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Sample records for aftershock sequence model

  1. Implications of an inverse branching aftershock sequence model.

    PubMed

    Turcotte, D L; Abaimov, S G; Dobson, I; Rundle, J B

    2009-01-01

    The branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model is a self-similar statistical model for earthquake aftershock sequences. A prescribed parent earthquake generates a first generation of daughter aftershocks. The magnitudes and times of occurrence of the daughters are obtained from statistical distributions. The first generation daughter aftershocks then become parent earthquakes that generate second generation aftershocks. The process is then extended to higher generations. The key parameter in the BASS model is the magnitude difference Deltam* between the parent earthquake and the largest expected daughter earthquake. In the application of the BASS model to aftershocks Deltam* is positive, the largest expected daughter event is smaller than the parent, and the sequence of events (aftershocks) usually dies out, but an exponential growth in the number of events with time is also possible. In this paper we explore this behavior of the BASS model as Deltam* varies, including when Deltam* is negative and the largest expected daughter event is larger than the parent. The applications of this self-similar branching process to biology and other fields are discussed.

  2. A random effects epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Feng-Chang

    2013-01-01

    We consider an extension of the temporal epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model with random effects as a special case of a well-known doubly stochastic self-exciting point process. The new model arises from a deterministic function that is randomly scaled by a nonnegative random variable, which is unobservable but assumed to follow either positive stable or one-parameter gamma distribution with unit mean. Both random effects models are of interest although the one-parameter gamma random effects model is more popular when modeling associated survival times. Our estimation is based on the maximum likelihood approach with marginalized intensity. The methods are shown to perform well in simulation experiments. When applied to an earthquake sequence on the east coast of Taiwan, the extended model with positive stable random effects provides a better model fit, compared to the original ETAS model and the extended model with one-parameter gamma random effects. PMID:24039322

  3. A random effects epidemic-type aftershock sequence model.

    PubMed

    Lin, Feng-Chang

    2011-04-01

    We consider an extension of the temporal epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model with random effects as a special case of a well-known doubly stochastic self-exciting point process. The new model arises from a deterministic function that is randomly scaled by a nonnegative random variable, which is unobservable but assumed to follow either positive stable or one-parameter gamma distribution with unit mean. Both random effects models are of interest although the one-parameter gamma random effects model is more popular when modeling associated survival times. Our estimation is based on the maximum likelihood approach with marginalized intensity. The methods are shown to perform well in simulation experiments. When applied to an earthquake sequence on the east coast of Taiwan, the extended model with positive stable random effects provides a better model fit, compared to the original ETAS model and the extended model with one-parameter gamma random effects.

  4. A Variety of Aftershock Decays in the Rate- and State-Friction Model Due to the Effect of Secondary Aftershocks: Implications Derived from an Analysis of Real Aftershock Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iwata, Takaki

    2016-01-01

    The model based on rate- and state-dependent friction law reproduces the temporal decay of an aftershock sequence with the p value of the Omori-Utsu law equal to 1, if we simply assume a constant stress rate over time. However, because p values vary in real aftershock sequences, this model requires some modification. This study examined the effect of secondary aftershocks on the variety of the p value. A large aftershock causes a stepwise stress increase in the aftershock area, and the expected seismicity rate derived from the friction law also increases abruptly. These multiple increases in the seismicity rate during its decay following a mainshock could cause variation in the apparent p value. In this study, a model incorporating this idea is applied to two aftershock sequences observed in Japan and is shown to substantially modify the modeling of aftershock activity.

  5. Statistical Variability and Tokunaga Branching of Aftershock Sequences Utilizing BASS Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoder, Mark R.; Van Aalsburg, Jordan; Turcotte, Donald L.; Abaimov, Sergey G.; Rundle, John B.

    2013-01-01

    Aftershock statistics provide a wealth of data that can be used to better understand earthquake physics. Aftershocks satisfy scale-invariant Gutenberg-Richter (GR) frequency-magnitude statistics. They also satisfy Omori's law for power-law seismicity rate decay and Båth's law for maximum-magnitude scaling. The branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model, which is the scale-invariant limit of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model (ETAS), uses these scaling laws to generate synthetic aftershock sequences. One objective of this paper is to show that the branching process in these models satisfies Tokunaga branching statistics. Tokunaga branching statistics were originally developed for drainage networks and have been subsequently shown to be valid in many other applications associated with complex phenomena. Specifically, these are characteristic of a universality class in statistical physics associated with diffusion-limited aggregation. We first present a deterministic version of the BASS model and show that it satisfies the Tokunaga side-branching statistics. We then show that a fully stochastic BASS simulation gives similar results. We also study foreshock statistics using our BASS simulations. We show that the frequency-magnitude statistics in BASS simulations scale as the exponential of the magnitude difference between the mainshock and the foreshock, inverse GR scaling. We also show that the rate of foreshock occurrence in BASS simulations decays inversely with the time difference between foreshock and mainshock, an inverse Omori scaling. Both inverse scaling laws have been previously introduced empirically to explain observed foreshock statistics. Observations have demonstrated both of these scaling relations to be valid, consistent with our simulations. ETAS simulations, in general, do not generate Båth's law and do not generate inverse GR scaling.

  6. Distribution of the largest event in the critical epidemic-type aftershock-sequence model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vere-Jones, David; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2008-10-01

    This Brief Report corrects and extends the results of Zhuang and Ogata [Phys. Rev. E 73, 046134 (2006)] on the asymptotic behavior of the largest event in the epidemic-type aftershock-sequence model for earthquake occurrence. We show that, in the special case that the underlying branching process is critical, there exists a previously unnoticed mode of behavior, which occurs when the expected family size grows relatively slowly.

  7. Distribution of the largest event in the critical epidemic-type aftershock-sequence model.

    PubMed

    Vere-Jones, David; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2008-10-01

    This Brief Report corrects and extends the results of Zhuang and Ogata [Phys. Rev. E 73, 046134 (2006)] on the asymptotic behavior of the largest event in the epidemic-type aftershock-sequence model for earthquake occurrence. We show that, in the special case that the underlying branching process is critical, there exists a previously unnoticed mode of behavior, which occurs when the expected family size grows relatively slowly.

  8. Computational Software for Fitting Seismic Data to Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, A.

    2014-12-01

    Modern earthquake catalogs are often analyzed using spatial-temporal point process models such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). My work introduces software to implement two of ETAS models described in Ogata (1998). To find the Maximum-Likelihood Estimates (MLEs), my software provides estimates of the homogeneous background rate parameter and the temporal and spatial parameters that govern triggering effects by applying the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm introduced in Veen and Schoenberg (2008). Despite other computer programs exist for similar data modeling purpose, using EM-algorithm has the benefits of stability and robustness (Veen and Schoenberg, 2008). Spatial shapes that are very long and narrow cause difficulties in optimization convergence and problems with flat or multi-modal log-likelihood functions encounter similar issues. My program uses a robust method to preset a parameter to overcome the non-convergence computational issue. In addition to model fitting, the software is equipped with useful tools for examining modeling fitting results, for example, visualization of estimated conditional intensity, and estimation of expected number of triggered aftershocks. A simulation generator is also given with flexible spatial shapes that may be defined by the user. This open-source software has a very simple user interface. The user may execute it on a local computer, and the program also has potential to be hosted online. Java language is used for the software's core computing part and an optional interface to the statistical package R is provided.

  9. Applications of the predictability of the Coherent Noise Model to aftershock sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christopoulos, Stavros-Richard; Sarlis, Nicholas

    2014-05-01

    A study [1] of the coherent noise model [2-4] in natural time [5-7] has shown that it exhibits predictability. Interestingly, one of the predictors suggested [1] for the coherent noise model can be generalized and applied to the case of (real) aftershock sequences. The results obtained [8] so far are beyond chance. Here, we apply this approach to several aftershock sequences of strong earthquakes with magnitudes Mw ≥6.9 in Indonesia, California and Greece, including the Mw9.2 earthquake that occurred on 26 December 2004 in Sumatra. References. [1] N. V. Sarlis and S.-R. G. Christopoulos, Predictability of the coherent-noise model and its applications, Physical Review E, 85, 051136, 2012. [2] M.E.J. Newman, Self-organized criticality, evolution and the fossil extinction record, Proc. R. Soc. London B, 263, 1605-1610, 1996. [3] M. E. J. Newman and K. Sneppen, Avalanches, scaling, and coherent noise, Phys. Rev. E, 54, 6226-6231, 1996. [4] K. Sneppen and M. Newman, Coherent noise, scale invariance and intermittency in large systems, Physica D, 110, 209 - 222. [5] P. Varotsos, N. Sarlis, and E. Skordas, Spatiotemporal complexity aspects on the interrelation between Seismic Electric Signals and seismicity, Practica of Athens Academy, 76, 294-321, 2001. [6] P.A. Varotsos, N.V. Sarlis, and E.S. Skordas, Long-range correlations in the electric signals that precede rupture, Phys. Rev. E, 66, 011902, 2002. [7] Varotsos P. A., Sarlis N. V. and Skordas E. S., Natural Time Analysis: The new view of time. Precursory Seismic Electric Signals, Earthquakes and other Complex Time-Series (Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg) 2011. [8] N. V. Sarlis and S.-R. G. Christopoulos, "Visualization of the significance of Receiver Operating Characteristics based on confidence ellipses", Computer Physics Communications, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cpc.2013.12.009

  10. Explanation of temporal clustering of tsunami sources using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, Eric L.

    2014-01-01

    Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is examined in terms of a branching process model. It previously was observed that there are more short interevent times between consecutive tsunami sources than expected from a stationary Poisson process. The epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching process model is fitted to tsunami catalog events, using the earthquake magnitude of the causative event from the Centennial and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogs and tsunami sizes above a completeness level as a mark to indicate that a tsunami was generated. The ETAS parameters are estimated using the maximum‐likelihood method. The interevent distribution associated with the ETAS model provides a better fit to the data than the Poisson model or other temporal clustering models. When tsunamigenic conditions (magnitude threshold, submarine location, dip‐slip mechanism) are applied to the Global CMT catalog, ETAS parameters are obtained that are consistent with those estimated from the tsunami catalog. In particular, the dip‐slip condition appears to result in a near zero magnitude effect for triggered tsunami sources. The overall consistency between results from the tsunami catalog and that from the earthquake catalog under tsunamigenic conditions indicates that ETAS models based on seismicity can provide the structure for understanding patterns of tsunami source occurrence. The fractional rate of triggered tsunami sources on a global basis is approximately 14%.

  11. Modeling aftershocks as a stretched exponential relaxation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mignan, A.

    2015-11-01

    The decay rate of aftershocks has been modeled as a power law since the pioneering work of Omori in the late nineteenth century. Although other expressions have been proposed in recent decades to describe the temporal behavior of aftershocks, the number of model comparisons remains limited. After reviewing the aftershock models published from the late nineteenth century until today, I solely compare the power law, pure exponential and stretched exponential expressions defined in their simplest forms. By applying statistical methods recommended recently in applied mathematics, I show that all aftershock sequences tested in three regional earthquake catalogs (Southern and Northern California, Taiwan) and with three declustering techniques (nearest-neighbor, second-order moment, window methods) follow a stretched exponential instead of a power law. These results infer that aftershocks are due to a simple relaxation process, in accordance with most other relaxation processes observed in Nature.

  12. Magnitude-dependent epidemic-type aftershock sequences model for earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spassiani, Ilaria; Sebastiani, Giovanni

    2016-04-01

    We propose a version of the pure temporal epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model: the ETAS model with correlated magnitudes. As for the standard case, we assume the Gutenberg-Richter law to be the probability density for the magnitudes of the background events. Instead, the magnitude of the triggered shocks is assumed to be probabilistically dependent on that of the relative mother events. This probabilistic dependence is motivated by some recent works in the literature and by the results of a statistical analysis made on some seismic catalogs [Spassiani and Sebastiani, J. Geophys. Res. 121, 903 (2016), 10.1002/2015JB012398]. On the basis of the experimental evidences obtained in the latter paper for the real catalogs, we theoretically derive the probability density function for the magnitudes of the triggered shocks proposed in Spassiani and Sebastiani and there used for the analysis of two simulated catalogs. To this aim, we impose a fundamental condition: averaging over all the magnitudes of the mother events, we must obtain again the Gutenberg-Richter law. This ensures the validity of this law at any event's generation when ignoring past seismicity. The ETAS model with correlated magnitudes is then theoretically analyzed here. In particular, we use the tool of the probability generating function and the Palm theory, in order to derive an approximation of the probability of zero events in a small time interval and to interpret the results in terms of the interevent time between consecutive shocks, the latter being a very useful random variable in the assessment of seismic hazard.

  13. Magnitude-dependent epidemic-type aftershock sequences model for earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Spassiani, Ilaria; Sebastiani, Giovanni

    2016-04-01

    We propose a version of the pure temporal epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model: the ETAS model with correlated magnitudes. As for the standard case, we assume the Gutenberg-Richter law to be the probability density for the magnitudes of the background events. Instead, the magnitude of the triggered shocks is assumed to be probabilistically dependent on that of the relative mother events. This probabilistic dependence is motivated by some recent works in the literature and by the results of a statistical analysis made on some seismic catalogs [Spassiani and Sebastiani, J. Geophys. Res. 121, 903 (2016)10.1002/2015JB012398]. On the basis of the experimental evidences obtained in the latter paper for the real catalogs, we theoretically derive the probability density function for the magnitudes of the triggered shocks proposed in Spassiani and Sebastiani and there used for the analysis of two simulated catalogs. To this aim, we impose a fundamental condition: averaging over all the magnitudes of the mother events, we must obtain again the Gutenberg-Richter law. This ensures the validity of this law at any event's generation when ignoring past seismicity. The ETAS model with correlated magnitudes is then theoretically analyzed here. In particular, we use the tool of the probability generating function and the Palm theory, in order to derive an approximation of the probability of zero events in a small time interval and to interpret the results in terms of the interevent time between consecutive shocks, the latter being a very useful random variable in the assessment of seismic hazard.

  14. Magnitude-dependent epidemic-type aftershock sequences model for earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Spassiani, Ilaria; Sebastiani, Giovanni

    2016-04-01

    We propose a version of the pure temporal epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model: the ETAS model with correlated magnitudes. As for the standard case, we assume the Gutenberg-Richter law to be the probability density for the magnitudes of the background events. Instead, the magnitude of the triggered shocks is assumed to be probabilistically dependent on that of the relative mother events. This probabilistic dependence is motivated by some recent works in the literature and by the results of a statistical analysis made on some seismic catalogs [Spassiani and Sebastiani, J. Geophys. Res. 121, 903 (2016)10.1002/2015JB012398]. On the basis of the experimental evidences obtained in the latter paper for the real catalogs, we theoretically derive the probability density function for the magnitudes of the triggered shocks proposed in Spassiani and Sebastiani and there used for the analysis of two simulated catalogs. To this aim, we impose a fundamental condition: averaging over all the magnitudes of the mother events, we must obtain again the Gutenberg-Richter law. This ensures the validity of this law at any event's generation when ignoring past seismicity. The ETAS model with correlated magnitudes is then theoretically analyzed here. In particular, we use the tool of the probability generating function and the Palm theory, in order to derive an approximation of the probability of zero events in a small time interval and to interpret the results in terms of the interevent time between consecutive shocks, the latter being a very useful random variable in the assessment of seismic hazard. PMID:27176281

  15. Sequence-based Parameter Estimation for an Epidemiological Temporal Aftershock Forecasting Model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jalayer, Fatemeh; Ebrahimian, Hossein

    2014-05-01

    Introduction The first few days elapsed after the occurrence of a strong earthquake and in the presence of an ongoing aftershock sequence are quite critical for emergency decision-making purposes. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are used frequently for forecasting the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity in the short-term (Ogata, 1988). The ETAS models are epidemic stochastic point process models in which every earthquake is a potential triggering event for subsequent earthquakes. The ETAS model parameters are usually calibrated a priori and based on a set of events that do not belong to the on-going seismic sequence (Marzocchi and Lombardi 2009). However, adaptive model parameter estimation, based on the events in the on-going sequence, may have several advantages such as, tuning the model to the specific sequence characteristics, and capturing possible variations in time of the model parameters. Simulation-based methods can be employed in order to provide a robust estimate for the spatio-temporal seismicity forecasts in a prescribed forecasting time interval (i.e., a day) within a post-main shock environment. This robust estimate takes into account the uncertainty in the model parameters expressed as the posterior joint probability distribution for the model parameters conditioned on the events that have already occurred (i.e., before the beginning of the forecasting interval) in the on-going seismic sequence. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation scheme is used herein in order to sample directly from the posterior probability distribution for ETAS model parameters. Moreover, the sequence of events that is going to occur during the forecasting interval (and hence affecting the seismicity in an epidemic type model like ETAS) is also generated through a stochastic procedure. The procedure leads to two spatio-temporal outcomes: (1) the probability distribution for the forecasted number of events, and (2) the uncertainty in estimating the

  16. Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-04-01

    Because aftershock occurrences can cause significant seismic risks for a considerable time after the main shock, prospective forecasting of the intermediate-term aftershock activity as soon as possible is important. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model with the maximum likelihood estimate effectively reproduces general aftershock activity including secondary or higher-order aftershocks and can be employed for the forecasting. However, because we cannot always expect the accurate parameter estimation from incomplete early aftershock data where many events are missing, such forecasting using only a single estimated parameter set (plug-in forecasting) can frequently perform poorly. Therefore, we here propose Bayesian forecasting that combines the forecasts by the ETAS model with various probable parameter sets given the data. By conducting forecasting tests of 1 month period aftershocks based on the first 1 day data after the main shock as an example of the early intermediate-term forecasting, we show that the Bayesian forecasting performs better than the plug-in forecasting on average in terms of the log-likelihood score. Furthermore, to improve forecasting of large aftershocks, we apply a nonparametric (NP) model using magnitude data during the learning period and compare its forecasting performance with that of the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) formula. We show that the NP forecast performs better than the G-R formula in some cases but worse in other cases. Therefore, robust forecasting can be obtained by employing an ensemble forecast that combines the two complementary forecasts. Our proposed method is useful for a stable unbiased intermediate-term assessment of aftershock probabilities.

  17. Properties of aftershock sequences in southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kisslinger, Carl; Jones, Lucile M.

    1991-07-01

    The temporal behavior of 39 aftershock sequences in southern California, 1933-1988, was modeled by the modified Omori relation. Minimum magnitudes for completeness of each sequence catalog were determined, and the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters K, p, and c, with the standard errors on each, were determined by the Ogata algorithm. The b value of each sequence was also calculated. Many of the active faults in the region, both strike slip and thrust, were sampled. The p values were graded in terms of the size of the standard error relative to the p value itself. Most of the sequences were modeled well by the Omori relation. Many of the sequences had p values close to the mean of the whole data set, 1.11±0.25, but values significantly different from the mean, as low as 0.7 and as high as 1.8, exist. No correlation of p with either the b value of the sequence or the mainshock magnitude was found. The results suggest a direct correlation of p values is with surface heat flow, with high values in the Salton Trough (high heat flow) and one low value in the San Bernardino Mountains and on the edge of the Ventura Basin (both low heat flow). The large fraction of the sequences with p values near the mean are at locations where the heat flow is near the regional mean, 74 mW/m2. If the hypothesis that aftershock decay rate is controlled by temperature at depth is valid, the effects of other factors such as heterogeneity of the fault zone properties are superimposed on the background rate determined by temperature. Surface heat flow is taken as an indicator of crustal temperature at hypocentral depths, but the effects on heat flow of convective heat transport and variations in near-surface thermal conductivity invalidate any simple association of local variations in heat flow with details of the subsurface temperature distribution. The interpretation is that higher temperatures in the aftershock source volume caused shortened stress relaxation times in the fault

  18. How Long is an Aftershock Sequence?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Godano, Cataldo; Tramelli, Anna

    2016-07-01

    The occurrence of a mainschok is always followed by aftershocks spatially distributed within the fault area. The aftershocks rate decay with time is described by the empirical Omori law which was inferred by catalogues analysis. The sequences discrimination within catalogues is not a straightforward operation, especially for low-magnitude mainshocks. Here, we describe the rate decay of the Omori law obtained using different sequence discrimination tools and we discover that, when the background seismicity is excluded, the sequences tend to last for the temporal extension of the catalogue.

  19. Processing Aftershock Sequences Using Waveform Correlation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Resor, M. E.; Procopio, M. J.; Young, C. J.; Carr, D. B.

    2008-12-01

    For most event monitoring systems, the objective is to keep up with the flow of incoming data, producing a bulletin with some modest, relatively constant, time delay after present time, often a period of a few hours or less. Because the association problem scales exponentially and not linearly with the number of detections, a dramatic increase in seismicity due to an aftershock sequence can easily cause the bulletin delay time to increase dramatically. In some cases, the production of a bulletin may cease altogether, until the automatic system can catch up. For a nuclear monitoring system, the implications of such a delay could be dire. Given the expected similarity between a mainshock and aftershocks, it has been proposed that waveform correlation may provide a powerful means to simultaneously increase the efficiency of processing aftershock sequences, while also lowering the detection threshold and improving the quality of the event solutions. However, many questions remain unanswered. What are the key parameters for achieving the best correlations between waveforms (window length, filtering, etc.), and are they sequence-dependent? What is the overall percentage of similar events in an aftershock sequence, i.e. what is the maximum level of efficiency that a waveform correlation could be expected to achieve? Finally, how does this percentage of events vary among sequences? Using data from the aftershock sequence for the December 26, 2004 Mw 9.1 Sumatra event, we investigate these issues by building and testing a prototype waveform correlation event detection system that automatically expands its library of known events as new signatures are indentified in the aftershock sequence (by traditional signal detection and event processing). Our system tests all incoming data against this dynamic library, thereby identify any similar events before traditional processing takes place. In the region surrounding the Sumatra event, the NEIC EDR contains 4997 events in the 9

  20. Model for the Distribution of Aftershock Interoccurrence Times

    SciTech Connect

    Shcherbakov, Robert; Yakovlev, Gleb; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2005-11-18

    In this work the distribution of interoccurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the generalized Omori's law for the decay of aftershocks is used as a time-dependent rate in the NHP process. The analytically derived distribution of interoccurrence times is applied to several major aftershock sequences in California to confirm the validity of the proposed hypothesis.

  1. Model for the distribution of aftershock interoccurrence times.

    PubMed

    Shcherbakov, Robert; Yakovlev, Gleb; Turcotte, Donald L; Rundle, John B

    2005-11-18

    In this work the distribution of interoccurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the generalized Omori's law for the decay of aftershocks is used as a time-dependent rate in the NHP process. The analytically derived distribution of interoccurrence times is applied to several major aftershock sequences in California to confirm the validity of the proposed hypothesis.

  2. Aftershocks triggered by fluid intrusion: Evidence for the aftershock sequence occurred 2014 in West Bohemia/Vogtland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hainzl, S.; Fischer, T.; Čermáková, H.; Bachura, M.; Vlček, J.

    2016-04-01

    The West Bohemia/Vogtland region, central Europe, is well known for its repeating swarm activity. However, the latest activity in 2014, although spatially overlapping with previous swarm activity, consisted of three classical aftershock sequences triggered by ML3.5, 4.4, and 3.5 events. To decode the apparent system change from swarm-type to mainshock-aftershock characteristics, we have analyzed the details of the major ML4.4 sequence based on focal mechanisms and relocated earthquake data. Our analysis shows that the mainshock occurred with rotated mechanism in a step over region of the fault plane, unfavorably oriented to the regional stress field. Most of its intense aftershock activity occurred in-plane with classical characteristics such as (i) the maximum magnitude of the aftershocks is significantly less than the mainshock magnitude and (ii) the decay can be well fitted by the Omori-Utsu law. However, the absolute number of aftershocks and the fitted Omori-Utsu c and p parameters are much larger than for typical sequences. By means of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, we show that an additional aseismic source with an exponentially decaying strength triggered a large fraction of the aftershocks. Corresponding pore pressure simulations with an exponentially decreasing flow rate of the fluid source show a good agreement with the observed spatial migration front of the aftershocks extending approximately with log(t). Thus, we conclude that the mainshock opened fluid pathways from a finite fluid source into the fault plane explaining the unusual high rate of aftershocks, the migration patterns, and the exponential decrease of the aseismic signal.

  3. Triggered Swarms and Induced Aftershock Sequences in Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shcherbakov, R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Yikilmaz, M. B.; Kellogg, L. H.; Rundle, J. B.

    2015-12-01

    Natural geothermal systems, which are used for energy generation, are usually associated with high seismic activity. This can be related to the large-scale injection and extraction of fluids to enhance geothermal recovery. This results in the changes of the pore pressure and pore-elastic stress field and can stimulate the occurrence of earthquakes. These systems are also prone to triggering of seismicity by the passage of seismic waves generated by large distant main shocks. In this study, we analyze clustering and triggering of seismicity at several geothermal fields in California. Particularly, we consider the seismicity at the Geysers, Coso, and Salton Sea geothermal fields. We analyze aftershock sequences generated by local large events with magnitudes greater than 4.0 and earthquake swarms generated by several significant long distant main shocks. We show that the rate of the aftershock sequences generated by the local large events in the two days before and two days after the reference event can be modelled reasonably well by the time dependent Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. On the other hand, the swarms of activity triggered by large distant earthquakes cannot be described by the ETAS model. To model the increase in the rate of seismicity associated with triggering by large distant main shocks we introduce an additional time-dependent triggering mechanism into the ETAS model. In almost all cases the frequency-magnitude statistics of triggered sequences follow Gutenberg-Richter scaling to a good approximation. The analysis indicates that the seismicity triggered by relatively large local events can initiate sequences similar to regular aftershock sequences. In contrast, the distant main shocks trigger swarm like activity with faster decaying rates.

  4. The Aftershock Risk Index - quantification of aftershock impacts during ongoing strong-seismic sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefer, Andreas; Daniell, James; Khazai, Bijan; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2016-04-01

    The occurrence and impact of strong earthquakes often triggers the long-lasting impact of a seismic sequence. Strong earthquakes are generally followed by many aftershocks or even strong subsequently triggered ruptures. The Nepal 2015 earthquake sequence is one of the most recent examples where aftershocks significantly contributed to human and economic losses. In addition, rumours about upcoming mega-earthquakes, false predictions and on-going cycles of aftershocks induced a psychological burden on the society, which caused panic, additional casualties and prevented people from returning to normal life. This study shows the current phase of development of an operationalised aftershock intensity index, which will contribute to the mitigation of aftershock hazard. Hereby, various methods of earthquake forecasting and seismic risk assessments are utilised and an integration of the inherent aftershock intensity is performed. A spatio-temporal analysis of past earthquake clustering provides first-hand data about the nature of aftershock occurrence. Epidemic methods can additionally provide time-dependent variation indices of the cascading effects of aftershock generation. The aftershock hazard is often combined with the potential for significant losses through the vulnerability of structural systems and population. A historical database of aftershock socioeconomic effects from CATDAT has been used in order to calibrate the index based on observed impacts of historical events and their aftershocks. In addition, analytical analysis of cyclic behaviour and fragility functions of various building typologies are explored. The integration of many different probabilistic computation methods will provide a combined index parameter which can then be transformed into an easy-to-read spatio-temporal intensity index. The index provides daily updated information about the probability of the inherent seismic risk of aftershocks by providing a scalable scheme fordifferent aftershock

  5. The (Un)Productivity of the 2014 M6.0 South Napa Aftershock Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.

    2014-12-01

    The M6.0 South Napa mainshock produced fewer aftershocks than expected for a California earthquake of its magnitude, which became apparent a few days into the sequence. In the first 4.5 days, only 59 M≥1.8 aftershocks had occurred, the largest of which was a M3.9 that happened a little over two days after the mainshock. In contrast, during the same time period the 2004 M6.0 Parkfield earthquake had over 220 M≥1.8 aftershocks, 6 of which were M≥4. Here I investigate the aftershock productivity and other sequence statistics of the South Napa sequence and compare it with other M~6 California mainshock-aftershock sequences. By focusing on similar size events, they have similar finite extents within the seismotectonic environment. While the productivities of these sequences vary quite a bit, the b-values of the magnitude-frequency distributions all fall in the 0.6-0.8 range for the northern California sequences, slightly lower than the b-value of ~1 typical of southern California seismicity. Despite the relatively low productivity of the South Napa sequence, I show that the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988) describes the sequence well and investigate whether the ETAS model parameters suggest that low-productivity sequences are typical for the region. I also explore how quickly after a mainshock these types of models can capture the low productivity of the sequence. The productivity of a sequence is a critical parameter in determining the aftershock probabilities reported in the days following the mainshock. Therefore, the sooner an accurate representation of the aftershock productivity can be obtained, the sooner more accurate aftershock probability reports can be produced.

  6. Time-dependent Induced Seismicity Rates Described with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence Model at The Geysers Geothermal Field, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, C. W.; Totten, E. J.; Burgmann, R.

    2015-12-01

    To improve understanding of the link between injection/production activity and seismicity, we apply an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model to an earthquake catalog from The Geysers geothermal field (GGF) between 2005-2015 using >140,000 events and Mc 0.8 . We partition the catalog along a northeast-southwest trending divide, which corresponds to regions of high and low levels of enhanced geothermal stimulation (EGS) across the field. The ETAS model is fit to the seismicity data using a 6-month sliding window with a 1-month time step to determine the background seismicity rate. We generate monthly time series of the time-dependent background seismicity rate in 1-km depth intervals from 0-5km. The average wellhead depth is 2-3 km and the background seismicity rates above this depth do not correlate well with field-wide injected masses over the time period of interest. The auto correlation results show a 12-month period for monthly time series proximal to the average wellhead depths (2-3km and 3-4km) for northwest GGF strongly correlates with field-wide fluid injection masses, with a four-month phase shift between the two depth intervals as fluid migrates deeper. This periodicity is not observed for the deeper depth interval of 4-5 km, where monthly background seismicity rates reduce to near zero. Cross-correlation analysis using the monthly time series for background seismicity rate and the field-wide injection, production and net injection (injection minus production) suggest that injection most directly modulates seismicity. Periodicity in the background seismicity is not observed as strongly in the time series for the southeast field. We suggest that the variation in background seismicity rate is a proxy for pore-pressure diffusion of injected fluids at depth. We deduce that the contrast between the background seismicity rates in the northwest and southeast GGF is a result of reduced EGS activity in the southeast region.

  7. Foreshocks and Aftershocks in Simple Earthquake Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.; Dominguez, R.; Kazemian, J.; González, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    Natural earthquake fault systems are highly heterogeneous in space; inhomogeneities occur because the earth is made of a variety of materials of different strengths and dissipate stress differently. Because the spatial arrangement of these materials is dependent on the geologic history, the distribution of these various materials can be quite complex and occur over a wide range of length scales. Despite their inhomogeneous nature, real faults are often modeled as spatially homogeneous systems. Here we present a simple earthquake fault model based on the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) and Rundle-Jackson-Brown (RJB) cellular automata models with long-range interactions that incorporates a fixed percentage of stronger sites, or 'asperity cells', into the lattice. These asperity cells are significantly stronger than the surrounding lattice sites but eventually rupture when the applied stress reaches their higher threshold stress. The introduction of these spatial heterogeneities results in temporal clustering in the model that mimics those seen in natural fault systems. We observe sequences of activity that start with a gradually accelerating number of larger events (foreshocks) prior to a mainshock that is followed by a tail of decreasing activity (aftershocks). These recurrent large events occur at regular intervals, as is often observed in historic seismicity, and the time between events and their magnitude are a function of the stress dissipation parameter. The relative length of the foreshock to aftershock sequence depends on the amount of stress dissipation in the system, resulting in relatively long aftershock sequences when the stress dissipation is large versus long foreshock sequences when the stress dissipation is weak. This work provides further evidence that the spatial and temporal patterns observed in natural seismicity are strongly influenced by the underlying physical properties and are not solely the result of a simple cascade mechanism. We find that

  8. Static stress transfer modeling and aftershock statistics for the 2002 Nenana Mountain-Denali Park, Alaska, sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, G.; Jones, L. M.; Ji, C.

    2002-12-01

    On October 23, 2002, the Mw 6.7 Nenana Mountain earthquake occurred in central Alaska. While this was a significant event, it became even more interesting as a foreshock to the Mw 7.9 Denali Park mainshock of November 3, 2002, which was the largest earthquake to occur on land in the United States since the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake in southern California. Using a finite-fault rupture model and the theory of deformation from dislocations in an elastic half-space, we have modeled static Coulomb stress transfer from the Nenana Mountain event to the hypocentral region of the Denali Park event and find that the Nenana Mountain event transferred about 0.05--0.1 MPa (0.5--1 bar) of Coulomb stress to that area, encouraging failure of the later event. We have also computed the combined stress transferred to several large regional faults from the Nenana Mountain and Denali Park events using our Nenana Mountain and Denali Park rupture models. We find that the two main events combined transferred more than 0.05 MPa (0.5 bar) of Coulomb stress to the northern 50 km of the Cross Creek fault, a 150-km-long right-lateral strike slip fault in east-central Alaska, and up to 0.05 MPa of Coulomb stress to the Muldrow segment of the Denali fault, west of the Nenana Mountain rupture. It is worth noting, however, that these faults are nearest to the mainshock rupture and thus most prone to errors in the stress transfer modeling. Other major faults in the region, including the Tonzona, Farewell, and Boss Creek segments of the Denali fault, the Castle Mountain fault near Anchorage, and the Yakataga subduction interface, experienced insignificant static Coulomb stress changes, though dynamic stresses were probably much larger. Although the stress changes from these events are significant, the rates of aftershocks triggered by the Nenana Mountain foreshock and by the Denali Park mainshock are extremely low. We describe the rate of aftershocks with the Reasenberg and Jones formulation for

  9. Statistical estimation of the duration of aftershock sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hainzl, S.; Christophersen, A.; Rhoades, D.; Harte, D.

    2016-05-01

    It is well known that large earthquakes generally trigger aftershock sequences. However, the duration of those sequences is unclear due to the gradual power-law decay with time. The triggering time is assumed to be infinite in the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, a widely used statistical model to describe clustering phenomena in observed earthquake catalogues. This assumption leads to the constraint that the power-law exponent p of the Omori-Utsu decay has to be larger than one to avoid supercritical conditions with accelerating seismic activity on long timescales. In contrast, seismicity models based on rate- and state-dependent friction observed in laboratory experiments predict p ≤ 1 and a finite triggering time scaling inversely to the tectonic stressing rate. To investigate this conflict, we analyse an ETAS model with finite triggering times, which allow smaller values of p. We use synthetic earthquake sequences to show that the assumption of infinite triggering times can lead to a significant bias in the maximum likelihood estimates of the ETAS parameters. Furthermore, it is shown that the triggering time can be reasonably estimated using real earthquake catalogue data, although the uncertainties are large. The analysis of real earthquake catalogues indicates mainly finite triggering times in the order of 100 days to 10 years with a weak negative correlation to the background rate, in agreement with expectations of the rate- and state-friction model. The triggering time is not the same as the apparent duration, which is the time period in which aftershocks dominate the seismicity. The apparent duration is shown to be strongly dependent on the mainshock magnitude and the level of background activity. It can be much shorter than the triggering time. Finally, we perform forward simulations to estimate the effective forecasting period, which is the time period following a mainshock, in which ETAS simulations can improve rate estimates after the

  10. Anomalous power law distribution of total lifetimes of branching processes: Application to earthquake aftershock sequences

    SciTech Connect

    Saichev, A.; Sornette, D.

    2004-10-01

    We consider a general stochastic branching process, which is relevant to earthquakes, and study the distributions of global lifetimes of the branching processes. In the earthquake context, this amounts to the distribution of the total durations of aftershock sequences including aftershocks of arbitrary generation number. Our results extend previous results on the distribution of the total number of offspring (direct and indirect aftershocks in seismicity) and of the total number of generations before extinction. We consider a branching model of triggered seismicity, the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes ('aftershocks'). An aftershock sequence results in this model from the cascade of aftershocks of each past earthquake. Due to the large fluctuations of the number of aftershocks triggered directly by any earthquake ('productivity' or 'fertility'), there is a large variability of the total number of aftershocks from one sequence to another, for the same mainshock magnitude. We study the regime where the distribution of fertilities {mu} is characterized by a power law {approx}1/{mu}{sup 1+{gamma}} and the bare Omori law for the memory of previous triggering mothers decays slowly as {approx}1/t{sup 1+{theta}}, with 0<{theta}<1 relevant for earthquakes. Using the tool of generating probability functions and a quasistatic approximation which is shown to be exact asymptotically for large durations, we show that the density distribution of total aftershock lifetimes scales as {approx}1/t{sup 1+{theta}}{sup sol{gamma}} when the average branching ratio is critical (n=1). The coefficient 1<{gamma}=b/{alpha}<2 quantifies the interplay between the exponent b{approx_equal}1 of the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution {approx}10{sup -bm} and the increase {approx}10{sup {alpha}}{sup m} of the number of aftershocks with mainshock magnitude m (productivity), with 0.5<{alpha}<1. The renormalization of the

  11. Anomalous power law distribution of total lifetimes of branching processes: application to earthquake aftershock sequences.

    PubMed

    Saichev, A; Sornette, D

    2004-10-01

    We consider a general stochastic branching process, which is relevant to earthquakes, and study the distributions of global lifetimes of the branching processes. In the earthquake context, this amounts to the distribution of the total durations of aftershock sequences including aftershocks of arbitrary generation number. Our results extend previous results on the distribution of the total number of offspring (direct and indirect aftershocks in seismicity) and of the total number of generations before extinction. We consider a branching model of triggered seismicity, the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes ("aftershocks"). An aftershock sequence results in this model from the cascade of aftershocks of each past earthquake. Due to the large fluctuations of the number of aftershocks triggered directly by any earthquake ("productivity" or "fertility"), there is a large variability of the total number of aftershocks from one sequence to another, for the same mainshock magnitude. We study the regime where the distribution of fertilities mu is characterized by a power law approximately 1/ mu(1+gamma) and the bare Omori law for the memory of previous triggering mothers decays slowly as approximately 1/ t(1+theta;) , with 0aftershock lifetimes scales as approximately 1/ t(1+theta;/gamma) when the average branching ratio is critical (n=1) . The coefficient 1aftershocks with mainshock magnitude m (productivity), with 0.5

  12. Statistical monitoring of aftershock sequences: a case study of the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogata, Yosihiko; Tsuruoka, Hiroshi

    2016-03-01

    Early forecasting of aftershocks has become realistic and practical because of real-time detection of hypocenters. This study illustrates a statistical procedure for monitoring aftershock sequences to detect anomalies to increase the probability gain of a significantly large aftershock or even an earthquake larger than the main shock. In particular, a significant lowering (relative quiescence) in aftershock activity below the level predicted by the Omori-Utsu formula or the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is sometimes followed by a large earthquake in a neighboring region. As an example, we detected significant lowering relative to the modeled rate after approximately 1.7 days after the main shock in the aftershock sequence of the Mw7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake of April 25, 2015. The relative quiescence lasted until the May 12, 2015, M7.3 Kodari earthquake that occurred at the eastern end of the primary aftershock zone. Space-time plots including the transformed time can indicate the local places where aftershock activity lowers (the seismicity shadow). Thus, the relative quiescence can be hypothesized to be related to stress shadowing caused by probable slow slips. In addition, the aftershock productivity of the M7.3 Kodari earthquake is approximately twice as large as that of the M7.8 main shock.

  13. Evidence for fluid-triggering underlying the year 2014 aftershock sequences in NW Bohemia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hainzl, S.; Fischer, T.; Cermakova, H.; Bachura, M.; Vlcek, J.

    2015-12-01

    The West Bohemia/Vogtland region, central Europe, is a place of localized repeating swarm activity continuously monitored during the last two decades, allowing a detailed study of the driving mechanisms. Previous earthquake episodes where characterized by swarm-type activity with gradual onsets and decays which were not related to mainshocks. However, the latest activity in the year 2014 occurred exactly in the same location as previous swarm activity but consisted of three classical aftershock sequences triggered by a M4.4 event and two ~M3.5 events. The apparent system change from swarm-type to mainshock-aftershock characteristics can have important implications for the understanding of swarm and aftershock generation as well as for seismic hazard assessment in this region. Thus we have analyzed in detail the spatiotemporal aftershock sequence based on a relocated earthquake catalog. Our analysis shows that the largest mainshock occurred in a step-over region of the fault plane with increased Coulomb stress due to previous activity. Its rupture plane connecting both segments is significantly rotated compared to most aftershocks, which occurred in-plane. The aftershock characteristics are classical in the way that (i) the aftershocks are clearly triggered by the mainshock, (ii) the maximum magnitude of the aftershocks is approximately 1.2 units less than the mainshock magnitude (Bath law), and (iii) the decay can be well fitted by the Omori-Utsu law. However, the absolute number of aftershocks and the fitted c and p values of the Omori-Utsu decay are significantly larger than for typical sequences. The fit of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model reveals a time-dependent background activity which exponentially decays with time after the mainshock. Pore pressure simulations with an exponentially decreasing flow rate of the fluid source show a good agreement with the observed spatial migration front of the aftershocks extending approximately with log

  14. Missing data in aftershock sequences: explaining the deviations from scaling laws.

    PubMed

    Lennartz, Sabine; Bunde, Armin; Turcotte, Donald L

    2008-10-01

    In this paper we extend the branching aftershock sequence model to study the role of missing data at short times and small amplitudes after a mainshock. We apply this model, which contains three parameters characterizing the missing data, to the magnitude and temporal statistics of four aftershock sequences in California. We find that the observed time-dependent deviations of the frequency-magnitude scaling from the Gutenberg-Richter power law dependency can be described quantitatively by the model. We also show that, for the same set of parameters, the model is able to explain quantitatively the observed magnitude-dependent deviations of the temporal decay of aftershocks from Omori's law. In addition, we show that the same sets of data can also reproduce quite well the various functional forms of the probability density functions of the return times between consecutive events with magnitudes above a prescribed threshold, as well as the violation of scaling at short and intermediate time scales.

  15. Statistical signatures of aftershock sequences generated by supershear mainshocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharya, P.; Shcherbakov, R.; Tiampo, K. F.; Mansinha, L.

    2010-12-01

    The rupture process during supershear earthquakes generates a seismic shock wave redistributing stress away from the fault resembling a sonic boom produced by a supersonic aircraft. This leads to a relative quiescence in aftershock activity along the supershear segment of the rupture. The occurrence of supershear ruptures is also generally associated with a region of local high pre-stress and an unusually smooth friction profile over the supershear segment, leading to a conspicuous absence of high frequency ground motions. We have considered the aftershock sequences of five well-known supershear earthquakes from around the world (1979 Imperial Valley, 1992 Landers, 1999 Izmit and Duzce and 2002 Denali earthquakes) to test whether the aftershock statistics around the supershear rupture are different from the statistics in the rest of the region due to the aforementioned stress conditions and redistributions. Specifically, we have looked at the frequency-magnitude distribution in order to study the variation of the b value for each of the sequences and observe statistically significant variations. In particular, we have determined that the b value is always higher in the zone surrounding a supershear segment than in the rest of the aftershock region. The Omori Law, however, does not show such clear trends. We also looked at the average difference in magnitude between the mainshock and the largest aftershock and found it is larger than that predicted by Bath's law. The results certainly point towards a relationship between aftershock statistics and the mainshock rupture process and might facilitate a physical process based understanding of the empirical laws of earthquake statistics.

  16. Foreshock and Aftershocks in Simple Earthquake Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazemian, J.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.; Dominguez, R.

    2015-02-01

    Many models of earthquake faults have been introduced that connect Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling to triggering processes. However, natural earthquake fault systems are composed of a variety of different geometries and materials and the associated heterogeneity in physical properties can cause a variety of spatial and temporal behaviors. This raises the question of how the triggering process and the structure interact to produce the observed phenomena. Here we present a simple earthquake fault model based on the Olami-Feder-Christensen and Rundle-Jackson-Brown cellular automata models with long-range interactions that incorporates a fixed percentage of stronger sites, or asperity cells, into the lattice. These asperity cells are significantly stronger than the surrounding lattice sites but eventually rupture when the applied stress reaches their higher threshold stress. The introduction of these spatial heterogeneities results in temporal clustering in the model that mimics that seen in natural fault systems along with GR scaling. In addition, we observe sequences of activity that start with a gradually accelerating number of larger events (foreshocks) prior to a main shock that is followed by a tail of decreasing activity (aftershocks). This work provides further evidence that the spatial and temporal patterns observed in natural seismicity are strongly influenced by the underlying physical properties and are not solely the result of a simple cascade mechanism.

  17. Aftershocks in a frictional earthquake model.

    PubMed

    Braun, O M; Tosatti, Erio

    2014-09-01

    Inspired by spring-block models, we elaborate a "minimal" physical model of earthquakes which reproduces two main empirical seismological laws, the Gutenberg-Richter law and the Omori aftershock law. Our point is to demonstrate that the simultaneous incorporation of aging of contacts in the sliding interface and of elasticity of the sliding plates constitutes the minimal ingredients to account for both laws within the same frictional model. PMID:25314453

  18. Aftershocks in a frictional earthquake model.

    PubMed

    Braun, O M; Tosatti, Erio

    2014-09-01

    Inspired by spring-block models, we elaborate a "minimal" physical model of earthquakes which reproduces two main empirical seismological laws, the Gutenberg-Richter law and the Omori aftershock law. Our point is to demonstrate that the simultaneous incorporation of aging of contacts in the sliding interface and of elasticity of the sliding plates constitutes the minimal ingredients to account for both laws within the same frictional model.

  19. Discrete characteristics of the aftershock sequence of the 2011 Van earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toker, Mustafa

    2014-10-01

    An intraplate earthquake of magnitude Mw 7.2 occurred on a NE-SW trending blind oblique thrust fault in accretionary orogen, the Van region of Eastern Anatolia on October 23, 2011. The aftershock seismicity in the Van earthquake was not continuous but, rather, highly discrete. This shed light on the chaotic nonuniformity of the event distribution and played key roles in determining the seismic coupling between the rupturing process and seismogeneity. I analyzed the discrete statistical mechanics of the 2011 Van mainshock-aftershock sequence with an estimation of the non-dimensional tuning parameters consisting of; temporal clusters (C) and the random (RN) distribution of aftershocks, range of size scales (ROSS), strength change (εD), temperature (T), P-value of temporal decay, material parameter R-value, seismic coupling χ, and Q-value of aftershock distribution. I also investigated the frequency-size (FS), temporal (T) statistics and the sequential characteristics of aftershock dynamics using discrete approach and examined the discrete evolutionary periods of the Van earthquake Gutenberg-Richter (GR) distribution. My study revealed that the FS and T statistical properties of aftershock sequence represent the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) distribution, clustered (C) in time and random (RN) Poisson distribution, respectively. The overall statistical behavior of the aftershock sequence shows that the Van earthquake originated in a discrete structural framework with high seismic coupling under highly variable faulting conditions. My analyses relate this larger dip-slip event to a discrete seismogenesis with two main components of complex fracturing and branching framework of the ruptured fault and dynamic strengthening and hardening behavior of the earthquake. The results indicate two dynamic cases. The first is associated with aperiodic nature of aftershock distribution, indicating a time-independent Poissonian event. The second is associated with variable slip model

  20. The 2004-2005 Les Saintes (French West Indies) seismic aftershock sequence observed with ocean bottom seismometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bazin, S.; Feuillet, N.; Duclos, C.; Crawford, W.; Nercessian, A.; Bengoubou-Valérius, M.; Beauducel, F.; Singh, S. C.

    2010-06-01

    On November 21, 2004 an Mw6.3 intraplate earthquake occurred at sea in the French Caribbean. The aftershock sequence continues to this day and is the most extensive sequence in a French territory in more than a century. We recorded aftershocks from day 25 to day 66 of this sequence, using a rapidly-deployed temporary array of ocean bottom seismometers (OBS). We invert P- and S-wave arrivals for a tomographic velocity model and improve aftershock locations. The velocity model shows anomalies related to tectonic and geologic structures beneath the Les Saintes graben. 3D relocated aftershocks outline faults whose scarps were identified as active in recent high-resolution marine data. The aftershocks distribution suggests that both the main November 21 event and its principal aftershock, on February 14, 2005, ruptured Roseau fault, which is the largest of the graben, extending from Dominica Island to the Les Saintes archipelago. Aftershocks cluster in the lower part of the Roseau fault plane (between 8 and 12.6 km depth) that did not rupture during the main event. Shallower aftershocks occur in the Roseau fault footwall, probably along smaller antithetic faults. We calculate a strong negative Vp anomaly, between 4 and 8 km depth, within the graben, along the Roseau fault plane. This low Vp anomaly is associated with a high Vp/Vs ratio and may reflect a strongly fracturated body filled with fluids. We infer from several types of observation that fault lubrication is the driving mechanism for this long-lasting aftershock sequence.

  1. No evidence of magnitude clustering in an aftershock sequence of nano- and picoseismicity.

    PubMed

    Davidsen, Jörn; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Dresen, Georg

    2012-01-20

    One of the hallmarks of our current understanding of seismicity as highlighted by the epidemic-type-aftershock sequence model is that the magnitudes of earthquakes are independent of one another and can be considered as randomly drawn from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. This assumption forms the basis of many approaches for forecasting seismicity rates and hazard assessment. Recently, it has been suggested that the assumption of independent magnitudes is not valid. It was subsequently argued that this conclusion was not supported by the original earthquake data from California. One of the main challenges is the lack of completeness of earthquake catalogs. Here, we study an aftershock sequence of nano- and picoseismicity as observed at the Mponeng mine, for which the issue of incompleteness is much less pronounced. We show that this sequence does not exhibit any significant evidence of magnitude correlations.

  2. Can current New Madrid seismicity be explained as a decaying aftershock sequence?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Page, M. T.; Hough, S. E.; Felzer, K. R.

    2012-12-01

    It has been suggested that continuing seismicity in the New Madrid, central U.S. region is primarily composed of the continuing long-lived aftershock sequence of the 1811-1812 sequence, and thus cannot be taken as an indication of present-day strain accrual in the region. We examine historical and instrumental seismicity in the New Madrid region to determine if such a model is feasible given 1) the observed protracted nature of past New Madrid sequences, with multiple mainshocks with apparently similar magnitudes; 2) the rate of historically documented early aftershocks from the 1811-1812 sequence; and 3) plausible mainshock magnitudes and aftershock-productivity parameters. We use ETAS modeling to search for sub-critical sets of direct Omori parameters that are consistent with all of these datasets, given a realistic consideration of their uncertainties, and current seismicity in the region. The results of this work will help to determine whether or not future sequences are likely to be clusters of events like those in the past, a key issue for earthquake response planning.

  3. An experimental approach to non - extensive statistical physics and Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) modeling. The case of triaxially deformed sandstones using acoustic emissions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavrianaki, K.; Vallianatos, F.; Sammonds, P. R.; Ross, G. J.

    2014-12-01

    Fracturing is the most prevalent deformation mechanism in rocks deformed in the laboratory under simulated upper crustal conditions. Fracturing produces acoustic emissions (AE) at the laboratory scale and earthquakes on a crustal scale. The AE technique provides a means to analyse microcracking activity inside the rock volume and since experiments can be performed under confining pressure to simulate depth of burial, AE can be used as a proxy for natural processes such as earthquakes. Experimental rock deformation provides us with several ways to investigate time-dependent brittle deformation. Two main types of experiments can be distinguished: (1) "constant strain rate" experiments in which stress varies as a result of deformation, and (2) "creep" experiments in which deformation and deformation rate vary over time as a result of an imposed constant stress. We conducted constant strain rate experiments on air-dried Darley Dale sandstone samples in a variety of confining pressures (30MPa, 50MPa, 80MPa) and in water saturated samples with 20 MPa initial pore fluid pressure. The results from these experiments used to determine the initial loading in the creep experiments. Non-extensive statistical physics approach was applied to the AE data in order to investigate the spatio-temporal pattern of cracks close to failure. A more detailed study was performed for the data from the creep experiments. When axial stress is plotted against time we obtain the trimodal creep curve. Calculation of Tsallis entropic index q is performed to each stage of the curve and the results are compared with the ones from the constant strain rate experiments. The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model (ETAS) is also applied to each stage of the creep curve and the ETAS parameters are calculated. We investigate whether these parameters are constant across all stages of the curve, or whether there are interesting patterns of variation. This research has been co-funded by the European Union

  4. Recent Experiences in Aftershock Hazard Modelling in New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerstenberger, M.; Rhoades, D. A.; McVerry, G.; Christophersen, A.; Bannister, S. C.; Fry, B.; Potter, S.

    2014-12-01

    The occurrence of several sequences of earthquakes in New Zealand in the last few years has meant that GNS Science has gained significant recent experience in aftershock hazard and forecasting. First was the Canterbury sequence of events which began in 2010 and included the destructive Christchurch earthquake of February, 2011. This sequence is occurring in what was a moderate-to-low hazard region of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM): the model on which the building design standards are based. With the expectation that the sequence would produce a 50-year hazard estimate in exceedance of the existing building standard, we developed a time-dependent model that combined short-term (STEP & ETAS) and longer-term (EEPAS) clustering with time-independent models. This forecast was combined with the NSHM to produce a forecast of the hazard for the next 50 years. This has been used to revise building design standards for the region and has contributed to planning of the rebuilding of Christchurch in multiple aspects. An important contribution to this model comes from the inclusion of EEPAS, which allows for clustering on the scale of decades. EEPAS is based on three empirical regressions that relate the magnitudes, times of occurrence, and locations of major earthquakes to regional precursory scale increases in the magnitude and rate of occurrence of minor earthquakes. A second important contribution comes from the long-term rate to which seismicity is expected to return in 50-years. With little seismicity in the region in historical times, a controlling factor in the rate is whether-or-not it is based on a declustered catalog. This epistemic uncertainty in the model was allowed for by using forecasts from both declustered and non-declustered catalogs. With two additional moderate sequences in the capital region of New Zealand in the last year, we have continued to refine our forecasting techniques, including the use of potential scenarios based on the aftershock

  5. Implications of mainshock-aftershocks interactions during the 2013 Ebreichsdorf sequence, Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tary, Jean-Baptiste; Apoloner, Maria-Theresia; Bokelmann, Götz

    2015-04-01

    The Vienna basin is a pull-apart basin located at the contact between the Alpine arc and the Eurasian plate, with the Eastern Alps to the West, the Western Carpathian to the East, the Bohemian massif to the North, and the Pannonian basin to the South. The southern border of this basin, called the Vienna Basin Fault System (VBFS), is accommodating part of the extrusion of the Pannonian basin (~1-2 mm/yr) due to the convergence between the Adriatic microplate and the Eurasian plate. The VBFS is a sinistral strike-slip fault and one of the most active fault in Austria. Along the VBFS, the seismicity is mainly concentrated in separate clusters with a spacing of approximately 20 km. In 2000 and 2013, two sequences constituted by two main shocks and 20-30 aftershocks occurred in one of these clusters located close to Ebreichsdorf, approximately 30 km south of Vienna. We focus here on the sequence of 2013 whose earthquakes were relocated using the double-difference method. The two main shocks, with local magnitudes of 4.2 and very similar focal mechanisms (N63, sinistral strike-slip), seem to be almost collocated. The aftershocks are located mainly to the northwest and at shallower depths compared with the main shocks. In order to better understand the relationships between the two main shocks and their aftershocks, we use two simple models of Coulomb failure stress to investigate possible coseismic static stress transfer between the main shocks and the aftershocks: the constant apparent friction model and the isotropic poroelastic model. The Coulomb failure stress change at the location of most aftershocks is positive but under 0.01 MPa. Aftershock triggering due to coseismic static stress is then unlikely. On the other hand, two other mechanisms could drive this sequence i.e., rapid non-linear pore pressure diffusion along the fault plane or aseismic slip. Given inter-event distances and times of ~0.5-1 km and hours to days, respectively, a high hydraulic diffusivity of

  6. Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment.

    PubMed

    Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian

    2009-11-01

    One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform. As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations. So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere. PMID:19890328

  7. Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment.

    PubMed

    Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian

    2009-11-01

    One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform. As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations. So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere.

  8. The Mw 8.1 2014 Iquique, Chile, seismic sequence: a tale of foreshocks and aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cesca, S.; Grigoli, F.; Heimann, S.; Dahm, T.; Kriegerowski, M.; Sobiesiak, M.; Tassara, C.; Olcay, M.

    2016-03-01

    The 2014 April 1, Mw 8.1 Iquique (Chile) earthquake struck in the Northern Chile seismic gap. With a rupture length of less than 200 km, it left unbroken large segments of the former gap. Early studies were able to model the main rupture features but results are ambiguous with respect to the role of aseismic slip and left open questions on the remaining hazard at the Northern Chile gap. A striking observation of the 2014 earthquake has been its extensive preparation phase, with more than 1300 events with magnitude above ML 3, occurring during the 15 months preceding the main shock. Increasing seismicity rates and observed peak magnitudes accompanied the last three weeks before the main shock. Thanks to the large data sets of regional recordings, we assess the precursor activity, compare foreshocks and aftershocks and model rupture preparation and rupture effects. To tackle inversion challenges for moderate events with an asymmetric network geometry, we use full waveforms techniques to locate events, map the seismicity rate and derive source parameters, obtaining moment tensors for more than 300 events (magnitudes Mw 4.0-8.1) in the period 2013 January 1-2014 April 30. This unique data set of fore- and aftershocks is investigated to distinguish rupture process models and models of strain and stress rotation during an earthquake. Results indicate that the spatial distributions of foreshocks delineated the shallower part of the rupture areas of the main shock and its largest aftershock, well matching the spatial extension of the aftershocks cloud. Most moment tensors correspond to almost pure double couple thrust mechanisms, consistent with the slab orientation. Whereas no significant differences are observed among thrust mechanisms in different areas, nor among thrust foreshocks and aftershocks, the early aftershock sequence is characterized by the presence of normal fault mechanisms, striking parallel to the trench but dipping westward. These events likely occurred

  9. Automatic Classification of Extensive Aftershock Sequences Using Empirical Matched Field Processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibbons, Steven J.; Harris, David B.; Kværna, Tormod; Dodge, Douglas A.

    2013-04-01

    The aftershock sequences that follow large earthquakes create considerable problems for data centers attempting to produce comprehensive event bulletins in near real-time. The greatly increased number of events which require processing can overwhelm analyst resources and reduce the capacity for analyzing events of monitoring interest. This exacerbates a potentially reduced detection capability at key stations, due the noise generated by the sequence, and a deterioration in the quality of the fully automatic preliminary event bulletins caused by the difficulty in associating the vast numbers of closely spaced arrivals over the network. Considerable success has been enjoyed by waveform correlation methods for the automatic identification of groups of events belonging to the same geographical source region, facilitating the more time-efficient analysis of event ensembles as opposed to individual events. There are, however, formidable challenges associated with the automation of correlation procedures. The signal generated by a very large earthquake seldom correlates well enough with the signals generated by far smaller aftershocks for a correlation detector to produce statistically significant triggers at the correct times. Correlation between events within clusters of aftershocks is significantly better, although the issues of when and how to initiate new pattern detectors are still being investigated. Empirical Matched Field Processing (EMFP) is a highly promising method for detecting event waveforms suitable as templates for correlation detectors. EMFP is a quasi-frequency-domain technique that calibrates the spatial structure of a wavefront crossing a seismic array in a collection of narrow frequency bands. The amplitude and phase weights that result are applied in a frequency-domain beamforming operation that compensates for scattering and refraction effects not properly modeled by plane-wave beams. It has been demonstrated to outperform waveform correlation as a

  10. A New Hybrid STEP/Coulomb model for Aftershock Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steacy, S.; Jimenez, A.; Gerstenberger, M.

    2014-12-01

    Aftershock forecasting models tend to fall into two classes - purely statistical approaches based on clustering, b-value, and the Omori-Utsu law; and Coulomb rate-state models which relate the forecast increase in rate to the magnitude of the Coulomb stress change. Recently, hybrid models combining physical and statistical forecasts have begun to be developed, for example by Bach and Hainzl (2012) and Steacy et al. (2013). The latter approach combined Coulomb stress patterns with the STEP (short-term earthquake probability) model by redistributing expected rate from areas with decreased stress to regions where the stress had increased. The chosen 'Coulomb Redistribution Parameter' (CRP) was 0.93, based on California earthquakes, which meant that 93% of the total rate was expected to occur where the stress had increased. The model was tested against the Canterbury sequence and the main result was that the new model performed at least as well as, and often better than, STEP when tested against retrospective data but that STEP was generally better in pseudo-prospective tests that involved data actually available within the first 10 days of each event of interest. The authors suggested that the major reason for this discrepancy was uncertainty in the slip models and, particularly, in the geometries of the faults involved in each complex major event. Here we develop a variant of the STEP/Coulomb model in which the CRP varies based on the percentage of aftershocks that occur in the positively stressed areas during the forecast learning period. We find that this variant significantly outperforms both STEP and the previous hybrid model in almost all cases, even when the input Coulomb model is quite poor. Our results suggest that this approach might be more useful than Coulomb rate-state when the underlying slip model is not well constrained due to the dependence of that method on the magnitude of the Coulomb stress change.

  11. Triggering of tsunamigenic aftershocks from large strike-slip earthquakes: Analysis of the November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Tom

    2005-10-01

    The November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence started with a Mw = 8.0 left-lateral main shock on 16 November and was followed by a series of aftershocks with primarily thrust mechanisms. The earthquake sequence was associated with a locally damaging tsunami on the islands of New Ireland and nearby New Britain, Bougainville, and Buka. Results from numerical tsunami-propagation models of the main shock and two of the largest thrust aftershocks (Mw > 7.0) indicate that the largest tsunami was caused by an aftershock located near the southeastern termination of the main shock, off the southern tip of New Ireland (Aftershock 1). Numerical modeling and tide gauge records at regional and far-field distances indicate that the main shock also generated tsunami waves. Large horizontal displacements associated with the main shock in regions of steep bathymetry accentuated tsunami generation for this event. Most of the damage on Bougainville and Buka Islands was caused by focusing and amplification of tsunami energy from a ridge wave between the source region and these islands. Modeling of changes in the Coulomb failure stress field caused by the main shock indicate that Aftershock 1 was likely triggered by static stress changes, provided the fault was on or synthetic to the New Britain interplate thrust as specified by the Harvard CMT mechanism. For other possible focal mechanisms of Aftershock 1 and the regional occurrence of thrust aftershocks in general, evidence for static stress change triggering is not as clear. Other triggering mechanisms such as changes in dynamic stress may also have been important. The 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence provides evidence that tsunamis caused by thrust aftershocks can be triggered by large strike-slip earthquakes. Similar tectonic regimes that include offshore accommodation structures near large strike-slip faults are found in southern California, the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, along the Queen Charlotte fault in British Columbia

  12. Aftershock seismicity of the 2010 Maule Mw=8.8 Chile, earthquake: Correlation between co-seismic slip models and aftershock distribution?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rietbrock, A.; Ryder, I.; Hayes, G.; Haberland, C.; Comte, D.; Roecker, S.

    2012-01-01

    The 27 February 2010 Maule, Chile (Mw=8.8) earthquake is one of the best instrumentally observed subduction zone megathrust events. Here we present locations, magnitudes and cumulative equivalent moment of the first -2 months of aftershocks, recorded on a temporary network deployed within 2 weeks of the occurrence of the mainshock. Using automatically-determined onset times and a back projection approach for event association, we are able to detect over 30,000 events in the time period analyzed. To further increase the location accuracy, we systematically searched for potential S-wave arrivals and events were located in a regional 2D velocity model. Additionally, we calculated regional moment tensors to gain insight into the deformation history of the aftershock sequence. We find that the aftershock seismicity is concentrated between 40 and 140 km distance from the trench over a depth range of 10 to 35 km. Focal mechanisms indicate a predominance of thrust faulting, with occasional normal faulting events. Increased activity is seen in the outer-rise region of the Nazca plate, predominantly in the northern part of the rupture area. Further down-dip, a second band of clustered seismicity, showing mainly thrust motion, is located at depths of 40–45 km. By comparing recent published mainshock source inversions with our aftershock distribution, we discriminate slip models based on the assumption that aftershocks occur in areas of rapid transition between high and low slip, surrounding high-slip regions of the mainshock.

  13. Aftershock triggering by postseismic stresses: A study based on Coulomb rate-and-state models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cattania, Camilla; Hainzl, Sebastian; Wang, Lifeng; Enescu, Bogdan; Roth, Frank

    2015-04-01

    The spatiotemporal clustering of earthquakes is a feature of medium- and short-term seismicity, indicating that earthquakes interact. However, controversy exists about the physical mechanism behind aftershock triggering: static stress transfer and reloading by postseismic processes have been proposed as explanations. In this work, we use a Coulomb rate-and-state model to study the role of coseismic and postseismic stress changes on aftershocks and focus on two processes: creep on the main shock fault plane (afterslip) and secondary aftershock triggering by previous aftershocks. We model the seismic response to Coulomb stress changes using the Dieterich constitutive law and focus on two events: the Parkfield, Mw = 6.0, and the Tohoku, Mw = 9.0, earthquakes. We find that modeling secondary triggering systematically improves the maximum log likelihood fit of the sequences. The effect of afterslip is more subtle and difficult to assess for near-fault events, where model errors are largest. More robust conclusions can be drawn for off-fault aftershocks: following the Tohoku earthquake, afterslip promotes shallow crustal seismicity in the Fukushima region. Simple geometrical considerations indicate that afterslip-induced stress changes may have been significant on trench parallel crustal fault systems following several of the largest recorded subduction earthquakes. Moreover, the time dependence of afterslip strongly enhances its triggering potential: seismicity triggered by an instantaneous stress change decays more quickly than seismicity triggered by gradual loading, and as a result we find afterslip to be particularly important between few weeks and few months after the main shock.

  14. Modelling aftershock migration and afterslip of the San Juan Bautista, California, earthquake of October 3, 1972

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The San Juan Bautista earthquake of October 3, 1972 (ML = 4.8), located along the San Andreas fault in central California, initiated an aftershock sequence characterized by a subtle, but perceptible, tendency for aftershocks to spread to the northwest and southeast along the fault zone. The apparent dimension of the aftershock zone along strike increased from about 7-10 km within a few days of the earthquake, to about 20 km eight months later. In addition, the mainshock initiated a period of accelerated fault creep, which was observed at 2 creep meters situated astride the trace of the San Andreas fault within about 15 km of the epicenter of the mainshock. The creep rate gradually returned to the preearthquake rate after about 3 yrs. Both the spreading of the aftershocks and the rapid surface creep are interpreted as reflecting a period of rapid creep in the fault zone representing the readjustment of stress and displacement following the failure of a "stuck" patch or asperity during the San Juan Bautista earthquake. Numerical calculations suggest that the behavior of the fault zone is consistent with that of a material characterized by a viscosity of about 3.6??1014 P, although the real rheology is likely to be more complicated. In this model, the mainshock represents the failure of an asperity that slips only during earthquakes. Aftershocks represent the failure of second-order asperities which are dragged along by the creeping fault zone. ?? 1987.

  15. The Hellenic Seismological Network Of Crete (HSNC): Validation and results of the 2013 aftershock sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chatzopoulos, Georgios; Papadopoulos, Ilias; Vallianatos, Filippos

    2015-04-01

    The number and quality of seismological networks in Europe has increased in the past decades. Nevertheless, the need for localized networks monitoring areas of great seismic and scientific interest is constant. Hellenic Seismological Network of Crete (HSNC) covers this need for the vicinity of the South Aegean Sea and Crete Island. In the present work with the use of Z-map software (www.seismo.ethz.ch) the spatial variability of Magnitude of Completeness (Mc) is calculated from HSNC's manual analysis catalogue of events for the period 2011 until today, proving the good coverage of HSNC in the areas. Furthermore the 2013, South Aegean seismicity where two large shallow earthquakes occurred in the vicinity of Crete Island, is discussed. The first event takes place on 15th June 2013 in the front of the Hellenic Arc, south from central Crete, while the second one on 12th October, 2013 on the western part of Crete. The two main shocks and their aftershock sequences have been relocated with the use of hypoinverse earthquake location software and an appropriate crust model. The HSNC identified more than 500 and 300 aftershocks respectively followed after the main events. The detailed construction of aftershocks catalogue permits the applicability of modern theories based on complexity sciences as described recently in the frame of non extensive statistical physics. In addition site effects in the stations locations are presented using event and noise recordings. This work was implemented through the project IMPACT-ARC in the framework of action "ARCHIMEDES III-Support of Research Teams at TEI of Crete" (MIS380353) of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" and is co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund) and Greek national funds References A. Tzanis and F. Vallianatos, "Distributed power-law seismicity changes and crustal deformation in the EW Hellenic Arc", Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences, 3, 179-195, 2003 F. Vallianatos, G

  16. Three Ingredients for Improved Global Aftershock Forecasts: Tectonic Region, Time-Dependent Catalog Incompleteness, and Inter-Sequence Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Page, M. T.; Hardebeck, J.; Felzer, K. R.; Michael, A. J.; van der Elst, N.

    2015-12-01

    Following a large earthquake, seismic hazard can be orders of magnitude higher than the long-term average as a result of aftershock triggering. Due to this heightened hazard, there is a demand from emergency managers and the public for rapid, authoritative, and reliable aftershock forecasts. In the past, USGS aftershock forecasts following large, global earthquakes have been released on an ad-hoc basis with inconsistent methods, and in some cases, aftershock parameters adapted from California. To remedy this, we are currently developing an automated aftershock product that will generate more accurate forecasts based on the Reasenberg and Jones (Science, 1989) method. To better capture spatial variations in aftershock productivity and decay, we estimate regional aftershock parameters for sequences within the Garcia et al. (BSSA, 2012) tectonic regions. We find that regional variations for mean aftershock productivity exceed a factor of 10. The Reasenberg and Jones method combines modified-Omori aftershock decay, Utsu productivity scaling, and the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We additionally account for a time-dependent magnitude of completeness following large events in the catalog. We generalize the Helmstetter et al. (2005) equation for short-term aftershock incompleteness and solve for incompleteness levels in the global NEIC catalog following large mainshocks. In addition to estimating average sequence parameters within regions, we quantify the inter-sequence parameter variability. This allows for a more complete quantification of the forecast uncertainties and Bayesian updating of the forecast as sequence-specific information becomes available.

  17. Properties of foreshocks and aftershocks of the nonconservative self-organized critical Olami-Feder-Christensen model.

    PubMed

    Helmstetter, Agnès; Hergarten, Stefan; Sornette, Didier

    2004-10-01

    Following Phys. Rev. Lett. 88, 238501 (2002)] who discovered aftershocks and foreshocks in the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) discrete block-spring earthquake model, we investigate to what degree the simple toppling mechanism of this model is sufficient to account for the clustering of real seismicity in time and space. We find that synthetic catalogs generated by the OFC model share many properties of real seismicity at a qualitative level: Omori's law (aftershocks) and inverse Omori's law (foreshocks), increase of the number of aftershocks and of the aftershock zone size with the mainshock magnitude. There are, however, significant quantitative differences. The number of aftershocks per mainshock in the OFC model is smaller than in real seismicity, especially for large mainshocks. We find that foreshocks in the OFC catalogs can be in large part described by a simple model of triggered seismicity, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. But the properties of foreshocks in the OFC model depend on the mainshock magnitude, in qualitative agreement with the critical earthquake model and in disagreement with real seismicity and with the ETAS model.

