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Sample records for african monsoon system

  1. Regional analysis of convective systems during the West African monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guy, Bradley Nicholas

    The West African monsoon (WAM) occurs during the boreal summer and is responsible for a majority of precipitation in the northern portion of West Africa. A distinct shift of precipitation, often driven by large propagating mesoscale convective systems, is indicated from satellite observations. Excepting the coarser satellite observations, sparse data across the continent has prevented understanding of mesoscale variability of these important systems. The interaction between synoptic and mesoscale features appears to be an important part of the WAM system. Without an understanding of the mesoscale properties of precipitating systems, improved understanding of the feedback mechanism between spatial scales cannot be attained. Convective and microphysical characteristics of West African convective systems are explored using various observational data sets. Focus is directed toward meso -alpha and -beta scale convective systems to improve our understanding of characteristics at this spatial scale and contextualize their interaction with the larger-scale. Ground-based radar observations at three distinct geographical locations in West Africa along a common latitudinal band (Niamey, Niger [continental], Kawsara, Senegal [coastal], and Praia, Republic of Cape Verde [maritime]) are analyzed to determine convective system characteristics in each domain during a 29 day period in 2006. Ancillary datasets provided by the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) and NASA-AMMA (NAMMA) field campaigns are also used to place the radar observations in context. Results show that the total precipitation is dominated by propagating mesoscale convective systems. Convective characteristics vary according to environmental properties, such as vertical shear, CAPE, and the degree of synoptic forcing. Data are bifurcated based on the presence or absence of African easterly waves. In general, African easterly waves appear to enhance mesoscale convective system strength

  2. Interactive Aspects of the Indian and the African Summer Monsoon Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanjeeva Rao, P.; Sikka, D. R.

    2007-09-01

    This study addresses an understanding of the possible mutual interactions of sub-seasonal variability of the two neighboring regional monsoon systems through data analysis. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis and OLR data for three years was used to reveal the large-scale organization of convective episodes on synoptic (~5 days) and low frequency (15 50 day) scales. It is found that synoptic scale organization over both the sectors is influenced by the eastward migration of large-scale convective episodes associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the low frequency scale. The organization of convection associated with the African monsoon on the synoptic scale is influenced by the pulsatory character of lower mid-troposphere and upper troposphere wind regimes moving westward over the African sector. Over the Indian region formation of low pressure areas and depressions in the monsoon trough occur in an overlapping manner under an envelope of low frequency seasonal oscillation. We have also found some correspondence between the summer monsoon rainfall over tropical North Africa and India on a decadal basis, which would suggest a common mode of multi-decadal variability in the two monsoon systems. The study points out the need to organize simultaneous field campaigns over the Indian and the African monsoon regions so as to bring out observational features of possible interactions between the two neighboring systems, which could then be validated through modeling studies.

  3. The West African monsoon: Contribution of the AMMA multidisciplinary programme to the study of a regional climate system.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lebel, T.; Janicot, S.; Redelsperger, J. L.; Parker, D. J.; Thorncroft, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    The AMMA international project aims at improving our knowledge and understanding of the West African monsoon and its variability with an emphasis on daily-to-interannual timescales. AMMA is motivated by an interest in fundamental scientific issues and by the societal need for improved prediction of the WAM and its impacts on water resources, health and food security for West African nations. The West African monsoon (WAM) has a distinctive annual cycle in rainfall that remains a challenge to understand and predict. The location of peak rainfall, which resides in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the year, moves from the ocean to the land in boreal spring. Around the end of June there is a rapid shift in the location of peak rainfall between the coast and around 10°N where it remains until about the end of August. In September the peak rainfall returns equatorward at a relatively steady pace and is located over the ocean again by November. The fact that the peak rainfall migrates irregularly compared to the peak solar heating is due to the interactions that occur between the land, the atmosphere and the ocean. To gain a better understanding of this complex climate system, a large international research programme was launched in 2002, the biggest of its kind into environment and climate ever attempted in Africa. AMMA has involved a comprehensive field experiment bringing together ocean, land and atmospheric measurements, on timescales ranging from hourly and daily variability up to the changes in seasonal activity over a number of years. This presentation will focus on the description of the field programme and its accomplishments, and address some key questions that have been recently identified to form the core of AMMA-Phase 2.

  4. The West African monsoon: Contribution of the AMMA multidisciplinary programme to the study of a regional climate system.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lebel, T.; Janicot, S.; Redelsperger, J. L.; Parker, D. J.; Thorncroft, C. D.

    2014-12-01

    The AMMA international project aims at improving our knowledge and understanding of the West African monsoon and its variability with an emphasis on daily-to-interannual timescales. AMMA is motivated by an interest in fundamental scientific issues and by the societal need for improved prediction of the WAM and its impacts on water resources, health and food security for West African nations. The West African monsoon (WAM) has a distinctive annual cycle in rainfall that remains a challenge to understand and predict. The location of peak rainfall, which resides in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the year, moves from the ocean to the land in boreal spring. Around the end of June there is a rapid shift in the location of peak rainfall between the coast and around 10°N where it remains until about the end of August. In September the peak rainfall returns equatorward at a relatively steady pace and is located over the ocean again by November. The fact that the peak rainfall migrates irregularly compared to the peak solar heating is due to the interactions that occur between the land, the atmosphere and the ocean. To gain a better understanding of this complex climate system, a large international research programme was launched in 2002, the biggest of its kind into environment and climate ever attempted in Africa. AMMA has involved a comprehensive field experiment bringing together ocean, land and atmospheric measurements, on timescales ranging from hourly and daily variability up to the changes in seasonal activity over a number of years. This presentation will focus on the description of the field programme and its accomplishments, and address some key questions that have been recently identified to form the core of AMMA-Phase 2.

  5. Seasonal Evolution and Variability Associated with the West African Monsoon System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.

    2003-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the seasonal variations in surface rainfall and associated large-scale processes in the tropical eastern Atlantic and West African region. The 5-yr (1998-2002) high-quality TRMM rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), water vapor and cloud liquid water observations are applied along with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind components and a 3-yr (2000-2002) Quickscat satellite-observed surface wind product. Major mean rainfall over West Africa tends to be concentrated in two regions and is observed in two different seasons, manifesting an abrupt shift of the mean rainfall zone during June-July. (i) Near the Gulf of Guinea (about 5 degN), intense convection and rainfall are seen during April-June and roughly follow the seasonality of SST in the tropical eastern Atlantic. (ii) Along the latitudes of about 10 deg. N over the interior West African continent, a second intense rain belt begins to develop from July and remains there during the later summer season. This belt co-exists with a northwardmoved African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and its accompanying horizonal and vertical shear zones, the appearance and intensification of an upper tropospheric Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), and a strong low-level westerly flow. Westward-propagating wave signals [ i e . , African easterly waves (AEWs)] dominate the synoptic-scale variability during July-September, in contrast to the evident eastward-propagating wave signals during May- June. The abrupt shift of mean rainfall zone thus turns out to be a combination of two different physical processes: (i) Evident seasonal cycles in the tropical eastern Atlantic ocean which modulate convection and rainfall in the Gulf of Guinea by means of SST thermal forcing and SST-related meridional gradient; (ii) The interaction among the AEJ, TEJ, low-level westerly flow, moist convection and AEWs during July-September which modulates rainfall variability in the interior West Africa, primarily within the ITCZ rain band. Evident

  6. Radiative forcing of Sahara dust and its impacts on the hydrological cycle in the West African monsoon system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, C.; Liu, X.; Leung, L.; Hagos, S. M.

    2010-12-01

    The WRF-Chem model is applied to simulate the radiative forcing of dust and its impacts on the hydrological cycle during the monsoon season over West Africa (WA). The GOCART dust emission scheme is coupled into two aerosol models (MADE/SORGAM and MOSAIC) in WRF-Chem. During the monsoon season, dust is a dominant contributor to AOD near the dust source regions. Dust heats the atmosphere, and warms the surface in the nighttime through trapping the longwave radiation but cools the surface in the daytime through reducing the shortwave radiation. Dust modifies the surface energy budget through changing radiation, latent heat, and sensible heat fluxes, and results in large surface cooling effect in the afternoon but warming effect in the early morning during the monsoon season over WA. In the standard model configuration, the dust effect on total daily precipitation is small in both strong and weak monsoon years, but is sensitive to the dust absorbing properties. On the other hand, the dust-driven change of the stability of atmosphere significantly reduces the diurnal variation of precipitation during the monsoon season over WA, and improves the model simulation when compared to available observations.

  7. The pace of East African monsoon evolution during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weldeab, Syee; Menke, Valerie; Schmiedl, Gerhard

    2014-03-01

    African monsoon precipitation experienced a dramatic change in the course of the Holocene. The pace with which the African monsoon shifted from a strong early to middle to a weak late Holocene is critical for our understanding of climate dynamics, hydroclimate-vegetation interaction, and shifts of prehistoric human settlements, yet it is controversially debated. On the basis of planktonic foraminiferal Ba/Ca time series from the eastern Mediterranean Sea, here we present a proxy record of Nile River runoff that provides a spatially integrated measure of changes in East African monsoon (EAM) precipitation. The runoff record indicates a markedly gradual middle to late Holocene EAM transition that lasted over 3500 years. The timing and pace of runoff change parallels those of insolation and vegetation changes over the Nile basin, indicating orbitally forced variation of insolation as the main EAM forcing and the absence of a nonlinear precipitation-vegetation feedback. A tight correspondence between a threshold level of Nile River runoff and the timing of occupation/abandonment of settlements suggests that along with climate changes in the eastern Sahara, the level of Nile River and intensity of summer floods were likely critical for the habitability of the Nile Valley (Egypt).

  8. Strengthened African summer monsoon in the mid-Piacenzian

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ran; Zhang, Zhongshi; Jiang, Dabang; Yan, Qing; Zhou, Xin; Cheng, Zhigang

    2016-09-01

    Using model results from the first phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) and four experiments with CAM4, the intensified African summer monsoon (ASM) in the mid-Piacenzian and corresponding mechanisms are analyzed. The results from PlioMIP show that the ASM intensified and summer precipitation increased in North Africa during the mid-Piacenzian, which can be explained by the increased net energy in the atmospheric column above North Africa. Further experiments with CAM4 indicated that the combined changes in the mid-Piacenzian of atmospheric CO2 concentration and SST, as well as the vegetation change, could have substantially increased the net energy in the atmospheric column over North Africa and further intensified the ASM. The experiments also demonstrated that topography change had a weak effect. Overall, the combined changes of atmospheric CO2 concentration and SST were the most important factor that brought about the intensified ASM in the mid-Piacenzian.

  9. Understanding the mechanisms behind the West African Monsoon northward extension during Mid-Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaetani, Marco; Messori, Gabriele; Zhang, Qiong; Flamant, Cyrille; Evan, Amato T.; Pausata, Francesco S. R.

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the West African monsoon (WAM) dynamics in the mid-Holocene (MH) is a crucial issue in climate modelling, because numerical models typically fail to reproduce the extensive precipitation suggested by proxy evidence. This discrepancy is largely due to unrealistic imposed land surface cover and aerosols. Numerical experiments are conducted by imposing a "green Sahara", along with a reduced dust concentration in the atmosphere, coherently with the MH environment in the region, and the atmospheric dynamics response and impact on precipitation are investigated. The response of the WAM system to the imposed conditions shows a dramatic augmentation of the precipitation across West Africa up to the Mediterranean coast. This follows a substantial reorganization of the regional circulation, with some monsoonal circulation features (Saharan heat low, African easterly jet, African easterly waves) weakened in favour of deep convection development over land. The simulated response is dominated by land cover changes, and the reduction in dust concentration further enhances the changes induced by the "green Sahara". The intensity and meridional extent of the WAM is fully consistent with proxy evidence. The results for the MH WAM present important implications for understanding future climate scenarios in the region, in the perspective of projected wetter conditions in West Africa.

  10. Future of West African Monsoon in A Warming Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raj, Jerry; Kunhu Bangalath, Hamza; Stenchikov, Georgiy

    2016-04-01

    West Africa is the home of more than 300 million people whose agriculture based economy highly relies on West African Monsoon (WAM), which produces a mean annual rainfall of 150 - 2,500 mm and variability and change of which have devastating impact on the local population. The observed widespread drought in West Africa during the 1970s and 1980s was the most significant drought at regional scale during the twentieth century. In this study, a high resolution AGCM, High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), is used to study the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on WAM. HiRAM is developed at GFDL based on AM2 and employs a cubed-sphere finite volume dynamical core and uses shallow convective scheme (for moist convection and stratiform cloudiness) instead of deep convective parameterization. Future projections are done using two representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 2007 to 2050 at C360 (~25 km) resolution. Both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios predict warming over West Africa during boreal summer, especially over Western Sahara. Also, both scenarios predict southward shift in WAM rainfall pattern and drying over Southern Sahara, while RCP 8.5 predicts enhanced rainfall over Gulf of Guinea. The intensification of rainfall over tropical latitudes is caused by increased low level winds due to warm SST over Gulf of Guinea.

  11. Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model

    SciTech Connect

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin -Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature.

  12. Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoon

    SciTech Connect

    Sperber, K R; Yasunari, T

    2005-12-20

    The Earth's monsoon systems are the life-blood of more than two-thirds of the world's population through the rainfall they provide to the mainly agrarian societies they influence. More than 60 experts gathered to assess the current understanding of monsoon variability and to highlight outstanding problems simulating the monsoon.

  13. Evaluation of West African Monsoon Processes and Feedbacks: Second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Y.; Lau, W. K.; Boone, A. A.; Seidou Sanda, I.; Thiaw, W. M.; Druyan, L.; Team, W.

    2013-12-01

    Despite recent progress in understanding of the West African monsoon (WAM), there are still many unanswered questions regarding to the impact of external forcings: oceans, land, and aerosols, on WAM variability, especially their roles in the Sahel drought. The West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME) is a project comprised of both general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) with the objective to collectively provide best estimation of the relative importance of all those external forcing on WAM on seasonal to multi-decadal time scales. WAMME research activities are closely coordinated with those of AMMA, involving many African institutions. Observational evidence has shown strong decadal climate variabilities in the Sahel from the 1950s to the 2000s, not only in precipitation, but also in SST, vegetation cover, land use and land cover changes (LULCC), and aerosols. In WAMME-2, multi-model intercomparison experiments are designed to test how seasonal and decadal variabilities of WAM precipitation are associated with these forcings, and assess their relative contributions in producing/amplifying the WAM seasonal and decadal climate variability. The sensitivity of the WAM variability to those external forcings is also examined. The WAMME-2 strategy is to apply observational data-based anomaly forcing of SST, land surface and aerosols, i.e., "idealized but realistic" forcing, in GCM and RCM simulations with the specific purpose of estimating the relative impacts of each forcing and feedback mechanisms. In the SST experiment, in addition to the global SST effect, each ocean's role is also evaluated. The preliminary results from most GCMs consistently indicate that SST has a maximum impact on the WAM decadal variability compared with other forcings, and that the effect of the Pacific Ocean is most dominant. The models, however, differ in producing other oceans' contribution. Moreover, the models with specified maximum SST forcing are

  14. The West African Monsoon: variability and teleconnection with ENSO during the years 1948-57

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stickler, Alexander; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2010-05-01

    The intensity of the West African Monsoon (WAM) has been shown to be influenced by different factors. Most important for the existence of the monsoon system is the land-sea thermal contrast between the North African landmass and the Gulf of Guinea. ENSO plays an important role for its interannual variability via an atmospheric teleconnection bridging the Pacific and Atlantic oceanic basins and favouring either descent/weak low-level monsoon flow or ascent/strong low-level monsoon flow over tropical West Africa. Most published studies on the WAM variability are based on reanalysis datasets. However, while reproducing quite well the interannual variability, reanalysis products have been found to contain major biases in certain tropical regions before 1968. These lead to an unrealistic low frequency behaviour and might be explained by the lack of observations assimilated into the reanalyses, as is the case e.g. for tropical Africa where only the much sparser radiosonde data have been assimilated into the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNR). Here we present an analysis of the interannual WAM variability and its teleconnection with ENSO for the years 1948-57 which is not based on a reanalysis, but on early pilot balloon observational wind data from the Comprehensive Historical Upper Air Network (CHUAN). We have examined wind data from all 36 stations located in the domain (10°S-30°N, 20°W-20°E) on 5 levels up to the mid troposphere (corresponding roughly to the 925, 850, 700, 600 and 500 hPa pressure levels). This analysis shows that 7 subregions can be defined which are characterised by similar vertical wind profiles as well as seasonality: the NW (Mauritania, northern Senegal), the SW (southern Senegal to coastal Guinea), central sub-Saharan West Africa (SSWA, from interior Guinea in the W to coastal Cameroon and southern Niger in the E), central and eastern Niger, western Chad, the western Central African Republic, and the southern coastal regions east of the Gulf of

  15. A distal 140 kyr sediment record of Nile discharge and East African monsoon variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehrmann, Werner; Schmiedl, Gerhard; Seidel, Martin; Krüger, Stefan; Schulz, Hartmut

    2016-03-01

    Clay mineral assemblages in a sediment core from the distal Nile discharge plume off Israel have been used to reconstruct the late Quaternary Nile sediment discharge into the eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS). The record spans the last ca. 140 kyr. Smectite abundances indicate the influence of the Blue Nile and the Atbara River that have their headwaters in the volcanic rocks of the Ethiopian Highlands. Kaolinite abundances indicate the influence of wadis, which contribute periodically to the suspension load of the Nile. Due to the geographical position, the climate and the sedimentary framework of the EMS is controlled by two climate systems. The long-term climate regime was governed by the African monsoon that caused major African humid periods (AHPs) with enhanced sediment discharge at 132 to < 126 (AHP 5), 116 to 99 (AHP4), and 89 to 77 ka (AHP3). They lasted much longer than the formation of the related sapropel layers S5 (> 2 kyr), S4 (3.5 kyr), and S3 (5 kyr). During the last glacial period (Marine Isotope Stages (MISs) 4-2), the long-term changes in the monsoonal system were superimposed by millennial-scale changes in an intensified midlatitude glacial system. This climate regime caused short but pronounced drought periods in the Nile catchment, which are linked to Heinrich events and alternate with more humid interstadials. The clay mineral record further implies that feedback mechanisms between vegetation cover and sediment discharge of the Nile are detectable but of minor importance for the sedimentary record in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea during the investigated African humid periods.

  16. The timing of Mediterranean sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level and African monsoon changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, Katharine; Grimm, Rosina; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Marino, Gianluca; Rohling, Eelco

    2016-04-01

    The periodic deposition of organic rich layers or 'sapropels' in eastern Mediterranean sediments can be linked to orbital-driven changes in the strength and location of (east) African monsoon precipitation. Sapropels are therefore an extremely useful tool for establishing orbital chronologies, and for providing insights about African monsoon variability on long timescales. However, the link between sapropel formation, insolation variations, and African monsoon 'maxima' is not straightforward because other processes (notably, sea-level rise) may have contributed to their deposition, and because there are uncertainties about monsoon-sapropel phase relationships. For example, different phasings are observed between Holocene and early Pleistocene sapropels, and between proxy records and model simulations. To address these issues, we have established geochemical and ice-volume-corrected planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope records for sapropels S1, S3, S4, and S5 in core LC21 from the southern Aegean Sea. The records have a radiometrically constrained chronology that has already been synchronised with the Red Sea relative sea-level record, and this allows us to examine in detail the timing of sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level, and African monsoon changes. Our records suggest that the onset of sapropel deposition and monsoon run-off was near synchronous, yet insolation-sapropel/monsoon phasings varied, whereby monsoon/sapropel onset was relatively delayed (with respect to insolation maxima) after glacial terminations. We suggest that large meltwater discharges into the North Atlantic modified the timing of sapropel deposition by delaying the timing of peak African monsoon run-off. Hence, the previous assumption of a systematic 3-kyr lag between insolation maxima and sapropel midpoints may lead to overestimated insolation-sapropel phasings. We also surmise that both monsoon run-off and sea-level rise were important buoyancy-forcing mechanisms for

  17. KZai 02 pollen record, an insight into West African monsoon fluctuations during the Last Climatic Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalibard, M.; Popescu, S.; Maley, J.; Suc, J.

    2012-12-01

    Climate of the circum-Atlantic intertropical zone is driven by the ocean/atmosphere dynamics in response to variations of yearly insolation. These latitudes correspond to the convergence of the Hadley cells expressed on earth surface by intense trade winds and in lower troposphere by the African easterly jet making the edges of the intertropical zone relatively dry, while humidity is concentrated near the Equator. This phenomenon generates a precipitation front, known as the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the oscillations of which regulate the latitudinal vegetation distribution. Pollen record of core KZai 02 (Guinea Gulf) allows high resolution reconstruction of variations of past ecosystems over Central Africa during the Last Climatic Cycle. Plant taxa recorded in pollen analyses have been clustered according to their ecological requirements and African phytogeography. Fluctuations of these groups inform on precipitation intensity and their distribution during the last 130 ka. During Glacials, an open vegetation made of Cyperaceae marshes developed in the central Zaire/Congo Basin, surrounded by savannah on borders and afromontane forests on reliefs. Composition and distribution of vegetation indicate a decrease in monsoon activity and the strengthening of the precipitation front in the center of the basin. Interglacial phases are characterized by rain forest expansion over Central Africa in response to a precipitation enhancement associated with a northward shift of the rainfall front. Replacement of afromontane forest and marsh ecosystems by savannah then lowland pioneering, warm-temperate and rain forests characterized glacial/interglacial transitions. This succession suggests the increasing influence of at least two climatic parameters: the water availability and temperature and/or CO2 fluctuation. Spectral analysis applied to vegetation groups evidences the forcing of insolation, mainly driven by precession, on the West African monsoon system. Sub

  18. A distal 145 ka sediment record of Nile discharge and East African monsoon variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehrmann, W.; Schmiedl, G.; Seidel, M.; Krüger, S.; Schulz, H.

    2015-09-01

    Clay mineral assemblages in a sediment core from the distal Nile discharge plume off Israel have been used to reconstruct the late Quaternary Nile sediment discharge into the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS). The record spans the last ca. 145 ka. Smectite abundances indicate the influence of the Blue Nile and Atbara that have their headwaters in the volcanic rocks of the Ethiopian highlands. Kaolinite abundances indicate the influence of wadis, which contribute periodically to the suspension load of the Nile. Due to the geographical position, the climate and the sedimentary framework of the EMS is controlled by two climate systems. The long-term climate regime was governed by the African monsoon that caused major humid periods with enhanced sediment discharge at 132 to < 122 ka (AHP 5), 113 to 104 ka (AHP 4), and 86 to 74 ka (AHP 3). They lasted much longer than the formation of the related sapropel layers S5, S4 and S3. During the last glacial period (MIS 4-2) the long-term changes of the monsoonal system were superimposed by millennial-scale changes of an intensified mid-latitude glacial system. This climate regime caused short but pronounced drought periods in the Nile catchment, which are linked to Heinrich Events and alternate with more humid interstadials. The clay mineral record further implies that feedback mechanisms between vegetation cover and sediment discharge of the Nile are detectable but of minor importance for the sedimentary record in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea during the investigated African Humid Periods.

  19. RAMA: Research Moored Array for African - Asian - Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McPhaden, M. J.

    2008-12-01

    The Indian Ocean is unique among the three tropical oceans in that it is blocked at 25N by the Asian land mass. Seasonal heating and cooling over this land mass sets the stage for dramatic monsoon wind reversals and intense summer rains over areas surrounding the basin. These climate variations have significant societal and economic impacts that affect half the world's population. Despite the importance of the Indian Ocean for both the regional and global climate though, it is the most poorly observed and least well understood of the three tropical oceans. This presentation describes the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA), which has been designed to provide sustained, basin scale time series data in the Indian Ocean for climate research and forecasting. RAMA is intended to complement other satellite and in situ components of the Indian Ocean Observing System and it is being implemented through a coordinated multi- national effort involving institutions in several countries. We will review the scientific rationale, design criteria, and implementation status of RAMA. We will also illustrate some of the important intraseasonal to interannual time scale phenomena in the region observed with new RAMA time series data. Potential applications of the data for forecasting purposes will also be discussed.

  20. RAMA: Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McPhaden, M. J.

    2009-05-01

    The Indian Ocean is unique among the three tropical ocean basins in that it is blocked at 25°N by the Asian land mass. Seasonal heating and cooling over this land mass sets the stage for dramatic monsoon wind reversals and intense rains over areas surrounding the basin. These climate variations have significant societal and economic impacts that affect half the world's population. Despite the importance of the Indian Ocean for both the regional and global climate though, it is the most poorly observed and least well understood of the three tropical oceans. This presentation describes the Research Moored Array for African-Asian- Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA), which has been designed to provide sustained, basin scale time series data in the Indian Ocean for climate research and forecasting. RAMA is intended to complement other satellite and in situ components of the Indian Ocean Observing System and it is being implemented through a coordinated multi-national effort involving institutions in several countries. We will review the scientific rationale, design criteria, and implementation status of RAMA. We will also illustrate some of the important intraseasonal to interannual time scale phenomena in the region observed with new RAMA time series data. Potential applications of the data for forecasting purposes will also be discussed.

  1. Revisiting the role of global SST anomalies and their effects on West African monsoon variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pomposi, Catherine; Kushnir, Yochanan; Giannini, Alessandra

    2016-04-01

    The West African Monsoon is a significant component of the global monsoon system, delivering the majority of annual precipitation for the Sahel and varying on timescales from seasons to decades and beyond. Much of the internal variability of this system is driven by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and their resulting atmospheric teleconnections linking oceanic changes to land-based precipitation. Previous idealized studies have identified the role of particular ocean basins in driving monsoon variations on a number of key timescales, including the Atlantic basin as the main driver behind decadal-scale changes and the Pacific basin for interannual variability. However, understanding of how the monsoon responds to global SSTs remains incomplete because the system can be affected by moisture availability locally as well as tropical atmospheric stability, both of which are influenced by ocean temperatures. Furthermore, the complexity of how the global ocean basins change in relation to one another (what we refer to as superposition of anomalies) can result in Sahel precipitation anomalies that are contrary to what one might posit when considering the state of a single basin alone (e.g. the 2015 El Niño event and a relatively wet Sahel). The aim of this work is to revisit the role of global SSTs in driving Sahel rainfall variability over the recent past using a blending of observations and new model output. We seek to disentangle the state of various basins in combination with each other in driving normal or anomalously dry or wet years, resolving the ways that remote and local ocean forcings affect the movement of convection from the Guinea coast inland and northward into the Sahel, and include the study of circulation and stability components of the atmosphere. Preliminary diagnostic work suggests that varying SST conditions across ocean basins could imprint distinctly different precipitation responses in the Sahel. For example, precipitation anomalies are

  2. The timing of Mediterranean sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level and African monsoon changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, K. M.; Grimm, R.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Marino, G.; Ziegler, M.; Rohling, E. J.

    2016-05-01

    The Mediterranean basin is sensitive to global sea-level changes and African monsoon variability on orbital timescales. Both of these processes are thought to be important to the deposition of organic-rich sediment layers or 'sapropels' throughout the eastern Mediterranean, yet their relative influences remain ambiguous. A related issue is that an assumed 3-kyr lag between boreal insolation maxima and sapropel mid-points remains to be tested. Here we present new geochemical and ice-volume-corrected planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope records for sapropels S1 (Holocene), S3, S4, and S5 (Marine Isotope Stage 5) in core LC21 from the southern Aegean Sea. The records have a radiometrically constrained chronology that has already been synchronised with the Red Sea relative sea-level record, and this allows detailed examination of the timing of sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level, and African monsoon changes. We find that sapropel onset was near-synchronous with monsoon run-off into the eastern Mediterranean, but that insolation-sapropel/monsoon phasings were not systematic through the last glacial cycle. These latter phasings instead appear to relate to sea-level changes. We propose that persistent meltwater discharges into the North Atlantic (e.g., at glacial terminations) modified the timing of sapropel deposition by delaying the timing of peak African monsoon run-off. These observations may reconcile apparent model-data offsets with respect to the orbital pacing of the African monsoon. Our observations also imply that the previous assumption of a systematic 3-kyr lag between insolation maxima and sapropel midpoints may lead to overestimated insolation-sapropel phasings. Finally, we surmise that both sea-level rise and monsoon run-off contributed to surface-water buoyancy changes at times of sapropel deposition, and their relative influences differed per sapropel case, depending on their magnitudes. Sea-level rise was clearly important for

  3. Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model

    DOE PAGES

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin -Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubsmore » and an increase in surface air temperature.« less

  4. The First Pan-WCRP Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoons

    SciTech Connect

    Sperber, K R; Yasunari, T

    2005-07-27

    In 2004 the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) that provides scientific guidance to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) requested an assessment of (1) WCRP monsoon related activities and (2) the range of available observations and analyses in monsoon regions. The purpose of the assessment was to (a) define the essential elements of a pan-WCRP monsoon modeling strategy, (b) identify the procedures for producing this strategy, and (c) promote improvements in monsoon observations and analyses with a view toward their adequacy, and addressing any undue redundancy or duplication. As such, the WCRP sponsored the ''1st Pan-WCRP Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoons'' at the University of California, Irvine, CA, USA from 15-17 June 2005. Experts from the two WCRP programs directly relevant to monsoon studies, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR) and the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), gathered to assess the current understanding of the fundamental physical processes governing monsoon variability and to highlight outstanding problems in simulating the monsoon that can be tackled through enhanced cooperation between CLIVAR and GEWEX. The agenda with links to the presentations can be found at: http://www.clivar.org/organization/aamon/WCRPmonsoonWS/agenda.htm. Scientific motivation for a joint CLIVAR-GEWEX approach to investigating monsoons includes the potential for improved medium-range to seasonal prediction through better simulation of intraseasonal (30-60 day) oscillations (ISO's). ISO's are important for the onset of monsoons, as well as the development of active and break periods of rainfall during the monsoon season. Foreknowledge of the active and break phases of the monsoon is important for crop selection, the determination of planting times and mitigation of potential flooding and short-term drought. With a few exceptions simulations of ISO are typically poor in all classes of

  5. Evaluation of Dynamics of the West African Monsoon Jump Simulated by the MIT Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Im, Eun-Soon

    2015-04-01

    The seasonal advance and retreat of the West African monsoon behaves abrupt northward jump of maximum rainfall from the Guinean coast to the Sahel region. Both global and regional climate models have difficulties in accurately reproducing such a behavior due to its complexity combined the dynamical and physical processes. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) in simulating the West African monsoon. For this, 20-year long-term simulation (1989-2008) is performed using the ERAInterim reanalysis as the initial and boundary condition, and the analysis primarily focuses on the dynamics associated with abrupt phase transitions of the monsoon rainfall. We first examine detailed characteristics in terms of the onset, maximum, and retreat of the monsoon rainfall using daily precipitation. We then present the dynamical explanation behind rainfall variability from the analysis of the absolute vorticity near the tropopause and the meridional gradient of boundary-layer entropy within the dynamical theory proposed by Eltahir and Gong (1996). Acknowledgements : This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

  6. Spatio-temporal evolution of the West African monsoon during the last deglaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weldeab, Syee; Frank, Martin; Stichel, Torben; Haley, Brian; Sangen, Mark

    2011-07-01

    On the basis of a multi-proxy data set from the Gulf of Guinea (eastern equatorial Atlantic) we reconstruct the spatio-temporal evolution of the West African monsoon (WAM) and present evidence for a decoupling between latitudinal shifts of the rain belt and WAM intensification. The onset of deglacial monsoon invigoration at ˜16,600 years before present lagged northward migration of a weak rainfall zone by ˜2800 years. Conversely, during the Younger Dryas (YD) time interval, WAM precipitation was severely reduced but we find no evidence for a large-scale retreat of the rainfall front. This observation is not in agreement with the hypothesis of a large-scale shift of the intertropical convergence zone south of the tropical WAM region during the YD. Our results can be better reconciled with the newly emerging concept of a strong influence of Tropical Easterly and African Easterly Jets on modern WAM.

  7. Linkages of Remote Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Mediated by the African Monsoon

    SciTech Connect

    Taraphdar, Sourav; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hagos, Samson M.

    2015-01-28

    Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Atlantic and Mediterranean (NAMED) can influence tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the tropical East Atlantic by modulating summer convection over western Africa. Analysis of 30 years of observations show that the NAMED SST is linked to a strengthening of the Saharan heat low and enhancement of moisture and moist static energy in the lower atmosphere over West Africa, which favors a northward displacement of the monsoonal front. These processes also lead to a northward shift of the African easterly jet that introduces an anomalous positive vorticity from western Africa to the main development region (50W–20E; 10N–20N) of Atlantic TC. By modulating multiple processes associated with the African monsoon, this study demonstrates that warm NAMED SST explains 8% of interannual variability of Atlantic TC frequency. Thus NAME SST may provide useful predictability for Atlantic TC activity on seasonal-to-interannual time scale.

  8. Instrumental evidence of an unusually strong West African Monsoon in the 19th century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallego, David; Ordoñez, Paulina; Ribera, Pedro; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Vega, Inmaculada; Gomez, Francisco de Paula

    2016-04-01

    The precipitation in the Sahel -which is mainly controlled by the dynamics of the West African Monsoon-, has been in the spot of the climate community for the last three decades due to the persistence of the drought period that started in the 1970s. Unfortunately, reliable meteorological series in this area are only available since the beginning of the 20th Century, thus limiting our understanding of the significance of this period from a long term perspective. Currently, our knowledge of what happened in times previous to the 20th Century essentially relies in documentary or proxy sources. In this work, we present the first instrumental evidence of a 50 year-long period characterised by an unusually strong West African monsoon in the19th Century. Following the recent advances in the generation of climatic indices based on data from ship's logbooks, we used historical wind observations to compute a new index (the so-called ASWI) for characterising the strength of the West African Monsoon. The ASWI is based in the persistence of the southwesterly winds in the [29°W-17°W;7°N-13°N] area and it has been possible to compute it since 1790 for July and since 1839 for August and September. We show that the ASWI is a reliable measure of the monsoon's strength and the Sahelian rainfall. Our new series clearly shows the well-known drought period starting in the 1970s. During this dry period, the West African Monsoon was particularly weak and interestingly, we found that since then, the correlations with different climatic patterns such as the Pacific and Atlantic "El Niño" changed significantly in relation to those of the previous century. Remarkably, our results also show that the period 1839-1890 was characterised by an unusually strong and persistent monsoon. Notwithstanding, two of the few dry years within this period were concurrent with large volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere. This latter result supports the recently suggested relationship between major

  9. The Monsoon as a Self-regulating Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, P. J.; Clark, C.; Cherikova, G.; Fasullo, J.; Han, W.; Loschnigg, J.; Sahami, K.

    INTRODUCTION REGULATION OF THE MONSOON ANNUAL CYCLE The Climatological Annual Cycle Processes Determining the Annual Cycle of the Monsoon Role of Ocean Dynamics in the Annual Heat Balance of the Indian - Ocean Regulation of the Annual Cycle of the Monsoon: an Ocean-Atmosphere - Feedback System INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE MONSOON Modes of Interannual Variability in the Monsoon Interannual Modes in Ocean Heat Transport Interannual Regulation of the Monsoon GENERAL THEORY OF REGULATION OF THE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERIC MONSOON - SYSTEM CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES

  10. MONSOON: Image Acquisition System or "Pixel Server"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Starr, Barry M.; Buchholz, Nick C.; Rahmer, Gustavo; Penegor, Gerald; Schmidt, Ricardo E.; Warner, Michael; Merrill, Michael; Claver, Charles F.; Ho, Y.; Chopra, K. N.; Shroff, C.; Shroff, D.

    2003-03-01

    The MONSOON Image Acquisition System has been designed to meet the need for scalable, multichannel, high-speed image acquisition required for the next-generation optical and infared detectors and mosaic projects currently under development at NOAO as described in other papers at this proceeding such as ORION, NEWFIRM, QUOTA, ODI and LSST. These new systems with their large scale (64 to 2000 channels) and high performance (up to 1Gbyte/s) raise new challenges in terms of communication bandwidth, data storage and data processing requirements which are not adequately met by existing astronomical controllers. In order to meet this demand, new techniques for not only a new detector controller, but rather a new image acquisition architecture, have been defined. These extremely large scale imaging systems also raise less obvious concerns in previously neglected areas of controller design such as physical size and form factor issues, power dissipation and cooling near the telescope, system assembly/test/ integration time, reliability, and total cost of ownership. At NOAO we have taken efforts to look outside of the astronomical community for solutions found in other disciplines to similar classes of problems. A large number of the challenges raised by these system needs are already successfully being faced in other areas such as telecommunications, instrumentation and aerospace. Efforts have also been made to use true commercial off the shelf (COTS) system elements, and find truly technology independent solutions for a number of system design issues whenever possible. The Monsoon effort is a full-disclosure development effort by NOAO in collaboration with the CARA ASTEROID project for the benefit of the astronomical community.

  11. 155,000 years of West African monsoon and ocean thermal evolution.

    PubMed

    Weldeab, Syee; Lea, David W; Schneider, Ralph R; Andersen, Nils

    2007-06-01

    A detailed reconstruction of West African monsoon hydrology over the past 155,000 years suggests a close linkage to northern high-latitude climate oscillations. Ba/Ca ratio and oxygen isotope composition of planktonic foraminifera in a marine sediment core from the Gulf of Guinea, in the eastern equatorial Atlantic (EEA), reveal centennial-scale variations of riverine freshwater input that are synchronous with northern high-latitude stadials and interstadials of the penultimate interglacial and the last deglaciation. EEA Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were decoupled from northern high-latitude millennial-scale fluctuation and primarily responded to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and low-latitude solar insolation. The onset of enhanced monsoon precipitation lags behind the changes in EEA SSTs by up to 7000 years during glacial-interglacial transitions. This study demonstrates that the stadial-interstadial and deglacial climate instability of the northern high latitudes exerts dominant control on the West African monsoon dynamics through an atmospheric linkage. PMID:17540896

  12. Influence of Arctic sea-ice and greenhouse gas concentration change on the West African Monsoon.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    The Sahelian precipitation are projected to increase in the CNRM-CM5 coupled climate model due to a strengthening of the land-Sea temperature gradient, the increase in the North Atlantic temperature and the deepening of the Heat Low. Arctic Sea-Ice loss impacts the low-level atmospheric circulation through a decrease in the northward heat transport. Some authors have linked the sea-ice loss to a poleward shift of the InterTropical Convergence Zone. Within the CMIP5 models the effect of these mechanisms are not distinguishable and it is difficult to understand the effect of the Arctic sea-ice loss on the West African Monsoon so far. We performed several sensitivity experiments with the CNRM-CM5 coupled climate models by modifying the arctic sea-ice extent and/or the greenhouse gas concentration. We then investigated separately the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss and greenhouse gas concentration increases on the West African Monsoon. The increase in greenhouse gas explains the northward shift and the strengthening of the monsoon. Its effect is stronger with a sea-ice free Arctic that leads to an increase in North Atlantic temperature and in Sahelian precipitation at the end of the rainy season (September-October). We argue that the decrease in sea-ice extent, in the context of the global warming, may moistens the Sahel during the rainy season by changing the pressure, winds and moisture fluxes at low-level.

  13. Regional Climate Modeling of West African Summer Monsoon Climate: Impact of Historical Boundary Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kebe, I.

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we analyze and intercompare the performance of an ensemble of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) driven by three set of Global Climate Models (GCMs), in reproducing seasonal mean climatologies with their annual cycle and the key features of West African summer monsoon over 20 years period (1985-2004) during the present day. The results show that errors in lateral boundary conditions from the GCM members, have an unexpected way on the skill of the RCMs in reproducing regional climate features such as the West African Monsoon features and the annual cycle of precipitation and temperature in terms of outperforming the GCM simulation. It also shows the occurrence of the West African Monsoon jump, the intensification and northward shift of the Saharan Heat Low (SHL) as expressed in some RCMs than the GCMs. Most RCMs also capture the mean annual cycle of precipitation and temperature, including, single and double-peaked during the summer months, in terms of events and amplitude. In a series of RCMs and GCMs experiments between the Sahara region and equatorial Africa, the presence of strong positive meridional temperature gradients at the surface and a strong meridional gradients in the potential temperatures near the surface are obvious, indicating the region of strong vertical shear development enough to establish easterly flow such as the African easterly jet. In addition, the isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) gradient decreases northward in the lower troposphere across northern Africa, with the maximum reversal on the 315-K surface. The region with negative IPV gradient favors the potential instability which has been associated with the growth of easterly waves.

  14. West African monsoon decadal variability and surface-related forcings: second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Yongkang; De Sales, Fernando; Lau, William K.-M.; Boone, Aaron; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Wang, Guiling; Kucharski, Fred; Schiro, Kathleen; Hosaka, Masahiro; Li, Suosuo; Druyan, Leonard M.; Sanda, Ibrah Seidou; Thiaw, Wassila; Zeng, Ning; Comer, Ruth E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Mahanama, Sarith; Song, Guoqiong; Gu, Yu; Hagos, Samson M.; Chin, Mian; Schubert, Siegfried; Dirmeyer, Paul; Ruby Leung, L.; Kalnay, Eugenia; Kitoh, Akio; Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Zhang, Zhengqiu

    2016-06-01

    The second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II) is designed to improve understanding of the possible roles and feedbacks of sea surface temperature (SST), land use land cover change (LULCC), and aerosols forcings in the Sahel climate system at seasonal to decadal scales. The project's strategy is to apply prescribed observationally based anomaly forcing, i.e., "idealized but realistic" forcing, in simulations by climate models. The goal is to assess these forcings' effects in producing/amplifying seasonal and decadal climate variability in the Sahel between the 1950s and the 1980s, which is selected to characterize the great drought period of the last century. This is the first multi-model experiment specifically designed to simultaneously evaluate such relative contributions. The WAMME II models have consistently demonstrated that SST forcing is a major contributor to the twentieth century Sahel drought. Under the influence of the maximum possible SST forcing, the ensemble mean of WAMME II models can produce up to 60 % of the precipitation difference during the period. The present paper also addresses the role of SSTs in triggering and maintaining the Sahel drought. In this regard, the consensus of WAMME II models is that both Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs greatly contributed to the drought, with the former producing an anomalous displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone before the WAM onset, and the latter mainly contributes to the summer WAM drought. The WAMME II models also show that the impact of LULCC forcing on the Sahel climate system is weaker than that of SST forcing, but still of first order magnitude. According to the results, under LULCC forcing the ensemble mean of WAMME II models can produces about 40 % of the precipitation difference between the 1980s and the 1950s. The role of land surface processes in responding to and amplifying the drought is also identified. The results suggest that catastrophic

  15. Circulation Regimes of Rainfall Anomalies in the African-South Asian Monsoon Belt.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatt, Uma S.

    1989-10-01

    This study explores the spatial differentiation of climate anomalies and associated circulation mechanisms across the African-South Asian monsoon belt through empirical analyses mainly for the period 1948-83. Observations include surface ship observations in the tropical Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and Indian oceans, and various hydrometeorological and circulation index series, representing the water discharge of the Senegal River (SENEGAL), the rainfall in the West African Sahel (SAHEL), the discharge of rivers in the Nile basin (ROSEIRES, ATBARA), India monsoon rainfall (NIR), and the Southern Oscillation (SO). The field significance of correlation patterns is ascertained through Monte Carlo experiments.There is a strong correlation of hydrometeorological conditions from Senegal to the Sahel, a decrease from each of these domains eastward to the Nile catchment, and even more so to India. Conversely, correlations are remarkably high between the water discharge of the Nile basin (ROSEIRES, ATBARA) and Indian rainfall (NIR). An SO index is correlated positively with the hydrometeorological conditions throughout the monsoon belt, but most strongly in the East (NIR) and least in the West (SENEGAL).Correlation analyses for the July-August height of the boreal summer monsoon indicate that abundant rainfall in the western Sahel is, in the Atlantic sector, associated with weak northeast trades and in the western Indian Ocean with low pressure overlying cool surface waters. By comparison, copious river discharge in the eastern portion of the Subsaharan zone coincides with weakened northeast trades over the Atlantic but more pronounced circulation departures in the Indian Ocean sector, consisting of anomalously low pressure, cold surface waters, and abundant cloudiness in the northern Indian Ocean. This ensemble of atmosphere-ocean anomalies is also characteristic of abundant Indian monsoon rainfall. During the positive SO phase, rainfall tends to be relatively abundant

  16. Holocene Asian and African Monsoon Strength Recorded in O-18 of Atmospheric Oxygen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Severinghaus, J. P.; Beaudette, R.; Brook, E. J.

    2008-12-01

    Prior work using trapped gases in ice cores has shown that the oxygen-18/16 ratio of atmospheric molecular oxygen (δ18Oatm) is sensitive to orbital-scale monsoon and ice volume variations (Bender et al., 1994) and millennial-scale monsoon variations during Marine Isotope Stage 4 (Landais et al., 2007). Here we extend these findings with a high-resolution record from the Siple Dome ice core, West Antarctica, covering the last 60 kyr. The early Holocene sample resolution is ~30 yr and precision is ±0.009‰, revealing previously unrecognized centennial-scale variations in δ18Oatm. Removal of the seawater δ18O record (Waelbroeck et al., 2002) yields a record of past changes in the Dole Effect, the difference between the δ18O of air and seawater (+23.8‰ today). A further calculation using the derivative of the δ18Oatm data and an assumed 1000-yr O2 turnover time allows a deconvolution of the implied effective value of δ18O of O2 introduced to the atmosphere by the terrestrial biosphere (δ18Oland). Photosynthesis transfers the δ18O of chloroplast water (H218O/H216O) directly to the O2 that is produced (Guy et al., 1997). Strong monsoons are expected to produce low values of δ18Oland and thus a weak Dole Effect by 1) the low δ18O of heavy rainfall, 2) weak evaporative enrichment of 18O in leaf water due to the high humidity in which monsoon photosynthesis generally occurs, and 3) weak respiratory fractionation in wet tropical soils (Angert et al., 2003). In fact, our calculated δ18Oland correlates surprisingly well with Asian monsoon strength indicators such as the Dongge Cave record (Wang et al., 2005) at periods >0.2 kyr, except at 6 ka, where a prominent increase in δ18Oland coincides with the drying of the Sahara. These observations suggest that δ18Oland from ice cores may be a useful proxy of past Asian and African monsoon variations that integrates over large spatial scales (because the atmosphere is well-mixed, and photosynthesis is ubiquitous

  17. Spatiotemporal variability of rainfall extremes in monsoonal climates - examples from the South American Monsoon and the Indian Monsoon Systems (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bookhagen, B.; Boers, N.; Marwan, N.; Malik, N.; Kurths, J.

    2013-12-01

    Monsoonal rainfall is the crucial component for more than half of the world's population. Runoff associated with monsoon systems provide water resources for agriculture, hydropower, drinking-water generation, recreation, and social well-being and are thus a fundamental part of human society. However, monsoon systems are highly stochastic and show large variability on various timescales. Here, we use various rainfall datasets to characterize spatiotemporal rainfall patterns using traditional as well as new approaches emphasizing nonlinear spatial correlations from a complex networks perspective. Our analyses focus on the South American (SAMS) and Indian (ISM) Monsoon Systems on the basis of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) using precipitation radar and passive-microwave products with horizontal spatial resolutions of ~5x5 km^2 (products 2A25, 2B31) and 25x25 km^2 (3B42) and interpolated rainfall-gauge data for the ISM (APHRODITE, 25x25 km^2). The eastern slopes of the Andes of South America and the southern front of the Himalaya are characterized by significant orographic barriers that intersect with the moisture-bearing, monsoonal wind systems. We demonstrate that topography exerts a first-order control on peak rainfall amounts on annual timescales in both mountain belts. Flooding in the downstream regions is dominantly caused by heavy rainfall storms that propagate deep into the mountain range and reach regions that are arid and without vegetation cover promoting rapid runoff. These storms exert a significantly different spatial distribution than average-rainfall conditions and assessing their recurrence intervals and prediction is key in understanding flooding for these regions. An analysis of extreme-value distributions of our high-spatial resolution data reveal that semi-arid areas are characterized by low-frequency/high-magnitude events (i.e., are characterized by a ';heavy tail' distribution), whereas regions with high mean annual rainfall have a

  18. Feedback of observed interannual vegetation change: a regional climate model analysis for the West African monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, Cornelia; Bliefernicht, Jan; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Gessner, Ursula; Klein, Igor; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-06-01

    West Africa is a hot spot region for land-atmosphere coupling where atmospheric conditions and convective rainfall can strongly depend on surface characteristics. To investigate the effect of natural interannual vegetation changes on the West African monsoon precipitation, we implement satellite-derived dynamical datasets for vegetation fraction (VF), albedo and leaf area index into the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two sets of 4-member ensembles with dynamic and static land surface description are used to extract vegetation-related changes in the interannual difference between August-September 2009 and 2010. The observed vegetation patterns retain a significant long-term memory of preceding rainfall patterns of at least 2 months. The interannual vegetation changes exhibit the strongest effect on latent heat fluxes and associated surface temperatures. We find a decrease (increase) of rainy hours over regions with higher (lower) VF during the day and the opposite during the night. The probability that maximum precipitation is shifted to nighttime (daytime) over higher (lower) VF is 12 % higher than by chance. We attribute this behaviour to horizontal circulations driven by differential heating. Over more vegetated regions, the divergence of moist air together with lower sensible heat fluxes hinders the initiation of deep convection during the day. During the night, mature convective systems cause an increase in the number of rainy hours over these regions. We identify this feedback in both water- and energy-limited regions of West Africa. The inclusion of observed dynamical surface information improved the spatial distribution of modelled rainfall in the Sahel with respect to observations, illustrating the potential of satellite data as a boundary constraint for atmospheric models.

  19. Skill, reproducibility and potential predictability of the West African monsoon in coupled GCMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Philippon, N.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Ruti, P. M.

    2010-07-01

    In the framework of the ENSEMBLES FP6 project, an ensemble prediction system based on five different state-of-the-art European coupled models has been developed. This study evaluates the performance of these models for forecasting the West African monsoon (WAM) at the monthly time scale. From simulations started the 1 May of each year and covering the period 1991-2001, the reproducibility and potential predictability (PP) of key parameters of the WAM—rainfall, zonal and meridional wind at four levels from the surface to 200 hPa, and specific humidity, from July to September—are assessed. The Sahelian rainfall mode of variability is not accurately reproduced contrary to the Guinean rainfall one: the correlation between observations (from CMAP) and the multi-model ensemble mean is 0.17 and 0.55, respectively. For the Sahelian mode, the correlation is consistent with a low PP of about ~6%. The PP of the Guinean mode is higher, ~44% suggesting a stronger forcing of the sea surface temperature on rainfall variability over this region. Parameters relative to the atmospheric dynamics are on average much more skillful and reproducible than rainfall. Among them, the first mode of variability of the zonal wind at 200 hPa that depicts the Tropical Easterly Jet, is correlated at 0.79 with its “observed” counterpart (from the NCEP/DOE2 reanalyses) and has a PP of 39%. Moreover, models reproduce the correlations between all the atmospheric dynamics parameters and the Sahelian rainfall in a satisfactory way. In that context, a statistical adaptation of the atmospheric dynamic forecasts, using a linear regression model with the leading principal components of the atmospheric dynamical parameters studied, leads to moderate receiver operating characteristic area under the curve and correlation skill scores for the Sahelian rainfall. These scores are however much higher than those obtained using the modelled rainfall.

  20. Mutual interaction between the West African Monsoon on the summer Mediterranean climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaetani, M.; Baldi, M.; Dalu, G. A.

    2009-04-01

    Many studies have show that the West African Monsoon (WAM) is teleconnected with neighbouring regions, as the Mediterranean (Med) basin and the Tropical Atlantic, but also it is sensitive to the perturbations occurring even in remote regions, as the Indian sub-continent and the Tropical Pacific, these teleconnections being active on several time-scales, from intraseasonal to multidecadal. The WAM plays also an active role in the regional atmospheric circulation, inducing significant changes in rainfall, moisture, temperature, and wind distribution up to the North Africa. Within this framework, recent works were focused on the teleconnection between WAM and Med. WAM is strengthened by the north-easterly advection of moisture from the Med Sea, and, since the subsiding monsoonal air often invades the Med, there is a 2-way interaction between WAM and Med summer circulation. We study these interactions, applying SVD analysis to global NCEP Reanalysis and to rainfall data from CMAP, during the extended monsoonal season from May to October, on interannual and on intraseasonal time-scale. Dynamical features are explored using composite analysis, focusing on the role of this connection in the heat waves occurrence in the Med. We find that a strong WAM intensifies the Hadley meridional circulation, with a strengthening of the north Atlantic anticyclone and a weakening, even blocking, of the westerly flow in the Med. A deep inland penetration of WAM produces a northern shift of the Libyan anticyclone, with subsidence and high pressure affecting mainly the western Med. The positive feedback is due to the intensification of north-easterly flow from the eastern Med, which, reaching the Sahara desert, intensifies the intertropical front, favouring abundant monsoonal precipitation because of the added moist air.

  1. Half-precessional dynamics of monsoon rainfall near the East African Equator.

    PubMed

    Verschuren, Dirk; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Moernaut, Jasper; Kristen, Iris; Blaauw, Maarten; Fagot, Maureen; Haug, Gerald H

    2009-12-01

    External climate forcings-such as long-term changes in solar insolation-generate different climate responses in tropical and high latitude regions. Documenting the spatial and temporal variability of past climates is therefore critical for understanding how such forcings are translated into regional climate variability. In contrast to the data-rich middle and high latitudes, high-quality climate-proxy records from equatorial regions are relatively few, especially from regions experiencing the bimodal seasonal rainfall distribution associated with twice-annual passage of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Here we present a continuous and well-resolved climate-proxy record of hydrological variability during the past 25,000 years from equatorial East Africa. Our results, based on complementary evidence from seismic-reflection stratigraphy and organic biomarker molecules in the sediment record of Lake Challa near Mount Kilimanjaro, reveal that monsoon rainfall in this region varied at half-precessional ( approximately 11,500-year) intervals in phase with orbitally controlled insolation forcing. The southeasterly and northeasterly monsoons that advect moisture from the western Indian Ocean were strengthened in alternation when the inter-hemispheric insolation gradient was at a maximum; dry conditions prevailed when neither monsoon was intensified and modest local March or September insolation weakened the rain season that followed. On sub-millennial timescales, the temporal pattern of hydrological change on the East African Equator bears clear high-northern-latitude signatures, but on the orbital timescale it mainly responded to low-latitude insolation forcing. Predominance of low-latitude climate processes in this monsoon region can be attributed to the low-latitude position of its continental regions of surface air flow convergence, and its relative isolation from the Atlantic Ocean, where prominent meridional overturning circulation more tightly couples low

  2. Variability of West African monsoon patterns generated by a WRF multi-physics ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, Cornelia; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstmann, Harald

    2015-11-01

    The credibility of regional climate simulations over West Africa stands and falls with the ability to reproduce the West African monsoon (WAM) whose precipitation plays a pivotal role for people's livelihood. In this study, we simulate the WAM for the wet year 1999 with a 27-member multi-physics ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We investigate the inter-member differences in a process-based manner in order to extract generalizable information on the behavior of the tested cumulus (CU), microphysics (MP), and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes. Precipitation, temperature and atmospheric dynamics are analyzed in comparison to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall estimates, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) gridded gauge-analysis, the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) gridded temperature product and the forcing data (ERA-Interim) to explore interdependencies of processes leading to a certain WAM regime. We find that MP and PBL schemes contribute most to the ensemble spread (147 mm month-1) for monsoon precipitation over the study region. Furthermore, PBL schemes have a strong influence on the movement of the WAM rainband because of their impact on the cloud fraction, that ranges from 8 to 20 % at 600 hPa during August. More low- and mid-level clouds result in less incoming radiation and a weaker monsoon. Ultimately, we identify the differing intensities of the moist Hadley-type meridional circulation that connects the monsoon winds to the Tropical Easterly Jet as the main source for inter-member differences. The ensemble spread of Sahel precipitation and associated dynamics for August 1999 is comparable to the observed inter-annual spread (1979-2010) between dry and wet years, emphasizing the strong potential impact of regional processes and the need for a careful selection of model parameterizations.

  3. The Mid-Holocene West African Monsoon strength modulated by Saharan dust and vegetation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pausata, F. S. R.; Messori, G.; Zhang, Q.

    2015-12-01

    The West African Monsoon (WAM) is crucial for the socio-economic stability of millions of people living in the Sahel. Severe droughts have ravaged the region in the last three decades of the 20th century, highlighting the need for a better understanding of the WAM dynamics. One of the most dramatic changes in the WAM occurred between 15,000-5,000 years BP, when increased summer precipitation led to the so-called "Green Sahara" and to a reduction in dust emissions from the region. Previous studies have shown that variations in vegetation and soil type can have major impacts on precipitation. However, model simulations are still unable to fully reproduce the intensification and geographical expansion of the African monsoon during that period, even when vegetation over the Sahara is simulated. Here, we use a fully coupled simulation for 6000 years BP in which prescribed Saharan vegetation and dust concentrations are changed in turn. A close agreement with proxy records is obtained only when both Saharan vegetation and dust decrease are taken into account (Fig. 1). The dust reduction extends the monsoon's northern limit further than the vegetation-change case only (Fig. 2), by strengthening vegetation-albedo feedbacks and driving a deeper Saharan Heat Low. The dust reduction under vegetated Sahara conditions leads to a northward shift of the WAM extension that is about twice as large as the shift due to the changes in orbital forcing alone. We therefore conclude that accounting for changes in Saharan dust loadings is essential for improving model simulations of the MH WAM. The role of dust is also relevant when looking into the future, since Saharan dust emission may decrease owing to both direct and indirect anthropogenic impacts on land cover.

  4. The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

    2012-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

  5. Dry intrusions in the West African monsoon mid-troposphere during the AMMA experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deme, A.; Roca, R.

    2009-04-01

    Mid-troposphere dry air patches (RH < 10%) have been recently detected over the African monsoon region and in particular over Sahel. At 500 hPa, these dry air features are thought to play a complex role onto convection: inhibition isolated convective cells but favouring already organized convection by feeding rear-inflow currents with dry air. The inhibiting action of the dry air onto convection comes from the temperature inversion induced by radiation at the bottom of the dry layer and/or by entrainment of dry air in ascending parcel that decreases its buoyancy. The organizing effect is associated to mesoscale currents within and around long lasting squall lines. This mid-tropospheric dry air has been shown to originate from the mid-latitudes upper level jets, therefore coined extra-tropical dry intrusions.Among all the forcings that control the dynamics of the West African monsoon, the role of a dry mid-troposphere needs to be clarified. The present study is dedicated to this objective and it is focused on extra-tropical dry air intrusions in the West African mid-troposphere during the AMMA campaign. The low level dynamics is documented (African Easterly Jet, African Easterly Wave) thanks to the NCEP operational analysis. It is completed by the radiosondes especially for the temperature and water vapor distribution. Back-trajectory are computed in order to highlight the origin of the tropospheric air mass. Finally Meteosat Second Generation derived water vapor and cloud and rainfall parameters are used to characterize the convective activity and its moist environment. Dry intrusions in the African mid troposphere during the summer 2006 have been shown to be associated with two major modes of occurrences: a 40-50 days mode and a 10-20 days mode. The long mode exhibits negative anomaly of the rainfall and a very large scale structure covering the whole West Africa region when occurring while the short mode is more restricted to the Sahelian longitude. Similarly

  6. Land-surface processes and monsoon climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Differential thermal heating of land and ocean and heat release into the atmosphere are important factors that determine the onset, strength, duration and spatial distribution of large-scale monsoons. A global and seasonal assessment of land surface process (LSP) effects on the monsoon system has been made based on general circulation models (GCM) coupled to different benchmark land models, which physically represent either comprehensive, or partial, or minimal LSP representations. Observed precipitation is applied as constrain and differences in simulation error are used to assess the effect of the LSP with different complexity. The AGCM results indicate that the land/atmosphere interaction has substantial impact on global water cycle, while the monsoon regions have had strongest impact at intraseasonal to decadal scales. Among monsoon regions, West Africa, South Asia, East Asia, and Amazon regions have largest impact while some monsoon regions have less impact due to strong air/sea interactions and narrow land mass. LSP reduces the annual precipitation error by 58% over global monsoon regions, about 35% observed precipitation. The partial LSP effect (excluding soil moisture and vegetation albedo) reduces annual precipitation error over monsoon region that equals to about 13% of observed precipitation. It has also been suggested that LSP contribute to the abrupt jump in latitude of the East Asian monsoon as well as general circulation turning in some monsoon regions in its early stages. The LSP effects have also been assessed in the land use land cover change experiment. Based on recently compiled global land-use data from 1948-2005, the GCM simulation results indicate the degradation in Mexico, West Africa, south and East Asia and South America produce substantial precipitation anomalies, some of which are consistent with observed regional precipitation anomalies. More comprehensive studies with multi-models are imperatively necessary.

  7. Land-surface processes and monsoon climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Yongkang; De Sales, Fernando; Lau, William; Boone, Arron; Mechoso, Carlos

    2015-04-01

    Yongkang Xue, F. De Sales, B. Lau, A. Boone, C. R. Mechoso Differential thermal heating of land and ocean and heat release into the atmosphere are important factors that determine the onset, strength, duration and spatial distribution of large-scale monsoons. A global and seasonal assessment of land surface process (LSP) effects on the monsoon system has been made based on general circulation models (GCM) coupled to different benchmark land models, which physically represent either comprehensive, or partial, or minimal LSP representations. Observed precipitation is applied as constrain and differences in simulation error are used to assess the effect of the LSP with different complexity. The AGCM results indicate that the land/atmosphere interaction has substantial impact on global water cycle, while the monsoon regions have had strongest impact at intraseasonal to decadal scales. Among monsoon regions, West Africa, South Asia, East Asia, and Amazon regions have largest impact while some monsoon regions have less impact due to strong air/sea interactions and narrow land mass there. LSP reduces the annual precipitation error by 58% over global monsoon regions, about 35% observed precipitation. The partial LSP effect (excluding soil moisture and vegetation albedo) reduces annual precipitation error over monsoon region that equals to about 13% of observed precipitation. The LSP affects the monsoon evolution through different mechanisms at different scales. It affects the surface energy balance and energy partitioning in latent and sensible heat, the atmospheric heating rate, and general circulation. The LSP effects have also been assessed in the land use land cover change experiment. Based on recently compiled global land-use data from 1948-2005, the GCM simulation results indicate the degradation in Mexico, West Africa, south and East Asia and South America produce substantial precipitation anomalies, some of which are consistent with observed regional precipitation

  8. West African monsoon dynamics inferred from abrupt fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad

    PubMed Central

    Armitage, Simon J.; Bristow, Charlie S.; Drake, Nick A.

    2015-01-01

    From the deglacial period to the mid-Holocene, North Africa was characterized by much wetter conditions than today. The broad timing of this period, termed the African Humid Period, is well known. However, the rapidity of the onset and termination of the African Humid Period are contested, with strong evidence for both abrupt and gradual change. We use optically stimulated luminescence dating of dunes, shorelines, and fluviolacustrine deposits to reconstruct the fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad, which was the largest pluvial lake in Africa. Humid conditions first occur at ∼15 ka, and by 11.5 ka, Lake Mega-Chad had reached a highstand, which persisted until 5.0 ka. Lake levels fell rapidly at ∼5 ka, indicating abrupt aridification across the entire Lake Mega-Chad Basin. This record provides strong terrestrial evidence that the African Humid Period ended abruptly, supporting the hypothesis that the African monsoon responds to insolation forcing in a markedly nonlinear manner. In addition, Lake Mega-Chad exerts strong control on global biogeochemical cycles because the northern (Bodélé) basin is currently the world’s greatest single dust source and possibly an important source of limiting nutrients for both the Amazon Basin and equatorial Atlantic. However, we demonstrate that the final desiccation of the Bodélé Basin occurred around 1 ka. Consequently, the present-day mode and scale of dust production from the Bodélé Basin cannot have occurred before 1 ka, suggesting that its role in fertilizing marine and terrestrial ecosystems is either overstated or geologically recent. PMID:26124133

  9. West African monsoon dynamics inferred from abrupt fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad.

    PubMed

    Armitage, Simon J; Bristow, Charlie S; Drake, Nick A

    2015-07-14

    From the deglacial period to the mid-Holocene, North Africa was characterized by much wetter conditions than today. The broad timing of this period, termed the African Humid Period, is well known. However, the rapidity of the onset and termination of the African Humid Period are contested, with strong evidence for both abrupt and gradual change. We use optically stimulated luminescence dating of dunes, shorelines, and fluviolacustrine deposits to reconstruct the fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad, which was the largest pluvial lake in Africa. Humid conditions first occur at ∼ 15 ka, and by 11.5 ka, Lake Mega-Chad had reached a highstand, which persisted until 5.0 ka. Lake levels fell rapidly at ∼ 5 ka, indicating abrupt aridification across the entire Lake Mega-Chad Basin. This record provides strong terrestrial evidence that the African Humid Period ended abruptly, supporting the hypothesis that the African monsoon responds to insolation forcing in a markedly nonlinear manner. In addition, Lake Mega-Chad exerts strong control on global biogeochemical cycles because the northern (Bodélé) basin is currently the world's greatest single dust source and possibly an important source of limiting nutrients for both the Amazon Basin and equatorial Atlantic. However, we demonstrate that the final desiccation of the Bodélé Basin occurred around 1 ka. Consequently, the present-day mode and scale of dust production from the Bodélé Basin cannot have occurred before 1 ka, suggesting that its role in fertilizing marine and terrestrial ecosystems is either overstated or geologically recent.

  10. Lake Mega-Chad, a West African Monsoon indicator and tipping element

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armitage, Simon; Bristow, Charlie; Drake, Nick

    2015-04-01

    From the deglacial period to the mid-Holocene, North Africa was characterised by much wetter conditions than today. The broad timing of this period, termed the African Humid Period, is well known. However, the rapidity of the onset and termination of the African Humid Period are contested, with strong evidence for both abrupt and gradual change. We use optically stimulated luminescence dating of dunes, shorelines and fluvio-lacustrine deposits to reconstruct the fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad, which was the largest pluvial lake in Africa. Humid conditions first occur at ~15 ka, followed by a return to relatively arid conditions. By 11.5 ka Lake Mega-Chad had reached a highstand, which persisted until 5.0 ka. Lake levels fell rapidly at 5 ka, indicating abrupt aridification across the entire Lake Mega-Chad Basin. This record provides strong terrestrial evidence that the African Humid Period ended abruptly, supporting the hypothesis that the African monsoon responds to insolation forcing in a markedly non-linear manner. In addition, Lake Mega-Chad exerts strong control on global biogeochemical cycles since the northern (Bodélé) basin is currently the World's greatest single dust source, and possibly an important source of limiting nutrients for both the Amazon basin and equatorial Atlantic. However, we demonstrate that the final desiccation of the Bodélé Basin occurred around 1 ka. Consequently, the present-day mode and scale of dust production from Bodélé Basin cannot have occurred prior to 1 ka, suggesting that its role in fertilizing marine and terrestrial ecosystems is either overstated or geologically recent.

  11. Daily characteristics of West African summer monsoon precipitation in CORDEX simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klutse, Nana Ama Browne; Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Diallo, Ismaila; Sarr, Abdoulaye; Dosio, Alessandro; Diedhiou, Arona; Kamga, Andre; Lamptey, Benjamin; Ali, Abdou; Gbobaniyi, Emiola O.; Owusu, Kwadwo; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Nikulin, Grigory; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen; Büchner, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    We analyze and intercompare the performance of a set of ten regional climate models (RCMs) along with the ensemble mean of their statistics in simulating daily precipitation characteristics during the West African monsoon (WAM) period (June-July-August-September). The experiments are conducted within the framework of the COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments for the African domain. We find that the RCMs exhibit substantial differences that are associated with a wide range of estimates of higher-order statistics, such as intensity, frequency, and daily extremes mostly driven by the convective scheme employed. For instance, a number of the RCMs simulate a similar number of wet days compared to observations but greater rainfall intensity, especially in oceanic regions adjacent to the Guinea Highlands because of a larger number of heavy precipitation events. Other models exhibit a higher wet-day frequency but much lower rainfall intensity over West Africa due to the occurrence of less frequent heavy rainfall events. This indicates the existence of large uncertainties related to the simulation of daily rainfall characteristics by the RCMs. The ensemble mean of the indices substantially improves the RCMs' simulated frequency and intensity of precipitation events, moderately outperforms that of the 95th percentile, and provides mixed benefits for the dry and wet spells. Although the ensemble mean improved results cannot be generalized, such an approach produces encouraging results and can help, to some extent, to improve the robustness of the response of the WAM daily precipitation to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming.

  12. Bias reduction in decadal predictions of West African monsoon rainfall using regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paxian, A.; Sein, D.; Panitz, H.-J.; Warscher, M.; Breil, M.; Engel, T.; Tödter, J.; Krause, A.; Cabos Narvaez, W. D.; Fink, A. H.; Ahrens, B.; Kunstmann, H.; Jacob, D.; Paeth, H.

