for an entire route: route based forecasting. The route is split up in sections with equal properties. For each section a temperature and condition will be calculated. The main factors that influence the road surface temperature are modelled in this forecasting system: •The local weather conditions: temperature, dew point temperature, wind, precipitation, weather type, cloudiness. •The sky view: A very sheltered place will receive less radiation during daytime and emit less radiation during nighttime. For a very open spot, the effects are reversed. •The solar view: A road section with trees on the southern side, will receive less solar radiation during daytime than a section with tress on the southern side. The route based forecast shows by means of a clear Google Maps presentation which sections will be slippery at what time of the coming night. The final goal of this type of forecast, is to make dynamical gritting possible: a variable salt amount and a different

  9. Phantosmia as a meteorological forecaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aiello, S. R.; Hirsch, A. R.

    2013-09-01

    In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia forecasted the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to forecast the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted.

  10. Value assessment of a global hydrological forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; van Beek, E.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2012-04-01

    The inter-annual variability in streamflow presents risks and opportunities in the management of water resources systems. Reliable hydrological forecasts, effective communication and proper response allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. A global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value for these regions. FEWS-World system is developed for this purpose. It is based on the Delft-FEWS (flood early warning system) developed by Deltares and incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value as its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. For the assessment in historical simulation mode a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode the model was forced with ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from ECMWF. The results will be disseminated on the internet, and hopefully provide information that is valuable for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The results of the preliminary assessment show that although forecasting skill decreases with increasing lead time, the value of forecasts does not necessarily decrease. The forecast requirements and response options of several water related sectors was

  11. Task-specific Dystonias

    PubMed Central

    Torres-Russotto, Diego; Perlmutter, Joel S.

    2009-01-01

    Task-specific dystonias are primary focal dystonias characterized by excessive muscle contractions producing abnormal postures during selective motor activities that often involve highly skilled, repetitive movements. Historically these peculiar postures were considered psychogenic but have now been classified as forms of dystonia. Writer’s cramp is the most commonly identified task-specific dystonia and has features typical of this group of disorders. Symptoms may begin with lack of dexterity during performance of a specific motor task with increasingly abnormal posturing of the involved body part as motor activity continues. Initially, the dystonia may manifest only during the performance of the inciting task, but as the condition progresses it may also occur during other activities or even at rest. Neurological exam is usually unremarkable except for the dystonia-related abnormalities. Although the precise pathophysiology remains unclear, increasing evidence suggests reduced inhibition at different levels of the sensorimotor system. Symptomatic treatment options include oral medications, botulinum toxin injections, neurosurgical procedures, and adaptive strategies. Prognosis may vary depending upon body part involved and specific type of task affected. Further research may reveal new insights into the etiology, pathophysiology, natural history, and improved treatment of these conditions. PMID:18990127

  12. Developing air quality forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Pius; Saylor, Rick; Meagher, James

    2012-05-01

    Third International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research; Potomac, Maryland, 29 November to 1 December 2011 Elevated concentrations of both near-surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometers in diameter have been implicated in increased mortality and other human health impacts. In light of these known influences on human health, many governments around the world have instituted air quality forecasting systems to provide their citizens with advance warning of impending poor air quality so that they can take actions to limit exposure. In an effort to improve the performance of air quality forecasting systems and provide a forum for the exchange of the latest research in air quality modeling, the International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research (IWAQFR) was established in 2009 and is cosponsored by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Environment Canada (EC), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The steering committee for IWAQFR's establishment was composed of Véronique Bouchet, Mike Howe, and Craig Stoud (EC); Greg Carmichael (University of Iowa); Paula Davidson and Jim Meagher (NOAA); and Liisa Jalkanen (WMO). The most recent workshop took place in Maryland.

  13. Survival Sales Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paradiso, James; Stair, Kenneth

    Intended to provide insight into the dynamics of demand analysis, this paper presents an eight-step method for forecasting sales. Focusing on sales levels that must be achieved to enjoy targeted profits in favor of the usual approach of emphasizing how much will be sold within a given period, a sample situation is provided to illustrate this…

  14. Forecasting Scientific - Technical Information.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vvedenskiy, T. A.; And Others

    This document contains three selections from the Russian-language journal "Nauchno-Teknicheskaya Informatsiya," Moscow. The first article is "Documentation for Technical Forecasts" by T. A. Vvedenskiy (Series 1, Number 11, 1969, submitted for publication 9 July 1968, p3-5). This article deals with the transformation of the method of scientific…

  15. Forecasting Mass Communication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dailey, Joseph M.

    In sorting through predictions about future communications, it should be kept in mind that if one can think of a communication technology in the future, then that communication technology will stand a very good chance of becoming a reality. In other words, the forecasting of invention is not separate from invention itself. Secondly, the inventions…

  16. External Environmental Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lapin, Joel D.

    Representing current viewpoints of academics, futures experts, and social observers, this external environmental forecast presents projections and information of particular relevance to the future of Catonsville Community College. The following topics are examined: (1) population changes and implications for higher education; (2) state and local…

  17. Federal Forecasters Directory, 1995.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.

    This directory lists employees of the federal government who are involved in forecasting for policy formation and trend prediction purposes. Job title, agency, business address, phone or e-mail number, and specialty areas are listed for each employee. Employees are listed for the following agencies: (1) Bureau of the Census; (2) Bureau of Economic…

  18. Forecasting Credit Hours.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bivin, David; Rooney, Patrick Michael

    1999-01-01

    This study used Tobit analysis to estimate retention probabilities and credit hours at two universities. Tobit was judged as appropriate for this problem because it recognizes the lower bound of zero on credit hours and incorporates this bound into parameter estimates and forecasts. Models are estimated for credit hours in a single year and…

  19. Evolutionary Forecast Engines for Solar Meteorology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coimbra, C. F.

    2012-12-01

    A detailed comparison of non-stationary regression and stochastic learning methods based on k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) approaches is carried out in order to develop high-fidelity solar forecast engines for several time horizons of interest. A hybrid GA/ANN method emerges as the most robust stochastic learning candidate. The GA/ANN approach In general the following decisions need to be made when creating an ANN-based solar forecast model: the ANN architecture: number of layers, numbers of neurons per layer; the preprocessing scheme; the fraction and distribution between training and testing data, and the meteorological and radiometric inputs. ANNs are very well suited to handle multivariate forecasting models due to their overall flexibility and nonlinear pattern recognition abilities. However, the forecasting skill of ANNs depends on a new set of parameters to be optimized within the context of the forecast model, which is the selection of input variables that most directly impact the fidelity of the forecasts. In a data rich scenario where irradiation, meteorological, and cloud cover data are available, it is not always evident which variables to include in the model a priori. New variables can also arise from data preprocessing such as smoothing or spectral decomposition. One way to avoid time-consuming trial-and-error approaches that have limited chance to result in optimal ANN topology and input selection is to couple the ANN with some optimization algorithm that scans the solution space and "evolves" the ANN structure. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are well suited for this task. Results and Discussion The models built upon the historical data of 2009 and 2010 are applied to the 2011 data without modifications or retraining. We consider 3 solar variability seasons or periods, which are subsets of the total error evaluation data set. The 3 periods are defined based on the solar variability study as: - a high

  20. The Role of Short-Term Precursors in a Hybrid CME Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnston, J. C.; Kuchar, T. A.; Webb, D. F.

    2010-12-01

    The AFRL Space Weather Forecasting Laboratory (SWFL) was established as a testbed for data, models and techniques used to forecast significant space weather events. Most space weather originates at the Sun with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) being a significant source. When CMEs strike the Earth, they can cause auroras, geomagnetic storms and other hazardous conditions that can adversely affect space and grounds systems and personnel. The longer the advance warning of these phenomena, the more effective and efficient can be the mitigating steps taken by the military and civilian communities. Warning periods between 72 and 120 hours are needed, based on the required lead times necessary for satellite and air tasking orders. However, the magnetic properties and other characteristics of CMEs vary greatly and CMEs travel at variable speeds, taking from one to four days to reach Earth. Often the most geoeffective CMEs travel the fastest and a strictly deterministic approach will not meet the advance warning requirements in these cases. To remedy this, forecasters and system designers must incorporate climatology, persistence, recurrence, and precursory indicators to break the 72 hour barrier. With the long operational record of SOHO and other Solar/Heliospheric instruments we have data to work with for climatology, and with the advent of the Solar Mass Ejection Imager and the STEREO spacecraft, tracking of CMEs has been demonstrated as practical. However, indicators and precursors, minutes to hours before a CME launches, are currently elusive. This talk examines what such precursors might be and how they would fit into a Hybrid CME forecast.

  1. Software forecasting as it is really done: A study of JPL software engineers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Griesel, Martha Ann; Hihn, Jairus M.; Bruno, Kristin J.; Fouser, Thomas J.; Tausworthe, Robert C.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a summary of the results to date of a Jet Propulsion Laboratory internally funded research task to study the costing process and parameters used by internally recognized software cost estimating experts. Protocol Analysis and Markov process modeling were used to capture software engineer's forecasting mental models. While there is significant variation between the mental models that were studied, it was nevertheless possible to identify a core set of cost forecasting activities, and it was also found that the mental models cluster around three forecasting techniques. Further partitioning of the mental models revealed clustering of activities, that is very suggestive of a forecasting lifecycle. The different forecasting methods identified were based on the use of multiple-decomposition steps or multiple forecasting steps. The multiple forecasting steps involved either forecasting software size or an additional effort forecast. Virtually no subject used risk reduction steps in combination. The results of the analysis include: the identification of a core set of well defined costing activities, a proposed software forecasting life cycle, and the identification of several basic software forecasting mental models. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the results for current individual and institutional practices.

  2. Influenza forecasting in human populations: a scoping review.

    PubMed

    Chretien, Jean-Paul; George, Dylan; Shaman, Jeffrey; Chitale, Rohit A; McKenzie, F Ellis

    2014-01-01

    Forecasts of influenza activity in human populations could help guide key preparedness tasks. We conducted a scoping review to characterize these methodological approaches and identify research gaps. Adapting the PRISMA methodology for systematic reviews, we searched PubMed, CINAHL, Project Euclid, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for publications in English since January 1, 2000 using the terms "influenza AND (forecast* OR predict*)", excluding studies that did not validate forecasts against independent data or incorporate influenza-related surveillance data from the season or pandemic for which the forecasts were applied. We included 35 publications describing population-based (N = 27), medical facility-based (N = 4), and regional or global pandemic spread (N = 4) forecasts. They included areas of North America (N = 15), Europe (N = 14), and/or Asia-Pacific region (N = 4), or had global scope (N = 3). Forecasting models were statistical (N = 18) or epidemiological (N = 17). Five studies used data assimilation methods to update forecasts with new surveillance data. Models used virological (N = 14), syndromic (N = 13), meteorological (N = 6), internet search query (N = 4), and/or other surveillance data as inputs. Forecasting outcomes and validation metrics varied widely. Two studies compared distinct modeling approaches using common data, 2 assessed model calibration, and 1 systematically incorporated expert input. Of the 17 studies using epidemiological models, 8 included sensitivity analysis. This review suggests need for use of good practices in influenza forecasting (e.g., sensitivity analysis); direct comparisons of diverse approaches; assessment of model calibration; integration of subjective expert input; operational research in pilot, real-world applications; and improved mutual understanding among modelers and public health officials. PMID:24714027

  3. Statistical Short-Range Forecast Guidance for Cloud Ceilings Over the Shuttle Landing Facility

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.

    2001-01-01

    This report describes the results of the AMU's Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task. The cloud ceiling forecast over the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) is a critical element in determining whether a Shuttle should land. Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters find that ceilings at the SLF are challenging to forecast. The AMU was tasked to develop ceiling forecast equations to minimize the challenge. Studies in the literature that showed success in improving short-term forecasts of ceiling provided the basis for the AMU task. A 20-year record of cool-season hourly surface observations from stations in east-central Florida was used for the equation development. Two methods were used: an observations-based (OBS) method that incorporated data from all stations, and a persistence climatology (PCL) method used as the benchmark. Equations were developed for 1-, 2-, and 3-hour lead times at each hour of the day. A comparison between the two methods indicated that the OBS equations performed well and produced an improvement over the PCL equations. Therefore, the conclusion of the AMU study is that OBS equations produced more accurate forecasts than the PCL equations, and can be used in operations. They provide another tool with which to make the ceiling forecasts that are critical to safe Shuttle landings at KSC.

  4. A forecasting model of gaming revenues in Clark County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, B.; Bando, A.; Bassett, G.; Rosen, A.; Carlson, J.; Meenan, C.

    1992-04-01

    This paper describes the Western Area Gaming and Economic Response Simulator (WAGERS), a forecasting model that emphasizes the role of the gaming industry in Clark County, Nevada. It is designed to generate forecasts of gaming revenues in Clark County, whose regional economy is dominated by the gaming industry, an identify the exogenous variables that affect gaming revenues. This model will provide baseline forecasts of Clark County gaming revenues in order to assess changes in gaming related economic activity resulting from future events like the siting of a permanent high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain.

  5. Medium range flood forecasts at global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voisin, N.; Wood, A. W.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Wood, E. F.

    2006-12-01

    While weather and climate forecast methods have advanced greatly over the last two decades, this capability has yet to be evidenced in mitigation of water-related natural hazards (primarily floods and droughts), especially in the developing world. Examples abound of extreme property damage and loss of life due to floods in the underdeveloped world. For instance, more than 4.5 million people were affected by the July 2000 flooding of the Mekong River and its tributaries in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand. The February- March 2000 floods in the Limpopo River of Mozambique caused extreme disruption to that country's fledgling economy. Mitigation of these events through advance warning has typically been modest at best. Despite the above noted improvement in weather and climate forecasts, there is at present no system for forecasting of floods globally, notwithstanding that the potential clearly exists. We describe a methodology that is eventually intended to generate global flood predictions routinely. It draws heavily from the experimental North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and the companion Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) for development of nowcasts, and the University of Washington Experimental Hydrologic Prediction System to develop ensemble hydrologic forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models which serve both as nowcasts (and hence reduce the need for in situ precipitation and other observations in parts of the world where surface networks are critically deficient) and provide forecasts for lead times as long as fifteen days. The heart of the hydrologic modeling system is the University of Washington/Princeton University Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model. In the prototype (tested using retrospective data), VIC is driven globally up to the time of forecast with daily ERA40 precipitation (rescaled on a monthly basis to a station-based global climatology), ERA40 wind, and ERA40

  6. Oak Ridge Health Studies Phase 1 report, Volume 2: Part C, Dose Reconstruction Feasibility Study. Tasks 5: A summary of information concerning historical locations and activities of populations potentially affected by releases from the Oak Ridge Reservation

    SciTech Connect

    DaMassa, C.L.; Widner, T.E.

    1993-09-01

    A significant number of information sources have been identified that are relevant to historical locations and activities of populations potentially affected by releases from the Oak Ridge Reservation. The information that has been reviewed as part of this Task 5 investigation has shown that numerous residences and farms have historically been present near the ORR boundary and that a variety of land uses and recreational activities have been practiced. Based on this information alone, it would appear that many routes of off-site exposure could have been plausible. Most of the available published information addresses demographic and land use data on a regional or county-wide basis over fairly broad time periods. The information sources that are most readily available do not support direct evaluation of potential exposure pathways at specific geographic locations near the Oak Ridge facilities at specific points in time. A number of information sources have been identified that can provide demography and land use information more specific to locations and time periods that are identified to be of interest. Examples of data sources in this category include individual USGS topographic maps, aerial photographs, lowest-level census tract data, and interviews with long-time local residents. However, specific release events and periods of interest should be identified prior to attempts to collect more specific demographic or land use information for actual dose reconstruction.

  7. Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2010-01-01

    The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded

  8. Flood Warning and Forecasting System in Slovakia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leskova, Danica

    2016-04-01

    In 2015, it finished project Flood Warning and Forecasting System (POVAPSYS) as part of the flood protection in Slovakia till 2010. The aim was to build POVAPSYS integrated computerized flood forecasting and warning system. It took a qualitatively higher level of output meteorological and hydrological services in case of floods affecting large territorial units, as well as local flood events. It is further unfolding demands on performance and coordination of meteorological and hydrological services, troubleshooting observation, evaluation of data, fast communication, modeling and forecasting of meteorological and hydrological processes. Integration of all information entering and exiting to and from the project POVAPSYS provides Hydrological Flood Forecasting System (HYPOS). The system provides information on the current hydrometeorological situation and its evolution with the generation of alerts and notifications in case of exceeding predefined thresholds. HYPOS's functioning of the system requires flawless operability in critical situations while minimizing the loss of its key parts. HYPOS is a core part of the project POVAPSYS, it is a comprehensive software solutions based on a modular principle, providing data and processed information including alarms, in real time. In order to achieve full functionality of the system, in proposal, we have put emphasis on reliability, robustness, availability and security.

  9. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. PMID:26081307

  10. The forecaster's added value

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the

  11. Satellite freeze forecast system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    Provisions for back-up operations for the satellite freeze forecast system are discussed including software and hardware maintenance and DS/1000-1V linkage; troubleshooting; and digitized radar usage. The documentation developed; dissemination of data products via television and the IFAS computer network; data base management; predictive models; the installation of and progress towards the operational status of key stations; and digital data acquisition are also considered. The d addition of dew point temperature into the P-model is outlined.

  12. Uranium price forecasting methods

    SciTech Connect

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-03-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again.

  13. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  14. Multipurpose simulation systems for regional development forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Kostina, N.I.

    1995-09-01

    We examine the development of automaton-modeling multipurpose simulation systems as an efficient form of simulation software for MIS. Such systems constitute a single problem-oriented package of applications based on a general simulation model, which is equipped with a task source language, interaction tools, file management tools, and an output document editor. The simulation models are described by the method of probabilistic-automaton modeling, which ensures standard representation of models and standardization of the modeling algorithm. Examples of such systems include the demographic forecasting system DEPROG, the VOKON system for assessing the quality of consumer services in terms of free time, and the SONET system for servicing partially accessible customers. The development of computer-aided systems for production and economic control is now moving to the second state, namely operationalization of optimization and forecasting problems, whose solution may account for the main economic effect of MIS. Computation and information problems, which were the main focus of the first stage of MIS development, are thus acquiring the role of a source of information for optimization and forecasting problems in addition to their direct contribution to preparation and analysis of current production and economic information.

  15. Land-Breeze Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Wheeler, Mark M.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The nocturnal land breeze at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) is both operationally significant and challenging to forecast. The occurrence and timing of land breezes impact low-level winds, atmospheric stability, low temperatures, and fog development. Accurate predictions of the land breeze are critical for toxic material dispersion forecasts associated with space launch missions, since wind direction and low-level stability can change noticeably with the onset of a land breeze. This report presents a seven-year observational study of land breezes over east-central Florida from 1995 to 2001. This comprehensive analysis was enabled by the high-resolution tower observations over KSC/CCAFS. Five-minute observations of winds, temperature, and moisture along with 9 15-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler data were used to analyze specific land-breeze cases, while the tower data were used to construct a composite climatology. Utilities derived from this climatology were developed to assist forecasters in determining the land-breeze occurrence, timing, and movement based on predicted meteorological conditions.

  16. Global crop forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macdonald, R. B.; Hall, F. G.

    1980-01-01

    The needs for and remote sensing means of global crop forecasting are discussed, and key results of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) are presented. Current crop production estimates provided by foreign countries are shown often to be inadequate, and the basic elements of crop production forecasts are reviewed. The LACIE project is introduced as a proof-of-concept experiment designed to assimilate remote sensing technology, monitor global wheat production, evaluate key technical problems, modify the technique accordingly and demonstrate the feasibility of a global agricultural monitoring system. The global meteorological data, sampling and aggregation techniques, Landsat data analysis procedures and yield forecast procedures used in the experiment are outlined. Accuracy assessment procedures employed to evaluate LACIE technology performance are presented, and improvements in system efficiency and capacity during the three years of operation are pointed out. Results of LACIE estimates of Soviet, U.S. and Canadian wheat production are presented which demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the remote-sensing approach for global food and fiber monitoring.

  17. Kp forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, C.; Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.; Jen, J.; Carr, S.; Sibeck, D. G.; Costello, K.; Freeman, J.; Balikhin, M.; Bechtold, K.; Vandegriff, J.

    2004-12-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely when the predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. In order to satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) model that inputs nowcast Kp, solar wind parameters, and predict Kp 1 hr ahead; (2) model with the same input as (1) and predict Kp 4 hr ahead; and (3) model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predict Kp 1 hr ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor). Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. The evaluations of the models over 2 solar cycles, 1975-2001, show that solar wind driven models predict Kp more accurately during solar maximum than solar minimum. This result, as well as information dynamics analysis of Kp, suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics during solar minimum than solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and IMF.

  18. Kp forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.; Jen, J.; Meng, C.-I.; Sibeck, D. G.; Bechtold, K.; Freeman, J.; Costello, K.; Balikhin, M.; Takahashi, K.

    2005-04-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hour ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hour ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hour ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor). Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Information dynamics analysis of Kp suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

  19. Kp forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.; Meng, C.; Takahashi, K.

    2005-05-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hr ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor.) Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that, while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Information dynamics analysis of Kp, suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

  20. Forecasting geomagnetic activity indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schofield, J.; Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.

    2007-12-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp and Dst forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hr ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor.) Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that, while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Similar Dst models were developed. Information dynamics analysis of Kp, suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

  1. A quality assessment of the MARS crop yield forecasting system for the European Union

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Velde, Marijn; Bareuth, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Timely information on crop production forecasts can become of increasing importance as commodity markets are more and more interconnected. Impacts across large crop production areas due to (e.g.) extreme weather and pest outbreaks can create ripple effects that may affect food prices and availability elsewhere. The MARS Unit (Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS), DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission, has been providing forecasts of European crop production levels since 1993. The operational crop production forecasting is carried out with the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (M-CYFS). The M-CYFS is used to monitor crop growth development, evaluate short-term effects of anomalous meteorological events, and provide monthly forecasts of crop yield at national and European Union level. The crop production forecasts are published in the so-called MARS bulletins. Forecasting crop yield over large areas in the operational context requires quality benchmarks. Here we present an analysis of the accuracy and skill of past crop yield forecasts of the main crops (e.g. soft wheat, grain maize), throughout the growing season, and specifically for the final forecast before harvest. Two simple benchmarks to assess the skill of the forecasts were defined as comparing the forecasts to 1) a forecast equal to the average yield and 2) a forecast using a linear trend established through the crop yield time-series. These reveal a variability in performance as a function of crop and Member State. In terms of production, the yield forecasts of 67% of the EU-28 soft wheat production and 80% of the EU-28 maize production have been forecast superior to both benchmarks during the 1993-2013 period. In a changing and increasingly variable climate crop yield forecasts can become increasingly valuable - provided they are used wisely. We end our presentation by discussing research activities that could contribute to this goal.

  2. Understanding Farmers’ Forecast Use from Their Beliefs, Values, Social Norms, and Perceived Obstacles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Qi; Pytlik Zillig, Lisa M.; Lynne, Gary D.; Tomkins, Alan J.; Waltman, William J.; Hayes, Michael J.; Hubbard, Kenneth G.; Artikov, Ikrom; Hoffman, Stacey J.; Wilhite, Donald A.

    2006-09-01

    Although the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts is continuously improving and new information retrieved from climate data is adding to the understanding of climate variation, use of the forecasts and climate information by farmers in farming decisions has changed little. This lack of change may result from knowledge barriers and psychological, social, and economic factors that undermine farmer motivation to use forecasts and climate information. According to the theory of planned behavior (TPB), the motivation to use forecasts may arise from personal attitudes, social norms, and perceived control or ability to use forecasts in specific decisions. These attributes are examined using data from a survey designed around the TPB and conducted among farming communities in the region of eastern Nebraska and the western U.S. Corn Belt. There were three major findings: 1) the utility and value of the forecasts for farming decisions as perceived by farmers are, on average, around 3.0 on a 0 7 scale, indicating much room to improve attitudes toward the forecast value. 2) The use of forecasts by farmers to influence decisions is likely affected by several social groups that can provide “expert viewpoints” on forecast use. 3) A major obstacle, next to forecast accuracy, is the perceived identity and reliability of the forecast makers. Given the rapidly increasing number of forecasts in this growing service business, the ambiguous identity of forecast providers may have left farmers confused and may have prevented them from developing both trust in forecasts and skills to use them. These findings shed light on productive avenues for increasing the influence of forecasts, which may lead to greater farming productivity. In addition, this study establishes a set of reference points that can be used for comparisons with future studies to quantify changes in forecast use and influence.

  3. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    PubMed Central

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Method In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012–2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. Results According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (−€9,367 million), France

  4. Phantosmia as a meteorological forecaster.

    PubMed

    Aiello, S R; Hirsch, A R

    2013-09-01

    In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia forecasted the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to forecast the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted. PMID:23456373

  5. Gender Differences in Implicit and Explicit Memory for Affective Passages

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burton, Leslie A.; Rabin, Laura; Vardy, Susan Bernstein.; Frohlich, Jonathan; Wyatt, Gwinne; Dimitri, Diana; Constante, Shimon; Guterman, Elan

    2004-01-01

    Thirty-two participants were administered 4 verbal tasks, an Implicit Affective Task, an Implicit Neutral Task, an Explicit Affective Task, and an Explicit Neutral Task. For the Implicit Tasks, participants were timed while reading passages aloud as quickly as possible, but not so quickly that they did not understand. A target verbal passage was…

  6. Machine Learning of Maritime Fog Forecast Rules.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tag, Paul M.; Peak, James E.