  18. Scaling Analysis of Time Distribution between Successive Earthquakes in Aftershock Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marekova, Elisaveta

    2016-08-01

    The earthquake inter-event time distribution is studied, using catalogs for different recent aftershock sequences. For aftershock sequences following the Modified Omori's Formula (MOF) it seems clear that the inter-event distribution is a power law. The parameters of this law are defined and they prove to be higher than the calculated value (2 - 1/p). Based on the analysis of the catalogs, it is determined that the probability densities of the inter-event time distribution collapse into a single master curve when the data is rescaled with instantaneous intensity, R(t; Mth), defined by MOF. The curve is approximated by a gamma distribution. The collapse of the data provides a clear view of aftershock-occurrence self-similarity.

  19. Generalized Omori-Utsu law for aftershock sequences in southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidsen, J.; Gu, C.; Baiesi, M.

    2015-05-01

    We investigate the validity of a proposed generalized Omori-Utsu law for the aftershock sequences for the Landers, Hector Mine, Northridge and Superstition Hills earthquakes, the four largest events in the southern California catalogue we analyse. This law unifies three of the most prominent empirical laws of statistical seismology-the Gutenberg-Richter law, the Omori-Utsu law, and a generalized version of Båth's law-in a formula casting the parameters in the Omori-Utsu law as a function of the lower magnitude cutoff mc for the aftershocks considered. By applying a recently established general procedure for identifying aftershocks, we confirm that the generalized Omori-Utsu law provides a good approximation for the observed rates overall. In particular, we provide convincing evidence that the characteristic time c is not constant but a genuine function of mc, which cannot be attributed to short-term aftershock incompleteness. However, the estimation of the specific parameters is somewhat sensitive to the aftershock selection method used. This includes c(mc), which has important implications for inferring the underlying stress field.

  20. Spatial and temporal analysis of the Mw 7.7, 2007, Tocopilla aftershock sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eggert, Silke; Sobiesiak, Monika

    2010-05-01

    On 14 November 2007, 15:40:51 UTC a large Mw 7.7 earthquake occurred in the region of Tocopilla in Northern Chile. The epicenter is located at 22.30°S, 69.89°W, ~ 35 km south east of the city of Tocopilla and 160 km north of Antofagasta (earthquake location by GEOFON network). The earthquake took place in the southern part of the Northern Chile seismic gap which is supposed to be at the end of its seismic cycle. Currently, the gap is spanning the rupture area of the Mw=9 1877 Iquique event, a region which is now unbroken for almost 150 years. Therefore, the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake is the first large event that occurred inside the Northern Chile seismic gap since 1877. We present a study of the spatial and temporal distribution of the aftershock activity following the 2007 Tocopilla event using the frequency-magnitude distribution and other parameters. Studying this aftershock sequence will provide closer insight into the fault dimension of this subduction zone earthquake and the tectonic setting of the region. The distribution of aftershocks into depth shows that the majority of the hypocenters are located along the subduction interface, reaching down to ~ 50 km depth. In the western part, the aftershock sequence splits into two branches, one heading towards the trench, the other bending into the crust in front of the Mejillones Peninsula. In the epicentral horizontal, we observe a concentration of aftershocks around the northern part of the Mejillones Peninsula and along the coast up to the Río Loa. This leads to the conclusion that the shallow part in the north west did probably not break during the event. The spatial density of aftershocks shows two offshore patches north-east of the peninsula. Analyzing the spatio-temporal distribution of our aftershock data set, we can see that the fault rupture propagated towards the south west with a fault plane of about 150 km length. These observations are consistent with first results by other studies. Our

  1. The Pegasus Bay aftershock sequence of the Mw 7.1 Darfield (Canterbury), New Zealand earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ristau, John; Holden, Caroline; Kaiser, Anna; Williams, Charles; Bannister, Stephen; Fry, Bill

    2013-10-01

    The Pegasus Bay aftershock sequence is the most recent aftershock sequence of the 2010 September 3 UTC moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 Darfield earthquake in the Canterbury region of New Zealand. The Pegasus Bay aftershock sequence began on 2011 December 23 UTC with three events of Mw 5.4-5.9 located in the offshore region of Pegasus Bay, east of Christchurch city. We present a summary of key aspects of the sequence derived using various geophysical methods. Relocations carried out using double-difference tomography show a well-defined NNE-SSW to NE-SW series of aftershocks with most of the activity occurring at depths >5 km and an average depth of ˜10 km. Regional moment tensor solutions calculated for the Pegasus Bay sequence indicate that the vast majority (45 of 53 events) are reverse-faulting events with an average P-axis azimuth of 125°. Strong-motion data inversion favours a SE-dipping fault plane for the largest event (Mw 5.9) with a slip patch of 18 km × 15 km and a maximum slip of 0.8 m at 3.5 km depth. Peak ground accelerations ranging up to 0.98 g on the vertical component were recorded during the sequence, and the largest event produced horizontal accelerations of 0.2-0.4 g in the Christchurch central business district. Apparent stress estimates for the two largest events are 1.1 MPa (Mw 5.9) and 0.2 MPa (Mw 5.8), which are compatible with global averages, although lower than other large events in the Canterbury aftershock sequence. Coulomb stress analysis indicates that previous large earthquakes in the Canterbury sequence generate Coulomb stress increases for the two events only at relatively shallow depths (3-5 km). At greater depths, Coulomb stress decreases are predicted at the locations of the two events. The trend of the aftershocks is similar to mapped reverse faults north of Christchurch, and the high number of reverse-faulting mechanisms suggests that similar reverse-faulting structures are present in the offshore region east of Christchurch.

  2. On the relationship between lower magnitude thresholds and bias in epidemic-type aftershock sequence parameter estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoenberg, Frederic Paik; Chu, Annie; Veen, Alejandro

    2010-04-01

    Modern earthquake catalogs are often described using spatial-temporal point process models such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). Earthquake catalogs often have issues of incompleteness and other inaccuracies for earthquakes of magnitude below a certain threshold, and such earthquakes are typically removed prior to fitting a point process model. This paper investigates the bias in the parameters in ETAS models introduced by the removal of the smallest events. It is shown that in the case of most of the ETAS parameters, the bias increases approximately exponentially as a function of the lower magnitude cutoff.

  3. DETERMINATION OF ELASTIC WAVE VELOCITY AND RELATIVE HYPOCENTER LOCATIONS USING REFRACTED WAVES. II. APPLICATION TO THE HAICHENG, CHINA, AFTERSHOCK SEQUENCE.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shedlock, Kaye M.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ma, Xiufang

    1985-01-01

    The authors located the aftershocks of the February 4, 1975 Haicheng, China, aftershock sequence using an arrival time difference (ATD) simultaneous inversion method for determining the near-source (in situ) velocity and the location of the aftershocks with respect to a master event. The aftershocks define a diffuse zone, 70 km multiplied by 25 km, trending west-northwest, perpendicular to the major structural trend of the region. The main shock and most of the large aftershocks have strike-slip fault plane solutions. The preferred fault plane strikes west-northwest, and the inferred sense of motion is left-lateral. The entire Haicheng earthauake sequence appears to have been the response of an intensely faulted range boundary to a primarily east-west crustal compression and/or north-south extension.

  4. Multiple event location analysis of aftershock sequences in the Pannonian basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bekesi, Eszter; Sule, Balint; Bondar, Istvan

    2016-04-01

    Accurate seismic event location is crucial to understand tectonic processes such as crustal faults that are most commonly investigated by studying seismic activity. Location errors can be significantly reduced using multiple event location methods. We applied the double difference method to relocate the earthquake occurred near Oroszlány and its 200 aftershocks to identify the geometry of the related fault. We used the extended ISC location algorithm, iLoc to determine the absolute single event locations for the Oroszlány aftershock sequence and applied double difference algorithm on the new hypocenters. To improve location precision, we added differential times from waveform cross-correlation to the multiple event location process to increase the accuracy of arrival time readings. We also tested the effect of various local 1-D velocity models on the results. We compared hypoDD results of bulletin and iLoc hypocenters to investigate the effect of initial hypocenter parameters on the relocation process. We show that hypoDD collapses the initial, rather diffuse locations into a smaller cluster and the vertical cross-sections show sharp images of seismicity. Unsurprisingly, the combined use of catalog and cross-correlation data sets provides the more accurate locations. Some of the relocated events in the cluster are ground truth quality with a location accuracy of 5 km or better. Having achieved accurate locations for the event cluster we are able to resolve the fault plane ambiguity in the moment tensor solutions and determine the accurate strike of the fault.

  5. Diffusion of epicenters of earthquake aftershocks, Omori's law, and generalized continuous-time random walk models.

    PubMed

    Helmstetter, A; Sornette, D

    2002-12-01

    The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is a simple stochastic process modeling seismicity, based on the two best-established empirical laws, the Omori law (power-law decay approximately 1/t(1+theta) of seismicity after an earthquake) and Gutenberg-Richter law (power-law distribution of earthquake energies). In order to describe also the space distribution of seismicity, we use in addition a power-law distribution approximately 1/r(1+mu) of distances between triggered and triggering earthquakes. The ETAS model has been studied for the last two decades to model real seismicity catalogs and to obtain short-term probabilistic forecasts. Here, we present a mapping between the ETAS model and a class of CTRW (continuous time random walk) models, based on the identification of their corresponding master equations. This mapping allows us to use the wealth of results previously obtained on anomalous diffusion of CTRW. After translating into the relevant variable for the ETAS model, we provide a classification of the different regimes of diffusion of seismic activity triggered by a mainshock. Specifically, we derive the relation between the average distance between aftershocks and the mainshock as a function of the time from the mainshock and of the joint probability distribution of the times and locations of the aftershocks. The different regimes are fully characterized by the two exponents theta and mu. Our predictions are checked by careful numerical simulations. We stress the distinction between the "bare" Omori law describing the seismic rate activated directly by a mainshock and the "renormalized" Omori law taking into account all possible cascades from mainshocks to aftershocks of aftershock of aftershock, and so on. In particular, we predict that seismic diffusion or subdiffusion occurs and should be observable only when the observed Omori exponent is less than 1, because this signals the operation of the renormalization of the bare Omori law, also at the

  6. Three ingredients for Improved global aftershock forecasts: Tectonic region, time-dependent catalog incompleteness, and inter-sequence variability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Page, Morgan T.; Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen; Michael, Andrew J.

    2016-01-01

    Following a large earthquake, seismic hazard can be orders of magnitude higher than the long‐term average as a result of aftershock triggering. Because of this heightened hazard, emergency managers and the public demand rapid, authoritative, and reliable aftershock forecasts. In the past, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aftershock forecasts following large global earthquakes have been released on an ad hoc basis with inconsistent methods, and in some cases aftershock parameters adapted from California. To remedy this, the USGS is currently developing an automated aftershock product based on the Reasenberg and Jones (1989) method that will generate more accurate forecasts. To better capture spatial variations in aftershock productivity and decay, we estimate regional aftershock parameters for sequences within the García et al. (2012) tectonic regions. We find that regional variations for mean aftershock productivity reach almost a factor of 10. We also develop a method to account for the time‐dependent magnitude of completeness following large events in the catalog. In addition to estimating average sequence parameters within regions, we develop an inverse method to estimate the intersequence parameter variability. This allows for a more complete quantification of the forecast uncertainties and Bayesian updating of the forecast as sequence‐specific information becomes available.

  7. The aftershock sequence of the 2015 April 25 Gorkha-Nepal earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adhikari, L. B.; Gautam, U. P.; Koirala, B. P.; Bhattarai, M.; Kandel, T.; Gupta, R. M.; Timsina, C.; Maharjan, N.; Maharjan, K.; Dahal, T.; Hoste-Colomer, R.; Cano, Y.; Dandine, M.; Guilhem, A.; Merrer, S.; Roudil, P.; Bollinger, L.

    2015-12-01

    The M 7.8 2015 April 25 Gorkha earthquake devastated the mountainous southern rim of the High Himalayan range in central Nepal. The main shock was followed by 553 earthquakes of local magnitude greater than 4.0 within the first 45 days. In this study, we present and qualify the bulletin of the permanent National Seismological Centre network to determine the spatio-temporal distribution of the aftershocks. The Gorkha sequence defines a ˜140-km-long ESE trending structure, parallel to the mountain range, abutting on the presumed extension of the rupture plane of the 1934 M 8.4 earthquake. In addition, we observe a second seismicity belt located southward, under the Kathmandu basin and in the northern part of the Mahabarat range. Many aftershocks of the Gorkha earthquake sequence have been felt by the 3 millions inhabitants of the Kathmandu valley.

  8. Short-term forecasting of aftershock sequences, microseismicity and swarms inside the Corinth Gulf continental rift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segou, Margarita

    2014-05-01

    Corinth Gulf (Central Greece) is the fastest continental rift in the world with extension rates 11-15 mm/yr with diverse seismic deformation including earthquakes with M greater than 6.0, several periods of increased microseismic activity, usually lasting few months and possibly related with fluid diffusion, and swarm episodes lasting few days. In this study I perform a retrospective forecast experiment between 1995-2012, focusing on the comparison between physics-based and statistical models for short term time classes. Even though Corinth gulf has been studied extensively in the past there is still today a debate whether earthquake activity is related with the existence of either a shallow dipping structure or steeply dipping normal faults. In the light of the above statement, two CRS realization are based on resolving Coulomb stress changes on specified receiver faults, expressing the aforementioned structural models, whereas the third CRS model uses optimally-oriented for failure planes. The CRS implementation accounts for stress changes following all major ruptures with M greater than 4.5 within the testing phase. I also estimate fault constitutive parameters from modeling the response to major earthquakes at the vicinity of the gulf (Aσ=0.2, stressing rate app. 0.02 bar/yr). The generic ETAS parameters are taken as the maximum likelihood estimates derived from the stochastic declustering of the modern seismicity catalog (1995-2012) with minimum triggering magnitude M2.5. I test whether the generic ETAS can efficiently describe the aftershock spatio-temporal clustering but also the evolution of swarm episodes and microseismicity. For the reason above, I implement likelihood tests to evaluate the forecasts for their spatial consistency and for the total amount of predicted versus observed events with M greater than 3.0 in 10-day time windows during three distinct evaluation phases; the first evaluation phase focuses on the Aigio 1995 aftershock sequence (15

  9. The Mw 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake of August 2011 and aftershock sequence: constraints on earthquake source parameters and fault geometry

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McNamara, Daniel E.; Benz, H.M.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Bergman, Eric A.; Earle, Paul; Meltzer, Anne; Withers, Mitch; Chapman, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The Mw 5.8 earthquake of 23 August 2011 (17:51:04 UTC) (moment, M0 5.7×1017  N·m) occurred near Mineral, Virginia, within the central Virginia seismic zone and was felt by more people than any other earthquake in United States history. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received 148,638 felt reports from 31 states and 4 Canadian provinces. The USGS PAGER system estimates as many as 120,000 people were exposed to shaking intensity levels of IV and greater, with approximately 10,000 exposed to shaking as high as intensity VIII. Both regional and teleseismic moment tensor solutions characterize the earthquake as a northeast‐striking reverse fault that nucleated at a depth of approximately 7±2  km. The distribution of reported macroseismic intensities is roughly ten times the area of a similarly sized earthquake in the western United States (Horton and Williams, 2012). Near‐source and far‐field damage reports, which extend as far away as Washington, D.C., (135 km away) and Baltimore, Maryland, (200 km away) are consistent with an earthquake of this size and depth in the eastern United States (EUS). Within the first few days following the earthquake, several government and academic institutions installed 36 portable seismograph stations in the epicentral region, making this among the best‐recorded aftershock sequences in the EUS. Based on modeling of these data, we provide a detailed description of the source parameters of the mainshock and analysis of the subsequent aftershock sequence for defining the fault geometry, area of rupture, and observations of the aftershock sequence magnitude–frequency and temporal distribution. The observed slope of the magnitude–frequency curve or b‐value for the aftershock sequence is consistent with previous EUS studies (b=0.75), suggesting that most of the accumulated strain was released by the mainshock. The aftershocks define a rupture that extends between approximately 2–8 km in depth and 8–10 km along

  10. Operational Earthquake Forecasting of Aftershocks for New England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebel, J.; Fadugba, O. I.

    2015-12-01

    Although the forecasting of mainshocks is not possible, recent research demonstrates that probabilistic forecasts of expected aftershock activity following moderate and strong earthquakes is possible. Previous work has shown that aftershock sequences in intraplate regions behave similarly to those in California, and thus the operational aftershocks forecasting methods that are currently employed in California can be adopted for use in areas of the eastern U.S. such as New England. In our application, immediately after a felt earthquake in New England, a forecast of expected aftershock activity for the next 7 days will be generated based on a generic aftershock activity model. Approximately 24 hours after the mainshock, the parameters of the aftershock model will be updated using the observed aftershock activity observed to that point in time, and a new forecast of expected aftershock activity for the next 7 days will be issued. The forecast will estimate the average number of weak, felt aftershocks and the average expected number of aftershocks based on the aftershock statistics of past New England earthquakes. The forecast also will estimate the probability that an earthquake that is stronger than the mainshock will take place during the next 7 days. The aftershock forecast will specify the expected aftershocks locations as well as the areas over which aftershocks of different magnitudes could be felt. The system will use web pages, email and text messages to distribute the aftershock forecasts. For protracted aftershock sequences, new forecasts will be issued on a regular basis, such as weekly. Initially, the distribution system of the aftershock forecasts will be limited, but later it will be expanded as experience with and confidence in the system grows.

  11. Adaptive forecasting of aftershock activity after the main shock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2014-05-01

    Forecasting aftershock activity is useful to reduce seismic risks in the affected area after the main shock. The difficulties to forecast aftershocks are (i) a forecasting model should be tailored to each aftershock sequence because the statistical property varies greatly according to an individual aftershock sequence and (ii) the forecasting model has to be estimated from highly deficient data where a significant fraction of early small aftershocks are missing from seismic records. To overcome this difficulty, we have been developing a statistical model to deal with incompletely detected aftershocks, in which the detection rate of aftershocks is sequentially estimated in a state-space modeling approach. Our method enables us to robustly estimate the forecasting model of underlying aftershocks including not only observed aftershocks but also missing ones from the incomplete catalog. We show that the Omori-Utsu formula can be well estimated only from a few hours of the data, and then it can be revised by the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model to adaptively forecast an aftershock sequence with the individual cascading feature as the data size increases in real-time. We demonstrate that how these estimated models can effectively forecast the aftershock activity. We also discuss how these models can be implemented in an operational system for earthquake forecasting. References: T. Omi, Y. Ogata, Y. Hirata, and K. Aihiara, "Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock", Scientific Reports, 3, 2218 (2013). T. Omi, Y. Ogata, Y. Hirata, and K. Aihiara, "Estimating the ETAS model from an early aftershock sequence", (In submission).

  12. Anomalous stress diffusion, Omori's law and Continuous Time Random Walk in the 2010 Efpalion aftershock sequence (Corinth rift, Greece)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michas, Georgios; Vallianatos, Filippos; Karakostas, Vassilios; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Sammonds, Peter

    2014-05-01

    Efpalion aftershock sequence occurred in January 2010, when an M=5.5 earthquake was followed four days later by another strong event (M=5.4) and numerous aftershocks (Karakostas et al., 2012). This activity interrupted a 15 years period of low to moderate earthquake occurrence in Corinth rift, where the last major event was the 1995 Aigion earthquake (M=6.2). Coulomb stress analysis performed in previous studies (Karakostas et al., 2012; Sokos et al., 2012; Ganas et al., 2013) indicated that the second major event and most of the aftershocks were triggered due to stress transfer. The aftershocks production rate decays as a power-law with time according to the modified Omori law (Utsu et al., 1995) with an exponent larger than one for the first four days, while after the occurrence of the second strong event the exponent turns to unity. We consider the earthquake sequence as a point process in time and space and study its spatiotemporal evolution considering a Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) model with a joint probability density function of inter-event times and jumps between the successive earthquakes (Metzler and Klafter, 2000). Jump length distribution exhibits finite variance, whereas inter-event times scale as a q-generalized gamma distribution (Michas et al., 2013) with a long power-law tail. These properties are indicative of a subdiffusive process in terms of CTRW. Additionally, the mean square displacement of aftershocks is constant with time after the occurrence of the first event, while it changes to a power-law with exponent close to 0.15 after the second major event, illustrating a slow diffusive process. During the first four days aftershocks cluster around the epicentral area of the second major event, while after that and taking as a reference the second event, the aftershock zone is migrating slowly with time to the west near the epicentral area of the first event. This process is much slower from what would be expected from normal diffusion, a

  13. Seismological aspects of the 27 June 2015 Gulf of Aqaba earthquake and its sequence of aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; Badreldin, Hazem

    2016-07-01

    On 27 June 2015, a moderate earthquake with magnitude Mb 5.2 struck the Gulf of Aqaba near Nuweiba City. This event was instrumentally recorded by the Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN) and many other international seismological centres. The event was felt in all the cities on the Gulf of Aqaba, as well as Suez City, Hurghada City, the greater Cairo Metropolitan Area, Israel, Jordan and the north-western part of Saudi Arabia. No casualties were reported, however. Approximately 95 aftershocks with magnitudes ranging from 0.7 to 4.2 were recorded by the ENSN following the mainshock. In the present study, the source characteristics of both the mainshock and the aftershocks were estimated using the near-source waveform data recorded by the very broadband stations of the ENSN, and these were validated by the P-wave polarity data from short period stations. Our analysis reveals that an estimated seismic moment of 0.762 × 1017 Nm was released, corresponding to a magnitude of Mw 5.2, a focal depth of 14 km, a fault radius of 0.72 km and a rupture area of approximately 1.65 km2. Monitoring the sequence of aftershocks reveals that they form a cluster around the mainshock and migrated downwards in focal depth towards the west. We compared the results we obtained with the published results from the international seismological centres. Our results are more realistic and accurate, in particular with respect to the epicenteral location, magnitude and fault plane solution which are in accordance with the hypocentre distribution of the aftershocks.

  14. Information theory approach to the Landers aftershock sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiménez, Abigail

    2015-07-01

    The study of seismicity is becoming increasingly important with recent disasters such as the Gorkha event in Nepal in 2015. Our models mostly depend on the information given by a seismic catalog, such as rates of events and magnitudes. It has also been shown that seismicity presents long-range correlations. Here, we think about how they should be introduced in our models. We divide the region into cells and represent their activity as a time series. We then calculate how much information one cell has about the others in a future time. We find that the higher information content is in each cell with itself. By representing the region as a complex network, we can see that the information between distant cells passes thorough hubs that correspond to the main events. So we conclude that long-range interactions should be introduced as the interaction with the mainshocks, not with other cells except, perhaps, in the nearest neighbourhood.

  15. An Autonomous System for Grouping Events in a Developing Aftershock Sequence

    SciTech Connect

    Harris, D. B.; Dodge, D. A.

    2011-03-22

    We describe a prototype detection framework that automatically clusters events in real time from a rapidly unfolding aftershock sequence. We use the fact that many aftershocks are repetitive, producing similar waveforms. By clustering events based on correlation measures of waveform similarity, the number of independent event instances that must be examined in detail by analysts may be reduced. Our system processes array data and acquires waveform templates with a short-term average (STA)/long-term average (LTA) detector operating on a beam directed at the P phases of the aftershock sequence. The templates are used to create correlation-type (subspace) detectors that sweep the subsequent data stream for occurrences of the same waveform pattern. Events are clustered by association with a particular detector. Hundreds of subspace detectors can run in this framework a hundred times faster than in real time. Nonetheless, to check the growth in the number of detectors, the framework pauses periodically and reclusters detections to reduce the number of event groups. These groups define new subspace detectors that replace the older generation of detectors. Because low-magnitude occurrences of a particular signal template may be missed by the STA/LTA detector, we advocate restarting the framework from the beginning of the sequence periodically to reprocess the entire data stream with the existing detectors. We tested the framework on 10 days of data from the Nevada Seismic Array (NVAR) covering the 2003 San Simeon earthquake. One hundred eighty-four automatically generated detectors produced 676 detections resulting in a potential reduction in analyst workload of up to 73%.

  16. Implications of spatial and temporal development of the aftershock sequence for the Mw 8.3 June 9, 1994 Deep Bolivian Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myers, Stephen C.; Wallace, Terry C.; Beck, Susan L.; Silver, Paul G.; Zandt, George; Vandecar, John; Minaya, Estela

    On June 9, 1994 the Mw 8.3 Bolivia earthquake (636 km depth) occurred in a region which had not experienced significant, deep seismicity for at least 30 years. The mainshock and aftershocks were recorded in Bolivia on the BANJO and SEDA broadband seismic arrays and on the San Calixto Network. We used the joint hypocenter determination method to determine the relative location of the aftershocks. We have identified no foreshocks and 89 aftershocks (m > 2.2) for the 20-day period following the mainshock. The frequency of aftershock occurrence decreased rapidly, with only one or two aftershocks per day occuring after day two. The temporal decay of aftershock activity is similar to shallow aftershock sequences, but the number of aftershocks is two orders of magnitude less. Additionally, a mb ∼6, apparently triggered earthquake occurred just 10 minutes after the mainshock about 330 km east-southeast of the mainshock at a depth of 671 km. The aftershock sequence occurred north and east of the mainshock and extends to a depth of 665 km. The aftershocks define a slab striking N68°W and dipping 45°NE. The strike, dip, and location of the aftershock zone are consistent with this seismicity being confined within the downward extension of the subducted Nazca plate. The location and orientation of the aftershock sequence indicate that the subducted Nazca plate bends between the NNW striking zone of deep seismicity in western Brazil and the N-S striking zone of seismicity in central Bolivia. A tear in the deep slab is not necessitated by the data. A subset of the aftershock hypocenters cluster along a subhorizontal plane near the depth of the mainshock, favoring a horizontal fault plane. The horizontal dimensions of the mainshock [Beck et al., this issue; Silver et al., 1995] and slab defined by the aftershocks are approximately equal, indicating that the mainshock ruptured through the slab.

  17. The 2007 Tocopilla earthquake and its aftershock sequence - A subduction zone earthquake at the edge of the northern Chile seimic gap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eggert, S.; Sobiesiak, M.; Shirzaei, M.

    2010-12-01

    On 14 November 2007 a large Mw 7.7 earthquake occurred in the region of Tocopilla in Northern Chile. The earthquake took place in the southern end of the Northern Chile seismic gap which is supposed to be at the end of its seismic cycle. Studying the event and its aftershock sequence will provide closer insight into the behavior of a subduction zone earthquake at the edge of a subduction zone segment. We present a comprehensive study of the rupture area combining seismic and geodetic data. The aftershock sequence following the earthquake was very well recorded by a local seismic network of 34 short period and broad band stations. The spatial distribution of the aftershock sequence shows a concentration of aftershocks around the north-western part of the Mejillones Peninsula and along the coast up to the Río Loa. The distribution into depth shows that the majority of the hypocenters are located along the subduction interface, reaching down to ~ 50 km depth. In the western part, the aftershock sequence splits into two branches, one heading towards the trench, the other bending into the crust in front of the Mejillones Peninsula. These seismic observations lead to the conclusion that the fault rupture propagated towards the south-west with a fault plane of about 150 km length leaving the shallow part in the north west probably unbroken. To better understand the behavior of the aftershock distribution we model the Coulomb stress transfer along the fault plane. The results show that stresses are increased in the southern part of the rupture area where we find a high concentration of aftershocks. This is consistent with the calculated energy release that shows two main patches along the plate interface rupturing from north to south. The 2007 Tocopilla earthquake is the first large event that occurred inside the Northern Chile seismic gap since the 1877 Iquique event. The rupture process stopped underneath the Mejillones Peninsula, a proposed segment boundary along the

  18. Signature of Fault Healing in an Aftershock Sequence? The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Shengfeng; Wu, Zhongliang; Jiang, Changsheng

    2016-01-01

    We analyzed the aftershock sequence of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake from May 12, 2008 to May 12, 2013 using the earthquake catalog of the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC). In the analysis performed, we took under consideration the temporary variation in the completeness of the earthquake catalog just after the Wenchuan mainshock. The cutoff completeness magnitude from May 12 to June 27, 2008 was above 3.0 due to the impact of the earthquake sequence on the seismological observatory practice. It was observed that the b value has an increasing trend from June 27, 2008 to late April 2009, while since May 2009, the b value has remained stable. If these characteristics were associated with the possible signature of fault healing, the `apparent healing time' could be pinpointed by this measure as around 1 year. Due to two strong asperities present on the rupture of the Wenchuan mainshock, the aftershock zone can be divided into two segments, namely the north and the south segment. The b values of the two segments seem to show different trends of temporal variation. The main contribution of the increasing trend comes from the south segment, or the `initiation segment' of the main rupture.

  19. Exploring the limits of waveform correlation event detection as applied to three earthquake aftershock sequences.

    SciTech Connect

    Resor, Megan E.; Carr, Dorthe Bame; Young, Christopher John

    2010-05-01

    Swarms of earthquakes and/or aftershock sequences can dramatically increase the level of seismicity in a region for a period of time lasting from days to months, depending on the swarm or sequence. Such occurrences can provide a large amount of useful information to seismologists. For those who monitor seismic events for possible nuclear explosions, however, these swarms/sequences are a nuisance. In an explosion monitoring system, each event must be treated as a possible nuclear test until it can be proven, to a high degree of confidence, not to be. Seismic events recorded by the same station with highly correlated waveforms almost certainly have a similar location and source type, so clusters of events within a swarm can quickly be identified as earthquakes. We have developed a number of tools that can be used to exploit the high degree of waveform similarity expected to be associated with swarms/sequences. Dendro Tool measures correlations between known events. The Waveform Correlation Detector is intended to act as a detector, finding events in raw data which correlate with known events. The Self Scanner is used to find all correlated segments within a raw data steam and does not require an event library. All three techniques together provide an opportunity to study the similarities of events in an aftershock sequence in different ways. To comprehensively characterize the benefits and limits of waveform correlation techniques, we studied 3 aftershock sequences, using our 3 tools, at multiple stations. We explored the effects of station distance and event magnitudes on correlation results. Lastly, we show the reduction in detection threshold and analyst workload offered by waveform correlation techniques compared to STA/LTA based detection. We analyzed 4 days of data from each aftershock sequence using all three methods. Most known events clustered in a similar manner across the toolsets. Up to 25% of catalogued events were found to be a member of a cluster. In

  20. Variation of b and p values from aftershocks sequences along the Mexican subduction zone and their relation to plate characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ávila-Barrientos, L.; Zúñiga, F. R.; Rodríguez-Pérez, Q.; Guzmán-Speziale, M.

    2015-11-01

    Aftershock sequences along the Mexican subduction margin (between coordinates 110ºW and 91ºW) were analyzed by means of the p value from the Omori-Utsu relation and the b value from the Gutenberg-Richter relation. We focused on recent medium to large (Mw > 5.6) events considered susceptible of generating aftershock sequences suitable for analysis. The main goal was to try to find a possible correlation between aftershock parameters and plate characteristics, such as displacement rate, age and segmentation. The subduction regime of Mexico is one of the most active regions of the world with a high frequency of occurrence of medium to large events and plate characteristics change along the subduction margin. Previous studies have observed differences in seismic source characteristics at the subduction regime, which may indicate a difference in rheology and possible segmentation. The results of the analysis of the aftershock sequences indicate a slight tendency for p values to decrease from west to east with increasing of plate age although a statistical significance is undermined by the small number of aftershocks in the sequences, a particular feature distinctive of the region as compared to other world subduction regimes. The b values show an opposite, increasing trend towards the east even though the statistical significance is not enough to warrant the validation of such a trend. A linear regression between both parameters provides additional support for the inverse relation. Moreover, we calculated the seismic coupling coefficient, showing a direct relation with the p and b values. While we cannot undoubtedly confirm the hypothesis that aftershock generation depends on certain tectonic characteristics (age, thickness, temperature), our results do not reject it thus encouraging further study into this question.

  1. The variability of PSV response spectra across a dense array deployed during the Northridge aftershock sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, E.H.; Hough, S.E.

    1997-01-01

    This study addresses the variability of pseudo-velocity response spectra across an array deployed on stiff soil in the San Fernando Valley during the Northridge (Mw 6.7) aftershock sequence. The separation between stations ranged from 0.5 to 5 km, and the aftershock magnitudes ranged from 2.3 to 4.0. We find that 95-percent of observed response spectra are within a factor of 1.9 to 2.6 of the network average. Statistically significant relative amplification factors were found for some of the sites, but the variability of observed response spectra is not significantly reduced by correcting for these effects. This implies that microzonation efforts on less than 5-km distance scales are not warranted at these types of sites. We also found a distance dependence for the response-spectral variability between neighboring sites. 95-percent are within a factor of ???2.3 at 0.5 km, increasing to 95-percent within a factor of ???4.2 at 5 km. No frequency dependence in these values could be resolved. Additional work is needed to examine the influence of other factors such as earthquake magnitude.

  2. Long aftershock sequences in North China and Central US: implications for hazard assessment in mid-continents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Mian; Luo, Gang; Wang, Hui; Stein, Seth

    2014-02-01

    Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811-1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments.

  3. An Explosion Aftershock Model with Application to On-Site Inspection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ford, Sean R.; Labak, Peter

    2016-01-01

    An estimate of aftershock activity due to a theoretical underground nuclear explosion is produced using an aftershock rate model. The model is developed with data from the Nevada National Security Site, formerly known as the Nevada Test Site, and the Semipalatinsk Test Site, which we take to represent soft-rock and hard-rock testing environments, respectively. Estimates of expected magnitude and number of aftershocks are calculated using the models for different testing and inspection scenarios. These estimates can help inform the Seismic Aftershock Monitoring System (SAMS) deployment in a potential Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty On-Site Inspection (OSI), by giving the OSI team a probabilistic assessment of potential aftershocks in the Inspection Area (IA). The aftershock assessment, combined with an estimate of the background seismicity in the IA and an empirically derived map of threshold magnitude for the SAMS network, could aid the OSI team in reporting. We apply the hard-rock model to a M5 event and combine it with the very sensitive detection threshold for OSI sensors to show that tens of events per day are expected up to a month after an explosion measured several kilometers away.

  4. Inferring Aftershock Sequence Properties and Tectonic Structure Using Empirical Signal Detectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junek, William N.; Kværna, Tormod; Pirli, Myrto; Schweitzer, Johannes; Harris, David B.; Dodge, Douglas A.; Woods, Mark T.

    2015-02-01

    Seismotectonic studies of the 2008 Storfjorden aftershock sequence were limited to data acquired by the permanent, but sparse, regional seismic network in the Svalbard archipelago. Storfjorden's remote location and harsh polar environment inhibited deployment of temporary seismometers that would have improved observations of sequence events. The lack of good station coverage prevented the detection and computation of hypocenter locations of many low magnitude events (mb < 2.5) in the NORSAR analyst-reviewed bulletin. As a result, the fine structure of the sequence's space-time distribution was not captured. In this study, an autonomous event detection and clustering framework is employed to build a more complete catalog of Storfjorden events using data from the Spitsbergen (SPITS) array. The new catalog allows the spatiotemporal distribution of seismicity within the fjord to be studied in greater detail. Information regarding the location of active event clusters provides a means of inferring the tectonic structure within the fault zone. The distribution of active clusters and moment tensor solutions for the Storfjorden sequence suggests there are at least two different structures within the fjord: a NE-SW trending linear feature with oblique-normal to strike-slip faulting and E-W trending normal faults.

  5. Aftershock Characteristics as a Means of Discriminating Explosions from Earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Ford, S R; Walter, W R

    2009-05-20

    The behavior of aftershock sequences around the Nevada Test Site in the southern Great Basin is characterized as a potential discriminant between explosions and earthquakes. The aftershock model designed by Reasenberg and Jones (1989, 1994) allows for a probabilistic statement of earthquake-like aftershock behavior at any time after the mainshock. We use this model to define two types of aftershock discriminants. The first defines M{sub X}, or the minimum magnitude of an aftershock expected within a given duration after the mainshock with probability X. Of the 67 earthquakes with M > 4 in the study region, 63 of them produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 99} within the first seven days after a mainshock. This is contrasted with only six of 93 explosions with M > 4 that produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 99} for the same period. If the aftershock magnitude threshold is lowered and the M{sub 90} criteria is used, then no explosions produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 90} for durations that end more than 17 days after the mainshock. The other discriminant defines N{sub X}, or the minimum cumulative number of aftershocks expected for given time after the mainshock with probability X. Similar to the aftershock magnitude discriminant, five earthquakes do not produce more aftershocks than N{sub 99} within 7 days after the mainshock. However, within the same period all but one explosion produce less aftershocks then N{sub 99}. One explosion is added if the duration is shortened to two days after than mainshock. The cumulative number aftershock discriminant is more reliable, especially at short durations, but requires a low magnitude of completeness for the given earthquake catalog. These results at NTS are quite promising and should be evaluated at other nuclear test sites to understand the effects of differences in the geologic setting and nuclear testing practices on its performance.

  6. RETAS Stochastic Model to Study Aftershock Rate Decay of the Denali Fault M7.9 Earthquake, November 3, 2002

    SciTech Connect

    Gospodinov, D. K.; Marekova, E. G.; Marinov, A. T.

    2007-04-23

    A RETAS model is used to analyze aftershock rate decay after the Denaly Fault earthquake with a main shock magnitude MS=7.9. We verify different variants of the RETAS model ranging from the limit case Mth = Mmain (main shock) to the case when Mth=Mo (lower magnitude cut-off). We first test the model on simulated data following the MOF (modified Omori formula) model. The results for the Denali Fault sequence reveal the best fit model to be RETAS with a triggering threshold Mth =3.2.

  7. Modeling of Kashmir Aftershock Decay Based on Static Coulomb Stress Changes and Laboratory-Derived Rate-and-State Dependent Friction Law

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Javed, F.; Hainzl, S.; Aoudia, A.; Qaisar, M.

    2016-05-01

    We model the spatial and temporal evolution of October 8, 2005 Kashmir earthquake's aftershock activity using the rate-and-state dependent friction model incorporating uncertainties in computed coseismic stress perturbations. We estimated the best possible value for frictional resistance " Aσ n", background seismicity rate " r" and coefficient of stress variation "CV" using maximum log-likelihood method. For the whole Kashmir earthquake sequence, we measure a frictional resistance Aσ n ~ 0.0185 MPa, r ~ 20 M3.7+ events/year and CV = 0.94 ± 0.01. The spatial and temporal forecasted seismicity rate of modeled aftershocks fits well with the spatial and temporal distribution of observed aftershocks that occurred in the regions with positive static stress changes as well as in the apparent stress shadow region. To quantify the effect of secondary aftershock triggering, we have re-run the estimations for 100 stochastically declustered catalogs showing that the effect of aftershock-induced secondary stress changes is obviously minor compared to the overall uncertainties, and that the stress variability related to uncertain slip model inversions and receiver mechanisms remains the major factor to provide a reasonable data fit.

  8. Bayesian Predictive Distribution for the Magnitude of the Largest Aftershock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shcherbakov, R.

    2014-12-01

    Aftershock sequences, which follow large earthquakes, last hundreds of days and are characterized by well defined frequency-magnitude and spatio-temporal distributions. The largest aftershocks in a sequence constitute significant hazard and can inflict additional damage to infrastructure. Therefore, the estimation of the magnitude of possible largest aftershocks in a sequence is of high importance. In this work, we propose a statistical model based on Bayesian analysis and extreme value statistics to describe the distribution of magnitudes of the largest aftershocks in a sequence. We derive an analytical expression for a Bayesian predictive distribution function for the magnitude of the largest expected aftershock and compute the corresponding confidence intervals. We assume that the occurrence of aftershocks can be modeled, to a good approximation, by a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a temporal event rate given by the modified Omori law. We also assume that the frequency-magnitude statistics of aftershocks can be approximated by Gutenberg-Richter scaling. We apply our analysis to 19 prominent aftershock sequences, which occurred in the last 30 years, in order to compute the Bayesian predictive distributions and the corresponding confidence intervals. In the analysis, we use the information of the early aftershocks in the sequences (in the first 1, 10, and 30 days after the main shock) to estimate retrospectively the confidence intervals for the magnitude of the expected largest aftershocks. We demonstrate by analysing 19 past sequences that in many cases we are able to constrain the magnitudes of the largest aftershocks. For example, this includes the analysis of the Darfield (Christchurch) aftershock sequence. The proposed analysis can be used for the earthquake hazard assessment and forecasting associated with the occurrence of large aftershocks. The improvement in instrumental data associated with early aftershocks can greatly enhance the analysis and

  9. Mechanism diversity of the loma prieta aftershocks and the mechanics of mainshock-aftershock interaction.

    PubMed

    Beroza, G C; Zoback, M D

    1993-01-01

    The diverse aftershock sequence of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake is inconsistent with conventional models of mainshock-aftershock interaction because the aftershocks do not accommodate mainshock-induced stress changes. Instead, the sense of slip of the aftershocks is consistent with failure in response to a nearly uniaxial stress field in which the maximum principal stress acts almost normal to the mainshock fault plane. This orientation implies that (i) stress drop in the mainshock was nearly complete, (ii) mainshock-induced decreases of fault strength helped were important in controlling the occurrence of after-shocks, and (iii) mainshock rupture was limited to those sections of the fault with preexisting shear stress available to drive fault slip.

  10. Aftershocks Prediction In Italy: Estimation of Time-magnitude Distribution Model Parameters and Computation of Probabilities of Occurrence.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lolli, B.; Gasperini, P.

    We analyzed the available instrumental catalogs of Italian earthquakes from 1960 to 1996 to compute the parameters of the time-magnitude distribution model proposed by Reasenberg e Jones (1989, 1994) and currently used to make aftershock predictions in California. We found that empirical corrections ranging from 0.3 (before 1976) to 0.5 magnitude units (between 1976 and 1980) are necessary to make the dataset ho- mogeneous over the entire period. The estimated model parameters result quite stable with respect to mainshock magnitude and sequence detection algorithm, while their spatial variations suggest that regional estimates might predict the behavior of future sequences better than ones computed by the whole Italian dataset. In order to improve the goodness of fit for sequences including multiple mainshocks (like the one occurred in Central Italy from September 1997 to May 1998) we developed a quasi epidemic model (QETAS) consisting of the superposition of a small number of Omori's pro- cesses originated by strong aftershocks. We found that the inclusion in the QETAS model of the shocks with magnitude larger than mainshock magnitude minus one (that are usually located and sized in near real-time by the observatories) improves significantly the ability of the algorithm to predict the sequence behaviors.

  11. Forecasting magnitude, time, and location of aftershocks for aftershock hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, K.; Tsai, Y.; Huang, M.; Chang, W.

    2011-12-01

    In this study we investigate the spatial and temporal seismicity parameters of the aftershock sequence accompanying the 17:47 20 September 1999 (UTC) 7.45 Chi-Chi earthquake Taiwan. Dividing the epicentral zone into north of the epicenter, at the epicenter, and south of the epicenter, it is found that immediately after the earthquake the area close by the epicenter had a lower value than both the northern and southern sections. This pattern suggests that at the time of the Chi-Chi earthquake, the area close by the epicenter remained prone to large magnitude aftershocks and strong shaking. However, with time the value increases. An increasing value indicates a reduced likelihood of large magnitude aftershocks. The study also shows that the value is higher at the southern section of the epicentral zone, indicating a faster rate of decay in this section. The primary purpose of this paper is to design a predictive model for forecasting the magnitude, time, and location of aftershocks to large earthquakes. The developed model is presented and applied to the 17:47 20 September 1999 7.45 Chi-Chi earthquake Taiwan, and the 09:32 5 November 2009 (UTC) Nantou 6.19, and 00:18 4 March 2010 (UTC) Jiashian 6.49 earthquake sequences. In addition, peak ground acceleration trends for the Nantou and Jiashian aftershock sequences are predicted and compared to actual trends. The results of the estimated peak ground acceleration are remarkably similar to calculations from recorded magnitudes in both trend and level. To improve the predictive skill of the model for occurrence time, we use an empirical relation to forecast the time of aftershocks. The empirical relation improves time prediction over that of random processes. The results will be of interest to seismic mitigation specialists and rescue crews. We apply also the parameters and empirical relation from Chi-Chi aftershocks of Taiwan to forecast aftershocks with magnitude M > 6.0 of 05:46 11 March 2011 (UTC) Tohoku 9

  12. Distribution of the largest aftershocks in branching models of triggered seismicity: theory of the universal Båth law.

    PubMed

    Saichev, A; Sornette, D

    2005-05-01

    Using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching model of triggered seismicity, we apply the formalism of generating probability functions to calculate exactly the average difference between the magnitude of a mainshock and the magnitude of its largest aftershock over all generations. This average magnitude difference is found empirically to be independent of the mainshock magnitude and equal to 1.2, a universal behavior known as Båth's law. Our theory shows that Båth's law holds only sufficiently close to the critical regime of the ETAS branching process. Allowing for error bars +/- 0.1 for Båth's constant value around 1.2, our exact analytical treatment of Båth's law provides new constraints on the productivity exponent alpha and the branching ratio n: 0.9 approximately < alpha < or =1. We propose a method for measuring alpha based on the predicted renormalization of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of the magnitudes of the largest aftershock. We also introduce the "second Båth law for foreshocks:" the probability that a main earthquake turns out to be the foreshock does not depend on its magnitude rho.

  13. The 25 March 1993 Scotts Mills, Oregon, earthquake and aftershock sequence: Spatial distribution, focal mechanisms, and the mount angel fault

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, G.C.; Crosson, R.S.; Carver, D.L.; Yelin, T.S.

    1996-01-01

    The 25 March 1993 ML = 5.7 crustal earthquake near Scotts Mills, Oregon, was the largest earthquake to occur in the Pacific Northwest in over a decade. The mainshock was located at 45.033?? N, 122.586?? W and at a depth of about 15.1 km, based on arrival time data from the short-period Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network. Beginning about 12 h after the mainshock, investigators from the U.S. Geological Survey deployed 22 digital seismographs to record aftershocks. Using data from the temporary and permanent stations, we analyzed a subset of 50 after-shocks with quality locations. Hypocenters of these aftershocks lie on a northwesttrending steeply dipping plane (strike 290 ?? 10??, dipping 60 ?? 5?? to the north-northeast), in agreement with the preferred slip plane of the mainshock focal mechanism solution (strike 294??, dipping 58?? to the north-northeast). The planar structure defined by the aftershock locations may be a southeast continuation of the Mount Angel Fault, a reverse fault identified from both surface and subsurface evidence. The mapped southeast extent of the Mount Angel Fault is located less than 10 km west of the Scotts Mills epicentral region. In addition, the mainshock focal mechanism solution, with a combination of reverse motion and right-lateral strike slip, has a geometry and sense of motion consistent with the Mount Angel Fault. While aftershock focal mechanisms are varied, P axes are consistently oriented in a subhorizontal north-south direction. This earthquake sequence, together with the geological and geophysical evidence for the Mount Angel Fault, suggests a significant crustal earthquake hazard for this region of northwest Oregon.

  14. The Hellenic Seismological Network of Crete (HSNC): validation and results of the 2013 aftershock sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chatzopoulos, G.; Papadopoulos, I.; Vallianatos, F.

    2016-02-01

    The last century, the global urbanization has leaded the majority of population to move into big, metropolitan areas. Small areas on the Earth's surface are being built with tall buildings in areas close to seismogenic zones. Such an area of great importance is the Hellenic arc in Greece. Among the regions with high seismicity is Crete, located on the subduction zone of the Eastern Mediterranean plate underneath the Aegean plate. The Hellenic Seismological Network of Crete (HSNC) has been built to cover the need on continuous monitoring of the regional seismicity in the vicinity of the South Aegean Sea and Crete Island. In the present work, with the use of Z-map software the spatial variability of Magnitude of Completeness (Mc) is calculated from HSNC's manual analysis catalogue of events from the beginning of 2008 till the end of September 2015, supporting the good coverage of HSNC in the area surrounding Crete Island. Furthermore, we discuss the 2013 seismicity when two large earthquakes occurred in the vicinity of Crete Island. The two main shocks and their aftershock sequences have been relocated with the use of HYPOINVERSE earthquake location software. Finally, the quality of seismological stations is addressed using the standard PQLX software.

  15. Damped regional-scale stress inversions: Methodology and examples for southern California and the Coalinga aftershock sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, J.L.; Michael, A.J.

    2006-01-01

    We present a new focal mechanism stress inversion technique to produce regional-scale models of stress orientation containing the minimum complexity necessary to fit the data. Current practice is to divide a region into small subareas and to independently fit a stress tensor to the focal mechanisms of each subarea. This procedure may lead to apparent spatial variability that is actually an artifact of overfitting noisy data or nonuniquely fitting data that does not completely constrain the stress tensor. To remove these artifacts while retaining any stress variations that are strongly required by the data, we devise a damped inversion method to simultaneously invert for stress in all subareas while minimizing the difference in stress between adjacent subareas. This method is conceptually similar to other geophysical inverse techniques that incorporate damping, such as seismic tomography. In checkerboard tests, the damped inversion removes the stress rotation artifacts exhibited by an undamped inversion, while resolving sharper true stress rotations than a simple smoothed model or a moving-window inversion. We show an example of a spatially damped stress field for southern California. The methodology can also be used to study temporal stress changes, and an example for the Coalinga, California, aftershock sequence is shown. We recommend use of the damped inversion technique for any study examining spatial or temporal variations in the stress field.

  16. The M 7.7 Tocopilla earthquake and its aftershock sequence: deployment of a Task Force local network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobiesiak, M.; Eggert, S.; Woith, H.; Grosser, H.; Peyrat, S.; Vilotte, J.; Medina, E.; Ruch, J.; Walter, T.; Victor, P.; Barrientos, S.; Gonzalez, G.

    2008-05-01

    After the November 14, 2007 Tocopilla earthquake in northern Chile, a local network of 20 short period seismic stations, 5 strong motion instruments, 6 GPS stations and 3 extensometers has been installed in the fault plane area between Tocopilla and Antofagasta by the German Task Force for earthquakes (GFZ Potsdam). The hydrogeology group of the TF sampled 20 thermal water sources in the area of the El Tatio geyser field, located about 170 km E of the epicentre. In collaboration with the IPG Paris, 4 broad band stations were deployed at the northern end of the fault plane between Tocopilla and Maria Elena. Major targets of the investigations of the aftershock sequence are the segment boundary between the 1995 Antofagasta earthquake and the recent Tocopilla event, stress transfer between both successively ruptured subduction zone segments, structural properties of the fault plane, possible consequences for the northern adjacent Iquique segment, and the influence of earthquake seismic waves on the El Tatio hydrothermal field. In our presentation we would like to show first results on the spatial distribution of the aftershocks and discuss these in relation to studies we have made on the Antofagasta aftershock sequence.

  17. Aftershock Energy Distribution by Statistical Mechanics Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daminelli, R.; Marcellini, A.

    2015-12-01

    The aim of our work is to research the most probable distribution of the energy of aftershocks. We started by applying one of the fundamental principles of statistical mechanics that, in case of aftershock sequences, it could be expressed as: the greater the number of different ways in which the energy of aftershocks can be arranged among the energy cells in phase space the more probable the distribution. We assume that each cell in phase space has the same possibility to be occupied, and that more than one cell in the phase space can have the same energy. Seeing that seismic energy is proportional to products of different parameters, a number of different combinations of parameters can produce different energies (e.g., different combination of stress drop and fault area can release the same seismic energy). Let us assume that there are gi cells in the aftershock phase space characterised by the same energy released ɛi. Therefore we can assume that the Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics can be applied to aftershock sequences with the proviso that the judgment on the validity of this hypothesis is the agreement with the data. The aftershock energy distribution can therefore be written as follow: n(ɛ)=Ag(ɛ)exp(-βɛ)where n(ɛ) is the number of aftershocks with energy, ɛ, A and β are constants. Considering the above hypothesis, we can assume g(ɛ) is proportional to ɛ. We selected and analysed different aftershock sequences (data extracted from Earthquake Catalogs of SCEC, of INGV-CNT and other institutions) with a minimum magnitude retained ML=2 (in some cases ML=2.6) and a time window of 35 days. The results of our model are in agreement with the data, except in the very low energy band, where our model resulted in a moderate overestimation.

  18. Propagation of Coulomb stress uncertainties in physics-based aftershock models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cattania, Camilla; Hainzl, Sebastian; Wang, Lifeng; Roth, Frank; Enescu, Bogdan

    2014-10-01

    Stress transfer between earthquakes is recognized as a fundamental mechanism governing aftershock sequences. A common approach to relate stress changes to seismicity rate changes is the rate-and-state constitutive law developed by Dieterich: these elements are the foundation of Coulomb-rate-and-state (CRS) models. Despite the successes of Coulomb hypothesis and of the rate-and-state formulation, such models perform worse than statistical models in an operational forecasting context: one reason is that Coulomb stress is subject to large uncertainties and intrinsic spatial heterogeneity. In this study, we characterize the uncertainties in Coulomb stress inherited from different physical quantities and assess their effect on CRS models. We use a Monte Carlo method and focus on the following aspects: the existence of multiple receiver faults; the stress heterogeneity within grid cells, due to their finite size; and errors inherited from the coseismic slip model. We study two well-recorded sequences from different tectonic settings: the Mw = 6.0 Parkfield and the Mw= 9.0 Tohoku earthquakes. We find that the existence of multiple receiver faults is the most important source of intrinsic stress heterogeneity, and CRS models perform significantly better when this variability is taken into account. The choice of slip model also generates large uncertainties. We construct an ensemble model based on published slip models and find that it outperforms individual models. Our findings highlight the importance of identifying sources of errors and quantifying confidence boundaries in the forecasts; moreover, we demonstrate that consideration of stress heterogeneity and epistemic uncertainty has the potential to improve the performance of operational forecasting models.

  19. Application of Subspace Detection to the 6 November 2011 M5.6 Prague, Oklahoma Aftershock Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, N. D.; Benz, H.; Johnson, C. E.; Aster, R. C.; McNamara, D. E.

    2015-12-01

    Subspace detection is a powerful tool for the identification of small seismic events. Subspace detectors improve upon single-event matched filtering techniques by using multiple orthogonal waveform templates whose linear combinations characterize a range of observed signals from previously identified earthquakes. Subspace detectors running on multiple stations can significantly increasing the number of locatable events, lowering the catalog's magnitude of completeness and thus providing extraordinary detail on the kinematics of the aftershock process. The 6 November 2011 M5.6 earthquake near Prague, Oklahoma is the largest earthquake instrumentally recorded in Oklahoma history and the largest earthquake resultant from deep wastewater injection. A M4.8 foreshock on 5 November 2011 and the M5.6 mainshock triggered tens of thousands of detectable aftershocks along a 20 km splay of the Wilzetta Fault Zone known as the Meeker-Prague fault. In response to this unprecedented earthquake, 21 temporary seismic stations were deployed surrounding the seismic activity. We utilized a catalog of 767 previously located aftershocks to construct subspace detectors for the 21 temporary and 10 closest permanent seismic stations. Subspace detection identified more than 500,000 new arrival-time observations, which associated into more than 20,000 locatable earthquakes. The associated earthquakes were relocated using the Bayesloc multiple-event locator, resulting in ~7,000 earthquakes with hypocentral uncertainties of less than 500 m. The relocated seismicity provides unique insight into the spatio-temporal evolution of the aftershock sequence along the Wilzetta Fault Zone and its associated structures. We find that the crystalline basement and overlying sedimentary Arbuckle formation accommodate the majority of aftershocks. While we observe aftershocks along the entire 20 km length of the Meeker-Prague fault, the vast majority of earthquakes were confined to a 9 km wide by 9 km deep

  20. Spatial stress variations in the aftershock sequence following the 2008 M6 earthquake doublet in the South Iceland Seismic Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hensch, M.; Árnadóttir, Th.; Lund, B.; Brandsdóttir, B.

    2012-04-01

    The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) is an approximately 80 km wide E-W transform zone, bridging the offset between the Eastern Volcanic Zone and the Hengill triple junction to the west. The plate motion is accommodated in the brittle crust by faulting on many N-S trending right-lateral strike-slip faults of 2-5 km separation. Major sequences of large earthquakes (M>6) has occurred repeatedly in the SISZ since the settlement in Iceland more than thousand years ago. On 29th May 2008, two M6 earthquakes hit the western part of the SISZ on two adjacent N-S faults within a few seconds. The intense aftershock sequence was recorded by the permanent Icelandic SIL network and a promptly installed temporary network of 11 portable seismometers in the source region. The network located thousands of aftershocks during the following days, illuminating a 12-17 km long region along both major fault ruptures as well as several smaller parallel faults along a diffuse E-W trending region west of the mainshock area without any preceding main rupture. This episode is suggested to be the continuation of an earthquake sequence which started with two M6.5 and several M5-6 events in June 2000. The time delay between the 2000 and 2008 events could be due to an inflation episode in Hengill during 1993-1998, that potentially locked N-S strike slip faults in the western part of the SISZ. Around 300 focal solutions for aftershocks have been derived by analyzing P-wave polarities, showing predominantly strike-slip movements with occasional normal faulting components (unstable P-axis direction), which suggests an extensional stress regime as their driving force. A subsequent stress inversion of four different aftershock clusters reveals slight variations of the directions of the average σ3 axes. While for both southern clusters, including the E-W cluster, the σ3 axes are rather elongated perpendicular to the overall plate spreading axis, they are more northerly trending for shallower clusters

  1. Aftershocks of the june 20, 1978, Greece earthquake: A multimode faulting sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carver, D.; Bollinger, G.A.

    1981-01-01

    A 10-station portable seismograph network was deployed in northern Greece to study aftershocks of the magnitude (mb) 6.4 earthquake of June 20, 1978. The main shock occurred (in a graben) about 25 km northeast of the city of Thessaloniki and caused an east-west zone of surface rupturing 14 km long that splayed to 7 km wide at the west end. The hypocenters for 116 aftershocks in the magnitude range from 2.5 to 4.5 were determined. The epicenters for these events cover an area 30 km (east-west) by 18 km (north-south), and focal depths ranges from 4 to 12 km. Most of the aftershocks in the east half of the aftershock zone are north of the surface rupture and north of the graben. Those in the west half are located within the boundaries of the graben. Composite focalmechanism solutions for selected aftershocks indicate reactivation of geologically mapped normal faults in the area. Also, strike-slip and dip-slip faults that splay off the western end of the zone of surface ruptures may have been activated. The epicenters for four large (M ??? 4.8) foreshocks and the main shock were relocated using the method of joint epicenter determination. Collectively, those five epicenters form an arcuate pattern convex southward, that is north of and 5 km distant from the surface rupturing. The 5-km separation, along with a focal depth of 8 km (average aftershock depth) or 16 km (NEIS main-shock depth), implies that the fault plane dips northward 58?? or 73??, respectively. A preferred nodal-plane dip of 36?? was determined by B.C. Papazachos and his colleagues in 1979 from a focal-mechanism solution for the main shock. If this dip is valid for the causal fault and that fault projects to the zone of surface rupturing, a decrease of dip with depth is required. ?? 1981.

  2. Detailed velocity ratio mapping during the aftershock sequence as a tool to monitor the fluid activity within the fault plane

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachura, Martin; Fischer, Tomáš

    2016-11-01

    The rheological properties of Earth materials are expressed by their seismic velocities and VP /VS ratio, which is easily obtained by the Wadati method. Its double-difference version based on cross-correlated waveforms enables focusing on very local structures and allows tracking, monitoring and analysing the fluid activity along faults. We applied the method to three 2014 mainshock-aftershock sequences in the West Bohemia/Vogtland (Czech Republic) earthquake swarm area and found pronounced VP /VS variations in time and space for different clusters of events located on a steeply dipping fault zone at depths ranging from 7 to 11 km. Each cluster reflects the spatial distribution of earthquakes along the fault plane but also the temporal evolution of the activity. Low values of VP /VS ratio down to 1.59 ± 0.02 were identified in the deeper part of the fault zone whereas higher values up to 1.73 ± 0.01 were estimated for clusters located on a shallower segment of the fault. Temporally the low VP /VS values are associated with the early aftershocks, while the higher VP /VS ratios are related only to later aftershocks. We interpret this behaviour as a result of saturation of the focal zone by compressible fluids: in the beginning the mainshock and early aftershocks driven by over-pressured fluids increased the porosity due to opening the fluid pathways. This process was associated with a decrease of the velocity ratio. In later stages the pressure and porosity decreased and the velocity ratio recovered to levels of 1.73, typical for a Poissonian medium and Earth's crust.

  3. Cumulative Coulomb Stress Triggering as an Explanation for the Canterbury (New Zealand) Aftershock Sequence: Initial Conditions Are Everything?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bebbington, Mark; Harte, David; Williams, Charles

    2016-01-01

    Using 2 years of aftershock data and three fault-plane solutions for each of the initial M7.1 Darfield earthquake and the larger (M >6) aftershocks, we conduct a detailed examination of Coulomb stress transfer in the Canterbury 2010-2011 earthquake sequence. Moment tensor solutions exist for 283 of the events with M ≥ 3.6, while 713 other events of M ≥ 3.6 have only hypocentre and magnitude information available. We look at various methods for deciding between the two possible mechanisms for the 283 events with moment tensor solutions, including conformation to observed surface faulting, and maximum ΔCFF transfer from the Darfield main shock. For the remaining events, imputation methods for the mechanism including nearest-neighbour, kernel smoothing, and optimal plane methods are considered. Fault length, width, and depth are arrived at via a suite of scaling relations. A large (50-70 %) proportion of the faults considered were calculated to have initial loading in excess of the final stress drop. The majority of faults that accumulated positive ΔCFF during the sequence were `encouraged' by the main shock failure, but, on the other hand, of the faults that failed during the sequence, more than 50 % of faults appeared to have accumulated a negative ΔCFF from all preceding failures during the sequence. These results were qualitatively insensitive to any of the factors considered. We conclude that there is much unknown about how Coulomb stress triggering works in practice.

  4. The 2012 August 11 MW 6.5, 6.4 Ahar-Varzghan earthquakes, NW Iran: aftershock sequence analysis and evidence for activity migration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rezapour, Mehdi

    2016-02-01

    The Ahar-Varzghan doublet earthquakes with magnitudes MW 6.5 and 6.4 occurred on 2012 August 11 in northwest Iran and were followed by many aftershocks. In this paper, we analyse ˜5 months of aftershocks of these events. The Ahar-Varzghan earthquakes occurred along complex faults and provide a new constraint on the earthquake hazard in northwest Iran. The general pattern of relocated aftershocks defines a complex seismic zone covering an area of approximately 25 × 10 km2. The Ahar-Varzghan aftershock sequence shows a secondary activity which started on November 7, approximately 3 months after the main shocks, with a significant increase in activity, regarding both number of events and their magnitude. This stage was characterized by a seismic zone that propagated to the west of the main shocks. The catalogue of aftershocks for the doublet earthquake has a magnitude completeness of Mc 2.0. A below-average b-value for the Ahar-Varzghan sequence indicates a structural heterogeneity in the fault plane and the compressive stress state of the region. Relocated aftershocks occupy a broad zone clustering east-west with near-vertical dip which we interpret as the fault plane of the first of the doublet main shocks (MW 6.5). The dominant depth range of the aftershocks is from 3 to about 20 km, and the focal depths decrease toward the western part of the fault. The aftershock activity has its highest concentration in the eastern and middle parts of the active fault, and tapers off toward the western part of the active fault segment, indicating mainly a unilateral rupture toward west.

  5. A case study of two M~5 mainshocks in Anza, California: Is the footprint of an aftershock sequence larger than we think?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fritts, Karen R.; Kilb, Debi

    2009-01-01

    It has been traditionally held that aftershocks occur within one to two fault lengths of the mainshock. Here we demonstrate that this perception has been shaped by the sensitivity of seismic networks. The 31 October 2001 Mw 5.0 and 12 June 2005 Mw 5.2 Anza mainshocks in southern California occurred in the middle of the densely instrumented ANZA seismic network and thus were unusually well recorded. For the June 2005 event, aftershocks as small as M 0.0 could be observed stretching for at least 50 km along the San Jacinto fault even though the mainshock fault was only ∼4.5 km long. It was hypothesized that an observed aseismic slipping patch produced a spatially extended aftershock-triggering source, presumably slowing the decay of aftershock density with distance and leading to a broader aftershock zone. We find, however, the decay of aftershock density with distance for both Anza sequences to be similar to that observed elsewhere in California. This indicates there is no need for an additional triggering mechanism and suggests that given widespread dense instrumentation, aftershock sequences would routinely have footprints much larger than currently expected. Despite the large 2005 aftershock zone, we find that the probability that the 2005 Anza mainshock triggered the M 4.9 Yucaipa mainshock, which occurred 4.2 days later and 72 km away, to be only 14%±1%. This probability is a strong function of the time delay; had the earthquakes been separated by only an hour, the probability of triggering would have been 89%.

  6. Non extensive statistical physics properties of the 2003 (Mw6.2), Lefkada, Ionian island Greece, aftershock sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vallianatos, F.; Karakostas, V.; Papadimitriou, E.

    2012-04-01

    On 14 August 2003, Lefkada Island (Central Ionian) was affected by an Mw=6.2 earthquake. Due to a dense temporary seismic network that operating immediately after the main shock occurrence, hundreds of aftershocks were recorded and located with high precision whereas relocation of the main shock and early strong aftershocks became also feasible. Thus, the spatio-temporal distribution of aftershocks onto the main and the neighboring fault segments was investigated in detail enabling the recognition of four distinctive seismicity clusters separated by less active patches. The aftershock spatiotemporal properties studied here using the concept of Non-Extensive Statistical Physics (NESP). The cumulative distribution functions of the inter-event times and the inter-event distances are estimated for the data set in each seismicity cluster and the analysis results to a value of the statistical thermodynamic qT and qD parameters for each cluster, where qT varies from 1.15 to 1.47 and qD from 0.5 to 0.77 for the interevent times and distances distributions respectively. These values confirm the complexity and non-additivity of the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity and the usefulness of NESP in investigating such phenomena. The temporal structure is also discussed using the complementary to NESP approach of superstatistics, which is based on a superposition of ordinary local equilibrium statistical mechanics. The result indicates that the temporal evolution of the Lefkada aftershock sequence in clusters A, B and C governed by very low number of degrees of freedom while D is less organized seismicity structure with a much higher number of degrees of freedom. Acknowledgments. This work was supported in part by the THALES Program of the Ministry of Education of Greece and the European Union in the framework of the project entitled "Integrated understanding of Seismicity, using innovative Methodologies of Fracture mechanics along with Earthquake and non extensive

  7. Aftershocks can Significantly Alter Stress Change Patterns Produced by Their Mainshock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Felzer, K. R.; Becker, T. W.; Abercrombie, R. E.; Ekström, G.; Rice, J. R.

    2001-12-01

    Many studies over the last decade have used the static Coulomb stress change produced by a mainshock to predict the locations of triggered earthquakes. This method has shown some success, but often fails to predict the locations of 20% to 40% of the aftershocks of a given mainshock. We use statistical Monte Carlo modeling to show that this amount of failure is consistent with the perturbation to the stress field provided by the aftershocks themselves. Although most aftershocks are more than a magnitude unit smaller than their mainshocks, the ability of earthquakes of all magnitudes to produce large static stress changes at short range, and the pronounced clustering of aftershock hypocenters, implies that many aftershock hypocenters in a sequence may be primarily stressed by a previous aftershock rather than by the mainshock itself. The exact percentage stressed by previous aftershocks increases with the activity of the aftershock sequence, the magnitude of the mainshock, and the time since the mainshock. Our model predicts that two days after the average California M7 earthquake, for example, over 50% of new aftershocks are primarily in response to stress changes from previous aftershocks. This means that the majority of the new aftershocks are most likely to occur near previous aftershocks, and not necessarily within regions of Coulomb stress increase from the mainshock. The same happens three days after the average M6, and three weeks after the average M5 mainshock. Our statistical modeling uses Omori's Law for aftershock decay, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency relationship, Baath's Law, and the assumptions that earthquakes of all sizes are capable of generating aftershocks and that the timing of each aftershock is essentially determined by a single mainshock. We apply our model to the 1999 M7.1 Hector Mine earthquake, which may be classified as an aftershock of the 1992 M7.3 Landers earthquake. Our modeling shows that at the time of the Hector Mine

  8. Fault-Zone Trapped Waves from Aftershocks of the M7.2 Darfield and M6.3 Christchurch Earthquake Sequence for Document of Subsurface Damage Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y.; De Pascale, G. P.; Gravley, D.; Cherrington, J.; Alvarez, M. G.

    2011-12-01

    The M6.3 Christchurch earthquake struck the Canterbury region in NZ's South Island on 22 February 2011, following ~6 months after the Sept. 4, 2010 M7.1 Darfield earthquake in the same region. It has generated a significant series of aftershocks, many of which are considered big for a M6.3 earthquake. It is not know clearly whether the later M6.3 event is technically an aftershock because of its relationship to the ongoing activity since September last year, or it is a separate event, given its location on a separate fault system, a previously unknown blind fault line running 17 km south of Christchurch. In order to study the complicated subsurface structure of the damage zones caused by this sequence of earthquakes in NZ, under the support of NSF-RAPID Program, we deployed 12 PASSCAL seismographs in two ~300-m long seismic lines across the Greendale fault where the horizontal right-lateral slip of 4.5 m and vertical slip of 1.6 m were caused by the 2010 M7.2 Darfield earthquake and the aftershock zone of the M6.3 Christchurch earthquake, respectively, to record fault-zone trapped waves (FZTWs) generated by aftershocks, starting from May 5th, 2011. We have recorded the data for ~300 M>3 aftershocks with good locations and more than ~1000 small events not located yet but with good signal-to-noise ratio at these two arrays, including M5.3, M6, M5.4, M5.1 aftershocks with their clustered events at depths of 10-15 km. Preliminary examination of the waveform data shows FZTWs clearly at stations located within the 50-75-m wide rupture zone with high density of en-echelon cracks on the ground surface along the Greendale fault. 3-D finite-difference simulations of these FZTWs show a distinct low-velocity zone (LVZ) at seismogenic depth, indicating that the Greendale fault has undergone strong dynamic stresses and pervasive cracking during the 2010 M7.2 Darfield earthquake. We interpret this LVZ as being a remnant of damage zone in dynamic ruptures that accumulated damage

  9. Characterization of Fault Networks and Diffusion of Aftershock Epicenters From Earthquake Catalogs: Fuzzy C-means Clustering and a Modified ETAS Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moulik, P.; Tiampo, K. F.

    2009-05-01

    The information on three-dimensional geometry as well as the identification of active fault segments is critical to our assessment of seismic risks. Numerical modeling of the aftershock locations, times and magnitudes are also crucial to characterize a fault zone. In this study, a pattern recognition technique based on the Fuzzy C- means clustering algorithm (Bezdek, 1981) is proposed to allow each earthquake to be associated with different fault segments. The spatial covariance tensor for each cluster and the associated earthquakes are used to find optimal anisotropic clusters and designate them as faults, similar to the OADC method (Ouillon et al., 2008). The location, size and orientation of the reconstructed faults segments are characterized using a fuzzy covariance matrix (Gustafson and Kessel, 1978). The output consists of a set of distinct fault segments along with the associated earthquakes at different fuzzy membership grades (Zadeh, 1965). A resultant matrix consists of the fuzzy membership grade for different earthquakes and corresponding faults segments specifying their degree of association with values from zero to one. The spatial distribution of earthquakes of different magnitudes and membership grades for a fault segment is incorporated in an anisotropic spatial kernel which characterizes the aftershock density at a distance vector in the ETAS model (Kagan and Knopoff, 1987; Ogata, 1988). An optimal spatio-temporal distribution of aftershocks is obtained for each fault segment without considering a priori distributions such as Gaussian or power law (Helmstetter et al., 2006; Helmstetter and Sornette, 2002). The model is tested on the aftershock sequence from the Denali, 2002 earthquake in Alaska and the fault reconstruction results compared with the known faults in the area. Therefore, a new method to incorporate the anisotropic nature of aftershock diffusion along with the reconstruction of fault networks from seismicity catalogs is formulated in

  10. 2010 Chile Earthquake Aftershock Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barientos, Sergio

    2010-05-01

    1906? Since the number of M>7.0 aftershocks has been low, does the distribution of large-magnitude aftershocks differ from previous events of this size? What is the origin of the extensional-type aftershocks at shallow depths within the upper plate? The international seismological community (France, Germany, U.K., U.S.A.) in collaboration with the Chilean seismological community responded with a total of 140 portable seismic stations to deploy in order to record aftershocks. This combined with the Chilean permanent seismic network, in the area results in 180 stations now in operation recording continuous at 100 cps. The seismic equipment is a mix of accelerometers, short -period and broadband seismic sensors deployed along the entire length of the aftershock zone that will record the aftershock sequence for three to six months. The collected seismic data will be merged and archived to produce an international data set open to the entire seismological community immediately after archiving. Each international group will submit their data as soon as possible in standard (mini seed) format with accompanying meta data to the IRIS DMC where the data will be merged into a combined data set and available to individuals and other data centers. This will be by far the best-recorded aftershock sequence of a large megathrust earthquake. This outstanding international collaboration will provide an open data set for this important earthquake as well as provide a model for future aftershock deployments around the world.

