Modeling Explosion Induced Aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroll, K.; Ford, S. R.; Pitarka, A.; Walter, W. R.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.

2017-12-01

Many traditional earthquake-explosion discrimination tools are based on properties of the seismic waveform or their spectral components. Common discrimination methods include estimates of body wave amplitude ratios, surface wave magnitude scaling, moment tensor characteristics, and depth. Such methods are limited by station coverage and noise. Ford and Walter (2010) proposed an alternate discrimination method based on using properties of aftershock sequences as a means of earthquakeexplosion differentiation. Previous studies have shown that explosion sources produce fewer aftershocks that are generally smaller in magnitude compared to aftershocks of similarly sized earthquake sources (Jarpe et al., 1994, Ford and Walter, 2010). It has also been suggested that the explosion-induced aftershocks have smaller Gutenberg- Richter b-values (Ryall and Savage, 1969) and that their rates decay faster than a typical Omori-like sequence (Gross, 1996). To discern whether these observations are generally true of explosions or are related to specific site conditions (e.g. explosion proximity to active faults, tectonic setting, crustal stress magnitudes) would require a thorough global analysis. Such a study, however, is hindered both by lack of evenly distributed explosion-sources and the availability of global seismicity data. Here, we employ two methods to test the efficacy of explosions at triggering aftershocks under a variety of physical conditions. First, we use the earthquake rate equations from Dieterich (1994) to compute the rate of aftershocks related to an explosion source assuming a simple spring-slider model. We compare seismicity rates computed with these analytical solutions to those produced by the 3D, multi-cycle earthquake simulator, RSQSim. We explore the relationship between geological conditions and the characteristics of the resulting explosion-induced aftershock sequence. We also test hypothesis that aftershock generation is dependent upon the frequency content of the passing dynamic seismic waves as suggested by Parsons and Velasco (2009). Lastly, we compare all results of explosion-induced aftershocks with aftershocks generated by similarly sized earthquake sources. Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Aftershock Energy Distribution by Statistical Mechanics Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daminelli, R.; Marcellini, A.

2015-12-01

The aim of our work is to research the most probable distribution of the energy of aftershocks. We started by applying one of the fundamental principles of statistical mechanics that, in case of aftershock sequences, it could be expressed as: the greater the number of different ways in which the energy of aftershocks can be arranged among the energy cells in phase space the more probable the distribution. We assume that each cell in phase space has the same possibility to be occupied, and that more than one cell in the phase space can have the same energy. Seeing that seismic energy is proportional to products of different parameters, a number of different combinations of parameters can produce different energies (e.g., different combination of stress drop and fault area can release the same seismic energy). Let us assume that there are gi cells in the aftershock phase space characterised by the same energy released ɛi. Therefore we can assume that the Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics can be applied to aftershock sequences with the proviso that the judgment on the validity of this hypothesis is the agreement with the data. The aftershock energy distribution can therefore be written as follow: n(ɛ)=Ag(ɛ)exp(-βɛ)where n(ɛ) is the number of aftershocks with energy, ɛ, A and β are constants. Considering the above hypothesis, we can assume g(ɛ) is proportional to ɛ. We selected and analysed different aftershock sequences (data extracted from Earthquake Catalogs of SCEC, of INGV-CNT and other institutions) with a minimum magnitude retained ML=2 (in some cases ML=2.6) and a time window of 35 days. The results of our model are in agreement with the data, except in the very low energy band, where our model resulted in a moderate overestimation.

Internal tectonic structure of the Central American Wadati-Benioff zone based on analysis of aftershock sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Å PičáK, Aleš; Hanuš, VáClav; VaněK, JiřÃ.­; BěHounková, Marie

2007-09-01

Relocated Engdahl et al. (1998) global seismological data for 10 aftershock sequences were used to analyze the internal tectonic structure of the Central American subduction zone; the main shocks of several of these were the most destructive and often referenced earthquakes in the region (e.g., the 1970 Chiapas, 1983 Osa, 1992 Nicaragua, 1999 Quepos, 2001 El Salvador earthquakes). The spatial analysis of aftershock foci distribution was performed in a rotated Cartesian coordinate system (x, y, z) related to the Wadati-Benioff zone, and not in a standard coordinate system (ϕ, λ, h are latitude, longitude, focal depth, respectively). Available fault plane solutions were also transformed into the plane approximating the Wadati-Benioff zone. The spatial distribution of earthquakes in each aftershock sequence was modeled as either a plane fit using a least squares approximation or a volume fit with a minimum thickness rectangular box. The analysis points to a quasi-planar distribution of earthquake foci in all aftershock sequences, manifesting the appurtenance of aftershocks to fracture zones. Geometrical parameters of fracture zones (strike, dip, and dimensions) hosting individual sequences were calculated and compared with the seafloor morphology of the Cocos Plate. The smooth character of the seafloor correlates with the aftershock fracture zones oriented parallel to the trench and commonly subparallel to the subducting slab, whereas subduction of the Cocos Ridge and seamounts around the Quepos Plateau coincides with steeply dipping fracture zones. Transformed focal mechanisms are almost exclusively (>90%) of normal character.

Internal tectonic structure of the Central American Wadati-Benioff zone based on analysis of aftershock sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Špičák, Aleš; Hanuš, Václav; Vaněk, Jiří; Běhounková, Marie

2007-09-01

Relocated Engdahl et al. (1998) global seismological data for 10 aftershock sequences were used to analyze the internal tectonic structure of the Central American subduction zone; the main shocks of several of these were the most destructive and often referenced earthquakes in the region (e.g., the 1970 Chiapas, 1983 Osa, 1992 Nicaragua, 1999 Quepos, 2001 El Salvador earthquakes). The spatial analysis of aftershock foci distribution was performed in a rotated Cartesian coordinate system (x, y, z) related to the Wadati-Benioff zone, and not in a standard coordinate system ($\\varphi$, λ, h are latitude, longitude, focal depth, respectively). Available fault plane solutions were also transformed into the plane approximating the Wadati-Benioff zone. The spatial distribution of earthquakes in each aftershock sequence was modeled as either a plane fit using a least squares approximation or a volume fit with a minimum thickness rectangular box. The analysis points to a quasi-planar distribution of earthquake foci in all aftershock sequences, manifesting the appurtenance of aftershocks to fracture zones. Geometrical parameters of fracture zones (strike, dip, and dimensions) hosting individual sequences were calculated and compared with the seafloor morphology of the Cocos Plate. The smooth character of the seafloor correlates with the aftershock fracture zones oriented parallel to the trench and commonly subparallel to the subducting slab, whereas subduction of the Cocos Ridge and seamounts around the Quepos Plateau coincides with steeply dipping fracture zones. Transformed focal mechanisms are almost exclusively (>90%) of normal character.

Analysing the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes with recent instrumentally recorded aftershocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, K.; Hough, S.E.; Bilham, R.

2004-01-01

Although dynamic stress changes associated with the passage of seismic waves are thought to trigger earthquakes at great distances, more than 60 per cent of all aftershocks appear to be triggered by static stress changes within two rupture lengths of a mainshock. The observed distribution of aftershocks may thus be used to infer details of mainshock rupture geometry. Aftershocks following large mid-continental earthquakes, where background stressing rates are low, are known to persist for centuries, and models based on rate-and-state friction laws provide theoretical support for this inference. Most past studies of the New Madrid earthquake sequence have indeed assumed ongoing microseismicity to be a continuing aftershock sequence. Here we use instrumentally recorded aftershock locations and models of elastic stress change to develop a kinematically consistent rupture scenario for three of the four largest earthquakes of the 1811-1812 New Madrid sequence. Our results suggest that these three events occurred on two contiguous faults, producing lobes of increased stress near fault intersections and end points, in areas where present-day microearthquakes have been hitherto interpreted as evidence of primary mainshock rupture. We infer that the remaining New Madrid mainshock may have occurred more than 200 km north of this region in the Wabash Valley of southern Indiana and Illinois-an area that contains abundant modern microseismicity, and where substantial liquefaction was documented by historic accounts. Our results suggest that future large midplate earthquake sequences may extend over a much broader region than previously suspected.

Mainshock-aftershock clustering in volcanic regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Giron, Ricardo Garza; Brodsky, Emily E.; Prejean, Stephanie

2018-01-01

swarms and mainshock-aftershock sequences. The former is commonly thought to dominate in volcanic and geothermal regions, but aftershock production, including within swarms, is not well studied in volcanic regions. Here we compare mainshock-aftershock clustering in active volcanic regions in Japan to nearby nonvolcanic regions. We find that aftershock production is similar in both areas by two separate metrics: (1) Both volcanic and nonvolcanic regions have similar proportions of areas that cluster into mainshock-aftershock sequences. (2) Volcanic areas with mainshock-aftershock sequences have aftershock productivity at least as high as nonvolcanic regions. We also find that volcano-tectonic events that are precursors to an eruption are more common at volcanoes without mainshock-aftershock clusters than at volcanoes with well-defined mainshock-aftershock clusters. This last finding hints at a strategy to identify volcanic systems where cataloged earthquakes are good predictors of behavior.

The 3-D aftershock distribution of three recent M5~5.5 earthquakes in the Anza region,California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Q.; Wdowinski, S.; Lin, G.

2011-12-01

The San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) exhibits the highest level of seismicity compared to other regions in southern California. On average, it produces four earthquakes per day, most of them at depth of 10-17 km. Over the past decade, an increasing seismic activity occurred in the Anza region, which included three M5~5.5 events and their aftershock sequences. These events occurred in 2001, 2005, and 2010. In this research we map the 3-D distribution of these three events to evaluate their rupture geometry and better understand the unusual deep seismic pattern along the SJFZ, which was termed "deep creep" (Wdowinski, 2009). We relocated 97,562 events from 1981 to 2011 in Anza region by applying the Source-Specific Station Term (SSST) method (Lin et al., 2006) and used an accurate 1-D velocity model derived from 3-D model of Lin et al (2007) and used In order to separate the aftershock sequence from background seismicity, we characterized each of the three aftershock sequences using Omori's law. Preliminary results show that all three sequences had a similar geometry of deep elongated aftershock distribution. Most aftershocks occurred at depth of 10-17 km and extended over a 70 km long segments of the SJFZ, centered at the mainshock hypocenters. A comparative study of other M5~5.5 mainshocks and their aftershock sequences in southern California reveals very different geometrical pattern, suggesting that the three Anza M5~5.5 events are unique and can be indicative of "deep creep" deformation processes. Reference 1.Lin, G.and Shearer,P.M.,2006, The COMPLOC earthquake location package,Seism. Res. Lett.77, pp.440-444. 2.Lin, G. and Shearer, P.M., Hauksson, E., and Thurber C.H.,2007, A three-dimensional crustal seismic velocity model for southern California from a composite event method,J. Geophys.Res.112, B12306, doi: 10.1029/ 2007JB004977. 3.Wdowinski, S. ,2009, Deep creep as a cause for the excess seismicity along the San Jacinto fault, Nat. Geosci.,doi:10.1038/NGEO684.

Mainshock-Aftershock Clustering in Volcanic Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garza-Giron, Ricardo; Brodsky, Emily E.; Prejean, Stephanie G.

2018-02-01

Earthquakes break their general Poissonean behavior through two types of seismic bursts: swarms and mainshock-aftershock sequences. The former is commonly thought to dominate in volcanic and geothermal regions, but aftershock production, including within swarms, is not well studied in volcanic regions. Here we compare mainshock-aftershock clustering in active volcanic regions in Japan to nearby nonvolcanic regions. We find that aftershock production is similar in both areas by two separate metrics: (1) Both volcanic and nonvolcanic regions have similar proportions of areas that cluster into mainshock-aftershock sequences. (2) Volcanic areas with mainshock-aftershock sequences have aftershock productivity at least as high as nonvolcanic regions. We also find that volcano-tectonic events that are precursors to an eruption are more common at volcanoes without mainshock-aftershock clusters than at volcanoes with well-defined mainshock-aftershock clusters. This last finding hints at a strategy to identify volcanic systems where cataloged earthquakes are good predictors of behavior.

Aftershock Forecasting: Recent Developments and Lessons from the 2016 M5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, A. J.; Field, E. H.; Hardebeck, J.; Llenos, A. L.; Milner, K. R.; Page, M. T.; Perry, S. C.; van der Elst, N.; Wein, A. M.

2016-12-01

After the Mw 5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma, earthquake of September 3, 2016 the USGS issued a series of aftershock forecasts for the next month and year. These forecasts were aimed at the emergency response community, those making decisions about well operations in the affected region, and the general public. The forecasts were generated manually using methods planned for automatically released Operational Aftershock Forecasts. The underlying method is from Reasenberg and Jones (Science, 1989) with improvements recently published in Page et al. (BSSA, 2016), implemented in a JAVA Graphical User Interface and presented in a template that is under development. The methodological improvements include initial models based on the tectonic regime as defined by Garcia et al. (BSSA, 2012) and the inclusion of both uncertainty in the clustering parameters and natural random variability. We did not utilize the time-dependent magnitude of completeness model from Page et al. because it applies only to teleseismic events recorded by NEIC. The parameters for Garcia's Generic Active Continental Region underestimated the modified-Omori decay parameter and underestimated the aftershock rate by a factor of 2. And the sequence following the Mw 5.7 Prague, Oklahoma, earthquake of November 6, 2011 was about 3 to 4 times more productive than the Pawnee sequence. The high productivity for these potentially induced sequences is consistent with an increase in productivity in Oklahoma since 2009 (Llenos and Michael, BSSA, 2013) and makes a general tectonic model inapplicable to sequences in this region. Soon after the mainshock occurred, the forecasts relied on the sequence specific parameters. After one month, the Omori decay parameter p is less than one, implying a very long-lived sequence. However, the decay parameter is known to be biased low at early times due to secondary aftershock triggering, and the p-value determined early in the sequence may be inaccurate for long-term forecasting.

The Mw 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake of August 2011 and aftershock sequence: constraints on earthquake source parameters and fault geometry

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNamara, Daniel E.; Benz, H.M.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Bergman, Eric A.; Earle, Paul; Meltzer, Anne; Withers, Mitch; Chapman, Martin

2014-01-01

The Mw 5.8 earthquake of 23 August 2011 (17:51:04 UTC) (moment, M0 5.7×1017  N·m) occurred near Mineral, Virginia, within the central Virginia seismic zone and was felt by more people than any other earthquake in United States history. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received 148,638 felt reports from 31 states and 4 Canadian provinces. The USGS PAGER system estimates as many as 120,000 people were exposed to shaking intensity levels of IV and greater, with approximately 10,000 exposed to shaking as high as intensity VIII. Both regional and teleseismic moment tensor solutions characterize the earthquake as a northeast‐striking reverse fault that nucleated at a depth of approximately 7±2  km. The distribution of reported macroseismic intensities is roughly ten times the area of a similarly sized earthquake in the western United States (Horton and Williams, 2012). Near‐source and far‐field damage reports, which extend as far away as Washington, D.C., (135 km away) and Baltimore, Maryland, (200 km away) are consistent with an earthquake of this size and depth in the eastern United States (EUS). Within the first few days following the earthquake, several government and academic institutions installed 36 portable seismograph stations in the epicentral region, making this among the best‐recorded aftershock sequences in the EUS. Based on modeling of these data, we provide a detailed description of the source parameters of the mainshock and analysis of the subsequent aftershock sequence for defining the fault geometry, area of rupture, and observations of the aftershock sequence magnitude–frequency and temporal distribution. The observed slope of the magnitude–frequency curve or b‐value for the aftershock sequence is consistent with previous EUS studies (b=0.75), suggesting that most of the accumulated strain was released by the mainshock. The aftershocks define a rupture that extends between approximately 2–8 km in depth and 8–10 km along the strike of the fault plane. Best‐fit modeling of the geometry of the aftershock sequence defines a rupture plane that strikes N36°E and dips to the east‐southeast at 49.5°. Moment tensor solutions of the mainshock and larger aftershocks are consistent with the distribution of aftershock locations, both indicating reverse slip along a northeast–southwest striking southeast‐dipping fault plane.

Testing the Predictive Power of Coulomb Stress on Aftershock Sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woessner, J.; Lombardi, A.; Werner, M. J.; Marzocchi, W.

2009-12-01

Empirical and statistical models of clustered seismicity are usually strongly stochastic and perceived to be uninformative in their forecasts, since only marginal distributions are used, such as the Omori-Utsu and Gutenberg-Richter laws. In contrast, so-called physics-based aftershock models, based on seismic rate changes calculated from Coulomb stress changes and rate-and-state friction, make more specific predictions: anisotropic stress shadows and multiplicative rate changes. We test the predictive power of models based on Coulomb stress changes against statistical models, including the popular Short Term Earthquake Probabilities and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences models: We score and compare retrospective forecasts on the aftershock sequences of the 1992 Landers, USA, the 1997 Colfiorito, Italy, and the 2008 Selfoss, Iceland, earthquakes. To quantify predictability, we use likelihood-based metrics that test the consistency of the forecasts with the data, including modified and existing tests used in prospective forecast experiments within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Our results indicate that a statistical model performs best. Moreover, two Coulomb model classes seem unable to compete: Models based on deterministic Coulomb stress changes calculated from a given fault-slip model, and those based on fixed receiver faults. One model of Coulomb stress changes does perform well and sometimes outperforms the statistical models, but its predictive information is diluted, because of uncertainties included in the fault-slip model. Our results suggest that models based on Coulomb stress changes need to incorporate stochastic features that represent model and data uncertainty.

Nonlinear Viscoelastic Rheology and the Occurrence of Aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shcherbakov, R.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

Aftershocks are ubiquitous in nature. They are the manifestation of relaxation phenomena observed in various physical systems. In one prominent example, they typically occur after large earthquakes. The observed aftershock sequences usually obey several well defined non-trivial empirical laws in magnitude, temporal, and spatial domains. In many cases their characteristics follow scale-invariant distributions. The occurrence of aftershocks displays a prominent temporal behavior due to time-dependent mechanisms of stress and/or energy transfer. There are compelling evidences that the lower continental crust and upper mantle are governed by various solid state creep mechanisms. Among those mechanisms a power-law viscous flow was suggested to explain the postseismic surface deformation after large earthquakes. In this work, we consider a slider-block model to mimic the behavior of a seismogenic fault. In the model, we introduce a nonlinear viscoelastic coupling mechanism to capture the essential characteristics of crustal rheology and stress interaction between the blocks and the medium. For this purpose we employ nonlinear Kelvin-Voigt elements consisting of an elastic spring and a dashpot assembled in parallel to introduce viscoelastic coupling between the blocks and the driving plate. By mapping the model into a cellular automaton we derive the functional form of the stress transfer mechanism in the model. We show that the nonlinear viscoelasticity plays a critical role in triggering of aftershocks. It explains the functional form of the Omori-Utsu law and gives physical interpretation of its parameters. The proposed model also suggests that the power-law rheology of the fault gauge and underlying lower crust and upper mantle controls the decay rate of aftershocks. To verify this, we analyze several prominent aftershock sequences to estimate their decay rates and correlate with the rheological properties of the underlying lower crust and mantle, which were estimated from the postseismic surface deformation. Our modelling suggests that the power-law rheology exponent n controls the decay rate of aftershocks and is related to the parameter p of the Omori-Utsu law.

Artificial seismic acceleration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Felzer, Karen R.; Page, Morgan T.; Michael, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

In their 2013 paper, Bouchon, Durand, Marsan, Karabulut, 3 and Schmittbuhl (BDMKS) claim to see significant accelerating seismicity before M 6.5 interplate mainshocks, but not before intraplate mainshocks, reflecting a preparatory process before large events. We concur with the finding of BDMKS that their interplate dataset has significantly more fore- shocks than their intraplate dataset; however, we disagree that the foreshocks are predictive of large events in particular. Acceleration in stacked foreshock sequences has been seen before and has been explained by the cascade model, in which earthquakes occasionally trigger aftershocks larger than themselves4. In this model, the time lags between the smaller mainshocks and larger aftershocks follow the inverse power law common to all aftershock sequences, creating an apparent acceleration when stacked (see Supplementary Information).

Nonlinear Viscoelastic Mechanism for Aftershock Triggering and Decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shcherbakov, R.; Zhang, X.

2016-12-01

Aftershocks are ubiquitous in nature. They are the manifestation of relaxation phenomena observed in various physical systems. In one prominent example, they typically occur after large earthquakes. They also occur in other natural or experimental systems, for example, in solar flares, in fracture experiments on porous materials and acoustic emissions, after stock market crashes, in the volatility of stock prices returns, in internet traffic variability and e-mail spamming, to mention a few. The observed aftershock sequences usually obey several well defined non-trivial empirical laws in magnitude, temporal, and spatial domains. In many cases their characteristics follow scale-invariant distributions. The occurrence of aftershocks displays a prominent temporal behavior due to time-dependent mechanisms of stress and/or energy transfer. In this work, we consider a slider-block model to mimic the behavior of a seismogenic fault. In the model, we introduce a nonlinear viscoelastic coupling mechanism to capture the essential characteristics of crustal rheology and stress interaction between the blocks and the medium. For this purpose we employ nonlinear Kelvin-Voigt elements consisting of an elastic spring and a dashpot assembled in parallel to introduce viscoelastic coupling between the blocks and the driving plate. By mapping the model into a cellular automaton we derive the functional form of the stress transfer mechanism in the model. We show that the nonlinear viscoelasticity plays a critical role in triggering of aftershocks. It explains the functional form of the Omori-Utsu law and gives physical interpretation of its parameters. The proposed model also suggests that the power-law rheology of the fault gauge and underlying lower crust and upper mantle control the decay rate of aftershocks. To verify this, we analyze several prominent aftershock sequences to estimate their decay rates and correlate with the rheological properties of the underlying lower crust and mantle.

Aftershocks of the 2014 South Napa, California, Earthquake: Complex faulting on secondary faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Shelly, David R.

2016-01-01

We investigate the aftershock sequence of the 2014 MW6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake. Low-magnitude aftershocks missing from the network catalog are detected by applying a matched-filter approach to continuous seismic data, with the catalog earthquakes serving as the waveform templates. We measure precise differential arrival times between events, which we use for double-difference event relocation in a 3D seismic velocity model. Most aftershocks are deeper than the mainshock slip, and most occur west of the mapped surface rupture. While the mainshock coseismic and postseismic slip appears to have occurred on the near-vertical, strike-slip West Napa fault, many of the aftershocks occur in a complex zone of secondary faulting. Earthquake locations in the main aftershock zone, near the mainshock hypocenter, delineate multiple dipping secondary faults. Composite focal mechanisms indicate strike-slip and oblique-reverse faulting on the secondary features. The secondary faults were moved towards failure by Coulomb stress changes from the mainshock slip. Clusters of aftershocks north and south of the main aftershock zone exhibit vertical strike-slip faulting more consistent with the West Napa Fault. The northern aftershocks correspond to the area of largest mainshock coseismic slip, while the main aftershock zone is adjacent to the fault area that has primarily slipped postseismically. Unlike most creeping faults, the zone of postseismic slip does not appear to contain embedded stick-slip patches that would have produced on-fault aftershocks. The lack of stick-slip patches along this portion of the fault may contribute to the low productivity of the South Napa aftershock sequence.

Detecting aseismic strain transients from seismicity data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Llenos, A.L.; McGuire, J.J.

2011-01-01

Aseismic deformation transients such as fluid flow, magma migration, and slow slip can trigger changes in seismicity rate. We present a method that can detect these seismicity rate variations and utilize these anomalies to constrain the underlying variations in stressing rate. Because ordinary aftershock sequences often obscure changes in the background seismicity caused by aseismic processes, we combine the stochastic Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model that describes aftershock sequences well and the physically based rate- and state-dependent friction seismicity model into a single seismicity rate model that models both aftershock activity and changes in background seismicity rate. We implement this model into a data assimilation algorithm that inverts seismicity catalogs to estimate space-time variations in stressing rate. We evaluate the method using a synthetic catalog, and then apply it to a catalog of M???1.5 events that occurred in the Salton Trough from 1990 to 2009. We validate our stressing rate estimates by comparing them to estimates from a geodetically derived slip model for a large creep event on the Obsidian Buttes fault. The results demonstrate that our approach can identify large aseismic deformation transients in a multidecade long earthquake catalog and roughly constrain the absolute magnitude of the stressing rate transients. Our method can therefore provide a way to detect aseismic transients in regions where geodetic resolution in space or time is poor. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Temporal variation of aftershocks by means of multifractal characterization of their inter-event time and cluster analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueroa-Soto, A.; Zuñiga, R.; Marquez-Ramirez, V.; Monterrubio-Velasco, M.

2017-12-01

. The inter-event time characteristics of seismic aftershock sequences can provide important information to discern stages in the aftershock generation process. In order to investigate whether separate dynamic stages can be identified, (1) aftershock series after selected earthquake mainshocks, which took place at similar tectonic regimes were analyzed. To this end we selected two well-defined aftershock sequences from New Zealand and one aftershock sequence for Mexico, we (2) analyzed the fractal behavior of the logarithm of inter-event times (also called waiting times) of aftershocks by means of Holdeŕs exponent, and (3) their magnitude and spatial location based on a methodology proposed by Zaliapin and Ben Zion [2011] which accounts for the clustering properties of the sequence. In general, more than two coherent process stages can be identified following the main rupture, evidencing a type of "cascade" process which precludes implying a single generalized power law even though the temporal rate and average fractal character appear to be unique (as in a single Omorís p value). We found that aftershock processes indeed show multi-fractal characteristics, which may be related to different stages in the process of diffusion, as seen in the temporary-spatial distribution of aftershocks. Our method provides a way of defining the onset of the return to seismic background activity and the end of the main aftershock sequence.

Evaluating spatial and temporal relationships between an earthquake cluster near Entiat, central Washington, and the large December 1872 Entiat earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brocher, Thomas M.; Blakely, Richard J.; Sherrod, Brian

2017-01-01

We investigate spatial and temporal relations between an ongoing and prolific seismicity cluster in central Washington, near Entiat, and the 14 December 1872 Entiat earthquake, the largest historic crustal earthquake in Washington. A fault scarp produced by the 1872 earthquake lies within the Entiat cluster; the locations and areas of both the cluster and the estimated 1872 rupture surface are comparable. Seismic intensities and the 1–2 m of coseismic displacement suggest a magnitude range between 6.5 and 7.0 for the 1872 earthquake. Aftershock forecast models for (1) the first several hours following the 1872 earthquake, (2) the largest felt earthquakes from 1900 to 1974, and (3) the seismicity within the Entiat cluster from 1976 through 2016 are also consistent with this magnitude range. Based on this aftershock modeling, most of the current seismicity in the Entiat cluster could represent aftershocks of the 1872 earthquake. Other earthquakes, especially those with long recurrence intervals, have long‐lived aftershock sequences, including the Mw">MwMw 7.5 1891 Nobi earthquake in Japan, with aftershocks continuing 100 yrs after the mainshock. Although we do not rule out ongoing tectonic deformation in this region, a long‐lived aftershock sequence can account for these observations.

A catalog of aftershock sequences in Greece (1971 1997): Their spatial and temporal characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drakatos, George; Latoussakis, John

A complete catalog of aftershock sequences is provided for main earthquakes with ML 5.0, which occurred in the area of Greece and surrounding regions the last twenty-seven years. The Monthly Bulletins of the Institute of Geodynamics (National Observatory of Athens) have been used as data source. In order to get a homogeneous catalog, several selection criteria have been applied and hence a catalog of 44 aftershock sequences is compiled. The relations between the duration of the sequence, the number of aftershocks, the magnitude of the largest aftershock and its delay time from the main shock as well as the subsurface rupture length versus the magnitude of the main shock are calculated. The results show that linearity exists between the subsurface rupture length and the magnitude of the main shock independent of the slip type, as well as between the magnitude of the main shock (M) and its largest aftershock (Ma). The mean difference M-Ma is almost one unit. In the 40% of the analyzed sequences, the largest aftershock occurred within one day after the main shock.The fact that the aftershock sequences show the same behavior for earthquakes that occur in the same region supports the theory that the spatial and temporal characteristics are strongly related to the stress distribution of the fault area.

Extending earthquakes' reach through cascading.

PubMed

Marsan, David; Lengliné, Olivier

2008-02-22

Earthquakes, whatever their size, can trigger other earthquakes. Mainshocks cause aftershocks to occur, which in turn activate their own local aftershock sequences, resulting in a cascade of triggering that extends the reach of the initial mainshock. A long-lasting difficulty is to determine which earthquakes are connected, either directly or indirectly. Here we show that this causal structure can be found probabilistically, with no a priori model nor parameterization. Large regional earthquakes are found to have a short direct influence in comparison to the overall aftershock sequence duration. Relative to these large mainshocks, small earthquakes collectively have a greater effect on triggering. Hence, cascade triggering is a key component in earthquake interactions.

The enigma of the Arthur's Pass, New Zealand, earthquake 1. Reconciling a variety of data for an unusual earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Abercrombie, R.E.; Webb, T.H.; Robinson, R.; McGinty, P.J.; Mori, J.J.; Beavan, R.J.

2000-01-01

The 1994 Arthur's Pass earthquake (Mw6.7) is the largest in a recent sequence of earthquakes in the central South Island, New Zealand. No surface rupture was observed the aftershock distribution was complex, and routine methods of obtaining the faulting orientation of this earthquake proved contradictory. We use a range of data and techniques to obtain our preferred solution, which has a centroid depth of 5 km, Mo=1.3??1019 N m, and a strike, dip, and rake of 221??, 47??, 112??, respectively. Discrepancies between this solution and the Harvard centroid moment tensor, together with the Global Positioning System (GPS) observations and unusual aftershock distribution, suggest that the rupture may not have occurred on a planar fault. A second, strike slip, subevent on a more northerly striking plane is suggested by these data but neither the body wave modeling nor regional broadband recordings show any complexity or late subevents. We relocate the aftershocks using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional velocity inversions. The depth range of the aftershocks (1-10 km) agrees well with the preferred mainshock centroid depth. The aftershocks near the hypocenter suggest a structure dipping toward the NW, which we interpret to be the mainshock fault plane. This structure and the Harper fault, ???15 km to the south appear to have acted as boundaries to the extensive aftershock zone trending NNW-SSE Most of the ML???5 aftershocks, including the two largest (ML6.1 and ML5.7), clustered near the Harper fault and have strike slip mechanisms consistent with motion on this fault and its conjugates. Forward modeling of the GPS data suggests that a reverse slip mainshock, combined with strike slip aftershock faulting in the south, is able to match the observed displacements. The occurrence of this earthquake sequence implies that the level of seismic hazard in the central South Island is greater than previous estimates. Copyright 2000 by the American Geophysical Union.

Cataloging the 1811-1812 New Madrid, central U.S., earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.

2009-01-01

The three principal New Madrid, central U.S., mainshocks of 1811-1812 were followed by extensive aftershock sequences that included numerous felt events. Although no instrumental data are available for the sequence, historical accounts provide information that can be used to estimate magnitudes and locations for the large aftershocks as well as the mainshocks. Several detailed eyewitness accounts of the sequence provide sufficient information to identify times and rough magnitude estimates for a number of aftershocks that have not been analyzed previously. I also use three extended compilations of felt events to explore the overall sequence productivity. Although one generally cannot estimate magnitudes or locations for individual events, the intensity distributions of recent, instrumentally recorded earthquakes in the region provide a basis for estimation of the magnitude distribution of 1811-1812 aftershocks. The distribution is consistent with a b-value distribution. I estimate Mw 6-6.3 for the three largest identifiable aftershocks, apart from the so-called dawn aftershock on 16 December 1811.

A detailed study of the Pernik (Bulgaria) seismic sequence of 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raykova, Plamena; Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stela; Dimitrova, Liliya

2014-05-01

A detailed study of the Pernik (Bulgaria) seismic sequence of 2012 D.Solakov, S.Simeonova ,I. Georgiev, P.Raykova, L.Dimitrova and V.Protopopova National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography-BAS, Sofia, Bulgaria The spatial and temporal clustering of aftershocks is the dominant non-random element of seismicity, so that when aftershocks are removed, the remaining activity can be modelled (as first approximation) as a Poisson process. The properties of aftershock sequences (distinct cluster, for example; even aftershocks can have aftershocks) allow time-dependent prediction of aftershock probabilities. Consideration of recent earthquake sequences suggests that aftershocks to large earthquakes although they are still, by definition, smaller events, can be very damaging and should be addressed in emergence planning scenarios. Because of the factors such as location and radiation pattern and the cumulative nature of building damage, aftershocks can cause more damage than the main shock. An earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 hit Sofia seismic zone, on May 22nd, 2012. The earthquake occurred in the vicinity of Pernik city, at about 25 km south west of the city of Sofia (the capital of Bulgaria). The event was followed by intensive activity. The active area is situated in the central part of western Bulgaria. That is the most populated (more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria. Seismicity in the zone is related to the marginal neotectonic faults of Sofia graben. The boundaries of the graben are represented by SE-NW fault system with expressive neotectonic activity. This zone is characterized by shallow earthquakes. The strongest known event in the region is the 1858 quake with intensity I0=9-10 MSK. The 1858 earthquake caused heavy destruction in the city of Sofia and the appearance of thermal spring. It is worth mentioning that the seismic sequence of May 2912 occurred in an area characterized by a long quiescence (of 95 years) for moderate events. Moreover, a reduced number of small earthquakes has also been registered in the recent past. The manifold purpose of this study is first to study spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks than to analyze wave forms and to determine individual focal mechanisms of the largest shocks. Additionally, a joint hypocenter determination and composite focal mechanism of a large number of small aftershocks were carried out. Finally, the current state of stress in the considered region, obtained on the base of aftershock focal mechanisms, was compared with horizontal crustal movement inferred from GPS measurement.

Simulation of spatial and temporal properties of aftershocks by means of the fiber bundle model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monterrubio-Velasco, Marisol; Zúñiga, F. R.; Márquez-Ramírez, Victor Hugo; Figueroa-Soto, Angel

2017-11-01

The rupture processes of any heterogeneous material constitute a complex physical problem. Earthquake aftershocks show temporal and spatial behaviors which are consequence of the heterogeneous stress distribution and multiple rupturing following the main shock. This process is difficult to model deterministically due to the number of parameters and physical conditions, which are largely unknown. In order to shed light on the minimum requirements for the generation of aftershock clusters, in this study, we perform a simulation of the main features of such a complex process by means of a fiber bundle (FB) type model. The FB model has been widely used to analyze the fracture process in heterogeneous materials. It is a simple but powerful tool that allows modeling the main characteristics of a medium such as the brittle shallow crust of the earth. In this work, we incorporate spatial properties, such as the Coulomb stress change pattern, which help simulate observed characteristics of aftershock sequences. In particular, we introduce a parameter ( P) that controls the probability of spatial distribution of initial loads. Also, we use a "conservation" parameter ( π), which accounts for the load dissipation of the system, and demonstrate its influence on the simulated spatio-temporal patterns. Based on numerical results, we find that P has to be in the range 0.06 < P < 0.30, whilst π needs to be limited by a very narrow range ( 0.60 < π < 0.66) in order to reproduce aftershocks pattern characteristics which resemble those of observed sequences. This means that the system requires a small difference in the spatial distribution of initial stress, and a very particular fraction of load transfer in order to generate realistic aftershocks.

The Aftershock Risk Index - quantification of aftershock impacts during ongoing strong-seismic sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, Andreas; Daniell, James; Khazai, Bijan; Wenzel, Friedemann

2016-04-01

The occurrence and impact of strong earthquakes often triggers the long-lasting impact of a seismic sequence. Strong earthquakes are generally followed by many aftershocks or even strong subsequently triggered ruptures. The Nepal 2015 earthquake sequence is one of the most recent examples where aftershocks significantly contributed to human and economic losses. In addition, rumours about upcoming mega-earthquakes, false predictions and on-going cycles of aftershocks induced a psychological burden on the society, which caused panic, additional casualties and prevented people from returning to normal life. This study shows the current phase of development of an operationalised aftershock intensity index, which will contribute to the mitigation of aftershock hazard. Hereby, various methods of earthquake forecasting and seismic risk assessments are utilised and an integration of the inherent aftershock intensity is performed. A spatio-temporal analysis of past earthquake clustering provides first-hand data about the nature of aftershock occurrence. Epidemic methods can additionally provide time-dependent variation indices of the cascading effects of aftershock generation. The aftershock hazard is often combined with the potential for significant losses through the vulnerability of structural systems and population. A historical database of aftershock socioeconomic effects from CATDAT has been used in order to calibrate the index based on observed impacts of historical events and their aftershocks. In addition, analytical analysis of cyclic behaviour and fragility functions of various building typologies are explored. The integration of many different probabilistic computation methods will provide a combined index parameter which can then be transformed into an easy-to-read spatio-temporal intensity index. The index provides daily updated information about the probability of the inherent seismic risk of aftershocks by providing a scalable scheme fordifferent aftershock intensities. These intensities define spatial locations and the temporal period when aftershocks are either probable or damaging. Instead of providing a highly scientific probability mesh-up, the aftershock intensity index is an easy-to-communicate system of intensity levels for rescue and relief organizations but also governments and the common people. For this study, the metric is tested retrospectively on the earthquake sequences of Nepal 2015 and Darfield-Christchurch of 2010/2011.

Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yicun; Zhuang, Jiancang; Hirata, Naoshi; Zhou, Shiyong

2017-07-01

The epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe and analyze the clustering behavior of seismicity. Instead of regarding large earthquakes as point sources, the finite-source ETAS model treats them as ruptures that extend in space. Each earthquake rupture consists of many patches, and each patch triggers its own aftershocks isotropically. We design an iterative algorithm to invert the unobserved fault geometry based on the stochastic reconstruction method. This model is applied to analyze the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalog during 1964-2014. We take six great earthquakes with magnitudes >7.5 after 1980 as finite sources and reconstruct the aftershock productivity patterns on each rupture surface. Comparing results from the point-source ETAS model, we find the following: (1) the finite-source model improves the data fitting; (2) direct aftershock productivity is heterogeneous on the rupture plane; (3) the triggering abilities of M5.4+ events are enhanced; (4) the background rate is higher in the off-fault region and lower in the on-fault region for the Tohoku earthquake, while high probabilities of direct aftershocks distribute all over the source region in the modified model; (5) the triggering abilities of five main shocks become 2-6 times higher after taking the rupture geometries into consideration; and (6) the trends of the cumulative background rate are similar in both models, indicating the same levels of detection ability for seismicity anomalies. Moreover, correlations between aftershock productivity and slip distributions imply that aftershocks within rupture faults are adjustments to coseismic stress changes due to slip heterogeneity.

DETERMINATION OF ELASTIC WAVE VELOCITY AND RELATIVE HYPOCENTER LOCATIONS USING REFRACTED WAVES. II. APPLICATION TO THE HAICHENG, CHINA, AFTERSHOCK SEQUENCE.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shedlock, Kaye M.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ma, Xiufang

1985-01-01

The authors located the aftershocks of the February 4, 1975 Haicheng, China, aftershock sequence using an arrival time difference (ATD) simultaneous inversion method for determining the near-source (in situ) velocity and the location of the aftershocks with respect to a master event. The aftershocks define a diffuse zone, 70 km multiplied by 25 km, trending west-northwest, perpendicular to the major structural trend of the region. The main shock and most of the large aftershocks have strike-slip fault plane solutions. The preferred fault plane strikes west-northwest, and the inferred sense of motion is left-lateral. The entire Haicheng earthauake sequence appears to have been the response of an intensely faulted range boundary to a primarily east-west crustal compression and/or north-south extension.

Are Earthquakes Predictable? A Study on Magnitude Correlations in Earthquake Catalog and Experimental Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavrianaki, K.; Ross, G.; Sammonds, P. R.

2015-12-01

The clustering of earthquakes in time and space is widely accepted, however the existence of correlations in earthquake magnitudes is more questionable. In standard models of seismic activity, it is usually assumed that magnitudes are independent and therefore in principle unpredictable. Our work seeks to test this assumption by analysing magnitude correlation between earthquakes and their aftershocks. To separate mainshocks from aftershocks, we perform stochastic declustering based on the widely used Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which allows us to then compare the average magnitudes of aftershock sequences to that of their mainshock. The results of earthquake magnitude correlations were compared with acoustic emissions (AE) from laboratory analog experiments, as fracturing generates both AE at the laboratory scale and earthquakes on a crustal scale. Constant stress and constant strain rate experiments were done on Darley Dale sandstone under confining pressure to simulate depth of burial. Microcracking activity inside the rock volume was analyzed by the AE technique as a proxy for earthquakes. Applying the ETAS model to experimental data allowed us to validate our results and provide for the first time a holistic view on the correlation of earthquake magnitudes. Additionally we search the relationship between the conditional intensity estimates of the ETAS model and the earthquake magnitudes. A positive relation would suggest the existence of magnitude correlations. The aim of this study is to observe any trends of dependency between the magnitudes of aftershock earthquakes and the earthquakes that trigger them.

Repeating aftershocks of the great 2004 Sumatra and 2005 Nias earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Wen-che; Song, Teh-Ru Alex; Silver, Paul G.

2013-05-01

We investigate repeating aftershocks associated with the great 2004 Sumatra-Andaman (Mw 9.2) and 2005 Nias-Simeulue (Mw 8.6) earthquakes by cross-correlating waveforms recorded by the regional seismographic station PSI and teleseismic stations. We identify 10 and 18 correlated aftershock sequences associated with the great 2004 Sumatra and 2005 Nias earthquakes, respectively. The majority of the correlated aftershock sequences are located near the down-dip end of a large afterslip patch. We determine the precise relative locations of event pairs among these sequences and estimate the source rupture areas. The correlated event pairs identified are appropriately referred to as repeating aftershocks, in that the source rupture areas are comparable and significantly overlap within a sequence. We use the repeating aftershocks to estimate afterslip based on the slip-seismic moment scaling relationship and to infer the temporal decay rate of the recurrence interval. The estimated afterslip resembles that measured from the near-field geodetic data to the first order. The decay rate of repeating aftershocks as a function of lapse time t follows a power-law decay 1/tp with the exponent p in the range 0.8-1.1. Both types of observations indicate that repeating aftershocks are governed by post-seismic afterslip.

Aftershocks and triggered events of the Great 1906 California earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

2003-01-01

The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults in the world, yet little is known about the aftershocks following the most recent great event on the San Andreas, the Mw 7.8 San Francisco earthquake on 18 April 1906. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest aftershocks and triggered events of this earthquake. We examined existing catalogs and historical documents for the period April 1906 to December 1907, compiling data on the first 20 months of the aftershock sequence. We grouped felt reports temporally and assigned modified Mercalli intensities for the larger events based on the descriptions judged to be the most reliable. For onshore and near-shore events, a grid-search algorithm (derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes) was used to find the epicentral location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities. For one event identified as far offshore, the event's intensity distribution was compared with those of modern events, in order to contrain the event's location and magnitude. The largest aftershock within the study period, an M ???6.7 event, occurred ???100 km west of Eureka on 23 April 1906. Although not within our study period, another M ???6.7 aftershock occurred near Cape Mendocino on 28 October 1909. Other significant aftershocks included an M ???5.6 event near San Juan Bautista on 17 May 1906 and an M ???6.3 event near Shelter Cove on 11 August 1907. An M ???4.9 aftershock occurred on the creeping segment of the San Andreas fault (southeast of the mainshock rupture) on 6 July 1906. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake also triggered events in southern California (including separate events in or near the Imperial Valley, the Pomona Valley, and Santa Monica Bay), in western Nevada, in southern central Oregon, and in western Arizona, all within 2 days of the mainshock. Of these trigerred events, the largest were an M ???6.1 earthquake near Brawley and an M ???5.0 event under or near Santa Monica Bay, 11.3 and 31.3 hr after the San Francisco mainshock, respectively. The western Arizona event is inferred to have been triggered dynamically. In general, the largest aftershocks occurred at the ends of the 1906 rupture or away from the rupture entirely; very few significant aftershocks occurred along the mainshock rupture itself. The total number of large aftershocks was less than predicted by a generic model based on typical California mainshock-aftershock statistics, and the 1906 sequence appears to have decayed more slowly than average California sequences. Similarities can be drawn between the 1906 aftershock sequence and that of the 1857 (Mw 7.9) San Andreas fault earthquake.

Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D. E.; Yeck, W. L.; Barnhart, W. D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, A.; Hough, S. E.; Benz, H. M.; Earle, P. S.

2017-09-01

The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard. Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10-15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNamara, Daniel E.; Yeck, William; Barnhart, William D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, Amod; Hough, S.E.; Benz, Harley M.; Earle, Paul

2017-01-01

The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard.Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a ~ 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10–15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

Aftershocks driven by afterslip and fluid pressure sweeping through a fault-fracture mesh

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Zachary E.; Rollins, Christopher; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Hauksson, Egill; Avouac, Jean-Philippe; Ben-Zion, Yehuda

2017-01-01

A variety of physical mechanisms are thought to be responsible for the triggering and spatiotemporal evolution of aftershocks. Here we analyze a vigorous aftershock sequence and postseismic geodetic strain that occurred in the Yuha Desert following the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. About 155,000 detected aftershocks occurred in a network of orthogonal faults and exhibit features of two distinct mechanisms for aftershock triggering. The earliest aftershocks were likely driven by afterslip that spread away from the main shock with the logarithm of time. A later pulse of aftershocks swept again across the Yuha Desert with square root time dependence and swarm-like behavior; together with local geological evidence for hydrothermalism, these features suggest that the events were driven by fluid diffusion. The observations illustrate how multiple driving mechanisms and the underlying fault structure jointly control the evolution of an aftershock sequence.

Three ingredients for Improved global aftershock forecasts: Tectonic region, time-dependent catalog incompleteness, and inter-sequence variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Page, Morgan T.; Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen; Michael, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

Following a large earthquake, seismic hazard can be orders of magnitude higher than the long‐term average as a result of aftershock triggering. Because of this heightened hazard, emergency managers and the public demand rapid, authoritative, and reliable aftershock forecasts. In the past, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aftershock forecasts following large global earthquakes have been released on an ad hoc basis with inconsistent methods, and in some cases aftershock parameters adapted from California. To remedy this, the USGS is currently developing an automated aftershock product based on the Reasenberg and Jones (1989) method that will generate more accurate forecasts. To better capture spatial variations in aftershock productivity and decay, we estimate regional aftershock parameters for sequences within the García et al. (2012) tectonic regions. We find that regional variations for mean aftershock productivity reach almost a factor of 10. We also develop a method to account for the time‐dependent magnitude of completeness following large events in the catalog. In addition to estimating average sequence parameters within regions, we develop an inverse method to estimate the intersequence parameter variability. This allows for a more complete quantification of the forecast uncertainties and Bayesian updating of the forecast as sequence‐specific information becomes available.

Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment.

PubMed

Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian

2009-11-05

One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform. As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations. So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere.

Rupture Speed and Dynamic Frictional Processes for the 1995 ML4.1 Shacheng, Hebei, China, Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, B.; Shi, B.

2010-12-01

An earthquake with ML4.1 occurred at Shacheng, Hebei, China, on July 20, 1995, followed by 28 aftershocks with 0.9≤ML≤4.0 (Chen et al, 2005). According to ZÚÑIGA (1993), for the 1995 ML4.1 Shacheng earthquake sequence, the main shock is corresponding to undershoot, while aftershocks should match overshoot. With the suggestion that the dynamic rupture processes of the overshoot aftershocks could be related to the crack (sub-fault) extension inside the main fault. After main shock, the local stresses concentration inside the fault may play a dominant role in sustain the crack extending. Therefore, the main energy dissipation mechanism should be the aftershocks fracturing process associated with the crack extending. We derived minimum radiation energy criterion (MREC) following variational principle (Kanamori and Rivera, 2004)(ES/M0')min≧[3M0/(ɛπμR3)](v/β)3, where ES and M0' are radiated energy and seismic moment gained from observation, μ is the modulus of fault rigidity, ɛ is the parameter of ɛ=M0'/M0,M0 is seismic moment and R is rupture size on the fault, v and β are rupture speed and S-wave speed. From II and III crack extending model, we attempt to reconcile a uniform expression for calculate seismic radiation efficiency ηG, which can be used to restrict the upper limit efficiency and avoid the non-physics phenomenon that radiation efficiency is larger than 1. In ML 4.1 Shacheng earthquake sequence, the rupture speed of the main shock was about 0.86 of S-wave speed β according to MREC, closing to the Rayleigh wave speed, while the rupture speeds of the remained 28 aftershocks ranged from 0.05β to 0.55β. The rupture speed was 0.9β, and most of the aftershocks are no more than 0.35β using II and III crack extending model. In addition, the seismic radiation efficiencies for this earthquake sequence were: for the most aftershocks, the radiation efficiencies were less than 10%, inferring a low seismic efficiency, whereas the radiation efficiency was 78% for the main shock. The essential difference in the earthquake energy partition for the aftershock source dynamics indicated that the fracture energy dissipation could not be ignored in the source parameter estimation for the earthquake faulting, especially for small earthquakes. Otherwise, the radiated seismic energy could be overestimated or underestimated.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ford, S R; Walter, W R

The behavior of aftershock sequences around the Nevada Test Site in the southern Great Basin is characterized as a potential discriminant between explosions and earthquakes. The aftershock model designed by Reasenberg and Jones (1989, 1994) allows for a probabilistic statement of earthquake-like aftershock behavior at any time after the mainshock. We use this model to define two types of aftershock discriminants. The first defines M{sub X}, or the minimum magnitude of an aftershock expected within a given duration after the mainshock with probability X. Of the 67 earthquakes with M > 4 in the study region, 63 of them producemore » an aftershock greater than M{sub 99} within the first seven days after a mainshock. This is contrasted with only six of 93 explosions with M > 4 that produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 99} for the same period. If the aftershock magnitude threshold is lowered and the M{sub 90} criteria is used, then no explosions produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 90} for durations that end more than 17 days after the mainshock. The other discriminant defines N{sub X}, or the minimum cumulative number of aftershocks expected for given time after the mainshock with probability X. Similar to the aftershock magnitude discriminant, five earthquakes do not produce more aftershocks than N{sub 99} within 7 days after the mainshock. However, within the same period all but one explosion produce less aftershocks then N{sub 99}. One explosion is added if the duration is shortened to two days after than mainshock. The cumulative number aftershock discriminant is more reliable, especially at short durations, but requires a low magnitude of completeness for the given earthquake catalog. These results at NTS are quite promising and should be evaluated at other nuclear test sites to understand the effects of differences in the geologic setting and nuclear testing practices on its performance.« less

Integrated geophysical characteristics of the 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herman, Matthew W.; Nealy, Jennifer; Yeck, William; Barnhart, William; Hayes, Gavin; Furlong, Kevin P.; Benz, Harley M.

2017-01-01

On 16 September 2015, a Mw 8.3 earthquake ruptured the subduction zone offshore of Illapel, Chile, generating an aftershock sequence with 14 Mw 6.0–7.0 events. A double source W phase moment tensor inversion consists of a Mw 7.2 subevent and the main Mw 8.2 phase. We determine two slip models for the mainshock, one using teleseismic broadband waveforms and the other using static GPS and InSAR surface displacements, which indicate high slip north of the epicenter and west-northwest of the epicenter near the oceanic trench. These models and slip distributions published in other studies suggest spatial slip uncertainties of ~25 km and have peak slip values that vary by a factor of 2. We relocate aftershock hypocenters using a Bayesian multiple-event relocation algorithm, revealing a cluster of aftershocks under the Chilean coast associated with deep (20–45 km depth) mainshock slip. Less vigorous aftershock activity also occurred near the trench and along strike of the main aftershock region. Most aftershocks are thrust-faulting events, except for normal-faulting events near the trench. Coulomb failure stress change amplitudes and signs are uncertain for aftershocks collocated with deeper mainshock slip; other aftershocks are more clearly associated with loading from the mainshock. These observations reveal a frictionally heterogeneous interface that ruptured in patches at seismogenic depths (associated with many aftershocks) and with homogeneous slip (and few aftershocks) up to the trench. This event likely triggered seismicity separate from the main slip region, including along-strike events on the megathrust and intraplate extensional events.

Spatio-temporal evolution of the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma aftershock sequence revealed using subspace detection and relocation

USGS Publications Warehouse

McMahon, Nicole D; Aster, Richard C.; Yeck, William; McNamara, Daniel E.; Benz, Harley M.

2017-01-01

The 6 November 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake near Prague, Oklahoma is the second largest earthquake ever recorded in the state. A Mw 4.8 foreshock and the Mw 5.7 mainshock triggered a prolific aftershock sequence. Utilizing a subspace detection method, we increase by fivefold the number of precisely located events between 4 November and 5 December 2011. We find that while most aftershock energy is released in the crystalline basement, a significant number of the events occur in the overlying Arbuckle Group, indicating that active Meeker-Prague faulting extends into the sedimentary zone of wastewater disposal. Although the number of aftershocks in the Arbuckle Group is large, comprising ~40% of the aftershock catalog, the moment contribution of Arbuckle Group earthquakes is much less than 1% of the total aftershock moment budget. Aftershock locations are sparse in patches that experienced large slip during the mainshock.

The Constantine (Algeria) seismic sequence of 27 October 1985: a new rupture model from aftershock relocation, focal mechanisms, and stress tensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ousadou, F.; Dorbath, L.; Dorbath, C.; Bounif, M. A.; Benhallou, H.

2013-04-01

The October 27, 1985 Constantine earthquake of magnitude MS 5.9 (NEIC) although moderate is the strongest earthquake recorded in the eastern Tellian Atlas (northeast Algeria) since the beginning of instrumental seismology. The main shock locations given by different institutions are scattered and up to 10 km away northwest from the NE-SW 30 km long elongated aftershocks cloud localized by a dedicated temporary portable network. The focal mechanism indicates left-lateral strike-slip on an almost vertical fault with a small reverse component on the northwest dipping plane. This paper presents relocations of the main shock and aftershocks using TomoDD. One hundred thirty-eight individual focal mechanisms have been built allowing the determination of the stress tensor at different scales. A rupture model has been suggested, which explains the different observations of aftershock distribution and stress tensor rotation.

The 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake Sequence, Baja California, Mexico and Southernmost California, USA: Active Seismotectonics along the Mexican Pacific Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauksson, Egill; Stock, Joann; Hutton, Kate; Yang, Wenzheng; Vidal-Villegas, J. Antonio; Kanamori, Hiroo

2011-08-01

The El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake sequence started with a few foreshocks in March 2010, and a second sequence of 15 foreshocks of M > 2 (up to M4.4) that occurred during the 24 h preceding the mainshock. The foreshocks occurred along a north-south trend near the mainshock epicenter. The M w 7.2 mainshock on April 4 exhibited complex faulting, possibly starting with a ~M6 normal faulting event, followed ~15 s later by the main event, which included simultaneous normal and right-lateral strike-slip faulting. The aftershock zone extends for 120 km from the south end of the Elsinore fault zone north of the US-Mexico border almost to the northern tip of the Gulf of California. The waveform-relocated aftershocks form two abutting clusters, each about 50 km long, as well as a 10 km north-south aftershock zone just north of the epicenter of the mainshock. Even though the Baja California data are included, the magnitude of completeness and the hypocentral errors increase gradually with distance south of the international border. The spatial distribution of large aftershocks is asymmetric with five M5+ aftershocks located to the south of the mainshock, and only one M5.7 aftershock, but numerous smaller aftershocks to the north. Further, the northwest aftershock cluster exhibits complex faulting on both northwest and northeast planes. Thus, the aftershocks also express a complex pattern of stress release along strike. The overall rate of decay of the aftershocks is similar to the rate of decay of a generic California aftershock sequence. In addition, some triggered seismicity was recorded along the Elsinore and San Jacinto faults to the north, but significant northward migration of aftershocks has not occurred. The synthesis of the El Mayor-Cucapah sequence reveals transtensional regional tectonics, including the westward growth of the Mexicali Valley and the transfer of Pacific-North America plate motion from the Gulf of California in the south into the southernmost San Andreas fault system to the north. We propose that the location of the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah, as well as the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes, may have been controlled by the bends in the plate boundary.

Systematic deficiency of aftershocks in areas of high coseismic slip for large subduction zone earthquakes

PubMed Central

Wetzler, Nadav; Lay, Thorne; Brodsky, Emily E.; Kanamori, Hiroo

2018-01-01

Fault slip during plate boundary earthquakes releases a portion of the shear stress accumulated due to frictional resistance to relative plate motions. Investigation of 101 large [moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 7] subduction zone plate boundary mainshocks with consistently determined coseismic slip distributions establishes that 15 to 55% of all master event–relocated aftershocks with Mw ≥ 5.2 are located within the slip regions of the mainshock ruptures and few are located in peak slip regions, allowing for uncertainty in the slip models. For the preferred models, cumulative deficiency of aftershocks within the central three-quarters of the scaled slip regions ranges from 15 to 45%, increasing with the total number of observed aftershocks. The spatial gradients of the mainshock coseismic slip concentrate residual shear stress near the slip zone margins and increase stress outside the slip zone, driving both interplate and intraplate aftershock occurrence near the periphery of the mainshock slip. The shear stress reduction in large-slip regions during the mainshock is generally sufficient to preclude further significant rupture during the aftershock sequence, consistent with large-slip areas relocking and not rupturing again for a substantial time. PMID:29487902

The 1992 Landers earthquake sequence; seismological observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Egill Hauksson,; Jones, Lucile M.; Hutton, Kate; Eberhart-Phillips, Donna

1993-01-01

The (MW6.1, 7.3, 6.2) 1992 Landers earthquakes began on April 23 with the MW6.1 1992 Joshua Tree preshock and form the most substantial earthquake sequence to occur in California in the last 40 years. This sequence ruptured almost 100 km of both surficial and concealed faults and caused aftershocks over an area 100 km wide by 180 km long. The faulting was predominantly strike slip and three main events in the sequence had unilateral rupture to the north away from the San Andreas fault. The MW6.1 Joshua Tree preshock at 33°N58′ and 116°W19′ on 0451 UT April 23 was preceded by a tightly clustered foreshock sequence (M≤4.6) beginning 2 hours before the mainshock and followed by a large aftershock sequence with more than 6000 aftershocks. The aftershocks extended along a northerly trend from about 10 km north of the San Andreas fault, northwest of Indio, to the east-striking Pinto Mountain fault. The Mw7.3 Landers mainshock occurred at 34°N13′ and 116°W26′ at 1158 UT, June 28, 1992, and was preceded for 12 hours by 25 small M≤3 earthquakes at the mainshock epicenter. The distribution of more than 20,000 aftershocks, analyzed in this study, and short-period focal mechanisms illuminate a complex sequence of faulting. The aftershocks extend 60 km to the north of the mainshock epicenter along a system of at least five different surficial faults, and 40 km to the south, crossing the Pinto Mountain fault through the Joshua Tree aftershock zone towards the San Andreas fault near Indio. The rupture initiated in the depth range of 3–6 km, similar to previous M∼5 earthquakes in the region, although the maximum depth of aftershocks is about 15 km. The mainshock focal mechanism showed right-lateral strike-slip faulting with a strike of N10°W on an almost vertical fault. The rupture formed an arclike zone well defined by both surficial faulting and aftershocks, with more westerly faulting to the north. This change in strike is accomplished by jumping across dilational jogs connecting surficial faults with strikes rotated progressively to the west. A 20-km-long linear cluster of aftershocks occurred 10–20 km north of Barstow, or 30–40 km north of the end of the mainshock rupture. The most prominent off-fault aftershock cluster occurred 30 km to the west of the Landers mainshock. The largest aftershock was within this cluster, the Mw6.2 Big Bear aftershock occurring at 34°N10′ and 116°W49′ at 1505 UT June 28. It exhibited left-lateral strike-slip faulting on a northeast striking and steeply dipping plane. The Big Bear aftershocks form a linear trend extending 20 km to the northeast with a scattered distribution to the north. The Landers mainshock occurred near the southernmost extent of the Eastern California Shear Zone, an 80-km-wide, more than 400-km-long zone of deformation. This zone extends into the Death Valley region and accommodates about 10 to 20% of the plate motion between the Pacific and North American plates. The Joshua Tree preshock, its aftershocks, and Landers aftershocks form a previously missing link that connects the Eastern California Shear Zone to the southern San Andreas fault.

Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults.

PubMed

McGuire, Jeffrey J; Boettcher, Margaret S; Jordan, Thomas H

2005-03-24

East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.

A model of return intervals between earthquake events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yu; Chechkin, Aleksei; Sokolov, Igor M.; Kantz, Holger

2016-06-01

Application of the diffusion entropy analysis and the standard deviation analysis to the time sequence of the southern California earthquake events from 1976 to 2002 uncovered scaling behavior typical for anomalous diffusion. However, the origin of such behavior is still under debate. Some studies attribute the scaling behavior to the correlations in the return intervals, or waiting times, between aftershocks or mainshocks. To elucidate a nature of the scaling, we applied specific reshulffling techniques to eliminate correlations between different types of events and then examined how it affects the scaling behavior. We demonstrate that the origin of the scaling behavior observed is the interplay between mainshock waiting time distribution and the structure of clusters of aftershocks, but not correlations in waiting times between the mainshocks and aftershocks themselves. Our findings are corroborated by numerical simulations of a simple model showing a very similar behavior. The mainshocks are modeled by a renewal process with a power-law waiting time distribution between events, and aftershocks follow a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with the rate governed by Omori's law.

Aftershock seismicity of the 2010 Maule Mw=8.8 Chile, earthquake: Correlation between co-seismic slip models and aftershock distribution?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rietbrock, A.; Ryder, I.; Hayes, G.; Haberland, C.; Comte, D.; Roecker, S.

2012-01-01

The 27 February 2010 Maule, Chile (Mw=8.8) earthquake is one of the best instrumentally observed subduction zone megathrust events. Here we present locations, magnitudes and cumulative equivalent moment of the first -2 months of aftershocks, recorded on a temporary network deployed within 2 weeks of the occurrence of the mainshock. Using automatically-determined onset times and a back projection approach for event association, we are able to detect over 30,000 events in the time period analyzed. To further increase the location accuracy, we systematically searched for potential S-wave arrivals and events were located in a regional 2D velocity model. Additionally, we calculated regional moment tensors to gain insight into the deformation history of the aftershock sequence. We find that the aftershock seismicity is concentrated between 40 and 140 km distance from the trench over a depth range of 10 to 35 km. Focal mechanisms indicate a predominance of thrust faulting, with occasional normal faulting events. Increased activity is seen in the outer-rise region of the Nazca plate, predominantly in the northern part of the rupture area. Further down-dip, a second band of clustered seismicity, showing mainly thrust motion, is located at depths of 40–45 km. By comparing recent published mainshock source inversions with our aftershock distribution, we discriminate slip models based on the assumption that aftershocks occur in areas of rapid transition between high and low slip, surrounding high-slip regions of the mainshock.

Are triggering rates of labquakes universal? Inferring triggering rates from incomplete information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baró, Jordi; Davidsen, Jörn

2017-12-01

The acoustic emission activity associated with recent rock fracture experiments under different conditions has indicated that some features of event-event triggering are independent of the details of the experiment and the materials used and are often even indistinguishable from tectonic earthquakes. While the event-event triggering rates or aftershock rates behave pretty much identical for all rock fracture experiments at short times, this is not the case for later times. Here, we discuss how these differences can be a consequence of the aftershock identification method used and show that the true aftershock rates might have two distinct regimes. Specifically, tests on a modified Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model show that the model rates cannot be correctly inferred at late times based on temporal information only if the activity rates or the branching ratio are high. We also discuss both the effect of the two distinct regimes in the aftershock rates and the effect of the background rate on the inter-event time distribution. Our findings should be applicable for inferring event-event triggering rates for many other types of triggering and branching processes as well.

Aftershocks of the 13 May 1993 Shumagin Alaska earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Zhong; Wyss, Max; Tytgat, Guy; McNutt, Steve; Stihler, Scott

1994-01-01

The 13 May 1993 Ms 6.9 Shumagin earthquake had an aftershock sequence of 247 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than or equal to 1.5 by 1 June 1993. Of these aftershocks, 79 were located by using S-P travel times at the only two stations within 570 km of the mainshock epicenter. The rupture area inferred from the aftershocks is about 600 km2 and we estimate for the mainshock a mean fault displacement of 1.0 m and a 28 bar stress drop. The magnitude-frequency plots give a b-value for the aftershock sequence of about 0.4, which is low compared to the background value of approximately 0.8. The decay of the aftershock sequence followed the modified Omori law with a p-value of 0.79, which is also lower than the typical values of about 1.1 observed in Alaska. Both of these facts can be interpreted as indicating relatively high ambient stress in the Shumagin seismic gap and the possibility that the 13 May earthquake was a foreshock to a larger gap-filling event to occur within the next few years.

Comparison of aftershock sequences between 1975 Haicheng earthquake and 1976 Tangshan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, B.

2017-12-01

The 1975 ML 7.3 Haicheng earthquake and the 1976 ML 7.8 Tangshan earthquake occurred in the same tectonic unit. There are significant differences in spatial-temporal distribution, number of aftershocks and time duration for the aftershock sequence followed by these two main shocks. As we all know, aftershocks could be triggered by the regional seismicity change derived from the main shock, which was caused by the Coulomb stress perturbation. Based on the rate- and state- dependent friction law, we quantitative estimated the possible aftershock time duration with a combination of seismicity data, and compared the results from different approaches. The results indicate that, aftershock time durations from the Tangshan main shock is several times of that form the Haicheng main shock. This can be explained by the significant relationship between aftershock time duration and earthquake nucleation history, normal stressand shear stress loading rateon the fault. In fact the obvious difference of earthquake nucleation history from these two main shocks is the foreshocks. 1975 Haicheng earthquake has clear and long foreshocks, while 1976 Tangshan earthquake did not have clear foreshocks. In that case, abundant foreshocks may mean a long and active nucleation process that may have changed (weakened) the rocks in the source regions, so they should have a shorter aftershock sequences for the reason that stress in weak rocks decay faster.

Abundant aftershock sequence of the 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush intermediate-depth earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chenyu; Peng, Zhigang; Yao, Dongdong; Guo, Hao; Zhan, Zhongwen; Zhang, Haijiang

2018-05-01

The 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush earthquake occurred at a depth of 213 km beneath the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan. While many early aftershocks were missing from the global earthquake catalogues, this sequence was recorded continuously by eight broad-band stations within 500 km. Here we use a waveform matching technique to systematically detect earthquakes around the main shock. More than 3000 events are detected within 35 d after the main shock, as compared with 42 listed in the Advanced National Seismic System catalogue (or 196 in the International Seismological Centre catalogue). The aftershock sequence generally follows the Omori's law with a decay constant p = 0.92. We also apply the recently developed double-pair double-difference technique to relocate all detected aftershocks. Most of them are located to the west of the hypocentre of the main shock, consistent with the westward propagation of the main-shock rupture. The aftershocks outline a nearly vertical southward dipping plane, which matches well with one of the nodal planes of the main shock. We conclude that the aftershock sequence of this intermediate-depth earthquake shares many similarities with those for shallow earthquakes and infer that there are some common mechanisms responsible for shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes.

Mainshock-Aftershocks Clustering Detection in Volcanic Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garza Giron, R.; Brodsky, E. E.; Prejean, S. G.

2017-12-01

Crustal earthquakes tend to break their general Poissonean process behavior by gathering into two main kinds of seismic bursts: swarms and mainshock-aftershocks sequences. The former is commonly related to volcanic or geothermal processes whereas the latter is a characteristic feature of tectonically driven seismicity. We explore the mainshock-aftershock clustering behavior of different active volcanic regions in Japan and its comparison to non-volcanic regions. We find that aftershock production in volcanoes shows mainshock-aftershocks clustering similar to what is observed in non-volcanic areas. The ratio of volanic areas that cluster in mainshock-aftershocks sequences vs the areas that do not is comparable to the ratio of non-volcanic regions that show clustering vs the ones that do not. Furthermore, the level of production of aftershocks for most volcanic areas where clustering is present seems to be of the same order of magnitude, or slightly higher, as the median of the non-volcanic regions. An interesting example of highly aftershock-productive volcanoes emerges from the 2000 Miyakejima dike intrusion. A big seismic cluster started to build up rapidly in the south-west flank of Miyakejima to later propagate to the north-west towards the Kozushima and Niijima volcanoes. In Miyakejima the seismicity showed a swarm-like signature with a constant earthquake rate, whereas Kozushima and Niijima both had expressions of highly productive mainshock-aftershocks sequences. These findings are surprising given the alternative mechanisms available in volcanic systems for releasing deviatoric strain. We speculate that aftershock behavior might hold a relationship with the rheological properties of the rocks of each system and with the capacity of a system to accumulate or release the internal pressures caused by magmatic or hydrothermal systems.

Why aftershock duration matters for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shinji Toda,; Stein, Ross S.

2018-01-01

Most hazard assessments assume that high background seismicity rates indicate a higher probability of large shocks and, therefore, of strong shaking. However, in slowly deforming regions, such as eastern North America, Australia, and inner Honshu, this assumption breaks down if the seismicity clusters are instead aftershocks of historic and prehistoric mainshocks. Here, therefore we probe the circumstances under which aftershocks can last for 100–1000 years. Basham and Adams (1983) and Ebel et al. (2000) proposed that intraplate seismicity in eastern North America could be aftershocks of mainshocks that struck hundreds of years beforehand, a view consonant with rate–state friction (Dieterich, 1994), in which aftershock duration varies inversely with fault‐stressing rate. To test these hypotheses, we estimate aftershock durations of the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku‐Oki rupture at 12 sites up to 250 km from the source, as well as for the near‐fault aftershocks of eight large Japanese mainshocks, sampling faults slipping 0.01 to 80  mm/yr . Whereas aftershock productivity increases with mainshock magnitude, we find that aftershock duration, the time until the aftershock rate decays to the premainshock rate, does not. Instead, aftershock sequences lasted a month on the fastest‐slipping faults and are projected to persist for more than 2000 years on the slowest. Thus, long aftershock sequences can misguide and inflate hazard assessments in intraplate regions if misinterpreted as background seismicity, whereas areas between seismicity clusters may instead harbor a higher chance of large mainshocks, the opposite of what is being assumed today.

Variation of b and p values from aftershocks sequences along the Mexican subduction zone and their relation to plate characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ávila-Barrientos, L.; Zúñiga, F. R.; Rodríguez-Pérez, Q.; Guzmán-Speziale, M.

2015-11-01

Aftershock sequences along the Mexican subduction margin (between coordinates 110ºW and 91ºW) were analyzed by means of the p value from the Omori-Utsu relation and the b value from the Gutenberg-Richter relation. We focused on recent medium to large (Mw > 5.6) events considered susceptible of generating aftershock sequences suitable for analysis. The main goal was to try to find a possible correlation between aftershock parameters and plate characteristics, such as displacement rate, age and segmentation. The subduction regime of Mexico is one of the most active regions of the world with a high frequency of occurrence of medium to large events and plate characteristics change along the subduction margin. Previous studies have observed differences in seismic source characteristics at the subduction regime, which may indicate a difference in rheology and possible segmentation. The results of the analysis of the aftershock sequences indicate a slight tendency for p values to decrease from west to east with increasing of plate age although a statistical significance is undermined by the small number of aftershocks in the sequences, a particular feature distinctive of the region as compared to other world subduction regimes. The b values show an opposite, increasing trend towards the east even though the statistical significance is not enough to warrant the validation of such a trend. A linear regression between both parameters provides additional support for the inverse relation. Moreover, we calculated the seismic coupling coefficient, showing a direct relation with the p and b values. While we cannot undoubtedly confirm the hypothesis that aftershock generation depends on certain tectonic characteristics (age, thickness, temperature), our results do not reject it thus encouraging further study into this question.

Foreshocks and delayed triggering of the 2016 MW7.1 Te Araroa earthquake and dynamic reinvigoration of its aftershock sequence by the MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren-Smith, Emily; Fry, Bill; Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Chamberlain, Calum J.

2018-01-01

We analyze the preparatory period of the September 2016 MW7.1 Te Araroa foreshock-mainshock sequence in the Northern Hikurangi margin, New Zealand, and subsequent reinvigoration of Te Araroa aftershocks driven by a large distant earthquake (the November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake). By adopting a matched-filter detection workflow using 582 well-defined template events, we generate an improved foreshock and aftershock catalog for the Te Araroa sequence (>8,000 earthquakes over 66 d). Templates characteristic of the MW7.1 sequence (including the mainshock template) detect several highly correlating events (ML2.5-3.5) starting 12 min after a MW5.7 foreshock. These pre-cursory events occurred within ∼1 km of the mainshock and migrate bilaterally, suggesting precursory slip was triggered by the foreshock on the MW7.1 fault patch prior to mainshock failure. We extend our matched-filter routine to examine the interactions between high dynamic stresses resulting from passing surface waves of the November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, and the evolution of the Te Araroa aftershock sequence. We observe a sudden spike in moment release of the aftershock sequence immediately following peak dynamic Coulomb stresses of 50-150 kPa on the MW7.1 fault plane. The triggered increase in moment release culminated in a MW5.1 event, immediately followed by a ∼3 h temporal stress shadow. Our observations document the preparatory period of a major subduction margin earthquake following a significant foreshock, and quantify dynamic reinvigoration of a distant on-going major aftershock sequence amid a period of temporal clustering of seismic activity in New Zealand.

The Ms4.4 2016 Yuncheng, Shanxi, China, Seismic Sequence: Source Characterizations and Tectonic Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Z.; Riaz, M. S.; Zheng, Y.; Xiong, X.

2017-12-01

On 12 March 2016 at 11:14 (Beijing time) , a moderate earthquake with magnitude Ms4.4 struck Yuncheng County, Shanxi Province, Central China. Seismic activity continued with numerous aftershocks, and another event with little smaller magnitude of Ms4.0 occurred on 27 March 2016 at 3:58 as well as a lot of aftershocks followed. Seismic waves from the earthquakes were recorded by a dense local broadband seismic network in Shanxi and its surrounding provinces, enabling detailed the source characterizations of this earthquake sequence. The hypocenters of the Yuncheng earthquake sequence determined by the TomoDD method displayed that the events occurred in the middle of Yuncheng Basin which locates between Weihe Basin and Fenhe Basin, one of renowned active seismic belts in mainland China. The relocation of the aftershocks presented a NNW-SSE orientated distribution, and the earlier aftershocks tended to fault at shallow depths, concentrating at 5 km. After the Ms4.0 event, the aftershocks extended to the SSE direction with deeper focal depths. The focal mechanisms of the mainshock and the biggest aftershock obtained by the CAP (Cut And Paste) method indicated consistent right-lateral strike-slip faults. Since the magnitude was relatively small, no surface rupture associated with this shock sequence had been observed, and no known faults exited around the epicenter, indicating that the causative fault was ambiguous just based on the focal mechanism. According to the aftershocks distribution and the recent GPS results, the ruptured fault was apt to the nodal plane striking at 194°, dipping 79° and rake 151° for Ms4.4 mainshock and 199°/73°/141°, representing strike/dip/rake, for Ms4.0 aftershock. This earthquake sequence was regarded as an adjustment of stress accumulation in the pull-apart Yuncheng Basin, implying that the energy around the boundary faults of the basin has accumulated continuously.

Longer aftershocks duration in extensional tectonic settings.

PubMed

Valerio, E; Tizzani, P; Carminati, E; Doglioni, C

2017-11-27

Aftershocks number decay through time, depending on several parameters peculiar to each seismogenic regions, including mainshock magnitude, crustal rheology, and stress changes along the fault. However, the exact role of these parameters in controlling the duration of the aftershock sequence is still unknown. Here, using two methodologies, we show that the tectonic setting primarily controls the duration of aftershocks. On average and for a given mainshock magnitude (1) aftershock sequences are longer and (2) the number of earthquakes is greater in extensional tectonic settings than in contractional ones. We interpret this difference as related to the different type of energy dissipated during earthquakes. In detail, (1) a joint effect of gravitational forces and pure elastic stress release governs extensional earthquakes, whereas (2) pure elastic stress release controls contractional earthquakes. Accordingly, normal faults operate in favour of gravity, preserving inertia for a longer period and seismicity lasts until gravitational equilibrium is reached. Vice versa, thrusts act against gravity, exhaust their inertia faster and the elastic energy dissipation is buffered by the gravitational force. Hence, for seismic sequences of comparable magnitude and rheological parameters, aftershocks last longer in extensional settings because gravity favours the collapse of the hangingwall volumes.

Mapping the rheology of the Central Chile subduction zone with aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, William B.; Poli, Piero; Perfettini, Hugo

2017-06-01

The postseismic deformation following a large (Mw >7) earthquake is expressed both seismically and aseismically. Recent studies have appealed to a model that suggests that the aseismic slip on the plate interface following the mainshock can be the driving factor in aftershock sequences, reproducing both the geodetic (afterslip) and seismic (aftershocks) observables of postseismic deformation. Exploiting this model, we demonstrate how a dense catalog of aftershocks following the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake in Central Chile can constrain the frictional and rheological properties of the creeping regions of the subduction interface. We first expand the aftershock catalog via a 19 month continuous matched-filter search and highlight the log-time expansion of seismicity following the mainshock, suggestive of afterslip as the main driver of aftershock activity. We then show how the time history of aftershocks can constrain the temporal evolution of afterslip. Finally, we use our dense aftershock catalog to estimate the rate and state rheological parameter (a - b)σ as a function of depth and demonstrate that this low value is compatible either with a nearly velocity-neutral friction (a≈b) in the regions of the megathrust that host afterslip, or an elevated pore fluid pressure (low effective normal stress σ) along the plate interface. Our results present the first snapshot of rheology in depth together with the evolution of the tectonic stressing rate along a plate boundary. The framework described here can be generalized to any tectonic context and provides a novel way to constrain the frictional properties and loading conditions of active faults.

Relocation of the 2012 Ms 7.0 Lushan Earthquake Aftershock Sequences and Its Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, L.; Wu, J.; Sun, Z.; Su, J.; Du, W.

2013-12-01

At 08:02 am on 20 April 2013 (Beijing time), an Ms 7.0 earthquake occurred in Lushan County, Sichuan Province. Lushan earthquake is another devastating earthquake occurred in Sichuan Province after 12 May 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. 193 people were killed, 25 people were missing and more than ten thousand people were injured in the earthquake. Direct economic losses were estimated to be more than 80 billion yuan (RMB). Lushan earthquake occurred in the southern part of the Longmenshan fault zone. The distance between the epicenters of Lushan earthquake and Wenchuan earthquake is about 87 km. In an effort to maximize observations of the aftershock sequence and study the seismotetonic model, we deployed 35 temporal seismic stations around the source area. The earthquake was followed by a productive aftershock sequence. By the end of 20 July more than 10,254 aftershocks were recorded by the temporal seismic network. The magnitude of the aftershock ranges from ML-0.5 to ML5.6. We first located the aftershocks using Hypo2000 (Kevin, 2000) and refined the location results with HYPODD (Waldhauser & Ellsworth, 2000). The 1-D velocity model used in relocation is modified from a deep seismic sounding profile near Lushan earthquake (Wang et al., 2007). The Vp/Vs ratio is set to 1.83 according to receiver function h-k study. A total of 8,129 events were relocated. The average location error in N-S, E-W and U-D direction is 0.30, 0.29 and 0.59 km, respectively. The relocation results show that the aftershocks spread approximately 35 km in length and 16 km in width. The dominant distribution of the focal depth ranges from 10 to 20 km. A few earthquakes occurred in the shallow crust. Focal depth sections crossing the source area show that the seismogenic fault dips to the northwest, manifested itself as a listric thrust fault. The dip angle of the seismogenic fault is approximately 63° in the shallow crust, about 41° near the source of the mainshock, and about 17° at the bottom of the fault. The focal depths of 28 aftershocks with ML≥4.0 were determined using Himalaya Seismic Array and sPn phase. The focal depths obtained from sPn phase are consistent with HYPODD, which also reveals a northwest-dipping fault. Since the earthquake did not cause significant surface rupture, the seismogenic structure of Lushan earthquake remains controversial. On the basis of aftershock relocation results, we speculate that the seismogenic fault of Lushan earthquake may be a blind thrust fault on the eastern side of the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault. The relocation results also reveal that there is a southeastward tilt aftershock belt intersecting with the seismogenic fault with y-shape. We infer that it is a back thrust fault that often appears in a thrust fault system. Lushan earthquake triggered the seismic activity of the back thrust fault.

Seismic Parameters of Mining-Induced Aftershock Sequences for Re-entry Protocol Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallejos, Javier A.; Estay, Rodrigo A.

2018-03-01

A common characteristic of deep mines in hard rock is induced seismicity. This results from stress changes and rock failure around mining excavations. Following large seismic events, there is an increase in the levels of seismicity, which gradually decay with time. Restricting access to areas of a mine for enough time to allow this decay of seismic events is the main approach in re-entry strategies. The statistical properties of aftershock sequences can be studied with three scaling relations: (1) Gutenberg-Richter frequency magnitude, (2) the modified Omori's law (MOL) for the temporal decay, and (3) Båth's law for the magnitude of the largest aftershock. In this paper, these three scaling relations, in addition to the stochastic Reasenberg-Jones model are applied to study the characteristic parameters of 11 large magnitude mining-induced aftershock sequences in four mines in Ontario, Canada. To provide guidelines for re-entry protocol development, the dependence of the scaling relation parameters on the magnitude of the main event are studied. Some relations between the parameters and the magnitude of the main event are found. Using these relationships and the scaling relations, a space-time-magnitude re-entry protocol is developed. These findings provide a first approximation to concise and well-justified guidelines for re-entry protocol development applicable to the range of mining conditions found in Ontario, Canada.

Seismo-Tectonics of the 2014 Chiang Rai, Thailand, Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furlong, K. P.; Pananont, P.; Herman, M. W.; Waldhauser, F.; Pornsopin, P.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.

2016-12-01

On 5 May 2014, a Mw 6.2 strike-slip earthquake struck in the Mae Lao region of Chiang Rai province in Thailand. This earthquake occurred in a region of known faults, but identified as relatively low earthquake hazard, and caused substantial damage and injuries. Detailed field reconnaissance and deployment of a dense, temporary seismometer network allowed details of the damage and its relationship to seismicity to be analyzed. The aftershock sequence associated with this mainshock occurs on two well-defined trends, reflecting the two potential fault planes in earthquake focal mechanisms for the mainshock and the majority of the aftershocks. The damage area was relatively large for an event of this magnitude, but primarily occurs within the primary rupture (aftershock) region or along regional rivers with soils susceptible to liquefaction of other ground failure. Stress modeling combined with the time-series and pattern of aftershock activity lead us to propose that the initial mainshock rupture continued slightly onto its conjugate faults near its northern termination, helping to trigger the distinct pattern of two discrete, conjugate trends of aftershock activity that mirror the kinematics of the mainshock fault mechanism. Although this earthquake occurred in a region of known faults, it cannot be directly linked to a previously mapped structure. This coupled with the substantial damage from the event indicates that there is potentially a higher earthquake hazard in northern and central Thailand than previously recognized.

A case study of two M~5 mainshocks in Anza, California: Is the footprint of an aftershock sequence larger than we think?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fritts, Karen R.; Kilb, Debi

2009-01-01

It has been traditionally held that aftershocks occur within one to two fault lengths of the mainshock. Here we demonstrate that this perception has been shaped by the sensitivity of seismic networks. The 31 October 2001 Mw 5.0 and 12 June 2005 Mw 5.2 Anza mainshocks in southern California occurred in the middle of the densely instrumented ANZA seismic network and thus were unusually well recorded. For the June 2005 event, aftershocks as small as M 0.0 could be observed stretching for at least 50 km along the San Jacinto fault even though the mainshock fault was only ∼4.5 km long. It was hypothesized that an observed aseismic slipping patch produced a spatially extended aftershock-triggering source, presumably slowing the decay of aftershock density with distance and leading to a broader aftershock zone. We find, however, the decay of aftershock density with distance for both Anza sequences to be similar to that observed elsewhere in California. This indicates there is no need for an additional triggering mechanism and suggests that given widespread dense instrumentation, aftershock sequences would routinely have footprints much larger than currently expected. Despite the large 2005 aftershock zone, we find that the probability that the 2005 Anza mainshock triggered the M 4.9 Yucaipa mainshock, which occurred 4.2 days later and 72 km away, to be only 14%±1%. This probability is a strong function of the time delay; had the earthquakes been separated by only an hour, the probability of triggering would have been 89%.

Automatic Classification of Extensive Aftershock Sequences Using Empirical Matched Field Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbons, Steven J.; Harris, David B.; Kværna, Tormod; Dodge, Douglas A.

2013-04-01

The aftershock sequences that follow large earthquakes create considerable problems for data centers attempting to produce comprehensive event bulletins in near real-time. The greatly increased number of events which require processing can overwhelm analyst resources and reduce the capacity for analyzing events of monitoring interest. This exacerbates a potentially reduced detection capability at key stations, due the noise generated by the sequence, and a deterioration in the quality of the fully automatic preliminary event bulletins caused by the difficulty in associating the vast numbers of closely spaced arrivals over the network. Considerable success has been enjoyed by waveform correlation methods for the automatic identification of groups of events belonging to the same geographical source region, facilitating the more time-efficient analysis of event ensembles as opposed to individual events. There are, however, formidable challenges associated with the automation of correlation procedures. The signal generated by a very large earthquake seldom correlates well enough with the signals generated by far smaller aftershocks for a correlation detector to produce statistically significant triggers at the correct times. Correlation between events within clusters of aftershocks is significantly better, although the issues of when and how to initiate new pattern detectors are still being investigated. Empirical Matched Field Processing (EMFP) is a highly promising method for detecting event waveforms suitable as templates for correlation detectors. EMFP is a quasi-frequency-domain technique that calibrates the spatial structure of a wavefront crossing a seismic array in a collection of narrow frequency bands. The amplitude and phase weights that result are applied in a frequency-domain beamforming operation that compensates for scattering and refraction effects not properly modeled by plane-wave beams. It has been demonstrated to outperform waveform correlation as a classifier of ripple-fired mining blasts since the narrowband procedure is insensitive to differences in the source-time functions. For sequences in which the spectral content and time-histories of the signals from the main shock and aftershocks vary greatly, the spatial structure calibrated by EMFP is an invariant that permits reliable detection of events in the specific source region. Examples from the 2005 Kashmir and 2011 Van earthquakes demonstrate how EMFP templates from the main events detect arrivals from the aftershock sequences with high sensitivity and exceptionally low false alarm rates. Classical waveform correlation detectors are demonstrated to fail for these examples. Even arrivals with SNR below unity can produce significant EMFP triggers as the spatial pattern of the incoming wavefront is identified, leading to robust detections at a greater number of stations and potentially more reliable automatic bulletins. False EMFP triggers are readily screened by scanning a space of phase shifts relative to the imposed template. EMFP has the potential to produce a rapid and robust overview of the evolving aftershock sequence such that correlation and subspace detectors can be applied semi-autonomously, with well-chosen parameter specifications, to identify and classify clusters of very closely spaced aftershocks.

Some facts about aftershocks to large earthquakes in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucile M.; Reasenberg, Paul A.

1996-01-01

Earthquakes occur in clusters. After one earthquake happens, we usually see others at nearby (or identical) locations. To talk about this phenomenon, seismologists coined three terms foreshock , mainshock , and aftershock. In any cluster of earthquakes, the one with the largest magnitude is called the mainshock; earthquakes that occur before the mainshock are called foreshocks while those that occur after the mainshock are called aftershocks. A mainshock will be redefined as a foreshock if a subsequent event in the cluster has a larger magnitude. Aftershock sequences follow predictable patterns. That is, a sequence of aftershocks follows certain global patterns as a group, but the individual earthquakes comprising the group are random and unpredictable. This relationship between the pattern of a group and the randomness (stochastic nature) of the individuals has a close parallel in actuarial statistics. We can describe the pattern that aftershock sequences tend to follow with well-constrained equations. However, we must keep in mind that the actual aftershocks are only probabilistically described by these equations. Once the parameters in these equations have been estimated, we can determine the probability of aftershocks occurring in various space, time and magnitude ranges as described below. Clustering of earthquakes usually occurs near the location of the mainshock. The stress on the mainshock's fault changes drastically during the mainshock and that fault produces most of the aftershocks. This causes a change in the regional stress, the size of which decreases rapidly with distance from the mainshock. Sometimes the change in stress caused by the mainshock is great enough to trigger aftershocks on other, nearby faults. While there is no hard "cutoff" distance beyond which an earthquake is totally incapable of triggering an aftershock, the vast majority of aftershocks are located close to the mainshock. As a rule of thumb, we consider earthquakes to be aftershocks if they are located within a characteristic distance from the mainshock. This distance is usually taken to be one or two times the length of the fault rupture associated with the mainshock. For example, if the mainshock ruptured a 100 km length of a fault, subsequent earthquakes up to 100-200 km away from the mainshock rupture would be considered aftershocks. The fault rupture length was approximately 15 km in the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and 430 km in the great 1906 earthquake.

Aftershocks of microearthquakes as probes of the mechanics of rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, Allan M.

2002-07-01

Using a waveform cross-correlation technique, Rubin and Gillard [2000] obtained precise relative locations for 4300 0.5 < M < 3.5 earthquakes occurring along 50 km of the San Andreas fault. This study adds to that another 5000 earthquakes distributed along 10 km of the San Andreas fault and 20 km of the Calaveras fault. Errors in relative location are typically tens of meters for earthquakes separated by hundreds of meters and, after correcting for time-dependent station delays, meters for earthquakes separated by tens of meters. Along both faults, the minimum separation between consecutive earthquakes scales with magnitude in a manner consistent with a magnitude-independent stress drop. By treating each earthquake on the San Andreas as if it were a main shock, scaling the distances to all subsequent earthquakes by main shock size, and stacking the results, a ``composite'' aftershock sequence is produced that has many of the characteristics predicted by rate-and-state friction models. Projected onto the fault surface, these aftershocks outline a quasi-elliptical, roughly 4-MPa stress drop main shock elongate in the slip-parallel direction by ~40%. At the ends of the major axes of this ellipse over twice as many aftershocks occur to the NW than to the SE, an asymmetry attributed to the contrast in material properties across the fault. Unlike the San Andreas, the Calaveras fault exhibits little P wave velocity contrast and no discernible aftershock asymmetry; however, the earliest part of the aftershock sequence on the Calaveras might be truncated by the ~30-s ``blind'' time of the network following a triggering event.

The Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake aftershock sequence, event catalog and locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meltzer, A.; Benz, H.; Brown, L.; Russo, R. M.; Beck, S. L.; Roecker, S. W.

2011-12-01

The aftershock sequence of the Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake off the coast of Chile in February 2010 is one of the most well-recorded aftershock sequences from a great megathrust earthquake. Immediately following the Maule earthquake, teams of geophysicists from Chile, France, Germany, Great Britain and the United States coordinated resources to capture aftershocks and other seismic signals associated with this significant earthquake. In total, 91 broadband, 48 short period, and 25 accelerometers stations were deployed above the rupture zone of the main shock from 33-38.5°S and from the coast to the Andean range front. In order to integrate these data into a unified catalog, the USGS National Earthquake Information Center develop procedures to use their real-time seismic monitoring system (Bulletin Hydra) to detect, associate, location and compute earthquake source parameters from these stations. As a first step in the process, the USGS has built a seismic catalog of all M3.5 or larger earthquakes for the time period of the main aftershock deployment from March 2010-October 2010. The catalog includes earthquake locations, magnitudes (Ml, Mb, Mb_BB, Ms, Ms_BB, Ms_VX, Mc), associated phase readings and regional moment tensor solutions for most of the M4 or larger events. Also included in the catalog are teleseismic phases and amplitude measures and body-wave MT and CMT solutions for the larger events, typically M5.5 and larger. Tuning of automated detection and association parameters should allow a complete catalog of events to approximately M2.5 or larger for that dataset of more than 164 stations. We characterize the aftershock sequence in terms of magnitude, frequency, and location over time. Using the catalog locations and travel times as a starting point we use double difference techniques to investigate relative locations and earthquake clustering. In addition, phase data from candidate ground truth events and modeling of surface waves can be used to calibrate the velocity structure of central Chile to improve the real-time monitoring.

