HMO penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted hospital mortality.

PubMed

Mukamel, D B; Zwanziger, J; Tomaszewski, K J

2001-12-01

HMOs have been shown to have an effect on the care provided directly to their enrollees. They may also influence the care provided to individuals in fee-for-service plans through a spill-over effect. The objective of this study was to investigate the associations among HMO market penetration, HMO and hospital competition, and the quality of care received by Medicare fee-for-service patients measured by risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates. The 1990 data for 1,927 hospitals in 134 metropolitan statistical areas (with five or more hospitals) included Medicare fee-for-service risk-adjusted mortality rates from the Medicare Hospital Information Reports, hospital characteristics from the American Hospital Association annual survey, and HMO market penetration and competition calculated from InterStudy and Group Health Association of America data. Statistical regression techniques were used to identify the associations between HMO market penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted mortality, controlling for other hospital characteristics and region. Higher HMO market penetration and to a lesser degree increased HMO competition were associated with better mortality outcomes for fee-for-service Medicare enrollees. Competition between hospitals did not exhibit a significant association. HMOs may have a spill-over effect on quality of care received by individuals enrolled in fee-for-service plans. These findings may be explained by a positive effect on local practice styles or a preferential selection by HMOs for areas with better hospital care.

HMO penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted hospital mortality.

PubMed Central

Mukamel, D B; Zwanziger, J; Tomaszewski, K J

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE: HMOs have been shown to have an effect on the care provided directly to their enrollees. They may also influence the care provided to individuals in fee-for-service plans through a spill-over effect. The objective of this study was to investigate the associations among HMO market penetration, HMO and hospital competition, and the quality of care received by Medicare fee-for-service patients measured by risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates. DATA SOURCES: The 1990 data for 1,927 hospitals in 134 metropolitan statistical areas (with five or more hospitals) included Medicare fee-for-service risk-adjusted mortality rates from the Medicare Hospital Information Reports, hospital characteristics from the American Hospital Association annual survey, and HMO market penetration and competition calculated from InterStudy and Group Health Association of America data. STUDY DESIGN: Statistical regression techniques were used to identify the associations between HMO market penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted mortality, controlling for other hospital characteristics and region. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Higher HMO market penetration and to a lesser degree increased HMO competition were associated with better mortality outcomes for fee-for-service Medicare enrollees. Competition between hospitals did not exhibit a significant association. CONCLUSIONS: HMOs may have a spill-over effect on quality of care received by individuals enrolled in fee-for-service plans. These findings may be explained by a positive effect on local practice styles or a preferential selection by HMOs for areas with better hospital care. PMID:11775665

The Preschool-Aged and School-Aged Children Present Different Odds of Mortality than Adults in Southern Taiwan: A Cross-Sectional Retrospective Analysis.

PubMed

Peng, Shu-Hui; Huang, Chun-Ying; Hsu, Shiun-Yuan; Yang, Li-Hui; Hsieh, Ching-Hua

2018-04-25

Background : This study aimed to profile the epidemiology of injury among preschool-aged and school-aged children in comparison to those in adults. Methods : According to the Trauma Registry System of a level I trauma center, the medical data were retrieved from 938 preschool-aged children (aged less than seven years), 670 school-aged children (aged 7⁻12 years), and 16,800 adults (aged 20⁻64 years) between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2016. Two-sided Pearson’s, chi-squared, and Fisher’s exact tests were used to compare categorical data. A one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with the Games-Howell post-hoc test was used to assess the differences in continuous variables among different groups of patients. The mortality outcomes of different subgroups were assessed by a multivariable regression model under the adjustment of sex, injury mechanisms, and injury severity. Results : InFsupppjury mechanisms in preschool-aged and school-aged children were remarkably different from that in adults; in preschool-aged children, burns were the most common cause of injury requiring hospitalization (37.4%), followed by falls (35.1%) and being struck by/against objects (11.6%). In school-aged children, injuries were most commonly sustained from falls (47.8%), followed by bicycle accidents (14%) and being struck by/against objects (12.5%). Compared to adults, there was no significant difference of the adjusted mortality of the preschool-aged children (AOR = 0.9; 95% CI 0.38⁻2.12; p = 0.792) but there were lower adjusted odds of mortality of the school-aged children (AOR = 0.4; 95% CI 0.10⁻0.85; p = 0.039). The school-aged children had lower odds of mortality than adults (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.06⁻0.74; p = 0.012), but such lower odds of risk of mortality were not found in preschool-aged children (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.29⁻1.81; p = 0.646). Conclusions : This study suggests that specific types of injuries from different injury mechanisms are predominant among

State infant mortality: an ecologic study to determine modifiable risks and adjusted infant mortality rates.

PubMed

Paul, David A; Mackley, Amy; Locke, Robert G; Stefano, John L; Kroelinger, Charlan

2009-05-01

To determine factors contributing to state infant mortality rates (IMR) and develop an adjusted IMR in the United States for 2001 and 2002. Ecologic study of factors contributing to state IMR. State IMR for 2001 and 2002 were obtained from the United States linked death and birth certificate data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Factors investigated using multivariable linear regression included state racial demographics, ethnicity, state population, median income, education, teen birth rate, proportion of obesity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, hypertension, cesarean delivery, prenatal care, health insurance, self-report of mental illness, and number of in-vitro fertilization procedures. Final risk adjusted IMR's were standardized and states were compared with the United States adjusted rates. Models for IMR in individual states in 2001 (r2 = 0.66, P < 0.01) and 2002 (r2 = 0.81, P < 0.01) were tested. African-American race, teen birth rate, and smoking during pregnancy remained independently associated with state infant mortality rates for 2001 and 2002. Ninety five percent confidence intervals (CI) were calculated around the regression lines to model the expected IMR. After adjustment, some states maintained a consistent IMR; for instance, Vermont and New Hampshire remained low, while Delaware and Louisiana remained high. However, other states such as Mississippi, which have traditionally high infant mortality rates, remained within the expected 95% CI for IMR after adjustment indicating confounding affected the initial unadjusted rates. Non-modifiable demographic variables, including the percentage of non-Hispanic African-American and Hispanic populations of the state are major factors contributing to individual variation in state IMR. Race and ethnicity may confound or modify the IMR in states that shifted inside or outside the 95% CI following adjustment. Other factors including smoking during pregnancy and teen birth rate, which are

Foetal mortality, infant mortality, and age of parents. An overview.

PubMed

Gourbin, C

2005-11-01

This review article examines the relationship between late foetal and infant mortality, and age of parents. The highest risks are observed at older maternal ages for foetal mortality and at both extremes of reproductive ages for infant mortality. For infant morbidity, the role of intermediate variables is discussed. Increasing paternal age seems to be related to higher foetal and neonatal mortality.

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981-2000.

PubMed

Pérez-Farinós, Napoleón; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

2006-05-03

The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981-2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising trend in the east than in the west, and low rates on an upward trend

Investigation of risk factors for mortality in aged guide dogs: A retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Hoummady, S; Hua, J; Muller, C; Pouchelon, J L; Blondot, M; Gilbert, C; Desquilbet, L

2016-09-15

The overall median lifespan of domestic dogs has been estimated to 9-12 years, but little is known about risk factors for mortality in aged and a priori healthy dogs. The objective of this retrospective cohort study was to determine which characteristics are associated with mortality in aged and a priori healthy guide dogs, in a retrospective cohort study of 116 guide dogs followed from a systematic geriatric examination at the age of 8-10 years old. A geriatric grid collected the clinical data and usual biological parameters were measured at the time of examination. Univariate (Kaplan-Meier estimates) and multivariable (Cox proportional hazard model) survival analyses were used to assess the associations with time to all-cause death. The majority of dogs were Golden Retrievers (n=48) and Labrador Retrievers (n=27). Median age at geriatric examination was 8.9 years. A total of 76 dogs died during follow-up, leading to a median survival time from geriatric examination of 4.4 years. After adjustment for demographic and biological variables, an increased alanine amionotransferase level (adjusted Hazard Ratio (adjusted HR), 6.2; 95% confidence interval [95%CI], 2.0-19.0; P<0.01), presenting skin nodules (adjusted HR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.0-3.4; P=0.04), and not being a Labrador Retriever (adjusted HR, 3.3; 95%CI, 1.4-10; P<0.01) were independently associated with a shorter time to death. This study documents independent associations of alanine aminotransferase level, skin nodules and breed with mortality in aged guide dogs. These results may be useful for preventive medical care when conducting a geriatric examination in working dogs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Novel Lung Disease Phenotype Adjusted for Mortality Attrition for Cystic Fibrosis Genetic Modifier Studies

PubMed Central

Taylor, Chelsea; Commander, Clayton W.; Collaco, Joseph M.; Strug, Lisa J.; Li, Weili; Wright, Fred A.; Webel, Aaron D.; Pace, Rhonda G.; Stonebraker, Jaclyn R.; Naughton, Kathleen; Dorfman, Ruslan; Sandford, Andrew; Blackman, Scott M.; Berthiaume, Yves; Paré, Peter; Drumm, Mitchell L.; Zielenski, Julian; Durie, Peter; Cutting, Garry R.; Knowles, Michael R.; Corey, Mary

2011-01-01

SUMMARY Genetic studies of lung disease in Cystic Fibrosis are hampered by the lack of a severity measure that accounts for chronic disease progression and mortality attrition. Further, combining analyses across studies requires common phenotypes that are robust to study design and patient ascertainment. Using data from the North American Cystic Fibrosis Modifier Consortium (Canadian Consortium for CF Genetic Studies, Johns Hopkins University CF Twin and Sibling Study, and University of North Carolina/Case Western Reserve University Gene Modifier Study), the authors calculated age-specific CF percentile values of FEV1 which were adjusted for CF age-specific mortality data. The phenotype was computed for 2061 patients representing the Canadian CF population, 1137 extreme phenotype patients in the UNC/Case Western study, and 1323 patients from multiple CF sib families in the CF Twin and Sibling Study. Despite differences in ascertainment and median age, our phenotype score was distributed in all three samples in a manner consistent with ascertainment differences, reflecting the lung disease severity of each individual in the underlying population. The new phenotype score was highly correlated with the previously recommended complex phenotype, but the new phenotype is more robust for shorter follow-up and for extreme ages. A disease progression and mortality adjusted phenotype reduces the need for stratification or additional covariates, increasing statistical power and avoiding possible distortions. This approach will facilitate large scale genetic and environmental epidemiological studies which will provide targeted therapeutic pathways for the clinical benefit of patients with CF. PMID:21462361

The associations of parity and maternal age with small-for-gestational-age, preterm, and neonatal and infant mortality: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Previous studies have reported on adverse neonatal outcomes associated with parity and maternal age. Many of these studies have relied on cross-sectional data, from which drawing causal inference is complex. We explore the associations between parity/maternal age and adverse neonatal outcomes using data from cohort studies conducted in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Methods Data from 14 cohort studies were included. Parity (nulliparous, parity 1-2, parity ≥3) and maternal age (<18 years, 18-<35 years, ≥35 years) categories were matched with each other to create exposure categories, with those who are parity 1-2 and age 18-<35 years as the reference. Outcomes included small-for-gestational-age (SGA), preterm, neonatal and infant mortality. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were calculated per study and meta-analyzed. Results Nulliparous, age <18 year women, compared with women who were parity 1-2 and age 18-<35 years had the highest odds of SGA (pooled adjusted OR: 1.80), preterm (pooled aOR: 1.52), neonatal mortality (pooled aOR: 2.07), and infant mortality (pooled aOR: 1.49). Increased odds were also noted for SGA and neonatal mortality for nulliparous/age 18-<35 years, preterm, neonatal, and infant mortality for parity ≥3/age 18-<35 years, and preterm and neonatal mortality for parity ≥3/≥35 years. Conclusions Nulliparous women <18 years of age have the highest odds of adverse neonatal outcomes. Family planning has traditionally been the least successful in addressing young age as a risk factor; a renewed focus must be placed on finding effective interventions that delay age at first birth. Higher odds of adverse outcomes are also seen among parity ≥3 / age ≥35 mothers, suggesting that reproductive health interventions need to address the entirety of a woman’s reproductive period. Funding Funding was provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (810-2054) by a grant to the US Fund for UNICEF to support the activities of the Child

Comparing self-reported health status and diagnosis-based risk adjustment to predict 1- and 2 to 5-year mortality.

PubMed

Pietz, Kenneth; Petersen, Laura A

2007-04-01

To compare the ability of two diagnosis-based risk adjustment systems and health self-report to predict short- and long-term mortality. Data were obtained from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) administrative databases. The study population was 78,164 VA beneficiaries at eight medical centers during fiscal year (FY) 1998, 35,337 of whom completed an 36-Item Short Form Health Survey for veterans (SF-36V) survey. We tested the ability of Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs), Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACGs), SF-36V Physical Component score (PCS) and Mental Component Score (MCS), and eight SF-36V scales to predict 1- and 2-5 year all-cause mortality. The additional predictive value of adding PCS and MCS to ACGs and DCGs was also evaluated. Logistic regression models were compared using Akaike's information criterion, the c-statistic, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The c-statistics for the eight scales combined with age and gender were 0.766 for 1-year mortality and 0.771 for 2-5-year mortality. For DCGs with age and gender the c-statistics for 1- and 2-5-year mortality were 0.778 and 0.771, respectively. Adding PCS and MCS to the DCG model increased the c-statistics to 0.798 for 1-year and 0.784 for 2-5-year mortality. The DCG model showed slightly better performance than the eight-scale model in predicting 1-year mortality, but the two models showed similar performance for 2-5-year mortality. Health self-report may add health risk information in addition to age, gender, and diagnosis for predicting longer-term mortality.

Severity-Adjusted Mortality in Trauma Patients Transported by Police

PubMed Central

Band, Roger A.; Salhi, Rama A.; Holena, Daniel N.; Powell, Elizabeth; Branas, Charles C.; Carr, Brendan G.

2018-01-01

Study objective Two decades ago, Philadelphia began allowing police transport of patients with penetrating trauma. We conduct a large, multiyear, citywide analysis of this policy. We examine the association between mode of out-of-hospital transport (police department versus emergency medical services [EMS]) and mortality among patients with penetrating trauma in Philadelphia. Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of trauma registry data. Patients who sustained any proximal penetrating trauma and presented to any Level I or II trauma center in Philadelphia between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2007, were included. Analyses were conducted with logistic regression models and were adjusted for injury severity with the Trauma and Injury Severity Score and for case mix with a modified Charlson index. Results Four thousand one hundred twenty-two subjects were identified. Overall mortality was 27.4%. In unadjusted analyses, patients transported by police were more likely to die than patients transported by ambulance (29.8% versus 26.5%; OR 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00 to 1.39). In adjusted models, no significant difference was observed in overall mortality between the police department and EMS groups (odds ratio [OR] 0.78; 95% CI 0.61 to 1.01). In subgroup analysis, patients with severe injury (Injury Severity Score >15) (OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.59 to 0.90), patients with gunshot wounds (OR 0.70; 95% CI 0.53 to 0.94), and patients with stab wounds (OR 0.19; 95% CI 0.08 to 0.45) were more likely to survive if transported by police. Conclusion We found no significant overall difference in adjusted mortality between patients transported by the police department compared with EMS but found increased adjusted survival among 3 key subgroups of patients transported by police. This practice may augment traditional care. PMID:24387925

Onset of mortality increase with age and age trajectories of mortality from all diseases in the four Nordic countries.

PubMed

Dolejs, Josef; Marešová, Petra

2017-01-01

The answer to the question "At what age does aging begin?" is tightly related to the question "Where is the onset of mortality increase with age?" Age affects mortality rates from all diseases differently than it affects mortality rates from nonbiological causes. Mortality increase with age in adult populations has been modeled by many authors, and little attention has been given to mortality decrease with age after birth. Nonbiological causes are excluded, and the category "all diseases" is studied. It is analyzed in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the period 1994-2011, and all possible models are screened. Age trajectories of mortality are analyzed separately: before the age category where mortality reaches its minimal value and after the age category. Resulting age trajectories from all diseases showed a strong minimum, which was hidden in total mortality. The inverse proportion between mortality and age fitted in 54 of 58 cases before mortality minimum. The Gompertz model with two parameters fitted as mortality increased with age in 17 of 58 cases after mortality minimum, and the Gompertz model with a small positive quadratic term fitted data in the remaining 41 cases. The mean age where mortality reached minimal value was 8 (95% confidence interval 7.05-8.95) years. The figures depict an age where the human population has a minimal risk of death from biological causes. Inverse proportion and the Gompertz model fitted data on both sides of the mortality minimum, and three parameters determined the shape of the age-mortality trajectory. Life expectancy should be determined by the two standard Gompertz parameters and also by the single parameter in the model c/x. All-disease mortality represents an alternative tool to study the impact of age. All results are based on published data.

Cancer mortality in central Serbia.

PubMed

Markovic-Denic, Ljiljana; Cirkovic, Andia; Zivkovic, Snezana; Stanic, Danica; Skodric-Trifunovic, Vesna

2014-01-01

Cancer is the one of the leading cause of death worldwide. The aim of this study was to examine cancer mortality trends in the population of central Serbia in the period from 2002 to 2011. The descriptive epidemiological method was used. The mortality from all malignant tumors (code C00-C96 of the International Disease Classification) was registered. The source of mortality data was the published material of the Cancer Registry of Serbia. The source of population data was the census of 2002 and 2011 and the estimates for inter-census years. Non-standardized, age-adjusted and age-specific mortality rates were calculated. Age adjustment of mortality rates was performed by the direct method of standardization. Trend lines were estimated using linear regression. During 2002-2011, cancer caused about 20% of all deaths each year in central Serbia. More men (56.9%) than women (43.1%) died of cancer. The average mortality rate for men was 1.3 times higher compared to women. A significant trend of increase of the age-adjusted mortality rates was recorded both for males (p<0.001) and for females (p=0.02). Except gastric cancer, the age-adjusted mortality rates in men were significantly increased for lung cancer (p=0.02), colorectal cancer (p<0.05), prostate cancer (p=0.01) and pancreatic cancer (p=0.01). Age-adjusted mortality rates for breast cancer in females were remarkably increased (p=0.01), especially after 2007. In central Serbia during the period from 2002 to 2011, there was an increasing trend in mortality rates due to cancers in both sexes. Cancer mortality in males was 1.3-fold higher compared to females.

Cancer Specific Mortality in Men Diagnosed with Prostate Cancer before Age 50 Years: A Nationwide Population Based Study.

PubMed

Thorstenson, Andreas; Garmo, Hans; Adolfsson, Jan; Bratt, Ola

2017-01-01

We compared clinical characteristics and cancer specific mortality in men diagnosed with prostate cancer before vs after age 50 years. A total of 919 men 35 to 49 years old and 45,098 men 50 to 66 years old who were diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1998 and 2012 were identified in PCBaSe (Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden). Cancer specific mortality was compared among age groups (35 to 49, 50 to 59, 60 to 63 and 64 to 66 years) with and without adjusting for cancer characteristics, comorbidity and education in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. Clinical cancer characteristics indicated that most nonmetastatic cancer in men younger than 50 years was detected after prostate specific antigen testing. The proportion of nonmetastatic vs metastatic disease at diagnosis was similar in all age groups. A strong association between younger age and poor prognosis was apparent in men in whom metastatic disease was diagnosed before age 50 to 55 years. The crude and adjusted HRs of cancer specific mortality were 1.41 (95% CI 1.12-1.79) and 1.28 (95% CI 1.01-1.62) in men diagnosed before age 50 and at age 50 to 59 years, respectively. In men with nonmetastatic disease crude cancer specific mortality increased with older age but adjusted cancer specific mortality was similar in all age groups. Our findings suggest that an aggressive form of metastatic prostate cancer is particularly common in men younger than 50 to 55 years. Genetic studies and trials of intensified systemic treatment are warranted in this patient group. Copyright © 2017 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lifestyle changes at middle age and mortality: a population-based prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Berstad, Paula; Botteri, Edoardo; Larsen, Inger Kristin; Løberg, Magnus; Kalager, Mette; Holme, Øyvind; Bretthauer, Michael; Hoff, Geir

2017-01-01

The effect of modifying lifestyle at middle age on mortality has been sparsely examined. Men and women aged 50-54 years randomised to the control group (no intervention) in the population-based Norwegian Colorectal Cancer Prevention trial were asked to fill in lifestyle questionnaires in 2001 and 2004. Lifestyle scores were estimated ranging from 0 (poorest) to 4 (best) based on health recommendations (non-smoking, daily physical activity, body mass index <25.0 kg/m 2 and healthy diet). Outcomes were all-cause, cancer and cardiovascular mortality before 31 December 2013. Of the 6886 attainable individuals included in the study, 4211 (61%) responded to the baseline questionnaire in 2001. After a median follow-up of 12.3 years, 226 (5.4%) of the baseline questionnaire responders died; 110 (49%) from cancer and 32 (14%) from cardiovascular disease. For each increment in lifestyle score in 2001, a 21% lower all-cause mortality was observed (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.94, adjusted for age, sex, occupational working hours and chronic disease or pain during 3 years before enrolment). A one-point increase in lifestyle score from 2001 to 2004 was associated with a 38% reduction in all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.62, CI 0.45 to 0.84). The group reporting lifestyle change from score 0-1 (unfavourable) in 2001 to score 2-4 (favourable) in 2004 had 4.8 fewer deaths per 1000 person years, compared with the group maintaining an 'unfavourable' lifestyle (adjusted HR 0.31, CI 0.13 to 0.70 for all-cause mortality). Favourable lifestyle changes at age 50-60 years may prevent early death. NCT00119912; pre-results. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Brain age predicts mortality

PubMed Central

Cole, J H; Ritchie, S J; Bastin, M E; Valdés Hernández, M C; Muñoz Maniega, S; Royle, N; Corley, J; Pattie, A; Harris, S E; Zhang, Q; Wray, N R; Redmond, P; Marioni, R E; Starr, J M; Cox, S R; Wardlaw, J M; Sharp, D J; Deary, I J

2018-01-01

Age-associated disease and disability are placing a growing burden on society. However, ageing does not affect people uniformly. Hence, markers of the underlying biological ageing process are needed to help identify people at increased risk of age-associated physical and cognitive impairments and ultimately, death. Here, we present such a biomarker, ‘brain-predicted age’, derived using structural neuroimaging. Brain-predicted age was calculated using machine-learning analysis, trained on neuroimaging data from a large healthy reference sample (N=2001), then tested in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (N=669), to determine relationships with age-associated functional measures and mortality. Having a brain-predicted age indicative of an older-appearing brain was associated with: weaker grip strength, poorer lung function, slower walking speed, lower fluid intelligence, higher allostatic load and increased mortality risk. Furthermore, while combining brain-predicted age with grey matter and cerebrospinal fluid volumes (themselves strong predictors) not did improve mortality risk prediction, the combination of brain-predicted age and DNA-methylation-predicted age did. This indicates that neuroimaging and epigenetics measures of ageing can provide complementary data regarding health outcomes. Our study introduces a clinically-relevant neuroimaging ageing biomarker and demonstrates that combining distinct measurements of biological ageing further helps to determine risk of age-related deterioration and death. PMID:28439103

Comparing Self-Reported Health Status and Diagnosis-Based Risk Adjustment to Predict 1- and 2 to 5-Year Mortality

PubMed Central

Pietz, Kenneth; Petersen, Laura A

2007-01-01

Objectives To compare the ability of two diagnosis-based risk adjustment systems and health self-report to predict short- and long-term mortality. Data Sources/Study Setting Data were obtained from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) administrative databases. The study population was 78,164 VA beneficiaries at eight medical centers during fiscal year (FY) 1998, 35,337 of whom completed an 36-Item Short Form Health Survey for veterans (SF-36V) survey. Study Design We tested the ability of Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs), Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACGs), SF-36V Physical Component score (PCS) and Mental Component Score (MCS), and eight SF-36V scales to predict 1- and 2–5 year all-cause mortality. The additional predictive value of adding PCS and MCS to ACGs and DCGs was also evaluated. Logistic regression models were compared using Akaike's information criterion, the c-statistic, and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. Principal Findings The c-statistics for the eight scales combined with age and gender were 0.766 for 1-year mortality and 0.771 for 2–5-year mortality. For DCGs with age and gender the c-statistics for 1- and 2–5-year mortality were 0.778 and 0.771, respectively. Adding PCS and MCS to the DCG model increased the c-statistics to 0.798 for 1-year and 0.784 for 2–5-year mortality. Conclusions The DCG model showed slightly better performance than the eight-scale model in predicting 1-year mortality, but the two models showed similar performance for 2–5-year mortality. Health self-report may add health risk information in addition to age, gender, and diagnosis for predicting longer-term mortality. PMID:17362210

Accelerometer-Measured Physical Activity and Mortality in Women Aged 63 to 99.

PubMed

LaMonte, Michael J; Buchner, David M; Rillamas-Sun, Eileen; Di, Chongzhi; Evenson, Kelley R; Bellettiere, John; Lewis, Cora E; Lee, I-Min; Tinker, Lesly F; Seguin, Rebecca; Zaslovsky, Oleg; Eaton, Charles B; Stefanick, Marcia L; LaCroix, Andrea Z

2018-05-01

To prospectively examine associations between accelerometer-measured physical activity (PA) and mortality in older women, with an emphasis on light-intensity PA. Prospective cohort study with baseline data collection between March 2012 and April 2014. Women's Health Initiative cohort in the United States. Community-dwelling women aged 63 to 99 (N = 6,382). Minutes per day of usual PA measured using hip-worn triaxial accelerometers, physical functioning measured using the Short Physical Performance Battery, mortality follow-up for a mean 3.1 years through September 2016 (450 deaths). When adjusted for accelerometer wear time, age, race-ethnicity, education, smoking, alcohol, self-rated health, and comorbidities, relative risks (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality across PA tertiles were 1.00 (referent), 0.86 (0.69, 1.08), 0.80 (0.62, 1.03) trend P = .07, for low light; 1.00, 0.57 (0.45, 0.71), 0.47 (0.35, 0.61) trend P < .001, for high light; and, 1.00, 0.63 (0.50, 0.79), 0.42 (0.30, 0.57) trend P < .001, for moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA). Associations remained significant for high light-intensity PA and MVPA (P < .001) after further adjustment for physical function. Each 30-min/d increment in light-intensity (low and high combined) PA and MVPA was associated, on average, with multivariable relative risk reductions of 12% and 39%, respectively (P < .01). After further simultaneous adjusting for light intensity and MVPA, the inverse associations remained significant (light-intensity PA: RR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.89-0.97; MVPA: RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.58-0.78). These relative risks did not differ between subgroups for age or race and ethnicity (interaction, P ≥ .14, all). When measured using accelerometers, light-intensity and MVPA are associated with lower mortality in older women. These findings suggest that replacing sedentary time with light-intensity PA is a public health strategy that could benefit an aging society and warrants further investigation

Frequency of Leaving the House and Mortality from Age 70 to 95.

PubMed

Jacobs, Jeremy M; Hammerman-Rozenberg, Aliza; Stessman, Jochanan

2018-01-01

To determine the association between frequency of leaving the house and mortality. Prospective follow-up of an age-homogenous, representative, community-dwelling birth cohort (born 1920-21) from the Jerusalem Longitudinal Study (1990-2015). Home. Individuals aged 70 (n = 593), 78 (n = 973), 85 (n = 1164), and 90 (n = 645), examined in 1990, 1998, 2005, and 2010, respectively. Frequency of leaving the house, defined as daily (6-7/week), often (2-5/week), and rarely (≤1/week); geriatric assessment; all-cause mortality (2010-15). Kaplan-Meier survival charts and proportional hazards models adjusted for social (sex, marital status, financial status, loneliness), functional (sex, self-rated health, fatigue, depression, physical activity, activity of daily living difficulty), and medical (sex, chronic pain, visual impairment, hearing impairment, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, chronic kidney disease) covariates. At ages 70, 78, 85, and 90, frequency of going out daily was 87.0%, 80.6%, 65.6%, and 48.4%; often was 6.4%, 9.5%, 17.4%, and 11.3%; and rarely was 6.6%, 10.0%, 17.0%, and 40.3% respectively. Decreasing frequency of going out was associated with negative social, functional, and medical characteristics. Survival rates were lowest among those leaving rarely and highest among those going out daily throughout follow-up. Similarly, compared with rarely leaving the house, unadjusted mortality hazard ratios (HRs) were lowest among subjects leaving daily and remained significant after adjustment for social, functional and medical covariates. Among subjects leaving often, unadjusted HRs showed a similar effect of smaller magnitude, with attenuation of significance after adjustment in certain models. Findings were unchanged after excluding subjects dying within 6 months of follow-up. In community-dwelling elderly adults aged 70 to 90, leaving the house daily was associated with lower mortality risk, independent of social, functional, or

Meta-analysis of Marital Dissolution and Mortality: Reevaluating the Intersection of Gender and Age

PubMed Central

Shor, Eran; Roelfs, David J.; Bugyi, Paul; Schwartz, Joseph E.

2013-01-01

The study of marital dissolution (i.e. divorce and separation) and mortality has long been a major topic of interest for social scientists. We conducted meta-analyses and meta-regressions on 625 mortality risk estimates from 104 studies, published between 1955 and 2011, covering 24 countries, and providing data on more than 600 million persons. The mean hazard ratio (HR) for mortality in our meta-analysis was 1.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23-1.37) among HRs adjusted for age and additional covariates. The mean HR was higher for men (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.27-1.49) than for women (HR, 1.22; 95% CI: 1.13-1.32), but the difference between men and women decreases as the mean age increases. Other significant moderators of HR magnitude included sample size; being from Western Europe, Israel, the United Kingdom and former Commonwealth nations; and statistical adjustment for general health status. PMID:22534377

Meta-analysis of marital dissolution and mortality: reevaluating the intersection of gender and age.

PubMed

Shor, Eran; Roelfs, David J; Bugyi, Paul; Schwartz, Joseph E

2012-07-01

The study of marital dissolution (i.e. divorce and separation) and mortality has long been a major topic of interest for social scientists. We conducted meta-analyses and meta-regressions on 625 mortality risk estimates from 104 studies, published between 1955 and 2011, covering 24 countries, and providing data on more than 600 million persons. The mean hazard ratio (HR) for mortality in our meta-analysis was 1.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23-1.37) among HRs adjusted for age and additional covariates. The mean HR was higher for men (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.27-1.49) than for women (HR, 1.22; 95% CI: 1.13-1.32), but the difference between men and women decreases as the mean age increases. Other significant moderators of HR magnitude included sample size; being from Western Europe, Israel, the United Kingdom and former Commonwealth nations; and statistical adjustment for general health status. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality after a cerebrovascular event in age-related macular degeneration patients treated with bevacizumab ocular injections.

PubMed

Hanhart, Joel; Comaneshter, Doron S; Vinker, Shlomo

2018-04-16

To analyse the mortality associated with intravitreal injections of bevacizumab for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in patients previously diagnosed with stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA). We reviewed bevacizumab-treated AMD patients with a diagnosis of stroke or TIA prior to their first bevacizumab injection (n = 948). Those patients, naïve to any anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) at the time of stroke/TIA, were then compared to age- and gender-matched patients who had a stroke/TIA at the same time and had never been exposed to anti-VEGF. Survival analysis was performed using adjusted Cox regression. The main outcome measure was survival. Adjusted variables were age, smoking, alcohol abuse, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity, ischaemic heart disease, congestive heart failure and liver cancer. Age and gender distribution of bevacizumab-treated patients and controls were similar (mean age: 83.4 versus 83.7 years, p = 0.3; 51.7% males versus 52.5% males, p = 0.7). The adjusted mortality in patients who received bevacizumab within 3 months after stroke/TIA was significantly different than in patients non-exposed to bevacizumab (OR = 6.92, 95%, CI 1.88-25.43, p < 0.01). Within 6 months after stroke/TIA, the difference in adjusted mortality showed a strong trend (OR = 2.00, 95%, CI 0.96-4.16, p = 0.064). Within 12 months, it was insignificant (OR = 1.30, 95%, CI 0.75-2.26, p = 0.348). We found increased mortality within three months after a cerebrovascular event in patients treated with bevacizumab for AMD compared to patients for whom there was no record of a prescription to any anti-VEGF agent. © 2018 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Age Variation in the Association Between Obesity and Mortality in Adults.

PubMed

Wang, Zhiqiang; Peng, Yang; Liu, Meina

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the previously reported finding that the association between obesity and mortality strengthens with increasing age. The data were derived from the National Health Interview Survey. Age-specific hazard ratios of mortality for grade 2/3 obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m 2 ), relative to a BMI of 18.5 kg/m 2 to < 25 kg/m 2 , were calculated by using a flexible parametric survival model (240,184 white men) and Cox proportional hazard models (51,697 matched pairs). When the model included interaction terms between obesity and age at the survey, hazard ratios appeared to increase with age if those interaction terms were ignored by fixing age at the survey as a single value. However, when recalculated for adults with various ages at the survey, according to model specifications, hazard ratios were higher for younger adults than for older adults with the same follow-up duration. Based on matched data, hazard ratios were also higher for younger adults (2.14 [95% CI: 1.90-2.40] for those 40-49 years of age) than for older adults (1.22 [95%: 0.91-1.63] for those 90+ years of age). For any given follow-up duration, the association between obesity and mortality weakens with age. The previously reported strengthening of the obesity-mortality association with increasing age was caused by the failure to take all the model specifications into consideration when calculating adjusted hazard ratios. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Use of risk-adjusted CUSUM charts to monitor 30-day mortality in Danish hospitals.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Thomas Bøjer; Ulrichsen, Sinna Pilgaard; Nørgaard, Mette

2018-01-01

Monitoring hospital outcomes and clinical processes as a measure of clinical performance is an integral part of modern health care. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart is a frequently used sequential analysis technique that can be implemented to monitor a wide range of different types of outcomes. The aim of this study was to describe how risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on population-based nationwide medical registers were used to monitor 30-day mortality in Danish hospitals and to give an example on how alarms of increased hospital mortality from the charts can guide further in-depth analyses. We used routinely collected administrative data from the Danish National Patient Registry and the Danish Civil Registration System to create risk-adjusted CUSUM charts. We monitored 30-day mortality after hospital admission with one of 77 selected diagnoses in 24 hospital units in Denmark in 2015. The charts were set to detect a 50% increase in 30-day mortality, and control limits were determined by simulations. Among 1,085,576 hospital admissions, 441,352 admissions had one of the 77 selected diagnoses as their primary diagnosis and were included in the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts. The charts yielded a total of eight alarms of increased mortality. The median of the hospitals' estimated average time to detect a 50% increase in 30-day mortality was 50 days (interquartile interval, 43;54). In the selected example of an alarm, descriptive analyses indicated performance problems with 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery and diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The presented implementation of risk-adjusted CUSUM charts can detect significant increases in 30-day mortality within 2 months, on average, in most Danish hospitals. Together with descriptive analyses, it was possible to use an alarm from a risk-adjusted CUSUM chart to identify potential performance problems.

The association of solar ultraviolet B (UVB) with reducing risk of cancer: multifactorial ecologic analysis of geographic variation in age-adjusted cancer mortality rates.

PubMed

Grant, William B; Garland, Cedric F

2006-01-01

Solar ultraviolet B (UVB) irradiance and vitamin D are associated with reduced cancer mortality rates. However, the previous ecologic study of UVB and cancer mortality rates in the U.S. (Grant, 2002) did not include other risk factors in the analysis. An ecologic study was performed using age-adjusted annual mortality rates for Caucasian Americans for 1950-69 and 1970-94, along with state-averaged values for selected years for alcohol consumption, Hispanic heritage, lung cancer (as a proxy for smoking), poverty, degree of urbanization and UVB in multiple regression analyses. Models were developed that explained much of the variance in cancer mortality rates, with stronger correlations for the earlier period. Fifteen types of cancer were inversely-associated with UVB. In the earlier period, most of the associations of cancer death rates with alcohol consumption (nine), Hispanic heritage (six), the proxy for smoking (ten), urban residence (seven) and poverty (inverse for eight) agreed well with the literature. These results provide additional support for the hypothesis that solar UVB, through photosynthesis of vitamin D, is inversely-associated with cancer mortality rates, and that various other cancer risk-modifying factors do not detract from this link. It is thought that sun avoidance practices after 1980, along with improved cancer treatment, led to reduced associations in the latter period. The results regarding solar UVB should be studied further with additional observational and intervention studies of vitamin D indices and cancer incidence, mortality and survival rates.

Time trends for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions: An age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Braga, Sonia Faria Mendes; de Souza, Mirian Carvalho; Cherchiglia, Mariangela Leal

2017-10-01

In the 1980s, an increase in mortality rates for prostate cancer was observed in North America and developed European countries. In the 1990s, however, mortality rates decreased for these countries, an outcome related to early detection of the disease. Conversely, an upward trend in mortality rates was observed in Brazil. This study describe the trends in mortality for prostate cancer in Brazil and geographic regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast, and Central-West) between 1980 until 2014 and analyze the influence of age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates. This time-series study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects on mortality rates were examined using age-period-cohort (APC) models. Crude and standardized mortality rates showed an upward trend for Brazil and its regions more than 2-fold the last 30 years. Age effects showed an increased risk of death in all regions. Period effects showed a higher risk of death in the finals periods for the North and Northeast. Cohort effects showed risk of death was higher for younger than older generations in Brazil and regions, mainly Northeast (RR Adjusted =3.12, 95% CI 1.29-1.41; RR Adjusted =0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.30, respectively). The increase in prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil and its regions was mainly due to population aging. The differences in mortality rates and APC effects between regions are related to demographic differences and access of health services across the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suicide mortality of young, middle-aged and elderly males and females in Japan for the years 1953-96: time series analysis for the effects of unemployment, female labour force, young and aged population, primary industry and population density.

PubMed

Yamasaki, Akiko; Araki, Shunichi; Sakai, Ryoji; Yokoyama, Kazuhito; Voorhees, A Scott

2008-12-01

Effects of nine social life indicators on age-adjusted and age-specific annual suicide mortality of male and female Japanese population in the years 1953-96 were investigated by multiple regression analysis on time series data. Unemployment rate was significantly related to the age-adjusted mortality in both males and females. Also, female labour force participation was positively related to the male mortality; persons and 65 and above was inversely related to the male mortality. Results on the age-specific mortality indicated that: during the 44 yr, (1) unemployment significantly related with the mortality of young, middle-aged and elderly males and young females; (2) female labour force participation significantly related with the mortality of young and elderly males and young females; aged population significantly related with the mortality of middle-aged and elderly males; (4) young population significantly related with the mortality of young and middle-aged males and females; (5) divorce significantly related with the mortality of middle-aged and elderly males and young males and females; (6) persons employed in primary industries significantly related with the mortality in middle-aged males and young males and females; and (7) population density significantly related with the mortality of middle-aged males and young females.

Treatment of patent ductus arteriosus and neonatal mortality/morbidities: adjustment for treatment selection bias.

PubMed

Mirea, Lucia; Sankaran, Koravangattu; Seshia, Mary; Ohlsson, Arne; Allen, Alexander C; Aziz, Khalid; Lee, Shoo K; Shah, Prakesh S

2012-10-01

To examine the association between treatment for patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) and neonatal outcomes in preterm infants, after adjustment for treatment selection bias. Secondary analyses were conducted using data collected by the Canadian Neonatal Network for neonates born at a gestational age ≤ 32 weeks and admitted to neonatal intensive care units in Canada between 2004 and 2008. Infants who had PDA and survived beyond 72 hours were included in multivariable logistic regression analyses that compared mortality or any severe neonatal morbidity (intraventricular hemorrhage grades ≥ 3, retinopathy of prematurity stages ≥ 3, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, or necrotizing enterocolitis stages ≥ 2) between treatment groups (conservative management, indomethacin only, surgical ligation only, or both indomethacin and ligation). Propensity scores (PS) were estimated for each pair of treatment comparisons, and used in PS-adjusted and PS-matched analyses. Among 3556 eligible infants with a diagnosis of PDA, 577 (16%) were conservatively managed, 2026 (57%) received indomethacin only, 327 (9%) underwent ligation only, and 626 (18%) were treated with both indomethacin and ligation. All multivariable and PS-based analyses detected significantly higher mortality/morbidities for surgically ligated infants, irrespective of prior indomethacin treatment (OR ranged from 1.25-2.35) compared with infants managed conservatively or those who received only indomethacin. No significant differences were detected between infants treated with only indomethacin and those managed conservatively. Surgical ligation of PDA in preterm neonates was associated with increased neonatal mortality/morbidity in all analyses adjusted for measured confounders that attempt to account for treatment selection bias. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Historical Evolution of Old-Age Mortality and New Approaches to Mortality Forecasting

PubMed Central

Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Gavrilova, Natalia S.; Krut'ko, Vyacheslav N.

2017-01-01

Knowledge of future mortality levels and trends is important for actuarial practice but poses a challenge to actuaries and demographers. The Lee-Carter method, currently used for mortality forecasting, is based on the assumption that the historical evolution of mortality at all age groups is driven by one factor only. This approach cannot capture an additive manner of mortality decline observed before the 1960s. To overcome the limitation of the one-factor model of mortality and to determine the true number of factors underlying mortality changes over time, we suggest a new approach to mortality analysis and forecasting based on the method of latent variable analysis. The basic assumption of this approach is that most variation in mortality rates over time is a manifestation of a small number of latent variables, variation in which gives rise to the observed mortality patterns. To extract major components of mortality variation, we apply factor analysis to mortality changes in developed countries over the period of 1900–2014. Factor analysis of time series of age-specific death rates in 12 developed countries (data taken from the Human Mortality Database) identified two factors capable of explaining almost 94 to 99 percent of the variance in the temporal changes of adult death rates at ages 25 to 85 years. Analysis of these two factors reveals that the first factor is a “young-age” or background factor with high factor loadings at ages 30 to 45 years. The second factor can be called an “oldage” or senescent factor because of high factor loadings at ages 65 to 85 years. It was found that the senescent factor was relatively stable in the past but now is rapidly declining for both men and women. The decline of the senescent factor is faster for men, although in most countries, it started almost 30 years later. Factor analysis of time series of age-specific death rates conducted for the oldest-old ages (65 to 100 years) found two factors explaining variation

Effects of education and other socioeconomic factors on middle age mortality in rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Hurt, L S; Ronsmans, C; Saha, S

2004-04-01

To examine socioeconomic gradients in mortality in adult women and their husbands in Bangladesh, paying particular attention to the independent effects of the educational status of each spouse. Historical cohort study. Matlab, a rural area 60 km south east of Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. 14803 married women aged 45 or over and their husbands who were resident in the Matlab Demographic Surveillance area between 30 June 1982 and 31 December 1998. Mortality was lower in women with formal or Koranic education compared with those with none (adjusted rate ratio for formal education = 0.68, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.86; adjusted rate ratio for Koranic schooling = 0.82, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.00). After adjusting for her own education, the husband's level of education or occupation did not have an independent effect on a woman's survival. Men who had attended formal education had lower mortality than those without any education (adjusted rate ratio = 0.84, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.93), but men whose wives had been educated had an additional survival advantage independent of their own education and occupation (adjusted rate ratio = 0.76, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.87). Mortality in both sexes was also significantly associated with marital status and the percentage of surviving children, and in men was associated with the man's occupation, religion, area of residence. The data suggest that socioeconomic status has a strong influence on mortality in adults in Bangladesh. They also illustrate how important the continued promotion of education, particularly for women, may be for the survival of both women and men in rural Bangladesh.

Reexamining the effects of gestational age, fetal growth, and maternal smoking on neonatal mortality

PubMed Central

Ananth, Cande V; Platt, Robert W

2004-01-01

Background Low birth weight (<2,500 g) is a strong predictor of infant mortality. Yet low birth weight, in isolation, is uninformative since it is comprised of two intertwined components: preterm delivery and reduced fetal growth. Through nonparametric logistic regression models, we examine the effects of gestational age, fetal growth, and maternal smoking on neonatal mortality. Methods We derived data on over 10 million singleton live births delivered at ≥ 24 weeks from the 1998–2000 U.S. natality data files. Nonparametric multivariable logistic regression based on generalized additive models was used to examine neonatal mortality (deaths within the first 28 days) in relation to fetal growth (gestational age-specific standardized birth weight), gestational age, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. All analyses were further adjusted for the confounding effects due to maternal age and gravidity. Results The relationship between standardized birth weight and neonatal mortality is nonlinear; mortality is high at low z-score birth weights, drops precipitously with increasing z-score birth weight, and begins to flatten for heavier infants. Gestational age is also strongly associated with mortality, with patterns similar to those of z-score birth weight. Although the direct effect of smoking on neonatal mortality is weak, its effects (on mortality) appear to be largely mediated through reduced fetal growth and, to a lesser extent, through shortened gestation. In fact, the association between smoking and reduced fetal growth gets stronger as pregnancies approach term. Conclusions Our study provides important insights regarding the combined effects of fetal growth, gestational age, and smoking on neonatal mortality. The findings suggest that the effect of maternal smoking on neonatal mortality is largely mediated through reduced fetal growth. PMID:15574192

Contribution of different causes of death to socioeconomic mortality inequality in Korean children aged 1-9: findings from a national mortality follow-up study.

PubMed

Jung-Choi, K; Khang, Y H

2011-02-01

To determine the contribution of different causes of death to absolute socioeconomic inequalities in mortality for the whole population of children of South Korea aged 1-4 years and 5-9 years. A cohort study based on the national birth and death registers of Korea was performed for 3,724,347 children born in 1995-2000 and 657,209 children born in 1995 to analyse mortality among children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years old, respectively. Adjusted mortality, risk difference (RD), slope index of inequality (SII), RR and relative index of inequality were calculated. The contributions of different causes of death to absolute mortality inequalities were calculated as percentages based on RD and SII. Injuries other than from transport accidents contributed the most to total SIIs for male deaths at ages 1-4 (30.0% for father's education). The second largest contribution was from transport accident injuries (19.6% for father's education). For male deaths at ages 5-9, transport accident injuries and other injuries also accounted for most of the educational and occupational differentials in absolute mortality (63.5-90.5%). Patterns in cause-specific contribution to total inequalities in mortality among girls were generally similar to those among boys. The major contributing causes to absolute socioeconomic inequality in all-cause mortality for children aged 1-9 were external. To reduce the absolute magnitude of socioeconomic inequalities in childhood mortality, policy efforts should be directed towards injury prevention and treatment in South Korea.

Old age mortality and macroeconomic cycles.

PubMed

Rolden, Herbert J A; van Bodegom, David; van den Hout, Wilbert B; Westendorp, Rudi G J

2014-01-01

As mortality is more and more concentrated at old age, it becomes critical to identify the determinants of old age mortality. It has counter-intuitively been found that mortality rates at all ages are higher during short-term increases in economic growth. Work-stress is found to be a contributing factor to this association, but cannot explain the association for the older, retired population. Historical figures of gross domestic product (Angus Maddison) were compared with mortality rates (Human Mortality Database) of middle aged (40-44 years) and older people (70-74 years) in 19 developed countries for the period 1950-2008. Regressions were performed on the de-trended data, accounting for autocorrelation and aggregated using random effects models. Most countries show pro-cyclical associations between the economy and mortality, especially with regard to male mortality rates. On average, for every 1% increase in gross domestic product, mortality increases with 0.36% for 70-year-old to 74-year-old men (p<0.001) and 0.38% for 40-year-old to 44-year-old men (p<0.001). The effect for women is 0.18% for 70-year-olds to 74-year-olds (p=0.012) and 0.15% for 40-year-olds to 44-year-olds (p=0.118). In developed countries, mortality rates increase during upward cycles in the economy, and decrease during downward cycles. This effect is similar for the older and middle-aged population. Traditional explanations as work-stress and traffic accidents cannot explain our findings. Lower levels of social support and informal care by the working population during good economic times can play an important role, but this remains to be formally investigated.

The effect of age at migration on cardiovascular mortality among elderly Mexican immigrants

PubMed Central

Colon-Lopez, Vivian; Haan, Mary N.; Aiello, Allison E.; Ghosh, Debashis

2008-01-01

Purpose This study evaluated the influence of age at migration on cardiovascular mortality among older Mexican Americans immigrants. Methods A population-based cohort of Mexican-origin (N=907) participants aged 60+ was followed up to 8 years. The association between migration before age 20 compared to after age 20 and mortality was analyzed using multivariate Cox proportional models. Results Compared to those who migrated later, those who migrated before age 20 had higher incomes and education, were more likely to speak English, were culturally more Anglo, and more likely to be male. Immigration before age 20 was associated with higher rates of cardiovascular mortality (HR=2.39 95%CI [1.16,4.94]) compared to those migrating at older ages, even after adjustment for age, sex, education, income and baseline cardiovascular health. No age at migration differences were observed for non-cardiovascular deaths. Conclusions Mexican Americans who migrated in early life experienced higher cardiovascular disease death rates than later migrants. Early experiences related to migration may have consequences for late-life disease that are not mitigated by the higher socioeconomic status achieved by early migrants. Health or economic selection related to migration may play a role although accounting for health and socioeconomic status actually increased differences between early and later migrants. PMID:18922703

Adjusting the HIV prevalence for non-respondents using mortality rates in an open cohort in northwest Tanzania.

PubMed

Tenu, Filemon; Isingo, Raphael; Zaba, Basia; Urassa, Mark; Todd, Jim

2014-06-01

To estimate HIV prevalence in adults who have not tested for HIV using age-specific mortality rates and to adjust the overall population HIV prevalence to include both tested and untested adults. An open cohort study was established since 1994 with demographic surveillance system (DSS) and five serological surveys conducted. Deaths from Kisesa DSS were used to estimate mortality rates and 95% confidence intervals by HIV status for 3- 5-year periods (1995-1999, 2000-2004, and 2005-2009). Assuming that mortality rates in individuals who did not test for HIV are similar to those in tested individuals, and dependent on age, sex and HIV status and HIV, prevalence was estimated. In 1995-1999, mortality rates (per 1000 person years) were 43.7 (95% CI 35.7-53.4) for HIV positive, 2.6 (95% CI 2.1-3.2) in HIV negative and 16.4 (95% CI 14.4-18.7) in untested. In 2000-2004, mortality rates were 43.3 (95% CI 36.2-51.9) in HIV positive, 3.3 (95% CI 2.8-4.0) in HIV negative and 11.9 (95% CI 10.5-13.6) in untested. In 2005-2009, mortality rates were 30.7 (95% CI 24.8-38.0) in HIV positive, 4.1 (95% CI 3.5-4.9) in HIV negative and 5.7 (95% CI 5.0-6.6) in untested residents. In the three survey periods (1995-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009), the adjusted period prevalences of HIV, including the untested, were 13.5%, 11.6% and 7.1%, compared with the observed prevalence in the tested of 6.0%, 6.8 and 8.0%. The estimated prevalence in the untested was 33.4%, 21.6% and 6.1% in the three survey periods. The simple model was able to estimate HIV prevalence where a DSS provided mortality data for untested residents. © 2014 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trends in AIDS-related mortality among people aged 60 years and older in Brazil: a nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricélia da Silveira; Firmo, Andréa Acioly Maia; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio

2016-12-01

The success of antiretroviral therapy has led to an increase in the number of older people living with human immunodeficiency virus worldwide. This study analyzed the epidemiological patterns and time trends of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) related mortality in people aged 60 and older in Brazil from 2000 to 2011. Secondary mortality data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System was used to perform a nationwide population-based study, which included all AIDS-related deaths among people aged 60 years and older in Brazil from 2000 to 2011. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) were calculated by sex, age group and place of residence. Trends over time were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis. In the 12-year study period, 12,491,280 deaths were recorded in Brazil, of which 144,175 were AIDS-related deaths. A total of 8194 AIDS-related deaths was identified in people aged 60 years and older (0.12% of all deaths and 5.7% of AIDS-related deaths). The overall age-adjusted mortality rate for the period was 4.30 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (95% confidence interval: 3.99-4.64). Males (6.45 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), aged 60-64 years (6.63 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) and residing in the South region (5.94 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) had the highest mortality rates. We observed a significant increase in mortality at the national level and in all the Brazilian regions, with a sharper increase in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged regions of the country, such as the North and Northeast. The findings show that AIDS in older people is an increasing public health problem in Brazil, and reinforce the need to establish public policies for the prevention, early diagnosis and appropriate clinical treatment of this age group.