  11. Applying Error Diagram for Evaluating Spatial Forecasting Model of Large Aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shebalin, Peter; Sergey, Baranov

    2016-04-01

    Difficulty of use in practice the forecasting result formulated in probability terms is well known in statistical seismology. Small values of probability of earthquake occurrence cannot be directly used for decision making to reduce losses due to seismic hazard. In this research we suggest a technique for applying Molchan's error diagram to evaluate a model of seismic hazard forecasting and make practical recommendation, applied specifically to the hazard after large earthquakes. We illustrate the suggested technique by example of evaluating retrospective forecast of an area where one can expect strong aftershock (M6+). The forecast model is based on data for 12 hours after the mainshock. We found an optimal variant among many tested by minimizing the rate of missed targets (strong aftershock) and the rate of alarm space as a loss function. Analyzing the error diagram, we suggest these three forecast strategies: "soft", "neutral", and 'hard", giving different size of the alarm area, where one may expect strong aftershocks. The suggested technique can be used for making decision at various conditions to reduce losses due to seismic hazard after a strong earthquake. This research was carried out at the expense of the Russian Science Foundation (Project Nu 16-17-00093).

  12. Focal Depth of the WenChuan Earthquake Aftershocks from modeling of Seismic Depth Phases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Y.; Zeng, X.; Chong, J.; Ni, S.; Chen, Y.

    2008-12-01

    After the 05/12/2008 great WenChuan earthquake in Sichuan Province of China, tens of thousands earthquakes occurred with hundreds of them stronger than M4. Those aftershocks provide valuable information about seismotectonics and rupture processes for the mainshock, particularly accurate spatial distribution of aftershocks is very informational for determining rupture fault planes. However focal depth can not be well resolved just with first arrivals recorded by relatively sparse network in Sichuan Province, therefore 3D seismicity distribution is difficult to obtain though horizontal location can be located with accuracy of 5km. Instead local/regional depth phases such as sPmP, sPn, sPL and teleseismic pP,sP are very sensitive to depth, and be readily modeled to determine depth with accuracy of 2km. With reference 1D velocity structure resolved from receiver functions and seismic refraction studies, local/regional depth phases such as sPmP, sPn and sPL are identified by comparing observed waveform with synthetic seismograms by generalized ray theory and reflectivity methods. For teleseismic depth phases well observed for M5.5 and stronger events, we developed an algorithm in inverting both depth and focal mechanism from P and SH waveforms. Also we employed the Cut and Paste (CAP) method developed by Zhao and Helmberger in modeling mechanism and depth with local waveforms, which constrains depth by fitting Pnl waveforms and the relative weight between surface wave and Pnl. After modeling all the depth phases for hundreds of events , we find that most of the M4 earthquakes occur between 2-18km depth, with aftershocks depth ranging 4-12km in the southern half of Longmenshan fault while aftershocks in the northern half featuring large depth range up to 18km. Therefore seismogenic zone in the northern segment is deeper as compared to the southern segment. All the aftershocks occur in upper crust, given that the Moho is deeper than 40km, or even 60km west of the

  13. Earthquake source parameters for the 2010 January Haiti main shock and aftershock sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nettles, Meredith; Hjörleifsdóttir, Vala

    2010-10-01

    Previous analyses of geological and geodetic data suggest that the obliquely compressive relative motion across the Caribbean-North America plate boundary in Hispaniola is accommodated through strain partitioning between near-vertical transcurrent faults on land and low-angle thrust faults offshore. In the Dominican Republic, earthquake focal-mechanism geometries generally support this interpretation. Little information has been available about patterns of seismic strain release in Haiti, however, due to the small numbers of moderate-to-large earthquakes occurring in western Hispaniola during the modern instrumental era. Here, we analyse the damaging MW = 7.0 earthquake that occurred near Port au Prince on 2010 January 12 and aftershocks occurring in the four months following this event, to obtain centroid-moment-tensor (CMT) solutions for 50 earthquakes with magnitudes as small as MW = 4.0. While the 2010 January main shock exhibited primarily strike-slip motion on a steeply dipping nodal plane (strike=250°, dip=71° and rake=22°), we find that nearly all of the aftershocks show reverse-faulting motion, typically on high-angle (30°-45°) nodal planes. Two small aftershocks (MW 4.5 and 4.6), located very close to the main shock epicentre, show strike-slip faulting with geometries similar to the main shock. One aftershock located off the south coast of Haiti shows low-angle thrust faulting. We also examine earthquakes occurring in this region from 1977-2009 successful analysis of four such events provides evidence for both strike-slip and reverse faulting. The pattern of seismic strain release in southern Haiti thus indicates that partitioning of plate motion between transcurrent and reverse structures extends far west within Hispaniola. While we see limited evidence for low-angle underthrusting offshore, most reverse motion appears to occur on high-angle fault structures adjacent to the Enriquillo fault. Our results highlight the need to incorporate seismogenic

  14. Fractal structure and predictability of distances between consecutive events: an analysis of three seismic aftershock sequences in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez, Maria-Dolors; Lana, Xavier; Monterrubio, Marisol; Serra, Carina

    2015-04-01

    Three series of distances between consecutive seismic events are analysed by means of mono- and multifractal techniques with the aim of quantifying the complexity of their physical mechanism and their predictability and predictive instability. These series are also simulated by means of fractional noise by taking into account their self-affine character, the dependence of their power spectra on frequency and the values of Hurst and Hausdorff exponents. The prediction of these series is also attempted by means of an autoregressive AR(p) process to estimate the p+1 distance depending on the previous p distances. The interevent distance series are derived from the aftershock sequences associated with Landers (Mw 7.3 June 28, 1992), Northridge (Mw 6.7 January 17, 1994) and Hector Mine (Mw 7.1 October 16, 1999) mainshocks. The seismic records are obtained from the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) catalogue. Aftershocks with Mw equalling to or exceeding 2.0 are considered in order to assure catalogue completeness.

  15. The 1997 Umbria-Marche, Italy, Earthquake Sequence: A first look at the main shocks and aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amato, A.; Azzara, R.; Chiarabba, C.; Cimini, G. B.; Cocco, M.; Di Bona, M.; Margheriti, L.; Mazza, S.; Mele, F.; Selvaggi, G.; Basili, A.; Boschi, E.; Courboulex, F.; Deschamps, A.; Gaffet, S.; Bittarelli, G.; Chiaraluce, L.; Piccinini, D.; Ripepe, M.

    A long sequence of earthquakes, six with magnitudes between 5 and 6, struck Central Italy starting on September 26, 1997, causing severe damages and loss of human lives. The seismogenic structure consists of a NW-SE elongated fault zone extending for about 40 km. The focal mechanisms of the largest shocks reveal normal faulting with NE-SW extension perpendicular to the trend of the Apennines, consistently with the Quaternary tectonic setting of the internal sector of the belt and with previous earthquakes in adjacent regions. Preliminary data on the main shocks and aftershocks show that extension in this region of the Apennines is accomplished by normal faults dipping at low angle (∼40°) to the southwest, and confined in the upper ∼8 km of the crust. These normal faults might have reactivated thrust planes of the Pliocene compressional tectonics. The aftershock distribution and the damage patterns also suggest that the three main shocks ruptured distinct 5 to 15 km-long fault segments, adjacent and slightly offset from one another.

  16. Full waveform modelling using the VERCE platform - application to aftershock seismicity in the Chile subduction zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garth, Thomas; Rietbrock, Andreas; Hicks, Steve; Fuenzalida Velasco, Amaya; Casarotti, Emanuele; Spinuso, Alessandro

    2015-04-01

    The VERCE platform is an online portal that allows full waveform simulations to be run for any region where a suitable velocity model exists. We use this facility to simulate the waveforms from aftershock earthquakes from the 2014 Pisagua earthquake, and 2010 Maule earthquake that occurred at the subduction zone mega thrust in Northern and Central Chile respectively. Simulations are performed using focal mechanisms from both global earthquake catalogues, and regional earthquake catalogues. The VERCE platform supports specFEM Cartesian, and simulations are run using meshes produced by CUBIT. The full waveform modelling techniques supported on the VERCE platform are used to test the validity of a number of subduction zone velocity models from the Chilean subduction zone. For the Maule earthquake we use a 2D and 3D travel time tomography model of the rupture area (Hicks et al. 2011; 2014). For the Pisagua earthquake we test a 2D/3D composite velocity model based on tomographic studies of the region (e.g. Husen et al. 2000, Contreyes-Reyes et al. 2012) and slab1.0 (Hayes et al. 2012). Focal mechanisms from the cGMT catalogue and local focal mechanisms calculated using ISOLA (e.g. Agurto et al. 2012) are used in the simulations. The waveforms produced are directly compared to waveforms recorded on the temporary deployment for the Maule earthquake aftershocks, and waveforms recorded on the IPOC network for the Pisagua earthquake aftershocks. This work demonstrates how the VERCE platform allows waveforms from the full 3D simulations to be easily produced, allowing us to quantify the validity of both the velocity model and the source mechanisms. These simulations therefore provide an independent test of the velocity models produced synthetically and by travel time tomography studies. Initial results show that the waveform is reasonably well reproduced in the 0.05 - 0.25 frequency band using a refined 3D travel time tomography, and locally calculated focal mechanisms.

  17. Can We Forecast 1-Month Span Aftershock Activity from the First Day Data after the Main Shock?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omi, T.; Ogata, Y.; Hirata, Y.; Aihara, K.

    2014-12-01

    A large earthquake triggers persistent aftershock activity in and near the focal region. Thus, intermediate term forecasting of aftershocks at its earlier stage is important for mitigating seismic risks. A main difficulty for the early forecasting is the substantial incompleteness of early aftershock data. To deal with such incomplete data, we have developed a statistical model of the incomplete data, enabling us to obtain the immediate estimate of the forecasting models from incomplete data [1, 2]. Another difficulty for the intermediate term forecasting is that we have to determine the parameter values of the forecasting models with high accuracy, because even a small bias in the parameter values can lead to a significant bias of the forecasting in intermediate term. However such accurate estimation is quite difficult at the early stage, especially using the early and incomplete data. Here we present a Bayesian forecasting method by using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. The Bayesian forecasting considers not only the best parameter values such as the maximum likelihood estimates or maximum a posteriori estimates but also the estimation uncertainty of the parameter values. By analyzing aftershock sequences in Japan, we show the forecasting performances of the intermediate-term aftershocks can be significantly improved by considering the estimation uncertainty of the ETAS model [3]. Furthermore, we discuss the impact of the modeling of the magnitude frequency distribution of detected aftershocks within a day span on the forecasting of large aftershocks. [1] T. Omi, Y. Ogata, Y. Hirata and K. Aihara, "Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock", Scientific Reports 3, 2218 (2013). [2] T. Omi, Y. Ogata, Y. Hirata and K. Aihara, "Estimating the ETAS model from an early aftershock sequence", Geophysical Research Letters 41, 850 (2014). [3] T. Omi, Y. Ogata, Y. Hirata and K. Aihara, "Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks

  18. Systematic Changes Of Earthquake Rupture With Depth: A Case Study From The 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, Earthquake Aftershock Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolga Şen, Ali; Cesca, Simone; Heimann, Sebastian; Lange, Dietrich; Dahm, Torsten; Tilmann, Frederik

    2015-04-01

    The very shallow part of subduction megathrusts occasionally hosts tsunami earthquakes, with unusually slow rupture propagation. The aftershock sequence of the 2010 MW8.8 Maule earthquake, offshore Chile, provides us with the opportunity to study systematic changes in source properties for smaller earthquakes within a single segment of a subduction zone. We invert amplitude spectra for double couple moment tensors and centroid depths of 71 aftershocks of the Maule earthquake down to magnitudes MW 4.0 and 6.8. In addition, we also derive average source durations. Depending on the availability of data from a 130 broadband station temporary array, we employ two modelling schemes optimised for regional and teleseismic data. The resulting focal mechanisms highlight the correlation of the fault planes thrust earthquakes with the 3D slab model geometry in the area, and the occurrence of normal faulting earthquakes on a crustal fault system in the northernmost part of the study area. We find that shallower earthquakes tend to have longer normalized source durations on average, similar to the pattern observed previously for larger magnitude events. The normalised source durations of normal faulting earthquakes are at the lower end of those for thrust earthquakes, probably because of the higher stress drops of intraplate earthquakes compared to interplate earthquakes. Notably, a similar depth dependence is observable for thrust and normal earthquakes. We tentatively conclude from the similarity of the depth dependence of normal and thrust events and between smaller and larger magnitude earthquakes that the depth-dependent variation of rigidity is primarily responsible for the observed pattern rather than frictional conditional stability at the plate interface Tsunami earthquakes probably require both low rigidity and conditionally stable frictional conditions; the presence of long duration moderate magnitude events is therefore a helpful but not sufficient indicator for

  19. On the adaptive daily forecasting of seismic aftershock hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebrahimian, Hossein; Jalayer, Fatemeh; Asprone, Domenico; Lombardi, Anna Maria; Marzocchi, Warner; Prota, Andrea; Manfredi, Gaetano

    2013-04-01

    Post-earthquake ground motion hazard assessment is a fundamental initial step towards time-dependent seismic risk assessment for buildings in a post main-shock environment. Therefore, operative forecasting of seismic aftershock hazard forms a viable support basis for decision-making regarding search and rescue, inspection, repair, and re-occupation in a post main-shock environment. Arguably, an adaptive procedure for integrating the aftershock occurrence rate together with suitable ground motion prediction relations is key to Probabilistic Seismic Aftershock Hazard Assessment (PSAHA). In the short-term, the seismic hazard may vary significantly (Jordan et al., 2011), particularly after the occurrence of a high magnitude earthquake. Hence, PSAHA requires a reliable model that is able to track the time evolution of the earthquake occurrence rates together with suitable ground motion prediction relations. This work focuses on providing adaptive daily forecasts of the mean daily rate of exceeding various spectral acceleration values (the aftershock hazard). Two well-established earthquake occurrence models suitable for daily seismicity forecasts associated with the evolution of an aftershock sequence, namely, the modified Omori's aftershock model and the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) are adopted. The parameters of the modified Omori model are updated on a daily basis using Bayesian updating and based on the data provided by the ongoing aftershock sequence based on the methodology originally proposed by Jalayer et al. (2011). The Bayesian updating is used also to provide sequence-based parameter estimates for a given ground motion prediction model, i.e. the aftershock events in an ongoing sequence are exploited in order to update in an adaptive manner the parameters of an existing ground motion prediction model. As a numerical example, the mean daily rates of exceeding specific spectral acceleration values are estimated adaptively for the L'Aquila 2009

  20. The Aftershock Sequence of the 2008 Achaia, Greece, Earthquake: Joint Analysis of Seismicity Relocation and Persistent Scatterers Interferometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karakostas, Vassilis; Mirek, Katarzyna; Mesimeri, Maria; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Mirek, Janusz

    2016-08-01

    On 8 June 2008 an earthquake of Mw6.4 took place in the northwestern part of Peloponnese, Greece. The main shock was felt in a wide area and caused appreciable damage along the main rupture area and particularly at the antipodal of the main shock epicenter fault edge, implying strongly unilateral rupture and stopping phase effects. Abundant aftershocks were recorded within an area of ~50 km in length in the period 8 June 2008-end of 2014, by a sufficient number of stations that secure location accuracy because the regional network is adequately dense in the area. All the available phases from seismological stations in epicentral distances up to 140 km until the end of 2014 were used for relocation with the double difference technique and waveform cross-correlation. A quite clear 3-D representation is obtained for the aftershock zone geometry and dimensions, revealing the main rupture and the activated adjacent fault segments. SAR data are processed using Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterers (StaMPS) and a surface deformation map constructed based on PS point displacement for the coseismic period. A variable slip model, with maximum slip of ~1.0 m located at the lower part of the rupture plane, is suggested and used for calculating the deformation field which was found in adequate agreement with geodetic measurements. With the same slip model the static stress changes were calculated evidencing possible triggering of the neighboring faults that were brought closer to failure. The data availability allowed monitoring the temporal variation of b values that after a continuous increase in the first 5 days, returned and stabilized to 1.0-1.1 in the following years. The fluctuation duration is considered as the equivalent time for fault healing, which appeared very short but in full accordance with the cessation of onto-fault seismicity.

  1. The 1979 Homestead Valley earthquake sequence, California: control of aftershocks and postseismic deformation.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stein, R.S.; Lisowski, M.

    1983-01-01

    The coseismic slip and geometry of the March 15, 1979, Homestead Valley, California, earthquake sequence are well constrained by precise horizontal and vertical geodetic observations and by data from a dense local seismic network. These observations indicate 0.52 + or - 0.10 m of right-lateral slip and 0.17 + or - 0.04 m of reverse slip on a buried vertical 6-km-long and 5-km-deep fault and yield a mean static stress drop of 7.2 + or -1.3 MPa. The largest shock had Ms = 5.6. Observations of the ground rupture revealed up to 0.1 m of right-lateral slip on two mapped faults that are subparallel to the modeled seismic slip plane. In the 1.9 years since the earthquakes, geodetic network displacements indicate that an additional 60+ or -10 mm of postseismic creep took place. The rate of postseismic shear strain (0.53 + or - 0.13 mu rad/yr) measured within a 30 X 30-km network centered on the principal events was anomalously high compared to its preearthquake value and the postseismic rate in the adjacent network. This transient cannot be explained by postseismic slip on the seismic fault but rather indicates that broadside release of strain followed the earthquake sequence. -Authors

  2. Reduced Aftershock Productivity in Regions with Known Slow Slip Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, G.; Mina, A.; Richardson, E.; McGuire, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    Reduced aftershock activity has been observed in areas with high rates of aseismic slip, such as transform fault zones and some subduction zones. Fault conditions that could explain both of these observations include a low effective normal stress regime and/or a high temperature, semi-brittle/plastic rheology. To further investigate the possible connection between areas of aseismic slip and reduced aftershock productivity, we compared the mainshock-aftershock sequences in subduction zones where aseismic slip transients have been observed to those of adjacent (along-strike) regions where no slow slip events have been detected. Using the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) catalog, we counted aftershocks that occurred within 100 km and 14 days of 112 M>=5.0 slab earthquake mainshocks from January 1980 - July 2013, including 90 since January 2000, inside observed regions of detected slow slip: south central Alaska, Cascadia, the Nicoya Peninsula (Costa Rica), Guerrero (Mexico), and the North Island of New Zealand. We also compiled aftershock counts from 97 mainshocks from areas adjacent to each of these regions using the same criteria and over the same time interval. Preliminary analysis of these two datasets shows an aftershock triggering exponent (alpha in the ETAS model) of approximately 0.8, consistent with previous studies of aftershocks in a variety of tectonic settings. Aftershock productivity for both datasets is less than that of continental earthquakes. Contrasting the two datasets, aftershock productivity inside slow slip regions is lower than in adjacent areas along the same subduction zone and is comparable to that of mid-ocean ridge transform faults.

  3. Aftershock distribution as a constraint on the geodetic model of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bennington, Ninfa; Thurber, Clifford; Feigl, Kurt; ,

    2011-01-01

    Several studies of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake have linked the spatial distribution of the event’s aftershocks to the mainshock slip distribution on the fault. Using geodetic data, we find a model of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake with the constraint that the edges of coseismic slip patches align with aftershocks. The constraint is applied by encouraging the curvature of coseismic slip in each model cell to be equal to the negative of the curvature of seismicity density. The large patch of peak slip about 15 km northwest of the 2004 hypocenter found in the curvature-constrained model is in good agreement in location and amplitude with previous geodetic studies and the majority of strong motion studies. The curvature-constrained solution shows slip primarily between aftershock “streaks” with the continuation of moderate levels of slip to the southeast. These observations are in good agreement with strong motion studies, but inconsistent with the majority of published geodetic slip models. Southeast of the 2004 hypocenter, a patch of peak slip observed in strong motion studies is absent from our curvature-constrained model, but the available GPS data do not resolve slip in this region. We conclude that the geodetic slip model constrained by the aftershock distribution fits the geodetic data quite well and that inconsistencies between models derived from seismic and geodetic data can be attributed largely to resolution issues.

  4. April 25, 2015, Gorkha Earthquake, Nepal and Sequence of Aftershocks: Key Lessons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guragain, R.; Dixit, A. M.; Shrestha, S. N.

    2015-12-01

    The Gorkha Earthquake of M7.8 hit Nepal on April 25, 2015 at 11:56 am local time. The epicenter of this earthquake was Barpak, Gorkha, 80 km northwest of Kathmandu Valley. The main shock was followed by hundreds of aftershocks including M6.6 and M6.7 within 48 hours and M7.3 on May 12, 2015. According to the Government of Nepal, a total of 8,686 people lost their lives, 16,808 people injured, over 500,000 buildings completely collapsed and more than 250,000 building partially damaged. The National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal (NSET), a not-for-profit civil society organization that has been focused on earthquake risk reduction in Nepal for past 21 years, conducted various activities to support people and the government in responding to the earthquake disaster. The activities included: i) assisting people and critical facility institutions to conduct rapid visual building damage assessment including the training; ii) information campaign to provide proper information regarding earthquake safety; iii) support rescue organizations on search and rescue operations; and iv) provide technical support to common people on repair, retrofit of damaged houses. NSET is also involved in carrying out studies related to earthquake damage, geotechnical problems, and causes of building damages. Additionally, NSET has done post-earthquake detail damage assessment of buildings throughout the affected areas. Prior to the earthquake, NSET has been working with several institutions to improve seismic performance of school buildings, private residential houses, and other critical structures. Such activities implemented during the past decade have shown the effectiveness of risk reduction. Retrofitted school buildings performed very well during the earthquake. Preparedness activities implemented at community levels have helped communities to respond immediately and save lives. Higher level of earthquake awareness achieved including safe behavior, better understanding of

  5. Typical Scenario of Preparation, Implementation, and Aftershock Sequence of a Large Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodkin, Mikhail

    2016-04-01

    We have tried here to construct and examine the typical scenario of a large earthquake occurrence. The Harvard seismic moment GCMT catalog was used to construct the large earthquake generalized space-time vicinity (LEGV) and to investigate the seismicity behavior in LEGV. LEGV was composed of earthquakes falling into the zone of influence of any of the considerable number (100, 300, or 1,000) of largest earthquakes. The LEGV construction is aimed to enlarge the available statistics, diminish a strong random component, and to reveal in result the typical features of pre- and post-shock seismic activity in more detail. In result of the LEGV construction the character of fore- and aftershock cascades was examined in more detail than it was possible without of the use of the LEGV approach. It was shown also that the mean earthquake magnitude tends to increase, and the b-values, mean mb/mw ratios, apparent stress values, and mean depth tend to decrease. Amplitudes of all these anomalies increase with an approach to a moment of the generalized large earthquake (GLE) as a logarithm of time interval from GLE occurrence. Most of the discussed anomalies agree well with a common scenario of development of instability. Besides of such precursors of common character, one earthquake-specific precursor was found. The revealed decrease of mean earthquake depth during large earthquake preparation testifies probably for the deep fluid involvement in the process. The revealed in LEGV typical features of development of shear instability agree well with results obtained in laboratory acoustic emission (AE) study. Majority of the revealed anomalies appear to have a secondary character and are connected mainly with an increase in a mean earthquake magnitude in LEGV. The mean magnitude increase was shown to be connected mainly with a decrease of a portion of moderate size events (Mw 5.0 - 5.5) in a closer GLE vicinity. We believe that this deficit of moderate size events hardly can be

  6. Imaging the high-frequency energy radiation process of a main shock and its early aftershock sequence: The case of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawazaki, Kaoru; Enescu, Bogdan

    2014-06-01

    To understand the energy release process that operates at the end of the main shock rupture and start of the aftershock activity, we propose an inversion method that uses continuous high-frequency seismogram envelopes of the main shock and early aftershocks (i.e., events that occur at short times after the main shock). In our approach, the aftershock sequence is regarded as a continuous energy release process, rather than a discrete time series of events. To correct for the contribution of coda wave energy excited by multiple scattering, we use the theoretical envelope synthesized on the basis of the radiative transfer theory as a Green's function. The site amplification factors are corrected considering the conservation of energy flux and using the coda normalization method. The inverted temporal energy release rate for the 2008 MW 6.9 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, Japan, decays following t-1.1, at the lapse time t of 40-900 s after the main shock origin time. This exponent of the decay rate is similar to the p value of the modified Omori law. The amount of estimated energy release is consistent with that calculated from the magnitude listed in the aftershock catalog. Although the uncertainty is large, the location of large energy release at the lapse times of 40-900 s approximately overlaps to that of the aftershocks, which surrounds the large energy release area during the main shock faulting. The maxima of the energy release rate normalized by the average decay rate distributes following a power law, similar to the Gutenberg-Richter law.

  7. Aftershocks of the 2014 South Napa, California, Earthquake: Complex faulting on secondary faults

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Shelly, David R.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the aftershock sequence of the 2014 MW6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake. Low-magnitude aftershocks missing from the network catalog are detected by applying a matched-filter approach to continuous seismic data, with the catalog earthquakes serving as the waveform templates. We measure precise differential arrival times between events, which we use for double-difference event relocation in a 3D seismic velocity model. Most aftershocks are deeper than the mainshock slip, and most occur west of the mapped surface rupture. While the mainshock coseismic and postseismic slip appears to have occurred on the near-vertical, strike-slip West Napa fault, many of the aftershocks occur in a complex zone of secondary faulting. Earthquake locations in the main aftershock zone, near the mainshock hypocenter, delineate multiple dipping secondary faults. Composite focal mechanisms indicate strike-slip and oblique-reverse faulting on the secondary features. The secondary faults were moved towards failure by Coulomb stress changes from the mainshock slip. Clusters of aftershocks north and south of the main aftershock zone exhibit vertical strike-slip faulting more consistent with the West Napa Fault. The northern aftershocks correspond to the area of largest mainshock coseismic slip, while the main aftershock zone is adjacent to the fault area that has primarily slipped postseismically. Unlike most creeping faults, the zone of postseismic slip does not appear to contain embedded stick-slip patches that would have produced on-fault aftershocks. The lack of stick-slip patches along this portion of the fault may contribute to the low productivity of the South Napa aftershock sequence.

  8. When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ogata, Y.; Jones, L.M.; Toda, S.

    2003-01-01

    Seismic quiescence has attracted attention as a possible precursor to a large earthquake. However, sensitive detection of quiescence requires accurate modeling of normal aftershock activity. We apply the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model that is a natural extension of the modified Omori formula for aftershock decay, allowing further clusters (secondary aftershocks) within an aftershock sequence. The Hector Mine aftershock activity has been normal, relative to the decay predicted by the ETAS model during the 14 months of available data. In contrast, although the aftershock sequence of the 1992 Landers earthquake (M = 7.3), including the 1992 Big Bear earthquake (M = 6.4) and its aftershocks, fits very well to the ETAS up until about 6 months after the main shock, the activity showed clear lowering relative to the modeled rate (relative quiescence) and lasted nearly 7 years, leading up to the Hector Mine earthquake (M = 7.1) in 1999. Specifically, the relative quiescence occurred only in the shallow aftershock activity, down to depths of 5-6 km. The sequence of deeper events showed clear, normal aftershock activity well fitted to the ETAS throughout the whole period. We argue several physical explanations for these results. Among them, we strongly suspect aseismic slips within the Hector Mine rupture source that could inhibit the crustal relaxation process within "shadow zones" of the Coulomb's failure stress change. Furthermore, the aftershock activity of the 1992 Joshua Tree earthquake (M = 6.1) sharply lowered in the same day of the main shock, which can be explained by a similar scenario.

  9. GIS-based 3D modeling and visualization of the Mw7.7, 2007, Tocopilla aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eggert, S.; Sobiesiak, M.

    2009-04-01

    The November 14, 2007 Mw 7.7 earthquake nucleated on the west coast of northern Chile about 40 km east of the city of Tocopilla. It took place in the southern part of the of a large seismic gap namely, the Iquique subduction zone segment which is supposed to be at the end of its seismic cycle. The Tocopilla fault plane appears to be the northern continuation of the Mw 8.0, 1995 Antofagasta earthquake. We present a complex 3D model of the rupture area including first hypocenter localizations of aftershocks following the event. The data was recorded during a mission of the German Task Force for Earthquakes after the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake. 34 seismic stations were recording the aftershocks from November 2007 until May 2008. In general, subduction zones have a complex structure where most of the volumes examined are characterized by strong variations in physical and material parameters and are far away from a homogeneously layered half space. Therefore, 3D representation of the geophysical and geological conditions to be found are of great importance to understand such a subduction environment. Using ArcScene as a three-dimensional modeling tool gives us the possibility to visualize the aftershock distribution along the subducting slab and identify clear structures and clusters within the data set. Furthermore we combine the 2007 Tocopilla data set with the 1995 Antofagasta aftershocks which provides a new, three-dimensional insight into the segment boundary of these two events.

  10. Preliminary report on aftershock sequence for earthquake of January 31, 1986, near Painesville, Ohio (time period: 2/1/86-2/10/86)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Borcherdt, R. D.

    1986-01-01

    A ten-station array of broad-band digital instrumentation (GEOS) was deployed by the U. S. Geological Survey with partial support provided by Electric Power Research Institute to record the aftershock sequence of the moderate (mb ~ 4.9) earthquake that occurred on January 31, 1986 (16:46:43 UTC) near Painesville, Ohio. The occurrence of the event has raised questions concerning possible contributory factors to the occurrence of the event and questions concerning the character of earthquake-induced high-frequency ground motions in the area. To aid in the timely resolution of the implications of some of these questions, this preliminary report provides copies of the ground motion time-histories and corresponding spectra for the six identified aftershocks and two events, thought to be quarry blasts, recorded as of February 10, 1986. Recording station locations and epicenter locations based on two preliminary estimates of local seismic velocity structure are provided.

  11. Imaging the high-frequency energy radiation process of a mainshock and its early aftershock sequence for a crustal earthquake in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawazaki, K.; Enescu, B.

    2013-12-01

    Waveform recordings of aftershocks occurring immediately after a mainshock are mostly hidden by the coda wave of the mainshock and overlap one with each other. Consequently, the detection of such early events is very difficult and the completeness of earthquake catalogs at short times after large events becomes poor. To overcome this difficulty, we developed an inversion scheme which measures the energy radiation process of the early aftershock sequence using continuous seismogram envelopes in the 1-16 Hz frequency range. This inversion scheme makes use of the coda wave envelope, synthesized on the basis of the radiative transfer theory as the Green's function. Here the multiple isotropic scattering and intrinsic attenuation parameters in a 3-D infinite scattering medium are estimated through the multiple lapse time window analysis. The site amplification factor is also corrected using the coda normalization method. We apply the envelope inversion technique to the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, Japan (Mw6.9), and its early aftershock sequence. The inverted energy release rate has two stages. At 10-30 s and 30-600 s after the mainshock origin time, the energy release rate decays following t(-4 to -8) and t(-1 to -2), respectively. The modified Omori formula cannot fit the energy release rate before 30 s. This change in the temporal decay rate suggests that the mechanism of energy release process changes; the energy release from the termination stage of the mainshock rupture dominates before 30 s, while that by the early aftershocks dominates at later times.

  12. Estimating Spatially Variable Parameters of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nandan, Shyam; Ouillon, Guy; Sornette, Didier; Wiemer, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters, which is most likely a gross simplification considering the extremely heterogeneous structure of the Earth's crust. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm and spatial Voronoi tessellations. We assume that each Voronoi cell is characterized by a set of eight constant ETAS parameters. For a given number of randomly distributed cells, Vi=1 to N, we jointly invert the ETAS parameters within each cell using an EM algorithm. This process is progressively repeated several times for a given N (which controls the complexity), which is itself increased incrementally. We use the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to rank all the inverted models given their likelihood and complexity and select the top 1% models to compute the average model at any location. Using a synthetic catalog, we also check that the proposed method correctly inverts the known parameters. We apply the proposed method to earthquakes (M>=3) included in the ANSS catalog that occurred within the time period 1981-2016 in the spatial polygon defined by RELM/CSEP around California. The results indicate significant spatial variation of the ETAS parameters. Using these spatially variable estimates of ETAS parameters, we are better equipped to answer some important questions: (1) What is the seismic hazard (both long- and short-term) in a given region? (2) What kind of earthquakes dominate triggering? (3) are there regions where earthquakes are most likely preceded by foreshocks? Last but not the least, a possible correlation of the spatially varying ETAS parameters with spatially variable geophysical properties can lead to an improved understanding of the physics of earthquake triggering beside providing physical meaning to the parameters of the purely statistical ETAS model.

  13. The M w6.7 12 October 2013 western Hellenic Arc main shock and its aftershock sequence: implications for the slab properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Karakostas, Vassilis; Mesimeri, Maria; Vallianatos, Filippos

    2016-01-01

    The 12 October 2013 M w6.7 earthquake offshore Crete Island is one of the few strong earthquakes to have occurred in the last few decades in the southwestern part of the Hellenic subduction zone (HSZ), providing the opportunity to evaluate characteristics of the descending slab. The HSZ has experienced several strong (M ≥ 7.0) earthquakes in historical times with the largest one being the 365 AD, M w = 8.4 earthquake, the largest known ever occurred in the Mediterranean region. The 2013 main shock occurred in close proximity with the 365 event, on an interplate thrust fault at a depth of 26 km, onto the coupled part of the overriding and descending plates. GCMT solution shows a slightly oblique (rake = 130°) thrust faulting with downdip compression on a nearly horizontal (dip = 3°) northeast-dipping fault plane with strike (340°) parallel to the subduction front, with the compression axis being oriented in the direction of plate convergence. The subduction interface can be more clearly resolved with the integration of aftershock locations and CMT solution. For this scope, the aftershocks were relocated after obtaining a v p/v s ratio equal to 1.76, a one-dimensional velocity model and time delays that approximate the velocity structure of the study area, and the employment of double-difference technique for both phase pick data and cross-correlation differential times. The first-day relocated seismicity, alike aftershocks in the first 2 months, shows activation of an area at the upper part of the descending slab, with most activity being concentrated between 13 and 27 km, where the main shock is also encompassed. Aftershocks are rare near to the main shock, implying homogeneous slip on a large patch of the rupture plane. Based on the aftershock distribution, the size of the activated area estimated is about 24 km long and 17 km wide. Coulomb stress changes resolved for transpressive motion reveal negligible off-fault aftershock triggering, evidencing a

  14. The M w6.7 12 October 2013 western Hellenic Arc main shock and its aftershock sequence: implications for the slab properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Karakostas, Vassilis; Mesimeri, Maria; Vallianatos, Filippos

    2016-10-01

    The 12 October 2013 M w6.7 earthquake offshore Crete Island is one of the few strong earthquakes to have occurred in the last few decades in the southwestern part of the Hellenic subduction zone (HSZ), providing the opportunity to evaluate characteristics of the descending slab. The HSZ has experienced several strong ( M ≥ 7.0) earthquakes in historical times with the largest one being the 365 AD, M w = 8.4 earthquake, the largest known ever occurred in the Mediterranean region. The 2013 main shock occurred in close proximity with the 365 event, on an interplate thrust fault at a depth of 26 km, onto the coupled part of the overriding and descending plates. GCMT solution shows a slightly oblique (rake = 130°) thrust faulting with downdip compression on a nearly horizontal (dip = 3°) northeast-dipping fault plane with strike (340°) parallel to the subduction front, with the compression axis being oriented in the direction of plate convergence. The subduction interface can be more clearly resolved with the integration of aftershock locations and CMT solution. For this scope, the aftershocks were relocated after obtaining a v p/ v s ratio equal to 1.76, a one-dimensional velocity model and time delays that approximate the velocity structure of the study area, and the employment of double-difference technique for both phase pick data and cross-correlation differential times. The first-day relocated seismicity, alike aftershocks in the first 2 months, shows activation of an area at the upper part of the descending slab, with most activity being concentrated between 13 and 27 km, where the main shock is also encompassed. Aftershocks are rare near to the main shock, implying homogeneous slip on a large patch of the rupture plane. Based on the aftershock distribution, the size of the activated area estimated is about 24 km long and 17 km wide. Coulomb stress changes resolved for transpressive motion reveal negligible off-fault aftershock triggering, evidencing a

  15. Aftershock Decay Rates in the Iranian Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ommi, S.; Zafarani, H.; Zare, M.

    2016-07-01

    Motivated by the desire to have more information following the occurrence of damaging events, the main purpose of this article is to study aftershock sequence parameters in the Iranian plateau. To this end, the catalogue of the Iranian earthquakes between 2002 to the end of 2013 has been collected and homogenized among which 15 earthquakes have been selected to study their aftershock decay rates. For different tectonic provinces, the completeness magnitudes ( M c) of the earthquake catalogue have been calculated in different time intervals. Also, the M c variability in spatial and temporal windows has been determined for each selected event. For major Iranian earthquakes, catalogue of aftershocks has been collected thanks to three declustering methods: first, the classical windowing method of Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64:1363-1367, 1974); second, a modified version of this using spatial windowing based on the Wells and Coppersmith (Bull Seismol Soc Am 84:974-1002, 1994) relations; and third, the Burkhard and Grünthal (Swiss J Geosci 102:149-188, 2009) scheme. Effects of the temporal windows also have been investigated using the time periods of 1 month, 100 days, and 1 year in the declustering method of Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64:1363-1367, 1974). In the next step, the modified Omori law coefficients have been calculated for the 15 selected earthquakes. The calibrated regional generic model describing the temporal and magnitude distribution of aftershocks is of interest for time-dependent seismic hazard forecasts. The regional characteristics of the aftershock decay rates have been studied for the selected Iranian earthquakes in the Alborz, Zagros and Central Iran regions considering their different seismotectonics regimes. However, due to the lack of sufficient data, no results have been reported for the Kopeh-Dagh and Makran seismotectonic regions.

  16. Comparison between Utsu's and Vere-Jones' aftershocks model by means of a computer simulation based on the acceptance-rejection sampling of von Neumann

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reyes, J.; Morales-Esteban, A.; González, E.; Martínez-Álvarez, F.

    2016-07-01

    In this research, a new algorithm for generating a stochastic earthquake catalog is presented. The algorithm is based on the acceptance-rejection sampling of von Neumann. The result is a computer simulation of earthquakes based on the calculated statistical properties of each zone. Vere-Jones states that an earthquake sequence can be modeled as a series of random events. This is the model used in the proposed simulation. Contrariwise, Utsu indicates that the mainshocks are special geophysical events. The algorithm has been applied to zones of Chile, China, Spain, Japan, and the USA. This allows classifying the zones according to Vere-Jones' or Utsu's model. The results have been quantified relating the mainshock with the largest aftershock within the next 5 days (which has been named as Bath event). The results show that some zones fit Utsu's model and others Vere-Jones'. Finally, the fraction of seismic events that satisfy certain properties of magnitude and occurrence is analyzed.

  17. Source Process of the Mw 5.0 Au Sable Forks, New York, Earthquake Sequence from Local Aftershock Monitoring Network Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, W.; Seeber, L.; Armbruster, J. G.

    2002-12-01

    On April 20, 2002, a Mw 5 earthquake occurred near the town of Au Sable Forks, northeastern Adirondacks, New York. The quake caused moderate damage (MMI VII) around the epicentral area and it is well recorded by over 50 broadband stations in the distance ranges of 70 to 2000 km in the Eastern North America. Regional broadband waveform data are used to determine source mechanism and focal depth using moment tensor inversion technique. Source mechanism indicates predominantly thrust faulting along 45° dipping fault plane striking due South. The mainshock is followed by at least three strong aftershocks with local magnitude (ML) greater than 3 and about 70 aftershocks are detected and located in the first three months by a 12-station portable seismographic network. The aftershock distribution clearly delineate the mainshock rupture to the westerly dipping fault plane at a depth of 11 to 12 km. Preliminary analysis of the aftershock waveform data indicates that orientation of the P-axis rotated 90° from that of the mainshock, suggesting a complex source process of the earthquake sequence. We achieved an important milestone in monitoring earthquakes and evaluating their hazards through rapid cross-border (Canada-US) and cross-regional (Central US-Northeastern US) collaborative efforts. Hence, staff at Instrument Software Technology, Inc. near the epicentral area joined Lamont-Doherty staff and deployed the first portable station in the epicentral area; CERI dispatched two of their technical staff to the epicentral area with four accelerometers and a broadband seismograph; the IRIS/PASSCAL facility shipped three digital seismographs and ancillary equipment within one day of the request; the POLARIS Consortium, Canada sent a field crew of three with a near real-time, satellite telemetry based earthquake monitoring system. The Polaris station, KSVO, powered by a solar panel and batteries, was already transmitting data to the central Hub in London, Ontario, Canada within

  18. Aftershock Number for Forecasting Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christophersen, A.; Smith, E. G.

    2004-12-01

    Data from earthquakes worldwide with depths shallower than 70 km were combined from the International Seismological Centre, the US National Earthquake Information Center, Blacknest, and Harvard. An extensive magnitude and catalogue completeness study defined a `best' magnitude using the Harvard moment as a reference. The catalogue covers the period 1964 to 1995 and is effectively complete for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 and above. The data were divided into six tectonic settings, and searched for related events using a simple window in space and time. An objective method was developed to define an elliptical aftershock area. The database of aftershock sequences has about 28,000 mainshocks of which about 2,400 have a magnitude M ≥ 6.0, and these were followed by a total of about 7,000 aftershocks. The database was analyzed in space, time, magnitude, and in the number of aftershocks in a sequence, hereafter called abundance. The aftershock decay in time and the magnitude-frequency distribution follow well- established empirical laws, Omori's law and the Gutenberg and Richter relationship. These relationships were analyzed by stacking data from various sequences within the same tectonic setting. The p-value for the aftershock decay in time was found to be 1.0 for subduction and collision zones, and for regions of mixed tectonic character like New Zealand. For mid-ocean ridges the p-value of the present dataset is 1.19 ± 0.08 and for intracontinental zones 0.86 ± 0.14. The b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation is 1.0 for aftershock sequences in all settings. No variation of the b-value with time was observed. The abundance varies greatly from sequence to sequence. It can be modeled by a geometric distribution, where the mean abundance N grows exponentially with mainshock magnitude, M i.e. log N is proportional to M. The distribution parameters for time, magnitude and abundance can be combined to probabilistically predict the number of aftershocks in a given

  19. The 16 April 2015 M w 6.0 offshore eastern Crete earthquake and its aftershock sequence: implications for local/regional seismotectonics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Görgün, Ethem; Kekovalı, Kıvanç; Kalafat, Doğan

    2016-08-01

    We examine the 16 April 2015 M w 6.0 offshore eastern Crete earthquake and its aftershock sequence in southern Aegean Sea. Centroid moment tensors for 45 earthquakes with moment magnitudes (M w) between 3.3 and 6.0 are determined by applying a waveform inversion method. The mainshock is shallow focus thrust event with a strike-slip component at a depth of 30 km. The seismic moment (M o) of the mainshock is estimated as 1.33 × 1018 Nm, and rupture duration of the mainshock is 3.5 s. The focal mechanisms of aftershocks are mainly thrust faulting with a strike-slip component. The geometry of the moment tensors (M w ≥ 3.3) reveals a thrust-faulting regime with NE-SW-trending direction of T axis in the entire activated region. According to high-resolution hypocenter relocation of the eastern Crete earthquake sequence, one main cluster consisting of 352 events is revealed. The aftershock activity in the observation period between 5 January 2015 and 7 July 2015 extends from N to S direction. Seismic cross sections indicate a complex pattern of the hypocenter distribution with the activation of three segments. The subduction interface is clearly revealed with high-resolution hypocenter relocation and moment tensor solution. The best constrained focal depths indicate that the aftershock sequence is mainly confined in the upper plate (depth <40 km) and are ranging from about 4.5 to 39 km depth. A stress tensor inversion of focal mechanism data is performed to obtain a more precise picture of the offshore eastern Crete stress field. The stress tensor inversion results indicate a predominant thrust stress regime with a NW-SE-oriented maximum horizontal compressive stress (S H). According to variance of the stress tensor inversion, to first order, the Crete region is characterized by a homogeneous interplate stress field. We also investigate the Coulomb stress change associated with the mainshock to evaluate any significant enhancement of stresses along Crete and surrounding

  20. Performance of aftershock forecasts: problem and formulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, C.; Wu, Z.; Li, L.

    2010-12-01

    WFSD project deals with the problems of earthquake physics, in which one of the important designed aims is the forecast of the on-going aftershock activity of the Wenchuan earthquake, taking the advantage of the fast response to great earthquakes. Correlation between fluid measurements and aftershocks provided heuristic clues to the forecast of aftershocks, invoking the discussion on the performance of such ‘precursory anomalies’, even if in a retrospective perspective. In statistical seismology, one of the critical issues is how to test the statistical significance of an earthquake forecast scheme against real seismic activity. Due to the special characteristics of aftershock series and the feature of aftershock forecasts that it deals with a limited spatial range and specific temporal duration, the test of the performance of aftershock forecasts has to be different from the standard tests for main shock series. In this presentation we address and discuss the possible schemes for testing the performance of aftershock forecasts - a seemingly simple but practically important issue in statistical seismology. As a simple and preliminary approach, we use an alternative form of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) test, as well as other similar tests, considering the properties of aftershock series by using Omori law, ETAS model, and/or CFS calculation. We also discussed the lessons and experiences of the Wenchuan aftershock forecasts, exploring how to make full use of the present knowledge of the regularity of aftershocks to serve the earthquake rescue and relief endeavor as well as the post-earthquake reconstruction.

  1. Evidence that Stress Amplitude Does Not Affect the Temporal Distribution of Aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Felzer, K. R.

    2005-12-01

    Most physical aftershock triggering models, including the rate and state friction model of Dieterich (1994), the stress corrosion model (see discussion in Gomberg, 2001) and other accelerating failure models predict that larger stress changes on a fault will lead to an aftershocks that happens more quickly (larger clock advance), all else equal. Thus as stress change amplitude decreases with distance from the mainshock, there is an expected shift in the aftershock distribution toward longer time delays. This effect was formalized by Dieterich (1994) as an increase of the modified Omori Law c value (N(t) = A/(t+c)p where t = time, N(t) = aftershock rate, and A, p, and c are constants). Jones and Hauksson (1998), however, found no change in c value with distance after the 1992 MW 7.3 Landers earthquake. The assumption that the aftershock temporal distribution is independent of distance is also made in ETAS (Epidemic Triggering Aftershock Sequence) aftershock simulations (Ogata, 1998; Helmstetter, 2002) without adverse affect on fitting real data. Here we verify the independence of stress change and aftershock temporal distribution using a data set of 33 M 5-6 mainshocks from throughout California. These mainshocks are large enough to produce a significant number of aftershocks in the near and far field, but small enough to be frequent and thus provide good statistical sampling. Our data verifies that the temporal distribution of aftershocks is independent of stress change amplitude. We suggest that the most likely explanation for this observation is that the timing of each fault that participates in an aftershock sequence is independent of the amplitude of the stress that triggers it. In this case aftershock decay with distance from the mainshock cannot be caused by smaller clock advances on lesser-stressed faults, as in the Dieterich (1994) model, but rather by a stress amplitude dependent probability that a fault will be clock advanced at all. In future work we

  2. Aftershocks and triggered events of the Great 1906 California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    and an M ???5.0 event under or near Santa Monica Bay, 11.3 and 31.3 hr after the San Francisco mainshock, respectively. The western Arizona event is inferred to have been triggered dynamically. In general, the largest aftershocks occurred at the ends of the 1906 rupture or away from the rupture entirely; very few significant aftershocks occurred along the mainshock rupture itself. The total number of large aftershocks was less than predicted by a generic model based on typical California mainshock-aftershock statistics, and the 1906 sequence appears to have decayed more slowly than average California sequences. Similarities can be drawn between the 1906 aftershock sequence and that of the 1857 (Mw 7.9) San Andreas fault earthquake.

  3. Nonlinear Viscoelastic Stress Transfer As a Possible Aftershock Triggering Mechanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Shcherbakov, R.

    2014-12-01

    The earthquake dynamics can be modelled by employing the spring-block system [Burridge and Knopoff, 1967]. In this approach the earthquake fault is modelled by an array of blocks coupling the loading plate and the lower plate. The dynamics of the system is governed by the system of equations of motion for each block. It is possible to map this system into a cellular automata model, where the stress acting on each block is increased in each time step, and the failing process (frictional slip) is described by stress transfer rules [Olami et al, 1992]. The OFC model produces a power-law distribution for avalanche statistics but it is not capable of producing robust aftershock sequences which follow Omori's law.We propose a nonlinear viscoelastic stress transfer mechanism in the aftershock triggering. In a basic spring-block model setting, we introduce the nonlinear viscoelastic stress transfer between neighbouring blocks, as well as between blocks and the top loading plate. The shear stress of the viscous component is a power-law function of the velocity gradient with an exponent smaller or greater than 1 for the nonlinear viscoelasticity, or 1 for the linear case. The stress transfer function of this nonlinear viscoelastic model has a power-law time-dependent form. It features an instantaneous stress transmission triggering an instantaneous avalanche, which is the same as the original spring-block model; and a power-law relaxation term, which could trigger further aftershocks. We incorporate this nonlinear viscoelasticity mechanism in a lattice cellular automata model. The model could exhibit both the Gutenberg-Richter scaling for the frequency-magnitude distribution and a power-law time decay of aftershocks, which is in accordance with Omori's law. Our study suggests that the stress transfer function may play an important role in the aftershock triggering. We have found that the time decay curve of aftershocks is affected by the shape of the stress transfer function

  4. The LVD signals during the early-mid stages of the L'Aquila seismic sequence and the radon signature of some aftershocks of moderate magnitude.

    PubMed

    Cigolini, C; Laiolo, M; Coppola, D

    2015-01-01

    The L'Aquila seismic swarm culminated with the mainshock of April 6, 2009 (ML = 5.9). Here, we report and analyze the Large Volume Detector (LVD, used in neutrinos research) low energy traces (∼0.8 MeV), collected during the early-mid stages of the seismic sequence, together with the data of a radon monitoring experiment. The peaks of LVD traces do not correlate with the evolution and magnitude of earthquakes, including major aftershocks. Conversely, our radon measurements obtained by utilizing three automatic stations deployed along the regional NW-SE faulting system, seem to be, in one case, more efficient. In fact, the timeseries collected on the NW-SE Paganica fracture recorded marked variations and peaks that occurred during and prior moderate aftershocks (with ML > 3). The Paganica monitoring station (PGN) seems to better responds to active seismicity due to the fact that the radon detector was placed directly within the bedrock of an active fault. It is suggested that future networks for radon monitoring of active seismicity should preferentially implement this setting. PMID:25464041

  5. The LVD signals during the early-mid stages of the L'Aquila seismic sequence and the radon signature of some aftershocks of moderate magnitude.

    PubMed

    Cigolini, C; Laiolo, M; Coppola, D

    2015-01-01

    The L'Aquila seismic swarm culminated with the mainshock of April 6, 2009 (ML = 5.9). Here, we report and analyze the Large Volume Detector (LVD, used in neutrinos research) low energy traces (∼0.8 MeV), collected during the early-mid stages of the seismic sequence, together with the data of a radon monitoring experiment. The peaks of LVD traces do not correlate with the evolution and magnitude of earthquakes, including major aftershocks. Conversely, our radon measurements obtained by utilizing three automatic stations deployed along the regional NW-SE faulting system, seem to be, in one case, more efficient. In fact, the timeseries collected on the NW-SE Paganica fracture recorded marked variations and peaks that occurred during and prior moderate aftershocks (with ML > 3). The Paganica monitoring station (PGN) seems to better responds to active seismicity due to the fact that the radon detector was placed directly within the bedrock of an active fault. It is suggested that future networks for radon monitoring of active seismicity should preferentially implement this setting.

  6. International Aftershock Forecasting: Lessons from the Gorkha Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michael, A. J.; Blanpied, M. L.; Brady, S. R.; van der Elst, N.; Hardebeck, J.; Mayberry, G. C.; Page, M. T.; Smoczyk, G. M.; Wein, A. M.

    2015-12-01

    Following the M7.8 Gorhka, Nepal, earthquake of April 25, 2015 the USGS issued a series of aftershock forecasts. The initial impetus for these forecasts was a request from the USAID Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance to support their Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) which coordinated US Government disaster response, including search and rescue, with the Government of Nepal. Because of the possible utility of the forecasts to people in the region and other response teams, the USGS released these forecasts publicly through the USGS Earthquake Program web site. The initial forecast used the Reasenberg and Jones (Science, 1989) model with generic parameters developed for active deep continental regions based on the Garcia et al. (BSSA, 2012) tectonic regionalization. These were then updated to reflect a lower productivity and higher decay rate based on the observed aftershocks, although relying on teleseismic observations, with a high magnitude-of-completeness, limited the amount of data. After the 12 May M7.3 aftershock, the forecasts used an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model to better characterize the multiple sources of earthquake clustering. This model provided better estimates of aftershock uncertainty. These forecast messages were crafted based on lessons learned from the Christchurch earthquake along with input from the U.S. Embassy staff in Kathmandu. Challenges included how to balance simple messaging with forecasts over a variety of time periods (week, month, and year), whether to characterize probabilities with words such as those suggested by the IPCC (IPCC, 2010), how to word the messages in a way that would translate accurately into Nepali and not alarm the public, and how to present the probabilities of unlikely but possible large and potentially damaging aftershocks, such as the M7.3 event, which had an estimated probability of only 1-in-200 for the week in which it occurred.

  7. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AFTERSHOCK SEQUENCE OF THE BORAH PEAK, IDAHO, EARTHQUAKE DETERMINED FROM DIGITAL RECORDINGS OF THE EVENTS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boatwright, John

    1985-01-01

    The U. S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, deployed and maintained a network of twelve digital instruments over the 2 weeks following the October 28, 1983, Borah Peak, Idaho, earthquake. The network recorded 45 events with M greater than equivalent to 3. 0, and 6 events with M less than equivalent to 4. 0. The seismic moments of the aftershocks increase with increasing hypocentral depth below 12 km. The dynamic stress drops of the events do not show any systematic variation with depth, however. Most of the events with large stress drops are clustered in the northwest limb of the aftershock distribution; the average stress drop of the southern events is 31 plus or minus 16 bars, while the average stress drop of the events in the northwest limb is 77 plus or minus 52 bars. This clustering of events with large stress drops marks an apparent stress concentration, possibly associated with the arrest of the main shock rupture propagation by a fracture barrier at depth.

  8. Seismic moment ratio of aftershocks with respect to main shocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zakharova, O.; Hainzl, S.; Bach, C.

    2013-11-01

    The empirical Båth's law indicates that the earthquake process is self-similar and provides an opportunity to estimate the magnitude of the largest aftershock subsequent to a main shock. However, the analysis of this relation is limited to a small magnitude range and also depends on the aftershock selection rules. As an alternative, we analyze, in this paper, the cumulative seismic moment of aftershocks relative to the main shock moment, because (i) it is a physical quantity that does not only take the largest aftershock into account; (ii) background activity can be considered and as a result estimations are less affected by selection rules; and (iii) the effects of the catalog cut-off magnitude can be corrected, what leads to larger magnitude range for the analysis. We analyze the global preliminary determination of epicenters U.S. Geological Society catalog (combined with centroid moment tensor focal mechanisms) and find that the seismic moment release of aftershocks is on average approximately 5% of the main shock seismic moment. We show that the results can be well fitted by simulations of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model. In particular, we test whether simulations constrained by predictions of the static stress-triggering model, proposing a break of self-similarity due to the finite seismogenic width, are in agreement with observations. Our analysis shows that the observed dependency on the main shock magnitude as well as systematic variations with the main shock fault plane solution can be both explained by the constraints based on the static stress triggering.

  9. Rupture Processes of the Mw8.3 Sea of Okhotsk Earthquake and Aftershock Sequences from 3-D Back Projection Imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jian, P. R.; Hung, S. H.; Meng, L.

    2014-12-01

    On May 24, 2013, the largest deep earthquake ever recorded in history occurred on the southern tip of the Kamchatka Island, where the Pacific Plate subducts underneath the Okhotsk Plate. Previous 2D beamforming back projection (BP) of P- coda waves suggests the mainshock ruptured bilaterally along a horizontal fault plane determined by the global centroid moment tensor solution. On the other hand, the multiple point source inversion of P and SH waveforms argued that the earthquake comprises a sequence of 6 subevents not located on a single plane but actually distributed in a zone that extends 64 km horizontally and 35 km in depth. We then apply a three-dimensional MUSIC BP approach to resolve the rupture processes of the manishock and two large aftershocks (M6.7) with no a priori setup of preferential orientations of the planar rupture. The maximum pseudo-spectrum of high-frequency P wave in a sequence of time windows recorded by the densely-distributed stations from US and EU Array are used to image 3-D temporal and spatial rupture distribution. The resulting image confirms that the nearly N-S striking but two antiparallel rupture stages. The first subhorizontal rupture initially propagates toward the NNE direction, while at 18 s later it directs reversely to the SSW and concurrently shifts downward to 35 km deeper lasting for about 20 s. The rupture lengths in the first NNE-ward and second SSW-ward stage are about 30 km and 85 km; the estimated rupture velocities are 3 km/s and 4.25 km/s, respectively. Synthetic experiments are undertaken to assess the capability of the 3D MUSIC BP for the recovery of spatio-temporal rupture processes. Besides, high frequency BP images based on the EU-Array data show two M6.7 aftershocks are more likely to rupture on the vertical fault planes.

  10. Analysing the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes with recent instrumentally recorded aftershocks.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Karl; Hough, Susan E; Bilham, Roger

    2004-05-20

    Although dynamic stress changes associated with the passage of seismic waves are thought to trigger earthquakes at great distances, more than 60 per cent of all aftershocks appear to be triggered by static stress changes within two rupture lengths of a mainshock. The observed distribution of aftershocks may thus be used to infer details of mainshock rupture geometry. Aftershocks following large mid-continental earthquakes, where background stressing rates are low, are known to persist for centuries, and models based on rate-and-state friction laws provide theoretical support for this inference. Most past studies of the New Madrid earthquake sequence have indeed assumed ongoing microseismicity to be a continuing aftershock sequence. Here we use instrumentally recorded aftershock locations and models of elastic stress change to develop a kinematically consistent rupture scenario for three of the four largest earthquakes of the 1811-1812 New Madrid sequence. Our results suggest that these three events occurred on two contiguous faults, producing lobes of increased stress near fault intersections and end points, in areas where present-day microearthquakes have been hitherto interpreted as evidence of primary mainshock rupture. We infer that the remaining New Madrid mainshock may have occurred more than 200 km north of this region in the Wabash Valley of southern Indiana and Illinois--an area that contains abundant modern microseismicity, and where substantial liquefaction was documented by historic accounts. Our results suggest that future large mid-plate earthquake sequences may extend over a much broader region than previously suspected.

  11. Analysing the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes with recent instrumentally recorded aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mueller, K.; Hough, S.E.; Bilham, R.

    2004-01-01

    Although dynamic stress changes associated with the passage of seismic waves are thought to trigger earthquakes at great distances, more than 60 per cent of all aftershocks appear to be triggered by static stress changes within two rupture lengths of a mainshock. The observed distribution of aftershocks may thus be used to infer details of mainshock rupture geometry. Aftershocks following large mid-continental earthquakes, where background stressing rates are low, are known to persist for centuries, and models based on rate-and-state friction laws provide theoretical support for this inference. Most past studies of the New Madrid earthquake sequence have indeed assumed ongoing microseismicity to be a continuing aftershock sequence. Here we use instrumentally recorded aftershock locations and models of elastic stress change to develop a kinematically consistent rupture scenario for three of the four largest earthquakes of the 1811-1812 New Madrid sequence. Our results suggest that these three events occurred on two contiguous faults, producing lobes of increased stress near fault intersections and end points, in areas where present-day microearthquakes have been hitherto interpreted as evidence of primary mainshock rupture. We infer that the remaining New Madrid mainshock may have occurred more than 200 km north of this region in the Wabash Valley of southern Indiana and Illinois-an area that contains abundant modern microseismicity, and where substantial liquefaction was documented by historic accounts. Our results suggest that future large midplate earthquake sequences may extend over a much broader region than previously suspected.

  12. Forecasting aftershock activity: 1. Adaptive estimates based on the Omori and Gutenberg-Richter laws

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baranov, S. V.; Shebalin, P. N.

    2016-05-01

    The method for forecasting the intensity of the aftershock processes after strong earthquakes in different magnitude intervals is considered. The method is based on the joint use of the time model of the aftershock process and the Gutenberg-Richter law. The time model serves for estimating the intensity of the aftershock flow with a magnitude larger than or equal to the magnitude of completeness. The Gutenberg-Richter law is used for magnitude scaling. The suggested approach implements successive refinement of the parameters of both components of the method, which is the main novelty distinguishing it from the previous ones. This approach, to a significant extent, takes into account the variations in the parameters of the frequency-magnitude distribution, which often show themselves by the decreasing fraction of stronger aftershocks with time. Testing the method on eight aftershock sequences in the regions with different patterns of seismicity demonstrates the high probability of successful forecasts. The suggested technique can be employed in seismological monitoring centers for forecasting the aftershock activity of a strong earthquake based on the results of operational processing.

  13. Aftershocks of the 2014 M6 South Napa Earthquake: Detection, Location, and Focal Mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardebeck, J.; Shelly, D. R.

    2014-12-01

    The aftershock sequence of the South Napa earthquake is notable both for its low productivity and for its geometric complexity. The aftershocks do not clearly define a fault plane consistent with the NNW-striking vertical plane implied by the mainshock moment tensor and the mapped surface rupture, but instead seem to delineate multiple secondary structures at depth. We investigate this unusual sequence by identifying additional aftershocks that do not appear in the network catalog, relocating the combined aftershock catalog using waveform cross-correlation arrival times and double-difference techniques, and determining focal mechanisms for individual events and event clusters. Additional aftershocks are detected by applying a matched filter approach to the continuous seismic data at nearby stations, with the catalog earthquakes serving as the waveform templates. In tandem with new event detections, we measure precise differential arrival times between events, which we then use in double-difference event location. We detect about 4 times as many well-located aftershocks as in the network catalog. We relocate the events using double-difference in both a 1D and a 3D velocity model. Most of the aftershocks occur between 8 and 11 km depth, similar depth to the mainshock hypocenter and deeper than most of the slip imaged seismically and geodetically. The aftershocks form a diffuse NNW-trending structure, primarily to the north of the mainshock hypocenter and on the west side of the main surface rupture. Within this diffuse trend there are clusters of aftershocks, some suggesting a N-S strike, and some that appear to dip to the east or west. Preliminary single-event and composite focal mechanisms also imply N-S striking strike-slip structures. The mainshock hypocenter and many of the aftershocks occur near the intersection of a sharply defined NE-dipping seismicity structure and the probable location of the West Napa fault, suggesting that stress is concentrated at a

  14. Forecasting area of strong aftershock occurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baranov, Sergey; Shebalin, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Forecasting an area of strong aftershock was never, at our knowledge, considered in terms of operational forecasting. Different declustering models exist to separate post-factum the aftershocks from "independent" events. Large number of studies discussed in previous years the form of the distribution of the aftershocks distances from the mainshock fault. Here we present results of our attempts to assimilate the above researches into a model that can be used in operational aftershock forecasting. Our study was based on data provided by ANSS catalog for 1980-2015. We tried more than 20 well known and suggested by ourselves models of aftershock areas to retrospective forecasting of strong aftershock areas. We tried the models based on data for 12 hours after a mainshock and estimated their forecast quality using special modification of L-test to achieve an optimal model. As a result of our study is a model that can be used in operational forecasting area of strong aftershocks. The research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project 16-05-00263A).

  15. Statistical Properties of Mine Tremor Aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kgarume, T. E.; Spottiswoode, S. M.; Durrheim, R. J.

    2010-02-01

    Mine tremors and their aftershocks pose a risk to mine workers in the deep gold mines of South Africa. The statistical properties of mine-tremor aftershocks were investigated as part of an endeavour to assess the hazard and manage the risk. Data from two gold mines in the Carletonville mining district were used in the analysis. Main shocks were aligned in space and time and the aftershock sequences stacked and analysed. The aftershocks were found to satisfy Gutenberg-Richter scaling, with a b value close to 1. Aftershock activity diminished with time in accordance with the modified Omori law, with p values close to 1. However, the relationship between the main shock and its biggest aftershock violated Båths law, with Δ M L ≈ 1.9 for main shocks with M L < 3 and increasing for main shocks with M L > 3. The aftershock density was found to fall-off with distance as r -1.3, suggesting triggering by dynamic stress.

  16. Evidence Against the New Madrid Long-Lived Aftershock Hypothesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Page, M. T.; Hough, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    It has been suggested that continuing seismicity in the New Madrid, central U.S. region is primarily composed of the continuing long-lived aftershock sequence of the 1811-1812 sequence, and thus cannot be taken as an indication of present-day strain accrual in the region. We examine historical and instrumental seismicity in the New Madrid region to determine if such a model is feasible given 1) the observed protracted nature of past New Madrid sequences, with multiple mainshocks with apparently similar magnitudes; 2) historical rates of M≥6 earthquakes after the initial activity in 1811-1812; and 3) the modern seismicity rate in the region. We use ETAS modeling to search for sub-critical sets of direct Omori parameters that are consistent with all of these datasets, given a realistic consideration of their uncertainties. High aftershock productivity is required both to match the observation of multiple mainshocks and to explain the modern level of activity as aftershocks; synthetic sequences consistent with these observations substantially overpredict the number of events of M≥6 that were observed in the past 200 years. Our results imply that ongoing background seismicity in the New Madrid region is driven by ongoing strain accrual processes and that, despite low deformation rates, seismic activity in the zone is not decaying with time.

  17. Aftershock Statistics explained from Geometric Reductionism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mignan, Arnaud

    2016-04-01

    The decay of aftershocks has recently been shown to follow a stretched exponential function instead of the Omori law (Mignan, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2015). This triggers a complete re-investigation of aftershock statistics in Southern California and a new physical interpretation of these results: (1) After verifying the stretched exponential behavior of aftershocks in time, I show that aftershocks follow a pure exponential in space. I then (re)demonstrate that K(M) = exp(α(M-mmin-ΔmB)) with K the aftershock production by mainshock magnitude M, α the Gutenberg-Richter distribution slope and ΔmB Båth's parameter. Based on these observations, I propose the Recursive Aftershock Stretched Exponential (RASE) model. (2) I investigate the origin of aftershocks using geometric reductionism made possible by the Non-Critical Precursory Accelerating Seismicity Theory postulate, which states that spatial density switches from δb0 for background seismicity to δbp for activated events (such as foreshocks, induced seismicity and here aftershocks) when the static stress field σ(r) exceeds the threshold σ(rA*) ∝ Δσ* with r the distance to source. The postulate explains the exponential spatial distribution (assuming that aftershocks fill a noisy fractal network within rA*) and aftershock production (assuming a constant stress drop) with K(M) = δbp.V(M), V being the volume of a rounded cuboid centred on the fault of length l ∝ exp(αM), and with radius rA*. Finally the observed stretching factor β ≈ 0.4 is explained topologically from the fractal dimension D ≈ 1.5.

  18. The 2010 Haiti earthquake sequence: new insight of the tectonic pattern from aftershocks and marine geophysical data : Haiti-OBS cruise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mercier de Lepinay, B. F.; Mazabraud, Y.; Klingelhoefer, F.; Clouard, V.; Hello, Y.; Graindorge, D.; Marcaillou, B.; Crozon, J.; Saurel, J.; Charvis, P.; Mildor, B. S.; Deschamps, A.; Bouin, M.; Perrot, J.

    2010-12-01

    The devastating 2010 Haiti earthquake ruptured only a relatively short segment (~50km) of the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault (EPGF) a 600km long strike-slip fault running onland and offshore from Jamaica to Dominican Republic, with apparently no major surface rupture in the epicentral area. Considering the general behavior of such strike-slip fault (i.e. North Anatolian fault, San Andreas fault), we can expect that, following the 2010 earthquake, other large earthquakes will occur in the near future on adjacent segments. To contribute to the multinational scientific effort for a better understanding of the rupture process and the stress relaxation of this earthquake, we organized the Haiti-OBS cruise of the R/V L'Atalante few weeks after the catastrophe (Feb.5 to Feb.15, 2010, from and to Pointe-a-Pitre, Guadeloupe). Our goal was 1) to deploy a temporary network of seismologic stations -21 OBS, Ocean Bottom Seismometer, and 4 onland stations- and 2) to survey the detailed sea-floor features in relation with the deformation pattern of the area (multibeam bathymetry and mud-penetrator). We show that the distribution pattern of the aftershocks as well as the compressive surface structures observed in the geology and onshore/offshore morphology of the area are consistent with a deformation model implying a major left-lateral component along the EPGF, and a strong reverse component. The January 12, 2010 mainshock has been shown as very complex. However, in the first order, the mainshock and the distribution of the aftershocks, better localized by our temporary network, can be explained by the interaction between the strike-slip EPGF system and a blind folds-and-thrusts system. Thus, the general geological setting shows a southern extension until the southern part of the Canal du Sud area of the well-known fold and thrust system of the Hispaniola main block.

  19. Nonparametric Combinatorial Sequence Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wauthier, Fabian L.; Jordan, Michael I.; Jojic, Nebojsa

    This work considers biological sequences that exhibit combinatorial structures in their composition: groups of positions of the aligned sequences are "linked" and covary as one unit across sequences. If multiple such groups exist, complex interactions can emerge between them. Sequences of this kind arise frequently in biology but methodologies for analyzing them are still being developed. This paper presents a nonparametric prior on sequences which allows combinatorial structures to emerge and which induces a posterior distribution over factorized sequence representations. We carry out experiments on three sequence datasets which indicate that combinatorial structures are indeed present and that combinatorial sequence models can more succinctly describe them than simpler mixture models. We conclude with an application to MHC binding prediction which highlights the utility of the posterior distribution induced by the prior. By integrating out the posterior our method compares favorably to leading binding predictors.