Model-free aftershock forecasts constructed from similar sequences in the past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Elst, N.; Page, M. T.

2017-12-01

The basic premise behind aftershock forecasting is that sequences in the future will be similar to those in the past. Forecast models typically use empirically tuned parametric distributions to approximate past sequences, and project those distributions into the future to make a forecast. While parametric models do a good job of describing average outcomes, they are not explicitly designed to capture the full range of variability between sequences, and can suffer from over-tuning of the parameters. In particular, parametric forecasts may produce a high rate of "surprises" - sequences that land outside the forecast range. Here we present a non-parametric forecast method that cuts out the parametric "middleman" between training data and forecast. The method is based on finding past sequences that are similar to the target sequence, and evaluating their outcomes. We quantify similarity as the Poisson probability that the observed event count in a past sequence reflects the same underlying intensity as the observed event count in the target sequence. Event counts are defined in terms of differential magnitude relative to the mainshock. The forecast is then constructed from the distribution of past sequences outcomes, weighted by their similarity. We compare the similarity forecast with the Reasenberg and Jones (RJ95) method, for a set of 2807 global aftershock sequences of M≥6 mainshocks. We implement a sequence-specific RJ95 forecast using a global average prior and Bayesian updating, but do not propagate epistemic uncertainty. The RJ95 forecast is somewhat more precise than the similarity forecast: 90% of observed sequences fall within a factor of two of the median RJ95 forecast value, whereas the fraction is 85% for the similarity forecast. However, the surprise rate is much higher for the RJ95 forecast; 10% of observed sequences fall in the upper 2.5% of the (Poissonian) forecast range. The surprise rate is less than 3% for the similarity forecast. The similarity forecast may be useful to emergency managers and non-specialists when confidence or expertise in parametric forecasting may be lacking. The method makes over-tuning impossible, and minimizes the rate of surprises. At the least, this forecast constitutes a useful benchmark for more precisely tuned parametric forecasts.

Detailed fault structure of the 2000 Western Tottori, Japan, earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fukuyama, E.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Waldhauser, F.; Kubo, A.

2003-01-01

We investigate the faulting process of the aftershock region of the 2000 western Tottori earthquake (Mw 6.6) by combining aftershock hypocenters and moment tensor solutions. Aftershock locations were precisely determined by the double difference method using P- and S-phase arrival data of the Japan Meteorological Agency unified catalog. By combining the relocated hypocenters and moment tensor solutions of aftershocks by broadband waveform inversion of FREESIA (F-net), we successfully resolved very detailed fault structures activated by the mainshock. The estimated fault model resolves 15 individual fault segments that are consistent with both aftershock distribution and focal mechanism solutions. Rupture in the mainshock was principally confined to the three fault elements in the southern half of the zone, which is also where the earliest aftershocks concentrate. With time, the northern part of the zone becomes activated, which is also reflected in the postseismic deformation field. From the stress tensor analysis of aftershock focal mechanisms, we found a rather uniform stress field in the aftershock region, although fault strikes were scattered. The maximum stress direction is N107??E, which is consistent with the tectonic stress field in this region. In the northern part of the fault, where no slip occurred during the mainshock but postseismic slip was observed, the maximum stress direction of N130??E was possible as an alternative solution of stress tensor inversion.

Aftershock collapse vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete frame structures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raghunandan, Meera; Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas

2015-01-01

In a seismically active region, structures may be subjected to multiple earthquakes, due to mainshock–aftershock phenomena or other sequences, leaving no time for repair or retrofit between the events. This study quantifies the aftershock vulnerability of four modern ductile reinforced concrete (RC) framed buildings in California by conducting incremental dynamic analysis of nonlinear MDOF analytical models. Based on the nonlinear dynamic analysis results, collapse and damage fragility curves are generated for intact and damaged buildings. If the building is not severely damaged in the mainshock, its collapse capacity is unaffected in the aftershock. However, if the building is extensively damaged in the mainshock, there is a significant reduction in its collapse capacity in the aftershock. For example, if an RC frame experiences 4% or more interstory drift in the mainshock, the median capacity to resist aftershock shaking is reduced by about 40%. The study also evaluates the effectiveness of different measures of physical damage observed in the mainshock-damaged buildings for predicting the reduction in collapse capacity of the damaged building in subsequent aftershocks. These physical damage indicators for the building are chosen such that they quantify the qualitative red tagging (unsafe for occupation) criteria employed in post-earthquake evaluation of RC frames. The results indicated that damage indicators related to the drift experienced by the damaged building best predicted the reduced aftershock collapse capacities for these ductile structures.

Computer simulation of earthquakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, S. C.

1976-01-01

Two computer simulation models of earthquakes were studied for the dependence of the pattern of events on the model assumptions and input parameters. Both models represent the seismically active region by mechanical blocks which are connected to one another and to a driving plate. The blocks slide on a friction surface. In the first model elastic forces were employed and time independent friction to simulate main shock events. The size, length, and time and place of event occurrence were influenced strongly by the magnitude and degree of homogeniety in the elastic and friction parameters of the fault region. Periodically reoccurring similar events were frequently observed in simulations with near homogeneous parameters along the fault, whereas, seismic gaps were a common feature of simulations employing large variations in the fault parameters. The second model incorporated viscoelastic forces and time-dependent friction to account for aftershock sequences. The periods between aftershock events increased with time and the aftershock region was confined to that which moved in the main event.

Shallow megathrust earthquake ruptures betrayed by their outer-trench aftershocks signature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sladen, Anthony; Trevisan, Jenny

2018-02-01

For some megathrust earthquakes, the rupture extends to the solid Earth's surface, at the ocean floor. This unexpected behaviour holds strong implications for the tsunami potential of subduction zones and for the physical conditions governing earthquakes, but such ruptures occur in underwater areas which are hard to observe, even with current instrumentation and imaging techniques. Here, we evidence that aftershocks occurring ocean-ward from the trench are conditioned by near-surface rupture of the megathrust fault. Comparison to well constrained earthquake slip models further reveals that for each event the number of aftershocks is proportional to the amount of shallow slip, a link likely related to static stress transfer. Hence, the spatial distribution of these specific aftershock sequences could provide independent constrains on the coseismic shallow slip of future events. It also offers the prospect to be able to reassess the rupture of many large subduction earthquakes back to the beginning of the instrumental era.

Physics-based and statistical earthquake forecasting in a continental rift zone: the case study of Corinth Gulf (Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segou, Margarita

2016-01-01

I perform a retrospective forecast experiment in the most rapid extensive continental rift worldwide, the western Corinth Gulf (wCG, Greece), aiming to predict shallow seismicity (depth <15 km) with magnitude M ≥ 3.0 for the time period between 1995 and 2013. I compare two short-term earthquake clustering models, based on epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) statistics, four physics-based (CRS) models, combining static stress change estimations and the rate-and-state laboratory law and one hybrid model. For the latter models, I incorporate the stress changes imparted from 31 earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 4.5 at the extended area of wCG. Special attention is given on the 3-D representation of active faults, acting as potential receiver planes for the estimation of static stress changes. I use reference seismicity between 1990 and 1995, corresponding to the learning phase of physics-based models, and I evaluate the forecasts for six months following the 1995 M = 6.4 Aigio earthquake using log-likelihood performance metrics. For the ETAS realizations, I use seismic events with magnitude M ≥ 2.5 within daily update intervals to enhance their predictive power. For assessing the role of background seismicity, I implement a stochastic reconstruction (aka declustering) aiming to answer whether M > 4.5 earthquakes correspond to spontaneous events and identify, if possible, different triggering characteristics between aftershock sequences and swarm-type seismicity periods. I find that: (1) ETAS models outperform CRS models in most time intervals achieving very low rejection ratio RN = 6 per cent, when I test their efficiency to forecast the total number of events inside the study area, (2) the best rejection ratio for CRS models reaches RN = 17 per cent, when I use varying target depths and receiver plane geometry, (3) 75 per cent of the 1995 Aigio aftershocks that occurred within the first month can be explained by static stress changes, (4) highly variable performance on behalf of both statistical and physical models is suggested by large confidence intervals of information gain per earthquake and (5) generic ETAS models can adequately predict the temporal evolution of seismicity during swarms. Furthermore, stochastic reconstruction of seismicity makes possible the identification of different triggering processes between specific seismic crises (2001, 2003-04, 2006-07) and the 1995 aftershock sequence. I find that: (1) seismic events with M ≥ 5.0 are not a part of a preceding earthquake cascade, since they are characterized by high probability being a background event (average Pback > 0.8) and (2) triggered seismicity within swarms is characterized by lower event productivity when compared with the corresponding value during aftershock sequences. I conclude that physics-based models contribute on the determination of the `new-normal' seismicity rate at longer time intervals and that their joint implementation with statistical models is beneficial for future operational forecast systems.

Foreshocks and aftershocks of the Great 1857 California earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

1999-01-01

The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults anywhere in the world, yet we know little about many aspects of its behavior before, during, and after large earthquakes. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1857 M 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on the central and southern segments of the fault. We began by searching archived first-hand accounts from 1857 through 1862, by grouping felt reports temporally, and by assigning modified Mercalli intensities to each site. We then used a modified form of the grid-search algorithm of Bakum and Wentworth, derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes, to find the location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities for each of the largest events. The result confirms a conclusion of Sieh that at least two foreshocks ('dawn' and 'sunrise') located on or near the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault preceded the mainshock. We estimate their magnitudes to be M ~ 6.1 and M ~ 5.6, respectively. The aftershock rate was below average but within one standard deviation of the number of aftershocks expected based on statistics of modern southern California mainshock-aftershock sequences. The aftershocks included two significant events during the first eight days of the sequence, with magnitudes M ~ 6.25 and M ~ 6.7, near the southern half of the rupture; later aftershocks included a M ~ 6 event near San Bernardino in December 1858 and a M ~ 6.3 event near the Parkfield segment in April 1860. From earthquake logs at Fort Tejon, we conclude that the aftershock sequence lasted a minimum of 3.75 years.

Pore Pressure Pulse Drove the 2012 Emilia (Italy) Series of Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pezzo, Giuseppe; De Gori, Pasquale; Lucente, Francesco Pio; Chiarabba, Claudio

2018-01-01

The 2012 Emilia earthquakes sequence is the first debated case in Italy of destructive event possibly induced by anthropic activity. During this sequence, two main earthquakes occurred separated by 9 days on contiguous thrust faults. Scientific commissions engaged by the Italian government reported complementary scenarios on the potential trigger mechanism ascribable to exploitation of a nearby oil field. In this study, we combine a refined geodetic source model constrained by precise aftershock locations and an improved tomographic model of the area to define the geometrical relation between the activated faults and investigate possible triggering mechanisms. An aftershock decay rate that deviates from the classical Omori-like pattern and Vp/Vs changes along the fault system suggests that natural pore pressure pulse drove the space-time evolution of seismicity and the activation of the second main shock.

Open Source Tools for Seismicity Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powers, P.

2010-12-01

The spatio-temporal analysis of seismicity plays an important role in earthquake forecasting and is integral to research on earthquake interactions and triggering. For instance, the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF), currently under development, will use Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) as a model for earthquake triggering. UCERF will be a "living" model and therefore requires robust, tested, and well-documented ETAS algorithms to ensure transparency and reproducibility. Likewise, as earthquake aftershock sequences unfold, real-time access to high quality hypocenter data makes it possible to monitor the temporal variability of statistical properties such as the parameters of the Omori Law and the Gutenberg Richter b-value. Such statistical properties are valuable as they provide a measure of how much a particular sequence deviates from expected behavior and can be used when assigning probabilities of aftershock occurrence. To address these demands and provide public access to standard methods employed in statistical seismology, we present well-documented, open-source JavaScript and Java software libraries for the on- and off-line analysis of seismicity. The Javascript classes facilitate web-based asynchronous access to earthquake catalog data and provide a framework for in-browser display, analysis, and manipulation of catalog statistics; implementations of this framework will be made available on the USGS Earthquake Hazards website. The Java classes, in addition to providing tools for seismicity analysis, provide tools for modeling seismicity and generating synthetic catalogs. These tools are extensible and will be released as part of the open-source OpenSHA Commons library.

Aftershock communication during the Canterbury Earthquakes, New Zealand: implications for response and recovery in the built environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Julia Becker,; Wein, Anne; Sally Potter,; Emma Doyle,; Ratliff, Jamie L.

2015-01-01

On 4 September 2010, a Mw7.1 earthquake occurred in Canterbury, New Zealand. Following the initial earthquake, an aftershock sequence was initiated, with the most significant aftershock being a Mw6.3 earthquake occurring on 22 February 2011. This aftershock caused severe damage to the city of Christchurch and building failures that killed 185 people. During the aftershock sequence it became evident that effective communication of aftershock information (e.g., history and forecasts) was imperative to assist with decision making during the response and recovery phases of the disaster, as well as preparedness for future aftershock events. As a consequence, a joint JCDR-USGS research project was initiated to investigate: • How aftershock information was communicated to organisations and to the public; • How people interpreted that information; • What people did in response to receiving that information; • What information people did and did not need; and • What decision-making challenges were encountered relating to aftershocks. Research was conducted by undertaking focus group meetings and interviews with a range of information providers and users, including scientists and science advisors, emergency managers and responders, engineers, communication officers, businesses, critical infrastructure operators, elected officials, and the public. The interviews and focus group meetings were recorded and transcribed, and key themes were identified. This paper focuses on the aftershock information needs for decision-making about the built environment post-earthquake, including those involved in response (e.g., for building assessment and management), recovery/reduction (e.g., the development of new building standards), and readiness (e.g. between aftershocks). The research has found that the communication of aftershock information varies with time, is contextual, and is affected by interactions among roles, by other information, and by decision objectives. A number of general and specific insights into improving the communication of aftershock information are provided.

AFTERSHOCK SEQUENCES AND CRUSTAL STRUCTURE IN THE REGION OF GREECE.

DTIC Science & Technology

the strain release characteristics and other properties of the aftershock and foreshock sequences (1) of all shocks of M 5.9 which have occurred in...relation between the water loading of two artificial lakes in the region of Greece and the earthquake activity in foreshocks or swarm of shocks triggered

Seismotectonics of the 2014 Chiang Rai, Thailand, earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pananont, P.; Herman, M. W.; Pornsopin, P.; Furlong, K. P.; Habangkaem, S.; Waldhauser, F.; Wongwai, W.; Limpisawad, S.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Wechbunthung, B.

2017-08-01

On 5 May 2014, a Mw 6.2 strike-slip earthquake occurred in the Mae Lao region of Chiang Rai province in Thailand. This earthquake took place in a region of known faults and caused substantial damage and injuries, although the region had been previously identified as having a relatively low earthquake hazard. Detailed field reconnaissance and deployment of a dense, temporary, network of broadband seismometers allowed details of the damage and its relationship to seismicity to be analyzed. The aftershock sequence associated with this main shock occurs on two well-defined trends, reflecting the two potential fault planes in earthquake mechanisms for the main shock and the majority of the aftershocks. The damage area was relatively large for an event of this magnitude, but building damage was largely limited to the primary rupture region, while liquefaction and other ground failure are spatially associated with the rupture area and along regional rivers. Stress modeling, combined with the time series and pattern of aftershock activity, leads us to propose that slip near the northern termination of the main shock rupture continued slightly onto a conjugate fault, helping to trigger the distinct pattern of two discrete, conjugate trends of aftershock activity that mirror the kinematics of the main shock fault mechanism.

Computational Software for Fitting Seismic Data to Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, A.

2014-12-01

Modern earthquake catalogs are often analyzed using spatial-temporal point process models such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). My work introduces software to implement two of ETAS models described in Ogata (1998). To find the Maximum-Likelihood Estimates (MLEs), my software provides estimates of the homogeneous background rate parameter and the temporal and spatial parameters that govern triggering effects by applying the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm introduced in Veen and Schoenberg (2008). Despite other computer programs exist for similar data modeling purpose, using EM-algorithm has the benefits of stability and robustness (Veen and Schoenberg, 2008). Spatial shapes that are very long and narrow cause difficulties in optimization convergence and problems with flat or multi-modal log-likelihood functions encounter similar issues. My program uses a robust method to preset a parameter to overcome the non-convergence computational issue. In addition to model fitting, the software is equipped with useful tools for examining modeling fitting results, for example, visualization of estimated conditional intensity, and estimation of expected number of triggered aftershocks. A simulation generator is also given with flexible spatial shapes that may be defined by the user. This open-source software has a very simple user interface. The user may execute it on a local computer, and the program also has potential to be hosted online. Java language is used for the software's core computing part and an optional interface to the statistical package R is provided.

The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Jolivet, Romain; Simons, Mark; Rivera, Luis; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Riel, Bryan; Owen, Susan E; Moore, Angelyn W; Samsonov, Sergey V; Ortega Culaciati, Francisco; Minson, Sarah E.

2016-01-01

The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.

Growth of a Structure Connecting the 2010 M 7.2 El Mayor - Cucapah Rupture with the Elsinore Faul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnellan, A.; Parker, J. W.

2015-12-01

The M 7.2 El Mayor - Cucapah earthquake occurred on 4 April 2010 in the northern part of Baja, Mexico. The rupture extended about 120 km from near the northern tip of the Gulf of California to the US - Mexican border south of the Elsinore fault zone. Most of the aftershocks occurred within days of the main event. On 14 June 2010 a M 5.7 late aftershock occurred 8 km southeast of Ocotillo, CA and is the largest aftershock in the sequence. The right-lateral event occurred in a cluster of aftershocks and was followed by its own aftershock sequence. UAVSAR data were collected for a swath covering the aftershock on 13 April, 2010 just after the El Mayor - Cucapah earthquake and before the earthquake on 21 October 2009. The line was reflown 1 July 2010 after the M 5.7 14 June 2010 aftershock. Data have been continued to be collected semi yearly to yearly since then. Repeat Pass Interferomety (RPI) products spanning the aftershock show the growth of a lineament that with an azimuth of 121.5° or a strike of -58.5°. The interferograms suggest that a stepover develops following the earthquake. The epicenter of the M 5.7 aftershock is proximal to the linear discontinuity in the postseismic interferogram and the mechanism of the event is consistent with slip on this stepover. Inversions for slip on the northeast linear structure that steps west of the mainshock rupture yield a moment magnitude ranging from 5.5 - 5.8, which is consistent with the magnitude of the aftershock. Slip occurs at a depth of 2-10 km on a steeply dipping fault.

Improved detection and relocation of micro-earthquakes applied to the Sea of Marmara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tary, J. B.; Evangelia, B.; Géli, L.; Lomax, A.

2016-12-01

The Sea of Marmara is located at the western end of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). This part of the NAF is considered as a seismic gap, being between the Izmit and Duzce earthquakes to the East and the Ganos earthquake to the West. Improved detection and location of seismicity in the Sea of Marmara is important for defining the seismic hazard in this area.On July 25, 2011, a Mw 5 earthquake occurred below the Western High in the western part of the Sea of Marmara. This earthquake as well as its aftershock sequence were recorded by a network of 10 ocean bottom seismometers (Ifremer) as well as seafloor observatories (KOERI). The OBSs were deployed from mid-April, 2011, to the end of July, 2011.The aftershock sequence is characterized by deep seismicity ( 10-15 km) around the main shock and shallow seismicity. Some of the shallow seismicity could be located at a similar depth as gas prone sediment layers below the Western High. The exact causes of these shallow aftershocks are still unclear. To better define this aftershock sequence, we use the match filter technique with a selection of aftershocks as templates to dig out child events from the continuous data streams. The templates are cross-correlated with the continuous data for stations with absolute time picks. The cross-correlation coefficients are then summed over all stations and components, and we then compute its median absolute deviation (MAD). Signals are detected when the summed cross-correlation time series exceeds a given number of times the MAD. Using a conservative detection threshold, we obtain a 10-fold increase in the number of events. The newly detected events are then relocated using the double-difference technique. With these newly detected events, we investigate the nucleation phase of the main shock and the aftershock sequence, as well as the possible triggering of the shallow aftershocks by the deeper seismicity.

Aftershock sequence of ML6.1 earthquake in Sakhalin: recovery with waveform cross correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitov, Ivan; Konovalov, Alexey; Stepnov, Andrey; Turuntaev, Sergey

2017-04-01

The Sakhalin Island is characterized by relatively high seismic activity. The largest measured earthquake of Mw=7.0 occurred in 1995 near the town of Neftegorsk. It was followed by a long-lasting aftershock sequence. Based on the results of our previous analysis of this aftershock sequence with the method of waveform cross correlation (WCC), we have recovered an aftershock sequence of the ML 6.1 earthquake occurred on August 14, 2016 at 11:15:13.1 (UTC). The epicentre of this earthquake estimated by near-regional data has geographic coordinates 50.351N i 142.395E, with the focal depth of 9 km. The aftershock catalogue compiled by the eqaler.ru resource includes 133 events within 20 days from the main shock. We used P- and S-wave signals from the main shock and a few largest aftershocks from the catalogue as waveform templates. Cross correlation of continuous waveforms with these templates was carried out at six closest seismic stations of the regional network, with four stations to northeast and two stations to southwest of the epicentre. For detection, we used standard STA/LTA method with thresholds depending on seismic phase and station. The accuracy of onset time estimation by the STA/LTA detector based on the obtained CC-traces is close to a few samples, with the sampling rate of 40 Hz at all stations. Arrival times of all detected signals were reduced to origin times using the observed travel times from the master-events to six stations. For a given master event, clusters of origin times are considered as event hypotheses in a local association procedure. When several master events find the same physical signal, we resolve conflict using the number of associated stations and then the RMS origin time residual. In total, more than 190 aftershocks were found with three and more associated stations and five and more associated phases. This is by 40% more than the number of aftershocks in the original catalogue. Their magnitudes vary between 1.5 and 4.5. We also applied the relative location procedure to all found aftershocks, which were moved closer to the main shock. The epicentres of relocated aftershocks tend to cluster in the narrow zone corresponding to the western (hanging) wing of the Central Sakhalin upthrow-thrust fault zone, which defines the boundary between the Okhotsk and Eurasian (or Amur) plates.

Seismic constraints and coulomb stress changes of a blind thrust fault system, 1: Coalinga and Kettleman hills, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lin, Jian; Stein, Ross S.

2006-01-01

This report reviews the seismicity and surface ruptures associated with the 1982-1985 earthquake sequence in the Coalinga region in California, and the role of Coulomb stress in triggering the mainshock sequence and aftershocks. The 1982-1985 New Idria, Coalinga, and Kettleman Hills earthquakes struck on a series of west-dipping, en echelon blind thrust faults. Each earthquake was accompanied by uplift of a Quaternary anticline atop the fault, and each was accompanied by a vigorous aftershock sequence. Aftershocks were widely dispersed, and are seen above and below the thrust fault, as well as along the up-dip and down-dip projection of the main thrust fault. For the Coalinga and Kettleman Hills earthquakes, high-angle reverse faults in the core of the anticlines are evident in seismic reflection profiles, and many of these faults are associated with small aftershocks. The shallowest aftershocks extended to within 3-4 km of the ground surface. There is no compelling evidence for aftershocks associated with flexural slip faulting. No secondary surface rupture was found on any of the anticlines. In contrast, the 1983 Nu?ez rupture struck on a high-angle reverse fault 10 km west of the Coalinga epicenter, and over a 40-80-day period, up to 1 m of oblique surface slip occurred. The slip on this Holocene fault likely extended from the ground surface to a depth of 8-10 km. We argue that both the Nu?ez and Kettleman earthquakes were triggered by stresses imparted by the Coalinga mainshock, which was the largest of the four events in the sequence.

International Aftershock Forecasting: Lessons from the Gorkha Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, A. J.; Blanpied, M. L.; Brady, S. R.; van der Elst, N.; Hardebeck, J.; Mayberry, G. C.; Page, M. T.; Smoczyk, G. M.; Wein, A. M.

2015-12-01

Following the M7.8 Gorhka, Nepal, earthquake of April 25, 2015 the USGS issued a series of aftershock forecasts. The initial impetus for these forecasts was a request from the USAID Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance to support their Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) which coordinated US Government disaster response, including search and rescue, with the Government of Nepal. Because of the possible utility of the forecasts to people in the region and other response teams, the USGS released these forecasts publicly through the USGS Earthquake Program web site. The initial forecast used the Reasenberg and Jones (Science, 1989) model with generic parameters developed for active deep continental regions based on the Garcia et al. (BSSA, 2012) tectonic regionalization. These were then updated to reflect a lower productivity and higher decay rate based on the observed aftershocks, although relying on teleseismic observations, with a high magnitude-of-completeness, limited the amount of data. After the 12 May M7.3 aftershock, the forecasts used an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model to better characterize the multiple sources of earthquake clustering. This model provided better estimates of aftershock uncertainty. These forecast messages were crafted based on lessons learned from the Christchurch earthquake along with input from the U.S. Embassy staff in Kathmandu. Challenges included how to balance simple messaging with forecasts over a variety of time periods (week, month, and year), whether to characterize probabilities with words such as those suggested by the IPCC (IPCC, 2010), how to word the messages in a way that would translate accurately into Nepali and not alarm the public, and how to present the probabilities of unlikely but possible large and potentially damaging aftershocks, such as the M7.3 event, which had an estimated probability of only 1-in-200 for the week in which it occurred.

A Fluid-driven Earthquake Cycle, Omori's Law, and Fluid-driven Aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, S. A.

2015-12-01

Few models exist that predict the Omori's Law of aftershock rate decay, with rate-state friction the only physically-based model. ETAS is a probabilistic model of cascading failures, and is sometimes used to infer rate-state frictional properties. However, the (perhaps dominant) role of fluids in the earthquake process is being increasingly realised, so a fluid-based physical model for Omori's Law should be available. In this talk, I present an hypothesis for a fluid-driven earthquake cycle where dehydration and decarbonization at depth provides continuous sources of buoyant high pressure fluids that must eventually make their way back to the surface. The natural pathway for fluid escape is along plate boundaries, where in the ductile regime high pressure fluids likely play an integral role in episodic tremor and slow slip earthquakes. At shallower levels, high pressure fluids pool at the base of seismogenic zones, with the reservoir expanding in scale through the earthquake cycle. Late in the cycle, these fluids can invade and degrade the strength of the brittle crust and contribute to earthquake nucleation. The mainshock opens permeable networks that provide escape pathways for high pressure fluids and generate aftershocks along these flow paths, while creating new pathways by the aftershocks themselves. Thermally activated precipitation then seals up these pathways, returning the system to a low-permeability environment and effective seal during the subsequent tectonic stress buildup. I find that the multiplicative effect of an exponential dependence of permeability on the effective normal stress coupled with an Arrhenius-type, thermally activated exponential reduction in permeability results in Omori's Law. I simulate this scenario using a very simple model that combines non-linear diffusion and a step-wise increase in permeability when a Mohr Coulomb failure condition is met, and allow permeability to decrease as an exponential function in time. I show very strong spatial correlations of the simulated evolved permeability and fluid pressure field with aftershock hypocenters from this 1992 Landers and 1994 Northridge aftershock sequences, and reproduce the observed aftershock decay rates. Controls on the decay rates (p-value) will also be discussed.

Distribution of the largest aftershocks in branching models of triggered seismicity: theory of the universal Båth law.

PubMed

Saichev, A; Sornette, D

2005-05-01

Using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching model of triggered seismicity, we apply the formalism of generating probability functions to calculate exactly the average difference between the magnitude of a mainshock and the magnitude of its largest aftershock over all generations. This average magnitude difference is found empirically to be independent of the mainshock magnitude and equal to 1.2, a universal behavior known as Båth's law. Our theory shows that Båth's law holds only sufficiently close to the critical regime of the ETAS branching process. Allowing for error bars +/- 0.1 for Båth's constant value around 1.2, our exact analytical treatment of Båth's law provides new constraints on the productivity exponent alpha and the branching ratio n: 0.9 approximately < alpha < or =1. We propose a method for measuring alpha based on the predicted renormalization of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of the magnitudes of the largest aftershock. We also introduce the "second Båth law for foreshocks:" the probability that a main earthquake turns out to be the foreshock does not depend on its magnitude rho.

Seismotectonics of the May 19, 2011 Simav- Kutahya Earthquake Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komec Mutlu, Ahu

2014-05-01

Aftershock sequence of May 19, 2011 Simav earthquake (Mw = 5.8) is relocated with a new 1-D seismic velocity model and focal mechanisms of largest aftershocks are determined. The May 19, 2011 Simav-Kutahya earthquake is occured in the most seismically active region of western Turkey. During six months after the mainshock, more than 5000 earthquakes are recorded and aftershocks followed over a period of almost two years. In this study, more than 7600 aftershocks occured between years 2011 and 2012 with magnitudes greater than 1.8 relocated. Waveform data is collected by 13 three component seismic stations from three different networks (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (NEMC-National Earthquake Monitoring Center), Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, Department of Earthquake and Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University Geophysics Department). These seismic stations are deployed closer than 80 km epicentral distance in the Simav-Kutahya. Average crustal velocity and average crustal thickness for the region are computed as 5.68 km/sn and 37.6 km, respectively. The source mechanism of fifty aftershocks with magnitudes greater than 4.0 are derived from first motion P phases. Analysis of focal mechanisms indicate mainly normal fault motions with oblique slip.

New insights on co- and post-seismic deformation and slip behavior associated with the Mw7.8 2016 Pedernales, Ecuador earthquake and its aftershock sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soto-Cordero, L.; Nealy, J. L.; Meltzer, A.; Agurto-Detzel, H.; Alvarado, A. P.; Beck, S. L.; Benz, H.; Bergman, E. A.; Charvis, P.; Font, Y.; Hayes, G. P.; Hernandez, S.; Hoskins, M.; Leon Rios, S.; Lynner, C.; Regnier, M. M.; Rietbrock, A.; Stachnik, J. C.; Yeck, W. L.

2017-12-01

On April 16, 2016, a Mw7.8 earthquake, associated with oblique subduction of the Nazca Plate under South America, ruptured a segment approximately 130x100km in the region north of the intersection of the Carnegie ridge with the Ecuador subduction zone. The rupture coincides with the rupture area of the Mw7.8 1942 earthquake. To characterize the aftershock sequence, we analyze seismic data recorded by 30 stations from April 17, 2016 to May 8, 2017; 11 stations belong to Ecuador's national network and 19 are part of a PASSCAL temporary deployment. We apply a kurtosis detector to obtain automatic P- and S-wave picks. Earthquake locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors are obtained using the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) processing system. We also determine calibrated relocations using the Hypocentroidal Decomposition approach for a subset of events for which we combine phase readings from local and temporary PASSCAL stations with regional and teleseismic phase readings from the NEIC. In contrast with other earthquake relocation approaches, this method evaluates absolute location uncertainties for each event in the cluster, which allows us to more confidently assess the relationships between mainshock slip and aftershock activity. We find the aftershock sequence is characterized by a series of event clusters that predominantly surround the main rupture patches. However, the aftershocks extend beyond the mainshock rupture area, covering a region approximately 250x100km. Aftershocks north of the 2016 rupture fall in the rupture area of the Mw7.7 1958 earthquake. The southernmost region of elevated seismicity occurs south of a region of low coupling where the Carnegie ridge meets the subduction zone. The characterization of this sequence allows a detailed spatial and temporal analysis of the rupture processes, stress patterns and slip behavior during this earthquake sequence in Ecuador subduction zone.

Aftershock decay, productivity, and stress rates in Hawaii: Indicators of temperature and stress from magma sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, Fred W.; Wright, Tom; Nakata, Jennifer

2006-01-01

We examined dozens of aftershock sequences in Hawaii in terms of Gutenberg-Richter and modified Omori law parameters. We studied p, the rate of aftershock decay; Ap, the aftershock productivity, defined as the observed divided by the expected number of aftershocks; and c, the time delay when aftershock rates begin to fall. We found that for earthquakes shallower than 20 km, p values >1.2 are near active magma centers. We associate this high decay rate with higher temperatures and faster stress relaxation near magma reservoirs. Deep earthquakes near Kilauea's inferred magma transport path show a range of p values, suggesting the absence of a large, deep magma reservoir. Aftershock productivity is >4.0 for flank earthquakes known to be triggered by intrusions but is normal (0.25 to 4.0) for isolated main shocks. We infer that continuing, post-main shock stress from the intrusion adds to the main shock's stress step and causes higher Ap. High Ap in other zones suggests less obvious intrusions and pulsing magma pressure near Kilauea's feeding conduit. We calculate stress rates and stress rate changes from pre-main shock and aftershock rates. Stress rate increased after many intrusions but decreased after large M7–8 earthquakes. Stress rates are highest in the seismically active volcano flanks and lowest in areas far from volcanic centers. We found sequences triggered by intrusions tend to have high Ap, high (>0.10 day) c values, a stress rate increase, and sometimes a peak in aftershock rate hours after the main shock. We interpret these values as indicating continuing intrusive stress after the main shock.

Fault structure in the Nepal Himalaya as illuminated by aftershocks of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake recorded by the local NAMASTE network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, A.; Mendoza, M.; LI, B.; Karplus, M. S.; Nabelek, J.; Sapkota, S. N.; Adhikari, L. B.; Klemperer, S. L.; Velasco, A. A.

2017-12-01

Geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), that accommodates majority of the plate motion between Indian and Eurasian plate, is being debated for a long time. Different models have been proposed; some of them are significantly different from others. Obtaining a well constrained geometry of the MHT is challenging mainly because of the lack of high quality data, inherent low resolution and non-uniqueness of the models. We used a dense local seismic network - NAMASTE - to record and analyze a prolific aftershock sequence following the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, and determine geometry of the MHT constrained by precisely located well-constrained aftershocks. We detected and located more than 15,000 aftershocks of the Gorkha earthquake using Hypoinverse and then relatively relocated using HypoDD algorithm. We selected about 7,000 earthquakes that are particularly well constrained to analyze the geometry of the megathrust. They illuminate fault structure in this part of the Himalaya with unprecedented detail. The MHT shows two subhorizontal planes connected by a duplex structure. The duplex structure is characterized by multiple steeply dipping planes. In addition, we used four large-aperture continental-scale seismic arrays at teleseismic distances to backproject high-frequency seismic radiation. Moreover, we combined all arrays to significantly increase the resolution and detectability. We imaged rupture propagation of the mainshock showing complexity near the end of the rupture that might help arresting of the rupture to the east. Furthermore, we continuously scanned teleseismic data for two weeks starting from immediately after the mainshock to detect and locate aftershock activity only using the arrays. Spatial pattern of the aftershocks was similar to the existing global catalog using conventional seismic network and technique. However, we detected more than twice as many aftershocks using the array technique compared to the global catalog including many aftershocks that were undetected by the global network. This method might provide new tool to rapidly detect aftershock activity immediately after a large damaging earthquake to guide fast and more effective disaster response.

Dynamic Aftershock Triggering Correlated with Cyclic Loading in the Slip Direction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardebeck, J.

2014-12-01

Dynamic stress changes have been shown to contribute to aftershock triggering, but the physical triggering mechanisms are not fully understood. Some proposed mechanisms are based on dynamic stress loading of the target fault in a direction that encourages earthquake slip (e.g. dynamic Coulomb stress triggering), while other mechanisms are based on fault weakening due to shaking. If dynamic stress loading in the fault slip direction plays a role in aftershock triggering, we would expect to see a relationship between the dynamic stress orientations and the aftershock focal mechanisms. Alternatively, if dynamic stress change triggering functions only through a fault weakening mechanism that is independent of the slip direction of the target fault, no such relationship is expected. I study aftershock sequences of 4 M≥6.7 mainshocks in southern California, and find a small but significant relationship between modeled dynamic stress direction and aftershock focal mechanisms. The mainshock dynamic stress changes have two observed impacts: changing the focal mechanisms in a given location to favor those aligned with the dynamic stress change, and changing the spatial distribution of seismicity to favor locations where the dynamic stress change aligns with the background stress. The aftershock focal mechanisms are significantly more aligned with the dynamic stress changes than the preshock mechanisms for only the first 0.5-1 year following most mainshocks, although for at least 10 years following Hector Mine. Dynamic stress effects on focal mechanisms are best observed at long periods (30-60 sec). Dynamic stress effects are only observed when using metrics based on repeated stress cycling in the same direction, for example considering the dominant stress orientation over the full time series, and not for the peak dynamic stress. These results imply that dynamic aftershock triggering operates at least in part through cyclic loading in the direction of fault slip, although non-directional fault weakening may be important as well. This suggests that the orientation of the dynamic stresses, as well as their amplitude, should be considered in the development of physics-based aftershock forecasting models.

An Improved Source-Scanning Algorithm for Locating Earthquake Clusters or Aftershock Sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Y.; Kao, H.; Hsu, S.

2010-12-01

The Source-scanning Algorithm (SSA) was originally introduced in 2004 to locate non-volcanic tremors. Its application was later expanded to the identification of earthquake rupture planes and the near-real-time detection and monitoring of landslides and mud/debris flows. In this study, we further improve SSA for the purpose of locating earthquake clusters or aftershock sequences when only a limited number of waveform observations are available. The main improvements include the application of a ground motion analyzer to separate P and S waves, the automatic determination of resolution based on the grid size and time step of the scanning process, and a modified brightness function to utilize constraints from multiple phases. Specifically, the improved SSA (named as ISSA) addresses two major issues related to locating earthquake clusters/aftershocks. The first one is the massive amount of both time and labour to locate a large number of seismic events manually. And the second one is to efficiently and correctly identify the same phase across the entire recording array when multiple events occur closely in time and space. To test the robustness of ISSA, we generate synthetic waveforms consisting of 3 separated events such that individual P and S phases arrive at different stations in different order, thus making correct phase picking nearly impossible. Using these very complicated waveforms as the input, the ISSA scans all model space for possible combination of time and location for the existence of seismic sources. The scanning results successfully associate various phases from each event at all stations, and correctly recover the input. To further demonstrate the advantage of ISSA, we apply it to the waveform data collected by a temporary OBS array for the aftershock sequence of an offshore earthquake southwest of Taiwan. The overall signal-to-noise ratio is inadequate for locating small events; and the precise arrival times of P and S phases are difficult to determine. We use one of the largest aftershocks that can be located by conventional methods as our reference event to calibrate the controlling parameters of ISSA. These parameters include the overall Vp/Vs ratio (because a precise S velocity model was unavailable), the length of scanning time window, and the weighting factor for each station. Our results show that ISSA is not only more efficient in locating earthquake clusters/aftershocks, but also capable of identifying many events missed by conventional phase-picking methods.

Imaging 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake and Its Aftershock Sequence Combining Multiple Calibrated Global Seismic Arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LI, B.; Ghosh, A.

2016-12-01

The 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake provides a good opportunity to study the tectonics and earthquake hazards in the Himalayas, one of the most seismically active plate boundaries. Details of the seismicity patterns and associated structures in the Himalayas are poorly understood mainly due to limited instrumentation. Here, we apply a back-projection method to study the mainshock rupture and the following aftershock sequence using four large aperture global seismic arrays. All the arrays show eastward rupture propagation of about 130 km and reveal similar evolution of seismic energy radiation, with strong high-frequency energy burst about 50 km north of Kathmandu. Each single array, however, is typically limited by large azimuthal gap, low resolution, and artifacts due to unmodeled velocity structures. Therefore, we use a self-consistent empirical calibration method to combine four different arrays to image the Gorkha event. It greatly improves the resolution, can better track rupture and reveal details that cannot be resolved by any individual array. In addition, we also use the same arrays at teleseismic distances and apply a back-projection technique to detect and locate the aftershocks immediately following the Gorkha earthquake. We detect about 2.5 times the aftershocks recorded by the Advance National Seismic System comprehensive earthquake catalog during the 19 days following the mainshock. The aftershocks detected by the arrays show an east-west trend in general, with majority of the aftershocks located at the eastern part of the rupture patch and surrounding the rupture zone of the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock. Overall spatiotemporal aftershock pattern agrees well with global catalog, with our catalog showing more details relative to the standard global catalog. The improved aftershock catalog enables us to better study the aftershock dynamics, stress evolution in this region. Moreover, rapid and better imaging of aftershock distribution may aid rapid response and hazard assessment after destructive large earthquakes. Existing multiple global seismic arrays, when properly calibrated and used in combinations, provide a high resolution image of rupture of large earthquakes and spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks.

Statistical discrimination of induced and tectonic earthquake sequences in Central and Eastern US based on waveform detected catalogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, X.; Daniels, C.; Smith, E.; Peng, Z.; Chen, X.; Wagner, L. S.; Fischer, K. M.; Hawman, R. B.

2015-12-01

Since 2001, the number of M>3 earthquakes increased significantly in Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), likely due to waste-water injection, also known as "induced earthquakes" [Ellsworth, 2013]. Because induced earthquakes are driven by short-term external forcing and hence may behave like earthquake swarms, which are not well characterized by branching point-process models, such as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model [Ogata, 1988]. In this study we focus on the 02/15/2014 M4.1 South Carolina and the 06/16/2014 M4.3 Oklahoma earthquakes, which likely represent intraplate tectonic and induced events, respectively. For the South Carolina event, only one M3.0 aftershock is identified by the ANSS catalog, which may be caused by a lack of low-magnitude events in this catalog. We apply a recently developed matched filter technique to detect earthquakes from 02/08/2014 to 02/22/2014 around the epicentral region. 15 seismic stations (both permanent and temporary USArray networks) within 100 km of the mainshock are used for detection. The mainshock and aftershock are used as templates for the initial detection. Newly detected events are employed as new templates, and the same detection procedure repeats until no new event can be added. Overall we have identified more than 10 events, including one foreshock occurred ~11 min before the M4.1 mainshock. However, the numbers of aftershocks are still much less than predicted with the modified Bath's law. For the Oklahoma event, we use 1270 events from the ANSS catalog and 182 events from a relocated catalog as templates to scan through continuous recordings 3 days before to 7 days after the mainshock. 12 seismic stations within the vicinity of the mainshock are included in the study. After obtaining more complete catalogs for both sequences, we plan to compare the statistical parameters (e.g., b, a, K, and p values) between the two sequences, as well as their spatial-temporal migration pattern, which may shed light on the underlying physics of tectonic and induced earthquakes.

The 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake sequence: I. Source modeling and deterministic 3D ground shaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Shengji; Chen, Meng; Wang, Xin; Graves, Robert; Lindsey, Eric; Wang, Teng; Karakaş, Çağıl; Helmberger, Don

2018-01-01

To better quantify the relatively long period (< 0.3 Hz) shaking experienced during the 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake sequence, we study the finite rupture processes and the associated 3D ground motion of the Mw7.8 mainshock and the Mw7.2 aftershock. The 3D synthetics are then used in the broadband ground shaking in Kathmandu with a hybrid approach, summarized in a companion paper (Chen and Wei, 2017, submitted together). We determined the coseismic rupture process of the mainshock by joint inversion of InSAR/SAR, GPS (static and high-rate), strong motion and teleseismic waveforms. Our inversion for the mainshock indicates unilateral rupture towards the ESE, with an average rupture speed of 3.0 km/s and a total duration of 60 s. Additionally, we find that the beginning part of the rupture (5-18 s) has about 40% longer rise time than the rest of the rupture, as well as slower rupture velocity. Our model shows two strong asperities occurring 24 s and 36 s after the origin and located 30 km to the northwest and northeast of the Kathmandu valley, respectively. In contrast, the Mw7.2 aftershock is more compact both in time and space, as revealed by joint inversion of teleseismic body waves and InSAR data. The different rupture features between the mainshock and the aftershock could be related to difference in fault zone structure. The mainshock and aftershock ground motions in the Kathmandu valley, recorded by both strong motion and high-rate GPS stations, exhibited strong amplification around 0.2 Hz. A simplified 3D basin model, calibrated by an Mw5.2 aftershock, can match the observed waveforms reasonably well at 0.3 Hz and lower frequency. The 3D simulations indicate that the basin structure trapped the wavefield and produced an extensive ground vibration. Our study suggests that the combination of rupture characteristics and propagational complexity are required to understand the ground shaking produced by hazardous earthquakes such as the Gorkha event.

Rifting mechanisms constrained by InSAR, seismicity, GPS, and surface rupture from the Karonga earthquake sequence in northern Lake Malawi (Nyasa)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, W.; Pritchard, M. E.; Henderson, S. T.; Gaherty, J. B.; Shillington, D. J.; Oliva, S. J.; Ebinger, C.; Nooner, S. L.; Elliott, J.; Saria, E.; Ntambila, D.; Chindandali, P. R. N.

2017-12-01

The Malawi rift is part of the archetypal East African rift where early-stage crustal extension is dominated by faulting. In the Karonga region of northern Malawi, a sequence of earthquakes in late 2009, with 15 teleseismically detected (Mw 4.5-6.0) over 13 days, provides a uniqueopportunity to evaluate faulting processes controlling present-day extension in an early-stage rift. We describe observations of this sequence including hundreds of aftershocks located by a temporary seismic array installed in 2010, ground deformation from satellite interferograms, and surface rupture from field surveys published by others. We use all of these data to model fault geometry and slip. The aftershocks from January-May 2010 suggest the involvement of multiple faults, and we test the extent that this can be resolved by the InSAR data. The InSAR and surface rupture both suggest that the major slip occurred at shallow depth (<5 km). Our preferred aftershock locations appear to correlate with this principal slip zone, although uncertainty in the shallow velocity structure can allow for a bulk of the events to fall down-dip of the geodetically constrained slip. Subsequent deformation, including that associated with a December 2014 Mw 5.1 earthquake, can be constrained from multidisciplinary data collected during the SEGMeNT (Study of Extension and maGmatism in Malawi aNd Tanzania) project, which includes the Karonga region and spans 2013-2015. We find 3 cm of potential ground movement at the location of the earthquake as determined by the SEGMeNT seismic array from Sentinel-1. Geodetic fault slip is consistent with the focal mechanism and depth determined by the local array. The location is at the northern end of the 2009-2010 aftershock zone, and aftershocks suggest some linkage with faults that slipped in 2009. InSAR observations do not provide any evidence for large aseismic slip or fluid movements during or after the 2014 sequence, which had <200 aftershocks above the network threshold. For example, we do not observe any deformation at Rungwe volcano above the 2 cm/yr detection threshold with InSAR time series from ALOS (2007-2010) or Sentinel-1 (10/2014 - 04/2017). The time series from SEGMeNT and other continuous GPS stations do not show transients related to the earthquakes, but are not optimally located in space or time.

2010 Chile Earthquake Aftershock Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barientos, Sergio

2010-05-01

The Mw=8.8 earthquake off the coast of Chile on 27 February 2010 is the 5th largest megathrust earthquake ever to be recorded and provides an unprecedented opportunity to advance our understanding of megathrust earthquakes and associated phenomena. The 2010 Chile earthquake ruptured the Concepcion-Constitucion segment of the Nazca/South America plate boundary, south of the Central Chile region and triggered a tsunami along the coast. Following the 2010 earthquake, a very energetic aftershock sequence is being observed in an area that is 600 km along strike from Valparaiso to 150 km south of Concepcion. Within the first three weeks there were over 260 aftershocks with magnitude 5.0 or greater and 18 with magnitude 6.0 or greater (NEIC, USGS). The Concepcion-Constitucion segment lies immediately north of the rupture zone associated with the great magnitude 9.5 Chile earthquake, and south of the 1906 and the 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes. The last great subduction earthquake in the region dates back to the February 1835 event described by Darwin (1871). Since 1835, part of the region was affected in the north by the Talca earthquake in December 1928, interpreted as a shallow dipping thrust event, and by the Chillan earthquake (Mw 7.9, January 1939), a slab-pull intermediate depth earthquake. For the last 30 years, geodetic studies in this area were consistent with a fully coupled elastic loading of the subduction interface at depth; this led to identify the area as a mature seismic gap with potential for an earthquake of magnitude of the order 8.5 or several earthquakes of lesser magnitude. What was less expected was the partial rupturing of the 1985 segment toward north. Today, the 2010 earthquake raises some disturbing questions: Why and how the rupture terminated where it did at the northern end? How did the 2010 earthquake load the adjacent segment to the north and did the 1985 earthquake only partially ruptured the plate interface leaving loaded asperities since 1906? Since the number of M>7.0 aftershocks has been low, does the distribution of large-magnitude aftershocks differ from previous events of this size? What is the origin of the extensional-type aftershocks at shallow depths within the upper plate? The international seismological community (France, Germany, U.K., U.S.A.) in collaboration with the Chilean seismological community responded with a total of 140 portable seismic stations to deploy in order to record aftershocks. This combined with the Chilean permanent seismic network, in the area results in 180 stations now in operation recording continuous at 100 cps. The seismic equipment is a mix of accelerometers, short -period and broadband seismic sensors deployed along the entire length of the aftershock zone that will record the aftershock sequence for three to six months. The collected seismic data will be merged and archived to produce an international data set open to the entire seismological community immediately after archiving. Each international group will submit their data as soon as possible in standard (mini seed) format with accompanying meta data to the IRIS DMC where the data will be merged into a combined data set and available to individuals and other data centers. This will be by far the best-recorded aftershock sequence of a large megathrust earthquake. This outstanding international collaboration will provide an open data set for this important earthquake as well as provide a model for future aftershock deployments around the world.

Computational Software to Fit Seismic Data Using Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Models and Modeling Performance Comparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, A.

2016-12-01

Modern earthquake catalogs are often analyzed using spatial-temporal point process models such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). My work implements three of the homogeneous ETAS models described in Ogata (1998). With a model's log-likelihood function, my software finds the Maximum-Likelihood Estimates (MLEs) of the model's parameters to estimate the homogeneous background rate and the temporal and spatial parameters that govern triggering effects. EM-algorithm is employed for its advantages of stability and robustness (Veen and Schoenberg, 2008). My work also presents comparisons among the three models in robustness, convergence speed, and implementations from theory to computing practice. Up-to-date regional seismic data of seismic active areas such as Southern California and Japan are used to demonstrate the comparisons. Data analysis has been done using computer languages Java and R. Java has the advantages of being strong-typed and easiness of controlling memory resources, while R has the advantages of having numerous available functions in statistical computing. Comparisons are also made between the two programming languages in convergence and stability, computational speed, and easiness of implementation. Issues that may affect convergence such as spatial shapes are discussed.

The 2008 Mw 7.2 North Pagai earthquake sequence: Partial rupture of a fully locked Mentawai patch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, R.; Hill, E.; Feng, L.; Wei, S.; Barbot, S.; Lindsey, E.; WANG, X.; Chen, W.; Bannerjee, P.; Hermawan, I.; Natawidjaja, D. H.

2016-12-01

The Mentawai patch is a seismic gap along the Sumatra subduction zone that has not ruptured completely over the last decade. This is worrying because coral colonies of the Mentawai islands show that over the last 700 years the Mentawai patch ruptured in a sequence of great earthquake (Mw > 8.5) about every two centuries. In September 2007, the Mw 8.4 Bengkulu earthquake ruptured the southern section of the Mentawai patch. The event was then followed by two Mw >= 7 aftershocks. Five months later, the 2008 Mw 7.2 earthquake ruptured a small asperity a little further north. The event ruptured a small area in the middle portion of the Mentawai patch, where the megathrust had been estimated as highly coupled. The mainshock was preceded by a foreshock of Mw 6.5 one day before and two M 6 aftershocks that occurred on the same day as the mainshock event. However, the whole earthquake sequence ruptured only a confined area on the megathrust and failed to wake up the sleeping giant. We have yet to explain why the 2008 event did not break more asperities and develop into one gargantuan earthquake. In this study, we use geodetic and seismic data to investigate the 2008 earthquake, its following afterslip, and its fore- and after-shocks. First, we jointly invert static and high-rate cGPS, InSAR and teleseismic data in a joint inversion for a co-seismic slip distribution of the mainshock. Second, we invert teleseismic data alone to develop slip models for the foreshock, mainshock and aftershock events. Third, we use the Cut-And-Paste (CAP) technique to estimate a more accurate depths for the 2008 earthquake sequence. Finally, we use six years of cGPS data, from 2008 to 2013, to develop a model for afterslip. Our preliminary results show 2 meters of peak coseismic slip for the mainshock. In addition, 1 meter of peak afterslip overlap with the coseismic slip model. The total estimated slip is far smaller than expected from the accumulated strain that has been stored in the Mentawai patch since the last earthquake in 1833. Thus, the likelihood that the Mentawai patch will generate another great earthquake in the near future remains high. But the possibility of releasing the accumulated strain piecemeal in smaller earthquakes cannot be ruled out.

Quantifying the Earthquake Clustering that Independent Sources with Stationary Rates (as Included in Current Risk Models) Can Produce.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitzenz, D. D.; Nyst, M.; Apel, E. V.; Muir-Wood, R.

2014-12-01

The recent Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES) renewed public and academic awareness concerning the clustered nature of seismicity. Multiple event occurrence in short time and space intervals is reminiscent of aftershock sequences, but aftershock is a statistical definition, not a label one can give an earthquake in real-time. Aftershocks are defined collectively as what creates the Omori event rate decay after a large event or are defined as what is taken away as "dependent events" using a declustering method. It is noteworthy that depending on the declustering method used on the Canterbury earthquake sequence, the number of independent events varies a lot. This lack of unambiguous definition of aftershocks leads to the need to investigate the amount of clustering inherent in "declustered" risk models. This is the task we concentrate on in this contribution. We start from a background source model for the Canterbury region, in which 1) centroids of events of given magnitude are distributed using a latin-hypercube lattice, 2) following the range of preferential orientations determined from stress maps and focal mechanism, 3) with length determined using the local scaling relationship and 4) rates from a and b values derived from the declustered pre-2010 catalog. We then proceed to create tens of thousands of realizations of 6 to 20 year periods, and we define criteria to identify which successions of events in the region would be perceived as a sequence. Note that the spatial clustering expected is a lower end compared to a fully uniform distribution of events. Then we perform the same exercise with rates and b-values determined from the catalog including the CES. If the pre-2010 catalog was long (or rich) enough, then the computed "stationary" rates calculated from it would include the CES declustered events (by construction, regardless of the physical meaning of or relationship between those events). In regions of low seismicity rate (e.g., Canterbury before 2010), it is hard to know how long is long enough. Using simulations, we can look at the apparent activity rate for the region over a few years (for example for events above M5.8), see how often it exceeds some level and also long those high activity rate periods last on average.

Optimal Scaling of Aftershock Zones using Ground Motion Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, John Max; Yoder, Mark R.; Rundle, John B.

2018-02-01

The spatial distribution of aftershocks following major earthquakes has received significant attention due to the shaking hazard these events pose for structures and populations in the affected region. Forecasting the spatial distribution of aftershock events is an important part of the estimation of future seismic hazard. A simple spatial shape for the zone of activity has often been assumed in the form of an ellipse having semimajor axis to semiminor axis ratio of 2.0. However, since an important application of these calculations is the estimation of ground shaking hazard, an effective criterion for forecasting future aftershock impacts is to use ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in addition to the more usual approach of using epicentral or hypocentral locations. Based on these ideas, we present an aftershock model that uses self-similarity and scaling relations to constrain parameters as an option for such hazard assessment. We fit the spatial aspect ratio to previous earthquake sequences in the studied regions, and demonstrate the effect of the fitting on the likelihood of post-disaster ground motion forecasts for eighteen recent large earthquakes. We find that the forecasts in most geographic regions studied benefit from this optimization technique, while some are better suited to the use of the a priori aspect ratio.

Afterslip Enhanced Aftershock Activity During the 2017 Earthquake Sequence Near Sulphur Peak, Idaho

DOE PAGES

Koper, Keith D.; Pankow, Kristine L.; Pechmann, James C.; ...

2018-05-29

An energetic earthquake sequence occurred during September to October 2017 near Sulphur Peak, Idaho. The normal–faulting M w 5.3 mainshock of 2 September 2017 was widely felt in Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Over 1,000 aftershocks were located within the first 2 months, 29 of which had magnitudes ≥4.0 M L. High–accuracy locations derived with data from a temporary seismic array show that the sequence occurred in the upper (<10 km) crust of the Aspen Range, east of the northern section of the range–bounding, west–dipping East Bear Lake Fault. Moment tensors for 77 of the largest events show normal and strike–slipmore » faulting with a summed aftershock moment that is 1.8–2.4 times larger than the mainshock moment. Here, we propose that the unusually high productivity of the 2017 Sulphur Peak sequence can be explained by aseismic afterslip, which triggered a secondary swarm south of the coseismic rupture zone beginning ~1 day after the mainshock.« less

Afterslip Enhanced Aftershock Activity During the 2017 Earthquake Sequence Near Sulphur Peak, Idaho

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koper, Keith D.; Pankow, Kristine L.; Pechmann, James C.

An energetic earthquake sequence occurred during September to October 2017 near Sulphur Peak, Idaho. The normal–faulting M w 5.3 mainshock of 2 September 2017 was widely felt in Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Over 1,000 aftershocks were located within the first 2 months, 29 of which had magnitudes ≥4.0 M L. High–accuracy locations derived with data from a temporary seismic array show that the sequence occurred in the upper (<10 km) crust of the Aspen Range, east of the northern section of the range–bounding, west–dipping East Bear Lake Fault. Moment tensors for 77 of the largest events show normal and strike–slipmore » faulting with a summed aftershock moment that is 1.8–2.4 times larger than the mainshock moment. Here, we propose that the unusually high productivity of the 2017 Sulphur Peak sequence can be explained by aseismic afterslip, which triggered a secondary swarm south of the coseismic rupture zone beginning ~1 day after the mainshock.« less

The 2008 Wells, Nevada Earthquake Sequence: Application of Subspace Detection and Multiple Event Relocation Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nealy, J. L.; Benz, H.; Hayes, G. P.; Bergman, E.; Barnhart, W. D.

2016-12-01

On February 21, 2008 at 14:16:02 (UTC), Wells, Nevada experienced a Mw 6.0 earthquake, the largest earthquake in the state within the past 50 years. Here, we re-analyze in detail the spatiotemporal variations of the foreshock and aftershock sequence and compare the distribution of seismicity to a recent slip model based on inversion of InSAR observations. A catalog of earthquakes for the time period of February 1, 2008 through August 31, 2008 was derived from a combination of arrival time picks using a kurtosis detector (primarily P arrival times), subspace detector (primarily S arrival times), associating the combined pick dataset, and applying multiple event relocation techniques using the 19 closest USArray Transportable Array stations, permanent regional seismic monitoring stations in Nevada and Utah, and temporary stations deployed for an aftershock study. We were able to detect several thousand earthquakes in the months following the mainshock as well as several foreshocks in the days leading up to the event. We reviewed the picks for the largest 986 earthquakes and relocated them using the Hypocentroidal Decomposition (HD) method. The HD technique provides both relative locations for the individual earthquakes and an absolute location for the earthquake cluster, resulting in absolute locations of the events in the cluster having minimal bias from unknown Earth structure. A subset of these "calibrated" earthquake locations that spanned the duration of the sequence and had small uncertainties in location were used as prior constraints within a second relocation effort using the entire dataset and the Bayesloc approach. Accurate locations (to within 2 km) were obtained using Bayesloc for 1,952 of the 2,157 events associated over the seven-month period of the study. The final catalog of earthquake hypocenters indicates that the aftershocks extend for about 20 km along the strike of the ruptured fault. The aftershocks occur primarily updip and along the southwestern edge of the zone of maximum slip as modeled by seismic waveform inversion (Dreger et al., 2011) and by InSAR. The aftershock locations illuminate areas of post-mainshock strain increase and their depths are consistent with InSAR imaging, which showed that the Wells earthquake was a buried source with no observable near-surface offset.

Stress history controls the spatial pattern of aftershocks: case studies from strike-slip earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utkucu, Murat; Durmuş, Hatice; Nalbant, Süleyman

2017-09-01

Earthquake ruptures perturb stress within the surrounding crustal volume and as it is widely accepted now these stress perturbations strongly correlates with the following seismicity. Here we have documented five cases of the mainshock-aftershock sequences generated by the strike-slip faults from different tectonic environments of world in order to demonstrate that the stress changes resulting from large preceding earthquakes decades before effect spatial distribution of the aftershocks of the current mainshocks. The studied mainshock-aftershock sequences are the 15 October 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake ( Mw = 6.4) in southern California, the 27 November 1979 Khuli-Boniabad ( Mw = 7.1), the 10 May 1997 Qa'enat ( Mw = 7.2) and the 31 March 2006 Silakhor ( Mw = 6.1) earthquakes in Iran and the 13 March 1992 Erzincan earthquake ( Mw = 6.7) in Turkey. In the literature, we have been able to find only these mainshocks that are mainly characterized by dense and strong aftershock activities along and beyond the one end of their ruptures while rare aftershock occurrences with relatively lower magnitude reported for the other end of their ruptures. It is shown that the stress changes resulted from earlier mainshock(s) that are close in both time and space might be the reason behind the observed aftershock patterns. The largest aftershocks of the mainshocks studied tend to occur inside the stress-increased lobes that were also stressed by the background earthquakes and not to occur inside the stress-increased lobes that fall into the stress shadow of the background earthquakes. We suggest that the stress shadows of the previous mainshocks may persist in the crust for decades to suppress aftershock distribution of the current mainshocks. Considering active researches about use of the Coulomb stress change maps as a practical tool to forecast spatial distribution of the upcoming aftershocks for earthquake risk mitigation purposes in near-real time, it is further suggested that the background mainshocks along the neighbouring faults should be taken into account in producing the stress change maps for commenting on aftershock occurrences.

A study on off-fault aftershock pattern at N-Adria microplate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bressan, Gianni; Barnaba, Carla; Magrin, Andrea; Rossi, Giuliana

2018-03-01

The spatial features of the aftershock sequences triggered by three moderate magnitude events with coda-duration magnitudes 4.1, 5.1 and 5.6, which occurred in Northeastern Italy and Western Slovenia, were investigated. The fractal dimension and the orientations of the planar features fitting the hypocentral data have been inferred. The spatial organization is articulated through two temporal phases. The first phase is characterized by the decreasing of the fractal dimension and by vertically oriented planes fitting the hypocentral foci. The second phase is marked by an increase of the fractal dimension and by the activation of different planes, with more widespread orientation. The aftershock temporal distribution is analysed with a model based on a static fatigue process. The process is favoured by the decrease of the overburden pressure, the sharp variations of the mechanical properties of the medium and the unclamping effect resulting from positive normal stress changes caused by the mainshock stress step.

Seismic tomography of the area of the 2010 Beni-Ilmane earthquake sequence, north-central Algeria.

PubMed

Abacha, Issam; Koulakov, Ivan; Semmane, Fethi; Yelles-Chaouche, Abd Karim

2014-01-01

The region of Beni-Ilmane (District of M'sila, north-central Algeria) was the site of an earthquake sequence that started on 14 May 2010. This sequence, which lasted several months, was triggered by conjugate E-W reverse and N-S dextral faulting. To image the crustal structure of these active faults, we used a set of 1406 well located aftershocks events and applied the local tomography software (LOTOS) algorithm, which includes absolute source location, optimization of the initial 1D velocity model, and iterative tomographic inversion for 3D seismic P- and S-wave velocities (and the Vp/Vs ratio), and source parameters. The patterns of P-wave low-velocity anomalies correspond to the alignments of faults determined from geological evidence, and the P-wave high-velocity anomalies may represent rigid blocks of the upper crust that are not deformed by regional stresses. The S-wave low-velocity anomalies coincide with the aftershock area, where relatively high values of Vp/Vs ratio (1.78) are observed compared with values in the surrounding areas (1.62-1.66). These high values may indicate high fluid contents in the aftershock area. These fluids could have been released from deeper levels by fault movements during earthquakes and migrated rapidly upwards. This hypothesis is supported by vertical sections across the study area show that the major Vp/Vs anomalies are located above the seismicity clusters.

Strain rates, stress markers and earthquake clustering (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fry, B.; Gerstenberger, M.; Abercrombie, R. E.; Reyners, M.; Eberhart-Phillips, D. M.

2013-12-01

The 2010-present Canterbury earthquakes comprise a well-recorded sequence in a relatively low strain-rate shallow crustal region. We present new scientific results to test the hypothesis that: Earthquake sequences in low-strain rate areas experience high stress drop events, low-post seismic relaxation, and accentuated seismic clustering. This hypothesis is based on a physical description of the aftershock process in which the spatial distribution of stress accumulation and stress transfer are controlled by fault strength and orientation. Following large crustal earthquakes, time dependent forecasts are often developed by fitting parameters defined by Omori's aftershock decay law. In high-strain rate areas, simple forecast models utilizing a single p-value fit observed aftershock sequences well. In low-strain rate areas such as Canterbury, assumptions of simple Omori decay may not be sufficient to capture the clustering (sub-sequence) nature exhibited by the punctuated rise in activity following significant child events. In Canterbury, the moment release is more clustered than in more typical Omori sequences. The individual earthquakes in these clusters also exhibit somewhat higher stress drops than in the average crustal sequence in high-strain rate regions, suggesting the earthquakes occur on strong Andersonian-oriented faults, possibly juvenile or well-healed . We use the spectral ratio procedure outlined in (Viegas et al., 2010) to determine corner frequencies and Madariaga stress-drop values for over 800 events in the sequence. Furthermore, we will discuss the relevance of tomographic results of Reyners and Eberhart-Phillips (2013) documenting post-seismic stress-driven fluid processes following the three largest events in the sequence as well as anisotropic patterns in surface wave tomography (Fry et al., 2013). These tomographic studies are both compatible with the hypothesis, providing strong evidence for the presence of widespread and hydrated regional upper crustal cracking parallel to sub-parallel to the dominant transverse failure plane in the sequence. Joint interpretation of the three separate datasets provide a positive first attempt at testing our fundamental hypothesis.

Spatio-temporal analysis of aftershock sequences in terms of Non Extensive Statistical Physics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chochlaki, Kalliopi; Vallianatos, Filippos

2017-04-01

Earth's seismicity is considered as an extremely complicated process where long-range interactions and fracturing exist (Vallianatos et al., 2016). For this reason, in order to analyze it, we use an innovative methodological approach, introduced by Tsallis (Tsallis, 1988; 2009), named Non Extensive Statistical Physics. This approach introduce a generalization of the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical mechanics and it is based on the definition of Tsallis entropy Sq, which maximized leads the the so-called q-exponential function that expresses the probability distribution function that maximizes the Sq. In the present work, we utilize the concept of Non Extensive Statistical Physics in order to analyze the spatiotemporal properties of several aftershock series. Marekova (Marekova, 2014) suggested that the probability densities of the inter-event distances between successive aftershocks follow a beta distribution. Using the same data set we analyze the inter-event distance distribution of several aftershocks sequences in different geographic regions by calculating non extensive parameters that determine the behavior of the system and by fitting the q-exponential function, which expresses the degree of non-extentivity of the investigated system. Furthermore, the inter-event times distribution of the aftershocks as well as the frequency-magnitude distribution has been analyzed. The results supports the applicability of Non Extensive Statistical Physics ideas in aftershock sequences where a strong correlation exists along with memory effects. References C. Tsallis, Possible generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics, J. Stat. Phys. 52 (1988) 479-487. doi:10.1007/BF01016429 C. Tsallis, Introduction to nonextensive statistical mechanics: Approaching a complex world, 2009. doi:10.1007/978-0-387-85359-8. E. Marekova, Analysis of the spatial distribution between successive earthquakes in aftershocks series, Annals of Geophysics, 57, 5, doi:10.4401/ag-6556, 2014 F. Vallianatos, G. Papadakis, G. Michas, Generalized statistical mechanics approaches to earthquakes and tectonics. Proc. R. Soc. A, 472, 20160497, 2016.

Adapting Pipeline Architectures to Track Developing Aftershock Sequences and Recurrent Explosions

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-14

Sumatra earthquake was used to study the performance of subspace detectors to detect and classify events from within a very large (Area = ~250,000 km2... detectors to identify and organize repeating waveforms discovered in multichannel seismic data streams. The framework has been tested and evaluated on...a variety of different test cases from mining blasts in Central Asia to moderate and large earthquake aftershock sequences. The framework performs

The 2008 Wells, Nevada earthquake sequence: Source constraints using calibrated multiple event relocation and InSAR

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nealy, Jennifer; Benz, Harley M.; Hayes, Gavin; Berman, Eric; Barnhart, William

2017-01-01

The 2008 Wells, NV earthquake represents the largest domestic event in the conterminous U.S. outside of California since the October 1983 Borah Peak earthquake in southern Idaho. We present an improved catalog, magnitude complete to 1.6, of the foreshock-aftershock sequence, supplementing the current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalog with 1,928 well-located events. In order to create this catalog, both subspace and kurtosis detectors are used to obtain an initial set of earthquakes and associated locations. The latter are then calibrated through the implementation of the hypocentroidal decomposition method and relocated using the BayesLoc relocation technique. We additionally perform a finite fault slip analysis of the mainshock using InSAR observations. By combining the relocated sequence with the finite fault analysis, we show that the aftershocks occur primarily updip and along the southwestern edge of the zone of maximum slip. The aftershock locations illuminate areas of post-mainshock strain increase; aftershock depths, ranging from 5 to 16 km, are consistent with InSAR imaging, which shows that the Wells earthquake was a buried source with no observable near-surface offset.

Using waveform cross correlation for automatic recovery of aftershock sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobrov, Dmitry; Kitov, Ivan; Rozhkov, Mikhail

2017-04-01

Aftershock sequences of the largest earthquakes are difficult to recover. There can be several hundred mid-sized aftershocks per hour within a few hundred km from each other recorded by the same stations. Moreover, these events generate thousands of reflected/refracted phases having azimuth and slowness close to those from the P-waves. Therefore, aftershock sequences with thousands of events represent a major challenge for automatic and interactive processing at the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Organization (CTBTO). Standard methods of detection and phase association do not use all information contained in signals. As a result, wrong association of the first and later phases, both regular and site specific, produces enormous number of wrong event hypotheses and destroys valid event hypotheses in automatic IDC processing. In turn, the IDC analysts have to reject false and recreate valid hypotheses wasting precious human resources. At the current level of the IDC catalogue completeness, the method of waveform cross correlation (WCC) can resolve most of detection and association problems fully utilizing the similarity of waveforms generated by aftershocks. Array seismic stations of the International monitoring system (IMS) can enhance the performance of the WCC method: reduce station-specific detection thresholds, allow accurate estimate of signal attributes, including relative magnitude, and effectively suppress irrelevant arrivals. We have developed and tested a prototype of an aftershock tool matching all IDC processing requirements and merged it with the current IDC pipeline. This tool includes creation of master events consisting of real or synthetic waveform templates at ten and more IMS stations; cross correlation (CC) of real-time waveforms with these templates, association of arrivals detected at CC-traces in event hypotheses; building events matching the IDC quality criteria; and resolution of conflicts between events hypotheses created by neighboring master-events. The final cross correlation standard event lists (XSEL) is a start point for interactive analysis with standard tools. We present select results for the biggest earthquakes, like Sumatra 2004 and Tohoku 2011, as well as for several smaller events with hundreds of aftershocks. The sensitivity and resolution of the aftershock tool is demonstrated on the example of mb=2.2 aftershock found after the September 9, 2016 DPRK test.

Modeling of the Nano- and Picoseismicity Rate Changes Resulting from Static Stress Triggering due to Small (MW2.2) Event Recorded at Mponeng Deep Gold Mine, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozlowska, M.; Orlecka-Sikora, B.; Kwiatek, G.; Boettcher, M. S.; Dresen, G. H.

2014-12-01

Static stress changes following large earthquakes are known to affect the rate and spatio-temporal distribution of the aftershocks. Here we utilize a unique dataset of M ≥ -3.4 earthquakes following a MW 2.2 earthquake in Mponeng gold mine, South Africa, to investigate this process for nano- and pico- scale seismicity at centimeter length scales in shallow, mining conditions. The aftershock sequence was recorded during a quiet interval in the mine and thus enabled us to perform the analysis using Dietrich's (1994) rate and state dependent friction law. The formulation for earthquake productivity requires estimation of Coulomb stress changes due to the mainshock, the reference seismicity rate, frictional resistance parameter, and the duration of aftershock relaxation time. We divided the area into six depth intervals and for each we estimated the parameters and modeled the spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity rates after the stress perturbation. Comparing the modeled patterns of seismicity with the observed distribution we found that while the spatial patterns match well, the rate of modeled aftershocks is lower than the observed rate. To test our model, we used four metrics of the goodness-of-fit evaluation. Testing procedure allowed rejecting the null hypothesis of no significant difference between seismicity rates only for one depth interval containing the mainshock, for the other, no significant differences have been found. Results show that mining-induced earthquakes may be followed by a stress relaxation expressed through aftershocks located on the rupture plane and in regions of positive Coulomb stress change. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the main features of the temporal and spatial distribution of very small, mining-induced earthquakes at shallow depths can be successfully determined using rate- and state-based stress modeling.

Toggling of seismicity by the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet: A demonstration of time-dependent stress transfer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toda, S.; Stein, R.

2003-01-01

Two M ??? 6 well-recorded strike-slip earthquakes struck just 4 km and 48 days apart in Kagoshima prefecture, Japan, in 1997, providing an opportunity to study earthquake interaction. Aftershocks are abundant where the Coulomb stress is calculated to have been increased by the first event, and they abruptly stop where the stress is dropped by the second event. This ability of the main shocks to toggle seismicity on and off argues that static stress changes play a major role in exciting aftershocks, whereas the dynamic Coulomb stresses, which should only promote seismicity, appear to play a secondary role. If true, the net stress changes from a sequence of earthquakes might be expected to govern the subsequent seismicity distribution. However, adding the stress changes from the two Kagoshima events does not fully capture the ensuing seismicity, such as its rate change, temporal decay, or migration away from the ends of the ruptures. We therefore implement a stress transfer model that incorporates rate/state friction, in which seismicity is treated as a sequence of independent nucleation events that are dependent on the fault slip, slip rate, and elapsed time since the last event. The model reproduces the temporal response of seismicity to successive stress changes, including toggling, decay, and aftershock migration. Nevertheless, the match of observed to predicted seismicity is quite imperfect, due perhaps to inadequate knowledge of several model parameters. However, to demonstrate the potential of this approach, we build a probabilistic forecast of larger earthquakes on the expected rate of small aftershocks, taking advantage of the large statistical sample the small shocks afford. Not surprisingly, such probabilities are highly time- and location-dependent: During the first decade after the main shocks, the seismicity rate and the chance of successive large shocks are about an order of magnitude higher than the background rate and are concentrated exclusively in the stress triggering zones. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Uion.

Anomalous stress diffusion, Omori's law and Continuous Time Random Walk in the 2010 Efpalion aftershock sequence (Corinth rift, Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michas, Georgios; Vallianatos, Filippos; Karakostas, Vassilios; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Sammonds, Peter

2014-05-01

Efpalion aftershock sequence occurred in January 2010, when an M=5.5 earthquake was followed four days later by another strong event (M=5.4) and numerous aftershocks (Karakostas et al., 2012). This activity interrupted a 15 years period of low to moderate earthquake occurrence in Corinth rift, where the last major event was the 1995 Aigion earthquake (M=6.2). Coulomb stress analysis performed in previous studies (Karakostas et al., 2012; Sokos et al., 2012; Ganas et al., 2013) indicated that the second major event and most of the aftershocks were triggered due to stress transfer. The aftershocks production rate decays as a power-law with time according to the modified Omori law (Utsu et al., 1995) with an exponent larger than one for the first four days, while after the occurrence of the second strong event the exponent turns to unity. We consider the earthquake sequence as a point process in time and space and study its spatiotemporal evolution considering a Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) model with a joint probability density function of inter-event times and jumps between the successive earthquakes (Metzler and Klafter, 2000). Jump length distribution exhibits finite variance, whereas inter-event times scale as a q-generalized gamma distribution (Michas et al., 2013) with a long power-law tail. These properties are indicative of a subdiffusive process in terms of CTRW. Additionally, the mean square displacement of aftershocks is constant with time after the occurrence of the first event, while it changes to a power-law with exponent close to 0.15 after the second major event, illustrating a slow diffusive process. During the first four days aftershocks cluster around the epicentral area of the second major event, while after that and taking as a reference the second event, the aftershock zone is migrating slowly with time to the west near the epicentral area of the first event. This process is much slower from what would be expected from normal diffusion, a result that is in accordance to earthquake triggering in global scale (Huc and Main, 2003) and aftershocks diffusion in California (Helmstetter et al., 2003). While other mechanisms may be plausible, the results indicate that anomalous stress transfer due to the occurrence of the two major events control the migration of the aftershock activity, activating different fault segments and having strong implications for the seismic hazard of the area. Acknowledgments. G. Michas wishes to acknowledge the partial financial support from the Greek State Scholarships Foundation (IKY). This work has been accomplished in the framework of the postgraduate program and co-funded through the action "Program for scholarships provision I.K.Y. through the procedure of personal evaluation for the 2011-2012 academic year" from resources of the educational program "Education and Life Learning" of the European Social Register and NSRF 2007- 2013. References Ganas, A., Chousianitis, K., Batsi, E., Kolligri, M., Agalos, A., Chouliaras, G., Makropoulos, K. (2013). The January 2010 Efpalion earthquakes (Gulf of Corinth, central Greece): Earthquake interactions and blind normal faulting. J. of Seism., 17(2), 465-484. Helmstetter, A., Ouillon, G., Sornette, D. (2003). Are aftershocks of large California earthquakes diffusing? J. of Geophys. Res. B, 108(10), 2483. Huc, M., Main, I. G. (2003). Anomalous stress diffusion in earthquake triggering: Correlation length, time dependence, and directionality. J. of Geophys. Res. B, 108(7), 2324. Karakostas, V., Karagianni, E., Paradisopoulou, P. (2012). Space-time analysis, faulting and triggering of the 2010 earthquake doublet in western Corinth gulf. Nat.Haz., 63(2), 1181-1202. Metzler, R., Klafter, J. (2000). The random walk's guide to anomalous diffusion: a fractional dynamics approach. Physics Reports, 339, 1-77. Michas, G., Vallianatos, F., Sammonds, P. (2013). Non-extensivity and long-range correlations in the earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift (Greece). Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 713-724. Sokos, E., Zahradník, J., Kiratzi, A., Janský, J., Gallovič, F., Novotny, O., Kostelecký, J., Serpetsidaki, A., Tselentis, G.-A. (2012). The January 2010 Efpalio earthquake sequence in the western Corinth gulf (Greece). Tectonophysics, 530-531, 299-309. Utsu, T., Y. Ogata, Matsu'ura R. S. (1995). The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity. J. Phys. Earth, 43, 1- 33.

Complex faulting associated with the 22 December 2003 Mw 6.5 San Simeon California, earthquake, aftershocks and postseismic surface deformation

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLaren, Marcia K.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Unruh, Jeffrey R.; Bawden, Gerald W.; Blair, James Luke

2008-01-01

We use data from two seismic networks and satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) imagery to characterize the 22 December 2003 Mw 6.5 San Simeon earthquake sequence. Absolute locations for the mainshock and nearly 10,000 aftershocks were determined using a new three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity model; relative locations were obtained using double difference. The mainshock location found using the 3D velocity model is 35.704° N, 121.096° W at a depth of 9.7±0.7 km. The aftershocks concentrate at the northwest and southeast parts of the aftershock zone, between the mapped traces of the Oceanic and Nacimiento fault zones. The northwest end of the mainshock rupture, as defined by the aftershocks, projects from the mainshock hypocenter to the surface a few kilometers west of the mapped trace of the Oceanic fault, near the Santa Lucia Range front and the >5 mm postseismic InSAR imagery contour. The Oceanic fault in this area, as mapped by Hall (1991), is therefore probably a second-order synthetic thrust or reverse fault that splays upward from the main seismogenic fault at depth. The southeast end of the rupture projects closer to the mapped Oceanic fault trace, suggesting much of the slip was along this fault, or at a minimum is accommodating much of the postseismic deformation. InSAR imagery shows ∼72 mm of postseismic uplift in the vicinity of maximum coseismic slip in the central section of the rupture, and ∼48 and ∼45 mm at the northwest and southeast end of the aftershock zone, respectively. From these observations, we model a ∼30-km-long northwest-trending northeast-dipping mainshock rupture surface—called the mainthrust—which is likely the Oceanic fault at depth, a ∼10-km-long southwest-dipping backthrust parallel to the mainthrust near the hypocenter, several smaller southwest-dipping structures in the southeast, and perhaps additional northeast-dipping or subvertical structures southeast of the mainshock plane. Discontinuous backthrust features opposite the mainthrust in the southeast part of the aftershock zone may offset the relic Nacimiento fault zone at depth. The InSAR data image surface deformation associated with both aseismic slip and aftershock production on the mainthrust and the backthrusts at the northwest and southeast ends of the aftershock zone. The well-defined mainthrust at the latitude of the epicenter and antithetic backthrust illuminated by the aftershock zone indicate uplift of the Santa Lucia Range as a popup block; aftershocks in the southeast part of the zone also indicate a popup block, but it is less well defined. The absence of backthrust features in the central part of the zone suggests range-front uplift by fault-propagation folding, or backthrusts in the central part were not activated during the mainshock.

(Multi)fractality of Earthquakes by use of Wavelet Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enescu, B.; Ito, K.; Struzik, Z. R.

2002-12-01

The fractal character of earthquakes' occurrence, in time, space or energy, has by now been established beyond doubt and is in agreement with modern models of seismicity. Moreover, the cascade-like generation process of earthquakes -with one "main" shock followed by many aftershocks, having their own aftershocks- may well be described through multifractal analysis, well suited for dealing with such multiplicative processes. The (multi)fractal character of seismicity has been analysed so far by using traditional techniques, like the box-counting and correlation function algorithms. This work introduces a new approach for characterising the multifractal patterns of seismicity. The use of wavelet analysis, in particular of the wavelet transform modulus maxima, to multifractal analysis was pioneered by Arneodo et al. (1991, 1995) and applied successfully in diverse fields, such as the study of turbulence, the DNA sequences or the heart rate dynamics. The wavelets act like a microscope, revealing details about the analysed data at different times and scales. We introduce and perform such an analysis on the occurrence time of earthquakes and show its advantages. In particular, we analyse shallow seismicity, characterised by a high aftershock "productivity", as well as intermediate and deep seismic activity, known for its scarcity of aftershocks. We examine as well declustered (aftershocks removed) versions of seismic catalogues. Our preliminary results show some degree of multifractality for the undeclustered, shallow seismicity. On the other hand, at large scales, we detect a monofractal scaling behaviour, clearly put in evidence for the declustered, shallow seismic activity. Moreover, some of the declustered sequences show a long-range dependent (LRD) behaviour, characterised by a Hurst exponent, H > 0.5, in contrast with the memory-less, Poissonian model. We demonstrate that the LRD is a genuine characteristic and is not an effect of the time series probability distribution function. One of the most attractive features of wavelet analysis is its ability to determine a local Hurst exponent. We show that this feature together with the possibility of extending the analysis to spatial patterns may constitute a valuable approach to search for anomalous (precursory?) patterns of seismic activity.

Relationship between Near-Field and Teleseismic Observations of Seismic Source Parameters

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-07-01

For example, foreshocks and aftershocks of the Utah-Idaho border and Oroville, California sequences of 1975, as recorded at the Albuquerque SRO station...have been analyzed and compared; in both cases the principal foreshock exhibited the same mechanisms as the main shock, while the aftershocks are

Random variability explains apparent global clustering of large earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, A.J.

2011-01-01

The occurrence of 5 Mw ≥ 8.5 earthquakes since 2004 has created a debate over whether or not we are in a global cluster of large earthquakes, temporarily raising risks above long-term levels. I use three classes of statistical tests to determine if the record of M ≥ 7 earthquakes since 1900 can reject a null hypothesis of independent random events with a constant rate plus localized aftershock sequences. The data cannot reject this null hypothesis. Thus, the temporal distribution of large global earthquakes is well-described by a random process, plus localized aftershocks, and apparent clustering is due to random variability. Therefore the risk of future events has not increased, except within ongoing aftershock sequences, and should be estimated from the longest possible record of events.

Earthquakes induced by fluid injection and explosion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, J.H.; Hamilton, R.M.; Raleigh, C.B.

1970-01-01

Earthquakes generated by fluid injection near Denver, Colorado, are compared with earthquakes triggered by nuclear explosion at the Nevada Test Site. Spatial distributions of the earthquakes in both cases are compatible with the hypothesis that variation of fluid pressure in preexisting fractures controls the time distribution of the seismic events in an "aftershock" sequence. We suggest that the fluid pressure changes may also control the distribution in time and space of natural aftershock sequences and of earthquakes that have been reported near large reservoirs. ?? 1970.

Integrated Geophysical Characteristics of the 2015 Illapel, Chile, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, M. W.; Yeck, W. L.; Nealy, J. L.; Hayes, G. P.; Barnhart, W. D.; Benz, H.; Furlong, K. P.

2015-12-01

On September 16th, 2015, an Mw 8.3 earthquake (USGS moment magnitude) ruptured offshore of central Chile, 50 km west of the city of Illapel and 200 km north of Santiago. The earthquake occurred just north of where the Juan Fernandez Ridge enters the subduction zone. In this study, we integrate multiple seismic and geodetic datasets, including multiple-event earthquake relocations; moment tensors of the Illapel mainshock, aftershocks, and prior regional seismicity; finite fault models (FFMs) of the mainshock rupture; subduction zone geometry; Coulomb stress transfer calculations; and co-seismic GPS offsets and InSAR images. These datasets allow us to (a) assess the context of the Illapel earthquake sequence with respect to historical seismicity in central Chile; (b) constrain the relationship between subduction geometry and the kinematic characteristics of the earthquake sequence; and (c) understand the distribution of aftershocks with respect to the rupture zone. Double source W-phase moment tensor analysis indicates the Illapel mainshock rupture began as a smaller Mw ~7.2 thrusting event before growing into a great-sized Mw 8.3 earthquake. Relocated aftershock seismicity is concentrated around the main region of slip, and few aftershocks occur on the megathrust shallower than ~15 km, despite the FFM indicating slip near the trench. This distribution is consistent with the aftershock behavior following the 2010 Maule and 2014 Iquique earthquakes: aftershocks primarily surround the rupture zones and are largely absent from regions of greatest slip. However, in contrast to the recent 2014 Iquique and 2010 Maule events, which ruptured in regions of the Chilean subduction zone that had not had large events in over a century, this earthquake occurred in a section of the subduction zone that hosted a large earthquake as recently as 1943, as well as earlier significant events in 1880 and 1822. At this section of the subduction zone, in addition to the impinging Juan Fernandez Ridge, the slab geometry changes from steeply dipping south of the Illapel earthquake to a nearly horizontal dip adjacent to the event. Combining these various observations provides insight into the links between regional tectonics and the timing and distribution of megathrust earthquakes at this segment of the central Chilean subduction zone.

Effects of three-dimensional velocity structure on the seismicity of the 1984 Morgan Hill, California, aftershock sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, A.J.

1988-01-01

A three-dimensional velocity model for the area surrounding the 24 April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake has been developed by simultaneously inverting local earthquake and refraction arrival-time data. This velocity model corresponds well to the surface geology of the region, predominantly showing a low-velocity region associated with the sedimentary sequence to the south-west of the Madrone Springs fault. The focal mechanisms were also determined for 946 earthquakes using both the one-dimensional and three-dimensional earth models. Both earth models yield similar focal mechanisms for these earthquakes. -from Author

Multifractal Omori law for earthquake triggering: new tests on the California, Japan and worldwide catalogues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouillon, G.; Sornette, D.; Ribeiro, E.

2009-07-01

The Multifractal Stress-Activated model is a statistical model of triggered seismicity based on mechanical and thermodynamic principles. It predicts that, above a triggering magnitude cut-off M0, the exponent p of the Omori law for the time decay of the rate of aftershocks is a linear increasing function p(M) = a0M + b0 of the main shock magnitude M. We previously reported empirical support for this prediction, using the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) catalogue. Here, we confirm this observation using an updated, longer version of the same catalogue, as well as new methods to estimate p. One of this methods is the newly defined Scaling Function Analysis (SFA), adapted from the wavelet transform. This method is able to measure a mathematical singularity (hence a p-value), erasing the possible regular part of a time-series. The SFA also proves particularly efficient to reveal the coexistence and superposition of several types of relaxation laws (typical Omori sequences and short-lived swarms sequences) which can be mixed within the same catalogue. Another new method consists in monitoring the largest aftershock magnitude observed in successive time intervals, and thus shortcuts the problem of missing events with small magnitudes in aftershock catalogues. The same methods are used on data from the worldwide Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogue and show results compatible with those of Southern California. For the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalogue, we still observe a linear dependence of p on M, but with a smaller slope. The SFA shows however that results for this catalogue may be biased by numerous swarm sequences, despite our efforts to remove them before the analysis.

Structural context of the 2015 pair of Nepal earthquakes (Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.3): an analysis based on slip distribution, aftershock growth, and static stress changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parameswaran, Revathy M.; Rajendran, Kusala

2017-04-01

The Great Himalayan earthquakes are believed to originate on the Main Himalayan Thrust, and their ruptures lead to deformation along the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). The rupture of the April 25, 2015 (Mw 7.8), earthquake was east-directed, with no part relayed to the MFT. The aftershock distribution, coseismic elevation change of 1 m inferred from the InSAR image, and the spatial correspondence of the subtle surface deformations with PT2, a previously mapped out-of-sequence thrust, lead us to explore the role of structural heterogeneities in constraining the rupture progression. We used teleseismic moment inversion of P- and SH-waves, and Coulomb static stress changes to map the slip distribution, and growth of aftershock area, to understand their relation to the thrust systems. Most of the aftershocks were sourced outside the stress shadows (slip >1.65 m) of the April 25 earthquake. The May 12 (Mw 7.3) earthquake that sourced on a contiguous patch coincides with regions of increased stress change and therefore is the first known post-instrumentation example of a late, distant, and large triggered aftershock associated with any large earthquake in the Nepal Himalaya. The present study relates the slip, aftershock productivity, and triggering of unbroken stress barriers, to potential out-of-sequence thrusts, and suggests the role of stress transfer in generating large/great earthquakes.

High-precision relocation for aftershocks of the 2016 ML 5.8 Gyeongju earthquake in South Korea: Stress partitioning controlled by complex fault systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, J. U.; Rhie, J.; Kang, T. S.; Kim, S.; Chai, G.; Cho, E.

2017-12-01

Complex inherent fault system is one of key factors controlling the main shock occurrence and the pattern of aftershock sequence. Many field studies have shown that the fault systems in the Korean Peninsula are complex because they formed by various tectonic events since Proterozoic. Apart from that the mainshock is the largest one (ML 5.8) ever recorded in South Korea, the Gyeongju earthquake sequence shows particularly interesting features: ML 5.1 event preceded ML 5.8 event by 50 min and they are located closely to each other ( 1 km). In addition, ML 4.5 event occurred 2 3 km away from the two events after a week of the mainshock. Considering reported focal mechanisms and hypocenters of the three major events, it is unlikely that the earthquake sequence occurs on a single fault plane. To depict the detailed fault geometry associated with the sequence, we precisely determine the relative locations of 1,400 aftershocks recorded by 27 broadband stations, which started to be deployed less than one hour after the mainshock. Double difference algorithm is applied using relative travel time measurements by a waveform cross-correlation method. Relocated hypocenters show that a major fault striking NE-SW and some minor faults get involved in the sequence. In particular, aftershocks immediately following ML 4.5 event seem to occur on a fault striking NW-SE, which is orthogonal to the strike of a major fault. We expect that the Gyeongju earthquake sequence resulted from the stress transfer controlled by the complex inherent fault system in this region.