    2016-02-01

    The West African monsoon rainfall is essential for regional food production, and decadal predictions are necessary for policy makers and farmers. However, predictions with global climate models reveal precipitation biases. This study addresses the hypotheses that global prediction biases can be reduced by dynamical downscaling with a multimodel ensemble of three regional climate models (RCMs), a RCM coupled to a global ocean model and a RCM applying more realistic soil initialization and boundary conditions, i.e., aerosols, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), vegetation, and land cover. Numerous RCM predictions have been performed with REMO, COSMO-CLM (CCLM), and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in various versions and for different decades. Global predictions reveal typical positive and negative biases over the Guinea Coast and the Sahel, respectively, related to a southward shifted Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a positive tropical Atlantic SST bias. These rainfall biases are reduced by some regional predictions in the Sahel but aggravated by all RCMs over the Guinea Coast, resulting from the inherited SST bias, increased westerlies and evaporation over the tropical Atlantic and shifted African easterly waves. The coupled regional predictions simulate high-resolution atmosphere-ocean interactions strongly improving the SST bias, the ITCZ shift and the Guinea Coast and Central Sahel precipitation biases. Some added values in rainfall bias are found for more realistic SST and land cover boundary conditions over the Guinea Coast and improved vegetation in the Central Sahel. Thus, the ability of RCMs and improved boundary conditions to reduce rainfall biases for climate impact research depends on the considered West African region.

  13. Past changes of the North African monsoon intensity between 5 and 6.2 My, impact of the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ségueni, F.; Colin, C.; Siani, G.; Frank, N.; Blamart, D.; Kissel, C.; Liu, Z.; Richter, T.; Suc, J.

    2006-12-01

    A high resolution multiproxy study by oxygen isotope record (δ18O) on benthic foraminifera (Cibicides wuellerstorfii), magnetic susceptibility, clay mineralogy (DRX), major - trace elements (XRF core scanner and ICPMS) and Rb/Sr - Nd isotopes was carried out from site ODP 659 along the Cape Verde off Africa. The aim was to reconstruct variations of African Monsoon during the Mio-Pliocene in the time interval from 5 My to 6,2 My. Chronology was established by linear interpolation between 3 bio-events based on calcareous nannoplancton zones, 2 glacial stages TG12 and TG22 identified on δ18O records and by tuning the δ18O and magnetic susceptibility records to the orbital parameter of obliquity and precession. Results indicate that between 5 to 6.2 My variability in the eolian input from Sahara and the coastal upwelling intensity are anti-correlated and make it possible to retrace the evolution of northern African Monsoon. The latter co- varies mainly with the insolation received by the earth at low latitude during the summer. Maximal insolation enhance summer monsoonal effects by increasing wetter conditions on Sahel and NE dominance wind system cause a reduced eolian input and an increased biogenic sea surface productivity by coastal upwelling. On the other hand, minimal insolation reinforce winter monsoon that create a more arid climate on Sahel and stronger westward winds that increase eolian flux on Cap Verde with a reduced upwelling effect on sea surface productivity. At a longer time scale, the end of the MSC is correlated with a major change of the African Monsoon intensity. Finally, the δ18O record on C.wuellerstorfii suggests that global eustatic processes didn't play a key role in the MSC history. Nevertheless, transition between glacial stage TG12 and the interglacial TG11 seems to correspond to a major event within the MSC, and associated to the beginning of the upper evaporite deposits. Thus, the facies of the Lago Mare of the upper evaporites would

  14. Sst and Ghg Impacts On The West African Monsoon Climate: A Superensemble Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paeth, H.; Hense, A.

    West African rainfall has been subject to large interdecadal variations during the 20th century. The most prominent feature is a negative trend in annual precipitation after 1960, causing severe drought in the Sahel region and the southern part of West Africa, with some recoverage in recent years. We examine and quantify the influence of ob- served SST changes on low-frequency variability over the subcontinent and compare it with the additional impact of increasing GHG concentrations, as revealed by a su- perensemble of SST-driven experiments. SST is largely responsible for decadal and longer-term variability over the southern part of West Africa, accounting for almost 80 % of monsoonal rainfall variance. The additional impact of the enhanced green- house effect is weak but statistically significant by the year 1980, obviously associ- ated with a positive trend in annual precipitation. This positive trend is also found in GHG-induced coupled climate model projection into the future. The CO2 signal is again weak but statistically significant and consistent with different climate models, as revealed by a superensemble of coupled experiments.

  15. New approach for aerosol profiling with a lidar onboard an ultralight aircraft: application to the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis.

    PubMed

    Chazette, Patrick; Sanak, Joseph; Dulac, François

    2007-12-15

    A new airborne instrumental payload has been designed for an ultralight aircraft to determine the vertical profile of aerosol optical properties. It is based on Lidar Aérosols UltraViolet Aéroporté (LAUVA), a compact backscattering lidar system emitting at the wavelength of 355 nm. We operated this airborne configuration in the Sahel from the city of Niamey (Niger) during the first campaign of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) in January-February 2006, when aerosols from both soil dust and savannah fires cause large visibility reductions. We take advantage of the lidar capability of pointing in different directions for retrieving the vertical profile of the aerosol backscatter to extinction ratio (BER). A synergy with a scatterometer (880 nm) and a ground-based sunphotometer allows us to further determine the vertical profile of Angström exponent (a). We identify three types of aerosol layers up to about 5 km below the free troposphere, dominated by biomass burning (BB) particles, mineral dust (D) particles, and a mixing between BB and D particles, respectively, associated with BER (a) values close to 0.008 sr(-1) (1.5), 0.025 sr(-1) (0), and 0.015 sr(-1) (0.4-1).

  16. Impact of GCM boundary forcing on regional climate modeling of West African summer monsoon precipitation and circulation features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kebe, Ibourahima; Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Omotosho, Jerome Adebayo; Nikiema, Pinghouinde Michel; Gibba, Peter; Giorgi, Filippo

    2016-05-01

    In this study, the latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) driven by three CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) is used at 25 km grid spacing over West Africa to investigate the impact of lateral boundary forcings on the simulation of monsoon precipitation and its relationship with regional circulation features. We find that the RegCM4 experiments along with their multimodel ensemble generally reproduce the location of the main precipitation characteristics over the region and improve upon the corresponding driving GCMs. However, the provision of different forcing boundary conditions leads to substantially different precipitation magnitudes and spatial patterns. For instance, while RegCM4 nested within GFDL-ESM-2M and HadGEM2-ES exhibits some underestimations of precipitation and an excessively narrow Intertropical Convergence Zone, the MPI-ESM-MR driven run produces precipitation spatial distribution and magnitudes more similar to observations. Such a superior performance originates from a much better simulation of the interactions between baroclinicity, temperature gradient and African Easterly Jet along with an improved connection between the Isentropic Potential Vorticity, its gradient and the African Easterly Waves dynamics. We conclude that a good performing GCM in terms of monsoon dynamical features (in this case MPI-ESM-MR) is needed to drive RCMs in order to achieve a better representation of the West Africa summer monsoon precipitation.

  17. Impacts of dust reduction on the northward expansion of the African monsoon during the Green Sahara period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Messori, Gabriele; Zhang, Qiong

    2016-01-01

    The West African Monsoon (WAM) is crucial for the socio-economic stability of millions of people living in the Sahel. Severe droughts have ravaged the region in the last three decades of the 20th century, highlighting the need for a better understanding of the WAM dynamics. One of the most dramatic changes in the West African Monsoon (WAM) occurred between 15000-5000 yr BP, when increased summer rainfall led to the so-called "Green Sahara" and to a reduction in dust emissions from the region. However, model experiments are unable to fully reproduce the intensification and geographical expansion of the WAM during this period, even when vegetation over the Sahara is considered. Here, we use a fully coupled simulation for 6000 yr BP (Mid-Holocene) in which prescribed Saharan vegetation and dust concentrations are changed in turn. A closer agreement with proxy records is obtained only when both the Saharan vegetation changes and dust decrease are taken into account. The dust reduction strengthens the vegetation-albedo feedback, extending the monsoon's northern limit approximately 500 km further than the vegetation-change case only. We therefore conclude that accounting for changes in Saharan dust loadings is essential for improving model simulations of the WAM during the Mid-Holocene.

  18. Significant impacts of radiation physics in the Weather Research and Forecasting model on the precipitation and dynamics of the West African Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, R.; Jin, J.; Wang, S.-Y.; Gillies, R. R.

    2015-03-01

    Precipitation from the West African Monsoon (WAM) provides food security and supports the economy in the region. As a consequence of the intrinsic complexities of the WAM's evolution, accurate simulations of the WAM and its precipitation regime, through the application of regional climate models, are challenging. We used the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Land Model (CLM) to explore impacts of radiation physics on the precipitation and dynamics of the WAM. Our results indicate that the radiation physics schemes not only produce biases in radiation fluxes impacting radiative forcing, but more importantly, result in large bias in precipitation of the WAM. Furthermore, the different radiation schemes led to variations in the meridional gradient of surface temperature between the north that is the Sahara desert and the south Guinean coastline. Climate diagnostics indicated that the changes in the meridional gradient of surface temperature affect the position and strength of the African Easterly Jet as well as the low-level monsoonal inflow from the Gulf of Guinea. The net result was that each radiation scheme produced differences in the WAM precipitation regime both spatially and in intensity. Such considerable variances in the WAM precipitation regime and dynamics, resulting from radiation representations, likely have strong feedbacks within the climate system and so have inferences when it comes to aspects of predicted climate change both for the region and globally.

  19. West African Monsoon dynamics in idealized simulations: the competitive roles of SST warming and CO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaetani, Marco; Flamant, Cyrille; Hourdin, Frederic; Bastin, Sophie; Braconnot, Pascale; Bony, Sandrine

    2015-04-01

    The West African Monsoon (WAM) is affected by large climate variability at different timescales, from interannual to multidecadal, with strong environmental and socio-economic impacts associated to climate-related rainfall variability, especially in the Sahelian belt. State-of-the-art coupled climate models still show poor ability in correctly simulating the WAM past variability and also a large spread is observed in future climate projections. In this work, the July-to-September (JAS) WAM variability in the period 1979-2008 is studied in AMIP-like simulations (SST-forced) from CMIP5. The individual roles of global SST warming and CO2 concentration increasing are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4K warmer SST and a 4x CO2 concentration, respectively. Results show a dry response in Sahel to SST warming, with dryer conditions over western Sahel. On the contrary, wet conditions are observed when CO2 is increased, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel. The precipitation changes are associated to modifications in the regional atmospheric circulation: dry (wet) conditions are associated with reduced (increased) convergence in the lower troposphere, a southward (northward) shift of the African Easterly Jet, and a weaker (stronger) Tropical Easterly Jet. The co-variability between global SST and WAM precipitation is also investigated, highlighting a reorganization of the main co-variability modes. Namely, in the 4xCO2 simulation the influence of Tropical Pacific is dominant, while it is reduced in the 4K simulation, which also shows an increased coupling with the eastern Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The above results suggest a competitive action of SST warming and CO2 increasing on the WAM climate variability, with opposite effects on precipitation. The combination of the observed positive and negative response in precipitation, with wet conditions in central-eastern Sahel and dry conditions in western Sahel, is consistent with the

  20. Analyse of direct and indirect effects of Saharan dust on convection and on the African monsoon circulation during the FENNEC project using WRF-CHEM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavaysse, Christophe; Flamant, Cyrille; Grabowski, Wojciech; Morisson, Hugh; Banks, Jamie

    2013-04-01

    The aim of this study is to analyse the local impacts of dust on convection and on the West African monsoon circulation. Using the regional models WRF-CHEM, different dust schemes have been tested to quantify the impacts of dust on convection and on the main components of the West African monsoon, such as the West African Heat Low (WAHL), African Easterly Waves (AEWs), monsoon and harmatan winds. The specific pre-onset period of the monsoon precipitation over the Sahel has been simulated, in 2011 during the FENNEC project. We have investigated a 15-day period from June 10th to 25th. During this period, high dust concentration over the Sahara has been detected using satellite observations and the WAHL settled in its summer Saharan location. In this study, we have observed that WRF-CHEM is able to reproduce dust outbreaks and transport as detected in the satellite and airborne observations. This study also highlights the two effects of dust on the monsoon circulation over the Sahara: a so-called direct effect associated with dust radiative heating, which increases the WAHL thickness, and a so called indirect effect that modifies mid-level and deep convection over the Sahel.

  1. Bipolar modulation of millennial-scale West African monsoon variability during the last glacial (75,000-25,000 years ago)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weldeab, Syee

    2012-04-01

    Time series of planktonic foraminiferal δ18O and Ba/Ca-based sea surface salinity (SSS) estimates from the eastern Gulf of Guinea (eastern equatorial Atlantic) indicate changes in runoff that reflect variability of spatially integrated precipitation over the equatorial West African monsoon area. Millennial-scale and recurring runoff-induced SSS rises and declines in the range of 1.5 and 2 psu (practical salinity unit) reveal rapid oscillation between dry and wet phases. The timing of decreased runoff coincides with oscillation of Dansgaard-Oeschger stadials and Heinrich events, the most severe monsoon weakening correlating with the latter. δ18Oresidual time series, derived by removing temperature, ice volume, and salinity components from the foraminiferal δ18O record, suggest that weak monsoon precipitation during stadials and Heinrich events was accompanied by significant shifts in δ18Oprecipitation toward higher values. Furthermore, δ18O analysis of individual tests of Globigerinoides ruber pink (δ18Oindiv) during dry episodes show a total range and variance of 2.3‰ and 0.25 (n = 121), indicating that seasonal contrast of sea surface freshening was significantly reduced during Heinrich events relative to that of interstadials which show a total range and variance of 3.35‰ and 0.42 (n = 140). On the basis of the timing and magnitude of changes in the monsoon record, it is evident that northern high latitude climate was the most dominant control on the West African monsoon variability. However, a southern high latitude imprint is also apparent during some episodes. This centennially resolved climate record demonstrates that the equatorial West African monsoon experienced profound changes in the amount, seasonal contrast, and moisture source of summer monsoon precipitation during the last glacial. The most plausible mechanism is a large-scale southward displacement of the monsoon trough, most likely initiated by large-scale reorganization of atmospheric

  2. Sensitivity of the African and Asian Monsoons to Mid-Holocene Insolation and Data-Inferred Surface Changes.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Texier, Delphine; de Noblet, Nathalie; Braconnot, Pascale

    2000-01-01

    Orbital forcing alone is not sufficient to explain the massive northward penetration of monsoon rains in Africa shown by data during the mid-Holocene (6000 yr ago). Feedbacks associated with changes in SSTs and land surface cover may be necessary to produce a sufficient increase in the monsoon. A step toward a better understanding of the respective role of oceans and land surfaces is to design sensitivity studies with prescribed forcings, inferred from observations. In the first study, SSTs are lowered in the upwelling regions offshore of West Africa and Somalia, and increased in the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. In the second simulation, the modern Sahara desert is replaced by a combination of xerophytic woods/scrub and grassland.In both cases the amount of water vapor advected from oceanic sources is increased north of 10°N in Africa in response to the increased land-sea temperature contrast, thereby enhancing rainfall. But the magnitude of the simulated changes is much larger when land surface is modified. The lower albedo (compared to desert) increases the amount of radiation absorbed by the surface in northern Africa and warms it up, and the larger roughness length increases both the sensible and latent heat fluxes. Moreover, vegetation is more efficient in recycling water than a bare soil, and the release of latent heat in the atmosphere increases convection, which in turn helps maintain the onshore oceanic advection. The monsoon season is then lengthened by 1-2 months compared to all other simulations reported in the paper.The intensity of monsoon rains is also modified in Asia in both sensitivity experiments. Warmer SSTs in the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea reduce the land-sea contrast and therefore the inland penetration of monsoon rains. Changes in the position of the main large-scale convergence area in the case of a green Sahara enhances the precipitation in India.Changes are also discussed in terms of atmospheric circulation. For example, the

  3. Sensitivity of the simulated African monsoon of summers 1993 and 1999 to convective parameterization schemes in RegCM3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tchotchou, L. A. Djiotang; Kamga, F. Mkankam

    2010-03-01

    In this study, the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) was used to investigate the sensitivity of the simulation of the West African monsoon using four different cumulus and closures parameterization schemes of Anthes Kuo (AK), Grell and Fristish Chappell (GFC), Grell and Arakawa Schubert (GAS), and MIT-Emmanuel (EM) while maintaining other physical packages unchanged. The contrasting monsoon years of 1993 and 1999, which were dry and wet years, respectively, were simulated. The model was integrated from a period of 5 months, starting from May 1 to September 30 of each year using the European Centre for Medium-Range-Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis data (ERA40) as input boundary conditions. The 6-hourly reanalysis data were used to provide the lateral boundary conditions, and the observed weekly Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature interpolated to 6 h was used as the lower boundary forcing. The results show that in West Africa, monsoon precipitations are sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and closure schemes. None of the schemes is able to simulate the monsoon rainfall accurately, and furthermore, there is little difference in behavior among schemes between dry and wet years. The spatial features of precipitation are not identical among schemes, although they all show a northward shift of the rain bands, giving a very wet Sahel and dry Guinean Coast. The GFC and EM schemes are able to capture the diurnal cycle of precipitation and the zonal averages of stratiform rain fractions as observed in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), although they overestimated rainfall amounts. The most important deficiencies, however, cannot be attributed to the schemes. In particular, the northward shift of both the rain band and the AEJ in RegCM3 is the result of unrealistic soil moisture resulting from the way albedo is parameterized, leading to an excessive northward penetration of monsoon flow. A

  4. Transport pathways of peroxyacetyl nitrate in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from different monsoon systems during the summer monsoon season

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fadnavis, S.; Semeniuk, K.; Schultz, M. G.; Mahajan, A.; Pozzoli, L.; Sonbawane, S.; Kiefer, M.

    2014-08-01

    The Asian summer monsoon involves complex transport patterns with large scale redistribution of trace gases in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). We employ the global chemistry-climate model ECHAM5-HAMMOZ in order to evaluate the transport pathways and the contributions of nitrogen oxide reservoir species PAN, NOx, and HNO3 from various monsoon regions, to the UTLS over Southern Asia and vice versa. The model is evaluated with trace gas retrievals from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS-E) and aircraft campaigns during the monsoon season (June-September). There are three regions which contribute substantial pollution to the UTLS during the monsoon: the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), the North American Monsoon (NAM) and the West African monsoon (WAM). However, penetration due to ASM convection is deeper into the UTLS as compared to NAM and WAM outflow. The circulation in these monsoon regions distributes PAN into the tropical latitude belt in the upper troposphere. Remote transport also occurs in the extratropical upper troposphere where westerly winds drive North American and European pollutants eastward to partly merge with the ASM plume. Strong ASM convection transports these remote and regional pollutants into the lower stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere the injected pollutants are transported westward by easterly winds. The intense convective activity in the monsoon regions is associated with lightning generation and thereby the emission of NOy species. This will affect the distribution of PAN in the UTLS. The estimates of lightning produced PAN, HNO3, NOx and ozone obtained from control and lightning-off simulations shows high percentage changes over the regions of convective transport especially equatorial Africa and America and comparatively less over the ASM. This indicates higher anthropogenic pollution transport from the ASM region into the UTLS.

  5. Interannual vs decadal SST forced responses of the West African monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belen

    2010-05-01

    One of the strongest interdecadal signals on the planet has been observed in the Sahelian rainfall during the second half of the XXth century, from wet conditions in the 50's and 60's to drier conditions after the 70's. Parallel to this, several decadal signals have experienced a change from the 70's, and also the influence of the global warming has increased from this decade. From a global perspective the West African rainfall variability is highly modulated by SST forced signals. Many works have pointed out to the Atlantic and Pacific equatorial modes influence on interannual timescales; and to the AMO and the Pacific and Indian Ocean at multidecadal timescales. In the AMMA-EU context the modulation of the interannual modes by the decadal variability together with the influence of the GW has been studied by analysing the interannual modes of variability before and after the 70's. The results indicate the presence of different interannual telecconections between these two periods and, hence, of different anomalous rainfall responses. The importance of the background state modulated by multidecadal variability in the interannual modes is stated in this work. Also, an interesting discussion appears if we wonder whether or not the background state is affected, in turn, by anthropogenic climate change. Recent observational and GCM studies have shown, following the results of Polo et al. (2008), how the Atlantic and Pacific Niños present a dynamical link during the last decades of the XX century (Rodriguez-Fonseca et al., 2009). In this way, the positive (negative) phase of the summer Pacific Niño signal has been found to be connected with a negative (positive) phase of the Equatorial Atlantic mode (EM or Atlantic Niño, Polo et al., 2008); a pattern which leads the summer Atlantic variability. The determinant impact of this connection on the WA monsoon has been addressed by defining a global summer tropical mode accounting for more than the 60% of the rainfall

  6. Stratospheric variability of wave activity and parameters in equatorial coastal and tropical sites during the West African monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafando, P.; Chane-Ming, F.; Petitdidier, M.

    2015-08-01

    Recent numerical studies in stratospheric dynamics and its variability as well as climate, have highlighted the need of more observational analyses to improve simulation of the West African monsoon (WAM). In this paper, activity and spectral characteristics of short-scale vertical waves (wavelengths <4 km) are analysed in equatorial coastal and tropical lower stratosphere during the WAM. A first detailed description of such waves over West Africa is derived from high-resolution vertical profiles of temperature and horizontal wind obtained during Intensive Observation Period of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) Campaign 2006. Monthly variation of wave energy density is revealed to trace the progression of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over West Africa. Mesoscale inertia gravity-waves structures with vertical and horizontal wavelengths of 1.5-2.5 and 400-1100 km respectively and intrinsic frequencies of 1.1-2.2 f or periods <2 days are observed in the tropical LS with intense activity during July and August when the WAM is installed over the tropical West Africa. Over equatorial region, gravity waves with intrinsic frequencies of 1.4-4 f or periods <5.2 days, vertical wavelength of 2.1 km and long horizontal wavelengths of 1300 km are intense during the WAM coastal phase. From July to October, gravity waves with intrinsic frequencies of 1.2-3.8 f or periods <6 days, vertical wavelength of 2.1 km and horizontal wavelengths of 1650 km are less intense during the WAM Sahelian phase of the WAM, March-June. Unlike potential energy density, kinetic energy density is observed to be a good proxy for the activity of short-scale vertical waves during the WAM because quasi-inertial waves are dominant. Long-term wave activity variation from January 2001 to December 2009, highlights strong year-to-year variation superimposed on convective activity and quasi-biennial oscillation-like variations especially above tropical stations.

  7. How well do land surface models reproduce the water and energy cycles in the West African monsoon system ? Evaluation over the Upper Ouémé basin, Benin (ALMIP2 project)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peugeot, C.; Boone, A. A.; Demarty, J.; manuela, G.; Laurent, K.; Cappelaere, B.; Awessou, B.; Cohard, J.; Galle, S.; Gascon, T.; Getirana, A.; Hector, B.; Mamadou, O.; Richard, A.; Seghieri, J.; Séguis, L.

    2013-12-01

    Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used in environmental and climate sciences to simulate matter (water, carbon) and energy exchanges between the continental surface and the atmosphere. They are also increasingly used in a wide range of applications such as impact studies on land use management or climate change. The AMMA project and the associated observation campaigns provided unique data-sets to drive land surface models and to evaluate their results over the West African region, where such high added-value information has been lacking. In the framework of the ALMIP2 project (AMMA Land surface Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 2), simulations from about 20 LSMs were done on three contrasted meso-scale domains in Mali, Niger and Benin, over the period 2005-2008 using the same forcing data sets at 0.05 degree and 30 minutes space-time resolution. This talk analyses the simulated water and energy budget components on the sub-humid upper Ouémé basin (10,000 km2, Benin site), where the high-quality rainfall and runoff datasets allow a detailed and original hydrological evaluation of these meso-scale simulations. As expected, the model inter-comparison shows large differences in the water and energy partitioning, either at the annual (see figure) or intra-seasonal time scale. Most of them do not reproduce the observed runoff, with annual biases ranging from -100% to 200 %. The multi-model mean Evapotranspiration (ET) correctly matches the observations, specially in the rainy season, with contrasted simulations of evaporation vs. transpiration from one model to the other. The identification of the more realistic water and energy partitioning is a key issue addressed by the ALMIP2 project. Previous studies performed in the AMMA framework on the Oueme basin highlighted the key role of below-ground water dynamics in the hydrological cycle (lateral transfer to rivers, groundwater seasonal recharge-discharge, ...). Moreover, field evidences suggested that

  8. Characterization of the impact of land degradation in the Sahel on the West African monsoon using an ensemble of climate models from the WAMME project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boone, A. A.; Xue, Y.; Ruth, C.; De Sales, F.; Hagos, S.; Mahanama, S. P. P.; Schiro, K.; Song, G.; Wang, G.; Koster, R. D.; Mechoso, C. R.

    2014-12-01

    There is increasing evidence from numerical studies that anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) can potentially induce significant variations on the regional scale climate. However, the magnitude of these variations likely depends on the local strength of the coupling between the surface and the atmosphere, the magnitude of the surface biophysical changes and how the key processes linking the surface with the atmosphere are parameterized within a particular model framework. One key hot-spot which has received considerable attention is the Sahelian region of West Africa, for which numerous studies have reported a significant increase in anthropogenic pressure on the already limited natural resources in this region, notably in terms of land use conversion and degradation. Thus, there is a pressing need to better understand the impacts of potential land degradation on the West African Monsoon (WAM) system. One of the main goals of the West African Monsoon Modeling andEvaluation project phase 2 (WAMMEII) is to provide basic understandingof LULCC on the regional climate over West Africa, and to evaluate thesensitivity of the seasonal variability of the WAM to LULCC. Theprescribed LULCC is based on recent 50 year period which represents amaximum feasible degradation scenario. In the current study, the LULCCis applied to five state of the art global climate models over afive-year period. The imposed LULCC results in a model-average 5-7%increase in surface albedo: the corresponding lower surface netradiation mainly results in a significant reduction in surfaceevaporation (upwards of 1 mm per day over a large part of the Sahel)which leads to less convective heating of the atmosphere, lowermoisture convergence, increased subsidence and reduced cloud coverover the LULCC zone. The overall impact can be characterized as asubstantial drought effect resulting in a reduction in annual rainfallof 20-40% in the Sahel and a southward shift of the monsoon. In

  9. The aerosol-monsoon climate system of Asia: A new paradigm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2016-02-01

    This commentary is based on a series of recent lectures on aerosol-monsoon interactions I gave at the Beijing Normal University in August 2015. A main theme of the lectures is on a new paradigm of "An Aerosol-Monsoon-Climate-System", which posits that aerosol, like rainfall, cloud, and wind, is an integral component of the monsoon climate system, influencing monsoon weather and climate on all timescales. Here, salient issues discussed in my lectures and my personal perspective regarding interactions between atmospheric dynamics and aerosols from both natural and anthropogenic sources are summarized. My hope is that under this new paradigm, we can break down traditional disciplinary barriers, advance a deeper understanding of weather and climate in monsoon regions, as well as entrain a new generation of geoscientists to strive for a sustainable future for one of the most complex and challenging human-natural climate sub-system of the earth.

  10. Transport pathways of peroxyacetyl nitrate in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from different monsoon systems during the summer monsoon season

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fadnavis, S.; Semeniuk, K.; Schultz, M. G.; Kiefer, M.; Mahajan, A.; Pozzoli, L.; Sonbawane, S.

    2015-06-01

    The Asian summer monsoon involves complex transport patterns with large scale redistribution of trace gases in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). We employ the global chemistry-climate model ECHAM5-HAMMOZ in order to evaluate the transport pathways and the contributions of nitrogen oxide species PAN, NOx, and HNO3 from various monsoon regions, to the UTLS over Southern Asia and vice versa. Simulated long term seasonal mean mixing ratios are compared with trace gas retrievals from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding aboard ENVISAT(MIPAS-E) and aircraft campaigns during the monsoon season (June-September) in order to evaluate the model's ability to reproduce these transport patterns. The model simulations show that there are three regions which contribute substantial pollution to the South Asian UTLS: the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), the North American Monsoon (NAM) and the West African monsoon (WAM). However, penetration due to ASM convection reaches deeper into the UTLS as compared to NAM and WAM outflow. The circulation in all three monsoon regions distributes PAN into the tropical latitude belt in the upper troposphere. Remote transport also occurs in the extratropical upper troposphere where westerly winds drive North American and European pollutants eastward where they can become part of the ASM convection and be lifted into the lower stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere the injected pollutants are transported westward by easterly winds. The intense convective activity in the monsoon regions is associated with lightning and thereby the formation of additional NOx. This also affects the distribution of PAN in the UTLS. According to sensitivity simulations with and without lightning, increase in concentrations of PAN (~ 40%), HNO3 (75%), NOx (70%) and ozone (30%) over the regions of convective transport, especially over equatorial Africa and America and comparatively less over the ASM. This indicates that PAN in the

  11. The middle Holocene climatic records from Arabia: Reassessing lacustrine environments, shift of ITCZ in Arabian Sea, and impacts of the southwest Indian and African monsoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enzel, Yehouda; Kushnir, Yochanan; Quade, Jay

    2015-06-01

    A dramatic increase in regional summer rainfall amount has been proposed for the Arabian Peninsula during the middle Holocene (ca. 9-5 ka BP) based on lacustrine sediments, inferred lake levels, speleothems, and pollen. This rainfall increase is considered primarily the result of an intensified Indian summer monsoon as part of the insolation-driven, northward shift of the boreal summer position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to over the deserts of North Africa, Arabia, and northwest India. We examine the basis for the proposed drastic climate change in Arabia and the shifts in the summer monsoon rains, by reviewing paleohydrologic lacustrine records from Arabia. We evaluate and reinterpret individual lake-basin status regarding their lacustrine-like deposits, physiography, shorelines, fauna and flora, and conclude that these basins were not occupied by lakes, but by shallow marsh environments. Rainfall increase required to support such restricted wetlands is much smaller than needed to form and maintain highly evaporating lakes and we suggest that rainfall changes occurred primarily at the elevated edges of southwestern, southern, and southeastern Arabian Peninsula. These relatively small changes in rainfall amounts and local are also supported by pollen and speleothems from the region. The changes do not require a northward shift of the Northern Hemisphere summer ITCZ and intensification of the Indian monsoon rainfall. We propose that (a) latitudinal and slight inland expansion of the North African summer monsoon rains across the Red Sea, and (b) uplifted moist air of this monsoon to southwestern Arabia highlands, rather than rains associated with intensification of Indian summer monsoon, as proposed before, increased rains in that region; these African monsoon rains produced the modest paleo-wetlands in downstream hyperarid basins. Furthermore, we postulate that as in present-day, the ITCZ in the Indian Ocean remained at or near the equator all

  12. Assessment of CMIP5 Model Simulation of the North American Monsoon System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geil, K. L.; Serra, Y.

    2012-12-01

    The ability of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to simulate the North American Monsoon System (NAMS) over the historical period of 1979-2005 is examined using a core NAMS domain centered on the Sierra Madre Occidental in northern Mexico. Root mean square error, bias, and phase lag are used to assess the amplitude and phasing of the annual cycle of precipitation at monthly time resolution and results show some improvement over the CMIP3 suite of models. A more detailed evaluation of monsoon season phasing uses daily precipitation magnitude and duration threshold criteria to define yearly monsoon onset and retreat dates for each model. Results reveal that monsoon onset is generally well-captured, while monsoon retreat is poorly captured, as most models produce excessive fall and winter precipitation causing a muddled transition from the monsoon to post-monsoon season in the daily precipitation field. Large-scale field composites of models with the best and worst simulations of onset and retreat provide insight as to the causes of well-simulated onset and poorly-simulated retreat. Model simulation of the NAMS in the future is briefly discussed with an emphasis on the cautious use of models for monsoon projections.

  13. The Impact of the Atlantic Cold Tongue on West African Monsoon Onset in Regional Model Simulations for 1998-2002

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew B.

    2014-01-01

    The Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) develops during spring and early summer near the Equator in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The hypothesis that the ACT accelerates the timing of West African monsoon (WAM) onset is tested by comparing two regional climate model (RM3) simulation ensembles. Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) that include the ACT are used to force a control ensemble. An idealized, warm SST perturbation is designed to represent lower boundary forcing without the ACT for the experiment ensemble. Summer simulations forced by observed SST and reanalysis boundary conditions for each of five consecutive years are compared to five parallel runs forced by SST with the warm perturbation. The article summarizes the sequence of events leading to the onset of the WAM in the Sahel region. The representation of WAM onset in RM3 simulations is examined and compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and reanalysis data. The study evaluates the sensitivity of WAM onset indicators to the presence of the ACT by analysing the differences between the two simulation ensembles. Results show that the timing of major rainfall events and therefore theWAM onset in the Sahel are not sensitive to the presence of the ACT. However, the warm SST perturbation does increase downstream rainfall rates over West Africa as a consequence of enhanced specific humidity and enhanced northward moisture flux in the lower troposphere.

  14. Tipping Elements in Earth Systems Special Feature: Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Held, Hermann

    2009-12-01

    Monsoon systems influence the livelihood of hundreds of millions of people. During the Holocene and last glacial period, rainfall in India and China has undergone strong and abrupt changes. Though details of monsoon circulations are complicated, observations reveal a defining moisture-advection feedback that dominates the seasonal heat balance and might act as an internal amplifier, leading to abrupt changes in response to relatively weak external perturbations. Here we present a minimal conceptual model capturing this positive feedback. The basic equations, motivated by observed relations, yield a threshold behavior, robust with respect to addition of other physical processes. Below this threshold in net radiative influx, R c, no conventional monsoon can develop; above R c, two stable regimes exist. We identify a nondimensional parameter l that defines the threshold and makes monsoon systems comparable with respect to the character of their abrupt transition. This dynamic similitude may be helpful in understanding past and future variations in monsoon circulation. Within the restrictions of the model, we compute R c for current monsoon systems in India, China, the Bay of Bengal, West Africa, North America, and Australia, where moisture advection is the main driver of the circulation.

  15. Transport pathways of peroxyacetyl nitrate in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from different monsoon systems during the summer monsoon season

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fadnavis, S.; Semeniuk, K.; Schultz, M. G.; Kiefer, M.; Mahajan, A.; Pozzoli, L.; Sonbawane, S.

    2015-10-01

    The Asian summer monsoon involves complex transport patterns with large-scale redistribution of trace gases in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). We employ the global chemistry-climate model ECHAM5-HAMMOZ in order to evaluate the transport pathways and the contributions of nitrogen oxide species peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), NOx and HNO3 from various monsoon regions, to the UTLS over southern Asia and vice versa. Simulated long-term seasonal mean mixing ratios are compared with trace gas retrievals from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding aboard ENVISAT(MIPAS-E) and aircraft campaigns during the monsoon season (June-September) in order to evaluate the model's ability to reproduce these transport patterns. The model simulations show that there are three regions which contribute substantial pollution to the South Asian UTLS: the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), the North American monsoon (NAM) and the West African monsoon (WAM). However, penetration due to ASM convection reaches deeper into the UTLS compared to NAM and WAM outflow. The circulation in all three monsoon regions distributes PAN into the tropical latitude belt in the upper troposphere (UT). Remote transport also occurs in the extratropical UT where westerly winds drive North American and European pollutants eastward where they can become part of the ASM convection and lifted into the lower stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere the injected pollutants are transported westward by easterly winds. Sensitivity experiments with ECHAM5-HAMMOZ for simultaneous NOx and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emission change (-10 %) over ASM, NAM and WAM confirm similar transport. Our analysis shows that a 10 % change in Asian emissions transports ~ 5-30 ppt of PAN in the UTLS over Asia, ~ 1-10 ppt of PAN in the UTLS of northern subtropics and mid-latitudes, ~ 7-10 ppt of HNO3 and ~ 1-2 ppb of ozone in UT over Asia. Comparison of emission change over Asia, North

  16. Propagation of Mesoscale Convective Systems over India in the Boreal Summer Monsoon Season

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phadtare, J. A.; Bhat, G. S.

    2015-12-01

    With an automated cloud tracking algorithm, we have analysed the propagation of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over Indian region in the boreal summer monsoon season (June-September). We used half hourly infrared images of a geostationary satellite KALPANA-I for the study. The data covers four monsoon seasons (2010,12,13,and 14). Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the Indian land show a prominent westward propagation, which is opposite to the lower tropospheric monsoonal westerlies. The mechanism associated with these propagations seems robust, i.e. it appears in all the events. The propagation seems to be a result of internal dynamics of MCS, and not forced by any external agent. The mechanism is prevalent through out the monsoon season, but absent in pre- and post-monsoon season. The zonal convective streaks associated with the large MCSs have a spatial and temporal scales of 1000 km and 1 day respectively, with a westward speed of 18 m/s. These streaks resemble the westward propagating inertial-gravity (WIG) type of wave propagation. Thus, we speculate that, the MCSs over India in the summer monsoon season trigger WIG waves. And the subsequent propagation of MCS is coupled to this wave signal. Most of the large MCSs are associated with the synoptic scale monsoon depressions. Mean propagation of MCSs over Bay of Bengal (BoB) is of more complex nature. There seems to be more than one propagation mechanism which are active over BoB in the summer monsoon season. The selection of propagation mechanism by the BoB MCSs might depend on the phase of diurnal cycle or intra-seasonal oscillation, MCS size, and its location over the bay.

  17. African monsoon variations and persistence of the Megalake Chad during the late Pliocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Contoux, Camille; Ramstein, Gilles; Jost, Anne; Sepulchre, Pierre; Schuster, Mathieu; Braconnot, Pascale

    2013-04-01

    Megalake Chad (MLC) occurrences are widely documented for the mid-Holocene period but also for the Mio-Pliocene (Schuster et al., 2009). From 7 to 3 Ma, analysis of sedimentary deposits of the Djurab desert region show desertic to full-lacustrine facies, suggesting an alternance of dry to wet climates (Schuster, 2002, Schuster et al., 2009), lacustrine conditions being associated to fauna dispersal and early hominid presence (e.g. Brunet et al., 1995, 2002). Some studies (e.g. Braconnot and Marti, 2003) suggest a control of precession on monsoon. Using late Pliocene climate simulations and different orbital configurations, can we constrain variations of the Megalake and reach the water volume of 350 000 km² proposed by several authors (Ghienne et al., 2002; Leblanc et al., 2006)? Can we propose a timing for the MLC occurrences? First, in order to better characterize the precession role on Megalake Chad occurrences during the late Pliocene, we use the IPSLCM5A coupled ocean atmosphere climate model forced with four different orbital configurations and mid-Pliocene boundary conditions. The four orbital configurations, all around 3 Ma, correspond to maximum and minimum insolations at 30°N at summer solstice or autumn equinox. We find important increases of precipitation in North Africa, controlled by insolation maxima at 30°N at summer solstice and autumn equinox, i.e. related to an angular precession between 270° and 10°. When used to force a surface routing model (HYDRA, Coe, 2000), these precipitation increases lead to MLC episodes, suggesting the MLC could be sustained during at least 5 kyr of a precession cycle. However, this method does not account for the lake feedback on climate. Indeed, during wet phases, the MLC becomes an important evaporation source, modifying the climate of the Chad basin. To investigate this aspect, we use the LMDZ4 atmospheric model including an open water surface module (Krinner, 2003). We find that deep convection is suppressed

  18. The representation of low-level clouds during the West African monsoon in weather and climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kniffka, Anke; Hannak, Lisa; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    The West African monsoon is one of the most important large-scale circulation features in the tropics and the associated seasonal rainfalls are crucial to rain-fed agriculture and water resources for hundreds of millions of people. However, numerical weather and climate models still struggle to realistically represent salient features of the monsoon across a wide range of scales. Recently it has been shown that substantial errors in radiation and clouds exist in the southern parts of West Africa (8°W-8°E, 5-10°N) during summer. This area is characterised by strong low-level jets associated with the formation of extensive ultra-low stratus clouds. Often persisting long after sunrise, these clouds have a substantial impact on the radiation budget at the surface and thus the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here we present some first results from a detailed analysis of the representation of these clouds and the associated PBL features across a range of weather and climate models. Recent climate model simulations for the period 1991-2010 run in the framework of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) offer a great opportunity for this analysis. The models are those used for the latest Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but for YOTC the model output has a much better temporal resolution, allowing to resolve the diurnal cycle, and includes diabatic terms, allowing to much better assess physical reasons for errors in low-level temperature, moisture and thus cloudiness. These more statistical climate model analyses are complemented by experiments using ICON (Icosahedral non-hydrostatic general circulation model), the new numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. ICON allows testing sensitivities to model resolution and numerical schemes. These model simulations are validated against (re-)analysis data, satellite observations (e.g. CM SAF cloud and

  19. Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Borah, N.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Joseph, S.; Sharmila, S.; De, S.; Goswami, B. N.; Kumar, Arun

    2014-05-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  20. Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borah, N.; Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Joseph, S.; Sharmila, S.; de, S.; Goswami, B.; Kumar, A.

    2013-12-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  1. Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borah, Nabanita; Sukumarpillai, Abhilash; Sahai, Atul Kumar; Chattopadhyay, Rajib; Joseph, Susmitha; De, Soumyendu; Nath Goswami, Bhupendra; Kumar, Arun

    2014-05-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  2. Entropy analysis of stable isotopes in precipitation: tracing the monsoon systems in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Tao; Chen, Jiansheng; Li, Ling

    2016-08-01

    Due to the complexity of monsoon systems and random behaviors of isotope tracers, conventional methods are not adequate for uncovering detailed information about monsoon activities from typically limited precipitation isotope data. We developed a new approach based on the entropy theory to analyze such data with a focus on the monsoon systems in China, dealing with the complexity of these systems and data deficiency. Using precipitation isotope data from 42 selected stations in and around China within the GNIP network, we computed entropies associated with D and 18O. These entropies were found to relate linearly to each other with a proportionality factor close to unity. The spatial variations of the D and 18O entropy in the study area revealed the origins, extents and pathways of the Chinese monsoon systems, as well as their interactions. While further investigation is needed at a greater (global) scale, this study has demonstrated how the entropy theory enables an in-depth analysis of precipitation isotope data to trace the pathway and determine the range of a monsoon system.

  3. Entropy analysis of stable isotopes in precipitation: tracing the monsoon systems in China

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Tao; Chen, Jiansheng; Li, Ling

    2016-01-01

    Due to the complexity of monsoon systems and random behaviors of isotope tracers, conventional methods are not adequate for uncovering detailed information about monsoon activities from typically limited precipitation isotope data. We developed a new approach based on the entropy theory to analyze such data with a focus on the monsoon systems in China, dealing with the complexity of these systems and data deficiency. Using precipitation isotope data from 42 selected stations in and around China within the GNIP network, we computed entropies associated with D and 18O. These entropies were found to relate linearly to each other with a proportionality factor close to unity. The spatial variations of the D and 18O entropy in the study area revealed the origins, extents and pathways of the Chinese monsoon systems, as well as their interactions. While further investigation is needed at a greater (global) scale, this study has demonstrated how the entropy theory enables an in-depth analysis of precipitation isotope data to trace the pathway and determine the range of a monsoon system. PMID:27507656

  4. Entropy analysis of stable isotopes in precipitation: tracing the monsoon systems in China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tao; Chen, Jiansheng; Li, Ling

    2016-01-01

    Due to the complexity of monsoon systems and random behaviors of isotope tracers, conventional methods are not adequate for uncovering detailed information about monsoon activities from typically limited precipitation isotope data. We developed a new approach based on the entropy theory to analyze such data with a focus on the monsoon systems in China, dealing with the complexity of these systems and data deficiency. Using precipitation isotope data from 42 selected stations in and around China within the GNIP network, we computed entropies associated with D and (18)O. These entropies were found to relate linearly to each other with a proportionality factor close to unity. The spatial variations of the D and (18)O entropy in the study area revealed the origins, extents and pathways of the Chinese monsoon systems, as well as their interactions. While further investigation is needed at a greater (global) scale, this study has demonstrated how the entropy theory enables an in-depth analysis of precipitation isotope data to trace the pathway and determine the range of a monsoon system. PMID:27507656

  5. Entropy analysis of stable isotopes in precipitation: tracing the monsoon systems in China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tao; Chen, Jiansheng; Li, Ling

    2016-08-10

    Due to the complexity of monsoon systems and random behaviors of isotope tracers, conventional methods are not adequate for uncovering detailed information about monsoon activities from typically limited precipitation isotope data. We developed a new approach based on the entropy theory to analyze such data with a focus on the monsoon systems in China, dealing with the complexity of these systems and data deficiency. Using precipitation isotope data from 42 selected stations in and around China within the GNIP network, we computed entropies associated with D and (18)O. These entropies were found to relate linearly to each other with a proportionality factor close to unity. The spatial variations of the D and (18)O entropy in the study area revealed the origins, extents and pathways of the Chinese monsoon systems, as well as their interactions. While further investigation is needed at a greater (global) scale, this study has demonstrated how the entropy theory enables an in-depth analysis of precipitation isotope data to trace the pathway and determine the range of a monsoon system.

  6. Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation on the summer West African monsoon in AMIP simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niang, Coumba; Mohino, Elsa; Gaye, Amadou T.; Omotosho, J. Bayo

    2016-06-01

    At intraseasonal timescales, convection over West Africa is modulated by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). In this work we investigate the simulation of such relationship by 11 state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation models runs with prescribed observed sea surface temperatures. In general, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations show good skill in capturing the main characteristics of the summer MJO as well as its influence on convection and rainfall over West Africa. Most models simulate an eastward spatiotemporal propagation of enhanced and suppressed convection similar to the observed MJO, although their signal over West Africa is weaker in some models. In addition, the ensemble average of models' composites gives a better performance in reproducing the main features and timing of the MJO and its impact over West Africa. The influence on rainfall is well captured in both Sahel and Guinea regions thereby adequately producing the transition between positive and negative rainfall anomalies through the different phases as in the observations. Furthermore, the results show that a strong active convection phase is clearly associated with a stronger African Easterly Jet (AEJ) but the weak convective phase is associated with a much weaker AEJ. Our analysis of the equatorial waves suggests that the main impact over West Africa is established by the propagation of low-frequency waves within the MJO and Rossby spectral peaks. Results from the simulations confirm that it may be possible to predict anomalous convection over West Africa with a time lead of 15-20 day.

  7. An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

    2016-06-01

    We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

  8. Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

    SciTech Connect

    Annamalai, H.

    2014-09-15

    The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observations and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical

  9. A comparison of regional monsoon variability using monsoon indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Wu, Zhiwei

    2014-09-01

    The present study aims to (a) examine meteorological basis for construction of regional monsoon indices and (b) explore the commonality and differences among tropical regional monsoons, especially the teleconnection and monsoon-ENSO relationship. We show that the area-averaged summer precipitation intensity is generally a meaningful precipitation index for tropical monsoons because it represents very well both the amplitude of annual cycle and the leading mode of year-to-year rainfall variability with a nearly uniform spatial pattern. The regional monsoon circulation indices can be defined in a unified way (measuring monsoon trough vorticity) for seven tropical monsoon regions, viz.: Indian, Australian, western North Pacific, North and South American, and Northern and Southern African monsoons. The structures of the tropical monsoons are commonly characterized by a pair of upper-level double anticyclones residing in the subtropics of both hemispheres; notably the winter hemispheric anticyclone has a barotropic structure and is a passive response. Two types of upper-level teleconnection patterns are identified. One is a zonal wave train emanating from the double anticyclones downstream along the westerly jets in both hemispheres, including Indian, Northern African and Australian monsoons; the other is a meridional wave train emanating from the double anticyclones polewards, such as the South American and western North Pacific monsoons. Over the past 55 years all regional summer monsoons have non-stationary relationship with ENSO except the Australian monsoon. The regional monsoon-ENSO relationship is found to have common changing points in 1970s. The relationships were enhanced for the western North Pacific, Northern African, North American and South American summer monsoons, but weakened for the Indian summer monsoon (with a recovery in late 1990s). Regardless the large regional differences, the monsoon precipitations over land areas of all tropical monsoon regions

  10. Interactions between Oceanic Saharan Air Layer and African Easterly Jet- African Easterly Waves System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseinpour, F.; Wilcox, E. M.

    2013-12-01

    Aerosols have robust influences on multi-scale climatic systems and variability. Non-linear aerosol-cloud-climate interactions depend on many parameters such as aerosol features, regional atmospheric dynamics and variability. Although there are remarkable modeling studies indicating that aerosols induce robust modifications in cloud properties, circulations and the hydrological cycle, many of the physical and dynamical processes involving in these complex interactions between aerosols and Earth's system are still poorly understood. Better understanding the contribution of aerosols with atmospheric phenomena and their transient changes are crucial for efforts to evaluate climate predictions by next generation climate models. This study provides strong evidence of mechanistic relationships between perturbations of the oceanic Saharan air layer (OSAL) and anomalies of atmospheric circulations over the eastern tropical Atlantic/Africa. These relationships are characterized using an ensemble of daily datasets including the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS), and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWIFS) for the boreal summer season. The study is motivated by previous results suggesting that oceanic dust-induced large-scale to meso-scale climatic adjustments. Our hypothesis is that perturbations in OSAL significantly interact with regional climate variability through African Easterly Jet- African Easterly Waves (AEJ-AEW) system. Passive/ active phases of AEWs in the northern and southern-track wave packets are associated with dipole patterns of thermal/dynamical anomalies correlated with perturbations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in OSAL. Enhanced (suppressed) dust AOD in OSAL are significantly correlated with convective re-circulation within subsidence region of Hadley cell as well as robust mid-level dipole vorticity disturbances downstream of the AEJ core

  11. Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Ronghui; Chen, Jilong; Wang, Lin; Lin, Zhongda

    2012-09-01

    Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects: the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the "Silk Road" teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.

  12. Effects of Extreme Monsoon Precipitation on River Systems Form And Function, an Early Eocene Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plink-Bjorklund, P.; Birgenheier, L.

    2013-12-01

    Here we document effects of extreme monsoon precipitation on river systems with mountainous drainage basin. We discuss the effects of individual extreme monsoon seasons, as well as long-term changes in Earth surface system's form and function. The dataset spans across 1000 m of stratigraphy across ca 200 km of Paleocene and Early Eocene river deposits. The excessive 3-dimensional outcrops, combined with our new Carbon isotope, ichnological and paleosols record allow reconstruction of long-term river system's evolution during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) ca 56 million years ago, the transient global warming events during Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO) ca 53 to 51.5 million years ago, as well as the effects of highly peaked precipitation events during single monsoon seasons. On the single season scale, the increase in precipitation peakedness causes high discharge flooding events that remove large quantities of sediment from the drainage basin, due to stream erosion and landslide initiation. The initiation of landslides is especially significant, as the drainage basin is of high gradient, the monsoon intensification is accompanied by significant vegetation decline, as the monsoon cycle changes to multi-year droughts interrupted by extreme monsoon precipitation. These large discharge floods laden with sediment cause rapid deposition from high-velocity currents that resemble megaflood deposits in that they are dominated by high-velocity and high deposition rate sedimentary structures and thick simple depositional packages (unit bars). Such high deposition rates cause locally rapid channel bed aggradation and thus increase frequency of channel avulsions and cause catastrophic high-discharge terrestrial flooding events across the river basin. On long time scales, fluvial megafan systems, similar to those, e.g. in the Himalayan foreland, developed across the ca 200 km wide river basin, causing significant sediment aggradation and a landscape with high

  13. Climate response of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Ganguly, Dilip; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2012-07-13

    The equilibrium climate response to the total effects (direct, indirect and semi-direct effects) of aerosols arising from anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions on the South Asian summer monsoon system is studied using a coupled atmosphere-slab ocean model. Our results suggest that anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosols generally induce a reduction in mean summer monsoon precipitation over most parts of the Indian subcontinent, strongest along the western coastline of the Indian peninsula and eastern Nepal region, but modest increases also occur over the north western part of the subcontinent. While most of the noted reduction in precipitation is triggered by increased emissions of aerosols from anthropogenic activities, modest increases in the north west are mostly associated with decreases in local emissions of aerosols from forest fire and grass fire sources. Anthropogenic aerosols from outside Asia also contribute to the overall reduction in precipitation but the dominant contribution comes from aerosol sources within Asia. Local emissions play a more important role in the total rainfall response to anthropogenic aerosol sources during the early monsoon period, whereas both local as well as remote emissions of aerosols play almost equally important roles during the later part of the monsoon period. While precipitation responses are primarily driven by local aerosol forcing, regional surface temperature changes over the region are strongly influenced by anthropogenic aerosols from sources further away (non-local changes). Changes in local anthropogenic organic and black carbon emissions by as much as a factor of two (preserving their ratio) produce the same basic signatures in the model's summer monsoon temperature and precipitation responses.

  14. Impact of the Desert Dust on the Summer Monsoon System over Southwestern North America

    SciTech Connect

    Zhao, Chun; Liu, Xiaohong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2012-04-24

    The radiative forcing of dust emitted from the Southwest United States (US) deserts and its impact on monsoon circulation and precipitation over the North America monsoon (NAM) region are simulated using a coupled meteorology and aerosol/chemistry model (WRF-Chem) for 15 years (1995-2009). During the monsoon season, dust has a cooling effect (-0.90 W m{sup -2}) at the surface, a warming effect (0.40 W m{sup -2}) in the atmosphere, and a negative top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) forcing (-0.50 W m{sup -2}) over the deserts on 24-h average. Most of the dust emitted from the deserts concentrates below 800 hPa and accumulates over the western slope of the Rocky Mountains and Mexican Plateau. The absorption of shortwave radiation by dust heats the lower atmosphere by up to 0.5 K day{sup -1} over the western slope of the Mountains. Model sensitivity simulations with and without dust for 15 summers (June-July-August) show that dust heating of the lower atmosphere over the deserts strengthens the low-level southerly moisture fluxes on both sides of the Sierra Madre Occidental. It also results in an eastward migration of NAM-driven moisture convergence over the western slope of the Mountains. These monsoonal circulation changes lead to a statistically significant increase of precipitation by up to {approx}40% over the eastern slope of the Mountains (Arizona-New Mexico-Texas regions). This study highlights the interaction between dust and the NAM system and motivates further investigation of possible dust feedback on monsoon precipitation under climate change and the megadrought conditions projected for the future.

  15. Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El Niño and the West African monsoon.

    PubMed

    Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Woodruff, Jonathan D

    2007-05-24

    The processes that control the formation, intensity and track of hurricanes are poorly understood. It has been proposed that an increase in sea surface temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change has led to an increase in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones, but this proposal has been challenged on the basis that the instrumental record is too short and unreliable to reveal trends in intense tropical cyclone activity. Storm-induced deposits preserved in the sediments of coastal lagoons offer the opportunity to study the links between climatic conditions and hurricane activity on longer timescales, because they provide centennial- to millennial-scale records of past hurricane landfalls. Here we present a record of intense hurricane activity in the western North Atlantic Ocean over the past 5,000 years based on sediment cores from a Caribbean lagoon that contain coarse-grained deposits associated with intense hurricane landfalls. The record indicates that the frequency of intense hurricane landfalls has varied on centennial to millennial scales over this interval. Comparison of the sediment record with palaeo-climate records indicates that this variability was probably modulated by atmospheric dynamics associated with variations in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the strength of the West African monsoon, and suggests that sea surface temperatures as high as at present are not necessary to support intervals of frequent intense hurricanes. To accurately predict changes in intense hurricane activity, it is therefore important to understand how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the West African monsoon will respond to future climate change.

  16. A High-Resolution Late Holocene Record of Rainfall From Lake Edward, Equatorial Africa: Linkages Between the African and Indian Monsoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russell, J. M.; Johnson, T. C.

    2005-12-01

    High-resolution analyses of the chemical composition of calcite and the biogenic silica content of sediments from piston cores spanning the past 3,500 years from Lake Edward, Uganda-Congo, document multidecadal to millennial-scale climate variability in the heart of equatorial Africa. Major drought events in the Lake Edward record occur at about 500, 850, 1500, ~2000, and 2700 cal yr BP, in addition to numerous other events of lesser magnitude/duration. Comparison of our record to other Holocene records of African lake levels suggests that most of these intervals of drought affected most of equatorial East Africa. However, wet conditions at about 500 cal yrs BP at sites to the east of Lake Edward could indicate spatial heterogeneity within the African continent during the "Little Ice Age", which could have resulted from complex interactions between the African (Atlantic) and Indian Ocean monsoons. Spectral analysis of our drought record, sampled at a 3-year step, shows evidence for numerous multidecadal to century-scale drought periods in the region. The periodicities observed do not appear linked to solar forcing; rather, periods of ~125, ~70, ~28, and ~18 years apparent in our record as well as other records from the Indian Ocean basin may arise from climate variability internal to the tropical oceans, in particular the Indo-Pacific. Lastly, the Lake Edward record suggests that the climate of equatorial Africa has been unusually stable and generally wet for the past ca. 100 years. This stability appears unusual in light of the considerable climate variability suggested by our record for the past several millennia, a finding with clear implications for East African societies.

  17. Local impacts of Saharan dust on convection and on the monsoon circulation during the pre-onset and the established monsoon periods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavaysse, C.; Flamant, C.; Grabowski, W. W.; Chaboureau, J.

    2012-12-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the local impacts of dust on the West African monsoon circulation. Using different regional models (Meso-NH and WRF), dust schemes have been used to quantify the impacts of dust on convection and on the main components of the West African monsoon, such as the West African Heat Low (WAHL), African Easterly Waves (AEWs), monsoon and Harmatan winds. Two different periods have been simulated, one in 2006, during the AMMA campaign, investigated a 6-day pulsation of the West African heat low (WAHL) in summertime (14 to 20 July), with convective rainfall and dust bursts being observed over the Sahel at the beginning and end of the episode. Three Meso-NH simulations were designed which differed in their dust representation. This study highlights two effects of dust on the WAHL over the Sahara: a so-called direct effect associated with dust radiative heating, which increases the WAHL thickness, and a so called indirect effect that intensifies both the African easterly jet and a related African easterly wave. Using the observation provided by the FENNEC international project in June 2011, a second study has been done to better understand the local impacts of the dust during the pre-onset period, when the dust load in the mid-troposphere appears large. Using WRF simulations in an ensemble system, the sensitivity of the monsoon circulation to direct and indirect effects of the dust have been compared to the sensitivity of the large-scale forcings.

  18. The ICTP Regional System Model (RESM) to simulate the monsoon in the South Asia CORDEX domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Sante, Fabio; Coppola, Erika; Farneti, Riccardo; Giorgi, Filippo

    2016-04-01

    South Asian climate is characterized mainly by the wet and dry dipole that divides the annual cycle in two seasons: the monsoon season and the dry season. The life and the economy of those regions is very much influenced by the climate variability and the monsoon variability therefore is crucial to understand the physical mechanism associated with them. The spatial and temporal representation of the monsoons over the South Asian region is one of the main challenge of global and regional climate models principally because they fail to represent the SST (sea surface temperature) induced rainfall when forced with observed SST resulting in a poor representation of the monsoon cycle (Fu et al. 2002). The coupling with the ocean is essential to be able to simulate the correct air-sea interaction; the results are in general much improved and the monsoon patterns and the time representation (like the onset for example) are closer to the observations (Fu et al. 2002; Fu et al. 2007; Ratnam et Al. 2008; Seo et Al. 2009). Here we present a Regional Earth System Model (RESM) composed by a regional climate model RegCM4 (Giorgi et al, 2012) coupled with the regional oceanic model MITgcm (Marshall et al, 1997) and two hydrological model: ChyM (Cetemps Hydrological Model, Coppola et al, 2007) and HD model (Max-Planck's HD model; Hagemann and Dümenil, 1998). We simulate the Southern Asian Climate taking into account the whole hydrological cycle. Wind stress, water fluxes and heat fluxes are exchanged from the atmosphere to the ocean, SST are exchanged from ocean to the atmosphere and in order to conserve mass, the river discharge is calculated from the Hydrological model and sent to the ocean. The main goal of this work is to evaluate the impacts of local air-sea interaction in the simulation of the interannual variability, over the Indian CORDEX (Giorgi et al, 2009) domain through regionally ocean-atmosphere-river coupled and uncoupled simulations, with a focus on monsoon season

  19. Inter-annual Variability of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems in Reanalysis and Climate model Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Praveen, V.; Sandeep, S.; Ravindran, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    Monsoon Low Pressure Systems (LPS) play an important role in the Indian summer monsoon by bringing rainfall to the interior parts of Indian subcontinent. The detection and tracking of this weakly structured north north-west propagating system in reanalysis products and climate model simulations are challenging compared to the tropical and extra tropical cyclones. A robust method to objectively identify and track the LPS, which mimics the conventional LPS tracking technique, is presented. The algorithm showed its robustness in detecting and tracking LPS in ERA and MERRA reanalysis products. The algorithm fairly well captured inter-annual variability in ERA/MERRA LPSs against observations from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). An analysis of the LPS in historical CMPI5 model simulation reveal, the models' skill in simulating a realistic mean monsoon precipitation and its relation to the LPS activity. Further, this inter-model variability in the LPS is found to be linked to the mid-tropospheric stability over the Bay of Bengal region.

  20. Cloud properties during active and break spells of the West African summer monsoon from CloudSat-CALIPSO measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Efon, E.; Lenouo, A.; Monkam, D.; Manatsa, D.

    2016-07-01

    High resolution of daily rainfall dataset from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) was used to identify active and break cloud formation periods. The clouds were characterized based on CloudSat-CALIPSO satellite images over West Africa during the summer monsoon during the period 2006-2010. The active and break periods are defined as the periods during the peak monsoon months of June to August when the normalized anomaly of rainfall over the monsoon core zone is greater than 0.9 or less than -0.9 respectively, provided the criteria is satisfied for at least three consecutive days. It is found that about 90% of the break period and 66.7% of the active spells lasted 3-4 days. Active spells lasting duration of about a week were observed while no break spell had such a long span. Cloud macrophysical (cloud base height (CBH), cloud top height (CTH) and cloud geometric depth (∆H), microphysical (cloud liquid water content, (LWC), liquid number concentration (LNC), liquid effective radius, ice water content (IWC), ice number concentration (INC) and ice effective radius) and radiative (heating rate properties) over South Central West Africa (5-15°N; 15°W-10°E) during the active and break spells were also analyzed. High-level clouds are more predominant during the break periods compared to the active periods. Active spells have lower INC compared to the break spells. Liquid water clouds are observed to have more radiative forcing during the active than break periods while ice phase clouds bring more cooling effect during the break spells compared to the active spells.

  1. On the Origin of Monsoon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    It is a long-held fundamental belief that the basic cause of a monsoon is land-sea thermal contrast on the continental scale. Through general circulation model experiments we demonstrate that this belief should be changed. The Asian and Australian summer monsoon circulations are largely intact in an experiment in which Asia, maritime continent, and Australia are replaced by ocean. It is also shown that the change resulting from such replacement is in general due more to the removal of topography than to the removal of land-sea contrast. Therefore, land-sea contrast plays only a minor modifying role in Asian and Australian summer monsoons. This also happens to the Central American summer monsoon. However, the same thing cannot be said of the African and South American summer monsoons. In Asian and Australian winter monsoons land-sea contrast also plays only a minor role. Our interpretation for the origin of monsoon is that the summer monsoon is the result of ITCZ's (intertropical convergence zones) peak being substantially (more than 10 degrees) away from the equator. The origin of the ITCZ has been previously interpreted by Chao. The circulation around thus located ITCZ, previously interpreted by Chao and Chen through the modified Gill solution and briefly described in this paper, explains the monsoon circulation. The longitudinal location of the ITCZs is determined by the distribution of surface conditions. ITCZ's favor locations of higher SST as in western Pacific and Indian Ocean, or tropical landmass, due to land-sea contrast, as in tropical Africa and South America. Thus, the role of landmass in the origin of monsoon can be replaced by ocean of sufficiently high SST. Furthermore, the ITCZ circulation extends into the tropics in the other hemisphere to give rise to the winter monsoon circulation there. Also through the equivalence of land-sea contrast and higher SST, it is argued that the basic monsoon onset mechanism proposed by Chao is valid for all monsoons.

  2. A pan-African Flood Forecasting System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiemig, V.; Bisselink, B.; Pappenberger, F.; Thielen, J.

    2014-05-01

    The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions of the ECMWF and critical hydrological thresholds. In this paper the predictive capability is investigated in a hindcast mode, by reproducing hydrological predictions for the year 2003 where important floods were observed. Results were verified with ground measurements of 36 subcatchments as well as with reports of various flood archives. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70% of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (>1 week) and large affected areas (>10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. The case study for "Save flooding" illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a large potential as an operational pan-African flood forecasting system, although issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

  3. Impact of surface meteorological observations on RAMS forecast of monsoon weather systems over the Indian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukhopadhyay, P.; Sanjay, J.; Cotton, W. R.; Singh, S. S.

    2005-09-01

    An attempt has been made to study the impact of surface meteorological observations on the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) simulation of a monsoon depression and two low pressure systems. The surface observations are blended with the GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment (GAME) gridded analyses for these cases. In one set of experiments the model is run in 12 hour nudging mode initially and then in forecast mode using GAME gridded data without incorporating surface observations. In another set of experiments surface data are incorporated to enhance the signature of the systems in the large scale GAME analyses and nudging is applied initially for twelve hours. Subsequently the model is run in forecast mode to see the temporal and spatial evolution of different meteorological features associated with the systems. It is found that inclusion of the surface data has in general enhanced the signature of the systems in the analysis and subsequently shows improvement in the forecast of sea-level pressure, geopotential, wind field, etc. and the associated forecast of heavy rainfall, in particular. To make a quantitative comparison of the predicted rainfall with the observed one, equitable threat score and bias are calculated for different threshold values of rainfall. It is clearly noted that inclusion of surface data has improved the precipitation forecast over the Indian land mass as indicated by the equitable threat score and bias for all the threshold rainfall categories.

  4. An assessment of improvements in global monsoon precipitation simulation in FGOALS-s2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Lixia; Zhou, Tianjun

    2014-01-01

    The performance of Version 2 of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS-s2) in simulating global monsoon precipitation (GMP) was evaluated. Compared with FGOALS-s1, higher skill in simulating the annual modes of climatological tropical precipitation and interannual variations of GMP are seen in FGOALS-s2. The simulated domains of the northwestern Pacific monsoon (NWPM) and North American monsoon are smaller than in FGOALS-s1. The main deficiency of FGOALS-s2 is that the NWPM has a weaker monsoon mode and stronger negative pattern in spring-fall asymmetric mode. The smaller NWPM domain in FGOALS-s2 is due to its simulated colder SST over the western Pacific warm pool. The relationship between ENSO and GMP is simulated reasonably by FGOALS-s2. However, the simulated precipitation anomaly over the South African monsoon region-South Indian Ocean during La Niña years is opposite to the observation. This results mainly from weaker warm SST anomaly over the maritime continent during La Niña years, leading to stronger upper-troposphere (lower-troposphere) divergence (convergence) over the Indian Ocean, and artificial vertical ascent (descent) over the Southwest Indian Ocean (South African monsoon region), inducing local excessive (deficient) rainfall. Comparison between the historical and pre-industrial simulations indicated that global land monsoon precipitation changes from 1901 to the 1970s were caused by internal variation of climate system. External forcing may have contributed to the increasing trend of the Australian monsoon since the 1980s. Finally, it shows that global warming could enhance GMP, especially over the northern hemispheric ocean monsoon and southern hemispheric land monsoon.

  5. The forced and free response of the South China Sea to the large scale monsoon system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, H.; Tkalich, P.; Malanotte-Rizzoli, P.

    2012-04-01

    Non-tidal sea level anomalies (SLAs) can be produced by many different dynamical phenomena over many time scales, and they can induce serious damages in coastal regions especially during extreme events. In this work we focus on the SLAs in the South China Sea (SCS) to understand whether and how they can be related to the large scale, seasonal monsoon system which dominates the SCS circulation and dynamics. We have two major objectives. The first one is to understand whether the NE (winter) and SW (summer) monsoons can be responsible for the persistent SLAs, both positive and negative, observed at the SCS ends along the main monsoon path. The second objective is to understand the SCS response as a free system upon onset/relaxation or sudden changes in the forcing wind. It is well known that sudden changes in the forcing mechanism induce free oscillations, or seiches, in closed, semi-enclosed basins and harbors, and we want to identify the possible seiche modes of the SCS. To our knowledge, these two objectives have not been previously addressed. We address these objectives both through observational analysis and modeling simulations. Multi-year tide-gauge data from stations along the coastal regions of the SCS are analyzed examining their spatial correlations. Strong negative correlations are found between the northeast and southwest stations at the two ends of the SCS under the path of the NE/SW monsoons. They correspond to wind-induced positive/negative sea level set-ups lasting for the entire monsoon season and changing sign from winter to summer. Short periods of negative correlations are also found between the SLAs at eastern and western stations during El Nino years in which the monsoons are weaker and have an enhanced E/W component inducing corresponding sea level set-ups. The tide gauge station at Tanjong Pagar at the southwest SCS end near Singapore is chosen to study four extreme SLAs events in the observational record during 1999. Modeling simulations are

  6. Centennial-scale solar forcing of the South American Monsoon System recorded in stalagmites

    PubMed Central

    Novello, Valdir F.; Vuille, Mathias; Cruz, Francisco W.; Stríkis, Nicolás M.; de Paula, Marcos Saito; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Cheng, Hai; Karmann, Ivo; Jaqueto, Plínio F.; Trindade, Ricardo I. F.; Hartmann, Gelvam A.; Moquet, Jean S.