  20. Mechanical origin of aftershocks.

    PubMed

    Lippiello, E; Giacco, F; Marzocchi, W; Godano, C; de Arcangelis, L

    2015-01-01

    Aftershocks are the most striking evidence of earthquake interactions and the physical mechanisms at the origin of their occurrence are still intensively debated. Novel insights stem from recent results on the influence of the faulting style on the aftershock organisation in magnitude and time. Our study shows that the size of the aftershock zone depends on the fault geometry. We find that positive correlations among parameters controlling aftershock occurrence in time, energy and space are a stable feature of seismicity independently of magnitude range and geographic areas. We explain the ensemble of experimental findings by means of a description of the Earth Crust as an heterogeneous elastic medium coupled with a Maxwell viscoelastic asthenosphere. Our results show that heterogeneous stress distribution in an elastic layer combined with a coupling to a viscous flow are sufficient ingredients to describe the physics of aftershock triggering. PMID:26497720

  1. Mechanical origin of aftershocks.

    PubMed

    Lippiello, E; Giacco, F; Marzocchi, W; Godano, C; de Arcangelis, L

    2015-10-26

    Aftershocks are the most striking evidence of earthquake interactions and the physical mechanisms at the origin of their occurrence are still intensively debated. Novel insights stem from recent results on the influence of the faulting style on the aftershock organisation in magnitude and time. Our study shows that the size of the aftershock zone depends on the fault geometry. We find that positive correlations among parameters controlling aftershock occurrence in time, energy and space are a stable feature of seismicity independently of magnitude range and geographic areas. We explain the ensemble of experimental findings by means of a description of the Earth Crust as an heterogeneous elastic medium coupled with a Maxwell viscoelastic asthenosphere. Our results show that heterogeneous stress distribution in an elastic layer combined with a coupling to a viscous flow are sufficient ingredients to describe the physics of aftershock triggering.

  2. Mechanical origin of aftershocks

    PubMed Central

    Lippiello, E.; Giacco, F.; Marzocchi, W.; Godano, C.; de Arcangelis, L.

    2015-01-01

    Aftershocks are the most striking evidence of earthquake interactions and the physical mechanisms at the origin of their occurrence are still intensively debated. Novel insights stem from recent results on the influence of the faulting style on the aftershock organisation in magnitude and time. Our study shows that the size of the aftershock zone depends on the fault geometry. We find that positive correlations among parameters controlling aftershock occurrence in time, energy and space are a stable feature of seismicity independently of magnitude range and geographic areas. We explain the ensemble of experimental findings by means of a description of the Earth Crust as an heterogeneous elastic medium coupled with a Maxwell viscoelastic asthenosphere. Our results show that heterogeneous stress distribution in an elastic layer combined with a coupling to a viscous flow are sufficient ingredients to describe the physics of aftershock triggering. PMID:26497720

  3. Data sensitivity in a hybrid STEP/Coulomb model for aftershock forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steacy, S.; Jimenez Lloret, A.; Gerstenberger, M.

    2014-12-01

    Operational earthquake forecasting is rapidly becoming a 'hot topic' as civil protection authorities seek quantitative information on likely near future earthquake distributions during seismic crises. At present, most of the models in public domain are statistical and use information about past and present seismicity as well as b-value and Omori's law to forecast future rates. A limited number of researchers, however, are developing hybrid models which add spatial constraints from Coulomb stress modeling to existing statistical approaches. Steacy et al. (2013), for instance, recently tested a model that combines Coulomb stress patterns with the STEP (short-term earthquake probability) approach against seismicity observed during the 2010-2012 Canterbury earthquake sequence. They found that the new model performed at least as well as, and often better than, STEP when tested against retrospective data but that STEP was generally better in pseudo-prospective tests that involved data actually available within the first 10 days of each event of interest. They suggested that the major reason for this discrepancy was uncertainty in the slip models and, in particular, in the geometries of the faults involved in each complex major event. Here we test this hypothesis by developing a number of retrospective forecasts for the Landers earthquake using hypothetical slip distributions developed by Steacy et al. (2004) to investigate the sensitivity of Coulomb stress models to fault geometry and earthquake slip, and we also examine how the choice of receiver plane geometry affects the results. We find that the results are strongly sensitive to the slip models and moderately sensitive to the choice of receiver orientation. We further find that comparison of the stress fields (resulting from the slip models) with the location of events in the learning period provides advance information on whether or not a particular hybrid model will perform better than STEP.

  4. High-resolution relocation and mechanism of aftershocks of the 2007 Tocopilla (Chile) earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuenzalida, A.; Schurr, B.; Lancieri, M.; Sobiesiak, M.; Madariaga, R.

    2013-08-01

    We study the distribution of the aftershocks of Tocopilla Mw 7.7 earthquake of 2007 November 14 in northern Chile in detail. This earthquake broke the lower part of the seismogenic zone at the southern end of the Northern Chile gap, a region that had its last megathrust earthquake in 1877. The aftershocks of Tocopilla occurred in several steps: the first day they were located along the coast inside the co-seismic rupture zone. After the second day they extended ocean-wards near the Mejillones peninsula. Finally in December they concentrated in the South near the future rupture zone of the Michilla intermediate depth earthquake of 2007 December 16. The aftershock sequence was recorded by the permanent IPOC (Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory in Chile) network and the temporary task force network installed 2 weeks after the main event. A total of 1238 events were identified and the seismic arrival times were directly read from seismograms. Initially we located these events using a single event procedure and then we relocated them using the double-difference method and a cross-correlation technique to measure time differences for clusters of aftershocks. We tested a 1-D velocity model and a 2-D one that takes into account the presence of the subducted Nazca Plate. Relocation significantly reduced the width of the aftershock distribution: in the inland area, the plate interface imaged by the aftershocks is thinner than 2 km. The two velocity models give similar results for earthquakes under the coast and a larger difference for events closer to the trench. The surface imaged by the aftershocks had a length of 160 km. It extends from 30 to 50 km depth in the northern part of the rupture zone; and between 5 and 55 km depth near the Mejillones peninsula. We observed a change in the dip angle of the subduction interface from 18° to 24° at a depth of 30 km. We propose that this change in dip is closely associated with the upper limit of the rupture zone of the main

  5. P and S waves tomographic analysis of the area of El Asnam's 1980 ms 7.3 earthquake (Algeria) from its aftershock sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellalem, F.; Bounif, M. A.; Koulakov, I.

    2015-01-01

    We present the 3D seismic model of crustal structure and the distribution of seismicity in the El Asnam region (Algeria) where a strong earthquake (M7.3) occurred in 1980. We apply the local earthquake tomography inversion for the data of temporary networks which recorded the aftershocks of the 1980 event. The results of the tomography inversion have been rigorously tested using a number of different tests. The velocity anomalies from the inversion show pronounced low-velocity anomalies in the surface rupture zone associated with El Asnam fault, which are consistent with the finding of the previous studies (Philip and Meghraoui Tectonics 2:17-49, 1983), Ouyed et al. (Nature 292:26-31, 1981). Moreover, we have also reported the high velocities that exist at shallow crustal depths in the El Asnam zone. We have associated this feature to tectonic, geomorphological, and structural settings in the study area. Finally, we hope that the main features of the interpretation summarized in this article will be the basis for further integrated geophysical and tectonic analyses.

  6. A Jurassic Shock-Aftershock Earthquake Sequence Recorded by Small Clastic Pipes and Dikes within Dune Cross-Strata, Zion National Park, Utah

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loope, D. B.; Zlotnik, V. A.; Kettler, R. M.; Pederson, D. T.

    2012-12-01

    dune lee slope through a pipe, the erupted sand dried and was buried by climbing wind-ripple strata as the large dune continued to advance downwind. The mapped cluster recording eight distinct seismic events lies within thin-laminated sediment that was deposited by wind ripples during 1 m (~ 1 year) of southeastward dune migration. We conclude that the small pipes and dikes of our study sites are products of numerous >MM 5 earthquakes, some of which recurred at intervals of less than 2 months. We interpret one small cluster of pipes and dikes with well-defined upward terminations as a distinct shock-aftershock sequence. Because the largest modern earthquakes can produce surface liquefaction only up to about 175 km from their epicenters, the Jurassic epicenters must have been well within that distance. The tendency of modern plate boundaries to produce high-frequency aftershocks suggests that the epicenter for this Jurassic sequence lay to the southwest, within the plate boundary zone (not within continental rocks to the east). As eolian dunes steadily migrate over interdune surfaces underlain by water-saturated dune cross-strata, the thin, distinct laminae produced by the wind ripples that occupy dune toes can faithfully record high-frequency seismic events.

  7. Aftershocks driven by a high-pressure CO2 source at depth.

    PubMed

    Miller, Stephen A; Collettini, Cristiano; Chiaraluce, Lauro; Cocco, Massimo; Barchi, Massimiliano; Kaus, Boris J P

    2004-02-19

    In northern Italy in 1997, two earthquakes of magnitudes 5.7 and 6 (separated by nine hours) marked the beginning of a sequence that lasted more than 30 days, with thousands of aftershocks including four additional events with magnitudes between 5 and 6. This normal-faulting sequence is not well explained with models of elastic stress transfer, particularly the persistence of hanging-wall seismicity that included two events with magnitudes greater than 5. Here we show that this sequence may have been driven by a fluid pressure pulse generated from the coseismic release of a known deep source of trapped high-pressure carbon dioxide (CO2). We find a strong correlation between the high-pressure front and the aftershock hypocentres over a two-week period, using precise hypocentre locations and a simple model of nonlinear diffusion. The triggering amplitude (10-20 MPa) of the pressure pulse overwhelms the typical (0.1-0.2 MPa) range from stress changes in the usual stress triggering models. We propose that aftershocks of large earthquakes in such geologic environments may be driven by the coseismic release of trapped, high-pressure fluids propagating through damaged zones created by the mainshock. This may provide a link between earthquakes, aftershocks, crust/mantle degassing and earthquake-triggered large-scale fluid flow.

  8. Relation between aftershock parameters and geodetic slip models: Case study of the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule (Chile) and the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki (Japan) earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zakharova, Olga; Hainzl, Sebastian; Lange, Dietrich; Enescu, Bogdan

    2016-04-01

    The distribution of local stresses, which represents as well crustal heterogeneity, is the main factor for aftershock triggering. Though neither local stresses nor crustal heterogeneity are known in detail, some information of their distribution is implicitly represented by slip and coupling values on the mainshock fault interface. Taking these two concepts as the main assumptions, we perform a comprehensive analysis of the relation between aftershock characteristics and geodetic measurements on the mainshock fault interface. As a case study we select two megathrust events, the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule (Chile) and the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki (Japan), due to the availability of rich aftershock data as well as of geodetic inversion models. To investigate the dependency between these data sets we firstly estimated the aftershock parameter distribution, using a modified ETAS model, which allows to take into account the mainshock rupture extension. Secondly we calculate the correlation between aftershock parameters and coseismic/postseismic slip and interseismic coupling. We find: (1) aftershocks tend to occur in the areas of high coseismic slip gradient, afterslip and interseismic coupling; (2) aftershock seismic moment is released preferentially in regions of large coseismic slip, coseismic slip gradient and interseismically locked areas; (3) anomalous aftershock parameters occur in the areas of reactivated fault systems. Moreover, we show that modified ETAS model outperforms the classical one in the cases when the mainshock rupture extension cannot be neglected and represented as a point source. One of the main restriction in the presented analysis is related to the large uncertainties of the inversion models, which limit the significance of our results.

  9. Comparison of the non-proliferation event aftershocks with other Nevada Test Site events

    SciTech Connect

    Jarpe, S.; Goldstein, P.; Zucca, J.J.

    1994-04-01

    As part of a larger effort to develop technology for on-site inspection of ambiguous underground seismic events, we have been working to identify phenomenology of aftershock seismicity which would be useful for discriminating between nuclear explosions, chemical explosions, earthquakes or other seismic events. Phenomenology we have investigated includes; the spatial distribution of aftershocks, the number of aftershocks as a function of time after the main event, the size of the aftershocks, and waveform frequency content. Our major conclusions are: (1) Depending on local geologic conditions, aftershock production rate two weeks after zero time ranges from 1 to 100 per day. (2) Aftershocks of concentrated chemical explosions such as the NPE are indistinguishable from aftershocks of nuclear explosions. (3) Earthquake and explosion aftershock sequences may be differentiated on the basis of depth, magnitude, and in some cases, frequency content of seismic signals.

  10. GIS-based 3D visualization of the Mw 7.7, 2007, Tocopilla aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eggert, S.; Sobiesiak, M.; Altenbrunn, K.

    2009-12-01

    The November 14, 2007 Mw 7.7 earthquake nucleated on the west coast of northern Chile about 40 km east of the city of Tocopilla. It took place in the southern part of a large seismic gap, the Iquique subduction zone segment which is supposed to be at the end of its seismic cycle. The Tocopilla fault plane appears to be the northern continuation of the Mw 8.0, 1995 Antofagasta earthquake. We present a complex 3D model of the rupture area including first hypocenter localizations of aftershocks following the event. The data was recorded during a mission of the German Task Force for Earthquakes after the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake. The seismic stations were recording the aftershocks from November 2007 until May 2008. In general, subduction zones have a complex structure where most of the volumes examined are characterized by strong variations in physical and material parameters. Therefore, 3D representation of the geophysical and geological conditions to be found are of great importance to understand such a subduction environment. We start with a two-dimensional visualization of the geological and geophysical setting. In a second step, we use GIS as a three-dimensional modeling tool which gives us the possibility to visualize the complex geophysical processes. One can easily add and delete data and focus on the information one needs. This allows us to investigate the aftershock distribution along the subducting slab and identify clear structures and clusters within the data set. Furthermore we combine the 2007 Tocopilla data set with the 1995 Antofagasta aftershocks which provides a new, three-dimensional insight into the segment boundary of these two events. Analyzing the aftershock sequence with a GIS-based model will not only help to visualize the setting but also be the base for various calculations and further explorations of the complex structures. Aftershocks following the 1995 Antofagasta earthquake and the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake

  11. Scale-free networks of earthquakes and aftershocks.

    PubMed

    Baiesi, Marco; Paczuski, Maya

    2004-06-01

    We propose a metric to quantify correlations between earthquakes. The metric consists of a product involving the time interval and spatial distance between two events, as well as the magnitude of the first one. According to this metric, events typically are strongly correlated to only one or a few preceding ones. Thus a classification of events as foreshocks, main shocks, or aftershocks emerges automatically without imposing predetermined space-time windows. In the simplest network construction, each earthquake receives an incoming link from its most correlated predecessor. The number of aftershocks for any event, identified by its outgoing links, is found to be scale free with exponent gamma=2.0(1). The original Omori law with p=1 emerges as a robust feature of seismicity, holding up to years even for aftershock sequences initiated by intermediate magnitude events. The broad distribution of distances between earthquakes and their linked aftershocks suggests that aftershock collection with fixed space windows is not appropriate.

  12. Ranking and Sequencing Model

    2009-08-13

    This database application (commonly called the Supermodel) provides a repository for managing critical facility/project information, allows the user to subjectively an objectively assess key criteria , quantify project risks, develop ROM cost estimates, determine facility/project end states, ultimately performing risk-based modeling to rank facilities/project based on risk, sequencing project schedules and provides an optimized recommended sequencing/scheduling of these projects which maximize the S&M cost savings to perform closure projects which benefit all stakeholders.

  13. Some statistical features of the aftershock temporal behavior after the M7.4 Izmit earthquake of august 17, 1999 in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gospodinov, D.; Fajtin, H.; Rangelov, B.; Marekova, E.

    2009-04-01

    An earthquake of magnitude Mw=7.4 struck 8 km. southeast of Izmit, Turkey at 3:02 AM local time on August 17, 1999. The earthquake occurred on one of the world's longest and best studied strike-slip (horizontal motion) faults - the east-west trending North Anatolian fault. Seismologists are not able to predict the timing and sizes of individual aftershocks but stochastic modeling allows determinationof probabilities for aftershocks and larger mainshocks duringintervals following the mainshock. The most widely applied stochastic model to depict aftershocks temporal distribution is the non- homogenous Poisson process with a decaying intensity, which follows the Modified Omori Formula (MOF) (Utsu, 1961). A more complex model, considering the triggering potential of each aftershock was developed by Ogata (1988) and it was named Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. Gospodinov and Rotondi (2006) elaborated a Restricted Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (RETAS) model. The latter follows the general idea that only aftershocks stronger than some cut-off magnitude possess the capability to induce secondary aftershock activity. In this work we shall consider the Restricted Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (RETAS) model, for which the conditional intensity function turns out to be ‘ K0eα(Mi-M0)- λ (t|Ht) = + (t- ti + c)p ti < t Mi ≥ Mth (1) Here the summation occurs for all aftershocks with magnitude bigger than or equal to Mth, which took place before time. Leaving Mth to take all possible values, one can examine all RETAS model versions between the MOF and the ETAS model on the basis of the Akaike Information Criterion AIC (Akaike, 1974) AIC = - 2max log L+ 2k (2) where k is the number of parameters used in the model and logL is the logarithm of the likelihood function. Then for the model providing the best fit, we choose the one with the smallest AIC value. The purpose of this paper is to verify versions of the RETAS model (including the MOF and the

  14. Aftershock production rate of driven viscoelastic interfaces.

    PubMed

    Jagla, E A

    2014-10-01

    We study analytically and by numerical simulations the statistics of the aftershocks generated after large avalanches in models of interface depinning that include viscoelastic relaxation effects. We find in all the analyzed cases that the decay law of aftershocks with time can be understood by considering the typical roughness of the interface and its evolution due to relaxation. In models where there is a single viscoelastic relaxation time there is an exponential decay of the number of aftershocks with time. In models in which viscoelastic relaxation is wave-vector dependent we typically find a power-law dependence of the decay rate that is compatible with the Omori law. The factors that determine the value of the decay exponent are analyzed.

  15. Some facts about aftershocks to large earthquakes in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Reasenberg, Paul A.

    1996-01-01

    Earthquakes occur in clusters. After one earthquake happens, we usually see others at nearby (or identical) locations. To talk about this phenomenon, seismologists coined three terms foreshock , mainshock , and aftershock. In any cluster of earthquakes, the one with the largest magnitude is called the mainshock; earthquakes that occur before the mainshock are called foreshocks while those that occur after the mainshock are called aftershocks. A mainshock will be redefined as a foreshock if a subsequent event in the cluster has a larger magnitude. Aftershock sequences follow predictable patterns. That is, a sequence of aftershocks follows certain global patterns as a group, but the individual earthquakes comprising the group are random and unpredictable. This relationship between the pattern of a group and the randomness (stochastic nature) of the individuals has a close parallel in actuarial statistics. We can describe the pattern that aftershock sequences tend to follow with well-constrained equations. However, we must keep in mind that the actual aftershocks are only probabilistically described by these equations. Once the parameters in these equations have been estimated, we can determine the probability of aftershocks occurring in various space, time and magnitude ranges as described below. Clustering of earthquakes usually occurs near the location of the mainshock. The stress on the mainshock's fault changes drastically during the mainshock and that fault produces most of the aftershocks. This causes a change in the regional stress, the size of which decreases rapidly with distance from the mainshock. Sometimes the change in stress caused by the mainshock is great enough to trigger aftershocks on other, nearby faults. While there is no hard "cutoff" distance beyond which an earthquake is totally incapable of triggering an aftershock, the vast majority of aftershocks are located close to the mainshock. As a rule of thumb, we consider earthquakes to be

  16. Early aftershock decay rate of the M6 Parkfield earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Z.; Vidale, J. E.

    2004-12-01

    Mainshock rupture is typically followed by its aftershocks that diminish in rate approximately as the reciprocal of the elapse time. However, it is notoriously difficult to observe aftershock activity in the noisy aftermath of larger earthquakes. Many aftershocks were missed in the existing seismicity catalogs in the initial few minutes (Kagan, 2004). Yet this period holds valuable information about the transition from mainshock rupture to sporadic aftershocks, and the friction laws that control earthquakes. The Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault is one of most densely seismometered places in the world. Many near-fault, non-clipped and continuous recordings of the M6 Parkfield earthquake and its aftermath have been recovered, providing an excellent opportunity for us to study the aftershock decay rates in the first few hundred seconds after the mainshock. We have so far analyzed recordings from station PKD and 13 stations in the Parkfield High Resolution Seismic Network. By scrutinizing the high-frequency signal, we are able to distinguish mainshock coda from early aftershocks. We find up to 10 times more aftershocks in the first 1000 s than in the USGS NCSN catalog. More than 30 events are detected in the first 200 s after the mainshock. None of these events are in the USGS NCSN catalog. Preliminary results suggest a strong deficit of aftershocks in the first 100 s after the mainshock relative to a 1/t aftershock rate decay. This pattern is consistent with a lack of seismicity in the first 120 s following the 10/31/2001 M5.1 Anza earthquake (Kilb et al., 2004), and our study of early aftershock rates using data from HiNet array in Japan (Vidale et al., 2004). Our observations will allow us to test the prediction of such an interval in rate-and-state friction models prior to the onset of the 1/t aftershock decay rate (Dieterich, 1994).

  17. The Mw 5.8 Virginia Earthquake of August 23, 2011 and its Aftershocks: A Shallow High Stress Drop Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellsworth, W. L.; Imanishi, K.; Luetgert, J. H.; Kruger, J.; Hamilton, J.

    2011-12-01

    We analyze the hypocentral distribution and source parameters of the aftershocks of the Virginia Earthquake of August 23, 2011 using a temporary array of telemetered instruments deployed within 20 km of the main shock. Our data come from four USGS NetQuakes accelerometers and seven IRIS/PASSCAL seismometers that were established within a few days of the earthquake. Aftershock seismograms at these near-source stations are characterized by impulsive, high-frequency P and S phases at most sites. In addition, we use the five closest permanent stations (60 - 310 km distance) to analyze the main shock. Hypocenters, crustal velocity model and station corrections were determined using the program VELEST (Kissling, et al, 1994). The aftershocks define a 10-km-long, N 30 degree E striking, 45 degree ESE dipping fault. This fault plane agrees well with the USGS moment tensor solutions for the main shock. Aftershock depths range from 2.5 to 8 km, placing the sequence in the Cambrian metamorphic rocks of the Eastern Piedmont thrust sheet. We relocated the main shock relative to a well-located Mw 3.5 aftershock using the P-wave arrival times at the five permanent stations. The main shock epicenter lies in the middle of the aftershock zone. Its focal depth, although not well constrained, is similar to the aftershocks. A crustal-scale seismic reflection profile was acquired by the USGS in 1981 along I-64 just 4 km southwest of the nearest aftershocks. This profile runs nearly parallel to the dip direction of the aftershock zone and has been interpreted to contain many ESE-dipping reverse faults in the allochthonous upper crust (Harris et al., 1986; Pratt, et al., 1988). When projected onto the reflection profile the aftershocks locate within a relatively non-reflective zone bounded above and below by prominent bands of more shallowly dipping reflectors reported by Pratt et al. (1988) raising the question whether or not the earthquake reactivated a pre-existing fault. Seismic

  18. The Prediction of Spatial Aftershock Probabilities (PRESAP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCloskey, J.

    2003-12-01

    extent to which this is scientifically feasible in terms of our understanding of the physical phenomena which control the variation of seismicity following a large event due to stress redistribution and practically possible given present limitations on data availability, data quality and computational or data transfer speeds. The project is divided into a number of elements designed to reflect the temporal sequence of tasks that must be undertaken for the prediction of aftershock hazard. These tasks include determining a time-indexed sequence of slip distributions for both real and synthetic events, calculating a suite of time-indexed stress perturbations and quantitatively comprising predicted and observed aftershock distributions, and developing techniques for predicting likely strong ground motion from the predicted spatial distribution of aftershocks.

  19. Geodetic model of the 2015 April 25 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal Earthquake and Mw 7.3 aftershock estimated from InSAR and GPS data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Guangcai; Li, Zhiwei; Shan, Xinjian; Zhang, Lei; Zhang, Guohong; Zhu, Jianjun

    2015-11-01

    We map the complete surface deformation of 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake and its Mw 7.3 aftershock with two parallel ALOS2 descending ScanSAR paths' and two ascending Stripmap paths' images. The coseismic fault-slip model from a combined inversion of InSAR and GPS data reveals that this event is a reverse fault motion, with a slight right-lateral strike-slip component. The maximum thrust-slip and right-lateral strike-slip values are 5.7 and 1.2 m, respectively, located at a depth of 7-15 km, southeast to the epicentre. The total seismic moment 7.55 × 1020 Nm, corresponding to a moment magnitude Mw 7.89, is similar to the seismological estimates. Fault slips of both the main shock and the largest aftershock are absent from the upper thrust shallower than 7 km, indicating that there is a locking lower edge of Himalayan Main Frontal Thrust and future seismic disaster is not unexpected in this area. We also find that the energy released in this earthquake is much less than the accumulated moment deficit over the past seven centuries estimated in previous studies, so the region surrounding Kathmandu is still under the threaten of seismic hazards.

  20. Asymmetric Earthquake Aftershock Distributions Resulting from Timing Within the Seismic Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire, J. J.; Collins, J. A.; Boettcher, M. S.; Roland, E. C.

    2010-12-01

    Aftershock sequences are a well documented result of changes in the crustal stress-field resulting from nearby large earthquakes, yet there is typically little (or no) constraint on the initial stress level of the “receiver fault” where the triggered aftershock occurs. Thus, many popular physical and stochastic models of aftershock triggering do not account for the absolute stress-level on a receiver fault, and the importance of this stress level (relative to a fault’s failure threshold) is not easily studied. In 2008 we recorded a series of westward propagating ruptures that marked the end of the most recent seismic cycle on the Gofar transform fault using an array of Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBSs). The end of the 2002-2008 seismic cycle on the Gofar fault included a series of 4 major rupture events (either M6 earthquakes or large seismic swarms) that propagated ~90 km along the strike of the fault from east to west over the course of 1.5 years. Our OBS dataset covered the last 3 of these events and recorded over 200,000 microearthquakes. Each of the 3 rupture events produced a spatially asymmetric aftershock distribution. On the eastern side of each slipping zone, where the stress is lower because the fault has already ruptured in its cycle-ending event, the large rupture events do not change the seismicity-rate. In contrast, on the western side, where stress is high because the area is nearing the end of it’s seismic cycle, there is a clear increase in seismicity rate (i.e. aftershocks). This asymmetry demonstrates the importance of absolute stress-levels in earthquake triggering. This observation contrasts with the Rate-State seismicity model (Dieterich, 1994), which predicts that seismicity-rate increases will depend only on stressing-rate and the magnitude of a static stress change. Since static stress changes from large ruptures are fairly symmetric along a geometrically simple strike slip fault, like Gofar, the observed aftershock asymmetry

  1. Adversary Sequence Interruption Model

    1985-11-15

    PC EASI is an IBM personal computer or PC-compatible version of an analytical technique for measuring the effectiveness of physical protection systems. PC EASI utilizes a methodology called Estimate of Adversary Sequence Interruption (EASI) which evaluates the probability of interruption (PI) for a given sequence of adversary tasks. Probability of interruption is defined as the probability that the response force will arrive before the adversary force has completed its task. The EASI methodology is amore » probabilistic approach that analytically evaluates basic functions of the physical security system (detection, assessment, communications, and delay) with respect to response time along a single adversary path. It is important that the most critical scenarios for each target be identified to ensure that vulnerabilities have not been overlooked. If the facility is not overly complex, this can be accomplished by examining all paths. If the facility is complex, a global model such as Safeguards Automated Facility Evaluation (SAFE) may be used to identify the most vulnerable paths. PC EASI is menu-driven with screen forms for entering and editing the basic scenarios. In addition to evaluating PI for the basic scenario, the sensitivities of many of the parameters chosen in the scenario can be analyzed. These sensitivities provide information to aid the analyst in determining the tradeoffs for reducing the probability of interruption. PC EASI runs under the Micro Data Base Systems'' proprietary database management system Knowledgeman. KMAN provides the user environment and file management for the specified basic scenarios, and KGRAPH the graphical output of the sensitivity calculations. This software is not included. Due to errors in release 2 of KMAN, PC EASI will not execute properly; release 1.07 of KMAN is required.« less

  2. Foreshocks and aftershocks of the Great 1857 California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

    1999-01-01

    The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults anywhere in the world, yet we know little about many aspects of its behavior before, during, and after large earthquakes. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1857 M 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on the central and southern segments of the fault. We began by searching archived first-hand accounts from 1857 through 1862, by grouping felt reports temporally, and by assigning modified Mercalli intensities to each site. We then used a modified form of the grid-search algorithm of Bakum and Wentworth, derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes, to find the location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities for each of the largest events. The result confirms a conclusion of Sieh that at least two foreshocks ('dawn' and 'sunrise') located on or near the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault preceded the mainshock. We estimate their magnitudes to be M ~ 6.1 and M ~ 5.6, respectively. The aftershock rate was below average but within one standard deviation of the number of aftershocks expected based on statistics of modern southern California mainshock-aftershock sequences. The aftershocks included two significant events during the first eight days of the sequence, with magnitudes M ~ 6.25 and M ~ 6.7, near the southern half of the rupture; later aftershocks included a M ~ 6 event near San Bernardino in December 1858 and a M ~ 6.3 event near the Parkfield segment in April 1860. From earthquake logs at Fort Tejon, we conclude that the aftershock sequence lasted a minimum of 3.75 years.

  3. The aftershock processes of strong earthquakes in the Western Caucasus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baranov, S. V.; Gabsatarova, I. P.

    2015-05-01

    The aftershock processes of the four strong earthquakes that occurred in the Western Caucasus from 1991 to June 2013 are considered. The main shocks of these earthquakes include the first Racha earthquake (April 29, 1991, Ms = 6.9); second Racha earthquake (June 15, 1991, Ms = 6.2); Oni earthquake (September 7, 2009, Ms = 5.8); and East Black Sea earthquake (December 23, 2012, Ms = 5.6). Based on the simulations with the LPL relaxation model and the ETAS model of triggered seismicity, the differences in the properties of the aftershock processes and the characteristics of the fault zones accommodating the main shocks are revealed. The nonrelaxation character of the aftershocks from the East Black Sea earthquake is established. It is hypothesized and validated that this is a result of the violation of the fluid-dynamic equilibrium in the fault zone due to the destruction of the gas hydrate layer by the main shock and strong aftershocks.

  4. Spatial correlation of aftershock locations and on-fault main shock properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woessner, J.; Schorlemmer, D.; Wiemer, S.; Mai, P. M.

    2006-08-01

    We quantify the correlation between spatial patterns of aftershock hypocenter locations and the distribution of coseismic slip and stress drop on a main shock fault plane using two nonstandard statistical tests. Test T1 evaluates if aftershock hypocenters are located in low-slip regions (hypothesis H1), test T2 evaluates if aftershock hypocenters occur in regions of increased shear stress (hypothesis H2). In the tests, we seek to reject the null hypotheses H0: Aftershock hypocenters are not correlated with (1) low-slip regions or (2) regions of increased shear stress, respectively. We tested the hypotheses on four strike-slip events for which multiple earthquake catalogs and multiple finite fault source models of varying accuracy exist. Because we want to retain earthquake clustering as the fundamental feature of aftershock seismicity, we generate slip distributions using a random spatial field model and derive the stress drop distributions instead of generating seismicity catalogs. We account for uncertainties in the aftershock locations by simulating them within their location error bounds. Our findings imply that aftershocks are preferentially located in regions of low-slip (u ≤ ?umax) and of increased shear stress (Δσ < 0). In particular, the correlation is more significant for relocated than for general network aftershock catalogs. However, the results show that stress drop patterns provide less information content on aftershock locations. This implies that static shear stress change of the main shock may not be the governing process for aftershock genesis.

  5. A Fluid-driven Earthquake Cycle, Omori's Law, and Fluid-driven Aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, S. A.

    2015-12-01

    Few models exist that predict the Omori's Law of aftershock rate decay, with rate-state friction the only physically-based model. ETAS is a probabilistic model of cascading failures, and is sometimes used to infer rate-state frictional properties. However, the (perhaps dominant) role of fluids in the earthquake process is being increasingly realised, so a fluid-based physical model for Omori's Law should be available. In this talk, I present an hypothesis for a fluid-driven earthquake cycle where dehydration and decarbonization at depth provides continuous sources of buoyant high pressure fluids that must eventually make their way back to the surface. The natural pathway for fluid escape is along plate boundaries, where in the ductile regime high pressure fluids likely play an integral role in episodic tremor and slow slip earthquakes. At shallower levels, high pressure fluids pool at the base of seismogenic zones, with the reservoir expanding in scale through the earthquake cycle. Late in the cycle, these fluids can invade and degrade the strength of the brittle crust and contribute to earthquake nucleation. The mainshock opens permeable networks that provide escape pathways for high pressure fluids and generate aftershocks along these flow paths, while creating new pathways by the aftershocks themselves. Thermally activated precipitation then seals up these pathways, returning the system to a low-permeability environment and effective seal during the subsequent tectonic stress buildup. I find that the multiplicative effect of an exponential dependence of permeability on the effective normal stress coupled with an Arrhenius-type, thermally activated exponential reduction in permeability results in Omori's Law. I simulate this scenario using a very simple model that combines non-linear diffusion and a step-wise increase in permeability when a Mohr Coulomb failure condition is met, and allow permeability to decrease as an exponential function in time. I show very

  6. Decay of aftershock density with distance indicates triggering by dynamic stress.

    PubMed

    Felzer, K R; Brodsky, E E

    2006-06-01

    The majority of earthquakes are aftershocks, yet aftershock physics is not well understood. Many studies suggest that static stress changes trigger aftershocks, but recent work suggests that shaking (dynamic stresses) may also play a role. Here we measure the decay of aftershocks as a function of distance from magnitude 2-6 mainshocks in order to clarify the aftershock triggering process. We find that for short times after the mainshock, when low background seismicity rates allow for good aftershock detection, the decay is well fitted by a single inverse power law over distances of 0.2-50 km. The consistency of the trend indicates that the same triggering mechanism is working over the entire range. As static stress changes at the more distant aftershocks are negligible, this suggests that dynamic stresses may be triggering all of these aftershocks. We infer that the observed aftershock density is consistent with the probability of triggering aftershocks being nearly proportional to seismic wave amplitude. The data are not fitted well by models that combine static stress change with the evolution of frictionally locked faults.

  7. Decay of aftershock density with distance indicates triggering by dynamic stress

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Felzer, K.R.; Brodsky, E.E.

    2006-01-01

    The majority of earthquakes are aftershocks, yet aftershock physics is not well understood. Many studies suggest that static stress changes trigger aftershocks, but recent work suggests that shaking (dynamic stresses) may also play a role. Here we measure the decay of aftershocks as a function of distance from magnitude 2-6 mainshocks in order to clarify the aftershock triggering process. We find that for short times after the mainshock, when low background seismicity rates allow for good aftershock detection, the decay is well fitted by a single inverse power law over distances of 0.2-50 km. The consistency of the trend indicates that the same triggering mechanism is working over the entire range. As static stress changes at the more distant aftershocks are negligible, this suggests that dynamic stresses may be triggering all of these aftershocks. We infer that the observed aftershock density is consistent with the probability of triggering aftershocks being nearly proportional to seismic wave amplitude. The data are not fitted well by models that combine static stress change with the evolution of frictionally locked faults. ?? 2006 Nature Publishing Group.

  8. The global aftershock zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, Thomas E.; Margaret Segou,; Warner Marzocchi,

    2014-01-01

    The aftershock zone of each large (M ≥ 7) earthquake extends throughout the shallows of planet Earth. Most aftershocks cluster near the mainshock rupture, but earthquakes send out shivers in the form of seismic waves, and these temporary distortions are large enough to trigger other earthquakes at global range. The aftershocks that happen at great distance from their mainshock are often superposed onto already seismically active regions, making them difficult to detect and understand. From a hazard perspective we are concerned that this dynamic process might encourage other high magnitude earthquakes, and wonder if a global alarm state is warranted after every large mainshock. From an earthquake process perspective we are curious about the physics of earthquake triggering across the magnitude spectrum. In this review we build upon past studies that examined the combined global response to mainshocks. Such compilations demonstrate significant rate increases during, and immediately after (~ 45 min) M > 7.0 mainshocks in all tectonic settings and ranges. However, it is difficult to find strong evidence for M > 5 rate increases during the passage of surface waves in combined global catalogs. On the other hand, recently published studies of individual large mainshocks associate M > 5 triggering at global range that is delayed by hours to days after surface wave arrivals. The longer the delay between mainshock and global aftershock, the more difficult it is to establish causation. To address these questions, we review the response to 260 M ≥ 7.0 shallow (Z ≤ 50 km) mainshocks in 21 global regions with local seismograph networks. In this way we can examine the detailed temporal and spatial response, or lack thereof, during passing seismic waves, and over the 24 h period after their passing. We see an array of responses that can involve immediate and widespread seismicity outbreaks, delayed and localized earthquake clusters, to no response at all. About 50% of the

  9. Postseismic relaxation and aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.; Yu, S.-B.

    2007-01-01

    Perfettini et al. (2005) suggested that the temporal dependence of surface displacements u(t) measured in the epicentral area following an earthquake is related to N(t), the cumulative number of aftershocks, by the equation u(t) = a + bt + cN(t) + d(1 - e-??t), where a, b, c, d, and ?? are constants chosen to fit the data and t is the postearthquake time. N(t) appears in the expression for u(t) because both the aftershocks and a portion of u(t) are thought to be driven by the same source, postseismic fault creep at subseismogenic depths on the downdip extension of the coseismic rupture. We show that this equation with the actually observed N(t) fits the postseismic displacements recorded on several baselines following each of five earthquakes: 1999 M7.6 Chi-Chi (Taiwan), 1999 M7.1 Hector Mine (southern California), 2002 M7.9 Denali (central Alaska), 2003 M6.5 San Simeon (central California), and 2004 M6.0 Parkfield (central California) earthquakes. Although there are plausible physical interpretations for each of the terms in the expression for u(t), the large number of adjustable constants (a, b, c, d, and ??) involved in fitting the rather simple postseismic displacements diminishes the significance of the fit. Because the observed N(t) is well fit by the modified Omori's law, fault creep at depth presumably exhibits the same temporal dependence. That dependence could be explained if the rheology of the fault downdip from the coseismic rupture is consistent with ordinary transient creep. Montesi (2004) demonstrated that power law creep across a shear zone at depth would also produce that temporal signal.

  10. The 3-D aftershock distribution of three recent M5~5.5 earthquakes in the Anza region,California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Q.; Wdowinski, S.; Lin, G.

    2011-12-01

    The San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) exhibits the highest level of seismicity compared to other regions in southern California. On average, it produces four earthquakes per day, most of them at depth of 10-17 km. Over the past decade, an increasing seismic activity occurred in the Anza region, which included three M5~5.5 events and their aftershock sequences. These events occurred in 2001, 2005, and 2010. In this research we map the 3-D distribution of these three events to evaluate their rupture geometry and better understand the unusual deep seismic pattern along the SJFZ, which was termed "deep creep" (Wdowinski, 2009). We relocated 97,562 events from 1981 to 2011 in Anza region by applying the Source-Specific Station Term (SSST) method (Lin et al., 2006) and used an accurate 1-D velocity model derived from 3-D model of Lin et al (2007) and used In order to separate the aftershock sequence from background seismicity, we characterized each of the three aftershock sequences using Omori's law. Preliminary results show that all three sequences had a similar geometry of deep elongated aftershock distribution. Most aftershocks occurred at depth of 10-17 km and extended over a 70 km long segments of the SJFZ, centered at the mainshock hypocenters. A comparative study of other M5~5.5 mainshocks and their aftershock sequences in southern California reveals very different geometrical pattern, suggesting that the three Anza M5~5.5 events are unique and can be indicative of "deep creep" deformation processes. Reference 1.Lin, G.and Shearer,P.M.,2006, The COMPLOC earthquake location package,Seism. Res. Lett.77, pp.440-444. 2.Lin, G. and Shearer, P.M., Hauksson, E., and Thurber C.H.,2007, A three-dimensional crustal seismic velocity model for southern California from a composite event method,J. Geophys.Res.112, B12306, doi: 10.1029/ 2007JB004977. 3.Wdowinski, S. ,2009, Deep creep as a cause for the excess seismicity along the San Jacinto fault, Nat. Geosci.,doi:10.1038/NGEO684.

  11. A mechanism of aftershock generation based on progressive material softening

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dyskin, Arcady; Pasternak, Elena; Bunger, Andrew; Kear, James

    2015-04-01

    Observations of aftershocks after major seismic events show that the rate of aftershock generation reduces according to the generalised Omori's law. This law reproduces itself at a variety of scales starting from the scales of the earthquakes to the laboratory scale. Furthermore, the Omori's law holds for different types of fracture event from shear fracture propagation over the faults to failure in compression to failure in tension. In particular our tests show that the Omori's law describes the aftershocks in crystalline rocks in a laboratory model of hydraulic fracture and after bending failure of beams. We propose a new universal mechanism of aftershock generation that reproduces the Omori's law. We firstly note that it is not the residual stress, as conventionally assumed, but the residual strain that is created by the preceding fracture process. The aftershocks are created by the residual stress that is related to the residual strain through elastic moduli. The accumulation of the aftershock-related microcracks reduces the elastic moduli and thus reduces the residual stress. This overall reduction of the residual stress with the number of aftershocks is the reason for the rate reduction in aftershock generation. Naturally this process might be accompanied by the reduction in wave velocities, albeit, as we show, the reduction is rather low. The effect the accumulated microcracks have on the moduli considerably depends on the microcrack distribution over both positions and orientations. We found that (a) if the microcracks have isotropic distribution over orientations the classical Omori's law is reproduced; (b) if the microcracks are shear and parallel to each other but randomly situated in space the generalised Omori's law is reproduced with the exponent p<1; (c) if the microcracks are represented by sliding zones distributed over a fault, the generalised Omori's law is reproduced with the exponent p>1. The main feature of the latter case is the existence of

  12. Coseismic deformation fields and a fault slip model for the Mw7.8 mainshock and Mw7.3 aftershock of the Gorkha-Nepal 2015 earthquake derived from Sentinel-1A SAR interferometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuo, Ronghu; Qu, Chunyan; Shan, XinJian; Zhang, Guohong; Song, Xiaogang

    2016-08-01

    Coseismic deformation fields caused by the moment magnitude (Mw)7.8 mainshock and Mw7.3 aftershock of the 2015 Gorkha-Nepal earthquake are obtained by analyzing Sentinel-1A/IW ascending and descending interferometry data. Results show that the deformation field associated with the Mw7.8 mainshock roughly resembles a prolate ellipse, extending from the epicenter about 20° east by south. The main region of deformation is about 160 km by 110 km, comprising a large southern area of uplift, and a small northern area of subsidence. Assuming that rupture occurred in a homogeneous elastic half-space, the coseismic fault slip models of the mainshock and aftershock are inverted based on a shallow dip fault constrained by the three data sets, Sentinel-1A/IW descending data, ascending data, and ALOS-2 descending data, separately or in combination. Mainshock slip distributions generated from all three data sets are similar, and inversion constrained by all three in combination reveal a comprehensive fault slip model. Indeed, coseismic slip is mainly distributed within a narrow 40 km zone to the north of the Main Frontal Trust (MFT), and at 6-15 km subsurface depth. In addition, the maximum slip in this event was about 5.1 m, the Mw7.8 mainshock ruptured the deep part of the seismogenic zone, while the region between the southern boundary of the rupture area and the MFT remained locked. Therefore, a considerable earthquake risk remains to the south of Kathmandu. The inverted coseismic slip of the Mw7.3 aftershock was concentrated in a small area, close to, and southeast of the epicenter, with maximum displacement of about 3 m. Finally, because there is no overlap between the two slip areas of the mainshock and aftershock, the gap between them, about 15 km in length, has additional potential to generate future earthquakes.

  13. Magnitude estimates of two large aftershocks of the 16 December 1811 New Madrid earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.; Martin, S.

    2002-01-01

    The three principal New Madrid mainshocks of 1811-1812 were followed by extensive aftershock sequences that included numerous felt events. Although no instrumental data are available for either the mainshocks or the aftershocks, available historical accounts do provide information that can be used to estimate magnitudes and locations for the large events. In this article we investigate two of the largest aftershocks: one near dawn following the first mainshock on 16 December 1811, and one near midday on 17 December 1811. We reinterpret original felt reports to obtain a set of 48 and 20 modified Mercalli intensity values of the two aftershocks, respectively. For the dawn aftershock, we infer a Mw of approximately 7.0 based on a comparison of its intensities with those of the smallest New Madrid mainshock. Based on a detailed account that appears to describe near-field ground motions, we further propose a new fault rupture scenario for the dawn aftershock. We suggest that the aftershock had a thrust mechanism and occurred on a southeastern limb of the Reelfoot fault. For the 17 December 1811 aftershock, we infer a Mw of approximately 6.1 ?? 0.2. This value is determined using the method of Bakun et al. (2002), which is based on a new calibration of intensity versus distance for earthquakes in central and eastern North America. The location of this event is not well constrained, but the available accounts suggest an epicenter beyond the southern end of the New Madrid Seismic Zone.

  14. Stress shadows of the 2011 Mw=9.0 Tohoku-oki, Japan, earthquake: Suppressed aftershocks of the 2008 Mw=6.6 Iwate-Miyagi inland earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki, Y.; Toda, S.

    2013-12-01

    Numerous papers of stress triggering have been published since 1990s. Among them, only a few studies have evidently shown that seismicity shut down or suppression associated with static Coulomb stress decrease (hereinafter 'stress shadow'). The reason only fewer reports exist is its restrictive conditions to detect stress shadow. To prove statistical significance, the following conditions are satisfied: (i) high seismicity rate before a disturbance, (ii) long elapsed time required since the disturbance, (iii) negative Coulomb stress on most of the pre-existing faults in the area. A preceding aftershocks before the disturbance is often used to satisfy the condition (i) (e.g. Toda and Stein, 2003). But one must strictly consider a temporal decay of aftershocks to fairly compare the post-disturbance rate with the pre-disturbance rate. To calibrate such potential bias, we employ the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, 1988) which can simulate the temporal decay and effect of secondary aftershocks. Here, we use the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) earthquake catalog from 2000 to June 2013 (depth≤25km) and examine any deviation of observed rate from theoretical seismicity predicted by the ETAS model after the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. We here focus on aftershock areas of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi inland earthquake (Mw 6.6), the 2003 North-Miyagi earthquake (Mw 6.0) and the 2010 Fukushima earthquake (Mw 5.5), all of which are mostly supposed to satisfy all the conditions. To detect seismicity rate change between before and after a stress perturbation, one must estimate the minimum magnitude of completeness (Mc) throughout the testing period. Based on a report of JMA (2012) and our own magnitude-frequency plots, we set Mc=3.0 in the Iwate-Miyagi inland earthquake and the North-Miyagi earthquake, and Mc=2.0 in the Fukushima earthquake regions. To rigorously define their aftershock zones, we calculate seismicity rate before (Rb) and after (Ra) their own

  15. Preparation phase and consequences of a large earthquake: insights from foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake, Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cesca, Simone; Grigoli, Francesco; Heimann, Sebastian; Dahm, Torsten

    2015-04-01

    The April 1, 2014, Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake in Northern Chile, was preceded by an anomalous, extensive preparation phase. The precursor seismicity at the ruptured slab segment was observed sporadically several months before the main shock, with a significant increment in seismicity rates and observed magnitudes in the last three weeks before the main shock. The large dataset of regional recordings helped us to investigate the role of such precursor activity, comparing foreshock and aftershock seismicity to test models of rupture preparation and models of strain and stress rotation during an earthquake. We used full waveforms techniques to locate events, map the seismicity rate, derive source parameters, and assess spatiotemporal stress changes. Results indicate that the spatial distributions of foreshocks delineated the shallower part of the rupture areas of the main shock and its largest aftershock, and is well matching the spatial extension of the aftershocks. During the foreshock sequence, seismicity spatially is mainly localized in two clusters, separated by a region of high locking. The ruptures of mainshock and largest aftershock nucleate within these clusters and propagate to the locked region; the aftershocks are again localized in correspondence to the original spatial clusters, and the central region is locked again. More than 300 moment tensor inversions were performed, down to Mw 4.0, most of them corresponding to almost pure double couple thrust mechanisms, with a geometry consistent with the slab orientation. No significant differences are observed among thrust mechanisms in different areas, nor among thrust foreshocks and aftershocks. However, a new family of normal fault mechanisms appears after the main shock, likely affecting the shallow wedge structure in consequence of the increased extensional stress in this region. We infer a stress rotation after the main shock, as proposed for recent larger thrust earthquakes, which suggests that the April

  16. Aftershock communication during the Canterbury Earthquakes, New Zealand: implications for response and recovery in the built environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julia Becker,; Wein, Anne; Sally Potter,; Emma Doyle,; Ratliff, Jamie L.

    2015-01-01

    On 4 September 2010, a Mw7.1 earthquake occurred in Canterbury, New Zealand. Following the initial earthquake, an aftershock sequence was initiated, with the most significant aftershock being a Mw6.3 earthquake occurring on 22 February 2011. This aftershock caused severe damage to the city of Christchurch and building failures that killed 185 people. During the aftershock sequence it became evident that effective communication of aftershock information (e.g., history and forecasts) was imperative to assist with decision making during the response and recovery phases of the disaster, as well as preparedness for future aftershock events. As a consequence, a joint JCDR-USGS research project was initiated to investigate: • How aftershock information was communicated to organisations and to the public; • How people interpreted that information; • What people did in response to receiving that information; • What information people did and did not need; and • What decision-making challenges were encountered relating to aftershocks. Research was conducted by undertaking focus group meetings and interviews with a range of information providers and users, including scientists and science advisors, emergency managers and responders, engineers, communication officers, businesses, critical infrastructure operators, elected officials, and the public. The interviews and focus group meetings were recorded and transcribed, and key themes were identified. This paper focuses on the aftershock information needs for decision-making about the built environment post-earthquake, including those involved in response (e.g., for building assessment and management), recovery/reduction (e.g., the development of new building standards), and readiness (e.g. between aftershocks). The research has found that the communication of aftershock information varies with time, is contextual, and is affected by interactions among roles, by other information, and by decision objectives. A number

  17. Seismotectonic framework of the 2010 February 27 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayes, Gavin P.; Bergman, Eric; Johnson, Kendra J.; Benz, Harley M.; Brown, Lucy; Meltzer, Anne S.

    2013-01-01

    After the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake, an international collaboration involving teams and instruments from Chile, the US, the UK, France and Germany established the International Maule Aftershock Deployment temporary network over the source region of the event to facilitate detailed, open-access studies of the aftershock sequence. Using data from the first 9-months of this deployment, we have analyzed the detailed spatial distribution of over 2500 well-recorded aftershocks. All earthquakes have been relocated using a hypocentral decomposition algorithm to study the details of and uncertainties in both their relative and absolute locations. We have computed regional moment tensor solutions for the largest of these events to produce a catalogue of 465 mechanisms, and have used all of these data to study the spatial distribution of the aftershock sequence with respect to the Chilean megathrust. We refine models of co-seismic slip distribution of the Maule earthquake, and show how small changes in fault geometries assumed in teleseismic finite fault modelling significantly improve fits to regional GPS data, implying that the accuracy of rapid teleseismic fault models can be substantially improved by consideration of existing fault geometry model databases. We interpret all of these data in an integrated seismotectonic framework for the Maule earthquake rupture and its aftershock sequence, and discuss the relationships between co-seismic rupture and aftershock distributions. While the majority of aftershocks are interplate thrust events located away from regions of maximum co-seismic slip, interesting clusters of aftershocks are identified in the lower plate at both ends of the main shock rupture, implying internal deformation of the slab in response to large slip on the plate boundary interface. We also perform Coulomb stress transfer calculations to compare aftershock locations and mechanisms to static stress changes following the Maule rupture. Without the

  18. Larger aftershocks happen farther away: nonseparability of magnitude and spatial distributions of aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Shaw, Bruce E.

    2015-01-01

    Aftershocks may be driven by stress concentrations left by the main shock rupture or by elastic stress transfer to adjacent fault sections or strands. Aftershocks that occur within the initial rupture may be limited in size, because the scale of the stress concentrations should be smaller than the primary rupture itself. On the other hand, aftershocks that occur on adjacent fault segments outside the primary rupture may have no such size limitation. Here we use high-precision double-difference relocated earthquake catalogs to demonstrate that larger aftershocks occur farther away than smaller aftershocks, when measured from the centroid of early aftershock activity—a proxy for the initial rupture. Aftershocks as large as or larger than the initiating event nucleate almost exclusively in the outer regions of the aftershock zone. This observation is interpreted as a signature of elastic rebound in the earthquake catalog and can be used to improve forecasting of large aftershocks.

  19. The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Jolivet, Romain; Simons, Mark; Rivera, Luis; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Riel, Bryan; Owen, Susan E; Moore, Angelyn W; Samsonov, Sergey V; Ortega Culaciati, Francisco; Minson, Sarah E.

    2016-01-01

    The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.

  20. Felt reports and intensity assignments for aftershocks and triggered events of the great 1906 California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meltzner, Aron J.; Wald, David J.

    2002-01-01

    The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strikeslip faults in the world, yet little is known about the aftershocks following the most recent great event on the San Andreas, the M 7.8 San Francisco earthquake, on 18 April 1906. This open-file report is a compilation of first-hand accounts (felt reports) describing aftershocks and triggered events of the 1906 earthquake, for the first twenty months of the aftershock sequence (through December 1907). The report includes a chronological catalog. For the larger events, Modified Mercalli intensities (MMIs) have been assigned based on the descriptions judged to be the most reliable.

  1. Seismological evidence of an active footwall shortcut thrust in the Northern Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line derived by the aftershock sequence of the 2014 M 6.7 Northern Nagano earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panayotopoulos, Yannis; Hirata, Naoshi; Hashima, Akinori; Iwasaki, Takaya; Sakai, Shin'ichi; Sato, Hiroshi

    2016-06-01

    A destructive M 6.7 earthquake struck Northern Nagano prefecture on November 22, 2014. The main shock occurred on the Kamishiro fault segment of the northern Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line (ISTL). We used data recorded at 41 stations of the local seismographic network in order to locate 2118 earthquakes that occurred between November 18 and November 30, 2014. To estimate hypocenters, we assigned low Vp models to stations within the Northern Fossa Magna (NFM) basin thus accounting for large lateral crustal heterogeneities across the Kamishiro fault. In order to further improve accuracy, the final hypocenter locations were recalculated inside a 3D velocity model using the double-difference method. We used the aftershock activity distribution and focal mechanism solutions of major events in order to estimate the source fault area of the main shock. Our analysis suggests that the shallow part of the source fault corresponds to the surface trace of the Kamishiro fault and dips 30°-45° SE, while the deeper part of the source fault corresponds to the downdip portion of the Otari-Nakayama fault, a high angle fault dipping 50°-65° SE that formed during the opening of the NFM basin in the Miocene. Along its surface trace the Otari-Nakayama fault has been inactive during the late Quaternary. We verified the validity of our model by calculating surface deformation using a simple homogeneous elastic half-space model and comparing it to observed surface deformation from satellite interferometry, assuming large coseismic slip in the areas of low seismicity and small coseismic slip in the areas of high seismicity. Shallowing of the source fault from 50°-65° to 30°-45° in the upper 4 km, in the areas where both surface fault traces are visible, is a result of footwall shortcut thrusting by the Kamishiro fault off the Otari-Nakayama fault.

  2. Simulating Aftershocks for an On Site Inspection (OSI) Exercise

    SciTech Connect

    Sweeney, J. J.; Ford, S. R.

    2015-10-05

    The experience of IFE14 emphasizes the need for a better way to simulate aftershocks during an OSI exercise. The obvious approach is to develop a digital model of aftershocks that can be used either for a real field exercise or for a computer simulation that can be done in an office, for training for example. However, this approach involves consideration of several aspects, such as how and when to introduce waveforms in a way that maximizes the realism of the data and that will be convincing to a savvy, experienced seismic analyst. The purpose of this report is to outline a plan for how this approach can be implemented.

  3. Forecasting Aftershocks from Multiple Earthquakes: Lessons from the Mw=7.3 2015 Nepal Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiménez, Abigail; NicBhloscaidh, Mairéad; McCloskey, John

    2016-04-01

    The Omori decay of aftershocks is often perturbed by large secondary events which present particular, but not uncommon, challenges to aftershock forecasting. The Mw = 7.8, 25 April 2015, Gorkha, Nepal earthquake was followed on 12 May by the Mw = 7.3 Kodari earthquake, superimposed its own aftershocks on the Gorkha sequence, immediately invalidating forecasts made by single-mainshock forecasting methods. The complexity of the Gorkha rupture process, where the hypocentre and moment centroid were separated by some 75 km, provided an insurmountable challenge for other standard forecasting methods. Here, we report several modifications of existing algorithms, which were developed in response to the complexity of this sequence and which appear to provide a more general framework for the robust and dependable forecasting of aftershock probabilities. We suggest that these methods may be operationalised to provide a scientific underpinning for an evidence-based management system for post-earthquake crises.

  4. Role of static stress diffusion in the spatiotemporal organization of aftershocks.

    PubMed

    Lippiello, E; de Arcangelis, L; Godano, C

    2009-07-17

    We investigate the spatial distribution of aftershocks, and we find that aftershock linear density exhibits a maximum that depends on the main shock magnitude, followed by a power law decay. The exponent controlling the asymptotic decay and the fractal dimensionality of epicenters clearly indicate triggering by static stress. The nonmonotonic behavior of the linear density and its dependence on the main shock magnitude can be interpreted in terms of diffusion of static stress. This is supported by the power law growth with exponent H approximately 0.5 of the average main-aftershock distance. Implementing static stress diffusion within a stochastic model for aftershock occurrence, we are able to reproduce aftershock linear density spatial decay, its dependence on the main shock magnitude, and its evolution in time.

  5. Stress Triggering of Conjugate Normal Faulting: Late Aftershocks of the 1983 M 7.3 Borah Peak, Idaho Earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Suzette J. Payne; James Zollweg; David Rodgers

    2004-06-01

    The 1984 Devil Canyon sequence was a late aftershock sequence of the 28 October 1983 Ms 7.3 Borah Peak, Idaho, earthquake. The sequence began on 22 August 1984 with the ML 5.8 Devil Canyon earthquake, which nucleated at a depth of 12.8 ± 0.7 km between the surface traces of two normal faults, the Challis segment of the Lost River fault and the Lone Pine fault. Two hundred thirty-seven aftershocks were recorded by a temporary array during a 3-week period. Their focal mechanisms and hypocenter distribution define a cross-sectional "V" pattern whose base corresponds to the ML 5.8 event, whose tips correspond to the exposed fault traces, and whose sides define two planar fault zones oriented N25°W, 75°SW (Challis fault segment) and N39°W, 58°NE (Lone Pine fault). This pattern describes a graben bounded by conjugate normal faults. Temporal aspects of the Devil Canyon sequence provide strong evidence that slip on conjugate normal faults occurs sequentially. Aftershocks occurred primarily along the Challis segment until the occurrence of the 8 September 1984 ML 5.0 earthquake along the Lone Pine fault, after which aftershocks primarily occurred along this fault. These observations are consistent with worldwide seismologic and geologic observations and with physical and numerical models of conjugate normal faulting. Aftershocks of the Devil Canyon sequence occurred immediately northwest of the ML 5.8 Devils Canyon earthquake, which itself was immediately northwest of the Thousand Springs segment of the Lost River fault (the fault that slipped in association with the Ms 7.3 Borah Peak earthquake). Coulomb failure stress analysis indicates that stress increases resulting from both the Borah Peak mainshock and Devil Canyon ML 5.8 earthquake were sufficient to induce failure on the Lone Pine fault. These space–time patterns suggest that conjugate normal faults may transfer stress or accommodate stress changes at the terminations of major normal faults in the Basin and

  6. Recent Scope-and-Sequence Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beem, Ronald

    1990-01-01

    Presents scope-and-sequence models from the National Commission on Social Studies in the Schools, the Bradley Commission on History in Schools, and three from the National Council for the Social Studies (NCSS) Ad Hoc Committee on Scope and Sequence. Provides NCSS's criteria on scope and sequence and notes that sequence of the five models varies…

  7. Coseismic Slip Model of the M 7.8 2015 Nepal Earthquake and its M 7.2 Aftershock from Joint Inversion of InSAR and GPS Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheloni, D.; Tolomei, C.; Bignami, C.; D'Agostino, N.; Atzori, S.

    2015-12-01

    We derived a coseismic slip model for the M 7.8 2015 Nepal earthquake on the basis of radar line-of-sight displacements retrieved from RADARSAT, ALOS and SENTINEL interferograms and GPS data. We use the surface trace of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) and moment tensor solution to approximate the earthquake rupture plane with a planar thrust fault having a strike of ~295° and a dip of ~10°. Our rupture model suggests that the slip area is about 120 x 50 km, with the most of the moment release limited to a depth between 10-20 km. Therefore the earthquake did not reach the surface suggesting a marked shallow slip deficit in the slip depth distribution. The earthquake released a seismic moment of 7.88E+20 Nm, corresponding to a Mw 7.88. Adopting the same fault geometry we also estimated the slip distribution related to the M 7.2 aftershock that occurred near the eastern end of the main coseismic asperity. The aftershock rupture model shows a more compact slip area of about 30 x 30 km, releasing a moment of 5.49E+19 Nm and corresponding to a Mw 7.13. We calculated the static stress changes on the assumed fault plane due to the mainshock. The result suggests loading of the fault around the main coseismic patch where indeed most of the aftershocks, comprising the M 7.2 event, were primarily distributed. Future researches will be focused on the up-dip locked portions of the MHT that did not break during the 25 April 2015 Nepal earthquake and the monitoring of the post-seismic phase by means of InSAR and GPS data.

  8. Self-similar aftershock rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidsen, Jörn; Baiesi, Marco

    2016-08-01

    In many important systems exhibiting crackling noise—an intermittent avalanchelike relaxation response with power-law and, thus, self-similar distributed event sizes—the "laws" for the rate of activity after large events are not consistent with the overall self-similar behavior expected on theoretical grounds. This is particularly true for the case of seismicity, and a satisfying solution to this paradox has remained outstanding. Here, we propose a generalized description of the aftershock rates which is both self-similar and consistent with all other known self-similar features. Comparing our theoretical predictions with high-resolution earthquake data from Southern California we find excellent agreement, providing particularly clear evidence for a unified description of aftershocks and foreshocks. This may offer an improved framework for time-dependent seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting.

  9. Self-similar aftershock rates.

    PubMed

    Davidsen, Jörn; Baiesi, Marco

    2016-08-01

    In many important systems exhibiting crackling noise-an intermittent avalanchelike relaxation response with power-law and, thus, self-similar distributed event sizes-the "laws" for the rate of activity after large events are not consistent with the overall self-similar behavior expected on theoretical grounds. This is particularly true for the case of seismicity, and a satisfying solution to this paradox has remained outstanding. Here, we propose a generalized description of the aftershock rates which is both self-similar and consistent with all other known self-similar features. Comparing our theoretical predictions with high-resolution earthquake data from Southern California we find excellent agreement, providing particularly clear evidence for a unified description of aftershocks and foreshocks. This may offer an improved framework for time-dependent seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting. PMID:27627324

  10. Self-similar aftershock rates.

    PubMed

    Davidsen, Jörn; Baiesi, Marco

    2016-08-01

    In many important systems exhibiting crackling noise-an intermittent avalanchelike relaxation response with power-law and, thus, self-similar distributed event sizes-the "laws" for the rate of activity after large events are not consistent with the overall self-similar behavior expected on theoretical grounds. This is particularly true for the case of seismicity, and a satisfying solution to this paradox has remained outstanding. Here, we propose a generalized description of the aftershock rates which is both self-similar and consistent with all other known self-similar features. Comparing our theoretical predictions with high-resolution earthquake data from Southern California we find excellent agreement, providing particularly clear evidence for a unified description of aftershocks and foreshocks. This may offer an improved framework for time-dependent seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting.

  11. Spatial Distributions of Foreshocks and Aftershocks: Static or Dynamic Triggering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, M. J.; Rubin, A. M.

    2012-04-01

    In recent years, the spatial distributions of foreshocks and aftershocks have been scrutinized for evidence supporting either triggering by static stress changes induced by the permanent deformation from prior earthquakes or triggering by the dynamic stresses from seismic waves. Felzer & Brodsky (2006) identified small (m<4) mainshocks and triggered aftershocks, stacked the distances between these pairs and observed a single power-law decay with distance that extends beyond the zone traditionally thought to be affected by static stress changes. On this basis, they argued that dynamic stresses are responsible for triggering earthquakes. Richards-Dinger et al. (2010) and other studies, however, have presented several lines of evidence that suggest otherwise. One crucial question is whether the stacked distances of pairs of earthquakes, representing either mainshock-aftershock or foreshock-mainshock pairs, are in fact correctly identified and not misattributed, unrelated earthquakes. This question is especially important in the critical distance range of several to tens of earthquake radii, over which static stresses are thought to be too small to affect seismicity. If earthquake pairs in this range are not causally related, then the histogram of foreshock-mainshock and mainshock-aftershock pairs should be identical, and the difference between the two histograms can be used to identify remote triggering. Results based on southern Californian seismicity suggest that (1) the existence of a single power-law with a particular exponent may not be a robust observation, (2) geothermal regions seem to play an important role over the relevant distances, (3) remote triggering seems to exist beyond the classical static stress influence zone (perhaps out to 15 km after mainshocks with magnitudes between 3 and 4), (4) simple ETAS model simulations cannot reproduce all observations, and (5) at most one-third of the remote aftershocks had received significant static Coulomb stress

  12. Aftershocks illuninate the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake causative fault zone and nearby active faults

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Horton, Jr., J. Wright; Shah, Anjana K.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Snyder, Stephen L.; Carter, Aina M

    2015-01-01

    Deployment of temporary seismic stations after the 2011 Mineral, Virginia (USA), earthquake produced a well-recorded aftershock sequence. The majority of aftershocks are in a tabular cluster that delineates the previously unknown Quail fault zone. Quail fault zone aftershocks range from ~3 to 8 km in depth and are in a 1-km-thick zone striking ~036° and dipping ~50°SE, consistent with a 028°, 50°SE main-shock nodal plane having mostly reverse slip. This cluster extends ~10 km along strike. The Quail fault zone projects to the surface in gneiss of the Ordovician Chopawamsic Formation just southeast of the Ordovician–Silurian Ellisville Granodiorite pluton tail. The following three clusters of shallow (<3 km) aftershocks illuminate other faults. (1) An elongate cluster of early aftershocks, ~10 km east of the Quail fault zone, extends 8 km from Fredericks Hall, strikes ~035°–039°, and appears to be roughly vertical. The Fredericks Hall fault may be a strand or splay of the older Lakeside fault zone, which to the south spans a width of several kilometers. (2) A cluster of later aftershocks ~3 km northeast of Cuckoo delineates a fault near the eastern contact of the Ordovician Quantico Formation. (3) An elongate cluster of late aftershocks ~1 km northwest of the Quail fault zone aftershock cluster delineates the northwest fault (described herein), which is temporally distinct, dips more steeply, and has a more northeastward strike. Some aftershock-illuminated faults coincide with preexisting units or structures evident from radiometric anomalies, suggesting tectonic inheritance or reactivation.

  13. Correlation of foreshocks and aftershocks and asperities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Vindell; Helsley, Charles E.; Berg, Eduard; Novelo-Casanova, David A.

    1984-11-01

    A close correlation in spatial distribution of local seismic activity and energy release patterns before and after the 1979 Petatlan, Mexico earthquake suggests heterogeneity within the fault plane of this major low-angle thrust event associated with subduction along the Middle America Trench. A simple two-asperity model is proposed to account for the complexity. Foreshocks and aftershocks of the neighboring 1981 Playa Azul earthquake showed a similar pattern. As both events occurred at the junction of the Orozco Fracture Zone and the Middle America Trench, we speculate that the observed complex fault plane is caused by subduction of the rugged ocean floor of the Orozco Fracture Zone. Short-term precursory seismicity prior to the Petatlan earthquake can be explained by using the asperity model and migration of a slip front from the south-east to the north-west across the main shock source region.

  14. Exponential decline of aftershocks of the M7.9 1868 great Kau earthquake, Hawaii, through the 20th century

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klein, F.W.; Wright, Tim

    2008-01-01

    The remarkable catalog of Hawaiian earthquakes going back to the 1820s is based on missionary diaries, newspaper accounts, and instrumental records and spans the great M7.9 Kau earthquake of April 1868 and its aftershock sequence. The earthquake record since 1868 defines a smooth curve complete to M5.2 of the declining rate into the 21st century, after five short volcanic swarms are removed. A single aftershock curve fits the earthquake record, even with numerous M6 and 7 main shocks and eruptions. The timing of some moderate earthquakes may be controlled by magmatic stresses, but their overall long-term rate reflects one of aftershocks of the Kau earthquake. The 1868 earthquake is, therefore, the largest and most controlling stress event in the 19th and 20th centuries. We fit both the modified Omori (power law) and stretched exponential (SE) functions to the earthquakes. We found that the modified Omori law is a good fit to the M ??? 5.2 earthquake rate for the first 10 years or so and the more rapidly declining SE function fits better thereafter, as supported by three statistical tests. The switch to exponential decay suggests that a possible change in aftershock physics may occur from rate and state fault friction, with no change in the stress rate, to viscoelastic stress relaxation. The 61-year exponential decay constant is at the upper end of the range of geodetic relaxation times seen after other global earthquakes. Modeling deformation in Hawaii is beyond the scope of this paper, but a simple interpretation of the decay suggests an effective viscosity of 1019 to 1020 Pa s pertains in the volcanic spreading of Hawaii's flanks. The rapid decline in earthquake rate poses questions for seismic hazard estimates in an area that is cited as one of the most hazardous in the United States.

  15. A detailed study of the Pernik (Bulgaria) seismic sequence of 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raykova, Plamena; Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stela; Dimitrova, Liliya

    2014-05-01

    A detailed study of the Pernik (Bulgaria) seismic sequence of 2012 D.Solakov, S.Simeonova ,I. Georgiev, P.Raykova, L.Dimitrova and V.Protopopova National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography-BAS, Sofia, Bulgaria The spatial and temporal clustering of aftershocks is the dominant non-random element of seismicity, so that when aftershocks are removed, the remaining activity can be modelled (as first approximation) as a Poisson process. The properties of aftershock sequences (distinct cluster, for example; even aftershocks can have aftershocks) allow time-dependent prediction of aftershock probabilities. Consideration of recent earthquake sequences suggests that aftershocks to large earthquakes although they are still, by definition, smaller events, can be very damaging and should be addressed in emergence planning scenarios. Because of the factors such as location and radiation pattern and the cumulative nature of building damage, aftershocks can cause more damage than the main shock. An earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 hit Sofia seismic zone, on May 22nd, 2012. The earthquake occurred in the vicinity of Pernik city, at about 25 km south west of the city of Sofia (the capital of Bulgaria). The event was followed by intensive activity. The active area is situated in the central part of western Bulgaria. That is the most populated (more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria. Seismicity in the zone is related to the marginal neotectonic faults of Sofia graben. The boundaries of the graben are represented by SE-NW fault system with expressive neotectonic activity. This zone is characterized by shallow earthquakes. The strongest known event in the region is the 1858 quake with intensity I0=9-10 MSK. The 1858 earthquake caused heavy destruction in the city of Sofia and the appearance of thermal spring. It is worth mentioning that the seismic sequence of May 2912 occurred in an area characterized by a long quiescence (of 95 years

  16. Foreshocks and aftershocks of Pisagua 2014 earthquake: time and space evolution of megathrust event.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuenzalida Velasco, Amaya; Rietbrock, Andreas; Wollam, Jack; Thomas, Reece; de Lima Neto, Oscar; Tavera, Hernando; Garth, Thomas; Ruiz, Sergio

    2016-04-01

    The 2014 Pisagua earthquake of magnitude 8.2 is the first case in Chile where a foreshock sequence was clearly recorded by a local network, as well all the complete sequence including the mainshock and its aftershocks. The seismicity of the last year before the mainshock include numerous clusters close to the epicentral zone (Ruiz et al; 2014) but it was on 16th March that this activity became stronger with the Mw 6.7 precursory event taking place in front of Iquique coast at 12 km depth. The Pisagua earthquake arrived on 1st April 2015 breaking almost 120 km N-S and two days after a 7.6 aftershock occurred in the south of the rupture, enlarging the zone affected by this sequence. In this work, we analyse the foreshocks and aftershock sequence of Pisagua earthquake, from the spatial and time evolution for a total of 15.764 events that were recorded from the 1st March to 31th May 2015. This event catalogue was obtained from the automatic analyse of seismic raw data of more than 50 stations installed in the north of Chile and the south of Peru. We used the STA/LTA algorithm for the detection of P and S arrival times on the vertical components and then a method of back propagation in a 1D velocity model for the event association and preliminary location of its hypocenters following the algorithm outlined by Rietbrock et al. (2012). These results were then improved by locating with NonLinLoc software using a regional velocity model. We selected the larger events to analyse its moment tensor solution by a full waveform inversion using ISOLA software. In order to understand the process of nucleation and propagation of the Pisagua earthquake, we also analysed the evolution in time of the seismicity of the three months of data. The zone where the precursory events took place was strongly activated two weeks before the mainshock and remained very active until the end of the analysed period with an important quantity of the seismicity located in the upper plate and having

  17. Aftershock triggering by complete Coulomb stress changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilb, Debi; Gomberg, J.; Bodin, P.