    1996-05-01

    In recent years, the field of artificial intelligence has contributed significantly to the science of meteorology, most notably in the now familiar form of expert systems. Expert systems have focused on rules or heuristics by establishing, in computer code, the reasoning process of a weather forecaster predicting, for example, thunderstorms or fog. In addition to the years of effort that goes into developing such a knowledge base is the time-consuming task of extracting such knowledge and experience from experts. In this paper, the induction of rules directly from meteorological data is explored-a process called machine learning. A commercial machine learning program called C4.5, is applied to a meteorological problem, forecasting maritime fog, for which a reliable expert system has been previously developed. Two detasets are used: 1) weather ship observations originally used for testing and evaluating the expert system, and 2) buoy measurements taken off the coast of California. For both datasets, the rules produced by C4.5 are reasonable and make physical sense, thus demonstrating that an objective induction approach can reveal physical processes directly from data. For the ship database, the machine-generated rules are not as accurate as those from the expert system but are still significantly better than persistence forecasts. For the buoy data, the forecast accuracies are very high, but only slightly superior to persistence. The results indicate that the machine learning approach is a viable tool for developing meteorological expertise, but only when applied to reliable data with sufficient cases of known outcome. In those instances when such databases are available, the use of machine learning can provide useful insight that otherwise might take considerable human analysis to produce.

  7. Forecasting Zakat collection using artificial neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sy Ahmad Ubaidillah, Sh. Hafizah; Sallehuddin, Roselina

    2013-04-01

    'Zakat', "that which purifies" or "alms", is the giving of a fixed portion of one's wealth to charity, generally to the poor and needy. It is one of the five pillars of Islam, and must be paid by all practicing Muslims who have the financial means (nisab). 'Nisab' is the minimum level to determine whether there is a 'zakat' to be paid on the assets. Today, in most Muslim countries, 'zakat' is collected through a decentralized and voluntary system. Under this voluntary system, 'zakat' committees are established, which are tasked with the collection and distribution of 'zakat' funds. 'Zakat' promotes a more equitable redistribution of wealth, and fosters a sense of solidarity amongst members of the 'Ummah'. The Malaysian government has established a 'zakat' center at every state to facilitate the management of 'zakat'. The center has to have a good 'zakat' management system to effectively execute its functions especially in the collection and distribution of 'zakat'. Therefore, a good forecasting model is needed. The purpose of this study is to develop a forecasting model for Pusat Zakat Pahang (PZP) to predict the total amount of collection from 'zakat' of assets more precisely. In this study, two different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models using two different learning algorithms are developed; Back Propagation (BP) and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM). Both models are developed and compared in terms of their accuracy performance. The best model is determined based on the lowest mean square error and the highest correlations values. Based on the results obtained from the study, BP neural network is recommended as the forecasting model to forecast the collection from 'zakat' of assets for PZP.

  8. The Effect of "Massed" Task Repetitions on Complexity, Accuracy and Fluency: Does It Transfer to a New Task?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ahmadian, Mohammad Javad

    2011-01-01

    To date, research results suggest that task repetition positively affects oral task performance. However, researchers have not yet shown the extension of the benefits of repeating the same task to performance of a new task. This article first provides an overview of the currently available research findings on task repetition and then presents the…

  9. Forecasting Istanbul monthly temperature by multivariate partial least square

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ertaç, Mefharet; Firuzan, Esin; Solum, Şenol

    2015-07-01

    Weather forecasting, especially for temperature, has always been a popular subject since it affects our daily life and always includes uncertainty as statistics does. The goals of this study are (a) to forecast monthly mean temperature by benefitting meteorological variables like temperature, humidity and rainfall; and (b) to improve the forecast ability by evaluating the forecasting errors depending upon the parameter changes and local or global forecasting methods. Approximately 100 years of meteorological data from 54 automatic meteorology observation stations of Istanbul that is the mega city of Turkey are analyzed to infer about the meteorological behaviour of the city. A new partial least square (PLS) forecasting technique based on chaotic analysis is also developed by using nonlinear time series and variable selection methods. The proposed model is also compared with artificial neural networks (ANNs), which model nonlinearly the relation between inputs and outputs by working neurons like human brain. Ordinary least square (OLS), PLS and ANN methods are used for nonlinear time series forecasting in this study. Major findings are the chaotic nature of the meteorological data of Istanbul and the best performance values of the proposed PLS model.

  10. Precipitation forecasts and their uncertainty as input into hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobold, M.; Sušelj, K.

    2005-10-01

    Torrential streams and fast runoff are characteristic of most Slovenian rivers and extensive damage is caused almost every year by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia. Rainfall-runoff models which are tools for runoff calculation can be used for flood forecasting. In Slovenia, the lag time between rainfall and runoff is only a few hours and on-line data are used only for now-casting. Predicted precipitation is necessary in flood forecasting some days ahead. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) model gives general forecasts several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with the ALADIN/SI model are available for two days ahead. Combining the weather forecasts with the information on catchment conditions and a hydrological forecasting model can give advance warning of potential flooding notwithstanding a certain degree of uncertainty in using precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. Analysis of the sensitivity of the hydrological model to the rainfall error has shown that the deviation in runoff is much larger than the rainfall deviation. Therefore, verification of predicted precipitation for large precipitation events was performed with the ECMWF model. Measured precipitation data were interpolated on a regular grid and compared with the results from the ECMWF model. The deviation in predicted precipitation from interpolated measurements is shown with the model bias resulting from the inability of the model to predict the precipitation correctly and a bias for horizontal resolution of the model and natural variability of precipitation.

  11. Forecast Inaccuracies in Power Plant Projects From Project Managers' Perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanabria, Orlando

    Guided by organizational theory, this phenomenological study explored the factors affecting forecast preparation and inaccuracies during the construction of fossil fuel-fired power plants in the United States. Forecast inaccuracies can create financial stress and uncertain profits during the project construction phase. A combination of purposeful and snowball sampling supported the selection of participants. Twenty project managers with over 15 years of experience in power generation and project experience across the United States were interviewed within a 2-month period. From the inductive codification and descriptive analysis, 5 themes emerged: (a) project monitoring, (b) cost control, (c) management review frequency, (d) factors to achieve a precise forecast, and (e) factors causing forecast inaccuracies. The findings of the study showed the factors necessary to achieve a precise forecast includes a detailed project schedule, accurate labor cost estimates, monthly project reviews and risk assessment, and proper utilization of accounting systems to monitor costs. The primary factors reported as causing forecast inaccuracies were cost overruns by subcontractors, scope gaps, labor cost and availability of labor, and equipment and material cost. Results of this study could improve planning accuracy and the effective use of resources during construction of power plants. The study results could contribute to social change by providing a framework to project managers to lessen forecast inaccuracies, and promote construction of power plants that will generate employment opportunities and economic development.

  12. Improving High-resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with Upgraded Kain-Fritsch Cumulus Scheme

    EPA Science Inventory

    High-resolution weather forecasting is affected by many aspects, i.e. model initial conditions, subgrid-scale cumulus convection and cloud microphysics schemes. Recent 12km grid studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have identified the importance of inco...

  13. Hydrological Forecasting Practices in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Fernando; Paiva, Rodrigo; Collischonn, Walter; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2016-04-01

    This work brings a review on current hydrological and flood forecasting practices in Brazil, including the main forecasts applications, the different kinds of techniques that are currently being employed and the institutions involved on forecasts generation. A brief overview of Brazil is provided, including aspects related to its geography, climate, hydrology and flood hazards. A general discussion about the Brazilian practices on hydrological short and medium range forecasting is presented. Detailed examples of some hydrological forecasting systems that are operational or in a research/pre-operational phase using the large scale hydrological model MGB-IPH are also presented. Finally, some suggestions are given about how the forecasting practices in Brazil can be understood nowadays, and what are the perspectives for the future.

  14. Managing Multiple Tasks in Complex, Dynamic Environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freed, Michael; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Sketchy planners are designed to achieve goals in realistically complex, time-pressured, and uncertain task environments. However, the ability to manage multiple, potentially interacting tasks in such environments requires extensions to the functionality these systems typically provide. This paper identifies a number of factors affecting how interacting tasks should be prioritized, interrupted, and resumed, and then describes a sketchy planner called APEX that takes account of these factors when managing multiple tasks.

  15. Ensemble postprocessing for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bentzien, S.; Friederichs, P.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation is one of the most difficult weather variables to predict in hydrometeorological applications. In order to assess the uncertainty inherent in deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP), meteorological services around the globe develop ensemble prediction systems (EPS) based on high-resolution NWP systems. With non-hydrostatic model dynamics and without parameterization of deep moist convection, high-resolution NWP models are able to describe convective processes in more detail and provide more realistic mesoscale structures. However, precipitation forecasts are still affected by displacement errors, systematic biases and fast error growth on small scales. Probabilistic guidance can be achieved from an ensemble setup which accounts for model error and uncertainty of initial and boundary conditions. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) provides such an ensemble system based on the German-focused limited-area model COSMO-DE. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2.8 km, COSMO-DE is the convection-permitting high-resolution part of the operational model chain at DWD. The COSMO-DE-EPS consists of 20 realizations of COSMO-DE, driven by initial and boundary conditions derived from 4 global models and 5 perturbations of model physics. Ensemble systems like COSMO-DE-EPS are often limited with respect to ensemble size due to the immense computational costs. As a consequence, they can be biased and exhibit insufficient ensemble spread, and probabilistic forecasts may be not well calibrated. In this study, probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts are derived from COSMO-DE-EPS and evaluated at more than 1000 rain gauges located all over Germany. COSMO-DE-EPS is a frequently updated ensemble system, initialized 8 times a day. We use the time-lagged approach to inexpensively increase ensemble spread, which results in more reliable forecasts especially for extreme precipitation events. Moreover, we will show that statistical

  16. Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spessa, A. C.; Field, R. D.; Pappenberger, F.; Langner, A.; Englhart, S.; Weber, U.; Stockdale, T.; Siegert, F.; Kaiser, J. W.; Moore, J.

    2015-03-01

    Large-scale fires occur frequently across Indonesia, particularly in the southern region of Kalimantan and eastern Sumatra. They have considerable impacts on carbon emissions, haze production, biodiversity, health, and economic activities. In this study, we demonstrate that severe fire and haze events in Indonesia can generally be predicted months in advance using predictions of seasonal rainfall from the ECMWF System 4 coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Based on analyses of long, up-to-date series observations on burnt area, rainfall, and tree cover, we demonstrate that fire activity is negatively correlated with rainfall and is positively associated with deforestation in Indonesia. There is a contrast between the southern region of Kalimantan (high fire activity, high tree cover loss, and strong non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire) and the central region of Kalimantan (low fire activity, low tree cover loss, and weak, non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire). The ECMWF seasonal forecast provides skilled forecasts of burnt and fire-affected area with several months lead time explaining at least 70% of the variance between rainfall and burnt and fire-affected area. Results are strongly influenced by El Niño years which show a consistent positive bias. Overall, our findings point to a high potential for using a more physical-based method for predicting fires with several months lead time in the tropics rather than one based on indexes only. We argue that seasonal precipitation forecasts should be central to Indonesia's evolving fire management policy.

  17. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  18. Solar Indices Forecasting Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henney, Carl John; Shurkin, Kathleen; Arge, Charles; Hill, Frank

    2016-05-01

    Progress to forecast key space weather parameters using SIFT (Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) with the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model is highlighted in this presentation. Using a magnetic flux transport model, ADAPT, we estimate the solar near-side field distribution that is used as input into empirical models for predicting F10.7(solar 10.7 cm, 2.8 GHz, radio flux), the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, and selected bands of solar far ultraviolet (FUV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. Input to the ADAPT model includes the inferred photospheric magnetic field from the NISP ground-based instruments, GONG & VSM. Besides a status update regarding ADAPT and SIFT models, we will summarize the findings that: 1) the sum of the absolute value of strong magnetic fields, associated with sunspots, is shown to correlate well with the observed daily F10.7 variability (Henney et al. 2012); and 2) the sum of the absolute value of weak magnetic fields, associated with plage regions, is shown to correlate well with EUV and FUV irradiance variability (Henney et al. 2015). This work utilizes data produced collaboratively between Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and the National Solar Observatory (NSO). The ADAPT model development is supported by AFRL. The input data utilized by ADAPT is obtained by NISP (NSO Integrated Synoptic Program). NSO is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA), Inc., under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF). The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data service, utilized by the ADAPT/SIFT F10.7 forecasting model, is operated by the National Research Council of Canada and National Resources Canada, with the support of the Canadian Space Agency.

  19. The Affective Regulation of Cognitive Priming

    PubMed Central

    Storbeck, Justin; Clore, Gerald L.

    2008-01-01

    Semantic and affective priming are classic effects observed in cognitive and social psychology, respectively. We discovered that affect regulates such priming effects. In Experiment 1, positive and negative moods were induced prior to one of three priming tasks; evaluation, categorization, or lexical decision. As predicted, positive affect led to both affective priming (evaluation task) and semantic priming (category and lexical decision tasks). However, negative affect inhibited such effects. In Experiment 2, participants in their natural affective state completed the same priming tasks as in Experiment 1. As expected, affective priming (evaluation task) and category priming (categorization and lexical decision tasks) were observed in such resting affective states. Hence, we conclude that negative affect inhibits semantic and affective priming. These results support recent theoretical models, which suggest that positive affect promotes associations among strong and weak concepts, and that negative affect impairs such associations (Kuhl, 2000; Clore & Storbeck, 2006). PMID:18410195

  20. Attention in a multi-task environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andre, Anthony D.; Heers, Susan T.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments used a low fidelity multi-task simulation to investigate the effects of cue specificity on task preparation and performance. Subjects performed a continuous compensatory tracking task and were periodically prompted to perform one of several concurrent secondary tasks. The results provide strong evidence that subjects enacted a strategy to actively divert resources towards secondary task preparation only when they had specific information about an upcoming task to be performed. However, this strategy was not as much affected by the type of task cued (Experiment 1) or its difficulty level (Experiment 2). Overall, subjects seemed aware of both the costs (degraded primary task tracking) and benefits (improved secondary task performance) of cue information. Implications of the present results for computational human performance/workload models are discussed.

  1. Accuracy of short-term sea ice drift forecasts using a coupled ice-ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schweiger, Axel J.; Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-12-01

    Arctic sea ice drift forecasts of 6 h-9 days for the summer of 2014 are generated using the Marginal Ice Zone Modeling and Assimilation System (MIZMAS); the model is driven by 6 h atmospheric forecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2). Forecast ice drift speed is compared to drifting buoys and other observational platforms. Forecast positions are compared with actual positions 24 h-8 days since forecast. Forecast results are further compared to those from the forecasts generated using an ice velocity climatology driven by multiyear integrations of the same model. The results are presented in the context of scheduling the acquisition of high-resolution images that need to follow buoys or scientific research platforms. RMS errors for ice speed are on the order of 5 km/d for 24-48 h since forecast using the sea ice model compared with 9 km/d using climatology. Predicted buoy position RMS errors are 6.3 km for 24 h and 14 km for 72 h since forecast. Model biases in ice speed and direction can be reduced by adjusting the air drag coefficient and water turning angle, but the adjustments do not affect verification statistics. This suggests that improved atmospheric forecast forcing may further reduce the forecast errors. The model remains skillful for 8 days. Using the forecast model increases the probability of tracking a target drifting in sea ice with a 10 km × 10 km image from 60 to 95% for a 24 h forecast and from 27 to 73% for a 48 h forecast.

  2. Study on the Method of the Technology Forecasting Based on Conjoint Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miao, Jing-Yi; Liu, Cheng-Yu; Sun, Zhen-Hua

    We discuss an application of conjoint analysis in technology forecasting, summarize basic operation steps of conjoint analysis, and give a stimulant example of technology forecasting. In this example, we consider five factors that will affect the emergence of a new technology. These factors have investing demand in a new technology, potential market value of a new technology, realizable difficulty of a new technology, supporting degree of relative technology to a new technology, and the competitive power of a new technology with original technology. Technology development has a discontinuity. With discontinuity, we cannot forecast the future of technology development, based on the current trend of technology development. As using quantitative methods to make forecasting, we assumed that current trends of technology development hold a fixed law, so those quantitative methods cannot forecast the discontinuity of technology development. Some subjective forecasting methods have huge improvement in technological discontinuity forecasting. The improvement is that forecaster's subjective judgments and capability are embodied in forecasting. But this method has two inherent defects: one is the lack of design ability, which makes this method susceptible to the influence of organizer and forecasting, and the other is that while facing numerous forecasters, the forecasting data are often difficult to explain and analyze; we also have difficultly in making a synthesized judgment. A subjective and synthesized judgment of technology development is similar to economical utility, thus we could apply the measure of colony's utility to improve the appropriateness and reliability of subjective forecasting method. Using conjoint analysis, we can judge the colony's utility accurately, because the datum that we use in analysis comes from the subjective judgments of forecasters to various fields of technical development, but the influence of the random error can be dispelled by using

  3. Forecast Mekong: 2011 update

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    In 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton joined with the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam in launching the Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with the Lower Mekong countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Part of the Lower Mekong Initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey's Forecast Mekong project is engaging the United States in scientific research relevant to environmental issues in the Lower Mekong River countries and is staying the course in support of the Mekong Nations with a suite of new projects for 2011.

  4. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  5. Weather Forecasting Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Weather forecasters are usually very precise in reporting such conditions as temperature, wind velocity and humidity. They also provide exact information on barometric pressure at a given moment, and whether the barometer is "rising" or "falling"- but not how rapidly or how slowly it is rising or falling. Until now, there has not been available an instrument which measures precisely the current rate of change of barometric pressure. A meteorological instrument called a barograph traces the historical ups and downs of barometric pressure and plots a rising or falling curve, but, updated every three hours, it is only momentarily accurate at each updating.

  6. Implicit and Explicit Memory for Affective Passages in Temporal Lobectomy Patients

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burton, Leslie A.; Rabin, Laura; Vardy, Susan Bernstein; Frohlich, Jonathan; Porter, Gwinne Wyatt; Dimitri, Diana; Cofer, Lucas; Labar, Douglas

    2008-01-01

    Eighteen temporal lobectomy patients (9 left, LTL; 9 right, RTL) were administered four verbal tasks, an Affective Implicit Task, a Neutral Implicit Task, an Affective Explicit Task, and a Neutral Explicit Task. For the Affective and Neutral Implicit Tasks, participants were timed while reading aloud passages with affective or neutral content,…

  7. Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotz, S.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography. These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi

  8. Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotz, S. P.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

    2012-12-01

    The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC). These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as

  9. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 3 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 3 compares flight plans developed on the Suitland forecast with actual data observed by the aircraft (and averaged over 10 degree segments). The results show that the average difference between the forecast and observed wind speed is 9 kts. without considering direction, and the average difference in the component of the forecast wind parallel to the direction of the observed wind is 13 kts. - both indicating that the Suitland forecast underestimates the wind speeds. The Root Mean Square (RMS) vector error is 30.1 kts. The average absolute difference in direction between the forecast and observed wind is 26 degrees and the temperature difference is 3 degree Centigrade. These results indicate that the forecast model as well as the verifying analysis used to develop comparison flight plans in Tasks 1 and 2 is a limiting factor and that the average potential fuel savings or penalty are up to 3.6 percent depending on the direction of flight.

  10. A hydrometeorological forecasting approach for basins with complex flow regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarkadoulas, Akis; Mantesi, Konstantina; Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koussis, Antonis; Mazi, Aikaterini; Katsanos, Demetris; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2015-04-01

    The combined use of weather forecasting models and hydrological models in flood risk estimations is an established technique, with several successful applications worldwide. However, most known hydrometeorological forecasting systems have been established in large rivers with perpetual flow. Experience from small- and medium-scale basins, which are often affected by flash floods, is very limited. In this work we investigate the perspectives of hydrometeorological forecasting, by emphasizing two issues: (a) which modelling approach can credibly represent the complex dynamics of basins with highly variable runoff (intermittent or ephemeral); and (b) which transformation of point-precipitation forecasts provides the most reliable estimations of spatially aggregated data, to be used as inputs to semi-distributed hydrological models. Using as case studies the Sarantapotamos river basin, in Eastern Greece (145 km2), and the Nedontas river basin, in SW Peloponnese (120 km2), we demonstrate the advantages of continuous simulation through the HYDROGEIOS model. This employs conjunctive modelling of surface and groundwater flows and their interactions (percolation, infiltration, underground losses), which are key processes in river basins characterized by significantly variability of runoff. The model was calibrated against hourly flow data at two and three hydrometric stations, respectively, for a 3-year period (2011-2014). Next we attempted to reproduce the most intense flood events of that period, by substituting observed rainfall by forecast scenarios. In this respect, we used consecutive point forecasts of a 6-hour lead time, provided by the numerical weather prediction model WRF (Advanced Research version), dynamically downscaled from the ~1° forecast of GSF-NCEP/NOAA successively first to ~18 km, then to ~6 km and ultimately at the horizontal grid resolution of 2x2 km2. We examined alternative spatial integration approaches, using as reference the rainfall stations

  11. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  12. The Ofidia Project: a Retrospective Fire Danger Forecast Analysis in Mediterranean Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sirca, C.; Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Mirto, L.; Fiore, S.; Aloisio, G.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    OFIDIA (Operational FIre Danger preventIon plAtform) is a two-year project started in May 2013 funded by the European Territorial Cooperation Programme Greece Italy (2007 - 2013). The project aims to improve the operational capability of forecasting, preventing, and fighting forest wildfires, and enhance the cross-border cooperation for fire danger assessment. More specifically, OFIDIA aims at developing an operational fire danger prevention platform, with the ability for near real-time fire danger forecast and fire behaviour analysis in Apulia (Italy) and Epirus (Greece) regions to help forest fires services in the effective prevention and response to forecasted danger.One of the preliminary activities of the project was the evaluation of fire danger performances by analysing the relationship between the predicted daily fire danger and observed fire activity (number of fires and area burned). To achieve this task, fire activity and danger patterns were characterised and their relationships were investigated for the period 2000-2012. The Italian Forest Service (CFS, Corpo Forestale dello Stato) provided fire statistics at NUT03 level. The data were homogenized and uncertainties corrected, and then burned area and number of fires were analysed according to the main fire regime characteristics (seasonality, fire return interval, fire incidence, fire size distribution, etc). Then, three fire danger models (FFWI, FWI, and IFI) were selected and computed starting from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) forecast.Results showed a high inter- and intra-annual variability in fire activiy, also considering the different type of affected vegetation. As for other Mediterranean areas, a smaller number of large fires caused a high proportion of burned area. Furthermore, fire activity showed significant correlations with the outputs obtained by the applied models. High relationships were found between

  13. Social Indicators and Social Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnston, Denis F.

    The paper identifies major types of social indicators and explains how they can be used in social forecasting. Social indicators are defined as statistical measures relating to major areas of social concern and/or individual well being. Examples of social indicators are projections, forecasts, outlook statements, time-series statistics, and…

  14. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  15. Forecasting School District Fiscal Health.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Curtis A.

    1986-01-01

    This paper's goal is to redefine fiscal health by broadening its predictive function and to determine which fiscal indicators are useful for forecasting fiscal health for one, two, and three years. Results indicate that school district fiscal health forecasts are potentially great planning tools for local for local decision makers. Includes 11…

  16. The pioneers of weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, Susan

    2016-01-01

    In The Weather Experiment author Peter Moore takes us on a compelling journey through the early history of weather forecasting, bringing to life the personalities, lives and achievements of the men who put in place the building blocks required for forecasts to be possible.

  17. Application of satellite-based rainfall and medium range meteorological forecast in real-time flood forecasting in the Mahanadi River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nanda, Trushnamayee; Beria, Harsh; Sahoo, Bhabagrahi; Chatterjee, Chandranath

    2016-04-01

    Increasing frequency of hydrologic extremes in a warming climate call for the development of reliable flood forecasting systems. The unavailability of meteorological parameters in real-time, especially in the developing parts of the world, makes it a challenging task to accurately predict flood, even at short lead times. The satellite-based Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provides an alternative to the real-time precipitation data scarcity. Moreover, rainfall forecasts by the numerical weather prediction models such as the medium term forecasts issued by the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are promising for multistep-ahead flow forecasts. We systematically evaluate these rainfall products over a large catchment in Eastern India (Mahanadi River basin). We found spatially coherent trends, with both the real-time TRMM rainfall and ECMWF rainfall forecast products overestimating low rainfall events and underestimating high rainfall events. However, no significant bias was found for the medium rainfall events. Another key finding was that these rainfall products captured the phase of the storms pretty well, but suffered from consistent under-prediction. The utility of the real-time TRMM and ECMWF forecast products are evaluated by rainfall-runoff modeling using different artificial neural network (ANN)-based models up to 3-days ahead. Keywords: TRMM; ECMWF; forecast; ANN; rainfall-runoff modeling

  18. Forecasting Bz at Earth - an Operational Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzo, V. J.

    2014-12-01

    observation - this is not at all a straightforward task and real progress in this area hinges upon sensible and honest evaluation forecast performance.