Seismic moment tensor inversion using 3D velocity model and its application to the 2013 Lushan earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Lupei; Zhou, Xiaofeng

2016-10-01

Source inversion of small-magnitude events such as aftershocks or mine collapses requires use of relatively high frequency seismic waveforms which are strongly affected by small-scale heterogeneities in the crust. In this study, we developed a new inversion method called gCAP3D for determining general moment tensor of a seismic source using Green's functions of 3D models. It inherits the advantageous features of the ;Cut-and-Paste; (CAP) method to break a full seismogram into the Pnl and surface-wave segments and to allow time shift between observed and predicted waveforms. It uses grid search for 5 source parameters (relative strengths of the isotropic and compensated-linear-vector-dipole components and the strike, dip, and rake of the double-couple component) that minimize the waveform misfit. The scalar moment is estimated using the ratio of L2 norms of the data and synthetics. Focal depth can also be determined by repeating the inversion at different depths. We applied gCAP3D to the 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake and its aftershocks using a 3D crustal-upper mantle velocity model derived from ambient noise tomography in the region. We first relocated the events using the double-difference method. We then used the finite-differences method and reciprocity principle to calculate Green's functions of the 3D model for 20 permanent broadband seismic stations within 200 km from the source region. We obtained moment tensors of the mainshock and 74 aftershocks ranging from Mw 5.2 to 3.4. The results show that the Lushan earthquake is a reverse faulting at a depth of 13-15 km on a plane dipping 40-47° to N46° W. Most of the aftershocks occurred off the main rupture plane and have similar focal mechanisms to the mainshock's, except in the proximity of the mainshock where the aftershocks' focal mechanisms display some variations.

The 12th June 2017 Mw = 6.3 Lesvos earthquake from detailed seismological observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadimitriou, P.; Kassaras, I.; Kaviris, G.; Tselentis, G.-A.; Voulgaris, N.; Lekkas, E.; Chouliaras, G.; Evangelidis, C.; Pavlou, K.; Kapetanidis, V.; Karakonstantis, A.; Kazantzidou-Firtinidou, D.; Fountoulakis, I.; Millas, C.; Spingos, I.; Aspiotis, T.; Moumoulidou, A.; Skourtsos, E.; Antoniou, V.; Andreadakis, E.; Mavroulis, S.; Kleanthi, M.

2018-04-01

A major earthquake (Mwö=ö6.3) occurred on the 12th of June 2017 (12:28 GMT) offshore, south of the SE coast of Lesvos Island, at a depth of 13ökm, in an area characterized by normal faulting with an important strike-slip component in certain cases. Over 900 events of the sequence between 12 and 30 June 2017 were manually analyzed and located, employing an optimized local velocity model. Double-difference relocation revealed seven spatially separated groups of events, forming two linear branches, roughly aligned N130°E, compatible with the strike of known mapped faults along the southern coast of Lesvos Island. Spatiotemporal analysis indicated gradual migration of seismicity towards NW and SE from the margins of the main rupture, while a strong secondary sequence at a separate fault patch SE of the mainshock, oriented NW-SE, was triggered by the largest aftershock (Mwö=ö5.2) that occurred on 17 June. The focal mechanisms of the mainshock (φö=ö122°, δö=ö40° and λö=ö-83°) and of the major aftershocks were determined using regional moment tensor inversion. In most cases normal faulting was revealed with the fault plane oriented in a NW-SE direction, dipping SW, with the exception of the largest aftershock that was characterized by strike-slip faulting. Stress inversion revealed a complex stress field south of Lesvos, related both to normal, in an approximate E-W direction, and strike-slip faulting. All aftershocks outside the main rupture, where gradual seismicity migration was observed, are located within the positive lobes of static stress transfer determined by applying the Coulomb criterion for the mainshock. Stress loading on optimal faults under a strike-slip regime explains the occurrence of the largest aftershock and the seismicity that was triggered at the eastern patch of the rupture zone.

Strategies for automatic processing of large aftershock sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvaerna, T.; Gibbons, S. J.

2017-12-01

Aftershock sequences following major earthquakes present great challenges to seismic bulletin generation. The analyst resources needed to locate events increase with increased event numbers as the quality of underlying, fully automatic, event lists deteriorates. While current pipelines, designed a generation ago, are usually limited to single passes over the raw data, modern systems also allow multiple passes. Processing the raw data from each station currently generates parametric data streams that are later subject to phase-association algorithms which form event hypotheses. We consider a major earthquake scenario and propose to define a region of likely aftershock activity in which we will detect and accurately locate events using a separate, specially targeted, semi-automatic process. This effort may use either pattern detectors or more general algorithms that cover wider source regions without requiring waveform similarity. An iterative procedure to generate automatic bulletins would incorporate all the aftershock event hypotheses generated by the auxiliary process, and filter all phases from these events from the original detection lists prior to a new iteration of the global phase-association algorithm.

Estimates of velocity structure and source depth using multiple P waves from aftershocks of the 1987 Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills, California, earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mori, J.

1991-01-01

Event record sections, which are constructed by plotting seismograms from many closely spaced earthquakes recorded on a few stations, show multiple free-surface reflections (PP, PPP, PPPP) of the P wave in the Imperial Valley. The relative timing of these arrivals is used to estimate the strength of the P-wave velocity gradient within the upper 5 km of the sediment layer. Consistent with previous studies, a velocity model with a value of 1.8 km/sec at the surface increasing linearly to 5.8 km/sec at a depth of 5.5 km fits the data well. The relative amplitudes of the P and PP arrivals are used to estimate the source depth for the aftershock distributions of the Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills main shocks. Although the depth determination has large uncertainties, both the Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills aftershock sequencs appear to have similar depth distribution in the range of 4 to 10 km. -Author

Transient poroelastic stress coupling between the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake and its M7.3 aftershock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tung, S.; Masterlark, T.; Dovovan, T.

2018-05-01

The large M7.3 aftershock occurred 17 days after the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake. We investigate if this sequence is mechanically favored by the mainshock via time-dependent fluid migration and pore pressure recovery. This study uses finite element models of fully-coupled poroelastic coseismic and postseismic behavior to simulate the evolving stress and pore-pressure fields. Using simulations of a reasonable permeability, the hypocenter was destabilized by an additional 0.15 MPa of Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCFS) and 0.17 MPa of pore pressure (Δp), the latter of which induced lateral and upward diffusive fluid flow (up to 2.76 mm/day) in the aftershock region. The M7.3 location is predicted next to a local maximum of Δp and a zone of positive ΔCFS northeast of Kathmandu. About 60% of the aftershocks occurred within zones having either Δp > 0 or ΔCFS > 0. Particularly in the eastern flank of the epicentral area, 83% of the aftershocks experienced postseismic fluid pressurization and 88% of them broke out with positive pore pressure, which are discernibly more than those with positive ΔCFS (71%). The transient scalar field of fluid pressurization provides a good proxy to predict aftershock-prone areas in space and time, because it does not require extraction of an assumed vector field from transient stress tensor fields as is the case for ΔCFS calculations. A bulk permeability of 8.32 × 10-18 m2 is resolved to match the transient response and the timing of the M7.3 rupture which occurred at the peak of the ΔCFS time-series. This estimate is consistent with the existing power-law permeability-versus-depth models, suggesting an intermediately-fractured upper crust coherent with the local geology of the central Himalayas. The contribution of poroelastic triggering is verified against different poroelastic moduli and surface flow-pressure boundaries, suggesting that a poroelastic component is essential to account for the time interval separating the mainshock and the M7.3 aftershock.

Statistical Analysis of Seismicity in the Sumatra Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bansal, A.; Main, I.

2007-12-01

We examine the effect of the great M=9.0 Boxing day 2004 earthquake on the statistics of seismicity in the Sumatra region by dividing data from the NEIC catalogue into two time windows before and after the earthquake. First we determine a completeness threshold of magnitude 4.5 for the whole dataset from the stability of the maximum likelihood b-value with respect to changes in the threshold. The split data sets have similar statistical sampling, with 2563 events before and 3701 after the event. Temporal clustering is first quantified broadly by the fractal dimension of the time series to be respectively 0.137, 0.259 and 0.222 before, after and for the whole dataset, compared to a Poisson null hypothesis of 0, indicating a significant increase in temporal clustering after the event associated with aftershocks. To quantify this further we apply the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. The background random seismicity rate £g and the coefficient Ñ, a measure of an efficiency of a magnitude of an earthquake in generating its aftershocks, do not change significantly when averaged over the two time periods. In contrast the amplitude A of aftershock generation changes by a factor 4 or so, and there is a small but statistically significant increase in the Omori decay exponent p, indicating a faster decay rate of the aftershocks after the Sumatra earthquake. The ETAS model parameters are calculated for different magnitude threshold (i.e. 4.5, 5.0, 5.5) with similar results for the different magnitude thresholds. The Ñ values increases from near 1 to near 1.5, possibly reflecting known changes in the scaling exponent between scalar moment and magnitude with increasing magnitude. A simple relation of magnitude and span of aftershock activity indicates that detectable aftershock activity of the Sumatra earthquake may last up to 8.7 years. Earthquakes are predominantly in the depth range 30-40 km before 20-30 km after the mainshock, compared to a CMT centroid depth of the earthquake of 28.6 km.

Båth's law and its relation to the tectonic environment: A case study for earthquakes in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Pérez, Q.; Zúñiga, F. R.

2016-09-01

We studied 66 mainshocks and their largest aftershocks in the Mexican subduction zone and in the Gulf of California with magnitudes in the range of 5.2 < Mw < 8.0 from 1932 to 2015. Three different types of earthquakes were analyzed: shallow thrust interplate, intermediate-depth inslab and transform strike-slip earthquakes (26, 19 and 21 events, respectively). We focus on observational aspects of the Båth's law. By studying the magnitude difference, energy ratios and energy partitioning of the mainshock-largest aftershock sequences, we analyze the physics of the mainshock-largest aftershock relationship (Båth's law). The partitioning of energy during a mainshock-aftershock sequence shows that about 96-97% of the energy dissipated in a sequence is associated with the mainshock and the rest is due to aftershocks. Our results for radiated seismic energy and energy-to-moment ratio are partially in agreement with worldwide studies supporting the observation of mechanism dependence of radiated seismic energy. The statistical tests indicate that the only significant difference is for shallow thrust and strike-slip events for these parameters. The statistical comparison of stress drop of shallow thrust versus that of inslab events shows a strongly significant difference with a confidence better than 99%. The comparison of stress drop of shallow thrust events with that of strike-slip events, also indicates a strongly significant difference. We see no dependence of stress drop with magnitude, which is strong evidence of earthquake self-similarity. We do not observe a systematic depth dependence of stress drop. The results also reveal differences in the earthquake rupture among the events. The magnitude difference between the mainshock and the largest aftershock for inslab events is larger than interplate and strike-slip events suggesting focal mechanism dependence of Båth's law. For the case of this parameter, only that for inslab and strike-slip events present a significant difference with 95% confidence.

Seismicity of the Pahute Mesa area, Nevada Test Site: 8 October 1975 to 30 June 1976

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rogers, A.M.; Wuollet, Geraldine M.; Covington, P.A.

1977-01-01

A total of 1,075 earthquakes occurred in the Pahute Mesa area with 2.5≤ML≤4.9 during the period October 28, 1975, to June 28, 1976. The majority of these earthquakes are aftershocks of the nuclear events, Kasseri, Inlet, Muenster, Fontina, Cheshire, Estuary, Colby, and Pool (5.8≤ML≤6.3). Smaller nuclear events (ML≤5.5) on Rainier Mesa and Yucca Flat detonated in the same time period did not trigger aftershock sequences. The aftershock series were displaced laterally from ground zero and occurred deeper (at 4–6 km) than the nuclear even depth of burial (~1 km). The aftershocks appear to occur on vertical faults with approximately north-south strike.

Long-lived aftershock sequences around Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jian; Main, Ian G.; Musson, Roger M. W.

2017-04-01

SUMMARY Most aftershock sequences are relatively transient, decaying over months or years to background levels. However, in some intra-plate areas, persistent clusters of events can occur over much greater time scales, for example the ongoing sequence in the New Madrid zone of the eastern US. Here we examine the evidence for such long-lived aftershock sequences around Beijing, China. First we introduce a metric known as the 'seismic density index' that quantifies the degree of clustering of seismic energy release. For a given map location, this multi-dimensional index depends on the number of events, their magnitudes, and the distances to the locations of the surrounding population of earthquakes. We apply the index to modern instrumental catalogue data between 1970 and 2014, and identify six clear candidate zones for long-lived aftershocks. We then compare these locations to earthquake epicenter and seismic intensity data for the six largest historical earthquakes. Each candidate zone contains one of the six historical events, and the location of peak intensity is within 5km or so of the reported epicenter in five of these cases. In one case - the great Ms 8 earthquake of 1679 - the peak is closer to the area of strongest shaking (Intensity XI or more) than the reported epicenter. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that the modern clusters are long-lived aftershocks. However, there is no systematic reduction in the seismic event rate in these candidate zones with time since 1970, as one might expect from a transient decay by the Omori law. This could be due to the decay rate being too slow to be detected, or that the index is instead picking out the location of persistent weaknesses in the lithosphere. In either case the results imply that areas of high seismic density index could be used in principle to indicate the location of unrecorded historical of palaeo-seismic events in areas of intra-plate continental seismicity.

Triggered aseismic slip adjacent to the 6 February 2013 Mw 8.0 Santa Cruz Islands megathrust earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, Gavin P.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Benz, Harley M.; Herman, Matthew W.

2014-01-01

Aseismic or slow slip events have been observed in many subduction zones, but whether they affect the occurrence of earthquakes or result from stress changes caused by nearby events is unclear. In an area lacking direct geodetic observations, inferences can be made from seismological studies of co-seismic slip, associated stress changes and the spatiotemporal nature of aftershocks. These observations indicate that the February 2013 Mw 8.0 Santa Cruz Islands earthquake may have triggered slow or aseismic slip on an adjacent section of the subduction thrust over the following hours to days. This aseismic event was equivalent to Mw 7.6, significantly larger than any earthquakes in the aftershock sequence. The aseismic slip was situated within the seismogenic portion of the subduction interface, and must have occurred to the south of the main seismic slip and most aftershocks in order to promote right-lateral faulting in the upper plate, the dominant deformation style of the aftershock sequence. This plate boundary segment can support either stable sliding (aseismic) or stick-slip (seismic) deformation in response to different driving conditions. The complete lack of aftershocks on the thrust interface implies this pair of megathrust slip episodes (seismic and aseismic) released a substantial portion of the stored strain on the northernmost section of the Vanuatu subduction zone.

Aftershocks illuminate the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake causative fault zone and nearby active faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Horton, J. Wright; Shah, Anjana K.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Snyder, Stephen L.; Carter, Aina M

2015-01-01

Deployment of temporary seismic stations after the 2011 Mineral, Virginia (USA), earthquake produced a well-recorded aftershock sequence. The majority of aftershocks are in a tabular cluster that delineates the previously unknown Quail fault zone. Quail fault zone aftershocks range from ~3 to 8 km in depth and are in a 1-km-thick zone striking ~036° and dipping ~50°SE, consistent with a 028°, 50°SE main-shock nodal plane having mostly reverse slip. This cluster extends ~10 km along strike. The Quail fault zone projects to the surface in gneiss of the Ordovician Chopawamsic Formation just southeast of the Ordovician–Silurian Ellisville Granodiorite pluton tail. The following three clusters of shallow (<3 km) aftershocks illuminate other faults. (1) An elongate cluster of early aftershocks, ~10 km east of the Quail fault zone, extends 8 km from Fredericks Hall, strikes ~035°–039°, and appears to be roughly vertical. The Fredericks Hall fault may be a strand or splay of the older Lakeside fault zone, which to the south spans a width of several kilometers. (2) A cluster of later aftershocks ~3 km northeast of Cuckoo delineates a fault near the eastern contact of the Ordovician Quantico Formation. (3) An elongate cluster of late aftershocks ~1 km northwest of the Quail fault zone aftershock cluster delineates the northwest fault (described herein), which is temporally distinct, dips more steeply, and has a more northeastward strike. Some aftershock-illuminated faults coincide with preexisting units or structures evident from radiometric anomalies, suggesting tectonic inheritance or reactivation.

Detailed Spatio-temporal Distribution of the 16 April 2016 M7.8 Pedernales Ecuador Aftershock Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, S.; Font, Y.; Rolandone, F.; Nocquet, J. M.; Beck, S. L.; Meltzer, A.; Gabriela, P.; Plain, M.; Ruiz, M. C.; Alvarado, A. P.

2016-12-01

On 16 April 2016, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake occurred along the Nazca-South America plate interface near Pedernales, Ecuador. In this study, we present a detailed characterization of the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks and how they relate to the inter-, co-, and post-seismic deformation patterns. Aside from a magnitude 5.1 earthquake 10 minutes prior to the main event, no extended foreshock sequence was observed in the vicinity of the mainshock hypocenter. However, an analysis of the frequency-magnitude distributions of the seismicity near Pedernales in the years preceding the mainshock indicates a significant decrease in the b-value leading up to the mainshock origin time. This same area is also the location of elevated (>0.7) interseismic coupling as gleaned from GPS. Various coseismic slip models also seem to correlate quite well with plate interface coupling. Temporally, the aftershocks nearest to the areas of peak coseismic displacement show a power law decay with a p-value of 0.5. Within days of the mainshock, a southwesterly migration of aftershocks became apparent and likely represents a seismic manifestation of a triggered slow slip event. To date, at least 10 events of magnitude greater than M6 have been triggered. Curiously, 8 of these 10 events have occurred in the form of doublets, with the largest pair (M6.7,M6.9) occurring one month after the mainshock and separated by 9 hours. After several months of quiescence, seismicity north of the Atacames Promontory has begun to show elevated rate increases, especially near the city of Esmeraldas. This seismicity is likely related to stress changes imparted by the mainshock, but their delayed nature and likely location in the overriding plate requires further analysis to establish a definitive link.

Space-Time Earthquake Rate Models for One-Year Hazard Forecasts in Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llenos, A. L.; Michael, A. J.

2017-12-01

The recent one-year seismic hazard assessments for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern US (CEUS) (Petersen et al., 2016, 2017) rely on earthquake rate models based on declustered catalogs (i.e., catalogs with foreshocks and aftershocks removed), as is common practice in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. However, standard declustering can remove over 90% of some induced sequences in the CEUS. Some of these earthquakes may still be capable of causing damage or concern (Petersen et al., 2015, 2016). The choices of whether and how to decluster can lead to seismicity rate estimates that vary by up to factors of 10-20 (Llenos and Michael, AGU, 2016). Therefore, in order to improve the accuracy of hazard assessments, we are exploring ways to make forecasts based on full, rather than declustered, catalogs. We focus on Oklahoma, where earthquake rates began increasing in late 2009 mainly in central Oklahoma and ramped up substantially in 2013 with the expansion of seismicity into northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. We develop earthquake rate models using the space-time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988; Ogata, AISM, 1998; Zhuang et al., JASA, 2002), which characterizes both the background seismicity rate as well as aftershock triggering. We examine changes in the model parameters over time, focusing particularly on background rate, which reflects earthquakes that are triggered by external driving forces such as fluid injection rather than other earthquakes. After the model parameters are fit to the seismicity data from a given year, forecasts of the full catalog for the following year can then be made using a suite of 100,000 ETAS model simulations based on those parameters. To evaluate this approach, we develop pseudo-prospective yearly forecasts for Oklahoma from 2013-2016 and compare them with the observations using standard Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability tests for consistency.

The Hellenic Seismological Network Of Crete (HSNC): Validation and results of the 2013 aftershock sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatzopoulos, Georgios; Papadopoulos, Ilias; Vallianatos, Filippos

2015-04-01

The number and quality of seismological networks in Europe has increased in the past decades. Nevertheless, the need for localized networks monitoring areas of great seismic and scientific interest is constant. Hellenic Seismological Network of Crete (HSNC) covers this need for the vicinity of the South Aegean Sea and Crete Island. In the present work with the use of Z-map software (www.seismo.ethz.ch) the spatial variability of Magnitude of Completeness (Mc) is calculated from HSNC's manual analysis catalogue of events for the period 2011 until today, proving the good coverage of HSNC in the areas. Furthermore the 2013, South Aegean seismicity where two large shallow earthquakes occurred in the vicinity of Crete Island, is discussed. The first event takes place on 15th June 2013 in the front of the Hellenic Arc, south from central Crete, while the second one on 12th October, 2013 on the western part of Crete. The two main shocks and their aftershock sequences have been relocated with the use of hypoinverse earthquake location software and an appropriate crust model. The HSNC identified more than 500 and 300 aftershocks respectively followed after the main events. The detailed construction of aftershocks catalogue permits the applicability of modern theories based on complexity sciences as described recently in the frame of non extensive statistical physics. In addition site effects in the stations locations are presented using event and noise recordings. This work was implemented through the project IMPACT-ARC in the framework of action "ARCHIMEDES III-Support of Research Teams at TEI of Crete" (MIS380353) of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" and is co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund) and Greek national funds References A. Tzanis and F. Vallianatos, "Distributed power-law seismicity changes and crustal deformation in the EW Hellenic Arc", Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences, 3, 179-195, 2003 F. Vallianatos, G. Michas, G. Papadakis and P. Sammonds " A non extensive statistical physics view to the spatiotemporal properties of the June 1995, Aigion earthquake (M6.2) aftershock sequence (West Corinth rift, Greece)", Acta Geophysica, 60(3), 758-768, 2012. G. Hloupis, I. Papadopoulos, J. P. Makris and F. Vallianatos, "The South Aegean seismological network - HSNC" Advances in Geosciences, 34, 15-21, doi:10.5194/adgeo-34-15-2013, 2013.

Magnitude estimates of two large aftershocks of the 16 December 1811 New Madrid earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.; Martin, S.

2002-01-01

The three principal New Madrid mainshocks of 1811-1812 were followed by extensive aftershock sequences that included numerous felt events. Although no instrumental data are available for either the mainshocks or the aftershocks, available historical accounts do provide information that can be used to estimate magnitudes and locations for the large events. In this article we investigate two of the largest aftershocks: one near dawn following the first mainshock on 16 December 1811, and one near midday on 17 December 1811. We reinterpret original felt reports to obtain a set of 48 and 20 modified Mercalli intensity values of the two aftershocks, respectively. For the dawn aftershock, we infer a Mw of approximately 7.0 based on a comparison of its intensities with those of the smallest New Madrid mainshock. Based on a detailed account that appears to describe near-field ground motions, we further propose a new fault rupture scenario for the dawn aftershock. We suggest that the aftershock had a thrust mechanism and occurred on a southeastern limb of the Reelfoot fault. For the 17 December 1811 aftershock, we infer a Mw of approximately 6.1 ?? 0.2. This value is determined using the method of Bakun et al. (2002), which is based on a new calibration of intensity versus distance for earthquakes in central and eastern North America. The location of this event is not well constrained, but the available accounts suggest an epicenter beyond the southern end of the New Madrid Seismic Zone.

Full Aftershock Sequence of the M w 6.9 2003 Boumerdes Earthquake, Algeria: Space-Time Distribution, Local Tomography and Seismotectonic Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kherroubi, Abdelaziz; Yelles-Chaouche, Abdelkrim; Koulakov, Ivan; Déverchère, Jacques; Beldjoudi, Hamoud; Haned, Abderrahmane; Semmane, Fethi; Aidi, Chafik

2017-07-01

We present a detailed analysis of the aftershocks of the May 21, 2003 Boumerdes earthquake ( M w = 6.9) recorded by 35 seismological stations and 2 OBS deployed in the epicentral area. This network recorded the aftershock activity for about 1 year and resulted in locating about 2500 events. The five main aftershocks (4.7 < M <5.8) display thrust faulting consistent with the main shock, except for the second event (M5.8, 29/05/2003) which depicts a strike-slip focal solution at the western tip of the rupture zone. Most aftershocks are clustered near the main rupture plane, in the footwall or at the westernmost tip of the 2003 Boumerdes rupture area. Many aftershocks last over the whole seismic crisis ahead (north) of the main rupture zone, forming a diffuse, low-angle surface within the footwall where the coseismic static stress change is predicted to increase. At the SW tip of the rupture, short-lived clusters locate at intersections of faults near the contact between the inner (Kabylia) and outer (Tell) zones. The tomographic inversion depicts high-velocity P- and S-wave anomalies coinciding with Miocene magmatic intrusive bodies in the upper crust, partially hidden by surrounding basins. The area of the main shock is associated with a large low-velocity body subdivided into sub-domains, including Neogene basins on land and offshore. Our results support a rupture model strongly controlled by geological inhomogeneities and extending as ramp-flat-ramp systems upward, favoring heterogeneous slip and segmentation in the fault plane with strong afterslip toward the surface. The diffuse aftershock activity in the footwall evidences an inherited discontinuity at mid-crustal depth that we interpret as the contact of Kabylian and African (Tethyan) continental crusts that were stacked during the Upper Miocene collision.

Seismotectonics of Marasesti region (Eastern Romania) revealed by earthquake relocations and moment tensor determinations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borleanu, Felix; Rogozea, Maria; Placinta, Anca; Popa, Mihaela; Radulian, Mircea

2017-04-01

A large seismic sequence occurred between 22 November 2014 and 31 January 2015 in the Foredeep area of the South-Eastern Carpathians at a distance of about 10 km north-east relative to Marasesti city. The sequence was located in the lower crust, close to 40 km depth. Although the moment magnitude of the largest event was 5.4 according to Romplus (Romanian earthquakes catalog) the largest aftershock did not exceed 4.0 (Mw) and most of the aftershocks were weak (magnitude below 3). From a total of 230 well-located events, we relocated 178 using more than 17000 P and S differential travel times. The results show a NW-SE alignment consistent with the focal mechanism solution computed through the broadband seismic waveforms inversion. An important aspect of this sequence is the distribution in time of the seismic events, which reveals an aftershocks migration with an average velocity of about 3 km/day. This seismicity behavior might be due to the presence of the fluids. We interpret all these features in terms of the seismotectonics of the region.

Explanation of temporal clustering of tsunami sources using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.

2014-01-01

Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is examined in terms of a branching process model. It previously was observed that there are more short interevent times between consecutive tsunami sources than expected from a stationary Poisson process. The epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching process model is fitted to tsunami catalog events, using the earthquake magnitude of the causative event from the Centennial and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogs and tsunami sizes above a completeness level as a mark to indicate that a tsunami was generated. The ETAS parameters are estimated using the maximum‐likelihood method. The interevent distribution associated with the ETAS model provides a better fit to the data than the Poisson model or other temporal clustering models. When tsunamigenic conditions (magnitude threshold, submarine location, dip‐slip mechanism) are applied to the Global CMT catalog, ETAS parameters are obtained that are consistent with those estimated from the tsunami catalog. In particular, the dip‐slip condition appears to result in a near zero magnitude effect for triggered tsunami sources. The overall consistency between results from the tsunami catalog and that from the earthquake catalog under tsunamigenic conditions indicates that ETAS models based on seismicity can provide the structure for understanding patterns of tsunami source occurrence. The fractional rate of triggered tsunami sources on a global basis is approximately 14%.

The 1998 earthquake sequence south of Long Valley Caldera, California: Hints of magmatic involvement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.; Dollar, R.S.; Johnson, P.

2000-01-01

A significant episode of seismic and geodetic unrest took place at Long Valley Caldera, California, beginning in the summer of 1997. Activity through late May of 1998 was concentrated in and around the south moat and the south margin of the resurgent dome. The Sierran Nevada block (SNB) region to the south/southeast remained relatively quiet until a M 5.1 event occurred there on 9 June 1998 (UT). A second M 5.1 event followed on 15 July (UT); both events were followed by appreciable aftershock sequences. An additional, distinct burst of activity began on 1 August 1998. The number of events in the August sequence (over the first week or two) was similar to the aftershock sequence of the 15 July 1998 M 5.1 event, but the later sequence was not associated with any events larger than M 4.3. All of the summer 1998 SNB activity was considered tectonic rather than magmatic; in general the SNB is considered an unlikely location for future eruptions. However, the August sequence-an 'aftershock sequence without a mainshock'-is suggestive of a strain event larger than the cumulative seismotectonic strain release. Moreover, a careful examination of waveforms from the August sequence reveals a small handful of events whose spectral signature is strikingly harmonic. We investigate the waveforms of these events using spectral, autocorrelation, and empirical Green's function techniques and conclude that they were most likely associated with a fluid-controlled source. Our observations suggest that there may have been some degree of magma or magma-derived fluid involvement in the 1998 SNB sequence.

Spatial stress variations in the aftershock sequence following the 2008 M6 earthquake doublet in the South Iceland Seismic Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hensch, M.; Árnadóttir, Th.; Lund, B.; Brandsdóttir, B.

2012-04-01

The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) is an approximately 80 km wide E-W transform zone, bridging the offset between the Eastern Volcanic Zone and the Hengill triple junction to the west. The plate motion is accommodated in the brittle crust by faulting on many N-S trending right-lateral strike-slip faults of 2-5 km separation. Major sequences of large earthquakes (M>6) has occurred repeatedly in the SISZ since the settlement in Iceland more than thousand years ago. On 29th May 2008, two M6 earthquakes hit the western part of the SISZ on two adjacent N-S faults within a few seconds. The intense aftershock sequence was recorded by the permanent Icelandic SIL network and a promptly installed temporary network of 11 portable seismometers in the source region. The network located thousands of aftershocks during the following days, illuminating a 12-17 km long region along both major fault ruptures as well as several smaller parallel faults along a diffuse E-W trending region west of the mainshock area without any preceding main rupture. This episode is suggested to be the continuation of an earthquake sequence which started with two M6.5 and several M5-6 events in June 2000. The time delay between the 2000 and 2008 events could be due to an inflation episode in Hengill during 1993-1998, that potentially locked N-S strike slip faults in the western part of the SISZ. Around 300 focal solutions for aftershocks have been derived by analyzing P-wave polarities, showing predominantly strike-slip movements with occasional normal faulting components (unstable P-axis direction), which suggests an extensional stress regime as their driving force. A subsequent stress inversion of four different aftershock clusters reveals slight variations of the directions of the average σ3 axes. While for both southern clusters, including the E-W cluster, the σ3 axes are rather elongated perpendicular to the overall plate spreading axis, they are more northerly trending for shallower clusters located further north. In this study we will try to shed light into whether the azimuth variations of σ3 is caused by stress changes due to the inflation-deflation episode in Hengill (NW of the activated fault zone) or solely depending to the depth of the aftershock clusters.

An Explosion Aftershock Model with Application to On-Site Inspection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Sean R.; Labak, Peter

2016-01-01

An estimate of aftershock activity due to a theoretical underground nuclear explosion is produced using an aftershock rate model. The model is developed with data from the Nevada National Security Site, formerly known as the Nevada Test Site, and the Semipalatinsk Test Site, which we take to represent soft-rock and hard-rock testing environments, respectively. Estimates of expected magnitude and number of aftershocks are calculated using the models for different testing and inspection scenarios. These estimates can help inform the Seismic Aftershock Monitoring System (SAMS) deployment in a potential Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty On-Site Inspection (OSI), by giving the OSI team a probabilistic assessment of potential aftershocks in the Inspection Area (IA). The aftershock assessment, combined with an estimate of the background seismicity in the IA and an empirically derived map of threshold magnitude for the SAMS network, could aid the OSI team in reporting. We apply the hard-rock model to a M5 event and combine it with the very sensitive detection threshold for OSI sensors to show that tens of events per day are expected up to a month after an explosion measured several kilometers away.

An explosion aftershock model with application to on-site inspection

DOE PAGES

Ford, Sean R.; Labak, Peter

2015-02-14

An estimate of aftershock activity due to a theoretical underground nuclear explosion is produced using an aftershock rate model. The model is developed with data from the Nevada National Security Site, formerly known as the Nevada Test Site, and the Semipalatinsk Test Site, which we take to represent soft-rock and hard-rock testing environments, respectively. Estimates of expected magnitude and number of aftershocks are calculated using the models for different testing and inspection scenarios. These estimates can help inform the Seismic Aftershock Monitoring System (SAMS) deployment in a potential Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty On-Site Inspection (OSI), by giving the OSI teammore » a probabilistic assessment of potential aftershocks in the Inspection Area (IA). The aftershock assessment, combined with an estimate of the background seismicity in the IA and an empirically derived map of threshold magnitude for the SAMS network, could aid the OSI team in reporting. Here, we apply the hard-rock model to a M5 event and combine it with the very sensitive detection threshold for OSI sensors to show that tens of events per day are expected up to a month after an explosion measured several kilometers away.« less

Aftershock Comparisons of the Tehuantepec and Puebla Earthquakes: Implications for the Transition between Aseismic and Seismic Behavior?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, E.

2017-12-01

Reduced aftershock productivity has been observed in subduction zones where slow slip events and aseismic transients have also been observed. A comparison of the aftershock productivity of the recent Tehuantepec and Puebla earthquakes corroborates such observations. The Tehuantepec earthquake of 8 September 2017 produced hundreds of aftershocks and arguably still continues to produce them as of late October 2017, whereas the Puebla earthquake of 19 September 2017 notably lacks aftershocks. This difference in productivity cannot simply be ascribed to differences in mainshock magnitude or detection thresholds. The Puebla earthquake occurred downdip from and just adjacent to the eastern edges of previously observed slow slip events in the Guerrero Gap, whereas the Tehuantepec event is quite removed along strike from the Guerrero Gap and ruptured a patch of fault adjacent to other previous ruptures that also produced standard aftershock sequences. In order to compare aftershock productivity of earthquakes near the Guerrero Gap slow slip region with adjacent regions I used the Advanced National Seismic System catalog and counted aftershocks within a 14-day 100-km window of 42 M>=6.0 slab earthquakes that occurred since 2001 in a box bounded by 13°N and 20°N, and between 91°W and 103°W. This box includes the Guerrero Gap and significant portions of the plate boundary on either side. Preliminary results indicate that ordinary fast-rupturing earthquake productivity in general is much reduced near the location of known SSEs and aftershock productivity of those events that do occur is low compared to earthquakes outside that zone. Earthquakes with low aftershock productivity may represent transitional behavior from aseismic to seismic and in terms of frictional rheology, may represent the transition from velocity weakening to velocity strengthening.

Foreshocks and aftershocks of Pisagua 2014 earthquake: time and space evolution of megathrust event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuenzalida Velasco, Amaya; Rietbrock, Andreas; Wollam, Jack; Thomas, Reece; de Lima Neto, Oscar; Tavera, Hernando; Garth, Thomas; Ruiz, Sergio

2016-04-01

The 2014 Pisagua earthquake of magnitude 8.2 is the first case in Chile where a foreshock sequence was clearly recorded by a local network, as well all the complete sequence including the mainshock and its aftershocks. The seismicity of the last year before the mainshock include numerous clusters close to the epicentral zone (Ruiz et al; 2014) but it was on 16th March that this activity became stronger with the Mw 6.7 precursory event taking place in front of Iquique coast at 12 km depth. The Pisagua earthquake arrived on 1st April 2015 breaking almost 120 km N-S and two days after a 7.6 aftershock occurred in the south of the rupture, enlarging the zone affected by this sequence. In this work, we analyse the foreshocks and aftershock sequence of Pisagua earthquake, from the spatial and time evolution for a total of 15.764 events that were recorded from the 1st March to 31th May 2015. This event catalogue was obtained from the automatic analyse of seismic raw data of more than 50 stations installed in the north of Chile and the south of Peru. We used the STA/LTA algorithm for the detection of P and S arrival times on the vertical components and then a method of back propagation in a 1D velocity model for the event association and preliminary location of its hypocenters following the algorithm outlined by Rietbrock et al. (2012). These results were then improved by locating with NonLinLoc software using a regional velocity model. We selected the larger events to analyse its moment tensor solution by a full waveform inversion using ISOLA software. In order to understand the process of nucleation and propagation of the Pisagua earthquake, we also analysed the evolution in time of the seismicity of the three months of data. The zone where the precursory events took place was strongly activated two weeks before the mainshock and remained very active until the end of the analysed period with an important quantity of the seismicity located in the upper plate and having variations in its focal mechanisms. The evolution of the Pisagua sequence point out a rupture by steps, that we suggest to be related to the properties of the upper plate, as well as along in the subduction interface. The spatial distribution of seismicity was compared to the inter-seismic coupling of previous studies, the regional bathymetry and the slip distribution of both the mainshock and the Magnitude 7.6 event. The results show an important relation between the low coupling zones and the areas lacking large magnitude events

Fluid‐driven seismicity response of the Rinconada fault near Paso Robles, California, to the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

2012-01-01

The 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon, California, earthquake caused significant damage in the city of Paso Robles and a persistent cluster of aftershocks close to Paso Robles near the Rinconada fault. Given the importance of secondary aftershock triggering in sequences of large events, a concern is whether this cluster of events could trigger another damaging earthquake near Paso Robles. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is fit to the Rinconada seismicity, and multiple realizations indicate a 0.36% probability of at least one M≥6.0 earthquake during the next 30 years. However, this probability estimate is only as good as the projection into the future of the ETAS model. There is evidence that the seismicity may be influenced by fluid pressure changes, which cannot be forecasted using ETAS. The strongest evidence for fluids is the delay between the San Simeon mainshock and a high rate of seismicity in mid to late 2004. This delay can be explained as having been caused by a pore pressure decrease due to an undrained response to the coseismic dilatation, followed by increased pore pressure during the return to equilibrium. Seismicity migration along the fault also suggests fluid involvement, although the migration is too slow to be consistent with pore pressure diffusion. All other evidence, including focal mechanisms and b‐value, is consistent with tectonic earthquakes. This suggests a model where the role of fluid pressure changes is limited to the first seven months, while the fluid pressure equilibrates. The ETAS modeling adequately fits the events after July 2004 when the pore pressure stabilizes. The ETAS models imply that while the probability of a damaging earthquake on the Rinconada fault has approximately doubled due to the San Simeon earthquake, the absolute probability remains low.

Automatic recovery of aftershock sequences at the International Data Centre: from concept to pipeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitov, I.; Bobrov, D.; Rozhkov, M.

2016-12-01

Aftershocks of larger earthquakes represent an important source of information on the distribution and evolution of stresses and deformations in pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic phases. For the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Organization (CTBTO) largest aftershocks sequences are also a challenge for automatic and interactive processing. The highest rate of events recorded by two and more seismic stations of the International Monitoring System from a relatively small aftershock area may reach hundreds per hour (e.g. Sumatra 2004 and Tohoku 2011). Moreover, there are thousands of reflected/refracted phases per hour with azimuth and slowness within the uncertainty limits of the first P-waves. Misassociation of these later phases, both regular and site specific, as the first P-wave results in creation of numerous wrong event hypotheses in automatic IDC pipeline. In turn, interactive review of such wrong hypotheses is direct waste of analysts' resources. Waveform cross correlation (WCC) is a powerful tool to separate coda phases from actual P-wave arrivals and to fully utilize the repeat character of waveforms generated by events close in space. Array seismic stations of the IMS enhance the performance of the WCC in two important aspects - they reduce detection threshold and effectively suppress arrivals from all sources except master events. An IDC specific aftershock tool has been developed and merged with standard IDC pipeline. The tool includes several procedures: creation of master events consisting of waveform templates at ten and more IMS stations; cross correlation (CC) of real-time waveforms with these templates, association of arrivals detected at CC-traces in event hypotheses; building events matching IDC quality criteria; and resolution of conflicts between events hypotheses created by neighboring master-events. The final cross correlation standard event lists (XSEL) is a start point of interactive analysis. Since global monitoring of underground nuclear tests is based on historical and synthetic data, each aftershock sequence can be tested for the CTBT violation with big earthquakes as an evasion scenario.

Tectonic Deformation Pattern along the Longmen Shan Fault Zone in Eastern Tibet: Insights from Focal Mechanisms of the Wenchuan and Lushan Earthquake Sequences, Southwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, G.; Vallage, A.; Klinger, Y.; Long, F.; Wang, S.

2017-12-01

760 ML≥3.5 aftershocks of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the 2013 Lushan mainshock and its 87 ML≥3.5 aftershocks were selected to obtain focal mechanism solutions from CAP waveform inversion method (Zhu and Helmberger, 1996), along with strain rosette (Amelung and King, 1997) and Areal strain (As) (Vallage et al., 2014), we aimed to analyze the tectonic deformation pattern along the Longmen Shan (LMS) fault zone, southwestern China. The As values show that 93% compressional earthquakes for the Lushan sequence are of pure thrust for the southern segment of the LMS fault zone, while only 50% compressional and nearly 40% of strike-slip and oblique-thrust events for the Wenchuan sequence reflect the strike-slip component increase on the central-northern segment of the LMS fault zone, meaning many different faults responsible for the Wenchuan aftershock activity. The strain rosettes with purely NW-trending compressional white lobe for the entire 87 aftershocks and 4 different classes of magnitudes are very similar to that of the Lushan mainshock. We infer that the geological structures for the southern segment are of thrust faulting under NW compressional deformation. The strain rosettes exhibit self-similarity in terms of orientation and shape for all classes, reflecting that the deformation pattern of the southern segment is independent with earthquake size, and suggesting that each class is representative of the overall deformation for the southern segment. We obtained EW-oriented pure compressional strain rosette of the entire 760 aftershocks and NW-oriented white lobe with small NE-oriented black lobe of the Wenchuan mainshock, and this difference may reflect different tectonic deformation pattern during the co-seismic and post-seismic stages. The deformation segmentation along the Wenchuan coseismic surface rupture is also evidenced from the different orientation of strain rosettes, i.e., NW for the southern area, NE for the central and NNW for the northern parts. The above inferences indicate a very complicated tectonic deformation pattern related to the complex geological structure. The segment of the northern aftershock area without ruptures behaves an oblique compressional deformation.

Rupture processes of the 2013-2014 Minab earthquake sequence, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kintner, Jonas A.; Ammon, Charles J.; Cleveland, K. Michael; Herman, Matthew

2018-06-01

We constrain epicentroid locations, magnitudes and depths of moderate-magnitude earthquakes in the 2013-2014 Minab sequence using surface-wave cross-correlations, surface-wave spectra and teleseismic body-wave modelling. We estimate precise relative locations of 54 Mw ≥ 3.8 earthquakes using 48 409 teleseismic, intermediate-period Rayleigh and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements. To reduce significant regional biases in our relative locations, we shift the relative locations to align the Mw 6.2 main-shock centroid to a location derived from an independent InSAR fault model. Our relocations suggest that the events lie along a roughly east-west trend that is consistent with the faulting geometry in the GCMT catalogue. The results support previous studies that suggest the sequence consists of left-lateral strain release, but better defines the main-shock fault length and shows that most of the Mw ≥ 5.0 aftershocks occurred on one or two similarly oriented structures. We also show that aftershock activity migrated westwards along strike, away from the main shock, suggesting that Coulomb stress transfer played a role in the fault failure. We estimate the magnitudes of the relocated events using surface-wave cross-correlation amplitudes and find good agreement with the GCMT moment magnitudes for the larger events and underestimation of small-event size by catalogue MS. In addition to clarifying details of the Minab sequence, the results demonstrate that even in tectonically complex regions, relative relocation using teleseismic surface waves greatly improves the precision of relative earthquake epicentroid locations and can facilitate detailed tectonic analyses of remote earthquake sequences.

Systematic Study of Foreshocks and Triggered Earthquakes During the 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Deng, S.; Castro, R. R.

2015-12-01

The 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake occurred southwest of the Pacific-North America plate boundary in north Baja California. It was preceded by an intensive foreshock sequence, and was followed by numerous aftershocks both on and off the mainshock rupture zone, hence providing us a great opportunity to study the physical mechanisms of foreshock and aftershock triggering. In our previously published work (Meng and Peng, GJI, 2014), we focused on the seismicity rate changes around the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) and along the San Jacinto Fault (SJF) following the mainshock. Based on a recently developed matched filter technique, we were able to detect up to 20 times more events than listed in the SCSN catalog. We found that the seismicity rate near SSGF and SJF both experienced significant increase immediately following the mainshock. However, the seismicity rate near SSGF, where static Coulomb stress decreased, dropped below the pre-mainshock level after ~50 days. On the other hand, the seismicity rate near SJF, where static Coulomb stress increased, remained high till the end of our detecting time window. Such pattern indicates that both static and dynamic triggering may coexist, but dominate in different time scales. Motivated by this success, we shift our focus to the foreshock and aftershock sequence of the El Mayor-Cucapah event. We utilize available seismic stations immediately north to US-Mexico boarder and a few stations within Mexico to conduct a similar detection ~40 days before to 40 days after the mainshock. We aim to obtain a complete foreshock sequence and investigate its spatio-temporal evolutions before the mainshock. Moreover, we plan to study similar patterns for aftershocks and the corresponding triggering mechanisms. Updated results will be presented at the meeting.

3D P-Wave Velocity Structure of the Crust and Relocation of Earthquakes in 21 the Lushan Source Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, X.; Wang, X.; Zhang, W.

2014-12-01

The double difference seismic tomography method is applied to the absolute first arrival P wave arrival times and high quality relative P arrival times of the Lushan seismic sequence to determine the detailed crustal 3D P wave velocity structure and the hypocenter parameters in the Lushan seismic area. The results show that the Lushan mainshock locates at 30.28 N, 103.98 E, with the depth of 16.38 km. The leading edge of aftershock in the northeast of mainshock present a spade with a steep dip angle, the aftershocks' extended length is about 12 km. In the southwest of the Lushan mainshock, the leading edge of aftershock in low velocity zone slope gently, the aftershocks' extended length is about 23 km. The P wave velocity structure of the Lushan seismic area shows obviously lateral heterogeneity. The P wave velocity anomalies represent close relationship with topographic relief and geological structure. In Baoxing area the complex rocks correspond obvious high-velocity anomalies extending down to 15 km depth，while the Cenozoic rocks are correlated with low-velocity anomalies. Our high-resolution tomographic model not only displays the general features contained in the previous models, but also reveals some new features. An obvious high-velocity anomaly is visible in Daxing area. The high-velocity anomalies beneath Baoxing and Daxing connect each other in 10 km depth, which makes the contrast between high and low velocity anomalies more sharp. Above 20 km depth the velocity structure in southwest and northeast segment of the mainshock shows a big difference: low-velocity anomalies are dominated the southwest segment, while high-velocity anomalies rule the northeast segment. The Lushan mainshock locates at the leading edge of a low-velocity anomaly surrounded by the Baoxing and Daxing high-velocity anomalies. The Lushan aftershocks in southwest are distributed in low-velocity anomalies or the transition belt: the footwall represents low-velocity anomalies, while the hanging wall shows high-velocity anomalies. The northeastern aftershocks are distributed at the boundary between high-velocity anomalies in Baoxing and Daxing area. The main seismogenic layer dips to northwest.

Continuous forearc extension following the 2010 Maule megathrust earthquake: InSAR and seismic observations and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bie, L.; Rietbrock, A.; Agurto-Detzel, H.

2017-12-01

The forearc region in subduction zones deforms in response to relative movement on the plate interface throughout the earthquake cycle. Megathrust earthquakes may alter the stress field in the forearc areas from compression to extension, resulting in normal faulting earthquakes. Recent cases include the 2011 Iwaki sequence following the Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, and 2010 Pichilemu sequence after the Maule earthquake in central Chile. Given the closeness of these normal fault events to residential areas, and their shallow depth, they may pose equivalent, if not higher, seismic risk in comparison to earthquakes on the megathrust. Here, we focus on the 2010 Pichilemu sequence following the Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake in central Chile, where the Nazca Plate subducts beneath the South American Plate. Previous studies have clearly delineated the Pichilemu normal fault structure. However, it is not clear whether the Pichilemu events fully released the extensional stress exerted by the Maule mainshock, or the forearc area is still controlled by extensional stress. A 3 months displacement time-series, constructed by radar satellite images, clearly shows continuous aseismic deformation along the Pichilemu fault. Kinematic inversion reveals peak afterslip of 25 cm at shallow depth, equivalent to a Mw 5.4 earthquake. We identified a Mw 5.3 earthquake 2 months after the Pichilemu sequence from both geodetic and seismic observations. Nonlinear inversion from geodetic data suggests that this event ruptured a normal fault conjugate to the Pichilemu fault, at a depth of 4.5 km, consistent with the result obtained from independent moment tensor inversion. We relocated aftershocks in the Pichilemu area using relative arrivals time and a 3D velocity model. The spatial correlation between geodetic deformation and aftershocks reveals three additional areas which may have experienced aseismic slip at depth. Both geodetic displacement and aftershock distribution show a conjugated L-shape feature. This pattern coincides with weak zones depicted by high vp/vs and low vs in the upper crust of this region, suggesting fluid control of seismic and aseismic activities in the Pichilemu area.

Low-angle normal faulting in the Basin and Range-Colorado Plateau transition zone during the January 3, 2011 Circleville, UT earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gammans, Christine Naomi Louise

On January 3, 2011, an Mw 4.5 earthquake occurred in the Tushar Mountains near Circleville, Utah (38.248°N, -112.329°W, 7.75 km depth, and origin time of 12:06:36.58). The Tushar Mountains are located in the transition zone between the stable Colorado Plateau (CP) to the east and the deforming Basin and Range (BR) province to the west. In this area, seismicity associated with the Intermountain Seismic Belt is relatively common. The University of Utah Seismograph Stations (UUSS) detected and located 97 aftershocks in the 33 weeks following the mainshock. On January 6, UUSS installed a portable station in the source region. Using three aftershocks recorded by the portable station as master events, including the largest (Mw 3.8), we relocated the mainshock/aftershock sequence. These refined locations were used as initial locations for the HypoDD method of Waldhauser and Ellsworth [2001] to produce a second, improved set of relocations. In addition to P- and S-arrival time picks, we used the lag-times from waveform cross-correlations as input to HypoDD. We analyzed the fault geometry apparent in the final locations by comparing them to known moment-tensor focal planes and by applying principal component analysis to measure the degree of planarity and orientation of the sequence as a whole. Additionally, using cross-correlation analysis, we identified aftershocks best suited for an empirical Green's function analysis of the mainshock and a strike-slip aftershock that occurred on January 6. From the events chosen by cross-correlation, we were able to obtain source-time functions that were used to obtain fault dimensions, stress drops, and evidence for or against directivity. Lastly, we determined focal mechanisms for ten of the events using first-motion methods. The results of the combined analyses indicate that the mainshock occurred on a low-angle normal fault and that the entire sequence occurred on at least two different fault planes.

Tectonic implications and seismicity triggering during the 2008 Baluchistan, Pakistan earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, R. B. S.; Gahalaut, V. K.; Chopra, Sumer; Shan, Bin

2012-02-01

A damaging and widely felt moderate earthquake (Mw 6.4) hit the rural, mountainous region of southwestern Pakistan on October 28, 2008. The main shock was followed by another earthquake of identical magnitude (Mw 6.4) on the next day. The spatial distribution of aftershocks and focal mechanism revealed a NW-SE striking rupture with right-lateral strike-slip motion which is sympathetic to the NNW-SSE striking active mapped Urghargai Fault. The occurrence of strike-slip earthquakes suggests that along with the thrust faults, strike slip faults too are present beneath the fold-and-thrust belt of Sulaiman-Kirthar ranges and accommodates some of the relative motion of the Indian and Eurasian plates. To assess the characteristics of this sequence, the statistical parameters like aftershocks temporal decay, b-value of G-R relationship, partitioning of radiated seismic energy due to aftershocks, and spatial fractal dimension (D-value) have been examined. The b-value is estimated as 1.03 ± 0.42 and suggests the tectonic genesis of the sequence and crustal heterogeneity within rock mass. The low p-value of 0.89 ± 0.07 implies slow decay of aftershocks activity which is probably an evidence for low surface heat flow. A value of spatial fractal dimension of 2.08 ± 0.02 indicates random spatial distribution and that the source is a two-dimensional plane filled-up by fractures. The static coseismic Coulomb stress changes due to the foreshock (Mw 5.3) were found to increase stress by more than 0.04 bars at the hypocenter of the main shock, thus promoting the failure. The cumulative coseismic Coulomb stress changes due to the foreshock and mainshocks suggest that most of the aftershocks occurred in the region of increased Coulomb stress, and to the SE to the mainshock rupture.

On rate-state and Coulomb failure models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Beeler, N.; Blanpied, M.

2000-01-01

We examine the predictions of Coulomb failure stress and rate-state frictional models. We study the change in failure time (clock advance) Δt due to stress step perturbations (i.e., coseismic static stress increases) added to "background" stressing at a constant rate (i.e., tectonic loading) at time t0. The predictability of Δt implies a predictable change in seismicity rate r(t)/r0, testable using earthquake catalogs, where r0 is the constant rate resulting from tectonic stressing. Models of r(t)/r0, consistent with general properties of aftershock sequences, must predict an Omori law seismicity decay rate, a sequence duration that is less than a few percent of the mainshock cycle time and a return directly to the background rate. A Coulomb model requires that a fault remains locked during loading, that failure occur instantaneously, and that Δt is independent of t0. These characteristics imply an instantaneous infinite seismicity rate increase of zero duration. Numerical calculations of r(t)/r0 for different state evolution laws show that aftershocks occur on faults extremely close to failure at the mainshock origin time, that these faults must be "Coulomb-like," and that the slip evolution law can be precluded. Real aftershock population characteristics also may constrain rate-state constitutive parameters; a may be lower than laboratory values, the stiffness may be high, and/or normal stress may be lower than lithostatic. We also compare Coulomb and rate-state models theoretically. Rate-state model fault behavior becomes more Coulomb-like as constitutive parameter a decreases relative to parameter b. This is because the slip initially decelerates, representing an initial healing of fault contacts. The deceleration is more pronounced for smaller a, more closely simulating a locked fault. Even when the rate-state Δt has Coulomb characteristics, its magnitude may differ by some constant dependent on b. In this case, a rate-state model behaves like a modified Coulomb failure model in which the failure stress threshold is lowered due to weakening, increasing the clock advance. The deviation from a non-Coulomb response also depends on the loading rate, elastic stiffness, initial conditions, and assumptions about how state evolves.

Decay of aftershock density with distance indicates triggering by dynamic stress

USGS Publications Warehouse

Felzer, K.R.; Brodsky, E.E.

2006-01-01

The majority of earthquakes are aftershocks, yet aftershock physics is not well understood. Many studies suggest that static stress changes trigger aftershocks, but recent work suggests that shaking (dynamic stresses) may also play a role. Here we measure the decay of aftershocks as a function of distance from magnitude 2-6 mainshocks in order to clarify the aftershock triggering process. We find that for short times after the mainshock, when low background seismicity rates allow for good aftershock detection, the decay is well fitted by a single inverse power law over distances of 0.2-50 km. The consistency of the trend indicates that the same triggering mechanism is working over the entire range. As static stress changes at the more distant aftershocks are negligible, this suggests that dynamic stresses may be triggering all of these aftershocks. We infer that the observed aftershock density is consistent with the probability of triggering aftershocks being nearly proportional to seismic wave amplitude. The data are not fitted well by models that combine static stress change with the evolution of frictionally locked faults. ?? 2006 Nature Publishing Group.

Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma, USA: links between wastewater injection and the 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keranen, Katie M.; Savage, Heather M.; Abers, Geoffrey A.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

2013-01-01

Significant earthquakes are increasingly occurring within the continental interior of the United States, including five of moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 5.0 in 2011 alone. Concurrently, the volume of fluid injected into the subsurface related to the production of unconventional resources continues to rise. Here we identify the largest earthquake potentially related to injection, an Mw 5.7 earthquake in November 2011 in Oklahoma. The earthquake was felt in at least 17 states and caused damage in the epicentral region. It occurred in a sequence, with 2 earthquakes of Mw 5.0 and a prolific sequence of aftershocks. We use the aftershocks to illuminate the faults that ruptured in the sequence, and show that the tip of the initial rupture plane is within ~200 m of active injection wells and within ~1 km of the surface; 30% of early aftershocks occur within the sedimentary section. Subsurface data indicate that fluid was injected into effectively sealed compartments, and we interpret that a net fluid volume increase after 18 yr of injection lowered effective stress on reservoir-bounding faults. Significantly, this case indicates that decades-long lags between the commencement of fluid injection and the onset of induced earthquakes are possible, and modifies our common criteria for fluid-induced events. The progressive rupture of three fault planes in this sequence suggests that stress changes from the initial rupture triggered the successive earthquakes, including one larger than the first.

Application of Subspace Detection to the 6 November 2011 M5.6 Prague, Oklahoma Aftershock Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMahon, N. D.; Benz, H.; Johnson, C. E.; Aster, R. C.; McNamara, D. E.

2015-12-01

Subspace detection is a powerful tool for the identification of small seismic events. Subspace detectors improve upon single-event matched filtering techniques by using multiple orthogonal waveform templates whose linear combinations characterize a range of observed signals from previously identified earthquakes. Subspace detectors running on multiple stations can significantly increasing the number of locatable events, lowering the catalog's magnitude of completeness and thus providing extraordinary detail on the kinematics of the aftershock process. The 6 November 2011 M5.6 earthquake near Prague, Oklahoma is the largest earthquake instrumentally recorded in Oklahoma history and the largest earthquake resultant from deep wastewater injection. A M4.8 foreshock on 5 November 2011 and the M5.6 mainshock triggered tens of thousands of detectable aftershocks along a 20 km splay of the Wilzetta Fault Zone known as the Meeker-Prague fault. In response to this unprecedented earthquake, 21 temporary seismic stations were deployed surrounding the seismic activity. We utilized a catalog of 767 previously located aftershocks to construct subspace detectors for the 21 temporary and 10 closest permanent seismic stations. Subspace detection identified more than 500,000 new arrival-time observations, which associated into more than 20,000 locatable earthquakes. The associated earthquakes were relocated using the Bayesloc multiple-event locator, resulting in ~7,000 earthquakes with hypocentral uncertainties of less than 500 m. The relocated seismicity provides unique insight into the spatio-temporal evolution of the aftershock sequence along the Wilzetta Fault Zone and its associated structures. We find that the crystalline basement and overlying sedimentary Arbuckle formation accommodate the majority of aftershocks. While we observe aftershocks along the entire 20 km length of the Meeker-Prague fault, the vast majority of earthquakes were confined to a 9 km wide by 9 km deep surface striking N54°E and dipping 83° to the northwest near the junction of the splay with the main Wilzetta fault structure. Relocated seismicity shows off-fault stress-related interaction to distances of 10 km or more from the mainshock, including clustered seismicity to the northwest and southeast of the mainshock.

The 1995 November 22, Mw 7.2 Gulf of Elat earthquake cycle revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baer, Gidon; Funning, Gareth J.; Shamir, Gadi; Wright, Tim J.

2008-12-01

The 1995 November 22, Mw = 7.2 Nuweiba earthquake occurred along one of the left-stepping segments of the Dead Sea Transform (DST) in the Gulf of Elat (Aqaba). It was the largest earthquake along the DST in at least 160 yr. The main shock was preceded by earthquake swarms north and south of its NE-striking rupture since the early 1980s, and was followed by about 6 months of intense aftershock activity, concentrated mainly northwest and southeast of the main rupture. In this study we re-analyse ERS-1 and ERS-2 InSAR data for the period spanning the main shock and 5 post-seismic years. Because the entire rupture was under the Gulf water, surface observations related to the earthquake are limited to distances greater than 5 km away from the rupture zone. Coseismic interferograms were produced for the earthquake +1 week, +4 months and +6 months. Non-linear inversions were carried out for fault geometry and linear inversions were made for slip distribution using an ascending-descending 2-frame data set. The moment calculated from our best-fitting model is in agreement with the seismological moment, but trade-offs exist among several fault parameters. The present model upgrades previous InSAR models of the Nuweiba earthquake, and differs from recent teleseismic waveform inversion results mainly in terms of slip magnitude and distribution. The moment released by post-seismic deformation in the period of 6 months to 2 yr after the Nuweiba earthquake is about 15 per cent of the coseismic moment release. Our models suggest that this deformation can be represented by slip along the lower part of the coseismic rupture. Localised deformation along the Gulf shores NW of the main rupture in the first 6 months after the earthquake is correlated with surface displacements along active Gulf-parallel normal faults and possibly with shallow M > 3.9, D < 6 km aftershocks. The geodetic moment calculated by modelling this deformation is more than an order of magnitude larger than expected for a single M ~ 4 aftershock, but could be a result of a sequence of aftershocks and/or aseismic slip. The major aftershocks and the slip along Gulf-parallel normal faulting NW of the main rupture are associated with positive Coulomb stress changes induced by the main event.

Long-term seismicity of the Reykjanes Ridge (North Atlantic) recorded by a regional hydrophone array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goslin, Jean; Lourenço, Nuno; Dziak, Robert P.; Bohnenstiehl, DelWayne R.; Haxel, Joe; Luis, Joaquim

2005-08-01

The seismicity of the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge was recorded by two hydrophone networks moored in the sound fixing and ranging (SOFAR) channel, on the flanks of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, north and south of the Azores. During its period of operation (05/2002-09/2003), the northern `SIRENA' network, deployed between latitudes 40° 20'N and 50° 30'N, recorded acoustic signals generated by 809 earthquakes on the hotspot-influenced Reykjanes Ridge. This activity was distributed between five spatio-temporal event clusters, each initiated by a moderate-to-large magnitude (4.0-5.6 M) earthquake. The rate of earthquake occurrence within the initial portion of the largest sequence (which began on 2002 October 6) is described adequately by a modified Omori law aftershock model. Although this is consistent with triggering by tectonic processes, none of the Reykjanes Ridge sequences are dominated by a single large-magnitude earthquake, and they appear to be of relatively short duration (0.35-4.5 d) when compared to previously described mid-ocean ridge aftershock sequences. The occurrence of several near-equal magnitude events distributed throughout each sequence is inconsistent with the simple relaxation of mainshock-induced stresses and may reflect the involvement of magmatic or fluid processes along this deep (>2000 m) section of the Reykjanes Ridge.

Characterizing spatial heterogeneity based on the b-value and fractal analyses of the 2015 Nepal earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nampally, Subhadra; Padhy, Simanchal; Dimri, Vijay P.

2018-01-01

The nature of spatial distribution of heterogeneities in the source area of the 2015 Nepal earthquake is characterized based on the seismic b-value and fractal analysis of its aftershocks. The earthquake size distribution of aftershocks gives a b-value of 1.11 ± 0.08, possibly representing the highly heterogeneous and low stress state of the region. The aftershocks exhibit a fractal structure characterized by a spectrum of generalized dimensions, Dq varying from D2 = 1.66 to D22 = 0.11. The existence of a fractal structure suggests that the spatial distribution of aftershocks is not a random phenomenon, but it self-organizes into a critical state, exhibiting a scale-independent structure governed by a power-law scaling, where a small perturbation in stress is sufficient enough to trigger aftershocks. In order to obtain the bias in fractal dimensions resulting from finite data size, we compared the multifractal spectrum for the real data and random simulations. On comparison, we found that the lower limit of bias in D2 is 0.44. The similarity in their multifractal spectra suggests the lack of long-range correlation in the data, with an only weakly multifractal or a monofractal with a single correlation dimension D2 characterizing the data. The minimum number of events required for a multifractal process with an acceptable error is discussed. We also tested for a possible correlation between changes in D2 and energy released during the earthquakes. The values of D2 rise during the two largest earthquakes (M > 7.0) in the sequence. The b- and D2 values are related by D2 = 1.45 b that corresponds to the intermediate to large earthquakes. Our results provide useful constraints on the spatial distribution of b- and D2-values, which are useful for seismic hazard assessment in the aftershock area of a large earthquake.

The January 2014 Northern Cuba Earthquake Sequence - Unusual Location and Unexpected Source Mechanism Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braunmiller, J.; Thompson, G.; McNutt, S. R.

2017-12-01

On 9 January 2014, a magnitude Mw=5.1 earthquake occurred along the Bahamas-Cuba suture at the northern coast of Cuba revealing a surprising seismic hazard source for both Cuba and southern Florida where it was widely felt. Due to its location, the event and its aftershocks (M>3.5) were recorded only at far distances (300+ km) resulting in high-detection thresholds, low location accuracy, and limited source parameter resolution. We use three-component regional seismic data to study the sequence. High-pass filtered seismograms at the closest site in southern Florida are similar in character suggesting a relatively tight event cluster and revealing additional, smaller aftershocks not included in the ANSS or ISC catalogs. Aligning on the P arrival and low-pass filtering (T>10 s) uncovers a surprise polarity flip of the large amplitude surface waves on vertical seismograms for some aftershocks relative to the main shock. We performed regional moment tensor inversions of the main shock and its largest aftershocks using complete three-component seismograms from stations distributed throughout the region to confirm the mechanism changes. Consistent with the GCMT solution, we find an E-W trending normal faulting mechanism for the main event and for one immediate aftershock. Two aftershocks indicate E-W trending reverse faulting with essentially flipped P- and T-axes relative to the normal faulting events (and the same B-axes). Within uncertainties, depths of the two event families are indistinguishable and indicate shallow faulting (<10 km). One intriguing possible interpretation is that both families ruptured the same fault with reverse mechanisms compensating for overshooting. However, activity could also be spatially separated either vertically (with reverse mechanisms possibly below extension) or laterally. The shallow source depth and the 200-km long uplifted chain of islands indicate that larger, shallow and thus potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes could occur just offshore of northern Cuba posing a potential hazard to Florida and the Bahamas.

New insights into fault activation and stress transfer between en echelon thrusts: The 2012 Emilia, Northern Italy, earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheloni, D.; Giuliani, R.; D'Agostino, N.; Mattone, M.; Bonano, M.; Fornaro, G.; Lanari, R.; Reale, D.; Atzori, S.

2016-06-01

Here we present the results of the inversion of a new geodetic data set covering the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence and the following 1 year of postseismic deformation. Modeling of the geodetic data together with the use of a catalog of 3-D relocated aftershocks allows us to constrain the rupture geometries and the coseismic and postseismic slip distributions for the two main events (Mw 6.1 and 6.0) of the sequence and to explore how these thrust events have interacted with each other. Dislocation modeling reveals that the first event ruptured a slip patch located in the center of the Middle Ferrara thrust with up to 1 m of reverse slip. The modeling of the second event, located about 15 km to the southwest, indicates a main patch with up to 60 cm of slip initiated in the deeper and flatter portion of the Mirandola thrust and progressively propagated postseismically toward the top section of the rupture plane, where most of the aftershocks and afterslip occurred. Our results also indicate that between the two main events, a third thrust segment was activated releasing a pulse of aseismic slip equivalent to a Mw 5.8 event. Coulomb stress changes suggest that the aseismic event was likely triggered by the preceding main shock and that the aseismic slip event probably brought the second fault closer to failure. Our findings show significant correlations between static stress changes and seismicity and suggest that stress interaction between earthquakes plays a significant role among continental en echelon thrusts.

Detailed spatiotemporal evolution of microseismicity and repeating earthquakes following the 2012 Mw 7.6 Nicoya earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Dongdong; Walter, Jacob I.; Meng, Xiaofeng; Hobbs, Tiegan E.; Peng, Zhigang; Newman, Andrew V.; Schwartz, Susan Y.; Protti, Marino

2017-01-01

We apply a waveform matching technique to obtain a detailed earthquake catalog around the rupture zone of the 5 September 2012 moment magnitude 7.6 Nicoya earthquake, with emphasis on its aftershock sequence. Starting from a preliminary catalog, we relocate 7900 events using TomoDD to better quantify their spatiotemporal behavior. Relocated aftershocks are mostly clustered in two groups. The first is immediately above the major coseismic slip patch, partially overlapping with shallow afterslip. The second one is 50 km SE to the main shock nucleation point and near the terminus of coseismic rupture, in a zone that exhibited little resolvable afterslip. Using the relocated events as templates, we scan through the continuous recording from 29 June 2012 to 30 December 2012, detecting approximately 17 times more than template events. We find 190 aftershocks in the first half hour following the main shock, mostly along the plate interface. Later events become more scattered in location, showing moderate expansion in both along-trench and downdip directions. From the detected catalog we identify 53 repeating aftershock clusters with mean cross-correlation values larger than 0.9, and indistinguishably intracluster event locations, suggesting slip on the same fault patch. Most repeating clusters occurred within the first major aftershock group. Very few repeating clusters were found in the aftershock grouping along the southern edge of the Peninsula, which is not associated with substantial afterslip. Our observations suggest that loading from nearby afterslip along the plate interface drives spatiotemporal evolution of aftershocks just above the main shock rupture patch, while aftershocks in the SE group are to the SE of the observed updip afterslip and poorly constrained.

Tomographic models and seismotectonics of the Reggio Emilia region, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciaccio, M. G.; Chiarabba, C.

2002-02-01

The aim of this study is to define the Vp and Vp/Vs structure of the fault zone ruptured by the M L 5.1 earthquake of October 15, 1996 which occurred near Reggio Emilia (central-northern Italy). A 1-month-long seismic sequence followed the mainshock and occurred in a small region along the outer border of the northern Apenninic belt, at depth ranging between 10 and 17 km. P- and S-wave arrival times from 304 aftershocks recorded by two local dense seismic arrays installed in the epicentral region have been inverted to obtain one- and three-dimensional velocity models by using state of the art local earthquake tomographic techniques. Velocity models and aftershock relocation help us to infer the seismotectonic of the region. Earthquakes originated along a NW-dipping backthrust of a NE-trending main thrust, composing the western part of the broad Ferrara Arc. A main high Vp and high Vp/Vs region delineates a pop-up structure in the center of the area. The high Vp/Vs within the pop-up structure supports the presence of a zone with increased pore pressure. The hypocentral depth of both mainshock and aftershocks is greater than those usually found for the main seismogenic regions of the Apenninic belt. P-wave velocity values in the seismogenic area, obtained by tomography, are compatible with rocks of the Mesozoic cover and suggest that seismicity occurred within the Mesozoic units stack at present by compressional tectonics.

Kinematic Rupture Process of the 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) Earthquake Sequence from Joint Inversion of Teleseismic, hr-GPS, Strong-Ground Motion, InSAR interferograms and pixel offsets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, H.; Simons, M.; Jiang, J.; Fielding, E. J.; Owen, S. E.; Moore, A. W.; Riel, B. V.; Polet, J.; Duputel, Z.; Samsonov, S. V.; Avouac, J. P.

2015-12-01

The April 2015 Gorkha, Nepal (Mw 7.8) earthquake ruptured the front of Himalaya thrust belt, causing more than 9,000 fatalities. 17 days after the main event, a large aftershock (Mw 7.2) ruptured to down-dip and east of the main rupture area. To investigate the kinematic rupture process of this earthquake sequence, we explored linear and non-linear inversion techniques using a variety of datasets including teleseismic, high rate and conventional GPS, InSAR interferograms and pixel-offsets. InSAR interferograms from ALOS-2, RADARSAT-2 and Sentinel-1a satellites are used in the joint inversion. The main event is characterized by unilateral rupture extending along strike approximately 70 km to the southeast and 40 km along dip direction. The rupture velocity is well resolved to be lie between 2.8 and 3.0 km/s, which is consistent with back-projection results. An emergent initial phase is observed in teleseismic body wave records, which is consistent with a narrow area of rupture initiation near the hypocenter. The rupture mode of the main event is pulse like. The aftershock ruptured down-dip to the northeast of the main event rupture area. The aftershock rupture area is compact and contained within 40 km of its hypocenter. In contrast to the main event, teleseismic body wave records of the aftershock suggest an abrupt initial phase, which is consistent with a crack like rupture mode. The locations of most of the aftershocks (small and large) surround the rupture area of the main shock with little, if any, spatial overlap.

Iterative Strategies for Aftershock Classification in Automatic Seismic Processing Pipelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbons, Steven J.; Kværna, Tormod; Harris, David B.; Dodge, Douglas A.

2016-04-01

Aftershock sequences following very large earthquakes present enormous challenges to near-realtime generation of seismic bulletins. The increase in analyst resources needed to relocate an inflated number of events is compounded by failures of phase association algorithms and a significant deterioration in the quality of underlying fully automatic event bulletins. Current processing pipelines were designed a generation ago and, due to computational limitations of the time, are usually limited to single passes over the raw data. With current processing capability, multiple passes over the data are feasible. Processing the raw data at each station currently generates parametric data streams which are then scanned by a phase association algorithm to form event hypotheses. We consider the scenario where a large earthquake has occurred and propose to define a region of likely aftershock activity in which events are detected and accurately located using a separate specially targeted semi-automatic process. This effort may focus on so-called pattern detectors, but here we demonstrate a more general grid search algorithm which may cover wider source regions without requiring waveform similarity. Given many well-located aftershocks within our source region, we may remove all associated phases from the original detection lists prior to a new iteration of the phase association algorithm. We provide a proof-of-concept example for the 2015 Gorkha sequence, Nepal, recorded on seismic arrays of the International Monitoring System. Even with very conservative conditions for defining event hypotheses within the aftershock source region, we can automatically remove over half of the original detections which could have been generated by Nepal earthquakes and reduce the likelihood of false associations and spurious event hypotheses. Further reductions in the number of detections in the parametric data streams are likely using correlation and subspace detectors and/or empirical matched field processing.

Seismic constraints and coulomb stress changes of a blind thrust fault system, 2: Northridge, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stein, Ross S.; Lin, Jian

2006-01-01

We review seismicity, surface faulting, and Coulomb stress changes associated with the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake. All of the observed surface faulting is shallow, extending meters to tens of meters below the surface. Relocated aftershocks reveal no seismicity shallower than 2 km depth. Although many of the aftershocks lie along the thrust fault and its up-dip extension, there are also a significant number of aftershocks in the core of the gentle anticline above the thrust, and elsewhere on the up-thrown block. These aftershocks may be associated with secondary ramp thrusts or flexural slip faults at a depth of 2-4 km. The geological structures typically associated with a blind thrust fault, such as anticlinal uplift and an associated syncline, are obscured and complicated by surface thrust faults associated with the San Fernando fault that overly the Northridge structures. Thus the relationship of the geological structure and topography to the underlying thrust fault is much more complex for Northridge than it is for the 1983 Coalinga, California, earthquake. We show from a Coulomb stress analysis that secondary surface faulting, diffuse aftershocks, and triggered sequences of moderate-sized mainshocks, are expected features of moderate-sized blind thrust earthquakes.

Analysis of November 3, 2010 Kraljevo Earthquake (Mw=5.4) and Its Aftershock Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knezevic Antonijevic, S.; Arroucau, P.; Vlahovic, G.

2011-12-01

A Mw=5.4 earthquake occurred on November 3, 2010 near the City of Kraljevo, Serbia (lat. 43.765 N, long. 20.713 E) and was followed by a sequence of more than 650 aftershocks with magnitude greater than 1.0. Despite the moderate magnitude of the event, two people were killed, many other were injured, and the total damage to the city is estimated to more than 150 million dollars. Changes in ground water circulation, liquefaction features and rockfalls have also been reported in some places. The earthquake occurred on the southern rim of the Pannonian Basin, in SE-NW-trending Čačak-Kraljevo Basin, also known as West Morava graben. This basin was formed by activation of several deep and secondary shallower faults during Lower Miocene and represents the largest of the intradinaric depressions. Depths proposed by different agencies for the mainshock range between 2 and 30 km. Moment tensor solutions show a mostly strike-slip component on an EW or NS trending fault, with either normal or reverse component depending on the solutions. In order to better characterize the location and source characteristics of that earthquake, we obtained data from seismological institutions of Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Greece, Albania, Romania and Italy and we manually picked P and S wave arrival times and first motion polarities on the available seismograms for the entire mainshock-aftershock sequence. More than 100 events were precisely relocated and focal mechanisms were determined in the best cases. Our results confirm that Kraljevo earthquake probably involved the activation in strike-slip regime of an EW-trending fault located in the northern rim of the West Morava Graben, while the seismicity of the past decades was mostly confined to the southern rim of that basin. Key words: Seismotectonic, Balkan region, Serbia, Čačak-Kraljevo Basin, aftershock sequence, earthquake location, focal mechanism

Complex rupture process of the Mw 7.8, 2016, Kaikoura earthquake, New Zealand, and its aftershock sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cesca, S.; Zhang, Y.; Mouslopoulou, V.; Wang, R.; Saul, J.; Savage, M.; Heimann, S.; Kufner, S.-K.; Oncken, O.; Dahm, T.

2017-11-01

The M7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake that struck the northeastern South Island, New Zealand, on November 14, 2016 (local time), is one of the largest ever instrumentally recorded earthquakes in New Zealand. It occurred at the southern termination of the Hikurangi subduction margin, where the subducting Pacific Plate transitions into the dextral Alpine transform fault. The earthquake produced significant distributed uplift along the north-eastern part of the South Island, reaching a peak amplitude of ∼8 m, which was accompanied by large (≥10 m) horizontal coseismic displacements at the ground surface along discrete active faults. The seismic waveforms' expression of the main shock indicate a complex rupture process. Early automated centroid moment tensor solutions indicated a strong non-double-couple term, which supports a complex rupture involving multiple faults. The hypocentral distribution of aftershocks, which appears diffuse over a broad region, clusters spatially along lineaments with different orientations. A key question of global interest is to shed light on the mechanism with which such a complex rupture occurred, and whether the underlying plate-interface was involved in the rupture. The consequences for seismic hazard of such a distributed, shallow faulting is important to be assessed. We perform a broad seismological analysis, combining regional and teleseismic seismograms, GPS and InSAR, to determine the rupture process of the main shock and moment tensors of 118 aftershocks down to Mw 4.2. The joint interpretation of the main rupture and aftershock sequence allow reconstruction of the geometry, and suggests sequential activation and slip distribution on at least three major active fault domains. We find that the rupture nucleated as a weak strike-slip event along the Humps Fault, which progressively propagated northward onto a shallow reverse fault, where most of the seismic moment was released, before it triggered slip on a second set of strike-slip faults at the northern end of the rupture. The northern and southern strike-slip fault domains have the same orientation but are spatially separated by >15 km. In our model, the low angle splay thrust fault is located above the slab and connects the strike-slip faults kinematically. During the aftershock phase, the entire fault system remained active.

Contribution to the assessment of the imminent seismic hazard: Geophysical, statistical (and more) challenges in the territory of Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adamaki, Angeliki K.; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria E.; Karakostas, Vassilis G.; Tsaklidis, George M.

2013-04-01

The necessity of the imminent seismic hazard assessment stems from a strong social component which is the outcome of the need of people to inquire more in order to understand nature exhaustively and not partially, either to satisfy their inner curiosity or in favor of their self preservation instinct against the physical phenomena that the human kind cannot control. Choosing this path to follow, many seismologists have focused on forecasting the temporal and spatial distribution of earthquakes in short time scales. The possibility of knowing with a degree of certainty the way an earthquake sequence evolves proves to be an important object of research. Being more specific, the present work summarizes applications of seismicity and statistical models on seismic catalogues of areas that are specified by their tectonic structures and their past seismicity, providing information on the temporal and spatial evolution of local seismic activity, which can point out seismicity rate "irregularities" or changes as precursors of strong events, either in case of a main shock or a strong aftershock. In order to study these rate changes both preceding and following a strong earthquake, seismicity models are applied in order to estimate the Coulomb stress changes resulting from the occurrence of a strong earthquake and their results are combined with the application of a Restricted Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model. There are many active tectonic structures in the territory of Greece that are related with the occurrence of strong earthquakes, especially near populated areas, and the aim of this work is to contribute to the assessment of the imminent seismic hazard by applying the aforementioned models and techniques and studying the temporal evolution of several seismic sequences that occurred in the Aegean area in the near past.

The Use of Explosion Aftershock Probabilities for Planning and Deployment of Seismic Aftershock Monitoring System for an On-site Inspection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labak, P.; Ford, S. R.; Sweeney, J. J.; Smith, A. T.; Spivak, A.

2011-12-01

One of four elements of CTBT verification regime is On-site inspection (OSI). Since the sole purpose of an OSI shall be to clarify whether a nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion has been carried out, inspection activities can be conducted and techniques used in order to collect facts to support findings provided in inspection reports. Passive seismological monitoring, realized by the seismic aftershock monitoring (SAMS) is one of the treaty allowed techniques during an OSI. Effective planning and deployment of SAMS during the early stages of an OSI is required due to the nature of possible events recorded and due to the treaty related constrains on size of inspection area, size of inspection team and length of an inspection. A method, which may help in planning the SAMS deployment is presented. An estimate of aftershock activity due to a theoretical underground nuclear explosion is produced using a simple aftershock rate model (Ford and Walter, 2010). The model is developed with data from the Nevada Test Site and Semipalatinsk Test Site, which we take to represent soft- and hard-rock testing environments, respectively. Estimates of expected magnitude and number of aftershocks are calculated using the models for different testing and inspection scenarios. These estimates can help to plan the SAMS deployment for an OSI by giving a probabilistic assessment of potential aftershocks in the Inspection Area (IA). The aftershock assessment combined with an estimate of the background seismicity in the IA and an empirically-derived map of threshold magnitude for the SAMS network could aid the OSI team in reporting. We tested the hard-rock model to a scenario similar to the 2008 Integrated Field Exercise 2008 deployment in Kazakhstan and produce an estimate of possible recorded aftershock activity.

Utsu aftershock productivity law explained from geometric operations on the permanent static stress field of mainshocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mignan, Arnaud

2018-03-01

The aftershock productivity law is an exponential function of the form K ∝ exp(αM), with K being the number of aftershocks triggered by a given mainshock of magnitude M and α ≈ ln(10) being the productivity parameter. This law remains empirical in nature although it has also been retrieved in static stress simulations. Here, we parameterize this law using the solid seismicity postulate (SSP), the basis of a geometrical theory of seismicity where seismicity patterns are described by mathematical expressions obtained from geometric operations on a permanent static stress field. We first test the SSP that relates seismicity density to a static stress step function. We show that it yields a power exponent q = 1.96 ± 0.01 for the power-law spatial linear density distribution of aftershocks, once uniform noise is added to the static stress field, in agreement with observations. We then recover the exponential function of the productivity law with a break in scaling obtained between small and large M, with α = 1.5ln(10) and ln(10), respectively, in agreement with results from previous static stress simulations. Possible biases of aftershock selection, proven to exist in epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) simulations, may explain the lack of break in scaling observed in seismicity catalogues. The existence of the theoretical kink, however, remains to be proven. Finally, we describe how to estimate the solid seismicity parameters (activation density δ+, aftershock solid envelope r∗ and background stress amplitude range Δo∗) for large M values.

Sequential combination of multi-source satellite observations for separation of surface deformation associated with serial seismic events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qiang; Xu, Qian; Zhang, Yijun; Yang, Yinghui; Yong, Qi; Liu, Guoxiang; Liu, Xianwen

2018-03-01

Single satellite geodetic technique has weakness for mapping sequence of ground deformation associated with serial seismic events, like InSAR with long revisiting period readily leading to mixed complex deformation signals from multiple events. It challenges the observation capability of single satellite geodetic technique for accurate recognition of individual surface deformation and earthquake model. The rapidly increasing availability of various satellite observations provides good solution for overcoming the issue. In this study, we explore a sequential combination of multiple overlapping datasets from ALOS/PALSAR, ENVISAT/ASAR and GPS observations to separate surface deformation associated with the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki major quake and two strong aftershocks including the Mw 6.6 Iwaki and Mw 5.8 Ibaraki events. We first estimate the fault slip model of major shock with ASAR interferometry and GPS displacements as constraints. Due to the used PALSAR interferogram spanning the period of all the events, we then remove the surface deformation of major shock through forward calculated prediction thus obtaining PALSAR InSAR deformation associated with the two strong aftershocks. The inversion for source parameters of Iwaki aftershock is conducted using the refined PALSAR deformation considering that the higher magnitude Iwaki quake has dominant deformation contribution than the Ibaraki event. After removal of deformation component of Iwaki event, we determine the fault slip distribution of Ibaraki shock using the remained PALSAR InSAR deformation. Finally, the complete source models for the serial seismic events are clearly identified from the sequential combination of multi-source satellite observations, which suggest that the major quake is a predominant mega-thrust rupture, whereas the two aftershocks are normal faulting motion. The estimated seismic moment magnitude for the Tohoku-Oki, Iwaki and Ibaraki evens are Mw 9.0, Mw 6.85 and Mw 6.11, respectively.

The 2008 Mw 6.0 Wells, Nevada Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K.; Depolo, D.; Torrisi, J.; Edwards, N.; Biasi, G.; Slater, D.

2008-12-01

The Mw 6.0 February 21, 2008 (06:16 AM PDT) Wells, Nevada normal faulting earthquake occurred in Town Creek Flat about 8 km northeast of the small community of Wells. A preliminary set of about 1000 aftershock relocations clearly defines a 55-60 degree southeast dipping fault plane. The structure projects to the surface along the southern end of the Snake Range, although no surface offsets have been identified. The earthquake occurred east of the Ruby Mountains and Snake Range west dipping range front faults, possibly on a northern extension of an east dipping normal fault system on the eastern side of the East Humbolt Range. The depth of the mainshock is estimated to be 10.5 km with the aftershock sequence extending to about 15 km. Typical of moderate sized Basin and Range earthquakes, the early aftershock period included several earthquakes of M > 4 and these were felt strongly by the residents of Wells. From the preliminary relocations, the source radius of the mainshock is estimated to be about 4 km, resulting in an estimated displacement of 55 to 83 cm and static stress drop of 72 to 86 bars, depending on the seismic moment estimate used. Aftershock relocations suggest a radial rupture mechanism. Fortunately, the EarthScope USArray network was operating in Nevada at the time of the event and provided unique controls on the mainshock and early aftershock locations. The earthquake occurred in an area of relatively low seismic hazard and the only permanent seismograph in the region was the U.S. National Network broadband station east of the Ruby Mountains south of Wells. The University of Utah and University of Nevada deployed locally recorded strong motion instruments in the Wells area. Also, an 8 station IP telemetered strong motion network, jointly deployed by the U.S. Geological Survey and University of Nevada Reno, provided real-time data for quick high-quality aftershock relocations and ground motion estimates. In addition, the University of Utah established several telemetered analog stations for improved aftershock locations. IP data communications was routed through the Nevada Department of Information Technology microwave communications site north of Wells. The aftershock deployment was not possible without the considerable support of a number of public and private agencies in the Wells area and the Wells community itself. Many unreinforced masonry structures in old-town Wells, dating to the early 1900's, experienced significant damage. There was also damage to homes and businesses within the community, including the local High School, but fortunately there were no serious injuries associated with the earthquake.

Tests of remote aftershock triggering by small mainshocks using Taiwan's earthquake catalog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, W.; Toda, S.

2014-12-01

To understand earthquake interaction and forecast time-dependent seismic hazard, it is essential to evaluate which stress transfer, static or dynamic, plays a major role to trigger aftershocks and subsequent mainshocks. Felzer and Brodsky focused on small mainshocks (2≤M<3) and their aftershocks, and then argued that only dynamic stress change brings earthquake-to-earthquake triggering, whereas Richards-Dingers et al. (2010) claimed that those selected small mainshock-aftershock pairs were not earthquake-to-earthquake triggering but simultaneous occurrence of independent aftershocks following a larger earthquake or during a significant swarm sequence. We test those hypotheses using Taiwan's earthquake catalog by taking the advantage of lacking any larger event and the absence of significant seismic swarm typically seen with active volcano. Using Felzer and Brodsky's method and their standard parameters, we only found 14 mainshock-aftershock pairs occurred within 20 km distance in Taiwan's catalog from 1994 to 2010. Although Taiwan's catalog has similar number of earthquakes as California's, the number of pairs is about 10% of the California catalog. It may indicate the effect of no large earthquakes and no significant seismic swarm in the catalog. To fully understand the properties in the Taiwan's catalog, we loosened the screening parameters to earn more pairs and then found a linear aftershock density with a power law decay of -1.12±0.38 that is very similar to the one in Felzer and Brodsky. However, none of those mainshock-aftershock pairs were associated with a M7 rupture event or M6 events. To find what mechanism controlled the aftershock density triggered by small mainshocks in Taiwan, we randomized earthquake magnitude and location. We then found that those density decay in a short time period is more like a randomized behavior than mainshock-aftershock triggering. Moreover, 5 out of 6 pairs were found in a swarm-like temporal seismicity rate increase. They locate mostly in high geothermal gradient areas, which are probably triggered by a small-scale aseismic process. Thus it rather supports the argument of Richards-Dingers et al. in which dynamic triggering by small mainshock is untenable.

Automatic analysis of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake aftershock sequence.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baillard, C.; Lyon-Caen, H.; Bollinger, L.; Rietbrock, A.; Letort, J.; Adhikari, L. B.

2016-12-01

The Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, that partially ruptured the Main Himalayan Thrust North of Kathmandu on the 25th April 2015, was the largest and most catastrophic earthquake striking Nepal since the great M8.4 1934 earthquake. This mainshock was followed by multiple aftershocks, among them, two notable events that occurred on the 12th May with magnitudes of 7.3 Mw and 6.3 Mw. Due to these recent events it became essential for the authorities and for the scientific community to better evaluate the seismic risk in the region through a detailed analysis of the earthquake catalog, amongst others, the spatio-temporal distribution of the Gorkha aftershock sequence. Here we complement this first study by doing a microseismic study using seismic data coming from the eastern part of the Nepalese Seismological Center network associated to one broadband station in Everest. Our primary goal is to deliver an accurate catalog of the aftershock sequence. Due to the exceptional number of events detected we performed an automatic picking/locating procedure which can be splitted in 4 steps: 1) Coarse picking of the onsets using a classical STA/LTA picker, 2) phase association of picked onsets to detect and declare seismic events, 3) Kurtosis pick refinement around theoretical arrival times to increase picking and location accuracy and, 4) local magnitude calculation based amplitude of waveforms. This procedure is time efficient ( 1 sec/event), reduces considerably the location uncertainties ( 2 to 5 km errors) and increases the number of events detected compared to manual processing. Indeed, the automatic detection rate is 10 times higher than the manual detection rate. By comparing to the USGS catalog we were able to give a new attenuation law to compute local magnitudes in the region. A detailed analysis of the seismicity shows a clear migration toward the east of the region and a sudden decrease of seismicity 100 km east of Kathmandu which may reveal the presence of a tectonic feature acting as a seismic barrier. Comparison of the aftershock distribution with respect to the coseismic slip distribution will be discussed.d.

Coulomb stress change sensitivity due to variability in mainshock source models and receiving fault parameters: A case study of the 2010-2011 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhan, Zhongwen; Jin, Bikai; Wei, Shengji; Graves, Robert W.

2011-01-01

Strong aftershocks following major earthquakes present significant challenges for infrastructure recovery as well as for emergency rescue efforts. A tragic instance of this is the 22 February 2011 Mw 6.3 Christchurch aftershock in New Zealand, which caused more than 100 deaths while the 2010 Mw 7.1 Canterbury mainshock did not cause a single fatality (Figure 1). Therefore, substantial efforts have been directed toward understanding the generation mechanisms of aftershocks as well as mitigating hazards due to aftershocks. Among these efforts are the prediction of strong aftershocks, earthquake early warning, and aftershock probability assessment. Zhang et al. (1999) reported a successful case of strong aftershock prediction with precursory data such as changes in seismicity pattern, variation of b-value, and geomagnetic anomalies. However, official reports of such successful predictions in geophysical journals are extremely rare, implying that deterministic prediction of potentially damaging aftershocks is not necessarily more scientifically feasible than prediction of mainshocks.

Regional crustal structures along several paths in India and its surrounding regions using local P- and S-wave travel times and regional waveforms recorded from the March 28, 1999 Chamoli earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saikia, C. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Kayal, J. R.; Bhattacharya, S. N.; Shukla, A. K.