Effects of education and other socioeconomic factors on middle age mortality in rural Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Hurt, L; Ronsmans, C; Saha, S

2004-01-01

Study objective: To examine socioeconomic gradients in mortality in adult women and their husbands in Bangladesh, paying particular attention to the independent effects of the educational status of each spouse. Design: Historical cohort study. Setting: Matlab, a rural area 60 km south east of Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. Participants: 14 803 married women aged 45 or over and their husbands who were resident in the Matlab Demographic Surveillance area between 30 June 1982 and 31 December 1998. Main results: Mortality was lower in women with formal or Koranic education compared with those with none (adjusted rate ratio for formal education = 0.68, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.86; adjusted rate ratio for Koranic schooling = 0.82, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.00). After adjusting for her own education, the husband's level of education or occupation did not have an independent effect on a woman's survival. Men who had attended formal education had lower mortality than those without any education (adjusted rate ratio = 0.84, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.93), but men whose wives had been educated had an additional survival advantage independent of their own education and occupation (adjusted rate ratio = 0.76, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.87). Mortality in both sexes was also significantly associated with marital status and the percentage of surviving children, and in men was associated with the man's occupation, religion, area of residence. Conclusions: The data suggest that socioeconomic status has a strong influence on mortality in adults in Bangladesh. They also illustrate how important the continued promotion of education, particularly for women, may be for the survival of both women and men in rural Bangladesh. PMID:15026446

The Hispanic Paradox and Predictors of Mortality in an Aging Bi-ethnic Cohort of Mexican Americans and European Americans: The San Antonio Longitudinal Study of Aging

PubMed Central

Espinoza, Sara E.; Jung, Inkyung; Hazuda, Helen

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVES To examine predictors of mortality in aging Mexican Americans (MAs) and European Americans (EAs). DESIGN Longitudinal, observational cohort study. SETTING Socioeconomically diverse neighborhoods in San Antonio, Texas. PARTICIPANTS Three hundred and ninety-four MA and 355 EA community-dwelling older adults (65+) who completed the baseline examination (1992–96) of the San Antonio Longitudinal Study of Aging (SALSA) and for whom vital status was ascertained over an average 8.2 years of follow-up. MEASUREMENTS Ethnic group was classified using a validated algorithm. Hazards ratios (HR) for mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models with age, sex, ethnic group, education, income, frailty, diabetes with and without complications, comorbidity, cognition, depressive symptoms, and body mass index included as predictors in sequential models. RESULTS At baseline, MAs had higher prevalence of diabetes and frailty and lower socioeconomic status (SES) compared to EAs. The age- and sex-adjusted ethnic HR (MA vs. EA) for mortality was 1.54 (95% CI: 1.17–2.03). After adjusting for SES, the ethnic HR was no longer significant (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 0.83–1.61). In the final model, comorbidity, diabetes with complications, depressive symptoms, and cognitive impairment were significant independent risk factors for mortality. CONCLUSION Contrary to the Hispanic paradox, MAs were at increased risk of mortality. Moreover, this ethnic disparity was largely explained by SES differences. Significant independent predictors of mortality, regardless of ethnic group, included diabetes with complications, comorbidity, depressive symptoms and cognitive impairment. Mortality reduction in older MAs requires attention to both socioeconomic disparities and disease factors. PMID:24000922

Austerity and old-age mortality in England: a longitudinal cross-local area analysis, 2007-2013.

PubMed

Loopstra, Rachel; McKee, Martin; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Taylor-Robinson, David; Barr, Ben; Stuckler, David

2016-03-01

There has been significant concern that austerity measures have negatively impacted health in the UK. We examined whether budgetary reductions in Pension Credit and social care have been associated with recent rises in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over. Cross-local authority longitudinal study. Three hundred and twenty-four lower tier local authorities in England. Annual percentage changes in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years or over. Between 2007 and 2013, each 1% decline in Pension Credit spending (support for low income pensioners) per beneficiary was associated with an increase in 0.68% in old-age mortality (95% CI: 0.41 to 0.95). Each reduction in the number of beneficiaries per 1000 pensioners was associated with an increase in 0.20% (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.24). Each 1% decline in social care spending was associated with a significant rise in old-age mortality (0.08%, 95% CI: 0.0006-0.12) but not after adjusting for Pension Credit spending. Similar patterns were seen in both men and women. Weaker associations observed for those aged 75 to 84 years, and none among those 65 to 74 years. Categories of service expenditure not expected to affect old-age mortality, such as transportation, showed no association. Rising mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over were linked to reductions in spending on income support for poor pensioners and social care. Findings suggest austerity measures in England have affected vulnerable old-age adults. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Girl-child marriage and its association with morbidity and mortality of children under 5 years of age in a nationally-representative sample of Pakistan.

PubMed

Nasrullah, Muazzam; Zakar, Rubeena; Zakar, Muhammad Zakria; Krämer, Alexander

2014-03-01

To determine the relationship between child marriage (before age 18 years) and morbidity and mortality of children under 5 years of age in Pakistan beyond those attributed to social vulnerabilities. Nationally-representative cross-sectional observational survey data from Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, 2006-2007 was limited to children from the past 5 years, reported by ever-married women aged 15-24 years (n = 2630 births of n = 2138 mothers) to identify differences in infectious diseases in past 2 weeks (diarrhea, acute respiratory infection [ARI], ARI with fever), under 5 years of age and infant mortality, and low birth weight by early (<18) vs adult (≥ 18) age at marriage. Associations between child marriage and mortality and morbidity of children under 5 years of age were assessed by calculating adjusted OR using logistic regression models after controlling for maternal and child demographics. Majority (74.5%) of births were from mothers aged <18 years. Marriage before age 18 years increased the likelihood of recent diarrhea among children born to young mothers (adjusted OR = 1.59; 95% CI: 1.18-2.14). Even though maternal child marriage was associated with infant mortality and mortality of children under 5 years of age in unadjusted models, association was lost in the adjusted models. We did not find a relation between girl-child marriage and low birth weight infants, and ARI. Girl-child marriage increases the likelihood of recent diarrhea among children born to young mothers. Further qualitative and prospective quantitative studies are needed to understand the factors that may drive child morbidity and mortality among those married as children vs adults in Pakistan. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Gaming in risk-adjusted mortality rates: effect of misclassification of risk factors in the benchmarking of cardiac surgery risk-adjusted mortality rates.

PubMed

Siregar, Sabrina; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Versteegh, Michel I M; Noyez, Luc; ter Burg, Willem Jan P P; Bots, Michiel L; van der Graaf, Yolanda; van Herwerden, Lex A

2013-03-01

Upcoding or undercoding of risk factors could affect the benchmarking of risk-adjusted mortality rates. The aim was to investigate the effect of misclassification of risk factors on the benchmarking of mortality rates after cardiac surgery. A prospective cohort was used comprising all adult cardiac surgery patients in all 16 cardiothoracic centers in The Netherlands from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2009. A random effects model, including the logistic European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) was used to benchmark the in-hospital mortality rates. We simulated upcoding and undercoding of 5 selected variables in the patients from 1 center. These patients were selected randomly (nondifferential misclassification) or by the EuroSCORE (differential misclassification). In the random patients, substantial misclassification was required to affect benchmarking: a 1.8-fold increase in prevalence of the 4 risk factors changed an underperforming center into an average performing one. Upcoding of 1 variable required even more. When patients with the greatest EuroSCORE were upcoded (ie, differential misclassification), a 1.1-fold increase was sufficient: moderate left ventricular function from 14.2% to 15.7%, poor left ventricular function from 8.4% to 9.3%, recent myocardial infarction from 7.9% to 8.6%, and extracardiac arteriopathy from 9.0% to 9.8%. Benchmarking using risk-adjusted mortality rates can be manipulated by misclassification of the EuroSCORE risk factors. Misclassification of random patients or of single variables will have little effect. However, limited upcoding of multiple risk factors in high-risk patients can greatly influence benchmarking. To minimize "gaming," the prevalence of all risk factors should be carefully monitored. Copyright © 2013 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Recipient Age and Mortality Risk after Liver Transplantation: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Chen, Hsiu-Pin; Tsai, Yung-Fong; Lin, Jr-Rung; Liu, Fu-Chao; Yu, Huang-Ping

2016-01-01

The aim of the present large population-based cohort study is to explore the risk factors of age-related mortality in liver transplant recipients in Taiwan. Basic information and data on medical comorbidities for 2938 patients who received liver transplants between July 1, 1998, and December 31, 2012, were extracted from the National Health Insurance Research Database on the basis of ICD-9-codes. Mortality risks were analyzed after adjusting for preoperative comorbidities and compared among age cohorts. All patients were followed up until the study endpoint or death. This study finally included 2588 adults and 350 children [2068 (70.4%) male and 870 (29.6%) female patients]. The median age at transplantation was 52 (interquartile range, 43-58) years. Recipients were categorized into the following age cohorts: <20 (n = 350, 11.9%), 20-39 (n = 254, 8.6%), 40-59 (n = 1860, 63.3%), and ≥60 (n = 474, 16.1%) years. In the total population, 428 deaths occurred after liver transplantation, and the median follow-up period was 2.85 years (interquartile range, 1.2-5.5 years). Dialysis patients showed the highest risk of mortality irrespective of age. Further, the risk of death increased with an increase in the age at transplantation. Older liver transplant recipients (≥60 years), especially dialysis patients, have a higher mortality rate, possibly because they have more medical comorbidities. Our findings should make clinicians aware of the need for better risk stratification among elderly liver transplantation candidates.

Meta-analysis of breast cancer mortality benefit and overdiagnosis adjusted for adherence: improving information on the effects of attending screening mammography

PubMed Central

Jacklyn, Gemma; Glasziou, Paul; Macaskill, Petra; Barratt, Alexandra

2016-01-01

Background: Women require information about the impact of regularly attending screening mammography on breast cancer mortality and overdiagnosis to make informed decisions. To provide this information we aimed to meta-analyse randomised controlled trials adjusted for adherence to the trial protocol. Methods: Nine screening mammography trials used in the Independent UK Breast Screening Report were selected. Extending an existing approach to adjust intention-to-treat (ITT) estimates for less than 100% adherence rates, we conducted a random-effects meta-analysis. This produced a combined deattenuated prevented fraction and a combined deattenuated percentage risk of overdiagnosis. Results: In women aged 39–75 years invited to screen, the prevented fraction of breast cancer mortality at 13-year follow-up was 0.22 (95% CI 0.15–0.28) and it increased to 0.30 (95% CI 0.18–0.42) with deattenuation. In women aged 40–69 years invited to screen, the ITT percentage risk of overdiagnosis during the screening period was 19.0% (95% CI 15.2–22.7%), deattenuation increased this to 29.7% (95% CI 17.8–41.5%). Conclusions: Adjustment for nonadherence increased the size of the mortality benefit and risk of overdiagnosis by up to 50%. These estimates are more appropriate when developing quantitative information to support individual decisions about attending screening mammography. PMID:27124337

Methods of adjusting the stable estimates of fertility for the effects of mortality decline.

PubMed

Abou-Gamrah, H

1976-03-01

Summary The paper shows how stable population methods, based on the age structure and the rate of increase, may be used to estimate the demographic measures of a quasi-stable population. After a discussion of known methods for adjusting the stable estimates to allow for the effects of mortality decline two new methods are presented, the application of which requires less information. The first method does not need any supplementary information, and the second method requires an estimate of the difference between the last two five-year intercensal rates of increase, i.e. five times the annual change of the rate of increase during the last ten years. For these new methods we do not need to know the onset year of mortality decline as in the Coale-Demeny method, or a long series of rates of increase as in Zachariah's method.

Age, period and cohort effects on suicide mortality in Russia, 1956-2005.

PubMed

Jukkala, Tanya; Stickley, Andrew; Mäkinen, Ilkka Henrik; Baburin, Aleksei; Sparén, Pär

2017-03-07

Russian suicide mortality rates changed rapidly over the second half of the twentieth century. This study attempts to differentiate between underlying period and cohort effects in relation to the changes in suicide mortality in Russia between 1956 and 2005. Sex- and age-specific suicide mortality data were analyzed using an age-period-cohort (APC) approach. Descriptive analyses and APC modeling with log-linear Poisson regression were performed. Strong period effects were observed for the years during and after Gorbachev's political reforms (including the anti-alcohol campaign) and for those following the break-up of the Soviet Union. After mutual adjustment, the cohort- and period-specific relative risk estimates for suicide revealed differing underlying processes. While the estimated period effects had an overall positive trend, cohort-specific developments indicated a positive trend for the male cohorts born between 1891 and 1931 and for the female cohorts born between 1891 and 1911, but a negative trend for subsequent cohorts. Our results indicate that the specific life experiences of cohorts may be important for variations in suicide mortality across time, in addition to more immediate effects of changes in the social environment.

Difficulties with Regression Analysis of Age-Adjusted Rates.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-01

variables used in those analyses, such as death rates in various states, have been age adjusted, whereas the predictor variables have not been age adjusted...The use of crude state death rates as the outcome variable with crude covariates and age as predictors can avoid the problem, at least under some...should be regressed on age-adjusted exposure Z+B+ Although age-specific death rates , Yas+’ may be available, it is often difficult to obtain age

Exercise capacity and all-cause mortality in male veterans with hypertension aged ≥70 years.

PubMed

Faselis, Charles; Doumas, Michael; Pittaras, Andreas; Narayan, Puneet; Myers, Jonathan; Tsimploulis, Apostolos; Kokkinos, Peter

2014-07-01

Aging, even in otherwise healthy subjects, is associated with declines in muscle mass, strength, and aerobic capacity. Older individuals respond favorably to exercise, suggesting that physical inactivity plays an important role in age-related functional decline. Conversely, physical activity and improved exercise capacity are associated with lower mortality risk in hypertensive individuals. However, the effect of exercise capacity in older hypertensive individuals has not been investigated extensively. A total of 2153 men with hypertension, aged ≥70 years (mean, 75 ± 4) from the Washington, DC, and Palo Alto Veterans Affairs Medical Centers, underwent routine exercise tolerance testing. Peak workload was estimated in metabolic equivalents (METs). Fitness categories were established based on peak METs achieved, adjusted for age: very-low-fit, 2.0 to 4.0 METs (n=386); low-fit, 4.1 to 6.0 METs (n=1058); moderate-fit, 6.1 to 8.0 METs (n=495); high-fit >8.0 METs (n=214). Cox proportional hazard models were applied after adjusting for age, body mass index, race, cardiovascular disease, cardiovascular medications, and risk factors. All-cause mortality was quantified during a mean follow-up period of 9.0 ± 5.5 years. There were a total of 1039 deaths or 51.2 deaths per 1000 person-years of follow-up. Mortality risk was 11% lower (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.93; P<0.001) for every 1-MET increase in exercise capacity. When compared with those achieving ≤4.0 METs, mortality risk was 18% lower (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.95; P=0.011) for the low-fit, 36% for the moderate-fit (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.78; P<0.001), and 48% for the high-fit individuals (hazard ratio, 0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.39-0.69; P<0.001). These findings suggest that exercise capacity is associated with lower mortality risk in elderly men with hypertension. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Distinct Age and Self-Rated Health Crossover Mortality Effects for African Americans: Evidence from a National Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Roth, David L.; Skarupski, Kimberly A.; Crews, Deidra C.; Howard, Virginia J.; Locher, Julie L.

2016-01-01

The predictive effects of age and self-rated health (SRH) on all-cause mortality are known to differ across race and ethnic groups. African American adults have higher mortality rates than Whites at younger ages, but this mortality disparity diminishes with advancing age and may “crossover” at about 75 to 80 years of age, when African Americans may show lower mortality rates. This pattern of findings reflects a lower overall association between age and mortality for African Americans than for Whites, and health-related mechanisms are typically cited as the reason for this age-based crossover mortality effect. However, a lower association between poor SRH and mortality has also been found for African Americans than for Whites, and it is not known if the reduced age and SRH associations with mortality for African Americans reflect independent or overlapping mechanisms. This study examined these two mortality predictors simultaneously in a large epidemiological study of 12,181 African Americans and 17,436 Whites. Participants were 45 or more years of age when they enrolled in the national REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study between 2003 and 2007. Consistent with previous studies, African Americans had poorer SRH than Whites even after adjusting for demographic and health history covariates. Survival analysis models indicated statistically significant and independent race*age, race*SRH, and age*SRH interaction effects on all-cause mortality over an average 9-year follow-up period. Advanced age and poorer SRH were both weaker mortality risk factors for African Americans than for Whites. These two effects were distinct and presumably tapped different causal mechanisms. This calls into question the health-related explanation for the age-based mortality crossover effect and suggests that other mechanisms, including behavioral, social, and cultural factors, should be considered in efforts to better understand the age-based mortality

Distinct age and self-rated health crossover mortality effects for African Americans: Evidence from a national cohort study.

PubMed

Roth, David L; Skarupski, Kimberly A; Crews, Deidra C; Howard, Virginia J; Locher, Julie L

2016-05-01

The predictive effects of age and self-rated health (SRH) on all-cause mortality are known to differ across race and ethnic groups. African American adults have higher mortality rates than Whites at younger ages, but this mortality disparity diminishes with advancing age and may "crossover" at about 75-80 years of age, when African Americans may show lower mortality rates. This pattern of findings reflects a lower overall association between age and mortality for African Americans than for Whites, and health-related mechanisms are typically cited as the reason for this age-based crossover mortality effect. However, a lower association between poor SRH and mortality has also been found for African Americans than for Whites, and it is not known if the reduced age and SRH associations with mortality for African Americans reflect independent or overlapping mechanisms. This study examined these two mortality predictors simultaneously in a large epidemiological study of 12,181 African Americans and 17,436 Whites. Participants were 45 or more years of age when they enrolled in the national REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study between 2003 and 2007. Consistent with previous studies, African Americans had poorer SRH than Whites even after adjusting for demographic and health history covariates. Survival analysis models indicated statistically significant and independent race*age, race*SRH, and age*SRH interaction effects on all-cause mortality over an average 9-year follow-up period. Advanced age and poorer SRH were both weaker mortality risk factors for African Americans than for Whites. These two effects were distinct and presumably tapped different causal mechanisms. This calls into question the health-related explanation for the age-based mortality crossover effect and suggests that other mechanisms, including behavioral, social, and cultural factors, should be considered in efforts to better understand the age-based mortality

Austerity and old-age mortality in England: a longitudinal cross-local area analysis, 2007–2013

PubMed Central

McKee, Martin; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Taylor-Robinson, David; Barr, Ben; Stuckler, David

2016-01-01

Objective There has been significant concern that austerity measures have negatively impacted health in the UK. We examined whether budgetary reductions in Pension Credit and social care have been associated with recent rises in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over. Design Cross-local authority longitudinal study. Setting Three hundred and twenty-four lower tier local authorities in England. Main outcome measure Annual percentage changes in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years or over. Results Between 2007 and 2013, each 1% decline in Pension Credit spending (support for low income pensioners) per beneficiary was associated with an increase in 0.68% in old-age mortality (95% CI: 0.41 to 0.95). Each reduction in the number of beneficiaries per 1000 pensioners was associated with an increase in 0.20% (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.24). Each 1% decline in social care spending was associated with a significant rise in old-age mortality (0.08%, 95% CI: 0.0006–0.12) but not after adjusting for Pension Credit spending. Similar patterns were seen in both men and women. Weaker associations observed for those aged 75 to 84 years, and none among those 65 to 74 years. Categories of service expenditure not expected to affect old-age mortality, such as transportation, showed no association. Conclusions Rising mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over were linked to reductions in spending on income support for poor pensioners and social care. Findings suggest austerity measures in England have affected vulnerable old-age adults. PMID:26980412

The effect of gender, age, and symptom severity in late-life depression on the risk of all-cause mortality: The Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging

PubMed Central

Diniz, Breno S.; Reynolds, Charles F.; Butters, Meryl A.; Dew, Mary Amanda; Firmo, Josélia O. A.; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda; Castro-Costa, Erico

2014-01-01

Background Increased mortality risk and its moderators is an important, but still under recognized, negative outcome of Late-Life Depression (LLD). Therefore, we aimed to evaluate whether LLD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in a population-based study with over ten years of follow-up, and addressed the moderating effect of gender and symptom severity on mortality risk. Methods This analysis used data from the Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging. The study population comprised 1.508 (86.5%) of all eligible 1.742 elderly residents. Depressive symptoms were annually evaluated by the GHQ-12, with scores of 5 or higher indicating clinically significant depression. From 1997 to 2007, 441 participants died during 10,648 person-years of follow-up. We estimated the hazard ratio for mortality risk by Cox regression analyses. Results Depressive symptoms were a risk factor for all-cause mortality after adjusting for confounding lifestyle and clinical factors (adjusted HR=1.24 CI95% [1.00–1.55], p=0.05). Mortality risk was significantly elevated in men (adjusted HR=1.45 CI95% [1.01 – 2.07], p=0.04), but not in women (adjusted HR=1.13 CI95% [0.84 – 1.48], p=0.15). We observed a significant interaction between gender and depressive symptoms on mortality risk ((HR= 1.72 CI95% [1.18 – 2.49], p=0.004). Conclusion The present study provides evidence that LLD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in the elderly, especially in men. The prevention and adequate treatment of LLD may help to reduce premature disability and death among elders with depressive symptoms. PMID:24353128

Aortic pulse wave velocity predicts cardiovascular mortality in middle-aged and elderly Japanese men.

PubMed

Inoue, Noriko; Maeda, Ryo; Kawakami, Hideshi; Shokawa, Tomoki; Yamamoto, Hideya; Ito, Chikako; Sasaki, Hideo

2009-03-01

Aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) is widely used as a noninvasive index of arterial stiffness and was used in the present study to investigate the relationship between PWV and cardiovascular mortality in the middle-aged and elderly Japanese population using a longitudinal study design. From 1988 to 2003, a total of 3,960 men (50-69 years old at baseline) who underwent medical check-ups and measurement of PWV, which was standardized for diastolic blood pressure, were recruited and divided into 4 groups according to the PWV values. The average follow-up period was 8.2 years. Mortality from all-causes and from cardiovascular disease significantly increased as PWV increased in the entire follow-up period. Multivariate-adjusted relative risks of all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality for the highest quartile of PWV (>9.0 m/s) were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97-1.68) and 1.83 (95%CI 1.02-3.29), respectively, compared with the lowest quartile (<7.5 m/s). An increased PWV can predict cardiovascular mortality in middle-aged and elderly Japanese men.

Age and mortality after injury: is the association linear?

PubMed

Friese, R S; Wynne, J; Joseph, B; Hashmi, A; Diven, C; Pandit, V; O'Keeffe, T; Zangbar, B; Kulvatunyou, N; Rhee, P

2014-10-01

Multiple studies have demonstrated a linear association between advancing age and mortality after injury. An inflection point, or an age at which outcomes begin to differ, has not been previously described. We hypothesized that the relationship between age and mortality after injury is non-linear and an inflection point exists. We performed a retrospective cohort analysis at our urban level I center from 2007 through 2009. All patients aged 65 years and older with the admission diagnosis of injury were included. Non-parametric logistic regression was used to identify the functional form between mortality and age. Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to explore the association between age and mortality. Age 65 years was used as the reference. Significance was defined as p < 0.05. A total of 1,107 patients were included in the analysis. One-third required intensive care unit (ICU) admission and 48 % had traumatic brain injury. 229 patients (20.6 %) were 84 years of age or older. The overall mortality was 7.2 %. Our model indicates that mortality is a quadratic function of age. After controlling for confounders, age is associated with mortality with a regression coefficient of 1.08 for the linear term (p = 0.02) and a regression coefficient of -0.006 for the quadratic term (p = 0.03). The model identified 84.4 years of age as the inflection point at which mortality rates begin to decline. The risk of death after injury varies linearly with age until 84 years. After 84 years of age, the mortality rates decline. These findings may reflect the varying severity of comorbidities and differences in baseline functional status in elderly trauma patients. Specifically, a proportion of our injured patient population less than 84 years old may be more frail, contributing to increased mortality after trauma, whereas a larger proportion of our injured patients over 84 years old, by virtue of reaching this advanced age, may, in fact, be less frail

Bicarbonate Concentration, Acid-Base Status, and Mortality in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study.

PubMed

Raphael, Kalani L; Murphy, Rachel A; Shlipak, Michael G; Satterfield, Suzanne; Huston, Hunter K; Sebastian, Anthony; Sellmeyer, Deborah E; Patel, Kushang V; Newman, Anne B; Sarnak, Mark J; Ix, Joachim H; Fried, Linda F

2016-02-05

Low serum bicarbonate associates with mortality in CKD. This study investigated the associations of bicarbonate and acid-base status with mortality in healthy older individuals. We analyzed data from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study, a prospective study of well functioning black and white adults ages 70-79 years old from 1997. Participants with arterialized venous blood gas measurements (n=2287) were grouped into <23.0 mEq/L (low), 23.0-27.9 mEq/L (reference group), and ≥28.0 mEq/L (high) bicarbonate categories and according to acid-base status. Survival data were collected through February of 2014. Mortality hazard ratios (HRs; 95% confidence intervals [95% CIs]) in the low and high bicarbonate groups compared with the reference group were determined using Cox models adjusted for demographics, eGFR, albuminuria, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, smoking, and systemic pH. Similarly adjusted Cox models were performed according to acid-base status. The mean age was 76 years, 51% were women, and 38% were black. Mean pH was 7.41, mean bicarbonate was 25.1 mEq/L, 11% had low bicarbonate, and 10% had high bicarbonate. Mean eGFR was 82.1 ml/min per 1.73 m(2), and 12% had CKD. Over a mean follow-up of 10.3 years, 1326 (58%) participants died. Compared with the reference group, the mortality HRs were 1.24 (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.49) in the low bicarbonate and 1.03 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.26) in the high bicarbonate categories. Compared with the normal acid-base group, the mortality HRs were 1.17 (95% CI, 0.94 to 1.47) for metabolic acidosis, 1.21 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.46) for respiratory alkalosis, and 1.35 (95% CI, 1.08 to 1.69) for metabolic alkalosis categories. Respiratory acidosis did not associate with mortality. In generally healthy older individuals, low serum bicarbonate associated with higher mortality independent of systemic pH and potential confounders. This association seemed to be present regardless of whether the cause of low bicarbonate was metabolic

Bicarbonate Concentration, Acid-Base Status, and Mortality in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

PubMed Central

Murphy, Rachel A.; Shlipak, Michael G.; Satterfield, Suzanne; Huston, Hunter K.; Sebastian, Anthony; Sellmeyer, Deborah E.; Patel, Kushang V.; Newman, Anne B.; Sarnak, Mark J.; Ix, Joachim H.; Fried, Linda F.

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Low serum bicarbonate associates with mortality in CKD. This study investigated the associations of bicarbonate and acid-base status with mortality in healthy older individuals. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We analyzed data from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study, a prospective study of well functioning black and white adults ages 70–79 years old from 1997. Participants with arterialized venous blood gas measurements (n=2287) were grouped into <23.0 mEq/L (low), 23.0–27.9 mEq/L (reference group), and ≥28.0 mEq/L (high) bicarbonate categories and according to acid-base status. Survival data were collected through February of 2014. Mortality hazard ratios (HRs; 95% confidence intervals [95% CIs]) in the low and high bicarbonate groups compared with the reference group were determined using Cox models adjusted for demographics, eGFR, albuminuria, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, smoking, and systemic pH. Similarly adjusted Cox models were performed according to acid-base status. Results The mean age was 76 years, 51% were women, and 38% were black. Mean pH was 7.41, mean bicarbonate was 25.1 mEq/L, 11% had low bicarbonate, and 10% had high bicarbonate. Mean eGFR was 82.1 ml/min per 1.73 m2, and 12% had CKD. Over a mean follow-up of 10.3 years, 1326 (58%) participants died. Compared with the reference group, the mortality HRs were 1.24 (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.49) in the low bicarbonate and 1.03 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.26) in the high bicarbonate categories. Compared with the normal acid-base group, the mortality HRs were 1.17 (95% CI, 0.94 to 1.47) for metabolic acidosis, 1.21 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.46) for respiratory alkalosis, and 1.35 (95% CI, 1.08 to 1.69) for metabolic alkalosis categories. Respiratory acidosis did not associate with mortality. Conclusions In generally healthy older individuals, low serum bicarbonate associated with higher mortality independent of systemic pH and potential confounders. This

[Gender and age dependent mortality from nervous diseases in Azerbaijan].

PubMed

Mamedbeyli, A K

2015-01-01

To assess age- and sex-related changes in the mortality from nervous diseases at the population level. Methods of descriptive statistics and analysis of qualitative traits were applied. We analyzed 13580 medical certificates of cause of death from nervous diseases (all classes of ICD-10). The mortality rate varied with age, the main trend of which was the dynamic growth. Age-specific mortality rates for men and women differed from each other: in most ages (20-24, 30-34, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 65-69), the likelihood of mortality was higher in men, and at the age of 5-9, 15-19, 60-64, 70 and more years in women. After the standardization of gender differences by age, the mortality risk of nervous illnesses disappeared (146.74 and 144.16 per 100 thousand for men and women, respectively).  There were significant differences in the proportion of nervous diseases of all-cause mortality among the population in the groups stratified by age and sex. It is believed that situational factors is a cause of actual prevailing of gender age- and sex-related mortality risks. Gender features of age-related risk of mortality from nervous diseases are characterized by the multidirectional dynamics of likelihood of mortality and specific weight of nervous diseases among all causes of mortality. The actual gender features of age-related risk of mortality from nervous diseases are generally caused by situational factors (different age structure and unequal level of the general mortality among male and female population) which disappear after standardization.

Mortality Associated with Severe Sepsis Among Age-Similar Women with and without Pregnancy-Associated Hospitalization in Texas: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Oud, Lavi

2016-06-10

BACKGROUND The reported mortality among women with pregnancy-associated severe sepsis (PASS) has been considerably lower than among severely septic patients in the general population, with the difference being attributed to the younger age and lack of chronic illness among the women with PASS. However, no comparative studies were reported to date between patients with PASS and age-similar women with severe sepsis not associated with pregnancy (NPSS). MATERIAL AND METHODS We used the Texas Inpatient Public Use Data File to compare the crude and adjusted hospital mortality between women with severe sepsis, aged 20-34 years, with and without pregnancy-associated hospitalizations during 2001-2010, following exclusion of those with reported chronic comorbidities, as well as alcohol and drug abuse. RESULTS Crude hospital mortality among PASS vs. NPSS hospitalizations was lower for the whole cohort (6.7% vs. 14.1% [p<0.0001]) and those with ≥3 organ failures (17.6% vs. 33.2% [p=0.0100]). Adjusted PASS mortality (odds ratio [95% CI]) was 0.57 (0.38-0.86) [p=0.0070]. CONCLUSIONS Hospital mortality was unexpectedly markedly and consistently lower among women with severe sepsis associated with pregnancy, as compared with contemporaneous, age-similar women with severe sepsis not associated with pregnancy, without reported chronic comorbidities. Further studies are warranted to examine the sources of the observed differences and to corroborate our findings.

The Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study Risk-Adjusted Mortality Model: Results of a Statewide Benchmarking Program

PubMed Central

WIEBE, DOUGLAS J.; HOLENA, DANIEL N.; DELGADO, M. KIT; McWILLIAMS, NATHAN; ALTENBURG, JULIET; CARR, BRENDAN G.

2018-01-01

Trauma centers need objective feedback on performance to inform quality improvement efforts. The Trauma Quality Improvement Program recently published recommended methodology for case mix adjustment and benchmarking performance. We tested the feasibility of applying this methodology to develop risk-adjusted mortality models for a statewide trauma system. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥16 years old at Pennsylvania trauma centers from 2011 to 2013 (n = 100,278). Our main outcome measure was observed-to-expected mortality ratios (overall and within blunt, penetrating, multisystem, isolated head, and geriatric subgroups). Patient demographic variables, physiology, mechanism of injury, transfer status, injury severity, and pre-existing conditions were included as predictor variables. The statistical model had excellent discrimination (area under the curve = 0.94). Funnel plots of observed-to-expected identified five centers with lower than expected mortality and two centers with higher than expected mortality. No centers were outliers for management of penetrating trauma, but five centers had lower and three had higher than expected mortality for blunt trauma. It is feasible to use Trauma Quality Improvement Program methodology to develop risk-adjusted models for statewide trauma systems. Even with smaller numbers of trauma centers that are available in national datasets, it is possible to identify high and low outliers in performance. PMID:28541852

The Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study Risk-Adjusted Mortality Model: Results of a Statewide Benchmarking Program.

PubMed

Wiebe, Douglas J; Holena, Daniel N; Delgado, M Kit; McWilliams, Nathan; Altenburg, Juliet; Carr, Brendan G

2017-05-01

Trauma centers need objective feedback on performance to inform quality improvement efforts. The Trauma Quality Improvement Program recently published recommended methodology for case mix adjustment and benchmarking performance. We tested the feasibility of applying this methodology to develop risk-adjusted mortality models for a statewide trauma system. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥16 years old at Pennsylvania trauma centers from 2011 to 2013 (n = 100,278). Our main outcome measure was observed-to-expected mortality ratios (overall and within blunt, penetrating, multisystem, isolated head, and geriatric subgroups). Patient demographic variables, physiology, mechanism of injury, transfer status, injury severity, and pre-existing conditions were included as predictor variables. The statistical model had excellent discrimination (area under the curve = 0.94). Funnel plots of observed-to-expected identified five centers with lower than expected mortality and two centers with higher than expected mortality. No centers were outliers for management of penetrating trauma, but five centers had lower and three had higher than expected mortality for blunt trauma. It is feasible to use Trauma Quality Improvement Program methodology to develop risk-adjusted models for statewide trauma systems. Even with smaller numbers of trauma centers that are available in national datasets, it is possible to identify high and low outliers in performance.

Mortality rates among Arab Americans in Michigan.

PubMed

Dallo, Florence J; Schwartz, Kendra; Ruterbusch, Julie J; Booza, Jason; Williams, David R

2012-04-01

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate age-specific and age-adjusted cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans; and (2) compare these rates with those for blacks and whites. Mortality rates were estimated using Michigan death certificate data, an Arab surname and first name list, and 2000 U.S. Census data. Age-specific rates, age-adjusted all-cause and cause-specific rates were calculated. Arab Americans (75+) had higher mortality rates than whites and blacks. Among men, all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans were in the range of whites and blacks. However, Arab American men had lower mortality rates from cancer and chronic lower respiratory disease compared to both whites and blacks. Among women, Arab Americans had lower mortality rates from heart disease, cancer, stroke, and diabetes than whites and blacks. Arab Americans are growing in number. Future study should focus on designing rigorous separate analyses for this population.

Mortality Rates Among Arab Americans in Michigan

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Kendra; Ruterbusch, Julie J.; Booza, Jason; Williams, David R.

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate age-specific and age-adjusted cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans; and (2) compare these rates with those for blacks and whites. Mortality rates were estimated using Michigan death certificate data, an Arab surname and first name list, and 2000 U.S. Census data. Age-specific rates, age-adjusted all-cause and cause-specific rates were calculated. Arab Americans (75+) had higher mortality rates than whites and blacks. Among men, all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans were in the range of whites and blacks. However, Arab American men had lower mortality rates from cancer and chronic lower respiratory disease compared to both whites and blacks. Among women, Arab Americans had lower mortality rates from heart disease, cancer, stroke, and diabetes than whites and blacks. Arab Americans are growing in number. Future study should focus on designing rigorous separate analyses for this population. PMID:21318619

Recent age- and gender-specific trends in mortality during stroke hospitalization in the United States.

PubMed

Ovbiagele, Bruce; Markovic, Daniela; Towfighi, Amytis

2011-10-01

Advancements in diagnosis and treatment have resulted in better clinical outcomes after stroke; however, the influence of age and gender on recent trends in death during stroke hospitalization has not been specifically investigated. We assessed the impact of age and gender on nationwide patterns of in-hospital mortality after stroke. Data were obtained from all US states that contributed to the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. All patients admitted to hospitals between 1997 and 1998 (n=1 351 293) and 2005 and 2006 (n=1 202 449), with a discharge diagnosis of stroke (identified by the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision procedure codes), were included. Time trends for in-hospital mortality after stroke were evaluated by gender and age group based on 10-year age increments (<55, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, >84) using multivariable logistic regression. Between 1997 and 2006, in-hospital mortality rates decreased across time in all sub-groups (all P<0·01), except in men >84 years. In unadjusted analysis, men aged >84 years in 1997-1998 had poorer mortality outcomes than similarly aged women (odds ratio 0·93, 95% confidence interval=0·88-0·98). This disparity worsened by 2005-2006 (odds ratio 0·88, 95% confidence interval=0·84-0·93). After adjusting for confounders, compared with similarly aged women, the mortality outcomes among men aged >84 years were poorer in 1997-1998 (odds ratio 0·97, 95% confidence interval=0·92-1·02) and were poorer in 2005-2006 (odds ratio 0·92, 95% confidence interval=0·87-0·96), P=0·04, for gender × time trend. Over the last decade, in-hospital mortality rates after stroke in the United States have declined for every age/gender group, except men aged >84 years. Given the rapidly ageing US population, avenues for boosting in-hospital survival among very elderly men with stroke need to be explored. © 2011 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2011 World Stroke Organization.

A new casemix adjustment index for hospital mortality among patients with congestive heart failure.

PubMed

Polanczyk, C A; Rohde, L E; Philbin, E A; Di Salvo, T G

1998-10-01

Comparative analysis of hospital outcomes requires reliable adjustment for casemix. Although congestive heart failure is one of the most common indications for hospitalization, congestive heart failure casemix adjustment has not been widely studied. The purposes of this study were (1) to describe and validate a new congestive heart failure-specific casemix adjustment index to predict in-hospital mortality and (2) to compare its performance to the Charlson comorbidity index. Data from all 4,608 admissions to the Massachusetts General Hospital from January 1990 to July 1996 with a principal ICD-9-CM discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure were evaluated. Massachusetts General Hospital patients were randomly divided in a derivation and a validation set. By logistic regression, odds ratios for in-hospital death were computed and weights were assigned to construct a new predictive index in the derivation set. The performance of the index was tested in an internal Massachusetts General Hospital validation set and in a non-Massachusetts General Hospital external validation set incorporating data from all 1995 New York state hospital discharges with a primary discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure. Overall in-hospital mortality was 6.4%. Based on the new index, patients were assigned to six categories with incrementally increasing hospital mortality rates ranging from 0.5% to 31%. By logistic regression, "c" statistics of the congestive heart failure-specific index (0.83 and 0.78, derivation and validation set) were significantly superior to the Charlson index (0.66). Similar incrementally increasing hospital mortality rates were observed in the New York database with the congestive heart failure-specific index ("c" statistics 0.75). In an administrative database, this congestive heart failure-specific index may be a more adequate casemix adjustment tool to predict hospital mortality in patients hospitalized for congestive heart failure.

Patterns of lung cancer mortality in 23 countries: application of the age-period-cohort model.

PubMed

Liaw, Yung-Po; Huang, Yi-Chia; Lien, Guang-Wen

2005-03-05

Smoking habits do not seem to be the main explanation of the epidemiological characteristics of female lung cancer mortality in Asian countries. However, Asian countries are often excluded from studies of geographical differences in trends for lung cancer mortality. We thus examined lung cancer trends from 1971 to 1995 among men and women for 23 countries, including four in Asia. International and national data were used to analyze lung cancer mortality from 1971 to 1995 in both sexes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were analyzed in five consecutive five-year periods and for each five-year age group in the age range 30 to 79. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the period effect (adjusted for age and cohort effects) for mortality from lung cancer. The sex ratio of the ASMR for lung cancer was lower in Asian countries, while the sex ratio of smoking prevalence was higher in Asian countries. The mean values of the sex ratio of the ASMR from lung cancer in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan for the five 5-year period were 2.10, 2.39, 3.07, and 3.55, respectively. These values not only remained quite constant over each five-year period, but were also lower than seen in the western countries. The period effect, for lung cancer mortality as derived for the 23 countries from the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Period effects for both men and women in 23 countries, as derived using the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Four Asian countries have a relatively low sex ratio in lung cancer mortality and a relatively high sex ratio in smoking prevalence. Factors other than smoking might be important, especially for women in Asian countries.

Patterns of lung cancer mortality in 23 countries: Application of the Age-Period-Cohort model

PubMed Central

Liaw, Yung-Po; Huang, Yi-Chia; Lien, Guang-Wen

2005-01-01

Background Smoking habits do not seem to be the main explanation of the epidemiological characteristics of female lung cancer mortality in Asian countries. However, Asian countries are often excluded from studies of geographical differences in trends for lung cancer mortality. We thus examined lung cancer trends from 1971 to 1995 among men and women for 23 countries, including four in Asia. Methods International and national data were used to analyze lung cancer mortality from 1971 to 1995 in both sexes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were analyzed in five consecutive five-year periods and for each five-year age group in the age range 30 to 79. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the period effect (adjusted for age and cohort effects) for mortality from lung cancer. Results The sex ratio of the ASMR for lung cancer was lower in Asian countries, while the sex ratio of smoking prevalence was higher in Asian countries. The mean values of the sex ratio of the ASMR from lung cancer in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan for the five 5-year period were 2.10, 2.39, 3.07, and 3.55, respectively. These values not only remained quite constant over each five-year period, but were also lower than seen in the western countries. The period effect, for lung cancer mortality as derived for the 23 countries from the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Conclusion Period effects for both men and women in 23 countries, as derived using the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Four Asian countries have a relatively low sex ratio in lung cancer mortality and a relatively high sex ratio in smoking prevalence. Factors other than smoking might be important, especially for women in Asian countries. PMID:15748289

Inequality in income and mortality in the United States: analysis of mortality and potential pathways.

PubMed

Kaplan, G A; Pamuk, E R; Lynch, J W; Cohen, R D; Balfour, J L

1996-04-20

To examine the relation between health outcomes and the equality with which income is distributed in the United States. The degree of income inequality, defined as the percentage of total household income received by the less well off 50% of households, and changes in income inequality were calculated for the 50 states in 1980 and 1990. These measures were then examined in relation to all cause mortality adjusted for age for each state, age specific deaths, changes in mortalities, and other health outcomes and potential pathways for 1980, 1990, and 1989-91. Age adjusted mortality from all causes. There was a significant correlation (r = -0.62 [corrected], P < 0.001) between the percentage of total household income received by the less well off 50% in each state and all cause mortality, unaffected by adjustment for state median incomes. Income inequality was also significantly associated with age specific mortalities and rates of low birth weight, homicide, violent crime, work disability, expenditures on medical care and police protection, smoking, and sedentary activity. Rates of unemployment, imprisonment, recipients of income assistance and food stamps, lack of medical insurance, and educational outcomes were also worse as income inequality increased. Income inequality was also associated with mortality trends, and there was a suggestion of an impact of inequality trends on mortality trends. Variations between states in the inequality of the distribution of income are significantly associated with variations between states in a large number of health outcomes and social indicators and with mortality trends. These differences parallel relative investments in human and social capital. Economic policies that influence income and wealth inequality may have an important impact on the health of countries.

Effect of Socioeconomic Status on Mortality after Bacteremia in Working-Age Patients. A Danish Population-Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Koch, Kristoffer; Nørgaard, Mette; Schønheyder, Henrik Carl; Thomsen, Reimar Wernich; Søgaard, Mette

2013-01-01

Objectives To examine the effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on mortality in patients with bacteremia and the underlying factors that may mediate differences in mortality. Methods We conducted a population-based cohort study in two Danish regions. All patients 30 to 65 years of age with first time bacteremia from 2000 through 2008 were identified in a population-based microbiological bacteremia database (n = 8,653). Individual-level data on patients’ SES (educational level and personal income) and comorbid conditions were obtained from public and medical registries. We used Cox regression to examine mortality within 30 days after bacteremia with and without cumulative adjustment for potential mediators. Results Bacteremia patients of low SES were more likely to live alone and be unmarried than patients of high SES. They also had more pre-existing comorbidity, more substance abuse, more Staphylococcus aureus and nosocomial infections, and more admissions to small nonteaching hospitals. Overall, 1,374 patients (15.9%) died within 30 days of follow-up. Patients of low SES had consistently higher mortality after bacteremia than those of high SES crude hazard ratio for low vs. high education, 1.38 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.18–1.61]; crude hazard ratio for low-income vs. high-income tertile, 1.58 [CI, 1.39–1.80]. Adjustment for differences in social support, pre-existing comorbidity, substance abuse, place of acquisition of the infection, and microbial agent substantially attenuated the effect of SES on mortality (adjusted hazard ratio for low vs. high education, 1.15 [95% CI, 0.98–1.36]; adjusted hazard ratio for low-income vs. high-income tertile, 1.29 [CI, 1.12–1.49]). Further adjustment for characteristics of the admitting hospital had minimal effect on observed mortality differences. Conclusions Low SES was strongly associated with increased 30-day mortality after bacteremia. Less social support, more pre-existing comorbidity, more substance

Effect of socioeconomic status on mortality after bacteremia in working-age patients. A Danish population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Koch, Kristoffer; Nørgaard, Mette; Schønheyder, Henrik Carl; Thomsen, Reimar Wernich; Søgaard, Mette

2013-01-01

To examine the effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on mortality in patients with bacteremia and the underlying factors that may mediate differences in mortality. We conducted a population-based cohort study in two Danish regions. All patients 30 to 65 years of age with first time bacteremia from 2000 through 2008 were identified in a population-based microbiological bacteremia database (n = 8,653). Individual-level data on patients' SES (educational level and personal income) and comorbid conditions were obtained from public and medical registries. We used Cox regression to examine mortality within 30 days after bacteremia with and without cumulative adjustment for potential mediators. Bacteremia patients of low SES were more likely to live alone and be unmarried than patients of high SES. They also had more pre-existing comorbidity, more substance abuse, more Staphylococcus aureus and nosocomial infections, and more admissions to small nonteaching hospitals. Overall, 1,374 patients (15.9%) died within 30 days of follow-up. Patients of low SES had consistently higher mortality after bacteremia than those of high SES crude hazard ratio for low vs. high education, 1.38 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.18-1.61]; crude hazard ratio for low-income vs. high-income tertile, 1.58 [CI, 1.39-1.80]. Adjustment for differences in social support, pre-existing comorbidity, substance abuse, place of acquisition of the infection, and microbial agent substantially attenuated the effect of SES on mortality (adjusted hazard ratio for low vs. high education, 1.15 [95% CI, 0.98-1.36]; adjusted hazard ratio for low-income vs. high-income tertile, 1.29 [CI, 1.12-1.49]). Further adjustment for characteristics of the admitting hospital had minimal effect on observed mortality differences. Low SES was strongly associated with increased 30-day mortality after bacteremia. Less social support, more pre-existing comorbidity, more substance abuse, and differences in place of acquisition and

Age dependent mortality in the pilocarpine model of status epilepticus

PubMed Central

Blair, Robert E.; Deshpande, Laxmikant S.; Holbert, William H.; Churn, Severn B.; DeLorenzo, Robert J.

2010-01-01

Status epilepticus (SE) is an acute neurological emergency associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Age has been shown to be a critical factor in determining outcome after SE. Understanding the causes of this increased mortality with aging by developing an animal model to study this condition would play a major role in studying mechanisms to limit the mortality due to SE. Here we employed pilocarpine to induce SE in rats aged between 5 to 28 weeks. Similar to clinical studies in man, we observed that age was a significant predictor of mortality following SE. While no deaths were observed in 5-week old animals, mortality due to SE increased progressively with age and reached 90% in 28-week old animals. There was no correlation between the age of animals and severity of SE. With increasing age mortality occurred earlier after the onset of SE. These results indicate that pilocarpine-induced SE in the rat provides a useful model to study age-dependent SE-induced mortality and indicates the importance of using animal models to elucidate the mechanisms contributing to SE-induced mortality and the development of novel therapeutic interventions to prevent SE-induced death. PMID:19429042

Age-dependent mortality in the pilocarpine model of status epilepticus.

PubMed

Blair, Robert E; Deshpande, Laxmikant S; Holbert, William H; Churn, Severn B; DeLorenzo, Robert J

2009-04-10

Status epilepticus (SE) is an acute neurological emergency associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Age has been shown to be a critical factor in determining outcome after SE. Understanding the causes of this increased mortality with aging by developing an animal model to study this condition would play a major role in studying mechanisms to limit the mortality due to SE. Here we employed pilocarpine to induce SE in rats aged between 5 and 28 weeks. Similar to clinical studies in man, we observed that age was a significant predictor of mortality following SE. While no deaths were observed in 5-week-old animals, mortality due to SE increased progressively with age and reached 90% in 28-week-old animals. There was no correlation between the age of animals and severity of SE. With increasing age mortality occurred earlier after the onset of SE. These results indicate that pilocarpine-induced SE in the rat provides a useful model to study age-dependent SE-induced mortality and indicates the importance of using animal models to elucidate the mechanisms contributing to SE-induced mortality and the development of novel therapeutic interventions to prevent SE-induced death.

Dizziness and death: An imbalance in mortality.

PubMed

Corrales, C Eduardo; Bhattacharyya, Neil

2016-09-01

To determine if dizziness is an independent risk factor for mortality among adults in the United States. Cross-sectional analysis using the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Adult respondents in the 2008 NHIS were evaluated. Demographic information (gender, race, ethnicity, education level), prevalence of dizziness, mortality rates, and leading causes of death (cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, cerebrovascular disease) were collected and analyzed. The association between dizziness and subsequent mortality was determined adjusting for demographic and other disease factors. Among 213.6 ± 3.5 million adult Americans, 23.8 ± 0.7 million reported dizziness in the past 12 months (11.1% ± 0.3%; mean age, 45.9 ± 0.2 years; 51.7% ± 0.5% female). The mortality rate among the group without dizziness in the preceding 12 months was 2.6% ± 0.1%, compared to the dizzy group at 9.0% ± 0.7%. After adjusting for gender and age, there was a statistically significant association between dizziness and mortality (odds ratio [OR]: 2.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.8-2.8). After adjusting for all covariates including age, ethnicity, race, gender, diabetes, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular disease, cancer, and grade level, dizziness remained an independent predictor of increased mortality (adjusted OR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.36-2.18). Approximately 11% of adult Americans reported dizziness or balance problems in the preceding 12 months. Adults with dizziness have a greater mortality rate than nondizzy adults. Even after adjusting for covariates, there was a significant association between dizziness and mortality. Screening for dizziness as a risk factor for mortality may be warranted. 2b Laryngoscope, 126:2134-2136, 2016. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Improving Risk Adjustment for Mortality After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: The UK PRAiS2 Model.

PubMed

Rogers, Libby; Brown, Katherine L; Franklin, Rodney C; Ambler, Gareth; Anderson, David; Barron, David J; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Stickley, John; Tibby, Shane; Tsang, Victor; Utley, Martin; Witter, Thomas; Pagel, Christina

2017-07-01

Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery (PRAiS), a risk model for 30-day mortality after children's heart surgery, has been used by the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit to report expected risk-adjusted survival since 2013. This study aimed to improve the model by incorporating additional comorbidity and diagnostic information. The model development dataset was all procedures performed between 2009 and 2014 in all UK and Ireland congenital cardiac centers. The outcome measure was death within each 30-day surgical episode. Model development followed an iterative process of clinical discussion and development and assessment of models using logistic regression under 25 × 5 cross-validation. Performance was measured using Akaike information criterion, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration. The final model was assessed in an external 2014 to 2015 validation dataset. The development dataset comprised 21,838 30-day surgical episodes, with 539 deaths (mortality, 2.5%). The validation dataset comprised 4,207 episodes, with 97 deaths (mortality, 2.3%). The updated risk model included 15 procedural, 11 diagnostic, and 4 comorbidity groupings, and nonlinear functions of age and weight. Performance under cross-validation was: median AUC of 0.83 (range, 0.82 to 0.83), median calibration slope and intercept of 0.92 (range, 0.64 to 1.25) and -0.23 (range, -1.08 to 0.85) respectively. In the validation dataset, the AUC was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.89), and the calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.18) and 0.11 (95% CI, -0.45 to 0.67), respectively, showing excellent performance. A more sophisticated PRAiS2 risk model for UK use was developed with additional comorbidity and diagnostic information, alongside age and weight as nonlinear variables. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative analysis of old-age mortality estimations in Africa.

PubMed

Bendavid, Eran; Seligman, Benjamin; Kubo, Jessica

2011-01-01

Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data. Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals ((5)q(x)). We then compare our (5)q(x) estimates to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old. We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.64% deceased). WHO and UNPD mortality models match our estimates closely up to age 60 (mean difference in probability of death -1.1%). However, mortality probabilities above age 60 are lower using our estimations than either WHO or UNPD. The mean difference between our sample and the WHO is 5.9% (95% CI 3.8-7.9%) and between our sample is UNPD is 13.5% (95% CI 11.6-15.5%). Regardless of the comparator, the difference in mortality estimations rises monotonically above age 60. Mortality estimations above age 60 in ten African countries exhibit large variations depending on the method of estimation. The observed patterns suggest the possibility that survival in some African countries among adults older than age 60 is better than previously thought. Improving the quality and coverage of vital information in developing countries will become increasingly important with future

Mortality Associated with Severe Sepsis Among Age-Similar Women with and without Pregnancy-Associated Hospitalization in Texas: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Oud, Lavi

2016-01-01

Background The reported mortality among women with pregnancy-associated severe sepsis (PASS) has been considerably lower than among severely septic patients in the general population, with the difference being attributed to the younger age and lack of chronic illness among the women with PASS. However, no comparative studies were reported to date between patients with PASS and age-similar women with severe sepsis not associated with pregnancy (NPSS). Material/Methods We used the Texas Inpatient Public Use Data File to compare the crude and adjusted hospital mortality between women with severe sepsis, aged 20–34 years, with and without pregnancy-associated hospitalizations during 2001–2010, following exclusion of those with reported chronic comorbidities, as well as alcohol and drug abuse. Results Crude hospital mortality among PASS vs. NPSS hospitalizations was lower for the whole cohort (6.7% vs. 14.1% [p<0.0001]) and those with ≥3 organ failures (17.6% vs. 33.2% [p=0.0100]). Adjusted PASS mortality (odds ratio [95% CI]) was 0.57 (0.38–0.86) [p=0.0070]. Conclusions Hospital mortality was unexpectedly markedly and consistently lower among women with severe sepsis associated with pregnancy, as compared with contemporaneous, age-similar women with severe sepsis not associated with pregnancy, without reported chronic comorbidities. Further studies are warranted to examine the sources of the observed differences and to corroborate our findings. PMID:27286326

Size at birth by gestational age and hospital mortality in very preterm infants: results of the area-based ACTION project.