  19. Statistical Earthquake Focal Mechanism Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    The new whole Earth focal mechanism forecast, based on the GCMT catalog, has been created. In the present forecast, the sum of normalized seismic moment tensors within 1000 km radius is calculated and the P- and T-axes for the focal mechanism are evaluated on the basis of the sum. Simultaneously we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms. This average angle shows tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The method was originally proposed by Kagan and Jackson (1994, JGR). Recent interest by CSEP and GEM has motivated some improvements, particularly to extend the previous forecast to polar and near-polar regions. The major problem in extending the forecast is the focal mechanism calculation on a spherical surface. In the previous forecast as our average focal mechanism was computed, it was assumed that longitude lines are approximately parallel within 1000 km radius. This is largely accurate in the equatorial and near-equatorial areas. However, when one approaches the 75 degree latitude, the longitude lines are no longer parallel: the bearing (azimuthal) difference at points separated by 1000 km reach about 35 degrees. In most situations a forecast point where we calculate an average focal mechanism is surrounded by earthquakes, so a bias should not be strong due to the difference effect cancellation. But if we move into polar regions, the bearing difference could approach 180 degrees. In a modified program focal mechanisms have been projected on a plane tangent to a sphere at a forecast point. New longitude axes which are parallel in the tangent plane are corrected for the bearing difference. A comparison with the old 75S-75N forecast shows that in equatorial regions the forecasted focal mechanisms are almost the same, and the difference in the forecasted focal mechanisms rotation angle is close to zero. However, though the forecasted focal mechanisms are similar

  20. Affective processing requires awareness.

    PubMed

    Lähteenmäki, Mikko; Hyönä, Jukka; Koivisto, Mika; Nummenmaa, Lauri

    2015-04-01

    Studies using backward masked emotional stimuli suggest that affective processing may occur outside visual awareness and imply primacy of affective over semantic processing, yet these experiments have not strictly controlled for the participants' awareness of the stimuli. Here we directly compared the primacy of affective versus semantic categorization of biologically relevant stimuli in 5 experiments (n = 178) using explicit (semantic and affective discrimination; Experiments 1-3) and implicit (semantic and affective priming; Experiments 4-5) measures. The same stimuli were used in semantic and affective tasks. Visual awareness was manipulated by varying exposure duration of the masked stimuli, and subjective level of stimulus awareness was measured after each trial using a 4-point perceptual awareness scale. When participants reported no awareness of the stimuli, semantic and affective categorization were at chance level and priming scores did not differ from zero. When participants were even partially aware of the stimuli, (a) both semantic and affective categorization could be performed above chance level with equal accuracy, (b) semantic categorization was faster than affective categorization, and (c) both semantic and affective priming were observed. Affective categorization speed was linearly dependent on semantic categorization speed, suggesting dependence of affective processing on semantic recognition. Manipulations of affective and semantic categorization tasks revealed a hierarchy of categorization operations beginning with basic-level semantic categorization and ending with superordinate level affective categorization. We conclude that both implicit and explicit affective and semantic categorization is dependent on visual awareness, and that affective recognition follows semantic categorization. PMID:25559654

  1. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning: Summary report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This summary report discusses the results of each of the four major tasks of the study. Task 1 compared airline flight plans based on operational forecasts to plans based on the verifying analyses and found that average fuel savings of 1.2 to 2.5 percent are possible with improved forecasts. Task 2 consisted of similar comparisons but used a model developed for the FAA by SRI International that simulated the impact of ATc diversions on the flight plans. While parts of Task 2 confirm the Task I findings, inconsistency with other data and the known impact of ATC suggests that other Task 2 findings are the result of errors in the model. Task 3 compares segment weather data from operational flight plans with the weather actually observed by the aircraft and finds the average error could result in fuel burn penalties (or savings) of up to 3.6 percent for the average 8747 flight. In Task 4 an in-depth analysis of the weather forecast for the 33 days included in the study finds that significant errors exist on 15 days. Wind speeds in the area of maximum winds are underestimated by 20 to 50 kts., a finding confirmed in the other three tasks.

  2. Adaptation to (non)valent task disturbance.

    PubMed

    Kunde, Wilfried; Augst, Susanne; Kleinsorge, Thomas

    2012-12-01

    The cognitive system adapts to disturbances caused by task-irrelevant information. For example, interference due to irrelevant spatial stimulation (e.g., the spatial Simon effect) typically diminishes right after a spatially incongruent event. These adaptation effects reflect processes that help to overcome the impact of task-irrelevant information. Interference with (or interruption of) task processing can also result from valent (i.e., positive or negative) stimuli, such as in the "affective Simon" task. In the present study, we tested whether the resolution of valence-based task disturbances generalizes to the resolution of other cognitive (spatial) types of interference, and vice versa. Experiments 1 and 2 explored the interplay of adaptation effects triggered by spatial and affective interference. Incongruent spatial information modified the spatial Simon effect but not affective interference effects, whereas incongruent affective information modified affective interference effects to some extent, but not spatial Simon effects. In Experiment 3, we investigated the interplay of adaptation effects triggered by spatial interference and by the interruption of task processing from valent information that did not overlap with the main task ("emotional Stroop" effect). Again we observed domain-specific adaptation for the spatial Simon effect but found no evidence for cross-domain modulations. We assume that the processes used to resolve task disturbance from irrelevant affective and spatial information operate in largely independent manners. PMID:22936069

  3. Probabilistic forecasts based on radar rainfall uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liguori, S.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    The potential advantages resulting from integrating weather radar rainfall estimates in hydro-meteorological forecasting systems is limited by the inherent uncertainty affecting radar rainfall measurements, which is due to various sources of error [1-3]. The improvement of quality control and correction techniques is recognized to play a role for the future improvement of radar-based flow predictions. However, the knowledge of the uncertainty affecting radar rainfall data can also be effectively used to build a hydro-meteorological forecasting system in a probabilistic framework. This work discusses the results of the implementation of a novel probabilistic forecasting system developed to improve ensemble predictions over a small urban area located in the North of England. An ensemble of radar rainfall fields can be determined as the sum of a deterministic component and a perturbation field, the latter being informed by the knowledge of the spatial-temporal characteristics of the radar error assessed with reference to rain-gauges measurements. This approach is similar to the REAL system [4] developed for use in the Southern-Alps. The radar uncertainty estimate can then be propagated with a nowcasting model, used to extrapolate an ensemble of radar rainfall forecasts, which can ultimately drive hydrological ensemble predictions. A radar ensemble generator has been calibrated using radar rainfall data made available from the UK Met Office after applying post-processing and corrections algorithms [5-6]. One hour rainfall accumulations from 235 rain gauges recorded for the year 2007 have provided the reference to determine the radar error. Statistics describing the spatial characteristics of the error (i.e. mean and covariance) have been computed off-line at gauges location, along with the parameters describing the error temporal correlation. A system has then been set up to impose the space-time error properties to stochastic perturbations, generated in real-time at

  4. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, Phase II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2008-01-01

    Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Light Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) created a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display Systems (MIDDS) to indicate the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input.

  5. Hydrological model calibration for enhancing global flood forecast skill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirpa, Feyera A.; Beck, Hylke E.; Salamon, Peter; Thielen-del Pozo, Jutta

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems play a key role in flood risk reduction, and their effectiveness is directly linked to streamflow forecast skill. The skill of a streamflow forecast is affected by several factors; among them are (i) model errors due to incomplete representation of physical processes and inaccurate parameterization, (ii) uncertainty in the model initial conditions, and (iii) errors in the meteorological forcing. In macro scale (continental or global) modeling, it is a common practice to use a priori parameter estimates over large river basins or wider regions, resulting in suboptimal streamflow estimations. The aim of this work is to improve flood forecast skill of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS; www.globalfloods.eu), a grid-based forecasting system that produces flood forecast unto 30 days lead, through calibration of the distributed hydrological model parameters. We use a combination of in-situ and satellite-based streamflow data for automatic calibration using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. We will present the calibrated global parameter maps and report the forecast skill improvements achieved. Furthermore, we discuss current challenges and future opportunities with regard to global-scale early flood warning systems.

  6. Regime-based forecast performance during WFIP 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freedman, J. M.; Zack, J. W.; Manobianco, J.; Beaucage, P.; Rojowsky, K.

    2015-12-01

    The principal objectives of the first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP 1) were to improve short-term (0 - 6 hr) wind power forecasts through the assimilation of targeted remote sensing and surface observations with an enhanced model ensemble forcast system. The WFIP 1 field deployment/modeling campaign in the Southern Study Area (SSA--encompassing most of central and western Texas) ran from August 2011 through Septembe 2012. This ensured observational data and model output for all representative weather regimes affecting the SSA. Cold and warm season regimes featured synoptic-scale, convective, and low-level jet (LLJ) phenomena that are responsible for the favorable wind resource in the SSA, and also posed a challenge for assigning specific explanations for the observed forecast improvements (e.g. additional observations, model improvements, or a combination of both). LLJs produced hourly capacity factors exceeding 80% in aggregated wind farm power production, while synoptic-scale systems were responsible for the largest ramp events observed during WFIP 1. Accurately forecasting convective phenomena (such as outflow boundaries) during WFIP 1 was at times problematic. Here, we present regime-based and phenomenological-related forecast performance results for WFIP 1. These performance metrics suggest future research pathways that will facilitate improvements in operational wind power forecasts.

  7. Decadal-Scale Forecasting of Climate Drivers for Marine Applications.

    PubMed

    Salinger, J; Hobday, A J; Matear, R J; O'Kane, T J; Risbey, J S; Dunstan, P; Eveson, J P; Fulton, E A; Feng, M; Plagányi, É E; Poloczanska, E S; Marshall, A G; Thompson, P A

    2016-01-01

    Climate influences marine ecosystems on a range of time scales, from weather-scale (days) through to climate-scale (hundreds of years). Understanding of interannual to decadal climate variability and impacts on marine industries has received less attention. Predictability up to 10 years ahead may come from large-scale climate modes in the ocean that can persist over these time scales. In Australia the key drivers of climate variability affecting the marine environment are the Southern Annular Mode, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, each has phases that are associated with different ocean circulation patterns and regional environmental variables. The roles of these drivers are illustrated with three case studies of extreme events-a marine heatwave in Western Australia, a coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and flooding in Queensland. Statistical and dynamical approaches are described to generate forecasts of climate drivers that can subsequently be translated to useful information for marine end users making decisions at these time scales. Considerable investment is still needed to support decadal forecasting including improvement of ocean-atmosphere models, enhancement of observing systems on all scales to support initiation of forecasting models, collection of important biological data, and integration of forecasts into decision support tools. Collaboration between forecast developers and marine resource sectors-fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, biodiversity management, infrastructure-is needed to support forecast-based tactical and strategic decisions that reduce environmental risk over annual to decadal time scales. PMID:27573049

  8. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

    2009-01-01

    Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to create a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that indicates the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. The tool creates a graphic depicting the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on the average of the upper level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 n mi standoff circles centered at the location of interest, as well as one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 sector width based on a previous AMU study that determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 of the upper-level wind direction. The AMU was then tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). SMG later requested the tool be updated to provide more flexibility and quicker access to model data. This presentation describes the work performed by the AMU to transition the tool into AWIPS, as well as the subsequent improvements made to the tool.

  9. Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menut, L.; Bessagnet, B.

    2010-01-01

    The atmospheric composition is a societal issue and, following new European directives, its forecast is now recommended to quantify the air quality. It concerns both gaseous and particles species, identified as potential problems for health. In Europe, numerical systems providing daily air quality forecasts are numerous and, mostly, operated by universities. Following recent European research projects (GEMS, PROMOTE), an organization of the air quality forecast is currently under development. But for the moment, many platforms exist, each of them with strengths and weaknesses. This overview paper presents all existing systems in Europe and try to identify the main remaining gaps in the air quality forecast knowledge. As modeling systems are now able to reasonably forecast gaseous species, and in a lesser extent aerosols, the future directions would concern the use of these systems with ensemble approaches and satellite data assimilation. If numerous improvements were recently done on emissions and chemistry knowledge, improvements are still needed especially concerning meteorology, which remains a weak point of forecast systems. Future directions will also concern the use of these forecast tools to better understand and quantify the air pollution impact on health.

  10. Forecasts of geomagnetic secular variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wardinski, Ingo

    2014-05-01

    We attempt to forecast the geomagnetic secular variation based on stochastic models, non-parametric regression and singular spectrum analysis of the observed past field changes. Although this modelling approach is meant to be phenomenological, it may provide some insight into the mechanisms underlying typical time scales of geomagnetic field changes. We follow two strategies to forecast secular variation: Firstly, by applying time series models, and secondly, by using time-dependent kinematic models of the advected secular variation. These forecasts can span decades, to longer periods. This depends on the length of the past observations used as input, with different input models leading to different details in the forecasts. These forecasts become more uncertain over longer forecasting periods. One appealing reason is the disregard of magnetic diffusion in the kinematic modelling. But also the interactions of unobservable small scale core field with core flow at all scale unsettle the kinematic forecasting scheme. A further (obvious) reason is that geomagnetic secular variation can not be mimicked by linear time series models as the dynamo action itself is highly non-linear. Whether the dynamo action can be represented by a simple low-dimensional system requires further analysis.

  11. Pilot based frameworks for Weather Research Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganapathi, Dinesh Prasanth

    The Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) domain consists of complex workflows that demand the use of Distributed Computing Infrastructure (DCI). Weather forecasting requires that weather researchers use different set of initial conditions and one or a combination of physics models on the same set of input data. For these type of simulations an ensemble based computing approach becomes imperative. Most DCIs have local job-schedulers that have no smart way of dealing with the execution of an ensemble type of computational problem as the job-schedulers are built to cater to the bare essentials of resource allocation. This means the weather scientists have to submit multiple jobs to the job-scheduler. In this dissertation we use Pilot-Job based tools to decouple work-load submission and resource allocation therefore streamlining the complex workflows in Weather Research and Forecasting domain and reduce their overall time to completion. We also achieve location independent job execution, data movement, placement and processing. Next, we create the necessary enablers to run an ensemble of tasks bearing the capability to run on multiple heterogeneous distributed computing resources there by creating the opportunity to minimize the overall time consumed in running the models. Our experiments show that the tools developed exhibit very good, strong and weak scaling characteristics. These results bear the potential to change the way weather researchers are submitting traditional WRF jobs to the DCIs by giving them a powerful weapon in their arsenal that can exploit the combined power of various heterogeneous DCIs that could otherwise be difficult to harness owing to interoperability issues.

  12. The Application of the Pso Based BP Network in Short-Term Load Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhaoyu, Pian; Shengzhu, Li; Hong, Zhang; Nan, Zhang

    The load forecast level in power system is a important symbol to measure operations and management of power system. This paper summarized the research conditions of the short-term load forecasting using artificial neural network method, and analyzed the characteristics of electrical load and factors of influencing power load forecasting accuracy. The paper used the particle swarm optimization neural network method in short-term load forecasting of power grid. Based on the analysis history loads in California power system, we established the load forecasting model considering the various affecting factors, and normalized the input load, meanwhile quantified date, atmosphere and other factors. The example showed that the model of neural network based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm can improve the prediction precision and speed, it's performance prediction is superior to the model based on BP neural network load forecasting.

  13. Forecasting annual aboveground net primary production in the intermountain west

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    For many land manager’s annual aboveground net primary production, or plant growth, is a key factor affecting business success, profitability and each land manager's ability to successfully meet land management objectives. The strategy often utilized for forecasting plant growth is to assume every y...

  14. Characterizing the uncertainty in river stage forecasts conditional on point forecast values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Jun; Liao, Gong-Yi; Gebremichael, Mekonnen; Shedd, Robert; Vallee, David R.

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainty information about river level forecast is as important as the forecast itself for forecast users. This paper presents a flexible, statistical approach that processes deterministic forecasts into probabilistic forecasts. The model is a smoothly changing conditional distribution of river stage given point forecast and other information available, such as lagged river level at the time of forecasting. The parametric distribution is a four-parameter skewt distribution, with each parameter modeled as a smooth function of the point forecast and the 1 day ago observed river level. The model was applied to 9 years of daily 6 h lead forecasts and 24 h lead forecasts in the warm season and their matching observations at the Plymouth station on the Pemigewasset River in New Hampshire. For each point forecast, the conditional distribution and resulting prediction intervals provide uncertainty information that are potentially very important to forecast users and algorithm developers in decision making and improvement of forecast quality.

  15. Application of quantitative precipitation forecasting and precipitation ensemble prediction for hydrological forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, P.; Tie-Yuan, S.; Zhi-Yuan, Y.; Jun-Chao, W.

    2015-05-01

    The precipitation in the forecast period influences flood forecasting precision, due to the uncertainty of the input to the hydrological model. Taking the ZhangHe basin as the example, the research adopts the precipitation forecast and ensemble precipitation forecast product of the AREM model, uses the Xin Anjiang hydrological model, and tests the flood forecasts. The results show that the flood forecast result can be clearly improved when considering precipitation during the forecast period. Hydrological forecast based on Ensemble Precipitation prediction gives better hydrological forecast information, better satisfying the need for risk information for flood prevention and disaster reduction, and has broad development opportunities.

  16. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  17. Method Forecasts Global Energy Substitution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chemical and Engineering News, 1975

    1975-01-01

    Describes a model developed to forecast energy demands and determine trends in demand for primary fuels. The energy model essentially considers primary energy sources as competing commodities in a market. (MLH)

  18. Practical Meteor Stream Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooke, William J.; Suggs, Robert M.

    2003-01-01

    Inspired by the recent Leonid meteor storms, researchers have made great strides in our ability to predict enhanced meteor activity. However, the necessary calibration of the meteor stream models with Earth-based ZHRs (Zenith Hourly Rates) has placed emphasis on the terran observer and meteor activity predictions are published in such a manner to reflect this emphasis. As a consequence, many predictions are often unusable by the satellite community, which has the most at stake and the greatest interest in meteor forecasting. This paper suggests that stream modelers need to pay more attention to the needs of this community and publish not just durations and times of maxima for Earth, but everything needed to characterize the meteor stream in and out of the plane of the ecliptic, which, at a minimum, consists of the location of maximum stream density (ZHR) and the functional form of the density decay with distance from this point. It is also suggested that some of the terminology associated with meteor showers may need to be more strictly defined in order to eliminate the perception of crying wolf by meteor scientists. An outburst is especially problematic, as it usually denotes an enhancement by a factor of 2 or more to researchers, but conveys the notion of a sky filled with meteors to satellite operators and the public. Experience has also taught that predicted ZHRs often lead to public disappointment, as these values vastly overestimate what is seen.

  19. A model for statistical forecasting of menu item demand.

    PubMed

    Wood, S D

    1977-03-01

    Foodservice planning necessarily begins with a forecast of demand. Menu item demand forecasts are needed to make food item production decisions, work force and facility acquisition plans, and resource allocation and scheduling decisions. As these forecasts become more accurate, the tasks of adjusting original plans are minimized. Forecasting menu item demand need no longer be the tedious and inaccurate chore which is so prevalent in hospital food management systems today. In most instances, data may be easily collected as a by-product of existing activities to support accurate statistical time series predictions. Forecasts of meal tray count, based on a rather sophisticated model, multiplied by average menu item preference percentages can provide accurate predictions of demand. Once the forecasting models for tray count have been developed, simple worksheets can be prepared to facilitate manual generation of the forecasts on a continuing basis. These forecasts can then be recorded on a worksheet that reflects average patient preference percentages (of tray count), so that the product of the percentages with the tray count prediction produces menu item predictions on the same worksheet. As the patient preference percentages stabilize, data collection can be reduced to the daily recording of tray count and one-step-ahead forecase errors for each meal with a periodic gathering of patient preference percentages to update and/or verify the existing date. The author is more thoroughly investigating the cost/benefit relationship of such a system through the analysis of new empirical data. It is clear that the system offers potential for reducing costs at the diet category or total tray count levels. It is felt that these benefits transfer down to the meal item level as well as offer ways of generating more accurate predictions, with perhaps only minor (if any) labor time increments. Research in progress will delineate expected savings more explicitly. The approach

  20. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  1. Application of seasonal forecasting for the drought forecasting in Catalonia (Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Zaragoza, Albert; Aznar, Blanca; Cabot, Jordi

    2010-05-01

    Low flows and droughts are a hydro-climatic feature in Spain (Alvarez et al, 2008). The construction of dams as water reservoirs has been a usual tool to manage the water resources for agriculture and livestock, industries and human needs (MIMAM, 2000, 2007). The last drought that has affected Spain has last four years in Catalonia, from 2004 to the spring of 2008, and it has been particularly hard as a consequence of the precipitation deficit in the upper part of the rivers that nourish the main dams. This problem increases when the water scarcity affects very populated areas, like big cities. The Barcelona city, with more than 3.000.000 people concentrated in the downtown and surrounding areas is a clear example. One of the objectives of the SOSTAQUA project is to improve the water resources management in real time, in order to improve the water supply in the cities in the framework of sustainable development. The work presented here deals with the application of seasonal forecasting to improve the water management in Catalonia, particularly in drought conditions. A seasonal prediction index has been created as a linear combination of climatic data and the ECM4 prediction that has been validated too. This information has implemented into a hydrological model and it has been applied to the last drought considering the real water demands of population, as well as to the water storage evolution in the last months. It has been found a considerable advance in the forecasting of water volume into reservoirs. The advantage of this methodology is that it only requires seasonal forecasting free through internet. Due to the fact that the principal rivers that supply water to Barcelona, birth on the Pyrenees and Pre-Pyrenees region, the analysis and precipitation forecasting is focused on this region (Zaragoza, 2008).

  2. Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuhlthan, A. R.; Vermuri, R. S.

    1978-01-01

    Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling.

  3. HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Alfieri, L.; Cloke, H. L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Balabanova, S.; Daňhelka, J.; Vogelbacher, A.; Salamon, P.; Carrasco, I.; Cabrera-Tordera, A. J.; Corzo-Toscano, M.; Garcia-Padilla, M.; Garcia-Sanchez, R. J.; Ardilouze, C.; Jurela, S.; Terek, B.; Csik, A.; Casey, J.; Stankūnavičius, G.; Ceres, V.; Sprokkereef, E.; Stam, J.; Anghel, E.; Vladikovic, D.; Alionte Eklund, C.; Hjerdt, N.; Djerv, H.; Holmberg, F.; Nilsson, J.; Nyström, K.; Sušnik, M.; Hazlinger, M.; Holubecka, M.

    2013-11-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  4. Concurrent Cognitive Task Modulates Coordination Dynamics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pellecchia, Geraldine L.; Shockley, Kevin; Turvey, M. T.

    2005-01-01

    Does a concurrent cognitive task affect the dynamics of bimanual rhythmic coordination? In-phase coordination was performed under manipulations of phase detuning and movement frequency and either singly or in combination with an arithmetic task. Predicted direction-specific shifts in stable relative phase from 0 degrees due to detuning and…

  5. "My legs affect me a lot. … I can no longer walk to the forest to fetch firewood": challenges related to health and the performance of daily tasks for older women in a high HIV context.

    PubMed

    Schatz, Enid; Gilbert, Leah

    2014-01-01

    Compromised health negatively impacts older persons' ability to participate in expected social roles. Researchers have published little empirical work, however, to explore these issues in HIV endemic African settings. Qualitative interviews with 30 women, aged 60-plus, in rural South Africa, provide insight into the relationship between health and daily activities, with attention to the fulfillment of social roles. In this poor HIV endemic context, older women make connections between their compromised health and their (lack of) capacity to perform the daily tasks that they view as expected of them. By expanding the conceptualization of health to include the capacity to achieve the expectations and perform the tasks expected of one, we better understand how and why health and performance of daily activities are so intricately linked in the minds of respondents. This also provides a starting point for thinking about the social and structural support needed by older persons in these settings, especially as HIV erodes familial supports. PMID:24628607

  6. Fields, Flares, And Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucheron, L.; Al-Ghraibah, Amani; McAteer, J.; Cao, H.; Jackiewicz, J.; McNamara, B.; Voelz, D.; Calabro, B.; DeGrave, K.; Kirk, M.; Madadi, A.; Petsov, A.; Taylor, G.

    2011-05-01

    Solar active regions are the source of many energetic and geo-effective events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Understanding how these complex source regions evolve and produce these events is of fundamental importance, not only to solar physics, but also to the demands of space weather forecasting. We propose to investigate the physical properties of active region magnetic fields using fractal-, gradient-, neutral line-, emerging flux-, wavelet- and general image-based techniques, and to correlate them to solar activity. The combination of these projects with solarmonitor.org and the international Max Millenium Campaign presents an opportunity for accurate and timely flare predictions for the first time. Many studies have attempted to relate solar flares to their concomitant magnetic field distributions. However, a consistent, causal relationship between the magnetic field on the photosphere and the production of solar flares is unknown. Often the local properties of the active region magnetic field - critical in many theories of activity - are lost in the global definition of their diagnostics, in effect smoothing out variations that occur on small spatial scales. Mindful of this, our overall goal is to create measures that are sensitive to both the global and the small-scale nature of energy storage and release in the solar atmosphere in order to study solar flare prediction. This set of active region characteristics will be automatically explored for discriminating features through the use of feature selection methods. Such methods search a feature space while optimizing a criterion - the prediction of a flare in this case. The large size of the datasets used in this project make it well suited for an exploration of a large feature space. This work is funded through a New Mexico State University Interdisciplinary Research Grant.

  7. Human-computer dialogue: Interaction tasks and techniques. Survey and categorization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Foley, J. D.

    1983-01-01

    Interaction techniques are described. Six basic interaction tasks, requirements for each task, requirements related to interaction techniques, and a technique's hardware prerequisites affective device selection are discussed.

  8. Predictability and forecast of the MJO: Beyond the RMM index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vintzileos, A.; Gottschalck, J.

    2013-12-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is among the most important sources of predictability at subseasonal time scales. It modulates the statistics of tropical cyclones across multiple ocean basins during summer and can alter the mid-latitude circulation resulting in substantial pattern changes and in some cases leading to extreme events. The MJO has also been shown to affect the reliability of weather forecasts over Europe and weekly precipitation amounts over poorly irrigated areas such as India during the monsoon. Benefits resulting from reliable operational forecasts of the MJO cannot be over-emphasized. Thus far, even a theoretical explanation of the MJO has been elusive due to the lack of comprehensive observations. An international field campaign CINDY2011 was designed to aid this issue. The Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) was the US component of this campaign. The Climate Program Office of NOAA funded NOAA/CPC and the University of Maryland-ESSIC to provide operational monitoring and forecast support to the campaign. A series of MJO events occurred during DYNAMO making it a very successful observational campaign. In this paper we present a synthesis of experience gained on understanding the MJO using data from the NCEP coupled and uncoupled model forecasts and DYNAMO observations. We first compare the evolution of observed large scale Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) for each of the DYNAMO MJO events to the evolution of forecast OLR. We show that for each of these events the GFS was systematically suppressing near equatorial convection as the enhanced convective phase of the MJO was propagating from the western to the eastern Indian Ocean. This equatorial suppression of convection was leading to an unrealistically subduing of the forecast MJO. We then try to shed light on this forecast behavior by focusing on differences between DYNAMO station observations and GFS forecasts. We finally compare forecast skill between the uncoupled GFS and coupled CFS during

  9. The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winsemius, H. C.; Dutra, E.; Engelbrecht, F. A.; Archer Van Garderen, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Werner, M. G. F.