    2016-01-01

    The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is generally considered to be highly sensitive to Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature variations on multi-centennial timescales. The direct influence of solar forcing on moisture convergence in global monsoon systems on the other hand, while well explored in modeling studies, has hitherto not been documented in proxy data from the SAMS region. Hence little is known about the sensitivity of the SAMS to solar forcing over the past millennium and how it might compete or constructively interfere with NH temperature variations that occurred primarily in response to volcanic forcing. Here we present a new annually-resolved oxygen isotope record from a 1500-year long stalagmite recording past changes in precipitation in the hitherto unsampled core region of the SAMS. This record details how solar variability consistently modulated the strength of the SAMS on centennial time scales during the past 1500 years. Solar forcing, besides the previously recognized influence from NH temperature changes and associated Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts, appears as a major driver affecting SAMS intensity at centennial time scales. PMID:27097590

  7. Fast and Slow Responses of the South Asian Monsoon System to Anthropogenic Aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Ganguly, Dilip; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2012-09-25

    Using a global climate model with fully predictive aerosol life cycle, we investigate the fast and slow responses of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Our results show that the feedbacks associated with sea surface temperature (SST) change caused by aerosols play a more important role than the aerosol's direct impact on radiation, clouds and land surface (rapid adjustments) in shaping the total equilibrium climate response of the monsoon system to aerosol forcing. Inhomogeneous SST cooling caused by anthropogenic aerosols eventually reduces the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient and the easterly shear of zonal winds over the region, slowing down the local Hadley cell circulation, decreasing the northward moisture transport, and causing a reduction in precipitation over South Asia. Although total responses in precipitation are closer to the slow responses in general, the fast component dominates over land areas north of 25°N. Our results also show an east-west asymmetry in the fast responses to anthropogenic aerosols causing increases in precipitation west of 80°E but decreases east of it.

  8. Analysis and evaluation of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) forecast data for Indian summer monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deshpande, Medha; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Masutani, Michiko; Ma, Zaizhong; Riishojgaard, Lars Peter; Hardesty, Michael; Emmitt, Dave; Krishnamurti, T. N.; Goswami, B. N.

    2016-05-01

    An attempt is made here to evaluate the skill of forecast during boreal summer monsoon regime over the Indian region using the Observation Simulation System Experiment (OSSE) with Doppler Wind LIDAR (DWL) onboard International Space Station (ISS), assimilated in the initial condition. Through various techniques such as pattern correlation, root mean square error etc, we found that there is some positive impact of assimilating the DWL data on the forecast particularly at the lower tropospheric level. Impact on lowering the RMSE is seen for wind fields in the 850 and 500 hPa over Indian domain but not much impact is seen over larger domain. The moisture field and cloud also show marginal impact due to assimilation of DWL. This indicates that possibly due to lower spatial resolution of DWL data and more data gap over Indian and surrounding oceanic region, the impact on forecast is less. However, it shows the promise that monsoon being a convectively coupled system; increase in spatial data by DWL may better resolve the low level wind and subsequently the low level shear which is important for convection trigger in boundary layer.

  9. Centennial-scale solar forcing of the South American Monsoon System recorded in stalagmites.

    PubMed

    Novello, Valdir F; Vuille, Mathias; Cruz, Francisco W; Stríkis, Nicolás M; de Paula, Marcos Saito; Edwards, R Lawrence; Cheng, Hai; Karmann, Ivo; Jaqueto, Plínio F; Trindade, Ricardo I F; Hartmann, Gelvam A; Moquet, Jean S

    2016-01-01

    The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is generally considered to be highly sensitive to Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature variations on multi-centennial timescales. The direct influence of solar forcing on moisture convergence in global monsoon systems on the other hand, while well explored in modeling studies, has hitherto not been documented in proxy data from the SAMS region. Hence little is known about the sensitivity of the SAMS to solar forcing over the past millennium and how it might compete or constructively interfere with NH temperature variations that occurred primarily in response to volcanic forcing. Here we present a new annually-resolved oxygen isotope record from a 1500-year long stalagmite recording past changes in precipitation in the hitherto unsampled core region of the SAMS. This record details how solar variability consistently modulated the strength of the SAMS on centennial time scales during the past 1500 years. Solar forcing, besides the previously recognized influence from NH temperature changes and associated Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts, appears as a major driver affecting SAMS intensity at centennial time scales. PMID:27097590

  10. Precipitation response of monsoon low-pressure systems to an idealized uniform temperature increase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sørland, Silje Lund; Sorteberg, Asgeir; Liu, Changhai; Rasmussen, Roy

    2016-06-01

    The monsoon low-pressure systems (LPSs) are one of the most rain-bearing synoptic-scale systems developing during the Indian monsoon. We have performed high-resolution, convection-permitting experiments of 10 LPS cases with the Weather Research and Forecasting regional model, to investigate the effect of an idealized uniform temperature increase on the LPS intensification and precipitation. Perturbed runs follow a surrogate climate change approach, in which a uniform temperature perturbation is specified, but the large-scale flow and relative humidity are unchanged. The differences between control and perturbed simulations are therefore mainly due to the imposed warming and moisture changes and their feedbacks to the synoptic-scale flow. Results show that the LPS precipitation increases by 13%/K, twice the imposed moisture increase, which is on the same order as the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. This large precipitation increase is attributed to the feedbacks in vertical velocity and atmospheric stability, which together account for the high sensitivity. In the perturbed simulations the LPSs have higher propagation speeds and are more intense. The storms intensification to the uniform temperature perturbation can be interpreted in terms of the conditional instability of second kind mechanism where the condensational heating increases along with low-level convergence and vertical velocity in response to temperature and moisture increases. As a result, the surface low deepens.

  11. Centennial-scale solar forcing of the South American Monsoon System recorded in stalagmites.

    PubMed

    Novello, Valdir F; Vuille, Mathias; Cruz, Francisco W; Stríkis, Nicolás M; de Paula, Marcos Saito; Edwards, R Lawrence; Cheng, Hai; Karmann, Ivo; Jaqueto, Plínio F; Trindade, Ricardo I F; Hartmann, Gelvam A; Moquet, Jean S

    2016-04-21

    The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is generally considered to be highly sensitive to Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature variations on multi-centennial timescales. The direct influence of solar forcing on moisture convergence in global monsoon systems on the other hand, while well explored in modeling studies, has hitherto not been documented in proxy data from the SAMS region. Hence little is known about the sensitivity of the SAMS to solar forcing over the past millennium and how it might compete or constructively interfere with NH temperature variations that occurred primarily in response to volcanic forcing. Here we present a new annually-resolved oxygen isotope record from a 1500-year long stalagmite recording past changes in precipitation in the hitherto unsampled core region of the SAMS. This record details how solar variability consistently modulated the strength of the SAMS on centennial time scales during the past 1500 years. Solar forcing, besides the previously recognized influence from NH temperature changes and associated Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts, appears as a major driver affecting SAMS intensity at centennial time scales.

  12. The Offshore East African Rift System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franke, D.; Klimke, J.; Jokat, W.; Stollhofen, H.; Mahanjane, S.

    2014-12-01

    Numerous studies have addressed various aspects of the East African Rift system but surprisingly few on the offshore continuation of the south-eastern branch of the rift into the Mozambique Channel. The most prominent article has been published almost 30 years ago by Mougenot et al. (1986) and is based on vintage seismic data. Several studies investigating earthquakes and plate motions from GPS measurements reveal recent deformation along the offshore branch of the East African Rift system. Slip vectors from earthquakes data in Mozambique's offshore basins show a consistent NE direction. Fault plane solutions reveal ~ E-W extensional failure with focal depth clustering around 19 km and 40 km, respectively. Here, we present new evidence for neotectonic deformation derived from modern seismic reflection data and supported by additional geophysical data. The modern rift system obviously reactivates structures from the disintegration of eastern Gondwana. During the Jurassic/Cretaceous opening of the Somali and Mozambique Basins, Madagascar moved southwards along a major shear zone, to its present position. Since the Miocene, parts of the shear zone became reactivated and structurally overprinted by the East African rift system. The Kerimbas Graben offshore northern Mozambique is the most prominent manifestation of recent extensional deformation. Bathymetry data shows that it deepens northwards, with approximately 700 m downthrown on the eastern shoulder. The graben can be subdivided into four subbasins by crosscutting structural lineaments with a NW-SE trend. Together with the N-S striking graben-bounding faults, this resembles a conjugate fault system. In seismic reflection data normal faulting is distinct not only at the earthquake epicenters. The faults cut through the sedimentary successions and typically reach the seafloor, indicating ongoing recent deformation. Reference: Mougenot, D., Recq, M., Virlogeux, P., and Lepvrier, C., 1986, Seaward extension of the East

  13. Moisture and heat budgets of the south American monsoon system: climatological aspects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, Sâmia R.; Kayano, Mary T.; Calheiros, Alan J. P.; Andreoli, Rita Valéria; de Souza, Rodrigo Augusto Ferreira

    2016-08-01

    The climatology of the moisture and heat budget equation terms for subareas within the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) region is investigated for the 1958-2014 period considering the distinct phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These budget equations are applied to the data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis project. Sources or sinks of moisture and heat are equation residues, referred to as residue and diabatic terms, respectively. Analyses are done for the Central Amazon Basin (CAM) and Western-Central Brazil (WCB) for three distinct periods, 1958-1976, 1977-1995, and 1996-2014, that correspond to the cold, warm, and undefined PDO phases. The differences among the PDO phases for each term are discussed. The CAM region acts dominantly as a moisture sink and heat source in all months during the three phases. On the other hand, in the WCB region, the monsoon characteristics are better defined, with a moisture sink (source) and a heat source (sink) during the wet (dry) season. The main result of the present analysis is the persistence of SAMS intensification signs in both CAM and WCB areas up to the last analyzed period (1996-2014), which is consistent with intense flooding in the Amazon Basin in 2008/2009, 2012, and 2014.

  14. The role of East Asian monsoon system in shaping population divergence and dynamics of a constructive desert shrub Reaumuria soongarica

    PubMed Central

    Yin, Hengxia; Yan, Xia; Shi, Yong; Qian, Chaoju; Li, Zhonghu; Zhang, Wen; Wang, Lirong; Li, Yi; Li, Xiaoze; Chen, Guoxiong; Li, Xinrong; Nevo, Eviatar; Ma, Xiao-Fei

    2015-01-01

    Both of the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the development of East Asian monsoon system (EAMS) could have comprehensively impacted the formation and evolution of Arid Central Asia (ACA). To understand how desert plants endemic to ACA responded to these two factors, we profiled the historical population dynamics and distribution range shift of a constructive desert shrub Reaumuria soongarica (Tamaricaceae) based on species wide investigation of sequence variation of chloroplast DNA and nuclear ribosomal ITS. Phylogenetic analysis uncovered a deep divergence occurring at ca. 2.96 Mya between the western and eastern lineages of R. soongarica, and ecological niche modeling analysis strongly supported that the monsoonal climate could have fragmented its habitats in both glacial and interglacial periods and impelled its intraspecific divergence. Additionally, the population from the east monsoonal zone expanded rapidly, suggesting that the local monsoonal climate significantly impacted its population dynamics. The isolation by distance tests supported strong maternal gene flow along the direction of the East Asian winter monsoon, whose intensification induced the genetic admixture along the latitudinal populations of R. soongarica. Our results presented a new case that the development of EAMS had prominently impacted the intraspecific divergence and population dynamics of this desert plant. PMID:26510579

  15. The role of East Asian monsoon system in shaping population divergence and dynamics of a constructive desert shrub Reaumuria soongarica.

    PubMed

    Yin, Hengxia; Yan, Xia; Shi, Yong; Qian, Chaoju; Li, Zhonghu; Zhang, Wen; Wang, Lirong; Li, Yi; Li, Xiaoze; Chen, Guoxiong; Li, Xinrong; Nevo, Eviatar; Ma, Xiao-Fei

    2015-01-01

    Both of the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the development of East Asian monsoon system (EAMS) could have comprehensively impacted the formation and evolution of Arid Central Asia (ACA). To understand how desert plants endemic to ACA responded to these two factors, we profiled the historical population dynamics and distribution range shift of a constructive desert shrub Reaumuria soongarica (Tamaricaceae) based on species wide investigation of sequence variation of chloroplast DNA and nuclear ribosomal ITS. Phylogenetic analysis uncovered a deep divergence occurring at ca. 2.96 Mya between the western and eastern lineages of R. soongarica, and ecological niche modeling analysis strongly supported that the monsoonal climate could have fragmented its habitats in both glacial and interglacial periods and impelled its intraspecific divergence. Additionally, the population from the east monsoonal zone expanded rapidly, suggesting that the local monsoonal climate significantly impacted its population dynamics. The isolation by distance tests supported strong maternal gene flow along the direction of the East Asian winter monsoon, whose intensification induced the genetic admixture along the latitudinal populations of R. soongarica. Our results presented a new case that the development of EAMS had prominently impacted the intraspecific divergence and population dynamics of this desert plant. PMID:26510579

  16. West African monsoon dynamics and precipitation: the competition between global SST warming and CO2 increase in CMIP5 idealized simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaetani, Marco; Flamant, Cyrille; Bastin, Sophie; Janicot, Serge; Lavaysse, Christophe; Hourdin, Frederic; Braconnot, Pascale; Bony, Sandrine

    2016-04-01

    Climate variability associated with the West African monsoon (WAM) has important environmental and socio-economic impacts in the region. However, state-of-the-art climate models still struggle in producing reliable climate predictions. An important cause of this low predictive skill is the sensitivity of climate models to different forcings. In this study, the mechanisms linking the WAM dynamics to the CO2 forcing are investigated, by comparing the effect of the CO2 direct radiative effect with its indirect effect mediated by the global sea surface warming. The July-to-September WAM variability is studied in climate simulations extracted from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive, driven by prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). The individual roles of global SST warming and CO2 atmospheric concentration increase are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4 K warmer SST and a quadrupled CO2 concentration, respectively. Results show opposite and competing responses in the WAM dynamics and precipitation. A dry response (-0.6 mm/day) to the SST warming is simulated in the Sahel, with dryer conditions over western Sahel (-0.8 mm/day). Conversely, the CO2 increase produces wet conditions (+0.5 mm/day) in the Sahel, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel (+0.7 mm/day). The associated responses in the atmospheric dynamics are also analysed, showing that the SST warming affects the Sahelian precipitation through modifications in the global tropical atmospheric dynamics, reducing the importance of the regional drivers, while the CO2 increase reinforces the coupling between precipitation and regional dynamics. A general agreement in model responses demonstrates the robustness of the identified mechanisms linking the WAM dynamics to the CO2 direct and indirect forcing, and indicates that these primary mechanisms are captured by climate models. Results also suggest that the spread in future projections may be caused by

  17. Flash flood causing mechanisms of the North American Monsoon System in the Sonoran Desert

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bieda, Stephen Walter, III

    The North American Monsoon System (NAMS) is a significant weather and climate phenomenon that brings critical rainfall to the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. As a result of the North American Monsoon Experiment, and research efforts surrounding the field campaign, the understanding of the NAMS has increased considerably over the last 15 years. In addition questions concerning potential flash flood causing mechanisms of the NAMS have not been thoroughly investigated. This dissertation is comprised of two papers that collectively address the aspects of the literary understanding of the NAMS as we know it today and conduct an investigation into the complex interactions between various weather systems that may influence the NAMS. In the first paper, a review of the major research of the NAMS literature since the last comprehensive review 15 years ago is conducted. The results of his review are assessed for where our understanding has been improved and where future research needs to be guided for purposes of the second paper. Based upon the results from the literature review, the second paper focuses on identification of inverted troughs and gulf surges based upon lower- and mid-level atmospheric parameters for purposes of assessing the impacts on National Weather Service Storm Report flash flood dates. This research contributes to the synthesis of the current knowledge of the NAMS in general and to the specific regional impacts that do occur during periods of heavy precipitation over the NAMS region for purposes of improving meteorological predictability of flash flooding. The results can (1) gauge our understanding of the NAMS literature to date and (2) improve meteorological forecasts through the recognition of synoptic and sub-synoptic patterns related to the NAMS that are most likely to cause flash floods.

  18. Global Monsoon Dynamics and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhisheng, An; Guoxiong, Wu; Jianping, Li; Youbin, Sun; Yimin, Liu; Weijian, Zhou; Yanjun, Cai; Anmin, Duan; Li, Li; Jiangyu, Mao; Hai, Cheng; Zhengguo, Shi; Liangcheng, Tan; Hong, Yan; Hong, Ao; Hong, Chang; Juan, Feng

    2015-05-01

    This article provides a comprehensive review of the global monsoon that encompasses findings from studies of both modern monsoons and paleomonsoons. We introduce a definition for the global monsoon that incorporates its three-dimensional distribution and ultimate causes, emphasizing the direct drive of seasonal pressure system changes on monsoon circulation and depicting the intensity in terms of both circulation and precipitation. We explore the global monsoon climate changes across a wide range of timescales from tectonic to intraseasonal. Common features of the global monsoon are global homogeneity, regional diversity, seasonality, quasi-periodicity, irregularity, instability, and asynchroneity. We emphasize the importance of solar insolation, Earth orbital parameters, underlying surface properties, and land-air-sea interactions for global monsoon dynamics. We discuss the primary driving force of monsoon variability on each timescale and the relationships among dynamics on multiple timescales. Natural processes and anthropogenic impacts are of great significance to the understanding of future global monsoon behavior.

  19. Climate change in the South American Monsoon System: present climate and CMIP5 projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, C.; Carvalho, L. V.

    2013-05-01

    The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is the most important climatic feature in South America. This study focuses on the large-scale characteristics of the SAMS: seasonal amplitudes, onset and demise dates and durations. Changes in the SAMS are investigated with the gridded precipitation, CFSR reanalyses and fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations for two scenarios ("historical" and high emission representative concentration pathways "rcp8.5"). Qualitative comparisons with a previous study indicate that some CMIP5 models have significantly improved their representation of the SAMS relative to their CMIP3 versions. Some models exhibit persistent deficiencies in simulating the SAMS. The observations and CMIP5 model simulations (historical experiment) consistently show statistically significant trends indicating the SAMS has larger seasonal amplitudes, early onsets, late demises and longer durations in recent decades. Future changes in the SAMS are analyzed with six CMIP5 model simulations of the rcp8.5 high emission scenario. All simulations unquestionably show significant increases in seasonal amplitudes, early onsets and late demises of the SAMS. The simulations for this scenario project a 30% increase in the amplitude from the current level by 2045-2050. In addition, the rcp8.5 scenario projects an ensemble mean decrease of 14-day in the onset and 17-day increase in the demise date of the SAMS by 2045-2050. The results additionally indicate lack of spatial agreement in model projections of changes in total wet season precipitation over South America during 2070-100. The CMIP5 projections analyzed here suggest increases in total monsoon precipitation over southeast Brazil, Uruguay and northern Argentina

  20. Reconstructing Holocene hematite and goethite variations in the Indus Canyon to trace changes in the Asian monsoon system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koehler, Cornelia; Clift, Peter; Pressling, Nicola; Limmer, David; Giosan, Liviu; Tabrez, Ali

    2010-05-01

    In order to study Holocene Asian monsoon variations, we reconstructed changes in chemical weathering by examining sediments from the Indus Canyon. During the late Holocene, the Asian monsoon system had periods of high and low intensities that influenced the civilisations living in its realm. For example, the demise of the Harappan civilisation has been linked to a weakened monsoon system around 4 ka. The sediments in the Indus Canyon, which originate from the River Indus and its Himalayan tributaries, provide an ideal, natural environmental archive of the South Asian monsoon system. In order to investigate the alternation between arid and humid monsoonal climatic conditions, variations are traced using the magnetic minerals hematite and goethite, which form under distinct environmental conditions: goethite is stable under humid conditions, whereas hematite forms from the dehydration of goethite under arid conditions. The two minerals are characterised and quantified using environmental magnetic measurements, as well as diffuse reflectance spectrometry. Combining both approaches will enable us to reconstruct variations in chemical weathering over time. Furthermore, because this is governed by temperature and the availability of moisture, our weathering record will allow us to understand monsoon variability during the Holocene and test whether summer rain intensity has been decreasing in SW Asia since 8 ka. In addition, the multi-component analysis of colour reflectance spectra identifies different mineral components including hematite/goethite, clay mineral mixtures, calcite and organics. We will present our results from the multi-sensor core logger equipped with a Minolta spectrometer, measuring both magnetic susceptibility and the optical properties of the split sediment cores. Initial results indicate the presence of hematite and goethite in the sediment. There is an increasing hematite content up the cores, indicating an aridification trend during the Holocene

  1. Evaluation of the impact of AIRS profiles on prediction of Indian summer monsoon using WRF variational data assimilation system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raju, Attada; Parekh, Anant; Kumar, Prashant; Gnanaseelan, C.

    2015-08-01

    This study investigates the impact of temperature and moisture profiles from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the prediction of the Indian summer monsoon, using the variational data assimilation system annexed to the Weather Research and Forecasting model. In this study, three numerical experiments are carried out. The first is the control and includes no assimilation; in the second, named Conv, assimilation of conventional Global Telecommunication System data is performed. The third one, named ConvAIRS, is identical to the Conv except that it also includes assimilation of AIRS profiles. The initial fields of tropospheric temperature and water vapor mixing ratio showed significant improvement over the model domain. Assimilation of AIRS profiles has significant impact on predicting the seasonal mean monsoon characteristics such as tropospheric temperature, low-level moisture distribution, easterly wind shear, and precipitation. The vertical structure of the root-mean-square error is substantially affected by the assimilation of AIRS profiles, with smaller errors in temperature, humidity, and wind magnitude. The consequent improved representation of moisture convergence in the boundary layer (deep convection as well) causes an increase in precipitation forecast skill. The fact that the monsoonal circulation is better captured, thanks to an improved representation of thermal gradients, which in turn leads to more realistic moisture transport, is particularly noteworthy. Several previous data impact studies with AIRS and other sensors have focused on the short or medium range of the forecast. The demonstrated improvement in all the predicted fields associated with the Indian summer monsoon, consequent to the month long assimilation of AIRS profiles, is an innovative finding with large implications to the operational seasonal forecasting capabilities over the Indian subcontinent.

  2. African Americans, hypertension and the renin angiotensin system

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Sandra F; Nicholas, Susanne B; Vaziri, Nosratola D; Norris, Keith C

    2014-01-01

    African Americans have exceptionally high rates of hypertension and hypertension related complications. It is commonly reported that the blood pressure lowering efficacy of renin angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors is attenuated in African Americans due to a greater likelihood of having a low renin profile. Therefore these agents are often not recommended as initial therapy in African Americans with hypertension. However, the high prevalence of comorbid conditions, such as diabetes, cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease makes treatment with RAS inhibitors more compelling. Despite lower circulating renin levels and a less significant fall in blood pressure in response to RAS inhibitors in African Americans, numerous clinical trials support the efficacy of RAS inhibitors to improve clinical outcomes in this population, especially in those with hypertension and risk factors for cardiovascular and related diseases. Here, we discuss the rationale of RAS blockade as part of a comprehensive approach to attenuate the high rates of premature morbidity and mortality associated with hypertension among African Americans. PMID:25276290

  3. The Asian-Australian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Meehl, G.A.; Arblaster, J.M.

    1998-06-01

    Features associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon system and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled Climate System Model (CSM). Simulation characteristics are compared with a version of the atmospheric component of the CSM, the NCAR CCM3, run with time-evolving SSTs from 1950 to 1994, and with observations. The CSM is shown to represent most major features of the monsoon system in terms of mean climatology, interannual variability, and connections to the tropical Pacific. This includes a representation of the Southern Oscillation links between strong Asian-Australian monsoons and associated negative SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial SST gradient across the Pacific in the CSM is shown to be similar to the observed with somewhat cooler mean SSTs across the entire Pacific by about 1--2 C. The seasonal cycle of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific has the characteristic signature seen in the observations of relatively warmer SSTs propagating westward in the first half of the year followed by the reestablishment of the cold tongue with relatively colder SSTs propagating westward in the second half of the year. Like other global coupled models, the propagation is similar to the observed but with the establishment of the relatively warmer water in the first half of the year occurring about 1--2 months later than observed. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific is also similar to other global coupled models in that there is a tendency for a stronger-than-observed double ITCZ year round, particularly in northern spring, but with a well-reproduced annual maximum of ITCZ strength north of the equator in the second half of the year.

  4. Indian Monsoon Depression: Climatology and Variability

    SciTech Connect

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Huang, Wan-Ru

    2012-03-09

    The monsoon climate is traditionally characterized by large seasonal rainfall and reversal of wind direction (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Most importantly this rainfall is the major source of fresh water to various human activities such as agriculture. The Indian subcontinent resides at the core of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon system, with the monsoon trough extended from northern India across Indochina to the Western Tropical Pacific (WTP). Large fraction of annual rainfall occurs during the summer monsoon season, i.e., June - August with two distinct maxima. One is located over the Bay of Bengal with rainfall extending northwestward into eastern and central India, and the other along the west coast of India where the lower level moist wind meets the Western Ghat Mountains (Saha and Bavardeckar 1976). The rest of the Indian subcontinent receives relatively less rainfall. Various weather systems such as tropical cyclones and weak disturbances contribute to monsoon rainfall (Ramage 1971). Among these systems, the most efficient rain-producing system is known as the Indian monsoon depression (hereafter MD). This MD is critical for monsoon rainfall because: (i) it occurs about six times during each summer monsoon season, (ii) it propagates deeply into the continent and produces large amounts of rainfall along its track, and (iii) about half of the monsoon rainfall is contributed to by the MDs (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Therefore, understanding various properties of the MD is a key towards comprehending the veracity of the Indian summer monsoon and especially its hydrological process.

  5. Temporal and structural evolution of a tropical monsoon cloud system: A case study using X-band radar observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar Das, Subrata; Deshpande, Sachin M.; Shankar Das, Siddarth; Konwar, Mahen; Chakravarty, Kaustav; Kalapureddy, Madhu Chandra Reddy

    2015-10-01

    A mobile X-band (~9.535 GHz) dual-polarization Doppler weather radar system was operated at a tropical site Pune (18.5386°N, 73.8089°E, 582 m AMSL) by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India for observing monsoon clouds. The measurement site was on the leeward (eastern) side of the Western Ghats (WG). This study focuses on the horizontal and vertical structure of monsoon precipitating clouds and its temporal evolution as observed by the X-band radar on August 27, 2011. The radar reflectivity factor (Z, dBZ) is used as a proxy for measure of intensity of cloud system. Result shows that the radar reflectivity has a strong temporal variation in the vertical, with a local peak occurring in the afternoon hours. Relatively shallow structure during the late night and early morning hours is noticed. The observed cloud tops were reached up to 8 km heights with reflectivity maxima of about 35 dBZ at ∼5 km. The spatial and vertical evolution of radar reflectivity is consistent with the large-scale monsoon circulation. The variations in the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from the Kalpana-1 satellite and vertical velocity and cloud-mixing ratio from the Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data are also analyzed. As direct observations of clouds using radars are sparse over the Indian region, the results presented here would be useful to understand the processes related to cloud and precipitation formation in the tropical environment.

  6. Response of the Surface Circulation of the Arabian Sea to Monsoonal Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beal, L. M.; Hormann, V.; Lumpkin, R.; Foltz, G. R.

    2014-12-01

    We use two decades of drifter and satellite data to examine the monthly evolution of the surface circulation of the Arabian Sea, which reverses annually in response to the Indian monsoon winds. Most significantly, we find that in the transition from winter to summer circulations, northward flow appears along the length of the western boundary as early as March or April, one or two months before the onset of the southwest monsoon winds. This reversal is initiated by annual Rossby waves, which in turn are initiated by wind curl forcing during the previous southwest monsoon. These results lead us to speculate that there is an oceanic mechanism through which one monsoon may precondition the next. Previous studies of monsoon circulations with lower temporal resolution have highlighted basin-wide currents and connections that are not found to exist in the monthly fields. In particular, we find that the Northeast Monsoon Current does not reach the western boundary and there is no counter-rotating gyre system during boreal winter. South of the equator, the eastward-flowing South Equatorial Counter Current (SECC) is present year-round, even though equatorial winds are strongly influenced by the monsoons. Semi-annual variability of the SECC is governed by Ekman pumping over the south equatorial gyre (or Seychelles dome) and, surprisingly, it is weakest during the northeast monsoon. This region has important influence on the atmosphere and its link to the monsoons deserves further investigation. The East African Coastal Current feeds into the SECC from the boundary. During the southwest monsoon it overshoots the equator and splits, feeding both northward into the Somali Current and eastward into the SECC after looping back across the equator. This apparent retroflection of the EACC is what was previously known as the southern gyre and is obscured at the surface by strong, locally wind-driven, cross-equatorial Ekman transport. Finally, there is broad, strong eastward flow at

  7. Impact of potential large-scale and medium-scale irrigation on the West African Monsoon and its dependence on location of irrigated area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eltahir, E. A. B.; IM, E. S.

    2014-12-01

    This study investigates the impact of potential large-scale (about 400,000 km2) and medium-scale (about 60,000 km2) irrigation on the climate of West Africa using the MIT Regional Climate Model. A new irrigation module is implemented to assess the impact of location and scheduling of irrigation on rainfall distribution over West Africa. A control simulation (without irrigation) and various sensitivity experiments (with irrigation) are performed and compared to discern the effects of irrigation location, size and scheduling. In general, the irrigation-induced surface cooling due to anomalously wet soil tends to suppress moist convection and rainfall, which in turn induces local subsidence and low level anti-cyclonic circulation. These local effects are dominated by a consistent reduction of local rainfall over the irrigated land, irrespective of its location. However, the remote response of rainfall distribution to irrigation exhibits a significant sensitivity to the latitudinal position of irrigation. The low-level northeasterly flow associated with anti-cyclonic circulation centered over the irrigation area can enhance the extent of low level convergence through interaction with the prevailing monsoon flow, leading to significant increase in rainfall. Despite much reduced forcing of irrigation water, the medium-scale irrigation seems to draw the same response as large-scale irrigation, which supports the robustness of the response to irrigation in our modeling system. Both large-scale and medium-scale irrigation experiments show that an optimal irrigation location and scheduling exists that would lead to a more efficient use of irrigation water. The approach of using a regional climate model to investigate the impact of location and size of irrigation schemes may be the first step in incorporating land-atmosphere interactions in the design of location and size of irrigation projects. However, this theoretical approach is still in early stages of development and

  8. The forced and free response of the South China Sea to the large-scale monsoon system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Haoliang; Tkalich, Pavel; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola; Wei, Jun

    2012-03-01

    Non-tidal sea level anomalies (SLAs) can be produced by many different dynamical phenomena over many time scales, and they can induce serious damages in coastal regions especially during extreme events. In this work, we focus on the SLAs in the South China Sea (SCS) to understand whether and how they can be related to the large-scale, seasonal monsoon system which dominates the SCS circulation and dynamics. We have two major objectives. The first one is to understand whether the NE (winter) and SW (summer) monsoons can be responsible for the persistent SLAs, both positive and negative, observed at the SCS ends along the main monsoon path. The second objective is to understand the SCS response as a free system upon onset/relaxation or sudden changes in the forcing wind. It is well known that sudden changes in the forcing mechanism induce free oscillations, or seiches, in closed, semi-enclosed basins and harbors, and we want to identify the possible seiche modes of the SCS. To our knowledge, these two objectives have not been previously addressed. We address these objectives both through observational analysis and modeling simulations. Multi-year tide-gauge data from stations along the coastal regions of the SCS are analyzed examining their spatial correlations. Strong negative correlations are found between the northeast and southwest stations at the two ends of the SCS under the path of the NE/SW monsoons. They correspond to wind-induced positive/negative sea level set-ups lasting for the entire monsoon season and changing sign from winter to summer. Short periods of negative correlations are also found between the SLAs at eastern and western stations during El Niño years in which the monsoons are weaker and have an enhanced E/W component inducing corresponding sea level set-ups. The tide-gauge station at Tanjong Pagar at the southwest SCS end near Singapore is chosen to study four extreme SLAs events in the observational record during 1999. Modeling simulations

  9. Response of the Indo-Australian Monsoon System to Heinrich Events: Evidence from Marine and Terrestrial Sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muller, J.; McManus, J. F.; Oppo, D.; Francois, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    The biannual Asian monsoon dominates the climate of tropical and subtropical regions, bringing a strong seasonal rainfall contrast in these areas. In recent years computer models and paleoclimate records from various tropical locations have demonstrated the sensitivity of the tropical monsoon system to Northern Hemisphere abrupt climate change events. This study presents data from a somewhat underrepresented region, the Australian and southern Indonesian region. Here we compare a new deep-sea sediment record for the Flores Sea, with a terrestrial peat core record from Lynch's Crater, NE Queensland Australia. In the Flores Sea we use the long-lived nuclide 232Th as a novel proxy for detrital riverine input and 230Th normalization to estimate the history of preserved fluxes reaching the seafloor in the Flores Sea. The 230Th normalized burial fluxes of lithogenic and biogenic matter demonstrate that both detrital and biogenic fluxes in the Flores Sea were higher during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) than any other period in the past 22 kyr. High detrital fluxes indicate enhanced precipitation runoff from surrounding landmasses during a period of maximum southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The enhanced precipitation associated with HS1 over the Flores Sea is in good timing with a previously interpreted wet event over Lynch's Crater, NE Australia. Our results provide strong evidence for a southward migration of the ITCZ during HS1 and a return northward during the Bølling-Allerød interstadial. This work highlights the sensitivity of Australasian rainfall patterns to high latitude climate change in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, our work constrains both the northern and southern limits of enhanced rainfall associated with a southward shift of the monsoon belt at the time of HS1 and highlights the value of 232Th as a proxy for continental input to deep-sea sediment records.

  10. Variability of the Somali current system during the onset of the Southwest Monsoon, 1979

    SciTech Connect

    Schott, F.; Quadfasel, D.R.

    1982-12-01

    An array of six current-meter moorings and several coastal temperature recorders was deployed on the shelf and continental slope off northern Somalia from March to July 1979; a seventh mooring was placed near 2/sup 0/S. In addition, four deep-sea moorings were deployed for a period of one month in May--June farther offshore. Already during the late northeast monsoon in March the Somali Current north of 5/sup 0/N was flowing northeastward in the top 150 m. Underneath, in the depth range 150--400 m, a narrow southward undercurrent was observed from March to June. After the first onset of the southwest monsoon, which occurred around 5 May when winds shifted from easterly to southwesterly parallel to the coast, the near-surface temperatures on the shelf decreased immediately with no detectable phase difference between 6 and 10/sup 0/N, but no change was observed in the offshore circulation pattern. The final monsoon onset around 10 June was characterized by a drastic increase in wind speeds and the establishment of a strong anticyclonic wind-stress curl over the northern Somali Basin. The current measurements showed that within a few days after this onset the northern Somali gyre spun up over the deep sea and then propagated northwestward toward the coast with a speed of 12 cm s/sup -1/. These findings are in good agreement with results of satellite infrared imagery. The observed gyre kinematics can be explained by locally generated non-equatorial Rossby waves. When the onset reaches the coast the shallow coastal undercurrent is extinguished. Superimposed on the gyre-scale variability were fluctuations in the period ranges of weeks to months and of 3--5 days. There is evidence that the energies of the latter were related to the development of the Somali Current. Significant differences were found in a comparison of the 1979 current measurements south of the equator with observations obtained there during the monsoon onset of 1976.

  11. Onset of the summer monsoon during the FGGE 1979 experiment off the East African Coast: A comparison of wind data collected by different means

    SciTech Connect

    Schott, F.; Partagas, J.F.

    1981-05-20

    During FGGE 1979, from March to July, an extensive oceanographic experiment with ships and moored stations was carried out in the Somali Current. The development of the monsoon winds off Somalia during the time of that experiment is described in a comparative analysis of standard ship wind observations, moored buoy wind measurements, low-level cloud winds, and winds from land stations. The onset 1979 is found to be of the multiple type, with northward winds off Somalia beginning around May 5 but dying down into early June; the real onset of sustained high winds starts around June 10. Cloud level wind observation numbers off Somalia decrease drastically with the monsoon onset because of lack of clouds over the quickly developing cold upwelling areas. An intercomparison of cloud level and ship winds for the period May 16 to July 6 at five offshore points shows good agreement in directions but reduction of ship wind speeds against cloud level winds off northern Somalia after the onset, which may explained by the increased vertical wind shear due to high air stability over the upwelled water and by geostrophic shear due to the strong gradients of sea surface temperature. A comparison of 3-day averages of buoy winds measured at 3-m height 30 km offshore, but still inland from the ship lane, with ship winds for the period March 3 to June 10 showed good agreement in directions but lower buoy wind speeds, which could partly be due to sensor height difference and partly due to horizontal wind shear towards the coast. Coastal stations and wind buoys near the coast are found not to be good indicators of the monsoon onset further out in the open ocean.

  12. Improvements in the representation of the Indian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bombardi, Rodrigo J.; Schneider, Edwin K.; Marx, Lawrence; Halder, Subhadeep; Singh, Bohar; Tawfik, Ahmed B.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Kinter, James L.

    2015-11-01

    A new triggering mechanism for deep convection based on the heated condensation framework (HCF) is implemented into the National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2). The new trigger is added as an additional criterion in the simplified Arakawa-Schubert scheme for deep convection. Seasonal forecasts are performed to evaluate the influence of the new triggering mechanism in the representation of the Indian summer monsoon in the CFSv2. The HCF trigger improves the seasonal representation of precipitation over the Indian subcontinent. The new triggering mechanism leads to a significant, albeit relatively small, improvement in the bias of seasonal precipitation totals. In addition, the new trigger improves the representation of the seasonal precipitation cycle including the monsoon onset, and the probability distribution of precipitation intensities. The mechanism whereby the HCF improves convection over India seems to be related not only to a better representation of the background state of atmospheric convection but also to an increase in the frequency in which SAS is triggered. As a result, there was an increase in convective precipitation over India favored by the availability of moist convective instability. The increase in precipitation intensity leads to a reduction in the dry bias.

  13. Welfare Systems and African-Americans: Historical Notes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nicholson, Rosetta

    1975-01-01

    An historical discussion of the relationship of American welfare systems to African-Americans, stating that Europeans, primarily from England, reluctantly established meagre, inhumane welfare systems based on seventeenth century English philosophy and tradition for members of their own nationality group after more than two centuries of poverty in…

  14. Variability of Moisture Sources and Moisture Transport in the East Asian Monsoon System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fremme, Astrid; Sodemann, Harald

    2016-04-01

    The rainfall of the East Asian Monsoon is of key importance for livelihoods in the densely populated area of China, Japan and Korea. The interplay of many factors, including land surface processes, makes monsoon precipitation difficult to predict. To contribute to improved precipitation prediction we investigate the atmospheric mechanisms importing moisture to the region. In previous studies moisture transport has mainly been analysed by examining a combination of temperature, pressure, winds and water vapour content. However this has been done without linking precipitation to its moisture sources directly. In this project we use the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART and the diagnostic tool WaterSip to analyse ERA Interim reanalysis data to obtain a link between precipitation and its moisture sources. The total atmospheric mass is subdivided into millions air parcels, which are traced backwards for 20 days for each rainfall event in the 34 year ERA-Interim period. Specific humidity changes are interpreted as evaporation and precipitation in the area beneath the parcel with the help of a sophisticated accounting method related to target precipitation. Results on the relationship between source and sink areas reflect changes in the conditions of the source regions and in moisture transport. We investigate the moisture transport mechanisms for both seasonal and inter-annual variations during the study period 1979-2013. Preliminary results show that the sources for precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) in China have a clear seasonal cycle in terms of location and evaporation conditions. Land areas outside the YRV Region contribute most of the moisture. The second largest source is inside the YRV region itself. For monthly means the sum of all direct oceanic sources rarely exceeds 20%. Recycling of moisture from land surfaces outside the target regions therefore seems to play a pivotal role in the East Asian Monsoon's moisture budget. Contrasting

  15. Holocene variations in peatland methane cycling associated with the Asian summer monsoon system

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Yanhong; Singarayer, Joy S.; Cheng, Peng; Yu, Xuefeng; Liu, Zhao; Valdes, Paul J.; Pancost, Richard D.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric methane concentrations decreased during the early to middle Holocene; however, the governing mechanisms remain controversial. Although it has been suggested that the mid-Holocene minimum methane emissions are associated with hydrological change, direct evidence is lacking. Here we report a new independent approach, linking hydrological change in peat sediments from the Tibetan Plateau to changes in archaeal diether concentrations and diploptene δ13C values as tracers for methanogenesis and methanotrophy, respectively. A minimum in inferred methanogenesis occurred during the mid-Holocene, which, locally, corresponds with the driest conditions of the Holocene, reflecting a minimum in Asian monsoon precipitation. The close coupling between precipitation and methanogenesis is validated by climate simulations, which also suggest a regionally widespread impact. Importantly, the minimum in methanogenesis is associated with a maximum in methanotrophy. Therefore, methane emissions in the Tibetan Plateau region were apparently lower during the mid-Holocene and partially controlled by interactions of large-scale atmospheric circulation. PMID:25135106

  16. Innovative tephra studies in the East African Rift System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    WoldeGabriel, Giday; Hart, William K.; Heiken, Grant

    Geosciences investigations form the foundation for paleoanthropological research in the East African Rift System. However, innovative applications of tephra studies for constraining spatial and temporal relations of diverse geological processes, biostratigraphic records, and paleoenvironmental conditions within the East African Rift System were fueled by paleoanthropological investigations into the origin and evolution of hominids and material culture. Tephra is a collective, size-independent term used for any material ejected during an explosive volcanic eruption.The East African Rift System has become a magnet for paleoanthropological research ever since the discovery of the first hominids at Olduvai Gorge, in Tanzania, in the 1950s [Leakey et al., 1961]. Currently, numerous multidisciplinary scientific teams from academic institutions in the United States and Western Europe make annual pilgrimages for a couple of months to conduct paleoanthropological field research in the fossil-rich sedimentary deposits of the East African Rift System in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania. The field expedition consists of geological, paleontological, archaeological, and paleoenvironmental investigations.

  17. The monsoon experiment MONEX

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Das, P. K.

    1979-01-01

    The effects of monsoons in different parts of the world on the Earth's atmosphere were studied by MONEX, India's Monsoon Experiment program. Data were gathered from meteorological satellites, sounding rockets, aircraft, land and shipborne stations.

  18. Coastal dunefields of south Brazil as a record of climatic changes in the South American Monsoon System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendes, Vinícius Ribau; Giannini, Paulo César Fonseca

    2015-10-01

    Southern Brazil coastal dunefields are undergoing a stabilization process that appears to be influenced by climate change. Although this process is relatively well known in the literature, the precise climatic mechanisms involved were not fully understood until now. Here, we propose a new method for integrating meteorological data with dunefield morphology analyses by remote sensing to better understand the impacts of recent climate change on dunefield dynamics. Based on this approach, three successive morphological phases were identified for the Santa Catarina central coast dunefields since 1938: (i) increased sand saturation; (ii) reduced sand saturation with consequent accelerated dune migration; and (iii) decelerated dune migration with trends of stabilization by the vegetation cover. For the coastal dunefields of southern Brazil, the stabilization process can be explained mechanistically by an increase in precipitation and decrease of wind power, both of which were correlated with the intensification of the South American Monsoon System.

  19. Trends and variability of East African rainfall and its relationship to the Mascarene High pressure system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seregina, Larisa; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Fink, Andreas H.; Ermert, Volker

    2016-04-01

    In the recent decades, East Africa needs to deal with strong fluctuations in seasonal rainfall including precipitation extremes. In context of climate change, such extremes can become more frequent in the future. However, regional climate projections are uncertain about the future development of seasonal precipitation in the region. Rainfall regimes over East Africa are influenced by multiple factors, including two monsoon systems, several convergence zones and the Rift Valley lakes. In addition, local conditions, like topography, modulate the large-scale rainfall pattern. East African rainfall variability is also influenced by various teleconnections like the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The study of past climate variability in East Africa requires sufficient observational data coverage in the region. As East Africa does not have a dense observational network of meteorological stations, satellite rainfall observations gain on importance in studies on climate variability in the region. The specific aim of the present study is the analysis of historic data from weather stations in East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Ruanda and Uganda), the use of gridded satellite products, and three-dimensional atmospheric reanalysis (e.g., ERA-Interim) to quantify climate variability in the recent past and to understand its causes. Climate variability and trends, including changes in extreme events, are evaluated using ETCCDI climate change and standardized precipitation indices. These climate indices are determined in order to investigate the variability of rainfall and its trends with the focus on recent decades. For seasonal trend analysis, an independent and non-calendaric rainfall onset criterion is introduced. In the follow-up, statistical and dynamical analyses are conducted to quantify the local impact of Mascarene High as a part of the Subtropical High Pressure Ridge on East African seasonal rainfall. Possible connections to pertinent large

  20. Global aspects of monsoons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murakami, T.

    1985-01-01

    Recent developments are studied in three areas of monsoon research: (1) global aspects of the monsoon onset, (2) the orographic influence of the Tibetan Plateau on the summer monsoon circulations, and (3) tropical 40 to 50 day oscillations. Reference was made only to those studies that are primarily based on FGGE Level IIIb data. A brief summary is given.

  1. Projected response of East Asian summer monsoon system to future reductions in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhili; Zhang, Hua; Zhang, Xiaoye

    2016-09-01

    The response of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system to reductions in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors at the end of the twenty-first century projected by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 is studied using an aerosol-climate model with aerosol direct, semi-direct, and indirect effects included. Our results show that the global annual mean aerosol effective radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is +1.45 W m-2 from 2000 to 2100. The summer mean net all-sky shortwave fluxes averaged over the East Asian monsoon region (EAMR) at the TOA and surface increased by +3.9 and +4.0 W m-2, respectively, due to the reductions of aerosols in 2100 relative to 2000. Changes in radiations affect local thermodynamic and dynamic processes and the hydrological cycle. The summer mean surface temperature and pressure averaged over the EAMR are shown to increase by 1.7 K and decreased by 0.3 hPa, respectively, due to the reduced aerosols. The magnitudes of these changes are larger over land than ocean, causing a marked increase in the contrast of land-sea surface temperature and pressure in the EAMR, thus strengthening the EASM. The summer mean southwest and south winds at 850 hPa are enhanced over eastern and southern China and the surrounding oceans, and the East Asian subtropical jet shifted northward due to the decreases of aerosols. These factors also indicate enhanced EASM circulation, which in turn causes a 10 % increase in summer mean precipitation averaged over the EAMR.

  2. An assessment of monsoon precipitation changes during 1901-2001: Observation and Model Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, T.; Zhang, L.

    2010-12-01

    Changes of global land monsoon precipitation are examined by using three sets of rain-gauge precipitation data for the period of 1901-2001 compiled by GPCC, CRU and Dai, respectively. The three datasets show consistent long-term changes of precipitation over the monsoon region with slightly different amplitudes. During 1901-2001, global land monsoon precipitation (GMI) exhibits multi-decadal variations, with an overall increasing trend from 1901 to 1955, followed by a decreasing trend up to 2001. The upward trends during 1901-1955 of global and northern hemispheric land monsoon precipitation are mainly resulted from the increased precipitation over the North African, Indian and East Asian monsoon domains. For the whole period of 1901-2001, precipitation averaged over the Northern Hemisphere and global land monsoon areas all exhibit a decreasing trends, although it is only statistically significant at the 5% level for the Northern Hemisphere. The robust decreasing trend of northern hemispheric land monsoon precipitations during the 20th century mainly comes from the downward trend of North African and eastern part of Indian monsoon precipitation and occurs mainly after the 1950s. The first leading mode of Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of precipitation annual range features a coherent change of North African, South Asian, Northeast China, southern South African, eastern Australian and western American monsoon, and a coherent change over the equatorial South African monsoon and eastern American monsoon. The corresponding principal component time series also indicates that the majority of global land monsoon precipitation has experienced an increasing tendency from 1901 to 1950s and a decreasing trend since 1950s. The results of observational data diagnosis are compared with the results of AGCM simulations forced by historical sea surface temperature. Possible mechanisms for global land monsoon changes are discussed.

  3. Impact of Interactive Aerosol on the African Easterly Jet in the NASA GEOS-5 Global Forecasting System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reale, O.; Lau, K. M.; da Silva, A.

    2010-01-01

    The real-time treatment of interactive realistically varying aerosol in a global operational forecasting system, as opposed to prescribed (fixed or climatologically varying) aerosols, is a very difficult challenge that only recently begins to be addressed. Experiment results from a recent version of the NASA GEOS-5 forecasting system, inclusive of interactive aerosol treatment, are presented in this work. Four sets of 30 5-day forecasts are initialized from a high quality set of analyses previously produced and documented to cover the period from 15 August to 16 September 2006, which corresponds to the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (NAMMA) observing campaign. The four forecast sets are at two different horizontal resolutions and with and without interactive aerosol treatment. The net impact of aerosol, at times in which there is a strong dust outbreak, is a temperature increase at the dust level and decrease in the near-surface levels, in complete agreement with previous observational and modeling studies. Moreover, forecasts in which interactive aerosols are included depict an African Easterly (AEJ) at slightly higher elevation, and slightly displace northward, with respect to the forecasts in which aerosols are not include. The shift in the AEJ position goes in the direction of observations and agrees with previous results.

  4. Formation of the modern current system in the East China Sea since the early Holocene and its relationship with sea level and the monsoon system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Xufeng; Li, Anchun; Wan, Shiming; Jiang, Fuqing; Yin, Xueming; Lu, Jian

    2015-07-01

    The Okinawa Trough is a natural laboratory for the study of air-sea interaction and paleoenvironmental change. It has been demonstrated that present offshore export of particles in the bottom nepheloid layer occur primarily with downwelling from the northeast winter monsoon, which is inhibited by a transverse circulation pattern in summer. This current system was very different during the Last Glacial Maximum owing to low sea level (-120 m) and exposure of a large shelf area. We collected sediment core Oki01 from the middle Okinawa Trough during 2012 using R/V Kexue No. 1 to elucidate the timing and cause of the current system transition in the East China Sea. Clay mineral, dry density, and elemental (Ti, Ca) composition of core Oki01 was analyzed. The results indicate that clay minerals derived mainly from the Huanghe (Yellow) and the Changjiang (Yangtze) Rivers during 16.0-11.6 ka, and the modern current system in the East China Sea formed beginning in the early Holocene. Therefore, mixing of East China Sea continental shelf, Changjiang River and partially Taiwan Island sediment are the major contributors. The decrease of log(Ti/Ca) and alternating provenance since the early Holocene indicate less sediment from the East China in summer because of resistance of the modern current system, i.e., a "water barrier" and upwelling. Conversely, sediment delivery persists in winter and log(Ti/Ca) indicates the winter monsoon signal since the early Holocene. Our evidence also suggests that sediment from Taiwan Island could be transported by the Kuroshio Current to the middle Okinawa Trough, where it mingles with winter monsoon-induced export of sediment from the Changjiang River and East China Sea continental shelf. Although the present research advances understanding of the evolutionary history of paleoenvironmental change in the Okinawa Trough, more sediment cores should be retrieved over wide areas to construct a larger scenario.

  5. Summary and Final Recommendations of the University System of Georgia's African-American Male Initiative.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Georgia Univ. System, Atlanta. Board of Regents.

    In 2000, the University System of Georgia (USG) verified that USG institutions enrolled a low percentage of African American males in comparison with the percentage of African American males in the state's population. In 2001, the USG developed a special funding initiative to conduct a study of barriers to the participation of African American…

  6. Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chowdary, J. S.; Chaudhari, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Suryachandra Rao, A.; Sreenivas, P.; Pokhrel, S.; Singh, P.

    2014-04-01

    This study investigates the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and their relationship with the Indian summer monsoon in the coupled general circulation model climate forecast system (CFS). The model shows good skill in simulating the impact of El Niño over the Indian Oceanic rim during its decay phase (the summer following peak phase of El Niño). Summer surface circulation patterns during the developing phase of El Niño are more influenced by local Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the model unlike in observations. Eastern TIO cooling similar to that of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a dominant model feature in summer. This anomalous SST pattern therefore is attributed to the tendency of the model to simulate more frequent IOD events. On the other hand, in the model baroclinic response to the diabatic heating anomalies induced by the El Niño related warm SSTs is weak, resulting in reduced zonal extension of the Rossby wave response. This is mostly due to weak eastern Pacific summer time SST anomalies in the model during the developing phase of El Niño as compared to observations. Both eastern TIO cooling and weak SST warming in El Niño region combined together undermine the ENSO teleconnections to the TIO and south Asia regions. The model is able to capture the spatial patterns of SST, circulation and precipitation well during the decay phase of El Niño over the Indo-western Pacific including the typical spring asymmetric mode and summer basin-wide warming in TIO. The model simulated El Niño decay one or two seasons later, resulting long persistent warm SST and circulation anomalies mainly over the southwest TIO. In response to the late decay of El Niño, Ekman pumping shows two maxima over the southern TIO. In conjunction with this unrealistic Ekman pumping, westward propagating Rossby waves display two peaks, which play key role in the long-persistence of the TIO warming in the model (for more than a

  7. Monsoons in a changing world: A regional perspective in a global context

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitoh, Akio; Endo, Hirokazu; Krishna Kumar, K.; Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.; Goswami, Prashant; Zhou, Tianjun

    2013-04-01

    provide a new view of global and regional monsoonal rainfall, and their changes in the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios as projected by 29 climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The model results show that the global monsoon area defined by the annual range in precipitation is projected to expand mainly over the central to eastern tropical Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean, and eastern Asia. The global monsoon precipitation intensity and the global monsoon total precipitation are also projected to increase. Indices of heavy precipitation are projected to increase much more than those for mean precipitation. Over the Asian monsoon domain, projected changes in extreme precipitation indices are larger than over other monsoon domains, indicating the strong sensitivity of Asian monsoon to global warming. Over the American and African monsoon regions, projected future changes in mean precipitation are rather modest, but those in precipitation extremes are large. Models project that monsoon retreat dates will delay, while onset dates will either advance or show no change, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season. However, models' limited ability to reproduce the present monsoon climate and the large scatter among the model projections limit the confidence in the results. The projected increase of the global monsoon precipitation can be attributed to an increase of moisture convergence due to increased surface evaporation and water vapor in the air column although offset to a certain extent by the weakening of the monsoon circulation.

  8. Hydrographic Processes Driven by Seasonal Monsoon System Affect Siphonophore Assemblages in Tropical-Subtropical Waters (Western North Pacific Ocean)

    PubMed Central

    Lo, Wen-Tseng; Yu, Shwu-Feng; Hsieh, Hung-Yen

    2014-01-01

    This work is a part of the Taiwan Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation, the first large scale hydrographic and plankton survey around Taiwan (21–26°N, 119–123°E). The present study examined the influence of hydrodynamic and biological variables driven by monsoon system on the siphonophore assemblages through an annual cycle in 2004. Calycophorans, namely Chelophyes appendiculata, Diphyes chamissonis, Lensia subtiloides, Bassia bassensis, and Muggiaea atlantica, were the most dominant siphonophore species. Maximum abundance of these dominant species generally occurred during the warm period (May and August), while M. atlantica had a significantly peak abundance in February. Although no apparently temporal difference in siphonophore abundance was observed in the study, siphonophore assemblage was more diverse in August than in other sampling times. Result of a cluster analysis indicated that assemblage structure of siphonophores in the waters around Taiwan varied at temporal and spatial scales during the sampling period. The intrusions of the Kuroshio Branch Current and China Coastal Current to the study area play an important role on the transportation of siphonophores. Also, the distribution of siphonophore assemblage was closely related to the hydrographic characteristics, with temperature, chlorophyll a concentration, and zooplankton abundance being the major environmental factors affecting the spatio-temporal variability of siphonophores. This study contributes substantially to the new knowledge of the siphonophore assemblage in the tropical-temperate waters of Taiwan. PMID:24932727

  9. Distribution, sources and biogeochemistry of organic matter in a mangrove dominated estuarine system (Indian Sundarbans) during the pre-monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, R.; Rixen, T.; Baum, A.; Malik, A.; Gleixner, G.; Jana, T. K.

    2015-12-01

    The sources and distribution of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the Indian Sundarbans mangrove and Hooghly estuarine system were examined during the pre-monsoon (summer) 2014. DOC is the dominant form of organic matter (OM) in the studied estuarine waters and represents a mixture of mangrove and riverine sources. Microbial degradation of land derived OM results in a high pCO2 in the Hooghly estuarine waters while enrichment in δ13C-DIC ascribes to CO2 uptake by phytoplankton in the Sundarbans water. Higher δ15N in the particulate organic nitrogen (PON) of the mangrove and marine zone could be associated with enhanced phytoplankton production sustained by nitrate from mangrove derived OM decomposition and/or nitrate imported from the Bay of Bengal. Low organic carbon contents and elemental ratios (TN/TOC) indicate an intense mineralization and transformation of OM in the sediments, resulting insignificantly different OM compositions compared to those of the three major sources: land derived OM, mangrove leaf litter (Avicennia marina) and in situ phytoplankton production.

  10. Hydrographic processes driven by seasonal monsoon system affect siphonophore assemblages in tropical-subtropical waters (western North Pacific Ocean).

    PubMed

    Lo, Wen-Tseng; Yu, Shwu-Feng; Hsieh, Hung-Yen

    2014-01-01

    This work is a part of the Taiwan Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation, the first large scale hydrographic and plankton survey around Taiwan (21-26°N, 119-123°E). The present study examined the influence of hydrodynamic and biological variables driven by monsoon system on the siphonophore assemblages through an annual cycle in 2004. Calycophorans, namely Chelophyes appendiculata, Diphyes chamissonis, Lensia subtiloides, Bassia bassensis, and Muggiaea atlantica, were the most dominant siphonophore species. Maximum abundance of these dominant species generally occurred during the warm period (May and August), while M. atlantica had a significantly peak abundance in February. Although no apparently temporal difference in siphonophore abundance was observed in the study, siphonophore assemblage was more diverse in August than in other sampling times. Result of a cluster analysis indicated that assemblage structure of siphonophores in the waters around Taiwan varied at temporal and spatial scales during the sampling period. The intrusions of the Kuroshio Branch Current and China Coastal Current to the study area play an important role on the transportation of siphonophores. Also, the distribution of siphonophore assemblage was closely related to the hydrographic characteristics, with temperature, chlorophyll a concentration, and zooplankton abundance being the major environmental factors affecting the spatio-temporal variability of siphonophores. This study contributes substantially to the new knowledge of the siphonophore assemblage in the tropical-temperate waters of Taiwan. PMID:24932727

  11. Influence of upper ocean on Indian summer monsoon rainfall: studies by observation and NCEP climate forecast system (CFSv2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Pokhrel, Samir; Rahman, H.; Dhakate, A.; Saha, Subodh K.; Pentakota, S.; Gairola, R. M.

    2016-08-01

    This study explores the role played by ocean processes in influencing Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and compares the observed findings with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-coupled model Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The excess and deficit ISMR clearly brings out the distinct signatures in sea surface height (SSH) anomaly, thermocline and mixed layer depth over north Indian Ocean. CFSv2 is successful in simulating SSH anomalies, especially over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal region. CFSv2 captures observed findings of SSH anomalies during flood and drought (e.g., Rossby wave propagation which reaches western Bay of Bengal (BoB) during flood years, Rossby wave propagation which did not reach western BoB during drought). It highlights the ability of CFSv2 to simulate the basic ocean processes which governs the SSH variability. These differences are basically generated by upwelling and downwelling caused by the equatorial and coastal Kelvin and Rossby waves, thereby causing difference in SSH anomaly and thermocline, and subsequently modifying the convection centers, which dictates precipitation over the Indian subcontinent region. Since the observed SSH anomaly and thermal structure show distinct characteristic features with respect to strong and weak ISMR variability, the assimilation of real ocean data in terms of satellite products (like SSHA from AVISO/SARAL) bestow great promise for the future improvement.

  12. Three exceptionally strong East-Asian summer monsoon events during glacial times in the past 470 kyr

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rousseau, D.-D.; Wu, N.; Pei, Y.; Li, F.

    2009-04-01

    Chinese loess sequences are interpreted as a reliable record of the past variation of the East Asian monsoon regime through the alternation of loess and paleosols units, dominated by the winter and summer monsoon, respectively. Different proxies have been used to describe this system, mostly geophysical, geochemical or sedimentological. Terrestrial mollusks are also a reliable proxy of past environmental conditions and are often preserved in large numbers in loess deposits. The analysis of the mollusk remains in the Luochuan sequence, comprising L5 loess to S0 soil, i.e. the last 500 ka, shows that for almost all identified species, the abundance is higher at the base of the interval (L5 to L4) than in the younger deposits. Using the present ecological requirements of the identified mollusk species in the Luochuan sequence allows the definition of two main mollusk groups varying during the last 500 kyr. The cold-aridiphilous individuals indicate the so-called Asian winter monsoon regime and predominantly occur during glacials, when dust is deposited. The thermal-humidiphilous mollusks are prevalent during interglacial or interstadial conditions of the Asian summer monsoon, when soil formation takes place. In the sequence, three events with exceptionally high abundance of the Asian summer monsoon indicators are recorded during the L5, L4 and L2 glacial intervals, i.e., at about 470, 360 and 170 kyr, respectively. The L5 and L4 events appear to be the strongest (high counts). Similar variations have also been identified in the Xifeng sequence, distant enough from Luochuan, but also in Lake Baikal further North, to suggest that this phenomenon is regional rather than local. The indicators of the summer monsoon within the glacial intervals imply a strengthened East-Asian monsoon interpreted as corresponding to marine isotope stages 12, 10 and 6, respectively. The L5 and L2 summer monsoons are coeval with Mediterranean sapropels S12 and S6, which characterize a strong

  13. Three exceptionally strong East-Asian summer monsoon events during glacial conditions in the past 470 kyr

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rousseau, D.-D.; Wu, N.; Pei, Y.; Li, F.

    2008-12-01

    Chinese loess sequences are interpreted as a reliable record of the past variation of the East Asian monsoon regime through the alternation of loess and paleosols units, dominated by the winter and summer monsoon, respectively. Different proxies have been used to describe this system, mostly geophysical, geochemical or sedimentological. Terrestrial mollusks are also a reliable proxy of past environmental conditions and are often preserved in large numbers in loess deposits. The analysis of the mollusk remains in the Luochuan sequence, comprising L5 loess to S0 soil, i.e. the last 500 ka, shows that for almost all identified species, the abundance is higher at the base of the interval (L5 to L4) than in the younger deposits. Using the present ecological requirements of the identified mollusk species in the Luochuan sequence allows the definition of two main mollusk groups varying during the last 500 kyr. The cold-aridiphilous individuals indicate the so-called Asian winter monsoon regime and predominantly occur during glacials, when dust is deposited. The thermal-humidiphilous mollusks are prevalent during interglacial or interstadial conditions of the Asian summer monsoon, when soil formation takes place. In the sequence, three events with exceptionally high abundance of the Asian summer monsoon indicators are recorded during the L5, L4 and L2 glacial intervals, i.e., at about 470, 360 and 170 kyr, respectively. The L5 and L4 events appear to be the strongest (high counts). Similar variations have also been identified in the Xifeng sequence, distant enough from Luochuan, but also in Lake Baikal further North, to suggest that this phenomenon is regional rather than local. The indicators of the summer monsoon within the glacial intervals imply a strengthened East-Asian monsoon interpreted as corresponding to marine isotope stages 6, 10 and 12, respectively. The L5 and L2 summer monsoons are coeval with Mediterranean sapropels S12 and S6, which characterize a strong

  14. Orbital control of the western North Pacific summer monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Chi-Hua; Chiang, John C. H.; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Lee, Shih-Yu

    2016-02-01

    Orbital forcing exerts a strong influence on global monsoon systems, with higher summer insolation leading to stronger summer monsoons in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the associated regional and seasonal changes, particularly the interaction between regional monsoon systems, remain unclear. Simulations using the Community Earth System Model demonstrate that the western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon responds to orbital forcing opposite to that of other major Northern Hemisphere monsoon systems. Compared with its current climate state, the simulated WNP monsoon and associated lower-tropospheric trough is absent in the early Holocene when the precession-modulated Northern Hemisphere summer insolation is higher, whereas the summer monsoons in South and East Asia are stronger and shift farther northward. We attribute the weaker WNP monsoon to the stronger diabatic heating of the summer Asian monsoon—in particular over the southern Tibetan Plateau and Maritime Continent—that in turn strengthens the North Pacific subtropical high through atmospheric teleconnections. By contrast, the impact of the midlatitude circulation changes on the WNP monsoon is weaker when the solar insolation is higher. Prior to the present WNP monsoon onset, the upper-tropospheric East Asian jet stream weakens and shifts northward; the monsoon onset is highly affected by the jet-induced high potential vorticity intrusion. In the instance of the extreme perihelion-summer, the WNP monsoon is suppressed despite a stronger midlatitude precursor than present-day, and the midlatitude circulation response to the enhanced South Asian precipitation is considerable. These conditions indicate internal monsoon interactions of an orbital scale, implying a potential mechanistic control of the WNP monsoon.

  15. Retrieval the statistical-dynamical model of western Pacific subtropical high ridge line index and key members of Asian summer monsoon system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Mei; Zhang, Ren; Wang, Dong; Chen, Xi; Shi, Jian; Singh, Vijay

    2014-12-01

    The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is closely correlated with the East Asian climate. To date, the underlying mechanisms and sustaining factors have not been positively elucidated. Based on the concept of dynamical system model reconstruction, this paper presents a nonlinear statistical-dynamical model of the subtropical high ridge line (SHRL) in concurrence with four summer monsoon factors. SHRL variations from 1990 to 2011 are subdivided into three categories, while parameter differences relating to three differing models are examined. Dynamical characteristics of SHRL are analyzed and an aberrance mechanism subsequently developed. Modeling suggests that different parameters may lead to significant variance pertaining to monsoon variables corresponding with numerous WPSH activities. Dynamical system bifurcation and mutation indicates that the South China Sea monsoon trough is a significant factor with respect to the occurrence and maintenance of the 'double-ridge' phenomenon. Moreover, the occurrence of the Mascarene cold high is predicted to cause an abnormal northward location of WPSH, resulting in the “empty plum” phenomenon.

  16. Timing of vegetation changes at the end of the Holocene Humid Period in desert areas at the northern edge of the Atlantic and Indian monsoon systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lézine, Anne-Marie

    2009-08-01

    This article aims at discussing the ecological response of the terrestrial and fresh water dependant environments to the installation of arid conditions at the end of the Holocene Humid Period in the Atlantic and Indian monsoon domains. It is mainly focused on dry environments from Chad, Oman and Pakistan where new, high-resolution pollen sequences have been provided. Pollen data show that local hydrological conditions have played a major role in the destruction or survival of tropical tree populations at the end of the Holocene Humid Period, as well as partly explaining the asynchronous pattern of recorded environmental changes in most tropical regions. In desert areas, the response of the fresh water dependant systems to the shift from humid to arid climate conditions appears to have followed a threshold-like pattern. In contrast, terrestrial ecosystems have gradually adapted to increased drought, as shown by the progressive decrease of tropical tree species at Yoa or the gradual expansion in dry plant types in Oman and Pakistan from 6000 cal yrs BP to the present. A remarkable synchroneity in environmental change is recorded at the northern edge of the Atlantic and Indian monsoon systems, with the extreme end of the Holocene Humid Period corresponding to the last occurrence of tropical trees in the desert and the last record of prolonged SW monsoon rainfall over north-western Asia around 4700-4500 cal yrs BP.