PubMed

Da Frè, M; Polo, A; Di Lallo, D; Piga, S; Gagliardi, L; Carnielli, V; Miniaci, S; Macagno, F; Ravà, L; Ferrante, P; Cuttini, M

2015-01-01

Size at birth is an important predictor of neonatal outcomes, but there are inconsistencies on the definitions and optimal cut-offs. The aim of this study is to compute birth size percentiles for Italian very preterm singleton infants and assess relationship with hospital mortality. Prospective area-based cohort study. All singleton Italian infants with gestational age 22-31 weeks admitted to neonatal care in 6 Italian regions (Friuli Venezia-Giulia, Lombardia, Marche, Tuscany, Lazio and Calabria) (n. 1605). Hospital mortality. Anthropometric reference charts were derived, separately for males and females, using the lambda (λ) mu (μ) and sigma (σ) method (LMS). Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate mortality rates by gestational age and birth weight centile class, adjusting for sex, congenital anomalies and region. At any gestational age, mortality decreased as birth weight centile increased, with lowest values observed between the 50th and the 89th centiles interval. Using the 75th-89th centile class as reference, adjusted mortality odds ratios were 7.94 (95% CI 4.18-15.08) below 10th centile; 3.04 (95% CI 1.63-5.65) between the 10th and 24th; 1.96 (95% CI 1.07-3.62) between the 25th and the 49th; 1.25 (95% CI 0.68-2.30) between the 50(h) and the 74th; and 2.07 (95% CI 1.01-4.25) at the 90th and above. Compared to the reference, we found significantly increasing adjusted risk of death up to the 49th centile, challenging the usual 10th centile criterion as risk indicator. Continuous measures such as the birthweight z-score may be more appropriate to explore the relationship between growth retardation and adverse perinatal outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality Trajectories at Exceptionally High Ages: A Study of Supercentenarians

PubMed Central

Gavrilova, Natalia S.; Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Krut'ko, Vyacheslav N.

2017-01-01

The growing number of persons surviving to age 100 years and beyond raises questions about the shape of mortality trajectories at exceptionally high ages, and this problem may become significant for actuaries in the near future. However, such studies are scarce because of the difficulties in obtaining reliable age estimates at exceptionally high ages. The current view about mortality beyond age 110 years suggests that death rates do not grow with age and are virtually flat. The same assumption is made in the new actuarial VBT tables. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that the mortality of supercentenarians (persons living 110+ years) is constant and does not grow with age, and we analyze mortality trajectories at these exceptionally high ages. Death records of supercentenarians were taken from the International Database on Longevity (IDL). All ages of supercentenarians in the database were subjected to careful validation. We used IDL records for persons belonging to extinct birth cohorts (born before 1895) since the last deaths in IDL were observed in 2007. We also compared our results based on IDL data with a more contemporary database maintained by the Gerontology Research Group (GRG). First we attempted to replicate findings by Gampe (2010), who analyzed IDL data and came to the conclusion that “human mortality after age 110 is flat.” We split IDL data into two groups: cohorts born before 1885 and cohorts born in 1885 and later. Hazard rate estimates were conducted using the standard procedure available in Stata software. We found that mortality in both groups grows with age, although in older cohorts, growth was slower compared with more recent cohorts and not statistically significant. Mortality analysis of more numerous 1884–1894 birth cohort with the Akaike goodness-of-fit criterion showed better fit for the Gompertz model than for the exponential model (flat mortality). Mortality analyses with GRG data produced similar results. The remaining life

Mortality Trajectories at Exceptionally High Ages: A Study of Supercentenarians.

PubMed

Gavrilova, Natalia S; Gavrilov, Leonid A; Krut'ko, Vyacheslav N

2017-01-01

The growing number of persons surviving to age 100 years and beyond raises questions about the shape of mortality trajectories at exceptionally high ages, and this problem may become significant for actuaries in the near future. However, such studies are scarce because of the difficulties in obtaining reliable age estimates at exceptionally high ages. The current view about mortality beyond age 110 years suggests that death rates do not grow with age and are virtually flat. The same assumption is made in the new actuarial VBT tables. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that the mortality of supercentenarians (persons living 110+ years) is constant and does not grow with age, and we analyze mortality trajectories at these exceptionally high ages. Death records of supercentenarians were taken from the International Database on Longevity (IDL). All ages of supercentenarians in the database were subjected to careful validation. We used IDL records for persons belonging to extinct birth cohorts (born before 1895) since the last deaths in IDL were observed in 2007. We also compared our results based on IDL data with a more contemporary database maintained by the Gerontology Research Group (GRG). First we attempted to replicate findings by Gampe (2010), who analyzed IDL data and came to the conclusion that "human mortality after age 110 is flat." We split IDL data into two groups: cohorts born before 1885 and cohorts born in 1885 and later. Hazard rate estimates were conducted using the standard procedure available in Stata software. We found that mortality in both groups grows with age, although in older cohorts, growth was slower compared with more recent cohorts and not statistically significant. Mortality analysis of more numerous 1884-1894 birth cohort with the Akaike goodness-of-fit criterion showed better fit for the Gompertz model than for the exponential model (flat mortality). Mortality analyses with GRG data produced similar results. The remaining life

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

PubMed

2017-09-16

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age

Mortality Differences Between Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage: A Risk-Adjusted Assessment Using Claims Data

PubMed Central

Beveridge, Roy A.; Mendes, Sean M.; Caplan, Arial; Rogstad, Teresa L.; Olson, Vanessa; Williams, Meredith C.; McRae, Jacquelyn M.; Vargas, Stefan

2017-01-01

Medicare Advantage (MA) has grown rapidly since the Affordable Care Act; nearly one-third of Medicare beneficiaries now choose MA. An assessment of the comparative value of the 2 options is confounded by an apparent selection bias favoring MA, as reflected in mortality differences. Previous assessments have been hampered by lack of access to claims diagnosis data for the MA population. An indirect comparison of mortality as an outcome variable was conducted by modeling mortality on a traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare data set, applying the model to an MA data set, and then evaluating the ratio of actual-to-predicted mortality in the MA data set. The mortality model adjusted for clinical conditions and demographic factors. Model development considered the effect of potentially greater coding intensity in the MA population. Further analysis calculated ratios for subpopulations. Predicted, risk-adjusted mortality was lower in the MA population than in FFS Medicare. However, the ratio of actual-to-predicted mortality (0.80) suggested that the individuals in the MA data set were less likely to die than would be predicted had those individuals been enrolled in FFS Medicare. Differences between actual and predicted mortality were particularly pronounced in low income (dual eligibility), nonwhite race, high morbidity, and Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) subgroups. After controlling for baseline clinical risk as represented by claims diagnosis data, mortality differences favoring MA over FFS Medicare persisted, particularly in vulnerable subgroups and HMO plans. These findings suggest that differences in morbidity do not fully explain differences in mortality between the 2 programs. PMID:28578605

[Mortality due to pesticide poisoning in Colombia, 1998-2011].

PubMed

Chaparro-Narváez, Pablo; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos

2015-08-01

Poisoning due to pesticides is an important public health problem worldwide due its morbidity and mortality. In Colombia, there are no exact data on mortality due to pesticide poisoning. To estimate the trend of mortality rate due to pesticide poisoning in Colombia between 1998 and 2011. We carried out a descriptive analysis with the database reports of death as unintentional poisoning, self-inflicted intentional poisoning, aggression with pesticides, and poisoning with non-identified intentionality, population projections between 1998 and 2011, and rurality indexes. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates were estimated and trends and Spearman coefficients were evaluated. A total of 4,835 deaths were registered (age-adjusted mortality rate of 2.38 deaths per 100,000 people). Mortality rates were higher in rural areas, for self-inflicted intentional poisoning, in men and in age groups between 15 and 39 years old. The trend has been decreasing since 2002. Municipality mortality rates due to unintentional poisoning and aggression correlated significantly with the rurality index in less rural municipalities. Mortality rates due to pesticide poisoning presented a mild decrease between 1998 and 2011. It is necessary to adjust and reinforce the measures conducive to reducing pesticide exposure in order to avoid poisoning and reduce mortality.

Comparison of clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer and age-adjusted D-dimer interpretation to exclude venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Takach Lapner, Sarah; Julian, Jim A; Linkins, Lori-Ann; Bates, Shannon; Kearon, Clive

2017-10-05

Two new strategies for interpreting D-dimer results have been proposed: i) using a progressively higher D-dimer threshold with increasing age (age-adjusted strategy) and ii) using a D-dimer threshold in patients with low clinical probability that is twice the threshold used in patients with moderate clinical probability (clinical probability-adjusted strategy). Our objective was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of age-adjusted and clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer interpretation in patients with a low or moderate clinical probability of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We performed a retrospective analysis of clinical data and blood samples from two prospective studies. We compared the negative predictive value (NPV) for VTE, and the proportion of patients with a negative D-dimer result, using two D-dimer interpretation strategies: the age-adjusted strategy, which uses a progressively higher D-dimer threshold with increasing age over 50 years (age in years × 10 µg/L FEU); and the clinical probability-adjusted strategy which uses a D-dimer threshold of 1000 µg/L FEU in patients with low clinical probability and 500 µg/L FEU in patients with moderate clinical probability. A total of 1649 outpatients with low or moderate clinical probability for a first suspected deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism were included. The NPV of both the clinical probability-adjusted strategy (99.7 %) and the age-adjusted strategy (99.6 %) were similar. However, the proportion of patients with a negative result was greater with the clinical probability-adjusted strategy (56.1 % vs, 50.9 %; difference 5.2 %; 95 % CI 3.5 % to 6.8 %). These findings suggest that clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer interpretation is a better way of interpreting D-dimer results compared to age-adjusted interpretation.

Racial Disparities in Mortality Among Middle-Aged and Older Men: Does Marriage Matter?

PubMed

Su, Dejun; Stimpson, Jim P; Wilson, Fernando A

2015-07-01

Based on longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, this study assesses the importance of marital status in explaining racial disparities in all-cause mortality during an 18-year follow-up among White and African American men aged 51 to 61 years in 1992. Being married was associated with significant advantages in household income, health behaviors, and self-rated health. These advantages associated with marriage at baseline also got translated into better survival chance for married men during the 1992-2010 follow-up. Both marital selection and marital protection were relevant in explaining the mortality advantages associated with marriage. After adjusting for the effect of selected variables on premarital socioeconomic status and health, about 28% of the mortality gap between White and African American men in the Health and Retirement Study can be explained by the relatively low rates of marriage among African American men. Addressing the historically low rates of marriage among African Americans and their contributing factors becomes important for reducing racial disparities in men's mortality. © The Author(s) 2014.

Conservative fluid management prevents age-associated ventilator induced mortality.

PubMed

Herbert, Joseph A; Valentine, Michael S; Saravanan, Nivi; Schneck, Matthew B; Pidaparti, Ramana; Fowler, Alpha A; Reynolds, Angela M; Heise, Rebecca L

2016-08-01

Approximately 800 thousand patients require mechanical ventilation in the United States annually with an in-hospital mortality rate of over 30%. The majority of patients requiring mechanical ventilation are over the age of 65 and advanced age is known to increase the severity of ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI) and in-hospital mortality rates. However, the mechanisms which predispose aging ventilator patients to increased mortality rates are not fully understood. Ventilation with conservative fluid management decreases mortality rates in acute respiratory distress patients, but to date there has been no investigation of the effect of conservative fluid management on VILI and ventilator associated mortality rates. We hypothesized that age-associated increases in susceptibility and incidence of pulmonary edema strongly promote age-related increases in ventilator associated mortality. 2month old and 20month old male C57BL6 mice were mechanically ventilated with either high tidal volume (HVT) or low tidal volume (LVT) for up to 4h with either liberal or conservative fluid support. During ventilation, lung compliance, total lung capacity, and hysteresis curves were quantified. Following ventilation, bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was analyzed for total protein content and inflammatory cell infiltration. Wet to dry ratios were used to directly measure edema in excised lungs. Lung histology was performed to quantify alveolar barrier damage/destruction. Age matched non-ventilated mice were used as controls. At 4h, both advanced age and HVT ventilation significantly increased markers of inflammation and injury, degraded pulmonary mechanics, and decreased survival rates. Conservative fluid support significantly diminished pulmonary edema and improved pulmonary mechanics by 1h in advanced age HVT subjects. In 4h ventilations, conservative fluid support significantly diminished pulmonary edema, improved lung mechanics, and resulted in significantly lower mortality rates in

Conservative Fluid Management Prevents Age-Associated Ventilator Induced Mortality

PubMed Central

Herbert, Joseph A.; Valentine, Michael S.; Saravanan, Nivi; Schneck, Matthew B.; Pidaparti, Ramana; Fowler, Alpha A.; Reynolds, Angela M.; Heise, Rebecca L.

2017-01-01

Background Approximately 800 thousand patients require mechanical ventilation in the United States annually with an in-hospital mortality rate of over 30%. The majority of patients requiring mechanical ventilation are over the age of 65 and advanced age is known to increase the severity of ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI) and in-hosptial mortality rates. However, the mechanisms which predispose aging ventilator patients to increased mortality rates are not fully understood. Ventilation with conservative fluid management decreases mortality rates in acute respiratory distress patients, but to date there has been no investigation of the effect of conservative fluid management on VILI and ventilator associated mortality rates. We hypothesized that age-associated increases in susceptibility and incidence of pulmonary edema strongly promote age-related increases in ventilator associated mortality. Methods 2 month old and 20 month old male C57BL6 mice were mechanically ventilated with either high tidal volume (HVT) or low tidal volume (LVT) for up to 4 hours with either liberal or conservative fluid support. During ventilation, lung compliance, total lung capacity, and hysteresis curves were quantified. Following ventilation, bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was analyzed for total protein content and inflammatory cell infiltration. Wet to dry ratios were used to directly measure edema in excised lungs. Lung histology was performed to quantify alveolar barrier damage/destruction. Age matched non-ventilated mice were used as controls. Results At 4hrs, both advanced age and HVT ventilation significantly increased markers of inflammation and injury, degraded pulmonary mechanics, and decreased survival rates. Conservative fluid support significantly diminished pulmonary edema and improved pulmonary mechanics by 1hr in advanced age HVT subjects. In 4hr ventilations, conservative fluid support significantly diminished pulmonary edema, improved lung mechanics, and resulted in

Effect of diet intervention on long-term mortality in healthy middle-aged men with combined hyperlipidaemia.

PubMed

Hjerkinn, E M; Sandvik, L; Hjermann, I; Arnesen, H

2004-01-01

The aim was to study the effect of a 5-year diet intervention on 24-year mortality in middle aged men with combined hyperlipidaemia. We studied 104 initially healthy men (in 1972) aged 40-49 years with baseline values of total serum cholesterol >6.45 mmol L-1 and fasting triglycerides >2.55 mmol L-1, within the randomized diet and smoking cessation trial of the Oslo study (n = 1232). The participants were randomized to a 5-year diet intervention or a control group. The diet consisted of a traditional lipid-lowering diet with emphasis on reduction of saturated fat, total caloric intake and body weight. The groups were initially well balanced with regard to traditional risk factors for mortality. Thirty-three subjects died during the 24-year observation period [17 of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 12 of cancer]. In the diet intervention group, mortality was 51% lower (RR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.22-0.91, P = 0.022) as compared with the control group. This difference remained significant in a Cox regression analysis after adjusting for age and smoking status (RR = 0.47, 95% CI 0.23-0.96, P = 0.038). This study indicates that the investigated 5-year diet intervention significantly reduces late mortality in healthy middle-aged men with combined hyperlipidaemia.

Age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index score as predictor of survival of patients with digestive system cancer who have undergone surgical resection.

PubMed

Tian, Yaohua; Jian, Zhong; Xu, Beibei; Liu, Hui

2017-10-03

Comorbidities have considerable effects on survival outcomes. The primary objective of this retrospective study was to examine the association between age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) score and postoperative in-hospital mortality in patients with digestive system cancer who have undergone surgical resection of their cancers. Using electronic hospitalization summary reports, we identified 315,464 patients who had undergone surgery for digestive system cancer in top-rank (Grade 3A) hospitals in China between 2013 and 2015. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was applied to evaluate the effect of ACCI score on postoperative mortality, with adjustments for sex, type of resection, anesthesia methods, and caseload of each healthcare institution. The postoperative in-hospital mortality rate in the study cohort was 1.2% (3,631/315,464). ACCI score had a positive graded association with the risk of postoperative in-hospital mortality for all cancer subtypes. The adjusted HRs for postoperative in-hospital mortality scores ≥ 6 for esophagus, stomach, colorectum, pancreas, and liver and gallbladder cancer were 2.05 (95% CI: 1.45-2.92), 2.00 (95% CI: 1.60-2.49), 2.54 (95% CI: 2.02-3.21), 2.58 (95% CI: 1.68-3.97), and 4.57 (95% CI: 3.37-6.20), respectively, compared to scores of 0-1. These findings suggested that a high ACCI score is an independent predictor of postoperative in-hospital mortality in Chinese patients with digestive system cancer who have undergone surgical resection.

Age structure and mortality of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs: Use of mortality caps to establish realistic management objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quist, M.C.; Stephen, J.L.; Guy, C.S.; Schultz, R.D.

2004-01-01

Age structure, total annual mortality, and mortality caps (maximum mortality thresholds established by managers) were investigated for walleye Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) populations sampled from eight Kansas reservoirs during 1991-1999. We assessed age structure by examining the relative frequency of different ages in the population; total annual mortality of age-2 and older walleyes was estimated by use of a weighted catch curve. To evaluate the utility of mortality caps, we modeled threshold values of mortality by varying growth rates and management objectives. Estimated mortality thresholds were then compared with observed growth and mortality rates. The maximum age of walleyes varied from 5 to 11 years across reservoirs. Age structure was dominated (???72%) by walleyes age 3 and younger in all reservoirs, corresponding to ages that were not yet vulnerable to harvest. Total annual mortality rates varied from 40.7% to 59.5% across reservoirs and averaged 51.1% overall (SE = 2.3). Analysis of mortality caps indicated that a management objective of 500 mm for the mean length of walleyes harvested by anglers was realistic for all reservoirs with a 457-mm minimum length limit but not for those with a 381-mm minimum length limit. For a 500-mm mean length objective to be realized for reservoirs with a 381-mm length limit, managers must either reduce mortality rates (e.g., through restrictive harvest regulations) or increase growth of walleyes. When the assumed objective was to maintain the mean length of harvested walleyes at current levels, the observed annual mortality rates were below the mortality cap for all reservoirs except one. Mortality caps also provided insight on management objectives expressed in terms of proportional stock density (PSD). Results indicated that a PSD objective of 20-40 was realistic for most reservoirs. This study provides important walleye mortality information that can be used for monitoring or for inclusion into

Evoked Death-Related Thoughts in the Aftermath of Terror Attack: The Associations Between Mortality Salience Effect and Adjustment Disorder.

PubMed

Ring, Lia; Lavenda, Osnat; Hamama-Raz, Yaira; Ben-Ezra, Menachem; Pitcho-Prelorentzos, Shani; David, Udi Y; Zaken, Adi; Mahat-Shamir, Michal

2018-01-01

ICD-11 has provided a revised definition for adjustment disorder (AjD). The current study examined whether mortality salience effect, a possible consequence of a terror attack, may serve as a significant predictor associated with each of the AjD subscales. Using an online survey, 379 adult participants were recruited and filled out self-reported questionnaires dealing with adjustment disorder symptoms as well as mortality salience effect. Findings revealed that mortality salience effect was a significant predictor of all AjD subscales. The importance of mortality salience effect for AjD is discussed in light of terror management theory.

The influence of participation on mortality in very old age among community-living people in Sweden.

PubMed

Haak, Maria; Löfqvist, Charlotte; Ullén, Susann; Horstmann, Vibeke; Iwarsson, Susanne

2018-04-20

Participation in everyday life and society is generally seen as essential for health-related outcomes and acknowledged to affect older people's well-being. To investigate if aspects of performance- and togetherness-related participation influence on mortality among very old single living people in Sweden. ENABLE-AGE Survey Study data involving single-living participants in Sweden (N = 314, aged 81-91 years), followed over 10 years were used. Multivariate Cox regression models adjusted for demographic and health-related variables were used to analyse specific items influencing mortality. Participation in performance- or togetherness-oriented activities was found to significantly influence mortality [HR 0.62 (0.44-0.88), P value 0.006, and HR 0.72 (0.53-0.97), P value 0.031, respectively]. Talking to neighbours and following local politics had a protective effect on mortality, speaking to relatives on the phone (CI 1.10-2.02) and performing leisure activities together with others (CI 1.10-2.00) had the opposite influence. That is, those performing the latter activities were significantly more likely to die earlier. The main contribution of this study is the facet of the results showing that aspects of performance- and togetherness-related participation have a protective effect on mortality in very old age. This is important knowledge for designing health promotion and preventive efforts for the ageing population. Moreover, it constitutes a contribution to the development of instruments capturing aspects of participation influencing on mortality. In the development of health promotion and preventive efforts the inclusion of participation facets could be considered in favour of potential positive influences on longevity.

Influenza-related mortality trends in Japanese and American seniors: evidence for the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren.

PubMed

Charu, Vivek; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Sturm-Ramirez, Katharine; Shinjoh, Masayoshi; Chowell, Gerardo; Miller, Mark; Sugaya, Norio

2011-01-01

The historical Japanese influenza vaccination program targeted at schoolchildren provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the indirect benefits of vaccinating high-transmitter groups to mitigate disease burden among seniors. Here we characterize the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren based on data from Japan and the US. We compared age-specific influenza-related excess mortality rates in Japanese seniors aged ≥65 years during the schoolchildren vaccination program (1978-1994) and after the program was discontinued (1995-2006). Indirect vaccine benefits were adjusted for demographic changes, socioeconomics and dominant influenza subtype; US mortality data were used as a control. We estimate that the schoolchildren vaccination program conferred a 36% adjusted mortality reduction among Japanese seniors (95%CI: 17-51%), corresponding to ∼1,000 senior deaths averted by vaccination annually (95%CI: 400-1,800). In contrast, influenza-related mortality did not change among US seniors, despite increasing vaccine coverage in this population. The Japanese schoolchildren vaccination program was associated with substantial indirect mortality benefits in seniors.

Chagas disease predicts 10-year stroke mortality in community-dwelling elderly: the Bambui cohort study of aging.

PubMed

Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda; Matos, Divane L; Ribeiro, Antônio Luiz P

2010-11-01

Previous case-control studies have suggested a causal link between Chagas disease, which is caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, and stroke. We investigated the relationship between Chagas disease and long-term stroke mortality in a large community-based cohort of older adults. Participants were 1398 (80.3% from total) residents aged ≥ 60 years in Bambuí City, Brazil. The end point was death from stroke. Potential confounding variables included age, sex, conventional stroke risk factors, and high sensitive C-reactive protein. Participants of this study were followed from 1997 to 2007 leading to 9740 person-years of observation. The baseline prevalence of T. cruzi infection was 37.5% and the overall mortality rate from stroke was 4.62 per 1000 person-years. The risk of death from stroke among T. cruzi-infected participants was twice that of those noninfected (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.25 to 4.44). A B-type natriuretic peptide level in the top quartile was a strong and independent predictor of stroke mortality among those infected (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.72; 95% CI, 1.25 to 5.91). The presence of both a high B-type natriuretic peptide level and electrocardiographic atrial fibrillation increased the risk of stroke mortality by 11.49 (95% CI, 3.19 to 41.38) in these individuals. This study provides new evidence supporting a causal link between Chagas disease and stroke. The results also showed that B-type natriuretic peptide alone or in association with atrial fibrillation has prognostic value for stroke mortality in T. cruzi chronically infected older adults.

Lung, gastric and colorectal cancer mortality by occupation and industry among working-aged men in Japan.

PubMed

Eguchi, Hisashi; Wada, Koji; Prieto-Merino, David; Smith, Derek R

2017-02-23

We examined occupational and industrial differences in lung, gastric, and colorectal cancer risk among Japanese men of working age (25-64 years) using the 2010 Japanese national survey data for occupation and industry-specific death rates. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the age-adjusted incident rate ratios by lung, gastric, and colorectal cancers, with manufacturing used as the referent occupation or industry. Unemployed Japanese men and those in manufacturing had an 8-11-fold increased risk of lung, gastric and colorectal cancer. The highest mortality rates for lung and colorectal cancer by occupation were "administrative and managerial" (by occupation) and "mining" (by industry). For gastric cancer, the highest mortality rate was "agriculture" (by occupation) and "mining" (by industry). By occupation; Japanese men in service occupations, those in administrative and managerial positions, those in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, and those in professional and engineering categories had higher relative mortality risks for lung, gastric, and colorectal cancers. By industry; mining, electricity and gas, fisheries, and agriculture and forestry had the higher mortality risks for those cancers. Unemployed men had higher mortality rates than men in any occupation and industry for all three cancers. Overall, this study suggests that for Japanese men, occupations and industries may be a key social determinant of health.

Contemporary Sex-Based Differences by Age in Presenting Characteristics, Use of an Early Invasive Strategy, and Inhospital Mortality in Patients With Non-ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction in the United States.

PubMed

Gupta, Tanush; Kolte, Dhaval; Khera, Sahil; Agarwal, Nayan; Villablanca, Pedro A; Goel, Kashish; Patel, Kavisha; Aronow, Wilbert S; Wiley, Jose; Bortnick, Anna E; Aronow, Herbert D; Abbott, J Dawn; Pyo, Robert T; Panza, Julio A; Menegus, Mark A; Rihal, Charanjit S; Fonarow, Gregg C; Garcia, Mario J; Bhatt, Deepak L

2018-01-01

Prior studies have reported higher inhospital mortality in women versus men with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Whether this is because of worse baseline risk profile compared with men or sex-based disparities in treatment is not completely understood. We queried the 2003 to 2014 National Inpatient Sample databases to identify all hospitalizations in patients aged ≥18 years with the principal diagnosis of non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Complex samples multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine sex differences in use of an early invasive strategy and inhospital mortality. Of 4 765 739 patients with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, 2 026 285 (42.5%) were women. Women were on average 6 years older than men and had a higher comorbidity burden. Women were less likely to be treated with an early invasive strategy (29.4% versus 39.2%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.91-0.94). Women had higher crude inhospital mortality than men (4.7% versus 3.9%; unadjusted odds ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.25). After adjustment for age (adjusted odds ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-0.98) and additionally for comorbidities, other demographics, and hospital characteristics, women had 10% lower odds of inhospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.89-0.92). Further adjustment for differences in the use of an early invasive strategy did not change the association between female sex and lower risk-adjusted inhospital mortality. Although women were less likely to be treated with an early invasive strategy compared with men, the lower use of an early invasive strategy was not responsible for the higher crude inhospital mortality in women, which could be entirely explained by older age and higher comorbidity burden. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Synergistic effects of cognitive impairment on physical disability in all-cause mortality among men aged 80 years and over: Results from longitudinal older veterans study.

PubMed

Yu, Wan-Chen; Chou, Ming-Yueh; Peng, Li-Ning; Lin, Yu-Te; Liang, Chih-Kuang; Chen, Liang-Kung

2017-01-01

We evaluated effects of the interrelationship between physical disability and cognitive impairment on long-term mortality of men aged 80 years and older living in a retirement community in Taiwan. This prospective cohort study enrolled older men aged 80 and older living in a Veterans Care Home. Those with confirmed diagnosis of dementia were excluded. All participants received comprehensive geriatric assessment, including sociodemographic data, Charlson's Comorbidity Index (CCI), geriatric syndromes, activities of daily living (ADL) using the Barthel index and cognitive function using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Subjects were categorized into normal cognitive function, mild cognitive deterioration, and moderate-to-severe cognitive impairment and were further stratified by physical disability status. Kaplan-Meier log-rank test was used for survival analysis. After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and geriatric syndromes, Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to examine associations between cognitive function, disability and increased mortality risk. Among 305 male subjects aged 85.1 ± 4.1 years, 89 subjects died during follow-up (mean follow-up: 1.87 ± 0.90 years). Kaplan-Meier unadjusted analysis showed reduced survival probability associated with moderate-to-severe cognitive status and physical disability. Mortality risk increased significantly only for physically disabled subjects with simultaneous mild cognitive deterioration (adjusted HR 1.951, 95% CI 1.036-3.673, p = 0.038) or moderate-to-severe cognitive impairment (aHR 2.722, 95% CI 1.430-5.181, p = 0.002) after adjusting for age, BMI, education levels, smoking status, polypharmacy, visual and hearing impairment, urinary incontinence, fall history, depressive symptoms and CCI. Mortality risk was not increased among physically independent subjects with or without cognitive impairment, and physically disabled subjects with intact cognition. Physical disability is a major

Neonatal Mortality Risk Associated with Preterm Birth in East Africa, Adjusted by Weight for Gestational Age: Individual Participant Level Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Marchant, Tanya; Willey, Barbara; Katz, Joanne; Clarke, Siân; Kariuki, Simon; ter Kuile, Feiko; Lusingu, John; Ndyomugyenyi, Richard; Schmiegelow, Christentze; Watson-Jones, Deborah; Armstrong Schellenberg, Joanna

2012-01-01

Background Low birth weight and prematurity are amongst the strongest predictors of neonatal death. However, the extent to which they act independently is poorly understood. Our objective was to estimate the neonatal mortality risk associated with preterm birth when stratified by weight for gestational age in the high mortality setting of East Africa. Methods and Findings Members and collaborators of the Malaria and the MARCH Centers, at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, were contacted and protocols reviewed for East African studies that measured (1) birth weight, (2) gestational age at birth using antenatal ultrasound or neonatal assessment, and (3) neonatal mortality. Ten datasets were identified and four met the inclusion criteria. The four datasets (from Uganda, Kenya, and two from Tanzania) contained 5,727 births recorded between 1999–2010. 4,843 births had complete outcome data and were included in an individual participant level meta-analysis. 99% of 445 low birth weight (<2,500 g) babies were either preterm (<37 weeks gestation) or small for gestational age (below tenth percentile of weight for gestational age). 52% of 87 neonatal deaths occurred in preterm or small for gestational age babies. Babies born <34 weeks gestation had the highest odds of death compared to term babies (odds ratio [OR] 58.7 [95% CI 28.4–121.4]), with little difference when stratified by weight for gestational age. Babies born 34–36 weeks gestation with appropriate weight for gestational age had just three times the likelihood of neonatal death compared to babies born term, (OR 3.2 [95% CI 1.0–10.7]), but the likelihood for babies born 34–36 weeks who were also small for gestational age was 20 times higher (OR 19.8 [95% CI 8.3–47.4]). Only 1% of babies were born moderately premature and small for gestational age, but this group suffered 8% of deaths. Individual level data on newborns are scarce in East Africa; potential biases arising due to the non

The Intellectual Disability Mortality Disadvantage: Diminishing with Age?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landes, Scott D.

2017-01-01

On average, adults with intellectual disability (ID) have higher mortality risk than their peers in the general population. However, the effect of age on this mortality disadvantage has received minimal attention. Using data from the 1986-2011 National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files (NHIS-LMF), discrete time hazard models were used…

Observational intensity bias associated with illness adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims

PubMed Central

Staiger, Douglas O; Sharp, Sandra M; Gottlieb, Daniel J; Bevan, Gwyn; McPherson, Klim; Welch, H Gilbert

2013-01-01

Objective To determine the bias associated with frequency of visits by physicians in adjusting for illness, using diagnoses recorded in administrative databases. Setting Claims data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. Design Cross sectional analysis. Participants 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in the United States in 2007 (n=5 153 877). Main outcome measures The effect of illness adjustment on regional mortality and spending rates using standard and visit corrected illness methods for adjustment. The standard method adjusts using comorbidity measures based on diagnoses listed in administrative databases; the modified method corrects these measures for the frequency of visits by physicians. Three conventions for measuring comorbidity are used: the Charlson comorbidity index, Iezzoni chronic conditions, and hierarchical condition categories risk scores. Results The visit corrected Charlson comorbidity index explained more of the variation in age, sex, and race mortality across the 306 hospital referral regions than did the standard index (R2=0.21 v 0.11, P<0.001) and, compared with sex and race adjusted mortality, reduced regional variation, whereas adjustment using the standard Charlson comorbidity index increased it. Although visit corrected and age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates were similar in hospital referral regions with the highest and lowest fifths of visits, adjustment using the standard index resulted in a rate that was 18% lower in the highest fifth (46.4 v 56.3 deaths per 1000, P<0.001). Age, sex, and race adjusted spending as well as visit corrected spending was more than 30% greater in the highest fifth of visits than in the lowest fifth, but only 12% greater after adjustment using the standard index. Similar results were obtained using the Iezzoni and the hierarchical condition categories conventions for measuring comorbidity. Conclusion The

A comparison of administrative and physiologic predictive models in determining risk adjusted mortality rates in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Enfield, Kyle B; Schafer, Katherine; Zlupko, Mike; Herasevich, Vitaly; Novicoff, Wendy M; Gajic, Ognjen; Hoke, Tracey R; Truwit, Jonathon D

2012-01-01

Hospitals are increasingly compared based on clinical outcomes adjusted for severity of illness. Multiple methods exist to adjust for differences between patients. The challenge for consumers of this information, both the public and healthcare providers, is interpreting differences in risk adjustment models particularly when models differ in their use of administrative and physiologic data. We set to examine how administrative and physiologic models compare to each when applied to critically ill patients. We prospectively abstracted variables for a physiologic and administrative model of mortality from two intensive care units in the United States. Predicted mortality was compared through the Pearsons Product coefficient and Bland-Altman analysis. A subgroup of patients admitted directly from the emergency department was analyzed to remove potential confounding changes in condition prior to ICU admission. We included 556 patients from two academic medical centers in this analysis. The administrative model and physiologic models predicted mortalities for the combined cohort were 15.3% (95% CI 13.7%, 16.8%) and 24.6% (95% CI 22.7%, 26.5%) (t-test p-value<0.001). The r(2) for these models was 0.297. The Bland-Atlman plot suggests that at low predicted mortality there was good agreement; however, as mortality increased the models diverged. Similar results were found when analyzing a subgroup of patients admitted directly from the emergency department. When comparing the two hospitals, there was a statistical difference when using the administrative model but not the physiologic model. Unexplained mortality, defined as those patients who died who had a predicted mortality less than 10%, was a rare event by either model. In conclusion, while it has been shown that administrative models provide estimates of mortality that are similar to physiologic models in non-critically ill patients with pneumonia, our results suggest this finding can not be applied globally to

Age- and gender-specific population attributable risks of metabolic disorders on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Taiwan

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The extent of attributable risks of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components on mortality remains unclear, especially with respect to age and gender. We aimed to assess the age- and gender-specific population attributable risks (PARs) for cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality and all-cause mortality for public health planning. Methods A total of 2,092 men and 2,197 women 30 years of age and older, who were included in the 2002 Taiwan Survey of Hypertension, Hyperglycemia, and Hyperlipidemia (TwSHHH), were linked to national death certificates acquired through December 31, 2009. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios and PARs for mortality, with a median follow-up of 7.7 years. Results The respective PAR percentages of MetS for all-cause and CVD-related mortality were 11.6 and 39.2 in men, respectively, and 18.6 and 44.4 in women, respectively. Central obesity had the highest PAR for CVD mortality in women (57.5%), whereas arterial hypertension had the highest PAR in men (57.5%). For all-cause mortality, younger men and post-menopausal women had higher PARs related to Mets and its components; for CVD mortality, post-menopausal women had higher overall PARs than their pre-menopausal counterparts. Conclusions MetS has a limited application to the PAR for all-cause mortality, especially in men; its PAR for CVD mortality is more evident. For CVD mortality, MetS components have higher PARs than MetS itself, especially hypertension in men and waist circumference in post-menopausal women. In addition, PARs for diabetes mellitus and low HDL-cholesterol may exceed 20%. We suggest differential control of risk factors in different subpopulation as a strategy to prevent CVD-related mortality. PMID:22321049

Geographic Variations in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Among Asian American Subgroups, 2003-2011.

PubMed

Pu, Jia; Hastings, Katherine G; Boothroyd, Derek; Jose, Powell O; Chung, Sukyung; Shah, Janki B; Cullen, Mark R; Palaniappan, Latha P; Rehkopf, David H

2017-07-12

There are well-documented geographical differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality for non-Hispanic whites. However, it remains unknown whether similar geographical variation in CVD mortality exists for Asian American subgroups. This study aims to examine geographical differences in CVD mortality among Asian American subgroups living in the United States and whether they are consistent with geographical differences observed among non-Hispanic whites. Using US death records from 2003 to 2011 (n=3 897 040 CVD deaths), age-adjusted CVD mortality rates per 100 000 population and age-adjusted mortality rate ratios were calculated for the 6 largest Asian American subgroups (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese) and compared with non-Hispanic whites. There were consistently lower mortality rates for all Asian American subgroups compared with non-Hispanic whites across divisions for CVD mortality and ischemic heart disease mortality. However, cerebrovascular disease mortality demonstrated substantial geographical differences by Asian American subgroup. There were a number of regional divisions where certain Asian American subgroups (Filipino and Japanese men, Korean and Vietnamese men and women) possessed no mortality advantage compared with non-Hispanic whites. The most striking geographical variation was with Filipino men (age-adjusted mortality rate ratio=1.18; 95% CI, 1.14-1.24) and Japanese men (age-adjusted mortality rate ratio=1.05; 95% CI: 1.00-1.11) in the Pacific division who had significantly higher cerebrovascular mortality than non-Hispanic whites. There was substantial geographical variation in Asian American subgroup mortality for cerebrovascular disease when compared with non-Hispanic whites. It deserves increased attention to prioritize prevention and treatment in the Pacific division where approximately 80% of Filipinos CVD deaths and 90% of Japanese CVD deaths occur in the United States. © 2017 The Authors

Associations between AUDIT-C and mortality vary by age and sex.

PubMed

Harris, Alex H S; Bradley, Katharine A; Bowe, Thomas; Henderson, Patricia; Moos, Rudolf

2010-10-01

We sought to determine the sex- and age-specific risk of mortality associated with scores on the 3-item Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) questionnaire using data from a national sample of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients. Men (N = 215,924) and women (N = 9168) who completed the AUDIT-C in a patient survey were followed for 24 months. AUDIT-C categories (0, 1-4, 5-8, 9-12) were evaluated as predictors of mortality in logistic regression models, adjusted for age, race, education, marital status, smoking, depression, and comorbidities. For women, AUDIT-C scores of 9-12 were associated with a significantly increased risk of death compared to the AUDIT-C 1-4 group (odds ratio [OR] 7.09; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.67, 18.82). For men overall, AUDIT-C scores of 5-8 and 9-12 were associated with increased risk of death compared to the AUDIT-C 1-4 group (OR 1.13, 95% CI = 1.05, 1.21, and OR 1.63, 95% CI = 1.45, 1.84, respectively) but these associations varied by age. These results provide sex- and age-tailored risk information that clinicians can use in evidence-based conversations with patients about the health-related risks of their alcohol consumption. This study adds to the growing literature establishing the AUDIT-C as a scaled marker of alcohol-related risk or "vital sign" that might facilitate the detection and management of alcohol-related risks and problems.

Social isolation, health literacy, and mortality risk: Findings from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

PubMed

Smith, Samuel G; Jackson, Sarah E; Kobayashi, Lindsay C; Steptoe, Andrew

2018-02-01

To investigate the relationships between social isolation, health literacy, and all-cause mortality, and the modifying effect of social isolation on the latter relationship. Data were from 7731 adults aged ≥50 years participating in Wave 2 (2004/2005) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Social isolation was defined according to marital/cohabiting status and contact with children, relatives, and friends, and participation in social organizations. Scores were split at the median to indicate social isolation (yes vs. no). Health literacy was assessed as comprehension of a medicine label and classified as "high" (≥75% correct) or "low" (<75% correct). The outcome was all-cause mortality up to February 2013. Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, health status, health behaviors, and cognitive function. Mortality rates were 30.3% versus 14.3% in the low versus high health literacy groups, and 23.5% versus 13.7% in the socially isolated versus nonisolated groups. Low health literacy (adj. HR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.02-1.45 vs. high) and social isolation (adj. HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.10-1.50) were independently associated with increased mortality risk. The multiplicative interaction term for health literacy and social isolation was not statistically significant (p = .81). Low health literacy and high social isolation are risk factors for mortality. Social isolation does not modify the relationship between health literacy and mortality. Clinicians should be aware of the health risks faced by socially isolated adults and those with low health literacy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Lung, gastric and colorectal cancer mortality by occupation and industry among working-aged men in Japan

PubMed Central

Eguchi, Hisashi; Wada, Koji; Prieto-Merino, David; Smith, Derek R.

2017-01-01

We examined occupational and industrial differences in lung, gastric, and colorectal cancer risk among Japanese men of working age (25–64 years) using the 2010 Japanese national survey data for occupation and industry-specific death rates. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the age-adjusted incident rate ratios by lung, gastric, and colorectal cancers, with manufacturing used as the referent occupation or industry. Unemployed Japanese men and those in manufacturing had an 8–11-fold increased risk of lung, gastric and colorectal cancer. The highest mortality rates for lung and colorectal cancer by occupation were “administrative and managerial” (by occupation) and “mining” (by industry). For gastric cancer, the highest mortality rate was “agriculture” (by occupation) and “mining” (by industry). By occupation; Japanese men in service occupations, those in administrative and managerial positions, those in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, and those in professional and engineering categories had higher relative mortality risks for lung, gastric, and colorectal cancers. By industry; mining, electricity and gas, fisheries, and agriculture and forestry had the higher mortality risks for those cancers. Unemployed men had higher mortality rates than men in any occupation and industry for all three cancers. Overall, this study suggests that for Japanese men, occupations and industries may be a key social determinant of health. PMID:28230191

[Adherence to pharmaceutical guidance in patients over 85 years of age with chronic heart failure-stage C. Effects on 12-month mortality].

PubMed

Esteve Arríen, Ainhoa; Domínguez de Pablos, Gema; Minaya Saiz, Jesús

2009-01-01

To describe factors related to prescription on discharge of treatment for Chronic Heart Failure(CHF)-Stage C and to analyse whether this is related to 12month-mortality. Observational follow-up study of patients over 85 hospitalized during 2006/7 with Stage C-Chronic Heart Failure in an outskirt support hospital. Drug-prescription adherence was assessed according to the American Heart Society 2005-Guidelines and recommendations of the American Geriatrics Society-2007. A multivariate analysis of logistic regression was performed to obtain odds for 12-month mortality for each recommended therapy, adjusting by mortality risk factors. 104 patients aged 90+/-3yr were followed on discharge, 85% of which were women. NYHA-classes were distributed NYHA I-28,2%, II-37,9%, III-30,1%, IV-3,9%. Most frequently prescribed drugs were loop diuretics (83,3%) and IACEs/ARB (62%), and the less frequent beta-blockers (19,1%). IACEs/ARB were prescribed to those with lower functional impairment (p=0.04), and beta-blockers to those with worse NYHA class (p=0.02). All recommended prescriptions had a tendency to 12 month mortality risk reduction, even adjusted by age, functional status, co-morbidity, NYHA class and co-morbid atrial fibrillation, except for spironolactone (OR-1,8; IC95% 0,48-17,19). Treatment with CHF disease-modifying therapies except for spironolactone can reduce 12 month risk mortality, also in the oldest old. There exists room for improvement in frequency of drug prescription in this group of age.

External Validation of a Case-Mix Adjustment Model for the Standardized Reporting of 30-Day Stroke Mortality Rates in China

PubMed Central

Yu, Ping; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Yongjun; Wang, Xianwei; Liu, Liping; Ji, Ruijun; Meng, Xia; Jing, Jing; Tong, Xu; Guo, Li; Wang, Yilong

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose A case-mix adjustment model has been developed and externally validated, demonstrating promise. However, the model has not been thoroughly tested among populations in China. In our study, we evaluated the performance of the model in Chinese patients with acute stroke. Methods The case-mix adjustment model A includes items on age, presence of atrial fibrillation on admission, National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity Scale (NIHSS) score on admission, and stroke type. Model B is similar to Model A but includes only the consciousness component of the NIHSS score. Both model A and B were evaluated to predict 30-day mortality rates in 13,948 patients with acute stroke from the China National Stroke Registry. The discrimination of the models was quantified by c-statistic. Calibration was assessed using Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Results The c-statistic of model A in our external validation cohort was 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.79–0.82), and the c-statistic of model B was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.81–0.84). Excellent calibration was reported in the two models with Pearson’s correlation coefficient (0.892 for model A, p<0.001; 0.927 for model B, p = 0.008). Conclusions The case-mix adjustment model could be used to effectively predict 30-day mortality rates in Chinese patients with acute stroke. PMID:27846282

External Validation of a Case-Mix Adjustment Model for the Standardized Reporting of 30-Day Stroke Mortality Rates in China.

PubMed

Yu, Ping; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Yongjun; Wang, Xianwei; Liu, Liping; Ji, Ruijun; Meng, Xia; Jing, Jing; Tong, Xu; Guo, Li; Wang, Yilong

2016-01-01

A case-mix adjustment model has been developed and externally validated, demonstrating promise. However, the model has not been thoroughly tested among populations in China. In our study, we evaluated the performance of the model in Chinese patients with acute stroke. The case-mix adjustment model A includes items on age, presence of atrial fibrillation on admission, National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity Scale (NIHSS) score on admission, and stroke type. Model B is similar to Model A but includes only the consciousness component of the NIHSS score. Both model A and B were evaluated to predict 30-day mortality rates in 13,948 patients with acute stroke from the China National Stroke Registry. The discrimination of the models was quantified by c-statistic. Calibration was assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The c-statistic of model A in our external validation cohort was 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.82), and the c-statistic of model B was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.84). Excellent calibration was reported in the two models with Pearson's correlation coefficient (0.892 for model A, p<0.001; 0.927 for model B, p = 0.008). The case-mix adjustment model could be used to effectively predict 30-day mortality rates in Chinese patients with acute stroke.

IQ in late adolescence/early adulthood, risk factors in middle age, and later cancer mortality in men: the Vietnam Experience Study.

PubMed

Batty, G David; Mortensen, Laust H; Gale, Catharine R; Shipley, Martin J; Roberts, Beverly A; Deary, Ian J

2009-10-01

(i) examine the relation, if any, of pre-morbid IQ scores at 20 years of age with the risk of later cancer mortality; and (ii) explore the role, if any, of potential mediating factors (e.g. smoking, obesity), assessed in middle age, in explaining the IQ-cancer relation. Cohort study of 14, 491 male, Vietnam-era, former US army personnel with IQ test scores at around 20 years of age (1965-71), who participated in a risk factor survey at around age 38 years of age (1985-6), who were then followed up for mortality experience for 15 years. There were 176 cancer deaths during mortality surveillance. We found an inverse association of IQ with later mortality from all cancers combined (age-adjusted HR(per one SD decrease in IQ); 95% confidence interval: 1.27; 1.10, 1.46) and smoking-related malignancies (1.37; 1.14, 1.64). There was some attenuation following control for mediating variables, particularly smoking and income, but the gradients generally held at conventional levels of statistical significance. Higher scores on pre-morbid IQ tests are associated with lower risk of later cancer morality. The strength of the relation was partially mediated by established risk factors.

Study of colorectal mortality in the Andalusian population.

PubMed

Cayuela, A; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; Garzón-Benavides, M; Pizarro-Moreno, A; Giráldez-Gallego, A; Cordero-Fernández, C

2011-06-01

to provide up-to-date information and to analyze recent changes in colorectal cancer mortality trends in Andalusia during the period of 1980-2008 using joinpoint regression models. age- and sex-specific colorectal cancer deaths were taken from the official vital statistics published by the Instituto de Estadística de Andalucía for the years 1980 to 2008. We computed age-specific rates for each 5-year age group and calendar year and age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 men and women. A joinpoint regression analysis was used for trend analysis of standardized rates. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the years when a significant change in the linear slope of the temporal trend occurred. The best fitting points (the "join-points") are chosen where the rate significantly changes. mortality from colorectal cancer in Andalusia during the period studied has increased, from 277 deaths in 1980 to 1,227 in 2008 in men, and from 333 to 805 deaths in women. Adjusted overall colorectal cancer mortality rates increased from 7.7 to 17.0 deaths per 100,000 person-years in men and from 6.6 to 9.0 per 100,000 person-years in women Changes in mortality did not evolve similarly for men and women. Age-specific CRC mortality rates are lower in women than in men, which imply that women reach comparable levels of colorectal cancer mortality at higher ages than men. sex differences for colorectal cancer mortality have been widening in the last decade in Andalusia. In spite of the decreasing trends in age-adjusted mortality rates in women, incidence rates and the absolute numbers of deaths are still increasing, largely because of the aging of the population. Consequently, colorectal cancer still has a large impact on health care services, and this impact will continue to increase for many more years.

Early mortality experience in a large military cohort and a comparison of mortality data sources

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Complete and accurate ascertainment of mortality is critically important in any longitudinal study. Tracking of mortality is particularly essential among US military members because of unique occupational exposures (e.g., worldwide deployments as well as combat experiences). Our study objectives were to describe the early mortality experience of Panel 1 of the Millennium Cohort, consisting of participants in a 21-year prospective study of US military service members, and to assess data sources used to ascertain mortality. Methods A population-based random sample (n = 256,400) of all US military service members on service rosters as of October 1, 2000, was selected for study recruitment. Among this original sample, 214,388 had valid mailing addresses, were not in the pilot study, and comprised the group referred to in this study as the invited sample. Panel 1 participants were enrolled from 2001 to 2003, represented all armed service branches, and included active-duty, Reserve, and National Guard members. Crude death rates, as well as age- and sex-adjusted overall and age-adjusted, category-specific death rates were calculated and compared for participants (n = 77,047) and non-participants (n = 137,341) based on data from the Social Security Administration Death Master File, Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) files, and the Department of Defense Medical Mortality Registry, 2001-2006. Numbers of deaths identified by these three data sources, as well as the National Death Index, were compared for 2001-2004. Results There were 341 deaths among the participants for a crude death rate of 80.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 72.2,89.3) compared to 820 deaths and a crude death rate of 113.2 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 105.4, 120.9) for non-participants. Age-adjusted, category-specific death rates highlighted consistently higher rates among study non-participants. Although there were advantages and disadvantages for each data source

20 CFR 229.51 - Adjustment of age reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Adjustment of age reduction. 229.51 Section... age reduction. (a) General. If an age reduced employee or spouse overall minimum benefit is not paid for certain months before the employee or spouse attains retirement age, or the employee becomes...

20 CFR 229.51 - Adjustment of age reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Adjustment of age reduction. 229.51 Section... age reduction. (a) General. If an age reduced employee or spouse overall minimum benefit is not paid for certain months before the employee or spouse attains retirement age, or the employee becomes...

20 CFR 229.51 - Adjustment of age reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2014-04-01 2012-04-01 true Adjustment of age reduction. 229.51 Section... age reduction. (a) General. If an age reduced employee or spouse overall minimum benefit is not paid for certain months before the employee or spouse attains retirement age, or the employee becomes...

20 CFR 229.51 - Adjustment of age reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Adjustment of age reduction. 229.51 Section... age reduction. (a) General. If an age reduced employee or spouse overall minimum benefit is not paid for certain months before the employee or spouse attains retirement age, or the employee becomes...

20 CFR 229.51 - Adjustment of age reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Adjustment of age reduction. 229.51 Section... age reduction. (a) General. If an age reduced employee or spouse overall minimum benefit is not paid for certain months before the employee or spouse attains retirement age, or the employee becomes...

Rural/urban mortality differences in England and Wales and the effect of deprivation adjustment.