    2013-12-01

    Subsistence farming in Southern Africa is vulnerable to extreme weather conditions. The yield of rain-fed agriculture depends largely on rainfall-related factors such as total seasonal rainfall, anomalous onsets and lengths of the rainy season and the frequency of occurrence of dry spells. Livestock, in turn, may be seriously impacted by climatic stress with, for example, exceptionally hot days, affecting condition, reproduction, vulnerability to pests and pathogens and, ultimately, morbidity and mortality. Climate change may affect the frequency and severity of extreme weather conditions, impacting on the success of subsistence farming. A potentially interesting adaptation measure comprises the timely forecasting and warning of such extreme events, combined with mitigation measures that allow farmers to prepare for the event occurring. This paper investigates how the frequency of extreme events may change in the future due to climate change over southern Africa and, in more detail, the Limpopo basin using a set of climate change projections from several regional climate model downscalings. Furthermore the paper assesses the predictability of these indicators by seasonal meteorological forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system. The focus is on the frequency of dry spells as well as the frequency of heat stress conditions expressed in the Temperature Heat Index. In areas where their frequency of occurrence increases in the future and predictability is found, seasonal forecasts will gain importance in the future as they can more often lead to informed decision making to implement mitigation measures. The multi-model climate projections suggest that the frequency of dry spells is not likely to increase substantially, whereas there is a clear and coherent signal among the models, of an increase in the frequency of heat stress conditions by the end of the century. The skill analysis of the seasonal forecast

  10. Task Definition: A Motivating Task = Eager Learners!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jansen, Barbara A.

    2005-01-01

    Teachers who design meaningful and developmentally appropriate tasks will motivate their students to engage in the content and as students work through the Big6 process, interacting with the content, they learn and practice information and technology skills. A valuable task definition technique is to develop questions that students in each group…

  11. Forecasting the 2013-2014 influenza season using Wikipedia.

    PubMed

    Hickmann, Kyle S; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y

    2015-05-01

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed. PMID:25974758

  12. Forecasting the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Using Wikipedia

    PubMed Central

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.

    2015-01-01

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed. PMID:25974758

  13. FUSION++: A New Data Assimilative Model for Electron Density Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bust, G. S.; Comberiate, J.; Paxton, L. J.; Kelly, M.; Datta-Barua, S.

    2014-12-01

    There is a continuing need within the operational space weather community, both civilian and military, for accurate, robust data assimilative specifications and forecasts of the global electron density field, as well as derived RF application product specifications and forecasts obtained from the electron density field. The spatial scales of interest range from a hundred to a few thousand kilometers horizontally (synoptic large scale structuring) and meters to kilometers (small scale structuring that cause scintillations). RF space weather applications affected by electron density variability on these scales include navigation, communication and geo-location of RF frequencies ranging from 100's of Hz to GHz. For many of these applications, the necessary forecast time periods range from nowcasts to 1-3 hours. For more "mission planning" applications, necessary forecast times can range from hours to days. In this paper we present a new ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) specification and forecast model being developed at JHU/APL based upon the well-known data assimilation algorithms Ionospheric Data Assimilation Four Dimensional (IDA4D) and Estimating Model Parameters from Ionospheric Reverse Engineering (EMPIRE). This new forecast model, "Forward Update Simple IONosphere model Plus IDA4D Plus EMPIRE (FUSION++), ingests data from observations related to electron density, winds, electric fields and neutral composition and provides improved specification and forecast of electron density. In addition, the new model provides improved specification of winds, electric fields and composition. We will present a short overview and derivation of the methodology behind FUSION++, some preliminary results using real observational sources, example derived RF application products such as HF bi-static propagation, and initial comparisons with independent data sources for validation.

  14. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  15. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  16. Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2014-04-01

    Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future shallow (depth 0-70 km) earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress, and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density as a function of location, magnitude and focal mechanism. In previous publications we reported forecasts of 0.5° spatial resolution, covering the latitude range from -75° to +75°, based on the Global Central Moment Tensor earthquake catalogue. In the new forecasts we have improved the spatial resolution to 0.1° and the latitude range from pole to pole. Our focal mechanism estimates require distance-weighted combinations of observed focal mechanisms within 1000 km of each gridpoint. Simultaneously, we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms, using the method of Kagan & Jackson proposed in 1994. This average angle reveals the level of tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The procedure becomes problematical where longitude lines are not approximately parallel, and where shallow earthquakes are so sparse that an adequate sample spans very large distances. North or south of 75°, the azimuths of points 1000 km away may vary by about 35°. We solved this problem by calculating focal mechanisms on a plane tangent to the Earth's surface at each forecast point, correcting for the rotation of the longitude lines at the locations of earthquakes included in the averaging. The corrections are negligible between -30° and +30° latitude, but outside that band uncorrected rotations can be significantly off. Improved forecasts at 0.5° and 0.1° resolution are posted at http://eq.ess.ucla.edu/kagan/glob_gcmt_index.html.

  17. Effects of Task Index Variations On Transfer of Training Criteria. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mirabella, Angelo; Wheaton, George R.

    The concluding series of a research program designed to validate a battery of task indexes for use in forecasting the effectiveness of training devices is described. Phase I collated 17 task indexes and applied them to sonar training devices, while in Phase II the 17 index battery was validated, using skill acquisition measures as criteria.…

  18. Hierarchical approach to forecasting recurrent solar wind streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shugay, Yu. S.; Veselovsky, I. S.; Seaton, D. B.; Berghmans, D.

    2011-12-01

    The hierarchical approach to predicting quasi-stationary, high-speed solar wind (SW) streams is described. This approach integrates various types of data into a single forecasting system by means of an ensemble of experts. The input data included the daily values of the coronal hole areas, which were calculated from the ultraviolet images of the Sun, and the speed of the SW streams during the previous solar rotations. The coronal hole areas were calculated from the images taken by the SWAP instrument aboard the PROBA2 satellite in the spectral interval centered at a wavelength of 17.4 nm and by the AIA instrument aboard the SDO spacecraft in the interval of wavelengths centered at 19.3 and 17.1 nm. The forecast was based on the data for 2010, corresponding to the rising phase of the 24th solar cycle. On the first hierarchical level, a few simple model estimates were obtained for the speed of the SW streams from the input data of each type. On the second level of hierarchy, the final 3 day ahead forecast of the SW velocity was formulated on the basis of the obtained estimates. The proposed hierarchical approach improves the accuracy of forecasting the SW velocity. In addition, in such a method of prediction, the data gaps in the records of one instrument do not crucially affect the final result of forecasting of the system as a whole.

  19. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, M. Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI . Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL . Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. )

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  20. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, M. ||; Hwang, R.

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  1. Pollen Forecast and Dispersion Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costantini, Monica; Di Giuseppe, Fabio; Medaglia, Carlo Maria; Travaglini, Alessandro; Tocci, Raffaella; Brighetti, M. Antonia; Petitta, Marcello

    2014-05-01

    The aim of this study is monitoring, mapping and forecast of pollen distribution for the city of Rome using in-situ measurements of 10 species of common allergenic pollens and measurements of PM10. The production of daily concentration maps, associated to a mobile phone app, are innovative compared to existing dedicated services to people who suffer from respiratory allergies. The dispersal pollen is one of the most well-known causes of allergic disease that is manifested by disorders of the respiratory functions. Allergies are the third leading cause of chronic disease and it is estimated that tens millions of people in Italy suffer from it. Recent works reveal that during the last few years there was a progressive increase of affected subjects, especially in urban areas. This situation may depend: on the ability to transport of pollutants, on the ability to react between pollutants and pollen and from a combination of other irritants, existing in densely populated and polluted urban areas. The methodology used to produce maps is based on in-situ measurements time series relative to 2012, obtained from networks of air quality and pollen stations in the metropolitan area of Rome. The monitoring station aerobiological of University of Rome "Tor Vergata" is located at the Department of Biology. The instrument used to pollen monitoring is a volumetric sampler type Hirst (Hirst 1952), Model 2000 VPPS Lanzoni; the data acquisition is carried out as reported in Standard UNI 11008:2004 - "Qualità dell'aria - Metodo di campionamento e conteggio dei granuli pollinici e delle spore fungine aerodisperse" - the protocol that describes the procedure for measuring of the concentration of pollen grains and fungal spores dispersed into the atmosphere, and reported in the "Manuale di gestione e qualità della R.I.M.A" (Travaglini et. al. 2009). All 10 allergenic pollen are monitored since 1996. At Tor Vergata university is also operating a meteorological station (SP2000, CAE

  2. CME Ensemble Forecasting - A Primer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzo, V. J.; de Koning, C. A.; Cash, M. D.; Millward, G. H.; Biesecker, D. A.; Codrescu, M.; Puga, L.; Odstrcil, D.

    2014-12-01

    SWPC has been evaluating various approaches for ensemble forecasting of Earth-directed CMEs. We have developed the software infrastructure needed to support broad-ranging CME ensemble modeling, including composing, interpreting, and making intelligent use of ensemble simulations. The first step is to determine whether the physics of the interplanetary propagation of CMEs is better described as chaotic (like terrestrial weather) or deterministic (as in tsunami propagation). This is important, since different ensemble strategies are to be pursued under the two scenarios. We present the findings of a comprehensive study of CME ensembles in uniform and structured backgrounds that reveals systematic relationships between input cone parameters and ambient flow states and resulting transit times and velocity/density amplitudes at Earth. These results clearly indicate that the propagation of single CMEs to 1 AU is a deterministic process. Thus, the accuracy with which one can forecast the gross properties (such as arrival time) of CMEs at 1 AU is determined primarily by the accuracy of the inputs. This is no tautology - it means specifically that efforts to improve forecast accuracy should focus upon obtaining better inputs, as opposed to developing better propagation models. In a companion paper (deKoning et al., this conference), we compare in situ solar wind data with forecast events in the SWPC operational archive to show how the qualitative and quantitative findings presented here are entirely consistent with the observations and may lead to improved forecasts of arrival time at Earth.

  3. Advances in Solar Power Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haupt, S. E.; Kosovic, B.; Drobot, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a blended SunCast Solar Power Forecasting system. This system includes several short-range nowcasting models and improves upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the "Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting." The nowcasting models being built include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, multiple sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models with cloud assimilation. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol estimation methods. These new physical models are incorporated into WRF-Solar, which is then integrated with publically available NWP models via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system as well as the Nowcast Blender to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority commercial solar farms. The improvements will be described and results to date discussed.

  4. Automation of energy demand forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siddique, Sanzad

    Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.

  5. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

  6. Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

    2015-12-01

    When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

  7. Components of a Model for Forecasting Future Status of Selected Social Indicators. Department of Education Project on Social Indicators. Technical Report No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collazo, Andres; And Others

    Since a great number of variables influence future educational outcomes, forecasting possible trends is a complex task. One such model, the cross-impact matrix, has been developed. The use of this matrix in forecasting future values of social indicators of educational outcomes is described. Variables associated with educational outcomes are used…

  8. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 4

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 4 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 4 uses flight plan segment wind and temperature differences as indicators of dates and geographic areas for which significant forecast errors may have occurred. An in-depth analysis is then conducted for the days identified. The analysis show that significant errors occur in the operational forecast on 15 of the 33 arbitrarily selected days included in the study. Wind speeds in an area of maximum winds are underestimated by at least 20 to 25 kts. on 14 of these days. The analysis also show that there is a tendency to repeat the same forecast errors from prog to prog. Also, some perceived forecast errors from the flight plan comparisons could not be verified by visual inspection of the corresponding National Meteorological Center forecast and analyses charts, and it is likely that they are the result of weather data interpolation techniques or some other data processing procedure in the airlines' flight planning systems.

  9. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  10. Smooth Sailing for Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

  11. Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

  12. Forecasting improves for polar lows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thanks to a 3-year research program recently concluded by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute in Oslo, Norwegian meteorologists are better able to forecast the intense low-pressure phenomena that threaten the safety of the country's coastal areas during the winter season.During the course of the program, meteorologists developed and tested “objective forecasting methods,” as well as a numerical model suitable for small-scale weather phenomena. They also improved the processing of satellite data, and gained experience with the observing systems used, according to a bulletin prepared by the institute. The monitoring and forecasting systems should improve as the observation network improves and as the mesoscale numerical model is refined, explained Arne Grammeltvedt, director of the institute.

  13. Functional Task Test (FTT)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bloomberg, Jacob J.; Mulavara, Ajitkumar; Peters, Brian T.; Rescheke, Millard F.; Wood, Scott; Lawrence, Emily; Koffman, Igor; Ploutz-Snyder, Lori; Spiering, Barry A.; Feeback, Daniel L.; Platts, Steven H.; Stenger, Michael B.; Lee, Stuart M.C.; Arzeno, Natalia; Feiveson, Alan H.; Ryder, Jeffrey; Garcia, Yamil; Guilliams, Mark E.

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Functional Task Test (FTT), an interdisciplinary testing regimen that has been developed to evaluate astronaut postflight functional performance and related physiological changes. The objectives of the project are: (1) to develop a set of functional tasks that represent critical mission tasks for the Constellation Program, (2) determine the ability to perform these tasks after space flight, (3) Identify the key physiological factors that contribute to functional decrements and (4) Use this information to develop targeted countermeasures.

  14. GEM: Statistical weather forecasting procedure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, R. G.

    1983-01-01

    The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

  15. Acquisition forecast: Fiscal year 1995

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1995-01-01

    This volume includes projections of all anticipated FY95, and beyond, NASA contract actions above $25,000 that small and small disadvantaged businesses may be able to perform under direct contract with the government or as subcontractors. The forecast consolidates anticipated procurements at each NASA center into an agencywide report, with the aim of increasing industries' advance knowledge of NASA requirements and enhancing competition in contracting. Each center forecast report is divided into three principal categories of procurement: research and development, services, and supplies and equipment.

  16. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  17. Launching Complex Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Kara J.; Shahan, Emily C.; Gibbons, Lynsey K.; Cobb, Paul A.

    2012-01-01

    Mathematics lessons can take a variety of formats. In this article, the authors discuss lessons organized around complex mathematical tasks. These lessons usually unfold in three phases. First, the task is introduced to students. Second, students work on solving the task. Third, the teacher "orchestrates" a concluding whole-class discussion in…

  18. Selecting Proportional Reasoning Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de la Cruz, Jessica A.

    2013-01-01

    With careful consideration given to task selection, students can construct their own solution strategies to solve complex proportional reasoning tasks while the teacher's instructional goals are still met. Several aspects of the tasks should be considered including their numerical structure, context, difficulty level, and the strategies they are…

  19. Task Time Tracker

    2013-07-24

    This client-side web app tracks the amount of time spent on arbitrary tasks. It allosw the creation of an unlimited number of arbitrarily named tasks ans via simple interactions, tracks the amount of time spent working on the drfined tasks.

  20. A Peak Wind Probability Forecast Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crawford, Winifred; Roeder, William

    2008-01-01

    This conference abstract describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violatioas.The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean end peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

  1. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  2. Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Servranckx, R.; Stunder, B.

    2006-12-01

    Volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDM) have been used operationally since the mid 1990's by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) designated Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) to provide ash forecast guidance. Over the years, significant improvements in the detection and prediction of airborne volcanic ash have been realized thanks to improved models, increases in computing power, 24-hr real time monitoring by VAACs / Meteorological Watch Offices and close coordination with Volcano Observatories around the world. Yet, predicting accurately the spatial and temporal structures of airborne volcanic ash and the deposition at the earth's surface remains a difficult and challenging problem. The forecasting problem is influenced by 3 main components. The first one (ERUPTION SOURCE PARAMETERS) comprises all non-meteorological parameters that characterize a specific eruption or volcanic ash cloud. For example, the volume / mass of ash released in the atmosphere, the duration of the eruption, the altitude and distribution of the ash cloud, the particle size distribution, etc. The second component (METEOROLOGY) includes all meteorological parameters (wind, moisture, stability, etc.) that are calculated by Numerical Weather Prediction models and that serve as input to the VATDM. The third component (TRANSPORT AND DISPERSION) combines input from the other 2 components through the use of VATDM to transport and disperse airborne volcanic ash in the atmosphere as well as depositing it at the surface though various removal mechanisms. Any weakness in one of the components may adversely affect the accuracy of the forecast. In a real-time, operational response context such as exists at the VAACs, the rapid delivery of the modeling results puts some constraints on model resolution and computing time. Efforts are ongoing to evaluate the reliability of VATDM forecasts though the use of various methods, including ensemble techniques. Remote sensing data

  3. Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence

    PubMed Central

    Mandel, David R.; Barnes, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4–0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement. PMID:25024176

  4. WOVOdat, A Worldwide Volcano Unrest Database, to Improve Eruption Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widiwijayanti, C.; Costa, F.; Win, N. T. Z.; Tan, K.; Newhall, C. G.; Ratdomopurbo, A.

    2015-12-01

    WOVOdat is the World Organization of Volcano Observatories' Database of Volcanic Unrest. An international effort to develop common standards for compiling and storing data on volcanic unrests in a centralized database and freely web-accessible for reference during volcanic crises, comparative studies, and basic research on pre-eruption processes. WOVOdat will be to volcanology as an epidemiological database is to medicine. Despite the large spectrum of monitoring techniques, the interpretation of monitoring data throughout the evolution of the unrest and making timely forecasts remain the most challenging tasks for volcanologists. The field of eruption forecasting is becoming more quantitative, based on the understanding of the pre-eruptive magmatic processes and dynamic interaction between variables that are at play in a volcanic system. Such forecasts must also acknowledge and express the uncertainties, therefore most of current research in this field focused on the application of event tree analysis to reflect multiple possible scenarios and the probability of each scenario. Such forecasts are critically dependent on comprehensive and authoritative global volcano unrest data sets - the very information currently collected in WOVOdat. As the database becomes more complete, Boolean searches, side-by-side digital and thus scalable comparisons of unrest, pattern recognition, will generate reliable results. Statistical distribution obtained from WOVOdat can be then used to estimate the probabilities of each scenario after specific patterns of unrest. We established main web interface for data submission and visualizations, and have now incorporated ~20% of worldwide unrest data into the database, covering more than 100 eruptive episodes. In the upcoming years we will concentrate in acquiring data from volcano observatories develop a robust data query interface, optimizing data mining, and creating tools by which WOVOdat can be used for probabilistic eruption

  5. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  6. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  7. Grid Task Execution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hu, Chaumin

    2007-01-01

    IPG Execution Service is a framework that reliably executes complex jobs on a computational grid, and is part of the IPG service architecture designed to support location-independent computing. The new grid service enables users to describe the platform on which they need a job to run, which allows the service to locate the desired platform, configure it for the required application, and execute the job. After a job is submitted, users can monitor it through periodic notifications, or through queries. Each job consists of a set of tasks that performs actions such as executing applications and managing data. Each task is executed based on a starting condition that is an expression of the states of other tasks. This formulation allows tasks to be executed in parallel, and also allows a user to specify tasks to execute when other tasks succeed, fail, or are canceled. The two core components of the Execution Service are the Task Database, which stores tasks that have been submitted for execution, and the Task Manager, which executes tasks in the proper order, based on the user-specified starting conditions, and avoids overloading local and remote resources while executing tasks.

  8. Newsletter. Social and Human Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Istituto Ricerche Applicate Documentazione e Studi, Rome (Italy).

    The newsletter is not only a means of information on social and human forecasting but, moreover, a way of world intercommunication on the topic. Typical issues include current announcements and information (written primarily in English but also in other languages with English translations provided) on: 1) aims, intentions, and activities of…

  9. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  10. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark

    2005-01-01

    The Applied Meteorology Unit developed a forecast tool that provides an assessment of the likelihood of local convective severe weather for the day in order to enhance protection of personnel and material assets of the 45th Space Wing Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

  11. Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

    1981-01-01

    The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

  12. An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Thomas A.

    Students were asked to make forecasts of fourteen quantities where true values would not become known for five or six months. The quantities were selected to be typical of the subjects which would be of interest to a decisionmaker in business or government, and included GNP, consumer prices, draft calls, deaths in South Vietnam, and election…

  13. Understanding and Forecasting Ethnolinguistic Vitality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karan, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting of ethnolinguistic vitality can only be done within a well-functioning descriptive and explanatory model of the dynamics of language stability and shift. It is proposed that the Perceived Benefit Model of Language Shift, used with a taxonomy of language shift motivations, provides that model. The model, based on individual language…

  14. Military needs and forecast, 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldstayn, Alan B.

    1986-01-01

    FORECAST 2 has accomplished its objectives of identifying high leverage technologies for corporate Air Force review. Implementation is underway with emphasis on restructuring existing programs and programming resources in the FY88 BES/FY89 POM. Many joint service/agency opportunities exist.

  15. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  16. The influence of degree of expertise and objective task complexity on perceived task complexity and performance.

    PubMed

    Haerem, Thorvald; Rau, Devaki

    2007-09-01

    Research on expertise has shown that nonexperts may sometimes outperform experts. Some researchers have suggested that superior performance by experts depends on the match between the experts' cognition and the demands of the task. The authors explored this issue using a quasi-experiment set in an organization. They examined how 3 sets of similar tasks that differ in their type of complexity can lead to differences in task perceptions and performance among experts, intermediates, and novices. The results suggest that experts and novices pay attention to different aspects of a task and that this affects both their perceptions of task complexity (i.e., task analyzability and variability) and their performance on the task. PMID:17845088

  17. Possible future directions in crop yield forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colwell, J. E.

    1979-01-01

    This paper examines present and future possible applications of remote sensing to crop yield forecasting. It is concluded that there are ways in which Landsat data could be used to assist in crop yield forecasting using present technology. A framework for global crop yield forecasting which uses remote sensing, meteorological, field and ancillary data, as available, is proposed for the future.

  18. Beat the Instructor: An Introductory Forecasting Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snider, Brent R.; Eliasson, Janice B.

    2013-01-01

    This teaching brief describes a 30-minute game where student groups compete in-class in an introductory time-series forecasting exercise. The students are challenged to "beat the instructor" who competes using forecasting techniques that will be subsequently taught. All forecasts are graphed prior to revealing the randomly generated…

  19. Methodological Problems in the Forecasting of Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kostanian, S. L.

    1978-01-01

    Examines how forecasting of educational development in the Soviet Union can be coordinated with forecasts of scientific and technical progress. Predicts that the efficiency of social forecasting will increase when more empirical data on macro- and micro-processes is collected. (Author/DB)

  20. Can Business Students Forecast Their Own Grade?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hossain, Belayet; Tsigaris, Panagiotis

    2013-01-01

    This study examines grade expectations of two groups of business students for their final course mark. We separate students that are on average "better" forecasters on the basis of them not making significant forecast errors during the semester from those students that are poor forecasters of their final grade. We find that the better…

  1. Use of Financial Forecasting in Educational Retrenchment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chabotar, Kent John

    1987-01-01

    Demonstrates local government's use of alternative forecasting techniques in school planning and retrenchment. Argues that forecasting is an art blending academic and political concerns. While statistical techniques and historical data are useful forecasting tools, the most significant influence should be school officials' plans and preferences.…

  2. A multiple model assessment of seasonal climate forecast skill for applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavers, David; Luo, Lifeng; Wood, Eric F.

    2009-12-01

    Skilful seasonal climate forecasts have potential to affect decision making in agriculture, health and water management. Organizations such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are currently planning to move towards a climate services paradigm, which will rest heavily on skilful forecasts at seasonal (1 to 9 months) timescales from coupled atmosphere-land-ocean models. We present a careful analysis of the predictive skill of temperature and precipitation from eight seasonal climate forecast models with the joint distribution of observations and forecasts. Using the correlation coefficient, a shift in the conditional distribution of the observations given a forecast can be detected, which determines the usefulness of the forecast for applications. Results suggest there is a deficiency of skill in the forecasts beyond month-1, with precipitation having a more pronounced drop in skill than temperature. At long lead times only the equatorial Pacific Ocean exhibits significant skill. This could have an influence on the planned use of seasonal forecasts in climate services and these results may also be seen as a benchmark of current climate prediction capability using (dynamic) couple models.

  3. Control of Integrated Task Sequences Shapes Components of Reaching.

    PubMed

    Viswanathan, Priya; Whitall, Jill; Kagerer, Florian A

    2016-01-01

    Reaching toward an object usually consists of a sequence of elemental actions. Using a reaching task sequence, the authors investigated how task elements of that sequence affected feedforward and feedback components of the reaching phase of the movement. Nine right-handed adults performed, with their dominant and nondominant hands, 4 tasks of different complexities: a simple reaching task; a reach-to-grasp task; a reach-to-grasp and lift object task; and a reach-to-grasp, lift, and place object task. Results showed that in the reach-to-grasp and lift object task more time was allocated to the feedforward component of the reach phase, while latency between the task elements decreased. We also found between-hand differences, supporting previous findings of increased efficiency of processing planning-related information in the preferred hand. The presence of task-related modifications supports the concept of contextual effects when planning a movement. PMID:27254601

  4. Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lynch, Peter

    1992-01-01

    To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity fields. This barotropic forecast has been repeated and extended using a global numerical model, and the results are presented in this paper. Richardson's conclusions regarding the use of geostrophic winds as initial data are reconsidered.An analysis of Richardson's data into normal modes shows that almost 85% of the energy is accounted for by a single eigenmode, the gravest symmetric rotational Hough mode, which travels westward with a period of about five days. This five-day wave has been detected in analyses of stratospheric data. It is striking that the fields chosen by Richardson on considerations of smoothness should so closely resemble a natural oscillation of the atmosphere.The numerical model employed in this study uses an implicit differencing technique, which is stable for large time steps. The numerical instability that would have destroyed Richardson's barotropic forecast, had it been extended, is thereby circumvented. It is sometimes said that computational instability was the cause of the failure of Richardson's baroclinic forecast, for which he obtained a pressure tendency value two orders of magnitude too large. However, the initial tendency is independent of the time step (at least for the explicit scheme used by Richardson). In fact, the spurious tendency resulted from the presence of unrealistically large high-frequency gravity-wave components in the initial fields.High-frequency oscillations are also found in the evolution starting from the idealized data in the barotropic forecast. They are shown to be due to the gravity-wave components of the initial data. These oscillations may be removed by a slight modification of the initial fields. This initialization is effected by means of a simple digital filtering

  5. Predictions of zonal wind and angular momentum by the NMC medium-range forecast model during 1985-89

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosen, Richard D.; Salstein, David A.; Nehrkorn, Thomas

    1991-01-01

    This paper investigates the quality of weather predictions of the atmosphere's relative angular momentum (M) made by the most recent version of the NMC medium-range forecast model (MRF88) during December 1985-1989. It was found that, compared with older versions of MRF, bias errors in the MRF88 forecasts of M became more prominent, while random errors were not affected. Both types of errors in the M forecasts could be traced to problems with forecasts in the zonal mean zonal wind in the tropics.