  17. Coherent monsoonal changes in the northern tropics revealed by Chadian lakes (L. Chad and Yoa) sedimentary archives during the African Humid Period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sylvestre, Florence; Kroepelin, Stefan; Pierre, Deschamps; Christine, Cocquyt; Nicolas, Waldmann; Kazuyo, Tachikawa; Amaral Paula, Do; Doriane, Delanghe; Guillaume, Jouve; Edouard, Bard; Camille, Bouchez; Jean-Claude, Doumnang; Jean-Charles, Mazur; Martin, Melles; Guillemette, Menot; Frauke, Rostek; Nicolas, Thouveny; Volkner, Wennrich

    2016-04-01

    In northern African tropics, it is now well established that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was extremely dry followed by a wetter Holocene. Numerous palaeolake records reveal a fairly consistent pattern of a moister early Holocene resulting in a green Sahara followed by the onset of aridification about 4000 years ago. These palaeoenvironmental conditions are deciphered from several continental records distributed over the sub-Saharan zone and including diverse environments. However, pronounced differences in the timing and amplitude of these moisture changes inferred from sedimentary records point to both regional climatic variability change and site-specific influences of local topographic-hydrogeological factors which biased the evolution of water balance reconstructed from individual lacustrine archives. Here we present hydrological reconstructions from Chadian lakes, i.e. Lake Chad (c. 13°N) and Lake Yoa (19°N). Because of their location, both records allow to reconstruct lake level fluctuations and environmental changes according to a gradient from Sahelian to Saharan latitudes. Whereas Lake Chad is considered as a good sensor of climatic changes because of its large drainage basin covering 610,000 km2 in the Sudanian belt, Lake Yoa logs the northern precipitation changes in the Sahara. Combining sedimentological (laser diffraction grain size) and geochemical (XRF analysis) data associated with bio-indicators proxies (diatoms, pollen), we compare lake-level fluctuations and environmental changes during the last 12,000 years. After the hyperarid Last Glacial Maximum period during which dunes covered the Lake Chad basin, both lake records indicate an onset of more humid conditions between 12.5-11 ka cal BP. These resulted in lacustrine transgressions approaching their maximum extension at c. 10.5 ka cal BP. The lacustrine phase was probably interrupted by a relatively short drying event occurring around 8.2 ka cal BP which is well-defined in Lake Yoa by

  18. Trade in Educational Services: Reflections on the African and South African Higher Education System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sehoole, Chika Trevor

    2004-01-01

    This article discusses and analyses the emergence of globalisation and its impact on developments within the African continent. Africa's response at a regional level through the New Partnership for Africa's Development and at a subregional level through the Southern African Development Community's "Protocol on Education" come under scrutiny. These…

  19. Associations between Central Nervous System Serotonin, Fasting Glucose and Hostility in African American Females

    PubMed Central

    Boyle, Stephen H.; Georgiades, Anastasia; Brummett, Beverly H.; Barefoot, John C.; Siegler, Ilene C.; Matson, Wayne R.; Kuhn, Cynthia M.; Grichnik, Katherine; Stafford-Smith, Mark; Williams, Redford B.; Kaddurah-Daouk, Rima; Surwit, Richard S.

    2015-01-01

    Background Previous research has shown an association between hostility and fasting glucose in African American women. Central nervous system serotonin activity is implicated both in metabolic processes and in hostility related traits. Purpose To determine whether central nervous system serotonin influences the association between hostility and fasting glucose in African American women. Methods The study consisted of 119 healthy volunteers (36 African American women, 27 white women, 21 white males, and 35 African American males, mean age 34±8.5 years). Serotonin metabolites were measured in cerebrospinal fluid. Hostility was measured by the Cook-Medley Hostility Scale. Results Hostility was associated with fasting glucose and central nervous system serotonin metabolites in African American women only. Controlling for the serotonin metabolites significantly reduced the association of hostility to glucose. Conclusions The positive correlation between hostility and fasting glucose in African American women can partly be explained by central nervous system serotonin function. PMID:24806470

  20. Three dimensional characteristics of precipitating cloud systems observed during Indian summer monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Shailendra

    2016-09-01

    Ten year of TRMM PR data is used to study the properties of the precipitating cloud systems over Indian land and ocean areas. TRMM PR reflectivity information is often displayed in three dimensions, making it excellent for study the three dimensional characteristics of precipitating cloud systems. A cloud system (CS) is defined by connecting pixels of more than 17 dBZ, with at least one pixel must be higher than 40 dBZ. Within the CSs two types of cloud cells are defined, namely most vigorous cell (MVC) and reflectivity profile for cloud (RPC) for informing the vertical structure of precipitation. Most vigorous cell contains the maximum Ze at each altitude from the CSs, whereas the RPC consists of the vertical extension of Ze ⩾ 40 dBZ at any altitude. Area covered by different reflectivity thresholds (30, 35 and 40 dBZ), and analysis of three dimensional cloud vertical structure show the evolution characteristics of cloud systems. Vertical structure of precipitation shows higher regional differences compared to cloud area and evolution of clouds. Head of Bay consists higher number of precipitating cloud systems. Land areas show the intense cloud systems compared to oceanic areas and on an average, precipitation intensity is least over Arabian Sea and highest over central India. Probability of warm rain is higher over Western Ghats and Arabian Sea. Between 5 and 10 km altitude, reflectivity values show 5 dBZ difference in MVC and RPC. Western Ghats shows higher reflectivity value above 12 km altitude and matches with land dominated areas. Land dominated area shows higher fraction of deep clouds. Almost 50% MVCs cross 10 km altitude over land dominated areas whereas only 20% MVCs are crossing the 10 km altitude over Arabian Sea. Maximum height of 30 and 40 dBZ consist the lower mode over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal compared to land dominated areas. Small cloud systems consist higher area of intense precipitation (higher values of Ze) and as the area of cloud

  1. Latitudinal gradients in tree ring stable carbon and oxygen isotopes reveal differential climate influences of the North American Monsoon System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szejner, Paul; Wright, William E.; Babst, Flurin; Belmecheri, Soumaya; Trouet, Valerie; Leavitt, Steven W.; Ehleringer, James R.; Monson, Russell K.

    2016-07-01

    The arrival of the North American Monsoon System (NAMS) terminates a presummer hyperarid period in the southwestern United States (U.S.), providing summer moisture that is favorable for forest growth. Montane forests in this region rely on winter snowpack to drive much of their growth; the extent to which they use NAMS moisture is uncertain. We addressed this by studying stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in earlywood and latewood from 11 sites along a latitudinal gradient extending from Arizona and New Mexico to Utah. This study provides the first regional perspective on the relative roles of winter versus summer precipitation as an ecophysiological resource. Here we present evidence that Ponderosa pine uses NAMS moisture differentially across this gradient. 13C/12C ratios suggest that photosynthetic water use efficiency during latewood formation is more sensitive to summer precipitation at the northern than at the southern sites. This is likely due to the fact that NAMS moisture provides sufficiently favorable conditions for tree photosynthesis and growth during most years in the southern sites, whereas the northern sites experience larger summer moisture variability, which in some years is limiting growth. Cellulose δ18O and δ13C values revealed that photoassimilates in the southern sites were produced under higher vapor pressure deficit conditions during spring compared to summer, demonstrating a previously underappreciated effect of seasonal differences in atmospheric humidity on tree ring isotope ratios. Our findings suggest that future changes in NAMS will potentially alter productivity and photosynthetic water use dynamics differentially along latitudinal gradients in southwestern U.S. montane forests.

  2. African Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Relevance of Higher Education in South Africa

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaya, Hassan O.; Seleti, Yonah N.

    2013-01-01

    The higher education system in Africa and South Africa in particular, is still too academic and distant from the developmental challenges of African local communities. The integration of African indigenous knowledge systems (AIKS) into the higher educational system could improve its relevance. This is due to the holistic, community-based nature…

  3. A hemispheric climatology of monsoon depressions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurley, J. V.; Boos, W.

    2012-12-01

    Monsoon depressions are large (1000-2000 km diameter) cyclonic low pressure systems having organized deep convection, best known for forming in the Bay of Bengal and migrating northwest over northern India in the monsoon trough. About 3 to 5 of these systems occur during each monsoon season, contributing about half of the Indian summer rainfall. Despite their importance as a precipitation source, their dynamics are poorly constrained. Furthermore, although they do occur elsewhere, such as around Australia and in the southern Indian Ocean, there does not exist a collective inventory of these systems outside of the Bay of Bengal region. Here we present a climatology of monsoon depressions produced from the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. Feature tracks are identified using an automated tracking algorithm (K. Hodges' TRACK code) applied to the 850 hPa relative vorticity field for local summer, 1989 to 2003. Using criteria based on relative vorticity and sea level pressure, cyclonic low pressure systems are separated into different intensity categories, one of which corresponds to the definition for monsoon depressions used by the India Meteorological Department. The resultant distribution of storms obtained for the Bay of Bengal region compares well with a previously compiled climatology of monsoon depressions that was limited to the region surrounding India. Having validated our ability to identify monsoon depressions in their classic genesis region near India, we then extend the methods to include the western Pacific, Australia, and the southern Indian Ocean. Track distributions and composite structures of monsoon depressions for these different regions will be presented.

  4. Monsoon harvests: the living legacies of rainwater harvesting systems in South India.

    PubMed

    Van Meter, Kimberly J; Basu, Nandita B; Tate, Eric; Wyckoff, Joseph

    2014-04-15

    Rainwater harvesting, a "soft path" approach toward water management, is increasingly recognized as a key strategy toward ensuring food security and alleviating problems of water scarcity. Interestingly this "modern" approach has been in use for millennia in numerous older civilizations. This article uses India as a case study to explore the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of agricultural rainwater harvesting ponds, and evaluates the viability of these centuries-old systems under current climate and population pressures. A holistic watershed-scale approach that accounts for trade-offs in water availability and socioeconomic wellbeing is recommended for assessing the sustainability of these systems.

  5. Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions

    PubMed Central

    Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Held, Hermann

    2009-01-01

    Monsoon systems influence the livelihood of hundreds of millions of people. During the Holocene and last glacial period, rainfall in India and China has undergone strong and abrupt changes. Though details of monsoon circulations are complicated, observations reveal a defining moisture-advection feedback that dominates the seasonal heat balance and might act as an internal amplifier, leading to abrupt changes in response to relatively weak external perturbations. Here we present a minimal conceptual model capturing this positive feedback. The basic equations, motivated by observed relations, yield a threshold behavior, robust with respect to addition of other physical processes. Below this threshold in net radiative influx, R c, no conventional monsoon can develop; above R c, two stable regimes exist. We identify a nondimensional parameter l that defines the threshold and makes monsoon systems comparable with respect to the character of their abrupt transition. This dynamic similitude may be helpful in understanding past and future variations in monsoon circulation. Within the restrictions of the model, we compute R c for current monsoon systems in India, China, the Bay of Bengal, West Africa, North America, and Australia, where moisture advection is the main driver of the circulation. PMID:19858472

  6. Interdecadal variability of El Niño onset and its impact on monsoon systems over areas encircling the Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Jiaxi; Xu, Jianjun; Guan, Zhaoyong; Powell, Alfred M.

    2016-10-01

    Based on previous study by Xu and Chan (J Clim 14:418-433, 2001), two types of El Niño distinguished by the onset time, a Spring (SP) type and a Summer (SU) type, have been investigated from 1871 through 2011. As can be classified by the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomaly into the Warm Pool (WP) and Cold Tongue (CT) El Niño, the temporal features of the CT are dominated by the SP events whereas the SU events mostly display the spatial pattern of WP or Mixed events. The approximate 140-year data analysis shows that the frequency of SP events tends to increase in the most recent 30 years (1980-2009) while the SU events show very strong activity in the beginning of the twentieth century (1900-1929), which are closely associated with the decadal changes in oceanic and atmospheric background conditions. The air-sea processes indicate that the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between tropical and extratropical Pacific Ocean on decadal time scales is related to the sea level pressure distribution, which tends to produce wind anomalies. The wind anomalies in turn affect the SST anomalies on inter-annual time scales over the equatorial areas and finally result in the early onset of El Niño in SP time or late onset of El Nino in SU time. A spring onset El Niño favors a Kelvin wave that propagates across the basin and a summer onset favors a Kelvin wave that does not traverse the basin or the related effects are not strong enough. The early or late onset of El Niño significantly impacts the precipitation distribution correlated with the monsoon systems including the Asian-Australian monsoon and North-South American monsoon. The El Niño-monsoon relationship is modulated by decadal changes in atmospheric and oceanic background conditions. The precipitation in the monsoonal area circling the Pacific Ocean exhibits characteristic quasi-biennial variations that are closely associated with the onset time of El Niño events, especially with

  7. The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment: A New Challenge to Monsoon Climate Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2008-01-01

    Aerosol and monsoon related droughts and floods are two of the most serious environmental hazards confronting more than 60% of the population of the world living in the Asian monsoon countries. In recent years, thanks to improved satellite and in-situ observations, and better models, great strides have been made in aerosol, and monsoon research respectively. There is now a growing body of evidence suggesting that interaction of aerosol forcing with water cycle dynamics in monsoon regions may substantially alter the redistribution of energy at the earth surface and in the atmosphere, and therefore significantly impact monsoon rainfall variability and long term trends. In this talk, I will describe issues related to societal needs, scientific background, and challenges in studies of aerosol-water cycle interaction in Asian monsoon regions. As a first step towards addressing these issues, the authors call for an integrated observation and modeling research approach aimed at the interactions between aerosol chemistry and radiative effects and monsoon dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. A Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is proposed for 2007-2011, with an enhanced observation period during 2008-09, encompassing diverse arrays of observations from surface, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites of physical and chemical properties of aerosols, long range aerosol transport as well as meteorological and oceanographic parameters in the Indo-Pacific Asian monsoon region. JAMEX will leverage on coordination among many ongoing and planned national programs on aerosols and monsoon research in China, India, Japan, Nepal, Italy, US, as well as international research programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

  8. Convection pattern and stress system under the African plate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, H.-S.

    1977-01-01

    Studies on tectonic forces from satellite-derived gravity data have revealed a subcrustal stress system which provides a unifying mechanism for uplift, depression, rifting, plate motion and ore formation in Africa. The subcrustal stresses are due to mantle convection. Seismicity, volcanicity and kimberlite magmatism in Africa and the development of the African tectonic and magnetic features are explained in terms of this single stress system. The tensional stress fields in the crust exerted by the upwelling mantle flows are shown to be regions of structural kinship characterized by major concentration of mineral deposits. It is probable that the space techniques are capable of detecting and determining the tectonic forces in the crust of Africa.

  9. A solar variability driven monsoon see-saw: switching relationships of the Holocene East Asian-Australian summer monsoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eroglu, Deniz; Ozken, Ibrahim; McRobie, Fiona; Stemler, Thomas; Marwan, Norbert; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Kurths, Juergen

    2016-04-01

    The East Asian-Indonesian-Australian monsoon is the predominant low latitude monsoon system, providing a major global scale heat source. Here we apply newly developed non-linear time series techniques on speleothem climate proxies, from eastern China and northwestern Australia and establish relationships between the two summer monsoon regimes over the last ˜9000 years. We identify significant variations in monsoonal activity, both dry and wet phases, at millennial to multi-centennial time scales and demonstrate for the first time the existence of a see-saw antiphase relationship between the two regional monsoon systems. Our analysis attributes this inter-hemispheric linkage to the solar variability that is effecting both monsoon systems.

  10. Global climate and monsoons response to orbital forcing in the Late Miocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzocchi, A.; Lunt, D. J.; Flecker, R.; Farnsworth, A.; Bradshaw, C.

    2014-12-01

    Global climate during the Late Miocene (11.61-5.33 Ma) is thought to have been generally warmer and wetter than at present day. The Northern Hemisphere was characterised by nearly ice-free conditions (with respect to the extent of the Greenland ice sheet) and some of the main marine gateways were undergoing opening or closure (e.g. Central American gateway, Bering Strait, and Indonesian Throughflow). Vegetation distribution was also generally more extensive than it is today, both at high and low latitudes. There is geological evidence of orbitally-forced cyclicity in sedimentary sections throughout the globe, especially in marginal basins such as the Mediterranean Sea. In the Late Miocene the entire North African catchment drained in the Eastern Mediterranean, constituting the main fresh water input into the basin, regulated by the North African monsoon. In addition, the Tibetan Plateau underwent substantial uplift throughout this time period, which strengthened the Asian monsoon system. The Late Miocene therefore represents an ideal scenario to investigate the impact of orbital forcing on the North African and Asian monsoon systems, the establishment of their teleconnections, and the associated vegetation changes. There still is considerable uncertainty in the reconstructed atmospheric CO2 levels for this time period, due to the patchy distribution (both spatially and temporally) of the available proxy record. Hence, we also explore the sensitivity of global climate to changing CO2 levels with different orbital configurations. We carried out a new series of 22 fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation numerical simulations, run at evenly spaced intervals (1kyr) through a full late Miocene precession cycle (~6.5 Ma), using a full-complexity general circulation model (HadCM3L). These model results show substantial changes to sea surface temperatures and regional atmospheric circulation on sub-precessional time scales. This triggers responses in the North African and

  11. Changes in extreme rainfall over South-East Asia and their link to the monsoon system in 21th century from CMIP5 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freychet, N.; Chou, C.; Hsu, H.; Wu, C.

    2013-12-01

    The South-East Asia is well known for its recurrent heavy rainfall, either due to typhoons or monsoon systems. In a global warming scenario, extreme rainfall are expected to increase, both in intensity and frequency, because of the increase in air moisture. This increase often comes along with an augmentation of dry days frequency, indicating that the atmospheric water is released less frequently but more intensively. This can be explained by a rise of mid-level troposphere temperature, which increase the required CAPE for convection. Several studies already pointed out this aspect with the CMIP3 results. Here we investigate the change in extreme rainfall (i.e. the 99th percentile of precipitation) over South-East Asia, using the CMIP5 daily results. We compare the mean long term trend (i.e. the mean of 30 years at the end of the 21th century forecast), with the average of 30 years from historical runs. We do not only perform global statistical analysis, but we mainly look at the spatial pattern of changes, along with the modification of the monsoon system in this region. We also investigate the seasonal and monthly signal of changes. This study focus on rainfall over lands only, because of their possible social and economic impacts. The results show first a wild range between models regarding their sensitivity to the global warming. In the mean, they all show an increase in extreme rainfall. But the range of the change in intensity goes from 0 to 50 percent (increase), which point out great uncertainties. In all the models, the extreme rainfall increase much faster than the average precipitation. This increase is weaker during winter (about 10%) and stronger during summer (30%), characterizing an intensification in the monsoon system. This also means that the inter-seasonal signal should increase by the end of the century. The monsoon is not affected uniformly. We observe intra-seasonal variation, with enhance or decrease in winds velocities, and also differences

  12. Monsoon abrupt change and its dominant factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Qiang; Fu, Conbin

    2010-05-01

    Abrupt changes of monsoon are apparent in the geological record of climate over various timescales. During Holocene and last glacial period, rainfall in India and China has undergone strong and abrupt changes. In this context, we regard monsoon as dissipative system, which has many characteristic times, to contrive various factors and corresponding mechanism dominated in monsoon's abrupt change. The abrupt change of monsoon over inter-decadal to century timescales may be resulting from different fluctuation's competition, which impose on the inner basic physic processes. In order to find out the key factors which control the monsoon's abrupt change, starting from the seminar works by Leith, who proposed to employ the Fluctuation-dissipation Response theory(FDR) to study the response of climatic systems to changes in the external forcing, many authors applied this relation to different geophysical problems, ranging from simplified models to general circulation models and to the covariance of satellite radiance spectra. The FDR has been originally developed in the framework of statistical mechanics of Hamiltonian systems, nevertheless a generalized FDR holds under rather general hypotheses, regardless of the Hamiltonian, or equilibrium nature of the system. Our work verify the FDR theory' applicability in monsoon systems, which demonstrates that it can reveal clear and fundamental factors that control monsoon's abrupt change. By making use of FDR theory, combined with observational data analysis, we have already seen how monsoon systems with many characteristics times, different correlation functions behave differently and a variety of timescales emerges, which correspond to the different decay times of the correlation functions. Via theoretical and data analysis, it is suggested that each monsoon system has experienced several significant abrupt changes in 20th century. The global main monsoon rainfall has undergone an obvious abrupt jump in the mid- and late 1970s

  13. Energetics and monsoon bifurcations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2016-04-01

    Monsoons involve increases in dry static energy (DSE), with primary contributions from increased shortwave radiation and condensation of water vapor, compensated by DSE export via horizontal fluxes in monsoonal circulations. We introduce a simple box-model characterizing evolution of the DSE budget to study nonlinear dynamics of steady-state monsoons. Horizontal fluxes of DSE are stabilizing during monsoons, exporting DSE and hence weakening the monsoonal circulation. By contrast latent heat addition (LHA) due to condensation of water vapor destabilizes, by increasing the DSE budget. These two factors, horizontal DSE fluxes and LHA, are most strongly dependent on the contrast in tropospheric mean temperature between land and ocean. For the steady-state DSE in the box-model to be stable, the DSE flux should depend more strongly on the temperature contrast than LHA; stronger circulation then reduces DSE and thereby restores equilibrium. We present conditions for this to occur. The main focus of the paper is describing conditions for bifurcation behavior of simple models. Previous authors presented a minimal model of abrupt monsoon transitions and argued that such behavior can be related to a positive feedback called the `moisture advection feedback'. However, by accounting for the effect of vertical lapse rate of temperature on the DSE flux, we show that bifurcations are not a generic property of such models despite these fluxes being nonlinear in the temperature contrast. We explain the origin of this behavior and describe conditions for a bifurcation to occur. This is illustrated for the case of the July-mean monsoon over India. The default model with mean parameter estimates does not contain a bifurcation, but the model admits bifurcation as parameters are varied.

  14. Indigenous African Knowledge Systems and Innovation in Higher Education in South Africa

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Higgs, P.; Higgs, L. G.; Venter, E.

    2003-01-01

    The importance of innovation in higher education is recognised in South African educational discourse. The South African White Paper on Science and Technology, issued in September 1996 and entitled, "Preparing for the 21st Century", states that, "the White Paper is built upon the twin concepts of "innovation" and a "national system of innovation"…

  15. Unheard and Unseen: How Housing Insecure African American Adolescents Experience the Education System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ellis, Addie Lucille; Geller, Kathy D.

    2016-01-01

    This narrative study is based on stories told by African American adolescents experiencing homelessness. It offers insights into their lived experiences and describes the challenges faced in negotiating the urban education system. African American youth are disproportionately represented in the adolescent homeless demographic. "Unheard and…

  16. Prediction of Indian summer monsoon in short to medium range time scale with high resolution global forecast system (GFS) T574 and T382

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durai, V. R.; Roy Bhowmik, S. K.

    2014-03-01

    Performance of national centers for environmental prediction based global forecast system (GFS) T574/L64 and GFS T382/L64 over Indian region has been evaluated for the summer monsoon season of 2011. The real-time model outputs are generated daily at India Meteorological Department, New Delhi for the forecasts up to 7 days. Verification of rainfall forecasts has been carried out against observed rainfall analysis. Performance of the model is also examined in terms of lower tropospheric wind circulation, vertical structure of specific humidity and precipitable water content. Case study of a monsoon depression is also illustrated. Results obtained show that, in general, both the GFS T382 and T574 forecasts are skillful to capture climatologically heavy rainfall regions. However, the accuracy in prediction of location and magnitude of rainfall fluctuates considerably. The verification results, at the spatial scale of 50 km resolution, in a regional spatial scale and country as a whole, in terms of continuous skill score, time series and categorical statistics, have demonstrated superiority of GFS T574 against T382 over Indian region. Both the model shows bias of lower tropospheric drying and upper tropospheric moistening. A bias of anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower tropospheric level lay over the central India, where rainfall as well as precipitable water content shows negative bias. Considerable differences between GFS T574 and T382 are noticed in the structure of model bias in terms of lower tropospheric wind circulation, vertical structure of specific humidity and precipitable water contents. The magnitude of error for these parameters increases with forecast lead time in both GFS T574 and T382. The results documented are expected to be useful to the forecasters, monsoon researchers and modeling community.

  17. Indigenous Systems within the African-American Community

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marbley, Aretha Faye; Rouson, Leon

    2011-01-01

    For the African-American family, life ain't been no crystal stair. The African-American family has trotted for over 400 years through a wilderness of racism, poverty, discrimination of all kinds, crossing seas of monsters and forests of demons. Yet, despite the numerous obstacles and attacks that society has mounted against it since slavery, the…

  18. Mapping of the major structures of the African rift system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mohr, P. A. (Principal Investigator)

    1973-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery of the African rift system has already proved of great value in structural geological studies. One of the interesting megastructures expressed on the imagery occurs some 40 km east of the eastern margin of the main Ethiopian rift, in Arussi province, and extending between latitude 71/2 and 81/4 deg N. The Badda-Encuolo ridge proves to have been a line of major Tertiary volcanism and probably supplied the thick Trap Series flood basalt sequence exposed farther east in the canyons of the Webi Shebeli drainage system. The ridge itself was built up by the waning activity of the Sagatu line of volcanism. Serendipitious has been the discovery on Mt. Badda of several deeply glaciated valleys, many of which show clearly on the ERTS-1 imagery. It seems that Mt. Badda was one of the most important glacial centers in eastern Africa during the Pleistocene. Three major late-Tertiary trachytic centers lie between the Badda-Encuolo ridge and the rift valley. The relationships of these three volcanoes to each other and to the rift faulting is revealed for the first time by the ERTS-1 imagery, as is the form of the cladera of Baltata and the crater of Chilalo.

  19. Regional view of a Trans-African Drainage System

    PubMed Central

    Abdelkareem, Mohamed; El-Baz, Farouk

    2014-01-01

    Despite the arid to hyperarid climate of the Great Sahara of North Africa, pluvial climates dominated the region. Radar data shed some light on the postulated Trans-African Drainage System and its relationship to active and inactive tributaries of the Nile basin. Interpretations of recent elevation data confirm a source of the river water from the Red Sea highlands did not connect the Atlantic Ocean across Tushka basin, highlands of Uwinate and Darfur, and Chad basin, but northward to the ancestral Nile Delta. Elements of topography and climate were considered. They show that the former segments of the Nile closely mirror present-day tributaries of the Nile basin in drainage geometry, landscape, and climate. A rainfall data interpolation scenario revealed that this basin received concurrent runoff from both flanks such as Gabgaba-Allaqi to the east and Tushka basin to the west, similar to present-day Sobat and White Nile tributaries, respectively. Overall the western tributaries such as those of Tushka basin and Howar lead to the Nile, which was (and still is) the biggest river system in Africa. PMID:26257941

  20. Stable isotopes in monsoon precipitation and water vapour in Nagqu, Tibet, and their implications for monsoon moisture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Siyuan; Richards, Keith

    2016-09-01

    Understanding climate variations over the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau has become essential because the high plateau sustains various ecosystems and water sources, and impacts on the Asian monsoon system. This paper provides new information from isotopic signals in meteoric water and atmospheric water vapour on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau using high frequency observation data over a relatively short period. The aim is to explore temporal moisture changes and annual variations at the onset and during the summer monsoon season at a transitional site with respect to the monsoon influence. Data show that high frequency and short period observations can reveal typical moisture changes from the pre-monsoon to the monsoon seasons (2010), and the large variation in isotopic signals in different years with respect to active/inactive periods during a mature phase of the monsoon (2011), especially inferring from the temporal changes in the d-excess of precipitation and its relationship with δ18O values, when higher d-excess is found in the pre-monsoon precipitation. In this transition zone on a daily basis, δ18O values in precipitation are controlled mainly by the amount of rainfall during the monsoon season, while temperature seems more important before the onset of monsoon. Furthermore, the "amount effect" is significant for night-time rain events. From comparison of signals in both the precipitation and water vapour, an inconsistent relationship between d-excess values suggests various moisture fluxes are active in a short period. The temporal pattern of isotopic signal change from the onset of the monsoon to the mature monsoon phase provides information about the larger circulation dynamics of the Asian monsoon.

  1. I too, am America: a review of research on systemic lupus erythematosus in African-Americans.

    PubMed

    Williams, Edith M; Bruner, Larisa; Adkins, Alyssa; Vrana, Caroline; Logan, Ayaba; Kamen, Diane; Oates, James C

    2016-01-01

    Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a multi-organ autoimmune disorder that can cause significant morbidity and mortality. A large body of evidence has shown that African-Americans experience the disease more severely than other racial-ethnic groups. Relevant literature for the years 2000 to August 2015 were obtained from systematic searches of PubMed, Scopus, and the EBSCOHost platform that includes MEDLINE, CINAHL, etc. to evaluate research focused on SLE in African-Americans. Thirty-six of the 1502 articles were classified according to their level of evidence. The systematic review of the literature reported a wide range of adverse outcomes in African-American SLE patients and risk factors observed in other mono and multi-ethnic investigations. Studies limited to African-Americans with SLE identified novel methods for more precise ascertainment of risk and observed novel findings that hadn't been previously reported in African-Americans with SLE. Both environmental and genetic studies included in this review have highlighted unique African-American populations in an attempt to isolate risk attributable to African ancestry and observed increased genetic influence on overall disease in this cohort. The review also revealed emerging research in areas of quality of life, race-tailored interventions, and self-management. This review reemphasizes the importance of additional studies to better elucidate the natural history of SLE in African-Americans and optimize therapeutic strategies for those who are identified as being at high risk. PMID:27651918

  2. I too, am America: a review of research on systemic lupus erythematosus in African-Americans

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Edith M; Bruner, Larisa; Adkins, Alyssa; Vrana, Caroline; Logan, Ayaba; Kamen, Diane; Oates, James C

    2016-01-01

    Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a multi-organ autoimmune disorder that can cause significant morbidity and mortality. A large body of evidence has shown that African-Americans experience the disease more severely than other racial-ethnic groups. Relevant literature for the years 2000 to August 2015 were obtained from systematic searches of PubMed, Scopus, and the EBSCOHost platform that includes MEDLINE, CINAHL, etc. to evaluate research focused on SLE in African-Americans. Thirty-six of the 1502 articles were classified according to their level of evidence. The systematic review of the literature reported a wide range of adverse outcomes in African-American SLE patients and risk factors observed in other mono and multi-ethnic investigations. Studies limited to African-Americans with SLE identified novel methods for more precise ascertainment of risk and observed novel findings that hadn't been previously reported in African-Americans with SLE. Both environmental and genetic studies included in this review have highlighted unique African-American populations in an attempt to isolate risk attributable to African ancestry and observed increased genetic influence on overall disease in this cohort. The review also revealed emerging research in areas of quality of life, race-tailored interventions, and self-management. This review reemphasizes the importance of additional studies to better elucidate the natural history of SLE in African-Americans and optimize therapeutic strategies for those who are identified as being at high risk.

  3. I too, am America: a review of research on systemic lupus erythematosus in African-Americans

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Edith M; Bruner, Larisa; Adkins, Alyssa; Vrana, Caroline; Logan, Ayaba; Kamen, Diane; Oates, James C

    2016-01-01

    Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a multi-organ autoimmune disorder that can cause significant morbidity and mortality. A large body of evidence has shown that African-Americans experience the disease more severely than other racial-ethnic groups. Relevant literature for the years 2000 to August 2015 were obtained from systematic searches of PubMed, Scopus, and the EBSCOHost platform that includes MEDLINE, CINAHL, etc. to evaluate research focused on SLE in African-Americans. Thirty-six of the 1502 articles were classified according to their level of evidence. The systematic review of the literature reported a wide range of adverse outcomes in African-American SLE patients and risk factors observed in other mono and multi-ethnic investigations. Studies limited to African-Americans with SLE identified novel methods for more precise ascertainment of risk and observed novel findings that hadn't been previously reported in African-Americans with SLE. Both environmental and genetic studies included in this review have highlighted unique African-American populations in an attempt to isolate risk attributable to African ancestry and observed increased genetic influence on overall disease in this cohort. The review also revealed emerging research in areas of quality of life, race-tailored interventions, and self-management. This review reemphasizes the importance of additional studies to better elucidate the natural history of SLE in African-Americans and optimize therapeutic strategies for those who are identified as being at high risk. PMID:27651918

  4. Multi-Satellite Synergy for Aerosol Analysis in the Asian Monsoon Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ichoku, Charles; Petrenko, Maksym

    2012-01-01

    Atmospheric aerosols represent one of the greatest uncertainties in environmental and climate research, particularly in tropical monsoon regions such as the Southeast Asian regions, where significant contributions from a variety of aerosol sources and types is complicated by unstable atmospheric dynamics. Although aerosols are now routinely retrieved from multiple satellite Sensors, in trying to answer important science questions about aerosol distribution, properties, and impacts, researchers often rely on retrievals from only one or two sensors, thereby running the risk of incurring biases due to sensor/algorithm peculiarities. We are conducting detailed studies of aerosol retrieval uncertainties from various satellite sensors (including Terra-/ Aqua-MODIS, Terra-MISR, Aura-OMI, Parasol-POLDER, SeaWiFS, and Calipso-CALIOP), based on the collocation of these data products over AERONET and other important ground stations, within the online Multi-sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System (MAPSS) framework that was developed recently. Such analyses are aimed at developing a synthesis of results that can be utilized in building reliable unified aerosol information and climate data records from multiple satellite measurements. In this presentation, we will show preliminary results of. an integrated comparative uncertainly analysis of aerosol products from multiple satellite sensors, particularly focused on the Asian Monsoon region, along with some comparisons from the African Monsoon region.

  5. Asian Eocene monsoons as revealed by leaf architectural signatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spicer, Robert A.; Yang, Jian; Herman, Alexei B.; Kodrul, Tatiana; Maslova, Natalia; Spicer, Teresa E. V.; Aleksandrova, Galina; Jin, Jianhua

    2016-09-01

    The onset and development of the Asian monsoon systems is a topic that has attracted considerable research effort but proxy data limitations, coupled with a diversity of definitions and metrics characterizing monsoon phenomena, have generated much debate. Failure of geological proxies to yield metrics capable of distinguishing between rainfall seasonality induced by migrations of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from that attributable to topographically modified seasonal pressure reversals has frustrated attempts to understand mechanisms underpinning monsoon development and dynamics. Here we circumvent the use of such single climate parameter metrics in favor of detecting directly the distinctive attributes of different monsoon regimes encoded in leaf fossils. Leaf form adapts to the prevailing climate, particularly under the extreme seasonal stresses imposed by monsoons, so it is likely that fossil leaves carry a unique signature of past monsoon regimes. Leaf form trait spectra obtained from fossils from Eocene basins in southern China were compared with those seen in modern leaves growing under known climate regimes. The fossil leaf trait spectra, including those derived from previously published fossil floras from northwestern India, were most similar to those found in vegetation exposed to the modern Indonesia-Australia Monsoon (I-AM), which is largely a product of seasonal migrations of the ITCZ. The presence of this distinctive leaf physiognomic signature suggests that although a monsoon climate existed in Eocene time across southern Asia the characteristics of the modern topographically-enhanced South Asia Monsoon had yet to develop. By the Eocene leaves in South Asia had become well adapted to an I-AM type regime across many taxa and points to the existence of a pervasive monsoon climate prior to the Eocene. No fossil trait spectra typical of exposure to the modern East Asia monsoon were seen, suggesting the effects of this system in southern

  6. Reducing uncertainty in nitrogen budgets for African livestock systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rufino, M. C.; Brandt, P.; Herrero, M.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.

    2014-10-01

    Livestock is poorly represented in N budgets for the African continent although some studies have examined livestock-related N flows at different levels. Livestock plays an important role in N cycling and therefore on N budgets including livestock-related flows. This study reviews the literature on N budgets for Africa to identify factors contributing to uncertainties. Livestock densities are usually modelled because of the lack of observational spatial data. Even though feed availability and quality varies across seasons, most studies use constant livestock excretion rates, and excreta are usually assumed to be uniformly distributed onto the land. Major uncertainties originate in the fraction of manure managed, and emission factors which may not reflect the situation of Africa. N budgets use coarse assumptions on production, availability, and use of crop residues as livestock feed. No flows between croplands-livestock and rangelands reflect the lack of data. Joint efforts are needed for spatial data collection of livestock data, crowdsourcing appears to be a promising option. The focus of the assessment of N budgets must go beyond croplands to include livestock and crop-livestock flows. We propose a nested systems definition of livestock systems to link local, regional level, and continental level and to increase the usefulness of point measurements of N losses. Scientists working at all levels should generate data to calibrate process-based models. Measurements in the field should not only concentrate on greenhouse gas emissions, but need to include crop and livestock production measurements, soil stock changes and other N loss pathways such as leaching, run-off and volatilization to assess management practices and trade-offs. Compared to the research done in other continents on N flows in livestock systems, there are few data for Africa, and therefore concerted effort will be needed to generate sufficient data for modelling.

  7. Past dynamics of the Australian monsoon: precession, phase and links to the global monsoon concept

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaufort, L.; van der Kaars, S.; Bassinot, F. C.; Moron, V.

    2010-10-01

    Past variations in the dynamics of the Australian monsoon have been estimated from multi-proxy analysis of a core retrieved in the Eastern Banda Sea. Records of coccolith and pollen assemblages, spanning the last 150 000 years, allow reconstruction of past primary production in the Banda Sea, summer moisture availability, and the length of the dry season in northern Australia and southeastern Indonesia. The amount of moisture available during the summer monsoon follows typical glacial/interglacial dynamics with a broad asymmetrical 100-kyr cycle. Primary production and length of the dry season appear to be closely related, given that they follow the precessional cycle with the same phase. This indicates their independence from ice-volume variations. The present inter-annual variability of both parameters is related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which modulates the Australian Winter Monsoon (AWM). The precessional pattern observed in the past dynamics of the AWM is found in ENSO and monsoon records of other regions. A marked shift in the monsoon intensity occurring during the mid Holocene during a period of constant ice volume, suggests that low latitude climatic variation precedes increases in global ice volume. This precessional pattern suggests that a common forcing mechanism underlies low latitude climate dynamics, acting specifically and synchronously on the different monsoon systems.

  8. Past dynamics of the Australian monsoon: precession, phase and links to the global monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaufort, L.; van der Kaars, S.; Bassinot, F. C.; Moron, V.

    2010-06-01

    Past variations in the dynamics of the Australian monsoon have been estimated from multi-proxy analysis of a core retrieved in the Eastern Banda Sea. Records of coccolith and pollen assemblages, spanning the last 150,000 years, allow reconstruction of past primary production in the Banda Sea, summer moisture availability, and the length of the dry season in Northern Australia and Southeastern Indonesia. The amount of moisture available during the summer monsoon follows typical glacial/interglacial dynamics with a broad asymmetrical 100-kyr cycle. Primary production and length of the dry season appear to be closely related, given that they follow the precessional cycle with the same phase (August insolation). This indicates their independence from ice-volume variations. The present inter-annual variability of both parameters is related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which modulates the Australian Winter Monsoon (AWM). The precessional pattern observed in the past dynamics of the AWM is found in ENSO and monsoon records of other regions. A marked shift in the monsoon intensity occurring during the mid Holocene during a period of constant ice volume, suggest that low latitude climatic variation precedes global ice volume. This precessional pattern suggests that a common forcing mechanism underlies low latitude climate dynamics, acting specifically and synchronically on the different monsoon systems.

  9. Post-Pan-African tectonic evolution of South Malawi in relation to the Karroo and recent East African rift systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castaing, C.

    1991-05-01

    Structural studies conducted in the Lengwe and Mwabvi Karroo basins and in the basement in South Malawi, using regional maps and published data extended to cover Southeast Africa, serve to propose a series of geodynamic reconstructions which reveal the persistence of an extensional tectonic regime, the minimum stress σ3 of which has varied through time. The period of Karroo rifting and the tholeiitic and alkaline magmatism which terminated it, were controlled by NW-SE extension, which resulted in the creation of roughly NE-SW troughs articulated by the Tanganyika-Malawi and Zambesi pre-transform systems. These were NW-SE sinistral-slip systems with directions of movement dipping slightly to the Southeast, which enabled the Mwanza fault to play an important role in the evolution of the Karroo basins of the Shire Valley. The Cretaceous was a transition period between the Karroo rifting and the formation of the Recent East African Rift System. Extension was NE-SW, with some evidence for a local compressional episode in the Lengwe basin. Beginning in the Cenozoic, the extension once more became NW-SE and controlled the evolution in transtension of the Recent East African Rift System. This history highlights the major role of transverse faults systems dominated by strike-slip motion in the evolution and perpetuation of the continental rift systems. These faults are of a greater geological persistence than the normal faults bounding the grabens, especially when they are located on major basement anisotropies.

  10. Evolutionary and comparative anatomical investigations of the autonomic cardiac nervous system in the African Cercopithecidae.

    PubMed

    Kawashima, Tomokazu; Akita, Keiichi; Sato, Kenji; Sasaki, Hiroshi

    2007-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to clarify the general architecture and morphological variations of the autonomic cardiac nervous system (ACNS) in the African Cercopithecidae (Old World monkeys), and to discuss the evolutionary changes between this system in African/Asian Cercopithecidae and humans. A detailed macroscopic comparative morphological investigation of the ACNS was performed by examining the left and right sides of 11 African cercopithecid specimens, including some previously unreported species (Abyssinian colobus, Angola pied colobus, Savanna monkey, and lesser white-nosed guenon). The common characteristics of the ACNS in the African Cercopithecidae are described in detail. Consequently, homologies of the ACNS between Asian (macaques) and African Cercopithecidae, and differences between the Asian/African Cercopithecidae and humans, were found. In particular, differences in the sympathetic (cardiac) systems of the Cercopithecidae and humans were recognized, despite the similar morphology of the parasympathetic vagal (cardiac) system. These differences include the composition of the cervicothoracic ganglion, the lower positions of the middle cervical and cervicothoracic ganglia, and the narrow range for the origin of the cardiac nerves in the Cercopithecidae, compared with that in humans. In conclusion, these findings are considered with regard to the morphology of the last common ancestors of the Cercopithecidae. PMID:17591730

  11. Reconciling societal and scientific definitions for the monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reeve, Mathew; Stephenson, David

    2014-05-01

    Science defines the monsoon in numerous ways. We can apply these definitions to forecast data, reanalysis data, observations, GCMs and more. In a basic research setting, we hope that this work will advance science and our understanding of the monsoon system. In an applied research setting, we often hope that this work will benefit a specific stakeholder or community. We may want to inform a stakeholder when the monsoon starts, now and in the future. However, what happens if the stakeholders cannot relate to the information because their perceptions do not align with the monsoon definition we use in our analysis? We can resolve this either by teaching the stakeholders or learning from them about how they define the monsoon and when they perceive it to begin. In this work we reconcile different scientific monsoon definitions with the perceptions of agricultural communities in Bangladesh. We have developed a statistical technique that rates different scientific definitions against the people's perceptions of when the monsoon starts and ends. We construct a probability mass function (pmf) around each of the respondent's answers in a questionnaire survey. We can use this pmf to analyze the time series of monsoon onsets and withdrawals from the different scientific definitions. We can thereby quantitatively judge which definition may be most appropriate for a specific applied research setting.

  12. A new perspective on West African hydroclimate during the last deglaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, Andrew O.; Schmidt, Matthew W.; Jobe, Zane R.; Slowey, Niall C.

    2016-09-01

    Widespread drought characterized the Heinrich 1 and Younger Dryas cold periods of the last deglaciation throughout much of Africa, causing large increases in dust emissions from the Sahara and Sahel. At the same time, increases in wind strength may have also contributed to dust flux, making it difficult to interpret dust records alone as reflecting changes in rainfall over the region. The Niger River has the third largest drainage basin in Africa and drains most of the Sahara and Sahel and thus preserves and propagates climatic signals. Here, we present new reconstructions of Niger Delta sea surface salinity and Niger River discharge for the last 20,000 years in order to more accurately reconstruct the onset of the Western African Monsoon system. Based on calculated δ18OSEAWATER (δ18OSW) and measured Ba/Ca ratios in planktonic foraminifera, these new records reflect changes in sub-Saharan precipitation across the Niger River Basin in West Africa and reveal that the West African Monsoon system began to intensify several thousand years after the equatorial Monsoon system in Central Africa. We also present new records of primary productivity in the Niger Delta that are related to wind-driven upwelling and show that productivity is decoupled from changes in Niger River discharge. Our results suggest that wind strength, rather than changes in monsoon moisture, was the primary driver of dust emissions from the Sahara and Sahel across the last deglaciation.

  13. Study of aerosol transport through precipitation chemistry over Arabian Sea during winter and summer monsoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Praveen, P. S.; Rao, P. S. P.; Safai, P. D.; Devara, P. C. S.; Chate, D. M.; Ali, K.; Momin, G. A.

    Precipitation samples over the Arabian Sea collected during Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX) in 2002-2003 were examined for major water soluble components and acidity of aerosols during the period of winter and summer monsoon seasons. The pH of rain water was alkaline during summer monsoon and acidic during winter monsoon. Summer monsoon precipitation showed dominance of sea-salt components (˜90%) and significant amounts of non-sea salt (nss) Ca 2+ and SO 42-. Winter monsoon precipitation samples showed higher concentration of NO 3- and NH 4+ compared to that of summer monsoon, indicating more influence of anthropogenic sources. The rain water data is interpreted in terms of long-range transport and background pollution. In summer monsoon, air masses passing over the north African and Gulf continents which may be carrying nss components are advected towards the observational location. Also, prevailing strong southwesterly winds at surface level produced sea-salt aerosols which led to high sea-salt contribution in precipitation. While in winter monsoon, it was observed that, air masses coming from Asian region towards observational location carry more pollutants like NO 3-and nss SO 42- that acidify the precipitation.

  14. Hydrothermal vents is Lake Tanganyika, East African Rift system

    SciTech Connect

    Tiercelin, J.J.; Pflumio, C.; Castrec, M.

    1993-06-01

    Sublacustrine hydrothermal vents with associated massive sulfides were discovered during April 1987 at Pemba and Cape Banza on the Zaire side of the northern basin of Lake Tanganyika, East African Rift system. New investigations by a team of ten scuba divers during the multinational (France, Zaire, Germany, and Burundi) TANGANYDRO expedition (August-October 1991) found hydrothermal vents down to a depth of 46 m along north-trending active faults bounding the Tanganyika rift on the western side. Temperatures from 53 to 103 {degrees}C were measured in hydrothermal fluids and sediments. Veins of massive sulfides 1-10 cm thick (pyrite and marcasite banding) were found associated with vents at the Pemba site. At Cape Banza, active vents are characterized by 1-70-cm-high aragonite chimneys, and there are microcrystalline pyrite coatings on the walls of hydrothermal pipes. Hydrothermal fluid end members show distinctive compositions at the two sites. The Pemba end member is a NaHCO{sub 3}-enriched fluid similar to the NaHCO{sub 3} thermal fluids form lakes Magadi and Bogoria in the eastern branch of the rift. The Cape Banza end member is a solution enriched in NaCl. Such brines may have a deep-seated basement origin, as do the Uvinza NaCl brines on the eastern flank of the Tanganyika basin. Geothermometric calculations have yielded temperatures of fluid-rock interaction of 219 and 179 {degrees}C in the Pemba and Cape Banza systems, respectively. Abundant white or reddish-brown microbial colonies resembling Beggiatoa mats were found surrounding the active vents. Thermal fluid circulation is permitted by opening of cracks related to 130{degrees}N normal-dextral faults that intersect the north-south major rift trend. The sources of heat for such hydrothermal systems may relate to the existence of magmatic bodies under the rift, which is suggested by the isotopic composition of carbon dioxide released at Pemba and Cape Banza. 21 refs., 2 figs.

  15. The Effect of Higher Resolution and Improved Formulation of Surface Fluxes, Cloudiness, and Other Physical Parameters on a Simple Simulated Monsoon System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Lie-Shieu

    1985-12-01

    Many general circulation modelers have identified the key factors influencing the Indian southwest monsoon. Although the land-sea distribution and moist adiabatic processes are diagnosed as being the key factors in generating the monsoon, the interrelationship of these processes was not properly clarified so far by the existing models. In the following study the simple Webster and Chou model was employed to diagnose important monsoon events or disturbances such as the shock (suddenness of the monsoon burst), onset vortex, organized precipitation cells etc. and to resolve the near equatorial disturbances that develop on the Southern Equatorial Trough (SET). A two degree resolution in stead of the original four degree resolution was adopted in this study. A noteworthy result of the HR (High Resolution) experiment is the generation of a shock signalling the onset of monsoon. The results of CS (climatologically derived surface winds) case show a weakening of the shock but a stronger development of westerlies at 750 mb agreeing better with observation. The precipitation in association with the onset in CS is less compared to HR but is prolonged. The CA (climatologically derived albedos) experiment affected the timing of the monsoon onset, reduced the intensity of the shock and developed less rainfall than HR. A combination of the CS and CA experiments eliminated the shock, advanced the monsoon onset and increased the rainfall over the land area. The SET experiment demonstrates that SET can influence the monsoon activity by decreasing rainfall particularly north of 25(DEGREES)N. This means that SET can initiate break conditions over northern India. The land-sea boundary experiments dealing with the movement of the land-sea boundary from 10(DEGREES)N to 30(DEGREES)N show that the timing of the monsoon onset is thus dependent on the land-sea distribution while the vigor is dependent on the air-sea exchange.

  16. Diatom community dynamics in a tropical, monsoon-influenced environment: West coast of India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Costa, Priya M.; Anil, Arga Chandrashekar

    2010-07-01

    Diatom communities are influenced by environmental perturbations, such as the monsoon system that impact the niche opportunities of species. To discern the influence of the monsoon system on diatom community structure, we sampled during two consecutive post-monsoons (2001 and 2002) and the intervening pre-monsoon at Mumbai and Jawaharlal Nehru ports along the central west coast of India. Characteristic temporal shifts in diatom community structure were observed across the sampling periods; these were mainly driven by temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen saturation. The nutrient-poor pre-monsoon period supported low abundance yet high species richness and diversity of diatoms. Coscinodiscus, Cyclotella, Thalassiosira, Triceratium, Pleurosigma, Skeletonema and Surirella were the most dominant genera. Both the post-monsoon periods, following dissimilar monsoon events, were dominated by Skeletonema costatum, but differed in some of the residual species . Thalassiosira and Thalassionema spp. dominated mostly during post-monsoon I whereas Triceratium and Pleurosigma spp. dominated during post-monsoon II. To understand the underlying ecological mechanisms involved in such dynamics, we focus on the dominant diatom species in post-monsoon periods, S. costatum, that contributes up to 60% to total diatom cell numbers. This research is relevant in light of the fluctuating monsoon regimes over the Asian continent, the confounding effects of anthropogenic eutrophication and the resulting cascading effects on trophic web dynamics.

  17. Magmatic Versus Amagmatic Rifting in the East African Rift System from Pn and Sn Tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Donnell, J. P.; Nyblade, A.

    2014-12-01

    Geodynamic models of rifting currently rely on the mechanism of hot mantle upwelling and decompressional melting to weaken lithospheric rock to the degree that rifting can initiate. However, many rift segments worldwide are apparently amagmatic. The East African Rift System is a prime example, with large sections of the system subaerially amagmatic. We seek to address the question of whether these apparently amagmatic rift segments merely lack a surficial expression of magmatism which exists at depth, or whether rifting is genuinely amagmatic. Based on regional earthquakes recorded by the Tanzania Broadband Seismic Experiment, the Kenya Broadband Seismic Experiment, the AfricaArray East African Seismic Experiment and several permanent GSN stations, we probe for uppermost mantle melt signatures along the East African Rift System using P- and S-wave speed ratios derived from Pn and Sn tomography. Pn- and Sn-velocity models, and their ratio which can be diagnostic of the presence of fluids, will be presented.

  18. Impacts of East Asian aerosols on the Asian monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartlett, Rachel; Bollasina, Massimo; Booth, Ben; Dunstone, Nick; Marenco, Franco

    2016-04-01

    Over recent decades, aerosol emissions from Asia have increased rapidly. Aerosols are able to alter radiative forcing and regional hydroclimate through direct and indirect effects. Large emissions within the geographical region of the Asian monsoon have been found to impact upon this vital system and have been linked to observed drying trends. The interconnected nature of smaller regional monsoon components (e.g. the Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon) presents the possibility that aerosol sources could have far-reaching impacts. Future aerosol emissions are uncertain and may continue to dominate regional impacts on the Asian monsoon. Standard IPCC future emissions scenarios do not take a broad sample of possible aerosol pathways. We investigate the sensitivity of the Asian monsoon to East Asian aerosol emissions. Experiments carried out with HadGEM2-ES use three time-evolving future anthropogenic aerosol emissions scenarios with similar time-evolving greenhouse gases. We find a wetter summer over southern China and the Indochina Peninsula associated with increased sulfate aerosol over China. The southern-flood-northern-drought pattern seen in observations is reflected in these results. India is found to be drier in the summer overall, although wetter in June. These precipitation changes are linked to the increase in sulfate through the alteration of large scale dynamics. Sub-seasonal changes are also seen, with an earlier withdrawal of the monsoon over East Asia.

  19. Influence of Aerosols on Monsoon Circulation and Hydroclimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K.M.

    2007-01-01

    Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global water cycles and climate change. In the Asian monsoon regions, the response of the regional water cycle and climate to aerosol forcing is very complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. Up to now, besides the general notion that aerosols may significantly impact monsoon through altering large scale radiative heating gradients, there has been very little information regarding the specific signatures, and mechanisms of aerosol-monsoon water cycle interaction. In this talk, based on preliminary results from observations and climate model experiments, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon water cycle, in particular the effects of absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon), and the role of the Tibetan Plateau. The influence of aerosol forcing relative to those due to sea surface temperature and land surface processes, and impact on potential predictability of the monsoon climate system will also be discussed.

  20. Influence of Aerosols on Monsoon Circulation and Hydroclimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K.

    2006-01-01

    Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global water cycles and climate change. In the Asian monsoon regions, the response of the regional water cycle and climate to aerosol forcing is very complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. Up to now, besides the general notion that aerosols may significantly impact monsoon through altering large scale radiative heating gradients, there has been very little information regarding the specific signatures, and mechanisms of aerosol-monsoon water cycle interaction. In this talk, based on preliminary results from observations and climate model experiments, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon water cycle, in particular the effects of absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon), and the role of the Tibetan Plateau. The influence of aerosol forcing relative to those due to sea surface temperature and land surface processes, and impact on potential predictability of the monsoon climate system will also be discussed.

  1. The North American Monsoon Forecast Forum at CPC/NCEP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schemm, J. E.; Higgins, W.; Long, L.; Shi, W.; Gochis, D. J.

    2009-12-01

    In 2008, CPC introduced a new operational product to provide users a forum to monitor the North American monsoon (NAM). The NAME Forecast Forum (NAME FF) was proposed and endorsed by the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Project Science Working Group as a natural extension to the NAME modeling activities coordinated under the NAME Climate Process Team project. It provided an opportunity to consolidate and assess, in real-time, the skill of intra-seasonal and seasonal monsoon forecasts. The NAME FF has continued in 2009 and three modeling groups collaborate with CPC to provide model simulated seasonal precipitation forecasts in the monsoon region. The website includes spatial maps and accumulated precipitation area-averaged over eight sub-regions of the NAM domain and is updated daily to include the current observed precipitation. A weekly update of the current conditions of the NAM system has been added to CPC’s American Monsoons monitoring webpage at, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons/NAME/index.shtml. A highlight for the 2009 season is the inclusion of the NCEP CFS forecasts in T382 horizontal resolution. These special high-resolution runs were made with initial conditions in mid-April to accommodate the CPC’s hurricane season outlook. Some results based on the T382 CFS runs also will be presented with emphasis on the prediction of precipitation and accompanying atmospheric circulation over the NAM region.

  2. Desert Dust and Monsoon Rain

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2014-01-01

    For centuries, inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent have know that heavy dust events brought on by strong winds occur frequently in the pre-monsoon season, before the onset of heavy rain. Yet scientists have never seriously considered the possibility that natural dust can affect monsoon rainfall. Up to now, most studies of the impacts of aerosols on Indian monsoon rainfall have focused on anthropogenic aerosols in the context of climate change. However, a few recent studies have show that aerosols from antropogenic and natural sources over the Indian subcontinent may affect the transition from break to active monsoon phases on short timescales of days to weeks. Writing in Nature Geoscience, Vinoj and colleagues describe how they have shown that desert dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and West Asia can strenghten the summer monsoon over the Indial subcontinent in a matter of days.

  3. A photovoltaic power system in the remote African village of Tangaye, Upper Volta

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bifano, W. J.; Ratajczak, A. F.; Martz, J. E.

    1979-01-01

    A photovoltaic (PV) system powering a grain mill and a water pump was installed in the remote West African village of Tangaye, Upper Volta. Village characteristics as well as system design, hardware, installation and operation to date are described. The PV system cost is discussed. A baseline socio-economic study performed and a follow-up study is planned to determine the impact of the system on the villagers.

  4. A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiemig, V.; Bisselink, B.; Pappenberger, F.; Thielen, J.

    2015-08-01

    The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Ranged Weather Forecasts) and critical hydrological thresholds. In this paper, the predictive capability is investigated in a hindcast mode, by reproducing hydrological predictions for the year 2003 when important floods were observed. Results were verified by ground measurements of 36 sub-catchments as well as by reports of various flood archives. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (> 1 week) and large affected areas (> 10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. The case study for the flood event in March 2003 in the Sabi Basin (Zimbabwe) illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a large potential as an operational pan-African flood forecasting system, although issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

  5. Chronic Systemic Immune Dysfunction in African-Americans with Small Vessel-Type Ischemic Stroke.

    PubMed

    Brown, Candice M; Bushnell, Cheryl D; Samsa, Gregory P; Goldstein, Larry B; Colton, Carol A

    2015-12-01

    The incidence of small vessel-type (lacunar) ischemic strokes is greater in African-Americans compared to whites. The chronic inflammatory changes that result from lacunar stroke are poorly understood. To elucidate these changes, we measured serum inflammatory and thrombotic biomarkers in African-Americans at least 6 weeks post-stroke compared to control individuals. Cases were African-Americans with lacunar stroke (n = 30), and controls were age-matched African-Americans with no history of stroke or other major neurologic disease (n = 37). Blood was obtained >6 weeks post-stroke and was analyzed for inflammatory biomarkers. Freshly isolated peripheral blood mononuclear cells were stimulated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) to assess immune responsiveness in a subset of cases (n = 5) and controls (n = 4). After adjustment for covariates, the pro-inflammatory biomarkers, soluble vascular cadherin adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1) and thrombin anti-thrombin (TAT), were independently associated with lacunar stroke. Immune responsiveness to LPS challenge was abnormal in cases compared to controls. African-Americans with lacunar stroke had elevated blood levels of VCAM-1 and TAT and an abnormal response to acute immune challenge >6 weeks post-stroke, suggesting a chronically compromised systemic inflammatory response. PMID:26373290

  6. Ideological schisms about HIV/AIDS helping systems in the African American community, with an emphasis on women.

    PubMed

    Fairfax, Colita Nichols

    2010-10-01

    This article is an initial exploration about the impact of ideological beliefs on helping services in the African American community. Newly infected HIV/AIDS cases place African Americans at 45% of such new cases, with African American women becoming infected at a rate 18 times that of Whites. Yet, helping services that are organic to African American women should be stronger through a discussion of cultural beliefs held in the community, where the genesis of helping services exists. Values and beliefs should be at the center of community partnerships, public media strategies, generalist-practice curricula in macro-level systems, and creating more space for relationship dialogue between African American men and women, which includes gender and racial distortions. Given the exponentially high numbers of HIV/AIDS cases in the African American community, a more earnest examination of values and beliefs is warranted. PMID:21082471

  7. Ideological schisms about HIV/AIDS helping systems in the African American community, with an emphasis on women.

    PubMed

    Fairfax, Colita Nichols

    2010-10-01

    This article is an initial exploration about the impact of ideological beliefs on helping services in the African American community. Newly infected HIV/AIDS cases place African Americans at 45% of such new cases, with African American women becoming infected at a rate 18 times that of Whites. Yet, helping services that are organic to African American women should be stronger through a discussion of cultural beliefs held in the community, where the genesis of helping services exists. Values and beliefs should be at the center of community partnerships, public media strategies, generalist-practice curricula in macro-level systems, and creating more space for relationship dialogue between African American men and women, which includes gender and racial distortions. Given the exponentially high numbers of HIV/AIDS cases in the African American community, a more earnest examination of values and beliefs is warranted.

  8. New Controls and Accountability for South African Teachers and Schools: The Integrated Quality Management System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weber, Everard

    2005-01-01

    This article analyses the Integrated Quality Management System (IQMS), an agreement reached in 2003 between the South African Education Department and the major teacher organisations in the country by using discourse analysis. The IQMS was scheduled to be implemented in public schools in 2004. Three discursive tensions are identified and…

  9. Variations in Reading Achievement across 14 Southern African School Systems: Which Factors Matter?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hungi, Njora; Thuku, Florence W.

    2010-01-01

    In this study the authors employed a multilevel analysis procedure in order to examine the pupil and school levels factors that contributed to variation in reading achievement among Grade 6 primary school pupils in 14 southern African school systems (Botswana, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa,…

  10. External Research Report on Attitudes and Barriers Impacting the Participation of African-American Males in the University System of Georgia. The University System of Georgia's African-American Male Initiative.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Georgia Univ. System, Atlanta. Board of Regents.

    The African-American Male Initiative, a task force of the University System of Georgia (USG) Board of Regents, commissioned a statewide study to explore African American males' attitudes toward college in general and the USG in particular. Designed and conducted by external consulting firms, the study drew on discussions in focus groups and with…

  11. Transient coupling relationships of the Holocene Australian monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McRobie, F. H.; Stemler, T.; Wyrwoll, K.-H.

    2015-08-01

    The northwest Australian summer monsoon owes a notable degree of its interannual variability to interactions with other regional monsoon systems. Therefore, changes in the nature of these relationships may contribute to variability in monsoon strength over longer time scales. Previous attempts to evaluate how proxy records from the Indonesian-Australian monsoon region correspond to other records from the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions, as well as to El Niño-related proxy records, have been qualitative, relying on 'curve-fitting' methods. Here, we seek a quantitative approach for identifying coupling relationships between paleoclimate proxy records, employing statistical techniques to compute the interdependence of two paleoclimate time series. We verify the use of complex networks to identify coupling relationships between modern climate indices. This method is then extended to a set of paleoclimate proxy records from the Asian, Australasian and South American regions spanning the past 9000 years. The resulting networks demonstrate the existence of coupling relationships between regional monsoon systems on millennial time scales, but also highlight the transient nature of teleconnections during this period. In the context of the northwest Australian summer monsoon, we recognise a shift in coupling relationships from strong interhemispheric links with East Asian and ITCZ-related proxy records in the mid-Holocene to significantly weaker coupling in the later Holocene. Although the identified links cannot explain the underlying physical processes leading to coupling between regional monsoon systems, this method provides a step towards understanding the role that changes in teleconnections play in millennial-to orbital-scale climate variability.

  12. Tropical convective systems life cycle characteristics from geostationary satellite and precipitating estimates derived from TRMM and ground weather radar observations for the West African and South American regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fiolleau, T.; Roca, R.; Angelis, F. C.; Viltard, N.

    2012-12-01

    In the tropics most of the rainfall comes in the form of individual storm events embedded in the synoptic circulations (e.g., monsoons). Understanding the rainfall and its variability hence requires to document these highly contributing tropical convective systems (MCS). Our knowledge of the MCS life cycle, from a physical point of view mainly arises from individual observational campaigns heavily based on ground radar observations. While this large part of observations enabled the creation of conceptual models of MCS life cycle, it nevertheless does not reach any statistically significant integrated perspective yet. To overcome this limitation, a composite technique, that will serve as a Day-1 algorithm for the Megha-Tropiques mission, is considered in this study. this method is based on a collocation in space and time of the level-2 rainfall estimates (BRAIN) derived from the TMI radiometer onboard TRMM with the cloud systems identified by a new MCS tracking algorithm called TOOCAN and based on a 3-dimensional segmentation (image + time) of the geostationary IR imagery. To complete this study, a similar method is also developed collocating the cloud systems with the precipitating features derived from the ground weather radar which has been deployed during the CHUVA campaign over several Brazilian regions from 2010 up to now. A comparison of the MCSs life cycle is then performed for the 2010-2012 summer seasons over the West African, and South American regions. On the whole region of study, the results show that the temporal evolution of the cold cloud shield associated to MCSs describes a symmetry between the growth and the decay phases. It is also shown that the parameters of the conceptual model of MCSs are strongly correlated, reducing thereby the problem to a single degree of freedom. At the system scale, over both land and oceanic regions, rainfall is described by an increase at the beginning (the first third) of the life cycle and then smoothly decreases

  13. Impact of anthropogenic aerosols on Indian summer monsoon

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Chien; Kim, Dongchul; Ekman, Annica; Barth, Mary; Rasch, Philip J.

    2009-11-05

    Using an interactive aerosol-climate model we find that absorbing anthropogenic aerosols, whether coexisting with scattering aerosols or not, can significantly affect the Indian summer monsoon system. We also show that the influence is reflected in a perturbation to the moist static energy in the sub-cloud layer, initiated as a heating by absorbing aerosols to the planetary boundary layer. The perturbation appears mostly over land, extending from just north of the Arabian Sea to northern India along the southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau. As a result, during the summer monsoon season, modeled convective precipitation experiences a clear northward shift, coincidently in agreement with observed monsoon precipitation changes in recent decades particularly during the onset season. We demonstrate that the sub-cloud layer moist static energy is a useful quantity for determining the impact of aerosols on the northward extent and to a certain degree the strength of monsoon convection.

  14. Holocene Monsoon variability in East Africa: a marine perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romahn, S.; Mackensen, A.; Groeneveld, J.; Pätzold, J.

    2012-12-01

    The processes that control past monsoon variability in the East African Tropics during the Holocene are poorly understood. Especially the role of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) controlling East African Rainfall on millennial timescales, as it is observed on decadal timescales, is currently intensely debated. In addition, it has been suggested recently that the longitudinal migration of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB) modulates East African precipitation on a regional scale as well [Tierney et al., 2011]. Here, we present a high-resolution marine sediment record for the past 12 kyrs from offshore Tanzania, close to the Rufiji River delta, to contribute to the current debate from a marine point of view. We reconstructed past SST and δ18Oseawater, derived from planktic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and δ18O, and past Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) variations, derived from planktic foraminiferal Ba/Ca-ratios. In the vicinity of river deltas, Ba/Ca-ratios have potential to record precipitation changes in the rivers' catchment area. Our records show that East African precipitation, derived from Ba/Ca-ratios, roughly varies in concert with Indian Ocean SST, suggesting higher Indian Ocean SST to be an important prerequisite for stronger precipitation, and hence an intense monsoon episode in East Africa. We calculated the difference (ΔSST) between our record of Indian Ocean SST and SST of the tropical Atlantic [Weldeab et al., 2005], showing that ΔSST variability resembles the isotopic pattern of the Kilimanjaro ice core record [Thompson et al., 2002]. We suggest this to be the consequence of a longitudinal movement of the CAB over the African Continent, changing the trajectory of Indian Ocean moisture into the continent and therefore affecting the δ18O of the East African rainout. Thompson, L. G., et al. (2002), Kilimanjaro Ice Core Records: Evidence of Holocene Climate Change in Tropical Africa, Science, 298, 589-593. Tierney, J. E., et al. (2011), Late Quaternary behavior of the

  15. Three exceptionally strong East-Asian summer monsoon events during glacial times in the past 470 kyr

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rousseau, D.; Wu, N.; Pei, Y.; Li, F.

    2009-12-01

    Chinese loess sequences are interpreted as a reliable record of the past variation of the East Asian monsoon regime through the alternation of loess and paleosols units, dominated by the winter and summer monsoon respectively. Different proxies have been used to describe this system, mostly geophysical, geochemical or sedimentological. Terrestrial mollusks are also a reliable proxy of past environmental conditions and are often preserved in large numbers in loess deposits. The analysis of the mollusk remains in the Luochuan sequence, comprising L5 loess to S0 soil, i.e. the last 500 ka, shows that for almost all identified species, the abundance is higher at the base of the interval (L5 to L4) than in the younger deposits. Using the present ecological requirements of the identified mollusk species in the Luochuan sequence allows the definition of two main mollusk groups varying during the last 500 kyr. In the sequence, three events with exceptionally high abundance of the Asian summer monsoon indicators (thermal-humidiphilous mollusks) are recorded during the L5, L4 and L2 glacial intervals, i.e., at about 470, 360 and 170 kyr respectively. The L5 and L4 events appear to be the strongest (high counts). Similar variations have also been identified in E Asia to suggest that this phenomenon is regional rather than local. The L5 and L2 summer monsoons are coeval with Mediterranean sapropels S12 and S6, which characterize a strong African summer monsoon with relatively low surface water salinity in the Indian Ocean. Changes in the precipitation regime could correspond to a response to a particular astronomical configuration (low obliquity, low precession, summer solstice at perihelion) leading to an increased summer insolation gradient between the tropics and the high latitudes and resulting in enhanced atmospheric water transport from the tropics to the African and Asian continents. However, other climate drivers such as reorganization of marine and atmospheric

  16. An Exploration of the Leadership Style Preferences among African American Women Administrators of the 1890 Cooperative Extension System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Shelvy L.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this mixed-methods study was to identify and explore the leadership style preferences among current African American Administrators of the 1890 Land-Grant Cooperative Extension system. The population used in this study was African American women administrators from eighteen mostly southern states. The researcher used a "two-phase…

  17. Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Z. A.; Kwasniok, F.; Boulton, C. A.; Cox, P. M.; Jones, R. T.; Lenton, T. M.; Turney, C. S. M.