2001-12-01

The March 28, 1999 Chamoli earthquake (Mw 6.8) in northwest India generated a large sequence of aftershocks (M_ w> 4.0) which were recorded by a temporary network ofshort-period stations deployed by various organizations, namely India Meteorological Department (IMD), Geological Survey of India (GSI), National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI) and Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (WIHG) in India. We inverted the local P- and S-wave arrival times from about 20 local stations jointly for all available aftershocks implementing a technique which optimizes both earthquake locations and crustal velocity model. Of these, seven events were recorded by more than 5 stations locating within 5o of the epicenters withazimuthal gap not greater than 90o. We used these events to compute the station correctionsfor local stations and applied these station corrections to relocate the entire sequence of the Chamoli aftershocks. The relocation vectors which indicate the direction toward which the events would move from the reference locations (in this case the GSI locations) suggest that for the majority of the seismic events they show movement towards the epicentral locations of the mainshock. The new locations of these events also show improvements in the error ellipse measurements. We have also investigated variations in crustal models using regional broadband seismograms from the mainshock recorded by the IMD stations in India (IMD, 2000). Using a crustal model developed earlier by Bhattacharya using surface-wave dispersion for northern India as a starting model, we conducted a systematic analysis of surface-wave dispersion characteristics recorded at these broadband stations. We synthesized f-k seismograms andexamined the relative amplitude of the Pnl waves to the surface waves and their absolutetravel-time differences. We used focal mechanism and depth that were independently determined by modeling teleseismic depth phases, pP and sP, and by modeling regional seismograms recorded by broadband stations of a temporary network of the INDEPTH experiment operated in China near the station LSA. This investigation suggests that data along different paths toward the Indian subcontinent require different thicknesses for the crustal structure to account for varying thicknesses of the sediment of the Gangetic basin. We are currently examining the surface-wave dispersions recorded by stations of the INDEPTH experiment and at HYB in India. We will present results from investigations of these broadband seismograms and comparison of these results with those determined earlier by various investigators using the limited WWSSN seismograms.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock Sequence of the 6 July 2017 M5.8 Lincoln, Montana Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMahon, N. D.; Stickney, M.; Aster, R. C.; Yeck, W.; Martens, H. R.; Benz, H.

2017-12-01

On 6 July 2017, a Mw 5.8 earthquake occurred 11 km southeast of Lincoln, Montana. The event was widely-felt from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (750 km north), Seattle, Washington (800 km west), the Idaho/Utah and Idaho/Nevada borders (550 km south), and Rapid City, South Dakota (750 km east). This is the largest earthquake to occur in the state since the 1959 M 7.3 Hebgen Lake event 250 km to the southeast. In the three weeks following the 6 July 2017 Mw 5.8 main shock, the U.S. Geological Survey and Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology located more than 300 aftershocks. Preliminary observations show most of these aftershocks form a short NNE zone that suggests that the main shock may have slipped on a NNE left-lateral fault. A smaller number of aftershocks extend along a longer WNW-trending zone. These faults are part of the Lewis and Clark line, a prominent zone of Middle Proterozoic to Holocene age strike-slip, dip slip, and oblique slip faulting trending 400 km east-southeast from northern Idaho to east of Helena, Montana, and terminating southeast of this earthquake. We use identified aftershock waveforms as templates to examine the data from 1 June 2017 through 27 July 2017 with cross-correlation techniques on nearby permanent and temporary seismic stations deployed shortly after the mainshock to identify foreshocks and additional small aftershocks. Locating these events allows us to study subsurface geology, map fault structures, and provide insight on the spatial and temporal evolution of the earthquake sequence, which may continue to produce aftershocks for years. Other notable earthquakes in the region include a damaging M 6.6 earthquake 100 km to the south in June 1925, M 6.2 and M 6.0 earthquakes near Helena, Montana in October 1935 that caused significant damage and four fatalities, and a M 5.6 earthquake 170 km to the south in July 2005 that caused minor damage in Dillon and the surrounding region. We hope this work not only allows us to map the involved faults and detail hazards associated with them, but helps to raise awareness in general about the underrepresented hazard associated with intraplate seismicity and the reactivation of older preexisting faults that have few, if any, Quaternary expressions.

Hurricane Irene's Impacts on the Aftershock Sequence of the 2011 Mw5.8 Virginia Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Yang, H.; Allman, S.

2013-12-01

Recent studies have shown that typhoon could trigger shallow slow-slip events in Taiwan. However, it is unclear whether such extreme weather events could affect the occurrence of regular earthquakes as well. A good opportunity to test this hypothesis occurred in 2011 when an Mw 5.8 earthquake struck Louisa County, Virginia. This event ruptured a shallow, reverse fault. Roughly 5 days later, hurricane Irene struck the coast of Norfolk, Virginia, which is near the epicentral region of the Virginia mainshock. Because aftershocks listed in the ANSS catalog were incomplete immediately after the main shock, it is very difficult to find the genuine correlation between the seismicity rate changes and hurricane Irene. Hence, we use a recently developed waveform matched filter technique to scan through the continuous seismic data to detect small aftershocks that are previously unidentified. A mixture of 7 temporary stations from the IRIS Ramp deployment and 8 temporary stations deployed by Virginia Tech is used. The temporary stations were set up between 24 to 72 hours following the main shock around its immediate vicinity, which provides us a unique dataset recording the majority aftershock sequence of an intraplate earthquake. We us 80 aftershocks identified by Chapman [2013] as template events and scan through the continuous data from 23 August 2011 through 10 September 2011. So far, we have detected 704 events using a threshold of 12 times the median absolute deviation (MAD), which is ~25 times more than listed in the ANSS catalog. The aftershock rate generally decayed with time as predicted by the Omori's law. A statistically significant increase of seismicity rate is found when hurricane Irene passed by the epicentral region. A possible explanation is that the atmosphere pressure drop unloaded the surface, which brought the reverse faults closer to failure. However, we also identified similar fluctuations of seismicity rate changes at other times. Hence, it is still possible that the seismicity rate increase during the hurricane Irene's passing by could be by coincidence. We are currently in the process of relocating all the newly detected events and investigate if any aftershock migration pattern might relate to the path of hurricane Irene. If true, it would suggest that extreme weather events such as hurricanes could trigger not only slow-slip events, but also regular earthquakes.

Problems of the active tectonics of the Eastern Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javakhishvili, Z.; Godoladze, T.; Dreger, D. S.; Mikava, D.; Tvaliashvili, A.

2016-12-01

The Black Sea Basin is the part of the Arabian Eurasian Collision zone and important unit for understanding the tectonic process of the region. This complex basin comprises two deep basins, separated by the mid-Black Sea Ridge. The basement of the Black Sea includes areas with oceanic and continental crust. It was formed as a "back-arc" basin over the subduction zone during the closing of the Tethys Ocean. In the past decades the Black Sea has been the subject of intense geological and geophysical studies. Several papers were published about the geological history, tectonics, basement relief and crustal and upper mantle structure of the basin. New tectonic schemes were suggested (e. g. Nikishin et al 2014, Shillington et al. 2008, Starostenko et al. 2004 etc.). Nevertheless, seismicity of the Black Sea is poorly studied due to the lack of seismic network in the coastal area. It is considered, that the eastern basin currently lies in a compressional setting associated with the uplift of the Caucasus and structural development of the Caucasus was closely related to the evolution of the Eastern Black Sea Basin. Analyses of recent sequence of earthquakes in 2012 can provide useful information to understand complex tectonic structure of the Eastern Black Sea region. Right after the earthquake of 2012/12/23, National Seismic monitoring center of Georgia deployed additional 4 stations in the coastal area of the country, close to the epicenter area, to monitor aftershock sequence. Seismic activity in the epicentral area is continuing until now. We have relocated approximately 1200 aftershocks to delineate fault scarf using data from Georgian, Turkish and Russian datacenters. Waveforms of the major events and the aftershocks were inverted for the fault plane solutions of the events. For the inversion were used green's functions, computed using new 1D velocity model of the region. Strike-slip mechanism of the major events of the earthquake sequence indicates extensional features in the Eastern Black Sea Region as well.

Complex faulting in the Quetta Syntaxis: fault source modeling of the October 28, 2008 earthquake sequence in Baluchistan, Pakistan, based on ALOS/PALSAR InSAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usman, Muhammad; Furuya, Masato

2015-09-01

The Quetta Syntaxis in western Baluchistan, Pakistan, is the result of an oroclinal bend of the western mountain belt and serves as a junction for different faults. As this area also lies close to the left-lateral strike-slip Chaman fault, which marks the boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plates, the resulting seismological behavior of this regime is very complex. In the region of the Quetta Syntaxis, close to the fold and thrust belt of the Sulaiman and Kirthar Ranges, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.4 (Mw) occurred on October 28, 2008, which was followed by a doublet on the very next day. Six more shocks associated with these major events then occurred (one foreshock and five aftershocks), with moment magnitudes greater than 4. Numerous researchers have tried to explain the source of this sequence based on seismological, GPS, and Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT)/Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) data. Here, we used Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS)/Phased Array-type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) InSAR data sets from both ascending and descending orbits that allow us to more completely detect the deformation signals around the epicentral region. The results indicated that the shock sequence can be explained by two right-lateral and two left-lateral strike-slip faults that also included reverse slip. The right-lateral faults have a curved geometry. Moreover, whereas previous studies have explained the aftershock crustal deformation with a different fault source, we found that the same left-lateral segment of the conjugate fault was responsible for the aftershocks. We thus confirmed the complex surface deformation signals from the moderate-sized earthquake. Intra-plate crustal bending and shortening often seem to be accommodated as conjugate faulting, without any single preferred fault orientation. We also detected two possible landslide areas along with the crustal deformation pattern.

Constraints on recent earthquake source parameters, fault geometry and aftershock characteristics in Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D. E.; Benz, H.; Herrmann, R. B.; Bergman, E. A.; McMahon, N. D.; Aster, R. C.

2014-12-01

In late 2009, the seismicity of Oklahoma increased dramatically. The largest of these earthquakes was a series of three damaging events (Mw 4.8, 5.6, 4.8) that occurred over a span of four days in November 2011 near the town of Prague in central Oklahoma. Studies suggest that these earthquakes were induced by reactivation of the Wilzetta fault due to the disposal of waste water from hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") and other oil and gas activities. The Wilzetta fault is a northeast trending vertical strike-slip fault that is a well known structural trap for oil and gas. Since the November 2011 Prague sequence, thousands of small to moderate (M2-M4) earthquakes have occurred throughout central Oklahoma. The most active regions are located near the towns of Stillwater and Medford in north-central Oklahoma, and Guthrie, Langston and Jones near Oklahoma City. The USGS, in collaboration with the Oklahoma Geological Survey and the University of Oklahoma, has responded by deploying numerous temporary seismic stations in the region in order to record the vigorous aftershock sequences. In this study we use data from the temporary seismic stations to re-locate all Oklahoma earthquakes in the USGS National Earthquake Information Center catalog using a multiple-event approach known as hypo-centroidal decomposition that locates earthquakes with decreased uncertainty relative to one another. Modeling from this study allows us to constrain the detailed geometry of the reactivated faults, as well as source parameters (focal mechanisms, stress drop, rupture length) for the larger earthquakes. Preliminary results from the November 2011 Prague sequence suggest that subsurface rupture lengths of the largest earthquakes are anomalously long with very low stress drop. We also observe very high Q (~1000 at 1 Hz) that explains the large felt areas and we find relatively low b-value and a rapid decay of aftershocks.

Earthquake Triggering in the September 2017 Mexican Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fielding, E. J.; Gombert, B.; Duputel, Z.; Huang, M. H.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Ampuero, J. P.

2017-12-01

Southern Mexico was struck by four earthquakes with Mw > 6 and numerous smaller earthquakes in September 2017, starting with the 8 September Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake beneath the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. We study whether this M8.2 earthquake triggered the three subsequent large M>6 quakes in southern Mexico to improve understanding of earthquake interactions and time-dependent risk. All four large earthquakes were extensional despite the the subduction of the Cocos plate. The traditional definition of aftershocks: likely an aftershock if it occurs within two rupture lengths of the main shock soon afterwards. Two Mw 6.1 earthquakes, one half an hour after the M8.2 beneath the Tehuantepec gulf and one on 23 September near Ixtepec in Oaxaca, both fit as traditional aftershocks, within 200 km of the main rupture. The 19 September Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake was 600 km away from the M8.2 shock, outside the standard aftershock zone. Geodetic measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and time-series analysis of GPS station data constrain finite fault total slip models for the M8.2, M7.1, and M6.1 Ixtepec earthquakes. The early M6.1 aftershock was too close in time and space to the M8.2 to measure with InSAR or GPS. We analyzed InSAR data from Copernicus Sentinel-1A and -1B satellites and JAXA ALOS-2 satellite. Our preliminary geodetic slip model for the M8.2 quake shows significant slip extended > 150 km NW from the hypocenter, longer than slip in the v1 finite-fault model (FFM) from teleseismic waveforms posted by G. Hayes at USGS NEIC. Our slip model for the M7.1 earthquake is similar to the v2 NEIC FFM. Interferograms for the M6.1 Ixtepec quake confirm the shallow depth in the upper-plate crust and show centroid is about 30 km SW of the NEIC epicenter, a significant NEIC location bias, but consistent with cluster relocations (E. Bergman, pers. comm.) and with Mexican SSN location. Coulomb static stress change calculations by Toda et al. (Temblor.net) from NEIC FFM showed significant positive change at epicenter of Ixtepec quake, but very small change for Puebla quake. Our analysis will update these calculations. We are planning to add seismic waveforms to our inversions to estimate kinematic fault slip evolution models that will enable dynamic stress transfer calculations.

The Seismic Sequence of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales, Ecuador Sarthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leon, S.; Fuenzalida, A.; Bie, L.; Garth, T.; Gonzalez, P. J.; Holt, J.; Rietbrock, A.; Edwards, B.; Regnier, M. M.; Pernoud, M.; Mercerat, E. D.; Perrault, M.; Font, Y.; Alvarado, A. P.; Charvis, P.; Beck, S. L.; Meltzer, A.

2016-12-01

On the 16th April 2016, a Mw 7.8 mega-thrust earthquake occurred in Northern Ecuador, close to the city of Pedernales. The event ruptured an area of 120 x 60 km and was preceded by a Mw 5.0 foreshock, located only 15 km south of the epicentre, and registered 10 minutes before the main event.A few weeks after the main event a large array of instruments was deployed by a collaborative project between the Geophysical Institute of Ecuador (IGEPN), IRIS (USA), Géoazur (France) and the University of Liverpool (UK). This dense seismic network, with more than 70 stations, includes broadband, short period and strong motion instruments and is currently recording the aftershock activity of the earthquake. It is hoped that this data set will give further insights into the structure of the subduction zone mega thrust beneath Ecuador.Using data recorded both on the permanent and the recently deployed network we located and calculated the moment tensor solutions for the foreshock event, and the large aftershocks (M > 5). We analyse the spatial distribution of the seismicity and its relation with the co-seismic slip, estimated by inverting radar satellite interferometry data, and with previous models of inter-seismic coupling (e.g. Chlieh et al., 2014). It is possible to identify two lineations in the aftershock activity located to the north and south of the rupture. Moreover, the geodetic slip model shows that the boundaries of the maximum coseismic slip coincides with the observed lineaments in the aftershocks and with the rupture area of a previous Mw 7.8 event in 1942. This suggests that the features to the north and south may impose a barrier to rupture propagation, creating different segments in the subduction zone beneath Ecuador. In addition, we model the Coulomb stress change caused by the foreshock and mainshock in order to investigate whether this could explain the aftershock distribution and potential earthquake interactions. Previous activity has presented a northward-propagating series of ruptures greater than Mw 7 spaced approximately 20 years apart. An open question is therefore whether the present event is the start of a further series of large magnitude events in northern Ecuador, and/or whether slow slip events/creep south of the rupture have partly accommodated the strain due to subduction.

Source Process of the Mw 5.0 Au Sable Forks, New York, Earthquake Sequence from Local Aftershock Monitoring Network Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, W.; Seeber, L.; Armbruster, J. G.

2002-12-01

On April 20, 2002, a Mw 5 earthquake occurred near the town of Au Sable Forks, northeastern Adirondacks, New York. The quake caused moderate damage (MMI VII) around the epicentral area and it is well recorded by over 50 broadband stations in the distance ranges of 70 to 2000 km in the Eastern North America. Regional broadband waveform data are used to determine source mechanism and focal depth using moment tensor inversion technique. Source mechanism indicates predominantly thrust faulting along 45° dipping fault plane striking due South. The mainshock is followed by at least three strong aftershocks with local magnitude (ML) greater than 3 and about 70 aftershocks are detected and located in the first three months by a 12-station portable seismographic network. The aftershock distribution clearly delineate the mainshock rupture to the westerly dipping fault plane at a depth of 11 to 12 km. Preliminary analysis of the aftershock waveform data indicates that orientation of the P-axis rotated 90° from that of the mainshock, suggesting a complex source process of the earthquake sequence. We achieved an important milestone in monitoring earthquakes and evaluating their hazards through rapid cross-border (Canada-US) and cross-regional (Central US-Northeastern US) collaborative efforts. Hence, staff at Instrument Software Technology, Inc. near the epicentral area joined Lamont-Doherty staff and deployed the first portable station in the epicentral area; CERI dispatched two of their technical staff to the epicentral area with four accelerometers and a broadband seismograph; the IRIS/PASSCAL facility shipped three digital seismographs and ancillary equipment within one day of the request; the POLARIS Consortium, Canada sent a field crew of three with a near real-time, satellite telemetry based earthquake monitoring system. The Polaris station, KSVO, powered by a solar panel and batteries, was already transmitting data to the central Hub in London, Ontario, Canada within a day after the field crew arrived in the Au Sable Forks area. This collaboration allowed us to maximize the scarce resources available for monitoring this damaging earthquake and its aftershocks in the Northeastern U.S.

Investigation of the high-frequency attenuation parameter, κ (kappa), from aftershocks of the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neighbors, Corrie; Liao, E. J.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Funning, G. J.; Chung, A. I.; Lawrence, J. F.; Christensen, C. M.; Miller, M.; Belmonte, A.; Sepulveda, H. H. Andrés

2014-01-01

The Bío Bío region of Chile experienced a vigorous aftershock sequence following the 2010 February 27 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake. The immediate aftershock sequence was captured by two temporary seismic deployments: the Quake Catcher Network Rapid Aftershock Mobilization Program (QCN RAMP) and the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology CHile Aftershock Mobilization Program (IRIS CHAMP). Here, we use moderate to large aftershocks (ML ≥ 4.0) occurring between 2010 March 1 and June 30 recorded by QCN RAMP and IRIS CHAMP stations to determine the spectral decay parameter, kappa (κ). First, we compare waveforms and κ estimates from the lower-resolution QCN stations to the IRIS CHAMP stations to ensure the QCN data are of sufficient quality. We find that QCN stations provide reasonable estimates of κ in comparison to traditional seismic sensors and provide valuable additional observations of local ground motion variation. Using data from both deployments, we investigate the variation in κ for the region to determine if κ is influenced primarily by local geological structure, path attenuation, or source properties (e.g. magnitude, mechanism and depth). Estimates of κ for the Bío Bío region range from 0.0022 to 0.0704 s with a mean of 0.0295 s and are in good agreement with κ values previously reported for similar tectonic environments. κ correlates with epicentral distance and, to a lesser degree, with source magnitude. We find little to no correlation between the site kappa, κ0, and mapped geology, although we were only able to compare the data to a low-resolution map of surficial geology. These results support an increasing number of studies that suggest κobservations can be attributed to a combination of source, path and site properties; additionally, measured κ are often highly scattered making it difficult to separate the contribution from each of these factors. Thus, our results suggest that contributions from the site, path and source should be carefully considered when interpreting κ values.

Making Initial Earthquake Catalogs from a Temporary Seismic Network for Monitoring Aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J.; Kang, T. S.; Kim, K. H.; Rhie, J.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

The ML 5.1 foreshock and the ML 5.8 mainshock earthquakes occurred consecutively in Gyeongju, the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula, on September 12, 2016. A temporary seismic network was installed quickly to observe aftershocks followed this mainshock event in the vicinity of the epicenter. The network was consisting of 27 stations equipped with broadband sensors initially and it has been operated in off-line system which required a periodic manual backup of the recorded data. We detected P-triggers and associated events by using SeisComP3 to make an initial catalogue of aftershock events rapidly. If necessary, manual picking was performed to obtain precise P- and S-arrival times from a module, scolv, included in SeisComP3. For cross-checking of reliable identification of seismic phases, a seismic python package, PhasePApy, was applied in parallel with SeisComP3. Then we get the precise relocated coordinates and depth of the aftershock events using the velellipse algorithm. The resulting dataset comprises of an initial aftershock catalog. The catalog will provide the means to address some important questions and issues on seismogenesis in this intraplate seismicity region including the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake sequence and to improve seismic hazard estimation of the region.

The 20 April 2013 Lushan, Sichuan, mainshock, and its aftershock sequence: tectonic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Jianshe; Zhang, Guangwei; Xie, Furen

2014-02-01

Using the double-difference relocation algorithm, we relocated the 20 April 2013 Lushan, Sichuan, earthquake ( M S 7.0), and its 4,567 aftershocks recorded during the period between 20 April and May 3, 2013. Our results showed that most aftershocks are relocated between 10 and 20 km depths, but some large aftershocks were relocated around 30 km depth and small events extended upward near the surface. Vertical cross sections illustrate a shovel-shaped fault plane with a variable dip angle from the southwest to northeast along the fault. Furthermore, the dip angle of the fault plane is smaller around the mainshock than that in the surrounding areas along the fault. These results suggest that it may be easy to generate the strong earthquake in the place having a small dip angle of the fault, which is somewhat similar to the genesis of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The Lushan mainshock is underlain by the seismically anomalous layers with low-VP, low-VS, and high-Poisson's ratio anomalies, possibly suggesting that the fluid-filled fractured rock matrices might significantly reduce the effective normal stress on the fault plane to bring the brittle failure. The seismic gap between Lushan and Wenchuan aftershocks is suspected to be vulnerable to future seismic risks at greater depths, if any.

Rapid Estimates of Rupture Extent for Large Earthquakes Using Aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.; Kremer, M.

2009-12-01

The spatial distribution of aftershocks is closely linked to the rupture extent of the mainshock that preceded them and a rapid analysis of aftershock patterns therefore has potential for use in near real-time estimates of earthquake impact. The correlation between aftershocks and slip distribution has frequently been used to estimate the fault dimensions of large historic earthquakes for which no, or insufficient, waveform data is available. With the advent of earthquake inversions that use seismic waveforms and geodetic data to constrain the slip distribution, the study of aftershocks has recently been largely focused on enhancing our understanding of the underlying mechanisms in a broader earthquake mechanics/dynamics framework. However, in a near real-time earthquake monitoring environment, in which aftershocks of large earthquakes are routinely detected and located, these data may also be effective in determining a fast estimate of the mainshock rupture area, which would aid in the rapid assessment of the impact of the earthquake. We have analyzed a considerable number of large recent earthquakes and their aftershock sequences and have developed an effective algorithm that determines the rupture extent of a mainshock from its aftershock distribution, in a fully automatic manner. The algorithm automatically removes outliers by spatial binning, and subsequently determines the best fitting “strike” of the rupture and its length by projecting the aftershock epicenters onto a set of lines that cross the mainshock epicenter with incremental azimuths. For strike-slip or large dip-slip events, for which the surface projection of the rupture is recti-linear, the calculated strike correlates well with the strike of the fault and the corresponding length, determined from the distribution of aftershocks projected onto the line, agrees well with the rupture length. In the case of a smaller dip-slip rupture with an aspect ratio closer to 1, the procedure gives a measure of the rupture extent and dimensions, but not necessarily the strike. We found that using standard earthquake catalogs, such as the National Earthquake Information Center catalog, we can constrain the rupture extent, rupture direction, and in many cases the type of faulting, of the mainshock with the aftershocks that occur within the first hour after the mainshock. However, this data may not be currently available in near real-time. Since our results show that these early aftershock locations may be used to estimate first order rupture parameters for large global earthquakes, the near real-time availability of these data would be useful for fast earthquake damage assessment.

Tectonic Setting and Aftershocks of the Mw 6.7 Feburary 14, 2013 Earthquake in Yakutia, Northeast Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rappolee, E.; Burk, D. R.; Mackey, K. G.; Fujita, K.; Shibaev, S. V.; Koz'min, B. M.

2016-12-01

The details of the seismotectonics along the boundary between the Eurasian, North American, and Okhotsk plates are poorly understood. Infrequent earthquakes of moderate size (Mw > 4) in this remote region make it difficult to characterize its tectonic activity. On February 14, 2013, an Mw 6.7 earthquake along this boundary in Northern Yakutia, Russia, resulted in a long sequence of aftershocks that provide an opportunity to better understand the region's geology. A temporary deployment of four seismic stations was installed around the main shock to supplement regional station coverage. During the ten day deployment, several thousand aftershocks were recorded. We have located 112 events using both first-arriving Pn and Sn and secondary arriving Pg and Sg phase time picks. The located aftershocks define a SSE striking zone approximately 30 km long and 10 km wide, east of the Illin'-Tas fault and northwest of the Indigirka River. Location depths range from 0 to 20 km. In conjunction with locating aftershocks, a local three-layer best-fit velocity was determined consisting of an upper crust (14 km thick, VPg = 6.06 km/s and VSg = 3.53 km/s), a lower crust (21 km thick, VP* = 6.45 km/s and VS* = 3.65 km/s), and a Moho (35 km deep, VPn = 7.98 km/s and VSn = 4.53 km/s). The mainshock epicenter falls in the northwestern corner of the aftershock zone, however its focal depth is not well established. Aftershock analysis is ongoing and will possibly provide a better understanding of the earthquake rupture zone. Nonetheless, results of this study support active thrusting and mountain building as a mechanism to accommodate compression along the North America-Eurasia boundary.

Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

Damped regional-scale stress inversions: Methodology and examples for southern California and the Coalinga aftershock sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardebeck, J.L.; Michael, A.J.

2006-01-01

We present a new focal mechanism stress inversion technique to produce regional-scale models of stress orientation containing the minimum complexity necessary to fit the data. Current practice is to divide a region into small subareas and to independently fit a stress tensor to the focal mechanisms of each subarea. This procedure may lead to apparent spatial variability that is actually an artifact of overfitting noisy data or nonuniquely fitting data that does not completely constrain the stress tensor. To remove these artifacts while retaining any stress variations that are strongly required by the data, we devise a damped inversion method to simultaneously invert for stress in all subareas while minimizing the difference in stress between adjacent subareas. This method is conceptually similar to other geophysical inverse techniques that incorporate damping, such as seismic tomography. In checkerboard tests, the damped inversion removes the stress rotation artifacts exhibited by an undamped inversion, while resolving sharper true stress rotations than a simple smoothed model or a moving-window inversion. We show an example of a spatially damped stress field for southern California. The methodology can also be used to study temporal stress changes, and an example for the Coalinga, California, aftershock sequence is shown. We recommend use of the damped inversion technique for any study examining spatial or temporal variations in the stress field.

On the choice of the functional form of the aftershocks decay equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasperini, P.; Lolli, B.

2003-04-01

To infer the optimal form of the rate equation describing the decay of aftershock sequences, we analyzed the correlation among parameter estimates made for New Zealand (Eberhard-Phillips, 1998) and Italy (Lolli and Gasperini, 2003), for the simple model proposed by Reasenberg and Jones (1989) λ(t)=10a+b(Mm-Mmin)over(t+c)^p} We found significant correlations between the sequence productivity parameter a and all other ones (p, c and b) and between p and c. At odd with previous findings (Guo and Ogata, 1995; 1997) we did not find instead correlation between b and p. We verified that the explicit inclusion in the formula of the time decay normalization integral removes the correlation of a with both parameters p and c. We also found, separately for both regions, that assuming the linear coefficient of main shock magnitude M_m about 2/3b makes parameter a also independent of b. The a parameter of the resulting rate equation λ(t)= 10a+2/3bMm-bMmin/ (t+c)^pint_ST(t+c)-pdt being almost independent of the other ones, can be reliably considered the expressions of a peculiar property of the seismogenic process. Thus we can infer that the new equation could be more appropriate than the previous one to predict sequence behavior in different areas. This formulation has also been applied to more sophisticated models of the epidemic type (ETAS), letting the coefficient of the main shock magnitude to vary freely. Some preliminary experiments give estimates close to 1/2b for this parameter.

Seasonal variations in shallow Alaska seismicity and stress modulation from GRACE derived hydrological loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, C. W.; Fu, Y.; Burgmann, R.

2017-12-01

Shallow (≤50 km), low magnitude (M≥2.0) seismicity in southern Alaska is examined for seasonal variations during the annual hydrological cycle. The seismicity is declustered with a spatio-temporal epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. The removal of aftershock sequences allows detailed investigation of seismicity rate changes, as water and ice loads modulate crustal stresses throughout the year. The GRACE surface loads are obtained from the JPL mass concentration blocks (mascons) global land and ocean solutions. The data product is smoothed with a 9˚ Gaussian filter and interpolated on a 25 km grid. To inform the surface loading model, the global solutions are limited to the region from -160˚ to -120˚ and 50˚ to 70˚. The stress changes are calculated using a 1D spherical layered earth model at depth intervals of 10 km from 10 - 50 km in the study region. To evaluate the induced seasonal stresses, we use >30 years of earthquake focal mechanisms to constrain the background stress field orientation and assess the stress change with respect to the principal stress orientation. The background stress field is assumed to control the preferred orientation of faulting, and stress field perturbations are expected to increase or decrease seismicity. The number of excess earthquakes is calculated with respect to the background seismicity rates. Here, we present preliminary results for the shallow seismicity variations and quantify the seasonal stresses associated with changes in hydrological loading.

Exponential decline of aftershocks of the M7.9 1868 great Kau earthquake, Hawaii, through the 20th century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, F.W.; Wright, Tim

2008-01-01

The remarkable catalog of Hawaiian earthquakes going back to the 1820s is based on missionary diaries, newspaper accounts, and instrumental records and spans the great M7.9 Kau earthquake of April 1868 and its aftershock sequence. The earthquake record since 1868 defines a smooth curve complete to M5.2 of the declining rate into the 21st century, after five short volcanic swarms are removed. A single aftershock curve fits the earthquake record, even with numerous M6 and 7 main shocks and eruptions. The timing of some moderate earthquakes may be controlled by magmatic stresses, but their overall long-term rate reflects one of aftershocks of the Kau earthquake. The 1868 earthquake is, therefore, the largest and most controlling stress event in the 19th and 20th centuries. We fit both the modified Omori (power law) and stretched exponential (SE) functions to the earthquakes. We found that the modified Omori law is a good fit to the M ??? 5.2 earthquake rate for the first 10 years or so and the more rapidly declining SE function fits better thereafter, as supported by three statistical tests. The switch to exponential decay suggests that a possible change in aftershock physics may occur from rate and state fault friction, with no change in the stress rate, to viscoelastic stress relaxation. The 61-year exponential decay constant is at the upper end of the range of geodetic relaxation times seen after other global earthquakes. Modeling deformation in Hawaii is beyond the scope of this paper, but a simple interpretation of the decay suggests an effective viscosity of 1019 to 1020 Pa s pertains in the volcanic spreading of Hawaii's flanks. The rapid decline in earthquake rate poses questions for seismic hazard estimates in an area that is cited as one of the most hazardous in the United States.

Implications of diverse fault orientations imaged in relocated aftershocks of the Mount Lewis, ML 5.7, California, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilb, D.; Rubin, A. M.

2002-11-01

We use seismic waveform cross correlation to determine the relative positions of 2747 microearthquakes near Mount Lewis, California, that have waveforms recorded from 1984 to 1999. These earthquakes include the aftershock sequence of the 1986 ML5.7 Mount Lewis earthquake. Approximately 90% of these aftershocks are located beyond the tips of the approximately north striking main shock, defining an hourglass with the long axis aligned approximately with the main shock. Surprisingly, our relocation demonstrates that many of these aftershocks illuminate a series of near-vertical east-west faults that are ˜0.5-1 km long and separated by as little as ˜200 m. We propose that these structures result from the growth of a relatively young fault in which displacement across a right-lateral approximately north striking fault zone is accommodated by slip on secondary left-lateral approximately east striking faults. We derive the main shock-induced static Coulomb failure function (Δσf) on the dominant fault orientation in our study area using a three-dimensional (3-D) boundary element program. To bound viable friction coefficients, we measure the correlation between the rank ordering of relative amplitudes of Δσf and seismicity rate change. We find that likely friction coefficients are 0.2-0.6 and that the assumed main shock geometry introduces the largest uncertainties in the favored friction values. We obtain similar results from a visual correlation of calculated Δσf contours with the distribution of aftershocks. Viable rate-and-state constitutive parameters bound the observed relationship between magnitude of Δσf and seismicity rate change, and for our favored main shock model a maximum correlation is achieved when Δσf is computed with friction coefficients of 0.3-0.6. These values are below those previously cited for young faults.

High-frequency spectral falloff of earthquakes, fractal dimension of complex rupture, b value, and the scaling of strength on faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, A.

1991-01-01

The high-frequency falloff ??-y of earthquake displacement spectra and the b value of aftershock sequences are attributed to the character of spatially varying strength along fault zones. I assume that the high frequency energy of a main shock is produced by a self-similar distribution of subevents, where the number of subevents with radii greater than R is proportional to R-D, D being the fractal dimension. In the model, an earthquake is composed of a hierarchical set of smaller earthquakes. The static stress drop is parameterized to be proportional to R??, and strength is assumed to be proportional to static stress drop. I find that a distribution of subevents with D = 2 and stress drop independent of seismic moment (?? = 0) produces a main shock with an ??-2 falloff, if the subevent areas fill the rupture area of the main shock. By equating subevents to "islands' of high stress of a random, self-similar stress field on a fault, I relate D to the scaling of strength on a fault, such that D = 2 - ??. Thus D = 2 corresponds to constant stress drop scaling (?? = 0) and scale-invariant fault strength. A self-similar model of aftershock rupture zones on a fault is used to determine the relationship between the b value, the size distribution of aftershock rupture zones, and the scaling of strength on a fault. -from Author

Modeling earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas: possible signatures of induced seismicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

2013-01-01

The rate of ML≥3 earthquakes in the central and eastern United States increased beginning in 2009, particularly in Oklahoma and central Arkansas, where fluid injection has occurred. We find evidence that suggests these rate increases are man‐made by examining the rate changes in a catalog of ML≥3 earthquakes in Oklahoma, which had a low background seismicity rate before 2009, as well as rate changes in a catalog of ML≥2.2 earthquakes in central Arkansas, which had a history of earthquake swarms prior to the start of injection in 2009. In both cases, stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models and statistical tests demonstrate that the earthquake rate change is statistically significant, and both the background rate of independent earthquakes and the aftershock productivity must increase in 2009 to explain the observed increase in seismicity. This suggests that a significant change in the underlying triggering process occurred. Both parameters vary, even when comparing natural to potentially induced swarms in Arkansas, which suggests that changes in both the background rate and the aftershock productivity may provide a way to distinguish man‐made from natural earthquake rate changes. In Arkansas we also compare earthquake and injection well locations, finding that earthquakes within 6 km of an active injection well tend to occur closer together than those that occur before, after, or far from active injection. Thus, like a change in productivity, a change in interevent distance distribution may also be an indicator of induced seismicity.

The LVD signals during the early-mid stages of the L'Aquila seismic sequence and the radon signature of some aftershocks of moderate magnitude.

PubMed

Cigolini, C; Laiolo, M; Coppola, D

2015-01-01

The L'Aquila seismic swarm culminated with the mainshock of April 6, 2009 (ML = 5.9). Here, we report and analyze the Large Volume Detector (LVD, used in neutrinos research) low energy traces (∼0.8 MeV), collected during the early-mid stages of the seismic sequence, together with the data of a radon monitoring experiment. The peaks of LVD traces do not correlate with the evolution and magnitude of earthquakes, including major aftershocks. Conversely, our radon measurements obtained by utilizing three automatic stations deployed along the regional NW-SE faulting system, seem to be, in one case, more efficient. In fact, the timeseries collected on the NW-SE Paganica fracture recorded marked variations and peaks that occurred during and prior moderate aftershocks (with ML > 3). The Paganica monitoring station (PGN) seems to better responds to active seismicity due to the fact that the radon detector was placed directly within the bedrock of an active fault. It is suggested that future networks for radon monitoring of active seismicity should preferentially implement this setting. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detection of the Wenchuan aftershock sequence using waveform correlation with a composite regional network

DOE PAGES

Slinkard, Megan; Heck, Stephen; Schaff, David; ...

2016-06-28

Using template waveforms from aftershocks of the Wenchuan earthquake (12 May 2008, M s 8.0) listed in a global bulletin and continuous data from eight regional stations, we detected more than 6000 additional events in the mainshock source region from 1 May to 12 August 2008. These new detections obey Omori’s law, extend the magnitude of completeness downward by 1.1 magnitude units, and lead to a more than fivefold increase in number of known aftershocks compared with the global bulletins published by the International Data Centre and the Inter national Seismological Centre. Moreover, we detected more M > 2 eventsmore » than were listed by the Sichuan Seismograph Network. Several clusters of these detections were then relocated using the double-difference method, yielding locations that reduced travel-time residuals by a factor of 32 compared with the initial bulletin locations. Finally, our results suggest that using waveform correlation on a few regional stations can find aftershock events very effectively and locate them with precision.« less

The 10 April 2014 Nicaraguan Crustal Earthquake: Evidence of Complex Deformation of the Central American Volcanic Arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suárez, Gerardo; Muñoz, Angélica; Farraz, Isaac A.; Talavera, Emilio; Tenorio, Virginia; Novelo-Casanova, David A.; Sánchez, Antonio

2016-10-01

On 10 April 2014, an M w 6.1 earthquake struck central Nicaragua. The main event and the aftershocks were clearly recorded by the Nicaraguan national seismic network and other regional seismic stations. These crustal earthquakes were strongly felt in central Nicaragua but caused relatively little damage. This is in sharp contrast to the destructive effects of the 1972 earthquake in the capital city of Managua. The differences in damage stem from the fact that the 1972 earthquake occurred on a fault beneath the city; in contrast, the 2014 event lies offshore, under Lake Managua. The distribution of aftershocks of the 2014 event shows two clusters of seismic activity. In the northwestern part of Lake Managua, an alignment of aftershocks suggests a northwest to southeast striking fault, parallel to the volcanic arc. The source mechanism agrees with this right-lateral, strike-slip motion on a plane with the same orientation as the aftershock sequence. For an earthquake of this magnitude, seismic scaling relations between fault length and magnitude predict a sub-surface fault length of approximately 16 km. This length is in good agreement with the extent of the fault defined by the aftershock sequence. A second cluster of aftershocks beneath Apoyeque volcano occurred simultaneously, but spatially separated from the first. There is no clear alignment of the epicenters in this cluster. Nevertheless, the decay of the number of earthquakes beneath Apoyeque as a function of time shows the typical behavior of an aftershock sequence and not of a volcanic swarm. The northeast-southwest striking Tiscapa/Ciudad Jardín and Estadio faults that broke during the 1972 and 1931 Managua earthquakes are orthogonal to the fault where the 10 April earthquake occurred. These orthogonal faults in close geographic proximity show that Central Nicaragua is being deformed in a complex tectonic setting. The Nicaraguan forearc sliver, between the trench and the volcanic arc, moves to the northwest relative to the Caribbean plate at a rate of 14 mm/year. Part of the deformation is apparently accommodated by strain partitioning in the form of bookshelf faulting, on a system of orthogonal faults. The sinistral faults striking northeast-southwest rotate blocks of the Caribbean plate in a clockwise manner. The recent crustal earthquakes in central Nicaragua in 1931, 1972 and 2005 earthquakes took place on these left-lateral faults. The motion of the forearc sliver is also accommodated by a second set of right-lateral, strike-slip faults oriented parallel to the volcanic arc. Faults with this orientation and direction of motion are responsible for the 2014 and possibly the 1955 earthquakes. The presence of this geometry of orthogonal crustal faults highlights the seismic hazard posed by this complex faulting system, not only in the capital city of Managua, but also to the major Nicaraguan cities, which lie close to the volcanic arc.

The Al Hoceima earthquake sequence of 1994, 2004 and 2016: Stress transfer and poroelasticity in the Rif and Alboran Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kariche, J.; Meghraoui, M.; Timoulali, Y.; Cetin, E.; Toussaint, R.

2018-01-01

The 2016 January 25 earthquake (Mw 6.3) follows in sequence from the1994 May 26 earthquake (Mw 6.0) and the 2004 February 24 earthquake (Mw 6.4) in the Rif Mountains and Alboran Sea. The earlier two seismic events which were destructive took place on inland conjugate faults, and the third event occurred on an offshore fault. These earthquake sequences occurred within a period of 22 yr at ˜25 km distance and 11-16-km depth. The three events have similar strike-slip focal mechanism solutions with NNE-SSW trending left-lateral faulting for the 1994 and 2016 events and NW-SE trending right-lateral faulting for the 2004 event. This shallow seismic sequence offers the possibility (i) to model the change in Coulomb Failure Function (ΔCFF with low μ΄ including the pore pressure change) and understand fault-rupture interaction, and (ii) to analyse the effect of pore fluid on the rupture mechanism, and infer the clock-time advance. The variation of static stress change has a direct impact on the main shock, aftershocks and related positive lobes of the 2004 earthquake rupture with a stress change increase of 0.7-1.1 bar. Similarly, the 2004 main shock and aftershocks indicate loading zones with a stress change (>0.25 bar) that includes the 2016 earthquake rupture. The tectonic loading of 19-24 nanostrain yr-1 obtained from the seismicity catalogue of Morocco is comparable to the 5.0 × 1017 N.m yr-1 seismic strain release in the Rif Mountains. The seismic sequence is apparently controlled by the poroelastic properties of the seismogenic layer that depend on the undrained and drained fluid conditions. The short interseismic period between main shocks and higher rate of aftershocks with relatively large magnitudes (4 < Mw < 5.5) implies the pore-fluid physical effect in undrained and drained conditions. The stress-rate ranges between 461 and 582 Pa yr-1 with a ΔCFF of 0.2-1.1 bar. The computed clock-time advance reaches 239 ± 22 yr in agreement with the ˜10 yr delay between main shocks. The calculated static stress change of 0.9-1.3 bar, under pore-fluid stimulus added with well-constrained geodetic and seismic strain rates are critical for any seismic hazard assessment.

Foreshocks and aftershocks locations of the 2014 Pisagua, N. Chile earthquake: history of a megathrust earthquake nucleation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuenzalida Velasco, Amaya; Rietbrock, Andreas; Tavera, Hernando; Ryder, Isabelle; Ruiz, Sergio; Thomas, Reece; De Angelis, Silvio; Bondoux, Francis

2015-04-01

The April 2014 Mw 8.1 Pisagua earthquake occurred in the Northern Chile seismic gap: a region of the South American subduction zone lying between Arica city and the Mejillones Peninsula. It is believed that this part of the subduction zone has not experienced a large earthquake since 1877. Thanks to the identification of this seismic gap, the north of Chile was well instrumented before the Pisagua earthquake, including the Integrated Plate boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC) network and the Chilean local network installed by the Centro Sismologico Nacional (CSN). These instruments were able to record the full foreshock and aftershock sequences, allowing a unique opportunity to study the nucleation process of large megathrust earthquakes. To improve azimuthal coverage of the Pisagua seismic sequence, after the earthquake, in collaboration with the Instituto Geofisico del Peru (IGP) we installed a temporary seismic network in south of Peru. The network comprised 12 short-period stations located in the coastal area between Moquegua and Tacna and they were operative from 1st May 2014. We also installed three stations on the slopes of the Ticsiani volcano to monitor any possible change in volcanic activity following the Pisagua earthquake. In this work we analysed the continuous seismic data recorded by CSN and IPOC networks from 1 March to 30 June to obtain the catalogue of the sequence, including foreshocks and aftershocks. Using an automatic algorithm based in STA/LTA we obtained the picks for P and S waves. Association in time and space defined the events and computed an initial location using Hypo71 and the 1D local velocity model. More than 11,000 events were identified with this method for the whole period, but we selected the best resolved events that include more than 7 observed arrivals with at least 2 S picks of them, to relocate these events using NonLinLoc software. For the main events of the sequence we carefully estimate event locations and we obtained their regional the Moment Tensor solutions by 1-D full waveform inversion of the broadband data using ISOLA software. In this work we analysed the evolution of the seismicity during the whole sequence and the spatial relation with coupling observed by previous geodetics studies.

The Al Hoceima earthquake sequence of 1994, 2004 and 2016: Stress transfer and poro-elasticity in the Rif and Alboran Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kariche, Jughurta; Meghraoui, Mustapha; Timoulali, Youssef; Cetin, Esra; Toussaint, Renaud

2017-04-01

The 25 January 2016 earthquake (Mw 6.3) follows in sequence the 26 May 1994 earthquake (Mw 6.0) and the 24 February 2004 earthquake (Mw 6.4) in the Rif Mountains and Alboran Sea. The earlier two seismic events which were destructive took place on inland conjugate faults, and the third event occurred on an offshore fault. These earthquake sequences occurred within a period of 22 years at 25 km distance and 11 - 16-km-depth. The three events have similar strike-slip focal mechanism solutions with NNE-SSW trending left lateral faulting for the 1994 and 2016 events and NW-SE trending right-lateral faulting for the 2004 event. This shallow seismic sequence offers the possibility a) to model the change in Coulomb Failure Function (CFF with μ' = 0.4 including the pore pressure change) and understand fault-rupture interaction, and b) to analyze the effect of pore-fluid on the rupture mechanism, and infer the clock-time advance. The variation of static stress change has a direct impact on the 1994 mainshock, aftershocks and related positive lobes of the 2004 earthquake rupture with a stress change increase of 0.7 - 1.1 bar. Similarly, the 2004 mainshock and aftershocks indicate loading zones with a stress change (> 0.25 bar) that includes the 2016 earthquake rupture. The tectonic loading 19 - 24 nanostrain/yr obtained from the seismicity catalogue of Morocco are comparable to the 5 1017 N.m/yr seismic strain release in the Rif Mountains. The seismic sequence is apparently controlled by the poro-elastic properties of the seismogenic layer that depend on the undrained and drained fluid condition. The short interseismic period between mainshocks and higher rate of aftershocks with relatively large magnitudes (4< Mw <5.5) implies the pore-fluid physical effect in an undrained condition. The stress-rate ranges between 461 - 582 Pa/yr with a CFF of 0.2 - 1.1 bar. The computed clock-time advance reaches 239 ±22 years in agreement with the 10 years delay between mainshocks. The calculated static stress change of 0.9 - 1.3 bar, under pore-fluid stimulus added with well-constrained geodetic and seismic strain rates are critical for any seismic hazard assessment.

Stress loading from viscous flow in the lower crust and triggering of aftershocks following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deng, J.; Hudnut, K.; Gurnis, M.; Hauksson, E.

1999-01-01

Following the M(w) 6.7 Northridge earthquake, significant postseismic displacements were resolved with GPS. Using a three-dimensional viscoelastic model, we suggest that this deformation is mainly driven by viscous flow in the lower crust. Such flow can transfer stress to the upper crust and load the rupture zone of the main shock at a decaying rate. Most aftershocks within the rupture zone, especially those that occurred after the first several weeks of the main shock, may have been triggered by continuous stress loading from viscous flow. The long-term decay time of aftershocks (about 2 years) approximately matches the decay of viscoelastic loading, and thus is controlled by the viscosity of the lower crust. Our model provides a physical interpretation of the observed correlation between aftershock decay rate and surface heat flow.Following the Mw 6.7 Northridge earthquake, significant postseismic displacements were resolved with GPS. Using a three-dimensional viscoelastic model, we suggest that this deformation is mainly driven by viscous flow in the lower crust. Such flow can transfer stress to the upper crust and load the rupture zone of the main shock at a decaying rate. Most aftershocks within the rupture zone, especially those that occurred after the first several weeks of the main shock, may have been triggered by continuous stress loading from viscous flow. The long-term decay time of aftershocks (about 2 years) approximately matches the decay of viscoelastic loading, and thus is controlled by the viscosity of the lower crust. Our model provides a physical interpretation of the observed correlation between aftershock decay rate and surface heat flow.

Iterative Strategies for Aftershock Classification in Automatic Seismic Processing Pipelines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gibbons, Steven J.; Kvaerna, Tormod; Harris, David B.

We report aftershock sequences following very large earthquakes present enormous challenges to near-real-time generation of seismic bulletins. The increase in analyst resources needed to relocate an inflated number of events is compounded by failures of phase-association algorithms and a significant deterioration in the quality of underlying, fully automatic event bulletins. Current processing pipelines were designed a generation ago, and, due to computational limitations of the time, are usually limited to single passes over the raw data. With current processing capability, multiple passes over the data are feasible. Processing the raw data at each station currently generates parametric data streams thatmore » are then scanned by a phase-association algorithm to form event hypotheses. We consider the scenario in which a large earthquake has occurred and propose to define a region of likely aftershock activity in which events are detected and accurately located, using a separate specially targeted semiautomatic process. This effort may focus on so-called pattern detectors, but here we demonstrate a more general grid-search algorithm that may cover wider source regions without requiring waveform similarity. Given many well-located aftershocks within our source region, we may remove all associated phases from the original detection lists prior to a new iteration of the phase-association algorithm. We provide a proof-of-concept example for the 2015 Gorkha sequence, Nepal, recorded on seismic arrays of the International Monitoring System. Even with very conservative conditions for defining event hypotheses within the aftershock source region, we can automatically remove about half of the original detections that could have been generated by Nepal earthquakes and reduce the likelihood of false associations and spurious event hypotheses. Lastly, further reductions in the number of detections in the parametric data streams are likely, using correlation and subspace detectors and/or empirical matched field processing.« less

Iterative Strategies for Aftershock Classification in Automatic Seismic Processing Pipelines

DOE PAGES

Gibbons, Steven J.; Kvaerna, Tormod; Harris, David B.; ...

2016-06-08

We report aftershock sequences following very large earthquakes present enormous challenges to near-real-time generation of seismic bulletins. The increase in analyst resources needed to relocate an inflated number of events is compounded by failures of phase-association algorithms and a significant deterioration in the quality of underlying, fully automatic event bulletins. Current processing pipelines were designed a generation ago, and, due to computational limitations of the time, are usually limited to single passes over the raw data. With current processing capability, multiple passes over the data are feasible. Processing the raw data at each station currently generates parametric data streams thatmore » are then scanned by a phase-association algorithm to form event hypotheses. We consider the scenario in which a large earthquake has occurred and propose to define a region of likely aftershock activity in which events are detected and accurately located, using a separate specially targeted semiautomatic process. This effort may focus on so-called pattern detectors, but here we demonstrate a more general grid-search algorithm that may cover wider source regions without requiring waveform similarity. Given many well-located aftershocks within our source region, we may remove all associated phases from the original detection lists prior to a new iteration of the phase-association algorithm. We provide a proof-of-concept example for the 2015 Gorkha sequence, Nepal, recorded on seismic arrays of the International Monitoring System. Even with very conservative conditions for defining event hypotheses within the aftershock source region, we can automatically remove about half of the original detections that could have been generated by Nepal earthquakes and reduce the likelihood of false associations and spurious event hypotheses. Lastly, further reductions in the number of detections in the parametric data streams are likely, using correlation and subspace detectors and/or empirical matched field processing.« less

Advances in Geophysical Methods at Parkfield, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennington, Ninfa

The Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault (SAF) is one of the most highly monitored fault sites in the world. I carry out two studies, taking advantage of the dense set of geophysical observations obtained for this segment of the fault. In the first study, I use geodetic data to had a model of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake with the constraint that the edges of coseismic slip patches preferentially align with aftershocks. Application of the aftershock distribution constraint on coseismic slip yields a model that agrees in location and amplitude with features observed in previous geodetic studies and the majority of strong motion studies. The curvature-constrained solution shows slip primarily between aftershock "streaks" with the continuation of moderate levels of slip towards the 2004 Parkfield earthquake hypocenter. The observed continuation of coseismic slip towards the hypocenter is in good agreement with strong motion studies but is not observed in the majority of published geodetic slip models, which I attribute to resolution limitations. In the second study, I develop tomoDDMT, a joint inversion code that simultaneously inverts for resistivity and seismic velocity models under the cross- gradient constraint. This constraint uses a weighted penalty function to encourage areas where the two models are changing to be structurally similar. I present jointly inverted models of P-wave velocity (Vp) and resistivity for a cross-section centered on the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD). The joint inversion scheme achieves structurally similar Vp and resistivity images that adequately fit the seismic and MT data without forcing model similarity where none exists. Using tomoDDMT, I obtain models or resistivity and Vp that yield increased insight into the geologic structure at Parkfield. I address key issues including: the location of the Franciscan formation at depth, the spatial extent of the Upper Great Valley sequence, the validity of the eastern wall as a fluid pathway, the distribution of the eastern conductor, and the distribution of the Salinian block at depth.

A prototype operational earthquake loss model for California based on UCERF3-ETAS – A first look at valuation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward; Porter, Keith; Milner, Kevn

2017-01-01

We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to statewide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.

Seismicity Controlled by a Frictional Afterslip During a Small-Magnitude Seismic Sequence (ML < 5) on the Chihshang Fault, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canitano, Alexandre; Godano, Maxime; Hsu, Ya-Ju; Lee, Hsin-Ming; Linde, Alan T.; Sacks, Selwyn

2018-02-01

We report evidence for frictional afterslip at shallow depths (about 5 to 7 km) during a small-magnitude seismic sequence (with ML<5) along the Chihshang Fault, a main active structure of the Longitudinal Valley, in southeast Taiwan. The afterslip, which was recorded by a nearby borehole dilatometer, lasted about a month with a cumulative geodetic moment magnitude of 4.8 ± 0.2. The afterslip comprised two stages and controlled the aftershock sequence. The first postseismic stage, which followed a ML 4.6 earthquake, lasted about 6 h and mostly controlled the ruptures of neighboring asperities (e.g., multiplets) near the hypocenter. Then, a 4 week duration large afterslip event following a ML 4.9 earthquake controlled the rate of aftershocks during its first 2 days through brittle creep. The study presents a rare case of simultaneous seismological and geodetic observations for afterslip following earthquakes with magnitude lower than 5. Furthermore, the geodetic moment of the postseismic phase is at least equivalent to the coseismic moment of the sequence.

Foreshock and aftershocks in simple earthquake models.

PubMed

Kazemian, J; Tiampo, K F; Klein, W; Dominguez, R

2015-02-27

Many models of earthquake faults have been introduced that connect Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling to triggering processes. However, natural earthquake fault systems are composed of a variety of different geometries and materials and the associated heterogeneity in physical properties can cause a variety of spatial and temporal behaviors. This raises the question of how the triggering process and the structure interact to produce the observed phenomena. Here we present a simple earthquake fault model based on the Olami-Feder-Christensen and Rundle-Jackson-Brown cellular automata models with long-range interactions that incorporates a fixed percentage of stronger sites, or asperity cells, into the lattice. These asperity cells are significantly stronger than the surrounding lattice sites but eventually rupture when the applied stress reaches their higher threshold stress. The introduction of these spatial heterogeneities results in temporal clustering in the model that mimics that seen in natural fault systems along with GR scaling. In addition, we observe sequences of activity that start with a gradually accelerating number of larger events (foreshocks) prior to a main shock that is followed by a tail of decreasing activity (aftershocks). This work provides further evidence that the spatial and temporal patterns observed in natural seismicity are strongly influenced by the underlying physical properties and are not solely the result of a simple cascade mechanism.

Spectral scaling of the aftershocks of the Tocopilla 2007 earthquake in northern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lancieri, M.; Madariaga, R.; Bonilla, F.

2012-04-01

We study the scaling of spectral properties of a set of 68 aftershocks of the 2007 November 14 Tocopilla (M 7.8) earthquake in northern Chile. These are all subduction events with similar reverse faulting focal mechanism that were recorded by a homogenous network of continuously recording strong motion instruments. The seismic moment and the corner frequency are obtained assuming that the aftershocks satisfy an inverse omega-square spectral decay; radiated energy is computed integrating the square velocity spectrum corrected for attenuation at high frequencies and for the finite bandwidth effect. Using a graphical approach, we test the scaling of seismic spectrum, and the scale invariance of the apparent stress drop with the earthquake size. To test whether the Tocopilla aftershocks scale with a single parameter, we introduce a non-dimensional number, ?, that should be constant if earthquakes are self-similar. For the Tocopilla aftershocks, Cr varies by a factor of 2. More interestingly, Cr for the aftershocks is close to 2, the value that is expected for events that are approximately modelled by a circular crack. Thus, in spite of obvious differences in waveforms, the aftershocks of the Tocopilla earthquake are self-similar. The main shock is different because its records contain large near-field waves. Finally, we investigate the scaling of energy release rate, Gc, with the slip. We estimated Gc from our previous estimates of the source parameters, assuming a simple circular crack model. We find that Gc values scale with the slip, and are in good agreement with those found by Abercrombie and Rice for the Northridge aftershocks.

Source parameters of the 2014 Ms6.5 Ludian earthquake sequence and their implications on the seismogenic structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.

2015-12-01

On August 3, 2014, an Ms6.5 earthquake struck Ludian county, Zhaotong city in Yunnan province, China. Although this earthquake is not very big, it caused abnormal severe damages. Thus, study on the causes of the serious damages of this moderate strong earthquake may help us to evaluate seismic hazards for similar earthquakes. Besides the factors which directly relate to the damages, such as site effects, quality of buildings, seismogenic structures and the characteristics of the mainshock and the aftershocks may also responsible for the seismic hazards. Since focal mechanism solution and centroid depth provide key information of earthquake source properties and tectonic stress field, and the focal depth is one of the most important parameters which control the damages of earthquakes, obtaining precise FMSs and focal depths of the Ludian earthquake sequence may help us to determine the detailed geometric features of the rupture fault and the seismogenic environment. In this work we obtained the FMSs and centroid depths of the Ludian earthquake and its Ms>3.0 aftershocks by the revised CAP method, and further verified some focal depths using the depth phase method. Combining the FMSs of the mainshock and the strong aftershocks, as well as their spatial distributions, and the seismogenic environment of the source region, we can make the following characteristics of the Ludian earthquake sequence and its seismogenic structure: (1) The Ludian earthquake is a left-lateral strike slip earthquake, with magnitude of about Mw6.1. The FMS of nodal plane I is 75o/56o/180o for strike, dip and rake angles, and 165o/90o/34ofor the other nodal plane. (2) The Ludian earthquake is very shallow with the optimum centroid depth of ~3 km, which is consistent with the strong ground shaking and the surface rupture observed by field survey and strengthens the damages of the Ludian earthquake. (3) The Ludian Earthquake should occur on the NNW trend BXF. Because two later aftershocks occurred close to the fault zone of the ZLF, and their FMSs are similar with the characteristics of the ZLF, the shallower part of the ZLF may also rupture during the aftershock duration of the Ludian earthquake. Since the ZLF is much longer than the BXF, the seismic risk of the ZLF may be high and should be required more attention.

Using the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake to test the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis and to calculate faults brought closer to failure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toda, Shinji; Lin, Jian; Stein, Ross S.

2011-01-01

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake provides an unprecedented test of the extent to which Coulomb stress transfer governs the triggering of aftershocks. During 11-31 March, there were 177 aftershocks with focal mechanisms, and so the Coulomb stress change imparted by the rupture can be resolved on the aftershock nodal planes to learn whether they were brought closer to failure. Numerous source models for the mainshock have been inverted from seismic, geodetic, and tsunami observations. Here, we show that, among six tested source models, there is a mean 47% gain in positively-stressed aftershock mechanisms over that for the background (1997-10 March 2011) earthquakes, which serve as the control group. An aftershock fault friction of 0.4 is found to fit the data better than 0.0 or 0.8, and among all the tested models, Wei and Sladen (2011) produced the largest gain, 63%. We also calculate that at least 5 of the seven large, exotic, or remote aftershocks were brought ≥0.3 bars closer to failure. With these tests as confirmation, we calculate that large sections of the Japan trench megathrust, the outer trench slope normal faults, the Kanto fragment beneath Tokyo, and the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line, were also brought ≥0.3 bars closer to failure.

Aftershock distribution as a constraint on the geodetic model of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennington, Ninfa; Thurber, Clifford; Feigl, Kurt; ,

2011-01-01

Several studies of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake have linked the spatial distribution of the event’s aftershocks to the mainshock slip distribution on the fault. Using geodetic data, we find a model of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake with the constraint that the edges of coseismic slip patches align with aftershocks. The constraint is applied by encouraging the curvature of coseismic slip in each model cell to be equal to the negative of the curvature of seismicity density. The large patch of peak slip about 15 km northwest of the 2004 hypocenter found in the curvature-constrained model is in good agreement in location and amplitude with previous geodetic studies and the majority of strong motion studies. The curvature-constrained solution shows slip primarily between aftershock “streaks” with the continuation of moderate levels of slip to the southeast. These observations are in good agreement with strong motion studies, but inconsistent with the majority of published geodetic slip models. Southeast of the 2004 hypocenter, a patch of peak slip observed in strong motion studies is absent from our curvature-constrained model, but the available GPS data do not resolve slip in this region. We conclude that the geodetic slip model constrained by the aftershock distribution fits the geodetic data quite well and that inconsistencies between models derived from seismic and geodetic data can be attributed largely to resolution issues.

Finite-fault inversion of the Mw 5.9 2012 Emilia-Romagna earthquake (Northern Italy) using aftershocks as near-field Green's function approximations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Causse, Mathieu; Cultrera, Giovanna; Herrero, André; Courboulex, Françoise; Schiappapietra, Erika; Moreau, Ludovic

2017-04-01

On May 29, 2012 occurred a Mw 5.9 earthquake in the Emilia-Romagna region (Po Plain) on a thrust fault system. This shock, as well as hundreds of aftershocks, were recorded by 10 strong motion stations located less than 10 km away from the rupture plane, with 4 stations located within the surface rupture projection. The Po Plain is a very large EW trending syntectonic alluvial basin, delimited by the Alps and Apennines chains to the North and South. The Plio-Quaternary sedimentary sequence filling the Po Plain is characterized by an uneven thickness, ranging from several thousands of meters to a few tens of meters. This particular context results especially in a resonance basin below 1 Hz and strong surface waves, which makes it particularly difficult to model wave propagation and hence to obtain robust images of the rupture propagation. This study proposes to take advantage of the large set of recorded aftershocks, considered as point sources, to model wave propagation. Due to the heterogeneous distribution of the aftershocks on the fault plane, an interpolation technique is proposed to compute an approximation of the Green's function between each fault point and each strong motion station in the frequency range [0.2-1Hz]. We then use a Bayesian inversion technique (Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm) to obtain images of the rupture propagation from the strong motion data. We propose to retrieve the slip distribution by inverting the final slip value at some control points, which are allowed to move on the fault plane, and by interpolating the slip value between these points. We show that the use of 5 control points to describe the slip, coupled with the hypothesis of spatially constant rupture velocity and rise-time (that is 18 free source parameters), results in a good level of fit with the data. This indicates that despite their complexity, the strong motion data can be properly modeled up to 1 Hz using a relatively simple rupture. The inversion results also reveal that the rupture propagated slowly, at a speed of about 45% of the shear wave velocity.

The 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales, Ecuador earthquake: Minimum 1D Velocity Model and Regional Moment Tensors Based on the Aftershock Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leon-Rios, S.; Aguiar, A. L.; Bie, L.; Edwards, B.; Fuenzalida Velasco, A. J.; Holt, J.; Garth, T.; González, P. J.; Rietbrock, A.; Agurto-Detzel, H.; Charvis, P.; Font, Y.; Nocquet, J. M.; Regnier, M. M.; Renouard, A.; Mercerat, D.; Pernoud, M.; Beck, S. L.; Meltzer, A.; Soto-Cordero, L.; Alvarado, A. P.; Perrault, M.; Ruiz, M. C.; Santo, J.

2017-12-01

On 16th April 2016, a Mw 7.8 mega-thrust earthquake occurred in northern Ecuador, close to the city of Pedernales. The event that ruptured an area of 120 x 60 km led to a deployment of a large array of seismic instruments as part of a collaborative project between the Geophysical Institute of Ecuador (IGEPN), Lehigh University (USA), University of Arizona (USA), Geoazur (France) and the University of Liverpool (UK). This dense seismic network, with more than 80 stations, includes broadband, short period, strong motion and OBS instruments were recording up to one year after the mainshock. Using the recorded data set, we manually analysed and located 450 events. Selection was based on the largest aftershocks (Ml > 3.5 from the IGEPN catalogue) and additional preliminary automatic locations to increase the observation density in the southern part of the network. High quality P and S arrival times plus several reference velocity structures were used to create more than 80.000 input models in order to obtain a minimum 1D velocity model and associated P and S waves station correction terms. Aftershock locations are concentrated in NW-SE striking lineaments reaching the trench. Additionally, we computed moment tensor solutions for a subset of earthquakes to independently confirm hypocentre depths using a full waveform simulation approach. Based on this analysis we can identify normal and strike-slip events located in the marine forearc and close to the trench. This type of activity has been observed in previous megathrust earthquakes (e.g. Maule 2010 and Tohoku-Oki 2011), and might be associated with extensional re-activation of existing fault systems due to a large event located on the megathrust fault.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diansari, Angga Vertika, E-mail: anggav.bmkg@gmail.com; Purwana, Ibnu; Subakti, Hendri

The 11 April 2012 earthquakes off-shore Aceh-North Sumatra are unique events for the history of Indonesian earthquake. It is unique because that they have similar magnitude, 8.5 Mw and 8.1 Mw; close to epicenter distance, similar strike-slip focal mechanism, and occuring in outer rise area. The purposes of this research are: (1) comparing area of earthquakes base on models and that of calculation, (2) fitting the shape and the area of earthquake rupture zones, (3) analyzing the relationship between rupture area and magnitude of the earthquakes. Rupture area of the earthquake fault are determined by using 4 different formulas, i.e.more » Utsu and Seki (1954), Wells and Coppersmith (1994), Ellsworth (2003), and Christophersen and Smith (2000). The earthquakes aftershock parameters are taken from PGN (PusatGempabumiNasional or National Earthquake Information Center) of BMKG (Indonesia Agency Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics). The aftershock epicenters are plotted by GMT’s software. After that, ellipse and rectangular models of aftershock spreading are made. The results show that: (1) rupture areas were calculated using magnitude relationship which are larger than the the aftershock distributions model, (2) the best fitting model for that earthquake aftershock distribution is rectangular associated with Utsu and Seki (1954) formula, (3) the larger the magnitude of the earthquake, the larger area of the fault.« less

Earthquake Rate Models for Evolving Induced Seismicity Hazard in the Central and Eastern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llenos, A. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Michael, A. J.

2015-12-01

Injection-induced earthquake rates can vary rapidly in space and time, which presents significant challenges to traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodologies that are based on a time-independent model of mainshock occurrence. To help society cope with rapidly evolving seismicity, the USGS is developing one-year hazard models for areas of induced seismicity in the central and eastern US to forecast the shaking due to all earthquakes, including aftershocks which are generally omitted from hazards assessments (Petersen et al., 2015). However, the spatial and temporal variability of the earthquake rates make them difficult to forecast even on time-scales as short as one year. An initial approach is to use the previous year's seismicity rate to forecast the next year's seismicity rate. However, in places such as northern Oklahoma the rates vary so rapidly over time that a simple linear extrapolation does not accurately forecast the future, even when the variability in the rates is modeled with simulations based on an Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988) to account for earthquake clustering. Instead of relying on a fixed time period for rate estimation, we explore another way to determine when the earthquake rate should be updated. This approach could also objectively identify new areas where the induced seismicity hazard model should be applied. We will estimate the background seismicity rate by optimizing a single set of ETAS aftershock triggering parameters across the most active induced seismicity zones -- Oklahoma, Guy-Greenbrier, the Raton Basin, and the Azle-Dallas-Fort Worth area -- with individual background rate parameters in each zone. The full seismicity rate, with uncertainties, can then be estimated using ETAS simulations and changes in rate can be detected by applying change point analysis in ETAS transformed time with methods already developed for Poisson processes.

Investigating the Local Three-dimensional Velocity Structure of the 2008 Taoyuan Earthquake Sequence of Kaohsiung, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, M. H.; Huang, B. S.

2016-12-01

March 4, 2008, a moderate earthquake (ML 5.2) occurred in Taoyuan district of Kaohsiung County in the southern Taiwan. It was followed by numerous aftershocks in the following 48 hours, including three events with magnitude larger than 4. The Taoyuan earthquake sequence occurred during the TAIGER (Taiwan Integrated Geodynamic Research) project which is to image lithospheric structure of Taiwan orogeny. The high-resolution waveform data of this sequence were well-recorded by a large number of recording stations belong to several different permanent and TAIGER networks all around Taiwan. We had collected the waveform data and archived to a mega database. Then, we had identified 2,340 events from database in the preliminary locating process by using 1-D velocity model. In this study, we applied the double-difference tomography to investigate not only the fault geometry of the main shock but also the detailed 3-D velocity structure in this area. A total of 3,034 events were selected from preliminary locating result and CWBSN catalog in the vicinity. The resulting aftershocks are extended along the NE-SW direction and located on a 45° SE-dipping plane which agrees to one of the nodal planes of Global CMT solution (strike = 45°, dip = 40° and rake = 119°). We can identify a clear low-velocity area which is enclosed by events next to the main shock in the final 3D velocity model. We also recognized a 45°-dipping zone which is extended to the ground surface with low-velocity; meanwhile, velocity structure variation in study area correspond with major geologic units in Taiwan.

Geophysical data reveal the crustal structure of the Alaska Range orogen within the aftershock zone of the Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, M.A.; Ratchkovski, N.A.; Nokleberg, W.J.; Pellerin, L.; Glen, J.M.G.

2004-01-01

Geophysical information, including deep-crustal seismic reflection, magnetotelluric (MT), gravity, and magnetic data, cross the aftershock zone of the 3 November 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake. These data and aftershock seismicity, jointly interpreted, reveal the crustal structure of the right-lateral-slip Denali fault and the eastern Alaska Range orogen, as well as the relationship between this structure and seismicity. North of the Denali fault, strong seismic reflections from within the Alaska Range orogen show features that dip as steeply as 25?? north and extend downward to depths between 20 and 25 km. These reflections reveal crustal structures, probably ductile shear zones, that most likely formed during the Late Cretaceous, but these structures appear to be inactive, having produced little seismicity during the past 20 years. Furthermore, seismic reflections mainly dip north, whereas alignments in aftershock hypocenters dip south. The Denali fault is nonreflective, but modeling of MT, gravity, and magnetic data suggests that the Denali fault dips steeply to vertically. However, in an alternative structural model, the Denali fault is defined by one of the reflection bands that dips to the north and flattens into the middle crust of the Alaska Range orogen. Modeling of MT data indicates a rock body, having low electrical resistivity (>10 ??-m), that lies mainly at depths greater than 10 km, directly beneath aftershocks of the Denali fault earthquake. The maximum depth of aftershocks along the Denali fault is 10 km. This shallow depth may arise from a higher-than-normal geothermal gradient. Alternatively, the low electrical resistivity of deep rocks along the Denali fault may be associated with fluids that have weakened the lower crust and helped determine the depth extent of the after-shock zone.

Teleseismic Body Wave Analysis for the 27 September 2003 Altai, Earthquake (Mw7.4) and Large Aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez-Gonzalez, J. M.; Mellors, R.

2007-05-01

We investigate the kinematics of the rupture process for the September 27, 2003, Mw7.3, Altai earthquake and its associated large aftershocks. This is the largest earthquake striking the Altai mountains within the last 50 years, which provides important constraints on the ongoing tectonics. The fault plane solution obtained by teleseismic body waveform modeling indicated a predominantly strike-slip event (strike=130, dip=75, rake 170), Scalar moment for the main shock ranges from 0.688 to 1.196E+20 N m, a source duration of about 20 to 42 s, and an average centroid depth of 10 km. Source duration would indicate a fault length of about 130 - 270 km. The main shock was followed closely by two aftershocks (Mw5.7, Mw6.4) occurred the same day, another aftershock (Mw6.7) occurred on 1 October , 2003. We also modeled the second aftershock (Mw6.4) to asses geometric similarities during their respective rupture process. This aftershock occurred spatially very close to the mainshock and possesses a similar fault plane solution (strike=128, dip=71, rake=154), and centroid depth (13 km). Several local conditions, such as the crustal model and fault geometry, affect the correct estimation of some source parameters. We perfume a sensitivity evaluation of several parameters, including centroid depth, scalar moment and source duration, based on a point and finite source modeling. The point source approximation results are the departure parameters for the finite source exploration. We evaluate the different reported parameters to discard poor constrained models. In addition, deformation data acquired by InSAR are also included in the analysis.

Aftershocks of the june 20, 1978, Greece earthquake: A multimode faulting sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carver, D.; Bollinger, G.A.

1981-01-01

A 10-station portable seismograph network was deployed in northern Greece to study aftershocks of the magnitude (mb) 6.4 earthquake of June 20, 1978. The main shock occurred (in a graben) about 25 km northeast of the city of Thessaloniki and caused an east-west zone of surface rupturing 14 km long that splayed to 7 km wide at the west end. The hypocenters for 116 aftershocks in the magnitude range from 2.5 to 4.5 were determined. The epicenters for these events cover an area 30 km (east-west) by 18 km (north-south), and focal depths ranges from 4 to 12 km. Most of the aftershocks in the east half of the aftershock zone are north of the surface rupture and north of the graben. Those in the west half are located within the boundaries of the graben. Composite focalmechanism solutions for selected aftershocks indicate reactivation of geologically mapped normal faults in the area. Also, strike-slip and dip-slip faults that splay off the western end of the zone of surface ruptures may have been activated. The epicenters for four large (M ??? 4.8) foreshocks and the main shock were relocated using the method of joint epicenter determination. Collectively, those five epicenters form an arcuate pattern convex southward, that is north of and 5 km distant from the surface rupturing. The 5-km separation, along with a focal depth of 8 km (average aftershock depth) or 16 km (NEIS main-shock depth), implies that the fault plane dips northward 58?? or 73??, respectively. A preferred nodal-plane dip of 36?? was determined by B.C. Papazachos and his colleagues in 1979 from a focal-mechanism solution for the main shock. If this dip is valid for the causal fault and that fault projects to the zone of surface rupturing, a decrease of dip with depth is required. ?? 1981.

The May 29 2008 earthquake aftershock sequence within the South Iceland Seismic Zone: Fault locations and source parameters of aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandsdottir, B.; Parsons, M.; White, R. S.; Gudmundsson, O.; Drew, J.

2010-12-01

The mid-Atlantic plate boundary breaks up into a series of segments across Iceland. The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) is a complex transform zone where left-lateral E-W shear between the Reykjanes Peninsula Rift Zone and the Eastern Volcanic Zone is accommodated by bookshelf faulting along N-S lateral strike-slip faults. The SISZ is also a transient feature, migrating sideways in response to the southward propagation of the Eastern Volcanic Zone. Sequences of large earthquakes (M > 6) lasting from days to years and affecting most of the seismic zone have occurred repeatedly in historical time (last 1100 years), separated by intervals of relative quiescence lasting decades to more than a century. On May 29 2008, a Mw 6.1 earthquake struck the western part of the South Iceland Seismic Zone, followed within seconds by a slightly smaller event on a second fault ~5 km further west. Aftershocks, detected by a temporal array of 11 seismometers and three permanent Icelandic Meteorological Office stations were located using an automated Coalescence Microseismic Mapping technique. The epicenters delineate two major and several smaller N-S faults as well as an E-W zone of activity stretching further west into the Reykjanes Peninsula Rift Zone. Fault plane solutions show both right lateral and oblique strike slip mechanisms along the two major N-S faults. The aftershocks deepen from 3-5 km in the north to 8-9 km in the south, suggesting that the main faults dip southwards. The faulting is interpreted to be driven by the local stress due to transform motion between two parallel segments of the divergent plate boundary crossing Iceland.

Correlation of Foreshock Occurrence with Mainshock Depth, Rake, and Magnitude from the High Precision Catalog for Northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaff, D. P.; Waldhauser, F.; Lerner-Lam, A.

2010-12-01

Foreshocks are perhaps the best-documented and most undisputed precursors to some large earthquakes. The question remains, however, if foreshocks have any more predictive power for future mainshocks than any other earthquake. Several researchers argue for a single unifying triggering law for foreshocks, mainshocks, and aftershocks. An alternate model is that foreshocks are the byproduct of an aseismic pre-slip phase that scales with mainshock magnitude. In this case foreshocks are different than other earthquakes and have predictive value for the mainshock location, origin time, and magnitude. We examine 612 mainshocks with M ≥ 4 from the cross-correlation double-difference catalog for northern California. 235 (44%) of these had foreshock sequences, providing us with a data set more than an order of magnitude larger than those used in previous studies. We are able to confirm with improved accuracy correlations of foreshock occurrence and characteristics with depth. The proportion of mainshocks with associated foreshocks, the number of foreshocks in the sequence, the foreshock duration, and the foreshock radius in map view all decrease with increasing depth, all with statistical significance above 95%. This supports models where increasing normal stress due to lithostatic load inhibits foreshock occurrence. Other M ≥ 4 events that were classified as aftershocks of larger events did not show the depth dependence. However, our analysis does not confirm a previous observation that increased normal stress due to tectonic loading appears to inhibit foreshock occurrence. We observe a negative correlation of foreshock magnitude with foreshock duration which is consistent with a model of mainshocks triggered by increased pore pressure. We observe a statistically significant relationship between foreshock magnitude and mainshock magnitude, lending support to the pre-slip model.

The Somalian earthquakes of May, 1980, East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruegg, J. C.; Lépine, J. C.; Tarantola, A.; Lévêque, J. J.

1981-04-01

A seismic crisis, with a mb = 5.3 main shock, occured in the Somali Republic, East Africa (10°N, 43°E) from April to November 1980. Up to 2000 earthquakes with ML > 2 have been recorded during this period. This earthquake sequence is of particular interest because it occured in a seismically inactive zone and include a rather long aftershock sequence. Two groups of epicenters were identified using a relative location procedure. Aftershocks observed during the first two weeks fall very close to the Borama city, while latter shocks are situated 10km west. This may suggest that the second group of earthquakes has been induced by the first one. These data show that the continental margin between the Somalian Plateau shield and the quasi-oceanic crust of the Afar-Gulf of Aden region, remains active to day and is relevant to intraplate seismicity.

Using regional moment tensors to constrain the kinematics and stress evolution of the 2010–2013 Canterbury earthquake sequence, South Island, New Zealand

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herman, Matthew W.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Benz, Harley M.; Furlong, Kevin P.

2014-01-01

On September 3, 2010, a MW 7.0 (U.S. Geological Survey moment magnitude) earthquake ruptured across the Canterbury Plains in South Island, New Zealand. Since then, New Zealand GNS Science has recorded over 10,000 aftershocks ML 2.0 and larger, including three destructive ~ MW 6.0 earthquakes near Christchurch. We treat the Canterbury earthquake sequence as an intraplate earthquake sequence, and compare its kinematics to an Andersonian model for fault slip in a uniform stress field. We determined moment magnitudes and double couple solutions for 150 earthquakes having MW 3.7 and larger through the use of a waveform inversion technique using data from broadband seismic stations on South Island, New Zealand. The majority (126) of these double couple solutions have strike-slip focal mechanisms, with right-lateral slip on ENE fault planes or equivalently left-lateral slip on SSE fault planes. The remaining focal mechanisms indicate reverse faulting, except for two normal faulting events. The strike-slip segments have compatible orientations for slip in a stress field with a horizontal σ1 oriented ~ N115°E, and horizontal σ3. The preference for right lateral strike-slip earthquakes suggests that these structures are inherited from previous stages of deformation. Reverse slip is interpreted to have occurred on previously existing structures in regions with an absence of existing structures optimally oriented for strike-slip deformation. Despite the variations in slip direction and faulting style, most aftershocks had nearly the same P-axis orientation, consistent with the regional σ1. There is no evidence for significant changes in these stress orientations throughout the Canterbury earthquake sequence.

Catalog of Oroville, California, earthquakes; June 7, 1975 to July 31, 1976

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mantis, Constance; Lindh, Allan; Savage, William; Marks, Shirley

1979-01-01

On August 1, 1975, at 2020 GMT a magnitude 5.7 (ML) earthquake occurred 15 km south of Oroville, California, in the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada. It was preceded by 61 foreshocks that began on June 7, 1975, and was followed by thousands of aftershocks. Several studies have reported locations or analyses of various subsets of the Oroville sequence, including Morrison and others (1975), Savage and others (1975), Lester and others (1975), Toppozada and others (1975), Ryall and others (1975), Bufe and others (1976), Morrison and others (1976), and Lahr and others (1976). In this report arrival time data have been compiled from the original records at several institutions to produce a single catalog of the Oroville sequence from June 7, 1975, through July 31, 1976. This study has four objectives: to compile a list of earthquakes in the Oroville sequence that is as complete as possible above the minimum magnitude threshold of approximately 1.0;to determine accurate and uniform hypocentral coordinates for the earthquakes;to determine reliable and consistent magnitude values for the sequence; andto provide a statistically uniform basis for further investigation of the physical processes involved in the Oroville sequence as revealed by the parameters of the foreshocks and aftershocks.The basis and procedures for the data analysis are described in this report.

Constraining Source Locations of Shallow Subduction Megathrust Earthquakes in 1-D and 3-D Velocity Models - A Case Study of the 2002 Mw=6.4 Osa Earthquake, Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grevemeyer, I.; Arroyo, I. G.

2015-12-01

Earthquake source locations are generally routinely constrained using a global 1-D Earth model. However, the source location might be associated with large uncertainties. This is definitively the case for earthquakes occurring at active continental margins were thin oceanic crust subducts below thick continental crust and hence large lateral changes in crustal thickness occur as a function of distance to the deep-sea trench. Here, we conducted a case study of the 2002 Mw 6.4 Osa thrust earthquake in Costa Rica that was followed by an aftershock sequence. Initial relocations indicated that the main shock occurred fairly trenchward of most large earthquakes along the Middle America Trench off central Costa Rica. The earthquake sequence occurred while a temporary network of ocean-bottom-hydrophones and land stations 80 km to the northwest were deployed. By adding readings from permanent Costa Rican stations, we obtain uncommon P wave coverage of a large subduction zone earthquake. We relocated this catalog using a nonlinear probabilistic approach using a 1-D and two 3-D P-wave velocity models. The 3-D model was either derived from 3-D tomography based on onshore stations and a priori model based on seismic refraction data. All epicentres occurred close to the trench axis, but depth estimates vary by several tens of kilometres. Based on the epicentres and constraints from seismic reflection data the main shock occurred 25 km from the trench and probably along the plate interface at 5-10 km depth. The source location that agreed best with the geology was based on the 3-D velocity model derived from a priori data. Aftershocks propagated downdip to the area of a 1999 Mw 6.9 sequence and partially overlapped it. The results indicate that underthrusting of the young and buoyant Cocos Ridge has created conditions for interpolate seismogenesis shallower and closer to the trench axis than elsewhere along the central Costa Rica margin.

Analysis of Magnitude Correlations in a Self-Similar model of Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zambrano, A.; Joern, D.

2017-12-01

A recent model of seismicity that incorporates a self-similar Omori-Utsu relation, which is used to describe the temporal evolution of earthquake triggering, has been shown to provide a more accurate description of seismicity in Southern California when compared to epidemic type aftershock sequence models. Forecasting of earthquakes is an active research area where one of the debated points is whether magnitude correlations of earthquakes exist within real world seismic data. Prior to this work, the analysis of magnitude correlations of the aforementioned self-similar model had not been addressed. Here we present statistical properties of the magnitude correlations for the self-similar model along with an analytical analysis of the branching ratio and criticality parameters.

Seismicity and stress transfer studies in eastern California and Nevada: Implications for earthquake sources and tectonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichinose, Gene Aaron

The source parameters for eastern California and western Nevada earthquakes are estimated from regionally recorded seismograms using a moment tensor inversion. We use the point source approximation and fit the seismograms, at long periods. We generated a moment tensor catalog for Mw > 4.0 since 1997 and Mw > 5.0 since 1990. The catalog includes centroid depths, seismic moments, and focal mechanisms. The regions with the most moderate sized earthquakes in the last decade were in aftershock zones located in Eureka Valley, Double Spring Flat, Coso, Ridgecrest, Fish Lake Valley, and Scotty's Junction. The remaining moderate size earthquakes were distributed across the region. The 1993 (Mw 6.0) Eureka Valley earthquake occurred in the Eastern California Shear Zone. Careful aftershock relocations were used to resolve structure from aftershock clusters. The mainshock appears to rupture along the western side of the Last Change Range along a 30° to 60° west dipping fault plane, consistent with previous geodetic modeling. We estimate the source parameters for aftershocks at source-receiver distances less than 20 km using waveform modeling. The relocated aftershocks and waveform modeling results do not indicate any significant evidence of low angle faulting (dips > 30°. The results did reveal deformation along vertical faults within the hanging-wall block, consistent with observed surface rupture along the Saline Range above the dipping fault plane. The 1994 (Mw 5.8) Double Spring Flat earthquake occurred along the eastern Sierra Nevada between overlapping normal faults. Aftershock migration and cross fault triggering occurred in the following two years, producing seventeen Mw > 4 aftershocks The source parameters for the largest aftershocks were estimated from regionally recorded seismograms using moment tensor inversion. We estimate the source parameters for two moderate sized earthquakes which occurred near Reno, Nevada, the 1995 (Mw 4.4) Border Town, and the 1998 (Mw 4.7) Incline Village Earthquakes. We test to see how such stress interactions affected a cluster of six large earthquakes (Mw 6.6 to 7.5) between 1915 to 1954 within the Central Nevada Seismic Belt. We compute the static stress changes for these earthquake using dislocation models based on the location and amount of surface rupture. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Focal Mechanisms and Stress Environment of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan, China, Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.; Luo, Y.; Ni, S.

2012-12-01

The 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw=7.9) was the largest earthquake in China ever recorded by modern seismic instruments. It generated numerous moderate sized aftershocks that were well recorded by both permanent stations as well as portable instruments deployed after the mainshock. These waveform records yield high-quality data for the determination of focal mechanisms of aftershocks, which in turn provide important information for the investigation of regional stress field and the seismogenic environment in the Wenchuan earthquake source region. In this study, we determine the focal mechanisms, depths and moment magnitudes of moderate-sized (Mw ≥ 4.0) Wenchuan aftershocks using broadband waveform records. The focal mechanism results are then used to obtain the orientation and ratio of the principle stresses by the damped linear stress inversion method of Hardebeck & Michael (2006). Our results show that the majority of the moderate aftershocks occur at a depth range of 10-20 km and outside of the major rupture zones of the mainshock. The Wenchuan source region remains under a nearly horizontal compression with mostly thrust and occasional strike-slip faulting, especially towards the two ends of the rupture of the main shock. There is also clearly local variations in the orientation of the principle stresses.

Modeling Aftershocks and Foreshocks by Time-Dependent Friction Laws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lippiello, E.; Landes, F.

2017-12-01

The transition with depth from rate-weakening to rate-strengthening rheology represents a viable mechanism to explain both afterslip and the temporal and spatial organization of aftershocks(Avouac, Annu. Rev. Eart Planet Sci. 2015).On the other hand, elastic models for seismic faults, as the Burridge-Knopoff model, are able to reproduce the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law (de Arcangelis et al., Phys. Rep. 2016). Here we show that the two approaches can be combined in a minimal model containing only a parameter controlling the heterogeneities of the friction force. The key ingredient is the presence of a time-dependent friction on a temporal scale intermediate between the instantaneous scale of fracture propagation and the very slow one of the driving rate. Several features of aftershocks as the GR law, the productivity law, the spatial clustering and the temporal decay of the aftershock number, appear universal properties independent of details of model parameters and friction law. Quantitative agreement with the Omori law constraints the friction law according to a velocity strengthening rheology. The model also provides agreement with recent experimental results on the statistical properties of foreshock occurrence (Lippiello et al. , Pageoph, 2017). We then obtain insights on the nucleation phase preceding mainshocks which we compare with existing models (Ohnaka, Tectonophysics 1992).

Earthquake statistics, spatiotemporal distribution of foci and source mechanisms - a key to understanding of the West Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake swarms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horálek, Josef; Čermáková, Hana; Fischer, Tomáš

2016-04-01

Earthquake swarms are sequences of numerous events closely clustered in space and time and do not have a single dominant mainshock. A few of the largest events in a swarm reach similar magnitudes and usually occur throughout the course of the earthquake sequence. These attributes differentiate earthquake swarms from ordinary mainshock-aftershock sequences. Earthquake swarms occur worldwide, in diverse geological units. The swarms typically accompany volcanic activity at margins of the tectonic plate but also occur in intracontinental areas where strain from tectonic-plate movement is small. The origin of earthquake swarms is still unclear. The swarms typically occur at the plate margins but also in intracontinental areas. West Bohemia-Vogtland represents one of the most active intraplate earthquake-swarm areas in Europe. It is characterised by a frequent reoccurrence of ML < 4.0 swarms and by high activity of crustal fluids. West Bohemia-Vogtland is one of the most active intraplate earthquake-swarm areas in Europe which also exhibits high activity of crustal fluids. The Nový Kostel focal zone (NK) dominates the recent seismicity, there were swarms in 1997, 2000, 2008 and 20011, and a striking non-swarm activity (mainshock-aftershock sequences) up to magnitude ML= 4.5 in May to August 2014. The swarms and the 2014 mainshock-aftershock sequences are located close to each other at depths between 6 and 13 km. The frequency-magnitude distributions of all the swarms show bimodal-like character: the most events obey the b-value = 1.0 distribution, but a group of the largest events depart significantly from it. All the ML > 2.8 swarm events are located in a few dense clusters which implies step by step rupturing of one or a few asperities during the individual swarms. The source mechanism patters (moment-tensor description, MT) of the individual swarms indicate several families of the mechanisms, which fit well geometry of respective fault segments. MTs of the most events signify pure shears except for the 1997-swarm events the MTs of which indicates a combine sources including both shear and tensile components. The origin of earthquake swarms is still unclear. Nevertheless, we infer that the individual earthquake swarms in West Bohemia-Vogtland are mixture of the mainshock-aftershock sequences which correspond to step by step rupturing of one or a few asperities. The swarms occur on short fault segments with heterogeneous stress and strength, which may be affected by pressurized crustal fluids reducing normal component of the tectonic stress and lower friction. This way critically loaded faults are brought to failure and the swarm activity is driven by the differential local stress.

Scientific overview and historical context of the 1811-1812 new Madrid earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.

2004-01-01

aftershock». These values are consistent with other lines of evidence, including scaling relationships. Finally, I show that accounts from the New Madrid sequence reveal evidence for remotely triggered earthquakes well outside the NMSZ. Remotely triggered earthquakes represent a potentially important new wrinkle in historic earthquake research, as their ground motions can sometimes be confused with mainshock ground motions.

The 2012 Emilia seismic sequence (Northern Italy): Imaging the thrust fault system by accurate aftershock location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govoni, Aladino; Marchetti, Alessandro; De Gori, Pasquale; Di Bona, Massimo; Lucente, Francesco Pio; Improta, Luigi; Chiarabba, Claudio; Nardi, Anna; Margheriti, Lucia; Agostinetti, Nicola Piana; Di Giovambattista, Rita; Latorre, Diana; Anselmi, Mario; Ciaccio, Maria Grazia; Moretti, Milena; Castellano, Corrado; Piccinini, Davide

2014-05-01

Starting from late May 2012, the Emilia region (Northern Italy) was severely shaken by an intense seismic sequence, originated from a ML 5.9 earthquake on May 20th, at a hypocentral depth of 6.3 km, with thrust-type focal mechanism. In the following days, the seismic rate remained high, counting 50 ML ≥ 2.0 earthquakes a day, on average. Seismicity spreads along a 30 km east-west elongated area, in the Po river alluvial plain, in the nearby of the cities Ferrara and Modena. Nine days after the first shock, another destructive thrust-type earthquake (ML 5.8) hit the area to the west, causing further damage and fatalities. Aftershocks following this second destructive event extended along the same east-westerly trend for further 20 km to the west, thus illuminating an area of about 50 km in length, on the whole. After the first shock struck, on May 20th, a dense network of temporary seismic stations, in addition to the permanent ones, was deployed in the meizoseismal area, leading to a sensible improvement of the earthquake monitoring capability there. A combined dataset, including three-component seismic waveforms recorded by both permanent and temporary stations, has been analyzed in order to obtain an appropriate 1-D velocity model for earthquake location in the study area. Here we describe the main seismological characteristics of this seismic sequence and, relying on refined earthquakes location, we make inferences on the geometry of the thrust system responsible for the two strongest shocks.