  6. Remote Sensing and River Discharge Forecasting for Major Rivers in South Asia (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, P. J.; Hopson, T. M.; Hirpa, F. A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; De-Groeve, T.; Shrestha, K.; Gebremichael, M.; Restrepo, P. J.

    2013-12-01

    The South Asia is a flashpoint for natural disasters particularly flooding of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra has profound societal impacts for the region and globally. The 2007 Brahmaputra floods affecting India and Bangladesh, the 2008 avulsion of the Kosi River in India, the 2010 flooding of the Indus River in Pakistan and the 2013 Uttarakhand exemplify disasters on scales almost inconceivable elsewhere. Their frequent occurrence of floods combined with large and rapidly growing populations, high levels of poverty and low resilience, exacerbate the impact of the hazards. Mitigation of these devastating hazards are compounded by limited flood forecast capability, lack of rain/gauge measuring stations and forecast use within and outside the country, and transboundary data sharing on natural hazards. Here, we demonstrate the utility of remotely-derived hydrologic and weather products in producing skillful flood forecasting information without reliance on vulnerable in situ data sources. Over the last decade a forecast system has been providing operational probabilistic forecasts of severe flooding of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers in Bangldesh was developed (Hopson and Webster 2010). The system utilizes ECMWF weather forecast uncertainty information and ensemble weather forecasts, rain gauge and satellite-derived precipitation estimates, together with the limited near-real-time river stage observations from Bangladesh. This system has been expanded to Pakistan and has successfully forecast the 2010-2012 flooding (Shrestha and Webster 2013). To overcome the in situ hydrological data problem, recent efforts in parallel with the numerical modeling have utilized microwave satellite remote sensing of river widths to generate operational discharge advective-based forecasts for the Ganges and Brahmaputra. More than twenty remotely locations upstream of Bangldesh were used to produce stand-alone river flow nowcasts and forecasts at 1-15 days lead time. showing that

  7. The New Era in Operational Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Carlson, H. C.; Gardner, L. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D. D.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Knipp, D. J.; Blake, J. B.; Rex, J.; Fuschino, R.; Mertens, C. J.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Atwell, W.

    2012-12-01

    Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere, thermosphere, and even troposphere are key regions that are affected. The Utah State University (USU) Space Weather Center (SWC) and Space Environment Technologies (SET) are developing and producing commercial space weather applications. Key systems for providing timely information about the effects of space weather are SWC's Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system, SET's Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS), and SET's Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety (ARMAS) system. GAIM, operated by SWC, improves real-time communication and navigation systems by continuously ingesting up to 10,000 slant TEC measurements every 15-minutes from approximately 500 stations. Ionosonde data from several dozen global stations is ingested every 15 minutes to improve the vertical profiles within GAIM. These operational runs enable the reporting of global radio high frequency (HF) signal strengths and near vertical incidence skywave (NVIS) maps used by amateur radio operators and emergency responders via the http://q-upnow.com website. MAPS provides a forecast Dst index out to 6 days through the data-driven Anemomilos algorithm. Anemomilos uses observational proxies for the magnitude, location, and velocity of solar ejecta events. This forecast index is used by satellite operations to characterize upcoming geomagnetic storms, for example. ARMAS is demonstrating a prototype flight of microdosimeters on aircraft to capture the "weather" of the radiation environment for air-crew and passenger safety. It assimilates real-time radiation dose and dose rate data into the global NAIRAS radiation system to correct the global climatology for more accurate radiation fields along flight tracks. This team

  8. The Impact of Intervening Tasks on Response Preparation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sangals, Jorg; Sommer, Werner

    2010-01-01

    Response preparation usually facilitates performance, but it may also interfere with other concurrent tasks. In this article, the authors used event-related brain potentials to study how intervening tasks affect response preparation. In 3 experiments, participants performed intervening tasks during the preparation of a precued hand choice…

  9. The Influence of Seasonal Forecast Accuracy on Farmer Behavior: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobi, J. H.; Nay, J.; Gilligan, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Seasonal climates dictate the livelihoods of farmers in developing countries. While farmers in developed countries often have seasonal forecasts on which to base their cropping decisions, developing world farmers usually make plans for the season without such information. Climate change increases the seasonal uncertainty, making things more difficult for farmers. Providing seasonal forecasts to these farmers is seen as a way to help buffer these typically marginal groups from the effects of climate change, though how to do so and the efficacy of such an effort is still uncertain. In Sri Lanka, an effort is underway to provide such forecasts to farmers. The accuracy of these forecasts is likely to have large impacts on how farmers accept and respond to the information they receive. We present an agent-based model to explore how the accuracy of seasonal rainfall forecasts affects the growing decisions and behavior of farmers in Sri Lanka. Using a decision function based on prospect theory, this model simulates farmers' behavior in the face of a wet, dry, or normal forecast. Farmers can either choose to grow paddy rice or plant a cash crop. Prospect theory is used to evaluate outcomes of the growing season; the farmer's memory of the level of success under a certain set of conditions affects next season's decision. Results from this study have implications for policy makers and seasonal forecasters.

  10. Potential application of wavelet neural network ensemble to forecast streamflow for flood management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; He, Jianxun; Sudheer, K. P.; Tay, Joo-Hwa

    2016-05-01

    Streamflow forecasting, especially the long lead-time forecasting, is still a very challenging task in hydrologic modeling. This could be due to the fact that the forecast accuracy measured in terms of both the amplitude and phase or temporal errors and the forecast precision/reliability quantified in terms of the uncertainty significantly deteriorate with the increase of the lead-time. In the model performance evaluation, the conventional error metrics, which primarily quantify the amplitude error and do not explicitly account for the phase error, have been commonly adopted. For the long lead-time forecasting, the wavelet based neural network (WNN) among a variety of advanced soft computing methods has been shown to be promising in the literature. This paper presented and compared WNN and artificial neural network (ANN), both of which were combined with the ensemble method using block bootstrap sampling (BB), in terms of the forecast accuracy and precision at various lead-times on the Bow River, Alberta, Canada. Apart from conventional model performance metrics, a new index, called percent volumetric error, was proposed, especially for quantifying the phase error. The uncertainty metrics including percentage of coverage and average width were used to evaluate the precision of the modeling approaches. The results obtained demonstrate that the WNN-BB consistently outperforms the ANN-BB in both the categories of the forecast accuracy and precision, especially in the long lead-time forecasting. The findings strongly suggest that the WNN-BB is a robust modeling approach for streamflow forecasting and thus would aid in flood management.

  11. Theoretical basis for operational ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzo, V. J.; Koning, C.; Cash, M.; Millward, G.; Biesecker, D. A.; Puga, L.; Codrescu, M.; Odstrcil, D.

    2015-10-01

    We lay out the theoretical underpinnings for the application of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil modeling system to ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in an operational environment. In such models, there is no magnetic cloud component, so our results pertain only to CME front properties, such as transit time to Earth. Within this framework, we find no evidence that the propagation is chaotic, and therefore, CME forecasting calls for different tactics than employed for terrestrial weather or hurricane forecasting. We explore a broad range of CME cone inputs and ambient states to flesh out differing CME evolutionary behavior in the various dynamical domains (e.g., large, fast CMEs launched into a slow ambient, and the converse; plus numerous permutations in between). CME propagation in both uniform and highly structured ambient flows is considered to assess how much the solar wind background affects the CME front properties at 1 AU. Graphical and analytic tools pertinent to an ensemble approach are developed to enable uncertainties in forecasting CME impact at Earth to be realistically estimated. We discuss how uncertainties in CME pointing relative to the Sun-Earth line affects the reliability of a forecast and how glancing blows become an issue for CME off-points greater than about the half width of the estimated input CME. While the basic results appear consistent with established impressions of CME behavior, the next step is to use existing records of well-observed CMEs at both Sun and Earth to verify that real events appear to follow the systematic tendencies presented in this study.

  12. The Relationship between Levels of Expertise, Task Difficulty, Perceived Self-Efficacy, and Mental Effort Investment in Task Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ho, Hsin-Ning

    2010-01-01

    This study examined the impact of different levels of task difficulty and expertise on self-efficacy judgments. In addition, the study examines how self-efficacy judgments affect the amount of mental effort investment and task performance under different levels of task difficulty and expertise. Results from this study are used to build a…

  13. Improving GEFS Weather Forecasts for Indian Monsoon with Statistical Downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agrawal, Ankita; Salvi, Kaustubh; Ghosh, Subimal

    2014-05-01

    Weather forecast has always been a challenging research problem, yet of a paramount importance as it serves the role of 'key input' in formulating modus operandi for immediate future. Short range rainfall forecasts influence a wide range of entities, right from agricultural industry to a common man. Accurate forecasts actually help in minimizing the possible damage by implementing pre-decided plan of action and hence it is necessary to gauge the quality of forecasts which might vary with the complexity of weather state and regional parameters. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is one such perfect arena to check the quality of weather forecast not only because of the level of intricacy in spatial and temporal patterns associated with it, but also the amount of damage it can cause (because of poor forecasts) to the Indian economy by affecting agriculture Industry. The present study is undertaken with the rationales of assessing, the ability of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) in predicting ISMR over central India and the skill of statistical downscaling technique in adding value to the predictions by taking them closer to evidentiary target dataset. GEFS is a global numerical weather prediction system providing the forecast results of different climate variables at a fine resolution (0.5 degree and 1 degree). GEFS shows good skills in predicting different climatic variables but fails miserably over rainfall predictions for Indian summer monsoon rainfall, which is evident from a very low to negative correlation values between predicted and observed rainfall. Towards the fulfilment of second rationale, the statistical relationship is established between the reasonably well predicted climate variables (GEFS) and observed rainfall. The GEFS predictors are treated with multicollinearity and dimensionality reduction techniques, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Statistical relationship is

  14. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

    PubMed Central

    Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time. PMID:24789559

  15. Forecasting the impact of virtual environment technology on maintenance training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlager, Mark S.; Boman, Duane; Piantanida, Tom; Stephenson, Robert

    1993-01-01

    To assist NASA and the Air Force in determining how and when to invest in virtual environment (VE) technology for maintenance training, we identified possible roles for VE technology in such training, assessed its cost-effectiveness relative to existing technologies, and formulated recommendations for a research agenda that would address instructional and system development issues involved in fielding a VE training system. In the first phase of the study, we surveyed VE developers to forecast capabilities, maturity, and estimated costs for VE component technologies. We then identified maintenance tasks and their training costs through interviews with maintenance technicians, instructors, and training developers. Ten candidate tasks were selected from two classes of maintenance tasks (seven aircraft maintenance and three space maintenance) using five criteria developed to identify types of tasks most likely to benefit from VE training. Three tasks were used as specific cases for cost-benefit analysis. In formulating research recommendations, we considered three aspects of feasibility: technological considerations, cost-effectiveness, and anticipated R&D efforts. In this paper, we describe the major findings in each of these areas and suggest research efforts that we believe will help achieve the goal of a cost-effective VE maintenance training system by the next decade.

  16. ECMWF SSW forecast evaluation using infrasound

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smets, P. S. M.; Assink, J. D.; Le Pichon, A.; Evers, L. G.

    2016-05-01

    Accurate prediction of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events is important for the performance of numerical weather prediction due to significant stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In this study, for the first time middle atmospheric numerical weather forecasts are evaluated using infrasound. A year of near-continuous infrasound from the volcano Mount Tolbachik (Kamchatka, Russian Federation) is compared with simulations using high-resolution deterministic forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For the entire time span the nowcast generally performs best, indicated by a higher continuity of the predicted wavefront characteristics with a minimal back azimuth difference. Best performance for all forecasts is obtained in summer. The difference between the infrasound observations and the predictions based on the forecasts is significantly larger during the 2013 SSW period for all forecasts. Simulations show that the SSW onset is better captured by the 10 day forecast while the recovery is better captured by the nowcast.

  17. Climate Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, P. C.; Fildes, R.

    2009-04-01

    This paper will discuss various aspects of climate time series data analysis, modelling and forecasting being carried out at Lancaster. This will include state-dependent parameter, nonlinear, stochastic modelling of globally averaged atmospheric carbon dioxide; the computation of emission strategies based on modern control theory; and extrapolative time series benchmark forecasts of annual average temperature, both global and local. The key to the forecasting evaluation will be the iterative estimation of forecast error based on rolling origin comparisons, as recommended in the forecasting research literature. The presentation will conclude with with a comparison of the time series forecasts with forecasts produced from global circulation models and a discussion of the implications for climate modelling research.

  18. Univariate time series forecasting algorithm validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ismail, Suzilah; Zakaria, Rohaiza; Muda, Tuan Zalizam Tuan

    2014-12-01

    Forecasting is a complex process which requires expert tacit knowledge in producing accurate forecast values. This complexity contributes to the gaps between end users and expert. Automating this process by using algorithm can act as a bridge between them. Algorithm is a well-defined rule for solving a problem. In this study a univariate time series forecasting algorithm was developed in JAVA and validated using SPSS and Excel. Two set of simulated data (yearly and non-yearly); several univariate forecasting techniques (i.e. Moving Average, Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing, Time Series Regressions and ARIMA) and recent forecasting process (such as data partition, several error measures, recursive evaluation and etc.) were employed. Successfully, the results of the algorithm tally with the results of SPSS and Excel. This algorithm will not just benefit forecaster but also end users that lacking in depth knowledge of forecasting process.

  19. Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market

    SciTech Connect

    Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

    2008-11-15

    For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

  20. Amygdala task-evoked activity and task-free connectivity independently contribute to feelings of arousal.

    PubMed

    Touroutoglou, Alexandra; Bickart, Kevin C; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Dickerson, Bradford C

    2014-10-01

    Individual differences in the intensity of feelings of arousal while viewing emotional pictures have been associated with the magnitude of task-evoked blood-oxygen dependent (BOLD) response in the amygdala. Recently, we reported that individual differences in feelings of arousal are associated with task-free (resting state) connectivity within the salience network. There has not yet been an investigation of whether these two types of functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures are redundant or independent in their relationships to behavior. Here we tested the hypothesis that a combination of task-evoked amygdala activation and task-free amygdala connectivity within the salience network relate to individual differences in feelings of arousal while viewing of negatively potent images. In 25 young adults, results revealed that greater task-evoked amygdala activation and stronger task-free amygdala connectivity within the salience network each contributed independently to feelings of arousal, predicting a total of 45% of its variance. Individuals who had both increased task-evoked amygdala activation and stronger task-free amygdala connectivity within the salience network had the most heightened levels of arousal. Task-evoked amygdala activation and task-free amygdala connectivity within the salience network were not related to each other, suggesting that resting-state and task-evoked dynamic brain imaging measures may provide independent and complementary information about affective experience, and likely other kinds of behaviors as well. PMID:24862171

  1. From Potential to Practice: How Weather and Climate Forecasts Can Be Effectively Used in Water Resources Management Decision Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

    2015-12-01

    The last decade has witnessed tremendous scientific and technological advances in our ability to forecast climate variability and extremes, which are potentially useful to help operate and manage water resources systems with larger reliability and efficiency. However, many forecasts are rarely effectively used in practice and there is little evidence of incorporating them in real-world decision making. One of the main barriers of the uptake of forecasts, which is often cited by studies, is related to forecast uncertainty; however, even reliable forecasts alone are not sufficient to ensure the expected response. There exist other barriers that affect effective use of forecasts such as water managers' behavior and institutional impediments. In fact, water managers make decisions in a sophisticated setting, which is on one hand affected by uncertainty and on the other hand constrained by regulations and policies. Therefore, it is not only important to recognize the various key individual challenges, but also critical to understand the interdependencies among them (Figure 1) in order to properly address the effective use of forecasts. This understanding is also essential to assess the expected value of forecasts information which is of high importance for decision makers prior to incorporating forecasts. The main objectives of this talk, which builds upon an extensive literature review of using forecasts in water resources and agricultural decision making, are to 1) address the key challenges limiting the uptake of forecast, 2) highlight the interdependency among different factors, and 3) shed light on how these insights can help improve the use of forecast in real-world practices.

  2. Task mapping for non-contiguous allocations.

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Vitus Joseph; Bunde, David P.; Ebbers, Johnathan; Price, Nicholas W.; Swank, Matthew; Feer, Stefan P.; Rhodes, Zachary D.

    2013-02-01

    This paper examines task mapping algorithms for non-contiguously allocated parallel jobs. Several studies have shown that task placement affects job running time for both contiguously and non-contiguously allocated jobs. Traditionally, work on task mapping either uses a very general model where the job has an arbitrary communication pattern or assumes that jobs are allocated contiguously, making them completely isolated from each other. A middle ground between these two cases is the mapping problem for non-contiguous jobs having a specific communication pattern. We propose several task mapping algorithms for jobs with a stencil communication pattern and evaluate them using experiments and simulations. Our strategies improve the running time of a MiniApp by as much as 30% over a baseline strategy. Furthermore, this improvement increases markedly with the job size, demonstrating the importance of task mapping as systems grow toward exascale.

  3. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 1 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 1 compares flight plans based on forecasts with plans based on the verifying analysis from 33 days during the summer and fall of 1979. The comparisons show that: (1) potential fuel savings conservatively estimated to be between 1.2 and 2.5 percent could result from using more timely and accurate weather data in flight planning and route selection; (2) the Suitland forecast generally underestimates wind speeds; and (3) the track selection methodology of many airlines operating on the North Atlantic may not be optimum resulting in their selecting other than the optimum North Atlantic Organized Track about 50 percent of the time.

  4. Temperature sensitivity of a numerical pollen forecast model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheifinger, Helfried; Meran, Ingrid; Szabo, Barbara; Gallaun, Heinz; Natali, Stefano; Mantovani, Simone

    2016-04-01

    Allergic rhinitis has become a global health problem especially affecting children and adolescence. Timely and reliable warning before an increase of the atmospheric pollen concentration means a substantial support for physicians and allergy suffers. Recently developed numerical pollen forecast models have become means to support the pollen forecast service, which however still require refinement. One of the problem areas concerns the correct timing of the beginning and end of the flowering period of the species under consideration, which is identical with the period of possible pollen emission. Both are governed essentially by the temperature accumulated before the entry of flowering and during flowering. Phenological models are sensitive to a bias of the temperature. A mean bias of -1°C of the input temperature can shift the entry date of a phenological phase for about a week into the future. A bias of such an order of magnitude is still possible in case of numerical weather forecast models. If the assimilation of additional temperature information (e.g. ground measurements as well as satellite-retrieved air / surface temperature fields) is able to reduce such systematic temperature deviations, the precision of the timing of phenological entry dates might be enhanced. With a number of sensitivity experiments the effect of a possible temperature bias on the modelled phenology and the pollen concentration in the atmosphere is determined. The actual bias of the ECMWF IFS 2 m temperature will also be calculated and its effect on the numerical pollen forecast procedure presented.

  5. Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

  6. Grid-scale fluctuations and forecast error in wind power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bel, G.; Connaughton, C. P.; Toots, M.; Bandi, M. M.

    2016-02-01

    Wind power fluctuations at the turbine and farm scales are generally not expected to be correlated over large distances. When power from distributed farms feeds the electrical grid, fluctuations from various farms are expected to smooth out. Using data from the Irish grid as a representative example, we analyze wind power fluctuations entering an electrical grid. We find that not only are grid-scale fluctuations temporally correlated up to a day, but they possess a self-similar structure—a signature of long-range correlations in atmospheric turbulence affecting wind power. Using the statistical structure of temporal correlations in fluctuations for generated and forecast power time series, we quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ({e}τ ) that quantifies deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and generated time series, and a scaling error ({e}\\zeta ) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations for generated power. With no a priori knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ({e}τ ) and the scaling error ({e}\\zeta ).

  7. Experiments with models committees for flow forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, J.; Kayastha, N.; van Andel, S. J.; Fenicia, F.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2012-04-01

    In hydrological modelling typically a single model accounting for all possible hydrological loads, seasons and regimes is used. We argue however, that if a model is not complex enough (and this is the case if conceptual or semi-distributed models are used), then a single model can hardly capture all facets of a complex process, and hence more flexible modelling architectures are required. One possibility here is building several specialized models and making them responsible for various sub-processes. An output would be then a combination of outputs of individual models. In machine learning this approach is widely applied: several learning models are combined in a committee (where each model has a "voting" right with a particular weight). In this presentation we concentrate on optimising the above mentioned process of building a model committee, and on various ways of (a) building individual specialized models (mainly concentrating on calibrating them on various subsets of data and regimes corresponding to hydrological sub-processes), and (b) on various ways of combining their outputs (using the ideas of a fuzzy committee with various parameterisations). In doing so, we extend the approaches developed in [1, 2] and present new results. We consider this problem in multi-objective optimization setting (where objective functions correspond to different hydrological regimes) - leading to a number of Pareto-optimal model combinations from which the most appropriate for a given task can be chosen. Applications of the presented approach to flow forecasting are presented.

  8. Satellite freeze forecast system: Executive summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    A satellite-based temperature monitoring and prediction system consisting of a computer controlled acquisition, processing, and display system and the ten automated weather stations called by that computer was developed and transferred to the national weather service. This satellite freeze forecasting system (SFFS) acquires satellite data from either one of two sources, surface data from 10 sites, displays the observed data in the form of color-coded thermal maps and in tables of automated weather station temperatures, computes predicted thermal maps when requested and displays such maps either automatically or manually, archives the data acquired, and makes comparisons with historical data. Except for the last function, SFFS handles these tasks in a highly automated fashion if the user so directs. The predicted thermal maps are the result of two models, one a physical energy budget of the soil and atmosphere interface and the other a statistical relationship between the sites at which the physical model predicts temperatures and each of the pixels of the satellite thermal map.

  9. Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

  10. Probabilistic Downscaling Methods for Developing Categorical Streamflow Forecasts using Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazrooei, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    Statistical information from climate forecast ensembles can be utilized in developing probabilistic streamflow forecasts for providing the uncertainty in streamflow forecast potential. This study examines the use of Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) in downscaling the probabilistic information from the large-scale climate forecast ensembles into a point-scale categorical streamflow forecasts. Performance of MLR in developing one-month lead categorical forecasts is evaluated for various river basins over the US Sunbelt. Comparison of MLR with the estimated categorical forecasts from Principle Component Regression (PCR) method under both cross-validation and split-sampling validation reveals that in general the forecasts from MLR has better performance and lower Rank Probability Score (RPS) compared to the PCR forecasts. In addition, MLR performs better than PCR method particularly in arid basins that exhibit strong skewness in seasonal flows with records of distinct dry years. A theoretical underpinning for this improved performance of MLR is also provided.

  11. Improving Forecasts for Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arumugam, Sankar; Wood, Andy; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Schaake, John

    2014-01-01

    Recent advances in seasonal to interannual hydroclimate predictions provide an opportunity for developing a proactive approach toward water management. This motivated a recent AGU Chapman Conference (see program details at http://chapman.agu.org/watermanagement/). Approximately 85 participants from the United States, Oceania, Asia, Europe, and South America presented and discussed the current state of successes, challenges, and opportunities in seasonal to interannual hydroclimate forecasts and water management, and a number of key messages emerged.

  12. Post Processing Numerical Weather Prediction Model Rainfall Forecasts for Use in Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D.; Bennett, J.; Ward, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2012-12-01

    Through the water information research and development alliance (WIRADA) project, CSIRO is conducting research to improve flood and short-term streamflow forecasting services delivered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. WIRADA aims to build and test systems to generate ensemble flood and short-term streamflow forecasts with lead times of up to 10 days by integrating rainfall forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and hydrological modelling. Here we present an overview of the latest progress towards developing this system. Rainfall during the forecast period is a major source of uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Ensemble rainfall forecasts are used in streamflow forecasting to characterise the rainfall uncertainty. In Australia, NWP models provide forecasts of rainfall and other weather conditions for lead times of up to 10 days. However, rainfall forecasts from Australian NWP models are deterministic and often contain systematic errors. We use a simplified Bayesian joint probability (BJP) method to post-process rainfall forecasts from the latest generation of Australian NWP models. The BJP method generates reliable and skilful ensemble rainfall forecasts. The post-processed rainfall ensembles are then used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall runoff model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is evaluated on a number of Australian catchments and the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecasts are demonstrated.

  13. Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regonda, Satish; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill

    2010-05-01

    We present a statistical procedure that generates short-term streamflow ensemble forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, forecasts operationally produced by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFC). The resulting ensemble forecast provides an estimate of the uncertainty in the single-valued forecast to aid risk-based decision making by the emergency managers and by the users of the forecast products and services. The single-valued forecasts are produced at a 6-hr time step for 5 days into the future, and reflect single-valued short-term quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF) and various run-time modifications (MOD), or manual data assimilation, by human forecasters to reduce various sources of error in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates 5 day-ahead ensemble traces of streamflow from a very parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecasts, QPF and recent streamflow observations. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a 10-year archive of the single-valued river stage forecasts for six forecast points in Oklahoma produced operationally by the Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC). To evaluate the procedure, we carried out dependent and leave-one-year-out cross validation. The resulting ensemble hindcasts are then verified using the Ensemble Verification System (EVS) developed at the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD).