    2002-01-01

    We examine the correlation between seismicity rate change following the 1992, M7.3, Landers, California, earthquake and characteristics of the complete Coulomb failure stress (CFS) changes (??CFS(t)) that this earthquake generated. At close distances the time-varying "dynamic" portion of the stress change depends on how the rupture develops temporally and spatially and arises from radiated seismic waves and from permanent coseismic fault displacement. The permanent "static" portion (??CFS) depends only on the final coseismic displacement. ??CFS diminishes much more rapidly with distance than the transient, dynamic stress changes. A common interpretation of the strong correlation between ??CFS and aftershocks is that load changes can advance or delay failure. Stress changes may also promote failure by physically altering properties of the fault or its environs. Because it is transient, ??CFS(t) can alter the failure rate only by the latter means. We calculate both ??CFS and the maximum positive value of ??CFS(t) (peak ??CFS(t)) using a reflectivity program. Input parameters are constrained by modeling Landers displacement seismograms. We quantify the correlation between maps of seismicity rate changes and maps of modeled ??CFS and peak ??CFS(t) and find agreement for both models. However, rupture directivity, which does not affect ??CFS, creates larger peak ??CFS(t) values northwest of the main shock. This asymmetry is also observed in seismicity rate changes but not in ??CFS. This result implies that dynamic stress changes are as effective as static stress changes in triggering aftershocks and may trigger earthquakes long after the waves have passed.

  18. Iterative Strategies for Aftershock Classification in Automatic Seismic Processing Pipelines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibbons, Steven J.; Kværna, Tormod; Harris, David B.; Dodge, Douglas A.

    2016-04-01

    Aftershock sequences following very large earthquakes present enormous challenges to near-realtime generation of seismic bulletins. The increase in analyst resources needed to relocate an inflated number of events is compounded by failures of phase association algorithms and a significant deterioration in the quality of underlying fully automatic event bulletins. Current processing pipelines were designed a generation ago and, due to computational limitations of the time, are usually limited to single passes over the raw data. With current processing capability, multiple passes over the data are feasible. Processing the raw data at each station currently generates parametric data streams which are then scanned by a phase association algorithm to form event hypotheses. We consider the scenario where a large earthquake has occurred and propose to define a region of likely aftershock activity in which events are detected and accurately located using a separate specially targeted semi-automatic process. This effort may focus on so-called pattern detectors, but here we demonstrate a more general grid search algorithm which may cover wider source regions without requiring waveform similarity. Given many well-located aftershocks within our source region, we may remove all associated phases from the original detection lists prior to a new iteration of the phase association algorithm. We provide a proof-of-concept example for the 2015 Gorkha sequence, Nepal, recorded on seismic arrays of the International Monitoring System. Even with very conservative conditions for defining event hypotheses within the aftershock source region, we can automatically remove over half of the original detections which could have been generated by Nepal earthquakes and reduce the likelihood of false associations and spurious event hypotheses. Further reductions in the number of detections in the parametric data streams are likely using correlation and subspace detectors and/or empirical matched

  19. A Quantitative Test for the Spatial Relationship Between Aftershock Distributions and Mainshock Rupture Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woessner, J.; Ripperger, J.; Mai, M. P.; Wiemer, S.

    2004-12-01

    Correlating the properties of the mainshock rupture with the location of corresponding aftershocks may provide insight into the relationship between mainshock-induced static stress changes and aftershock occurrence. In this study, we develop a rigorous statistical test to quantify the spatial pattern of aftershock locations with the corresponding distributions of coseismic slip and stress-drop. Well-located aftershock hypocenters are projected onto the mainshock fault plane and coseismic slip and stress drop values are interpolated to their respective location. The null hypothesis H0 for the applied test statistic is: Aftershock hypocenters are randomly distributed on the mainshock fault plane and are not correlated with mainshock properties. Because we want to maintain spatial earthquake clustering as one of the important observed features of seismicity, we synthesize slip distributions using a random spatial field model from which we then compute the respective stress-drop distributions. For each simulation of earthquake slip, we compute the test statistic for the slip and stress-drop distribution, testing whether or not an apparent correlation between mainshock properties and aftershock locations exists. Uncertainties in the aftershock locations are accounted for by simulating a thousand catalogues for which we randomize the location of the aftershocks within their given location error bounds. We then determine the number of aftershocks in low-slip or negative stress-drop regions for simulated slip distributions, and compare those to the measurements obtained for finite-source slip inversions. We apply the test to crustal earthquakes in California and Japan. If possible, we use different source models and earthquake catalogues with varying accuracy to investigate the dependence of the test results on, for example, the location uncertainties of aftershocks. Contrary to the visual impression, we find that for some strike-slip earthquakes or segments of the

  20. Clustering analysis of seismicity and aftershock identification.

    PubMed

    Zaliapin, Ilya; Gabrielov, Andrei; Keilis-Borok, Vladimir; Wong, Henry

    2008-07-01

    We introduce a statistical methodology for clustering analysis of seismicity in the time-space-energy domain and use it to establish the existence of two statistically distinct populations of earthquakes: clustered and nonclustered. This result can be used, in particular, for nonparametric aftershock identification. The proposed approach expands the analysis of Baiesi and Paczuski [Phys. Rev. E 69, 066106 (2004)10.1103/PhysRevE.69.066106] based on the space-time-magnitude nearest-neighbor distance eta between earthquakes. We show that for a homogeneous Poisson marked point field with exponential marks, the distance eta has the Weibull distribution, which bridges our results with classical correlation analysis for point fields. The joint 2D distribution of spatial and temporal components of eta is used to identify the clustered part of a point field. The proposed technique is applied to several seismicity models and to the observed seismicity of southern California.

  1. Complex faulting associated with the 22 December 2003 Mw 6.5 San Simeon California, earthquake, aftershocks and postseismic surface deformation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McLaren, M.K.; Hardebeck, J.L.; van der Elst, N.; Unruh, J.R.; Bawden, G.W.; Blair, J.L.

    2008-01-01

    We use data from two seismic networks and satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) imagery to characterize the 22 December 2003 Mw 6.5 San Simeon earthquake sequence. Absolute locations for the mainshock and nearly 10,000 aftershocks were determined using a new three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity model; relative locations were obtained using double difference. The mainshock location found using the 3D velocity model is 35.704?? N, 121.096?? W at a depth of 9.7 ?? 0.7 km. The aftershocks concentrate at the northwest and southeast parts of the aftershock zone, between the mapped traces of the Oceanic and Nacimiento fault zones. The northwest end of the mainshock rupture, as defined by the aftershocks, projects from the mainshock hypocenter to the surface a few kilometers west of the mapped trace of the Oceanic fault, near the Santa Lucia Range front and the > 5 mm postseismic InSAR imagery contour. The Oceanic fault in this area, as mapped by Hall (1991), is therefore probably a second-order synthetic thrust or reverse fault that splays upward from the main seismogenic fault at depth. The southeast end of the rupture projects closer to the mapped Oceanic fault trace, suggesting much of the slip was along this fault, or at a minimum is accommodating much of the postseismic deformation. InSAR imagery shows ???72 mm of postseismic uplift in the vicinity of maximum coseismic slip in the central section of the rupture, and ???48 and ???45 mm at the northwest and southeast end of the aftershock zone, respectively. From these observations, we model a ???30-km-long northwest-trending northeast-dipping mainshock rupture surface - called the mainthrust - which is likely the Oceanic fault at depth, a ???10-km-long southwest-dipping backthrust parallel to the mainthrust near the hypocenter, several smaller southwest-dipping structures in the southeast, and perhaps additional northeast-dipping or subvertical structures southeast of the mainshock plane

  2. Monitoring 2015 Nepal aftershocks with the deployment of a TEXAN array in southern Tibet, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, H. W.; Zou, Z.; Tong, S.; Zhang, J.; Liu, H.

    2015-12-01

    The Mw7.8 Nepal earthquake occurred on 4/25/2015 caused a continuous string of aftershocks, including the Mw7.3 main aftershock on 5/12/2015. The aftershocks, distributed mostly between the main shock and the main aftershock, are indicative of the structure of the main frontal thrust and associated fault system. Shortly after the Mw7.3 main aftershock, we conducted a field deployment of a 100-km-long array of 31 TEXAN miniature seismometers in southern Tibet, north of the Nepal-China boarder, from 5/20/2015 to 6/17/2015. This roughly north-south array with around 3 km in station spacing have recorded many aftershocks of the 2015 Nepal Earthquake series, including 22 aftershocks greater than M4.0, as well as over one hundred teleseismic events greater than M5.0, including the M7.8 deep earthquake in Chichi-shima, Japan and a sequence of M6.0 earthquakes in Solomon Islands. The purposes of deploying this mobile 2D array are: (1) Assessing the feasibility of deploying TEXAN seismometers in southern Tibet and the data quality; (2) Monitoring further aftershocks of the Nepal earthquake series and other events; and (3) Mapping the crustal structure beneath the array using regional and teleseismic data. It is encouraging that our first deployment has resulted in good data quality, and we are making a seismic profile beneath the 2D transect. Since the feasibility of deploying TEXAN's in southern Tibet is proven, we plan to make further deployment of TEXAN arrays to study crustal structure in southern Tibet.

  3. Shape of the plate interface near the Mejillones Peninsula in Northern Chile inferred from high resolution relocation of Tocopilla aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuenzalida, A.; Schurr, B.; Lancieri, M.; Madariaga, R. I.

    2011-12-01

    The 14 November, Mw 7.8 2007 Tocopilla earthquake broke the southern part of seismic gap of northern Chile. The earthquake broke a rupture area 130 km by 30km along the deep plate interface between the Nazca and South American plates.The aftershock of this event were very well recorded by the IPOC (GFZ-IPGP-DGF) and Task Force networks (GFZ). Since the IPOC network was installed before the main Tocopilla earthquake we could locate the first two weeks of aftershocks with low accuracy.The first two weeks of aftershocks were characterised by a strong seismicity in the southern area starting with two big events of Mw 6.8 and 6.3 one day after the Tocopilla earthquake. On 29 November 2007 a Task Force (TF) Network of 20 short period instruments was installed by the GFZ team in the area of the Mejillones Peninsula. On 16 December a large Mw 6.8 slab push event took place at the center of this network. This event broke the oceanic crust of the subducted Nazca plate.(see Ruiz and Madariaga, this meeting). We have analysed in detail the TF data from its installation to 20 December. Hypocentral locations of the sequence were computed by automatic identification of the aftershocks and careful hand made readings of the arrival times of P and S phases for each seismogram. In a first study, we used the the nonlinear location software,NonLinLoc of Anthony Lomax using both a 1D model proposed by Husen from the study of earlier events in the region and the 2D model proposed by Patzwall et al from seismic profiles across the Mejillones Peninsula. We find that aftershocks were located along a thin, clearly defined zone that we interpret as the plate interface. As expected events situated off-shore of the Mejillones peninsula are less well located by Nonlinloc although our results suggest that several of these events occurred above the plate interface in the South American wedge. In a second step we relocated 850 events using the HypoDD method of Waldhauser et al with time delays

  4. April 7, 2009, Mw 5.5 aftershock of the L'Aquila earthquake: seismogenic fault geometry and its implication for the central Apennines active extensional tectonics (Italy).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adinolfi, Guido Maria; Lavecchia, Giusy; De Matteis, Raffaella; Nardis Rita, De; Francesco, Brozzetti; Federica, Ferrarini; Zollo, Aldo

    2015-04-01

    , using the empirical Green's function (EGF) method (Vallée, 2004). We finally inverted the ASTFs to obtain a kinematic rupture model by the isochrone back-projection technique (Festa and Zollo, 2006) constraining the rupture plane geometry. Afterward, we integrated our results with surface and sub-surface geological data in order to define the seismotectonic role of the April 7 aftershock (Mw 5.5) fault structure in the intra-Apennine Quaternary extensional system. As preliminary results, our analysis constrains an east dipping extensional basal detachment and extends the knowledge of the complex fault pattern activated during the 2009 L'Aquila sequence also at greater depths (> 10 km).

  5. Correlating Aftershock Hypocenters With On-fault Main Shock Properties: Introducing Non-standard Statistical Tests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woessner, J.; Schorlemmer, D.; Wiemer, S.; Mai, P. M.

    2005-12-01

    Quantitatively correlating properties of finite-fault source models with hypocenters of aftershocks may provide new insight in the relationship between either slip or static stress change distributions and aftershock occurrence. We present advanced non-standard statistical test approaches to evaluate the test hypotheses (1) if aftershocks are preferentially located in areas of low slip and (2) if aftershocks are located in increased shear stress against the null hypothesis: aftershocks are located randomly on the fault plane. By using multiple test approaches, we investigate possible pitfalls and the information content of statistical testing. To perform the tests, we use earthquakes for which multiple finite-fault source models and earthquake catalogs of varying accuracy exist. The aftershock hypocenters are projected onto the main-shock rupture plane and uncertainties are accounted for by simulating hypocenter locations in the given error bounds. For the statistical tests, we retain the spatial clustering of earthquakes as the most important observed features of seismicity and synthesize random slip distributions with different approaches: first, using standard statistical methods that randomize the obtained finite-fault source model values and second, using a random spatial field model. We then determine the number of aftershocks in low-slip or increased shear-stress regions for simulated slip distributions, and compare those to the measurements obtained for finite-source slip inversions. We apply the tests to prominent earthquakes in California and Japan and find statistical significant evidence that aftershocks are preferentially located in low-slip regions. The tests, however, show a lower significance for the correlation with the shear-stress distribution, but are in general agreement with the expectations of the asperity model. Tests using the hypocenters of relocated catalogs show higher significances.

  6. The Use of Explosion Aftershock Probabilities for Planning and Deployment of Seismic Aftershock Monitoring System for an On-site Inspection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Labak, P.; Ford, S. R.; Sweeney, J. J.; Smith, A. T.; Spivak, A.

    2011-12-01

    One of four elements of CTBT verification regime is On-site inspection (OSI). Since the sole purpose of an OSI shall be to clarify whether a nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion has been carried out, inspection activities can be conducted and techniques used in order to collect facts to support findings provided in inspection reports. Passive seismological monitoring, realized by the seismic aftershock monitoring (SAMS) is one of the treaty allowed techniques during an OSI. Effective planning and deployment of SAMS during the early stages of an OSI is required due to the nature of possible events recorded and due to the treaty related constrains on size of inspection area, size of inspection team and length of an inspection. A method, which may help in planning the SAMS deployment is presented. An estimate of aftershock activity due to a theoretical underground nuclear explosion is produced using a simple aftershock rate model (Ford and Walter, 2010). The model is developed with data from the Nevada Test Site and Semipalatinsk Test Site, which we take to represent soft- and hard-rock testing environments, respectively. Estimates of expected magnitude and number of aftershocks are calculated using the models for different testing and inspection scenarios. These estimates can help to plan the SAMS deployment for an OSI by giving a probabilistic assessment of potential aftershocks in the Inspection Area (IA). The aftershock assessment combined with an estimate of the background seismicity in the IA and an empirically-derived map of threshold magnitude for the SAMS network could aid the OSI team in reporting. We tested the hard-rock model to a scenario similar to the 2008 Integrated Field Exercise 2008 deployment in Kazakhstan and produce an estimate of possible recorded aftershock activity.

  7. Stress history controls the spatial pattern of aftershocks: case studies from strike-slip earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Utkucu, Murat; Durmuş, Hatice; Nalbant, Süleyman

    2016-09-01

    Earthquake ruptures perturb stress within the surrounding crustal volume and as it is widely accepted now these stress perturbations strongly correlates with the following seismicity. Here we have documented five cases of the mainshock-aftershock sequences generated by the strike-slip faults from different tectonic environments of world in order to demonstrate that the stress changes resulting from large preceding earthquakes decades before effect spatial distribution of the aftershocks of the current mainshocks. The studied mainshock-aftershock sequences are the 15 October 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake (Mw = 6.4) in southern California, the 27 November 1979 Khuli-Boniabad (Mw = 7.1), the 10 May 1997 Qa'enat (Mw = 7.2) and the 31 March 2006 Silakhor (Mw = 6.1) earthquakes in Iran and the 13 March 1992 Erzincan earthquake (Mw = 6.7) in Turkey. In the literature, we have been able to find only these mainshocks that are mainly characterized by dense and strong aftershock activities along and beyond the one end of their ruptures while rare aftershock occurrences with relatively lower magnitude reported for the other end of their ruptures. It is shown that the stress changes resulted from earlier mainshock(s) that are close in both time and space might be the reason behind the observed aftershock patterns. The largest aftershocks of the mainshocks studied tend to occur inside the stress-increased lobes that were also stressed by the background earthquakes and not to occur inside the stress-increased lobes that fall into the stress shadow of the background earthquakes. We suggest that the stress shadows of the previous mainshocks may persist in the crust for decades to suppress aftershock distribution of the current mainshocks. Considering active researches about use of the Coulomb stress change maps as a practical tool to forecast spatial distribution of the upcoming aftershocks for earthquake risk mitigation purposes in near-real time, it is further suggested that

  8. Towards modeling DNA sequences as automata

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burks, Christian; Farmer, Doyne

    1984-01-01

    We seek to describe a starting point for modeling the evolution and role of DNA sequences within the framework of cellular automata by discussing the current understanding of genetic information storage in DNA sequences. This includes alternately viewing the role of DNA in living organisms as a simple scheme and as a complex scheme; a brief review of strategies for identifying and classifying patterns in DNA sequences; and finally, notes towards establishing DNA-like automata models, including a discussion of the extent of experimentally determined DNA sequence data present in the database at Los Alamos.

  9. Aftershock patterns and main shock faulting

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mendoza, C.; Hartzell, S.H.

    1988-01-01

    We have compared aftershock patterns following several moderate to large earthquakes with the corresponding distributions of coseismic slip obtained from previous analyses of the recorded strong ground motion and teleseismic waveforms. Our results are consistent with a hypothesis of aftershock occurrence that requires a secondary redistribution of stress following primary failure on the earthquake fault. Aftershocks followng earthquakes examined in this study occur mostly outside of or near the edges of the source areas indicated by the patterns of main shock slip. The spatial distribution of aftershocks reflects either a continuation of slip in the outer regions of the areas of maximum coseismic displacement or the activation of subsidiary faults within the volume surrounding the boundaries of main shock rupture. -from Authors

  10. The enigma of the Arthur's Pass, New Zealand, earthquake 1. Reconciling a variety of data for an unusual earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Abercrombie, R.E.; Webb, T.H.; Robinson, R.; McGinty, P.J.; Mori, J.J.; Beavan, R.J.

    2000-01-01

    The 1994 Arthur's Pass earthquake (Mw6.7) is the largest in a recent sequence of earthquakes in the central South Island, New Zealand. No surface rupture was observed the aftershock distribution was complex, and routine methods of obtaining the faulting orientation of this earthquake proved contradictory. We use a range of data and techniques to obtain our preferred solution, which has a centroid depth of 5 km, Mo=1.3??1019 N m, and a strike, dip, and rake of 221??, 47??, 112??, respectively. Discrepancies between this solution and the Harvard centroid moment tensor, together with the Global Positioning System (GPS) observations and unusual aftershock distribution, suggest that the rupture may not have occurred on a planar fault. A second, strike slip, subevent on a more northerly striking plane is suggested by these data but neither the body wave modeling nor regional broadband recordings show any complexity or late subevents. We relocate the aftershocks using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional velocity inversions. The depth range of the aftershocks (1-10 km) agrees well with the preferred mainshock centroid depth. The aftershocks near the hypocenter suggest a structure dipping toward the NW, which we interpret to be the mainshock fault plane. This structure and the Harper fault, ???15 km to the south appear to have acted as boundaries to the extensive aftershock zone trending NNW-SSE Most of the ML???5 aftershocks, including the two largest (ML6.1 and ML5.7), clustered near the Harper fault and have strike slip mechanisms consistent with motion on this fault and its conjugates. Forward modeling of the GPS data suggests that a reverse slip mainshock, combined with strike slip aftershock faulting in the south, is able to match the observed displacements. The occurrence of this earthquake sequence implies that the level of seismic hazard in the central South Island is greater than previous estimates. Copyright 2000 by the American Geophysical Union.

  11. Sequence modelling and an extensible data model for genomic database

    SciTech Connect

    Li, Peter Wei-Der Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA )

    1992-01-01

    The Human Genome Project (HGP) plans to sequence the human genome by the beginning of the next century. It will generate DNA sequences of more than 10 billion bases and complex marker sequences (maps) of more than 100 million markers. All of these information will be stored in database management systems (DBMSs). However, existing data models do not have the abstraction mechanism for modelling sequences and existing DBMS's do not have operations for complex sequences. This work addresses the problem of sequence modelling in the context of the HGP and the more general problem of an extensible object data model that can incorporate the sequence model as well as existing and future data constructs and operators. First, we proposed a general sequence model that is application and implementation independent. This model is used to capture the sequence information found in the HGP at the conceptual level. In addition, abstract and biological sequence operators are defined for manipulating the modelled sequences. Second, we combined many features of semantic and object oriented data models into an extensible framework, which we called the Extensible Object Model'', to address the need of a modelling framework for incorporating the sequence data model with other types of data constructs and operators. This framework is based on the conceptual separation between constructors and constraints. We then used this modelling framework to integrate the constructs for the conceptual sequence model. The Extensible Object Model is also defined with a graphical representation, which is useful as a tool for database designers. Finally, we defined a query language to support this model and implement the query processor to demonstrate the feasibility of the extensible framework and the usefulness of the conceptual sequence model.

  12. Sequence modelling and an extensible data model for genomic database

    SciTech Connect

    Li, Peter Wei-Der |

    1992-01-01

    The Human Genome Project (HGP) plans to sequence the human genome by the beginning of the next century. It will generate DNA sequences of more than 10 billion bases and complex marker sequences (maps) of more than 100 million markers. All of these information will be stored in database management systems (DBMSs). However, existing data models do not have the abstraction mechanism for modelling sequences and existing DBMS`s do not have operations for complex sequences. This work addresses the problem of sequence modelling in the context of the HGP and the more general problem of an extensible object data model that can incorporate the sequence model as well as existing and future data constructs and operators. First, we proposed a general sequence model that is application and implementation independent. This model is used to capture the sequence information found in the HGP at the conceptual level. In addition, abstract and biological sequence operators are defined for manipulating the modelled sequences. Second, we combined many features of semantic and object oriented data models into an extensible framework, which we called the ``Extensible Object Model``, to address the need of a modelling framework for incorporating the sequence data model with other types of data constructs and operators. This framework is based on the conceptual separation between constructors and constraints. We then used this modelling framework to integrate the constructs for the conceptual sequence model. The Extensible Object Model is also defined with a graphical representation, which is useful as a tool for database designers. Finally, we defined a query language to support this model and implement the query processor to demonstrate the feasibility of the extensible framework and the usefulness of the conceptual sequence model.

  13. REvolver: modeling sequence evolution under domain constraints.

    PubMed

    Koestler, Tina; von Haeseler, Arndt; Ebersberger, Ingo

    2012-09-01

    Simulating the change of protein sequences over time in a biologically realistic way is fundamental for a broad range of studies with a focus on evolution. It is, thus, problematic that typically simulators evolve individual sites of a sequence identically and independently. More realistic simulations are possible; however, they are often prohibited by limited knowledge concerning site-specific evolutionary constraints or functional dependencies between amino acids. As a consequence, a protein's functional and structural characteristics are rapidly lost in the course of simulated evolution. Here, we present REvolver (www.cibiv.at/software/revolver), a program that simulates protein sequence alteration such that evolutionarily stable sequence characteristics, like functional domains, are maintained. For this purpose, REvolver recruits profile hidden Markov models (pHMMs) for parameterizing site-specific models of sequence evolution in an automated fashion. pHMMs derived from alignments of homologous proteins or protein domains capture information regarding which sequence sites remained conserved over time and where in a sequence insertions or deletions are more likely to occur. Thus, they describe constraints on the evolutionary process acting on these sequences. To demonstrate the performance of REvolver as well as its applicability in large-scale simulation studies, we evolved the entire human proteome up to 1.5 expected substitutions per site. Simultaneously, we analyzed the preservation of Pfam and SMART domains in the simulated sequences over time. REvolver preserved 92% of the Pfam domains originally present in the human sequences. This value drops to 15% when traditional models of amino acid sequence evolution are used. Thus, REvolver represents a significant advance toward a realistic simulation of protein sequence evolution on a proteome-wide scale. Further, REvolver facilitates the simulation of a protein family with a user-defined domain architecture at

  14. Constraints on recent earthquake source parameters, fault geometry and aftershock characteristics in Oklahoma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNamara, D. E.; Benz, H.; Herrmann, R. B.; Bergman, E. A.; McMahon, N. D.; Aster, R. C.

    2014-12-01

    In late 2009, the seismicity of Oklahoma increased dramatically. The largest of these earthquakes was a series of three damaging events (Mw 4.8, 5.6, 4.8) that occurred over a span of four days in November 2011 near the town of Prague in central Oklahoma. Studies suggest that these earthquakes were induced by reactivation of the Wilzetta fault due to the disposal of waste water from hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") and other oil and gas activities. The Wilzetta fault is a northeast trending vertical strike-slip fault that is a well known structural trap for oil and gas. Since the November 2011 Prague sequence, thousands of small to moderate (M2-M4) earthquakes have occurred throughout central Oklahoma. The most active regions are located near the towns of Stillwater and Medford in north-central Oklahoma, and Guthrie, Langston and Jones near Oklahoma City. The USGS, in collaboration with the Oklahoma Geological Survey and the University of Oklahoma, has responded by deploying numerous temporary seismic stations in the region in order to record the vigorous aftershock sequences. In this study we use data from the temporary seismic stations to re-locate all Oklahoma earthquakes in the USGS National Earthquake Information Center catalog using a multiple-event approach known as hypo-centroidal decomposition that locates earthquakes with decreased uncertainty relative to one another. Modeling from this study allows us to constrain the detailed geometry of the reactivated faults, as well as source parameters (focal mechanisms, stress drop, rupture length) for the larger earthquakes. Preliminary results from the November 2011 Prague sequence suggest that subsurface rupture lengths of the largest earthquakes are anomalously long with very low stress drop. We also observe very high Q (~1000 at 1 Hz) that explains the large felt areas and we find relatively low b-value and a rapid decay of aftershocks.

  15. The Rule of Dynamic Strain to Near Source Aftershock Distribution of the 2014, Mw 6.0, Napa (California) Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emolo, A.; De Matteis, R.; Convertito, V.

    2015-12-01

    The 2014 Napa was recognized as a right-lateral strike-slip fault. About 400 aftershocks occurred, mainly in the near-source range, in the two months after the earthquake. They mostly occurred between 8 and 11 km depth interesting an area of about 10 km2 north-northwest-trending with respect to the mainshock hypocenter. However, the aftershock distribution was not able to constrain the mainshock fault plane. Since Parsons et al. (2014) have shown that Coulomb static stress change does not completely explain near-source aftershock distribution, we explore whether dynamic strain transfer, enhanced by source directivity, contributed to trigger the aftershock sequence. Indeed, dynamic strain transfer triggering attributes enhanced failure probabilities to increased shear stresses or strains, to permeability changes and maybe to fault weakening. In this respect, we observe that a single inverse power law fits the decay of aftershock density as function of distance from the fault plane, suggesting that dynamic stress/strain might have played a role in the aftershocks triggering. To test this hypothesis, we used Peak-Ground Velocities (PGVs) as a proxy for peak-dynamic strain/stress field, accounting for both fault finiteness and source directivity. We first use a point source to retrieve the best parameters of the directivity function from the inversion of the PGVs. Next, the same PGVs are used to jointly infer the surface fault projection and the dominant horizontal rupture direction. Finally, we map the peak-dynamic strain/stress, modified by source geometry and directivity, to resolve the relationship between the aftershocks location and the areas of large dynamic strain values. Thus, we believe that dynamic strain/stress actually contributed to the Napa aftershock distribution. Our results may help to better constrain the Napa causative fault and complement Coulomb static stress change to identify areas that will be more likely affected by aftershocks.

  16. High-Resolution Low Power, Intergrated Aftershock and Microzonation System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimakov, L.; Passmore, P.

    2012-04-01

    Refraction Technology, Inc. has developed a self-contained, fully integrated Aftershock System, model 160-03, providing the customer simple and quick deployment during aftershock emergency mobilization and microzonation studies. The 160-03 has no external cables or peripheral equipment for command/control and operation in the field. The 160-03 contains three major components integrated in one case: a) 24-bit resolution state-of-the art low power ADC with CPU and Lid interconnect boards; b) power source; and c) three component 2 Hz sensors (two horizontals and one vertical), and built-in ±4g accelerometer. Optionally, the 1 Hz sensors can be built-in the 160-03 system at the customer's request. The self-contained rechargeable battery pack provides power autonomy up to 7 days during data acquisition at 200 sps on continuous three weak motion and triggered three strong motion recording channels. For longer power autonomy, the 160-03 Aftershock System battery pack can be charged from an external source (solar power system). The data in the field is recorded to a built-in swappable USB flash drive. The 160-03 configuration is fixed based on a configuration file stored on the system. The detailed specifications and performance are presented and discussed

  17. The Importance of Small Aftershocks for Earthquake Triggering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woessner, Jochen; Meier, Men-Andrin; Werner, Max; Wiemer, Stefan

    2013-04-01

    Earthquakes occur in response to changes in the crust's stress state, however, the full picture of the causative process for earthquake triggering remains unclear. Many researchers have employed Coulomb stress change theory, which quantifies the changes in static Coulomb stress from nearby ruptures. This theory seems to at least partly explain the spatial patterns of triggered earthquakes, in particular during aftershock sequences and along faults. Several assumptions are needed to facilitate the calculation of stress changes. Here, we challenge the typical neglect of stress changes induced by the small but numerous and strongly clustered aftershocks during the evolution of the sequence. Both empirical observations and a simple scaling law suggest that this neglect may not be justified. We estimate the evolution of Coulomb stress changes during the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake sequence by including the effect of the detected aftershocks using the focal mechanisms from the recently updated Southern California catalog. This estimation is hampered by that only 62% of located events from our study window have a focal mechanism, by the neglect of events that are too small to be detected and by the unreliability of near-field stress change estimations. As a consequence, we are limited to analyzing only a part of the full stress change signal imparted by small events. Despite these shortcomings, our calculations suggest that small to moderate events strongly dominate static stress redistribution in dense secondary aftershock clusters. However, their relative importance varies over space and is, on average, smaller than the main shock contribution. Furthermore, we find that aftershocks - with their reported relative orientations and positions - impose more often positive than negative stress changes, which is what would be expected if they were actively involved in triggering processes. However, this effect appears to be limited to event pairs with inter-event distances

  18. Spectral scaling of the aftershocks of the Tocopilla 2007 earthquake in northern Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lancieri, M.; Madariaga, R.; Bonilla, F.

    2012-04-01

    We study the scaling of spectral properties of a set of 68 aftershocks of the 2007 November 14 Tocopilla (M 7.8) earthquake in northern Chile. These are all subduction events with similar reverse faulting focal mechanism that were recorded by a homogenous network of continuously recording strong motion instruments. The seismic moment and the corner frequency are obtained assuming that the aftershocks satisfy an inverse omega-square spectral decay; radiated energy is computed integrating the square velocity spectrum corrected for attenuation at high frequencies and for the finite bandwidth effect. Using a graphical approach, we test the scaling of seismic spectrum, and the scale invariance of the apparent stress drop with the earthquake size. To test whether the Tocopilla aftershocks scale with a single parameter, we introduce a non-dimensional number, ?, that should be constant if earthquakes are self-similar. For the Tocopilla aftershocks, Cr varies by a factor of 2. More interestingly, Cr for the aftershocks is close to 2, the value that is expected for events that are approximately modelled by a circular crack. Thus, in spite of obvious differences in waveforms, the aftershocks of the Tocopilla earthquake are self-similar. The main shock is different because its records contain large near-field waves. Finally, we investigate the scaling of energy release rate, Gc, with the slip. We estimated Gc from our previous estimates of the source parameters, assuming a simple circular crack model. We find that Gc values scale with the slip, and are in good agreement with those found by Abercrombie and Rice for the Northridge aftershocks.

  19. Tests of remote aftershock triggering by small mainshocks using Taiwan's earthquake catalog

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, W.; Toda, S.

    2014-12-01

    To understand earthquake interaction and forecast time-dependent seismic hazard, it is essential to evaluate which stress transfer, static or dynamic, plays a major role to trigger aftershocks and subsequent mainshocks. Felzer and Brodsky focused on small mainshocks (2≤M<3) and their aftershocks, and then argued that only dynamic stress change brings earthquake-to-earthquake triggering, whereas Richards-Dingers et al. (2010) claimed that those selected small mainshock-aftershock pairs were not earthquake-to-earthquake triggering but simultaneous occurrence of independent aftershocks following a larger earthquake or during a significant swarm sequence. We test those hypotheses using Taiwan's earthquake catalog by taking the advantage of lacking any larger event and the absence of significant seismic swarm typically seen with active volcano. Using Felzer and Brodsky's method and their standard parameters, we only found 14 mainshock-aftershock pairs occurred within 20 km distance in Taiwan's catalog from 1994 to 2010. Although Taiwan's catalog has similar number of earthquakes as California's, the number of pairs is about 10% of the California catalog. It may indicate the effect of no large earthquakes and no significant seismic swarm in the catalog. To fully understand the properties in the Taiwan's catalog, we loosened the screening parameters to earn more pairs and then found a linear aftershock density with a power law decay of -1.12±0.38 that is very similar to the one in Felzer and Brodsky. However, none of those mainshock-aftershock pairs were associated with a M7 rupture event or M6 events. To find what mechanism controlled the aftershock density triggered by small mainshocks in Taiwan, we randomized earthquake magnitude and location. We then found that those density decay in a short time period is more like a randomized behavior than mainshock-aftershock triggering. Moreover, 5 out of 6 pairs were found in a swarm-like temporal seismicity rate increase

  20. Using aftershocks to Image the Subducting Pacific Plate in a Region of Deep Slow Slip, Hikurangi Margin, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobs, K. M.; Hirschberg, H.; Louie, J. N.; Savage, M. K.; Bannister, S. C.

    2014-12-01

    We present seismic migrations using aftershocks of two M>6 earthquakes as sources. The Southern Cook Strait earthquake sequence, beginning on 19 July 2013, included the 21 July M=6.5 and 16 August M=6.6 2013 earthquakes, which were the largest shallow earthquakes to strike the Wellington region since 1942. Following the two largest earthquakes we began the Seddon Earthquake Aftershock Structural Investigation (SEASI) and deployed a line of 21 seismometers stretching approximately 400 km along the strike of the Hikurangi subduction zone in order to use aftershocks to illuminate the structure of the subducted Pacific slab. The SEASI line ties into the SAHKE line, which was an array of up to 900 seismometers that recorded air gun and explosion shots in deployments from 2009-2011. The SAHKE project characterized the structures perpendicular to the strike of the subduction zone. Our results use the SAHKE line as a starting point and look for strike-parallel variations in the depth of the Moho and other structures. Previous studies have suggested potential changes along strike in this region, and deep slow slip events (> 35 km) are also observed north of Wellington, further indicating that variation in properties exists along slab strike. We have used 246 M > 3 earthquakes that occurred from September 2013 through January 2014 to create common receiver gathers. Multicomponent prestack depth migration of these receiver gathers, with operator antialiasing control and prestack coherency filtering, produces reflectivity sections using a 1-D velocity model derived from the SAHKE project. Relocation of aftershocks of the Seddon earthquakes using the deployment of a temporary array by New Zealand GeoNet facilitates the migration. An initial P-P migration shows a north-dipping reflector at 15-25 km depth under the earthquake sequence, and suggests the Moho at 20-25 km depth. From Wellington, a reflector dips very gently south from 25-35 km depth, which is probably the slab

  1. Scaling Relations Between Mainshock Source Parameters and Aftershock Distributions for Use in Aftershock Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donovan, J.; Jordan, T. H.

    2010-12-01

    Aftershocks are often used to delineate the mainshock rupture zone retrospectively. In aftershock forecasting on the other hand, the problem is to use mainshock rupture area to determine the aftershock zone prospectively. The procedures for this type of prediction are not as well developed and have been restricted to simple parameterizations such as the Utsu-Seki (1955) scaling relation between mainshock energy and aftershock area (Ogata and Zhueng, 2006). With a focus on improving current forecasting methods, we investigate the relationship between spatial source parameters that can be rapidly computed (spatial centroid and characteristic dimensions) and corresponding spatial measures of the aftershock distribution. For a set of about 30 large events, we either extracted source parameters from the McGuire et al (2002) finite moment tensor (FMT) catalog, or computed them from the online SRCMOD database (Mai, 2004). We identified aftershocks with windowing and scale-free methods, and computed both L1 and L2 measures of their distributions. Our comparisons produce scaling relations among the characteristic dimensions that can be used to initiate aftershock forecasts. By using rapidly-determined source parameters, we can decrease the forecasting latency and thus improve the probability gain of the forecasting methods.

  2. Preliminary Focal Mechanism Analysis of the 6 November 2011 M 5.7 Oklahoma sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, M.; Sumy, D. F.; Cochran, E. S.; Keranen, K. M.; Abers, G. A.; Savage, H. M.

    2012-12-01

    A M5.7 strike-slip earthquake occurred on 6 November 2011 near Prague, Oklahoma and was followed by hundreds of aftershocks in the subsequent months. While earthquakes are not unknown to Oklahoma, seismicity rates in the region have risen steadily since 2008, with increases in both the frequency and intensity of the earthquakes observed. The M5.7 earthquake is the largest quake recorded during this recent period of increased seismicity. Prior to the mainshock, 19 seismometers were located within approximately 100 km of the event. An additional 28 seismometers were temporarily deployed after the mainshock to record the aftershock sequence. We use data collected from these seismometers to calculate the focal mechanisms for a subset of the aftershocks. Here, we examine the 80 largest aftershocks that occur prior to 31 December 2011. P-wave arrivals and polarities are manually identified on the vertical component of each station. Polarities are marked as impulsive or emergent and the pick is given a quality rating (0-4). We then use HASH (Hardebeck and Shearer, 2002) and a 1-D velocity model to calculate the focal mechanisms. For each event, HASH outputs a set of acceptable mechanisms and, based on how clustered the set of acceptable mechanisms is, a quality and uncertainty is assigned. The early aftershock locations suggest that the 5 November 2011 M5.0 foreshock, 6 November 2011 M5.7 mainshock, and the largest (8 November 2011 M5.0) aftershock may have occurred on faults with strikes of 34°, 55°, and 90°, respectively. Given this change in fault strike for the largest events in the sequence, we will investigate whether there is also a systematic variation in the aftershock focal mechanisms with time. We will also investigate spatial variation in focal mechanism type (e.g. strike-slip, normal, or thrust) and inferred fault strike.

  3. The earthquake and its aftershocks from May 2 through September 30, 1983

    SciTech Connect

    Eaton, J.P.

    1990-01-01

    Analysis of the Coalinga earthquake sequence, based on the Allen/Ellis real-time-processor (RTP) automatic P-phase-onset times and duration measurements, provides hypocentral and magnitude determinations for more than 6,000 events from May 2 through September 30, 1983. Focal mechanisms and local magnitudes of more than 140 of the larger aftershocks were calculated from more detailed observations obtained from magnetic-tape playbacks from both the temporary Coalinga seismic network and the permanent telemetered central California seismic network (Calnet). The combined catalog appears to be substantially complete for events of M {ge} 3 within about 3 hours, and for events of M {ge} 1.7 within about 1 day, after the main shock. The first-motion plot of the main shock offers two choices for the main-shock fault; a thrust fault striking N. 53{degree}W. and dipping 23{degree}SW. (the preferred fault plane), or a high-angle reverse fault striking N. 53{degree}W. and dipping 67{degree}NE. Focal mechanisms of the larger aftershocks also indicate predominantly thrust or reverse faulting. The long axis of the aftershock zone, which is 35 km long and 15 to 20 km wide, coincides with the axis of the Anticline Ridge-Guijarral Hills structure at the Coast Ranges-Great Valley boundary northeast of Coalinga. A transverse (southwest to northeast) quiet band with very few events crosses the aftershock zone where northwest-trending Anticline Ridge joins broader, east-west-trending Joaquin Ridge just northwest of the main shock. The smaller aftershocks occur mostly in the hanging-wall blocks above the faults outlined by the larger aftershocks.

  4. On the origin of diverse aftershock mechanisms following the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilb, Debi; Ellis, M.; Gomberg, J.; Davis, S.

    1997-01-01

    We test the hypothesis that the origin of the diverse suite of aftershock mechanisms following the 1989 M 7.1 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake is related to the post-main-shock static stress field. We use a 3-D boundary-element algorithm to calculate static stresses, combined with a Coulomb failure criterion to calculate conjugate failure planes at aftershock locations. The post-main-shock static stress field is taken as the sum of a pre-existing stress field and changes in stress due to the heterogeneous slip across the Loma Prieta rupture plane. The background stress field is assumed to be either a simple shear parallel to the regional trend of the San Andreas fault or approximately fault-normal compression. A suite of synthetic aftershock mechanisms from the conjugate failure planes is generated and quantitatively compared (allowing for uncertainties in both mechanism parameters and earthquake locations) to well-constrained mechanisms reported in the US Geological Survey Northern California Seismic Network catalogue. We also compare calculated rakes with those observed by resolving the calculated stress tensor onto observed focal mechanism nodal planes, assuming either plane to be a likely rupture plane. Various permutations of the assumed background stress field, frictional coefficients of aftershock fault planes, methods of comparisons, etc. explain between 52 and 92 per cent of the aftershock mechanisms. We can explain a similar proportion of mechanisms however by comparing a randomly reordered catalogue with the various suites of synthetic aftershocks. The inability to duplicate aftershock mechanisms reliably on a one-to-one basis is probably a function of the combined uncertainties in models of main-shock slip distribution, the background stress field, and aftershock locations. In particular we show theoretically that any specific main-shock slip distribution and a reasonable background stress field are able to generate a highly variable suite of failure

  5. Spatial/Temporal interdependence of aftershocks following the 10/31/2001 M5.1 Anza Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilb, D.; Martynov, V.; Vernon, F. L.

    2004-12-01

    On 10/31/2001, a M5.1 earthquake occurred in the middle of the ANZA network (7 24-bit broadband stations were within 20 km of the epicenter) that spans the San Jacinto fault zone in southern California. A high pass filter (f > 1.0 Hz) was used to identify seismic arrival times of the aftershocks and in turn determine the aftershock locations. In this way, we cataloged 599 events (0< M < 2.5) in the initial 2 hours of this sequence and 4500 aftershocks within the first 2 months, complete to M ≈ 0.0. Here, we study three different temporal/spatial features found in these data. (1) Initially we suspected earthquakes within the region of the mainshock had a bimodal distribution of earthquake magnitudes (peaks at M=0.1 and M=1.5); however, we found this distribution was an artifact of the spatial recording capabilities of small magnitude aftershocks. (2) In the original aftershock locations we found two linear voids in seismicity (trends ˜N45W and ˜N45E) in the primary aftershock cluster forming an X pattern. This is not likely caused by the number of significant digits in the location algorithm because these voids do not follow individual latitude or longitude lines, nor is this likely due to recording inaccuracies because the network coverage of the region is more than optimal. We are investigating other causes of these voids. (3) In the broadband data, we found only one detectable aftershock in the first 2 minutes of the continuous waveforms; yet on the short period records at one of the closest stations, TRO, we can identify an additional event at 15 seconds into the sequence. To quantify our detection capabilities, we estimate when aftershocks of different magnitudes can be identified within the mainshock coda. We are fairly confident that \\> M 1.5 events 45 seconds or longer after the mainshock should be detectable, which suggests that the lack of seismicity in the 45 second-2.0 minute range is potentially real. This non-zero lag-time between the mainshock

  6. Mixture of a seismicity model based on the rate-and-state friction and ETAS model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iwata, T.

    2015-12-01

    Currently the ETAS model [Ogata, 1988, JASA] is considered to be a standard model of seismicity. However, because the ETAS model is a purely statistical one, the physics-based seismicity model derived from the rate-and-state friction (hereafter referred to as Dieterich model) [Dieterich, 1994, JGR] is frequently examined. However, the original version of the Dieterich model has several problems in the application to real earthquake sequences and therefore modifications have been conducted in previous studies. Iwata [2015, Pageoph] is one of such studies and shows that the Dieterich model is significantly improved as a result of the inclusion of the effect of secondary aftershocks (i.e., aftershocks caused by previous aftershocks). However, still the performance of the ETAS model is superior to that of the improved Dieterich model. For further improvement, the mixture of the Dieterich and ETAS models is examined in this study. To achieve the mixture, the seismicity rate is represented as a sum of the ETAS and Dieterich models of which weights are given as k and 1-k, respectively. This mixture model is applied to the aftershock sequences of the 1995 Kobe and 2004 Mid-Niigata sequences which have been analyzed in Iwata [2015]. Additionally, the sequence of the Matsushiro earthquake swarm in central Japan 1965-1970 is also analyzed. The value of k and parameters of the ETAS and Dieterich models are estimated by means of the maximum likelihood method, and the model performances are assessed on the basis of AIC. For the two aftershock sequences, the AIC values of the ETAS model are around 3-9 smaller (i.e., better) than those of the mixture model. On the contrary, for the Matsushiro swarm, the AIC value of the mixture model is 5.8 smaller than that of the ETAS model, indicating that the mixture of the two models results in significant improvement of the seismicity model.

  7. The aftershock signature of supershear earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Bouchon, Michel; Karabulut, Hayrullah

    2008-06-01

    Recent studies show that earthquake faults may rupture at speeds exceeding the shear wave velocity of rocks. This supershear rupture produces in the ground a seismic shock wave similar to the sonic boom produced by a supersonic airplane. This shock wave may increase the destruction caused by the earthquake. We report that supershear earthquakes are characterized by a specific pattern of aftershocks: The fault plane itself is remarkably quiet whereas aftershocks cluster off the fault, on secondary structures that are activated by the supershear rupture. The post-earthquake quiescence of the fault shows that friction is relatively uniform over supershear segments, whereas the activation of off-fault structures is explained by the shock wave radiation, which produces high stresses over a wide zone surrounding the fault. PMID:18535239

  8. The aftershock signature of supershear earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Bouchon, Michel; Karabulut, Hayrullah

    2008-06-01

    Recent studies show that earthquake faults may rupture at speeds exceeding the shear wave velocity of rocks. This supershear rupture produces in the ground a seismic shock wave similar to the sonic boom produced by a supersonic airplane. This shock wave may increase the destruction caused by the earthquake. We report that supershear earthquakes are characterized by a specific pattern of aftershocks: The fault plane itself is remarkably quiet whereas aftershocks cluster off the fault, on secondary structures that are activated by the supershear rupture. The post-earthquake quiescence of the fault shows that friction is relatively uniform over supershear segments, whereas the activation of off-fault structures is explained by the shock wave radiation, which produces high stresses over a wide zone surrounding the fault.

  9. Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock.

    PubMed

    Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2013-01-01

    Forecasting the aftershock probability has been performed by the authorities to mitigate hazards in the disaster area after a main shock. However, despite the fact that most of large aftershocks occur within a day from the main shock, the operational forecasting has been very difficult during this time-period due to incomplete recording of early aftershocks. Here we propose a real-time method for efficiently forecasting the occurrence rates of potential aftershocks using systematically incomplete observations that are available in a few hours after the main shocks. We demonstrate the method's utility by retrospective early forecasting of the aftershock activity of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake of M9.0 in Japan. Furthermore, we compare the results by the real-time data with the compiled preliminary data to examine robustness of the present method for the aftershocks of a recent inland earthquake in Japan.

  10. Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock

    PubMed Central

    Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2013-01-01

    Forecasting the aftershock probability has been performed by the authorities to mitigate hazards in the disaster area after a main shock. However, despite the fact that most of large aftershocks occur within a day from the main shock, the operational forecasting has been very difficult during this time-period due to incomplete recording of early aftershocks. Here we propose a real-time method for efficiently forecasting the occurrence rates of potential aftershocks using systematically incomplete observations that are available in a few hours after the main shocks. We demonstrate the method's utility by retrospective early forecasting of the aftershock activity of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake of M9.0 in Japan. Furthermore, we compare the results by the real-time data with the compiled preliminary data to examine robustness of the present method for the aftershocks of a recent inland earthquake in Japan. PMID:23860594

  11. Triggering of earthquake aftershocks by dynamic stresses

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilb, Debi; Gomberg, J.; Bodin, P.

    2000-01-01

    It is thought that small 'static' stress changes due to permanent fault displacement can alter the likelihood of, or trigger, earthquakes on nearby faults. Many studies of triggering in the nearfield, particularly of aftershocks, rely on these static changes as the triggering agent and consider them only in terms of equivalent changes in the applied load on the fault. Here we report a comparison of the aftershock pattern of the moment magnitude MW = 7.3 Landers earthquake, not only with static stress changes but also with transient, oscillatory stress changes transmitted as seismic waves (that is, 'dynamic' stresses). Dynamic stresses do not permanently change the applied load and thus can trigger earthquakes only by altering the mechanical state or properties of the fault zone. These dynamically weakened faults may fail after the seismic waves have passed by, and might even cause earthquakes that would not otherwise have occurred. We find similar asymmetries in the aftershock and dynamic stress patterns, the latter being due to rupture propagation, whereas the static stress changes lack this asymmetry. Previous studies have shown that dynamic stresses can promote failure at remote distances, but here we show that they can also do so nearby.

  12. Triggering of earthquake aftershocks by dynamic stresses.

    PubMed

    Kilb, D; Gomberg, J; Bodin, P

    2000-11-30

    It is thought that small 'static' stress changes due to permanent fault displacement can alter the likelihood of, or trigger, earthquakes on nearby faults. Many studies of triggering in the near-field, particularly of aftershocks, rely on these static changes as the triggering agent and consider them only in terms of equivalent changes in the applied load on the fault. Here we report a comparison of the aftershock pattern of the moment magnitude Mw = 7.3 Landers earthquake, not only with static stress changes but also with transient, oscillatory stress changes transmitted as seismic waves (that is, 'dynamic' stresses). Dynamic stresses do not permanently change the applied load and thus can trigger earthquakes only by altering the mechanical state or properties of the fault zone. These dynamically weakened faults may fail after the seismic waves have passed by, and might even cause earthquakes that would not otherwise have occurred. We find similar asymmetries in the aftershock and dynamic stress patterns, the latter being due to rupture propagation, whereas the static stress changes lack this asymmetry. Previous studies have shown that dynamic stresses can promote failure at remote distances, but here we show that they can also do so nearby.

  13. Do aftershock probabilities decay with time?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    So, do aftershock probabilities decay with time? Consider a thought experiment in which we are at the time of the mainshock and ask how many aftershocks will occur a day, week, month, year, or even a century from now. First we must decide how large a window to use around each point in time. Let's assume that, as we go further into the future, we are asking a less precise question. Perhaps a day from now means 1 day 10% of a day, a week from now means 1 week 10% of a week, and so on. If we ignore c because it is a small fraction of a day (e.g., Reasenberg and Jones, 1989, hereafter RJ89), and set p = 1 because it is usually close to 1 (its value in the original Omori law), then the rate of earthquakes (K=t) decays at 1=t. If the length of the windows being considered increases proportionally to t, then the number of earthquakes at any time from now is the same because the rate decrease is canceled by the increase in the window duration. Under these conditions we should never think "It's a bit late for this to be an aftershock."

  14. Static stress triggering explains the empirical aftershock distance decay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hainzl, Sebastian; Moradpour, Javad; Davidsen, Jörn

    2014-12-01

    The shape of the spatial aftershock decay is sensitive to the triggering mechanism and thus particularly useful for discriminating between static and dynamic stress triggering. For California seismicity, it has been recently recognized that its form is more complicated than typically assumed consisting of three different regimes with transitions at the scale of the rupture length and the thickness of the crust. The intermediate distance range is characterized by a relative small decay exponent of 1.35 previously declared to relate to dynamic stress triggering. We perform comprehensive simulations of a simple clock-advance model, in which the number of aftershocks is just proportional to the Coulomb-stress change, to test whether the empirical result can be explained by static stress triggering. Similarly to the observations, the results show three scaling regimes. For simulations adapted to the depths and focal mechanisms observed in California, we find a remarkable agreement with the observation over the whole distance range for a fault distribution with fractal dimension of 1.8, which is shown to be in good agreement with an independent analysis of California seismicity.

  15. Improved understanding of aftershock triggering by waveform detection of aftershocks with GPU computing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Z.; Meng, X.; Hong, B.; Yu, X.

    2012-12-01

    Large shallow earthquakes are generally followed by increased seismic activities around the mainshock rupture zone, known as "aftershocks". Whether static or dynamic triggering is responsible for triggering aftershocks is still in debate. However, aftershocks listed in standard earthquake catalogs are generally incomplete immediately after the mainshock, which may result in inaccurate estimation of seismic rate changes. Recent studies have used waveforms of existing earthquakes as templates to scan through continuous waveforms to detect potential missing aftershocks, which is termed 'matched filter technique'. However, this kind of data mining is computationally intensive, which raises new challenges when applying to large data sets with tens of thousands of templates, hundreds of seismic stations and years of continuous waveforms. The waveform matched filter technique exhibits parallelism at multiple levels, which allows us to use GPU-based computation to achieve significant acceleration. By dividing the procedure into several routines and processing them in parallel, we have achieved ~40 times speedup for one Nvidia GPU card compared to sequential CPU code, and further scaled the code to multiple GPUs. We apply this paralleled code to detect potential missing aftershocks around the 2003 Mw 6.5 San Simeon and 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield earthquakes in Central California, and around the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in southern California. In all these cases, we can detect several tens of times more earthquakes immediately after the mainshocks as compared with those listed in the catalogs. These newly identified earthquakes are revealing new information about the physical mechanisms responsible for triggering aftershocks in the near field. We plan to improve our code so that it can be executed in large-scale GPU clusters. Our work has the long-term goal of developing scalable methods for seismic data analysis in the context of "Big Data" challenges.

  16. Increasing lengths of aftershock zones with depths of moderate-size earthquakes on the San Jacinto Fault suggests triggering of deep creep in the middle crust

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Xiaofeng; Peng, Zhigang

    2016-01-01

    Recent geodetic studies along the San Jacinto Fault (SJF) in southern California revealed a shallower locking depth than the seismogenic depth outlined by microseismicity. This disagreement leads to speculations that creeping episodes drive seismicity in the lower part of the seismogenic zone. Whether deep creep occurs along the SJF holds key information on how fault slips during earthquake cycle and potential seismic hazard imposed to southern California. Here we apply a matched filter technique to 10 M > 4 earthquake sequences along the SJF since 2000 and obtain more complete earthquake catalogues. We then systematic investigate spatio-temporal evolutions of these aftershock sequences. We find anomalously large aftershock zones for earthquakes occurred below the geodetically inferred locking depth (i.e. 11-12 km), while aftershock zones of shallower main shocks are close to expectations from standard scaling relationships. Although we do not observe clear migration of aftershocks, most aftershock zones do expand systematically with logarithmic time since the main shock. All the evidences suggest that aftershocks near or below the locking depth are likely driven by deep creep following the main shock. The presence of a creeping zone below 11-12 km may have significant implications on the maximum sizes of events in this region.

  17. Joint inversion of teleseismic body-waves and geodetic data for the Mw6.8 aftershock of the Balochistan earthquake with refined epicenter location

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, S.; Wang, T.; Jonsson, S.; Avouac, J. P.; Helmberger, D. V.

    2014-12-01

    Aftershocks of the 2013 Balochistan earthquake are mainly concentrated along the northeastern end of the mainshock rupture despite of much larger coseismic slip to the southwest. The largest event among them is an Mw6.8 earthquake which occurred three days after the mainshock. A kinematic slip model of the mainshock was obtained by joint inversion of the teleseismic body-waves and horizontal static deformation field derived from remote sensing optical and SAR data, which is composed of seven fault segments with gradually changing strikes and dips [Avouac et al., 2014]. The remote sensing data provide well constraints on the fault geometry and spatial distribution of slip but no timing information. Meanwhile, the initiation of the teleseismic waveform is very sensitive to fault geometry of the epicenter segment (strike and dip) and spatial slip distribution but much less sensitive to the absolute location of the epicenter. The combination of the two data sets allows a much better determination of the absolute epicenter location, which is about 25km to the southwest of the NEIC epicenter location. The well located mainshock epicenter is used to establish path calibrations for teleseismic P-waves, which are essential for relocating the Mw6.8 aftershock. Our grid search shows that the refined epicenter is located right at the northeastern end of the mainshock rupture. This is confirmed by the SAR offsets calculated from images acquired after the mainshock. The azimuth and range offsets display a discontinuity across the rupture trace of the mainshock. Teleseismic only and static only, as well as joint inversions all indicate that the aftershock ruptured an asperity with 25km along strike and range from 8km to 20km in depth. The earthquake was originated in a positive Coulomb stress change regime due to the mainshock and has complementary slip distribution to the mainshock rupture at the northeastern end, suggesting that the entire seismic generic zone in the crust was

  18. Local near instantaneously dynamically triggered aftershocks of large earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Wenyuan; Shearer, Peter M.

    2016-09-01

    Aftershocks are often triggered by static- and/or dynamic-stress changes caused by mainshocks. The relative importance of the two triggering mechanisms is controversial at near-to-intermediate distances. We detected and located 48 previously unidentified large early aftershocks triggered by earthquakes with magnitudes between ≥7 and 8 within a few fault lengths (approximately 300 kilometers), during times that high-amplitude surface waves arrive from the mainshock (less than 200 seconds). The observations indicate that near-to-intermediate-field dynamic triggering commonly exists and fundamentally promotes aftershock occurrence. The mainshocks and their nearby early aftershocks are located at major subduction zones and continental boundaries, and mainshocks with all types of faulting-mechanisms (normal, reverse, and strike-slip) can trigger early aftershocks.

  19. Local near instantaneously dynamically triggered aftershocks of large earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Fan, Wenyuan; Shearer, Peter M

    2016-09-01

    Aftershocks are often triggered by static- and/or dynamic-stress changes caused by mainshocks. The relative importance of the two triggering mechanisms is controversial at near-to-intermediate distances. We detected and located 48 previously unidentified large early aftershocks triggered by earthquakes with magnitudes between ≥7 and 8 within a few fault lengths (approximately 300 kilometers), during times that high-amplitude surface waves arrive from the mainshock (less than 200 seconds). The observations indicate that near-to-intermediate-field dynamic triggering commonly exists and fundamentally promotes aftershock occurrence. The mainshocks and their nearby early aftershocks are located at major subduction zones and continental boundaries, and mainshocks with all types of faulting-mechanisms (normal, reverse, and strike-slip) can trigger early aftershocks.

  20. Local near instantaneously dynamically triggered aftershocks of large earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Fan, Wenyuan; Shearer, Peter M

    2016-09-01

    Aftershocks are often triggered by static- and/or dynamic-stress changes caused by mainshocks. The relative importance of the two triggering mechanisms is controversial at near-to-intermediate distances. We detected and located 48 previously unidentified large early aftershocks triggered by earthquakes with magnitudes between ≥7 and 8 within a few fault lengths (approximately 300 kilometers), during times that high-amplitude surface waves arrive from the mainshock (less than 200 seconds). The observations indicate that near-to-intermediate-field dynamic triggering commonly exists and fundamentally promotes aftershock occurrence. The mainshocks and their nearby early aftershocks are located at major subduction zones and continental boundaries, and mainshocks with all types of faulting-mechanisms (normal, reverse, and strike-slip) can trigger early aftershocks. PMID:27609887

  1. Aftershocks halted by static stress shadows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S.; Beroza, Gregory C.; Marsan, David

    2012-06-01

    Earthquakes impart static and dynamic stress changes to the surrounding crust. Sudden fault slip causes small but permanent--static--stress changes, and passing seismic waves cause large, but brief and oscillatory--dynamic--stress changes. Because both static and dynamic stresses can trigger earthquakes within several rupture dimensions of a mainshock, it has proven difficult to disentangle their contributions to the triggering process. However, only dynamic stress can trigger earthquakes far from the source, and only static stress can create stress shadows, where the stress and thus the seismicity rate in the shadow area drops following an earthquake. Here we calculate the stress imparted by the magnitude 6.1 Joshua Tree and nearby magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquakes that occurred in California in April and June 1992, respectively, and measure seismicity through time. We show that, where the aftershock zone of the first earthquake was subjected to a static stress increase from the second, the seismicity rate jumped. In contrast, where the aftershock zone of the first earthquake fell under the stress shadow of the second and static stress dropped, seismicity shut down. The arrest of seismicity implies that static stress is a requisite element of spatial clustering of large earthquakes and should be a constituent of hazard assessment.

  2. 3D imaging of crustal structure under the Piedmont province in central Virginia, from reflection RVSP processing of aftershock recordings from the August 23, 2011 Virginia earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quiros, D. A.; Brown, L. D.; Cabolova, A.; Davenport, K. K.; Hole, J. A.; Mooney, W. D.

    2013-12-01

    Aftershocks from the magnitude Mw 5.8 August 23, 2011, central Virginia earthquake were recorded using an unusually dense array of seismometers in what has been termed an AIDA (Aftershock Imaging with Dense Arrays) deployment. Over 200 stations were deployed in the epicentral region of this event to a) more precisely determine hypocentral locations, b) more accurately define velocity structure in the aftershock zone, c) characterize propagation characteristics of the crust in the area, and d) image geologic structures in the hypocentral volume with reflection techniques using aftershocks as sources. The AIDA-Virginia experiment successfully recorded a large number of aftershocks from which local tomographic velocity estimates and accurate hypocentral locations were obtained. These results facilitated the use of aftershocks as sources for reflection imaging. In this study we demonstrate how earthquake sources recorded by surface arrays can be treated using the imaging techniques associated with Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP), in particular a variant known as Reverse VSP (RVSP). The central VSP processing algorithms used for this study are VSP normal moveout (VSPnmo) and VSP-to-Common Reflection Point (CRP). Applying these techniques to individual aftershocks from the Virginia experiment results in 3D reflection images of structural complexity in the immediate vicinity of the aftershocks. The most prominent feature observed on these 3D images is a strong moderately east-dipping reflector at a depth of approximately 6 to 8 km that directly underlies, and is continuous beneath, the more steeply dipping aftershock zone. We interpret this reflector as part of a complex imbricate thrust sequence associated with Paleozoic convergence during the Appalachian orogeny. Its apparent continuity beneath the fault zone implied by the aftershock's hypocenters suggests that this inferred fault zone has little or no cumulative offset, supporting the speculation that this event

  3. Stress loading from viscous flow in the lower crust and triggering of aftershocks following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Deng, J.; Hudnut, K.; Gurnis, M.; Hauksson, E.

    1999-01-01

    Following the M(w) 6.7 Northridge earthquake, significant postseismic displacements were resolved with GPS. Using a three-dimensional viscoelastic model, we suggest that this deformation is mainly driven by viscous flow in the lower crust. Such flow can transfer stress to the upper crust and load the rupture zone of the main shock at a decaying rate. Most aftershocks within the rupture zone, especially those that occurred after the first several weeks of the main shock, may have been triggered by continuous stress loading from viscous flow. The long-term decay time of aftershocks (about 2 years) approximately matches the decay of viscoelastic loading, and thus is controlled by the viscosity of the lower crust. Our model provides a physical interpretation of the observed correlation between aftershock decay rate and surface heat flow.Following the Mw 6.7 Northridge earthquake, significant postseismic displacements were resolved with GPS. Using a three-dimensional viscoelastic model, we suggest that this deformation is mainly driven by viscous flow in the lower crust. Such flow can transfer stress to the upper crust and load the rupture zone of the main shock at a decaying rate. Most aftershocks within the rupture zone, especially those that occurred after the first several weeks of the main shock, may have been triggered by continuous stress loading from viscous flow. The long-term decay time of aftershocks (about 2 years) approximately matches the decay of viscoelastic loading, and thus is controlled by the viscosity of the lower crust. Our model provides a physical interpretation of the observed correlation between aftershock decay rate and surface heat flow.

  4. Foreshocks and aftershocks locations of the 2014 Pisagua, N. Chile earthquake: history of a megathrust earthquake nucleation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuenzalida Velasco, Amaya; Rietbrock, Andreas; Tavera, Hernando; Ryder, Isabelle; Ruiz, Sergio; Thomas, Reece; De Angelis, Silvio; Bondoux, Francis

    2015-04-01

    The April 2014 Mw 8.1 Pisagua earthquake occurred in the Northern Chile seismic gap: a region of the South American subduction zone lying between Arica city and the Mejillones Peninsula. It is believed that this part of the subduction zone has not experienced a large earthquake since 1877. Thanks to the identification of this seismic gap, the north of Chile was well instrumented before the Pisagua earthquake, including the Integrated Plate boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC) network and the Chilean local network installed by the Centro Sismologico Nacional (CSN). These instruments were able to record the full foreshock and aftershock sequences, allowing a unique opportunity to study the nucleation process of large megathrust earthquakes. To improve azimuthal coverage of the Pisagua seismic sequence, after the earthquake, in collaboration with the Instituto Geofisico del Peru (IGP) we installed a temporary seismic network in south of Peru. The network comprised 12 short-period stations located in the coastal area between Moquegua and Tacna and they were operative from 1st May 2014. We also installed three stations on the slopes of the Ticsiani volcano to monitor any possible change in volcanic activity following the Pisagua earthquake. In this work we analysed the continuous seismic data recorded by CSN and IPOC networks from 1 March to 30 June to obtain the catalogue of the sequence, including foreshocks and aftershocks. Using an automatic algorithm based in STA/LTA we obtained the picks for P and S waves. Association in time and space defined the events and computed an initial location using Hypo71 and the 1D local velocity model. More than 11,000 events were identified with this method for the whole period, but we selected the best resolved events that include more than 7 observed arrivals with at least 2 S picks of them, to relocate these events using NonLinLoc software. For the main events of the sequence we carefully estimate event locations and we obtained

  5. Estimates of velocity structure and source depth using multiple P waves from aftershocks of the 1987 Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills, California, earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mori, J.

    1991-01-01

    Event record sections, which are constructed by plotting seismograms from many closely spaced earthquakes recorded on a few stations, show multiple free-surface reflections (PP, PPP, PPPP) of the P wave in the Imperial Valley. The relative timing of these arrivals is used to estimate the strength of the P-wave velocity gradient within the upper 5 km of the sediment layer. Consistent with previous studies, a velocity model with a value of 1.8 km/sec at the surface increasing linearly to 5.8 km/sec at a depth of 5.5 km fits the data well. The relative amplitudes of the P and PP arrivals are used to estimate the source depth for the aftershock distributions of the Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills main shocks. Although the depth determination has large uncertainties, both the Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills aftershock sequencs appear to have similar depth distribution in the range of 4 to 10 km. -Author

  6. Delineating complex spatiotemporal distribution of earthquake aftershocks: an improved Source-Scanning Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Yen-Che; Kao, Honn; Rosenberger, Andreas; Hsu, Shu-Kun; Huang, Bor-Shouh

    2012-06-01

    Conventional earthquake location methods depend critically on the correct identification of seismic phases and their arrival times from seismograms. Accurate phase picking is particularly difficult for aftershocks that occur closely in time and space, mostly because of the ambiguity of correlating the same phase at different stations. In this study, we introduce an improved Source-Scanning Algorithm (ISSA) for the purpose of delineating the complex distribution of aftershocks without time-consuming and labour-intensive phase-picking procedures. The improvements include the application of a ground motion analyser to separate P and S waves, the automatic adjustment of time windows for 'brightness' calculation based on the scanning resolution and a modified brightness function to combine constraints from multiple phases. Synthetic experiments simulating a challenging scenario are conducted to demonstrate the robustness of the ISSA. The method is applied to a field data set selected from the ocean-bottom-seismograph records of an offshore aftershock sequence southwest of Taiwan. Although visual inspection of the seismograms is ambiguous, our ISSA analysis clearly delineates two events that can best explain the observed waveform pattern.

  7. Simultaneous estimation of b-values and detection rates of earthquakes for the application to aftershock probability forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katsura, K.; Ogata, Y.

    2004-12-01

    Reasenberg and Jones [Science, 1989, 1994] proposed the aftershock probability forecasting based on the joint distribution [Utsu, J. Fac. Sci. Hokkaido Univ., 1970] of the modified Omori formula of aftershock decay and Gutenberg-Richter law of magnitude frequency, where the respective parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method [Ogata, J. Phys. Earth, 1983; Utsu, Geophys Bull. Hokkaido Univ., 1965, Aki, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., 1965]. The public forecast has been implemented by the responsible agencies in California and Japan. However, a considerable difficulty in the above procedure is that, due to the contamination of arriving seismic waves, detection rate of aftershocks is extremely low during a period immediately after the main shock, say, during the first day, when the forecasting is most critical for public in the affected area. Therefore, for the forecasting of a probability during such a period, they adopt a generic model with a set of the standard parameter values in California or Japan. For an effective and realistic estimation, I propose to utilize the statistical model introduced by Ogata and Katsura [Geophys. J. Int., 1993] for the simultaneous estimation of the b-values of Gutenberg-Richter law together with detection-rate (probability) of earthquakes of each magnitude-band from the provided data of all detected events, where the both parameters are allowed for changing in time. Thus, by using all detected aftershocks from the beginning of the period, we can estimate the underlying modified Omori rate of both detected and undetected events and their b-value changes, taking the time-varying missing rates of events into account. The similar computation is applied to the ETAS model for complex aftershock activity or regional seismicity where substantial missing events are expected immediately after a large aftershock or another strong earthquake in the vicinity. Demonstrations of the present procedure will be shown for the recent examples

  8. Identification of a major segment boundary between two megathrust subduction zone earthquakes from aftershock seismicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobiesiak, M.; Victor, P.; Eggert, S.