PubMed

Gartner, Andrea; Farewell, Daniel; Roach, Paul; Dunstan, Frank

2011-05-01

Perceptions that rural populations are inevitably healthier and live longer than urban populations are increasingly being challenged. But very few publications have investigated the extent to which these putative differences can be explained by variation in area composition. Existing publications have tended to use conventional deprivation measures, often thought to mask rural deprivation by favourable averages. Further, they have typically been based on large and variably-sized geographical units, or confined to studies of a single region or cause of death. This study examines differences in mortality between rural and urban areas in the entire population of England and Wales for 2002-2004. It uses the most up-to-date small geographical units of similar size and homogeneity of population together with the recently-introduced Rural and Urban Area Classification, and adjusts for five different deprivation measures (including modern composite indices). The causes of death investigated were all-cause mortality, cancer, lung cancer, respiratory disease, circulatory disease, suicide and accidents. Particular points of focus for the study were the potential for interaction between deprivation and rurality, and the importance of choice of deprivation measure in quantifying the relationships between mortality, rurality and deprivation. Choice of deprivation measure was not found to alter the substantive conclusions of any analysis, and little evidence for differential effects of deprivation in rural and urban areas was uncovered. Differences between rural and urban areas in all-cause, circulatory disease and cancer mortality could largely be accounted for by adjusting for deprivation. For these causes of death, therefore, rural populations were not found to be inherently healthier than their urban counterparts. However, substantial residual differences between rural and urban areas were found in comparisons of mortality from lung cancer and respiratory disease, mortality

Mortality in the Vertebroplasty Population

PubMed Central

McDonald, Robert J.; Achenbach, Sara; Atkinson, Elizabeth; Gray, Leigh A.; Cloft, Harry J.; Melton, L. Joseph; Kallmes, David F.

2011-01-01

Purpose Vertebroplasty is an effective treatment for painful compression fractures refractory to conservative management. Since there are limited data regarding the survival characteristics of this patient population, we compared the survival of a treated to an untreated vertebral fracture cohort to determine if vertebroplasty affects mortality rates. Materials and Methods The survival of a treated cohort, comprising 524 vertebroplasty recipients with refractory osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures, was compared to a separate, historical cohort of 589 subjects with fractures not treated by vertebroplasty who were identified from the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Mortality was compared between cohorts using Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for age, gender, and Charlson indices of co-morbidity. Mortality was also correlated with pre-, peri-, and post-procedural clinical metrics (e.g., cement volume utilization, Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire score, analog pain scales, frequency of narcotic use, and improvements in mobility) within the treated cohort. Results Vertebroplasty recipients demonstrated 77% of the survival expected for individuals of similar age, ethnicity, and gender within the US population. When compared to individuals with both symptomatic and asymptomatic untreated vertebral fractures, vertebroplasty recipients retained a 17% greater mortality risk. However, when compared to symptomatic untreated vertebral fractures, vertebroplasty recipients had no increased mortality following adjustment for differences in age, sex and co-morbidity (HR 1.02; CI 0.82–1.25). In addition, no clinical metrics used to assess the efficacy of vertebroplasty were predictive of survival. Conclusion Vertebroplasty recipients have mortality rates similar to individuals with untreated symptomatic fractures but worse mortality compared to those with asymptomatic vertebral fractures. PMID:21998109

Associations Between AUDIT-C and Mortality Vary by Age and Sex

PubMed Central

Bradley, Katharine A.; Bowe, Thomas; Henderson, Patricia; Moos, Rudolf

2010-01-01

Abstract We sought to determine the sex- and age-specific risk of mortality associated with scores on the 3-item Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test–Consumption (AUDIT-C) questionnaire using data from a national sample of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients. Men (N = 215,924) and women (N = 9168) who completed the AUDIT-C in a patient survey were followed for 24 months. AUDIT-C categories (0, 1–4, 5–8, 9–12) were evaluated as predictors of mortality in logistic regression models, adjusted for age, race, education, marital status, smoking, depression, and comorbidities. For women, AUDIT-C scores of 9–12 were associated with a significantly increased risk of death compared to the AUDIT-C 1-4 group (odds ratio [OR] 7.09; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.67, 18.82). For men overall, AUDIT-C scores of 5–8 and 9–12 were associated with increased risk of death compared to the AUDIT-C 1-4 group (OR 1.13, 95% CI = 1.05, 1.21, and OR 1.63, 95% CI = 1.45, 1.84, respectively) but these associations varied by age. These results provide sex- and age-tailored risk information that clinicians can use in evidence-based conversations with patients about the health-related risks of their alcohol consumption. This study adds to the growing literature establishing the AUDIT-C as a scaled marker of alcohol-related risk or “vital sign” that might facilitate the detection and management of alcohol-related risks and problems. (Population Health Management 2010;13:263–268) PMID:20879907

Vital Signs: Racial Disparities in Age-Specific Mortality Among Blacks or African Americans - United States, 1999-2015.

PubMed

Cunningham, Timothy J; Croft, Janet B; Liu, Yong; Lu, Hua; Eke, Paul I; Giles, Wayne H

2017-05-05

Although the overall life expectancy at birth has increased for both blacks and whites and the gap between these populations has narrowed, disparities in life expectancy and the leading causes of death for blacks compared with whites in the United States remain substantial. Understanding how factors that influence these disparities vary across the life span might enhance the targeting of appropriate interventions. Trends during 1999-2015 in mortality rates for the leading causes of death were examined by black and white race and age group. Multiple 2014 and 2015 national data sources were analyzed to compare blacks with whites in selected age groups by sociodemographic characteristics, self-reported health behaviors, health-related quality of life indicators, use of health services, and chronic conditions. During 1999-2015, age-adjusted death rates decreased significantly in both populations, with rates declining more sharply among blacks for most leading causes of death. Thus, the disparity gap in all-cause mortality rates narrowed from 33% in 1999 to 16% in 2015. However, during 2015, blacks still had higher death rates than whites for all-cause mortality in all groups aged <65 years. Compared with whites, blacks in age groups <65 years had higher levels of some self-reported risk factors and chronic diseases and mortality from cardiovascular diseases and cancer, diseases that are most common among persons aged ≥65 years. To continue to reduce the gap in health disparities, these findings suggest an ongoing need for universal and targeted interventions that address the leading causes of deaths among blacks (especially cardiovascular disease and cancer and their risk factors) across the life span and create equal opportunities for health.

Association of Patient Age at Gastric Bypass Surgery With Long-term All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality.

PubMed

Davidson, Lance E; Adams, Ted D; Kim, Jaewhan; Jones, Jessica L; Hashibe, Mia; Taylor, David; Mehta, Tapan; McKinlay, Rodrick; Simper, Steven C; Smith, Sherman C; Hunt, Steven C

2016-07-01

Bariatric surgery is effective in reducing all-cause and cause-specific long-term mortality. Whether the long-term mortality benefit of surgery applies to all ages at which surgery is performed is not known. To examine whether gastric bypass surgery is equally effective in reducing mortality in groups undergoing surgery at different ages. All-cause and cause-specific mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from a retrospective cohort within 4 categories defined by age at surgery: younger than 35 years, 35 through 44 years, 45 through 54 years, and 55 through 74 years. Mean follow-up was 7.2 years. Patients undergoing gastric bypass surgery seen at a private surgical practice from January 1, 1984, through December 31, 2002, were studied. Data analysis was performed from June 12, 2013, to September 6, 2015. A cohort of 7925 patients undergoing gastric bypass surgery and 7925 group-matched, severely obese individuals who did not undergo surgery were identified through driver license records. Matching criteria included year of surgery to year of driver license application, sex, 5-year age groups, and 3 body mass index categories. Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery. All-cause and cause-specific mortality compared between those undergoing and not undergoing gastric bypass surgery using HRs. Among the 7925 patients who underwent gastric bypass surgery, the mean (SD) age at surgery was 39.5 (10.5) years, and the mean (SD) presurgical body mass index was 45.3 (7.4). Compared with 7925 matched individuals not undergoing surgery, adjusted all-cause mortality after gastric bypass surgery was significantly lower for patients 35 through 44 years old (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.38-0.77), 45 through 54 years old (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.30-0.62), and 55 through 74 years old (HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.31-0.79; P < .003 for all) but was not lower for those younger than 35 years (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.82-1.81; P = .34). The lack of mortality benefit in those undergoing gastric

Quantifying and Adjusting for Disease Misclassification Due to Loss to Follow-Up in Historical Cohort Mortality Studies.

PubMed

Scott, Laura L F; Maldonado, George

2015-10-15

The purpose of this analysis was to quantify and adjust for disease misclassification from loss to follow-up in a historical cohort mortality study of workers where exposure was categorized as a multi-level variable. Disease classification parameters were defined using 2008 mortality data for the New Zealand population and the proportions of known deaths observed for the cohort. The probability distributions for each classification parameter were constructed to account for potential differences in mortality due to exposure status, gender, and ethnicity. Probabilistic uncertainty analysis (bias analysis), which uses Monte Carlo techniques, was then used to sample each parameter distribution 50,000 times, calculating adjusted odds ratios (ORDM-LTF) that compared the mortality of workers with the highest cumulative exposure to those that were considered never-exposed. The geometric mean ORDM-LTF ranged between 1.65 (certainty interval (CI): 0.50-3.88) and 3.33 (CI: 1.21-10.48), and the geometric mean of the disease-misclassification error factor (εDM-LTF), which is the ratio of the observed odds ratio to the adjusted odds ratio, had a range of 0.91 (CI: 0.29-2.52) to 1.85 (CI: 0.78-6.07). Only when workers in the highest exposure category were more likely than those never-exposed to be misclassified as non-cases did the ORDM-LTF frequency distributions shift further away from the null. The application of uncertainty analysis to historical cohort mortality studies with multi-level exposures can provide valuable insight into the magnitude and direction of study error resulting from losses to follow-up.

Relative size and stand age determine Pinus banksiana mortality

Treesearch

Han Y. H. Chen; Songling Fu; Robert A. Monserud; Ian C. Gillies

2008-01-01

Tree mortality is a poorly understood process in the boreal forest. Whereas large disturbances reset succession by killing all or most trees, background tree mortality was hypothesized to be affected by competition, ageing, and stand composition. We tested these hypotheses on jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) mortality using data from long-term...

Development and Evaluation of an Automated Machine Learning Algorithm for In-Hospital Mortality Risk Adjustment Among Critical Care Patients.

PubMed

Delahanty, Ryan J; Kaufman, David; Jones, Spencer S

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment algorithms for ICU mortality are necessary for measuring and improving ICU performance. Existing risk adjustment algorithms are not widely adopted. Key barriers to adoption include licensing and implementation costs as well as labor costs associated with human-intensive data collection. Widespread adoption of electronic health records makes automated risk adjustment feasible. Using modern machine learning methods and open source tools, we developed and evaluated a retrospective risk adjustment algorithm for in-hospital mortality among ICU patients. The Risk of Inpatient Death score can be fully automated and is reliant upon data elements that are generated in the course of usual hospital processes. One hundred thirty-one ICUs in 53 hospitals operated by Tenet Healthcare. A cohort of 237,173 ICU patients discharged between January 2014 and December 2016. The data were randomly split into training (36 hospitals), and validation (17 hospitals) data sets. Feature selection and model training were carried out using the training set while the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy of the model were assessed in the validation data set. Model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve; accuracy and calibration were assessed via adjusted Brier scores and visual analysis of calibration curves. Seventeen features, including a mix of clinical and administrative data elements, were retained in the final model. The Risk of Inpatient Death score demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.94) and calibration (adjusted Brier score = 52.8%) in the validation dataset; these results compare favorably to the published performance statistics for the most commonly used mortality risk adjustment algorithms. Low adoption of ICU mortality risk adjustment algorithms impedes progress toward increasing the value of the healthcare delivered in ICUs. The Risk of Inpatient Death

Temporal Trends in Mortality from Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke in Mexico, 1980-2012.

PubMed

Cruz, Copytzy; Campuzano-Rincón, Julio César; Calleja-Castillo, Juan Manuel; Hernández-Álvarez, Anaid; Parra, María Del Socorro; Moreno-Macias, Hortensia; Hernández-Girón, Carlos

2017-04-01

Over the past decades, the decline in mortality from stroke has been more pronounced in high-income countries than in low- and middle-income countries. We evaluated changes in temporal stroke mortality trends in Mexico according to sex and type of stroke. We assessed stroke mortality from Mexico's National Health Information System for the period from 1980 to 2012. We analyzed age-adjusted mortality rates by sex, type of stroke, and age group. The annual percentage change and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the slopes of the age-adjusted mortality trends were determined using joinpoint regression models. The age-adjusted mortality rates due to stroke decreased between 1980 and 2012, from 44.55 to 33.47 per 100,000 inhabitants, and the AAPC (95% confidence interval [CI]) was -.9 (-1.0 to -.7). The AAPC for females was -1.1 (-1.5 to -.7) and that for males was -.7 (-.9 to -.6). People older than 65 years showed the highest mortality throughout the period. Between 1980 and 2012, the AAPC (95% CI) for ischemic stroke was -3.8 (-4.8 to -2.8) and was -.5 (-.8 to -.2) for hemorrhagic stroke. For the same period, the AAPC for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) was -.7 (-1.6 to .2) and that for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) was 1.6 (.4-2.8). The age-adjusted mortality rates of all strokes combined, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and ICH, decreased between 1980 and 2012 in Mexico. However, the increase in SAH mortality makes it necessary to explore the risk factors and clinical management of this type of stroke. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of mortality trends by specific ethnic groups and age groups in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty; Siri, Zailan

2014-07-01

The number of people surviving until old age has been increasing worldwide. Reduction in fertility and mortality have resulted in increasing survival of populations to later life. This study examines the mortality trends among the three main ethnic groups in Malaysia, namely; the Malays, Chinese and Indians for four important age groups (adolescents, adults, middle age and elderly) for both gender. Since the data on mortality rates in Malaysia is only available in age groups such as 1-5, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 and so on, hence some distribution or interpolation method was essential to expand it to the individual ages. In the study, the Heligman and Pollard model will be used to expand the mortality rates from the age groups to the individual ages. It was found that decreasing trend in all age groups and ethnic groups. Female mortality is significantly lower than male mortality, and the difference may be increasing. Also the mortality rates for females are different than that for males in all ethnic groups, and the difference is generally increasing until it reaches its peak at the oldest age category. Due to the decreasing trend of mortality rates, the government needs to plan for health program to support more elderly people in the coming years.

20 CFR 228.16 - Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF... RETIREMENT ACT COMPUTATION OF SURVIVOR ANNUITIES The Tier I Annuity Component § 228.16 Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF). Upon the attainment of retirement age, the previously-computed age reduction factor...

20 CFR 228.16 - Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2014-04-01 2012-04-01 true Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF... RETIREMENT ACT COMPUTATION OF SURVIVOR ANNUITIES The Tier I Annuity Component § 228.16 Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF). Upon the attainment of retirement age, the previously-computed age reduction factor...

20 CFR 228.16 - Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF... RETIREMENT ACT COMPUTATION OF SURVIVOR ANNUITIES The Tier I Annuity Component § 228.16 Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF). Upon the attainment of retirement age, the previously-computed age reduction factor...

20 CFR 228.16 - Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF... RETIREMENT ACT COMPUTATION OF SURVIVOR ANNUITIES The Tier I Annuity Component § 228.16 Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF). Upon the attainment of retirement age, the previously-computed age reduction factor...

20 CFR 228.16 - Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF... RETIREMENT ACT COMPUTATION OF SURVIVOR ANNUITIES The Tier I Annuity Component § 228.16 Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF). Upon the attainment of retirement age, the previously-computed age reduction factor...

Differences between Men and Women in Time Trends in Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain (1980-2013).

PubMed

Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Clèries, Ramon; Lidón-Moyano, Cristina; González-de Paz, Luis; Martínez-Sánchez, Jose M

2016-06-01

The main risk factor for lung cancer is smoking, a habit that varies according to age and sex. The objective of this study was to explore trends in lung cancer mortality by sex and age from 1980 to 2013 in Spain. We used lung cancer mortality (International Classification of Diseases code 162 for the 9th edition, and codes C33 and C34 for 10th edition) and population data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude, truncated, age-adjusted mortality and age-specific mortality rates were assessed through joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change (APC). Age-adjusted mortality rate significantly increased from 1980 to 1991 among men (APC=3.12%) and significantly decreased between 2001 and 2013 (APC=-1.53%), a similar pattern was observed in age-specific rates. Among women, age-adjusted mortality rate increased from 1989 (APC 1989-1997=1.82%), with the greatest increase observed from 1997 until the end of the study in 2013 (APC=4.41%). Diverging trends in the prevalence of smoking could explain the increase in the rate of lung cancer-related mortality among Spanish women since the early 1990s. Public health policies should be implemented to reduce tobacco consumption in women and halt the increase in lung cancer mortality. Copyright © 2016 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Parental age and offspring mortality: Negative effects of reproductive ageing may be counterbalanced by secular increases in longevity.

PubMed

Barclay, Kieron; Myrskylä, Mikko

2018-07-01

As parental ages at birth continue to rise, concerns about the effects of fertility postponement on offspring are increasing. Due to reproductive ageing, advanced parental ages have been associated with negative health outcomes for offspring, including decreased longevity. The literature, however, has neglected to examine the potential benefits of being born at a later date. Secular declines in mortality mean that later birth cohorts are living longer. We analyse mortality over ages 30-74 among 1.9 million Swedish men and women born 1938-60, and use a sibling comparison design that accounts for all time-invariant factors shared by the siblings. When incorporating cohort improvements in mortality, we find that those born to older mothers do not suffer any significant mortality disadvantage, and that those born to older fathers have lower mortality. These findings are likely to be explained by secular declines in mortality counterbalancing the negative effects of reproductive ageing.

Association Between Mortality and Heritability of the Scale of Aging Vigor in Epidemiology.

PubMed

Sanders, Jason L; Singh, Jatinder; Minster, Ryan L; Walston, Jeremy D; Matteini, Amy M; Christensen, Kaare; Mayeux, Richard; Borecki, Ingrid B; Perls, Thomas; Newman, Anne B

2016-08-01

To investigate the association between mortality and heritability of a rescaled Fried frailty index, the Scale of Aging Vigor in Epidemiology (SAVE), to determine its value for genetic analyses. Longitudinal, community-based cohort study. The Long Life Family Study (LLFS) in the United States and Denmark. Long-lived individuals (N = 4,875, including 4,075 genetically related individuals) and their families (N = 551). The SAVE was administered to 3,599 participants and included weight change, weakness (grip strength), fatigue (questionnaire), physical activity (days walked in prior 2 weeks), and slowness (gait speed); each component was scored 0, 1, or 2 using approximate tertiles, and summed (range 0 (vigorous) to 10 (frail)). Heritability was determined using a variance component-based family analysis using a polygenic model. Association with mortality in the proband generation (N = 1,421) was calculated using Cox proportional hazards mixed-effect models. Heritability of the SAVE was 0.23 (P < .001) overall (n = 3,599), 0.31 (P < .001) in probands (n = 1,479), and 0.26 (P < .001) in offspring (n = 2,120). In adjusted models, higher SAVE scores were associated with higher mortality (score 5-6: hazard ratio (HR) = 2.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.46-5.51; score 7-10: HR = 3.40, 95% CI = 1.72-6.71) than lower scores (0-2). The SAVE was associated with mortality and was moderately heritable in the LLFS, suggesting a genetic component to age-related vigor and frailty and supporting its use for further genetic analyses. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Ethnic inequalities in mortality: the case of Arab-Americans.

PubMed

El-Sayed, Abdulrahman M; Tracy, Melissa; Scarborough, Peter; Galea, Sandro

2011-01-01

Although nearly 112 million residents of the United States belong to a non-white ethnic group, the literature about differences in health indicators across ethnic groups is limited almost exclusively to Hispanics. Features of the social experience of many ethnic groups including immigration, discrimination, and acculturation may plausibly influence mortality risk. We explored life expectancy and age-adjusted mortality risk of Arab-Americans (AAs), relative to non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites in Michigan, the state with the largest per capita population of AAs in the US. Data were collected about all deaths to AAs and non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites in Michigan between 1990 and 2007, and year 2000 census data were collected for population denominators. We calculated life expectancy, age-adjusted all-cause, cause-specific, and age-specific mortality rates stratified by ethnicity and gender among AAs and non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites. Among AAs, life expectancies among men and women were 2.0 and 1.4 years lower than among non-Arab and non-Hispanic White men and women, respectively. AA men had higher mortality than non-Arab and non-Hispanic White men due to infectious diseases, chronic diseases, and homicide. AA women had higher mortality than non-Arab and non-Hispanic White women due to chronic diseases. Despite better education and higher income, AAs have higher age-adjusted mortality risk than non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites, particularly due to chronic diseases. Features specific to AA culture may explain some of these findings. © 2011 El-Sayed et al.

Ethnic Inequalities in Mortality: The Case of Arab-Americans

PubMed Central

El-Sayed, Abdulrahman M.; Tracy, Melissa; Scarborough, Peter; Galea, Sandro

2011-01-01

Background Although nearly 112 million residents of the United States belong to a non-white ethnic group, the literature about differences in health indicators across ethnic groups is limited almost exclusively to Hispanics. Features of the social experience of many ethnic groups including immigration, discrimination, and acculturation may plausibly influence mortality risk. We explored life expectancy and age-adjusted mortality risk of Arab-Americans (AAs), relative to non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites in Michigan, the state with the largest per capita population of AAs in the US. Methodology/Principal Findings Data were collected about all deaths to AAs and non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites in Michigan between 1990 and 2007, and year 2000 census data were collected for population denominators. We calculated life expectancy, age-adjusted all-cause, cause-specific, and age-specific mortality rates stratified by ethnicity and gender among AAs and non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites. Among AAs, life expectancies among men and women were 2.0 and 1.4 years lower than among non-Arab and non-Hispanic White men and women, respectively. AA men had higher mortality than non-Arab and non-Hispanic White men due to infectious diseases, chronic diseases, and homicide. AA women had higher mortality than non-Arab and non-Hispanic White women due to chronic diseases. Conclusions/Significance Despite better education and higher income, AAs have higher age-adjusted mortality risk than non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites, particularly due to chronic diseases. Features specific to AA culture may explain some of these findings. PMID:22216204

Racial Difference in Sarcoidosis Mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Machado, Roberto F.; Schraufnagel, Dean; Sweiss, Nadera J.; Baughman, Robert P.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: The clinical presentation and outcome of sarcoidosis varies by race. However, the race difference in mortality outcome remains largely unknown. METHODS: We studied mortality related to sarcoidosis from 1999 through 2010 by examining data on multiple causes of death from the National Center for Health Statistics. We compared the comorbid conditions between sarcoidosis-related deaths with deaths caused by car accidents (previously healthy control subjects) and rheumatoid arthritis (chronic disease control subjects) in both African Americans and Caucasians. RESULTS: From 1999 through 2010, sarcoidosis was reported as an immediate cause of death in 10,348 people in the United States with a combined overall mean age-adjusted mortality rate of 2.8 per 1 million person-years. Of these, 6,285 were African American and 3,984 Caucasian. The age-adjusted mortality rate for African Americans was 12 times higher than for Caucasians. African Americans died at an earlier age than Caucasians. African Americans living in the District of Columbia and North Carolina and Caucasians living in Vermont had higher mortality rates. Although the total sarcoidosis age-adjusted mortality rate had not changed over the 12 year period studied, this rate increased for Caucasians (R = 0.747, P = .005) but not for African Americans. Compared with the control groups, pulmonary hypertension was significantly more common in individuals with sarcoidosis. CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide population-based study exposes a significant difference in ethnicity and sex among people dying of sarcoidosis in the United States. Pulmonary hypertension investigation should be considered in all patients with sarcoidosis, especially African Americans. PMID:25188873

Association with Mortality and Heritability of the Scale of Aging Vigor in Epidemiology (SAVE)

PubMed Central

Sanders, Jason L.; Singh, Jatinder; Minster, Ryan L.; Walston, Jeremy D.; Matteini, Amy M.; Christensen, Kaare; Mayeux, Richard; Borecki, Ingrid B.; Perls, Thomas; Newman, Anne B.

2016-01-01

Background Vigor may be an important phenotype of healthy aging. Factors that prevent frailty or conversely promote vigor are of interest. Using the Long Life Family Study (LLFS), we investigated the association with mortality and heritability of a rescaled Fried frailty index, the Scale of Aging Vigor in Epidemiology (SAVE), to determine its value for genetic analyses. Design/Setting Longitudinal, community-based cohort study of long lived individuals and their families (N=4075 genetically-related individuals) in the United States and Denmark. Methods The SAVE was measured in 3599 participants and included weight change, weakness (grip strength), fatigue (questionnaire), physical activity (days walked in prior 2 weeks), and slowness (gait speed), each component scored 0, 1 or 2 using approximate tertiles, and summed from 0 (vigorous) to 10 (frail). Heritability was determined with a variance-component based family analysis using a polygenic model. Association with mortality in the proband generation (N=1421) was calculated with Cox proportional hazards mixed effect models. Results Heritability of the SAVE was 0.23 (p = 1.72 × 10−13) overall (n=3599), 0.31 (p = 2.00 × 10−7) in probands (n=1479), and 0.26 (p = 2.00 × 10−6) in offspring (n=2120). In adjusted models, compared with lower SAVE scores (0–2), higher scores were associated with higher mortality (score 5–6 HR, 95%CI = 2.83, 1.46–5.51; score 7–10 HR, 95% CI = 3.40, 1.72–6.71). Conclusion The SAVE was associated with mortality and was moderately heritable in the LLFS, suggesting a genetic component to age-related vigor and frailty and supporting its use for further genetic analyses. PMID:27294813

Birth order and mortality: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Barclay, Kieron; Kolk, Martin

2015-04-01

This study uses Swedish population register data to investigate the relationship between birth order and mortality at ages 30 to 69 for Swedish cohorts born between 1938 and 1960, using a within-family comparison. The main analyses are conducted with discrete-time survival analysis using a within-family comparison, and the estimates are adjusted for age, mother's age at the time of birth, and cohort. Focusing on sibships ranging in size from two to six, we find that mortality risk in adulthood increases with later birth order. The results show that the relative effect of birth order is greater among women than among men. This pattern is consistent for all the major causes of death but is particularly pronounced for mortality attributable to cancers of the respiratory system and to external causes. Further analyses in which we adjust for adult socioeconomic status and adult educational attainment suggest that social pathways only mediate the relationship between birth order and mortality risk in adulthood to a limited degree.

Adolescent conduct problems and premature mortality: follow-up to age 65 years in a national birth cohort.

PubMed

Maughan, B; Stafford, M; Shah, I; Kuh, D

2014-04-01

Severe youth antisocial behaviour has been associated with increased risk of premature mortality in high-risk samples for many years, and some evidence now points to similar effects in representative samples. We set out to assess the prospective association between adolescent conduct problems and premature mortality in a population-based sample of men and women followed to the age of 65 years. A total of 4158 members of the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (the British 1946 birth cohort) were assessed for conduct problems at the ages of 13 and 15 years. Follow-up to the age of 65 years via the UK National Health Service Central Register provided data on date and cause of death. Dimensional measures of teacher-rated adolescent conduct problems were associated with increased hazards of death from cardiovascular disease by the age of 65 years in men [hazard ratio (HR) 1.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.32], and of all-cause and cancer mortality by the age of 65 years in women (all-cause HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.07-1.25). Adjustment for childhood cognition and family social class did little to attenuate these risks. Adolescent conduct problems were not associated with increased risks of unnatural/substance-related deaths in men or women in this representative sample. Whereas previous studies of high-risk delinquent or offender samples have highlighted increased risks of unnatural and alcohol- or substance abuse-related deaths in early adulthood, we found marked differences in mortality risk from other causes emerging later in the life course among women as well as men.

Use of life course work-family profiles to predict mortality risk among US women.

PubMed

Sabbath, Erika L; Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M Maria; Berkman, Lisa F

2015-04-01

We examined relationships between US women's exposure to midlife work-family demands and subsequent mortality risk. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work-family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work-family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work-family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years.

Antidepressant prescribing and changes in antidepressant poisoning mortality and suicide in England, 1993-2004.

PubMed

Morgan, Oliver; Griffiths, Clare; Majeed, Azeem

2008-03-01

In England, the impact of increased use of antidepressant medications is unclear. We examine associations between antidepressant use, suicide and antidepressant poisoning mortality, adjusted for important covariates. Data on suicide and antidepressant poisoning mortality were provided by the Office for National Statistics. Prescription data were provided by the Department of Health. Age- and sex-specific prescribing rates were estimated from The Health Improvement Network primary care data. We measured the association between prescribing, suicide and poisoning mortality after adjusting for age, sex, calendar year, prescribing rates and use of newer antidepressants drugs. The prevalence of antidepressant treatment increased during the 1990s for all age and sex groups. Treatment prevalence remained constant from 2002 but declined among children and adolescents. Between 1993 and 2004, age-standardized rates for suicide decreased from 98.2 to 81.3 per million populations and for antidepressants from 9.2 to 7.4 per million populations. Before adjustment, increased antidepressant prescribing was associated with a decrease in suicide (r(s) = -0.90, P < 0.001) and antidepressant poisoning mortality rates (r(s) = -0.65, P = 0.023). This association disappeared after adjustment. In England, at a population level, there does not appear to be an association between antidepressant prescribing and antidepressant poisoning mortality or suicide.

The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications? Methods We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled. Results For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact. Conclusions In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence

Trends in mortality from COPD among adults in the United States.

PubMed

Ford, Earl S

2015-10-01

COPD imposes a large public health burden internationally and in the United States. The objective of this study was to examine trends in mortality from COPD among US adults from 1968 to 2011. Data from the National Vital Statistics System from 1968 to 2011 for adults aged ≥ 25 years were accessed, and trends in mortality rates were examined with Joinpoint analysis. Among all adults, age-adjusted mortality rate rose from 29.4 per 100,000 population in 1968 to 67.0 per 100,000 population in 1999 and then declined to 63.7 per 100,000 population in 2011 (annual percentage change [APC] 2000-2011, -0.2%; 95% CI, -0.6 to 0.2). The age-adjusted mortality rate among men peaked in 1999 and then declined (APC 1999-2011, -1.1%; 95% CI, -1.4 to -0.7), whereas the age-adjusted mortality rate among women increased from 2000 to 2011, peaking in 2008 (APC 2000-2011, 0.4%; 95% CI, 0.0-0.9). Despite a narrowing of the sex gap, mortality rates in men continued to exceed those in women. Evidence of a decline in the APC was noted for black men (1999-2011, -1.5%; 95% CI, -2.1 to -1.0) and white men (1999-2011, -0.9%; 95% CI, -1.3 to -0.6), adults aged 55 to 64 years (1989-2011, -1.0%; 95% CI, -1.2 to -0.8), and adults aged 65 to 74 years (1999-2011, -1.2%; 95% CI, -1.6 to -0.9). In the United States, the mortality rate from COPD has declined since 1999 in men and some age groups but appears to be still rising in women, albeit at a reduced pace.

Age-Adjusted Percentage of Adults Aged 18 Years or Older with Diagnosed Diabetes Performing Daily Self-Monitoring of ...

MedlinePlus

... Share Compartir Age-Adjusted Percentage of Adults Aged 18 Years or Older with Diagnosed Diabetes Performing Daily ... 2010, the age-adjusted percentage of adults aged 18 years or older with diagnosed diabetes performing daily ...

Dietary Sodium Content, Mortality, and Risk for Cardiovascular Events in Older Adults: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

PubMed Central

Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P.; Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki V.; Murphy, Rachel A.; Newman, Anne B.; Bauer, Douglas C.; Harris, Tamara B.; Yang, Zhou; Applegate, William B.; Kritchevsky, Stephen B.

2016-01-01

Importance Additional information is needed on the role of dietary sodium on health outcomes in older adults. Objective To examine the association between dietary sodium intake and mortality, incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), and incident heart failure (HF) in older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants We analyzed 10-year follow-up data from 2,642 older adults (age 71-80) participating in a community-based, prospective cohort study (inception 1997-98). Exposure Dietary sodium intake at baseline was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). We examined sodium intake both as a continuous and as a categorical variable (<1500mg/d [N=291; 11.0%]; 1500–2300mg/d [N=779; 29.5%]; and >2300mg/d [N=1572; 59.5%]. Main Outcomes Adjudicated death, incident CVD, and incident HF over 10-years of follow-up. Analysis of incident CVD was restricted to those without prevalent CVD (N=1981) at baseline. Results Average age of participants was 73.6±2.9 years; 51.2% were women; 61.7% white; and 38.3% black. After 10 years, 881 participants had died, 572 developed CVD and 398 developed HF. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, sodium intake was not associated with mortality (HR per 1g, 1.03; 95%CI 0.98–1.09; P=0.27). Ten-year mortality was nonsignificantly lower in the 1500–2300-mg group (30.7%) compared to the <1500-mg (33.8%) and >2300-mg (35.2%) groups; P=0.074. Sodium intake >2300mg/d was associated with nonsignificantly higher mortality in adjusted models (HR vs. 1500–2300 mg/d, 1.15; 95%CI 0.99–1.35; P=0.072). Indexing sodium intake for caloric intake and body mass index did not materially affect the results. Adjusted HR for mortality was 1.20 (95%CI 0.93–1.54; P=0.16) per mg/kcal sodium and 1.11 (95%CI 0.96–1.28; P=0.17) per 100mg/kg/m2 sodium. In adjusted models accounting for the competing risk of death, sodium intake was not associated with risk for CVD (HR per 1g, 1.03; 95%CI 0.95–1.11; P=0.47) or HF (HR per 1g, 1.00; 95%CI 0.92–1

Independent and additive association of prenatal famine exposure and intermediary life conditions with adult mortality between age 18-63 years.

PubMed

Ekamper, P; van Poppel, F; Stein, A D; Lumey, L H

2014-10-01

To quantify the relation between prenatal famine exposure and adult mortality, taking into account mediating effects of intermediary life conditions. Historical follow-up study. The Dutch famine (Hunger Winter) of 1944-1945 which occurred towards the end of WWII in occupied Netherlands. From 408,015 Dutch male births born 1944-1947, examined for military service at age 18, we selected for follow-up all men born at the time of the famine in six affected cities in the Western Netherlands (n=25,283), and a sample of unexposed time (n=10,667) and place (n=9087) controls. These men were traced and followed for mortality through the national population and death record systems. All-cause mortality between ages 18 and 63 years using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for intermediary life conditions. An increase in mortality was seen after famine exposure in early gestation (HR 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.24) but not late gestation (HR 1.04; 95% CI: 0.96-1.13). Among intermediary life conditions at age 18 years, educational level was inversely associated with mortality and mortality was elevated in men with fathers with manual versus non-manual occupations (HR 1.08; CI: 1.02-1.16) and in men who were declared unfit for military service (HR 1.44; CI: 1.31-1.58). Associations of intermediate factors with mortality were independent of famine exposure in early life and associations between prenatal famine exposure and adult mortality were independent of social class and education at age 18. Timing of exposure in relation to the stage of pregnancy may be of critical importance for later health outcomes independent of intermediary life conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dietary sodium content, mortality, and risk for cardiovascular events in older adults: the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study.

PubMed

Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P; Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki V; Murphy, Rachel A; Newman, Anne B; Bauer, Douglas C; Harris, Tamara B; Yang, Zhou; Applegate, William B; Kritchevsky, Stephen B

2015-03-01

Additional information is needed about the role of dietary sodium on health outcomes in older adults. To examine the association between dietary sodium intake and mortality, incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), and incident heart failure (HF) in older adults. We analyzed 10-year follow-up data from 2642 older adults (age range, 71-80 years) participating in a community-based, prospective cohort study (inception between April 1, 1997, and July 31, 1998). Dietary sodium intake at baseline was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire. We examined sodium intake as a continuous variable and as a categorical variable at the following levels: less than 1500 mg/d (291 participants [11.0%]), 1500 to 2300 mg/d (779 participants [29.5%]), and greater than 2300 mg/d (1572 participants [59.5%]). Adjudicated death, incident CVD, and incident HF during 10 follow-up years. Analysis of incident CVD was restricted to 1981 participants without prevalent CVD at baseline. The mean (SD) age of participants was 73.6 (2.9) years, 51.2% were female, 61.7% were of white race, and 38.3% were black. After 10 years, 881 participants had died, 572 had developed CVD, and 398 had developed HF. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models, sodium intake was not associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 g, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.98-1.09; P = .27). Ten-year mortality was nonsignificantly lower in the group receiving 1500 to 2300 mg/d (30.7%) than in the group receiving less than 1500 mg/d (33.8%) and the group receiving greater than 2300 mg/d (35.2%) (P = .07). Sodium intake of greater than 2300 mg/d was associated with nonsignificantly higher mortality in adjusted models (HR vs 1500-2300 mg/d, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.99-1.35; P = .07). Indexing sodium intake for caloric intake and body mass index did not materially affect the results. Adjusted HRs for mortality were 1.20 (95% CI, 0.93-1.54; P = .16) per milligram per kilocalorie and 1.11 (95% CI, 0.96-1.28; P = .17) per

Ethnicity and mortality from systemic lupus erythematosus in the US.

PubMed

Krishnan, E; Hubert, H B

2006-11-01

To study ethnic differences in mortality from systemic lupus erythematosus (lupus) in two large, population-based datasets. We analysed the national death data (1979-98) from the National Center for Health Statistics (Hyattsville, Maryland, USA) and hospitalisation data (1993-2002) from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), the largest hospitalisation database in the US. The overall, unadjusted, lupus mortality in the National Center for Health Statistics data was 4.6 per million, whereas the proportion of in-hospital mortality from the NIS was 2.9%. African-Americans had disproportionately higher mortality risk than Caucasians (all-cause mortality relative risk adjusted for age = 1.24 (women), 1.36 (men); lupus mortality relative risk = 3.91 (women), 2.40 (men)). Excess risk was found among in-hospital deaths (odds ratio adjusted for age = 1.4 (women), 1.3 (men)). Lupus death rates increased overall from 1979 to 98 (p<0.001). The proportional increase was greatest among African-Americans. Among Caucasian men, death rates declined significantly (p<0.001), but rates did not change substantially for African-American men. The African-American:Caucasian mortality ratio rose with time among men, but there was little change among women. In analyses of the NIS data adjusted for age, the in-hospital mortality risk decreased with time among Caucasian women (p<0.001). African-Americans with lupus have 2-3-fold higher lupus mortality risk than Caucasians. The magnitude of the risk disparity is disproportionately higher than the disparity in all-cause mortality. A lupus-specific biological factor, as opposed to socioeconomic and access-to-care factors, may be responsible for this phenomenon.

Antidepressant use and mortality in very old people.

PubMed

Boström, Gustaf; Hörnsten, Carl; Brännström, Jon; Conradsson, Mia; Nordström, Peter; Allard, Per; Gustafson, Yngve; Littbrand, Håkan

2016-07-01

Antidepressant treatment may increase the risk of death. The association between antidepressants and mortality has been evaluated in community-dwelling older people, but not in representative samples of very old people, among whom dementia, multimorbidity, and disability are common. Umeå 85+/GERDA study participants (n = 992) aged 85, 90, and ≥95 years were followed for up to five years. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to analyze mortality risk associated with baseline antidepressant treatment, adjusted for potential confounders. Mean age was 89 years; 27% of participants had dementia, 20% had stroke histories, 29% had heart failure, and 16% used antidepressants. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, antidepressant use was associated with a 76% increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41-2.19). Adding adjustment for Geriatric Depression Scale score, HR was 1.62 (95% CI, 1.29-2.03). The association was not significant when adjusting for additional confounding factors (HR = 1.08; 95% CI, 0.85-1.38). Interaction analyses in the fully adjusted model revealed a significant interaction between sex and antidepressant use (HR: 1.76; 95% CI, 1.05-2.94). Among male and female antidepressant users, the HRs for death were 0.76 (95% CI, 0.47-1.24) and 1.28 (95% CI, 0.97-1.70), respectively. Among very old people, baseline antidepressant treatment does not seem to be independently associated with increased mortality risk. However, the risk may be different in men and women. This difference and the potential risk of initial treatment require further investigation in future cohort studies of very old people.

Constant mortality and fertility over age in Hydra

PubMed Central

Schaible, Ralf; Scheuerlein, Alexander; Dańko, Maciej J.; Gampe, Jutta; Martínez, Daniel E.; Vaupel, James W.

2015-01-01

Senescence, the increase in mortality and decline in fertility with age after maturity, was thought to be inevitable for all multicellular species capable of repeated breeding. Recent theoretical advances and compilations of data suggest that mortality and fertility trajectories can go up or down, or remain constant with age, but the data are scanty and problematic. Here, we present compelling evidence for constant age-specific death and reproduction rates in Hydra, a basal metazoan, in a set of experiments comprising more than 3.9 million days of observations of individual Hydra. Our data show that 2,256 Hydra from two closely related species in two laboratories in 12 cohorts, with cohort age ranging from 0 to more than 41 y, have extremely low, constant rates of mortality. Fertility rates for Hydra did not systematically decline with advancing age. This falsifies the universality of the theories of the evolution of aging that posit that all species deteriorate with age after maturity. The nonsenescent life history of Hydra implies levels of maintenance and repair that are sufficient to prevent the accumulation of damage for at least decades after maturity, far longer than the short life expectancy of Hydra in the wild. A high proportion of stem cells, constant and rapid cell turnover, few cell types, a simple body plan, and the fact that the germ line is not segregated from the soma are characteristics of Hydra that may make nonsenescence feasible. Nonsenescence may be optimal because lifetime reproduction may be enhanced more by extending adult life spans than by increasing daily fertility. PMID:26644561

Constant mortality and fertility over age in Hydra.

PubMed

Schaible, Ralf; Scheuerlein, Alexander; Dańko, Maciej J; Gampe, Jutta; Martínez, Daniel E; Vaupel, James W

2015-12-22

Senescence, the increase in mortality and decline in fertility with age after maturity, was thought to be inevitable for all multicellular species capable of repeated breeding. Recent theoretical advances and compilations of data suggest that mortality and fertility trajectories can go up or down, or remain constant with age, but the data are scanty and problematic. Here, we present compelling evidence for constant age-specific death and reproduction rates in Hydra, a basal metazoan, in a set of experiments comprising more than 3.9 million days of observations of individual Hydra. Our data show that 2,256 Hydra from two closely related species in two laboratories in 12 cohorts, with cohort age ranging from 0 to more than 41 y, have extremely low, constant rates of mortality. Fertility rates for Hydra did not systematically decline with advancing age. This falsifies the universality of the theories of the evolution of aging that posit that all species deteriorate with age after maturity. The nonsenescent life history of Hydra implies levels of maintenance and repair that are sufficient to prevent the accumulation of damage for at least decades after maturity, far longer than the short life expectancy of Hydra in the wild. A high proportion of stem cells, constant and rapid cell turnover, few cell types, a simple body plan, and the fact that the germ line is not segregated from the soma are characteristics of Hydra that may make nonsenescence feasible. Nonsenescence may be optimal because lifetime reproduction may be enhanced more by extending adult life spans than by increasing daily fertility.

Thyroid status and 6-year mortality in elderly people living in a mildly iodine-deficient area: the aging in the Chianti Area Study.

PubMed

Ceresini, Graziano; Ceda, Gian Paolo; Lauretani, Fulvio; Maggio, Marcello; Usberti, Elisa; Marina, Michela; Bandinelli, Stefania; Guralnik, Jack M; Valenti, Giorgio; Ferrucci, Luigi

2013-06-01

To test the hypothesis that, in older adults, living in a mildly iodine-deficient area, thyroid dysfunction may be associated with mortality independent of potential confounders. Longitudinal. Community-based. Nine hundred fifty-one individuals aged 65 and older. Plasma thyrotropin, free thyroxine, and free triiodothyronine concentrations and demographic features were evaluated in participants of the Invecchiare in Chianti Study aged 65 and older. Participants were classified according to thyroid function test. Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for confounders were used in the analysis. Eight hundred nineteen participants were euthyroid, 83 had subclinical hyperthyroidism (SHyper), and 29 had subclinical hypothyroidism (SHypo). Overt hypo- and hyperthyroidism were found in five and 15 subjects, respectively. During a median of 6 years of follow-up, 210 deaths occurred (22.1%), 98 (46.6%) of which were from cardiovascular causes. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed higher overall mortality for SHyper (P = .04) than euthyroid subjects. After adjusting for multiple confounders, participants with SHyper (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02-2.69) had significantly higher all-cause mortality than those with normal thyroid function. No significant association was found between SHyper and cardiovascular mortality. In euthyroid subjects, thyrotropin was found to be predictive of lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.57-0.99). SHyper is an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality in older adults. Low to normal circulating thyrotropin should be carefully monitored in elderly euthyroid individuals. © 2013, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2013, The American Geriatrics Society.

Pollinosis and all-cause mortality among middle-aged and elderly Japanese: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Konishi, S; Ng, C F S; Stickley, A; Watanabe, C

2016-08-01

Having an allergic disease may have health implications beyond those more commonly associated with allergy given that previous epidemiological studies have suggested that both atopy and allergy are linked to mortality. More viable immune functioning among the elderly, as indicated by the presence of an allergic disease, might therefore be associated with differences in all-cause mortality. Using data from a Japanese cohort, this study examined whether having pollinosis (a form of allergic rhinitis) in a follow-up survey could predict all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Data came from the Komo-Ise cohort, which at its 1993 baseline recruited residents aged 40-69 years from two areas in Gunma prefecture, Japan. The current study used information on pollinosis that was obtained from the follow-up survey in 2000. Mortality and migration data were obtained throughout the follow-up period up to December 2008. Proportional hazard models were used to examine the relation between pollinosis and mortality. At the 2000 follow-up survey, 12% (1088 of 8796) of respondents reported that they had pollinosis symptoms in the past 12 months. During the 76 186 person-years of follow-up, 748 died from all causes. Among these, there were 37 external, 208 cardiovascular, 74 respiratory, and 329 neoplasm deaths. After adjusting for potential confounders, pollinosis was associated with significantly lower all-cause [hazard ratio 0.57 (95% confidence interval = 0.38-0.87)] and neoplasms mortality [hazard ratio 0.48 (95% confidence interval = 0.26-0.92)]. Having an allergic disease (pollinosis) at an older age may be indicative of more viable immune functioning and be protective against certain causes of death. Further research is needed to determine the possible mechanisms underlying the association between pollinosis and mortality. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Process monitoring in intensive care with the use of cumulative expected minus observed mortality and risk-adjusted P charts.

PubMed

Cockings, Jerome G L; Cook, David A; Iqbal, Rehana K

2006-02-01

A health care system is a complex adaptive system. The effect of a single intervention, incorporated into a complex clinical environment, may be different from that expected. A national database such as the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme in the UK represents a centralised monitoring, surveillance and reporting system for retrospective quality and comparative audit. This can be supplemented with real-time process monitoring at a local level for continuous process improvement, allowing early detection of the impact of both unplanned and deliberately imposed changes in the clinical environment. Demographic and UK Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) data were prospectively collected on all patients admitted to a UK regional hospital between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2004 in accordance with the ICNARC Case Mix Programme. We present a cumulative expected minus observed (E-O) plot and the risk-adjusted p chart as methods of continuous process monitoring. We describe the construction and interpretation of these charts and show how they can be used to detect planned or unplanned organisational process changes affecting mortality outcomes. Five hundred and eighty-nine adult patients were included. The overall death rate was 0.78 of predicted. Calibration showed excess survival in ranges above 30% risk of death. The E-O plot confirmed a survival above that predicted. Small transient variations were seen in the slope that could represent random effects, or real but transient changes in the quality of care. The risk-adjusted p chart showed several observations below the 2 SD control limits of the expected mortality rate. These plots provide rapid analysis of risk-adjusted performance suitable for local application and interpretation. The E-O chart provided rapid easily visible feedback of changes in risk-adjusted mortality, while the risk-adjusted p chart allowed statistical evaluation. Local analysis of

North-South disparities in English mortality1965-2015: longitudinal population study.

PubMed

Buchan, Iain E; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Sperrin, Matthew; Chandola, Tarani; Doran, Tim

2017-09-01

Social, economic and health disparities between northern and southern England have persisted despite Government policies to reduce them. We examine long-term trends in premature mortality in northern and southern England across age groups, and whether mortality patterns changed after the 2008-2009 Great Recession. Population-wide longitudinal (1965-2015) study of mortality in England's five northernmost versus four southernmost Government Office Regions - halves of overall population. directly age-sex adjusted mortality rates; northern excess mortality (percentage excess northern vs southern deaths, age-sex adjusted). From 1965 to 2010, premature mortality (deaths per 10 000 aged <75 years) declined from 64 to 28 in southern versus 72 to 35 in northern England. From 2010 to 2015 the rate of decline in premature mortality plateaued in northern and southern England. For most age groups, northern excess mortality remained consistent from 1965 to 2015. For 25-34 and 35-44 age groups, however, northern excess mortality increased sharply between 1995 and 2015: from 2.2% (95% CI -3.2% to 7.6%) to 29.3% (95% CI 21.0% to 37.6%); and 3.3% (95% CI -1.0% to 7.6%) to 49.4% (95% CI 42.8% to 55.9%), respectively. This was due to northern mortality increasing (ages 25-34) or plateauing (ages 35-44) from the mid-1990s while southern mortality mainly declined. England's northern excess mortality has been consistent among those aged <25 and 45+ for the past five decades but risen alarmingly among those aged 25-44 since the mid-90s, long before the Great Recession. This profound and worsening structural inequality requires more equitable economic, social and health policies, including potential reactions to the England-wide loss of improvement in premature mortality. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Mammography interval and breast cancer mortality in women over the age of 75.

PubMed

Simon, Michael S; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Thomson, Cynthia A; Ray, Roberta M; Hubbell, F Allan; Lessin, Lawrence; Lane, Dorothy S; Kuller, Lew H

2014-11-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relationship between mammography interval and breast cancer mortality among older women with breast cancer. The study population included 1,914 women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer at age 75 or later during their participation in the Women's health initiative, with an average follow-up of 4.4 years (3.1 SD). Cause of death was based on medical record review. Mammography interval was defined as the time between the last self-reported mammogram 7 or more months prior to diagnosis, and the date of diagnosis. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for breast cancer mortality and all-cause mortality were computed from Cox proportional hazards analyses. Prior mammograms were reported by 73.0 % of women from 7 months to ≤2 year of diagnosis (referent group), 19.4 % (>2 to <5 years), and 7.5 % (≥5 years or no prior mammogram). Women with the longest versus shortest intervals had more poorly differentiated (28.5 % vs. 22.7 %), advanced stage (25.7 % vs. 22.9 %), and estrogen receptor negative tumors (20.9 % vs. 13.1 %). Compared to the referent group, women with intervals of >2 to <5 years or ≥5 years had an increased risk of breast cancer mortality (HR 1.62, 95 % CI 1.03-2.54) and (HR 2.80, 95 % CI 1.57-5.00), respectively, p trend = 0.0002. There was no significant relationship between mammography interval and other causes of death. These results suggest a continued role for screening mammography among women 75 years of age and older.

The role of HSP70 in mediating age-dependent mortality in sepsis

PubMed Central

McConnell, Kevin W.; Fox, Amy C.; Clark, Andrew T.; Chang, Nai-Yuan Nicholas; Dominguez, Jessica A.; Farris, Alton B.; Buchman, Timothy G.; Hunt, Clayton R.; Coopersmith, Craig M.

2011-01-01

Sepsis is primarily a disease of the aged, with increased incidence and mortality occurring in aged hosts. Heat shock protein (HSP) 70 plays an important role in both healthy aging and the stress response to injury. The purpose of this study was to determine the role of HSP70 in mediating mortality and the host inflammatory response in aged septic hosts. Sepsis was induced in both young (6–12week old) and aged (16–17 month old) HSP70−/− and wild type (WT) mice to determine if HSP70 modulated outcome in an age-dependent fashion. Young HSP70−/− and WT mice subjected to cecal ligation and puncture (CLP), Pseudomonas aeruginosa pneumonia or Streptococcus pneumoniae pneumonia had no differences in mortality, suggesting HSP70 does not mediate survival in young septic hosts. In contrast, mortality was higher in aged HSP70−/− mice than aged WT mice subjected to CLP (p=0.01), suggesting HSP70 mediates mortality in sepsis in an age-dependent fashion. Compared to WT mice, aged septic HSP70−/− mice had increased gut epithelial apoptosis and pulmonary inflammation. In addition, HSP70−/−mice had increased systemic levels of TNF-α, IL-6, IL-10 and IL-1β compared to WT mice. These data demonstrate that HSP70 is a key determinant of mortality in aged but not young hosts in sepsis. HSP70 may play a protective role in an age-dependent response to sepsis by preventing excessive gut apoptosis and both pulmonary and systemic inflammation. PMID:21296977

Reduced Lung Cancer Mortality With Lower Atmospheric Pressure.