  14. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  15. On the validity of cosmological Fisher matrix forecasts

    SciTech Connect

    Wolz, Laura; Kilbinger, Martin; Weller, Jochen; Giannantonio, Tommaso E-mail: martin.kilbinger@cea.fr E-mail: tommaso@usm.lmu.de

    2012-09-01

    We present a comparison of Fisher matrix forecasts for cosmological probes with Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) posterior likelihood estimation methods. We analyse the performance of future Dark Energy Task Force (DETF) stage-III and stage-IV dark-energy surveys using supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations and weak lensing as probes. We concentrate in particular on the dark-energy equation of state parameters w{sub 0} and w{sub a}. For purely geometrical probes, and especially when marginalising over w{sub a}, we find considerable disagreement between the two methods, since in this case the Fisher matrix can not reproduce the highly non-elliptical shape of the likelihood function. More quantitatively, the Fisher method underestimates the marginalized errors for purely geometrical probes between 30%-70%. For cases including structure formation such as weak lensing, we find that the posterior probability contours from the Fisher matrix estimation are in good agreement with the MCMC contours and the forecasted errors only changing on the 5% level. We then explore non-linear transformations resulting in physically-motivated parameters and investigate whether these parameterisations exhibit a Gaussian behaviour. We conclude that for the purely geometrical probes and, more generally, in cases where it is not known whether the likelihood is close to Gaussian, the Fisher matrix is not the appropriate tool to produce reliable forecasts.

  16. Scorecard on winter weather forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richman, Barbara T.

    A comparison of the observed temperatures and precipitation for this past winter (maps on left) with predicted temperatures and precipitation (maps on right) shows that the National Weather Service (NWS) temperature prediction was below par, but that the NWS precipitation forecast was ‘quite good,’ according to Don L. Gilman, chief of the NWS long-range forecast branch. The predictions, issued November 29, 1982 (Eos, December 14, 1982, p. 1211), covered December, January, and February.NWS long-range forecasters had thought that frigid Arctic air would swoop far south to bring below-normal temperatures to the western United States. Instead, an east Pacific trough, which may have been the strongest since 1900, brought a strong influx of air from the west, according to Gilman. The intense, low-pressure anomaly in the east Pacific, with the strong westerly winds, teamed with heavy rains south and southwest of Hawaii and warm equatorial Pacific waters to bring warm, wet air to the western United States. The results (see maps): Throughout most of the country, observed temperatures were above normal (A) or normal (N), while observed precipitation was heavy (H) o r normal (no code). Below-normal temperatures (B) occurred only in a portion of the southcentral U.S. and the Florida Keys. Light precipitation (L) fell over two patches in the northern plains, in the Appalachian region, and along the Maine coast.

  17. Economic consequences of improved temperature forecasts: An experiment with the Florida citrus growers (control group results). Executive summary. [weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    A demonstration experiment is being planned to show that frost and freeze prediction improvements are possible utilizing timely Synchronous Meteorological Satellite temperature measurements and that this information can affect Florida citrus grower operations and decisions so as to significantly reduce the cost for frost and freeze protection and crop losses. The design and implementation of the first phase of an economic experiment which will monitor citrus growers decisions, actions, costs and losses, and meteorological forecasts and actual weather events was carried out. The economic experiment was designed to measure the change in annual protection costs and crop losses which are the direct result of improved temperature forecasts. To estimate the benefits that may result from improved temperature forecasting capability, control and test groups were established with effective separation being accomplished temporally. The control group, utilizing current forecasting capability, was observed during the 1976-77 frost season and the results are reported. A brief overview is given of the economic experiment, the results obtained to date, and the work which still remains to be done.

  18. The carry-over effect of competition in task-sharing: evidence from the joint Simon task.

    PubMed

    Iani, Cristina; Anelli, Filomena; Nicoletti, Roberto; Rubichi, Sandro

    2014-01-01

    The Simon effect, that is the advantage of the spatial correspondence between stimulus and response locations when stimulus location is a task-irrelevant dimension, occurs even when the task is performed together by two participants, each performing a go/no-go task. Previous studies showed that this joint Simon effect, considered by some authors as a measure of self-other integration, does not emerge when during task performance co-actors are required to compete. The present study investigated whether and for how long competition experienced during joint performance of one task can affect performance in a following joint Simon task. In two experiments, we required pairs of participants to perform together a joint Simon task, before and after jointly performing together an unrelated non-spatial task (the Eriksen flanker task). In Experiment 1, participants always performed the joint Simon task under neutral instructions, before and after performing the joint flanker task in which they were explicitly required either to cooperate with (i.e., cooperative condition) or to compete against a co-actor (i.e., competitive condition). In Experiment 2, they were required to compete during the joint flanker task and to cooperate during the subsequent joint Simon task. Competition experienced in one task affected the way the subsequent joint task was performed, as revealed by the lack of the joint Simon effect, even though, during the Simon task participants were not required to compete (Experiment 1). However, prior competition no longer affected subsequent performance if a new goal that created positive interdependence between the two agents was introduced (Experiment 2). These results suggest that the emergence of the joint Simon effect is significantly influenced by how the goals of the co-acting individuals are related, with the effect of competition extending beyond the specific competitive setting and affecting subsequent interactions. PMID:24897120

  19. NSI security task: Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tencati, Ron

    1991-01-01

    An overview is presented of the NASA Science Internet (NSI) security task. The task includes the following: policies and security documentation; risk analysis and management; computer emergency response team; incident handling; toolkit development; user consulting; and working groups, conferences, and committees.

  20. A Microcomputer Implementation Of An Intelligent Data Acquisition And Load Forecasting System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, Saifur

    1987-01-01

    This paper reports on the hardware and the programming aspects of an intelligent data acquisition and load forecasting system that has been implemented on a desktop microcomputer. The objective was to develop a low cost and reliable system that would collect forecasted weather data, real-time electric utility load data, archive them, and issue an electric utility load forecast in 1-hour, 6-hour and upto 24-hour increments within a midnight-to-midnight time frame. Data are collected, over commercial telephone lines, from remote locations (often hundreds of miles apart), filtered and then processed. The archived data are used to form monthly summaries of hourly electric utility load (MW) and weather conditions in the area. A set of pre-selected rules are then applied on this database to develop the desired load forecast. All this work is done in a totally automated fashion, i.e., without any human intervention. The data acquisition and load forecasting system is based on an AT&T 3B2/300 UNIX based desktop microcomputer. The 3B2 serves as the "heart" of the system and performs the functions of data collection, processing, archiving, load forecasting and display. It is a multi-tasking, multi-user machine and at it's present configuration can support four users and a "super user", or system manager.

  1. Measuring the benefits of climate forecasts in predicting PV power production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Felice, Matteo; Alessandri, Andrea; Pollino, Maurizio

    2016-04-01

    Surface solar radiation is an important variable to model and predict solar power output. Having accurate forecast may be of potential use for planning and operational tasks, both at short- and long-time scales. This study examines the predictability of seasonal surface solar radiation comparing ECMWF System4 Seasonal operational forecasts the SARAH Satellite Dataset on the period 1984-2007. This work tries to answer the following question: how useful are climate forecasts in predicting seasonal PV production? The "information layer" provided by climate information is overlapped with 1) the information about the land cover (CLC2006) to consider the potential amount of land available for PV panels and 2) the information about the solar power installed capacity for European region in order to define the areas where an improved forecast could have a bigger impact. All the information layers are summarised by using a simple scalar index (Index of Opportunity) computed for all the European regions for the four seasons. The results are very interesting, in fact the potential benefits of climate forecasts are not (only) related to their statistical skills (e.g. probabilistic scores) but also to the actual and potential installed capacity of solar power. Here, we show that to assess the usefulness of climate forecasts in the energy sector we should use all the relevant information layers, combining them according to the "needs" of the potential users.

  2. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted

  3. If this then that: an introduction to automated task services.

    PubMed

    Hoy, Matthew B

    2015-01-01

    This article explores automated task services, a type of website that allows users to create rules that are triggered by activity on one website and perform a task on another site. The most well-known automated task service is If This Then That (IFTTT), but recently a large number of these services have sprung up. These services can be used to connect websites, apps, business services, and even devices such as phones and home automation equipment. This allows for millions of possible combinations of rules, triggers, and actions. Librarians can put these services to use in many ways, from automating social media postings to remembering to bring their umbrella when rain is in the forecast. A list of popular automated task services is included, as well as a number of ideas for using these services in libraries. PMID:25611444

  4. Demonstrating Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) for Northern California in an Operational Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgakakos, K. P.; Graham, N. E.; Georgakakos, A. P.; Yao, H.

    2007-05-01

    Considerable investments have been made toward improving the quality and applicability of climate, synoptic, and hydrologic forecast information. In addition, earlier retrospective studies have demonstrated that the management of water resource systems with large reservoirs can benefit from such information. However, prior to this project no focused program has aimed to quantify and demonstrate these benefits in an operational environment. As a result, few reservoir managers have been able or willing to dedicate the considerable effort required to utilize new approaches and realize the benefits of improved forecast information. The purpose of the Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) Project is to demonstrate increased water-use efficiency in Northern California water resources operations through the innovative application of meteorological/climate, hydrologic and decision science. In accordance with its purpose, the particular objectives of INFORM are to: (a) implement a prototype integrated forecast-management system for the primary Northern California reservoirs, both for individual reservoirs as well as system-wide; and (b) demonstrate the utility of meteorological/climate and hydrologic forecasts through near-real-time tests of the integrated system with actual data and management input, by comparing its economic and other benefits to those accruing from current management practices for the same hydrologic events. To achieve the general objectives of the INFORM project, the authors performed the following technical tasks: (a) Developed, implemented and performed validation of climate, weather, hydrology and decision INFORM components for Northern California with historical data and real-time data; (b) Integrated INFORM system climate, hydrology and decision components and performed initial operational tests producing real-time ensemble forecasts out to lead times of 16 days four times daily for the wet season 2005-2006, and out to 9 months with

  5. Debugging tasked Ada programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fainter, R. G.; Lindquist, T. E.

    1986-01-01

    The applications for which Ada was developed require distributed implementations of the language and extensive use of tasking facilities. Debugging and testing technology as it applies to parallel features of languages currently falls short of needs. Thus, the development of embedded systems using Ada pose special challenges to the software engineer. Techniques for distributing Ada programs, support for simulating distributed target machines, testing facilities for tasked programs, and debugging support applicable to simulated and to real targets all need to be addressed. A technique is presented for debugging Ada programs that use tasking and it describes a debugger, called AdaTAD, to support the technique. The debugging technique is presented together with the use interface to AdaTAD. The component of AdaTAD that monitors and controls communication among tasks was designed in Ada and is presented through an example with a simple tasked program.

  6. Task Description Language

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simmons, Reid; Apfelbaum, David

    2005-01-01

    Task Description Language (TDL) is an extension of the C++ programming language that enables programmers to quickly and easily write complex, concurrent computer programs for controlling real-time autonomous systems, including robots and spacecraft. TDL is based on earlier work (circa 1984 through 1989) on the Task Control Architecture (TCA). TDL provides syntactic support for hierarchical task-level control functions, including task decomposition, synchronization, execution monitoring, and exception handling. A Java-language-based compiler transforms TDL programs into pure C++ code that includes calls to a platform-independent task-control-management (TCM) library. TDL has been used to control and coordinate multiple heterogeneous robots in projects sponsored by NASA and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). It has also been used in Brazil to control an autonomous airship and in Canada to control a robotic manipulator.

  7. Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-05-01

    Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

  8. Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare

  9. In a dynamic lifting task, the relationship between cross-sectional abdominal muscle thickness and the corresponding muscle activity is affected by the combined use of a weightlifting belt and the Valsalva maneuver.

    PubMed

    Blanchard, Trevor W; Smith, Camille; Grenier, Sylvain G

    2016-06-01

    It has been shown that under isometric conditions, as the activity of the abdominal muscles increases, the thicknesses of the muscles also increase. The purpose of this experiment was to determine whether change in muscle thickness could be used as a measure of muscle activity during a deadlift as well as determining the effect of a weightlifting belt and/or the Valsalva maneuver on the muscle thicknesses. The Transversus Abdominis (TrA) and Internal Obliques (IO) muscles were analyzed at rest and during a deadlift. Muscle thickness was measured using ultrasound imaging and muscle activity was simultaneously recorded using electromyography. Each subject performed deadlift under normal conditions, while performing the Valsalva maneuver, while wearing a weightlifting belt and while both utilizing the belt and the Valsalva maneuver. There was no relationship between change in muscle thickness and muscle activity for both the TrA and IO (R(2)<0.13 for all conditions). However it was found that the Valsalva maneuver increased abdominal muscle thickness whereas the belt limited muscle expansion; each with an increase in activity. These results indicate that ultrasound cannot be used to measure muscle activity for a deadlift and that the belt affects how the IO and TrA function together. PMID:27093137

  10. Transition from Research to Operations: Assessing Value of Experimental Forecast Products within the NWSFO Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lapenta, William M.; Wohlman, Richard; Bradshaw, Tom; Burks, Jason; Jedlovec, Gary; Goodman, Steve; Darden, Chris; Meyer, Paul

    2003-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. To meet long-term program expectations, it is not sufficient simply to give forecasters sophisticated workstations or new forecast products without fully assessing the ways in which they will be utilized. Close communication must be established between the research and operational communities so that developers have a complete understanding of user needs. In turn, forecasters must obtain a more comprehensive knowledge of the modeling and sensing tools available to them. A major goal of the SPoRT Program is to develop metrics and conduct assessment studies with NWS forecasters to evaluate the impacts and benefits of ESE experimental products on forecast skill. At a glance the task seems relatively straightforward. However, performing assessment of experimental products in an operational environment is demanding. Given the tremendous time constraints placed on NWS forecasters, it is imperative that forecaster input be obtained in a concise unobtrusive manor. Great care must also be taken to ensure that forecasters understand their participation will eventually benefit them and WFO operations in general. Two requirements of the assessment plan developed under the SPoRT activity are that it 1) Can be implemented within the WFO environment; and 2) Provide tangible results for BOTH the research and operational communities. Supplemental numerical quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) were chosen as the first experimental SPoRT product to be evaluated during a Pilot Assessment Program conducted 1 May 2003 within the Huntsville AL National Weather Service Forecast Office. Forecast time periods were broken up into six- hour bins ranging from zero to twenty-four hours. Data were made available for display in AWIPS on an

  11. Support vector machine for day ahead electricity price forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razak, Intan Azmira binti Wan Abdul; Abidin, Izham bin Zainal; Siah, Yap Keem; Rahman, Titik Khawa binti Abdul; Lada, M. Y.; Ramani, Anis Niza binti; Nasir, M. N. M.; Ahmad, Arfah binti

    2015-05-01

    Electricity price forecasting has become an important part of power system operation and planning. In a pool- based electric energy market, producers submit selling bids consisting in energy blocks and their corresponding minimum selling prices to the market operator. Meanwhile, consumers submit buying bids consisting in energy blocks and their corresponding maximum buying prices to the market operator. Hence, both producers and consumers use day ahead price forecasts to derive their respective bidding strategies to the electricity market yet reduce the cost of electricity. However, forecasting electricity prices is a complex task because price series is a non-stationary and highly volatile series. Many factors cause for price spikes such as volatility in load and fuel price as well as power import to and export from outside the market through long term contract. This paper introduces an approach of machine learning algorithm for day ahead electricity price forecasting with Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM). Previous day data of Hourly Ontario Electricity Price (HOEP), generation's price and demand from Ontario power market are used as the inputs for training data. The simulation is held using LSSVMlab in Matlab with the training and testing data of 2004. SVM that widely used for classification and regression has great generalization ability with structured risk minimization principle rather than empirical risk minimization. Moreover, same parameter settings in trained SVM give same results that absolutely reduce simulation process compared to other techniques such as neural network and time series. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the proposed model shows that SVM performs well compared to neural network.

  12. Strategic Adaptation to Task Characteristics, Incentives, and Individual Differences in Dual-Tasking

    PubMed Central

    Janssen, Christian P.; Brumby, Duncan P.

    2015-01-01

    We investigate how good people are at multitasking by comparing behavior to a prediction of the optimal strategy for dividing attention between two concurrent tasks. In our experiment, 24 participants had to interleave entering digits on a keyboard with controlling a randomly moving cursor with a joystick. The difficulty of the tracking task was systematically varied as a within-subjects factor. Participants were also exposed to different explicit reward functions that varied the relative importance of the tracking task relative to the typing task (between-subjects). Results demonstrate that these changes in task characteristics and monetary incentives, together with individual differences in typing ability, influenced how participants choose to interleave tasks. This change in strategy then affected their performance on each task. A computational cognitive model was used to predict performance for a wide set of alternative strategies for how participants might have possibly interleaved tasks. This allowed for predictions of optimal performance to be derived, given the constraints placed on performance by the task and cognition. A comparison of human behavior with the predicted optimal strategy shows that participants behaved near optimally. Our findings have implications for the design and evaluation of technology for multitasking situations, as consideration should be given to the characteristics of the task, but also to how different users might use technology depending on their individual characteristics and their priorities. PMID:26161851

  13. Solar flux forecasting using mutual information with an optimal delay

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ashrafi, S.; Conway, D.; Rokni, M.; Sperling, R.; Roszman, L.; Cooley, J.

    1993-01-01

    Solar flux F(sub 10.7) directly affects the atmospheric density, thereby changing the lifetime and prediction of satellite orbits. For this reason, accurate forecasting of F(sub 10.7) is crucial for orbit determination of spacecraft. Our attempts to model and forecast F(sub 10.7) uncovered highly entangled dynamics. We concluded that the general lack of predictability in solar activity arises from its nonlinear nature. Nonlinear dynamics allow us to predict F(sub 10.7) more accurately than is possible using stochastic methods for time scales shorter than a characteristic horizon, and with about the same accuracy as using stochastic techniques when the forecasted data exceed this horizon. The forecast horizon is a function of two dynamical invariants: the attractor dimension and the Lyapunov exponent. In recent years, estimation of the attractor dimension reconstructed from a time series has become an important tool in data analysis. In calculating the invariants of the system, the first necessary step is the reconstruction of the attractor for the system from the time-delayed values of the time series. The choice of the time delay is critical for this reconstruction. For an infinite amount of noise-free data, the time delay can, in principle, be chosen almost arbitrarily. However, the quality of the phase portraits produced using the time-delay technique is determined by the value chosen for the delay time. Fraser and Swinney have shown that a good choice for this time delay is the one suggested by Shaw, which uses the first local minimum of the mutual information rather than the autocorrelation function to determine the time delay. This paper presents a refinement of this criterion and applies the refined technique to solar flux data to produce a forecast of the solar activity.

  14. Learning one task by interleaving practice with another task

    PubMed Central

    Szpiro, Sarit; Wright, Beverly A.; Carrasco, Marisa

    2014-01-01

    Perceptual learning is a sustainable improvement in performance on a perceptual task following training. A hallmark of perceptual learning is task specificity – after participants have trained on and learned a particular task, learning rarely transfers to another task, even with identical stimuli. Accordingly, it is assumed that performing a task throughout training is a requirement for learning to occur on that specific task. Thus, interleaving training trials of a target task, with those of another task, should not improve performance on the target task. However, recent findings in audition show that interleaving two tasks during training can facilitate perceptual learning, even when the training on neither task yields learning on its own. Here we examined the role of cross-task training in the visual domain by training 4 groups of human observers for 3 consecutive days on an orientation comparison task (target task) and/or spatial-frequency comparison task (interleaving task). Interleaving small amounts of training on each task, which were ineffective alone, not only enabled learning on the target orientation task, as in audition, but also surpassed the learning attained by training on that task alone for the same total number of trials. This study illustrates that cross-task training in visual perceptual learning can be more effective than single-task training. The results reveal a comparable learning principle across modalities and demonstrate how to optimize training regimens to maximize perceptual learning. PMID:24959653

  15. The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossa, Andrea; Liechti, Katharina; Zappa, Massimiliano; Bruen, Michael; Germann, Urs; Haase, Günther; Keil, Christian; Krahe, Peter

    2011-05-01

    Quantifying uncertainty in flood forecasting is a difficult task, given the multiple and strongly non-linear model components involved in such a system. Much effort has been and is being invested in the quest of dealing with uncertain precipitation observations and forecasts and the propagation of such uncertainties through hydrological and hydraulic models predicting river discharges and risk for inundation. The COST 731 Action is one of these and constitutes a European initiative which deals with the quantification of forecast uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecast systems. COST 731 addresses three major lines of development: (1) combining meteorological and hydrological models to form a forecast chain, (2) propagating uncertainty information through this chain and make it available to end users in a suitable form, (3) advancing high-resolution numerical weather prediction precipitation forecasts by using non-conventional observations from, for instance, radar to determine details in the initial conditions on scales smaller than what can be resolved by conventional observing systems. Recognizing the interdisciplinarity of the challenge COST 731 has organized its work forming Working Groups at the interfaces between the different scientific disciplines involved, i.e. between observation and atmospheric (and hydrological) modelling (WG-1), between atmospheric and hydrologic modelling (WG-2) and between hydrologic modelling and end-users (WG-3). This paper summarizes the COST 731 activities and its context, provides a review of the recent progress made in dealing with uncertainties in flood forecasting, and sets the scene for the papers of this Thematic Issue. In particular, a bibliometric analysis highlights the strong recent increase in addressing the uncertainty analysis in flood forecasting from an integrated perspective. Such a perspective necessarily involves the area of meteorology, hydrology, and decision making in order to take operational advantage

  16. Independent task Fourier filters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caulfield, H. John

    2001-11-01

    Since the early 1960s, a major part of optical computing systems has been Fourier pattern recognition, which takes advantage of high speed filter changes to enable powerful nonlinear discrimination in `real time.' Because filter has a task quite independent of the tasks of the other filters, they can be applied and evaluated in parallel or, in a simple approach I describe, in sequence very rapidly. Thus I use the name ITFF (independent task Fourier filter). These filters can also break very complex discrimination tasks into easily handled parts, so the wonderful space invariance properties of Fourier filtering need not be sacrificed to achieve high discrimination and good generalizability even for ultracomplex discrimination problems. The training procedure proceeds sequentially, as the task for a given filter is defined a posteriori by declaring it to be the discrimination of particular members of set A from all members of set B with sufficient margin. That is, we set the threshold to achieve the desired margin and note the A members discriminated by that threshold. Discriminating those A members from all members of B becomes the task of that filter. Those A members are then removed from the set A, so no other filter will be asked to perform that already accomplished task.

  17. Evaluation of seasonal forecast skill over China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roads, John O.; Chen, Shyh-Chin

    2003-06-01

    Since Sept. 26, 1997, the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making experimental, near real-time seasonal global forecasts. Images of these forecasts, at daily to seasonal time scales, are provided on the World Wide Web, and experimental digital forecast products are made available to international collaborators. Over Asia, these experimental forecasts are now being used to drive regional prediction and various application models at National Taiwan University (NTU) and the Hong Kong Observatory. Roads et al. [Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82 (2001) 639] and Terra Chen et al. [Atmos. Oceanogr. Sci. 12 (2003a) 377] previously discussed the basic forecast and analysis system. The purpose of this paper is to discuss specific synoptic characteristics of recent seasonal forecasts as a guide to further application and development.

  18. ECMWF SSW forecast evaluation using infrasound

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smets, Pieter; Assink, Jelle; Le Pichon, Alexis; Evers, Läslo

    2016-04-01

    Accurate prediction of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events is important for the performance of numerical weather prediction due to significant stratosphere--troposphere coupling. In this study, for the first time middle atmospheric numerical weather forecasts are evaluated using infrasound. A year of near continuous infrasound from Mt. Tolbachik (Kamchatka, Russian Federation) is compared with simulations using high resolution deterministic forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For the entire timespan the nowcast generally performs best, indicated by a higher continuity and and smaller bearing difference. However, focussing on the period around the 2013 major SSW shows that while the SSW onset is better captured by the ten day forecast, the recovery is better captured by the nowcast. As such, this study demonstrates the use of infrasound in the evaluation of middle atmospheric weather forecasts and therefore its potential in the assessment of tropospheric forecast skill.

  19. Priming Effects for Affective vs. Neutral Faces

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burton, Leslie A.; Rabin, Laura; Wyatt, Gwinne; Frohlich, Jonathan; Vardy, Susan B.; Dimitri, Diana

    2005-01-01

    Affective and Neutral Tasks (faces with negative or neutral content, with different lighting and orientation) requiring reaction time judgments of poser identity were administered to 32 participants. Speed and accuracy were better for the Affective than Neutral Task, consistent with literature suggesting facilitation of performance by affective…

  20. Operational Hydrologic Forecasts in the Columbia River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, K. Y.; Curry, J. A.; Webster, P. J.; Toma, V. E.; Jelinek, M.

    2013-12-01

    average discharge for water years 1879-2012) or greater were observed at TDA during the following periods: 29 March to 12 April, 5 May to 11 May, and 19 June to 29 June. Precipitation and temperature forecasts during these periods are shown along with changes in the model simulated snowpack. We evaluate the performance of the ensemble mean 10 days in advance of each of these three events, and comment on how the distribution of ensemble members affected forecast confidence in each situation.