    2015-12-01

    Palaeo-records from China demonstrate that the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is dominated by abrupt and large magnitude monsoon shifts on millennial timescales, switching between periods of high and weak monsoon rains. It has been hypothesized that over these timescales, the EASM exhibits two stable states with bifurcation-type tipping points between them. Here we test this hypothesis by looking for early warning signals of past bifurcations in speleothem δ18O records from Sanbao Cave and Hulu Cave, China, spanning the penultimate glacial cycle. We find that although there are increases in both autocorrelation and variance preceding some of the monsoon transitions during this period, it is only immediately prior to the abrupt monsoon shift at the penultimate deglaciation (Termination II) that statistically significant increases are detected. To supplement our data analysis, we produce and analyse multiple model simulations that we derive from these data. We find hysteresis behaviour in our model simulations with transitions directly forced by solar insolation. However, signals of critical slowing down, which occur on the approach to a bifurcation, are only detectable in the model simulations when the change in system stability is sufficiently slow to be detected by the sampling resolution of the data set. This raises the possibility that the early warning "alarms" were missed in the speleothem data over the period 224-150 kyr and it was only at the monsoon termination that the change in the system stability was sufficiently slow to detect early warning signals.

  18. Recent seismicity of the East African Rift system and its implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kebede, Fekadu; Kulhánek, Ota

    1991-09-01

    The seismicity of the East African Rift system and southern Red Sea is studied here. Location of earthquake epicenters in East Africa shows that there is a seismicity gap in space and time between the Main Ethiopian Rift system and the eastern rift. However, distribution of earthquake epicenters together with the energy mapping suggest a continuity of seismic activity or stress field from the Main Ethiopian Rift system to the western rift system via the southernmost rifts of Ethiopia. In general (except for some earthquakes which occurred at different complex tectonics regions) mechanisms of earthquakes studied here show dominantly normal faulting suggesting that the rift system is an extensional zone on the continent. The presence of greater focal depth earthquakes to the southern part of the rift system may indicate that softer materials at a shallower depth are present in Afar and neighboring regions than in the remaining part of the East African Rift system. This interpretation is supported by other geophysical studies (low electrical resistivity and gravity data) performed in Afar. It is also supported by low and high stress drops found for the northern part (Afar depression) and southern part of the East African Rift system, respectively.

  19. Co-evolution of monsoonal precipitation in East Asia and the tropical Pacific ENSO system since 2.36 Ma: New insights from high-resolution clay mineral records in the West Philippine Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Zhaojie; Wan, Shiming; Colin, Christophe; Yan, Hong; Bonneau, Lucile; Liu, Zhifei; Song, Lina; Sun, Hanjie; Xu, Zhaokai; Jiang, Xuejun; Li, Anchun; Li, Tiegang

    2016-07-01

    Clay mineralogical analysis and scanning electron microscope (SEM) analysis were performed on deep-sea sediments cored on the Benham Rise (core MD06-3050) in order to reconstruct long-term evolution of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) rainfall in the period since 2.36 Ma. Clay mineralogical variations are due to changes in the ratios of smectite, which derive from weathering of volcanic rocks in Luzon Island during intervals of intensive monsoon rainfall, and illite- and chlorite-rich dusts, which are transported from East Asia by winds associated with the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM). Since Luzon is the main source of smectite to the Benham Rise, long-term consistent variations in the smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratio in core MD06-3050 as well as ODP site 1146 in the Northern South China Sea suggest that minor contributions of eolian dust played a role in the variability of this mineralogical ratio and indicate strengthening EASM precipitation in SE Asia during time intervals from 2360 to 1900 kyr, 1200 to 600 kyr, and after 200 kyr. The EASM rainfall record displays a 30 kyr periodicity suggesting the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These intervals of rainfall intensification on Luzon Island are coeval with a reduction in precipitation over central China and an increase in zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, implying a reinforcement of La Niña-like conditions. In contrast, periods of reduced rainfall on Luzon Island are associated with higher precipitation in central China and a weakening zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, thereby suggesting the development of dominant El Niño-like conditions. Our study, therefore, highlights for the first time a long-term temporal and spatial co-evolution of monsoonal precipitation in East Asia and of the tropical Pacific ENSO system over the past 2.36 Ma.

  20. Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979-2008)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Kim, Hyung-Jin; Webster, Peter J.; Yim, So-Young

    2012-09-01

    The global monsoon (GM) is a defining feature of the annual variation of Earth's climate system. Quantifying and understanding the present-day monsoon precipitation change are crucial for prediction of its future and reflection of its past. Here we show that regional monsoons are coordinated not only by external solar forcing but also by internal feedback processes such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). From one monsoon year (May to the next April) to the next, most continental monsoon regions, separated by vast areas of arid trade winds and deserts, vary in a cohesive manner driven by ENSO. The ENSO has tighter regulation on the northern hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) than on the southern hemisphere summer monsoon (SHSM). More notably, the GM precipitation (GMP) has intensified over the past three decades mainly due to the significant upward trend in NHSM. The intensification of the GMP originates primarily from an enhanced east-west thermal contrast in the Pacific Ocean, which is coupled with a rising pressure in the subtropical eastern Pacific and decreasing pressure over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. While this mechanism tends to amplify both the NHSM and SHSM, the stronger (weaker) warming trend in the NH (SH) creates a hemispheric thermal contrast, which favors intensification of the NHSM but weakens the SHSM. The enhanced Pacific zonal thermal contrast is largely a result of natural variability, whilst the enhanced hemispherical thermal contrast is likely due to anthropogenic forcing. We found that the enhanced global summer monsoon not only amplifies the annual cycle of tropical climate but also promotes directly a "wet-gets-wetter" trend pattern and indirectly a "dry-gets-drier" trend pattern through coupling with deserts and trade winds. The mechanisms recognized in this study suggest a way forward for understanding past and future changes of the GM in terms of its driven mechanisms.

  1. Causal evidence between monsoon and evolution of rhizomyine rodents

    PubMed Central

    López-Antoñanzas, Raquel; Knoll, Fabien; Wan, Shiming; Flynn, Lawrence J.

    2015-01-01

    The modern Asian monsoonal systems are currently believed to have originated around the end of the Oligocene following a crucial step of uplift of the Tibetan-Himalayan highlands. Although monsoon possibly drove the evolution of many mammal lineages during the Neogene, no evidence thereof has been provided so far. We examined the evolutionary history of a clade of rodents, the Rhizomyinae, in conjunction with our current knowledge of monsoon fluctuations over time. The macroevolutionary dynamics of rhizomyines were analyzed within a well-constrained phylogenetic framework coupled with biogeographic and evolutionary rate studies. The evolutionary novelties developed by these rodents were surveyed in parallel with the fluctuations of the Indian monsoon so as to evaluate synchroneity and postulate causal relationships. We showed the existence of three drops in biodiversity during the evolution of rhizomyines, all of which reflected elevated extinction rates. Our results demonstrated linkage of monsoon variations with the evolution and biogeography of rhizomyines. Paradoxically, the evolution of rhizomyines was accelerated during the phases of weakening of the monsoons, not of strengthening, most probably because at those intervals forest habitats declined, which triggered extinction and progressive specialization toward a burrowing existence. PMID:25759260

  2. Tohono O'odham Monsoon Climatology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ackerman, G.

    2006-12-01

    The North American monsoon is a summertime weather phenomenon that develops over the southwestern North America. For thousands of years the Tohono O'odham people of this area have depended on the associated rainy season (Jukiabig Masad) to grow traditional crops using runoff agriculture. Today, the high incidence of Type II diabetes among native people has prompted many to return to their traditional agricultural diets. Local monsoon onset dates and the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset were used to develop a 24-year Tohono O'odham Nation (TON) monsoon and pre-monsoon climatology that can be used as a tool for planning runoff agriculture. Using monsoon composite datasets, temporal and spatial correlations between antecedent period meteorological variables, monsoon onset dates and total monsoon precipitation were examined to identify variables that could be useful in predicting the onset and intensity of the monsoon. The results suggest additional research is needed to identify variables related to monsoon onset and intensity.

  3. An ICT-Based Diabetes Management System Tested for Health Care Delivery in the African Context

    PubMed Central

    Takenga, Claude; Berndt, Rolf-Dietrich; Musongya, Olivier; Kitero, Joël; Katoke, Remi; Molo, Kakule; Kazingufu, Basile; Meni, Malikwisha; Vikandy, Mambo; Takenga, Henri

    2014-01-01

    The demand for new healthcare services is growing rapidly. Improving accessibility of the African population to diabetes care seems to be a big challenge in most countries where the number of care centers and medical staff is reduced. Information and communication technologies (ICT) have great potential to address some of these challenges faced by several countries in providing accessible, cost-effective, and high-quality health care services. This paper presents the Mobil Diab system which is a telemedical approach proposed for the management of long-term diseases. The system applies modern mobile and web technologies which overcome geographical barriers, and increase access to health care services. The idea of the system is to involve patients in the therapy process and motivate them for an active participation. For validation of the system in African context, a trial was conducted in the Democratic Republic of Congo. 40 Subjects with diabetes divided randomly into control and intervention groups were included in the test. Results show that Mobil Diab is suitable for African countries and presents a number of benefits for the population and public health care system. It improves clinical management and delivery of diabetes care services by enhancing access, quality, motivation, reassurance, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. PMID:25136358

  4. Tomography of the East African Rift System in Mozambique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Domingues, A.; Silveira, G. M.; Custodio, S.; Chamussa, J.; Lebedev, S.; Chang, S. J.; Ferreira, A. M. G.; Fonseca, J. F. B. D.

    2014-12-01

    Unlike the majority of the East African Rift, the Mozambique region has not been deeply studied, not only due to political instabilities but also because of the difficult access to its most interior regions. An earthquake with M7 occurred in Machaze in 2006, which triggered the investigation of this particular region. The MOZART project (funded by FCT, Lisbon) installed a temporary seismic network, with a total of 30 broadband stations from the SEIS-UK pool, from April 2011 to July 2013. Preliminary locations of the seismicity were estimated with the data recorded from April 2011 to July 2012. A total of 307 earthquakes were located, with ML magnitudes ranging from 0.9 to 3.9. We observe a linear northeast-southwest distribution of the seismicity that seems associated to the Inhaminga fault. The seismicity has an extension of ~300km reaching the Machaze earthquake area. The northeast sector of the seismicity shows a good correlation with the topography, tracing the Urema rift valley. In order to obtain an initial velocity model of the region, the ambient noise method is used. This method is applied to the entire data set available and two additional stations of the AfricaARRAY project. Ambient noise surface wave tomography is possible by computing cross-correlations between all pairs of stations and measuring the group velocities for all interstation paths. With this approach we obtain Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion curves in the period range from 3 to 50 seconds. Group velocity maps are calculated for several periods and allowing a geological and tectonic interpretation. In order to extend the investigation to longer wave periods and thus probe both the crust and upper mantle, we apply a recent implementation of the surface-wave two-station method (teleseismic interferometry - Meier el al 2004) to augment our dataset with Rayleigh wave phase velocities curves in a broad period range. Using this method we expect to be able to explore the lithosphere

  5. Racism and the mental health of African Americans: the role of self and system blame.

    PubMed

    Neighbors, H W; Jackson, J S; Broman, C; Thompson, E

    1996-01-01

    The research on external (social system) and internal (personal) attributions to mental health outcomes for African Americans is reviewed. Although many blacks have aspirations that they are unable to achieve, the motivational and mental health consequences of this situation are unclear. Several researchers have suggested that it is adaptive for African Americans to reduce striving effort and bring personal goals more in line with the objective realities of an unfair opportunity structure. Others have proposed that because an unjust system is to blame, the most appropriate response is to work collectively with other group members to make the system more open to opportunities for advancement. Epidemiologic research on the relationship of internal-external locus of control to mental disorder has generally found that being internal has positive mental health effects; while having an external orientation is detrimental. This paper addresses these issues by demonstrating that the psychiatric-epidemiologic and the race-consciousness literatures lead to opposite predictions about the relationship of external attributions (fatalism and system blame) to mental health. The article concludes with a series of issues that need to be addressed in order to advance knowledge about social and psychological risk factors for psychiatric disorders in African Americans.

  6. Long-range forecast of all India summer monsoon rainfall using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system: skill comparison with CFSv2 model simulation and real-time forecast for the year 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaudhuri, S.; Das, D.; Goswami, S.; Das, S. K.

    2016-02-01

    All India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) characteristics play a vital role for the policy planning and national economy of the country. In view of the significant impact of monsoon system on regional as well as global climate systems, accurate prediction of summer monsoon rainfall has become a challenge. The objective of this study is to develop an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for long range forecast of AISMR. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of temperature, zonal and meridional wind at different pressure levels have been taken to construct the input matrix of ANFIS. The membership of the input parameters for AISMR as high, medium or low is estimated with trapezoidal membership function. The fuzzified standardized input parameters and the de-fuzzified target output are trained with artificial neural network models. The forecast of AISMR with ANFIS is compared with non-hybrid multi-layer perceptron model (MLP), radial basis functions network (RBFN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models. The forecast error analyses of the models reveal that ANFIS provides the best forecast of AISMR with minimum prediction error of 0.076, whereas the errors with MLP, RBFN and MLR models are 0.22, 0.18 and 0.73 respectively. During validation with observations, ANFIS shows its potency over the said comparative models. Performance of the ANFIS model is verified through different statistical skill scores, which also confirms the aptitude of ANFIS in forecasting AISMR. The forecast skill of ANFIS is also observed to be better than Climate Forecast System version 2. The real-time forecast with ANFIS shows possibility of deficit (65-75 cm) AISMR in the year 2015.

  7. The verification of millennial-scale monsoon water vapor transport channel in northwest China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yu; Zhang, Chengqi; Wang, Yue

    2016-05-01

    Long-term changes of the Asian summer monsoon water vapor transport play a pivotal role in the variability of monsoon precipitation. Paleo-climate simulations have shown that there is an important monsoon vapor transport channel in western China. Previous studies mostly focused on the correlation between monsoon precipitation and intensity. Little research has been done on the verification of the water vapor channel. Compared with speleothem and lacustrine systems, the hydrological cycle of land surface sediments is more directly related to the monsoon water vapor. In this study, we used carbonate δ18O and organic matter δ13C of the surface eolian sediments from the piedmont of the northern Qilian Mountains to verify the monsoon water vapor on the Holocene millennial-scale. Two surface sedimentary sections were selected to study paleo-monsoon water vapor transport. Proxy data, including carbonate δ18O and organic matter δ13C of surface eolian sediments, as well as total organic matter and carbonate content were obtained from the two eolian sections. We also synthesized transient simulations of the CCSM3 and the Kiel climate models. The PMIP 3.0 project and TRACE isotopic simulations were also compared with the reconstructed monsoon water vapor transport. Our findings indicate that the strength of the Holocene Asian summer monsoon is consistent with the water vapor transport in western China that has significant impacts to long-term monsoon precipitation in northern China. This study verifies a significant millennial-scale correlation between the monsoon strength and monsoon water vapor transport intensity along the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

  8. Asian Monsoon Variability from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) and Links to Indo-Pacific Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Anchukaitis, Kevin; Hernandez, Manuel; Buckley, Brendan; Cook, Edward

    2014-05-01

    Drought patterns across monsoon and temperate Asia over the period 1877-2005 are linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) composed of a high-resolution network of hydroclimatically sensitive tree-ring records with a focus on the June-August months, spatial drought patterns during El Niño and IOD events are assessed as to their agreement with an instrumental drought index and consistency in the drought response amongst ENSO/IOD events. Spatial characteristics in drought patterns are related to regional climate anomalies over the Indo-Pacific basin, using reanalysis products, including changes in the Asian monsoon systems, zonal Walker circulation, moisture fluxes, and precipitation. A weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia during El Niño events, along with anomalous subsidence over monsoon Asia and reduced moisture flux, is reflected in anomalous drought conditions over India, Southeast Asia and Indonesia. When an IOD event co-occurs with an El Niño, severe drought conditions identified in the MADA for Southeast Asia, Indonesia, eastern China and central Asia are associated with a weakened South Asian monsoon, reduced moisture flux over China, and anomalous divergent flow and subsidence over Indonesia. Variations in the strength of the South Asian monsoon can also be linked to the Strange Parallels Drought (1756-1768) affecting much of Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent in the mid-18th Century. Large-scale climate anomalies across the wider region during years with an anomalously strengthened/weakened South Asian monsoon are discussed with implications for severe droughts prior to the instrumental period. Insights into the relative influences of Pacific and Indian Ocean variability for Asian monsoon climate on interannual to decadal and longer timescales, as recorded in the

  9. Surface-wave Tomography of East African Rift System using Ambient Seismic Noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S.; Kang, T.; Baag, C.; Nyblade, A. A.

    2008-12-01

    The surface-wave tomography technique for the ambient seismic noise is applied to the east African rift system to investigate shallow crustal structures of the region. Even if the technique has been widely used in many regions to investigate crustal structure in the world, there have been difficulties in application of the technique to the east African region because of unstable data conditions of PASSCAL experiments. A meticulous check of record by record enables us of applying the technique to understand the tectonic environment of the region. The long-period data of one month showing good quality in cross-correlation results are used in this study. They are from the 1994-95 Tanzania Passive-Source Seismic Experiment for the Tanzania craton and its surrounding rift zone, and from the 2000-02 Ethiopia/Kenya Broadband Seismic Experiment and the adjacent permanent stations of the African Array for the Ethiopia rift. The Rayleigh- and Love-wave group-speed maps were inverted using LSQR algorithm for several period bands (5 - 50 s). The preliminary group-speed distribution maps yield results roughly consistent with regional geology. The tomographic images of the Tanzania region show a strong high velocity anomaly at the location corresponding to the Tanzania craton and low velocity anomalies at the surrounding rift regions. For the Ethiopia regions, the features of low velocity anomalies roughly agree with the Tertiary volcanic regions. Combining the Tanzania and Ethiopia broadband arrays, the outline of the east African rift system can be identified as the low velocity anomalies in the surface-wave tomographic results. The structural variation with depth and the feature of the regional shear-wave anisotropy of crust will be explored by converting group- speed dispersion curves into shear-wave velocity structure.

  10. The South African Higher Education System: Performance and Policy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cloete, Nico

    2014-01-01

    Transformation in higher education in South Africa over the last 20 years has been strongly shaped by post-apartheid pressures. Recent research shows that South Africa's current higher education system can be described as medium knowledge-producing and differentiated, with low participation and high attrition. In the decade following 1994,…

  11. Ebola impact on African health systems entails a quest for more international and local resilience: the case of African Portuguese speaking countries

    PubMed Central

    Lapão, Luís Velez; Silva, Andreia; Pereira, Natália; Vasconcelos, Paula; Conceição, Cláudia

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Ebola epidemics have shown to have significant impacts on many aspects of healthcare systems. African countries have been facing many difficulties while addressing Ebola epidemics, moreover due to both lack of resources and fragmented involvement of national and international entities. The participation of multiple organizations has created serious problems of coordination of aid and the operation of that aid on the ground. This paper aims at addressing the impact of Ebola epidemics on African health systems, with a special focus on the definition of impact mitigation guidelines and the role of resilience. The example of Portuguese speaking countries is presented. Methods A combination of literature review and case study methods are used. A literature review on Ebola outbreak impact on health systems will provide information to define a set of guidelines for healthcare services response to Ebola. The role of cooperation in providing additional resilience is described. Finally a case study focusing on the Portuguese collaboration and intervention in African Portuguese Speaking Countries (PALOP) is presented, as an example how the international community can provide additional resilience. Results The existing knowledge is very helpful to guide both the preparation and the coordination of Ebola preparedness interventions. Additional resilience can be provided by international cooperation. Conclusion In addition to international concrete support in times of crisis, to have a regional strategy of creating (multi-national) teams to rapidly implement an intervention while establishing better regional capacity to have sufficient resources to support the “resilience” required of the health system. PMID:26740843

  12. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal timescales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features

  13. Evolving African attitudes to European education: Resistance, pervert effects of the single system paradox, and the ubuntu framework for renewal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Assié-Lumumba, N'Dri Thérèse

    2016-02-01

    This paper is a reflection that critically examines the dynamics of education and the struggle by African people for freedom, control of the mind, self-definition and the right to determine their own destiny from the start of colonial rule to the present. The primary methodological approach is historical structuralism, which stipulates that social reality and facts are determined and created by social agents within structural and historical contingencies. It addresses some of the most powerful challenges and contradictions that explain the ineffectiveness of numerous post-independence reforms, and presents the arguments for relevance and use of African languages, for instance, that have been made since the 1960s. The first section of the paper deals with the colonial imperatives for setting new education systems in the colonised societies of Africa and the initial attitudes of the Africans towards colonial education. The second section critically examines the evolving meanings of Western education in Europeanising African societies, the articulation of their rationale and the mechanism for resistance. It analyses the turning point when Africans began to embrace European education and demand it in the colonial and post-independence era. The third section addresses the roots of the inadequacies of received post-colonial education and the imperative of deconstruction and re-appropriation of African education using an ubuntu framework for an African renewal.

  14. Recent climatological trend of the Saharan heat low and its impact on the West African climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavaysse, Christophe; Flamant, Cyrille; Evan, Amato; Janicot, Serge; Gaetani, Marco

    2015-10-01

    The Saharan heat low (SHL) plays a pivotal role in the West African monsoon system in spring and summer. The recent trend in SHL activity has been analysed using two sets of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model reanalyses and Atmospheric Models Intercomparison Project simulations from 15 climate models performed in the framework of the 5th Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) exercise. A local increase of temperature in the Sahara during the 90s is found in the two sets of NWP models temperature. This increase is stronger within the SHL region than over the surrounding areas. Using different temporal filters (under 25 days, 25-100 days and above 300 days), we show that this is accompanied by a slight but widespread increase of temperature, and a change in the filtered signal under 25 days during the transition period of the 90s. We also show that SHL pulsations occurring at different time scales impact the West Africa climate on a variety of spatial scales, from the regional scale (for the high band pass) to the synoptic scale (for the low band pass signal). Despite a large variability in the temporal trends for 15 climate models from the CMIP5 project, the warming trend in the 90s is observed in the models ensemble mean. Nevertheless, large discrepancies are found between the NWP models reanalyses and the climate model simulations regarding the spatial and temporal evolutions of the SHL as well as its impact on West African climate at the different time scales. These comparisons also reveal that climate models represent the West African monsoon interactions with SHL pulsations quite differently. We provide recommendations to use some of them depending on the time scales of the processes at play (synoptic, seasonal, interannual) and based on key SHL metrics (location, mean intensity, global trend, interaction with the West African monsoon dynamics).

  15. The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX): A Core Element for the Asian Monsoon Year (2008-2009)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, WIlliam K. M.

    2007-01-01

    Tropospheric Aerosol: an International Regional Experiment (East-AIRE), and Radiation Aerosol Joint Observations - Monsoon Experiments over the Gangetic Himalayas Area (Rajo-Megha: dust cloud in Sanskrit) from the US, and Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIR) under the Earth Systems Science Partnership (ESSP) and WCRP. For JAMEX to succeed, it is crucial for an international body, such as CEOP or an organization under WCRP to provide the science oversight, data policy and stewardship, and to promote collaboration and partnership among national programs. It makes eminent sense for WCRP to expand the concept and the prototype proposed by JAMEX to include all monsoon countries to expand AMY08-09 into an International Monsoon Era (2008- 2013). Such an establishment followed by establishment of an international body for science oversight, and data stewardship will go a long way in promoting coordination and connection among various existing monsoon research programs within WCRP, and with burgeoning national programs on monsoon and aerosol research.

  16. The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX): A Core Element for the Asian Monsoon Year (2008-2009)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K.M.

    2007-01-01

    Tropospheric Aerosol: an International Regional Experiment (East-AIRE), and Radiation Aerosol Joint Observations - Monsoon Experiments over the Gangetic Himalayas Area (Rajo-Megha: dust cloud in Sanskrit) from the US, and Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIR) under the Earth Systems I Science Partnership (ESSP) and WCRP. For JAMEX to succeed, it is crucial for an international body, such as CEOP or an organization under WCRP to provide the science oversight, data policy and stewardship, and to promote collaboration and partnership among national programs. It makes eminent sense for WCRP to expand the concept and the prototype proposed by JAMEX to include all monsoon countries to expand AMY08-09 into an International Monsoon Era (2008- 2013). Such an establishment followed by establishment of an international body for science oversight, and data stewardship will go a long way in promoting coordination and connection among various existing monsoon research programs within WCRP, and with burgeoning national programs on monsoon and aerosol research.

  17. Discrimination and Cumulative Disease Damage Among African American Women With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

    PubMed Central

    Drenkard, Cristina M.; Lewis, Tené T.; Lim, S. Sam

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We examined associations between unfair treatment, attributions of unfair treatment to racial discrimination, and cumulative disease damage among African American women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods. We used multivariable regression models to examine SLE damage among 578 African American women in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, recruited to the Georgians Organized Against Lupus cohort. Results. When we controlled for demographic, socioeconomic, and health-related covariates, reporting any unfair treatment was associated with greater SLE damage compared with reporting no unfair treatment (b = 0.55; 95% confidence interval = 0.14, 0.97). In general, unfair treatment attributed to nonracial factors was more strongly associated with SLE damage than was unfair treatment attributed to racial discrimination, although the difference was not statistically significant. Conclusions. Unfair treatment may contribute to worse disease outcomes among African American women with SLE. Unfair treatment attributed to nonracial causes may have a more pronounced negative effect on SLE damage. Future research may further examine possible differences in the effect of unfair treatment by attribution. PMID:26270300

  18. A Systemic Functional Linguistic Analysis of the Utterances of Three South African Physical Sciences Teachers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jawahar, Kavish; Dempster, Edith R.

    2013-06-01

    In this study, the sociocultural view of science as a language and some quantitative language features of the complementary theoretical framework of systemic functional linguistics are employed to analyse the utterances of three South African Physical Sciences teachers. Using a multi-case study methodology, this study provides a sophisticated description of the utterances of Pietermaritzburg Physical Sciences teachers in language contexts characterised by varying proportions of English Second Language (ESL) students in each class. The results reveal that, as expected, lexical cohesion as measured by the cohesive harmony index and proportion of repeated content words relative to total words, increased with an increasing proportion of ESL students. However, the use of nominalisation by the teachers and the lexical density of their utterances did not decrease with an increasing proportion of ESL students. Furthermore, the results reveal that each individual Physical Sciences teacher had a 'signature' talk, unrelated to the language context in which they taught. This study signals the urgent and critical need for South African science teacher training programmes to place a greater emphasis on the functional use of language for different language contexts in order to empower South African Physical Sciences teachers to adequately apprentice their students into the use of the register of scientific English.

  19. Improving prediction of outcomes in African Americans with normal stress echocardiograms using a risk scoring system.

    PubMed

    Sutter, David A; Thomaides, Athanasios; Hornsby, Kyle; Mahenthiran, Jothiharan; Feigenbaum, Harvey; Sawada, Stephen G

    2013-06-01

    Cardiovascular mortality is high in African Americans, and those with normal results on stress echocardiography remain at increased risk. The aim of this study was to develop a risk scoring system to improve the prediction of cardiovascular events in African Americans with normal results on stress echocardiography. Clinical data and rest echocardiographic measurements were obtained in 548 consecutive African Americans with normal results on rest and stress echocardiography and ejection fractions ≥50%. Patients were followed for myocardial infarction and death for 3 years. Predictors of cardiovascular events were determined with Cox regression, and hazard ratios were used to determine the number of points in the risk score attributed to each independent predictor. During follow-up of 3 years, 47 patients (8.6%) had events. Five variables-age (≥45 years in men, ≥55 years in women), history of coronary disease, history of smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy, and exercise intolerance (<7 METs in men, <5 METs in women, or need for dobutamine stress)-were independent predictors of events. A risk score was derived for each patient (ranging from 0 to 8 risk points). The area under the curve for the risk score was 0.82 with the optimum cut-off risk score of 6. Among patients with risk scores ≥6, 30% had events, compared with 3% with risk score <6 (p <0.001). In conclusion, African Americans with normal results on stress echocardiography remain at significant risk for cardiovascular events. A risk score can be derived from clinical and echocardiographic variables, which can accurately distinguish high- and low-risk patients.

  20. Trans-African drainage system of the Sahara: Was it the Nile?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burke, Kevin; Wells, Gordon L.

    1989-08-01

    An exciting result of the first spaceborne radar scans of the eastern Sahara has been the recognition of drainage channels buried at depths of several metres below the dry desert sand. We relate these observations to the megageomorphological evolution of Africa and conclude that the"radar river" valleys may have been parts of an old Nile River system rather than courses cut by a postulated westward-flowing trans-African drainage system (TADS) extending from the Red Sea Hills to the Niger Delta.

  1. Three million years of monsoon variability over the northern Sahara

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larrasoana, J. C.; Roberts, A. P.; Rohling, E. J.; Winklhofer, M.; Wehausen, R.

    2003-04-01

    We present a 3 million-year record of aeolian dust supply into the eastern Mediterranean Sea, based on hematite contents derived from magnetic properties of sediments form ODP Site 967. Our record has an average temporal resolution of ˜400~years. We deduce that the aeolian hematite in eastern Mediterranean sediments derived from eastern Algerian, Libyan, and western Egyptian lowlands located north of the central Saharan watershed (˜21o~N). We relate dust-flux minima to penetration of the African summer monsoon front to the north of the central Saharan watershed. This would have enhanced soil humidity and vegetation cover in the source regions, in agreement with results from "green Sahara" climate models. Our results indicate that this northward monsoon penetration occured pervasively during insolation maxima throughout the last 3 million years. As would be expected, this orbital precession-scale mechanism is modulated on both short (95 kyr) and long (406 kyr) eccentricity time scales. We also observe a strong expression of the 41-kyr obliquity cycle. There is a marked increase in sub-Milankovitch variability around the Mid-Pleistocene transition (˜0.95~Ma), which suggests a link between millennial-scale variability, including monsoon dynamics, and the size of the northern hemisphere ice sheets.

  2. Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Fei; Chai, Jing; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Zhang, Xiao; Wang, Zhiyuan

    2016-01-01

    Climate variation of global monsoon (GM) precipitation involves both internal feedback and external forcing. Here, we focus on strong volcanic forcing since large eruptions are known to be a dominant mechanism in natural climate change. It is not known whether large volcanoes erupted at different latitudes have distinctive effects on the monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We address this issue using a 1500-year volcanic sensitivity simulation by the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Volcanoes are classified into three types based on their meridional aerosol distributions: NH volcanoes, SH volcanoes and equatorial volcanoes. Using the model simulation, we discover that the GM precipitation in one hemisphere is enhanced significantly by the remote volcanic forcing occurring in the other hemisphere. This remote volcanic forcing-induced intensification is mainly through circulation change rather than moisture content change. In addition, the NH volcanic eruptions are more efficient in reducing the NH monsoon precipitation than the equatorial ones, and so do the SH eruptions in weakening the SH monsoon, because the equatorial eruptions, despite reducing moisture content, have weaker effects in weakening the off-equatorial monsoon circulation than the subtropical-extratropical volcanoes do. PMID:27063141

  3. Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Fei; Chai, Jing; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Zhang, Xiao; Wang, Zhiyuan

    2016-04-01

    Climate variation of global monsoon (GM) precipitation involves both internal feedback and external forcing. Here, we focus on strong volcanic forcing since large eruptions are known to be a dominant mechanism in natural climate change. It is not known whether large volcanoes erupted at different latitudes have distinctive effects on the monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We address this issue using a 1500-year volcanic sensitivity simulation by the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Volcanoes are classified into three types based on their meridional aerosol distributions: NH volcanoes, SH volcanoes and equatorial volcanoes. Using the model simulation, we discover that the GM precipitation in one hemisphere is enhanced significantly by the remote volcanic forcing occurring in the other hemisphere. This remote volcanic forcing-induced intensification is mainly through circulation change rather than moisture content change. In addition, the NH volcanic eruptions are more efficient in reducing the NH monsoon precipitation than the equatorial ones, and so do the SH eruptions in weakening the SH monsoon, because the equatorial eruptions, despite reducing moisture content, have weaker effects in weakening the off-equatorial monsoon circulation than the subtropical-extratropical volcanoes do.

  4. Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions.

    PubMed

    Liu, Fei; Chai, Jing; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Zhang, Xiao; Wang, Zhiyuan

    2016-01-01

    Climate variation of global monsoon (GM) precipitation involves both internal feedback and external forcing. Here, we focus on strong volcanic forcing since large eruptions are known to be a dominant mechanism in natural climate change. It is not known whether large volcanoes erupted at different latitudes have distinctive effects on the monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We address this issue using a 1500-year volcanic sensitivity simulation by the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Volcanoes are classified into three types based on their meridional aerosol distributions: NH volcanoes, SH volcanoes and equatorial volcanoes. Using the model simulation, we discover that the GM precipitation in one hemisphere is enhanced significantly by the remote volcanic forcing occurring in the other hemisphere. This remote volcanic forcing-induced intensification is mainly through circulation change rather than moisture content change. In addition, the NH volcanic eruptions are more efficient in reducing the NH monsoon precipitation than the equatorial ones, and so do the SH eruptions in weakening the SH monsoon, because the equatorial eruptions, despite reducing moisture content, have weaker effects in weakening the off-equatorial monsoon circulation than the subtropical-extratropical volcanoes do. PMID:27063141

  5. Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions.

    PubMed

    Liu, Fei; Chai, Jing; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Zhang, Xiao; Wang, Zhiyuan

    2016-04-11

    Climate variation of global monsoon (GM) precipitation involves both internal feedback and external forcing. Here, we focus on strong volcanic forcing since large eruptions are known to be a dominant mechanism in natural climate change. It is not known whether large volcanoes erupted at different latitudes have distinctive effects on the monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We address this issue using a 1500-year volcanic sensitivity simulation by the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Volcanoes are classified into three types based on their meridional aerosol distributions: NH volcanoes, SH volcanoes and equatorial volcanoes. Using the model simulation, we discover that the GM precipitation in one hemisphere is enhanced significantly by the remote volcanic forcing occurring in the other hemisphere. This remote volcanic forcing-induced intensification is mainly through circulation change rather than moisture content change. In addition, the NH volcanic eruptions are more efficient in reducing the NH monsoon precipitation than the equatorial ones, and so do the SH eruptions in weakening the SH monsoon, because the equatorial eruptions, despite reducing moisture content, have weaker effects in weakening the off-equatorial monsoon circulation than the subtropical-extratropical volcanoes do.

  6. The systemic pathology of cerebral malaria in African children

    PubMed Central

    Milner, Danny A.; Whitten, Richard O.; Kamiza, Steve; Carr, Richard; Liomba, George; Dzamalala, Charles; Seydel, Karl B.; Molyneux, Malcolm E.; Taylor, Terrie E.

    2014-01-01

    Pediatric cerebral malaria carries a high mortality rate in sub-Saharan Africa. We present our systematic analysis of the descriptive and quantitative histopathology of all organs sampled from a series of 103 autopsies performed between 1996 and 2010 in Blantyre, Malawi on pediatric cerebral malaria patients and control patients (without coma, or without malaria infection) who were clinically well characterized prior to death. We found brain swelling in all cerebral malaria patients and the majority of controls. The histopathology in patients with sequestration of parasites in the brain demonstrated two patterns: (a) the “classic” appearance (i.e., ring hemorrhages, dense sequestration, and extra-erythrocytic pigment) which was associated with evidence of systemic activation of coagulation and (b) the “sequestration only” appearance associated with shorter duration of illness and higher total burden of parasites in all organs including the spleen. Sequestration of parasites was most intense in the gastrointestinal tract in all parasitemic patients (those with cerebral malarial and those without). PMID:25191643

  7. Benue trough and the mid-African rift system

    SciTech Connect

    Thomas, D.

    1996-01-29

    Large areas of the Anambra and Gongola basins have distinct petroleum exploration problems: a geologically persistent high geothermal gradient that promoted Cretaceous source rock maturation into the gas phase very early on; intrusive lead-zinc mineralization veins attributed to the Senonian igneous and folding event; and meteoric water-flushing along the periphery of the basins. From preliminary analysis, these basins have to be considered high risk for the discovery of commercial oil accumulations. On the other hand, the petroleum potential of the Bornu basins seems favorable. This Nigerian northernmost rift basin continues into the Kanem basin of western Chad, which has proven oil accumulations in Coniacian deltaic sands. Cretaceous paleofacies is considered to be relatively continuous throughout both basins. Paleo-geothermal history is also considered to be similar, although some igneous activity is recorded in the Bornu basin (Senonian?). There is a very real possibility of kerogen-rich non-marine basal Albo-Aptian basin fill lacustrine source rocks, as found in the Doba basin, could be present in the deepest sections of the Nigerian rift basins. Due to the depths involved, no well is expected to penetrate the incipient graben-fill stage sequences; however, possible oil migration from these tectono-stratigraphic units would certainly enhance the petroleum potential of cooler sections of the rift system. As opposed to interpreted thermogenic gas which seems to be prevalent in the Anambra basin.

  8. The use of modern quality improvement approaches to strengthen African health systems: a 5-year agenda.

    PubMed

    Heiby, James

    2014-04-01

    There is a growing international consensus that African health systems need to improve, but no agreement on how to accomplish this. From the perspective of modern quality improvement (QI), a central issue for low performance in these health systems is the relative neglect of health-care processes. Both health system leaders and international donors have focused their efforts elsewhere, producing noteworthy health gains. But these gains are at risk if health systems do not develop the capacity to study and improve care processes. Substantial experience with QI in Africa shows impressive potential for broad-based process improvement. But this experience also highlights the need for modifying these growing programs to incorporate a more rigorous learning component to address challenges that have emerged recently. The addition of a region-wide knowledge management program could increase the efficiency of each country's QI program by learning from the experiences of other programs. With a coordinated donor initiative, it is reasonable to project that within 5 years, evidence-based improvement will become a norm in health services, and African health systems will approach the model of a learning organization.

  9. Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part II: Simulations in the ENSEMBLES project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Shujie; Rodó, Xavier; Song, Yongjia; Cash, Benjamin A.

    2012-09-01

    We assess the ability of individual models (single-model ensembles) and the multi-model ensemble (MME) in the European Union-funded ENSEMBLES project to simulate the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; specifically in 10-20-day and 30-50-day frequency bands) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. This assessment is made on the basis of the dynamical linkages identified from the analysis of observations in a companion study to this work. In general, all models show reasonable skill in simulating the active and break cycles of the 30-50-day ISOs over the Indian summer monsoon region. This skill is closely associated with the proper reproduction of both the northward propagation of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the variations of monsoon circulation in this band. However, the models do not manage to correctly simulate the eastward propagation of the 30-50-day ISOs in the western/central tropical Pacific and the eastward extension of the ITCZ in a northwest to southeast tilt. This limitation is closely associated with a limited capacity of models to accurately reproduce the magnitudes of intraseasonal anomalies of both the ITCZ in the Asian tropical summer monsoon regions and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Poor reproduction of the activity of the western Pacific subtropical high on intraseasonal time scales also amplify this limitation. Conversely, the models make good reproduction of the WG 10-20-day ISOs. This success is closely related to good performance of the models in the representation of the northward propagation of the ITCZ, which is partially promoted by local air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean in this higher-frequency band. Although the feature of westward propagation is generally represented in the simulated BoB 10-20-day ISOs, the air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean are spuriously active in the models. This leads to active WG rainfall, which is not

  10. Aerosol interactions with African/Atlantic climate dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseinpour, F.; Wilcox, E. M.

    2014-07-01

    Mechanistic relationships exist between variability of dust in the oceanic Saharan air layer (OSAL) and transient changes in the dynamics of Western Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This study provides evidence of possible interactions between dust in the OSAL region and African easterly jet-African easterly wave (AEJ-AEW) system in the climatology of boreal summer, when easterly wave activity peaks. Synoptic-scale changes in instability and precipitation in the African/Atlantic intertropical convergence zone are correlated with enhanced aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the OSAL region in response to anomalous 3D overturning circulations and upstream/downstream thermal anomalies at above and below the mean-AEJ level. Upstream and downstream anomalies are referred to the daily thermal/dynamical changes over the West African monsoon region and the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, respectively. Our hypothesis is that AOD in the OSAL is positively correlated with the downstream AEWs and negatively correlated with the upstream waves from climatological perspective. The similarity between the 3D pattern of thermal/dynamical anomalies correlated with dust outbreaks and those of AEWs provides a mechanism for dust radiative heating in the atmosphere to reinforce AEW activity. We proposed that the interactions of OSAL dust with regional climate mainly occur through coupling of dust with the AEWs.

  11. Systemic mastocytosis in an African fat-tail gecko (Hemitheconyx caudicinctus).

    PubMed

    Irizarry Rovira, A R; Holzer, T R; Credille, K M

    2014-07-01

    A 3-year-old African fat-tail gecko (Hemitheconyx caudicinctus) suddenly became lethargic and died 2 days later. Necropsy examination revealed a submandibular mass and discolouration of the liver, kidneys and skeletal muscles of the tail. Microscopical evaluation revealed neoplastic mast cells in the skin, liver, kidneys, skeletal muscles, bones, spleen, uterus, ovaries and lungs. Exfoliative cytological, histopathological and ultrastructural features were consistent with systemic mastocytosis. Neoplastic proliferative disorders of mast cells are rare in reptiles and this is the first report of mast cell neoplasia in geckos.

  12. A persistent northern boundary of Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation over Central Asia during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramisch, Arne; Lockot, Gregori; Haberzettl, Torsten; Hartmann, Kai; Kuhn, Gerhard; Lehmkuhl, Frank; Schimpf, Stefan; Schulte, Philipp; Stauch, Georg; Wang, Rong; Wünnemann, Bernd; Yan, Dada; Zhang, Yongzhan; Diekmann, Bernhard

    2016-05-01

    Extra-tropical circulation systems impede poleward moisture advection by the Indian Summer Monsoon. In this context, the Himalayan range is believed to insulate the south Asian circulation from extra-tropical influences and to delineate the northern extent of the Indian Summer Monsoon in central Asia. Paleoclimatic evidence, however, suggests increased moisture availability in the Early Holocene north of the Himalayan range which is attributed to an intensification of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Nevertheless, mechanisms leading to a surpassing of the Himalayan range and the northern maximum extent of summer monsoonal influence remain unknown. Here we show that the Kunlun barrier on the northern Tibetan Plateau [~36°N] delimits Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation during the Holocene. The presence of the barrier relocates the insulation effect 1,000 km further north, allowing a continental low intensity branch of the Indian Summer Monsoon which is persistent throughout the Holocene. Precipitation intensities at its northern extent seem to be driven by differentiated solar heating of the Northern Hemisphere indicating dependency on energy-gradients rather than absolute radiation intensities. The identified spatial constraints of monsoonal precipitation will facilitate the prediction of future monsoonal precipitation patterns in Central Asia under varying climatic conditions.

  13. A persistent northern boundary of Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation over Central Asia during the Holocene.

    PubMed

    Ramisch, Arne; Lockot, Gregori; Haberzettl, Torsten; Hartmann, Kai; Kuhn, Gerhard; Lehmkuhl, Frank; Schimpf, Stefan; Schulte, Philipp; Stauch, Georg; Wang, Rong; Wünnemann, Bernd; Yan, Dada; Zhang, Yongzhan; Diekmann, Bernhard

    2016-05-13

    Extra-tropical circulation systems impede poleward moisture advection by the Indian Summer Monsoon. In this context, the Himalayan range is believed to insulate the south Asian circulation from extra-tropical influences and to delineate the northern extent of the Indian Summer Monsoon in central Asia. Paleoclimatic evidence, however, suggests increased moisture availability in the Early Holocene north of the Himalayan range which is attributed to an intensification of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Nevertheless, mechanisms leading to a surpassing of the Himalayan range and the northern maximum extent of summer monsoonal influence remain unknown. Here we show that the Kunlun barrier on the northern Tibetan Plateau [~36°N] delimits Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation during the Holocene. The presence of the barrier relocates the insulation effect 1,000 km further north, allowing a continental low intensity branch of the Indian Summer Monsoon which is persistent throughout the Holocene. Precipitation intensities at its northern extent seem to be driven by differentiated solar heating of the Northern Hemisphere indicating dependency on energy-gradients rather than absolute radiation intensities. The identified spatial constraints of monsoonal precipitation will facilitate the prediction of future monsoonal precipitation patterns in Central Asia under varying climatic conditions.

  14. A persistent northern boundary of Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation over Central Asia during the Holocene.

    PubMed

    Ramisch, Arne; Lockot, Gregori; Haberzettl, Torsten; Hartmann, Kai; Kuhn, Gerhard; Lehmkuhl, Frank; Schimpf, Stefan; Schulte, Philipp; Stauch, Georg; Wang, Rong; Wünnemann, Bernd; Yan, Dada; Zhang, Yongzhan; Diekmann, Bernhard

    2016-01-01

    Extra-tropical circulation systems impede poleward moisture advection by the Indian Summer Monsoon. In this context, the Himalayan range is believed to insulate the south Asian circulation from extra-tropical influences and to delineate the northern extent of the Indian Summer Monsoon in central Asia. Paleoclimatic evidence, however, suggests increased moisture availability in the Early Holocene north of the Himalayan range which is attributed to an intensification of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Nevertheless, mechanisms leading to a surpassing of the Himalayan range and the northern maximum extent of summer monsoonal influence remain unknown. Here we show that the Kunlun barrier on the northern Tibetan Plateau [~36°N] delimits Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation during the Holocene. The presence of the barrier relocates the insulation effect 1,000 km further north, allowing a continental low intensity branch of the Indian Summer Monsoon which is persistent throughout the Holocene. Precipitation intensities at its northern extent seem to be driven by differentiated solar heating of the Northern Hemisphere indicating dependency on energy-gradients rather than absolute radiation intensities. The identified spatial constraints of monsoonal precipitation will facilitate the prediction of future monsoonal precipitation patterns in Central Asia under varying climatic conditions. PMID:27173918

  15. A persistent northern boundary of Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation over Central Asia during the Holocene

    PubMed Central

    Ramisch, Arne; Lockot, Gregori; Haberzettl, Torsten; Hartmann, Kai; Kuhn, Gerhard; Lehmkuhl, Frank; Schimpf, Stefan; Schulte, Philipp; Stauch, Georg; Wang, Rong; Wünnemann, Bernd; Yan, Dada; Zhang, Yongzhan; Diekmann, Bernhard

    2016-01-01

    Extra-tropical circulation systems impede poleward moisture advection by the Indian Summer Monsoon. In this context, the Himalayan range is believed to insulate the south Asian circulation from extra-tropical influences and to delineate the northern extent of the Indian Summer Monsoon in central Asia. Paleoclimatic evidence, however, suggests increased moisture availability in the Early Holocene north of the Himalayan range which is attributed to an intensification of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Nevertheless, mechanisms leading to a surpassing of the Himalayan range and the northern maximum extent of summer monsoonal influence remain unknown. Here we show that the Kunlun barrier on the northern Tibetan Plateau [~36°N] delimits Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation during the Holocene. The presence of the barrier relocates the insulation effect 1,000 km further north, allowing a continental low intensity branch of the Indian Summer Monsoon which is persistent throughout the Holocene. Precipitation intensities at its northern extent seem to be driven by differentiated solar heating of the Northern Hemisphere indicating dependency on energy-gradients rather than absolute radiation intensities. The identified spatial constraints of monsoonal precipitation will facilitate the prediction of future monsoonal precipitation patterns in Central Asia under varying climatic conditions. PMID:27173918

  16. Contrasting a non-developing African mesoscale convective system with the precursor to Hurricane Helene (2006)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivera, G.; Fuentes, J. D.; Evans, J. L.; Hamilton, H. L.

    2015-12-01

    Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in West Africa traverse strong thermodynamic gradients during their westward propagation from land to ocean. Some of the systems continue to develop after crossing the coastline and may ultimately develop into tropical cyclones, while others do not. Understanding the lifecycle behavior of these convective systems and the factors that contribute to their continuous development as they transition from a continental environment to a marine environment poses a challenge. We examine the difference between two MCSs, one that continued to develop when it crossed the West African coast and one that did not, using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA Interim) and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) 3B42 data. The non-developing MCS that intensified briefly while over land, weakened as soon as it crossed the coast. Preliminary results show that the developing MCS interacted with two cyclonic vortices, one associated with an African Easterly Wave that was propagating towards the coast and the other vortex generated by the topography near the coast.

  17. Relationship between the Indian summer monsoon and the large-scale circulation variability over the Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizou, Despoina; Flocas, Helena A.; Athanasiadis, Panos; Bartzokas, Aristides

    2015-01-01

    In this study the impact of the Indian summer monsoon on the large scale variability of the atmospheric circulation over the Mediterranean is investigated on an inter-annual time scale. Composite and correlation analysis results are presented, outlining different circulation patterns in the upper and lower troposphere for strong and weak monsoon years respectively. For this purpose ERA-40 Reanalysis monthly mean data at various isobaric levels together with the standardized All India Rainfall Index for boreal summer (June-July-August-September) of a 44-year period were employed. During strong monsoon years many atmospheric circulation systems appear strengthened over Eurasia, resembling a well-organized Rossby wave train over the area. In the upper troposphere a meridional shift of the jet streams over the examined area was also identified during extreme monsoon years. On the other hand, in the lower troposphere enhanced northerlies (Etesians) appear to dominate over Eastern Mediterranean along with intensified subsidence during strong monsoon years.

  18. Topographic development in the late Neogene and the impact on African vegetation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, Gerlinde; Prange, Matthias; Schulz, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Hominid evolution, specifically the split of the hominid-chimpansee lineages in the late Miocene has long been hypothesized to be linked to the retreat of the tropical rainforest in Africa in the late Miocene. A main cause for the climatic and vegetation change often considered was uplift of Africa but also uplift of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau was suggested to have contributed to an intensification of the African-Asian monsoon system and hence impacted rainfall distribution over Eastern Africa. In contrast, more recent proxy data suggest that open grassland habitats were available to human ancestors and apes long before their divergence and that there is no evidence for a closed rainforest in the late Miocene. We use the coupled global circulation model CCSM3 with an online coupled dynamic vegetation module to investigate the impact of the uplift processes on the African-Asian monsoon circulation and consequent changes in tropical African vegetation. The model is run with a resolution of T85 (~1.4°) for the atmosphere and land surface and a variable resolution for the computation of ocean and sea ice down to a meridional grid spacing of 0.3° around the equator. We performed a set of sensitivity experiments, altering elevations of the Himalaya and the Tibet Plateau and of East and South Africa separately and in combination from half to full present day level. The simulations confirm the dominant impact of the East and South African uplift for climate and vegetation development of the African tropics. Only a weak, but significant, impact of the prescribed Asian Uplift on African monsoon and vegetation development could be detected. Himalaya/Tibet Plateau uplift lead to slightly dryer conditions in Central Africa and small increases in rainfall over East Africa. According to the model simulations topographic uplift of Africa significantly altered rainfall in Central Africa, which coincides with proxy records from the Congo basin showing a change towards

  19. Quaternary Indus River Terraces as Archives of Summer Monsoon Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonell, Tara N.; Clift, Peter D.

    2013-04-01

    If we are to interpret the marine stratigraphic record in terms of evolving continental environmental conditions or tectonics, it is essential to understand the transport processes that bring sediment from mountain sources to its final marine depocenter. We investigate the role that climate plays in modulating this flux by looking at the Indus River system, which is dominated by the strong forcing of the Asian monsoon and the erosion of the western Himalaya. Lake, paleoceanographic, and speleothem records offer high-resolution reconstructions of monsoon intensity over millennial timescales. These proxies suggest the monsoon reached peak intensity at ~9-10 ka in central India, followed by a steady decline after ~7 ka, with a steep decline after 4 ka. New lake core records (Tso Kar and Tso Moriri), however, suggest a more complex pattern of monsoon weakening between 7-8 ka in the Greater Himalayan region, which contrasts with a time of strong monsoon in central India. This indicates that the floodplains of the major river systems may not experience the same climatic conditions as their mountain sources, resulting in different geomorphologic responses to climate change. Earlier research has established that the northern part of the Indus floodplain adjacent to the mountains experienced incision after ~10 ka. Incision and reworking is even more intense in the Himalayas but its timing is not well-constrained. High altitude river valleys, at least north of the Greater Himalaya, appear to be sensitive to monsoon strength because they lie on the periphery of the Himalayan rain shadow. These valleys may be affected by landslide damming during periods of strong monsoonal precipitation, such as slightly after the monsoon maximum from 9-10 ka. Damming of these river valleys provides sediment storage through valley-filling and later sediment release through gradual incision or dam-bursting. Terraces of a major tributary to the Indus, the Zanskar River, indicate valley

  20. Changes in biological productivity along the northwest African margin over the past 20,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradtmiller, Louisa I.; McGee, David; Awalt, Mitchell; Evers, Joseph; Yerxa, Haley; Kinsley, Christopher W.; deMenocal, Peter B.

    2016-01-01

    The intertropical convergence zone and the African monsoon system are highly sensitive to climate forcing at orbital and millennial timescales. Both systems influence the strength and direction of the trade winds along northwest Africa and thus directly impact coastal upwelling. Sediment cores from the northwest African margin record upwelling-related changes in biological productivity connected to changes in regional and hemispheric climate. We present records of 230Th-normalized biogenic opal and Corg fluxes using a meridional transect of four cores from 19°N-31°N along the northwest African margin to examine changes in paleoproductivity since the last glacial maximum. We find large changes in biogenic fluxes synchronous with changes in eolian fluxes calculated using end-member modeling, suggesting that paleoproductivity and dust fluxes were strongly coupled, likely linked by changes in wind strength. Opal and Corg fluxes increase at all sites during Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas, consistent with an overall intensification of the trade winds, and changes in the meridional flux gradient indicate a southward wind shift at these times. Biogenic fluxes were lowest, and the meridional flux gradients were weakest during the African Humid Period when the monsoon was invigorated due to precessional changes, with greater rainfall and weaker trade winds over northwest Africa. These results expand the spatial coverage of previous paleoproxy studies showing similar changes, and they provide support for modeling studies showing changes in wind strength and direction consistent with increased upwelling during abrupt coolings and decreased upwelling during the African Humid Period.

  1. Perceived parental security profiles in African American adolescents involved in the juvenile justice system.

    PubMed

    Andretta, James R; Ramirez, Aaron M; Barnes, Michael E; Odom, Terri; Roberson-Adams, Shelia; Woodland, Malcolm H

    2015-12-01

    Many researchers have shown the importance of parent attachment in childhood and adolescence. The present study extends the attachment literature to African Americans involved in the juvenile justice system (N = 213), and provides an initial inquiry using person-oriented methods. The average age was 16.17 years (SD = 1.44), and the sample was predominantly male (71%). Results of a confirmatory factor analysis of Inventory of Parent and Peer Attachment-Short Form (IPPA-S) scores supported a 3-factor model: (a) Communication, (b) Trust, and (c) Alienation. Model-based clustering was applied to IPPA-S scores, and results pointed to 4 perceived parental security profiles: high security, moderately high security, moderately low security, and low security. In keeping with our hypotheses, IPPA-S profiles were associated with prosocial behaviors, depression, anxiety, and oppositional defiance. Contrary to hypotheses, IPPA-S profiles were not associated with perspective taking, emotional concern, or behaviors characteristic of a conduct disorder. Results also showed that gender, age, family member with whom the participant resides, charge severity, and offense history did not have an effect on IPPA-S clustering. Implications for therapeutic jurisprudence in African Americans involved with the juvenile justice system are provided.

  2. The 1990 to 1991 Sudan earthquake sequence and the extent of the East african rift system.

    PubMed

    Girdler, R W; McConnell, D A

    1994-04-01

    One of the largest earthquakes ever recorded in Africa (surface wave magnitude M(s) = 7.2) occurred about 50 kilometers east of the Upper River Nile on 20 May 1990. Four days later, two more large earthquakes (M(s) = 6.4 and 7.0) occurred about 50 kilometers to the northwest in the Nile Valley. In the following months, a further 60 events were recorded by seismic stations worldwide. The earthquakes are associated with two fault systems: one east of the Nile with azimuth southeast and one along the Nile Valley with azimuth north-northeast. The activity alternated between the two fault systems and indicates that the northern extremity of the western branch of the East African Rift System extends at least 350 kilometers north of Lake Albert.

  3. Evaluation of Global Monsoon Precipitation Changes based on Five Reanalysis Datasets

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Renping; Zhou, Tianjun; Qian, Yun

    2014-02-01

    With the motivation to identify whether or not a reasonably simulated atmospheric circulation would necessarily lead to a successful reproduction of monsoon precipitation, the performances of five sets of reanalysis data (NCEP2, ERA40, JRA25, ERA-Interim and MERRA) in reproducing the climatology, interannual variation and long-term trend of global monsoon (GM) precipitation are comprehensively evaluated. In order to better understand the variability and long-term trend of GM precipitation, we also examined the major components of water budget, including evaporation, water vapor convergence and the change in local water vapor storage, based on five reanalysis datasets. The results show that all five reanalysis data reasonably reproduce the climatology of GM precipitation. The ERA-Interim (NCEP2) shows the highest (lowest) skill among the five datasets. The observed GM precipitation shows an increasing tendency during 1979-2001 along with a strong interannual variability, which is reasonably reproduced by the five sets of reanalysis data. The observed increasing trend of GM precipitation is dominated by the contribution from the North African, North American and Australian monsoons. All five data fail in reproducing the increasing tendency of North African monsoon precipitation. The wind convergence term in water budget equation dominate the GM precipitation variation, indicating a consistency between the GM precipitation and the seasonal change of prevailing wind.

  4. An informatics system to support knowledge management in the health sector--the South African National Health Knowledge Network.

    PubMed

    Louw, J A; Seebregts, C J; Makgoba, W M; Fouché, B

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses the planning and development of a South African national health knowledge network. The methodology is in essence based on the principles of knowledge management and the drivers of a system of innovation. The knowledge network, SA HealthInfo, aims to provide a one-stop interactive forum/resource, for quality-controlled and evidence-based health research information, to a wide spectrum of users, at various levels of aggregation, with the necessary security arrangements and facilities for interaction among users to promote explicit (codified) and tacit knowledge flow. It will therefore stimulate the process of innovation within the South African health system.

  5. Insolation and Abrupt Climate Change Effects on the Western Pacific Maritime Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.; Cardenas, M. B.; Siringan, F. P.; Banner, J. L.; lin, K.; Taylor, F. W.

    2012-12-01

    The response of the Asian-Australian monsoon system to changes in summer insolation over the Holocene is recorded in many monsoon-sensitive paleoclimate reconstructions. The response is commonly direct; more summer insolation leads to increased monsoon rainfall over land as captured in stalagmite δ18O records from Oman and China. We evaluate this direct response using a maritime stalagmite record from the island of Palawan, Philippines (10 N, 119 E). The wet season in Palawan occurs over the same months (June-October) as in Oman, India and China. Therefore, we expected the stalagmite δ18O record from Palawan, a proxy of rainfall, to have a similar trend of decreasing monsoon rainfall over the Holocene. However, the Holocene trend in stalagmite δ18O is opposite to that expected: rainfall increases over the Holocene. Our explanation for the Holocene trend observed at Palawan is that the increase in the maritime monsoon balances the reduction in the land monsoon; an explanation that is consistent with previously published coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model results. Seawater δ18O reconstructions from marine sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific contain a freshening trend over the Holocene, also supporting the hypothesis of increase maritime monsoon rainfall. However, the decrease in maritime monsoon rainfall during the Younger Dryas at Palawan matches that observed in Chinese stalagmite records, meeting our original expectation of a similar wet season response in the various Asian-Australian monsoon records. One explanation for the similar Younger Dryas response in these monsoon records is the influence of seasonal changes in sea ice coverage, as previously suggested. A stalagmite δ18O record from Borneo (~800 km SE of Palawan), which lacks evidence of the Younger Dryas, provides supporting evidence for this explanation.

  6. Monsoon-Enso Relationships: A New Paradigm

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K. M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    This article is partly a review and partly a new research paper on monsoon-ENSO relationship. The paper begins with a discussion of the basic relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO dating back to the work of Sir Gilbert Walker up to research results in more recent years. Various factors that may affect the monsoon-ENSO, relationship, including regional coupled ocean-atmosphere processes, Eurasian snow cover, land-atmosphere hydrologic feedback, intraseasonal oscillation, biennial variability and inter-decadal variations, are discussed. The extreme complex and highly nonlinear nature of the monsoon-ENSO relationship is stressed. We find that for regional impacts on the monsoon, El Nino and La Nina are far from simply mirror images of each other. These two polarities of ENSO can have strong or no impacts on monsoon anomalies depending on the strength of the intraseasonal oscillations and the phases of the inter-decadal variations. For the Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) as a whole, the ENSO impact is effected through a east-west shift in the Walker Circulation. For rainfall anomalies over specific monsoon areas, regional processes play important roles in addition to the shift in the Walker Circulation. One of the key regional processes identified for the boreal summer monsoon is the anomalous West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA). This regional feature has similar signatures in interannual and intraseasonal time scales and appears to determine whether the monsoon-ENSO relationship is strong or weak in a given year. Another important regional feature includes a rainfall and SST dipole across the Indian Ocean, which may have strong impact on the austral summer monsoon. Results are shown indicating that monsoon surface wind forcings may induce a strong biennial signal in ENSO and that strong monsoon-ENSO coupling may translate into pronounced biennial variability in ENSO. Finally, a new paradigm is proposed for the study of monsoon variability. This paradigm provides

  7. Global Monsoon Rainfall - What the future holds?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Endo, H.; Kitoh, A.; Kumar, K.; Cavalcanti, I. F.; Goswami, P.; Zhou, T.

    2012-12-01

    We provide a latest view of global as well as regional monsoonal rainfall and their changes in the twenty-first century as projected by state-of-the-art climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The global monsoon area (GMA) defined based on the annual range in precipitation will expand mainly over the central to eastern tropical Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean, and eastern Asia. The global monsoon intensity (GMI) and the global monsoon total precipitation (GMP) are likely to increase, implying that monsoon-related precipitation will remarkably increase in a warmer climate. Heavy precipitation indices are projected to increase much more than the mean precipitation, and their percentage changes depend more on the emission scenario compared to those for mean precipitation. Over the Asian monsoon domain, median increase rate for precipitation is larger than that over other monsoon domains, indicating that the sensitivity of Asian monsoon to global warming is stronger than that of other monsoons. For seasonal progress of monsoon rainfall, CMIP5 models project that the monsoon retreat dates will delay, while the onset dates will either advance or show no change, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season. It is found that the increase of the global monsoon precipitation can be attributed to the increases of moisture convergence due to increased water vapor in the air column and surface evaporation, offset to a certain extent by the weakening of the monsoon circulation (Figure 1).Figure 1: Time series of anomalies during summer season (%; 20 years running mean) relative to the base period average (1986-2005) over the land global monsoon domain for (a) precipitation (mm day-1), (b) evaporation (mm day-1), (c) water vapor flux convergence in the lower (below 500hPa) troposphere (mm day-1), and (d) wind convergence in the lower troposphere (10-3 kg m-2 s-1), based on 23 CMIP5 model monthly outputs. Historical (grey

  8. Seasonal evolution of the West African heat low: a climatological perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavaysse, C.; Flamant, C.; Janicot, S.; Parker, D. J.; Lafore, J.-P.; Sultan, B.; Pelon, J.

    2009-08-01

    The West African heat low (WAHL), a region of high surface temperatures and low surface pressures, is a key element of the West African monsoon system. In this study, we propose a method to detect the WAHL in order to monitor its climatological seasonal displacement over West Africa during the period 1979-2001, using the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-40 reanalyses. The low-level atmospheric thickness (LLAT), a variable defined as the difference of geopotential heights at 700 and 925 hPa, is used to detect the dilatation of these levels generated by an increase of the temperature. We define grid points with 10% highest values of the LLAT as the WAHL. We show that our method reliably positions the WAHL over areas of high surface temperatures and low surface pressures, and that it is effective at detecting heat lows. In the course of the year, the climatological WAHL is shown to migrate north-westward from a position south of the Darfur mountains in the winter (November-March) to a location over the Sahara, between the Hoggar and the Atlas mountains, during the summer (June-September). The temperature tendency equation is used to investigate the processes controlling the displacement of the WAHL, and more particularly the heating at low levels. The specific period of the onset of the WAHL in its summer location over the Sahara (referred to as the Saharan heat low -SHL- onset) is also analysed during the 1984-2001 period, using complementary brightness temperature data from the European Union-funded Cloud Archive User Service (CLAUS). The climatological onset of the SHL occurs around 20 June, i.e. just before the climatological monsoon onset date. The present study suggests that the onset of the WAHL occurs approximately 5 days before the monsoon onset for the 1984-2001 period. This is confirmed independently by comparing the SHL onset date and the monsoon onset date for the 1984-2001 period. The seasonal evolution of the WAHL for the

  9. Plio-pleistocene African climate

    SciTech Connect

    deMenocal, P.B.

    1995-10-06

    Marine records of African climate variability document a shift toward more arid conditions after 2.8 million years ago (Ma), evidently resulting from remote forcing by cold North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures associated with the onset of Northern Hemisphere glacial cycles. African climate before 2.8 Ma was regulated by low-latitude insolation forcing of monsoonal climate due to Earth orbital precession. Major steps in the evolution of African hominids and other vertebrates are coincident with shifts to more arid, open conditions near 2.8 Ma, 1.7 Ma, and 1.0 Ma, suggesting that some Pliocene (Plio)-Pleistocene speciation events may have been climatically mediated. 65 refs., 6 figs.

  10. Plio-Pleistocene African Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demenocal, Peter B.

    1995-10-01

    Marine records of African climate variability document a shift toward more arid conditions after 2.8 million years ago (Ma), evidently resulting from remote forcing by cold North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures associated with the onset of Northern Hemisphere glacial cycles. African climate before 2.8 Ma was regulated by low-latitude insolation forcing of monsoonal climate due to Earth orbital precession. Major steps in the evolution of African hominids and other vertebrates are coincident with shifts to more arid, open conditions near 2.8 Ma, 1.7 Ma, and 1.0 Ma, suggesting that some Pliocene (Plio)-Pleistocene speciation events may have been climatically mediated.

  11. Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: The Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zorzi, Coralie; Sanchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda; Anupama, Krishnamurthy; Prasad, Srinivasan; Hanquiez, Vincent; Johnson, Joel; Giosan, Liviu

    2015-10-01

    In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric

  12. Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zorzi, Coralie; Fernanda Sanchez Goñi, Maria; Anupama, Krishnamurthy; Prasad, Srinivasan; Hanquiez, Vincent; Johnson, Joel; Giosan, Liviu

    2016-04-01

    In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4,200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4,200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric

  13. A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiemig, Vera; Bisselink, Bernard; Pappenberger, Florian; Thielen, Jutta

    2015-04-01

    The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions of the ECMWF and critical hydrological thresholds. In this study the predictive capability is investigated, to estimate AFFS' potential as an operational flood forecasting system for the whole of Africa. This is done in a hindcast mode, by reproducing pan-African hydrological predictions for the whole year of 2003 where important flood events were observed. Results were analysed in two ways, each with its individual objective. The first part of the analysis is of paramount importance for the assessment of AFFS as a flood forecasting system, as it focuses on the detection and prediction of flood events. Here, results were verified with reports of various flood archives such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory, the Emergency Event Database, the NASA Earth Observatory and Reliefweb. The number of hits, false alerts and missed alerts as well as the Probability of Detection, False Alarm Rate and Critical Success Index were determined for various conditions (different regions, flood durations, average amount of annual precipitations, size of affected areas and mean annual discharge). The second part of the analysis complements the first by giving a basic insight into the prediction skill of the general streamflow. For this, hydrological predictions were compared against observations at 36 key locations across Africa and the Continuous Rank Probability Skill Score (CRPSS), the limit of predictability and reliability were calculated. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (> 1 week) and large affected areas (> 10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas

  14. Non-local Impact of South and East Asian Aerosols on Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bollasina, M. A.; Bartlett, R. E.; Booth, B.; Dunstone, N. J.; Marenco, F.

    2015-12-01

    The powerful Asian monsoon is of vital importance to the billions of people who are reliant on its rainfall, especially considering that society within its domain is largely agrarian. This monsoon system comprises smaller regional components, including the Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon. These components are linked to one another through large scale circulation. The impacts of rapidly increasing anthropogenic aerosols over Asia on the monsoon have been widely studied. However, most studies consider only regional impacts, and not the subsequent effects on other geographical components of the system. We use observational and modelling methods to investigate the links between the regional components of the Asian monsoon and how they are affected by aerosols. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth are used in conjunction with precipitation and atmospheric reanalysis data to investigate the problem at interannual timescales. Modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES and GFDL CM3 are used to look at longer timescales and the potential influence of long term feedbacks. The HadGEM2 experiments use three time-evolving future anthropogenic aerosol emissions scenarios with the same time-evolving greenhouse gases. The GFDL CM3 experiments are forced by historical regional anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Using these methods, we look at the separate impact that South and East Asian aerosols have on monsoon onset and withdrawal. We focus on impacts in regions non-local to the aerosol source. We will also present proposed mechanisms for the apparent effects based on analysis of large scale circulation and atmospheric heating.

  15. Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Z. A.; Kwasniok, F.; Boulton, C. A.; Cox, P. M.; Jones, R. T.; Lenton, T. M.; Turney, C. S. M.