PubMed

Merrill, Ray M; Frutos, Aaron

2018-01-01

Research has shown that higher altitude is associated with lower risk of lung cancer and improved survival among patients. The current study assessed the influence of county-level atmospheric pressure (a measure reflecting both altitude and temperature) on age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rates in the contiguous United States, with 2 forms of spatial regression. Ordinary least squares regression and geographically weighted regression models were used to evaluate the impact of climate and other selected variables on lung cancer mortality, based on 2974 counties. Atmospheric pressure was significantly positively associated with lung cancer mortality, after controlling for sunlight, precipitation, PM2.5 (µg/m 3 ), current smoker, and other selected variables. Positive county-level β coefficient estimates ( P < .05) for atmospheric pressure were observed throughout the United States, higher in the eastern half of the country. The spatial regression models showed that atmospheric pressure is positively associated with age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rates, after controlling for other selected variables.

Educational Inequalities in Post-Hip Fracture Mortality: A NOREPOS Study.

PubMed

Omsland, Tone K; Eisman, John A; Naess, Øyvind; Center, Jacqueline R; Gjesdal, Clara G; Tell, Grethe S; Emaus, Nina; Meyer, Haakon E; Søgaard, Anne Johanne; Holvik, Kristin; Schei, Berit; Forsmo, Siri; Magnus, Jeanette H

2015-12-01

Hip fractures are associated with high excess mortality. Education is an important determinant of health, but little is known about educational inequalities in post-hip fracture mortality. Our objective was to investigate educational inequalities in post-hip fracture mortality and to examine whether comorbidity or family composition could explain any association. We conducted a register-based population study of Norwegians aged 50 years and older from 2002 to 2010. We measured total mortality according to educational attainment in 56,269 hip fracture patients (NORHip) and in the general Norwegian population. Both absolute and relative educational inequalities in mortality in people with and without hip fracture were compared. There was an educational gradient in post-hip fracture mortality in both sexes. Compared with those with primary education only, the age-adjusted relative risk (RR) of mortality in hip fracture patients with tertiary education was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.87) in men and 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.84) in women. Additional adjustments for Charlson comorbidity index, marital status, and number of children did not materially change the estimates. Regardless of educational attainment, the 1-year age-adjusted mortality was three- to fivefold higher in hip fracture patients compared with peers in the general population without fracture. The absolute differences in 1-year mortality according to educational attainment were considerably larger in hip fracture patients than in the population without hip fracture. Absolute educational inequalities in mortality were higher after hip fracture compared with the general population without hip fracture and were not mediated by comorbidity or family composition. Investigation of other possible mediating factors might help to identify new targets for interventions, based on lower educational attainment, to reduce post-hip fracture mortality. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Thyroid STAtus and 6-Year Mortality in Elderly People Living in a Mildly Iodine-Deficient Area: The Aging in the Chianti Area (InCHIANTI) Study

PubMed Central

Ceresini, Graziano; Ceda, Gian Paolo; Lauretani, Fulvio; Maggio, Marcello; Usberti, Elisa; Marina, Michela; Bandinelli, Stefania; Guralnik, Jack M.; Valenti, Giorgio; Ferrucci, Luigi

2013-01-01

Objectives The relationship between thyroid dysfunction and mortality in elderly subjects is still undefined. In this population study we tested the hypothesis that in older subjects, living in a mildly iodine-deficient area, thyroid dysfunction may be associated with increased mortality independent of potential confounders. Design Longitudinal study Setting Community-based Participants Total of 951 subjects aged 65 years and older Measurements Plasma thyrotropin (TSH), free thyroxine (FT4), and free triiodothyronine (FT3) concentrations and demographic features were evaluated in participants of the Aging in the Chianti Area (InCHIANTI) study, aged 65 years or older. Participants were classified according to thyroid function test. Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for confounders were used in the analysis. Results A total of 819 participants were euthyroid, 83 had Subclinical hyperthyroidism (SHyper), and 29 had Subclinical hypothyroidism (SHypo). Overt Hypo- and Hyperthyroidism were found in 5 and 15 subjects, respectively. During a median of six-years of follow-up, N 210 deaths occurred (22.1 %) of which 98 (46.6%) due to cardiovascular causes. Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed higher overall mortality for SHyper (P<0.04) as compared to euthyroid subjects. After adjusting for multiple confounders, participants with SHyper (Hazard Ratio[HR]:1.65; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.02–2.69) had significantly higher all-cause mortality than those with normal thyroid function. No significant association was found between SHyper and cardiovascular mortality. In euthyroid subjects, TSH was found to be predictive of a reduced risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.76; 95% CI, 0.57–0.99) Conclusion SHyper is an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality in the older population. Low-normal circulating TSH should be carefully monitored in euthyroid elderly individuals. PMID:23647402

Statin, testosterone and phosphodiesterase 5-inhibitor treatments and age related mortality in diabetes

PubMed Central

Hackett, Geoffrey; Jones, Peter W; Strange, Richard C; Ramachandran, Sudarshan

2017-01-01

AIM To determine how statins, testosterone (T) replacement therapy (TRT) and phosphodiesterase 5-inhibitors (PDE5I) influence age related mortality in diabetic men. METHODS We studied 857 diabetic men screened for the BLAST study, stratifying them (mean follow-up = 3.8 years) into: (1) Normal T levels/untreated (total T > 12 nmol/L and free T > 0.25 nmol/L), Low T/untreated and Low T/treated; (2) PDE5I/untreated and PDE5I/treated; and (3) statin/untreated and statin/treated groups. The relationship between age and mortality, alone and with T/TRT, statin and PDE5I treatment was studied using logistic regression. Mortality probability and 95%CI were calculated from the above models for each individual. RESULTS Age was associated with mortality (logistic regression, OR = 1.10, 95%CI: 1.08-1.13, P < 0.001). With all factors included, age (OR = 1.08, 95%CI: 1.06-1.11, P < 0.001), Low T/treated (OR = 0.38, 95%CI: 0.15-0.92, P = 0.033), PDE5I/treated (OR = 0.17, 95%CI: 0.053-0.56, P = 0.004) and statin/treated (OR = 0.59, 95%CI: 0.36-0.97, P = 0.038) were associated with lower mortality. Age related mortality was as described by Gompertz, r2 = 0.881 when Ln (mortality) was plotted against age. The probability of mortality and 95%CI (from logistic regression) of individuals, treated/untreated with the drugs, alone and in combination was plotted against age. Overlap of 95%CI lines was evident with statins and TRT. No overlap was evident with PDE5I alone and with statins and TRT, this suggesting a change in the relationship between age and mortality. CONCLUSION We show that statins, PDE5I and TRT reduce mortality in diabetes. PDE5I, alone and with the other treatments significantly alter age related mortality in diabetic men. PMID:28344753

Differential mortality in New York City (1988-1992). Part One: excess mortality among non-Hispanic blacks.

PubMed

Fang, J; Madhavan, S; Cohen, H; Alderman, M H

1995-01-01

To determine the distribution of mortality for non-Hispanic blacks and non-Hispanic whites in New York City, death certificates issued in New York City during 1988 through 1992, and the relevant 1990 US census data for New York City, have been examined. Age-adjusted death rates for blacks and whites by gender and cause of death were computed based on the US population in 1940. Also, standard mortality ratios and excess mortality were calculated using the New York City mortality rate as reference. The results showed that New York City blacks had higher age-adjusted death rates than whites regardless of cause, including stroke, AIDS, homicide, and diabetes. The rate for New York City blacks was also higher than the US total for both genders. Using New York City mortality rates as a reference, more than 80% of excess deaths in blacks occurred before age 65. Injury/poisoning was the leading cause of excess death (20.1%) in black males, while in black females, cardiovascular disease was the largest single cause of excess deaths (24.8%). The higher death rates, especially premature death, of blacks in New York City are related to conditions such as violence, substance abuse, and AIDS, for which prevention rather than medical care is the more likely solution, as well as to cardiovascular diseases, where both prevention through behavioral change, and health and medical care, can influence outcome.

Age at menarche, total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke: the Adventist Health Study, 1976-88.

PubMed

Jacobsen, B K; Oda, K; Knutsen, S F; Fraser, G E

2009-02-01

Little is known about the relationship between age at menarche and total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke. A cohort study of 19 462 Californian Seventh-Day Adventist women followed-up from 1976 to 1988. A total of 3313 deaths occurred during follow-up, of which 809 were due to ischaemic heart disease and 378 due to stroke. An early menarche was associated with increased total mortality (P-value for linear trend <0.001), ischaemic heart disease (P-value for linear trend = 0.01) and stroke (P-value for linear trend = 0.02) mortality. There were, however, also some indications of an increased ischaemic heart disease mortality in women aged 16-18 at menarche (5% of the women). When assessed as a linear relationship, a 1-year delay in menarche was associated with 4.5% (95% CI 2.3-6.7) lower total mortality. The association was stronger for ischaemic heart disease [6.0% (95% CI 1.2-10.6)] and stroke [8.6% (95% CI 1.6-15.1)] mortality. The results suggest that there is a linear, inverse relationship between age at menarche and total mortality as well as with ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality.

Use of Life Course Work–Family Profiles to Predict Mortality Risk Among US Women

PubMed Central

Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M. Maria; Berkman, Lisa F.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We examined relationships between US women’s exposure to midlife work–family demands and subsequent mortality risk. Methods. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work–family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work–family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Results. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Conclusions. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work–family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years. PMID:25713976

Evidence of accelerated aging among African Americans and its implications for mortality.

PubMed

Levine, M E; Crimmins, E M

2014-10-01

Blacks experience morbidity and mortality earlier in the life course compared to whites. Such premature declines in health may be indicative of an acceleration of the aging process. The current study uses data on 7644 black and white participants, ages 30 and above, from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, to compare the biological ages of blacks and whites as indicated from a combination of ten biomarkers and to determine if such differences in biological age relative to chronological age account for racial disparities in mortality. At a specified chronological age, blacks are approximately 3 years older biologically than whites. Differences in biological age between blacks and whites appear to increase up until ages 60-65 and then decline, presumably due to mortality selection. Finally, differences in biological age were found to completely account for higher levels of all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality among blacks. Overall, these results suggest that being black is associated with significantly higher biological age at a given chronological age and that this is a pathway to early death both overall and from the major age-related diseases. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults (The ELSA and Bambui cohort ageing studies)

PubMed Central

Marmot, Michael G.; Demakakos, Panayotes; Vaz de Melo Mambrini, Juliana; Peixoto, Sérgio Viana; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda

2016-01-01

Background: The main aim of this study was to quantify and compare 6-year mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults. This study represents a rare opportunity to approach the subject in two different social and economic contexts. Methods: Data from the data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Bambuí Cohort Study of Ageing (Brazil) were used. Deaths in both cohorts were identified through mortality registers. Risk factors considered in this study were baseline smoking, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Both age–sex adjusted hazard ratios and population attributable risks (PAR) of all-cause mortality and their 95% confidence intervals for the association between risk factors and mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Participants were 3205 English and 1382 Brazilians aged 60 years and over. First, Brazilians showed much higher absolute risk of mortality than English and this finding was consistent in all age, independently of sex. Second, as a rule, hazard ratios for mortality to smoking, hypertension and diabetes showed more similarities than differences between these two populations. Third, there was strong difference among English and Brazilians on attributable deaths to hypertension. Conclusions: The findings indicate that, despite of being in more recent transitions, the attributable deaths to one or more risk factors was twofold among Brazilians relative to the English. These findings call attention for the challenge imposed to health systems to prevent and treat non-communicable diseases, particularly in populations with low socioeconomic level. PMID:26666869

[Chile: mortality between 1 and 4 years of age. Trends and causes].

PubMed

Taucher, E

1981-08-01

The great decline in infant mortality in Chile in the last 2 decades provokes interest in the current situation in child mortality (for children 1-4 years of age). For the present analysis, central death rates and probabilities of dying are used, calculated with Greville's method from birth and death data. Mortality trends of the group between 1961-78, sex differentials, and causes of death are studied. The findings indicate that mortality in this age group has declined dramatically during the period of analysis, mainly due to the decrease in mortality from respiratory diseases, diarrhea, and diseases avoidable through vaccination. To attain the future approach of the Chilean rate to that of more developed countries, the reduction of mortality from respiratory diseases and diarrhea should continue together with the achievement of substantial reduction in mortality from violence and accidents. This, the primary cause of death in children, ages 1-4, has not varied during the period under study. (author's)

Frailty phenotype and its association with all-cause mortality in community-dwelling Norwegian women and men aged 70 years and older: The Tromsø Study 2001-2016.

PubMed

Langholz, Petja Lyn; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Cook, Sarah; Hopstock, Laila A

2018-05-29

There is a lack of studies on the prevalence of frailty, and the association between frailty and mortality in a Norwegian general population. Findings regarding sex differences in the association between frailty and mortality have been inconsistent. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between the frailty phenotype and all-cause mortality in men and women in a Norwegian cohort study. We followed 712 participants (52% women) aged ≥70 years participating in the population-based Tromsø 5 Study in 2001-2002 for all-cause mortality up to 2016. The frailty status at baseline was defined by a modified version of Fried's frailty criteria. Cox regression models were used to analyze the association between frailty and mortality with adjustment for age, sex, disability, comorbidity, smoking status and years of education. In total, 3.8% (n = 27) of participants were frail (women 4.4%, men 3.2%) and 38.1% (n = 271) were pre-frail (women 45.8%, men 29.9%). During follow-up (mean 10.1 years), 501 (70%) participants died. We found an increased risk of mortality for frail older adults (multivariable-adjusted HR 4.16, 95% CI 2.40-7.22) compared with non-frail older adults. In sex-stratified analysis, the adjusted HR was 7.09 (95% CI 3.03-16.58) for frail men and 2.93 (95% CI 1.38-6.22) for frail women. Results for pre-frailty showed an overall weaker association with mortality. While frailty was more prevalent in women than in men, the findings suggest that the association between frailty and mortality is stronger in men than in women. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2018; ••: ••-••. © 2018 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Morbidity and Mortality in Small for Gestational Age Infants at 22 to 29 Weeks' Gestation.

PubMed

Boghossian, Nansi S; Geraci, Marco; Edwards, Erika M; Horbar, Jeffrey D

2018-02-01

To identify the relative risks of mortality and morbidities for small for gestational age (SGA) infants in comparison with non-SGA infants born at 22 to 29 weeks' gestation. Data were collected (2006-2014) on 156 587 infants from 852 US centers participating in the Vermont Oxford Network. We defined SGA as sex-specific birth weight <10th centile for gestational age (GA) in days. Binomial generalized additive models with a thin plate spline term on GA by SGA were used to calculate the adjusted relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for outcomes by GA. Compared with non-SGA infants, the risk of patent ductus arteriosus decreased for SGA infants in early GA and then increased in later GA. SGA infants were also at increased risks of mortality, respiratory distress syndrome, necrotizing enterocolitis, late-onset sepsis, severe retinopathy of prematurity, and chronic lung disease. These risks of adverse outcomes, however, were not homogeneous across the GA range. Early-onset sepsis was not different between the 2 groups for the majority of GAs, although severe intraventricular hemorrhage was decreased among SGA infants for only gestational week 24 through week 25. SGA was associated with additional risks to mortality and morbidities, but the risks differed across the GA range. Copyright © 2018 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Seasonal variation in child and old-age mortality in rural Ghana.

PubMed

Engelaer, Frouke M; van Bodegom, David; Mangione, Julia N A; Eriksson, Ulrika K; Westendorp, Rudi G J

2014-03-01

Mortality in tropical countries varies considerably from season to season. As many of these countries have seen mortality moving from child to old-age mortality, we have studied seasonal variation in child and old-age mortality in a rural area in Ghana that currently undergoes an epidemiologic transition. In an annual survey from 2002 through to 2011, we followed 29 642 individuals and obtained the cause and month of death from 1406 deceased individuals by making use of verbal autopsies. When comparing the seasons, we observed a trend for higher mortality during the wet season. When comparing separate months, we observed 34% more deaths than expected in September (95% CI 1.04-1.69; p = 0.024) at the end of the wet season and 43% more deaths in April (95% CI 1.13-1.80; p = 0.004) at the end of the dry season, while there were 42% less deaths than expected in December (95% CI 0.52-0.70; p = 0.003), shortly after the wet season. Cause-specific analysis indicated that the peak at the end of the wet season was due to excess mortality from infectious diseases in children and older people alike, whereas the peak in old-age mortality at the end of the dry season was due to non-infectious causes in older people only. Taken together, our data suggest that during the epidemiologic transition, mortality not only shifts from child to old-age and from infectious to non-infectious, but also from the wet to the dry season.

Socioeconomic factors and cervical cancer mortality in Spain during the period 1989-1997.

PubMed

Morales Suarez-Varela, M M; Jiménez-López, M C; Llópis-González, A

2004-01-01

A study was made of cervical cancer (CC) mortality trends in Spain during the period 1989-1997 at National, Autonomous Community and Provincial levels, in relation to different socioeconomic factors. Data were obtained from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, INE). The crude mortality rates were age-adjusted using the indirect method and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as socioeconomic status (SES) indicator. National CC age-adjusted mortality rates have increasing slightly, varying from 3.09 deaths/100000 women in 1989 to 3.42 in 1996. The highest age-adjusted mortality rates corresponded to Seville, Palencia and Orense, with 4.13, 4.06 and 3.98 cases/100000 women, respectively. The lowest mortality rates were found in Las Palmas, Cantabria and Alicante with 2.63, 2.77 and 2.80 deaths/100000 women, respectively. A relative risk (RR) of 1.14 (95%CI: 0.98-1.32) ( P=0.048) was observed between the provinces with the lowest SES and highest mortality rate, and those with the highest SES and lowest mortality rate. The results of our study show a slight increasing trend in CC mortality rates in Spain during the period 1989-1997, and suggest that the variations among provinces and Autonomous Communities could be due to CC risk factors (SES related to human papillomavirus, parity, diet, etc.) and differences in early diagnosis.

Associations of ikigai as a positive psychological factor with all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality among middle-aged and elderly Japanese people: findings from the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study.

PubMed

Tanno, Kozo; Sakata, Kiyomi; Ohsawa, Masaki; Onoda, Toshiyuki; Itai, Kazuyoshi; Yaegashi, Yumi; Tamakoshi, Akiko

2009-07-01

To determine whether presence of ikigai as a positive psychological factor is associated with decreased risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality among middle-aged and elderly Japanese men and women. From 1988 to 1990, a total of 30,155 men and 43,117 women aged 40 to 79 years completed a lifestyle questionnaire including a question about ikigai. Mortality follow-up was available for a mean of 12.5 years and was classified as having occurred in the first 5 years or the subsequent follow-up period. Associations between ikigai and all-cause and cause-specific mortality were assessed using a Cox's regression model. Multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) were adjusted for age, body mass index, drinking and smoking status, physical activity, sleep duration, education, occupation, marital status, perceived mental stress, and medical history. During the follow-up period, 10,021 deaths were recorded. Men and women with ikigai had decreased risks of mortality from all causes in the long-term follow-up period; multivariate HRs (95% confidence intervals, CIs) were 0.85 (0.80-0.90) for men and 0.93 (0.86-1.00) for women. The risk of cardiovascular mortality was reduced in men with ikigai; the multivariate HR (95% CI) was 0.86 (0.76-0.97). Furthermore, men and women with ikigai had a decreased risk for mortality from external causes; multivariate HRs (95% CIs) were 0.74 (0.59-0.93) for men and 0.67 (0.51-0.88) for women. The findings suggest that a positive psychological factor such as ikigai is associated with longevity among Japanese people.

Age-related differences in the effect of psychological distress on mortality: Type D personality in younger versus older patients with cardiac arrhythmias.

PubMed

Denollet, Johan; Tekle, Fetene B; van der Voort, Pepijn H; Alings, Marco; van den Broek, Krista C

2013-01-01

Mixed findings in biobehavioral research on heart disease may partly be attributed to age-related differences in the prognostic value of psychological distress. This study sought to test the hypothesis that Type D (distressed) personality contributes to an increased mortality risk following implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) treatment in younger patients but not in older patients. The Type D Scale (DS14) was used to assess general psychological distress in 455 younger (≤70 y, m = 59.1) and 134 older (>70 y, m = 74.3) ICD patients. End points were all-cause mortality and cardiac death after a median follow-up of 3.2 years. Older patients had more advanced heart failure and a higher mortality rate (n = 34/25%) than younger patients (n = 60/13%), P = 0.001. Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT), but not Type D personality, was associated with increased mortality in older patients. Among younger patients, however, Type D personality was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio = 1.91 (95% CI 1.09-3.34) and 2.26 (95% CI 1.16-4.41) for all-cause and cardiac mortality; other predictors were increasing age, CRT, appropriate shocks, ACE-inhibitors, and smoking. Type D personality was independently associated with all-cause and cardiac mortality in younger ICD patients but not in older patients. Cardiovascular research needs to further explore age-related differences in psychosocial risk.

Skin autofluorescence predicts cardiovascular mortality in patients on chronic hemodialysis.

PubMed

Kimura, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Kenichi; Kanno, Makoto; Watanabe, Kimio; Hayashi, Yoshimitsu; Asahi, Koichi; Suzuki, Hodaka; Sato, Keiji; Sakaue, Michiaki; Terawaki, Hiroyuki; Nakayama, Masaaki; Miyata, Toshio; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

2014-10-01

Tissue accumulation of advanced glycation end products (AGE) is thought to contribute to the progression of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Skin autofluorescence, a non-invasive measure of AGE accumulation using autofluorescence of the skin under ultraviolet light, has been reported to be an independent predictor of mortality associated with CVD in Caucasian patients on chronic hemodialysis. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of skin autofluorescence on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. Baseline skin autofluorescence was measured with an autofluorescence reader in 128 non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality was monitored prospectively during a period of 6 years. During the follow-up period, 42 of the 128 patients died; 19 of those patients died of CVD. Skin autofluorescence did not have a significant effect on all-cause mortality. However, age, carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT), serum albumin, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), skin autofluorescence and pre-existing CVD were significantly correlated with cardiovascular mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed skin autofluorescence (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.97; 95% confidence interval [CI]1.67-9.43), serum albumin (adjusted HR 0.05; 95% CI 0.01-0.32), and hsCRP (adjusted HR 1.55; 95% CI 1.18-2.05) to be independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. The present study suggests that skin autofluorescence is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. © 2014 The Authors. Therapeutic Apheresis and Dialysis © 2014 International Society for Apheresis.

Calculating summary statistics for population chemical biomonitoring in women of childbearing age with adjustment for age-specific natality.

PubMed

Axelrad, Daniel A; Cohen, Jonathan

2011-01-01

The effects of chemical exposures during pregnancy on children's health have been an increasing focus of environmental health research in recent years, leading to greater interest in biomonitoring of chemicals in women of childbearing age in the general population. Measurements of mercury in blood from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey are frequently reported for "women of childbearing age," defined to be of ages 16-49 years. The intent is to represent prenatal chemical exposure, but blood mercury levels increase with age. Furthermore, women of different ages have different probabilities of giving birth. We evaluated options to address potential bias in biomonitoring summary statistics for women of childbearing age by accounting for age-specific probabilities of giving birth. We calculated median and 95th percentile levels of mercury, PCBs, and cotinine using these approaches: option 1: women aged 16-49 years without natality adjustment; option 2: women aged 16-39 years without natality adjustment; option 3: women aged 16-49 years, adjusted for natality by age; option 4: women aged 16-49 years, adjusted for natality by age and race/ethnicity. Among the three chemicals examined, the choice of option has the greatest impact on estimated levels of serum PCBs, which are strongly associated with age. Serum cotinine levels among Black non-Hispanic women of childbearing age are understated when age-specific natality is not considered. For characterizing in utero exposures, adjustment using age-specific natality provides a substantial improvement in estimation of biomonitoring summary statistics. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating variation in use of definitive therapy and risk-adjusted prostate cancer mortality in England and the USA.

PubMed

Sachdeva, Ashwin; van der Meulen, Jan H; Emberton, Mark; Cathcart, Paul J

2015-02-24

Prostate cancer mortality (PCM) in the USA is among the lowest in the world, whereas PCM in England is among the highest in Europe. This paper aims to assess the association of variation in use of definitive therapy on risk-adjusted PCM in England as compared with the USA. Observational study. Cancer registry data from England and the USA. Men diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) in England and the USA between 2004 and 2008. Competing-risks survival analyses to estimate subhazard ratios (SHR) of PCM adjusted for age, ethnicity, year of diagnosis, Gleason score (GS) and clinical tumour (cT) stage. 222,163 men were eligible for inclusion. Compared with American patients, English patients were more likely to present at an older age (70-79 years: England 44.2%, USA 29.3%, p<0.001), with higher tumour stage (cT3-T4: England 25.1%, USA 8.6%, p<0.001) and higher GS (GS 8-10: England 20.7%, USA 11.2%, p<0.001). They were also less likely to receive definitive therapy (England 38%, USA 77%, p<0.001). English patients were more likely to die of PCa (SHR=1.9, 95% CI 1.7 to 2.0, p<0.001). However, this difference was no longer statistically significant when also adjusted for use of definitive therapy (SHR=1.0, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.1, p=0.3). Risk-adjusted PCM is significantly higher in England compared with the USA. This difference may be explained by less frequent use of definitive therapy in England. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Income inequality and cause-specific mortality during economic development.

PubMed

Lau, Elaine W; Schooling, C Mary; Tin, Keith Y; Leung, Gabriel M

2012-04-01

Life expectancy is strongly related to national income, whether there is an additional contribution of income inequality is unclear. We used negative binomial regression to examine the association of neighborhood-level Gini, adjusted for age, sex, and income, with mortality rates in Hong Kong from 1976 to 2006. The association of neighborhood Gini with all-cause mortality varied over time (p-value for interaction < .01). Neighborhood Gini was positively associated with nonmedical mortality in 1976 to 1986; incident rate ratio (IRR) 1.09, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.02-1.16 per 0.1 change and in 1991 to 2006, IRR 1.24, 95% CI 1.13-1.36, adjusted for age, sex and absolute income. Similarly adjusted, Gini was not associated with all-cause mortality in 1976 to 1986 (IRR 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-1.00) but was in 1991 to 2006 (IRR 1.25, 95% CI 1.20-1.29), when Gini was also positively associated with death from cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and some cancers. Independent of income, income inequality was positively associated with nonmedical mortality rates at a low level of spatial aggregation, indicating the consistent harms of social disharmony. However, the impact on medical mortality was less consistent, suggesting the relevance of contextual factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adjusted effects of domestic violence, tobacco use, and indoor air pollution from use of solid fuel on child mortality.

PubMed

Pandey, Shanta; Lin, Yuan

2013-10-01

Studies that have separately examined the consequences of gender based violence upon women, use of solid fuel for cooking, and mother and father's use of tobacco on child health have concluded that they serve as risk factors for maternal and child health. Some authors have implied that these studies may have run the risk of overestimating the burden of disease of one factor over another. In this paper, we included all four factors in the same model to estimate their adjusted effects on child mortality, controlling for the demographic factors. The data come from 2005 to 2006 National Family Health Survey of India that interviewed a nationally representative sample of 39,257 couples. Of the four factors, mothers' use of tobacco presented the highest risk for child mortality (OR = 1.42; CI = 1.27-1.60) followed by fathers' use of tobacco (OR = 1.23; CI = 1.12-1.36), households' use of solid fuel for cooking (OR = 1.23; CI = 1.06-1.43), and physical abuse upon mothers (OR = 1.20; CI = 1.10-1.32). Among the households that used solid fuel for cooking, improved cookstoves users experienced 28 % lower odds of child mortality (OR = 0.72; CI = 0.61-0.86) compared to nonusers of improved cookstoves. Additionally, increase in age of mothers at birth of first child, parents' education, and household wealth served as protective factors for child mortality. To prevent child death, programs should focus on reducing couple's use of tobacco, protecting women from physical abuse, and helping households switch from solid to liquid fuel. Moreover, a significant reduction in child death could be attained by improving girls' education, and delaying their age at marriage and first birth.

Pulmonary Function, Muscle Strength and Mortality in Old Age

PubMed Central

Buchman, A. S.; Boyle, P. A.; Wilson, R.S.; Gu, Liping; Bienias, Julia L.; Bennett, D. A.

2009-01-01

Numerous reports have linked extremity muscle strength with mortality but the mechanism underlying this association is not known. We used data from 960 older persons without dementia participating in the Rush Memory and Aging Project to test two sequential hypotheses: first, that extremity muscle strength is a surrogate for respiratory muscle strength, and second, that the association of respiratory muscle strength with mortality is mediated by pulmonary function. In a series of proportional hazards models, we first demonstrated that the association of extremity muscle strength with mortality was no longer significant after including a term for respiratory muscle strength, controlling for age, sex, education, and body mass index. Next, the association of respiratory muscle strength with mortality was attenuated by more than 50% and no longer significant after including a term for pulmonary function. The findings were unchanged after controlling for cognitive function, parkinsonian signs, physical frailty, balance, physical activity, possible COPD, use of pulmonary medications, vascular risk factors including smoking, chronic vascular diseases, musculoskeletal joint pain, and history of falls. Overall, these findings suggest that pulmonary function may partially account for the association of muscle strength and mortality. PMID:18755207

Perinatal mortality in twin pregnancy: an analysis of birth weight-specific mortality rates and adjusted mortality rates for birth weight distributions.

PubMed

Fabre, E; González de Agüero, R; de Agustin, J L; Pérez-Hiraldo, M P; Bescos, J L

1988-01-01

The objective of this study is to compare the fetal mortality rate (FMR), early neonatal mortality rate (ENMR) and perinatal mortality rate (PMR) of twin and single births. It is based on a survey which was carried out in 22 Hospital Centers in Spain in 1980, and covered 1,956 twins born and 110,734 singletons born. The FMR in twins was 36.3/1000 and 8.8/1000 for singletons. The ENMR in twins was 36.1/1000 and 5.7/1000 for singletons. The PMR in twins was 71.1/1000 and 14.4/1000 for singletons. When birthweight-specific PMR in twin and singletons births are compared, there were no differences between the rates for groups 500-999 g and 1000-1499 g. For birthweight groups of 1500-1999 g (124.4 vs 283.8/1000) and 2000-2999 g (29.6 vs 73.2/1000) the rates for twins were about twice lower than those for single births. The PMR for 2500 g and over birthweight was about twice higher in twins than in singletons (12.5 vs 5.5/1000). After we adjusted for birthweight there was a difference in the FMR (12.6 vs 9.8/1000) and the PMR (19.1 vs 16.0/1000, and no difference in the ENMR between twins and singletons (5.9 vs 6.4/1000), indicating that most of the differences among crude rates are due to differences in distribution of birthweight.

Aging in mortal superdiffusive Lévy walkers.

PubMed

Stage, Helena

2017-12-01

A growing body of literature examines the effects of superdiffusive subballistic movement premeasurement (aging or time lag) on observations arising from single-particle tracking. A neglected aspect is the finite lifetime of these Lévy walkers, be they proteins, cells, or larger structures. We examine the effects of aging on the motility of mortal walkers, and discuss the means by which permanent stopping of walkers may be categorized as arising from "natural" death or experimental artifacts such as low photostability or radiation damage. This is done by comparison of the walkers' mean squared displacement (MSD) with the front velocity of propagation of a group of walkers, which is found to be invariant under time lags. For any running time distribution of a mortal random walker, the MSD is tempered by the stopping rate θ. This provides a physical interpretation for truncated heavy-tailed diffusion processes and serves as a tool by which to better classify the underlying running time distributions of random walkers. Tempering of aged MSDs raises the issue of misinterpreting superdiffusive motion which appears Brownian or subdiffusive over certain time scales.

Aging in mortal superdiffusive Lévy walkers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stage, Helena

2017-12-01

A growing body of literature examines the effects of superdiffusive subballistic movement premeasurement (aging or time lag) on observations arising from single-particle tracking. A neglected aspect is the finite lifetime of these Lévy walkers, be they proteins, cells, or larger structures. We examine the effects of aging on the motility of mortal walkers, and discuss the means by which permanent stopping of walkers may be categorized as arising from "natural" death or experimental artifacts such as low photostability or radiation damage. This is done by comparison of the walkers' mean squared displacement (MSD) with the front velocity of propagation of a group of walkers, which is found to be invariant under time lags. For any running time distribution of a mortal random walker, the MSD is tempered by the stopping rate θ . This provides a physical interpretation for truncated heavy-tailed diffusion processes and serves as a tool by which to better classify the underlying running time distributions of random walkers. Tempering of aged MSDs raises the issue of misinterpreting superdiffusive motion which appears Brownian or subdiffusive over certain time scales.

Mortality of rheumatoid arthritis in Japan: a longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Hakoda, M; Oiwa, H; Kasagi, F; Masunari, N; Yamada, M; Suzuki, G; Fujiwara, S

2005-10-01

To determine the mortality risk of Japanese patients with rheumatoid arthritis, taking into account lifestyle and physical factors, including comorbidity. 91 individuals with rheumatoid arthritis were identified during screening a cohort of 16 119 Japanese atomic bomb survivors in the period 1958 to 1966. These individuals and the remainder of the cohort were followed for mortality until 1999. Mortality risk of the rheumatoid patients was estimated by the Cox proportional hazards model. In addition to age and sex, lifestyle and physical factors such as smoking status, alcohol consumption, blood pressure, and comorbidity were included as adjustment factors for the analysis of total mortality and for analysis of mortality from each cause of death. 83 of the rheumatoid patients (91.2%) and 8527 of the non-rheumatoid controls (52.9%) died during mean follow up periods of 17.8 and 28.0 years, respectively. The age and sex adjusted hazard ratio for mortality in the rheumatoid patients was 1.60 (95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 1.99), p < 0.001. Multiple adjustments, including for lifestyle and physical factors, resulted in a similar mortality hazard ratio of 1.57 (1.25 to 1.94), p < 0.001. Although mortality risk tended to be higher in male than in female rheumatoid patients, the difference was not significant. Pneumonia, tuberculosis, and liver disease were significantly increased as causes of death in rheumatoid patients. Rheumatoid arthritis is an independent risk factor for mortality. Infectious events are associated with increased mortality in rheumatoid arthritis.

Trends in oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancer mortality rates in Spain, 1952-2006: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Seoane-Mato, Daniel; Aragonés, Nuria; Ferreras, Eva; García-Pérez, Javier; Cervantes-Amat, Marta; Fernández-Navarro, Pablo; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; López-Abente, Gonzalo

2014-04-11

Although oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors, no comparative analysis of mortality rate trends in these illnesses has been undertaken in Spain. This study aimed to evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on the mortality rates of these tumours. Specific and age-adjusted mortality rates by tumour and sex were analysed. Age-period-cohort log-linear models were fitted separately for each tumour and sex, and segmented regression models were used to detect changes in period- and cohort-effect curvatures. Among men, the period-effect curvatures for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers displayed a mortality trend that rose until 1995 and then declined. Among women, oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality increased throughout the study period whereas oesophageal cancer mortality decreased after 1970. Stomach cancer mortality decreased in both sexes from 1965 onwards. Lastly, the cohort-effect curvature showed a certain degree of similarity for all three tumours in both sexes, which was greater among oral cavity, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers, with a change point in evidence, after which risk of death increased in cohorts born from the 1910-1920s onwards and decreased among the 1950-1960 cohorts and successive generations. This latter feature was likewise observed for stomach cancer. While the similarities of the cohort effects in oral cavity/pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric tumours support the implication of shared risk factors, the more marked changes in cohort-effect curvature for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer could be due to the greater influence of some risk factors in their aetiology, such as smoking and alcohol consumption. The increase in oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality in women deserves further study.

Frailty, Diabetes, and Mortality in Middle-Aged African Americans.

PubMed

Chode, S; Malmstrom, T K; Miller, D K; Morley, J E

2016-01-01

Older adult frail diabetics have high mortality risk, but data are limited regarding frail late middle-aged diabetics, especially for African-Americans. The aim of this study is to examine the association of diabetes with health outcomes and frailty in the African American Health (AAH) study. AAH is a population-based longitudinal cohort study. Participants were African Americans (N=998) ages 49 to 65 years at baseline. Cross-sectional comparisons for diabetes included disability, function, physical performance, cytokines, and frailty. Frailty measures included the International Academy of Nutrition and Aging [FRAIL] frailty scale, Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF] frailty scale, Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS] frailty scale, and Frailty Index [FI]). Longitudinal associations for diabetes included new ADLs ≥ 1 and mortality at 9-year follow-up. Diabetics were more likely to be frail using any of the 4 frailty scales than were non-diabetics. Frail diabetics, compared to nonfrail diabetics, reported significantly increased falls in last 1 year, higher IADLs and higher LBFLs. They demonstrated worse performance on the SPPB, one-leg stand, and grip strength; and higher Tumor Necrosis Factor receptors (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2). Mortality and 1 or more new ADLs also were increased among frail compared to nonfrail diabetics when followed for 9 years. Frailty in middle-aged African American persons with diabetes is associated with having more disability and functional limitations, worse physical performance, and higher cytokines (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 only). Middle-aged African Americans with diabetes have an increased risk of mortality and frail diabetics have an even higher risk of death, compared to nonfrail diabetics.

Educational differentials in mortality from cardiovascular disease among men and women: the Israel Longitudinal Mortality Study.

PubMed

Manor, Orly; Eisenbach, Zvi; Friedlander, Yechiel; Kark, Jeremy D

2004-08-01

While socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular disease have been observed in most industrialized countries, available information in Israel centers on ethnic variations and the role of education has yet to be investigated. This study examines educational differentials in cardiovascular mortality in Israel for both men and women aged 45 to 69 and 70 to 89 years. Data are based on a linkage of records from a 20% sample of the 1983 census with the records of deaths occurring until the end of 1992. The study population includes 152,150 individuals and the number of cardiovascular deaths was 14,651. Educational differentials were assessed for mortality of diseases of the circulatory system, ischemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, hypertensive diseases, and sudden death. Substantial mortality differentials were found among individuals aged 45 to 69 years, with larger inequalities among women. The age-adjusted relative risk for mortality of cardiovascular diseases among those with elementary education (< or =8 years) compared with those with high education (> or=13 years) was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.32-1.61) for men and 2.06 (95% CI: 1.76-2.41) for women. Differentials among the elderly were markedly narrower than those for younger adults. Similar trends were observed for mortality of subgroups of causes including cerebrovascular diseases and ischemic heart diseases. Educational differentials were not affected by adjustment for ethnic origin and car ownership. Those with 8 years of education or less suffer higher risk of cardiovascular mortality compared with adults with 13 or more years of education. Young, less educated women are more vulnerable, and health and social policies oriented towards this group are needed.

Hyperkalemia is Associated with Increased 30-Day Mortality in Hip Fracture Patients.

PubMed

Norring-Agerskov, Debbie; Madsen, Christian Medom; Abrahamsen, Bo; Riis, Troels; Pedersen, Ole B; Jørgensen, Niklas Rye; Bathum, Lise; Lauritzen, Jes Bruun; Jørgensen, Henrik L

2017-07-01

Abnormal plasma concentrations of potassium in the form of hyper- and hypokalemia are frequent among hospitalized patients and have been linked to poor outcomes. In this study, we examined the prevalence of hypo- and hyperkalemia in patients admitted with a fractured hip as well as the association with 30-day mortality in these patients. A total of 7293 hip fracture patients (aged 60 years or above) with admission plasma potassium measurements were included. Data on comorbidity, medication, and death was retrieved from national registries. The association between plasma potassium and mortality was examined using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidities. The prevalence of hypo- and hyperkalemia on admission was 19.8% and 6.6%, respectively. The 30-day mortality rates were increased for patients with hyperkalemia (21.0%, p < 0.0001) compared to normokalemic patients (9.5%), whereas hypokalemia was not significantly associated with mortality. After adjustment for age, sex, and individual comorbidities, hyperkalemia was still associated with increased risk of death 30 days after admission (HR = 1.93 [1.55-2.40], p < 0.0001). After the same adjustments, hypokalemia remained non-associated with increased risk of 30-day mortality (HR = 1.06 [0.87-1.29], p = 0.6). Hyperkalemia, but not hypokalemia, at admission is associated with increased 30-day mortality after a hip fracture.

Age at menarche, total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke: the Adventist Health Study, 1976–88

PubMed Central

Jacobsen, B K; Oda, K; Knutsen, S F; Fraser, G E

2009-01-01

Background Little is known about the relationship between age at menarche and total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke. Methods A cohort study of 19 462 Californian Seventh-Day Adventist women followed-up from 1976 to 1988. A total of 3313 deaths occurred during follow-up, of which 809 were due to ischaemic heart disease and 378 due to stroke. Results An early menarche was associated with increased total mortality (P-value for linear trend <0.001), ischaemic heart disease (P-value for linear trend = 0.01) and stroke (P-value for linear trend = 0.02) mortality. There were, however, also some indications of an increased ischaemic heart disease mortality in women aged 16–18 at menarche (5% of the women). When assessed as a linear relationship, a 1-year delay in menarche was associated with 4.5% (95% CI 2.3–6.7) lower total mortality. The association was stronger for ischaemic heart disease [6.0% (95% CI 1.2–10.6)] and stroke [8.6% (95% CI 1.6–15.1)] mortality. Conclusions The results suggest that there is a linear, inverse relationship between age at menarche and total mortality as well as with ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality. PMID:19188208

Trauma, comorbidity, and mortality following diagnoses of severe stress and adjustment disorders: a nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Gradus, Jaimie L; Antonsen, Sussie; Svensson, Elisabeth; Lash, Timothy L; Resick, Patricia A; Hansen, Jens Georg

2015-09-01

Longitudinal outcomes following stress or trauma diagnoses are receiving attention, yet population-based studies are few. The aims of the present cohort study were to examine the cumulative incidence of traumatic events and psychiatric diagnoses following diagnoses of severe stress and adjustment disorders categorized using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, codes and to examine associations of these diagnoses with all-cause mortality and suicide. Data came from a longitudinal cohort of all Danes who received a diagnosis of reaction to severe stress or adjustment disorders (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, code F43.x) between 1995 and 2011, and they were compared with data from a general-population cohort. Cumulative incidence curves were plotted to examine traumatic experiences and psychiatric diagnoses during the study period. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to examine the associations of the disorders with mortality and suicide. Participants with stress diagnoses had a higher incidence of traumatic events and psychiatric diagnoses than did the comparison group. Each disorder was associated with a higher rate of all-cause mortality than that seen in the comparison cohort, and strong associations with suicide were found after adjustment. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the associations of stress disorders with a variety of outcomes, and we found that stress diagnoses may have long-lasting and potentially severe consequences. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Occupational risks for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis mortality in the United States.

PubMed

Pinheiro, Germania A; Antao, Vinicius C; Wood, John M; Wassell, James T

2008-01-01

Metal and wood dust exposures have been identified as possible occupational risk factors for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We analyzed mortality data using ICD-10 code J84.1--"Other interstitial pulmonary diseases with fibrosis," derived age-adjusted mortality rates for 1999-2003, and assessed occupational risks for 1999, by calculating proportionate mortality ratios (PMRs) and mortality odds ratios (MORs) using a matched case-control approach. We identified 84,010 IPF deaths, with an age-adjusted mortality rate of 75.7 deaths/million. Mortality rates were highest among males, whites, and those aged 85 and older. Three industry categories with potential occupational exposures recognized as risk factors for IPF were identified: "Wood buildings and mobile homes" (PMR = 4.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-11.6 and MOR = 5.3, 95% CI 1.2-23.8), "Metal mining" (PMR = 2.4, 95% CI 1.3-4.0 and MOR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.4), and "Fabricated structural metal products" (PMR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.1 and MOR = 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-3.1). Workers in these industry categories may benefit from toxicological studies and improved surveillance for this disease.

Examining mortality risk and rate of ageing among Polish Olympic athletes: a survival follow-up from 1924 to 2012

PubMed Central

Lin, Yuhui; Gajewski, Antoni; Poznańska, Anna

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based studies have shown that an active lifestyle reduces mortality risk. Therefore, it has been a longstanding belief that individuals who engage in frequent exercise will experience a slower rate of ageing. It is uncertain whether this widely-accepted assumption holds for intense wear-and-tear. Here, using the 88 years survival follow-up data of Polish Olympic athletes, we report for the first time on whether frequent exercise alters the rate of ageing. Design Longitudinal survival data of male elite Polish athletes who participated in the Olympic Games from year 1924 to 2010 were used. Deaths occurring before the end of World War II were excluded for reliable estimates. Setting and participants Recruited male elite athletes N=1273 were preassigned to two categorical birth cohorts—Cohort I 1890–1919; Cohort II 1920–1959—and a parametric frailty survival analysis was conducted. An event-history analysis was also conducted to adjust for medical improvements from year 1920 onwards: Cohort II. Results Our findings suggest (1) in Cohort I, for every threefold reduction in mortality risk, the rate of ageing decelerates by 1%; (2) socioeconomic transitions and interventions contribute to a reduction in mortality risk of 29% for the general population and 50% for Olympic athletes; (3) an optimum benefit gained for reducing the rate of ageing from competitive sports (Cohort I 0.086 (95% CI 0.047 to 0.157) and Cohort II 0.085 (95% CI 0.050 to 0.144)). Conclusions This study further suggests that intensive physical training during youth should be considered as a factor to improve ageing and mortality risk parameters. PMID:27091824

The contribution of gestational age, area deprivation and mother’s country of birth to ethnic variations in infant mortality in England and Wales: A national cohort study using routinely collected data

PubMed Central

Quigley, Maria A.; Dattani, Nirupa; Gray, Ron; Jayaweera, Hiranthi; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J.; Macfarlane, Alison; Hollowell, Jennifer

2018-01-01

Objectives We aimed to describe ethnic variations in infant mortality and explore the contribution of area deprivation, mother’s country of birth, and prematurity to these variations. Methods We analyzed routine birth and death data on singleton live births (gestational age≥22 weeks) in England and Wales, 2006–2012. Infant mortality by ethnic group was analyzed using logistic regression with adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics and gestational age. Results In the 4,634,932 births analyzed, crude infant mortality rates were higher in Pakistani, Black Caribbean, Black African, and Bangladeshi infants (6.92, 6.00, 5.17 and 4.40 per 1,000 live births, respectively vs. 2.87 in White British infants). Adjustment for maternal sociodemographic characteristics changed the results little. Further adjustment for gestational age strongly attenuated the risk in Black Caribbean (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.89–1.17) and Black African infants (1.17, 1.06–1.29) but not in Pakistani (2.32, 2.15–2.50), Bangladeshi (1.47, 1.28–1.69), and Indian infants (1.24, 1.11–1.38). Ethnic variations in infant mortality differed significantly between term and preterm infants. At term, South Asian groups had higher risks which cannot be explained by sociodemographic characteristics. In preterm infants, adjustment for degree of prematurity (<28, 28–31, 32–33, 34–36 weeks) fully explained increased risks in Black but not Pakistani and Bangladeshi infants. Sensitivity analyses with further adjustment for small for gestational age, or excluding deaths due to congenital anomalies did not fully explain the excess risk in South Asian groups. Conclusions Higher infant mortality in South Asian and Black infants does not appear to be explained by sociodemographic characteristics. Higher proportions of very premature infants appear to explain increased risks in Black infants but not in South Asian groups. Strategies targeting the prevention and management of preterm birth in Black

[Do laymen understand information about hospital quality? An empirical verification using risk-adjusted mortality rates as an example].

PubMed

Sander, Uwe; Kolb, Benjamin; Taheri, Fatemeh; Patzelt, Christiane; Emmert, Martin

2017-11-01

The effect of public reporting to improve quality in healthcare is reduced by the limited intelligibility of information about the quality of healthcare providers. This may result in worse health-related choices especially for older people and those with lower levels of education. There is, as yet, little information as to whether laymen understand the concepts behind quality comparisons and if this comprehension is correlated with hospital choices. An instrument with 20 items was developed to analyze the intelligibility of five technical terms which were used in German hospital report cards to explain risk-adjusted death rates. Two online presentations of risk-adjusted death rates for five hospitals in the style of hospital report cards were developed. An online survey of 353 volunteers tested the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality rates and included an experimental hospital choice. The intelligibility of five technical terms was tested: risk-adjusted, actual and expected death rate, reference range and national average. The percentages of correct answers for the five technical terms were in the range of 75.0-60.2%. Between 23.8% and 5.1% of the respondents were not able to answer the question about the technical term itself. The least comprehensible technical terms were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". The intelligibility of the 20 items that were used to test the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality was between 89.5% and 14.2%. The two items that proved to be least comprehensible were related to the technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". For all five technical terms it was found that a better comprehension correlated significantly with better hospital choices. We found a better than average intelligibility for the technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and for "national average". The least understandable were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". Since the self

Decomposing Mortality Disparities in Urban and Rural U.S. Counties.

PubMed

Spencer, Jennifer C; Wheeler, Stephanie B; Rotter, Jason S; Holmes, George M

2018-05-30

To understand the role of county characteristics in the growing divide between rural and urban mortality from 1980 to 2010. Age-adjusted mortality rates for all U.S. counties from 1980 to 2010 were obtained from the CDC Compressed Mortality File and combined with county characteristics from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Area Health Resources File, and the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social research. We used Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition to assess the extent to which rural-urban mortality disparities are explained by observed county characteristics at each decade. Decomposition shows that, at each decade, differences in rural/urban characteristics are sufficient to explain differences in mortality. Furthermore, starting in 1990, rural counties have significantly lower predicted mortality than urban counties when given identical county characteristics. We find changes in the effect of characteristics on mortality, not the characteristics themselves, drive the growing mortality divide. Differences in economic and demographic characteristics between rural and urban counties largely explain the differences in age-adjusted mortality in any given year. Over time, the role these characteristics play in improving mortality has increased differentially for urban counties. As characteristics continue changing in importance as determinants of health, this divide may continue to widen. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Housing wealth and mortality: A register linkage study of the Finnish population.

PubMed

Laaksonen, Mikko; Tarkiainen, Lasse; Martikainen, Pekka

2009-09-01

In many countries home ownership is the main form of property and covers a major part of people's possessions. Since overall wealth is difficult to measure, many health studies have used home ownership as an indicator of wealth and material resources. However, most studies have measured housing wealth with a simple dichotomous measure of home ownership. We examined the associations between three different measures of housing wealth and overall mortality, separating subsidized renters and private renters, and using floor area and the number of rooms as measures of dwelling size. We further examined whether other socioeconomic factors, level of urbanisation of the region of residence, and household composition account for the found associations. Finns aged 35-79 years at the end of 1999 were followed up until the end of 2004. Data were drawn from various registers combined by Statistics Finland and linked with death records. The age-adjusted hazard ratio for mortality among subsidized renters compared to owner-occupiers was 2.26 in men and 1.87 in women. However, also private renters had clearly higher mortality than owner-occupiers, with the excess mortality of 92% in men and 61% in women. Both measures of home size were also strongly associated with mortality, with the excess risk of 1.7-3.0 in the lowest home size quintile compared to the highest. Adjusting for socioeconomic factors and mutually for all housing wealth measures considerably attenuated the associations. Further adjustment for urbanisation had no effect whereas adjustment for household size, marital status and living arrangements attenuated the associations of the two home size measures and mortality. However, a clear association remained between all housing wealth measures and mortality after all adjustments. Housing wealth summarises one's material circumstances over a prolonged period of time. Measures of housing wealth may therefore provide useful social classifications for studies on poor health

BMI at Age 17 Years and Diabetes Mortality in Midlife: A Nationwide Cohort of 2.3 Million Adolescents.

PubMed

Twig, Gilad; Tirosh, Amir; Leiba, Adi; Levine, Hagai; Ben-Ami Shor, Dana; Derazne, Estela; Haklai, Ziona; Goldberger, Nehama; Kasher-Meron, Michal; Yifrach, Dror; Gerstein, Hertzel C; Kark, Jeremy D

2016-11-01

The sequelae of increasing childhood obesity are of major concern. We assessed the association of BMI in late adolescence with diabetes mortality in midlife. The BMI values of 2,294,139 Israeli adolescents (age 17.4 ± 0.3 years), measured between 1967 and 2010, were grouped by U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention age/sex percentiles and by ordinary BMI values. The outcome, obtained by linkage with official national records, was death attributed to diabetes mellitus (DM) as the underlying cause. Cox proportional hazards models were applied. During 42,297,007 person-years of follow-up (median, 18.4 years; range <1-44 years) there were 481 deaths from DM (mean age at death, 50.6 ± 6.6 years). There was a graded increase in DM mortality evident from the 25th to the 49th BMI percentile group onward and from a BMI of 20.0-22.4 kg/m 2 onward. Overweight (85th to 94th percentiles) and obesity (the 95th percentile or higher), compared with the 5th to 24th percentiles, were associated with hazard ratios (HRs) of 8.0 (95% CI 5.7-11.3) and 17.2 (11.9-24.8) for DM mortality, respectively, after adjusting for sex, age, birth year, height, and sociodemographic variables. The HR for the 50th through 74th percentiles was 1.6 (95% CI 1.1-2.3). Findings persisted in a series of sensitivity analyses. The estimated population-attributable fraction for DM mortality, 31.2% (95% CI 26.6-36.1%) for the 1967-1977 prevalence of overweight and obesity at age 17, rose to a projected 52.1% (95% CI 46.4-57.4%) for the 2012-2014 prevalence. Adolescent BMI, including values within the currently accepted "normal" range, strongly predicts DM mortality up to the seventh decade. The increasing prevalence of childhood and adolescent overweight and obesity points to a substantially increased future adult DM burden. © 2016 by the American Diabetes Association.