On comprehensive recovery of an aftershock sequence with cross correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitov, I.; Bobrov, D.; Coyne, J.; Turyomurugyendo, G.

2012-04-01

We have introduced cross correlation between seismic waveforms as a technique for signal detection and automatic event building at the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. The intuition behind signal detection is simple - small and mid-sized seismic events close in space should produce similar signals at the same seismic stations. Equivalently, these signals have to be characterized by a high cross correlation coefficient. For array stations with many individual sensors distributed over a large area, signals from events at distances beyond, say, 50 km, are subject to destructive interference when cross correlated due to changing time delays between various channels. Thus, any cross correlation coefficient above some predefined threshold can be considered as a signature of a valid signal. With a dense grid of master events (spacing between adjacent masters between 20 km and 50 km corresponds to the statistically estimated correlation distance) with high quality (signal-to-noise ratio above 10) template waveforms at primary array stations of the International Monitoring System one can detect signals from and then build natural and manmade seismic events close to the master ones. The use of cross correlation allows detecting smaller signals (sometimes below noise level) than provided by the current IDC detecting techniques. As a result it is possible to automatically build from 50% to 100% more valid seismic events than included in the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB). We have developed a tentative pipeline for automatic processing at the IDC. It includes three major stages. Firstly, we calculate cross correlation coefficient for a given master and continuous waveforms at the same stations and carry out signal detection as based on the statistical behavior of signal-to-noise ratio of the cross correlation coefficient. Secondly, a thorough screening is performed for all obtained signals using f-k analysis and F-statistics as applied to the cross-correlation traces at individual channels of all included array stations. Thirdly, local (i.e. confined to the correlation distance around the master event) association of origin times of all qualified signals is fulfilled. These origin times are calculated from the arrival times of these signals, which are reduced to the origin times by the travel times from the master event. An aftershock sequence of a mid-size earthquake is an ideal case to test cross correlation techniques for autiomatic event building. All events should be close to the mainshock and occur within several days. Here we analyse the aftershock sequence of an earthquake in the North Atlantic Ocean with mb(IDC)=4.79. The REB includes 38 events at distances less than 150 km from the mainshock. Our ultimate goal is to excersice the complete iterative procedure to find all possible aftershocks. We start with the mainshock and recover ten aftershocks with the largest number of stations to produce an initial set of master events with the highest quality templates. Then we find all aftershocks in the REB and many additional events, which were not originally found by the IDC. Using all events found after the first iteration as master events we find new events, which are also used in the next iteration. The iterative process stops when no new events can be found. In that sense the final set of aftershocks obtained with cross correlation is a comprehensive one.

Detection and location of small aftershocks using waveform cross correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitov, Ivan; Sanina, Irina; Sergeev, Sergey

2017-04-01

Aftershock sequences of earthquakes with magnitudes 5.0 and lower are difficult to detect and locate by sparse regional networks. Signals from aftershocks with magnitudes 2 to 3 are usually below detection thresholds of standard 3-C seismic stations at near regional distances. For seismic events close in space, the method waveform cross correlation (WCC) allows to reduce detection threshold by at least a unit of magnitude and to improve location precision to a few kilometers. Therefore, the WCC method is directly applicable to weak aftershock sequences. Here, we recover seismic activity after the earthquake near the town of Mariupol (Ukraine) occurred on August 7, 2016. The main shock was detected by many stations of the International monitoring system (IMS), including the closest primary IMS array stations AKASG (6.62 deg.) and BRTR (7.81), as well as 3-C station KBZ (5.00). The International data centre located this event (47.0013N, 37.5427E), estimated its origin time (08:15:4.1 UTC), magnitude (mb=4.5), and depth (6.8 km). This event was also detected by two array stations of the Institute for Dynamics of Geospheres (IDG) of the Russian Academy of Sciences: portable 3-C array RDON (3.28), which is the closest station, and MHVAR (7.96). Using signals from the main shock at five stations as waveform templates, we calculated continuous traces of cross correlation coefficient (CC) from the 7th to the 11th of August. We found that the best templates should include all regional phases, and thus, have the length from 80 s to 180 s. For detection, we used standard STA/LTA method with threshold depending on station. The accuracy of onset time estimation by the STA/LTA detector based on CC-traces is close to one sample, which varies from 0.05 s at BRTR to 0.005 s for RDON and MHVAR. Arrival times of all detected signals were reduced to origin times using the observed travel times from the main shock. Clusters of origin times are considered as event hypotheses in the phase association procedure. As a result, we found 12 aftershocks with magnitudes between 1.5 and 3.5. These small events were detected neither by the IDC nor by the near regional network of the Geophysical Survey of RAS, which has three closest 3-C stations at distances of 2.2 to 3.5 degrees from the studied earthquake. We also applied procedure of relative location and all aftershocks were found within a few km from the main shock.

Spatial and Temporal Stress Drop Variations of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, H.

2013-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence consists of foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and repeating earthquakes. To quantify spatial and temporal stress drop variations is important for understanding M9-class megathrust earthquakes. Variability and spatial and temporal pattern of stress drop is a basic information for rupture dynamics as well as useful to source modeling. As pointed in the ground motion prediction equations by Campbell and Bozorgnia [2008, Earthquake Spectra], mainshock-aftershock pairs often provide significant decrease of stress drop. We here focus strong motion records before and after the Tohoku earthquake, and analyze source spectral ratios considering azimuth- and distance dependency [Miyake et al., 2001, GRL]. Due to the limitation of station locations on land, spatial and temporal stress drop variations are estimated by adjusting shifts from the omega-squared source spectral model. The adjustment is based on the stochastic Green's function simulations of source spectra considering azimuth- and distance dependency. We assumed the same Green's functions for event pairs for each station, both the propagation path and site amplification effects are cancelled out. Precise studies of spatial and temporal stress drop variations have been performed [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2007, JGR], this study targets the relations between stress drop vs. progression of slow slip prior to the Tohoku earthquake by Kato et al. [2012, Science] and plate structures. Acknowledgement: This study is partly supported by ERI Joint Research (2013-B-05). We used the JMA unified earthquake catalogue and K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net data provided by NIED.

More major earthquakes at the Nepal Himalaya? - Study on Coulomb stress perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Som, S. K.; Sarkar, Subhrasuchi; Dasgupta, Soumitra

2018-07-01

On April 2015 a major earthquake of 7.9 Mw occurred in the Nepal Himalaya, followed by 553 earthquakes of local magnitude greater than 4.0 within the first 43 days including another major event of 7.3 Mw. We resolve the static coulomb failure stress (CFS) change onto the finite fault models of 7.9 Mw after Elliott et al. (2016) and Galezka et al. (2015) and its effect on associated receiver faults. Correlation of aftershocks with the enhanced CFS condition shows that the Elliott et al. (2016) model explains 60.4% and the Galezka et al. (2015) model explains about 47.7% of the aftershocks in high stress regions. Aftershocks were poorly spatially correlated with the enhanced CFS condition after the 7.9 Mw main shock and can be explained by correlation with release of seismic energy from the associated secondarily stressed prominent thrust planes and transverse faults. Stress resolved on the associated receiver faults show increased stress on both transverse and thrust fault systems with the potential of triggering significant aftershocks or subsequent main shocks.

Aftershocks of the India Republic Day Earthquake: the MAEC/ISTAR Temporary Seismograph Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodin, P.; Horton, S.; Johnston, A.; Patterson, G.; Bollwerk, J.; Rydelek, P.; Steiner, G.; McGoldrick, C.; Budhbhatti, K. P.; Shah, R.; Macwan, N.

2001-05-01

The MW=7.7 Republic Day (26 January, 2001) earthquake on the Kachchh in western India initiated a strong sequence of small aftershocks. Seventeen days following the mainshock, we deployed a network of portable digital event recorders as a cooperative project of the Mid America Earthquake Center in the US and the Institute for Scientific and Technological Advanced Research. Our network consisted of 8 event-triggered Kinemetrics K2 seismographs with 6 data channels (3 accelerometer, 3 Mark L-28/3d seismometer) sampled at 200 Hz, and one continuously-recording Guralp CMG40TD broad-band seismometer sampled at 220 Hz. This network was in place for 18 days. Underlying our network deployment was the notion that because of its tectonic and geologic setting the Republic Day earthquake and its aftershocks might have source and/or propagation characteristics common to earthquakes in stable continental plate-interiors rather than those on plate boundaries or within continental mobile belts. Thus, our goals were to provide data that could be used to compare the Republic Day earthquake with other earthquakes. In particular, the objectives of our network deployment were: (1) to characterize the spatial distribution and occurrence rates of aftershocks, (2) to examine source characteristics of the aftershocks (stress-drops, focal mechanisms), (3) to study the effect of deep unconsolidated sediment on wave propagation, and (4) to determine if other faults (notably the Allah Bundh) were simultaneously active. Most of our sites were on Jurassic bedrock, and all were either free-field, or on the floor of light structures built on rock or with a thin soil cover. However, one of our stations was on a section of unconsolidated sediments hundreds of meters thick adjacent to a site that was subjected to shaking-induced sediment liquefaction during the mainshock. The largest aftershock reported by global networks was an MW=5.9 event on January 28, prior to our deployment. The largest aftershock we recorded was MW=5.3. Our network recorded signals from nearly 2000 earthquakes, all on-scale.

Magnitude Scaling of the early displacement for the 2007, Mw 7.8 Tocopilla sequence (Chile)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lancieri, M.; Fuenzalida, A.; Ruiz, S.; Madariaga, R. I.

2009-12-01

We investigate the empirical relationships between the initial portion of P and S-phase and the final event magnitude, on the Tocopilla (Chile) event and its aftershocks. Such correlations, on which real-time magnitude estimation for seismic early warning is founded, have been widely studied on several data sets, merging earthquakes generated in different tectonic settings and recorded with very different networks. The Tocopilla (Mw 7.8) earthquake, occurred along the northern Chile seismic gap on 14 November 2007, provides, together with its aftershocks, a unique opportunity of studying a homogeneous data set in terms of tectonic environment, focal mechanism, and recording network. The preliminary analysis required to build the seismic catalogue includes the automatic identification of more than 570 aftershocks using an automatic phase detector and picker algorithm, and the subsequent location of the events through a non-linear and probabilistic code. The seismic moment (M0) has been calculated by spectral modeling of P and S waves, assuming a Brune omega-square model. This analysis also yields values for the corner frequency and quality factor. The estimated range of moment magnitude for the aftershocks sequence is [2.8 - 6.8]. The correlation between the low pass filtered peak displacement (PD) and the final magnitude has been investigated for 90 events with magnitude greater than 4. These include the main event, its larger aftershock (Mw 6.8 occurred twenty-four hours after the main shock), and seven events with magnitude greater than 5.7. The recovered relationships confirm the observations of Zollo et al. [2006, 2007] of a clear correlation between distance corrected PD and final magnitude in the magnitude range [4.0 - 7.4], when considering time windows of 4 sec of P- or 2 sec of S- wave. In contrast with the previous studies, when examining time windows of 2 sec of P-wave, we surprisingly do not observe any saturation effect for magnitudes greater than 6.5, but rather a slope change in the regression curve. To explain the causative link between the PD and the final magnitude, it has been argued that an earthquake fracture that initiates with a higher flow rate of the elastic energy has an increased probability of propagating to longer distances. As consequence, the stress drop and/or active slip surface have to scale with seismic moment in the initial stage of seismic ruptures. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the correlation between radiated energy (E), corner frequency (fc) and seismic moment (M0). A first analysis performed on the entire S-phase confirms that M0 is proportional to fc^3; the apparent stress drop does not depend from M0 and that the E and M0 scale with a slope of 1.5. Therefore it appears to be no clear violation of the self-similarity. The same relationships will be investigated on signal windows of 2 sec of P- and 2 sec S-wave, used for early warning.

Foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2014 M8.1 Iquique, northern Chile, megathrust earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soto, Hugo; Sippl, Christian; Schurr, Bernd; Asch, Günter; Tilmann, Frederik; Comte, Diana; Ruiz, Sergio; Oncken, Onno

2017-04-01

The M8.1 2014 Iquique earthquake broke a central piece of the long-standing, >500 km long northern Chile seismic gap. The Iquique earthquake sequence started off with a M6.7 thrust event presumably in the upper plate seaward of the Chilean coastline. Deformation was quickly transferred onto the megathrust with three more events of M>6 until it culminated in the mainshock that broke a compact asperity with possibly up to 12 m of slip two weeks later. The mainshock was followed by vigorous aftershock sequence, including a M7.7 event just south of the main slip patch approx. two days later. The whole sequence of events was well recorded by the Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC). The IPOC network was complemented quickly after the first large foreshock by 60 additional temporary seismic stations deployed by the University of Chile and the German Research Centre for Geosciences - GFZ. Processing the continuous data with an automated multi-step process for event detection, association and phase picking, we located more than 25,000 events for one month preceding and nine months following the Iquique mainshock. Whereas the foreshocks skirt around the updip limit of the mainshock asperity, the aftershocks agglomerate in two belts, one updip and one downdip of the main asperity offshore the Chilean coast. The deepest events on the plate interface reach 65 km depth in two separated clusters under the coastal cordillera, which show a significant difference in dip, indicating strong long-wavelength slab topography or a slab tear. We will also analyze upper- and deeper intra-plate seismicity and in particular its changes following the Iquique mainshock.

Aftershock Sequences and Seismic-Like Organization of Acoustic Events Produced by a Single Propagating Crack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizee, D.; Bonamy, D.

2017-12-01

In inhomogeneous brittle solids like rocks, concrete or ceramics, one usually distinguish nominally brittle fracture, driven by the propagation of a single crack from quasibrittle one, resulting from the accumulation of many microcracks. The latter goes along with intermittent sharp noise, as e.g. revealed by the acoustic emission observed in lab scale compressive fracture experiments or at geophysical scale in the seismic activity. In both cases, statistical analyses have revealed a complex time-energy organization into aftershock sequences obeying a range of robust empirical scaling laws (the Omori-Utsu, productivity and Bath's law) that help carry out seismic hazard analysis and damage mitigation. These laws are usually conjectured to emerge from the collective dynamics of microcrack nucleation. In the experiments presented at AGU, we will show that such a statistical organization is not specific to the quasi-brittle multicracking situations, but also rules the acoustic events produced by a single crack slowly driven in an artificial rock made of sintered polymer beads. This simpler situation has advantageous properties (statistical stationarity in particular) permitting us to uncover the origins of these seismic laws: Both productivity law and Bath's law result from the scale free statistics for event energy and Omori-Utsu law results from the scale-free statistics of inter-event time. This yields predictions on how the associated parameters are related, which were analytically derived. Surprisingly, the so-obtained relations are also compatible with observations on lab scale compressive fracture experiments, suggesting that, in these complex multicracking situations also, the organization into aftershock sequences and associated seismic laws are also ruled by the propagation of individual microcrack fronts, and not by the collective, stress-mediated, microcrack nucleation. Conversely, the relations are not fulfilled in seismology signals, suggesting that additional ingredient should be taken into account.

Statistical analysis of the induced Basel 2006 earthquake sequence: introducing a probability-based monitoring approach for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmann, C. E.; Wiemer, S.; Woessner, J.; Hainzl, S.

2011-08-01

Geothermal energy is becoming an important clean energy source, however, the stimulation of a reservoir for an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) is associated with seismic risk due to induced seismicity. Seismicity occurring due to the water injection at depth have to be well recorded and monitored. To mitigate the seismic risk of a damaging event, an appropriate alarm system needs to be in place for each individual experiment. In recent experiments, the so-called traffic-light alarm system, based on public response, local magnitude and peak ground velocity, was used. We aim to improve the pre-defined alarm system by introducing a probability-based approach; we retrospectively model the ongoing seismicity in real time with multiple statistical forecast models and then translate the forecast to seismic hazard in terms of probabilities of exceeding a ground motion intensity level. One class of models accounts for the water injection rate, the main parameter that can be controlled by the operators during an experiment. By translating the models into time-varying probabilities of exceeding various intensity levels, we provide tools which are well understood by the decision makers and can be used to determine thresholds non-exceedance during a reservoir stimulation; this, however, remains an entrepreneurial or political decision of the responsible project coordinators. We introduce forecast models based on the data set of an EGS experiment in the city of Basel. Between 2006 December 2 and 8, approximately 11 500 m3 of water was injected into a 5-km-deep well at high pressures. A six-sensor borehole array, was installed by the company Geothermal Explorers Limited (GEL) at depths between 300 and 2700 m around the well to monitor the induced seismicity. The network recorded approximately 11 200 events during the injection phase, more than 3500 of which were located. With the traffic-light system, actions where implemented after an ML 2.7 event, the water injection was reduced and then stopped after another ML 2.5 event. A few hours later, an earthquake with ML 3.4, felt within the city, occurred, which led to bleed-off of the well. A risk study was later issued with the outcome that the experiment could not be resumed. We analyse the statistical features of the sequence and show that the sequence is well modelled with the Omori-Utsu law following the termination of water injection. Based on this model, the sequence will last 31+29/-14 years to reach the background level. We introduce statistical models based on Reasenberg and Jones and Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models, commonly used to model aftershock sequences. We compare and test different model setups to simulate the sequences, varying the number of fixed and free parameters. For one class of the ETAS models, we account for the flow rate at the injection borehole. We test the models against the observed data with standard likelihood tests and find the ETAS model accounting for the on flow rate to perform best. Such a model may in future serve as a valuable tool for designing probabilistic alarm systems for EGS experiments.

The Effects of Travel Path and Source Structure on the Character of Regional Distance Seismograms from Nuclear Explosions

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-12-27

and had a ML of 6.4. The earthquake sequence was very energetic, having a foreshock with a ML of 5.9 and three large aftershocks measuring 5.8, 5.6...regional data-A review, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 72, S89-S129. Smith, K. D., and K. F. Priestley (1988). The foreshock sequence of the 1986 Chalfant

Short-term forecasting of aftershock sequences, microseismicity and swarms inside the Corinth Gulf continental rift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segou, Margarita

2014-05-01

Corinth Gulf (Central Greece) is the fastest continental rift in the world with extension rates 11-15 mm/yr with diverse seismic deformation including earthquakes with M greater than 6.0, several periods of increased microseismic activity, usually lasting few months and possibly related with fluid diffusion, and swarm episodes lasting few days. In this study I perform a retrospective forecast experiment between 1995-2012, focusing on the comparison between physics-based and statistical models for short term time classes. Even though Corinth gulf has been studied extensively in the past there is still today a debate whether earthquake activity is related with the existence of either a shallow dipping structure or steeply dipping normal faults. In the light of the above statement, two CRS realization are based on resolving Coulomb stress changes on specified receiver faults, expressing the aforementioned structural models, whereas the third CRS model uses optimally-oriented for failure planes. The CRS implementation accounts for stress changes following all major ruptures with M greater than 4.5 within the testing phase. I also estimate fault constitutive parameters from modeling the response to major earthquakes at the vicinity of the gulf (Aσ=0.2, stressing rate app. 0.02 bar/yr). The generic ETAS parameters are taken as the maximum likelihood estimates derived from the stochastic declustering of the modern seismicity catalog (1995-2012) with minimum triggering magnitude M2.5. I test whether the generic ETAS can efficiently describe the aftershock spatio-temporal clustering but also the evolution of swarm episodes and microseismicity. For the reason above, I implement likelihood tests to evaluate the forecasts for their spatial consistency and for the total amount of predicted versus observed events with M greater than 3.0 in 10-day time windows during three distinct evaluation phases; the first evaluation phase focuses on the Aigio 1995 aftershock sequence (15/06/1995, M6.4), the second covers the period between September 2006-May 2007, characterized for its intense microseismicity, and the third is related with the May 2013 swarm. The conclusions support that (1) geology based CRS models are preferred over optimally oriented planes (2) CRS models are consistent forecasters (60-70%) of transient seismicity, having in most cases comparable performance with ETAS models (3) microseismicity and swarms are not triggered by static stress changes of preceding local events with magnitude M greater than 4.5 and (4) the generic ETAS model can efficiently describe the recent swarm episode. The findings of this study have a number of important implications for future short-term forecasting and time-dependent hazard within Corinth Gulf.

Tidal triggering of earthquakes in the Ning'er area of Yunnan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Chaodi; Lei, Xinglin; Zhao, Xiaoyan; Ma, Qingbo; Yang, Simeng; Wang, Yingnan

2017-05-01

To investigate the potential effect of tidal modulation on the seismicity in the Ning'er area, a seismically and geothermally active zone in Yunnan Province, China, we studied the correlation between Earth tides and the occurrence of M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes dating back to 1970, as well as their aftershock sequences, using theoretically calculated tidal stresses and a statistical test. The results show a significant correlation between Earth tides and the occurrence of earthquakes. Six of seven main events occurred when the Earth tide increased the Coulomb failure stress on the source fault. Four main events occurred in a narrow range of phase angle corresponding to the maximum loading rate of tidal stress. Furthermore, the histories of the aftershock sequence as a function of the tidal phases demonstrate clear tidal modulation with a high significance. Thus, we conclude that Earth tides have a clear role in triggering (or modulating) the rupture of the fault systems in the Ning'er area.

Post-earthquake building safety assessments for the Canterbury Earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marshall, J.; Barnes, J.; Gould, N.; Jaiswal, K.; Lizundia, B.; Swanson, David A.; Turner, F.

2012-01-01

This paper explores the post-earthquake building assessment program that was utilized in Christchurch, New Zealand following the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes beginning with the Magnitude (Mw.) 7.1 Darfield event in September 2010. The aftershocks or triggered events, two of which exceeded Mw 6.0, continued with events in February and June 2011 causing the greatest amount of damage. More than 70,000 building safety assessments were completed following the February event. The timeline and assessment procedures will be discussed including the use of rapid response teams, selection of indicator buildings to monitor damage following aftershocks, risk assessments for demolition of red-tagged buildings, the use of task forces to address management of the heavily damaged downtown area and the process of demolition. Through the post-event safety assessment program that occurred throughout the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes, many important lessons can be learned that will benefit future response to natural hazards that have potential to damage structures.

Frequency-dependent seismic attenuation in the eastern United States as observed from the 2011 central Virginia earthquake and aftershock sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNamara, Daniel E.; Gee, Lind; Benz, Harley M.; Chapman, Martin

2014-01-01

Ground shaking due to earthquakes in the eastern United States (EUS) is felt at significantly greater distances than in the western United States (WUS) and for some earthquakes it has been shown to display a strong preferential direction. Shaking intensity variation can be due to propagation path effects, source directivity, and/or site amplification. In this paper, we use S and Lg waves recorded from the 2011 central Virginia earthquake and aftershock sequence, in the Central Virginia Seismic Zone, to quantify attenuation as frequency‐dependent Q(f). In support of observations based on shaking intensity, we observe high Q values in the EUS relative to previous studies in the WUS with especially efficient propagation along the structural trend of the Appalachian mountains. Our analysis of Q(f) quantifies the path effects of the northeast‐trending felt distribution previously inferred from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “Did You Feel It” data, historic intensity data, and the asymmetrical distribution of rockfalls and landslides.

Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyst, M.

2012-12-01

The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses due to events of varying severities and recurrence intervals, annual premium rates can be set with some longer term risk planning in mind. However, this metric is particularly sensitive to high frequency, moderate magnitude events. Inclusion of earthquake aftershock sequence characteristics into the stochastic event set may have a strong impact on the AAL, depending on the time window of aftershocks that is taken into account. We will present our model of the aftershock-derived, time-dependent hazard for the region of the two earthquakes and will bring about a detailed view on regional, short-term hazard. Dealing with this short-term hazard poses a challenge to the earthquake insurance business. In this presentation we will look at these short-term hazard changes from a risk perspective and quantify the impact on earthquake risk in terms of the main risk metrics used in the industry.

Ground Deformation and Sources geometry of the 2016 Central Italy Earthquake Sequence Investigated through Analytical and Numerical Modeling of DInSAR Measurements and Structural-Geological Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solaro, G.; Bonano, M.; Boncio, P.; Brozzetti, F.; Castaldo, R.; Casu, F.; Cirillo, D.; Cheloni, D.; De Luca, C.; De Nardis, R.; De Novellis, V.; Ferrarini, F.; Lanari, R.; Lavecchia, G.; Manunta, M.; Manzo, M.; Pepe, A.; Pepe, S.; Tizzani, P.; Zinno, I.

2017-12-01

The 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence started on 24th August with a MW 6.1 event, where the intra-Apennine WSW-dipping Vettore-Gorzano extensional fault system released a destructive earthquake, causing 300 casualties and extensive damage to the town of Amatrice and surroundings. We generated several interferograms by using ALOS and Sentinel 1-A and B constellation data acquired on both ascending and descending orbits to show that most displacement is characterized by two main subsiding lobes of about 20 cm on the fault hanging-wall. By inverting the generated interferograms, following the Okada analytical approach, the modelling results account for two sources related to main shock and more energetic aftershock. Through Finite Element numerical modelling that jointly exploits DInSAR deformation measurements and structural-geological data, we reconstruct the 3D source of the Amatrice 2016 normal fault earthquake which well fit the main shock. The inversion shows that the co-seismic displacement area was partitioned on two distinct en echelon fault planes, which at the main event hypocentral depth (8 km) merge in one single WSW-dipping surface. Slip peaks were higher along the southern half of the Vettore fault, lower along the northern half of Gorzano fault and null in the relay zone between the two faults; field evidence of co-seismic surface rupture are coherent with the reconstructed scenario. The following seismic sequence was characterized by numerous aftershocks located southeast and northwest of the epicenter which decreased in frequency and magnitude until the end of October, when a MW 5.9 event occurred on 26th October about 25 km to the NW of the previous mainshock. Then, on 30th October, a third large event of magnitude MW 6.5 nucleated below the town of Norcia, striking the area between the two preceding events and filling the gap between the previous ruptures. Also in this case, we exploit a large dataset of DInSAR and GPS measurements to investigate the ground displacement field and to determine, by using elastic dislocation modelling, the geometries and slip distributions of the causative normal fault segments.

The failure of earthquake failure models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.

2001-01-01

In this study I show that simple heuristic models and numerical calculations suggest that an entire class of commonly invoked models of earthquake failure processes cannot explain triggering of seismicity by transient or "dynamic" stress changes, such as stress changes associated with passing seismic waves. The models of this class have the common feature that the physical property characterizing failure increases at an accelerating rate when a fault is loaded (stressed) at a constant rate. Examples include models that invoke rate state friction or subcritical crack growth, in which the properties characterizing failure are slip or crack length, respectively. Failure occurs when the rate at which these grow accelerates to values exceeding some critical threshold. These accelerating failure models do not predict the finite durations of dynamically triggered earthquake sequences (e.g., at aftershock or remote distances). Some of the failure models belonging to this class have been used to explain static stress triggering of aftershocks. This may imply that the physical processes underlying dynamic triggering differs or that currently applied models of static triggering require modification. If the former is the case, we might appeal to physical mechanisms relying on oscillatory deformations such as compaction of saturated fault gouge leading to pore pressure increase, or cyclic fatigue. However, if dynamic and static triggering mechanisms differ, one still needs to ask why static triggering models that neglect these dynamic mechanisms appear to explain many observations. If the static and dynamic triggering mechanisms are the same, perhaps assumptions about accelerating failure and/or that triggering advances the failure times of a population of inevitable earthquakes are incorrect.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dieterich, J.H.; Kilgore, B.

1996-01-01

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance D(c), apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time- dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of D, apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of D(c) is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

PubMed

Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

1996-04-30

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

The 2012 Strike-slip Earthquake Sequence in Black Sea and its Link to the Caucasus Collision Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, T. L.; Hsu, C. H.; Legendre, C. P.; Jian, P. R.; Huang, B. S.; Karakhanian, A.; Chen, C. W.

2016-12-01

The Black Sea formed as a back-arc basin in Late Cretaceous to Paleogene with lots of extensional features. However, the Black Sea is now tectonically stable and absent of notable earthquakes except for the coastal region. In this study we invert regional waveforms of a new seismic array to constrain the focal mechanisms and depths of the 2012/12/23 earthquake sequence occurred in northeastern Black Sea basin that can provide unique estimates on the stress field in the region. The results show that the focal mechanisms for the main shock and 5 larger aftershocks are all strike-slip faulting and resembling with each other. The main rupture fall along the vertical dipping, NW-SE trending sinistral fault indicated by the lineation of most aftershocks. The fault strike and aftershock distribution are both consistent with the Shatsky Ridge, which is continental in nature but large normal faults was created by previous subsidence. The occurrence of 2012 earthquakes can be re-activated, as strike-slip, on one of the pre-existing normal fault cutting at depth nearly 20-30 km in the extended crust. Some of the aftershocks, including a larger one occurred 5 days later, are distributed toward NE direction 20 km away from main fault zone. Those events might be triggered by the main shock along a conjugate fault, which is surprisingly at the extension of proposed transform fault perpendicular to the rift axis of eastern Black Sea Basin. The focal mechanisms also indicate that the maximum compression in northeast Black Sea is at E-W direction, completely different from the N-S compression in the Caucasus and East Turkey controlled by Arabia-Eurasia collision. The origin of E-W maximum compression is probably the same as the secondary stress inferred from earthquakes in Racha region of the Greater Caucasus.

Coseismic fault slip associated with the 1992 M(sub w) 6.1 Joshua Tree, California, earthquake: Implications for the Joshua Tree-Landers earthquake sequence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bennett, Richard A.; Reilinger, Robert E.; Rodi, William; Li, Yingping; Toksoz, M. Nafi; Hudnut, Ken

1995-01-01

Coseismic surface deformation associated with the M(sub w) 6.1, April 23, 1992, Joshua Tree earthquake is well represented by estimates of geodetic monument displacements at 20 locations independently derived from Global Positioning System and trilateration measurements. The rms signal to noise ratio for these inferred displacements is 1.8 with near-fault displacement estimates exceeding 40 mm. In order to determine the long-wavelength distribution of slip over the plane of rupture, a Tikhonov regularization operator is applied to these estimates which minimizes stress variability subject to purely right-lateral slip and zero surface slip constraints. The resulting slip distribution yields a geodetic moment estimate of 1.7 x 10(exp 18) N m with corresponding maximum slip around 0.8 m and compares well with independent and complementary information including seismic moment and source time function estimates and main shock and aftershock locations. From empirical Green's functions analyses, a rupture duration of 5 s is obtained which implies a rupture radius of 6-8 km. Most of the inferred slip lies to the north of the hypocenter, consistent with northward rupture propagation. Stress drop estimates are in the range of 2-4 MPa. In addition, predicted Coulomb stress increases correlate remarkably well with the distribution of aftershock hypocenters; most of the aftershocks occur in areas for which the mainshock rupture produced stress increases larger than about 0.1 MPa. In contrast, predicted stress changes are near zero at the hypocenter of the M(sub w) 7.3, June 28, 1992, Landers earthquake which nucleated about 20 km beyond the northernmost edge of the Joshua Tree rupture. Based on aftershock migrations and the predicted static stress field, we speculate that redistribution of Joshua Tree-induced stress perturbations played a role in the spatio-temporal development of the earth sequence culminating in the Landers event.

Wenchuan Event Detection And Localization Using Waveform Correlation Coupled With Double Difference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slinkard, M.; Heck, S.; Schaff, D. P.; Young, C. J.; Richards, P. G.

2014-12-01

The well-studied Wenchuan aftershock sequence triggered by the May 12, 2008, Ms 8.0, mainshock offers an ideal test case for evaluating the effectiveness of using waveform correlation coupled with double difference relocation to detect and locate events in a large aftershock sequence. We use Sandia's SeisCorr detector to process 3 months of data recorded by permanent IRIS and temporary ASCENT stations using templates from events listed in a global catalog to find similar events in the raw data stream. Then we take the detections and relocate them using the double difference method. We explore both the performance that can be expected with using just a small number of stations, and, the benefits of reprocessing a well-studied sequence such as this one using waveform correlation to find even more events. We benchmark our results against previously published results describing relocations of regional catalog data. Before starting this project, we had examples where with just a few stations at far-regional distances, waveform correlation combined with double difference did and impressive job of detection and location events with precision at the few hundred and even tens of meters level.

The 2016 Kumamoto-Oita earthquake sequence: aftershock seismicity gap and dynamic triggering in volcanic areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchide, Takahiko; Horikawa, Haruo; Nakai, Misato; Matsushita, Reiken; Shigematsu, Norio; Ando, Ryosuke; Imanishi, Kazutoshi

2016-11-01

The 2016 Kumamoto-Oita earthquake sequence involving three large events ( M w ≥ 6) in the central Kyushu Island, southwest Japan, activated seismicities in two volcanic areas with unusual and puzzling spatial gaps after the largest earthquake ( M w 7.0) of April 16, 2016. We attempt to reveal the seismic process during the sequence by following seismological data analyses. Our hypocenter relocation result implies that the large events ruptured different faults of a complex fault system. A slip inversion analysis of the largest event indicates a large slip in the seismicity gap (Aso gap) in the caldera of Mt. Aso, which probably released accumulated stress and resulted in little aftershock production. We identified that the largest event dynamically triggered a mid-M6 event at Yufuin (80 km northeast of the epicenter), which is consistent with existence of the 20-km long zone where seismicity was activated and surface offset was observed. These findings will help us study the contribution of the identified complexity in fault geometries and the geotherm in the volcanic areas to the revealed seismic process and consequently improve our understanding of the seismo-volcano tectonics.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

2016-04-01

We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

Omori's Law Applied to Mining-Induced Seismicity and Re-entry Protocol Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallejos, J. A.; McKinnon, S. D.

2010-02-01

This paper describes a detailed study of the Modified Omori's law n( t) = K/( c + t) p applied to 163 mining-induced aftershock sequences from four different mine environments in Ontario, Canada. We demonstrate, using a rigorous statistical analysis, that this equation can be adequately used to describe the decay rate of mining-induced aftershock sequences. The parameters K, p and c are estimated using a uniform method that employs the maximum likelihood procedure and the Anderson-Darling statistic. To estimate consistent decay parameters, the method considers only the time interval that satisfies power-law behavior. The p value differs from sequence to sequence, with most (98%) ranging from 0.4 to 1.6. The parameter K can be satisfactorily expressed by: K = κN 1, where κ is an activity ratio and N 1 is the measured number of events occurring during the first hour after the principal event. The average κ values are in a well-defined range. Theoretically κ ≤ 0.8, and empirically κ ∈ [0.3-0.5]. These two findings enable us to develop a real-time event rate re-entry protocol 1 h after the principal event. Despite the fact that the Omori formula is temporally self-similar, we found a characteristic time T MC at the maximum curvature point, which is a function of Omori's law parameters. For a time sequence obeying an Omori process, T MC marks the transition from highest to lowest event rate change. Using solely the aftershock decay rate, therefore, we recommend T MC as a preliminary estimate of the time at which it may be considered appropriate to re-enter an area affected by a blast or large event. We found that T MC can be estimated without specifying a p value by the expression: T MC = a N {1/ b }, where a and b are two parameters dependent on local conditions. Both parameters presented well-constrained empirical ranges for the sites analyzed: a ∈ [0.3-0.5] and b ∈ [0.5-0.7]. These findings provide concise and well-justified guidelines for event rate re-entry protocol development.

Solving for source parameters using nested array data: A case study from the Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neighbors, Corrie; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Ryan, Kenneth; Kaiser, Anna E.

2017-01-01

The seismic spectrum can be constructed by assuming a Brune spectral model and estimating the parameters of seismic moment (M0), corner frequency (fc), and high-frequency site attenuation (κ). Using seismic data collected during the 2010–2011 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence, we apply the non-linear least-squares Gauss–Newton method, a deterministic downhill optimization technique, to simultaneously determine the M0, fc, and κ for each event-station pair. We fit the Brune spectral acceleration model to Fourier-transformed S-wave records following application of path and site corrections to the data. For each event, we solve for a single M0 and fc, while any remaining residual kappa, κr">κrκr, is allowed to differ per station record to reflect varying high-frequency falloff due to path and site attenuation. We use a parametric forward modeling method, calculating initial M0 and fc values from the local GNS New Zealand catalog Mw, GNS magnitudes and measuring an initial κr">κrκr using an automated high-frequency linear regression method. Final solutions for M0, fc, and κr">κrκr are iteratively computed through minimization of the residual function, and the Brune model stress drop is then calculated from the final, best-fit fc. We perform the spectral fitting routine on nested array seismic data that include the permanent GeoNet accelerometer network as well as a dense network of nearly 200 Quake Catcher Network (QCN) MEMs accelerometers, analyzing over 180 aftershocks Mw,GNS ≥ 3.5 that occurred from 9 September 2010 to 31 July 2011. QCN stations were hosted by public volunteers and served to fill spatial gaps between existing GeoNet stations. Moment magnitudes determined using the spectral fitting procedure (Mw,SF) range from 3.5 to 5.7 and agree well with Mw,GNS, with a median difference of 0.09 and 0.17 for GeoNet and QCN records, respectively, and 0.11 when data from both networks are combined. The majority of events are calculated to have stress drops between 1.7 and 13 MPa (20th and 80th percentile, correspondingly) for the combined networks. The overall median stress drop for the combined networks is 3.2 MPa, which is similar to median stress drops previously reported for the Canterbury sequence. We do not observe a correlation between stress drop and depth for this region, nor a relationship between stress drop and magnitude over the catalog considered. Lateral spatial patterns in stress drop, such as a cluster of aftershocks near the eastern extent of the Greendale fault with higher stress drops and lower stress drops for aftershocks of the 2011 Mw,GNS 6.2 Christchurch mainshock, are found to be in agreement with previous reports. As stress drop is arguably a method-dependent calculation and subject to high spatial variability, our results using the parametric Gauss–Newton algorithm strengthen conclusions that the Canterbury sequence has stress drops that are more similar to those found in intraplate regions, with overall higher stress drops that are typically observed in tectonically active areas.

Rupture behaviors of the 2010 Jiashian and 2016 Meinong Earthquakes: Implication for interaction of two asperities on the Chishan Transfer Fault Zone in SW Taiwan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, P. R.; Hung, S. H.; Chen, Y. L.; Meng, L.; Tseng, T. L.

2017-12-01

After about 45 years of seismic quiescence, southwest Taiwan was imperiled by two strong earthquakes, the 2010 Mw 6.2 Jiashian and deadly 2016 Mw 6.4 Meinong earthquakes in the last decade. The focal mechanisms and their aftershock distributions imply that both events occurred on NW-SE striking, shallow-dipping fault planes but at different depths of 21 and 16 km, respectively. Here we present the MUSIC back projection images using high-frequency P- and sP-waves recorded in the European and Australian seismic networks, the directivity analysis using global teleseismic P waves and relocated aftershocks to characterize the rupture behaviors of the two mainshocks and explore the potential connection between them. The results for the Meinong event indicate a unilateral, subhorizontal rupture propagating NW-ward 17 km and lasting for 6-7 s [Jian et al., 2017]. For the Jiashian event, the rupture initiated at a greater depth of 21 km and then propagated both NW-ward and up-dip ( 16o) on the fault plane, with a shorter rupture length of 10 km and duration of 4-5 s. The up-dip propagation is corroborated by the 3-D directivity analysis that leads to the widths of P-wave pulses increasing linearly with the directivity parameter. Moreover, relocation of aftershocks reveals that the Jiashian sequence is confined in a NW-SE elongated zone extending 15 km and 5 km shallower than the hypocenter. The Meinong aftershock sequence shows three clusters: one surrounding the mainshock hypocenter, another one distributed northwestern and deeper (>20 km) off the rupture plane beneath Tainan, and the other distant shallow-focus one (<10 km) beneath the southern Central Mountain Range. As evidenced by similar focal mechanism, rupture behaviors, as well as the spatial configuration of the mainshock rupture zones and aftershock distributions, we attribute the Jiashian and Meinong earthquakes to two asperities on a buried oblique fault that has been reactivated recently, the NW-SE striking Chishan Transfer Fault Zone as a likely candidate rupture plane. In 2010, the Jiasian earthquake initiated at the deeper NE asperity and propagated NW-ward and up-dip. Six years later, the stronger shallower asperity responsible for the Meinong event was statically triggered, which consequently caused the ruinous destruction in SW Taiwan.

A high-resolution aftershock seismicity image of the 2002 Sultandaği-Çay earthquake (Mw = 6.2), Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ergin, Mehmet; Aktar, Mustafa; Özalaybey, Serdar; Tapirdamaz, Mustafa C.; Selvi, Oguz; Tarancioglu, Adil

2009-10-01

A moderate-size earthquake (Mw = 6.2) occurred on 3 February 2002 (07:11:28 GMT) in the Sultandağı-Çay region of southwest Turkey. The mainshock was followed by a strong aftershock of Mw = 6.0 just 2 h after the mainshock, at 09:26:49 GMT. A temporary seismic network of 27 vertical component seismometers was installed to monitor aftershock activity. One thousand sixty nine aftershocks (0.2 < ML < 3.3) were recorded during the period from 5 to 10 February 2002. We analyzed the P and S arrival times and P wave first motion data to obtain high-quality hypocenters and focal mechanisms, which revealed fine details of the fault zone. We infer that the mainshock has ruptured a segment of the Sultandağ Fault Zone that is approximately 37 km long and 7 km wide at depth. The average slip over the rupture plane during the mainshock is estimated to be 32 cm. The linear distribution of the aftershocks and the location of the mainshock epicenter suggest that rupture has initiated in the eastern bending of the fault and propagated unilaterally to the west. The majority of fault plane solutions indicate E-W to ESE-WNW striking oblique-normal faulting mechanisms with an average dip angle of 62° N ± 10° . The high-resolution aftershock seismicity image also shows that faulting involved a complex array of synthetic and possibly antithetic structures during the evolution of the aftershock sequence. The steady increase of the b value towards the west implies that the highest moment release of the mainshock occurred to the west of the epicenter. The study clearly shows the activation of the WNW-ESE-trending Sultandağ Fault Zone along the southern margin of the Akşehir-Afyon Graben (AAG). The westernmost end of the aftershock activity corresponds to a structurally complex zone distinct from the main rupture. It is characterized by both ENE-WSW- and NNE-SSW-trending oblique-slip normal faulting mechanisms, the latter being associated with the NNE-SSW-trending Karamık Graben. The intersection of these two grabens, AAG and Karamık Graben, provides abundant faults available for failure in this region. The occurrence pattern of large events in recent years indicates a possible migration of earthquakes from east to west. Thus, we conclude that this has an important implication for earthquake hazard for the city of Afyon, which lies along the same fault line and only 20 km west of the termination point of the aftershock zone.

An Anatomy of a Seismic Sequence in a Deep Gold Mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibowicz, S. J.

1997-12-01

An unusual swarm-like seismic sequence occurred in April 1993 at the Western Deep Levels gold mine, South Africa. Altogether 199 events with moment magnitude from -0.5 to 3.1 were recorded and located by the mine seismic network. The sequence lasted 12 days and was composed in fact of four main shock-aftershocks sequences, closely following each other in space and time. The events were confined to a volume of rock extending to 670 m in the N-S, 630 m in the E-W, and 390 m in the vertical directions. The first sequence lasted 179 hours and the second only 13 hours, being interrupted by the third sequence which lasted 31 hours, being in turn interrupted by the fourth sequence. The parameter p, describing the rate of occurrence of aftershocks, ranged from 0.7 to 1. The first sequence is characterized by the lowest value of the fractal correlation dimension D = 1.75 and the second by the highest value of D = 2.4, whereas the third and fourth sequences are characterized by the middle value of D = 1.9.¶The corner frequencies of P and S waves are in close proximity and range from 14 to 220 Hz. A display of source parameters as a function of time shows that the four main shocks are most distinctly marked by their source radius. For 46 events a moment tensor inversion was performed. In most cases the double-couple component is dominant, ranging from 60 to 90 percent of the solution. The double-couple solutions correspond to the same number of normal and reverse faults and oblique-slip focal mechanisms. An analysis of space distribution of P, T and B axes reveals that the distribution of B axes is the most regular.

A simple model for strong ground motions and response spectra

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safak, Erdal; Mueller, Charles; Boatwright, John

1988-01-01

A simple model for the description of strong ground motions is introduced. The model shows that response spectra can be estimated by using only four parameters of the ground motion, the RMS acceleration, effective duration and two corner frequencies that characterize the effective frequency band of the motion. The model is windowed band-limited white noise, and is developed by studying the properties of two functions, cumulative squared acceleration in the time domain, and cumulative squared amplitude spectrum in the frequency domain. Applying the methods of random vibration theory, the model leads to a simple analytical expression for the response spectra. The accuracy of the model is checked by using the ground motion recordings from the aftershock sequences of two different earthquakes and simulated accelerograms. The results show that the model gives a satisfactory estimate of the response spectra.

Did stress triggering cause the large off-fault aftershocks of the 25 March 1998 MW=8.1 Antarctic plate earthquake?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.

2000-01-01

The 1998 Antarctic plate earthquake produced clusters of aftershocks (MW ??? 6.4) up to 80 km from the fault rupture and up to 100 km beyond the end of the rupture. Because the mainshock occurred far from the nearest plate boundary and the nearest recorded earthquake, it is unusually isolated from the stress perturbations caused by other earthquakes, making it a good candidate for stress transfer analysis despite the absence of near-field observations. We tested whether the off-fault aftershocks lie in regions brought closer to Coulomb failure by the main rupture. We evaluated four published source models for the main rupture. In fourteen tests using different aftershocks sets and allowing the rupture sources to be shifted within their uncertainties, 6 were significant at ??? 99% confidence, 3 at > 95% confidence, and 5 were not significant (< 95% level). For the 9 successful tests, the stress at the site of the aftershocks was typically increased by 1-2 bars (0.1-0.2 MPa). Thus the Antarctic plate event, together with the 1992 MW=7.3 Landers and its MW=6.5 Big Bear aftershock 40 km from the main fault, supply evidence that small stress changes might indeed trigger large earthquakes far from the main fault rupture.

Larger aftershocks happen farther away: nonseparability of magnitude and spatial distributions of aftershocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Shaw, Bruce E.

2015-01-01

Aftershocks may be driven by stress concentrations left by the main shock rupture or by elastic stress transfer to adjacent fault sections or strands. Aftershocks that occur within the initial rupture may be limited in size, because the scale of the stress concentrations should be smaller than the primary rupture itself. On the other hand, aftershocks that occur on adjacent fault segments outside the primary rupture may have no such size limitation. Here we use high-precision double-difference relocated earthquake catalogs to demonstrate that larger aftershocks occur farther away than smaller aftershocks, when measured from the centroid of early aftershock activity—a proxy for the initial rupture. Aftershocks as large as or larger than the initiating event nucleate almost exclusively in the outer regions of the aftershock zone. This observation is interpreted as a signature of elastic rebound in the earthquake catalog and can be used to improve forecasting of large aftershocks.

On the origin of diverse aftershock mechanisms following the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kilb, Debi; Ellis, M.; Gomberg, J.; Davis, S.

1997-01-01

We test the hypothesis that the origin of the diverse suite of aftershock mechanisms following the 1989 M 7.1 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake is related to the post-main-shock static stress field. We use a 3-D boundary-element algorithm to calculate static stresses, combined with a Coulomb failure criterion to calculate conjugate failure planes at aftershock locations. The post-main-shock static stress field is taken as the sum of a pre-existing stress field and changes in stress due to the heterogeneous slip across the Loma Prieta rupture plane. The background stress field is assumed to be either a simple shear parallel to the regional trend of the San Andreas fault or approximately fault-normal compression. A suite of synthetic aftershock mechanisms from the conjugate failure planes is generated and quantitatively compared (allowing for uncertainties in both mechanism parameters and earthquake locations) to well-constrained mechanisms reported in the US Geological Survey Northern California Seismic Network catalogue. We also compare calculated rakes with those observed by resolving the calculated stress tensor onto observed focal mechanism nodal planes, assuming either plane to be a likely rupture plane. Various permutations of the assumed background stress field, frictional coefficients of aftershock fault planes, methods of comparisons, etc. explain between 52 and 92 per cent of the aftershock mechanisms. We can explain a similar proportion of mechanisms however by comparing a randomly reordered catalogue with the various suites of synthetic aftershocks. The inability to duplicate aftershock mechanisms reliably on a one-to-one basis is probably a function of the combined uncertainties in models of main-shock slip distribution, the background stress field, and aftershock locations. In particular we show theoretically that any specific main-shock slip distribution and a reasonable background stress field are able to generate a highly variable suite of failure planes such that quite different aftershock mechanisms may be expected to occur within a kilometre or less of each other. This scale of variability is less than the probable location error of aftershock earthquakes in the Loma Prieta region. We successfully duplicate a measure of the variability in the mechanisms of the entire suite of aftershocks. If static stress changes are responsible for the generation of aftershock mechanisms, we are able to place quantitative constraints on the level of stress that must have existed in the upper crust prior to the Loma Prieta rupture. This stress level appears to be too low to generate the average slip across the main-shock rupture plane. Possible reasons for this result range from incorrect initial assumptions of homogeneity in the background stress field, friction and fault geometry to driving stresses that arise from deeper in the crust or upper mantle. Alternatively, aftershock focal mechanisms may be determined by processes other than, or in addition to, static stress changes, such as pore-pressure changes or dynamic stresses.

Source parameters and effects of bandwidth and local geology on high- frequency ground motions observed for aftershocks of the northeastern Ohio earthquake of 31 January 1986

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glassmoyer, G.; Borcherdt, R.D.

1990-01-01

A 10-station array (GEOS) yielded recordings of exceptional bandwidth (400 sps) and resolution (up to 96 dB) for the aftershocks of the moderate (mb???4.9) earthquake that occurred on 31 January 1986 near Painesville, Ohio. Nine aftershocks were recorded with seismic moments ranging between 9 ?? 1016 and 3 ?? 1019 dyne-cm (MW: 0.6 to 2.3). The aftershock recordings at a site underlain by ???8m of lakeshore sediments show significant levels of high-frequency soil amplification of vertical motion at frequencies near 8, 20 and 70 Hz. Viscoelastic models for P and SV waves incident at the base of the sediments yield estimates of vertical P-wave response consistent with the observed high-frequency site resonances, but suggest additional detailed shear-wave logs are needed to account for observed S-wave response. -from Authors

Estimation of Static Coulomb Stress Change and Strong Motion Simulation for Jiuzhaigou 7.0 Earthquake Base on SENTINEL-1 Insar Data Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, W. H.; Luo, Y.; Jiao, Q. S.

2018-04-01

On August 8, 2017, an earthquake of M 7.0 occurred at Jiuzhaigou. Based on the Sentinel-1 satellite InSAR data, we obtained coseismic deformation field and inverted the source slip model. Results show that this event is dominated by strike slip, and the total released seismic moment is 8.06 × 1018 Nm, equivalent to an earthquake of Mw 6.57. We calculated static stress changes along strike and dip direction, and the static stress analysis show that the average stress drop are at low level, which may be responsible for the low level of ground motion during Jiuzhaigou earthquake. The coseismic Coulomb stress changes are calculated base on the inverted slip model, which revealed that 82.59 % of aftershocks are located in the Coulomb stress increasing area, 78.42 % of total aftershocks may be triggered by the mainshock aftershock, indicating that the mainshock has a significant triggering effect on the subsequent aftershocks. Based on stochastic finite fault model, we simulated regional peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and the intensity, and results could capture basic features associated with the ground motion patterns. Moreover, the simulated results reflect the obvious rupture directivity effect.

Preliminary Results From the Chile-Illapel Aftershock Experiment (CHILLAX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roecker, S. W.; Russo, R. M.; Comte, D.; Carrizo, D.; Peyrat, S.; Opazo, T.; Peña, G.; Farrell, M. E.; Moore, J.; Glick, R.; Rodriguez, E. E.

2016-12-01

On September 16, 2015, the Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake ruptured a segment of the Nazca-South America subduction zone directly to the north of the 2010 Maule Mw 8.8 earthquake. Soon afterwards, a team from the Departamento de Geofisica, University of Chile, installed 18 short period sensors on land above the rupture to record aftershocks. A month later, the network was upgraded and expanded with funding from NSF RAPID to 20 broad band stations, loaned by IRIS PASSCAL. The installation of the Chile-Illapel Aftershock Experiment (CHILLAX) was completed in mid-November, 2015, and will operate until November, 2016. Preliminary analysis of data collected to date indicates an average detection rate of about 1000 locatable aftershocks per month. The combined CHILLAX and Maule aftershock deployments will yield the first modern-instrumentation observations of the zone of along-strike rupture termination that separates these temporally related and spatially adjacent megathrust rupture zones. Additionally, seismic observations of this part of the Nazca subduction zone are relatively sparse, and an aftershock sequence provides an opportunity to fill this gap efficiently. Preliminary analysis of CHILLAX network data revealed unexpected patterns in seismicity down dip from the rupture zone, in the unusual "flat slab" region to the east. Compared to the Maule event, the Illapel rupture apparently generated a more significant increase in seismicity in the 60-200 km depth range, suggesting that it "lit up" the subducted Nazca plate. Although high strain rates due to rupture might extend brittle failure into normally ductile regions, such an effect at these depths by the relatively low magnitude Illapel event is unusual. A perhaps more intriguing result is the frequent occurrence of events at depths significantly below that of the "flat slab". Attribution of this apparent second, deeper slab segment to event mislocations would require unrealistic seismic heterogeneity, We hypothesize that either the subduction of thick, buoyant crust of the Juan Fernandez Ridge has resulted in a slab tear, or that the "flat" seismicity is not occuring within the Nazca slab, but instead within the overriding South American lithosphere. In the latter case, the shallower flat slab earthquakes may represent a nascent delamination event.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

PubMed Central

Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

1996-01-01

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks. Images Fig. 3 PMID:11607666

Near-field investigations of the Landers earthquake sequence, April to July 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sieh, K.; Jones, L.; Hauksson, E.; Hudnut, K.; Eberhart-Phillips, D.; Heaton, T.; Hough, S.; Hutton, K.; Kanamori, H.; Lilje, A.; Lindvall, Scott; McGill, S.F.; Mori, J.; Rubin, C.; Spotila, J.A.; Stock, J.; Thio, H.K.; Treiman, J.; Wernicke, B.; Zachariasen, J.

1993-01-01

The Landers earthquake, which had a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.3, was the largest earthquake to strike the contiguous United States in 40 years. This earthquake resulted from the rupture of five major and many minor right-lateral faults near the southern end of the eastern California shear zone, just north of the San Andreas fault. Its Mw 6.1 preshock and Mw 6.2 aftershock had their own aftershocks and foreshocks. Surficial geological observations are consistent with local and far-field seismologic observations of the earthquake. Large surficial offsets (as great as 6 meters) and a relatively short rupture length (85 kilometers) are consistent with seismological calculations of a high stress drop (200 bars), which is in turn consistent with an apparently long recurrence interval for these faults.

Modeling of high‐frequency seismic‐wave scattering and propagation using radiative transfer theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeng, Yuehua

2017-01-01

This is a study of the nonisotropic scattering process based on radiative transfer theory and its application to the observation of the M 4.3 aftershock recording of the 2008 Wells earthquake sequence in Nevada. Given a wide range of recording distances from 29 to 320 km, the data provide a unique opportunity to discriminate scattering models based on their distance‐dependent behaviors. First, we develop a stable numerical procedure to simulate nonisotropic scattering waves based on the 3D nonisotropic scattering theory proposed by Sato (1995). By applying the simulation method to the inversion of M 4.3 Wells aftershock recordings, we find that a nonisotropic scattering model, dominated by forward scattering, provides the best fit to the observed high‐frequency direct S waves and S‐wave coda velocity envelopes. The scattering process is governed by a Gaussian autocorrelation function, suggesting a Gaussian random heterogeneous structure for the Nevada crust. The model successfully explains the common decay of seismic coda independent of source–station locations as a result of energy leaking from multiple strong forward scattering, instead of backscattering governed by the diffusion solution at large lapse times. The model also explains the pulse‐broadening effect in the high‐frequency direct and early arriving S waves, as other studies have found, and could be very important to applications of high‐frequency wave simulation in which scattering has a strong effect. We also find that regardless of its physical implications, the isotropic scattering model provides the same effective scattering coefficient and intrinsic attenuation estimates as the forward scattering model, suggesting that the isotropic scattering model is still a viable tool for the study of seismic scattering and intrinsic attenuation coefficients in the Earth.

2014 Mainshock-Aftershock Activity Versus Earthquake Swarms in West Bohemia, Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakoubková, Hana; Horálek, Josef; Fischer, Tomáš

2018-01-01

A singular sequence of three episodes of ML3.5, 4.4 and 3.6 mainshock-aftershock occurred in the West Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake-swarm region during 2014. We analysed this activity using the WEBNET data and compared it with the swarms of 1997, 2000, 2008 and 2011 from the perspective of cumulative seismic moment, statistical characteristics, space-time distribution of events, and prevailing focal mechanisms. For this purpose, we improved the scaling relation between seismic moment M0 and local magnitude ML by WEBNET. The total seismic moment released during 2014 episodes (M_{0tot}≈ 1.58× 10^{15} Nm) corresponded to a single ML4.6+ event and was comparable to M_{0tot} of the swarms of 2000, 2008 and 2011. We inferred that the ML4.8 earthquake is the maximum expected event in Nový Kostel (NK), the main focal zone. Despite the different character of the 2014 sequence and the earthquake swarms, the magnitude-frequency distributions (MFDs) show the b-values ≈ 1 and probability density functions (PDFs) of the interevent times indicate the similar event rate of the individual swarms and 2014 activity. Only the a-value (event-productivity) in the MFD of the 2014 sequence is significantly lower than those of the swarms. A notable finding is a significant acceleration of the seismic moment release in each subsequent activity starting from the 2000 swarm to the 2014 sequence, which may indicate an alteration from the swarm-like to the mainshocks-aftershock character of the seismicity. The three mainshocks are located on a newly activated fault segment/asperity (D in out notation) of the NK zone situated in the transition area among fault segments A, B, C, which hosted the 2000, 2008 and 2011 swarms. The segment D appears to be predisposed to an oblique-thrust faulting while strike-slip faulting is typical of segments A, B and C. In conclusion, we propose a basic segment scheme of the NK zone which should be improved gradually.

Rupture Processes of the Mw8.3 Sea of Okhotsk Earthquake and Aftershock Sequences from 3-D Back Projection Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, P. R.; Hung, S. H.; Meng, L.

2014-12-01

On May 24, 2013, the largest deep earthquake ever recorded in history occurred on the southern tip of the Kamchatka Island, where the Pacific Plate subducts underneath the Okhotsk Plate. Previous 2D beamforming back projection (BP) of P- coda waves suggests the mainshock ruptured bilaterally along a horizontal fault plane determined by the global centroid moment tensor solution. On the other hand, the multiple point source inversion of P and SH waveforms argued that the earthquake comprises a sequence of 6 subevents not located on a single plane but actually distributed in a zone that extends 64 km horizontally and 35 km in depth. We then apply a three-dimensional MUSIC BP approach to resolve the rupture processes of the manishock and two large aftershocks (M6.7) with no a priori setup of preferential orientations of the planar rupture. The maximum pseudo-spectrum of high-frequency P wave in a sequence of time windows recorded by the densely-distributed stations from US and EU Array are used to image 3-D temporal and spatial rupture distribution. The resulting image confirms that the nearly N-S striking but two antiparallel rupture stages. The first subhorizontal rupture initially propagates toward the NNE direction, while at 18 s later it directs reversely to the SSW and concurrently shifts downward to 35 km deeper lasting for about 20 s. The rupture lengths in the first NNE-ward and second SSW-ward stage are about 30 km and 85 km; the estimated rupture velocities are 3 km/s and 4.25 km/s, respectively. Synthetic experiments are undertaken to assess the capability of the 3D MUSIC BP for the recovery of spatio-temporal rupture processes. Besides, high frequency BP images based on the EU-Array data show two M6.7 aftershocks are more likely to rupture on the vertical fault planes.

Focal Depth of the WenChuan Earthquake Aftershocks from modeling of Seismic Depth Phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.; Zeng, X.; Chong, J.; Ni, S.; Chen, Y.

2008-12-01

After the 05/12/2008 great WenChuan earthquake in Sichuan Province of China, tens of thousands earthquakes occurred with hundreds of them stronger than M4. Those aftershocks provide valuable information about seismotectonics and rupture processes for the mainshock, particularly accurate spatial distribution of aftershocks is very informational for determining rupture fault planes. However focal depth can not be well resolved just with first arrivals recorded by relatively sparse network in Sichuan Province, therefore 3D seismicity distribution is difficult to obtain though horizontal location can be located with accuracy of 5km. Instead local/regional depth phases such as sPmP, sPn, sPL and teleseismic pP,sP are very sensitive to depth, and be readily modeled to determine depth with accuracy of 2km. With reference 1D velocity structure resolved from receiver functions and seismic refraction studies, local/regional depth phases such as sPmP, sPn and sPL are identified by comparing observed waveform with synthetic seismograms by generalized ray theory and reflectivity methods. For teleseismic depth phases well observed for M5.5 and stronger events, we developed an algorithm in inverting both depth and focal mechanism from P and SH waveforms. Also we employed the Cut and Paste (CAP) method developed by Zhao and Helmberger in modeling mechanism and depth with local waveforms, which constrains depth by fitting Pnl waveforms and the relative weight between surface wave and Pnl. After modeling all the depth phases for hundreds of events , we find that most of the M4 earthquakes occur between 2-18km depth, with aftershocks depth ranging 4-12km in the southern half of Longmenshan fault while aftershocks in the northern half featuring large depth range up to 18km. Therefore seismogenic zone in the northern segment is deeper as compared to the southern segment. All the aftershocks occur in upper crust, given that the Moho is deeper than 40km, or even 60km west of the Longmenshan fault. Absence of mid-lower crustal shocks supports the model of lower crustal flow beneath eastern Tibetan plateau, which is probably responsible for Longmenshan uplifting and hence the Wenchuan earthquake.

Imaging the source region of the 2003 San Simeon earthquake within the weak Franciscan subduction complex, central California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauksson, E.; Oppenheimer, D.; Brocher, T.M.

2004-01-01

Data collected from the 2003 Mw6.5 San Simeon earthquake sequence in central California and a 1986 seismic refraction experiment demonstrate that the weak Franciscan subduction complex suffered brittle failure in a region without significant velocity contrast across a slip plane. Relocated hypocenters suggest a spatial relationship between the seismicity and the Oceanic fault, although blind faulting on a nearby, unknown fault is an equally plausible alternative. The aftershock volume is sandwiched between the Nacimiento and Oceanic faults and is characterized by rocks of low compressional velocity (Vp) abutted to the east and west by rocks of higher Vp. This volume of inferred Franciscan rocks is embedded within the larger Santa Lucia anticline. Pore fluids, whose presence is implied by elevated Vp/Vs values, may locally decrease normal stress and limit the aftershock depth distribution between 3 to 10 km within the hanging wall. The paucity of aftershocks along the mainshock rupture surface may reflect either the absence of a damage zone or an almost complete stress drop within the low Vp or weak rock matrix surrounding the mainshock rupture. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Joint inversion of teleseismic body-waves and geodetic data for the Mw6.8 aftershock of the Balochistan earthquake with refined epicenter location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, S.; Wang, T.; Jonsson, S.; Avouac, J. P.; Helmberger, D. V.

2014-12-01

Aftershocks of the 2013 Balochistan earthquake are mainly concentrated along the northeastern end of the mainshock rupture despite of much larger coseismic slip to the southwest. The largest event among them is an Mw6.8 earthquake which occurred three days after the mainshock. A kinematic slip model of the mainshock was obtained by joint inversion of the teleseismic body-waves and horizontal static deformation field derived from remote sensing optical and SAR data, which is composed of seven fault segments with gradually changing strikes and dips [Avouac et al., 2014]. The remote sensing data provide well constraints on the fault geometry and spatial distribution of slip but no timing information. Meanwhile, the initiation of the teleseismic waveform is very sensitive to fault geometry of the epicenter segment (strike and dip) and spatial slip distribution but much less sensitive to the absolute location of the epicenter. The combination of the two data sets allows a much better determination of the absolute epicenter location, which is about 25km to the southwest of the NEIC epicenter location. The well located mainshock epicenter is used to establish path calibrations for teleseismic P-waves, which are essential for relocating the Mw6.8 aftershock. Our grid search shows that the refined epicenter is located right at the northeastern end of the mainshock rupture. This is confirmed by the SAR offsets calculated from images acquired after the mainshock. The azimuth and range offsets display a discontinuity across the rupture trace of the mainshock. Teleseismic only and static only, as well as joint inversions all indicate that the aftershock ruptured an asperity with 25km along strike and range from 8km to 20km in depth. The earthquake was originated in a positive Coulomb stress change regime due to the mainshock and has complementary slip distribution to the mainshock rupture at the northeastern end, suggesting that the entire seismic generic zone in the crust was ruptured during the earthquake sequence.

Earthquake Predictability: Results From Aggregating Seismicity Data And Assessment Of Theoretical Individual Cases Via Synthetic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adamaki, A.; Roberts, R.

2016-12-01

For many years an important aim in seismological studies has been forecasting the occurrence of large earthquakes. Despite some well-established statistical behavior of earthquake sequences, expressed by e.g. the Omori law for aftershock sequences and the Gutenburg-Richter distribution of event magnitudes, purely statistical approaches to short-term earthquake prediction have in general not been successful. It seems that better understanding of the processes leading to critical stress build-up prior to larger events is necessary to identify useful precursory activity, if this exists, and statistical analyses are an important tool in this context. There has been considerable debate on the usefulness or otherwise of foreshock studies for short-term earthquake prediction. We investigate generic patterns of foreshock activity using aggregated data and by studying not only strong but also moderate magnitude events. Aggregating empirical local seismicity time series prior to larger events observed in and around Greece reveals a statistically significant increasing rate of seismicity over 20 days prior to M>3.5 earthquakes. This increase cannot be explained by tempo-spatial clustering models such as ETAS, implying genuine changes in the mechanical situation just prior to larger events and thus the possible existence of useful precursory information. Because of tempo-spatial clustering, including aftershocks to foreshocks, even if such generic behavior exists it does not necessarily follow that foreshocks have the potential to provide useful precursory information for individual larger events. Using synthetic catalogs produced based on different clustering models and different presumed system sensitivities we are now investigating to what extent the apparently established generic foreshock rate acceleration may or may not imply that the foreshocks have potential in the context of routine forecasting of larger events. Preliminary results suggest that this is the case, but that it is likely that physically-based models of foreshock clustering will be a necessary, but not necessarily sufficient, basis for successful forecasting.

A scale-invariant cellular-automata model for distributed seismicity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barriere, Benoit; Turcotte, Donald L.

1991-01-01

In the standard cellular-automata model for a fault an element of stress is randomly added to a grid of boxes until a box has four elements, these are then redistributed to the adjacent boxes on the grid. The redistribution can result in one or more of these boxes having four or more elements in which case further redistributions are required. On the average added elements are lost from the edges of the grid. The model is modified so that the boxes have a scale-invariant distribution of sizes. The objective is to model a scale-invariant distribution of fault sizes. When a redistribution from a box occurs it is equivalent to a characteristic earthquake on the fault. A redistribution from a small box (a foreshock) can trigger an instability in a large box (the main shock). A redistribution from a large box always triggers many instabilities in the smaller boxes (aftershocks). The frequency-size statistics for both main shocks and aftershocks satisfy the Gutenberg-Richter relation with b = 0.835 for main shocks and b = 0.635 for aftershocks. Model foreshocks occur 28 percent of the time.

High Frequency Recordings of the Parkfield M=6 and its Aftershocks in the 1.1 km Deep SAFOD Pilot Hole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malin, P.; Shalev, E.; Chavarria, A.

2004-12-01

Seismic waves from the September 28th Parkfield event and its aftershocks were recorded by the SAFOD Pilot Hole seismic array. This array currently consists of seven levels of 3-component 15 Hz seismometers within the Salinian granite. Its sensors are spaced at 40 m intervals between depths of 856 to 1156 meters below ground. Our deep borehole recordings with high signal-to-noise ratios has allowed us to explore the high frequency content and distribution of both the main event and a large number of aftershocks not detected by the local surface network. We have determined the spectral characteristics for events of different sizes and have related them to their source characteristics. Events close to the PH array contain surprisingly similar distributions of high frequency energy irrespective of their seismic moment. For example, the seismic waves of nearly co-located M~2 and M~5 aftershocks have instrument-corrected corner frequencies that are different by only a few Hz: ~58 Hz versus ~50 Hz. The M~5 can thus be thought of as having broken numerous small but strong fault patches - a model previously suggested by others based on both theoretical and observational grounds. The M~6, which was much further away than these aftershocks, also contains high frequency signals, not quite, but almost, to the same degree. Our results suggest that strong attenuation of high frequency waves in the fault zone area, as well as in shallow weathering layers, prevents more distantly located instruments from recording a complete picture of the actual radiation. Further, in keeping with this suggestion, we have found that, at least for the first nine minutes after the main event, the number of aftershocks observed at the PH is almost ten times higher than that reported in the NCEDC catalog. The rate and size of these events does not fit previous notions of aftershock activity, but may fit with our suggested heterogeneous fault patch and near-source attenuation models.

Stress Interactions Between the 1976 Magnitude 7.8 Tangshan Earthquake and Adjacent Fault Systems in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Lin, J.; Chen, Y. J.

2004-12-01

The 28 July 1976 ML = 7.8 Tangshan earthquake struck a highly populated metropolitan center in northern China and was one of the most devastating earthquakes in modern history. Its occurrence has significantly changed the Coulomb stresses on a complex network of strike-slip, normal, and thrust faults in the region, potentially heightened the odds of future earthquakes on some of these fault segments. We have conducted a detailed analysis of the 3D stress effects of the Tangshan earthquake on its neighboring faults, the relationship between stress transfer and aftershock locations, and the implications for future seismic hazard in the region. Available seismic and geodetic data, although limited, indicate that the Tangshan main shock sequence is composed of complex rupture on 2-3 fault segments. The dominant rupture mode is right-lateral strike-slip on two adjoining sub-segments that strike N5¡aE and N35¡aE, respectively. We calculated that the Tangshan main shock sequence has increased the Coulomb failure stress by more than 1 bar in the vicinity of the Lunanxian district to the east, where the largest aftershock (ML = 7.1) occurred 15 hours after the Tangshan main event. The second largest aftershock (ML = 6.8) occurred on the Ninghe fault to the southwest of the main rupture, in a transitional region between the calculated Coulomb stress increase and decrease. The majority of the ML > 5.0 aftershocks also occurred in areas of calculated Coulomb stress increase. Our analyses further indicate that the Coulomb stress on portions of other fault segments, including the Leting and Lulong fault to the east and Yejito fault to the north, may also have been increased. Thus it is critical to obtain estimates of earthquake repeat times on these and other tectonic faults and to acquire continuous GPS and space geodetic measurements. Investigation of stress interaction and earthquake triggering in northern China is not only highly societal relevant but also important for advancing our understanding of the fundamental characteristics of earthquakes in regions of diffuse continental deformation.

20 cool facts about the New Madrid Seismic Zone-Commemorating the bicentennial of the New Madrid earthquake sequence, December 1811-February 1812 [poster

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, R.A.; McCallister, N.S.; Dart, R.L.

2011-01-01

This poster summarizes a few of the more significant facts about the series of large earthquakes that struck the New Madrid seismic zone of southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and adjacent parts of Tennessee and Kentucky from December 1811 to February 1812. Three earthquakes in this sequence had a magnitude (M) of 7.0 or greater. The first earthquake occurred on December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m.; the second on January 23, 1812, at 9 a.m.; and the third on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These three earthquakes were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. The mainshocks were followed by many hundreds of aftershocks that occurred over the next decade. Many of the aftershocks were major earthquakes themselves. The area that was strongly shaken by the three main shocks was 2-3 times as large as the strongly shaken area of the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan earthquake and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake. Geologic studies show that the 1811-1812 sequence was not an isolated event in the New Madrid region. The 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence was preceded by at least two other similar sequences in about A.D. 1450 and A.D. 900. Research also indicates that other large earthquakes have occurred in the region surrounding the main New Madrid seismicity trends in the past 5,000 years or so.

Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, Geoffrey C.P.; Stein, Ross S.; Lin, Jian

1994-01-01

To understand whether the 1992 M = 7.4 Landers earthquake changed the proximity to failure on the San Andreas fault system, we examine the general problem of how one earthquake might trigger another. The tendency of rocks to fail in a brittle manner is thought to be a function of both shear and confining stresses, commonly formulated as the Coulomb failure criterion. Here we explore how changes in Coulomb conditions associated with one or more earthquakes may trigger subsequent events. We first consider a Coulomb criterion appropriate for the production of aftershocks, where faults most likely to slip are those optimally orientated for failure as a result of the prevailing regional stress field and the stress change caused by the mainshock. We find that the distribution of aftershocks for the Landers earthquake, as well as for several other moderate events in its vicinity, can be explained by the Coulomb criterion as follows: aftershocks are abundant where the Coulomb stress on optimally orientated faults rose by more than one-half bar, and aftershocks are sparse where the Coulomb stress dropped by a similar amount. Further, we find that several moderate shocks raised the stress at the future Landers epicenter and along much of the Landers rupture zone by about a bar, advancing the Landers shock by 1 to 3 centuries. The Landers rupture, in turn, raised the stress at site of the future M = 6.5 Big Bear aftershock site by 3 bars. The Coulomb stress change on a specified fault is independent of regional stress but depends on the fault geometry, sense of slip, and the coefficient of friction. We use this method to resolve stress changes on the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults imposed by the Landers sequence. Together the Landers and Big Bear earthquakes raised the stress along the San Bernardino segment of the southern San Andreas fault by 2 to 6 bars, hastening the next great earthquake there by about a decade.

Aftershock Analysis of the 2016 Mw7.8 Pedernales (Ecuador) Earthquake: Seismotectonics, Seismicity Distribution and Relationship with Coseismic Slip Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agurto-Detzel, H.; Font, Y.; Charvis, P.; Ambrois, D.; Cheze, J.; Courboulex, F.; De Barros, L.; Deschamps, A.; Galve, A.; Godano, M.; Laigle, M.; Maron, C.; Martin, X.; Monfret, T.; Oregioni, D.; Peix, F., Sr.; Regnier, M. M.; Yates, B.; Mercerat, D.; Leon Rios, S.; Rietbrock, A.; Acero, W.; Alvarado, A. P.; Gabriela, P.; Ramos, C.; Ruiz, M. C.; Singaucho, J. C.; Vasconez, F.; Viracucha, C.; Beck, S. L.; Lynner, C.; Hoskins, M.; Meltzer, A.; Soto-Cordero, L.; Stachnik, J.

2017-12-01

0n April 2016, a Mw 7.8 megathrust earthquake struck the coast of Ecuador causing vast human and material losses. The earthquake ruptured a 100 km-long segment of the subduction interface between Nazca and South America, spatially coinciding with the 1942 M 7.8 earthquake rupture area. Shortly after the mainshock, an international effort made by institutions from Ecuador, France, UK and USA, deployed a temporary network of +60 land and ocean-bottom seismometers to capture the aftershock sequence for the subsequent year. These stations came to join the local Ecuadorian national network already monitoring in place. Here we benefit from this dataset to produce a suite of automatic locations and a subset of regional moment tensors for high quality events. Over 2900 events were detected for the first month of postseismic activity alone, and a subset of 600 events were manually re-picked and located. Similarly, thousands of aftershocks were detected using the temporary deployment over the following months, with magnitudes ranging between 1 to 7. As expected, moment tensors show mostly thrust faulting at the interface, but we also observe sparse normal and strike-slip faulting at shallow depths in the forearc. The spatial distribution of seismicity delineates the coseismic rupture area, but extends well beyond it over a 300 km long segment. Main features include three seismicity alignments perpendicular to the trench, at the north, center and south of the mainshock rupture. Preliminary results comparing quantitatively the distribution of aftershocks to the distribution of the coseismic rupture show that the bulk of the aftershock seismicity occurs at intermediate levels of coseismic slip, while areas of maximum coseismic slip are mostly devoid of events M>3. Our results shed light on the interface processes occurring mainly during the early post-seismic period of large megathrust earthquakes, and implications on the earthquake cycle.

Aftershocks of the western Argentina (Caucete) earthquake of 23 November 1977: some tectonic implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langer, C.J.; Bollinger, G.A.

1988-01-01

An aftershock survey, using a network of eight portable and two permanent seismographs, was conducted for the western Argentina (Caucete) earthquake (MS 7.3) of November 23, 1977. Monitoring began December 6, almost 2 weeks after the main shock and continued for 11 days. The data set includes 185 aftershock hypocenters that range in the depth from near surface to more than 30 km. The spatial distribution of those events occupied a volume of about 100 km long ??50 km wide ??30 km thick. The volumnar nature of the aftershock distribution is interpreted to be a result of a bimodal distribution of foci that define east- and west-dipping planar zones. Efforts to select which of those zones was associated with the causal faulting include special attention to the determination of the mainshock focal depth and dislocation theory modeling of the coseismic surface deformation in the epicentral region. Our focal depth (25-35 km) and modeling studies lead us to prefer an east-dipping plane as causal. A previous interpretation by other investigators used a shallower focal depth (17 km) and similar modeling calculations in choosing a west-dipping plane. Our selection of the east-dipping plane is physically more appealing because it places fault initiation at the base of the crustal seismogenic layer (rather than in the middle of that layer) which requires fault propagation to be updip (rather than downdip). ?? 1988.

Hear it, See it, Explore it: Visualizations and Sonifications of Seismic Signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, M.; Peng, Z.; Simpson, D. W.; Kilb, D. L.

2010-12-01

Sonification of seismic data is an innovative way to represent seismic data in the audible range (Simpson, 2005). Seismic waves with different frequency and temporal characteristics, such as those from teleseismic earthquakes, deep “non-volcanic” tremor and local earthquakes, can be easily discriminated when time-compressed to the audio range. Hence, sonification is particularly useful for presenting complicated seismic signals with multiple sources, such as aftershocks within the coda of large earthquakes, and remote triggering of earthquakes and tremor by large teleseismic earthquakes. Previous studies mostly focused on converting the seismic data into audible files by simple time compression or frequency modulation (Simpson et al., 2009). Here we generate animations of the seismic data together with the sounds. We first read seismic data in the SAC format into Matlab, and generate a sequence of image files and an associated WAV sound file. Next, we use a third party video editor, such as the QuickTime Pro, to combine the image sequences and the sound file into an animation. We have applied this simple procedure to generate animations of remotely triggered earthquakes, tremor and low-frequency earthquakes in California, and mainshock-aftershock sequences in Japan and California. These animations clearly demonstrate the interactions of earthquake sequences and the richness of the seismic data. The tool developed in this study can be easily adapted for use in other research applications and to create sonification/animation of seismic data for education and outreach purpose.

Comparison of Observed Spatio-temporal Aftershock Patterns with Earthquake Simulator Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroll, K.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Dieterich, J. H.

2013-12-01

Due to the complex nature of faulting in southern California, knowledge of rupture behavior near fault step-overs is of critical importance to properly quantify and mitigate seismic hazards. Estimates of earthquake probability are complicated by the uncertainty that a rupture will stop at or jump a fault step-over, which affects both the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of earthquakes. In recent years, earthquake simulators and dynamic rupture models have begun to address the effects of complex fault geometries on earthquake ground motions and rupture propagation. Early models incorporated vertical faults with highly simplified geometries. Many current studies examine the effects of varied fault geometry, fault step-overs, and fault bends on rupture patterns; however, these works are limited by the small numbers of integrated fault segments and simplified orientations. The previous work of Kroll et al., 2013 on the northern extent of the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah rupture in the Yuha Desert region uses precise aftershock relocations to show an area of complex conjugate faulting within the step-over region between the Elsinore and Laguna Salada faults. Here, we employ an innovative approach of incorporating this fine-scale fault structure defined through seismological, geologic and geodetic means in the physics-based earthquake simulator, RSQSim, to explore the effects of fine-scale structures on stress transfer and rupture propagation and examine the mechanisms that control aftershock activity and local triggering of other large events. We run simulations with primary fault structures in state of California and northern Baja California and incorporate complex secondary faults in the Yuha Desert region. These models produce aftershock activity that enables comparison between the observed and predicted distribution and allow for examination of the mechanisms that control them. We investigate how the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks are affected by changes to model parameters such as shear and normal stress, rate-and-state frictional properties, fault geometry, and slip rate.

Nanoseismicity and picoseismicity rate changes from static stress triggering caused by a Mw 2.2 earthquake in Mponeng gold mine, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozłowska, Maria; Orlecka-Sikora, Beata; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Boettcher, Margaret S.; Dresen, Georg

2015-01-01

Static stress changes following large earthquakes are known to affect the rate and distribution of aftershocks, yet this process has not been thoroughly investigated for nanoseismicity and picoseismicity at centimeter length scales. Here we utilize a unique data set of M ≥ -3.4 earthquakes following a Mw 2.2 earthquake in Mponeng gold mine, South Africa, that was recorded during a quiet interval in the mine to investigate if rate- and state-based modeling is valid for shallow, mining-induced seismicity. We use Dieterich's (1994) rate- and state-dependent formulation for earthquake productivity, which requires estimation of four parameters: (1) Coulomb stress changes due to the main shock, (2) the reference seismicity rate, (3) frictional resistance parameter, and (4) the duration of aftershock relaxation time. Comparisons of the modeled spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity based on two different source models with the observed distribution show that while the spatial patterns match well, the rate of modeled aftershocks is lower than the observed rate. To test our model, we used three metrics of the goodness-of-fit evaluation. The null hypothesis, of no significant difference between modeled and observed seismicity rates, was only rejected in the depth interval containing the main shock. Results show that mining-induced earthquakes may be followed by a stress relaxation expressed through aftershocks located on the rupture plane and in regions of positive Coulomb stress change. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the main features of the temporal and spatial distributions of very small, mining-induced earthquakes can be successfully determined using rate- and state-based stress modeling.

Seismicity associated with the Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake of 26 December 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dewey, J.W.; Choy, G.; Presgrave, B.; Sipkin, S.; Tarr, A.C.; Benz, H.; Earle, P.; Wald, D.

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey/National Earthquake Information Center (USGS/ NEIC) had computed origins for 5000 earthquakes in the Sumatra-Andaman Islands region in the first 36 weeks after the Sumatra-Andaman Islands mainshock of 26 December 2004. The cataloging of earthquakes of mb (USGS) 5.1 and larger is essentially complete for the time period except for the first half-day following the 26 December mainshock, a period of about two hours following the Nias earthquake of 28 March 2005, and occasionally during the Andaman Sea swarm of 26-30 January 2005. Moderate and larger (mb ???5.5) aftershocks are absent from most of the deep interplate thrust faults of the segments of the Sumatra-Andaman Islands subduction zone on which the 26 December mainshock occurred, which probably reflects nearly complete release of elastic strain on the seismogenic interplate-thrust during the mainshock. An exceptional thrust-fault source offshore of Banda Aceh may represent a segment of the interplate thrust that was bypassed during the mainshock. The 26 December mainshock triggered a high level of aftershock activity near the axis of the Sunda trench and the leading edge of the overthrust Burma plate. Much near-trench activity is intraplate activity within the subducting plate, but some shallow-focus, near-trench, reverse-fault earthquakes may represent an unusual seismogenic release of interplate compressional stress near the tip of the overriding plate. The interplate-thrust Nias earthquake of 28 March 2005, in contrast to the 26 December aftershock sequence, was followed by many interplate-thrust aftershocks along the length of its inferred rupture zone.

Analysis of strong ground motions and site effects at Kantipath, Kathmandu, from 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake and its aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, Yadab P.; Kubo, Hisahiko; Suzuki, Wataru; Kunugi, Takashi; Aoi, Shin; Fujiwara, Hiroyuki

2016-04-01

Strong ground motions from the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake and its eight aftershocks recorded by a strong-motion seismograph at Kantipath (KATNP), Kathmandu, were analyzed to assess the ground-motion characteristics and site effects at this location. Remarkably large elastic pseudo-velocity responses exceeding 300 cm/s at 5 % critical damping were calculated for the horizontal components of the mainshock recordings at peak periods of 4-5 s. Conversely, the short-period ground motions of the mainshock were relatively weak despite the proximity of the site to the source fault. The horizontal components of all large-magnitude (Mw ≥ 6.3) aftershock recordings showed peak pseudo-velocity responses at periods of 3-4 s. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) describing the Nepal Himalaya region have not yet been developed. A comparison of the observational data with GMPEs for Japan showed that with the exception of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the mainshock, the observed PGAs and peak ground velocities at the KATNP site are generally well described by the GMPEs for crustal and plate interface events. A comparison of the horizontal-to-vertical ( H/ V) spectral ratios for the S-waves of the mainshock and aftershock recordings suggested that the KATNP site experienced a considerable nonlinear site response, which resulted in the reduced amplitudes of short-period ground motions. The GMPEs were found to underestimate the response values at the peak periods (approximately 4-5 s) of the large-magnitude events. The deep subsurface velocity model of the Kathmandu basin has not been well investigated. Therefore, a one-dimensional velocity model was constructed for the deep sediments beneath the recording station based on an analysis of the H/ V spectral ratios for S-wave coda from aftershock recordings, and it was revealed that the basin sediments strongly amplified the long-period components of the ground motions of the mainshock and large-magnitude aftershocks.

Seismicity rate changes along the central California coast due to stress changes from the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon and 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aron, A.; Hardebeck, J.L.

2009-01-01

We investigated the relationship between seismicity rate changes and modeled Coulomb static stress changes from the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon and the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquakes in central California. Coulomb stress modeling indicates that the San Simeon mainshock loaded parts of the Rinconada, Hosgri, and San Andreas strike-slip faults, along with the reverse faults of the southern Los Osos domain. All of these loaded faults, except for the San Andreas, experienced a seismicity rate increase at the time of the San Simeon mainshock. The Parkfield earthquake occurred 9 months later on the loaded portion of the San Andreas fault. The Parkfield earthquake unloaded the Hosgri fault and the reverse faults of the southern Los Osos domain, which both experienced seismicity rate decreases at the time of the Parkfield event, although the decreases may be related to the decay of San Simeon-triggered seismicity. Coulomb stress unloading from the Parkfield earthquake appears to have altered the aftershock decay rate of the southern cluster of San Simeon after-shocks, which is deficient compared to the expected number of aftershocks from the Omori decay parameters based on the pre-Parkfield aftershocks. Dynamic stress changes cannot explain the deficiency of aftershocks, providing evidence that static stress changes affect earthquake occurrence. However, a burst of seismicity following the Parkfield earthquake at Ragged Point, where the static stress was decreased, provides evidence for dynamic stress triggering. It therefore appears that both Coulomb static stress changes and dynamic stress changes affect the seismicity rate.

Focal mechanisms and moment magnitudes of micro-earthquakes in central Brazil by waveform inversion with quality assessment and inference of the local stress field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, Juraci; Barros, Lucas Vieira; Zahradník, Jiří

2016-11-01

This paper documents an investigation on the use of full waveform inversion to retrieve focal mechanisms of 11 micro-earthquakes (Mw 0.8 to 1.4). The events represent aftershocks of a 5.0 mb earthquake that occurred on October 8, 2010 close to the city of Mara Rosa in the state of Goiás, Brazil. The main contribution of the work lies in demonstrating the feasibility of waveform inversion of such weak events. The inversion was made possible thanks to recordings available at 8 temporary seismic stations in epicentral distances of less than 8 km, at which waveforms can be successfully modeled at relatively high frequencies (1.5-2.0 Hz). On average, the fault-plane solutions obtained are in agreement with a composite focal mechanism previously calculated from first-motion polarities. They also agree with the fault geometry inferred from precise relocation of the Mara Rosa aftershock sequence. The focal mechanisms provide an estimate of the local stress field. This paper serves as a pilot study for similar investigations in intraplate regions where the stress-field investigations are difficult due to rare earthquake occurrences, and where weak events must be studied with a detailed quality assessment.

The Iquique 2014 sequence: understanding its nucleation and propagation from the seismicity evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuenzalida, A.; Rietbrock, A.; Woollam, J.; Tavera, H.; Ruiz, S.

2017-12-01

The Northern Chile and Southern Peru region is well known for its high seismic hazard due to the lack of recent major ruptures along long segments of the subduction interface. For this reason the 2014 Iquique Mw 8.1 earthquake that occurred in the Northern Chile seismic gap was expected and high quality seismic and geodetic networks were operating at the time of the event recording the precursory phase of a mega-thrust event with unprecedented detail. In this study we used seismic data collected during the 2014 Iquique sequence to generate a detailed earthquake catalogue. This catalogue consists of more than 15,000 events identified in Northern Chile during the period between 1/3/14 and 31/5/14 and provides full coverage of the immediate foreshock sequence, the main-shock and early after-shock series. The initial catalogue was obtained by automatic data processing and only selecting events with at least two associate S phases to improve the reliability of initial locations. Subsequently, this subset of events was automatically processed again using an optimized STA/LTA triggering algorithm for both P and S-waves and constraining the detection times by estimated arrival times at each station calculated for the preliminary locations. Finally, all events were relocated using a recently developed 1D velocity model and associated station corrections. For events Mw 4 or larger that occurred between the 15/3/14 and 10/04/14, we estimated it regional moment tensor by full-waveform inversion. Our results confirm the seismic activation of the upper plate during the foreshock sequence, as well highlight a crustal activity on the fore-arc during the aftershock series. The seismicity distribution was compared to the previous inter-seismic coupling studies obtained in the region, in which we observe interplay between high and low coupling areas, which are correlated to the seismicity rate. The spatial distribution of the seismicity and the complexities on the mechanisms observed during the sequence can be associated to the observed seamounts belonging to the Iquique ridge by previous marine experiment. To conclude our study, we perform a space and time analysis of the seismicity and we propose several scenarios to explain the nucleation of the earthquake and the way on which the seismicity behave during the sequence.

