Science.gov

Sample records for african monsoon variability

  1. The West African Monsoon: variability and teleconnection with ENSO during the years 1948-57

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stickler, Alexander; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2010-05-01

    The intensity of the West African Monsoon (WAM) has been shown to be influenced by different factors. Most important for the existence of the monsoon system is the land-sea thermal contrast between the North African landmass and the Gulf of Guinea. ENSO plays an important role for its interannual variability via an atmospheric teleconnection bridging the Pacific and Atlantic oceanic basins and favouring either descent/weak low-level monsoon flow or ascent/strong low-level monsoon flow over tropical West Africa. Most published studies on the WAM variability are based on reanalysis datasets. However, while reproducing quite well the interannual variability, reanalysis products have been found to contain major biases in certain tropical regions before 1968. These lead to an unrealistic low frequency behaviour and might be explained by the lack of observations assimilated into the reanalyses, as is the case e.g. for tropical Africa where only the much sparser radiosonde data have been assimilated into the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNR). Here we present an analysis of the interannual WAM variability and its teleconnection with ENSO for the years 1948-57 which is not based on a reanalysis, but on early pilot balloon observational wind data from the Comprehensive Historical Upper Air Network (CHUAN). We have examined wind data from all 36 stations located in the domain (10°S-30°N, 20°W-20°E) on 5 levels up to the mid troposphere (corresponding roughly to the 925, 850, 700, 600 and 500 hPa pressure levels). This analysis shows that 7 subregions can be defined which are characterised by similar vertical wind profiles as well as seasonality: the NW (Mauritania, northern Senegal), the SW (southern Senegal to coastal Guinea), central sub-Saharan West Africa (SSWA, from interior Guinea in the W to coastal Cameroon and southern Niger in the E), central and eastern Niger, western Chad, the western Central African Republic, and the southern coastal regions east of the Gulf of

  2. Revisiting the role of global SST anomalies and their effects on West African monsoon variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pomposi, Catherine; Kushnir, Yochanan; Giannini, Alessandra

    2016-04-01

    The West African Monsoon is a significant component of the global monsoon system, delivering the majority of annual precipitation for the Sahel and varying on timescales from seasons to decades and beyond. Much of the internal variability of this system is driven by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and their resulting atmospheric teleconnections linking oceanic changes to land-based precipitation. Previous idealized studies have identified the role of particular ocean basins in driving monsoon variations on a number of key timescales, including the Atlantic basin as the main driver behind decadal-scale changes and the Pacific basin for interannual variability. However, understanding of how the monsoon responds to global SSTs remains incomplete because the system can be affected by moisture availability locally as well as tropical atmospheric stability, both of which are influenced by ocean temperatures. Furthermore, the complexity of how the global ocean basins change in relation to one another (what we refer to as superposition of anomalies) can result in Sahel precipitation anomalies that are contrary to what one might posit when considering the state of a single basin alone (e.g. the 2015 El Niño event and a relatively wet Sahel). The aim of this work is to revisit the role of global SSTs in driving Sahel rainfall variability over the recent past using a blending of observations and new model output. We seek to disentangle the state of various basins in combination with each other in driving normal or anomalously dry or wet years, resolving the ways that remote and local ocean forcings affect the movement of convection from the Guinea coast inland and northward into the Sahel, and include the study of circulation and stability components of the atmosphere. Preliminary diagnostic work suggests that varying SST conditions across ocean basins could imprint distinctly different precipitation responses in the Sahel. For example, precipitation anomalies are

  3. A comparison of regional monsoon variability using monsoon indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Wu, Zhiwei

    2014-09-01

    The present study aims to (a) examine meteorological basis for construction of regional monsoon indices and (b) explore the commonality and differences among tropical regional monsoons, especially the teleconnection and monsoon-ENSO relationship. We show that the area-averaged summer precipitation intensity is generally a meaningful precipitation index for tropical monsoons because it represents very well both the amplitude of annual cycle and the leading mode of year-to-year rainfall variability with a nearly uniform spatial pattern. The regional monsoon circulation indices can be defined in a unified way (measuring monsoon trough vorticity) for seven tropical monsoon regions, viz.: Indian, Australian, western North Pacific, North and South American, and Northern and Southern African monsoons. The structures of the tropical monsoons are commonly characterized by a pair of upper-level double anticyclones residing in the subtropics of both hemispheres; notably the winter hemispheric anticyclone has a barotropic structure and is a passive response. Two types of upper-level teleconnection patterns are identified. One is a zonal wave train emanating from the double anticyclones downstream along the westerly jets in both hemispheres, including Indian, Northern African and Australian monsoons; the other is a meridional wave train emanating from the double anticyclones polewards, such as the South American and western North Pacific monsoons. Over the past 55 years all regional summer monsoons have non-stationary relationship with ENSO except the Australian monsoon. The regional monsoon-ENSO relationship is found to have common changing points in 1970s. The relationships were enhanced for the western North Pacific, Northern African, North American and South American summer monsoons, but weakened for the Indian summer monsoon (with a recovery in late 1990s). Regardless the large regional differences, the monsoon precipitations over land areas of all tropical monsoon regions

  4. Variability of West African monsoon patterns generated by a WRF multi-physics ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, Cornelia; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstmann, Harald

    2015-11-01

    The credibility of regional climate simulations over West Africa stands and falls with the ability to reproduce the West African monsoon (WAM) whose precipitation plays a pivotal role for people's livelihood. In this study, we simulate the WAM for the wet year 1999 with a 27-member multi-physics ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We investigate the inter-member differences in a process-based manner in order to extract generalizable information on the behavior of the tested cumulus (CU), microphysics (MP), and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes. Precipitation, temperature and atmospheric dynamics are analyzed in comparison to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall estimates, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) gridded gauge-analysis, the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) gridded temperature product and the forcing data (ERA-Interim) to explore interdependencies of processes leading to a certain WAM regime. We find that MP and PBL schemes contribute most to the ensemble spread (147 mm month-1) for monsoon precipitation over the study region. Furthermore, PBL schemes have a strong influence on the movement of the WAM rainband because of their impact on the cloud fraction, that ranges from 8 to 20 % at 600 hPa during August. More low- and mid-level clouds result in less incoming radiation and a weaker monsoon. Ultimately, we identify the differing intensities of the moist Hadley-type meridional circulation that connects the monsoon winds to the Tropical Easterly Jet as the main source for inter-member differences. The ensemble spread of Sahel precipitation and associated dynamics for August 1999 is comparable to the observed inter-annual spread (1979-2010) between dry and wet years, emphasizing the strong potential impact of regional processes and the need for a careful selection of model parameterizations.

  5. A distal 140 kyr sediment record of Nile discharge and East African monsoon variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehrmann, Werner; Schmiedl, Gerhard; Seidel, Martin; Krüger, Stefan; Schulz, Hartmut

    2016-03-01

    Clay mineral assemblages in a sediment core from the distal Nile discharge plume off Israel have been used to reconstruct the late Quaternary Nile sediment discharge into the eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS). The record spans the last ca. 140 kyr. Smectite abundances indicate the influence of the Blue Nile and the Atbara River that have their headwaters in the volcanic rocks of the Ethiopian Highlands. Kaolinite abundances indicate the influence of wadis, which contribute periodically to the suspension load of the Nile. Due to the geographical position, the climate and the sedimentary framework of the EMS is controlled by two climate systems. The long-term climate regime was governed by the African monsoon that caused major African humid periods (AHPs) with enhanced sediment discharge at 132 to < 126 (AHP 5), 116 to 99 (AHP4), and 89 to 77 ka (AHP3). They lasted much longer than the formation of the related sapropel layers S5 (> 2 kyr), S4 (3.5 kyr), and S3 (5 kyr). During the last glacial period (Marine Isotope Stages (MISs) 4-2), the long-term changes in the monsoonal system were superimposed by millennial-scale changes in an intensified midlatitude glacial system. This climate regime caused short but pronounced drought periods in the Nile catchment, which are linked to Heinrich events and alternate with more humid interstadials. The clay mineral record further implies that feedback mechanisms between vegetation cover and sediment discharge of the Nile are detectable but of minor importance for the sedimentary record in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea during the investigated African humid periods.

  6. A distal 145 ka sediment record of Nile discharge and East African monsoon variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehrmann, W.; Schmiedl, G.; Seidel, M.; Krüger, S.; Schulz, H.

    2015-09-01

    Clay mineral assemblages in a sediment core from the distal Nile discharge plume off Israel have been used to reconstruct the late Quaternary Nile sediment discharge into the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS). The record spans the last ca. 145 ka. Smectite abundances indicate the influence of the Blue Nile and Atbara that have their headwaters in the volcanic rocks of the Ethiopian highlands. Kaolinite abundances indicate the influence of wadis, which contribute periodically to the suspension load of the Nile. Due to the geographical position, the climate and the sedimentary framework of the EMS is controlled by two climate systems. The long-term climate regime was governed by the African monsoon that caused major humid periods with enhanced sediment discharge at 132 to < 122 ka (AHP 5), 113 to 104 ka (AHP 4), and 86 to 74 ka (AHP 3). They lasted much longer than the formation of the related sapropel layers S5, S4 and S3. During the last glacial period (MIS 4-2) the long-term changes of the monsoonal system were superimposed by millennial-scale changes of an intensified mid-latitude glacial system. This climate regime caused short but pronounced drought periods in the Nile catchment, which are linked to Heinrich Events and alternate with more humid interstadials. The clay mineral record further implies that feedback mechanisms between vegetation cover and sediment discharge of the Nile are detectable but of minor importance for the sedimentary record in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea during the investigated African Humid Periods.

  7. West African monsoon decadal variability and surface-related forcings: second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Yongkang; De Sales, Fernando; Lau, William K.-M.; Boone, Aaron; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Wang, Guiling; Kucharski, Fred; Schiro, Kathleen; Hosaka, Masahiro; Li, Suosuo; Druyan, Leonard M.; Sanda, Ibrah Seidou; Thiaw, Wassila; Zeng, Ning; Comer, Ruth E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Mahanama, Sarith; Song, Guoqiong; Gu, Yu; Hagos, Samson M.; Chin, Mian; Schubert, Siegfried; Dirmeyer, Paul; Ruby Leung, L.; Kalnay, Eugenia; Kitoh, Akio; Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Zhang, Zhengqiu

    2016-06-01

    The second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II) is designed to improve understanding of the possible roles and feedbacks of sea surface temperature (SST), land use land cover change (LULCC), and aerosols forcings in the Sahel climate system at seasonal to decadal scales. The project's strategy is to apply prescribed observationally based anomaly forcing, i.e., "idealized but realistic" forcing, in simulations by climate models. The goal is to assess these forcings' effects in producing/amplifying seasonal and decadal climate variability in the Sahel between the 1950s and the 1980s, which is selected to characterize the great drought period of the last century. This is the first multi-model experiment specifically designed to simultaneously evaluate such relative contributions. The WAMME II models have consistently demonstrated that SST forcing is a major contributor to the twentieth century Sahel drought. Under the influence of the maximum possible SST forcing, the ensemble mean of WAMME II models can produce up to 60 % of the precipitation difference during the period. The present paper also addresses the role of SSTs in triggering and maintaining the Sahel drought. In this regard, the consensus of WAMME II models is that both Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs greatly contributed to the drought, with the former producing an anomalous displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone before the WAM onset, and the latter mainly contributes to the summer WAM drought. The WAMME II models also show that the impact of LULCC forcing on the Sahel climate system is weaker than that of SST forcing, but still of first order magnitude. According to the results, under LULCC forcing the ensemble mean of WAMME II models can produces about 40 % of the precipitation difference between the 1980s and the 1950s. The role of land surface processes in responding to and amplifying the drought is also identified. The results suggest that catastrophic

  8. Bipolar modulation of millennial-scale West African monsoon variability during the last glacial (75,000-25,000 years ago)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weldeab, Syee

    2012-04-01

    Time series of planktonic foraminiferal δ18O and Ba/Ca-based sea surface salinity (SSS) estimates from the eastern Gulf of Guinea (eastern equatorial Atlantic) indicate changes in runoff that reflect variability of spatially integrated precipitation over the equatorial West African monsoon area. Millennial-scale and recurring runoff-induced SSS rises and declines in the range of 1.5 and 2 psu (practical salinity unit) reveal rapid oscillation between dry and wet phases. The timing of decreased runoff coincides with oscillation of Dansgaard-Oeschger stadials and Heinrich events, the most severe monsoon weakening correlating with the latter. δ18Oresidual time series, derived by removing temperature, ice volume, and salinity components from the foraminiferal δ18O record, suggest that weak monsoon precipitation during stadials and Heinrich events was accompanied by significant shifts in δ18Oprecipitation toward higher values. Furthermore, δ18O analysis of individual tests of Globigerinoides ruber pink (δ18Oindiv) during dry episodes show a total range and variance of 2.3‰ and 0.25 (n = 121), indicating that seasonal contrast of sea surface freshening was significantly reduced during Heinrich events relative to that of interstadials which show a total range and variance of 3.35‰ and 0.42 (n = 140). On the basis of the timing and magnitude of changes in the monsoon record, it is evident that northern high latitude climate was the most dominant control on the West African monsoon variability. However, a southern high latitude imprint is also apparent during some episodes. This centennially resolved climate record demonstrates that the equatorial West African monsoon experienced profound changes in the amount, seasonal contrast, and moisture source of summer monsoon precipitation during the last glacial. The most plausible mechanism is a large-scale southward displacement of the monsoon trough, most likely initiated by large-scale reorganization of atmospheric

  9. Stratospheric variability of wave activity and parameters in equatorial coastal and tropical sites during the West African monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafando, P.; Chane-Ming, F.; Petitdidier, M.

    2015-08-01

    Recent numerical studies in stratospheric dynamics and its variability as well as climate, have highlighted the need of more observational analyses to improve simulation of the West African monsoon (WAM). In this paper, activity and spectral characteristics of short-scale vertical waves (wavelengths <4 km) are analysed in equatorial coastal and tropical lower stratosphere during the WAM. A first detailed description of such waves over West Africa is derived from high-resolution vertical profiles of temperature and horizontal wind obtained during Intensive Observation Period of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) Campaign 2006. Monthly variation of wave energy density is revealed to trace the progression of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over West Africa. Mesoscale inertia gravity-waves structures with vertical and horizontal wavelengths of 1.5-2.5 and 400-1100 km respectively and intrinsic frequencies of 1.1-2.2 f or periods <2 days are observed in the tropical LS with intense activity during July and August when the WAM is installed over the tropical West Africa. Over equatorial region, gravity waves with intrinsic frequencies of 1.4-4 f or periods <5.2 days, vertical wavelength of 2.1 km and long horizontal wavelengths of 1300 km are intense during the WAM coastal phase. From July to October, gravity waves with intrinsic frequencies of 1.2-3.8 f or periods <6 days, vertical wavelength of 2.1 km and horizontal wavelengths of 1650 km are less intense during the WAM Sahelian phase of the WAM, March-June. Unlike potential energy density, kinetic energy density is observed to be a good proxy for the activity of short-scale vertical waves during the WAM because quasi-inertial waves are dominant. Long-term wave activity variation from January 2001 to December 2009, highlights strong year-to-year variation superimposed on convective activity and quasi-biennial oscillation-like variations especially above tropical stations.

  10. Seasonal Evolution and Variability Associated with the West African Monsoon System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.

    2003-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the seasonal variations in surface rainfall and associated large-scale processes in the tropical eastern Atlantic and West African region. The 5-yr (1998-2002) high-quality TRMM rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), water vapor and cloud liquid water observations are applied along with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind components and a 3-yr (2000-2002) Quickscat satellite-observed surface wind product. Major mean rainfall over West Africa tends to be concentrated in two regions and is observed in two different seasons, manifesting an abrupt shift of the mean rainfall zone during June-July. (i) Near the Gulf of Guinea (about 5 degN), intense convection and rainfall are seen during April-June and roughly follow the seasonality of SST in the tropical eastern Atlantic. (ii) Along the latitudes of about 10 deg. N over the interior West African continent, a second intense rain belt begins to develop from July and remains there during the later summer season. This belt co-exists with a northwardmoved African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and its accompanying horizonal and vertical shear zones, the appearance and intensification of an upper tropospheric Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), and a strong low-level westerly flow. Westward-propagating wave signals [ i e . , African easterly waves (AEWs)] dominate the synoptic-scale variability during July-September, in contrast to the evident eastward-propagating wave signals during May- June. The abrupt shift of mean rainfall zone thus turns out to be a combination of two different physical processes: (i) Evident seasonal cycles in the tropical eastern Atlantic ocean which modulate convection and rainfall in the Gulf of Guinea by means of SST thermal forcing and SST-related meridional gradient; (ii) The interaction among the AEJ, TEJ, low-level westerly flow, moist convection and AEWs during July-September which modulates rainfall variability in the interior West Africa, primarily within the ITCZ rain band. Evident

  11. Interactive Aspects of the Indian and the African Summer Monsoon Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanjeeva Rao, P.; Sikka, D. R.

    2007-09-01

    This study addresses an understanding of the possible mutual interactions of sub-seasonal variability of the two neighboring regional monsoon systems through data analysis. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis and OLR data for three years was used to reveal the large-scale organization of convective episodes on synoptic (~5 days) and low frequency (15 50 day) scales. It is found that synoptic scale organization over both the sectors is influenced by the eastward migration of large-scale convective episodes associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the low frequency scale. The organization of convection associated with the African monsoon on the synoptic scale is influenced by the pulsatory character of lower mid-troposphere and upper troposphere wind regimes moving westward over the African sector. Over the Indian region formation of low pressure areas and depressions in the monsoon trough occur in an overlapping manner under an envelope of low frequency seasonal oscillation. We have also found some correspondence between the summer monsoon rainfall over tropical North Africa and India on a decadal basis, which would suggest a common mode of multi-decadal variability in the two monsoon systems. The study points out the need to organize simultaneous field campaigns over the Indian and the African monsoon regions so as to bring out observational features of possible interactions between the two neighboring systems, which could then be validated through modeling studies.

  12. Holocene Monsoon variability in East Africa: a marine perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romahn, S.; Mackensen, A.; Groeneveld, J.; Pätzold, J.

    2012-12-01

    The processes that control past monsoon variability in the East African Tropics during the Holocene are poorly understood. Especially the role of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) controlling East African Rainfall on millennial timescales, as it is observed on decadal timescales, is currently intensely debated. In addition, it has been suggested recently that the longitudinal migration of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB) modulates East African precipitation on a regional scale as well [Tierney et al., 2011]. Here, we present a high-resolution marine sediment record for the past 12 kyrs from offshore Tanzania, close to the Rufiji River delta, to contribute to the current debate from a marine point of view. We reconstructed past SST and δ18Oseawater, derived from planktic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and δ18O, and past Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) variations, derived from planktic foraminiferal Ba/Ca-ratios. In the vicinity of river deltas, Ba/Ca-ratios have potential to record precipitation changes in the rivers' catchment area. Our records show that East African precipitation, derived from Ba/Ca-ratios, roughly varies in concert with Indian Ocean SST, suggesting higher Indian Ocean SST to be an important prerequisite for stronger precipitation, and hence an intense monsoon episode in East Africa. We calculated the difference (ΔSST) between our record of Indian Ocean SST and SST of the tropical Atlantic [Weldeab et al., 2005], showing that ΔSST variability resembles the isotopic pattern of the Kilimanjaro ice core record [Thompson et al., 2002]. We suggest this to be the consequence of a longitudinal movement of the CAB over the African Continent, changing the trajectory of Indian Ocean moisture into the continent and therefore affecting the δ18O of the East African rainout. Thompson, L. G., et al. (2002), Kilimanjaro Ice Core Records: Evidence of Holocene Climate Change in Tropical Africa, Science, 298, 589-593. Tierney, J. E., et al. (2011), Late Quaternary behavior of the

  13. The timing of Mediterranean sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level and African monsoon changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, Katharine; Grimm, Rosina; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Marino, Gianluca; Rohling, Eelco

    2016-04-01

    The periodic deposition of organic rich layers or 'sapropels' in eastern Mediterranean sediments can be linked to orbital-driven changes in the strength and location of (east) African monsoon precipitation. Sapropels are therefore an extremely useful tool for establishing orbital chronologies, and for providing insights about African monsoon variability on long timescales. However, the link between sapropel formation, insolation variations, and African monsoon 'maxima' is not straightforward because other processes (notably, sea-level rise) may have contributed to their deposition, and because there are uncertainties about monsoon-sapropel phase relationships. For example, different phasings are observed between Holocene and early Pleistocene sapropels, and between proxy records and model simulations. To address these issues, we have established geochemical and ice-volume-corrected planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope records for sapropels S1, S3, S4, and S5 in core LC21 from the southern Aegean Sea. The records have a radiometrically constrained chronology that has already been synchronised with the Red Sea relative sea-level record, and this allows us to examine in detail the timing of sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level, and African monsoon changes. Our records suggest that the onset of sapropel deposition and monsoon run-off was near synchronous, yet insolation-sapropel/monsoon phasings varied, whereby monsoon/sapropel onset was relatively delayed (with respect to insolation maxima) after glacial terminations. We suggest that large meltwater discharges into the North Atlantic modified the timing of sapropel deposition by delaying the timing of peak African monsoon run-off. Hence, the previous assumption of a systematic 3-kyr lag between insolation maxima and sapropel midpoints may lead to overestimated insolation-sapropel phasings. We also surmise that both monsoon run-off and sea-level rise were important buoyancy-forcing mechanisms for

  14. Regional analysis of convective systems during the West African monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guy, Bradley Nicholas

    The West African monsoon (WAM) occurs during the boreal summer and is responsible for a majority of precipitation in the northern portion of West Africa. A distinct shift of precipitation, often driven by large propagating mesoscale convective systems, is indicated from satellite observations. Excepting the coarser satellite observations, sparse data across the continent has prevented understanding of mesoscale variability of these important systems. The interaction between synoptic and mesoscale features appears to be an important part of the WAM system. Without an understanding of the mesoscale properties of precipitating systems, improved understanding of the feedback mechanism between spatial scales cannot be attained. Convective and microphysical characteristics of West African convective systems are explored using various observational data sets. Focus is directed toward meso -alpha and -beta scale convective systems to improve our understanding of characteristics at this spatial scale and contextualize their interaction with the larger-scale. Ground-based radar observations at three distinct geographical locations in West Africa along a common latitudinal band (Niamey, Niger [continental], Kawsara, Senegal [coastal], and Praia, Republic of Cape Verde [maritime]) are analyzed to determine convective system characteristics in each domain during a 29 day period in 2006. Ancillary datasets provided by the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) and NASA-AMMA (NAMMA) field campaigns are also used to place the radar observations in context. Results show that the total precipitation is dominated by propagating mesoscale convective systems. Convective characteristics vary according to environmental properties, such as vertical shear, CAPE, and the degree of synoptic forcing. Data are bifurcated based on the presence or absence of African easterly waves. In general, African easterly waves appear to enhance mesoscale convective system strength

  15. Three million years of monsoon variability over the northern Sahara

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larrasoana, J. C.; Roberts, A. P.; Rohling, E. J.; Winklhofer, M.; Wehausen, R.

    2003-04-01

    We present a 3 million-year record of aeolian dust supply into the eastern Mediterranean Sea, based on hematite contents derived from magnetic properties of sediments form ODP Site 967. Our record has an average temporal resolution of ˜400~years. We deduce that the aeolian hematite in eastern Mediterranean sediments derived from eastern Algerian, Libyan, and western Egyptian lowlands located north of the central Saharan watershed (˜21o~N). We relate dust-flux minima to penetration of the African summer monsoon front to the north of the central Saharan watershed. This would have enhanced soil humidity and vegetation cover in the source regions, in agreement with results from "green Sahara" climate models. Our results indicate that this northward monsoon penetration occured pervasively during insolation maxima throughout the last 3 million years. As would be expected, this orbital precession-scale mechanism is modulated on both short (95 kyr) and long (406 kyr) eccentricity time scales. We also observe a strong expression of the 41-kyr obliquity cycle. There is a marked increase in sub-Milankovitch variability around the Mid-Pleistocene transition (˜0.95~Ma), which suggests a link between millennial-scale variability, including monsoon dynamics, and the size of the northern hemisphere ice sheets.

  16. Evaluation of West African Monsoon Processes and Feedbacks: Second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Y.; Lau, W. K.; Boone, A. A.; Seidou Sanda, I.; Thiaw, W. M.; Druyan, L.; Team, W.

    2013-12-01

    Despite recent progress in understanding of the West African monsoon (WAM), there are still many unanswered questions regarding to the impact of external forcings: oceans, land, and aerosols, on WAM variability, especially their roles in the Sahel drought. The West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME) is a project comprised of both general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) with the objective to collectively provide best estimation of the relative importance of all those external forcing on WAM on seasonal to multi-decadal time scales. WAMME research activities are closely coordinated with those of AMMA, involving many African institutions. Observational evidence has shown strong decadal climate variabilities in the Sahel from the 1950s to the 2000s, not only in precipitation, but also in SST, vegetation cover, land use and land cover changes (LULCC), and aerosols. In WAMME-2, multi-model intercomparison experiments are designed to test how seasonal and decadal variabilities of WAM precipitation are associated with these forcings, and assess their relative contributions in producing/amplifying the WAM seasonal and decadal climate variability. The sensitivity of the WAM variability to those external forcings is also examined. The WAMME-2 strategy is to apply observational data-based anomaly forcing of SST, land surface and aerosols, i.e., "idealized but realistic" forcing, in GCM and RCM simulations with the specific purpose of estimating the relative impacts of each forcing and feedback mechanisms. In the SST experiment, in addition to the global SST effect, each ocean's role is also evaluated. The preliminary results from most GCMs consistently indicate that SST has a maximum impact on the WAM decadal variability compared with other forcings, and that the effect of the Pacific Ocean is most dominant. The models, however, differ in producing other oceans' contribution. Moreover, the models with specified maximum SST forcing are

  17. Future of West African Monsoon in A Warming Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raj, Jerry; Kunhu Bangalath, Hamza; Stenchikov, Georgiy

    2016-04-01

    West Africa is the home of more than 300 million people whose agriculture based economy highly relies on West African Monsoon (WAM), which produces a mean annual rainfall of 150 - 2,500 mm and variability and change of which have devastating impact on the local population. The observed widespread drought in West Africa during the 1970s and 1980s was the most significant drought at regional scale during the twentieth century. In this study, a high resolution AGCM, High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), is used to study the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on WAM. HiRAM is developed at GFDL based on AM2 and employs a cubed-sphere finite volume dynamical core and uses shallow convective scheme (for moist convection and stratiform cloudiness) instead of deep convective parameterization. Future projections are done using two representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 2007 to 2050 at C360 (~25 km) resolution. Both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios predict warming over West Africa during boreal summer, especially over Western Sahara. Also, both scenarios predict southward shift in WAM rainfall pattern and drying over Southern Sahara, while RCP 8.5 predicts enhanced rainfall over Gulf of Guinea. The intensification of rainfall over tropical latitudes is caused by increased low level winds due to warm SST over Gulf of Guinea.

  18. The pace of East African monsoon evolution during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weldeab, Syee; Menke, Valerie; Schmiedl, Gerhard

    2014-03-01

    African monsoon precipitation experienced a dramatic change in the course of the Holocene. The pace with which the African monsoon shifted from a strong early to middle to a weak late Holocene is critical for our understanding of climate dynamics, hydroclimate-vegetation interaction, and shifts of prehistoric human settlements, yet it is controversially debated. On the basis of planktonic foraminiferal Ba/Ca time series from the eastern Mediterranean Sea, here we present a proxy record of Nile River runoff that provides a spatially integrated measure of changes in East African monsoon (EAM) precipitation. The runoff record indicates a markedly gradual middle to late Holocene EAM transition that lasted over 3500 years. The timing and pace of runoff change parallels those of insolation and vegetation changes over the Nile basin, indicating orbitally forced variation of insolation as the main EAM forcing and the absence of a nonlinear precipitation-vegetation feedback. A tight correspondence between a threshold level of Nile River runoff and the timing of occupation/abandonment of settlements suggests that along with climate changes in the eastern Sahara, the level of Nile River and intensity of summer floods were likely critical for the habitability of the Nile Valley (Egypt).

  19. Interannual variability of South American monsoon circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alonso Gan, Manoel; Rafaele Araújo Lima, Jeane

    2016-04-01

    The South America Monsoon System (SAMS) is responsible for influencing the atmospheric circulation and precipitation over most of tropical South America (SA) during the summer season. Studies for aiming to understand the temporal variability of this system have great value to the scientific community, because the processes that control the monsoon climate are not totally clear. Thus, the main objective of this research is to investigate the possible large-scale climatic factors and the remote interaction mechanisms, which may be associated with summer season interannual variability focusing on identifying the main differences between dry and wet extremes rainy season in the South-eastern Amazon Basin (SAB), Central-West (WC) and Southeast (SE) of Brazil, which are areas influenced by the summer monsoon regime. For such analyzes, Pearson correlations, quantile method and composite analysis were used during the period from 1979 to 2014. The correlation between precipitation anomaly in SAB and the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and wind at 850hPa and 300hPa indicate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence. Precipitation anomalies in WC did not show significant correlation with SSTA. However, a pattern similar to ENSO Modoki type was observed in the composite analysis. At 850 hPa, the presence of an anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation was observed over the central region of SA during wet (dry) summers seasons. Over SE region of Brazil, a dipole SSTA pattern over the South Atlantic was identified, as well the presence of anomalous circulations with an equivalent barotropic structure over these SSTA areas. This pattern is more evident in case of dry summer on the SE. At 300 hPa, the wave train between 30°S-60°S was observed presenting a feature curvature from 120°W reaching SA, similar to the Pacific-South American pattern (PSA). Analysis of the summer interannual variability indicated the manifestation of wet summers more frequently than dry

  20. The timing of Mediterranean sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level and African monsoon changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, K. M.; Grimm, R.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Marino, G.; Ziegler, M.; Rohling, E. J.

    2016-05-01

    The Mediterranean basin is sensitive to global sea-level changes and African monsoon variability on orbital timescales. Both of these processes are thought to be important to the deposition of organic-rich sediment layers or 'sapropels' throughout the eastern Mediterranean, yet their relative influences remain ambiguous. A related issue is that an assumed 3-kyr lag between boreal insolation maxima and sapropel mid-points remains to be tested. Here we present new geochemical and ice-volume-corrected planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope records for sapropels S1 (Holocene), S3, S4, and S5 (Marine Isotope Stage 5) in core LC21 from the southern Aegean Sea. The records have a radiometrically constrained chronology that has already been synchronised with the Red Sea relative sea-level record, and this allows detailed examination of the timing of sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level, and African monsoon changes. We find that sapropel onset was near-synchronous with monsoon run-off into the eastern Mediterranean, but that insolation-sapropel/monsoon phasings were not systematic through the last glacial cycle. These latter phasings instead appear to relate to sea-level changes. We propose that persistent meltwater discharges into the North Atlantic (e.g., at glacial terminations) modified the timing of sapropel deposition by delaying the timing of peak African monsoon run-off. These observations may reconcile apparent model-data offsets with respect to the orbital pacing of the African monsoon. Our observations also imply that the previous assumption of a systematic 3-kyr lag between insolation maxima and sapropel midpoints may lead to overestimated insolation-sapropel phasings. Finally, we surmise that both sea-level rise and monsoon run-off contributed to surface-water buoyancy changes at times of sapropel deposition, and their relative influences differed per sapropel case, depending on their magnitudes. Sea-level rise was clearly important for

  1. Indian Monsoon Depression: Climatology and Variability

    SciTech Connect

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Huang, Wan-Ru

    2012-03-09

    The monsoon climate is traditionally characterized by large seasonal rainfall and reversal of wind direction (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Most importantly this rainfall is the major source of fresh water to various human activities such as agriculture. The Indian subcontinent resides at the core of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon system, with the monsoon trough extended from northern India across Indochina to the Western Tropical Pacific (WTP). Large fraction of annual rainfall occurs during the summer monsoon season, i.e., June - August with two distinct maxima. One is located over the Bay of Bengal with rainfall extending northwestward into eastern and central India, and the other along the west coast of India where the lower level moist wind meets the Western Ghat Mountains (Saha and Bavardeckar 1976). The rest of the Indian subcontinent receives relatively less rainfall. Various weather systems such as tropical cyclones and weak disturbances contribute to monsoon rainfall (Ramage 1971). Among these systems, the most efficient rain-producing system is known as the Indian monsoon depression (hereafter MD). This MD is critical for monsoon rainfall because: (i) it occurs about six times during each summer monsoon season, (ii) it propagates deeply into the continent and produces large amounts of rainfall along its track, and (iii) about half of the monsoon rainfall is contributed to by the MDs (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Therefore, understanding various properties of the MD is a key towards comprehending the veracity of the Indian summer monsoon and especially its hydrological process.

  2. Linkages of Remote Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Mediated by the African Monsoon

    SciTech Connect

    Taraphdar, Sourav; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hagos, Samson M.

    2015-01-28

    Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Atlantic and Mediterranean (NAMED) can influence tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the tropical East Atlantic by modulating summer convection over western Africa. Analysis of 30 years of observations show that the NAMED SST is linked to a strengthening of the Saharan heat low and enhancement of moisture and moist static energy in the lower atmosphere over West Africa, which favors a northward displacement of the monsoonal front. These processes also lead to a northward shift of the African easterly jet that introduces an anomalous positive vorticity from western Africa to the main development region (50W–20E; 10N–20N) of Atlantic TC. By modulating multiple processes associated with the African monsoon, this study demonstrates that warm NAMED SST explains 8% of interannual variability of Atlantic TC frequency. Thus NAME SST may provide useful predictability for Atlantic TC activity on seasonal-to-interannual time scale.

  3. Evaluation of Dynamics of the West African Monsoon Jump Simulated by the MIT Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Im, Eun-Soon

    2015-04-01

    The seasonal advance and retreat of the West African monsoon behaves abrupt northward jump of maximum rainfall from the Guinean coast to the Sahel region. Both global and regional climate models have difficulties in accurately reproducing such a behavior due to its complexity combined the dynamical and physical processes. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) in simulating the West African monsoon. For this, 20-year long-term simulation (1989-2008) is performed using the ERAInterim reanalysis as the initial and boundary condition, and the analysis primarily focuses on the dynamics associated with abrupt phase transitions of the monsoon rainfall. We first examine detailed characteristics in terms of the onset, maximum, and retreat of the monsoon rainfall using daily precipitation. We then present the dynamical explanation behind rainfall variability from the analysis of the absolute vorticity near the tropopause and the meridional gradient of boundary-layer entropy within the dynamical theory proposed by Eltahir and Gong (1996). Acknowledgements : This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

  4. Tropospheric ozone variability during the monsoon season in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahamad, Fatimah; Latif, Mohd Talib

    2013-11-01

    Vertical ozone (O3) profiles obtained from ozonesondes launched at Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA), Malaysia were analyzed. Results of soundings between January to March 2011 and July to September 2011 are presented along with meteorological parameters (temperature and relative humidity (RH)). The overall O3 concentration range between the soundings made during the northeast monsoon (January - March) and the southwest monsoon (July - September) were not far from each other for altitudes below 8 km. However O3 variability is less pronounced between 2 km and 12 km during the southwest monsoon compared to the northeast monsoon season.

  5. Asian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability in General Circulation Models

    SciTech Connect

    Sperber, K R; Annamalai, H

    2004-02-24

    The goals of this report are: (1) Analyze boreal summer Asian monsoon intraseasonal variability general circulation models--How well do the models represent the eastward and northward propagating components of the convection and how well do the models represent the interactive control that the western tropical Pacific rainfall exerts on the rainfall over India and vice-versa? (2) Role of air-sea interactions--prescribed vs. interactive ocean; and (3) Mean monsoon vs. variability.

  6. Strengthened African summer monsoon in the mid-Piacenzian

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ran; Zhang, Zhongshi; Jiang, Dabang; Yan, Qing; Zhou, Xin; Cheng, Zhigang

    2016-09-01

    Using model results from the first phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) and four experiments with CAM4, the intensified African summer monsoon (ASM) in the mid-Piacenzian and corresponding mechanisms are analyzed. The results from PlioMIP show that the ASM intensified and summer precipitation increased in North Africa during the mid-Piacenzian, which can be explained by the increased net energy in the atmospheric column above North Africa. Further experiments with CAM4 indicated that the combined changes in the mid-Piacenzian of atmospheric CO2 concentration and SST, as well as the vegetation change, could have substantially increased the net energy in the atmospheric column over North Africa and further intensified the ASM. The experiments also demonstrated that topography change had a weak effect. Overall, the combined changes of atmospheric CO2 concentration and SST were the most important factor that brought about the intensified ASM in the mid-Piacenzian.

  7. Half-precessional dynamics of monsoon rainfall near the East African Equator.

    PubMed

    Verschuren, Dirk; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Moernaut, Jasper; Kristen, Iris; Blaauw, Maarten; Fagot, Maureen; Haug, Gerald H

    2009-12-01

    External climate forcings-such as long-term changes in solar insolation-generate different climate responses in tropical and high latitude regions. Documenting the spatial and temporal variability of past climates is therefore critical for understanding how such forcings are translated into regional climate variability. In contrast to the data-rich middle and high latitudes, high-quality climate-proxy records from equatorial regions are relatively few, especially from regions experiencing the bimodal seasonal rainfall distribution associated with twice-annual passage of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Here we present a continuous and well-resolved climate-proxy record of hydrological variability during the past 25,000 years from equatorial East Africa. Our results, based on complementary evidence from seismic-reflection stratigraphy and organic biomarker molecules in the sediment record of Lake Challa near Mount Kilimanjaro, reveal that monsoon rainfall in this region varied at half-precessional ( approximately 11,500-year) intervals in phase with orbitally controlled insolation forcing. The southeasterly and northeasterly monsoons that advect moisture from the western Indian Ocean were strengthened in alternation when the inter-hemispheric insolation gradient was at a maximum; dry conditions prevailed when neither monsoon was intensified and modest local March or September insolation weakened the rain season that followed. On sub-millennial timescales, the temporal pattern of hydrological change on the East African Equator bears clear high-northern-latitude signatures, but on the orbital timescale it mainly responded to low-latitude insolation forcing. Predominance of low-latitude climate processes in this monsoon region can be attributed to the low-latitude position of its continental regions of surface air flow convergence, and its relative isolation from the Atlantic Ocean, where prominent meridional overturning circulation more tightly couples low

  8. Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

    2016-08-01

    This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

  9. Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

    PubMed

    Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M

    2016-04-13

    The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ(18)O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

  10. Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales

    PubMed Central

    Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

    2016-01-01

    The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ18O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales. PMID:27071753

  11. Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

    PubMed

    Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M

    2016-01-01

    The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ(18)O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales. PMID:27071753

  12. Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

    2016-04-01

    The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ18O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

  13. Interannual and Interdecadal Variability of Thailand Summer Monsoon Season.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singhrattna, Nkrintra; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Krishna Kumar, K.; Clark, Martyn

    2005-06-01

    Summer monsoon rains are a critical factor in Thailand's water resources and agricultural planning and management. In fact, they have a significant impact on the country's economic health. Consequently, understanding the variability of the summer monsoon rains over Thailand is important for instituting effective mitigating strategies against extreme rainfall fluctuations. To this end, the authors systematically investigated the relationships between summer monsoon precipitation from the central and northern regions of Thailand and large-scale climate features. It was found that Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), in particular, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have a negative relationship with the summer monsoon rainfall over Thailand in recent decades. However, the relationship between summer rainfall and ENSO was weak prior to 1980. It is hypothesized that the ENSO teleconnection depends on the SST configuration in the tropical Pacific Ocean, that is, an eastern Pacific-based El Niño pattern, such as is the case in most of the post-1980 El Niño events, tends to place the descending limb of the Walker circulation over the Thailand-Indonesian region, thereby significantly reducing convection and consequently, rainfall over Thailand. It is believed that this recent shift in the Walker circulation is instrumental for the nonstationarity in ENSO-monsoon relationships in Thailand. El Niños of 1997 and 2002 corroborate this hypothesis. This has implications for monsoon rainfall forecasting and, consequently, for resources planning and management.

  14. Asian summer monsoon variability during the last two millennia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chawchai, Sakonvan; Chabangborn, Akkaneewut; Fritz, Sherilyn; Blaauw, Maarten; Löwemark, Ludvig; Reimer, Paula J.; Krusic, Paul J.; Väliranta, Minna; Mörth, Carl-Magnus; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2014-05-01

    The Southeast Asian mainland is located in the central path of the Asian summer monsoon, a region where paleoclimatic data are still sparse. Here we report a new detailed reconstruction of monsoon variability during the past 2000 years from a multi-proxy sediment record (TOC, C/N, δ13C, δ15N, Si, K, Ti elemental data, biogenic silica and fossil plant remains) from Lake Pa Kho in northeast Thailand. We infer a stronger summer monsoon between BC 200 - AD 400 and AD 800 - 1350, a weaker summer monsoon AD 400 - 800, and fluctuating moisture availability AD 1350 - 1550. Increased run-off after AD 1750 can be linked to agricultural intensification in the region. Placed in a wider context our high-resolution data set contributes important information regarding abrupt shifts in hydroclimatic conditions, spatial patterns of monsoon variability, and variations in the position of the ITCZ across SE Asia during the last two millennia. These paleoclimatic shifts may have contributed to the rise and fall of Iron Age and Khmer societies.

  15. East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability since the last deglaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Fahu; Xu, Qinghai; Chen, Jianhui; Birks, H. John B.; Liu, Jianbao; Zhang, Xiaojian; Jin, Liya

    2016-04-01

    The lack of a precisely-dated, unequivocal climate proxy from northern China, where precipitation variability is traditionally considered as an East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) indicator, impedes our understanding of the behaviour and dynamics of the EASM. Here we present a well-dated, pollen-based, ~20-yr-resolution quantitative precipitation reconstruction (derived using a transfer function) from an alpine lake in North China, which provides for the first time a direct record of EASM evolution since 14.7 ka (ka=thousands of years before present, where the "present" is defined as the year AD 1950). Our record reveals a gradually intensifying monsoon from 14.7-7.0 ka, a maximum monsoon (30% higher precipitation than present) from ~7.8-5.3 ka, and a rapid decline since ~3.3 ka. These insolation-driven EASM trends were punctuated by two millennial-scale weakening events which occurred synchronously to the cold Younger Dryas and at ~9.5-8.5 ka, and by two centennial-scale intervals of enhanced (weakened) monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (Little Ice Age). Our precipitation reconstruction, consistent with temperature changes but quite different from the prevailing view of EASM evolution, points to strong internal feedback processes driving the EASM, and may aid our understanding of future monsoon behaviour under ongoing anthropogenic climate change.

  16. East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability since the last deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Chen, Fahu; Xu, Qinghai; Chen, Jianhui; Birks, H John B; Liu, Jianbao; Zhang, Shengrui; Jin, Liya; An, Chengbang; Telford, Richard J; Cao, Xianyong; Wang, Zongli; Zhang, Xiaojian; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Lu, Houyuan; Li, Yuecong; Zheng, Zhuo; Wang, Haipeng; Zhou, Aifeng; Dong, Guanghui; Zhang, Jiawu; Huang, Xiaozhong; Bloemendal, Jan; Rao, Zhiguo

    2015-01-01

    The lack of a precisely-dated, unequivocal climate proxy from northern China, where precipitation variability is traditionally considered as an East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) indicator, impedes our understanding of the behaviour and dynamics of the EASM. Here we present a well-dated, pollen-based, ~20-yr-resolution quantitative precipitation reconstruction (derived using a transfer function) from an alpine lake in North China, which provides for the first time a direct record of EASM evolution since 14.7 ka (ka = thousands of years before present, where the "present" is defined as the year AD 1950). Our record reveals a gradually intensifying monsoon from 14.7-7.0 ka, a maximum monsoon (30% higher precipitation than present) from ~7.8-5.3 ka, and a rapid decline since ~3.3 ka. These insolation-driven EASM trends were punctuated by two millennial-scale weakening events which occurred synchronously to the cold Younger Dryas and at ~9.5-8.5 ka, and by two centennial-scale intervals of enhanced (weakened) monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (Little Ice Age). Our precipitation reconstruction, consistent with temperature changes but quite different from the prevailing view of EASM evolution, points to strong internal feedback processes driving the EASM, and may aid our understanding of future monsoon behaviour under ongoing anthropogenic climate change.

  17. East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability since the last deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Chen, Fahu; Xu, Qinghai; Chen, Jianhui; Birks, H John B; Liu, Jianbao; Zhang, Shengrui; Jin, Liya; An, Chengbang; Telford, Richard J; Cao, Xianyong; Wang, Zongli; Zhang, Xiaojian; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Lu, Houyuan; Li, Yuecong; Zheng, Zhuo; Wang, Haipeng; Zhou, Aifeng; Dong, Guanghui; Zhang, Jiawu; Huang, Xiaozhong; Bloemendal, Jan; Rao, Zhiguo

    2015-01-01

    The lack of a precisely-dated, unequivocal climate proxy from northern China, where precipitation variability is traditionally considered as an East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) indicator, impedes our understanding of the behaviour and dynamics of the EASM. Here we present a well-dated, pollen-based, ~20-yr-resolution quantitative precipitation reconstruction (derived using a transfer function) from an alpine lake in North China, which provides for the first time a direct record of EASM evolution since 14.7 ka (ka = thousands of years before present, where the "present" is defined as the year AD 1950). Our record reveals a gradually intensifying monsoon from 14.7-7.0 ka, a maximum monsoon (30% higher precipitation than present) from ~7.8-5.3 ka, and a rapid decline since ~3.3 ka. These insolation-driven EASM trends were punctuated by two millennial-scale weakening events which occurred synchronously to the cold Younger Dryas and at ~9.5-8.5 ka, and by two centennial-scale intervals of enhanced (weakened) monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (Little Ice Age). Our precipitation reconstruction, consistent with temperature changes but quite different from the prevailing view of EASM evolution, points to strong internal feedback processes driving the EASM, and may aid our understanding of future monsoon behaviour under ongoing anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26084560

  18. East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability since the last deglaciation

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Fahu; Xu, Qinghai; Chen, Jianhui; Birks, H. John B.; Liu, Jianbao; Zhang, Shengrui; Jin, Liya; An, Chengbang; Telford, Richard J.; Cao, Xianyong; Wang, Zongli; Zhang, Xiaojian; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Lu, Houyuan; Li, Yuecong; Zheng, Zhuo; Wang, Haipeng; Zhou, Aifeng; Dong, Guanghui; Zhang, Jiawu; Huang, Xiaozhong; Bloemendal, Jan; Rao, Zhiguo

    2015-01-01

    The lack of a precisely-dated, unequivocal climate proxy from northern China, where precipitation variability is traditionally considered as an East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) indicator, impedes our understanding of the behaviour and dynamics of the EASM. Here we present a well-dated, pollen-based, ~20-yr-resolution quantitative precipitation reconstruction (derived using a transfer function) from an alpine lake in North China, which provides for the first time a direct record of EASM evolution since 14.7 ka (ka = thousands of years before present, where the “present” is defined as the year AD 1950). Our record reveals a gradually intensifying monsoon from 14.7–7.0 ka, a maximum monsoon (30% higher precipitation than present) from ~7.8–5.3 ka, and a rapid decline since ~3.3 ka. These insolation-driven EASM trends were punctuated by two millennial-scale weakening events which occurred synchronously to the cold Younger Dryas and at ~9.5–8.5 ka, and by two centennial-scale intervals of enhanced (weakened) monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (Little Ice Age). Our precipitation reconstruction, consistent with temperature changes but quite different from the prevailing view of EASM evolution, points to strong internal feedback processes driving the EASM, and may aid our understanding of future monsoon behaviour under ongoing anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26084560

  19. Dry intrusions in the West African monsoon mid-troposphere during the AMMA experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deme, A.; Roca, R.

    2009-04-01

    Mid-troposphere dry air patches (RH < 10%) have been recently detected over the African monsoon region and in particular over Sahel. At 500 hPa, these dry air features are thought to play a complex role onto convection: inhibition isolated convective cells but favouring already organized convection by feeding rear-inflow currents with dry air. The inhibiting action of the dry air onto convection comes from the temperature inversion induced by radiation at the bottom of the dry layer and/or by entrainment of dry air in ascending parcel that decreases its buoyancy. The organizing effect is associated to mesoscale currents within and around long lasting squall lines. This mid-tropospheric dry air has been shown to originate from the mid-latitudes upper level jets, therefore coined extra-tropical dry intrusions.Among all the forcings that control the dynamics of the West African monsoon, the role of a dry mid-troposphere needs to be clarified. The present study is dedicated to this objective and it is focused on extra-tropical dry air intrusions in the West African mid-troposphere during the AMMA campaign. The low level dynamics is documented (African Easterly Jet, African Easterly Wave) thanks to the NCEP operational analysis. It is completed by the radiosondes especially for the temperature and water vapor distribution. Back-trajectory are computed in order to highlight the origin of the tropospheric air mass. Finally Meteosat Second Generation derived water vapor and cloud and rainfall parameters are used to characterize the convective activity and its moist environment. Dry intrusions in the African mid troposphere during the summer 2006 have been shown to be associated with two major modes of occurrences: a 40-50 days mode and a 10-20 days mode. The long mode exhibits negative anomaly of the rainfall and a very large scale structure covering the whole West Africa region when occurring while the short mode is more restricted to the Sahelian longitude. Similarly

  20. A solar variability driven monsoon see-saw: switching relationships of the Holocene East Asian-Australian summer monsoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eroglu, Deniz; Ozken, Ibrahim; McRobie, Fiona; Stemler, Thomas; Marwan, Norbert; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Kurths, Juergen

    2016-04-01

    The East Asian-Indonesian-Australian monsoon is the predominant low latitude monsoon system, providing a major global scale heat source. Here we apply newly developed non-linear time series techniques on speleothem climate proxies, from eastern China and northwestern Australia and establish relationships between the two summer monsoon regimes over the last ˜9000 years. We identify significant variations in monsoonal activity, both dry and wet phases, at millennial to multi-centennial time scales and demonstrate for the first time the existence of a see-saw antiphase relationship between the two regional monsoon systems. Our analysis attributes this inter-hemispheric linkage to the solar variability that is effecting both monsoon systems.

  1. Spatiotemporal variability of rainfall extremes in monsoonal climates - examples from the South American Monsoon and the Indian Monsoon Systems (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bookhagen, B.; Boers, N.; Marwan, N.; Malik, N.; Kurths, J.

    2013-12-01

    Monsoonal rainfall is the crucial component for more than half of the world's population. Runoff associated with monsoon systems provide water resources for agriculture, hydropower, drinking-water generation, recreation, and social well-being and are thus a fundamental part of human society. However, monsoon systems are highly stochastic and show large variability on various timescales. Here, we use various rainfall datasets to characterize spatiotemporal rainfall patterns using traditional as well as new approaches emphasizing nonlinear spatial correlations from a complex networks perspective. Our analyses focus on the South American (SAMS) and Indian (ISM) Monsoon Systems on the basis of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) using precipitation radar and passive-microwave products with horizontal spatial resolutions of ~5x5 km^2 (products 2A25, 2B31) and 25x25 km^2 (3B42) and interpolated rainfall-gauge data for the ISM (APHRODITE, 25x25 km^2). The eastern slopes of the Andes of South America and the southern front of the Himalaya are characterized by significant orographic barriers that intersect with the moisture-bearing, monsoonal wind systems. We demonstrate that topography exerts a first-order control on peak rainfall amounts on annual timescales in both mountain belts. Flooding in the downstream regions is dominantly caused by heavy rainfall storms that propagate deep into the mountain range and reach regions that are arid and without vegetation cover promoting rapid runoff. These storms exert a significantly different spatial distribution than average-rainfall conditions and assessing their recurrence intervals and prediction is key in understanding flooding for these regions. An analysis of extreme-value distributions of our high-spatial resolution data reveal that semi-arid areas are characterized by low-frequency/high-magnitude events (i.e., are characterized by a ';heavy tail' distribution), whereas regions with high mean annual rainfall have a

  2. Ecosystem Response to Monsoon Rainfall Variability in Southwestern North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Feyen, Luc; Vivoni, Enrique

    2013-04-01

    Due to its marked plant phenology driven by precipitation, the North American Monsoon System (NAMS) can serve to reveal ecological responses to climate variability and change in water-controlled regions. This study attempts to elucidate the effects of monsoon rainfall variability on vegetation dynamics over the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) tier I domain (20°-35° N, 105°-115° W). To this end, we analyze long-term dynamics (1982-2004) in seasonal precipitation (Pr), net primary production (NPP) and rain-use efficiency (RUE) based on phenological and biophysical memory metrics from NOAA CPC daily 1° gridded precipitation data and satellite GIMMS semi-monthly NDVI images at 8-km resolution. We focus our analysis on six diverse ecosystems spanning from semi-arid and desert environments to tropical deciduous forests to investigate: 1) the spatially averaged NPP/RUE profiles along the regional Pr gradient, 2) the linkage between NPP and Pr inter-annual variations and 3) the long-term trends of Pr, NPP and RUE. All the biomes show an increase (decrease) in mean NPP (RUE) along the mean seasonal precipitation gradient ranging from 100 to 900 mm. Variations in NPP/RUE profiles differ strongly across ecosystems and show threshold behaviors likely resulting from different physiological responses to climate effects and landscape features. Statistical analysis suggests that the inter-annual variability in NPP is significantly related to the temporal variability in precipitation. In particular, we found that forest biomes are more sensitive to inter-annual variations in precipitation regimes. Semi-arid ecosystems appear to be more resilient, probably because they are more exposed to extreme conditions and consequently better adapted to greater inter and intra-annual climate variability. The long-term positive signal in RUE imposed on its inter-annual variability, which results from a constant NPP under negative long-term trends of Pr, indicates an improved

  3. Space-Time Structure of Monsoon Interannual Variability.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terray, Pascal

    1995-11-01

    The analysis of corrected ship reports [sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature (AT)] and corrected land data (SLP, AT, rainfall) in the Indian sector reveals the existence of two low-frequency modes of monsoon variability during the 1900-1970 period. A definite biennial (B) mode exists on the SLP fields. This B oscillation is unambiguously linked with a southwest-northeast SLP anomaly gradient. During the summer monsoon, the B SLP pattern can be interpreted as an expansion/contraction of the monsoon activity since this mode is strongly coupled with rainfall variations over peninsular India. A strong low-frequency (LF) mode with period spanning 4-6 years is also seen on SLP fields over the Indian Ocean and subcontinent. The variance associated with this band is typically more important than the one observed for the B mode, and its spatial mark is also strikingly different since it is linked with a global pattern of variation. This mode has also a strong influence on the Indian summer rainfall fluctuations, particularly on the Ghats and in the Indo-Gangetic plains.The amplitude of these oscillations varies widely during the 1900-1970 period. The LF mode is well defined during 1900-1923 and 1947-1970. There is a tendency for the energy associated with the B mode to decrease on the land while it increases over the Indian Ocean during the whole 1900-1970 interval.Although these two timescales exist also on SST fields, cross-spectral analysis shows that ocean-atmosphere interactions are much stronger at the B timescale. This result stresses the B nature of the monsoon system.The existence of these interannual signals in the Indian areas where the annual cycle is so strong raises difficult problems: How can climatic anomalies persist for several years in spite of strong seasonality? Or, still more intriguing, how can be explained the persistence of climatic anomalies during one year and the appearance of opposite sign climatic anomalies

  4. Pleistocene Indian Monsoon rainfall variability dominated by obliquity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebregiorgis, D.; Hathorne, E. C.; Giosan, L.; Collett, T. S.; Nuernberg, D.; Frank, M.

    2015-12-01

    The past variability of the Indian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea while Quaternary proxy records of Indian monsoon precipitation are still lacking. Here we utilize scanning x-ray fluorescence (XRF) data from a sediment core obtained by the IODP vessel JOIDES Resolution in the Andaman Sea (Site 17) to investigate changes in sediment supply from the peak monsoon precipitation regions to the core site. We use Ti/Ca and K/Rb ratios to trace changes in terrigenous flux and weathering regime, respectively, while Zr/Rb ratios suggest grain size variations. The age model of Site 17 is based on correlation of benthic C. wuellerstorfi/C. mundulus δ18O data to the LR04 global benthic δ18O stack at a resolution of ~3 kyr (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) for the last 2 Myrs. In its youngest part the age model is supported by five 14C ages on planktic foraminifera and the youngest Toba ash layer (Ali et al., 2015) resulting in a nearly constant sedimentation rate of ~6.5 cm/kyr. Frequency analysis of the 4 mm resolution Ti/Ca, K/Rb, and Zr/Rb time series using the REDFIT program (Schulz and Mudelsee, 2002), reveals the three main Milankovitch orbital cycles above the 90% confidence level. Depth domain spectral analysis reveals the presence of significant cyclicity at wavelengths of 28.5 and 2.8 m corresponding to the ~400 kyr and ~41 kyr cycles, respectively, during the last 2 Myr. These records suggest that Indian monsoon variability has varied in the obliquity and eccentricity bands, the latter in particular after the mid Pleistocene transition (MPT), while strong precession forcing is lacking in this super-high resolution record. Northern summer insolation and Southern Hemisphere latent heat export are out of phase during precessional cycles, but in phase in the obliquity band, which indicates that Indian monsoon precipitation has likely been more sensitive to both NH pull and SH push mechanisms (Clemens and Prell, 2003). References Ali

  5. Sst and Ghg Impacts On The West African Monsoon Climate: A Superensemble Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paeth, H.; Hense, A.

    West African rainfall has been subject to large interdecadal variations during the 20th century. The most prominent feature is a negative trend in annual precipitation after 1960, causing severe drought in the Sahel region and the southern part of West Africa, with some recoverage in recent years. We examine and quantify the influence of ob- served SST changes on low-frequency variability over the subcontinent and compare it with the additional impact of increasing GHG concentrations, as revealed by a su- perensemble of SST-driven experiments. SST is largely responsible for decadal and longer-term variability over the southern part of West Africa, accounting for almost 80 % of monsoonal rainfall variance. The additional impact of the enhanced green- house effect is weak but statistically significant by the year 1980, obviously associ- ated with a positive trend in annual precipitation. This positive trend is also found in GHG-induced coupled climate model projection into the future. The CO2 signal is again weak but statistically significant and consistent with different climate models, as revealed by a superensemble of coupled experiments.

  6. Principal modes of Asian summer monsoon variability: Detection and changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yasutomi, N.; Kimoto, M.

    2009-12-01

    Principal modes of Asian summer monsoon variability are identified. By using vertically integrated moisture flux, principal modes represent better separation than commonly used variables such as rainfall, winds and outgoing longwave radiation. An empirical orthogonal function of vertically integrated moisture flux within the South, Southeast and East Asia during summertime is analysed. Results of various analyses let us convince that the first and second EOFs of the moisture flux are the principal modes of the Asian monsoon variability. In summer, there are two modes dominant in the Asian monsoon region; one consists of low-level circulation over the subtropical western Pacific near Philippines and associated convective dipole centers located over the western Pacific and Indonesia. The other consists of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal and the Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern, called ENSO-PJ mixed mode. This pattern is detected as the first EOF mode of a simulation with an atmospheric general circulation model giving the climatological mean sea surface temperature. Furthermore, the pattern is dominant in both present climate simulation and global warming simulation using coupled GCM. A projected change shows increasing of precipitation over South China and Japan. The Pacific-Indo dipole pattern is found out to be excited without external forcing like a specific sea surface temperature anomaly. Moreover, the Pacific-Indo dipole pattern appears as the preferred structure of variability by giving small perturbations to a three-dimensionally varying basic state in summertime by using a linear baroclinic model. Factors of the basic state which help to excite and maintain the Pacific-Indo dipole pattern are examined. Free, stationary Rossby waves can be excited in the region of low-level westerly extending from the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea which blows as a part of the monsoonal flow in summer. Rossby waves at the eastern end of the low-level westerly where

  7. Interannual variability of the Indian monsoon and the Southern Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, M.; Hastenrath, S.

    1986-01-01

    Years with abundant Southwest monsoon rainfall in India are characterized by anomalously low pressure over South Asia and the adjacent waters, enhanced cross-equatorial flow in the western, and increased cloudiness over the northern portion of the Indian Ocean, continuing from the pre-monsoon through the post-monsoon season; positive temperature anomalies over land and in the Arabian Sea in the pre-monsoon season, changing to negative departures after the monsoon onset. The following causality chain is suggested: the anomalously warm surfaces of south Asia and the adjacent ocean in the pre-monsoon season induce a thermal low, thus enhancing the northward directed pressure gradient, and favoring a vigorous cross-equatorial flow over the Indian Ocean. After the monsoon onset the land surfaces are cooled by evaporation, and the Arabian Sea surface waters by various wind stress effects. However, latent heat release over South Asia can now maintain the meridional topography gradients essential to the monsoon circulation. The positive phase of the Southern Oscillation (high pressure over the Eastern South Pacific) is associated with circulation departures in the Indian Ocean sector similar to those characteristic of years with abundant India monsoon rainfall. Abundant rainfall over India during the northern summer monsoon leads the positive mode of the southern Oscillation, and this in turn leads Java rainfall, whose peak is timed about half a year after that of India. A rising Southern Oscillation tendency presages abundant India Southwest Monsoon rainfall but a late monsoon onset. 46 references, 9 figures, 4 tables.

  8. West African Monsoon dynamics in idealized simulations: the competitive roles of SST warming and CO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaetani, Marco; Flamant, Cyrille; Hourdin, Frederic; Bastin, Sophie; Braconnot, Pascale; Bony, Sandrine

    2015-04-01

    The West African Monsoon (WAM) is affected by large climate variability at different timescales, from interannual to multidecadal, with strong environmental and socio-economic impacts associated to climate-related rainfall variability, especially in the Sahelian belt. State-of-the-art coupled climate models still show poor ability in correctly simulating the WAM past variability and also a large spread is observed in future climate projections. In this work, the July-to-September (JAS) WAM variability in the period 1979-2008 is studied in AMIP-like simulations (SST-forced) from CMIP5. The individual roles of global SST warming and CO2 concentration increasing are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4K warmer SST and a 4x CO2 concentration, respectively. Results show a dry response in Sahel to SST warming, with dryer conditions over western Sahel. On the contrary, wet conditions are observed when CO2 is increased, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel. The precipitation changes are associated to modifications in the regional atmospheric circulation: dry (wet) conditions are associated with reduced (increased) convergence in the lower troposphere, a southward (northward) shift of the African Easterly Jet, and a weaker (stronger) Tropical Easterly Jet. The co-variability between global SST and WAM precipitation is also investigated, highlighting a reorganization of the main co-variability modes. Namely, in the 4xCO2 simulation the influence of Tropical Pacific is dominant, while it is reduced in the 4K simulation, which also shows an increased coupling with the eastern Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The above results suggest a competitive action of SST warming and CO2 increasing on the WAM climate variability, with opposite effects on precipitation. The combination of the observed positive and negative response in precipitation, with wet conditions in central-eastern Sahel and dry conditions in western Sahel, is consistent with the

  9. Asian Monsoon Variability from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) and Links to Indo-Pacific Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Anchukaitis, Kevin; Hernandez, Manuel; Buckley, Brendan; Cook, Edward

    2014-05-01

    Drought patterns across monsoon and temperate Asia over the period 1877-2005 are linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) composed of a high-resolution network of hydroclimatically sensitive tree-ring records with a focus on the June-August months, spatial drought patterns during El Niño and IOD events are assessed as to their agreement with an instrumental drought index and consistency in the drought response amongst ENSO/IOD events. Spatial characteristics in drought patterns are related to regional climate anomalies over the Indo-Pacific basin, using reanalysis products, including changes in the Asian monsoon systems, zonal Walker circulation, moisture fluxes, and precipitation. A weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia during El Niño events, along with anomalous subsidence over monsoon Asia and reduced moisture flux, is reflected in anomalous drought conditions over India, Southeast Asia and Indonesia. When an IOD event co-occurs with an El Niño, severe drought conditions identified in the MADA for Southeast Asia, Indonesia, eastern China and central Asia are associated with a weakened South Asian monsoon, reduced moisture flux over China, and anomalous divergent flow and subsidence over Indonesia. Variations in the strength of the South Asian monsoon can also be linked to the Strange Parallels Drought (1756-1768) affecting much of Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent in the mid-18th Century. Large-scale climate anomalies across the wider region during years with an anomalously strengthened/weakened South Asian monsoon are discussed with implications for severe droughts prior to the instrumental period. Insights into the relative influences of Pacific and Indian Ocean variability for Asian monsoon climate on interannual to decadal and longer timescales, as recorded in the

  10. Spatio-temporal evolution of the West African monsoon during the last deglaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weldeab, Syee; Frank, Martin; Stichel, Torben; Haley, Brian; Sangen, Mark

    2011-07-01

    On the basis of a multi-proxy data set from the Gulf of Guinea (eastern equatorial Atlantic) we reconstruct the spatio-temporal evolution of the West African monsoon (WAM) and present evidence for a decoupling between latitudinal shifts of the rain belt and WAM intensification. The onset of deglacial monsoon invigoration at ˜16,600 years before present lagged northward migration of a weak rainfall zone by ˜2800 years. Conversely, during the Younger Dryas (YD) time interval, WAM precipitation was severely reduced but we find no evidence for a large-scale retreat of the rainfall front. This observation is not in agreement with the hypothesis of a large-scale shift of the intertropical convergence zone south of the tropical WAM region during the YD. Our results can be better reconciled with the newly emerging concept of a strong influence of Tropical Easterly and African Easterly Jets on modern WAM.

  11. Skill, reproducibility and potential predictability of the West African monsoon in coupled GCMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Philippon, N.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Ruti, P. M.

    2010-07-01

    In the framework of the ENSEMBLES FP6 project, an ensemble prediction system based on five different state-of-the-art European coupled models has been developed. This study evaluates the performance of these models for forecasting the West African monsoon (WAM) at the monthly time scale. From simulations started the 1 May of each year and covering the period 1991-2001, the reproducibility and potential predictability (PP) of key parameters of the WAM—rainfall, zonal and meridional wind at four levels from the surface to 200 hPa, and specific humidity, from July to September—are assessed. The Sahelian rainfall mode of variability is not accurately reproduced contrary to the Guinean rainfall one: the correlation between observations (from CMAP) and the multi-model ensemble mean is 0.17 and 0.55, respectively. For the Sahelian mode, the correlation is consistent with a low PP of about ~6%. The PP of the Guinean mode is higher, ~44% suggesting a stronger forcing of the sea surface temperature on rainfall variability over this region. Parameters relative to the atmospheric dynamics are on average much more skillful and reproducible than rainfall. Among them, the first mode of variability of the zonal wind at 200 hPa that depicts the Tropical Easterly Jet, is correlated at 0.79 with its “observed” counterpart (from the NCEP/DOE2 reanalyses) and has a PP of 39%. Moreover, models reproduce the correlations between all the atmospheric dynamics parameters and the Sahelian rainfall in a satisfactory way. In that context, a statistical adaptation of the atmospheric dynamic forecasts, using a linear regression model with the leading principal components of the atmospheric dynamical parameters studied, leads to moderate receiver operating characteristic area under the curve and correlation skill scores for the Sahelian rainfall. These scores are however much higher than those obtained using the modelled rainfall.

  12. Instrumental evidence of an unusually strong West African Monsoon in the 19th century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallego, David; Ordoñez, Paulina; Ribera, Pedro; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Vega, Inmaculada; Gomez, Francisco de Paula

    2016-04-01

    The precipitation in the Sahel -which is mainly controlled by the dynamics of the West African Monsoon-, has been in the spot of the climate community for the last three decades due to the persistence of the drought period that started in the 1970s. Unfortunately, reliable meteorological series in this area are only available since the beginning of the 20th Century, thus limiting our understanding of the significance of this period from a long term perspective. Currently, our knowledge of what happened in times previous to the 20th Century essentially relies in documentary or proxy sources. In this work, we present the first instrumental evidence of a 50 year-long period characterised by an unusually strong West African monsoon in the19th Century. Following the recent advances in the generation of climatic indices based on data from ship's logbooks, we used historical wind observations to compute a new index (the so-called ASWI) for characterising the strength of the West African Monsoon. The ASWI is based in the persistence of the southwesterly winds in the [29°W-17°W;7°N-13°N] area and it has been possible to compute it since 1790 for July and since 1839 for August and September. We show that the ASWI is a reliable measure of the monsoon's strength and the Sahelian rainfall. Our new series clearly shows the well-known drought period starting in the 1970s. During this dry period, the West African Monsoon was particularly weak and interestingly, we found that since then, the correlations with different climatic patterns such as the Pacific and Atlantic "El Niño" changed significantly in relation to those of the previous century. Remarkably, our results also show that the period 1839-1890 was characterised by an unusually strong and persistent monsoon. Notwithstanding, two of the few dry years within this period were concurrent with large volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere. This latter result supports the recently suggested relationship between major

  13. The West African monsoon: Contribution of the AMMA multidisciplinary programme to the study of a regional climate system.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lebel, T.; Janicot, S.; Redelsperger, J. L.; Parker, D. J.; Thorncroft, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    The AMMA international project aims at improving our knowledge and understanding of the West African monsoon and its variability with an emphasis on daily-to-interannual timescales. AMMA is motivated by an interest in fundamental scientific issues and by the societal need for improved prediction of the WAM and its impacts on water resources, health and food security for West African nations. The West African monsoon (WAM) has a distinctive annual cycle in rainfall that remains a challenge to understand and predict. The location of peak rainfall, which resides in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the year, moves from the ocean to the land in boreal spring. Around the end of June there is a rapid shift in the location of peak rainfall between the coast and around 10°N where it remains until about the end of August. In September the peak rainfall returns equatorward at a relatively steady pace and is located over the ocean again by November. The fact that the peak rainfall migrates irregularly compared to the peak solar heating is due to the interactions that occur between the land, the atmosphere and the ocean. To gain a better understanding of this complex climate system, a large international research programme was launched in 2002, the biggest of its kind into environment and climate ever attempted in Africa. AMMA has involved a comprehensive field experiment bringing together ocean, land and atmospheric measurements, on timescales ranging from hourly and daily variability up to the changes in seasonal activity over a number of years. This presentation will focus on the description of the field programme and its accomplishments, and address some key questions that have been recently identified to form the core of AMMA-Phase 2.