    2015-04-01

    Palaeo-records from China (Cheng et al., 2009; Wang et al., 2008, 2001) demonstrate the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is dominated by abrupt and large magnitude monsoon shifts on millennial timescales, switching between periods of high and weak monsoon rains. It has been hypothesised that over these timescales, the EASM exhibits two stable states with bifurcation-type tipping points between them (Schewe et al., 2012). Here we test this hypothesis by looking for early warning signals of past bifurcations in speleothem records from Sanbao Cave and Hulu Cave, China (Wang et al., 2008, 2001), spanning the penultimate glacial cycle, and in multiple model simulations derived from the data. We find hysteresis behaviour in our model simulations with transitions directly forced by solar insolation. We detect critical slowing down prior to an abrupt monsoon shift during the penultimate deglaciation consistent with long-term orbital forcing. However, such signals are only detectable when the change in system stability is sufficiently slow to be detected by the sampling resolution of the dataset, raising the possibility that the alarm was missed and a similar forcing drove earlier EASM shifts.

  16. Late Holocene primary productivity and sea surface temperature variations in the northeastern Arabian Sea: Implications for winter monsoon variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Böll, Anna; Lückge, Andreas; Munz, Philipp; Forke, Sven; Schulz, Hartmut; Ramaswamy, V.; Rixen, Tim; Gaye, Birgit; Emeis, Kay-Christian

    2014-08-01

    Variability in the oceanic environment of the Arabian Sea region is strongly influenced by the seasonal monsoon cycle of alternating wind directions. Prominent and well studied is the summer monsoon, but much less is known about late Holocene changes in winter monsoon strength with winds from the northeast that drive convective mixing and high surface ocean productivity in the northeastern Arabian Sea. To establish a high-resolution record of winter monsoon variability for the late Holocene, we analyzed alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) variations and proxies of primary productivity (organic carbon and δ15N) in a well-laminated sediment core from the Pakistan continental margin. Weak winter monsoon intensities off Pakistan are indicated from 400 B.C. to 250 A.D. by reduced productivity and relatively high SST. At about 250 A.D., the intensity of the winter monsoon increased off Pakistan as indicated by a trend to lower SST. We infer that monsoon conditions were relatively unstable from ~500 to 1300 A.D., because primary production and SST were highly variable. Declining SST and elevated biological production from 1400 to 1900 A.D. suggest invigorated convective winter mixing by strengthening winter monsoon circulation, most likely a regional expression of colder climate conditions during the Little Ice Age on the Northern Hemisphere. The comparison of winter monsoon intensity with records of summer monsoon intensity suggests that an inverse relationship between summer and winter monsoon strength exists in the Asian monsoon system during the late Holocene, effected by shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

  17. Orbital pacing and ocean circulation-induced collapses of the Mesoamerican monsoon over the past 22,000 y

    PubMed Central

    Lachniet, Matthew S.; Asmerom, Yemane; Bernal, Juan Pablo; Polyak, Victor J.; Vazquez-Selem, Lorenzo

    2013-01-01

    The dominant controls on global paleomonsoon strength include summer insolation driven by precession cycles, ocean circulation through its influence on atmospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperatures. However, few records from the summer North American Monsoon system are available to test for a synchronous response with other global monsoons to shared forcings. In particular, the monsoon response to widespread atmospheric reorganizations associated with disruptions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the deglacial period remains unconstrained. Here, we present a high-resolution and radiometrically dated monsoon rainfall reconstruction over the past 22,000 y from speleothems of tropical southwestern Mexico. The data document an active Last Glacial Maximum (18–24 cal ka B.P.) monsoon with similar δ18O values to the modern, and that the monsoon collapsed during periods of weakened AMOC during Heinrich stadial 1 (ca. 17 ka) and the Younger Dryas (12.9–11.5 ka). The Holocene was marked by a trend to a weaker monsoon that was paced by orbital insolation. We conclude that the Mesoamerican monsoon responded in concert with other global monsoon regions, and that monsoon strength was driven by variations in the strength and latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which was forced by AMOC variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. The surprising observation of an active Last Glacial Maximum monsoon is attributed to an active but shallow AMOC and proximity to the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The emergence of agriculture in southwestern Mexico was likely only possible after monsoon strengthening in the Early Holocene at ca. 11 ka. PMID:23690596

  18. Interannual variability of South American monsoon circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alonso Gan, Manoel; Rafaele Araújo Lima, Jeane

    2016-04-01

    The South America Monsoon System (SAMS) is responsible for influencing the atmospheric circulation and precipitation over most of tropical South America (SA) during the summer season. Studies for aiming to understand the temporal variability of this system have great value to the scientific community, because the processes that control the monsoon climate are not totally clear. Thus, the main objective of this research is to investigate the possible large-scale climatic factors and the remote interaction mechanisms, which may be associated with summer season interannual variability focusing on identifying the main differences between dry and wet extremes rainy season in the South-eastern Amazon Basin (SAB), Central-West (WC) and Southeast (SE) of Brazil, which are areas influenced by the summer monsoon regime. For such analyzes, Pearson correlations, quantile method and composite analysis were used during the period from 1979 to 2014. The correlation between precipitation anomaly in SAB and the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and wind at 850hPa and 300hPa indicate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence. Precipitation anomalies in WC did not show significant correlation with SSTA. However, a pattern similar to ENSO Modoki type was observed in the composite analysis. At 850 hPa, the presence of an anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation was observed over the central region of SA during wet (dry) summers seasons. Over SE region of Brazil, a dipole SSTA pattern over the South Atlantic was identified, as well the presence of anomalous circulations with an equivalent barotropic structure over these SSTA areas. This pattern is more evident in case of dry summer on the SE. At 300 hPa, the wave train between 30°S-60°S was observed presenting a feature curvature from 120°W reaching SA, similar to the Pacific-South American pattern (PSA). Analysis of the summer interannual variability indicated the manifestation of wet summers more frequently than dry

  19. Rates and correlates of undetermined deaths among African Americans: results from the National Violent Death Reporting System.

    PubMed

    Huguet, Nathalie; Kaplan, Mark S; McFarland, Bentson H

    2012-04-01

    Little is known about the factors associated with undetermined death classifications among African Americans. In this study, the rates of undetermined deaths were assessed, the prevalence of missing information was estimated, and whether the circumstances preceding death differ by race were examined. Data were derived from the 2005-2008 National Violent Death Reporting System. African Americans had higher prevalence of missing information than Whites. African Americans classified as undetermined deaths were more likely to be older, women, never married/single, to have had a blood alcohol content at or above the legal limit, and to have had a substance abuse problem. The results suggest that racial differences in the preponderance and the type of evidence surrounding the death may affect death classification.

  20. The time-transgressive termination of the African Humid Period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shanahan, Timothy M.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Hughen, Konrad A.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Heil, Clifford W.; King, John; Scholz, Christopher A.; Peck, John

    2015-02-01

    During the African Humid Period about 14,800 to 5,500 years ago, changes in incoming solar radiation during Northern Hemisphere summers led to the large-scale expansion and subsequent collapse of the African monsoon. Hydrologic reconstructions from arid North Africa show an abrupt onset and termination of the African Humid Period. These abrupt transitions have been invoked in arguments that the African monsoon responds rapidly to gradual forcing as a result of nonlinear land surface feedbacks. Here we present a reconstruction of precipitation in humid tropical West Africa for the past 20,000 years using the hydrogen isotope composition of leaf waxes preserved in sediments from Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana. We show that over much of tropical and subtropical Africa the monsoon responded synchronously and predictably to glacial reorganizations of overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, but the response to the relatively weaker radiative forcing during the African Humid Period was more spatially and temporally complex. A synthesis of hydrologic reconstructions from across Africa shows that the termination of the African Humid Period was locally abrupt, but occurred progressively later at lower latitudes. We propose that this time-transgressive termination of the African Humid Period reflects declining rainfall intensity induced directly by decreasing summer insolation as well as the gradual southward migration of the tropical rainbelt that occurred during this interval.

  1. The Development of Education Systems in Postcolonial Africa: A Study of a Selected Number of African Countries.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nieuwenhuis, F. J.

    This study traces educational policy development and implementation in the postcolonial era in eight sub-Saharan African countries. A basic premise is that the education system in any country is a result of interacting forces in the unique historical development of the country. The volume analyzes the forces in terms of their relevance and…

  2. Overview of the Effect and Epidemiology of Parasitic Central Nervous System Infections in African Children

    PubMed Central

    Mallewa, Macpherson; Wilmshurst, Jo M.

    2014-01-01

    Infections of the central nervous system are a significant cause of neurologic dysfunction in resource-limited countries, especially in Africa. The prevalence is not known and is most likely underestimated because of the lack of access to accurate diagnostic screens. For children, the legacy of subsequent neurodisability, which affects those who survive, is a major cause of the burden of disease in Africa. Of the parasitic infections with unique effect in Africa, cerebral malaria, neurocysticercosis, human African trypanosomiasis, toxoplasmosis, and schistosomiasis are largely preventable conditions, which are rarely seen in resource-equipped settings. This article reviews the current understandings of these parasitic and other rarer infections, highlighting the specific challenges in relation to prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and the complications of coinfection. PMID:24655400

  3. Parasitic Central Nervous System Infections in Immunocompromised Hosts: Malaria, Microsporidiosis, Leishmaniasis, and African Trypanosomiasis

    PubMed Central

    Walker, Melanie; Kublin, James G.; Zunt, Joseph R.

    2009-01-01

    Immunosuppression associated with HIV infection or following transplantation increases susceptibility to central nervous system (CNS) infections. Because of increasing international travel, parasites that were previously limited to tropical regions pose an increasing infectious threat to populations at risk for acquiring opportunistic infection, especially people with HIV infection or individuals who have received a solid organ or bone marrow transplant. Although long-term immunosuppression caused by medications such as prednisone likely also increases the risk for acquiring infection and for developing CNS manifestations, little published information is available to support this hypothesis. In an earlier article published in Clinical Infectious Diseases, we described the neurologic manifestations of some of the more common parasitic CNS infections. This review will discuss the presentation, diagnosis, and treatment of the following additional parasitic CNS infections: malaria, microsporidiosis, leishmaniasis, and African trypanosomiasis. PMID:16323101

  4. Determination of summer monsoon onset and its related large-scale circulation characteristics over Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Latif, M.; Syed, F. S.

    2016-08-01

    The onset of summer monsoon over the Core Monsoon Region of Pakistan (CMRP) has been investigated in this study using observational daily rainfall and Precipitable Water (PW) data sets. An objective criterion is proposed to define monsoon onset dates by employing Precipitation Index and Normalized Precipitable Water Index techniques. The climatological mean summer monsoon onset dates over CMRP based on daily rainfall data sets are observed to be 1 July and 30 June in the station and gridded data sets, respectively. Whereas the daily PW-based climatological mean onset date is 30 June. The year-wise onset dates determined through station and gridded rainfall data sets are very similar but these dates differ in case of PW-based onsets. The evolution of large-scale circulation anomalies and thermodynamic structure leading monsoon onset over Pakistan shows that a strong positive temperature and geopotential height anomalies appear over the northwestern part of the core region in the upper atmosphere. This warm geopotential height anomaly gets strengthen as the monsoon onset approaches. The temperature anomalies are barotropic whereas the geopotential height anomalies are baroclinic with the presence of low level anticyclone over the Tibetan Plateau. A moisture convergence zone along the foothill of Himalayas and low level moisture convergence zone over the north Arabian Sea set the stage for the moisture carrying monsoon winds to blow inland towards CMRP. The moisture is mainly supplied from the Arabian Sea, as the low pressure system approaches CMRP from the Bay of Bengal.

  5. Monsoon-extratropical circulation interactions in Himalayan extreme rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vellore, Ramesh K.; Kaplan, Michael L.; Krishnan, R.; Lewis, John M.; Sabade, Sudhir; Deshpande, Nayana; Singh, Bhupendra B.; Madhura, R. K.; Rama Rao, M. V. S.

    2016-06-01

    Extreme precipitation and flood episodes in the Himalayas are oftentimes traced to synoptic situations involving connections between equatorward advancing upper level extratropical circulations and moisture-laden tropical monsoon circulation. While previous studies have documented precipitation characteristics in the Himalayan region during severe storm cases, a comprehensive understanding of circulation dynamics of extreme precipitation mechanisms is still warranted. In this study, a detailed analysis is performed using rainfall observations and reanalysis circulation products to understand the evolution of monsoon-extratropical circulation features and their interactions based on 34 extreme precipitation events which occurred in the Western Himalayas (WEH) during the period 1979-2013. Our results provide evidence for a common large-scale circulation pattern connecting the extratropics and the South Asian monsoon region, which is favorable for extreme precipitation occurrences in the WEH region. This background upper level large-scale circulation pattern consists of a deep southward penetrating midlatitude westerly trough, a blocking high over western Eurasia and an intensifying Tibetan anticyclone. It is further seen from our analysis that the key elements of monsoon-midlatitude interactions, responsible for extreme precipitation events over the WEH region, are: (1) midlatitude Rossby wave breaking, (2) west-northwest propagation of monsoon low-pressure system from the Bay of Bengal across the Indian subcontinent, (3) eddy shedding of the Tibetan anticyclone, (4) ageostrophic motions and transverse circulation across the Himalayas, and (5) strong moist convection over the Himalayan foothills. Furthermore, high-resolution numerical simulations indicate that diabatic heating and mesoscale ageostrophic effects can additionally amplify the convective motions and precipitation in the WEH region.

  6. Report of the Retention Issues Subcommittee. The University System of Georgia's Task Force on Enhancing Access for African-American Males.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Georgia Univ. System, Atlanta. Board of Regents.

    The Retention Issues Subcommittee of the Task Force on Enhancing Access for African American Males of the University System of Georgia (USG) was charged with the identification of barriers to the successful retention of African American males within the USG and finding successful programs aimed at addressing these problems. A number of barriers…

  7. Impact of East Asian Summer Monsoon on the Air Quality over China: View from space

    SciTech Connect

    Zhao, Chun; Wang, Yuhang; Yang, Qing; Fu, Rong; Cunnold, Derek; Choi, Yunsoo

    2010-05-04

    Tropospheric O3 columns retrieved from OMI and MLS measurements, CO columns from MOPITT, and tropospheric O3 and CO concentrations from TES from May to August in 2006 are analyzed using the Regional chEmical and trAnsport Model (REAM) to investigate the impact of the East Asian summer monsoon on the air quality over China. The observed and simulated migrations of O3 and CO are in good agreement, demonstrating that the summer monsoon significantly affects the air quality over southeastern China and this influence extends to central East China from June to July. Enhancements of CO and O3 over southeastern China disappear after the onset of the summer monsoon and re-emerge in August after the monsoon wanes. The pre-monsoon high O3 concentrations over southern China are due to photochemical production from pollutant emissions and the O3 transport from the stratosphere. In the summer monsoon season, the O3 concentrations are relatively low over monsoon-affected regions because of the transport of marine air masses and weak photochemical activity. We find that the monsoon system strongly modulates the pollution problem over a large portion of East China in summer, depending on its strength and tempo-spatial extension. Model results also suggest that transport from the stratosphere and long-range transport from East China and South/Central Asia all make significant contributions to O3 enhancements over West China. Satellite observations provide valuable information for investigating the monsoon impact on air quality, particularly for the regions with limited in situ measurements.

  8. Climatology of monsoon precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau from 13-year TRMM observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aijuan, Bai; Guoping, Li

    2015-07-01

    Based on the 13-year data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite during 2001-2013, the influencing geographical location of the Tibetan Plateau (Plateau) monsoon is determined. It is found that the domain of the Plateau monsoon is bounded by the latitude between 27° N and 37° N and the longitude between 60° E and 103° E. According to the annual relative precipitation, the Plateau monsoon can be divided into three sections: the Plateau winter monsoon (PWM) over Iran and Afghanistan, the Plateau summer monsoon (PSM) over the central Plateau, and the transiting zone of the Plateau monsoon (TPM) over the south, west, and east edges of the Plateau. In PWM and PSM, the monsoon climatology has a shorter rainy season with the mean annual rainfall of less than 800 mm. In TPM, it has a longer rainy season with the mean annual rainfall of more than 1800 mm. PWM experiences a single-peak monthly rainfall with the peak during January to March; PSM usually undergoes a multi-peak pattern with peaks in the warm season; TPM presents a double-peak pattern, with a strong peak in late spring to early summer and a secondary peak in autumn. The Plateau monsoon also characterizes an asymmetrical seasonal advance of the rain belt. In the east of the Plateau, the rain belt migrates in a south-north orientation under the impact of the tropical and subtropical systems' oscillation. In the west of the Plateau, the rain belt advances in an east-west direction, which is mainly controlled by the regional Plateau monsoon.

  9. Climatology of monsoon precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau from 13-year TRMM observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aijuan, Bai; Guoping, Li

    2016-10-01

    Based on the 13-year data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite during 2001-2013, the influencing geographical location of the Tibetan Plateau (Plateau) monsoon is determined. It is found that the domain of the Plateau monsoon is bounded by the latitude between 27° N and 37° N and the longitude between 60° E and 103° E. According to the annual relative precipitation, the Plateau monsoon can be divided into three sections: the Plateau winter monsoon (PWM) over Iran and Afghanistan, the Plateau summer monsoon (PSM) over the central Plateau, and the transiting zone of the Plateau monsoon (TPM) over the south, west, and east edges of the Plateau. In PWM and PSM, the monsoon climatology has a shorter rainy season with the mean annual rainfall of less than 800 mm. In TPM, it has a longer rainy season with the mean annual rainfall of more than 1800 mm. PWM experiences a single-peak monthly rainfall with the peak during January to March; PSM usually undergoes a multi-peak pattern with peaks in the warm season; TPM presents a double-peak pattern, with a strong peak in late spring to early summer and a secondary peak in autumn. The Plateau monsoon also characterizes an asymmetrical seasonal advance of the rain belt. In the east of the Plateau, the rain belt migrates in a south-north orientation under the impact of the tropical and subtropical systems' oscillation. In the west of the Plateau, the rain belt advances in an east-west direction, which is mainly controlled by the regional Plateau monsoon.

  10. Toward a 530,000-year Hydroclimate History for the Southern Half of the Australasian Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gagan, M. K.; Scroxton, N. G.; Kimbrough, A. K.; Krause, C.; Hantoro, W. S.; Ayliffe, L. K.; Dunbar, G. B.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Hellstrom, J. C.; Shen, C. C.; Scott-Gagan, H.; Suwargadi, B. W.; Rifai, H.

    2015-12-01

    Speleothem 18O/16O records have revealed key aspects of past hydroclimates in the northern Australasian monsoon domain on orbital to millennial scales, but much less is known about the southern half of the monsoon system. We aim to develop a hydroclimate history for the southern Australasian monsoon based on speleothems from southwest Sulawesi and Flores, Indonesia (latitudes 5-9oS), which extend back to ~530 kyr BP and 90 kyr BP, respectively. To date, the 18O/16O record for Sulawesi covers glacial terminations TIV (~340 kyr BP), TIII (~245 kyr BP) and TI (~18 kyr BP). The details of each termination are different, however two important hydroclimate patterns are emerging. First, the 18O/16O record shows sharp weakening of the monsoon immediately before each termination. This surprisingly robust pattern marks a southern extension of the northern 'weak monsoon interval', and reinforces the idea that southward monsoon displacement is a fundamental feature of terminations. Second, monsoon intensification around Sulawesi lags the rise in atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature by several thousand years, but parallels the 18O/16O decrease in atmospheric O2. Our finding extends that of Wang et al. (2008) and Cheng et al. (2009) who noted the influence of the low-latitude hydrological cycle on the 18O/16O of tropical transpiration, and its potential for correlating ice core and paleomonsoon records. Further south, the 90-kyr 18O/16O record for Flores shows clear precession-scale antiphasing with China, and southerly positioning of the summer monsoon rainfall belt during Heinrich stadials. Heinrich stadials 5, 4, 2 and 1 occur during wetter intervals in Flores that accompanied relatively high southern summer insolation. Intriguingly, these events are associated with abrupt atmospheric CH4 signals that may be due to increased Southern Hemisphere CH4 production related to intensification of monsoon rainfall over southern tropical land areas (Rhodes et al., 2014).

  11. A Review of Research on School Bullying among African American Youth: An Ecological Systems Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Patton, Desmond Upton; Hong, Jun Sung; Williams, Abigail B.; Allen-Meares, Paula

    2013-01-01

    School bullying and peer victimization are social problems that affect African American youth across various environmental contexts. Regrettably, many of the empirical research on bullying and peer victimization among African American youth has examined individual and direct level influences in silos rather than a constellation of factors…

  12. Current kinematics and dynamics of Africa and the East African Rift System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stamps, D. S.; Flesch, L. M.; Calais, E.; Ghosh, A.

    2014-06-01

    Although the East African Rift System (EARS) is an archetype continental rift, the forces driving its evolution remain debated. Some contend buoyancy forces arising from gravitational potential energy (GPE) gradients within the lithosphere drive rifting. Others argue for a major role of the diverging mantle flow associated with the African Superplume. Here we quantify the forces driving present-day continental rifting in East Africa by (1) solving the depth averaged 3-D force balance equations for 3-D deviatoric stress associated with GPE, (2) inverting for a stress field boundary condition that we interpret as originating from large-scale mantle tractions, (3) calculating dynamic velocities due to lithospheric buoyancy forces, lateral viscosity variations, and velocity boundary conditions, and (4) calculating dynamic velocities that result from the stress response of horizontal mantle tractions acting on a viscous lithosphere in Africa and surroundings. We find deviatoric stress associated with lithospheric GPE gradients are ˜8-20 MPa in EARS, and the minimum deviatoric stress resulting from basal shear is ˜1.6 MPa along the EARS. Our dynamic velocity calculations confirm that a force contribution from GPE gradients alone is sufficient to drive Nubia-Somalia divergence and that additional forcing from horizontal mantle tractions overestimates surface kinematics. Stresses from GPE gradients appear sufficient to sustain present-day rifting in East Africa; however, they are lower than the vertically integrated strength of the lithosphere along most of the EARS. This indicates additional processes are required to initiate rupture of continental lithosphere, but once it is initiated, lithospheric buoyancy forces are enough to maintain rifting.

  13. Food safety management systems performance in African food processing companies: a review of deficiencies and possible improvement strategies.

    PubMed

    Kussaga, Jamal B; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Tiisekwa, Bendantunguka Pm; Luning, Pieternel A

    2014-08-01

    This study seeks to provide insight into current deficiencies in food safety management systems (FSMS) in African food-processing companies and to identify possible strategies for improvement so as to contribute to African countries' efforts to provide safe food to both local and international markets. This study found that most African food products had high microbiological and chemical contamination levels exceeding the set (legal) limits. Relative to industrialized countries, the study identified various deficiencies at government, sector/branch, retail and company levels which affect performance of FSMS in Africa. For instance, very few companies (except exporting and large companies) have implemented HACCP and ISO 22000:2005. Various measures were proposed to be taken at government (e.g. construction of risk-based legislative frameworks, strengthening of food safety authorities, recommend use of ISO 22000:2005, and consumers' food safety training), branch/sector (e.g. sector-specific guidelines and third-party certification), retail (develop stringent certification standards and impose product specifications) and company levels (improving hygiene, strict raw material control, production process efficacy, and enhancing monitoring systems, assurance activities and supportive administrative structures). By working on those four levels, FSMS of African food-processing companies could be better designed and tailored towards their production processes and specific needs to ensure food safety. PMID:24425418

  14. Food safety management systems performance in African food processing companies: a review of deficiencies and possible improvement strategies.

    PubMed

    Kussaga, Jamal B; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Tiisekwa, Bendantunguka Pm; Luning, Pieternel A

    2014-08-01

    This study seeks to provide insight into current deficiencies in food safety management systems (FSMS) in African food-processing companies and to identify possible strategies for improvement so as to contribute to African countries' efforts to provide safe food to both local and international markets. This study found that most African food products had high microbiological and chemical contamination levels exceeding the set (legal) limits. Relative to industrialized countries, the study identified various deficiencies at government, sector/branch, retail and company levels which affect performance of FSMS in Africa. For instance, very few companies (except exporting and large companies) have implemented HACCP and ISO 22000:2005. Various measures were proposed to be taken at government (e.g. construction of risk-based legislative frameworks, strengthening of food safety authorities, recommend use of ISO 22000:2005, and consumers' food safety training), branch/sector (e.g. sector-specific guidelines and third-party certification), retail (develop stringent certification standards and impose product specifications) and company levels (improving hygiene, strict raw material control, production process efficacy, and enhancing monitoring systems, assurance activities and supportive administrative structures). By working on those four levels, FSMS of African food-processing companies could be better designed and tailored towards their production processes and specific needs to ensure food safety.

  15. African Studies Computer Resources.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuntz, Patricia S.

    African studies computer resources that are readily available in the United States with linkages to Africa are described, highlighting those most directly corresponding to African content. Africanists can use the following four fundamental computer systems: (1) Internet/Bitnet; (2) Fidonet; (3) Usenet; and (4) dial-up bulletin board services. The…

  16. Remobilization of southern African desert dune systems by twenty-first century global warming.

    PubMed

    Thomas, David S G; Knight, Melanie; Wiggs, Giles F S

    2005-06-30

    Although desert dunes cover 5 per cent of the global land surface and 30 per cent of Africa, the potential impacts of twenty-first century global warming on desert dune systems are not well understood. The inactive Sahel and southern African dune systems, which developed in multiple arid phases since the last interglacial period, are used today by pastoral and agricultural systems that could be disrupted if climate change alters twenty-first century dune dynamics. Empirical data and model simulations have established that the interplay between dune surface erodibility (determined by vegetation cover and moisture availability) and atmospheric erosivity (determined by wind energy) is critical for dunefield dynamics. This relationship between erodibility and erosivity is susceptible to climate-change impacts. Here we use simulations with three global climate models and a range of emission scenarios to assess the potential future activity of three Kalahari dunefields. We determine monthly values of dune activity by modifying and improving an established dune mobility index so that it can account for global climate model data outputs. We find that, regardless of the emission scenario used, significantly enhanced dune activity is simulated in the southern dunefield by 2039, and in the eastern and northern dunefields by 2069. By 2099 all dunefields are highly dynamic, from northern South Africa to Angola and Zambia. Our results suggest that dunefields are likely to be reactivated (the sand will become significantly exposed and move) as a consequence of twenty-first century climate warming.

  17. Safety improvements through Intelligent Transport Systems: a South African case study based on microscopic simulation modelling.

    PubMed

    Vanderschuren, Marianne

    2008-03-01

    Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) can facilitate the delivery of a wide range of policy objectives. There are six main objectives/benefits identified in the international literature: Safety (reduction of (potential) crashes), mobility (reduction of delays and travel times), efficiency (optimise the use of existing infrastructure), productivity (cost saving), energy/environment and customer satisfaction [Mitretek Systems, 2001. Intelligent Transport System Benefits: 2001 update, Under Contract to the Federal Highway Administration, US Department of Transportation, Washington, DC, US]. In the South African context, there is an interest for measures that can reduce (potential) crashes. In South Africa the number of year on year traffic related fatalities is still increasing. In 2005 the number of fatalities was 15393 (from 14135 in 2004) while the estimated costs for the same period increased from R8.89-billion to R9.99-billion [RTMC, 2007. Interim Road Traffic and Fatal Crash Report 2006, Road Traffic Management Corporation, Pretoria, SA]. Given the extent of the road safety problem and the potential benefits of ITS, the need for further research is apparent. A study with regards to the potential of different types of models (macroscopic, mesoscopic and miscroscopic simulation models) led to the use of Paramics. Two corridors and three types of ITS measures were investigated and safety benefits were estimated.

  18. Variations in Reading Achievement Across 14 Southern African School Systems: Which Factors Matter?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hungi, Njora; Thuku, Florence W.

    2010-02-01

    In this study the authors employed a multilevel analysis procedure in order to examine the pupil and school levels factors that contributed to variation in reading achievement among Grade 6 primary school pupils in 14 southern African school systems (Botswana, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zanzibar). The data for this study were collected in 2002 as part of a major project known as the Southern and Eastern Africa Consortium for Monitoring Educational Quality (SACMEQ) that sought to examine the quality of education offered in primary schools in these countries. The most important factors affecting variation in pupil achievement across most of these school systems were grade repetition, pupil socioeconomic background, speaking the language of instruction at home, and Pupil age. South Africa, Uganda and Namibia were among the school systems with the largest between-school variation while Seychelles and Mauritius had the largest within-school variation. Low social equity in reading achievement was evident in Mauritius, Seychelles and Tanzania. Policy implications of the findings are discussed.

  19. Understanding global health and development partnerships: Perspectives from African and global health system professionals.

    PubMed

    Barnes, Amy; Brown, Garrett W; Harman, Sophie

    2016-06-01

    Partnership is a key idea in current debates about global health and development assistance, yet little is known about what partnership means to those who are responsible for operationalising it or how it is experienced in practice. This is particularly the case in the context of African health systems. This paper explores how health professionals working in global health hubs and the health systems of South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia understand and experience partnership. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with 101 professionals based in each country, Washington DC and Geneva between October 2012 and June 2013, the paper makes four key arguments. First, partnership has a legitimating function in global health policy processes for international development institutions, government agencies and civil society organisations alike. Second, the practice of partnership generates idiosyncratic and complicated relationships that health professionals have to manage and navigate, often informally. Third, partnership is shaped by historical legacies, critical events, and independent consultants. Fourth, despite being an accepted part of global health policy, there is little shared understanding of what good partnership is meant to include or resemble in practice. Knowing more about the specific socio-cultural and political dynamics of partnership in different health system contexts is critical to equip health professionals with the skills to build the informal relations that are essential to effective partnership engagement. PMID:27155226

  20. TIGERZ I: Aerosols, Monsoon and Synergism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holben, B. N.; Tripathi, S. N.; Schafer, J. S.; Giles, D. M.; Eck, T. F.; Sinyuk, A.; Smirnov, A.; Krishnmoorthy, K.; Sorokin, M. G.; Newcomb, W. W.; Tran, A. K.; Sikka, D. R.; Goloub, P.; O'Neill, N. T.; Abboud, I.; Randles, C.; Niranjan, K.; Dumka, U. C.; Tiwari, S.; Devara, P. C.; Kumar, S.; Remer, L. A.; Kleidman, R.; Martins, J. V.; Kahn, R.

    2008-12-01

    The Indo-Gangetic Plain of northern India encompasses a vast complex of urban and rural landscapes, cultures that serve as anthropogenic sources of fine mode aerosols mixed with coarse mode particles transported from SW Asia. The summer monsoon and fall Himalayan snowmelt provide the agricultural productivity to sustain an extremely high population density whose affluence is increasing. Variations in the annual monsoon precipitation of 10% define drought, normal and a wet season; the net effects on the ecosystems and quality of life can be dramatic. Clearly investigation of anthropogenic and natural aerosol impacts on the monsoon, either through the onset, monsoon breaks or end points are a great concern to understand and ultimately mitigate. Many national and international field campaigns are being planned and conducted to study various aspects of the Asian monsoon and some coordinated under the Asian Monsoon Years (AMY) umbrella. A small program called TIGERZ conducted during the pre-monsoon of 2008 in North Central India can serve as a model for contributing significant resources to existing field programs while meeting immediate project goals. This poster will discuss preliminary results of the TIGERZ effort including ground-based measurements of aerosol properties in the I-G from AERONET and synergism with various Indian programs, satellite observations and aerosol modeling efforts.

  1. Effective coverage and systems effectiveness for malaria case management in sub-Saharan African countries.

    PubMed

    Galactionova, Katya; Tediosi, Fabrizio; de Savigny, Don; Smith, Thomas; Tanner, Marcel

    2015-01-01

    Scale-up of malaria preventive and control interventions over the last decade resulted in substantial declines in mortality and morbidity from the disease in sub-Saharan Africa and many other parts of the world. Sustaining these gains will depend on the health system performance. Treatment provides individual benefits by curing infection and preventing progression to severe disease as well as community-level benefits by reducing the infectious reservoir and averting emergence and spread of drug resistance. However many patients with malaria do not access care, providers do not comply with treatment guidelines, and hence, patients do not necessarily receive the correct regimen. Even when the correct regimen is administered some patients will not adhere and others will be treated with counterfeit or substandard medication leading to treatment failures and spread of drug resistance. We apply systems effectiveness concepts that explicitly consider implications of health system factors such as treatment seeking, provider compliance, adherence, and quality of medication to estimate treatment outcomes for malaria case management. We compile data for these indicators to derive estimates of effective coverage for 43 high-burden Sub-Saharan African countries. Parameters are populated from the Demographic and Health Surveys and other published sources. We assess the relative importance of these factors on the level of effective coverage and consider variation in these health systems indicators across countries. Our findings suggest that effective coverage for malaria case management ranges from 8% to 72% in the region. Different factors account for health system inefficiencies in different countries. Significant losses in effectiveness of treatment are estimated in all countries. The patterns of inter-country variation suggest that these are system failures that are amenable to change. Identifying the reasons for the poor health system performance and intervening to tackle

  2. Monsoon '90 - Preliminary SAR results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dubois, Pascale C.; Van Zyl, Jakob J.; Guerra, Abel G.

    1992-01-01

    Multifrequency polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of the Walnut Gulch watershed near Tombstone, Arizona were acquired on 28 Mar. 1990 and on 1 Aug. 1990. Trihedral corner reflectors were deployed prior to both overflights to allow calibration of the two SAR data sets. During both overflights, gravimetric soil moisture and dielectric constant measurements were made. Detailed vegetation height, density, and water content measurements were made as part of the Monsoon 1990 Experiment. Preliminary results based on analysis of the multitemporal polarimetric SAR data are presented. Only the C-band data (5.7-cm wavelength) radar images show significant difference between Mar. and Aug., with the strongest difference observed in the HV images. Based on the radar data analysis and the in situ measurements, we conclude that these differences are mainly due to changes in the vegetation and not due to the soil moisture changes.

  3. Monsoon 1990: Preliminary SAR results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vanzyl, Jakob J.; Dubois, Pascale; Guerra, Abel

    1991-01-01

    Multifrequency polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of the Walnut Gulch watershed near Tombstone, Arizona were acquired on 28 Mar. 1990 and on 1 Aug. 1990. Trihedral corner reflectors were deployed prior to both overflights to allow calibration of the two SAR data sets. During both overflights, gravimetric soil moisture and dielectric constant measurements were made. Detailed vegetation height, density, and water content measurements were made as part of the Monsoon 1990 Experiment. Preliminary results based on analysis of the multitemporal polarimetric SAR data are presented. Only the C-band data (5.7-cm wavelength) radar images show significant difference between Mar. and Aug., with the strongest difference observed in the HV images. Based on the radar data analysis and the in situ measurements, we conclude that these differences are mainly due to changes in the vegetation and not due to the soil moisture changes.

  4. Late Holocene SST and primary productivity variations in the northeastern Arabian Sea as a recorder for winter monsoon variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Böll, Anna; Gaye, Birgit; Lückge, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    Variability in the oceanic environment of the Arabian Sea region is strongly influenced by the seasonal monsoon cycle of alternating wind directions. Strong south-westerly winds during the summer monsoon induce upwelling of nutrient rich waters along the coast off Somalia, Oman and southwest India, which result in high rates of primary production. In the northeastern Arabian Sea off Pakistan on the other hand, primary production and sea surface temperatures are linked to northeast monsoonal winds that cool the sea surface and drive convective mixing and high surface ocean productivity during the winter season. In this study, we analyzed alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) variations and proxies of primary productivity (organic carbon and δ15N) in a well-laminated sediment core from the Pakistan continental margin to establish the first high-resolution record of winter monsoon variability for the late Holocene. Over the last 2400 years reconstructed SST in the northeastern Arabian Sea decreased whereas productivity increased, imaging a long-term trend of northeast monsoon strengthening in response to insolation-induced southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The comparison of our winter monsoon record with records of summer monsoon intensity suggests that summer and winter monsoon strength was essentially anti-correlated over the late Holocene throughout the Asian monsoon system. In addition, SST variations recorded off Pakistan match very well with Northern Hemisphere temperature records supporting the growing body of evidence that Asian climate is linked to Northern Hemisphere climate change. It reveals a consistent pattern of increased summer monsoon activity in the northeastern Arabian Sea during northern hemispheric warm periods (Medieval Warm Period, Roman Warm Period) and strengthened winter monsoon activity during hemispheric colder periods (Little Ice Age).

  5. Characterization of thyrotropin-releasing hormone in the central nervous system of African lungfish.

    PubMed

    Kreider, M S; Winokur, A; Manaker, S; Pack, A I; Fishman, A P

    1988-10-01

    Central administration of thyrotropin-releasing hormone (TRH) produces potent effects on various physiological parameters, such as arousal, respiration, and cardiovascular function, in several species. As part of an investigation into the evolution of this tripeptide as a central modulator of these parameters, we examined its distribution in the central nervous system of the African lungfish (Protopterus). Lungfish brains were dissected into three regions: telencephalon, diencephalon, and medulla. Each region was assayed for TRH by radioimmunoassay and for norepinephrine, dopamine, and serotonin by HPLC/electrochemical methods. TRH immunoreactivity (IR-TRH) was present in all regions of lungfish brain examined. The telencephalon contained the highest concentrations of TRH, the diencephalon also contained a high concentration of TRH, and the medulla contained a markedly lower concentration. Similar concentration gradients (telencephalon greater than diencephalon greater than medulla) were observed for norepinephrine, dopamine, and serotonin. The identity of IR-TRH as authentic TRH was confirmed by elution profiles on HPLC. The results of this investigation demonstrated that TRH and the monoamine neurotransmitters are present in high concentrations in various regions of lungfish brain. The lungfish may represent a promising model for further studies of the interactions of TRH with these neurotransmitter systems.

  6. Sismotectonics in the western branch of the East African Rift System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delvaux, Damien; Kervyn, François; Mulumba, Jean-Luc; Kipata, Louis; Sebagenzi, Stanislas; Mavonga, Georges; Macheyeki, Athanas; Temu, Elly Bryan

    2013-04-01

    The western branch of the East African rift system is known of its particular seismic activity with larger magnitude (up to Ms 7.3) and more frequent destructive earthquakes than in the eastern branch. As a contribution to the IGCP 601 project Seismotectonic Map of Africa, we compiled the known active faults, thermal springs and historical seismicity in Central Africa. Using the rich archives of the Royal Museum for Central Africa, publications and own field observations, we present a compilation of available data relative to the current seismotectonic activity along the western branch of the East African rift system, in DRC, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania. Neotectonic activity related to the western rift branch is in general well expressed and relatively well studied in the eastern flank of this rift branch, in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania. In contrast, the western flank of this rift branch, largely exposed in the DRC, has attracted less attention. However, data collected during the colonial times show significant sismotectonic activity in East DRC, not only in the western flank of the western rift branch, but extending far westwards up to the margin of the Congo basin. In particular, our predecessors paid a special attention to the mapping and description of thermal springs, noticing that they are often controlled by active faults. In addition, the operators of the relatively dense network of meteorological stations installed in the DRC, Rwanda and Burundi also recorded were with variable level of completeness and detail the earthquakes that they could felt. This provides a rich database that is used to complete the existing knowledge on historical seismicity. An important effort has still to be paid to identify and map potentially active fault due to poor field accessibility, tropical climate weathering and vegetation coverage. The main problem in the compilation of active fault data is that very few of them have been investigated by paleoseismic trenching

  7. Multidecadal to multicentury scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere monsoons over the past millennium

    PubMed Central

    Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor J.; Rasmussen, Jessica B. T.; Burns, Stephen J.; Lachniet, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    Late Holocene climate in western North America was punctuated by periods of extended aridity called megadroughts. These droughts have been linked to cool eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here, we show both short-term and long-term climate variability over the last 1,500 y from annual band thickness and stable isotope speleothem data. Several megadroughts are evident, including a multicentury one, AD 1350–1650, herein referred to as Super Drought, which corresponds to the coldest period of the Little Ice Age. Synchronicity between southwestern North American, Chinese, and West African monsoon precipitation suggests the megadroughts were hemispheric in scale. Northern Hemisphere monsoon strength over the last millennium is positively correlated with Northern Hemisphere temperature and North Atlantic SST. The megadroughts are associated with cooler than average SST and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Furthermore, the megadroughts, including the Super Drought, coincide with solar insolation minima, suggesting that solar forcing of sea surface and atmospheric temperatures may generate variations in the strength of Northern Hemisphere monsoons. Our findings seem to suggest stronger (wetter) Northern Hemisphere monsoons with increased warming. PMID:23716648

  8. Multidecadal to multicentury scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere monsoons over the past millennium.

    PubMed

    Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor J; Rasmussen, Jessica B T; Burns, Stephen J; Lachniet, Matthew

    2013-06-11

    Late Holocene climate in western North America was punctuated by periods of extended aridity called megadroughts. These droughts have been linked to cool eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here, we show both short-term and long-term climate variability over the last 1,500 y from annual band thickness and stable isotope speleothem data. Several megadroughts are evident, including a multicentury one, AD 1350-1650, herein referred to as Super Drought, which corresponds to the coldest period of the Little Ice Age. Synchronicity between southwestern North American, Chinese, and West African monsoon precipitation suggests the megadroughts were hemispheric in scale. Northern Hemisphere monsoon strength over the last millennium is positively correlated with Northern Hemisphere temperature and North Atlantic SST. The megadroughts are associated with cooler than average SST and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Furthermore, the megadroughts, including the Super Drought, coincide with solar insolation minima, suggesting that solar forcing of sea surface and atmospheric temperatures may generate variations in the strength of Northern Hemisphere monsoons. Our findings seem to suggest stronger (wetter) Northern Hemisphere monsoons with increased warming.

  9. Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during Late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reuter, M.; Piller, W. E.; Harzhauser, M.; Kroh, A.

    2013-01-01

    Important concerns about the consequences of climate change for India are the potential impact on tropical cyclones and the monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as an indicator of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the Late Oligocene warming period (~27-24 Ma). Direct proxies providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system in the Early Miocene. The vast shell concentrations comprise a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deep to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished each recording a relative storm wave base depth. (1) A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore mollusks, corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2) an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclind foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinaceans; and (3) a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten-Schizaster echinoid assemblage. Vertical changes in these skeletal associations give evidence of gradually increasing tropical cyclone intensity in line with third-order sea level rise. The intensity of cyclones over the Arabian Sea is primarily linked to the strength of the Indian monsoon. Therefore and since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the Late Oligocene, the longer-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the peak of the Late Oligocene global warming (~24 Ma).

  10. Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reuter, M.; Piller, W. E.; Harzhauser, M.; Kroh, A.

    2013-09-01

    Climate change has an unknown impact on tropical cyclones and the Asian monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as a recorder of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the late Oligocene warming period (~ 27-24 Ma). Proxy data providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system at the Oligocene-Miocene boundary. The vast shell concentrations are comprised of a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deeper to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished, each recording a relative storm wave base. (1) A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore molluscs, reef corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2) an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclinid foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinacean algae; and (3) a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten bivalve-Schizaster echinoid assemblage. These wave base depth estimates were used for the reconstruction of long-term tropical storm intensity during the late Oligocene. The development and intensification of cyclones over the recent Arabian Sea is primarily limited by the atmospheric monsoon circulation and strength of the associated vertical wind shear. Therefore, since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the late Oligocene, the reconstructed long-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~ 26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the peak of the late

  11. The East Asian subtropical summer monsoon: Recent progress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Jinhai; Liu, Boqi

    2016-04-01

    The East Asian subtropical summer monsoon (EASSM) is one component of the East Asian summer monsoon system, and its evolution determines the weather and climate over East China. In the present paper, we firstly demonstrate the formation and advancement of the EASSM rainbelt and its associated circulation and precipitation patterns through reviewing recent studies and our own analysis based on JRA-55 (Japanese 55-yr Reanalysis) data and CMAP (CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) precipitation data. The results show that the rainy season of the EASSM starts over the region to the south of the Yangtze River in early April, with the establishment of strong southerly wind in situ. The EASSM rainfall, which is composed of dominant convective and minor stratiform precipitation, is always accompanied by a frontal system and separated from the tropical summer monsoon system. It moves northward following the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon. Moreover, the role of the land-sea thermal contrast in the formation and maintenance of the EASSM is illustrated, including in particular the effect of the seasonal transition of the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and the influences from the Tibetan Plateau and midlatitudes. In addition, we reveal a possible reason for the subtropical climate difference between East Asia and East America. Finally, the multi-scale variability of the EASSM and its influential factors are summarized to uncover possible reasons for the intraseasonal, interannual, and interdecadal variability of the EASSM and their importance in climate prediction.

  12. Spacebased Observations of the Oceanic Responses to Monsoons in South China Sea and Arabian Sea

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xie, Xiao-Su; Liu, W. Timothy

    2000-01-01

    A large percentage of the world's population and their agrarian economy must endure the vagaries of the monsoons over the tropical oceans between Africa and the Philippines. We know very little about the oceanic responses to changes of the monsoon in the South China Sea (SCS), which is under the influence of the East Asian Monsoon System, and the Arabian Sea (AS), which is dominated by the Indian Monsoon System; oceanic observations are sparse in both regions. Data from spaceborne microwave scatterometers and radiometers have been used to estimate the two major atmospheric forcing, momentum flux and latent heat flux (LHF), which change with the monsoon winds. Spaceborne sensors also observed the surface signatures of the oceanic response: SST and sea level changes (SLC. Sufficient durations of these data have recently become available to allow the meaningful studies of the annual cycles and interannual anomalies. In SCS, the winter monsoon is strong and steady but the summer monsoon is weak and has large intraseasonal fluctuations. In AS, the summer monsoon is much stronger than the winter monsoon. Significant correlations between LHF and SST tendency, and between curl of wind stress and SLC are found in both oceans. In the north SCS, winds are strong and dry, LHF is high, and ocean cooling is also large in fall; LHF is low and the ocean warms up in spring. In AS, LHF and SST tendency have a semi annual period; LHF is high in summer when the wind is strong and in winter when the wind is dry. Along the coast of Oman, the strong summer southwest monsoon causes intense upwelling, low SST and LHF in summer; such wind-driven SST changes is not as obvious along the Vietnam coast because of the weaker summer monsoon. The negative correlation between curl of wind stress and SLC found in the central basins of both SCS and AS agrees with a simple Ekman pumping scenario. Cyclonic winds drive surface divergence and upwelling in the ocean; the rise of the thermocline causes

  13. Sedimentary budgets of the Tanzania coastal basin and implications for uplift history of the East African rift system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Said, Aymen; Moder, Christoph; Clark, Stuart; Abdelmalak, Mohamed Mansour

    2015-11-01

    Data from 23 wells were used to quantify the sedimentary budgets in the Tanzania coastal basin in order to unravel the uplift chronology of the sourcing area located in the East African Rift System. We quantified the siliciclastic sedimentary volumes preserved in the Tanzania coastal basin corrected for compaction and in situ (e.g., carbonates) production. We found that the drainage areas, which supplied sediments to this basin, were eroded in four episodes: (1) during the middle Jurassic, (2) during the Campanian-Palaeocene, (3) during the middle Eocene and (4) during the Miocene. Three of these high erosion and sedimentation periods are more likely related to uplift events in the East African Rift System and earlier rift shoulders and plume uplifts. Indeed, rapid cooling in the rift system and high denudation rates in the sediment source area are coeval with these recorded pulses. However, the middle Eocene pulse was synchronous with a fall in the sea level, a climatic change and slow cooling of the rift flanks and thus seems more likely due to climatic and eustatic variations. We show that the rift shoulders of the East African rift system have inherited their present relief from at least three epeirogenic uplift pulses of middle Jurassic, Campanian-Palaeocene, and Miocene ages.

  14. Influence of 21st century atmospheric and sea surface temperature forcing on West African climate

    SciTech Connect

    Skinner, Chris B; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2011-01-01

    he persistence of extended drought events throughout West Africa during the 20th century has motivated a substantial effort to understand the mechanisms driving African climate variability, as well as the possible response to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We use an ensemble of global climate model experiments to examine the relative roles of future direct atmospheric radiative forcing and SST forcing in shaping potential future changes in boreal summer precipitation over West Africa. We find that projected increases in precipitation throughout the Western Sahel result primarily from direct atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in atmospheric forcing generate a slight northward displacement and weakening of the African easterly jet (AEJ), a strengthening of westward monsoon flow onto West Africa and an intensification of the tropical easterly jet (TEJ). Alternatively, we find that the projected decreases in precipitation over much of the Guinea Coast region are caused by SST changes that are induced by the atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in SSTs generate a weakening of the monsoon westerlies and the TEJ, as well as a decrease in low-level convergence and resultant rising air throughout the mid levels of the troposphere. Our experiments suggest a potential shift in the regional moisture balance of West Africa should global radiative forcing continue to increase, highlighting the importance of climate system feedbacks in shaping the response of regional-scale climate to global-scale changes in radiative forcing.

  15. Space-Time Structure of Monsoon Interannual Variability.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terray, Pascal

    1995-11-01

    The analysis of corrected ship reports [sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature (AT)] and corrected land data (SLP, AT, rainfall) in the Indian sector reveals the existence of two low-frequency modes of monsoon variability during the 1900-1970 period. A definite biennial (B) mode exists on the SLP fields. This B oscillation is unambiguously linked with a southwest-northeast SLP anomaly gradient. During the summer monsoon, the B SLP pattern can be interpreted as an expansion/contraction of the monsoon activity since this mode is strongly coupled with rainfall variations over peninsular India. A strong low-frequency (LF) mode with period spanning 4-6 years is also seen on SLP fields over the Indian Ocean and subcontinent. The variance associated with this band is typically more important than the one observed for the B mode, and its spatial mark is also strikingly different since it is linked with a global pattern of variation. This mode has also a strong influence on the Indian summer rainfall fluctuations, particularly on the Ghats and in the Indo-Gangetic plains.The amplitude of these oscillations varies widely during the 1900-1970 period. The LF mode is well defined during 1900-1923 and 1947-1970. There is a tendency for the energy associated with the B mode to decrease on the land while it increases over the Indian Ocean during the whole 1900-1970 interval.Although these two timescales exist also on SST fields, cross-spectral analysis shows that ocean-atmosphere interactions are much stronger at the B timescale. This result stresses the B nature of the monsoon system.The existence of these interannual signals in the Indian areas where the annual cycle is so strong raises difficult problems: How can climatic anomalies persist for several years in spite of strong seasonality? Or, still more intriguing, how can be explained the persistence of climatic anomalies during one year and the appearance of opposite sign climatic anomalies

  16. The Influence of Somalia and Oman Upwellings on the Indian Summer Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izumo, T.; de Boyer Montégut, C.; Luo, J.; Behera, S. K.; Masson, S.; Yamagata, T.

    2006-12-01

    What controls the strength of the Indian summer monsoon is not well known yet. The Somalia and Oman upwellings peak during the summer monsoon and strongly cool the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Western Arabian Sea. A slight change in their strength can thus have strong impacts on the SST and extent of the Indian ocean warm pool, which is the main source of moisture for the monsoon. Here the role of Somalia and Oman upwellings on the strength of the Indian monsoon is evidenced using both observations and the high resolution SINTEX-F Coupled Global Circulation Model (CGCM), which accurately simulates the monsoon. Within the CGCM, the spring increase and summer maximum of the Western Arabian Sea coastal upwellings are removed in a sensitivity experiment (SENS) by imposing over the Indian Ocean the mean windstress, instead of the temporally varying one of the control experiment (CTL). The ocean circulation becomes nearly stationnary. In summer, the main change in SST in SENS is a strong warming (up to 2°C) along the East African coast where coastal upwelling and off-shore horizontal advection of upwelled waters usually cool SST. This SST warming leads to a strong increase in the monsoon extent and strength along the West coast of India up to 5 mm/day (about 25% of CTL). The mechanism is as follow: in SENS, summer SST warming in the upwelling region causes anomalous evaporation, which increases specific humidity of the air masses going over the upwelling region. The humidity transport thus increases all over the Arabian sea towards the coastal Ghats mountains of India. This finally leads to enhanced moisture convergence and precipitations along the West coast of India. This role of coastal upwelling and associated SST variations on the Indian monsoon is confirmed by observations since 1980. Correlation analysis shows that enhanced summer precipitations on the West Indian coast are usually associated with warmer SST in summer East of Somalia-Oman and North

  17. Part 1: The role of waste data in building knowledge: the South African waste information system.

    PubMed

    Godfrey, Linda; Scott, Dianne; Difford, Mark; Trois, Cristina

    2012-11-01

    An empirical study was undertaken with 31 organisations submitting data to the South African Waste Information System (SAWIS) in order to explore the relationship between data and resultant waste knowledge generated through a process of learning. The results show that of the three constructs of knowledge (experience, data/information, and theory), experience has the greatest influence on building waste knowledge, nearly twice that of data/information and three times that of theory. Together the three constructs account for 54.1% of the variance in knowledge. Respondents from municipalities and private waste organisations reflect two distinct sub-groups in the data set. While the theoretical model remains the same for the two sub-groups, the way in which knowledge is constructed, and the variance in knowledge explained by the model, differs for the two. A mixed methods research design, combining quantitative statistical analysis and rich qualitative data, contributes to a comprehensive interpretation of the role of waste data in building knowledge in South Africa. While waste data has a minor influence on building knowledge, respondents acknowledge that waste data does have a positive impact on the way their organisations manage waste. However, it is not the data, but rather the resultant waste knowledge and raised level of awareness that causes the operational response. Experience is obtained predominantly through learning from others. Respondents in municipalities, emphasised learning from consultants, landfill site contractors, and colleagues in city-twinning programmes, while respondents in private waste companies, emphasised learning from experienced, senior colleagues.

  18. Estimating the age of formation of lakes: An example from Lake Tanganyika, East African Rift system

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, A.; Soreghan, M.J.; Scholz, C.A.

    1993-06-01

    Age estimates for ancient lakes are important for determining their histories and their rates of biotic and tectonic evolution. In the absence of dated core material from the lake`s sedimentary basement, several techniques have been used to generate such age estimates. The most common of these, herein called the reflection seismic-radiocarbon method (RSRM), combines estimates of short-term sediment-accumulation rates derived from radiocarbon-dated cores and depth-to-basement estimates derived from reflection-seismic data at or near the same locality to estimate an age to basement. Age estimates form the RSRM suggest that the structural basins of central Lake Tanganyika began to form between 9 and 12 Ma. Estimates for the northern and southern basins are younger (7 to 8 Ma and 2 to 4 Ma, respectively). The diachroneity of estimates for different segments of the lake is equivocal, and may be due to erosional loss of record in the northern and southern structural basins or to progressive opening of the rift. The RSRM age estimates for Lake Tanganyika are considerably younger than most prior estimates and clarify the extensional history of the western branch of the East African Rift system. 31 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  19. Transcriptome Analysis and Systemic RNAi Response in the African Sweetpotato Weevil (Cylas puncticollis, Coleoptera, Brentidae)

    PubMed Central

    Prentice, Katterinne; Pertry, Ine; Christiaens, Olivier; Bauters, Lander; Bailey, Ana; Niblett, Chuck; Ghislain, Marc; Gheysen, Godelieve; Smagghe, Guy

    2015-01-01

    The African sweetpotato weevil (SPW) Cylas puncticollis Boheman is one of the most important constraints of sweetpotato production in Sub-Saharan Africa and yet is largely an uncharacterized insect pest. Here, we report on the transcriptome analysis of SPW generated using an Illumina platform. More than 213 million sequencing reads were obtained and assembled into 89,599 contigs. This assembly was followed by a gene ontology annotation. Subsequently, a transcriptome search showed that the necessary RNAi components relevant to the three major RNAi pathways, were found to be expressed in SPW. To address the functionality of the RNAi mechanism in this species, dsRNA was injected into second instar larvae targeting laccase2, a gene which encodes an enzyme involved in the sclerotization of insect exoskeleton. The body of treated insects showed inhibition of sclerotization, leading eventually to death. Quantitative Real Time PCR (qPCR) confirmed this phenotype to be the result of gene silencing. Together, our results provide valuable sequence data on this important insect pest and demonstrate that a functional RNAi pathway with a strong and systemic effect is present in SPW and can further be explored as a new strategy for controlling this important pest. PMID:25590333

  20. Eocene precipitation: a global monsoon?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenwood, D. R.; Huber, M.

    2011-12-01

    The Eocene was the warmest part of the Cenozoic, with warm climates extending across all continents including Antarctica, and extending into the Arctic. Substantive paleobotanical evidence (leaf floras and palynofloras) has demonstrated the existence of broadleaf and coniferous polar forests - a circumpolar rain forest - at both poles. North and South America, Australia, and China in the Eocene were well-forested and humid continents, in contrast to today where 2/3 of these continental areas are arid or semi-arid and lack forests. Each of these regions reflect past climate states - mesothermal moist climates with low thermal seasonality at high latitudes - that have no analog in the modern world. Recent modelling and paleontological proxy data, however, is revealing a high degree of seasonality to precipitation for these continental areas, indicating a monsoon-type precipitation regime may have characterized Eocene 'greenhouse climates'. Paleobotanical proxies offer 2 methods for estimated paleo-precipitation; leaf physiognomy (including both CLAMP and leaf area analysis), and quantitative analysis of nearest living relatives ('NLRs') of macrofloras. Presented here are 1) an updated leaf area analysis calibration with smaller errors of the estimate than previously provided, and 2) analyses of fossil floras from North America, Canada, the Arctic, and Australia. Analysis of the Canadian floras indicate moist climates (MAP >100cm/a) in the early and middle Eocene at middle and high paleolatitudes. Precipitation for western North America at mid-latitudes is also estimated as high, but a seasonally dry interior and south-east is indicated. For Australia, precipitation in the south-east is estimated >120 cm/a, but the macrofloras indicate a drier interior (MAP ~60 cm/a) and seasonal drought, contradicting estimates of ~120 cm/a based on NLR analysis of pollen floras. Recently published data show that north-eastern China in the Eocene had a monsoonal-type seasonality for

  1. 250 years of SW Indian Monsoon Variability from Red Sea Corals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bryan, S.; Hughen, K. A.; Karnauskas, K. B.; Farrar, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    During the northern hemisphere summer, strong dust storms develop in the Tokar Delta region of Sudan. These massive dust storms are funneled through a gap in the coastal mountains and blow out across the Red Sea. The generation and transport of these dust storms is driven by the large-scale atmospheric pressure gradient across the Red Sea, which is a component of the Southwest Indian Monsoon. Dust deposited on the Red Sea is recorded in skeletal geochemistry of corals that live on the Saudi Arabian coast, and provides an opportunity to reconstruct variability in the monsoon system prior to instrumental records. We have generated annually-resolved records of coral Ba/Ca, which display strong correlations to the zonal pressure gradient across the Red Sea during the instrumental period. Our coral-based monsoon records show an increasing trend in the strength of SW Indian Monsoon circulation since the Little Ice Age, in agreement with lower-resolution Arabian Sea upwelling based records. Our records also show strong decadal-scale variability, which was strongest during the late 19th century and has declined during the past century. In this presentation, we will discuss the decadal-scale variability in the SW Indian Monsoon circulation over the past 250 years as revealed by Red Sea Corals and the implications of the relationships and trends observed in this study for projections of future monsoon variability.

  2. The South American Monsoon Variability over the Last Millennium in CMIP5/PMIP3 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rojas, M.; Arias, P. A.; Flores-Aqueveque, V.; Seth, A.; Vuille, M.

    2015-12-01

    In this paper we assess South American Monsoon System (SAMS) variability throughout the Last Millennium as depicted by the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project version 5/Paleo Modelling Intercomparison Project version 3 (CMIP5/PMIP3) simulations. High-resolution proxy records for the South American monsoon over this period show a coherent regional picture of a weak monsoon during the Medieval Climate Anomaly period and a stronger monsoon during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Due to the small forcing during the past 1000 years, CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations do not show very strong temperature anomalies over these two specific periods, which in turn do not translate into clear precipitation anomalies, as suggested by rainfall reconstructions in South America. However, with an ad-hoc definition of these two periods for each model simulation, several coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies were identified. The models feature a stronger Monsoon during the LIA associated with: (i) an enhancement of the rising motion in the SAMS domain in austral summer, (ii) a stronger monsoon-related upper-troposphere anticyclone, (iii) activation of the South American dipole, which results to a certain extent in a poleward shift in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and (iv) a weaker upper-level sub tropical jet over South America, this providing important insights into the mechanisms of these climate anomalies over South America during the past millennium.

  3. The South American monsoon variability over the last millennium in climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rojas, Maisa; Arias, Paola A.; Flores-Aqueveque, Valentina; Seth, Anji; Vuille, Mathias

    2016-08-01

    In this paper we assess South American monsoon system (SAMS) variability in the last millennium as depicted by global coupled climate model simulations. High-resolution proxy records for the South American monsoon over this period show a coherent regional picture of a weak monsoon during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and a stronger monsoon during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Due to the small external forcing during the past 1000 years, model simulations do not show very strong temperature anomalies over these two specific periods, which in turn do not translate into clear precipitation anomalies, in contrast with the rainfall reconstructions in South America. Therefore, we used an ad hoc definition of these two periods for each model simulation in order to account for model-specific signals. Thereby, several coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies are identified. The models feature a stronger monsoon during the LIA associated with (i) an enhancement of the rising motion in the SAMS domain in austral summer; (ii) a stronger monsoon-related upper-tropospheric anticyclone; (iii) activation of the South American dipole, which results in a poleward shift of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone; and (iv) a weaker upper-level subtropical jet over South America. The diagnosed changes provide important insights into the mechanisms of these climate anomalies over South America during the past millennium.

  4. Increase of global monsoon area and precipitation under global warming: A robust signal?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Pang-chi; Li, Tim; Luo, Jing-Jia; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Kitoh, Akio; Zhao, Ming

    2012-03-01

    Monsoons, the most energetic tropical climate system, exert a great social and economic impact upon billions of people around the world. The global monsoon precipitation had an increasing trend over the past three decades. Whether or not this increasing trend will continue in the 21st century is investigated, based on simulations of three high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models that were forced by different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming patterns. The results show that the global monsoon area, precipitation and intensity all increase consistently among the model projections. This indicates that the strengthened global monsoon is a robust signal across the models and SST patterns explored here. The increase of the global monsoon precipitation is attributed to the increases of moisture convergence and surface evaporation. The former is caused by the increase of atmospheric water vapor and the latter is due to the increase of SST. The effect of the moisture and evaporation increase is offset to a certain extent by the weakening of the monsoon circulation.

  5. Differential opening of the Central and South Atlantic Oceans and the opening of the West African rift system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fairhead, J. D.; Binks, R. M.

    1991-02-01

    Plate tectonic studies of the development of the Central and South Atlantic Oceans using Seasat and Geosat altimeter and magnetic anomaly isochron data now provide quantitative models of seafloor spreading through time. Such models enable an initial assessment of the differential opening between these two oceanic basins to be determined. The Equatorial Atlantic is an integral part of this oceanic rifting process, allowing stresses arising from the differential opening to be dissipated into both the Caribbean and Africa along its northern and southern boundaries respectively. The tectonic model for the West African rift system, based on geological and geophysical studies, shows a series of strike-slip fault zones diverging into Africa from the Gulf of Guinea and dissipating their shear movement into the development of extensional basins orientated perpendicular to these faults zones. The development of the West African rift system was contemporaneous with the early opening of the South Atlantic, continued to develop well after the final breakup of South America from Africa and did not cease until the late Cretaceous when there was a major phase of basin inversion and deformation. Santonian ( ~ 80 Ma) deformation across the Benue Trough (Nigeria) is broadly contemporaneous with dextral shear reactivation of the central African fracture system which, in turn resulted in renewed extension in the Sudan basins during the late Cretaceous and early Tertiary. This paper illustrates the close linkage in both time and space between the history of the African rift basins and the opening of the Atlantic. Both exhibit distinct phases of evolution with the rift basins developing in direct response to the differential opening between the Central and South Atlantic in order to dissipate stresses generated by this opening. The Mesozoic tectonic model proposed is therefore one of an intimate interaction between oceanic and continental tectonics.

  6. African American Suicide

    MedlinePlus

    ... accounted for 83.8% of Caucasian elderly suicides. • Firearms were the predominant method of suicide among African ... per 100,000 annually. Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National Vital Statistics System. Mortality Data. ...

  7. Progress in Harmonizing Tiered HIV Laboratory Systems: Challenges and Opportunities in 8 African Countries.

    PubMed

    Williams, Jason; Umaru, Farouk; Edgil, Dianna; Kuritsky, Joel

    2016-09-28

    In 2014, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS released its 90-90-90 targets, which make laboratory diagnostics a cornerstone for measuring efforts toward the epidemic control of HIV. A data-driven laboratory harmonization and standardization approach is one way to create efficiencies and ensure optimal laboratory procurements. Following the 2008 "Maputo Declaration on Strengthening of Laboratory Systems"-a call for government leadership in harmonizing tiered laboratory networks and standardizing testing services-several national ministries of health requested that the United States Government and in-country partners help implement the recommendations by facilitating laboratory harmonization and standardization workshops, with a primary focus on improving HIV laboratory service delivery. Between 2007 and 2015, harmonization and standardization workshops were held in 8 African countries. This article reviews progress in the harmonization of laboratory systems in these 8 countries. We examined agreed-upon instrument lists established at the workshops and compared them against instrument data from laboratory quantification exercises over time. We used this measure as an indicator of adherence to national procurement policies. We found high levels of diversity across laboratories' diagnostic instruments, equipment, and services. This diversity contributes to different levels of compliance with expected service delivery standards. We believe the following challenges to be the most important to address: (1) lack of adherence to procurement policies, (2) absence or limited influence of a coordinating body to fully implement harmonization proposals, and (3) misalignment of laboratory policies with minimum packages of care and with national HIV care and treatment guidelines. Overall, the effort to implement the recommendations from the Maputo Declaration has had mixed success and is a work in progress. Program managers should continue efforts to advance the

  8. Progress in Harmonizing Tiered HIV Laboratory Systems: Challenges and Opportunities in 8 African Countries.

    PubMed

    Williams, Jason; Umaru, Farouk; Edgil, Dianna; Kuritsky, Joel

    2016-09-28

    In 2014, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS released its 90-90-90 targets, which make laboratory diagnostics a cornerstone for measuring efforts toward the epidemic control of HIV. A data-driven laboratory harmonization and standardization approach is one way to create efficiencies and ensure optimal laboratory procurements. Following the 2008 "Maputo Declaration on Strengthening of Laboratory Systems"-a call for government leadership in harmonizing tiered laboratory networks and standardizing testing services-several national ministries of health requested that the United States Government and in-country partners help implement the recommendations by facilitating laboratory harmonization and standardization workshops, with a primary focus on improving HIV laboratory service delivery. Between 2007 and 2015, harmonization and standardization workshops were held in 8 African countries. This article reviews progress in the harmonization of laboratory systems in these 8 countries. We examined agreed-upon instrument lists established at the workshops and compared them against instrument data from laboratory quantification exercises over time. We used this measure as an indicator of adherence to national procurement policies. We found high levels of diversity across laboratories' diagnostic instruments, equipment, and services. This diversity contributes to different levels of compliance with expected service delivery standards. We believe the following challenges to be the most important to address: (1) lack of adherence to procurement policies, (2) absence or limited influence of a coordinating body to fully implement harmonization proposals, and (3) misalignment of laboratory policies with minimum packages of care and with national HIV care and treatment guidelines. Overall, the effort to implement the recommendations from the Maputo Declaration has had mixed success and is a work in progress. Program managers should continue efforts to advance the

  9. Mixed-host aggregations and helminth parasite sharing in an East African wildlife-livestock system.

    PubMed

    VanderWaal, Kimberly; Omondi, George Paul; Obanda, Vincent

    2014-09-15

    Parasitic infections transmitted between livestock and wildlife pose a significant risk to wildlife conservation efforts and constrain livestock productivity in tropical regions of the world. Gastrointestinal helminths are among the most ubiquitous parasites, and many parasites within this taxon can readily infect a wide range of host species. Factors shaping bidirectional transmission of parasites in wildlife-livestock systems are understudied. In this study, we investigate the prevalence and diversity of helminth infections in an East African community of wild and domestic ungulates. We also identify pairs of host species between which transmission may be possible based on shared parasite taxa, and explore the role of multi-host aggregations in shaping patterns of parasite sharing. Helminth taxa detected included Trichostrongylus, Trichuris, Paramphistomum, Skrjabinema, Strongyloides, Strongylus spp., and other strongyle-type nematodes. We found that nearly 50% of individuals harbored at least one species of helminth, but certain species, such as zebra and impala, exhibited higher prevalence than others. High canopy feeders, like giraffe, had lower prevalence than hosts feeding at medium and low foraging heights. For helminths, patterns of parasite sharing likely emerge from shared space use, which is mediated in part by mixed-species aggregations. The frequency with which host species associated together in mixed-species aggregations was positively correlated with the number of parasite taxa shared. We suggest that variation among species in their tendency to form mixed-species aggregations creates heterogeneity in transmission opportunities, and consequently, parasite sharing across ungulate species. These results enhance our understanding of the role of spatiotemporal relationships among host species in shaping parasite communities in mixed wildlife-livestock grazing systems. PMID:25086496

  10. Shared Platform for South African Earth and Environmental Observation Systems: Recent Developments and Improvements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hugo, Wim

    2013-04-01

    Over the past 3 years, SAEON has worked with a number of stakeholders and funders to establish a shared platform for the management of dissemination of E&EO research outputs, data sets, and services. This platform is strongly aligned with GEO principles and architecture, allowing direct integration with the GEOSS Broker. The platform has two important characteristics: 1. It reduces the cost and lead time of provision of similar infrastructure for future initiatives. 2. The platform is domain-agnostic to some degree, and can be used for non E&EO applications. Projects to achive this is under way at present. The paper describes the application of the platform for a variety of user communities and initiatives (SAEON Data Portal, South African Earth Observation System, Risk and Vulnerability Atlas, BioEnergy Atlas, National Spatial Information Framework, ICSU World Data System Components, and many more), and demonstrates use cases utilising a distributed, service oriented architecture. Significant improvements have been made to the interoperability functions available to end users and content providers, and these are demonstrated and discussed in detail. Functions include • Creation and persistence of composite maps, as well as time series or scatter charts, supporting a variety of standardized data sources. • Search facilities have been extended to allow analysis and filtering of primary search results, and to deal with large meta-data collections. • In addition, data sources, data listings, news items, images, search results, and other platform content can, with increasing flexibility, be accessed as standardized services that are processed in standardized clients, allowing creation of a rich user interface, and permitting the inclusion of platform functionality into external websites and resources. This shift to explicit service-oriented, peer-to-peer architecture is a preparation for increased distributed processing and content composition, and will support

  11. Structural geology of the African rift system: Summary of new data from ERTS-1 imagery. [Precambrian influence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mohr, P. A.