    2009-04-01

    Aftershock seismicity is commonly used to characterize the extent of rupture planes of megathrust earthquakes. From unique datasets, covering the two adjacent fault planes of the Mw 8.0, 1995, Antofagasta and the Mw 7.7, 2007, Tocopilla earthquakes, we were able to identify a segment boundary (SB), located beneath Mejillones Peninsula. This segment boundary hosted the onset of the Antofagasta rupture and constituted the end of the Tocopilla rupture plane. The data recorded during the mission of the German Task Force for Earthquakes after the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake is supporting our observations regarding the northern part of the SB. 34 seismological stations registered the aftershocks from November 2007 until May 2008. First hypocenter determinations show that the aftershock sequences of both events meet along this E-W oriented segment boundary. The segment boundary is furthermore conformed by the historic record of megathrust events. Evidence for long term persistency of this SB comes from geological observations as differential uplift rates across the boundary and different fault patterns. Geomorpholocical analysis defines a topographic anomaly ~ 20 km wide and oriented along strike the SB..The main shock hypocenter determinations (NEIC, local network, ISC) which are related to the start of the rupture are all located in this zone. The SB is further characterized by intermediate b-values derived from a spatial b-value study of the Antofagasta fault plane and hosts several elongated clusters of aftershock seismicity. A detailed study of the focal mechanism solutions in one of these clusters showed a number of aligned strike slip events with one E-W striking nodal plane having a strike angle which is similar to the angle of subduction obliquity of the oceanic Nazca plate in this area. In further investigations we will search for detailed information on the nature and dynamics of processes along such a segment boundary, their meaning for the initiation of large

  9. Aftershocks of the western Argentina (Caucete) earthquake of 23 November 1977: some tectonic implications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langer, C.J.; Bollinger, G.A.

    1988-01-01

    An aftershock survey, using a network of eight portable and two permanent seismographs, was conducted for the western Argentina (Caucete) earthquake (MS 7.3) of November 23, 1977. Monitoring began December 6, almost 2 weeks after the main shock and continued for 11 days. The data set includes 185 aftershock hypocenters that range in the depth from near surface to more than 30 km. The spatial distribution of those events occupied a volume of about 100 km long ??50 km wide ??30 km thick. The volumnar nature of the aftershock distribution is interpreted to be a result of a bimodal distribution of foci that define east- and west-dipping planar zones. Efforts to select which of those zones was associated with the causal faulting include special attention to the determination of the mainshock focal depth and dislocation theory modeling of the coseismic surface deformation in the epicentral region. Our focal depth (25-35 km) and modeling studies lead us to prefer an east-dipping plane as causal. A previous interpretation by other investigators used a shallower focal depth (17 km) and similar modeling calculations in choosing a west-dipping plane. Our selection of the east-dipping plane is physically more appealing because it places fault initiation at the base of the crustal seismogenic layer (rather than in the middle of that layer) which requires fault propagation to be updip (rather than downdip). ?? 1988.

  10. Distribution of similar earthquakes in aftershocks of inland earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayashi, M.; Hiramatsu, Y.; Aftershock Observations Of 2007 Noto Hanto, G.

    2010-12-01

    Frictional properties control the slip behavior on a fault surface such as seismic slip and aseismic slip. Asperity, as a seismic slip area, is characterized by a strong coupling in the interseismic period and large coseismic slip. On the other hand, steady slip or afterslip occurs in an aseismic slip area around the asperity. If an afterslip area includes small asperities, a repeating rupture of single asperity can generate similar earthquakes due to the stress accumulation caused by the afterslip. We here investigate a detail distribution of similar earthquakes in the aftershocks of the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake (Mjma 6.9) and the 2000 Western Tottori earthquake (Mjma 7.3), inland large earthquakes in Japan. We use the data obtained by the group for the aftershock observations of the 2007 Noto Hanto Earthquake and by the group for the aftershock observations of the 2000 Western Tottori earthquake. First, we select pairs of aftershocks whose cross correlation coefficients in 10 s time window of band-pass filtered waveforms of 1~4 Hz are greater than 0.95 at more than 5 stations and divide those into groups by a link of the cross correlation coefficients. Second, we reexamine the arrival times of P and S waves and the maximum amplitude for earthquakes of each group and apply the double-difference method (Waldhouser and Ellsworth, 2000) to relocate them. As a result of the analysis, we find 24 groups of similar earthquakes in the aftershocks on the source fault of the 2007 Noto Hanto Earthquake and 86 groups of similar earthquakes in the aftershocks on the source fault of the 2000 Western Tottori Earthquake. Most of them are distributed around or outside the asperity of the main shock. Geodetic studies reported that postseismic deformation was detected for the both earthquakes (Sagiya et al., 2002; Hashimoto et al., 2008). The source area of similar earthquakes seems to correspond to the afterslip area. These features suggest that the similar earthquakes observed

  11. Comparison of Short-term and Long-term Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Helmstetter, A.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2004-12-01

    Many earthquakes are triggered in part by preceding events. Aftershocks are the most obvious examples, but many large earthquakes are preceded by smaller ones. The large fluctuations of seismicity rate due to earthquake interactions thus provide a way to improve earthquake forecasting significantly. We have developed a model to estimate daily earthquake probabilities in Southern California, using the Epidemic Type Earthquake Sequence model [Kagan and Knopoff, 1987; Ogata, 1988]. The forecasted seismicity rate is the sum of a constant external loading and of the aftershocks of all past earthquakes. The background rate is estimated by smoothing past seismicity. Each earthquake triggers aftershocks with a rate that increases exponentially with its magnitude and which decreases with time following Omori's law. We use an isotropic kernel to model the spatial distribution of aftershocks for small (M≤5.5) mainshocks, and a smoothing of the location of early aftershocks for larger mainshocks. The model also assumes that all earthquake magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter law with a unifom b-value. We use a maximum likelihood method to estimate the model parameters and tests the short-term and long-term forecasts. A retrospective test using a daily update of the forecasts between 1985/1/1 and 2004/3/10 shows that the short-term model decreases the uncertainty of an earthquake occurrence by a factor of about 10.

  12. Aftershocks are well aligned with the background stress field, contradicting the hypothesis of highly-heterogeneous crustal stress

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

    2010-01-01

    It has been proposed that the crustal stress field contains small-length-scale heterogeneity of much larger amplitude than the uniform background stress. This model predicts that earthquake focal mechanisms should reflect the loading stress rather than the uniform background stress. So, if the heterogeneous stress hypothesis is correct, focal mechanisms before and after a large earthquake should align with the tectonic loading and the earthquake-induced static stress perturbation, respectively. However, I show that the off-fault triggered aftershocks of the 1992 M7.3 Landers, California, earthquake align with the same stress field as the pre-Landers mechanisms. The aftershocks occurred on faults that were well oriented for failure in the pre-Landers stress field and then loaded by the Landers-induced static stress change. Aftershocks in regions experiencing a 0.05 to 5 MPa coseismic differential stress change align with the modeled Landers-induced static stress change, implying that they were triggered by the stress perturbation. Contrary to the heterogeneous stress hypothesis, these triggered aftershocks are also well aligned with the pre-Landers stress field obtained from inverting the pre-Landers focal mechanisms. Therefore, the inverted pre-Landers stress must represent the persistent background stress field. Earthquake focal mechanisms provide an unbiased sample of the spatially coherent background stress field, which is large relative to any small-scale stress heterogeneity. The counterexample provided by the Landers earthquake is strong evidence that the heterogeneous stress model is not widely applicable.

  13. Teleseismic Body Wave Analysis for the 27 September 2003 Altai, Earthquake (Mw7.4) and Large Aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomez-Gonzalez, J. M.; Mellors, R.

    2007-05-01

    We investigate the kinematics of the rupture process for the September 27, 2003, Mw7.3, Altai earthquake and its associated large aftershocks. This is the largest earthquake striking the Altai mountains within the last 50 years, which provides important constraints on the ongoing tectonics. The fault plane solution obtained by teleseismic body waveform modeling indicated a predominantly strike-slip event (strike=130, dip=75, rake 170), Scalar moment for the main shock ranges from 0.688 to 1.196E+20 N m, a source duration of about 20 to 42 s, and an average centroid depth of 10 km. Source duration would indicate a fault length of about 130 - 270 km. The main shock was followed closely by two aftershocks (Mw5.7, Mw6.4) occurred the same day, another aftershock (Mw6.7) occurred on 1 October , 2003. We also modeled the second aftershock (Mw6.4) to asses geometric similarities during their respective rupture process. This aftershock occurred spatially very close to the mainshock and possesses a similar fault plane solution (strike=128, dip=71, rake=154), and centroid depth (13 km). Several local conditions, such as the crustal model and fault geometry, affect the correct estimation of some source parameters. We perfume a sensitivity evaluation of several parameters, including centroid depth, scalar moment and source duration, based on a point and finite source modeling. The point source approximation results are the departure parameters for the finite source exploration. We evaluate the different reported parameters to discard poor constrained models. In addition, deformation data acquired by InSAR are also included in the analysis.

  14. Diversity of the 2014 Iquique's foreshocks and aftershocks: clues about the complex rupture process of a Mw 8.1 earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    León-Ríos, Sergio; Ruiz, Sergio; Maksymowicz, Andrei; Leyton, Felipe; Fuenzalida, Amaya; Madariaga, Raúl

    2016-03-01

    We study the foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1 April 2014 Iquique earthquake of Mw 8.1. Most of these events were recorded by a large digital seismic network that included the Northern Chile permanent network and up to 26 temporary broadband digital stations. We relocated and computed moment tensors for 151 events of magnitude Mw ≥ 4.5. Most of the foreshocks and aftershocks of the Iquique earthquake are distributed to the southwest of the rupture zone. These events are located in a band of about 50 km from the trench, an area where few earthquakes occur elsewhere in Chile. Another important group of aftershocks is located above the plate interface, similar to those observed during the foreshock sequence. The depths of these events were constrained by regional moment tensor (RMT) solutions obtained using the records of the dense broad band network. The majority of the foreshocks and aftershocks were associated to the interplate contact, with dip and strike angles in good agreement with the characteristics of horst and graben structures (>2000 m offset) typical of the oceanic Nazca Plate at the trench and in the outer rise region. We propose that the spatial distribution of foreshocks and aftershocks, and its seismological characteristics were strongly controlled by the rheological and tectonics conditions of the extreme erosive margin of Northern Chile.

  15. Thermodynamics-based models of transcriptional regulation with gene sequence.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shuqiang; Shen, Yanyan; Hu, Jinxing

    2015-12-01

    Quantitative models of gene regulatory activity have the potential to improve our mechanistic understanding of transcriptional regulation. However, the few models available today have been based on simplistic assumptions about the sequences being modeled or heuristic approximations of the underlying regulatory mechanisms. In this work, we have developed a thermodynamics-based model to predict gene expression driven by any DNA sequence. The proposed model relies on a continuous time, differential equation description of transcriptional dynamics. The sequence features of the promoter are exploited to derive the binding affinity which is derived based on statistical molecular thermodynamics. Experimental results show that the proposed model can effectively identify the activity levels of transcription factors and the regulatory parameters. Comparing with the previous models, the proposed model can reveal more biological sense.

  16. Modeling genome coverage in single-cell sequencing

    PubMed Central

    Daley, Timothy; Smith, Andrew D.

    2014-01-01

    Motivation: Single-cell DNA sequencing is necessary for examining genetic variation at the cellular level, which remains hidden in bulk sequencing experiments. But because they begin with such small amounts of starting material, the amount of information that is obtained from single-cell sequencing experiment is highly sensitive to the choice of protocol employed and variability in library preparation. In particular, the fraction of the genome represented in single-cell sequencing libraries exhibits extreme variability due to quantitative biases in amplification and loss of genetic material. Results: We propose a method to predict the genome coverage of a deep sequencing experiment using information from an initial shallow sequencing experiment mapped to a reference genome. The observed coverage statistics are used in a non-parametric empirical Bayes Poisson model to estimate the gain in coverage from deeper sequencing. This approach allows researchers to know statistical features of deep sequencing experiments without actually sequencing deeply, providing a basis for optimizing and comparing single-cell sequencing protocols or screening libraries. Availability and implementation: The method is available as part of the preseq software package. Source code is available at http://smithlabresearch.org/preseq. Contact: andrewds@usc.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary material is available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:25107873

  17. Analysis of rupture area of aftershocks caused by twin earthquakes (Case study: 11 April 2012 earthquakes of Aceh-North Sumatra)

    SciTech Connect

    Diansari, Angga Vertika Purwana, Ibnu; Subakti, Hendri

    2015-04-24

    The 11 April 2012 earthquakes off-shore Aceh-North Sumatra are unique events for the history of Indonesian earthquake. It is unique because that they have similar magnitude, 8.5 Mw and 8.1 Mw; close to epicenter distance, similar strike-slip focal mechanism, and occuring in outer rise area. The purposes of this research are: (1) comparing area of earthquakes base on models and that of calculation, (2) fitting the shape and the area of earthquake rupture zones, (3) analyzing the relationship between rupture area and magnitude of the earthquakes. Rupture area of the earthquake fault are determined by using 4 different formulas, i.e. Utsu and Seki (1954), Wells and Coppersmith (1994), Ellsworth (2003), and Christophersen and Smith (2000). The earthquakes aftershock parameters are taken from PGN (PusatGempabumiNasional or National Earthquake Information Center) of BMKG (Indonesia Agency Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics). The aftershock epicenters are plotted by GMT’s software. After that, ellipse and rectangular models of aftershock spreading are made. The results show that: (1) rupture areas were calculated using magnitude relationship which are larger than the the aftershock distributions model, (2) the best fitting model for that earthquake aftershock distribution is rectangular associated with Utsu and Seki (1954) formula, (3) the larger the magnitude of the earthquake, the larger area of the fault.

  18. Aftershocks Following the 9 April 2013 Bushehr Earthquake, Iran

    PubMed Central

    Ardalan, Ali; Hajiuni, Alireza; Zare, Mehdi

    2013-01-01

    On 9 April 2013 at 11:52 UTC (16:22 local time), a Mw 6.2 earthquake occurred at the depth of 20 Km in Dashti district in south-west Iran’s Bushehr province. The macroseismic epicenter was located nearby the city of Shonbeh. During one month after the earthquake, a total of 282 aftershocks hit the epicentral region, mostly at the east and north sides. They ranged from 2.5 to 5.7 on the Richter scale. Seventy aftershocks (24.9%) were M4.0-4.9 and eight (2.8%) were M5.0-5.7. Aftershocks are potentially able to do additional damage. In Bushehr earthquake, a M5.4 aftershock on 10 April in Chahgah village caused at least four injuries and destruction of several buildings that had been already damaged by the main shock. Knowledge about the aftershock induced damages provides opportunities for timely risk communication with the affected people and for long term community education. This will hopefully increase the community awareness and minimize the risk of further loss of lives. PMID:24042232

  19. Aftershocks following the 9 april 2013 bushehr earthquake, iran.

    PubMed

    Ardalan, Ali; Hajiuni, Alireza; Zare, Mehdi

    2013-08-28

    On 9 April 2013 at 11:52 UTC (16:22 local time), a Mw 6.2 earthquake occurred at the depth of 20 Km in Dashti district in south-west Iran's Bushehr province. The macroseismic epicenter was located nearby the city of Shonbeh. During one month after the earthquake, a total of 282 aftershocks hit the epicentral region, mostly at the east and north sides. They ranged from 2.5 to 5.7 on the Richter scale. Seventy aftershocks (24.9%) were M4.0-4.9 and eight (2.8%) were M5.0-5.7. Aftershocks are potentially able to do additional damage. In Bushehr earthquake, a M5.4 aftershock on 10 April in Chahgah village caused at least four injuries and destruction of several buildings that had been already damaged by the main shock. Knowledge about the aftershock induced damages provides opportunities for timely risk communication with the affected people and for long term community education. This will hopefully increase the community awareness and minimize the risk of further loss of lives.

  20. Kinematic rupture process of the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake and its main aftershocks from teleseismic and strong-motion data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peyrat, S.; Madariaga, R.; Buforn, E.; Campos, J.; Asch, G.; Vilotte, J. P.

    2010-09-01

    We study a large Mw = 7.6 earthquake that occurred on 2007 November 14 in the Northern Chile seismic gap near the city of Tocopilla. Using a variety of seismic data we show that this earthquake ruptured only the lower part of the interplate seismic zone and generated a series of plate interface aftershocks. Two large aftershocks on 2007 November 15 ruptured the interplate zone oceanwards of the Mejillones Peninsula, a major geographical feature in the Antofagasta region. On 2007 December 16, a large Mw = 6.8 aftershock, that occurred near the southern bottom of the fault plane of the main event, is shown to be a slab-push earthquake located inside the subducted Nazca Plate and triggered by along slab compression. Aftershocks of this event demonstrate that it occurred on an almost vertical fault. The Tocopilla earthquake took place just after the installation of a new seismological network by Chilean, German and French researchers. The accelerometric data combined with far field seismic data provide a quite complete and consistent view of the rupture process. The earthquake broke a long (130 km) and narrow (about 30-50 km) zone of the plate interface just above the transition zone. Using a non-linear kinematic inversion method, we determined that rupture occurred on two well-defined patches of roughly elliptical shape. We discuss the consequences of this event for models of gap filling earthquakes in Chile proposed in the 1970s.

  1. Aftershock activity of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake determined using the Kathmandu strong motion seismographic array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ichiyanagi, Masayoshi; Takai, Nobuo; Shigefuji, Michiko; Bijukchhen, Subeg; Sasatani, Tsutomu; Rajaure, Sudhir; Dhital, Megh Raj; Takahashi, Hiroaki

    2016-02-01

    The characteristics of aftershock activity of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake (Mw 7.8) were evaluated. The mainshock and aftershocks were recorded continuously by the international Kathmandu strong motion seismographic array operated by Hokkaido University and Tribhuvan University. Full waveform data without saturation for all events enabled us to clarify aftershock locations and decay characteristics. The aftershock distribution was determined using the estimated local velocity structure. The hypocenter distribution in the Kathmandu metropolitan region was well determined and indicated earthquakes located shallower than 12 km depth, suggesting that aftershocks occurred at depths shallower than the Himalayan main thrust fault. Although numerical investigation suggested less resolution for the depth component, the regional aftershock epicentral distribution of the entire focal region clearly indicated earthquakes concentrated in the eastern margin of the major slip region of the mainshock. The calculated modified Omori law's p value of 1.35 suggests rapid aftershock decay and a possible high temperature structure in the aftershock region.

  2. Vertebral shape: automatic measurement with dynamically sequenced active appearance models.

    PubMed

    Roberts, M G; Cootes, T F; Adams, J E

    2005-01-01

    The shape and appearance of vertebrae on lateral dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans were statistically modelled. The spine was modelled by a sequence of overlapping triplets of vertebrae, using Active Appearance Models (AAMs). To automate vertebral morphometry, the sequence of trained models was matched to previously unseen scans. The dataset includes a significant number of pathologies. A new dynamic ordering algorithm was assessed for the model fitting sequence, using the best quality of fit achieved by multiple sub-model candidates. The accuracy of the search was improved by dynamically imposing the best quality candidate first. The results confirm the feasibility of substantially automating vertebral morphometry measurements even with fractures or noisy images.

  3. The systematic study of the stability of forecasts in the rate- and state-dependent model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Gaetano, D.; McCloskey, J.; Nalbant, S. S.

    2011-12-01

    Numerous observations have shown a general spatial correlation between positive Coulomb failure stress changes due to an earthquake and the locations of aftershocks. However this correlation does not give any indication of the rate from which we can infer the magnitude using the Gutenberg-Richter law. Dieterich's rate- and state-dependent model can be used to obtain a forecast of the observed aftershock rate for the space and time evolution of seismicity caused by stress changes applied to an infinite population of nucleating patches. The seismicity rate changes on this model depend on eight parameters: the stressing rate, the amplitude of the stress perturbation, the physical constitutive properties of faults, the spatial parameters (location and radii of the cells), the start and duration of each of the temporal windows as well as the background seismicity rate. The background seismicity is declustered using the epidemic type aftershock sequence model. We use the 1992 Landers earthquake as a case study, using the Southern California Earthquake Data Centre (SCEDC) catalogue, to examine if Dieterich's rate- and state-dependent model can forecast the aftershock seismicity rate. We perform a systematic study on a range of values on all the parameters to test the forecasting ability of this model. The results obtained suggest variable success in forecasting, when varying the values for the parameters, with the spatial and temporal parameters being the most sensitive. The Omori-Utsu law describes the aftershock rate as a power law in time following the main shock and depends on only three parameters: the aftershock productivity, the elapsed time since the main shock and the constant time shift, all of which can be estimated in the early part of the aftershock sequence and then extrapolated to give a long term rate forecast. All parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood methods. We compare the Dieterich and the Omori-Utsu forecasts using the Akaike information

  4. High-Resolution Uitra Low Power, Intergrated Aftershock and Microzonation System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Passmore, P.; Zimakov, L. G.

    2012-12-01

    Rapid Aftershock Mobilization plays an essential role in the understanding of both focal mechanism and rupture propagation caused by strong earthquakes. A quick assessment of the data provides a unique opportunity to study the dynamics of the entire earthquake process in-situ. Aftershock study also provides practical information for local authorities regarding the post earthquake activity, which is very important in order to conduct the necessary actions for public safety in the area affected by the strong earthquake. Refraction Technology, Inc. has developed a self-contained, fully integrated Aftershock System, model 160-03, providing the customer simple and quick deployment during aftershock emergency mobilization and microzonation studies. The 160-03 has no external cables or peripheral equipment for command/control and operation in the field. The 160-03 contains three major components integrated in one case: a) 24-bit resolution state-of-the art low power ADC with CPU and Lid interconnect boards; b) power source; and c) three component 2 Hz sensors (two horizontals and one vertical), and built-in ±4g accelerometer. Optionally, the 1 Hz sensors can be built-in the 160-03 system at the customer's request. The self-contained rechargeable battery pack provides power autonomy up to 7 days during data acquisition at 200 sps on continuous three weak motion and triggered three strong motion recording channels. For longer power autonomy, the 160-03 Aftershock System battery pack can be charged from an external source (solar power system). The data in the field is recorded to a built-in swappable USB flash drive. The 160-03 configuration is fixed based on a configuration file stored on the system, so no external command/control interface is required for parameter setup in the field. For visual control of the system performance in the field, the 160-03 has a built-in LED display which indicates the systems recording status as well as a hot swappable USB drive and battery

  5. Model morphing and sequence assignment after molecular replacement

    SciTech Connect

    Terwilliger, Thomas C.; Read, Randy J.; Adams, Paul D.; Brunger, Axel T.; Afonine, Pavel V.; Hung, Li-Wei

    2013-11-01

    A procedure for model building is described that combines morphing a model to match a density map, trimming the morphed model and aligning the model to a sequence. A procedure termed ‘morphing’ for improving a model after it has been placed in the crystallographic cell by molecular replacement has recently been developed. Morphing consists of applying a smooth deformation to a model to make it match an electron-density map more closely. Morphing does not change the identities of the residues in the chain, only their coordinates. Consequently, if the true structure differs from the working model by containing different residues, these differences cannot be corrected by morphing. Here, a procedure that helps to address this limitation is described. The goal of the procedure is to obtain a relatively complete model that has accurate main-chain atomic positions and residues that are correctly assigned to the sequence. Residues in a morphed model that do not match the electron-density map are removed. Each segment of the resulting trimmed morphed model is then assigned to the sequence of the molecule using information about the connectivity of the chains from the working model and from connections that can be identified from the electron-density map. The procedure was tested by application to a recently determined structure at a resolution of 3.2 Å and was found to increase the number of correctly identified residues in this structure from the 88 obtained using phenix.resolve sequence assignment alone (Terwilliger, 2003 ▶) to 247 of a possible 359. Additionally, the procedure was tested by application to a series of templates with sequence identities to a target structure ranging between 7 and 36%. The mean fraction of correctly identified residues in these cases was increased from 33% using phenix.resolve sequence assignment to 47% using the current procedure. The procedure is simple to apply and is available in the Phenix software package.

  6. Source Characteristics of Aftershocks of the India Republic Day Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, S.; Bodin, P.; Johnston, A.; Withers, M.; Chiu, C.; Raphael, A.; Rabak, I.; Maio, Q.; Smalley, R.; Chiu, J.; Langston, C.

    2001-05-01

    We present a preliminary analysis of aftershocks of the Mw=7.7 Republic Day (26 January) 2001 earthquake in Gujarat, India, recorded on a network of portable digital event recorders (the MAEC/ISTAR network). During the 18 day deployment, this network recorded ground motion from nearly 2000 earthquakes; almost exclusively M<5 events within about 100 km of all stations. In this talk we will discuss the results of an analysis of approximately 400 earthquakes that were recorded at 6 or more sites. Because of its history of infrequent moderate-to-large earthquakes and its setting within a continental plate interior (albeit rather close to a rather diffuse continental boundary), studies of the Kachchh region may provide important insights for other high-consequence-but-low-occurrence-rate regions, such as the central US. A series of unfortunate circumstances has cast an obscuring veil of ignorance over the mainshock: we know of no strong-motion recordings of the mainshock, regional broad-band and seismic network data is notoriously difficult to obtain for scientific evaluation, evidence of surface rupture or deformation is fragmentary and complex or obscured by massive liquefaction, pre-existing geodetic networks are non-existent, and satellite-based radar interferometry studies have been hobbled by poor pre-earthquake images. Aftershock occurrence may provide critical evidence to determine which fault ruptured in January, 2001, and aftershock studies may provide important observational constraints on source processes and wave propagation in the region. We focus on trying to discern the mainshock fault plane, which appears to dip to the south, and whether the aftershocks are unusually deep (down to 35 km, which might help to explain the lack of obvious surface rupture). In addition to determining first-motion focal mechanisms we will examine whether stress drops of the aftershocks are, on the whole, high. We compare the seismic sources and regional propagation of

  7. Foreshock Sequences and Short-Term Earthquake Predictability on East Pacific Rise Transform Faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire, J. J.; Boettcher, M. S.; Jordan, T. H.

    2004-12-01

    A predominant view of continental seismicity postulates that all earthquakes initiate in a similar manner regardless of their eventual size and that earthquake triggering can be described by an Endemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model [e.g. Ogata, 1988, Helmstetter and Sorenette 2002]. These null hypotheses cannot be rejected as an explanation for the relative abundances of foreshocks and aftershocks to large earthquakes in California [Helmstetter et al., 2003]. An alternative location for testing this hypothesis is mid-ocean ridge transform faults (RTFs), which have many properties that are distinct from continental transform faults: most plate motion is accommodated aseismically, many large earthquakes are slow events enriched in low-frequency radiation, and the seismicity shows depleted aftershock sequences and high foreshock activity. Here we use the 1996-2001 NOAA-PMEL hydroacoustic seismicity catalog for equatorial East Pacific Rise transform faults to show that the foreshock/aftershock ratio is two orders of magnitude greater than the ETAS prediction based on global RTF aftershock abundances. We can thus reject the null hypothesis that there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks, and aftershocks on RTFs. We further demonstrate (retrospectively) that foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to achieve statistically significant short-term prediction of large earthquakes (magnitude ≥ 5.4) with good spatial (15-km) and temporal (1-hr) resolution using the NOAA-PMEL catalogs. Our very simplistic approach produces a large number of false alarms, but it successfully predicts the majority (70%) of M≥5.4 earthquakes while covering only a tiny fraction (0.15%) of the total potential space-time volume with alarms. Therefore, it achieves a large probability gain (about a factor of 500) over random guessing, despite not using any near field data. The predictability of large EPR transform earthquakes suggests

  8. Mapping Sensorimotor Sequences to Word Sequences: A Connectionist Model of Language Acquisition and Sentence Generation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Takac, Martin; Benuskova, Lubica; Knott, Alistair

    2012-01-01

    In this article we present a neural network model of sentence generation. The network has both technical and conceptual innovations. Its main technical novelty is in its semantic representations: the messages which form the input to the network are structured as sequences, so that message elements are delivered to the network one at a time. Rather…

  9. Recurrent Network Models of Sequence Generation and Memory.

    PubMed

    Rajan, Kanaka; Harvey, Christopher D; Tank, David W

    2016-04-01

    Sequential activation of neurons is a common feature of network activity during a variety of behaviors, including working memory and decision making. Previous network models for sequences and memory emphasized specialized architectures in which a principled mechanism is pre-wired into their connectivity. Here we demonstrate that, starting from random connectivity and modifying a small fraction of connections, a largely disordered recurrent network can produce sequences and implement working memory efficiently. We use this process, called Partial In-Network Training (PINning), to model and match cellular resolution imaging data from the posterior parietal cortex during a virtual memory-guided two-alternative forced-choice task. Analysis of the connectivity reveals that sequences propagate by the cooperation between recurrent synaptic interactions and external inputs, rather than through feedforward or asymmetric connections. Together our results suggest that neural sequences may emerge through learning from largely unstructured network architectures.

  10. Nonlinear Modeling of the Aids Virus Genetic Sequence Evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cocho, G.; Gelover-Santiago, A.; Martinez-Mekler, G.; Rodin, A.

    A network of coupled maps is introduced to model the evolution of the genetic sequence of the HIV1 AIDS virus. Within a space of RNA chemical composition, short range interactions correspond to mutations. Ecological constraints generate long range couplings. The resulting equations are of a reaction-diffusion type. Quasi-species with an error threshold emerge from the model dynamics. Predictions relating chemical composition regularity properties with the variability of the HIV RNA sequence agree with a statistical analysis from gene data banks. The model suggests a clue for an alternative therapeutical treatment.

  11. Seismic and Aseismic Slip on the San-Jacinto Fault Near Anza, CA, from Joint Analysis of Strain and Aftershock Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inbal, A.; Avouac, J. P.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2014-12-01

    The San-Jacinto Fault (SJF) is the most active fault in southern California, which together with the southern San-Andreas Fault accommodates a large fraction of the motion across the plate boundary. Seismicity along the SJF is distributed over several fault segments with distinct spatio-temporal characteristics. One of these segments, known as the Anza seismic gap, is a 25 km long strand almost devoid of seismicity. In recent years, four M4-5 events occurred SE of the gap. Despite their moderate magnitudes, these earthquakes triggered rich aftershock sequences and pronounced afterslip that lasted for several weeks, and was well captured by nearby PBO borehole strain meters. A similar transient was remotely triggered by the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. Geodetic and seismic observations following a local M5.4 mainshock indicate that afterslip propagated unilaterally towards the NW at speed of about 5 km/day. We infer the distribution of slip via a joint inversion of the aftershock and strain data. Our approach is based on Dieterich's (1994) model relating the evolution of seismicity rate to applied stresses, within the framework of rate-and-state friction. This approach provides resolution power at depths inaccessible to the surface geodetic network. Moreover, it allows us to gain important insights onto the fault mechanical properties. We apply this inversion scheme to episodes that occurred during 2010. Remarkably, we find that the cumulative moment released post-seismically during the locally triggered transient is 5-10 times larger than the moment of the mainshock. We show that the data favour a model in which deep slip transients, which may develop due to local or remote earthquakes, occur on a weak, close-to-velocity-neutral fault. The transients increase the stress along the Anza gap, and trigger earthquakes outside it through static stress transfer.

  12. Did stress triggering cause the large off-fault aftershocks of the 25 March 1998 MW=8.1 Antarctic plate earthquake?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.

    2000-01-01

    The 1998 Antarctic plate earthquake produced clusters of aftershocks (MW ??? 6.4) up to 80 km from the fault rupture and up to 100 km beyond the end of the rupture. Because the mainshock occurred far from the nearest plate boundary and the nearest recorded earthquake, it is unusually isolated from the stress perturbations caused by other earthquakes, making it a good candidate for stress transfer analysis despite the absence of near-field observations. We tested whether the off-fault aftershocks lie in regions brought closer to Coulomb failure by the main rupture. We evaluated four published source models for the main rupture. In fourteen tests using different aftershocks sets and allowing the rupture sources to be shifted within their uncertainties, 6 were significant at ??? 99% confidence, 3 at > 95% confidence, and 5 were not significant (< 95% level). For the 9 successful tests, the stress at the site of the aftershocks was typically increased by 1-2 bars (0.1-0.2 MPa). Thus the Antarctic plate event, together with the 1992 MW=7.3 Landers and its MW=6.5 Big Bear aftershock 40 km from the main fault, supply evidence that small stress changes might indeed trigger large earthquakes far from the main fault rupture.

  13. Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Conversation Event Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masuda, Naoki; Takaguchi, Taro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo

    Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for individuals are highly bursty. We examine some basic properties of event sequences generated by the Hawkes self-exciting process to show that it generates bursty interevent times for a wide parameter range. Then, we fit the model to the data of conversation sequences recorded in company offices in Japan. In this way, we can estimate relative magnitudes of the self excitement, its temporal decay, and the base event rate independent of the self excitation. These variables highly depend on individuals. We also point out that the Hawkes model has an important limitation that the correlation in the interevent times and the burstiness cannot be independently modulated.

  14. Generation of animation sequences of three dimensional models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poi, Sharon (Inventor); Bell, Brad N. (Inventor)

    1990-01-01

    The invention is directed toward a method and apparatus for generating an animated sequence through the movement of three-dimensional graphical models. A plurality of pre-defined graphical models are stored and manipulated in response to interactive commands or by means of a pre-defined command file. The models may be combined as part of a hierarchical structure to represent physical systems without need to create a separate model which represents the combined system. System motion is simulated through the introduction of translation, rotation and scaling parameters upon a model within the system. The motion is then transmitted down through the system hierarchy of models in accordance with hierarchical definitions and joint movement limitations. The present invention also calls for a method of editing hierarchical structure in response to interactive commands or a command file such that a model may be included, deleted, copied or moved within multiple system model hierarchies. The present invention also calls for the definition of multiple viewpoints or cameras which may exist as part of a system hierarchy or as an independent camera. The simulated movement of the models and systems is graphically displayed on a monitor and a frame is recorded by means of a video controller. Multiple movement and hierarchy manipulations are then recorded as a sequence of frames which may be played back as an animation sequence on a video cassette recorder.

  15. Main sequence models for massive zero-metal stars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cary, N.

    1974-01-01

    Zero-age main-sequence models for stars of 20, 10, 5, and 2 solar masses with no heavy elements are constructed for three different possible primordial helium abundances: Y=0.00, Y=0.23, and Y=0.30. The latter two values of Y bracket the range of primordial helium abundances cited by Wagoner. With the exceptions of the two 20 solar mass models that contain helium, these models are found to be self-consistent in the sense that the formation of carbon through the triple-alpha process during premain sequence contraction is not sufficient to bring the CN cycle into competition with the proton-proton chain on the ZAMS. The zero-metal models of the present study have higher surface and central temperatures, higher central densities, smaller radii, and smaller convective cores than do the population I models with the same masses.

  16. Generalized Levy-walk model for DNA nucleotide sequences

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buldyrev, S. V.; Goldberger, A. L.; Havlin, S.; Simons, M.; Stanley, H. E.

    1993-01-01

    We propose a generalized Levy walk to model fractal landscapes observed in noncoding DNA sequences. We find that this model provides a very close approximation to the empirical data and explains a number of statistical properties of genomic DNA sequences such as the distribution of strand-biased regions (those with an excess of one type of nucleotide) as well as local changes in the slope of the correlation exponent alpha. The generalized Levy-walk model simultaneously accounts for the long-range correlations in noncoding DNA sequences and for the apparently paradoxical finding of long subregions of biased random walks (length lj) within these correlated sequences. In the generalized Levy-walk model, the lj are chosen from a power-law distribution P(lj) varies as lj(-mu). The correlation exponent alpha is related to mu through alpha = 2-mu/2 if 2 < mu < 3. The model is consistent with the finding of "repetitive elements" of variable length interspersed within noncoding DNA.

  17. A mathematical model and numerical method for thermoelectric DNA sequencing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Liwei; Guilbeau, Eric J.; Nestorova, Gergana; Dai, Weizhong

    2014-05-01

    Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are single base pair variations within the genome that are important indicators of genetic predisposition towards specific diseases. This study explores the feasibility of SNP detection using a thermoelectric sequencing method that measures the heat released when DNA polymerase inserts a deoxyribonucleoside triphosphate into a DNA strand. We propose a three-dimensional mathematical model that governs the DNA sequencing device with a reaction zone that contains DNA template/primer complex immobilized to the surface of the lower channel wall. The model is then solved numerically. Concentrations of reactants and the temperature distribution are obtained. Results indicate that when the nucleoside is complementary to the next base in the DNA template, polymerization occurs lengthening the complementary polymer and releasing thermal energy with a measurable temperature change, implying that the thermoelectric conceptual device for sequencing DNA may be feasible for identifying specific genes in individuals.

  18. Geophysical data reveal the crustal structure of the Alaska Range orogen within the aftershock zone of the Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fisher, M.A.; Ratchkovski, N.A.; Nokleberg, W.J.; Pellerin, L.; Glen, J.M.G.

    2004-01-01

    Geophysical information, including deep-crustal seismic reflection, magnetotelluric (MT), gravity, and magnetic data, cross the aftershock zone of the 3 November 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake. These data and aftershock seismicity, jointly interpreted, reveal the crustal structure of the right-lateral-slip Denali fault and the eastern Alaska Range orogen, as well as the relationship between this structure and seismicity. North of the Denali fault, strong seismic reflections from within the Alaska Range orogen show features that dip as steeply as 25?? north and extend downward to depths between 20 and 25 km. These reflections reveal crustal structures, probably ductile shear zones, that most likely formed during the Late Cretaceous, but these structures appear to be inactive, having produced little seismicity during the past 20 years. Furthermore, seismic reflections mainly dip north, whereas alignments in aftershock hypocenters dip south. The Denali fault is nonreflective, but modeling of MT, gravity, and magnetic data suggests that the Denali fault dips steeply to vertically. However, in an alternative structural model, the Denali fault is defined by one of the reflection bands that dips to the north and flattens into the middle crust of the Alaska Range orogen. Modeling of MT data indicates a rock body, having low electrical resistivity (>10 ??-m), that lies mainly at depths greater than 10 km, directly beneath aftershocks of the Denali fault earthquake. The maximum depth of aftershocks along the Denali fault is 10 km. This shallow depth may arise from a higher-than-normal geothermal gradient. Alternatively, the low electrical resistivity of deep rocks along the Denali fault may be associated with fluids that have weakened the lower crust and helped determine the depth extent of the after-shock zone.

  19. Source parameters and effects of bandwidth and local geology on high- frequency ground motions observed for aftershocks of the northeastern Ohio earthquake of 31 January 1986

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glassmoyer, G.; Borcherdt, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    A 10-station array (GEOS) yielded recordings of exceptional bandwidth (400 sps) and resolution (up to 96 dB) for the aftershocks of the moderate (mb???4.9) earthquake that occurred on 31 January 1986 near Painesville, Ohio. Nine aftershocks were recorded with seismic moments ranging between 9 ?? 1016 and 3 ?? 1019 dyne-cm (MW: 0.6 to 2.3). The aftershock recordings at a site underlain by ???8m of lakeshore sediments show significant levels of high-frequency soil amplification of vertical motion at frequencies near 8, 20 and 70 Hz. Viscoelastic models for P and SV waves incident at the base of the sediments yield estimates of vertical P-wave response consistent with the observed high-frequency site resonances, but suggest additional detailed shear-wave logs are needed to account for observed S-wave response. -from Authors

  20. Boolean Network Model Predicts Cell Cycle Sequence of Fission Yeast

    PubMed Central

    Davidich, Maria I.; Bornholdt, Stefan

    2008-01-01

    A Boolean network model of the cell-cycle regulatory network of fission yeast (Schizosaccharomyces Pombe) is constructed solely on the basis of the known biochemical interaction topology. Simulating the model in the computer faithfully reproduces the known activity sequence of regulatory proteins along the cell cycle of the living cell. Contrary to existing differential equation models, no parameters enter the model except the structure of the regulatory circuitry. The dynamical properties of the model indicate that the biological dynamical sequence is robustly implemented in the regulatory network, with the biological stationary state G1 corresponding to the dominant attractor in state space, and with the biological regulatory sequence being a strongly attractive trajectory. Comparing the fission yeast cell-cycle model to a similar model of the corresponding network in S. cerevisiae, a remarkable difference in circuitry, as well as dynamics is observed. While the latter operates in a strongly damped mode, driven by external excitation, the S. pombe network represents an auto-excited system with external damping. PMID:18301750

  1. Extracting protein alignment models from the sequence database.

    PubMed Central

    Neuwald, A F; Liu, J S; Lipman, D J; Lawrence, C E

    1997-01-01

    Biologists often gain structural and functional insights into a protein sequence by constructing a multiple alignment model of the family. Here a program called Probe fully automates this process of model construction starting from a single sequence. Central to this program is a powerful new method to locate and align only those, often subtly, conserved patterns essential to the family as a whole. When applied to randomly chosen proteins, Probe found on average about four times as many relationships as a pairwise search and yielded many new discoveries. These include: an obscure subfamily of globins in the roundworm Caenorhabditis elegans ; two new superfamilies of metallohydrolases; a lipoyl/biotin swinging arm domain in bacterial membrane fusion proteins; and a DH domain in the yeast Bud3 and Fus2 proteins. By identifying distant relationships and merging families into superfamilies in this way, this analysis further confirms the notion that proteins evolved from relatively few ancient sequences. Moreover, this method automatically generates models of these ancient conserved regions for rapid and sensitive screening of sequences. PMID:9108146

  2. Genome sequencing and analysis of the model grass Brachypodium distachyon

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Xiaohan; Kalluri, Udaya C; Tuskan, Gerald A

    2010-01-01

    Three subfamilies of grasses, the Ehrhartoideae, Panicoideae and Pooideae, provide the bulk of human nutrition and are poised to become major sources of renewable energy. Here we describe the genome sequence of the wild grass Brachypodium distachyon (Brachypodium), which is, to our knowledge, the first member of the Pooideae subfamily to be sequenced. Comparison of the Brachypodium, rice and sorghum genomes shows a precise history of genome evolution across a broad diversity of the grasses, and establishes a template for analysis of the large genomes of economically important pooid grasses such as wheat. The high-quality genome sequence, coupled with ease of cultivation and transformation, small size and rapid life cycle, will help Brachypodium reach its potential as an important model system for developing new energy and food crops.

  3. Genome sequence of the model medicinal mushroom Ganoderma lucidum

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Shilin; Xu, Jiang; Liu, Chang; Zhu, Yingjie; Nelson, David R.; Zhou, Shiguo; Li, Chunfang; Wang, Lizhi; Guo, Xu; Sun, Yongzhen; Luo, Hongmei; Li, Ying; Song, Jingyuan; Henrissat, Bernard; Levasseur, Anthony; Qian, Jun; Li, Jianqin; Luo, Xiang; Shi, Linchun; He, Liu; Xiang, Li; Xu, Xiaolan; Niu, Yunyun; Li, Qiushi; Han, Mira V.; Yan, Haixia; Zhang, Jin; Chen, Haimei; Lv, Aiping; Wang, Zhen; Liu, Mingzhu; Schwartz, David C.; Sun, Chao

    2012-01-01

    Ganoderma lucidum is a widely used medicinal macrofungus in traditional Chinese medicine that creates a diverse set of bioactive compounds. Here we report its 43.3-Mb genome, encoding 16,113 predicted genes, obtained using next-generation sequencing and optical mapping approaches. The sequence analysis reveals an impressive array of genes encoding cytochrome P450s (CYPs), transporters and regulatory proteins that cooperate in secondary metabolism. The genome also encodes one of the richest sets of wood degradation enzymes among all of the sequenced basidiomycetes. In all, 24 physical CYP gene clusters are identified. Moreover, 78 CYP genes are coexpressed with lanosterol synthase, and 16 of these show high similarity to fungal CYPs that specifically hydroxylate testosterone, suggesting their possible roles in triterpenoid biosynthesis. The elucidation of the G. lucidum genome makes this organism a potential model system for the study of secondary metabolic pathways and their regulation in medicinal fungi. PMID:22735441

  4. Relocation and characteristics of recent earthquake sequences (2013, 2014) on the North Gulf of Evia, Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moshou, Alexandra; Ganas, Athanassios; Karastathis, Vassilios; Mouzakiotis, Evangelos

    2015-04-01

    This work presents the results of relocation and stress inversion analysis for two recent earthquake sequences in the northern Gulf of Evia, central Greece. On 12 November 2013 (18:09, UTC) a moderate earthquake, ML=4.8 occurred onshore northern Evia, near the village Taxiarxis. The epicentral area of this event was manually located: φ=38.9133° Ν, λ=23.0977° Ε at depth 14 km, according to NOA. For a period of one month there were 155 aftershocks with magnitude ML>0.5, while the first day there were 85 earthquakes; the largest of them with magnitude ML=3.9. On November 17, 2014, two shallow earthquakes with magnitude ML=5.2 occurred inside the northern Gulf of Evia, about 34 km NW of Chalkis town. For the location of above events broadband data from HUSN network were used. The relocation for both sequences was done by use of the NonLinLoc software of Lomax etal. (2000). For this purpose a local velocity model was used, calculated in the past by traveltime inversion techniques. For the 2013 seismic sequence the phase data from National Observatory of Athens include more than 12700 P and 4800 S - wave arrivals. Only events with at least 8 P-wave and 4 S-wave arrival having an azimuthal gap lower than 180°, location RMS lower than 0.8 sec and vertical and horizontal errors lower than 1.5 km were selected for processing. A NNW-SSE near-vertical fault was revealed after relocation. The second part of this study refers to the calculation of the moment tensor solutions for the main events as well as for the strongest aftershocks of the 2014 seismic sequence. Seismological broadband data from the Hellenic Unified Seismological Network were collected and analyzed in order to determine the source parameters of the events that occurred in the study area. We selected and analyzed the data of 10 broadband seismological stations with three components. The source parameters were calculated based on a moment tensor inversion, using regional waveforms at epicentral distances

  5. Sequence design in lattice models by graph theoretical methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanjeev, B. S.; Patra, S. M.; Vishveshwara, S.

    2001-01-01

    A general strategy has been developed based on graph theoretical methods, for finding amino acid sequences that take up a desired conformation as the native state. This problem of inverse design has been addressed by assigning topological indices for the monomer sites (vertices) of the polymer on a 3×3×3 cubic lattice. This is a simple design strategy, which takes into account only the topology of the target protein and identifies the best sequence for a given composition. The procedure allows the design of a good sequence for a target native state by assigning weights for the vertices on a lattice site in a given conformation. It is seen across a variety of conformations that the predicted sequences perform well both in sequence and in conformation space, in identifying the target conformation as native state for a fixed composition of amino acids. Although the method is tested in the framework of the HP model [K. F. Lau and K. A. Dill, Macromolecules 22, 3986 (1989)] it can be used in any context if proper potential functions are available, since the procedure derives unique weights for all the sites (vertices, nodes) of the polymer chain of a chosen conformation (graph).

  6. The genome sequence of the model ascomycete fungus Podospora anserina

    PubMed Central

    Espagne, Eric; Lespinet, Olivier; Malagnac, Fabienne; Da Silva, Corinne; Jaillon, Olivier; Porcel, Betina M; Couloux, Arnaud; Aury, Jean-Marc; Ségurens, Béatrice; Poulain, Julie; Anthouard, Véronique; Grossetete, Sandrine; Khalili, Hamid; Coppin, Evelyne; Déquard-Chablat, Michelle; Picard, Marguerite; Contamine, Véronique; Arnaise, Sylvie; Bourdais, Anne; Berteaux-Lecellier, Véronique; Gautheret, Daniel; de Vries, Ronald P; Battaglia, Evy; Coutinho, Pedro M; Danchin, Etienne GJ; Henrissat, Bernard; Khoury, Riyad EL; Sainsard-Chanet, Annie; Boivin, Antoine; Pinan-Lucarré, Bérangère; Sellem, Carole H; Debuchy, Robert; Wincker, Patrick; Weissenbach, Jean; Silar, Philippe

    2008-01-01

    Background The dung-inhabiting ascomycete fungus Podospora anserina is a model used to study various aspects of eukaryotic and fungal biology, such as ageing, prions and sexual development. Results We present a 10X draft sequence of P. anserina genome, linked to the sequences of a large expressed sequence tag collection. Similar to higher eukaryotes, the P. anserina transcription/splicing machinery generates numerous non-conventional transcripts. Comparison of the P. anserina genome and orthologous gene set with the one of its close relatives, Neurospora crassa, shows that synteny is poorly conserved, the main result of evolution being gene shuffling in the same chromosome. The P. anserina genome contains fewer repeated sequences and has evolved new genes by duplication since its separation from N. crassa, despite the presence of the repeat induced point mutation mechanism that mutates duplicated sequences. We also provide evidence that frequent gene loss took place in the lineages leading to P. anserina and N. crassa. P. anserina contains a large and highly specialized set of genes involved in utilization of natural carbon sources commonly found in its natural biotope. It includes genes potentially involved in lignin degradation and efficient cellulose breakdown. Conclusion The features of the P. anserina genome indicate a highly dynamic evolution since the divergence of P. anserina and N. crassa, leading to the ability of the former to use specific complex carbon sources that match its needs in its natural biotope. PMID:18460219

  7. Accident sequence precursor analysis level 2/3 model development

    SciTech Connect

    Lui, C.H.; Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.

    1997-02-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program currently uses simple Level 1 models to assess the conditional core damage probability for operational events occurring in commercial nuclear power plants (NPP). Since not all accident sequences leading to core damage will result in the same radiological consequences, it is necessary to develop simple Level 2/3 models that can be used to analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude of the resulting radioactive releases to the environment, and calculate the consequences associated with these releases. The simple Level 2/3 model development work was initiated in 1995, and several prototype models have been completed. Once developed, these simple Level 2/3 models are linked to the simple Level 1 models to provide risk perspectives for operational events. This paper describes the methods implemented for the development of these simple Level 2/3 ASP models, and the linkage process to the existing Level 1 models.

  8. Gonadotropin hormone and receptor sequences from model teleost species.

    PubMed

    Wong, Andrew C; Van Eenennaam, Alison L

    2004-01-01

    Fish offer some advantages for the study of vertebrate reproductive physiology. Only a few of the genes encoding the components of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis have been identified from model teleosts. This study describes a combination of database searching and molecular approaches to identify the FSH and LH gonadotropin beta-subunits (fshb and lhb, respectively), and the LH receptor (lhr) from two model teleost species: zebrafish (Danio rerio) and Fugu (Takifugu rubripes). Sequence and phylogenetic analyses were used to examine the relationships that exist between gonadotropins and their receptors from species representing several piscine orders. The gonadotropin alpha-subunit (Cga) is highly conserved among teleosts and tetrapods. The presence of a genomic pseudogene (cgap) was also noted in zebrafish. Generally, teleostean FSHbeta protein sequences share less identity with each other than do LHbeta protein sequences, supporting the hypothesis that FSHbeta diverged more rapidly during teleost evolution. Interestingly, and uniquely, zebrafish Fshb lacked two highly conserved cysteine residues in the "determinant loop" which is thought to contribute towards receptor binding and specificity. Teleost gonadotropin receptor sequences clearly diverged into two distinct groups, FSHR and LHR. As has been seen with mammalian gonadotropin receptor transcripts, splice variants of zebrafish lhr were also observed.

  9. Efficient inference of hidden Markov models from large observation sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Priest, Benjamin W.; Cybenko, George

    2016-05-01

    The hidden Markov model (HMM) is widely used to model time series data. However, the conventional Baum- Welch algorithm is known to perform poorly when applied to long observation sequences. The literature contains several alternatives that seek to improve the memory or time complexity of the algorithm. However, for an HMM with N states and an observation sequence of length T, these alternatives require at best O(N) space and O(N2T) time. Given the preponderance of applications that increasingly deal with massive amounts of data, an alternative whose time is O(T)+poly(N) is desired. Recent research presents an alternative to the Baum-Welch algorithm that relies on nonnegative matrix factorization. This document examines the space complexity of this alternative approach and proposes further optimizations using approaches adopted from the matrix sketching literature. The result is a streaming algorithm whose space complexity is constant and time complexity is linear with respect to the size of the observation sequence. The paper also presents a batch algorithm that allow for even further improved space complexity at the expense of an additional pass over the observation sequence.

  10. Supervised learning of hidden Markov models for sequence discrimination

    SciTech Connect

    Mamitsuka, Hiroshi

    1997-12-01

    We present two supervised learning algorithms for hidden Markov models (HMMs) for sequence discrimination. When we model a class of sequences with an HMM, conventional learning algorithms for HMMs have trained the HMM with training examples belonging to the class, i.e. positive examples alone, while both of our methods allow us to use negative examples as well as positive examples. One of our algorithms minimizes a kind of distance between a target likelihood of a given training sequence and an actual likelihood of the sequence, which is obtained by a given HMM, using an additive type of parameter updating based on a gradient-descent learning. The other algorithm maximizes a criterion which represents a kind of ratio of the likelihood of a positive example to the likelihood of the total example, using a multiplicative type of parameter updating which is more efficient in actual computation time than the additive type one. We compare our two methods with two conventional methods on a type of cross-validation of actual motif classification experiments. Experimental results show that in terms of the average number of classification errors, our two methods out-perform the two conventional algorithms. 14 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  11. High Frequency Monitoring Reveals Aftershocks in Subcritical Crack Growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stojanova, M.; Santucci, S.; Vanel, L.; Ramos, O.

    2014-03-01

    By combining direct imaging and acoustic emission measurements, the subcritical propagation of a crack in a heterogeneous material is analyzed. Both methods show that the fracture proceeds through a succession of discrete events. However, the macroscopic opening of the fracture captured by the images results from the accumulation of more-elementary events detected by the acoustics. When the acoustic energy is cumulated over large time scales corresponding to the image acquisition rate, a similar statistics is recovered. High frequency acoustic monitoring reveals aftershocks responsible for a time scale dependent exponent of the power law energy distributions. On the contrary, direct imaging, which is unable to resolve these aftershocks, delivers a misleading exponent value.

  12. Disease aftershocks - The health effects of natural disasters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guptill, S.C.

    2001-01-01

    While the initial activity of a natural disaster event may directly injure or kill a number of people, it is possible that a significant number of individuals will be affected by disease outbreaks that occur after the first effects of the disaster have passed. Coupling the epidemiologist's knowledge of disease outbreaks with geographic information systems and remote sensing technology could help natural disaster relief workers to prevent additional victims from disease aftershocks.

  13. Direct test of static stress versus dynamic stress triggering of aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pollitz, F.F.; Johnston, M.J.S.

    2006-01-01

    Aftershocks observed over time scales of minutes to months following a main shock are plausibly triggered by the static stress change imparted by the main shock, dynamic shaking effects associated with passage of seismic waves from the main shock, or a combination of the two. We design a direct test of static versus dynamic triggering of aftershocks by comparing the near-field temporal aftershock patterns generated by aseismic and impulsive events occurring in the same source area. The San Juan Bautista, California, area is ideally suited for this purpose because several events of both types of M???5 have occurred since 1974. We find that aftershock rates observed after impulsive events are much higher than those observed after aseismic events, and this pattern persists for several weeks after the event. This suggests that, at least in the near field, dynamic triggering is the dominant cause of aftershocks, and that it generates both immediate and delayed aftershock activity.

  14. Accident Sequence Precursor Program Large Early Release Frequency Model Development

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, T.D.; Brownson, D.A.; Duran, F.A.; Gregory, J.J.; Rodrick, E.G.

    1999-01-04

    The objectives for the ASP large early release frequency (LERF) model development work is to build a Level 2 containment response model that would capture all of the events necessary to define LERF as outlined in Regulatory Guide 1.174, can be directly interfaced with the existing Level 1 models, is technically correct, can be readily modified to incorporate new information or to represent another plant, and can be executed in SAPHIRE. The ASP LERF models being developed will meet these objectives while providing the NRC with the capability to independently assess the risk impact of plant-specific changes proposed by the utilities that change the nuclear power plants' licensing basis. Together with the ASP Level 1 models, the ASP LERF models provide the NRC with the capability of performing equipment and event assessments to determine their impact on a plant's LERF for internal events during power operation. In addition, the ASP LERF models are capable of being updated to reflect changes in information regarding the system operations and phenomenological events, and of being updated to assess the potential for early fatalities for each LERF sequence. As the ASP Level 1 models evolve to include more analysis capabilities, the LERF models will also be refined to reflect the appropriate level of detail needed to demonstrate the new capabilities. An approach was formulated for the development of detailed LERF models using the NUREG-1150 APET models as a guide. The modifications to the SAPHIRE computer code have allowed the development of these detailed models and the ability to analyze these models in a reasonable time. Ten reference LERF plant models, including six PWR models and four BWR models, which cover a wide variety of containment and nuclear steam supply systems designs, will be complete in 1999. These reference models will be used as the starting point for developing the LERF models for the remaining nuclear power plants.

  15. Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults.

    PubMed

    McGuire, Jeffrey J; Boettcher, Margaret S; Jordan, Thomas H

    2005-03-24

    East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion. PMID:15791246

  16. Double-difference Relocation of the Aftershocks of the Tecomán, Colima, Mexico Earthquake of 22 January 2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Vanessa; Stock, Joann; Ramírez Vázquez, Carlos Ariel; Reyes-Dávila, Gabriel

    2011-08-01

    On 22 January 2003, the M w = 7.6 Tecomán earthquake struck offshore of the state of Colima, Mexico, near the diffuse triple junction between the Cocos, Rivera, and North American plates. Three-hundred and fifty aftershocks of the Tecomán earthquake with magnitudes between 2.6 and 5.8, each recorded by at least 7 stations, are relocated using the double difference method. Initial locations are determined using P and S readings from the Red Sismológica Telemétrica del Estado de Colima (RESCO) and a 1-D velocity model. Because only eight RESCO stations were operating immediately following the Tecomán earthquake, uncertainties in the initial locations and depths are fairly large, with average uncertainties of 8.0 km in depth and 1.4 km in the north-south and east-west directions. Events occurring between 24 January and 31 January were located using not only RESCO phase readings but also additional P and S readings from 11 temporary stations. Average uncertainties decrease to 0.8 km in depth, 0.3 km in the east-west direction, and 0.7 km in the north-south direction for events occurring while the temporary stations were deployed. While some preliminary studies of the early aftershocks suggested that they were dominated by shallow events above the plate interface, our results place the majority of aftershocks along the plate interface, for a slab dipping between approximately 20° and 30°. This is consistent with the slab positions inferred from geodetic studies. We do see some upper plate aftershocks that may correspond to forearc fault zones, and faults inland in the upper plate, particularly among events occurring more than 3 months after the mainshock.

  17. Aftershock distribution of a M 2.1 earthquake near a geologic structure boundary in a deep South African gold mine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naoi, M.; Kwiatek, G.; Yabe, Y.; Philipp, J.; Nakatani, M.; Igarashi, T.

    2008-12-01

    We are operating a high-frequency (up to 200 kHz) seismic network at a depth of 3550 m in a deep South African gold mine (Nakatani et al. 2007). An earthquake of M 2.1 occurred within our network on December 27, 2007 (Yabe et al. 2008). In 150 hours following the event, our AE network detected approx. 20,000 events within 100 m from the center of the our network. This aftershock sequence obeys Omori"fs Law. In mines, the number of aftershocks is usually small, but this seems to be simply because vast majority of aftershocks are smaller than detection limit. During the same period, the seismic network of the mine (detection threshold approx. Mw -0.5) detected only nine earthquakes at most. If we assume GR law, comparison of the numbers of aftershocks detected by the both networks suggests that the detection threshold of our AE network is about M - 4. In the area, there is a vertically intruded rock structure made of solidified magma (PG dyke). Thickness is 20 ~ 30 m. This earthquake was expected to be induced by mining around this dyke in 2007 ~ 2008. The boundary position between the dyke and the host rock has been surveyed by the mine, using cores from many boreholes. In addition, our ultrasonic transmission tests have indicated that this contact is generally sharp and there is significant velocity contrast. Velocities within dyke and host rock were fairly uniform (Dyke Vp, Vs are 6.90 km/s, 3.92 km/s respectively, Host Rock Vp Vs are 6.00 km/s, 3.65 km/s respectively). The hypocenter of the M 2.1 earthquake is located within the dyke, not on the contact. The aftershocks lined up on a plane, 30 degrees off vertical; They do not seem to be on the boundary because the dip of the boundary is almost vertical. The distance between them and the closest station of our network was about 6 m. The upper end of aftershock distribution is not clear because of detection limit of our AE network. On the other hand, the downward distribution of the aftershocks seems to be

  18. MODELING THE RED SEQUENCE: HIERARCHICAL GROWTH YET SLOW LUMINOSITY EVOLUTION

    SciTech Connect

    Skelton, Rosalind E.; Bell, Eric F.; Somerville, Rachel S.

    2012-07-01

    We explore the effects of mergers on the evolution of massive early-type galaxies by modeling the evolution of their stellar populations in a hierarchical context. We investigate how a realistic red sequence population set up by z {approx} 1 evolves under different assumptions for the merger and star formation histories, comparing changes in color, luminosity, and mass. The purely passive fading of existing red sequence galaxies, with no further mergers or star formation, results in dramatic changes at the bright end of the luminosity function and color-magnitude relation. Without mergers there is too much evolution in luminosity at a fixed space density compared to observations. The change in color and magnitude at a fixed mass resembles that of a passively evolving population that formed relatively recently, at z {approx} 2. Mergers among the red sequence population ('dry mergers') occurring after z = 1 build up mass, counteracting the fading of the existing stellar populations to give smaller changes in both color and luminosity for massive galaxies. By allowing some galaxies to migrate from the blue cloud onto the red sequence after z = 1 through gas-rich mergers, younger stellar populations are added to the red sequence. This manifestation of the progenitor bias increases the scatter in age and results in even smaller changes in color and luminosity between z = 1 and z = 0 at a fixed mass. The resultant evolution appears much slower, resembling the passive evolution of a population that formed at high redshift (z {approx} 3-5), and is in closer agreement with observations. We conclude that measurements of the luminosity and color evolution alone are not sufficient to distinguish between the purely passive evolution of an old population and cosmologically motivated hierarchical growth, although these scenarios have very different implications for the mass growth of early-type galaxies over the last half of cosmic history.

  19. A model of return intervals between earthquake events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Yu; Chechkin, Aleksei; Sokolov, Igor M.; Kantz, Holger

    2016-06-01

    Application of the diffusion entropy analysis and the standard deviation analysis to the time sequence of the southern California earthquake events from 1976 to 2002 uncovered scaling behavior typical for anomalous diffusion. However, the origin of such behavior is still under debate. Some studies attribute the scaling behavior to the correlations in the return intervals, or waiting times, between aftershocks or mainshocks. To elucidate a nature of the scaling, we applied specific reshulffling techniques to eliminate correlations between different types of events and then examined how it affects the scaling behavior. We demonstrate that the origin of the scaling behavior observed is the interplay between mainshock waiting time distribution and the structure of clusters of aftershocks, but not correlations in waiting times between the mainshocks and aftershocks themselves. Our findings are corroborated by numerical simulations of a simple model showing a very similar behavior. The mainshocks are modeled by a renewal process with a power-law waiting time distribution between events, and aftershocks follow a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with the rate governed by Omori's law.

  20. Space time ETAS models and an improved extension

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogata, Yosihiko; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2006-02-01

    For sensitive detection of anomalous seismicity such as quiescence and activation in a given region, we need a suitable statistical reference model that represents a normal seismic activity in the region. The regional occurrence rate of the earthquakes is modeled as a function of previous activity, the specific form of which is based on empirical laws in time and space such as the modified Omori formula and the Utsu-Seki scaling law of aftershock area against magnitude, respectively. This manuscript summarizes the development of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and proposes an extended version of the best fitted space-time model that was suggested in Ogata [Ogata, Y., 1998. Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences, Ann. Inst. Statist. Math., 50: 379-402.]. This model indicates significantly better fit to seismicity in various regions in and around Japan.

  1. Seismic tomography of the area of the 2010 Beni-Ilmane earthquake sequence, north-central Algeria.

    PubMed

    Abacha, Issam; Koulakov, Ivan; Semmane, Fethi; Yelles-Chaouche, Abd Karim

    2014-01-01

    The region of Beni-Ilmane (District of M'sila, north-central Algeria) was the site of an earthquake sequence that started on 14 May 2010. This sequence, which lasted several months, was triggered by conjugate E-W reverse and N-S dextral faulting. To image the crustal structure of these active faults, we used a set of 1406 well located aftershocks events and applied the local tomography software (LOTOS) algorithm, which includes absolute source location, optimization of the initial 1D velocity model, and iterative tomographic inversion for 3D seismic P- and S-wave velocities (and the Vp/Vs ratio), and source parameters. The patterns of P-wave low-velocity anomalies correspond to the alignments of faults determined from geological evidence, and the P-wave high-velocity anomalies may represent rigid blocks of the upper crust that are not deformed by regional stresses. The S-wave low-velocity anomalies coincide with the aftershock area, where relatively high values of Vp/Vs ratio (1.78) are observed compared with values in the surrounding areas (1.62-1.66). These high values may indicate high fluid contents in the aftershock area. These fluids could have been released from deeper levels by fault movements during earthquakes and migrated rapidly upwards. This hypothesis is supported by vertical sections across the study area show that the major Vp/Vs anomalies are located above the seismicity clusters.

  2. Modeling seismic swarms triggered by aseismic transients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, Andrea L.; McGuire, Jeffrey J.; Ogata, Yosihiko

    2009-04-01

    The rate of earthquake occurrence varies by many orders of magnitude in a given region due to variations in the stress state of the crust. Our focus here is on variations in seismicity rate triggered by transient aseismic processes such as fluid flow, fault creep or magma intrusion. While these processes have been shown to trigger earthquakes, converting observed seismicity variations into estimates of stress rate variations has been challenging. Essentially aftershock sequences often obscure changes in the background seismicity rate resulting from aseismic processes. Two common approaches for estimating the time dependence of the underlying driving mechanisms are the stochastic Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model (ETAS) [Ogata, Y., (1988), Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 83, 9-27.] and a physical approach based on the rate- and state-model of fault friction [Dieterich, J., (1994), A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 2601-2618.]. The models have different strengths that could be combined to allow more quantitative studies of earthquake triggering. To accomplish this, we identify the parameters that relate to one another in the two models and examine their dependence on stressing rate. A particular conflict arises because the rate-state model predicts that aftershock productivity scales with stressing rate while the ETAS model assumes that it is time independent. To resolve this issue, we estimate triggering parameters for 4 earthquake swarms contemporaneous with geodetically observed deformation transients in various tectonic environments. We find that stressing rate transients increase the background seismicity rate without affecting aftershock productivity. We then specify a combined model for seismicity rate variations that will allow future studies to invert seismicity catalogs for variations in

  3. Advanced accident sequence precursor analysis level 2 models

    SciTech Connect

    Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.; Rempe, J.L.

    1996-03-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Accident Sequence Precursor program pursues the ultimate objective of performing risk significant evaluations on operational events (precursors) occurring in commercial nuclear power plants. To achieve this objective, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research is supporting the development of simple probabilistic risk assessment models for all commercial nuclear power plants (NPP) in the U.S. Presently, only simple Level 1 plant models have been developed which estimate core damage frequencies. In order to provide a true risk perspective, the consequences associated with postulated core damage accidents also need to be considered. With the objective of performing risk evaluations in an integrated and consistent manner, a linked event tree approach which propagates the front end results to back end was developed. This approach utilizes simple plant models that analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude and timing of a radioactive release to the environment, and calculate the consequences for a given release. Detailed models and results from previous studies, such as the NUREG-1150 study, are used to quantify these simple models. These simple models are then linked to the existing Level 1 models, and are evaluated using the SAPHIRE code. To demonstrate the approach, prototypic models have been developed for a boiling water reactor, Peach Bottom, and a pressurized water reactor, Zion.

  4. PyMod: sequence similarity searches, multiple sequence-structure alignments, and homology modeling within PyMOL

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background In recent years, an exponential growing number of tools for protein sequence analysis, editing and modeling tasks have been put at the disposal of the scientific community. Despite the vast majority of these tools have been released as open source software, their deep learning curves often discourages even the most experienced users. Results A simple and intuitive interface, PyMod, between the popular molecular graphics system PyMOL and several other tools (i.e., [PSI-]BLAST, ClustalW, MUSCLE, CEalign and MODELLER) has been developed, to show how the integration of the individual steps required for homology modeling and sequence/structure analysis within the PyMOL framework can hugely simplify these tasks. Sequence similarity searches, multiple sequence and structural alignments generation and editing, and even the possibility to merge sequence and structure alignments have been implemented in PyMod, with the aim of creating a simple, yet powerful tool for sequence and structure analysis and building of homology models. Conclusions PyMod represents a new tool for the analysis and the manipulation of protein sequences and structures. The ease of use, integration with many sequence retrieving and alignment tools and PyMOL, one of the most used molecular visualization system, are the key features of this tool. Source code, installation instructions, video tutorials and a user's guide are freely available at the URL http://schubert.bio.uniroma1.it/pymod/index.html PMID:22536966

  5. High resolution sequence stratigraphic concepts applied to geostatistical modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Desaubliaux, G.; De Lestang, A.P.; Eschard, R.

    1995-08-01

    Lithofacies simulations using a high resolution 3D grid allow to enhance the geometries of internal heterogeneities of reservoirs. In this study the series simulated were the Ness formation, part of the Brent reservoir in the Dunbar field located in the Viking graben of the North Sea. Simulations results have been used to build the reservoir layering supporting the 3D grid used for reservoir engineering, and also used as a frame to study the effects of secondary diagenetic processes on petrophysical properties. The method used is based on a geostatistical study and integrates the following data: a geological model using sequence stratigraphic concepts to define lithofacies sequences and associated bounding surfaces, well data (cores and logs) used as database for geostatistical analysis and simulations, seismic data: a 3D seismic survey has been used to define the internal surfaces bounding the units, outcrop data: The Mesa Verde formation (Colorado, USA) has been used as an outcrop analog to calibrate geostatistical parameters for the simulations (horizontal range of the variograms). This study illustrates the capacity to use high resolution sequence stratigraphic concepts to improve the simulations of reservoirs when the lack of subsurface information reduce the accuracy of geostatistical analysis.

  6. Advanced accident sequence precursor analysis level 1 models

    SciTech Connect

    Sattison, M.B.; Thatcher, T.A.; Knudsen, J.K.; Schroeder, J.A.; Siu, N.O.

    1996-03-01

    INEL has been involved in the development of plant-specific Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models for the past two years. These models were developed for use with the SAPHIRE suite of PRA computer codes. They contained event tree/linked fault tree Level 1 risk models for the following initiating events: general transient, loss-of-offsite-power, steam generator tube rupture, small loss-of-coolant-accident, and anticipated transient without scram. Early in 1995 the ASP models were revised based on review comments from the NRC and an independent peer review. These models were released as Revision 1. The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research has sponsored several projects at the INEL this fiscal year to further enhance the capabilities of the ASP models. Revision 2 models incorporates more detailed plant information into the models concerning plant response to station blackout conditions, information on battery life, and other unique features gleaned from an Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation quick review of the Individual Plant Examination submittals. These models are currently being delivered to the NRC as they are completed. A related project is a feasibility study and model development of low power/shutdown (LP/SD) and external event extensions to the ASP models. This project will establish criteria for selection of LP/SD and external initiator operational events for analysis within the ASP program. Prototype models for each pertinent initiating event (loss of shutdown cooling, loss of inventory control, fire, flood, seismic, etc.) will be developed. A third project concerns development of enhancements to SAPHIRE. In relation to the ASP program, a new SAPHIRE module, GEM, was developed as a specific user interface for performing ASP evaluations. This module greatly simplifies the analysis process for determining the conditional core damage probability for a given combination of initiating events and equipment failures or degradations.