Variations in mortality rates among Canadian neonatal intensive care units

PubMed Central

Sankaran, Koravangattu; Chien, Li-Yin; Walker, Robin; Seshia, Mary; Ohlsson, Arne; Lee, Shoo K.

2002-01-01

Background Most previous reports of variations in mortality rates for infants admitted to neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) have involved small groups of subpopulations, such as infants with very low birth weight. Our aim was to examine the incidence and causes of death and the risk-adjusted variation in mortality rates for a large group of infants of all birth weights admitted to Canadian NICUs. Methods We examined the deaths that occurred among all 19 265 infants admitted to 17 tertiary-level Canadian NICUs from January 1996 to October 1997. We used multivariate analysis to examine the risk factors associated with death and the variations in mortality rates, adjusting for risks in the baseline population, severity of illness on admission and whether the infant was outborn (born at a different hospital from the one where the NICU was located). Results The overall mortality rate was 4% (795 infants died). Forty percent of the deaths (n = 318) occurred within 2 days of NICU admission, 50% (n = 397) within 3 days and 75% (n = 596) within 12 days. The major conditions associated with death were gestational age less than 24 weeks (59 deaths [7%]), gestational age 24–28 weeks (325 deaths [41%]), outborn status (340 deaths [42%]), congenital anomalies (270 deaths [34%]), surgery (141 deaths [18%]), infection (108 deaths [14%]), hypoxic–ischemic encephalopathy (128 deaths [16%]) and small for gestational age (i.e., less than the third percentile) (77 deaths [10%]). There was significant variation in the risk-adjusted mortality rates (range 1.6% to 5.5%) among the 17 NICUs. Interpretation Most NICU deaths occurred within the first few days after admission. Preterm birth, outborn status and congenital anomalies were the conditions most frequently associated with death in the NICU. The significant variation in risk-adjusted mortality rates emphasizes the importance of risk adjustment for valid comparison of NICU outcomes. PMID:11826939

Leisure-time physical activity and all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Lahti, Jouni; Holstila, Ansku; Lahelma, Eero; Rahkonen, Ossi

2014-01-01

Physical inactivity is a major public health problem associated with increased mortality risk. It is, however, poorly understood whether vigorous physical activity is more beneficial for reducing mortality risk than activities of lower intensity. The aim of this study was to examine associations of the intensity and volume of leisure-time physical activity with all-cause mortality among middle-aged women and men while considering sociodemographic and health related factors as covariates. Questionnaire survey data collected in 2000-02 among 40-60-year-old employees of the City of Helsinki (N = 8960) were linked with register data on mortality (74% gave permission to the linkage) providing a mean follow-up time of 12-years. The analysis included 6429 respondents (79% women). The participants were classified into three groups according to intensity of physical activity: low moderate, high moderate and vigorous. The volume of physical activity was classified into three groups according to tertiles. Cox regression analysis was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause mortality. During the follow up 205 participants died. Leisure-time physical activity was associated with reduced risk of mortality. After adjusting for covariates the vigorous group (HR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.34-0.86) showed a reduced risk of mortality compared with the low moderate group whereas for the high moderate group the reductions in mortality risk (HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.48-1.08) were less clear. Adjusting for the volume of physical activity did not affect the point estimates. Higher volume of leisure-time physical activity was also associated with reduced mortality risk; however, adjusting for the covariates and the intensity of physical activity explained the differences. For healthy middle-aged women and men who engage in some physical activity vigorous exercise may provide further health benefits preventing premature deaths.

All-cancers mortality rates approaching diseases of the heart mortality rates as leading cause of death in Texas.

PubMed

Wyatt, Stephen W; Maynard, William Ryan; Risser, David R; Hakenewerth, Anne M; Williams, Melanie A; Garcia, Rebecca

2014-01-01

Diseases of the heart and malignant neoplasms (all-cancers) are the leading causes of death in the United States. The gap between the two has been closing in recent years. To assess the gap status in Texas and to establish a baseline to support evaluation efforts for the Cancer Prevention Research Institute of Texas, mortality data from 2006 to 2009 were analyzed. Immediate cause of death data in Texas for the years 2006-2009 were analyzed and rates developed by sex, race/ethnicity, and four metropolitan counties. Overall, for the years 2006-2009, the age-adjusted mortality rates (AARs) among Texas residents for both diseases of the heart and all-cancers decreased; however, during this time frame, there was greater improvement in diseases of the heart AARs as compared with all-cancers AARs. For the four large metropolitan counties of Bexar, Dallas, Harris, and Travis, data were analyzed by sex and race/ethnicity, and 11 of the 12 largest percent mortality rate decreases were for diseases of the heart. Age-adjusted mortality rates among Texas residents from diseases of the heart are showing improvement as compared with the rates for all-cancers.

Associations of marital status with mortality from all causes and mortality from cardiovascular disease in Japanese haemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Tanno, Kozo; Ohsawa, Masaki; Itai, Kazuyoshi; Kato, Karen; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Onoda, Toshiyuki; Sakata, Kiyomi; Okayama, Akira; Fujioka, Tomoaki

2013-04-01

Marital status is an important social factor associated with increased mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all causes. However, there has been no study on the association of marital status with mortality in haemodialysis patients. We analysed data from a 5-year prospective cohort study of 1064 Japanese haemodialysis patients aged 30 years or older. Marital status was classified into three groups: married, single and divorced/widowed. Cox's regression was used to estimate multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] for all-cause mortality and CVD mortality according to marital status after adjusting for age, sex, duration of haemodialysis, cause of renal failure, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein-cholesterol, albumin, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, co-morbid conditions, smoking, alcohol consumption, education levels and job status. Single patients had higher risks than married patients for mortality from all causes (HR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.06-2.16) and mortality from CVD (HR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.03-2.76), and divorced/widowed patients had a higher risk than married patients for mortality from CVD (HR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.15-2.60). After stratification by age, single patients aged 30-59 years had significantly higher risks for all-cause mortality and CVD mortality. The findings suggest that single status is a significant predictor for all-cause mortality and CVD mortality and that divorced/widowed status is a significant predictor for CVD mortality in haemodialysis patients.

Telomere length and mortality in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health study

PubMed Central

Pusceddu, Irene; Kleber, Marcus; Delgado, Graciela; Herrmann, Wolfgang; März, Winfried; Herrmann, Markus

2018-01-01

Introduction Short telomeres have been associated with adverse lifestyle factors, cardiovascular risk factors and age-related diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), myocardial infarction, atherosclerosis, hypertension, diabetes, and also with mortality. However, previous studies report conflicting results. Objectives The aim of the present study has been to investigate the involvement of telomere length in all-cause and CVD mortality in subjects hospitalized for diagnostic coronary angiography of the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. Methods Relative telomere length (RTL) was measured with a Q-PCR based method in 3,316 participants of the LURIC study. Age-corrected RTL was calculated as the ratio between RTL and age. Median follow-up was 9.9 years. Cox regression and Kaplan-Maier analyses were performed to evaluate the role of RTL for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Results RTL correlated negatively with age (r = -0.09; p<0.001). In surviving patients the correlation between age and RTL was statistically significant (r = -0.088; p<0.001), but not in patients who died during follow-up (r = -0.043; p = 0.20). Patients in quartiles 2–4 of RTL had a lower hazard ratio for all-cause mortality (HR:0.822; 95%CI 0.712–0.915; p = 0.008) and CVD-mortality (HR:0.836; 95%CI 0.722–0.969; p = 0.017) when compared to those in the 1st quartile. Adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors did not change this result, however additional adjustment for age attenuated this effect. Patients in the 4th quartile of age-corrected RTL compared to those in the 1st quartile had a lower hazard ratio for all-cause mortality, even with adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions The present study supports the hypothesis that short telomere length increases the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. Age appears to be an important co-variate that explains a substantial fraction of this effect. It remains unclear whether short

Association of Religious Participation With Mortality Among Chinese Old Adults

PubMed Central

Zeng, Yi; Gu, Danan; George, Linda K.

2012-01-01

This research examines the association of religious participation with mortality using a longitudinal data set collected from 9,017 oldest-old aged 85+ and 6,956 younger elders aged 65 to 84 in China in 2002 and 2005 and hazard models. Results show that adjusted for demographics, family/social support, and health practices, risk of dying was 24% (p < 0.001) and 12% (p < 0.01) lower among frequent and infrequent religious participants than among nonparticipants for all elders aged 65+. After baseline health was adjusted, the corresponding risk of dying declined to 21% (p < 0.001) and 6% (not significant), respectively. The authors also conducted hazard models analysis for men versus women and for young-old versus oldest-old, respectively, adjusted for single-year age; the authors found that gender differentials of association of religious participation with mortality among all elderly aged 65+ were not significant; association among young-old men was significantly stronger than among oldest-old men, but no such significant young-old versus oldest-old differentials in women were found. PMID:22448080

Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File

PubMed Central

Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Gavrilova, Natalia S.

2011-01-01

Accurate estimates of mortality at advanced ages are essential to improving forecasts of mortality and the population size of the oldest old age group. However, estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: (1) The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality (heterogeneity effect); (2) standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages and (3) ages of very old people may be exaggerated. One way of obtaining estimates of mortality at extreme ages is to pool together international records of persons surviving to extreme ages with subsequent efforts of strict age validation. This approach helps researchers to resolve the third of the above-mentioned problems but does not resolve the first two problems because of inevitable data heterogeneity when data for people belonging to different birth cohorts and countries are pooled together. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow (monthly) age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation are elaborated. This approach is based on data from the Social Security Administration Death Master File (DMF). Some birth cohorts covered by DMF could be studied by the method of extinct generations. Availability of month of birth and month of death information provides a unique opportunity to obtain hazard rate estimates for every month of age. Study of several single-year extinct birth cohorts shows that mortality trajectory at advanced ages follows the Gompertz law up to the ages 102–105 years without a noticeable deceleration. Earlier reports of mortality deceleration (deviation of mortality from the Gompertz law) at ages below 100 appear to be

Reduced mitochondrial SOD displays mortality characteristics reminiscent of natural aging

PubMed Central

Paul, Anirban; Belton, Amy; Nag, Sanjay; Martin, Ian; Grotewiel, Michael S.; Duttaroy, Atanu

2009-01-01

Manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD or SOD2) is a key mitochondrial enzymatic antioxidant. Arguably the most striking phenotype associated with complete loss of SOD2 in flies and mice is shortened life span. To further explore the role of SOD2 in protecting animals from aging and age-associated pathology, we generated a unique collection of Drosophila mutants that progressively reduce SOD2 expression and function. Mitochondrial aconitase activity was substantially reduced in the Sod2 mutants, suggesting that SOD2 normally ensures the functional capacity of mitochondria. Flies with severe reductions in SOD2 expression exhibited accelerated senescence of olfactory behavior as well as precocious neurodegeneration and DNA strand breakage in neurons. Furthermore, life span was progressively shortened and age-dependent mortality was increased in conjunction with reduced SOD2 expression, while initial mortality and developmental viability were unaffected. Interestingly, life span and age-dependent mortality varied exponentially with SOD2 activity, indicating that there might normally be a surplus of this enzyme for protecting animals from premature death. Our data support a model in which disruption of the protective effects of SOD2 on mitochondria manifests as profound changes in behavioral and demographic aging as well as exacerbated age-related pathology in the nervous system. PMID:18078670

Population health and the economy: Mortality and the Great Recession in Europe.

PubMed

Tapia Granados, José A; Ionides, Edward L

2017-12-01

We analyze the evolution of mortality-based health indicators in 27 European countries before and after the start of the Great Recession. We find that in the countries where the crisis has been particularly severe, mortality reductions in 2007-2010 were considerably bigger than in 2004-2007. Panel models adjusted for space-invariant and time-invariant factors show that an increase of 1 percentage point in the national unemployment rate is associated with a reduction of 0.5% (p < .001) in the rate of age-adjusted mortality. The pattern of mortality oscillating procyclically is found for total and sex-specific mortality, cause-specific mortality due to major causes of death, and mortality for ages 30-44 and 75 and over, but not for ages 0-14. Suicides appear increasing when the economy decelerates-countercyclically-but the evidence is weak. Results are robust to using different weights in the regression, applying nonlinear methods for detrending, expanding the sample, and using as business cycle indicator gross domestic product per capita or employment-to-population ratios rather than the unemployment rate. We conclude that in the European experience of the past 20 years, recessions, on average, have beneficial short-term effects on mortality of the adult population. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sleep duration, nap habits, and mortality in older persons.

PubMed

Cohen-Mansfield, Jiska; Perach, Rotem

2012-07-01

To examine the effect of nighttime sleep duration on mortality and the effect modification of daytime napping on the relationship between nighttime sleep duration and mortality in older persons. Prospective survey with 20-yr mortality follow-up. The Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Aging Study, a multidimensional assessment of a stratified random sample of the older Jewish population in Israel conducted between 1989-1992. There were 1,166 self-respondent, community-dwelling participants age 75-94 yr (mean, 83.40, standard deviation, 5.30). Nighttime sleep duration, napping, functioning (activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living, Orientation Memory Concentration Test), health, and mortality. Duration of nighttime sleep of more than 9 hr was significantly related to increased mortality in comparison with sleeping 7-9 hr (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.31, P < 0.01) after adjusting for demographic, health, and function variables, whereas for short nighttime sleep of fewer than 7 hr mortality did not differ from that of 7-9 hr of sleep. For those who nap, sleeping more than 9 hr per night significantly increased mortality risk (HR = 1.385, P < 0.05) and shorter nighttime sleep reduced mortality significantly in the unadjusted model (HR = 0.71, P < 0.001) but only approached significance in the fully adjusted model (HR = 0.82, P = 0.054). For those who do not or sometimes nap, a short amount of sleep appears to be harmful up to age 84 yr and may be protective thereafter (HR = 1.51, confidence interval [CI] = 1.13-2.02, P < 0.01; HR = 0.76, CI = 0.49-1.17, in the fully adjusted model, respectively). The findings are novel in demonstrating the protective effect of short nighttime sleep duration in individuals who take daily naps and suggest that the examination of the effect of sleep needs to take into account sleep duration per 24 hr, rather than daytime napping or nighttime sleep per se. Cohen-Mansfield J; Perach R. Sleep duration, nap habits, and

Morbidity and mortality according to age following gastrectomy for gastric cancer.

PubMed

Nelen, S D; Bosscha, K; Lemmens, V E P P; Hartgrink, H H; Verhoeven, R H A; de Wilt, J H W

2018-04-23

This study investigated age-related differences in surgically treated patients with gastric cancer, and aimed to identify factors associated with outcome. Data from the Dutch Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Audit were used. All patients with non-cardia gastric cancer registered between 2011 and 2015 who underwent surgery were selected. Patients were analysed by age group (less than 70 years versus 70 years or more). Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the influence of clinicopathological factors on morbidity and mortality. A total of 1109 patients younger than 70 years and 1206 aged 70 years or more were included. Patients aged at least 70 years had more perioperative or postoperative complications (41·2 versus 32·5 per cent; P < 0·001) and a higher 30-day mortality rate (7·9 versus 3·2 per cent; P < 0·001) than those younger than 70 years. In multivariable analysis, age 70 years or more was associated with a higher risk of complications (odds ratio 1·29, 95 per cent c.i. 1·05 to 1·59). Postoperative mortality was not significantly associated with age. In the entire cohort, morbidity and mortality were influenced most by ASA grade, neoadjuvant chemotherapy and type of resection. ASA grade, neoadjuvant chemotherapy and type of resection are independent predictors of morbidity and death in patients with gastric cancer, irrespective of age. © 2018 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Heterogeneity in the Strehler-Mildvan general theory of mortality and aging.

PubMed

Zheng, Hui; Yang, Yang; Land, Kenneth C

2011-02-01

This study examines and further develops the classic Strehler-Mildvan (SM) general theory of mortality and aging. Three predictions from the SM theory are tested by examining the age dependence of mortality patterns for 42 countries (including developed and developing countries) over the period 1955-2003. By applying finite mixture regression models, principal component analysis, and random-effects panel regression models, we find that (1) the negative correlation between the initial adulthood mortality rate and the rate of increase in mortality with age derived in the SM theory exists but is not constant; (2) within the SM framework, the implied age of expected zero vitality (expected maximum survival age) also is variable over time; (3) longevity trajectories are not homogeneous among the countries; (4) Central American and Southeast Asian countries have higher expected age of zero vitality than other countries in spite of relatively disadvantageous national ecological systems; (5) within the group of Central American and Southeast Asian countries, a more disadvantageous national ecological system is associated with a higher expected age of zero vitality; and (6) larger agricultural and food productivities, higher labor participation rates, higher percentages of population living in urban areas, and larger GDP per capita and GDP per unit of energy use are important beneficial national ecological system factors that can promote survival. These findings indicate that the SM theory needs to be generalized to incorporate heterogeneity among human populations.

The relationship of age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity ındex and diurnal variation of blood pressure.

PubMed

Kalaycı, Belma; Erten, Yunus Turgay; Akgün, Tunahan; Karabag, Turgut; Kokturk, Furuzan

2018-03-05

Charlson Comorbidity index (CCI) is a scoring system to predict prognosis and mortality. It exhibits better utility when combined with age, age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (ACCI). The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between ACCI and diurnal variation of blood pressure parameters in hypertensive patients and normotensive patients. We enrolled 236 patients. All patients underwent a 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) for evaluation of dipper or non-dipper pattern. We searched the correlation between ACCI and dipper or non-dipper pattern and other ABPM parameters. To further investigate the role of these parameters in predicting survival, a multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazard model was performed. 167 patients were in the hypertensive group (87 patients in non-dipper status) and 69 patients were in the normotensive group (41 patients in non-dipper status) of all study patients. We found a significant difference and negative correlation between AACI and 24-h diastolic blood pressure (DBP), awake DBP, awake mean blood pressure (MBP) and 24-h MBP and awake systolic blood pressure(SBP). Night decrease ratio of blood pressure had also a negative correlation with ACCI (p = 0.003, r = -0.233). However, we found a relationship with non-dipper pattern and ACCI in the hypertensive patients (p = 0.050). In multivariate Cox analysis sleep MBP was found related to mortality like ACCI (p = 0.023, HR = 1.086, %95 CI 1.012-1.165) Conclusion: ACCI was statistically significantly higher in non-dipper hypertensive patients than dipper hypertensive patients while ACCI had a negative correlation with blood pressure. Sleep MBP may predict mortality.

Trends in oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancer mortality rates in Spain, 1952–2006: an age-period-cohort analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Although oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors, no comparative analysis of mortality rate trends in these illnesses has been undertaken in Spain. This study aimed to evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on the mortality rates of these tumours. Methods Specific and age-adjusted mortality rates by tumour and sex were analysed. Age-period-cohort log-linear models were fitted separately for each tumour and sex, and segmented regression models were used to detect changes in period- and cohort-effect curvatures. Results Among men, the period-effect curvatures for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers displayed a mortality trend that rose until 1995 and then declined. Among women, oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality increased throughout the study period whereas oesophageal cancer mortality decreased after 1970. Stomach cancer mortality decreased in both sexes from 1965 onwards. Lastly, the cohort-effect curvature showed a certain degree of similarity for all three tumours in both sexes, which was greater among oral cavity, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers, with a change point in evidence, after which risk of death increased in cohorts born from the 1910-1920s onwards and decreased among the 1950–1960 cohorts and successive generations. This latter feature was likewise observed for stomach cancer. Conclusions While the similarities of the cohort effects in oral cavity/pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric tumours support the implication of shared risk factors, the more marked changes in cohort-effect curvature for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer could be due to the greater influence of some risk factors in their aetiology, such as smoking and alcohol consumption. The increase in oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality in women deserves further study. PMID:24725381

Mortality among patients with hypertension from 1995 to 2005: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Tu, Karen; Chen, Zhongliang; Lipscombe, Lorraine L.

2008-01-01

Background We have reported that the prevalence of diagnosed hypertension increased by 60% from 1995 to 2005 in Ontario. In the present study, we asked whether this increase is explained by a decrease in the mortality rate. Methods We performed a population-based cohort study using linked administrative data for Ontario, a Canadian province with over 12 million residents. We identified prevalent cases of hypertension using a validated case-definition algorithm for hypertension, and we examined trends in mortality from 1995 to 2005 among adults aged 20 years and older with hypertension. Results The age-and sex-adjusted mortality among patients with hypertension decreased from 11.3 per 1000 people in 1995 to 9.6 per 1000 in 2005 (p < 0.001), which is a relative reduction of 15.5%. We found that the relative decrease in age-adjusted mortality was higher among men than among women (–22.2% v. –7.3%, p < 0.001). Interpretation Mortality rates among patients with hypertension have decreased. Along with an increasing incidence, decreased mortality rates may contribute to the increased prevalence of diagnosed hypertension. Sex-related discrepancies in the reduction of mortality warrant further investigation. PMID:18490639

Mortality among patients with hypertension from 1995 to 2005: a population-based study.

PubMed

Tu, Karen; Chen, Zhongliang; Lipscombe, Lorraine L

2008-05-20

We have reported that the prevalence of diagnosed hypertension increased by 60% from 1995 to 2005 in Ontario. In the present study, we asked whether this increase is explained by a decrease in the mortality rate. We performed a population-based cohort study using linked administrative data for Ontario, a Canadian province with over 12 million residents. We identified prevalent cases of hypertension using a validated case-definition algorithm for hypertension, and we examined trends in mortality from 1995 to 2005 among adults aged 20 years and older with hypertension. The age- and sex-adjusted mortality among patients with hypertension decreased from 11.3 per 1000 people in 1995 to 9.6 per 1000 in 2005 (p < 0.001), which is a relative reduction of 15.5%. We found that the relative decrease in age-adjusted mortality was higher among men than among women (-22.2% v. -7.3%, p < 0.001). Mortality rates among patients with hypertension have decreased. Along with an increasing incidence, decreased mortality rates may contribute to the increased prevalence of diagnosed hypertension. Sex-related discrepancies in the reduction of mortality warrant further investigation.

Increased mortality risk in women with depression and diabetes mellitus

PubMed Central

Pan, An; Lucas, Michel; Sun, Qi; van Dam, Rob M.; Franco, Oscar H.; Willett, Walter C.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Rexrode, Kathryn M.; Ascherio, Alberto; Hu, Frank B.

2011-01-01

Context Both depression and diabetes have been associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) mortality. However, data evaluating the joint effects of these two conditions on mortality are sparse. Objectives To evaluate the individual and joint effects of depression and diabetes on all-cause and CVD mortality in a prospective cohort study. Design, Settings and Participants A total of 78282 female participants in the Nurses' Health Study aged 54-79 years at baseline in 2000 were followed until 2006. Depression was defined as having self-reported diagnosed depression, treatment with antidepressant medications, or a score indicating severe depressive symptomatology, i.e., a five-item Mental Health Index score ≤52. Self-reported type 2 diabetes was confirmed using a supplementary questionnaire. Main outcome measures All-cause and CVD-specific mortality. Results During 6 years of follow-up (433066 person-years), 4654 deaths were documented, including 979 deaths from CVD. Compared to participants without either condition, the age-adjusted relative risks (95% confidence interval, CI) for all-cause mortality were 1.76 (1.64-1.89) for women with depression only, 1.71 (1.54-1.89) for individuals with diabetes only, and 3.11 (2.70-3.58) for those with both conditions. The corresponding age-adjusted relative risks of CVD mortality were 1.81 (1.54-2.13), 2.67 (2.20-3.23), and 5.38 (4.19-6.91), respectively. These associations were attenuated after multivariate adjustment for other demographic variables, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, and major comorbidities (including hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, heart diseases, stroke and cancer) but remained significant, with the highest relative risks for all-cause and CVD mortality found in those with both conditions (2.07 [95% CI, 1.79-2.40] and 2.72 [95% CI, 2.09-3.54], respectively). Furthermore, the combination of depression with a long duration of diabetes

Mortality of breast cancer in Taiwan, 1971-2010: temporal changes and an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Ho, M-L; Hsiao, Y-H; Su, S-Y; Chou, M-C; Liaw, Y-P

2015-01-01

The current paper describes the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer mortality in Taiwan. Female breast cancer mortality data were collected from the Taiwan death registries for 1971-2010. The annual percentage changes, age- standardised mortality rates (ASMR) and age-period-cohort model were calculated. The mortality rates increased with advancing age groups when fixing the period. The percentage change in the breast cancer mortality rate increased from 54.79% at aged 20-44 years, to 149.78% in those aged 45-64 years (between 1971-75 and 2006-10). The mortality rates in the 45-64 age group increased steadily from 1971 to 1975 and 2006-10. The 1951 birth cohorts (actual birth cohort; 1947-55) showed peak mortalities in both the 50-54 and 45-49 age groups. We found that the 1951 birth cohorts had the greatest mortality risk from breast cancer. This might be attributed to the DDT that was used in large amounts to prevent deaths from malaria in Taiwan. However, future researches require DDT data to evaluate the association between breast cancer and DDT use.

Age-period-cohort analysis of infectious disease mortality in urban-rural China, 1990-2010.

PubMed

Li, Zhi; Wang, Peigang; Gao, Ge; Xu, Chunling; Chen, Xinguang

2016-03-31

Although a number of studies on infectious disease trends in China exist, these studies have not distinguished the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously. Here, we analyze infectious disease mortality trends among urban and rural residents in China and distinguish the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously. Infectious disease mortality rates (1990-2010) of urban and rural residents (5-84 years old) were obtained from the China Health Statistical Yearbook and analyzed with an age-period-cohort (APC) model based on Intrinsic Estimator (IE). Infectious disease mortality is relatively high at age group 5-9, reaches a minimum in adolescence (age group 10-19), then rises with age, with the growth rate gradually slowing down from approximately age 75. From 1990 to 2010, except for a slight rise among urban residents from 2000 to 2005, the mortality of Chinese residents experienced a substantial decline, though at a slower pace from 2005 to 2010. In contrast to the urban residents, rural residents experienced a rapid decline in mortality during 2000 to 2005. The mortality gap between urban and rural residents substantially narrowed during this period. Overall, later birth cohorts experienced lower infectious disease mortality risk. From the 1906-1910 to the 1941-1945 birth cohorts, the decrease of mortality among urban residents was significantly faster than that of subsequent birth cohorts and rural counterparts. With the rapid aging of the Chinese population, the prevention and control of infectious disease in elderly people will present greater challenges. From 1990 to 2010, the infectious disease mortality of Chinese residents and the urban-rural disparity have experienced substantial declines. However, the re-emergence of previously prevalent diseases and the emergence of new infectious diseases created new challenges. It is necessary to further strengthen screening, immunization, and treatment for the elderly and for older cohorts at high risk.

Long-Term Effects of Stress Reduction on Mortality in Persons ≥55 Years of Age With Systemic Hypertension

PubMed Central

Schneider, Robert H.; Alexander, Charles N.; Staggers, Frank; Rainforth, Maxwell; Salerno, John W.; Hartz, Arthur; Arndt, Stephen; Barnes, Vernon A.; Nidich, Sanford I.

2005-01-01

Psychosocial stress contributes to high blood pressure and subsequent cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Previous controlled studies have associated decreasing stress with the Transcendental Meditation (TM) program with lower blood pressure. The objective of the present study was to evaluate, over the long term, all-cause and cause-specific mortality in older subjects who had high blood pressure and who participated in randomized controlled trials that included the TM program and other behavioral stress-decreasing interventions. Patient data were pooled from 2 published randomized controlled trials that compared TM, other behavioral interventions, and usual therapy for high blood pressure. There were 202 subjects, including 77 whites (mean age 81 years) and 125 African-American (mean age 66 years) men and women. In these studies, average baseline blood pressure was in the prehypertensive or stage I hypertension range. Follow-up of vital status and cause of death over a maximum of 18.8 years was determined from the National Death Index. Survival analysis was used to compare intervention groups on mortality rates after adjusting for study location. Mean follow-up was 7.6 ± 3.5 years. Compared with combined controls, the TM group showed a 23% decrease in the primary outcome of all-cause mortality after maximum follow-up (relative risk 0.77, p = 0.039). Secondary analyses showed a 30% decrease in the rate of cardiovascular mortality (relative risk 0.70, p = 0.045) and a 49% decrease in the rate of mortality due to cancer (relative risk 0.49, p = 0.16) in the TM group compared with combined controls. These results suggest that a specific stress-decreasing approach used in the prevention and control of high blood pressure, such as the TM program, may contribute to decreased mortality from all causes and cardiovascular disease in older subjects who have systemic hypertension. PMID:15842971

Symptoms of depression and all-cause mortality in farmers, a cohort study: the HUNT study, Norway

PubMed Central

Letnes, Jon Magne; Hilt, Bjørn; Bjørngaard, Johan Håkon; Krokstad, Steinar

2016-01-01

Objectives To explore all-cause mortality and the association between symptoms of depression and all-cause mortality in farmers compared with other occupational groups, using a prospective cohort design. Methods We included adult participants with a known occupation from the second wave of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (Helseundersøkelsen i Nord-Trøndelag 2 (HUNT2) 1995–1997), Norway. Complete information on emigration and death from all causes was obtained from the National Registries. We used the depression subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) to measure symptoms of depression. We compared farmers to 4 other occupational groups. Our baseline study population comprised 32 618 participants. Statistical analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazards models. Results The estimated mortality risk in farmers was lower than in all other occupations combined, with a sex and age-adjusted HR (0.91, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.00). However, farmers had an 11% increased age-adjusted and sex-adjusted mortality risk compared with the highest ranked socioeconomic group (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.25). In farmers, symptoms of depression were associated with a 13% increase in sex-adjusted and age-adjusted mortality risk (HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.45). Compared with other occupations this was the lowest HR, also after adjusting for education, marital status, long-lasting limiting somatic illness and lifestyle factors (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.39). Conclusions Farmers had lower all-cause mortality compared with the other occupational groups combined. Symptoms of depression were associated with an increased mortality risk in farmers, but the risk increase was smaller compared with the other occupational groups. PMID:27188811

Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

IMPORTANCE The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689 300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960–2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128 843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499 808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006–2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates. EXPOSURES A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTS In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95%CI, 1.8–2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95%CI, 2.0–2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95%CI, 1.9–2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95%CI, 3.3–4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95%CI, 3.5–4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95%CI, 3.1–4.0) in those with both stroke and

Examining mortality risk and rate of ageing among Polish Olympic athletes: a survival follow-up from 1924 to 2012.

PubMed

Lin, Yuhui; Gajewski, Antoni; Poznańska, Anna

2016-04-18

Population-based studies have shown that an active lifestyle reduces mortality risk. Therefore, it has been a longstanding belief that individuals who engage in frequent exercise will experience a slower rate of ageing. It is uncertain whether this widely-accepted assumption holds for intense wear-and-tear. Here, using the 88 years survival follow-up data of Polish Olympic athletes, we report for the first time on whether frequent exercise alters the rate of ageing. Longitudinal survival data of male elite Polish athletes who participated in the Olympic Games from year 1924 to 2010 were used. Deaths occurring before the end of World War II were excluded for reliable estimates. Recruited male elite athletes N=1273 were preassigned to two categorical birth cohorts--Cohort I 1890-1919; Cohort II 1920-1959--and a parametric frailty survival analysis was conducted. An event-history analysis was also conducted to adjust for medical improvements from year 1920 onwards: Cohort II. Our findings suggest (1) in Cohort I, for every threefold reduction in mortality risk, the rate of ageing decelerates by 1%; (2) socioeconomic transitions and interventions contribute to a reduction in mortality risk of 29% for the general population and 50% for Olympic athletes; (3) an optimum benefit gained for reducing the rate of ageing from competitive sports (Cohort I 0.086 (95% CI 0.047 to 0.157) and Cohort II 0.085 (95% CI 0.050 to 0.144)). This study further suggests that intensive physical training during youth should be considered as a factor to improve ageing and mortality risk parameters. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Measles mortality reduction contributes substantially to reduction of all cause mortality among children less than five years of age, 1990-2008.

PubMed

van den Ent, Maya M V X; Brown, David W; Hoekstra, Edward J; Christie, Athalia; Cochi, Stephen L

2011-07-01

The Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) to reduce mortality in children aged <5 years by two-thirds from 1990 to 2015 has made substantial progress. We describe the contribution of measles mortality reduction efforts, including those spearheaded by the Measles Initiative (launched in 2001, the Measles Initiative is an international partnership committed to reducing measles deaths worldwide and is led by the American Red Cross, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, UNICEF, the United Nations Foundation, and the World Health Organization). We used published data to assess the effect of measles mortality reduction on overall and disease-specific global mortality rates among children aged <5 years by reviewing the results from studies with the best estimates on causes of deaths in children aged 0-59 months. The estimated measles-related mortality among children aged <5 years worldwide decreased from 872,000 deaths in 1990 to 556,000 in 2001 (36% reduction) and to 118,000 in 2008 (86% reduction). All-cause mortality in this age group decreased from >12 million in 1990 to 10.6 million in 2001 (13% reduction) and to 8.8 million in 2008 (28% reduction). Measles accounted for about 7% of deaths in this age group in 1990 and 1% in 2008, equal to 23% of the global reduction in all-cause mortality in this age group from 1990 to 2008. Aggressive efforts to prevent measles have led to this remarkable reduction in measles deaths. The current funding gap and insufficient political commitment for measles control jeopardizes these achievements and presents a substantial risk to achieving MDG4. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.

Physical Activity in Advanced Age: Physical Activity, Function, and Mortality in Advanced Age: A Longitudinal Follow Up (LiLACS NZ).

PubMed

Mace Firebaugh, Casey; Moyes, Simon; Jatrana, Santosh; Rolleston, Anna; Kerse, Ngaire

2018-01-18

The relationship between physical activity, function, and mortality is not established in advanced age. Physical activity, function, and mortality were followed in a cohort of Māori and non-Māori adults living in advanced age for a period of six years. Generalised Linear regression models were used to analyse the association between physical activity and NEADL while Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and Cox-proportional hazard models were used to assess the association between the physical activity and mortality. The Hazard Ratio for mortality for those in the least active physical activity quartile was 4.1 for Māori and 1.8 for non- Māori compared to the most active physical activity quartile. There was an inverse relationship between physical activity and mortality, with lower hazard ratios for mortality at all levels of physical activity. Higher levels of physical activity were associated with lower mortality and higher functional status in advanced aged adults.

The Hispanic mortality advantage and ethnic misclassification on US death certificates.

PubMed

Arias, Elizabeth; Eschbach, Karl; Schauman, William S; Backlund, Eric L; Sorlie, Paul D

2010-04-01

We tested the data artifact hypothesis regarding the Hispanic mortality advantage by investigating whether and to what degree this advantage is explained by Hispanic origin misclassification on US death certificates. We used the National Longitudinal Mortality Study, which links Current Population Survey records to death certificates for 1979 through 1998, to estimate the sensitivity, specificity, and net ascertainment of Hispanic ethnicity on death certificates compared with survey classifications. Using national vital statistics mortality data, we estimated Hispanic age-specific and age-adjusted death rates, which were uncorrected and corrected for death certificate misclassification, and produced death rate ratios comparing the Hispanic with the non-Hispanic White population. Hispanic origin reporting on death certificates in the United States is reasonably good. The net ascertainment of Hispanic origin is just 5% higher on survey records than on death certificates. Corrected age-adjusted death rates for Hispanics are lower than those for the non-Hispanic White population by close to 20%. The Hispanic mortality paradox is not explained by an incongruence between ethnic classification in vital registration and population data systems.

Implications of prescription drug monitoring and medical cannabis legislation on opioid overdose mortality.

PubMed

Phillips, Elyse; Gazmararian, Julie

To determine whether specific state legislation has an effect on opioid overdose mortality rates compared to states without those types of legislation. Ecological study estimating opioid-related mortality in states with and without a prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP) and/or medical cannabis legislation. Opioid-related mortality rates for 50 states and Washington DC from 2011 to 2014 were obtained from CDC WONDER. PDMP data were obtained from the National Alliance for Model State Drug Laws, and data on medical cannabis legislation from the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws. The relationship between PDMPs with mandatory access provisions, medical cannabis legislation, and opioid-related mortality rates. Multivariate repeated measures analysis performed with software and services. Medical cannabis laws were associated with an increase of 21.7 percent in mean age-adjusted opioid-related mortality (p < 0.0001). PDMPs were associated with an increase of 11.4 percent in mean age-adjusted opioid-related mortality (p = 0.005). For every additional year since enactment, mean age-adjusted opioid-related mortality rate increased by 1.7 percent in states with medical cannabis (p = 0.049) and 5.8 percent for states with a PDMP (p = 0.005). Interaction between both types of legislation produced a borderline significant decrease of 10.1 percent (p = 0.055). For every year states had both types of legislation, interaction resulted in a 0.6 percent decrease in rate (p = 0.013). When combined with the availability of medical cannabis as an alternative analgesic therapy, PDMPs may be more effective at decreasing opioid-related mortality.

The role of heat shock protein 70 in mediating age-dependent mortality in sepsis.

PubMed

McConnell, Kevin W; Fox, Amy C; Clark, Andrew T; Chang, Nai-Yuan Nicholas; Dominguez, Jessica A; Farris, Alton B; Buchman, Timothy G; Hunt, Clayton R; Coopersmith, Craig M

2011-03-15

Sepsis is primarily a disease of the aged, with increased incidence and mortality occurring in aged hosts. Heat shock protein (HSP) 70 plays an important role in both healthy aging and the stress response to injury. The purpose of this study was to determine the role of HSP70 in mediating mortality and the host inflammatory response in aged septic hosts. Sepsis was induced in both young (6- to 12-wk-old) and aged (16- to 17-mo-old) HSP70(-/-) and wild-type (WT) mice to determine whether HSP70 modulated outcome in an age-dependent fashion. Young HSP70(-/-) and WT mice subjected to cecal ligation and puncture, Pseudomonas aeruginosa pneumonia, or Streptococcus pneumoniae pneumonia had no differences in mortality, suggesting HSP70 does not mediate survival in young septic hosts. In contrast, mortality was higher in aged HSP70(-/-) mice than aged WT mice subjected to cecal ligation and puncture (p = 0.01), suggesting HSP70 mediates mortality in sepsis in an age-dependent fashion. Compared with WT mice, aged septic HSP70(-/-) mice had increased gut epithelial apoptosis and pulmonary inflammation. In addition, HSP70(-/-) mice had increased systemic levels of TNF-α, IL-6, IL-10, and IL-1β compared with WT mice. These data demonstrate that HSP70 is a key determinant of mortality in aged, but not young hosts in sepsis. HSP70 may play a protective role in an age-dependent response to sepsis by preventing excessive gut apoptosis and both pulmonary and systemic inflammation.

Asthma Mortality Among Persons Aged 15-64 Years, by Industry and Occupation - United States, 1999-2016.

PubMed

Patel, Opal; Syamlal, Girija; Wood, John; Dodd, Katelynn E; Mazurek, Jacek M

2018-01-19

In 2015, an estimated 18.4 million U.S. adults had current asthma, and 3,396 adult asthma deaths were reported (1). An estimated 11%-21% of asthma deaths might be attributable to occupational exposures (2). To describe asthma mortality among persons aged 15-64 years,* CDC analyzed multiple cause-of-death data † for 1999-2016 and industry and occupation information collected from 26 states § for the years 1999, 2003, 2004, and 2007-2012. Proportionate mortality ratios (PMRs) ¶ for asthma among persons aged 15-64 years were calculated. During 1999-2016, a total of 14,296 (42.9%) asthma deaths occurred among males and 19,011 (57.1%) occurred among females. Based on an estimate that 11%-21% of asthma deaths might be related to occupational exposures, during this 18-year period, 1,573-3,002 asthma deaths in males and 2,091-3,992 deaths in females might have resulted from occupational exposures. Some of these deaths might have been averted by instituting measures to prevent potential workplace exposures. The annual age-adjusted asthma death rate** per 1 million persons aged 15-64 years declined from 13.59 in 1999 to 9.34 in 2016 (p<0.001) among females, and from 9.14 (1999) to 7.78 (2016) (p<0.05) among males. The highest significantly elevated asthma PMRs for males were for those in the food, beverage, and tobacco products manufacturing industry (1.82) and for females were for those in the social assistance industry (1.35) and those in community and social services occupations (1.46). Elevated asthma mortality among workers in certain industries and occupations underscores the importance of optimal asthma management and identification and prevention of potential workplace exposures.

Average blood pressure and cardiovascular disease-related mortality in middle-aged women.

PubMed

van Trijp, Marijke J C A; Grobbee, Diederick E; Peeters, Petra H M; van Der Schouw, Yvonne T; Bots, Michiel L

2005-02-01

The aim of this study was to assess which average blood pressure (BP) component (ie, systolic BP [SBP], diastolic BP [DBP], pulse pressure [PP], or mean arterial pressure [MAP]), is most strongly related to cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality and to evaluate whether the strength of the relation varies with follow-up time. This was a prospective cohort study. The studied cohort comprised a population of postmenopausal women (n = 7813) between the ages of 49 and 66 years of age, of whom four BP measurements were available, obtained at four different time points. Average BP, ie, the mean of the four measurements divided by the standard deviation, was entered in Cox proportional hazards models to facilitate direct comparison. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated adjusted for age, body mass index, presence of diabetes mellitus, smoking habit, and use of BP-lowering medication. In addition analyses were repeated in strata of follow-up time (10, 15, and 20 years). During a mean follow-up of 13.1 years, 463 CVD-related deaths occurred. For SBP and MAP the highest HR for CVD mortality were found; however, the confidence intervals (CI) overlapped (SBP: HR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.30 to 1.58; DBP: HR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.23 to 1.50; PP: HR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.19 to 1.42; MAP: HR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.30 to 1.58). Analyses in strata of follow-up time did not show a difference in strength of the associations with increasing follow-up time. In this prospective follow-up study of postmenopausal women, SBP and MAP seemed to be strongest related with CVD-related death; however the CI of the HR overlapped.

Chronic Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Mountaintop Mining Areas of Central Appalachian States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Esch, Laura; Hendryx, Michael

2011-01-01

Purpose: To determine if chronic cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates are higher among residents of mountaintop mining (MTM) areas compared to mining and nonmining areas, and to examine the association between greater levels of MTM surface mining and CVD mortality. Methods: Age-adjusted chronic CVD mortality rates from 1999 to 2006 for…

Gender-specific mortality in DTP-IPV- and MMR±MenC-eligible age groups to determine possible sex-differential effects of vaccination: an observational study.

PubMed

Schurink-van't Klooster, Tessa M; Knol, Mirjam J; de Melker, Hester E; van der Sande, Marianne A B

2015-03-24

Several studies suggested that vaccines could have non-specific effects on mortality depending on the type of vaccine. Non-specific effects seem to be different in boys and girls. In this study we want to investigate whether there are differences in gender-specific mortality among Dutch children according to the last vaccination received. We tested the hypothesis that the mortality rate ratio for girls versus boys is more favourable for girls following MMR±MenC vaccination (from 14 months of age) compared with the ratio following DTP-IPV vaccination (2-13 months of age). Secondarily, we investigated whether there were gender-specific changes in mortality following booster vaccination at 4 years of age. This observational study included all Dutch children aged 0-11 years from 2000 until 2011. Age groups were classified according to the last vaccination offered. The mortality rates for all natural causes of death were calculated by gender and age group. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were computed using a multivariable Poisson analysis to compare mortality in boys and girls across different age groups. The study population consisted of 6,261,472 children. During the study period, 14,038 children (0.22%) died, 91% of which were attributed to a known natural cause of death. The mortality rate for natural causes was higher among boys than girls in all age groups. Adjusted IRRs for girls compared with boys ranged between 0.81 (95% CI 0.74-0.89) and 0.91 (95% CI 0.77-1.07) over the age groups. The IRR did not significantly differ between all vaccine-related age groups (p=0.723), between children 2-13 months (following DTP-IPV vaccination) and 14 months-3 years (following MMR±MenC vaccination) (p=0.493) and between children 14 months-3 years and 4-8 years old (following DTP-IPV vaccination) (p=0.868). In the Netherlands, a high income country, no differences in gender-specific mortality related to the type of last vaccination received were observed in DTP-IPV- and MMR�

Small for gestational age and perinatal mortality at term: An audit in a Dutch national cohort study.

PubMed

Eskes, Martine; Waelput, Adja J M; Scherjon, Sicco A; Bergman, Klasien A; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Ravelli, Anita C J

2017-08-01

To assess the underlying risk factors for perinatal mortality in term born small for gestational age infants. We performed a population based nationwide cohort study in the Netherlands of 465,532 term born infants from January 2010 to January 2013. Logistic regression analyses were performed. Also audit results were studied for detailed care information. We studied 162 small for gestational age infants who died in the perinatal period. Risk factors were: gestational age at 37completed weeks (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 2.6, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.6-4.3), male gender (aOR 1.4, 95% CI 1.01-1.9), South Asian ethnicity (aOR 3.6, 95% CI 1.6-8.4), African (aOR 3.5, 95% CI 1.9-6.5) and other non-Western ethnicity (aOR 1.9, CI 1.2-3.1). At 37 completed weeks gestation audit results showed that 26% of the women smoked, 91% were boys and in all but one case death occurred before birth. In 61% of all deceased SGA infants born at 37 completed weeks gestation referral from primary care by independent midwives to the obstetrician took place because of antepartum death before labor. Gestational age of 37 completed weeks, male gender, South Asian, African or other non-Western ethnicity and smoking are associated with perinatal mortality in SGA infants. These risk factors concern the complete term population starting at 37 weeks or even earlier. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to develop accurate diagnostic tests to screen for SGA before 36 weeks gestation to prevent perinatal mortality at term in SGA infants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forecasting selected specific age mortality rate of Malaysia by using Lee-Carter model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukri Kamaruddin, Halim; Ismail, Noriszura

2018-03-01

Observing mortality pattern and trend is an important subject for any country to maintain a good social-economy in the next projection years. The declining in mortality trend gives a good impression of what a government has done towards macro citizen in one nation. Selecting a particular mortality model can be a tricky based on the approached method adapting. Lee-Carter model is adapted because of its simplicity and reliability of the outcome results with approach of regression. Implementation of Lee-Carter in finding a fitted model and hence its projection has been used worldwide in most of mortality research in developed countries. This paper studies the mortality pattern of Malaysia in the past by using original model of Lee-Carter (1992) and hence its cross-sectional observation for a single age. The data is indexed by age of death and year of death from 1984 to 2012, in which are supplied by Department of Statistics Malaysia. The results are modelled by using RStudio and the keen analysis will focus on the trend and projection of mortality rate and age specific mortality rate in the future. This paper can be extended to different variants extensions of Lee-Carter or any stochastic mortality tool by using Malaysia mortality experience as a centre of the main issue.

Did the Great Recession affect mortality rates in the metropolitan United States? Effects on mortality by age, gender and cause of death.

PubMed

Strumpf, Erin C; Charters, Thomas J; Harper, Sam; Nandi, Arijit

2017-09-01

Mortality rates generally decline during economic recessions in high-income countries, however gaps remain in our understanding of the underlying mechanisms. This study estimates the impacts of increases in unemployment rates on both all-cause and cause-specific mortality across U.S. metropolitan regions during the Great Recession. We estimate the effects of economic conditions during the recent and severe recessionary period on mortality, including differences by age and gender subgroups, using fixed effects regression models. We identify a plausibly causal effect by isolating the impacts of within-metropolitan area changes in unemployment rates and controlling for common temporal trends. We aggregated vital statistics, population, and unemployment data at the area-month-year-age-gender-race level, yielding 527,040 observations across 366 metropolitan areas, 2005-2010. We estimate that a one percentage point increase in the metropolitan area unemployment rate was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality of 3.95 deaths per 100,000 person years (95%CI -6.80 to -1.10), or 0.5%. Estimated reductions in cardiovascular disease mortality contributed 60% of the overall effect and were more pronounced among women. Motor vehicle accident mortality declined with unemployment increases, especially for men and those under age 65, as did legal intervention and homicide mortality, particularly for men and adults ages 25-64. We find suggestive evidence that increases in metropolitan area unemployment increased accidental drug poisoning deaths for both men and women ages 25-64. Our finding that all-cause mortality decreased during the Great Recession is consistent with previous studies. Some categories of cause-specific mortality, notably cardiovascular disease, also follow this pattern, and are more pronounced for certain gender and age groups. Our study also suggests that the recent recession contributed to the growth in deaths from overdoses of prescription drugs in

Aging in the natural world: comparative data reveal similar mortality patterns across primates.

PubMed

Bronikowski, Anne M; Altmann, Jeanne; Brockman, Diane K; Cords, Marina; Fedigan, Linda M; Pusey, Anne; Stoinski, Tara; Morris, William F; Strier, Karen B; Alberts, Susan C

2011-03-11

Human senescence patterns-late onset of mortality increase, slow mortality acceleration, and exceptional longevity-are often described as unique in the animal world. Using an individual-based data set from longitudinal studies of wild populations of seven primate species, we show that contrary to assumptions of human uniqueness, human senescence falls within the primate continuum of aging; the tendency for males to have shorter life spans and higher age-specific mortality than females throughout much of adulthood is a common feature in many, but not all, primates; and the aging profiles of primate species do not reflect phylogenetic position. These findings suggest that mortality patterns in primates are shaped by local selective forces rather than phylogenetic history.

Illiteracy, low educational status, and cardiovascular mortality in India

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Influence of education, a marker of SES, on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has not been evaluated in low-income countries. To determine influence of education on CVD mortality a cohort study was performed in India. Methods 148,173 individuals aged ≥ 35 years were recruited in Mumbai during 1991-1997 and followed to ascertain vital status during 1997-2003. Subjects were divided according to educational status into one of the five groups: illiterate, primary school (≦ 5 years of formal education), middle school (6-8 years), secondary school (9-10 years) and college (> 10 years). Multivariate analyses using Cox proportional hazard model was performed and hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) determined. Results At average follow-up of 5.5 years (774,129 person-years) 13,261 deaths were observed. CVD was the major cause of death in all the five educational groups. Age adjusted all-cause mortality per 100,000 in illiterate to college going men respectively was 2154, 2149, 1793, 1543 and 1187 and CVD mortality was 471, 654, 618, 518 and 450; and in women all-cause mortality was 1444, 949, 896, 981 and 962 and CVD mortality was 429, 301, 267, 426 and 317 (ptrend < 0.01). Compared with illiterate, age-adjusted HRs for CVD mortality in primary school to college going men were 1.36, 1.27, 1.01 and 0.88 (ptrend < 0.05) and in women 0.69, 0.55, 1.04 and 0.74, respectively (ptrend > 0.05). Conclusions Inverse association of literacy status with all-cause mortality was observed in Indian men and women, while, for CVD mortality it was observed only in men. PMID:21756367

Illiteracy, low educational status, and cardiovascular mortality in India.

PubMed

Pednekar, Mangesh S; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Prakash C

2011-07-15

Influence of education, a marker of SES, on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has not been evaluated in low-income countries. To determine influence of education on CVD mortality a cohort study was performed in India. 148,173 individuals aged ≥ 35 years were recruited in Mumbai during 1991-1997 and followed to ascertain vital status during 1997-2003. Subjects were divided according to educational status into one of the five groups: illiterate, primary school (≦ 5 years of formal education), middle school (6-8 years), secondary school (9-10 years) and college (> 10 years). Multivariate analyses using Cox proportional hazard model was performed and hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) determined. At average follow-up of 5.5 years (774,129 person-years) 13,261 deaths were observed. CVD was the major cause of death in all the five educational groups. Age adjusted all-cause mortality per 100,000 in illiterate to college going men respectively was 2154, 2149, 1793, 1543 and 1187 and CVD mortality was 471, 654, 618, 518 and 450; and in women all-cause mortality was 1444, 949, 896, 981 and 962 and CVD mortality was 429, 301, 267, 426 and 317 (ptrend < 0.01). Compared with illiterate, age-adjusted HRs for CVD mortality in primary school to college going men were 1.36, 1.27, 1.01 and 0.88 (ptrend < 0.05) and in women 0.69, 0.55, 1.04 and 0.74, respectively (ptrend > 0.05). Inverse association of literacy status with all-cause mortality was observed in Indian men and women, while, for CVD mortality it was observed only in men.

Trends in birth weight-specific and -adjusted infant mortality rates in Taiwan between 2004 and 2011.