    1974-01-01

    ERTS imagery reveals for the first time the structural pattern of the African rift system as a whole. The strong influence of Precambrian structures on this pattern is clearly evident, especially along zones of cataclastic deformation, but the rift pattern is seen to be ultimately independent in origin and nature from Precambrian tectonism. Continuity of rift structures from one swell to another is noted. The widening of the Gregory rift as its northern end reflects an underlying Precambrian structural divergence, and is not a consequence of reaching the swell margin. Although the Western Rift is now proven to terminate at the Aswa Mylonite Zone, in southern Sudan, lineaments extend northeastwards from Lake Albert to the Eastern Rift at Lake Stefanie. The importance of en-echelon structures in the African rifts is seen to have been exaggerated.

  12. Transport pathways from the Asian monsoon anticyclone to the stratosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garny, Hella; Randel, William

    2016-04-01

    that trace gases, including pollutants, that are transported into the stratosphere via the Asian monsoon system are in a position to enter the tropical pipe and thus be transported into the deep stratosphere.

  13. The impact of natural aerosols on Indian summer monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vinoj, V.; Wang, H.; Yoon, J.; Rasch, P.

    2011-12-01

    Atmospheric aerosols emitted from a variety of natural and anthropogenic sources impact the earth's radiation and water budget. Most of the studies in the recent past have been focusing on anthropogenic aerosols and their impact. However, natural aerosols like sea-salt and dust form the bulk of the aerosol mass loading in the atmosphere. For example, oceans cover about 70% of the earth's surface area and are a major source of sea-salt aerosols in the atmosphere. Sea-salt emission is the single largest contributor to natural aerosols and accounts for nearly half of the global aerosol optical depth. Dust emission, the counterpart over land, also contributes substantially to natural atmospheric aerosols. In addition to their direct effect on solar radiation, these aerosols also actively participate in cloud formation by acting as cloud condensation and ice nuclei and have indirect effects on clouds. Both sea-salt and dust particles are primarily formed by the action of winds that largely determine seasonal/annual variations in their source strength and atmospheric loading. Over the Indian Ocean region, especially the Arabian Sea is characterized by high winds during the monsoon that generate a large amount of sea-salt aerosols. Also these high winds mobilize large amount of dust aerosols in the northern Arabian Sea depending on wind direction. These natural aerosols together with anthropogenic emissions impact Indian monsoon precipitation. We use satellite observation of precipitation and column aerosol loading along with a global climate model (Community Atmosphere Model version 5, CAM5) to show that the variability of natural aerosols (i.e., sea-salt and dust) play an important role in modulating the Indian monsoon precipitation and the response of the monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols. The effect of dust and sea-salt on precipitation is found to be opposite to each other. Our study suggests that the observed spatial and temporal trends in precipitation

  14. CMIP5/AMIP GCM simulations of East Asian summer monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Jinming; Wei, Ting; Dong, Wenjie; Wu, Qizhong; Wang, Yongli

    2014-07-01

    The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is a distinctive component of the Asian climate system and critically influences the economy and society of the region. To understand the ability of AGCMs in capturing the major features of EASM, 10 models that participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/AMIP), which used observational SST and sea ice to drive AGCMs during the period 1979-2008, were evaluated by comparing with observations and AMIP II simulations. The results indicated that the multi-model ensemble (MME) of CMIP5/AMIP captures the main characteristics of precipitation and monsoon circulation, and shows the best skill in EASM simulation, better than the AMIP II MME. As for the Meiyu/Changma/Baiyu rainbelt, the intensity of rainfall is underestimated in all the models. The biases are caused by a weak western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and accompanying eastward southwesterly winds in group I models, and by a too strong and west-extended WPSH as well as westerly winds in group II models. Considerable systematic errors exist in the simulated seasonal migration of rainfall, and the notable northward jumps and rainfall persistence remain a challenge for all the models. However, the CMIP5/AMIP MME is skillful in simulating the western North Pacific monsoon index (WNPMI).

  15. Interaction Between Orbital and Millennial Forcing of the Australasian Monsoon Over the Last 40,000 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krause, C.; Gagan, M. K.; Dunbar, G.; Hellstrom, J.; Phipps, S. J.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R.; Hantoro, W. S.; Abram, N.; Rifai, H.

    2013-12-01

    Orbital forcing of the global monsoon has been demonstrated on precessional timescales, however, the interactions between orbital and millennial-scale drivers of the monsoon are yet to be explored. Understanding these interactions, particularly across the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP), may help explain the varied monsoon response to Heinrich events in this region. Here we present a uranium-thorium dated speleothem δ18O record for southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia (5°S) that documents changes in Indo-Australian Summer Monsoon (IASM) rainfall over the last 40,000 years. We illustrate the spatial and temporal migration of the monsoon in response to precessional forcing through the development of a paleomonsoon map, which combines our new δ18O record with previously published speleothem δ18O records from the region. The paleomonsoon map characterizes rainfall patterns across the WPWP, and highlights the sensitivity of the periphery of the monsoon to threshold rainfall conditions caused by movement in the mean location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in response to insolation forcing. In contrast, rainfall variability in the core of the monsoon system is consistently subdued. Together, the speleothem δ18O records show that the manifestation of Heinrich events within the monsoon domain is modulated by precession-scale changes in the hemispheric difference in summer insolation. For example, during maximum southern summer insolation, when the ITCZ is south of the equator, Heinrich events amplify the underlying climate state by pushing the ITCZ even further southward, thus leading to a strong monsoon response. Our findings are supported by paleoclimate model experiments run using the CSIRO Mk3L GCM, which show an amplification (dampening) of the model monsoon response to a simulated Heinrich event under maximum southern (northern) hemisphere summer insolation forcing.

  16. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of monsoon rainfall and satellite-observed outgoing long-wave radiation for Indian monsoon: a comparative study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, C. V.

    The present study involves the use of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis/Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to compare the dominant rainfall patterns from normal rainfall records over India, coupled with the major modes of the Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data for the period (1979-1988) during the monsoon period (June-September). To understand the intraseasonal and interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall, daily and seasonal anomalies have been obtained by using the (EOF) analysis. Importantly, pattern characteristics of seasonal monsoon rainfall covering 68 stations in India are highlighted. The purpose is to ascertain the nature of rainfall distribution over the Indian continent. Based on this, the percentage of variance for both the rainfall and OLR data is examined. OLR has a higher spatial coherence than rainfall. The first principal component of rainfall data shows high positive values, which are concentrated over northeast as well as southeast, whereas for the OLR, the area of large positive values is concentrated over northwest and lower value over south India apart from the Indian ocean. The first five principal components explain 92.20% of the total variance for the rainfall and 99.50% of the total variance for the outgoing long-wave radiation. The relationship between monsoon rainfall and Southern Oscillations has also been examined and for the Southern Oscillations, it is 0.69 for the monsoon season. The El-Niño events mostly occurred during Southern Oscillations, i.e. Walker circulation. It has been found that the average number of low pressure system/low pressure system days play an important role during active (flood) or inactive (drought) monsoon year, but low pressure system days play more important role in comparison to low pressure systems and their ratio are (16:51) and (13:25) respectively. Significantly, the analysis identifies the spatial and temporal pattern characteristics of possible physical significance.

  17. Monsoon control on faunal composition of planktic foraminifera in the Arabian Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munz, P.; Siccha, M.; Kucera, M.; Schulz, H.

    2013-12-01

    Being among the most productive open ocean basins, sea surface properties in the Arabian Sea are highly influenced by the seasonal reversal of the monsoonal wind system. During boreal summer wind direction from the southwest induces strong upwelling along the coast off Somalia and Oman. Vertical transport of cold and nutrient-rich deep-water masses by Ekman pumping reduces sea surface temperature and triggers primary productivity. Reversed cold and dry winds during boreal winter lead to cooling of the surface- and subsurface-waters and hereby to deep convective mixing, bringing nutrients into the photic zone and enhancing primary productivity especially in the northern part of the Arabian Sea. Here, we study the influence of the different seasonal monsoon systems on the faunal composition of planktic foraminifera, in order to improve our understanding how the faunal community record is influenced by the respective monsoon systems and to provide baseline information for the reconstruction of ancient monsoon conditions. We used published core-top foraminiferal databases, significantly increased in spatial coverage by new contributions. The resulting combined database consists of 413 core-top samples spanning the Arabian Sea and the Northern Indian Ocean to 10° S. The seasonal sea surface properties at these stations could be binned into categories of different monsoon influence, based on satellite-derived chlorophyll-a concentrations. Interpretation of species response to environmental control is based on multivariate statistical analyses of each of the categorical bins. First results show that samples influenced only by winter- and summer monsoon conditions, respectively, feature specifiable faunal composition. Globigerina bulloides is mostly associated with summer upwelling conditions, whereas Globigerina falconensis and Pulleniatina obliquiloculata are typical species of winter conditions. Redundancy analysis reveals preferences of species populations with

  18. Differences in subclinical cardiovascular disease between African American and Caucasian women with systemic lupus erythematosus.

    PubMed

    Rhew, Elisa Y; Manzi, Susan M; Dyer, Alan R; Kao, Amy H; Danchenko, Natalya; Barinas-Mitchell, Emma; Sutton-Tyrrell, Kim; McPherson, David D; Pearce, William; Edmundowicz, Daniel; Kondos, George T; Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind

    2009-02-01

    Racial differences exist in disease rates and mortality in both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The objective of this cross-sectional study was to compare the frequency and risk factors for subclinical CVD in African American (AA) and Caucasian women with SLE and no prior CVD events. Traditional CVD risk factors and SLE-related factors were assessed in 309 SLE women. Subclinical CVD was assessed by carotid ultrasound to measure intimamedial thickness (IMT) and plaque, and electron beam computed tomography (EBCT) was used to measure coronary artery calcium (CAC). AA women had less education and higher levels of body mass index, blood pressure, lipoprotein(a), C-reactive protein (CRP), fibrinogen, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). However, AA women had lower albumin, more and longer duration of corticosteroid use, higher SLE disease activity and damage, and more dsDNA antibodies compared with Caucasian women after adjustment for age and study site. More AA women had carotid plaque (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-3.65) and higher carotid IMT (0.620 vs 0.605 mm, P = 0.07) but similar CAC compared with Caucasians. A multivariate analysis revealed that the following risk factor variables were significantly different between the racial groups and associated with plaque: blood pressure, current corticosteroid use, SLE disease activity, and SLE damage. All factors contributed to the result, but no individual risk factor fully accounted for the association between race and plaque. In conclusion, the presence of carotid plaque was higher in AA compared with Caucasian women with SLE, in contrast to studies of non-SLE subjects, in which AA have similar or less plaque than Caucasians. A combination of SLE-related and traditional CVD risk factors explained the racial difference in plaque burden. PMID:19138649

  19. Severity of systemic sclerosis-associated pulmonary arterial hypertension in African Americans.

    PubMed

    Blanco, Isabel; Mathai, Stephen; Shafiq, Majid; Boyce, Danielle; Kolb, Todd M; Chami, Hala; Hummers, Laura K; Housten, Traci; Chaisson, Neal; Zaiman, Ari L; Wigley, Fredrick M; Tedford, Ryan J; Kass, David A; Damico, Rachel; Girgis, Reda E; Hassoun, Paul M

    2014-07-01

    African Americans (AA) with systemic sclerosis (SSc) have a worse prognosis compared to Americans of European descent (EA). We conducted the current study to test the hypothesis that AA patients with SSc have more severe disease and poorer outcomes compared to EA patients when afflicted with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). We studied 160 consecutive SSc patients with PAH diagnosed by right heart catheterization, comparing demographics, hemodynamics, and outcomes between AA and EA patients. The cohort included 29 AA and 131 EA patients with similar baseline characteristics except for increased prevalence of diffuse SSc in AA. AA patients had worse functional class (FC) (80% FC III-IV vs 53%; p = 0.02), higher brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) (5729 ± 9730 pg/mL vs 1892 ± 2417 pg/mL; p = 0.02), more depressed right ventricular function, a trend toward lower 6-minute walk distance (263 ± 111  m vs 333 ± 110  m; p = 0.07), and worse hemodynamics (cardiac index 1.95 ± 0.58 L/min/m vs 2.62 ± 0.80 L/min/m; pulmonary vascular resistance 10.3 ± 6.2 WU vs 7.6 ± 5.0 WU; p  < 0.05) compared with EA patients. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for AA and EA patients, respectively, were 62% vs 73% at 2 years and 26% vs 44% at 5 years (p  > 0.05). In conclusion, AA patients with SSc-PAH are more likely to have diffuse SSc and to present with significantly more severe PAH compared with EA patients. AA patients also appear to have poorer survival, though larger studies are needed to investigate this association definitively.

  20. Ambient Noise Tomography of the East African Rift System in Mozambique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Domingues, A.; Chamussa, J.; Silveira, G. M.; Custodio, S.; Lebedev, S.; Chang, S.; Ferreira, A. M.; Fonseca, J. F.

    2013-12-01

    A wide range of studies has shown that the cross-correlation of ambient noise can provide an estimate of the Greens functions between pairs of stations. Project MOZART (funded by FCT, Lisbon, PI J. Fonseca) deployed 30 broadband (120s) seismic stations from the SEIS-UK Pool in Central Mozambique and NE South Africa, with the purpose of studying the East African Rift System (EARS) in Mozambique. We applied the Ambient Noise Tomography (ANT) method to broadband seismic data recorded from March 2011 until July 2012. Cross-correlations were computed between all pairs of stations, and from these we obtained Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion curves for all interstation paths, in the period range from 3 to 50 seconds. We tested various approaches for pre-processing the ambient noise data regarding time-domain and spectral normalisation, as well as the use of phase cross-correlations. Moreover, we examined the robustness of our dispersion maps by splitting our dataset into various sub-sets of Green's functions with similar paths and by quantifying the differences between the dispersion maps obtained from the various sub-sets of data. We find that while the geographical distribution of the group velocity anomalies is well constrained, the amplitudes of the anomalies are slightly less robust. We performed a three-dimensional inversion to obtain the S-wave velocity of the crust and upper mantle. In addition, our preliminary results show a good correlation between the Rayleigh wave group velocity and the geology of Mozambique. In order to extend the investigation to longer periods and, thus, to be able to look into the lithosphere-asthenosphere depth range in the upper mantle, we apply a recent implementation of the surface-wave two-station method (teleseismic interferometry) and augment our dataset with Rayleigh wave phase velocities curves in broad period ranges.

  1. Ambient Noise Tomography of the East African Rift System in Mozambique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Domingues, Ana; Custódio, Susana; Chamussa, José; Silveira, Graça; Chang, Sung-Joon; Lebedev, Sergei; Ferreira, Ana; Fonseca, João

    2014-05-01

    Project MOZART - MOZAmbique Rift Tomography (funded by FCT, Lisbon) deployed a total of 30 temporary broadband seismic stations from the SEIS-UK Pool in central and south Mozambique and in NE South Africa. The purpose of this project is the study of the East African Rift System (EARS) in Mozambique. We estimated preliminary locations with the data recorded from April 2011 to July 2012. A total of 307 earthquakes were located, with ML magnitudes ranging from 0.9 to 3.9. We observe a linear northeast-southwest distribution of the seismicity that seems associated to the Inhaminga fault. The seismicity in the northeast sector correlates well with the topography, tracing the Urema rift valley. The seismicity extends to ~300km, reaching the M7 2006 Machaze earthquake area. In order to obtain an initial velocity model of the region, we applied the ambient noise method to the MOZART data and two additional stations from AfricaARRAY. Cross-correlations were computed between all pairs of stations, and we obtained Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion curves for all interstation paths, in the period range from 3 to 50 seconds. The geographical distribution of the group velocity anomalies is in good agreement with the geology map of Mozambique, having lower group velocities in sedimentary basins areas and higher velocities in cratonic regions. We also observe two main regions with different velocities that may indicate a structure not proposed in previous studies. We perform a three-dimensional inversion to obtain the S-wave velocity of the crust and upper mantle, and in order to extend the investigation to longer periods we apply a recent implementation of the surface-wave two-station method (teleseismic interferometry), while augmenting our dataset with Rayleigh wave phase velocities curves in broad period ranges. In this way we expect to be able to look into the lithosphere-asthenosphere depth range.

  2. Progress in Harmonizing Tiered HIV Laboratory Systems: Challenges and Opportunities in 8 African Countries

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Jason; Umaru, Farouk; Edgil, Dianna; Kuritsky, Joel

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT In 2014, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS released its 90-90-90 targets, which make laboratory diagnostics a cornerstone for measuring efforts toward the epidemic control of HIV. A data-driven laboratory harmonization and standardization approach is one way to create efficiencies and ensure optimal laboratory procurements. Following the 2008 “Maputo Declaration on Strengthening of Laboratory Systems”—a call for government leadership in harmonizing tiered laboratory networks and standardizing testing services—several national ministries of health requested that the United States Government and in-country partners help implement the recommendations by facilitating laboratory harmonization and standardization workshops, with a primary focus on improving HIV laboratory service delivery. Between 2007 and 2015, harmonization and standardization workshops were held in 8 African countries. This article reviews progress in the harmonization of laboratory systems in these 8 countries. We examined agreed-upon instrument lists established at the workshops and compared them against instrument data from laboratory quantification exercises over time. We used this measure as an indicator of adherence to national procurement policies. We found high levels of diversity across laboratories’ diagnostic instruments, equipment, and services. This diversity contributes to different levels of compliance with expected service delivery standards. We believe the following challenges to be the most important to address: (1) lack of adherence to procurement policies, (2) absence or limited influence of a coordinating body to fully implement harmonization proposals, and (3) misalignment of laboratory policies with minimum packages of care and with national HIV care and treatment guidelines. Overall, the effort to implement the recommendations from the Maputo Declaration has had mixed success and is a work in progress. Program managers should continue efforts to

  3. Renin angiotensinogen system gene polymorphisms and essential hypertension among people of West African descent: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Reiter, L M; Christensen, D L; Gjesing, A P

    2016-08-01

    This systematic review investigates the high level of hypertension found among urban dwellers in West Africa and in the West African Diaspora in the Americas in relation to variants within the genes encoding the renin angiotensinogen system. For comparison, the results from the Caucasian populations are reviewed as well. Through a PubMed search, 1252 articles were identified and 28 eligible articles assessed in detail of which 13 included a Caucasian population. The results suggest that among the people of West African descent and among the people of Caucasian descent, hypertension is partly related to a number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and haplotypes in the renin gene, the angiotensinogen gene, the angiotensinogen I-converting enzyme gene and the angiotensinogen II type 1 receptor gene. Concordance between these two populations was found for some SNPs. However, for others, it was found that the SNPs associating with hypertension and the disease allele frequencies differed between these populations. Understanding the importance of these variants in a modern life setting may assist our understanding of the increased risk of developing hypertension among West Africans. Because of inconsistency in the results, low statistical power and methodological differences between studies, these results can only be taken as indicative of an association.

  4. Improving health information systems for decision making across five sub-Saharan African countries: Implementation strategies from the African Health Initiative

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Weak health information systems (HIS) are a critical challenge to reaching the health-related Millennium Development Goals because health systems performance cannot be adequately assessed or monitored where HIS data are incomplete, inaccurate, or untimely. The Population Health Implementation and Training (PHIT) Partnerships were established in five sub-Saharan African countries (Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia) to catalyze advances in strengthening district health systems. Interventions were tailored to the setting in which activities were planned. Comparisons across strategies All five PHIT Partnerships share a common feature in their goal of enhancing HIS and linking data with improved decision-making, specific strategies varied. Mozambique, Ghana, and Tanzania all focus on improving the quality and use of the existing Ministry of Health HIS, while the Zambia and Rwanda partnerships have introduced new information and communication technology systems or tools. All partnerships have adopted a flexible, iterative approach in designing and refining the development of new tools and approaches for HIS enhancement (such as routine data quality audits and automated troubleshooting), as well as improving decision making through timely feedback on health system performance (such as through summary data dashboards or routine data review meetings). The most striking differences between partnership approaches can be found in the level of emphasis of data collection (patient versus health facility), and consequently the level of decision making enhancement (community, facility, district, or provincial leadership). Discussion Design differences across PHIT Partnerships reflect differing theories of change, particularly regarding what information is needed, who will use the information to affect change, and how this change is expected to manifest. The iterative process of data use to monitor and assess the health system has been heavily communication

  5. Ancient origin and recent divergence of a haplochromine cichlid lineage from isolated water bodies in the East African Rift system.

    PubMed

    Hermann, C M; Sefc, K M; Koblmüller, S

    2011-11-01

    Phylogenetic analysis identified haplochromine cichlids from isolated water bodies in the eastern branch of the East African Rift system as an ancient lineage separated from their western sister group in the course of the South Kenyan-North Tanzanian rift system formation. Within this lineage, the close phylogenetic relatedness among taxa indicates a recent common ancestry and historical connections between now separated water bodies. In connection with a total lack of local genetic diversity attributable to population bottlenecks, the data suggest cycles of extinction and colonization in the unstable habitat provided by the small lakes and rivers in this geologically highly active area.

  6. Discovering Africa through Internet-Based Geographic Information Systems: A Pan-African Summit Simulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Milson, Andrew J.; Gilbert, Kathleen M.; Earle, Brian D.

    2007-01-01

    In the United States, people get very little news about Africa, and what news they do get is about war or famine, with little historical information or context. In this article, the authors describe how they developed and implemented a Pan-African Summit simulation project in order to give their approximately 100, 9th-grade students (in five World…

  7. How Would Ludwig Wittgenstein Have Performed in the Current South African Higher Education System?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Le Grange, L.

    2009-01-01

    The pressure to perform has migrated from the corporate world into academe. Academics across the globe feel this pressure to perform, often expressed as "publish or perish". I reflect on the rising culture of performativity in recent decades and how it has penetrated South African universities. In doing so, I specifically look at the academic life…

  8. Social Alienation of African American College Students: Implications for Social Support Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Redden, Charlotte E.

    Quality of life at an academic institution includes students perception of the university environment, perceptions of their cultural fit within the environment and stress created by environmental context. African American students perceived their predominantly white university more negatively than their white counterparts. Understanding the…

  9. Development of an Experimental African Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Forecasting System: A First Step towards a Global Drought Information System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Sheffield, J.; Yuan, X.

    2012-12-01

    Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts are a significant source of social and economic damage. Internationally, organizations such as UNESCO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have recognized the need for drought monitoring, especially for the developing world where drought has had devastating impacts on local populations through food insecurity and famine. Having the capacity to monitor droughts in real-time, and to provide drought forecasts with sufficient warning will help developing countries and international programs move from the management of drought crises to the management of drought risk. While observation-based assessments, such as those produced by the US Drought Monitor, are effective for monitoring in countries with extensive observation networks (of precipitation in particular), their utility is lessened in areas (e.g., Africa) where observing networks are sparse. For countries with sparse networks and weak reporting systems, remote sensing observations can provide the real-time data for the monitoring of drought. More importantly, these datasets are now available for at least a decade, which allows for the construction of a climatology against which current conditions can be compared. In this presentation we discuss the development of our multi-lingual experimental African Drought Monitor (ADM) (see http://hydrology.princeton.edu/~nchaney/ADM_ML). At the request of UNESCO, the ADM system has been installed at AGRHYMET, a regional climate and agricultural center in Niamey, Niger and at the ICPAC climate center in Nairobi, Kenya. The ADM system leverages off our U.S. drought monitoring and forecasting system (http://hydrology.princeton.edu/forecasting) that uses the NLDAS data to force the VIC land surface model (LSM) at 1/8th degree spatial resolution for the estimation of our soil moisture drought index (Sheffield et al., 2004). For the seasonal forecast of drought, CFSv2 climate

  10. Effects of Saharan Mineral Dust Aerosols on the Dynamics of an Idealized African Easterly Jet-African Easterly Wave System over North Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grogan, Dustin Francis Phillip

    The central objective of this work is to examine the direct radiative effects of Saharan mineral dust aerosols on the dynamics of African easterly waves (AEWs) and the African easterly jet (AEJ). Achieving this objective is built around two tasks that use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to an online dust model (WRF-dust model). The first task (Chapter 2) examines the linear dynamics of AEWs; the second task (Chapter 3) examines the nonlinear evolution of AEWs and their interactions with the AEJ. In Chapter 2, the direct radiative effects of dust on the linear dynamics of AEWs are examined analytically and numerically. The analytical analysis combines the thermodynamic equation with a dust continuity equation to form an expression for the generation of eddy available potential energy (APE) by the dust field. The generation of eddy APE is a function of the transmissivity and spatial gradients of the dust, which are modulated by the Doppler-shifted frequency. The expression predicts that for a fixed dust distribution, the wave response will be largest in regions where the dust gradients are maximized and the Doppler-shifted frequency vanishes. The numerical analysis calculates the linear dynamics of AEWs using zonally averaged basic states for wind, temperature and dust consistent with summertime conditions over North Africa. For the fastest growing AEW, the dust increases the growth rate from ~15% to 90% for aerosol optical depths ranging from tau=1.0 to tau=2.5. A local energetics analysis shows that for tau=1.0, the dust increases the maximum barotropic and baroclinic energy conversions by ~50% and ~100%, respectively. The maxima in the generation of APE and conversions of energy are co-located and occur where the meridional dust gradient is maximized near the critical layer, i.e., where the Doppler-shifted frequency is small, in agreement with the prediction from the analytical analysis. In Chapter 3, the direct radiative effects of dust

  11. Southern Hemisphere imprint for Indo-Asian summer monsoons during the last glacial period as revealed by Arabian Sea productivity records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caley, T.; Zaragosi, S.; Bourget, J.; Martinez, P.; Malaizé, B.; Eynaud, F.; Rossignol, L.; Garlan, T.; Ellouz-Zimmermann, N.

    2013-11-01

    The monsoon is one of the most important climatic phenomena: it promotes inter-hemispheric exchange of energy and affects the economical prosperity of several countries exposed to its seasonal seesaw. Previous studies in both the Indian and Asian monsoon systems have generally suggested a dominant northern hemispheric (NH) control on summer monsoon dynamics at the scale of suborbital-millennial climatic changes, while the forcing/response of Indian and Asian monsoons at the orbital scale remains a matter of debate. Here, six marine sediment cores distributed across the whole Arabian Sea are used to build a regional surface marine productivity signal. The productivity signal is driven by the intensity of Indian summer monsoon winds. Our results demonstrate the existence of an imprint of suborbital southern hemispheric (SH) temperature changes (i.e. Antarctica) on the Indian summer monsoon during the last glacial period that is generally not recognized. During the last deglaciation, the NH played a more significant role. This suggests that fluctuations in the Indian monsoon are better explained in a bipolar context. The δ18O signal recorded in the Asian monsoon speleothem records could be exported by winds from the Indian summer monsoon region, as recently proposed in modelling exercise, explaining the SH signature observed in Asian cave speleothems. Contrary to the view of a passive response of Indian and Asian monsoons to NH anomalies, the present results appear to suggest that the Indo-Asian summer monsoon plays an active role in amplifying millennial inter-hemispheric asymmetric patterns. Additionally, this study confirms previously observed differences between Indian and Asian speleothem monsoonal records at the orbital-precession scale.

  12. Observed Oceanic and Terrestrial Drivers of North African Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Wang, F.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Wei, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Hydrologic variability can pose a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Yet, the current understanding of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers of North African droughts/pluvials is largely model-based, with vast disagreement among models. In order to identify the observed drivers of North African climate and develop a benchmark for model evaluations, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is applied to observations, remotely sensed data, and reanalysis products. The identified primary oceanic drivers of North African rainfall variability are the Atlantic, tropical Indian, and tropical Pacific Oceans and Mediterranean Sea. During the summer monsoon, positive tropical eastern Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies are associated with a southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, enhanced ocean evaporation, and greater precipitable water across coastal West Africa, leading to increased West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall and decreased Sahel rainfall. During the short rains, positive SST anomalies in the western tropical Indian Ocean and negative anomalies in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean support greater easterly oceanic flow, evaporation over the western ocean, and moisture advection to East Africa, thereby enhancing rainfall. The sign, magnitude, and timing of observed vegetation forcing on rainfall vary across North Africa. The positive feedback of leaf area index (LAI) on rainfall is greatest during DJF for the Horn of Africa, while it peaks in autumn and is weakest during the summer monsoon for the Sahel. Across the WAM region, a positive LAI anomaly supports an earlier monsoon onset, increased rainfall during the pre-monsoon, and decreased rainfall during the wet season. Through unique mechanisms, positive LAI anomalies favor enhanced transpiration, precipitable water, and rainfall across the Sahel and Horn of Africa, and increased roughness, ascent, and rainfall across the WAM region

  13. Numerical modeling of continental rifting: Implications for the East African Rift system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koptev, Alexander; Burov, Evgueni; Calais, Eric; Leroy, Sylvie; Gerya, Taras; Guillou-Frottier, Laurent; Cloetingh, Sierd

    2016-04-01

    The East African Rift system (EARS) provides a unique system with juxtaposition of two contrasting yet simultaneously formed rift branches, the eastern, magma-rich, and the western, magma-poor, on either side of the old thick Tanzanian craton embedded into younger lithosphere. Here we take advantage of the improvements in our understanding of deep structures, geological evolution and recent kinematics, together with new cutting edge numerical modeling techniques to design a three-dimensional ultra-high resolution viscous plastic thermo-mechanical numerical model that accounts for thermo-rheological structure of the lithosphere and hence captures the essential geophysical features of the central EARS. Based on our experiments, we show that in case of the mantle plume seeded slightly to the northeast of the craton center, the ascending plume material is deflected by the cratonic keel and preferentially channeled along the eastern side of the craton, leading to formation of a large rift zone characterized by important magmatic activity with substantial amounts of melts derived from mantle plume material. This model is in good agreement with the observations in the EARS, as it reproduces the magmatic eastern branch and at the same time, anticlockwise rotation of the craton. However, this experiment does not reproduce the observed strain localization along the western margin of the cratonic bloc. To explain the formation of contrasting magmatic and amagmatic rift branches initiating simultaneously on either side of a non-deforming block as observed in the central EARS, we experimentally explored several scenarios of which three can be retained as specifically pertaining to the EARS: (1) The most trivial first scenario assumes rheologically weak vertical interface simulating the suture zone observed in the geological structure along the western border of the craton; (2) The second scenario involves a second smaller plume initially shifted in SW direction; (3) Finally, a

  14. Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2015-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

  15. The Implementation of an NOAO MONSOON CCD Controller for the FHiRE Spectrograph at Indiana University

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grounds, Michael

    2007-12-01

    An NOAO MONSOON CCD controller will be used with the Fiber High Resolution Echelle Spectrograph (FHiRE) under construction at Indiana University. In preparation for integration of the FHiRE CCD system, work on the MONSOON controller was initiated. MONSOON clocking signals and bias voltages were checked electronically to confirm they were produced as expected against standard configuration files delivered with the MONSOON software. Diagnosis revealed the need to replace one operational amplifier. Once the amplifier was replaced on the clock and bias board, the controller produced the expected signals within specification. The MONSOON image acquisition software was then tested with a simulated SITe detector head and the test images were evaluated. From the test data, we were able to correlate input from the simulated CCD with specific quadrants in the image. The default configuration files from NOAO were modified for the SITe CCD to be tested. MONSOON schematics and technical documentation were reviewed for the design of wiring diagrams to connect the MONSOON detector head electronics to a SITe 1024 x 1024 CCD for testing purposes. The design is now complete and the connector will be wired to allow us to test an actual SITe CCD for image acquisition. Support for this research by the NSF Grants AST-0452975 and NSF AST-0206202 is gratefully acknowledged.

  16. Monsoon-driven transport of organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls to the Tibetan Plateau: three year atmospheric monitoring study.

    PubMed

    Sheng, Jiujiang; Wang, Xiaoping; Gong, Ping; Joswiak, Daniel R; Tian, Lide; Yao, Tandong; Jones, Kevin C

    2013-04-01

    Due to the influence of the Indian monsoon system, air mass transport in and to the Tibetan Plateau shows obvious seasonality. In order to assess the responses of atmospheric concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the Indian Monsoon fluctuation patterns, a three year air monitoring program (2008-2011) was conducted in an observation station close to the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The air concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) are generally comparable to those of other remote regions, whereas the concentrations of DDTs are much higher than reported for the polar regions, the North American Rocky Mountains, and the European Alps. The concentrations of DDTs and PCBs were strongly linked to the cyclic patterns of the Indian monsoon, displaying higher values in the monsoon season (May-September) and lower values in the nonmonsoon season (November-March). A "bimodal" pattern was observed for α- and γ-HCH, with higher concentrations in spring and autumn and lower concentrations in the summer (monsoon season). Rain scavenging in the monsoon season likely resulted in the lower HCH concentrations in the atmosphere. This paper sheds lights on the role the Indian monsoon plays on the atmospheric transport of POPs to the Tibetan Plateau. PMID:23452228

  17. Interannual variability of the Indian monsoon and the Southern Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, M.; Hastenrath, S.

    1986-01-01

    Years with abundant Southwest monsoon rainfall in India are characterized by anomalously low pressure over South Asia and the adjacent waters, enhanced cross-equatorial flow in the western, and increased cloudiness over the northern portion of the Indian Ocean, continuing from the pre-monsoon through the post-monsoon season; positive temperature anomalies over land and in the Arabian Sea in the pre-monsoon season, changing to negative departures after the monsoon onset. The following causality chain is suggested: the anomalously warm surfaces of south Asia and the adjacent ocean in the pre-monsoon season induce a thermal low, thus enhancing the northward directed pressure gradient, and favoring a vigorous cross-equatorial flow over the Indian Ocean. After the monsoon onset the land surfaces are cooled by evaporation, and the Arabian Sea surface waters by various wind stress effects. However, latent heat release over South Asia can now maintain the meridional topography gradients essential to the monsoon circulation. The positive phase of the Southern Oscillation (high pressure over the Eastern South Pacific) is associated with circulation departures in the Indian Ocean sector similar to those characteristic of years with abundant India monsoon rainfall. Abundant rainfall over India during the northern summer monsoon leads the positive mode of the southern Oscillation, and this in turn leads Java rainfall, whose peak is timed about half a year after that of India. A rising Southern Oscillation tendency presages abundant India Southwest Monsoon rainfall but a late monsoon onset. 46 references, 9 figures, 4 tables.

  18. Inverse relation between summer and winter monsoon strength during late Holocene: continental molecular isotopic record from the Indian subcontinent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanyal, P.; Basu, S.; Pillai, A.; Singh, P.; Ratnam, J.; Sankaran, M.; Amibili, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Indian monsoon shapes the livelihood of ca. 40% of world's population. Despite dedicated efforts, comprehensive picture of monsoon variability has proved elusive largely due to the absence of long-term qualitative high-resolution record from key climatic zones and variability of monsoon with respect to various forcing mechanisms (e.g., solar insolation) and teleconnections (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole). In this study, high-resolution molecular (n-alkane) isotopic (δD and δ13C ratios) reconstruction of mid-late Holocene (~5.0 cal ka) climate has been undertaken using lacustrine sediments from two climatically sensitive regions; (i) Arid Banni grasslands, western India with dominant moisture source derived from Indian summer monsoon (June-September) and (ii) Semi-arid Ennamangalam lake, south India with significant fraction of rainfall received during winter period (October to December) from Northeast (NE) monsoon. The climate reconstruction from western India based on δDn-alkane values shows prevalence of intensified monsoon until ca. 3 cal ka followed by gradual decrease in the precipitation. In contrast, climate reconstruction from south India is characterized by more negative δDn-alkane (intensified precipitation) values during late Holocene (~2.5 cal ka). The compilation of paleoclimate records shows that the precipitation pattern in Banni region responded linearly to gradually changing insolation and additionally amplified by climate systems like ENSO. However, intensified monsoon in South India shows strengthened NE monsoonal precipitation during late Holocene. The spatial inhomogeneity in the palaeohydrological record can be attributed to the persistence of inverse relationship between summer and winter monsoon. In addition, strong positive correlation between δDn-alkane and δ13Cn-alkane values from both region shows that the relative abundance of C3-C4 plants in the contemporary ecosystems are governed by rainfall

  19. Adaptation for Planting and Irrigation Decisions to Changing Monsoon Regime in Northeast India: Risk-based Hydro-economic Optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, T.; Cai, X.

    2013-12-01

    Delay in onset of Indian summer monsoon becomes increasingly frequent. Delayed monsoon and occasional monsoon failures seriously affect agricultural production in the northeast as well as other parts of India. In the Vaishali district of the Bihar State, Monsoon rainfall is very skewed and erratic, often concentrating in shorter durations. Farmers in Vaishali reported that delayed Monsoon affected paddy planting and, consequently delayed cropping cycle, putting crops under the risks of 'terminal heat.' Canal system in the district does not function due to lack of maintenance; irrigation relies almost entirely on groundwater. Many small farmers choose not to irrigate when monsoon onset is delayed due to high diesel price, leading to reduced production or even crop failure. Some farmers adapt to delayed onset of Monsoon by planting short-duration rice, which gives the flexibility for planting the next season crops. Other sporadic autonomous adaptation activities were observed as well, with various levels of success. Adaptation recommendations and effective policy interventions are much needed. To explore robust options to adapt to the changing Monsoon regime, we build a stochastic programming model to optimize revenues of farmer groups categorized by landholding size, subject to stochastic Monsoon onset and rainfall amount. Imperfect probabilistic long-range forecast is used to inform the model onset and rainfall amount probabilities; the 'skill' of the forecasting is measured using probabilities of correctly predicting events in the past derived through hindcasting. Crop production functions are determined using self-calibrating Positive Mathematical Programming approach. The stochastic programming model aims to emulate decision-making behaviors of representative farmer agents through making choices in adaptation, including crop mix, planting dates, irrigation, and use of weather information. A set of technological and policy intervention scenarios are tested

  20. Simulation of the Indian and East-Asian summer monsoon in the ECMWF model: Sensitivity to horizontal resolution

    SciTech Connect

    Sperber, K.R.; Potter, G.L.; Boyle, J.S.; Hameed, S.

    1993-11-01

    The ability of the ECMWF model (Cycle 33) to simulate the Indian and East Asian summer monsoon is evaluated at four different horizontal resolutions: T21, T42, T63, and T106. Generally, with respect to the large scale features of the circulation, the largest differences among the simulations occur at T42 relative to T21. However, on regional scales, important differences among the high frequency temporal variabilitY serve as a further critical test of the model`s ability to simulate the monsoon. More generally, the results indicate the importance of evaluating high frequency time scales as a component of the climate system. T106 best captures both the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Indian and East Asian Monsoon, while T42 fails to correctly simulate the sequence and development of synoptic scale milestones that characterize the monsoon flow. In particular, T106 is superior at simulating the development and migration of the monsoon trough over the Bay of Bengal. In the T42 simulation, the development of the monsoon occurs one month earlier than typically observed. At this time the trough is incorrectly located adjacent to the east coast of India which results in an underestimate of precipitation over the Burma/Thailand region. This early establishment of the monsoon trough affects the evolution of the East-Asian monsoon and yields excessive preseason rainfall over the Mei-yu region. EOF analysis of precipitation over China indicates that T106 best simulates the Mei-yu mode of variability associated with an oscillation of the rainband that gives rise to periods of enhanced rainfall over the Yangize River Valley. The coarse resolution of T21 precludes simulation of the aforementioned regional scale monsoon flows.

  1. Ecology and productivity of an African wetland system: The Kafue, Zambia

    SciTech Connect

    Ellenbroek, G.A.

    1987-01-01

    This book discusses the main ecological processes in African floodplain grasslands. It researches the structure of the various types of grasslands, and their correlation with the environmental factors operating in the floodplain ecosystem. From detailed measurements of structure and biomass it estimates primary production in various habitats. It also surveys the impact of disturbing factors like grazing and fires and discusses the year to year variation in the ecosystems.

  2. East African Rift Valley, Kenya

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    This rare, cloud free view of the East African Rift Valley, Kenya (1.5N, 35.5E) shows a clear view of the Turkwell River Valley, an offshoot of the African REift System. The East African Rift is part of a vast plate fracture which extends from southern Turkey, through the Red Sea, East Africa and into Mozambique. Dark green patches of forests are seen along the rift margin and tea plantations occupy the cooler higher ground.

  3. Extended Range Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon: Current status

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Borah, N.; Joseph, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.; S, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Mandal, R.; Dey, A.

    2014-12-01

    The main focus of this study is to develop forecast consensus in the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon Intraseasonal oscillations using a suit of different variants of Climate Forecast system (CFS) model. In this CFS based Grand MME prediction system (CGMME), the ensemble members are generated by perturbing the initial condition and using different configurations of CFSv2. This is to address the role of different physical mechanisms known to have control on the error growth in the ERP in the 15-20 day time scale. The final formulation of CGMME is based on 21 ensembles of the standalone Global Forecast System (GFS) forced with bias corrected forecasted SST from CFS, 11 low resolution CFST126 and 11 high resolution CFST382. Thus, we develop the multi-model consensus forecast for the ERP of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using a suite of different variants of CFS model. This coordinated international effort lead towards the development of specific tailor made regional forecast products over Indian region. Skill of deterministic and probabilistic categorical rainfall forecast as well the verification of large-scale low frequency monsoon intraseasonal oscillations has been carried out using hindcast from 2001-2012 during the monsoon season in which all models are initialized at every five days starting from 16May to 28 September. The skill of deterministic forecast from CGMME is better than the best participating single model ensemble configuration (SME). The CGMME approach is believed to quantify the uncertainty in both initial conditions and model formulation. Main improvement is attained in probabilistic forecast which is because of an increase in the ensemble spread, thereby reducing the error due to over-confident ensembles in a single model configuration. For probabilistic forecast, three tercile ranges are determined by ranking method based on the percentage of ensemble members from all the participating models falls in those three categories. CGMME further

  4. Warm Indian Ocean, Weak Asian Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koll Roxy, Mathew; Ritika, Kapoor; Terray, Pascal; Murtugudde, Raghu; Ashok, Karumuri; Nath Goswami, Buphendra

    2015-04-01

    There are large uncertainties looming over the status and fate of the South Asian monsoon in a changing climate. Observations and climate models have suggested that anthropogenic warming in the past century has increased the moisture availability and the land-sea thermal contrast in the tropics, favoring an increase in monsoon rainfall. In contrast, we notice that South Asian subcontinent experienced a relatively subdued warming during this period. At the same time, the tropical Indian Ocean experienced a nearly monotonic warming, at a rate faster than the other tropical oceans. Using long-term observations and coupled model experiments, we suggest that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming along with the suppressed warming of the subcontinent weaken the land-sea thermal contrast throughout the troposphere, dampen the monsoon Hadley circulation, and reduce the rainfall over South Asia. As a result, the summer monsoon rainfall during 1901-2012 shows a significant weakening trend over South Asia, extending from Pakistan through central India to Bangladesh.

  5. Earth as diode: monsoon source of the orbital ~100 ka climate cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, R. Y.

    2010-08-01

    A potential source for Earth's enigmatic ~100 ka climate cycle, which is found in many ancient geological records at low latitudes and also in the pacing of glaciation during the late Pleistocene, is traced to a climatic rectifying process inherent in the monsoon. Seasonal information needed to identify the rectifying mechanism is preserved within varves of a continuous, 200 ka recording of annual maximum surface temperature (Tmax) from the equator of Western Pangea. Specific seasonal reactions recorded in varves show how the monsoon reacted to seasonal differences in insolation at equinox to produce a 11.7 ka semi-precession cycle in Tmax. At solstice, anti-phasing of insolation in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, intensified and focused by a highly asymmetric Pangea relative to the equator, produced a strong equatorial maritime monsoon that performed a nonlinear rectifying function similar to that of a simple rectifying diode. Expressed in the resulting varve series are substantial cycles in Tmax of 100 ka, 23.4 ka, and 11.7 ka. Importantly, any external or internal forcing of the tropical (monsoon) climate system at higher-than-orbital frequencies (e.g. solar, ENSO) should also be amplified at Milankovitch frequencies by the monsoon.

  6. Reconstructing the variability in the Indian monsoon over the last 20,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schulenberg, S. A.; Came, R. E.; Johnson, J. E.; Giosan, L.

    2011-12-01

    The Asian monsoon rains provide freshwater to one of the most densely populated regions on Earth. However, despite the societal and economic importance of the monsoon system, its forcing mechanisms are not fully understood. It is widely accepted that on orbital timescales the strength of the Asian monsoon varies in response to changes in northern hemisphere (NH) summer insolation, which is primarily controlled by precession. Paleoclimate archives from around the region yield conflicting evidence about the timing of the monsoonal response with respect to NH insolation changes [e.g., Clemens and Prell, 2003; Wang et al., 2001], perhaps suggesting a complex relationship between insolation forcing and climatic response. We present new down-core records of paired planktic foraminiferal Mg/Ca-derived sea surface temperatures and seawater δ18O since the Last Glacial Maximum, which we generated using an intermediate depth sediment core retrieved from the Mahanadi Basin within the northwestern Bay of Bengal. When compared to previously published results [Rashid et al., 2007, 2011], our new results reveal geographic variations in sea surface hydrography within the Bay of Bengal over the past 20,000 years. The timing of these variations will be interpreted in light of known changes in NH summer insolation and within the context of previously published paleoclimate archives from the entire Asian monsoon region.

  7. The Field Operations and Early Results of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K. M.; Ding, Yihui; Wang, Jough-Tai; Johnson, Richard; Keenan, Tom; Cifelli, Robert; Gerlach, John; Thiele, Otto; Rickenbach, Tom; Tsay, Si-Chee

    1999-01-01

    The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) is an international field experiment with the objective to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the Asian summer monsoon in relation to fluctuation of the regional hydrologic cycle over Southeast Asian, southern East Asia, aiming at improving monsoon prediction. In this article, we present a description of the major meteorological observation platforms during the Intensive Observing Periods (IOP) of SCSMEX. We also provide highlights of early results and discussions of the role of SCSMEX in providing valuable in-situ data for calibration of satellite rainfall estimate from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Preliminary results indicate that there are distinctive stages in the onset of the South China Sea monsoon including possibly strong influences from extratropical systems as well as from convection over the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. There are some tantalizing evidence of complex interactions between the supercloud cluster development over the Indian Ocean, advancing southwest monsoon flow over the South China Sea, midlatitude disturbances and the western Pacific subtropical high, possibly contributing to the disastrous flood over Yangtze River Basin in China during June 1998.

  8. Assessment of the Impact of The East Asian Summer Monsoon on the Air Quality Over China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Nan; Ding, Aijun; Safieddine, Sarah; Valks, Pieter; Clerbaux, Cathy; Trautmann, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    Air pollution is one of the most important environmental problems in developing Asian countries like China. In this region, studies showed that the East Asian monsoon plays a significant role in characterizing the temporal variation and spatial patterns of air pollution, since monsoon is a major atmospheric system affecting air mass transport, convection, and precipitation. Knowledge gaps still exist in the understanding of Asian monsoon impact on the air quality in China under the background of global climate change. For the first time satellite observations of tropospheric ozone and its precursors will be integrated with the ground-based, aircraft measurements of air pollutants and model simulations to study the impact of the East Asian monsoon on air quality in China. We apply multi-platform satellite observations by the GOME-2, IASI, and MOPITT instruments to analyze tropospheric ozone and CO, precursors of ozone (NO2, HCHO and CHOCHO) and other related trace gases over China. Two years measurements of air pollutants including NO2, HONO, SO2, HCHO and CHOCHO at a regional back-ground site in the western part of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in eastern China will be presented. The potential of using the current generation of satellite instruments, ground-based instruments and aircraft to monitor air quality changes caused by the East Asian monsoon circulation will be presented. Preliminary comparison results between satellite measurement and limited but valuable ground-based and aircraft measurements will also be showed.

  9. Minimal Role of Basal Shear Tractions in Driving Nubia-Somalia Divergence Across the East African Rift System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stamps, D. S.; Calais, E.; Iaffaldano, G.; Flesch, L. M.

    2012-12-01

    The Nubian and Somalian plates actively diverge along the topographically high, ~5000 km long East African Rift System (EARS). As no major subduction zones bound Africa, one can assume that the forces driving the Nubia-Somalia plate system result primarily from mantle buoyancies and lateral variation in lithospheric gravitational potential energy. Images from seismic tomography and convection models suggest active mantle flow beneath Africa. However, the contribution from large-scale convection to the force balance driving plate divergence across the EARS remains in question. In this work we investigate the impact of mantle shear tractions on the dynamics of Nubia-Somalia divergence across the EARS. We compare surface motions inferred from GPS observations with strain rates and velocities predicted from dynamic models where basal shear stresses are (1) derived from forward mantle circulation models and (2) inferred from stress field boundary conditions that balance buoyancy forces in the African lithosphere. Upper mantle anisotropy derived from seismic observations beneath Africa provide independent constraints for the latter. Preliminary results suggest that basal shear tractions play a minor role in the dynamics of Nubia-Somalia divergence along the EARS. This result implies mantle-lithosphere decoupling, possibly promoted by a low viscosity asthenosphere. We corroborate the robustness of our results with estimates of upper mantle viscosity based on local upper mantle temperature estimates and rheological parameters obtained from laboratory experiments.

  10. Idiosyncratic sound systems of the South African Bantu languages: Research and clinical implications for speech-language pathologists and audiologists.

    PubMed

    Van der Merwe, Anita; le Roux, Mia

    2014-12-03

    The objective of this article is to create awareness amongst speech-language pathologists and audiologists in South Africa regarding the difference between the sound systems of Germanic languages and the sound systems of South African Bantu languages. A brief overview of the sound systems of two Bantu languages, namely isiZulu and Setswana, is provided. These two languages are representative of the Nguni language group and the Sotho group respectively.Consideration is given to the notion of language-specific symptoms of speech, language and hearing disorders in addition to universal symptoms. The possible impact of speech production, language and hearing disorders on the ability to produce and perceive speech in these languages, and the challenges that this holds for research and clinical practice, are pointed out.

  11. Southern Hemisphere imprint for Indo-Asian summer monsoons during the last glacial period as revealed by Arabian Sea productivity records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caley, T.; Zaragosi, S.; Bourget, J.; Martinez, P.; Malaizé, B.; Eynaud, F.; Rossignol, L.; Garlan, T.; Ellouz-Zimmermann, N.

    2013-06-01

    The monsoon is one of the most important climatic phenomena: it promotes inter-hemispheric exchange of energy and affects the economical prosperity of several countries exposed to its seasonal seesaw. Previous studies in both the Indian and Asian monsoon systems have suggested a dominant north hemispheric (NH) control on summer monsoon dynamics at the scale of suborbital-millennial climatic changes, while the forcing/response of Indian and Asian monsoons at the orbital scale remains a matter of debate. Here nine marine sediment cores distributed across the whole Arabian Sea are used to build a regional surface marine productivity signal. The productivity signal is driven by the intensity of Indian summer monsoon winds. Results demonstrate the existence of an imprint of suborbital Southern Hemisphere (SH) temperature changes (i.e., Antarctica) on the Indian summer monsoon during the last glacial period, challenging the traditional and exclusive NH forcing hypothesis. Meanwhile, during the last deglaciation, the NH plays a more significant role. The δ18O signal recorded in the Asian monsoon speleothem records could be exported by winds from the Indian summer monsoon region, as recently proposed in modelling exercise, explaining the SH signature observed in Asian cave speleothems. Contrary to the view of a passive response of Indian and Asian monsoons to NH anomalies, the present results strongly suggest that the Indo-Asian summer monsoon plays an active role in amplifying millennial inter-hemispheric asymmetric patterns. Additionally, this study helps to decipher the observed differences between Indian and Asian-speleothem monsoonal records at the orbital-precession scale.

  12. Trace gas variability within the Asian monsoon anticyclone on intraseasonal and interannual timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nützel, Matthias; Dameris, Martin; Fierli, Federico; Stiller, Gabriele; Garny, Hella; Jöckel, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The Asian monsoon and the associated monsoon anticyclone have the potential of substantially influencing the composition of the UTLS (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere) and hence global climate. Here we study the variability of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone in the UTLS on intraseasonal and interannual timescales using results from long term simulations performed with the CCM EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). In particular, we focus on specified dynamics simulations (Newtonian relaxation to ERA-Interim data) covering the period 1980-2013, which have been performed within the ESCiMo (Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling) project (Jöckel et al., GMDD, 2015). Our main focus lies on variability of the anticyclone's strength (in terms of potential vorticity, geopotential and circulation) and variability in trace gas signatures (O3, H2O) within the anticyclone. To support our findings, we also include observations from satellites (MIPAS, MLS). Our work is linked to the EU StratoClim campaign in 2016.

  13. A qualitative study of relationships among parenting strategies, social capital, the juvenile justice system, and mental health care for at-risk African American male youth.

    PubMed

    Richardson, Joseph B; Brakle, Mischelle Van

    2011-10-01

    For many poor, African American families living in the inner city, the juvenile justice system has become a de facto mental health service provider. In this article, longitudinal, ethnographic study methods were used to examine how resource-deprived, inner-city parents in a New York City community relied on the juvenile justice system to provide their African American male children with mental health care resources. The results of three case studies indicate that this strategy actually contributed to an escalation in delinquency among the youth. PMID:22067116

  14. Regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics inferred from speleothems: Potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.; Marwan, Norbert; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Rehfeld, Kira; Kurths, Jürgen

    2014-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system has been recognized as an important potential tipping element in Earth's climate. A global warming-driven change in monsoonal circulation, potentially towards a drier and more irregular regime, would profoundly affect up to 60% of the global human population. Hence, to improve our understanding of this major climate system, it is mandatory to investigate evidence for nonlinear transitions in past monsoonal dynamics and the underlying mechanisms that are contained in the available palaeoclimatic record. For this purpose, speleothems are among the best available high-resolution archives of Asian palaeomonsoonal variability during the Holocene and well beyond. In this work, we apply recurrence networks, a recently developed technique for nonlinear time series analysis of palaeoclimate data (Donges et al., PNAS 108, 20422-20427, 2011), for detecting episodes with pronounced changes in Asian monsoon dynamics during the last 10 ka in oxygen isotope records from spatially distributed cave deposits covering the different branches of the Asian monsoon system. Our methodology includes multiple archives, explicit consideration of dating uncertainties with the COPRA approach and rigorous significance testing to ensure the robust detection of continental-scale changes in monsoonal dynamics. We identify several periods characterised by nonlinear changes in Asian monsoon dynamics (e.g., ~0.5, 2.2-2.8, 3.6-4.1, 5.4-5.7, and 8.0-8.5 ka before present [BP]), the timing of which suggests a connection to extra-tropical Bond events and rapid climate change (RCC) episodes during the Holocene. Interestingly, we furthermore detect an epoch of significantly increased regularity of monsoonal variations around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that is consistent with the typical 1.0-1.5 ka periodicity of Bond events but has been rarely reported in the literature so far. Furthermore, we find that the detected epochs of nonlinear regime shifts in Asian monsoon dynamics partly

  15. Ecosystem Response to Monsoon Rainfall Variability in Southwestern North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Feyen, Luc; Vivoni, Enrique

    2013-04-01

    Due to its marked plant phenology driven by precipitation, the North American Monsoon System (NAMS) can serve to reveal ecological responses to climate variability and change in water-controlled regions. This study attempts to elucidate the effects of monsoon rainfall variability on vegetation dynamics over the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) tier I domain (20°-35° N, 105°-115° W). To this end, we analyze long-term dynamics (1982-2004) in seasonal precipitation (Pr), net primary production (NPP) and rain-use efficiency (RUE) based on phenological and biophysical memory metrics from NOAA CPC daily 1° gridded precipitation data and satellite GIMMS semi-monthly NDVI images at 8-km resolution. We focus our analysis on six diverse ecosystems spanning from semi-arid and desert environments to tropical deciduous forests to investigate: 1) the spatially averaged NPP/RUE profiles along the regional Pr gradient, 2) the linkage between NPP and Pr inter-annual variations and 3) the long-term trends of Pr, NPP and RUE. All the biomes show an increase (decrease) in mean NPP (RUE) along the mean seasonal precipitation gradient ranging from 100 to 900 mm. Variations in NPP/RUE profiles differ strongly across ecosystems and show threshold behaviors likely resulting from different physiological responses to climate effects and landscape features. Statistical analysis suggests that the inter-annual variability in NPP is significantly related to the temporal variability in precipitation. In particular, we found that forest biomes are more sensitive to inter-annual variations in precipitation regimes. Semi-arid ecosystems appear to be more resilient, probably because they are more exposed to extreme conditions and consequently better adapted to greater inter and intra-annual climate variability. The long-term positive signal in RUE imposed on its inter-annual variability, which results from a constant NPP under negative long-term trends of Pr, indicates an improved

  16. Transport pathways from the Asian monsoon anticyclone to the stratosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garny, Hella; Randel, William J.

    2016-03-01

    Transport pathways of air originating in the upper-tropospheric Asian monsoon anticyclone are investigated based on three-dimensional trajectories. The Asian monsoon anticyclone emerges in response to persistent deep convection over India and southeast Asia in northern summer, and this convection is associated with rapid transport from the surface to the upper troposphere and possibly into the stratosphere. Here, we investigate the fate of air that originates within the upper-tropospheric anticyclone from the outflow of deep convection, using trajectories driven by ERA-interim reanalysis data. Calculations include isentropic estimates, plus fully three-dimensional results based on kinematic and diabatic transport calculations. Isentropic calculations show that air parcels are typically confined within the anticyclone for 10-20 days and spread over the tropical belt within a month of their initialization. However, only few parcels (3 % at 360 K, 8 % at 380 K) reach the extratropical stratosphere by isentropic transport. When considering vertical transport we find that 31 % or 48 % of the trajectories reach the stratosphere within 60 days when using vertical velocities or diabatic heating rates to calculate vertical transport, respectively. In both cases, most parcels that reach the stratosphere are transported upward within the anticyclone and enter the stratosphere in the tropics, typically 10-20 days after their initialization at 360 K. This suggests that trace gases, including pollutants, that are transported into the stratosphere via the Asian monsoon system are in a position to enter the tropical pipe and thus be transported into the deep stratosphere. Sensitivity calculations with respect to the initial altitude of the trajectories showed that air needs to be transported to levels of 360 K or above by deep convection to likely (≧ 50 %) reach the stratosphere through transport by the large-scale circulation.

  17. Dirtier Air from a Weaker Monsoon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian

    2012-01-01

    The level of air pollution in China has much increased in the past decades, causing serious health problems. Among the main pollutants are aerosols, also known as particulate matter: tiny, invisible particles that are suspended in the air. These particles contribute substantially to premature mortality associated with cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer1. The increase of the aerosol level in China has been commonly attributed to the fast rise in pollutant emissions from the rapid economic development in the region. However, writing in Geophysical Research Letters, Jianlei Zhu and colleagues2 tell a different side of the story: using a chemical transport model and observation data, they show that the decadal scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon has also contributed to the increase of aerosol concentrations in China. The life cycle of atmospheric aerosols starts with its emission or formation in the atmosphere. Some aerosol components such as dust, soot and sea salt are emitted directly as particles to the atmosphere, but others are formed there by way of photochemical reactions. For example, sulphate and nitrate aerosols are produced from their respective precursor gases, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Aerosol particles can be transported away from their source locations by winds or vertical motion of the air. Eventually, they are removed from the atmosphere by means of dry deposition and wet scavenging by precipitation. Measurements generally show that aerosol concentrations over Asia are lowest during the summer monsoon season3, because intense rainfall efficiently removes them from the air. The East Asian summer monsoon extends over subtropics and mid-latitudes. Its rainfall tends to concentrate in rain belts that stretch out for many thousands of kilometres and affect China, Korea, Japan and the surrounding area. Observations suggest that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation have been in decline since the 1970s4. In

  18. Effect of land-atmosphere interactions on mesoscale convection and precipitation over the Indian monsoon region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Hsin-I.

    Whether enhanced land surface representation can improve the ability of mesoscale weather forecast models is examined in this dissertation by performing numerical simulations on the convective systems over the Indian monsoon region. Three types of mesoscale convection systems were examined at meso alpha, beta and gamma scales using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The first task analyzed a localized heavy rain event associated with individual mesoscale convective cells. The hypothesis tested is: Observed deep convection and heavy rain events over the Indian monsoon region can be better simulated by mesoscale models with accurate land use land cover representation. The second task focused on three different land-falling tropical depressions. These monsoon depressions (MDs) occurred in August 2006 over the Bay of Bengal. The hypothesis tested is: Antecedent soil moisture and land surface representation can affect the inland mesoscale convection and rainfall associated with the land falling MDs. The third task dealt with three thunderstorm events over eastern India observed during the Severe Thunderstorms-Observations and Regional Modeling field program in 2006 and 2007. The hypothesis tested is: Convection initiation and mesoscale precipitation is sensitive to the prescription of land surface processes in coupled mesoscale models over the Indian monsoon region. Study results indicate: (i) Accurate representation of land surface processes in a mesoscale model leads to more realistic simulation of the timing, location, and amount of convection and mesoscale precipitation in numerical weather forecast models over the Indian monsoon region; (ii) Wetter antecedent land conditions lead to stronger monsoon depressions; (iii) land surface feedbacks in mesoscale models are sensitive to the convection parameterizations.

  19. Elemental geochemistry and Sr-Nd isotopic fingerprinting of sediments in monsoon dominated river systems along the west coast of India.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pradhan, S. U.; Zhang, J.; Baskaran, M. M.; Shirodkar, P.; Wu, Y.

    2014-12-01

    water (0.7160) values, suggesting dominant authigenic origin representing the isotopic signatures of the dissolved phase of these rivers. Among the two rivers studied, the NR seems to be dominated by carbonate weathering and whereas silicate weathering dominates the NT. The contrasting differences between these two river systems serve as model for other large and small Indian rivers.

  20. Operation of an integrated algae pond system for the treatment of municipal sewage: a South African case study.

    PubMed

    Mambo, Prudence M; Westensee, Dirk K; Render, David S; Cowan, A Keith

    2014-01-01

    Integrated algae pond systems (IAPS) combine the use of anaerobic and aerobic bioprocesses to effect sewage treatment. In the present work, the performance of IAPS was evaluated to determine the efficiency of this technology for treatment of municipal sewage under South African conditions. Composite samples were analysed over an 8 month period before and after tertiary treatment. Spectrophotometric assays indicated that the treated water from this IAPS was compliant with the discharge limits for phosphate-P, ammonium-N and nitrate/nitrite-N, and mean values were: 5.3, 2.9 and 12.4 mg L(-1), respectively. Chemical oxygen demand (COD), however, fluctuated significantly and was dependent on full function of the IAPS. Mean COD of the final treated water was 72.2 mg L(-1). Although these results suggest that the treated water discharged from this IAPS operating under South African conditions meets the standard for discharge, mean total suspended solids (TSS) was routinely above the limit at 34.5 ± 13 mg L(-1) and faecal coliforms were higher than expected. Tertiary treatment using a maturation pond series (MPS), slow sand filtration (SSF), or a controlled rock filter (CRF) ensured that the final treated water from the IAPS was of a quality suitable for discharge to the environment with CRF > SSF > MPS.

  1. Operation of an integrated algae pond system for the treatment of municipal sewage: a South African case study.

    PubMed

    Mambo, Prudence M; Westensee, Dirk K; Render, David S; Cowan, A Keith

    2014-01-01

    Integrated algae pond systems (IAPS) combine the use of anaerobic and aerobic bioprocesses to effect sewage treatment. In the present work, the performance of IAPS was evaluated to determine the efficiency of this technology for treatment of municipal sewage under South African conditions. Composite samples were analysed over an 8 month period before and after tertiary treatment. Spectrophotometric assays indicated that the treated water from this IAPS was compliant with the discharge limits for phosphate-P, ammonium-N and nitrate/nitrite-N, and mean values were: 5.3, 2.9 and 12.4 mg L(-1), respectively. Chemical oxygen demand (COD), however, fluctuated significantly and was dependent on full function of the IAPS. Mean COD of the final treated water was 72.2 mg L(-1). Although these results suggest that the treated water discharged from this IAPS operating under South African conditions meets the standard for discharge, mean total suspended solids (TSS) was routinely above the limit at 34.5 ± 13 mg L(-1) and faecal coliforms were higher than expected. Tertiary treatment using a maturation pond series (MPS), slow sand filtration (SSF), or a controlled rock filter (CRF) ensured that the final treated water from the IAPS was of a quality suitable for discharge to the environment with CRF > SSF > MPS. PMID:24960021

  2. Pre-monsoon/monsoon thunderstorm characteristics over Pune—An investigation using Doppler Sodar observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murthy, B. S.; Latha, R.; Sreeja, P.; Kalapureddy, M. C. R.; Dharmaraj, T.; Waghmare, R. T.

    2011-10-01

    Doppler sodar observations of three dimensional (3D) wind fields and thermal structure of convective boundary layer (CBL) on a few thunderstorm days of 2009 during pre-monsoon (May and June; June due to delayed arrival of monsoon over Pune) and monsoon (July and August) are analyzed. They reveal the typical signatures of wind fields for the late afternoon thunderstorm (TS) such as deceleration of winds with or without change in direction leading to convergence a few minutes (˜15-30 min) prior to the onset of TS. Pre-monsoon TS are characterized by broad updrafts and narrow downdrafts in CBL in contrast to the narrow updrafts and broad downdrafts of a normal day (i.e. No-TS day). Mean vertical velocity averaged over CBL period shows net updraft on TS days and net downdraft on No-TS day for the pre-monsoon cases. Similarly calm winds are observed in the CBL on TS-days that support enhanced free convection. During the monsoon period updrafts are observed on both TS and No-TS days with higher values on TS days in comparison, due to the dominance of large-scale monsoon flow over local convection. Relatively higher turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) in CBL is observed on all TS days. Analysis shows that TKE maximum for the day is attained about 1.5-2.0 h prior to the onset of afternoon TS. Mixed-layer depth, determined from TKE profile, is higher than lifting condensation level (LCL) on TS days in May and June indicating saturation of air parcels in updrafts.

  3. Status of NCEP CFS vis-a-vis IPCC AR4 models for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Dhakate, Ashish; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Saha, Subodh K.

    2013-01-01

    National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System (CFS) is selected to play a lead role for monsoon research (seasonal prediction, extended range prediction, climate prediction, etc.) in the ambitious Monsoon Mission project of Government of India. Thus, as a prerequisite, a detail analysis for the performance of NCEP CFS vis-a-vis IPCC AR4 models for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is attempted. It is found that the mean monsoon simulations by CFS in its long run are at par with the IPCC models. The spatial distribution of rainfall in the realm of Indian subcontinent augurs the better results for CFS as compared with the IPCC models. The major drawback of CFS is the bifurcation of rain types; it shows almost 80-90 % rain as convective, contrary to the observation where it is only 50-65 %; however, the same lacuna creeps in other models of IPCC as well. The only respite is that it realistically simulates the proper ratio of convective and stratiform rain over central and southern part of India. In case of local air-sea interaction, it outperforms other models. However, for monsoon teleconnections, it competes with the better models of the IPCC. This study gives us the confidence that CFS can be very well utilized for monsoon studies and can be safely used for the future development for reliable prediction system of ISM.

  4. The effect of vegetation biophysical processes (VBP) on the American monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Y.; de Sales, F.; Mechoso, C. R.; Vasic, R.; Nobre, C.