  7. Coulomb stress change for the normal-fault aftershocks triggered near the Japan Trench by the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, Tamao; Hiratsuka, Shinya; Mori, Jim

    2012-12-01

    Coulomb stress triggering is examined using well-determined aftershock focal mechanisms and source models of the 2011 M w 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. We tested several slip distributions obtained by inverting onshore GPS-derived coseismic displacements under different a priori constraints on the initial fault parameters. The aftershock focal mechanisms are most consistent with the Coulomb stress change calculated for a slip distribution having a center of slip close to the trench. This demonstrates the capability of the Coulomb stress change to help constrain the slip distribution that is otherwise difficult to determine. Coulomb stress changes for normal-fault aftershocks near the Japan Trench are found to be strongly dependent on the slip on the shallow portion of the fault. This fact suggests the possibility that the slip on the shallow portion of the fault can be better constrained by combining information of the Coulomb stress change with other available data. The case of normal-fault aftershocks near some trench segment which are calculated to be negatively stressed shows such an example, suggesting that the actual slip on the shallow portion of the fault is larger than that inverted from GPS-derived coseismic displacements.

  8. Structural Laplacian Eigenmaps for modeling sets of multivariate sequences.

    PubMed

    Lewandowski, Michal; Makris, Dimitrios; Velastin, Sergio A; Nebel, Jean-Christophe

    2014-06-01

    A novel embedding-based dimensionality reduction approach, called structural Laplacian Eigenmaps, is proposed to learn models representing any concept that can be defined by a set of multivariate sequences. This approach relies on the expression of the intrinsic structure of the multivariate sequences in the form of structural constraints, which are imposed on dimensionality reduction process to generate a compact and data-driven manifold in a low dimensional space. This manifold is a mathematical representation of the intrinsic nature of the concept of interest regardless of the stylistic variability found in its instances. In addition, this approach is extended to model jointly several related concepts within a unified representation creating a continuous space between concept manifolds. Since a generated manifold encodes the unique characteristic of the concept of interest, it can be employed for classification of unknown instances of concepts. Exhaustive experimental evaluation on different datasets confirms the superiority of the proposed methodology to other state-of-the-art dimensionality reduction methods. Finally, the practical value of this novel dimensionality reduction method is demonstrated in three challenging computer vision applications, i.e., view-dependent and view-independent action recognition as well as human-human interaction classification. PMID:24144690

  9. Modeling RNA loops using sequence homology and geometric constraints

    PubMed Central

    Schudoma, Christian; May, Patrick; Walther, Dirk

    2010-01-01

    Summary: RNA loop regions are essential structural elements of RNA molecules influencing both their structural and functional properties. We developed RLooM, a web application for homology-based modeling of RNA loops utilizing template structures extracted from the PDB. RLooM allows the insertion and replacement of loop structures of a desired sequence into an existing RNA structure. Furthermore, a comprehensive database of loops in RNA structures can be accessed through the web interface. Availability and Implementation: The application was implemented in Python, MySQL and Apache. A web interface to the database and loop modeling application is freely available at http://rloom.mpimp-golm.mpg.de Contact: schudoma@mpimp-golm.mpg.de; may@mpimp-golm.mpg.de; walther@mpimp-golm.mpg.de PMID:20427516

  10. Modeling a bus through a sequence of traffic lights.

    PubMed

    Villalobos, Jorge; Muñoz, Víctor; Rogan, José; Zarama, Roberto; Penagos, Juan Felipe; Toledo, Benjamín; Valdivia, Juan Alejandro

    2015-07-01

    We propose a model of a bus traveling through a sequence of traffic lights, which is required to stop between the traffic signals to pick up passengers. A two dimensional model, of velocity and traveled time at each traffic light, is constructed, which shows non-trivial and chaotic behaviors for realistic city traffic parameters. We restrict the parameter values where these non-trivial and chaotic behaviors occur, by following analytically and numerically the fixed points and period 2 orbits. We define conditions where chaos may arise by determining regions in parameter space where the maximum Lyapunov exponent is positive. Chaos seems to occur as long as the ratio of the braking and accelerating capacities are greater than about ∼3.

  11. Modeling DNA sequence-based cis-regulatory gene networks.

    PubMed

    Bolouri, Hamid; Davidson, Eric H

    2002-06-01

    Gene network analysis requires computationally based models which represent the functional architecture of regulatory interactions, and which provide directly testable predictions. The type of model that is useful is constrained by the particular features of developmentally active cis-regulatory systems. These systems function by processing diverse regulatory inputs, generating novel regulatory outputs. A computational model which explicitly accommodates this basic concept was developed earlier for the cis-regulatory system of the endo16 gene of the sea urchin. This model represents the genetically mandated logic functions that the system executes, but also shows how time-varying kinetic inputs are processed in different circumstances into particular kinetic outputs. The same basic design features can be utilized to construct models that connect the large number of cis-regulatory elements constituting developmental gene networks. The ultimate aim of the network models discussed here is to represent the regulatory relationships among the genomic control systems of the genes in the network, and to state their functional meaning. The target site sequences of the cis-regulatory elements of these genes constitute the physical basis of the network architecture. Useful models for developmental regulatory networks must represent the genetic logic by which the system operates, but must also be capable of explaining the real time dynamics of cis-regulatory response as kinetic input and output data become available. Most importantly, however, such models must display in a direct and transparent manner fundamental network design features such as intra- and intercellular feedback circuitry; the sources of parallel inputs into each cis-regulatory element; gene battery organization; and use of repressive spatial inputs in specification and boundary formation. Successful network models lead to direct tests of key architectural features by targeted cis-regulatory analysis. PMID

  12. Universal Sequence Replication, Reversible Polymerization and Early Functional Biopolymers: A Model for the Initiation of Prebiotic Sequence Evolution

    PubMed Central

    Walker, Sara Imari; Grover, Martha A.; Hud, Nicholas V.

    2012-01-01

    Many models for the origin of life have focused on understanding how evolution can drive the refinement of a preexisting enzyme, such as the evolution of efficient replicase activity. Here we present a model for what was, arguably, an even earlier stage of chemical evolution, when polymer sequence diversity was generated and sustained before, and during, the onset of functional selection. The model includes regular environmental cycles (e.g. hydration-dehydration cycles) that drive polymers between times of replication and functional activity, which coincide with times of different monomer and polymer diffusivity. Template-directed replication of informational polymers, which takes place during the dehydration stage of each cycle, is considered to be sequence-independent. New sequences are generated by spontaneous polymer formation, and all sequences compete for a finite monomer resource that is recycled via reversible polymerization. Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that this proposed prebiotic scenario provides a robust mechanism for the exploration of sequence space. Introduction of a polymer sequence with monomer synthetase activity illustrates that functional sequences can become established in a preexisting pool of otherwise non-functional sequences. Functional selection does not dominate system dynamics and sequence diversity remains high, permitting the emergence and spread of more than one functional sequence. It is also observed that polymers spontaneously form clusters in simulations where polymers diffuse more slowly than monomers, a feature that is reminiscent of a previous proposal that the earliest stages of life could have been defined by the collective evolution of a system-wide cooperation of polymer aggregates. Overall, the results presented demonstrate the merits of considering plausible prebiotic polymer chemistries and environments that would have allowed for the rapid turnover of monomer resources and for regularly varying monomer

  13. Seismicity analysis of the Kachchh aftershock zone and tectonic implication for 26 Jan 2001 Bhuj earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatt, Kaushalendra Mangal; Hördt, Andreas; Kumar, Santosh

    2009-02-01

    We have carried out a detailed analysis of seismicity in the vicinity of the 26 Jan 2001 Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.7). From the depth sections of 24 parallel profiles, and from the b-value cross section, we claim the existence of a hidden fault which conjugates to the major rupture fault (i.e. North Wagad Fault) of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake. The proximity of the intersection of these faults to the focus suggests a close association Bhuj main shock generation. A circular pattern in the profiles also provides evidence for the existence of an intrusive, consistent with earlier findings from gravity-magnetic modeling and tomography studies. The location of the fault intersection within the intrusive support a model where both play a significant role in the earthquake generation. The intersection of the conjugate faults acts as a stress concentrator, while their presence within a big pluton possibly will facilitate the stress amplification. This mechanism might explain the occurrence of two Mw = 7.7 earthquakes in a relatively short time span of 182 years in the Kachchh rift. The b-value cross section displays high and low b-value patches along the two intersecting faults. This suggests a model of a faulted block that consists of two kinds of segment, the locked and the unlocked. Locked segments do not easily participate in creeping and therefore generate strong magnitude aftershocks (M > 3) while unlocked segments easily creep and result in only weak aftershocks (M < 3). The different fault segments with weak and strong magnitude gathers will result in high and low b-values, respectively.

  14. Structure of the Aftershock Zone of the Mw 7.0 Haiti Earthquake from the USGS-BME Portable Instrument Deployment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altidor, J.; Dieuseul, A.; Armbruster, J. G.; Benz, H.; Dietel, C.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Given, D.; Hough, S. E.; Ketchum, D.; Luetgert, J. H.; Maharrey, J. Z.; Meremonte, M. E.; McNamara, D. E.; Mildor, B. S.; Mooney, W. D.; Sell, R.

    2010-12-01

    Between mid-March and early-June 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with the Bureau des Mines et de l’Energie (BME) operated an 8-station network of high-gain, three-component continuously recording stations to record the aftershocks of the January 12, 2010 Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake. The stations were deployed to complement stations installed previously by USGS/EERI, Canadian and French teams. The USGS-BME deployment was specifically designed to improve the north-south control of epicentral locations and to investigate their association with the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden Fault and blind faults inferred from coastal uplift and InSAR imagery. Three of the instruments were located north of the aftershock zone, including one on the island La Gonave, and three were located on the southern coast of Haiti. The remaining two were deployed near the middle of the aftershock zone. P- and S- arrival times were jointly inverted for hypocenters and a layered crustal model using program VELEST. The epicenters are aligned along an 80-km-long belt striking parallel to, but distinctly north of the surface trace of the Enriquillo Fault. Well-constrained focal depths extend to at least 20 km depth. Epicentral locations are 10 or more km north of locations determined using teleseismic data and suggest that previously reported locations for the main shock and large aftershocks will need to be revised. The principal internal structure of the aftershock zone that can be resolved at present is a sharp southern boundary to the zone between 3 and 20 km depth that dips 75 degrees to the north with a surface projection that approximately coincides with the mapped trace of the Enriquillo Fault.

  15. Stellar winds on the main-sequence. I. Wind model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnstone, C. P.; Güdel, M.; Lüftinger, T.; Toth, G.; Brott, I.

    2015-05-01

    Aims: We develop a method for estimating the properties of stellar winds for low-mass main-sequence stars between masses of 0.4 M⊙ and 1.1 M⊙ at a range of distances from the star. Methods: We use 1D thermal pressure driven hydrodynamic wind models run using the Versatile Advection Code. Using in situ measurements of the solar wind, we produce models for the slow and fast components of the solar wind. We consider two radically different methods for scaling the base temperature of the wind to other stars: in Model A, we assume that wind temperatures are fundamentally linked to coronal temperatures, and in Model B, we assume that the sound speed at the base of the wind is a fixed fraction of the escape velocity. In Paper II of this series, we use observationally constrained rotational evolution models to derive wind mass loss rates. Results: Our model for the solar wind provides an excellent description of the real solar wind far from the solar surface, but is unrealistic within the solar corona. We run a grid of 1200 wind models to derive relations for the wind properties as a function of stellar mass, radius, and wind temperature. Using these results, we explore how wind properties depend on stellar mass and rotation. Conclusions: Based on our two assumptions about the scaling of the wind temperature, we argue that there is still significant uncertainty in how these properties should be determined. Resolution of this uncertainty will probably require both the application of solar wind physics to other stars and detailed observational constraints on the properties of stellar winds. In the final section of this paper, we give step by step instructions for how to apply our results to calculate the stellar wind conditions far from the stellar surface.

  16. The study of recent seismicity in the aftershock area of Neftegorsk earthquake using waveform cross correlation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitov, Ivan; Turuntaev, Sergey; Konovalov, Alexei; Stepnov, Andrey

    2016-04-01

    Unusually long duration of seismic activity (more than 20 years) was observed in the aftershock area of the 1995 Neftegorsk, Sakhalin, Russia catastrophic earthquake (Ms=7.6). To study the phenomena, we have processed seismic data from 130 events occurred within that area as measured between 2006 and 2015. In order to improve the accuracy of relative location and magnitude estimation of these events we have applied new techniques based on waveform cross correlation. We use 7 three-component (3-C) seismic stations which detected most of these events. Three-component waveform templates were prepared for these stations from those events which had signals with SNR>5 at vertical channels. The events with 3 and more templates are used as master-events for waveform cross correlation. Overall, the re-estimated location and magnitudes demonstrate higher precisions and are used for the statistical analysis and numerical modelling of seismo-tectonic regime within the studied zone.

  17. Aftershock activity of a M2 earthquake in a deep South African gold mine - spatial distribution and magnitude-frequency relation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naoi, M. M.; Nakatani, M.; Kwiatek, G.; Plenkers, K.; Yabe, Y.

    2009-12-01

    An earthquake of M 2.1 occurred on December 27, 2007 in a deep South African gold mine (Yabe et al., 2008). It occurred within a sensitive high frequency seismic network consisting of eight high frequency AE sensors (up to 200 kHz) and a tri-axial accelerometer (up to 25 kHz). Within 150 hours following the earthquake, our AE network detected more than 20,000 events within 250 m of the center of the network. We have located aftershocks assuming homogeneous medium (Fig. a), based on their manually-picked arrival times of P and S waves. This aftershock seismicity can be clearly separated into five clusters. Each sequence obeyed Omori ‘s law and had the similar p-value (p ~ 1.3). The cluster A in Fig. a is very planar. More than 90 % aftershocks of the cluster are within a 3 m thickness while the cluster has a lateral dimension of ~100m x 100m. The density of aftershocks normal to the planar cluster follows an exponential distribution with about 0.6 m characteristic length. The distribution of the cluster A coincides with one of the nodal planes of the main shock estimated by the waveform inversion. Hence, cluster A is thought to delineate the main rupture. Clusters B to E coincide with the edge of mining cavity or background seismicity recognized before the mainshock. Remarkable off-fault aftershock activities occurred only in these four areas. We have determined moment magnitude (Mw) of 17,350 earthquakes using AE waveforms (Mw > -5.4). As AE sensors have complex frequency characteristics, we use the amplitude in a narrow frequency band (2 - 4 kHz). Directivity of the AE sensor (~20 db) is corrected by comparison with the accelerometer record. Absolute magnitude has been given by an empirical relationship between AE amplitude and Mw determined by the spectral level of the accelerometer record. Mw determination from accelerometer record was done for ~ 0.5 % of aftershocks detected by AE sensors. Moment magnitudes of these selected earthquakes resulted in values

  18. Sequence determination from overlapping fragments: a simple model of whole-genome shotgun sequencing.

    PubMed

    Derrida, Bernard; Fink, Thomas M A

    2002-02-11

    Assembling fragments randomly sampled from along a sequence is the basis of whole-genome shotgun sequencing, a technique used to map the DNA of the human and other genomes. We calculate the probability that a random sequence can be recovered from a collection of overlapping fragments. We provide an exact solution for an infinite alphabet and in the case of constant overlaps. For the general problem we apply two assembly strategies and give the probability that the assembly puzzle can be solved in the limit of infinitely many fragments. PMID:11863859

  19. Choosing between models of choosing between sequences: comments on Shidoji (1993)

    PubMed

    Rosenbaum, D A

    1994-06-01

    Previous studies have used a sequence choice procedure to explore the cognitive representations of forthcoming response sequences. Subjects choose as quickly as possible between memorized sequences, and differences in the choice reaction time for a given sequence as a function of the other possible sequence are used to model the structures and processes underlying the choice. In 1993 Shidoji reported experiments to distinguish between two models of choice. One model assumes a hierarchical editing process. The other model assumes that choice. One model assumes a hierarchical editing process. The other model assumes that choice time depends only on the total number of responses in the sequences to be distinguished. Shidoji argued that his data supported both models. He also suggested boundary conditions for the applicability of each model. I argue that the hierarchical editor model can account successfully for Shidoji's results.

  20. Estimating ETAS: the effects of truncation, missing data, and model assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seif, Stefanie; Mignan, Arnaud; Zechar, Jeremy; Werner, Maximilian; Wiemer, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe the occurrence of earthquakes in space and time, but there has been little discussion of the limits of, and influences on, its estimation. What has been established is that ETAS parameter estimates are influenced by missing data (e.g., earthquakes are not reliably detected during lively aftershock sequences) and by simplifying assumptions (e.g., that aftershocks are isotropically distributed). In this article, we investigate the effect of truncation: how do parameter estimates depend on the cut-off magnitude, Mcut, above which parameters are estimated? We analyze catalogs from southern California and Italy and find that parameter variations as a function of Mcut are caused by (i) changing sample size (which affects e.g. Omori's cconstant) or (ii) an intrinsic dependence on Mcut (as Mcut increases, absolute productivity and background rate decrease). We also explore the influence of another form of truncation - the finite catalog length - that can bias estimators of the branching ratio. Being also a function of Omori's p-value, the true branching ratio is underestimated by 45% to 5% for 1.05< p <1.2. Finite sample size affects the variation of the branching ratio estimates. Moreover, we investigate the effect of missing aftershocks and find that the ETAS productivity parameters (α and K0) and the Omoris c-value are significantly changed only for low Mcut=2.5. We further find that conventional estimation errors for these parameters, inferred from simulations that do not account for aftershock incompleteness, are underestimated by, on average, a factor of six.

  1. Complex faulting in the Quetta Syntaxis: fault source modeling of the October 28, 2008 earthquake sequence in Baluchistan, Pakistan, based on ALOS/PALSAR InSAR data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Usman, Muhammad; Furuya, Masato

    2015-09-01

    The Quetta Syntaxis in western Baluchistan, Pakistan, is the result of an oroclinal bend of the western mountain belt and serves as a junction for different faults. As this area also lies close to the left-lateral strike-slip Chaman fault, which marks the boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plates, the resulting seismological behavior of this regime is very complex. In the region of the Quetta Syntaxis, close to the fold and thrust belt of the Sulaiman and Kirthar Ranges, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.4 (Mw) occurred on October 28, 2008, which was followed by a doublet on the very next day. Six more shocks associated with these major events then occurred (one foreshock and five aftershocks), with moment magnitudes greater than 4. Numerous researchers have tried to explain the source of this sequence based on seismological, GPS, and Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT)/Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) data. Here, we used Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS)/Phased Array-type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) InSAR data sets from both ascending and descending orbits that allow us to more completely detect the deformation signals around the epicentral region. The results indicated that the shock sequence can be explained by two right-lateral and two left-lateral strike-slip faults that also included reverse slip. The right-lateral faults have a curved geometry. Moreover, whereas previous studies have explained the aftershock crustal deformation with a different fault source, we found that the same left-lateral segment of the conjugate fault was responsible for the aftershocks. We thus confirmed the complex surface deformation signals from the moderate-sized earthquake. Intra-plate crustal bending and shortening often seem to be accommodated as conjugate faulting, without any single preferred fault orientation. We also detected two possible landslide areas along with the crustal deformation pattern.

  2. The tectonic context of the destructive 2010-2011 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reyners, M.; Eberhart-Phillips, D. M.; Bannister, S. C.; Martin, S.

    2011-12-01

    The destructive Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence has resulted in 181 deaths and caused damage in the US$15 billion range. A dense network of accelerographs has recorded an exceptional set of strong ground motions, with peak ground accelerations reaching 1.26 g during the Mw 7.1 mainshock on 04 September 2010, 2.20 g during the Mw 6.2 aftershock on 22 February 2011, and 2.04 g during the Mw 6.0 aftershock on 13 June 2011. This ongoing sequence raises important questions about the hazard from infrequent intraplate earthquakes in low strain rate regions (a few mm/yr in the case of the Canterbury region), including: 1) Why was the shaking from these events so strong? 2) Why does this earthquake sequence continue to be so productive? 3) Would we expect a similar earthquake sequence in other low-strain regions? Here we investigate these questions by carrying out a fine scale 3-D tomographic inversion for crustal structure using arrival time data from aftershocks, regional seismicity and active source data. We carry out a series of gradational inversions, using the recently determined New Zealand nationwide 3-D seismic velocity model as our initial model. Our 3-D model shows that structural features shallow around the northern edge of Banks Peninsula, a basaltic shield volcano immediately south of the city of Christchurch that was active during the period 12 - 6 Myr ago. Our results suggest that crustal structure has played a first order role in the earthquake sequence. At approximately 10 km depth, we have a ca. 100 Myr-old plate boundary, marking the subduction thrust where the Hikurangi Plateau (a large igneous province) subducted under the edge of Gondwana. This plateau is extremely strong and has a very deep brittle-ductile transition - small earthquakes extend down to 35 km depth in the mafic plateau. The larger earthquakes in the sequence occurred within the greywacke and schist capping this strong plateau. The high stress drops and strong shaking from

  3. Location and local magnitude of the Tocopilla earthquake sequence of Northern Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuenzalida, A.; Lancieri, M.; Madariaga, R. I.; Sobiesiak, M.

    2010-12-01

    The Northern Chile gap is generally considered to the site of the next megathurst event in Chile. The Tocopilla earthquake of 14 November 2007 (Mw 7.8) and aftershock series broke the southern end of this gap. The Tocopilla event ruptured a narrow strip of 120 km of length and a width that (Peyrat et al.; Delouis et al. 2009) estimated as 30 km. The aftershock sequence comprises five large thrust events with magnitude greater than 6. The main aftershock of Mw 6.7 occurred on November 15, at 15:06 (UTM) seawards of the Mejillones Peninsula. One month later, on December 16 2007, a strong (Mw 6.8) intraplate event with slab-push mechanism occurred near the bottom of the rupture zone. These events represent a unique opportunity for the study of earthquakes in Northern Chile because of the quantity and quality of available data. In the epicentral area, the IPOC network was deployed by GFZ, CNRS/INSU and DGF before the main event. This is a digital, continuously recording network, equipped with both strong-motion and broad-band instrument. On 29 November 2007 a second network named “Task Force” (TF) was deployed by GFZ to study the aftershocks. This is a dense network, installed near the Mejillones peninsula. It is composed by 20 short-period instruments. The slab-push event of 16 december 2007 occurred in the middle of the area covered by the TF network. Aftershocks were detected using an automatic procedure and manually revised in order to pick P and S arrivals. In the 14-28 November period, we detected 635 events recorded at the IPOC network; and a further 552 events were detected between 29 November and 16 December before the slab-push event using the TF network. The events were located using a vertically layered velocity model (Husen et al. 1999), using the NLLoc software of Lomax et al. From the broadband data we estimated the moment magnitude from the displacement spectra of the events. From the short-period instruments we evaluated local magnitudes using the

  4. High-resolution relocation of aftershocks of the Mw 7.1 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake and implications for fault activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Syracuse, E. M.; Thurber, C. H.; Rawles, C. J.; Savage, M. K.; Bannister, S.

    2013-08-01

    Low-slip-rate regions often represent under-recognized hazards, and understanding the progression of seismicity when faults in such areas rupture will help us to better understand earthquake rupture patterns. The 3 September 2010 (UTC) Mw 7.1 Darfield earthquake revealed a formerly unrecognized set of faults in the Canterbury region of New Zealand, an area that had previously been mapped as one of the lower-hazard areas in the country. In this study, we analyze the first four months of its aftershock sequence to identify active faults and temporal changes in seismicity along them. We jointly invert for three-dimensional P wave and S wave velocities and hypocentral locations, using data for 2840 aftershocks recorded at 36 temporary and permanent seismic stations within 70 km of the main shock epicenter. These relocations delineate eight individual faults active prior to the 22 February 2011 Mw 6.3 Christchurch earthquake, the largest aftershock of the Darfield earthquake. Two of these faults are in the Christchurch region, one of which corresponds to geodetically determined rupture planes of the Christchurch earthquake. Using focal mechanisms calculated from first-motion polarities, we find mainly strike-slip faulting events, with some reverse and normal faulting events as well. We compare the orientations of these faults to the prevailing regional stress directions to identify which faults may have been active prior to the Darfield earthquake and which may be newly developed.

  5. Quantifying Aluminum Crystal Size Part 2: The Model-Development Sequence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hjalmarson, Margret; Diefes-Dux, Heidi A.; Bowman, Keith; Zawojewski, Judith S.

    2006-01-01

    We have designed model-development sequences using a common context to provide authentic problem-solving experiences for first-year students. The model-development sequence takes a model-eliciting activity a step further by engaging students in the exploration and adaptation of a mathematical model (e.g., procedure, algorithm, method) for solving…

  6. Maximal radius of the aftershock zone in earthquake networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mezentsev, A. Yu.; Hayakawa, M.

    2009-09-01

    In this paper, several seismoactive regions were investigated (Japan, Southern California and two tectonically distinct Japanese subregions) and structural seismic constants were estimated for each region. Using the method for seismic clustering detection proposed by Baiesi and Paczuski [M. Baiesi, M. Paczuski, Phys. Rev. E 69 (2004) 066106; M. Baiesi, M. Paczuski, Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. (2005) 1607-7946], we obtained the equation of the aftershock zone (AZ). It was shown that the consideration of a finite velocity of seismic signal leads to the natural appearance of maximal possible radius of the AZ. We obtained the equation of maximal radius of the AZ as a function of the magnitude of the main event and estimated its values for each region.

  7. Cataloging the 1811-1812 New Madrid, central U.S., earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.

    2009-01-01

    The three principal New Madrid, central U.S., mainshocks of 1811-1812 were followed by extensive aftershock sequences that included numerous felt events. Although no instrumental data are available for the sequence, historical accounts provide information that can be used to estimate magnitudes and locations for the large aftershocks as well as the mainshocks. Several detailed eyewitness accounts of the sequence provide sufficient information to identify times and rough magnitude estimates for a number of aftershocks that have not been analyzed previously. I also use three extended compilations of felt events to explore the overall sequence productivity. Although one generally cannot estimate magnitudes or locations for individual events, the intensity distributions of recent, instrumentally recorded earthquakes in the region provide a basis for estimation of the magnitude distribution of 1811-1812 aftershocks. The distribution is consistent with a b-value distribution. I estimate Mw 6-6.3 for the three largest identifiable aftershocks, apart from the so-called dawn aftershock on 16 December 1811.

  8. Detailed fault structure of the 2000 Western Tottori, Japan, earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fukuyama, E.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Waldhauser, F.; Kubo, A.

    2003-01-01

    We investigate the faulting process of the aftershock region of the 2000 western Tottori earthquake (Mw 6.6) by combining aftershock hypocenters and moment tensor solutions. Aftershock locations were precisely determined by the double difference method using P- and S-phase arrival data of the Japan Meteorological Agency unified catalog. By combining the relocated hypocenters and moment tensor solutions of aftershocks by broadband waveform inversion of FREESIA (F-net), we successfully resolved very detailed fault structures activated by the mainshock. The estimated fault model resolves 15 individual fault segments that are consistent with both aftershock distribution and focal mechanism solutions. Rupture in the mainshock was principally confined to the three fault elements in the southern half of the zone, which is also where the earliest aftershocks concentrate. With time, the northern part of the zone becomes activated, which is also reflected in the postseismic deformation field. From the stress tensor analysis of aftershock focal mechanisms, we found a rather uniform stress field in the aftershock region, although fault strikes were scattered. The maximum stress direction is N107??E, which is consistent with the tectonic stress field in this region. In the northern part of the fault, where no slip occurred during the mainshock but postseismic slip was observed, the maximum stress direction of N130??E was possible as an alternative solution of stress tensor inversion.

  9. The 2012 Sumatra great earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duputel, Zacharie; Kanamori, Hiroo; Tsai, Victor C.; Rivera, Luis; Meng, Lingsen; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Stock, Joann M.

    2012-10-01

    The equatorial Indian Ocean is a well known place of active intraplate deformation defying the conventional view of rigid plates separated by narrow boundaries where deformation is confined. On 11 April 2012, this region was hit in a couple of hours by two of the largest strike-slip earthquakes ever recorded (moment magnitudes Mw=8.6 and 8.2). Broadband seismological observations of the Mw=8.6 mainshock indicate a large centroid depth (˜30 km) and remarkable rupture complexity. Detailed study of the surface-wave directivity and moment rate functions clearly indicates the partition of the rupture into at least two distinct subevents. To account for these observations, we developed a procedure to invert for multiple-point-source parameters. The optimum source model at long period consists of two point sources separated by about 209 km with magnitudes Mw=8.5 and 8.3. To explain the remaining discrepancies between predicted and observed surface waves, we can refine this model by adding directivity along the WNW-ESE axis. However, we do not exclude more complicated models. To analyze the Mw=8.2 aftershock, we removed the perturbation due to large surface-wave arrivals of the Mw=8.6 mainshock by subtracting the corresponding synthetics computed for the two-subevent model. Analysis of the surface-wave amplitudes suggests that the Mw=8.2 aftershock had a large centroid depth between 30 km and 40 km. This major earthquake sequence brings a new perspective to the seismotectonics of the equatorial Indian Ocean and reveals active deep lithospheric deformation.

  10. Should Coulomb stress change calculations be used to forecast aftershocks and to influence earthquake probability estimates? (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parsons, T.

    2009-12-01

    After a large earthquake, our concern immediately moves to the likelihood that another large shock could be triggered, threatening an already weakened building stock. A key question is whether it is best to map out Coulomb stress change calculations shortly after mainshocks to potentially highlight the most likely aftershock locations, or whether it is more prudent to wait until the best information is available. It has been shown repeatedly that spatial aftershock patterns can be matched with Coulomb stress change calculations a year or more after mainshocks. However, with the onset of rapid source slip model determinations, the method has produced encouraging results like the M=8.7 earthquake that was forecast using stress change calculations from 2004 great Sumatra earthquake by McCloskey et al. [2005]. Here, I look back at two additional prospective calculations published shortly after the 2005 M=7.6 Kashmir and 2008 M=8.0 Wenchuan earthquakes. With the benefit of 1.5-4 years of additional seismicity, it is possible to assess the performance of rapid Coulomb stress change calculations. In the second part of the talk, within the context of the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) assessments, uncertainties associated with time-dependent probability calculations are convolved with uncertainties inherent to Coulomb stress change calculations to assess the strength of signal necessary for a physics-based calculation to merit consideration into a formal earthquake forecast. Conclusions are as follows: (1) subsequent aftershock occurrence shows that prospective static stress change calculations both for Kashmir and Wenchuan examples failed to adequately predict the spatial post-mainshock earthquake distributions. (2) For a San Andreas fault example with relatively well-understood recurrence, a static stress change on the order of 30 to 40 times the annual stressing rate would be required to cause a significant (90%) perturbation to the

  11. Investigation of the high-frequency attenuation parameter, κ (kappa), from aftershocks of the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Neighbors, Corrie; Liao, E. J.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Funning, G. J.; Chung, A. I.; Lawrence, J. F.; Christensen, C. M.; Miller, M.; Belmonte, A.; Sepulveda, H. H. Andrés

    2014-01-01

    The Bío Bío region of Chile experienced a vigorous aftershock sequence following the 2010 February 27 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake. The immediate aftershock sequence was captured by two temporary seismic deployments: the Quake Catcher Network Rapid Aftershock Mobilization Program (QCN RAMP) and the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology CHile Aftershock Mobilization Program (IRIS CHAMP). Here, we use moderate to large aftershocks (ML ≥ 4.0) occurring between 2010 March 1 and June 30 recorded by QCN RAMP and IRIS CHAMP stations to determine the spectral decay parameter, kappa (κ). First, we compare waveforms and κ estimates from the lower-resolution QCN stations to the IRIS CHAMP stations to ensure the QCN data are of sufficient quality. We find that QCN stations provide reasonable estimates of κ in comparison to traditional seismic sensors and provide valuable additional observations of local ground motion variation. Using data from both deployments, we investigate the variation in κ for the region to determine if κ is influenced primarily by local geological structure, path attenuation, or source properties (e.g. magnitude, mechanism and depth). Estimates of κ for the Bío Bío region range from 0.0022 to 0.0704 s with a mean of 0.0295 s and are in good agreement with κ values previously reported for similar tectonic environments. κ correlates with epicentral distance and, to a lesser degree, with source magnitude. We find little to no correlation between the site kappa, κ0, and mapped geology, although we were only able to compare the data to a low-resolution map of surficial geology. These results support an increasing number of studies that suggest κobservations can be attributed to a combination of source, path and site properties; additionally, measured κ are often highly scattered making it difficult to separate the contribution from each of these factors. Thus, our results suggest that contributions from the site

  12. Incorporating fault mechanics into inversions of aftershock data for the regional remote stress, with application to the 1992 Landers, California earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maerten, Frantz; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Pollard, David D.; Maerten, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    We present a new stress inversion algorithm that accounts for the physics relating the remote stress, slip along complex faults, and aftershock focal mechanisms, in a linear-elastic, heterogeneous, isotropic whole- or half-space. For each new remote stress, the solution of the simulation is obtained by the superposition of three pre-calculated solutions, leading to a constant time evaluation. Consequently, the full three-dimensional boundary element method model need not be recomputed and is independent of the structural complexity of the underlying model. Using a synthetic model, we evaluate several different measures of fit, or cost functions, between aftershocks and model results. Cost functions that account for aftershock slip direction provide good constraint on the remote stress, while functions that evaluate only nodal plane orientations do not. Inversion results are stable for values of friction ≤ 0.5 on mainshock faults. We demonstrate the technique by recovering the remote stress regime at the time of the 1992 M 7.3 Landers, California earthquake from its aftershocks and find that the algorithm performs well relative to methods that invert earthquakes occurring prior to the Landers mainshock. In the mechanical inversion, incorporating fault structures is necessary, but small differences in fault geometries do not impact these inversion results. Each inversion provides a complete solution for an earthquake as output, including fault slip and the stress and deformation fields around the fault(s). This allows for many additional datasets to be used as input, including fault surface slip, GPS data, InSAR data, and/or secondary fracture orientations.

  13. Rupture Characteristics and Aftershocks of the July 15, 2003 Carlsberg `H' (Indian Ocean) Mw 7.6 Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antolik, M.; Abercrombie, R. E.; Pan, J.; Ekstrom, G.

    2003-12-01

    The occurrence of a Mw 7.6 earthquake near the Carlsberg ridge (15 July, 2003) provides valuable information about earthquake rupture processes in oceanic lithosphere, which are not well understood, and the distributed deformation of the India-Australia plate. The earthquake had a strike-slip mechanism opposite to that of the transform faults on the ridge, and appears to have ruptured a fracture zone (designated as `H' by Royer et al., 1997) within the India-Australia composite plate. We examine the rupture characteristics of this earthquake using the full spectrum of seismic radiation. Inversion of the body waves indicates rapid rupture propagation toward the NE, away from the Carlsberg Ridge, for a distance of ˜200 km. The average rupture velocity is well constrained and is ˜3.6 km s-1. The total source duration is ˜60 s; however, nearly all of the moment release occurs in the last 30 s. The age of the lithosphere in the area of largest moment is release is 10-15 Ma. The body waves can be well fit with a simple rupture model and no jump of fracture zones is required, as has been suggested for some oceanic earthquakes (e.g., McGuire et al., 1996). The source process is very similar to the well-studied 1994 Mw 7.0 earthquake along the Romanche transform in the equatorial Atlantic (Abercrombie and Ekström, 2001). We also analyze the aftershock distribution using multiple-hypocenter relocation techniques and moment-tensor analysis using intermediate-period surface waves. Only 15 aftershocks (M > 4.5) are listed in the USGS catalog, which is typical of large oceanic earthquakes (e.g., Boettcher and Jordan, 2001). Moment tensors obtained from five of the aftershocks show a diversity of focal mechanisms. We interpret a cluster of aftershocks located at ˜1o S as representing extension which results from the stress field of the mainshock at the end of the rupture. This interpretation is consistent with the 200-km rupture length inferred from body waves. The focal

  14. Subduction earthquake deformation associated with 14 November 2007, Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake in Chile: Results from InSAR and aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Motagh, Mahdi; Schurr, Bernd; Anderssohn, Jan; Cailleau, Beatrice; Walter, Thomas R.; Wang, Rongjiang; Villotte, Jean-Pierre

    2010-07-01

    On 14 November 2007, a subduction thrust earthquake, magnitude Mw = 7.8, occurred in the coastal region of northern Chile, causing substantial damage to the city of Tocopilla. We investigate the source fault of the earthquake, slip distribution and fault interaction by integrating aftershock locations, satellite interferometry data and stress model simulations. Aftershock measurements allow us to locate the area and geometry of the rupture plane in the coastal region between the cities of Tocopilla and Antofagasta. Combining two satellite viewing geometries, acquired in Envisat's Wide Swath and Image modes, we observe decimetre-scale coseismic deformation. The maximum line-of-sight displacement is found to be about 40 cm, located at the Mejillones Peninsula. Slip inversions using elastic half-space models with geometry constrained by aftershocks suggest rupturing of an area of ˜ 160 km by ˜50 km along the Nazca -South America convergent margin between latitudes 22°S and 23.5°S. The main slip is concentrated on two asperities, the largest being located in the southern part of the rupture area at a depth of approximately 30-50 km with a magnitude of about 2.5 m. Because aftershock distribution may also suggest a region of shallow crustal deformation activity located offshore, we investigate whether the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake also involved shallow crustal fault slip offshore. Although we find that the latter assumption is supported by Coulomb stress modelling and geologic inferences, our geodetic and seismic data provide insufficient constraints to resolve the exact geometry and kinematics of dislocation on this structure.

  15. Reference genome sequence of the model plant Setaria

    SciTech Connect

    Bennetzen, Jeffrey L; Yang, Xiaohan; Ye, Chuyu; Tuskan, Gerald A

    2012-01-01

    We generated a high-quality reference genome sequence for foxtail millet (Setaria italica). The {approx}400-Mb assembly covers {approx}80% of the genome and >95% of the gene space. The assembly was anchored to a 992-locus genetic map and was annotated by comparison with >1.3 million expressed sequence tag reads. We produced more than 580 million RNA-Seq reads to facilitate expression analyses. We also sequenced Setaria viridis, the ancestral wild relative of S. italica, and identified regions of differential single-nucleotide polymorphism density, distribution of transposable elements, small RNA content, chromosomal rearrangement and segregation distortion. The genus Setaria includes natural and cultivated species that demonstrate a wide capacity for adaptation. The genetic basis of this adaptation was investigated by comparing five sequenced grass genomes. We also used the diploid Setaria genome to evaluate the ongoing genome assembly of a related polyploid, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum).

  16. Reference genome sequence of the model plant Setaria

    SciTech Connect

    Bennetzen, Jeffrey L; Schmutz, Jeremy; Wang, Hao; Percifield, Ryan; Hawkins, Jennifer; Pontaroli, Ana C.; Estep, Matt; Feng, Liang; Vaughn, Justin N; Grimwood, Jane; Jenkins, Jerry; Barry, Kerrie; Lindquist, Erika; Hellsten, Uffe; Deshpande, Shweta; Wang, Xuewen; Wu, Xiaomei; Mitros, Therese; Triplett, Jimmy; Yang, Xiaohan; Ye, Chuyu; Mauro-Herrera, Margarita; Wang, Lin; Li, Pinghua; Sharma, Manoj; Sharma, Rita; Ronald, Pamela; Panaud, Olivier; Kellogg, Elizabeth A.; Brutnell, Thomas P.; Doust, Andrew N.; Tuskan, Gerald A; Rokhsar, Daniel; Devos, Katrien M

    2012-01-01

    We generated a high-quality reference genome sequence for foxtail millet (Setaria italica). The ~400-Mb assembly covers ~80% of the genome and >95% of the gene space. The assembly was anchored to a 992-locus genetic map and was annotated by comparison with >1.3 million expressed sequence tag reads. We produced more than 580 million RNA-Seq reads to facilitate expression analyses. We also sequenced Setaria viridis, the ancestral wild relative of S. italica, and identified regions of differential single-nucleotide polymorphism density, distribution of transposable elements, small RNA content, chromosomal rearrangement and segregation distortion. The genus Setaria includes natural and cultivated species that demonstrate a wide capacity for adaptation. The genetic basis of this adaptation was investigated by comparing five sequenced grass genomes. We also used the diploid Setaria genome to evaluate the ongoing genome assembly of a related polyploid, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum).

  17. Analysis of Mw 7.2 2014 Molucca Sea earthquake and its aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiddiqi, Hasbi Ash; Widiyantoro, Sri; Nugraha, Andri Dian; Ramdhan, Mohamad; Wiyono, Samsul Hadi; Wandono, Wandono

    2016-05-01

    A Mw 7.2 earthquake struck an area in the Molucca Sea region on November 15, 2014, and was followed by more than 300 aftershocks until the end of December 2014. This earthquake was the second largest event in the Molucca Sea during the last decade and was well recorded by local networks. Although the seismicity rate of the aftershocks was declining at the end of 2014, several significant earthquakes with magnitude (Mw) larger than five still occurred from January to May 2015 within the vicinity of the mainshock location. In this study, we investigated the earthquake process and its relation to the increasing seismicity in the Molucca Sea within six months after the earthquake. We utilized teleseismic double-difference hypocenter relocation method using local, regional, and teleseismic direct body-wave arrival times of 514 earthquakes from the time of mainshock occurrence to May 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the focal mechanism solutions from the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), Japan. From our results, we observed that aftershocks propagated along the NNE-SSW direction within a 100 km fault segment length of the Mayu Ridge. The highest number of the aftershocks was located in the SSW direction of the main event. The aftershocks were terminated at around 60 km depth, which may represent the location of the top of the Molucca Sea Plate (MSP). Between January and May 2015, several significant earthquakes propagated westward and were extended to the Molucca Sea slab. From focal mechanism catalog, we found that the mainshock mechanism was reverse with strike 192o and dip 55o. While most of the large aftershock mechanisms were consistent with the main event, several aftershocks had reverse, oblique mechanisms. Stress inversion result from focal mechanism data revealed that the maximum stress direction was SE and was not perpendicular with fault direction. We suggest that the non-perpendicular maximum stress caused several

  18. Does Fluid Migration Explain The 1997 Umbria-Marche (Central Italy) Seismic Sequence?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiaraluce, L.; Piccinini, D.; Antonioli, A.; Cocco, M.

    2005-12-01

    We model the spatial and temporal evolution of seismicity during the 1997 Umbria-Marche (central Italy) seismic sequence in terms of subsequent failures promoted by fluid flow. This seismic sequence is characterized by six earthquakes with 5 < Mw < 6 and by an aftershocks sequence of thousand of events in a time span of few months. All the maishocks and most of the aftershocks show very similar focal mechanisms, characterized by normal faults on SW shallow dipping planes. The seismic sequence is characterized by an evident migration of seismicity along the strike of the main fault structure from NW toward SE The diffusion process of pore-pressure relaxation is modeled as a pressure pulse generated by coseismic stress perturbations and propagating through a fluid saturated medium. The time interval between subsequent instabilities can be written as t= Xt * D-1 * X, where X is the inter-distance between the first (origin) event and following ones and D represents the diffusivity tensor, which depends on the permeability and porosity. The time interval t is measured from the origin time of the first event of the sequence, which is chosen as origin of the time-space coordinates This model allows the determination of diffusivity for both an isotropic and anisotropic poro-elastic medium. The estimated value of isotropic diffusivity for the whole sequence is D_{iso ≍ 50 m2/s. Diffusivity is largest along the average strike (N140°) direction of activated faults yielding an anisotropic value of Daniso ≥q 250 m2/s. Our results suggest that the observed spatio-temporal migration of seismicity is driven by fluid flow.

  19. A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach to Seismic Hazard Modeling Using the ETAS Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, G.

    2015-12-01

    The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is one of the most popular tools for modeling seismicity and quantifying risk in earthquake-prone regions. Under the ETAS model, the occurrence times of earthquakes are treated as a self-exciting Poisson process where each earthquake briefly increases the probability of subsequent earthquakes occurring soon afterwards, which captures the fact that large mainshocks tend to produce long sequences of aftershocks. A triggering kernel controls the amount by which the probability increases based on the magnitude of each earthquake, and the rate at which it then decays over time. This triggering kernel is usually chosen heuristically, to match the parametric form of the modified Omori law for aftershock decay. However recent work has questioned whether this is an appropriate choice. Since the choice of kernel has a large impact on the predictions made by the ETAS model, avoiding misspecification is crucially important. We present a novel nonparametric version of ETAS which avoids making parametric assumptions, and instead learns the correct specification from the data itself. Our approach is based on the Dirichlet process, which is a modern class of Bayesian prior distribution which allows for efficient inference over an infinite dimensional space of functions. We show how our nonparametric ETAS model can be fit to data, and present results demonstrating that the fit is greatly improved compared to the standard parametric specification. Additionally, we explain how our model can be used to perform probabilistic declustering of earthquake catalogs, to classify earthquakes as being either aftershocks or mainshocks. and to learn the causal relations between pairs of earthquakes.

  20. Aftershock and induced seismic activity of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake in the northern part of Tohoku district, NE Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosuga, M.; Watanabe, K.

    2011-12-01

    We investigated the seismic activity around the northern neighbor of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw 9.0) with special attention to a potential large aftershock in the area. We obtained a combined data set by adding our manually-picked locations to the catalog locations by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The hypocenter distribution delineates active and inactive bands of seismicity. The band of low seismicity corresponds to a zone of a large seismic slip, indicating that aftershocks occurred in peripheral neighbors of the mainshock asperity. The broad band of active seismicity along the coast corresponds to the zone of a large postseismic slip, suggesting the enhancement of the aftershock activity by the slip. Although the northern neighbor of the mainshock fault is a favored region of increased seismicity, as shown from a Coulomb stress calculation, no significant seismic activity is observed within the potential source area except along the Japan Trench and the SW corner. This implies that the zone of interplate moment release by previous large earthquakes and the subsequent slow slip acted as a barrier to the migration of both the mainshock rupture and aftershock activity. However, an aftershock area in the zone may reflect inhomogeneous moment release by past seismic and aseismic sequences. Induced inland seismicity is quite high in the Akita Prefecture on the Japan Sea side apart more than 100 km from the mainshock fault. There are some active clusters including moderate earthquakes with magnitude greater than 5. They are newly formed clusters after the mainshock, while the seismicity of previously active areas decreased significantly. Focal mechanism solutions of earthquakes in the new clusters show the types of strike-slip with consistently NW-SE trending T-axes. The predominant type of focal mechanisms in the Akita area before the mainshock was E-W compressional reverse faulting. Thus the stress field in the area has changed

  1. Modeling of the Nano- and Picoseismicity Rate Changes Resulting from Static Stress Triggering due to Small (MW2.2) Event Recorded at Mponeng Deep Gold Mine, South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozlowska, M.; Orlecka-Sikora, B.; Kwiatek, G.; Boettcher, M. S.; Dresen, G. H.

    2014-12-01

    Static stress changes following large earthquakes are known to affect the rate and spatio-temporal distribution of the aftershocks. Here we utilize a unique dataset of M ≥ -3.4 earthquakes following a MW 2.2 earthquake in Mponeng gold mine, South Africa, to investigate this process for nano- and pico- scale seismicity at centimeter length scales in shallow, mining conditions. The aftershock sequence was recorded during a quiet interval in the mine and thus enabled us to perform the analysis using Dietrich's (1994) rate and state dependent friction law. The formulation for earthquake productivity requires estimation of Coulomb stress changes due to the mainshock, the reference seismicity rate, frictional resistance parameter, and the duration of aftershock relaxation time. We divided the area into six depth intervals and for each we estimated the parameters and modeled the spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity rates after the stress perturbation. Comparing the modeled patterns of seismicity with the observed distribution we found that while the spatial patterns match well, the rate of modeled aftershocks is lower than the observed rate. To test our model, we used four metrics of the goodness-of-fit evaluation. Testing procedure allowed rejecting the null hypothesis of no significant difference between seismicity rates only for one depth interval containing the mainshock, for the other, no significant differences have been found. Results show that mining-induced earthquakes may be followed by a stress relaxation expressed through aftershocks located on the rupture plane and in regions of positive Coulomb stress change. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the main features of the temporal and spatial distribution of very small, mining-induced earthquakes at shallow depths can be successfully determined using rate- and state-based stress modeling.

  2. Insights into induced earthquakes and aftershock activity with in-situ measurements of seismic velocity variations in an active underground mine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brenguier, F.; Olivier, G.; Campillo, M.; Roux, P.; Shapiro, N.; Lynch, R.

    2015-12-01

    The behaviour of the crust shortly after large earthquakes has been the subject of numerous studies, but many co- and post-seismic processes remain poorly understood. Damage and healing of the bulk rock mass, post-seismic deformation and the mechanisms of earthquake triggering are still not well understood. These processes are important to properly model and understand the behaviour of faults and earthquake cycles.In this presentation, we will show how in-situ measurements of seismic velocity variations have given new insights into these co- and post-seismic processes. An experiment was performed where a blast was detonated in a tunnel in an underground mine, while seismic velocity variations were accurately (0.005 %) measured with ambient seismic noise correlations. Additionally, aftershock activity was examined and the influence of the removal of a piece of solid rock was estimated with elastic static stress modelling. The majority of the aftershocks were delayed with respect to the passing of the dynamic waves from the blast, while the locations of the aftershocks appeared clustered and not homogeneously spread around the blast location. A significant velocity drop is visible during the time of the blast, which is interpreted as co-seismic damage and plastic deformation. These non-elastic effects are healed by the confining stresses over a period of 5 days until the seismic velocity converges to a new baseline level. The instantaneous weakening and gradual healing observed from the velocity variations are qualitatively similar to results reported in laboratory studies. The change in the baseline level of the seismic velocity before and after the blast indicate a change in the static stress that is comparable to the results of elastic static stress modelling. The differences between the elastic model predictions and the seismic velocity variations could be due to zones of fractured rock, indicated by the spatial clustering of the aftershocks, that are not

  3. Aftershock Records in the Kathmandu Valley of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shigefuji, M.; Takai, N.; Sasatani, T.; Bijukchhen, S.; Ichiyanagi, M.; Rajaure, S.; Dhital, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    The devastating earthquake, named the Gorkha Earthquake, was followed by a series of aftershocks: more than 350 of them greater than M 4 and four aftershock greater than M 6. The rupture of main shock originating 80 km NW of capital Kathmandu propagated towards east. The ensuing aftershock activities are concentrated in the eastern part of the rupture area. The aftershock of Mw 6.6 occurred about half an hour later at epicentre near to that of the main shock. The other three large aftershocks however, were originated in the eastern extreme of the rupture zone. The aftershock of Mw 7.3 that occurred on 12th May 2015 brought about more damages to infrastructures already vulnerable due to the main shock. To understand the site effect of the Kathmandu valley structure, we installed continuous recording accelerometers in four different parts of the valley. Four stations were installed along a west-to-east profile of the valley at KTP (Kirtipur; hill top), TVU (Kirtipur; hill side), PTN (Patan) and THM (Thimi). The surface S-wave velocity of the KTP site was over 700 cm s-1, but for each of the other three sites it was less than 200 cm s-1. These velocities are consistent with the geological formations; KTP is above hard rock, and TVU, PTN and THM are over the lake sediment of the valley. It is normal for the amplitude of earthquake motion to be larger in areas lying above sedimentary soil than in areas above hard rock, and these motions can be amplified further by certain deep underground structures. To know deep underground structure using with aftershock records, we installed more four instruments in the Kathmandu basin after main shock. We analysed the strong-motion data of these five aftershocks recorded in the eight strong-motion accelerometers. The station of KTP is considered as reference site to compare the effect of sediments on the earthquake waves. The large aftershocks all have highest Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) at TVU and the station of KTP showed the least

  4. A preliminary study of the Santa Barbara, California, earthquake of August 13, 1978, and its major aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, William Hung Kan; Johnson, C.E.; Henyey, T.L.; Yerkes, R.L.

    1978-01-01

    The ML5.1 Santa Barbara earthquake of August 13, 1978 occurred at lat 34 ? 22.2'N., long 119 ? 43.0' 4 km south of Santa Barbara, Calif. at a depth of 12.5 km in the northeast Santa Barbara Channel, part of the western Transverse Ranges geomorphic-structural province. This part of the province is characterized by seismically active, east-trending reverse faults and rates of coastal uplift that have averaged up to about 10 m/1000 years over the last 45,000 years. No surface rupture was detected onshore. Subsurface rupture propagated northwest from the main shock toward Goleta, 15 km west of Santa Barbara, where a maximum acceleration of 0.44 g was measured at ground level and extensive minor damage occurred; only minor injuries were reported. A fairly well-constrained fault-plane solution of the main shock and distribution of the aftershocks indicate that left-reverse-oblique slip occurred on west-northwest-trending, north-dipping reverse faults; inadequate dip control precludes good correlation with any one of several mapped faults. Had the earthquake been larger and rupture propagated to the southeast or a greater distance to the northwest, it could have posed a hazard to oilfield operations. The fault-plane solution and aftershock pattern closely fit the model of regional deformation and the solution closely resembles those of five previously mapped events located within a 15-km radius.

  5. Source Properties of Repeating Small Earthquakes in the Aftershock Zones of the 1999 Izmit and Duzce Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben-Zion, Y.; Peng, Z.

    2006-12-01

    We estimate the source parameters of repeating small earthquakes in the aftershock zones of the 1999 Mw7.4 Izmit and Mw7.1 Duzce earthquakes. The analysis employs 36 sets of highly repeating earthquakes, ranging in size from M 0 to M 3.0, that occurred from August 1999 to February 2000 along the Karadere-Duzce segment of the north Anatolian fault [Peng and Ben-Zion, 2006]. A local PASSCAL network consisting of 10 short-period stations recorded the data. We compute spectra from each seismogram using a multitaper technique. We measure the difference between events by dividing the spectra of the each individual record to the average spectra at that station [Vidale et al., 1994]. Stable spectra ratios are obtained by stacking the ratios calculated from moving windows starting from the P waves to the S-coda waves [Imanishi and Ellsworth, 2006]. Next, we estimate the seismic potencies and corner frequencies for events in each cluster using a simple source model. The continuing work will focus on deriving static stress drops, apparent stresses and radiated energy of these repeating earthquakes. A comparison of the source properties of the repeating small earthquakes with those of large aftershocks and the Duzce main shock would allow us to examine whether there are systematic variations with location and/or size.

  6. Aftershock mechanisms from the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake: detailed analysis using full waveform inversion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rietbrock, A.; Hicks, S. P.; Chagas, B.; Detzel, H. A.

    2014-12-01

    Since the earthquake rupture process is extremely heterogeneous, it is vital to understand how structural variations in the overriding plate and downgoing slab may control slip style along the subduction megathrust. The large-scale 3-D geometry of subduction plate boundaries is rapidly becoming well understood; however, the nature of any finer-scale structure along the plate interface remains elusive. A detailed study of earthquake source mechanisms along a megathrust region can shed light on the nature of fine-scale structures along the megathrust. The Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake that struck central Chile in 2010 is the sixth largest earthquake ever recorded. Following the earthquake, there was an international deployment of seismic stations in the rupture area, making this one of the best datasets of an aftershock sequence following a large earthquake. This dataset provides a unique opportunity to perform a detailed study of megathrust earthquake source mechanisms. Based on a high-resolution 3-D velocity model and robust earthquake locations [Hicks et al., 2014], we calculate regional moment tensors using the ISOLA software package [Sokos & Zahradnik, 2008]. We incorporate accelerometer recordings, important for constraining solutions of large earthquakes in the overriding plate. We also validate the robustness of our solutions by assessing the consistency of mechanisms with P-wave polarities observed at both onshore and offshore seismic stations, and compare them to already published solutions. We find that accurate earthquake locations are vital for the fine-scale interpretation of focal mechanisms, particularly for offshore events. Our results show that most moment tensor solutions with thrusting mechanisms have a nodal plane dipping parallel to the subducting plate interface. Interestingly, we also find earthquakes with normal faulting mechanisms lying along to the megathrust plate interface in the south of the rupture area. This finding suggests that megathrust

  7. Probabilistic topic modeling for the analysis and classification of genomic sequences

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Studies on genomic sequences for classification and taxonomic identification have a leading role in the biomedical field and in the analysis of biodiversity. These studies are focusing on the so-called barcode genes, representing a well defined region of the whole genome. Recently, alignment-free techniques are gaining more importance because they are able to overcome the drawbacks of sequence alignment techniques. In this paper a new alignment-free method for DNA sequences clustering and classification is proposed. The method is based on k-mers representation and text mining techniques. Methods The presented method is based on Probabilistic Topic Modeling, a statistical technique originally proposed for text documents. Probabilistic topic models are able to find in a document corpus the topics (recurrent themes) characterizing classes of documents. This technique, applied on DNA sequences representing the documents, exploits the frequency of fixed-length k-mers and builds a generative model for a training group of sequences. This generative model, obtained through the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm, is then used to classify a large set of genomic sequences. Results and conclusions We performed classification of over 7000 16S DNA barcode sequences taken from Ribosomal Database Project (RDP) repository, training probabilistic topic models. The proposed method is compared to the RDP tool and Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification algorithm in a extensive set of trials using both complete sequences and short sequence snippets (from 400 bp to 25 bp). Our method reaches very similar results to RDP classifier and SVM for complete sequences. The most interesting results are obtained when short sequence snippets are considered. In these conditions the proposed method outperforms RDP and SVM with ultra short sequences and it exhibits a smooth decrease of performance, at every taxonomic level, when the sequence length is decreased. PMID:25916734

  8. Comparison of main-shock and aftershock fragility curves developed for New Zealand and US buildings

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uma, S.R.; Ryu, H.; Luco, N.; Liel, A.B.; Raghunandan, M.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic risk assessment involves the development of fragility functions to express the relationship between ground motion intensity and damage potential. In evaluating the risk associated with the building inventory in a region, it is essential to capture 'actual' characteristics of the buildings and group them so that 'generic building types' can be generated for further analysis of their damage potential. Variations in building characteristics across regions/countries largely influence the resulting fragility functions, such that building models are unsuitable to be adopted for risk assessment in any other region where a different set of building is present. In this paper, for a given building type (represented in terms of height and structural system), typical New Zealand and US building models are considered to illustrate the differences in structural model parameters and their effects on resulting fragility functions for a set of main-shocks and aftershocks. From this study, the general conclusion is that the methodology and assumptions used to derive basic capacity curve parameters have a considerable influence on fragility curves.

  9. Anisotropic upper crust above the aftershock zone of the 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake from the shear wave splitting analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Ying; Zhang, Haijiang; Zhang, Xin; Pei, Shunping; An, Meijian; Dong, Shuwen

    2015-10-01

    We have conducted a systematic shear wave splitting analysis using 1000 selected aftershocks with M > 2 from the 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake along the Longmenshan fault system in southwest China. Polarization directions of fast shear waves show a bimodal distribution with one dominant direction approximately parallel to the fault strike and the other close to the regional maximum horizontal compressive stress direction. This indicates that in this area mechanisms causing crustal seismic anisotropy are both stress induced and fault zone structure controlled. Delay times between fast and slow shear waves do not show a clear trend of increase for deeper events, suggesting the anisotropic zone is mostly above the aftershocks, which are generally located below 8 km. We further applied a shear wave splitting tomography method to measured delay times to characterize the spatial distribution of seismic anisotropy. The three-dimensional anisotropic percentage model shows strong anisotropy above 8 km but low anisotropy below it. The mainshock slip zone and its aftershocks are associated with very low or negligible anisotropy and high velocity, indicating that the zones with high anisotropy and low velocity above 8 km are mechanically weak and it is difficult for stress to accumulate there. The main and back reverse fault zones are associated with high anisotropic anomalies above ˜8 km, likely caused by shear fabric or microfractures aligned parallel to the fault zone.

  10. Rupture processes of the 2015 Mw 7.9 Gorkha earthquake and its Mw 7.3 aftershock and their implications on the seismic risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Chengli; Zheng, Yong; Wang, Rongjiang; Shan, Bin; Xie, Zujun; Xiong, Xiong; Ge, Can

    2016-07-01

    The rupture processes of the 2015 April 25 Gorkha earthquake and its strongest aftershock occurred on May 12 in Nepal are investigated by joint inversion of seismological and geodetic data. Synthetic test shows that the sedimentary layers in the source region play an important role in the rupture process inversion. Our optimized model of the mainshock shows that the rupture has a unilateral propagation pattern. The dominant mechanism is pure thrust with maximum slip of 5.8 m, the rupture scale extends ~ 60 km along dip and ~ 150 km along strike, and the largest static stress change is ~ 7.6 MPa. The total seismic moment is 7.87 × 1020 N m, equivalent to Mw 7.9. Most seismic moment was released within 80 s and the majority seismic moment was released at the first 40 s. The rupture propagated in main slip asperity with a velocity of ~ 3.0 km/s. The strong aftershock magnitude is about Mw 7.3, and the peak slip is about 5.0 m, close to the peak slip of the mainshock. Moreover, the slips of the mainshock and the aftershocks are in good complementary, suggesting a triggering relationship between them. Considering the strain accumulation, the Gorkha earthquake ruptured only part of the seismic gap alone, thus still poses high earthquake risk, especially in the west side of the mainshock rupture zone.

  11. The 2007 M7.7 Tocopilla northern Chile earthquake sequence: Implications for along-strike and downdip rupture segmentation and megathrust frictional behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schurr, B.; Asch, G.; Rosenau, M.; Wang, R.; Oncken, O.; Barrientos, S.; Salazar, P.; Vilotte, J.-P.

    2012-05-01

    In 2007 a M7.7 earthquake occurred near the town of Tocopilla within the northern Chile seismic gap. Main shock slip, derived from coseismic surface deformation, was confined to the depth range between 30 and 55 km. We relocated ˜1100 events during six months before and one week after the main shock. Aftershock seismicity is first congruent to the main shock slip and then it spreads offshore west and northwest of Mejillones Peninsula (MP). Waveform modeling for 38 aftershocks reveals source mechanisms that are in the majority similar to the main shock. However, a few events appear to occur in the upper plate, some with extensional mechanisms. Juxtaposing the Tocopilla aftershocks with those following the neighboring 1995 Antofagasta earthquake produces a striking symmetry across an EW axis in the center of MP. Events seem to skirt around MP, probably due to a shallower Moho there. We suggest that the seismogenic coupling zone in northern Chile changes its frictional behavior in the downdip direction from unstable to mostly conditionally stable. For both earthquake sequences, aftershocks agglomerate in the conditionally stable region, whereas maximum inter-seismic slip deficit and co-seismic slip occurs in the unstable region. The boundary between the unstable and conditionally stable zones parallels the coastline. We identify a similar segmentation for other earthquakes in Chile and Peru, where the offshore segments break in great M > 8 earthquakes, and the onshore segments in smaller M < 8 earthquakes. Using critical taper analysis, we demonstrate a causal relationship between varying slip behavior on the interface and forearc wedge anatomy that can be attributed to spatial variations in the rate-dependency of friction.

  12. Seismotectonics of the April-May 2015 Nepal earthquakes: An assessment based on the aftershock patterns, surface effects and deformational characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parameswaran, Revathy M.; Natarajan, Thulasiraman; Rajendran, Kusala; Rajendran, C. P.; Mallick, Rishav; Wood, Matthew; Lekhak, Harish C.

    2015-11-01

    Occurrence of the April 25, 2015 (Mw 7.8) earthquake near Gorkha, central Nepal, and another one that followed on May 12 (Mw 7.3), located ∼140 km to its east, provides an exceptional opportunity to understand some new facets of Himalayan earthquakes. Here we attempt to assess the seismotectonics of these earthquakes based on the deformational field generated by these events, along with the spatial and temporal characteristics of their aftershocks. When integrated with some of the post-earthquake field observations, including the localization of damage and surface deformation, it became obvious that although the mainshock slip was mostly limited to the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the rupture did not propagate to the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). Field evidence, supported by the available InSAR imagery of the deformation field, suggests that a component of slip could have emerged through a previously identified out-of-sequence thrust/active thrust in the region that parallels the Main Central Thrust (MCT), known in the literature as a co-linear physiographic transitional zone called PT2. Termination of the first rupture, triggering of the second large earthquake, and distribution of aftershocks are also spatially constrained by the eastern extremity of PT2. Mechanism of the 2015 sequence demonstrates that the out-of-sequence thrusts may accommodate part of the slip, an aspect that needs to be considered in the current understanding of the mechanism of earthquakes originating on the MHT.

  13. The systematic study of the stability of forecasts in the rate- and state-dependent model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Gaetano, D.; McCloskey, J.; Nalbant, S.

    2012-04-01

    Numerous observations have shown a general spatial correlation between positive Coulomb failure stress changes due to an earthquake and the locations of aftershocks. However this correlation does not give any indication of the rate from which we can infer the magnitude using the Gutenberg-Richter law. Dieterich's rate- and state-dependent model can be used to obtain a forecast of the observed aftershock rate for the space and time evolution of seismicity caused by stress changes applied to an infinite population of nucleating patches. The seismicity rate changes on this model depend on eight parameters: the stressing rate, the amplitude of the stress perturbation, the physical constitutive properties of faults, the spatial parameters (location and radii of the cells), the start and duration of each of the temporal windows as well as the background seismicity rate. The background seismicity is obtained from the epidemic type aftershock sequence model. We use the 1992 Landers earthquake as a case study, using the Southern California Earthquake Data Centre (SCEDC) catalogue, to examine if Dieterich's rate- and state-dependent model can forecast the aftershock seismicity rate. A systematic study is performed on a range of values on all the parameters to test the forecasting ability of this model. The results obtained suggest variable success in forecasting, when varying the values for the parameters, with the spatial and temporal parameters being the most sensitive. Dieterich's rate- and state-dependent model is compared with a well studied null hypothesis, the Omori-Utsu law. This law describes the aftershock rate as a power law in time following the main shock and depends on only three parameters: the aftershock productivity, the elapsed time since the main shock and the constant time shift, all of which can be estimated in the early part of the aftershock sequence and then extrapolated to give a long term rate forecast. All parameters are estimated using maximum

  14. Models of hydrocarbon-bearing sequences of West Siberia

    SciTech Connect

    Mkrtohyan, O.M.; Gogonenkov, G.N.; Pavlov, N.E. )

    1991-03-01

    The West Siberian province located within a young plate (platform) is one of the largest in the world in size, reserves, number of unique fields, and hydrocarbon production. The southern, central, and western areas of the province are dominantly oil-bearing, the northern portion gas-bearing. All commercial reserves are within the Devonian-Cenomanian stratigraphic interval. Small accumulations in fractured-vuggy Devon-Carboniferous rocks are located in the zone of unconformity between this sequence and the Jurassic. The potential of the pre-plate middle Paleozoic, platform upper Paleozoic, and Triassic sequences recognized by seismic data in the northern, deepest, part of the plate is not known yet. Most hydrocarbon pools are located in the Jurassic-Cretaceous hydrocarbon-bearing sequences (HBS) within the plate cover. Structural-depositional oil accumulations with very changeable flow rates, a large stratigraphic-depositional accumulation in high permeability basal (quartz) reservoirs, and an oil-condensate and a multiple-pool structural gas field are discovered in the Middle Jurassic composed of potential continental coal-bearing and marine deposits. In most HBS, there is still a prospect of discovering new hydrocarbon pools including pools in more complex traps.

  15. Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parsons, Tom

    2002-09-01

    Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 from the Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occurred near (defined as having shear stress change ∣Δτ∣ ≥ 0.01 MPa) the Ms ≥ 7.0 shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ˜39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, these triggered earthquakes obey an Omori law rate decay that lasts between ˜7-11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main shock centroid. Omori's law is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. If large triggered earthquakes habitually obey Omori's law, then their hazard can be more readily assessed. The characteristic rate change with time and spatial distribution can be used to rapidly assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following events of Ms ≥ 7.0. I show an example application to the M = 7.7 13 January 2001 El Salvador earthquake where use of global statistics appears to provide a better rapid hazard estimate than Coulomb stress change calculations.

  16. Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, Tom

    2002-01-01

    Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the 1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 from the Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occurred near (defined as having shear stress change ∣Δτ∣ ≥ 0.01 MPa) the Ms ≥ 7.0 shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ∼39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, these triggered earthquakes obey an Omori law rate decay that lasts between ∼7–11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main shock centroid. Omori's law is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. If large triggered earthquakes habitually obey Omori's law, then their hazard can be more readily assessed. The characteristic rate change with time and spatial distribution can be used to rapidly assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following events of Ms ≥ 7.0. I show an example application to the M = 7.7 13 January 2001 El Salvador earthquake where use of global statistics appears to provide a better rapid hazard estimate than Coulomb stress change calculations.

  17. Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.

    2002-01-01

    Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the 1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with Ms ??? 7.0 from the Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occured near (defined as having shear stress change ???????? ??? 0.01 MPa) the Ms ??? 7.0 shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ???39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, these triggered earthquakes obey an Omori law rate decay that lasts between ???7-11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main shock centroid. Omori's law is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. If large triggered earthquakes habitually obey Omori's law, then their hazard can be more readily assessed. The characteristics rate change with time and spatial distribution can be used to rapidly assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following events of Ms ??? 7.0. I show an example application to the M = 7.7 13 January 2001 El Salvador earthquake where use of global statistics appears to provide a better rapid hazard estimate than Coulomb stress change calculations.

  18. Clustered and transient earthquake sequences in mid-continents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, M.; Stein, S. A.; Wang, H.; Luo, G.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquakes result from sudden release of strain energy on faults. On plate boundary faults, strain energy is constantly accumulating from steady and relatively rapid relative plate motion, so large earthquakes continue to occur so long as motion continues on the boundary. In contrast, such steady accumulation of stain energy does not occur on faults in mid-continents, because the far-field tectonic loading is not steadily distributed between faults, and because stress perturbations from complex fault interactions and other stress triggers can be significant relative to the slow tectonic stressing. Consequently, mid-continental earthquakes are often temporally clustered and transient, and spatially migrating. This behavior is well illustrated by large earthquakes in North China in the past two millennia, during which no single large earthquakes repeated on the same fault segments, but moment release between large fault systems was complementary. Slow tectonic loading in mid-continents also causes long aftershock sequences. We show that the recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region of North China are aftershocks of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake (M 7.5), rather than indicators of a new phase of seismic activity in North China, as many fear. Understanding the transient behavior of mid-continental earthquakes has important implications for assessing earthquake hazards. The sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in central US, which includes a cluster of M~7 events in 1811-1812 and perhaps a few similar ones in the past millennium, is likely a transient process, releasing previously accumulated elastic strain on recently activated faults. If so, this earthquake sequence will eventually end. Using simple analysis and numerical modeling, we show that the large NMSZ earthquakes may be ending now or in the near future.