  1. How rolling forecasting facilitates dynamic, agile planning.

    PubMed

    Miller, Debra; Allen, Michael; Schnittger, Stephanie; Hackman, Theresa

    2013-11-01

    Rolling forecasting may be used to replace or supplement the annual budget process. The rolling forecast typically builds on the organization's strategic financial plan, focusing on the first three years of plan projections and comparing the strategic financial plan assumptions with the organization's expected trajectory. Leaders can then identify and respond to gaps between the rolling forecast and the strategic financial plan on an ongoing basis. PMID:24340653

  2. Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian

    2015-04-01

    Seasonal forecasts have an important socio-economic value in hydro-meteorological forecasting. The applications are for example hydropower management, spring flood prediction and water resources management. The latter includes prediction of low flows, primordial for navigation, water quality assessment, droughts and agricultural water needs. Traditionally, seasonal hydrological forecasts are done using the observed discharge from previous years, so called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). With the recent increasing development of seasonal meteorological forecasts, the incentive for developing and improving seasonal hydrological forecasts is great. In this study, a seasonal hydrological forecast, driven by the ECMWF's System 4 (SEA), was compared with an ESP of modelled discharge using observations. The hydrological model used for both forecasts was the LISFLOOD model, run over a European domain with a spatial resolution of 5 km. The forecasts were produced from 1990 until the present time, with a daily time step. They were issued once a month with a lead time of seven months. The SEA forecasts are constituted of 15 ensemble members, extended to 51 members every three months. The ESP forecasts comprise 20 ensembles and served as a benchmark for this comparative study. The forecast systems were compared using a diverse set of verification metrics, such as continuous ranked probability scores, ROC curves, anomaly correlation coefficients and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients. These metrics were computed over several time-scales, ranging from a weekly to a six-months basis, for each season. The evaluation enabled the investigation of several aspects of seasonal forecasting, such as limits of predictability, timing of high and low flows, as well as exceedance of percentiles. The analysis aimed at exploring the spatial distribution and timely evolution of the limits of predictability.

  3. Operational Short-Term Flood Forecasting for Bangladesh: Application of ECMWF Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopson, T. M.; Webster, P. J.

    2004-12-01

    The country of Bangladesh frequently experiences severe catchment-scale flooding from the combined discharges of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Beginning in 2003, we have been disseminating upper-catchment discharge forecasts for this country to provide advanced warning for evacuation and relief measures. These forecasts are being generated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) shortterm ensemble weather forecasts and a combination of distributed and data-based modeling techniques. The forecasts from each of these models are combined using the multi-ensemble technique commonly employed in numerical weather prediction. This leads to a reduction in the overall forecast error and capitalizes on the strengths of each model during different periods of the monsoon season. In addition, the models are combined such that the probabilistic nature of the ensemble precipitation forecasts is retained while being combined with the discharge modeling error to produce true probabilistic forecasts of discharge that are being employed operationally.

  4. Towards Optimization of Reservoir Operations for Hydropower Production in East Africa: Application of Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Remote Sensing Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demissie, S. S.; Gebremichael, M.; Hopson, T. M.; Riddle, E. E.; Yeh, W. W. G.

    2015-12-01

    Hydroelectric generation and interconnections are the major priority areas of infrastructure development in Africa. A number of hydropower projects are currently being developed in East Africa in order to meet the energy demands of the fast growing economy in sustainable and climate-resilient manner. However, the performance efficiency of existing hydropower systems in Africa is much lower (about 30% in some cases) than their design capacity. This study proposes a decision support system (DSS) that integrates climate forecasts and remote sensing products into modeling and optimization of the hydropower systems in order to achieve reliable reservoir operations and enhance hydropower production efficiency. The DSS has three main components; climate system, hydrologic and water resources system, and optimization system. The climate system comprises of tools and interfaces for accessing, customizing and integrating climate forecasts and remote sensing data. The North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal retrospective forecasts for the East Africa Power Pool (EAPP) region are compared with the TRMM rainfall estimates and the CPC unified gauged rainfall data. The errors of the NMME seasonal forecasts have portrayed significant spatial and temporal variability in the EAPP region. The root mean square errors of the seasonal forecasts are relatively higher for wetter locations and months. However, the skills of the NMME seasonal forecasts are not significantly depreciating with lead time for the study region. The seasonal forecast errors vary from one model to another. Here, we present the skills of NMME seasonal forecasts, the physical factors and mechanisms that affect the skills. In addition, we discuss our methodology that derives the best seasonal forecasts for the study region from the NMME seasonal forecasts, and show how the climate forecast errors propagate through hydrologic models into hydrological forecasting.

  5. Theory of Choice in Bandit, Information Sampling and Foraging Tasks

    PubMed Central

    Averbeck, Bruno B.

    2015-01-01

    Decision making has been studied with a wide array of tasks. Here we examine the theoretical structure of bandit, information sampling and foraging tasks. These tasks move beyond tasks where the choice in the current trial does not affect future expected rewards. We have modeled these tasks using Markov decision processes (MDPs). MDPs provide a general framework for modeling tasks in which decisions affect the information on which future choices will be made. Under the assumption that agents are maximizing expected rewards, MDPs provide normative solutions. We find that all three classes of tasks pose choices among actions which trade-off immediate and future expected rewards. The tasks drive these trade-offs in unique ways, however. For bandit and information sampling tasks, increasing uncertainty or the time horizon shifts value to actions that pay-off in the future. Correspondingly, decreasing uncertainty increases the relative value of actions that pay-off immediately. For foraging tasks the time-horizon plays the dominant role, as choices do not affect future uncertainty in these tasks. PMID:25815510

  6. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  7. Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

  8. Wheat yield forecasts using LANDSAT data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colwell, J. E.; Rice, D. P.; Nalepka, R. F.

    1977-01-01

    Several considerations of winter wheat yield prediction using LANDSAT data were discussed. In addition, a simple technique which permits direct early season forecasts of wheat production was described.

  9. Optimized Flood Forecasts Using a Statistical Enemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silver, Micha; Fredj, Erick

    2016-04-01

    The method presented here assembles an optimized flood forecast from a set of consecutive WRF-Hydro simulations by applying coefficients which we derive from straightforward statistical procedures. Several government and research institutions that produce climate data offer ensemble forecasts, which merge predictions from different models to gain a more accurate fit to observed data. Existing ensemble forecasts present climate and weather predictions only. In this research we propose a novel approach to constructing hydrological ensembles for flood forecasting. The ensemble flood forecast is created by combining predictions from the same model, but initiated at different times. An operative flood forecasting system, run by the Israeli Hydrological Service, produces flood forecasts twice daily with a 72 hour forecast period. By collating the output from consecutive simulation runs we have access to multiple overlapping forecasts. We then apply two statistical procedures to blend these consecutive forecasts, resulting in a very close fit to observed flood runoff. We first employ cross-correlation with a time lag to determine a time shift for each of the original, consecutive forecasts. This shift corrects for two possible sources of error: slow or fast moving weather fronts in the base climate data; and mis-calibrations of the WRF-Hydro model in determining the rate of flow of surface runoff and in channels. We apply this time shift to all consecutive forecasts, then run a linear regression with the observed runoff data as the dependent variable and all shifted forecasts as the predictor variables. The solution to the linear regression equation is a set of coefficients that corrects the amplitude errors in the forecasts. These resulting regression coefficients are then applied to the consecutive forecasts producing a statistical ensemble which, by design, closely matches the observed runoff. After performing this procedure over many storm events in the Negev region

  10. The Economic Value of Air Quality Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson-Sumo, Tasha

    Both long-term and daily air quality forecasts provide an essential component to human health and impact costs. According the American Lung Association, the estimated current annual cost of air pollution related illness in the United States, adjusted for inflation (3% per year), is approximately $152 billion. Many of the risks such as hospital visits and morality are associated with poor air quality days (where the Air Quality Index is greater than 100). Groups such as sensitive groups become more susceptible to the resulting conditions and more accurate forecasts would help to take more appropriate precautions. This research focuses on evaluating the utility of air quality forecasting in terms of its potential impacts by building on air quality forecasting and economical metrics. Our analysis includes data collected during the summertime ozone seasons between 2010 and 2012 from air quality models for the Washington, DC/Baltimore, MD region. The metrics that are relevant to our analysis include: (1) The number of times that a high ozone or particulate matter (PM) episode is correctly forecasted, (2) the number of times that high ozone or PM episode is forecasted when it does not occur and (3) the number of times when the air quality forecast predicts a cleaner air episode when the air was observed to have high ozone or PM. Our collection of data included available air quality model forecasts of ozone and particulate matter data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s AIRNOW as well as observational data of ozone and particulate matter from Clean Air Partners. We evaluated the performance of the air quality forecasts with that of the observational data and found that the forecast models perform well for the Baltimore/Washington region and the time interval observed. We estimate the potential amount for the Baltimore/Washington region accrues to a savings of up to 5,905 lives and 5.9 billion dollars per year. This total assumes perfect compliance with

  11. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  12. Forecasting California’s earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kerr, R. A.

    1988-01-01

    For the first time, researchers have reached to a consensus on the threat of large earthquakes to California, things look no worse for Los Angles than before. It still has about a 60 percent chance of being shaken by a large earthquake sometime during the next 30 years. But other heavily populated areas of California, such as San Bernardino and the East Bay area of San Francisco, are now getting their fair share of attention. The new consensus also points up the considerable uncertainties invloved in earthquake forecasting

  13. Forecast Mekong: navigating changing waters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, Janine

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using research and data from the Mekong River Delta in Southeast Asia to compare restoration, conservation, and management efforts there with those done in other major river deltas, such as the Mississippi River Delta in the United States. The project provides a forum to engage regional partners in the Mekong Basin countries to share data and support local research efforts. Ultimately, Forecast Mekong will lead to more informed decisions about how to make the Mekong and Mississippi Deltas resilient in the face of climate change, economic stresses, and other impacts.

  14. Mental Models of Software Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hihn, J.; Griesel, A.; Bruno, K.; Fouser, T.; Tausworthe, R.

    1993-01-01

    The majority of software engineers resist the use of the currently available cost models. One problem is that the mathematical and statistical models that are currently available do not correspond with the mental models of the software engineers. In an earlier JPL funded study (Hihn and Habib-agahi, 1991) it was found that software engineers prefer to use analogical or analogy-like techniques to derive size and cost estimates, whereas curren CER's hide any analogy in the regression equations. In addition, the currently available models depend upon information which is not available during early planning when the most important forecasts must be made.

  15. Data analysis tasks: BATSE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paciesas, William S.

    1993-01-01

    Miscellaneous tasks related to the operation of, and analysis of data from, the Burst and Transient Experiment (BATSE) on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) were performed. The results are summarized and relevant references are included.

  16. Will We Hit a Wall? Forecasting Bottlenecks to Whole Brain Emulation Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alstott, Jeff

    2013-12-01

    Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible replication of human brain dynamics that reproduces human behavior. If created, WBE would have significant impact on human society, and forecasts frequently place WBE as arriving within a century. However, WBE would be a complex technology with a complex network of prerequisite technologies. Most forecasts only consider a fraction of this technology network. The unconsidered portions of the network may contain bottlenecks, which are slowly-developing technologies that would impede the development of WBE. Here I describe how bottlenecks in the network can be non-obvious, and the merits of identifying them early. I show that bottlenecks may be predicted even with noisy forecasts. Accurate forecasts of WBE development must incorporate potential bottlenecks, which can be found using detailed descriptions of the WBE technology network. Bottlenecks identification can also increase the impact of WBE researchers by directing effort to those technologies that will immediately affect the timeline of WBE development

  17. Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station: Phase I Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This report describes the results of the ANU's (Applied Meteorology Unit) Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds. The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The Keith Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A 7 year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. In all climatologies, the average and peak wind speeds were highly variable in time. This indicated that the development of a peak wind forecasting tool would be difficult. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. The climatologies and PDFs provide tools with which to make peak wind forecasts that are critical to safe operations.

  18. Seasonal forecast skill of Arctic sea ice area in a dynamical forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigmond, M.; Fyfe, J. C.; Flato, G. M.; Kharin, V. V.; Merryfield, W. J.