3D P-wave velocity structure of the crust and relocation of earthquakes in the Lushan, China, source area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xiangwei; Wang, Xiaona; Zhang, Wenbo

2016-04-01

Many researchers have investigated the Lushan source area with geological and geophysical approaches since the 2013 Lushan, China, earthquake happened. Compared with the previous tomographic studies, we have used a much large data set and an updated tomographic method to determine a small scale three-dimensional P wave velocity structure with spatial resolution less than 5km, which plays the important role for understanding the deep structure and the genetic mechanism beneath the Lushan area. The double difference seismic tomography method is applied to 50,711 absolute first arrival P wave arrival times and 7,294,691 high quality relative P arrival times of 5,285 events of Lushan seismic sequence to simultaneously determine the detailed crustal 3D P wave velocity structure and the hypocenter parameters in the Lushan seismic area. This method takes account of the path anomaly biases explicitly by making full use of valuable information of seismic wave propagation jointly with absolute and relative arrival time data. Our results show that the Lushan mainshock locates at 30.28N, 103.98E, with the depth of 16.38km. The front edge of aftershock in the northeast of mainshock present a spade with a steep dip angle, the aftershocks' extended length is about 12km. In the southwest of Lushan mainshock, the front edge of aftershock in low velocity zone slope gently, the aftershocks' extended length is about 23km. Our high-resolution tomographic model not only displays the general features contained in the previous models, but also reveals some new features. The Tianquan, Shuangshi and Daguan line lies in the transition zone between high velocity anomalies to the southeast and low velocity anomalies to the northwest at the ground surface. An obvious high-velocity anomaly is visible in Daxing area. With the depth increasing, Baoxing high velocity anomaly extends to Lingguan, while the southeast of the Tianquan, Shuangshi and Daguan line still shows low velocity. The high-velocity anomalies beneath Baoxing and Daxing connect each other in 10km depth, which makes the contrast between high and low velocity anomalies more sharp. Above 20km depth the velocity structure in southwest and northeast segment of mainshock shows a big difference: low-velocity anomalies are dominated the southwest segment, while high-velocity anomalies rule the northeast segment. Lushan aftershocks in southwest are distributed in low-velocity anomalies or the transition belt: the footwall represents low-velocity anomalies, while the hanging wall shows high-velocity anomalies. The northeastern aftershocks are distributed at the boundary between high-velocity anomalies in Baoxing and Daxing area. The P wave velocity structure of Lushan seismic area shows obviously lateral heterogeneity. The P wave velocity anomalies represent close relationship with topographic relief and geological structure. In Baoxingarea the complex rocks correspond obvious high-velocity anomalies extending down to 15km depth，while the Cenozoic rocks are correlated with low-velocity anomalies. Lushan mainshock locates at the leading edge of a low-velocity anomaly surrounded by the Baoxing and Daxing high-velocity anomalies. The main seismogenic layer dips to northwest. Meanwhile, a recoil seismic belt dips to southeast above the main seismogenic layer exists at the lower boundary of Baoxing high-velocity anomaly.

Foreshocks and Aftershocks Detected from Stick-slip Events on a 3 m Biaxial Apparatus and their Relationship to Quasistatic Nucleation and Wear Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, S.; Mclaskey, G.

2017-12-01

We investigate foreshocks and aftershocks of dynamic stick-slip events generated on a newly constructed 3 m biaxial friction apparatus at Cornell University (attached figure). In a typical experiment, two rectangular granite blocks are squeezed together under 4 or 7 MPa of normal pressure ( 4 or 7 million N on a 1 m2 fault surface), and then shear stress is increased until the fault slips 10 - 400 microns in a dynamic rupture event similar to a M -2 to M -3 earthquake. Some ruptures nucleate near the north end of the fault, where the shear force is applied, other ruptures nucleate 2 m from the north end of the fault. The samples are instrumented with 16 piezoelectric sensors, 16 eddy current sensors, and 8 strain gage rosettes, evenly placed along the fault to measure vertical ground motion, local slip, and local stress, respectively. We studied sequences of tens of slip events and identified a total of 194 foreshocks and 66 aftershocks located within 6 s time windows around the stick-slip events and analyzed their timing and locations relative to the quasistatic nucleation process. We found that the locations of the foreshocks and aftershocks were distributed all along the length of the fault, with the majority located at the ends of the fault where local normal and shear stress is highest (caused by both edge effects and the finite stiffness of the steel frame surrounding the granite blocks). We also opened the laboratory fault and inspected the fault surface and found increased wear at the sample ends. To explore the foreshocks' and aftershocks' relationship to the nucleation and afterslip, we compared the occurrence of foreshocks to the local slip rate on the laboratory fault closest to each foreshock in space and time. We found that that majority of foreshocks were generated from local slip rates between 1 and 100 microns/s, though we were not able to resolve slip rate lower than about 1 micron/s. Our experiments provide insight into how foreshocks and aftershocks in natural earthquakes may be influenced both by fault structure and slow slip associated with nucleation or afterslip.

FORESHOCK AND ATERSHOCK SEQUENCES OF SOME LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN THE REGION OF GREECE,

DTIC Science & Technology

or more foreshocks of magnitude larger than 3.8 occurred in forty per cent of the cases. The probability for an earthquake to be preceded by a large... foreshock not much smaller than the main shock is 10%. It is shown that some properties of the earth’s material in the aftershock region can be

Strong-motion observations of the M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence and development of the N-shake strong-motion network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dixit, Amod; Ringler, Adam; Sumy, Danielle F.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Hough, Susan E.; Martin, Stacey; Gibbons, Steven; Luetgert, James H.; Galetzka, John; Shrestha, Surya; Rajaure, Sudhir; McNamara, Daniel E.

2015-01-01

We present and describe strong-motion data observations from the 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence collected using existing and new Quake-Catcher Network (QCN) and U.S. Geological Survey NetQuakes sensors located in the Kathmandu Valley. A comparison of QCN data with waveforms recorded by a conventional strong-motion (NetQuakes) instrument validates the QCN data. We present preliminary analysis of spectral accelerations, and peak ground acceleration and velocity for earthquakes up to M 7.3 from the QCN stations, as well as preliminary analysis of the mainshock recording from the NetQuakes station. We show that mainshock peak accelerations were lower than expected and conclude the Kathmandu Valley experienced a pervasively nonlinear response during the mainshock. Phase picks from the QCN and NetQuakes data are also used to improve aftershock locations. This study confirms the utility of QCN instruments to contribute to ground-motion investigations and aftershock response in regions where conventional instrumentation and open-access seismic data are limited. Initial pilot installations of QCN instruments in 2014 are now being expanded to create the Nepal–Shaking Hazard Assessment for Kathmandu and its Environment (N-SHAKE) network.

Changes in the Seismicity and Focal Mechanism of Small Earthquakes Prior to an MS 6.7 Earthquake in the Central Aleutian Island Arc

USGS Publications Warehouse

Billington, Serena; Engdahl, E.R.; Price, Stephanie

1981-01-01

On November 4 1977, a magnitude Ms 6.7 (mb 5.7) shallow-focus thrust earthquake occurred in the vicinity of the Adak seismographic network in the central Aleutian island arc. The earthquake and its aftershock sequence occurred in an area that had not experienced a similar sequence since at least 1964. About 13 1/2 months before the main shock, the rate of occurrence of very small magnitude earthquakes increased abruptly in the immediate vicinity of the impending main shock. To search for possible variations in the focal mechanism of small events preceding the main shock, a method was developed that objectively combines first-motion data to generate composite focal-mechanism information about events occurring within a small source region. The method could not be successfully applied to the whole study area, but the results show that starting about 10 1/2 months before the November 1977 earthquake, there was a change in the mechanism of small- to moderate-sized earthquakes in the immediate vicinity of the hypocenter and possibly in other parts of the eventual aftershock zone, but not in the surrounding regions.

Characterization of active faulting beneath the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cassidy, J.F.; Rogers, Gary C.; Waldhauser, F.

2000-01-01

Southwestern British Columbia and northwestern Washington State are subject to megathrust earthquakes, deep intraslab events, and earthquakes in the continental crust. Of the three types of earthquakes, the most poorly understood are the crustal events. Despite a high level of seismicity, there is no obvious correlation between the historical crustal earthquakes and the mapped surface faults of the region. On 24 June 1997, a ML = 4.6 earthquake occurred 3-4 km beneath the Strait of Georgia, 30 km to the west of Vancouver, British Columbia. This well-recorded earthquake was preceded by 11 days by a felt foreshock (ML = 3.4) and was followed by numerous small aftershocks. This earthquake sequence occurred in one of the few regions of persistent shallow seismic activity in southwestern British Columbia, thus providing an ideal opportunity to attempt to characterize an active near-surface fault. We have computed focal mechanisms and utilized a waveform cross-correlation and joint hypocentral determination routine to obtain accurate relative hypocenters of the mainshock, foreshock, and 53 small aftershocks in an attempt to image the active fault and the extent of rupture associated with this earthquake sequence. Both P-nodal and CMT focal mechanisms show thrust faulting for the mainshock and the foreshock. The relocated hypocenters delineate a north-dipping plane at 2-4 km depth, dipping at 53??, in good agreement with the focal mechanism nodal plane dipping to the north at 47??. The rupture area is estimated to be a 1.3-km-diameter circular area, comparable to that estimated using a Brune rupture model with the estimated seismic moment of 3.17 ?? 1015 N m and the stress drop of 45 bars. The temporal sequence indicates a downdip migration of the seismicity along the fault plane. The results of this study provide the first unambiguous evidence for the orientation and sense of motion for active faulting in the Georgia Strait area of British Columbia.

Stress triggering in thrust and subduction earthquakes and stress interaction between the southern San Andreas and nearby thrust and strike-slip faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lin, J.; Stein, R.S.

2004-01-01

We argue that key features of thrust earthquake triggering, inhibition, and clustering can be explained by Coulomb stress changes, which we illustrate by a suite of representative models and by detailed examples. Whereas slip on surface-cutting thrust faults drops the stress in most of the adjacent crust, slip on blind thrust faults increases the stress on some nearby zones, particularly above the source fault. Blind thrusts can thus trigger slip on secondary faults at shallow depth and typically produce broadly distributed aftershocks. Short thrust ruptures are particularly efficient at triggering earthquakes of similar size on adjacent thrust faults. We calculate that during a progressive thrust sequence in central California the 1983 Mw = 6.7 Coalinga earthquake brought the subsequent 1983 Mw = 6.0 Nunez and 1985 Mw = 6.0 Kettleman Hills ruptures 10 bars and 1 bar closer to Coulomb failure. The idealized stress change calculations also reconcile the distribution of seismicity accompanying large subduction events, in agreement with findings of prior investigations. Subduction zone ruptures are calculated to promote normal faulting events in the outer rise and to promote thrust-faulting events on the periphery of the seismic rupture and its downdip extension. These features are evident in aftershocks of the 1957 Mw = 9.1 Aleutian and other large subduction earthquakes. We further examine stress changes on the rupture surface imparted by the 1960 Mw = 9.5 and 1995 Mw = 8.1 Chile earthquakes, for which detailed slip models are available. Calculated Coulomb stress increases of 2-20 bars correspond closely to sites of aftershocks and postseismic slip, whereas aftershocks are absent where the stress drops by more than 10 bars. We also argue that slip on major strike-slip systems modulates the stress acting on nearby thrust and strike-slip faults. We calculate that the 1857 Mw = 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas fault and subsequent interseismic slip brought the Coalinga fault ???1 bar closer to failure but inhibited failure elsewhere on the Coast Ranges thrust faults. The 1857 earthquake also promoted failure on the White Wolf reverse fault by 8 bars, which ruptured in the 1952 Mw = 7.3 Kern County shock but inhibited slip on the left-lateral Garlock fault, which has not ruptured since 1857. We thus contend that stress transfer exerts a control on the seismicity of thrust faults across a broad spectrum of spatial and temporal scales. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Options for developing modernized geodetic datum for Nepal following the April 25, 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, Chris; Manandhar, Niraj; Denys, Paul

2017-09-01

Along with the damage to buildings and infrastructure, the April 25, 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake caused significant deformation over a large area of eastern Nepal with displacements of over 2 m recorded in the vicinity of Kathmandu. Nepal currently uses a classical datum developed in 1984 by the Royal (UK) Engineers in collaboration with the Nepal Survey Department. It has served Nepal well; however, the recent earthquakes have provided an impetus for developing a semi-dynamic datum that will be based on ITRF2014 and have the capacity to correct for tectonic deformation. In the scenario we present here, the datum would be based on ITRF2014 with a reference epoch set some time after the end of the current sequence of earthquakes. The deformation model contains a grid of the secular velocity field combined with models of the Gorkha Earthquake and the May 12 Mw7.3 aftershock. We have developed a preliminary velocity field by collating GPS derived crustal velocities from four previous studies for Nepal and adjacent parts of China and India and aligning them to the ITRF. Patches for the co-seismic part of the deformation for the Gorkha earthquake and the May 12, 2015 Mw 7.2 aftershock are based on published dislocation models. High order control would be a CORS network based around the existing Nepal GPS Array. Coordinates for existing lower order control would be determined by readjusting existing survey measurements and these would be combined with a series of new control stations spread throughout Nepal.

The Impressive 1811-1812 New Madrid Earthquake Sequence and the Geologic Record of at Least Two Other Sequences in the Last 1000 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, R. A.

2011-12-01

The currently active New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) was the source of a series of major earthquakes and hundreds of aftershocks that began on December 16, 1811 and continued through 1812. At the time, the region was sparsely populated but today it is home to about 12 million people. Four earthquakes in this 1811-1812 sequence had magnitudes (M) from about 6.8-8.0 and were felt widely across the eastern U.S. as far as the Atlantic seaboard 1,700 km away. About a dozen aftershocks in the M5.0-6.3 range were also felt widely across the eastern U.S. The first earthquake occurred December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m. followed by the largest aftershock in the sequence (M6.8-7.0) at about 7:15 a.m.; the second main shock at 9 a.m. on January 23, 1812; and the third main shock on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These four principle shocks were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. Because of low seismic attenuation in the eastern U.S., the area of strong shaking of the December 16 main shock was about 10 times larger than that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake. The NMSZ produced large earthquakes in the M6.0-6.6 range in 1843 and 1895 and currently generates about 150 earthquakes annually in the M1.5-4 range. Though no instrumental data for the 1811-1812 earthquakes exist, first-hand accounts indicate that the mainshocks were followed by hundreds of aftershocks that lasted for months. They caused general alarm from Detroit (800 km) to New Orleans (700 km). In the epicentral region, Memphis, Tenn. was not yet established, but many homes were damaged in the 5500-inhabitant town of St. Louis, Mo. (250 km). The frontier trading towns of Little Prairie (now Caruthersville) and New Madrid, Mo., were severely damaged and temporarily evacuated. The 1811-1812 sequence left its mark on the landscape that endures today. During the earthquake, witnesses reported that the ground rose, fell, and cracked, and that trees snapped. Large landslides were triggered for 200 km on the Chickasaw Bluffs along the Mississippi River. Large areas were uplifted permanently, some of which dammed rivers to create lakes that remain today. Enormous volumes of water carrying sand erupted through countless fissures to form sand volcanoes or "sand blows" over a region about 240 km long and 80 km wide. Banks of the Mississippi River collapsed due to slumping and lateral spreading. Earth scientists studying the Reelfoot fault scarp and sand blows across the region have found that large earthquakes comparable to those in 1811-1812 were centered in the NMSZ in the past. Theses studies independently identified two New Madrid earthquake sequences in about A.D. 1450 and A.D. 900. Recently, 15 years of geodetic observations reveal little to no surface deformation in the NMSZ. Although intriguing, inferences about seismic hazard from these GPS measurements must be tempered by the much longer geologic record of repeating earthquake activity. The geographical spread of Quaternary faults, an apparent paucity of fault scarps at the surface, and the recurrent nature of faulting seen in seismic reflection data, all point toward an episodic and possibly temporally varying NMSZ earthquake history.

Aftershock risks such as those demonstrated by the recent events in New Zealand and Japan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shome, Nilesh; Luco, Nicolas; Gerstenberger, Matt; Boyd, Oliver; Field, Edward; Liel, Abbie; van de Lindt, John W.

2014-01-01

Recent earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan show that it is important to consider the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks following large magnitude events since the probability of high intensity ground motions from aftershocks, which are capable of causing significant societal impact, can be considerable. This is due to the fact that a mainshock will have many aftershocks, some of which may occur closer to populated areas and may be large enough to cause damage. When a large magnitude event strikes a region, the chance that aftershocks will cause damage can be significant as was observed after the 2011 Tohoku and 2010 Canterbury earthquakes (e.g., damage caused by Mw6.6 April 11, 2011 Fukushima-Hamadori earthquake following Tohoku earthquake or by Mw6.3 February 22, 2011 Christchurch earthquake following Canterbury earthquake). Aftershock events may further damage already damaged buildings, thereby further complicating assessments of risk to the built environment. In this paper, the issue of aftershock risk is addressed by summarizing current research regarding: (1) aftershock hazard, (2) structural fragility/vulnerability before and after the mainshock, and (3) change in risk due to aftershocks.

Comparing Foreshock Characteristics and Foreshock Forecasting in Observed and Simulated Earthquake Catalogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogata, Y.

2014-12-01

In our previous papers (Ogata et al., 1995, 1996, 2012; GJI), we characterized foreshock activity in Japan, and then presented a model that forecasts the probability that one or more earthquakes form a foreshock sequence; then we tested prospectively foreshock probabilities in the JMA catalog. In this talk, I compare the empirical results with results for synthetic catalogs in order to clarify whether or not these results are consistent with the description of the seismicity by a superposition of background activity and epidemic-type aftershock sequences (ETAS models). This question is important, because it is still controversially discussed whether the nucleation process of large earthquakes is driven by seismically cascading (ETAS-type) or by aseismic accelerating processes. To explore the foreshock characteristics, I firstly applied the same clustering algorithms to real and synthetic catalogs and analyzed the temporal, spatial and magnitude distributions of the selected foreshocks, to find significant differences particularly in the temporal acceleration and magnitude dependence. Finally, I calculated forecast scores based on a single-link cluster algorithm which could be appropriate for real-time applications. I find that the JMA catalog yields higher scores than all synthetic catalogs and that the ETAS models having the same magnitude sequence as the original catalog performs significantly better (more close to the reality) than ETAS-models with randomly picked magnitudes.

Bicentennial of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence December 2011-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2010-01-01

A series of earthquakes hit the New Madrid seismic zone of southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and adjacent parts of Tennessee and Kentucky, in December 1811 to February 1812. Three earthquakes had a magnitude of 7.0 or greater. The first earthquake occurred December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m.; the second 9 a.m. on January 23, 1812; and the third on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These three earthquakes were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. The main shocks were followed by many hundreds of aftershocks that lasted for decades. Many of the aftershocks were major earthquakes themselves. The area that was strongly shaken by the three main shocks was 2-3 times as large as the strongly shaken area of the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan earthquake, and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake.

A Report Of The December 6, 2016 Mw 6.5 Pidie Jaya, Aceh Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muzli, M.; Daniarsyad, G.; Nugraha, A. D.; Muksin, U.; Widiyantoro, S.; Bradley, K.; Wang, T.; Jousset, P. G.; Erbas, K.; Nurdin, I.; Wei, S.

2017-12-01

The December 6, 2016 Mw 6.5 earthquake in Pidie Jaya, Aceh was one of the devastating inland earthquakes in Sumatra that took away more than 100 people's life. Here we present our seismological analysis of the earthquake sequence. The earthquake focal mechanism inversions using regional BMKG broadband data and teleseismic waveform data all indicate a strike-slip focal mechanism with a centroid depth of 15 km. Preliminary finite fault inversion using teleseismic body waves prefers the fault plane with strike of 45 degree and dip of 50 degree, in agreement with the surface geology and USGS aftershock distributions. Nine broadband seismic stations were installed in the source region along the coast one week after the earthquake and have collected the data for one month. The data have been used to locate aftershocks with grid search and double-difference algorithm, which results in the lineup of the seismicity in NE-SW direction, in agreement with the fault inversion and geology results. Using the M4.0 calibration earthquake that was recorded by the temporally network, we relocated the mainshock epicenter, which is also consistent with fault geometry defined by the well located aftershocks. In addition, a portion of the seismicity shows a lineation in E-W direction, indicating a secondary fault that has not been identified before. Aftershock focal mechanisms determined by the first motion reveal similar solutions as the mainshock. The observed macro intensity data shows most of the damaged buildings are distributed along the coast, approximately perpendicular to the preferred fault strike instead of parallel with it. It appears that the distribution of damage is strongly related to the site conditions, since these strong shaking/damage regions are mainly located on the costal sedimentary soils.

Frontal compression along the Apennines thrust system: The Emilia 2012 example from seismicity to crustal structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiarabba, Claudio; De Gori, Pasquale; Improta, Luigi; Lucente, Francesco Pio; Moretti, Milena; Govoni, Aladino; Di Bona, Massimo; Margheriti, Lucia; Marchetti, Alessandro; Nardi, Anna

2014-12-01

The evolution of the Apennines thrust-and-fold belt is related to heterogeneous process of subduction and continental delamination that generates extension within the mountain range and compression on the outer front of the Adria lithosphere. While normal faulting earthquakes diffusely occur along the mountain chain, the sparse and poor seismicity in the compressional front does not permit to resolve the ambiguity that still exists about which structure accommodates the few mm/yr of convergence observed by geodetic data. In this study, we illustrate the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence that is the most significant series of moderate-to-large earthquakes developed during the past decades on the compressional front of the Apennines. Accurately located aftershocks, along with P-wave and Vp/Vs tomographic models, clearly reveal the geometry of the thrust system, buried beneath the Quaternary sediments of the Po Valley. The seismic sequence ruptured two distinct adjacent thrust faults, whose different dip, steep or flat, accounts for the development of the arc-like shape of the compressional front. The first shock of May 20 (Mw 6.0) developed on the middle Ferrara thrust that has a southward dip of about 30°. The second shock of May 29 (Mw 5.8) ruptured the Mirandola thrust that we define as a steep dipping (50-60°) pre-existing (Permo-Triassic) basement normal fault inverted during compression. The overall geometry of the fault system is controlled by heterogeneity of the basement inherited from the older extension. We also observe that the rupture directivity during the two main-shocks and the aftershocks concentration correlate with low Poisson ratio volumes, probably indicating that portions of the fault have experienced intense micro-damage.

The 1954 and 1980 Algerian earthquakes: implications for the characteristic-displacement model of fault behavior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dewey, J.W.

1991-01-01

Joint epicenter determination of earthquakes that occurred in northern Algeria near Ech Cheliff (named Orleansville in 1954 and El Asnam in 1980) shows that the earthquake of 9 September 1954 (M=6.5) occurred at nearly the same location as the earthquake of 10 October 1980 (M=7.3). The 1954 main shock and earliest aftershocks were concentrated close to the boundaries of segment B (nomenclature of Deschamps et al., 1982; King and Yielding, 1984) of the 1980 fault system, which was to experience approximately 8 m of slip in the 1980 earthquake. Later aftershocks of the 1954 earthquake were spread over a broad area, notably in a region north of the 1980 fault system that also experienced many aftershocks to the 1980 earthquake. The closeness of the 1954 main shock and earliest aftershocks to the 1980 segment B implies that the 1954 earthquake involved either 1) rupture of segment B proper, or 2) rupture of a distinct fault in the hanging wall of footwall block of segment B. -from Author

Vere-Jones' self-similar branching model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saichev, A.; Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095; Sornette, D.

2005-11-01

Motivated by its potential application to earthquake statistics as well as for its intrinsic interest in the theory of branching processes, we study the exactly self-similar branching process introduced recently by Vere-Jones. This model extends the ETAS class of conditional self-excited branching point-processes of triggered seismicity by removing the problematic need for a minimum (as well as maximum) earthquake size. To make the theory convergent without the need for the usual ultraviolet and infrared cutoffs, the distribution of magnitudes m{sup '} of daughters of first-generation of a mother of magnitude m has two branches m{sup '}m with exponent {beta}+d, where {beta} and d are two positive parameters. We investigate the condition and nature of the subcritical, critical, and supercritical regime in this and in an extended version interpolating smoothly between several models. We predict that the distribution of magnitudes of events triggered by a mother of magnitude m over all generations has also two branches m{sup '}m with exponent {beta}+h, with h=d{radical}(1-s), where s is the fraction of triggered events. This corresponds to a renormalization of the exponent d into h by the hierarchy of successive generations of triggered events. For a significant part of the parameter space, the distribution of magnitudes over a full catalog summed over an average steady flow of spontaneous sources (immigrants) reproduces the distribution of the spontaneous sources with a single branch and is blind to the exponents {beta},d of the distribution of triggered events. Since the distribution of earthquake magnitudes is usually obtained with catalogs including many sequences, we conclude that the two branches of the distribution of aftershocks are not directly observable and the model is compatible with real seismic catalogs. In summary, the exactly self-similar Vere-Jones model provides an attractive new approach to model triggered seismicity, which alleviates delicate questions on the role of magnitude cutoffs in other non-self-similar models. The new prediction concerning two branches in the distribution of magnitudes of aftershocks could be tested with recently introduced stochastic reconstruction methods, tailored to disentangle the different triggered sequences.« less

Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Moment Tensor Solutions of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake Aftershocks and Their Tectonic Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, X.; Dreger, D.; Ge, H.; Xu, P.; Wu, M.; Chiang, A.; Zhao, G.; Yuan, H.

2018-03-01

Following the mainshock of the 2008 M8 Wenchuan Earthquake, there were more than 300 ML ≥ 4.0 aftershocks that occurred between 12 May 2008 and 8 September 2010. We analyzed the broadband waveforms for these events and found 160 events with sufficient signal-to-noise levels to invert for seismic moment tensors. Considering the length of the activated fault and the distances to the recording stations, four velocity models were employed to account for variability in crustal structure. The moment tensor solutions show considerable variations with a mixture of mainly reverse and strike-slip mechanisms and a small number of normal events and ambiguous events. We analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of the aftershocks and their mechanism types to characterize the structure and the deformation occurring in the Longmen Shan fold and thrust belt. Our results suggest that the stress is very complex at the Longmen Shan fault zone. The moment tensors have both a spatial segmentation with two major categories of the moment tensor of thrust and strike slip; and a temporal pattern that the majority of the aftershocks gradually migrated to thrust-type events. The variability of aftershock mechanisms is a strong indication of significant tectonic release and stress reorganization that activated numerous small faults in the system.

The Mw 5.4 Reggio Emilia 1996 earthquake: active compressional tectonics in the Po Plain, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvaggi, G.; Ferulano, F.; Di Bona, M.; Frepoli, A.; Azzara, R.; Basili, A.; Chiarabba, C.; Ciaccio, M. G.; Di Luccio, F.; Lucente, F. P.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.

2001-01-01

We have analysed the seismic sequence that occurred in October 1996 near the town of Reggio Emilia on the southern edge of the Po Plain. The onset of the sequence was marked by a 5.4 moment magnitude main shock, located at 15km depth. The main-shock focal mechanism is a reverse solution with a strike-slip component and the scalar moment is 1.46×1017Nm. We used broad-band digital recordings from a borehole station, located at about 70km from the epicentre, for a spectral analysis in order to estimate attenuation and source parameters for the main shock. In addition, the empirical Green's function method has been applied to evaluate the source time function in terms of both moment rate and stress rate. We infer an asperity-like rupture process for the main shock, as suggested by the short duration of the stress release with respect to the overall duration of the moment rate function. This analysis also allows us to estimate the average dynamic stress drop of the main shock (600bar). We analysed the digital recordings of the temporary local seismic network deployed after the main shock and of a permanent local network maintained by the Italian Petroleum Agency (AGIP). During 15days of field experiments, we recorded more than 800 aftershocks, which delineate a 9km long, NE-elongated distribution, confined between 12 and 15km depth, suggesting that the basement is involved in the deformation processes. 102 focal mechanism of aftershocks have been computed from P-wave polarities, showing mainly pure reverse solutions. We calculate the principal stress axes from a selected population of earthquakes providing a constraint on the stress regime of this part of the Po Plain. The focal mechanisms are consistent with a N-S subhorizontal σ1. All the seismological data we have analysed confirm that this region is undergoing active compressional tectonics, as already inferred from recent earthquakes, geomorphological data and other stress indicators. Moreover, the elongation of the Reggio Emilia aftershock sequence is consistent with the regional direction of the thrust fronts cropping out in the area, suggesting that they are still active.

Search for Anisotropy Changes Associated with Two Large Earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savage, M. K.; Graham, K.; Aoki, Y.; Arnold, R.

2017-12-01

Seismic anisotropy is often considered to be an indicator of stress in the crust, because the closure of cracks due to differential stress leads to waves polarized parallel to the cracks travelling faster than the orthogonal direction. Changes in shear wave splitting have been suggested to result from stress changes at volcanoes and earthquakes. However, the effects of mineral or structural alignment, and the difficulty of distinguishing between changes in anisotropy along an earthquake-station path from distinguishing changes in the path itself, have made such findings controversial. Two large earthquakes in 2016 provide unique datasets to test the use of shear wave splitting for measuring variations in stress because clusters of closely-spaced earthquakes occurred both before and after a mainshock. We use the automatic, objective splitting analysis code MFAST to speed process and minimize unwitting observer bias when determining time variations. The sequence of earthquakes related to the M=7.2 Japanese Kumamoto earthquake of 14 April 2016 includes both foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The sequence was recorded by the NIED permanent network, which already contributed background seismic anisotropy measurements in a previous study of anisotropy and stress in Kyushu. Preliminary measurements of shear wave splitting from earthquakes that occurred in 2016 show results at some stations that clearly differ from those of the earlier study. They also change between earthquakes recorded before and after the mainshock. Further work is under way to determine whether the changes are more likely due to changes in stress during the observation time, or due to spatial changes in anisotropy combined with changes in earthquake locations. Likewise, background seismicity and also foreshocks and aftershocks in the 2013 Cook Strait earthquake sequence including two M=6.5 earthquakes in 2013 in New Zealand were in the same general region as aftershocks of the M=7.8 Kaikoura earthquake that occurred on 14 November 2016. Here again, preliminary analysis suggests the possibility that we are observing changes in stress, but detailed analysis is needed to confirm that.

A synthetic seismicity model for the Middle America Trench

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ward, Steven N.

1991-01-01

A novel iterative technique, based on the concept of fault segmentation and computed using 2D static dislocation theory, for building models of seismicity and fault interaction which are physically acceptable and geometrically and kinematically correct, is presented. The technique is applied in two steps to seismicity observed at the Middle America Trench. The first constructs generic models which randomly draw segment strengths and lengths from a 2D probability distribution. The second constructs predictive models in which segment lengths and strengths are adjusted to mimic the actual geography and timing of large historical earthquakes. Both types of models reproduce the statistics of seismicity over five units of magnitude and duplicate other aspects including foreshock and aftershock sequences, migration of foci, and the capacity to produce both characteristic and noncharacteristic earthquakes. Over a period of about 150 yr the complex interaction of fault segments and the nonlinear failure conditions conspire to transform an apparently deterministic model into a chaotic one.

Source parameters of the 1999 Osa peninsula (Costa Rica) earthquake sequence from spectral ratios analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdecchia, A.; Harrington, R. M.; Kirkpatrick, J. D.

2017-12-01

Many observations suggest that duration and size scale in a self-similar way for most earthquakes. Deviations from the expected scaling would suggest that some physical feature on the fault surface influences the speed of rupture differently at different length scales. Determining whether differences in scaling exist between small and large earthquakes is complicated by the fact that duration estimates of small earthquakes are often distorted by travel-path and site effects. However, when carefully estimated, scaling relationships between earthquakes may provide important clues about fault geometry and the spatial scales over which it affects fault rupture speed. The Mw 6.9, 20 August 1999, Quepos earthquake occurred on the plate boundary thrust fault along southern Costa Rica margin where the subducting seafloor is cut by numerous normal faults. The mainshock and aftershock sequence were recorded by land and (partially by) ocean bottom (OBS) seismic arrays deployed as part of the CRSEIZE experiment. Here we investigate the size-duration scaling of the mainshock and relocated aftershocks on the plate boundary to determine if a change in scaling exists that is consistent with a change in fault surface geometry at a specific length scale. We use waveforms from 5 short-period land stations and 12 broadband OBS stations to estimate corner frequencies (the inverse of duration) and seismic moment for several aftershocks on the plate interface. We first use spectral amplitudes of single events to estimate corner frequencies and seismic moments. We then adopt a spectral ratio method to correct for non-source-related effects and refine the corner frequency estimation. For the spectral ratio approach, we use pairs of earthquakes with similar waveforms (correlation coefficient > 0.7), with waveform similarity implying event co-location. Preliminary results from single spectra show similar corner frequency values among events of 0.5 ≤ M ≤ 3.6, suggesting a decrease in static stress drop with magnitude. Our next step is to refine corner frequency estimates using spectral ratios to see if the trend in corner frequency persists with small events, and to extend the magnitude range of the estimations using land-based recordings of the mainshock and two largest aftershocks, which occurred prior to the Osa array deployment.

Along-strike Variations in the Himalayas Illuminated by the Aftershock Sequence of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake Using the NAMASTE Local Seismic Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, M.; Ghosh, A.; Karplus, M. S.; Nabelek, J.; Sapkota, S. N.; Adhikari, L. B.; Klemperer, S. L.; Velasco, A. A.

2016-12-01

As a result of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, more than 8,000 people were killed from a combination of infrastructure failure and triggered landslides. This earthquake produced 4 m of peak co-seismic slip as the fault ruptured 130 km east under densely populated cities, such as Kathmandu. To understand earthquake dynamics in this part of the Himalayas and help mitigate similar future calamities by the next destructive event, it is imperative to study earthquake activities in detail and improve our understanding of the source and structural complexities. In response to the Gorkha event, multiple institutions developed and deployed a 10-month long dense seismic network called NAMASTE. It blanketed a 27,650 km2 area, mainly covering the rupture area of the Gorkha earthquake, in order to capture the dynamic sequence of aftershock behavior. The network consisted of a mix of 45 broadband, short-period, and strong motion sensors, with an average spacing of 20 km. From the first 6 months of data, starting approximately 1.5 after the mainshock, we develop a robust catalog containing over 3,000 precise earthquake locations, and local magnitudes that range between 0.3 and 4.9. The catalog has a magnitude of completeness of 1.5, and an overall low b-value of 0.78. Using the HypoDD algorithm, we relocate earthquake hypocenters with high precision, and thus illustrate the fault geometry down to depths of 25 km where we infer the location of the gently-dipping Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). Above the MFT, the aftershocks illuminate complex structure produced by relatively steeply dipping faults. Interestingly, we observe sharp along-strike change in the seismicity pattern. The eastern part of the aftershock area is significantly more active than the western part. The change in seismicity may reflect structural and/or frictional lateral heterogeneity in this part of the Himalayan fault system. Such along-strike variations play an important role in rupture complexities and arresting the mainshock from rupturing further east. This catalog serves as a starting point for not only identifying the physical processes controlling the earthquake cycles, but also areas of increased stress, in this segment of the Himalayas.

Observing Triggered Earthquakes Across Iran with Calibrated Earthquake Locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karasozen, E.; Bergman, E.; Ghods, A.; Nissen, E.

2016-12-01

We investigate earthquake triggering phenomena in Iran by analyzing patterns of aftershock activity around mapped surface ruptures. Iran has an intense level of seismicity (> 40,000 events listed in the ISC Bulletin since 1960) due to it accommodating a significant portion of the continental collision between Arabia and Eurasia. There are nearly thirty mapped surface ruptures associated with earthquakes of M 6-7.5, mostly in eastern and northwestern Iran, offering a rich potential to study the kinematics of earthquake nucleation, rupture propagation, and subsequent triggering. However, catalog earthquake locations are subject to up to 50 km of location bias from the combination of unknown Earth structure and unbalanced station coverage, making it challenging to assess both the rupture directivity of larger events and the spatial patterns of their aftershocks. To overcome this limitation, we developed a new two-tiered multiple-event relocation approach to obtain hypocentral parameters that are minimally biased and have realistic uncertainties. In the first stage, locations of small clusters of well-recorded earthquakes at local spatial scales (100s of events across 100 km length scales) are calibrated either by using near-source arrival times or independent location constraints (e.g. local aftershock studies, InSAR solutions), using an implementation of the Hypocentroidal Decomposition relocation technique called MLOC. Epicentral uncertainties are typically less than 5 km. Then, these events are used as prior constraints in the code BayesLoc, a Bayesian relocation technique that can handle larger datasets, to yield region-wide calibrated hypocenters (1000s of events over 1000 km length scales). With locations and errors both calibrated, the pattern of aftershock activity can reveal the type of the earthquake triggering: dynamic stress changes promote an increase in the seismicity rate in the direction of unilateral propagation, whereas static stress changes should not be biased by rupture propagation direction. Here we present results from Ahar, Baladeh, Qom, Rigan, Silakhour and Zirkuh clusters, that include early-instrumental and modern mainshock-aftershock sequences. These will in turn provide a greatly improved basis for research into seismic hazards in this region.

Seismotectonic Models of the Three Recent Devastating SCR Earthquakes in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooney, W. D.; Kayal, J.

2007-12-01

During the last decade, three devastating earthquakes, the Killari 1993 (Mb 6.3), Jabalpur 1997 (Mb 6.0) and the Bhuj 2001 (Mw 7.7) occurred in the Stable Continental Region (SCR), Peninsular India. First, the September 30, 1993 Killari earthquake (Mb 6.3) occurred in the Deccan province of central India, in the Latur district of Maharashtra state. The local geology in the area is obscured by the late Cretaceous-Eocene basalt flows, referred to as the Deccan traps. This makes it difficult to recognize the geological surface faults that could be associated with the Killari earthquake. The epicentre was reported at 18.090N and 76.620E, and the focal depth at 7 +/- 1 km was precisely estimated by waveform inversion (Chen and Kao, 1995). The maximum intensity reached to VIII and the earthquake caused a loss of about 10,000 lives and severe damage to property. The May 22, 1997 Jabalpur earthquake (Mb 6.0), epicentre at 23.080N and 80.060E, is a well studied earthquake in the Son-Narmada-Tapti (SONATA) seismic zone. A notable aspects of this earthquake is that it was the first significant event in India to be recorded by 10 broadband seismic stations which were established in 1996 by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The focal depth was well estimated using the "converted phases" of the broadband seismograms. The focal depth was given in the lower crust at a depth of 35 +/- 1 km, similar to the moderate earthquakes reported from the Amazona ancient rift system in SCR of South America. Maximum MSK intensity of the Jabalpur earthquake reached to VIII in the MSK scale and this earthquake killed about 50 people in the Jabalpur area. Finally, the Bhuj earthquake (MW 7.7) of January 26, 2001 in the Gujarat state, northwestern India, was felt across the whole country, and killed about 20,000 people. The maximum intensity level reached X. The epicenter of the earthquake is reported at 23.400N and 70.280E, and the well estimated focal depth at 25 km. A total of about 3000 aftershocks (M> 1.0) were recorded until mid April, 2001. About 500 aftershocks (M>2.0) are well located; the epicenter map shows an aftershock cluster area, about 60 km x 30 km, between 70.0-70.60E and 23.3-23.60N; almost all the aftershocks occurred within the high intensity (IX) zone. The source area of the main shock and most of the aftershocks are at a depth range of 20-25 km. The fault-plane solutions suggest that the main shock originated at the base of the paleo-rift zone by a south dipping, hidden reverse fault; the rupture propagated both NE and NW. The aftershocks occurred by left-lateral strike-slip motion along the NE trending fault, compatible with the main shock solution, and by pure reverse to right-lateral, strike-slip motion along the NW trending conjugate fault. Understanding these earthquake sequences may shed new light in on the tectonics and active faults in the source regions.

Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California: Animations built on earthquake stress transfer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.; Richards-Dinger, K.; Bozkurt, S.B.

2005-01-01

We develop a forecast model to reproduce the distibution of main shocks, aftershocks and surrounding seismicity observed during 1986-200 in a 300 ?? 310 km area centered on the 1992 M = 7.3 Landers earthquake. To parse the catalog into frames with equal numbers of aftershocks, we animate seismicity in log time increments that lengthen after each main shock; this reveals aftershock zone migration, expansion, and densification. We implement a rate/state algorithm that incorporates the static stress transferred by each M ??? 6 shock and then evolves. Coulomb stress changes amplify the background seismicity, so small stress changes produce large changes in seismicity rate in areas of high background seismicity. Similarly, seismicity rate declines in the stress shadows are evident only in areas with previously high seismicity rates. Thus a key constituent of the model is the background seismicity rate, which we smooth from 1981 to 1986 seismicity. The mean correlation coefficient between observed and predicted M ??? 1.4 shocks (the minimum magnitude of completeness) is 0.52 for 1986-2003 and 0.63 for 1992-2003; a control standard aftershock model yields 0.54 and 0.52 for the same periods. Four M ??? 6.0 shocks struck during the test period; three are located at sites where the expected seismicity rate falls above the 92 percentile, and one is located above the 75 percentile. The model thus reproduces much, but certainly not all, of the observed spatial and temporal seismicity, from which we infer that the decaying effect of stress transferred by successive main shocks influences seismicity for decades. Finally, we offer a M ??? 5 earthquake forecast for 2005-2015, assigning probabilities to 324 10 ?? 10 km cells.

How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?

PubMed Central

Langenbruch, Cornelius; Zoback, Mark D.

2016-01-01

In response to the marked number of injection-induced earthquakes in north-central Oklahoma, regulators recently called for a 40% reduction in the volume of saltwater being injected in the seismically active areas. We present a calibrated statistical model that predicts that widely felt M ≥ 3 earthquakes in the affected areas, as well as the probability of potentially damaging larger events, should significantly decrease by the end of 2016 and approach historic levels within a few years. Aftershock sequences associated with relatively large magnitude earthquakes that occurred in the Fairview, Cherokee, and Pawnee areas in north-central Oklahoma in late 2015 and 2016 will delay the rate of seismicity decrease in those areas. PMID:28138533

Vertical deformation of the Ubaye valley (South East part of the French Alps) monitored by precise leveling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilbert, Ferhat; Gilles, Ménard; Malet, Jean-Philippe

2017-04-01

The Ubaye valley (South East French Alps) is one of the most seismically active region of the massif (Saint-Paul-sur-Ubaye Ml=5.5 earthquake of 1959). Since at least 1977, several seismic crisis occurred. In 1989, 250 seismic events are reported. In 2003-2004, a seismic swarm generated 16000 micro-earthquakes East of the town of Barcelonnette. The observed migration of events suggested that overpressure of fluids was responsible for the activity (Jenatton et al., 2007; Daniel et al., 2011). A few kilometers to the North, in February 2012, a Ml=4.5 earthquake affected the region. This earthquake was followed by thousands of aftershocks which rate decreased very slowly in time. On April 7th 2014, an Ml=5.2 earthquake occurred (Thouvenot et al., 2016). Again it was followed by thousands of aftershocks; the present-day activity is still very high, much higher than a classic mainshock-aftershock sequence. Since, the seismic activity has never really decreased, being still very active in October 2016. As a matter of fact, the 2012-2016 seismic sequence shows a dual seismogenic behavior, including both sustained migrating seismic swarms (Ml<3) and short-term mainshock-aftershocks sequences (Ml>4). To understand the seismic activity and its effects on surface deformation, we used precise leveling along a 30 km long-profile from the municipality of Barcelonnette (to the West) to the municipality of Meyronnes and Saint-Paul-sur-Ubaye (to the East). Several historical leveling sections were observed in 1909, 1949 and 1969 by the French Mapping Agency (IGN), and by research institutes in 2005, 2006 and 2014. We present the results of the comparison of the leveling over one century. We discuss its possible links to the regional seismic activity or to the local presence of unstable slopes. We observe a change of tilting of the N-S section of Jausiers / Saint-Paul-sur-Ubaye (subsidence of 1 mm.yr-1 before 2005, and uplift of 3.5 mm.yr-1 after 2005), which may be linked to a change of stress regime in the valley as suggested by fluid pressures changes and its response in terms of seismic swarm activity. Moreover in the Meyronnes sector, we observe changes in displacement rates over the period 1909 - 1949 - 1969 - 2005 - 2014. These variations may be linked to unstable slopes in the village. The acceleration between 1949 and 1969 may be related to the Ml-5.5 earthquake of 1959. The deceleration after 2005 might be related to the mitigation works (surface drainage) installed in 2002.

Aftershock Seismicity of the 27 February 2010 Maule Earthquake and its Relation to Postseismic Displacements from GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, D.; Moreno, M. S.; Tilmann, F. J.; Baez, J.; Barrientos, S. E.; Beck, S. L.; Bernard, P.; Bevis, M. G.; Brooks, B. A.; Contreras Reyes, E.; Heit, B.; Methe, P.; Tassara, A.; Vilotte, J.; Vigny, C.

2011-12-01

On 27 February 2010 the Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake in Central Chile ruptured a seismic gap where significant strain had accumulated since 1835. Shortly after the mainshock a dense network of temporary seismic landstations was installed along the whole rupture zone in order to capture the aftershock activity. We present the aftershock distribution and first motion polarity focal mechanisms based on automatic detection algorithms and picking engines. Processing the seismic data between 15 March and 30 September 2010 from stations from IRIS, IPGP, Caltech and GFZ, we determined 19,908~hypocentres with magnitudes Mw between 1 and 6.2. Seismic activity occurs in six groups: 1.) Normal faulting outer rise events 2.) A shallow group of plate interface seismicity apparent at 25-35 km depth and 50-120 km distance to the trench. Along strike, the aftershocks occur largely within the zone of co-seismic slip but extend ~50 km further north. Along dip, the events are either within the zone of co-seismic slip, or downdip from it, depending on the slip model used. 3.) A third band of seismicity is observed further downdip at 40-50 km depth and further inland at 150-160 km trench perpendicular distance, with mostly shallow dipping thrust focal mechanisms indicating rupture of the plate interface significantly downdip of the co-seismic rupture, and presumably above the intersection of the continental Moho with the plate interface. 4.) A deep group of intermediate depth events between 80 to 120 km depth are present north of 36°S. 5.) The magmatic arc exhibits a small amount of crustal seismicity but does not appear to show significantly enhanced activity after the mainshock 6.) Pronounced crustal aftershock activity is found in the region of Pichilemu (~34.5°S). The time-series of postseismic deformation analyzed here show rapid transient deformation immediately following the Maule earthquake. We examine the relation between the spatial-temporal properties of the aftershock distribution and postseismic displacements from GPS. First results show a linear relationship between cumulative displacement and cumulative number of aftershocks at large times (>25d, when the local aftershock catalog is available). This relationship may be use to infer rheological properties. Similar relations have been observed in other large subduction zone earthquakes.

Direct test of static stress versus dynamic stress triggering of aftershocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, F.F.; Johnston, M.J.S.

2006-01-01

Aftershocks observed over time scales of minutes to months following a main shock are plausibly triggered by the static stress change imparted by the main shock, dynamic shaking effects associated with passage of seismic waves from the main shock, or a combination of the two. We design a direct test of static versus dynamic triggering of aftershocks by comparing the near-field temporal aftershock patterns generated by aseismic and impulsive events occurring in the same source area. The San Juan Bautista, California, area is ideally suited for this purpose because several events of both types of M???5 have occurred since 1974. We find that aftershock rates observed after impulsive events are much higher than those observed after aseismic events, and this pattern persists for several weeks after the event. This suggests that, at least in the near field, dynamic triggering is the dominant cause of aftershocks, and that it generates both immediate and delayed aftershock activity.

A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward; Milner, Kevin R.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Page, Morgan T.; van der Elst, Nicholas; Jordan, Thomas H.; Michael, Andrew J.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Werner, Maximillan J.

2017-01-01

We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) component to the previously published time‐independent and long‐term time‐dependent forecasts. This combined model, referred to as UCERF3‐ETAS, collectively represents a relaxation of segmentation assumptions, the inclusion of multifault ruptures, an elastic‐rebound model for fault‐based ruptures, and a state‐of‐the‐art spatiotemporal clustering component. It also represents an attempt to merge fault‐based forecasts with statistical seismology models, such that information on fault proximity, activity rate, and time since last event are considered in OEF. We describe several unanticipated challenges that were encountered, including a need for elastic rebound and characteristic magnitude–frequency distributions (MFDs) on faults, both of which are required to get realistic triggering behavior. UCERF3‐ETAS produces synthetic catalogs of M≥2.5 events, conditioned on any prior M≥2.5 events that are input to the model. We evaluate results with respect to both long‐term (1000 year) simulations as well as for 10‐year time periods following a variety of hypothetical scenario mainshocks. Although the results are very plausible, they are not always consistent with the simple notion that triggering probabilities should be greater if a mainshock is located near a fault. Important factors include whether the MFD near faults includes a significant characteristic earthquake component, as well as whether large triggered events can nucleate from within the rupture zone of the mainshock. Because UCERF3‐ETAS has many sources of uncertainty, as will any subsequent version or competing model, potential usefulness needs to be considered in the context of actual applications.

Characterizing the Kathmandu Valley sediment response through strong motion recordings of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rajaure, S.; Asimaki, Domniki; Thompson, Eric M.; Hough, Susan E.; Martin, Stacey; Ampuero, J.P.; Dhital, M.R.; Inbal, A; Takai, N; Shigefuji, M.; Bijukchhen, S; Ichiyanagi, M; Sasatani, T; Paudel, L

2017-01-01

We analyze strong motion records and high-rate GPS measurements of the M 7.8 Gorkha mainshock, M 7.3 Dolakha, and two moderate aftershock events recorded at four stations on the Kathmandu basin sediments, and one on rock-outcrop. Recordings on soil from all four events show systematic amplification relative to the rock site at multiple frequencies in the 0.1–2.5 Hz frequency range, and de-amplification of higher frequencies ( >2.5–10 Hz). The soil-to-rock amplification ratios for the M 7.8 and M 7.3 events have lower amplitude and frequency peaks relative to the ratios of the two moderate events, effects that could be suggestive of nonlinear site response. Further, comparisons to ground motion prediction equations show that 1) both soil and rock mainshock recordings were severely depleted of high frequencies, and 2) the depletion at high frequencies is not present in the aftershocks. These observations indicate that the high frequency deamplification is additionally related to characteristics of the source that are not captured by simplified ground motion prediction equations, and allude to seismic hazard analysis models being revised – possibly by treating isolated high frequency radiation sources separately from long period components to capture large magnitude near-source events such as the 2015 Gorkha mainshock.

Southern San Andreas Fault seismicity is consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Page, Morgan T.; Felzer, Karen

2015-01-01

The magnitudes of any collection of earthquakes nucleating in a region are generally observed to follow the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. On some major faults, however, paleoseismic rates are higher than a G-R extrapolation from the modern rate of small earthquakes would predict. This, along with other observations, led to formulation of the characteristic earthquake hypothesis, which holds that the rate of small to moderate earthquakes is permanently low on large faults relative to the large-earthquake rate (Wesnousky et al., 1983; Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984). We examine the rate difference between recent small to moderate earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) and the paleoseismic record, hypothesizing that the discrepancy can be explained as a rate change in time rather than a deviation from G-R statistics. We find that with reasonable assumptions, the rate changes necessary to bring the small and large earthquake rates into alignment agree with the size of rate changes seen in epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) modeling, where aftershock triggering of large earthquakes drives strong fluctuations in the seismicity rates for earthquakes of all magnitudes. The necessary rate changes are also comparable to rate changes observed for other faults worldwide. These results are consistent with paleoseismic observations of temporally clustered bursts of large earthquakes on the SSAF and the absence of M greater than or equal to 7 earthquakes on the SSAF since 1857.

Relating triggering processes in lab experiments with earthquakes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baro Urbea, J.; Davidsen, J.; Kwiatek, G.; Charalampidou, E. M.; Goebel, T.; Stanchits, S. A.; Vives, E.; Dresen, G.

2016-12-01

Statistical relations such as Gutenberg-Richter's, Omori-Utsu's and the productivity of aftershocks were first observed in seismology, but are also common to other physical phenomena exhibiting avalanche dynamics such as solar flares, rock fracture, structural phase transitions and even stock market transactions. All these examples exhibit spatio-temporal correlations that can be explained as triggering processes: Instead of being activated as a response to external driving or fluctuations, some events are consequence of previous activity. Although different plausible explanations have been suggested in each system, the ubiquity of such statistical laws remains unknown. However, the case of rock fracture may exhibit a physical connection with seismology. It has been suggested that some features of seismology have a microscopic origin and are reproducible over a vast range of scales. This hypothesis has motivated mechanical experiments to generate artificial catalogues of earthquakes at a laboratory scale -so called labquakes- and under controlled conditions. Microscopic fractures in lab tests release elastic waves that are recorded as ultrasonic (kHz-MHz) acoustic emission (AE) events by means of piezoelectric transducers. Here, we analyse the statistics of labquakes recorded during the failure of small samples of natural rocks and artificial porous materials under different controlled compression regimes. Temporal and spatio-temporal correlations are identified in certain cases. Specifically, we distinguish between the background and triggered events, revealing some differences in the statistical properties. We fit the data to statistical models of seismicity. As a particular case, we explore the branching process approach simplified in the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. We evaluate the empirical spatio-temporal kernel of the model and investigate the physical origins of triggering. Our analysis of the focal mechanisms implies that the occurrence of the empirical laws extends well beyond purely frictional sliding events, in contrast to what is often assumed.

Imaging the Crust in the Northern Sector of the 2009 L'Aquila Seismic Sequence through Oil Exploration Data Interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grazia Ciaccio, Maria; Improta, Luigi; Patacca, Etta; Scandone, Paolo; Villani, Fabio

2010-05-01

The 2009 L'Aquila seismic sequence activated a complex, about 40 km long, NW-trending and SW-dipping normal fault system, consisting of three main faults arranged in right-lateral en-echelon geometry. While the northern sector of the epicentral area was extensively investigated by oil companies, only a few scattered, poor-quality commercial seismic profiles are available in the central and southern sector. In this study we interpret subsurface commercial data from the northern sector, which is the area where is located the source of the strong Mw5.4 aftershock occurred on the 9th April 2009. Our primary goals are: (1) to define a reliable framework of the upper crust structure, (2) to investigate how the intense aftershock activity, the bulk of which is clustered in the 5-10 km depth range, relates to the Quaternary extensional faults present in the area. The investigated area lies between the western termination of the W-E trending Gran Sasso thrust system to the south, the SW-NE trending Mt. Sibillini thrust front (Ancona-Anzio Line Auctt.) to the north and west, and by the NNW-SSE trending, SW-dipping Mt. Gorzano normal fault to the east. In this area only middle-upper Miocene deposits are exposed (Laga Flysch and underlying Cerrogna Marl), but commercial wells have revealed the presence of a Triassic-Miocene sedimentary succession identical to the well known Umbria-Marche stratigraphic sequence. We have analyzed several confidential seismic reflection profiles, mostly provided by ENI oil company. Seismic lines are tied to two public wells, 5766 m and 2541 m deep. Quality of the reflection imaging is highly variable. A few good quality stack sections contain interpretable signal down to 4.5-5.5 s TWT, corresponding to depths exceeding 10-12 km and thus allowing crustal imaging at seismogenic depths. Key-reflectors for the interpretation correspond to: (1) the top of the Miocene Cerrogna marls, (2) the top of the Upper Albian-Oligocene Scaglia Group, (3) the Aptian-Albian Fucoid Marl horizon, (4) the top of the upper Jurassic "Calcari ad Aptici" Formation, (5) the top of the upper Triassic dolomites plus evaporites of the Burano Formation. Strong but discontinuous deep reflectors can be reasonably attributed to the Paleozoic-Trassic clastic sequence underlying the evaporites. Neogene compression is responsible for a system of NNW-SSE trending fault-propagation folds which have often grown on top of popup-like structures. Extensional features include shallow-seated low-angle faults, likely related to gravitational readjustments on top of compressional features, and younger NNW-SSE trending high-angle faults. The major high-angle fault in the investigated area is represented by the Mt. Gorzano Fault, a regional structure the surface trace of which is at least 20 km long. The Mt. Gorzano Fault is a listric fault that dips around 60° in the first 2 s TWT and flattens at greater depths until it becomes sub-horizontal at about 5 s TWT, i.e. at a depth averaging 12 kilometers. Depth converted sections, calibrated by well data, indicate that the bulk of the aftershock activity is confined between the Triassic dolomites plus evaporites and the underlying Paleozoic-Triassic terrigenous deposits, without affecting the overlying carbonates. Events alignment revealed by accurate Double-Difference relative locations suggests that the Mw5.4 aftershock activated a 12 km-long segment of the Mt. Gorzano Fault at depths ranging from 5 to 10-12 kilometers. Aftershocks cluster in the hanging-wall of the deep portion of the fault recognized in the stack sections, whose geometry is consistent with the fault plane highlighted by earthquakes alignment.

What Is Better Than Coulomb Failure Stress? A Ranking of Scalar Static Stress Triggering Mechanisms from 105 Mainshock-Aftershock Pairs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meade, Brendan J.; DeVries, Phoebe M. R.; Faller, Jeremy; Viegas, Fernanda; Wattenberg, Martin

2017-11-01

Aftershocks may be triggered by the stresses generated by preceding mainshocks. The temporal frequency and maximum size of aftershocks are well described by the empirical Omori and Bath laws, but spatial patterns are more difficult to forecast. Coulomb failure stress is perhaps the most common criterion invoked to explain spatial distributions of aftershocks. Here we consider the spatial relationship between patterns of aftershocks and a comprehensive list of 38 static elastic scalar metrics of stress (including stress tensor invariants, maximum shear stress, and Coulomb failure stress) from 213 coseismic slip distributions worldwide. The rates of true-positive and false-positive classification of regions with and without aftershocks are assessed with receiver operating characteristic analysis. We infer that the stress metrics that are most consistent with observed aftershock locations are maximum shear stress and the magnitude of the second and third invariants of the stress tensor. These metrics are significantly better than random assignment at a significance level of 0.005 in over 80% of the slip distributions. In contrast, the widely used Coulomb failure stress criterion is distinguishable from random assignment in only 51-64% of the slip distributions. These results suggest that a number of alternative scalar metrics are better predictors of aftershock locations than classic Coulomb failure stress change.

Gravity and magnetic anomalies used to delineate geologic features associated with earthquakes and aftershocks in the central Virginia seismic zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, A. K.; Horton, J.; McNamara, D. E.; Spears, D.; Burton, W. C.

2013-12-01

Estimating seismic hazard in intraplate environments can be challenging partly because events are relatively rare and associated data thus limited. Additionally, in areas such as the central Virginia seismic zone, numerous pre-existing faults may or may not be candidates for modern tectonic activity, and other faults may not have been mapped. It is thus important to determine whether or not specific geologic features are associated with seismic events. Geophysical and geologic data collected in response to the Mw5.8 August 23, 2011 central Virginia earthquake provide excellent tools for this purpose. Portable seismographs deployed within days of the main shock showed a series of aftershocks mostly occurring at depths of 3-8 km along a southeast-dipping tabular zone ~10 km long, interpreted as the causative fault or fault zone. These instruments also recorded shallow (< 4 km) aftershocks clustered in several areas at distances of ~2-15 km from the main fault zone. We use new airborne geophysical surveys (gravity, magnetics, radiometrics, and LiDAR) to delineate the distribution of various surface and subsurface geologic features of interest in areas where the earthquake and aftershocks took place. The main (causative fault) aftershock cluster coincides with a linear, NE-trending gravity gradient (~ 2 mgal/km) that extends over 20 km in either direction from the Mw5.8 epicenter. Gravity modeling incorporating seismic estimates of Moho variations suggests the presence of a shallow low-density body overlying the main aftershock cluster, placing it within the upper 2-4 km of the main-fault hanging wall. The gravity, magnetic, and radiometric data also show a bend in generally NE-SW orientation of anomalies close to the Mw5.8 epicenter. Most shallow aftershock clusters occur near weaker short-wavelength gravity gradients of one to several km length. In several cases these gradients correspond to geologic contacts mapped at the surface. Along the gravity gradients, the aftershocks appear to cluster near areas with cross-cutting geologic features such as Jurassic diabase dikes. These associations suggest that local variations in rock density and/or rheology may have contributed to modifications of local stress regimes in a manner encouraging localized seismicity associated with the Mw5.8 event and its aftershocks. Such associations are comparable to results of previous studies recognizing correspondences between seismicity and features such as intrusive bodies and failed rifts in the New Madrid seismic zone and elsewhere. To explore whether similar correspondences may have occurred in the past, we use regional gravity and magnetic data to consider possible relations between historical earthquakes and comparable geologic features elsewhere in the central Virginia seismic zone.

Influence of fault geometry and tectonic driving stress orientation on the mechanics of multifault earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madden, E. H.; Maerten, F.; Pollard, D. D.

2012-12-01

The M 7.3 28 June 1992 Landers, California earthquake was a well-documented event that highlighted the complex relationship between the earthquake and the multiple faults on which it occurred. Not only was fault slip data mapped in the field in detail, due to good exposure in the arid conditions of the Mojave Desert, but also it was one of the first earthquakes for which the surface displacement field was captured by satellite technology. In addition, precise aftershock relocations and fault plane solutions provide information about stress and fault behavior at depth. Study of fault interactions leading to the linkage of five right-lateral, strike-slip faults at Landers is aided by this abundance of available surface and subsurface data. While mapped near-field surface data often are restricted to the realm of the geologist, and subsurface data, such as aftershocks, often are restricted to the realm of the geophysicist, we find that integrating these data in mechanical forward models provides good constraint on the three-dimensional structures of the faults involved. Mechanical models also reveal that fault geometry and the orientation of the tectonic driving stress greatly influence whether or not slip is promoted across the extensional step between two of the faults along the southern-central rupture and elucidate the role of a crossing fault located within the step. Unfortunately, the orientation of the principal stresses are not well constrained near Landers or in many regions around the world. Previous determinations of the tectonic driving stress at Landers range from 7 degrees to 45 degrees, measured clockwise from North. We introduce a new stress inversion method that honors mechanical relationships among the remote stress state that is being inverted for, mainshock fault slip, the resulting total stress field following fault slip, and aftershocks. Use of the principal of superposition in this new algorithm obviates the need for the prohibitive computation times associated with running successive forward models. We apply the inverse method using aftershock, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Positioning System (GPS) data associated with the Landers earthquake and address how fault geometry and aftershock size, timing, and focal mechanism quality influence inversion results. The advantages of this new method are that: (1) coseismic displacement data can be used, (2) the underlying model is better constrained to find a solution in the parameter space in the presence of fault slip perturbations, (3) absolute magnitudes can be recovered when using data with magnitude information such as GPS, InSAR and stress tensors inferred from aftershocks with known magnitudes. In addition, while one can choose to invert for an Andersonian fault regime, the method is not restricted to that particular case with one vertical principal stress.

Improvement of Earthquake Epicentral Locations Using T-Phases: Testing by Comparison With Surface Wave Relative Event Locations

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-10-01

deployment of 51 ocean -bottom seismometers (OBS) on the seafloor spanning 800 km across the East Pacific Rise provides a unique opportunity to test the...aftershock sequence of earthquakes at the northern end of the Easter microplate . In addition, for the larger earthquakes, we can compare relative... ocean -bottom seismometers OBJECTIVES The objectives of this research are To explore the synergy between hydroacoustic and seismic techniques

Broadband Discrimination Studies

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-03-01

Oroville. This low seismicity continued through initial loading of nearby Oroville Dam in 1967-68 and until the first foreshock on June 28, 1975...Twenty-one foreshocks (ML > 1.6), the largest of magnitude 4.7, preceded the magnitude 5.7 main shock of 01 August. All foreshocks and aftershocks of ML...preceded by foreshocks beginning on June 28, 1975, the largest of which had ML = 3.5 (Table 1); the sequence appeared to have died out (only five events

The 2015 Illapel earthquake, central Chile: A type case for a characteristic earthquake?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmann, F.; Zhang, Y.; Moreno, M.; Saul, J.; Eckelmann, F.; Palo, M.; Deng, Z.; Babeyko, A.; Chen, K.; Baez, J. C.; Schurr, B.; Wang, R.; Dahm, T.

2016-01-01

On 16 September 2015, the MW = 8.2 Illapel megathrust earthquake ruptured the Central Chilean margin. Combining inversions of displacement measurements and seismic waveforms with high frequency (HF) teleseismic backprojection, we derive a comprehensive description of the rupture, which also predicts deep ocean tsunami wave heights. We further determine moment tensors and obtain accurate depth estimates for the aftershock sequence. The earthquake nucleated near the coast but then propagated to the north and updip, attaining a peak slip of 5-6 m. In contrast, HF seismic radiation is mostly emitted downdip of the region of intense slip and arrests earlier than the long period rupture, indicating smooth slip along the shallow plate interface in the final phase. A superficially similar earthquake in 1943 with a similar aftershock zone had a much shorter source time function, which matches the duration of HF seismic radiation in the recent event, indicating that the 1943 event lacked the shallow slip.

Microaftershock survey of the 1978 Bermuda rise earthquake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nishenko, S.P.; Purdy, G.M.; Ewing, J.I.

1982-12-10

On March 24, 1978, a magnitude 6.0 intraplate earthquake occurred 380 km southwest of Bermuda near magnetic anomaly M4 (roughly-equal118 m.y.B.P.). A catalog of seismicity for the Bermuda rise indicates that this is an area of significant intraplate seismicity in the western North Atlantic Ocean. The fault plane solution for the 1978 event is of thrust type and strikes 340/sup 0/, in an intermediate direction to the trends of major fracture zones (300/sup 0/) and abyssal hill topography (035/sup 0/) in the area. The P axis of this mechanism is nearly horizontal and trends 259/sup 0/, subparallel to the absolutemore » plate motion vector for North America. Aftershock activity was detected teleseismically for approximately 8 months after March 24, and the entire sequence is best described as a prolonged mainshock-aftershock series. During June 18--28, 1978, we conducted a microaftershock survey of the area using ocean bottom hydrophones and recorded 250 events (0« less

Distribution and migration of aftershocks of the 2010 Mw 7.4 Ogasawara Islands intraplate normal-faulting earthquake related to a fracture zone in the Pacific plate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obana, Koichiro; Takahashi, Tsutomu; No, Tetsuo; Kaiho, Yuka; Kodaira, Shuichi; Yamashita, Mikiya; Sato, Takeshi; Nakamura, Takeshi

2014-04-01

describe the aftershocks of a Mw 7.4 intraplate normal-faulting earthquake that occurred 150 km east Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands, Japan, on 21 December 2010. It occurred beneath the outer trench slope of the Izu-Ogasawara trench, where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the Philippine Sea plate. Aftershock observations using ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) began soon after the earthquake and multichannel seismic reflection surveys were conducted across the aftershock area. Aftershocks were distributed in a NW-SE belt 140 km long, oblique to the N-S trench axis. They formed three subparallel lineations along a fracture zone in the Pacific plate. The OBS observations combined with data from stations on Chichi-jima and Haha-jima Islands revealed a migration of the aftershock activity. The first hour, which likely outlines the main shock rupture, was limited to an 80 km long area in the central part of the subsequent aftershock area. The first hour activity occurred mainly around, and appears to have been influenced by, nearby large seamounts and oceanic plateau, such as the Ogasawara Plateau and the Uyeda Ridge. Over the following days, the aftershocks expanded beyond or into these seamounts and plateau. The aftershock distribution and migration suggest that crustal heterogeneities related to a fracture zone and large seamounts and oceanic plateau in the incoming Pacific plate affected the rupture of the main shock. Such preexisting structures may influence intraplate normal-faulting earthquakes in other regions of plate flexure prior to subduction.

High-Resolution Uitra Low Power, Intergrated Aftershock and Microzonation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passmore, P.; Zimakov, L. G.

2012-12-01

Rapid Aftershock Mobilization plays an essential role in the understanding of both focal mechanism and rupture propagation caused by strong earthquakes. A quick assessment of the data provides a unique opportunity to study the dynamics of the entire earthquake process in-situ. Aftershock study also provides practical information for local authorities regarding the post earthquake activity, which is very important in order to conduct the necessary actions for public safety in the area affected by the strong earthquake. Refraction Technology, Inc. has developed a self-contained, fully integrated Aftershock System, model 160-03, providing the customer simple and quick deployment during aftershock emergency mobilization and microzonation studies. The 160-03 has no external cables or peripheral equipment for command/control and operation in the field. The 160-03 contains three major components integrated in one case: a) 24-bit resolution state-of-the art low power ADC with CPU and Lid interconnect boards; b) power source; and c) three component 2 Hz sensors (two horizontals and one vertical), and built-in ±4g accelerometer. Optionally, the 1 Hz sensors can be built-in the 160-03 system at the customer's request. The self-contained rechargeable battery pack provides power autonomy up to 7 days during data acquisition at 200 sps on continuous three weak motion and triggered three strong motion recording channels. For longer power autonomy, the 160-03 Aftershock System battery pack can be charged from an external source (solar power system). The data in the field is recorded to a built-in swappable USB flash drive. The 160-03 configuration is fixed based on a configuration file stored on the system, so no external command/control interface is required for parameter setup in the field. For visual control of the system performance in the field, the 160-03 has a built-in LED display which indicates the systems recording status as well as a hot swappable USB drive and battery status. The detailed specifications and performance are presented and discussed.;

Comment on "The May 20 (MW 6.1) and 29 (MW 6.0), 2012, Emilia (Po Plain, Northern Italy) earthquakes: New seismotectonic implications from subsurface geology and high-quality hypocenter location" by Carannante et al., 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonini, Lorenzo; Toscani, Giovanni; Seno, Silvio

2016-10-01

Carannante et al. (2015) proposed an original seismotectonic interpretation of the Ferrara arc in the Po Plain (Italy) based on an accurate hypocenter relocation of the 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence and on structural analyses of sub-surface data. They contend that the causative faults of the 2012 sequence do not belong to the fold-and-thrusts system comprising the Ferrara Arc but in fact are located in the underlying basement. In our view this interpretation does not agree with observations, including: 1) the structural interpretation of the seismic reflection lines, that contrasts with some of the available data, e.g. the stratigraphy inferred from deep wells; 2) the seismotectonic setting, that is based exclusively on the correlation between inferred structural features and the location of late aftershocks; and 3) the inconsistency of the proposed seismogenic sources with the elevation changes caused by the sequence. All these points compromise the Carannante et al.'s interpretation and, as a consequence, previously proposed seismotectonic models are still valid.

Self-organized criticality in complex systems: Applicability to the interoccurrent and recurrent statistical behavior of earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, Sergey G.

The concept of self-organized criticality is associated with scale-invariant, fractal behavior; this concept is also applicable to earthquake systems. It is known that the interoccurrent frequency-size distribution of earthquakes in a region is scale-invariant and obeys the Gutenberg-Richter power-law dependence. Also, the interoccurrent time-interval distribution is known to obey Poissonian statistics excluding aftershocks. However, to estimate the hazard risk for a region it is necessary to know also the recurrent behavior of earthquakes at a given point on a fault. This behavior has been investigated in the literature, however, major questions remain unresolved. The reason is the small number of earthquakes in observed sequences. To overcome this difficulty this research utilizes numerical simulations of a slider-block model and a sand-pile model. Also, experimental observations of creep events on the creeping section of the San Andreas fault are processed and sequences up to 100 events are studied. Then the recurrent behavior of earthquakes at a given point on a fault or at a given fault is investigated. It is shown that both the recurrent frequency-size and the time-interval behaviors of earthquakes obey the Weibull distribution.

The 2013 Crete (Hellenic Arc) Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakostas, V. G.; Papadimitriou, E. E.; Vallianatos, F.

2014-12-01

The western Hellenic Arc is a well known place of active interplate deformation, where the convergence motion vector is perpendicular to the subduction front. On 12 October 2013 this area was hit by a strong (Mw=6.7) earthquake, occurred on a thrust fault onto the coupled part of the overriding and descending plates, with the compression axis being oriented in the direction of plate convergence. This was the first strong (M>6.0) event to have occurred onto this segment of the descending slab, which has accommodated the largest (M8.3) known earthquake in the Mediterranean area, and to be recorded by the Hellenic Unified Seismological Network (HUSN) that has been considerably improved in the last five years. The first 2-days relocated seismicity shows activation of the upper part of the descending slab, downdip of the plate interface and forming a relatively narrow aftershock area on map view. The less densely visited by aftershocks area, where the main shock is also encompassed, is considered as the high-slip area along the downdip portion of the subducting plane. Dense concentration of the intraslab aftershocks are probably due to the increase of static stress generated by the main shock. A spectacular feature of the aftershock activity concerns the lateral extension of the slipped area, which appears very sharply defined. This provides evidence on localized coupling and aseismically creeping areas, explaining the low coupling ratio in the Hellenic Arc, as it derives from comparison between relative plate motion and seismic energy release. Elucidating the issue of how far the associated large-slip zone might be extended along the plate interface during the main rupture is crucial in assessing future earthquake hazards from subduction events in the study area. This research has been co-funded by the European Union (European Social Fund) and Greek national resources under the framework of the "THALES Program: SEISMO FEAR HELLARC" project.

Use of QuakeSim and UAVSAR for Earthquake Damage Mitigation and Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donnellan, A.; Parker, J. W.; Bawden, G.; Hensley, S.

2009-01-01

Spaceborne, airborne, and modeling and simulation techniques are being applied to earthquake risk assessment and response for mitigation from this natural disaster. QuakeSim is a web-based portal for modeling interseismic strain accumulation using paleoseismic and crustal deformation data. The models are used for understanding strain accumulation and release from earthquakes as well as stress transfer to neighboring faults. Simulations of the fault system can be used for understanding the likelihood and patterns of earthquakes as well as the likelihood of large aftershocks from events. UAVSAR is an airborne L-band InSAR system for collecting crustal deformation data. QuakeSim, UAVSAR, and DESDynI (following launch) can be used for monitoring earthquakes, the associated rupture and damage, and postseismic motions for prediction of aftershock locations.

Conditional Probabilities of Large Earthquake Sequences in California from the Physics-based Rupture Simulator RSQSim

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilchrist, J. J.; Jordan, T. H.; Shaw, B. E.; Milner, K. R.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Dieterich, J. H.

2017-12-01

Within the SCEC Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM), we are developing physics-based forecasting models for earthquake ruptures in California. We employ the 3D boundary element code RSQSim (Rate-State Earthquake Simulator of Dieterich & Richards-Dinger, 2010) to generate synthetic catalogs with tens of millions of events that span up to a million years each. This code models rupture nucleation by rate- and state-dependent friction and Coulomb stress transfer in complex, fully interacting fault systems. The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault and deformation models are used to specify the fault geometry and long-term slip rates. We have employed the Blue Waters supercomputer to generate long catalogs of simulated California seismicity from which we calculate the forecasting statistics for large events. We have performed probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with RSQSim catalogs that were calibrated with system-wide parameters and found a remarkably good agreement with UCERF3 (Milner et al., this meeting). We build on this analysis, comparing the conditional probabilities of sequences of large events from RSQSim and UCERF3. In making these comparisons, we consider the epistemic uncertainties associated with the RSQSim parameters (e.g., rate- and state-frictional parameters), as well as the effects of model-tuning (e.g., adjusting the RSQSim parameters to match UCERF3 recurrence rates). The comparisons illustrate how physics-based rupture simulators might assist forecasters in understanding the short-term hazards of large aftershocks and multi-event sequences associated with complex, multi-fault ruptures.

Compressive sensing of frequency-dependent seismic radiation from subduction zone megathrust ruptures

PubMed Central

Yao, Huajian; Shearer, Peter M.; Gerstoft, Peter

2013-01-01

Megathrust earthquakes rupture a broad zone of the subducting plate interface in both along-strike and along-dip directions. The along-dip rupture characteristics of megathrust events, e.g., their slip and energy radiation distribution, reflect depth-varying frictional properties of the slab interface. Here, we report high-resolution frequency-dependent seismic radiation of the four largest megathrust earthquakes in the past 10 y using a compressive-sensing (sparse source recovery) technique, resolving generally low-frequency radiation closer to the trench at shallower depths and high-frequency radiation farther from the trench at greater depths. Together with coseismic slip models and early aftershock locations, our results suggest depth-varying frictional properties at the subducting plate interfaces. The shallower portion of the slab interface (above ∼15 km) is frictionally stable or conditionally stable and is the source region for tsunami earthquakes with large coseismic slip, deficient high-frequency radiation, and few early aftershocks. The slab interface at intermediate depths (∼15–35 km) is the main unstable seismogenic zone for the nucleation of megathrust quakes, typically with large coseismic slip, abundant early aftershocks, and intermediate- to high-frequency radiation. The deeper portion of the slab interface (∼35–45 km) is seismically unstable, however with small coseismic slip, dominant high-frequency radiation, and relatively fewer aftershocks.

Aftershock patterns and main shock faulting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mendoza, C.; Hartzell, S.H.

1988-01-01

We have compared aftershock patterns following several moderate to large earthquakes with the corresponding distributions of coseismic slip obtained from previous analyses of the recorded strong ground motion and teleseismic waveforms. Our results are consistent with a hypothesis of aftershock occurrence that requires a secondary redistribution of stress following primary failure on the earthquake fault. Aftershocks followng earthquakes examined in this study occur mostly outside of or near the edges of the source areas indicated by the patterns of main shock slip. The spatial distribution of aftershocks reflects either a continuation of slip in the outer regions of the areas of maximum coseismic displacement or the activation of subsidiary faults within the volume surrounding the boundaries of main shock rupture. -from Authors

The influence of one earthquake on another

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilb, Deborah Lyman

1999-12-01

Part one of my dissertation examines the initiation of earthquake rupture. We study the initial subevent (ISE) of the Mw 6.7 1994 Northridge, California earthquake to distinguish between two end-member hypotheses of an organized and predictable earthquake rupture initiation process or, alternatively, a random process. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both end-member models, and do not allow us to distinguish between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical nearby small earthquakes (i.e., dynamic ruptures). The second part of my dissertation examines aftershocks of the M 7.1 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake to determine if theoretical models of static Coulomb stress changes correctly predict the fault plane geometries and slip directions of Loma Prieta aftershocks. Our work shows individual aftershock mechanisms cannot be successfully predicted because a similar degree of predictability can be obtained using a randomized catalogue. This result is probably a function of combined errors in the models of mainshock slip distribution, background stress field, and aftershock locations. In the final part of my dissertation, we test the idea that earthquake triggering occurs when properties of a fault and/or its loading are modified by Coulomb failure stress changes that may be transient and oscillatory (i.e., dynamic) or permanent (i.e., static). We propose a triggering threshold failure stress change exists, above which the earthquake nucleation process begins although failure need not occur instantaneously. We test these ideas using data from the 1992 M 7.4 Landers earthquake and its aftershocks. Stress changes can be categorized as either dynamic (generated during the passage of seismic waves), static (associated with permanent fault offsets caused by fault slip) or complete (including both static and dynamic). We examine theoretically calculated Coulomb failure stress changes for the static (DeltaCFS) and complete (DeltaCFS(t)) cases, and statistically test for a correlation with spatially varying post-Landers seismicity rate changes. We find that directivity, which was required to model waveforms of the 1992 Landers earthquake, creates an asymmetry in mapped peak DeltaCFS(t). A similar asymmetry is apparent in the seismicity rate change map but not in the DeltaCFS map. Statistical analyses show that peak DeltaCFS(t) correlates as well or better with seismicity rate change as DeltaCFS, and qualitatively peak DeltaCFS(t) is the preferred model. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Listening to the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peng, Zhigang; Aiken, Chastity; Kilb, Debi; Shelly, David R.; Enescu, Bogdan

2012-01-01

The magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake on 11 March 2011 is the largest earthquake to date in Japan’s modern history and is ranked as the fourth largest earthquake in the world since 1900. This earthquake occurred within the northeast Japan subduction zone (Figure 1), where the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the Okhotsk plate at rate of ∼8–9 cm/yr (DeMets et al. 2010). This type of extremely large earthquake within a subduction zone is generally termed a “megathrust” earthquake. Strong shaking from this magnitude 9 earthquake engulfed the entire Japanese Islands, reaching a maximum acceleration ∼3 times that of gravity (3 g). Two days prior to the main event, a foreshock sequence occurred, including one earthquake of magnitude 7.2. Following the main event, numerous aftershocks occurred around the main slip region; the largest of these was magnitude 7.9. The entire foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks sequence was well recorded by thousands of sensitive seismometers and geodetic instruments across Japan, resulting in the best-recorded megathrust earthquake in history. This devastating earthquake resulted in significant damage and high death tolls caused primarily by the associated large tsunami. This tsunami reached heights of more than 30 m, and inundation propagated inland more than 5 km from the Pacific coast, which also caused a nuclear crisis that is still affecting people’s lives in certain regions of Japan.

Transpressional Structure in Chiayi Area, Taiwan: Insight from the 2017 ML5.1 Zhongpu Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, K. F.; Huang, H. H.

2017-12-01

The Chiayi area is located at the deformation front of active fold-and-thrust belt of Taiwan, where the fault system is composed primarily of a series of north-south-trending east-dipping thrusts and also an east-west-trending strike-slip fault (Meishan Fault, MSF) with right-lateral faulting. On 24th May 2017, a ML 5.1 earthquake occurred at Zhongpu, Chiayi (namely Zhongpu earthquake), however, shows a left-lateral strike-slip faulting distinct from the known structure in the area. The distribution of the reported aftershocks is difficult to distinguish the actual fault plane. To determine the fault plane of this abnormal earthquake and investigate its structural relationships to the regional tectonics, we relocate the earthquake sequence and estimate the rupture directivity of the mainshock by using the 3-D double difference hypocenter relocation method (Lin, 2013) and the 3-D directivity moment tensor inversion method (DMT, Huang et al., 2017, submitted). The DMT results show that the rupture directivity of the Zhongpu earthquake is west- and down-ward along the east-west fault plane, which also agrees with east-west-distributed aftershocks after relocation. As a result, the Zhongpu earthquake reveals an undiscovered east-west-trending structure which is sub-parallel with the MSF but with opposite faulting direction, exhibiting a complex transpressional tectonic regime in the Chiayi area.

Constraints on upper plate deformation in the Nicaraguan subduction zone from earthquake relocation and directivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, S. W.; Warren, L. M.; Fischer, K. M.; Abers, G. A.; Strauch, W.; Protti, J. M.; Gonzalez, V.

2010-03-01

In the Nicaraguan segment of the Central American subduction zone, bookshelf faulting has been proposed as the dominant style of Caribbean plate deformation in response to oblique subduction of the Cocos plate. A key element of this model is left-lateral motion on arc-normal strike-slip faults. On 3 August 2005, a Mw 6.3 earthquake and its extensive foreshock and aftershock sequence occurred near Ometepe Island in Lake Nicaragua. To determine the fault plane that ruptured in the main shock, we relocated main shock, foreshock, and aftershock hypocenters and analyzed main shock source directivity using waveforms from the TUCAN Broadband Seismic Experiment. The relocation analysis was carried out by applying the hypoDD double-difference method to P and S onset times and differential traveltimes for event pairs determined by waveform cross correlation. The relocated hypocenters define a roughly vertical plane of seismicity with an N60°E strike. This plane aligns with one of the two nodal planes of the main shock source mechanism. The directivity analysis was based on waveforms from 16 TUCAN stations and indicates that rupture on the N60°E striking main shock nodal plane provides the best fit to the data. The relocation and directivity analyses identify the N60°E vertical nodal plane as the main shock fault plane, consistent with the style of faulting required by the bookshelf model. Relocated hypocenters also define a second fault plane that lies to the south of the main shock fault plane with a strike of N350°E-N355°E. This fault plane became seismically active 5 h after the main shock, suggesting the influence of stresses transferred from the main shock fault plane. The August 2005 earthquake sequence was preceded by a small eruption of a nearby volcano, Concepción, on 28 July 2005. However, the local seismicity does not provide evidence for earthquake triggering of the eruption or eruption triggering of the main shock through crustal stress transfer.

An experimental approach to non - extensive statistical physics and Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) modeling. The case of triaxially deformed sandstones using acoustic emissions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavrianaki, K.; Vallianatos, F.; Sammonds, P. R.; Ross, G. J.

2014-12-01

Fracturing is the most prevalent deformation mechanism in rocks deformed in the laboratory under simulated upper crustal conditions. Fracturing produces acoustic emissions (AE) at the laboratory scale and earthquakes on a crustal scale. The AE technique provides a means to analyse microcracking activity inside the rock volume and since experiments can be performed under confining pressure to simulate depth of burial, AE can be used as a proxy for natural processes such as earthquakes. Experimental rock deformation provides us with several ways to investigate time-dependent brittle deformation. Two main types of experiments can be distinguished: (1) "constant strain rate" experiments in which stress varies as a result of deformation, and (2) "creep" experiments in which deformation and deformation rate vary over time as a result of an imposed constant stress. We conducted constant strain rate experiments on air-dried Darley Dale sandstone samples in a variety of confining pressures (30MPa, 50MPa, 80MPa) and in water saturated samples with 20 MPa initial pore fluid pressure. The results from these experiments used to determine the initial loading in the creep experiments. Non-extensive statistical physics approach was applied to the AE data in order to investigate the spatio-temporal pattern of cracks close to failure. A more detailed study was performed for the data from the creep experiments. When axial stress is plotted against time we obtain the trimodal creep curve. Calculation of Tsallis entropic index q is performed to each stage of the curve and the results are compared with the ones from the constant strain rate experiments. The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model (ETAS) is also applied to each stage of the creep curve and the ETAS parameters are calculated. We investigate whether these parameters are constant across all stages of the curve, or whether there are interesting patterns of variation. This research has been co-funded by the European Union (European Social Fund) and Greek national resources under the framework of the "THALES Program: SEISMO FEAR HELLARC" project of the "Education & Lifelong Learning" Operational Programme.

Tsunami waves generated by dynamically triggered aftershocks of the 2010 Haiti earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ten Brink, U. S.; Wei, Y.; Fan, W.; Miller, N. C.; Granja, J. L.

2017-12-01

Dynamically-triggered aftershocks, thought to be set off by the passage of surface waves, are currently not considered in tsunami warnings, yet may produce enough seafloor deformation to generate tsunamis on their own, as judged from new findings about the January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake tsunami in the Caribbean Sea. This tsunami followed the Mw7.0 Haiti mainshock, which resulted from a complex rupture along the north shore of Tiburon Peninsula, not beneath the Caribbean Sea. The mainshock, moreover, had a mixed strike-slip and thrust focal mechanism. There were no recorded aftershocks in the Caribbean Sea, only small coastal landslides and rock falls on the south shore of Tiburon Peninsula. Nevertheless, a tsunami was recorded on deep-sea DART buoy 42407 south of the Dominican Republic and on the Santo Domingo tide gauge, and run-ups of ≤3 m were observed along a 90-km-long stretch of the SE Haiti coast. Three dynamically-triggered aftershocks south of Haiti have been recently identified within the coda of the mainshock (<200 s) by analyzing P wave arrivals recorded by dense seismic arrays, parsing the arrivals into 20-s-long stacks, and back-projecting the arrivals to the vicinity of the main shock (50-300 km). Two of the aftershocks, coming 20-40 s and 40-60 s after the mainshock, plot along NW-SE-trending submarine ridges in the Caribbean Sea south of Haiti. The third event, 120-140 s was located along the steep eastern slope of Bahoruco Peninsula, which is delineated by a normal fault. Forward tsunami models show that the arrival times of the DART buoy and tide gauge times are best fit by the earliest of the three aftershocks, with a Caribbean source 60 km SW of the mainshock rupture zone. Preliminary inversion of the DART buoy time series for fault locations and orientations confirms the location of the first source, but requires an additional unidentified source closer to shore 40 km SW of the mainshock rupture zone. This overall agreement between earthquake and tsunami analyses suggests that land-based earthquake ruptures and/or non-thrust main shocks can generate tsunamis by means of dynamically-triggered aftershocks. It also provides an independent verification to the back-projection seismic method, and it indicates that the active NE-SW shortening of Hispaniola extends southward into the Caribbean Sea.

Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucile M.

1994-01-01

The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.

Early warning system for aftershocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakun, W.H.; Fischer, F.G.; Jensen, E.G.; VanSchaack, J.

1994-01-01

A prototype early warning system to provide San Francisco and Oakland, California a few tens-of-seconds warning of incoming strong ground shaking from already-occurred M ≧ 3.7 aftershocks of the magnitude 7.1 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was operational on 28 October 1989. The prototype system consisted of four components: ground motion sensors in the epicentral area, a central receiver, a radio repeater, and radio receivers. One of the radio receivers was deployed at the California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS) headquarters at the damaged Cypress Street section of the I-880 freeway in Oakland, California on 28 October 1989 and provided about 20 sec of warning before shaking from the M 4.5 Loma Prieta aftershock that occurred on 2 November 1989 at 0550 UTC. In its first 6 months of operation, the system generated triggers for all 12 M > 3.7 aftershocks for which trigger documentation is preserved, did not trigger on any M ≦ 3.6 aftershocks, and produced one false trigger as a result of a now-corrected single point of failure design flaw. Because the prototype system demonstrated that potentially useful warnings of strong shaking from aftershocks are feasible, the USGS has completed a portable early warning system for aftershocks that can be deployed anywhere.

Comment on "Localized water reverberation phases and its impact on back-projection images" by Yue et al. [2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, W.; Shearer, P. M.

2017-12-01

Fan and Shearer [2016] analyzed the 2012 Mw 7.2 Sumatra earthquake and reported that the earthquake dynamically triggered early aftershock/aftershocks 150 km away from the mainshock and 50 s later. The early aftershock/aftershocks were detected with teleseismic P-wave back-projection, coincided with passing surface waves, and showed observable seismic waveforms in a wide frequency range (0.02—5 Hz). Recently, however, Yue et al. [2017] interpreted these coda arrivals as water reverberations from the mainshock, based mostly on EGF analysis of a nearby M6 earthquake and a water-phase synthetic test. Here, we show detailed back-projection and waveform analysis of three M6 earthquakes within 100km of the Mw 7.2 earthquake, including the EGF event analyzed in Yue et al. [2017]. In addition, we examine the waveforms of three M5.5 reverse faulting earthquakes close to our detected early aftershock landward of the trench. Our results show that the coda energy in question is more likely caused by a separate earthquake near the trench than by a mainshock water reverberation phase, thus supporting our earlier conclusion that the detected coherent radiators are likely to be dynamically triggered early aftershock/aftershocks.

Earthquake forecasting during the complex Amatrice-Norcia seismic sequence

PubMed Central

Marzocchi, Warner; Taroni, Matteo; Falcone, Giuseppe

2017-01-01

Earthquake forecasting is the ultimate challenge for seismologists, because it condenses the scientific knowledge about the earthquake occurrence process, and it is an essential component of any sound risk mitigation planning. It is commonly assumed that, in the short term, trustworthy earthquake forecasts are possible only for typical aftershock sequences, where the largest shock is followed by many smaller earthquakes that decay with time according to the Omori power law. We show that the current Italian operational earthquake forecasting system issued statistically reliable and skillful space-time-magnitude forecasts of the largest earthquakes during the complex 2016–2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, which is characterized by several bursts of seismicity and a significant deviation from the Omori law. This capability to deliver statistically reliable forecasts is an essential component of any program to assist public decision-makers and citizens in the challenging risk management of complex seismic sequences. PMID:28924610

Earthquake forecasting during the complex Amatrice-Norcia seismic sequence.

PubMed

Marzocchi, Warner; Taroni, Matteo; Falcone, Giuseppe

2017-09-01

Earthquake forecasting is the ultimate challenge for seismologists, because it condenses the scientific knowledge about the earthquake occurrence process, and it is an essential component of any sound risk mitigation planning. It is commonly assumed that, in the short term, trustworthy earthquake forecasts are possible only for typical aftershock sequences, where the largest shock is followed by many smaller earthquakes that decay with time according to the Omori power law. We show that the current Italian operational earthquake forecasting system issued statistically reliable and skillful space-time-magnitude forecasts of the largest earthquakes during the complex 2016-2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, which is characterized by several bursts of seismicity and a significant deviation from the Omori law. This capability to deliver statistically reliable forecasts is an essential component of any program to assist public decision-makers and citizens in the challenging risk management of complex seismic sequences.

Coseismic and Early Post-Seismic Slip Distributions of the 2012 Emilia (Northern Italy) Seismic Sequence: New Insights in the Faults Activation and Resulting Stress Changes on Adjacent Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheloni, D.; Giuliani, R.; D'Agostino, N.; Mattone, M.; Bonano, M.; Fornaro, G.; Lanari, R.; Reale, D.