  14. The West African monsoon: Contribution of the AMMA multidisciplinary programme to the study of a regional climate system.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lebel, T.; Janicot, S.; Redelsperger, J. L.; Parker, D. J.; Thorncroft, C. D.

    2014-12-01

    The AMMA international project aims at improving our knowledge and understanding of the West African monsoon and its variability with an emphasis on daily-to-interannual timescales. AMMA is motivated by an interest in fundamental scientific issues and by the societal need for improved prediction of the WAM and its impacts on water resources, health and food security for West African nations. The West African monsoon (WAM) has a distinctive annual cycle in rainfall that remains a challenge to understand and predict. The location of peak rainfall, which resides in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the year, moves from the ocean to the land in boreal spring. Around the end of June there is a rapid shift in the location of peak rainfall between the coast and around 10°N where it remains until about the end of August. In September the peak rainfall returns equatorward at a relatively steady pace and is located over the ocean again by November. The fact that the peak rainfall migrates irregularly compared to the peak solar heating is due to the interactions that occur between the land, the atmosphere and the ocean. To gain a better understanding of this complex climate system, a large international research programme was launched in 2002, the biggest of its kind into environment and climate ever attempted in Africa. AMMA has involved a comprehensive field experiment bringing together ocean, land and atmospheric measurements, on timescales ranging from hourly and daily variability up to the changes in seasonal activity over a number of years. This presentation will focus on the description of the field programme and its accomplishments, and address some key questions that have been recently identified to form the core of AMMA-Phase 2.

  15. Holocene Climatic Variability in the Indian Monsoon Domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Praveen Kumar; Anoop, Ambili; Menzel, Philip; Gaye, Birgit; Basavaiah, Nathani; Jehangir, Arshid; Prasad, Sushma

    2013-04-01

    The available data on Holocene climate variability from Asia indicates spatio-temporal changes in the precipitation over this vast region. Detailed information on the timing, duration, regionality, and causes of these fluctuations is not well understood, especially over the Indian subcontinent. My work focuses on long core sediments from lake Tso Moriri (78°14'-78°25'N and 32°40'-33°02'E; altitude: 4500 m) situated in climatically sensitive zone of NW Himalayas affected by both mid-latitude westerlies and Indian summer monsoon. Two cores ca.7 m were retrieved from the lake at different water depths (ca. 40m and 105m) in July 2011. Investigations reveal marked changes in grain size, lamination quality, mineralogy, organic and carbonate content suggesting changes in lake level, direction of inflow, and biological productivity that in turn are influenced by regional climate. As the lake lies in a tectonically active region, I have also undertaken detailed geomorphometric (knick-point, Hack index), and drainage pattern analysis of the major inflowing streams to decipher the active tectonics in the region. Sharp changes in river course and slope gradient indicates the presence of an active N-S trending fault in western flank of the lake. The data from lake Tso Moriri will be compared with other high-resolution records from lake Lonar and stalagmites in NE India to reconstruct the forcing mechanism of Holocene climatic variability.

  16. 155,000 years of West African monsoon and ocean thermal evolution.

    PubMed

    Weldeab, Syee; Lea, David W; Schneider, Ralph R; Andersen, Nils

    2007-06-01

    A detailed reconstruction of West African monsoon hydrology over the past 155,000 years suggests a close linkage to northern high-latitude climate oscillations. Ba/Ca ratio and oxygen isotope composition of planktonic foraminifera in a marine sediment core from the Gulf of Guinea, in the eastern equatorial Atlantic (EEA), reveal centennial-scale variations of riverine freshwater input that are synchronous with northern high-latitude stadials and interstadials of the penultimate interglacial and the last deglaciation. EEA Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were decoupled from northern high-latitude millennial-scale fluctuation and primarily responded to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and low-latitude solar insolation. The onset of enhanced monsoon precipitation lags behind the changes in EEA SSTs by up to 7000 years during glacial-interglacial transitions. This study demonstrates that the stadial-interstadial and deglacial climate instability of the northern high latitudes exerts dominant control on the West African monsoon dynamics through an atmospheric linkage. PMID:17540896

  17. Influence of Arctic sea-ice and greenhouse gas concentration change on the West African Monsoon.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    The Sahelian precipitation are projected to increase in the CNRM-CM5 coupled climate model due to a strengthening of the land-Sea temperature gradient, the increase in the North Atlantic temperature and the deepening of the Heat Low. Arctic Sea-Ice loss impacts the low-level atmospheric circulation through a decrease in the northward heat transport. Some authors have linked the sea-ice loss to a poleward shift of the InterTropical Convergence Zone. Within the CMIP5 models the effect of these mechanisms are not distinguishable and it is difficult to understand the effect of the Arctic sea-ice loss on the West African Monsoon so far. We performed several sensitivity experiments with the CNRM-CM5 coupled climate models by modifying the arctic sea-ice extent and/or the greenhouse gas concentration. We then investigated separately the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss and greenhouse gas concentration increases on the West African Monsoon. The increase in greenhouse gas explains the northward shift and the strengthening of the monsoon. Its effect is stronger with a sea-ice free Arctic that leads to an increase in North Atlantic temperature and in Sahelian precipitation at the end of the rainy season (September-October). We argue that the decrease in sea-ice extent, in the context of the global warming, may moistens the Sahel during the rainy season by changing the pressure, winds and moisture fluxes at low-level.

  18. Regional Climate Modeling of West African Summer Monsoon Climate: Impact of Historical Boundary Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kebe, I.

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we analyze and intercompare the performance of an ensemble of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) driven by three set of Global Climate Models (GCMs), in reproducing seasonal mean climatologies with their annual cycle and the key features of West African summer monsoon over 20 years period (1985-2004) during the present day. The results show that errors in lateral boundary conditions from the GCM members, have an unexpected way on the skill of the RCMs in reproducing regional climate features such as the West African Monsoon features and the annual cycle of precipitation and temperature in terms of outperforming the GCM simulation. It also shows the occurrence of the West African Monsoon jump, the intensification and northward shift of the Saharan Heat Low (SHL) as expressed in some RCMs than the GCMs. Most RCMs also capture the mean annual cycle of precipitation and temperature, including, single and double-peaked during the summer months, in terms of events and amplitude. In a series of RCMs and GCMs experiments between the Sahara region and equatorial Africa, the presence of strong positive meridional temperature gradients at the surface and a strong meridional gradients in the potential temperatures near the surface are obvious, indicating the region of strong vertical shear development enough to establish easterly flow such as the African easterly jet. In addition, the isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) gradient decreases northward in the lower troposphere across northern Africa, with the maximum reversal on the 315-K surface. The region with negative IPV gradient favors the potential instability which has been associated with the growth of easterly waves.

  19. Understanding the mechanisms behind the West African Monsoon northward extension during Mid-Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaetani, Marco; Messori, Gabriele; Zhang, Qiong; Flamant, Cyrille; Evan, Amato T.; Pausata, Francesco S. R.

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the West African monsoon (WAM) dynamics in the mid-Holocene (MH) is a crucial issue in climate modelling, because numerical models typically fail to reproduce the extensive precipitation suggested by proxy evidence. This discrepancy is largely due to unrealistic imposed land surface cover and aerosols. Numerical experiments are conducted by imposing a "green Sahara", along with a reduced dust concentration in the atmosphere, coherently with the MH environment in the region, and the atmospheric dynamics response and impact on precipitation are investigated. The response of the WAM system to the imposed conditions shows a dramatic augmentation of the precipitation across West Africa up to the Mediterranean coast. This follows a substantial reorganization of the regional circulation, with some monsoonal circulation features (Saharan heat low, African easterly jet, African easterly waves) weakened in favour of deep convection development over land. The simulated response is dominated by land cover changes, and the reduction in dust concentration further enhances the changes induced by the "green Sahara". The intensity and meridional extent of the WAM is fully consistent with proxy evidence. The results for the MH WAM present important implications for understanding future climate scenarios in the region, in the perspective of projected wetter conditions in West Africa.

  20. Circulation Regimes of Rainfall Anomalies in the African-South Asian Monsoon Belt.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatt, Uma S.

    1989-10-01

    This study explores the spatial differentiation of climate anomalies and associated circulation mechanisms across the African-South Asian monsoon belt through empirical analyses mainly for the period 1948-83. Observations include surface ship observations in the tropical Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and Indian oceans, and various hydrometeorological and circulation index series, representing the water discharge of the Senegal River (SENEGAL), the rainfall in the West African Sahel (SAHEL), the discharge of rivers in the Nile basin (ROSEIRES, ATBARA), India monsoon rainfall (NIR), and the Southern Oscillation (SO). The field significance of correlation patterns is ascertained through Monte Carlo experiments.There is a strong correlation of hydrometeorological conditions from Senegal to the Sahel, a decrease from each of these domains eastward to the Nile catchment, and even more so to India. Conversely, correlations are remarkably high between the water discharge of the Nile basin (ROSEIRES, ATBARA) and Indian rainfall (NIR). An SO index is correlated positively with the hydrometeorological conditions throughout the monsoon belt, but most strongly in the East (NIR) and least in the West (SENEGAL).Correlation analyses for the July-August height of the boreal summer monsoon indicate that abundant rainfall in the western Sahel is, in the Atlantic sector, associated with weak northeast trades and in the western Indian Ocean with low pressure overlying cool surface waters. By comparison, copious river discharge in the eastern portion of the Subsaharan zone coincides with weakened northeast trades over the Atlantic but more pronounced circulation departures in the Indian Ocean sector, consisting of anomalously low pressure, cold surface waters, and abundant cloudiness in the northern Indian Ocean. This ensemble of atmosphere-ocean anomalies is also characteristic of abundant Indian monsoon rainfall. During the positive SO phase, rainfall tends to be relatively abundant

  1. Holocene Asian and African Monsoon Strength Recorded in O-18 of Atmospheric Oxygen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Severinghaus, J. P.; Beaudette, R.; Brook, E. J.

    2008-12-01

    Prior work using trapped gases in ice cores has shown that the oxygen-18/16 ratio of atmospheric molecular oxygen (δ18Oatm) is sensitive to orbital-scale monsoon and ice volume variations (Bender et al., 1994) and millennial-scale monsoon variations during Marine Isotope Stage 4 (Landais et al., 2007). Here we extend these findings with a high-resolution record from the Siple Dome ice core, West Antarctica, covering the last 60 kyr. The early Holocene sample resolution is ~30 yr and precision is ±0.009‰, revealing previously unrecognized centennial-scale variations in δ18Oatm. Removal of the seawater δ18O record (Waelbroeck et al., 2002) yields a record of past changes in the Dole Effect, the difference between the δ18O of air and seawater (+23.8‰ today). A further calculation using the derivative of the δ18Oatm data and an assumed 1000-yr O2 turnover time allows a deconvolution of the implied effective value of δ18O of O2 introduced to the atmosphere by the terrestrial biosphere (δ18Oland). Photosynthesis transfers the δ18O of chloroplast water (H218O/H216O) directly to the O2 that is produced (Guy et al., 1997). Strong monsoons are expected to produce low values of δ18Oland and thus a weak Dole Effect by 1) the low δ18O of heavy rainfall, 2) weak evaporative enrichment of 18O in leaf water due to the high humidity in which monsoon photosynthesis generally occurs, and 3) weak respiratory fractionation in wet tropical soils (Angert et al., 2003). In fact, our calculated δ18Oland correlates surprisingly well with Asian monsoon strength indicators such as the Dongge Cave record (Wang et al., 2005) at periods >0.2 kyr, except at 6 ka, where a prominent increase in δ18Oland coincides with the drying of the Sahara. These observations suggest that δ18Oland from ice cores may be a useful proxy of past Asian and African monsoon variations that integrates over large spatial scales (because the atmosphere is well-mixed, and photosynthesis is ubiquitous

  2. Relationship between the Indian summer monsoon and the large-scale circulation variability over the Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizou, Despoina; Flocas, Helena A.; Athanasiadis, Panos; Bartzokas, Aristides

    2015-01-01

    In this study the impact of the Indian summer monsoon on the large scale variability of the atmospheric circulation over the Mediterranean is investigated on an inter-annual time scale. Composite and correlation analysis results are presented, outlining different circulation patterns in the upper and lower troposphere for strong and weak monsoon years respectively. For this purpose ERA-40 Reanalysis monthly mean data at various isobaric levels together with the standardized All India Rainfall Index for boreal summer (June-July-August-September) of a 44-year period were employed. During strong monsoon years many atmospheric circulation systems appear strengthened over Eurasia, resembling a well-organized Rossby wave train over the area. In the upper troposphere a meridional shift of the jet streams over the examined area was also identified during extreme monsoon years. On the other hand, in the lower troposphere enhanced northerlies (Etesians) appear to dominate over Eastern Mediterranean along with intensified subsidence during strong monsoon years.

  3. O the Interannual Variability of the Indian Monsoon and the Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Ming Chin

    The mechanisms of the interannual variability of the Indian monsoon and the Southern Oscillation are investigated from observations in the Indian Ocean sector. On this diagnostic basis, a statistical forecasting scheme is developed for all-India rainfall anomalies. A good summer monsoon is characterized by the following aspects. (1) Arabian Sea: higher sea surface temperature (SST) in the pre-monsoon season but lower SST in the monsoon and post -monsoon seasons, lower sea level pressure (SLP) throughout the year, strong surface wind and more cloudiness from the pre-monsoon through the post-monsoon seasons; (2) Indian subcontinent: higher surface temperature in the pre-monsoon season but lower surface temperature afterward, decreased lower-tropospheric constant pressure topographies and higher in the North but lower in the South upper-tropospheric topographies, stronger lower-tropospheric inflow from the South and upper-tropospheric outflow toward the South, and more northward position of the upper-air ridge; and (3) Tibetan Plateau: a warm and dry concurrent summer and a warm and wet preceding winter. An early monsoon onset is heralded by oceanic -atmospheric conditions around the Indian subcontinent similar to those for a good monsoon year. However, conditions immediately following an early monsoon onset are characterized in the Arabian Sea by high SST, strong surface wind, less cloudiness, and high SLP, and in India by an anomalously cold and then warm surface environment. A cool equatorial Pacific Ocean episode of the southern Oscillation is characterized in the Indian Ocean by higher SST in the antecedent seasons but lower SST in the concurrent and following seasons, lower SLP from the preceding throughout the following seasons, stronger surface wind in the western part of the ocean but weaker surface wind in the eastern part during the summer, and more cloudiness. Both large positive values of the Southern Oscillation index and its tendency foreshadow a good

  4. Quaternary Indus River Terraces as Archives of Summer Monsoon Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonell, Tara N.; Clift, Peter D.

    2013-04-01

    If we are to interpret the marine stratigraphic record in terms of evolving continental environmental conditions or tectonics, it is essential to understand the transport processes that bring sediment from mountain sources to its final marine depocenter. We investigate the role that climate plays in modulating this flux by looking at the Indus River system, which is dominated by the strong forcing of the Asian monsoon and the erosion of the western Himalaya. Lake, paleoceanographic, and speleothem records offer high-resolution reconstructions of monsoon intensity over millennial timescales. These proxies suggest the monsoon reached peak intensity at ~9-10 ka in central India, followed by a steady decline after ~7 ka, with a steep decline after 4 ka. New lake core records (Tso Kar and Tso Moriri), however, suggest a more complex pattern of monsoon weakening between 7-8 ka in the Greater Himalayan region, which contrasts with a time of strong monsoon in central India. This indicates that the floodplains of the major river systems may not experience the same climatic conditions as their mountain sources, resulting in different geomorphologic responses to climate change. Earlier research has established that the northern part of the Indus floodplain adjacent to the mountains experienced incision after ~10 ka. Incision and reworking is even more intense in the Himalayas but its timing is not well-constrained. High altitude river valleys, at least north of the Greater Himalaya, appear to be sensitive to monsoon strength because they lie on the periphery of the Himalayan rain shadow. These valleys may be affected by landslide damming during periods of strong monsoonal precipitation, such as slightly after the monsoon maximum from 9-10 ka. Damming of these river valleys provides sediment storage through valley-filling and later sediment release through gradual incision or dam-bursting. Terraces of a major tributary to the Indus, the Zanskar River, indicate valley

  5. Mutual interaction between the West African Monsoon on the summer Mediterranean climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaetani, M.; Baldi, M.; Dalu, G. A.

    2009-04-01

    Many studies have show that the West African Monsoon (WAM) is teleconnected with neighbouring regions, as the Mediterranean (Med) basin and the Tropical Atlantic, but also it is sensitive to the perturbations occurring even in remote regions, as the Indian sub-continent and the Tropical Pacific, these teleconnections being active on several time-scales, from intraseasonal to multidecadal. The WAM plays also an active role in the regional atmospheric circulation, inducing significant changes in rainfall, moisture, temperature, and wind distribution up to the North Africa. Within this framework, recent works were focused on the teleconnection between WAM and Med. WAM is strengthened by the north-easterly advection of moisture from the Med Sea, and, since the subsiding monsoonal air often invades the Med, there is a 2-way interaction between WAM and Med summer circulation. We study these interactions, applying SVD analysis to global NCEP Reanalysis and to rainfall data from CMAP, during the extended monsoonal season from May to October, on interannual and on intraseasonal time-scale. Dynamical features are explored using composite analysis, focusing on the role of this connection in the heat waves occurrence in the Med. We find that a strong WAM intensifies the Hadley meridional circulation, with a strengthening of the north Atlantic anticyclone and a weakening, even blocking, of the westerly flow in the Med. A deep inland penetration of WAM produces a northern shift of the Libyan anticyclone, with subsidence and high pressure affecting mainly the western Med. The positive feedback is due to the intensification of north-easterly flow from the eastern Med, which, reaching the Sahara desert, intensifies the intertropical front, favouring abundant monsoonal precipitation because of the added moist air.

  6. The Mid-Holocene West African Monsoon strength modulated by Saharan dust and vegetation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pausata, F. S. R.; Messori, G.; Zhang, Q.

    2015-12-01

    The West African Monsoon (WAM) is crucial for the socio-economic stability of millions of people living in the Sahel. Severe droughts have ravaged the region in the last three decades of the 20th century, highlighting the need for a better understanding of the WAM dynamics. One of the most dramatic changes in the WAM occurred between 15,000-5,000 years BP, when increased summer precipitation led to the so-called "Green Sahara" and to a reduction in dust emissions from the region. Previous studies have shown that variations in vegetation and soil type can have major impacts on precipitation. However, model simulations are still unable to fully reproduce the intensification and geographical expansion of the African monsoon during that period, even when vegetation over the Sahara is simulated. Here, we use a fully coupled simulation for 6000 years BP in which prescribed Saharan vegetation and dust concentrations are changed in turn. A close agreement with proxy records is obtained only when both Saharan vegetation and dust decrease are taken into account (Fig. 1). The dust reduction extends the monsoon's northern limit further than the vegetation-change case only (Fig. 2), by strengthening vegetation-albedo feedbacks and driving a deeper Saharan Heat Low. The dust reduction under vegetated Sahara conditions leads to a northward shift of the WAM extension that is about twice as large as the shift due to the changes in orbital forcing alone. We therefore conclude that accounting for changes in Saharan dust loadings is essential for improving model simulations of the MH WAM. The role of dust is also relevant when looking into the future, since Saharan dust emission may decrease owing to both direct and indirect anthropogenic impacts on land cover.

  7. 250 years of SW Indian Monsoon Variability from Red Sea Corals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bryan, S.; Hughen, K. A.; Karnauskas, K. B.; Farrar, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    During the northern hemisphere summer, strong dust storms develop in the Tokar Delta region of Sudan. These massive dust storms are funneled through a gap in the coastal mountains and blow out across the Red Sea. The generation and transport of these dust storms is driven by the large-scale atmospheric pressure gradient across the Red Sea, which is a component of the Southwest Indian Monsoon. Dust deposited on the Red Sea is recorded in skeletal geochemistry of corals that live on the Saudi Arabian coast, and provides an opportunity to reconstruct variability in the monsoon system prior to instrumental records. We have generated annually-resolved records of coral Ba/Ca, which display strong correlations to the zonal pressure gradient across the Red Sea during the instrumental period. Our coral-based monsoon records show an increasing trend in the strength of SW Indian Monsoon circulation since the Little Ice Age, in agreement with lower-resolution Arabian Sea upwelling based records. Our records also show strong decadal-scale variability, which was strongest during the late 19th century and has declined during the past century. In this presentation, we will discuss the decadal-scale variability in the SW Indian Monsoon circulation over the past 250 years as revealed by Red Sea Corals and the implications of the relationships and trends observed in this study for projections of future monsoon variability.

  8. KZai 02 pollen record, an insight into West African monsoon fluctuations during the Last Climatic Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalibard, M.; Popescu, S.; Maley, J.; Suc, J.

    2012-12-01

    Climate of the circum-Atlantic intertropical zone is driven by the ocean/atmosphere dynamics in response to variations of yearly insolation. These latitudes correspond to the convergence of the Hadley cells expressed on earth surface by intense trade winds and in lower troposphere by the African easterly jet making the edges of the intertropical zone relatively dry, while humidity is concentrated near the Equator. This phenomenon generates a precipitation front, known as the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the oscillations of which regulate the latitudinal vegetation distribution. Pollen record of core KZai 02 (Guinea Gulf) allows high resolution reconstruction of variations of past ecosystems over Central Africa during the Last Climatic Cycle. Plant taxa recorded in pollen analyses have been clustered according to their ecological requirements and African phytogeography. Fluctuations of these groups inform on precipitation intensity and their distribution during the last 130 ka. During Glacials, an open vegetation made of Cyperaceae marshes developed in the central Zaire/Congo Basin, surrounded by savannah on borders and afromontane forests on reliefs. Composition and distribution of vegetation indicate a decrease in monsoon activity and the strengthening of the precipitation front in the center of the basin. Interglacial phases are characterized by rain forest expansion over Central Africa in response to a precipitation enhancement associated with a northward shift of the rainfall front. Replacement of afromontane forest and marsh ecosystems by savannah then lowland pioneering, warm-temperate and rain forests characterized glacial/interglacial transitions. This succession suggests the increasing influence of at least two climatic parameters: the water availability and temperature and/or CO2 fluctuation. Spectral analysis applied to vegetation groups evidences the forcing of insolation, mainly driven by precession, on the West African monsoon system. Sub

  9. Interannual vs decadal SST forced responses of the West African monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belen

    2010-05-01

    One of the strongest interdecadal signals on the planet has been observed in the Sahelian rainfall during the second half of the XXth century, from wet conditions in the 50's and 60's to drier conditions after the 70's. Parallel to this, several decadal signals have experienced a change from the 70's, and also the influence of the global warming has increased from this decade. From a global perspective the West African rainfall variability is highly modulated by SST forced signals. Many works have pointed out to the Atlantic and Pacific equatorial modes influence on interannual timescales; and to the AMO and the Pacific and Indian Ocean at multidecadal timescales. In the AMMA-EU context the modulation of the interannual modes by the decadal variability together with the influence of the GW has been studied by analysing the interannual modes of variability before and after the 70's. The results indicate the presence of different interannual telecconections between these two periods and, hence, of different anomalous rainfall responses. The importance of the background state modulated by multidecadal variability in the interannual modes is stated in this work. Also, an interesting discussion appears if we wonder whether or not the background state is affected, in turn, by anthropogenic climate change. Recent observational and GCM studies have shown, following the results of Polo et al. (2008), how the Atlantic and Pacific Niños present a dynamical link during the last decades of the XX century (Rodriguez-Fonseca et al., 2009). In this way, the positive (negative) phase of the summer Pacific Niño signal has been found to be connected with a negative (positive) phase of the Equatorial Atlantic mode (EM or Atlantic Niño, Polo et al., 2008); a pattern which leads the summer Atlantic variability. The determinant impact of this connection on the WA monsoon has been addressed by defining a global summer tropical mode accounting for more than the 60% of the rainfall

  10. Monsoon rainfall interannual variability over China and its association with the Euasian circulation

    SciTech Connect

    Samel, A.N.; Wang, Wei-Chyung

    1997-11-01

    This study has two goals. The first is to determine annual observed initial and final dates of east Asian summer monsoon rainfall. To accomplish this, a semi-objective analysis is developed and applied to daily rainfall station data throughout China. The resulting values are used to calculate monsoon duration and total rainfall. The second goal is to identify relationships between these rainfall characteristics and circulation features in the Eurasian sea level pressure. The analysis of the duration of monsoon rainfall events produced results that are consistent with those found in previous studies. Total monsoon rainfall over south China, the Yangtze River valley, and north China was then correlated with the Eurasian sea level pressure and 500 millibar height fields. The results indicate that summer rainfall interannual variability over each region is governed by the interaction of several circulation features. These findings are also consistent with those of other studies. 18 refs., 5 figs.

  11. Role of Terrestrial Moisture Source Transport on Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability over Ganga River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    A S, S.; Pathak, A.; Ghosh, S.; Kumar, P.

    2015-12-01

    Ganga river basin, which is one of the most agricultural intensified and densely populated in the world, receives moisture from different terrestrial sources, other than oceanic sources. The modeling of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) over Ganga Basin, especially its variability, is very crucial as most of the agro-economical practices depend on it. The monsoon rainfall over the core monsoon zone in India which covers the large amount of area of Ganga basin is significantly correlated with the rainfall over Ganga basin. Therefore, the atmospheric moisture transport from different terrestrial sources to the sink over Ganga basin is studied for better understanding of ISMR variability (both inter-annual, and intraseasonal timescale) over Ganga Basin and core monsoon zone. We use extended version of the dynamic recycling model, which is based on Lagrangian trajectory approach to study the impact of moisture source variability on ISMR over Ganga basin during 1979-2013. The intraseasonal variation of ISMR is also observed to be significantly associated with the moisture source variability. The regions with dense vegetation cover such as Ganga basin and south-central forest region in India, manifest substantial role of land surface feedback with high recycling ratios (15-20%). It is also observed that the peak monsoon rainfall occurs during a period when all the oceanic and terrestrial sources altogether contribute significantly to the ISMR. The novelty of present work lies in understanding the role of different terrestrial sources on ISMR variability at different timescale viz., intra-seasonal to interannual. Our findings also highlight the importance of land surface feedback through evapotranspiration, in order to accurately model ISMR variability for better planning and management of the crop calendar. Key words: Atmospheric moisture transport, Dynamic precipitation recycling, Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability, Ganga River Basin.

  12. Trace gas variability within the Asian monsoon anticyclone on intraseasonal and interannual timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nützel, Matthias; Dameris, Martin; Fierli, Federico; Stiller, Gabriele; Garny, Hella; Jöckel, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The Asian monsoon and the associated monsoon anticyclone have the potential of substantially influencing the composition of the UTLS (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere) and hence global climate. Here we study the variability of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone in the UTLS on intraseasonal and interannual timescales using results from long term simulations performed with the CCM EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). In particular, we focus on specified dynamics simulations (Newtonian relaxation to ERA-Interim data) covering the period 1980-2013, which have been performed within the ESCiMo (Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling) project (Jöckel et al., GMDD, 2015). Our main focus lies on variability of the anticyclone's strength (in terms of potential vorticity, geopotential and circulation) and variability in trace gas signatures (O3, H2O) within the anticyclone. To support our findings, we also include observations from satellites (MIPAS, MLS). Our work is linked to the EU StratoClim campaign in 2016.

  13. RAMA: Research Moored Array for African - Asian - Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McPhaden, M. J.

    2008-12-01

    The Indian Ocean is unique among the three tropical oceans in that it is blocked at 25N by the Asian land mass. Seasonal heating and cooling over this land mass sets the stage for dramatic monsoon wind reversals and intense summer rains over areas surrounding the basin. These climate variations have significant societal and economic impacts that affect half the world's population. Despite the importance of the Indian Ocean for both the regional and global climate though, it is the most poorly observed and least well understood of the three tropical oceans. This presentation describes the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA), which has been designed to provide sustained, basin scale time series data in the Indian Ocean for climate research and forecasting. RAMA is intended to complement other satellite and in situ components of the Indian Ocean Observing System and it is being implemented through a coordinated multi- national effort involving institutions in several countries. We will review the scientific rationale, design criteria, and implementation status of RAMA. We will also illustrate some of the important intraseasonal to interannual time scale phenomena in the region observed with new RAMA time series data. Potential applications of the data for forecasting purposes will also be discussed.

  14. RAMA: Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McPhaden, M. J.

    2009-05-01

    The Indian Ocean is unique among the three tropical ocean basins in that it is blocked at 25°N by the Asian land mass. Seasonal heating and cooling over this land mass sets the stage for dramatic monsoon wind reversals and intense rains over areas surrounding the basin. These climate variations have significant societal and economic impacts that affect half the world's population. Despite the importance of the Indian Ocean for both the regional and global climate though, it is the most poorly observed and least well understood of the three tropical oceans. This presentation describes the Research Moored Array for African-Asian- Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA), which has been designed to provide sustained, basin scale time series data in the Indian Ocean for climate research and forecasting. RAMA is intended to complement other satellite and in situ components of the Indian Ocean Observing System and it is being implemented through a coordinated multi-national effort involving institutions in several countries. We will review the scientific rationale, design criteria, and implementation status of RAMA. We will also illustrate some of the important intraseasonal to interannual time scale phenomena in the region observed with new RAMA time series data. Potential applications of the data for forecasting purposes will also be discussed.

  15. Trends and variability in East African rainfall and temperature observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seregina, Larisa; Ermert, Volker; Fink, Andreas H.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    The economy of East Africa is highly dependent on agriculture, leading to a strong vulnerability of local society to fluctuations in seasonal rainfall amounts, including extreme events. Hence, the knowledge about the evolution of seasonal rainfall under future climate conditions is crucial. Rainfall regimes over East Africa are influenced by multiple factors, including two monsoon systems, several convergence zones and the Rift Valley lakes. In addition, local conditions, like topography, modulate the large-scale rainfall pattern. East African rainfall variability is also influenced by various teleconnections like the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation. Regarding future climate projections, regional and global climate models partly disagree on the increase or decrease of East African rainfall. The specific aim of the present study is the acquirement of historic data from weather stations in East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Ruanda and Uganda), the use of gridded satellite (rainfall) products (ARC2 and TRMM), and three-dimensional atmospheric reanalysis (e.g., ERA-Interim) to quantify climate variability in the recent past and to understand its causes. Climate variability and trends, including changes in extreme events, are evaluated using ETCCDI climate change and standardized precipitation indices. These climate indices are determined in order to investigate the variability of temperature and rainfall and their trends with the focus on most recent decades. In the follow-up, statistical and dynamical analyses are conducted to quantify the local impact of pertinent large-scale modes of climate variability (Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Sea Surface Temperature of the Indian Ocean).

  16. Meridional Propagation of the MJO/ISO and Prediction of Off-equatorial Monsoon Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Man Li C.; Schubert, S.; Suarez, M.; Pegion, P.; Bacmeister, J.; Waliser, D.

    2004-01-01

    In this study we examine the links between tropical heating, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)/Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO), and the off-equatorial monsoon development. We examine both observations and idealized "MJO heating" experiments employing the NASA Seasonal-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). In the simulations, the model is forced by climatological SST and an idealized eastward propagating heating profile that is meant to mimic the canonical heating associated with the MJO in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. The observational analysis highlights the strong link between the Indian summer monsoon and the tropical ISO/MJO activity and heating. Here we focus on the potential for skillful predictions of the monsoon on subseasonal time scales associated with the meridional propagation of the ISOMJO. In particular, we show that the variability of the Indian summer monsoon lags behind the variability of tropical ISOMJO heating by about 15 days when the tropical heating is around 60E and 90E. This feature of the ISOMJO is reproduced in the AGCM experiments with the idealized eastward propagating MJO-like heating, suggesting that models with realistic ISOM0 variability should provide useful skill of monsoon breaks and surges on subseasonal time scales.

  17. Meridional Propagation of the MJO/ISO and Prediction of Off-equatorial Monsoon Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Man Li C.; Schubert, S.; Suarez, M.; Pegion, P.; Waliser, D.

    2003-01-01

    This study was examine the links between tropical heating, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)/Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO), and the off-equatorial monsoon development. We examine both observations and idealized "MJO heating" experiments employing the NASA Seasonal-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). In the simulations, the model is forced by climatological SST and an idealized eastward propagating heating profile that is meant 'to mimic the canonical heating associated with the MJO in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. The observational analysis highlights the strong link between the Indian summer monsoon and the tropical ISO/MJO activity and heating. Here we focus on the potential for skillful predictions of the monsoon on sub-seasonal time scales associated with the meridional propagation of the ISO/MJO. In particular, we show that the variability of the Indian summer monsoon lags behind the variability of tropical ISO/MJO heating by about 15 days when the tropical heating is around 60E and 90E. This feature of the ISO/MJO is reproduced in the AGCM experiments with the idealized eastward propagating MJO-like heating, suggesting that models with realistic ISO/MJO variability should provide useful skill of monsoon breaks and surges on sub-seasonal time scales.

  18. The South American Monsoon Variability over the Last Millennium in CMIP5/PMIP3 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rojas, M.; Arias, P. A.; Flores-Aqueveque, V.; Seth, A.; Vuille, M.

    2015-12-01

    In this paper we assess South American Monsoon System (SAMS) variability throughout the Last Millennium as depicted by the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project version 5/Paleo Modelling Intercomparison Project version 3 (CMIP5/PMIP3) simulations. High-resolution proxy records for the South American monsoon over this period show a coherent regional picture of a weak monsoon during the Medieval Climate Anomaly period and a stronger monsoon during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Due to the small forcing during the past 1000 years, CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations do not show very strong temperature anomalies over these two specific periods, which in turn do not translate into clear precipitation anomalies, as suggested by rainfall reconstructions in South America. However, with an ad-hoc definition of these two periods for each model simulation, several coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies were identified. The models feature a stronger Monsoon during the LIA associated with: (i) an enhancement of the rising motion in the SAMS domain in austral summer, (ii) a stronger monsoon-related upper-troposphere anticyclone, (iii) activation of the South American dipole, which results to a certain extent in a poleward shift in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and (iv) a weaker upper-level sub tropical jet over South America, this providing important insights into the mechanisms of these climate anomalies over South America during the past millennium.

  19. The South American monsoon variability over the last millennium in climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rojas, Maisa; Arias, Paola A.; Flores-Aqueveque, Valentina; Seth, Anji; Vuille, Mathias

    2016-08-01

    In this paper we assess South American monsoon system (SAMS) variability in the last millennium as depicted by global coupled climate model simulations. High-resolution proxy records for the South American monsoon over this period show a coherent regional picture of a weak monsoon during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and a stronger monsoon during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Due to the small external forcing during the past 1000 years, model simulations do not show very strong temperature anomalies over these two specific periods, which in turn do not translate into clear precipitation anomalies, in contrast with the rainfall reconstructions in South America. Therefore, we used an ad hoc definition of these two periods for each model simulation in order to account for model-specific signals. Thereby, several coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies are identified. The models feature a stronger monsoon during the LIA associated with (i) an enhancement of the rising motion in the SAMS domain in austral summer; (ii) a stronger monsoon-related upper-tropospheric anticyclone; (iii) activation of the South American dipole, which results in a poleward shift of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone; and (iv) a weaker upper-level subtropical jet over South America. The diagnosed changes provide important insights into the mechanisms of these climate anomalies over South America during the past millennium.

  20. Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during Late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reuter, M.; Piller, W. E.; Harzhauser, M.; Kroh, A.

    2013-01-01

    Important concerns about the consequences of climate change for India are the potential impact on tropical cyclones and the monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as an indicator of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the Late Oligocene warming period (~27-24 Ma). Direct proxies providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system in the Early Miocene. The vast shell concentrations comprise a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deep to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished each recording a relative storm wave base depth. (1) A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore mollusks, corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2) an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclind foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinaceans; and (3) a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten-Schizaster echinoid assemblage. Vertical changes in these skeletal associations give evidence of gradually increasing tropical cyclone intensity in line with third-order sea level rise. The intensity of cyclones over the Arabian Sea is primarily linked to the strength of the Indian monsoon. Therefore and since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the Late Oligocene, the longer-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the peak of the Late Oligocene global warming (~24 Ma).

  1. Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reuter, M.; Piller, W. E.; Harzhauser, M.; Kroh, A.

    2013-09-01

    Climate change has an unknown impact on tropical cyclones and the Asian monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as a recorder of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the late Oligocene warming period (~ 27-24 Ma). Proxy data providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system at the Oligocene-Miocene boundary. The vast shell concentrations are comprised of a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deeper to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished, each recording a relative storm wave base. (1) A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore molluscs, reef corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2) an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclinid foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinacean algae; and (3) a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten bivalve-Schizaster echinoid assemblage. These wave base depth estimates were used for the reconstruction of long-term tropical storm intensity during the late Oligocene. The development and intensification of cyclones over the recent Arabian Sea is primarily limited by the atmospheric monsoon circulation and strength of the associated vertical wind shear. Therefore, since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the late Oligocene, the reconstructed long-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~ 26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the peak of the late

  2. West African monsoon dynamics inferred from abrupt fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad

    PubMed Central

    Armitage, Simon J.; Bristow, Charlie S.; Drake, Nick A.

    2015-01-01

    From the deglacial period to the mid-Holocene, North Africa was characterized by much wetter conditions than today. The broad timing of this period, termed the African Humid Period, is well known. However, the rapidity of the onset and termination of the African Humid Period are contested, with strong evidence for both abrupt and gradual change. We use optically stimulated luminescence dating of dunes, shorelines, and fluviolacustrine deposits to reconstruct the fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad, which was the largest pluvial lake in Africa. Humid conditions first occur at ∼15 ka, and by 11.5 ka, Lake Mega-Chad had reached a highstand, which persisted until 5.0 ka. Lake levels fell rapidly at ∼5 ka, indicating abrupt aridification across the entire Lake Mega-Chad Basin. This record provides strong terrestrial evidence that the African Humid Period ended abruptly, supporting the hypothesis that the African monsoon responds to insolation forcing in a markedly nonlinear manner. In addition, Lake Mega-Chad exerts strong control on global biogeochemical cycles because the northern (Bodélé) basin is currently the world’s greatest single dust source and possibly an important source of limiting nutrients for both the Amazon Basin and equatorial Atlantic. However, we demonstrate that the final desiccation of the Bodélé Basin occurred around 1 ka. Consequently, the present-day mode and scale of dust production from the Bodélé Basin cannot have occurred before 1 ka, suggesting that its role in fertilizing marine and terrestrial ecosystems is either overstated or geologically recent. PMID:26124133

  3. West African monsoon dynamics inferred from abrupt fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad.

    PubMed

    Armitage, Simon J; Bristow, Charlie S; Drake, Nick A

    2015-07-14

    From the deglacial period to the mid-Holocene, North Africa was characterized by much wetter conditions than today. The broad timing of this period, termed the African Humid Period, is well known. However, the rapidity of the onset and termination of the African Humid Period are contested, with strong evidence for both abrupt and gradual change. We use optically stimulated luminescence dating of dunes, shorelines, and fluviolacustrine deposits to reconstruct the fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad, which was the largest pluvial lake in Africa. Humid conditions first occur at ∼ 15 ka, and by 11.5 ka, Lake Mega-Chad had reached a highstand, which persisted until 5.0 ka. Lake levels fell rapidly at ∼ 5 ka, indicating abrupt aridification across the entire Lake Mega-Chad Basin. This record provides strong terrestrial evidence that the African Humid Period ended abruptly, supporting the hypothesis that the African monsoon responds to insolation forcing in a markedly nonlinear manner. In addition, Lake Mega-Chad exerts strong control on global biogeochemical cycles because the northern (Bodélé) basin is currently the world's greatest single dust source and possibly an important source of limiting nutrients for both the Amazon Basin and equatorial Atlantic. However, we demonstrate that the final desiccation of the Bodélé Basin occurred around 1 ka. Consequently, the present-day mode and scale of dust production from the Bodélé Basin cannot have occurred before 1 ka, suggesting that its role in fertilizing marine and terrestrial ecosystems is either overstated or geologically recent.

  4. Lake Mega-Chad, a West African Monsoon indicator and tipping element

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armitage, Simon; Bristow, Charlie; Drake, Nick

    2015-04-01

    From the deglacial period to the mid-Holocene, North Africa was characterised by much wetter conditions than today. The broad timing of this period, termed the African Humid Period, is well known. However, the rapidity of the onset and termination of the African Humid Period are contested, with strong evidence for both abrupt and gradual change. We use optically stimulated luminescence dating of dunes, shorelines and fluvio-lacustrine deposits to reconstruct the fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad, which was the largest pluvial lake in Africa. Humid conditions first occur at ~15 ka, followed by a return to relatively arid conditions. By 11.5 ka Lake Mega-Chad had reached a highstand, which persisted until 5.0 ka. Lake levels fell rapidly at 5 ka, indicating abrupt aridification across the entire Lake Mega-Chad Basin. This record provides strong terrestrial evidence that the African Humid Period ended abruptly, supporting the hypothesis that the African monsoon responds to insolation forcing in a markedly non-linear manner. In addition, Lake Mega-Chad exerts strong control on global biogeochemical cycles since the northern (Bodélé) basin is currently the World's greatest single dust source, and possibly an important source of limiting nutrients for both the Amazon basin and equatorial Atlantic. However, we demonstrate that the final desiccation of the Bodélé Basin occurred around 1 ka. Consequently, the present-day mode and scale of dust production from Bodélé Basin cannot have occurred prior to 1 ka, suggesting that its role in fertilizing marine and terrestrial ecosystems is either overstated or geologically recent.

  5. West Indian Ocean variability and East African fish catch.

    PubMed

    Jury, M; McClanahan, T; Maina, J

    2010-08-01

    We describe marine climate variability off the east coast of Africa in the context of fish catch statistics for Tanzania and Kenya. The time series exhibits quasi-decadal cycles over the period 1964-2007. Fish catch is up when sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric humidity are below normal in the tropical West Indian Ocean. This pattern relates to an ocean Rossby wave in one phase of its east-west oscillation. Coastal-scale analyses indicate that northward currents and uplift on the shelf edge enhance productivity of East African shelf waters. Some of the changes are regulated by the south equatorial current that swings northward from Madagascar. The weather is drier and a salty layer develops in high catch years. While the large-scale West Indian Ocean has some impact on East African fish catch, coastal dynamics play a more significant role. Climatic changes are reviewed using 200 years of past and projected data. The observed warming trend continues to increase such that predicted SST may reach 30 degrees C by 2100 while SW monsoon winds gradually increase, according to a coupled general circulation model simulation with a gradual doubling of CO(2). PMID:20471674

  6. Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model

    SciTech Connect

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin -Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature.

  7. Daily characteristics of West African summer monsoon precipitation in CORDEX simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klutse, Nana Ama Browne; Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Diallo, Ismaila; Sarr, Abdoulaye; Dosio, Alessandro; Diedhiou, Arona; Kamga, Andre; Lamptey, Benjamin; Ali, Abdou; Gbobaniyi, Emiola O.; Owusu, Kwadwo; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Nikulin, Grigory; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen; Büchner, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    We analyze and intercompare the performance of a set of ten regional climate models (RCMs) along with the ensemble mean of their statistics in simulating daily precipitation characteristics during the West African monsoon (WAM) period (June-July-August-September). The experiments are conducted within the framework of the COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments for the African domain. We find that the RCMs exhibit substantial differences that are associated with a wide range of estimates of higher-order statistics, such as intensity, frequency, and daily extremes mostly driven by the convective scheme employed. For instance, a number of the RCMs simulate a similar number of wet days compared to observations but greater rainfall intensity, especially in oceanic regions adjacent to the Guinea Highlands because of a larger number of heavy precipitation events. Other models exhibit a higher wet-day frequency but much lower rainfall intensity over West Africa due to the occurrence of less frequent heavy rainfall events. This indicates the existence of large uncertainties related to the simulation of daily rainfall characteristics by the RCMs. The ensemble mean of the indices substantially improves the RCMs' simulated frequency and intensity of precipitation events, moderately outperforms that of the 95th percentile, and provides mixed benefits for the dry and wet spells. Although the ensemble mean improved results cannot be generalized, such an approach produces encouraging results and can help, to some extent, to improve the robustness of the response of the WAM daily precipitation to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming.

  8. Past changes of the North African monsoon intensity between 5 and 6.2 My, impact of the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ségueni, F.; Colin, C.; Siani, G.; Frank, N.; Blamart, D.; Kissel, C.; Liu, Z.; Richter, T.; Suc, J.

    2006-12-01

    A high resolution multiproxy study by oxygen isotope record (δ18O) on benthic foraminifera (Cibicides wuellerstorfii), magnetic susceptibility, clay mineralogy (DRX), major - trace elements (XRF core scanner and ICPMS) and Rb/Sr - Nd isotopes was carried out from site ODP 659 along the Cape Verde off Africa. The aim was to reconstruct variations of African Monsoon during the Mio-Pliocene in the time interval from 5 My to 6,2 My. Chronology was established by linear interpolation between 3 bio-events based on calcareous nannoplancton zones, 2 glacial stages TG12 and TG22 identified on δ18O records and by tuning the δ18O and magnetic susceptibility records to the orbital parameter of obliquity and precession. Results indicate that between 5 to 6.2 My variability in the eolian input from Sahara and the coastal upwelling intensity are anti-correlated and make it possible to retrace the evolution of northern African Monsoon. The latter co- varies mainly with the insolation received by the earth at low latitude during the summer. Maximal insolation enhance summer monsoonal effects by increasing wetter conditions on Sahel and NE dominance wind system cause a reduced eolian input and an increased biogenic sea surface productivity by coastal upwelling. On the other hand, minimal insolation reinforce winter monsoon that create a more arid climate on Sahel and stronger westward winds that increase eolian flux on Cap Verde with a reduced upwelling effect on sea surface productivity. At a longer time scale, the end of the MSC is correlated with a major change of the African Monsoon intensity. Finally, the δ18O record on C.wuellerstorfii suggests that global eustatic processes didn't play a key role in the MSC history. Nevertheless, transition between glacial stage TG12 and the interglacial TG11 seems to correspond to a major event within the MSC, and associated to the beginning of the upper evaporite deposits. Thus, the facies of the Lago Mare of the upper evaporites would

  9. Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

    SciTech Connect

    Annamalai, H.

    2014-09-15

    The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observations and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical

  10. Bias reduction in decadal predictions of West African monsoon rainfall using regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paxian, A.; Sein, D.; Panitz, H.-J.; Warscher, M.; Breil, M.; Engel, T.; Tödter, J.; Krause, A.; Cabos Narvaez, W. D.; Fink, A. H.; Ahrens, B.; Kunstmann, H.; Jacob, D.; Paeth, H.

    2016-02-01

    The West African monsoon rainfall is essential for regional food production, and decadal predictions are necessary for policy makers and farmers. However, predictions with global climate models reveal precipitation biases. This study addresses the hypotheses that global prediction biases can be reduced by dynamical downscaling with a multimodel ensemble of three regional climate models (RCMs), a RCM coupled to a global ocean model and a RCM applying more realistic soil initialization and boundary conditions, i.e., aerosols, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), vegetation, and land cover. Numerous RCM predictions have been performed with REMO, COSMO-CLM (CCLM), and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in various versions and for different decades. Global predictions reveal typical positive and negative biases over the Guinea Coast and the Sahel, respectively, related to a southward shifted Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a positive tropical Atlantic SST bias. These rainfall biases are reduced by some regional predictions in the Sahel but aggravated by all RCMs over the Guinea Coast, resulting from the inherited SST bias, increased westerlies and evaporation over the tropical Atlantic and shifted African easterly waves. The coupled regional predictions simulate high-resolution atmosphere-ocean interactions strongly improving the SST bias, the ITCZ shift and the Guinea Coast and Central Sahel precipitation biases. Some added values in rainfall bias are found for more realistic SST and land cover boundary conditions over the Guinea Coast and improved vegetation in the Central Sahel. Thus, the ability of RCMs and improved boundary conditions to reduce rainfall biases for climate impact research depends on the considered West African region.

  11. Influence of preonset land atmospheric conditions on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rai, Archana; Saha, Subodh K.; Pokhrel, Samir; Sujith, K.; Halder, Subhadeep

    2015-05-01

    A possible link between preonset land atmospheric conditions and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is explored. It is shown that, the preonset positive (negative) rainfall anomaly over northwest India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran is associated with decrease (increase) in ISMR, primarily in the months of June and July, which in turn affects the seasonal mean. ISMR in the months of June and July is also strongly linked with the preonset 2 m air temperature over the same regions. The preonset rainfall/2 m air temperature variability is linked with stationary Rossby wave response, which is clearly evident in the wave activity flux diagnostics. As the predictability of Indian summer monsoon relies mainly on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the found link may further enhance our ability to predict the monsoon, particularly during a non-ENSO year.

  12. Impacts of absorbing aerosols on interannual and intraseasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, W. K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Shi, J. J.; Tao, W. K.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosol-monsoon interactions on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon are investigated from observations and modeling. On interannual time scales, we found from observations, and confirm with coupled ocean-atmosphere climate modeling, that absorbing aerosols (mainly desert dust and BC), can significantly amplifying the ENSO impact on the Indian monsoon, through precipitation and circulation feedback induced by the EHP effect. On intraseasonal time scales, modeling studies with the high-resolution WRF regional climate model demonstrated that EHP combined with the semi-direct and microphysics effects, associated with enhanced desert dust transported from the Middle East deserts across the Arabian Sea to the Indian subcontinent, may alter the moisture transport pathways, suppress the development of monsoon depression over northeastern India, resulting in development of intense convective cells, and extreme heavy rain along the Himalayan foothills in central and northwestern India. The implications of these feedback processes on climate change in the South Asian monsoon region will be discussed.

  13. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    PubMed

    Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K S; Dhanesh, Y; Sudheer, K P; Gunthe, S S

    2016-01-01

    India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  14. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes

    PubMed Central

    Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H.; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; Dhanesh, Y.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

    2016-01-01

    India’s agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins. PMID:27463092

  15. Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Ronghui; Chen, Jilong; Wang, Lin; Lin, Zhongda

    2012-09-01

    Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects: the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the "Silk Road" teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.

  16. Late Holocene primary productivity and sea surface temperature variations in the northeastern Arabian Sea: Implications for winter monsoon variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Böll, Anna; Lückge, Andreas; Munz, Philipp; Forke, Sven; Schulz, Hartmut; Ramaswamy, V.; Rixen, Tim; Gaye, Birgit; Emeis, Kay-Christian

    2014-08-01

    Variability in the oceanic environment of the Arabian Sea region is strongly influenced by the seasonal monsoon cycle of alternating wind directions. Prominent and well studied is the summer monsoon, but much less is known about late Holocene changes in winter monsoon strength with winds from the northeast that drive convective mixing and high surface ocean productivity in the northeastern Arabian Sea. To establish a high-resolution record of winter monsoon variability for the late Holocene, we analyzed alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) variations and proxies of primary productivity (organic carbon and δ15N) in a well-laminated sediment core from the Pakistan continental margin. Weak winter monsoon intensities off Pakistan are indicated from 400 B.C. to 250 A.D. by reduced productivity and relatively high SST. At about 250 A.D., the intensity of the winter monsoon increased off Pakistan as indicated by a trend to lower SST. We infer that monsoon conditions were relatively unstable from ~500 to 1300 A.D., because primary production and SST were highly variable. Declining SST and elevated biological production from 1400 to 1900 A.D. suggest invigorated convective winter mixing by strengthening winter monsoon circulation, most likely a regional expression of colder climate conditions during the Little Ice Age on the Northern Hemisphere. The comparison of winter monsoon intensity with records of summer monsoon intensity suggests that an inverse relationship between summer and winter monsoon strength exists in the Asian monsoon system during the late Holocene, effected by shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

  17. Himalayan River Terraces as A Landscape Response to Quaternary Summer Monsoon Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonell, T. N.; Clift, P. D.

    2013-12-01

    In order to interpret marine sedimentary archives as records of the erosional response to Asian monsoon variability, we must first recognize how transport processes affect the storage and release of sediment to the ocean. River terraces, such as found in the Greater Himalaya, provide a pivotal role in the source-to-sink story, because this is where sediment storage occurs and is likely modulated. We investigate the role that climate plays in controlling erosion and sediment flux to the Indus delta and fan by looking at the Indus River system, which is dominated by the strong forcing of the Asian monsoon, as well as winter Westerly winds. Paleoceanographic, speleothem, and lacustrine records indicate that summer monsoon intensity was strong from 29 to 37 ka, decreased after that time until ~16 ka, reached maximum intensity from 8 to 10 ka, and then weakened until ~3 ka. Some lacustrine records, however, indicate a more complex pattern of monsoon variability in the Greater Himalaya, which contrasts with monsoonal forcing in central India. This disagreement suggests that floodplains of major river systems may not experience the same climatic conditions as their mountain sources, resulting in contrasting landscape responses to climate change. High altitude river valleys, at least north ofthe Greater Himalaya, appear to be sensitive to monsoon strength because they lie on the periphery of the present rainfall maximum, in the Himalayan rain shadow. These steep river valleys may be affected by landslide damming during periods of increase moisture transport and strong monsoonal precipitation, where damming provides sediment storage through valley-filling and later sediment release through gradual incision or dam-bursting. The Zanskar River, a major tributary to the upper Indus River, provides a record of the erosional response of mountain river valleys to these extreme phases through river terracing. New OSL ages from alluvial terraces indicate reworking of sediment and

  18. Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Li, J. Y.

    2001-01-01

    In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

  19. East Asian Monsoon controls on the inter-annual variability in precipitation isotope ratio in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurita, N.; Fujiyoshi, Y.; Nakayama, T.; Matsumi, Y.; Kitagawa, H.

    2015-02-01

    To elucidate the mechanism for how the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) variability have influenced the isotope proxy records in Japan, we explore the primary driver of variations of precipitation isotopes at multiple temporal scales (event, seasonal and inter-annual scales). Using a new 1-year record of the isotopic composition of event-based precipitation and continuous near-surface water vapor at Nagoya in central Japan, we identify the key atmospheric processes controlling the storm-to-storm isotopic variations through an analysis of air mass sources and rainout history during the transport of moisture to the site, and then apply the identified processes to explain the inter-annual isotopic variability related to the EAM variability in the historical 17-year long Tokyo station record in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP). In the summer, southerly flows transport moisture with higher isotopic values from subtropical marine regions and bring warm rainfall enriched with heavy isotopes. The weak monsoon summer corresponds to enriched isotopic values in precipitation, reflecting higher contribution of warm rainfall to the total summer precipitation. In the strong monsoon summer, the sustaining Baiu rainband along the southern coast of Japan prevents moisture transport across Japan, so that the contribution of warm rainfall is reduced. In the winter, storm tracks are the dominant driver of storm-to-storm isotopic variation and relatively low isotopic values occur when a cold frontal rainband associated with extratropical cyclones passes off to the south of the Japan coast. The weak monsoon winter is characterized by lower isotopes in precipitation, due to the distribution of the cyclone tracks away from the southern coast of Japan. In contrast, the northward shift of the cyclone tracks and stronger development of cyclones during the strong monsoon winters decrease the contribution of cold frontal precipitation, resulting in higher isotopic values in

  20. A prominent pattern of year-to-year variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall.

    PubMed

    Mishra, Vimal; Smoliak, Brian V; Lettenmaier, Dennis P; Wallace, John M

    2012-05-01

    The dominant patterns of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and their relationships with the sea surface temperature and 850-hPa wind fields are examined using gridded datasets from 1900 on. The two leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of ISMR over India are used as basis functions for elucidating these relationships. EOF1 is highly correlated with all India rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. EOF2 involves rainfall anomalies of opposing polarity over the Gangetic Plain and peninsular India. The spatial pattern of the trends in ISMR from 1950 on shows drying over the Gangetic Plain projects onto EOF2, with an expansion coefficient that exhibits a pronounced trend during this period. EOF2 is coupled with the dominant pattern of sea surface temperature variability over the Indian Ocean sector, which involves in-phase fluctuations over the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, and the South China Sea, and it is correlated with the previous winter's El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. The circulation anomalies observed in association with fluctuations in the time-varying indices of EOF1 and EOF2 both involve distortions of the low-level monsoon flow. EOF1 in its positive polarity represents a southward deflection of moist, westerly monsoon flow from the Arabian Sea across India, resulting in a smaller flux of moisture to the Himalayas. EOF2 in its positive polarity represents a weakening of the monsoon trough over northeastern India and the westerly monsoon flow across southern India, reminiscent of the circulation anomalies observed during break periods within the monsoon season. PMID:22529372

  1. A prominent pattern of year-to-year variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall.

    PubMed

    Mishra, Vimal; Smoliak, Brian V; Lettenmaier, Dennis P; Wallace, John M

    2012-05-01

    The dominant patterns of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and their relationships with the sea surface temperature and 850-hPa wind fields are examined using gridded datasets from 1900 on. The two leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of ISMR over India are used as basis functions for elucidating these relationships. EOF1 is highly correlated with all India rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. EOF2 involves rainfall anomalies of opposing polarity over the Gangetic Plain and peninsular India. The spatial pattern of the trends in ISMR from 1950 on shows drying over the Gangetic Plain projects onto EOF2, with an expansion coefficient that exhibits a pronounced trend during this period. EOF2 is coupled with the dominant pattern of sea surface temperature variability over the Indian Ocean sector, which involves in-phase fluctuations over the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, and the South China Sea, and it is correlated with the previous winter's El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. The circulation anomalies observed in association with fluctuations in the time-varying indices of EOF1 and EOF2 both involve distortions of the low-level monsoon flow. EOF1 in its positive polarity represents a southward deflection of moist, westerly monsoon flow from the Arabian Sea across India, resulting in a smaller flux of moisture to the Himalayas. EOF2 in its positive polarity represents a weakening of the monsoon trough over northeastern India and the westerly monsoon flow across southern India, reminiscent of the circulation anomalies observed during break periods within the monsoon season.

  2. Water vapour variability during Indian monsoon over Trivandrum observed using Microwave Radiometer and GPS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raju, Suresh C.; Krishna Moorthy, K.; Ramachandran Pillai, Renju; Uma, K. N.; Saha, Korak

    2012-07-01

    The Indian summer monsoon is a highly regular synoptic event, providing most of the annual rainfall received over the sub-continent. Trivandrum, at the southwestern tip of Indian peninsula, is considered as the gate way of Indian monsoon, with its climatological onset on June 01. During this season, the region, experiences large seasonal variation in water vapor, rain fall and wind (speed and direction) in the troposphere. The variability in water vapor and wind information are the vital parameters in forecasting the onset of monsoon. This study focuses on water vapor measurements over the tropical coastal station Trivandrum (8.5oN & 76.9oE) using microwave techniques and the analyses with an effort to link the seasonal variability of water vapor with the onset of monsoon. At Trivandrum a hyper-spectral microwave radiometer profiler (MRP) and a Triple-frequency global positioning system receiver (GPS) have been in regular operation since April 2010. A station-dependent simple empirical relation suitable for the equatorial atmospheric condition is formulated to map the nonhydrostatic component of GPS tropospheric delay to the PWV, based on the columnar water vapor estimated from the multi-year daily radiosonde ascends from Trivandrum. A trained artificial neural network (ANN) with climatological atmospheric data of Trivandrum, is employed to derive the water vapor from the MRP brightness temperature measurements. The accuracy, reliability and consistency of PWV measurements over the tropical coastal station from these two independent instruments are assessed by comparing PWV derived from MRP and GPS measurements which resulted an rms deviation of <1.2mm (with correlation coefficient of ~0.98). This confirms the PWV derived over Trivandrum from microwave measurements are accurate even during the monsoon period in the presence of clouds and rain. PWV from microwave radiometer measurements for more than two years are used to study the water vapour variability during

  3. An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

    2016-06-01

    We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

  4. Teleconnections and internal variability of the Asian Monsoon in the last 1000 years from paleoclimate data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehfeld, Kira; Goswami, Bedartha; Marwan, Norbert; Breitenbach, Sebastian; Lechleitner, Franziska; Molkenthin, Nora; Kurths, Jürgen

    2013-04-01

    The Asian monsoon is a climate phenomenon with global reach, impacting on 60% of the world's population, and extremes in its dynamics affect both the people and the economies of Asia. Investigating past climate changes in the Asian monsoon system offers a unique key to understanding its future behavior under anthropogenic perturbation, because our global past is the only truthful realization of the "Earth System experiment" we can access. Paleoclimate data are hereby the only witnesses that testify directly about the state of the Earth system in the past. However, in order to be able to infer on the climatic processes reflected in the proxy data, three inherent challenges need to be met: the datasets are heterogeneously sampled in time (i), space (ii) and time itself is a variable that needs to be reconstructed, which (iii) introduces additional uncertainties. Addressing these issues using adapted similarity estimators, flexible network measures and numerical simulation, we infer spatio-temporal dependencies from paleoclimate networks. We then investigate, to what extent the decadal-scale variability recorded in the paleoclimate data from trees, speleothems, sediments and ice cores is due to internal variability of the Indian and the East Asian monsoon systems, and how potential teleconnections with the El Niño southern oscillation, the North Atlantic oscillation, and solar variability have varied over the last 1000 years.

  5. Internal Dynamics and Boundary Forcing Characteristics Associated with Interannual Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.- M.; Kim, K.-M.; Yang, S.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper, we present a description of the internal dynamics and boundary forcing characteristics of two major components of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), i.e., the South Asian (SAM) and the Southeast-East Asian monsoon (SEAM). The description is based on a new monsoon-climate paradigm in which the variability of ASM is considered as the outcome of the interplay of a "fast" and an "intermediate" monsoon subsystem, under the influenced of the "slow" varying external forcings. Two sets of regional monsoon indices derived from dynamically consistent rainfall and wind data are used in this study. For SAM, the internal dynamics is represented by that of a "classical" monsoon system where the anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby-wave dynamics, i.e., generation of anomalous vorticity induced by an off-equatorial heat source is balanced by planetary vorticity advection. On the other hand, the internal dynamics of SEAM is characterized by a "hybrid" monsoon system featuring multi-cellular meridional circulation over the East Asian section, extending from the deep tropics to midlatitudes. These meridional-cells link tropical heating to extratropical circulation system via the East Asian jetstream, and are responsible for the characteristic occurrences of zonally oriented anomalous rainfall patterns over East Asian and the subtropical western Pacific. In the extratropical regions, the major upper level vorticity balance is by anomalous vorticity advection and generation by the anomalous divergent circulation. A consequence of this is that compared to SAM, the SEAM is associated with stronger teleconnection patterns to regions outside the ASM. A strong SAM is linked to basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation with significant signal in the equatorial eastern Pacific. During the boreal spring SST warming in the Arabian Sea and the subtropical western Pacific may lead to a strong SAM. For SEAM, interannual variability is tied to SSTA over the Sea of

  6. Variability in AIRS CO2 during active and break phases of Indian summer monsoon.

    PubMed

    Revadekar, J V; Ravi Kumar, K; Tiwari, Yogesh K; Valsala, Vinu

    2016-01-15

    Due to human activities, the atmospheric concentration of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) has been rising extensively since the Industrial Revolution. Indian summer monsoon (ISM) has a dominant westerly component from ocean to land with a strong tendency to ascend and hence may have role in CO2 distribution in lower and middle troposphere over Indian sub-continent. A substantial component of ISM variability arises from the fluctuations on the intra-seasonal scale between active and break phases which correspond to strong and weak monsoon circulation. In view of the above, an attempt is made in this study to examine the AIRS/AQUA satellite retrieved CO2 distribution in response to atmospheric circulation with focus on active and break phase. Correlation analysis indicates the increase in AIRS CO2 linked with strong monsoon circulation. Study also reveals that anomalous circulation pattern during active and break phase show resemblance with high and low values of AIRS CO2. Homogeneous monsoon regions of India show substantial increase in CO2 levels during active phase. Hilly regions of India show strong contrast in CO2 and vertical velocity during active and break phases.

  7. A Stalagmite record of Holocene Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon variability from the Australian tropics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denniston, Rhawn F.; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Polyak, Victor J.; Brown, Josephine R.; Asmerom, Yemane; Wanamaker, Alan D.; LaPointe, Zachary; Ellerbroek, Rebecca; Barthelmes, Michael; Cleary, Daniel; Cugley, John; Woods, David; Humphreys, William F.

    2013-10-01

    Oxygen isotopic data from a suite of calcite and aragonite stalagmites from cave KNI-51, located in the eastern Kimberley region of tropical Western Australia, represent the first absolute-dated, high-resolution speleothem record of the Holocene Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) from the Australian tropics. Stalagmite oxygen isotopic values track monsoon intensity via amount effects in precipitation and reveal a dynamic Holocene IASM which strengthened in the early Holocene, decreased in strength by 4 ka, with a further decrease from ˜2 to 1 ka, before strengthening again at 1 ka to years to levels similar to those between 4 and 2 ka. The relationships between the KNI-51 IASM reconstruction and those from published speleothem time series from Flores and Borneo, in combination with other data sets, appear largely inconsistent with changes in the position and/or organization of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Instead, we argue that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may have played a dominant role in driving IASM variability since at least the middle Holocene. Given the muted modern monsoon rainfall responses to most El Niño events in the Kimberley, an impact of ENSO on regional monsoon precipitation over northwestern Australia would suggest non-stationarity in the long-term relationship between ENSO forcing and IASM rainfall, possibly due to changes in the mean state of the tropical Pacific over the Holocene.

  8. Experimental reconstruction of monsoon drought variability for Australasia using tree rings and corals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Baker, Patrick; Palmer, Jonathan; Anchukaitis, Kevin; Cook, Garry

    2008-06-01

    An experimental reconstruction uses three well-dated, annually-resolved proxies from Australasia (0-40°S, 95-155°E) to provide large-scale information on Sep-Jan Australasian monsoon variability based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1787-2002. The proxies are: (1) a ring width chronology of Callitris intratropica for northern Australia (1847-2006) (2) a tree-ring and coral-based reconstruction of the Oct-Nov PDSI (1787-2003) for Java, Indonesia; and (3) a rainfall reconstruction for northeastern Australia (1631-2002) based on Great Barrier Reef coral luminescence. All three proxies show considerable explanatory value for reconstructing monsoon rainfall variability over much of Australia and environs, which will improve as additional records become available. The success of this ``proof of concept'' experiment largely reflects the highly significant, spatially-coherent correlations between austral spring and summer PDSI, Australasian climate and ENSO.

  9. Sampling variability and the changing ENSO-monsoon relationship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cash, Benjamin A.; Barimalala, Rondrotiana; Kinter, James L.; Altshuler, Eric L.; Fennessy, Michael J.; Manganello, Julia V.; Molteni, Franco; Towers, Peter; Vitart, Frederic

    2016-08-01

    The impact of sampling variability on the correlation between all-India rainfall (AIR) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is investigated in a large ensemble of seasonal climate simulations made using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Ensemble Prediction System at T319 (64 km). The analyzed runs consist of 51 ensemble members initialized each May 1 for the period 1980-2011 and integrated for 7 months. 10,000 pairs of 32-year timeseries of June-September (JJAS) mean AIR and NINO3 indices are created from this database by randomly drawing one of the 51 ensemble members for each year. The correlation between each pair of AIR and NINO3 series is then calculated, generating a distribution of AIR-NINO3 correlation values. The model is reinitialized with observations each May 1 and thus all members are drawn from the same background state by construction and any differences in correlation are attributable to sampling variability. The spread in the calculated correlation values and the differences between 32-year segments are sufficient to explain the observed variations in AIR-NINO3 correlation since the beginning of the 1900s, including the sharp decrease in correlation strength since the late 1970s. Sampling variability thus represents a strong null hypothesis for the observed changes and one that cannot be rejected at the 95 % level based on our simulations.

  10. Impact of GCM boundary forcing on regional climate modeling of West African summer monsoon precipitation and circulation features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kebe, Ibourahima; Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Omotosho, Jerome Adebayo; Nikiema, Pinghouinde Michel; Gibba, Peter; Giorgi, Filippo

    2016-05-01

    In this study, the latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) driven by three CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) is used at 25 km grid spacing over West Africa to investigate the impact of lateral boundary forcings on the simulation of monsoon precipitation and its relationship with regional circulation features. We find that the RegCM4 experiments along with their multimodel ensemble generally reproduce the location of the main precipitation characteristics over the region and improve upon the corresponding driving GCMs. However, the provision of different forcing boundary conditions leads to substantially different precipitation magnitudes and spatial patterns. For instance, while RegCM4 nested within GFDL-ESM-2M and HadGEM2-ES exhibits some underestimations of precipitation and an excessively narrow Intertropical Convergence Zone, the MPI-ESM-MR driven run produces precipitation spatial distribution and magnitudes more similar to observations. Such a superior performance originates from a much better simulation of the interactions between baroclinicity, temperature gradient and African Easterly Jet along with an improved connection between the Isentropic Potential Vorticity, its gradient and the African Easterly Waves dynamics. We conclude that a good performing GCM in terms of monsoon dynamical features (in this case MPI-ESM-MR) is needed to drive RCMs in order to achieve a better representation of the West Africa summer monsoon precipitation.