    2013-02-01

    AbstractWe assess the seasonal <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill of pan-Arctic sea ice area in a dynamical <span class="hlt">forecast</span> system that includes interactive atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice components. <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> skill is quantified by the correlation skill score computed from 12 month ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> initialized in each month between January 1979 to December 2009. We find that <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill is substantial for all lead times and predicted seasons except spring but is mainly due to the strong downward trend in observations for lead times of about 4 months and longer. Skill is higher when evaluated against an observation-based dataset with larger trends. The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill when linear trends are removed from the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and verifying observations is small and generally not statistically significant at lead times greater than 2 to 3 months, except for January/February when <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill is moderately high up to an 11 month lead time. For short lead times, high trend-independent <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill is found for October, while low skill is found for November/December. This is consistent with the seasonal variation of observed lag correlations. For most predicted months and lead times, trend-independent <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill exceeds that of an anomaly persistence <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, highlighting the potential for dynamical <span class="hlt">forecast</span> systems to provide valuable seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011NHESS..11.1529V&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011NHESS..11.1529V&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for flash-flood ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasting</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Vincendon, B.; Ducrocq, V.; Nuissier, O.; Vié, B.</p> <p>2011-05-01</p> <p>Mediterranean intense weather events often lead to devastating flash-floods. Extending the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> lead times further than the watershed response times, implies the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to drive hydrological models. However, the nature of the precipitating events and the temporal and spatial scales of the watershed response make them difficult to <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, even using a high-resolution convection-permitting NWP deterministic <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>. This study proposes a new method to sample the uncertainties of high-resolution NWP precipitation <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> in order to quantify the predictability of the streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. We have developed a perturbation method based on convection-permitting NWP-model error statistics. It produces short-term precipitation ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> from single-value meteorological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. These rainfall ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are then fed into a hydrological model dedicated to flash-flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> to produce ensemble streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. The verification on two flash-flood events shows that this <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> ensemble performs better than the deterministic <span class="hlt">forecast</span>. The performance of the precipitation perturbation method has also been found to be broadly as good as that obtained using a state-of-the-art research convection-permitting NWP ensemble, while requiring less computing time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015AGUFM.H33D1635D&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015AGUFM.H33D1635D&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">An Analytical Framework for Flood Water Conservation Considering <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Uncertainty and Acceptable Risk</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ding, W.; Zhang, C.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Reservoir water levels are usually not allowed to exceed the flood limited water level (FLWL) during flood season, which neglects the meteorological and real-time <span class="hlt">forecast</span> information and leads to the great waste of water resources. With the development of weather <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>, hydrologic modeling, and hydro-climatic teleconnection, the streamflow <span class="hlt">forecast</span> precision have improved a lot, which provides the technical support for the flood water utilization. This paper addresses how much flood water can be conserved for use after the flood season through the operation of reservoir based on uncertain <span class="hlt">forecast</span> information by taking into account the residual flood control capacity (the difference between flood conveyance capacity and the expected inflow in a lead time). A two-stage model for dynamic control of the flood limited water level (the maximum allowed water level during the flood season, DC-FLWL) is established considering <span class="hlt">forecast</span> uncertainty and acceptable flood risk. It is found that DC-FLWL is applicable when the reservoir inflow ranges from small to medium levels of the historical records, while both <span class="hlt">forecast</span> uncertainty and acceptable risk in the downstream <span class="hlt">affect</span> the feasible space of DC-FLWL. As <span class="hlt">forecast</span> uncertainty increases (under a given risk level) or as acceptable risk level decreases (under a given <span class="hlt">forecast</span> uncertainty level), the minimum required safety margin for flood control increases, and the chance for DC-FLWL decreases. The derived hedging rules from the modeling framework illustrate either the dominant role of water conservation or flood control or the tradeoff between the two objectives under different levels of <span class="hlt">forecast</span> uncertainty and acceptable risk. These rules may provide useful guidelines for conserving water from flood, especially in the area with heavy water stress.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active"><span>23</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_23 --> <div id="page_24" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active"><span>24</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="461"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1992JApMe..31..465Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1992JApMe..31..465Y"><span id="translatedtitle">A Streamflow <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Model for Central Arizona.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Young, Kenneth C.; Gall, Robert L.</p> <p>1992-05-01</p> <p>A spring-runoff <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model for central Arizona was developed based on multiple discriminant analysis. More than 6500 potential predictor variables were analyzed, including local precipitation and temperature variables, as well as global sea level pressure variables. The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model was evaluated on nine years exclusive of the years on which the model was based. <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> are provided in the form of a cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the expected runoff, based on analogs. A ranked probability score to evaluate <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill for the cdf <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> was developed. Ranked probability skill scores ranged from 25% to 45%.Local and global <span class="hlt">forecast</span> models were developed and compared to the combined data source model. The global <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model was equivalent in skill to the local <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model. The combined model exhibited a marked improvement in skill over either the local or global models.Three recurrent patterns in the predictor variables used by the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model are analyzed in some depth. Above-normal pressure at Raoul Island northeast of New Zealand 14 to 18 months prior to the event <span class="hlt">forecast</span> was found to be associated with above-normal runoff. A westward shift of the Bermuda high, as evidenced by the pressure change at Charleston, South Carolina, from December to August of the preceding year, was found to be associated with above-normal runoff. Above-normal pressure at Port Moresby, New Guinea coupled with below-normal pressure at San Diego, California, the month prior to the <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, was found to be associated with above-normal runoff.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009ems..confE..68W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009ems..confE..68W"><span id="translatedtitle">Improved low visibility <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> at Amsterdam Airport</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wijngaard, J.; Vogelezang, D.; Maat, N.; van Bruggen, H.</p> <p>2009-09-01</p> <p>Accurate, reliable and unambiguous information concerning the actual and expected (low) visibility conditions at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is very important for the available operational flow capacity. Therefore visibility <span class="hlt">forecast</span> errors can have a negative impact on safety and operational expenses. KNMI has performed an update of the visibility <span class="hlt">forecast</span> system in close collaboration with the main users of the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> (Air Traffic Control, the airport authorities and KLM airlines). This automatic <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system consists of a Numerical Weather Prediction Model (Hirlam) with a statistical post processing module on top of it. Output of both components is supplied to a human <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> who issues a special probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecast</span> bulletin. This bulletin is tailored to the specific requirements of the airport community. The improvements made to the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> system are twofold: 1) In addition to the Meteorological Optical Range (MOR) values, RVR (Runway Visual Range) is <span class="hlt">forecasted</span>. Since RVR depends on both MOR and the local Background Luminance, a (deterministic) statistical <span class="hlt">forecast</span> for the latter has been developed. 2) Another improvement was achieved by calculating joint probabilities for specific combinations of visibility and cloud base height for thresholds which have direct impact on the flow capacity at the airport. The development of this new visibility <span class="hlt">forecast</span> will be presented briefly. Also a few verification results will be shown to demonstrate the improvements made. Finally, the importance of explaining the user the use of the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> information, in relation to their decision making process, will be discussed. For that reason, a simple guideline model to make a cost-optimal choice will be introduced.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JHyd..538..754M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JHyd..538..754M"><span id="translatedtitle">Streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> using functional regression</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Masselot, Pierre; Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>Streamflow, as a natural phenomenon, is continuous in time and so are the meteorological variables which influence its variability. In practice, it can be of interest to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> the whole flow curve instead of points (daily or hourly). To this end, this paper introduces the functional linear models and adapts it to hydrological <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>. More precisely, functional linear models are regression models based on curves instead of single values. They allow to consider the whole process instead of a limited number of time points or features. We apply these models to analyse the flow volume and the whole streamflow curve during a given period by using precipitations curves. The functional model is shown to lead to encouraging results. The potential of functional linear models to detect special features that would have been hard to see otherwise is pointed out. The functional model is also compared to the artificial neural network approach and the advantages and disadvantages of both models are discussed. Finally, future research directions involving the functional model in hydrology are presented.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.2307T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.2307T"><span id="translatedtitle">Earthquakes - Volcanoes (Causes and <span class="hlt">Forecast</span>)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tsiapas, E.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>EARTHQUAKES - VOLCANOES (CAUSES AND <span class="hlt">FORECAST</span>) ELIAS TSIAPAS RESEARCHER NEA STYRA, EVIA,GREECE TEL.0302224041057 tsiapas@hol.gr The earthquakes are caused by large quantities of liquids (e.g. H2O, H2S, SO2, ect.) moving through lithosphere and pyrosphere (MOHO discontinuity) till they meet projections (mountains negative projections or projections coming from sinking lithosphere). The liquids are moved from West Eastward carried away by the pyrosphere because of differential speed of rotation of the pyrosphere by the lithosphere. With starting point an earthquake which was noticed at an area and from statistical studies, we know when, where and what rate an earthquake may be, which earthquake is caused by the same quantity of liquids, at the next east region. The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> of an earthquake ceases to be valid if these components meet a crack in the lithosphere (e.g. limits of lithosphere plates) or a volcano crater. In this case the liquids come out into the atmosphere by the form of gasses carrying small quantities of lava with them (volcano explosion).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AdG....29...77S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AdG....29...77S"><span id="translatedtitle">The use of MOGREPS ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> in operational flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> systems across England and Wales</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Schellekens, J.; Weerts, A. H.; Moore, R. J.; Pierce, C. E.; Hildon, S.</p> <p>2011-03-01</p> <p>Operational flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> systems share a fundamental challenge: <span class="hlt">forecast</span> uncertainty which needs to be considered when making a flood warning decision. One way of representing this uncertainty is through employing an ensemble approach. This paper presents research funded by the Environment Agency in which ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are utilised and tested for operational use. The form of ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecast</span> used is the Met Office short-range product called MOGREPS. It is tested for operational use within the Environment Agency's National Flood <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> System (NFFS) for England and Wales. Currently, the NFFS uses deterministic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> only. The operational configuration of the NFFS for Thames Region is extended to trial the use of the new ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> in support of probabilistic flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>. Evaluation includes considering issues of model performance, configuration (how to fit the ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> within the current configurations), data volumes, run times and options for displaying probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. Although ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> available from MOGREPS are not extensive enough to fully verify product performance, it is concluded that their use within current Environment Agency regional flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> systems can provide better information to the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> than use of the deterministic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> alone. Of note are the small number of false alarms of river flow exceedance generated when using MOGREPS as input and that small flow events are also <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> rather well, notwithstanding the rather coarse resolution of the MOGREPS grid (24 km) compared to the studied catchments. In addition, it is concluded that, with careful configuration in NFFS, MOGREPS can be used in existing systems without a significant increase in system load.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015AGUFMGC11H1110M&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015AGUFMGC11H1110M&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Modeled <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> of Dengue Fever in San Juan, Puerto Rico Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Morin, C.; Quattrochi, D. A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Dengue fever (DF) is an important mosquito transmitted disease that is strongly influenced by meteorological and environmental conditions. Recent research has focused on <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> DF case numbers based on meteorological data. However, these <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> tools have generally relied on empirical models that require long DF time series to train. Additionally, their accuracy has been tested retrospectively, using past meteorological data. Consequently, the operational utility of the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are still in question because the error associated with weather and climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are not reflected in the results. Using up-to-date weekly dengue case numbers for model parameterization and weather <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data as meteorological input, we produced weekly <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of DF cases in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Each week, the past weeks' case counts were used to re-parameterize a process-based DF model driven with updated weather <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data to generate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of DF case numbers. Real-time weather <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data was produced using the Weather Research and <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system enhanced using additional high-resolution NASA satellite data. This methodology was conducted in a weekly iterative process with each DF <span class="hlt">forecast</span> being evaluated using county-level DF cases reported by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. The one week DF <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> were accurate especially considering the two sources of model error. First, weather <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> were sometimes inaccurate and generally produced lower than observed temperatures. Second, the DF model was often overly influenced by the previous weeks DF case numbers, though this phenomenon could be lessened by increasing the number of simulations included in the <span class="hlt">forecast</span>. Although these results are promising, we would like to develop a methodology to produce longer range <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> so that public health workers can better prepare for dengue epidemics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110011476','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110011476"><span id="translatedtitle">Anvil <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and <span class="hlt">forecasters</span> from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> as one of their most challenging <span class="hlt">tasks</span> when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps <span class="hlt">forecasters</span> estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this <span class="hlt">task</span>, SMG <span class="hlt">tasked</span> the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21382880','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21382880"><span id="translatedtitle">Application and evaluation of <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> methods for municipal solid waste generation in an Eastern-European city.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rimaityte, Ingrida; Ruzgas, Tomas; Denafas, Gintaras; Racys, Viktoras; Martuzevicius, Dainius</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> of generation of municipal solid waste (MSW) in developing countries is often a challenging <span class="hlt">task</span> due to the lack of data and selection of suitable <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> method. This article aimed to select and evaluate several methods for MSW <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> in a medium-scaled Eastern European city (Kaunas, Lithuania) with rapidly developing economics, with respect to affluence-related and seasonal impacts. The MSW generation was <span class="hlt">forecast</span> with respect to the economic activity of the city (regression modelling) and using time series analysis. The modelling based on social-economic indicators (regression implemented in LCA-IWM model) showed particular sensitivity (deviation from actual data in the range from 2.2 to 20.6%) to external factors, such as the synergetic effects of affluence parameters or changes in MSW collection system. For the time series analysis, the combination of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal exponential smoothing (SES) techniques were found to be the most accurate (mean absolute percentage error equalled to 6.5). Time series analysis method was very valuable for <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> the weekly variation of waste generation data (r (2) > 0.87), but the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> yearly increase should be verified against the data obtained by regression modelling. The methods and findings of this study may assist the experts, decision-makers and scientists performing <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of MSW generation, especially in developing countries. PMID:21382880</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20130012628','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20130012628"><span id="translatedtitle">Developing a Peak Wind Probability <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Lambert, WInifred; Roeder, William</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>This conference presentation describes the development of a peak wind <span class="hlt">forecast</span> tool to assist <span class="hlt">forecasters</span> in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important <span class="hlt">forecast</span> element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> peak winds, the 45 WS <span class="hlt">tasked</span> the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind <span class="hlt">forecast</span> tool to assist in <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> LCC violations. The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002EGSGA..27.2284M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002EGSGA..27.2284M"><span id="translatedtitle">Probabilistic Prediction of European Winter Temperature and Their Application Using The Ecmwf Seasonal <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> System 1 and 2</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Müller, W.; Appenzeller, Ch.</p> <p></p> <p>There is rising interest in economical applications of seasonal climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, for example for weather risk and weather derivative markets. However seasonal <span class="hlt">forecast</span>- ing based on coupled atmosphere -ocean models is a complex <span class="hlt">task</span>. As a consequence of the chaotic nature of the climate system seasonal <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> can not be calculated in a deterministic sense. They need to be calculated in a probabilistic way by using an ensemble of model runs with slightly different initial conditions. Here we use the ECMWF experimental ensemble prediction system 1 and 2 to explore the sensitivity of mid-latitude winter mean temperature <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> on different drift correction methods. The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> quality is quantified in a probabilistic framework using ranked proba- bility skill scores (RPSS). It is shown that a drift correction method that accounts for system 1 decadal climate variability (such as the NAO) has a positive, but weak impact on the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill, especially over Europe. As an economic application we evaluate the skill of three month averaged heating degree days <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> over Europe.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=wind&pg=5&id=EJ1064476','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=wind&pg=5&id=EJ1064476"><span id="translatedtitle">School Science Inspired by Improving Weather <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Reid, Heather; Renfrew, Ian A.; Vaughan, Geraint</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>High winds and heavy rain are regular features of the British weather, and <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> these events accurately is a major priority for the Met Office and other <span class="hlt">forecast</span> providers. This is the challenge facing DIAMET, a project involving university groups from Manchester, Leeds, Reading, and East Anglia, together with the Met Office. DIAMET is part…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhDT.......268A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhDT.......268A"><span id="translatedtitle">Solar power deployment: <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> and planning</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Alanazi, Mohana</p> <p></p> <p>The rapid growth of Photovoltaic (PV) technology has been very visible over the past decade. Recently, the penetration of PV plants to the existing grid has significantly increased. Such increase in the integration of solar energy has brought attention to the solar irradiance <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>. This thesis presents a thorough research of PV technology, how solar power can be <span class="hlt">forecasted</span>, and PV planning under uncertainty. Over the last decade, the PV was one of the fastest growing renewable energy technologies. However, the PV system output varies based on weather conditions. Due to the variability and the uncertainty of solar power, the integration of the electricity generated by PV system is considered one of the challenges that have confronted the PV system. This thesis proposes a new <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> method to reduce the uncertainty of the PV output so the power operator will be able to accommodate its variability. The new <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> method proposes different processes to be undertaken before the data is fed to the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> model. The method converts the data sets included in the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> from non-stationary data to a stationary data by applying different processes including: removing the offset, removing night time solar values, and normalization. The new <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> method aims to reduce the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> error and analyzes the error effect on the long term planning through calculating the payback period considering different errors.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016Nonli..29.2888Z&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016Nonli..29.2888Z&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Analog <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> with dynamics-adapted kernels</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhao, Zhizhen; Giannakis, Dimitrios</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>Analog <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> is a nonparametric technique introduced by Lorenz in 1969 which predicts the evolution of states of a dynamical system (or observables defined on the states) by following the evolution of the sample in a historical record of observations which most closely resembles the current initial data. Here, we introduce a suite of <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> methods which improve traditional analog <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> by combining ideas from kernel methods developed in harmonic analysis and machine learning and state-space reconstruction for dynamical systems. A key ingredient of our approach is to replace single-analog <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> with weighted ensembles of analogs constructed using local similarity kernels. The kernels used here employ a number of dynamics-dependent features designed to improve <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill, including Takens’ delay-coordinate maps (to recover information in the initial data lost through partial observations) and a directional dependence on the dynamical vector field generating the data. Mathematically, our approach is closely related to kernel methods for out-of-sample extension of functions, and we discuss alternative strategies based on the Nyström method and the multiscale Laplacian pyramids technique. We illustrate these techniques in applications to <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> in a low-order deterministic model for atmospheric dynamics with chaotic metastability, and interannual-scale <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> in the North Pacific sector of a comprehensive climate model. We find that <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> based on kernel-weighted ensembles have significantly higher skill than the conventional approach following a single analog.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED082497.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED082497.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">A Delphi <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> of Technology in Education.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Robinson, Burke E.</p> <p></p> <p>The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> reported here surveys expected utilization levels, organizational structures, and values concerning technology in education in 1990. The focus is upon educational technology and <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> methodology; televised instruction, computer-assisted instruction (CAI), and information services are considered. The methodology employed…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/Publications.htm?seq_no_115=300991','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/Publications.htm?seq_no_115=300991"><span id="translatedtitle">Climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for corn producer decision making</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/services/TekTran.htm">Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Corn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, could substantially reduce uncertai...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70046866','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70046866"><span id="translatedtitle">Chesapeake Bay hypoxic volume <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and results</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Scavia, Donald; Evans, Mary Anne</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>The 2013 <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> - Given the average Jan-May 2013 total nitrogen load of 162,028 kg/day, this summer’s hypoxia volume <span class="hlt">forecast</span> is 6.1 km3, slightly smaller than average size for the period of record and almost the same as 2012. The late July 2013 measured volume was 6.92 km3.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=ARIMA&id=EJ842702','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=ARIMA&id=EJ842702"><span id="translatedtitle">Some Initiatives in a Business <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> Course</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Chu, Singfat</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>The paper reports some initiatives to freshen up the typical undergraduate business <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> course. These include (1) students doing research and presentations on contemporary tools and industry practices such as neural networks and collaborative <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> (2) insertion of Logistic Regression in the curriculum (3) productive use of applets…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=social+AND+forecasting&pg=4&id=EJ547715','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=social+AND+forecasting&pg=4&id=EJ547715"><span id="translatedtitle">Methods and Techniques of Revenue <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Caruthers, J. Kent; Wentworth, Cathi L.</p> <p>1997-01-01</p> <p>Revenue <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> is the critical first step in most college and university budget-planning processes. While it seems a straightforward exercise, effective <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> requires consideration of a number of interacting internal and external variables, including demographic trends, economic conditions, and broad social priorities. The challenge…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1713443H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1713443H"><span id="translatedtitle">Flood <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> in Wales: Challenges and Solutions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>How, Andrew; Williams, Christopher</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>With steep, fast-responding river catchments, exposed coastal reaches with large tidal ranges and large population densities in some of the most at-risk areas; flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> in Wales presents many varied challenges. Utilising advances in computing power and learning from best practice within the United Kingdom and abroad have seen significant improvements in recent years - however, many challenges still remain. Developments in computing and increased processing power comes with a significant price tag; greater numbers of data sources and ensemble feeds brings a better understanding of uncertainty but the wealth of data needs careful management to ensure a clear message of risk is disseminated; new modelling techniques utilise better and faster computation, but lack the history of record and experience gained from the continued use of more established <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> models. As a flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> team we work to develop coastal and fluvial <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> models, set them up for operational use and manage the duty role that runs the models in real time. An overview of our current operational flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system will be presented, along with a discussion on some of the solutions we have in place to address the challenges we face. These include: • real-time updating of fluvial models • rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> verification • ensemble <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data • longer range <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data • contingency models • offshore to nearshore wave transformation • calculation of wave overtopping</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002AGUFM.H12G..03W&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002AGUFM.H12G..03W&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Streamflow Ensemble Generation using Climate <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Watkins, D. W.; O'Connell, S.; Wei, W.; Nykanen, D.; Mahmoud, M.</p> <p>2002-12-01</p> <p>Although significant progress has been made in understanding the correlation between large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and regional streamflow anomalies, there is a general perception that seasonal climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are not being used to the fullest extent possible for optimal water resources management. Possible contributing factors are limited knowledge and understanding of climate processes and prediction capabilities, noise in climate signals and inaccuracies in <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, and hesitancy on the part of water managers to apply new information or methods that could expose them to greater liability. This work involves a decision support model based on streamflow ensembles developed for the Lower Colorado River Authority in Central Texas. Predicative skill is added to ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> that are based on climatology by conditioning the ensembles on observable climate indicators, including streamflow (persistence), soil moisture, land surface temperatures, and large-scale recurrent patterns such as the El Ni¤o-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A Bayesian procedure for updating ensemble probabilities is outlined, and various skill scores are reviewed for evaluating <span class="hlt">forecast</span> performance. Verification of the ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> using a resampling procedure indicates a small but potentially significant improvement in <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill that could be exploited in seasonal water management decisions. The ultimate goal of this work will be explicit incorporation of climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> in reservoir operating rules and estimation of the value of the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active"><span>24</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_24 --> <div id="page_25" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active"><span>25</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="481"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010GeoJI.181..382Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010GeoJI.181..382Z"><span id="translatedtitle">Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and <span class="hlt">forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhuang, Jiancang</p> <p>2010-04-01</p> <p>This paper presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of <span class="hlt">forecast</span> and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> makes a prediction or <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points betted by the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. We also calculate the upper bound of the gambling score when the true model is a renewal process, the stress release model or the ETAS model and when the reference model is the Poisson model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/5347900','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/5347900"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Forecast</span> of geothermal-drilling activity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.</p> <p>1982-07-01</p> <p>The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are <span class="hlt">forecasted</span>. Results of the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED340733.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED340733.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> Enrollments with Fuzzy Time Series.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Song, Qiang; Chissom, Brad S.</p> <p></p> <p>The concept of fuzzy time series is introduced and used to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> the enrollment of a university. Fuzzy time series, an aspect of fuzzy set theory, <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> enrollment using a first-order time-invariant model. To evaluate the model, the conventional linear regression technique is applied and the predicted values obtained are compared to the…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=Overpopulation&pg=3&id=EJ078615','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=Overpopulation&pg=3&id=EJ078615"><span id="translatedtitle">Resources and Long-Range <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Smith, Waldo E.</p> <p>1973-01-01</p> <p>The author argues that <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of quick depletion of resources in the environment as a result of overpopulation and increased usage may not be free from error. Ignorance still exists in understanding the recovery mechanisms of nature. Long-range <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are likely to be wrong in such situations. (PS)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19730024131','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19730024131"><span id="translatedtitle">Techniques for <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> Air Passenger Traffic</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Taneja, N.</p> <p>1972-01-01</p> <p>The basic techniques of <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> the air passenger traffic are outlined. These techniques can be broadly classified into four categories: judgmental, time-series analysis, market analysis and analytical. The differences between these methods exist, in part, due to the degree of formalization of the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> procedure. Emphasis is placed on describing the analytical method.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016EGUGA..1816659F&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016EGUGA..1816659F&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Evaluation and first <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of the German Climate <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> System 1 (GCFS1)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fröhlich, Kristina; Baehr, Johanna; Müller, Wolfgang; Bunzel, Felix; Pohlmann, Holger; Dobrynin, Mikhail</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>We present the near-operational seasonal <span class="hlt">forecast</span> system GCFS1 (German Climate <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> System version 1), based on the CMIP5 version of the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM-LR. For GCFS1 we also present a detailed assessment on the predictive skill of the model. GCFS1 has been developed in cooperation between the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, University of Hamburg and German Meteorological Service (DWD), the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are conducted by DWD. The system is running at ECMWF with a re-<span class="hlt">forecast</span> ensemble of 15 member and a <span class="hlt">forecast</span> ensemble of 30 member. The re-<span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are initialised with full field nudging in the atmosphere (using ERA Interim), in the ocean (using ORAS4) and in the sea-ice component (using NSIDC sea-ice concentration). For the initialization of the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> analyses from the ECMWF NWP model and recent ORAS4 analyses are taken. The ensemble perturbations are, for both re-<span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, generated through bred vectors in the ocean which provide initial perturbations for the ensemble in combination with simple physics perturbations in the atmosphere. Evaluation of the re-<span class="hlt">forecasted</span> climatologies will be presented for different variables, start dates and regions. The first winter <span class="hlt">forecast</span> during the strong El Niño phase is also subject of evaluation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.2892H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.2892H"><span id="translatedtitle">Monthly <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> of agricultural pests in Switzerland</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hirschi, M.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Samietz, J.; Calanca, P.; Weigel, A. P.; Fischer, A. M.; Rotach, M. W.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Given the repercussions of pests and diseases on agricultural production, detailed <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> tools have been developed to simulate the degree of infestation depending on actual weather conditions. The life cycle of pests is most successfully predicted if the micro-climate of the immediate environment (habitat) of the causative organisms can be simulated. Sub-seasonal pest <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> therefore require weather information for the relevant habitats and the appropriate time scale. The pest <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system SOPRA (www.sopra.info) currently in operation in Switzerland relies on such detailed weather information, using hourly weather observations up to the day the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> is issued, but only a climatology for the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> period. Here, we aim at improving the skill of SOPRA <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> by transforming the weekly information provided by ECMWF monthly <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> (MOFCs) into hourly weather series as required for the prediction of upcoming life phases of the codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. Due to the probabilistic nature of operational monthly <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and the limited spatial and temporal resolution, their information needs to be post-processed for use in a pest model. In this study, we developed a statistical downscaling approach for MOFCs that includes the following steps: (i) application of a stochastic weather generator to generate a large pool of daily weather series consistent with the climate at a specific location, (ii) a subsequent re-sampling of weather series from this pool to optimally represent the evolution of the weekly MOFC anomalies, and (iii) a final extension to hourly weather series suitable for the pest <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> model. Results show a clear improvement in the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill of occurrences of upcoming codling moth life phases when incorporating MOFCs as compared to the operational pest <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system. This is true both in terms of root mean squared errors and of the continuous rank probability scores of the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997evwc.book.....K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997evwc.book.....K"><span id="translatedtitle">Economic Value of Weather and Climate <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Katz, Richard W.; Murphy, Allan H.</p> <p>1997-06-01</p> <p>Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects of weather prediction. Chapters by area specialists provide a comprehensive view of this timely topic. They encompass <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> on human behavior. Economic Value of Weather and Climate <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential text for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/103301','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/103301"><span id="translatedtitle">Load <span class="hlt">forecast</span> and need for power</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p></p> <p>1995-10-01</p> <p>This portion of the Energy Vision 2020 draft report discusses the models used for <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> the load growth over the period of this report. To deal with uncertainties in load growth, TVA has used a range of <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>: low, medium, and high. Based on the medium <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, TVA has determined that an additional 800 MWe will be required by 1998 and 16,500 MWe by 2020. based on the high growth <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, additional power will be needed in 1997 and increasing thereafter. Based on the low growth <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, no additional capacity would be needed during the period of this report. These estimates include a reserve margin of 15% through 1997, 13% average through the period 1998 to 2010, and 12% average during the remainder of the reporting period.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/13795','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/13795"><span id="translatedtitle">Uncertainty in dispersion <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> using meteorological ensembles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Chin, H N; Leach, M J</p> <p>1999-07-12</p> <p>The usefulness of dispersion <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> depends on proper interpretation of results. Understanding the uncertainty in model predictions and the range of possible outcomes is critical for determining the optimal course of action in response to terrorist attacks. One of the objectives for the Modeling and Prediction initiative is creating tools for emergency planning for special events such as the upcoming the Olympics. Meteorological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> hours to days in advance are used to estimate the dispersion at the time of the event. However, there is uncertainty in any meteorological <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, arising from both errors in the data (both initial conditions and boundary conditions) and from errors in the model. We use ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> to estimate the uncertainty in the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and the range of possible outcomes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012HESSD...913569R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012HESSD...913569R"><span id="translatedtitle">Do probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> lead to better decisions?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ramos, M. H.; van Andel, S. J.; Pappenberger, F.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also start putting attention to ways of communicating the probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> to decision makers. Communicating probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> includes preparing tools and products for visualization, but also requires understanding how decision makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real-time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision makers. Answers were collected and analyzed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if indeed we make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/698698','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/698698"><span id="translatedtitle">Guideline for developing an ozone <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> program</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Dye, T.S.; MacDonald, C.P.; Anderson, C.B.</p> <p>1999-07-01</p> <p>The purpose of this document is to provide guidance to help air quality agencies develop, operate, and evaluate ozone <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> programs. This guidance document provides: Background information about ozone and the weather`s effect on ozone; A list of how ozone <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are currently used; A summary and evaluation of methods currently used to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> ozone; and Steps you can follow to develop and operate an ozone <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> program. The intended audience of this document is project managers, meteorologists, air quality analysts, and data analysts. Project managers can learn about the level of effort needed to set up and operate a <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> program. Meteorologists can learn about the various methods to predict ozone and the steps needed to create a program.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006SPIE.6358E..54C&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006SPIE.6358E..54C&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Demand <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model based on CRM</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao</p> <p>2006-11-01</p> <p>With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand <span class="hlt">forecast</span> of customer relationship management, the traditional <span class="hlt">forecast</span> methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and <span class="hlt">forecast</span> the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2013HESS...17.2219R&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2013HESS...17.2219R&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Do probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> lead to better decisions?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ramos, M. H.; van Andel, S. J.; Pappenberger, F.</p> <p>2013-06-01</p> <p>The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.G33A0831S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.G33A0831S"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> the Chilean Tsunami, February 27 2010</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sterling, K.; Knight, W.; Whitmore, P.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>The West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WC/ATWC) is responsible for issuing tsunami warnings, advisories, and watches for the United States and Canadian coastlines. Utilizing well defined criteria related to earthquake magnitude and location an initial alert message is transmitted. The situation is monitored closely and analyzed using <span class="hlt">forecast</span> models and real-time sea level observations. If a tsunami is detected then a tsunami warning, advisory, or watch is issued. On February 27, 2010 at 06:34:14 UTC, a M8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Maule, Chile, initiating a tsunami that propagated throughout the Pacific Ocean. With approximately 13 hours before the tsunami arrived on the US west coast, the WC/ATWC utilized all available <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> tools to refine predicted tsunami amplitudes and inundation estimates, thereby providing the best possible estimates to emergency managers and the public. The guidance from the tsunami <span class="hlt">forecast</span> models, used in concurrence with sea-level observations, resulted in a tsunami advisory being issued for the Pacific coastal regions of the United States and Canada, the extent of which was expanded and then decreased as the event evolved. The WC/ATWC used two tsunami <span class="hlt">forecast</span> models: the Alaska Tsunami <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Model (ATFM) and the Short-term Inundation <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> for Tsunamis (SIFT) to formulate a solution. Each model provided an initial tsunami <span class="hlt">forecast</span> based on the earthquake magnitude and location that was subsequently refined over the following hours as Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) observations became available. After the DART data was assimilated into the models, the two <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> were used in conjunction to publicly issue predicted maximum amplitudes for 77 locations along the US west coast and in Alaska. As the tsunami reached the US coastline, tide gauge observations were used in scaling the <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> maximum amplitudes from the ATFM, thereby increasing the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> accuracy</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040088574&hterms=cognitive+psychology&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3Dcognitive%2Bpsychology','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040088574&hterms=cognitive+psychology&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3Dcognitive%2Bpsychology"><span id="translatedtitle">Switching between simple cognitive <span class="hlt">tasks</span>: the interaction of top-down and bottom-up factors</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Ruthruff, E.; Remington, R. W.; Johnston, J. C.</p> <p>2001-01-01</p> <p>How do top-down factors (e.g., <span class="hlt">task</span> expectancy) and bottom-up factors (e.g., <span class="hlt">task</span> recency) interact to produce an overall level of <span class="hlt">task</span> readiness? This question was addressed by factorially manipulating <span class="hlt">task</span> expectancy and <span class="hlt">task</span> repetition in a <span class="hlt">task</span>-switching paradigm. The effects of expectancy and repetition on response time tended to interact underadditively, but only because the traditional binary <span class="hlt">task</span>-repetition variable lumps together all switch trials, ignoring variation in <span class="hlt">task</span> lag. When the <span class="hlt">task</span>-recency variable was scaled continuously, all 4 experiments instead showed additivity between expectancy and recency. The results indicated that expectancy and recency influence different stages of mental processing. One specific possibility (the configuration-execution model) is that <span class="hlt">task</span> expectancy <span class="hlt">affects</span> the time required to configure upcoming central operations, whereas <span class="hlt">task</span> recency <span class="hlt">affects</span> the time required to actually execute those central operations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4859192','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4859192"><span id="translatedtitle">A Reverse Stroop <span class="hlt">Task</span> with Mouse Tracking</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Yamamoto, Naohide; Incera, Sara; McLennan, Conor T.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>In a reverse Stroop <span class="hlt">task</span>, observers respond to the meaning of a color word irrespective of the color in which the word is printed—for example, the word red may be printed in the congruent color (red), an incongruent color (e.g., blue), or a neutral color (e.g., white). Although reading of color words in this <span class="hlt">task</span> is often thought to be neither facilitated by congruent print colors nor interfered with incongruent print colors, this interference has been detected by using a response method that does not give any bias in favor of processing of word meanings or processing of print colors. On the other hand, evidence for the presence of facilitation in this <span class="hlt">task</span> has been scarce, even though this facilitation is theoretically possible. By modifying the <span class="hlt">task</span> such that participants respond to a stimulus color word by pointing to a corresponding response word on a computer screen with a mouse, the present study investigated the possibility that not only interference but also facilitation would take place in a reverse Stroop <span class="hlt">task</span>. Importantly, in this study, participants’ responses were dynamically tracked by recording the entire trajectories of the mouse. Arguably, this method provided richer information about participants’ performance than traditional measures such as reaction time and accuracy, allowing for more detailed (and thus potentially more sensitive) investigation of facilitation and interference in the reverse Stroop <span class="hlt">task</span>. These trajectories showed that the mouse’s approach toward correct response words was significantly delayed by incongruent print colors but not <span class="hlt">affected</span> by congruent print colors, demonstrating that only interference, not facilitation, was present in the current <span class="hlt">task</span>. Implications of these findings are discussed within a theoretical framework in which the strength of association between a <span class="hlt">task</span> and its response method plays a critical role in determining how word meanings and print colors interact in reverse Stroop <span class="hlt">tasks</span>. PMID:27199881</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27199881','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27199881"><span id="translatedtitle">A Reverse Stroop <span class="hlt">Task</span> with Mouse Tracking.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Yamamoto, Naohide; Incera, Sara; McLennan, Conor T</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>In a reverse Stroop <span class="hlt">task</span>, observers respond to the meaning of a color word irrespective of the color in which the word is printed-for example, the word red may be printed in the congruent color (red), an incongruent color (e.g., blue), or a neutral color (e.g., white). Although reading of color words in this <span class="hlt">task</span> is often thought to be neither facilitated by congruent print colors nor interfered with incongruent print colors, this interference has been detected by using a response method that does not give any bias in favor of processing of word meanings or processing of print colors. On the other hand, evidence for the presence of facilitation in this <span class="hlt">task</span> has been scarce, even though this facilitation is theoretically possible. By modifying the <span class="hlt">task</span> such that participants respond to a stimulus color word by pointing to a corresponding response word on a computer screen with a mouse, the present study investigated the possibility that not only interference but also facilitation would take place in a reverse Stroop <span class="hlt">task</span>. Importantly, in this study, participants' responses were dynamically tracked by recording the entire trajectories of the mouse. Arguably, this method provided richer information about participants' performance than traditional measures such as reaction time and accuracy, allowing for more detailed (and thus potentially more sensitive) investigation of facilitation and interference in the reverse Stroop <span class="hlt">task</span>. These trajectories showed that the mouse's approach toward correct response words was significantly delayed by incongruent print colors but not <span class="hlt">affected</span> by congruent print colors, demonstrating that only interference, not facilitation, was present in the current <span class="hlt">task</span>. Implications of these findings are discussed within a theoretical framework in which the strength of association between a <span class="hlt">task</span> and its response method plays a critical role in determining how word meanings and print colors interact in reverse Stroop <span class="hlt">tasks</span>. PMID:27199881</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMSM22D..08S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMSM22D..08S"><span id="translatedtitle">Space Weather <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span>: An Enigma</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sojka, J. J.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>-pipe" disciplines. The perceived progress in space weather understanding differs significantly depending upon which community (scientific, technology, <span class="hlt">forecaster</span>, society) is addressing the question. Even more divergent are these thoughts when the question is how valuable is the scientific capability of <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> space weather. This talk will discuss present day as well as future potential for <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> space weather for a few selected examples. The author will attempt to straddle the divergent community opinions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=task+AND+performance&pg=4&id=EJ988230','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=task+AND+performance&pg=4&id=EJ988230"><span id="translatedtitle">Learners Performing <span class="hlt">Tasks</span> in a Japanese EFL Classroom: A Multimodal and Interpersonal Approach to Analysis</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Stone, Paul</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>In this paper I describe and analyse learner <span class="hlt">task</span>-based interactions from a multimodal perspective with the aim of better understanding how learners' interpersonal relationships might <span class="hlt">affect</span> <span class="hlt">task</span> performance. <span class="hlt">Task</span>-based pedagogy is focused on classroom interaction between learners, yet analysis of <span class="hlt">tasks</span> has often neglected the analysis of this…</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active"><span>25</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_25 --> <center> <div class="footer-extlink text-muted"><small>Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.</small> </div> </center> <div id="footer-wrapper"> <div class="footer-content"> <div id="footerOSTI" class=""> <div class="row"> <div class="col-md-4 text-center col-md-push-4 footer-content-center"><small><a href="http://www.science.gov/disclaimer.html">Privacy and Security</a></small> <div class="visible-sm visible-xs push_footer"></div> </div> <div class="col-md-4 text-center col-md-pull-4 footer-content-left"> <img src="https://www.osti.gov/images/DOE_SC31.png" alt="U.S. Department of Energy" usemap="#doe" height="31" width="177"><map style="display:none;" name="doe" id="doe"><area shape="rect" coords="1,3,107,30" href="http://www.energy.gov" alt="U.S. Deparment of Energy"><area shape="rect" coords="114,3,165,30" href="http://www.science.energy.gov" alt="Office of Science"></map> <a ref="http://www.osti.gov" style="margin-left: 15px;"><img src="https://www.osti.gov/images/footerimages/ostigov53.png" alt="Office of Scientific and Technical Information" height="31" width="53"></a> <div class="visible-sm visible-xs push_footer"></div> </div> <div class="col-md-4 text-center footer-content-right"> <a href="http://www.osti.gov/nle"><img src="https://www.osti.gov/images/footerimages/NLElogo31.png" alt="National Library of Energy" height="31" width="79"></a> <a href="http://www.science.gov"><img src="https://www.osti.gov/images/footerimages/scigov77.png" alt="science.gov" height="31" width="98"></a> <a href="http://worldwidescience.org"><img src="https://www.osti.gov/images/footerimages/wws82.png" alt="WorldWideScience.org" height="31" width="90"></a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <p><br></p> </div><!-- container --> </body> </html>