2015-12-01

The 2012 Emilia sequence (main shocks Mw 6.1 May 20 and Mw 5.9 May 29) ruptured two thrust segments of a ~E-W trending fault system of the buried Ferrara Arc, along a portion of the compressional system of the Apennines that had remained silent during past centuries. Here we use the rupture geometry constrained by the aftershocks and new geodetic data (levelling, InSAR and GPS measurements) to estimate an improved coseismic slip distribution of the two main events. In addition, we use post-seismic displacements, described and analyzed here for the first time, to infer a brand new post-seismic slip distribution of the May 29 event in terms of afterslip on the same coseismic plane. In particular, in this study we use a catalog of precisely relocated aftershocks to explore the different proposed geometries of the proposed thrust segments that have been published so far and estimate the coseismic and post-seismic slip distributions of the ruptured planes responsible for the two main seismic events from a joint inversion of the geodetic data.Joint inversion results revealed that the two earthquakes ruptured two distinct planar thrust faults, characterized by single main coseismic patches located around the centre of the rupture planes, in agreement with the seismological and geological information pointing out the Ferrara and the Mirandola thrust faults, as the causative structures of the May 20 and May 29 main shocks respectively.The preferred post-seismic slip distribution related to the 29 May event, yielded to a main patch of afterslip (equivalent to a Mw 5.6 event) located westward and up-dip of the main coseismic patch, suggesting that afterslip was triggered at the edges of the coseismic asperity. We then use these co- and post-seismic slip distribution models to calculate the stress changes on adjacent fault.

Double-difference Relocation of the Aftershocks of the Tecomán, Colima, Mexico Earthquake of 22 January 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, Vanessa; Stock, Joann; Ramírez Vázquez, Carlos Ariel; Reyes-Dávila, Gabriel

2011-08-01

On 22 January 2003, the M w = 7.6 Tecomán earthquake struck offshore of the state of Colima, Mexico, near the diffuse triple junction between the Cocos, Rivera, and North American plates. Three-hundred and fifty aftershocks of the Tecomán earthquake with magnitudes between 2.6 and 5.8, each recorded by at least 7 stations, are relocated using the double difference method. Initial locations are determined using P and S readings from the Red Sismológica Telemétrica del Estado de Colima (RESCO) and a 1-D velocity model. Because only eight RESCO stations were operating immediately following the Tecomán earthquake, uncertainties in the initial locations and depths are fairly large, with average uncertainties of 8.0 km in depth and 1.4 km in the north-south and east-west directions. Events occurring between 24 January and 31 January were located using not only RESCO phase readings but also additional P and S readings from 11 temporary stations. Average uncertainties decrease to 0.8 km in depth, 0.3 km in the east-west direction, and 0.7 km in the north-south direction for events occurring while the temporary stations were deployed. While some preliminary studies of the early aftershocks suggested that they were dominated by shallow events above the plate interface, our results place the majority of aftershocks along the plate interface, for a slab dipping between approximately 20° and 30°. This is consistent with the slab positions inferred from geodetic studies. We do see some upper plate aftershocks that may correspond to forearc fault zones, and faults inland in the upper plate, particularly among events occurring more than 3 months after the mainshock.

Crustal structure and fault geometry of the 2010 Haiti earthquake from temporary seismometer deployments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Douilly, Roby; Haase, Jennifer S.; Ellsworth, William L.; Bouin, Marie‐Paule; Calais, Eric; Symithe, Steeve J.; Armbruster, John G.; Mercier de Lépinay, Bernard; Deschamps, Anne; Mildor, Saint‐Louis; Meremonte, Mark E.; Hough, Susan E.

2013-01-01

Haiti has been the locus of a number of large and damaging historical earthquakes. The recent 12 January 2010 Mw 7.0 earthquake affected cities that were largely unprepared, which resulted in tremendous losses. It was initially assumed that the earthquake ruptured the Enriquillo Plantain Garden fault (EPGF), a major active structure in southern Haiti, known from geodetic measurements and its geomorphic expression to be capable of producing M 7 or larger earthquakes. Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data, however, showed that the event ruptured a previously unmapped fault, the Léogâne fault, a north‐dipping oblique transpressional fault located immediately north of the EPGF. Following the earthquake, several groups installed temporary seismic stations to record aftershocks, including ocean‐bottom seismometers on either side of the EPGF. We use data from the complete set of stations deployed after the event, on land and offshore, to relocate all aftershocks from 10 February to 24 June 2010, determine a 1D regional crustal velocity model, and calculate focal mechanisms. The aftershock locations from the combined dataset clearly delineate the Léogâne fault, with a geometry close to that inferred from geodetic data. Its strike and dip closely agree with the global centroid moment tensor solution of the mainshock but with a steeper dip than inferred from previous finite fault inversions. The aftershocks also delineate a structure with shallower southward dip offshore and to the west of the rupture zone, which could indicate triggered seismicity on the offshore Trois Baies reverse fault. We use first‐motion focal mechanisms to clarify the relationship of the fault geometry to the triggered aftershocks.

Earthquake statistics, spatiotemporal distribution of foci and source mechanisms as a key to understanding of causes leading to the West Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake swarms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horalek, Josef; Jakoubkova, Hana

2017-04-01

The origin of earthquake swarms is still unclear. The swarms typically occur at the plate margins but also in intracontinental areas. West Bohemia-Vogtland represents one of the most active intraplate earthquake-swarm areas in Europe. It is characterised by a frequent reoccurrence of ML < 4.0 swarms and by high activity of crustal fluids. The Nový Kostel focal zone (NK) dominates the recent seismicity of the whole region. There were swarms in 1997, 2000, 2008 and 20011 followed by reactivation in 2013 which forming a focal belt of about 15 x 6 km, focal depths vary from 6 to 15 km. An exceptional non-swarm activity (mainshock-aftershock sequences) up to magnitudes ML = 4.5, stroke the region in May to August 2014, the events were also located in the NK swarm-focal belt. We analysed geometry of the NK focal zone applying the double-difference method to seismicity in the period 1997 - 2014. The swarms are located close to each other at depths between 6 and 13 km, the 2014 maishock-aftershock sequences among them. The 2000 and 2008 swarms were located on the same portion of the NK fault, similarly the swarms of 1997, 2011 and 2013 also occurred on the same fault segment. Other fault segment hosted three mainshock-aftershock sequences of 2014. The individual swarms differ considerably in their evolution, mainly in the rate of the seismic-moment release and foci migration. The frequency-magnitude distributions of all the swarms show bimodal-like character: the most events obey the b-value = 1.0 distribution, however, a group of the largest events ( ML > 2.8) depart significantly from it. Furthermore, we disclose that all the ML > 2.8 swarm events, which occurred in the given time span, are located in a few dense clusters. It implies that the most of seismic energy in the individual swarms has been released in step by step rupturing of one or a few asperities. The source mechanisms have been retrieved in the full moment-tensor description (MT). The mechanism patters of the individual swarms indicate their complexity. All the swarms exhibit both oblique-normal and oblique-thrust faulting but the former prevails. We found a several families of mechanisms, which fit well geometry of respective fault segments being determined by means of the double-difference location. MTs of the most analysed events signify pure shears except for events the second phase of the 1997 swarm the MTs of which indicate significant amount of non-DC components. The existing results do not allow us to explain properly an origin of earthquake swarms. Nevertheless, we infer that the individual earthquake swarms in West Bohemia-Vogtland are mixture of the mainshock-aftershock sequences which correspond to step by step rupturing of one or a few asperities. The swarms occur on short fault segments with heterogeneous stress and strength, which may be affected by crustal fluids. Pressurized fluids may reduce normal component of the tectonic stress and lower friction. Thus, critically loaded and favourably oriented faults are brought to failure and the swarm activity is driven by the differential local stress.

Physics-Based and Statistical Forecasting in Slowly Stressed Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segou, M.; Deschamps, A.

2013-12-01

We perform a retrospective forecasting experiment between 1995-2012, comparing the predictive power of physics-based and statistical models in Corinth Gulf (Central Greece), which is the fastest continental rift in the world with extension rates 11-15 mm/yr, but also at least three times lower than the motion accommodated by the San Andreas Fault System (~40 mm/yr). The seismicity of the western Corinth gulf has been characterized by significant historical events (1817 M6.6, 1861 M6.7, 1889 M7.0) whereas the modern instrumental catalog (post-1964) reveals one major event, the 1995 Aigio M6.4 (15/06/1995) together with several periods of increased microseismic activity, usually lasting few months and possibly related with fluid diffusion. We examine six predictive models, three based on the combination of Coulomb stress changes and rate-and-state theory (CRS), two epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models and one hybrid CRS-ETAS (h-ETAS) model. We investigate whether the above forecast models can adequately describe the episodic swarm activity within the gulf. Even though Corinth gulf has been studied extensively in the past there is still today a debate whether earthquake activity is related with the existence of either a shallow dipping structure or steeply dipping normal faults. In the light of the above statement, two CRS realization are based on resolving Coulomb stress changes on specified receiver faults, expressing the aforementioned structural models, whereas the third CRS model uses optimally-oriented for failure planes. In our CRS implementation we account for stress changes following all major ruptures within our testing phase with M greater than 4.5. We also estimate fault constitutive parameters from modeling the response to major earthquakes at the vicinity of the gulf (Ασ=0.2, stressing rate 0.02 bar/yr). The ETAS parameters are taken as the maximum likelihood estimates derived from stochastic declustering of the modern seismicity catalog with minimum triggering magnitude M2.5. We implement likelihood tests to evaluate our forecasts for their spatial consistency and for the total amount of predicted versus observed events with M greater than 3.0 in 10-day time intervals in two distinct evaluation phases. The first evaluation phase focuses on the Aigio 1995 aftershock sequence (15/06/1995, M6.4) whereas the second covers the period between September 2006-May 2007, characterized for the intense swarm activity.We find that (1) geology based CRS models are preferred over optimally oriented planes (2) CRS models are consistent forecasters (60-70%) of transient seismicity, having in most cases comparable performance with ETAS models (3) swarms are not triggered by static stress changes of preceding local events.

The southeastern Illinois earthquake of 10 June 1987: the later aftershocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langer, C.J.; Bollinger, G.A.

1991-01-01

The 10 June 1987 southeastern Illinois earthquake (mbLg=5.2) was located about 200 km east of St Louis, Missouri, caused minor damage in the epicentral area, had a contiguous felt area of about 433 000 km2, and had a total felt area over 1 million km2. Within 47 hours after the main shock, a 15-station aftershock monitoring network (later expanded to 21 instruments) was installed that recorded more than 100 aftershocks in the folllowing 4-day period. Results from the 56 aftershocks that were well located indicate a compact, cylindrically shaped aftershock volume about 1.7 km long, 0.8 km wide, and with a vertical distribution between about 9 and 12 km in depth. Composite focal mechanism solutions of the aftershocks suggest that the predominant mode of faulting is reverse slip, but some strike-slip type motion occurred similar to the mechanism for the main shock as determined from teleseismic data. The maximum principal compressive stress (P axes) is oriented E-ESE and is subhorizontal in plunge. -from Authors

Improving the resolution of the 2010 Haiti earthquake fault geometry using temporary seismometer deployments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douilly, R.; Haase, J. S.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Bouin, M.; Calais, E.; Armbruster, J. G.; Mercier De Lepinay, B. F.; Deschamps, A.; Saint Louis, M.; Meremonte, M. E.; Hough, S. E.

2011-12-01

Haiti has several active faults that are capable of producing large earthquakes such as the 2010 Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake. This earthquake was not unexpected, given geodetic measurements showing strain accumulation on the Enriquillo Plantain Garden Fault Zone, the major fault system in southern Haiti (Manaker et al. 2008). GPS and INSAR data (Calais et al., 2010) show, however, that this rupture occurred on the previously unmapped Léogâne fault, a 60° north dipping oblique blind thrust located immediately north of the Enriquillo Fault. Following the earthquake, several groups installed temporary seismic stations to record aftershocks. Natural Resources Canada installed three broadband seismic stations, Géoazur installed 21 ocean bottom seismometers, L'Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris installed 5 broadband seismometers, and the United States Geological Survey deployed 17 short period and strong motion seismometers in and around Port-au-Prince. We use data from this complete set of stations, along with data from permanent regional stations, to relocate all of the events from March 17 to June 24, to determine the regional one-dimensional crustal structure and determine focal mechanisms. The aftershock locations from the combined data set clearly delineate the Léogâne fault. The strike and dip closely agrees with that of the global centroid moment tensor solution, but appears to be more steeply dipping than the finite fault inversions. The aftershocks also delineate a flat structure on the west side of the rupture zone and may indicate triggered seismicity on the Trois Baies fault, although the depths of these events are not as well constrained. There is no clear evidence for aftershocks on the other rupture segments inferred in the Hayes et al. (2010) mainshock rupture model. There is a cluster of aftershocks in the hanging wall near the western patch of high slip identified by Calais et al. (2010) and Meng et al. (2011), or central patch in the Hayes et al. (2010) model. We use first-motion focal mechanism solutions to clarify the relationship of the fault geometry to the mechanisms of the larger events.

Avalanche correlations in the martensitic transition of a Cu-Zn-Al shape memory alloy: analysis of acoustic emission and calorimetry.

PubMed

Baró, Jordi; Martín-Olalla, José-María; Romero, Francisco Javier; Gallardo, María Carmen; Salje, Ekhard K H; Vives, Eduard; Planes, Antoni

2014-03-26

The existence of temporal correlations during the intermittent dynamics of a thermally driven structural phase transition is studied in a Cu-Zn-Al alloy. The sequence of avalanches is observed by means of two techniques: acoustic emission and high sensitivity calorimetry. Both methods reveal the existence of event clustering in a way that is equivalent to the Omori correlations between aftershocks in earthquakes as are commonly used in seismology.

Time-varying loss forecast for an earthquake scenario in Basel, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrmann, Marcus; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Wiemer, Stefan

2014-05-01

When an unexpected earthquake occurs, people suddenly want advice on how to cope with the situation. The 2009 L'Aquila quake highlighted the significance of public communication and pushed the usage of scientific methods to drive alternative risk mitigation strategies. For instance, van Stiphout et al. (2010) suggested a new approach for objective evacuation decisions on short-term: probabilistic risk forecasting combined with cost-benefit analysis. In the present work, we apply this approach to an earthquake sequence that simulated a repeat of the 1356 Basel earthquake, one of the most damaging events in Central Europe. A recent development to benefit society in case of an earthquake are probabilistic forecasts of the aftershock occurrence. But seismic risk delivers a more direct expression of the socio-economic impact. To forecast the seismic risk on short-term, we translate aftershock probabilities to time-varying seismic hazard and combine this with time-invariant loss estimation. Compared with van Stiphout et al. (2010), we use an advanced aftershock forecasting model and detailed settlement data to allow us spatial forecasts and settlement-specific decision-making. We quantify the risk forecast probabilistically in terms of human loss. For instance one minute after the M6.6 mainshock, the probability for an individual to die within the next 24 hours is 41 000 times higher than the long-term average; but the absolute value remains at minor 0.04 %. The final cost-benefit analysis adds value beyond a pure statistical approach: it provides objective statements that may justify evacuations. To deliver supportive information in a simple form, we propose a warning approach in terms of alarm levels. Our results do not justify evacuations prior to the M6.6 mainshock, but in certain districts afterwards. The ability to forecast the short-term seismic risk at any time-and with sufficient data anywhere-is the first step of personal decision-making and raising risk awareness among the public. Reference Van Stiphout, T., S. Wiemer, and W. Marzocchi (2010). 'Are short-term evacuations warranted? Case of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake'. In: Geophysical Research Letters 37.6, pp. 1-5. url: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/ 2009GL042352/abstract.

What can we learn from the Wells, NV earthquake sequence about seismic hazard in the intermountain west?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; Pankow, K.L.; Biasi, G.P.; Meremonte, M.

2008-01-01

The February 21, 2008 Wells, NV earthquake (M 6) was felt throughout eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and western Utah. The town of Wells sustained significant damage to unreinforced masonry buildings. The earthquake occurred in a region of low seismic hazard with little seismicity, low geodetic strain rates, and few mapped faults. The peak horizontal ground acceleration predicted by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps is about 0.2 g at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, with the contributions coming mostly from the Ruby Mountain fault and background seismicity (M5-7.0). The hazard model predicts that the probability of occurrence of an M>6 event within 50 km of Wells is about 15% in 100 years. Although the earthquake was inside the USArray Transportable Array network, the nearest on-scale recordings of ground motions from the mainshock were too distant to estimate accelerations in town. The University of Nevada Reno, the University of Utah, and the U.S. Geological Survey deployed portable instruments to capture the ground motions from aftershocks of this rare normal-faulting event. Shaking from a M 4.7 aftershock recorded on portable instruments at distances less than 10 km exceeded 0.3 g, and sustained accelerations above 0.1 g lasted for about 5 seconds. For a magnitude 5 earthquake at 10 km distance the NGA equations predict median peak ground accelerations about 0.1 g. Ground motions from normal faulting earthquakes are poorly represented in the ground motion prediction equations. We compare portable and Transportable Array ground-motion recordings with prediction equations. Advanced National Seismic System stations in Utah recorded ground motions 250 km from the mainshock of about 2% g. The maximum ground motion recorded in Salt Lake City was in the center of the basin. We analyze the spatial variability of ground motions (rock vs. soil) and the influence of the Salt Lake Basin in modifying the ground motions. We then compare this data with the September 28, 2004 Parkfield aftershocks to contrast the differences between strike-slip and normal ground motions.

Site Effects Study In Athens (greece) Using The 7th September 1999 Earthquake Aftershock Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serpetsidaki, A.; Sokos, E.

On 7 September 1999 at 11:56:50 GMT, an earthquake of Mw=5.9 occurred at Athens capital of Greece. The epicenter was located in the Northwest area of Parnitha Moun- tain at 18km distance from the city centre. This earthquake was one of the most de- structive in Greece during the modern times. The intensity of the earthquake reached IX in the Northwest territories of the city and caused the death of 143 people and seri- ous structural damage in many buildings. On the 13th of September the Seismological Laboratory of Patras University, installed a seismic network of 30 stations in order to observe the evolution of the aftershock sequence. This temporary seismic network remained in the area of Attika for 50 days and recorded a significant part of the af- tershock sequence. In this paper we use the high quality recordings of this network to investigate the influence of the surface geology to the seismic motion, on sites within the epicentral area, which suffered the most during this earthquake. We applied the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratio method on noise and on earthquake records and the obtained results exhibit very good agreement. Finally we compare the results with the geological conditions of the study area and the damage distribution. Most of the obtained amplification levels were low with an exemption in the site of Ano Liosia were a significant amount of damage was observed and the results indicate that the earthquake motion was amplified four times. Based on the above we conclude that the damages in the city of Athens were due to source effects rather than site effects.

Complex spatiotemporal evolution of the 2008 Mw 4.9 Mogul earthquake swarm (Reno, Nevada): Interplay of fluid and faulting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruhl, C. J.; Abercrombie, R. E.; Smith, K. D.; Zaliapin, I.

2016-11-01

After approximately 2 months of swarm-like earthquakes in the Mogul neighborhood of west Reno, NV, seismicity rates and event magnitudes increased over several days culminating in an Mw 4.9 dextral strike-slip earthquake on 26 April 2008. Although very shallow, the Mw 4.9 main shock had a different sense of slip than locally mapped dip-slip surface faults. We relocate 7549 earthquakes, calculate 1082 focal mechanisms, and statistically cluster the relocated earthquake catalog to understand the character and interaction of active structures throughout the Mogul, NV earthquake sequence. Rapid temporary instrument deployment provides high-resolution coverage of microseismicity, enabling a detailed analysis of swarm behavior and faulting geometry. Relocations reveal an internally clustered sequence in which foreshocks evolved on multiple structures surrounding the eventual main shock rupture. The relocated seismicity defines a fault-fracture mesh and detailed fault structure from approximately 2-6 km depth on the previously unknown Mogul fault that may be an evolving incipient strike-slip fault zone. The seismicity volume expands before the main shock, consistent with pore pressure diffusion, and the aftershock volume is much larger than is typical for an Mw 4.9 earthquake. We group events into clusters using space-time-magnitude nearest-neighbor distances between events and develop a cluster criterion through randomization of the relocated catalog. Identified clusters are largely main shock-aftershock sequences, without evidence for migration, occurring within the diffuse background seismicity. The migration rate of the largest foreshock cluster and simultaneous background events is consistent with it having triggered, or having been triggered by, an aseismic slip event.

Centimeter-scale surface deformation caused by the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake sequence at the Carter farm site—Subsidiary structures with a quaternary history

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrison, Richard W.; Schindler, J. Stephen; Pavich, Milan J.; Horton, J. Wright; Carter, Mark W.

2016-08-25

Centimeter-scale ground-surface deformation was produced by the August 23, 2011, magnitude (M) 5.8 earthquake that occurred in Mineral, Virginia. Ground-surface deformation also resulted from the earthquake aftershock sequence. This deformation occurred along a linear northeast-trend near Pendleton, Virginia. It is approximately 10 kilometers (km) northeast of the M5.8 epicenter and near the northeastern periphery of the epicentral area as defined by aftershocks. The ground-surface deformation extends over a distance of approximately 1.4 km and consists of parallel, small-scale (a few centimeters (cm) in amplitude) linear ridges and swales. Individual ridge and swale features are discontinuous and vary in length across a zone that ranges from about 20 meters (m) to less than 5 m in width. At one location, three fence posts and adjoining rails were vertically misaligned. Approximately 5 cm of uplift on one post provides a maximum estimate of vertical change from pre-earthquake conditions along the ridge and swale features. There was no change in the alignment of fence posts, indicating that deformation was entirely vertical. A broad monoclinal flexure with approximately 1 m of relief was identified by transit survey across surface deformation at the Carter farm site. There, surface deformation overlies the Carter farm fault, which is a zone of brittle faulting and fracturing along quartz veins, striking N40°E and dipping approximately 75°SE. Brecciation and shearing along this fault is interpreted as Quaternary in age because it disrupts the modern B-soil horizon. However, deformation is confined to saprolitized schist of the Ordovician Quantico Formation and the lowermost portion of overlying residuum, and is absent in the uppermost residuum and colluvial layer at the ground surface. Because there is a lack of surface shearing and very low relief, landslide processes were not a causative mechanism for the surface deformation. Two possible tectonic models and one non-tectonic model are considered: (1) tectonic, monoclinal flexuring along the Carter farm fault, probably aseismic, (2) tectonic, monoclinal flexuring related to a shallow (1–3 km) cluster of aftershocks (M2 to M3) that occurred approximately 1 to 1.5 km to the east of Carter farm, and (3) non-tectonic, differential response to seismic shaking between more-rigid quartz veins and soft residuum-saprolite under vertical motions that were created by Rayleigh surface waves radiating away from the August 23, 2011, hypocenter and propagating along strike of the Carter farm fault. These processes are not considered mutually exclusive, and all three support brittle deformation on the Carter farm fault during the Quaternary. In addition, abandoned stream valleys and active stream piracy are consistent with long-term uplift in vicinity of the Carter farm fault.

Comparing the stress change characteristics and aftershock decay rate of the 2011 Mineral, VA, earthquake with similar earthquakes from a variety of tectonic settings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, L. S.; Montesi, L. G.; Sauber, J. M.; Watters, T. R.; Kim, W.; Martin, A. J.; Anderson, R.

2011-12-01

On August 23, 2011, the magnitude 5.8 Mineral, VA, earthquake rocked the U.S. national capital region (Washington, DC) drawing worldwide attention to the occurrence of intraplate earthquakes. Using regional Coulomb stress change, we evaluate to what extent slip on faults during the Mineral, VA, earthquake and its aftershocks may have increased stress on notable Cenozoic fault systems in the DC metropolitan area: the central Virginia seismic zone, the DC fault zone, and the Stafford fault system. Our Coulomb stress maps indicate that the transfer of stress from the Mineral, VA, mainshock was at least 500 times greater than that produced from the magnitude 3.4 Germantown, MD, earthquake that occurred northwest of DC on July 16, 2010. Overall, the Mineral, VA, earthquake appears to have loaded faults of optimum orientation in the DC metropolitan region, bringing them closer to failure. The distribution of aftershocks of the Mineral, VA, earthquake will be compared with Coulomb stress change maps. We further characterize the Mineral, VA, earthquake by comparing its aftershock decay rate with that of blind thrust earthquakes with similar magnitude, focal mechanism, and depth from a variety of tectonic settings. In particular, we compare aftershock decay relations of the Mineral, VA, earthquake with two well studied California reverse faulting events, the August 4, 1985 Kettleman Hills (Mw = 6.1) and October 1, 1987 Whittier Narrow (Mw = 5.9) earthquakes. Through these relations we test the hypothesis that aftershock duration is inversely proportional to fault stressing rate, suggesting that aftershocks in active tectonic margins may last only a few years while aftershocks in intraplate regions could endure for decades to a century.

Sediment-induced amplification and the collapse of the Nimitz Freeway

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.; Friberg, P.A.; Busby, R.; Field, E.F.; Jacob, K.H.; Borcherdt, R.D.

1990-01-01

THE amplification of ground motion by low-seismic-velocity surface sediments is an important factor in determining the seismic hazard specific to a given site. The Ms = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October 1989 was the largest event in the contiguous United States in 37 years, and yielded an unparalleled volume of seismic data from the main shock and aftershock sequence1. These data can be used to image the seismic source, to study detailed Earth structure, and to study the propagation of seismic waves both through bedrock at depth and through sediment layers near the surface. Near the edge of San Francisco Bay, site conditions vary considerably on scales of hundreds of metres. The collapsed section of the two-tiered Nimitz Freeway in Oakland was built on San Francisco Bay mud, whereas stiffer alluvial sediments underlie a southern section that was damaged but did not collapse. Here we analyse high-quality, digital aftershock recordings from several sites near the Nimitz Freeway, and conclude that soil conditions and resulting ground-motion amplification may have contributed significantly to the failure of the structure.

Relations between seismicity and deformation during unrest in Long Valley Caldera, California, from 1995 through 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, D.P.; Langbein, J.O.; Prejean, S.

2003-01-01

Unrest in Long Valley Caldera and the adjacent Sierra Nevada from 1995 through 2000 was dominated by three major episodes: (1) the March-April 1996 earthquake swarm in the east lobe of the south moat; (2) the July 1997-January 1998 caldera-wide unrest; and (3) a sequence of three M>5 earthquakes (9 June 1998, 13 July 1998, and 15 May 1999 UT) located in the Sierra Nevada block immediately south of the caldera. These three unrest episodes each had distinct characteristics with distinct implications for associated hazards. Seismicity developed as earthquake swarms for the 1996 and 1997-98 episodes, both of which were within the caldera. In contrast, the series of three M>5 earthquakes south of the caldera in 1998-99 each developed as a mainshock-aftershock sequence. Marginal deformation within the caldera associated with the 1996 swarm and the 1998-99 M>5 earthquakes is consistent with the cumulative seismic moments for the respective sequences. Deformation associated with the 1997-98 episode, however, was roughly five times larger than can be accounted for by the cumulative seismic moment of the associated earthquake swarm. We conclude that the 1997-98 episode was associated with mass transport (local intrusion of magma or magmatic brine) and that the associated earthquake swarm activity, which had a relatively high b -value of 1.2, was largely driven by the intrusive process. In contrast, the 1996 earthquake swarm and the 1998-99 M>5 mainshock-aftershock sequences, both with 'normal' b -values of ???0.9, represent brittle relaxation to previously accumulated stresses associated with little or no mass transport. These relations emphasize the importance of simultaneous, real-time monitoring of both seismicity and deformation as a basis for judging whether an evolving unrest episode has the potential for culminating in a volcanic eruption. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Intraplate seismicity along the Gedi Fault in Kachchh rift basin of western India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Vishwa; Rastogi, B. K.; Kumar, Santosh

2017-11-01

The Kachchh rift basin is located on the western continental margin of India and has a history of experiencing large to moderate intraplate earthquakes with M ≥ 5. During the past two centuries, two large earthquakes of Mw 7.8 (1819) and Mw 7.7 (2001) have occurred in the Kachchh region, the latter with an epicenter near Bhuj. The aftershock activity of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake is still ongoing with migration of seismicity. Initially, epicenters migrated towards the east and northeast within the Kachchh region but, since 2007, it has also migrated to the south. The triggered faults are mostly within 100 km and some up to 200 km distance from the epicentral area of the mainshock. Most of these faults are trending in E-W direction, and some are transverse. It was noticed that some faults generate earthquakes down to the Moho depth whereas some faults show earthquake activity within the upper crustal volume. The Gedi Fault, situated about 50 km northeast of the 2001 mainshock epicenter, triggered the largest earthquake of Mw 5.6 in 2006. We have carried out detailed seismological studies to evaluate the seismic potential of the Gedi Fault. We have relocated 331 earthquakes by HypoDD to improve upon location errors. Further, the relocated events are used to estimate the b value, p value, and fractal correlation dimension Dc of the fault zone. The present study indicates that all the events along the Gedi Fault are shallow in nature, with focal depths less than 20 km. The estimated b value shows that the Gedi aftershock sequence could be classified as Mogi's type 2 sequence, and the p value suggests a relatively slow decay of aftershocks. The fault plane solutions of some selected events of Mw > 3.5 are examined, and activeness of the Gedi Fault is assessed from the results of active fault studies as well as GPS and InSAR results. All these results are critically examined to evaluate the material properties and seismic potential of the Gedi Fault that may be useful for seismic hazard assessment in the region.

A data-based model to locate mass movements triggered by seismic events in Sichuan, China.

PubMed

de Souza, Fabio Teodoro

2014-01-01

Earthquakes affect the entire world and have catastrophic consequences. On May 12, 2008, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 on the Richter scale occurred in the Wenchuan area of Sichuan province in China. This event, together with subsequent aftershocks, caused many avalanches, landslides, debris flows, collapses, and quake lakes and induced numerous unstable slopes. This work proposes a methodology that uses a data mining approach and geographic information systems to predict these mass movements based on their association with the main and aftershock epicenters, geologic faults, riverbeds, and topography. A dataset comprising 3,883 mass movements is analyzed, and some models to predict the location of these mass movements are developed. These predictive models could be used by the Chinese authorities as an important tool for identifying risk areas and rescuing survivors during similar events in the future.

Effect of Coulomb stress on the Gutenberg-Richter law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navas-Portella, V.; Corral, A.; Jimenez, A.

2017-12-01

Coulomb stress theory has been used for years in seismology to understand how earthquakes trigger each other. Whenever an earthquake occurs, the stress field changes in its neighbourhood, with places with positive values brought closer to failure, whereas negative values distance away that location from failure. Earthquake models that relate rate changes and Coulomb stress after a main event, such as the rate-and-state model, assume negative and positive stress values affect rate changes according to the same functional form. As a first order approximation, under uniform background seismicity before the main event, different values of the b-exponent in the Gutenberg-Richter law would indicate different behaviour for positive and negative stress. In this work, we study the Gutenberg-Richter law in the aftershock sequence of the Landers earthquake (California, 1992, MW=7.3). By using a statistically based fitting method, we discuss whether the sign of Coulomb stresses and the distance to the fault have a significant effect on the value of the b-exponent.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sweeney, J. J.; Ford, S. R.

The experience of IFE14 emphasizes the need for a better way to simulate aftershocks during an OSI exercise. The obvious approach is to develop a digital model of aftershocks that can be used either for a real field exercise or for a computer simulation that can be done in an office, for training for example. However, this approach involves consideration of several aspects, such as how and when to introduce waveforms in a way that maximizes the realism of the data and that will be convincing to a savvy, experienced seismic analyst. The purpose of this report is to outlinemore » a plan for how this approach can be implemented.« less

A Chicken-Or-Egg Riddle: Why Do Many Large Basin and Range Ruptures Terminate in Seismically Active Geothermal Zones?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, R. S.; Sevilgen, V.

2016-12-01

The 26 March 1872 M 7.6 Owens Valley, CA, rupture extended between two seismically active geothermal areas: Ridgecrest-Coso to the south and Mammoth-Long Valley to the north. Is this a coincidence, or is the rupture extent related to the geothermal and seismic activity? The 1872 rupture might have been confined between these two shattered, fluid-saturated zones if, because of very low friction, they do not accumulate stress. Alternatively, the 1872 earthquake could have activated these zones, as they are located where the rupture is calculated to have increased the Coulomb stress by 1-2 bars. Cause or effect, this phenomenon may be common in trans-tensional regimes: There are geothermal areas near or just beyond the ends of the 1954 M=7.1 Fairview Peak and M=6.8 Dixie Valley, NV, ruptures, with some seismicity clusters beyond the rupture tips. The 2008 Mw=6.0 South Iceland earthquake, another site of trans-tensional faulting and geothermal activity, shows intense aftershock clusters off the ends of the main rupture, resembling the 1872 earthquake. This chicken-or-egg riddle would be easy to solve if it were known whether the earthquake rate in the geothermal areas increased as a result of the 1872 shock. There is only one recorded quake before the mainshock, a July 1871 M 5.5 event at the southern tip of the 1872 rupture; this suggests the clusters might have been active before the mainshock. On the other hand, one of the two largest aftershocks of the 1872 event, a M 6.8 near Bishop two weeks after the mainshock, stuck in the center of the northern cluster, which supports the clusters were activated by the mainshock. We walk away with a tie. If the 1872 rupture did trigger the activity in the clusters, it begs a harder question: Could aftershocks or triggered seismicity have continued almost 150 years after the mainshock? The Owens Valley Fault slips 2-3 mm/yr, about a tenth of the San Andreas Fault rate. Rate/state theory and observations from the central US and Japan indicate that an Owens Valley aftershock sequence should last about ten times longer than one on the San Andreas. The Owens Valley Fault appears to produce M 7.5 shocks roughly every 3,500 yr, and so 150 yr is 4% of the interevent time, equivalent to about 10 yr on the San Andreas. Therefore, one cannot exclude the possibility that these earthquakes are aftershocks.

Geological controls on hillslope-failure mechanisms during the 2010-2011 earthquake sequence in suburban Christchurch, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McSaveney, M. J.; Massey, C. I.; Wang, G.

2012-12-01

Parts of the city of Christchurch NZ were severely damaged when a series of shallow aftershocks from the Mw 7.1 Darfield earthquake of 4 Sept. 2010 occurred beneath the city. Hillside suburbs are on the flanks of an extinct and deeply dissected Miocene basalt volcano which is widely mantled by Pleistocene loess. Portions of the lower flanks of the volcano have been cliffed by late Holocene marine erosion. Highly prized cliff-top homes overlook the city with a backdrop of the Southern Alps, or a seascape of the south Pacific Ocean. Here we discuss how various hillslope materials responded in different ways to the unusually high ground accelerations in the hillside suburbs. Most ground damage occurred in two major aftershocks: the Mw 6.2 Christchurch earthquake of 22 Feb. 2011, in which 184 people died, and a Mw 6.2 aftershock of 13 June 2011. Ground accelerations in these earthquakes were recorded locally in excess of 2 g. Significant ground damage occurred in 3 other strong aftershocks, although minor rockfalls were observed in many smaller aftershocks of which there were thousands. In the highest ground accelerations, many loose hillside objects were thrown into the air. More than 5000 loose basalt boulders were thrown or toppled from steep slopes to roll through residential properties on the slopes below. In addition, cliff tops and faces crumbled into debris avalanches. In the 13 June earthquake a geotechnical witness on a cliff top described ground cracks opening and closing around him as he scrambled off the collapsing cliff edge during the strong cyclic shaking. Loess landslides were a relative minor but damaging component. Dynamic ring-shear testing showed that the loess fails during amplified strong ground shaking, but shear displacement stops soon after, so that the earthquake-triggered loess landslides move only during strong earthquakes. Detected minor lateral movement in strongly weathered basaltic tuff and basaltic lava breccia is a cause of concern because deep weathering has left a rock composed largely of plagioclase, goethite, and pore space, with minor clay minerals. Dynamic ring-shear testing revealed some alarming properties. A remolded sample was initially unresponsive to amplified strong earthquake loading, but failed catastrophically (shear strain continuing long after the end of strong shaking) on the third seismic challenge. Shear resistance was strongly rate dependent, with shear resistance reducing with increasing strain rate. No catastrophic landslides of these weathered materials have occurred in the brief historic period, but the potential for them to occur gives new emphasis to their further investigation.

The Mechanisms and Spatiotemporal Behavior of the 2011 Mw7.1 Van, Eastern Turkey Earthquake Aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezgi Guvercin Isik, Sezim; Ozgun Konca, A.; Karabulut, Hayrullah

2016-04-01

We studied the mechanisms and spatiotemporal distribution of the aftershocks of the Mw7.1 Van Earthquake, in Eastern Turkey. The 2011 Van Earthquake occurred on a E-W trending blind thrust fault in Eastern Turkey which is under N-S compression due to convergence of the Arabian plate toward the Eurasia. In this study, we relocated and studied the mechanisms of the M3.5-5.5 aftershocks from regional Pnl and surface waves using the "Cut and Paste" algorithm of Zhu and Helmberger (1996). Our results reveal that the aftershocks in the first day following the mainshock are in the vicinity of the co-seismic slip and have mostly thrust mechanism consistent with the mainshock. In the following day, a second cluster of activity at the northeast termination of the fault ( North of Lake Erçek) has started. These aftershocks have approximately N-S lineation and left lateral source mechanisms. The aftershocks surrounding the mainshock rupture are deeper (>20 km) than the aftershocks triggered on the north (<15km). We also observe strike slip earthquakes on the south of the mainshock. Both of delayed activities (north of the mainshock and south of the mainshock) are consistent with the Coulomb stress increase due to slip on the mainshock. We propose that the Van Fault is truncated by two strike-slip faults at each end, which has determined the along-strike rupture extent of the 2011 mainshock.

Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varnes, D.J.

1989-01-01

During 11 sequences of earthquakes that in retrospect can be classed as foreshocks, the accelerating rate at which seismic moment is released follows, at least in part, a simple equation. This equation (1) is {Mathematical expression},where {Mathematical expression} is the cumulative sum until time, t, of the square roots of seismic moments of individual foreshocks computed from reported magnitudes;C and n are constants; and tfis a limiting time at which the rate of seismic moment accumulation becomes infinite. The possible time of a major foreshock or main shock, tf,is found by the best fit of equation (1), or its integral, to step-like plots of {Mathematical expression} versus time using successive estimates of tfin linearized regressions until the maximum coefficient of determination, r2,is obtained. Analyzed examples include sequences preceding earthquakes at Cremasta, Greece, 2/5/66; Haicheng, China 2/4/75; Oaxaca, Mexico, 11/29/78; Petatlan, Mexico, 3/14/79; and Central Chile, 3/3/85. In 29 estimates of main-shock time, made as the sequences developed, the errors in 20 were less than one-half and in 9 less than one tenth the time remaining between the time of the last data used and the main shock. Some precursory sequences, or parts of them, yield no solution. Two sequences appear to include in their first parts the aftershocks of a previous event; plots using the integral of equation (1) show that the sequences are easily separable into aftershock and foreshock segments. Synthetic seismic sequences of shocks at equal time intervals were constructed to follow equation (1), using four values of n. In each series the resulting distributions of magnitudes closely follow the linear Gutenberg-Richter relation log N=a-bM, and the product n times b for each series is the same constant. In various forms and for decades, equation (1) has been used successfully to predict failure times of stressed metals and ceramics, landslides in soil and rock slopes, and volcanic eruptions. Results of more recent experiments and theoretical studies on crack propagation, fault mechanics, and acoustic emission can be closely reproduced by equation (1). Rate-process theory and continuum damage mechanics offer leads toward understanding the physical processes. ?? 1989 Birkha??user Verlag.

Earthquake Forecasting System in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falcone, G.; Marzocchi, W.; Murru, M.; Taroni, M.; Faenza, L.

2017-12-01

In Italy, after the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, a procedure was developed for gathering and disseminating authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazard to help communities prepare for a potentially destructive earthquake. The most striking time dependency of the earthquake occurrence process is the time clustering, which is particularly pronounced in time windows of days and weeks. The Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) system that is developed at the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro di Pericolosità Sismica, CPS) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) is the authoritative source of seismic hazard information for Italian Civil Protection. The philosophy of the system rests on a few basic concepts: transparency, reproducibility, and testability. In particular, the transparent, reproducible, and testable earthquake forecasting system developed at CPS is based on ensemble modeling and on a rigorous testing phase. Such phase is carried out according to the guidance proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP, international infrastructure aimed at evaluating quantitatively earthquake prediction and forecast models through purely prospective and reproducible experiments). In the OEF system, the two most popular short-term models were used: the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) and the Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities (STEP). Here, we report the results from OEF's 24hour earthquake forecasting during the main phases of the 2016-2017 sequence occurred in Central Apennines (Italy).

Broadband Ground Motion Synthesis of the 1999 Turkey Earthquakes Based On: 3-D Velocity Inversion, Finite Difference Calculations and Emprical Greens Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gok, R.; Kalafat, D.; Hutchings, L.

2003-12-01

We analyze over 3,500 aftershocks recorded by several seismic networks during the 1999 Marmara, Turkey earthquakes. The analysis provides source parameters of the aftershocks, a three-dimensional velocity structure from tomographic inversion, an input three-dimensional velocity model for a finite difference wave propagation code (E3D, Larsen 1998), and records available for use as empirical Green's functions. Ultimately our goal is to model the 1999 earthquakes from DC to 25 Hz and study fault rupture mechanics and kinematic rupture models. We performed the simultaneous inversion for hypocenter locations and three-dimensional P- and S- wave velocity structure of Marmara Region using SIMULPS14 along with 2,500 events with more than eight P- readings and an azimuthal gap of less than 180\\deg. The resolution of calculated velocity structure is better in the eastern Marmara than the western Marmara region due to the dense ray coverage. We used the obtained velocity structure as input into the finite difference algorithm and validated the model by using M < 4 earthquakes as point sources and matching long period waveforms (f < 0.5 Hz). We also obtained Mo, fc and individual station kappa values for over 500 events by performing a simultaneous inversion to fit these parameters with a Brune source model. We used the results of the source inversion to deconvolve out a Brune model from small to moderate size earthquakes (M < 4.0) to obtain empirical Green's function (EGF) for the higher frequency range of ground motion synthesis (0.5 < f > 25 Hz). We additionally obtained the source scaling relation (energy-moment) of these aftershocks. We have generated several scenarios constrained by a priori knowledge of the Izmit and Duzce rupture parameters to validate our prediction capability.

Employing the Quake-Catcher Network (QCN) to Investigate Site Effects in Christchurch, New Zealand Using the κ Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neighbors, C.; Liao, E. J.; Cochran, E. S.; Chung, A. I.; Lawrence, J.; Kaiser, A. E.; Fry, B.; Christensen, C. M.

2011-12-01

The 3 September 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield earthquake was felt over 900 km from the source. The maximum felt-intensity was estimated to be at Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) 9 and measured near-field accelerations were found to exceed 1 g. The mainshock damaged or destroyed over 100,000 buildings and spatially variable effects (such as liquefaction, slumping, and amplification) were observed throughout the city of Christchurch. Following the mainshock, a vigorous aftershock sequence has continued for months in the region. To record the aftershocks for early warning and other hazard mitigation efforts, a network of over 192 low-cost, 14-bit accelerometers were deployed in local buildings as part of the Quake-Catcher Network Rapid Aftershock Mobilization Project (RAMP). With a large number of sensors covering a city area of ~300 km2, the RAMP collected vastly more data and at a finer scale relative to the deployment of costly traditional broadband sensors. Recent comparison of the signal-to-noise quality of the 14-bit QCN sensors to the strong motion 24-bit New Zealand GeoNet sensors show similar responses. Initial analyses of the data show that aftershocks of magnitude >M4.5 within 30 km of the hypocentral distance were well recorded by QCN sensors. Utilizing the dense coverage, we investigate local site amplification by analyzing the spectra decay parameter, kappa (κ). Following the routine outlined in Douglas et al. (2010, Pure Appl. Geophys.), whereby a 5-sec S-wave window is used to calculate the Fourier spectra and κ for each station, investigations of κ values between stations are used to estimate site conditions on seismic wave behavior at each location. Results from this study will be compared to work performed by New Zealand researchers using other methods to calculate site response, such as the spectral ratio method. Together, these studies will highlight areas of the Christchurch region that may be more susceptible to ground shaking, which can be used to mitigate loss prior to future large earthquakes.

Location of early aftershocks of the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture Earthquake (M = 6.8) in central Japan using seismogram envelopes as templates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosuga, M.

2013-12-01

The location of early aftershocks is very important to obtain information of mainshock fault, however, it is often difficult due to the long-lasting coda wave of mainshock and successive occurrence of afterrshocks. To overcome this difficulty, we developed a method of location using seismogram envelopes as templates, and applied the method to the early aftershock sequence of the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture (Chuetsu) Earthquake (M = 6.8) in central Japan. The location method composes of three processes. The first process is the calculation of cross-correlation coefficients between a continuous (target) and template envelopes. We prepare envelopes by taking the logarithm of root-mean-squared amplitude of band-pass filtered seismograms. We perform the calculation by shifting the time window to obtain a set of cross-correlation values for each template. The second process is the event detection (selection of template) and magnitude estimate. We search for the events in descending order of cross-correlation in a time window excluding the dead times around the previously detected events. Magnitude is calculated by the amplitude ratio of target and template envelopes. The third process is the relative event location to the selected template. We applied this method to the Chuetsu earthquake, a large inland earthquake with extensive aftershock activity. The number of detected events depends on the number of templates, frequency range, and the threshold value of cross-correlation. We set the threshold as 0.5 by referring to the histogram of cross-correlation. During a period of one-hour from the mainshock, we could detect more events than the JMA catalog. The location of events is generally near the catalog location. Though we should improve the methods of relative location and magnitude estimate, we conclude that the proposed method works adequately even just after the mainshock of large inland earthquake. Acknowledgement: We thank JMA, NIED, and the University of Tokyo for providing arrival time data, and waveform data. This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 23540487.

Wastewater disposal and the earthquake sequences during 2016 near Fairview, Pawnee, and Cushing, Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, Arthur F.; Barbour, Andrew

2017-01-01

Each of the three earthquake sequences in Oklahoma in 2016—Fairview, Pawnee, and Cushing—appears to have been induced by high-volume wastewater disposal within 10 km. The Fairview M5.1 main shock was part of a 2 year sequence of more than 150 events of M3, or greater; the main shock accounted for about half of the total moment. The foreshocks and aftershocks of the M5.8 Pawnee earthquake were too small and too few to contribute significantly to the cumulative moment; instead, nearly all of the moment induced by wastewater injection was focused on the main shock. The M5.0 Cushing event is part of a sequence that includes 48 earthquakes of M3, or greater, that are mostly foreshocks. The cumulative moment for each of the three sequences during 2016, as well as that for the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma, and nine other sequences representing a broad range of injected volume, are all limited by the total volumes of wastewater injected locally.

Three-dimensional magnetotelluric imaging of the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake doublet, Southwest Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asamori, K.; Makuuchi, A.; Umeda, K.

2013-12-01

The 1997 Kagoshima earthquake doublet struck on unrecognized active faults lacking clear surface expression where very few large earthquakes have occurred. Two shallow moderate earthquakes occurred in the northwestern part of Kagoshima province, on March 26 (Mw 6.1) and May 13 (Mw 6.0) in 1997, both followed by intensive aftershock sequences. Aftershock distribution of the 1997 earthquake doublet reflects complicated rupture process attributed to the geological (rheological) conditions and coupling of hydraulic pressure as well as tectonic shear stress. For advanced understanding of dynamic interactions between fluids and faulting, it is imperative to obtain three-dimensional (3-D) images of the electrical resistivity structure around the seismogenic faults. In this study, we conduct magnetotelluric (MT) soundings in and around the source region of the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake sequence and perform a 3-D inversion of wideband MT data above a depth of 30 km. MT stations were deployed around the aftershock area of the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake. All of 42 MT sites were set up in the land area. The data were collected using five component (three magnetic and two telluric components) wide-band MT instruments (Phoenix MTU-5 system) in February, 2013. The data were acquired in the frequency range from 0.000343 to 320 Hz. The recording duration ranged from 2 to 8 days. As the cultural noises severely affect the measurements, the time series analysis focused on the nocturnal data when there were fewer noise. A simultaneous remote reference measurement was carried out at the Sawauchi site (1300 km northeast of the study area). Using the remote reference technique (Gamble et al., 1979), we were able to reduce the unfavorable cultural noises. The observed apparent resistivity and phase data were inverted simultaneously using the 3-D inversion code of Sasaki (2004). In this inversion, the 3-D blocks were set up in the crust and upper mantle. These block size in the horizontal and vertical directions were 2-6 km and 0.9-20 km, respectively. The obtained 3-D resistivity model acquired through the inversion shows as follows. (1) Two anomalous conductive bodies (< 30 ohm-m) are clearly visible in the upper and lower crust beneath the seismic source region, and seem to be combined and extend down to the uppermost mantle. (2) These conductive bodies are located just beside the two mainshocks in the upper crust. (3) These results suggest that the generation of two large earthquakes is not a pure mechanical process, but is closely related to heterogeneities in the material property and stress field due to the relatively effective transfer of fluids from the upper mantle.

The Rupture Characteristic of 1999 Izmit Sequence Using IRIS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konca, A. O.; Helmberger, D. V.; Ji, C.; Tan, Y.

2003-12-01

The standard source studies use teleseismic data (30° to 90° ) to analyze earthquakes. Therefore, only a limited portion of the focal sphere is involved in source determinations. Furthermore, the locations and origin times of events remain incompatible with local determinations. Here, we attempt to resolve such issues by using IRIS data at all distances, leading to more accurate and detailed rupture properties and accurate relative locations. The 1999 Izmit earthquake sequence is chosen to test our method. The challenge of using data outside the conventional teleseismic distance range is that the arrival times and waveforms are affected more by the Earth structure. We overcome this difficulty by calibrating the path effects for the mainshock using the simpler aftershocks. Therefore, it is crucial to determine the source parameters of the aftershock. We constructed a Green's function library from a regionalized 1-D model and performed a grid search to establish the depth and fault parameters based on waveform matching for the Pnl waves between the synthetics and data, allowing the synthetics in each station to shift separately to account for the path effect. Our results show that the earthquake depth was around 7 km, rather than 19 km from local observatory (Kandilli) and 15 km from the Harvard's CMT solution. The best focal mechanism has a strike of 263° , a dip of 65° , and a rake of 180° , which is very close to the Harvard's CMT solution. The waveform fits of this aftershock is then used as a criterion to select useful source-station paths. A path with a cross-correlation value above 90% between data and synthetics is defined as a "good path" and can be used for studying the Izmit and Duzce earthquakes. We find that the stations in Central Europe and some of the Greek Islands are "good paths", while the stations in Northeast Africa and Italy cannot be used. The time shifts that give the best cross-correlation values are used to calibrate the picks of the Izmit and Duzce events. We realize that this is a very objective way to pick arrival times. However, our preliminary inversions using teleseismic data for Duzce and Izmit events show that handpicked P and S arrival times of the same station from two very close events are not always well correlated. Obviously, how we pick the arrival time governs the rupture pattern and rupture velocity. Therefore, our methodology brings a more objective approach to pick the travel times. To the end, we will invert for the source history of the Duzce and Izmit earthquakes with the regional data and compare with the inversion result using teleseismic data. Moreover, predictions of the teleseismic data, using the solution from the inversion using regional phases will be presented.

Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, Andrew J.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the probability that an ML 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of large earthquake probabilities, including characteristic earthquakes (Agnew and Jones, 1991). I demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to Gutenberg–Richter behavior. While Gutenberg–Richter behavior is well established over large regions, it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large‐event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events. I develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models. This new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs, but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes, rather than just for events larger than the initial one. Compared with the aftershock model, the new model has the advantage of taking into account long‐term earthquake probability models. Using consistent parameters, the probability of an M 7 mainshock on the southernmost San Andreas fault is 0.0001 for three days from long‐term models and the clustering probabilities following the ML 4.8 event are 0.00035 for a Gutenberg–Richter distribution and 0.013 for a characteristic‐earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution. Our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first‐order effect on the probabilities obtained from short‐term clustering models for these large events.

Moment tensor inversion of recent local moderate sized Van Earthquakes: seismicity and active tectonics of the Van region : Eastern Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalafat, D.; Suvarikli, M.; Ogutcu, Z.; Kekovali, K.; Ocal, M. F.; Gunes, Y.; Pinar, A.

2013-12-01

The study area of the present research, the Van Region is located at the norththern end of the collision zone between the Anatolia and Arabian plates. Therefore, the southeast border of the Anatolian plate collides with the Arabian plate along the Bitlis Suture Zone. This zone is formed by collision of Arabian and in large scale Eurasian plates at mid-Miocen age. This type of thrust generation as a result of compressional regime extends east-west. The largest recorded earthquakes have all taken place along Southern Turkey (e.g. Lice, 1971; Varto, 1966; Caldiran, 1976). On the 23th of October 2011, an earthquake shook the Van Lake, Eastern Turkey, following a seismic sequence of more than three months in an unprecedented episode for this region characterized by null or low seismicity. The October 23, 2011 Van-Ercis Earthquake (Mw=7.1) was the most devastating resulting in loss of life and destruction. In order to study the aftershocks' activity of this main event, we installed and kept a seismic network of 10 broad-band (BB) stations in the area for an interval of nearly fifteen months. We characterized the seismogenic structure of the zone by calculating a minimum 1-D local velocity model and obtaining precise hypocentre locations. We also calculated fault plane solutions for more than 200 moderate sized earthquakes based on first motion polarities and commonly Moment Tensor Inversion Methods. The seismogenic zone would be localized at aproximately 10 km depth. Generally, the distribution of the important moderate earthquakes and the aftershock distribution shows that the E-W and NE-SW oriented fault segments cause the earthquake activities. Aftershock events are located along the eastern border of Lake Van and mainly between 5 and 10 km depth and disposed in two alignments: a ~E-W-trending alignment that matches with the trace of the Van Trust fault Zone and a NE-trending which could correspond to an structure not previously seen. Selected focal mechanisms show a strong trust faulting which coincides with the nature of the Van fault. We were currently analysing an archive of over 5000 local events recorded by the KOERI seismic network of over 20 broadband stations between 2010 and 2013 in the whole Van Region. The Van Earthquake initiated and caused an increase in seismic activity of the region. Van Earthquake and its important aftershocks fault mechanism solutions show that the region is under compression and reverse faulting is a result of this regime which is effective on the active compressional tectonics of the region. This study was supported by Bogazici University Research Projects Commission under SRP/BAP project No. 6040.

Long-Term Seismic Quiescences and Great Earthquakes in and Around the Japan Subduction Zone Between 1975 and 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katsumata, Kei

2017-06-01

An earthquake catalog created by the International Seismological Center (ISC) was analyzed, including 3898 earthquakes located in and around Japan between January 1964 and June 2012 shallower than 60 km with the body wave magnitude of 5.0 or larger. Clustered events such as earthquake swarms and aftershocks were removed from the ISC catalog by using a stochastic declustering method based on Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. A detailed analysis of the earthquake catalog using a simple scanning technique (ZMAP) shows that the long-term seismic quiescences lasting more than 9 years were recognized ten times along the subduction zone in and around Japan. The three seismic quiescences among them were followed by three great earthquakes: the 1994 Hokkaido-toho-oki earthquake ( M w 8.3), the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake ( M w 8.3), and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake ( M w 9.0). The remaining seven seismic quiescences were followed by no earthquake with the seismic moment M 0 ≥ 3.0 × 1021 Nm ( M w 8.25), which are candidates of the false alarm. The 2006 Kurile Islands earthquake ( M w 8.3) was not preceded by the significant seismic quiescence, which is a case of the surprise occurrence. As a result, when limited to earthquakes with the seismic moment of M 0 ≥ 3.0 × 1021 Nm, four earthquakes occurred between 1976 and 2012 in and around Japan, and three of them were preceded by the long-term seismic quiescence lasting more than 9 years.

Use of Archived Information by the United States National Data Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junek, W. N.; Pope, B. M.; Roman-Nieves, J. I.; VanDeMark, T. F.; Ichinose, G. A.; Poffenberger, A.; Woods, M. T.

2012-12-01

The United States National Data Center (US NDC) is responsible for monitoring international compliance to nuclear test ban treaties, acquiring data and data products from the International Data Center (IDC), and distributing data according to established policy. The archive of automated and reviewed event solutions residing at the US NDC is a valuable resource for assessing and improving the performance of signal detection, event formation, location, and discrimination algorithms. Numerous research initiatives are currently underway that are focused on optimizing these processes using historic waveform data and alphanumeric information. Identification of optimum station processing parameters is routinely performed through the analysis of archived waveform data. Station specific detector tuning studies produce and compare receiver operating characteristics for multiple detector configurations (e.g., detector type, filter passband) to identify an optimum set of processing parameters with an acceptable false alarm rate. Large aftershock sequences can inundate automated phase association algorithms with numerous detections that are closely spaced in time, which increases the number of false and/or mixed associations in automated event solutions and increases analyst burden. Archived waveform data and alphanumeric information are being exploited to develop an aftershock processor that will construct association templates to assist the Global Association (GA) application, reduce the number of false and merged phase associations, and lessen analyst burden. Statistical models are being developed and evaluated for potential use by the GA application for identifying and rejecting unlikely preliminary event solutions. Other uses of archived data at the US NDC include: improved event locations using empirical travel time corrections and discrimination via a statistical framework known as the event classification matrix (ECM).

A footwall system of faults associated with a foreland thrust in Montana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watkinson, A. J.

1993-05-01

Some recent structural geology models of faulting have promoted the idea of a rigid footwall behaviour or response under the main thrust fault, especially for fault ramps or fault-bend folds. However, a very well-exposed thrust fault in the Montana fold and thrust belt shows an intricate but well-ordered system of subsidiary minor faults in the footwall position with respect to the main thrust fault plane. Considerable shortening has occurred off the main fault in this footwall collapse zone and the distribution and style of the minor faults accord well with published patterns of aftershock foci associated with thrust faults. In detail, there appear to be geometrically self-similar fault systems from metre length down to a few centimetres. The smallest sets show both slip and dilation. The slickensides show essentially two-dimensional displacements, and three slip systems were operative—one parallel to the bedding, and two conjugate and symmetric about the bedding (acute angle of 45-50°). A reconstruction using physical analogue models suggests one possible model for the evolution and sequencing of slip of the thrust fault system.

Active backstop faults in the Mentawai region of Sumatra, Indonesia, revealed by teleseismic broadband waveform modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xin; Bradley, Kyle Edward; Wei, Shengji; Wu, Wenbo

2018-02-01

Two earthquake sequences that affected the Mentawai islands offshore of central Sumatra in 2005 (Mw 6.9) and 2009 (Mw 6.7) have been highlighted as evidence for active backthrusting of the Sumatran accretionary wedge. However, the geometry of the activated fault planes is not well resolved due to large uncertainties in the locations of the mainshocks and aftershocks. We refine the locations and focal mechanisms of medium size events (Mw > 4.5) of these two earthquake sequences through broadband waveform modeling. In addition to modeling the depth-phases for accurate centroid depths, we use teleseismic surface wave cross-correlation to precisely relocate the relative horizontal locations of the earthquakes. The refined catalog shows that the 2005 and 2009 "backthrust" sequences in Mentawai region actually occurred on steeply (∼60 degrees) landward-dipping faults (Masilo Fault Zone) that intersect the Sunda megathrust beneath the deepest part of the forearc basin, contradicting previous studies that inferred slip on a shallowly seaward-dipping backthrust. Static slip inversion on the newly-proposed fault fits the coseismic GPS offsets for the 2009 mainshock equally well as previous studies, but with a slip distribution more consistent with the mainshock centroid depth (∼20 km) constrained from teleseismic waveform inversion. Rupture of such steeply dipping reverse faults within the forearc crust is rare along the Sumatra-Java margin. We interpret these earthquakes as 'unsticking' of the Sumatran accretionary wedge along a backstop fault separating imbricated material from the stronger Sunda lithosphere. Alternatively, the reverse faults may have originated as pre-Miocene normal faults of the extended continental crust of the western Sunda margin. Our waveform modeling approach can be used to further refine global earthquake catalogs in order to clarify the geometries of active faults.

Aftershock triggering by complete Coulomb stress changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kilb, Debi; Gomberg, J.; Bodin, P.

2002-01-01

We examine the correlation between seismicity rate change following the 1992, M7.3, Landers, California, earthquake and characteristics of the complete Coulomb failure stress (CFS) changes (??CFS(t)) that this earthquake generated. At close distances the time-varying "dynamic" portion of the stress change depends on how the rupture develops temporally and spatially and arises from radiated seismic waves and from permanent coseismic fault displacement. The permanent "static" portion (??CFS) depends only on the final coseismic displacement. ??CFS diminishes much more rapidly with distance than the transient, dynamic stress changes. A common interpretation of the strong correlation between ??CFS and aftershocks is that load changes can advance or delay failure. Stress changes may also promote failure by physically altering properties of the fault or its environs. Because it is transient, ??CFS(t) can alter the failure rate only by the latter means. We calculate both ??CFS and the maximum positive value of ??CFS(t) (peak ??CFS(t)) using a reflectivity program. Input parameters are constrained by modeling Landers displacement seismograms. We quantify the correlation between maps of seismicity rate changes and maps of modeled ??CFS and peak ??CFS(t) and find agreement for both models. However, rupture directivity, which does not affect ??CFS, creates larger peak ??CFS(t) values northwest of the main shock. This asymmetry is also observed in seismicity rate changes but not in ??CFS. This result implies that dynamic stress changes are as effective as static stress changes in triggering aftershocks and may trigger earthquakes long after the waves have passed.

Testing the stress shadow hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felzer, Karen R.; Brodsky, Emily E.

2005-05-01

A fundamental question in earthquake physics is whether aftershocks are predominantly triggered by static stress changes (permanent stress changes associated with fault displacement) or dynamic stresses (temporary stress changes associated with earthquake shaking). Both classes of models provide plausible explanations for earthquake triggering of aftershocks, but only the static stress model predicts stress shadows, or regions in which activity is decreased by a nearby earthquake. To test for whether a main shock has produced a stress shadow, we calculate time ratios, defined as the ratio of the time between the main shock and the first earthquake to follow it and the time between the last earthquake to precede the main shock and the first earthquake to follow it. A single value of the time ratio is calculated for each 10 × 10 km bin within 1.5 fault lengths of the main shock epicenter. Large values of the time ratio indicate a long wait for the first earthquake to follow the main shock and thus a potential stress shadow, whereas small values indicate the presence of aftershocks. Simulations indicate that the time ratio test should have sufficient sensitivity to detect stress shadows if they are produced in accordance with the rate and state friction model. We evaluate the 1989 MW 7.0 Loma Prieta, 1992 MW 7.3 Landers, 1994 MW 6.7 Northridge, and 1999 MW 7.1 Hector Mine main shocks. For each main shock, there is a pronounced concentration of small time ratios, indicating the presence of aftershocks, but the number of large time ratios is less than at other times in the catalog. This suggests that stress shadows are not present. By comparing our results to simulations we estimate that we can be at least 98% confident that the Loma Prieta and Landers main shocks did not produce stress shadows and 91% and 84% confident that stress shadows were not generated by the Hector Mine and Northridge main shocks, respectively. We also investigate the long hypothesized existence of a stress shadow following the 1906 San Francisco Bay area earthquake. We find that while Bay Area catalog seismicity rates are lower in the first half of the twentieth century than in the last half of the nineteenth, this seismicity contrast is also true outside of the Bay Area, in regions not expected to contain a stress shadow. This suggests that the rate change is due to a more system wide effect, such as errors in the historical catalog or the decay of aftershocks of the larger 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake.

Aftershocks of the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake revealcomplex faulting in the Yuha Desert, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kroll, K.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Richards-Dinger, K.; Sumy, Danielle

2013-01-01

We detect and precisely locate over 9500 aftershocks that occurred in the Yuha Desert region during a 2 month period following the 4 April 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (EMC) earthquake. Events are relocated using a series of absolute and relative relocation procedures that include Hypoinverse, Velest, and hypoDD. Location errors are reduced to ~40 m horizontally and ~120 m vertically.Aftershock locations reveal a complex pattern of faulting with en echelon fault segments trending toward the northwest, approximately parallel to the North American-Pacific plate boundary and en echelon, conjugate features trending to the northeast. The relocated seismicity is highly correlated with published surface mapping of faults that experienced triggered surface slip in response to the EMC main shock. Aftershocks occurred between 2 km and 11 km depths, consistent with previous studies of seismogenic thickness in the region. Three-dimensional analysis reveals individual and intersecting fault planes that are limited in their along-strike length. These fault planes remain distinct structures at depth, indicative of conjugate faulting, and do not appear to coalesce onto a throughgoing fault segment. We observe a complex spatiotemporal migration of aftershocks, with seismicity that jumps between individual fault segments that are active for only a few days to weeks. Aftershock rates are roughly consistent with the expected earthquake production rates of Dieterich (1994). The conjugate pattern of faulting and nonuniform aftershock migration patterns suggest that strain in the Yuha Desert is being accommodated in a complex manner.

Reexamination of the subsurface fault structure in the vicinity of the 1989 moment-magnitude-6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake, central California, using steep-reflection, earthquake, and magnetic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Edward; Fuis, Gary S.; Catchings, Rufus D.; Scheirer, Daniel S.; Goldman, Mark; Bauer, Klaus

2018-06-13

We reexamine the geometry of the causative fault structure of the 1989 moment-magnitude-6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake in central California, using seismic-reflection, earthquake-hypocenter, and magnetic data. Our study is prompted by recent interpretations of a two-part dip of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) accompanied by a flower-like structure in the Coachella Valley, in southern California. Initially, the prevailing interpretation of fault geometry in the vicinity of the Loma Prieta earthquake was that the mainshock did not rupture the SAF, but rather a secondary fault within the SAF system, because network locations of aftershocks defined neither a vertical plane nor a fault plane that projected to the surface trace of the SAF. Subsequent waveform cross-correlation and double-difference relocations of Loma Prieta aftershocks appear to have clarified the fault geometry somewhat, with steeply dipping faults in the upper crust possibly connecting to the more moderately southwest-dipping mainshock rupture in the middle crust. Examination of steep-reflection data, extracted from a 1991 seismic-refraction profile through the Loma Prieta area, reveals three robust fault-like features that agree approximately in geometry with the clusters of upper-crustal relocated aftershocks. The subsurface geometry of the San Andreas, Sargent, and Berrocal Faults can be mapped using these features and the aftershock clusters. The San Andreas and Sargent Faults appear to dip northeastward in the uppermost crust and change dip continuously toward the southwest with depth. Previous models of gravity and magnetic data on profiles through the aftershock region also define a steeply dipping SAF, with an initial northeastward dip in the uppermost crust that changes with depth. At a depth 6 to 9 km, upper-crustal faults appear to project into the moderately southwest-dipping, planar mainshock rupture. The change to a planar dipping rupture at 6–9 km is similar to fault geometry seen in the Coachella Valley.

Using structures of the August 24, 2016 Amatrice earthquake affected area as seismoscopes for assessing ground motion characteristics and parameters of the main shock and its largest aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carydis, Panayotis; Lekkas, Efthymios; Mavroulis, Spyridon

2017-04-01

On August 24, 2016 an Mw 6.0 earthquake struck Central Apennines (Italy) resulting in 299 fatalities, 388 injuries and about 3000 homeless in Amatrice wider area. Normal faulting surface ruptures along the western slope of Mt Vettore along with provided focal mechanisms demonstrated a NW-SE striking and SE dipping causative normal fault. The dominant building types in the affected area are unreinforced masonry (URM) and reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. Based on our macroseismic survey in the affected area immediately after the earthquake, RC buildings suffered non-structural damage including horizontal cracking of infill and internal partition walls, detachment of infill walls from the surrounding RC frame and detachment of large plaster pieces from infill walls as well as structural damage comprising soft story failure, symmetrical buckling of rods, compression damage at midheight of columns and bursting of over-stressed columns resulting in partial or total collapse. Damage in RC buildings was due to poor quality of concrete, inadequacy of reinforcement, inappropriate foundation close to the edge of slopes leading to differential settlements, poor workmanship and the destructive effect of vertical ground motions. Damage in URM buildings ranged from cracks and detachment of large plaster pieces from load-bearing walls to destruction due to poor workmanship with randomly placed materials bound by low-strength mortars, the effect of the vertical ground motion, inadequate repair and/or strengthening after previous earthquakes as well as inadequate interventions, additions and extensions to older URM buildings. During field surveying, the authors had the opportunity to observe damage induced not only by the main shock but also by its largest aftershocks (Mw 4.5-5.3) during the first three days of the aftershock sequence (August 24-26). Bearing in mind that: (a) soil conditions in foundations of the affected villages were more or less similar, (b) building damage induced by the studied earthquakes indicated the predominant effect of the vertical ground motion on buildings based on already reported building damage induced by recent destructive events in the Mediterranean region, (c) the conventional dynamic parameters of buildings did not play a significant role in their seismic response against the vertical component, due to its impact type of loading, (d) structures and materials presented similar response to ground motions almost independent from type and existing quality, and carried memories from previous large shocks of this sequence, (e) the main shock and its largest aftershocks caused building damage including spatial homothetic motions that reached statistically significant levels, it is concluded that the main shock and its largest aftershocks had similar focal mechanism parameters (normal faulting), were shallow events and were near-field earthquakes with short duration but high amplitude and the vertical component of the earthquakes' ground motion has prevailed. The aforementioned approach based solely on macroseismic observations was applied in the case of the 1755 Great Lisbon earthquake in order to determine its mechanism and epicenter location. Thus, it is suggested that the aforementioned methodology can be applied either in past historic earthquakes or complementarily in cases when the available seismological data are insufficient.

Combining stress transfer and source directivity: the case of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence

PubMed Central

Convertito, Vincenzo; Catalli, Flaminia; Emolo, Antonio

2013-01-01

The Emilia seismic sequence (Northern Italy) started on May 2012 and caused 17 casualties, severe damage to dwellings and forced the closure of several factories. The total number of events recorded in one month was about 2100, with local magnitude ranging between 1.0 and 5.9. We investigate potential mechanisms (static and dynamic triggering) that may describe the evolution of the sequence. We consider rupture directivity in the dynamic strain field and observe that, for each main earthquake, its aftershocks and the subsequent large event occurred in an area characterized by higher dynamic strains and corresponding to the dominant rupture direction. We find that static stress redistribution alone is not capable of explaining the locations of subsequent events. We conclude that dynamic triggering played a significant role in driving the sequence. This triggering was also associated with a variation in permeability and a pore pressure increase in an area characterized by a massive presence of fluids. PMID:24177982

Fault source modeling of October 28, 2008 earthquake sequence in Baluchistan, Pakistan, on the basis of ALOS/PALSAR InSAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usman, M.; Furuya, M.

2014-12-01

The Quetta Syntaxis in the western Baluchistan, Pakistan, serves as a junction for different thrust faults. As this area also lays close to the left lateral strike slip Chaman fault, which is supposed to be marking the boundary between Indian and Eurasian plate, thus the resulting seismological behavior of this regime becomes much more complex. In the region of Quetta Syntaxis, below the fold and thrust belt of Suleiman and Kirthar ranges and on 28 October 2008, there stroke an earthquake of magnitude 6.4 (Mw) which was followed by a doublet on the very next day. In association with these major events, there have been four more shocks, one foreshock and three aftershocks that have moment magnitude greater than 5. On the basis of seismological, GPS and ENVISAT/ASAR InSAR data many researchers tried to explain the source of this sequence. The latest source modeling results, on the basis of ENVISAT/ASAR data has provided an insight about the complexity of tectonics in the study area. However, in comparison to ALOS/PALSAR InSAR data, ENVISAT/ASAR has lacked signals near the epicentral area because of the low coherence. Probably, it has led to different interpretations by different researchers even on the basis of same satellite data. By using ALOS/PALSAR data, we have suggested a four faults model, two left laterals and two right laterals, which also retains the most desirable features of previous models.

Application of Second-Moment Source Analysis to Three Problems in Earthquake Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donovan, J.; Jordan, T. H.

2011-12-01

Though earthquake forecasting models have often represented seismic sources as space-time points (usually hypocenters), a more complete hazard analysis requires the consideration of finite-source effects, such as rupture extent, orientation, directivity, and stress drop. The most compact source representation that includes these effects is the finite moment tensor (FMT), which approximates the degree-two polynomial moments of the stress glut by its projection onto the seismic (degree-zero) moment tensor. This projection yields a scalar space-time source function whose degree-one moments define the centroid moment tensor (CMT) and whose degree-two moments define the FMT. We apply this finite-source parameterization to three forecasting problems. The first is the question of hypocenter bias: can we reject the null hypothesis that the conditional probability of hypocenter location is uniformly distributed over the rupture area? This hypothesis is currently used to specify rupture sets in the "extended" earthquake forecasts that drive simulation-based hazard models, such as CyberShake. Following McGuire et al. (2002), we test the hypothesis using the distribution of FMT directivity ratios calculated from a global data set of source slip inversions. The second is the question of source identification: given an observed FMT (and its errors), can we identify it with an FMT in the complete rupture set that represents an extended fault-based rupture forecast? Solving this problem will facilitate operational earthquake forecasting, which requires the rapid updating of earthquake triggering and clustering models. Our proposed method uses the second-order uncertainties as a norm on the FMT parameter space to identify the closest member of the hypothetical rupture set and to test whether this closest member is an adequate representation of the observed event. Finally, we address the aftershock excitation problem: given a mainshock, what is the spatial distribution of aftershock probabilities? The FMT representation allows us to generalize the models typically used for this purpose (e.g., marked point process models, such as ETAS), which will again be necessary in operational earthquake forecasting. To quantify aftershock probabilities, we compare mainshock FMTs with the first and second spatial moments of weighted aftershock hypocenters. We will describe applications of these results to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3, which is now under development by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

Aftershocks to Philippine quake found within nearby megathrust fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2013-02-01

On 31 August 2012 a magnitude 7.6 earthquake ruptured deep beneath the sea floor of the Philippine Trench, a powerful intraplate earthquake centered seaward of the plate boundary. In the wake of the main shock, sensors detected a flurry of aftershocks, counting 110 in total. Drawing on seismic wave observations and rupture mechanisms calculated for the aftershocks, Ye et al. found that many were located near the epicenter of the main intraplate quake but at shallower depth; all involved normal faulting. Some shallow thrusting aftershocks were located farther to the west, centered within the potentially dangerous megathrust fault formed by the subduction of the Philippine Sea plate beneath the Philippine microplate, the piece of crust housing the Philippine Islands.

The 2016 south Alboran earthquake (Mw = 6.4): A reactivation of the Ibero-Maghrebian region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buforn, E.; Pro, C.; Sanz de Galdeano, C.; Cantavella, J. V.; Cesca, S.; Caldeira, B.; Udías, A.; Mattesini, M.

2017-08-01

On 25 January 2016, an earthquake of magnitude Mw = 6.4 occurred at the southern part of the Alboran Sea, between southern Spain and northern Morocco. This shock was preceded by a foreshock (Mw = 5.1) and followed by a long aftershock sequence. Focal mechanism of main shock has been estimated from slip inversion of body waves at teleseismic distances. Solution corresponds to left-lateral strike-slip motion, showing a complex bilateral rupture, formed by two sub-events, with most energy propagating along a plane oriented N30°E plane dipping to the NW. Relocation of larger events of the aftershock series, show two alignments of epicentres in NE-SW and NNE-SSW direction that intersect at the epicentre of the main shock. We have estimated the focal mechanisms of the largest aftershocks from moment tensor inversion at regional distances. We have obtained two families of focal mechanisms corresponding to strike slip for the NNE-SSW alignment and thrusting motion for the NE-SW alignment. Among the faults present in the area the Al Idrisi fault (or fault zone) may be a good candidate for the source of this earthquake. The study of Coulomb Failure Stress shows that it is possible that the 2016 earthquake was triggered by the previous nearby earthquakes of 1994 (Mw = 5.8) and 2004 (Mw = 6.3). The possible seismic reactivation of the central part of the Ibero-Maghrebian region is an open question, but it is clear that the occurrence of the 2016 earthquake confirms that from 1994 the seismicity of central part of IMR is increasing and that focal mechanism of largest earthquakes in this central part correspond to complex ruptures (or zone of fault).

Repeating Earthquakes Following an Mw 4.4 Earthquake Near Luther, Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clements, T.; Keranen, K. M.; Savage, H. M.

2015-12-01

An Mw 4.4 earthquake on April 16, 2013 near Luther, OK was one of the earliest M4+ earthquakes in central Oklahoma, following the Prague sequence in 2011. A network of four local broadband seismometers deployed within a day of the Mw 4.4 event, along with six Oklahoma netquake stations, recorded more than 500 aftershocks in the two weeks following the Luther earthquake. Here we use HypoDD (Waldhauser & Ellsworth, 2000) and waveform cross-correlation to obtain precise aftershock locations. The location uncertainty, calculated using the SVD method in HypoDD, is ~15 m horizontally and ~ 35 m vertically. The earthquakes define a near vertical, NE-SW striking fault plane. Events occur at depths from 2 km to 3.5 km within the granitic basement, with a small fraction of events shallower, near the sediment-basement interface. Earthquakes occur within a zone of ~200 meters thickness on either side of the best-fitting fault surface. We use an equivalency class algorithm to identity clusters of repeating events, defined as event pairs with median three-component correlation > 0.97 across common stations (Aster & Scott, 1993). Repeating events occur as doublets of only two events in over 50% of cases; overall, 41% of earthquakes recorded occur as repeating events. The recurrence intervals for the repeating events range from minutes to days, with common recurrence intervals of less than two minutes. While clusters occur in tight dimensions, commonly of 80 m x 200 m, aftershocks occur in 3 distinct ~2km x 2km-sized patches along the fault. Our analysis suggests that with rapidly deployed local arrays, the plethora of ~Mw 4 earthquakes occurring in Oklahoma and Southern Kansas can be used to investigate the earthquake rupture process and the role of damage zones.

Some characteristics of the complex El Mayor-Cucapah, MW7.2, April 4, 2010, Baja California, Mexico, earthquake, from well-located aftershock data from local and regional networks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frez, J.; Nava Pichardo, F. A.; Acosta, J.; Munguia, L.; Carlos, J.; García, R.

2015-12-01

Aftershocks from the El Mayor-Cucapah (EMC), MW7.2, April 4, 2010, Baja California, Mexico, earthquake, were recorded over two months by a 31 station local array (Reftek RT130 seismographs loaned from IRIS-PASSCAL), complemented by regional data from SCSN, and CICESE. The resulting data base includes 518 aftershocks with ML ≥ 3.0, plus 181 smaller events. Reliable hypocenters were determined using HYPODD and a velocity structure determined from refraction data for a mesa located to the west of the Mexicali-Imperial Valley. Aftershock hypocenters show that the El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake was a multiple event comprising two or three different ruptures of which the last one constituted the main event. The main event rupture, which extends in a roughly N45°W direction, is complex with well-defined segments having different characteristics. The main event central segment, located close to the first event epicenter is roughly vertical, the northwest segment dips ~68°NE, while the two southeast segments dip ~60°SW and ~52°SW, respectively, which agrees with results of previous studies based on teleseismic long periods and on GPS-INSAR. All main rupture aftershock hypocenters have depths above 10-11km and, except for the central segment, they delineate the edges of zones with largest coseismic displacement. The two southern segments show seismicity concentrated below 5km and 3.5km, respectively; the paucity of shallow seismicity may be caused by the thick layer of non-consolidated sediments in this region. The ruptures delineated by aftershocks in the southern regions correspond to the Indiviso fault, unidentified until the occurrence of the EMC earthquake. The first event was relocated together with the aftershocks; the epicenter lies slightly westwards of published locations, but it definitely does not lie on, or close to, the main rupture. The focal mechanism of the first event, based on first arrival polarities, is predominantly strike-slip; the focal plane coinciding with neighboring aftershocks has N13°E and left-lateral slip. From the above, we conclude that the EMC earthquake consisted of a first event that triggered the main right-lateral strike-slip rupture and probably another rupture indicated by a NS trending aftershock alignment.

Deformation along the western Indian plate boundary: new constraints from differential and multi-aperture InSAR data inversion for the 2008, Baluchistan (Western Pakistan) seismic sequence.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pezzo, Giuseppe; Merryman Boncori, John Peter; Atzori, Simone; Antonioli, Andrea; Salvi, Stefano

2014-05-01

We use Synthetic Aperture Radar Differential Interferometry (DInSAR) and Multi-Aperture Interferometry (MAI) to constrain the sources of the three largest events of the 2008 Baluchistan (western Pakistan) seismic sequence, namely two Mw 6.4 events only 12 hours apart and an Mw 5.7event occurred 40 days later. The sequence took place in the Quetta Syntaxis, the most seismically active region of Baluchistan, tectonically located between the colliding Indian Plate and the Afghan block of the Eurasian Plate. Elastic dislocation modelling of the surface displacements, derived from ascending and descending ENVISAT ASAR acquisitions, yields slip distributions with peak values of 80 cm and 70 cm for the two main events on a pair of strike-slip near-vertical faults, and values up to 50 cm for the largest aftershock on a NE-SW strike-slip fault. The MAI measurements, with their high sensitivity to the north-south motion component, are crucial in this area to resolve the fault plane ambiguity of moment tensors. We also studied the relationships between the largest earthquakes of the sequence by means of the Coulomb Failure Function to verify the agreement of our source modelling with the stress variations induced by the October 28 earthquake on the October 29 fault plane, and the stress variations induced by the two mainshocks on the December 09 fault plane. Our results provide insight into the deformation style of the Quetta Syntaxis, suggesting that right-lateral slip released at intermediate depths on large NW fault planes is compatible with contemporaneous left-lateral activation on NE-SW minor faults at shallower depths, in agreement with a bookshelf deformation mechanism.

The 26 May 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake fault observed by seismic data and satellite data based surface features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggraini, Ade; Sobiesiak, Monika; Walter, Thomas R.

2010-05-01

The Mw 6.3 May 26, 2006 Yogyakarta Earthquake caused severe damage and claimed thousands lives in the Yogyakarta Special Province and Klaten District of Central Java Province. The nearby Opak River fault was thought to be the source of this earthquake disaster. However, no significant surface movement was observed along the fault which could confirm that this fault was really the source of the earthquake. To investigate the earthquake source and to understand the earthquake mechanism, a rapid response team of the German Task Force for Earthquake, together with the Seismological Division of Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika and Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, had installed a temporary seismic network of 12 short period seismometers. More than 3000 aftershocks were recorded during the 3-month campaign. Here we present the result of several hundred processed aftershocks. We used integrated software package GIANTPitsa to pick P and S phases manually and HYPO71 to determine the hypocenters. HypoDD software was used for hypocenters relocation to obtain high precision aftershock locations. Our aftershock distribution shows a system of lineaments in southwest-northeast direction, about 10 km east to Opak River fault, at 5-18 km depth. The b-value map from the aftershocks shows that the main lineaments have relatively low b-value at the middle part which suggests this part is still under stress. We also observe several aftershock clusters cutting these lineaments in nearly perpendicular direction. To verify the interpretation of our aftershocks analysis, we will overlay it on surface feature we delineate from satellite data. Hopefully our result will give significant contribution to understand the near surface fault systems around Yogyakarta Area in order to mitigate similar earthquake hazard in the future.

Characteristics of Gyeongju earthquake, moment magnitude 5.5 and relative relocations of aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, ChangSoo; Son, Minkyung

2017-04-01

There is low seismicity in the korea peninsula. According historical record in the historic book, There were several strong earthquake in the korea peninsula. Especially in Gyeongju of capital city of the Silla dynasty, few strong earthquakes caused the fatalities of several hundreds people 1,300 years ago and damaged the houses and make the wall of castles collapsed. Moderate strong earthquake of moment magnitude 5.5 hit the city in September 12, 2016. Over 1000 aftershocks were detected. The numbers of occurrences of aftershock over time follows omori's law well. The distribution of relative locations of 561 events using clustering aftershocks by cross-correlation between P and S waveform of the events showed the strike NNE 25 30 o and dip 68 74o of fault plane to cause the earthquake matched with the fault plane solution of moment tensor inversion well. The depth of range of the events is from 11km to 16km. The width of distribution of event locations is about 5km length. The direction of maximum horizontal stress by inversion of stress for the moment solutions of main event and large aftershocks is similar to the known maximum horizontal stress direction of the korea peninsula. The relation curves between moment magnitude and local magnitude of aftershocks shows that the moment magnitude increases slightly more for events of size less than 2.0

Spatial-temporal evolutions of early aftershocks following the 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake in Sichuan, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jing; Yao, Dongdong; Meng, Xiaofeng; Peng, Zhigang; Su, Jinrong; Long, Feng

2017-04-01

We perform a comprehensive detection of early aftershocks following the 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake, which occurred in the southern Longmenshan Fault Zone in Sichuan Province, China, about 5 years after the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. We use events in both standard and relocated catalogs as templates to scan through continuous waveforms 2 days before and 3 days after the main shock. We successfully reduce the magnitude of completeness Mc by more than 1 order and obtain up to 6 times more events than listed in both catalogs. Aftershocks in the first hour mostly occur around the main shock slip region, and aftershocks at later times show systematic expansions in the along-strike, perpendicular-strike, and updip directions. Although postseismic deformation following the Lushan main shock has not been clearly identified, we suggest that early aftershock expansions are likely driven by afterslip of the Lushan main shock. This is consistent with the observations that most aftershocks were in the stress shadow of the Lushan main shock and that there was significant slip deficit in the top 10 km of the crust. We also find that seismicity on the back thrust fault was activated as soon as 20 min after the main shock, earlier than previously reported. We are unable to detect any clear foreshocks in the last 2 days before the Lushan main shock.

A stochastic estimate of ground motion at Oceano, California, for the M 6.5 22 December 2003 San Simeon earthquake, derived from aftershock recordings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Di, Alessandro C.; Boatwright, J.

2006-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey deployed a digital seismic station in Oceano, California, in February 2004, to investigate the cause of damage and liquefaction from the 22 December 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon earthquake. This station recorded 11 M > 2.8 aftershocks in almost 8 weeks. We analyze these recordings, together with recordings of the mainshock and the same aftershocks obtained from nearby stations in Park Hill and San Luis Obispo, to estimate the mainshock ground motion in Oceano. We estimate the Fourier amplitude spectrum using generalized spectral ratio analysis. We test a set of aftershocks as Green's functions by comparing simulated and recorded acceleration amplitude spectra for the mainshock at San Luis Obispo and Park Hill. We convolve the aftershock accelerograms with a stochastic operator to simulate the duration and phase of the mainshock accelerograms. This approximation allows us to extend the range of aftershocks that can be used as Green's functions to events nearly three magnitude units smaller than the mainshock. Our realizations for the mainshock accelerogram at Oceano yield peak ground accelerations distributed as 28% ?? 4%g. We interpret these realizations as upper bounds for the actual ground motion, because our analysis assumes a linear response, whereas the presence of liquefaction indicates that the ground behaved nonlinearly in Oceano.

Continuing Megathrust Earthquake Potential in northern Chile after the 2014 Iquique Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, G. P.; Herman, M. W.; Barnhart, W. D.; Furlong, K. P.; Riquelme, S.; Benz, H.; Bergman, E.; Barrientos, S. E.; Earle, P. S.; Samsonov, S. V.

2014-12-01

The seismic gap theory, which identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison to other portions of a fault, has successfully explained past earthquakes and is useful for qualitatively describing where future large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile, which until recently had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M~8.8 event in 1877. On April 1 2014, a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this northern Chile seismic gap, offshore of the city of Iquique; the size and spatial extent of the rupture indicate it was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Here, we present a rapid assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 seismic sequence offshore northern Chile, including analyses of earthquake (fore- and aftershock) relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations, and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer calculations over the duration of the sequence. This ensemble of information allows us to place the current sequence within the context of historic seismicity in the region, and to assess areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results indicate that while accumulated strain has been released for a portion of the northern Chile seismic gap, significant sections have not ruptured in almost 150 years. These observations suggest that large-to-great sized megathrust earthquakes will occur north and south of the 2014 Iquique sequence sooner than might be expected had the 2014 events ruptured the entire seismic gap.

Frictional constraints on crustal faulting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boatwright, J.; Cocco, M.

1996-01-01

We consider how variations in fault frictional properties affect the phenomenology of earthquake faulting. In particular, we propose that lateral variations in fault friction produce the marked heterogeneity of slip observed in large earthquakes. We model these variations using a rate- and state-dependent friction law, where we differentiate velocity-weakening behavior into two fields: the strong seismic field is very velocity weakening and the weak seismic field is slightly velocity weakening. Similarly, we differentiate velocity-strengthening behavior into two fields: the compliant field is slightly velocity strengthening and the viscous field is very velocity strengthening. The strong seismic field comprises the seismic slip concentrations, or asperities. The two "intermediate" fields, weak seismic and compliant, have frictional velocity dependences that are close to velocity neutral: these fields modulate both the tectonic loading and the dynamic rupture process. During the interseismic period, the weak seismic and compliant regions slip aseismically, while the strong seismic regions remain locked, evolving into stress concentrations that fail only in main shocks. The weak seismic areas exhibit most of the interseismic activity and aftershocks but can also creep seismically. This "mixed" frictional behavior can be obtained from a sufficiently heterogenous distribution of the critical slip distance. The model also provides a mechanism for rupture arrest: dynamic rupture fronts decelerate as they penetrate into unloaded complaint or weak seismic areas, producing broad areas of accelerated afterslip. Aftershocks occur on both the weak seismic and compliant areas around a fault, but most of the stress is diffused through aseismic slip. Rapid afterslip on these peripheral areas can also produce aftershocks within the main shock rupture area by reloading weak fault areas that slipped in the main shock and then healed. We test this frictional model by comparing the seismicity and the coseismic slip for the 1966 Parkfield, 1979 Coyote Lake, and 1984 Morgan Hill earthquakes. The interevent seismicity and aftershocks appear to occur on fault areas outside the regions of significant slip: these regions are interpreted as either weak seismic or compliant, depending on whether or not they manifest interevent seismicity.

Seismic source study of the Racha-Dzhava (Georgia) earthquake from aftershocks and broad-band teleseismic body-wave records: An example of active nappe tectonics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuenzalida, H.; Rivera, L.; Haessler, H.; Legrand, D.; Philip, H.; Dorbath, L.; McCormack, D.; Arefiev, S.; Langer, C.; Cisternas, A.

1997-01-01

The Racha-Dzhava earthquake (Ms = 7.0) that occurred on 1991 April 29 at 09:12:48.1 GMT in the southern border of the Great Caucasus is the biggest event ever recorded in the region, stronger than the Spitak earthquake (Ms = 6.9) of 1988. A field expedition to the epicentral area was organised and a temporary seismic network of 37 stations was deployed to record the aftershock activity. A very precise image of the aftershock distribution is obtained, showing an elongated cloud oriented N105??, with one branch trending N310?? in the western part. The southernmost part extends over 80 km, with the depth ranging from 0 to 15 km, and dips north. The northern branch, which is about 30 km long, shows activity that ranges in depth from 5 to 15 km. The complex thrust dips northwards. A stress-tensor inversion from P-wave first-motion polarities shows a state of triaxial compression, with the major principal axis oriented roughly N-S, the minor principal axis being vertical. Body-waveform inversion of teleseismic seismograms was performed for the main shock, which can be divided into four subevents with a total rupture-time duration of 22 s. The most important part of the seismic moment was released by a gentle northerly dipping thrust. The model is consistent with the compressive tectonics of the region and is in agreement with the aftershock distribution and the stress tensor deduced from the aftershocks. The focal mechanisms of the three largest aftershocks were also inverted from body-wave records. The April 29th (Ms = 6.1) and May 5th (Ms = 5.4) aftershocks have thrust mechanisms on roughly E-W-oriented planes, similar to the main shock. Surprisingly, the June 15th (Ms = 6.2) aftershock shows a thrust fault striking N-S. This mechanism is explained by the structural control of the rupture along the east-dipping geometry of the Dzirula Massif close to the Borzhomi-Kazbeg strike-slip fault. In fact, the orientation and shape of the stress tensor produce a thrust on a N-S oriented plane. Nappe tectonics has been identified as an important feature in the Caucasus, and the source mechanism is consistent with this observation. A hidden fault is present below the nappe, and no large surface breaks were observed due to the main shock. The epicentral region is characterized by sediments that are trapped between two crystalline basements: the Dzirula Massif, which crops out south of Chiatoura, and the Caucasus Main Range north of Oni. Most, if not all, of the rupture is controlled by the thrusting of overlapping, deformed and folded sediments over the Dzirula Massif. This event is another example of blind active faults, with the distinctive feature that the fault plane dips at a gentle angle. The Racha Range is one of the surface expressions of this blind thrust, and its growth is the consequence and evidence of similar earthquakes in the past.

Relationship between large slip area and static stress drop of aftershocks of inland earthquake :Example of the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urano, S.; Hiramatsu, Y.; Yamada, T.

2013-12-01

The 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake (MJMA 6.9; hereafter referred to the main shock) occurred at 0:41(UTC) on March 25, 2007 at a depth of 11km beneath the west coast of Noto Peninsula, central Japan. The dominant slip of the main shock was on a reverse fault with a right-lateral slip and the large slip area was distributed from hypocenter to the shallow part on the fault plane (Horikawa, 2008). The aftershocks are distributed not only in the small slip area but also in the large slip area (Hiramatsu et al., 2011). In this study, we estimate static stress drops of aftershocks on the fault plane of the main shock. We discuss the relationship between the static stress drops of the aftershocks and the large slip area of the main shock by investigating spatial pattern of the values of the static stress drops. We use the waveform data obtained by the group for the joint aftershock observations of the 2007 Noto Hanto Earthquake (Sakai et al., 2007). The sampling frequency of the waveform data is 100 Hz or 200 Hz. Focusing on similar aftershocks reported by Hiramatsu et al. (2011), we analyze static stress drops by using the method of empirical Green's function (EGF) (Hough, 1997) as follows. The smallest earthquake (MJMA≥2.0) of each group of similar earthquakes is set to the EGF earthquake, and the largest earthquake (MJMA≥2.5) is set to the target earthquake. We then deconvolve the waveform of an interested earthquake with that of the EGF earthquake at each station and obtain the spectral ratio of the sources that cancels the propagation effects (path and site effects). Following the procedure of Yamada et al. (2010), we finally estimate static stress drops for P- and S-waves from corner frequencies of the spectral ratio by using a model of Madariaga (1976). The estimated average value of static stress drop is 8.2×1.3 MPa (8.6×2.2 MPa for P-wave and 7.8×1.3 MPa for S-wave). These values are coincident approximately with the static stress drop of aftershocks of other inland earthquakes in Japan (Ito et al., 2005; Iio et al., 2006) and independent of the seismic moment. We then compare the values with the coseismic slip distribution of the main shock reported by Horikawa (2008). If we define large slip areas as areas with a slip exceeding 1 m, the average value of static stress drop is 12×2.3 (MPa) in the area. On the other hand, the average value is 5.7×0.9 (MPa) outside the large slip area. These results suggest that aftershocks in the large slip area likely have larger values of static stress drop, which would reflect the spatial heterogeneity of shear strength and dynamic stress level. Our results are coincident with the result of Yamada et al. (2010).

The source parameters, surface deformation and tectonic setting of three recent earthquakes: thessalonki (Greece), tabas-e-golshan (iran) and carlisle (u.k.).

PubMed

King, G; Soufleris, C; Berberian, M

1981-03-01

Abstract- Three earthquakes have been studied. These are the Thessaloniki earthquake of 20th June 1978 (Ms = 6.4, Normal faulting), the Tabase-Golshan earthquake of 16th September 1978 (Ms = 7.7 Thrust faulting) and the Carlisle earth-quake of 26th December 1979 (Mb = 5.0, Thrust faulting). The techniques employed to determine source parameters included field studies of SUP face deformation, fault breaks, locations of locally recorded aftershocks and teleseismic studies including joint hypocentral location, first motion methods and waveform modelling. It is clear that these techniques applied together provide more information than the same methods used separately. The moment of the Thessaloniki earthquake determined teleseismically (Force moment 5.2 times 10(25) dyne cm. Geometric moment 1.72 times 10(8) m(3) ) is an order of magnitude greater than that determined using field data (surface ruptures and aftershock depths) (Force moment 4.5 times 10(24) dyne cm. Geometric moment 0.16 times 10(8) m(3) ). It is concluded that for this earthquake the surface rupture only partly reflects the processes on the main rupture plane. This view i s supported by a distribution of aftershocks and damage which extends well outside the region of ground rupture. However, the surface breaks consistently have the same slip vector direction as the fault plane solutions suggesting that they are in this respect related to to the main faulting and are not superficial slumping. Both field studies and waveform studies suggest a low stress drop which may explain the relatively little damage and loss of life as a result of the Thessaloniki earthquake. In contrast, the teleseismic moment of the Tabas-e-Golshan earthquake (Force moment 4.4 times 10(26) dyne cm. Geometric moment 1.5 times 10(9) m(3) ) is similar t o that determined from field studies (Force moment 10.2 times 10(26) dyne cm. Geometric moment 3.4 times 10(9) m(3) ) and the damage and after-shock distributions clearly relate to the surface faulting. It h a s also been observed that high aftershock activity appears beneath gaps in the surface rupture system. The Carlisle earthquake (Force moment 9 times 10(23) dyne cm. Geometric moment 3 times 10(6) m(3) ) produced no surface ruptures. However, dislocation model-ling suggests that surface deformation will be visible on a first order levelling line which passes very close t o the epicentre. A well controlled fault plane solution, the first in the British Isles, derived from an aftershock study shows north-south compression. All three studied earthquakes occurred along major faults which had been reactivated in geological times. The fault on which the Tabas-e-Golshan earthquake occurred could have been identified a s active from evidence of Quaternary motion and previous smaller earthquakes. However, there were no perceptible events in the 12 months preceeding the catastrophic earthquake. In both Thessaloniki and Carlisle, significant foreshocks did occur within 6 months prior to the main shock*

On near-source earthquake triggering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.; Velasco, A.A.

2009-01-01

When one earthquake triggers others nearby, what connects them? Two processes are observed: static stress change from fault offset and dynamic stress changes from passing seismic waves. In the near-source region (r ??? 50 km for M ??? 5 sources) both processes may be operating, and since both mechanisms are expected to raise earthquake rates, it is difficult to isolate them. We thus compare explosions with earthquakes because only earthquakes cause significant static stress changes. We find that large explosions at the Nevada Test Site do not trigger earthquakes at rates comparable to similar magnitude earthquakes. Surface waves are associated with regional and long-range dynamic triggering, but we note that surface waves with low enough frequency to penetrate to depths where most aftershocks of the 1992 M = 5.7 Little Skull Mountain main shock occurred (???12 km) would not have developed significant amplitude within a 50-km radius. We therefore focus on the best candidate phases to cause local dynamic triggering, direct waves that pass through observed near-source aftershock clusters. We examine these phases, which arrived at the nearest (200-270 km) broadband station before the surface wave train and could thus be isolated for study. Direct comparison of spectral amplitudes of presurface wave arrivals shows that M ??? 5 explosions and earthquakes deliver the same peak dynamic stresses into the near-source crust. We conclude that a static stress change model can readily explain observed aftershock patterns, whereas it is difficult to attribute near-source triggering to a dynamic process because of the dearth of aftershocks near large explosions.

Strategic crisis and risk communication during a prolonged natural hazard event: lessons learned from the Canterbury earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wein, A. M.; Potter, S.; Becker, J.; Doyle, E. E.; Jones, J. L.

2015-12-01

While communication products are developed for monitoring and forecasting hazard events, less thought may have been given to crisis and risk communication plans. During larger (and rarer) events responsible science agencies may find themselves facing new and intensified demands for information and unprepared for effectively resourcing communications. In a study of the communication of aftershock information during the 2010-12 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (New Zealand), issues are identified and implications for communication strategy noted. Communication issues during the responses included reliability and timeliness of communication channels for immediate and short decision time frames; access to scientists by those who needed information; unfamiliar emergency management frameworks; information needs of multiple audiences, audience readiness to use the information; and how best to convey empathy during traumatic events and refer to other information sources about what to do and how to cope. Other science communication challenges included meeting an increased demand for earthquake education, getting attention on aftershock forecasts; responding to rumor management; supporting uptake of information by critical infrastructure and government and for the application of scientific information in complex societal decisions; dealing with repetitive information requests; addressing diverse needs of multiple audiences for scientific information; and coordinating communications within and outside the science domain. For a science agency, a communication strategy would consider training scientists in communication, establishing relationships with university scientists and other disaster communication roles, coordinating messages, prioritizing audiences, deliberating forecasts with community leaders, identifying user needs and familiarizing them with the products ahead of time, and practicing the delivery and use of information via scenario planning and exercises.

Results of a Study Demonstrating Automated Techniques for Waveform Correlation Applied to Regional Monitoring of Eastern Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundermier, A.; Slinkard, M.; Perry, J.; Schaff, D. P.; Young, C. J.; Richards, P. G.

2016-12-01

Waveform correlation techniques have proven effectiveness detecting repeated events from large aftershock sequences; however, application for monitoring a large region over a long time period has yet to be adequately explored. We applied waveform correlation to six years of continuous waveform data at eleven stations spread through Eastern Asia, using automatically generated templates from historical archives going back to the time of station installation, in some cases as far back as 1986. Our study region includes the countries of China, North Korea, South Korea, Mongolia, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and parts of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, and Vietnam. We used nine China Digital Network (CD/IC) and two other available stations which had continuous coverage from 2006-2012; this yielded 11 stations which spanned 40 degrees in latitude and 70 degrees in longitude with an average nearest-neighbor distance between stations of 842 km. To declare a detected event, we require coincident correlations at 2 or more stations, so station spacing has a strong effect on our detection threshold. We compare our detection results to the ISC catalog to analyze the effectiveness and challenges associated with applying waveform correlation on a broad regional and multi-year scale. Our best results were obtained in the vicinity of the 2008 Wenchuan aftershock sequence where each station had two other stations within a 1000 km radius. We include analysis of the impact of network geometry, historical template library span and size, and template phase to provide direction for future regional studies using waveform correlation.

The smart cluster method. Adaptive earthquake cluster identification and analysis in strong seismic regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, Andreas M.; Daniell, James E.; Wenzel, Friedemann

2017-07-01

Earthquake clustering is an essential part of almost any statistical analysis of spatial and temporal properties of seismic activity. The nature of earthquake clusters and subsequent declustering of earthquake catalogues plays a crucial role in determining the magnitude-dependent earthquake return period and its respective spatial variation for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. This study introduces the Smart Cluster Method (SCM), a new methodology to identify earthquake clusters, which uses an adaptive point process for spatio-temporal cluster identification. It utilises the magnitude-dependent spatio-temporal earthquake density to adjust the search properties, subsequently analyses the identified clusters to determine directional variation and adjusts its search space with respect to directional properties. In the case of rapid subsequent ruptures like the 1992 Landers sequence or the 2010-2011 Darfield-Christchurch sequence, a reclassification procedure is applied to disassemble subsequent ruptures using near-field searches, nearest neighbour classification and temporal splitting. The method is capable of identifying and classifying earthquake clusters in space and time. It has been tested and validated using earthquake data from California and New Zealand. A total of more than 1500 clusters have been found in both regions since 1980 with M m i n = 2.0. Utilising the knowledge of cluster classification, the method has been adjusted to provide an earthquake declustering algorithm, which has been compared to existing methods. Its performance is comparable to established methodologies. The analysis of earthquake clustering statistics lead to various new and updated correlation functions, e.g. for ratios between mainshock and strongest aftershock and general aftershock activity metrics.

A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward; Jordan, Thomas H.; Page, Morgan T.; Milner, Kevin R.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Dawson, Timothy E.; Biasi, Glenn; Parsons, Thomas E.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Weldon, Ray; Powers, Peter; Johnson, Kaj M.; Zeng, Yuehua; Bird, Peter; Felzer, Karen; van der Elst, Nicholas; Madden, Christopher; Arrowsmith, Ramon; Werner, Maximillan J.; Thatcher, Wayne R.

2017-01-01

Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake‐clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short‐term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault‐based models: long‐term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg–Richter scaling, and short‐term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound.

A change in fault-plane orientation between foreshocks and aftershocks of the Galway Lake earthquake, ML = 5.2, 1975, Mojave desert, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuis, G.S.; Lindh, A.G.

1979-01-01

A marked change is observed in P/SV amplitude ratios, measured at station TPC, from foreshocks to aftershocks of the Galway Lake earthquake. This change is interpreted to be the result of a change in fault-plane orientation occurring between foreshocks and aftershocks. The Galway Lake earthquake, ML= 5.2, occurred on June 1, 1975. The first-motion fault-plane solutions for the main shock and most foreshocks and aftershocks indicate chiefly right-lateral strike-slip on NNW-striking planes that dip steeply, 70-90??, to the WSW. The main event was preceded by nine located foreshocks, ranging in magnitude from 1.9 to 3.4, over a period of 12 weeks, starting on March 9, 1975. All of the foreshocks form a tight cluster approximately 1 km in diameter. This cluster includes the main shock. Aftershocks are distributed over a 6-km-long fault zone, but only those that occurred inside the foreshock cluster are used in this study. Seismograms recorded at TPC (?? = 61 km), PEC (?? = 93 km), and CSP (?? = 83 km) are the data used here. The seismograms recorded at TPC show very consistent P/SV amplitude ratios for foreshocks. For aftershocks the P/SV ratios are scattered, but generally quite different from foreshock ratios. Most of the scatter for the aftershocks is confined to the two days following the main shock. Thereafter, however, the P/SV ratios are consistently half as large as for foreshocks. More subtle (and questionable) changes in the P/SV ratios are observed at PEC and CSP. Using theoretical P/SV amplitude ratios, one can reproduce the observations at TPC, PEC and CSP by invoking a 5-12?? counterclockwise change in fault strike between foreshocks and aftershocks. This interpretation is not unique, but it fits the data better than invoking, for example, changes in dip or slip angle. First-motion data cannot resolve this small change, but they permit it. Attenuation changes would appear to be ruled out by the fact that changes in the amplitude ratios, PTPC/PPEC and ptpc/pcsp, are observed, and these changes accompany the changes in P/SV. Observations for the Galway Lake earthquake are similar to observations for the Oroville, California, earthquake (ML = 5.7) of August 1, 1975, and the Brianes Hills, California, earthquake (ML = 4.3) of January 8, 1977 (Lindh et al., Science Vol. 201, pp. 56-59). A change in fault-plane orientation between foreshocks and aftershocks may be understandable in terms of early en-echelon cracking (foreshocks) giving way to shear on the main fault plane (main shock plus aftershocks). Recent laboratory data (Byerlee et al., Tectonophysics, Vol. 44, pp. 161-171) tend to support this view. ?? 1979.

Earthquakes, July-August 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, W.J.

1992-01-01

There were two major earthquakes (7.0≤M<8.0) during this reporting period. A magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred in Kyrgyzstan on August 19 and a magnitude 7.0 quake struck the Ascension Island region on August 28. In southern California, aftershocks of the magnitude 7.6 earthquake on June 28, 1992, continued. One of these aftershocks caused damage and injuries, and at least one other aftershock caused additional damage. Earthquake-related fatalities were reportred in Kyrgzstan and Pakistan. 

Omori's law in the Internet traffic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, S.; Suzuki, N.

2003-03-01

The Internet is a complex system, whose temporal behavior is highly nonstationary and exhibits sudden drastic changes regarded as main shocks or catastrophes. Here, analyzing a set of time series data of round-trip time measured in echo experiment with the Ping Command, the property of "aftershocks" (i.e., catastrophes of smaller scales) after a main shock is studied. It is found that the aftershocks obey Omori's law. Thus, the Internet shares with earthquakes and financial-market crashes a common scale-invariant feature in the temporal patterns of aftershocks.

Delayed seismicity rate changes controlled by static stress transfer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kroll, Kayla A.; Richards-Dinger, Keith B.; Dieterich, James H.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

2017-01-01

On 15 June 2010, a Mw5.7 earthquake occurred near Ocotillo, California, in the Yuha Desert. This event was the largest aftershock of the 4 April 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (EMC) earthquake in this region. The EMC mainshock and subsequent Ocotillo aftershock provide an opportunity to test the Coulomb failure hypothesis (CFS). We explore the spatiotemporal correlation between seismicity rate changes and regions of positive and negative CFS change imparted by the Ocotillo event. Based on simple CFS calculations we divide the Yuha Desert into three subregions, one triggering zone and two stress shadow zones. We find the nominal triggering zone displays immediate triggering, one stress shadowed region experiences immediate quiescence, and the other nominal stress shadow undergoes an immediate rate increase followed by a delayed shutdown. We quantitatively model the spatiotemporal variation of earthquake rates by combining calculations of CFS change with the rate-state earthquake rate formulation of Dieterich (1994), assuming that each subregion contains a mixture of nucleation sources that experienced a CFS change of differing signs. Our modeling reproduces the observations, including the observed delay in the stress shadow effect in the third region following the Ocotillo aftershock. The delayed shadow effect occurs because of intrinsic differences in the amplitude of the rate response to positive and negative stress changes and the time constants for return to background rates for the two populations. We find that rate-state models of time-dependent earthquake rates are in good agreement with the observed rates and thus explain the complex spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity.

Delayed Seismicity Rate Changes Controlled by Static Stress Transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroll, Kayla A.; Richards-Dinger, Keith B.; Dieterich, James H.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

2017-10-01

On 15 June 2010, a Mw5.7 earthquake occurred near Ocotillo, California, in the Yuha Desert. This event was the largest aftershock of the 4 April 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (EMC) earthquake in this region. The EMC mainshock and subsequent Ocotillo aftershock provide an opportunity to test the Coulomb failure hypothesis (CFS). We explore the spatiotemporal correlation between seismicity rate changes and regions of positive and negative CFS change imparted by the Ocotillo event. Based on simple CFS calculations we divide the Yuha Desert into three subregions, one triggering zone and two stress shadow zones. We find the nominal triggering zone displays immediate triggering, one stress shadowed region experiences immediate quiescence, and the other nominal stress shadow undergoes an immediate rate increase followed by a delayed shutdown. We quantitatively model the spatiotemporal variation of earthquake rates by combining calculations of CFS change with the rate-state earthquake rate formulation of Dieterich (1994), assuming that each subregion contains a mixture of nucleation sources that experienced a CFS change of differing signs. Our modeling reproduces the observations, including the observed delay in the stress shadow effect in the third region following the Ocotillo aftershock. The delayed shadow effect occurs because of intrinsic differences in the amplitude of the rate response to positive and negative stress changes and the time constants for return to background rates for the two populations. We find that rate-state models of time-dependent earthquake rates are in good agreement with the observed rates and thus explain the complex spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity.

Tuning critical failure with viscoelasticity: How aftershocks inhibit criticality in an analytical mean field model of fracture.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baro Urbea, J.; Davidsen, J.

2017-12-01

The hypothesis of critical failure relates the presence of an ultimate stability point in the structural constitutive equation of materials to a divergence of characteristic scales in the microscopic dynamics responsible of deformation. Avalanche models involving critical failure have determined universality classes in different systems: from slip events in crystalline and amorphous materials to the jamming of granular media or the fracture of brittle materials. However, not all empirical failure processes exhibit the trademarks of critical failure. As an example, the statistical properties of ultrasonic acoustic events recorded during the failure of porous brittle materials are stationary, except for variations in the activity rate that can be interpreted in terms of aftershock and foreshock activity (J. Baró et al., PRL 2013).The rheological properties of materials introduce dissipation, usually reproduced in atomistic models as a hardening of the coarse-grained elements of the system. If the hardening is associated to a relaxation process the same mechanism is able to generate temporal correlations. We report the analytic solution of a mean field fracture model exemplifying how criticality and temporal correlations are tuned by transient hardening. We provide a physical meaning to the conceptual model by deriving the constitutive equation from the explicit representation of the transient hardening in terms of a generalized viscoelasticity model. The rate of 'aftershocks' is controlled by the temporal evolution of the viscoelastic creep. At the quasistatic limit, the moment release is invariant to rheology. Therefore, the lack of criticality is explained by the increase of the activity rate close to failure, i.e. 'foreshocks'. Finally, the avalanche propagation can be reinterpreted as a pure mathematical problem in terms of a stochastic counting process. The statistical properties depend only on the distance to a critical point, which is universal for any parametrization of the transient hardening and a whole category of fracture models.

Identifying the dynamic characteristics of a dual core-wall and frame building in Chile using aftershocks of the 27 February 2010 (Mw=8.8) Maule, Chile, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Çelebi, Mehmet; Sereci, Mark; Boroschek, Ruben; Carreño, Rodrigo; Bonelli, Patricio

2013-01-01

Following the 27 February 2010 (Mw = 8.8) Offshore Maule, Chile earthquake, a temporary, 16-channel, real-time data streaming array was installed in a recently constructed building in Viña del Mar to capture its responses to aftershocks. The cast-in-place, reinforced concrete building is 16 stories high, with 3 additional basement levels, and has dual system comprising multiple structural walls and perimeter frames. This building was not damaged during the main-shock, but other buildings of similar design in Viña del Mar and other parts of Chile were damaged, although none collapsed. Dynamic characteristics of the building identified from the low-amplitude (PGA of about 2 Gal) response recordings of aftershocks are found to compare well with those determined from modal analyses using a design level FEM model. Distinct “major-axes” translational and torsional fundamental frequencies, as well as frequencies of secondary modes, are identified. Evidence of beating is consistently observed in the response data for each earthquake. Results do not match well with U.S. code formulas.

Study of 3D P-wave Velocity Structure in Lushan Area of Yunnan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.

2017-12-01

The double difference seismic tomography method is applied to 50,711 absolute first arrival P wave arrival times and 7,294,691 high quality relative P arrival times of 5,285 events of Lushan seismic sequence to simultaneously determine the detailed crustal 3D P wave velocity structure and the hypocenter parameters in the Lushan seismic area. The results show that the front edge of aftershock in the northeast of mainshock present a spade with a steep dip angle. In the southwest of Lushan mainshock, the front edge of aftershock in low velocity zone slope gently. Our high-resolution tomographic model not only displays the general features contained in the previous models, but also reveals some new features. The Tianquan, Shuangshi and Daguan line lies in the transition zone between high velocity anomalies to the southeast and low velocity anomalies to the northwest at the ground surface. An obvious high-velocity anomaly is visible in Daxing area. With the depth increasing, Baoxing high velocity anomaly extends to Lingguan, while the southeast of the Tianquan, Shuangshi and Daguan line still shows low velocity. The high-velocity anomalies beneath Baoxing and Daxing connect each other in 10km depth, which makes the contrast between high and low velocity anomalies more sharp. Above all, the P wave velocity structure of Lushan seismic area shows obviously lateral heterogeneity. The P wave velocity anomalies represent close relationship with topographic relief and geological structure. In Baoxing area the complex rocks correspond obvious high-velocity anomalies extending down to 15km depth, while the Cenozoic rocks are correlated with low-velocity anomalies. Lushan mainshock locates at the leading edge of a low-velocity anomaly surrounded by the Baoxing and Daxing high-velocity anomalies. The main seismogenic layer dips to northwest. Meanwhile, a recoil seismic belt dips to southeast above the main seismogenic layer exists at the lower boundary of Baoxing high-velocity anomaly. A "y" distribution pattern is shown between two seismic belts.

The May 20 (MW 6.1) and 29 (MW 6.0), 2012, Emilia (Po Plain, northern Italy) earthquakes: New seismotectonic implications from subsurface geology and high-quality hypocenter location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carannante, Simona; Argnani, Andrea; Massa, Marco; D'Alema, Ezio; Lovati, Sara; Moretti, Milena; Cattaneo, Marco; Augliera, Paolo

2015-08-01

This study presents new geological and seismological data that are used to assess the seismic hazard of a sector of the Po Plain (northern Italy), a large alluvial basin hit by two strong earthquakes on May 20 (MW 6.1) and May 29 (MW 6.0), 2012. The proposed interpretation is based on high-quality relocation of 5369 earthquakes ('Emilia sequence') and a dense grid of seismic profiles and exploration wells. The analyzed seismicity was recorded by 44 seismic stations, and initially used to calibrate new one-dimensional and three-dimensional local Vp and Vs velocity models for the area. Considering these new models, the initial sparse hypocenters were then relocated in absolute mode and adjusted using the double-difference relative location algorithm. These data define a seismicity that is elongated in the W-NW to E-SE directions. The aftershocks of the May 20 mainshock appear to be distributed on a rupture surface that dips ~ 45° SSW, and the surface projection indicates an area ~ 10 km wide and 23 km long. The aftershocks of the May 29 mainshock followed a steep rupture surface that is well constrained within the investigated volume, whereby the surface projection of the blind source indicates an area ~ 6 km wide and 33 km long. Multichannel seismic profiles highlight the presence of relevant lateral variations in the structural style of the Ferrara folds that developed during the Pliocene and Pleistocene. There is also evidence of a Mesozoic extensional fault system in the Ferrara arc, with faults that in places have been seismically reactivated. These geological and seismological observations suggest that the 2012 Emilia earthquakes were related to ruptures along blind fault surfaces that are not part of the Pliocene-Pleistocene structural system, but are instead related to a deeper system that is itself closely related to re-activation of a Mesozoic extensional fault system.

Short- and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts Based on Statistical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Console, Rodolfo; Taroni, Matteo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Marzocchi, Warner

2017-04-01

The epidemic-type aftershock sequences (ETAS) models have been experimentally used to forecast the space-time earthquake occurrence rate during the sequence that followed the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake and for the 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence. These forecasts represented the two first pioneering attempts to check the feasibility of providing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) in Italy. After the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake the Italian Department of Civil Protection nominated an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF) for the development of the first official OEF in Italy that was implemented for testing purposes by the newly established "Centro di Pericolosità Sismica" (CPS, the seismic Hazard Center) at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). According to the ICEF guidelines, the system is open, transparent, reproducible and testable. The scientific information delivered by OEF-Italy is shaped in different formats according to the interested stakeholders, such as scientists, national and regional authorities, and the general public. The communication to people is certainly the most challenging issue, and careful pilot tests are necessary to check the effectiveness of the communication strategy, before opening the information to the public. With regard to long-term time-dependent earthquake forecast, the application of a newly developed simulation algorithm to Calabria region provided typical features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. These features include long-term pseudo-periodicity and clustering of strong earthquakes, and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution departing from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in the moderate and higher magnitude range.

Stress change and fault interaction from a two century-long earthquake sequence in the central Tell Atlas (Algeria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kariche, Jughurta; Meghraoui, Mustapha; Ayadi, Abdelhakim; Salah Boughacha, Mohamed

2017-04-01

We study the role and distribution of stress transfer that may trigger destructive earthquakes in the Central Tell Atlas (Algeria). A sequence of historical events reaching Ms 7.3 and related stress tensors with thrust faulting mechanisms allows the modeling of the Coulomb Failure Function (deltaCFF). We explore here the physical parameters for a stress transfer along the Tell thrust-and-fold belt taking into account an eastward trending earthquake migration from 1891 to 2003. The Computation integrated the seismicity rate in the deltaCFF computation, which is in good agreement with the migration seismicity. The stress transfer progression and increase of 0.1 to 0.8 bar are obtained on fault planes at 7-km-depth with a friction coefficient µ' 0.4 showing stress loading lobes on targeted coseismic fault zone and location of stress shadow across other thrust-and-fold regions. The Coulomb modeling suggests a distinction in earthquake triggering between zones with moderate-sized and large earthquake ruptures. Recent InSAR and levelling studies and aftershocks that document postseismic deformation of major earthquakes are integrated into the static stress change calculations. The presence of fluid and related poroelastic deformation can be considered as an open question with regards to their contribution to major earthquakes and their implications in the seismic hazard assessment of northern Algeria.

Constraining Earthquake Source Parameters in Rupture Patches and Rupture Barriers on Gofar Transform Fault, East Pacific Rise from Ocean Bottom Seismic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moyer, P. A.; Boettcher, M. S.; McGuire, J. J.; Collins, J. A.

2015-12-01

On Gofar transform fault on the East Pacific Rise (EPR), Mw ~6.0 earthquakes occur every ~5 years and repeatedly rupture the same asperity (rupture patch), while the intervening fault segments (rupture barriers to the largest events) only produce small earthquakes. In 2008, an ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) deployment successfully captured the end of a seismic cycle, including an extensive foreshock sequence localized within a 10 km rupture barrier, the Mw 6.0 mainshock and its aftershocks that occurred in a ~10 km rupture patch, and an earthquake swarm located in a second rupture barrier. Here we investigate whether the inferred variations in frictional behavior along strike affect the rupture processes of 3.0 < M < 4.5 earthquakes by determining source parameters for 100 earthquakes recorded during the OBS deployment.Using waveforms with a 50 Hz sample rate from OBS accelerometers, we calculate stress drop using an omega-squared source model, where the weighted average corner frequency is derived from an empirical Green's function (EGF) method. We obtain seismic moment by fitting the omega-squared source model to the low frequency amplitude of individual spectra and account for attenuation using Q obtained from a velocity model through the foreshock zone. To ensure well-constrained corner frequencies, we require that the Brune [1970] model provides a statistically better fit to each spectral ratio than a linear model and that the variance is low between the data and model. To further ensure that the fit to the corner frequency is not influenced by resonance of the OBSs, we require a low variance close to the modeled corner frequency. Error bars on corner frequency were obtained through a grid search method where variance is within 10% of the best-fit value. Without imposing restrictive selection criteria, slight variations in corner frequencies from rupture patches and rupture barriers are not discernable. Using well-constrained source parameters, we find an average stress drop of 5.7 MPa in the aftershock zone compared to values of 2.4 and 2.9 MPa in the foreshock and swarm zones respectively. The higher stress drops in the rupture patch compared to the rupture barriers reflect systematic differences in along strike fault zone properties on Gofar transform fault.

Aftershock locations and rupture characteristics of the 2006 May 27, Yogyakarta-Indonesia earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irwan, M.; Ando, M.; Kimata, F.; Tadokoro, K.; Nakamichi, H.; Muto, D.; Okuda, T.; Hasanuddin, A.; Mipi A., K.; Setyadji, B.; Andreas, H.; Gamal, M.; Arif, R.

2006-12-01

A strong earthquake (M6.3) rocked the Bantul district, south of Yogyakarta Special Province (DIY) on the morningof May 27, 2006. We installed a temporary array of 6 seismographs to record aftershocks of the earthquake. The area of aftershocks, which may be interpreted as mainshock ruptured area has dimensions of about 25 km length and 20 km width, in the N48E direction. At depth the seismicity mainly concentrated between 5 to 15 km. The distribution of aftershock does not appear to come very close to the surface. There is no obvious surface evidence of causative fault in this area, though we find many crack and fissures that seem to have produced by the strong ground motion. We used the orientation and size of the fault determined from our aftershock results to carry out an inversion of teleseismic data for the slip distribution. We used broad- band seismograms of the IRIS network with epicentral distances between 30 and 90 degrees. We assume a single fault plane, strike 48 degree and dip 80 degree, which is inferred from the aftershock distribution. The total seismic moment is 0.369 x 10(19) Nm with maximum slip 0.4 meters. The asperity is located about 5 km away southwest of USGS estimated epicenter. Although the distances from the seismic source to heavily damaged areas Bantul and Klaten are 10 to 50 km, soft sedimentary soil likely to have generated very damaging motions within the area.

Decay of aftershock density with distance does not indicate triggering by dynamic stress

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richards-Dinger, K.; Stein, R.S.; Toda, S.

2010-01-01

Resolving whether static or dynamic stress triggers most aftershocks and subsequent mainshocks is essential to understand earthquake interaction and to forecast seismic hazard. Felzer and Brodsky examined the distance distribution of earthquakes occurring in the first five minutes after 2 ≤ M  M  M ≥ 2 aftershocks showed a uniform power-law decay with slope −1.35 out to 50 km from the mainshocks. From this they argued that the distance decay could be explained only by dynamic triggering. Here we propose an alternative explanation for the decay, and subject their hypothesis to a series of tests, none of which it passes. At distances more than 300 m from the 2 ≤  M< 3 mainshocks, the seismicity decay 5 min before the mainshocks is indistinguishable from the decay five minutes afterwards, indicating that the mainshocks have no effect at distances outside their static triggering range. Omori temporal decay, the fundamental signature of aftershocks, is absent at distances exceeding 10 km from the mainshocks. Finally, the distance decay is found among aftershocks that occur before the arrival of the seismic wave front from the mainshock, which violates causality. We argue that Felzer and Brodsky implicitly assume that the first of two independent aftershocks along a fault rupture triggers the second, and that the first of two shocks in a creep- or intrusion-driven swarm triggers the second, when this need not be the case.

Is earthquake rate in south Iceland modified by seasonal loading?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonsson, S.; Aoki, Y.; Drouin, V.

2017-12-01

Several temporarily varying processes have the potential of modifying the rate of earthquakes in the south Iceland seismic zone, one of the two most active seismic zones in Iceland. These include solid earth tides, seasonal meteorological effects and influence from passing weather systems, and variations in snow and glacier loads. In this study we investigate the influence these processes may have on crustal stresses and stressing rates in the seismic zone and assess whether they appear to be influencing the earthquake rate. While historical earthquakes in the south Iceland have preferentially occurred in early summer, this tendency is less clear for small earthquakes. The local earthquake catalogue (going back to 1991, magnitude of completeness < 1.0) has indeed more earthquakes in summer than in winter. However, this pattern is strongly influenced by aftershock sequences of the largest M6+ earthquakes, which occurred in June 2000 and May 2008. Standard Reasenberg earthquake declustering or more involved model independent stochastic declustering algorithms are not capable of fully eliminating the aftershocks from the catalogue. We therefore inspected the catalogue for the time period before 2000 and it shows limited seasonal tendency in earthquake occurrence. Our preliminary results show no clear correlation between earthquake rates and short-term stressing variations induced from solid earth tides or passing storms. Seasonal meteorological effects also appear to be too small to influence the earthquake activity. Snow and glacier load variations induce significant vertical motions in the area with peak loading occurring in Spring (April-May) and maximum unloading in Fall (Sept.-Oct.). Early summer occurrence of historical earthquakes therefore correlates with early unloading rather than with the peak unloading or unloading rate, which appears to indicate limited influence of this seasonal process on the earthquake activity.

Reflections on Communicating Science during the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence of 2010-2011, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wein, A. M.; Berryman, K. R.; Jolly, G. E.; Brackley, H. L.; Gledhill, K. R.

2015-12-01

The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence began with the 4th September 2010 Darfield earthquake (Mw 7.1). Perhaps because there were no deaths, the mood of the city and the government was that high standards of earthquake engineering in New Zealand protected us, and there was a confident attitude to response and recovery. The demand for science and engineering information was of interest but not seen as crucial to policy, business or the public. The 22nd February 2011 Christchurch earthquake (Mw 6.2) changed all that; there was a significant death toll and many injuries. There was widespread collapse of older unreinforced and two relatively modern multi-storey buildings, and major disruption to infrastructure. The contrast in the interest and relevance of the science could not have been greater compared to 5 months previously. Magnitude 5+ aftershocks over a 20 month period resulted in confusion, stress, an inability to define a recovery trajectory, major concerns about whether insurers and reinsurers would continue to provide cover, very high levels of media interest from New Zealand and around the world, and high levels of political risk. As the aftershocks continued there was widespread speculation as to what the future held. During the sequence, the science and engineering sector sought to coordinate and offer timely and integrated advice. However, other than GeoNet, the national geophysical monitoring network, there were few resources devoted to communication, with the result that it was almost always reactive. With hindsight we have identified the need to resource information gathering and synthesis, execute strategic assessments of stakeholder needs, undertake proactive communication, and develop specific information packages for the diversity of users. Overall this means substantially increased resources. Planning is now underway for the science sector to adopt the New Zealand standardised CIMS (Coordinated Incident Management System) structure for management and communication during a crisis, which should help structure and resource the science response needs in future major events.

Search for repeating events at the plate interface in the seismic sequence of the 2014 Mw8.1 Iquique earthquake, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kummerow, Joern; Asch, Guenter; Sens-Schönfelder, Christoph; Schurr, Bernd; Tilmann, Frederik; Shapiro, Serge A.

2017-04-01

The 2014 Mw8.1 Iquique earthquake occurred along a segment of the northern Chile- southern Peru seismic gap which had not ruptured for more than 100 years. A specific feature of this event is the observation of prominent foreshock clusters with successively increasing seismic moment releases starting several months before the main shock (e.g., Schurr et al., 2014). The entire seismic sequence, including also the aftershock seismicity, was monitored exceptionally well by the Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC). Here, we present results from a systematic, long-term search for repeating seismic events along the plate interface in the source region of the 1 April 2014 (Mw8.1) Iquique main shock. Repeating earthquakes are widely assumed to indicate recurrent ruptures on the same fault patch and to accommodate aseismic slip in the creeping portions around the seismic patch. According to this concept, the analysis of repeating events and of their temporal behaviour provides a tool to estimate the amount of creep. We use the IPOC and two additional local seismic networks and select recorded waveforms of several hundreds of located earthquakes within the foreshock and aftershock series as template events. Waveforms are windowed around the P and S phases and bandpass-filtered for different frequency bands. Window starts are defined by manually revised P onset times. We then run a newly implemented correlation detector on the resampled, continuous seismic data to find highly similar waveforms for each template event. Repeating earthquakes are finally identified by a combination of estimated source dimensions, high waveform similarity and precise relative relocations of the events within each multiplet group. The analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of the detected repeating earthquake sequences allows to test the proposed idea of progressive unlocking of the plate boundary before the Iquique main shock.

Statistical Seismology and Induced Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiampo, K. F.; González, P. J.; Kazemian, J.

2014-12-01

While seismicity triggered or induced by natural resources production such as mining or water impoundment in large dams has long been recognized, the recent increase in the unconventional production of oil and gas has been linked to rapid rise in seismicity in many places, including central North America (Ellsworth et al., 2012; Ellsworth, 2013). Worldwide, induced events of M~5 have occurred and, although rare, have resulted in both damage and public concern (Horton, 2012; Keranen et al., 2013). In addition, over the past twenty years, the increase in both number and coverage of seismic stations has resulted in an unprecedented ability to precisely record the magnitude and location of large numbers of small magnitude events. The increase in the number and type of seismic sequences available for detailed study has revealed differences in their statistics that previously difficult to quantify. For example, seismic swarms that produce significant numbers of foreshocks as well as aftershocks have been observed in different tectonic settings, including California, Iceland, and the East Pacific Rise (McGuire et al., 2005; Shearer, 2012; Kazemian et al., 2014). Similarly, smaller events have been observed prior to larger induced events in several occurrences from energy production. The field of statistical seismology has long focused on the question of triggering and the mechanisms responsible (Stein et al., 1992; Hill et al., 1993; Steacy et al., 2005; Parsons, 2005; Main et al., 2006). For example, in most cases the associated stress perturbations are much smaller than the earthquake stress drop, suggesting an inherent sensitivity to relatively small stress changes (Nalbant et al., 2005). Induced seismicity provides the opportunity to investigate triggering and, in particular, the differences between long- and short-range triggering. Here we investigate the statistics of induced seismicity sequences from around the world, including central North America and Spain, and natural earthquake swarms and non-swarm tectonic events from California, Nevada and Iceland. We compare the foreshock and aftershock Omori decay parameters and the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude scaling relationships for these different sequences in order to better understand the relationship between triggering and cascade sequences.

Identification and characterization of earthquake clusters: a comparative analysis for selected sequences in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Gentili, Stefania

2017-04-01

Identification and statistical characterization of seismic clusters may provide useful insights about the features of seismic energy release and their relation to physical properties of the crust within a given region. Moreover, a number of studies based on spatio-temporal analysis of main-shocks occurrence require preliminary declustering of the earthquake catalogs. Since various methods, relying on different physical/statistical assumptions, may lead to diverse classifications of earthquakes into main events and related events, we aim to investigate the classification differences among different declustering techniques. Accordingly, a formal selection and comparative analysis of earthquake clusters is carried out for the most relevant earthquakes in North-Eastern Italy, as reported in the local OGS-CRS bulletins, compiled at the National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics since 1977. The comparison is then extended to selected earthquake sequences associated with a different seismotectonic setting, namely to events that occurred in the region struck by the recent Central Italy destructive earthquakes, making use of INGV data. Various techniques, ranging from classical space-time windows methods to ad hoc manual identification of aftershocks, are applied for detection of earthquake clusters. In particular, a statistical method based on nearest-neighbor distances of events in space-time-energy domain, is considered. Results from clusters identification by the nearest-neighbor method turn out quite robust with respect to the time span of the input catalogue, as well as to minimum magnitude cutoff. The identified clusters for the largest events reported in North-Eastern Italy since 1977 are well consistent with those reported in earlier studies, which were aimed at detailed manual aftershocks identification. The study shows that the data-driven approach, based on the nearest-neighbor distances, can be satisfactorily applied to decompose the seismic catalog into background seismicity and individual sequences of earthquake clusters, also in areas characterized by moderate seismic activity, where the standard declustering techniques may turn out rather gross approximations. With these results acquired, the main statistical features of seismic clusters are explored, including complex interdependence of related events, with the aim to characterize the space-time patterns of earthquakes occurrence in North-Eastern Italy and capture their basic differences with Central Italy sequences.

The Emilia 2012 seismic sequence: hints on incipient basement-involved deformation in the foreland of the Northern Apennines (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Argnani, Andrea; Carannante, Simona; Massa, Marco; D'Alema, Ezio; Lovati, Sara

2015-04-01

The deformation front of the Northern Apennines is buried under the sediments of the Po Plain and was formed mainly during the Pliocene. The remarkably arcuate shape of the thrust front contrasts with the linear northwestern trend of the pede-Apennines, where recent deformation is documented by both geological and geodetic evidence. This study presents new geological and seismological data that are used to assess the structural style of the Ferrara Arc, a sector of the Northern Apennine front that was hit by two strong earthquakes on May 20 (MW 6.1) and May 29 (MW 6.0), 2012. The proposed interpretation is based on a dense grid of commercial seismic profiles and exploration wells, and high-quality relocation of ~5,300 earthquakes (the Emilia sequence). The seismicity was used to calibrate new one-dimensional and three-dimensional local Vp and Vs velocity models for the area. On the basis of these new models, the initial sparse hypocenters were then relocated in absolute mode and adjusted using the double-difference relative location algorithm. Seismicity distribution is elongated in the W-NW to E-SE directions, reaching a depth of 10-12 km. The aftershocks of the May 20 mainshock appear to be distributed on a rupture surface that dips ~45° SSW, and the surface projection indicates an area ~10 km wide and 23 km long. The aftershocks of the May 29 second mainshock followed a steep rupture surface that is well constrained within the investigated volume, whereby the surface projection of the blind source indicates an area ~6 km wide and 33 km long. The analysed multichannel seismic profiles highlight the presence of relevant lateral variations in the structural style of the Ferrara folds that developed during the Pliocene and Pleistocene, and also show the occurrence of a Mesozoic extensional fault system in the Ferrara arc, which in places has been seismically reactivated. These geological and seismological observations suggest that the 2012 Emilia earthquakes were related to ruptures along blind fault surfaces that are not part of the Pliocene-Pleistocene structural system, but are instead related to a deeper system that is itself closely related to re-activation of a Mesozoic extensional fault system. The implication is that the Emilia 2012 seismic sequence was related to activation of a new deformation system that has developed since the late Pleistocene and that affects the deeper structural levels within the Adriatic crust. This interpretation has major relevance for the seismotectonic characterization of the Po Plain, because the location and extent of the Ferrara folds, that were formed during the Pliocene-Pleistocene, cannot simply be used to estimate the seismogenic potential of the Ferrara Arc region.

An Examination of Upper Plate Aftershocks of the Tohoku-oki Earthquake: Are They Caused by a Long-term Change in the Dip of the Subducting Plate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oryan, B.; Buck, W. R.

2017-12-01

The Tohoku-oki earthquake was one of the strongest earthquakes ever recorded. 50-80 meters of lateral motion of the sloping seafloor resulted in a tsunami that exceeded predictions and caused one of the costliest natural disasters in history. It was also the first time extensional aftershocks were observed in the upper plate over a region as wide as 250km. Inspired by these findings, researchers found similar upper plate extensional earthquakes after reexamining seismic data from past earthquakes that had also produced large tsunamis. Such extensional aftershocks are difficult to explain in terms of standard subduction models. Most models assume that the dip of the subducting plate remains constant with time. However, geological evidence indicates that the dip angle of the subducting plate changes. We hypothesize that a reduction in the dip angle of the subducting plate can cause upper plate extensional earthquakes. This change in dip angle adds extensional bending stress to the upper plate. During an inter-seismic period, the interface is `locked' causing regional compression that prevents the release of extensional energy. Relief of compressional stresses during a megathrust event can trigger the release of the accumulated extensional energy, explaining why extensional earthquakes were observed after some megathrust events. Numerical models will be used to test our hypothesis. First, we will model long term subduction with a nearly constant dip angle. Then, we will impose a `mantle wind' to reduce the dip angle of the subducting plate. Eventually, we will model a full seismic cycle of the subduction resulting in a megathrust event. The generation of extensional earthquakes in the upper plate of our model following the megathrust event will allow us to determine whether a causal link exists between these earthquakes and a reduction in the dip angle of the subducting plate.

Observations of Static Coulomb Stress Triggering During the Mw 5.7 Pawnee Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennington, C.; Chen, X.; Nakata, N.; Chang, J. C.

2016-12-01

The Pawnee earthquake occurred at 12:02 UTC on September 3 and was felt throughout Oklahoma and is the largest event recorded in Oklahoma instrumented history. The earthquake occurred near the junction of two previously mapped faults (Watchorn Fault and Labette Fault), but the actual fault that ruptured was a left-lateral unmapped basement fault (now known as the Sooner Lake Fault) with a strike of 107°, which is conjugate to a segment of the Labette fault that is optimally oriented (referred as OOF). We located 634 events from both before and after the mainshock (updated on September 15, 2016) and use these locations to map other seismogenic faults in the area. Examining the catalog, we found two episodes of seismicity, which started at 100 days and 40 days prior to mainshock, each episode has two clusters occurring two days apart on both OOF and near the mainshock. The near-simultaneous occurrence of clusters suggests possible stress interaction between the Sooner Lake Fault and the Labette fault. We examined the Coulomb stress changes on the surrounding faults caused by the mainshock and have found an increase of coulomb stress along the rakes of mapped faults in the area, the highest being along the Sooner Lake fault and the OOF segment of the Labette fault (see fig 1). These faults experienced up to 5 bars of positive coulomb stress increase, which matched the areas that experience the most aftershocks. To better understand the effect of the coulomb stress on the aftershocks, we plan on refining the catalogs for both aftershocks over a longer period and focal mechanisms to obtain accurate nodal planes, which will be used to see how and if the aftershocks were triggered by the Coulomb stress changes. We will also examine and refine the focal mechanisms that were produced for the events that occurred both before and after the main shock to investigate Coulomb stress interaction. Fig 1. (a) Is a map of faults in the Pawnee area with the red line being the source fault, which is part of the Sooner Lake Fault (green and red line segments.) The opitimally oriented segment of the Labette Fault (OOF) is shown in blue. (b) Shows the coulomb stress change for individual rakes after the rupture along the source fault.

­Tectonic and geomorphic setting of the Pamir Plateau: Insights from InSAR and teleseismic analysis of the 2015 Lake Saurez and 2016 Muji fault earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanjundiah, P.; Barbot, S.; Wei, S.; Tapponnier, P.; Feng, W.; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

The Pamir Plateau lies on the western edge of the India- Eurasia collision zone and has been the sight of complex subduction regime in the past 50 Ma. In our study, we focus on two earthquakes and their aftershocks that occurred between December 2015 and December 2016. The first earthquake (Mw7.2), on 7 December 2015 between the Karakoram and Darwas fault systems, was sinstral strike slip in nature. The earthquake on 25 November (Mw6.6) occurred on the western end of Muji Fault, a dextral strike slip fault with an avg slip rate of 4mm/yr. We aim to better understand the structure, stress and deformation patterns in the northern and central Pamir plateau by analyzing InSAR, teleseismic, and optical data for these events and their aftershocks. We aim to better understand the structure, stress and deformation patterns in the northern and central Pamir plateau by analysing InSAR, teleseismic, and optical data for these events and their aftershocks. We constrain the fault geometry by precisely relocating aftershocks using the double difference technique implemented in HypoDD (Waldhauser & Ellsworth 2000). We used the Green's functions of Okada (1992) to invert for slip on the fault with rectangular dislocation and edgreen to numerically invert for the slip in a layered medium (Wang et al. 2003). The surface rupture of the December 2015 Lake Saurez earthquake shows evidence of multiple segments and step-overs. The combination of data sets used in this study highlights the existence of a seismic gap south of Lake Karakul as well as coupling between the Muji and Darwas-Karakoram fault systems. Mapping of past ruptures shows that the Sarez fault continues along the eastern coast of Lake Karakul almost until the Muji fault. With near field geodetic data in the form of InSAR, we can get a better insight into complex fault structures as well as post seismic slip and strain along the faults and its surroundings. We emphasize the role of smaller faults and their interactions in accommodating the overall strain in the Pamir region and their effect on estimating local seismic hazard.

Tehuantepec and Morelos-Puebla earthquakes lived and reported by the Servicio Sismológico Nacional, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez-Campos, X.

2017-12-01

On September 2017, Mexico experienced two significant inslab earthquakes with only 11 days apart from each other. Both caused severe damage in the epicentral states: Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Morelos, and Mexico City. In all senses, they tested the capabilities of the Servicio Sismológico Nacional (SSN, Mexican National Seismological Service), from the acquisition, processing, and reporting systems (both, automatic and manual), to social network and media response. In this work, we present the various aspects of the performance of the SSN and the results obtained real-time and the days after. The first earthquake occurred on 8 September within the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The SSN estimated its magnitude as Mww8.2, from W-phase inversion of local and regional data. Forty days later, it has had more than 7750 aftershocks with magnitudes larger than 2.5, making restless to inhabitants in the epicentral area. A preliminary hypo-DD relocation of the aftershocks shows two parallel SE-NW alignments. The mainshock seemed to have triggered seismicity in central Mexico, an effect previously observed by Singh et al. (1998) for coastal earthquakes. Barely 11 days had passed since this major quake. The SSN was in the middle of an intense aftershock sequence and conducting several outreach activities due to the anniversary of the 19 September 1985 (Mw8.0) earthquake, when the second quake hit. SSN located its epicenter at the border of the states of Morelos and Puebla and estimated its magnitude as Mww7.1. In this case, SSN identified only eight aftershocks, which was a similar behavior for previous inslab earthquakes in the region. Important aspects that these events have highlighted are the media and social network responses. Immediately after the first quake, SSN faced misinformation due to viral videos and social media messages predicting massive earthquakes and their relation to a solar storm that took place days before. Outreach to the public and the media became essential. Despite the excellent performance of SSN during this seismic crisis, there are challenges and areas of opportunity that should be addressed shortly; for instance, automatization of detection, location and magnitude estimation of small earthquakes, and a new approach to interact with social media.

Mapping b-value for 2009 Harrat Lunayyir earthquake swarm, western Saudi Arabia and Coulomb stress for its mainshock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelfattah, Ali K.; Mogren, Saad; Mukhopadhyay, Manoj

2017-01-01

The Harrat Lunayyir (HL) earthquake swarm of 2009 originated in the HL volcanic field and attracted global attention mainly due to three factors: (i) its relatively short life span that ushered a large frequency of the swarm population (30,000 events in < 2 years), (ii) the swarm epicenter zone was contained within a small crustal volume under the HL and (iii) the migratory nature of the swarm following the tectonic trend of a normal fault zone beneath HL. The HL belongs to the Large Igneous Province of Saudi Arabia (LIP-SA) where it correlates to the Great Dikes locally. Our aim in this study is to describe the spatial distribution of the hypocenters, b-value character, and Coulomb stress failure (CSF) in an attempt to analyze the underlying geodynamic process that caused the swarm. We utilize the relocated hypocenters monitored by local networks to examine the b-value characteristics for the swarm. This is best represented in a cross section showing two domains of higher b-value anomalies: two patches occurring at shallow depth and at the deeper crust to the SE from the mainshock originated at the shallower depth northwestward. Consistently positive ΔCFF pattern with a large percentage of aftershocks imply how the mainshock rupture controlled the aftershocks activity. This implies that the failure along the NNW fault trend is due to the prevailing ambient stress field imparted to the swarm. We model this by CSF associated with the mainshock for three time dependent situations: (a) foreshock and aftershock epicenters, (b) foreshock hypocenters, and (c) aftershock hypocenters. In actuality, multiple factors might have controlled the aftershock activity as we speculate that positive Coulomb stress was associated in an area where the higher b-value prevails. The CSF produced by the mainshock illustrates how the stress dissipated along the NNW normal fault zone that interrupts the Great Dykes along the Red Sea coast. These results further suggest that the crustal heterogeneity under HL act as an asperity in the epicentral area, whose origin may relate to magma intrusion into upper crust. However, seismic survey is required for detailing this geologic inference.

The 2015 April 25 Gorkha Earthquake and its Aftershocks: Implications for lateral heterogeneity on the Main Himalayan Thrust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitra, S.; Kumar, A.; Priestley, K. F.

2016-12-01

The 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8) occurred by thrust faulting on a ˜150 km long and ˜70 km wide, locked downdip segment of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), causing the Himalaya to slip SSW over the Indian Plate, and was followed by major-to-moderate aftershocks. Back projection of teleseismic P-wave and inversion of teleseismic body waves provide constraints on the geometry and kinematics of the mainshock rupture and source mechanism of aftershocks. The mainshock initiated ˜80 km west of Katmandu, close to the locking line on the MHT and propagated eastwards, along ˜117° azimuth, for a duration of ˜70 s, in multi-stage rupture. The mainshock has been modeled using four sub-events, propagating from west-to-east. The first sub-event (0-20 s) ruptured at a velocity of ˜3.5 km/s on a ˜6° N dipping flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion. The second sub-event (20-35 s) ruptured a ˜18° W dipping lateral ramp on the MHT in oblique thrust motion. The rupture velocity dropped from 3.5 km/s to 2.5 km/s, as a result of updip propagation of the rupture. The third sub-event (35-50 s) ruptured a ˜7° N dipping, eastward flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion and resulted in the largest amplitude arrivals at teleseismic distances. The fourth sub-event (50-70 s) occurred by left-lateral strike-slip motion on a steeply dipping transverse fault, at high angle to the MHT and arrested the eastward propagation of the mainshock rupture. Eastward stress build-up following the mainshock resulted in the largest aftershock (Mw 7.3), which occurred on the MHT, immediately east of the mainshock rupture. Source mechanism of moderate aftershocks reveal stress adjustment at the edges of the mainshock fault, flexural faulting on top of the downgoing Indian Plate and extensional faulting in the hanging wall of the MHT.

The 2015 April 25 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake and its aftershocks: implications for lateral heterogeneity on the Main Himalayan Thrust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Ajay; Singh, Shashwat K.; Mitra, S.; Priestley, K. F.; Dayal, Shankar

2017-02-01

The 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8) occurred by thrust faulting on a ˜150 km long and ˜70 km wide, locked downdip segment of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), causing the Himalaya to slip SSW over the Indian Plate, and was followed by major-to-moderate aftershocks. Back projection of teleseismic P-wave and inversion of teleseismic body waves provide constraints on the geometry and kinematics of the main-shock rupture and source mechanism of aftershocks. The main-shock initiated ˜80 km west of Katmandu, close to the locking line on the MHT and propagated eastwards along ˜117° azimuth for a duration of ˜70 s, with varying rupture velocity on a heterogeneous fault surface. The main-shock has been modelled using four subevents, propagating from west-to-east. The first subevent (0-20 s) ruptured at a velocity of ˜3.5 km s- 1 on a ˜6°N dipping flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion. The second subevent (20-35 s) ruptured a ˜18° W dipping lateral ramp on the MHT in oblique thrust motion. The rupture velocity dropped from 3.5 km s- 1 to 2.5 km s- 1, as a result of updip propagation of the rupture. The third subevent (35-50 s) ruptured a ˜7°N dipping, eastward flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion and resulted in the largest amplitude arrivals at teleseismic distances. The fourth subevent (50-70 s) occurred by left-lateral strike-slip motion on a steeply dipping transverse fault, at high angle to the MHT and arrested the eastward propagation of the main-shock rupture. Eastward stress build-up following the main-shock resulted in the largest aftershock (Mw 7.3), which occurred on the MHT, immediately east of the main-shock rupture. Source mechanisms of moderate aftershocks reveal stress adjustment at the edges of the main-shock fault, flexural faulting on top of the downgoing Indian Plate and extensional faulting in the hanging wall of the MHT.

Analysis of earthquake clustering and source spectra in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Chen, X.

2015-12-01

The Salton Sea Geothermal field is located within the tectonic step-over between San Andreas Fault and Imperial Fault. Since the 1980s, geothermal energy exploration has resulted with step-like increase of microearthquake activities, which mirror the expansion of geothermal field. Distinguishing naturally occurred and induced seismicity, and their corresponding characteristics (e.g., energy release) is important for hazard assessment. Between 2008 and 2014, seismic data recorded by a local borehole array were provided public access from CalEnergy through SCEC data center; and the high quality local recording of over 7000 microearthquakes provides unique opportunity to sort out characteristics of induced versus natural activities. We obtain high-resolution earthquake location using improved S-wave picks, waveform cross-correlation and a new 3D velocity model. We then develop method to identify spatial-temporally isolated earthquake clusters. These clusters are classified into aftershock-type, swarm-type, and mixed-type (aftershock-like, with low skew, low magnitude and shorter duration), based on the relative timing of largest earthquakes and moment-release. The mixed-type clusters are mostly located at 3 - 4 km depth near injection well; while aftershock-type clusters and swarm-type clusters also occur further from injection well. By counting number of aftershocks within 1day following mainshock in each cluster, we find that the mixed-type clusters have much higher aftershock productivity compared with other types and historic M4 earthquakes. We analyze detailed spatial variation of 'b-value'. We find that the mixed-type clusters are mostly located within high b-value patches, while large (M>3) earthquakes and other types of clusters are located within low b-value patches. We are currently processing P and S-wave spectra to analyze the spatial-temporal correlation of earthquake stress parameter and seismicity characteristics. Preliminary results suggest that the mixed-type clusters and high b-value patches are spatially correlated with low stress drop earthquakes, indicating high-productivity microearthquakes within low differential stress region, potentially due to deeper injection activities.

Coseismic Stress Changes of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, Earthquake and Its Implication for Seismic Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, B.; LIU, C.; Xiong, X.

2017-12-01

On 13 November 2016, an earthquake with moment magnitude Mw 7.8 stroke North Canterbury, New Zealand as result of shallow oblique-reverse faulting close to boundary between the Pacific and Australian plates in the South Island, collapsing buildings and resulting in significant economic losses. The distribution of early aftershocks extended about 150 km to the north-northeast of the mainshock, suggesting the potential of earthquake triggering in this complex fault system. Strong aftershocks following major earthquakes present significant challenges for locals' reconstruction and rehabilitation. The regions around the mainshock may also suffer from earthquakes triggered by the Kaikoura earthquake. Therefore, it is significantly important to outline the regions with potential aftershocks and high seismic hazard to mitigate future disasters. Moreover, this earthquake ruptured at least 13 separate faults, and provided an opportunity to test the theory of earthquake stress triggering for a complex fault system. In this study, we calculated the coseismic Coulomb Failure Stress changes (ΔCFS) caused by the Kaikoura earthquake on the hypocenters of both historical earthquakes and aftershocks of this event with focal mechanisms. Our results show that the percentage of earthquake with positive ΔCFS within the aftershocks is higher than that of historical earthquakes. It means that the Kaikoura earthquake effectively influence the seismicity in this region. The aftershocks of Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake are mainly located in the regions with positive ΔCFS. The aftershock distributions can be well explained by the coseismic ΔCFS. Furthermore, earthquake-induced ΔCFS on the surrounding active faults was further discussed. The northeastern Alpine fault, the southwest part of North Canterbury Fault, parts of the Marlborough fault system and the southwest ends of the Kapiti-Manawatu faults are significantly stressed by the Kaikoura earthquake. The earthquake-induced stress increments would raise the probability of earthquake occurrence on these faults.

Stress evolution following the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake: Consequences for afterslip, relaxation, aftershocks and departures from Omori decay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chan, C.-H.; Stein, R.S.

2009-01-01

We explore how Coulomb stress transfer and viscoelastic relaxation control afterslip and aftershocks in a continental thrust fault system. The 1999 September 21 Mw = 7.6 Chi-Chi shock is typical of continental ramp-d??collement systems throughout the world, and so inferences drawn from this uniquely well-recorded event may be widely applicable. First, we find that the spatial and depth distribution of aftershocks and their focal mechanisms are consistent with the calculated Coulomb stress changes imparted by the coseismic rupture. Some 61 per cent of the M ??? 2 aftershocks and 83 per cent of the M ??? 4 aftershocks lie in regions for which the Coulomb stress increased by ???0.1 bars, and there is a 11-12 per cent gain in the percentage of aftershocks nodal planes on which the shear stress increased over the pre-Chi Chi control period. Second, we find that afterslip occurred where the calculated coseismic stress increased on the fault ramp and d??collement, subject to the condition that friction is high on the ramp and low on the d??collement. Third, viscoelastic relaxation is evident from the fit of the post-seismic GPS data on the footwall. Fourth, we find that the rate of seismicity began to increase during the post-seismic period in an annulus extending east of the main rupture. The spatial extent of the seismicity annulus resembles the calculated ???0.05-bar Coulomb stress increase caused by viscoelastic relaxation and afterslip, and we find a 9-12 per cent gain in the percentage of focal mechanisms with >0.01-bar shear stress increases imparted by the post-seismic afterslip and relaxation in comparison to the control period. Thus, we argue that post-seismic stress changes can for the first time be shown to alter the production of aftershocks, as judged by their rate, spatial distribution, and focal mechanisms. ?? Journal compilation ?? 2009 RAS.

Aftershock distribution and heterogeneous structure in and around the source area of the 2014 northern Nagano Prefecture earthquake (Mw 6.2) , central Japan, revealed by dense seismic array observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurashimo, E.; Hirata, N.; Iwasaki, T.; Sakai, S.; Obara, K.; Ishiyama, T.; Sato, H.

2015-12-01

A shallow earthquake (Mw 6.2) occurred on November 22 in the northern Nagano Prefecture, central Japan. Aftershock area is located near the Kamishiro fault, which is a part of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line (ISTL). ISTL is one of the major tectonic boundaries in Japan. Precise aftershock distribution and heterogeneous structure in and around the source region of this earthquake is important to constrain the process of earthquake occurrence. We conducted a high-density seismic array observation in and around source area to investigate aftershock distribution and crustal structure. One hundred sixty-three seismic stations, approximately 1 km apart, were deployed during the period from December 3, 2014 to December 21, 2014. Each seismograph consisted of a 4.5 Hz 3-component seismometer and a digital data recorder (GSX-3). Furthermore, the seismic data at 40 permanent stations were incorporated in our analysis. During the seismic array observation, the Japan Meteorological Agency located 977 earthquakes in a latitude range of 35.5°-37.1°N and a longitude range of 136.7°-139.0°E, from which we selected 500 local events distributed uniformly in the study area. To investigate the aftershock distribution and the crustal structure, the double-difference tomography method [Zhang and Thurber, 2003] was applied to the P- and S-wave arrival time data obtained from 500 local earthquakes. The relocated aftershock distribution shows a concentration on a plane dipping eastward in the vicinity of the mainshock hypocenter. The large slip region (asperity) estimated from InSAR analysis [GSI, 2014] corresponds to the low-activity region of the aftershocks. The depth section of Vp structure shows that the high Vp zone corresponds to the large slip region. These results suggest that structural heterogeneities in and around the fault plane may have controlled the rupture process of the 2014 northern Nagano Prefecture earthquake.

Depth dependent stress revealed by aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narteau, C.; Shebalin, P.

2017-12-01

Aftershocks occur in response to perturbations of the state of stress induced either by earthquakes or human activities. Along major strike-slip fault segments of the San Andreas fault system, the time-delay before the onset of the power-law aftershock decay rate (the c-value) varies by three orders of magnitude in the first twenty kilometers below the surface. Despite the influence of the lithostatic stress, there is no continuous change in c-value with respect to depth. Instead, two decay phases are separated by an abrupt increase at an intermediate depth range of 2 to 5 km. This transitional regime is the only one observed in fluid-injection-induced seismic areas. This provides strong evidence for the role of fluid and a porosity reduction mechanism at depth of few kilometers in active fault zones. Aftershock statistics can then be used to predict the evolution the differential shear stress with depth until the brittle-ductile transition is reached.

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence.

PubMed

Kato, Aitaro; Nakamura, Kouji; Hiyama, Yohei

2016-01-01

Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An M j 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an M j 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest.

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence

PubMed Central

KATO, Aitaro; NAKAMURA, Kouji; HIYAMA, Yohei

2016-01-01

Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An Mj 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an Mj 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest. PMID:27725474

A Probabilistic Model of Global-Scale Seismology with Veith-Clawson Amplitude Corrections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, N. S.; Russell, S.

2013-12-01

We present a probabilistic generative model of global-scale seismology, NET-VISA, that is designed to address the event detection and location problem of seismic monitoring. The model is based on a standard Bayesian framework with prior probabilities for event generation and propagation as well as likelihoods of detection and arrival (or onset) parameters. The model is supplemented with a greedy search algorithm that iteratively improves the predicted bulletin with respect to the posterior probability. Our prior model incorporates both seismic theory and empirical observations as appropriate. For instance, we use empirical observations for the expected rates of earthquake at each point on the earth, while we use the Gutenberg-Richter law for the the expected magnitude distribution of these earthquakes. In this work, we describe an extension of our model where we include the Veith-Clawson (1972) amplitude decline curves in our empirically calibrated arrival amplitude model. While this change doesn't alter the overall event-detection results, we have chosen to keep the Veith-Clawson curves since they are more seismically accurate. We also describe a recent change to our search algorithm, whereby we now consider multiple hypotheses when we encounter a series of closely spaced arrivals which could be explained by either a single event or multiple co-located events. This change has led to a sharp improvement in our results on large after-shock sequences. We use the analyst-curated LEB bulletin or the REB bulletin, which is the published product of the IDC, as a reference and measure the overlap (percentage of reference events that are matched) and inconsistency (percentage of test bulletin events that don't match anything in the reference) of a one-to-one matching between the test and the reference bulletins. In the table below we show results for NET-VISA and SEL3, which is produced by the existing GA software, for the whole of 2009. These results show that NET-VISA, which is restricted to use arrivals with a 6 hour lag (in order to be comparable to SEL3), reduces the number of missed events by a factor of 2.5 while simultaneously reducing the rate of spurious events. Further, these "spurious" NET-VISA events, in fact, include many real events which are missed by the human analysts. When we compare the NET-VISA events, with arrivals from at least 3 stations (to be comparable to LEB), with NEIC events (in the ISC catalog) over the continental United States, as well as NNC events over Central Asia, we find that NET-VISA identifies 1.5 to 2 times the number of events that the IDC analysts find. Most of these additional events are in the 2--4 mb or ML range. Our experiments also confirm that NET-VISA accurately located each of the recent nuclear explosions to within 5 km of the LEB location. For large after-shock sequences, NET-VISA has been shown to be very efficient as well as accurate. For example on the Tohoku sequence (March 10 -- 14, 2011), NET-VISA (running time 2.57 days) had an overlap of 82.7 % with LEB and inconsistency of 26.8 % versus SEL3's overlap of 71.9 % and inconsistency of 40 %.

Time Separation Between Events in a Sequence: a Regional Property?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muirwood, R.; Fitzenz, D. D.

2013-12-01

Earthquake sequences are loosely defined as events occurring too closely in time and space to appear unrelated. Depending on the declustering method, several, all, or no event(s) after the first large event might be recognized as independent mainshocks. It can therefore be argued that a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA, traditionally dealing with mainshocks only) might already include the ground shaking effects of such sequences. Alternatively all but the largest event could be classified as an ';aftershock' and removed from the earthquake catalog. While in PSHA the question is only whether to keep or remove the events from the catalog, for Risk Management purposes, the community response to the earthquakes, as well as insurance risk transfer mechanisms, can be profoundly affected by the actual timing of events in such a sequence. In particular the repetition of damaging earthquakes over a period of weeks to months can lead to businesses closing and families evacuating from the region (as happened in Christchurch, New Zealand in 2011). Buildings that are damaged in the first earthquake may go on to be damaged again, even while they are being repaired. Insurance also functions around a set of critical timeframes - including the definition of a single 'event loss' for reinsurance recoveries within the 192 hour ';hours clause', the 6-18 month pace at which insurance claims are settled, and the annual renewal of insurance and reinsurance contracts. We show how temporal aspects of earthquake sequences need to be taken into account within models for Risk Management, and what time separation between events are most sensitive, both in terms of the modeled disruptions to lifelines and business activity as well as in the losses to different parties (such as insureds, insurers and reinsurers). We also explore the time separation between all events and between loss causing events for a collection of sequences from across the world and we point to the need to understand the rate controlling processes that determine such sequences per tectonic region and fluid/heat flow provinces.

Identical Aftershocks from the Main Rupture Zone 10 Months After the Mw=7.6 September 5, 2012, Nicoya, Costa Rica, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protti, M.; Alfaro-Diaz, R.; Brenn, G. R.; Fasola, S.; Murillo, A.; Marshall, J. S.; Gardner, T. W.

2013-12-01

Over a two weeks period and as part of a Keck Geology Consortium summer research project, we installed a dense broad band seismic array directly over the rupture zone of the Nicoya, September 5th, 2012, Mw=7.6 earthquake. The network consisted of 5 Trillium compact seismometers and Taurus digitizers from Nanometrics, defining a triangular area of ~20 km per side. Also located within this area are 3 stations of the Nicoya permanent broadband network. One side of the triangular area, along the west coast of the Nicoya peninsula, is parallel to the trench and the apex lies 15 km landward. The plate interface and rupture zone of the Nicoya 2012 earthquake are located 16 km below the trench-parallel side and 25 km below the apex of this triangular footprint. Station spacing ranged from 3 to 14 km. This dense array operated from July 2nd to July 17th, 2013. On June 23rd, eight days before we installed this array, an Mw=5.4 aftershock (one of the only 5 aftershocks of the Nicoya Mw=7.6 earthquake with magnitudes above 5.0) occurred directly beneath the area of our temporary network. Preliminary analysis of the data shows that we recorded several identical aftershocks with magnitudes below 1.0 that locate some 18 km below our network. We will present detailed locations of these small aftershocks and their relationship with the June 23rd, 2013 aftershock and the September 5th, 2012, mainshock.

Stress triggering of the 1994 M = 6.7 Northridge, California, Earthquake by its predecessors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stein, R.S.; King, G.C.P.; Lin, J.

1994-01-01

A model of stress transfer implies that earthquakes in 1933 and 1952 increased the Coulomb stress toward failure at the site of the 1971 San Fernando earthquake. The 1971 earthquake in turn raised stress and produced aftershocks at the site of the 1987 Whittier Narrows and 1994 Northridge ruptures. The Northridge main shock raised stress in areas where its aftershocks and surface faulting occurred. Together, the earthquakes with moment magnitude M ??? 6 near Los Angeles since 1933 have stressed parts of the Oak Ridge, Sierra Madre, Santa Monica Mountains, Elysian Park, and Newport-Inglewood faults by more than 1 bar. Although too small to cause earthquakes, these stress changes can trigger events if the crust is already near failure or advance future earthquake occurrence if it is not.

The Chiloé Mw 7.6 earthquake of 2016 December 25 in Southern Chile and its relation to the Mw 9.5 1960 Valdivia earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Dietrich; Ruiz, Javier; Carrasco, Sebastián; Manríquez, Paula

2018-04-01

On 2016 December 25, an Mw 7.6 earthquake broke a portion of the Southern Chilean subduction zone south of Chiloé Island, located in the central part of the Mw 9.5 1960 Valdivia earthquake. This region is characterized by repeated earthquakes in 1960 and historical times with very sparse interseismic activity due to the subduction of a young (˜15 Ma), and therefore hot, oceanic plate. We estimate the coseismic slip distribution based on a kinematic finite-fault source model, and through joint inversion of teleseismic body waves and strong motion data. The coseismic slip model yields a total seismic moment of 3.94 × 1020 N.m that occurred over ˜30 s, with the rupture propagating mainly downdip, reaching a peak slip of ˜4.2 m. Regional moment tensor inversion of stronger aftershocks reveals thrust type faulting at depths of the plate interface. The fore- and aftershock seismicity is mostly related to the subduction interface with sparse seismicity in the overriding crust. The 2016 Chiloé event broke a region with increased locking and most likely broke an asperity of the 1960 earthquake. The updip limit of the main event, aftershocks, foreshocks and interseismic activity are spatially similar, located ˜15 km offshore and parallel to Chiloé Islands west coast. The coseismic slip model of the 2016 Chiloé earthquake suggests a peak slip of 4.2 m that locally exceeds the 3.38 m slip deficit that has accumulated since 1960. Therefore, the 2016 Chiloé earthquake possibly released strain that has built up prior to the 1960 Valdivia earthquake.

Observational constraints on earthquake source scaling: Understanding the limits in resolution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.

1996-01-01

I examine the resolution of the type of stress drop estimates that have been used to place observational constraints on the scaling of earthquake source processes. I first show that apparent stress and Brune stress drop are equivalent to within a constant given any source spectral decay between ??1.5 and ??3 (i.e., any plausible value) and so consistent scaling is expected for the two estimates. I then discuss the resolution and scaling of Brune stress drop estimates, in the context of empirical Green's function results from recent earthquake sequences, including the 1992 Joshua Tree, California, mainshock and its aftershocks. I show that no definitive scaling of stress drop with moment is revealed over the moment range 1019-1025; within this sequence, however, there is a tendency for moderate-sized (M 4-5) events to be characterized by high stress drops. However, well-resolved results for recent M > 6 events are inconsistent with any extrapolated stress increase with moment for the aftershocks. Focusing on comer frequency estimates for smaller (M < 3.5) events, I show that resolution is extremely limited even after empirical Green's function deconvolutions. A fundamental limitation to resolution is the paucity of good signal-to-noise at frequencies above 60 Hz, a limitation that will affect nearly all surficial recordings of ground motion in California and many other regions. Thus, while the best available observational results support a constant stress drop for moderate-to large-sized events, very little robust observational evidence exists to constrain the quantities that bear most critically on our understanding of source processes: stress drop values and stress drop scaling for small events.

Seismicity and source spectra analysis in Salton Sea Geothermal Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Chen, X.

2016-12-01

The surge of "man-made" earthquakes in recent years has led to considerable concerns about the associated hazards. Improved monitoring of small earthquakes would significantly help understand such phenomena and the underlying physical mechanisms. In the Salton Sea Geothermal field in southern California, open access of a local borehole network provides a unique opportunity to better understand the seismicity characteristics, the related earthquake hazards, and the relationship with the geothermal system, tectonic faulting and other physical conditions. We obtain high-resolution earthquake locations in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field, analyze characteristics of spatiotemporal isolated earthquake clusters, magnitude-frequency distributions and spatial variation of stress drops. The analysis reveals spatial coherent distributions of different types of clustering, b-value distributions, and stress drop distribution. The mixture type clusters (short-duration rapid bursts with high aftershock productivity) are predominately located within active geothermal field that correlate with high b-value, low stress drop microearthquake clouds, while regular aftershock sequences and swarms are distributed throughout the study area. The differences between earthquakes inside and outside of geothermal operation field suggest a possible way to distinguish directly induced seismicity due to energy operation versus typical seismic slip driven sequences. The spatial coherent b-value distribution enables in-situ estimation of probabilities for M≥3 earthquakes, and shows that the high large-magnitude-event (LME) probability zones with high stress drop are likely associated with tectonic faulting. The high stress drop in shallow (1-3 km) depth indicates the existence of active faults, while low stress drops near injection wells likely corresponds to the seismic response to fluid injection. I interpret the spatial variation of seismicity and source characteristics as the result of fluid circulation, the fracture network, and tectonic faulting.

Comparison of main-shock and aftershock fragility curves developed for New Zealand and US buildings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uma, S.R.; Ryu, H.; Luco, N.; Liel, A.B.; Raghunandan, M.

2011-01-01

Seismic risk assessment involves the development of fragility functions to express the relationship between ground motion intensity and damage potential. In evaluating the risk associated with the building inventory in a region, it is essential to capture 'actual' characteristics of the buildings and group them so that 'generic building types' can be generated for further analysis of their damage potential. Variations in building characteristics across regions/countries largely influence the resulting fragility functions, such that building models are unsuitable to be adopted for risk assessment in any other region where a different set of building is present. In this paper, for a given building type (represented in terms of height and structural system), typical New Zealand and US building models are considered to illustrate the differences in structural model parameters and their effects on resulting fragility functions for a set of main-shocks and aftershocks. From this study, the general conclusion is that the methodology and assumptions used to derive basic capacity curve parameters have a considerable influence on fragility curves.

Aftershock seismicity and Tectonic Setting of the 16 September 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Dietrich; Geersen, Jacob; Barrientos, Sergio; Moreno, Marcos; Grevemeyer, Ingo; Contreras-Reyes, Eduardo; Kopp, Heidrun

2016-04-01

Powerful subduction zone earthquakes rupture thousands of square kilometers along continental margins but at certain locations earthquake rupture terminates. On 16 September 2015 the Mw. 8.3 Illapel earthquake ruptured a 200 km long stretch of the Central Chilean subduction zone, triggering a tsunami and causing significant damage. Here we analyze the spatial pattern of coseismic rupture and the temporal and spatial pattern of local seismicity for aftershocks and foreshocks in relation to the tectonic setting in the earthquake area. Aftershock seismicity surrounds the rupture area in lateral and downdip direction. For the first 24 hours following the mainshock we observe aftershock migration to both lateral directions with velocities of approximately 2.5 and 5 km/h. At the southern earthquake boundary aftershocks cluster around individual subducted seamounts located on the prolongation of the downthrusting Juan Fernández Ridge indicating stress transfer from the main rupture area. In the northern part of the rupture area a deeper band of local seismicity is observed indicating an alternation of seismic to aseismic behavior of the plate interface in downdip direction. This aseismic region at ~30 km depth that is also observed before the Illapel 2015 earthquake is likely controlled by the intersection of the continental Moho with the subducting slab.

Geophysical investigation of the Denali fault and Alaska Range orogen within the aftershock zone of the October-November 2002, M = 7.9 Denali fault earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, M.A.; Nokleberg, W.J.; Ratchkovski, N.A.; Pellerin, L.; Glen, J.M.; Brocher, T.M.; Booker, J.

2004-01-01

The aftershock zone of the 3 November 2002, M = 7.9 earthquake that ruptured along the right-slip Denali fault in south-central Alaska has been investigated by using gravity and magnetic, magnetotelluric, and deep-crustal, seismic reflection data as well as outcrop geology and earthquake seismology. Strong seismic reflections from within the Alaska Range orogen north of the Denali fault dip as steeply as 25°N and extend to depths as great as 20 km. These reflections outline a relict crustal architecture that in the past 20 yr has produced little seismicity. The Denali fault is nonreflective, probably because this fault dips steeply to vertical. The most intriguing finding from geophysical data is that earthquake aftershocks occurred above a rock body, with low electrical resistivity (>10 Ω·m), that is at depths below ∼10 km. Aftershocks of the Denali fault earthquake have mainly occurred shallower than 10 km. A high geothermal gradient may cause the shallow seismicity. Another possibility is that the low resistivity results from fluids, which could have played a role in locating the aftershock zone by reducing rock friction within the middle and lower crust.

Ductile Gap between the Wenchuan and Lushan Earthquakes Revealed from the Two-dimensional Pg Seismic Tomography

PubMed Central

Pei, Shunping; Zhang, Haijiang; Su, Jinrong; Cui, Zhongxiong

2014-01-01

A high-resolution two-dimensional Pg-wave velocity model is obtained for the upper crust around the epicenters of the April 20, 2013 Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake and the May 12, 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, China. The tomographic inversion uses 47235 Pg arrival times from 6812 aftershocks recorded by 61 stations around the Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes. Across the front Longmenshan fault near the Lushan earthquake, there exists a strong velocity contrast with higher velocities to the west and lower velocities to the east. Along the Longmenshan fault system, there exist two high velocity patches showing an “X” shape with an obtuse angle along the near northwest-southeast (NW-SE) direction. They correspond to the Precambrian Pengguan and Baoxing complexes on the surface but with a ~20 km shift, respectively. The aftershock gap of the 2008 Wenchuan and the 2013 Lushan earthquakes is associated with lower velocities. Based on the theory of maximum effective moment criterion, this suggests that the aftershock gap is weak and the ductile deformation is more likely to occur in the upper crust within the gap under the near NW-SE compression. Therefore our results suggest that the large earthquake may be hard to happen within the gap. PMID:25267344

Ductile gap between the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes revealed from the two-dimensional Pg seismic tomography.

PubMed

Pei, Shunping; Zhang, Haijiang; Su, Jinrong; Cui, Zhongxiong

2014-09-30

A high-resolution two-dimensional Pg-wave velocity model is obtained for the upper crust around the epicenters of the April 20, 2013 Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake and the May 12, 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, China. The tomographic inversion uses 47235 Pg arrival times from 6812 aftershocks recorded by 61 stations around the Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes. Across the front Longmenshan fault near the Lushan earthquake, there exists a strong velocity contrast with higher velocities to the west and lower velocities to the east. Along the Longmenshan fault system, there exist two high velocity patches showing an "X" shape with an obtuse angle along the near northwest-southeast (NW-SE) direction. They correspond to the Precambrian Pengguan and Baoxing complexes on the surface but with a ~20 km shift, respectively. The aftershock gap of the 2008 Wenchuan and the 2013 Lushan earthquakes is associated with lower velocities. Based on the theory of maximum effective moment criterion, this suggests that the aftershock gap is weak and the ductile deformation is more likely to occur in the upper crust within the gap under the near NW-SE compression. Therefore our results suggest that the large earthquake may be hard to happen within the gap.

Possible cause for an improbable earthquake: The 1997 MW 4.9 southern Alabama earthquake and hydrocarbon recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Wolf, L.

1999-01-01

Circumstantial and physical evidence indicates that the 1997 MW 4.9 earthquake in southern Alabama may have been related to hydrocarbon recovery. Epicenters of this earthquake and its aftershocks were located within a few kilometers of active oil and gas extraction wells and two pressurized injection wells. Main shock and aftershock focal depths (2-6 km) are within a few kilometers of the injection and withdrawal depths. Strain accumulation at geologic rates sufficient to cause rupture at these shallow focal depths is not likely. A paucity of prior seismicity is difficult to reconcile with the occurrence of an earthquake of MW 4.9 and a magnitude-frequency relationship usually assumed for natural earthquakes. The normal-fault main-shock mechanism is consistent with reactivation of preexisting faults in the regional tectonic stress field. If the earthquake were purely tectonic, however, the question arises as to why it occurred on only the small fraction of a large, regional fault system coinciding with active hydrocarbon recovery. No obvious temporal correlation is apparent between the earthquakes and recovery activities. Although thus far little can be said quantitatively about the physical processes that may have caused the 1997 sequence, a plausible explanation involves the poroelastic response of the crust to extraction of hydrocarbons.

Diverse rupture processes in the 2015 Peru deep earthquake doublet.

PubMed

Ye, Lingling; Lay, Thorne; Kanamori, Hiroo; Zhan, Zhongwen; Duputel, Zacharie

2016-06-01

Earthquakes in deeply subducted oceanic lithosphere can involve either brittle or dissipative ruptures. On 24 November 2015, two deep (606 and 622 km) magnitude 7.5 and 7.6 earthquakes occurred 316 s and 55 km apart. The first event (E1) was a brittle rupture with a sequence of comparable-size subevents extending unilaterally ~50 km southward with a rupture speed of ~4.5 km/s. This earthquake triggered several aftershocks to the north along with the other major event (E2), which had 40% larger seismic moment and the same duration (~20 s), but much smaller rupture area and lower rupture speed than E1, indicating a more dissipative rupture. A minor energy release ~12 s after E1 near the E2 hypocenter, possibly initiated by the S wave from E1, and a clear aftershock ~165 s after E1 also near the E2 hypocenter, suggest that E2 was likely dynamically triggered. Differences in deep earthquake rupture behavior are commonly attributed to variations in thermal state between subduction zones. However, the marked difference in rupture behavior of the nearby Peru doublet events suggests that local variations of stress state and material properties significantly contribute to diverse behavior of deep earthquakes.

Seismic and Aseismic Slip Surrounding the 2014 Mw 8.2 Pisagua (Chile) rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrivastava, M. N.; Gonzalez, G.; Salazar, P.; Moreno, M.; Baez, J. C.

2017-12-01

On April 1 2014, the Mw 8.2 Pisagua earthquake occurred in a part of standing seismic gap northern Chile. We inverted the cGPS time series for coseismic slip of mainshock and big aftershock Mw 7.6 on April 3, 2014 individually. The big aftershock Mw 7.6 occurred in south of the coseismic slip region of main shock. The coseismic slip model suggest that it has an asperity of single patch has slipped during the Pisagua earthquake and confined in the inter-seismically highly locked region. It seems that Iquique ridge fragmented northern Chile seismic gap region. It could provide small asperity, which has broken partial discretely. The spatial distribution of afterslip from the inversion of cGPS time series is consistent and appears in two patches to cover north and south of the mainshock coseismic slip patch. The afterslip patches suggest that the maximum cumulative afterslip 50cm is located at ˜19.0°S to the north of the mainshock rupture zone and down dip 38km. The estimated postseismic moment released in the first 60-days of afterslip is equivalent to an earthquake of Mw 7.43. The 60-days 306 aftershocks (Mw>3.0) has confined in the mainshock slip and southern afterslip region. With the afterslip model 60-days, it concludes that aftershocks distribution not only depends on Coulomb stress changes but also the locking degree of region/heterogeneity of the plate interface. Seismic slip is restricted in the southern locked region, but aseismic slip in the northern low locking region. It means the southern portion of the northern Chile is still non-ruptured. It can break with great megathrust earthquake in future. Therefore, it is essential to scrutinize the slip deficit by using a space geodetic technique to assess earthquake potential. The northern patch of the afterslip is purely aseismic as stable sliding confined in the low locking region, however the southern patch afterslip seismically as unstable stick-slip dominating. It suggests that afterslip illuminates the velocity strengthening in the northern patch and velocity weakening in the southern patch.

Determination of the fault plane and rupture size of the 2013 Santa Cruz earthquake, Bolivia, 5.2 Mw, by relative location of the aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivadeneyra-Vera, C.; Assumpção, M.; Minaya, E.; Aliaga, P.; Avila, G.

2016-11-01

The Central Andes of southern Bolivia is a highly seismic region with many active faults, that could generate earthquakes up to 8.9 Mw. In 2013, an earthquake of 5.2 Mw occurred in Santa Cruz de la Sierra, in the sub-Andean belt, close to the Mandeyapecua fault, one of the most important reverse faults in Bolivia. Five larger aftershocks were reported by the International Seismological Centre (ISC) and 33 smaller aftershocks were recorded by the San Calixto Observatory (OSC) in the two months after the mainshock. Distances between epicenters of the events were up to 36 km, which is larger than expected for an earthquake of this magnitude. Using data from South American regional stations and the relative location technique with Rayleigh waves, the epicenters of the five larger aftershocks of the Santa Cruz series were determined in relation to the mainshock. This method enabled to achieve epicentral locations with uncertainties smaller than 1 km. Additionally, using data of three Bolivian stations (MOC, SIV and LPAZ) eight smaller aftershocks, recorded by the OSC, were relocated through correlation of P and S waves. The results show a NNW-SSE trend of epicenters and suggest an E dipping plane. The maximum distance between the aftershocks is 14 km, which is not consistent with the expected subsurface rupture length, in accordance with the magnitude of the mainshock. The events are located away from the Mandeyapecua fault and show an opposite dip, demonstrating that these events were generated by another fault in the area, that had not been well studied yet.

The Stress Transfer and Seismic Interaction Revealed by the Aftershocks of the 2011 Van Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konca, A. O.; Işık, S. E.; Karabulut, H.

2016-12-01

We studied the aftershocks of the 2011 Mw7.2 Van, Eastern Turkey, earthquake. This earthquake ruptured an E-W striking blind thrust fault in a region where N-S convergence of the Arabian and Anatolian Plates dominate the tectonic regime. The double-difference relocation of the aftershocks reveal a Z pattern, where in addition to the E-W lineated aftershocks, perpendicular N-S lineated acitivities at each end of the co-seismic rupture are observed. The depths of the aftershocks associated with these two clusters get shallower as their location gets further away from the main fault. Both of the clusters inititated during the first 6 hours following the mainshock and spread away from the mainshock zone in the following days. The focal mechanisms of these aftershocks show that these two clusters are associated with left lateral faults with N-S strikes. These two left-lateral faults seem to cut the Van Fault and possibly determined the co-seismic rupture extent during the 2011 earthquake. This suggested geometry where two off-set left-lateral faults which are connected by a thrust fault is consistent with N-S convergence in the region and also helps explain the post-seismic GPS motion which is not consistent with a single thrust fault. In addition, a third strike-slip cluster to the south of the mainshock has initiated 17 days following the mainshock. This third cluster is associated with an E-W trending right-lateral fault. All of the three activated clusters are on faults which experienced Coulomb stress increase due to the co-seismic slip. Moreover, most seismic activity in the vicinity of the mainshock is on regions where there is Coulomb stress increase.

Source complexity of the 1987 Whittier Narrows, California, earthquake from the inversion of strong motion records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, S.; Iida, M.

1990-01-01

Strong motion records for the Whittier Narrows earthquake are inverted to obtain the history of slip. Both constant rupture velocity models and variable rupture velocity models are considered. The results show a complex rupture process within a relatively small source volume, with at least four separate concentrations of slip. Two sources are associated with the hypocenter, the larger having a slip of 55-90 cm, depending on the rupture model. These sources have a radius of approximately 2-3 km and are ringed by a region of reduced slip. The aftershocks fall within this low slip annulus. Other sources with slips from 40 to 70 cm each ring the central source region and the aftershock pattern. All the sources are predominantly thrust, although some minor right-lateral strike-slip motion is seen. The overall dimensions of the Whittier earthquake from the strong motion inversions is 10 km long (along the strike) and 6 km wide (down the dip). The preferred dip is 30?? and the preferred average rupture velocity is 2.5 km/s. Moment estimates range from 7.4 to 10.0 ?? 1024 dyn cm, depending on the rupture model. -Authors

Modeling Events in the Lower Imperial Valley Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, X.; Wei, S.; Zhan, Z.; Fielding, E. J.; Helmberger, D. V.

2010-12-01

The Imperial Valley below the US-Mexican border has few seismic stations but many significant earthquakes. Many of these events, such as the recent El Mayor-Cucapah event, have complex mechanisms involving a mixture of strike-slip and normal slip patterns with now over 30 aftershocks with magnitude over 4.5. Unfortunately, many earthquake records from the Southern Imperial Valley display a great deal of complexity, ie., strong Rayleigh wave multipathing and extended codas. In short, regional recordings in the US are too complex to easily separate source properties from complex propagation. Fortunately, the Dec 30 foreshock (Mw=5.9) has excellent recordings teleseismically and regionally, and moreover is observed with InSAR. We use this simple strike-slip event to calibrate paths. In particular, we are finding record segments involving Pnl (including depth phases) and some surface waves (mostly Love waves) that appear well behaved, ie., can be approximated by synthetics from 1D local models and events modeled with the Cut-and-Paste (CAP) routine. Simple events can then be identified along with path calibration. Modeling the more complicated paths can be started with known mechanisms. We will report on both the aftershocks and historic events.