  11. Impacts of dust reduction on the northward expansion of the African monsoon during the Green Sahara period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Messori, Gabriele; Zhang, Qiong

    2016-01-01

    The West African Monsoon (WAM) is crucial for the socio-economic stability of millions of people living in the Sahel. Severe droughts have ravaged the region in the last three decades of the 20th century, highlighting the need for a better understanding of the WAM dynamics. One of the most dramatic changes in the West African Monsoon (WAM) occurred between 15000-5000 yr BP, when increased summer rainfall led to the so-called "Green Sahara" and to a reduction in dust emissions from the region. However, model experiments are unable to fully reproduce the intensification and geographical expansion of the WAM during this period, even when vegetation over the Sahara is considered. Here, we use a fully coupled simulation for 6000 yr BP (Mid-Holocene) in which prescribed Saharan vegetation and dust concentrations are changed in turn. A closer agreement with proxy records is obtained only when both the Saharan vegetation changes and dust decrease are taken into account. The dust reduction strengthens the vegetation-albedo feedback, extending the monsoon's northern limit approximately 500 km further than the vegetation-change case only. We therefore conclude that accounting for changes in Saharan dust loadings is essential for improving model simulations of the WAM during the Mid-Holocene.

  12. Late Holocene SST and primary productivity variations in the northeastern Arabian Sea as a recorder for winter monsoon variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Böll, Anna; Gaye, Birgit; Lückge, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    Variability in the oceanic environment of the Arabian Sea region is strongly influenced by the seasonal monsoon cycle of alternating wind directions. Strong south-westerly winds during the summer monsoon induce upwelling of nutrient rich waters along the coast off Somalia, Oman and southwest India, which result in high rates of primary production. In the northeastern Arabian Sea off Pakistan on the other hand, primary production and sea surface temperatures are linked to northeast monsoonal winds that cool the sea surface and drive convective mixing and high surface ocean productivity during the winter season. In this study, we analyzed alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) variations and proxies of primary productivity (organic carbon and δ15N) in a well-laminated sediment core from the Pakistan continental margin to establish the first high-resolution record of winter monsoon variability for the late Holocene. Over the last 2400 years reconstructed SST in the northeastern Arabian Sea decreased whereas productivity increased, imaging a long-term trend of northeast monsoon strengthening in response to insolation-induced southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The comparison of our winter monsoon record with records of summer monsoon intensity suggests that summer and winter monsoon strength was essentially anti-correlated over the late Holocene throughout the Asian monsoon system. In addition, SST variations recorded off Pakistan match very well with Northern Hemisphere temperature records supporting the growing body of evidence that Asian climate is linked to Northern Hemisphere climate change. It reveals a consistent pattern of increased summer monsoon activity in the northeastern Arabian Sea during northern hemispheric warm periods (Medieval Warm Period, Roman Warm Period) and strengthened winter monsoon activity during hemispheric colder periods (Little Ice Age).

  13. Multi-decadal Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandeep, S.; Ravindran, A.

    2013-12-01

    The multi-decadal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) Rainfall in the fifth phase Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) climate model simulations is analyzed. Recent studies, suggest a slight weakening of the Indian precipitation as assessed from CMIP3 simulations. The ISM rainfall simulated by CMIP5 runs with all historical forcing (AF) also suggest a strong multi-decadal weakening trend in ISM precipitation during 1901 - 2005. Further, the decadal scale variability in ISM land precipitation in multi model ensemble of AF simulations is fairly comparable with the observed variability. However, these simulations show patterns of regional variability and trends within the monsoon domain. The CMIP5 ensembles with natural variability alone and those with only Green House Gas (GHG) forcing could not reproduce the observed variability in ISM precipitation. This suggests strong influence of anthropogenic aerosols on multi-decadal variability in ISM precipitation, which is consistent with previous findings. Further investigation revealed that the weakening of zonal winds in AF simulations, possibly due to aerosol induced weakening in land-ocean thermal contrast, resulted in reduced moisture transport from ocean to the land. The trends and variability of ISM in multi model ensemble of CMIP5 simulations will be discussed in detail.

  14. The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunning, C. M.; Turner, A. G.; Brayshaw, D. J.

    2015-06-01

    India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency's New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterized by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterized by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors in

  15. A new centennial index to study the Western North Pacific Monsoon decadal variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vega, Inmaculada; Gómez-Delgado, F. de Paula; Gallego, David; Ribera, Pedro; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; García-Herrera, Ricardo

    2016-04-01

    The concept of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) appeared for the first time in 1987. It is, unlike the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), an oceanic monsoon mostly driven by the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature. Its circulation is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented monsoon trough with intense precipitation and low-level southwesterlies and upper-tropospheric easterlies in the region [100°-130° E, 5°-15°N]. Up to now, the primary index to characterize the WNPSM has been the Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI) which covers the 1949-2013 period. The original WNPMI was defined as the difference of 850-hPa westerlies between two regions: D1 [5°-15°N, 100°-130°E] and D2 [20°-30°N, 110°-140°E]. Both domains are included in the main historical ship routes circumnavigating Asia for hundreds of years. Many of the logbooks of these ships have been preserved in historical archives and they usually contain daily observations of wind force and direction. Therefore, it has been possible to compute a new index of instrumental character, which reconstructs the WNPSM back to the middle of the 19th Century, by using solely historical wind direction records preserved in logbooks. We define the monthly Western North Pacific Directional Index (WNPDI) as the sum of the persistence of the low-level westerly winds in D1 and easterly winds in D2. The advantages of this new index are its nature (instrumental) and its length (1849-2013), which is 100 years longer than the WNPMI (which was based on reanalysis data). Our WNPDI shows a high correlation (r=+0.87, p<0.01) with the previous WNPMI in summer for the 1949-2009 period, thus allowing to study the multidecadal variability of the WNPSM in a more robust way. Our results show that the WNPDI has a strong impact on the precipitation in densely populated areas in South-East Asia, such as the Philippines or the west coast of Myanmar where the

  16. Volcanic forcing of monsoonal precipitation variability in selected modern volcanic eruptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yim, W. W.; Chan, J. C.

    2009-12-01

    An important characteristic of the monsoonal climate is the heavy summer precipitation and the winter drought brought about by the shift in wind circulation. For planet Earth to achieve greater future sustainability, a better understanding of precipitation variability in the densely populated monsoonal regions of the world is particularly critical. In the present study, three major modern tropical volcanic eruptions occurring over the past fifty years have been selected to investigate their influence on precipitation variability in the monsoonal region of southern China. The three eruptions are the February 1963 Agung eruption in Indonesia, the March 1982 El Chichón eruption in Mexico and the June 1991 Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines. Abnormally low annual precipitation was found in the southern China region during 1963 and 1991. Based on the annual precipitation at the Hong Kong Observatory Station, they were the driest and the tenth driest respectively since record began in 1884. In contrast, abnormally heavy precipitation was found in southern China in 1982 with the Hong Kong Observatory Station recording the second wettest year since record began. Based on the observed precipitation, near-field major volcanic eruptions located in the Indonesian-Pacific gateway may lead to abnormally dry conditions explained either by a shift and/or strengthening of predominantly offshore wind. Far-field major volcanic eruptions such as in the eastern Pacific may give rise to abnormally wet conditions through the global spread of the volcanic cloud. The El Chichón volcanic cloud was tracked by satellites across the Pacific Ocean and there is a match in the timing of heavy precipitation after the volcanic cloud entered the South China Sea about eleven days after the main eruption phase. Major volcanic eruptions are concluded to be a causative factor in monsoonal precipitation variability worthy of greater attention.

  17. Spatial and temporal variations in ecosystem response to monsoon precipitation variability in southwestern North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Feyen, Luc; Cescatti, Alessandro; Vivoni, Enrique R.

    2014-10-01

    Due to its marked vegetation phenology and precipitation gradients, the North American Monsoon Region (NAMR) is a useful domain for studying ecosystem responses to climate variability and change. To this end, we analyze long-term dynamics (1982-2004) in monsoon precipitation (Pr), time-integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (TINDVI) used as proxy of net primary productivity, and rain-use efficiency (RUE). The analysis focuses on six ecoregions, spanning from desert environments to tropical dry forests, to investigate (1) how net primary productivity and rain-use efficiency vary along a precipitation gradient, (2) if interannual variability in net primary productivity is linked to the interannual variability in precipitation, and (3) if there is evidence of a long-term signal imposed on the interannual variability in rain-use efficiency. Variations in TINDVI and RUE with Pr along the NAMR precipitation gradient differ among ecoregions exhibiting intensive or extensive water use strategies. We explain the nonlinear behaviors along the precipitation gradient as resulting from different physiological responses to climatological means and the impact of topographic effects. Statistical analysis indicates that the interannual variability in vegetation response is significantly related to the interannual variability in Pr, but their correlation declines with time. A long-term positive signal in RUE imposed on its interannual variability is identified and results from a constant TINDVI under negative long-term trends of Pr. This important finding suggests the combined long-term effects of ecosystem acclimation to reduced water availability and increasing CO2 concentration across the varied ecosystems of the North American Monsoon Region.

  18. Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model

    DOE PAGES

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin -Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubsmore » and an increase in surface air temperature.« less

  19. A High-Resolution Late Holocene Record of Rainfall From Lake Edward, Equatorial Africa: Linkages Between the African and Indian Monsoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russell, J. M.; Johnson, T. C.

    2005-12-01

    High-resolution analyses of the chemical composition of calcite and the biogenic silica content of sediments from piston cores spanning the past 3,500 years from Lake Edward, Uganda-Congo, document multidecadal to millennial-scale climate variability in the heart of equatorial Africa. Major drought events in the Lake Edward record occur at about 500, 850, 1500, ~2000, and 2700 cal yr BP, in addition to numerous other events of lesser magnitude/duration. Comparison of our record to other Holocene records of African lake levels suggests that most of these intervals of drought affected most of equatorial East Africa. However, wet conditions at about 500 cal yrs BP at sites to the east of Lake Edward could indicate spatial heterogeneity within the African continent during the "Little Ice Age", which could have resulted from complex interactions between the African (Atlantic) and Indian Ocean monsoons. Spectral analysis of our drought record, sampled at a 3-year step, shows evidence for numerous multidecadal to century-scale drought periods in the region. The periodicities observed do not appear linked to solar forcing; rather, periods of ~125, ~70, ~28, and ~18 years apparent in our record as well as other records from the Indian Ocean basin may arise from climate variability internal to the tropical oceans, in particular the Indo-Pacific. Lastly, the Lake Edward record suggests that the climate of equatorial Africa has been unusually stable and generally wet for the past ca. 100 years. This stability appears unusual in light of the considerable climate variability suggested by our record for the past several millennia, a finding with clear implications for East African societies.

  20. Feedback of observed interannual vegetation change: a regional climate model analysis for the West African monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, Cornelia; Bliefernicht, Jan; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Gessner, Ursula; Klein, Igor; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-06-01

    West Africa is a hot spot region for land-atmosphere coupling where atmospheric conditions and convective rainfall can strongly depend on surface characteristics. To investigate the effect of natural interannual vegetation changes on the West African monsoon precipitation, we implement satellite-derived dynamical datasets for vegetation fraction (VF), albedo and leaf area index into the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two sets of 4-member ensembles with dynamic and static land surface description are used to extract vegetation-related changes in the interannual difference between August-September 2009 and 2010. The observed vegetation patterns retain a significant long-term memory of preceding rainfall patterns of at least 2 months. The interannual vegetation changes exhibit the strongest effect on latent heat fluxes and associated surface temperatures. We find a decrease (increase) of rainy hours over regions with higher (lower) VF during the day and the opposite during the night. The probability that maximum precipitation is shifted to nighttime (daytime) over higher (lower) VF is 12 % higher than by chance. We attribute this behaviour to horizontal circulations driven by differential heating. Over more vegetated regions, the divergence of moist air together with lower sensible heat fluxes hinders the initiation of deep convection during the day. During the night, mature convective systems cause an increase in the number of rainy hours over these regions. We identify this feedback in both water- and energy-limited regions of West Africa. The inclusion of observed dynamical surface information improved the spatial distribution of modelled rainfall in the Sahel with respect to observations, illustrating the potential of satellite data as a boundary constraint for atmospheric models.

  1. Inter-annual Variability of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems in Reanalysis and Climate model Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Praveen, V.; Sandeep, S.; Ravindran, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    Monsoon Low Pressure Systems (LPS) play an important role in the Indian summer monsoon by bringing rainfall to the interior parts of Indian subcontinent. The detection and tracking of this weakly structured north north-west propagating system in reanalysis products and climate model simulations are challenging compared to the tropical and extra tropical cyclones. A robust method to objectively identify and track the LPS, which mimics the conventional LPS tracking technique, is presented. The algorithm showed its robustness in detecting and tracking LPS in ERA and MERRA reanalysis products. The algorithm fairly well captured inter-annual variability in ERA/MERRA LPSs against observations from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). An analysis of the LPS in historical CMPI5 model simulation reveal, the models' skill in simulating a realistic mean monsoon precipitation and its relation to the LPS activity. Further, this inter-model variability in the LPS is found to be linked to the mid-tropospheric stability over the Bay of Bengal region.

  2. Imprint of Historical Anthropogenic Emissions on the Subseasonal Variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, D.; Bollasina, M. A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2015-12-01

    The Indian Summer Monsoon system affects the lives of over a billion people, the majority of whom who depend on agricultural activities for their livelihood. During the monsoon season, the region experiences wet and dry spells associated with multiple modes of intraseasonal variability. Such subseasonal hydroclimatic extremes have important socio-economic implications. Based on 60 years of observational data, we will present evidence to show that the characteristics of these wet and dry spells have changed significantly over the historical period. We use targeted single forcing experiments with the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM3 coupled model to investigate the separate effect of aerosols and greenhouse gases on the observed long-term trends. The simulations consist of three-member ensemble experiments forced only by time-evolving anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gases, and natural forcings, and a five-member experiment with all forcings (natural and anthropogenic). Using these simulations, we show that anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases have had a substantial effect on total rainfall and subseasonal variability during the peak monsoon season, respectively. We will also discuss how increasing aerosols and greenhouse gas concentrations have influenced the wet and dry spell characteristics, and explain the physical mechanisms responsible for such changes.

  3. Study of intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon using a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maharana, P.; Dimri, A. P.

    2016-02-01

    The Indian summer monsoon season is very heterogeneous over Indian land mass from precipitation point of view. The intraseasonal variability of the rainfall during summer is marked by the active and break spells of the rainfall. The regional climate model version 4.0 (RegCM4.0) forced with European centre of medium range weather forecast interim reanalysis (ERA-Int) is used to examine the intraseasonal variability and meteorological processes associated with it. The model rightly represents the climatology of different fields such as the surface temperature, sea level pressure, lower level wind and the precipitation for monsoon season. The model captures the different active and break spells and the results are in agreement with the observed value and previous studies. The major features of the active/break periods, such as the positive/negative rainfall anomaly over the monsoon core region (MCR) and negative/positive rainfall anomaly over the foothills of Himalayas and southern part of India is nicely represented in the model. The model rightly reproduces the evolution of the active and break phase and also the revival from the break period by the northward propagation of active rainfall anomaly. The heat trough type of circulation is analysed in detail along with the atmospheric condition during active and break spell over the MCR. The atmospheric condition over MCR resembles the heat trough type circulation during break spells. The moisture availability, moisture-precipitation relation and their transition during active and break period over the MCR is established.

  4. Southeast Asian Monsoon variability may have assisted the rise and fall of the Khmer Empire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kweku Kyei Afrifa, Yamoah; Chabangborn, Akkaneewut; Chawchai, Sakonvan; Wohlfarth, Barbara; Smittenberg, Rienk

    2014-05-01

    Climate shifts with links to human migration and social change have contributed to the global rise and fall of ancient civilizations (Weiss et al 2001; Haug et al. 2003). At the same time, these civilizations also tend to influence their environment significantly (Buckley et. al, 2010). Here we use δ13C and δD data of long-chained n-alkanes to unravel the drivers of monsoon intensity and their potential effects on the Angkor civilization. Strong Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability from the Indo Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP), coupled to dramatic changes in the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is suggested as a potential driver of the monsoon variability in Southeast Asia over the last two millennia. Our dataset provides independent evidence that past vegetation in Southeast Asia was greatly influenced by the activities of the Angkor people at about AD 834 to 1431 when agricultural activities and extensive hydrological systems may have contributed immensely to change the vegetation type. The massive agricultural boom as a result of increase in monsoon intensity, along with an extensive hydrological system, may have contributed significantly to the rise of the Khmer Empire. However, a prolonged drought as a result of the gradual weakening of the monsoon intensity over time (AD 1375-2000) may have caused the water management system to fail thus contributing significantly to the demise of the Khmer empire. References B. M. Buckley et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 107, 6748 (2010). G. H. Haug et al., Science 299, 1731 (2003). H. Weiss, R. S. Bradley, Science 291, 609 (2001).

  5. Primary productivity and its variability in the equatorial South China Sea during the northeast monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ooi, S. H.; Samah, A. A.; Braesicke, P.

    2013-08-01

    Near coastal areas of the equatorial South China Sea (SCS) are one of the world's regions with highest primary productivity (phytoplankton growth). Concentrations of phytoplankton in the SCS depend significantly on atmospheric forcings and the oceanic state, in particular during the northeast (winter) monsoon season from November to March. Aided by new ocean-observing satellite data, we present a climatological overview of recent surface atmospheric and oceanic features in the equatorial SCS during the northeast monsoon to identify the dominant air-sea processes influencing and modulating the primary productivity of the region. Measured chlorophyll a concentrations are used as a proxy for phytoplankton amounts and the spatial and temporal variations are characterized according to meteorological conditions. Converging northeasterly surface winds support high chlorophyll a concentrations along East Malaysia's coastline in conjunction with a continual nutrient supply from the bottom of the continental shelf by vertical mixing. The mixing can be enhanced due to increased turbulence by wind-generated high waves when they approach shallow water from the deep basin during strong cold surges and monsoon disturbances. Intraseasonal variability during the winter monsoon is characterized by a coastal increase of chlorophyll a starting in November and peaking in January. A general decrease is observed in March. Interannual variability of chlorophyll a concentrations is influenced by ENSO (due to the known modulation of cold surge occurrences), with decreases during El Niño and increases during La Niña in early winter along the shore of East Malaysia. As an example, we discuss an enhanced phytoplankton growth event that occurred due to a typical cold surge-induced Borneo vortex event in January 2010.

  6. Analyse of direct and indirect effects of Saharan dust on convection and on the African monsoon circulation during the FENNEC project using WRF-CHEM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavaysse, Christophe; Flamant, Cyrille; Grabowski, Wojciech; Morisson, Hugh; Banks, Jamie

    2013-04-01

    The aim of this study is to analyse the local impacts of dust on convection and on the West African monsoon circulation. Using the regional models WRF-CHEM, different dust schemes have been tested to quantify the impacts of dust on convection and on the main components of the West African monsoon, such as the West African Heat Low (WAHL), African Easterly Waves (AEWs), monsoon and harmatan winds. The specific pre-onset period of the monsoon precipitation over the Sahel has been simulated, in 2011 during the FENNEC project. We have investigated a 15-day period from June 10th to 25th. During this period, high dust concentration over the Sahara has been detected using satellite observations and the WAHL settled in its summer Saharan location. In this study, we have observed that WRF-CHEM is able to reproduce dust outbreaks and transport as detected in the satellite and airborne observations. This study also highlights the two effects of dust on the monsoon circulation over the Sahara: a so-called direct effect associated with dust radiative heating, which increases the WAHL thickness, and a so called indirect effect that modifies mid-level and deep convection over the Sahel.

  7. Intraseasonal Variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon in the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2015-04-01

    The regional climate model COSMO-CLM driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data with a spatial resolution of 55km is used to simulate observed features of the intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during the period 1979 until 2011. One of these features is the northward propagation of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. We find, that the temporal evolution of this oscillation between model and observation is in good agreement, but the strength is less well simulated. Additionally, the models capability to simulate observed dry and wet events on a weekly time scale is investigated using the standardized precipitation index. In general, the model is capable to simulate these events with a similar magnitude at the same time, but we find a higher ability for dry compared to wet events. We hypothesize this is related to differences in the atmospheric circulation during dry and wet events. Analyses show, that dry events are characterized by a cyclonic vortex over India as well as an anti-cyclonic vortex over Pakistan region in 500hPa, whereas wet events are characterized by an anti-cyclonic vortex over India, only. It is found that COSMO-CLM has a higher ability to simulate the observed anomalous circulation over Pakistan region compared to observed anomalous circulation patterns over India. Overall, this study shows that the current configuration of COSMO-CLM is able to simulate key features of the intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon. Thus, under consideration of its limitations, COSMO-CLM is suitable to investigate possible changes of the intraseasonal variability of ISM under changed climate conditions.

  8. Organization of vertical shear of wind and daily variability of monsoon rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gouda, K. C.; Goswami, P.

    2016-10-01

    Very little is known about the mechanisms that govern the day to day variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall; in the current dominant view, the daily rainfall is essentially a result of chaotic dynamics. Most studies in the past have thus considered monsoon in terms of its seasonal (June-September) or monthly rainfall. We show here that the daily rainfall in June is associated with vertical shear of horizontal winds at specific scales. While vertical shear had been used in the past to investigate interannual variability of seasonal rainfall, rarely any effort has been made to examine daily rainfall. Our work shows that, at least during June, the daily rainfall variability of ISM rainfall is associated with a large scale dynamical coherence in the sense that the vertical shear averaged over large spatial extents are significantly correlated with area-averaged daily rainfall. An important finding from our work is the existence of a clearly delineated monsoon shear domain (MSD) with strong coherence between area-averaged shear and area-averaged daily rainfall in June; this association of daily rainfall is not significant with shear over only MSD. Another important feature is that the association between daily rainfall and vertical shear is present only during the month of June. Thus while ISM (June-September) is a single seasonal system, it is important to consider the dynamics and variation of June independently of the seasonal ISM rainfall. The association between large-scale organization of circulation and daily rainfall is suggested as a basis for attempting prediction of daily rainfall by ensuring accurate simulation of wind shear.

  9. Characterization of the impact of land degradation in the Sahel on the West African monsoon using an ensemble of climate models from the WAMME project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boone, A. A.; Xue, Y.; Ruth, C.; De Sales, F.; Hagos, S.; Mahanama, S. P. P.; Schiro, K.; Song, G.; Wang, G.; Koster, R. D.; Mechoso, C. R.

    2014-12-01

    There is increasing evidence from numerical studies that anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) can potentially induce significant variations on the regional scale climate. However, the magnitude of these variations likely depends on the local strength of the coupling between the surface and the atmosphere, the magnitude of the surface biophysical changes and how the key processes linking the surface with the atmosphere are parameterized within a particular model framework. One key hot-spot which has received considerable attention is the Sahelian region of West Africa, for which numerous studies have reported a significant increase in anthropogenic pressure on the already limited natural resources in this region, notably in terms of land use conversion and degradation. Thus, there is a pressing need to better understand the impacts of potential land degradation on the West African Monsoon (WAM) system. One of the main goals of the West African Monsoon Modeling andEvaluation project phase 2 (WAMMEII) is to provide basic understandingof LULCC on the regional climate over West Africa, and to evaluate thesensitivity of the seasonal variability of the WAM to LULCC. Theprescribed LULCC is based on recent 50 year period which represents amaximum feasible degradation scenario. In the current study, the LULCCis applied to five state of the art global climate models over afive-year period. The imposed LULCC results in a model-average 5-7%increase in surface albedo: the corresponding lower surface netradiation mainly results in a significant reduction in surfaceevaporation (upwards of 1 mm per day over a large part of the Sahel)which leads to less convective heating of the atmosphere, lowermoisture convergence, increased subsidence and reduced cloud coverover the LULCC zone. The overall impact can be characterized as asubstantial drought effect resulting in a reduction in annual rainfallof 20-40% in the Sahel and a southward shift of the monsoon. In

  10. Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El Niño and the West African monsoon.

    PubMed

    Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Woodruff, Jonathan D

    2007-05-24

    The processes that control the formation, intensity and track of hurricanes are poorly understood. It has been proposed that an increase in sea surface temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change has led to an increase in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones, but this proposal has been challenged on the basis that the instrumental record is too short and unreliable to reveal trends in intense tropical cyclone activity. Storm-induced deposits preserved in the sediments of coastal lagoons offer the opportunity to study the links between climatic conditions and hurricane activity on longer timescales, because they provide centennial- to millennial-scale records of past hurricane landfalls. Here we present a record of intense hurricane activity in the western North Atlantic Ocean over the past 5,000 years based on sediment cores from a Caribbean lagoon that contain coarse-grained deposits associated with intense hurricane landfalls. The record indicates that the frequency of intense hurricane landfalls has varied on centennial to millennial scales over this interval. Comparison of the sediment record with palaeo-climate records indicates that this variability was probably modulated by atmospheric dynamics associated with variations in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the strength of the West African monsoon, and suggests that sea surface temperatures as high as at present are not necessary to support intervals of frequent intense hurricanes. To accurately predict changes in intense hurricane activity, it is therefore important to understand how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the West African monsoon will respond to future climate change.

  11. Lake sediment records of late Holocene monsoon variability in western Nepal (preliminary results)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghazoui, Zakaria; Bertrand, Sebastien; Sachse, Dirk; Nomade, Jerome; Prasad Gajurel, Ananta; van der Beek, Peter

    2015-04-01

    In Nepal, high altitude paleoclimatological and limnological studies face many logistical challenges due to remoteness, accessibility, and altitude of potential lake sampling sites. Therefore, paleolimnological investigations in the Nepalese Himalaya remain scarce, and most of our understanding of past Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) variability relies on a low-density network of speleothems and ice cores. Here we report preliminary new data from three high-altitude lakes in the Nepal Himalaya. In order to improve our understanding of climate variability in western Nepal during the late Holocene three lakes were investigated and sampled in autumn 2014: Rara Lake, Mugu District; Phoksundo Lake, Dolpa District; Dhumba Lake, Mustang District. The sediment cores are being studied using a multi-proxy approach combining radiocarbon, 210Pb and 137Cs chronologies, physical properties (Geotek multi-sensor core logger), grain size (Malvern Mastersizer 3000) inorganic geochemistry (major and selected trace elements by ICP-AES and ITRAX XRF core scanning), bulk organic geochemistry (C, N concentrations and stable isotopes) and hydrogen isotopic composition of leaf wax long-chain n-alkanes (δDwax). These sediment records will provide important new insights into the late-Holocene variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon in Nepal, including the recent latitudinal shift of the rainbelt due to climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries.

  12. Intra-seasonal variability of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over India during summer monsoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravi Kumar, K.; Valsala, Vinu; Tiwari, Yogesh K.; Revadekar, J. V.; Pillai, Prasanth; Chakraborty, Supriyo; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2016-10-01

    In a study based on a data assimilation product of the terrestrial biospheric fluxes of CO2 over India, the subcontinent was hypothesized to be an anomalous source (sink) of CO2 during the active (break) spells of rain in the summer monsoon from June to September (Valsala et al., 2013). We test this hypothesis here by investigating intraseasonal variability in the atmospheric CO2 concentrations over India by utilizing a combination of ground-based and satellite observations and model outputs. The results show that the atmospheric CO2 concentration also varies in synchrony with the active and break spells of rainfall with amplitude of ±2 ppm which is above the instrumental uncertainty of the present day techniques of atmospheric CO2 measurements. The result is also consistent with the signs of the Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) flux anomalies estimated in our earlier work. The study thus offers the first observational affirmation of the above hypothesis although the data gap in the satellite measurements during monsoon season and the limited ground-based stations over India still leaves some uncertainty in the robust assertion of the hypothesis. The study highlights the need to capture these subtle variabilities and their responses to climate variability and change since it has implications for inverse estimates of terrestrial CO2 fluxes.

  13. Multi-proxy Evidence of Australian Summer Monsoon Variability During the Holocene: Links to the East-Asian Monsoon and the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffiths, M. L.; Drysdale, R. N.; Frisia, S.; Gagan, M.; Zhao, J.; Fischer, M.; Ayliffe, L.; Feng, Y.; St Pierre, E.; Hellstrom, J.; Hantoro, W.; Suwargadi, B.

    2008-12-01

    The Australian summer monsoon (ASM) is the dominant factor controlling rainfall variability and terrestrial productivity in northern Australia and the Indonesian archipelago. Understanding the mechanisms that influence its variability over different time-scales, and their teleconnections with other parts of the global climate system, has proven difficult because we lack high-resolution, precisely dated records of past monsoon behaviour. Linkages between the tropics and North Atlantic have been well documented north of the equator, but the degree to which these teleconnection patterns extend into the southern sub-equatorial tropics and their effects on the ASM are undocumented. We present a precisely dated, high-resolution oxygen isotope and trace element record of ASM variability from stalagmites located on Flores (east Indonesia) over the period 13 kyr B.P. to present. The multi-proxy records are constrained by over 30 TIMS and MC-ICP-MS U-series ages. The δ18O profile displays a gradual intensification of the ASM through the Holocene, which is in phase with precipitation changes in southern Brazil but antiphased with East Asian monsoon (EAM) intensity. The low frequency trend in the oxygen isotopes tracks changes in southern hemisphere summer insolation at 25° S located directly over the heat-low region of the Australian continent. Superimposed upon the δ18O trend are multi-decadal to centennial scale increased ASM events that occur concurrently (within dating errors) with periods of decreased EAM intensity and North Atlantic ice-rafting events. Thus, late-Pleistocene/Holocene cold events in the North Atlantic, related to reductions in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and variations in solar output, were associated with a southward migration of the ITCZ. While precessional forcing appears to be the dominant driver of ASM circulation over orbital time-scales, the high synchroneity between the Flores isotope variations and titanium (Ti) content of

  14. Monsoon variability, crop water requirement, and crop planning for kharif rice in Sagar Island, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.; Satpati, L. N.

    2015-12-01

    In the Sagar Island of Bay of Bengal, rainfed lowland rice is the major crop, grown solely depending on erratic distribution of southwest monsoon (SM) rainfall. Lack of information on SM rainfall variability and absence of crop scheduling accordingly results in frequent occurrence of intermittent water stress and occasional crop failure. In the present study, we analyzed long period (1982-2010) SM rainfall behavior (onset, withdrawal, rainfall and wetness indices, dry and wet spells), crop water requirement (CWR, by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) 56), and probability of weekly rainfall occurrence (by two-parameter gamma distribution) to assess the variability and impact on water availability, CWR, and rice productivity. Finally, crop planning was suggested to overcome monsoon uncertainties on water availability and rice productivity. Study revealed that the normal onset and withdrawal weeks for SM rainfall were 22nd ± 1 and 43rd ± 2 meteorological weeks (MW), respectively. However, effective monsoon rainfall started at 24th MW (rainfall 92.7 mm, p > 56.7 % for 50 mm rainfall) and was terminated by the end of 40th MW (rainfall 90.7 mm, p < 59.6 % for 50 mm rainfall). During crop growth periods (seed to seed, 21st to 45th MW), the island received an average weekly rainfall of 65.1 ± 25.9 mm, while the corresponding weekly CWR was 47.8 ± 5.4 mm. Despite net water surplus of 353.9 mm during crop growth periods, there was a deficit of 159.5 mm water during MW of 18-23 (seedling raising) and MW of 41-45 (flowering to maturity stages). Water stress was observed in early lag vegetative stage of crop growth (32nd MW). The total dry spell frequency during panicle initiation and heading stage was computed as 40 of which 6 dry spells were >7 days in duration and reflected a significant ( p < 0.05) increasing trend (at 0.22 days year-1) over the years (1982-2010). The present study highlights the adaptive capacity of crop planning including abiotic stress

  15. Mean state and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon simulation by NCEP CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shukla, Ravi P.; Huang, Bohua

    2016-06-01

    The capability of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is evaluated in the context of the global monsoon in the Indo-Pacific domain and its variability. Although the CFSv2 captures the ISM spatial structure qualitatively, it demonstrates a severe dry bias over the Indian subcontinent. The weaker model monsoon may be related to an excessive surface convergence over the equatorial Indian Ocean, which reduces the moisture transport toward the Indian subcontinent. The excessively low equatorial pressure is in turn a part of a tropical-wise bias with the largest errors in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific associated with the cold sea surface temperature bias and an overly strong inter-tropical convergence zone. In this sense, the model bias in the tropical Pacific influences those in the Indian Ocean-ISM region substantially. The leading mode of the June-September averaged CFSv2 rainfall anomalies covering the ISM and its adjacent oceanic regions is qualitatively similar to that of the observations, characterized by a spatial pattern of strong anomalies over either side of the Indian peninsula as well as center of opposite sign over Myanmar. However, the model fails to reproduce the northward expansion of rainfall anomalies from Myanmar, leading to opposite anomalies over northeast India and Himalayas region. A substantial amount of the anomalous fluctuation is attributed to the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although the model variability depends more strongly on ENSO. The active regional influences in the observations may contribute to its baroclinic vertical structure of the geopotential height anomalies in the ISM region, compared with the predominantly barotropic one in CFSv2. Model ENSO deficiencies also affects its ISM simulation significantly.

  16. Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2015-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

  17. Simulated impacts of afforestation in East China monsoon region as modulated by ocean variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Di; Notaro, Michael; Liu, Zhengyu; Chen, Guangshan; Liu, Yongqiang

    2013-11-01

    Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3.5, this paper examines the climatic effects of afforestation in the East China monsoon region with a focus on land-atmosphere interactions and the modulating influence of ocean variability. In response to afforestation, the local surface air temperature significantly decreases in summer and increases in winter. The summer cooling is attributed to enhanced evapotranspiration from increased tree cover. During winter, afforestation induces greater roughness and weaker winds over the adjacent coastal ocean, leading to diminished latent heat flux and increased sea-surface temperature (SST). The enhanced SST supports greater atmospheric water vapor, which is accompanied by anomalous wind, and transported into the East China monsoon region. The increase in atmospheric water vapor favors more cloud cover and precipitation, especially in the eastern afforestation region. Furthermore, the increase in atmospheric water vapor and cloud cover produce a greenhouse effect, raising the wintertime surface air temperature. By comparing simulations in which ocean temperature are either fixed or variable, we demonstrate that a significant hydrologic response in East China to afforestation only occurs if ocean temperatures are allowed to vary and the oceanic source of moisture to the continent is enhanced.

  18. Evolution and variability of the Indian Ocean summer monsoon: Evidence from the western Arabian sea drilling program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prell, Warren L.; Murray, David W.; Clemens, Steven C.; Anderson, David M.

    A number of forcing factors, including the tectonic evolution of Himalaya-Tibet and orbitally-induced changes in seasonal radiation, combine to cause the initiation, evolution, and variability of the Indian Ocean monsoon. Although climate model experiments can be used to estimate the variability attributed to each forcing factor, the only record of past monsoonal variation lies in the sediments of the northern Indian Ocean and the adjacent continents. A major goal of the regional survey cruise (RC27-04) and ODP Leg 117 was to recover the marine geologic record necessary to understand the history of the initiation, evolution and variability of the Indian Ocean summer monsoon and to provide an observational data set for comparison with model simulations of monsoon circulation. General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments show that orbitally-induced increases in solar radiation significantly strengthen the monsoon winds and precipitation over southern Asia, but that surface boundary conditions (including sea surface temperature, albedo) associated with glacial phases weaken monsoon winds and precipitation. Experiments with full (modem elevations) and reduced plateau-mountain elevations reveal stronger winds and higher precipitation as mountain elevation increases. These results indicate that monsoon strength is equally sensitive to changes in solar radiation (on orbital time scales) and orographic changes (on longer time scales). They also indicate that global cooling cannot intensify the monsoon, so that the onset of the monsoon is most likely related to increased mountain elevation. Sediments in the northwest Arabian Sea exhibit characteristic fauna (radiolarians and foraminifers) that are endemic to areas of strong upwelling. In the Arabian Sea, intense seasonal upwelling is induced by the southwesterly monsoon winds. Miocene to Recent sediments from the northwest Arabian Sea show distinct geochemical and biological changes which suggest that monsoonal upwelling

  19. Sensitivity of the African and Asian Monsoons to Mid-Holocene Insolation and Data-Inferred Surface Changes.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Texier, Delphine; de Noblet, Nathalie; Braconnot, Pascale

    2000-01-01

    Orbital forcing alone is not sufficient to explain the massive northward penetration of monsoon rains in Africa shown by data during the mid-Holocene (6000 yr ago). Feedbacks associated with changes in SSTs and land surface cover may be necessary to produce a sufficient increase in the monsoon. A step toward a better understanding of the respective role of oceans and land surfaces is to design sensitivity studies with prescribed forcings, inferred from observations. In the first study, SSTs are lowered in the upwelling regions offshore of West Africa and Somalia, and increased in the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. In the second simulation, the modern Sahara desert is replaced by a combination of xerophytic woods/scrub and grassland.In both cases the amount of water vapor advected from oceanic sources is increased north of 10°N in Africa in response to the increased land-sea temperature contrast, thereby enhancing rainfall. But the magnitude of the simulated changes is much larger when land surface is modified. The lower albedo (compared to desert) increases the amount of radiation absorbed by the surface in northern Africa and warms it up, and the larger roughness length increases both the sensible and latent heat fluxes. Moreover, vegetation is more efficient in recycling water than a bare soil, and the release of latent heat in the atmosphere increases convection, which in turn helps maintain the onshore oceanic advection. The monsoon season is then lengthened by 1-2 months compared to all other simulations reported in the paper.The intensity of monsoon rains is also modified in Asia in both sensitivity experiments. Warmer SSTs in the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea reduce the land-sea contrast and therefore the inland penetration of monsoon rains. Changes in the position of the main large-scale convergence area in the case of a green Sahara enhances the precipitation in India.Changes are also discussed in terms of atmospheric circulation. For example, the

  20. Sensitivity of the simulated African monsoon of summers 1993 and 1999 to convective parameterization schemes in RegCM3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tchotchou, L. A. Djiotang; Kamga, F. Mkankam

    2010-03-01

    In this study, the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) was used to investigate the sensitivity of the simulation of the West African monsoon using four different cumulus and closures parameterization schemes of Anthes Kuo (AK), Grell and Fristish Chappell (GFC), Grell and Arakawa Schubert (GAS), and MIT-Emmanuel (EM) while maintaining other physical packages unchanged. The contrasting monsoon years of 1993 and 1999, which were dry and wet years, respectively, were simulated. The model was integrated from a period of 5 months, starting from May 1 to September 30 of each year using the European Centre for Medium-Range-Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis data (ERA40) as input boundary conditions. The 6-hourly reanalysis data were used to provide the lateral boundary conditions, and the observed weekly Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature interpolated to 6 h was used as the lower boundary forcing. The results show that in West Africa, monsoon precipitations are sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and closure schemes. None of the schemes is able to simulate the monsoon rainfall accurately, and furthermore, there is little difference in behavior among schemes between dry and wet years. The spatial features of precipitation are not identical among schemes, although they all show a northward shift of the rain bands, giving a very wet Sahel and dry Guinean Coast. The GFC and EM schemes are able to capture the diurnal cycle of precipitation and the zonal averages of stratiform rain fractions as observed in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), although they overestimated rainfall amounts. The most important deficiencies, however, cannot be attributed to the schemes. In particular, the northward shift of both the rain band and the AEJ in RegCM3 is the result of unrealistic soil moisture resulting from the way albedo is parameterized, leading to an excessive northward penetration of monsoon flow. A

  1. Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene variability and the role of insolation, ENSO, and the North American Monsoon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, Lesleigh

    2012-01-01

    Over the period of instrumental records, precipitation maximum in the headwaters of the Colorado Rocky Mountains has been dominated by winter snow, with a substantial degree of interannual variability linked to Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. High-elevation snowpack is an important water storage that is carefully observed in order to meet increasing water demands in the greater semi-arid region. The purpose here is to consider Rocky Mountain water trends during the Holocene when known changes in earth's energy balance were caused by precession-driven insolation variability. Changes in solar insolation are thought to have influenced the variability and intensity of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North American Monsoon and the seasonal precipitation balance between rain and snow at upper elevations. Holocene records are presented from two high elevation lakes located in northwest Colorado that document decade-to-century scale precipitation seasonality for the past ~ 7000 years. Comparisons with sub-tropical records of ENSO indicate that the snowfall-dominated precipitation maxima developed ~ 3000 and 4000 years ago, coincident with evidence for enhanced ENSO/PDO dynamics. During the early-to-mid Holocene the records suggest a more monsoon affected precipitation regime with reduced snowpack, more rainfall, and net moisture deficits that were more severe than recent droughts. The Holocene perspective of precipitation indicates a far broader range of variability than that of the past century and highlights the non-linear character of hydroclimate in the U.S. west.

  2. Role of aerosols on the Indian Summer Monsoon variability, as simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cagnazzo, Chiara; Biondi, Riccardo; D'Errico, Miriam; Cherchi, Annalisa; Fierli, Federico; Lau, William K. M.

    2016-04-01

    Recent observational and modeling analyses have explored the interaction between aerosols and the Indian summer monsoon precipitation on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. By using global scale climate model simulations, we show that when increased aerosol loading is found on the Himalayas slopes in the premonsoon period (April-May), intensification of early monsoon rainfall over India and increased low-level westerly flow follow, in agreement with the elevated-heat-pump (EHP) mechanism. The increase in rainfall during the early monsoon season has a cooling effect on the land surface that may also be amplified through solar dimming (SD) by more cloudiness and aerosol loading with subsequent reduction in monsoon rainfall over India. We extend this analyses to a subset of CMIP5 climate model simulations. Our results suggest that 1) absorbing aerosols, by influencing the seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon with the discussed time-lag, may act as a source of predictability for the Indian Summer Monsoon and 2) if the EHP and SD effects are operating also in a number of state-of-the-art climate models, their inclusion could potentially improve seasonal forecasts.

  3. Variability of the Somali current system during the onset of the Southwest Monsoon, 1979

    SciTech Connect

    Schott, F.; Quadfasel, D.R.

    1982-12-01

    An array of six current-meter moorings and several coastal temperature recorders was deployed on the shelf and continental slope off northern Somalia from March to July 1979; a seventh mooring was placed near 2/sup 0/S. In addition, four deep-sea moorings were deployed for a period of one month in May--June farther offshore. Already during the late northeast monsoon in March the Somali Current north of 5/sup 0/N was flowing northeastward in the top 150 m. Underneath, in the depth range 150--400 m, a narrow southward undercurrent was observed from March to June. After the first onset of the southwest monsoon, which occurred around 5 May when winds shifted from easterly to southwesterly parallel to the coast, the near-surface temperatures on the shelf decreased immediately with no detectable phase difference between 6 and 10/sup 0/N, but no change was observed in the offshore circulation pattern. The final monsoon onset around 10 June was characterized by a drastic increase in wind speeds and the establishment of a strong anticyclonic wind-stress curl over the northern Somali Basin. The current measurements showed that within a few days after this onset the northern Somali gyre spun up over the deep sea and then propagated northwestward toward the coast with a speed of 12 cm s/sup -1/. These findings are in good agreement with results of satellite infrared imagery. The observed gyre kinematics can be explained by locally generated non-equatorial Rossby waves. When the onset reaches the coast the shallow coastal undercurrent is extinguished. Superimposed on the gyre-scale variability were fluctuations in the period ranges of weeks to months and of 3--5 days. There is evidence that the energies of the latter were related to the development of the Somali Current. Significant differences were found in a comparison of the 1979 current measurements south of the equator with observations obtained there during the monsoon onset of 1976.

  4. Rock magnetic records of Southeast Asian monsoon variability during the past 800 kyr

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suganuma, Y.; Yamazaki, T.; Kanamatsu, T.

    2007-12-01

    Rock magnetic investigations were carried out on a sedimentary core taken from the Ninety-east ridge, the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in order to reconstruct the South Asia monsoon variability during the past 800 kyr. A 10.2 m long piston core ? MR0503-PC3 was recovered in August 2005 during the R/V Mirai MR0503 cruise. The core site is located in the western flank of the Ninety-east ridge (1×E 13.2'N, 88×E 26.0'E), and water depth is 4400 m. In order to develop an age model for the MR0503-PC3 core, a relative paleointensity record (NRM30mT/IRM30mT) obtained from the core is correlated with the global stack of relative paleointensity records &Sint-? (Guyodo and Valet, 1999). Based on the developed age model, the age of the bottom of the MR0503-PC3 core is ca. 800 ka and an average sedimentation rate is 1.3 cm/kyr. A suite of rock magnetic parameters (Magnetic Susceptibility, IRM, ARM, Mrs/Ms, and S-ratio) was obtained from discrete samples collected from the half-split of the core. Magnetic Susceptibility, IRM, and ARM are used as proxies for the magnetic mineral flux. Mrs/Ms and S-ratio are used as proxies for mean grain size and magnetic mineralogical parameter, respectively. The results show that a magnetic mineral flux increases during warmer periods, whereas the flux decreases during colder periods. On the other hand, magnetic grain size increases during colder periods and decreases during warmer periods. These indicate that a supply of fine-grained magnetite (or maghemite), probably originated to pedogenesis, increases during warmer periods, suggesting intense precipitation related to the South Asian summer monsoon. During MIS 15 to 11, stepwise increases of the magnetic mineral flux accompanied with sudden drops of S-ratios are recognized. The sudden drop of S-ratio is related to intense inputs of coarse-grained hematite and maghemite, probably originated to the chemical weathering of the Himalaya-Tibet plateau. This feature suggests that

  5. Extratropical Influences on the Inter-Annual Variability of South-Asian Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Syed, F. S.; Yoo, J.; Körnich, H.; Kucharski, F.

    2010-12-01

    The effects of extratropical dynamics on the interannual variations in South-Asian Monsoon are examined. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, conditional maximum covariance analysis is performed on sea level pressure, 200 hPa geopotential heights and the south Asian monsoon (SAM) rainfall by removing the linear effects of El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the reanalysis fields. Summer North Atlantic Oscillation-SNAO(ENSO) index are defined as the principal component of first EOF of SLP(SST) over north Atlantic(Pacific) for July-August. The classification of 3 cells of the Circumglobal Teleconnection (CGT) pattern at 200 hPa level, located over the northeast Atlantic, Europe and northwest of India and Pakistan revealed that the SNAO is also significantly influencing the north western parts of SAM along with CGT. However CGT is linearly independent of SNAO. It is found that CGT(SNAO) is the leading(second) mode in the extratropics responsible for primary variability in SAM. Although both modes produce similar 200 hPa geopotential anomalies in the northeast Atlantic but the responses are different in the SAM rainfall. We quantified the relative influence of SNAO and CGT on the variance of SAM rainfall and proposed the dynamical mechanism for the effects of SNAO on SAM.

  6. Precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon heat low and associated teleconnections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saeed, Sajjad; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Hagemann, Stefan; Jacob, Daniela; Mujumdar, M.; Krishnan, R.

    2011-04-01

    The present study examines the precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon heat low region and associated teleconnections using high resolution (T106L31) climate simulations performed with the ECHAM5 model. It is found that an intensification of the heat low in response to enhanced precipitation/convection over northwestern India-Pakistan (NWIP) can induce large-scale circulation anomalies that resemble the northern summer circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) wave-like pattern extending well into the Asian monsoon region. Accordingly the wave-like response to rainfall increase over the heat low region is associated with anomalous ascent over northern China and descent over the South China Sea. Additionally, small but statistically significant lead-lag correlations between the heat low and precipitation over northern China further suggest that the detected signal pertains to the true features of the process. On the other hand, suppressed convection and rainfall over the heat low region do not reveal any significant large-scale circulation anomalies.

  7. Intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon: wet and dry events in COSMO-CLM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Cubasch, U.

    2016-10-01

    This study aims to validate the widely used regional climate model COSMO-CLM driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data with a spatial resolution of 55 km with respect to observed features of the intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during the period 1979 until 2011. One of these features is the northward propagation of the ISM intraseasonal oscillations. We find, that the temporal evolution between model and observation is in good agreement, while less agreement with respect to the strength is found. Furthermore, the model's capability to simulate observed dry and wet events on a weekly time-scale is investigated using the standardized precipitation index. In general, the model is capable to simulate these events with a similar magnitude at the same time. Observational based analyses show, that the coupling between atmospheric circulation anomalies and rainfall anomalies over India on the intraseasonal time scale is well represented by the model. The most important circulation anomalies for dry events are a lower tropospheric anti-cyclonic vortex over India and partly an upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex over the Pakistan region and vice versa for wet events. The model shows a slightly higher ability to simulate dry compared to wet events. Overall, this study shows that the current configuration of COSMO-CLM is able to simulate the key features of the intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon. Being aware of its limitation, COSMO-CLM is suitable to investigate possible changes of the intraseasonal variability of ISM under changed climate conditions in the past or in the future.

  8. Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

  9. Interannual variability in Wyrtki jets and its impact on Indian Summer Monsoon circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deshpande, A.; Gnanaseelan, C.

    2013-12-01

    The interannual variability of the Wyrtki jets is studied using an OGCM for the period of 1958-2009. The first two modes of an EOF decomposition account for about 75% and 11% of variability in zonal currents along the equator in the Indian Ocean. The boreal fall (October-November) Wyrtki jet is more significantly affected than the boreal spring (May) Wyrtki jet by IOD and ENSO forcing since they tend to peak toward the end of the calendar year. It is found that the interannual variability in spring jets is driven partly by El Niño forcing and partly due to the variations in the latitude at which the southeasterly winds turn westerly. The springtime subsidence over East Africa primarily determines the strength of the zonal pressure gradient along the equator which is important for determining the latitude of recurvature of southeasterly winds. The variability of Wyrtki jets affects the spring and fall rainfall over East Africa through modulations in the Walker circulation. The thermocline and SST variations in east equatorial Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal are also primarily induced by the variability in these jets. The impact of Wyrtki jets on Indian Summer monsoon circulation is evident via changes in the thermal structure over north Indian Ocean. The spring jets affect the thermal structure in the Bay of Bengal, while the influence of fall jets extends up to Bay of Bengal as well as southeastern Arabian Sea through wave propagation.

  10. Simulation skill of APCC set of global climate models for Asian summer monsoon rainfall variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, U. K.; Singh, G. P.; Singh, Vikas

    2015-04-01

    The performance of 11 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) global climate models (coupled and uncoupled both) in simulating the seasonal summer (June-August) monsoon rainfall variability over Asia (especially over India and East Asia) has been evaluated in detail using hind-cast data (3 months advance) generated from APCC which provides the regional climate information product services based on multi-model ensemble dynamical seasonal prediction systems. The skill of each global climate model over Asia was tested separately in detail for the period of 21 years (1983-2003), and simulated Asian summer monsoon rainfall (ASMR) has been verified using various statistical measures for Indian and East Asian land masses separately. The analysis found a large variation in spatial ASMR simulated with uncoupled model compared to coupled models (like Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Japan Meteorological Agency). The simulated ASMR in coupled model was closer to Climate Prediction Centre Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) compared to uncoupled models although the amount of ASMR was underestimated in both models. Analysis also found a high spread in simulated ASMR among the ensemble members (suggesting that the model's performance is highly dependent on its initial conditions). The correlation analysis between sea surface temperature (SST) and ASMR shows that that the coupled models are strongly associated with ASMR compared to the uncoupled models (suggesting that air-sea interaction is well cared in coupled models). The analysis of rainfall using various statistical measures suggests that the multi-model ensemble (MME) performed better compared to individual model and also separate study indicate that Indian and East Asian land masses are more useful compared to Asia monsoon rainfall as a whole. The results of various statistical measures like skill of multi-model ensemble, large spread

  11. The middle Holocene climatic records from Arabia: Reassessing lacustrine environments, shift of ITCZ in Arabian Sea, and impacts of the southwest Indian and African monsoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enzel, Yehouda; Kushnir, Yochanan; Quade, Jay

    2015-06-01

    A dramatic increase in regional summer rainfall amount has been proposed for the Arabian Peninsula during the middle Holocene (ca. 9-5 ka BP) based on lacustrine sediments, inferred lake levels, speleothems, and pollen. This rainfall increase is considered primarily the result of an intensified Indian summer monsoon as part of the insolation-driven, northward shift of the boreal summer position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to over the deserts of North Africa, Arabia, and northwest India. We examine the basis for the proposed drastic climate change in Arabia and the shifts in the summer monsoon rains, by reviewing paleohydrologic lacustrine records from Arabia. We evaluate and reinterpret individual lake-basin status regarding their lacustrine-like deposits, physiography, shorelines, fauna and flora, and conclude that these basins were not occupied by lakes, but by shallow marsh environments. Rainfall increase required to support such restricted wetlands is much smaller than needed to form and maintain highly evaporating lakes and we suggest that rainfall changes occurred primarily at the elevated edges of southwestern, southern, and southeastern Arabian Peninsula. These relatively small changes in rainfall amounts and local are also supported by pollen and speleothems from the region. The changes do not require a northward shift of the Northern Hemisphere summer ITCZ and intensification of the Indian monsoon rainfall. We propose that (a) latitudinal and slight inland expansion of the North African summer monsoon rains across the Red Sea, and (b) uplifted moist air of this monsoon to southwestern Arabia highlands, rather than rains associated with intensification of Indian summer monsoon, as proposed before, increased rains in that region; these African monsoon rains produced the modest paleo-wetlands in downstream hyperarid basins. Furthermore, we postulate that as in present-day, the ITCZ in the Indian Ocean remained at or near the equator all

  12. Predictability of the East Asian winter monsoon interannual variability as indicated by the DEMETER CGCMS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Fei; Wang, Huijun

    2012-05-01

    The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER) hindcasts was evaluated against observation reanalysis data. We evaluated the DEMETER coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)' retrospective prediction of the typical EAWM and its associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that the EAWM can be reasonably predicted with statistically significant accuracy, yet the major bias of the hindcast models is the underestimation of the related anomalies. The temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) of the MME-produced EAWM index, defined as the first EOF mode of 850-hPa air temperature within the EAWM domain (20°-60°N, 90°-150°E), was 0.595. This coefficient was higher than those of the corresponding individual models (range: 0.39-0.51) for the period 1969-2001; this result indicates the advantage of the super-ensemble approach. This study also showed that the ensemble models can reasonably reproduce the major modes and their interannual variabilities for sea level pressure, geopotential height, surface air temperature, and wind fields in Eurasia. Therefore, the prediction of EAWM interannual variability is feasible using multimodel ensemble systems and that they may also reveal the associated mechanisms of the EAWM interannual variability.

  13. Past variability of the Mexican Monsoon from ultrahigh resolution records in the Gulf of California for the last 6 Ka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herguera, J.; Nava, C.; Hangsterfer, A.

    2013-05-01

    The Mexican monsoon is part of the larger North American Monsoon regime results from an interplay between the ocean, atmosphere and continental topography though there is an ongoing debate as to the relative importance of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the NE tropical Pacific warm water lens region, solar radiation variability, land snow cover and soil moisture over the Western North America mountain ranges and the strength and spatial patterns of the dominant winds. The links between these factors and the monsoonal variability appear to be of variable importance during the short instrumental record. This hampers any prediction on the future evolution of the climatic regime in a warming climate. The terrigenous component in very-high sedimentation rate sediments on the margin of the Gulf of California links monsoonal precipitation patterns on land with the varying importance of the lithogenic component in this margin sediments. The relatively high importance of the lithogenic component (>80%) of these sediments attests to the fidelity of this repository to the terrigenous input to this margin environment. Here we use the elemental composition of these margin sediments, as a proxy for the lithogenic component in a collection of box and kasten cores from Pescadero basin. This basin located in the southeastern region of the Gulf of California (24N, 108W) shows a strong tropical influence during the summer, as part of the northernmost extension of the eastern tropical Pacific warm water lens region. A period when the southwestern winds bring moist air masses inland enhancing the monsoonal rains on the eastern reaches of Sierra Madre Occidental. Here we present some new XRF results where we explore the relationships between different elemental ratios in these sediments and the available historical record and several paleo-reconstructions to evaluate the possible links between external forcings and internal feedback effects, to explain the evolution of the monsoon in

  14. South Asian summer monsoon variability during the last ˜54 kyrs inferred from surface water salinity and river runoff proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebregiorgis, D.; Hathorne, E. C.; Sijinkumar, A. V.; Nath, B. Nagender; Nürnberg, D.; Frank, M.

    2016-04-01

    The past variability of the South Asian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea while high-resolution paleorecords from regions of strong monsoon precipitation are still lacking. Here, we present records of past monsoon variability obtained from sediment core SK 168/GC-1, which was collected at the Alcock Seamount complex in the Andaman Sea. We utilize the ecological habitats of different planktic foraminiferal species to reconstruct freshwater-induced stratification based on paired Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses and to estimate seawater δ18O (δ18Osw). The difference between surface and thermocline temperatures (ΔT) and δ18Osw (Δδ18Osw) is used to investigate changes in upper ocean stratification. Additionally, Ba/Ca in G. sacculifer tests is used as a direct proxy for riverine runoff and sea surface salinity (SSS) changes related to monsoon precipitation on land. Our Δδ18Osw time series reveals that upper ocean salinity stratification did not change significantly throughout the last glacial suggesting little influence of NH insolation changes. The strongest increase in temperature gradients between the mixed layer and the thermocline is recorded for the mid-Holocene and indicate the presence of a significantly shallower thermocline. In line with previous work, the δ18Osw and Ba/Ca records demonstrate that monsoon climate during the LGM was characterized by a significantly weaker southwest monsoon circulation and strongly reduced runoff. Based on our data the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SAM) over the Irrawaddyy strengthened gradually after the LGM beginning at ∼18 ka. This is some 3 kyrs before an increase of the Ba/Ca record from the Arabian Sea and indicates that South Asian Monsoon climate dynamics are more complex than the simple N-S displacement of the ITCZ as generally described for other regions. Minimum δ18Osw values recorded during the mid-Holocene are in phase with Ba/Ca marking a stronger monsoon precipitation

  15. Mid- to late Holocene Indian Ocean Monsoon variability recorded in four speleothems from Socotra Island, Yemen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Rampelbergh, Maïté; Fleitmann, Dominik; Verheyden, Sophie; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, Lawrence; De Geest, Peter; De Vleeschouwer, David; Burns, Stephen J.; Matter, Albert; Claeys, Philippe; Keppens, Eddy

    2013-04-01

    Four stalagmites covering the last 7.0 ka were sampled on Socotra, an island in the northern Indian Ocean to investigate the evolution of the northeast Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) since the mid Holocene. On Socotra, rain is delivered at the start of the southwest IOM in May-June and at the start of the northeast IOM from September to December. The Haggeher Mountains act as a barrier forcing precipitation brought by the northeast winds to fall preferentially on the eastern side of the island, where the studied caves are located. δ18O and δ13C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca signals in the stalagmites reflect precipitation amounts brought by the northeast winds. For stalagmite STM6, this amount effect is amplified by kinetic effects during calcite deposition. Combined interpretation of the stalagmites' signals suggest a weakening of the northeast precipitation between 6.0 and 3.8 ka. After 3.8 ka precipitation intensities remain constant with two superimposed drier periods, between 0 and 0.6 ka and from 2.2 to 3.8 ka. No link can be established with Greenland ice cores and with the summer IOM variability. In contrast to the stable northeast rainy season suggested by the records in this study, speleothem records from western Socotra indicate a wettening of the southwest rainy season on Socotra after 4.4 ka. The local wettening of western Socotra could relate to a more southerly path (more over the Indian Ocean) taken by the southwest winds. Stalagmite STM5, sampled at the fringe between both rain areas displays intermediate δ18O values. After 6.2 ka, similar precipitation changes are seen between eastern Socotra and northern Oman indicating that both regions are affected similarly by the monsoon. Different palaeoclimatologic records from the Arabian Peninsula currently located outside the ITCZ migration pathway display an abrupt drying around 6 ka due to their disconnection from the southwest rain influence. Records that are nowadays still receiving rain by the southwest winds

  16. South Asian monsoon variability during the past 800 kyr revealed by rock magnetic proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suganuma, Y.; Yamazaki, T.; Kanamatsu, T.

    2009-05-01

    A rock magnetic investigation was carried out on a sedimentary core taken from the distal portion of the Bengal Fan in order to reconstruct the South Asian monsoon variability during the past 800 kyr. The 10.2 m long piston core MR0503-PC3, recovered at a water depth of 4400 m, consists of clay to silty clay with minor amounts of nannofossils. An age model for the MR0503-PC3 core is established by correlating a relative paleointensity record of the core [Suganuma Y., Yamazaki, T., Kanamatsu, T., Hokanishi, N., 2008. Relative paleointensity record during the last 800 kyr from the equatorial Indian Ocean: implication for relationship between inclination and intensity variations. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems. 9, Q02011. doi:10.1029/2007GC001723.] to the global paleointensity stack "Sint-800" [Guyodo, Y., Valet, J.P., 1999. Global changes in intensity of the Earth's magnetic field during the past 800 kyr. Nature. 399, 249-252.]. The age model is consistent with the published ages of tephra layers intercalated in the core, and shows continuous sedimentation during the past 800 kyr. Temporal variations in rock magnetic proxies for the magnetic concentration (ARM, IRM, and HIRM), the grain size (Mrs/Ms), and the composition (S -0.3T and S -0.1T) show that the amount of fine-grained magnetite increased during interglacial stages, and then gradually decreased toward the following glacial maxima. This indicates that the supply of fine-grained magnetite probably originated from areal expansion and/or increased pedogenic activity in the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers catchment. Increases during warmer periods suggest intensification of the South Asian summer monsoon during interglacial stages. During marine isotope stages (MIS) 15-11, enhancement of fine-grained magnetite and increased hematite and maghemite contributions are observed. These suggest a significant intensification of the South Asian summer monsoon during this period. Our record and other paleoclimatic

  17. Nong Thale Pron - a key site from southern Thailand for studying monsoon variability during the past 15000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bredberg, Camilla; Chawchai, Sakonvan; Chabangborn, Akkaneewut; Kylander, Malin; Fritz, Sherilyn; Reimer, Paula J.; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2014-05-01

    Studies of marine sediments, cave speleothemes, annually laminated corals, and tree rings from Asian monsoon regions have added knowledge to our understanding of the factors that control inter-annual to millennial monsoon variability in the past and have provided important constraints for climate modeling scenarios. In contrast, the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-millennial scale monsoon variability and its impact on land cover in SE Asia are still unresolved. This shortcoming stems from the fact that temporally well-resolved paleo-environmental studies are missing from large parts of SE Asia, especially from Thailand. Given that global and regional climate models are increasingly using terrestrial paleo- data to test their performance, past changes in land cover are therefore important variables to better understand feedbacks between different Earth systems. We obtained sediments from Lake Nong Thale Pron, in southern Thailand (8º 10`N, 99 º23`E; 380 m.asl). The aim of our study is to reconstruct lake status changes and to evaluate whether the extent of these changes are linked to known shifts in monsoon intensity and variability. Preliminary results show that lake infilling started more than 15,000 years ago and that the sediments cover the last deglaciation and the Holocene. Current analyses include Itrax XRF core scanning, loss-on-ignition (LOI at 950 and 550ºC), CN elemental and isotopic composition. We expect that our results will be able to give a picture of how the lake's status has changed over time and whether the extent of these changes is linked to known shifts in monsoon intensity and variability.

  18. Extratropical influences on the inter-annual variability of South-Asian monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Syed, F. S.; Yoo, J. H.; Körnich, H.; Kucharski, F.

    2012-04-01

    The effects of extratropical dynamics on the interannual variations in South-Asian Monsoon (SAM) are examined. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and CRU precipitation data, a conditional maximum covariance analysis is performed on sea level pressure, 200 hPa geopotential heights and the SAM rainfall by removing the linear effects of El-Niño Southern Oscillation from the fields. It is found that two modes provide a strong connection between the upper-level circulation in the Atlantic/European region and SAM rainfall: the Circumglobal Teleconnection (CGT) and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). The structures in the 200 hPa heights of both modes in the Atlantic region are similar in the Atlantic region, and their southeastward extension to South Asia (SA) also corresponds to upper-level ridges (in their positive phases) in slightly different positions. Nevertheless, the influence of both modes on SAM rainfall is distinct. Whereas a positive CGT is related to a widespread increase of rainfall in SAM, a positive SNAO is related to a precipitation dipole with its positive phase over Pakistan and the negative phase over northern India. The physical mechanisms for the influence of CGT and SNAO on SAM are related to the upper-level geopotential anomaly which affects the amplitude and position of the low-level convergence. The small displacements of the centers of these responses and the low level cold advection from the north east of SA in case of SNAO explain the differences in the corresponding SAM rainfall distributions. These findings are confirmed with the relatively high-resolution coupled climate model EC-Earth, which gives confidence in the physical basis and robustness of these extratropical variability modes and their influence on the South-Asian monsoon rainfall.

  19. Spatial Reconstructions of Asian Monsoon Climate Variability Over the Past Millennium from Long Tree-Ring Records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, E. R.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Buckley, B. M.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Jacoby, G. C.; Wright, W. E.

    2008-12-01

    We present the first spatial reconstructions of Asian monsoon climate variability over the past millennium from long tree-ring records. The reconstructions, for both the monsoon (JJA) and pre-monsoon (MAM) seasons, are based on a 534-point grid of instrumental Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI) covering all of monsoon Asia and an irregular network of 312 annual tree-ring chronologies over most of the same domain. The seasonal reconstructions were initially estimated at each grid point using a local "point-by-point regression" (PPR) method that has been used successfully in reconstructing drought over North America. Different levels of predictor variable screening applied in PPR produced a 5-member ensemble of reconstructions for each season. The estimated noise level in these reconstructions was relatively high (average cross-validation R2 over the 534 grid point domain typically <0.30). In addition, the lengths of the grid point reconstructions varied over space due to the variable length tree-ring series available for use in PPR. For these reasons, each ensemble member was iteratively refined using a local variant of PPR to improve its reconstructions, with missing values imputed as necessary, to produce complete fields extending back to AD 1000 over all 534 grid point locations. An ensemble average for each season, with estimated uncertainties, was then calculated and used for analysis. The reconstructions reveal the occurrence of some persistent "megadroughts" in the past that appear to be unprecedented in the instrumental records. These megadroughts are not restricted to any particular part of "Monsoon Asia", but the ones in Southeast Asia stand out particularly strong. Comparisons made between these drought reconstructions and a companion field of SST reconstructions for the tropical Pacific back to AD 1400, based on independent tree-ring data from the American Southwest and Mexico, suggest that unusual ENSO variability is a contributor to the development

  20. Trends and variability of East African rainfall and its relationship to the Mascarene High pressure system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seregina, Larisa; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Fink, Andreas H.; Ermert, Volker

    2016-04-01

    In the recent decades, East Africa needs to deal with strong fluctuations in seasonal rainfall including precipitation extremes. In context of climate change, such extremes can become more frequent in the future. However, regional climate projections are uncertain about the future development of seasonal precipitation in the region. Rainfall regimes over East Africa are influenced by multiple factors, including two monsoon systems, several convergence zones and the Rift Valley lakes. In addition, local conditions, like topography, modulate the large-scale rainfall pattern. East African rainfall variability is also influenced by various teleconnections like the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The study of past climate variability in East Africa requires sufficient observational data coverage in the region. As East Africa does not have a dense observational network of meteorological stations, satellite rainfall observations gain on importance in studies on climate variability in the region. The specific aim of the present study is the analysis of historic data from weather stations in East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Ruanda and Uganda), the use of gridded satellite products, and three-dimensional atmospheric reanalysis (e.g., ERA-Interim) to quantify climate variability in the recent past and to understand its causes. Climate variability and trends, including changes in extreme events, are evaluated using ETCCDI climate change and standardized precipitation indices. These climate indices are determined in order to investigate the variability of rainfall and its trends with the focus on recent decades. For seasonal trend analysis, an independent and non-calendaric rainfall onset criterion is introduced. In the follow-up, statistical and dynamical analyses are conducted to quantify the local impact of Mascarene High as a part of the Subtropical High Pressure Ridge on East African seasonal rainfall. Possible connections to pertinent large

  1. Role of the North Pacific sea surface temperature in the East Asian winter monsoon decadal variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Jianqi; Wu, Sha; Ao, Juan

    2016-06-01

    In this study, a possible mechanism for the decadal variability in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is proposed. Specifically, the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) may play an important role. An analysis of the observations shows that the North Pacific SST has a remarkable decadal pattern whose phase shifted around the mid-1980s. This North Pacific SST decadal pattern can weaken the East Asian trough and enhance the North Pacific Oscillation through changing air-sea interactions over the North Pacific. The weak East Asian trough enhances the zonal circulation and weakens the meridional circulation over East Asia, consequently leading to a weaker southward cold surge and East Asia warming around the mid-1980s. The numerical experiment further confirms the pronounced physical processes. In addition, over the longer period of 1871-2012, the indices of the EAWM and North Pacific SST decadal pattern are also highly consistent on the decadal timescale, which further confirms the impact of the North Pacific SST decadal pattern on the EAWM decadal variability.

  2. Dynamic variability of the Asian monsoon anticyclone observed in potential vorticity and correlations with tracer distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garny, H.; Randel, W. J.

    2013-12-01

    The Asian summer monsoon is associated with strong upward transport of tropospheric source gases and isolation of air within the upper tropospheric anticyclone, with a high degree of dynamical variability. Here we study the anticyclone in terms of potential vorticity (PV) as derived from reanalysis data. The strength of the anticyclone, as measured by low PV area, varies on subseasonal time scales (periods of 30-40 days), driven by variability in convection. The convective forcing of low PV areas is associated with heating in the middle troposphere and divergent motion in the upper troposphere, and we find that upper level divergence is a good predictor of the anticyclone strength. Low PV air is often observed to propagate from the forcing region to the west, and occasionally to the east. Carbon monoxide (CO) measured by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder is used to study the covariability of chemical tracers with the anticyclone strength and location. Concentrations of CO maximize within the upper tropospheric anticyclone, and enhanced CO is well correlated with the spatial distribution of low PV. Time variations of CO concentrations in the upper troposphere (around 360 K) are not strongly correlated with anticyclone strength, probably because CO transport also involves coupling with surface CO sources (unlike PV). Temporal correlations with PV are stronger for CO at higher levels (380-400 K), suggesting that advective upward transport is important for tracer evolution at these levels.

  3. Interdecadal changes in the Asian winter monsoon variability and its relationship with ENSO and AO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yun, Kyung-Sook; Seo, Ye-Won; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Lee, June-Yi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki

    2014-08-01

    Interdecadal changes in the Asian winter monsoon (AWM) variability are investigated using three surface air temperature datasets for the 55-year period of 1958-2012 from (1) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis 1 (NCEP), (2) combined datasets from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis and interim data (ERA), and (3) Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA). Particular attention has been paid to the first four empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the AWM temperature variability that together account for 64% of the total variance and have been previously identified as predictable modes. The four modes are characterized as follows: the first mode by a southern warming over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean associated with a gradually increasing basin-wide warming trend; the second mode by northern warming with the interdecadal change after the late 1980s; the third and fourth modes by north-south triple pattern, which reveal a phase shift after the late 1970s. The three reanalyses agree well with each other when producing the first three modes, but show large discrepancy in capturing both spatial and temporal characteristics of the fourth mode. It is therefore considered that the first three leading modes are more reliable than the rest higher modes. Considerable interdecadal changes are found mainly in the first two modes. While the first mode shows gradually decreasing variance, the second mode exhibits larger interannual variance during the recent decade. In addition, after the late 1970s, the first mode has a weakening relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whereas the second mode has strengthening association with the Artic Oscillation (AO). This indicates an increasing role of AO but decreasing role of ENSO on the AWM variability. A better understanding of the interdecadal change in the dominant modes would contribute toward advancing in

  4. Intraseasonal to interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall and its influence on the Agricultural corps in mountainous Kashmir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hussain, Z.; Saeed, S.

    2012-04-01

    By using high resolution APHRODITE precipitation and meteorological station data (1961-2007) the present study examines the intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall over mountainous Kashmir and its influence on the agricultural crops such as Maiz and Wheat. It is found that an intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall can severely affect the crop production in the hilly areas of Kashmir. We found an increasing trend in the extreme precipitation events over Kashmir and adjacent areas in the recent years. The associated crop production shows significant decreasing trend especially over the hilly areas in Kashmir. The enhanced rainfall can result in the soil erosion that impose a major threat to sustainable agriculture in the mountainous areas of Kashmir. The heavy rainfall associated with the orographic uplifitng removes the uppermost fertile layer of soil, depleting fertility and leaving the soil in poor physical condition. This further causes severe deficiency of most important nutrients required for plant growth and crop yield. We further analysed the IPCC AR4 ECHAM5/MPIOM climate model simulations to examine the future interannual variability of monsoon rainfall over Kashmir and adjoining areas. In the following we analysed the transient run with a 1% per year increase in CO2 until reaching double concentrations and held constant thereafter. We found enhanced interannual variability of the summer monsoon rainfall (July-August) with increasing drought like conditions over Kashmir and adjoining northern parts of Pakistan in future climate. The enhanced interannual variability of precipitation in future could further affect severely growth of various agricultural crops in mountainous parts of Kashmir.

  5. Monsoon variability of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) attenuation and bio-optical factors in the Asian tropical coral-reef waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizubayashi, Keiko; Kuwahara, Victor S.; Segaran, Thirukanthan C.; Zaleha, Kassim; Effendy, A. W. M.; Kushairi, M. R. M.; Toda, Tatsuki

    2013-07-01

    The East coast of Peninsular Malaysia is strongly influenced by the North-East (NE) monsoon, and may significantly influence the optical environment of coral-reef ecosystems. However, our knowledge of temporal variability, including episodic events, of environmental factors in Asian tropical regions is still limited. The objectives of this study were to (1) observe temporal variability in ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) attenuation and (2) determine the bio-optical factors regulating the optical environment in shallow coral-reef waters. Downwelling UVR and PAR irradiance and in situ bio-optical factors were measured monthly near Bidong Island on the East coast of Peninsular Malaysia from June 2010 to June 2011. The NE monsoon was recognized between November 2010 and January 2011. The highest diffuse attenuation coefficient at 305 nm was 2.05 ± 0.03 m-1 in a coral-reef area on December 2010. The most significant bio-optical factor at 305, 380, 440 nm during the NE monsoon season was CDOM (89 ± 8% at 305 nm, 84 ± 9% at 380 nm and 49 ± 17% at 440 nm). All UVR attenuation coefficients showed significant correlations with the CDOM absorption coefficients (aCDOM). CDOM with relatively low S275-295 during the NE monsoon season (0.0177 ± 0.0020 nm-1) suggests terrestrial sources, which is also supported by the correlation between salinity and aCDOM(305). A significant correlation between S275-295 and the carbon specific absorbance coefficient (a*(305)) suggest the potential to measure DOC optically in these waters. The high CDOM during the NE monsoon season may have an important role to reduce harmful UVR exposure reaching benthic communities.

  6. Relationships between interdecadal variability and extreme precipitation events in South America during the monsoon season

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grimm, Alice; Laureanti, Nicole; Rodakoviski, Rodrigo

    2016-04-01

    This study aims to clarify the impact of interdecadal climate oscillations (periods of 8 years and longer) on the frequency of extreme precipitation events over South America in the monsoon season (austral spring and summer), and determine the influence of these oscillations on the daily precipitation frequency distribution. Interdecadal variability modes of precipitation during the monsoon season are provided by a continental-scale rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis for the 60 years period 1950-2009. The main disclosed modes are robust, since they are reproduced for different periods. They can produce differences around 50% in monthly precipitation between opposite phases. Oceanic and atmospheric anomalous fields associated with these modes indicate that they have physical basis. The first modes in spring and summer display highest correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) SST mode, while the second modes have strongest correlation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) SST mode. However, there are also other influences on these modes. As the most dramatic consequences of climate variability stem from its influence on the frequency of extreme precipitation events, it is important to also assess this influence, since variations in monthly or seasonal precipitation do not necessarily imply significant alterations in their extreme events. This study seeks to answer the questions: i) Do opposite phases of the main interdecadal modes of seasonal precipitation produce significant anomalies in the frequency of extreme events? ii) Does the interdecadal variability of the frequency of extreme events show similar spatial and temporal structure as the interdecadal variability of the seasonal precipitation? iii) Does the interdecadal variability change the daily precipitation probability distribution between opposite phases? iv) In this case, which ranges of daily precipitation are most affected? The significant anomalies of the extreme

  7. On the Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall over East Cost of India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de, N.; Bondyopadhaya, R. P.

    2009-04-01

    A study of the major portion of Monsoon Rainfall (M.R.) of West Bengal and Orissa (two coastal states of India whose total area is bigger than many European countries)during 1871-2005 has been made. It is suggested that the nature of variability of M.R. is to be studied for the regions as a whole where M.R. is precipitated simultaneously.For example, by z-score and other methods of analysis it is found that M.R. of those two states vary in opposite manner but the total M.R. remains almost constant during the said long period. Further it is found that the mean M.R. before and after 1946 are same in spite of the fact that the nature of deviations are almost in opposite phase. Incidentally we have noted that 1946 was the year just after the World War Two and the explosion of first hydrogen bomb in this continent in the neighborhood of India.

  8. The Impact of the Atlantic Cold Tongue on West African Monsoon Onset in Regional Model Simulations for 1998-2002

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew B.

    2014-01-01

    The Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) develops during spring and early summer near the Equator in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The hypothesis that the ACT accelerates the timing of West African monsoon (WAM) onset is tested by comparing two regional climate model (RM3) simulation ensembles. Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) that include the ACT are used to force a control ensemble. An idealized, warm SST perturbation is designed to represent lower boundary forcing without the ACT for the experiment ensemble. Summer simulations forced by observed SST and reanalysis boundary conditions for each of five consecutive years are compared to five parallel runs forced by SST with the warm perturbation. The article summarizes the sequence of events leading to the onset of the WAM in the Sahel region. The representation of WAM onset in RM3 simulations is examined and compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and reanalysis data. The study evaluates the sensitivity of WAM onset indicators to the presence of the ACT by analysing the differences between the two simulation ensembles. Results show that the timing of major rainfall events and therefore theWAM onset in the Sahel are not sensitive to the presence of the ACT. However, the warm SST perturbation does increase downstream rainfall rates over West Africa as a consequence of enhanced specific humidity and enhanced northward moisture flux in the lower troposphere.

  9. New approach for aerosol profiling with a lidar onboard an ultralight aircraft: application to the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis.

    PubMed

    Chazette, Patrick; Sanak, Joseph; Dulac, François

    2007-12-15

    A new airborne instrumental payload has been designed for an ultralight aircraft to determine the vertical profile of aerosol optical properties. It is based on Lidar Aérosols UltraViolet Aéroporté (LAUVA), a compact backscattering lidar system emitting at the wavelength of 355 nm. We operated this airborne configuration in the Sahel from the city of Niamey (Niger) during the first campaign of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) in January-February 2006, when aerosols from both soil dust and savannah fires cause large visibility reductions. We take advantage of the lidar capability of pointing in different directions for retrieving the vertical profile of the aerosol backscatter to extinction ratio (BER). A synergy with a scatterometer (880 nm) and a ground-based sunphotometer allows us to further determine the vertical profile of Angström exponent (a). We identify three types of aerosol layers up to about 5 km below the free troposphere, dominated by biomass burning (BB) particles, mineral dust (D) particles, and a mixing between BB and D particles, respectively, associated with BER (a) values close to 0.008 sr(-1) (1.5), 0.025 sr(-1) (0), and 0.015 sr(-1) (0.4-1).

  10. Observational Evidence of Impacts of Aerosols on Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of the Asian Monsoon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.; Hsu, N. C.

    2006-01-01

    Observational evidences are presented showing that the Indian subcontinent and surrounding regions are subject to heavy loading of absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon), with strong seasonality closely linked to the monsoon annual rainfall cycle. Increased loading of absorbing aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic Plain in April-May is associated with a) increased heating of the upper troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau, b) an advance of the monsoon rainy season, and c) subsequent enhancement of monsoon rainfall over the South Asia subcontinent, and reduction over East Asia. Also presented are radiative transfer calculations showing how differential solar absorption by aerosols over bright surface (desert or snow cover land) compared to dark surface (vegetated land and ocean), may be instrumental in triggering an aerosol-monsoon large-scale circulation and water cycle feedback, consistent with the elevated heat pump hypothesis (Lau et al. 2006).

  11. Interannual variability and predictability over the Arabian Penuinsula Winter monsoon region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adnan Abid, Muhammad; Kucharski, Fred; Almazroui, Mansour; Kang, In-Sik

    2016-04-01

    Interannual winter rainfall variability and its predictability are analysed over the Arabian Peninsula region by using observed and hindcast datasets from the state-of-the-art European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal prediction System 4 for the period 1981-2010. An Arabian winter monsoon index (AWMI) is defined to highlight the Arabian Peninsula as the most representative region for the Northern Hemispheric winter dominating the summer rainfall. The observations show that the rainfall variability is relatively large over the northeast of the Arabian Peninsula. The correlation coefficient between the Nino3.4 index and rainfall in this region is 0.33, suggesting potentially some modest predictability, and indicating that El Nino increases and La Nina decreases the rainfall. Regression analysis shows that upper-level cyclonic circulation anomalies that are forced by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are responsible for the winter rainfall anomalies over the Arabian region. The stronger (weaker) mean transient-eddy activity related to the upper-level trough induced by the warm (cold) sea-surface temperatures during El Nino (La Nina) tends to increase (decrease) the rainfall in the region. The model hindcast dataset reproduces the ENSO-rainfall connection. The seasonal mean predictability of the northeast Arabian rainfall index is 0.35. It is shown that the noise variance is larger than the signal over the Arabian Peninsula region, which tends to limit the prediction skill. The potential predictability is generally increased in ENSO years and is, in particular, larger during La Nina compared to El Nino years in the region. Furthermore, central Pacific ENSO events and ENSO events with weak signals in the Indian Ocean tend to increase predictability over the Arabian region.

  12. Impact of the modulated annual cycle and intraseasonal oscillation on daily-to-interannual rainfall variability across monsoonal India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moron, Vincent; Robertson, Andrew W.; Ghil, Michael

    2012-06-01

    Variability of the Indian summer monsoon is decomposed into an interannually modulated annual cycle (MAC) and a northward-propagating, intraseasonal (30-60-day) oscillation (ISO). To achieve this decomposition, we apply multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) simultaneously to unfiltered daily fields of observed outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and to reanalyzed 925-hPa winds over the Indian region, from 1975 to 2008. The MAC is essentially given by the year-to-year changes in the annual and semi-annual components; it displays a slow northward migration of OLR anomalies coupled with an alternation between the northeast winter and southwest summer monsoons. The impact of these oscillatory modes on rainfall is then analyzed using a 1-degree gridded daily data set, focusing on Monsoonal India (north of 17°N and west of 90°E) during the months of June to September. Daily rainfall variability is partitioned into three states using a Hidden Markov Model. Two of these states are shown to agree well with previous classifications of "active" and "break" phases of the monsoon, while the third state exhibits a dipolar east-west pattern with abundant rainfall east of about 77°E and low rainfall to the west. Occurrence of the three rainfall states is found to be an asymmetric function of both the MAC and ISO components. On average, monsoon active phases are favored by large positive anomalies of MAC, and breaks by negative ones. ISO impact is decisive when the MAC is near neutral values during the onset and withdrawal phases of the monsoon. Active monsoon spells are found to require a synergy between the MAC and ISO, while the east-west rainfall dipole is less sensitive to interactions between the two. The driest years, defined from spatially averaged June-September rainfall anomalies, are found to be mostly a result of breaks occurring during the onset and withdrawal stages of the monsoon, e.g., mid-June to mid-July, and during September. These breaks are in turn

  13. West African monsoon dynamics and precipitation: the competition between global SST warming and CO2 increase in CMIP5 idealized simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaetani, Marco; Flamant, Cyrille; Bastin, Sophie; Janicot, Serge; Lavaysse, Christophe; Hourdin, Frederic; Braconnot, Pascale; Bony, Sandrine

    2016-04-01

    Climate variability associated with the West African monsoon (WAM) has important environmental and socio-economic impacts in the region. However, state-of-the-art climate models still struggle in producing reliable climate predictions. An important cause of this low predictive skill is the sensitivity of climate models to different forcings. In this study, the mechanisms linking the WAM dynamics to the CO2 forcing are investigated, by comparing the effect of the CO2 direct radiative effect with its indirect effect mediated by the global sea surface warming. The July-to-September WAM variability is studied in climate simulations extracted from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive, driven by prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). The individual roles of global SST warming and CO2 atmospheric concentration increase are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4 K warmer SST and a quadrupled CO2 concentration, respectively. Results show opposite and competing responses in the WAM dynamics and precipitation. A dry response (-0.6 mm/day) to the SST warming is simulated in the Sahel, with dryer conditions over western Sahel (-0.8 mm/day). Conversely, the CO2 increase produces wet conditions (+0.5 mm/day) in the Sahel, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel (+0.7 mm/day). The associated responses in the atmospheric dynamics are also analysed, showing that the SST warming affects the Sahelian precipitation through modifications in the global tropical atmospheric dynamics, reducing the importance of the regional drivers, while the CO2 increase reinforces the coupling between precipitation and regional dynamics. A general agreement in model responses demonstrates the robustness of the identified mechanisms linking the WAM dynamics to the CO2 direct and indirect forcing, and indicates that these primary mechanisms are captured by climate models. Results also suggest that the spread in future projections may be caused by

  14. A Continuous Record of Indian Summer Monsoon Variability through the Holocene from Lake Sediments in Yunnan, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hillman, A. L.; Abbott, M. B.; Yu, J.

    2015-12-01

    Continuous terrestrial archives of the Indian Summer Monsoon through the Holocene are lacking, yet critical to providing a long-term perspective of hydroclimate variability. Here we present an 8,000 year sediment record from Xing Yun Lake in Yunnan, China that provides a semi-quantitative estimate of lake level change using stable isotopes of authigenic calcite as well as within-lake productivity using stable isotopes of organic matter. Substantial drops in lake level occur at 6,600 years BP, consistent with previous studies of a weaker monsoon system in the mid-Holocene due to declining summer insolation. Lake levels stabilize at 4,700 years BP and remain steady due to the topography surrounding the lake. From 5,600 to 5,100 and from 4,600 to 4,000 years BP, primary productivity decreases and is coincident with significant regional aridity as well as cooler Western Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. Variability in the stable isotopes of both calcite and organic matter after 1,500 years BP is primarily controlled by human activities. This study shows broad agreement with previous work on the Tibetan Plateau and provides one of the first continuous records of lake hydrologic balance from a crucial region affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon.

  15. Multi-Decadal Modulations in the Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, H.; Machimura, T.; Ogawa, S.; Kosaka, Y.; Nishii, K.; Miyasaka, T.

    2015-12-01

    The East Asian summer monsoon fluctuates from its climatological activity on monthly and interannual time scales, and the most dominant pattern of the variability is known as the Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern. Characterized by a meridional teleconnection in anomalous activity of the Meiyu/Baiu rainband, tropical storms and a surface subtropical anticyclone (the Bonin High) in between, the PJ pattern exerts substantial influence on summertime climatic conditions over East Asia and the western North Pacific. Despite the recent warming trend observed in its background state, no assessment thus far has been made on how substantially the PJ has undergone, if any, multi-decadal modulations in its structure and/or dominance. Through an EOF analysis applied to a new dataset of global atmospheric reanalysis (JRA-55), the predominance of the PJ pattern is confirmed as being extracted in the leading EOF of lower-tropospheric monthly vorticity anomalies over 55 recent years. Both efficient barotropic/baroclinic energy conversion from the climatological-mean state and efficient generation of available potential energy through anomalous convective activity over the tropical western Pacific are shown to be essential for the maintenance of the monthly atmospheric anomalies of the PJ pattern over the entire 55-year period. At the same time, however, the same EOF analysis as above but applied separately to each of the sub-periods reveals a distinct signature of long-term modulations in amplitude and thus the dominance of the PJ pattern. While being extracted in the first EOF up to the 1980s, the PJ pattern is extracted in the second EOF in the period since the 1990s with marked reductions in both the variance fraction explained and the efficiency of energy conversion/generation. The resultant modulations of the summertime meridional teleconnection are also discussed with implications for future changes.

  16. Rainfall variability over South-east Asia - connections with Indian monsoon and ENSO extremes: new perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kripalani, R. H.; Kulkarni, Ashwini

    1997-09-01

    Seasonal and annual rainfall data for 135 stations for periods varying from 25 to 125 years are utilized to investigate and understand the interannual and short-term (decadal) climate variability over the South-east Asian domain. Contemporaneous relations during the summer monsoon period (June to September) reveal that the rainfall variations over central India, north China, northern parts of Thailand, central parts of Brunei and Borneo and the Indonesian region east of 120°E vary in phase. However, the rainfall variations over the regions surrounding the South China Sea, in particular the north-west Philippines, vary in the opposite phase. Possible dynamic causes for the spatial correlation structure obtained are discussed.Based on the instrumental data available and on an objective criteria, regional rainfall anomaly time series for contiguous regions over Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia and Philippines are prepared. Results reveal that although there are year-to-year random fluctuations, there are certain epochs of the above- and below-normal rainfall over each region. These epochs are not forced by the El Niño/La Nina frequencies. Near the equatorial regions the epochs tend to last for about a decade, whereas over the tropical regions, away from the Equator, epochs last for about three decades. There is no systematic climate change or trend in any of the series. Further, the impact of El Niño (La Nina) on the rainfall regimes is more severe during the below (above) normal epochs than during the above (below) normal epochs. Extreme drought/flood situations tend to occur when the epochal behaviour and the El Niño/La Nina events are phase-locked.

  17. Late Holocene Asian summer monsoon variability reflected by δ18O in tree-rings from Tibetan junipers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grießinger, Jussi; Bräuning, Achim; Helle, Gerd; Thomas, Axel; Schleser, Gerhard

    2011-02-01

    Recent warming in High Asia might have a strong impact on Asian summer monsoon variability with consequences for the hydrological cycle. Based on correlations between climate data, the tree-ring δ18O of high-elevation junipers is an indicator of August precipitation. Thus, our 800-year long annually resolved oxygen isotope series reflects long-term variations in summer monsoon activity on the southern Tibetan plateau. Summer precipitation was reduced during 13th-15th centuries and since the 19th century, whereas the Little Ice Age period (15th-19th century) was rather moist. The late 20th century was among the driest periods during the past 800 years, showing a tendency to slightly wetter conditions after AD 1990.

  18. Evaluation of Boreal Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability in the GASS-YOTC Multi-Model Physical Processes Experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mani, N. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Jiang, X.

    2014-12-01

    While the boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal variability (BSISV) exerts profound influence on the south Asian monsoon, the capability of present day dynamical models in simulating and predicting the BSISV is still limited. The global model evaluation project on vertical structure and diabatic processes of the Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) is a joint venture, coordinated by the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) MJO Task Force and GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) program, for assessing the model deficiencies in simulating the ISV and for improving our understanding of the underlying processes. In this study the simulation of the northward propagating BSISV is investigated in 26 climate models with special focus on the vertical diabatic heating structure and clouds. Following parallel lines of inquiry as the MJO Task Force has done with the eastward propagating MJO, we utilize previously proposed and newly developed model performance metrics and process diagnostics and apply them to the global climate model simulations of BSISV.

  19. Reconstructing the variability in the Indian monsoon over the last 20,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schulenberg, S. A.; Came, R. E.; Johnson, J. E.; Giosan, L.

    2011-12-01

    The Asian monsoon rains provide freshwater to one of the most densely populated regions on Earth. However, despite the societal and economic importance of the monsoon system, its forcing mechanisms are not fully understood. It is widely accepted that on orbital timescales the strength of the Asian monsoon varies in response to changes in northern hemisphere (NH) summer insolation, which is primarily controlled by precession. Paleoclimate archives from around the region yield conflicting evidence about the timing of the monsoonal response with respect to NH insolation changes [e.g., Clemens and Prell, 2003; Wang et al., 2001], perhaps suggesting a complex relationship between insolation forcing and climatic response. We present new down-core records of paired planktic foraminiferal Mg/Ca-derived sea surface temperatures and seawater δ18O since the Last Glacial Maximum, which we generated using an intermediate depth sediment core retrieved from the Mahanadi Basin within the northwestern Bay of Bengal. When compared to previously published results [Rashid et al., 2007, 2011], our new results reveal geographic variations in sea surface hydrography within the Bay of Bengal over the past 20,000 years. The timing of these variations will be interpreted in light of known changes in NH summer insolation and within the context of previously published paleoclimate archives from the entire Asian monsoon region.

  20. African monsoon variations and persistence of the Megalake Chad during the late Pliocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Contoux, Camille; Ramstein, Gilles; Jost, Anne; Sepulchre, Pierre; Schuster, Mathieu; Braconnot, Pascale

    2013-04-01

    Megalake Chad (MLC) occurrences are widely documented for the mid-Holocene period but also for the Mio-Pliocene (Schuster et al., 2009). From 7 to 3 Ma, analysis of sedimentary deposits of the Djurab desert region show desertic to full-lacustrine facies, suggesting an alternance of dry to wet climates (Schuster, 2002, Schuster et al., 2009), lacustrine conditions being associated to fauna dispersal and early hominid presence (e.g. Brunet et al., 1995, 2002). Some studies (e.g. Braconnot and Marti, 2003) suggest a control of precession on monsoon. Using late Pliocene climate simulations and different orbital configurations, can we constrain variations of the Megalake and reach the water volume of 350 000 km² proposed by several authors (Ghienne et al., 2002; Leblanc et al., 2006)? Can we propose a timing for the MLC occurrences? First, in order to better characterize the precession role on Megalake Chad occurrences during the late Pliocene, we use the IPSLCM5A coupled ocean atmosphere climate model forced with four different orbital configurations and mid-Pliocene boundary conditions. The four orbital configurations, all around 3 Ma, correspond to maximum and minimum insolations at 30°N at summer solstice or autumn equinox. We find important increases of precipitation in North Africa, controlled by insolation maxima at 30°N at summer solstice and autumn equinox, i.e. related to an angular precession between 270° and 10°. When used to force a surface routing model (HYDRA, Coe, 2000), these precipitation increases lead to MLC episodes, suggesting the MLC could be sustained during at least 5 kyr of a precession cycle. However, this method does not account for the lake feedback on climate. Indeed, during wet phases, the MLC becomes an important evaporation source, modifying the climate of the Chad basin. To investigate this aspect, we use the LMDZ4 atmospheric model including an open water surface module (Krinner, 2003). We find that deep convection is suppressed

  1. The representation of low-level clouds during the West African monsoon in weather and climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kniffka, Anke; Hannak, Lisa; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    The West African monsoon is one of the most important large-scale circulation features in the tropics and the associated seasonal rainfalls are crucial to rain-fed agriculture and water resources for hundreds of millions of people. However, numerical weather and climate models still struggle to realistically represent salient features of the monsoon across a wide range of scales. Recently it has been shown that substantial errors in radiation and clouds exist in the southern parts of West Africa (8°W-8°E, 5-10°N) during summer. This area is characterised by strong low-level jets associated with the formation of extensive ultra-low stratus clouds. Often persisting long after sunrise, these clouds have a substantial impact on the radiation budget at the surface and thus the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here we present some first results from a detailed analysis of the representation of these clouds and the associated PBL features across a range of weather and climate models. Recent climate model simulations for the period 1991-2010 run in the framework of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) offer a great opportunity for this analysis. The models are those used for the latest Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but for YOTC the model output has a much better temporal resolution, allowing to resolve the diurnal cycle, and includes diabatic terms, allowing to much better assess physical reasons for errors in low-level temperature, moisture and thus cloudiness. These more statistical climate model analyses are complemented by experiments using ICON (Icosahedral non-hydrostatic general circulation model), the new numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. ICON allows testing sensitivities to model resolution and numerical schemes. These model simulations are validated against (re-)analysis data, satellite observations (e.g. CM SAF cloud and

  2. South American Monsoon variability during the past 2,000 years from stable isotopic proxies and model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vuille, M.; Cruz, F. W.; Abbott, M.; Bird, B. W.; Burns, S. J.; Cheng, H.; Colose, C. M.; Kanner, L. C.; LeGrande, A. N.; Novello, V. F.; Taylor, B. L.

    2012-12-01

    The rapidly growing number of high-resolution stable isotopic proxies from speleothems, ice cores and lake sediments, located in the South American summer monsoon (SASM) belt, will soon allow for a comprehensive analysis of climate variability in the South American tropics and subtropics over the past ~ 2000 years. In combination with isotope-enabled General Circulation Models (GCMs) this offers new prospects for better understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of the South American monsoon system and for diagnosing its sensitivities to external forcing mechanisms (solar, volcanic) and modes of ocean-atmosphere variability (e.g. ENSO and AMO). In this presentation we will discuss the rationale for interpreting isotopic excursions recorded in various proxies from the Andes, northeastern and southeastern Brazil as indicative of changes in monsoon intensity. We will focus on the past 2 millenia when isotopic proxies from the SASM region show a very coherent behavior regardless of the type of archive or their location. All proxies exhibit significant decadal to multidecadal variability, superimposed on large excursions during three key periods, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Current Warm Period (CWP). We interpret these three periods as times when the SASM mean state was significantly weakened (MCA and CWP) and strengthened (LIA), respectively. During the LIA each of the proxy archives considered contains the most negative delta-18O values recorded during the entire record length. On the other hand the monsoon strength is currently rather weak in a 2000- year historical perspective, rivaled only by the low intensity during the MCA. One interpretation of these centennial-scale climate anomalies suggests that they were at least partially driven by temperature changes in the northern hemisphere and in particular over the North Atlantic, leading to a latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ and a change in monsoon intensity and degree of

  3. Tropospheric ozone variability during the East Asian summer monsoon as observed by satellite (IASI), aircraft (MOZAIC) and ground stations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safieddine, Sarah; Boynard, Anne; Hao, Nan; Huang, Fuxiang; Wang, Lili; Ji, Dongsheng; Barret, Brice; Ghude, Sachin D.; Coheur, Pierre-François; Hurtmans, Daniel; Clerbaux, Cathy

    2016-08-01

    Satellite measurements from the thermal Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), aircraft data from the MOZAIC/IAGOS project, as well as observations from ground-based stations, are used to assess the tropospheric ozone (O3) variability during the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Six years 2008-2013 of IASI data analysis reveals the ability of the instrument to detect the onset and the progression of the monsoon seen by a decrease in the tropospheric 0-6 km O3 column due to the EASM, and to reproduce this decrease from one year to the other. The year-to-year variability is found to be mainly dependent on meteorology. Focusing on the period of May-August 2011, taken as an example year, IASI data show clear inverse relationship between tropospheric 0-6 km O3 on one hand and meteorological parameters such as cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed, on the other hand. Aircraft data from the MOZAIC/IAGOS project for the EASM of 2008-2013 are used to validate the IASI data and to assess the effect of the monsoon on the vertical distribution of the tropospheric O3 at different locations. Results show good agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.73 (12 %) between the 0-6 km O3 column derived from IASI and aircraft data. IASI captures very well the inter-annual variation of tropospheric O3 observed by the aircraft data over the studied domain. Analysis of vertical profiles of the aircraft data shows a decrease in the tropospheric O3 that is more important in the free troposphere than in the boundary layer and at 10-20° N than elsewhere. Ground station data at different locations in India and China show a spatiotemporal dependence on meteorology during the monsoon, with a decrease up to 22 ppbv in Hyderabad, and up to 5 ppbv in the North China Plain.

  4. Coupled land-ocean-atmosphere processes and South asian monsoon variability.

    PubMed

    Meehl, G A

    1994-10-14

    Results from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model and a model with specified tropical convective heating anomalies show that the South Asian monsoon was an active part of the tropical biennial oscillation (TBO). Convective heating anomalies over Africa and the western Pacific Ocean associated with the TBO altered the simulated pattern of atmospheric circulation for the Northern Hemisphere winter mid-latitude over Asia. This alteration in the mid-latitude circulation maintained temperature anomalies over South Asia through winter and helped set up the land-sea temperature contrast for subsequent monsoon development. South Asian snow cover contributed to monsoon strength but was symptomatic of the larger scale alteration in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation pattern. PMID:17771448

  5. A 5000 Year Record of Andean South American Summer Monsoon Variability from Laguna de Ubaque, Colombia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudloff, O. M.; Bird, B. W.; Escobar, J.

    2014-12-01

    Our understanding of Northern Hemisphere South American summer monsoon (SASM) dynamics during the Holocene has been limited by the small number of terrestrial paleoclimate records from this region. In order to increase our knowledge of SASM variability and to better inform our predictions of its response to ongoing rapid climate change, we require high-resolution paleoclimate records from the Northern Hemisphere Andes. To this end, we present sub-decadally resolved sedimentological and geochemical data from Laguna de Ubaque that spans the last 5000 years. Located in the Eastern Cordillera of the Colombian Andes, Laguna de Ubaque (2070 m asl) is a small, east facing moraine-dammed lake in the upper part of the Rio Meta watershed near Bogotá containing finely laminated clastic sediments. Dry bulk density, %organic matter, %carbonate and magnetic susceptibility (MS) results from Ubaque suggest a period of intense precipitation between 3500 and 2000 years BP interrupted by a 300 yr dry interval centered at 2700 years BP. Following this event, generally drier conditions characterize the last 2000 years. Although considerably lower amplitude than the middle Holocene pluvial events, variability in the sedimentological data support climatic responses during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900 to 1200 CE) and Little Ice Age (LIA; 1450 to 1900 CE) that are consistent with other records of local Andean conditions. In particular, reduced MS during the MCA suggests a reduction in terrestrial material being washed into the lake as a result of generally drier conditions. The LIA on the other hand shows a two phase structure with increased MS between 1450 and 1600 CE, suggesting wetter conditions during the onset of the LIA, and reduced MS between 1600 and 1900 CE, suggesting a return to drier conditions during the latter part of the LIA. These LIA trends are similar to the Quelccaya accumulation record, possibly supporting an in-phase relationship between the South American

  6. Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation on the summer West African monsoon in AMIP simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niang, Coumba; Mohino, Elsa; Gaye, Amadou T.; Omotosho, J. Bayo

    2016-06-01

    At intraseasonal timescales, convection over West Africa is modulated by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). In this work we investigate the simulation of such relationship by 11 state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation models runs with prescribed observed sea surface temperatures. In general, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations show good skill in capturing the main characteristics of the summer MJO as well as its influence on convection and rainfall over West Africa. Most models simulate an eastward spatiotemporal propagation of enhanced and suppressed convection similar to the observed MJO, although their signal over West Africa is weaker in some models. In addition, the ensemble average of models' composites gives a better performance in reproducing the main features and timing of the MJO and its impact over West Africa. The influence on rainfall is well captured in both Sahel and Guinea regions thereby adequately producing the transition between positive and negative rainfall anomalies through the different phases as in the observations. Furthermore, the results show that a strong active convection phase is clearly associated with a stronger African Easterly Jet (AEJ) but the weak convective phase is associated with a much weaker AEJ. Our analysis of the equatorial waves suggests that the main impact over West Africa is established by the propagation of low-frequency waves within the MJO and Rossby spectral peaks. Results from the simulations confirm that it may be possible to predict anomalous convection over West Africa with a time lead of 15-20 day.

  7. Interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon associated with the air-sea feedback in the northern Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shukla, Ravi P.; Huang, Bohua

    2016-03-01

    Using observation-based analyses, this study identifies the leading interannual pattern of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) independent of ENSO and examines the potential mechanisms of its formation. For this purpose, an objective procedure is used to isolate the variability of the summer precipitation associated with the contemporary ENSO state and in previous winter-spring, which influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region in opposite ways. It is shown that the leading pattern of these ENSO-related monsoon rainfall anomalies reproduces some major ISMR features and well represents its connections to the global-scale ENSO features in both lower and upper troposphere. On the other hand, the leading pattern derived from the precipitation anomalies with the ENSO component removed in the ISM and surrounding region also accounts for a substantial amount of the monsoon precipitation centered at the eastern coast of the subtropical Arabian Sea, extending into both the western Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent. The associated atmospheric circulation change is regional in nature, mostly confined in the lower to mid troposphere centered in the Arabian Sea, with a mild connection to an opposite tendency centered at the South China Sea. Further analyses show that this regional pattern is associated with a thermodynamic air-sea feedback during early to mid summer season. Specifically, before the monsoon onset, an anomalous atmospheric high pressure over the Arabian Sea causes excessive shortwave radiation to the sea surface and increases SST in May. The warm SST anomalies peak in June and reduce the sea level pressure. The anomalous cyclonic circulation generates regional convection and precipitation, which also induces subsidence and anticyclonic circulation over the South China Sea. The combined cyclonic-anticyclonic circulation further transport moisture from the western Pacific into the Indian Ocean and causes its convergence into the Arabian Sea. As a

  8. Rainfall variability over the East African coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gamoyo, Majambo; Reason, Chris; Obura, David

    2015-04-01

    The coastal region of Kenya and Tanzania experiences two rainy seasons per year (October-November-December (OND) and March-April-May (MAM)) and has an economy that is highly dependent on and vulnerable to the amounts and timing of rainfall during these seasons. Most of the interannual variability in OND seasonal rainfall totals relate to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. While these relationships are fairly well documented and understood, there is a relatively poor understanding of the timing and intensity of the rainfall during ENSO/IOD seasons. In an attempt to improve understanding on this topic, daily rainfall station data, dekad and seasonal satellite rainfall estimates and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) imagery are analyzed for two recent OND seasons with El Niño conditions. These are OND 2006 which was characterized by devastating floods over the region and 2009 when the magnitude and spatial extent of the above average rainfall patterns were smaller. Daily rainfall data for the Tanzanian coastal stations showed that Tanga and Dar es Salaam (north and central coast) experienced few dry spells and several relatively intense wet spells during OND 2006 whereas at Mtwara, on the south coast, there were two very intense wet spells and a number of dry spells during the season. In OND 2009, only the north coast (Tanga) experienced above average rainfall, comprised of three wet spells with the one about a month after the beginning of the season being very intense. These data highlight the complexity of the rainfall distributions in the coastal region. A shift of the Walker circulation over coastal East Africa with strong uplift there seemed to be responsible for the very wet conditions during OND 2006. The marine air mass being advected from the western tropical Indian Ocean towards East Africa contained more moisture than average. Similar, but weaker, horizontal circulation anomalies occurred in OND 2009

  9. Multi-scale Holocene Asian monsoon variability deduced from a twin-stalagmite record in southwestern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wei; Wang, Yongjin; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, Richard Lawrence; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Liu, Dianbing; Shao, Qingfeng; Deng, Chao; Zhang, Zhenqiu; Wang, Quan

    2016-07-01

    We present two isotopic (δ18O and δ13C) sequences of a twin-stalagmite from Zhuliuping Cave, southwestern China, with 230Th dates from 14.6 to 4.6 ka. The stalagmite δ18O record characterizes orbital- to decadal-scale variability of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) intensity, with the Holocene optimum period (HOP) between 9.8 and 6.8 ka BP which is reinforced by its co-varying δ13C data. The large multi-decadal scale amplitude of the cave δ18O indicates its high sensitivity to climate change. Four centennial-scale weak ASM events during the early Holocene are centered at 11.2, 10.8, 9.1 and 8.2 ka. They can be correlated to cold periods in the northern high latitudes, possibly resulting from rapid dynamics of atmospheric circulation associated with North Atlantic cooling. The 8.2 ka event has an amplitude more than two-thirds that of the Younger Dryas (YD), and is significantly stronger than other cave records in the Asia monsoon region, likely indicating a more severe dry climate condition at the cave site. At the end of the YD event, the δ13C record lags the δ18O record by 300-500 yr, suggesting a multi-centennial slow response of vegetation and soil processes to monsoon enhancement.

  10. Southern Hemisphere control on Australian monsoon variability during the late deglaciation and Holocene.

    PubMed

    Kuhnt, Wolfgang; Holbourn, Ann; Xu, Jian; Opdyke, Bradley; De Deckker, Patrick; Röhl, Ursula; Mudelsee, Manfred

    2015-01-01

    The evolution of the Australian monsoon in relation to high-latitude temperature fluctuations over the last termination remains highly enigmatic. Here we integrate high-resolution riverine runoff and dust proxy data from X-ray fluorescence scanner measurements in four well-dated sediment cores, forming a NE-SW transect across the Timor Sea. Our records reveal that the development of the Australian monsoon closely followed the deglacial warming history of Antarctica. A minimum in riverine runoff documents dry conditions throughout the region during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (15-12.9 ka). Massive intensification of the monsoon coincided with Southern Hemisphere warming and intensified greenhouse forcing over Australia during the atmospheric CO2 rise at 12.9-10 ka. We relate the earlier onset of the monsoon in the Timor Strait (13.4 ka) to regional changes in landmass exposure during deglacial sea-level rise. A return to dryer conditions occurred between 8.1 and 7.3 ka following the early Holocene runoff maximum. PMID:25562847

  11. Spatiotemporal variability of hypoxia and eutrophication in Manila Bay, Philippines during the northeast and southwest monsoons.

    PubMed

    Sotto, Lara Patricia A; Jacinto, Gil S; Villanoy, Cesar L

    2014-08-30

    Hypoxia in Manila Bay, Philippines was previously reported during the northeast monsoon (dry season) in February 2010. In this study, four more field surveys of the same 31 stations were conducted in July 2010, August 2011 and 2012 (wet season, southwest monsoon), and February 2011 (dry season, northeast monsoon). During the wet season, bottom hypoxia spread northward towards the coast with dissolved oxygen (DO) ranging from 0.12 to 9.22 mg/L and the bay-wide average reaching 2.10 mg/L. Nutrient levels were elevated, especially near the bottom where dissolved inorganic nitrogen reached 22.3 μM (July 2010) and phosphorus reached 5.61 μM (August 2011). High nutrient concentrations often coincided with low near-bottom DO content. Our work builds on the preliminary assessment of hypoxia in Manila Bay, the importance of repeated temporal studies, and shows hypoxia to prevail significantly during the southwest monsoon (wet season) when increased freshwater discharge caused strong water column stratification.

  12. Southern Hemisphere control on Australian monsoon variability during the late deglaciation and Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuhnt, Wolfgang; Holbourn, Ann; Xu, Jian; Opdyke, Bradley; de Deckker, Patrick; Röhl, Ursula; Mudelsee, Manfred

    2015-01-01

    The evolution of the Australian monsoon in relation to high-latitude temperature fluctuations over the last termination remains highly enigmatic. Here we integrate high-resolution riverine runoff and dust proxy data from X-ray fluorescence scanner measurements in four well-dated sediment cores, forming a NE-SW transect across the Timor Sea. Our records reveal that the development of the Australian monsoon closely followed the deglacial warming history of Antarctica. A minimum in riverine runoff documents dry conditions throughout the region during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (15-12.9 ka). Massive intensification of the monsoon coincided with Southern Hemisphere warming and intensified greenhouse forcing over Australia during the atmospheric CO2 rise at 12.9-10 ka. We relate the earlier onset of the monsoon in the Timor Strait (13.4 ka) to regional changes in landmass exposure during deglacial sea-level rise. A return to dryer conditions occurred between 8.1 and 7.3 ka following the early Holocene runoff maximum.

  13. Response of Asian summer monsoon duration to orbital forcing under glacial and interglacial conditions: Implication for precipitation variability in geological records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Zhengguo

    2016-05-01

    The responses of Asian summer monsoon and associated precipitation to orbital forcing have been intensively explored during the past 30 years, but debate still exists regarding whether or not the Asian monsoon is controlled by northern or southern summer insolation on the precessional timescale. Various modeling studies have been conducted that support the potential roles played by the insolation in both hemispheres. Among these previous studies, however, the main emphasis has been on the Asian monsoon intensity, with the response of monsoon duration having received little consideration. In the present study, the response of the rainy season duration over different monsoon areas to orbital forcing and its contribution to total annual precipitation are evaluated using an atmospheric general circulation model. The results show that the durations of the rainy seasons, especially their withdrawal, in northern East Asia and the India-Bay of Bengal region, are sensitive to precession change under interglacial-like conditions. Compared to those during stronger boreal summer insolation, the Asian monsoon-associated rainy seasons at weaker insolation last longer, although the peak intensity is smaller. This longer duration of rainfall, which results from the change in land-ocean thermal contrast associated with atmospheric diabatic heating, can counterbalance the weakened intensity in certain places and induce an opposite response of total annual precipitation. However, the duration effect of Asian monsoon is limited under glacial-like conditions. Nevertheless, monsoon duration is a factor that can dominate the orbital-scale variability of Asian monsoon, alongside the intensity, and it should therefore receive greater attention when attempting to explain orbital-scale monsoon change.

  14. Biogeochemical variability in the central equatorial Indian Ocean during the monsoon transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strutton, P. G.; Coles, V. J.; Hood, R. R.; Matear, R. J.; McPhaden, M. J.; Phillips, H. E.

    2015-04-01

    In this paper we examine time-series measurements of near-surface chlorophyll concentration from a mooring that was deployed at 80.5°E on the equator in the Indian Ocean in 2010. These data reveal at least six striking spikes in chlorophyll from October through December, at approximately 2-week intervals, that coincide with the development of the fall Wyrtki jets during the transition between the summer and winter monsoons. Concurrent meteorological and in situ physical measurements from the mooring reveal that the chlorophyll pulses are associated with the intensification of eastward winds at the surface and eastward currents in the mixed layer. These observations are inconsistent with upwelling dynamics as they occur in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, since eastward winds that force Wyrtki jet intensification should drive downwelling. The chlorophyll spikes could be explained by two alternative mechanisms: (1) turbulent entrainment of nutrients and/or chlorophyll from across the base of the mixed layer by wind stirring or Wyrtki jet-induced shear instability or (2) enhanced southward advection of high chlorophyll concentrations into the equatorial zone. The first mechanism is supported by the phasing and amplitude of the relationship between wind stress and chlorophyll, which suggests that the chlorophyll spikes are the result of turbulent entrainment driven by synoptic zonal wind events. The second mechanism is supported by the observation of eastward flows over the Chagos-Laccadive Ridge, generating high chlorophyll to the north of the equator. Occasional southward advection can then produce the chlorophyll spikes that are observed in the mooring record. Wind-forced biweekly mixed Rossby gravity waves are a ubiquitous feature of the ocean circulation in this region, and we examine the possibility that they may play a role in chlorophyll variability. Statistical analyses and results from the OFAM3 (Ocean Forecasting Australia Model, version 3) eddy

  15. Abrupt climate change in southeast tropical Africa influenced by Indian monsoon variability and ITCZ migration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tierney, Jessica E.; Russell, James M.

    2007-08-01

    The timing and magnitude of abrupt climate change in tropical Africa during the last glacial termination remains poorly understood. High-resolution paleolimnological data from Lake Tanganyika, Southeast Africa show that wind-driven seasonal mixing in the lake was reduced during the Younger Dryas, Inter-Allerød Cool Period, Older Dryas, and Heinrich Event 1, suggesting a weakened southwest Indian monsoon and a more southerly position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over Africa during these intervals. These events in Lake Tanganyika, coeval with millennial and centennial-scale climate shifts in the high latitudes, suggest that changes in ITCZ location and Indian monsoon strength are important components of abrupt global climate change and that their effects are felt south of the equator in Africa. However, we observe additional events in Lake Tanganyika of equal magnitude that are not correlated with high-latitude changes, indicating the potential for abrupt climate change to originate from within tropical systems.

  16. Antarctic link with East Asian summer monsoon variability during the Heinrich Stadial-Bølling interstadial transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Hongbin; Griffiths, Michael L.; Huang, Junhua; Cai, Yanjun; Wang, Canfa; Zhang, Fan; Cheng, Hai; Ning, Youfeng; Hu, Chaoyong; Xie, Shucheng

    2016-11-01

    Previous research has shown a strong persistence for direct teleconnections between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and high northern latitude climate variability during the last glacial and deglaciation, in particular between monsoon weakening and a reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, less attention has been paid to EASM strengthening as the AMOC was reinvigorated following peak Northern Hemisphere (NH) cooling. Moreover, climate model simulations have suggested a strong role for Antarctic meltwater discharge in modulating northward heat transport and hence NH warming, yet the degree to which Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate anomalies impacted the Asian monsoon region is still unclear. Here we present a new stalagmite oxygen-isotope record from the EASM affected region of central China, which documents two prominent stages of increased 18O-depleted moisture delivery to the region through the transition from Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) to the Bølling-Allerød (B-A) interstadial; this is in general agreement with the other monsoonal records from both NH and SH mid to low latitudes. Through novel comparisons with a recent iceberg-rafted debris (IRD) record from the Southern Ocean, we propose that the two-stage EASM intensification observed in our speleothem records were linked with two massive Antarctic icesheet discharge (AID) events at ∼16.0 ka and ∼14.7 ka, immediately following the peak HS1 stadial event. Notably, the large increase in EASM intensity at the beginning of the HS1/B-A transition (∼16 ka) is relatively muted in the NH higher latitudes, and better aligns with the changes observed in the SH, indicating the Antarctic and Southern Ocean perturbations could have an active role in driving the initial EASM strengthening at this time. Indeed, Antarctic freshwater input to the Southern Ocean during these AID events would have cooled the surrounding surface waters and caused an expansion of sea ice, restricting the

  17. Impact of a projected future Antarctic sea-ice reduction on the West African Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bader, Juergen; Voigt, Aiko; Zanchettin, Davide

    2013-04-01

    Several model and observational studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between Sahel rainfall variability and sea-surface temperatures anomalies during the 20th century. However, this relationship does not explain Sahel rainfall changes in model projections of the 21st century. This raises the possibility that other forcing factors might become predominant at the end of the 21st century. Here, simulations with the atmosphere general circulaton model ECHAM5 are performed to investigate to which extent reductions in Antarctic sea ice affect Sahel rainfall during boreal summer. To this end, the model is forced by the present and a projected future seasonal cycle of Antarctic sea ice with sea-surface temperatures outside tha Antarctic sea-ice region kept constant. Reducing the Antarctic sea ice leads to an equatorward shift of the tropical rainbelt over sub-Saharan Africa. The shift entails a strong decline of summer Sahel rainfall and a substantial rainfall increase along the Guinea Coast. The shift is associated with an atmospheric bridge that does not require changes in tropical sea-surface temperatures. While Antarctic sea-ice reductions clearly impact Sahel rainfall in our idealized ECHAM5 simulatons, they do not seem to substantially influence Sahel rainfall in the ECHAM5 CMIP3 A1B simulation.

  18. Meridional Propagation of the MJO/ISO and Asian Monsoon Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Man Li C.; Schubert, Siegfried; Suarez, Max; Pegion, Phil; Waliser, D.

    2003-01-01

    In this study we examine the links between tropical heating, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)/Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO), and the Asian monsoon. We are particularly interested in isolating the nature of the poleward propagation of the ISO/MJO in the monsoon region. We examine both observations and idealized "MJO heating" experiments employing the NASA Seasonal-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). In the idealized 10-member ensemble simulations, the model is forced by climatological SST and an idealized eastward propagating heating profile that is meant to mimic the canonical heating associated with the MJO in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. In order to understand the impact of SST on the off equatorial convection (or Rossby-wave response), a second set of 10-member ensemble simulations is carried out with the climatological SSTs shifted in time by 6-months. The observational analysis highlights the strong link between the Indian summer monsoon and the tropical ISO/MJO activity and heating. This includes the well-known meridional propagation that affects the summer monsoons of both hemispheres. The AGCM experiments with the idealized eastward propagating MJO-like heating reproduce the observed meridional propagation including the observed seasonal differences. The impact of the SSTs are to enhance the magnitude of the propagation into the summer hemispheres. The results suggest that the winter/summer differences associated with the MJO/ISO are auxiliary features that depend on the MJO's environment (basic state and boundary conditions) and are not the result of fundamental differences in the MJO itself.

  19. Multi-Site and Multi-Variables Statistical Downscaling Technique in the Monsoon Dominated Region of Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    South Asia is under the severe impacts of changing climate and global warming. The last two decades showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the first decade of 21st century is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C in 2010. Consequently, the spatio-temporal distribution and intensity of precipitation is badly effected and causes floods, cyclones and hurricanes in the region which further have impacts on agriculture, water, health etc. To cope with the situation, it is important to conduct impact assessment studies and take adaptation and mitigation remedies. For impact assessment studies, we need climate variables at higher resolution. Downscaling techniques are used to produce climate variables at higher resolution; these techniques are broadly divided into two types, statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling. The target location of this study is the monsoon dominated region of Pakistan. One reason for choosing this area is because the contribution of monsoon rains in this area is more than 80 % of the total rainfall. This study evaluates a statistical downscaling technique which can be then used for downscaling climatic variables. Two statistical techniques i.e. quantile regression and copula modeling are combined in order to produce realistic results for climate variables in the area under-study. To reduce the dimension of input data and deal with multicollinearity problems, empirical orthogonal functions will be used. Advantages of this new method are: (1) it is more robust to outliers as compared to ordinary least squares estimates and other estimation methods based on central tendency and dispersion measures; (2) it preserves the dependence among variables and among sites and (3) it can be used to combine different types of distributions. This is important in our case because we are dealing with climatic variables having different distributions over different meteorological

  20. Significant impacts of radiation physics in the Weather Research and Forecasting model on the precipitation and dynamics of the West African Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, R.; Jin, J.; Wang, S.-Y.; Gillies, R. R.

    2015-03-01

    Precipitation from the West African Monsoon (WAM) provides food security and supports the economy in the region. As a consequence of the intrinsic complexities of the WAM's evolution, accurate simulations of the WAM and its precipitation regime, through the application of regional climate models, are challenging. We used the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Land Model (CLM) to explore impacts of radiation physics on the precipitation and dynamics of the WAM. Our results indicate that the radiation physics schemes not only produce biases in radiation fluxes impacting radiative forcing, but more importantly, result in large bias in precipitation of the WAM. Furthermore, the different radiation schemes led to variations in the meridional gradient of surface temperature between the north that is the Sahara desert and the south Guinean coastline. Climate diagnostics indicated that the changes in the meridional gradient of surface temperature affect the position and strength of the African Easterly Jet as well as the low-level monsoonal inflow from the Gulf of Guinea. The net result was that each radiation scheme produced differences in the WAM precipitation regime both spatially and in intensity. Such considerable variances in the WAM precipitation regime and dynamics, resulting from radiation representations, likely have strong feedbacks within the climate system and so have inferences when it comes to aspects of predicted climate change both for the region and globally.

  1. Phenology Analysis of Forest Vegetation to Environmental Variables during - and Post-Monsoon Seasons in Western Himalayan Region of India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khare, S.; Latifi, H.; Ghosh, K.

    2016-06-01

    To assess the phenological changes in Moist Deciduous Forest (MDF) of western Himalayan region of India, we carried out NDVI time series analysis from 2013 to 2015 using Landsat 8 OLI data. We used the vegetation index differencing method to calculate the change in NDVI (NDVIchange) during pre and post monsoon seasons and these changes were used to assess the phenological behaviour of MDF by taking the effect of a set of environmental variables into account. To understand the effect of environmental variables on change in phenology, we designed a linear regression analysis with sample-based NDVIchange values as the response variable and elevation aspect, and Land Surface Temperature (LST) as explanatory variables. The Landsat-8 derived phenology transition stages were validated by calculating the phenology variation from Nov 2008 to April 2009 using Landsat-7 which has the same spatial resolution as Landsat-8. The Landsat-7 derived NDVI trajectories were plotted in accordance with MODIS derived phenology stages (from Nov 2008 to April 2009) of MDF. Results indicate that the Landsat -8 derived NDVI trajectories describing the phenology variation of MDF during spring, monsoon autumn and winter seasons agreed closely with Landsat-7 and MODIS derived phenology transition from Nov 2008 to April 2009. Furthermore, statistical analysis showed statistically significant correlations (p < 0.05) amongst the environmental variables and the NDVIchange between full greenness and maximum frequency stage of Onset of Greenness (OG) activity.. The major change in NDVI was observed in medium (600 to 650 m) and maximum (650 to 750 m) elevation areas. The change in LST showed also to be highly influential. The results of this study can be used for large scale monitoring of difficult-to-reach mountainous forests, with additional implications in biodiversity assessment. By means of a sufficient amount of available cloud-free imagery, detailed phenological trends across mountainous

  2. A ~25 ka Indian Ocean monsoon variability record from the Andaman Sea

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rashid, H.; Flower, B.P.; Poore, R.Z.; Quinn, T.M.

    2007-01-01

    Recent paleoclimatic work on terrestrial and marine deposits from Asia and the Indian Ocean has indicated abrupt changes in the strength of the Asian monsoon during the last deglaciation. Comparison of marine paleoclimate records that track salinity changes from Asian rivers can help evaluate the coherence of the Indian Ocean monsoon (IOM) with the larger Asian monsoon. Here we present paired Mg/Ca and δ18O data on the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white) from Andaman Sea core RC12-344 that provide records of sea-surface temperature (SST) and δ18O of seawater (δ18Osw) over the past 25,000 years (ka) before present (BP). Age control is based on nine accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dates on mixed planktic foraminifera. Mg/Ca-SST data indicate that SST was ∼3 °C cooler during the last glacial maximum (LGM) than the late Holocene. Andaman Sea δ18Osw exhibited higher than present values during the Lateglacial interval ca 19–15 ka BP and briefly during the Younger Dryas ca 12 ka BP. Lower than present δ18Osw values during the BØlling/AllerØd ca 14.5–12.6 ka BP and during the early Holocene ca 10.8–5.5 ka BP are interpreted to indicate lower salinity, reflect some combination of decreased evaporation–precipitation (E–P) over the Andaman Sea and increased Irrawaddy River outflow. Our results are consistent with the suggestion that IOM intensity was stronger than present during the BØlling/AllerØd and early Holocene, and weaker during the late glaciation, Younger Dryas, and the late Holocene. These findings support the hypothesis that rapid climate change during the last deglaciation and Holocene included substantial hydrologic changes in the IOM system that were coherent with the larger Asian monsoon.

  3. Radiative forcing of Sahara dust and its impacts on the hydrological cycle in the West African monsoon system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, C.; Liu, X.; Leung, L.; Hagos, S. M.

    2010-12-01

    The WRF-Chem model is applied to simulate the radiative forcing of dust and its impacts on the hydrological cycle during the monsoon season over West Africa (WA). The GOCART dust emission scheme is coupled into two aerosol models (MADE/SORGAM and MOSAIC) in WRF-Chem. During the monsoon season, dust is a dominant contributor to AOD near the dust source regions. Dust heats the atmosphere, and warms the surface in the nighttime through trapping the longwave radiation but cools the surface in the daytime through reducing the shortwave radiation. Dust modifies the surface energy budget through changing radiation, latent heat, and sensible heat fluxes, and results in large surface cooling effect in the afternoon but warming effect in the early morning during the monsoon season over WA. In the standard model configuration, the dust effect on total daily precipitation is small in both strong and weak monsoon years, but is sensitive to the dust absorbing properties. On the other hand, the dust-driven change of the stability of atmosphere significantly reduces the diurnal variation of precipitation during the monsoon season over WA, and improves the model simulation when compared to available observations.

  4. Can Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model Improve the Simulation of the Interannual Variability of Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, L.; Zhou, T.

    2012-12-01

    With the motivation to improve the simulation of interannual variability of western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM), a flexible regional ocean-atmosphere-land system coupled model (FROALS) was developed through the OASIS3.0 coupler. The regionally coupled model is composed of a regional climate model RegCM3 as its atmospheric component, a global climate ocean model (LICOM) as its oceanic component. Impacts of local air-sea interaction on the simulation of interannual variability of WNPSM are investigated by performing regionally ocean-atmosphere coupled and uncoupled simulations, with focus on the El Niño decaying summer. Compared to uncoupled simulation, the regionally coupled simulation exhibits improvements in both the climatology and interannual variability of rainfall over WNP. In El Niño decaying summer, the WNP saw an anomalous anticyclone, less rainfall and enhanced subsidence, which led to an increase in downward shortwave radiation flux, and thereby a warmer SST anomalies. Thus the ocean appears as a slave to atmospheric forcing. But in the uncoupled simulation, the atmosphere is a slave to oceanic SST forcing, the warmer SST anomalies located over east of the Philippines unrealistically produce excessive rainfall. In the regionally coupled run, the un-realistic positive rainfall anomalies and the associated atmospheric circulations over east of the Philippines are significantly improved, highlighting the importance of air-sea coupling in the simulation of interannual variability of WNPSM. One limitation of the model is that the anomalous anticyclone over WNP is weaker than the observation in both the regionally coupled and uncoupled simulations. This is resulted from the weaker simulated climatological summer rainfall intensity over the monsoon trough.

  5. Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago.

    PubMed

    Neff, U; Burns, S J; Mangini, A; Mudelsee, M; Fleitmann, D; Matter, A

    2001-05-17

    Variations in the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth are thought to influence climate, but the extent of this influence on timescales of millennia to decades is unclear. A number of climate records show correlations between solar cycles and climate, but the absolute changes in solar intensity over the range of decades to millennia are small and the influence of solar flux on climate is not well established. The formation of stalagmites in northern Oman has recorded past northward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone, whose northward migration stops near the southern shoreline of Arabia in the present climate. Here we present a high-resolution record of oxygen isotope variations, for the period from 9.6 to 6.1 kyr before present, in a Th-U-dated stalagmite from Oman. The delta18O record from the stalagmite, which serves as a proxy for variations in the tropical circulation and monsoon rainfall, allows us to make a direct comparison of the delta18O record with the Delta14C record from tree rings, which largely reflects changes in solar activity. The excellent correlation between the two records suggests that one of the primary controls on centennial- to decadal-scale changes in tropical rainfall and monsoon intensity during this time are variations in solar radiation.

  6. Variability and risk analysis of Hong Kong air quality based on Monsoon and El Niño conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jong-Suk; Zhou, Wen; Cheung, Ho Nam; Chow, Chak Hang

    2013-03-01

    This study presents an exploratory analysis aimed at improving understanding of the variability of Hong Kong air quality associated with different climate conditions. Significantly negative correlations were found when Niño 3 led particulate matter ⩽10 μm PM10) and NO2 by 2-3 months over the Hong Kong territory, while the other pollutants (e.g., O3, SO2) showed modest correlations. A significant decreasing trend in visibility was observed during the autumn and winter, which has potential implications for the air-quality degradation and the endangerment of human health in Hong Kong. In an El Niño summer, the visibility was relatively better, while visibility in other seasons was diminished. On the other hand, in La Niña events, significant changes occurred in visibility in winter and autumn. Air pollution indices were less sensitive to the South China Summer Monsoon (SCSM), but a relatively high correlation existed between the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and air pollutants. Rainfall was lower during most of the strong EAWM years compared to the weak years. This result suggests that the pollutants that accumulate in Hong Kong are not easy to wash out, so concentrations remain at a higher level. Finally, based on the conditional Air Pollution Index (API) risk assessment, site-specific vulnerabilities were analyzed to facilitate the development of the air-quality warning systems in Hong Kong.

  7. Subseasonal to multidecadal variability of northeast monsoon daily rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia using a hidden Markov model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Wei Lun; Yusof, Fadhilah; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2016-04-01

    This study involves the modelling of a homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) on the northeast rainfall monsoon using 40 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of 1975 to 2008. A six hidden states HMM was selected based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and every hidden state has distinct rainfall characteristics. Three of the states were found to correspond by wet conditions; while the remaining three states were found to correspond to dry conditions. The six hidden states were found to correspond with the associated atmospheric composites. The relationships between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are found regarding interannual variability. The wet (dry) states were found to be well correlated with a Niño 3.4 index which was used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. This model is able to assess the behaviour of the rainfall characteristics with the large scale atmospheric circulation; the monsoon rainfall is well correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Peninsular Malaysia.

  8. Molecular records of continental air temperature and monsoon precipitation variability in East Asia spanning the past 130,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peterse, Francien; Martínez-García, Alfredo; Zhou, Bin; Beets, Christiaan J.; Prins, Maarten A.; Zheng, Hongbo; Eglinton, Timothy I.

    2014-01-01

    Our current understanding of past changes in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation intensity derives from several loess-paleosol sequences and oxygen isotope (δ18O) records of well-dated stalagmites. Although temperature is generally presumed to have had minimal impact on EASM records, past air temperature dynamics over East Asia are, so far, relatively poorly understood, mainly due to the lack of tools to reconstruct continental paleotemperatures. Here we report a high-resolution record of East Asian air temperature over the past 130,000 years, based on soil bacterial lipid signatures preserved in a loess-paleosol sequence from the Mangshan loess plateau in China. We find that maximum local insolation is the main driver of air temperature, although greenhouse gas concentrations and southern hemisphere climate may influence temperature at times when insolation is weak, causing a decoupling with EASM precipitation intensity. Direct comparison of our temperature record with precipitation-induced changes in past soil pH, derived from the same suite of lipids confirms this decoupling. Subsequent cross-spectral analysis of the two molecular proxy records reveals that variations in monsoon precipitation consistently lag those in air temperature throughout the whole record at the dominant precession band. The length of this lag is variable however, and increases as glaciation develops. This observation is consistent with an increasing influence of northern hemisphere ice sheets on the modulation of EASM response to insolation forcing during ice ages.

  9. Probabilistic versus Deterministic Skill in Predicting the Western North Pacific- East Asian Summer Monsoon Variability with Multi-Model Ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, D.; Yang, X. Q.; Xie, Q.; Zhang, Y.; Ren, X.; Tang, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Based on the historical forecasts of three quasi-operational multi-model ensemble (MME) systems, this study assesses the superiorities of the coupled MME over its contributing single-model ensembles (SMEs) and over the uncoupled atmospheric MME in predicting the seasonal variability of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon. The seasonal prediction skill of the monsoon is measured by Brier skill score (BSS) in the sense of probabilistic forecast as well as by anomaly correlation (AC) in the sense of deterministic forecast. The probabilistic forecast skill of the MME is found to be always significantly better than that of each participating SME, while the deterministic forecast skill of the MME is even worse than that of some SME. The BSS is composed of reliability and resolution, two attributes characterizing probabilistic forecast skill. The probabilistic skill increase of the MME is dominated by the drastic improvement in reliability, while resolution is not always improved, similar to AC. A monotonous resolution-AC relationship is further found and qualitatively understood, whereas little relationship can be identified between reliability and AC. It is argued that the MME's success in improving the reliability possibly arises from an effective reduction of biases and overconfidence in forecast distributions. The coupled MME is much more skillful than the uncoupled atmospheric MME forced by persisted sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This advantage is mainly attributed to its better capability in capturing the evolution of the underlying seasonal SST anomaly.

  10. Variability of Moisture Sources and Moisture Transport in the East Asian Monsoon System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fremme, Astrid; Sodemann, Harald

    2016-04-01

    The rainfall of the East Asian Monsoon is of key importance for livelihoods in the densely populated area of China, Japan and Korea. The interplay of many factors, including land surface processes, makes monsoon precipitation difficult to predict. To contribute to improved precipitation prediction we investigate the atmospheric mechanisms importing moisture to the region. In previous studies moisture transport has mainly been analysed by examining a combination of temperature, pressure, winds and water vapour content. However this has been done without linking precipitation to its moisture sources directly. In this project we use the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART and the diagnostic tool WaterSip to analyse ERA Interim reanalysis data to obtain a link between precipitation and its moisture sources. The total atmospheric mass is subdivided into millions air parcels, which are traced backwards for 20 days for each rainfall event in the 34 year ERA-Interim period. Specific humidity changes are interpreted as evaporation and precipitation in the area beneath the parcel with the help of a sophisticated accounting method related to target precipitation. Results on the relationship between source and sink areas reflect changes in the conditions of the source regions and in moisture transport. We investigate the moisture transport mechanisms for both seasonal and inter-annual variations during the study period 1979-2013. Preliminary results show that the sources for precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) in China have a clear seasonal cycle in terms of location and evaporation conditions. Land areas outside the YRV Region contribute most of the moisture. The second largest source is inside the YRV region itself. For monthly means the sum of all direct oceanic sources rarely exceeds 20%. Recycling of moisture from land surfaces outside the target regions therefore seems to play a pivotal role in the East Asian Monsoon's moisture budget. Contrasting

  11. Factors Affecting the Inter-annual to Centennial Time Scale Variability of All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    The All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) is highly important for the livelihood of more than 1 billion people living in the Indian sub-continent. The agriculture of this region is heavily dependent on seasonal (JJAS) monsoon rainfall. An early start or a slight delay of monsoon, or an early withdrawal or prolonged monsoon season may upset the farmer's agricultural plans, can cause significant reduction in crop yield, and hence economic loss. Understanding of AISMR is also vital because it is a part of global atmospheric circulation system. Several studies show that AISMR is influenced by internal climate forcings (ICFs) viz. ENSO, AMO, PDO etc. as well as external climate forcings (ECFs) viz. Greenhouse Gases, volcanic eruptions, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). We investigate the influence of ICFs and ECFs on AISMR using recently developed statistical technique called De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA). DPCCA can analyse a complex system of several interlinked variables. Often, climatic variables, being cross correlated, are simultaneously tele-connected with several other variables and it is not easy to isolate their intrinsic relationship. In the presence of non-stationarities and background signals the calculated correlation coefficients can be overestimated and erroneous. DPCCA method removes the non-stationarities and partials out the influence of background signals from the variables being cross correlated and thus give a robust estimate of correlation. We have performed the analysis using NOAA Reconstructed SSTs and homogenised instrumental AISMR data set from 1854-1999. By employing the DPCCA method we find that there is a statistically insignificant negative intrinsic relation (by excluding the influence of ICFs, and ECFs except TSI) between AISMR and TSI on decadal to centennial time scale. The ICFs considerably modulate the relation between AISMR and solar activity between 50-80 year time scales and transform this relationship

  12. Variability of stalagmite-inferred Indian monsoon precipitation over the past 252,000 y.

    PubMed

    Cai, Yanjun; Fung, Inez Y; Edwards, R Lawrence; An, Zhisheng; Cheng, Hai; Lee, Jung-Eun; Tan, Liangcheng; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Wang, Xianfeng; Day, Jesse A; Zhou, Weijian; Kelly, Megan J; Chiang, John C H

    2015-03-10

    A speleothem δ(18)O record from Xiaobailong cave in southwest China characterizes changes in summer monsoon precipitation in Northeastern India, the Himalayan foothills, Bangladesh, and northern Indochina over the last 252 kyr. This record is dominated by 23-kyr precessional cycles punctuated by prominent millennial-scale oscillations that are synchronous with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. It also shows clear glacial-interglacial variations that are consistent with marine and other terrestrial proxies but are different from the cave records in East China. Corroborated by isotope-enabled global circulation modeling, we hypothesize that this disparity reflects differing changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture trajectories associated with climate forcing as well as with associated topographic changes during glacial periods, in particular redistribution of air mass above the growing ice sheets and the exposure of the "land bridge" in the Maritime continents in the western equatorial Pacific.