PubMed

Liang, Fu-Wen; Chou, Hung-Chieh; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chen, Li-Hua; Wu, Mei-Hwan; Lue, Hung-Chi; Chiang, Tung-Liang; Lu, Tsung-Hsueh

2018-06-01

A yearly increase in the proportion of very low birth weight (VLBW) live births has resulted in the slowdown of decreasing trends in crude infant mortality rates (IMRs). In this study, we examined the trends in birth weight-specific as well as birth weight-adjusted IMRs in Taiwan. We linked three nationwide datasets, namely the National Birth Reporting Database, National Birth Certification Registry, and National Death Certification Registry databases, to calculate the IMRs according to the birth weight category. Trend tests and mortality rate ratios in the periods 2010-2011 and 2004-2005 were used to examine the extent of reduction in birth weight-specific and birth weight-adjusted IMRs. The proportion of VLBW (<1500 g) infants among live births increased from 0.78% in 2004-2005 to 0.89% in 2010-2011, thus exhibiting a 15% increase. The extents of the decreases in birth weight-specific IMRs in the 500-999, 1000-1499, 1500-1999, 2000-2499, and 2500-2999 g birth weight categories were 15%, 33%, 43%, 30%, and 28%, respectively, from 2004-2005 to 2010-2011. The reduction in IMR in each birth weight category was larger than the reduction in the crude IMR (13%). By contrast, the IMR in the <500 g birth weight category exhibited a 56% increase during the study period. The IMRs were calculated by excluding all live births with a birth weight of <500 g. The birth weight-adjusted IMRs, which were calculated using a standard birth weight distribution structure for adjustment, exhibited similar extent reductions. In countries with an increasing proportion of VLBW live births, birth weight-specific or -adjusted IMRs are more appropriate than other indices for accurately assessing the real extent of reduction in IMRs. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Reductions in 28-Day Mortality Following Hospital Admission for Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage

PubMed Central

Crooks, Colin; Card, Tim; West, Joe

2011-01-01

Background & Aims It is unclear whether mortality from upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage is changing: any differences observed might result from changes in age or comorbidity of patient populations. We estimated trends in 28-day mortality in England following hospital admission for gastrointestinal hemorrhage. Methods We used a case-control study design to analyze data from all adults administered to a National Health Service hospital, for upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage, from 1999 to 2007 (n = 516,153). Cases were deaths within 28 days of admission (n = 74,992), and controls were survivors to 28 days. The 28-day mortality was derived from the linked national death register. A logistic regression model was used to adjust trends in nonvariceal and variceal hemorrhage mortality for age, sex, and comorbidities and to investigate potential interactions. Results During the study period, the unadjusted, overall, 28-day mortality following nonvariceal hemorrhage was reduced from 14.7% to 13.1% (unadjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval: 0.84–0.90). The mortality following variceal hemorrhage was reduced from 24.6% to 20.9% (unadjusted odds ratio, 0.8; 95% confidence interval: 0.69–0.95). Adjustments for age and comorbidity partly accounted for the observed trends in mortality. Different mortality trends were identified for different age groups following nonvariceal hemorrhage. Conclusions The 28-day mortality in England following both nonvariceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage decreased from 1999 to 2007, and the reduction had been partly obscured by changes in patient age and comorbidities. Our findings indicate that the overall management of bleeding has improved within the first 4 weeks of admission. PMID:21447331

Heritability of and mortality prediction with a longevity phenotype: the healthy aging index.

PubMed

Sanders, Jason L; Minster, Ryan L; Barmada, M Michael; Matteini, Amy M; Boudreau, Robert M; Christensen, Kaare; Mayeux, Richard; Borecki, Ingrid B; Zhang, Qunyuan; Perls, Thomas; Newman, Anne B

2014-04-01

Longevity-associated genes may modulate risk for age-related diseases and survival. The Healthy Aging Index (HAI) may be a subphenotype of longevity, which can be constructed in many studies for genetic analysis. We investigated the HAI's association with survival in the Cardiovascular Health Study and heritability in the Long Life Family Study. The HAI includes systolic blood pressure, pulmonary vital capacity, creatinine, fasting glucose, and Modified Mini-Mental Status Examination score, each scored 0, 1, or 2 using approximate tertiles and summed from 0 (healthy) to 10 (unhealthy). In Cardiovascular Health Study, the association with mortality and accuracy predicting death were determined with Cox proportional hazards analysis and c-statistics, respectively. In Long Life Family Study, heritability was determined with a variance component-based family analysis using a polygenic model. Cardiovascular Health Study participants with unhealthier index scores (7-10) had 2.62-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.22, 3.10) greater mortality than participants with healthier scores (0-2). The HAI alone predicted death moderately well (c-statistic = 0.643, 95% confidence interval: 0.626, 0.661, p < .0001) and slightly worse than age alone (c-statistic = 0.700, 95% confidence interval: 0.684, 0.717, p < .0001; p < .0001 for comparison of c-statistics). Prediction increased significantly with adjustment for demographics, health behaviors, and clinical comorbidities (c-statistic = 0.780, 95% confidence interval: 0.765, 0.794, p < .0001). In Long Life Family Study, the heritability of the HAI was 0.295 (p < .0001) overall, 0.387 (p < .0001) in probands, and 0.238 (p = .0004) in offspring. The HAI should be investigated further as a candidate phenotype for uncovering longevity-associated genes in humans.

Mortality in Individuals Aged 80 and Older with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Relation to Glycosylated Hemoglobin, Blood Pressure, and Total Cholesterol.

PubMed

Hamada, Shota; Gulliford, Martin C

2016-07-01

To evaluate whether low glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), blood pressure (BP), and total cholesterol (TC) are associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality in very old individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Population-based cohort study. Primary care database in the United Kingdom. Individuals aged 80 and older with type 2 diabetes mellitus (N = 25,966). Associations between baseline HbA1c, BP, and TC and all-cause mortality were evaluated in Cox proportional hazards models. Analyses were adjusted for sex, age, duration of diabetes mellitus, lifestyle variables, HbA1c, BP, TC, comorbidities, prescribing of antidiabetic and cardiovascular drugs, and participants' general practice. There were 4,490 deaths during follow-up (median 2.0 years; mortality 104.7 per 1,000 person-years). Mortality in participants with low (<6.0% (<42 mmol/mol)) or high (≥8.5% (≥69 mmol/mol)) HbA1c was similar to that in those with the reference HbA1c (8.0-8.4% (64-68 mmol/mol)). Mortality was lowest in individuals with HbA1c of 7.0-7.4% (53-57 mmol/mol) (80.9 per 1,000 person-years, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.70-0.91, P = .001). Mortality was higher in individuals with lower BP (e.g., <130/70 mmHg, 151.7 per 1,000 person-years, aHR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.34-1.72, P < .001 vs reference BP <150/90 mmHg) and in the lowest TC category (<3.0 mmol/L, 138.7 per 1,000 person-years, aHR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.24-1.64, P < .001 vs reference TC 4.5-4.9 mmol/L). The relationship between TC and mortality varied according to sex and prescription of lipid-lowering drugs. Low HbA1c, BP, and TC may be associated with higher mortality in very old adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Further research is required to understand these associations and to identify optimal treatment targets in this population. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society.

Gestational age and 1-year hospital admission or mortality: a nation-wide population-based study.

PubMed

Iacobelli, Silvia; Combier, Evelyne; Roussot, Adrien; Cottenet, Jonathan; Gouyon, Jean-Bernard; Quantin, Catherine

2017-01-18

Describe the 1-year hospitalization and in-hospital mortality rates, in infants born after 31 weeks of gestational age (GA). This nation-wide population-based study used the French medico-administrative database to assess the following outcomes in singleton live-born infants (32-43 weeks) without congenital anomalies (year 2011): neonatal hospitalization (day of life 1 - 28), post-neonatal hospitalization (day of life 29 - 365), and 1-year in-hospital mortality rates. Marginal models and negative binomial regressions were used. The study included 696,698 live-born babies. The neonatal hospitalization rate was 9.8%. Up to 40 weeks, the lower the GA, the higher the hospitalization rate and the greater the likelihood of requiring the highest level of neonatal care (both p < 0.001). The relative risk adjusted for sex and pregnancy-related diseases (aRR) reached 21.1 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19.2-23.3) at 32 weeks. The post-neonatal hospitalization rate was 12.1%. The raw rates for post-neonatal hospitalization fell significantly from 32 - 40 and increased at 43 weeks and this persisted after adjustment (aRR = 3.6 [95% CI: 3.3-3.9] at 32 and 1.5 [95% CI: 1.1-1.9] at 43 compared to 40 weeks). The main causes of post-neonatal hospitalization were bronchiolitis (17.2%), gastroenteritis (10.4%) ENT diseases (5.4%) and accidents (6.2%). The in-hospital mortality rate was 0.85‰, with a significant decrease (p < 0.001) according to GA at birth (aRR = 3.8 [95% CI: 2.4-5.8] at 32 and 6.6 [95% CI: 2.1-20.9] at 43, compared to 40 weeks. There's a continuous change in outcome in hospitalized infants born above 31 weeks. Birth at 40 weeks gestation is associated with the lowest 1-year morbidity and mortality.

The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013

PubMed Central

Haagsma, Juanita A; Graetz, Nicholas; Bolliger, Ian; Naghavi, Mohsen; Higashi, Hideki; Mullany, Erin C; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Adofo, Koranteng; Alsharif, Ubai; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Ammar, Walid; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Barrero, Lope H; Bekele, Tolesa; Bose, Dipan; Brazinova, Alexandra; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Derrett, Sarah; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Petrovich Ermakov, Sergey; Farzadfar, Farshad; Feigin, Valery L; Gabbe, Belinda; Gosselin, Richard A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hijar, Martha; Hu, Guoqing; Jayaraman, Sudha P; Jiang, Guohong; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kulkarni, Chanda; Lecky, Fiona E; Leung, Ricky; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan Anthony; Majdan, Marek; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Matzopoulos, Richard; Meaney, Peter A; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Miller, Ted R; Mock, Charles N; Norman, Rosana E; Polinder, Suzanne; Pourmalek, Farshad; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Refaat, Amany; Rojas-Rueda, David; Roy, Nobhojit; Schwebel, David C; Shaheen, Amira; Shahraz, Saeid; Skirbekk, Vegard; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Stein, Dan J; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Temesgen, Awoke Misganaw; Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah; Theadom, Alice M; Tran, Bach Xuan; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vavilala, Monica S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yu, Chuanhua; Murray, Christopher J L; Vos, Theo

2016-01-01

Background The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. Results In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Conclusions Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made. PMID:26635210

Low physical activity as a predictor for total and cardiovascular disease mortality in middle-aged men and women in Finland.

PubMed

Barengo, Noël C; Hu, Gang; Lakka, Timo A; Pekkarinen, Heikki; Nissinen, Aulikki; Tuomilehto, Jaakko

2004-12-01

To investigate separately for men and women whether moderate or high leisure time physical activity, occupational physical activity, and commuting activity are associated with a reduced cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality, independent of CVD risk factors and other forms of physical activity. Prospective follow-up of 15,853 men and 16,824 women aged 30-59 years living in eastern and south-western Finland (median follow-up time 20 years). CVD and all-cause mortality were lower (9-21%) in men and women (2-17%) who were moderately or highly physically active during leisure time. Moderate and high levels of occupational physical activity decreased CVD and all-cause mortality by 21-27% in both sexes. Women spending daily 15 min or more in walking or cycling to and from work had a reduced CVD and all-cause mortality before adjustment for occupational and leisure time physical activity. Commuting activity was not associated with CVD or all-cause mortality in men. Moderate and high levels of leisure time and occupational physical activity are associated with a reduced CVD and all-cause mortality among both sexes. Promoting already moderate levels of leisure time and occupational physical activity are essential to prevent premature CVD and all-cause mortality.

Relationship between low levels of anabolic hormones and 6-year mortality in older men: the aging in the Chianti Area (InCHIANTI) study.

PubMed

Maggio, Marcello; Lauretani, Fulvio; Ceda, Gian Paolo; Bandinelli, Stefania; Ling, Shari M; Metter, E Jeffrey; Artoni, Andrea; Carassale, Laura; Cazzato, Anna; Ceresini, Graziano; Guralnik, Jack M; Basaria, Shehzad; Valenti, Giorgio; Ferrucci, Luigi

2007-11-12

Aging in men is characterized by a progressive decline in levels of anabolic hormones, such as testosterone, insulinlike growth factor 1 (IGF-1), and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-S). We hypothesized that in older men a parallel age-associated decline in bioavailable testosterone, IGF-1, and DHEA-S secretion is associated with higher mortality independent of potential confounders. Testosterone, IGF-1, DHEA-S, and demographic features were evaluated in a representative sample of 410 men 65 years and older enrolled in the Aging in the Chianti Area (InCHIANTI) study. A total of 126 men died during the 6-year follow-up. Thresholds for lowest-quartile definitions were 70 ng/dL (to convert to nanomoles per liter, multiply by 0.0347) for bioavailable testosterone, 63.9 ng/mL (to convert to nanomoles per liter, multiply by 0.131) for total IGF-1, and 50 microg/dL (to convert to micromoles per liter, multiply by 0.027) for DHEA-S. Men were divided into 4 groups: no hormone in the lowest quartile (reference) and 1, 2, and 3 hormones in the lowest quartiles. Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for confounders were used in the analysis. Compared with men with levels of all 3 hormones above the lowest quartiles, having 1, 2, and 3 dysregulated hormones was associated with hazard ratios for mortality of 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88-2.44), 1.85 (95% CI, 1.04-3.30), and 2.29 (95% CI, 1.12-4.68), respectively (test for trend, P <.001). In the fully adjusted analysis, only men with 3 anabolic hormone deficiencies had a significant increase in mortality (hazard ratio, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.09-5.46 (test for trend, P <.001). Age-associated decline in anabolic hormone levels is a strong independent predictor of mortality in older men. Having multiple hormonal deficiencies rather than a deficiency in a single anabolic hormone is a robust biomarker of health status in older persons.

Is body temperature an independent predictor of mortality in hip fracture patients?

PubMed

Faizi, Murtuza; Farrier, Adam J; Venkatesan, Murali; Thomas, Christopher; Uzoigwe, Chika Edward; Balasubramanian, Siva; Smith, Robert P

2014-12-01

Admission body temperature is a critical parameter in all trauma patients. Low admission temperature is strongly associated with adverse outcomes. We have previously shown, in a prospective study that low admission body temperature is common and associated with high mortality in hip fracture patients (Uzoigwe et al., 2014). However, no previous studies have evaluated whether admission temperature is an independent predictor of mortality in hip fracture patients after adjustment for the 7 recognised independent prognostic indicators (Maxwell et al., 2008). We retrospectively collated data on all patients presenting to our institution between June 2011 and February 2013 with a hip fracture. This included patients involved in the original prospective study (Uzoigwe et al., 2014). Admission tympanic temperature, measured on initial presentation at triage, was recorded. The prognosticators of age, gender, source of admission, abbreviated mental test score, haemoglobin, co-morbid disease and the presence or absence of malignancy were also recorded. Using multiple logistic regression, adjustment was made for these potentially confounding prognostic indicators of 30-day mortality, to determine if admission low body temperature were independently linked to mortality. 1066 patients were included. 781 patients, involved in the original prospective study (Uzoigwe et al., 2014), presented in the relevant time frame and were included in the retrospective study. The mean age was 81. There were 273 (26%) men and 793 (74%) women. 407 (38%) had low body temperature (<36.5 °C). Adjustment was made for age, gender, source of admission, abbreviated mental test score, haemoglobin, co-morbid disease and the presence or absence of malignancy. Those with low body temperature had an adjusted odds ratio of 30-day mortality that was 2.1 times that of the euthermic (36.5–37.5 °C). Low body temperature is strongly and independently associated with 30-day mortality in hip fracture patients.

Child mortality, hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity and cellular aging in mothers.

PubMed

Barha, Cindy K; Salvante, Katrina G; Hanna, Courtney W; Wilson, Samantha L; Robinson, Wendy P; Altman, Rachel M; Nepomnaschy, Pablo A

2017-01-01

Psychological challenges, including traumatic events, have been hypothesized to increase the age-related pace of biological aging. Here we test the hypothesis that psychological challenges can affect the pace of telomere attrition, a marker of cellular aging, using data from an ongoing longitudinal-cohort study of Kaqchikel Mayan women living in a population with a high frequency of child mortality, a traumatic life event. Specifically, we evaluate the associations between child mortality, maternal telomere length and the mothers' hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPAA), or stress axis, activity. Child mortality data were collected in 2000 and 2013. HPAA activity was assessed by quantifying cortisol levels in first morning urinary specimens collected every other day for seven weeks in 2013. Telomere length (TL) was quantified using qPCR in 55 women from buccal specimens collected in 2013. Shorter TL with increasing age was only observed in women who experienced child mortality (p = 0.015). Women with higher average basal cortisol (p = 0.007) and greater within-individual variation (standard deviation) in basal cortisol (p = 0.053) presented shorter TL. Non-parametric bootstrapping to estimate mediation effects suggests that HPAA activity mediates the effect of child mortality on TL. Our results are, thus, consistent with the hypothesis that traumatic events can influence cellular aging and that HPAA activity may play a mediatory role. Future large-scale longitudinal studies are necessary to confirm our results and further explore the role of the HPAA in cellular aging, as well as to advance our understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved.

Child mortality, hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity and cellular aging in mothers

PubMed Central

Barha, Cindy K.; Salvante, Katrina G.; Hanna, Courtney W.; Wilson, Samantha L.; Robinson, Wendy P.; Altman, Rachel M.

2017-01-01

Psychological challenges, including traumatic events, have been hypothesized to increase the age-related pace of biological aging. Here we test the hypothesis that psychological challenges can affect the pace of telomere attrition, a marker of cellular aging, using data from an ongoing longitudinal-cohort study of Kaqchikel Mayan women living in a population with a high frequency of child mortality, a traumatic life event. Specifically, we evaluate the associations between child mortality, maternal telomere length and the mothers’ hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPAA), or stress axis, activity. Child mortality data were collected in 2000 and 2013. HPAA activity was assessed by quantifying cortisol levels in first morning urinary specimens collected every other day for seven weeks in 2013. Telomere length (TL) was quantified using qPCR in 55 women from buccal specimens collected in 2013. Results: Shorter TL with increasing age was only observed in women who experienced child mortality (p = 0.015). Women with higher average basal cortisol (p = 0.007) and greater within-individual variation (standard deviation) in basal cortisol (p = 0.053) presented shorter TL. Non-parametric bootstrapping to estimate mediation effects suggests that HPAA activity mediates the effect of child mortality on TL. Our results are, thus, consistent with the hypothesis that traumatic events can influence cellular aging and that HPAA activity may play a mediatory role. Future large-scale longitudinal studies are necessary to confirm our results and further explore the role of the HPAA in cellular aging, as well as to advance our understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved. PMID:28542264

Dynamics of Biomarkers in Relation to Aging and Mortality

PubMed Central

Arbeev, Konstantin G.; Ukraintseva, Svetlana V.; Yashin, Anatoliy I.

2016-01-01

Contemporary longitudinal studies collect repeated measurements of biomarkers allowing one to analyze their dynamics in relation to mortality, morbidity, or other health-related outcomes. Rich and diverse data collected in such studies provide opportunities to investigate how various socioeconomic, demographic, behavioral and other variables can interact with biological and genetic factors to produce differential rates of aging in individuals. In this paper, we review some recent publications investigating dynamics of biomarkers in relation to mortality, which use single biomarkers as well as cumulative measures combining information from multiple biomarkers. We also discuss the analytical approach, the stochastic process models, which conceptualizes several aging-related mechanisms in the structure of the model and allows evaluating “hidden” characteristics of aging-related changes indirectly from available longitudinal data on biomarkers and follow-up on mortality or onset of diseases taking into account other relevant factors (both genetic and non-genetic). We also discuss an extension of the approach, which considers ranges of “optimal values” of biomarkers rather than a single optimal value as in the original model. We discuss practical applications of the approach to single biomarkers and cumulative measures highlighting that the potential of applications to cumulative measures is still largely underused. PMID:27138087

Description of cervical cancer mortality in Belgium using Bayesian age-period-cohort models

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Objective To correct cervical cancer mortality rates for death cause certification problems in Belgium and to describe the corrected trends (1954-1997) using Bayesian models. Method Cervical cancer (cervix uteri (CVX), corpus uteri (CRP), not otherwise specified (NOS) uterus cancer and other very rare uterus cancer (OTH) mortality data were extracted from the WHO mortality database together with population data for Belgium and the Netherlands. Different ICD (International Classification of Diseases) were used over time for death cause certification. In the Netherlands, the proportion of not-otherwise specified uterine cancer deaths was small over large periods and therefore internal reallocation could be used to estimate the corrected rates cervical cancer mortality. In Belgium, the proportion of improperly defined uterus deaths was high. Therefore, the age-specific proportions of uterus cancer deaths that are probably of cervical origin for the Netherlands was applied to Belgian uterus cancer deaths to estimate the corrected number of cervix cancer deaths (corCVX). A Bayesian loglinear Poisson-regression model was performed to disentangle the separate effects of age, period and cohort. Results The corrected age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased regularly from 9.2/100 000 in the mid 1950s to 2.5/100,000 in the late 1990s. Inclusion of age, period and cohort into the models were required to obtain an adequate fit. Cervical cancer mortality increases with age, declines over calendar period and varied irregularly by cohort. Conclusion Mortality increased with ageing and declined over time in most age-groups, but varied irregularly by birth cohort. In global, with some discrete exceptions, mortality decreased for successive generations up to the cohorts born in the 1930s. This decline stopped for cohorts born in the 1940s and thereafter. For the youngest cohorts, even a tendency of increasing risk of dying from cervical cancer could be observed, reflecting

Tea Consumption and Mortality Among Oldest-Old Chinese

PubMed Central

Ruan, Rongping; Feng, Lei; Li, Jialiang; Ng, Tze-Pin; Zeng, Yi

2013-01-01

Objectives To investigate the association between tea consumption and mortality among oldest-old Chinese. Design Population-based longitudinal data from The Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) was analyzed using Cox semi-parametric proportional hazard model. Setting 631 randomly selected counties and cities of China’s 22 provinces. Participants 9,093 old adults aged 80 and above who provided complete data at baseline survey (year 1998). Measurements Self-reported current frequency of tea drinking and past frequency around age 60 were ascertained at baseline survey, and follow-up survey was conducted respectively in years 2000, 2002 and 2005. Results Among oldest-old Chinese, tea consumption was associated with reduced risk of mortality after adjusting for demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, health practices, and health status. Compared with non-tea drinkers, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 0.90 (95% CI 0.84–0.96) for daily tea drinkers (at the baseline survey, 1998) and 1.00 (95% CI 1.01–1.07) for occasional tea drinkers respectively (P for linear trend=0.003). Similar results were found when tea drinking status around age 60 was used in analysis. Further analysis showed that compared to consistently infrequent tea drinkers, subjects who reported frequent tea drinking at both age 60 and at baseline survey had a 10% reduction in mortality (HR=0.90, 95%CI 0.84–0.97). Conclusion Tea consumption is associated reduced risk of mortality among oldest-old Chinese. PMID:24117374

Chronic Conditions and Mortality Among the Oldest Old

PubMed Central

Lee, Sei J.; Go, Alan S.; Lindquist, Karla; Bertenthal, Daniel; Covinsky, Kenneth E.

2008-01-01

Objectives. We sought to determine whether chronic conditions and functional limitations are equally predictive of mortality among older adults. Methods. Participants in the 1998 wave of the Health and Retirement Study (N=19430) were divided into groups by decades of age, and their vital status in 2004 was determined. We used multivariate Cox regression to determine the ability of chronic conditions and functional limitations to predict mortality. Results. As age increased, the ability of chronic conditions to predict mortality declined rapidly, whereas the ability of functional limitations to predict mortality declined more slowly. In younger participants (aged 50–59 years), chronic conditions were stronger predictors of death than were functional limitations (Harrell C statistic 0.78 vs. 0.73; P=.001). In older participants (aged 90–99 years), functional limitations were stronger predictors of death than were chronic conditions (Harrell C statistic 0.67 vs. 0.61; P=.004). Conclusions. The importance of chronic conditions as a predictor of death declined rapidly with increasing age. Therefore, risk-adjustment models that only consider comorbidities when comparing mortality rates across providers may be inadequate for adults older than 80 years. PMID:18511714

Effect of age at diagnosis of breast cancer on the patterns and risk of mortality from all causes: a population-based study in Australia.

PubMed

Beadle, Geoffrey Francis; McCarthy, Nicole Jean; Baade, Peter David

2013-06-01

This retrospective, population-based study investigated the patterns and risks of mortality from breast cancer, other cancers and non-cancer causes according to the age at diagnosis of breast cancer. Mortality was assessed in all Australian women (n = 179,653) aged 30-79 years who were diagnosed with breast cancer between 1982 and 2004 and who survived a minimum of 1 year. The mean follow up was 6.3 years (range 0-23 years). Before December 2005, 52,934 women had died (34,459 of breast cancer, 5019 of other cancers and 13,456 of non-cancer causes). There was an inverse age-related relative risk of mortality (calculated as the standardized mortality ratio [SMR]) from breast cancer (linear trend across age P < 0.01). For breast cancer survivors the age-adjusted SMR was 0.99 for other cancers and 0.81(P < 0.01) for non-cancer causes in comparison with the general population. The SMR for other cancers and non-cancer causes was highest in the 30-39-year-old age group (2.13, P < 0.01 and 2.15, P < 0.01, respectively), and progressively decreased with increasing age, with the 70-79-year-old age group having significantly reduced SMR (0.95, P < 0.05, and 0.78, P < 0.01, respectively, compared with the age-matched general population). There was an inverse age-related relative risk of death from breast cancer, other cancers and non-cancer causes. These findings suggest that younger Australian women require long-term health surveillance and that older women with limited comorbidities require optimal treatment of their breast cancer. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Association of Muscle Endurance, Fatigability, and Strength With Functional Limitation and Mortality in the Health Aging and Body Composition Study

PubMed Central

Patel, Kushang V.; Fried, Linda F.; Robinson-Cohen, Cassianne; de Boer, Ian H.; Harris, Tamara; Murphy, Rachel A.; Satterfield, Suzanne; Goodpaster, Bret H.; Shlipak, Michael; Newman, Anne B.; Kestenbaum, Bryan

2017-01-01

Background: Mobility limitation is highly prevalent among older adults and is central to the loss of functional independence. Dynamic isokinetic muscle fatigue testing may reveal increased vulnerability to disability and mortality beyond strength testing. Methods: We studied community-dwelling older adults enrolled in the Health Aging and Body Composition study (age range: 71–82) free of mobility disability and who underwent isokinetic muscle fatigue testing in 1999–2000 (n = 1,963). Isokinetic quadriceps work and fatigue index was determined over 30 repetitions and compared with isometric quadriceps maximum torque. Work was normalized to leg lean mass accounting for gender-specific differences (specific work). The primary outcome was incident persistent severe lower extremity limitation (PSLL), defined as two consecutive reports of either having a lot of difficulty or being unable to walk 1/4 mile or climb 10 steps without resting. The secondary outcome was all-cause mortality. Results: There were 608 (31%) occurrences of incident PSLL and 488 (25%) deaths during median follow-up of 9.3 years. After adjustment, lower isokinetic work was associated with significantly greater risks of PSLL and mortality across the full measured range. Hazard ratios per standard deviation lower specific isokinetic work were 1.22 (95% CI 1.12, 1.33) for PSLL and 1.21 (95% CI 1.13, 1.30) for mortality, respectively. Lower isometric strength was associated with PSLL, but not mortality. Fatigue index was not associated with PSLL or mortality. Conclusions: Muscle endurance, estimated by isokinetic work, is an indicator of muscle health associated with mobility limitation and mortality providing important insight beyond strength testing. PMID:27907890

Factors Associated with Pediatric Mortality from Motor Vehicle Crashes in the United States: A State-Based Analysis.

PubMed

Wolf, Lindsey L; Chowdhury, Ritam; Tweed, Jefferson; Vinson, Lori; Losina, Elena; Haider, Adil H; Qureshi, Faisal G

2017-08-01

To examine geographic variation in motor vehicle crash (MVC)-related pediatric mortality and identify state-level predictors of mortality. Using the 2010-2014 Fatality Analysis Reporting System, we identified passengers <15 years of age involved in fatal MVCs, defined as crashes on US public roads with ≥1 death (adult or pediatric) within 30 days. We assessed passenger, driver, vehicle, crash, and state policy characteristics as factors potentially associated with MVC-related pediatric mortality. Our outcomes were age-adjusted, MVC-related mortality rate per 100 000 children and percentage of children who died of those in fatal MVCs. Unit of analysis was US state. We used multivariable linear regression to define state characteristics associated with higher levels of each outcome. Of 18 116 children in fatal MVCs, 15.9% died. The age-adjusted, MVC-related mortality rate per 100 000 children varied from 0.25 in Massachusetts to 3.23 in Mississippi (mean national rate of 0.94). Predictors of greater age-adjusted, MVC-related mortality rate per 100 000 children included greater percentage of children who were unrestrained or inappropriately restrained (P < .001) and greater percentage of crashes on rural roads (P = .016). Additionally, greater percentages of children died in states without red light camera legislation (P < .001). For 10% absolute improvement in appropriate child restraint use nationally, our risk-adjusted model predicted >1100 pediatric deaths averted over 5 years. MVC-related pediatric mortality varied by state and was associated with restraint nonuse or misuse, rural roads, vehicle type, and red light camera policy. Revising state regulations and improving enforcement around these factors may prevent substantial pediatric mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing predicted age-specific breast cancer mortality rates in 27 European countries by 2020.

PubMed

Clèries, R; Rooney, R M; Vilardell, M; Espinàs, J A; Dyba, T; Borras, J M

2018-03-01

We assessed differences in predicted breast cancer (BC) mortality rates, across Europe, by 2020, taking into account changes in the time trends of BC mortality rates during the period 2000-2010. BC mortality data, for 27 European Union (EU) countries, were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. First, we compared BC mortality data between time periods 2000-2004 and 2006-2010 through standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and carrying out a graphical assessment of the age-specific rates. Second, making use of the base period 2006-2012, we predicted BC mortality rates by 2020. Finally, making use of the SMRs and the predicted data, we identified a clustering of countries, assessing differences in the time trends between the areas defined in this clustering. The clustering approach identified two clusters of countries: the first cluster were countries where BC predicted mortality rates, in 2020, might slightly increase among women aged 69 and older compared with 2010 [Greece (SMR 1.01), Croatia (SMR 1.02), Latvia (SMR 1.15), Poland (SMR 1.14), Estonia (SMR 1.16), Bulgaria (SMR 1.13), Lithuania (SMR 1.03), Romania (SMR 1.13) and Slovakia (SMR 1.06)]. The second cluster was those countries where BC mortality rates level off or decrease in all age groups (remaining countries). However, BC mortality rates between these clusters might diminish and converge to similar figures by 2020. For the year 2020, our predictions have shown a converging pattern of BC mortality rates between European regions. Reducing disparities, in access to screening and treatment, could have a substantial effect in countries where a non-decreasing trend in age-specific BC mortality rates has been predicted.

Overweight and mortality in Mexican Americans.

PubMed

Stern, M P; Patterson, J K; Mitchell, B D; Haffner, S M; Hazuda, H P

1990-07-01

The Geriatric Research Center (GRC) table of desirable weights is based on the mortality experience of holders of 4.2 million policies issued by 25 life insurance companies in the USA and Canada. The GRC table defines optimum weight-for-height as the weight range which is associated with below average mortality for a given age and height group. People who fall outside this range, i.e. overweight or underweight, experience above average mortality for their age and height group. We classified 3176 Mexican Americans and 1841 non-Hispanic whites who participated in the San Antonio Heart Study according to the GRC table and found that Mexican Americans were less likely than non-Hispanic whites to be underweight and more likely to be overweight. The two effects did not offset one another, however, and fewer Mexican Americans were found to be in the 'just right' range. If the mortality experience of the population which generated the GRC table (largely non-Hispanic) applied to Mexican Americans, these results imply that Mexican Americans should have higher mortality rates than non-Hispanic whites. Vital statistics data from the state of Texas for the years 1979-81, however, fail to corroborate this prediction. Beyond age 45 years, an age range in which obesity and obesity-related disorders would be expected to exert an important influence on mortality, age-specific and age-adjusted all cause mortality was at last as good if not better in Mexican Americans than in non-Hispanic whites. These results could not be explained by ethnic differences in body fat distribution, since fat was less favorably distributed in Mexican Americans.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Short-term mortality after perforated or bleeding peptic ulcer among elderly patients: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Christensen, Steffen; Riis, Anders; Nørgaard, Mette; Sørensen, Henrik T; Thomsen, Reimar W

2007-04-17

Mortality after perforated and bleeding peptic ulcer increases with age. Limited data exist on how the higher burden of comorbidity among elderly patients affects this association. We aimed to examine the association of age with short-term mortality after perforated and bleeding peptic ulcer and to determine the impact of comorbidity on this association. In this population-based cohort study in three Danish counties between 1991 and 2003 we identified two cohorts of patients: those hospitalized with a first-time discharge diagnosis of perforated peptic ulcer and those with bleeding peptic ulcer. The diagnoses were ascertained from hospital discharge registries and mortality through the Danish Civil Registration System. Information on comorbidity and use of ulcer-related drugs was obtained through administrative medical databases. We computed age-, gender- and comorbidity-standardized 30-day mortality rates and used Cox's regression to estimate adjusted 30-day mortality rate ratios (MRR) for elderly compared with younger patients. Among 2,061 patients with perforated peptic ulcer, 743 (36%) were 65-79 years old and 513 patients (25%) were aged 80+ years. Standardized 30-day mortality was 8.9% among patients younger than 65 years rising to 44.6% among patients aged 80+ years, corresponding to an adjusted MRR of 5.3 (95% CI: 4.0-7.0). Among 7,232 patients with bleeding peptic ulcer 2,372 (33%) were aged 80+ years. Standardized 30-day mortality among patients younger than 65 was 4.3% compared with 16.9% among patients aged 80+ years, corresponding to an adjusted MRR of 3.7 (95% CI: 2.9-4.7). Analyses stratified by comorbidity consistently showed high MRRs among elderly patients, regardless of comorbidity level. Ageing is a strong predictor for a poor outcome after perforated and bleeding peptic ulcer independently of comorbidity.

Short-term mortality after perforated or bleeding peptic ulcer among elderly patients: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

2007-01-01

Background Mortality after perforated and bleeding peptic ulcer increases with age. Limited data exist on how the higher burden of comorbidity among elderly patients affects this association. We aimed to examine the association of age with short-term mortality after perforated and bleeding peptic ulcer and to determine the impact of comorbidity on this association. Methods In this population-based cohort study in three Danish counties between 1991 and 2003 we identified two cohorts of patients: those hospitalized with a first-time discharge diagnosis of perforated peptic ulcer and those with bleeding peptic ulcer. The diagnoses were ascertained from hospital discharge registries and mortality through the Danish Civil Registration System. Information on comorbidity and use of ulcer-related drugs was obtained through administrative medical databases. We computed age-, gender- and comorbidity-standardized 30-day mortality rates and used Cox's regression to estimate adjusted 30-day mortality rate ratios (MRR) for elderly compared with younger patients. Results Among 2,061 patients with perforated peptic ulcer, 743 (36%) were 65–79 years old and 513 patients (25%) were aged 80+ years. Standardized 30-day mortality was 8.9% among patients younger than 65 years rising to 44.6% among patients aged 80+ years, corresponding to an adjusted MRR of 5.3 (95% CI: 4.0–7.0). Among 7,232 patients with bleeding peptic ulcer 2,372 (33%) were aged 80+ years. Standardized 30-day mortality among patients younger than 65 was 4.3% compared with 16.9% among patients aged 80+ years, corresponding to an adjusted MRR of 3.7 (95% CI: 2.9–4.7). Analyses stratified by comorbidity consistently showed high MRRs among elderly patients, regardless of comorbidity level. Conclusion Ageing is a strong predictor for a poor outcome after perforated and bleeding peptic ulcer independently of comorbidity. PMID:17439661

Impact of Gait Speed and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living on All-Cause Mortality in Adults ≥65 Years of Age with Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Lo, Alexander X.; Donnelly, John P.; McGwin, Gerald; Bittner, Vera; Ahmed, Ali; Brown, Cynthia J.

2015-01-01

Mobility and function are important predictors of survival. However, their combined impact on mortality in adults ≥65 years of age with heart failure (HF) is not well understood. This study examined the role of gait speed and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) in all-cause mortality in a cohort of 1,119 community-dwelling Cardiovascular Health Study participants ≥65 years of age with incident HF. Data on HF and mortality were collected through annual examinations or contact during the 10-year follow-up period. Slower gait speed (<0.8m/s vs. ≥0.8m/s) and IADL impairment (≥1 vs. 0 areas of dependence) were determined from baseline and follow-up assessments. A total of 740 (66%) of the 1119 participants died during the follow-up period. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models showed that impairments in either gait speed (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% CI 1.10-1.70; p=0.004) or IADL (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.29-1.89; p<0.001), measured within 1 year before the diagnosis of incident HF, were independently associated with mortality, adjusting for socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. The combined presence of slower gait speed and IADL impairment was associated with a greater risk of mortality and suggested an additive relationship between gait speed and IADL. In conclusion, gait speed and IADL are important risk factors for mortality in adults ≥65 years of age with HF, but the combined impairments of both gait speed and IADL can have an especially important impact on mortality. PMID:25655868

Estimating child mortality and modelling its age pattern for India.

PubMed

Roy, S G

1989-06-01

"Using data [for India] on proportions of children dead...estimates of infant and child mortality are...obtained by Sullivan and Trussell modifications of [the] Brass basic method. The estimate of child survivorship function derived after logit smoothing appears to be more reliable than that obtained by the Census Actuary. The age pattern of childhood mortality is suitably modelled by [a] Weibull function defining the probability of surviving from birth to a specified age and involving two parameters of level and shape. A recently developed linearization procedure based on [a] graphical approach is adopted for estimating the parameters of the function." excerpt

Adjusting for reverse causation to estimate the effect of obesity on mortality after incident heart failure in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

PubMed

Shakiba, Maryam; Soori, Hamid; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Nazari, Seyed Saeed Hashemi; Salimi, Yahya

2016-01-01

The lower mortality rate of obese patients with heart failure (HF) has been partly attributed to reverse causation bias due to weight loss caused by disease. Using data about weight both before and after HF, this study aimed to adjust for reverse causation and examine the association of obesity both before and after HF with mortality. Using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, 308 patients with data available from before and after the incidence of HF were included. Pre-morbid and post-morbid obesity were defined based on body mass index measurements at least three months before and after incident HF. The associations of pre-morbid and post-morbid obesity and weight change with survival after HF were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazard model. Pre-morbid obesity was associated with higher mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 2.49) but post-morbid obesity was associated with increased survival (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.88). Adjusting for weight change due to disease as a confounder of the obesity-mortality relationship resulted in the absence of any significant associations between post-morbid obesity and mortality. This study demonstrated that controlling for reverse causality by adjusting for the confounder of weight change may remove or reverse the protective effect of obesity on mortality among patients with incident HF.

The composite dynamic method as evidence for age-specific waterfowl mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burnham, Kenneth P.; Anderson, David R.

1979-01-01

For the past 25 years estimation of mortality rates for waterfowl has been based almost entirely on the composite dynamic life table. We examined the specific assumptions for this method and derived a valid goodness of fit test. We performed this test on 45 data sets representing a cross section of banded sampled for various waterfowl species, geographic areas, banding periods, and age/sex classes. We found that: (1) the composite dynamic method was rejected (P <0.001) in 37 of the 45 data sets (in fact, 29 were rejected at P <0.00001) and (2) recovery and harvest rates are year-specific (a critical violation of the necessary assumptions). We conclude that the restrictive assumptions required for the composite dynamic method to produce valid estimates of mortality rates are not met in waterfowl data. Also we demonstrate that even when the required assumptions are met, the method produces very biased estimates of age-specific mortality rates. We believe the composite dynamic method should not be used in the analysis of waterfowl banding data. Furthermore, the composite dynamic method does not provide valid evidence for age-specific mortality rates in waterfowl.

Ninety-day mortality after resection for lung cancer is nearly double 30-day mortality.

PubMed

Pezzi, Christopher M; Mallin, Katherine; Mendez, Andres Samayoa; Greer Gay, Emmelle; Putnam, Joe B

2014-11-01

To evaluate 30-day and 90-day mortality after major pulmonary resection for lung cancer including the relationship to hospital volume. Major lung resections from 2007 to 2011 were identified in the National Cancer Data Base. Mortality was compared according to annual volume and demographic and clinical covariates using univariate and multivariable analyses, and included information on comorbidity. Statistical significance (P<.05) and 95% confidence intervals were assessed. There were 124,418 major pulmonary resections identified in 1233 facilities. The 30-day mortality rate was 2.8%. The 90-day mortality rate was 5.4%. Hospital volume was significantly associated with 30-day mortality, with a mortality rate of 3.7% for volumes less than 10, and 1.7% for volumes of 90 or more. Other variables significantly associated with 30-day mortality include older age, male sex, higher stage, pneumonectomy, a previous primary cancer, and multiple comorbidities. Similar results were found for 90-day mortality rates. In the multivariate analysis, hospital volume remained significant with adjusted odds ratios of 2.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-2.6) for 30-day mortality and 1.3 (95% CI, 1.1-1.6) for conditional 90-day mortality for the hospitals with the lowest volume (<10) compared with those with the highest volume (>90). Hospitals with a volume less than 30 had an adjusted odds ratio for 30-day mortality of 1.3 (95% CI, 1.2-1.5) compared with those with a volume greater than 30. Mortality at 30 and 90 days and hospital volume should be monitored by institutions performing major pulmonary resection and benchmarked against hospitals performing at least 30 resections per year. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Housework Reduces All-Cause and Cancer Mortality in Chinese Men

PubMed Central

Yu, Ruby; Leung, Jason; Woo, Jean

2013-01-01

Background Leisure time physical activity has been extensively studied. However, the health benefits of non-leisure time physical activity, particular those undertaken at home on all-cause and cancer mortality are limited, particularly among the elderly. Methods We studied physical activity in relation to all-cause and cancer mortality in a cohort of 4,000 community-dwelling elderly aged 65 and older. Leisure time physical activity (sport/recreational activity and lawn work/yard care/gardening) and non-leisure time physical activity (housework, home repairs and caring for another person) were self-reported on the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly. Subjects with heart diseases, stroke, cancer or diabetes at baseline were excluded (n = 1,133). Results Among the 2,867 subjects with a mean age of 72 years at baseline, 452 died from all-cause and 185 died from cancer during the follow-up period (2001–2012). With the adjustment for age, education level and lifestyle factors, we found an inverse association between risk of all-cause mortality and heavy housework among men, with the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.72 (95%CI = 0.57–0.92). Further adjustment for BMI, frailty index, living arrangement, and leisure time activity did not change the result (HR = 0.71, 95%CI = 0.56–0.91). Among women, however, heavy housework was not associated with all-cause mortality. The risk of cancer mortality was significantly lower among men who participated in heavy housework (HR = 0.52, 95%CI = 0.35–0.78), whereas among women the risk was not significant. Men participated in light housework also were at lower risk of cancer mortality than were their counterparts, however, the association was not significant. Leisure time physical activity was not related to all-cause or cancer mortality in either men or women. Conclusion Heavy housework is associated with reduced mortality and cancer deaths over a 9-year period. The underlying mechanism needs further

Child Mortality Estimation: A Global Overview of Infant and Child Mortality Age Patterns in Light of New Empirical Data

PubMed Central

Guillot, Michel; Gerland, Patrick; Pelletier, François; Saabneh, Ameed

2012-01-01

Background The under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age 5 y, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and 5 q 0) is a key indicator of child health, but it conceals important information about how this mortality is distributed by age. One important distinction is what amount of the under-five mortality occurs below age 1 y (1 q 0) versus at age 1 y and above (4 q 1). However, in many country settings, this distinction is often difficult to establish because of various types of data errors. As a result, it is common practice to resort to model age patterns to estimate 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 on the basis of an observed value of 5 q 0. The most commonly used model age patterns for this purpose are the Coale and Demeny and the United Nations systems. Since the development of these models, many additional sources of data for under-five mortality have become available, making possible a general evaluation of age patterns of infant and child mortality. In this paper, we do a systematic comparison of empirical values of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 against model age patterns, and discuss whether observed deviations are due to data errors, or whether they reflect true epidemiological patterns not addressed in existing model life tables. Methods and Findings We used vital registration data from the Human Mortality Database, sample survey data from the World Fertility Survey and Demographic and Health Surveys programs, and data from Demographic Surveillance Systems. For each of these data sources, we compared empirical combinations of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 against combinations provided by Coale and Demeny and United Nations model age patterns. We found that, on the whole, empirical values fall relatively well within the range provided by these models, but we also found important exceptions. Sub-Saharan African countries have a tendency to exhibit high values of 4 q 1 relative to 1 q 0, a pattern that appears to arise for the most part from true epidemiological causes

Age-specific mortality trends in France and Italy since 1900: period and cohort effects.

PubMed

Caselli, G; Vallin, J; Vaupel, J W; Yashin, A

1987-11-01

The age/sex-specific mortality trends of France and Italy were studied over the 1899-1979 period in as much detail as possible in an effort to distinguish between cohort effects and those related to period changes. Complete series of mortality data by individual years of age and calendar years were available from 1869 to 1979 for Italy and from 1899 to 1982 for France. For both countries, these data include the military and civil deaths not registered in vital statistics during the war periods. They cover each national territory as defined by its present boundaries. The graphical representation method of mortality surfaces, elaborated by Vaupel, Gambill, and Yashin (1985), was adopted. The age/sex-specific mortality patterns of France and Italy have not followed the same trends, and the differences observed today are not those of 100 years ago. The mean death probabilities for the 1975-79 period were used to illustrate the age-specific patterns of mortality. Although infant mortality was higher in Italy than in France, the death probabilities at ages 1-15 for both sexes were roughly the same for both countries. At ages 15-23, they were much higher in France than in Italy, and they remained considerably higher in France up to age 55. From then on, the sexes differ: for males, the 2 countries showed similar patterns, whereas for females the probabilities were noticeably higher for France. The situation was very different for both countries at the beginning of the century. For both sexes, higher mortality was observed in Italy not only during infancy but throughout childhood and the adolescent years up to age 15. The 2 countries showed similar patterns from 15-25. Above age 25, the 2 countries had similar patterns for females, whereas male mortality was higher in France right up to the old age groups. Such differences in the age-specific mortality trends depend in part on a different development of health and social conditions but also may be due to factors concerning

The companion dog as a model for human aging and mortality.

PubMed

Hoffman, Jessica M; Creevy, Kate E; Franks, Alexander; O'Neill, Dan G; Promislow, Daniel E L

2018-06-01

Around the world, human populations have experienced large increases in average lifespan over the last 150 years, and while individuals are living longer, they are spending more years of life with multiple chronic morbidities. Researchers have used numerous laboratory animal models to understand the biological and environmental factors that influence aging, morbidity, and longevity. However, the most commonly studied animal species, laboratory mice and rats, do not experience environmental conditions similar to those to which humans are exposed, nor do we often diagnose them with many of the naturally occurring pathologies seen in humans. Recently, the companion dog has been proposed as a powerful model to better understand the genetic and environmental determinants of morbidity and mortality in humans. However, it is not known to what extent the age-related dynamics of morbidity, comorbidity, and mortality are shared between humans and dogs. Here, we present the first large-scale comparison of human and canine patterns of age-specific morbidity and mortality. We find that many chronic conditions that commonly occur in human populations (obesity, arthritis, hypothyroidism, and diabetes), and which are associated with comorbidities, are also associated with similarly high levels of comorbidity in companion dogs. We also find significant similarities in the effect of age on disease risk in humans and dogs, with neoplastic, congenital, and metabolic causes of death showing similar age trajectories between the two species. Overall, our study suggests that the companion dog may be an ideal translational model to study the many complex facets of human morbidity and mortality. © 2018 The Authors. Aging Cell published by the Anatomical Society and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatiotemporal Variations in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Mortality in China: Multilevel Evidence from 2006 to 2012.

PubMed

Yin, Peng; Feng, Xiaoqi; Astell-Burt, Thomas; Qi, Fei; Liu, Yunning; Liu, Jiangmei; Page, Andrew; Wang, Limin; Liu, Shiwei; Wang, Lijun; Zhou, Maigeng

2016-06-01

Mortality of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is on the decline in China. It is not known if this trend occurs across all areas or whether spatiotemporal variations manifest. We used data from the nationally representative China Mortality Surveillance System to calculate annual COPD mortality counts (2006-2012) stratified by 5-year age groups (aged > 20), gender and time for 161 counties and districts (Disease Surveillance Points, or DSP). These counts were linked to annually adjusted denominator populations. Multilevel negative binomial regression with random intercepts and slopes were used to investigate spatiotemporal variation in COPD mortality adjusting for age, gender and area-level risk factors. COPD mortality rate decreased markedly from 105.1 to 73.7 per 100,000 during 2006 to 2012 and varied over two-fold between DSPs across China. Mortality rates were higher in the west compared with the east (Rate ratio (RR) 2.15, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.73, 2.68) and in rural compared with the urban (RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.55, 2.25). Adjustment for age, gender, urban/rural, region, smoking prevalence, indoor air pollution, mean body mass index and socioeconomic circumstances accounted for 67% of the geographical variation. Urban/rural differences in COPD mortality narrowed over time, but the magnitude of the east-west inequality persisted without change. Immediate action via large-scale interventions to enhance the prevention and management of COPD are needed specifically within China's western region in order to tackle this crucial health inequality and leading preventable cause of death.

Maternal mortality ratio in Lebanon in 2008: a hospital-based reproductive age mortality study (RAMOS).

PubMed

Hobeika, Elie; Abi Chaker, Samer; Harb, Hilda; Rahbany Saad, Rita; Ammar, Walid; Adib, Salim

2014-01-01

International agencies have recently assigned Lebanon to the group H of countries with "no national data on maternal mortality," and estimated a corresponding maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 150 per 100,000 live births. The Ministry of Public Health addressed the discrepancy perceived between the reality of the maternal mortality ratio experience in Lebanon and the international report by facilitating a hospital-based reproductive age mortality study, sponsored by the World Health Organization Representative Office in Lebanon, aiming at providing an accurate estimate of a maternal mortality ratio for 2008. The survey allowed a detailed analysis of maternal causes of deaths. Reproductive age deaths (15-49 years) were initially identified through hospital records. A trained MD traveled to each hospital to ascertain whether recorded deaths were in fact maternal deaths or not. ICD10 codes were provided by the medical controller for each confirmed maternal deaths. There were 384 RA death cases, of which 13 were confirmed maternal deaths (339%) (numerator). In 2008, there were 84823 live births in Lebanon (denominator). The MMR in Lebanon in 2008 was thus officially estimated at 23/100,000 live births, with an "uncertainty range" from 153 to 30.6. Hemorrhage was the leading cause of death, with double the frequency of all other causes (pregnancy-induced hypertension, eclampsia, infection, and embolism). This specific enquiry responded to a punctual need to correct a clearly inadequate report, and it should be relayed by an on-going valid surveillance system. Results indicate that special attention has to be devoted to the management of peri-partum hemorrhage cases. Arab, postpartum hemorrhage, development, pregnancy management, verbal autopsy

Symptoms of depression and all-cause mortality in farmers, a cohort study: the HUNT study, Norway.

PubMed

Letnes, Jon Magne; Torske, Magnhild Oust; Hilt, Bjørn; Bjørngaard, Johan Håkon; Krokstad, Steinar

2016-05-17

To explore all-cause mortality and the association between symptoms of depression and all-cause mortality in farmers compared with other occupational groups, using a prospective cohort design. We included adult participants with a known occupation from the second wave of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (Helseundersøkelsen i Nord-Trøndelag 2 (HUNT2) 1995-1997), Norway. Complete information on emigration and death from all causes was obtained from the National Registries. We used the depression subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) to measure symptoms of depression. We compared farmers to 4 other occupational groups. Our baseline study population comprised 32 618 participants. Statistical analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazards models. The estimated mortality risk in farmers was lower than in all other occupations combined, with a sex and age-adjusted HR (0.91, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.00). However, farmers had an 11% increased age-adjusted and sex-adjusted mortality risk compared with the highest ranked socioeconomic group (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.25). In farmers, symptoms of depression were associated with a 13% increase in sex-adjusted and age-adjusted mortality risk (HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.45). Compared with other occupations this was the lowest HR, also after adjusting for education, marital status, long-lasting limiting somatic illness and lifestyle factors (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.39). Farmers had lower all-cause mortality compared with the other occupational groups combined. Symptoms of depression were associated with an increased mortality risk in farmers, but the risk increase was smaller compared with the other occupational groups. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Synergistic effect of age and body mass index on mortality and morbidity in general surgery.