  19. Analysis of strong ground motions and site effects at Kantipath, Kathmandu, from 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake and its aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhakal, Yadab P.; Kubo, Hisahiko; Suzuki, Wataru; Kunugi, Takashi; Aoi, Shin; Fujiwara, Hiroyuki

    2016-04-01

    Strong ground motions from the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake and its eight aftershocks recorded by a strong-motion seismograph at Kantipath (KATNP), Kathmandu, were analyzed to assess the ground-motion characteristics and site effects at this location. Remarkably large elastic pseudo-velocity responses exceeding 300 cm/s at 5 % critical damping were calculated for the horizontal components of the mainshock recordings at peak periods of 4-5 s. Conversely, the short-period ground motions of the mainshock were relatively weak despite the proximity of the site to the source fault. The horizontal components of all large-magnitude (Mw ≥ 6.3) aftershock recordings showed peak pseudo-velocity responses at periods of 3-4 s. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) describing the Nepal Himalaya region have not yet been developed. A comparison of the observational data with GMPEs for Japan showed that with the exception of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the mainshock, the observed PGAs and peak ground velocities at the KATNP site are generally well described by the GMPEs for crustal and plate interface events. A comparison of the horizontal-to-vertical ( H/ V) spectral ratios for the S-waves of the mainshock and aftershock recordings suggested that the KATNP site experienced a considerable nonlinear site response, which resulted in the reduced amplitudes of short-period ground motions. The GMPEs were found to underestimate the response values at the peak periods (approximately 4-5 s) of the large-magnitude events. The deep subsurface velocity model of the Kathmandu basin has not been well investigated. Therefore, a one-dimensional velocity model was constructed for the deep sediments beneath the recording station based on an analysis of the H/ V spectral ratios for S-wave coda from aftershock recordings, and it was revealed that the basin sediments strongly amplified the long-period components of the ground motions of the mainshock and large

  20. Stochastic model of homogeneous coding and latent periodicity in DNA sequences.

    PubMed

    Chaley, Maria; Kutyrkin, Vladimir

    2016-02-01

    The concept of latent triplet periodicity in coding DNA sequences which has been earlier extensively discussed is confirmed in the result of analysis of a number of eukaryotic genomes, where latent periodicity of a new type, called profile periodicity, is recognized in the CDSs. Original model of Stochastic Homogeneous Organization of Coding (SHOC-model) in textual string is proposed. This model explains the existence of latent profile periodicity and regularity in DNA sequences. PMID:26656186

  1. Next-Generation Phylogeography: A Targeted Approach for Multilocus Sequencing of Non-Model Organisms

    PubMed Central

    Puritz, Jonathan B.; Addison, Jason A.; Toonen, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    The field of phylogeography has long since realized the need and utility of incorporating nuclear DNA (nDNA) sequences into analyses. However, the use of nDNA sequence data, at the population level, has been hindered by technical laboratory difficulty, sequencing costs, and problematic analytical methods dealing with genotypic sequence data, especially in non-model organisms. Here, we present a method utilizing the 454 GS-FLX Titanium pyrosequencing platform with the capacity to simultaneously sequence two species of sea star (Meridiastra calcar and Parvulastra exigua) at five different nDNA loci across 16 different populations of 20 individuals each per species. We compare results from 3 populations with traditional Sanger sequencing based methods, and demonstrate that this next-generation sequencing platform is more time and cost effective and more sensitive to rare variants than Sanger based sequencing. A crucial advantage is that the high coverage of clonally amplified sequences simplifies haplotype determination, even in highly polymorphic species. This targeted next-generation approach can greatly increase the use of nDNA sequence loci in phylogeographic and population genetic studies by mitigating many of the time, cost, and analytical issues associated with highly polymorphic, diploid sequence markers. PMID:22470543

  2. The southeastern Illinois earthquake of 10 June 1987: the later aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langer, C.J.; Bollinger, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    The 10 June 1987 southeastern Illinois earthquake (mbLg=5.2) was located about 200 km east of St Louis, Missouri, caused minor damage in the epicentral area, had a contiguous felt area of about 433 000 km2, and had a total felt area over 1 million km2. Within 47 hours after the main shock, a 15-station aftershock monitoring network (later expanded to 21 instruments) was installed that recorded more than 100 aftershocks in the folllowing 4-day period. Results from the 56 aftershocks that were well located indicate a compact, cylindrically shaped aftershock volume about 1.7 km long, 0.8 km wide, and with a vertical distribution between about 9 and 12 km in depth. Composite focal mechanism solutions of the aftershocks suggest that the predominant mode of faulting is reverse slip, but some strike-slip type motion occurred similar to the mechanism for the main shock as determined from teleseismic data. The maximum principal compressive stress (P axes) is oriented E-ESE and is subhorizontal in plunge. -from Authors

  3. Thrust-faulting earthquake induced many normal-faulting aftershocks, in northeastern Chiba Prefecture, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakai, S.; Kato, A.; Hirata, N.; Nakagawa, S.; Kasahara, K.; Sato, H.; Kurashimo, E.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Obara, K.; Aketagawa, T.; Kimura, H.

    2010-12-01

    A thrust faulting type earthquake of a local body wave magnitude (MJMA) of 4.9 occurred near the upper interface of the subducting Philippine Sea Plate (PHS) in northeastern Chiba Prefecture on July 22, 2010. We have been developing a dense seismic net work call the MeSO-net in the Tokyo Metropolitan area. So far, 249 stations are available for the study of a large felt earthquakes and small event as low as M=1.5. We also deployed a temporary seismic array 24 of which were used for the analysis of the aftershocks. We locate the July 22 earthquake(MJMA=4.9) and its 19 aftershocks (M>1.5) by the double difference location algorithm. We also determine focal mechanisms for the main- and after-shocks. The locations of the main shock and three aftershocks are closely distributed near the upper interface of PHS, which is consistent with the idea that the event occurred on the plate interface. However, most aftershocks whose focal mechanism is normal-fault type with a T-axis directing NE-SW are located off the upper interface indicating that intra-slab events are also generated by the event. Acknowledgement: The present study is supported by Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan.

  4. Decay of aftershock density with distance does not indicate triggering by dynamic stress

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Richards-Dinger, K.; Stein, R.S.; Toda, S.

    2010-01-01

    Resolving whether static or dynamic stress triggers most aftershocks and subsequent mainshocks is essential to understand earthquake interaction and to forecast seismic hazard. Felzer and Brodsky examined the distance distribution of earthquakes occurring in the first five minutes after 2 ≤ M  M  M ≥ 2 aftershocks showed a uniform power-law decay with slope −1.35 out to 50 km from the mainshocks. From this they argued that the distance decay could be explained only by dynamic triggering. Here we propose an alternative explanation for the decay, and subject their hypothesis to a series of tests, none of which it passes. At distances more than 300 m from the 2 ≤  M< 3 mainshocks, the seismicity decay 5 min before the mainshocks is indistinguishable from the decay five minutes afterwards, indicating that the mainshocks have no effect at distances outside their static triggering range. Omori temporal decay, the fundamental signature of aftershocks, is absent at distances exceeding 10 km from the mainshocks. Finally, the distance decay is found among aftershocks that occur before the arrival of the seismic wave front from the mainshock, which violates causality. We argue that Felzer and Brodsky implicitly assume that the first of two independent aftershocks along a fault rupture triggers the second, and that the first of two shocks in a creep- or intrusion-driven swarm triggers the second, when this need not be the case.

  5. A convolutional code-based sequence analysis model and its application.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xiao; Geng, Xiaoli

    2013-04-16

    A new approach for encoding DNA sequences as input for DNA sequence analysis is proposed using the error correction coding theory of communication engineering. The encoder was designed as a convolutional code model whose generator matrix is designed based on the degeneracy of codons, with a codon treated in the model as an informational unit. The utility of the proposed model was demonstrated through the analysis of twelve prokaryote and nine eukaryote DNA sequences having different GC contents. Distinct differences in code distances were observed near the initiation and termination sites in the open reading frame, which provided a well-regulated characterization of the DNA sequences. Clearly distinguished period-3 features appeared in the coding regions, and the characteristic average code distances of the analyzed sequences were approximately proportional to their GC contents, particularly in the selected prokaryotic organisms, presenting the potential utility as an added taxonomic characteristic for use in studying the relationships of living organisms.

  6. Statistical discrimination of induced and tectonic earthquake sequences in Central and Eastern US based on waveform detected catalogs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, X.; Daniels, C.; Smith, E.; Peng, Z.; Chen, X.; Wagner, L. S.; Fischer, K. M.; Hawman, R. B.

    2015-12-01

    Since 2001, the number of M>3 earthquakes increased significantly in Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), likely due to waste-water injection, also known as "induced earthquakes" [Ellsworth, 2013]. Because induced earthquakes are driven by short-term external forcing and hence may behave like earthquake swarms, which are not well characterized by branching point-process models, such as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model [Ogata, 1988]. In this study we focus on the 02/15/2014 M4.1 South Carolina and the 06/16/2014 M4.3 Oklahoma earthquakes, which likely represent intraplate tectonic and induced events, respectively. For the South Carolina event, only one M3.0 aftershock is identified by the ANSS catalog, which may be caused by a lack of low-magnitude events in this catalog. We apply a recently developed matched filter technique to detect earthquakes from 02/08/2014 to 02/22/2014 around the epicentral region. 15 seismic stations (both permanent and temporary USArray networks) within 100 km of the mainshock are used for detection. The mainshock and aftershock are used as templates for the initial detection. Newly detected events are employed as new templates, and the same detection procedure repeats until no new event can be added. Overall we have identified more than 10 events, including one foreshock occurred ~11 min before the M4.1 mainshock. However, the numbers of aftershocks are still much less than predicted with the modified Bath's law. For the Oklahoma event, we use 1270 events from the ANSS catalog and 182 events from a relocated catalog as templates to scan through continuous recordings 3 days before to 7 days after the mainshock. 12 seismic stations within the vicinity of the mainshock are included in the study. After obtaining more complete catalogs for both sequences, we plan to compare the statistical parameters (e.g., b, a, K, and p values) between the two sequences, as well as their spatial-temporal migration pattern, which may

  7. Chapter D. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Aftershocks and Postseismic Effects

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reasenberg, Paul A.

    1997-01-01

    While the damaging effects of the earthquake represent a significant social setback and economic loss, the geophysical effects have produced a wealth of data that have provided important insights into the structure and mechanics of the San Andreas Fault system. Generally, the period after a large earthquake is vitally important to monitor. During this part of the seismic cycle, the primary fault and the surrounding faults, rock bodies, and crustal fluids rapidly readjust in response to the earthquake's sudden movement. Geophysical measurements made at this time can provide unique information about fundamental properties of the fault zone, including its state of stress and the geometry and frictional/rheological properties of the faults within it. Because postseismic readjustments are rapid compared with corresponding changes occurring in the preseismic period, the amount and rate of information that is available during the postseismic period is relatively high. From a geophysical viewpoint, the occurrence of the Loma Prieta earthquake in a section of the San Andreas fault zone that is surrounded by multiple and extensive geophysical monitoring networks has produced nothing less than a scientific bonanza. The reports assembled in this chapter collectively examine available geophysical observations made before and after the earthquake and model the earthquake's principal postseismic effects. The chapter covers four broad categories of postseismic effect: (1) aftershocks; (2) postseismic fault movements; (3) postseismic surface deformation; and (4) changes in electrical conductivity and crustal fluids.

  8. The use of synthetic input sequences in time series modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Oliveira, Dair José; Letellier, Christophe; Gomes, Murilo E. D.; Aguirre, Luis A.

    2008-08-01

    In many situations time series models obtained from noise-like data settle to trivial solutions under iteration. This Letter proposes a way of producing a synthetic (dummy) input, that is included to prevent the model from settling down to a trivial solution, while maintaining features of the original signal. Simulated benchmark models and a real time series of RR intervals from an ECG are used to illustrate the procedure.

  9. Modeling sustainable groundwater management: packaging and sequencing of policy interventions.

    PubMed

    Esteban, Encarna; Dinar, Ariel

    2013-04-15

    Of the many studies estimating effectiveness of policy reforms most have been considering various types of policy reforms in isolation from each other. Such pattern has also been the case in water resource regulations. In the case of groundwater almost all policy interventions considered in the literature have been implemented individually, without taking into account the possible interactions and impacts among them. In this paper, we focus on two policy instruments: water quota and uniform water tax. The paper demonstrates how packaging and sequencing sets of policy interventions, with possible triggers to initiate their time of implementation, may be more effective in achieving a sustainable groundwater management than single policies when environmental externalities exist. The policy instruments are applied to the Western la Mancha aquifer in Southeast Spain, a major aquifer that is managed by a command and control approach. PMID:23467104

  10. Modeling sustainable groundwater management: packaging and sequencing of policy interventions.

    PubMed

    Esteban, Encarna; Dinar, Ariel

    2013-04-15

    Of the many studies estimating effectiveness of policy reforms most have been considering various types of policy reforms in isolation from each other. Such pattern has also been the case in water resource regulations. In the case of groundwater almost all policy interventions considered in the literature have been implemented individually, without taking into account the possible interactions and impacts among them. In this paper, we focus on two policy instruments: water quota and uniform water tax. The paper demonstrates how packaging and sequencing sets of policy interventions, with possible triggers to initiate their time of implementation, may be more effective in achieving a sustainable groundwater management than single policies when environmental externalities exist. The policy instruments are applied to the Western la Mancha aquifer in Southeast Spain, a major aquifer that is managed by a command and control approach.

  11. Sequence analysis and homology modeling of laccase from Pycnoporus cinnabarinus.

    PubMed

    Meshram, Rohan J; Gavhane, Aj; Gaikar, Rb; Bansode, Ts; Maskar, Au; Gupta, Ak; Sohni, Sk; Patidar, Ma; Pandey, Tr; Jangle, Sn

    2010-09-20

    Industrial effluents of textile, paper, and leather industries contain various toxic dyes as one of the waste material. It imparts major impact on human health as well as environment. The white rot fungus Pycnoporus cinnabarinus Laccase is generally used to degrade these toxic dyes. In order to decipher the mechanism of process by which Laccase degrade dyes, it is essential to know its 3D structure. Homology modeling was performed in presented work, by satisfying Spatial restrains using Modeller Program, which is considered as standard in this field, to generate 3D structure of Laccase in unison, SWISSMODEL web server was also utilized to generate and verify the alternative models. We observed that models created using Modeller stands better on structure evaluation tests. This study can further be used in molecular docking techniques, to understand the interaction of enzyme with its mediators like 2, 2-azinobis (3-ethylbenzthiazoline-6-sulfonate) (ABTS) and Vanillin that are known to enhance the Laccase activity.

  12. Spin models inferred from patient-derived viral sequence data faithfully describe HIV fitness landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shekhar, Karthik; Ruberman, Claire F.; Ferguson, Andrew L.; Barton, John P.; Kardar, Mehran; Chakraborty, Arup K.

    2013-12-01

    Mutational escape from vaccine-induced immune responses has thwarted the development of a successful vaccine against AIDS, whose causative agent is HIV, a highly mutable virus. Knowing the virus' fitness as a function of its proteomic sequence can enable rational design of potent vaccines, as this information can focus vaccine-induced immune responses to target mutational vulnerabilities of the virus. Spin models have been proposed as a means to infer intrinsic fitness landscapes of HIV proteins from patient-derived viral protein sequences. These sequences are the product of nonequilibrium viral evolution driven by patient-specific immune responses and are subject to phylogenetic constraints. How can such sequence data allow inference of intrinsic fitness landscapes? We combined computer simulations and variational theory á la Feynman to show that, in most circumstances, spin models inferred from patient-derived viral sequences reflect the correct rank order of the fitness of mutant viral strains. Our findings are relevant for diverse viruses.

  13. Strong aftershocks in the northern segment of the Wenchuan earthquake rupture zone and their seismotectonic implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Yong; Ni, Sidao; Xie, Zujun; Lv, Jian; Ma, Hongsheng; Sommerville, Paul

    2010-11-01

    More than 28, 000 aftershocks have occurred since the 05/12/2008 Wenchuan earthquake, with dozens of them stronger than M 5. Since July, 2008, all the M > 5 earthquakes have occurred only in the northern segment of the rupture zone, suggesting obvious seismicity segmentation. We applied the double difference method to relocate all of the M > 3 aftershocks. After relocation, the aftershocks show a compact zone of seismicity, with a length of about 300 km and average width of 30 km, supporting that the hypothesis that the Beichuan-Yingxiu and Chaping-Linjiaan faults are the faults that ruptured in the earthquake. With the Cut and Paste (CAP) waveform inversion algorithm, we determined the source mechanism and focal depth of all the > M 5 aftershocks in the northern segments. The number of thrust events is close to the number of strike-slip events, but almost all of the events with thrust mechanism are distributed over the northern segment, while the aftershocks with strike-slip mechanism only occurred at the north-easternmost end, contrasting with field observations of a substantial strike-slip component of surface rupture over the northern segment. The events with strike-slip mechanism occurred at depths up to 18 km, consistent with the lack of surface rupture in the north-easternmost section. However, since early August, very shallow events (2 km) with thrust mechanism have occurred, probably releasing the strain energy of the unruptured fault in the north-easternmost section. It seems that the seismic hazard potential of the northern segment is still quite high, and more studies are needed to resolve some of the discrepancy suggested by aftershock patterns and other observations.

  14. Modeling financial markets by the multiplicative sequence of trades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gontis, V.; Kaulakys, B.

    2004-12-01

    We introduce the stochastic multiplicative point process modeling trading activity of financial markets. Such a model system exhibits power-law spectral density S(f)∝1/fβ, scaled as power of frequency for various values of β between 0.5 and 2. Furthermore, we analyze the relation between the power-law autocorrelations and the origin of the power-law probability distribution of the trading activity. The model reproduces the spectral properties of trading activity and explains the mechanism of power-law distribution in real markets.

  15. An exploration of reported cognitions during an earthquake and its aftershocks: differences across affected communities and associations with psychological distress.

    PubMed

    Kannis-Dymand, Lee; Dorahy, Martin J; Crake, Rosemary; Gibbon, Peter; Luckey, Rhys

    2015-04-01

    Cognitive themes in two communities differentially affected by the September 2010 Christchurch earthquake and aftershocks were investigated. Participants (N = 124) completed questions about their thoughts during the earthquake and aftershocks as well as measures of acute stress, anxiety, and depression. Cognitions were qualitatively analyzed into themes for the earthquake and aftershocks. Themes were examined for differences across the two suburbs and associations with psychological distress. Nine cognitive themes were identified within three superordinate domains. The cognitive theme of worry and concern was the most frequently occurring for the earthquake and aftershocks across the whole sample and for the more affected suburb. Current threat was the most frequent theme for the earthquake in the less affected suburb, whereas worry and concern was the most evident in this group for aftershocks. The superordinate theme of threat was significantly related to higher acute stress disorder scores in the more affected suburb for earthquake-reported cognitions.

  16. Scheduling and programming of rapid finger sequences: tests and elaborations of the hierarchical editor model.

    PubMed

    Rosenbaum, D A; Hindorff, V; Munro, E M

    1987-05-01

    Is a response sequence executed only after the sequence has been fully programmed, as discrete processing models predict, or does execution begin before programming has been completed, as continuous processing models predict? To address this issue, we tested a discrete processing model of human motor performance, the hierarchical editor model of Rosenbaum, Inhoff, and Gordon (1984). This model was developed to account for data from experiments in which people perform one of two possible finger sequences, depending on the identity of a choice signal. The model assumes a hierarchically organized motor program that is first "edited" to resolve any uncertainties and is then "executed" to produce the desired responses. Three experiments reported here show that, contrary to the model's predictions and some well-known motor programming results (Sternberg, Monsell, Knoll, & Wright, 1978), the reaction time to begin a response sequence actually decreases with the length of the sequence under some choice conditions. We account for these results with a model that allows execution to begin while editing is still in progress. A key assumption in the model is that subjects schedule execution so that means and variances of interresponse times are minimized.

  17. Exploiting mid-range DNA patterns for sequence classification: binary abstraction Markov models.

    PubMed

    Shepard, Samuel S; McSweeny, Andrew; Serpen, Gursel; Fedorov, Alexei

    2012-06-01

    Messenger RNA sequences possess specific nucleotide patterns distinguishing them from non-coding genomic sequences. In this study, we explore the utilization of modified Markov models to analyze sequences up to 44 bp, far beyond the 8-bp limit of conventional Markov models, for exon/intron discrimination. In order to analyze nucleotide sequences of this length, their information content is first reduced by conversion into shorter binary patterns via the application of numerous abstraction schemes. After the conversion of genomic sequences to binary strings, homogenous Markov models trained on the binary sequences are used to discriminate between exons and introns. We term this approach the Binary Abstraction Markov Model (BAMM). High-quality abstraction schemes for exon/intron discrimination are selected using optimization algorithms on supercomputers. The best MM classifiers are then combined using support vector machines into a single classifier. With this approach, over 95% classification accuracy is achieved without taking reading frame into account. With further development, the BAMM approach can be applied to sequences lacking the genetic code such as ncRNAs and 5'-untranslated regions. PMID:22344692

  18. DINAMO: a coupled sequence alignment editor/molecular graphics tool for interactive homology modeling of proteins.

    PubMed

    Hansen, M; Bentz, J; Baucom, A; Gregoret, L

    1998-01-01

    Gaining functional information about a novel protein is a universal problem in biomedical research. With the explosive growth of the protein sequence and structural databases, it is becoming increasingly common for researchers to attempt to build a three-dimensional model of their protein of interest in order to gain information about its structure and interactions with other molecules. The two most reliable methods for predicting the structure of a protein are homology modeling, in which the novel sequence is modeled on the known three-dimensional structure of a related protein, and fold recognition (threading), where the sequence is scored against a library of fold models, and the highest scoring model is selected. The sequence alignment to a known structure can be ambiguous, and human intervention is often required to optimize the model. We describe an interactive model building and assessment tool in which a sequence alignment editor is dynamically coupled to a molecular graphics display. By means of a set of assessment tools, the user may optimize his or her alignment to satisfy the known heuristics of protein structure. Adjustments to the sequence alignment made by the user are reflected in the displayed model by color and other visual cues. For instance, residues are colored by hydrophobicity in both the three-dimensional model and in the sequence alignment. This aids the user in identifying undesirable buried polar residues. Several different evaluation metrics may be selected including residue conservation, residue properties, and visualization of predicted secondary structure. These characteristics may be mapped to the model both singly and in combination. DINAMO is a Java-based tool that may be run either over the web or installed locally. Its modular architecture also allows Java-literate users to add plug-ins of their own design.

  19. Seismic source study of the Racha-Dzhava (Georgia) earthquake from aftershocks and broad-band teleseismic body-wave records: An example of active nappe tectonics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fuenzalida, H.; Rivera, L.; Haessler, H.; Legrand, D.; Philip, H.; Dorbath, L.; McCormack, D.; Arefiev, S.; Langer, C.; Cisternas, A.

    1997-01-01

    The Racha-Dzhava earthquake (Ms = 7.0) that occurred on 1991 April 29 at 09:12:48.1 GMT in the southern border of the Great Caucasus is the biggest event ever recorded in the region, stronger than the Spitak earthquake (Ms = 6.9) of 1988. A field expedition to the epicentral area was organised and a temporary seismic network of 37 stations was deployed to record the aftershock activity. A very precise image of the aftershock distribution is obtained, showing an elongated cloud oriented N105??, with one branch trending N310?? in the western part. The southernmost part extends over 80 km, with the depth ranging from 0 to 15 km, and dips north. The northern branch, which is about 30 km long, shows activity that ranges in depth from 5 to 15 km. The complex thrust dips northwards. A stress-tensor inversion from P-wave first-motion polarities shows a state of triaxial compression, with the major principal axis oriented roughly N-S, the minor principal axis being vertical. Body-waveform inversion of teleseismic seismograms was performed for the main shock, which can be divided into four subevents with a total rupture-time duration of 22 s. The most important part of the seismic moment was released by a gentle northerly dipping thrust. The model is consistent with the compressive tectonics of the region and is in agreement with the aftershock distribution and the stress tensor deduced from the aftershocks. The focal mechanisms of the three largest aftershocks were also inverted from body-wave records. The April 29th (Ms = 6.1) and May 5th (Ms = 5.4) aftershocks have thrust mechanisms on roughly E-W-oriented planes, similar to the main shock. Surprisingly, the June 15th (Ms = 6.2) aftershock shows a thrust fault striking N-S. This mechanism is explained by the structural control of the rupture along the east-dipping geometry of the Dzirula Massif close to the Borzhomi-Kazbeg strike-slip fault. In fact, the orientation and shape of the stress tensor produce a thrust on a N

  20. Sequence analysis and homology modeling of laccase from Pycnoporus cinnabarinus

    PubMed Central

    Meshram, Rohan J; Gavhane, AJ; Gaikar, RB; Bansode, TS; Maskar, AU; Gupta, AK; Sohni, SK; Patidar, MA; Pandey, TR; Jangle, SN

    2010-01-01

    Industrial effluents of textile, paper, and leather industries contain various toxic dyes as one of the waste material. It imparts major impact on human health as well as environment. The white rot fungus Pycnoporus cinnabarinus Laccase is generally used to degrade these toxic dyes. In order to decipher the mechanism of process by which Laccase degrade dyes, it is essential to know its 3D structure. Homology modeling was performed in presented work, by satisfying Spatial restrains using Modeller Program, which is considered as standard in this field, to generate 3D structure of Laccase in unison, SWISSMODEL web server was also utilized to generate and verify the alternative models. We observed that models created using Modeller stands better on structure evaluation tests. This study can further be used in molecular docking techniques, to understand the interaction of enzyme with its mediators like 2, 2‐azinobis (3‐ethylbenzthiazoline‐6‐sulfonate) (ABTS) and Vanillin that are known to enhance the Laccase activity. PMID:21364777

  1. Sequence-based model of gap gene regulatory network

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The detailed analysis of transcriptional regulation is crucially important for understanding biological processes. The gap gene network in Drosophila attracts large interest among researches studying mechanisms of transcriptional regulation. It implements the most upstream regulatory layer of the segmentation gene network. The knowledge of molecular mechanisms involved in gap gene regulation is far less complete than that of genetics of the system. Mathematical modeling goes beyond insights gained by genetics and molecular approaches. It allows us to reconstruct wild-type gene expression patterns in silico, infer underlying regulatory mechanism and prove its sufficiency. Results We developed a new model that provides a dynamical description of gap gene regulatory systems, using detailed DNA-based information, as well as spatial transcription factor concentration data at varying time points. We showed that this model correctly reproduces gap gene expression patterns in wild type embryos and is able to predict gap expression patterns in Kr mutants and four reporter constructs. We used four-fold cross validation test and fitting to random dataset to validate the model and proof its sufficiency in data description. The identifiability analysis showed that most model parameters are well identifiable. We reconstructed the gap gene network topology and studied the impact of individual transcription factor binding sites on the model output. We measured this impact by calculating the site regulatory weight as a normalized difference between the residual sum of squares error for the set of all annotated sites and for the set with the site of interest excluded. Conclusions The reconstructed topology of the gap gene network is in agreement with previous modeling results and data from literature. We showed that 1) the regulatory weights of transcription factor binding sites show very weak correlation with their PWM score; 2) sites with low regulatory weight are

  2. On species sampling sequences induced by residual allocation models

    PubMed Central

    Rodríguez, Abel; Quintana, Fernando A.

    2014-01-01

    We discuss fully Bayesian inference in a class of species sampling models that are induced by residual allocation (sometimes called stick-breaking) priors on almost surely discrete random measures. This class provides a generalization of the well-known Ewens sampling formula that allows for additional flexibility while retaining computational tractability. In particular, the procedure is used to derive the exchangeable predictive probability functions associated with the generalized Dirichlet process of Hjort (2000) and the probit stick-breaking prior of Chung and Dunson (2009) and Rodriguez and Dunson (2011). The procedure is illustrated with applications to genetics and nonparametric mixture modeling. PMID:25477705

  3. On species sampling sequences induced by residual allocation models.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez, Abel; Quintana, Fernando A

    2015-02-01

    We discuss fully Bayesian inference in a class of species sampling models that are induced by residual allocation (sometimes called stick-breaking) priors on almost surely discrete random measures. This class provides a generalization of the well-known Ewens sampling formula that allows for additional flexibility while retaining computational tractability. In particular, the procedure is used to derive the exchangeable predictive probability functions associated with the generalized Dirichlet process of Hjort (2000) and the probit stick-breaking prior of Chung and Dunson (2009) and Rodriguez and Dunson (2011). The procedure is illustrated with applications to genetics and nonparametric mixture modeling. PMID:25477705

  4. On the c-values of the off-fault aftershocks triggered by the 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugaya, K.; Hiramatsu, Y.; Furumoto, M.; Katao, H.; Ogata, Y.

    2010-12-01

    The Omori-Utsu law is applicable not only to aftershocks in a source region but also to off-fault aftershocks triggered by the mainshock.In this study, we estimate the c-values using the maximum-likelihood method (Ogata, 1983) from the seismicity activation in the Tamba region induced by the coseismic static stress change due to the 1995 Kobe earthquake of M7.3, Japan. We use earthquakes (M≥1.8) shallower than 20 km from the JMA catalog and remove remarked clusters of the aftershock due to moderate earthquakes with the method of Reasenberg (1985). Our analyzed period is from the occurrence of the earthquake (17 January 1995) to December 1995. The obtained c-values in the divided subregions, near and far to the rupture zone, are 58.1 ± 26.1 days and 164.7 ± 98.0 days, respectively. This is consistent with the rate- and state-dependent friction law of Dieterich (1994) in that the c-values of induced off-fault seismicity are larger than those of the source region depending on the static stress change. We estimate Aσ and the stressing rate after the earthquake in the whole region with the average ΔCFS of 30 kPa (Hashimoto, 1995, 1997) using a grid search following Toda et al. (2005). The friction law’s parameters in the whole region are estimated to be 13.8 ~ 16.2 kPa/yr and 15.0 ~ 16.6 kPa at the stressing rate and Aσ, respectively. Furthermore, we estimate ΔCFSs in the two subregions using the stressing rate of 15.5 kPa/yr and Aσ of 15.5 kPa obtained above. The obtained ΔCFSs in the divided subregions, near and far to the rupture zone, are 39.9 ~ 43.4 kPa and 17.3 ~ 19.9 kPa, respectively. These are coincident with the distribution of ΔCFS drawn by using a geodetic fault model (Hashimoto et al., 1996).

  5. Modeling Transformations of Neurodevelopmental Sequences across Mammalian Species

    PubMed Central

    Workman, Alan D.; Charvet, Christine J.; Clancy, Barbara; Darlington, Richard B.

    2013-01-01

    A general model of neural development is derived to fit 18 mammalian species, including humans, macaques, several rodent species, and six metatherian (marsupial) mammals. The goal of this work is to describe heterochronic changes in brain evolution within its basic developmental allometry, and provide an empirical basis to recognize equivalent maturational states across animals. The empirical data generating the model comprises 271 developmental events, including measures of initial neurogenesis, axon extension, establishment, and refinement of connectivity, as well as later events such as myelin formation, growth of brain volume, and early behavioral milestones, to the third year of human postnatal life. The progress of neural events across species is sufficiently predictable that a single model can be used to predict the timing of all events in all species, with a correlation of modeled values to empirical data of 0.9929. Each species' rate of progress through the event scale, described by a regression equation predicting duration of development in days, is highly correlated with adult brain size. Neural heterochrony can be seen in selective delay of retinogenesis in the cat, associated with greater numbers of rods in its retina, and delay of corticogenesis in all species but rodents and the rabbit, associated with relatively larger cortices in species with delay. Unexpectedly, precocial mammals (those unusually mature at birth) delay the onset of first neurogenesis but then progress rapidly through remaining developmental events. PMID:23616543

  6. Modeling transformations of neurodevelopmental sequences across mammalian species.

    PubMed

    Workman, Alan D; Charvet, Christine J; Clancy, Barbara; Darlington, Richard B; Finlay, Barbara L

    2013-04-24

    A general model of neural development is derived to fit 18 mammalian species, including humans, macaques, several rodent species, and six metatherian (marsupial) mammals. The goal of this work is to describe heterochronic changes in brain evolution within its basic developmental allometry, and provide an empirical basis to recognize equivalent maturational states across animals. The empirical data generating the model comprises 271 developmental events, including measures of initial neurogenesis, axon extension, establishment, and refinement of connectivity, as well as later events such as myelin formation, growth of brain volume, and early behavioral milestones, to the third year of human postnatal life. The progress of neural events across species is sufficiently predictable that a single model can be used to predict the timing of all events in all species, with a correlation of modeled values to empirical data of 0.9929. Each species' rate of progress through the event scale, described by a regression equation predicting duration of development in days, is highly correlated with adult brain size. Neural heterochrony can be seen in selective delay of retinogenesis in the cat, associated with greater numbers of rods in its retina, and delay of corticogenesis in all species but rodents and the rabbit, associated with relatively larger cortices in species with delay. Unexpectedly, precocial mammals (those unusually mature at birth) delay the onset of first neurogenesis but then progress rapidly through remaining developmental events. PMID:23616543

  7. Modeling transformations of neurodevelopmental sequences across mammalian species.

    PubMed

    Workman, Alan D; Charvet, Christine J; Clancy, Barbara; Darlington, Richard B; Finlay, Barbara L

    2013-04-24

    A general model of neural development is derived to fit 18 mammalian species, including humans, macaques, several rodent species, and six metatherian (marsupial) mammals. The goal of this work is to describe heterochronic changes in brain evolution within its basic developmental allometry, and provide an empirical basis to recognize equivalent maturational states across animals. The empirical data generating the model comprises 271 developmental events, including measures of initial neurogenesis, axon extension, establishment, and refinement of connectivity, as well as later events such as myelin formation, growth of brain volume, and early behavioral milestones, to the third year of human postnatal life. The progress of neural events across species is sufficiently predictable that a single model can be used to predict the timing of all events in all species, with a correlation of modeled values to empirical data of 0.9929. Each species' rate of progress through the event scale, described by a regression equation predicting duration of development in days, is highly correlated with adult brain size. Neural heterochrony can be seen in selective delay of retinogenesis in the cat, associated with greater numbers of rods in its retina, and delay of corticogenesis in all species but rodents and the rabbit, associated with relatively larger cortices in species with delay. Unexpectedly, precocial mammals (those unusually mature at birth) delay the onset of first neurogenesis but then progress rapidly through remaining developmental events.

  8. Estimation of the parameters of ETAS models by Simulated Annealing.

    PubMed

    Lombardi, Anna Maria

    2015-02-12

    This paper proposes a new algorithm to estimate the maximum likelihood parameters of an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model. It is based on Simulated Annealing, a versatile method that solves problems of global optimization and ensures convergence to a global optimum. The procedure is tested on both simulated and real catalogs. The main conclusion is that the method performs poorly as the size of the catalog decreases because the effect of the correlation of the ETAS parameters is more significant. These results give new insights into the ETAS model and the efficiency of the maximum-likelihood method within this context.

  9. Estimation of the parameters of ETAS models by Simulated Annealing

    PubMed Central

    Lombardi, Anna Maria

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new algorithm to estimate the maximum likelihood parameters of an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model. It is based on Simulated Annealing, a versatile method that solves problems of global optimization and ensures convergence to a global optimum. The procedure is tested on both simulated and real catalogs. The main conclusion is that the method performs poorly as the size of the catalog decreases because the effect of the correlation of the ETAS parameters is more significant. These results give new insights into the ETAS model and the efficiency of the maximum-likelihood method within this context. PMID:25673036

  10. Reactive Secondary Sequence Oxidative Pathology Polymer Model and Antioxidant Tests

    PubMed Central

    Petersen, Richard C.

    2014-01-01

    Aims To provide common Organic Chemistry/Polymer Science thermoset free-radical crosslinking Sciences for Medical understanding and also present research findings for several common vitamins/antioxidants with a new class of drugs known as free-radical inhibitors. Study Design Peroxide/Fenton transition-metal redox couples that generate free radicals were combined with unsaturated lipid oils to demonstrate thermoset-polymer chain growth by crosslinking with the α-β-unsaturated aldehyde acrolein into rubbery/adhesive solids. Further, Vitamin A and beta carotene were similarly studied for crosslink pathological potential. Also, free-radical inhibitor hydroquinone was compared for antioxidant capability with Vitamin E. Place and Duration of Study Department of Materials Science and Engineering and Department of Biomaterials, University of Alabama at Birmingham, between June 2005 and August 2012. Methodology Observations were recorded for Fenton free-radical crosslinking of unsaturated lipids and vitamin A/beta carotene by photography further with weight measurements and percent-shrinkage testing directly related to covalent crosslinking of unsaturated lipids recorded over time with different concentrations of acrolein. Also, hydroquinone and vitamin E were compared at concentrations from 0.0–7.3wt% as antioxidants for reductions in percent-shrinkage measurements, n = 5. Results Unsaturated lipid oils responded to Fenton thermoset-polymer reactive secondary sequence reactions only by acrolein with crosslinking into rubbery-type solids and different non-solid gluey products. Further, molecular oxygen crosslinking was demonstrated with lipid peroxidation and acrolein at specially identified margins. By peroxide/Fenton free-radical testing, both vitamin A and beta-carotene demonstrated possible pathology chemistry for chain-growth crosslinking. During lipid/acrolein testing over a 50 hour time period at 7.3wt% antioxidants, hydroquinone significantly reduced percent

  11. Combining next-generation sequencing and online databases for microsatellite development in non-model organisms

    PubMed Central

    Rico, Ciro; Normandeau, Eric; Dion-Côté, Anne-Marie; Rico, María Inés; Côté, Guillaume; Bernatchez, Louis

    2013-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is revolutionising marker development and the rapidly increasing amount of transcriptomes published across a wide variety of taxa is providing valuable sequence databases for the identification of genetic markers without the need to generate new sequences. Microsatellites are still the most important source of polymorphic markers in ecology and evolution. Motivated by our long-term interest in the adaptive radiation of a non-model species complex of whitefishes (Coregonus spp.), in this study, we focus on microsatellite characterisation and multiplex optimisation using transcriptome sequences generated by Illumina® and Roche-454, as well as online databases of Expressed Sequence Tags (EST) for the study of whitefish evolution and demographic history. We identified and optimised 40 polymorphic loci in multiplex PCR reactions and validated the robustness of our analyses by testing several population genetics and phylogeographic predictions using 494 fish from five lakes and 2 distinct ecotypes. PMID:24296905

  12. Analysis of similarity/dissimilarity of DNA sequences based on convolutional code model.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xiao; Tian, Feng Chun; Wang, Shi Yuan

    2010-02-01

    Based on the convolutional code model of error-correction coding theory, we propose an approach to characterize and compare DNA sequences with consideration of the effect of codon context. We construct an 8-component vector whose components are the normalized leading eigenvalues of the L/L and M/M matrices associated with the original DNA sequences and the transformed sequences. The utility of our approach is illustrated by the examination of the similarities/dissimilarities among the coding sequences of the first exon of beta-globin gene of 11 species, and the efficiency of error-correction coding theory in analysis of similarity/dissimilarity of DNA sequences is represented.

  13. Non-homogeneous models of sequence evolution in the Bio++ suite of libraries and programs

    PubMed Central

    2008-01-01

    Background Accurately modeling the sequence substitution process is required for the correct estimation of evolutionary parameters, be they phylogenetic relationships, substitution rates or ancestral states; it is also crucial to simulate realistic data sets. Such simulation procedures are needed to estimate the null-distribution of complex statistics, an approach referred to as parametric bootstrapping, and are also used to test the quality of phylogenetic reconstruction programs. It has often been observed that homologous sequences can vary widely in their nucleotide or amino-acid compositions, revealing that sequence evolution has changed importantly among lineages, and may therefore be most appropriately approached through non-homogeneous models. Several programs implementing such models have been developed, but they are limited in their possibilities: only a few particular models are available for likelihood optimization, and data sets cannot be easily generated using the resulting estimated parameters. Results We hereby present a general implementation of non-homogeneous models of substitutions. It is available as dedicated classes in the Bio++ libraries and can hence be used in any C++ program. Two programs that use these classes are also presented. The first one, Bio++ Maximum Likelihood (BppML), estimates parameters of any non-homogeneous model and the second one, Bio++ Sequence Generator (BppSeqGen), simulates the evolution of sequences from these models. These programs allow the user to describe non-homogeneous models through a property file with a simple yet powerful syntax, without any programming required. Conclusion We show that the general implementation introduced here can accommodate virtually any type of non-homogeneous models of sequence evolution, including heterotachous ones, while being computer efficient. We furthermore illustrate the use of such general models for parametric bootstrapping, using tests of non-homogeneity applied to an

  14. Using the Gauss-Newton Method to Invert for Brune Model Moment, Corner Frequency, and Kappa Parameters: Results from the Canterbury, New Zealand Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neighbors, C.; Cochran, E. S.; Ryan, K. J.; Kaiser, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    The seismic spectrum can be modeled by assuming a Brune spectrum and estimating the parameters of seismic moment (M0), corner frequency (fc), and the high frequency site attenuation (κ). Traditionally studies either hold fixed or use a predefined set of trial values for one of the parameters (e.g., fc) and then solve for the remaining parameters. Here, we use the Gauss-Newton nonlinear least-squares method to simultaneously determine the M0, fc, and high-frequency κ for each event-station pair. We use data collected during the Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence. The seismic stations include the permanent GeoNet accelerometer network as well as a dense network of nearly 200 Quake-Catcher Network (QCN) MEMs accelerometers installed following the 3 September 2010 M 7.1 Darfield earthquake. We examine over 180 aftershocks ≥ Mw3.5 that occurred from 9 September 2010 to 31 July 2011 and are captured by both networks. We use Fourier-transformed S-wave windows that include 80% of the S-wave energy and fit the acceleration spectra between 0.5 and 20 Hz. We apply a path and site correction to the data as described in Oth and Kaiser (2014). Then, the records are smoothed using a Konno and Omachi (1998) filter and uniformly resampled in log space. Initial "best guesses" for M0 and fc are determined from GNS catalog magnitudes and by assuming a 100 bar (10 MPa) stress drop and an initial κ is determined from an automated high-frequency fit method. We use a parametric inversion technique that requires a single M0 and fc for each event, while κ is allowed to vary by station to reflect varying site conditions. Final solutions for M0, fc, and κ are iteratively calculated by minimizing the residual function. After Brune (1970, 1971), the stress drop is determined from the best-fit fc. Moment magnitudes determined agree well with the GNS catalog, with a median difference of 0.12 Mw and 0.20 Mw for GeoNet and QCN inversions, respectively. Stress drop results are within

  15. How is the serial order of a verbal sequence coded? Some comparisons between models.

    PubMed

    Hitch, Graham J; Fastame, Maria Chiara; Flude, Brenda

    2005-01-01

    Current models of verbal short-term memory (STM) propose various mechanisms for serial order. These include a gradient of activation over items, associations between items, and associations between items and their positions relative to the start or end of a sequence. We compared models using a variant of Hebb's procedure in which immediate serial recall of a sequence improves if the sequence is presented more than once. However, instead of repeating a complete sequence, we repeated different aspects of serial order information common to training lists and a subsequent test list. In Experiment 1, training lists repeated all the item-item pairings in the test list, with or without the position-item pairings in the test list. Substantial learning relative to a control condition was observed only when training lists repeated item-item pairs with position-item pairs, and position was defined relative to the start rather than end of a sequence. Experiment 2 attempted to analyse the basis of this learning effect further by repeating fragments of the test list during training, where fragments consisted of either isolated position-item pairings or clusters of both position-item and item-item pairings. Repetition of sequence fragments led to only weak learning effects. However, where learning was observed it was for specific position-item pairings. We conclude that positional cues play an important role in the coding of serial order in memory but that the information required to learn a sequence goes beyond position-item associations. We suggest that whereas STM for a novel sequence is based on positional cues, learning a sequence involves the development of some additional representation of the sequence as a whole.

  16. A branch-heterogeneous model of protein evolution for efficient inference of ancestral sequences.

    PubMed

    Groussin, M; Boussau, B; Gouy, M

    2013-07-01

    Most models of nucleotide or amino acid substitution used in phylogenetic studies assume that the evolutionary process has been homogeneous across lineages and that composition of nucleotides or amino acids has remained the same throughout the tree. These oversimplified assumptions are refuted by the observation that compositional variability characterizes extant biological sequences. Branch-heterogeneous models of protein evolution that account for compositional variability have been developed, but are not yet in common use because of the large number of parameters required, leading to high computational costs and potential overparameterization. Here, we present a new branch-nonhomogeneous and nonstationary model of protein evolution that captures more accurately the high complexity of sequence evolution. This model, henceforth called Correspondence and likelihood analysis (COaLA), makes use of a correspondence analysis to reduce the number of parameters to be optimized through maximum likelihood, focusing on most of the compositional variation observed in the data. The model was thoroughly tested on both simulated and biological data sets to show its high performance in terms of data fitting and CPU time. COaLA efficiently estimates ancestral amino acid frequencies and sequences, making it relevant for studies aiming at reconstructing and resurrecting ancestral amino acid sequences. Finally, we applied COaLA on a concatenate of universal amino acid sequences to confirm previous results obtained with a nonhomogeneous Bayesian model regarding the early pattern of adaptation to optimal growth temperature, supporting the mesophilic nature of the Last Universal Common Ancestor.

  17. Antibody-specific model of amino acid substitution for immunological inferences from alignments of antibody sequences.

    PubMed

    Mirsky, Alexander; Kazandjian, Linda; Anisimova, Maria

    2015-03-01

    Antibodies are glycoproteins produced by the immune system as a dynamically adaptive line of defense against invading pathogens. Very elegant and specific mutational mechanisms allow B lymphocytes to produce a large and diversified repertoire of antibodies, which is modified and enhanced throughout all adulthood. One of these mechanisms is somatic hypermutation, which stochastically mutates nucleotides in the antibody genes, forming new sequences with different properties and, eventually, higher affinity and selectivity to the pathogenic target. As somatic hypermutation involves fast mutation of antibody sequences, this process can be described using a Markov substitution model of molecular evolution. Here, using large sets of antibody sequences from mice and humans, we infer an empirical amino acid substitution model AB, which is specific to antibody sequences. Compared with existing general amino acid models, we show that the AB model provides significantly better description for the somatic evolution of mice and human antibody sequences, as demonstrated on large next generation sequencing (NGS) antibody data. General amino acid models are reflective of conservation at the protein level due to functional constraints, with most frequent amino acids exchanges taking place between residues with the same or similar physicochemical properties. In contrast, within the variable part of antibody sequences we observed an elevated frequency of exchanges between amino acids with distinct physicochemical properties. This is indicative of a sui generis mutational mechanism, specific to antibody somatic hypermutation. We illustrate this property of antibody sequences by a comparative analysis of the network modularity implied by the AB model and general amino acid substitution models. We recommend using the new model for computational studies of antibody sequence maturation, including inference of alignments and phylogenetic trees describing antibody somatic hypermutation in

  18. Mouse Genome Database: From sequence to phenotypes and disease models.

    PubMed

    Eppig, Janan T; Richardson, Joel E; Kadin, James A; Smith, Cynthia L; Blake, Judith A; Bult, Carol J

    2015-08-01

    The Mouse Genome Database (MGD, www.informatics.jax.org) is the international scientific database for genetic, genomic, and biological data on the laboratory mouse to support the research requirements of the biomedical community. To accomplish this goal, MGD provides broad data coverage, serves as the authoritative standard for mouse nomenclature for genes, mutants, and strains, and curates and integrates many types of data from literature and electronic sources. Among the key data sets MGD supports are: the complete catalog of mouse genes and genome features, comparative homology data for mouse and vertebrate genes, the authoritative set of Gene Ontology (GO) annotations for mouse gene functions, a comprehensive catalog of mouse mutations and their phenotypes, and a curated compendium of mouse models of human diseases. Here, we describe the data acquisition process, specifics about MGD's key data areas, methods to access and query MGD data, and outreach and user help facilities. PMID:26150326

  19. Next Generation Sequencing Technologies: The Doorway to the Unexplored Genomics of Non-Model Plants

    PubMed Central

    Unamba, Chibuikem I. N.; Nag, Akshay; Sharma, Ram K.

    2015-01-01

    Non-model plants i.e., the species which have one or all of the characters such as long life cycle, difficulty to grow in the laboratory or poor fecundity, have been schemed out of sequencing projects earlier, due to high running cost of Sanger sequencing. Consequently, the information about their genomics and key biological processes are inadequate. However, the advent of fast and cost effective next generation sequencing (NGS) platforms in the recent past has enabled the unearthing of certain characteristic gene structures unique to these species. It has also aided in gaining insight about mechanisms underlying processes of gene expression and secondary metabolism as well as facilitated development of genomic resources for diversity characterization, evolutionary analysis and marker assisted breeding even without prior availability of genomic sequence information. In this review we explore how different Next Gen Sequencing platforms, as well as recent advances in NGS based high throughput genotyping technologies are rewarding efforts on de-novo whole genome/transcriptome sequencing, development of genome wide sequence based markers resources for improvement of non-model crops that are less costly than phenotyping. PMID:26734016

  20. Aftershock source mechanisms from the June 9, 1994, Deep Bolivian Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tinker, Mark Andrew; Wallace, Terry C.; Beck, Susan L.; Silver, Paul G.; Zandt, George

    The Mw 8.3 Bolivia earthquake occurred on June 9, 1994, at a depth of 636 km. This is the largest deep event in recorded history and ruptured a portion of the down-going Nazca slab unknown to have ruptured previously. We recorded the main shock and aftershocks on the BANJO and SEDA portable, broadband seismic arrays deployed in Bolivia during this event. Myers et al. (this issue) identified and located 36 aftershocks (M>2) for the 10-day period following the main shock. We use a grid search technique to determine focal mechanisms for 12 of these aftershocks ranging in magnitude from 2.7 to 5.3. We compare the observed P to SV and SH ratios to a series of synthetics that represent different fault plane orientations. We find consistent focal mechanisms with the T-axis roughly horizontal and oriented approximately east-west, and the P-axis predominantly vertical. The aftershock focal mechanisms indicate a rotation of the P-axis within the slab from down-dip compression prior to the main shock to a near-vertical direction afterwards. This observation is consistent with the release of shear stress on the near-horizontal rupture plane and the subsequent rotation of the maximum compressive stress to a fault -normal orientation.

  1. Aftershock seismicity and Tectonic Setting of the 16 September 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, Dietrich; Geersen, Jacob; Barrientos, Sergio; Moreno, Marcos; Grevemeyer, Ingo; Contreras-Reyes, Eduardo; Kopp, Heidrun

    2016-04-01

    Powerful subduction zone earthquakes rupture thousands of square kilometers along continental margins but at certain locations earthquake rupture terminates. On 16 September 2015 the Mw. 8.3 Illapel earthquake ruptured a 200 km long stretch of the Central Chilean subduction zone, triggering a tsunami and causing significant damage. Here we analyze the spatial pattern of coseismic rupture and the temporal and spatial pattern of local seismicity for aftershocks and foreshocks in relation to the tectonic setting in the earthquake area. Aftershock seismicity surrounds the rupture area in lateral and downdip direction. For the first 24 hours following the mainshock we observe aftershock migration to both lateral directions with velocities of approximately 2.5 and 5 km/h. At the southern earthquake boundary aftershocks cluster around individual subducted seamounts located on the prolongation of the downthrusting Juan Fernández Ridge indicating stress transfer from the main rupture area. In the northern part of the rupture area a deeper band of local seismicity is observed indicating an alternation of seismic to aseismic behavior of the plate interface in downdip direction. This aseismic region at ~30 km depth that is also observed before the Illapel 2015 earthquake is likely controlled by the intersection of the continental Moho with the subducting slab.

  2. Genome sequence of the model mushroom Schizophyllum commune

    SciTech Connect

    Ohm, Robin A.; de Jong, Jan F.; Lugones, Luis G.; Aerts, Andrea; Kothe, Erika; Stajich, Jason E.; de Vries, Ronald P.; Record, Eric; Levasseur, Anthony; Baker, Scott E.; Bartholomew, Kirk A.; Coutinho, Pedro M.; Erdmann, Susann; Fowler, Thomas J.; Gathman, Allen C.; Lombard, Vincent; Henrissat, Bernard; Knabe, Nicole; Kues, Ursula; Lilly, Walt; Lindquist, Erika; Lucas, Susan; Magnuson, Jon K.; Piumi, Francois; Raudaskoski, Marjatta; Salamov, Asaf; Schmutz, Jeremy; Schwarze, Francis W.; vanKuyk, Patricia A.; Horton, J. S.; Grigoriev, Igor V.; Wosten, Han

    2010-09-01

    Much remains to be learned about the biology of mushroom-forming fungi, which are an important source of food, secondary metabolites and industrial enzymes. The wood-degrading fungus Schizophyllum commune is both a genetically tractable model for studying mushroom development and a likely source of enzymes capable of efficient degradation of lignocellulosic biomass. Comparative analyses of its 38.5-megabase genome, which encodes 13,210 predicted genes, reveal the species's unique wood-degrading machinery. One-third of the 471 genes predicted to encode transcription factors are differentially expressed during sexual development of S. commune. Whereas inactivation of one of these, fst4, prevented mushroom formation, inactivation of another, fst3, resulted in more, albeit smaller, mushrooms than in the wild-type fungus. Antisense transcripts may also have a role in the formation of fruiting bodies. Better insight into the mechanisms underlying mushroom formation should affect commercial production of mushrooms and their industrial use for producing enzymes and pharmaceuticals.

  3. Object relations theory and activity theory: a proposed link by way of the procedural sequence model.

    PubMed

    Ryle, A

    1991-12-01

    An account of object relations theory (ORT), represented in terms of the procedural sequence model (PSM), is compared to the ideas of Vygotsky and activity theory (AT). The two models are seen to be compatible and complementary and their combination offers a satisfactory account of human psychology, appropriate for the understanding and integration of psychotherapy. PMID:1786224

  4. Sequence-Based Pronunciation Variation Modeling for Spontaneous ASR Using a Noisy Channel Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hofmann, Hansjörg; Sakti, Sakriani; Hori, Chiori; Kashioka, Hideki; Nakamura, Satoshi; Minker, Wolfgang

    The performance of English automatic speech recognition systems decreases when recognizing spontaneous speech mainly due to multiple pronunciation variants in the utterances. Previous approaches address this problem by modeling the alteration of the pronunciation on a phoneme to phoneme level. However, the phonetic transformation effects induced by the pronunciation of the whole sentence have not yet been considered. In this article, the sequence-based pronunciation variation is modeled using a noisy channel approach where the spontaneous phoneme sequence is considered as a “noisy” string and the goal is to recover the “clean” string of the word sequence. Hereby, the whole word sequence and its effect on the alternation of the phonemes will be taken into consideration. Moreover, the system not only learns the phoneme transformation but also the mapping from the phoneme to the word directly. In this study, first the phonemes will be recognized with the present recognition system and afterwards the pronunciation variation model based on the noisy channel approach will map from the phoneme to the word level. Two well-known natural language processing approaches are adopted and derived from the noisy channel model theory: Joint-sequence models and statistical machine translation. Both of them are applied and various experiments are conducted using microphone and telephone of spontaneous speech.

  5. Decay of aftershock density with distance does not indicate triggering by dynamic stress.

    PubMed

    Richards-Dinger, Keith; Stein, Ross S; Toda, Shinji

    2010-09-30

    Resolving whether static or dynamic stress triggers most aftershocks and subsequent mainshocks is essential to understand earthquake interaction and to forecast seismic hazard. Felzer and Brodsky examined the distance distribution of earthquakes occurring in the first five minutes after 2 ≤ M < 3 and 3 ≤ M < 4 mainshocks and found that their magnitude M ≥ 2 aftershocks showed a uniform power-law decay with slope -1.35 out to 50 km from the mainshocks. From this they argued that the distance decay could be explained only by dynamic triggering. Here we propose an alternative explanation for the decay, and subject their hypothesis to a series of tests, none of which it passes. At distances more than 300 m from the 2 ≤ M < 3 mainshocks, the seismicity decay 5 min before the mainshocks is indistinguishable from the decay five minutes afterwards, indicating that the mainshocks have no effect at distances outside their static triggering range. Omori temporal decay, the fundamental signature of aftershocks, is absent at distances exceeding 10 km from the mainshocks. Finally, the distance decay is found among aftershocks that occur before the arrival of the seismic wave front from the mainshock, which violates causality. We argue that Felzer and Brodsky implicitly assume that the first of two independent aftershocks along a fault rupture triggers the second, and that the first of two shocks in a creep- or intrusion-driven swarm triggers the second, when this need not be the case.

  6. Precision Measurements of the Cluster Red Sequence using an Error Corrected Gaussian Mixture Model

    SciTech Connect

    Hao, Jiangang; Koester, Benjamin P.; Mckay, Timothy A.; Rykoff, Eli S.; Rozo, Eduardo; Evrard, August; Annis, James; Becker, Matthew; Busha, Michael; Gerdes, David; Johnston, David E.; /Northwestern U. /Brookhaven

    2009-07-01

    The red sequence is an important feature of galaxy clusters and plays a crucial role in optical cluster detection. Measurement of the slope and scatter of the red sequence are affected both by selection of red sequence galaxies and measurement errors. In this paper, we describe a new error corrected Gaussian Mixture Model for red sequence galaxy identification. Using this technique, we can remove the effects of measurement error and extract unbiased information about the intrinsic properties of the red sequence. We use this method to select red sequence galaxies in each of the 13,823 clusters in the maxBCG catalog, and measure the red sequence ridgeline location and scatter of each. These measurements provide precise constraints on the variation of the average red galaxy populations in the observed frame with redshift. We find that the scatter of the red sequence ridgeline increases mildly with redshift, and that the slope decreases with redshift. We also observe that the slope does not strongly depend on cluster richness. Using similar methods, we show that this behavior is mirrored in a spectroscopic sample of field galaxies, further emphasizing that ridgeline properties are independent of environment. These precise measurements serve as an important observational check on simulations and mock galaxy catalogs. The observed trends in the slope and scatter of the red sequence ridgeline with redshift are clues to possible intrinsic evolution of the cluster red-sequence itself. Most importantly, the methods presented in this work lay the groundwork for further improvements in optically-based cluster cosmology.

  7. Using Regional Moment Tensors to Constrain Earthquake Processes following the 2010 Darfield and 2011 Canterbury New Zealand Earthquake Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herman, M. W.; Furlong, K. P.; Herrmann, R. B.; Benz, H.

    2011-12-01

    We model regional broadband data from the South Island of New Zealand to determine regional moment tensor solutions for the mainshock and selected aftershocks of the M7.0, 3 September 2011, M6.1, 21 February 2011 and M6.0 13 June 2011 earthquakes that occurred near Christchurch, New Zealand. Arrival time picks from both the local and regional strong motion and broadband data were used to determine preliminary earthquake locations using a previously published South Island velocity model. Rayleigh and Love surface wave dispersion measurements were then made from selected events to refine the velocity model in order to better match the predominantly large regional surface waves. RMT solutions were computed using the procedures of Herrmann et al. (2011). In total, we computed RMT solutions for 82 events in the magnitude range of Mw3.5-7.0. Although the crustal faulting behavior in the region has been argued to reflect a complex interaction of strike slip and thrust faulting, the dominant faulting style in the sequence is right-lateral, strike-slip (75 events), with nodal planes striking west-east to southwest-northeast. There are only five purely reverse mechanisms, at the western end of the sequence, in the vicinity of the Harper Hills blind thrust. The main Mw 7.0 rupture shows both local small-scale stepovers and one larger (~ 5-10 km width) right stepover near 172.40°E. Although we expect normal faulting associated with this larger stepover, during the first month after the main shock we observe only two normal fault mechanisms and 13 strike slip (inferred E-W right-lateral) events in the stepover region, and since that time, the sense of faulting has been dominated by right-lateral, strike-slip events, perhaps indicating a sequence of short E-W fault segments in the region. The February and June 2011 events occurred along the same trend at the eastern end of the sequence, and show similar strike slip mechanisms to the majority of events to the west, but the

  8. Gradual Fault Weakening with Seismic Slip: Inferences from the Seismic Sequences of L'Aquila, 2009, and Northridge, 1994

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malagnini, Luca; Munafo', Irene; Cocco, Massimo; Nielsen, Stefan; Mayeda, Kevin; Boschi, Enzo

    2014-10-01

    We estimate seismological fracture energies from two subsets of events selected from the seismic sequences of L'Aquila (2009), and Northridge (1994): 57 and 16 selected events, respectively, including the main shocks. Following Abercrombie and Rice (Geophys J Int 162: 406-424, 2005), we postulate that fracture energy (G) represents the post-failure integral of the dynamic weakening curve, which is described by the evolution of shear traction as a function of slip. Following a direct-wave approach, we compute mainshock-/aftershock-source spectral ratios, and analyze them using the approach proposed by Malagnini et al. (Pure Appl. Geophys., this issue, 2014) to infer corner frequencies and seismic moment. Our estimates of source parameters (including fracture energies) are based on best-fit grid-searches performed over empirical source spectral ratios. We quantify the source scaling of spectra from small and large earthquakes by using the MDAC formulation of W alter and Taylor (A revised Magnitude and Distance Amplitude Correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001). The source parameters presented in this paper must be considered as point-source estimates representing averages calculated over specific ruptured portions of the fault area. In order to constrain the scaling of fracture energy with coseismic slip, we investigate two different slip-weakening functions to model the shear traction as a function of slip: (i) a power law, as suggested by Abercrombie and Rice (Geophys J Int 162: 406-424, 2005), and (ii) an exponential decay. Our results show that the exponential decay of stress on the fault allows a good fit between measured and predicted fracture energies, both for the main events and for their aftershocks, regardless of the significant differences in the energy budgets between the large (main) and small earthquakes (aftershocks). Using the power-law slip-weakening function would lead us to a very different situation: in our two

  9. Aftershock asymmetry/rupture directivity among central San Andreas fault microearthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubin, Allan M.; Gillard, Dominique

    2000-08-01

    Using a waveform cross-correlation technique, we have obtained precise relative locations for nearly 75% of the Northern California Seismic Network catalog (4300 earthquakes) occurring between 1984 and 1997 along 50 km of the San Andreas fault. Errors in relative location are meters to tens of meters for events separated by tens to hundreds of meters. We find that consecutive earthquakes in the relocated catalog occur no closer than a distance approximately equal to the radius of the first rupture, as estimated from the moment-magnitude relationship of Abercrombie [1996] assuming a 10-MPa stress drop. When the relative position vectors between consecutive events are normalized by this distance and projected onto the fault surface, they define a hole whose shape suggests that typical microearthquakes are elongate in the mode II (slip-parallel) direction by several tens of percent. Moreover, of the 100 immediate aftershocks occurring closest to the mode II edges of the prior rupture, more than twice as many occur to the northwest than to the southeast. We interpret this asymmetry as resulting from the large contrast in material properties across the fault. Models of dynamic rupture between dissimilar media predict that ruptures in this region may run preferentially to the southeast, in the direction of motion of the lower-velocity material. If so, then the barriers that stop rupture fronts moving to the southeast should initially be farther from failure, on average, than the barriers that stop rupture fronts moving to the northwest. Once the rupture stops, the induced stress change is more symmetric but the fault remains farther from failure (on average) to the southeast. This interpretation receives some support from pulse width measurements on a localized set of 72 magnitude 0.6 to 3.6 earthquakes.

  10. A nonlinear dynamic model of DNA with a sequence-dependent stacking term

    PubMed Central

    Alexandrov, Boian S.; Gelev, Vladimir; Monisova, Yevgeniya; Alexandrov, Ludmil B.; Bishop, Alan R.; Rasmussen, Kim Ø.; Usheva, Anny

    2009-01-01

    No simple model exists that accurately describes the melting behavior and breathing dynamics of double-stranded DNA as a function of nucleotide sequence. This is especially true for homogenous and periodic DNA sequences, which exhibit large deviations in melting temperature from predictions made by additive thermodynamic contributions. Currently, no method exists for analysis of the DNA breathing dynamics of repeats and of highly G/C- or A/T-rich regions, even though such sequences are widespread in vertebrate genomes. Here, we extend the nonlinear Peyrard–Bishop–Dauxois (PBD) model of DNA to include a sequence-dependent stacking term, resulting in a model that can accurately describe the melting behavior of homogenous and periodic sequences. We collect melting data for several DNA oligos, and apply Monte Carlo simulations to establish force constants for the 10 dinucleotide steps (CG, CA, GC, AT, AG, AA, AC, TA, GG, TC). The experiments and numerical simulations confirm that the GG/CC dinucleotide stacking is remarkably unstable, compared with the stacking in GC/CG and CG/GC dinucleotide steps. The extended PBD model will facilitate thermodynamic and dynamic simulations of important genomic regions such as CpG islands and disease-related repeats. PMID:19264801

  11. Peptide binding landscapes: Specificity and homophilicity across sequence space in a lattice model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeon, Joohyun; Shell, M. Scott

    2016-10-01

    Peptide aggregation frequently involves sequences with strong homophilic binding character, i.e., sequences that self-assemble with like species in a crowded cellular environment, in the face of a multitude of other peptides or proteins as potential heterophilic binding partners. What kinds of sequences display a strong tendency towards homophilic binding and self-assembly, and what are the origins of this behavior? Here, we consider how sequence specificity in oligomerization processes plays out in a simple two-dimensional (2D) lattice statistical-thermodynamic peptide model that permits exhaustive examination of the entire sequence and configurational landscapes. We find that sequences with strong self-specificities have either alternating hydrophobic and hydrophilic residues or short patches of hydrophobic residues, both which minimize intramolecular hydrophobic interactions in part due to the constraints of the 2D lattice. We also find that these specificities are highly sensitive to entropic and free energetic features of the unbound conformational state, such that direct binding interaction energies alone do not capture the complete behavior. These results suggest that the ability of particular peptide sequences to self-assemble and aggregate in a many-protein environment reflects a precise balance of direct binding interactions and behavior in the unbound (monomeric) state.

  12. Modeling Seismicity Rate Changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Michael, A. J.

    2012-12-01

    The rate of M≥3 earthquakes in the central and eastern US increased beginning in 2009, particularly in regions such as Oklahoma and central Arkansas where fluid injection has occurred (Ellsworth et al., SSA abs, 2012; Horton, SRL, 2012). We compare rate changes observed in Oklahoma, which had a low background seismicity rate before 2009, to rate changes observed in central Arkansas, which had swarms prior to the start of wastewater injection (Chiu et al., BSSA, 1984; Horton, SRL, 2012). In both cases, stochastic Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models (Ogata, JASA, 1988) and statistical tests demonstrate that the background rate of independent events and the aftershock productivity must increase in 2009 in order to explain the observed increase in seismicity. Productivity is lower during the earlier tectonic swarms in Arkansas. The change in aftershock productivity may provide a way to distinguish manmade from natural earthquake rate changes and could provide insights into the physical mechanisms of induced seismicity. We fit the ETAS model, which is based on empirical aftershock scaling laws such as Omori's Law and the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution, to a 1973-2011 USGS PDE catalog of M≥3 Oklahoma earthquakes and a 1982-2012 ANSS catalog of M≥2.2 Arkansas earthquakes. To determine whether a rate increase is due to a change in background seismicity rate, aftershock productivity, or some combination of the two, we do the following: 1) fit the model parameters to the data, 2) convert origin times to transformed times (Ogata, JGR, 1992), and 3) use Runs and autocorrelation function tests to test the null hypothesis that the transformed times are drawn from a Poisson distribution with constant rate (as expected when no external processes trigger earthquakes besides a constant tectonic loading rate). In both cases a single set of parameters cannot fit the entire time period, suggesting that significant changes in the underlying process occurred

  13. On Sequence Learning Models: Open-loop Control Not Strictly Guided by Hick’s Law

    PubMed Central

    Pavão, Rodrigo; Savietto, Joice P.; Sato, João R.; Xavier, Gilberto F.; Helene, André F.

    2016-01-01

    According to the Hick’s law, reaction times increase linearly with the uncertainty of target stimuli. We tested the generality of this law by measuring reaction times in a human sequence learning protocol involving serial target locations which differed in transition probability and global entropy. Our results showed that sigmoid functions better describe the relationship between reaction times and uncertainty when compared to linear functions. Sequence predictability was estimated by distinct statistical predictors: conditional probability, conditional entropy, joint probability and joint entropy measures. Conditional predictors relate to closed-loop control models describing that performance is guided by on-line access to past sequence structure to predict next location. Differently, joint predictors relate to open-loop control models assuming global access of sequence structure, requiring no constant monitoring. We tested which of these predictors better describe performance on the sequence learning protocol. Results suggest that joint predictors are more accurate than conditional predictors to track performance. In conclusion, sequence learning is better described as an open-loop process which is not precisely predicted by Hick’s law. PMID:26975409

  14. JiffyNet: a web-based instant protein network modeler for newly sequenced species.

    PubMed

    Kim, Eiru; Kim, Hanhae; Lee, Insuk

    2013-07-01

    Revolutionary DNA sequencing technology has enabled affordable genome sequencing for numerous species. Thousands of species already have completely decoded genomes, and tens of thousands more are in progress. Naturally, parallel expansion of the functional parts list library is anticipated, yet genome-level understanding of function also requires maps of functional relationships, such as functional protein networks. Such networks have been constructed for many sequenced species including common model organisms. Nevertheless, the majority of species with sequenced genomes still have no protein network models available. Moreover, biologists might want to obtain protein networks for their species of interest on completion of the genome projects. Therefore, there is high demand for accessible means to automatically construct genome-scale protein networks based on sequence information from genome projects only. Here, we present a public web server, JiffyNet, specifically designed to instantly construct genome-scale protein networks based on associalogs (functional associations transferred from a template network by orthology) for a query species with only protein sequences provided. Assessment of the networks by JiffyNet demonstrated generally high predictive ability for pathway annotations. Furthermore, JiffyNet provides network visualization and analysis pages for wide variety of molecular concepts to facilitate network-guided hypothesis generation. JiffyNet is freely accessible at http://www.jiffynet.org.

  15. Genome sequence analysis of the model grass Brachypodium distachyon: insights into grass genome evolution

    SciTech Connect

    Schulman, Al

    2009-08-09

    Three subfamilies of grasses, the Erhardtoideae (rice), the Panicoideae (maize, sorghum, sugar cane and millet), and the Pooideae (wheat, barley and cool season forage grasses) provide the basis of human nutrition and are poised to become major sources of renewable energy. Here we describe the complete genome sequence of the wild grass Brachypodium distachyon (Brachypodium), the first member of the Pooideae subfamily to be completely sequenced. Comparison of the Brachypodium, rice and sorghum genomes reveals a precise sequence- based history of genome evolution across a broad diversity of the grass family and identifies nested insertions of whole chromosomes into centromeric regions as a predominant mechanism driving chromosome evolution in the grasses. The relatively compact genome of Brachypodium is maintained by a balance of retroelement replication and loss. The complete genome sequence of Brachypodium, coupled to its exceptional promise as a model system for grass research, will support the development of new energy and food crops

  16. From expression cloning to gene modeling: The development of Xenopus gene sequence resources

    PubMed Central

    Gilchrist, Michael J

    2012-01-01

    The Xenopus community has made concerted efforts over the last 10–12 years systematically to improve the available sequence information for this amphibian model organism ideally suited to the study of early development in vertebrates. Here I review progress in the collection of both sequence data and physical clone reagents for protein coding genes. I conclude that we have cDNA sequences for around 50% and full-length clones for about 35% of the genes in Xenopus tropicalis, and similar numbers but a smaller proportion for Xenopus laevis. In addition, I demonstrate that the gaps in the current genome assembly create problems for the computational elucidation of gene sequences, and suggest some ways to ameliorate the effects of this. genesis 50:143–154, 2012. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:22344767

  17. The Pacific and Philippine Sea slabs in contact beneath Tokyo, central Japan: their roles in defining hazardous interaction earthquakes and in limiting the southern extent of Tohoku-oki aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okaya, D. A.; Sato, H.; Lavier, L. L.; Tan, E.; Wu, F. T.; Hirata, N.

    2011-12-01

    The M9 Tohoku-oki earthquake produced over 11,000 >M3 aftershocks within the first four months after its 2011 March 11 occurrence date. The majority of these aftershocks define the earthquake source region between the subducting Pacific plate (PAC) and its overlying Eurasian plate (EUR) along the Japan Trench. While this portion of the trench boundary extends southward to the Boso triple junction (latitude ~34.3 oN), the Tohoku-oki aftershocks predominantly terminate at ~35.7 oN. Between these two latitudes there is a marked dropoff in aftershocks, most noticably offshore of Boso Peninsula, eastern Kanto, which we refer to as the off-Boso aftershock gap. Inside this gap, after