  13. Variability of stalagmite-inferred Indian monsoon precipitation over the past 252,000 y.

    PubMed

    Cai, Yanjun; Fung, Inez Y; Edwards, R Lawrence; An, Zhisheng; Cheng, Hai; Lee, Jung-Eun; Tan, Liangcheng; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Wang, Xianfeng; Day, Jesse A; Zhou, Weijian; Kelly, Megan J; Chiang, John C H

    2015-03-10

    A speleothem δ(18)O record from Xiaobailong cave in southwest China characterizes changes in summer monsoon precipitation in Northeastern India, the Himalayan foothills, Bangladesh, and northern Indochina over the last 252 kyr. This record is dominated by 23-kyr precessional cycles punctuated by prominent millennial-scale oscillations that are synchronous with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. It also shows clear glacial-interglacial variations that are consistent with marine and other terrestrial proxies but are different from the cave records in East China. Corroborated by isotope-enabled global circulation modeling, we hypothesize that this disparity reflects differing changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture trajectories associated with climate forcing as well as with associated topographic changes during glacial periods, in particular redistribution of air mass above the growing ice sheets and the exposure of the "land bridge" in the Maritime continents in the western equatorial Pacific. PMID:25713347

  14. Teleconnection Linking Asian/Pacific Monsoon Variability and Summertime Droughts and Floods Over the United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K. M.; Weng, Hengyi

    2000-01-01

    Major droughts and floods over the U.S. continent may be related to a far field energy source in the Asian Pacific. This is illustrated by two climate patterns associated with summertime rainfall over the U.S. and large-scale circulation on interannual timescale. The first shows an opposite variation between the drought/flood over the Midwest and that over eastern and southeastern U.S., coupled to a coherent wave pattern spanning the entire East Asia-North Pacific-North America region related to the East Asian jetstream. The second shows a continental-scale drought/flood in the central U.S., coupled to a wavetrain linking Asian/Pacific monsoon region to North America.

  15. Variability of stalagmite-inferred Indian monsoon precipitation over the past 252,000 y

    PubMed Central

    Cai, Yanjun; Fung, Inez Y.; Edwards, R. Lawrence; An, Zhisheng; Cheng, Hai; Lee, Jung-Eun; Tan, Liangcheng; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Wang, Xianfeng; Day, Jesse A.; Zhou, Weijian; Kelly, Megan J.; Chiang, John C. H.

    2015-01-01

    A speleothem δ18O record from Xiaobailong cave in southwest China characterizes changes in summer monsoon precipitation in Northeastern India, the Himalayan foothills, Bangladesh, and northern Indochina over the last 252 kyr. This record is dominated by 23-kyr precessional cycles punctuated by prominent millennial-scale oscillations that are synchronous with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. It also shows clear glacial–interglacial variations that are consistent with marine and other terrestrial proxies but are different from the cave records in East China. Corroborated by isotope-enabled global circulation modeling, we hypothesize that this disparity reflects differing changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture trajectories associated with climate forcing as well as with associated topographic changes during glacial periods, in particular redistribution of air mass above the growing ice sheets and the exposure of the “land bridge” in the Maritime continents in the western equatorial Pacific. PMID:25713347

  16. 300 Years of East African Climate Variability from Oxygen Isotopes in a Kenya Coral

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunbar, R.

    2003-04-01

    Instrumental records of climate variability from the western Indian Ocean are relatively scarce and short. Here I present a monthly resolution stable isotopic record acquired from a large living coral head (Porites) from the Malindi Marine Reserve, Kenya (3^oS, 40^oE). The annual chronology is precise and is based on exceptionally clear high and low density growth band couplets. The record extends from 1696 to 1996 A.D., making it the longest coral climate record from the Indian Ocean and one of the longest available worldwide. We have analyzed the uppermost portion of the coral colony in triplicate, using 3 separate cores. This upper section, used for calibration purposes, also provides estimates of signal fidelity and noise in the climate recording system internal to the colony. Coral δ18O at this site primarily records SST; linear regression of monthly coral δ18O vs. SST yields a slope of -0.26 ppm δ18O per ^oC, and δ18O explains ˜57% of the SST variance. Additional isotopic variability may result from changes in seawater δ18O due to local runoff or regional evaporation/precipitation balance, but these changes are likely to be small because local rainfall δ18O is not strongly depleted relative to seawater and salinity gradients are small. The coral record indicates a clear warming trend of about 1.5^oC that accelerates in the latest 20th century, superimposed on strong decadal variability that persists throughout the record. In fact, δ18O values in the 1990's exceed the 300 year envelope (they are lower) and correspond with apparently unprecedented coral bleaching in coastal East Africa. The decadal component of the Malindi coral record reflects a regional climate signal spanning much of the western equatorial Indian Ocean. In general, East African SST and rainfall are better correlated with Pacific ENSO indicators than with the Indian Monsoon at all periods (inter-annual through multi-decadal) but the correlation weakens after 1975. One dramatic new

  17. Radiative impact of mineral dust on monsoon precipitation variability over West Africa

    SciTech Connect

    Zhao, Chun; Liu, Xiaohong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hagos, Samson M.

    2011-03-01

    The radiative forcing of dust and its impact on precipitation over the West Africa monsoon (WAM) region is simulated using a coupled meteorology and aerosol/chemistry model (WRF-Chem). During the monsoon season, dust is a dominant contributor to AOD over West Africa. In the standard simulation, on 24-hour domain average, dust has a cooling effect (-6.11 W/m2) at the surface, a warming effect (6.94 W/m2) in the atmosphere, and a relatively small TOA forcing (0.83 W/m2). Dust modifies the surface energy budget and atmospheric diabatic heating and hence causes lower atmospheric cooling in the daytime but warming in the nighttime. As a result, atmospheric stability is increased in the daytime and reduced in the nighttime, leading to a reduction of late afternoon precipitation by up to 0.14 mm/hour (30%) and an increase of nocturnal and early morning precipitation by up to 0.04 mm/hour (23%) over the WAM region. Dust-induced reduction of diurnal precipitation variation improves the simulated diurnal cycle of precipitation when compared to measurements. However, daily precipitation is only changed by a relatively small amount (-0.14 mm/day or -4%). On the other hand, sensitivity simulations show that, for weaker-to-stronger absorbing dust, dust longwave warming effect in the nighttime surpasses its shortwave cooling effect in the daytime at the surface, leading to a less stable atmosphere associated with more convective precipitation in the nighttime. As a result, the dust-induced change of daily WAM precipitation varies from a significant reduction of -0.40 mm/day (-12%, weaker absorbing dust) to a small increase of 0.05 mm/day (1%, stronger absorbing dust). This variation originates from the competition between dust impact on daytime and nighttime precipitation, which depends on dust shortwave absorption. Dust reduces the diurnal variation of precipitation regardless of its absorptivity, but more reduction is associated with stronger absorbing dust.

  18. Evaluation of mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon simulation in ECHAM5: identification of possible source of bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abhik, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Goswami, B. N.

    2014-07-01

    The performance of ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is evaluated to simulate the seasonal mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The model is simulated at two different vertical resolutions, with 19 and 31 levels (L19 and L31, respectively), using observed monthly mean sea surface temperature and compared with the observation. The analyses examine the biases present in the internal dynamics of the model in simulating the mean monsoon and the evolution of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) and attempts to unveil the reason behind them. The model reasonably simulates the seasonal mean-state of the atmosphere during ISM. However, some notable discrepancies are found in the simulated summer mean moisture and rainfall distribution. Both the vertical resolutions, overestimate the seasonal mean precipitation over the oceanic regions, but underestimate the precipitation over the Indian landmass. The performance of the model improves with the increment of the vertical resolution. The AGCM reasonably simulates some salient features of BSISO, but fails to show the eastward propagation of the convection across the Maritime Continent in L19 simulation. The propagation across the Maritime Continent and tilted rainband structure improve as one moves from L19 to L31. The model unlikely shows prominent westward propagation that originates over the tropical western Pacific region. L31 also produces some of the observed characteristics of the northward propagating BSISOs. However, the northward propagating convection becomes stationary in phase 5-7. The simulation of shallow diabatic heating structure and the heavy rainfall activity over the Bay of Bengal indicate the abundance of the premature convection-generated precipitation events in the model. It is found that the moist physics is responsible for the poor simulation of the northward propagating convection anomalies.

  19. Mid- to Late Holocene Indian Ocean Monsoon variability recorded in four speleothems from Socotra Island, Yemen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Rampelbergh, M.; Fleitmann, D.; Verheyden, S.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R.; De Vleeschouwer, D.; Claeys, P. F.; Burns, S. J.; Matter, A.; Keppens, E.

    2012-12-01

    Since the Holocene, the summer position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is gradually moving south due to the diminishing boreal summer insolation (Fleitmann et al., 2007). Understanding this behavior for the Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) and its northeast and southwest subsystems is of major importance, especially since further drying is predicted (Fleitmann et al., 2007). To investigate how precipitation from the northeast IOM subsystem is evolving since the mid Holocene, we sampled four stalagmites on Socotra, an island in the northern Indian Ocean. On Socotra, rain is delivered at the start of the southwest IOM in May-June and at the start of the northeast IOM from September to December. The Haggeher Mountains, reaching up to 3000m altitude in the middle of the island, act as a barrier forcing precipitation to fall preferentially on the windward side of the mountain range. Consequently, rain delivered by northeast winds at the start of the northeast IOM, falls on the eastern side of the island, where the studied caves are located. δ18O and δ13C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca signals in the stalagmites are interpreted as indicators of wetter or drier conditions created by the northeast IOM. The stalagmite records suggest a long-term weakening of the northeast IOM since 7 ka confirming a link between the Holocene decreasing boreal summer insolation and the diminishing rainfall of the IOM. A similar δ18O record to that of eastern Socotra occurs in Northern Oman stalagmites, after 6.2 ka (Fleitmann et al., 2007). At this time, the summer ITCZ moved south of Northern Oman making precipitation from northeast winds the only moisture source available. A drying around 6 ka is also seen in sedimentary records from the Arabian Peninsula (Lezine et al., 2010; Parker et al., 2006), which nowadays are located outside the migration pathway of the ITCZ. Records on the Arabian Peninsula that today are still within the ITCZ migration belt, and thus receive rain by both the

  20. Simple metrics for representing East Asian winter monsoon variability: Urals blocking and western Pacific teleconnection patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheung, Hoffman H. N.; Zhou, Wen

    2016-06-01

    Instead of conventional East Asian winter monsoon indices (EAWMIs), we simply use two large-scale teleconnection patterns to represent long-term variations in the EAWM. First, the Urals blocking pattern index (UBI) is closely related to cold air advection from the high latitudes towards western Siberia, such that it shows an implicit linkage with the Siberian high intensity and the surface air temperature (SAT) variations north of 40°N in the EAWM region. Second, the well-known western Pacific teleconnection index (WPI) is connected with the meridional displacement of the East Asian jet stream and the East Asian trough. This is strongly related to the SAT variations in the coastal area south of 40°N in the EAWM region. The temperature variation in the EAWM region is also represented by the two dominant temperature modes, which are called the northern temperature mode (NTM) and the southern temperature mode (STM). Compared to 19 existing EAWMIs and other well-known teleconnection patterns, the UBI shows the strongest correlation with the NTM, while the WPI shows an equally strong correlation with the STM as four EAWMIs. The UBI-NTM and WPI-STM relationships are robust when the correlation analysis is repeated by (1) the 31-year running correlation and (2) the 8-year high-pass and low-pass filter. Hence, these results are useful for analyzing the large-scale teleconnections of the EAWM and for evaluating this issue in climate models. In particular, more studies should focus on the teleconnection patterns over extratropical Eurasia.

  1. Composition of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone: Climatology and variability from 10 years of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santee, Michelle; Manney, Gloria; Livesey, Nathaniel; Neu, Jessica; Schwartz, Michael; Read, William

    2016-04-01

    Satellite measurements are invaluable for investigating the composition of the upper troposphere / lower stratosphere (UTLS) in the region of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone, which has been sparsely sampled by other means. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), launched as part of NASA's Aura mission in July 2004, makes simultaneous co-located measurements of trace gases and cloud ice water content (IWC, a proxy for deep convection) in the UTLS on a daily basis. Here we exploit the dense spatial and temporal coverage, long-term data record, and extensive measurement suite of Aura MLS to characterize the climatological composition of the ASM anticyclone and quantify its considerable spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability. We relate the observed trace gas behavior to various meteorological quantities, such as the size and strength of the ASM anticyclone, the extent and intensity of deep convection, and variations in the tropopause and the upper tropospheric jets in that region. Multiple species of both tropospheric and stratospheric origin are examined to help assess whether the observed variability arises from variations in transport processes or changes in the strength or location of surface emissions.

  2. South Asian climate change at the end of urban Harappan (Indus valley) civilization and mechanisms of Holocene monsoon variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staubwasser, M.; Sirocko, F.; Erlenkeuser, H.; Grootes, P. M.; Segl, M.

    2003-04-01

    Planktonic oxygen isotope ratios from the well-dated laminated sediment core 63KA off the river Indus delta are presented. The record reveals significant climate changes in the south Asian monsoon system throughout the Holocene. The most prominent event of the early-mid Holocene occurred after 8.4 ka BP and is within dating error of the GISP/GRIP event centered at 8.2 ka BP. The late Holocene is generally more variable and the largest change of the entire Holocene occurred at 4.2 ka BP. This event is concordant with the end of urban Harappan civilization in the Indus valley. Opposing isotopic trends across the northern Arabian Sea surface indicate a reduction in Indus river discharge at that time. Consequently, sustained drought may have initiated the archaeologically recorded interval of southeastward habitat tracking within the Harappan cultural domain. The hemispheric significance of the 4.2 ka BP event is evident from concordant climate change in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. The remainder of the late Holocene shows drought cycles of approximately 700 years that are coherent with the evolution of cosmogenic radiocarbon production rates in the atmosphere. This suggests that solar variability is one fundamental cause behind late Holocene rainfall changes over south Asia.

  3. Cloud properties during active and break spells of the West African summer monsoon from CloudSat-CALIPSO measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Efon, E.; Lenouo, A.; Monkam, D.; Manatsa, D.

    2016-07-01

    High resolution of daily rainfall dataset from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) was used to identify active and break cloud formation periods. The clouds were characterized based on CloudSat-CALIPSO satellite images over West Africa during the summer monsoon during the period 2006-2010. The active and break periods are defined as the periods during the peak monsoon months of June to August when the normalized anomaly of rainfall over the monsoon core zone is greater than 0.9 or less than -0.9 respectively, provided the criteria is satisfied for at least three consecutive days. It is found that about 90% of the break period and 66.7% of the active spells lasted 3-4 days. Active spells lasting duration of about a week were observed while no break spell had such a long span. Cloud macrophysical (cloud base height (CBH), cloud top height (CTH) and cloud geometric depth (∆H), microphysical (cloud liquid water content, (LWC), liquid number concentration (LNC), liquid effective radius, ice water content (IWC), ice number concentration (INC) and ice effective radius) and radiative (heating rate properties) over South Central West Africa (5-15°N; 15°W-10°E) during the active and break spells were also analyzed. High-level clouds are more predominant during the break periods compared to the active periods. Active spells have lower INC compared to the break spells. Liquid water clouds are observed to have more radiative forcing during the active than break periods while ice phase clouds bring more cooling effect during the break spells compared to the active spells.

  4. On the Origin of Monsoon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    It is a long-held fundamental belief that the basic cause of a monsoon is land-sea thermal contrast on the continental scale. Through general circulation model experiments we demonstrate that this belief should be changed. The Asian and Australian summer monsoon circulations are largely intact in an experiment in which Asia, maritime continent, and Australia are replaced by ocean. It is also shown that the change resulting from such replacement is in general due more to the removal of topography than to the removal of land-sea contrast. Therefore, land-sea contrast plays only a minor modifying role in Asian and Australian summer monsoons. This also happens to the Central American summer monsoon. However, the same thing cannot be said of the African and South American summer monsoons. In Asian and Australian winter monsoons land-sea contrast also plays only a minor role. Our interpretation for the origin of monsoon is that the summer monsoon is the result of ITCZ's (intertropical convergence zones) peak being substantially (more than 10 degrees) away from the equator. The origin of the ITCZ has been previously interpreted by Chao. The circulation around thus located ITCZ, previously interpreted by Chao and Chen through the modified Gill solution and briefly described in this paper, explains the monsoon circulation. The longitudinal location of the ITCZs is determined by the distribution of surface conditions. ITCZ's favor locations of higher SST as in western Pacific and Indian Ocean, or tropical landmass, due to land-sea contrast, as in tropical Africa and South America. Thus, the role of landmass in the origin of monsoon can be replaced by ocean of sufficiently high SST. Furthermore, the ITCZ circulation extends into the tropics in the other hemisphere to give rise to the winter monsoon circulation there. Also through the equivalence of land-sea contrast and higher SST, it is argued that the basic monsoon onset mechanism proposed by Chao is valid for all monsoons.

  5. Biogeochemical variability in the equatorial Indian Ocean during the monsoon transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strutton, P. G.; Coles, V. J.; Hood, R. R.; Matear, R. J.; McPhaden, M. J.; Phillips, H. E.

    2014-04-01

    In this paper we examine time-series measurements of near-surface chlorophyll concentration from a mooring that was deployed at 80.5° E on the equator in the Indian Ocean in 2010. These data reveal at least six striking spikes in chlorophyll in October through December, with approximately 2 week periodicity, that coincide with the development of the fall Wyrtki jets during the transition between the summer and winter monsoons. Concurrent meteorological and in situ physical measurements from the mooring reveal that the chlorophyll pulses are associated with intensification of eastward winds at the surface and eastward currents in the mixed layer. These observations are inconsistent with upwelling dynamics as occurs in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, since eastward winds that force Wyrtki jet intensification should drive downwelling. The chlorophyll spikes could be explained by two alternative mechanisms: (1) turbulent entrainment of nutrients and/or chlorophyll from across the base of the mixed layer by wind stirring or Wyrtki jet-induced shear instability; or (2) enhanced horizontal advection of high chlorophyll concentrations into the convergent equatorial zone. The first mechanism is supported by the phasing and amplitude of the relationship between wind stress and chlorophyll, which suggests that the chlorophyll spikes are the result of turbulent entrainment driven by synoptic zonal wind events. The second mechanism is supported by satellite chlorophyll observations that reveal a clear connection between the increased chlorophyll concentrations at the mooring location and larger-scale topographic wake effects from the Chagos-Lacadive Ridge upstream. The biweekly periodicity of the chlorophyll spikes appears to be related to the presence of mixed Rossby-gravity waves, also known as Yanai waves, which can be seen throughout the time-series as a biweekly periodicity in the meridional velocities with upward phase propagation. Consistent with hypothesis 2, eastward

  6. Variability in ozone and its precursor gases over the Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallik, Chinmay; Lal, Shyam; Venkataramani, Sethuram; Naja, Manish; Ojha, Narendra

    2013-04-01

    O3 and precursor gases were measured during a ship campaign over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during 28 October -17 November, 2010. The measurements revealed the large spatial heterogeneity in trace gas levels over the BoB during post-monsoon months. The heterogeneity was attributed to unique transport patterns over north and south BoB during this period. Four distinct types of air-masses influenced by heavy pollution from nearby source regions (49% time over North-West Myanmar, East Bangladesh and North-East India), mixed type (25% time over Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam and 75% time over East BoB), affected by long-range transport of pollutants (59% time over continental South Myanmar, Vietnam and Hong-Kong region of China) and pristine marine (99% time over oceanic regions) were identified. Among these, the continental air masses were fresher compared to marine air masses. High O3 and CO levels were observed in air masses coming from South-East Asia. O3, C4H10 and alkenes were highest in air masses arriving from eastern IGP, Bangladesh, Myanmar via the North BoB. The C2H2 to CO slope of 0.004 and C3H8 to CO slope of 0.003 indicated predominance of biofuel/biomass burning in air masses from South-East Asia. The i-C4H10 to n- C4H10 value of 0.62 indicated contributions of urban/industrial sources in air masses arriving from Bangladesh, India and North-West Myanmar. 'Potential Source Contribution Function' analysis indicated fire impacted South of Myanmar and Thailand regions as potential contributors to high CO levels above 260 ppbv measured on 14 November. Observed enhancements in surface CO during 2-3 November were attributed to the faster transport of continental pollutants associated with cyclonic winds. The O3 e-fold time of 2.3 days indicated the higher rate of O3 destruction over the BoB due to higher precursor levels. Principle component analysis indicated that transport from continental source regions played a major role in determining the chemical composition

  7. Mid- to Late Holocene Indian Ocean Monsoon variability recorded in four speleothems from Socotra Island, Yemen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Rampelbergh, Maite; Fleitmann, Dominik; Verheyden, Sophie; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, Lawrence; Burns, Stephen; Matter, Albert; Claeys, Philippe; Keppens, Eddy

    2013-04-01

    Since the Mid-Holocene, the summer position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is gradually moving south due to the diminishing boreal summer insolation (Wanner et al., 2006). Understanding this behavior for the Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) and its northeast and southwest subsystems is of major importance, especially since further drying is predicted (Fleitmann et al., 2007). To investigate how precipitation from the northeast IOM subsystem is evolving since the mid Holocene, we sampled four stalagmites on Socotra, an island in the northern Indian Ocean. On Socotra, rain is delivered at the start of the southwest IOM in May-June and at the start of the northeast IOM from September to December. The Haggeher Mountains, reaching up to 3000m altitude in the middle of the island, act as a barrier forcing rain delivered by northeast winds to fall on the eastern side of the island, where the studied caves are located. δ18O and δ13C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca signals in the stalagmites are interpreted as indicators of wetter or drier conditions created by the northeast IOM. The stalagmite records suggest a weakening of the northeast precipitation between 6.0 and 3.8 ka. After 3.8 ka precipitation intensities remain constant with two superimposed drier periods, between 0 and 0.6 ka and from 2.2 to 3.8 ka. A similar δ18O record to that of eastern Socotra occurs in Northern Oman stalagmites after 6.2 ka. At this time, the summer ITCZ moved south of Northern Oman making precipitation from northeast winds the only moisture source available. A drying around 6 ka is also seen in sedimentary records from the Arabian Peninsula (Lezine et al., 2010; Parker et al., 2006), which nowadays are located outside the migration pathway of the ITCZ. Records on the Arabian Peninsula that today are still within the ITCZ migration belt, and thus receive rain by both the northeast as the southwest IOM, display a gradual drying after the wet Holocene optimum at 8.0 ka. In contrast to the

  8. Past variability of the North American Monsoon: ultrahigh resolution records from the lower Gulf of California for the last 6 Ka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herguera, J. C.; Nava Fernandez, C.; Bernal, G.; Paull, C. K.

    2015-12-01

    The North American Monsoon regime results from an interplay between the ocean, atmosphere and continental topography though there is an ongoing debate as to the relative importance of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the NE tropical Pacific warm water lens region, solar radiation variability, land snow cover and soil moisture over the Western North America mountain ranges and the strength and spatial patterns of the dominant winds. The links between these factors and the monsoonal variability appear to be of variable importance during the short instrumental record, and hampers any prediction on the future evolution of this climatic regime in a warming climate. The terrigenous component in very-high sedimentation rate sediments on the margins of the Gulf of California links monsoonal precipitation patterns on land with the varying importance of the lithogenic component in these margin sediments. Here we use the elemental composition of Si and Fe in these margin sediments, as a proxy for the lithogenic component in a collection of box and kasten cores from the eastern and western margins of the lower Gulf of California. This region shows a strong tropical influence during the summer, as part of the northernmost extension of the eastern tropical Pacific warm water lens region. A period when the southwestern winds bring moist air masses inland enhancing the monsoonal rains on the eastern reaches of Sierra Madre Occidental. High resolution XRF results allow us to explore the relationships between different elemental ratios in these sediments and the available instrumental record and several paleo-reconstructions to evaluate the possible links between external forcings and internal feedback effects, to help to understand the controls on the evolution of the monsoonal regime in this region.

  9. Tohono O'odham Monsoon Climatology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ackerman, G.

    2006-12-01

    The North American monsoon is a summertime weather phenomenon that develops over the southwestern North America. For thousands of years the Tohono O'odham people of this area have depended on the associated rainy season (Jukiabig Masad) to grow traditional crops using runoff agriculture. Today, the high incidence of Type II diabetes among native people has prompted many to return to their traditional agricultural diets. Local monsoon onset dates and the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset were used to develop a 24-year Tohono O'odham Nation (TON) monsoon and pre-monsoon climatology that can be used as a tool for planning runoff agriculture. Using monsoon composite datasets, temporal and spatial correlations between antecedent period meteorological variables, monsoon onset dates and total monsoon precipitation were examined to identify variables that could be useful in predicting the onset and intensity of the monsoon. The results suggest additional research is needed to identify variables related to monsoon onset and intensity.

  10. Late Quaternary change in the North American (Mexican) Monsoon: variability in terrestrial and marine records and possible mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metcalfe, S. E.; Barron, J. A.; Roy, P.; Davies, S.

    2013-05-01

    The Late Quaternary history of the North American (or Mexican) monsoon (NAM) remains poorly understood, with continuing debates about the relative importance of insolation forcing, the role of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), the expression of warm (D-O) and cold (H) events in the North Atlantic and the influence of the Pacific. To date, more information has been available from the southern and northern margins of the NAM region than from its tropical and subtropical core. This is significant because to the south of the NAM region, the direct effect of ITCZ location is likely to be stronger and any potential influence of the LIS weaker, and to the north, there is an important change in present day precipitation seasonality (from summer to winter), an opposite response to forcings such as ENSO/PDO and AMO and probably a stronger influence of the LIS. As a result, the interpretation of speleothem records from New Mexico (e.g. Asmerom et al., 2010) and Arizona (e.g. Wagner et al., 2010), in the southwestern USA and marine records such as Cariaco (Peterson and Haug, 2006) and lake records such as Peten Iztá (Hodell et al., 2008) may not be applicable to the tropical NAM core. Here we present results from two lacustrine sequences in Mexico (Sayula 20oN; Babicora 29oN) and a marine core record from the central part of the Gulf of California (27oN) all extending back at least through MIS3 (ca. 60 kyr BP). Although lacking the chronological precision of the speleothem sequences, these multiproxy records preserve evidence of centennial and millennial scale variability. MIS3 is marked by generally wetter conditions in the lake basins and warmer SSTs in the marine record, particularly during D/O events, which can be attributed to a stronger monsoon as well northward displacement of the ITCZ. This contrasts with the standard interpretation of the speleothem sequences where D/O events are dry. In contrast, H events are usually drier/cooler (weaker NAM, reduced summer

  11. Precession-driven monsoon variability at the Permian-Triassic boundary — Implications for anoxia and the mass extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winguth, Arne; Winguth, Cornelia

    2013-06-01

    By the end of the Late Permian, most continents had collided to form the supercontinent of Pangea. The associated climatic changes at the Permian-Triassic boundary coincided with the most severe mass extinction in the Phanerozoic. One extinction hypothesis favors a climatic response to an increase in large-scale volcanism resulting in ocean stagnation and widespread anoxia with fatal consequences for marine and land organisms. Recent interpretations of geochemical data suggest that orbitally-driven periodic upwelling of toxic hydrogen-sulfide rich water masses contributed to the extinction of species. In this paper, we use the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) in order to explore the effect of eccentricity-modulated changes of the precession on the strength of Pangean megamonsoons and their impact on productivity and oxygen distribution. The climate model simulates high variability in monsoonal precipitation, trade winds and equatorial upwelling in response to precessional extremes, leading to remarkable fluctuations in the export of carbon from the euphotic zone and hence reduction in dissolved oxygen concentrations in subsurface layers. These findings are in general agreement with increased primary productivity, intensified euxinia within the oxygen-minimum zone, and decimation of the radiolarian zooplankton community as inferred from Japanese marine sections. Strong changes in river run-off linked to precipitation oscillations possibly led to a high variability in the nutrient supply to the Tethys Ocean, thus affecting regional productivity and oxygen distribution. The model results suggest that orbital variability in the sedimentary record and the associated extinction of species are related rather to periodic anoxia in near surface-to-intermediate depth than to widespread anoxic events in the Panthalassic deep-sea.

  12. Influences of Social and Style Variables on Adult Usage of African American English Features

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Craig, Holly K.; Grogger, Jeffrey T.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: In this study, the authors examined the influences of selected social (gender, employment status, educational achievement level) and style variables (race of examiner, interview topic) on the production of African American English (AAE) by adults. Method: Participants were 50 African American men and women, ages 20-30 years. The authors…

  13. Intraseasonal Variability of the Summer Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean as Revealed by the BOBMEX and ARMEX Field Programs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, P. Sanjeeva; Sikka, D. R.

    2005-08-01

    During the summer monsoon season over India a range of intraseasonal modulations of the monsoon rains occur due to genesis of weather disturbances over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the east Arabian Sea. The amplitudes of the fluctuations in the surface state of the ocean (sea-surface temperature and salinity) and atmosphere are quite large due to these monsoonal modulations on the intraseasonal scale as shown by the data collected during the field programs under Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) and Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiments (ARMEX). The focus of BOBMEX was to understand the role of ocean-atmospheric processes in organizing convection over the BOB on intra-seasonal scale. ARMEX-I was aimed at understanding the coupled processes in the development of deep convection off the West Coast of India. ARMEX-II was focused on the formation of the mini-warm pool across the southeast Arabian Sea in April-May and its role in the abrupt onset of the monsoon along the Southwest Coast of India and its further progress along the West Coast of India. The paper attempts to integrate the results of the observational studies and brings out an important finding that atmospheric instability is prominently responsible for convective organization whereas the upper ocean parameters regulate the episodes of the intraseasonal oscillations.

  14. AMS 14 C dating controlled records of monsoon and Indonesian throughflow variability from the eastern Indian Ocean of the past 32,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Z. Y.; Chen, M. T.; Shi, X.; Liu, S.; Wang, H.

    2015-12-01

    Zi-Ye Li a, Min-Te Chen b, Hou-Jie Wang a, Sheng-Fa Liu c, Xue-Fa Shi ca College of Marine Geosciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, P.R. Chinab Institute of Applied Geosciences, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Taiwan 20224, ROCc First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, Qingdao 266100, P.R. China Indonesian throughflow (ITF) is one of the most important currents responsible for transporting heat and moisture from the western Pacific to the Indian Oceans. The ITF is also well-known as effectively in modulating the global climate change with the interactions among ENSO and Asian monsoons. Here we present an AMS 14C dating controlled sea surface temperature (SST) record from core SO184-10043 (07°18.57'S, 105°03.53'E), which was retrieved from 2171m water depth at a north-south depression located at the southeastern offshore area of Sumatera in the eastern Indian Ocean. Based on our high-resolution SST using Mg/Ca analyses based on planktonic foraminifera shells of Globigerinoides ruber and alkenone index, U k'37-SST, oxygen isotope stratigraphy, and AMC 14C age-controls, our records show that, during the past 32,000 years, the SSTs were decreased which imply weaker ITF during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 and 3. The weaker UTF may respond to strengthened northeast monsoon during the boreal winter. During 21 to 15ka, the southeast monsoon had been stronger and the northeast monsoon was relatively weaker. During 15 to 8ka, rapid sea level rising may allow the opening of the gateways in the Makassar Strait and Lombok Strait that may have further strengthened the ITF. During the early Holocene, the northeast and southeast monsoons seem to be both strengthened. We will discuss the implications of the hydrographic variability and their age uncertainties in this paper during the meeting.

  15. The transfer of seasonal isotopic variability between precipitation and drip water at eight caves in the monsoon regions of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duan, Wuhui; Ruan, Jiaoyang; Luo, Weijun; Li, Tingyong; Tian, Lijun; Zeng, Guangneng; Zhang, Dezhong; Bai, Yijun; Li, Jilong; Tao, Tao; Zhang, Pingzhong; Baker, Andy; Tan, Ming

    2016-06-01

    This study presents new stable isotope data for precipitation (δ18Op) and drip water (δ18Od) from eight cave sites in the monsoon regions of China (MRC), with monthly to bi-monthly sampling intervals from May-2011 to April-2014, to investigate the regional-scale climate forcing on δ18Op and how the isotopic signals are transmitted to various drip sites. The monthly δ18Op values show negative correlation with surface air temperature at all the cave sites except Shihua Cave, which is opposite to that expected from the temperature effect. In addition, although the monthly δ18Op values are negatively correlated with precipitation at all the cave sites, only three sites are significant at the 95% level. These indicate that, due to the various vapor sources, a large portion of variability in δ18Op in the MRC cannot be explained simply by either temperature or precipitation alone. All the thirty-four drip sites are classified into three types based on the δ18Od variability. About 82% of them are static drips with little discernable variation in δ18Od through the whole study period, but the drip rates of these drips are not necessary constant. Their discharge modes are site-specific and the oxygen isotopic composition of the stalagmites growing from them may record the average of multi-year climatic signals, which are modulated by the seasonality of recharge and potential effects of evaporation, and in some cases infiltration from large rainfall events. About 12% of the thirty-four drip sites are seasonal drips, although the amplitude of δ18Od is narrower than that of δ18Op, the monthly response of δ18Od to coeval precipitation is not completely damped, and some of them follow the seasonal trend of δ18Op very well. These drips may be mainly recharged by present-day precipitation, mixing with some stored water. Thus, the stalagmites growing under them may record portions of the seasonal climatic signals embedded in δ18Op. About 6% of the thirty-four drip sites

  16. Controls on oxygen isotope variability in precipitation and drip water at eight caves in the monsoon regions of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duan, Wuhui; Ruan, Jiaoyang; Luo, Weijun; Li, Tingyong; Tian, Lijun; Zeng, Guangneng; Zhang, Dezhong; Bai, Yijun; Li, Jilong; Tao, Tao; Zhang, Pingzhong; Tan, Ming

    2015-04-01

    Cave monitoring is important to fully understand the climatic significance of stalagmite δ18O records. Most previous studies focus on one cave, or several caves in one area. A large regional-scale investigation on the isotopic composition of precipitation and drip water is scarce. To investigate the regional-scale climate forcing on the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation in the monsoon regions of China (MRC) and how the isotopic signals are transmitted to various drip sites, a three-year-long (2011-2014) on-site rainfall and drip water monitoring program has been carried out with approximately monthly sampling at 37 drip sites in eight caves in the MRC. Neither rainfall amount nor air temperature are the predominant controls on the oxygen isotopic composition of monthly precipitation. The rain in the wet season (May to October), with relatively low δ18O values, is sourced from tropical air masses, whereas the rainfall in the dry season (November to April), with relatively high δ18O values, is mostly sourced from continental air masses. Additionally, the weighted summer rainwater δ18O values decrease from coastal southwest China to inland northeast China, which suggests that the moisture of monsoon rainfall in China originates mainly from Indian Ocean, and transports to the north along the southwest-northeast path. 28 of the 37 drip sites are constant drips with little discernable variation in drip water δ18O through the whole study period. For most of the constant drips, the mean value of each drip water δ18O is nearly identical to or slightly higher than the three-year weighted mean value of the corresponding local rainwater δ18O, indicating these drips may be mainly recharged by none-evaporated or slightly evaporated, well-mixed older water stored in the vadose zone. 7 of all the 37 drip sites are seasonal drips, for which, although the amplitude of drip water δ18O is narrower than that of rainfall, the monthly response of drip water δ18O to

  17. Forced and Free Intra-Seasonal Variability Over the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by 10 AGCMs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Man Li C.; Kang, In-Sik; Waliser, Duane; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This study examines intra-seasonal (20-70 day) variability in the South Asian monsoon region during 1997/98 in ensembles of 10 simulations with 10 different atmospheric general circulation models. The 10 ensemble members for each model are forced with the same observed weekly sea surface temperature (SST) but differ from each other in that they are started from different initial atmospheric conditions. The results show considerable differences between the models in the simulated 20-70 day variability, ranging from much weaker to much stronger than the observed. A key result is that the models do produce, to varying degrees, a response to the imposed weekly SST. The forced variability tends to be largest in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans where, for some models, it accounts for more than 1/4 of the 20-70 day intra-seasonal variability in the upper level velocity potential during these two years. A case study of a strong observed MJO (intraseasonal oscillation) event shows that the models produce an ensemble mean eastward propagating signal in the tropical precipitation field over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, similar to that found in the observations. The associated forced 200 mb velocity potential anomalies are strongly phase locked with the precipitation anomalies, propagating slowly to the east (about 5 m/s) with a local zonal wave number two pattern that is generally consistent with the developing observed MJO. The simulated and observed events are, however, approximately in quadrature, with the simulated response 2 leading by 5-10 days. The phase lag occurs because, in the observations, the positive SST anomalies develop upstream of the main convective center in the subsidence region of the MJO, while in the simulations, the forced component is in phase with the SST. For all the models examined here, the intraseasonal variability is dominated by the free (intra-ensemble) component. The results of our case study show that the free variability has a

  18. Probabilistic versus deterministic skill in predicting the western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon variability with multimodel ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Dejian; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Xie, Qian; Zhang, Yaocun; Ren, Xuejuan; Tang, Youmin

    2016-02-01

    Based on historical forecasts of three quasi-operational multimodel ensemble (MME) systems, this study assesses the superiority of coupled MME over contributing single-model ensembles (SMEs) and over uncoupled atmospheric MME in predicting the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon variability. The probabilistic and deterministic forecast skills are measured by Brier skill score (BSS) and anomaly correlation (AC), respectively. A forecast-format-dependent MME superiority over SMEs is found. The probabilistic forecast skill of the MME is always significantly better than that of each SME, while the deterministic forecast skill of the MME can be lower than that of some SMEs. The MME superiority arises from both the model diversity and the ensemble size increase in the tropics, and primarily from the ensemble size increase in the subtropics. The BSS is composed of reliability and resolution, two attributes characterizing probabilistic forecast skill. The probabilistic skill increase of the MME is dominated by the dramatic improvement in reliability, while resolution is not always improved, similar to AC. A monotonic resolution-AC relationship is further found and qualitatively explained, whereas little relationship can be identified between reliability and AC. It is argued that the MME's success in improving the reliability arises from an effective reduction of the overconfidence in forecast distributions. Moreover, it is examined that the seasonal predictions with coupled MME are more skillful than those with the uncoupled atmospheric MME forced by persisting sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, since the coupled MME has better predicted the SST anomaly evolution in three key regions.

  19. Global Monsoon Dynamics and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhisheng, An; Guoxiong, Wu; Jianping, Li; Youbin, Sun; Yimin, Liu; Weijian, Zhou; Yanjun, Cai; Anmin, Duan; Li, Li; Jiangyu, Mao; Hai, Cheng; Zhengguo, Shi; Liangcheng, Tan; Hong, Yan; Hong, Ao; Hong, Chang; Juan, Feng

    2015-05-01

    This article provides a comprehensive review of the global monsoon that encompasses findings from studies of both modern monsoons and paleomonsoons. We introduce a definition for the global monsoon that incorporates its three-dimensional distribution and ultimate causes, emphasizing the direct drive of seasonal pressure system changes on monsoon circulation and depicting the intensity in terms of both circulation and precipitation. We explore the global monsoon climate changes across a wide range of timescales from tectonic to intraseasonal. Common features of the global monsoon are global homogeneity, regional diversity, seasonality, quasi-periodicity, irregularity, instability, and asynchroneity. We emphasize the importance of solar insolation, Earth orbital parameters, underlying surface properties, and land-air-sea interactions for global monsoon dynamics. We discuss the primary driving force of monsoon variability on each timescale and the relationships among dynamics on multiple timescales. Natural processes and anthropogenic impacts are of great significance to the understanding of future global monsoon behavior.

  20. Seasonal variability and trends in coastal upwelling across the Northwest African coastline, 1981-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cropper, T. E.; Hanna, E.; Bigg, G. R.

    2013-12-01

    The evolution of coastal upwelling systems under global warming is of huge biological, climatological and socio-economic importance. It was hypothesized in the early 1990's that upwelling might increase as a result of stronger land-ocean pressure gradients, however published results since then have conflicted as to whether coastal upwelling intensity has increased across the NW African coastline. Here, we present seasonal upwelling estimates for NW Africa (11-35°N) from 1981-2012, focusing mainly on changes during summer (JJA). Seasonal coastal upwelling indices are derived or estimated from several near-surface wind, sea-surface temperature (SST), sea-surface height (SSH), geometric vertical velocity and near-surface horizontal current datasets. For the wind-stress upwelling indices we use observational data (ICOADS), forecast model data (PFEL) and five atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, NCEP-DOE II, 20th Century Reanalysis, MERRA and CFSR). For the SST indices we use the HadISST, Reynolds OISST and ICOADS datasets and for SSH we use satellite altimetry data from AVISO. Ocean reanalysis products (ORS4A, SODA 2.1.6 and GODAS) are used for ocean motion data. The numerous indices generally correlate well spatially, all reflecting a similar pattern induced by the trade wind climatology A statistically significant upwelling increase above 21°N is found in several indices, with a corresponding decrease in upwelling intensity below 20°N as well. This supports the upwelling intensification hypothesis as at approximately 20°N the summer trade winds are displaced by onshore monsoonal winds, which favour downwelling. However, these trend directions aren't ubiquitous across all the datasets, with most of the reanalysis wind indices suggesting no significant trend direction and sea-level height from altimetry showing no signs of lowering at coastal gridpoints (which would potentially indicate an upwelling increase). We attempt to validate if upwelling trends are

  1. Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Identification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, F. R.; Funk, C.

    2014-01-01

    Hidden Markov models can be used to investigate structure of subseasonal variability. East African short rain variability has connections to large-scale tropical variability. MJO - Intraseasonal variations connected with appearance of "wet" and "dry" states. ENSO/IOZM SST and circulation anomalies are apparent during years of anomalous residence time in the subseasonal "wet" state. Similar results found in previous studies, but we can interpret this with respect to variations of subseasonal wet and dry modes. Reveal underlying connections between MJO/IOZM/ENSO with respect to East African rainfall.

  2. The Monsoon as a Self-regulating Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, P. J.; Clark, C.; Cherikova, G.; Fasullo, J.; Han, W.; Loschnigg, J.; Sahami, K.

    INTRODUCTION REGULATION OF THE MONSOON ANNUAL CYCLE The Climatological Annual Cycle Processes Determining the Annual Cycle of the Monsoon Role of Ocean Dynamics in the Annual Heat Balance of the Indian - Ocean Regulation of the Annual Cycle of the Monsoon: an Ocean-Atmosphere - Feedback System INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE MONSOON Modes of Interannual Variability in the Monsoon Interannual Modes in Ocean Heat Transport Interannual Regulation of the Monsoon GENERAL THEORY OF REGULATION OF THE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERIC MONSOON - SYSTEM CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES

  3. Decadal- to biennial scale variability of planktic foraminifera in the northeastern Arabian Sea during the last two millennia: evidence for winter monsoon forcing mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munz, Philipp; Lückge, Andreas; Siccha, Michael; Kucera, Michal; Schulz, Hartmut

    2015-04-01

    The Asian monsoon system is controlling the hydrologic cycle, and thus the agricultural and economic prosperity of the worlds most densely populated region. Strong and moisture-laden winds from the southwest induce upwelling and significant productivity in the western Arabian Sea during boreal summer. During boreal winter, weaker dry and cold surface winds from the northeast nourish ocean productivity mainly in the northeastern Arabian Sea. Instrumental records spanning the last century are too short to understand how the monsoon system reacts to external forcing mechanisms and to accurately determine its natural variability. Compared to the summer monsoon component, the dynamics of the winter monsoon are virtually unknown, due to the lack of adequate archives that are affected only by winter conditions. Here we present a decadal- to biennial-scale resolution record of past winter monsoon variability over the last two millennia, based on census counts of planktic foraminifera from two laminated sediment cores collected offshore Pakistan. One shorter box core (SO90-39KG) spans the last 250 years with an average ~2-year resolution, whereas the longer piston core (SO130-275KL) spans the last 2,100 years with a 10-year resolution. We use Globigerina falconensis as a faunal indicator for winter conditions, a species that is most abundant during winter in the NE Arabian Sea (Peeters and Brummer, 2002; Schulz et al., 2002). Our results show that during the past 2,100 years G. falconensis varied with significant periodicities centered on ˜ 60, ˜ 53, ˜ 40, ˜ 34 and ˜ 29 years per cycle. Some of these periods closely match cycles that are known from proxy records of solar irradiance, suggesting a solar forcing on winter monsoon variability. During the past 250 years G. falconensis varied in correlation with the (11-year) Schwabe and the (22-year) Hale solar cycles. Furthermore, a significant ˜ 7 year cyclicity could indicate a teleconnection to the El Niño Southern

  4. Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts. A Review in the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Caminade, Cyril; Biasutti, Michela; Gaetani, Marco; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry; Xue, Yongkang; Polo, Irene; Losada, Teresa; Druyan, Leonard M.; Fontaine, Bernard; Bader, Juergen; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Goddard, Lisa; Janicot, Serge; Arribas, Alberto; Lau, William; Colman, Andrew; Vellinga, M.; Rowell, David P.; Kucharski, Fred; Voldoire, Aurore

    2015-01-01

    The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface-atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.

  5. Simulation of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) in SP-CCSM4: Part I—Seasonal mean state and intraseasonal variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Yan; Stan, Cristiana

    2016-07-01

    The mean state and intraseasonal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) simulated by the Super-Parameterized Community Climate System Model version 4 (SP-CCSM4) and the conventionally parameterized CCSM4 are evaluated against observations. The SP-CCSM4 model has a better simulation of the May-June-July-August seasonal mean state of EASM than CCSM4, although it produces a dry bias over the EASM area compared to observations. The dry bias in SP-CCSM4 is associated with the erroneous northward displacement of the western North Pacific subtropical high. The SP-CCSM4 model simulates the reasonable monsoon onset and northward propagation of the monsoonal precipitation, yet the rainband marches faster and reaches to a higher latitude than in observations. The mechanisms associated with the northward propagation of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of EASM are also captured by SP-CCSM4. The cyclonic vorticity and the moisture convergence lead the convective activity, favoring the northward propagation of convection. The easterly wind shear and air-sea interaction mechanisms in the model are realistic and show contributions to the northward propagation of the ISO of the model. The SP-CCSM4 model captures many facets of the stepwise northward propagation of the precipitation belt in the EASM region, including the Mei-yu season. However, compared to the observations, in the model the onset of the Mei-yu season takes place 5 days earlier and the duration of the Mei-yu's rainy episode is shorter. The CCSM4 model has large deficiencies in simulating the intraseasonal variability of EASM.

  6. Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoon

    SciTech Connect

    Sperber, K R; Yasunari, T

    2005-12-20

    The Earth's monsoon systems are the life-blood of more than two-thirds of the world's population through the rainfall they provide to the mainly agrarian societies they influence. More than 60 experts gathered to assess the current understanding of monsoon variability and to highlight outstanding problems simulating the monsoon.

  7. Variability of the TRMM-PR total and convective and stratiform rain fractions over the Indian region during the summer monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Sikka, D. R.

    2013-07-01

    Level 3 (3A25) TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) data are used for 13 years period (1998-2010) to prepare climatology of TRMM PR derived near surface rain (Total rain) and rain fractions for the 4-months duration of Indian Summer Monsoon season (June-September) as well as for individual months. It is found that the total rain is contributed mostly (99 %) by two rain fractions i.e. stratiform and convective rain fractions for the season as well as on the monthly basis. It is also found that total rain estimates by PR are about 65 % of the gauge measured rain over continental India as well as on sub-regional basis. Inter-annual variability of TRMM-PR rain estimates for India mainland and its sub-regions as well as over the neighboring oceanic regions, in terms of coefficient of variability (CV) is discussed. The heaviest rain region over north Bay of Bengal (BoB) is found to have the lowest CV. Another sub-region of low CV lies over the eastern equatorial Indian ocean (EEIO). The CVs of total rain as well as its two major constituents are found to be higher on monthly basis compared to seasonal basis. Existence of a well known dipole between the EEIO and the north BoB is well recognized in PR data also. Significant variation in PR rainfall is found over continental India between excess and deficit monsoon seasons as well as between excess and deficit rainfall months of July and August. Examination of rainfall fractions between the BoB and Central India on year to year basis shows that compensation in rainfall fractions exists on monthly scale on both the regions. Also on the seasonal and monthly scales, compensation is observed in extreme monsoon seasons between the two regions. However, much less compensation is observed between the north BoB and EEIO belts in extreme rain months. This leads to speculation that the deficit and excess seasons over India may result from slight shift of the rainfall from Central India to the neighboring oceanic regions of north Bo

  8. South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Trend: Its Links to Indo-Pacific SST Anomalies and Moist Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prasanna, V.

    2016-06-01

    The warm (cold) phase of El Niño (La Niña) and its impact on all Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (AISMR) relationship is explored for the past 100 years. The 103-year (1901-2003) data from the twentieth century reanalysis datasets (20CR) and other major reanalysis datasets for southwest monsoon season (JJAS) is utilized to find out the simultaneous influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-AISMR relationship. Two cases such as wet, dry monsoon years associated with ENSO(+) (El Niño), ENSO(-) (La Niña) and Non-ENSO (neutral) events have been discussed in detail using observed rainfall and three-dimensional 20CR dataset. The dry and wet years associated with ENSO and Non-ENSO periods show significant differences in the spatial pattern of rainfall associated with three-dimensional atmospheric composite, the 20CR dataset has captured the anomalies quite well. During wet (dry) years, the rainfall is high (low), i.e. 10 % above (below) average from the long-term mean and this wet or dry condition occur both during ENSO and Non-ENSO phases. The Non-ENSO year dry or wet composites are also focused in detail to understand, where do the anomalous winds come from unlike in the ENSO case. The moisture transport is coherent with the changes in the spatial pattern of AISMR and large-scale feature in the 20CR dataset. Recent 50-year trend (1951-2000) is also analyzed from various available observational and reanalysis datasets to see the influence of Indo-Pacific SST and moist processes on the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trend. Apart from the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), the moisture convergence and moisture transport among India (IND), Equatorial Indian Ocean (IOC) and tropical western pacific (WNP) is also important in modifying the wet or dry cycles over India. The mutual interaction among IOC, WNP and IND in seasonal timescales is significant in modifying wet and dry cycles over the Indian region and the seasonal anomalies.

  9. North African climate variability. Part 1: Tropical thermocline coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeshanew, A.; Jury, M. R.

    2007-05-01

    Tropical ocean thermocline variability is studied using gridded data assimilated by an ocean model in the period 1950-2000. The dominant patterns and variability are identified using EOF analysis applied to E-W depth slices of sea temperatures averaged over the tropics. After removing the annual cycle, an east-west ‘see-saw’ with an interannual to decadal rhythm is the leading mode in each of the tropical basins. In the case of the leading mode in the Pacific, the thermocline oscillation forms a dipole structure, but in the (east) Atlantic and (southwest) Indian Ocean there is a single center of action. The interaction of the ocean thermocline and atmospheric Walker circulations is studied through cross-modulus analysis of wavelet-filtered EOF time scores. Our study demonstrates how tropical ocean thermocline variability contributes to zonal circulation anomalies in the atmosphere. The equatorial Pacific thermocline oscillation explains 62 and 53% of the variability of the Pacific and Atlantic zonal overturning circulations, the latter driving convective polarity between North Africa and South America. The Pacific sea-saw leads the Atlantic zonal circulation by a few months.

  10. Multidecadal variability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the Indian Ocean.

    PubMed

    Tierney, Jessica E; Smerdon, Jason E; Anchukaitis, Kevin J; Seager, Richard

    2013-01-17

    The recent decades-long decline in East African rainfall suggests that multidecadal variability is an important component of the climate of this vulnerable region. Prior work based on analysing the instrumental record implicates both Indian and Pacific ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as possible drivers of East African multidecadal climate variability, but the short length of the instrumental record precludes a full elucidation of the underlying physical mechanisms. Here we show that on timescales beyond the decadal, the Indian Ocean drives East African rainfall variability by altering the local Walker circulation, whereas the influence of the Pacific Ocean is minimal. Our results, based on proxy indicators of relative moisture balance for the past millennium paired with long control simulations from coupled climate models, reveal that moist conditions in coastal East Africa are associated with cool SSTs (and related descending circulation) in the eastern Indian Ocean and ascending circulation over East Africa. The most prominent event identified in the proxy record--a coastal pluvial from 1680 to 1765--occurred when Indo-Pacific warm pool SSTs reached their minimum values of the past millennium. Taken together, the proxy and model evidence suggests that Indian Ocean SSTs are the primary influence on East African rainfall over multidecadal and perhaps longer timescales.

  11. Multidecadal variability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the Indian Ocean.

    PubMed

    Tierney, Jessica E; Smerdon, Jason E; Anchukaitis, Kevin J; Seager, Richard

    2013-01-17

    The recent decades-long decline in East African rainfall suggests that multidecadal variability is an important component of the climate of this vulnerable region. Prior work based on analysing the instrumental record implicates both Indian and Pacific ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as possible drivers of East African multidecadal climate variability, but the short length of the instrumental record precludes a full elucidation of the underlying physical mechanisms. Here we show that on timescales beyond the decadal, the Indian Ocean drives East African rainfall variability by altering the local Walker circulation, whereas the influence of the Pacific Ocean is minimal. Our results, based on proxy indicators of relative moisture balance for the past millennium paired with long control simulations from coupled climate models, reveal that moist conditions in coastal East Africa are associated with cool SSTs (and related descending circulation) in the eastern Indian Ocean and ascending circulation over East Africa. The most prominent event identified in the proxy record--a coastal pluvial from 1680 to 1765--occurred when Indo-Pacific warm pool SSTs reached their minimum values of the past millennium. Taken together, the proxy and model evidence suggests that Indian Ocean SSTs are the primary influence on East African rainfall over multidecadal and perhaps longer timescales. PMID:23325220

  12. Mid-Holocene variability of the East Asian monsoon based on bulk organic δ13C and C/N records from the Pearl River estuary, southern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, F.; Lloyd, J. M.; Zong, Y.; Leng, M. J.; Switzer, A. D.; Yim, W. W.; Huang, G.

    2010-12-01

    Understanding the mid-Holocene dynamics of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) is integral to modelling the Holocene development of the global climate system (Webster et al., 1998). Thus the mid-Holocene EAM history was reconstructed using bulk organic carbon isotopes (δ13C), total carbon to total nitrogen (C/N) ratios and total organic carbon (TOC) from a sediment core (UV1), at a mean resolution of 10 years, from the Pearl River estuary, southern China. Sedimentary δ13C, C/N and TOC from the Pearl River estuary is a good indicator of changes in monsoonal precipitation strength (Zong et al., 2006; Yang et al., 2010), eg sediments buried during a period of high precipitation exhibit a high proportion of terrigenous sediments, and have low δ13C and high C/N, and vice versa (Yu et al., 2010). Results suggest a general decreasing trend in monsoonal precipitation from 6650-2215 cal yr BP due to the weakening insolation over northern hemisphere most likely related to the current precession circle (An, 2000). Superimposed on this trend are apparent dry-wet oscillations at centennial to millennial timescales most likely in response to solar activity. Mismatch between δ13C and results from the Dongge Cave in southern China at millennial-timescale oscillations (Wang et al., 2005), may indicate that the δ13C from the Pearl River estuary reveals changes in precipitation in a broader area than the δ18O from Dongge Cave does. Reference An Z (2000) The history and variability of the East Asian paleomonsoon climate. Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 171-187. Wang Y, Cheng H, Edwards RL, He Y, Kong X, An Z, Wu J, Kelly MJ, Dykoski CA and Li X (2005) The Holocene Asian Monsoon: Links to Solar Changes and North Atlantic Climate. Science 308: 854-857. Webster PJ, Magaña VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J and Tomas RA (1998) Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research 103(C7): 14451-14510. Yang S, Tang M, Yim WWS, Zong Y, Huang G, Switzer

  13. Mid-Holocene variability of the East Asian monsoon based on bulk organic δ13C and C/N records from the Pearl River estuary, southern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, F.; Zong, Y.; Lloyd, J. M.; Leng, M. J.; Switzer, A. D.; Yim, W. W.; Huang, G.

    2012-12-01

    Understanding the mid-Holocene dynamics of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) is integral to modelling the Holocene development of the global climate system (Webster et al., 1998). Thus the mid-Holocene EAM history was reconstructed using bulk organic carbon isotopes (δ13C), total carbon to total nitrogen (C/N) ratios and total organic carbon (TOC) from a sediment core (UV1), at a mean resolution of 7-10 years, from the Pearl River estuary, southern China. Sedimentary δ13C, C/N and TOC from the Pearl River estuary is a good indicator of changes in monsoonal precipitation strength (Zong et al., 2006; Yang et al., 2010; Yu et al., 2010), eg sediments buried during a period of high precipitation exhibit a high proportion of terrigenous sediments, and have low δ13C and high C/N, and vice versa (Yu et al., 2010). Results suggest a general decreasing trend in monsoonal precipitation from 6650 to 2215 cal yr BP because of the weakening Northern Hemisphere insolation most likely related to the current precession circle (An, 2000). Superimposed on this trend are apparent dry-wet oscillations at centennial to millennial timescales most likely in response to solar activity. Mismatch between δ13C and results from the Dongge Cave in southern China at millennial-timescale oscillations (Wang et al., 2005), may indicate that the δ13C from the Pearl River estuary reveals changes in precipitation in a broader area than the δ18O from Dongge Cave does. Reference An Z (2000) The history and variability of the East Asian paleomonsoon climate. Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 171-187. Wang Y, Cheng H, Edwards RL, He Y, Kong X, An Z, Wu J, Kelly MJ, Dykoski CA and Li X (2005) The Holocene Asian Monsoon: Links to Solar Changes and North Atlantic Climate. Science 308: 854-857. Webster PJ, Magaña VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J and Tomas RA (1998) Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research 103(C7): 14451-14510. Yang S, Tang M, Yim WWS, Zong

  14. Monsoon variability in the northeastern Arabian Sea on orbital- and millennial scale during the past 200,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lückge, Andreas; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Steinke, Stephan; Mohtadi, Mahyar; Westerhold, Thomas; Schulz, Hartmut

    2016-04-01

    The Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations and Heinrich events described in the Greenland ice cores and in North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean sediments are also expressed in the climate of the tropics, for example, as documented in Arabian Sea sediments. However, little is known about these fluctuations beyond the reach of the Greenland ice cores. Here, we present high-resolution geochemical, sedimentological as well as micropaleontological data from two cores (SO130-283KL, 987m water depth and SO130-289KL, 571m) off the coast of Pakistan, extending the monsoon record on orbital and millennial scales to the past 200,000 years. The stable oxygen isotope record of the surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifer G. ruber shows a strong correspondence to Greenland ice core δ18O, whereas the deepwater δ18O signal of benthic foraminifera (U. peregrina and G. affinis) reflects patterns recorded in ice cores from Antarctica. Strong shifts in benthic δ18O during stadials/Heinrich events are interpreted to show frequent advances of oxygen-rich intermediate water masses into the Arabian Sea originating from the southern ocean. Alkenone-derived SSTs varied between 23 and 28° C. Highest temperatures were encountered during interglacial MIS 5. Rapid SST changes of 2° C magnitude on millennial scale are overlain by long-term SST fluctuations. Interstadials (of glacial phases) and the cold phases of interglacials are characterized by sediments enriched in organic carbon (up to 4 % TOC) whereas sediments with low TOC contents (< 1 % TOC) appear during stadials and Heinrich events. Shifts at climate transitions, such as onsets of interstadials, were coeval with changes in productivity-related and anoxia-indicating proxies. Interstadial inorganic elemental data consistently show that enhanced fluxes of terrestrial-derived sediments are paralleled by productivity maxima, and are characterized by an increased fluvial contribution from the Indus River. In contrast, stadials are

  15. Holocene monsoon variability inferred from Targo Xian peat bog in the Tangra Yumco basin, central Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henkel, Karoline; Haberzettl, Torsten; Miehe, Sabine; Frenzel, Peter; Daut, Gerhard; Dietze, Elisabeth; Kasper, Thomas; Ahlborn, Marieke; Mäusbacher, Roland

    2013-04-01

    The Tibetan Plateau is the greatest plateau on Earth with an average altitude of 4,500 m asl. Due to its high elevation, large area and significant role in the formation of the Asian Monsoon Systems (e.g., Indian Ocean and East-Asian Summer Monsoon) it is considered to react very sensitive to climate variations. The numerous lake systems on the Tibetan Plateau represent excellent archives reflecting variations in the strength of the monsoon system in terms of hydrological changes expressed in lake level fluctuations. For example, terraces and lacustrine deposits around the saline lake Tangra Yumco indicate lake level highstands up to ~215 m higher than the present lake level. To study Holocene lake level variations we investigated a 3.6 m long sediment core recovered from a peat bog (near the Targo Xian settlement, 30°46'N, 86°40'E) on a recessional lake level terrace ~150 m above the present shoreline of Tangra Yumco. In particular, our analyses of sedimentological (grain size), geochemical (CNS and ICP-OES) and mineralogical (XRD) data allow a detailed and high-resolution interpretation of the hydrological conditions during the Holocene. The existence of two carbonate layers in the Targo Xian record, separated by a sand layer and intercalated in peat sequences at the bottom and top of the core, provide evidence for two stable lake stages at the coring position. Peat at the bottom of the core, which is radiocarbon-dated to 11,130 +130/-345 cal BP, indicates wetland conditions similar to the Recent situation (Miehe et al., submitted). After a transition zone, a layer of pure aragonitic lake marl gives evidence for a lake stage. During this stage, high values of the total inorganic carbon (TIC) and Ca/Ti ratios as well as low C/N ratios point to a stable lake due to wet climatic conditions. This carbonate layer can be correlated with a 2-3 m thick carbonate layer found in outcrops around the present lake Tangra Yumco presenting a high lake level until approx. 2

  16. The longitudinal variability of equatorial electrojet and vertical drift velocity in the African and American sectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yizengaw, E.; Moldwin, M. B.; Zesta, E.; Biouele, C. M.; Damtie, B.; Mebrahtu, A.; Rabiu, B.; Valladares, C. F.; Stoneback, R.

    2014-03-01

    While the formation of equatorial electrojet (EEJ) and its temporal variation is believed to be fairly well understood, the longitudinal variability at all local times is still unknown. This paper presents a case and statistical study of the longitudinal variability of dayside EEJ for all local times using ground-based observations. We found EEJ is stronger in the west American sector and decreases from west to east longitudinal sectors. We also confirm the presence of significant longitudinal difference in the dusk sector pre-reversal drift, using the ion velocity meter (IVM) instrument onboard the C/NOFS satellite, with stronger pre-reversal drift in the west American sector compared to the African sector. Previous satellite observations have shown that the African sector is home to stronger and year-round ionospheric bubbles/irregularities compared to the American and Asian sectors. This study's results raises the question if the vertical drift, which is believed to be the main cause for the enhancement of Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability growth rate, is stronger in the American sector and weaker in the African sector - why are the occurrence and amplitude of equatorial irregularities stronger in the African sector?

  17. Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: The Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zorzi, Coralie; Sanchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda; Anupama, Krishnamurthy; Prasad, Srinivasan; Hanquiez, Vincent; Johnson, Joel; Giosan, Liviu

    2015-10-01

    In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric

  18. Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zorzi, Coralie; Fernanda Sanchez Goñi, Maria; Anupama, Krishnamurthy; Prasad, Srinivasan; Hanquiez, Vincent; Johnson, Joel; Giosan, Liviu

    2016-04-01

    In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4,200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4,200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric

  19. Evaluation of Global Monsoon Precipitation Changes based on Five Reanalysis Datasets

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Renping; Zhou, Tianjun; Qian, Yun

    2014-02-01

    With the motivation to identify whether or not a reasonably simulated atmospheric circulation would necessarily lead to a successful reproduction of monsoon precipitation, the performances of five sets of reanalysis data (NCEP2, ERA40, JRA25, ERA-Interim and MERRA) in reproducing the climatology, interannual variation and long-term trend of global monsoon (GM) precipitation are comprehensively evaluated. In order to better understand the variability and long-term trend of GM precipitation, we also examined the major components of water budget, including evaporation, water vapor convergence and the change in local water vapor storage, based on five reanalysis datasets. The results show that all five reanalysis data reasonably reproduce the climatology of GM precipitation. The ERA-Interim (NCEP2) shows the highest (lowest) skill among the five datasets. The observed GM precipitation shows an increasing tendency during 1979-2001 along with a strong interannual variability, which is reasonably reproduced by the five sets of reanalysis data. The observed increasing trend of GM precipitation is dominated by the contribution from the North African, North American and Australian monsoons. All five data fail in reproducing the increasing tendency of North African monsoon precipitation. The wind convergence term in water budget equation dominate the GM precipitation variation, indicating a consistency between the GM precipitation and the seasonal change of prevailing wind.

  20. Enhancing the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model to Account for Natural and Anthropogenic Impacts on Evapotranspiration in the North American Monsoon Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.

    2015-12-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is a poorly constrained flux in the North American monsoon (NAM) region, leading to potential errors in land-atmosphere feedbacks. Due to the region's arid to semi-arid climate, two factors play major roles in ET: sparse vegetation that exhibits dramatic seasonal greening, and irrigated agriculture. To more accurately characterize the spatio-temporal variations of ET in the NAM region, we used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, modified to account for soil evaporation (Esoil), irrigated agriculture, and the variability of land surface properties derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer during 2000-2012. Simulated ET patterns were compared to field observations at fifty-nine eddy covariance towers, water balance estimates in nine basins, and six available gridded ET products. The modified VIC model performed well at eddy covariance towers representing the natural and agricultural land covers in the region. Simulations revealed that major source areas for ET were forested mountain areas during the summer season and irrigated croplands at peak times of growth in the winter and summer, accounting for 22% and 9% of the annual ET, respectively. Over the NAM region, Esoil was the largest component (60%) of annual ET, followed by plant transpiration (T, 32%) and evaporation of canopy interception (8%). Esoil and T displayed different relations with P in natural land covers, with Esoil tending to peak earlier than T by up to one month, while only a weak correlation between ET and P was found in irrigated croplands. These VIC-based estimates are the most realistic to date for this region, outperforming several other process-based and remote-sensing-based gridded ET products. Furthermore, spatio-temporal patterns reveal new information on the magnitudes, locations and timing of ET in the North American monsoon region, with implications for land-atmosphere feedbacks.

  1. Response of the Surface Circulation of the Arabian Sea to Monsoonal Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beal, L. M.; Hormann, V.; Lumpkin, R.; Foltz, G. R.

    2014-12-01

    We use two decades of drifter and satellite data to examine the monthly evolution of the surface circulation of the Arabian Sea, which reverses annually in response to the Indian monsoon winds. Most significantly, we find that in the transition from winter to summer circulations, northward flow appears along the length of the western boundary as early as March or April, one or two months before the onset of the southwest monsoon winds. This reversal is initiated by annual Rossby waves, which in turn are initiated by wind curl forcing during the previous southwest monsoon. These results lead us to speculate that there is an oceanic mechanism through which one monsoon may precondition the next. Previous studies of monsoon circulations with lower temporal resolution have highlighted basin-wide currents and connections that are not found to exist in the monthly fields. In particular, we find that the Northeast Monsoon Current does not reach the western boundary and there is no counter-rotating gyre system during boreal winter. South of the equator, the eastward-flowing South Equatorial Counter Current (SECC) is present year-round, even though equatorial winds are strongly influenced by the monsoons. Semi-annual variability of the SECC is governed by Ekman pumping over the south equatorial gyre (or Seychelles dome) and, surprisingly, it is weakest during the northeast monsoon. This region has important influence on the atmosphere and its link to the monsoons deserves further investigation. The East African Coastal Current feeds into the SECC from the boundary. During the southwest monsoon it overshoots the equator and splits, feeding both northward into the Somali Current and eastward into the SECC after looping back across the equator. This apparent retroflection of the EACC is what was previously known as the southern gyre and is obscured at the surface by strong, locally wind-driven, cross-equatorial Ekman transport. Finally, there is broad, strong eastward flow at

  2. Precessional(?) Variability in East African Aridity During the Past Few Hundred Thousand Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, J.; Brown, E. T.; Johnson, T. C.; Scholz, C. A.; Cohen, A. S.; King, J.

    2007-12-01

    We used scanning X-ray fluorescence to investigate fluctuations in calcium abundance in the upper 200 m of cores MAL05-1B and 1C recovered by the Lake Malawi Drilling Project from a central lake site. Conspicuous variations in calcium concentrations reflect the abundance of endogenic calcite, which accumulates during periods of relatively dry conditions in the Malawi basin. Major calcium peaks occur at fairly regular intervals down core. The power spectrum of calcium on a depth scale reveals a large concentration of variance in the 20-meter- band. More detailed analyses were undertaken on MAL05-1C which has a well-constrained age-depth model built on radiocarbon, paleointensity, inclination, 10Be, and OSL dating [Scholz et al., in press]. We attribute the cycles of calcium fluctuation in MAL05-1C to monsoonal climate driven by variations in local insolation dominated by eccentricity-modulated precession. Scholz, C.A., T.C. Johnson, A.S. Cohen, J.W. King, J.A. Peck, J.T. Overpeck, M.K. Talbot, E.T. Brown, L. Kalindekafe, P.Y.O. Amoako, R.P. Lyons, T.M. Shanahan, I.S. Castaneda, C.W. Heil, S.L. Forman, L.R. McHargue, K. Beuning, J. Gomez, and J. Pierson, East African megadroughts between 135-75 kyr ago and implications for early human history, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, in press.

  3. The role of African easterly waves on Atlantic tropical cyclone variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopsch, Susanna B.

    Coherent vorticity structures were identified at 850hPa over West Africa and the tropical Atlantic in the ERA40 reanalysis. The presence of two dominant source regions for stormtracks over the Atlantic was found. Results show that the southern stormtrack provides most storms that reach the MDR where most tropical cyclones develop. Marked seasonal variability in location and intensity of storms leaving the West African coast exists, which may influence the likelihood of downstream intensification and longevity. There exists considerable year-to-year variability in number of West African storms, both over land and continuing out over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. While the low-frequency variability is well correlated with Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, West African rainfall and SSTs, the interannual variability is found to be uncorrelated. In contrast, variance of 2-6-day-filtered meridional wind, which provides a synoptic-scale measure of AEW activity, shows a significant, positive correlation with TC activity at interannual timescales. The extent to which the nature of AEWs leaving the West African coast is important for influencing the probability of becoming named storms downstream was also explored. The ERA40 dataset has been analyzed for July through September from 1979-2001 to generate a climatology of AEWs leaving the West African coast. A composite view of the structure of the AEWs and their large-scale environment was obtained by identifying all AEWs that were associated with named storms over the MDR. This was compared to the composite of all disturbances that ultimately failed to develop. It is shown that substantial differences in structure and characteristics exist of AEWs that become associated with tropical cyclones and the ones that don't. The most important differences between developing and non-developing AEWs include: (1) Developing AEWs have a distinctive cold-core structure before reaching the West coast. (2) They transform towards more warm

  4. Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability in response to differences in the decay phase of El Niño

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chowdary, Jasti S.; Harsha, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Srinivas, G.; Parekh, Anant; Pillai, Prasanth; Naidu, C. V.

    2016-06-01

    In general the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall is near normal or excess during the El Niño decay phase. Nevertheless the impact of large variations in decaying El Niño on the ISM rainfall and circulation is not systematically examined. Based on the timing of El Niño decay with respect to boreal summer season, El Niño decay phases are classified into three types in this study using 142 years of sea surface temperature (SST) data, which are as follows: (1) early-decay (ED; decay during spring), (2) mid-summer decay (MD; decay by mid-summer) and (3) no-decay (ND; no decay in summer). It is observed that ISM rainfall is above normal/excess during ED years, normal during MD years and below normal/deficit in ND years, suggesting that the differences in El Niño decay phase display profound impact on the ISM rainfall. Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST warming, induced by El Niño, decays rapidly before the second half of the monsoon season (August and September) in ED years, but persists up to the end of the season in MD years, whereas TIO warming maintained up to winter in ND case. Analysis reveals the existence of strong sub-seasonal ISM rainfall variations in the summer following El Niño years. During ED years, strong negative SST anomalies develop over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific by June and are apparent throughout the summer season accompanied by anomalous moisture divergence and high sea level pressure (SLP). The associated moisture convergence and low SLP over ISM region favour excess rainfall (mainly from July onwards). This circulation and rainfall anomalies are highly influenced by warm TIO SST and Pacific La Niña conditions in ED years. Convergence of southwesterlies from Arabian Sea and northeasterlies from Bay of Bengal leads to positive rainfall over most part of the Indian subcontinent from August onwards in MD years. ND years are characterized by negative rainfall anomaly spatial pattern and weaker circulation over India throughout the

  5. Influence of sea level and monsoon variability on sedimentation in the Western Tropical Pacific, Gulf of Papua

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McFadden, M.; Peterson, L. C.; Bentley, S. J.; Dickens, G. R.; Droxler, A. W.; Opdkye, B.

    2010-12-01

    The Gulf of Papua (GoP) is a tropical mixed carbonate-siliciclastic system located along the southeast continental margin of Papua New Guinea. GoP sediments contain a record of late Quaternary climate changes at the edge of the Western Pacific Warm Pool in an area seasonally influenced by movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Results are presented from a suite of sediment cores from the slope of the GoP that document changes in sediment delivery as a result of changes in sea level, monsoon strength, and climate. Patterns of sediment accumulation vary widely on both glacial-interglacial and millennial time scales. High siliciclastic flux occurs during MIS 2. However, even higher siliciclastic fluxes occur during the regressive periods from MIS 3 to 5 and as short pulses during the transgressions (MIS1/2 and 5/6). The greater siliciclastic flux is likely related to falling sea level during this time that remobilized shelf sediment and/or increased tidal scour. Alternating sandy/muddy turbidities and hemipelagic sediment in many trough cores during MIS 3 may be related to fluctuations in sea level and/or climate changes at millennial scale, such as the Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles or Antarctica Warm/Cold Intervals. Short warming events during MIS 3 are documented by Mg/Ca data from G. ruber. Siliciclastic fluxes on the Eastern Plateau are highest during MIS 5b and 5d, which correlate with high summer insolation over Australia that may have increased the strength of the monsoon resulting in an increase in precipitation over Papua New Guinea and a higher siliciclastic flux to the GoP. Initial estimates from paired Mg/Ca and oxygen isotope records from G. ruber indicate decreased salinity during these periods. Spectral analysis of elemental data from X-ray fluorescence shows predominant forcing by precession, but an obliquity signal is also present. In the Gulf of Papua changes in sea level and shelf geometry influence sediment delivery, but changes in climate

  6. Surprising differences in the variability of Y chromosomes in African and cosmopolitan populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

    PubMed

    Larracuente, Amanda M; Clark, Andrew G

    2013-01-01

    The nonrecombining Drosophila melanogaster Y chromosome is heterochromatic and has few genes. Despite these limitations, there remains ample opportunity for natural selection to act on the genes that are vital for male fertility and on Y factors that modulate gene expression elsewhere in the genome. Y chromosomes of many organisms have low levels of nucleotide variability, but a formal survey of D. melanogaster Y chromosome variation had yet to be performed. Here we surveyed Y-linked variation in six populations of D. melanogaster spread across the globe. We find surprisingly low levels of variability in African relative to Cosmopolitan (i.e., non-African) populations. While the low levels of Cosmopolitan Y chromosome polymorphism can be explained by the demographic histories of these populations, the staggeringly low polymorphism of African Y chromosomes cannot be explained by demographic history. An explanation that is entirely consistent with the data is that the Y chromosomes of Zimbabwe and Uganda populations have experienced recent selective sweeps. Interestingly, the Zimbabwe and Uganda Y chromosomes differ: in Zimbabwe, a European Y chromosome appears to have swept through the population.

  7. Maritime Continent rainfall variability during the TRMM era: The role of monsoon, topography and El Niño Modoki

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    As-syakur, Abd. Rahman; Osawa, Takahiro; Miura, Fusanori; Nuarsa, I. Wayan; Ekayanti, Ni Wayan; Dharma, I. Gusti Bagus Sila; Adnyana, I. Wayan Sandi; Arthana, I. Wayan; Tanaka, Tasuku

    2016-09-01

    Rainfall is among the most important climatic elements of the Maritime Continent. The Maritime Continent rainfall climate is uniquely located in the world's most active convective area. Satellite data measured by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 based high-resolution rainfall products represent monthly Maritime Continent rainfall characteristics over 16 years. Several statistical scores were employed to analyse annual means, linear trends, seasonal means, and anomalous Maritime Continent rainfall characteristic percentages. The effects of land and topography on rainfall quantities were also studied and compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) gridded precipitation estimates which has low-resolution. Comparison also applied on linear correlation and partial correlation techniques to determine the relationship between rainfall and the El Niño Modoki and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO; hereafter conventional El Niño). The results show that north-south Maritime Continent precipitation is associated with and generated by the northwest and southeast monsoon patterns. In addition, the large-scale circulations are linked with heavy rainfall over this land-ocean region due to large-scale island-topography-induced convective organization. The rainfall responses to El Niño Modoki and conventional El Niño clearly indicated the times at which the conventional El Niño had a higher impact than El Niño Modoki, especially during northern winter and spring, and vice versa during northern fall, and similarly affect during northern summer. Furthermore, the dynamic movements of rainfall anomaly that are caused by El Niño Modoki and the conventional El Niño events spanned from the southwest during June-July-August (JJA) to throughout the northeast ending in March-April-May (MAM).

  8. Modification of the southern African rainfall variability/ENSO relationship since the late 1960s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richard, Y.; Trzaska, S.; Roucou, P.; Rouault, M.

    Analysis of 149 raingauge series (1946-1988) shows a weak positive correlation between late summer rainfalls (January-March) in tropical southern Africa and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The correlation coefficients have been unstable since World War II. They were close to zero before 1970 and significant thereafter. Before 1970, southern African late summer rainfalls were more specifically correlated with regional patterns of sea surface temperature (SST), mainly over the southwestern Indian Ocean. After 1970, teleconnections with near global SST anomaly patterns, i.e. over the central Pacific and Indian oceans, dominate the regional connections. The increase in the sensitivity of the southern African rainfall to the global SO-related circulation anomalies is simultaneous with the correlation between SOI and more extensive SST anomalies, particularly over the southern Indian Ocean. This feature is part of longer term (decadal), global SST variability, as inferred from statistical analyses. Numerical experiments, using the Météo-France general circulation model ARPEGE-Climat, are performed to test the impact of the observed SST warming in the southern Indian and extratropical oceans during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on southern African rainfall. Simulated results show that ENSO events, which occurred in the relatively cold background of the pre-1970 period in the southern oceans, had a little effect on southern Africa climatic conditions and atmospheric circulation. By contrast, more recent ENSO events, with warmer SST over the southern oceans, lead to a climatic bipolar pattern between continental southern African and the western Indian Ocean, which is characterized by reduced (enhanced) deep convection and rainfall over the subcontinent (the western Indian Ocean). A weaker subtropical high-pressure belt in the southwestern Indian Ocean is also simulated, along with a reduced penetration of the moist southern Indian Ocean trade winds

  9. Evaluation of the potential of organic geochemical proxies from lake sediments from Central India to reconstruct monsoon variability during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarkar, Saswati; Sachse, Dirk; Wilkes, Heinz; Prasad, Sushma; Brauer, Achim; Strecker, Manfred; Basavaiah, Nathani

    2010-05-01

    A better understanding of the past variations of the Indian Monsoon system, which has a deep societal impact on the subcontinent, is essential to determine its behavior under a changing global climate. We aim to reconstruct the variability of the Indian Monsoon, which has both spatially as well as temporally variable nature, during the last 10,000 years using lipid biomarker abundances and stable isotopes from continuous, high-resolution lake sediments in a climatically sensitive region of Central India. Previous sedimentological and geochemical studies on bulk material from a well dated long lake sediment core covering the last 11,000 years have already shown evidence of rapid changes in lithology, sedimentation rate, paleo lake productivity and supply of terrestrial organic matter. Changes in the abundance of source-specific organic compounds - lipid biomarkers - can be useful for the interpretation of past changes in hydrology and ecosystem of the lake and its catchment area as well as their relation to climatic factors. We have identified a number of suitable biomarker compounds for paleohydrological and environmental reconstruction from surface sediments and short cores. Identified biomarker compounds include both aquatic and terrestrial biomarkers. Among the aquatic biomarkers short chain n-alkanes and phytane, most probably derived from cyanobacteria and microbial biomarkers like moretene, diploptene and other hopenes were present. Additionally long chain n-alkanes from vascular land plants from the lake catchment area were identified. Interestingly, the triterpene lipid tetrahymanol and tetrahymanone was found to be the biomarker of highest concentration in all analyzed surface sediments, with concentrations higher than the ubiquitous short-chain fatty acids. Tetrahymanol is often attributed to certain protozoa and frequently found in hypersaline lakes. However, studies have shown that this lipid can also be found in sizable amounts in phototrophic bacteria

  10. Monsoon variability for the past 4 ka derived from high-resolution analyses of sediments from lake Nam Co, central Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasper, T.; Haberzettl, T.; Doberschütz, S.; Daut, G.; Mäusbacher, R.; Wang, J.; Zhu, L.; Wennrich, V.

    2010-12-01

    were used to perform a principle component analysis (PCA). This resulted in the derivation of monsoon variability during the last 4 ka based upon principle component 1 (PC1) which reflects the allochthonous, clastic input into the lake. PC 1 (Si, Ti, K, Fe, Rb) reaches maximum values between approximately 4000 cal BP and 1800 cal BP as well as between 1500 cal BP and 1200 cal BP. This pattern shows a very good correlation to the variability of the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon as recorded in a peat bog in the north-eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau (Hong et al. 2005).

  11. Environmental variability and the evolution of the glucocorticoid receptor (Nr3c1) in African starlings.

    PubMed

    Hofmeister, Natalie R; Rubenstein, Dustin R

    2016-10-01

    One of the primary ways that organisms cope with environmental change is through regulation of the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, the neuroendocrine system that controls reactions to stress. Variation in genes regulating the HPA axis - particularly the glucocorticoid receptor - may facilitate adaptation to changing climatic conditions by altering expression. Here we examine signatures of selection on the glucocorticoid receptor gene (Nr3c1) in African starlings that inhabit a range of environments, including those with variable climatic conditions. To investigate potential adaptive mechanisms underlying the vertebrate stress response, we sequence the Nr3c1 gene in 27 species of African starlings. Although we find some evidence of positive selection, substitution rate is negatively correlated with variance in precipitation. This suggests climatic cycling in sub-Saharan Africa may have resulted in lower substitution rates to maintain a successful coping strategy. When environmental conditions fluctuate rapidly, variation in the strength of purifying selection can explain evolutionary rate variation. PMID:27500971

  12. Variable use of African American English across two language sampling context.

    PubMed

    Washington, J A; Craig, H K; Kushmaul, A J

    1998-10-01

    This investigation compares the impact of two language sampling elicitation contexts, free play and picture description, on variability in the use of African American English (AAE). Subjects were 65 normally-developing African American 4;4- to 6;3-year-old boys and girls from lower socioeconomic status homes. Comparisons of AAE production in the first 50 C units revealed significant differences by context. Picture descriptions elicited more AAE usage overall, a larger set of AAE types, and took less time. Gender differences in the use of AAE tokens were also apparent, with the boys using significantly more tokens than girls in the free play context. The use of AAE types and tokens was comparable for boys and girls in the picture description context. The advantages of language sampling with pictures to determine dialect usage is discussed.

  13. Monsoon-Enso Relationships: A New Paradigm

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K. M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    This article is partly a review and partly a new research paper on monsoon-ENSO relationship. The paper begins with a discussion of the basic relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO dating back to the work of Sir Gilbert Walker up to research results in more recent years. Various factors that may affect the monsoon-ENSO, relationship, including regional coupled ocean-atmosphere processes, Eurasian snow cover, land-atmosphere hydrologic feedback, intraseasonal oscillation, biennial variability and inter-decadal variations, are discussed. The extreme complex and highly nonlinear nature of the monsoon-ENSO relationship is stressed. We find that for regional impacts on the monsoon, El Nino and La Nina are far from simply mirror images of each other. These two polarities of ENSO can have strong or no impacts on monsoon anomalies depending on the strength of the intraseasonal oscillations and the phases of the inter-decadal variations. For the Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) as a whole, the ENSO impact is effected through a east-west shift in the Walker Circulation. For rainfall anomalies over specific monsoon areas, regional processes play important roles in addition to the shift in the Walker Circulation. One of the key regional processes identified for the boreal summer monsoon is the anomalous West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA). This regional feature has similar signatures in interannual and intraseasonal time scales and appears to determine whether the monsoon-ENSO relationship is strong or weak in a given year. Another important regional feature includes a rainfall and SST dipole across the Indian Ocean, which may have strong impact on the austral summer monsoon. Results are shown indicating that monsoon surface wind forcings may induce a strong biennial signal in ENSO and that strong monsoon-ENSO coupling may translate into pronounced biennial variability in ENSO. Finally, a new paradigm is proposed for the study of monsoon variability. This paradigm provides

  14. High-resolution stalagmite reconstructions of Australian-Indonesian monsoon rainfall variability during Heinrich stadial 3 and Greenland interstadial 4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; Gagan, Michael K.; Ayliffe, Linda K.; Zhao, Jian-xin; Hantoro, Wahyoe S.; Treble, Pauline C.; Hellstrom, John C.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Kelley, Maxwell; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Suwargadi, Bambang W.

    2011-02-01

    Little is known about the possible teleconnections between abrupt climatic changes originating in the North Atlantic and precipitation dynamics in the Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) domain. We examine the climatic impacts of Heinrich stadial 3 (HS3) and Greenland interstadials 4 and 3 (GIS4/3) on AISM-associated precipitation through a high-resolution analysis of stable isotope (δ 18O, δ 13C) and trace element (Mg/Ca, P/Ca) ratios in a stalagmite from Liang Luar cave, Flores, Indonesia. Sixteen high precision 230Th dates indicate that stalagmite LR07-E1 grew rapidly (~ 0.3-1.0 mm/yr) in two phases between ~ 31.5-30.1 ka and ~ 27.8-25.6 ka, separated by a ~ 2.3 kyr unconformity. Temporally consistent abrupt responses occur in the Flores record during HS3 and GIS4, which are coherent with changes in stalagmite δ 18O records from China and Brazil. The response of low-latitude precipitation to HS3 cooling and GIS4 warming, as demonstrated by the widely separated sites, comprises three distinct simplified phases: (1) a strong southward migration of the ITCZ during HS3 is associated with a decrease in rainfall at Liang Luar cave and in China, while wetter conditions are reconstructed from Brazil, (2) represents the peak of HS3 impacts and an extended hiatus begins in the Flores record and (3) where suggested dry conditions at Liang Luar throughout GIS4 form part of a coherent north-south anti-phasing in precipitation changes. The reconstructed changes are also broadly consistent with NASA GISS ModelE-R simulations of a Heinrich-like freshwater perturbation in the North Atlantic basin, which produces a southward shift in the ITCZ. The relationship between the palaeoclimate records indicates that atmospheric teleconnections rapidly propagate and synchronise climate change across the hemispheres during periods of abrupt climate change. Our findings augment recent proposals that large-scale atmospheric re-organisations during stadials and interstadials play a

  15. Glacial/interglacial climate controls on east African interannual rainfall variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timmermann, A.; Wolff, C.; Haug, G. H.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.; Brauer, A.; Sigman, D. M.; Cane, M. A.; Verschuren, D.

    2011-12-01

    Interannual rainfall variations in equatorial East Africa are tightly linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with more rain and flooding during El Niño and droughts in La Niña years, both having severe impacts on water stress and food security. Here we report evidence from an annually laminated lake-sediment record from southeastern Kenya for inter-annual to centennial-scale changes in ENSO-related rainfall variability during the last three millennia, abrupt changes in variability between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, and an overall reduction in East African rainfall and its variability during the Last Glacial period. A suite of CCSM3 climate model experiments for LGM, present-day and future CO2-doubling conditions supports forward extrapolations from these lake-sediment data that future Indian Ocean warming will intensify East Africa's hydrological cycle during the short rainy season in September to November.

  16. Plio-pleistocene African climate

    SciTech Connect

    deMenocal, P.B.

    1995-10-06

    Marine records of African climate variability document a shift toward more arid conditions after 2.8 million years ago (Ma), evidently resulting from remote forcing by cold North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures associated with the onset of Northern Hemisphere glacial cycles. African climate before 2.8 Ma was regulated by low-latitude insolation forcing of monsoonal climate due to Earth orbital precession. Major steps in the evolution of African hominids and other vertebrates are coincident with shifts to more arid, open conditions near 2.8 Ma, 1.7 Ma, and 1.0 Ma, suggesting that some Pliocene (Plio)-Pleistocene speciation events may have been climatically mediated. 65 refs., 6 figs.

  17. Plio-Pleistocene African Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demenocal, Peter B.

    1995-10-01

    Marine records of African climate variability document a shift toward more arid conditions after 2.8 million years ago (Ma), evidently resulting from remote forcing by cold North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures associated with the onset of Northern Hemisphere glacial cycles. African climate before 2.8 Ma was regulated by low-latitude insolation forcing of monsoonal climate due to Earth orbital precession. Major steps in the evolution of African hominids and other vertebrates are coincident with shifts to more arid, open conditions near 2.8 Ma, 1.7 Ma, and 1.0 Ma, suggesting that some Pliocene (Plio)-Pleistocene speciation events may have been climatically mediated.

  18. Onset of the summer monsoon during the FGGE 1979 experiment off the East African Coast: A comparison of wind data collected by different means

    SciTech Connect

    Schott, F.; Partagas, J.F.

    1981-05-20

    During FGGE 1979, from March to July, an extensive oceanographic experiment with ships and moored stations was carried out in the Somali Current. The development of the monsoon winds off Somalia during the time of that experiment is described in a comparative analysis of standard ship wind observations, moored buoy wind measurements, low-level cloud winds, and winds from land stations. The onset 1979 is found to be of the multiple type, with northward winds off Somalia beginning around May 5 but dying down into early June; the real onset of sustained high winds starts around June 10. Cloud level wind observation numbers off Somalia decrease drastically with the monsoon onset because of lack of clouds over the quickly developing cold upwelling areas. An intercomparison of cloud level and ship winds for the period May 16 to July 6 at five offshore points shows good agreement in directions but reduction of ship wind speeds against cloud level winds off northern Somalia after the onset, which may explained by the increased vertical wind shear due to high air stability over the upwelled water and by geostrophic shear due to the strong gradients of sea surface temperature. A comparison of 3-day averages of buoy winds measured at 3-m height 30 km offshore, but still inland from the ship lane, with ship winds for the period March 3 to June 10 showed good agreement in directions but lower buoy wind speeds, which could partly be due to sensor height difference and partly due to horizontal wind shear towards the coast. Coastal stations and wind buoys near the coast are found not to be good indicators of the monsoon onset further out in the open ocean.

  19. Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Guofa; Minakawa, Noboru; Githeko, Andrew K.; Yan, Guiyun

    2004-01-01

    The causes of the recent reemergence of Plasmodium falciparum epidemic malaria in the East African highlands are controversial. Regional climate changes have been invoked as a major factor; however, assessing the impact of climate in malaria resurgence is difficult due to high spatial and temporal climate variability and the lack of long-term data series on malaria cases from different sites. Climate variability, defined as short-term fluctuations around the mean climate state, may be epidemiologically more relevant than mean temperature change, but its effects on malaria epidemics have not been rigorously examined. Here we used nonlinear mixed-regression model to investigate the association between autoregression (number of malaria outpatients during the previous time period), seasonality and climate variability, and the number of monthly malaria outpatients of the past 10–20 years in seven highland sites in East Africa. The model explained 65–81% of the variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients. Nonlinear and synergistic effects of temperature and rainfall on the number of malaria outpatients were found in all seven sites. The net variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients caused by autoregression and seasonality varied among sites and ranged from 18 to 63% (mean = 38.6%), whereas 12–63% (mean = 36.1%) of variance is attributed to climate variability. Our results suggest that there was a high spatial variation in the sensitivity of malaria outpatient number to climate fluctuations in the highlands, and that climate variability played an important role in initiating malaria epidemics in the East African highlands. PMID:14983017

  20. Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Guofa; Minakawa, Noboru; Githeko, Andrew K; Yan, Guiyun

    2004-02-24

    The causes of the recent reemergence of Plasmodium falciparum epidemic malaria in the East African highlands are controversial. Regional climate changes have been invoked as a major factor; however, assessing the impact of climate in malaria resurgence is difficult due to high spatial and temporal climate variability and the lack of long-term data series on malaria cases from different sites. Climate variability, defined as short-term fluctuations around the mean climate state, may be epidemiologically more relevant than mean temperature change, but its effects on malaria epidemics have not been rigorously examined. Here we used nonlinear mixed-regression model to investigate the association between autoregression (number of malaria outpatients during the previous time period), seasonality and climate variability, and the number of monthly malaria outpatients of the past 10-20 years in seven highland sites in East Africa. The model explained 65-81% of the variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients. Nonlinear and synergistic effects of temperature and rainfall on the number of malaria outpatients were found in all seven sites. The net variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients caused by autoregression and seasonality varied among sites and ranged from 18 to 63% (mean=38.6%), whereas 12-63% (mean=36.1%) of variance is attributed to climate variability. Our results suggest that there was a high spatial variation in the sensitivity of malaria outpatient number to climate fluctuations in the highlands, and that climate variability played an important role in initiating malaria epidemics in the East African highlands.

  1. Enhanced blood pressure variability in a high cardiovascular risk group of African Americans: FIT4Life Study.

    PubMed

    Veerabhadrappa, Praveen; Diaz, Keith M; Feairheller, Deborah L; Sturgeon, Kathleen M; Williamson, Sheara; Crabbe, Deborah L; Kashem, Abul; Ahrensfield, Debra; Brown, Michael D

    2010-01-01

    High blood pressure (BP) levels in African Americans elicit vascular inflammation resulting in vascular remodeling. BP variability (BPV) correlates with target organ damage. We aimed to investigate the relationship between inflammatory markers and BPV in African Americans. Thirty-six African Americans underwent 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM). BPV was calculated using the average real variability index. Fasting blood samples were assayed for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), and white blood cell (WBC) count. Significant associations between hs-CRP and 24-hour systolic variability (r=0.50; P=.012) and awake systolic variability (r=0.45; P=.02) were identified after adjusting for age, body mass index, and 24-hour mean BP. ABPM variables were compared between the hs-CRP tertile groups. In post-hoc analysis, there was a significant difference in 24-hour and awake periods for both systolic and diastolic variability among the groups. TNF-alpha and WBC count showed no associations with ABPM variables. hs-CRP was associated with systolic variability, and higher levels of hs-CRP were related with greater BPV. Higher inflammatory status influences wider fluctuations in systolic BP, which in turn could facilitate early progression to target organ damage independent of absolute BP levels in African Americans.

  2. Influences of Social and Style Variables on Adult Usage of African American English Features

    PubMed Central

    Craig, Holly K.; Grogger, Jeffrey T.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose In this study, the authors examined the influences of selected social (gender, employment status, educational achievement level) and style variables (race of examiner, interview topic) on the production of African American English (AAE) by adults. Method Participants were 50 African American men and women, ages 20–30 years. The authors used Rapid and Anonymous Survey (RAS) methods to collect responses to questions on informal situational and formal message-oriented topics in a short interview with an unacquainted interlocutor. Results Results revealed strong systematic effects for academic achievement, but not gender or employment status. Most features were used less frequently by participants with higher educational levels, but sharp declines in the usage of 5 specific features distinguished the participants differing in educational achievement. Strong systematic style effects were found for the 2 types of questions, but not race of addressee. The features that were most commonly used across participants—copula absence, variable subject–verb agreement, and appositive pronouns—were also the features that showed the greatest style shifting. Conclusions The findings lay a foundation with mature speakers for rate-based and feature inventory methods recently shown to be informative for the study of child AAE and demonstrate the benefits of the RAS. PMID:22361105

  3. Coherent monsoonal changes in the northern tropics revealed by Chadian lakes (L. Chad and Yoa) sedimentary archives during the African Humid Period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sylvestre, Florence; Kroepelin, Stefan; Pierre, Deschamps; Christine, Cocquyt; Nicolas, Waldmann; Kazuyo, Tachikawa; Amaral Paula, Do; Doriane, Delanghe; Guillaume, Jouve; Edouard, Bard; Camille, Bouchez; Jean-Claude, Doumnang; Jean-Charles, Mazur; Martin, Melles; Guillemette, Menot; Frauke, Rostek; Nicolas, Thouveny; Volkner, Wennrich

    2016-04-01

    In northern African tropics, it is now well established that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was extremely dry followed by a wetter Holocene. Numerous palaeolake records reveal a fairly consistent pattern of a moister early Holocene resulting in a green Sahara followed by the onset of aridification about 4000 years ago. These palaeoenvironmental conditions are deciphered from several continental records distributed over the sub-Saharan zone and including diverse environments. However, pronounced differences in the timing and amplitude of these moisture changes inferred from sedimentary records point to both regional climatic variability change and site-specific influences of local topographic-hydrogeological factors which biased the evolution of water balance reconstructed from individual lacustrine archives. Here we present hydrological reconstructions from Chadian lakes, i.e. Lake Chad (c. 13°N) and Lake Yoa (19°N). Because of their location, both records allow to reconstruct lake level fluctuations and environmental changes according to a gradient from Sahelian to Saharan latitudes. Whereas Lake Chad is considered as a good sensor of climatic changes because of its large drainage basin covering 610,000 km2 in the Sudanian belt, Lake Yoa logs the northern precipitation changes in the Sahara. Combining sedimentological (laser diffraction grain size) and geochemical (XRF analysis) data associated with bio-indicators proxies (diatoms, pollen), we compare lake-level fluctuations and environmental changes during the last 12,000 years. After the hyperarid Last Glacial Maximum period during which dunes covered the Lake Chad basin, both lake records indicate an onset of more humid conditions between 12.5-11 ka cal BP. These resulted in lacustrine transgressions approaching their maximum extension at c. 10.5 ka cal BP. The lacustrine phase was probably interrupted by a relatively short drying event occurring around 8.2 ka cal BP which is well-defined in Lake Yoa by

  4. Latitudinal Hydrologic Variability Along the East African Rift, Over the Past 200 Kyr

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scholz, C. A.

    2014-12-01

    Within the deep sediments of the large lakes of Africa's Great Rift Valley are continuous environmental records of remarkable antiquity and fidelity. Not only do stratigraphic sections from these basins extend back millions of years, many of the intervals represented contain high-resolution material of decadal resolution or better. East African lake basins remain sparsely sampled however, with only a few long and continuous records available. Our ability to image the lakes using seismic reflection methods greatly exceeds our opportunities for coring and drilling however; assessing stratal relationships observed in the geophysical data permits powerful inferences about past hydrologic changes. With intensive hydrocarbon exploration work underway in East Africa, industry well data can also help constrain and ground truth basin histories. Substantial spatio-temporal hydrologic variability is observed in East African basins over the past 200 kyr. Paleohydrological changes in the late Pleistocene and early Holocene are now well constrained in the northern hemisphere East African topics, with widespread aridity and in some cases lake desiccation observed during Heinrich Event 1. A climate recovery followed in the northern hemisphere East African tropics, with the early Holocene African Humid Period a time of positive water balance across most of the rift valley. The paleohydrology of southern hemisphere tropical East Africa is more equivocal, for instance with negligible draw-down of Lake Malawi at HE1. Whereas these late Pleistocene events represent substantial climate reorganizations, severe droughts during the middle-late Pleistocene (150-65 kyr BP) were far more intense, and produced much more severe drawdowns of Lakes Malawi and Tanganyika. Scientific drill cores, kullenberg cores, and extensive seismic reflection data sets from Lakes Malawi and Tanganyika provide indisputable evidence for lowstands of -500m and -600 m respectively. Climate changes that lowered the

  5. Short-term variability in the dates of the Indian monsoon onset and retreat on the southern and northern slopes of the central Himalayas as determined by precipitation stable isotopes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Wusheng; Yao, Tandong; Tian, Lide; Ma, Yaoming; Wen, Rong; Devkota, Lochan P.; Wang, Weicai; Qu, Dongmei; Chhetri, Tek B.

    2016-07-01

    This project launched the first study to compare the stable isotopes (δ18O and δD) in daily precipitation at Kathmandu (located on the southern slope of the central Himalayas) and Tingri (located on the northern slope). The results show that low δ18O and δD values of summer precipitation at the two stations were closely related to intense convection of the Indian monsoon. However, summer δ18O and δD values at Tingri were lower than those at Kathmandu, a result of the lift effect of the Himalayas, coupled with convection disturbances and lower temperatures at Tingri. In winter, the relatively high δ18O and δD values at the two stations appears to have resulted from the influence of the westerlies. Compared with those during the summer, the subsidence of the westerlies and northerly winds resulted in relatively high δ18O and δD values of the winter precipitation at Tingri. Winter δ18O and δD values at Kathmandu far exceeded those at Tingri, due to more intense advection of the southern branch of the westerlies, and higher temperatures and relative humidity at Kathmandu. The detailed differences in stable isotopes between the two stations follow short-term variability in the onset date of the Indian monsoon and its retreat across the central Himalayas. During the sampling period, the Indian monsoon onset at Tingri occurred approximately 1 week later than that at Kathmandu. However, the retreat at Tingri began roughly 3 days earlier. Clearly, the duration of the Indian monsoon effects last longer at Kathmandu than that at Tingri. Our findings also indicate that the India monsoon travels slowly northward across the central Himalayas due to the blocking of the Himalayas, but retreats quickly.

  6. Observed Oceanic and Terrestrial Drivers of North African Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Wang, F.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Wei, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Hydrologic variability can pose a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Yet, the current understanding of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers of North African droughts/pluvials is largely model-based, with vast disagreement among models. In order to identify the observed drivers of North African climate and develop a benchmark for model evaluations, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is applied to observations, remotely sensed data, and reanalysis products. The identified primary oceanic drivers of North African rainfall variability are the Atlantic, tropical Indian, and tropical Pacific Oceans and Mediterranean Sea. During the summer monsoon, positive tropical eastern Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies are associated with a southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, enhanced ocean evaporation, and greater precipitable water across coastal West Africa, leading to increased West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall and decreased Sahel rainfall. During the short rains, positive SST anomalies in the western tropical Indian Ocean and negative anomalies in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean support greater easterly oceanic flow, evaporation over the western ocean, and moisture advection to East Africa, thereby enhancing rainfall. The sign, magnitude, and timing of observed vegetation forcing on rainfall vary across North Africa. The positive feedback of leaf area index (LAI) on rainfall is greatest during DJF for the Horn of Africa, while it peaks in autumn and is weakest during the summer monsoon for the Sahel. Across the WAM region, a positive LAI anomaly supports an earlier monsoon onset, increased rainfall during the pre-monsoon, and decreased rainfall during the wet season. Through unique mechanisms, positive LAI anomalies favor enhanced transpiration, precipitable water, and rainfall across the Sahel and Horn of Africa, and increased roughness, ascent, and rainfall across the WAM region

  7. Variability in ozone and its precursors over the Bay of Bengal during post monsoon: Transport and emission effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallik, C.; Lal, S.; Venkataramani, S.; Naja, M.; Ojha, N.

    2013-09-01

    Simultaneous measurements of O3, CO, NOx, CH4, and light nonmethane hydrocarbons were made over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during 28 October to 17 November 2010 to study the role of chemistry and dynamics. The measurements revealed large variability in O3 (11 to 60 ppbv) and CO (45 to 260 ppbv). Estimated south to north latitudinal gradients in O3 (3.95 ppbv/°) and CO (16.56 ppbv/°) were significantly higher than those observed during earlier campaigns. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory simulated back air trajectories were used to classify these measurements into pollution plumes from nearby sources (India-Bangladesh region and Southeast Asia), influenced by long-range transport and pristine marine air from the Indian Ocean. Interspecies correlations were used to identify emission signatures in these air masses, e.g., chemical proxies suggested influence of biofuel/biomass burning in NE-BoB and E-BoB air masses. Principle component analysis indicated contributions of ship emissions to NOx levels over the BoB. Influences of fire from the Myanmar and Thailand regions are shown to be the potential contributor to enhanced CO levels (>250 ppbv) over the BoB during 14-15 November. Diurnal variations in surface O3 revealed effects of advection, entrainment, and photochemistry. A chemical box model simulated the photochemical buildup in O3 in polluted air masses and daytime destruction in pristine oceanic air masses.

  8. Recurrent Interannual Climate Modes and Teleconnection Linking North America Warm Season Precipitation Anomalies to Asia Summer Monsoon Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K. M.; Weng, H. Y.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we present results showing that summertime precipitation anomalies over North America and East Asia may be linked via pan-Pacific teleconnection patterns, which are components of two dominant recurring global climate modes. The first mode (Mode-1) features an inverse relationship between rainfall anomaly over the US Midwest/central to the eastern/southeastern regions, coupled to a mid-tropospheric high-low pressure system over the northwest and southeast of the US, which regulates low level moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico to the Midwest. The regional circulation pattern appears to be a part of a global climate mode spanning Eurasia, the North Pacific, North America, and the Atlantic. This mode is associated with coherent fluctuations of jetstream variability over East Asia, and Eurasia, SST in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. While Mode-1 is moderately correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it appears to be distinct from it, with strong influences from mid-latitude or possibly from higher latitude processes. Results show that Mode-1 not only has an outstanding contribution to the great flood of 1993, it has large contribution to the US precipitation anomalies in other years. Also noted is an apparent increase in influence of Mode-1 on US summertime precipitation in the last two decades since 1977.

  9. Effects of monsoon precipitation variability on the physiological response of two dominant C₄ grasses across a semiarid ecotone.

    PubMed

    Thomey, Michell L; Collins, Scott L; Friggens, Michael T; Brown, Renee F; Pockman, William T

    2014-11-01

    For the southwestern United States, climate models project an increase in extreme precipitation events and prolonged dry periods. While most studies emphasize plant functional type response to precipitation variability, it is also important to understand the physiological characteristics of dominant plant species that define plant community composition and, in part, regulate ecosystem response to climate change. We utilized rainout shelters to alter the magnitude and frequency of rainfall and measured the physiological response of the dominant C4 grasses, Bouteloua eriopoda and Bouteloua gracilis. We hypothesized that: (1) the more drought-adapted B. eriopoda would exhibit faster recovery and higher rates of leaf-level photosynthesis (A(net)) than B. gracilis, (2) A(net) would be greater under the higher average soil water content in plots receiving 30-mm rainfall events, (3) co-dominance of B. eriopoda and B. gracilis in the ecotone would lead to intra-specific differences from the performance of each species at the site where it was dominant. Throughout the study, soil moisture explained 40-70% of the variation in A(net). Consequently, differences in rainfall treatments were not evident from intra-specific physiological function without sufficient divergence in soil moisture. Under low frequency, larger rainfall events B. gracilis exhibited improved water status and longer periods of C gain than B. eriopoda. Results from this study indicate that less frequent and larger rainfall events could provide a competitive advantage to B. gracilis and influence species composition across this arid-semiarid grassland ecotone.

  10. The monsoon experiment MONEX

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Das, P. K.

    1979-01-01

    The effects of monsoons in different parts of the world on the Earth's atmosphere were studied by MONEX, India's Monsoon Experiment program. Data were gathered from meteorological satellites, sounding rockets, aircraft, land and shipborne stations.

  11. High resolution variability in the Quaternary Indian monsoon inferred from records of clastic input and paleo-production recovered during IODP Expedition 355

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hahn, Annette; Lyle, Mitchell; Kulhanek, Denise; Ando, Sergio; Clift, Peter

    2016-04-01

    The sediment cores obtained from the Indus fan at Site U1457 during Expedition 355 of the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) contain a ca. 100m spliced section covering the past ca. 1Ma. We aim to make use of this unique long, mostly continuous climate archive to unravel the millennial scale atmospheric and oceanic processes linked to changes in the Indian monsoon climate over the Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles. Our aim is to fill this gap using fast, cost-efficient methods (Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy [FTIRS] and X-ray Fluorescence [XRF] scanning) which allow us to study this sequence at a millennial scale resolution (2-3cm sampling interval). An important methodological aspect of this study is developing FTIRS as a method for the simultaneous estimation of the sediment total inorganic carbon and organic carbon content by using the specific fingerprint absorption spectra of minerals (e.g. calcite) and organic sediment components. The resulting paleo-production proxies give indications of oceanic circulation patterns and serve as a direct comparison to the XRF scanning data. Initial results show that variability in paleo-production is accompanied by changes in the quantity and composition of clastic input to the site. Phases of increased deposition of terrigenous material are enriched in K, Al, Fe and Si. Both changes in the weathering and erosion focus areas affect the mineralogy and elemental composition of the clastic input as grain size and mineralogical changes are reflected in the ratios of lighter to heavier elements. Furthermore, trace element compositions (Zn, Cu, Mn) give indications of diagenetic processes and contribute to the understanding of the depositional environment. The resulting datasets will lead to a more comprehensive understanding of the interplay of the local atmospheric and oceanic circulation processes over glacial-interglacial cycles; an essential prerequisite for regional predictions of global climate

  12. Late Pleistocene monsoon variability in northwest Thailand: an oxygen isotope sequence from the bivalve Margaritanopsis laosensis excavated in Mae Hong Son province

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marwick, Ben; Gagan, Michael K.

    2011-10-01

    Long, continuous records of Late Quaternary environmental change are rare in Southeast Asia, yet they are crucial for understanding the nature of early human dispersal and occupation in the Australasian region. We present a new record of palaeomonsoon activity extending back to 35,000 BP (years before the present), based on the analysis of oxygen isotope ratios (δ 18O) in the freshwater bivalve Margaritanopsis laosensis excavated from the Tham Lod and Ban Rai rockshelters in Mae Hong Son Province, northwest Thailand. Long-term changes in the M. laosensis δ 18O record reflect changes in the δ 18O of the river water in which these organisms grew, and correlate well with changes in speleothem δ 18O records of east Asian monsoon rainfall from Hulu Cave and Dongge Cave in China. The new northwest Thailand δ 18O sequence indicates wetter and relatively unstable climatic conditions from 35,000 to 20,000 BP, followed by drier conditions from 20,000 to 11,500 BP. A period of peak aridity occurred around 15,600 BP during Heinrich Event 1, suggesting that the intertropical convergence zone shifted southward when the North Atlantic region cooled. However, there is little evidence for the Younger Dryas event at ˜12,800-11,500 BP. After 9,800 BP, precipitation increased substantially and climatic variability declined. Our findings provide an improved baseline against which to gauge interactions between early humans and climate change in Southeast Asia. For example, there was no significant change in the prehistoric flake stone technology used at Tham Lod and Ban Rai despite the bivalve δ 18O evidence for substantial climate change in the region. Also, the climatic impact of the Younger Dryas event appears to have been less intense in northwest Thailand compared to the cooling and drying observed in China, and may explain why agriculture made a relatively late appearance in Thailand, possibly involving migrants from China.

  13. Global aspects of monsoons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murakami, T.

    1985-01-01

    Recent developments are studied in three areas of monsoon research: (1) global aspects of the monsoon onset, (2) the orographic influence of the Tibetan Plateau on the summer monsoon circulations, and (3) tropical 40 to 50 day oscillations. Reference was made only to those studies that are primarily based on FGGE Level IIIb data. A brief summary is given.

  14. A possible link between North Atlantic cooling and dry events in the core SW monsoon region identified from Lonar Lake in central India: Indication of a connection between solar output and monsoon variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menzel, P.; Gaye, B.; Prasad, S.; Plessen, B.; Stebich, M.; Anoop, A.; Riedel, N.; Basavaiah, N.

    2013-12-01

    Former comparison of climate sensitive proxies from natural archives of the northern monsoon domain with proxy data from mid and high latitude archives have proven a correlation between the proxies of both regions. But still some ambiguities concerning the mechanisms that drive this correlation exist. During our investigation of a sediment core from Lonar Lake in central India, which covers the complete Holocene sedimentation history of the lake, we could identify several phases of centennial scale climate alteration on the basis of stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios, mineralogy, and amino acid derived degradation proxies. These phases correlate with climate sensitive proxies from the North Atlantic region as well as with 14C nuclide production rate, which indicates changes in solar output. The results from this first continuous, high resolution record of Holocene climate history from central India indicate sensitivity of monsoon climate to solar forcing. Additionally, a connection between North Atlantic climate and the climate of a region that is not affected by the Westerlies or shifts of the summer ITCZ to a position south of the investigation site could be identified.

  15. Earth's eccentricity cycles and Indian Summer Monsoon variability over the past 2 million years: Evidence from deep-sea benthic foraminifer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Anil K.; Dhingra, Hitesh; Mélice, Jean-Luc; Anderson, David M.

    Spectral analysis of a Uvigerina proboscidea time series from DSDP Site 214 using the Lomb-Scargle method for unevenly sampled data, exhibits two dominant power peaks at 412 and 94 kyrs over the last 2 million years, which correspond to the Earth's eccentricity cycles. The results indicate that the SW monsoon varied at about 100 kyr and 400 kyr periodicities within Earth's eccentricity domain (Milankovitch range) over the past 2 million years. Wavelet transform analysis reveals the non-stationary nature of monsoon upwelling over this interval. The amplitude of the 400 kyr cycle in the U. proboscidea time series began to increase at ∼900 kyrs as has also been observed in few recent studies. We do not see a strong relation between eccentricity highs and intense summer monsoons over the studied interval.

  16. The Freshwater Oyster Etheria elliptica as a Tool to Reconstruct Climate Variability across the African Continent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanhove, D.; Gillikin, D. P.; Kelemen, Z.; Bouillon, S.

    2015-12-01

    The bivalve Etheria elliptica occurs abundantly in (sub)tropical African river basins. We investigate its potential use for the reconstruction of ambient water chemistry and climate by means of stable oxygen isotope ratios in specimens from the Congo river (Kisangani), the Oubangui river (Bangui) and the Victoria Nile (Jinja). Unlike other common African bivalve species, E. elliptica contains distinct organic-rich growth increments, previously suggested to correlate with lunar periodicity. However, cavities in the shell complicate age reading and little is known about the exact timing and continuity of these growth increments. We set up a comparative study between different techniques to visualize and enhance growth features, and find that staining with Mutvei's solution and confocal fluorescence microscopy perform equally well. Despite the presence of cavities, growth lines can generally be followed from umbo to shell margin. Moreover, preliminary δ18O results of two micro-sampled specimens from the Oubangui river show that 12-13 growth lines occur within one year of growth. This corroborates that these increments can be used as temporal anchor points, providing a moon-monthly time frame for sequential microchemistry. In two Congo river specimens, δ18Oshell values vary between -1.9 and -3.8 ‰ (VPDB), in line with a predicted range of -2.1 to -4.1 ‰ based on fortnightly δ18Owater and T monitoring. Reconstructed intra-annual δ18Owater variability from δ18Oshell values and observed T correlates with discharge, reflecting rainfall and runoff variability in the upstream catchment area. In two Victoria Nile specimens, collected 20 km downstream from Lake Victoria, δ18Oshell values are high and relatively constant, varying between +1.8 and +3.2 ‰. Enrichment of 18Oshell is consistent with isotopically heavy rainfall signatures and elevated surface evaporation in Lake Victoria. These first results suggest that E. elliptica is well-suited for the reconstruction

  17. Observed decadal variability of southern African rainfall, their teleconnections, and uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dieppois, Bastien; Pohl, Benjamin; Rouault, Mathieu; New, Mark; Lawler, Damian; Keenlyside, Noel

    2016-04-01

    This study examines for the first time the changing characteristics of summer and winter southern African rainfall, and their teleconnections with large-scale climate through the dominant timescales of variability. The summer and winter rainfall indices exhibit three significant timescales of variability over the 20th century: interdecadal (15-28 year), quasi-decadal (8-13 year) and interannual (2-8 year). Teleconnections with global sea-surface temperature and atmospheric circulation anomalies, which have been established here using different data sets, are different for each timescale. Uncertainty related to the choice of observed-based SST and reanalysis data sets appears stronger over the winter rainfall region and at the interdecadal timescale. However, only SST and atmospheric anomalies which show an agreement greater than 90% between data sets, or between the members of the reanalysis, have been described. Tropical/subtropical teleconnections emerge as the main driver of summer rainfall variability. Thus, shifts in the Walker circulation are linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, at decadal timescales, to decadal ENSO-like patterns related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. These global changes in the upper-zonal circulation interact with asymmetric ocean-atmospheric modifications between the South Atlantic and South Indian Oceans; together these lead to shift in the South Indian Convergence Zone, and a modulation of the development of convective rain bearing systems over southern Africa in summer. Such regional changes, embedded in quasi-annular geopotential patterns, consist of easterly moisture fluxes from the Mascarene High, which dominate southerly moisture fluxes from the St Helena High. Winter rainfall variability is more influenced by mid-latitude atmospheric variability, in particular the Southern Annular Mode, but interactions with ENSO remain, especially in the subtropics. Asymmetrical

  18. Interannual to interdecadal variability of winter and summer southern African rainfall, and their teleconnections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dieppois, Bastien; Pohl, Benjamin; Rouault, Mathieu; New, Mark; Lawler, Damian; Keenlyside, Noel

    2016-06-01

    This study examines for the first time the changing characteristics of summer and winter southern African rainfall and their teleconnections with large-scale climate through the dominant time scales of variability. As determined by wavelet analysis, the austral summer and winter rainfall indices exhibit three significant time scales of variability over the twentieth century: interdecadal (15-28 years), quasi-decadal (8-13 years), and interannual (2-8 years). Teleconnections with global sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation anomalies are established here but are different for each time scale. Tropical/subtropical teleconnections emerge as the main driver of austral summer rainfall variability. Thus, shifts in the Walker circulation are linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, at decadal time scales, to decadal ENSO-like patterns related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. These global changes in the upper zonal circulation interact with asymmetric ocean-atmospheric conditions between the South Atlantic and South Indian Oceans; together, these lead to a shift in the South Indian Convergence Zone and a modulation of the development of convective rain-bearing systems over southern Africa in summer. Such regional changes, embedded in quasi-annular geopotential patterns, consist of easterly moisture fluxes from the South Indian High, which dominate southerly moisture fluxes from the South Atlantic High. Austral winter rainfall variability is more influenced by midlatitude atmospheric variability, in particular the Southern Annular Mode. The rainfall changes in the southwestern regions of southern Africa are determined by asymmetrical changes in the midlatitude westerlies between the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

  19. Spatial and temporal variability of (7)Be and (210)Pb wet deposition during four successive monsoon storms in a catchment of northern Laos.

    PubMed

    Gourdin, E; Evrard, O; Huon, S; Reyss, J-L; Ribolzi, O; Bariac, T; Sengtaheuanghoung, O; Ayrault, S

    2014-10-01

    Fallout radionuclides (7)Be and (210)Pb have been identified as potentially relevant temporal tracers for studying soil particles dynamics (surface vs. subsurface sources contribution; remobilization of in-channel sediment) during erosive events in river catchments. An increasing number of studies compared (7)Be: (210)Pb activity ratio in rainwater and sediment to estimate percentages of freshly eroded particles. However, the lack of data regarding the spatial and temporal variability of radionuclide wet deposition during individual storms has been identified as one of the main gaps in these estimates. In order to determine these key parameters, rainwater samples were collected at three stations during four storms that occurred at the beginning of the monsoon (June 2013) in the Houay Xon mountainous catchment in northern Laos. Rainwater (7)Be and (210)Pb activities measured using very low background hyperpure Germanium detectors ranged from 0.05 to 1.72 Bq L(-1) and 0.02 to 0.26 Bq L(-1), respectively. Water δ(18)O were determined on the same samples. Total rainfall amount of the four sampled storms ranged from 4.8 to 26.4 mm (51 mm in total) at the time-fractionated collection point. Corresponding cumulative (7)Be and (210)Pb wet depositions during the sampling period were 17.6 and 2.9 Bq m(-2), respectively. The (7)Be: (210)Pb activity ratio varied (1) in space from 6 to 9 for daily deposition and (2) in time from 3 to 12 for samples successively collected. Intra-event evolution of rainwater (7)Be and (210)Pb activities as well as δ(18)O highlighted the progressive depletion of local infra-cloud atmosphere radionuclide stock with time (washout), which remains consistent with a Raleigh-type distillation process for water vapour. Intra-storm ratio increasing with time showed the increasing contribution of rainout scavenging. Implications of such variability for soil particle labelling and erosion studies are briefly discussed and recommendations are formulated

  20. Spatial and temporal variability of (7)Be and (210)Pb wet deposition during four successive monsoon storms in a catchment of northern Laos.

    PubMed

    Gourdin, E; Evrard, O; Huon, S; Reyss, J-L; Ribolzi, O; Bariac, T; Sengtaheuanghoung, O; Ayrault, S

    2014-10-01

    Fallout radionuclides (7)Be and (210)Pb have been identified as potentially relevant temporal tracers for studying soil particles dynamics (surface vs. subsurface sources contribution; remobilization of in-channel sediment) during erosive events in river catchments. An increasing number of studies compared (7)Be: (210)Pb activity ratio in rainwater and sediment to estimate percentages of freshly eroded particles. However, the lack of data regarding the spatial and temporal variability of radionuclide wet deposition during individual storms has been identified as one of the main gaps in these estimates. In order to determine these key parameters, rainwater samples were collected at three stations during four storms that occurred at the beginning of the monsoon (June 2013) in the Houay Xon mountainous catchment in northern Laos. Rainwater (7)Be and (210)Pb activities measured using very low background hyperpure Germanium detectors ranged from 0.05 to 1.72 Bq L(-1) and 0.02 to 0.26 Bq L(-1), respectively. Water δ(18)O were determined on the same samples. Total rainfall amount of the four sampled storms ranged from 4.8 to 26.4 mm (51 mm in total) at the time-fractionated collection point. Corresponding cumulative (7)Be and (210)Pb wet depositions during the sampling period were 17.6 and 2.9 Bq m(-2), respectively. The (7)Be: (210)Pb activity ratio varied (1) in space from 6 to 9 for daily deposition and (2) in time from 3 to 12 for samples successively collected. Intra-event evolution of rainwater (7)Be and (210)Pb activities as well as δ(18)O highlighted the progressive depletion of local infra-cloud atmosphere radionuclide stock with time (washout), which remains consistent with a Raleigh-type distillation process for water vapour. Intra-storm ratio increasing with time showed the increasing contribution of rainout scavenging. Implications of such variability for soil particle labelling and erosion studies are briefly discussed and recommendations are formulated

  1. An assessment of monsoon precipitation changes during 1901-2001: Observation and Model Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, T.; Zhang, L.

    2010-12-01

    Changes of global land monsoon precipitation are examined by using three sets of rain-gauge precipitation data for the period of 1901-2001 compiled by GPCC, CRU and Dai, respectively. The three datasets show consistent long-term changes of precipitation over the monsoon region with slightly different amplitudes. During 1901-2001, global land monsoon precipitation (GMI) exhibits multi-decadal variations, with an overall increasing trend from 1901 to 1955, followed by a decreasing trend up to 2001. The upward trends during 1901-1955 of global and northern hemispheric land monsoon precipitation are mainly resulted from the increased precipitation over the North African, Indian and East Asian monsoon domains. For the whole period of 1901-2001, precipitation averaged over the Northern Hemisphere and global land monsoon areas all exhibit a decreasing trends, although it is only statistically significant at the 5% level for the Northern Hemisphere. The robust decreasing trend of northern hemispheric land monsoon precipitations during the 20th century mainly comes from the downward trend of North African and eastern part of Indian monsoon precipitation and occurs mainly after the 1950s. The first leading mode of Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of precipitation annual range features a coherent change of North African, South Asian, Northeast China, southern South African, eastern Australian and western American monsoon, and a coherent change over the equatorial South African monsoon and eastern American monsoon. The corresponding principal component time series also indicates that the majority of global land monsoon precipitation has experienced an increasing tendency from 1901 to 1950s and a decreasing trend since 1950s. The results of observational data diagnosis are compared with the results of AGCM simulations forced by historical sea surface temperature. Possible mechanisms for global land monsoon changes are discussed.

  2. Multidecadal to multicentury scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere monsoons over the past millennium

    PubMed Central

    Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor J.; Rasmussen, Jessica B. T.; Burns, Stephen J.; Lachniet, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    Late Holocene climate in western North America was punctuated by periods of extended aridity called megadroughts. These droughts have been linked to cool eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here, we show both short-term and long-term climate variability over the last 1,500 y from annual band thickness and stable isotope speleothem data. Several megadroughts are evident, including a multicentury one, AD 1350–1650, herein referred to as Super Drought, which corresponds to the coldest period of the Little Ice Age. Synchronicity between southwestern North American, Chinese, and West African monsoon precipitation suggests the megadroughts were hemispheric in scale. Northern Hemisphere monsoon strength over the last millennium is positively correlated with Northern Hemisphere temperature and North Atlantic SST. The megadroughts are associated with cooler than average SST and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Furthermore, the megadroughts, including the Super Drought, coincide with solar insolation minima, suggesting that solar forcing of sea surface and atmospheric temperatures may generate variations in the strength of Northern Hemisphere monsoons. Our findings seem to suggest stronger (wetter) Northern Hemisphere monsoons with increased warming. PMID:23716648

  3. Multidecadal to multicentury scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere monsoons over the past millennium.

    PubMed

    Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor J; Rasmussen, Jessica B T; Burns, Stephen J; Lachniet, Matthew

    2013-06-11

    Late Holocene climate in western North America was punctuated by periods of extended aridity called megadroughts. These droughts have been linked to cool eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here, we show both short-term and long-term climate variability over the last 1,500 y from annual band thickness and stable isotope speleothem data. Several megadroughts are evident, including a multicentury one, AD 1350-1650, herein referred to as Super Drought, which corresponds to the coldest period of the Little Ice Age. Synchronicity between southwestern North American, Chinese, and West African monsoon precipitation suggests the megadroughts were hemispheric in scale. Northern Hemisphere monsoon strength over the last millennium is positively correlated with Northern Hemisphere temperature and North Atlantic SST. The megadroughts are associated with cooler than average SST and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Furthermore, the megadroughts, including the Super Drought, coincide with solar insolation minima, suggesting that solar forcing of sea surface and atmospheric temperatures may generate variations in the strength of Northern Hemisphere monsoons. Our findings seem to suggest stronger (wetter) Northern Hemisphere monsoons with increased warming.

  4. Impact of Mascarene High variability on the East African `short rains'

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manatsa, Desmond; Morioka, Yushi; Behera, Swadhin K.; Matarira, Caxston H.; Yamagata, Toshio

    2014-03-01

    The interannual variability of East African `short rains' (EASR) and its link with the Mascarene High (MH) variation are explored, using observations and reanalysis data. Correlation and composite analyses for flood and drought events reveal that the EASR variability is strongly linked to the MH zonal displacement, in particular, the zonal movement of the MH eastern ridge. When the MH eastern ridge is anomalously displaced to the west (east) of its normal position, the south east (SE) trade winds over the South Indian Ocean (SIO) anomalously strengthen (weaken). This enhances (reduces) the relatively cool and dry SE trade winds and induces cold (warm) sea surface temperature anomaly in the SIO. As a result, convection over the western equatorial SIO is suppressed (enhanced) and leads to rainfall deficits (excess) over East Africa. Droughts in East Africa are associated with a westward migration of the MH eastern ridge, while the relationship is less clear for flood events and their link to an eastward migration of the MH. Therefore, the zonal migration of the MH eastern ridge provides a novel indicator for the EASR extremes especially droughts. This revelation has immense social application for rainfall forecast over East Africa where rainfall deficits have become more prevalent against the background of deteriorating conventional forecasts for EASR droughts.

  5. Simulation of South-Asian Summer Monsoon in a GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ajayamohan, R. S.

    2007-10-01

    Major characteristics of Indian summer monsoon climate are analyzed using simulations from the upgraded version of Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The Indian monsoon has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and low-level and upper-level circulation patterns and compared with observations. In addition, the model's fidelity in simulating observed monsoon intraseasonal variability, interannual variability and teleconnection patterns is examined. The model is successful in simulating the major rainbelts over the Indian monsoon region. However, the model exhibits bias in simulating the precipitation bands over the South China Sea and the West Pacific region. Seasonal mean circulation patterns of low-level and upper-level winds are consistent with the model's precipitation pattern. Basic features like onset and peak phase of monsoon are realistically simulated. However, model simulation indicates an early withdrawal of monsoon. Northward propagation of rainbelts over the Indian continent is simulated fairly well, but the propagation is weak over the ocean. The model simulates the meridional dipole structure associated with the monsoon intraseasonal variability realistically. The model is unable to capture the observed interannual variability of monsoon and its teleconnection patterns. Estimate of potential predictability of the model reveals the dominating influence of internal variability over the Indian monsoon region.

  6. The First Pan-WCRP Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoons

    SciTech Connect

    Sperber, K R; Yasunari, T

    2005-07-27

    In 2004 the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) that provides scientific guidance to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) requested an assessment of (1) WCRP monsoon related activities and (2) the range of available observations and analyses in monsoon regions. The purpose of the assessment was to (a) define the essential elements of a pan-WCRP monsoon modeling strategy, (b) identify the procedures for producing this strategy, and (c) promote improvements in monsoon observations and analyses with a view toward their adequacy, and addressing any undue redundancy or duplication. As such, the WCRP sponsored the ''1st Pan-WCRP Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoons'' at the University of California, Irvine, CA, USA from 15-17 June 2005. Experts from the two WCRP programs directly relevant to monsoon studies, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR) and the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), gathered to assess the current understanding of the fundamental physical processes governing monsoon variability and to highlight outstanding problems in simulating the monsoon that can be tackled through enhanced cooperation between CLIVAR and GEWEX. The agenda with links to the presentations can be found at: http://www.clivar.org/organization/aamon/WCRPmonsoonWS/agenda.htm. Scientific motivation for a joint CLIVAR-GEWEX approach to investigating monsoons includes the potential for improved medium-range to seasonal prediction through better simulation of intraseasonal (30-60 day) oscillations (ISO's). ISO's are important for the onset of monsoons, as well as the development of active and break periods of rainfall during the monsoon season. Foreknowledge of the active and break phases of the monsoon is important for crop selection, the determination of planting times and mitigation of potential flooding and short-term drought. With a few exceptions simulations of ISO are typically poor in all classes of

  7. A Record of Early to Middle Holocene Hydroclimate Variability from the West African Sahel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McIntosh, R.; Douglas, P. M.; Warren, C.; Meyers, S. R.; Coutros, P.; Park, D. P.

    2011-12-01

    The African Humid Period (ca. 14.8 to 5.5 ka) is an interval of wet climates across northwest Africa, with evidence for widespread lake basins and savannah vegetation in areas that are now desert. There are few high-resolution continental records of hydrologic variability during the African humid period however. In particular, it remains uncertain how periods of north Atlantic climate variability were expressed in northwest Africa. We present results from a 5.4 meter sediment core from Lake Fati in northern Mali (16.29° N, 3.71° W), which represents the first lake sediment core from the western Sahel. The Lake Fati core contains a continuous record of lake mud from 10.43 to 4.66 kyr BP. Centimeter scale XRF scanning indicates strong covariation between iron, calcium, manganese and phosphorous abundance due to enrichment of these elements during periods of enhanced deposition of authigenic siderite. Preliminary oxygen isotope measurements indicate that authigenic siderite δ18O values are positively correlated with Fe counts, suggesting that siderite deposition increased during drier periods with greater evaporation of lake waters. These drying events occurred on decadal to centennial time scales, with higher-frequency variability during the early Holocene. Peaks in zirconium and titanium abundance coincide with some of the inferred dry periods, suggesting that deposition of aeolian silt coincided with periods of increased evaporation of lake water. A roughly 30 year interval of sand deposition at ~8.33 kyr BP suggests major drying and activation of aeolian sand deposition. This abrupt climate change could be related to the 8.2 ka event in the North Atlantic; further efforts to refine the sediment core age model will constrain the relationship of this rapid drying to abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic. Aluminum and silicon counts co-vary for much of the lake Fati record, and are related to input of terrigenous sediment, primarily during seasonal flooding

  8. Observations of the temporal variability in aerosol properties and their relationships to meteorology in the summer monsoonal South China Sea/East Sea: the role of monsoonal flows, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones, squall lines and cold pools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reid, J. S.; Lagrosas, N. D.; Jonsson, H. H.; Reid, E. A.; Sessions, W. R.; Simpas, J. B.; Uy, S. N.; Boyd, T. J.; Atwood, S. A.; Blake, D. R.; Campbell, J. R.; Cliff, S. S.; Holben, B. N.; Holz, R. E.; Hyer, E. J.; Lynch, P.; Meinardi, S.; Posselt, D. J.; Richardson, K. A.; Salinas, S. V.; Smirnov, A.; Wang, Q.; Yu, L. E.; Zhang, J.

    2014-08-01

    In a joint NRL/Manila Observatory mission, as part of the 7 SouthEast Asian Studies program (7SEAS), a two-week, late September~2011 research cruise in the northern Palawan Archipelago was undertaken to observe the nature of southwest monsoonal aerosol particles in the South China Sea/East Sea (SCS/ES) and Sulu Sea region. Previous analyses suggested this region as a~receptor for biomass burning from Borneo and Sumatra for boundary layer air entering the monsoonal trough. Anthropogenic pollution and biofuel emissions are also ubiquitous, as is heavy shipping traffic. Here, we provide an overview of the regional environment during the cruise, a time series of key aerosol and meteorological parameters, and their interrelationships. Overall, this cruise provides a~narrative of the processes that control regional aerosol loadings and their possible feedbacks with clouds and precipitation. While 2011 was a moderate El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) La Nina year, higher burning activity and lower precipitation was more typical of neutral conditions. The large-scale aerosol environment was modulated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated tropical cyclone (TC) activity in a manner consistent with the conceptual analysis performed by Reid et al. (2012). Advancement of the MJO from phase 3 to 6 with accompanying cyclogenesis during the cruise period strengthened flow patterns in the SCS/ES that modulated aerosol lifecycle. TC inflow arms of significant convection sometimes span from Sumatra to Luzon, resulting in very low particle concentrations (minimum condensation nuclei CN < 150 cm-3, non-sea salt PM2.5=1μg m-3). However, elevated carbon monoxide levels were occasionally observed suggesting passage of polluted air masses whose aerosol particles had been rained out. Conversely, two drier periods occurred with higher aerosol particle concentrations originating from Borneo and Southern Sumatra (CN > 3000 cm-3 and non-sea salt PM2.510-25 μg m-3). These

  9. Impact of potential large-scale and medium-scale irrigation on the West African Monsoon and its dependence on location of irrigated area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eltahir, E. A. B.; IM, E. S.

    2014-12-01

    This study investigates the impact of potential large-scale (about 400,000 km2) and medium-scale (about 60,000 km2) irrigation on the climate of West Africa using the MIT Regional Climate Model. A new irrigation module is implemented to assess the impact of location and scheduling of irrigation on rainfall distribution over West Africa. A control simulation (without irrigation) and various sensitivity experiments (with irrigation) are performed and compared to discern the effects of irrigation location, size and scheduling. In general, the irrigation-induced surface cooling due to anomalously wet soil tends to suppress moist convection and rainfall, which in turn induces local subsidence and low level anti-cyclonic circulation. These local effects are dominated by a consistent reduction of local rainfall over the irrigated land, irrespective of its location. However, the remote response of rainfall distribution to irrigation exhibits a significant sensitivity to the latitudinal position of irrigation. The low-level northeasterly flow associated with anti-cyclonic circulation centered over the irrigation area can enhance the extent of low level convergence through interaction with the prevailing monsoon flow, leading to significant increase in rainfall. Despite much reduced forcing of irrigation water, the medium-scale irrigation seems to draw the same response as large-scale irrigation, which supports the robustness of the response to irrigation in our modeling system. Both large-scale and medium-scale irrigation experiments show that an optimal irrigation location and scheduling exists that would lead to a more efficient use of irrigation water. The approach of using a regional climate model to investigate the impact of location and size of irrigation schemes may be the first step in incorporating land-atmosphere interactions in the design of location and size of irrigation projects. However, this theoretical approach is still in early stages of development and

  10. Monsoons in a changing world: A regional perspective in a global context

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitoh, Akio; Endo, Hirokazu; Krishna Kumar, K.; Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.; Goswami, Prashant; Zhou, Tianjun

    2013-04-01

    provide a new view of global and regional monsoonal rainfall, and their changes in the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios as projected by 29 climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The model results show that the global monsoon area defined by the annual range in precipitation is projected to expand mainly over the central to eastern tropical Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean, and eastern Asia. The global monsoon precipitation intensity and the global monsoon total precipitation are also projected to increase. Indices of heavy precipitation are projected to increase much more than those for mean precipitation. Over the Asian monsoon domain, projected changes in extreme precipitation indices are larger than over other monsoon domains, indicating the strong sensitivity of Asian monsoon to global warming. Over the American and African monsoon regions, projected future changes in mean precipitation are rather modest, but those in precipitation extremes are large. Models project that monsoon retreat dates will delay, while onset dates will either advance or show no change, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season. However, models' limited ability to reproduce the present monsoon climate and the large scatter among the model projections limit the confidence in the results. The projected increase of the global monsoon precipitation can be attributed to an increase of moisture convergence due to increased surface evaporation and water vapor in the air column although offset to a certain extent by the weakening of the monsoon circulation.

  11. The role of the New Guinea cross-equatorial flow in the interannual variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Yu-Wei; LinHo; Chou, Chia

    2014-04-01

    The western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon trough from 1958 to 2001 shows a binary-like feature in August and September, with more than half being either an imposing presence or a total absence. One of the major moisture sources maintaining the WNP monsoon trough is the low-level moisture advection laterally driven by the low-level cross-equatorial flow that originates from the Banda Sea and Solomon Sea. By decomposing contributions to the cross-equatorial flow based on the method proposed by Back and Bretherton in 2009, the boundary-layer pressure gradient in the Maritime Continent plays a major role. This pressure gradient is further found to be associated with the densely packed sea surface temperature (SST) gradient near the equator around New Guinea, which is well correlated with the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, a concurrent El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition.

  12. Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Funk, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

  13. Terrigenous supplies variability over the past 22,000 yr in the southern South China Sea slope: Relation to sea level and monsoon rainfall changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Jie; Jiang, Fuqing; Wan, Shiming; Zhang, Jin; Li, Anchun; Li, Tiegang

    2016-03-01

    Changing weathering intensity, sediment transport, and provenance variations over the past 22.0 ka BP have been investigated by high-resolution clay mineralogy, grain-size and stable oxygen isotopes of planktonic foraminifera records along core CG2 recovered from the continental slope of the Sunda Shelf (southern South China Sea). Our results indicated that the reworking of older sediments outcropping on the Sunda Shelf exerted a great influence on the sediment supply during the last glacial and most of the last deglacial, modulated by sea level and monsoon rainfall changes. During the last 9.0 ka BP, relative increased kaolinite and heavier δ18Oseawater values might reflect the higher influence of the tropical Indonesian Islands sources due to the reopen of southern straits, implying the formation of modern oceanic circulation and depositional patterns. High sediment fluxes in core CG2 during Heinrich stadial 1 might be a synthetic result of the intensified monsoon rainfall originated from the southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the proximal location of the study core before the flooding of the Sunda Shelf. Fluctuations in smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratios correlated well with monsoon intensity, and periods of strong monsoon rainfall (lighter δ18Oseawater values) were associated with an intensification of erosion of pre-existing, more weathered materials on the Sunda Shelf. Finally, we concluded that sediment composition and mineralogy in the southern South China Sea slope were controlled by varying degrees of reworking on the Sunda Shelf, as well as climatically modulated sediment supply from the Mekong River and southern tropical islands over the last 22.0 ka BP.

  14. Long-term Variability of NorthWest African coastal upwelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wade, Malick; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belen; Lazar, Alban

    2014-05-01

    The NorthWest African sea surface temperature variability can be due to changes in the coastal upwelling system, which in turn can be due to alterations in local winds, global winds induced by teleconnections and propagation of waves from wind burst in remote regions. The two last processes could be due in turn to changes in the sea surface temperature in extended regions remote from the upwelling region, as changes in Pacific SSTs associated with ENSO, or in the Equatorial Atlantic SSTs. This work demonstrates that the whole signal cannot be explained by local wind/Ekman pumping and large scale winds induced by teleconnections play an important role. Using observational data of SSTs and winds from atmospheric reanalysis, and applying different statistical technics, as correlation analysis, filtering and discriminant analysis, the different influences and its stationarity along the observational period are tested pointing to the non stationarity of El Niño influence in FMA and to other possible predictors influencing in the region.

  15. Surface Ozone Variability and Trends over the South African Highveld from 1990 to 2007

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balashov, Nikolay V.; Thompson, Anne M.; Piketh, Stuart J.; Langerman, Kristy E.

    2014-01-01

    Surface ozone is a secondary air pollutant formed from reactions between nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) and volatile organic compounds in the presence of sunlight. In this work we examine effects of the climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and NOx variability on surface ozone from 1990 to 2007 over the South African Highveld, a heavily populated region in South Africa with numerous industrial facilities. Over summer and autumn (December-May) on the Highveld, El Niño, as signified by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the central Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with drier and warmer than normal conditions favoring ozone formation. Conversely, La Niña, or negative SST anomalies over the central Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with cloudier and above normal rainfall conditions, hindering ozone production. We use a generalized regression model to identify any linear dependence that the Highveld ozone, measured at five air quality monitoring stations, may have on ENSO and NOx. Our results indicate that four out of the five stations exhibit a statistically significant sensitivity to ENSO at some point over the December-May period where El Niño amplifies ozone formation and La Niña reduces ozone formation. Three out of the five stations reveal statistically significant sensitivity to NOx variability, primarily in winter and spring. Accounting for ENSO and NOx effects throughout the study period of 18 years, two stations exhibit statistically significant negative ozone trends in spring, one station displays a statistically significant positive trend in August, and two stations show no statistically significant change in surface ozone.

  16. Variable Production of African American English across Oracy and Literacy Contexts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Connie A.; Craig, Holly K.; Washington, Julie A.

    2004-01-01

    Many African American students produce African American English (AAE) features that are contrastive to Standard American English (SAE). The AAE-speaking child who is able to dialect shift, that is, to speak SAE across literacy contexts, likely will perform better academically than the student who is not able to dialect shift. Method: This…

  17. Interdecadal variability of El Niño onset and its impact on monsoon systems over areas encircling the Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Jiaxi; Xu, Jianjun; Guan, Zhaoyong; Powell, Alfred M.

    2016-10-01

    Based on previous study by Xu and Chan (J Clim 14:418-433, 2001), two types of El Niño distinguished by the onset time, a Spring (SP) type and a Summer (SU) type, have been investigated from 1871 through 2011. As can be classified by the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomaly into the Warm Pool (WP) and Cold Tongue (CT) El Niño, the temporal features of the CT are dominated by the SP events whereas the SU events mostly display the spatial pattern of WP or Mixed events. The approximate 140-year data analysis shows that the frequency of SP events tends to increase in the most recent 30 years (1980-2009) while the SU events show very strong activity in the beginning of the twentieth century (1900-1929), which are closely associated with the decadal changes in oceanic and atmospheric background conditions. The air-sea processes indicate that the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between tropical and extratropical Pacific Ocean on decadal time scales is related to the sea level pressure distribution, which tends to produce wind anomalies. The wind anomalies in turn affect the SST anomalies on inter-annual time scales over the equatorial areas and finally result in the early onset of El Niño in SP time or late onset of El Nino in SU time. A spring onset El Niño favors a Kelvin wave that propagates across the basin and a summer onset favors a Kelvin wave that does not traverse the basin or the related effects are not strong enough. The early or late onset of El Niño significantly impacts the precipitation distribution correlated with the monsoon systems including the Asian-Australian monsoon and North-South American monsoon. The El Niño-monsoon relationship is modulated by decadal changes in atmospheric and oceanic background conditions. The precipitation in the monsoonal area circling the Pacific Ocean exhibits characteristic quasi-biennial variations that are closely associated with the onset time of El Niño events, especially with

  18. Do Birds of a Feather Flock Together? The Variable Bases for African American, Asian American, and European American Adolescents' Selection of Similar Friends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hamm, Jill V.

    2000-01-01

    Examined variability in adolescent-friend similarity in African American, Asian American, and European American adolescents. Found greatest similarity for substance use, modest for academic orientation, and low for ethnic identity. Found that compared with other groups, African Americans chose friends who were less similar in academic orientation…

  19. The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment: A New Challenge to Monsoon Climate Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2008-01-01

    Aerosol and monsoon related droughts and floods are two of the most serious environmental hazards confronting more than 60% of the population of the world living in the Asian monsoon countries. In recent years, thanks to improved satellite and in-situ observations, and better models, great strides have been made in aerosol, and monsoon research respectively. There is now a growing body of evidence suggesting that interaction of aerosol forcing with water cycle dynamics in monsoon regions may substantially alter the redistribution of energy at the earth surface and in the atmosphere, and therefore significantly impact monsoon rainfall variability and long term trends. In this talk, I will describe issues related to societal needs, scientific background, and challenges in studies of aerosol-water cycle interaction in Asian monsoon regions. As a first step towards addressing these issues, the authors call for an integrated observation and modeling research approach aimed at the interactions between aerosol chemistry and radiative effects and monsoon dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. A Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is proposed for 2007-2011, with an enhanced observation period during 2008-09, encompassing diverse arrays of observations from surface, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites of physical and chemical properties of aerosols, long range aerosol transport as well as meteorological and oceanographic parameters in the Indo-Pacific Asian monsoon region. JAMEX will leverage on coordination among many ongoing and planned national programs on aerosols and monsoon research in China, India, Japan, Nepal, Italy, US, as well as international research programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

  20. Paleoenvironmental evolution and Asian monsoon variability on the southern Tibetan Plateau during the late Quaternary: A comparison of two lake records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Börner, Nicole; Gifty Akita, Lailah; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Plessen, Birgit; Frenzel, Peter; Zhu, Liping; Schwalb, Antje

    2016-04-01

    The Tibetan Plateau affects the global atmospheric circulation and is thus a key region to study the Asian monsoon system. It is also one of the most sensitive areas to global climate change as, for example, the temperature rise is twice the global average (0.4°C per decade [1]). To understand the recent climate change and predict future climate scenarios it is necessary to investigate past climate changes. The comparison of high-resolution multi-proxy records from Nam Co (4719 m a.s.l., 30°40'N, 90°50'E) and Tangra Yumco (4549 m a.s.l., 31°13'N, 86°43'E) aims to infer long term variations in strength and extent of the Asian monsoon system on the southern Tibetan Plateau. Multi-proxy analysis, including the oxygen and carbon isotope signatures of bulk sediments and the chemical composition of ostracod shells (stable isotopes, trace elements), were carried out on two long cores (10.4 m and 11.5 m), covering the past 24,000 years and 18,000 years, respectively, in order to reconstruct lake level changes and related environmental parameters, i.e. salinity, temperature and productivity. The records from Nam Co and Tangra Yumco show high similarity throughout the late Quaternary with small temporal differences in onset and duration of climatic changes. The Last Glacial Maximum is dominated by dry and cold conditions and is followed by gradually increasing temperatures and moisture, only interrupted by a dry phase, which coincides with the "Heinrich 1 event" in the North Atlantic region. A significant transition to wetter conditions and rising lake levels is indicated around 15,500 cal years BP, suggesting a strengthening of summer monsoon precipitation. The Bølling/Allerød is characterized by increased meltwater input, followed by cold and arid conditions during the Younger Dryas. The early Holocene is marked by increasing temperatures and precipitation, being the wettest period within our record, characterized by the highest lake levels, lake stratification and

  1. Exploring Pacific Climate Variability and Its Impacts on East African Water Resources and Food Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C. C.; Hoerling, M. P.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.; Verdin, J. P.; Eilerts, G.

    2014-12-01

    In 8 out the past 15 boreal springs (1999, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2013), substantial parts of eastern East Africa experienced very low boreal spring rains. These rainfall deficits have triggered widespread food insecurity, and even contributed to the outbreak of famine conditions in Somalia in 2011. At both seasonal and decadal time scales, new science supported by the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network seeks to understand the mechanisms producing these droughts. We present research suggesting that the ultimate and proximate causes of these increases in aridity are i) stronger equatorial Pacific SST gradients and ii) associated increases in the strength of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation. Using observations and new modeling ensembles, we explore the relative contributions of Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) and global warming under warm and cold east Pacific Ocean states. This question is addressed in two ways: by using atmospheric GCMs forced with full and ENSO-only SSTs, and ii) by decomposing coupled ocean-atmosphere climate simulations into PDV and non-PDV components. These analyses allow us to explore the Walker circulation's sensitivity to climate change under various PDV states, and inform a tentative bracketing of 2030 climate conditions. We conclude by discussing links to East African development. Regions of high rainfall sensitivity are delineated and intersected with recent changes in population and land cover/land use. The interaction of elevation and climate is shown to create climatically secure regions that are likely to remain viable even under drier and warmer conditions; such regions may be logical targets for agricultural intensification. Conversely, arid low elevation regions are likely to experience substantial temperature impacts. Continued expansion into these areas may effectively create more 'drought' even if rainfall increases.

  2. Anxiety Disorders in Caucasian and African American Children: A Comparison of Clinical Characteristics, Treatment Process Variables, and Treatment Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Gordon-Hollingsworth, Arlene T.; Becker, Emily M.; Keeton, Courtney; Compton, Scott N.; Birmaher, Boris B.; Sakolsky, Dara J.; Piacentini, John; Albano, Anne M.; Kendall, Philip C.; Suveg, Cynthia M.; March, John S.

    2014-01-01

    This study examined racial differences in anxious youth using data from the Child/Adolescent Anxiety Multimodal Study (CAMS) [1]. Specifically, the study aims addressed whether African American (n = 44) versus Caucasian (n = 359) children varied on (1) baseline clinical characteristics, (2) treatment process variables, and (3) treatment outcomes. Participants were ages 7–17 and met DSM-IV-TR criteria for generalized anxiety disorder, social phobia, and/or separation anxiety disorder. Baseline data, as well as outcome data at 12 and 24 weeks, were obtained by independent evaluators. Weekly treatment process variables were collected by therapists. Results indicated no racial differences on baseline clinical characteristics. However, African American participants attended fewer psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy sessions, and were rated by therapists as less involved and compliant, in addition to showing lower mastery of CBT. Once these and other demographic factors were accounted for, race was not a significant predictor of response, remission, or relapse. Implications of these findings suggest African American and Caucasian youth are more similar than different with respect to the manifestations of anxiety and differences in outcomes are likely due to treatment barriers to session attendance and therapist engagement. PMID:25293650

  3. Variables associated with obesity among African-American women in Omaha.

    PubMed

    Blanchard, Shirley A

    2009-01-01

    Obesity is a health disparity related to environmental, social, and physical health issues, including ethnicity, education, and gender. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship among obesity, age, education, and socioeconomic status and the relationship between obesity and depression among African-American women living in Omaha, Nebraska. A convenience sample of 378 African-American women completed the African-American Female Health Survey, which included the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale. Body mass index (BMI) was used to measure obesity. Results indicated that 87% of the women were overweight; mean BMI was 32.78 with high cardiovascular disease risks. There was a statistically significant and positive relationship between depression and BMI (r = .201, p < .01). Occupational therapists may provide primary, secondary, and tertiary intervention through culturally relevant and meaningful health education programs.

  4. Variability in Vertical Profiles of Water Vapor Associated with African Aerosol over the Tropical Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J.; Zhang, C.; Prospero, J. M.

    2007-12-01

    We used four years (2003-2006) of MODIS aerosol optical depth and concurrent AIRS profiled water vapor to explore how the vertical distribution of water vapor may systematically change with outbreaks of African aerosol over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The first step was to look for a relationship in the Barbados region using in-situ Barbados dust record and the profiled relative humidity from meteorological soundings. We extended the study to the synoptic scale in the West Indies using the MODIS and AIRS products. In the tropical Atlantic, preliminary results indicate that water vapor at 850-1000 hPa is significantly less in July on dusty days than clean days over the northeastern tropical Atlantic [5-25N, 30-20W] where African dust is predominant. In contrast, over the southeastern tropical Atlantic [15S-0, 5W-10E], where African biomass burning smoke prevails, water vapor at 600-1000 hPa is significantly higher in August on smoky days than clean days. Additionally, in January when African mixed aerosol (dust and smoke) is anomalously high over the equatorial eastern tropical Atlantic [5S-5N, 15W-5E], less water vapor is observed at two levels: 925-1000 hPa and 500-600 hPa. It is hypothesized that these results are associated with the non-hygroscopic nature of African dust, the hygroscopic properties of African smoke, and their transport pathways over the tropical Atlantic. These results are useful in the design and diagnostics of model simulations of climate effects of aerosols such as aerosol related precipitation change.

  5. Seasonal variability of chlorophyll-a and oceanographic conditions in Sabah waters in relation to Asian monsoon--a remote sensing study.

    PubMed

    Abdul-Hadi, Alaa; Mansor, Shattri; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Tan, C K

    2013-05-01

    A study was conducted to investigate the influence of Asian monsoon on chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) content in Sabah waters and to identify the related oceanographic conditions that caused phytoplankton blooms at the eastern and western coasts of Sabah, Malaysia. A series of remote sensing measurements including surface Chl-a, sea surface temperature, sea surface height anomaly, wind speed, wind stress curl, and Ekman pumping were analyzed to study the oceanographic conditions that lead to large-scale nutrients enrichment in the surface layer. The results showed that the Chl-a content increased at the northwest coast from December to April due to strong northeasterly wind and coastal upwelling in Kota Kinabalu water. The southwest coast (Labuan water) maintained high concentrations throughout the year due to the effect of Padas River discharge during the rainy season and the changing direction of Baram River plume during the northeast monsoon (NEM). However, with the continuous supply of nutrients from the upwelling area, the high Chl-a batches were maintained at the offshore water off Labuan for a longer time during NEM. On the other side, the northeast coast illustrated a high Chl-a in Sandakan water during NEM, whereas the northern tip off Kudat did not show a pronounced change throughout the year. The southeast coast (Tawau water) was highly influenced by the direction of the surface water transport between the Sulu and Sulawesi Seas and the prevailing surface currents. The study demonstrates the presence of seasonal phytoplankton blooms in Sabah waters which will aid in forecasting the possible biological response and could further assist in marine resource managements. PMID:22930185

  6. Seasonal variability of chlorophyll-a and oceanographic conditions in Sabah waters in relation to Asian monsoon--a remote sensing study.

    PubMed

    Abdul-Hadi, Alaa; Mansor, Shattri; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Tan, C K

    2013-05-01

    A study was conducted to investigate the influence of Asian monsoon on chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) content in Sabah waters and to identify the related oceanographic conditions that caused phytoplankton blooms at the eastern and western coasts of Sabah, Malaysia. A series of remote sensing measurements including surface Chl-a, sea surface temperature, sea surface height anomaly, wind speed, wind stress curl, and Ekman pumping were analyzed to study the oceanographic conditions that lead to large-scale nutrients enrichment in the surface layer. The results showed that the Chl-a content increased at the northwest coast from December to April due to strong northeasterly wind and coastal upwelling in Kota Kinabalu water. The southwest coast (Labuan water) maintained high concentrations throughout the year due to the effect of Padas River discharge during the rainy season and the changing direction of Baram River plume during the northeast monsoon (NEM). However, with the continuous supply of nutrients from the upwelling area, the high Chl-a batches were maintained at the offshore water off Labuan for a longer time during NEM. On the other side, the northeast coast illustrated a high Chl-a in Sandakan water during NEM, whereas the northern tip off Kudat did not show a pronounced change throughout the year. The southeast coast (Tawau water) was highly influenced by the direction of the surface water transport between the Sulu and Sulawesi Seas and the prevailing surface currents. The study demonstrates the presence of seasonal phytoplankton blooms in Sabah waters which will aid in forecasting the possible biological response and could further assist in marine resource managements.

  7. Stable isotopes provide independent support for the use of mesowear variables for inferring diets in African antelopes.

    PubMed

    Louys, Julien; Ditchfield, Peter; Meloro, Carlo; Elton, Sarah; Bishop, Laura C

    2012-11-01

    We examine the relationship between mesowear variables and carbon and nitrogen isotopes in 16 species of African antelope (Mammalia: Bovidae). We show significant differences in carbon and nitrogen isotope values between individuals exhibiting sharp versus round cusps, and high versus low occlusal relief. We show significant correlations between mesowear variables and both carbon and nitrogen isotopes. We find significant correlations between mesowear score and nitrogen, but not carbon isotopes. Finally, we find no significant correlations between hypsodonty index and either isotope examined. Our results provide strong support for the use of mesowear variables in palaeodietary reconstructions of antelopes. Our results further suggest that for the antelopes examined here, mesowear signals are a direct result of diet, while hyposodonty may be the result of phylogenetic legacy.

  8. Predictability of global monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saha, Subodh Kumar; Sujith, K.; Pokhrel, Samir; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Hazra, Anupam

    2016-09-01

    This study evaluates the actual and potential prediction skill of the global monsoon rainfall using hindcast simulations by NCEP CFSv2 at zero to three lead forecast months (L0-L3). It is shown that the model has moderate skill in global monsoon rainfall (GMR) prediction, where the boreal summer monsoon rainfall forecast is more skillful than that of the austral summer. In general, the prediction skill of the GMR (actual and potential) increases with the decrease in lead forecast time, which is true for the all major regional monsoons, except the Australian monsoon. Over the Australian monsoon region, both actual and potential prediction skills in rainfall increase with increase in lead forecast. The forecast skill of tropical SST during austral summer is a maximum at 3 months lead forecast (i.e. July initial conditions) and that is associated with spring predictability barrier. Using partial least square (PLS) regression method, it is shown that the major predictor (first latent vector) of the boreal and austral summer monsoon rainfall variability is ENSO, and the influence of ENSO on rainfall variability is much stronger in the model as compared to the observation. The second PLS regression mode is associated with the non-ENSO variability like tropical Atlantic, Indian, subtropical northwest Pacific Ocean variability, midlatitude interactions etc. However, the model has very poor skill in reproducing the second mode, particularly during the boreal summer monsoon season. It is also shown that a significant part of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability is controlled by other than ENSO variability and the model has limited success in capturing that.

  9. Impact of Demographic Variables on African-American Student Athletes' Academic Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reynolds, Lacey; Fisher, Dwalah; Cavil, J. Kenyatta

    2012-01-01

    Since the passage of Proposition 48 (NCAA, 1984), African-American student-athletes entering National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) major colleges and universities have meet new challenges in their future as student-athletes. This major change altered the landscape of the future of college athletics particularly for students of color.…

  10. Variable Use of Features Associated with African American English by Typically Developing Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Janice E.; Pearson, Barbara Zurer

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The well-known decline in the use of African American English (AAE) features by groups of school-aged AAE-speaking children was reexamined for patterns of overt-, zero-, and mixed-marking for individual features and individual speakers. Methods: Seven hundred twenty-nine typically developing children between the ages of 4 and 12--511…

  11. Energetics and monsoon bifurcations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2016-04-01

    Monsoons involve increases in dry static energy (DSE), with primary contributions from increased shortwave radiation and condensation of water vapor, compensated by DSE export via horizontal fluxes in monsoonal circulations. We introduce a simple box-model characterizing evolution of the DSE budget to study nonlinear dynamics of steady-state monsoons. Horizontal fluxes of DSE are stabilizing during monsoons, exporting DSE and hence weakening the monsoonal circulation. By contrast latent heat addition (LHA) due to condensation of water vapor destabilizes, by increasing the DSE budget. These two factors, horizontal DSE fluxes and LHA, are most strongly dependent on the contrast in tropospheric mean temperature between land and ocean. For the steady-state DSE in the box-model to be stable, the DSE flux should depend more strongly on the temperature contrast than LHA; stronger circulation then reduces DSE and thereby restores equilibrium. We present conditions for this to occur. The main focus of the paper is describing conditions for bifurcation behavior of simple models. Previous authors presented a minimal model of abrupt monsoon transitions and argued that such behavior can be related to a positive feedback called the `moisture advection feedback'. However, by accounting for the effect of vertical lapse rate of temperature on the DSE flux, we show that bifurcations are not a generic property of such models despite these fluxes being nonlinear in the temperature contrast. We explain the origin of this behavior and describe conditions for a bifurcation to occur. This is illustrated for the case of the July-mean monsoon over India. The default model with mean parameter estimates does not contain a bifurcation, but the model admits bifurcation as parameters are varied.

  12. Monsoon abrupt change and its dominant factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Qiang; Fu, Conbin

    2010-05-01

    . This precipitation regime shift is in good coincidence with a significant abrupt climate change which has been extensively observed in other regions over the world as well as for other variables. The East Asia summer monsoon's abrupt change mainly result from the SST forcing which derive from pacific ocean and mid-latitude atmospheric circulation pattern's distribution. The abrupt change in late 1990s may be induced by vegetation cover change caused by the anthropogenic activity. Through analysis about Indian summer monsoon, it displays that SST forcing derived from North Atlantic Ocean plays an important role in the abrupt change or regime shift, and further research suggests that although the forcing signals are fairly weak, certain internal feedback in monsoon dynamics may have amplified the weak external forcing. On the other hand, West Africa summer monsoon has also undergone obvious abrupt change, especially in late 1960s, characterised by lasting precipitation decreasing in Sahel region approximately for 30 years. The dominant factors are the vegetation cover change and SST forcing derived from Atlantic Ocean.

  13. Past dynamics of the Australian monsoon: precession, phase and links to the global monsoon concept

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaufort, L.; van der Kaars, S.; Bassinot, F. C.; Moron, V.

    2010-10-01

    Past variations in the dynamics of the Australian monsoon have been estimated from multi-proxy analysis of a core retrieved in the Eastern Banda Sea. Records of coccolith and pollen assemblages, spanning the last 150 000 years, allow reconstruction of past primary production in the Banda Sea, summer moisture availability, and the length of the dry season in northern Australia and southeastern Indonesia. The amount of moisture available during the summer monsoon follows typical glacial/interglacial dynamics with a broad asymmetrical 100-kyr cycle. Primary production and length of the dry season appear to be closely related, given that they follow the precessional cycle with the same phase. This indicates their independence from ice-volume variations. The present inter-annual variability of both parameters is related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which modulates the Australian Winter Monsoon (AWM). The precessional pattern observed in the past dynamics of the AWM is found in ENSO and monsoon records of other regions. A marked shift in the monsoon intensity occurring during the mid Holocene during a period of constant ice volume, suggests that low latitude climatic variation precedes increases in global ice volume. This precessional pattern suggests that a common forcing mechanism underlies low latitude climate dynamics, acting specifically and synchronously on the different monsoon systems.

  14. Past dynamics of the Australian monsoon: precession, phase and links to the global monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaufort, L.; van der Kaars, S.; Bassinot, F. C.; Moron, V.

    2010-06-01

    Past variations in the dynamics of the Australian monsoon have been estimated from multi-proxy analysis of a core retrieved in the Eastern Banda Sea. Records of coccolith and pollen assemblages, spanning the last 150,000 years, allow reconstruction of past primary production in the Banda Sea, summer moisture availability, and the length of the dry season in Northern Australia and Southeastern Indonesia. The amount of moisture available during the summer monsoon follows typical glacial/interglacial dynamics with a broad asymmetrical 100-kyr cycle. Primary production and length of the dry season appear to be closely related, given that they follow the precessional cycle with the same phase (August insolation). This indicates their independence from ice-volume variations. The present inter-annual variability of both parameters is related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which modulates the Australian Winter Monsoon (AWM). The precessional pattern observed in the past dynamics of the AWM is found in ENSO and monsoon records of other regions. A marked shift in the monsoon intensity occurring during the mid Holocene during a period of constant ice volume, suggest that low latitude climatic variation precedes global ice volume. This precessional pattern suggests that a common forcing mechanism underlies low latitude climate dynamics, acting specifically and synchronically on the different monsoon systems.

  15. Comparing the effect of modeled climatic variables on the distribution of African horse sickness in South Africa and Namibia.

    PubMed

    Liebenberg, Danica; van Hamburg, Huib; Piketh, Stuart; Burger, Roelof

    2015-12-01

    Africa horse sickness (AHS) is a lethal disease of horses with a seasonal occurrence that is influenced by environmental conditions that favor the development of Culicoides midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). This study compared and evaluated the relationship of various modeled climatic variables with the distribution and abundance of AHS in South Africa and Namibia. A comprehensive literature review of the historical AHS reported data collected from the Windhoek archives as well as annual reports from the Directorate of Veterinary services in Namibia were conducted. South African AHS reported data were collected from the South African Department of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries. Daily climatic data were extracted for the time period 1993-2011 from the ERA-interim re-analysis dataset. The principal component analysis of the complete dataset indicated a significant statistical difference between Namibia and South Africa for the various climate variables and the outbreaks of AHS. The most influential parameters in the distribution of AHS included humidity, precipitation, evaporation, and minimum temperature. In South Africa, temperature had the most significant effect on the outbreaks of AHS, whereas in Namibia, humidity and precipitation were the main drivers. The maximum AHS cases in South Africa occurred at temperatures of 20-22° C and relative humidity between 50-70%. Furthermore, anthropogenic effects must be taken into account when trying to understand the distribution of AHS.

  16. Comparing the effect of modeled climatic variables on the distribution of African horse sickness in South Africa and Namibia.

    PubMed

    Liebenberg, Danica; van Hamburg, Huib; Piketh, Stuart; Burger, Roelof

    2015-12-01

    Africa horse sickness (AHS) is a lethal disease of horses with a seasonal occurrence that is influenced by environmental conditions that favor the development of Culicoides midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). This study compared and evaluated the relationship of various modeled climatic variables with the distribution and abundance of AHS in South Africa and Namibia. A comprehensive literature review of the historical AHS reported data collected from the Windhoek archives as well as annual reports from the Directorate of Veterinary services in Namibia were conducted. South African AHS reported data were collected from the South African Department of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries. Daily climatic data were extracted for the time period 1993-2011 from the ERA-interim re-analysis dataset. The principal component analysis of the complete dataset indicated a significant statistical difference between Namibia and South Africa for the various climate variables and the outbreaks of AHS. The most influential parameters in the distribution of AHS included humidity, precipitation, evaporation, and minimum temperature. In South Africa, temperature had the most significant effect on the outbreaks of AHS, whereas in Namibia, humidity and precipitation were the main drivers. The maximum AHS cases in South Africa occurred at temperatures of 20-22° C and relative humidity between 50-70%. Furthermore, anthropogenic effects must be taken into account when trying to understand the distribution of AHS. PMID:26611969

  17. Local impacts of Saharan dust on convection and on the monsoon circulation during the pre-onset and the established monsoon periods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavaysse, C.; Flamant, C.; Grabowski, W. W.; Chaboureau, J.

    2012-12-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the local impacts of dust on the West African monsoon circulation. Using different regional models (Meso-NH and WRF), dust schemes have been used to quantify the impacts of dust on convection and on the main components of the West African monsoon, such as the West African Heat Low (WAHL), African Easterly Waves (AEWs), monsoon and Harmatan winds. Two different periods have been simulated, one in 2006, during the AMMA campaign, investigated a 6-day pulsation of the West African heat low (WAHL) in summertime (14 to 20 July), with convective rainfall and dust bursts being observed over the Sahel at the beginning and end of the episode. Three Meso-NH simulations were designed which differed in their dust representation. This study highlights two effects of dust on the WAHL over the Sahara: a so-called direct effect associated with dust radiative heating, which increases the WAHL thickness, and a so called indirect effect that intensifies both the African easterly jet and a related African easterly wave. Using the observation provided by the FENNEC international project in June 2011, a second study has been done to better understand the local impacts of the dust during the pre-onset period, when the dust load in the mid-troposphere appears large. Using WRF simulations in an ensemble system, the sensitivity of the monsoon circulation to direct and indirect effects of the dust have been compared to the sensitivity of the large-scale forcings.

  18. Patterns of population subdivision, gene flow and genetic variability in the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus).

    PubMed

    Girman, D J; Vilà, C; Geffen, E; Creel, S; Mills, M G; McNutt, J W; Ginsberg, J; Kat, P W; Mamiya, K H; Wayne, R K

    2001-07-01

    African wild dogs are large, highly mobile carnivores that are known to disperse over considerable distances and are rare throughout much of their geographical range. Consequently, genetic variation within and differentiation between geographically separated populations is predicted to be minimal. We determined the genetic diversity of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences and microsatellite loci in seven populations of African wild dogs. Analysis of mtDNA nucleotide diversity suggests that, historically, wild dog populations have been small relative to other large carnivores. However, population declines due to recent habitat loss have not caused a dramatic reduction in genetic diversity. We found one historical and eight recent mtDNA genotypes in 280 individuals that defined two highly divergent clades. In contrast to a previous, more limited, mtDNA analysis, sequences from these clades are not geographically restricted to eastern or southern African populations. Rather, we found a large admixture zone spanning populations from Botswana, Zimbabwe and south-eastern Tanzania. Mitochondrial and microsatellite differentiation between populations was significant and unique mtDNA genotypes and alleles characterized the populations. However, gene flow estimates (Nm) based on microsatellite data were generally greater than one migrant per generation. In contrast, gene flow estimates based on the mtDNA control region were lower than expected given differences in the mode of inheritance of mitochondrial and nuclear markers which suggests a male bias in long-distance dispersal.

  19. Autoencoder-based identification of predictors of Indian monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saha, Moumita; Mitra, Pabitra; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2016-10-01

    Prediction of Indian summer monsoon uses a number of climatic variables that are historically known to provide a high skill. However, relationships between predictors and predictand could be complex and also change with time. The present work attempts to use a machine learning technique to identify new predictors for forecasting the Indian monsoon. A neural network-based non-linear dimensionality reduction technique, namely, the sparse autoencoder is used for this purpose. It extracts a number of new predictors that have prediction skills higher than the existing ones. Two non-linear ensemble prediction models of regression tree and bagged decision tree are designed with identified monsoon predictors and are shown to be superior in terms of prediction accuracy. Proposed model shows mean absolute error of 4.5 % in predicting the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Lastly, geographical distribution of the new monsoon predictors and their characteristics are discussed.

  20. Intra-interglacial climate variability from Marine Isotope Stage 15 to the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rachmayani, R.; Prange, M.; Schulz, M.

    2015-07-01

    Using the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) including a dynamic global vegetation model a set of 13 interglacial time slice experiments was carried out to study global climate variability between and within the Quaternary interglaciations of Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 1, 5, 11, 13, and 15. The different effects of obliquity, precession and greenhouse gas forcing on global surface temperature and precipitation fields are illuminated. Several similarities with previous idealized orbital-forcing experiments can be identified. In particular, a significant role of meridional insolation-gradient forcing by obliquity variations in forcing the West African monsoon is found. The sensitivity of the West African monsoon to this obliquity forcing, however, depends on the climatic precession. According to the CCSM3 results, the Indian monsoon is less sensitive to direct obliquity-induced insolation forcing, consistent with the interpretation of proxy records from the Arabian Sea. Moreover, the model results suggest that the two monsoon systems do not always vary in concert, challenging the concept of a global monsoon system at orbital timescales. High obliquity can also explain relatively warm Northern Hemisphere high-latitude summer temperatures despite maximum precession around 495 kyr BP (MIS 13) probably preventing a glacial inception at that time.

  1. The Relationships among Student Characteristic Variables, Student Engagement Variables, and the Academic Performance of African American Male Students at Two-Year Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Redman Mingo, Valarie A.

    2010-01-01

    As the body of research on the experiences of African American males in higher education continues to grow, additional research is needed on the impact of two-year college attendance on African American male students (Flowers, 2006). Since the two-year college system is the "primary portal" to higher education for a number of African American…

  2. The records of terrestrial and marine biomarkers in South China Sea EXP349 Sites U1432C and U1433A, B: Implications for East Asian monsoon variability and paleoceanographic variations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    hyun, Sangmin; kim, Songyi

    2016-04-01

    Marine and terrestrial biomarkers, alkenones and n-alkanes compound, were investigated in sediment taken from the South China Sea (SCS) IODP Sites Exp. U1432C, U1433A and U1433B to evaluate Asian monsoon variability and paleoceanographic variations. Alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SSTalk) from the northern Site (U1432C) ranges from approximately 18.2oC to 28.3oC with an average of 24.4oC (n=65). Estimated SSTalk were slightly higher in the southern Site U1433A than at U1432C. SSTalk in Site U1433A ranges from 24.3oC to 27.4oC with an average 26.1oC (n=32), showing as much as 1.7oC higher SSTs than at U1432C. High concentrations of n-alkanes (nC21-35) are present throughout the Site SC1432C with strong fluctuations in the upper part (average = 496ug/g, n=140). The much higher records at U1433A and U1433B show long-range variations, but the concentration of n-alkanes remains constant below 244mbsf in Site 1433B (less than 200ug/g), suggesting an important change occurred at this horizon, dividing two different environmental domains. These differences in SSTalk and n-alkane concentration between two Sites might not only link with latitudinal location but also the influx of terrestrial biomarker due to the Asian monsoon variability and local oceanographic variations since the last approximately 1.5 Ma. Several indices of Average Chain Length (ACL) and Carbon Preferences Index (ICP) showed large shifts and fluctuations in both Sites. In particular, one of the paleo-plant proxy, Paq, also shows time-dependent large fluctuations in both Sites suggesting long time-scale variations in the flux of terrestrial organic compound as well as paleoclimatic changes in the East Asian area.

  3. Morphodynamics of rivers strongly affected by monsoon precipitation: Review of depositional style and forcing factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plink-Björklund, Piret

    2015-06-01

    Rivers that receive significant amounts of their surface water supply from monsoon precipitation characteristically experience seasonal floods, and display seasonally highly variable discharge, controlled by the monsoon trough passage and its related cyclones. The intense summer rainfall causes high-magnitude floods, whereas rivers only transmit a low base flow during the dry winters. For many rivers in the sub-humid to arid subtropics, bordering the monsoon domain, the monsoon rain is also the main source of surface water recharge. However, such rivers may receive monsoon rain and transmit discharge only during abnormal or strengthened monsoon seasons. This annual discharge variability or range, as compared to the mean annual discharge, distinguishes the monsoonal and subtropical rivers from the rivers in equatorial tropics and temperate perennial precipitation zones, where the annual range is relatively small compared to the annual mean discharge. This review explores the effects of this seasonal and yearly variable rainfall, and the resultant highly peaked discharge pattern on river morphodynamics, and presents a comparison of modern and ancient monsoonal and subtropical river deposits. The field datasets and literature analyses discussed herein provide recognition criteria for monsoon-controlled river deposits, by documenting the diversity of the sedimentary facies, macroforms (bar forms), and architectural elements common in ancient and modern monsoon-controlled rivers. The review demonstrates that seasonal and inter-annual precipitation range is a key control on river morphodynamics, and resultant sedimentary facies characteristics, rather than the specific climate zone or average annual precipitation.

  4. Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vrieling, Anton; deBeurs, K. M.; Brown, Molly E.

    2011-01-01

    Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic.

  5. Exploratory Analysis of the Effects of Anxiety on Specific Quantifiable Variables of African-American High School Students Enrolled in Advanced Academics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    James, Carmela N.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the attrition rate of the African American high school student enrolled in advanced academics by looking at the effects of specific quantifiable variables on state-trait anxiety scores. More specifically, this study was concerned with the influence of demographic and school related factors on the…

  6. Study of aerosol transport through precipitation chemistry over Arabian Sea during winter and summer monsoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Praveen, P. S.; Rao, P. S. P.; Safai, P. D.; Devara, P. C. S.; Chate, D. M.; Ali, K.; Momin, G. A.

    Precipitation samples over the Arabian Sea collected during Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX) in 2002-2003 were examined for major water soluble components and acidity of aerosols during the period of winter and summer monsoon seasons. The pH of rain water was alkaline during summer monsoon and acidic during winter monsoon. Summer monsoon precipitation showed dominance of sea-salt components (˜90%) and significant amounts of non-sea salt (nss) Ca 2+ and SO 42-. Winter monsoon precipitation samples showed higher concentration of NO 3- and NH 4+ compared to that of summer monsoon, indicating more influence of anthropogenic sources. The rain water data is interpreted in terms of long-range transport and background pollution. In summer monsoon, air masses passing over the north African and Gulf continents which may be carrying nss components are advected towards the observational location. Also, prevailing strong southwesterly winds at surface level produced sea-salt aerosols which led to high sea-salt contribution in precipitation. While in winter monsoon, it was observed that, air masses coming from Asian region towards observational location carry more pollutants like NO 3-and nss SO 42- that acidify the precipitation.

  7. South Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 GCMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.; Touma, D. E.

    2012-12-01

    Many Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) suffered from substantial biases in their simulation of processes that govern summer monsoon dynamics in South Asia, leading to uncertainties in the simulation of monsoon response to future increases in greenhouse forcing. In order to test the ability of the current generation of GCMs that are part of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the simulation of South Asian summer monsoon dynamics, we analyze the outputs from their historic simulations that correspond to 1970-1999 period. The analyses include the comparison of multiple monsoon indices including those representing monsoon onset, local circulations and global teleconnections, at seasonal, intra-seasonal and inter-annual time scales. We find that most of the GCMs are unable to simulate the timing of the summer monsoon onset over land, leading to substantial biases in seasonal precipitation means and variability, and intra-seasonal precipitation distribution. These errors are partly due to the fact that the majority of the GCMs exhibit a shift in the annual monsoon cycle with most of them exhibiting a precipitation peak in August in contrast to the observed peak in July, and that most of the GCMs substantially underestimate the strength of meridional troposhepric temperature gradient and vertical easterly shear during the summer season. We also find many models with low skill in the simulation of intra-seasonal temperature variability, and monsoon connection with local Hadley circulation and ENSO variability. These results have important implications for the reliability of future climate projections and impact assessments over South Asia.

  8. Transient coupling relationships of the Holocene Australian monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McRobie, F. H.; Stemler, T.; Wyrwoll, K.-H.

    2015-08-01

    The northwest Australian summer monsoon owes a notable degree of its interannual variability to interactions with other regional monsoon systems. Therefore, changes in the nature of these relationships may contribute to variability in monsoon strength over longer time scales. Previous attempts to evaluate how proxy records from the Indonesian-Australian monsoon region correspond to other records from the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions, as well as to El Niño-related proxy records, have been qualitative, relying on 'curve-fitting' methods. Here, we seek a quantitative approach for identifying coupling relationships between paleoclimate proxy records, employing statistical techniques to compute the interdependence of two paleoclimate time series. We verify the use of complex networks to identify coupling relationships between modern climate indices. This method is then extended to a set of paleoclimate proxy records from the Asian, Australasian and South American regions spanning the past 9000 years. The resulting networks demonstrate the existence of coupling relationships between regional monsoon systems on millennial time scales, but also highlight the transient nature of teleconnections during this period. In the context of the northwest Australian summer monsoon, we recognise a shift in coupling relationships from strong interhemispheric links with East Asian and ITCZ-related proxy records in the mid-Holocene to significantly weaker coupling in the later Holocene. Although the identified links cannot explain the underlying physical processes leading to coupling between regional monsoon systems, this method provides a step towards understanding the role that changes in teleconnections play in millennial-to orbital-scale climate variability.

  9. Sampling strategies and variability in fruit pulp micronutrient contents of west and central african bananas and plantains (Musa species).

    PubMed

    Davey, Mark W; Stals, Ellen; Ngoh-Newilah, Gérard; Tomekpe, Kodjo; Lusty, Charlotte; Markham, Richard; Swennen, Rony; Keulemans, Johan

    2007-04-01

    The variability in fruit micronutrient contents in a selection of Central and West African Musa varieties cultivated under standardized field conditions was studied. Analysis of the within-fruit, within-hand, and within-plant as well as the between-plant variations demonstrated that both provitamin A carotenoids (pVACs) and mineral micronutrient (Fe, Zn) contents vary significantly across all sample groups. The variations in pVACs contents appear to be at least partly related to differences in the developmental status of the fruit, but the observed trends were genotype-specific. The mean pVACs concentrations per genotype indicated that there is substantial genetic variation in the fruit pVACs contents between Musa cultivars, with orange-fleshed plantain varieties (AAB) having generally higher fruit pVACs contents than dessert bananas (AAA). It was not possible to identify consistent trends between the sampling position and fruit Fe/Zn contents. Once the within-bunch micronutrient variability has been accounted for, the mean variations in fruit micronutrient contents between individual plants of a variety generally fell to within acceptable limits. Results are discussed within the framework of standardizing sampling and developing strategies to screen for the nutritional values of new and existing Musa varieties. PMID:17346062

  10. Sampling strategies and variability in fruit pulp micronutrient contents of west and central african bananas and plantains (Musa species).

    PubMed

    Davey, Mark W; Stals, Ellen; Ngoh-Newilah, Gérard; Tomekpe, Kodjo; Lusty, Charlotte; Markham, Richard; Swennen, Rony; Keulemans, Johan

    2007-04-01

    The variability in fruit micronutrient contents in a selection of Central and West African Musa varieties cultivated under standardized field conditions was studied. Analysis of the within-fruit, within-hand, and within-plant as well as the between-plant variations demonstrated that both provitamin A carotenoids (pVACs) and mineral micronutrient (Fe, Zn) contents vary significantly across all sample groups. The variations in pVACs contents appear to be at least partly related to differences in the developmental status of the fruit, but the observed trends were genotype-specific. The mean pVACs concentrations per genotype indicated that there is substantial genetic variation in the fruit pVACs contents between Musa cultivars, with orange-fleshed plantain varieties (AAB) having generally higher fruit pVACs contents than dessert bananas (AAA). It was not possible to identify consistent trends between the sampling position and fruit Fe/Zn contents. Once the within-bunch micronutrient variability has been accounted for, the mean variations in fruit micronutrient contents between individual plants of a variety generally fell to within acceptable limits. Results are discussed within the framework of standardizing sampling and developing strategies to screen for the nutritional values of new and existing Musa varieties.

  11. The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

    2012-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

  12. Variability of the Tsushima Warm Current during the Pleistocene and its relationship with the evolution of the East Asian Monsoon. Preliminary results from IODP Expedition 346 (Sites U1427 and U1428/29) based on benthic ostracod assemblages.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bassetti, M. A.; Alvarez Zarikian, C. A.; Toucanne, S.; Yasuhara, M.; Holbourn, A. E.; Sagawa, T.; Tada, R.; Murray, R. W.

    2014-12-01

    The semi-enclosed marginal sea bordered by the Eurasian continent, the Korean peninsula and the Japanese Islands has an average depth of 1350 m and is connected with other marginal seas in the region by shallow and narrow straits. At present, the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC), a branch of the Kuroshio Current, is the only warm current flowing into the marginal sea west of Japan. The TWC carries both subtropical water originating from the North Pacific and fresher runoff water derived from East China Sea continental shelf. The northerly flow of the TWC through the shallow Tsushima Straits is ultimately controlled by relative sea level variations over time. IODP Expedition 346 Sites U1427 and U1428/29 are ideally located to record changes in (i) the intensity of the influx of the TWC, and (ii) the intermediate ventilation of the marginal sea over the last million years. The Japan Sea Intermediate Water (JSIW) corresponds to a vertical salinity minimum, found below the TWC, between 200 and 400-500 m water depth. The JSIW shows a relatively high oxygen concentration, related to the deep water convection in winter and linked to fresh water supply during winter monsoon intervals. Based on recent observations, it is thought during glacial and interglacial conditions, and millennial scale climate cycles the intensity of deep and intermediate water currents varied but the mechanisms of such variations are not fully known. Microfossil faunal proxies can be used for tracking bottom environmental conditions related to variability of the bottom water circulation intensity. Here, we present preliminary results obtained using ostracods (benthic microcrustaceans) that are abundant in the sedimentary sequences recovered at Sites U1427 and U1428/29, and are known to react sensitively to changes in water masses physico-chemical parameters. In particular, the variability of the genus Krithe through time is correlated with the sortable silt (carbonate-free, 10-63 µm sediment size

  13. An assessment of improvements in global monsoon precipitation simulation in FGOALS-s2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Lixia; Zhou, Tianjun

    2014-01-01

    The performance of Version 2 of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS-s2) in simulating global monsoon precipitation (GMP) was evaluated. Compared with FGOALS-s1, higher skill in simulating the annual modes of climatological tropical precipitation and interannual variations of GMP are seen in FGOALS-s2. The simulated domains of the northwestern Pacific monsoon (NWPM) and North American monsoon are smaller than in FGOALS-s1. The main deficiency of FGOALS-s2 is that the NWPM has a weaker monsoon mode and stronger negative pattern in spring-fall asymmetric mode. The smaller NWPM domain in FGOALS-s2 is due to its simulated colder SST over the western Pacific warm pool. The relationship between ENSO and GMP is simulated reasonably by FGOALS-s2. However, the simulated precipitation anomaly over the South African monsoon region-South Indian Ocean during La Niña years is opposite to the observation. This results mainly from weaker warm SST anomaly over the maritime continent during La Niña years, leading to stronger upper-troposphere (lower-troposphere) divergence (convergence) over the Indian Ocean, and artificial vertical ascent (descent) over the Southwest Indian Ocean (South African monsoon region), inducing local excessive (deficient) rainfall. Comparison between the historical and pre-industrial simulations indicated that global land monsoon precipitation changes from 1901 to the 1970s were caused by internal variation of climate system. External forcing may have contributed to the increasing trend of the Australian monsoon since the 1980s. Finally, it shows that global warming could enhance GMP, especially over the northern hemispheric ocean monsoon and southern hemispheric land monsoon.

  14. CLUSTERING SOUTH AFRICAN HOUSEHOLDS BASED ON THEIR ASSET STATUS USING LATENT VARIABLE MODELS

    PubMed Central

    McParland, Damien; Gormley, Isobel Claire; McCormick, Tyler H.; Clark, Samuel J.; Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa Whiteson; Collinson, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System has since 2001 conducted a biannual household asset survey in order to quantify household socio-economic status (SES) in a rural population living in northeast South Africa. The survey contains binary, ordinal and nominal items. In the absence of income or expenditure data, the SES landscape in the study population is explored and described by clustering the households into homogeneous groups based on their asset status. A model-based approach to clustering the Agincourt households, based on latent variable models, is proposed. In the case of modeling binary or ordinal items, item response theory models are employed. For nominal survey items, a factor analysis model, similar in nature to a multinomial probit model, is used. Both model types have an underlying latent variable structure—this similarity is exploited and the models are combined to produce a hybrid model capable of handling mixed data types. Further, a mixture of the hybrid models is considered to provide clustering capabilities within the context of mixed binary, ordinal and nominal response data. The proposed model is termed a mixture of factor analyzers for mixed data (MFA-MD). The MFA-MD model is applied to the survey data to cluster the Agincourt households into homogeneous groups. The model is estimated within the Bayesian paradigm, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Intuitive groupings result, providing insight to the different socio-economic strata within the Agincourt region. PMID:25485026

  15. Spatial and temporal variability of carbon fluxes in African ecosystems - a CarboAfrica synthesis study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kutsch, Werner Leo; Merbold, Lutz; Scholes, Bob

    2010-05-01

    This study reports carbon and water fluxes between the land surface and atmosphere in eleven different ecosystems in Sub-Saharan Africa, as measured using eddy covariance (EC) technology. The ecosystems for which data were available ranged in mean annual rainfall from 320mm (Sudan) to 1150mm (Republic of Congo) and include a spectrum of land cover types (savannas, woodlands, croplands and grasslands). Data were analysed across the network, in order to understand the driving factors for ecosystem respiration and carbon assimilation, and to reveal the different water use strategies in these highly seasonal environments. In addition to the spatial pattern, the temporal pattern that connects carbon fluxes with water relations in savanna ecosystems were studied in detail in a savanna ecosystem at Kruger National Park, South Africa and a miombo woodland in Western Zambia. Temporal variability: The regulation of canopy conductance was temporally changing in two ways: changes due to phenology during the course of the growing season and short-term (hours to days) acclimation to soil water conditions. The most constant parameter was water use efficiency. It was influenced by humidity (VPD) during the day, but the VPD response curve of water usage only changed slightly during the course of the growing season, and decreased by about 30% during the transition from wet to dry season. The regulation of canopy conductance and photosynthetic capacity were closely related. This observation meets recent leaf-level findings that stomatal closure triggers down-regulation of photosynthesis during drought. Our results may show the effects of these processes on the ecosystem scale. Spatial variability: The same pattern was found at large spatial scales. Maximum carbon assimilation rates were highly correlated with mean annual rainfall (r2=0.74) and were also positively correlated with satellite-derived fAPAR. Ecosystem respiration was dependent on temperature at all sites, and was

  16. Desert Dust and Monsoon Rain

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2014-01-01

    For centuries, inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent have know that heavy dust events brought on by strong winds occur frequently in the pre-monsoon season, before the onset of heavy rain. Yet scientists have never seriously considered the possibility that natural dust can affect monsoon rainfall. Up to now, most studies of the impacts of aerosols on Indian monsoon rainfall have focused on anthropogenic aerosols in the context of climate change. However, a few recent studies have show that aerosols from antropogenic and natural sources over the Indian subcontinent may affect the transition from break to active monsoon phases on short timescales of days to weeks. Writing in Nature Geoscience, Vinoj and colleagues describe how they have shown that desert dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and West Asia can strenghten the summer monsoon over the Indial subcontinent in a matter of days.

  17. Fluctuations in the deficiency of the summer monsoon over India, and their effect on economy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mooley, D. A.; Parthasarathy, B.

    1982-04-01

    To assess the deficiency in the activity of the monsoon over India during the season, an index for the country based on the percentage area with a specified percentage seasonal rainfall deficiency and termed the Monsoon Deficiency Index (MDI), has been utilized. The statistical properties of the MDI series for the period 1871 1978 have been examined. The series which can be taken to be homogeneous and random has a high variability. MDI is generally not observed to persist at a high level; a high value is invariably followed by a low value. The deficiency over the country is considered as largescale and is termed as monsoon failure when the MDI value equals or exceeds the nineth decile viz. 40, of the mixed gamma distribution fitted to the MDI series. Using this criterion, the years of monsoon failure have been identified. The monsoon failures are found to occur randomly. The effect of monsoon deficiency on the Indian economy has been assessed.

  18. What is the timing of orbital-scale monsoon changes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruddiman, William F.

    2006-04-01

    A major (but little noted) divergence of opinion has developed among climate scientists over the orbital-scale periodicity and phasing of tropical monsoon variations. Kutzbach (1981. Monsoon climate of the early Holocene: climate experiment with Earth's orbital parameters for 9000 years ago. Science 214, 59-61) proposed that monsoons are driven by northern summer insolation at the precession period, but Clemens and Prell (1990. Late Pleistocene variability of Arabian Sea summer monsoon winds and continental aridity: eolian records from the lithogenic component of deep-sea sediments. Paleoceanography 5, 109-145; 2003. A 350,000-year summer-monsoon multi-proxy stack from the Owen Ridge, Northern Arabian Sea. Marine Geology 201, 35-51) inferred a more complicated response tied to latent heat transfer from the Southern Hemisphere. Because tropical monsoons affect climate over a vast area, resolving this divergence is an important task for the climate community. The purpose of this note is to highlight definitive evidence from high-resolution dating of speleothem calcite that provides unambiguous support for the Kutzbach hypothesis.

  19. Trends and Variability in Pastoral Resources in the West African Sahel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanan, N. P.

    2014-12-01

    The geography of water and nutrients in the savannas of West Africa has shaped the development of a system of migratory cattle movements ("transhumance") in which herds travel north during the rainy season to graze the nutritious grasslands of the Sahel and return south in the dry season to graze in fallow lands and on agricultural residue. Cattle in this system gain most of their body mass while grazing in the Sahel and frequently lose mass on their dry season range. The Sahel is, therefore, at the heart of extensive livestock production systems in West Africa. However, there is increasing concern regarding how climate change will impact the region, while human population growth and economic development require increased agricultural and livestock production. The future for pastoral production systems in West Africa is, therefore, uncertain. This presentation combines remote sensing of vegetation structure and phenology with a watershed-scale tree-grass ecohydrology model, to explore how key resources for Sahelian pastoralist communities (forage and surface water for livestock, woody biomass for fuel) respond to climate variability and extreme events, conditioned by human management of grazing, fire and fuel-wood harvest. Mortality of woody species and loss of herbaceous cover during the Sahelian droughts of the 1970's and 1980's significantly perturbed vegetation dynamics and ecohydrological interactions, perturbations from which the region is still recovering. The re-greening and reforestation of the Sahel reported by many authors is, in part, an expression of this recovery. Future trajectories of change in pastoral resources in the Sahel, in particular forage availability and drinking water, are explored using climate change ensembles.

  20. Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979-2008)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Kim, Hyung-Jin; Webster, Peter J.; Yim, So-Young

    2012-09-01

    The global monsoon (GM) is a defining feature of the annual variation of Earth's climate system. Quantifying and understanding the present-day monsoon precipitation change are crucial for prediction of its future and reflection of its past. Here we show that regional monsoons are coordinated not only by external solar forcing but also by internal feedback processes such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). From one monsoon year (May to the next April) to the next, most continental monsoon regions, separated by vast areas of arid trade winds and deserts, vary in a cohesive manner driven by ENSO. The ENSO has tighter regulation on the northern hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) than on the southern hemisphere summer monsoon (SHSM). More notably, the GM precipitation (GMP) has intensified over the past three decades mainly due to the significant upward trend in NHSM. The intensification of the GMP originates primarily from an enhanced east-west thermal contrast in the Pacific Ocean, which is coupled with a rising pressure in the subtropical eastern Pacific and decreasing pressure over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. While this mechanism tends to amplify both the NHSM and SHSM, the stronger (weaker) warming trend in the NH (SH) creates a hemispheric thermal contrast, which favors intensification of the NHSM but weakens the SHSM. The enhanced Pacific zonal thermal contrast is largely a result of natural variability, whilst the enhanced hemispherical thermal contrast is likely due to anthropogenic forcing. We found that the enhanced global summer monsoon not only amplifies the annual cycle of tropical climate but also promotes directly a "wet-gets-wetter" trend pattern and indirectly a "dry-gets-drier" trend pattern through coupling with deserts and trade winds. The mechanisms recognized in this study suggest a way forward for understanding past and future changes of the GM in terms of its driven mechanisms.

  1. Distribution of anthropometric variables and the prevalence of obesity in populations of west African origin: the International Collaborative Study on Hypertension in Blacks (ICSHIB).

    PubMed

    Rotimi, C N; Cooper, R S; Ataman, S L; Osotimehin, B; Kadiri, S; Muna, W; Kingue, S; Fraser, H; McGee, D

    1995-09-01

    A survey of the prevalence of hypertension and associated risk factors including obesity was carried out among persons of West African heritage currently living in societies at different stages of social, economic and technological development. We present here the distribution of several anthropometric variables and the prevalence of obesity in these populations. Using a standard protocol with centralized training of field staff, 7,439 men and women aged 24 to 75 from six multinational sites were recruited and examined. Although men were taller, women were more obese across sites. Body mass index (BMI) and consequently the prevalence of overweight and obesity increased with westernization from rural African subsistence farming communities to suburban Chicago. Average BMI increased with age until about age 54, and then began to decline or at least level off. The mean BMI for African-American men and women was 27.1kg/m2 and 30.8kg/m2, respectively. Men displayed high levels of centripetal fatness, measured as the waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), compared to the women across site. Based on the US Department of Agriculture guidelines, 22.6% and 56.9% of the African-American men and women had elevated WHR. Although account must be taken of the important contribution of an individual's genetic background, this multinational study of persons with similar heritage clearly shows the potent impact of current environmental factors on the distribution and level of obesity.

  2. Transport pathways of peroxyacetyl nitrate in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from different monsoon systems during the summer monsoon season

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fadnavis, S.; Semeniuk, K.; Schultz, M. G.; Mahajan, A.; Pozzoli, L.; Sonbawane, S.; Kiefer, M.

    2014-08-01

    The Asian summer monsoon involves complex transport patterns with large scale redistribution of trace gases in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). We employ the global chemistry-climate model ECHAM5-HAMMOZ in order to evaluate the transport pathways and the contributions of nitrogen oxide reservoir species PAN, NOx, and HNO3 from various monsoon regions, to the UTLS over Southern Asia and vice versa. The model is evaluated with trace gas retrievals from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS-E) and aircraft campaigns during the monsoon season (June-September). There are three regions which contribute substantial pollution to the UTLS during the monsoon: the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), the North American Monsoon (NAM) and the West African monsoon (WAM). However, penetration due to ASM convection is deeper into the UTLS as compared to NAM and WAM outflow. The circulation in these monsoon regions distributes PAN into the tropical latitude belt in the upper troposphere. Remote transport also occurs in the extratropical upper troposphere where westerly winds drive North American and European pollutants eastward to partly merge with the ASM plume. Strong ASM convection transports these remote and regional pollutants into the lower stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere the injected pollutants are transported westward by easterly winds. The intense convective activity in the monsoon regions is associated with lightning generation and thereby the emission of NOy species. This will affect the distribution of PAN in the UTLS. The estimates of lightning produced PAN, HNO3, NOx and ozone obtained from control and lightning-off simulations shows high percentage changes over the regions of convective transport especially equatorial Africa and America and comparatively less over the ASM. This indicates higher anthropogenic pollution transport from the ASM region into the UTLS.

  3. Within-Day Variability of Fatigue and Pain Among African Americans and Non-Hispanic Whites With Osteoarthritis of the Knee

    PubMed Central

    SMITH, DYLAN M.; PARMELEE, PATRICIA A.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Fatigue is common among persons with osteoarthritis (OA), but little is known about racial/ethnic differences in the prevalence, correlates, or dynamics of fatigue in OA. This research therefore used experience sampling methodology (ESM) to examine fatigue and pain at global and momentary levels among African Americans and non-Hispanic whites with OA. Methods Thirty-nine African Americans and 81 non-Hispanic whites with physician-diagnosed knee OA completed a baseline interview and an ESM protocol assessing fatigue, pain, and mood 4 times daily for 7 days. In addition to analyzing basic group differences, multilevel modeling examined within- versus between-subject patterns and correlates of variability in momentary fatigue, controlling for demographics and other potential confounders. Results Both racial groups experienced moderate levels of fatigue; however, there were clear individual differences in both mean fatigue level and variability across momentary assessments. Mean fatigue levels were associated with global pain and depression. Increase in fatigue over the course of the day was much stronger among non-Hispanic whites than African Americans. Momentary fatigue and pain were closely correlated. Mean fatigue predicted variability in mood; at the momentary level, both fatigue and pain were independently associated with mood. Conclusion Fatigue is a significant factor for both African Americans and non-Hispanic whites with OA, and is negatively related to quality of life. Pain symptoms, at both the momentary level and across individuals, were robust predictors of fatigue. Although overall levels of reported symptoms were similar across these 2 groups, the pattern of fatigue symptoms across the day differed. PMID:26315851

  4. African easterly wave energetics on intraseasonal timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alaka, Ghassan J., Jr.

    East Atlantic tropical cyclone generation is associated with positive PKE events than with negative PKE events. Easterly wave activity is then examined in a regional model. The Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) simulates West African monsoon climatology more accurately than the WRF Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM). Although the WRF-NMM produces more realistic boreal summer rainfall than the WRF-ARW, it fails to accurately simulate the AEJ and other key West African monsoon features. Parameterizations within the WRF-ARW are scrutinized as well, with the WRF single-moment 6-class microphysics and the Noah land surface model outperforming Thompson microphysics and the RUC land surface model. Three ten-year WRF-ARW experiments are performed to investigate the role of external forcing on intraseasonal variability in West Africa. In addition to a control simulation, two sensitivity experiments remove 30-90-day variability from the boundary conditions (for all zonal wavenumbers and just for eastward zonal wavenumbers 0-10). Overall, intraseasonal variability of AEWs shows only modest differences after the removal of all 30-90-day input into the model boundary conditions. PKE and PAPE budgets reveal that simulated positive PKE events in West Africa are preceded by extensions of the AEJ into East Africa, which enhance barotropic and baroclinic energy conversions in this region. This jet extension is associated with warm lower-tropospheric temperature anomalies in the eastern Sahara. In West Africa, the amplitude of PKE and PAPE budget terms exhibit a similar evolution (even in the sensitivity experiments) as in the reanalysis products.

  5. Trend analysis and ARIMA modelling of pre-monsoon rainfall data for western India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narayanan, Priya; Basistha, Ashoke; Sarkar, Sumana; Kamna, Sachdeva

    2013-01-01

    Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall over different seasons influence physical, social and economic parameters. Pre-monsoon (March, April and May - MAM) rainfall over the country is highly variable. Since heat lows and convective rainfall in MAM have an impact on the intensity of the ensuing monsoons, hence the pre-monsoon period was chosen for the study. The pre-whitened Mann Kendall test was used to explore presence of rainfall trend during MAM. The results indicate presence of significant (at 10% level) increasing trend in two stations (Ajmer, Bikaner). The practical significance of the change in rainfall was also explored as percentage changes over long term mean, using Theil and Sen's median slope estimator. Forecast using univariate ARIMA model for pre-monsoon months indicates that there is a significant rise in the pre-monsoon rainfall over the northwest part of the country.

  6. The verification of millennial-scale monsoon water vapor transport channel in northwest China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yu; Zhang, Chengqi; Wang, Yue

    2016-05-01

    Long-term changes of the Asian summer monsoon water vapor transport play a pivotal role in the variability of monsoon precipitation. Paleo-climate simulations have shown that there is an important monsoon vapor transport channel in western China. Previous studies mostly focused on the correlation between monsoon precipitation and intensity. Little research has been done on the verification of the water vapor channel. Compared with speleothem and lacustrine systems, the hydrological cycle of land surface sediments is more directly related to the monsoon water vapor. In this study, we used carbonate δ18O and organic matter δ13C of the surface eolian sediments from the piedmont of the northern Qilian Mountains to verify the monsoon water vapor on the Holocene millennial-scale. Two surface sedimentary sections were selected to study paleo-monsoon water vapor transport. Proxy data, including carbonate δ18O and organic matter δ13C of surface eolian sediments, as well as total organic matter and carbonate content were obtained from the two eolian sections. We also synthesized transient simulations of the CCSM3 and the Kiel climate models. The PMIP 3.0 project and TRACE isotopic simulations were also compared with the reconstructed monsoon water vapor transport. Our findings indicate that the strength of the Holocene Asian summer monsoon is consistent with the water vapor transport in western China that has significant impacts to long-term monsoon precipitation in northern China. This study verifies a significant millennial-scale correlation between the monsoon strength and monsoon water vapor transport intensity along the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

  7. Recent climatological trend of the Saharan heat low and its impact on the West African climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavaysse, Christophe; Flamant, Cyrille; Evan, Amato; Janicot, Serge; Gaetani, Marco

    2015-10-01

    The Saharan heat low (SHL) plays a pivotal role in the West African monsoon system in spring and summer. The recent trend in SHL activity has been analysed using two sets of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model reanalyses and Atmospheric Models Intercomparison Project simulations from 15 climate models performed in the framework of the 5th Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) exercise. A local increase of temperature in the Sahara during the 90s is found in the two sets of NWP models temperature. This increase is stronger within the SHL region than over the surrounding areas. Using different temporal filters (under 25 days, 25-100 days and above 300 days), we show that this is accompanied by a slight but widespread increase of temperature, and a change in the filtered signal under 25 days during the transition period of the 90s. We also show that SHL pulsations occurring at different time scales impact the West Africa climate on a variety of spatial scales, from the regional scale (for the high band pass) to the synoptic scale (for the low band pass signal). Despite a large variability in the temporal trends for 15 climate models from the CMIP5 project, the warming trend in the 90s is observed in the models ensemble mean. Nevertheless, large discrepancies are found between the NWP models reanalyses and the climate model simulations regarding the spatial and temporal evolutions of the SHL as well as its impact on West African climate at the different time scales. These comparisons also reveal that climate models represent the West African monsoon interactions with SHL pulsations quite differently. We provide recommendations to use some of them depending on the time scales of the processes at play (synoptic, seasonal, interannual) and based on key SHL metrics (location, mean intensity, global trend, interaction with the West African monsoon dynamics).

  8. Subtropical circulation, Tibetan Plateau, and Asian Summer Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, G. X.

    2015-12-01

    The characteristics of the land-air-sea interaction in summer subtropics and their impacts on climate were revealed. It was shown that different kind of diabatic heating plays different roles in the formation of the subtropical circulation where the surface sensible heating associated with the land-sea distribution plays a fundamentally important role, and the three spatial- scales of atmospheric forcing contribute in various ways to the formation of aridity/desert over the western parts of continents and wet/monsoon over the eastern parts. Thus monsoon and desert coexist as twin features. It was identified that the onset of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) consists of three dynamically consequential stages: the onset first occurs over the eastern Bay of Bengal (BOB) in early May, which is followed by the onset over the South China Sea in mid-May, and the Indian Monsoon onset in early June. During such an onset progression, the formation, maintenance and evolution of the South Asian High (SAH) play a significant role in generating the upper tropospheric dumping. In the lower troposphere, the development of the BOB monsoon onset vortex, the ASM onset barrier, the cross equatorial SST gradient and the forced convection over the eastern Arabian Sea also regulate the onset evolution. In winter the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can inspire a stationary dipole-type atmospheric wave, forming a specific climate pattern in Asia. In spring, such a dipole circulation forms the unique persistent rainfall over Southern China. The TP forcing can also anchor the ASM onset over the BOB by generating the unique short- life BOB SST warm pool and modulating the SAH in the upper troposphere. In summer the thermal forcing of the Tibetan-Iranian Plateau plays a significant role in controlling the Asian monsoon by transporting water vapor from the sea to the land for the genesis of continental monsoon. The TP thermal forcing also modulates the regional climate variability in different time scales.

  9. Aerosol interactions with African/Atlantic climate dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseinpour, F.; Wilcox, E. M.

    2014-07-01

    Mechanistic relationships exist between variability of dust in the oceanic Saharan air layer (OSAL) and transient changes in the dynamics of Western Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This study provides evidence of possible interactions between dust in the OSAL region and African easterly jet-African easterly wave (AEJ-AEW) system in the climatology of boreal summer, when easterly wave activity peaks. Synoptic-scale changes in instability and precipitation in the African/Atlantic intertropical convergence zone are correlated with enhanced aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the OSAL region in response to anomalous 3D overturning circulations and upstream/downstream thermal anomalies at above and below the mean-AEJ level. Upstream and downstream anomalies are referred to the daily thermal/dynamical changes over the West African monsoon region and the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, respectively. Our hypothesis is that AOD in the OSAL is positively correlated with the downstream AEWs and negatively correlated with the upstream waves from climatological perspective. The similarity between the 3D pattern of thermal/dynamical anomalies correlated with dust outbreaks and those of AEWs provides a mechanism for dust radiative heating in the atmosphere to reinforce AEW activity. We proposed that the interactions of OSAL dust with regional climate mainly occur through coupling of dust with the AEWs.

  10. 2.1 Pan-WCRP Monsoon Modelling Workshop Summary

    SciTech Connect

    Sperber, K R

    2005-06-28

    Ken Sperber led a discussion of the outcome of the Pan-WCRP Monsoon Modelling Workshop that was held at the University of California at Irvine from 15-17 June 2005. At the workshop presentations from key CLIVAR and GEWEX panels were presented to highlight the outstanding problems in modelling the Earth's monsoons. Additionally, presentations from invited experts were given to highlight important aspects of monsoon phenomena and processes, such as low-level jets, air-sea interaction, predictability, observational networks/studies, and model test beds etc. Since all persons attending the CLIVAR AAMP meeting were present for all, or most, of the monsoon workshop, a detailed description of the workshop presentations was not given. Rather, the discussion was focused on the recommendations of the workshop breakout groups and their relevance to CLIVAR AAMP. CLIVAR AAMP endorsed the near-term workshop recommendation of investigating the diurnal cycle using a hierarchy of models a key way forward for promoting CLIVAR/GEWEX interactions. In GCM studies CLIVAR researchers have identified the diurnal cycle as a forced ''mode'' of variability that is poorly represented in terms of amplitude and phase, especially in the case of precipitation. Typical phase errors of 6-12 hours are noted over both land and ocean in GCMs. CLIVAR views adequate simulation of the diurnal cycle as key aspect of variability in its own right, but also because of its potential rectification on to subseasonal variability (e.g., the Madden-Julian oscillation). It is hypothesized that improvement of diurnal variability may lead to an improved representation of intraseasonal variability and improved skill of monsoon forecasts on medium-range to seasonal time scales.

  11. Testing a flexible method to reduce false monsoon onsets.

    PubMed

    Stiller-Reeve, Mathew Alexander; Spengler, Thomas; Chu, Pao-Shin

    2014-01-01

    To generate information about the monsoon onset and withdrawal we have to choose a monsoon definition and apply it to data. One problem that arises is that false monsoon onsets can hamper our analysis, which is often alleviated by smoothing the data in time or space. Another problem is that local communities or stakeholder groups may define the monsoon differently. We therefore aim to develop a technique that reduces false onsets for high-resolution gridded data, while also being flexible for different requirements that can be tailored to particular end-users. In this study, we explain how we developed our technique and demonstrate how it successfully reduces false onsets and withdrawals. The presented results yield improved information about the monsoon length and its interannual variability. Due to this improvement, we are able to extract information from higher resolution data sets. This implies that we can potentially get a more detailed picture of local climate variations that can be used in more local climate application projects such as community-based adaptations.

  12. Transport pathways of peroxyacetyl nitrate in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from different monsoon systems during the summer monsoon season

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fadnavis, S.; Semeniuk, K.; Schultz, M. G.; Kiefer, M.; Mahajan, A.; Pozzoli, L.; Sonbawane, S.

    2015-06-01

    The Asian summer monsoon involves complex transport patterns with large scale redistribution of trace gases in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). We employ the global chemistry-climate model ECHAM5-HAMMOZ in order to evaluate the transport pathways and the contributions of nitrogen oxide species PAN, NOx, and HNO3 from various monsoon regions, to the UTLS over Southern Asia and vice versa. Simulated long term seasonal mean mixing ratios are compared with trace gas retrievals from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding aboard ENVISAT(MIPAS-E) and aircraft campaigns during the monsoon season (June-September) in order to evaluate the model's ability to reproduce these transport patterns. The model simulations show that there are three regions which contribute substantial pollution to the South Asian UTLS: the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), the North American Monsoon (NAM) and the West African monsoon (WAM). However, penetration due to ASM convection reaches deeper into the UTLS as compared to NAM and WAM outflow. The circulation in all three monsoon regions distributes PAN into the tropical latitude belt in the upper troposphere. Remote transport also occurs in the extratropical upper troposphere where westerly winds drive North American and European pollutants eastward where they can become part of the ASM convection and be lifted into the lower stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere the injected pollutants are transported westward by easterly winds. The intense convective activity in the monsoon regions is associated with lightning and thereby the formation of additional NOx. This also affects the distribution of PAN in the UTLS. According to sensitivity simulations with and without lightning, increase in concentrations of PAN (~ 40%), HNO3 (75%), NOx (70%) and ozone (30%) over the regions of convective transport, especially over equatorial Africa and America and comparatively less over the ASM. This indicates that PAN in the

  13. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal timescales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features

  14. HLA-E coding and 3' untranslated region variability determined by next-generation sequencing in two West-African population samples.

    PubMed

    Castelli, Erick C; Mendes-Junior, Celso T; Sabbagh, Audrey; Porto, Iane O P; Garcia, André; Ramalho, Jaqueline; Lima, Thálitta H A; Massaro, Juliana D; Dias, Fabrício C; Collares, Cristhianna V A; Jamonneau, Vincent; Bucheton, Bruno; Camara, Mamadou; Donadi, Eduardo A

    2015-12-01

    HLA-E is a non-classical Human Leucocyte Antigen class I gene with immunomodulatory properties. Whereas HLA-E expression usually occurs at low levels, it is widely distributed amongst human tissues, has the ability to bind self and non-self antigens and to interact with NK cells and T lymphocytes, being important for immunosurveillance and also for fighting against infections. HLA-E is usually the most conserved locus among all class I genes. However, most of the previous studies evaluating HLA-E variability sequenced only a few exons or genotyped known polymorphisms. Here we report a strategy to evaluate HLA-E variability by next-generation sequencing (NGS) that might be used to other HLA loci and present the HLA-E haplotype diversity considering the segment encoding the entire HLA-E mRNA (including 5'UTR, introns and the 3'UTR) in two African population samples, Susu from Guinea-Conakry and Lobi from Burkina Faso. Our results indicate that (a) the HLA-E gene is indeed conserved, encoding mainly two different protein molecules; (b) Africans do present several unknown HLA-E alleles presenting synonymous mutations; (c) the HLA-E 3'UTR is quite polymorphic and (d) haplotypes in the HLA-E 3'UTR are in close association with HLA-E coding alleles. NGS has proved to be an important tool on data generation for future studies evaluating variability in non-classical MHC genes.

  15. Anomalies in the South American Monsoon Induced by Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K. M. William; Kyu-Mong, Kim

    2007-01-01

    We have investigated the direct effects of aerosols on the water cycle of the South American monsoon using the NASA finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM). Global aerosol forcings are computed from radiative transfer functions derived from global distributions of five species of aerosols, i.e., dust, black carbon, organic carbon, sulphate and sea salt from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) model. Comparing fvGCM experiments without aerosol forcing, and with different combinations of aerosol forcing, we evaluate the impacts of aerosol direct heating on the onset, maintenance and evolution of the South American summer monsoon. We find that during the pre-monsoon season (September-October-November) Saharan dust contribute to heating of the atmosphere over the central and eastern equatorial Atlantic/Africa region through the elevated heat pump mechanism. The heating generates an anomalous Walker circulation with sinking motion, and low level northeasterlies over the Caribbean and northwestern South America. The low level flow is blocked by the Andes, and turn south and southeastward, increasing the low level jet (LLJ) along the eastern slope of the Andes. The increased LLJ transports more moisture from the Atlantic and the Amazon, enhancing the moisture convergence over subtropical land regions of South America. The moisture convergence was further accelerated by atmospheric heating by biomass burning over the Amazon. The net results of the dust and biomass heating are: a) an advance of the monsoon rainy season, b) an enhanced LLJ and c) a shifting the South America monsoon land precipitation equatorward, with increased rain over southern Brazil and reduced rain over the La Plata basin. ramifications of this elevated heating heat pump mechanism in aerosol monsoon water cycle on climate variability and change will be discussed. The ramifications of this "elevated heating heat pump" mechanism in aerosol monsoom water cycle on climate

  16. An Assessment of the Impact of the 1997-98 El Nino on the Asian-Australian Monsoon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.; Wu, H.-T.

    1999-01-01

    Using state-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analyses of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the AA-monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions during the boreal summer and winter respectively. The observed 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies of the Asian (boreal) summer monsoon and 74% of the Australia (austral) monsoon attributable to basin-scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19% and 10%, leaving about 47% and 16% due to internal dynamics for the boreal and austral monsoon respectively. For the boreal summer monsoon, it is noted that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also intrinsic monsoon regional coupled processes.

  17. Interactions between Oceanic Saharan Air Layer and African Easterly Jet- African Easterly Waves System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseinpour, F.; Wilcox, E. M.

    2013-12-01

    , along with strengthened (weakened) correlative low-level trade winds in northern and southern edges of the Atlantic ITCZ. These result in three-dimensional displacements and changes in circulations and precipitation variability, especially in West African monsoon (WAM) dynamics.

  18. Intra- and inter-genotypic size variation in the central variable region of the 9RL open reading frame of diverse African swine fever viruses.

    PubMed

    Phologane, Solomon B; Bastos, Armanda D S; Penrith, Mary-Louise

    2005-12-01

    African swine fever (ASF) viruses are characterised by numerous p72 genotypes, but by low levels of intra-genotypic variation, particularly in domestic pig associated genotypes. As it is precisely these viral lineages that are involved in outbreaks of the disease it is imperative that alternative, more informative gene regions be identified which are suitable for intra-genotypic resolution of relationships. To this end, the central variable region (CVR) of the 9RL open reading frame of diverse ASF viruses was amplified and product sizes scored and compared within and between genotypes. Results indicate that although product sizes are not genotype restricted, there is a high degree of intra-genotypic size variation particularly within the homogeneous p72 genotypes. Within one such genotype, the ESACWA virus genotype, 12 size-discrete CVR products were identified, four corresponding to viruses of west African origin and eight to viruses from countries where the disease is exotic, namely Europe, South America and the Caribbean. The high degree of size heterogeneity in the CVR of this genotype is significant and attests to the usefulness of the CVR gene marker in elucidating the epidemiology of African swine fever.

  19. The VP2 variable region of African and German isolates of infectious bursal disease virus: comparison with very virulent, "classical" virulent, and attenuated tissue culture-adapted strains.

    PubMed

    Zierenberg, K; Nieper, H; van den Berg, T P; Ezeokoli, C D; Voss, M; Müller, H

    2000-01-01

    11 African and two German IBDV strains isolated in the mid '80s from field outbreaks in vaccinated and unvaccinated chicken flocks displayed features of very virulent (vv) IBDV strains. The sequence data of the VP2 variable region and phylogenetic analysis confirm that these strains can be grouped within vv IBDV strains which appeared at the same time on the three continents Africa, Asia, and Europe. Strain Cu-1wt, responsible for severe IBD outbreaks in Germany 13 years earlier, showed some relatedness to these strains, but also significant differences at the genomic level, even though this strain has also features of the vv IBDV strains. PMID:10664410

  20. Comparing Gifted and Nongifted African American and Euro-American Students on Cognitive and Academic Variables Using Local Norms

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jordan, Kelli R.; Bain, Sherry K.; McCallum, R. Steve; Mee Bell, Sherry

    2012-01-01

    A total of 47 gifted and nongifted African American and Euro-American elementary students were rated by their teachers on a multidimensional instrument developed to minimize language considerations and to rely on local norms (Universal Multiple Abilities Scales [UMAS; McCallum & Bracken, 2012a]). Results from two factorial MANOVAs revealed no…

  1. The use of fractional accumulated precipitation for the evaluation of the annual cycle of monsoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperber, Kenneth R.; Annamalai, H.

    2014-12-01

    Using pentad rainfall data we demonstrate the benefits of using accumulated rainfall and fractional accumulated rainfall for the evaluation of the annual cycle of rainfall over various monsoon domains. Our approach circumvents issues related to using threshold-based analysis techniques for investigating the life-cycle of monsoon rainfall. In the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 models we find systematic errors in the phase of the annual cycle of rainfall. The models are delayed in the onset of summer rainfall over India, the Gulf of Guinea, and the South American Monsoon, with early onset prevalent for the Sahel and the North American Monsoon. This, in combination with the rapid fractional accumulation rate, impacts the ability of the models to simulate the fractional accumulation observed during summer. The rapid fractional accumulation rate and the time at which the accumulation begins are metrics that indicate how well the models concentrate the monsoon rainfall over the peak rainfall season, and the extent to which there is a phase error in the annual cycle. The lack of consistency in the phase error across all domains suggests that a "global" approach to the study of monsoons may not be sufficient to rectify the regional differences. Rather, regional process studies are necessary for diagnosing the underlying causes of the regionally-specific systematic model biases over the different monsoon domains. Despite the afore-mentioned biases, most models simulate well the interannual variability in the date of monsoon onset, the exceptions being models with the most pronounced dry biases. Two methods for estimating monsoon duration are presented, one of which includes nonlinear aspects of the fractional accumulation. The summer fractional accumulation of rainfall provides an objective way to estimate the extent of the monsoon domain, even in models with substantial dry biases for which monsoon is not defined using threshold-based techniques.

  2. How well do land surface models reproduce the water and energy cycles in the West African monsoon system ? Evaluation over the Upper Ouémé basin, Benin (ALMIP2 project)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peugeot, C.; Boone, A. A.; Demarty, J.; manuela, G.; Laurent, K.; Cappelaere, B.; Awessou, B.; Cohard, J.; Galle, S.; Gascon, T.; Getirana, A.; Hector, B.; Mamadou, O.; Richard, A.; Seghieri, J.; Séguis, L.

    2013-12-01

    Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used in environmental and climate sciences to simulate matter (water, carbon) and energy exchanges between the continental surface and the atmosphere. They are also increasingly used in a wide range of applications such as impact studies on land use management or climate change. The AMMA project and the associated observation campaigns provided unique data-sets to drive land surface models and to evaluate their results over the West African region, where such high added-value information has been lacking. In the framework of the ALMIP2 project (AMMA Land surface Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 2), simulations from about 20 LSMs were done on three contrasted meso-scale domains in Mali, Niger and Benin, over the period 2005-2008 using the same forcing data sets at 0.05 degree and 30 minutes space-time resolution. This talk analyses the simulated water and energy budget components on the sub-humid upper Ouémé basin (10,000 km2, Benin site), where the high-quality rainfall and runoff datasets allow a detailed and original hydrological evaluation of these meso-scale simulations. As expected, the model inter-comparison shows large differences in the water and energy partitioning, either at the annual (see figure) or intra-seasonal time scale. Most of them do not reproduce the observed runoff, with annual biases ranging from -100% to 200 %. The multi-model mean Evapotranspiration (ET) correctly matches the observations, specially in the rainy season, with contrasted simulations of evaporation vs. transpiration from one model to the other. The identification of the more realistic water and energy partitioning is a key issue addressed by the ALMIP2 project. Previous studies performed in the AMMA framework on the Oueme basin highlighted the key role of below-ground water dynamics in the hydrological cycle (lateral transfer to rivers, groundwater seasonal recharge-discharge, ...). Moreover, field evidences suggested that

  3. Topographic development in the late Neogene and the impact on African vegetation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, Gerlinde; Prange, Matthias; Schulz, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Hominid evolution, specifically the split of the hominid-chimpansee lineages in the late Miocene has long been hypothesized to be linked to the retreat of the tropical rainforest in Africa in the late Miocene. A main cause for the climatic and vegetation change often considered was uplift of Africa but also uplift of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau was suggested to have contributed to an intensification of the African-Asian monsoon system and hence impacted rainfall distribution over Eastern Africa. In contrast, more recent proxy data suggest that open grassland habitats were available to human ancestors and apes long before their divergence and that there is no evidence for a closed rainforest in the late Miocene. We use the coupled global circulation model CCSM3 with an online coupled dynamic vegetation module to investigate the impact of the uplift processes on the African-Asian monsoon circulation and consequent changes in tropical African vegetation. The model is run with a resolution of T85 (~1.4°) for the atmosphere and land surface and a variable resolution for the computation of ocean and sea ice down to a meridional grid spacing of 0.3° around the equator. We performed a set of sensitivity experiments, altering elevations of the Himalaya and the Tibet Plateau and of East and South Africa separately and in combination from half to full present day level. The simulations confirm the dominant impact of the East and South African uplift for climate and vegetation development of the African tropics. Only a weak, but significant, impact of the prescribed Asian Uplift on African monsoon and vegetation development could be detected. Himalaya/Tibet Plateau uplift lead to slightly dryer conditions in Central Africa and small increases in rainfall over East Africa. According to the model simulations topographic uplift of Africa significantly altered rainfall in Central Africa, which coincides with proxy records from the Congo basin showing a change towards

  4. A brief survey on climate change effects on the Indian Monsoon

    SciTech Connect

    Bala, G

    2007-02-06

    Each year, Indian summer monsoon season begins in June and ends in September. Surface winds blow from the southwest during this season. The Indian summer monsoon typically covers large areas of India with western and central India receiving more than 90% of their total annual precipitation during this period, and southern and northwestern India receiving 50%-75% of their total annual rainfall. Overall, monthly totals average 200-300 mm over the country as a whole, with the largest values observed during the heart of the monsoon season in July and August. In all total, India receives about 870 mm of rainfall in a normal summer monsoon season. This summary discusses the effects of climate change on the frequency, mean rainfall, duration and the variability of the Indian Monsoon. East Asian Monsoon in the southeastern part of Asia is not discussed in this summary. Changes in monsoon characteristics are mainly inferred from climate model simulations submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). It should be cautioned that there is a large range in the results from these models. For instance, the range of mean monsoon precipitation as simulated by the AR4 models over India is from 500 mm to 900 mm for the present-day climate (Kirpalani et al. 2006).

  5. Evaluation of potential variables contributing to the development and duration of plantar lesions in a population of aquarium-maintained African penguins (Spheniscus demersus).

    PubMed

    Erlacher-Reid, Claire; Dunn, J Lawrence; Camp, Tracy; Macha, Laurie; Mazzaro, Lisa; Tuttle, Allison D

    2012-01-01

    Bumblefoot (pododermatitis), often described as the most significant environmental disease of captive penguins, is commonly due to excessive pressure or trauma on the plantar surface of the avian foot, resulting in inflammation or necrosis and causing severe swelling, abrasions, or cracks in the skin. Although not formally evaluated in penguins, contributing factors for bumblefoot are thought to be similar to those initiating the condition in raptors and poultry. These factors include substrate, body weight, and lack of exercise. The primary purpose of this retrospective study was to evaluate variables potentially contributing to the development and duration of plantar lesions in aquarium-maintained African penguins (Spheniscus demersus), including sex, weight, age, season, exhibit activity, and territory substrate. Results indicate that males develop significantly more plantar lesions than females. Penguins weighing between 3.51 and 4.0 kg develop plantar lesions significantly more often than penguins weighing between 2.5 and 3.5 kg, and because male African penguins ordinarily weigh significantly more than females, weight is likely a contributing factor in the development of lesions in males compared with females. Significantly more plantar lesions were observed in penguins standing for greater than 50% of their time on exhibit than swimming. Penguins occupying smooth concrete territories developed more plantar lesions compared with penguins occupying grate territories. Recommendations for minimizing bumblefoot in African penguins include training penguins for monthly foot examinations for early detection of plantar lesions predisposing for the disease, encouraging swimming activity, and replacing smooth surfaces on exhibit with surfaces providing variable degrees of pressure and texture on the feet. PMID:21557300

  6. Medication adherence and visit-to-visit variability of systolic blood pressure in African Americans with chronic kidney disease in the AASK trial.

    PubMed

    Hong, K; Muntner, P; Kronish, I; Shilane, D; Chang, T I

    2016-01-01

    Lower adherence to antihypertensive medications may increase visit-to-visit variability of blood pressure (VVV of BP), a risk factor for cardiovascular events and death. We used data from the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) trial to examine whether lower medication adherence is associated with higher systolic VVV of BP in African Americans with hypertensive chronic kidney disease (CKD). Determinants of VVV of BP were also explored. AASK participants (n=988) were categorized by self-report or pill count as having perfect (100%), moderately high (75-99%), moderately low (50-74%) or low (<50%) proportion of study visits with high medication adherence over a 1-year follow-up period. We used multinomial logistic regression to examine determinants of medication adherence, and multivariable-adjusted linear regression to examine the association between medication adherence and systolic VVV of BP, defined as the coefficient of variation or the average real variability (ARV). Participants with lower self-reported adherence were generally younger and had a higher prevalence of comorbid conditions. Compared with perfect adherence, moderately high, moderately low and low adherence was associated with 0.65% (±0.31%), 0.99% (±0.31%) and 1.29% (±0.32%) higher systolic VVV of BP (defined as the coefficient of variation) in fully adjusted models. Results were qualitatively similar when using ARV or when using pill counts as the measure of adherence. Lower medication adherence is associated with higher systolic VVV of BP in African Americans with hypertensive CKD; efforts to improve medication adherence in this population may reduce systolic VVV of BP.

  7. Evaluation of potential variables contributing to the development and duration of plantar lesions in a population of aquarium-maintained African penguins (Spheniscus demersus).

    PubMed

    Erlacher-Reid, Claire; Dunn, J Lawrence; Camp, Tracy; Macha, Laurie; Mazzaro, Lisa; Tuttle, Allison D

    2012-01-01

    Bumblefoot (pododermatitis), often described as the most significant environmental disease of captive penguins, is commonly due to excessive pressure or trauma on the plantar surface of the avian foot, resulting in inflammation or necrosis and causing severe swelling, abrasions, or cracks in the skin. Although not formally evaluated in penguins, contributing factors for bumblefoot are thought to be similar to those initiating the condition in raptors and poultry. These factors include substrate, body weight, and lack of exercise. The primary purpose of this retrospective study was to evaluate variables potentially contributing to the development and duration of plantar lesions in aquarium-maintained African penguins (Spheniscus demersus), including sex, weight, age, season, exhibit activity, and territory substrate. Results indicate that males develop significantly more plantar lesions than females. Penguins weighing between 3.51 and 4.0 kg develop plantar lesions significantly more often than penguins weighing between 2.5 and 3.5 kg, and because male African penguins ordinarily weigh significantly more than females, weight is likely a contributing factor in the development of lesions in males compared with females. Significantly more plantar lesions were observed in penguins standing for greater than 50% of their time on exhibit than swimming. Penguins occupying smooth concrete territories developed more plantar lesions compared with penguins occupying grate territories. Recommendations for minimizing bumblefoot in African penguins include training penguins for monthly foot examinations for early detection of plantar lesions predisposing for the disease, encouraging swimming activity, and replacing smooth surfaces on exhibit with surfaces providing variable degrees of pressure and texture on the feet.

  8. A conserved African swine fever virus right variable region gene, l11L, is non-essential for growth in vitro and virulence in domestic swine.

    PubMed

    Kleiboeker, S B; Kutish, G F; Neilan, J G; Lu, Z; Zsak, L; Rock, D L

    1998-05-01

    The right variable region of the African swine fever virus (ASFV) genome is known to contain genes with functions involving virus virulence and host range in swine. A novel open reading frame, ORF l11L, which was absent in the non-pathogenic, cell culture-adapted European isolate BA71V, was identified in the pathogenic African isolate Malawi Lil-20/1. The location of l11L in the right variable region, together with its absence in BA71V, suggested that l11L may have a function in virus virulence and/or host range. Here, we show that the l11L gene is highly conserved among pathogenic African, European and Caribbean ASFV field isolates and that it exists either in a short form, encoding a protein of 77-78 amino acids (9.1 kDa) or in a longer form of 93-94 amino acids (11.1 kDa). The presence of two predicted membrane-spanning segments suggests that l11L is an integral membrane protein. RT-PCR analysis demonstrated that l11L mRNA is expressed late in the virus replication cycle. A recombinant l11L gene deletion mutant, deltal11L, was constructed from the ASFV isolate Malawi Lil-20/1 to examine gene function. Deletion of l11L did not affect virus replication in swine macrophage cell cultures nor virulence in domestic pigs, indicating that l11L is non-essential for growth in vitro and for virus virulence in domestic swine.

  9. The impact of revised simplified Arakawa-Schubert scheme on the simulation of mean and diurnal variability associated with active and break phases of Indian summer monsoon using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganai, Malay; Krishna, R. Phani Murali; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Mahakur, M.

    2016-08-01

    The impact of revised simplified Arakawa-Schubert (RSAS) convective parameterization scheme in Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2 (CFSv2) on the simulation of active and break phases of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) has been investigated. The results revealed that RSAS showed better fidelity in simulating monsoon features from diurnal to daily scales during active and break periods as compared to SAS simulation. Prominent improvement can be noted in simulating diurnal phase of precipitation in RSAS over central India (CI) and equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) region during active periods. The spatial distribution of precipitation largely improved in RSAS simulation during active and break episodes. CFSv2 with SAS simulation has noticeable dry bias over CI and wet bias over EIO region which appeared to be largely reduced in RSAS simulation during both phases of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). During active periods, RSAS simulates more realistic probability distribution function (PDF) in good agreement with the observation. The relative improvement has been identified in outgoing longwave radiation, monsoon circulations, and vertical velocities in RSAS over SAS simulation. The improvement of rainfall distribution appears to be contributed by proper simulation of convective rainfall in RSAS. CFSv2 with RSAS simulation is able to simulate observed diurnal cycle of rainfall over CI. It correctly reproduces the time of maximum rainfall over CI. It is found that the improved feedback between moisture and convective processes in RSAS may be attributed to its improved simulation. Besides improvement, RSAS could not reproduce proper tropospheric temperature, cloud hydrometeors over ISM domain which shows the scope for future development.

  10. Present and future precipitation variability over the East African region using CORDEX simulations (COSMO-CLM) and its relation with circulation patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souverijns, Niels; Thiery, Wim; Demuzere, Matthias; van Lipzig, Nicole

    2015-04-01

    The East African region is highly dependent on precipitation due to its water-fed agricultural system. On the other hand the region experiences a high interannual variability regarding precipitation amounts during several months. Consequently, there is a strong need to predict how precipitation variability will evolve under climate change in this region. This requires a good understanding of the processes that influence this variability. This study tackles this issue via the use of circulation patterns, shown to strongly influence precipitation over the East African region. Changes in (the frequency of) circulation patterns towards the future are therefore the main drivers of changes in precipitation variability. To investigate this issue a classification of the different circulation patterns over the region was executed for a reference period (1981-2010) on ERA Interim data using the COST733class software. Different algorithms are tested and their performance over the study area is evaluated. This results in a weather atlas concerning the circulation patterns and their corresponding precipitation amounts that are currently present over the region. Furthermore, the classification will be executed on the COSMO-CLM CORDEX-Africa evaluation simulation for the same reference period. The model results are evaluated by comparing them with the classification results of the ERA Interim data and observational datasets. To predict how precipitation variability changes towards the future, a classification is also applied on the whole CORDEX-Africa ensemble for a present (1981-2010) and future period (2071-2100) under RCP 8.5. Comparing both classifications makes it possible to detect differences in the frequencies of circulation patterns and in the circulation patterns themselves. Particular attention is paid to the months that show a high interannual variability in precipitation amounts, since changes here are of most importance for the region. Finally, the different drivers

  11. The meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean, and the influence of the East African Highlands.

    PubMed

    Slingo, Julia; Spencer, Hilary; Hoskins, Brian; Berrisford, Paul; Black, Emily

    2005-01-15

    This paper reviews the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean and uses a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model to investigate the influence of the East African Highlands on the climate of the Indian Ocean and its surrounding regions. The new 44-year re-analysis produced by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been used to construct a new climatology of the Western Indian Ocean. A brief overview of the seasonal cycle of the Western Indian Ocean is presented which emphasizes the importance of the geography of the Indian Ocean basin for controlling the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean. The principal modes of inter-annual variability are described, associated with El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole or Zonal Mode, and the basic characteristics of the subseasonal weather over the Western Indian Ocean are presented, including new statistics on cyclone tracks derived from the ECMWF re-analyses. Sensitivity experiments, in which the orographic effects of East Africa are removed, have shown that the East African Highlands, although not very high, play a significant role in the climate of Africa, India and Southeast Asia, and in the heat, salinity and momentum forcing of the Western Indian Ocean. The hydrological cycle over Africa is systematically enhanced in all seasons by the presence of the East African Highlands, and during the Asian summer monsoon there is a major redistribution of the rainfall across India and Southeast Asia. The implied impact of the East African Highlands on the ocean is substantial. The East African Highlands systematically freshen the tropical Indian Ocean, and act to focus the monsoon winds along the coast, leading to greater upwelling and cooler sea-surface temperatures.

  12. A seamless approach to assessing monsoon simulations in the Met Office Unified Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levine, R. C.; Boo, K. O.; Martin, G. M.; Milton, S. F.; Mitra, A.; Sellar, A. A.; Willett, M. R.

    2009-04-01

    We present an assessment of monsoons as simulated by the latest configurations of the Met Office Unified Model. These consist of models of varying complexity that are used for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), climate, and seasonal prediction. A comparison is made between the model biases in different monsoon regions for the different configurations, giving an insight into the nature of the main systematic errors, and also of the time-scales involved in their development. Both the mean state and the variability are assessed using a metric-based approach. The main model bias in the Indian monsoon region is the relatively low precipitation over Indian land. This has been significantly improved in the latest atmospheric component of the climate model, mainly due to changes in the CAPE closure in the convection scheme, which are aimed at reducing the tendency for strong intermittent deep convection. A more detailed comparison of the model with ERA re-analysis data is made for the onset and the pre-monsoon period of the Indian summer monsoon, giving an insight into the impact of various changes to the model. The emphasis is placed on the impacts of the timing of convection, the development of the monsoon jet, the impact of cyclonic vortices, and the moistening rates over India. The interannual variability is further examined through analysis of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection, the link between El Nino/La Nina events and below/above average rainfall over India, which is assessed using a metric-based approach.

  13. Seasonal evolution of the West African heat low: a climatological perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavaysse, C.; Flamant, C.; Janicot, S.; Parker, D. J.; Lafore, J.-P.; Sultan, B.; Pelon, J.

    2009-08-01

    The West African heat low (WAHL), a region of high surface temperatures and low surface pressures, is a key element of the West African monsoon system. In this study, we propose a method to detect the WAHL in order to monitor its climatological seasonal displacement over West Africa during the period 1979-2001, using the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-40 reanalyses. The low-level atmospheric thickness (LLAT), a variable defined as the difference of geopotential heights at 700 and 925 hPa, is used to detect the dilatation of these levels generated by an increase of the temperature. We define grid points with 10% highest values of the LLAT as the WAHL. We show that our method reliably positions the WAHL over areas of high surface temperatures and low surface pressures, and that it is effective at detecting heat lows. In the course of the year, the climatological WAHL is shown to migrate north-westward from a position south of the Darfur mountains in the winter (November-March) to a location over the Sahara, between the Hoggar and the Atlas mountains, during the summer (June-September). The temperature tendency equation is used to investigate the processes controlling the displacement of the WAHL, and more particularly the heating at low levels. The specific period of the onset of the WAHL in its summer location over the Sahara (referred to as the Saharan heat low -SHL- onset) is also analysed during the 1984-2001 period, using complementary brightness temperature data from the European Union-funded Cloud Archive User Service (CLAUS). The climatological onset of the SHL occurs around 20 June, i.e. just before the climatological monsoon onset date. The present study suggests that the onset of the WAHL occurs approximately 5 days before the monsoon onset for the 1984-2001 period. This is confirmed independently by comparing the SHL onset date and the monsoon onset date for the 1984-2001 period. The seasonal evolution of the WAHL for the

  14. Precipitation-aerosol relationship over the Indian region during drought and excess summer monsoon years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Surendran, Sajani; Rajendran, Kavirajan; V. B., Arya

    2016-05-01

    This study investigates the aerosols-rainfall interaction during Indian summer monsoon and characterizes their difference in drought and excess summer monsoon years, based on MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer) derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) at 550 nm. AOD has been estimated using Level-2 MODIS Terra Data Version 6. AOD in drought years is found to be higher over India compared to excess monsoon years. The total effect of aerosols causes reduction of summer rainfall but with distinct differences in their impact during strong and weak summer monsoon years, due to the changes in clouds, radiation, large-scale circulation, and convection. Aerosol and cloud characteristics exhibit strong association to rainfall variability in interannual time scales. Variability in cloud effective radius and cloud optical thickness is found to be consistent with aerosol effect.

  15. Observations of the temporal variability in aerosol properties and their relationships to meteorology in the summer monsoonal South China Sea/East Sea: the scale-dependent role of monsoonal flows, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones, squall lines and cold pools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reid, J. S.; Lagrosas, N. D.; Jonsson, H. H.; Reid, E. A.; Sessions, W. R.; Simpas, J. B.; Uy, S. N.; Boyd, T. J.; Atwood, S. A.; Blake, D. R.; Campbell, J. R.; Cliff, S. S.; Holben, B. N.; Holz, R. E.; Hyer, E. J.; Lynch, P.; Meinardi, S.; Posselt, D. J.; Richardson, K. A.; Salinas, S. V.; Smirnov, A.; Wang, Q.; Yu, L.; Zhang, J.

    2015-02-01

    In a joint NRL/Manila Observatory mission, as part of the Seven SouthEast Asian Studies program (7-SEAS), a 2-week, late September 2011 research cruise in the northern Palawan archipelago was undertaken to observe the nature of southwest monsoonal aerosol particles in the South China Sea/East Sea (SCS/ES) and Sulu Sea region. Previous analyses suggested this region as a receptor for biomass burning from Borneo and Sumatra for boundary layer air entering the monsoonal trough. Anthropogenic pollution and biofuel emissions are also ubiquitous, as is heavy shipping traffic. Here, we provide an overview of the regional environment during the cruise, a time series of key aerosol and meteorological parameters, and their interrelationships. Overall, this cruise provides a narrative of the processes that control regional aerosol loadings and their possible feedbacks with clouds and precipitation. While 2011 was a moderate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) La Niña year, higher burning activity and lower precipitation was more typical of neutral conditions. The large-scale aerosol environment was modulated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated tropical cyclone (TC) activity in a manner consistent with the conceptual analysis performed by Reid et al. (2012). Advancement of the MJO from phase 3 to 6 with accompanying cyclogenesis during the cruise period strengthened flow patterns in the SCS/ES that modulated aerosol life cycle. TC inflow arms of significant convection sometimes span from Sumatra to Luzon, resulting in very low particle concentrations (minimum condensation nuclei CN < 150 cm-3, non-sea-salt PM2.5 < 1 μg m-3). However, elevated carbon monoxide levels were occasionally observed suggesting passage of polluted air masses whose aerosol particles had been rained out. Conversely, two drier periods occurred with higher aerosol particle concentrations originating from Borneo and Southern Sumatra (CN > 3000 cm-3 and non-sea-salt PM2.5 10-25 μg m

  16. Phylogeny and Morphological Variability of Trypanosomes from African Pelomedusid Turtles with Redescription of Trypanosoma mocambicum Pienaar, 1962.

    PubMed

    Dvořáková, Nela; Čepička, Ivan; Qablan, Moneeb A; Gibson, Wendy; Blažek, Radim; Široký, Pavel

    2015-12-01

    Little is known about host specificity, genetic diversity and phylogenetic relationships of African turtle trypanosomes. Using PCR targeting the SSU rRNA gene, we detected trypanosomes in 24 of 134 (17.9%) wild caught African pelomedusid turtles: Pelusios upembae (n=14), P. bechuanicus (n=1), P. rhodesianus (n=3) and P. subniger (n=6). Mixed infection of Trypanosoma species was confirmed by PCR in three specimens of P. upembae, and in one specimen each of P. bechuanicus, P. rhodesianus, and P. subniger. Microscopic examination of stained blood smears revealed two distinct forms (broad and slender) of trypomastigotes. The broad form coincided in morphology with T. mocambicumPienaar, 1962. Accordingly, we have designated this form as the neotype of T. mocambicum. In phylogenetic analysis of the SSU rRNA gene, all the new turtle trypanosome sequences grouped in a single clade within the strongly supported "aquatic" clade of Trypanosoma species. The turtle trypanosome clade was further subdivided into two subclades, which did not correlate with host turtle species or trypanosome morphology. This study provides the first sequence data of Trypanosoma species isolated from freshwater turtles from tropical Africa and extends knowledge on diversity of trypanosomes in the Afrotropical zoogeographical realm.

  17. High Resolution δ18O and δ13C Records of AMS 14C Dated Stalagmites From Jinlun and Yilingyan Caves in Guangxi, China: Climate Variability and Controlling Factors in the Monsoonal Region During the Past 2300 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, H. C.; Lien, W. Y.; Mii, H. S.; Jiang, G. H.; Chou, C. Y.; Chou, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Jinlun Cave in Mashan County and Yilingyan Cave in Wuming County are ~120km and ~60km north of Nanning in Guangxi Province under influence of both Indian Monsoon and North Western Pacific Monsoon. Several stalagmites have been dated by AMS 14C dating method since 230Th/U is not applicable due to very low U contents. Twenty (20) AMS 14C dates on Stalagmite JL20131005-10 (10-cm long) show "Bomb carbon curve", spanning the past 60 years. Lamination counting further confirms the chronology. Thirty nine (39) AMS 14C dates on Stalagmite JL20131005-12 (33-cm long) reveal 2300-year continuous growth. Stalagmite YLY20130727-12 (10-cm long) from Yilingyan Cave covers a continuous record of past 2300 years. All studied stalagmites in the caves contain low dead carbon fractions. The annual resolution δ18O and δ13C records obtained from the stalagmites allow us to compare the stalagmite δ18O records with the instrumental rainfall and temperature records, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Sunspot variation, etc. The δ18O and δ13C records exhibit relatively good correlation throughout the time, indicating climatic control on vegetation change. Based on the high-resolution δ18O and δ13C records, we interpret that dry climatic conditions and poor vegetation coverage during periods of AD1880~1850, 1700~1600, 1460~1320, 1210~1280, 860~750, 540~420, 300~220, and AD100~0 shown by increased δ18O and δ13C. The δ18O and δ13C were strongly depleted during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP between AD900 and AD1100) and Current Warm Period (CWP, since AD1900), reflecting strongly increased East Asian Summer Monsoon. After AD1900, the δ13C decreased about 6‰, perhaps indicating human impact on surface vegetation. The δ18O records from the study area are comparable to the published WX42B δ18O record of Wanxiang Cave (Zhang et al., 2008) except for the period of AD1400~1850. Our study suggests that AMS 14C dating is an alternative method for

  18. On the decadal scale correlation between African dust and Sahel rainfall: The role of Saharan heat low–forced winds

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Weijie; Evan, Amato T.; Flamant, Cyrille; Lavaysse, Christophe

    2015-01-01

    A large body of work has shown that year-to-year variations in North African dust emission are inversely proportional to previous-year monsoon rainfall in the Sahel, implying that African dust emission is highly sensitive to vegetation changes in this narrow transitional zone. However, such a theory is not supported by field observations or modeling studies, as both suggest that interannual variability in dust is due to changes in wind speeds over the major emitting regions, which lie to the north of the Sahelian vegetated zone. We reconcile this contradiction showing that interannual variability in Sahelian rainfall and surface wind speeds over the Sahara are the result of changes in lower tropospheric air temperatures over the Saharan heat low (SHL). As the SHL warms, an anomalous tropospheric circulation develops that reduces wind speeds over the Sahara and displaces the monsoonal rainfall northward, thus simultaneously increasing Sahelian rainfall and reducing dust emission from the major dust “hotspots” in the Sahara. Our results shed light on why climate models are, to date, unable to reproduce observed historical variability in dust emission and transport from this region. PMID:26601301

  19. BOBMEX: The Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhat, G. S.; Gadgil, S.; Hareesh Kumar, P. V.; Kalsi, S. R.; Madhusoodanan, P.; Murty, V. S. N.; Prasada Rao, C. V. K.; Babu, V. Ramesh; Rao, L. V. G.; Rao, R. R.; Ravichandran, M.; Reddy, K. G.; Sanjeeva Rao, P.; Sengupta, D.; Sikka, D. R.; Swain, J.; Vinayachandran, P. N.

    2001-10-01

    The first observational experiment under the Indian Climate Research Programme, called the Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX), was carried out during July-August 1999. BOBMEX was aimed at measurements of important variables of the atmosphere, ocean, and their interface to gain deeper insight into some of the processes that govern the variability of organized convection over the bay. Simultaneous time series observations were carried out in the northern and southern Bay of Bengal from ships and moored buoys. About 80 scientists from 15 different institutions in India collaborated during BOBMEX to make observations in most-hostile conditions of the raging monsoon. In this paper, the objectives and the design of BOBMEX are described and some initial results presented. During the BOBMEX field phase there were several active spells of convection over the bay, separated by weak spells. Observation with high-resolution radiosondes, launched for the first time over the northern bay, showed that the magnitudes of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the convective inhibition energy were comparable to those for the atmosphere over the west Pacific warm pool. CAPE decreased by 2-3 kJ kg-1 following convection, and recovered in a time period of 1-2 days. The surface wind speed was generally higher than 8 m s-1. The thermohaline structure as well as its time evolution during the BOBMEX field phase were found to be different in the northern bay than in the southern bay. Over both the regions, the SST decreased during rain events and increased in cloud-free conditions. Over the season as a whole, the upper-layer salinity decreased for the north bay and increased for the south bay. The variation in SST during 1999 was found to be of smaller amplitude than in 1998. Further analysis of the surface fluxes and currents is expected to give insight into the nature of coupling.

  20. Regionalization of Tibetan Plateau precipitation and its relation to the Asian Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conroy, J. L.; Overpeck, J. T.

    2008-12-01

    Many paleoclimate records from the Tibetan Plateau link past changes in local precipitation to Southwest (SW, or Indian) and East (E) Asian Monsoon variability. However, few of these records are correlated with instrumental records of local or regional monsoon variability. And, although the majority of Tibetan precipitation occurs in the summer months, a dearth of station data limits the connection of instrumental precipitation variability across Tibet to the Asian Monsoon regimes. To properly interpret proxy climate records, a quantitative understanding of Asian Monsoon influences on the Tibetan Plateau is required. With this goal in mind, we investigated precipitation variability across the Tibetan Plateau using monthly gridded merged precipitation (CMAP) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) datasets to quantify the relationship between summer precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau and the SW and E Asian Monsoons. Average summer OLR and precipitation are significantly correlated at the 95% confidence level between southwest, northwest, southeast Tibet and the central Himalayas, but average summer OLR and precipitation in northeast Tibet is only significantly correlated with OLR and precipitation in southeastern Tibet. OLR over the central Himalayas, southwest Tibet, and northwest Tibet correlates at the 95% confidence level with the Indian Monsoon Index, and precipitation in the central Himalayas correlates at the 95% confidence level with the Webster-Yang Index of SW Monsoon variability. OLR and precipitation over the central Himalayas, southwest Tibet, and northwest Tibet also significantly correlate with OLR and precipitation over India, as well as surface wind speed, 850 mb zonal, and 850 mb meridional wind speeds over the southwest Arabian Sea. These significant correlations indicate precipitation variability over western Tibet and the central Himalayas is related to SW Asian Monsoon variability. Correlations between southeastern and northeastern Tibet OLR

  1. Leaf unfolding of Tibetan alpine meadows captures the arrival of monsoon rainfall

    PubMed Central

    Li, Ruicheng; Luo, Tianxiang; Mölg, Thomas; Zhao, Jingxue; Li, Xiang; Cui, Xiaoyong; Du, Mingyuan; Tang, Yanhong

    2016-01-01

    The alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau is the highest and largest pasture in the world, and its formation and distribution are mainly controlled by Indian summer monsoon effects. However, little is known about how monsoon-related cues may trigger spring phenology of the vast alpine vegetation. Based on the 7-year observations with fenced and transplanted experiments across lower to upper limits of Kobresia meadows in the central plateau (4400–5200 m), we found that leaf unfolding dates of dominant sedge and grass species synchronized with monsoon onset, regardless of air temperature. We also found similar patterns in a 22-year data set from the northeast plateau. In the monsoon-related cues for leaf unfolding, the arrival of monsoon rainfall is crucial, while seasonal air temperatures are already continuously above 0 °C. In contrast, the early-emerging cushion species generally leafed out earlier in warmer years regardless of precipitation. Our data provide evidence that leaf unfolding of dominant species in the alpine meadows senses the arrival of monsoon-season rainfall. These findings also provide a basis for interpreting the spatially variable greening responses to warming detected in the world’s highest pasture, and suggest a phenological strategy for avoiding damages of pre-monsoon drought and frost to alpine plants. PMID:26856260

  2. Divergent pattern of nuclear genetic diversity across the range of the Afromontane Prunus africana mirrors variable climate of African highlands

    PubMed Central

    Kadu, Caroline A. C.; Konrad, Heino; Schueler, Silvio; Muluvi, Geoffrey M.; Eyog-Matig, Oscar; Muchugi, Alice; Williams, Vivienne L.; Ramamonjisoa, Lolona; Kapinga, Consolatha; Foahom, Bernard; Katsvanga, Cuthbert; Hafashimana, David; Obama, Crisantos; Geburek, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aims Afromontane forest ecosystems share a high similarity of plant and animal biodiversity, although they occur mainly on isolated mountain massifs throughout the continent. This resemblance has long provoked questions on former wider distribution of Afromontane forests. In this study Prunus africana (one of the character trees of Afromontane forests) is used as a model for understanding the biogeography of this vegetation zone. Methods Thirty natural populations from nine African countries covering a large part of Afromontane regions were analysed using six nuclear microsatellites. Standard population genetic analysis as well as Bayesian and maximum likelihood models were used to infer genetic diversity, population differentiation, barriers to gene flow, and recent and all migration among populations. Key Results Prunus africana exhibits strong divergence among five main Afromontane regions: West Africa, East Africa west of the Eastern Rift Valley (ERV), East Africa east of the ERV, southern Africa and Madagascar. The strongest divergence was evident between Madagascar and continental Africa. Populations from West Africa showed high similarity with East African populations west of the ERV, whereas populations east of the ERV are closely related to populations of southern Africa, respectively. Conclusions The observed patterns indicate divergent population history across the continent most likely associated to Pleistocene changes in climatic conditions. The high genetic similarity between populations of West Africa with population of East Africa west of the ERV is in agreement with faunistic and floristic patterns and provides further evidence for a historical migration route. Contrasting estimates of recent and historical gene flow indicate a shift of the main barrier to gene flow from the Lake Victoria basin to the ERV, highlighting the dynamic environmental and evolutionary history of the region. PMID:23250908

  3. Future change of the global monsoon revealed from 19 CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Pang-Chi; Li, Tim; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Kitoh, Akio

    2013-02-01

    The variability of global monsoon area (GMA), global monsoon precipitation (GMP), and global monsoon intensity (GMI) in the present climate (1979-2003) and the future warmer climate (2075-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario was examined based on 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. In the present-day simulations, the ensemble mean precipitation reproduces the observed GMA, GMP, and GMI, although the spread of individual models is large. In the RCP4.5 simulations, most (17 of 19) of the CMIP5 models project enhanced global monsoon activity, with the increases of GMA, GMP, and GMI by 1.9%, 3.2%, and 1.3%, respectively, per 1 K of surface warming. The diagnosis of a column-integrated moisture budget indicates that the increase in GMP is primarily attributed to the increases of moisture convergence and surface evaporation, whereas horizontal moisture advection has little effect. A further separation of dynamic and thermodynamic factors shows that increase of the moisture convergence comes mainly from the increase of water vapor, but is partly offset by the convergence effect. The increase of the surface evaporation is caused by the increase of sea-air specific humidity difference, while the change in surface wind speed plays a minor role. The GMP experiences a great year-to-year variation, and it is significantly negatively correlated with the Niño3.4 index averaged over a typical monsoon year (defined from May to the following April) in the pre-industrial control and present-day simulations, similar to observations. Under the RCP4.5 warming, such rainfall variability is intensified, and the relationship between monsoon and El Niño strengthens. A large proportion of intensification in the year-to-year monsoon rainfall variability arises from the land monsoon region.

  4. A Study of Mathematics and Science Achievement Scores among African American Students and the Impact of Teacher-Oriented Variables on Them through the Educational Longitudinal Study, 2002 (ELS: 2002) Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walker, Valentine

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this dissertation was to utilize the ELS: 2002 longitudinal data to highlight the achievement of African American students relative to other racial sub-groups in mathematics and science and to highlight teacher oriented variables that might influence their achievement. Various statistical tools, including descriptive statistics,…

  5. A study of mathematics and science achievement scores among African American students and the impact of teacher-oriented variables on them through the Educational Longitudinal Study, 2002 (ELS: 2002) data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, Valentine

    The purpose of this dissertation was to utilize the ELS: 2002 longitudinal data to highlight the achievement of African American students relative to other racial sub-groups in mathematics and science and to highlight teacher oriented variables that might influence their achievement. Various statistical tools, including descriptive statistics, ANOVA, Multiple Regression were used to analyze data that was derived from the students', teachers' and administrations' questionnaires compiled in the base year of the study (2002) as well as the first follow-up transcript study (2006). The major findings are as follows: African American students performed lower than all other major racial subgroups in mathematics and science; Parental variables including SES and parental education were strong correlates of achievement in mathematics and science: The amount and type of mathematics and science courses students took were strong predictors of achievement in mathematics and science; Teachers' race, experience, certification status, graduate courses completed and professional development influenced African American students' achievement in mathematics and science; Aspects of classroom climate including teacher-pupil relationship, classroom management, students' perception of quality instructions, praise and rewards system might influence African American students' achievement in mathematics and science; Teachers' beliefs pertaining to students' background and intellectual ability might influence their educational expectation of African American students and subsequently student achievement in mathematics and science; Teaching strategies such as reviewing, lecturing and using graphing calculators had a positive influence on mathematics achievement while using computers, discussion and using other books than mathematics textbooks had negative influences on mathematics achievement; Computer use in science had positive influence on science achievement while homework had a positive

  6. Influence of 21st century atmospheric and sea surface temperature forcing on West African climate

    SciTech Connect

    Skinner, Chris B; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2011-01-01

    he persistence of extended drought events throughout West Africa during the 20th century has motivated a substantial effort to understand the mechanisms driving African climate variability, as well as the possible response to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We use an ensemble of global climate model experiments to examine the relative roles of future direct atmospheric radiative forcing and SST forcing in shaping potential future changes in boreal summer precipitation over West Africa. We find that projected increases in precipitation throughout the Western Sahel result primarily from direct atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in atmospheric forcing generate a slight northward displacement and weakening of the African easterly jet (AEJ), a strengthening of westward monsoon flow onto West Africa and an intensification of the tropical easterly jet (TEJ). Alternatively, we find that the projected decreases in precipitation over much of the Guinea Coast region are caused by SST changes that are induced by the atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in SSTs generate a weakening of the monsoon westerlies and the TEJ, as well as a decrease in low-level convergence and resultant rising air throughout the mid levels of the troposphere. Our experiments suggest a potential shift in the regional moisture balance of West Africa should global radiative forcing continue to increase, highlighting the importance of climate system feedbacks in shaping the response of regional-scale climate to global-scale changes in radiative forcing.

  7. Global Monsoon Rainfall - What the future holds?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Endo, H.; Kitoh, A.; Kumar, K.; Cavalcanti, I. F.; Goswami, P.; Zhou, T.

    2012-12-01

    We provide a latest view of global as well as regional monsoonal rainfall and their changes in the twenty-first century as projected by state-of-the-art climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The global monsoon area (GMA) defined based on the annual range in precipitation will expand mainly over the central to eastern tropical Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean, and eastern Asia. The global monsoon intensity (GMI) and the global monsoon total precipitation (GMP) are likely to increase, implying that monsoon-related precipitation will remarkably increase in a warmer climate. Heavy precipitation indices are projected to increase much more than the mean precipitation, and their percentage changes depend more on the emission scenario compared to those for mean precipitation. Over the Asian monsoon domain, median increase rate for precipitation is larger than that over other monsoon domains, indicating that the sensitivity of Asian monsoon to global warming is stronger than that of other monsoons. For seasonal progress of monsoon rainfall, CMIP5 models project that the monsoon retreat dates will delay, while the onset dates will either advance or show no change, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season. It is found that the increase of the global monsoon precipitation can be attributed to the increases of moisture convergence due to increased water vapor in the air column and surface evaporation, offset to a certain extent by the weakening of the monsoon circulation (Figure 1).Figure 1: Time series of anomalies during summer season (%; 20 years running mean) relative to the base period average (1986-2005) over the land global monsoon domain for (a) precipitation (mm day-1), (b) evaporation (mm day-1), (c) water vapor flux convergence in the lower (below 500hPa) troposphere (mm day-1), and (d) wind convergence in the lower troposphere (10-3 kg m-2 s-1), based on 23 CMIP5 model monthly outputs. Historical (grey

  8. Late Miocene-Pliocene Asian monsoon intensification linked to Antarctic ice-sheet growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ao, Hong; Roberts, Andrew P.; Dekkers, Mark J.; Liu, Xiaodong; Rohling, Eelco J.; Shi, Zhengguo; An, Zhisheng; Zhao, Xiang

    2016-06-01

    Environmental conditions in one of Earth's most densely populated regions, East Asia, are dominated by the monsoon. While Quaternary monsoon variability is reasonably well understood, pre-Quaternary monsoon variability and dynamics remain enigmatic. In particular, little is known about potential relationships between northern hemispheric monsoon response and major Cenozoic changes in Antarctic ice cover. Here we document long-term East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensification through the Late Miocene-Pliocene (∼8.2 to 2.6 Ma), and attribute this to progressive Antarctic glaciation. Our new high-resolution magnetic records of long-term EASM intensification come from the Late Miocene-Pliocene Red Clay sequence on the Chinese Loess Plateau; we identify underlying mechanisms using a numerical climate-model simulation of EASM response to an idealized stepwise increase in Antarctic ice volume. We infer that progressive Antarctic glaciation caused intensification of the cross-equatorial pressure gradient between an atmospheric high-pressure cell over Australia and a low-pressure cell over mid-latitude East Asia, as well as intensification of the cross-equatorial sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient. These combined atmospheric and oceanic adjustments led to EASM intensification. Our findings offer a new and more global perspective on the controls behind long-term Asian monsoon evolution.

  9. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October-December) season

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Maneesha, K.

    2016-09-01

    In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall (June-September) and the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon (October-December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions (located in south India) (referred as rainfall index - RI), is positively and significantly correlated (r=0.59; significant at >99% level) with the TNDC during the period, 1984-2013. By using the first differences (current season minus previous season), the correlations are enhanced and a remarkably high correlation of 0.87 is observed between TNDC and RI for the recent period, 1993-2013. The average seasonal genesis potential parameter (GPP) showed a very high correlation of 0.84 with the TNDC. A very high correlation of 0.83 is observed between GPP and RI for the period, 1993-2013. The relative vorticity and mid-tropospheric relative humidity are found to be the dominant terms in GPP. The GPP was 3.5 times higher in above (below) normal RI in which TNDC was 4 (2). It is inferred that RI is playing a key role in TNDC by modulating the environmental conditions (low level vorticity and relative humidity) over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season which could be seen from the very high correlation of 0.87 (which explains 76% variability in TNDC). For the first time, we show that RI is a precursor for the TNDC over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season. Strong westerlies after the SW monsoon season transport moisture over the subdivisions towards Bay of Bengal due to cyclonic circulation. This circulation favours upward motion and hence transport moisture vertically to mid-troposphere which causes convective instability and this in turn favour more number of TNDC, under above-normal RI year.

  10. GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Wang, Bin; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

    2016-10-01

    The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the "Grand Challenges" proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), "historical" simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.

  11. Socio-Demographic Variables, General Psychological Well-Being and the Mental Health Continuum in an African Context

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Khumalo, I. P.; Temane, Q. M.; Wissing, M. P.

    2012-01-01

    Age, gender, marital status, education attainment, employment status, and environmental setting explain different amounts of variance in psychological well-being and mental health. Inconsistent findings are reported for the socio-demographic variables in psychological well-being depending amongst others on the definition and measurement of…

  12. Inter-annual Tropospheric Aerosol Variability in Late Twentieth Century and its Impact on Tropical Atlantic and West African Climate by Direct and Semi-direct Effects

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, Katherine J; Hack, James J; Truesdale, John; Mahajan, Salil; Lamarque, J-F

    2012-01-01

    A new high-resolution (0.9$^{\\circ}$x1.25$^{\\circ}$ in the horizontal) global tropospheric aerosol dataset with monthly resolution is generated using the finite-volume configuration of Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a bulk aerosol model and forced with recent estimates of surface emissions for the latter part of twentieth century. The surface emissions dataset is constructed from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) decadal-resolution surface emissions dataset to include REanalysis of TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO) wildfire monthly emissions dataset. Experiments forced with the new tropospheric aerosol dataset and conducted using the spectral configuration of CAM4 with a T85 truncation (1.4$^{\\circ}$x1.4$^{\\circ}$) with prescribed twentieth century observed sea surface temperature, sea-ice and greenhouse gases reveal that variations in tropospheric aerosol levels can induce significant regional climate variability on the inter-annual timescales. Regression analyses over tropical Atlantic and Africa reveal that increasing dust aerosols can cool the North African landmass and shift convection southwards from West Africa into the Gulf of Guinea in the spring season in the simulations. Further, we find that increasing carbonaceous aerosols emanating from the southwestern African savannas can cool the region significantly and increase the marine stratocumulus cloud cover over the southeast tropical Atlantic ocean by aerosol-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere above the low clouds. Experiments conducted with CAM4 coupled to a slab ocean model suggest that present day aerosols can shift the ITCZ southwards over the tropical Atlantic and can reduce the ocean mixed layer temperature beneath the increased marine stratocumulus clouds in the southeastern tropical Atlantic.

  13. Impact of biennial SST oscillation on the Southeast Asian summer monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, J.; Kim, K. Y.

    2014-12-01

    How the biennial oscillation of global SST, one of the main components of ENSO, affects the Southeast Asia summer monsoon is analyzed. The biennial mode is extracted from the 142-year (1871-2012) Extended Reconstruction SST version 3 data using cyclostationary EOF (CSEOF) analysis. Based on regression analysis in CSEOF space, evolutions of key atmospheric variables are obtained to be consistent with the long-term variation of the biennial mode. Atmospheric variables are derived from the twentieth century (20C) reanalysis version 2 data. The biennial oscillation, primarily in the tropical Pacific, influences the monsoons in the Indo-Pacific region. Summer monsoonal change can be explained in terms of the change in monsoon precipitation accompanied with low-level moisture convergence and large-scale atmospheric circulation. In the equatorial region, SST anomaly directly triggers the vertical motion and horizontal wind such that zonal circulation across the Pacific and Indian Oceans is set up. In the subtropical Asian region, both cyclonic or anticyclonic circulation over the northwestern Pacific and the meridional circulation over the Indo-Pacific region induced by the equatorial SST change affects the Southeast Asian monsoon, and henceforth the monsoon precipitation. When positive SST anomaly develops in the eastern tropical Pacific, precipitation decreases over the tropical Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent (10°S-5°N, 40°-150°E) and increases over Southeast Asia (5°N-20°N, 90°-150°E). With negative SST anomaly in the eastern tropical Pacific, the situation reverses. Based on the spatio-temporal evolution patterns for key physical variables and corresponding long-term variability, physical link through atmosphere-ocean interactions is explored between the biennial mode of SST and the Southeast Asian summer monsoon.

  14. Assessing the strength of the monsoon during the late Pleistocene in southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cisneros-Dozal, Luz M.; Huang, Yongsong; Heikoop, Jeffrey M.; Fawcett, Peter J.; Fessenden, Julianna; Anderson, R. Scott; Meyers, Philip A.; Larson, Toti; Perkins, George; Toney, Jaime; Werne, Josef P.; Goff, Fraser; WoldeGabriel, Giday; Allen, Craig D.; Berke, Melissa A.

    2014-11-01

    Improved predictions of drought require an understanding of natural and human-induced climate variability. Long-term records across glacial-interglacial cycles provide the natural component of variability, however few such records exist for the southwestern United States (US) and quantitative or semi-quantitative records of precipitation are absent. Here we use the hydrogen isotope (δD) value of C28n-alkanoic acid in lacustrine sediments of Pleistocene age to reconstruct δD values of precipitation in northern New Mexico over two glacial-interglacial cycles (˜550,000-360,000 years before present) and obtain a record of monsoon strength. Overall, reconstructed δD values range from -53.8‰ to -94.4‰, with a mean value of -77.5 ± 8‰. Remarkably, this variation falls within the measured present-day summer monsoonal and winter weighted means (-50.3 ± 3‰ and -106.4 ± 20‰ respectively), suggesting that processes similar to those of present time also controlled precipitation during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 13 to 10. Using the δD summer monsoonal and winter mean values as end-members, we interpret our reconstructed δD record of precipitation as a direct, and semi-quantitative, indicator of monsoon strength during MIS 13 to 10. Interglacial periods were characterized by greater monsoon strength but also greater variability compared to glacial periods. Pronounced cycles in the strength of the monsoon occurred during interglacial periods and in general were positively correlated with maximum mean annual temperatures. Our estimates of monsoon strength are supported by independent proxies of ecosystem productivity, namely, TOC, δ13C of TOC and Si/Ti ratio and warm pollen taxa Juniperus and Quercus. Interglacial variability in the strength of the monsoon resembles a response to the land-sea surface temperature contrast (LSTC) except for the early part of MIS 11. During this period, LSTC would have remained relatively strong while monsoonal strength decreased

  15. Variable light environments induce plastic spectral tuning by regional opsin coexpression in the African cichlid fish, Metriaclima zebra.

    PubMed

    Dalton, Brian E; Lu, Jessica; Leips, Jeff; Cronin, Thomas W; Carleton, Karen L

    2015-08-01

    Critical behaviours such as predation and mate choice often depend on vision. Visual systems are sensitive to the spectrum of light in their environment, which can vary extensively both within and among habitats. Evolutionary changes in spectral sensitivity contribute to divergence and speciation. Spectral sensitivity of the retina is primarily determined by visual pigments, which are opsin proteins bound to a chromophore. We recently discovered that photoreceptors in different regions of the retina, which view objects against distinct environmental backgrounds, coexpress different pairs of opsins in an African cichlid fish, Metriaclima zebra. This coexpression tunes the sensitivity of the retinal regions to the corresponding backgrounds and may aid in detection of dark objects, such as predators. Although intraretinal regionalization of spectral sensitivity in many animals correlates with their light environments, it is unknown whether variation in the light environment induces developmentally plastic alterations of intraretinal sensitivity regions. Here, we demonstrate with fluorescent in situ hybridization and qPCR that the spectrum and angle of environmental light both influence the development of spectral sensitivity regions by altering the distribution and level of opsins across the retina. Normally, M. zebra coexpresses LWS opsin with RH2Aα opsin in double cones of the ventral but not the dorsal retina. However, when illuminated from below throughout development, adult M. zebra coexpressed LWS and RH2Aα in double cones both dorsally and ventrally. Thus, environmental background spectra alter the spectral sensitivity pattern that develops across the retina, potentially influencing behaviours and related evolutionary processes such as courtship and speciation. PMID:26175094

  16. Variable light environments induce plastic spectral tuning by regional opsin coexpression in the African cichlid fish, Metriaclima zebra

    PubMed Central

    Dalton, Brian E.; Lu, Jessica; Leips, Jeff; Cronin, Thomas W.; Carleton, Karen L.

    2015-01-01

    Critical behaviors such as predation and mate choice often depend on vision. Visual systems are sensitive to the spectrum of light in their environment, which can vary extensively both within and among habitats. Evolutionary changes in spectral sensitivity contribute to divergence and speciation. Spectral sensitivity of the retina is primarily determined by visual pigments, which are opsin proteins bound to a chromophore. We recently discovered that photoreceptors in different regions of the retina, which view objects against distinct environmental backgrounds, coexpress different pairs of opsins in an African cichlid fish, Metriaclima zebra. This coexpression tunes the sensitivity of the retinal regions to the corresponding backgrounds and may aid detection of dark objects, such as predators. Although intraretinal regionalization of spectral sensitivity in many animals correlates with their light environments, it is unknown whether variation in the light environment induces developmentally plastic alterations of intraretinal sensitivity regions. Here, we demonstrate with fluorescent in situ hybridization and qPCR that the spectrum and angle of environmental light both influence the development of spectral sensitivity regions by altering the distribution and level of opsins across the retina. Normally M. zebra coexpresses LWS opsin with RH2Aα opsin in double cones of the ventral but not the dorsal retina. However, when illuminated from below throughout development, adult M. zebra coexpressed LWS and RH2Aα in double cones both dorsally and ventrally. Thus, environmental background spectra alter the spectral sensitivity pattern that develops across the retina, potentially influencing behaviors and related evolutionary processes such as courtship and speciation. PMID:26175094

  17. The time-transgressive termination of the African Humid Period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shanahan, Timothy M.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Hughen, Konrad A.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Heil, Clifford W.; King, John; Scholz, Christopher A.; Peck, John

    2015-02-01

    During the African Humid Period about 14,800 to 5,500 years ago, changes in incoming solar radiation during Northern Hemisphere summers led to the large-scale expansion and subsequent collapse of the African monsoon. Hydrologic reconstructions from arid North Africa show an abrupt onset and termination of the African Humid Period. These abrupt transitions have been invoked in arguments that the African monsoon responds rapidly to gradual forcing as a result of nonlinear land surface feedbacks. Here we present a reconstruction of precipitation in humid tropical West Africa for the past 20,000 years using the hydrogen isotope composition of leaf waxes preserved in sediments from Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana. We show that over much of tropical and subtropical Africa the monsoon responded synchronously and predictably to glacial reorganizations of overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, but the response to the relatively weaker radiative forcing during the African Humid Period was more spatially and temporally complex. A synthesis of hydrologic reconstructions from across Africa shows that the termination of the African Humid Period was locally abrupt, but occurred progressively later at lower latitudes. We propose that this time-transgressive termination of the African Humid Period reflects declining rainfall intensity induced directly by decreasing summer insolation as well as the gradual southward migration of the tropical rainbelt that occurred during this interval.

  18. The East Asian subtropical summer monsoon: Recent progress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Jinhai; Liu, Boqi

    2016-04-01

    The East Asian subtropical summer monsoon (EASSM) is one component of the East Asian summer monsoon system, and its evolution determines the weather and climate over East China. In the present paper, we firstly demonstrate the formation and advancement of the EASSM rainbelt and its associated circulation and precipitation patterns through reviewing recent studies and our own analysis based on JRA-55 (Japanese 55-yr Reanalysis) data and CMAP (CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) precipitation data. The results show that the rainy season of the EASSM starts over the region to the south of the Yangtze River in early April, with the establishment of strong southerly wind in situ. The EASSM rainfall, which is composed of dominant convective and minor stratiform precipitation, is always accompanied by a frontal system and separated from the tropical summer monsoon system. It moves northward following the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon. Moreover, the role of the land-sea thermal contrast in the formation and maintenance of the EASSM is illustrated, including in particular the effect of the seasonal transition of the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and the influences from the Tibetan Plateau and midlatitudes. In addition, we reveal a possible reason for the subtropical climate difference between East Asia and East America. Finally, the multi-scale variability of the EASSM and its influential factors are summarized to uncover possible reasons for the intraseasonal, interannual, and interdecadal variability of the EASSM and their importance in climate prediction.

  19. Intra-seasonal variability of precipitation over the Guinean coast and Central Africa: analysis of a 15-day mode of variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Honoré Kamsu Tamo, Pierre; Janicot, Serge; Monkam, David; Lenouo, André

    2013-04-01

    The main objective of this study is to characterize the intra-seasonal scales variability (ISV) of precipitation over the Guinean coast and Central Africa during the spring (MAMJ). This has been done by applying statistical methods widely used in previous studies on the West African summer Monsoon. The data used here cover the period 1998-2010 and are derived from satellite products for rainfall (TRMM 3B42) and convection (NOAA OLR, CLAUS Brightness's Temperature). To characterize the atmospheric pattern associated to each ISV mode, we used the ERA-Interim reanalyses over the period 1998 to 2010. At intra-seasonal timescale, three main modes, corresponding to those of the West African summer Monsoon have been highlighted. At the 10-25-day scale, regression analysis between a precipitation index over the Guinea coast and atmospheric fields enables to identify a dominant mode of variability associated with an oscillation of convective activity along the Guinean coast, probably triggered by an eastward Kelvin wave. The analysis of the spatio-temporal structure of this mode shows a dipole of convection centered on the coast of Guinea, with a wavelength ~ 10000 km. It relates the enhancement of rainfall activity over the coast of Guinea to the activation of the monsoon westerly wind component due to the arrival from the west of a high pressure field, thus generated the zonal wind component associated to Kelvin wave dynamics. This structure slows down and remains almost stationary for a few days over the Guinean coast before moving eastward. Keywords: Gulf of Guinea, Convection, Intra-Seasonal Variability, Spring, Regression Analysis, Kelvin Wave

  20. Adaptive management and water temperature variability within a South African river system: what are the management options?

    PubMed

    Rivers-Moore, N A; Jewitt, G P W

    2007-01-01

    Water temperatures, and in particular daily maximum water temperatures, are a critical water quality parameter. An understanding of associated resource management issues, including links between water temperature variability and aquatic diversity values, should be part of any management programme that considers river systems. Simple rule-based models have been shown to be appropriate tools within an adaptive management approach, both because of their heuristic value and in their application for scenario generation. Such a model was developed to simulate changes in the condition factor of Chiloglanis anoterus [Crass, R.S., 1960. Notes on the freshwater fishes of Natal with descriptions of 4 new species. Annals of the Natal Museum 14, 405-458] (Pisces: Mochokidae) in response to annual frequency of exceedance of a threshold temperature under three broad environmental scenarios for part of the Sabie River falling within South Africa's Kruger National Park. This model has potential for application within the adaptive management programme being implemented by the Kruger National Park. Results show that under broad scenarios of a 10% reduction in mean daily flow rates, or a 2 degrees C increase in mean daily air temperatures, system variability is likely to increase relative to reference conditions . It is suggested that so-called "thresholds of probable concern" (TPCs), which are based on current levels of "natural" system variability, are useful as management targets for achieving a "desired future state" for the river system. The model, recognised as a preliminary hypothesis, highlights a lack of knowledge regarding the nature of system variability, and the correspondingly wide confidence limits of the proposed TPC restricts its utility in a short-term management context. Thus, it is now recognised that its value lies more in its use as a long-term modelling tool to reflect water temperature responses to flow variability. This highlights the fact that research

  1. Adaptive management and water temperature variability within a South African river system: what are the management options?

    PubMed

    Rivers-Moore, N A; Jewitt, G P W

    2007-01-01

    Water temperatures, and in particular daily maximum water temperatures, are a critical water quality parameter. An understanding of associated resource management issues, including links between water temperature variability and aquatic diversity values, should be part of any management programme that considers river systems. Simple rule-based models have been shown to be appropriate tools within an adaptive management approach, both because of their heuristic value and in their application for scenario generation. Such a model was developed to simulate changes in the condition factor of Chiloglanis anoterus [Crass, R.S., 1960. Notes on the freshwater fishes of Natal with descriptions of 4 new species. Annals of the Natal Museum 14, 405-458] (Pisces: Mochokidae) in response to annual frequency of exceedance of a threshold temperature under three broad environmental scenarios for part of the Sabie River falling within South Africa's Kruger National Park. This model has potential for application within the adaptive management programme being implemented by the Kruger National Park. Results show that under broad scenarios of a 10% reduction in mean daily flow rates, or a 2 degrees C increase in mean daily air temperatures, system variability is likely to increase relative to reference conditions . It is suggested that so-called "thresholds of probable concern" (TPCs), which are based on current levels of "natural" system variability, are useful as management targets for achieving a "desired future state" for the river system. The model, recognised as a preliminary hypothesis, highlights a lack of knowledge regarding the nature of system variability, and the correspondingly wide confidence limits of the proposed TPC restricts its utility in a short-term management context. Thus, it is now recognised that its value lies more in its use as a long-term modelling tool to reflect water temperature responses to flow variability. This highlights the fact that research

  2. Quantifying the morphometric variability of monogenetic cones in volcanic fields: the Virunga Volcanic Province, East African Rift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poppe, Sam; Grosse, Pablo; Barette, Florian; Smets, Benoît; Albino, Fabien; Kervyn, François; Kervyn, Matthieu

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic cone fields are gener