    2006-12-01

    Although the role of individual land surface characteristics, such as soil moisture and albedo, in the climate system has been widely recognized, the effects of vegetation biophysical processes (VBP) are not yet fully understood. The Simplified Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB) has been coupled to the atmospheric general circulation models to investigate the role and mechanism of land/American monsoon interactions. Two numerical experiments have been designed for this study. In the first experiment, two land surface parameterizations in the UCLA GCM were tested: one used the standard version of the UCLA GCM land surface parameterization (CNTL), which used climatological surface albedo and specified ground wetness, i.e. no land/atmosphere interaction was allowed; another used SSiB with an explicit representation of VBP. The UCLA/SSiB showed a substantial impact on the American monsoon. The systematic bias in the American monsoon precipitation in the CNTL simulation was reduced. The annual mean precipitation bias was reduced by 50%. The improvement was consistent for all monsoon months. Furthermore, the interaction between VBP and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was evident. To further distinguish the VBP effect from the soil moisture effect, the second experiment was designed. In this experiment, two land surface parameterizations were tested: one was a surface model with two-soil layers (SOIL), i.e., soil moisture interacted with atmosphere, with no explicit vegetation parameterizations and another was SSiB. The results showed that, during the austral summer, consideration of explicit vegetation processes did not alter the monthly mean precipitation at the planetary scale. However, at continental scales, GCM/SSiB produces a more successful simulation of South American monsoon system (SAMS) than GCM/Soil. The improvement was particularly clear in reference to the seasonal southward displacement of precipitation during the onset of SAMS and its northward merging

  5. Do floral syndromes predict specialization in plant pollination systems? An experimental test in an "ornithophilous" African Protea.

    PubMed

    Hargreaves, Anna L; Johnson, Steven D; Nol, Erica

    2004-07-01

    We investigated whether the "ornithophilous" floral syndrome exhibited in an African sugarbush, Protea roupelliae (Proteaceae), reflects ecological specialization for bird-pollination. A breeding system experiment established that the species is self-compatible, but dependent on visits by pollinators for seed set. The cup-shaped inflorescences were visited by a wide range of insect and bird species; however inflorescences from which birds, but not insects, were excluded by wire cages set few seeds relative to open-pollinated controls. One species, the malachite sunbird (Nectarinia famosa), accounted for more than 80% of all birds captured in P. roupelliae stands and carried the largest protea pollen loads. A single visit by this sunbird species was enough to increase seed set considerably over unvisited, bagged inflorescences. Our results show that P. roupelliae is largely dependent on birds for pollination, and thus confirm the utility of floral syndromes for generating hypotheses about the ecology of pollination systems.

  6. Hyperpulsatile pressure, systemic inflammation and cardiac stress are associated with cardiac wall remodeling in an African male cohort: the SABPA study.

    PubMed

    van Vuren, Esmé Jansen; Malan, Leoné; von Känel, Roland; Cockeran, Marike; Malan, Nicolaas T

    2016-09-01

    Inflammation may contribute to an increase in cardiac wall stress through pathways related to cardiac remodeling. Cardiac remodeling is characterized by myocyte hypertrophy, myocyte death and modifications of the extracellular matrix. We sought to explore associations among cardiac remodeling, inflammation and myocardial cell injury in a bi-ethnic cohort of South African men and women. We included 165 men (76 African and 89 Caucasian) and 174 women (80 African and 94 Caucasian) between 20 and 65 years of age. Inflammatory markers used were C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), whereas troponin T (Trop T) and the N-terminal of pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) were used as cardiac markers. The frequency of ischemic events (ST segment depression) and left ventricular strain (left ventricular hypertrophy: LVH) were monitored by a 24-h recording of ambulatory blood pressure (BP), ECG and 12-lead standard ECG. Hypertension diagnosed with ambulatory monitoring was more frequent in Africans (53.85 vs. 24.59%; P<0.001), as was the number of ischemic events (6±15 (1; 5) vs. 3±6 (0; 3)). Inflammatory markers (CRP, IL-6 and TNF-α) and the degree of LVH were all significantly higher in Africans (P<0.05). BP was associated (P<0.05) with Trop T in men across ethnic groups. In African men, cardiac stress (NT-proBNP) was associated with TNF-alpha (P<0.001), Trop T (P<0.001) and pulse pressure (P=0.048; adjusted R(2)=0.45). The susceptibility for cardiac wall remodeling appears to increase with hyperpulsatile pressure, low-grade systemic inflammation and ventricular stress, and may lead to the development of future cardiovascular events in African men. PMID:27169396

  7. Analysis of Vegetation Index Variations and the Asian Monsoon Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, Sunhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Gerasimov, Irina

    2012-01-01

    Vegetation growth depends on local climate. Significant anthropogenic land cover and land use change activities over Asia have changed vegetation distribution as well. On the other hand, vegetation is one of the important land surface variables that influence the Asian Monsoon variability through controlling atmospheric energy and water vapor conditions. In this presentation, the mean and variations of vegetation index of last decade at regional scale resolution (5km and higher) from MODIS have been analyzed. Results indicate that the vegetation index has been reduced significantly during last decade over fast urbanization areas in east China, such as Yangtze River Delta, where local surface temperatures were increased significantly in term of urban heat Island. The relationship between vegetation Index and climate (surface temperature, precipitation) over a grassland in northern Asia and over a woody savannas in southeast Asia are studied. In supporting Monsoon Asian Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS) program, the data in this study have been integrated into Giovanni, the online visualization and analysis system at NASA GES DISC. Most images in this presentation are generated from Giovanni system.

  8. The global monsoon definition using the difference of local minimum and maximum pentad precipitation rates associated with cross-equatorial flow reversal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Weihong; Jiang, Ning

    2016-05-01

    Since most previous attempts to establish monsoon indices have been limited to specific regions, they have lacked the applicability to universally describe the global monsoon domain. In this paper, we first review the history of global monsoon study and then identify the climatology of global precipitation associated with major systems of the atmospheric general circulation. A new index, based on the annual and semiannual harmonic precipitation rate difference between two local calendar maximal and minimal precipitation pentads, is used to identify the global monsoon domain focusing on where experienced and what caused the climatic dry-wet alteration. The global monsoon domain is defined by the regions where two pentad-mean precipitation difference exceeds 4 mm ṡday-1, which is also influenced by the low-level prevailing wind reversal associated with the cross-equatorial flow. This definition not only confirmed previous results of the classical global monsoon domain from the tropical Africa to Asia-Australia and non-classical monsoon region in the tropical America but also solved an issue of missing local summer monsoon spots.

  9. African Easterly Waves and Superparameterization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCrary, Rachel; Randall, David; Stan, Cristiana

    2013-04-01

    This study examines the dynamics of African easterly wave (AEW) in the Superparameterized Community Climate System Model (SP-CCSM). Conventional general circulation models (GCMs) have difficulty representing AEW dynamics over West Africa. One reason is that the coarse resolution of these models limits their ability to represent the multi-scale interactions between the large-scale dynamics and individual convective systems, which are important for the origin and development of AEWs. The SP-CCSM has been designed to better simulate the interactions between small-scale circulations and large-scale dynamics, by replacing the conventional parameterizations with a 2D cloud resolving model embedded within each GCM grid column. With this approach we are able to capture the interactions between clouds and the global circulation of the atmosphere. The goal of our work is to improve our understanding of the multi-scale interactions that occur between AEWs and convection over West Africa. The implementation of the superparameterization into the CCSM improves the overall representation of monsoon precipitation over West Africa. Most notably, the region of maximum precipitation is shifted from the Gulf of Guinea in CCSM (not realistic), to over the continent in SP-CCSM. The biases found in precipitation for both models are thought to be linked to anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea and a misrepresentation of the equatorial Atlantic cold tongue (a common problem for coupled GCMs). AEWs and their relationship with convection are also improved in the SP-CCSM. In the standard model, little to no easterly wave activity is found over West Africa, and the relationship with convection is tenuous at best. SP-CCSM on the other hand produces strong AEWs over the region that exhibit similar horizontal and vertical structures to observations. The simulated waves are also shown to be strongly coupled to convection, and results suggest that barotropic and baroclinic

  10. The Lake Albert Rift (uganda, East African Rift System): Deformation, Basin and Relief Evolution Since 17 Ma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brendan, Simon; François, Guillocheau; Cécile, Robin; Olivier, Dauteuil; Thierry, Nalpas; Martin, Pickford; Brigitte, Senut; Philippe, Lays; Philippe, Bourges; Martine, Bez

    2016-04-01

    .5 Ma: Rift stage 1 (subsidence rate: > 500m/Ma up to 600-800 m/Ma; sedimentation rate: 2.4 km3/Ma) - Rifting climax; - 2.5-0.4 Ma: uplift of the Ruwenzori Mountains and shifting from an alluvial system to a network of bedrock river incision - Rift Stage 2 (subsidence rate: 450 to 250 m/Ma; sedimentation rate: 1.5 km3/Ma); - 0.4-0 Ma: long wavelength downwarping of the Tanzanian Craton, initiation of the Lake Victoria trough, drainage network inversion and uplift of the present-day Ugandan escarpment (normal faulting motion of the border faults) with formation of perched valleys associated to the Lower Pleistocene (2.5-0.4 Ma) rivers network. At larger scale, comparison of the Lake Albert Rift evolution with the data available in the basins of both eastern and western branches of the East African Rift System shows that most of the sedimentary basins experienced the same geometrical evolution from large basins with limited fault controls during Late Miocene to narrow true rift in Late Pleistocene (e.g. Northern and Central Kenyan Basins), in agreement with the volcanism distribution, large (width >100 km) during the Miocene times, narrower (width x10 km) from Late Pliocene to Pleistocene times and today limited to narrow rifts.

  11. Observed and Forecasted Intraseasonal Activity of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over India During 2010, 2011 and 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Rathore, L. S.; Kumar, Arun

    2013-12-01

    The monsoon seasons of 2010 and 2011, with almost identical seasonal total rainfall over India from June to September, are associated with slightly different patterns of intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations. Similarly, the year 2012, with relatively less rainfall compared to 2010 and 2011, also witnessed different intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations, leading to drought-like situations over some parts of the country. The present article discusses the forecasting aspect of monsoon activity over India during these 3 years on an extended range time scale (up to 3 weeks) by using the multimodel ensemble (MME), based on operational coupled model outputs from the ECMWF monthly forecasting system and the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFS). The average correlation coefficient (CC) of weekly observed all-India rainfall (AIR) and the corresponding MME forecast AIR is found to be significant, above the 98 % level up to 2 weeks (up to 18 days) with a slight positive CC for the week 3 (days 19-25) forecast. However, like the variation of observed intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations during 2010, 2011 and 2012 monsoon seasons, the MME forecast skills of weekly AIR are also found to be different from one another, with the 2012 monsoon season indicating significant CC (above 99 % level) up to week 2 (12-18 days), and also a comparatively higher CC (0.45) during the week 3 forecast (days 19-25). The average CC between observed and forecasted weekly AIR rainfall over four homogeneous regions of India is found to be the lowest over the southern peninsula of India (SPI), and northeast India (NEI) is found to be significant only for the week 1 (days 5-11) forecast. However, the CC is found to be significant over northwest India (NWI) and central India (CEI), at least above the 90 % level up to 18 days, with NWI having slightly better skill compared to the CEI. For the individual monsoon seasons of 2010, 2011 and 2012, there is some variation in CC and other skill scores over the four

  12. Himalayan River Terraces as A Landscape Response to Quaternary Summer Monsoon Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonell, T. N.; Clift, P. D.

    2013-12-01

    In order to interpret marine sedimentary archives as records of the erosional response to Asian monsoon variability, we must first recognize how transport processes affect the storage and release of sediment to the ocean. River terraces, such as found in the Greater Himalaya, provide a pivotal role in the source-to-sink story, because this is where sediment storage occurs and is likely modulated. We investigate the role that climate plays in controlling erosion and sediment flux to the Indus delta and fan by looking at the Indus River system, which is dominated by the strong forcing of the Asian monsoon, as well as winter Westerly winds. Paleoceanographic, speleothem, and lacustrine records indicate that summer monsoon intensity was strong from 29 to 37 ka, decreased after that time until ~16 ka, reached maximum intensity from 8 to 10 ka, and then weakened until ~3 ka. Some lacustrine records, however, indicate a more complex pattern of monsoon variability in the Greater Himalaya, which contrasts with monsoonal forcing in central India. This disagreement suggests that floodplains of major river systems may not experience the same climatic conditions as their mountain sources, resulting in contrasting landscape responses to climate change. High altitude river valleys, at least north ofthe Greater Himalaya, appear to be sensitive to monsoon strength because they lie on the periphery of the present rainfall maximum, in the Himalayan rain shadow. These steep river valleys may be affected by landslide damming during periods of increase moisture transport and strong monsoonal precipitation, where damming provides sediment storage through valley-filling and later sediment release through gradual incision or dam-bursting. The Zanskar River, a major tributary to the upper Indus River, provides a record of the erosional response of mountain river valleys to these extreme phases through river terracing. New OSL ages from alluvial terraces indicate reworking of sediment and

  13. Model Interpretation of Climate Signals: Application to the Asian Monsoon Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2002-01-01

    This is an invited review paper intended to be published as a Chapter in a book entitled "The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes and Teleconnections" Cambridge University Press. The author begins with an introduction followed by a primer of climate models, including a description of various modeling strategies and methodologies used for climate diagnostics and predictability studies. Results from the CLIVAR Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (MMIP) were used to illustrate the application of the strategies to modeling the Asian monsoon. It is shown that state-of-the art atmospheric GCMs have reasonable capability in simulating the seasonal mean large scale monsoon circulation, and response to El Nino. However, most models fail to capture the climatological as well as interannual anomalies of regional scale features of the Asian monsoon. These include in general over-estimating the intensity and/or misplacing the locations of the monsoon convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the zones of heavy rainfall near steep topography of the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, and Indo-China and the Philippines. The intensity of convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean is generally weaker in models compared to observations. Most important, an endemic problem in all models is the weakness and the lack of definition of the Mei-yu rainbelt of the East Asia, in particular the part of the Mei-yu rainbelt over the East China Sea and southern Japan are under-represented. All models seem to possess certain amount of intraseasonal variability, but the monsoon transitions, such as the onset and breaks are less defined compared with the observed. Evidences are provided that a better simulation of the annual cycle and intraseasonal variability is a pre-requisite for better simulation and better prediction of interannual anomalies.

  14. Modern monsoon extent and moisture dynamics over eastern Asian: evidence from precipitation and water vapor isotopes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhongfang; Kei, Yoshimura; Bowen, Gabriel J.; Tian, Lide

    2013-04-01

    The climate of eastern Asia is dominated by the Asia monsoon (AM) system, which controls seasonal patterns of moisture sources and transport to the region. Measurements of water isotopes can provide insight into monsoon extent and moisture dynamics. Here we present an analysis of a spatially dense network of precipitation isotopes (d18O and dD) from a ground-based network and water vapor dD retrieved from satellite measurements. The results show that isotopic seasonality for both precipitation and water vapor exhibits two distinctly different, spatially coherent modes. Summer-season isotope ratios are relatively low to the south of ~35°N and high to the north, with the transition between these zones reflecting the approximate northward extent of Asia summer monsoon influence. In the southern monsoon domain, low isotope values with relatively low precipitation d-excess (9.4‰ in SE China) in summer appear not to reflect the amount effect, but rather the dominance of monsoon moisture with long-distance transport from the Indian and southern Pacific oceans and continental convective recycling (contribute to about 30-48% moisture in SE China). In contrast, other seasons are dominated by dry continental masses, characterized by high d-excess (12.7‰) and isotope values. In northern China, a region that is beyond extent of monsoon, the moisture is derived overwhelmingly from the dry continental air masses. Here, water isotope ratios exhibit stronger temperature dependence, with enriched values in summer and depleted values in other seasons. The relatively low precipitation d-excess (<8‰) in northern China and inverse spatial isotope patterns between precipitation and water vapor across China during the summer further suggest that re-evaporation of falling raindrops is a key driver of water isotope behavior in northern China.

  15. Understanding Dominant Tracks of Moisture for the North American Monsoon Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jana, S.; Rajagopalan, B.; Ray, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    Summer monsoon rains contribute more than half of the total annual rainfall in the semi-arid region of Southwest United States, also providing important input to river systems like the Colorado River. The North American Monsoon region or Southwest United States experiences great climatic variability on a range of spatial and temporal scales. This region has also been experiencing significant climate and hydroclimate changes over the last few years. Understanding the interannual variability of moisture delivery in this region will help in natural resources management such as water resources, ecology, etc.. In this study, we investigate the major sources of moisture and their interannual variability during the monsoon season. To this end we selected eight locations in the region from the states of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah to cover the monsoon region of U.S and generated backward moisture trajectories for each wet day during the monsoon season (Jun-Sep) over the historical period 1964-2013, using the HYSPLIT model developed by NOAA. The tracks show clear source preferences. Gulf of Mexico is the dominant source for south eastern part of the domain, Gulf of California is dominant for the south western domain, a combination of these for regions in between and the Pacific provides the source for northern part of the domain. Decreasing trends in the frequency of the dominant moisture source events corresponds well with the decreasing trends in the rainfall over the domain. The frequencies when correlated with large scale climate variables indicate coherent patterns in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. Furthermore, the population means for each source during El Nino and La Nina years were found to be significantly different. Since the moisture from the dominant sources is also responsible for causing extreme rainfall in this region, these trajectories will provide potential predictability of monsoon rainfall and extremes.

  16. Commonalities of carbon dioxide exchange in semiarid regions with monsoon and Mediterranean climates

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Semiarid ecosystems with monsoon climates receive precipitation during the warm season while Mediterranean systems are characteristically wet in the cool season and dry in the summer. Comparing biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange across these two climate regimes can yield information about the int...

  17. The climatology of East Asian winter monsoon and cold surges from 1979--1995 NCEP/NCAR reanalyses

    SciTech Connect

    Yi Zhang; Sperber, K.; Boyle, J.

    1996-04-01

    The East Asian winter monsoon, which is associated with the Siberian high and active cold surges, is one of the most energetic monsoon circulation systems. The dramatic shift of northeasterlies and the outbreak of cold surges dominate the winter weather and local climate in the East Asian region, and may exert a strong impact on the extratropical and tropical planetary-scale circulations and influence the SSTs in the tropical western Pacific. General characteristics of the winter monsoon and cold surges and their possible link with tropical disturbances are revealed in many observational studies. Little attention has been given to the climatological aspects of the winter monsoon and cold surges. The purpose of this study is to compile and document the East Asian mean winter circulation, and present the climatology of cold surges and the Siberian high based on the 1979--1995 NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Of particular interest is the interannual variation of winter monsoon circulation and cold surge events. Given that the cold surge activity and the Indonesian convection are much reduced during the 1982--83 period, one of the goals is to determine whether there exists a statistically significant relationship between ENSO and the interannual variation of winter monsoon and cold surges.

  18. Late Quaternary East Asian monsoon evolution deduced from elemental XRF scanning data in the western South China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Z.; Liu, Z.; Li, J.; Xie, X.

    2010-12-01

    The East Asian monsoon system dominates seasonal patterns of precipitation and runoff and causes monsoon-induced upwelling off middle Vietnam in the western South China Sea. Our investigation is to decipher the evolution of the East Asian monsoon variations during late Quaternary by analyzing high-resolution elemental XRF scanning data from Core MD05-2899 (13°47.66'N, 112°10.89'E, water depth 2393 m), which is located in the western South China Sea upwelling region. Oxygen isotope results indicate that the 38.86 m long core spans over the last 533 ka. The elemental XRF scanning data present clear glacial-interglacial variations for most of elements. We choose K, Ti, and Zr as proxies of terrigenous input, and Ca and Ba as indicators of nutrient and sea surface productivity. Generally, coherent downcore variations in K/Ti, Zr/Ti, Ba/Ti and Ca/Ti ratios indicate obvious glacial-interglacial cyclicity. The highest element ratios occur during interglacial maxima, indicating that both terrigenous input and sea surface productivity increased when the enhanced East Asia summer monsoon causes intensified precipitation, runoff, and upwelling. In contrast, during the glacials the element ratios decreased when the East Asian summer monsoon was weakened. In addition, the Ba/Ti ratio along with the carbonate mass accumulation rate present much higher values in MIS 3 and 9, reflecting the stronger East Asian summer monsoon activity.

  19. The Misnomer of East Asia Summer Monsoon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode

    2004-01-01

    The terminology East Asian summer monsoon is used to refer to the heavy rainfall in southeast China including the Yangtze River Valley starting in May and ending in August (e.g., Chen and Chang 1980, Tao and Chen 1987, Ding 1992, Chang et al. 2000a.) This rainfall region is associated with the Mei-Yu front, which extends to Japan and its neighborhood and is called Baiu there. The Mei-Yu front becomes prominent in May and has a slow northward movement. From May to July the elongated rain belt moves from the southeast coast of China to the Yangtze River Valley. The rain belt extends north-east-ward to south of Japan in May and later covers Korea also. The purpose of this note is to point out that the terminology of East Asian summer monsoon is a misnomer to refer to the portion of this rainbelt residing over East Asia, in the sense that it is not a monsoon.

  20. African humid periods triggered the reactivation of a large river system in Western Sahara

    PubMed Central

    Skonieczny, C.; Paillou, P.; Bory, A.; Bayon, G.; Biscara, L.; Crosta, X.; Eynaud, F.; Malaizé, B.; Revel, M.; Aleman, N.; Barusseau, J. -P.; Vernet, R.; Lopez, S.; Grousset, F.

    2015-01-01

    The Sahara experienced several humid episodes during the late Quaternary, associated with the development of vast fluvial networks and enhanced freshwater delivery to the surrounding ocean margins. In particular, marine sediment records off Western Sahara indicate deposition of river-borne material at those times, implying sustained fluvial discharges along the West African margin. Today, however, no major river exists in this area; therefore, the origin of these sediments remains unclear. Here, using orbital radar satellite imagery, we present geomorphological data that reveal the existence of a large buried paleodrainage network on the Mauritanian coast. On the basis of evidence from the literature, we propose that reactivation of this major paleoriver during past humid periods contributed to the delivery of sediments to the Tropical Atlantic margin. This finding provides new insights for the interpretation of terrigenous sediment records off Western Africa, with important implications for our understanding of the paleohydrological history of the Sahara. PMID:26556052

  1. Asian monsoon extremes and humanity's response over the past millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buckley, B. M.; Lieberman, V. B.; Zottoli, B.

    2012-12-01

    The first decade of the 21st century has seen significant development in the production of paleo proxies for the Asian monsoon, exemplified by the Monsoon Asian Drought Atlas that was comprised of more than 300 tree ring chronologies. Noteworthy among them is the Vietnamese cypress tree-ring record which reveals that the two worst droughts of the past 7 centuries, each more than a decade in length, coincided with the demise of the Khmer civilization at Angkor in the early 15th century CE. The 18th century was nearly as tumultuous a period across Southeast Asia, where several polities fell against a backdrop of epic decadal-scale droughts. At this time all of the region's charter states saw rapid realignment in the face of drought, famine, disease and a raft of related and unrelated social issues. Several other droughts, some more extreme but of lesser duration, punctuate the past millennium, but appear to have had little societal impact. Historical documentation is being used not only to provide corroborative evidence of tree-ring reconstructed climate extremes, but to attempt to understand the dynamics of the coupled human-natural systems involved, and to define what kinds of thresholds need to be reached before societies respond. This paleo perspective can assist our analyses of the role of climate extremes in the collapse or disruption of regional societies, a subject of increasing concern given the uncertainties surrounding projections for future climate across the highly populated areas of Asia.

  2. The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian Monsoon winds.

    PubMed

    Betzler, Christian; Eberli, Gregor P; Kroon, Dick; Wright, James D; Swart, Peter K; Nath, Bejugam Nagender; Alvarez-Zarikian, Carlos A; Alonso-García, Montserrat; Bialik, Or M; Blättler, Clara L; Guo, Junhua Adam; Haffen, Sébastien; Horozal, Senay; Inoue, Mayuri; Jovane, Luigi; Lanci, Luca; Laya, Juan Carlos; Mee, Anna Ling Hui; Lüdmann, Thomas; Nakakuni, Masatoshi; Niino, Kaoru; Petruny, Loren M; Pratiwi, Santi D; Reijmer, John J G; Reolid, Jesús; Slagle, Angela L; Sloss, Craig R; Su, Xiang; Yao, Zhengquan; Young, Jeremy R

    2016-07-20

    The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most intense climatic elements yet its initiation and variations are not well established. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents in IODP cores from the Maldives yields an age of 12. 9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment's content of particulate organic matter. A weaker 'proto-monsoon' existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system.

  3. Forecasting of monsoon heavy rains: challenges in NWP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Kuldeep; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Iyengar, Gopal; Bhatla, R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Last decade has seen a tremendous improvement in the forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This is attributed to increased sophistication in NWP models, which resolve complex physical processes, advanced data assimilation, increased grid resolution and satellite observations. However, prediction of heavy rains is still a challenge since the models exhibit large error in amounts as well as spatial and temporal distribution. Two state-of-art NWP models have been investigated over the Indian monsoon region to assess their ability in predicting the heavy rainfall events. The unified model operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCUM) and the unified model operational at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator -- Global (ACCESS-G)) are used in this study. The recent (JJAS 2015) Indian monsoon season witnessed 6 depressions and 2 cyclonic storms which resulted in heavy rains and flooding. The CRA method of verification allows the decomposition of forecast errors in terms of error in the rainfall volume, pattern and location. The case by case study using CRA technique shows that contribution to the rainfall errors come from pattern and displacement is large while contribution due to error in predicted rainfall volume is least.

  4. The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian Monsoon winds.

    PubMed

    Betzler, Christian; Eberli, Gregor P; Kroon, Dick; Wright, James D; Swart, Peter K; Nath, Bejugam Nagender; Alvarez-Zarikian, Carlos A; Alonso-García, Montserrat; Bialik, Or M; Blättler, Clara L; Guo, Junhua Adam; Haffen, Sébastien; Horozal, Senay; Inoue, Mayuri; Jovane, Luigi; Lanci, Luca; Laya, Juan Carlos; Mee, Anna Ling Hui; Lüdmann, Thomas; Nakakuni, Masatoshi; Niino, Kaoru; Petruny, Loren M; Pratiwi, Santi D; Reijmer, John J G; Reolid, Jesús; Slagle, Angela L; Sloss, Craig R; Su, Xiang; Yao, Zhengquan; Young, Jeremy R

    2016-01-01

    The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most intense climatic elements yet its initiation and variations are not well established. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents in IODP cores from the Maldives yields an age of 12. 9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment's content of particulate organic matter. A weaker 'proto-monsoon' existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system. PMID:27436574

  5. A Comparative Analysis Regarding Factors Related to 13- to 18-Year-Old African American Male Adolescents in Special Education and the Justice System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phipps, Jonathan Lanier

    2013-01-01

    This study was focused on the identification of selected risk factors seemingly present among African American male adolescents 13 to 18 years old who were participants in special education programs at their schools. Many of these male adolescents were also found to participate in the juvenile justice system under what was characterized as…

  6. Feasibility of a web-based training system for peer community health advisors in cancer early detection among african americans.

    PubMed

    Santos, Sherie Lou Z; Tagai, Erin K; Wang, Min Qi; Scheirer, Mary Ann; Slade, Jimmie L; Holt, Cheryl L

    2014-12-01

    We describe the feasibility of a Web-based portal for training peer community health advisors (CHAs). We conducted a community-based implementation trial in African American churches between 2012 and 2014. The Web-based portal allows CHAs to log in and view 13 training videos, preparing them to deliver 3 cancer early detection workshops in their churches. Of 8 churches, 6 completed the training, each certifying 2 CHAs. These CHAs took an average of 26 days to complete the training, requiring little technical assistance. Additional technical assistance was required to implement the workshops. The Web-based system appears to be a feasible method for training lay individuals for the CHA role and has implications for increasing the reach of evidence-based interventions. PMID:25320894

  7. Feasibility of a web-based training system for peer community health advisors in cancer early detection among african americans.

    PubMed

    Santos, Sherie Lou Z; Tagai, Erin K; Wang, Min Qi; Scheirer, Mary Ann; Slade, Jimmie L; Holt, Cheryl L

    2014-12-01

    We describe the feasibility of a Web-based portal for training peer community health advisors (CHAs). We conducted a community-based implementation trial in African American churches between 2012 and 2014. The Web-based portal allows CHAs to log in and view 13 training videos, preparing them to deliver 3 cancer early detection workshops in their churches. Of 8 churches, 6 completed the training, each certifying 2 CHAs. These CHAs took an average of 26 days to complete the training, requiring little technical assistance. Additional technical assistance was required to implement the workshops. The Web-based system appears to be a feasible method for training lay individuals for the CHA role and has implications for increasing the reach of evidence-based interventions.

  8. Pacific freshening drives Pliocene cooling and Asian monsoon intensification.

    PubMed

    Nie, Junsheng; Stevens, Thomas; Song, Yougui; King, John W; Zhang, Rui; Ji, Shunchuan; Gong, Lisha; Cares, Danielle

    2014-01-01

    The monsoon is a fundamental component of Earth's climate. The Pliocene warm period is characterized by long-term global cooling yet concurrent monsoon dynamics are poorly known. Here we present the first fully quantified and calibrated reconstructions of separate Pliocene air temperature and East Asian summer monsoon precipitation histories on the Chinese Loess Plateau through joint analysis of loess/red clay magnetic parameters with different sensitivities to air temperature and precipitation. East Asian summer monsoon precipitation shows an intensified trend, paradoxically at the same time that climate cooled. We propose a hitherto unrecognized feedback where persistently intensified East Asian summer monsoon during the late Pliocene, triggered by the gradual closure of the Panama Seaway, reinforced late Pliocene Pacific freshening, sea-ice development and ice volume increase, culminating in initiation of the extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciations of the Quaternary Ice Age. This feedback mechanism represents a fundamental reinterpretation of the origin of the Quaternary glaciations and the impact of the monsoon.

  9. Littoral sedimentation of rift lakes: an illustrated overview from the modern to Pliocene Lake Turkana (East African Rift System, Kenya)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuster, Mathieu; Nutz, Alexis

    2015-04-01

    Existing depositional models for rift lakes can be summarized as clastics transported by axial and lateral rivers, then distributed by fan-deltas and/or deltas into a standing water body which is dominated by settling of fine particles, and experiencing occasional coarser underflows. Even if known from paleolakes and modern lakes, reworking of clastics by alongshore drift, waves and storms are rarely considered in depositional models. However, if we consider the lake Turkana Basin (East African Rift System, Kenya) it is obvious that this vision is incomplete. Three representative time slices are considered here: the modern Lake Turkana, the Megalake Turkana which developed thanks to the African Humid Period (Holocene), and the Plio-Pleistocene highstand episodes of paleolake Turkana (Nachukui, Shungura and Koobi Fora Formations, Omo Group). First, remarkable clastic morphosedimentary structures such as beach ridges, spits, washover fans, lagoons, or wave-dominated deltas are very well developed along the shoreline of modern lake Turkana, suggesting strong hydrodynamics responsible for a major reworking of the fluvial-derived clastics all along the littoral zone (longshore and cross-shore transport) of the lake. Similarly, past hydrodynamics are recorded from prominent raised beach ridges and spits, well-preserved all around the lake, above its present water-level (~360 m asl) and up to ~455 m. These large-scale clastic morphosedimentary structures also record the maximum extent of Megalake Turkana during the African Humid Period, as well as its subsequent regression forced by the end of the Holocene climatic optimum. Several hundreds of meters of fluvial-deltaic-lacustrine deposits spanning the Pliocene-Pleistocene are exposed in the Turkana basin thanks to tectonic faulting. These deposits are world famous for their paleontological and archeological content that documents the very early story of Mankind. They also preserve several paleolake highstand episodes with

  10. Miocene Onset of Extension in the Turkana Depression, Kenya: Implications for the Geodynamic Evolution of the East African Rift System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boone, S.; Gleadow, A. J. W.; Kohn, B. P.; Seiler, C.

    2015-12-01

    The Paleogene-Recent East African Rift System (EARS) is the foremost modern example of continental rifting, providing much of our understanding of the early stages of continental breakup. The EARS traverses two regions of crustal uplift, the Ethiopian and East African Domes, separated by the Turkana Depression. This wide region of subdued topography coincides with the NW-SE trend of the Jurassic-Paleogene Anza Rift. Opinions on the fundamental geodynamic driver for EARS rifting are divided, however, principally between models involving migrating plume(s) and a single elongated 'superplume'. While competing models have similar topographic outcomes, they predict different morphotectonic evolutions for the Turkana Depression. Models inferring southward plume-migration imply that the plume must have passed below the Turkana Depression during the Paleogene, in order to have migrated to the East African Dome by the Miocene. The possible temporal denudational response to such plume activity is testable using low temperature thermochronology. We present apatite fission track (AFT) and (U-Th)/He (AHe), and zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) data from the Lapurr Range, an uplifted Precambrian basement block in northern Turkana. Low radiation damage ZHe results displaying an age range of ~70-210 Ma, and combined with stratigraphic evidence, suggest ~4-6 km of Jurassic-Early Cretaceous denudation, probably associated with early Anza Rift tectonism. AFT ages of ~9-15 Ma imply subsequent burial beneath no more than ~4 km of overburden, thus preserving the Jurassic-Cretaceous ZHe ages. Together with AFT results, AHe data (~3-19 Ma) support ~2-4 km of Miocene-Pliocene uplift of the Lapurr Range in the footwall of the E-dipping Lapurr normal fault. Miocene AFT and AHe ages are interpreted to reflect the initiation of the EARS in the Turkana Depression. If extension is associated with plume activity, then upwelling in the Turkana region is unlikely to have started prior to the Miocene, much

  11. Tropospheric ozone variability during the monsoon season in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahamad, Fatimah; Latif, Mohd Talib

    2013-11-01

    Vertical ozone (O3) profiles obtained from ozonesondes launched at Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA), Malaysia were analyzed. Results of soundings between January to March 2011 and July to September 2011 are presented along with meteorological parameters (temperature and relative humidity (RH)). The overall O3 concentration range between the soundings made during the northeast monsoon (January - March) and the southwest monsoon (July - September) were not far from each other for altitudes below 8 km. However O3 variability is less pronounced between 2 km and 12 km during the southwest monsoon compared to the northeast monsoon season.

  12. Simulation of South-Asian Summer Monsoon in a GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ajayamohan, R. S.

    2007-10-01

    Major characteristics of Indian summer monsoon climate are analyzed using simulations from the upgraded version of Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The Indian monsoon has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and low-level and upper-level circulation patterns and compared with observations. In addition, the model's fidelity in simulating observed monsoon intraseasonal variability, interannual variability and teleconnection patterns is examined. The model is successful in simulating the major rainbelts over the Indian monsoon region. However, the model exhibits bias in simulating the precipitation bands over the South China Sea and the West Pacific region. Seasonal mean circulation patterns of low-level and upper-level winds are consistent with the model's precipitation pattern. Basic features like onset and peak phase of monsoon are realistically simulated. However, model simulation indicates an early withdrawal of monsoon. Northward propagation of rainbelts over the Indian continent is simulated fairly well, but the propagation is weak over the ocean. The model simulates the meridional dipole structure associated with the monsoon intraseasonal variability realistically. The model is unable to capture the observed interannual variability of monsoon and its teleconnection patterns. Estimate of potential predictability of the model reveals the dominating influence of internal variability over the Indian monsoon region.

  13. On Winning the Race for Predicting the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goswami, Bhupendra

    2013-03-01

    Skillful prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) one season in advance remains a ``grand challenge'' for the climate science community even though such forecasts have tremendous socio-economic implications over the region. Continued poor skill of the ocean-atmosphere coupled models in predicting ISMR is an enigma in the backdrop when these models have high skill in predicting seasonal mean rainfall over the rest of the Tropics. Here, I provide an overview of the fundamental processes responsible for limited skill of climate models and outline a framework for achieving the limit on potential predictability within a reasonable time frame. I also show that monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO) act as building blocks of the Asian monsoon and provide a bridge between the two problems, the potential predictability limit and the simulation of seasonal mean climate. The correlation between observed ISMR and ensemble mean of predicted ISMR (R) can still be used as a metric for forecast verification. Estimate of potential limit of predictability of Asian monsoon indicates that the highest achievable R is about 0.75. Improvements in climate models and data assimilation over the past one decade has slowly improved R from near zero a decade ago to about 0.4 currently. The race for achieving useful prediction can be won, if we can push this skill up to about 0.7. It requires focused research in improving simulations of MISO, monsoon seasonal cycle and ENSO-monsoon relationship by the climate models. In order to achieve this goal by 2015-16 timeframe, IITM is leading a Program called Monsoon Mission supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India (MoES). As improvement in skill of forecasts can come only if R & D is carried out on an operational modeling system, the Climate Forecast System of National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of NOAA, U.S.A has been selected as our base system. The Mission envisages building partnership between

  14. African Oral Tradition Literacy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Green, Doris

    1985-01-01

    Presents the basic principles of two systems for notating African music and dance: Labanotation (created to record and analyze movements) and Greenotation (created to notate musical instruments of Africa and to parallel Labanotation whereby both music and dance are incorporated into one integrated score). (KH)

  15. The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35° AGCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Stephanie J.; Levine, Richard C.; Turner, Andrew G.; Martin, Gill M.; Woolnough, Steven J.; Schiemann, Reinhard; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane

    2016-02-01

    The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world's population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200-40 km at the equator (N96-N512, 1.9°-0.35°). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution-related processes cause these changes, we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts.

  16. The East African Rift System and the impact of orographic changes on regional climate and the resulting aridification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sommerfeld, Anja; Prömmel, Kerstin; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2016-09-01

    Several proxy data indicate an aridification of the East African climate during the Neogene, which might be influenced by the orographic changes of the East African Rift System (EARS) induced by tectonic forcing during the last 20 million years. To investigate the impact of the orography and especially of the rifts, the regional climate model CCLM is used, covering the EARS with Lake Victoria in the centre of the model domain. CCLM is driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and applied with a double-nesting method resulting in a very high spatial resolution of 7 km. The resolution clearly shows the shoulders and rifts of the western and eastern branch of the EARS and the Rwenzoris within the western branch. To analyse the orographic influence on climate, a new technique of modifying the orography is used in this sensitivity study. The shoulders of the branches are lowered and the rifts are elevated, resulting in a smoothed orography structure with less altitude difference between the shoulders and rifts. The changes in 2 m-temperature are very local and associated with the changes in the orography. The vertically integrated moisture transport is characterised by less vortices, and its zonal component is increased over the branches. The resulting amount of precipitation is mainly decreased west of the western branch and increased in the rift of the western branch. In the eastern branch, however, the changes in the amount of precipitation are not significant. The changes in the precipitation and temperature patterns lead to a shift of biomes towards a vegetation coverage characterised by more humid conditions in the northern part of the model domain and more arid conditions in the South. Thus, the aridification found in the proxy data can be attributed to the orographic changes of the rifts only in the northern model domain.

  17. Monsoonal Variations of Supraglacial Lakes, Langtang Khola, Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miles, E. S.; Willis, I. C.; Arnold, N. S.; Pellicciotti, F.

    2013-12-01

    lakes can have a strong effect on the glacier's annual mass balance and the magnitude of these processes needs to be examined at the local and glacier scales. This research examines changes in supraglacial lake cover and structure across the 2013 monsoon season on two glaciers in the 400km2 Langtang Khola basin of Nepal. Photography of the glacier surface reveals a pattern of basin filling and overtopping preceding monsoonal precipitation inputs, likely driven by high-altitude snowmelt. During the monsoon, repeat structure-from-motion photogrammetry is combined with dGPS surveys to examine changes in lake and ice-cliff geometry, while pressure transducers are used to observe water levels and volumes for selected lakes. Finally, Landsat TM and ETM+ data have been analyzed to assess the seasonality and permanence of the larger lake features. Further work will address remaining challenges in modeling supraglacial lake development and glacier-scale effects including the role of porous flow in the debris layer, the structure and connectivity of the sub-, en-, and supra-glacial hydrologic system, and the initiation of lake drainage events.

  18. On the Feasibility of Tracking the Monsoon History by Using Ancient Wind Direction Records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallego, D.; Ribera, P.; Peña-Ortiz, C.; Vega, I.; Gómez, F. D. P.; Ordoñez-Perez, P.; Garcia-Hererra, R.

    2015-12-01

    In this work, we use old wind direction records to reconstruct indices for the West African Monsoon (WAM) and the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Since centuries ago, ships departing from the naval European powers circumnavigated Africa in their route to the Far East. Most of these ships took high-quality observations preserved in logbooks. We show that wind direction observations taken aboard ships can be used to track the seasonal wind reversal typical of monsoonal circulations. The persistence of the SW winds in the 20W-17W and 7N-13N region is highly correlated with the WAM strength and Sahel's precipitation. It has been possible to build a WAM index back to the 19th Century. Our results show that in the Sahel, the second half of the 19thCentury was significantly wetter than present day. The relation of the WAM with the ENSO cycle, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was low and instable from the 1840s to the 1970s, when they abruptly suffered an unprecedented reinforcement which last up to the present day. The persistence of the SSW wind in the 60E-80E and 8N-12N area has been used to track the ISM onset since the 1880s. We found evidences of later than average onset dates during the 1900-1925 and 1970-1990 periods and earlier than average onset between 1940 and 1965. A significant relation between the ISM onset and the PDO restricted to shifts from negative to positive PDO phases has been found. The most significant contribution of our study is the fact that we have shown that it is possible to build consistent monsoon indices of instrumental character using solely direct observations of wind direction. Our indices have been generated by using data currently available in the ICOADS 2.5 database, but a large amount of wind observations for periods previous to the 20thcentury still remain not explored in thousands of logbooks preserved in British archives. The interest of unveil these data to track the monsoons for more than 200 -or even 300 years- it is

  19. Insolation and Abrupt Climate Change Effects on the Western Pacific Maritime Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.; Cardenas, M.; Siringan, F. P.; Hori, M.; Okumura, Y.; Banner, J. L.; Lin, K.; Jiang, X.; Taylor, F. W.

    2013-12-01

    Many monsoon-sensitive paleoclimate archives capture the response of the Asian-Australian monsoon system to changes in summer insolation, as well as abrupt climate changes such as the Younger Dryas (YD). The response is commonly a direct one in Holocene and YD archives. In the case of insolation, increased summer insolation leads to increased monsoon rainfall over land, as captured in stalagmite δ18O records from Oman and China. We evaluate this direct response using maritime stalagmite records from the island of Palawan, Philippines (10 N, 119 E). The wet season in Palawan occurs over the same months (June-October) as in Oman, India and China. Therefore, we expected the Palawan stalagmite δ18O record, a proxy of rainfall, to have a similar response to changing insolation and hence, a trend of decreasing monsoon rainfall over the Holocene. However, the Holocene trend in two partially replicated stalagmite δ18O records is opposite to that expected: rainfall increases over the Holocene, despite the decrease of summer insolation over the Holocene. We interpret the Holocene trend observed at Palawan to be the result of an increase in the maritime monsoon that balances the reduction in the land monsoon; an interpretation that is consistent with previously published results from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model runs. Seawater δ18O reconstructions from marine sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific contain a freshening trend over the Holocene, also supporting the hypothesis of increase maritime monsoon rainfall. The direct relationship between monsoon rainfall over land as recorded in the YD interval in Chinese stalagmite records is also observed in maritime monsoon rainfall during the YD at Palawan: both records get drier during the YD cold interval. This agreement between YD stalagmite records from China and Palawan contrasts sharply with the inverse relationship between these records over the Holocene. We further investigate the nature of

  20. Advancing the application of systems thinking in health: South African examples of a leadership of sensemaking for primary health care

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background New forms of leadership are required to bring about the fundamental health system changes demanded by primary health care (PHC). Using theory about complex adaptive systems and policy implementation, this paper considers how actors’ sensemaking and the exercise of discretionary power currently combine to challenge PHC re-orientation in the South African health system; and provides examples of leadership practices that promote sensemaking and power use in support of PHC. Methods The paper draws on observational, interview, and reflective data collected as part of the District Innovation and Action Learning for Health Systems Development (DIALHS) project being implemented in Cape Town, South Africa. Undertaken collaboratively between health managers and researchers, the project is implemented through cycles of action-learning, including systematic reflection and synthesis. It includes a particular focus on how local health managers can better support front line facility managers in strengthening PHC. Results The results illuminate how the collective understandings of staff working at the primary level - of their working environment and changes within it – act as a barrier to centrally-led initiatives to strengthen PHC. Staff often fail to take ownership of such initiatives and experience them as disempowering. Local area managers, located between the centre and the service frontline, have a vital role to play in providing a leadership of sensemaking to mediate these challenges. Founded on personal values, such leadership entails, for example, efforts to nurture PHC-aligned values and mind-sets among staff; build relationships and support the development of shared meanings about change; instil a culture of collective inquiry and mutual accountability; and role-model management practices, including using language to signal meaning. Conclusions PHC will only become a lived reality within the South African health system when frontline staff are able to

  1. Internal Dynamics and Boundary Forcing Characteristics Associated with Interannual Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.- M.; Kim, K.-M.; Yang, S.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper, we present a description of the internal dynamics and boundary forcing characteristics of two major components of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), i.e., the South Asian (SAM) and the Southeast-East Asian monsoon (SEAM). The description is based on a new monsoon-climate paradigm in which the variability of ASM is considered as the outcome of the interplay of a "fast" and an "intermediate" monsoon subsystem, under the influenced of the "slow" varying external forcings. Two sets of regional monsoon indices derived from dynamically consistent rainfall and wind data are used in this study. For SAM, the internal dynamics is represented by that of a "classical" monsoon system where the anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby-wave dynamics, i.e., generation of anomalous vorticity induced by an off-equatorial heat source is balanced by planetary vorticity advection. On the other hand, the internal dynamics of SEAM is characterized by a "hybrid" monsoon system featuring multi-cellular meridional circulation over the East Asian section, extending from the deep tropics to midlatitudes. These meridional-cells link tropical heating to extratropical circulation system via the East Asian jetstream, and are responsible for the characteristic occurrences of zonally oriented anomalous rainfall patterns over East Asian and the subtropical western Pacific. In the extratropical regions, the major upper level vorticity balance is by anomalous vorticity advection and generation by the anomalous divergent circulation. A consequence of this is that compared to SAM, the SEAM is associated with stronger teleconnection patterns to regions outside the ASM. A strong SAM is linked to basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation with significant signal in the equatorial eastern Pacific. During the boreal spring SST warming in the Arabian Sea and the subtropical western Pacific may lead to a strong SAM. For SEAM, interannual variability is tied to SSTA over the Sea of

  2. Cancer statistics for African Americans.

    PubMed

    Ghafoor, Asma; Jemal, Ahmedin; Cokkinides, Vilma; Cardinez, Cheryll; Murray, Taylor; Samuels, Alicia; Thun, Michael J

    2002-01-01

    The American Cancer Society provides estimates on the number of new cancer cases and deaths, and compiles health statistics on African Americans in a biennial publication, Cancer Facts and Figures for African Americans. The compiled statistics include cancer incidence, mortality, survival, and lifestyle behaviors using the most recent data on incidence and survival from the National Cancer Institute's (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), and behavioral information from the Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS), and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). It is estimated that 132,700 new cases of cancer and 63,100 deaths will occur among African Americans in the year 2003. Although African Americans have experienced higher incidence and mortality rates of cancer than whites for many years, incidence rates have declined by 2.7 percent per year in African-American males since 1992, while stabilizing in African-American females. During the same period, death rates declined by 2.1 percent and 0.4 percent per year among African-American males and females, respectively. The decrease in both incidence and death rates from cancer among African-American males was the largest of any racial or ethnic group. Nonetheless, African Americans still carry the highest cancer burden among US racial and ethnic groups. Most cancers detectable by screening are diagnosed at a later stage and survival rates are lower within each stage of disease in African Americans than in whites. The extent to which these disparities reflect unequal access to health care versus other factors is an active area of research.

  3. Multi-proxy Evidence of Australian Summer Monsoon Variability During the Holocene: Links to the East-Asian Monsoon and the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffiths, M. L.; Drysdale, R. N.; Frisia, S.; Gagan, M.; Zhao, J.; Fischer, M.; Ayliffe, L.; Feng, Y.; St Pierre, E.; Hellstrom, J.; Hantoro, W.; Suwargadi, B.

    2008-12-01

    The Australian summer monsoon (ASM) is the dominant factor controlling rainfall variability and terrestrial productivity in northern Australia and the Indonesian archipelago. Understanding the mechanisms that influence its variability over different time-scales, and their teleconnections with other parts of the global climate system, has proven difficult because we lack high-resolution, precisely dated records of past monsoon behaviour. Linkages between the tropics and North Atlantic have been well documented north of the equator, but the degree to which these teleconnection patterns extend into the southern sub-equatorial tropics and their effects on the ASM are undocumented. We present a precisely dated, high-resolution oxygen isotope and trace element record of ASM variability from stalagmites located on Flores (east Indonesia) over the period 13 kyr B.P. to present. The multi-proxy records are constrained by over 30 TIMS and MC-ICP-MS U-series ages. The δ18O profile displays a gradual intensification of the ASM through the Holocene, which is in phase with precipitation changes in southern Brazil but antiphased with East Asian monsoon (EAM) intensity. The low frequency trend in the oxygen isotopes tracks changes in southern hemisphere summer insolation at 25° S located directly over the heat-low region of the Australian continent. Superimposed upon the δ18O trend are multi-decadal to centennial scale increased ASM events that occur concurrently (within dating errors) with periods of decreased EAM intensity and North Atlantic ice-rafting events. Thus, late-Pleistocene/Holocene cold events in the North Atlantic, related to reductions in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and variations in solar output, were associated with a southward migration of the ITCZ. While precessional forcing appears to be the dominant driver of ASM circulation over orbital time-scales, the high synchroneity between the Flores isotope variations and titanium (Ti) content of

  4. Applying participatory approaches in the evaluation of surveillance systems: A pilot study on African swine fever surveillance in Corsica.

    PubMed

    Calba, Clémentine; Antoine-Moussiaux, Nicolas; Charrier, François; Hendrikx, Pascal; Saegerman, Claude; Peyre, Marisa; Goutard, Flavie L

    2015-12-01

    The implementation of regular and relevant evaluations of surveillance systems is critical in improving their effectiveness and their relevance whilst limiting their cost. The complex nature of these systems and the variable contexts in which they are implemented call for the development of flexible evaluation tools. Within this scope, participatory tools have been developed and implemented for the African swine fever (ASF) surveillance system in Corsica (France). The objectives of this pilot study were, firstly, to assess the applicability of participatory approaches within a developed environment involving various stakeholders and, secondly, to define and test methods developed to assess evaluation attributes. Two evaluation attributes were targeted: the acceptability of the surveillance system and its the non-monetary benefits. Individual semi-structured interviews and focus groups were implemented with representatives from every level of the system. Diagramming and scoring tools were used to assess the different elements that compose the definition of acceptability. A contingent valuation method, associated with proportional piling, was used to assess the non-monetary benefits, i.e., the value of sanitary information. Sixteen stakeholders were involved in the process, through 3 focus groups and 8 individual semi-structured interviews. Stakeholders were selected according to their role in the system and to their availability. Results highlighted a moderate acceptability of the system for farmers and hunters and a high acceptability for other representatives (e.g., private veterinarians, local laboratories). Out of the 5 farmers involved in assessing the non-monetary benefits, 3 were interested in sanitary information on ASF. The data collected via participatory approaches enable relevant recommendations to be made, based on the Corsican context, to improve the current surveillance system. PMID:26489602

  5. African Aesthetics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abiodun, Rowland

    2001-01-01

    No single traditional discipline can adequately supply answers to the many unresolved questions in African art history. Because of the aesthetic, cultural, historical, and, not infrequently, political biases, already built into the conception and development of Western art history, the discipline of art history as defined and practiced in the West…

  6. "African Connection."

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adelman, Cathy; And Others

    This interdisciplinary unit provides students in grades kindergarten through seventh grade an opportunity to understand diversity through a study of Africa as a diverse continent. The project is designed to provide all elementary students with cultural enrichment by exposing them to African music, art, storytelling, and movement. This project can…

  7. Rapid interhemispheric climate links via the Australasian monsoon during the last deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Ayliffe, Linda K; Gagan, Michael K; Zhao, Jian-xin; Drysdale, Russell N; Hellstrom, John C; Hantoro, Wahyoe S; Griffiths, Michael L; Scott-Gagan, Heather; St Pierre, Emma; Cowley, Joan A; Suwargadi, Bambang W

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies have proposed that millennial-scale reorganization of the ocean-atmosphere circulation drives increased upwelling in the Southern Ocean, leading to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and ice age terminations. Southward migration of the global monsoon is thought to link the hemispheres during deglaciation, but vital evidence from the southern sector of the vast Australasian monsoon system is yet to emerge. Here we present a 230thorium-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope record of millennial-scale changes in Australian-Indonesian monsoon rainfall over the last 31,000 years. The record shows that abrupt southward shifts of the Australian-Indonesian monsoon were synchronous with North Atlantic cold intervals 17,600-11,500 years ago. The most prominent southward shift occurred in lock-step with Heinrich Stadial 1 (17,600-14,600 years ago), and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our findings show that millennial-scale climate change was transmitted rapidly across Australasia and lend support to the idea that the 3,000-year-long Heinrich 1 interval could have been critical in driving the last deglaciation.

  8. A correlated shortening of the North and South American monsoon seasons in the past few decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arias, Paola A.; Fu, Rong; Vera, Carolina; Rojas, Maisa

    2015-12-01

    Our observational analysis shows that the wet seasons of the American monsoon systems have shortened since 1978 due to correlated earlier retreats of the North American monsoon (NAM) and late onsets of the southern Amazon wet season, an important part of the South American monsoon (SAM). These changes are related to the combination of the global sea surface temperature (SST) warming mode, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the westward shift of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), and the enhancement of Pacific South American and Pacific North American wave train patterns, which induces variations of the regional circulation at interannual and decadal scales. The joint contributions from these forcing factors are associated with a stronger and more equatorward regional Hadley cell, which enhances convergence towards the equator, strengthening and possibly delaying the retreat of the tropical part of the NAM. This in turn accelerates the demise of the northern NAM and delays the reversal of the cross-equatorial flow over South America, reducing moisture transport to the SAM and delaying its onset. In addition, the thermodynamic response to warming appears to cause local drier land conditions over both regions, reinforcing the observed changes in these monsoons. Although previous studies have identified the isolated influence of the regional Hadley cell, ENSO, AMO, global SST warming, and NASH on the NAM, the correlated changes between NAM and SAM through variations of the cross-equatorial flow had not been established before.

  9. Rapid interhemispheric climate links via the Australasian monsoon during the last deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Ayliffe, Linda K; Gagan, Michael K; Zhao, Jian-xin; Drysdale, Russell N; Hellstrom, John C; Hantoro, Wahyoe S; Griffiths, Michael L; Scott-Gagan, Heather; St Pierre, Emma; Cowley, Joan A; Suwargadi, Bambang W

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies have proposed that millennial-scale reorganization of the ocean-atmosphere circulation drives increased upwelling in the Southern Ocean, leading to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and ice age terminations. Southward migration of the global monsoon is thought to link the hemispheres during deglaciation, but vital evidence from the southern sector of the vast Australasian monsoon system is yet to emerge. Here we present a 230thorium-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope record of millennial-scale changes in Australian-Indonesian monsoon rainfall over the last 31,000 years. The record shows that abrupt southward shifts of the Australian-Indonesian monsoon were synchronous with North Atlantic cold intervals 17,600-11,500 years ago. The most prominent southward shift occurred in lock-step with Heinrich Stadial 1 (17,600-14,600 years ago), and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our findings show that millennial-scale climate change was transmitted rapidly across Australasia and lend support to the idea that the 3,000-year-long Heinrich 1 interval could have been critical in driving the last deglaciation. PMID:24309539

  10. Rapid interhemispheric climate links via the Australasian monsoon during the last deglaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayliffe, Linda K.; Gagan, Michael K.; Zhao, Jian-Xin; Drysdale, Russell N.; Hellstrom, John C.; Hantoro, Wahyoe S.; Griffiths, Michael L.; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Pierre, Emma St; Cowley, Joan A.; Suwargadi, Bambang W.

    2013-12-01

    Recent studies have proposed that millennial-scale reorganization of the ocean-atmosphere circulation drives increased upwelling in the Southern Ocean, leading to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and ice age terminations. Southward migration of the global monsoon is thought to link the hemispheres during deglaciation, but vital evidence from the southern sector of the vast Australasian monsoon system is yet to emerge. Here we present a 230thorium-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope record of millennial-scale changes in Australian-Indonesian monsoon rainfall over the last 31,000 years. The record shows that abrupt southward shifts of the Australian-Indonesian monsoon were synchronous with North Atlantic cold intervals 17,600-11,500 years ago. The most prominent southward shift occurred in lock-step with Heinrich Stadial 1 (17,600-14,600 years ago), and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our findings show that millennial-scale climate change was transmitted rapidly across Australasia and lend support to the idea that the 3,000-year-long Heinrich 1 interval could have been critical in driving the last deglaciation.

  11. Atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) of southern Taiwan in relation to monsoons.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Jing-O; Ko, Fung-Chi; Lee, Chon-Lin; Fang, Meng-Der

    2016-08-01

    The concentrations and gas-particle partitioning of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were intensively measured in the Hengchun Peninsula of southern Taiwan. The concentrations of total PAH (Σ38PAH), including gas and particle phases, ranged from 0.85 to 4.40 ng m(-3). No significant differences in the PAH levels and patterns were found between the samples taken at day and at night. The gas phase PAH concentrations were constant year-round, but the highest levels of particle-associated PAHs were found during the northeast monsoon season. Long-range transport and rainfall scavenging mechanisms contributed to the elevated levels in aerosols andΣ38PAH concentrations. Results from principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that the major sources of PAHs in this study were vehicular emissions. The back trajectories demonstrated that air mass movement driven by the monsoon system was the main influence on atmospheric PAH profiles and concentrations in the rural region of southern Taiwan. Gas-particle partition coefficients (K p ) of PAHs were well-correlated with sub-cooled liquid vapor pressures (P (o) L ) and demonstrated significant seasonal variation between the northeast (NE) and the southwest (SW) monsoon seasons. This study sheds light on the role of Asian monsoons regarding the atmospheric transport of PAHs. PMID:27137192

  12. Tracking moisture pathways to Asia since the late Cretaceous: The competing influences of westerly and monsoonal dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caves, Jeremy; Bayshashov, Bolat; Zhamangara, Aizhan; Ritch, Andrea; Ibarra, Daniel; Gao, Yuan; Sjostrom, Derek; Page Chamberlain, C.

    2016-04-01

    There remains substantial debate concerning how uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and the greater India-Asia collisional orogenic system has impacted the strength of the Asian monsoonal systems. Deciphering the extent of the Asian monsoons through time requires knowledge of the relative influence of the major circulation systems that today deliver moisture to Asia, including the Southeast Asian Monsoon, the East Asian Monsoon, and the mid-latitude westerlies. Oxygen isotopes (δ18O) in precipitation provide a promising method to evaluate these systems through time, because δ18O in precipitation records both the moisture source as well as the relative importance of rainout and evapotranspiration; as a result, δ18O can be used to track the extent of monsoonal versus westerly moisture. Presently, southern Tibet receives depleted 18O monsoonal moisture from distillation over the Himalayas, while northern Tibet and Central Asia receive enriched 18O moisture borne by the mid-latitude westerlies. Remarkably, a compilation of nearly 3,000 Cenozoic paleosol and lacustrine carbonate samples from across Asia demonstrates that this spatial distribution has remained constant for approximately the past 50 million years. Since the early Eocene, southern Tibet has received low δ18O moisture, while Central Asia has received high δ18O moisture. A constant spatial distribution through time suggests that the relative extents of the monsoon and the westerlies have remained approximately constant since the early Eocene, despite substantial paleogeographic changes, including retreat of the Paratethys and uplift of the northern Tibetan Plateau, Tian Shan, and Altai. To extend these records back in time and further explore the role of the monsoon and westerlies in supplying moisture to Asia, we present new records of stable isotopes from late Cretaceous paleosol carbonates from the Songliao Basin (NE China) and the Gobi Desert (Mongolia), and a long, late Cretaceous to Pliocene record of

  13. Effect of South African beef production systems on post-mortem muscle energy status and meat quality.

    PubMed

    Frylinck, L; Strydom, P E; Webb, E C; du Toit, E

    2013-04-01

    Post-slaughter muscle energy metabolism meat colour of South African production systems were compared; steers (n=182) of Nguni, Simmental Brahman crossbreds were reared on pasture until A-, AB-, or B-age, in feedlot until A-AB-age. After exsanguination carcasses were electrically stimulated (400 V for 15 s). M. longissimus dorsi muscle energy samples were taken at 1, 2, 4 and 20 h. Post-mortem samples for meat quality studies were taken at 1, 7 and 14 days post-mortem. Production systems affected muscle glycogen, glucose, glucose-6-P, lactic acid, ATP, creatine-P glycolytic potential (P<0.05), with the muscles of feedlot carcasses having a faster glycolysis rate than pasture carcasses. Energy metabolites correlated (0.40.5) water holding capacity, drip loss, and Warner Bratzler shear force. Muscle energy only affected muscle contraction of the A-age-pasture system (shortest sarcomere length of 1.66 μm vs 1.75 μm highest WBS of 6 kg vs 5 kg 7 days post-mortem). PMID:23305833

  14. Fuzzy logic and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for characterization of contaminant exposure through selected biomarkers in African catfish.

    PubMed

    Karami, Ali; Keiter, Steffen; Hollert, Henner; Courtenay, Simon C

    2013-03-01

    This study represents a first attempt at applying a fuzzy inference system (FIS) and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to the field of aquatic biomonitoring for classification of the dosage and time of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) injection through selected biomarkers in African catfish (Clarias gariepinus). Fish were injected either intramuscularly (i.m.) or intraperitoneally (i.p.) with BaP. Hepatic glutathione S-transferase (GST) activities, relative visceral fat weights (LSI), and four biliary fluorescent aromatic compounds (FACs) concentrations were used as the inputs in the modeling study. Contradictory rules in FIS and ANFIS models appeared after conversion of bioassay results into human language (rule-based system). A "data trimming" approach was proposed to eliminate the conflicts prior to fuzzification. However, the model produced was relevant only to relatively low exposures to BaP, especially through the i.m. route of exposure. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was unable to raise the classification rate to an acceptable level. In conclusion, FIS and ANFIS models have limited applications in the field of fish biomarker studies.

  15. Effect of South African beef production systems on post-mortem muscle energy status and meat quality.

    PubMed

    Frylinck, L; Strydom, P E; Webb, E C; du Toit, E

    2013-04-01

    Post-slaughter muscle energy metabolism meat colour of South African production systems were compared; steers (n=182) of Nguni, Simmental Brahman crossbreds were reared on pasture until A-, AB-, or B-age, in feedlot until A-AB-age. After exsanguination carcasses were electrically stimulated (400 V for 15 s). M. longissimus dorsi muscle energy samples were taken at 1, 2, 4 and 20 h. Post-mortem samples for meat quality studies were taken at 1, 7 and 14 days post-mortem. Production systems affected muscle glycogen, glucose, glucose-6-P, lactic acid, ATP, creatine-P glycolytic potential (P<0.05), with the muscles of feedlot carcasses having a faster glycolysis rate than pasture carcasses. Energy metabolites correlated (0.40.5) water holding capacity, drip loss, and Warner Bratzler shear force. Muscle energy only affected muscle contraction of the A-age-pasture system (shortest sarcomere length of 1.66 μm vs 1.75 μm highest WBS of 6 kg vs 5 kg 7 days post-mortem).

  16. IODP Expedition 359: Maldives Monsoon and Sea Level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Betzler, Christian; Eberli, Gregor; Zarikian, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    Drilling the carbonate platforms and drifts in the Maldives aimed to recover the marine tropical record of the Neogene sea-level changes and the onset of the monsoon related current system in the Indian Ocean. To reach this goal, eight sites were drilled along two transects in the Kardiva Channel in the Inner Sea of the Maldives during IODP Expedition 359. The recovered cores and log data retrieved the material to achieve all the objectives set for the expedition. The most arresting accomplishment is the documentation of how the sea level controlled the carbonate platform system that was thriving during the Miocene Climate Optimum abruptly transitioned into a current-dominated system in the late Middle Miocene. This transition is linked to the onset of an early intensification of the Indian monsoon and the coeval demise of some of the Maldivian platforms. Cores and downhole logs allowed producing a solid record and reconstructing the Neogene environmental changes in the central Indian Ocean. Preliminary shipboard analyses allow a precise dating of this major paleoclimatological and paleoceanographical changes, as it also applies for the extension of the Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ) into this part of the Indian Ocean. Coring produced a solid framework to foster the post-cruise research of these distinct topics. In addition, complete spliced sections and logging at key sites during Expedition 359 provide the potential to assemble a cycle-based astrochronology for the Neogene section in the Maldives. This high-resolution chronology will allow: 1) independent ages to be assigned to key biostratigraphic events in the Maldives for comparison with those from other tropical regions; 2) more precise ages for the major sequence boundaries and unconformities; and 3) evaluation of higher-resolution sedimentation rate variations.

  17. The palaeo-lake Suguta and its importance for understanding lake level fluctuations in the East African Rift System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junginger, A.; Olago, D. O.; Trauth, M. H.

    2010-12-01

    We studied the most recent dry-wet-dry cycle in the presently arid Suguta Valley in the Northern Kenya Rift where a 300-m-deep lake has formed during the so-called African Humid Period (AHP, 14.8-5.5 ka BP). Hydromodeling suggests that a relatively moderate 25% increase in precipitation was responsible for this dramatic lake level rise, which demonstrates the character of the Suguta Valley as an amplifier lake system. To detect the response of this lake system to climate fluctuations and their possible driving mechanisms with a focus on abrupt vs. gradual changes, we reconstructed a palaeo-lake level record for the time between 14 and 5 ka BP from up to 40 m thick lake-sediment sequences at three locations in the ~2,500 km2 palaeo-lake Suguta area. The sediments have been investigated for sediment characteristics such as grain size distributions, detrital and authigenic mineral phases, geochemical properties and microfossil assemblages. The stratigraphy for the sequences is based on 38 AMS 14C ages of biogenic carbonate and charcoal samples. Parallel dating of charcoal and snail-shell samples show age differences between 1,570-2,240 years suggesting a remarkably high, but well-defined reservoir age for palaeo-Lake Suguta most likely due to aged groundwater or 14C depleted CO2 degassing from active volcanoes. The observed reservoir effect highlights the potential problems while correlating East African lake level records with chronologies based on 14C datings of aquatic materials. The new chronology of water level fluctuations in the amplifier-lake Suguta indicates a general dry-wet-dry cycle synchronous with other lake chronologies during the AHP and multiple short-term fluctuations with abrupt lake level drops between 100 to 300 m within 100 to 200 years at 12.8-11.6 (during Younger Dryas time), 11.1-10.9; 10.4-10.2; 9.5-9.1; 9.0-8.8; 8.5-8.1 (during the 8.2 ka event) cal ka BP that seem to be linked with changes in the coupling between atmosphere and ocean

  18. Monsoon drought over Java, Indonesia, during the past two centuries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Wilson, Rob; Palmer, Jonathan; Krusic, Paul; Curtis, Ashley; Sakulich, John; Bijaksana, Satria; Zulaikah, Siti; Ngkoimani, La Ode

    2006-02-01

    Monsoon droughts, which often coincide with El Niño warm events, can have profound impacts on the populations of Southeast Asia. Improved understanding and prediction of such events can be aided by high-resolution proxy climate records, but these are scarce for the tropics. Here we reconstruct the boreal autumn (October-November) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Java, Indonesia (1787-1988). This reconstruction is based on nine ring-width chronologies derived from living teak trees growing on the islands of Java and Sulawesi, and one coral δ18O series from Lombok. The PDSI reconstruction correlates significantly with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related sea surface temperatures and other historical and instrumental records of tropical climate, reflecting the strong coupling between the climate of Indonesia and the large scale tropical Indo-Pacific climate system.

  19. Autoencoder-based identification of predictors of Indian monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saha, Moumita; Mitra, Pabitra; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2016-10-01

    Prediction of Indian summer monsoon uses a number of climatic variables that are historically known to provide a high skill. However, relationships between predictors and predictand could be complex and also change with time. The present work attempts to use a machine learning technique to identify new predictors for forecasting the Indian monsoon. A neural network-based non-linear dimensionality reduction technique, namely, the sparse autoencoder is used for this purpose. It extracts a number of new predictors that have prediction skills higher than the existing ones. Two non-linear ensemble prediction models of regression tree and bagged decision tree are designed with identified monsoon predictors and are shown to be superior in terms of prediction accuracy. Proposed model shows mean absolute error of 4.5 % in predicting the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Lastly, geographical distribution of the new monsoon predictors and their characteristics are discussed.