PubMed

Yanquez, Federico J; Clements, John M; Grauf, Dawn; Merchant, Aziz M

2013-09-01

The elderly population (aged 65 y and older) is expected to be the dominant age group in the United States by 2030. In addition, the prevalence of obesity in the United States is growing exponentially. Obese elderly patients are increasingly undergoing elective or emergent general surgery. There are few, if any, studies highlighting the combined effect of age and body mass index (BMI) on surgical outcomes. We hypothesize that increasing age and BMI synergistically impact morbidity and mortality in general surgery. We collected individual-level, de-identified patient data from the Michigan Surgical Quality Collaborative. Subjects underwent general surgery with general anesthetic, were >18 y, and had a BMI between 19 and 60. Primary and secondary outcomes were 30-d "Any morbidity" and mortality (from wound, respiratory, genitourinary, central nervous system, and cardiac systems), respectively. Preoperative risk variables included diabetes, dialysis, steroid use, cardiac risk, wound classification, American Society of Anesthesiology class, emergent cases, and 13 other variables. We conducted binary logistic regression models for 30-d morbidity and mortality to determine independent effects of age, BMI, interaction between both age and BMI, and a saturated model for all independent variables. We identified 149,853 patients. The average age was 54.6 y, and the average BMI was 30.9. Overall 30-d mortality was 2%, and morbidity was 6.7%. Age was a positive predictor for mortality and morbidity, and BMI was negatively associated with mortality and not significantly associated with morbidity. Age combined with higher BMI was positively associated with morbidity and mortality when the higher age groups were analyzed. Saturated models revealed age and American Society of Anesthesiology class as highest predictors of poor outcomes. Although BMI itself was not a major independent factor predicting 30-d major morbidity or mortality, the morbidly obese, elderly (>50 and 70 y

Association of a Negative Wealth Shock With All-Cause Mortality in Middle-aged and Older Adults in the United States.

PubMed

Pool, Lindsay R; Burgard, Sarah A; Needham, Belinda L; Elliott, Michael R; Langa, Kenneth M; Mendes de Leon, Carlos F

2018-04-03

A sudden loss of wealth-a negative wealth shock-may lead to a significant mental health toll and also leave fewer monetary resources for health-related expenses. With limited years remaining to regain lost wealth in older age, the health consequences of these negative wealth shocks may be long-lasting. To determine whether a negative wealth shock was associated with all-cause mortality during 20 years of follow-up. The Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative prospective cohort study of US adults aged 51 through 61 years at study entry. The study population included 8714 adults, first assessed for a negative wealth shock in 1994 and followed biennially through 2014 (the most recent year of available data). Experiencing a negative wealth shock, defined as a loss of 75% or more of total net worth over a 2-year period, or asset poverty, defined as 0 or negative total net worth at study entry. Mortality data were collected from the National Death Index and postmortem interviews with family members. Marginal structural survival methods were used to account for the potential bias due to changes in health status that may both trigger negative wealth shocks and act as the mechanism through which negative wealth shocks lead to increased mortality. There were 8714 participants in the study sample (mean [SD] age at study entry, 55 [3.2] years; 53% women), 2430 experienced a negative wealth shock during follow-up, 749 had asset poverty at baseline, and 5535 had continuously positive wealth without shock. A total of 2823 deaths occurred during 80 683 person-years of follow-up. There were 30.6 vs 64.9 deaths per 1000 person-years for those with continuously positive wealth vs negative wealth shock (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.50; 95% CI, 1.36-1.67). There were 73.4 deaths per 1000 person-years for those with asset poverty at baseline (adjusted HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.44-1.94; compared with continuously positive wealth). Among US adults aged 51 years and older

Heritability of and Mortality Prediction With a Longevity Phenotype: The Healthy Aging Index

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background. Longevity-associated genes may modulate risk for age-related diseases and survival. The Healthy Aging Index (HAI) may be a subphenotype of longevity, which can be constructed in many studies for genetic analysis. We investigated the HAI’s association with survival in the Cardiovascular Health Study and heritability in the Long Life Family Study. Methods. The HAI includes systolic blood pressure, pulmonary vital capacity, creatinine, fasting glucose, and Modified Mini-Mental Status Examination score, each scored 0, 1, or 2 using approximate tertiles and summed from 0 (healthy) to 10 (unhealthy). In Cardiovascular Health Study, the association with mortality and accuracy predicting death were determined with Cox proportional hazards analysis and c-statistics, respectively. In Long Life Family Study, heritability was determined with a variance component–based family analysis using a polygenic model. Results. Cardiovascular Health Study participants with unhealthier index scores (7–10) had 2.62-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.22, 3.10) greater mortality than participants with healthier scores (0–2). The HAI alone predicted death moderately well (c-statistic = 0.643, 95% confidence interval: 0.626, 0.661, p < .0001) and slightly worse than age alone (c-statistic = 0.700, 95% confidence interval: 0.684, 0.717, p < .0001; p < .0001 for comparison of c-statistics). Prediction increased significantly with adjustment for demographics, health behaviors, and clinical comorbidities (c-statistic = 0.780, 95% confidence interval: 0.765, 0.794, p < .0001). In Long Life Family Study, the heritability of the HAI was 0.295 (p < .0001) overall, 0.387 (p < .0001) in probands, and 0.238 (p = .0004) in offspring. Conclusion. The HAI should be investigated further as a candidate phenotype for uncovering longevity-associated genes in humans. PMID:23913930

Association of BMI with risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Kee, Chee Cheong; Sumarni, Mohd Ghazali; Lim, Kuang Hock; Selvarajah, Sharmini; Haniff, Jamaiyah; Tee, Guat Hiong Helen; Gurpreet, Kaur; Faudzi, Yusoff Ahmad; Amal, Nasir Mustafa

2017-05-01

To determine the relationship between BMI and risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality among Malaysian adults. Population-based, retrospective cohort study. Participants were followed up for 5 years from 2006 to 2010. Mortality data were obtained via record linkages with the Malaysian National Registration Department. Multiple Cox regression was applied to compare risk of CVD and all-cause mortality between BMI categories adjusting for age, gender and ethnicity. Models were generated for all participants, all participants the first 2 years of follow-up, healthy participants, healthy never smokers, never smokers, current smokers and former smokers. All fourteen states in Malaysia. Malaysian adults (n 32 839) aged 18 years or above from the third National Health and Morbidity Survey. Total follow-up time was 153 814 person-years with 1035 deaths from all causes and 225 deaths from CVD. Underweight (BMI<18·5 kg/m2) was associated with a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality, while obesity (BMI ≥30·0 kg/m2) was associated with a heightened risk of CVD mortality. Overweight (BMI=25·0-29·9 kg/m2) was inversely associated with risk of all-cause mortality. Underweight was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in all models except for current smokers. Overweight was inversely associated with all-cause mortality in all participants. Although a positive trend was observed between BMI and CVD mortality in all participants, a significant association was observed only for severe obesity (BMI≥35·0 kg/m2). Underweight was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and obesity with increased risk of CVD mortality. Therefore, maintaining a normal BMI through leading an active lifestyle and healthy dietary habits should continue to be promoted.

Suicide mortality trends in young people aged 15 to 19 years in Lithuania.

PubMed

Strukcinskiene, B; Andersson, R; Janson, S

2011-11-01

This paper considers the suicide mortality trends from 1990-2009 in young people aged 15 to 19 years in Lithuania. Suicide and injury mortality data, plus mortality data from all causes, were used to compare the trend lines. Suicide mortality rate in young people aged 15-19 years and in all population showed a rising trend from 1990, and then a decreasing trend from 2002 year. This trend was significant exclusively in boys. When comparing suicide deaths as a percentage of injury deaths and of all deaths in the age group 15-19 years, rising trends for boys were evident, whilst in girls, there was no evidence of change. In Lithuania, from early 1990s, the frequency of suicide increased amongst adults and young people aged 15-19 years. After 2002, a decrease in deaths by suicide was observed both for the whole population and for young people aged 15-19 years. The rise and fall was obvious for boys. The reasons for different trends may have been influenced by the political and socioeconomic instability in the 1990-2002 period, and the socioeconomic stability, together with active preventive measures, from 2002. Although the consumption of modern Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) increased during the same time, suicide mortality was again high during the economic crisis in 2008-2009. © 2011 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica © 2011 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013.

PubMed

Haagsma, Juanita A; Graetz, Nicholas; Bolliger, Ian; Naghavi, Mohsen; Higashi, Hideki; Mullany, Erin C; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Adofo, Koranteng; Alsharif, Ubai; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Ammar, Walid; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Barrero, Lope H; Bekele, Tolesa; Bose, Dipan; Brazinova, Alexandra; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Derrett, Sarah; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Petrovich Ermakov, Sergey; Farzadfar, Farshad; Feigin, Valery L; Franklin, Richard C; Gabbe, Belinda; Gosselin, Richard A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hijar, Martha; Hu, Guoqing; Jayaraman, Sudha P; Jiang, Guohong; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kulkarni, Chanda; Lecky, Fiona E; Leung, Ricky; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan Anthony; Majdan, Marek; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Matzopoulos, Richard; Meaney, Peter A; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Miller, Ted R; Mock, Charles N; Norman, Rosana E; Orozco, Ricardo; Polinder, Suzanne; Pourmalek, Farshad; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Refaat, Amany; Rojas-Rueda, David; Roy, Nobhojit; Schwebel, David C; Shaheen, Amira; Shahraz, Saeid; Skirbekk, Vegard; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Stein, Dan J; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Temesgen, Awoke Misganaw; Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah; Theadom, Alice M; Tran, Bach Xuan; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vavilala, Monica S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yu, Chuanhua; Murray, Christopher J L; Vos, Theo

2016-02-01

The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Burden of cancer mortality and differences attributable to demographic aging and risk factors in Argentina, 1986-2011.

PubMed

Pou, Sonia Alejandra; Tumas, Natalia; Coquet, Julia Becaria; Niclis, Camila; Román, María Dolores; Díaz, María Del Pilar

2017-03-09

The world faces an aging population that implies a large number of people affected with chronic diseases. Argentina has reached an advanced stage of demographic transition and presents a comparatively high rate of cancer mortality within Latin America. The objectives of this study were to examine cancer mortality trends in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, between 1986 and 2011, and to analyze the differences attributable to risk variations and demographic changes. Longitudinal series of age-standardized mortality rates for overall, breast and prostate cancers were modeled by Joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change. The Bashir & Estève method was used to split crude mortality rate variation into three components: mortality risk, population age structure and population size. A decreasing cancer age-standardized mortality rates trend was observed (1986-2011 annual percent change: -1.4, 95%CI: -1.6, -1.2 in men; -0.8, 95%CI: -1.0, -0.6 in women), with a significant shift in 1996. There were positive crude mortality rate net changes for overall female cancer, breast and prostate cancers, which were primarily attributable to demographic changes. Inversely, overall male cancer crude mortality rate showed a 9.15% decrease, mostly due to mortality risk. Despite favorable age-standardized mortality rates trends, the influence of population aging reinforces the challenge to control cancer in populations with an increasingly aged demographic structure.

Phase angle, frailty and mortality in older adults.

PubMed

Wilhelm-Leen, Emilee R; Hall, Yoshio N; Horwitz, Ralph I; Chertow, Glenn M

2014-01-01

Frailty is a multidimensional phenotype that describes declining physical function and a vulnerability to adverse outcomes in the setting of physical stress such as illness or hospitalization. Phase angle is a composite measure of tissue resistance and reactance measured via bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA). Whether phase angle is associated with frailty and mortality in the general population is unknown. To evaluate associations among phase angle, frailty and mortality. Population-based survey. Third National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (1988-1994). In all, 4,667 persons aged 60 and older. Frailty was defined according to a set of criteria derived from a definition previously described and validated. Narrow phase angle (the lowest quintile) was associated with a four-fold higher odds of frailty among women and a three-fold higher odds of frailty among men, adjusted for age, sex, race-ethnicity and comorbidity. Over a 12-year follow-up period, the adjusted relative hazard for mortality associated with narrow phase angle was 2.4 (95 % confidence interval [95 % CI] 1.8 to 3.1) in women and 2.2 (95 % CI 1.7 to 2.9) in men. Narrow phase angle was significantly associated with mortality even among participants with little or no comorbidity. Analyses of BIA and frailty were cross-sectional; BIA was not measured serially and incident frailty during follow-up was not assessed. Participants examined at home were excluded from analysis because they did not undergo BIA. Narrow phase angle is associated with frailty and mortality independent of age and comorbidity.

Income differentials in functional disability in old age: relative risks of onset, recovery, decline, attrition and mortality.

PubMed

Broese van Groenou, Marjolein I; Deeg, Dorly J H; Penninx, Brenda W J H

2003-04-01

Socioeconomic status (SES) differences in health decline in late life may be underestimated, because the relatively higher risks of attrition of lower-SES persons are seldom taken into account. This longitudinal study aimed at comparing income differences in the course of disability, non-mortality attrition and mortality in older adults. A sample population of 3107 older adults who participated in the 1992/1993 baseline of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam was examined regarding changes in functional disability in 1998/1999. SES was indicated by household income. Multinomial regression analyses revealed that, for men without disability at baseline, the relative rate for attrition was four times higher and the mortality rate was twice as high for low-income vs high-income persons. For non-disabled women, the relative risk for the onset of disability was nearly twice as high for low-income vs high-income persons. For both men and women, these risks decreased only slightly when behavioral and psychosocial risk factors were taken into account. Among persons with disability at baseline, the relative risks for attrition (for women) and mortality (for men) were twice as high for low-income persons, but no income differences were found with respect to recovery and decline. Adjustment for risk factors decreased the relative risks for attrition and mortality to a non-significant level. Income inequality in health in late life is to a large degree explained by the higher incidence of disability among lower-status women and by the higher attrition and mortality risks among lower-status men.

Low systolic blood pressure and mortality from all causes and vascular diseases among older middle-aged men: Korean Veterans Health Study.

PubMed

Yi, Sang-Wook; Ohrr, Heechoul

2015-03-01

Recently, low systolic blood pressure (SBP) was found to be associated with an increased risk of death from vascular diseases in a rural elderly population in Korea. However, evidence on the association between low SBP and vascular diseases is scarce. The aim of this study was to prospectively examine the association between low SBP and mortality from all causes and vascular diseases in older middle-aged Korean men. From 2004 to 2010, 94 085 Korean Vietnam War veterans were followed-up for deaths. The adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard model. A stratified analysis was conducted by age at enrollment. SBP was self-reported by a postal survey in 2004. Among the participants aged 60 and older, the lowest SBP (<90 mmHg) category had an elevated aHR for mortality from all causes (aHR, 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2 to 3.1) and vascular diseases (International Classification of Disease, 10th revision, I00-I99; aHR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.2 to 8.4) compared to those with an SBP of 100 to 119 mmHg. Those with an SBP below 80 mmHg (aHR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 18.8) and those with an SBP of 80 to 89 mmHg (aHR, 3.1; 95% CI, 0.9 to 10.2) also had an increased risk of vascular mortality, compared to those with an SBP of 90 to 119 mmHg. This association was sustained when excluding the first two years of follow-up or preexisting vascular diseases. In men younger than 60 years, the association of low SBP was weaker than that in those aged 60 years or older. Our findings suggest that low SBP (<90 mmHg) may increase vascular mortality in Korean men aged 60 years or older.

Age- and sex-specific mortality and population structure in sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Burdin, A.M.; Ryazanov, D.A.

2000-01-01

We used 742 beach-cast carcasses to characterize age- and sex-specific sea otter mortality during the winter of 1990-1991 at Bering Island, Russia. We also examined 363 carcasses recovered after the 1989 grounding of the T/V Exxon Valdez, to characterize age and sex composition in the living western Prince William Sound (WPWS) sea otter population. At Bering Island, mortality was male-biased (81%), and 75% were adults. The WPWS population was female-biased (59%) and most animals were subadult (79% of the males and 45% of the females). In the decade prior to 1990-1991 we found increasing sea otter densities (particularly among males), declining prey resources, and declining weights in adult male sea otters at Bering Island. Our findings suggest the increased mortality at Bering Island in 1990-1991 was a density-dependent population response. We propose male-maintained breeding territories and exclusion of juvenile females by adult females, providing a mechanism for maintaining densities in female areas below densities in male areas and for potentially moderating the effects of prey reductions on the female population. Increased adult male mortality at Bering Island in 1990-1991 likely modified the sex and age class structure there toward that observed in Prince William Sound.

Tea consumption and mortality in the oldest-old Chinese.

PubMed

Ruan, Rongping; Feng, Lei; Li, Jialiang; Ng, Tze-Pin; Zeng, Yi

2013-11-01

To investigate the association between tea consumption and mortality in the oldest-old Chinese. Population-based longitudinal data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) were analyzed using a Cox semiparametric proportional hazard model. Six hundred thirty-one randomly selected counties and cities of China's 22 provinces. Individuals aged 80 and older (N = 9,093) who provided complete data in the baseline survey (1998). Self-reported current frequency of tea drinking and past frequency at approximately age 60 were ascertained at baseline survey; a follow-up survey was conducted 2000, 2002, and 2005. In the oldest-old Chinese, tea consumption was associated with lower risk of mortality after adjusting for demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, health practices, and health status. Compared with non-tea drinkers, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 0.90 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.84-0.96) for daily tea drinkers (at the baseline survey, 1998) and 1.00 (95% CI = 1.01-1.07) for occasional tea drinkers (P for linear trend .003). Similar results were found when tea drinking status at age 60 was used in the analysis. Further analysis showed that subjects who reported frequent tea drinking at age 60 and at the baseline survey had a 10% lower risk of mortality than subjects who reported infrequent tea drinking at age 60 and at the baseline survey (HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.84-0.97). Tea consumption is associated with lower risk of mortality in the oldest-old Chinese. © 2013, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2013, The American Geriatrics Society.

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims

PubMed Central

Sharp, Sandra M; Bevan, Gwyn; Skinner, Jonathan S; Gottlieb, Daniel J

2014-01-01

Objective To compare the performance of two new approaches to risk adjustment that are free of the influence of observational intensity with methods that depend on diagnoses listed in administrative databases. Setting Administrative data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. Design Cross sectional analysis. Participants 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in one of 306 hospital referral regions in the United States in 2007 (n=5 153 877). Main outcome measures The effect of health risk adjustment on age, sex, and race adjusted mortality and spending rates among hospital referral regions using four indices: the standard Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services—Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) index used by the US Medicare program (calculated from diagnoses listed in Medicare’s administrative database); a visit corrected HCC index (to reduce the effects of observational intensity on frequency of diagnoses); a poverty index (based on US census); and a population health index (calculated using data on incidence of hip fractures and strokes, and responses from a population based annual survey of health from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Results Estimated variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates across hospital referral regions was reduced using the indices based on population health, poverty, and visit corrected HCC, but increased using the standard HCC index. Most of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality was explained (in terms of weighted R2) by the population health index: R2=0.65. The other indices explained less: R2=0.20 for the visit corrected HCC index; 0.19 for the poverty index, and 0.02 for the standard HCC index. The residual variation in age, sex, race, and price adjusted spending per capita across the 306 hospital referral regions explained by the indices (in terms of weighted R2) were 0.50 for

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims.

PubMed

Wennberg, David E; Sharp, Sandra M; Bevan, Gwyn; Skinner, Jonathan S; Gottlieb, Daniel J; Wennberg, John E

2014-04-10

To compare the performance of two new approaches to risk adjustment that are free of the influence of observational intensity with methods that depend on diagnoses listed in administrative databases. Administrative data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. Cross sectional analysis. 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in one of 306 hospital referral regions in the United States in 2007 (n = 5,153,877). The effect of health risk adjustment on age, sex, and race adjusted mortality and spending rates among hospital referral regions using four indices: the standard Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services--Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) index used by the US Medicare program (calculated from diagnoses listed in Medicare's administrative database); a visit corrected HCC index (to reduce the effects of observational intensity on frequency of diagnoses); a poverty index (based on US census); and a population health index (calculated using data on incidence of hip fractures and strokes, and responses from a population based annual survey of health from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Estimated variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates across hospital referral regions was reduced using the indices based on population health, poverty, and visit corrected HCC, but increased using the standard HCC index. Most of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality was explained (in terms of weighted R2) by the population health index: R2=0.65. The other indices explained less: R2=0.20 for the visit corrected HCC index; 0.19 for the poverty index, and 0.02 for the standard HCC index. The residual variation in age, sex, race, and price adjusted spending per capita across the 306 hospital referral regions explained by the indices (in terms of weighted R2) were 0.50 for the standard HCC index, 0.21 for the population health index, 0.12 for the

Premature mortality in the U.S.-- trends by race, ethnicity, age, and region

Cancer.gov

DCEG scientists are spearheading the Premature Mortality Project—an interdisciplinary, multi-institutional effort to characterize U.S. trends in premature mortality. In the process, the team has uncovered distinct mortality trends by race, ethnicity, age, and region, and provided crucial information about the ongoing,

Six-year mortality in a street-recruited cohort of homeless youth in San Francisco, California.

PubMed

Auerswald, Colette L; Lin, Jessica S; Parriott, Andrea

2016-01-01

Objectives. The mortality rate of a street-recruited homeless youth cohort in the United States has not yet been reported. We examined the six-year mortality rate for a cohort of street youth recruited from San Francisco street venues in 2004. Methods. Using data collected from a longitudinal, venue-based sample of street youth 15-24 years of age, we calculated age, race, and gender-adjusted mortality rates. Results. Of a sample of 218 participants, 11 died from enrollment in 2004 to December 31, 2010. The majority of deaths were due to suicide and/or substance abuse. The death rate was 9.6 deaths per hundred thousand person-years. The age, race and gender-adjusted standardized mortality ratio was 10.6 (95% CI [5.3-18.9]). Gender specific SMRs were 16.1 (95% CI [3.3-47.1]) for females and 9.4 (95% CI [4.0-18.4]) for males. Conclusions. Street-recruited homeless youth in San Francisco experience a mortality rate in excess of ten times that of the state's general youth population. Services and programs, particularly housing, mental health and substance abuse interventions, are urgently needed to prevent premature mortality in this vulnerable population.

Tissue advanced glycation end products (AGEs), measured by skin autofluorescence, predict mortality in peritoneal dialysis.

PubMed

Siriopol, Dimitrie; Hogas, Simona; Veisa, Gabriel; Mititiuc, Irina; Volovat, Carmen; Apetrii, Mugurel; Onofriescu, Mihai; Busila, Irina; Oleniuc, Mihaela; Covic, Adrian

2015-03-01

The relation between tissue AGEs and mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is documented, but only in hemodialysis (HD) patients. This study aimed to measure and compare tissue AGEs levels in patients receiving either HD or peritoneal dialysis (PD) and to study the effect of these products on all-cause, cardiovascular or sepsis-related mortality. Tissue AGEs were noninvasively assessed in 304 dialysis patients (202 on chronic HD and 102 on continuous ambulatory PD) by measuring skin autofluorescence using a validated Autofluorescence Reader (AGE Reader, DiagnOptics b.v., Groningen, The Netherlands). There was no difference in regard to AGEs levels between the HD (3.6 ± 0.8 AU)- and PD (3.5 ± 0.7 AU, p = 0.2)-treated patients. Diabetic patients had higher AGEs values in the HD group (3.97 ± 0.81 vs. 3.52 ± 0.77, p = 0.002), but not in the PD group (3.68 ± 0.6 vs. 3.45 ± 0.70, p = 0.26). In PD patients, increasing AGEs levels were associated with an elevated risk of all-cause mortality (a 2.09-fold increase for each increment of 1 AU in AGEs values) and sepsis (a 3.44-fold increase for each increment of 1 AU in AGEs values)-related mortality. Performing a similar analysis in diabetic patients, AGEs was associated only with sepsis-related mortality (a 3.08-fold increase for each increment of 1 AU in AGEs values). This is the first study that demonstrates a relationship between tissue AGEs levels and sepsis-related mortality in PD-treated or diabetic ESRD patients. Future studies are necessary to evaluate the non-cardiovascular effects of tissue AGEs in ESRD patients.

Socioeconomic disparity in inpatient mortality after traumatic injury in adults.

PubMed

Ali, Mays T; Hui, Xuan; Hashmi, Zain G; Dhiman, Nitasha; Scott, Valerie K; Efron, David T; Schneider, Eric B; Haider, Adil H

2013-09-01

Prior studies have demonstrated that race and insurance status predict inpatient trauma mortality, but have been limited by their inability to adjust for direct measures of socioeconomic status (SES) and comorbidities. Our study aimed to identify whether a relationship exists between SES and inpatient trauma mortality after adjusting for known confounders. Trauma patients aged 18-65 years with an Injury Severity Scores (ISS) of ≥9 were identified using the 2003-2009 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Median household income (MHI) by zip code, available by quartiles, was used to measure SES. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to determine odds of inpatient mortality by MHI quartile, adjusting for ISS, type of injury, comorbidities, and patient demographics. In all, 267,621 patients met inclusion criteria. Patients in lower wealth quartiles had significantly greater unadjusted inpatient mortality compared with the wealthiest quartile. Adjusted odds of death were also higher compared with the wealthiest quartile for Q1 (odds ratio [OR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.20), Q2 (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.02-1.17), and Q3 (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04-1.19). MHI predicts inpatient mortality after adult trauma, even after adjusting for race, insurance status, and comorbidities. Efforts to mitigate trauma disparities should address SES as an independent predictor of outcomes. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Relative deprivation in income and mortality by leading causes among older Japanese men and women: AGES cohort study.

PubMed

Kondo, Naoki; Saito, Masashige; Hikichi, Hiroyuki; Aida, Jun; Ojima, Toshiyuki; Kondo, Katsunori; Kawachi, Ichiro

2015-07-01

Relative deprivation of income is hypothesised to generate frustration and stress through upward social comparison with one's peers. If psychosocial stress is the mechanism, relative deprivation should be more strongly associated with specific health outcomes, such as cardiovascular disease (compared with other health outcomes, eg, non-tobacco-related cancer). We evaluated the association between relative income deprivation and mortality by leading causes, using a cohort of 21 031 community-dwelling adults aged 65 years or older. A baseline mail-in survey was conducted in 2003. Information on cause-specific mortality was obtained from death certificates. Our relative deprivation measure was the Yitzhaki Index, derived from the aggregate income shortfall for each person, relative to individuals with higher incomes in that person's reference group. Reference groups were defined according to gender, age group and same municipality of residence. We identified 1682 deaths during the 4.5 years of follow-up. A Cox regression demonstrated that, after controlling for demographic, health and socioeconomic factors including income, the HR for death from cardiovascular diseases per SD increase in relative deprivation was 1.50 (95% CI 1.09 to 2.08) in men, whereas HRs for mortality by cancer and other diseases were close to the null value. Additional adjustment for depressive symptoms and health behaviours (eg, smoking and preventive care utilisation) attenuated the excess risks for mortality from cardiovascular disease by 9%. Relative deprivation was not associated with mortality for women. The results partially support our hypothesised mechanism: relative deprivation increases health risks via psychosocial stress among men. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Paradise Lost: Age-Dependent Mortality of American Communes, 1609-1965

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kitts, James A.

2009-01-01

Theorists agree that the risk of folding changes as organizations age, but there is little consensus as to the general form or generative processes of age-dependent mortality. This article investigates four such processes (maturation, senescence, legitimation and obsolescence), which have been taken as competing accounts. Using two analytical…

Racial segregation, income inequality, and mortality in US metropolitan areas.

PubMed

Nuru-Jeter, Amani M; LaVeist, Thomas A

2011-04-01

Evidence of the association between income inequality and mortality has been mixed. Studies indicate that growing income inequalities reflect inequalities between, rather than within, racial groups. Racial segregation may play a role. We examine the role of racial segregation on the relationship between income inequality and mortality in a cross-section of US metropolitan areas. Metropolitan areas were included if they had a population of at least 100,000 and were at least 10% black (N = 107). Deaths for the time period 1991-1999 were used to calculate age-adjusted all-cause mortality rates for each metropolitan statistical area (MSA) using direct age-adjustment techniques. Multivariate least squares regression was used to examine associations for the total sample and for blacks and whites separately. Income inequality was associated with lower mortality rates among whites and higher mortality rates among blacks. There was a significant interaction between income inequality and racial segregation. A significant graded inverse income inequality/mortality association was found for MSAs with higher versus lower levels of black-white racial segregation. Effects were stronger among whites than among blacks. A positive income inequality/mortality association was found in MSAs with higher versus lower levels of Hispanic-white segregation. Uncertainty regarding the income inequality/mortality association found in previous studies may be related to the omission of important variables such as racial segregation that modify associations differently between groups. Research is needed to further elucidate the risk and protective effects of racial segregation across groups.

Volunteering by older adults and risk of mortality: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Okun, Morris A; Yeung, Ellen WanHeung; Brown, Stephanie

2013-06-01

Organizational volunteering has been touted as an effective strategy for older adults to help themselves while helping others. Extending previous reviews, we carried out a meta-analysis of the relation between organizational volunteering by late-middle-aged and older adults (minimum age = 55 years old) and risk of mortality. We focused on unadjusted effect sizes (i.e., bivariate relations), adjusted effect sizes (i.e., controlling for other variables such as health), and interaction effect sizes (e.g., the joint effect of volunteering and religiosity). For unadjusted effect sizes, on average, volunteering reduced mortality risk by 47%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 38% to 55%. For adjusted effect sizes, on average, volunteering reduced mortality risk by 24%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 16% to 31%. For interaction effect sizes, we found preliminary support that as public religiosity increases, the inverse relation between volunteering and mortality risk becomes stronger. The discussion identifies several unresolved issues and directions for future research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Developing a burn injury severity score (BISS): adding age and total body surface area burned to the injury severity score (ISS) improves mortality concordance.

PubMed

Cassidy, J Tristan; Phillips, Michael; Fatovich, Daniel; Duke, Janine; Edgar, Dale; Wood, Fiona

2014-08-01

There is limited research validating the injury severity score (ISS) in burns. We examined the concordance of ISS with burn mortality. We hypothesized that combining age and total body surface area (TBSA) burned to the ISS gives a more accurate mortality risk estimate. Data from the Royal Perth Hospital Trauma Registry and the Royal Perth Hospital Burns Minimum Data Set were linked. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) measured concordance of ISS with mortality. Using logistic regression models with death as the dependent variable we developed a burn-specific injury severity score (BISS). There were 1344 burns with 24 (1.8%) deaths, median TBSA 5% (IQR 2-10), and median age 36 years (IQR 23-50). The results show ISS is a good predictor of death for burns when ISS≤15 (OR 1.29, p=0.02), but not for ISS>15 (ISS 16-24: OR 1.09, p=0.81; ISS 25-49: OR 0.81, p=0.19). Comparing the AUCs adjusted for age, gender and cause, ISS of 84% (95% CI 82-85%) and BISS of 95% (95% CI 92-98%), demonstrated superior performance of BISS as a mortality predictor for burns. ISS is a poor predictor of death in severe burns. The BISS combines ISS with age and TBSA and performs significantly better than the ISS. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Mortality and prostate cancer risk in 19,598 men after surgery for benign prostatic hyperplasia.

PubMed

Holman, C D; Wisniewski, Z S; Semmens, J B; Rouse, I L; Bass, A J

1999-07-01

To examine postoperative mortality and prostate cancer risk after the first prostatectomy for benign prostatic hypertrophy over a 17-year period in a population-based cohort of men in Western Australia, using improved methods to adjust for comorbidity. The relative survival from death and prostate cancer incidence was calculated against the background population rates. The outcomes of transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) and open prostatectomy (OP) were compared adjusting for calendar year, age, admission type and comorbidity using Cox regression. Fractional polynomials were used to take account of nonlinearity in confounder effects. At 10 years, the relative survival was 116.5% in TURP patients and 123.5% after OP. Adjusting only for confounding by age, calendar year and admission type, TURP had a higher mortality rate than OP (rate ratio, RR, 1. 20; 95% confidence interval 1.08-1.34). The RR fell to 1.10 (0.99-1. 23) after adjustment for comorbidity and to 1.07 (0.95-1.19) when accounting for nonlinearity. The relative survival from the incidence of prostate cancer at 10 years was 103.7% after TURP and 104.5% after OP. The RR adjusted for age and calendar year was 1.44 (0.94-2.21) for incidence and 1.37 (0.81-2.29) for prostate cancer mortality. There is at most a small and clinically unimportant excess mortality risk from TURP; any difference could be due to a protective effect of OP on the long-term risk of prostate cancer and a lower rate of repeat prostatectomy.

A model framework for mortality and health data classified by age, area, and time.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2006-03-01

This article sets out a modeling framework for modeling health outcomes over area, age, and time dimensions that takes account of spatial correlation, interactions between dimensions, and cohort as well as age effects. The goals of the framework include parsimony and parameter interpretability. Multivariate extensions may be made allowing interdependent or shared effects between different outcomes (e.g., ill health and mortality). A particular focus is on assessing the proportionality assumption whereby separate age and area effects multiply to produce age-area mortality or illness rates, and age-area interactions are assumed not to exist. A trivariate (mortality-health) application of the framework involves cross-sectional data in the 33 London boroughs, while a longitudinal univariate application involves deaths for the same areas over four 5-year periods starting in 1979.

Living Conditions, Low Socioeconomic Position, and Mortality in the Ibadan Study of Aging.

PubMed

Ojagbemi, Akin; Bello, Toyin; Luo, Zhehui; Gureje, Oye

2017-07-01

Very little is known about socioeconomic differentials in mortality among persons surviving to old age in sub-Saharan Africa. We report on the impact of low socioeconomic position (SEP) on mortality over a 5-year observation period among community-dwelling older adults living in southwestern Nigeria. Data are from a household multistage probability sample of 2,149 Yoruba Nigerians aged 65 years or older. We collected information on indices related to health and well-being at baseline (2003/2004). Socioeconomic positions were estimated using asset-based measures relevant to low income settings. Information on mortality was obtained by research supervisors in multiple waves (2007, 2008, and 2009). Associations between baseline covariates and mortality were explored using discrete time survival models and life tables. We recorded 357 deaths over 5 years, or an annual mortality rate of 4.7% (95% CI = 4.2-5.2). Being 80 years or older (HR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.1-2.5) and belonging to the lowest SEP (HR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.1-2.1) were the main predictors of mortality. The significant effect of lowest SEP on mortality risk over the study period was independent of age, gender, education, rural or urban residence, weight, physical activity level, and social engagement. In this sample of older persons living in an economically disadvantaged context, we found persistent socioeconomic differentials in mortality estimated, conservatively, over 5 years. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Mortality characteristics of aortic root surgery in North America†

PubMed Central

Caceres, Manuel; Ma, Yicheng; Rankin, J. Scott; Saha-Chaudhuri, Paramita; Englum, Brian R.; Gammie, James S.; Suri, Rakesh M.; Thourani, Vinod H.; Esmailian, Fardad; Czer, Lawrence S.; Puskas, John D.; Svensson, Lars G.

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES Aortic root surgery is transitioning to aortic valve sparing (AVS), but little is known about the relative early outcomes of AVS versus composite graft-valve replacement (CVR). This study assessed mortality differences for AVS versus CVR to guide future practice decisions. METHODS From January 2000 to June 2011, 31 747 patients had aortic root replacement with AVS (n = 3585; 11%) or CVR (n = 28 162; 89%). The cohort of Overall patients was divided into two subgroups: high-risk patients (n = 20 356; 6% AVS) having age >75 years, endocarditis, aortic stenosis, dialysis, multiple valves, reoperation or emergency/salvage status, and the remaining low-risk patients (n = 11 388; 21% AVS). Using logistic regression analysis, outcomes were presented as unadjusted operative mortality (UOM), risk-adjusted operative mortality (AOM) and adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for mortality. RESULTS Baseline characteristics for the Overall group (AVS versus CVR) were: mean age (52 vs 57 years), endocarditis (1 vs 11%), aortic stenosis (4 vs 36%), dialysis (1 vs 2%), multiple valves (7 vs 10%), reoperation (6 vs 17%) and emergency status (14 vs 12%) (all P < 0.0001). In high- and low-risk groups, baseline differences narrowed, and lower mortality was generally observed with AVS: (AVS versus CVR) UOM group Overall (4.5 vs 8.9%)*, group High-risk (10.5 vs 11.7%), group Low-risk (1.4 vs 3.1%)*; AOM group Overall (6.2 vs 8.6%), group High-risk (10.1 vs 11.7%), group Low-risk (2.2 vs 2.8%); AOR group Overall (0.59)*, group High-risk (0.62)*, group Low-risk (0.69). *P < 0.05. CONCLUSIONS Relative risk-adjusted mortality seemed comparable with AVS versus CVR in low- and high-risk subgroups. These data support judicious expansion of aortic valve repair in patients having aortic root replacement. PMID:24639452

Cardiovascular mortality sex differentials in selected East Asian and Western populations.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiaying; Booth, Heather; Dear, Keith; Tu, Edward Jow-Ching

2016-10-01

Explaining patterns in the sex ratio (male/female) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality would improve understanding of mortality transitions under modernisation. Little research has examined secular trends in this ratio across populations, taking age and cohort into account. We examine cohort effects in the ratios of CVD mortality (including ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease) among 4 East Asian populations that vary in the timing of their modernisation, and assess the effect of smoking on these patterns in comparison with Western populations. The sequential method for log-linear models is applied to analyse age, period and cohort effects for sex ratios. Age and cohort effects are fitted first, with population as offset; period effects are fitted in a second model using the fitted values from the first model as the offset. Lung cancer mortality serves as a proxy for smoking. Increases in sex ratios of CVD mortality began in earlier cohorts in Western than in East Asian populations. Once begun, increases were more rapid in East Asia. The cohort effect for the sex ratio of CVD mortality differs from that for lung cancer mortality. Trends in sex ratios of CVD mortality by cohort are similar before and after adjustment for lung cancer mortality in East Asia; the increasing trend across 1900-1945 cohorts is maintained in Western populations after adjustment. The sex ratio of CVD mortality has increased across successive cohorts living in increasingly modernised environments. There is scant evidence that this increase is attributable to changing sex-specific rates of smoking. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Impact of age at diagnosis and duration of type 2 diabetes on mortality in Australia 1997-2011.

PubMed

Huo, Lili; Magliano, Dianna J; Rancière, Fanny; Harding, Jessica L; Nanayakkara, Natalie; Shaw, Jonathan E; Carstensen, Bendix

2018-05-01

Current evidence suggests that type 2 diabetes may have a greater impact on those with earlier diagnosis (longer duration of disease), but data are limited. We examined the effect of age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes on the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality over 15 years. The data of 743,709 Australians with type 2 diabetes who were registered on the National Diabetes Services Scheme (NDSS) between 1997 and 2011 were examined. Mortality data were derived by linking the NDSS to the National Death Index. All-cause mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and all other causes were identified. Poisson regression was used to model mortality rates by sex, current age, age at diagnosis, diabetes duration and calendar time. The median age at registration on the NDSS was 60.2 years (interquartile range [IQR] 50.9-69.5) and the median follow-up was 7.2 years (IQR 3.4-11.3). The median age at diagnosis was 58.6 years (IQR 49.4-67.9). A total of 115,363 deaths occurred during 7.20 million person-years of follow-up. During the first 1.8 years after diabetes diagnosis, rates of all-cause and cancer mortality declined and CVD mortality was constant. All mortality rates increased exponentially with age. An earlier diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (longer duration of disease) was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality, primarily driven by CVD mortality. A 10 year earlier diagnosis (equivalent to 10 years' longer duration of diabetes) was associated with a 1.2-1.3 times increased risk of all-cause mortality and about 1.6 times increased risk of CVD mortality. The effects were similar in men and women. For mortality due to cancer (all cancers and colorectal and lung cancers), we found that earlier diagnosis of type 2 diabetes was associated with lower mortality compared with diagnosis at an older age. Our findings suggest that younger-onset type 2 diabetes increases mortality risk, and that this is mainly through earlier CVD

The Effect of Neurobehavioral Test Performance on the All-Cause Mortality among US Population

PubMed Central

Wu, Li-Wei; Liaw, Fang-Yih; Wang, Gia-Chi; Wang, Chung-Ching

2016-01-01

Evidence of the association between global cognitive function and mortality is much, but whether specific cognitive function is related to mortality is unclear. To address the paucity of knowledge on younger populations in the US, we analyzed the association between specific cognitive function and mortality in young and middle-aged adults. We analyzed data from 5,144 men and women between 20 and 59 years of age in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988–94) with mortality follow-up evaluation through 2006. Cognitive function tests, including assessments of executive function/processing speed (symbol digit substitution) and learning recall/short-term memory (serial digit learning), were performed. All-cause mortality was the outcome of interest. After adjusting for multiple variables, total mortality was significantly higher in males with poorer executive function/processing speed (hazard ratio (HR) 2.02; 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 2.99) and poorer recall/short-term memory (HR 1.47; 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 2.12). After adjusting for multiple variables, the mortality risk did not significantly increase among the females in these two cognitive tests groups. In this sample of the US population, poorer executive function/processing speed and poorer learning recall/short-term memory were significantly associated with increased mortality rates, especially in males. This study highlights the notion that poorer specific cognitive function predicts all-cause mortality in young and middle-aged males. PMID:27595105

Unintentional drowning mortality, by age and body of water: an analysis of 60 countries.

PubMed

Lin, Ching-Yih; Wang, Yi-Fong; Lu, Tsung-Hsueh; Kawach, Ichiro

2015-04-01

To examine unintentional drowning mortality by age and body of water across 60 countries, to provide a starting point for further in-depth investigations within individual countries. The latest available three years of mortality data for each country were extracted from WHO Health Statistics and Information Services (updated at 13 November 2013). We calculated mortality rate of unintentional drowning by age group for each country. For countries using International Classification of Disease 10 (ICD-10) detailed 3 or 4 Character List, we further examined the body of water involved. A huge variation in age-standardised mortality rate (deaths per 100 000 population) was noted, from 0.12 in Turkey to 9.19 in Guyana. Of the ten countries with the highest age-standardised mortality rate, six (Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Russia, Ukraine and Moldova) were in Eastern Europe and two (Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan) were in Central Asia. Some countries (Japan, Finland and Greece) had a relatively low rank in mortality rate among children aged 0-4 years, but had a high rank in mortality rate among older adults. On the contrary, South Africa and Colombia had a relatively high rank among children aged 0-4 years, but had a relatively low rank in mortality rate among older adults. With regard to body of water involved, the proportion involving a bathtub was extremely high in Japan (65%) followed by Canada (11%) and the USA (11%). Of the 13 634 drowning deaths involving bathtubs in Japan between 2009 and 2011, 12 038 (88%) were older adults aged 65 years or above. The percentage involving a swimming pool was high in the USA (18%), Australia (13%), and New Zealand (7%). The proportion involving natural water was high in Finland (93%), Panama (87%), and Lithuania (85%). After considering the completeness of reporting and quality of classifying drowning deaths across countries, we conclude that drowning is a high-priority public health problem in Eastern Europe, Central Asia

Anthropometric trends and the risk of cardiovascular disease mortality in a Lithuanian urban population aged 45–64 years

PubMed Central

Luksiene, Dalia; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Virviciute, Dalia; Bernotiene, Gailute; Peasey, Anne

2015-01-01

Aims: To estimate trends in anthropometric indexes from 1992 to 2008 and to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular disease mortality in relation to anthropometric indexes (body mass index, waist circumference, waist:hip ratio, waist:height ratio). Methods: Data from the three surveys (1992–2008) are presented. A random sample of 5147 subjects aged 45–64 years was selected for statistical analysis. During follow-up there were 141 deaths from cardiovascular disease (excluding those with cardiovascular disease at entry). Cox’s regression was used to estimate the associations between anthropometric indexes and cardiovascular disease mortality. Results: During a 17-year period among men, the prevalence of obesity (body mass index ⩾30 kg/m2) increased from 18.4% to 32.1% (p<0.001) and a high level of waist:hip ratio (>0.9) from 59.3% to 72.9% (p<0.001). The risk profile of obesity did not change in women, but prevalence of a high level of waist:hip ratio (>0.85) increased from 25.9% to 41.5% (p<0.001). Multivariable-adjusted Cox’s regression models showed that body mass index, waist circumference, waist:hip ratio, waist:height ratio were associated with cardiovascular disease mortality risk only in men (hazard ratios 1.40, 1.45, 1.49, 1.46 respectively (p<0.01)). Conclusions: Our data indicate that anthropometric measures such as body mass index, waist circumference, waist:hip ratio and waist:height ratio are good indicators of cardiovascular disease mortality risk only in men aged 45–64 years. PMID:26261188

Severely Elevated Blood Pressure and Early Mortality in Children with Traumatic Brain Injuries: The Neglected End of the Spectrum

PubMed Central

Borgman, Matthew A.; Cannon, Jeremy W.; Kuppermann, Nathan; Neff, Lucas P.

2018-01-01

Introduction In adults with traumatic brain injuries (TBI), hypotension and hypertension at presentation are associated with mortality. The effect of age-adjusted blood pressure in children with TBI has been insufficiently studied. We sought to determine if age-adjusted hypertension in children with severe TBI is associated with mortality. Methods This was a retrospective analysis of the Department of Defense Trauma Registry (DoDTR) between 2001 and 2013. We included for analysis patients <18 years with severe TBI defined as Abbreviated Injury Severity (AIS) scores of the head ≥3. We defined hypertension as moderate for systolic blood pressures (SBP) between the 95th and 99th percentile for age and gender and severe if greater than the 99th percentile. Hypotension was defined as SBP <90 mmHg for children >10 years or < 70mmHg + (2 × age) for children ≤10 years. We performed multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression to determine if BP categories were associated with mortality. Results Of 4,990 children included in the DoDTR, 740 met criteria for analysis. Fifty patients (6.8%) were hypotensive upon arrival to the ED, 385 (52.0%) were normotensive, 115 (15.5%) had moderate hypertension, and 190 (25.7%) had severe hypertension. When compared to normotensive patients, moderate and severe hypertension patients had similar Injury Severity Scores, similar AIS head scores, and similar frequencies of neurosurgical procedures. Multivariable logistic regression demonstrated that hypotension (odd ratio [OR] 2.85, 95 confidence interval [CI] 1.26–6.47) and severe hypertension (OR 2.58, 95 CI 1.32–5.03) were associated with increased 24-hour mortality. Neither hypotension (Hazard ratio (HR) 1.52, 95 CI 0.74–3.11) nor severe hypertension (HR 1.65, 95 CI 0.65–2.30) was associated with time to mortality. Conclusion Pediatric age-adjusted hypertension is frequent after severe TBI. Severe hypertension is strongly associated with 24-hour mortality. Pediatric

Severely Elevated Blood Pressure and Early Mortality in Children with Traumatic Brain Injuries: The Neglected End of the Spectrum.

PubMed

Johnson, M Austin; Borgman, Matthew A; Cannon, Jeremy W; Kuppermann, Nathan; Neff, Lucas P

2018-05-01

In adults with traumatic brain injuries (TBI), hypotension and hypertension at presentation are associated with mortality. The effect of age-adjusted blood pressure in children with TBI has been insufficiently studied. We sought to determine if age-adjusted hypertension in children with severe TBI is associated with mortality. This was a retrospective analysis of the Department of Defense Trauma Registry (DoDTR) between 2001 and 2013. We included for analysis patients <18 years with severe TBI defined as Abbreviated Injury Severity (AIS) scores of the head ≥3. We defined hypertension as moderate for systolic blood pressures (SBP) between the 95 th and 99 th percentile for age and gender and severe if greater than the 99th percentile. Hypotension was defined as SBP <90 mmHg for children >10 years or < 70mmHg + (2 × age) for children ≤10 years. We performed multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression to determine if BP categories were associated with mortality. Of 4,990 children included in the DoDTR, 740 met criteria for analysis. Fifty patients (6.8%) were hypotensive upon arrival to the ED, 385 (52.0%) were normotensive, 115 (15.5%) had moderate hypertension, and 190 (25.7%) had severe hypertension. When compared to normotensive patients, moderate and severe hypertension patients had similar Injury Severity Scores, similar AIS head scores, and similar frequencies of neurosurgical procedures. Multivariable logistic regression demonstrated that hypotension (odd ratio [OR] 2.85, 95 confidence interval [CI] 1.26-6.47) and severe hypertension (OR 2.58, 95 CI 1.32-5.03) were associated with increased 24-hour mortality. Neither hypotension (Hazard ratio (HR) 1.52, 95 CI 0.74-3.11) nor severe hypertension (HR 1.65, 95 CI 0.65-2.30) was associated with time to mortality. Pediatric age-adjusted hypertension is frequent after severe TBI. Severe hypertension is strongly associated with 24-hour mortality. Pediatric age-adjusted blood pressure needs to be further

Age, period, and birth cohort-specific effects on cervical cancer mortality rates in Japanese women and projections for mortality rates over 20-year period (2012-2031).

PubMed

Uchida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Mizuki; Hosobuchi, Ami; Ohta, Ayano; Ohtake, Kazuo; Yamaki, Tutomu; Uchida, Masaki; Odagiri, Youichi; Natsume, Hideshi; Kobayashi, Jun

2014-01-01

We aimed to determine the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on cervical cancer mortality rate trends in Japanese women, by age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Additionally, we analyzed projected mortality rates. We obtained data on the number of cervical cancer deaths in Japanese women from 1975-2011 from the national vital statistics and census population data. A cohort table of mortality rate data was analyzed on the basis of a Bayesian APC model. We also projected the mortality rates for the 2012-2031 period. The period effect was relatively limited, compared with the age and cohort effects. The age effect increased suddenly from 25-29 to 45-49 years of age and gently increased thereafter. An analysis of the cohort effect on mortality rate trends revealed a steep decreasing slope for birth cohorts born from 1908-1940 and a subsequent sudden increase after 1945. The mortality rate projections indicated increasing trends from 40 to 74 years of age until the year 2031. The age effect increased from 25-29 years of age. This could be attributable to the high human papilloma virus (HPV) infection risk and the low cervical cancer screening rate. The cohort effect changed from decreasing to increasing after the early 1940s. This might be attributable to the spread of cervical cancer screening and treatment before 1940 and the high HPV infection risk and reduced cervical cancer screening rate after 1945. The projected mortality rate indicated an increasing trend until the year 2031.

Fertility and mortality in India during 1951-1971.

PubMed

Sinha, U P

1976-03-01

Statistical corrections found necessary to draw up a set of life tab les for the International Institute for Population Studies are discussed . The 1971 Census of India enumerated 547,949,809 persons, 13 million short of the estimate by the Census Actuary. Although the fluid migration situation may have complicated the figures, the real problem seems to be overestimation of the drop in death rates and underestimation of the adoption of family planning. Also, the Census Actuary borrowed infant mortality rates observed by the National Sample Survey without adjusting for underestimation of vital events. This results in underestimation of childhood mortality. The smoothed age distributions of 1961 seem different from the ones of 1951. There is a 2% difference in the proportion of children below 5 years of age, a figure that does not seem possible due to mortality decline alone in the 10-year period. Population projections using the method derived have been very close to enumerated populations and the vital rates are close to estimates of other authors and surveys. It is possible the Sample Re gistration Scheme did not make adjustments for events missed by the enumerator and, subsequently, by the supervisor.

American-Indian diabetes mortality in the Great Plains Region 2002–2010

PubMed Central

Kelley, Allyson; Giroux, Jennifer; Schulz, Mark; Aronson, Bob; Wallace, Debra; Bell, Ronny; Morrison, Sharon

2015-01-01

Objective To compare American-Indian and Caucasian mortality rates from diabetes among tribal Contract Health Service Delivery Areas (CHSDAs) in the Great Plains Region (GPR) and describe the disparities observed. Research design and methods Mortality data from the National Center for Vital Statistics and Seer*STAT were used to identify diabetes as the underlying cause of death for each decedent in the GPR from 2002 to 2010. Mortality data were abstracted and aggregated for American-Indians and Caucasians for 25 reservation CHSDAs in the GPR. Rate ratios (RR) with 95% CIs were used and SEER*Stat V.8.0.4 software calculated age-adjusted diabetes mortality rates. Results Age-adjusted mortality rates for American-Indians were significantly higher than those for Caucasians during the 8-year period. In the GPR, American-Indians were 3.44 times more likely to die from diabetes than Caucasians. South Dakota had the highest RR (5.47 times that of Caucasians), and Iowa had the lowest RR, (1.1). Reservation CHSDA RR ranged from 1.78 to 10.25. Conclusions American-Indians in the GPR have higher diabetes mortality rates than Caucasians in the GPR. Mortality rates among American-Indians persist despite special programs and initiatives aimed at reducing diabetes in these populations. Effective and immediate efforts are needed to address premature diabetes mortality among American-Indians in the GPR. PMID:25926992

Trends in ischemic heart disease mortality in Korea, 1985-2009: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed