Climate, demography and lek stability in an Amazonian bird.

PubMed

Ryder, Thomas B; Sillett, T Scott

2016-01-27

Lekking is a rare, but iconic mating system where polygynous males aggregate and perform group displays to attract females. Existing theory postulates that demographic and environmental stability are required for lekking to be an evolutionarily viable reproductive strategy. However, we lack empirical tests for the hypotheses that lek stability is facilitated by age-specific variation in demographic rates, and by predictable, abundant resources. To address this knowledge gap, we use multistate models to examine how two demographic elements of lek stability-male survival and recruitment-vary with age, social status and phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a Neotropical frugivorous bird, the wire-tailed manakin (Pipra filicauda). Our results show that demographic and environmental conditions were related to lek stability in the Ecuadorean Amazon. Apparent annual survival probability of territorial males was higher than that of non-territorial floaters, and recruitment probability increased as males progressed in an age-graded queue. Moreover, annual survival of territorial males and body condition of both floaters and territory holders were higher following years with El Niño conditions, associated with reduced rainfall and probably higher fruit production in the northern Neotropics, and lower after years with wet, La Niña conditions that predominated our study. Recruitment probabilities varied annually, independent of ENSO phase, and increased over our study period, but the annual mean number of territorial males per lek declined. Our results provide empirical support for hypothesized demographic and environmental drivers of lek dynamics. This study also suggests that climate-mediated changes in resource availability can affect demography and subsequent lek stability in a relatively buffered, lowland rainforest. © 2016 The Author(s).

Prediction of Conditional Probability of Survival After Surgery for Gastric Cancer: A Study Based on Eastern and Western Large Data Sets.

PubMed

Zhong, Qing; Chen, Qi-Yue; Li, Ping; Xie, Jian-Wei; Wang, Jia-Bin; Lin, Jian-Xian; Lu, Jun; Cao, Long-Long; Lin, Mi; Tu, Ru-Hong; Zheng, Chao-Hui; Huang, Chang-Ming

2018-04-20

The dynamic prognosis of patients who have undergone curative surgery for gastric cancer has yet to be reported. Our objective was to devise an accurate tool for predicting the conditional probability of survival for these patients. We analyzed 11,551 gastric cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Two-thirds of the patients were selected randomly for the development set and one-third for the validation set. Two nomograms were constructed to predict the conditional probability of overall survival and the conditional probability of disease-specific survival, using conditional survival methods. We then applied these nomograms to the 4,001 patients in the database from Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, China, one of the most active Chinese institutes. The 5-year conditional probability of overall survival of the patients was 41.6% immediately after resection and increased to 52.8%, 68.2%, and 80.4% at 1, 2, and 3 years after gastrectomy. The 5-year conditional probability of disease-specific survival "increased" from 48.9% at the time of gastrectomy to 59.8%, 74.7%, and 85.5% for patients surviving 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Sex; race; age; depth of tumor invasion; lymph node metastasis; and tumor size, site, and grade were associated with overall survival and disease-specific survival (P <.05). Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results validation set, the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.77, 0.81, 0.82, and 0.82 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years after gastrectomy, respectively. Within the other validation set from the Fujian Medical University Union Hospital (n = 4,001), the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.76, 0.79, 0.77, and 0.77 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. The accuracy of the conditional probability of disease-specific survival model was also favorable. The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and observed survival rates. Based on the large Eastern and Western data sets, we developed and validated the first conditional nomogram for prediction of conditional probability of survival for patients with gastric cancer to allow consideration of the duration of survivorship. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying HIV care enrollees at-risk for cannabis use disorder.

PubMed

Hartzler, Bryan; Carlini, Beatriz H; Newville, Howard; Crane, Heidi M; Eron, Joseph J; Geng, Elvin H; Mathews, W Christopher; Mayer, Kenneth H; Moore, Richard D; Mugavero, Michael J; Napravnik, Sonia; Rodriguez, Benigno; Donovan, Dennis M

2017-07-01

Increased scientific attention given to cannabis in the United States has particular relevance for its domestic HIV care population, given that evidence exists for both cannabis as a therapeutic agent and cannabis use disorder (CUD) as a barrier to antiretroviral medication adherence. It is critical to identify relative risk for CUD among demographic subgroups of HIV patients, as this will inform detection and intervention efforts. A Center For AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems cohort (N = 10,652) of HIV-positive adults linked to care at seven United State sites was examined for this purpose. Based on a patient-report instrument with validated diagnostic threshold for CUD, the prevalence of recent cannabis use and corresponding conditional probabilities for CUD were calculated for the aggregate sample and demographic subgroups. Generalized estimating equations then tested models directly examining patient demographic indices as predictors of CUD, while controlling for history and geography. Conditional probability of CUD among cannabis-using patients was 49%, with the highest conditional probabilities among demographic subgroups of young adults and those with non-specified sexual orientation (67-69%) and the lowest conditional probability among females and those 50+ years of age (42% apiece). Similarly, youthful age and male gender emerged as robust multivariate model predictors of CUD. In the context of increasingly lenient policies for use of cannabis as a therapeutic agent for chronic conditions like HIV/AIDS, current study findings offer needed direction in terms of specifying targeted patient groups in HIV care on whom resources for enhanced surveillance and intervention efforts will be most impactful.

[Overweight and obesity in schoolchildren from Brandsen and its relationship with socio-environmental characteristics of residence].

PubMed

Cesani, María F; Luis, María A; Torres, María F; Castro, Luis E; Quintero, Fabián A; Luna, María E; Bergel, María L; Oyhenart, Evelia E

2010-08-01

Environmental factors play an important role in the etiology of overweight (S) and obesity (O), constituting the "obesogenic environment". The objectives of the present study are: a) to estimate overweight and obesity prevalences in 3 to 14 years-old schoolchildren from Brandsen (Provincia de Buenos Aires), and b) to analyze the probability of occurrence of overweight and obesity in relation to the socioenvironmental conditions of resident. Weight and height were measured in 989 boys and girls aged 3 to 14 years. S and O were estimated following the criteria suggested by the International Obesity Task Force. The prevalences of S and O were compared between genders and ages. The socio- environmental information was gathered according to surveys and processed by Categorical Principal Components Analysis (catPCA). Generalized Linear Model (link logit) against the variables S and O was employed. S was found in 15,8% of schoolchildren and O in 7,2%. None significative statistics differences between both genders and ages, were found. The first axis of the catPCA discriminated the cases that presented better socio-environmental conditions with positive values and those with more unfavorable conditions with negatives values. Higher probability of obese children was associated with better socio-environmental conditions (higher educational level of parents, higher income and better access to public services), and higher probability of overweight children was associated with less favored environments. The schoolchildren population of Brandsen presents high overweight and obesity prevalences. The chance of presenting overweight is higher in children from households with adverse socio-environmental conditions. On the contrary, obese children are to be more found in households which have more favorable socio-environmental conditions.

Does Retiree Health Insurance Encourage Early Retirement?*

PubMed Central

Nyce, Steven; Schieber, Sylvester J.; Shoven, John B.; Slavov, Sita Nataraj; Wise, David A.

2013-01-01

The strong link between health insurance and employment in the United States may cause workers to delay retirement until they become eligible for Medicare at age 65. However, some employers extend health insurance benefits to their retirees, and individuals who are eligible for such retiree health benefits need not wait until age 65 to retire with group health coverage. We investigate the impact of retiree health insurance on early retirement using employee-level data from 54 diverse firms that are clients of Towers Watson, a leading benefits consulting firm. We find that retiree health coverage has its strongest effects at ages 62 through 64. Coverage that includes an employer contribution is associated with a 6.3 percentage point (36.2 percent) increase in the probability of turnover at age 62, a 7.7 percentage point (48.8 percent) increase in the probability of turnover at age 63, and a 5.5 percentage point (38.0 percent) increase in the probability of turnover at age 64. Conditional on working at age 57, such coverage reduces the expected retirement age by almost three months and reduces the total number of person-years worked between ages 58 and 64 by 5.6 percent. PMID:24039312

Experiencing El Niño conditions during early life reduces recruiting probabilities but not adult survival.

PubMed

Ancona, Sergio; Zúñiga-Vega, J Jaime; Rodríguez, Cristina; Drummond, Hugh

2018-01-01

In wild long-lived animals, analysis of impacts of stressful natal conditions on adult performance has rarely embraced the entire age span, and the possibility that costs are expressed late in life has seldom been examined. Using 26 years of data from 8541 fledglings and 1310 adults of the blue-footed booby ( Sula nebouxii ), a marine bird that can live up to 23 years, we tested whether experiencing the warm waters and food scarcity associated with El Niño in the natal year reduces recruitment or survival over the adult lifetime. Warm water in the natal year reduced the probability of recruiting; each additional degree (°C) of water temperature meant a reduction of roughly 50% in fledglings' probability of returning to the natal colony as breeders. Warm water in the current year impacted adult survival, with greater effect at the oldest ages than during early adulthood. However, warm water in the natal year did not affect survival at any age over the adult lifespan. A previous study showed that early recruitment and widely spaced breeding allow boobies that experience warm waters in the natal year to achieve normal fledgling production over the first 10 years; our results now show that this reproductive effort incurs no survival penalty, not even late in life. This pattern is additional evidence of buffering against stressful natal conditions via life-history adjustments.

Experiencing El Niño conditions during early life reduces recruiting probabilities but not adult survival

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Cristina; Drummond, Hugh

2018-01-01

In wild long-lived animals, analysis of impacts of stressful natal conditions on adult performance has rarely embraced the entire age span, and the possibility that costs are expressed late in life has seldom been examined. Using 26 years of data from 8541 fledglings and 1310 adults of the blue-footed booby (Sula nebouxii), a marine bird that can live up to 23 years, we tested whether experiencing the warm waters and food scarcity associated with El Niño in the natal year reduces recruitment or survival over the adult lifetime. Warm water in the natal year reduced the probability of recruiting; each additional degree (°C) of water temperature meant a reduction of roughly 50% in fledglings' probability of returning to the natal colony as breeders. Warm water in the current year impacted adult survival, with greater effect at the oldest ages than during early adulthood. However, warm water in the natal year did not affect survival at any age over the adult lifespan. A previous study showed that early recruitment and widely spaced breeding allow boobies that experience warm waters in the natal year to achieve normal fledgling production over the first 10 years; our results now show that this reproductive effort incurs no survival penalty, not even late in life. This pattern is additional evidence of buffering against stressful natal conditions via life-history adjustments. PMID:29410788

Identifying sources of heterogeneity in capture probabilities: An example using the Great Tit Parus major

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senar, J.C.; Conroy, M.J.; Carrascal, L.M.; Domenech, J.; Mozetich, I.; Uribe, F.

1999-01-01

Heterogeneous capture probabilities are a common problem in many capture-recapture studies. Several methods of detecting the presence of such heterogeneity are currently available, and stratification of data has been suggested as the standard method to avoid its effects. However, few studies have tried to identify sources of heterogeneity, or whether there are interactions among sources. The aim of this paper is to suggest an analytical procedure to identify sources of capture heterogeneity. We use data on the sex and age of Great Tits captured in baited funnel traps, at two localities differing in average temperature. We additionally use 'recapture' data obtained by videotaping at feeder (with no associated trap), where the tits ringed with different colours were recorded. This allowed us to test whether individuals in different classes (age, sex and condition) are not trapped because of trap shyness or because o a reduced use of the bait. We used logistic regression analysis of the capture probabilities to test for the effects of age, sex, condition, location and 'recapture method. The results showed a higher recapture probability in the colder locality. Yearling birds (either males or females) had the highest recapture prob abilities, followed by adult males, while adult females had the lowest recapture probabilities. There was no effect of the method of 'recapture' (trap or video tape), which suggests that adult females are less often captured in traps no because of trap-shyness but because of less dependence on supplementary food. The potential use of this methodological approach in other studies is discussed.

[A modification of the Gompertz plot resulting from the age index by Ries and an approximation of the survivorship curve (author's transl)].

PubMed

Lohmann, W

1978-01-01

The shape of the survivorship curve can easily be interpreted on condition that the probability of death is proportional to an exponentially rising function of ageing. According to the formation of a sum for determining of the age index by Ries it was investigated to what extent the survivorship curve may be approximated by a sum of exponentials. It follows that the difference between the pure exponential function and a sum of exponentials by using possible values is lying within the random variation. Because the probability of death for different diseases is variable, the new statement is a better one.

Paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biasi, G.P.; Weldon, R.J.; Fumal, T.E.; Seitz, G.G.

2002-01-01

We introduce a quantitative approach to paleoearthquake dating and apply it to paleoseismic data from the Wrightwood and Pallett Creek sites on the southern San Andreas fault. We illustrate how stratigraphic ordering, sedimentological, and historical data can be used quantitatively in the process of estimating earthquake ages. Calibrated radiocarbon age distributions are used directly from layer dating through recurrence intervals and recurrence probability estimation. The method does not eliminate subjective judgements in event dating, but it does provide a means of systematically and objectively approaching the dating process. Date distributions for the most recent 14 events at Wrightwood are based on sample and contextual evidence in Fumal et al. (2002) and site context and slip history in Weldon et al. (2002). Pallett Creek event and dating descriptions are from published sources. For the five most recent events at Wrightwood, our results are consistent with previously published estimates, with generally comparable or narrower uncertainties. For Pallett Creek, our earthquake date estimates generally overlap with previous results but typically have broader uncertainties. Some event date estimates are very sensitive to details of data interpretation. The historical earthquake in 1857 ruptured the ground at both sites but is not constrained by radiocarbon data. Radiocarbon ages, peat accumulation rates, and historical constraints at Pallett Creek for event X yield a date estimate in the earliest 1800s and preclude a date in the late 1600s. This event is almost certainly the historical 1812 earthquake, as previously concluded by Sieh et al. (1989). This earthquake also produced ground deformation at Wrightwood. All events at Pallett Creek, except for event T, about A.D. 1360, and possibly event I, about A.D. 960, have corresponding events at Wrightwood with some overlap in age ranges. Event T falls during a period of low sedimentation at Wrightwood when conditions were not favorable for recording earthquake evidence. Previously proposed correlations of Pallett Creek X with Wrightwood W3 in the 1690s and Pallett Creek event V with W5 around 1480 (Fumal et al., 1993) appear unlikely after our dating reevaluation. Apparent internal inconsistencies among event, layer, and dating relationships around events R and V identify them as candidates for further investigation at the site. Conditional probabilities of earthquake recurrence were estimated using Poisson, lognormal, and empirical models. The presence of 12 or 13 events at Wrightwood during the same interval that 10 events are reported at Pallett Creek is reflected in mean recurrence intervals of 105 and 135 years, respectively. Average Poisson model 30-year conditional probabilities are about 20% at Pallett Creek and 25% at Wrightwood. The lognormal model conditional probabilities are somewhat higher, about 25% for Pallett Creek and 34% for Wrightwood. Lognormal variance ??ln estimates of 0.76 and 0.70, respectively, imply only weak time predictability. Conditional probabilities of 29% and 46%, respectively, were estimated for an empirical distribution derived from the data alone. Conditional probability uncertainties are dominated by the brevity of the event series; dating uncertainty contributes only secondarily. Wrightwood and Pallett Creek event chronologies both suggest variations in recurrence interval with time, hinting that some form of recurrence rate modulation may be at work, but formal testing shows that neither series is more ordered than might be produced by a Poisson process.

Age of Parental Concern, Diagnosis, and Service Initiation among Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zablotsky, Benjamin; Colpe, Lisa J.; Pringle, Beverly A.; Kogan, Michael D.; Rice, Catherine; Blumberg, Stephen J.

2017-01-01

Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) require substantial support to address the core symptoms of ASD and co-occurring behavioral/developmental conditions. This study explores the early diagnostic experiences of school-aged children with ASD using survey data from a large probability-based national sample. Multivariate linear regressions…

Variation in probability of first reproduction of Weddell seals.

PubMed

Hadley, Gillian L; Rotella, Jay J; Garrott, Robert A; Nichols, James D

2006-09-01

1. For many species, when to begin reproduction is an important life-history decision that varies by individual and can have substantial implications for lifetime reproductive success and fitness. 2. We estimated age-specific probabilities of first-time breeding and modelled variation in these rates to determine age at first reproduction and understand why it varies in a population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multistate mark-recapture modelling methods and encounter histories of 4965 known-age female seals to test predictions about age-related variation in probability of first reproduction and the effects of annual variation, cohort and population density. 3. Mean age at first reproduction in this southerly located study population (7.62 years of age, SD=1.71) was greater than age at first reproduction for a Weddell seal population at a more northerly and typical latitude for breeding Weddell seals (mean=4-5 years of age). This difference suggests that age at first reproduction may be influenced by whether a population inhabits the core or periphery of its range. 4. Age at first reproduction varied from 4 to 14 years, but there was no age by which all seals recruited to the breeding population, suggesting that individual heterogeneity exists among females in this population. 5. In the best model, the probability of breeding for the first time varied by age and year, and the amount of annual variation varied with age (average variance ratio for age-specific rates=4.3%). 6. Our results affirmed the predictions of life-history theory that age at first reproduction in long-lived mammals will be sensitive to environmental variation. In terms of life-history evolution, this variability suggests that Weddell seals display flexibility in age at first reproduction in order to maximize reproductive output under varying environmental conditions. Future analyses will attempt to test predictions regarding relationships between environmental covariates and annual variation in age at first reproduction and evaluate the relationship between age at first reproduction and lifetime reproductive success.

Detection of the toughest: Pedestrian injury risk as a smooth function of age.

PubMed

Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko

2017-07-04

Though it is common to refer to age-specific groups (e.g., children, adults, elderly), smooth trends conditional on age are mainly ignored in the literature. The present study examines the pedestrian injury risk in full-frontal pedestrian-to-passenger car accidents and incorporates age-in addition to collision speed and injury severity-as a plug-in parameter. Recent work introduced a model for pedestrian injury risk functions using explicit formulae with easily interpretable model parameters. This model is expanded by pedestrian age as another model parameter. Using the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) to obtain age-specific risk proportions, the model parameters are fitted to the raw data and then smoothed by broken-line regression. The approach supplies explicit probabilities for pedestrian injury risk conditional on pedestrian age, collision speed, and injury severity under investigation. All results yield consistency to each other in the sense that risks for more severe injuries are less probable than those for less severe injuries. As a side product, the approach indicates specific ages at which the risk behavior fundamentally changes. These threshold values can be interpreted as the most robust ages for pedestrians. The obtained age-wise risk functions can be aggregated and adapted to any population. The presented approach is formulated in such general terms that in can be directly used for other data sets or additional parameters; for example, the pedestrian's sex. Thus far, no other study using age as a plug-in parameter can be found.

Reasoning about conjunctive probabilistic concepts in childhood.

PubMed

Fisk, John E; Slattery, Rachel

2005-09-01

While adults are known to exhibit biases when making conjunctive probability judgments, little is known about childhood competencies in this area. Participants (aged between four and five years, eight and ten years, and a group of young adults) attempted to select the more likely of two events, a single event, and a conjunctive event containing, as one of its components, the single event. The problems were such that the objective probabilities of the component events were potentially available. Children in both age groups were generally successful when the single event was likely. However, when it was unlikely, a majority of children rejected it, choosing the conjunctive event instead, thereby committing the conjunction fallacy. A substantial minority of adults also committed the fallacy under equivalent conditions. It is concluded that under certain conditions children are capable of normative conjunctive judgments but that the mechanisms underpinning this capacity remain to be fully understood.

Lethal exposure: An integrated approach to pathogen transmission via environmental reservoirs.

PubMed

Turner, Wendy C; Kausrud, Kyrre L; Beyer, Wolfgang; Easterday, W Ryan; Barandongo, Zoë R; Blaschke, Elisabeth; Cloete, Claudine C; Lazak, Judith; Van Ert, Matthew N; Ganz, Holly H; Turnbull, Peter C B; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Getz, Wayne M

2016-06-06

To mitigate the effects of zoonotic diseases on human and animal populations, it is critical to understand what factors alter transmission dynamics. Here we assess the risk of exposure to lethal concentrations of the anthrax bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, for grazing animals in a natural system over time through different transmission mechanisms. We follow pathogen concentrations at anthrax carcass sites and waterholes for five years and estimate infection risk as a function of grass, soil or water intake, age of carcass sites, and the exposure required for a lethal infection. Grazing, not drinking, seems the dominant transmission route, and transmission is more probable from grazing at carcass sites 1-2 years of age. Unlike most studies of virulent pathogens that are conducted under controlled conditions for extrapolation to real situations, we evaluate exposure risk under field conditions to estimate the probability of a lethal dose, showing that not all reservoirs with detectable pathogens are significant transmission pathways.

A Simple Method for Estimating Informative Node Age Priors for the Fossil Calibration of Molecular Divergence Time Analyses

PubMed Central

Nowak, Michael D.; Smith, Andrew B.; Simpson, Carl; Zwickl, Derrick J.

2013-01-01

Molecular divergence time analyses often rely on the age of fossil lineages to calibrate node age estimates. Most divergence time analyses are now performed in a Bayesian framework, where fossil calibrations are incorporated as parametric prior probabilities on node ages. It is widely accepted that an ideal parameterization of such node age prior probabilities should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the fossil record of the clade of interest, but there is currently no generally applicable approach for calculating such informative priors. We provide here a simple and easily implemented method that employs fossil data to estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade, which can be used to fit an informative parametric prior probability distribution on a node age. Specifically, our method uses the extant diversity and the stratigraphic distribution of fossil lineages confidently assigned to a clade to fit a branching model of lineage diversification. Conditioning this on a simple model of fossil preservation, we estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade. The likelihood surface of missing history can then be translated into a parametric prior probability distribution on the age of the clade of interest. We show that the method performs well with simulated fossil distribution data, but that the likelihood surface of missing history can at times be too complex for the distribution-fitting algorithm employed by our software tool. An empirical example of the application of our method is performed to estimate echinoid node ages. A simulation-based sensitivity analysis using the echinoid data set shows that node age prior distributions estimated under poor preservation rates are significantly less informative than those estimated under high preservation rates. PMID:23755303

Effects of Hearing Loss on Dual-Task Performance in an Audiovisual Virtual Reality Simulation of Listening While Walking.

PubMed

Lau, Sin Tung; Pichora-Fuller, M Kathleen; Li, Karen Z H; Singh, Gurjit; Campos, Jennifer L

2016-07-01

Most activities of daily living require the dynamic integration of sights, sounds, and movements as people navigate complex environments. Nevertheless, little is known about the effects of hearing loss (HL) or hearing aid (HA) use on listening during multitasking challenges. The objective of the current study was to investigate the effect of age-related hearing loss (ARHL) on word recognition accuracy in a dual-task experiment. Virtual reality (VR) technologies in a specialized laboratory (Challenging Environment Assessment Laboratory) were used to produce a controlled and safe simulated environment for listening while walking. In a simulation of a downtown street intersection, participants completed two single-task conditions, listening-only (standing stationary) and walking-only (walking on a treadmill to cross the simulated intersection with no speech presented), and a dual-task condition (listening while walking). For the listening task, they were required to recognize words spoken by a target talker when there was a competing talker. For some blocks of trials, the target talker was always located at 0° azimuth (100% probability condition); for other blocks, the target talker was more likely (60% of trials) to be located at the center (0° azimuth) and less likely (40% of trials) to be located at the left (270° azimuth). The participants were eight older adults with bilateral HL (mean age = 73.3 yr, standard deviation [SD] = 8.4; three males) who wore their own HAs during testing and eight controls with normal hearing (NH) thresholds (mean age = 69.9 yr, SD = 5.4; two males). No participant had clinically significant visual, cognitive, or mobility impairments. Word recognition accuracy and kinematic parameters (head and trunk angles, step width and length, stride time, cadence) were analyzed using mixed factorial analysis of variances with group as a between-subjects factor. Task condition (single versus dual) and probability (100% versus 60%) were within-subject factors. In analyses of the 60% listening condition, spatial expectation (likely versus unlikely) was a within-subject factor. Differences between groups in age and baseline measures of hearing, mobility, and cognition were tested using t tests. The NH group had significantly better word recognition accuracy than the HL group. Both groups performed better when the probability was higher and the target location more likely. For word recognition, dual-task costs for the HL group did not depend on condition, whereas the NH group demonstrated a surprising dual-task benefit in conditions with lower probability or spatial expectation. For the kinematic parameters, both groups demonstrated a more upright and less variable head position and more variable trunk position during dual-task conditions compared to the walking-only condition, suggesting that safe walking was prioritized. The HL group demonstrated more overall stride time variability than the NH group. This study provides new knowledge about the effects of ARHL, HA use, and aging on word recognition when individuals also perform a mobility-related task that is typically experienced in everyday life. This research may help inform the development of more effective function-based approaches to assessment and intervention for people who are hard-of-hearing. American Academy of Audiology.

Occupational Choice: A Conditional Logit Model with Special Reference to Wage Subsidies and Occupational Choice. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boskin, Michael J.

A model of occupational choice based on the theory of human capital is developed and estimated by conditional logit analysis. The empirical results estimated the probability of individuals with certain characteristics (such as race, sex, age, and education) entering each of 11 occupational groups. The results indicate that individuals tend to…

Prevalence and co-occurrence of addictive behaviors among former alternative high school youth: A longitudinal follow-up study.

PubMed

Sussman, Steve; Pokhrel, Pallav; Sun, Ping; Rohrbach, Louise A; Spruijt-Metz, Donna

2015-09-01

Recent work has studied addictions using a matrix measure, which taps multiple addictions through single responses for each type. This is the first longitudinal study using a matrix measure. We investigated the use of this approach among former alternative high school youth (average age = 19.8 years at baseline; longitudinal n = 538) at risk for addictions. Lifetime and last 30-day prevalence of one or more of 11 addictions reviewed in other work was the primary focus (i.e., cigarettes, alcohol, hard drugs, shopping, gambling, Internet, love, sex, eating, work, and exercise). These were examined at two time-points one year apart. Latent class and latent transition analyses (LCA and LTA) were conducted in Mplus. Prevalence rates were stable across the two time-points. As in the cross-sectional baseline analysis, the 2-class model (addiction class, non-addiction class) fit the data better at follow-up than models with more classes. Item-response or conditional probabilities for each addiction type did not differ between time-points. As a result, the LTA model utilized constrained the conditional probabilities to be equal across the two time-points. In the addiction class, larger conditional probabilities (i.e., 0.40-0.49) were found for love, sex, exercise, and work addictions; medium conditional probabilities (i.e., 0.17-0.27) were found for cigarette, alcohol, other drugs, eating, Internet and shopping addiction; and a small conditional probability (0.06) was found for gambling. Persons in an addiction class tend to remain in this addiction class over a one-year period.

An evaluation of agreement between pectoral spines and otoliths for estimating ages of catfishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olive, J.A.; Schramm, Harold; Gerard, Patrick D.; Irwin, E.

2011-01-01

Otoliths have been shown to provide more accurate ages than pectoral spine sections for several catfish populations; but sampling otoliths requires euthanizing the specimen, whereas spines can be sampled non-lethally. To evaluate whether, and under what conditions, spines provide the same or similar age estimates as otoliths, we examined data sets of individual fish aged from pectoral spines and otoliths for six blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus populations (n=420), 14 channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus populations (n=997), and 10 flathead catfish Pylodictus olivaris populations (n=947) from lotic and lentic waters throughout the central and eastern U.S. Logistic regression determined that agreement between ages estimated from otoliths and spines was consistently related to age, but inconsistently related to growth rate. When modeled at mean growth rate, we found at least 80% probability of no difference in spine- and otolith-assigned ages up to ages 4 and 5 for blue and channel catfish, respectively. For flathead catfish, an 80% probability of agreement between spine- and otolith-assigned ages did not occur at any age due to high incidence of differences in assigned ages even for age-1 fish. Logistic regression models predicted at least 80% probability that spine and otolith ages differed by ≤1 year up to ages 13, 16, and 9 for blue, channel, and flathead catfish, respectively. Age-bias assessment found mean spine-assigned age differed by less than 1 year from otolith-assigned age up to ages 19, 9, and 17 for blue catfish, channel catfish, and flathead catfish, respectively. These results can be used to help guide decisions about which structure is most appropriate for estimating catfish ages for particular populations and management objectives.

Compressive behavior of laminated neoprene bridge bearing pads under thermal aging condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, Xie; Zhang, Yannian; Shan, Chunhong

2017-10-01

The present study was conducted to obtain a better understanding of the variation rule of mechanical properties of laminated neoprene bridge bearing pads under thermal aging condition using compression tests. A total of 5 specimens were processed in a high-temperature chamber. After that, the specimens were tested subjected to axial load. The parameter mainly considered time of thermal aging processing for specimens. The results of compression tests show that the specimens after thermal aging processing are more probably brittle failure than the standard specimen. Moreover, the exposure of steel plate, cracks and other failure phenomena are more serious than the standard specimen. The compressive capacity, ultimate compressive strength, compressive elastic modulus of the laminated neoprene bridge bearing pads decreased dramatically with the increasing in the aging time of thermal aging processing. The attenuation trends of ultimate compressive strength, compressive elastic modulus of laminated neoprene bridge bearing pads under thermal aging condition accord with power function. The attenuation models are acquired by regressing data of experiment with the least square method. The attenuation models conform to reality well which shows that this model is applicable and has vast prospect in assessing the performance of laminated neoprene bridge bearing pads under thermal aging condition.

The effect of floods on anemia among reproductive age women in Afghanistan.

PubMed

Oskorouchi, Hamid Reza; Nie, Peng; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

2018-01-01

This study uses biomarker information from the 2013 National Nutrition Survey Afghanistan and satellite precipitation driven modeling results from the Global Flood Monitoring System to analyze how floods affect the probability of anemia in Afghan women of reproductive age (15-49). In addition to establishing a causal relation between the two by exploiting the quasi-random variation of floods in different districts and periods, the analysis demonstrates that floods have a significant positive effect on the probability of anemia through two possible transmission mechanisms. The first is a significant effect on inflammation, probably related to water borne diseases carried by unsafe drinking water, and the second is a significant negative effect on retinol concentrations. Because the effect of floods on anemia remains significant even after we control for anemia's most common causes, we argue that the condition may also be affected by elevated levels of psychological stress.

The effect of floods on anemia among reproductive age women in Afghanistan

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This study uses biomarker information from the 2013 National Nutrition Survey Afghanistan and satellite precipitation driven modeling results from the Global Flood Monitoring System to analyze how floods affect the probability of anemia in Afghan women of reproductive age (15–49). In addition to establishing a causal relation between the two by exploiting the quasi-random variation of floods in different districts and periods, the analysis demonstrates that floods have a significant positive effect on the probability of anemia through two possible transmission mechanisms. The first is a significant effect on inflammation, probably related to water borne diseases carried by unsafe drinking water, and the second is a significant negative effect on retinol concentrations. Because the effect of floods on anemia remains significant even after we control for anemia’s most common causes, we argue that the condition may also be affected by elevated levels of psychological stress. PMID:29425219

Parental Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Symptoms Are Related to Successful Aging in Offspring of Holocaust Survivors

PubMed Central

Shrira, Amit; Ayalon, Liat; Bensimon, Moshe; Bodner, Ehud; Rosenbloom, Tova; Yadid, Gal

2017-01-01

A fascinating, yet underexplored, question is whether traumatic events experienced by previous generations affect the aging process of subsequent generations. This question is especially relevant for offspring of Holocaust survivors (OHS), who begin to face the aging process. Some preliminary findings point to greater physical dysfunction among middle-aged OHS, yet the mechanisms behind this dysfunction need further clarification. Therefore, the current studies assess aging OHS using the broad-scoped conceptualization of successful aging, while examining whether offspring successful aging relates to parental post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and offspring’s secondary traumatization symptoms. In Study 1, 101 adult offspring (mean age = 62.31) completed measures of parental PTSD, secondary traumatization, as well as successful aging indices – objective (medical conditions, disability and somatic symptoms) and subjective (perceptions of one’s aging). Relative to comparisons and OHS who reported that none of their parents suffered from probable PTSD, OHS who reported that their parents suffered from probable PTSD had lower scores in objective and subjective measures of successful aging. Mediation analyses showed that higher level of secondary traumatization mediated the relationship between parental PTSD and less successful aging in the offspring. Study 2 included 154 dyads of parents (mean age = 81.86) and their adult offspring (mean age = 54.48). Parents reported PTSD symptoms and offspring reported secondary traumatization and completed measures of objective successful aging. Relative to comparisons, OHS whose parent had probable PTSD have aged less successfully. Once again, offspring secondary traumatization mediated the effect. The findings suggest that parental post-traumatic reactions assessed both by offspring (Study 1) and by parents themselves (Study 2) take part in shaping the aging of the subsequent generation via reactions of secondary traumatization in the offspring. The studies also provide initial evidence that these processes can transpire even when offspring do not have probable PTSD or when controlling offspring anxiety symptoms. Our findings allude to additional behavioral and epigenetic processes that are potentially involved in the effect of parental PTSD on offspring aging, and further imply the need to develop interdisciplinary interventions aiming at promoting successful aging among offspring of traumatized parents. PMID:28706503

Variation in probability of first reproduction of Weddell seals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hadley, G.L.; Rotella, J.J.; Garrott, R.A.; Nichols, J.D.

2006-01-01

Summary 1. For many species, when to begin reproduction is an important life-history decision that varies by individual and can have substantial implications for lifetime reproductive success and fitness. 2. We estimated age-specific probabilities of first-time breeding and modelled variation in these rates to determine age at first reproduction and understand why it varies in a population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multistate mark?recapture modelling methods and encounter histories of 4965 known-age female seals to test predictions about age-related variation in probability of first reproduction and the effects of annual variation, cohort and population density. 3. Mean age at first reproduction in this southerly located study population (7.62 years of age, SD =1.71) was greater than age at first reproduction for a Weddell seal population at a more northerly and typical latitude for breeding Weddell seals (mean =4?5 years of age). This difference suggests that age at first reproduction may be influenced by whether a population inhabits the core or periphery of its range. 4. Age at first reproduction varied from 4 to 14 years, but there was no age by which all seals recruited to the breeding population, suggesting that individual heterogeneity exists among females in this population. 5. In the best model, the probability of breeding for the first time varied by age and year, and the amount of annual variation varied with age (average variance ratio for age-specific rates =4.3%). 6. Our results affirmed the predictions of life-history theory that age at first reproduction in long-lived mammals will be sensitive to environmental variation. In terms of life history evolution, this variability suggests that Weddell seals display flexibility in age at first reproduction in order to maximize reproductive output under varying environmental conditions. Future analyses will attempt to test predictions regarding relationships between environmental covariates and annual variation in age at first reproduction and evaluate the relationship between age at first reproduction and lifetime reproductive success.

Effects of Word Frequency and Transitional Probability on Word Reading Durations of Younger and Older Speakers.

PubMed

Moers, Cornelia; Meyer, Antje; Janse, Esther

2017-06-01

High-frequency units are usually processed faster than low-frequency units in language comprehension and language production. Frequency effects have been shown for words as well as word combinations. Word co-occurrence effects can be operationalized in terms of transitional probability (TP). TPs reflect how probable a word is, conditioned by its right or left neighbouring word. This corpus study investigates whether three different age groups-younger children (8-12 years), adolescents (12-18 years) and older (62-95 years) Dutch speakers-show frequency and TP context effects on spoken word durations in reading aloud, and whether age groups differ in the size of these effects. Results show consistent effects of TP on word durations for all age groups. Thus, TP seems to influence the processing of words in context, beyond the well-established effect of word frequency, across the entire age range. However, the study also indicates that age groups differ in the size of TP effects, with older adults having smaller TP effects than adolescent readers. Our results show that probabilistic reduction effects in reading aloud may at least partly stem from contextual facilitation that leads to faster reading times in skilled readers, as well as in young language learners.

Age-dependent associations between androgenetic alopecia and prostate cancer risk.

PubMed

Muller, David C; Giles, Graham G; Sinclair, Rod; Hopper, John L; English, Dallas R; Severi, Gianluca

2013-02-01

Both prostate cancer and androgenetic alopecia are strongly age-related conditions that are considered to be androgen dependent, but studies of the relationship between them have yielded inconsistent results. We aimed to assess whether androgenetic alopecia at ages 20 and 40 years are associated with risk of prostate cancer. At a follow-up of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, men were asked to assess their hair pattern at ages 20 and 40 years relative to eight categories in showcards. Cases were men notified to the Victorian Cancer Registry with prostate cancer diagnosed between cohort enrollment (1990-1994) and follow-up attendance (2003-2009). Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate age-varying HRs and predicted cumulative probabilities of prostate cancer by androgenetic alopecia categories. Of 9,448 men that attended follow-up and provided data on androgenetic alopecia, we identified 476 prostate cancer cases during a median follow-up of 11 years four months. Cumulative probability of prostate cancer was greater at all ages up to 76 years, for men with vertex versus no androgenetic alopecia at age of 40 years. At age of 76 years, the estimated probabilities converged to 0.15. Vertex androgenetic alopecia at 40 years was also associated with younger age of diagnosis for prostate cancer cases. Vertex androgenetic alopecia at age of 40 years might be a marker of increased risk of early-onset prostate cancer. If confirmed, these results suggest that the apparently conflicting findings of previous studies might be explained by failure to adequately model the age-varying nature of the association between androgenetic alopecia and prostate cancer.

Test for age-specificity in survival of the common tern

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nisbet, I.C.T.; Cam, E.

2002-01-01

Much effort in life-history theory has been addressed to the dependence of life-history traits on age, especially the phenomenon of senescence and its evolution. Although senescent declines in survival are well documented in humans and in domestic and laboratory animals, evidence for their occurrence and importance in wild animal species remains limited and equivocal. Several recent papers have suggested that methodological issues may contribute to this problem, and have encouraged investigators to improve sampling designs and to analyse their data using recently developed approaches to modelling of capture-mark-recapture data. Here we report on a three-year, two-site, mark-recapture study of known-aged common terns (Sterna hirundo) in the north-eastern USA. The study was nested within a long-term ecological study in which large numbers of chicks had been banded in each year for > 25 years. We used a range of models to test the hypothesis of an influence of age on survival probability. We also tested for a possible influence of sex on survival. The cross-sectional design of the study (one year's parameter estimates) avoided the possible confounding of effects of age and time. The study was conducted at a time when one of the study sites was being colonized and numbers were increasing rapidly. We detected two-way movements between the sites and estimated movement probabilities in the year for which they could be modelled. We also obtained limited data on emigration from our study area to more distant sites. We found no evidence that survival depended on either sex or age, except that survival was lower among the youngest birds (ages 2-3 years). Despite the large number of birds included in the study (1599 known-aged birds, 2367 total), confidence limits on estimates of survival probability were wide, especially for the oldest age-classes, so that a slight decline in survival late in life could not have been detected. In addition, the cross-sectional design of this study meant that a decline in survival probability within individuals (actuarial senescence) could have been masked by heterogeneity in survival probability among individuals (mortality selection). This emphasizes the need for the development of modelling tools permitting separation of these two phenomena, valid under field conditions in which the recapture probabilities are less than one.

Two models for microsimulation of family life cycle and family structure.

PubMed

Bertino, S; Pinnelli, A; Vichi, M

1988-01-01

2 models are proposed for the microsimulation of the family and analysis of family structure and life cycle. These models were devised primarily for teaching purposes. The families are composed of 3 generations (parents, grandparents, children). Cohabitation is not considered. The 1st model is governed by a transition mechanism based on the rules of a Markov multidimensional, nonhonogeneous chain. The 2nd model is based on stochastic point processes. Input data comprise annual mortality probability according to 1) sex, 2) age, 3) civil status, 4) annual probability of 1st marriage, 5) age combinations between the spouses, and 6) the probability of having 1, 2, or 3 children at 6 months intervals from the previous event (marriage or birth of nth child). The applications of the 1st model are presented using 2 mortality and fertility hypotheses (high and low) and a nuptiality hypothesis (West European nature). The various features of family composition are analyzed according to the duration of a couple's marriage and the age of the individual, as well as the characteristic features of the individual and family life cycle given these 2 demographic conditions.

Using age-specific mortality of HIV infected persons to predict anti-retroviral treatment need: a comparative analysis of data from five African population-based cohort studies.

PubMed

Zaba, Basia; Kasamba, Ivan; Floyd, Sian; Isingo, Raphael; Herbst, Kobus; Bärnighausen, Till; Gregson, Simon; Nyamukapa, Constance; Kayuni, Ndoliwe; Todd, Jim; Marston, Milly; Wringe, Alison

2012-08-01

To present a simple method for estimating population-level anti-retroviral therapy (ART) need that does not rely on knowledge of past HIV incidence. A new approach to estimating ART need is developed based on calculating age-specific proportions of HIV-infected adults expected to die within a fixed number of years in the absence of treatment. Mortality data for HIV-infected adults in the pre-treatment era from five African HIV cohort studies were combined to construct a life table, starting at age 15, smoothed with a Weibull model. Assuming that ART should be made available to anyone expected to die within 3 years, conditional 3-year survival probabilities were computed to represent proportions needing ART. The build-up of ART need in a successful programme continuously recruiting infected adults into treatment as they age to within 3 years of expected death was represented by annually extending the conditional survival range. The Weibull model: survival probability in the infected state from age 15 = exp(-0.0073 × (age - 15)(1.69)) fitted the pooled age-specific mortality data very closely. Initial treatment need for infected persons increased rapidly with age, from 15% at age 20-24 to 32% at age 40-44 and 42% at age 60-64. Overall need in the treatment of naïve population was 24%, doubling within 5 years in a programme continually recruiting patients entering the high-risk period for dying. A reasonable projection of treatment need in an ART naive population can be made based on the age and gender profile of HIV-infected people. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

[Infant and child mortality in Latin America].

PubMed

Behm, H; Primante, D A

1978-04-01

High mortality rates persist in Latin America, and data collection is made very difficult because of the lack of reliable statistics. A study was initiated in 1976 to measure the probability of mortality from birth to 2 years of age in 12 Latin American countries. The Brass method was used and applied to population censuses. Probability of mortality is extremely heterogeneous and regularly very high, varying between a maximum of 202/1000 in Bolivia, to a minimum of 112/1000 in Uruguay. In comparison, the same probability is 21/1000 in the U.S., and 11/1000 in sweden. Mortality in rural areas is much higher than in urban ones, and varies according to the degree of education of the mother, children being born to mothers who had 10 years of formal education having the lowest risk of death. Children born to the indigenous population, largely illiterate and living in the poorest of conditions, have the highest probability of death, a probability reaching 67% of all deaths under 2 years. National health services in Latin America, although vastly improved and improving, still do not meet the needs of the population, especially rural, and structural and historical conditions hamper a wider application of existing medical knowledge.

Assessing the Relationship Between Chronic Health Conditions and Productivity Loss Trajectories

PubMed Central

Pranksy, Glenn

2014-01-01

Objective: To examine the relationship between health conditions and the risk for membership in longitudinal trajectories of productivity loss. Methods: Trajectories of productivity loss from the ages of 25 to 44 years, previously identified in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), were combined with information on health conditions from the age 40 years health module in the NLSY79. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the relative risk of being in the low-risk, early-onset increasing risk, late-onset increasing risk, or high-risk trajectories compared with the no-risk trajectory for having various health conditions. Results: The trajectories with the greatest probability of productivity loss longitudinally had a greater prevalence of the individual health conditions and a greater total number of health conditions experienced. Conclusions: Health conditions are associated with specific longitudinal patterns of experiencing productivity loss. PMID:25479294

Lethal exposure: An integrated approach to pathogen transmission via environmental reservoirs

PubMed Central

Turner, Wendy C.; Kausrud, Kyrre L.; Beyer, Wolfgang; Easterday, W. Ryan; Barandongo, Zoë R.; Blaschke, Elisabeth; Cloete, Claudine C.; Lazak, Judith; Van Ert, Matthew N.; Ganz, Holly H.; Turnbull, Peter C. B.; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Getz, Wayne M.

2016-01-01

To mitigate the effects of zoonotic diseases on human and animal populations, it is critical to understand what factors alter transmission dynamics. Here we assess the risk of exposure to lethal concentrations of the anthrax bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, for grazing animals in a natural system over time through different transmission mechanisms. We follow pathogen concentrations at anthrax carcass sites and waterholes for five years and estimate infection risk as a function of grass, soil or water intake, age of carcass sites, and the exposure required for a lethal infection. Grazing, not drinking, seems the dominant transmission route, and transmission is more probable from grazing at carcass sites 1–2 years of age. Unlike most studies of virulent pathogens that are conducted under controlled conditions for extrapolation to real situations, we evaluate exposure risk under field conditions to estimate the probability of a lethal dose, showing that not all reservoirs with detectable pathogens are significant transmission pathways. PMID:27265371

Prevalence and co-occurrence of addictive behaviors among former alternative high school youth: A longitudinal follow-up study

PubMed Central

Sussman, Steve; Pokhrel, Pallav; Sun, Ping; Rohrbach, Louise A.; Spruijt-Metz, Donna

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Recent work has studied addictions using a matrix measure, which taps multiple addictions through single responses for each type. This is the first longitudinal study using a matrix measure. Methods We investigated the use of this approach among former alternative high school youth (average age = 19.8 years at baseline; longitudinal n = 538) at risk for addictions. Lifetime and last 30-day prevalence of one or more of 11 addictions reviewed in other work was the primary focus (i.e., cigarettes, alcohol, hard drugs, shopping, gambling, Internet, love, sex, eating, work, and exercise). These were examined at two time-points one year apart. Latent class and latent transition analyses (LCA and LTA) were conducted in Mplus. Results Prevalence rates were stable across the two time-points. As in the cross-sectional baseline analysis, the 2-class model (addiction class, non-addiction class) fit the data better at follow-up than models with more classes. Item-response or conditional probabilities for each addiction type did not differ between time-points. As a result, the LTA model utilized constrained the conditional probabilities to be equal across the two time-points. In the addiction class, larger conditional probabilities (i.e., 0.40−0.49) were found for love, sex, exercise, and work addictions; medium conditional probabilities (i.e., 0.17−0.27) were found for cigarette, alcohol, other drugs, eating, Internet and shopping addiction; and a small conditional probability (0.06) was found for gambling. Discussion and Conclusions Persons in an addiction class tend to remain in this addiction class over a one-year period. PMID:26551909

Conditional survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase in the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

PubMed

Sasaki, Koji; Kantarjian, Hagop M; Jain, Preetesh; Jabbour, Elias J; Ravandi, Farhad; Konopleva, Marina; Borthakur, Gautam; Takahashi, Koichi; Pemmaraju, Naveen; Daver, Naval; Pierce, Sherry A; O'Brien, Susan M; Cortes, Jorge E

2016-01-15

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) significantly improve survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase (CML-CP). Conditional probability provides survival information in patients who have already survived for a specific period of time after treatment. Cumulative response and survival data from 6 consecutive frontline TKI clinical trials were analyzed. Conditional probability was calculated for failure-free survival (FFS), transformation-free survival (TFS), event-free survival (EFS), and overall survival (OS) according to depth of response within 1 year of the initiation of TKIs, including complete cytogenetic response, major molecular response, and molecular response with a 4-log or 4.5-log reduction. A total of 483 patients with a median follow-up of 99.4 months from the initiation of treatment with TKIs were analyzed. Conditional probabilities of FFS, TFS, EFS, and OS for 1 additional year for patients alive after 12 months of therapy ranged from 92.0% to 99.1%, 98.5% to 100%, 96.2% to 99.6%, and 96.8% to 99.7%, respectively. Conditional FFS for 1 additional year did not improve with a deeper response each year. Conditional probabilities of TFS, EFS, and OS for 1 additional year were maintained at >95% during the period. In the era of TKIs, patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase who survived for a certain number of years maintained excellent clinical outcomes in each age group. Cancer 2016;122:238-248. © 2015 American Cancer Society. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Stage line diagram: an age-conditional reference diagram for tracking development.

PubMed

van Buuren, Stef; Ooms, Jeroen C L

2009-05-15

This paper presents a method for calculating stage line diagrams, a novel type of reference diagram useful for tracking developmental processes over time. Potential fields of applications include: dentistry (tooth eruption), oncology (tumor grading, cancer staging), virology (HIV infection and disease staging), psychology (stages of cognitive development), human development (pubertal stages) and chronic diseases (stages of dementia). Transition probabilities between successive stages are modeled as smoothly varying functions of age. Age-conditional references are calculated from the modeled probabilities by the mid-P value. It is possible to eliminate the influence of age by calculating standard deviation scores (SDS). The method is applied to the empirical data to produce reference charts on secondary sexual maturation. The mean of the empirical SDS in the reference population is close to zero, whereas the variance depends on age. The stage line diagram provides quick insight into both status (in SDS) and tempo (in SDS/year) of development of an individual child. Other measures (e.g. height SDS, body mass index SDS) from the same child can be added to the chart. Diagrams for sexual maturation are available as a web application at http://vps.stefvanbuuren.nl/puberty. The stage line diagram expresses status and tempo of discrete changes on a continuous scale. Wider application of these measures scores opens up new analytic possibilities. (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The efficacy of fuel treatment in mitigating property loss during wildfires: Insights from analysis of the severity of the catastrophic fires in 2009 in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Price, Owen F; Bradstock, Ross A

2012-12-30

Treatment of fuel (e.g. prescribed fire, logging) in fire-prone ecosystems is done to reduce risks to people and their property but effects require quantification, particularly under severe weather conditions when the destructive potential of fires on human infrastructure is maximised. We analysed the relative effects of fuel age (i.e. indicative of the effectiveness of prescribed fire) and logging on remotely sensed (SPOT imagery) severity of fires which occurred in eucalypt forests in Victoria, Australia in 2009. These fires burned under the most severe weather conditions recorded in Australia and caused large losses of life and property. Statistical models of the probability of contrasting extremes of severity (crown fire versus fire confined to the understorey) were developed based on effects of fuel age, logging, weather, topography and forest type. Weather was the primary influence on severity, though it was reduced at low fuel ages in Moderate but not Catastrophic, Very High or Low fire-weather conditions. Probability of crown fires was higher in recently logged areas than in areas logged decades before, indicating likely ineffectiveness as a fuel treatment. The results suggest that recently burnt areas (up to 5-10 years) may reduce the intensity of the fire but not sufficiently to increase the chance of effective suppression under severe weather conditions. Since house loss was most likely under these conditions (67%), effects of prescribed burning across landscapes on house loss are likely to be small when weather conditions are severe. Fuel treatments need to be located close to houses in order to effectively mitigate risk of loss. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age, Loss Minimization, and the Role of Probability for Decision-Making.

PubMed

Best, Ryan; Freund, Alexandra M

2018-04-05

Older adults are stereotypically considered to be risk averse compared to younger age groups, although meta-analyses on age and the influence of gain/loss framing on risky choices have not found empirical evidence for age differences in risk-taking. The current study extends the investigation of age differences in risk preference by including analyses on the effect of the probability of a risky option on choices in gain versus loss situations. Participants (n = 130 adults aged 19-80 years) chose between a certain option and a risky option of varying probability in gain- and loss-framed gambles with actual monetary outcomes. Only younger adults displayed an overall framing effect. Younger and older adults responded differently to probability fluctuations depending on the framing condition. Older adults were more likely to choose the risky option as the likelihood of avoiding a larger loss increased and as the likelihood of a larger gain decreased. Younger adults responded with the opposite pattern: they were more likely to choose the risky option as the likelihood of a larger gain increased and as the likelihood of avoiding a (slightly) larger loss decreased. Results suggest that older adults are more willing to select a risky option when it increases the likelihood that larger losses be avoided, whereas younger adults are more willing to select a risky option when it allows for slightly larger gains. This finding supports expectations based on theoretical accounts of goal orientation shifting away from securing gains in younger adulthood towards maintenance and avoiding losses in older adulthood. Findings are also discussed in respect to the affective enhancement perspective and socioemotional selectivity theory. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Chronology of Postglacial Eruptive Activity and Calculation of Eruption Probabilities for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.

2007-01-01

Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.

Epidemiology and social costs of hip fracture.

PubMed

Veronese, Nicola; Maggi, Stefania

2018-04-20

Hip fracture is an important and debilitating condition in older people, particularly in women. The epidemiological data varies between countries, but it is globally estimated that hip fractures will affect around 18% of women and 6% of men. Although the age-standardised incidence is gradually falling in many countries, this is far outweighed by the ageing of the population. Thus, the global number of hip fractures is expected to increase from 1.26 million in 1990 to 4.5 million by the year 2050. The direct costs associated with this condition are enormous since it requires a long period of hospitalisation and subsequent rehabilitation. Furthermore, hip fracture is associated with the development of other negative consequences, such as disability, depression, and cardiovascular diseases, with additional costs for society. In this review, we show the most recent epidemiological data regarding hip fracture, indicating the well-known risk factors and conditions that seem relevant for determining this condition. A specific part is dedicated to the social costs due to hip fracture. Although the costs of hip fracture are probably comparable to other common diseases with a high hospitalisation rate (e.g. cardiovascular disease), the other social costs (due to onset of new co-morbidities, sarcopenia, poor quality of life, disability and mortality) are probably greater. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Conditional probability analysis between tinnitus and comorbidities in patients attending the National Rehabilitation Institute-LGII in the period 2012-2013].

PubMed

Gómez Toledo, Verónica; Gutiérrez Farfán, Ileana; Verduzco-Mendoza, Antonio; Arch-Tirado, Emilio

Tinnitus is defined as the conscious perception of a sensation of sound that occurs in the absence of an external stimulus. This audiological symptom affects 7% to 19% of the adult population. The aim of this study is to describe the associated comorbidities present in patients with tinnitus usingjoint and conditional probability analysis. Patients of both genders, diagnosed with unilateral or bilateral tinnitus, aged between 20 and 45 years, and had a full computerised medical record, were selected. Study groups were formed on the basis of the following clinical aspects: 1) audiological findings; 2) vestibular findings; 3) comorbidities such as, temporomandibular dysfunction, tubal dysfunction, otosclerosis and, 4) triggering factors of tinnitus noise exposure, respiratory tract infection, use of ototoxic and/or drugs. Of the patients with tinnitus, 27 (65%) reported hearing loss, 11 (26.19%) temporomandibular dysfunction, and 11 (26.19%) with vestibular disorders. When performing the joint probability analysis, it was found that the probability that a patient with tinnitus having hearing loss was 2742 0.65, and 2042 0.47 for bilateral type. The result for P (A ∩ B)=30%. Bayes' theorem P (AiB) = P(Ai∩B)P(B) was used, and various probabilities were calculated. Therefore, in patients with temporomandibulardysfunction and vestibular disorders, a posterior probability of P (Aі/B)=31.44% was calculated. Consideration should be given to the joint and conditional probability approach as tools for the study of different pathologies. Copyright © 2016 Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Age-0 Lost River sucker and shortnose sucker nearshore habitat use in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon: A patch occupancy approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burdick, S.M.; Hendrixson, H.A.; VanderKooi, S.P.

2008-01-01

We examined habitat use by age-0 Lost River suckers Deltistes luxatus and shortnose suckers Chasmistes brevirostris over six substrate classes and in vegetated and nonvegetated areas of Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. We used a patch occupancy approach to model the effect of physical habitat and water quality conditions on habitat use. Our models accounted for potential inconsistencies in detection probability among sites and sampling occasions as a result of differences in fishing gear types and techniques, habitat characteristics, and age-0 fish size and abundance. Detection probability was greatest during mid- to late summer, when water temperatures were highest and age-0 suckers were the largest. The proportion of sites used by age-0 suckers was inversely related to depth (range = 0.4-3.0 m), particularly during late summer. Age-0 suckers were more likely to use habitats containing small substrate (64 mm) and habitats with vegetation than those without vegetation. Relatively narrow ranges in dissolved oxygen, temperature, and pH prevented us from detecting effects of these water quality features on age-0 sucker nearshore habitat use.

[Age-related features of neuromuscular function in rats with hyperthyroidism].

PubMed

Nerush, P O; Makiĭ, Ie A; Rodyns'kyĭ, O H

2001-01-01

Studied features of functioning of nervous-muscular system at white rats of two age groups: preadolescent (5 weeks) and puberal (24 weeks), in conditions experimental hyperthyroidism (HT). It is established, that in conditions HT at action of the raised concentration thyroxine characteristics of excitation gastrocnemius muscles essentially changed at irritation of a sciatic nerve in groups preadolescent and puberal animals. In all age groups in conditions HT increase of a threshold of excitation gastrocnemius muscles is marked at indirect stimulation and decrease at direct stimulation; also in all age groups in conditions HT reduction of time chronaxy muscles is fixed, both at direct, and at indirect irritation. At preadolescent animals, as against puberal in conditions HT at action of the raised concentration thyroxine on nervous-muscular system it is not revealed authentic change of the latent period and amplitude of potential of action (PA). The conclusion is made, that in conditions HT change of a threshold of excitation and chronaxy gastrocnemius muscles both at direct, and at indirect irritation do not carry age specificity and have an identical orientation, both at preadolescent, and at puberal rats. At preadolescent animals in conditions HT, as against puberal the parameter of amplitude and latent period PA authentically did not change, that can testify to smaller sensitivity of the caused answers gastrocnemius muscles to the raised concentration thyroxine, probably, by virtue of immaturity peripheral neuromotor the device.

Does the probability of developing ocular trauma-related visual deficiency differ between genders?

PubMed

Blanco-Hernández, Dulce Milagros Razo; Valencia-Aguirre, Jessica Daniela; Lima-Gómez, Virgilio

2011-01-01

Ocular trauma affects males more often than females, but the impact of this condition regarding visual prognosis is unknown. We undertook this study to compare the probability of developing ocular trauma-related visual deficiency between genders, as estimated by the ocular trauma score (OTS). We designed an observational, retrospective, comparative, cross-sectional and open-label study. Female patients aged ≥6 years with ocular trauma were included and matched by age and ocular wall status with male patients at a 1:2 male/female ratio. Initial trauma features and the probability of developing visual deficiency (best corrected visual acuity <20/40) 6 months after the injury, as estimated by the OTS, were compared between genders. The proportion and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of visual deficiency 6 months after the injury were estimated. Ocular trauma features and the probability of developing visual deficiency were compared between genders (χ(2) and Fisher's exact test); p value <0.05 was considered significant. Included were 399 eyes (133 from females and 266 from males). Mean age of patients was 25.7 ± 14.6 years. Statistical differences existed in the proportion of zone III in closed globe trauma (p = 0.01) and types A (p = 0.04) and type B (p = 0.02) in open globe trauma. The distribution of the OTS categories was similar for both genders (category 5: p = 0.9); the probability of developing visual deficiency was 32.6% (95% CI = 24.6 to 40.5) in females and 33.2% (95% CI = 27.6 to 38.9) in males (p = 0.9). The probability of developing ocular trauma-related visual deficiency was similar for both genders. The same standard is required.

Probable impact of age and hypoxia on proliferation and microRNA expression profile of bone marrow-derived human mesenchymal stem cells

PubMed Central

Mohd Ali, Norlaily; Boo, Lily; Yeap, Swee Keong; Ky, Huynh; Satharasinghe, Dilan A.; Liew, Woan Charn; Cheong, Soon Keng; Kamarul, Tunku

2016-01-01

Decline in the therapeutic potential of bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) is often seen with older donors as compared to young. Although hypoxia is known as an approach to improve the therapeutic potential of MSC in term of cell proliferation and differentiation capacity, its effects on MSC from aged donors have not been well studied. To evaluate the influence of hypoxia on different age groups, MSC from young (<30 years) and aged (>60 years) donors were expanded under hypoxic (5% O2) and normal (20% O2) culture conditions. MSC from old donors exhibited a reduction in proliferation rate and differentiation potential together with the accumulation of senescence features compared to that of young donors. However, MSC cultured under hypoxic condition showed enhanced self-renewing and proliferation capacity in both age groups as compared to normal condition. Bioinformatic analysis of the gene ontology (GO) and KEGG pathway under hypoxic culture condition identified hypoxia-inducible miRNAs that were found to target transcriptional activity leading to enhanced cell proliferation, migration as well as decrease in growth arrest and apoptosis through the activation of multiple signaling pathways. Overall, differentially expressed miRNA provided additional information to describe the biological changes of young and aged MSCs expansion under hypoxic culture condition at the molecular level. Based on our findings, the therapeutic potential hierarchy of MSC according to donor’s age group and culture conditions can be categorized in the following order: young (hypoxia) > young (normoxia) > old aged (hypoxia) > old aged (normoxia). PMID:26788424

Measurement of Survival Time in Brachionus Rotifers: Synchronization of Maternal Conditions.

PubMed

Kaneko, Gen; Yoshinaga, Tatsuki; Gribble, Kristin E; Welch, David M; Ushio, Hideki

2016-07-22

Rotifers are microscopic cosmopolitan zooplankton used as models in ecotoxicological and aging studies due to their several advantages such as short lifespan, ease of culture, and parthenogenesis that enables clonal culture. However, caution is required when measuring their survival time as it is affected by maternal age and maternal feeding conditions. Here we provide a protocol for powerful and reproducible measurement of the survival time in Brachionus rotifers following a careful synchronization of culture conditions over several generations. Empirically, poor synchronization results in early mortality and a gradual decrease in survival rate, thus resulting in weak statistical power. Indeed, under such conditions, calorie restriction (CR) failed to significantly extend the lifespan of B. plicatilis although CR-induced longevity has been demonstrated with well-synchronized rotifer samples in past and present studies. This protocol is probably useful for other invertebrate models, including the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, because maternal age effects have also been reported in these species.

Measurement of Survival Time in Brachionus Rotifers: Synchronization of Maternal Conditions

PubMed Central

Kaneko, Gen; Yoshinaga, Tatsuki; Gribble, Kristin E.; Welch, David M.; Ushio, Hideki

2016-01-01

Rotifers are microscopic cosmopolitan zooplankton used as models in ecotoxicological and aging studies due to their several advantages such as short lifespan, ease of culture, and parthenogenesis that enables clonal culture. However, caution is required when measuring their survival time as it is affected by maternal age and maternal feeding conditions. Here we provide a protocol for powerful and reproducible measurement of the survival time in Brachionus rotifers following a careful synchronization of culture conditions over several generations. Empirically, poor synchronization results in early mortality and a gradual decrease in survival rate, thus resulting in weak statistical power. Indeed, under such conditions, calorie restriction (CR) failed to significantly extend the lifespan of B. plicatilis although CR-induced longevity has been demonstrated with well-synchronized rotifer samples in past and present studies. This protocol is probably useful for other invertebrate models, including the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, because maternal age effects have also been reported in these species. PMID:27500471

Comparison of clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer and age-adjusted D-dimer interpretation to exclude venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Takach Lapner, Sarah; Julian, Jim A; Linkins, Lori-Ann; Bates, Shannon; Kearon, Clive

2017-10-05

Two new strategies for interpreting D-dimer results have been proposed: i) using a progressively higher D-dimer threshold with increasing age (age-adjusted strategy) and ii) using a D-dimer threshold in patients with low clinical probability that is twice the threshold used in patients with moderate clinical probability (clinical probability-adjusted strategy). Our objective was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of age-adjusted and clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer interpretation in patients with a low or moderate clinical probability of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We performed a retrospective analysis of clinical data and blood samples from two prospective studies. We compared the negative predictive value (NPV) for VTE, and the proportion of patients with a negative D-dimer result, using two D-dimer interpretation strategies: the age-adjusted strategy, which uses a progressively higher D-dimer threshold with increasing age over 50 years (age in years × 10 µg/L FEU); and the clinical probability-adjusted strategy which uses a D-dimer threshold of 1000 µg/L FEU in patients with low clinical probability and 500 µg/L FEU in patients with moderate clinical probability. A total of 1649 outpatients with low or moderate clinical probability for a first suspected deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism were included. The NPV of both the clinical probability-adjusted strategy (99.7 %) and the age-adjusted strategy (99.6 %) were similar. However, the proportion of patients with a negative result was greater with the clinical probability-adjusted strategy (56.1 % vs, 50.9 %; difference 5.2 %; 95 % CI 3.5 % to 6.8 %). These findings suggest that clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer interpretation is a better way of interpreting D-dimer results compared to age-adjusted interpretation.

Frequency and predictive factors for overlap syndrome between autoimmune hepatitis and primary cholestatic liver disease.

PubMed

Gheorghe, Liana; Iacob, Speranta; Gheorghe, Cristian; Iacob, Razvan; Simionov, Iulia; Vadan, Roxana; Becheanu, Gabriel; Parvulescu, Iuliana; Toader, Cristina

2004-06-01

To evaluate the frequency of cholestatic pattern in patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) and to identify predictive factors associated with the development of the overlap syndrome. Eighty-two consecutive patients diagnosed with AIH at the referral centre between January 1998 and June 2002 were included in the study. The new scoring system modified by the International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group was used to classify patients as definite/probable. Overlap syndrome was considered when the patient had clinical, serological and histological characteristics of two conditions: AIH and primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) or AIH and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). From the 82 AIH patients (76 female and six male), 84.1% presented definite AIH (> 15 points) and 15.9% probable AIH (10 - 15 points). The frequency of the overlap syndrome was 20%: 13% with PBC and 7% with PSC. In the univariate analysis the overlap syndrome was associated with male gender (P = 0.01), age < 35 years (P < 0.0001), histopathological aspect of cholestasis (P < 0.0001), suboptimal response to treatment (P < 0.0001) and probable AIH (P < 0.0001). Age < 35 years, probable AIH and the absence of anti-nuclear antibody (ANA) have been identified as independent indicators of the overlap diagnosis by the logistic regression analysis. Patients with overlap syndrome between AIH and primary cholestatic liver disease are frequently diagnosed in clinical practice, representing 20% of AIH cases in our study. The independent predictive factors associated with the diagnosis of overlap syndrome are young age, ANA(-) profile, and probable diagnosis according with the scoring system for AIH.

Mild Cognitive Impairment and driving: Does in-vehicle distraction affect driving performance?

PubMed

Beratis, Ion N; Pavlou, Dimosthenis; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Andronas, Nikolaos; Kontaxopoulou, Dionysia; Fragkiadaki, Stella; Yannis, George; Papageorgiou, Sokratis G

2017-06-01

In-vehicle distraction is considered to be an important cause of road accidents. Drivers with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), because of their attenuated cognitive resources, may be vulnerable to the effects of distraction; however, previous relevant research is lacking. The main objective of the current study was to explore the effect of in-vehicle distraction on the driving performance of MCI patients, by assessing their reaction time at unexpected incidents and accident probability. Thirteen patients with MCI (age: 64.5±7.2) and 12 cognitively intact individuals (age: 60.0±7.7), all active drivers were introduced in the study. The driving simulator experiment included three distraction conditions: (a) undistracted driving, (b) conversing with passenger and (c) conversing through a hand-held mobile phone. The mixed ANOVA models revealed a greater effect of distraction on MCI patients. Specifically, the use of mobile phone induced a more pronounced impact on reaction time and accident probability in the group of patients, as compared to healthy controls. On the other hand, in the driving condition "conversing with passenger" the interaction effects regarding reaction time and accident probability were not significant. Notably, the aforementioned findings concerning the MCI patients in the case of the mobile phone were observed despite the effort of the drivers to apply a compensatory strategy by reducing significantly their speed in this driving condition. Overall, the current findings indicate, for the first time, that a common driving practice, such as the use of mobile phone, may have a detrimental impact on the driving performance of individuals with MCI. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Maya-American Children: A Biocultural View.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bogin, Barry

2002-01-01

Discusses social, economic, and political conditions that influence the growth and health of children of Guatemalan Maya immigrants to the United States. As of 2000, Maya-American children age 6-12 years were, on average, 11 centimeters taller, and also heavier, than their Guatemalan peers. The heaviness is probably due to sedentary lifestyles.…

Using a Betabinomial distribution to estimate the prevalence of adherence to physical activity guidelines among children and youth.

PubMed

Garriguet, Didier

2016-04-01

Estimates of the prevalence of adherence to physical activity guidelines in the population are generally the result of averaging individual probability of adherence based on the number of days people meet the guidelines and the number of days they are assessed. Given this number of active and inactive days (days assessed minus days active), the conditional probability of meeting the guidelines that has been used in the past is a Beta (1 + active days, 1 + inactive days) distribution assuming the probability p of a day being active is bounded by 0 and 1 and averages 50%. A change in the assumption about the distribution of p is required to better match the discrete nature of the data and to better assess the probability of adherence when the percentage of active days in the population differs from 50%. Using accelerometry data from the Canadian Health Measures Survey, the probability of adherence to physical activity guidelines is estimated using a conditional probability given the number of active and inactive days distributed as a Betabinomial(n, a + active days , β + inactive days) assuming that p is randomly distributed as Beta(a, β) where the parameters a and β are estimated by maximum likelihood. The resulting Betabinomial distribution is discrete. For children aged 6 or older, the probability of meeting physical activity guidelines 7 out of 7 days is similar to published estimates. For pre-schoolers, the Betabinomial distribution yields higher estimates of adherence to the guidelines than the Beta distribution, in line with the probability of being active on any given day. In estimating the probability of adherence to physical activity guidelines, the Betabinomial distribution has several advantages over the previously used Beta distribution. It is a discrete distribution and maximizes the richness of accelerometer data.

Modeling take-over performance in level 3 conditionally automated vehicles.

PubMed

Gold, Christian; Happee, Riender; Bengler, Klaus

2018-07-01

Taking over vehicle control from a Level 3 conditionally automated vehicle can be a demanding task for a driver. The take-over determines the controllability of automated vehicle functions and thereby also traffic safety. This paper presents models predicting the main take-over performance variables take-over time, minimum time-to-collision, brake application and crash probability. These variables are considered in relation to the situational and driver-related factors time-budget, traffic density, non-driving-related task, repetition, the current lane and driver's age. Regression models were developed using 753 take-over situations recorded in a series of driving simulator experiments. The models were validated with data from five other driving simulator experiments of mostly unrelated authors with another 729 take-over situations. The models accurately captured take-over time, time-to-collision and crash probability, and moderately predicted the brake application. Especially the time-budget, traffic density and the repetition strongly influenced the take-over performance, while the non-driving-related tasks, the lane and drivers' age explained a minor portion of the variance in the take-over performances. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hybrid machine learning model to predict and visualize nitrate concentration throughout the Central Valley aquifer, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ransom, Katherine M.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Traum, Jonathan A.; Faunt, Claudia; Bell, Andrew M.; Gronberg, Jo Ann M.; Wheeler, David C.; Zamora, Celia; Jurgens, Bryant; Schwarz, Gregory E.; Belitz, Kenneth; Eberts, Sandra; Kourakos, George; Harter, Thomas

2017-01-01

Intense demand for water in the Central Valley of California and related increases in groundwater nitrate concentration threaten the sustainability of the groundwater resource. To assess contamination risk in the region, we developed a hybrid, non-linear, machine learning model within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface. A database of 145 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and landscape-scale nitrogen mass balances, historical and current land use, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The boosted regression tree (BRT) method was used to screen and rank variables to predict nitrate concentration at the depths of domestic and public well supplies. The novel approach included as predictor variables outputs from existing physically based models of the Central Valley. The top five most important predictor variables included two oxidation/reduction variables (probability of manganese concentration to exceed 50 ppb and probability of dissolved oxygen concentration to be below 0.5 ppm), field-scale adjusted unsaturated zone nitrogen input for the 1975 time period, average difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration during the years 1971–2000, and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input. Twenty-five variables were selected for the final model for log-transformed nitrate. In general, increasing probability of anoxic conditions and increasing precipitation relative to potential evapotranspiration had a corresponding decrease in nitrate concentration predictions. Conversely, increasing 1975 unsaturated zone nitrogen leaching flux and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input had an increasing relative impact on nitrate predictions. Three-dimensional visualization indicates that nitrate predictions depend on the probability of anoxic conditions and other factors, and that nitrate predictions generally decreased with increasing groundwater age.

Inter-Population Movements of Steller Sea Lions in Alaska with Implications for Population Separation

PubMed Central

Jemison, Lauri A.; Pendleton, Grey W.; Fritz, Lowell W.; Hastings, Kelly K.; Maniscalco, John M.; Trites, Andrew W.; Gelatt, Tom S.

2013-01-01

Genetic studies and differing population trends support the separation of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) into a western distinct population segment (WDPS) and an eastern DPS (EDPS) with the dividing line between populations at 144° W. Despite little exchange for thousands of years, the gap between the breeding ranges narrowed during the past 15–30 years with the formation of new rookeries near the DPS boundary. We analyzed >22,000 sightings of 4,172 sea lions branded as pups in each DPS from 2000–2010 to estimate probabilities of a sea lion born in one DPS being seen within the range of the other DPS (either ‘West’ or ‘East’). Males from both populations regularly traveled across the DPS boundary; probabilities were highest at ages 2–5 and for males born in Prince William Sound and southern Southeast Alaska. The probability of WDPS females being in the East at age 5 was 0.067 but 0 for EDPS females which rarely traveled to the West. Prince William Sound-born females had high probabilities of being in the East during breeding and non-breeding seasons. We present strong evidence that WDPS females have permanently emigrated to the East, reproducing at two ‘mixing zone’ rookeries. We documented breeding bulls that traveled >6,500 km round trip from their natal rookery in southern Alaska to the northern Bering Sea and central Aleutian Islands and back within one year. WDPS animals began moving East in the 1990s, following steep population declines in the central Gulf of Alaska. Results of our study, and others documenting high survival and rapid population growth in northern Southeast Alaska suggest that conditions in this mixing zone region have been optimal for sea lions. It is unclear whether eastward movement across the DPS boundary is due to less-optimal conditions in the West or a reflection of favorable conditions in the East. PMID:23940543

Inter-population movements of steller sea lions in Alaska with implications for population separation.

PubMed

Jemison, Lauri A; Pendleton, Grey W; Fritz, Lowell W; Hastings, Kelly K; Maniscalco, John M; Trites, Andrew W; Gelatt, Tom S

2013-01-01

Genetic studies and differing population trends support the separation of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) into a western distinct population segment (WDPS) and an eastern DPS (EDPS) with the dividing line between populations at 144° W. Despite little exchange for thousands of years, the gap between the breeding ranges narrowed during the past 15-30 years with the formation of new rookeries near the DPS boundary. We analyzed >22,000 sightings of 4,172 sea lions branded as pups in each DPS from 2000-2010 to estimate probabilities of a sea lion born in one DPS being seen within the range of the other DPS (either 'West' or 'East'). Males from both populations regularly traveled across the DPS boundary; probabilities were highest at ages 2-5 and for males born in Prince William Sound and southern Southeast Alaska. The probability of WDPS females being in the East at age 5 was 0.067 but 0 for EDPS females which rarely traveled to the West. Prince William Sound-born females had high probabilities of being in the East during breeding and non-breeding seasons. We present strong evidence that WDPS females have permanently emigrated to the East, reproducing at two 'mixing zone' rookeries. We documented breeding bulls that traveled >6,500 km round trip from their natal rookery in southern Alaska to the northern Bering Sea and central Aleutian Islands and back within one year. WDPS animals began moving East in the 1990s, following steep population declines in the central Gulf of Alaska. Results of our study, and others documenting high survival and rapid population growth in northern Southeast Alaska suggest that conditions in this mixing zone region have been optimal for sea lions. It is unclear whether eastward movement across the DPS boundary is due to less-optimal conditions in the West or a reflection of favorable conditions in the East.

Individual condition and stream temperature influence early maturation of rainbow and steelhead trout, ncorhynchus mykiss

USGS Publications Warehouse

McMillan, John R.; Dunham, Jason B.; Reeves, Gordon H.; Mills, Justin S.; Jordan, Chris E.

2012-01-01

Alternative male phenotypes in salmonine fishes arise from individuals that mature as larger and older anadromous marine-migrants or as smaller and younger freshwater residents. To better understand the processes influencing the expression of these phenotypes we examined the influences of growth in length (fork length) and whole body lipid content in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Fish were sampled from the John Day River basin in northeast Oregon where both anadromous ("steelhead") and freshwater resident rainbow trout coexist. Larger males with higher lipid levels had a greater probability of maturing as a resident at age-1+. Among males, 38% were maturing overall, and the odds ratios of the logistic model indicated that the probability of a male maturing early as a resident at age-1+ increased 49% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 23-81%) for every 5 mm increase in length and 33% (95% CI = 10-61%) for every 0.5% increase in whole body lipid content. There was an inverse association between individual condition and water temperature as growth was greater in warmer streams while whole body lipid content was higher in cooler streams. Our results support predictions from life history theory and further suggest that relationships between individual condition, maturation, and environmental variables (e.g., water temperature) are shaped by complex developmental and evolutionary influences.

Evaluation of a Diffusion/Trapping Model for Hydrogen Ingress in High- Strength Alloys

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-10-01

high-strength steels [3-5], precipitation -hardened and work-hardened nickel-base alloys [3-61, and titanium [71 and was shown to be effective in...other two alloys, Ti-13-11-3 was tested in the unaged and age- conditions to establish the role of the secondary (x phase precipitated during aging... maraging steel , so it probably takes the form of reversible trapping [5,29]. Hence, grain boundaries are considered to be the most likely sites for

Optimum space shuttle launch times relative to natural environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, R. L.

1977-01-01

Three sets of meteorological criteria were analyzed to determine the probabilities of favorable launch and landing conditions. Probabilities were computed for every 3 hours on a yearly basis using 14 years of weather data. These temporal probability distributions, applicable to the three sets of weather criteria encompassing benign, moderate and severe weather conditions, were computed for both Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Edwards Air Force Base. In addition, conditional probabilities were computed for unfavorable weather conditions occurring after a delay which may or may not be due to weather conditions. Also, for KSC, the probabilities of favorable landing conditions at various times after favorable launch conditions have prevailed have been computed so that mission probabilities may be more accurately computed for those time periods when persistence strongly correlates weather conditions. Moreover, the probabilities and conditional probabilities of the occurrence of both favorable and unfavorable events for each individual criterion were computed to indicate the significance of each weather element to the overall result.

Bowel adenocarcinoma in a patient with cystic fibrosis.

PubMed

Roberts, J A; Tullett, W M; Thomas, J S; Galloway, D; Stack, B H

1986-04-01

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is an autosomal recessive condition affecting one in 2,000 live births in the UK. There are few reports of malignant tumours in this condition probably because, until recently, the majority died before the age of 30 years as a result of recurrent and chronic bronchopulmonary infection with impaired growth and development and resistance to infection due to pancreatic malabsorption. We describe an adult male with CF who died from an adenocarcinoma affecting the ileocaecal region of the bowel.

Academic Research Equipment in Selected Science Engineering Fields: 1982-83 to 1985-86.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burgdorf, Kenneth; Chaney, Bradford

This report presents information for identification of the national trends in the amount, age, loss, condition, and perceived adequacy of academic research equipment in selected science and engineering fields. The data were obtained from a stratified probability sample of 55 colleges and universities and from a separately selected sample of 24…

Long-term natural history of liver disease in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection: an analysis using the Markov chain model.

PubMed

Tada, Toshifumi; Kumada, Takashi; Toyoda, Hidenori; Ohisa, Masayuki; Akita, Tomoyuki; Tanaka, Junko

2018-04-19

The relationship between the hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion and the long-term natural history of liver disease has not been sufficiently investigated. A total of 408 [4352 person-year (PY) units] patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) without antiviral therapy were enrolled. The study patients were divided into three groups, as follows: Group A (2666 PY units), seroconverted of HBeAg at age < 40; Group B (413 PY units), seroconverted of HBeAg at age ≥ 40; Group C (1273 PY units), persistently HBeAg positive. Yearly transition probabilities from each liver state [chronic HBV infection, chronic hepatitis B, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) negativity] were calculated using the Markov chain model. In the analysis of 1 year liver disease state transition probabilities, the liver states remained almost the same in Group A. In Groups B and C, each liver state tended to progress to a worse state. Assuming a chronic hepatitis B state at age 40 as the starting condition for simulation over the next 40 years, the chronic hepatitis B state accounted for approximately 60% of males aged ≥ 50 and approximately 40% of females aged ≥ 60 in Group A, and the HBsAg-negative state accounted for approximately 30-40% of males and females aged ≥ 60. In Groups B and C, the probabilities of patients with cirrhosis and HCC gradually increased with age. Not only patients with persistent HBeAg positive, but also patients with delayed HBeAg seroconversion showed poor prognosis of liver-related natural history.

Age at menarche: the influence of environmental conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saar, E.; Shalev, C.; Dalal, I.; Sod-Moriah, U. A.

1988-03-01

Age at menarche was studied by the recollection method in two groups of Causasian Jewish high school girls, inhabitants of two towns in Israel, Safad and Elat. The two towns differ mainly in climatic conditions. The age at menarche was found to be significantly lower ( P<0.02) in the hot town of Elat than in the temperate town of Safad: 13.30±1.21 and 13.58±0.9 years, respectively (mean ±SD). A significant association was found between the age at menarche and the town in which the girls lived. Accordingly, in the hot town of Elat, the percentage of girls who had their first menstrual cycle by the age of 12 years and earlier, was more than double that of the girls in Safad (17.9% and 7.1%, respectively). It is concluded that the environmental temperature, with or without any possible interaction of humidity, is probably responsible for the tendency for an earlier onset of menarche in girls living in the hot town of Elat.

Lung function decline over 25 years of follow-up among black and white adults in the ARIC study cohort.

PubMed

Mirabelli, Maria C; Preisser, John S; Loehr, Laura R; Agarwal, Sunil K; Barr, R Graham; Couper, David J; Hankinson, John L; Hyun, Noorie; Folsom, Aaron R; London, Stephanie J

2016-04-01

Interpretation of longitudinal information about lung function decline from middle to older age has been limited by loss to follow-up that may be correlated with baseline lung function or the rate of decline. We conducted these analyses to estimate age-related decline in lung function across groups of race, sex, and smoking status while accounting for dropout from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. We analyzed data from 13,896 black and white participants, aged 45-64 years at the 1987-1989 baseline clinical examination. Using spirometry data collected at baseline and two follow-up visits, we estimated annual population-averaged mean changes in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) by race, sex, and smoking status using inverse-probability-weighted independence estimating equations conditioning-on-being-alive. Estimated rates of FEV1 decline estimated using inverse-probability-weighted independence estimating equations conditioning on being alive were higher among white than black participants at age 45 years (e.g., male never smokers: black: -29.5 ml/year; white: -51.9 ml/year), but higher among black than white participants by age 75 (black: -51.2 ml/year; white: -26). Observed differences by race were more pronounced among men than among women. By smoking status, FEV1 declines were larger among current than former or never smokers at age 45 across all categories of race and sex. By age 60, FEV1 decline was larger among former and never than current smokers. Estimated annual declines generated using unweighted generalized estimating equations were smaller for current smokers at younger ages in all four groups of race and sex compared with results from weighted analyses that accounted for attrition. Using methods accounting for dropout from an approximately 25-year health study, estimated rates of lung function decline varied by age, race, sex, and smoking status, with largest declines observed among current smokers at younger ages. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Age-related changes in decision making: comparing informed and noninformed situations.

PubMed

Van Duijvenvoorde, Anna C K; Jansen, Brenda R J; Bredman, Joren C; Huizenga, Hilde M

2012-01-01

Advantageous decision making progressively develops into early adulthood, most specifically in complex and motivationally salient decision situations in which direct feedback on gains and losses is provided (Figner & Weber, 2011). However, the factors that underlie this developmental improvement in decision making are still not well understood. The current study therefore investigates 2 potential factors, long-term memory and working memory, by assigning a large developmental sample (7-29 years of age) to a condition with either high or low demands on long-term and working memory. The first condition featured an age-adapted version of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT; Bechara, Damasio, Damasio, & Anderson, 1994; i.e., a noninformed situation), whereas the second condition provided an external store where explicit information on gains, losses, and probabilities per choice option was presented (i.e., an informed situation). Consistent with previous developmental IGT studies, children up to age 12 did not learn to prefer advantageous options in the noninformed condition. In contrast, all age groups learned to prefer the advantageous options in the informed conditions, although a slight developmental increase in advantageous decision making remained. These results indicate that lowering dependence on long-term and working memory improves children's advantageous decision making. The results additionally suggest that other factors, like inhibitory control processes, may play an additional role in the development of advantageous decision making.

ERPs, semantic processing and age.

PubMed

Miyamoto, T; Katayama, J; Koyama, T

1998-06-01

ERPs (N400, LPC and CNV) were elicited in two sets of subjects grouped according to age (young vs. elderly) using a word-pair category matching paradigm. Each prime consisted of a Japanese noun (constructed from two to four characters of the Hiragana) followed by one Chinese character (Kanji) as the target, this latter representing one of five semantic categories. There were two equally probable target conditions: match or mismatch. Each target was preceded by a prime, either belonging to, or not belonging to, the same semantic category. The subjects were required to respond with a specified button press to the given target according to the condition. We found RTs to be longer in the elderly subjects and under the mismatch condition. N400 amplitude was reduced in the elderly subjects under the mismatch condition and there was no difference between match and mismatch response, which were similar in amplitude to that under match condition for the young subjects. In addition, the CNV amplitudes were larger in the elderly subjects. These results suggested that functional changes in semantic processing through aging (larger semantic networks and diffuse semantic activation) were the cause of this N400 reduction, attributing a subsidiary role to attentional disturbance. We also discuss the importance of taking age-related changes into consideration in clinical studies.

From Parasite Encounter to Infection: Multiple-Scale Drivers of Parasite Richness in a Wild Social Primate Population

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benavides J. A.; Huchard, E.; Pettorelli, N.; King, A. J.; Brown, M. E.; Archer, C. E.; Appleton, C. C.; Raymond, M.; Cowlishaw, G.

2011-01-01

Host parasite diversity plays a fundamental role in ecological and evolutionary processes, yet the factors that drive it are still poorly understood. A variety of processes, operating across a range of spatial scales, are likely to influence both the probability of parasite encounter and subsequent infection. Here, we explored eight possible determinants of parasite richness, comprising rainfall and temperature at the population level, ranging behavior and home range productivity at the group level, and age, sex, body condition, and social rank at the individual level. We used a unique dataset describing gastrointestinal parasites in a terrestrial subtropical vertebrate (chacma baboons, Papio ursinus), comprising 662 faecal samples from 86 individuals representing all age-sex classes across two groups over two dry seasons in a desert population. Three mixed models were used to identify the most important factor at each of the three spatial scales (population, group, individual); these were then standardised and combined in a single, global, mixed model. Individual age had the strongest influence on parasite richness, in a convex relationship. Parasite richness was also higher in females and animals in poor condition, albeit at a lower order of magnitude than age. Finally, with a further halving of effect size, parasite richness was positively correlated to day range and temperature. These findings indicate that a range of factors influence host parasite richness through both encounter and infection probabilities, but that individual-level processes may be more important than those at the group or population level.

Risks and probabilities of breast cancer: short-term versus lifetime probabilities.

PubMed Central

Bryant, H E; Brasher, P M

1994-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To calculate age-specific short-term and lifetime probabilities of breast cancer among a cohort of Canadian women. DESIGN: Double decrement life table. SETTING: Alberta. SUBJECTS: Women with first invasive breast cancers registered with the Alberta Cancer Registry between 1985 and 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime probability of breast cancer from birth and for women at various ages; short-term (up to 10 years) probability of breast cancer for women at various ages. RESULTS: The lifetime probability of breast cancer is 10.17% at birth and peaks at 10.34% at age 25 years, after which it decreases owing to a decline in the number of years over which breast cancer risk will be experienced. However, the probability of manifesting breast cancer in the next year increases steadily from the age of 30 onward, reaching 0.36% at 85 years. The probability of manifesting the disease within the next 10 years peaks at 2.97% at age 70 and decreases thereafter, again owing to declining probabilities of surviving the interval. CONCLUSIONS: Given that the incidence of breast cancer among Albertan women during the study period was similar to the national average, we conclude that currently more than 1 in 10 women in Canada can expect to have breast cancer at some point during their life. However, risk varies considerably over a woman's lifetime, with most risk concentrated after age 49. On the basis of the shorter-term age-specific risks that we present, the clinician can put breast cancer risk into perspective for younger women and heighten awareness among women aged 50 years or more. PMID:8287343

Case−Control Study of Risk Factors for Meningococcal Disease in Chile

PubMed Central

Matute, Isabel; González, Claudia; Delgado, Iris; Poffald, Lucy; Pedroni, Elena; Alfaro, Tania; Hirmas, Macarena; Nájera, Manuel; Gormaz, Ana; López, Darío; Loayza, Sergio; Ferreccio, Catterina; Gallegos, Doris; Fuentes, Rodrigo; Vial, Pablo; Aguilera, Ximena

2017-01-01

An outbreak of meningococcal disease with a case-fatality rate of 30% and caused by predominantly serogroup W of Neisseria meningitidis began in Chile in 2012. This outbreak required a case−control study to assess determinants and risk factors for infection. We identified confirmed cases during January 2012−March 2013 and selected controls by random sampling of the population, matched for age and sex, resulting in 135 case-patients and 618 controls. Sociodemographic variables, habits, and previous illnesses were studied. Analyses yielded adjusted odds ratios as estimators of the probability of disease development. Results indicated that conditions of social vulnerability, such as low income and overcrowding, as well as familial history of this disease and clinical histories, especially chronic diseases and hospitalization for respiratory conditions, increased the probability of illness. Findings should contribute to direction of intersectoral public policies toward a highly vulnerable social group to enable them to improve their living conditions and health. PMID:28628448

Demographic patterns of Ferocactus cylindraceus in relation to substrate age and grazing history

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.

1997-01-01

Three subpopulations of Ferocactus cylindraceus, a short-columnar cactus of the Sonoran and Mojave deserts, were sampled in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA, at sites representing a range of substrate ages and different grazing histories. Age-height relations were determined from annual growth, then used to estimate probable year of establishment for each cohort. Eight years between 1944 and 1992 were especially favorable for establishment. Six of these 8 years coincided with El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions, indicating that as for many woody plants in arid regions, somewhat unusual climatic conditions are necessary if populations are to replace themselves. Comparison of age structures showed that established and developing populations have somewhat different dynamics in that the rate of population increase was slowest on the youngest terrace. On the ancient terraces, about half the plants were less than 25 years old. Plants older than 40 years were few; however the oldest plants in the study (about 49 years) grew on the ancient terraces. On the recent terrace, 76% of the subpopulation was 25 years or younger, and the oldest living plant was about 36 years of age. The age structures of subpopulations on grazed and ungrazed sites also differed markedly. On ungrazed sites, subpopulations were more or less at equilibrium, with enough young plants to replace old ones as they died. In contrast, the subpopulation on the grazed site was in a state of marked disequilibrium. Grazing before 1981 largely extirpated a palatable subshrub that was probably an important nurse plant. Until the shrub population at Indian Canyon recovers from decades of burro grazing, a rebound in E cylindraceus establishment is not to be expected.

Students' Understanding of Conditional Probability on Entering University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reaburn, Robyn

2013-01-01

An understanding of conditional probability is essential for students of inferential statistics as it is used in Null Hypothesis Tests. Conditional probability is also used in Bayes' theorem, in the interpretation of medical screening tests and in quality control procedures. This study examines the understanding of conditional probability of…

Correlation between women's sub-health and reproductive diseases with pregnancies and labors.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaojuan; Zeng, Qian; Ding, Hong; Feng, Lingyan; Deng, Linwen

2014-08-01

To investigate whether female sub-health conditions and reproductive diseases are associated with pregnancies and labors. A cross-sectional survey was performed by using a structured questionnaire. A total of 1343 women aged 35 years or younger in six urban areas of Chengdu were included in the study. According to the Screening Criteria of sub-health conditions, these women were categorized into three groups: postpartum healthy group, sub-healthy group, and reproductive disease group. Data were double-entered using EpiData and then analyzed by SPSS. Pregnancy and labor were correlated with postpartum sub-health conditions. The number of pregnancies was negatively correlated with women's postnatal health but was positively correlated with the incidence of postpartum reproductive diseases. The number of pregnancies and labors is probably an important factor leading to sub-health conditions and the occurrence of reproductive diseases in women. Avoiding or reducing unwanted pregnancies and labors, enhancing the awareness of health among childbearing-age women are effective measures for preventing sub-health conditions.

Temporal patterns of apparent leg band retention in North American geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Kendall, William L.; Moser, Timothy J.; White, Gary C.; Doherty, Paul F.

2009-01-01

An important assumption of mark?recapture studies is that individuals retain their marks, which has not been assessed for goose reward bands. We estimated aluminum leg band retention probabilities and modeled how band retention varied with band type (standard vs. reward band), band age (1-40 months), and goose characteristics (species and size class) for Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (Branta hutchinsii), snow (Chen caerulescens), and Ross?s (Chen rossii) geese that field coordinators double-leg banded during a North American goose reward band study (N = 40,999 individuals from 15 populations). We conditioned all models in this analysis on geese that were encountered with >1 leg band still attached (n = 5,747 dead recoveries and live recaptures). Retention probabilities for standard aluminum leg bands were high (estimate of 0.9995, SE = 0.001) and constant over 1-40 months. In contrast, apparent retention probabilities for reward bands demonstrated an interactive relationship between 5 size and species classes (small cackling, medium Canada, large Canada, snow, and Ross?s geese). In addition, apparent retention probabilities for each of the 5 classes varied quadratically with time, being lower immediately after banding and at older age classes. The differential retention probabilities among band type (reward vs. standard) that we observed suggests that 1) models estimating reporting probability should incorporate differential band loss if it is nontrivial, 2) goose managers should consider the costs and benefits of double-banding geese on an operational basis, and 3) the United States Geological Survey Bird Banding Lab should modify protocols for receiving recovery data.

A Comparison of Urge Intensity and the Probability of Tic Completion During Tic Freely and Tic Suppression Conditions.

PubMed

Specht, Matt W; Nicotra, Cassandra M; Kelly, Laura M; Woods, Douglas W; Ricketts, Emily J; Perry-Parrish, Carisa; Reynolds, Elizabeth; Hankinson, Jessica; Grados, Marco A; Ostrander, Rick S; Walkup, John T

2014-03-01

Tic-suppression-based treatments (TSBTs) represent a safe and effective treatment option for Chronic Tic Disorders (CTDs). Prior research has demonstrated that treatment naive youths with CTDs have the capacity to safely and effectively suppress tics for prolonged periods. It remains unclear how tic suppression is achieved. The current study principally examines how effective suppression is achieved and preliminary correlates of the ability to suppress tics. Twelve youths, ages 10 to 17 years, with moderate-to-marked CTDs participated in an alternating sequence of tic freely and reinforced tic suppression conditions during which urge intensity and tic frequency were frequently assessed. Probability of tics occurring was half as likely following high-intensity urges during tic suppression (31%) in contrast to low-intensity urges during tic freely conditions (60%). Age was not associated with ability to suppress. Intelligence indices were associated with or trended toward greater ability to suppress tics. Attention difficulties were not associated with ability to suppress but were associated with tic severity. In contrast to our "selective suppression" hypothesis, we found participants equally capable of suppressing their tics regardless of urge intensity during reinforced tic suppression. Tic suppression was achieved with an "across-the-board" effort to resist urges. Preliminary data suggest that ability to suppress may be associated with general cognitive variables rather than age, tic severity, urge severity, and attention. Treatment naive youths appear to possess a capacity for robust tic suppression. TSBTs may bolster these capacities and/or enable their broader implementation, resulting in symptom improvement. © The Author(s) 2014.

CPROB: A COMPUTATIONAL TOOL FOR CONDUCTING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

Conditional probability analysis measures the probability of observing one event given that another event has occurred. In an environmental context, conditional probability analysis helps assess the association between an environmental contaminant (i.e. the stressor) and the ec...

Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

PubMed

Neuner, Susanne; Albrecht, Axel; Cullmann, Dominik; Engels, Friedrich; Griess, Verena C; Hahn, W Andreas; Hanewinkel, Marc; Härtl, Fabian; Kölling, Christian; Staupendahl, Kai; Knoke, Thomas

2015-02-01

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Study on conditional probability of surface rupture: effect of fault dip and width of seismogenic layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, N.

2017-12-01

The conditional probability of surface ruptures is affected by various factors, such as shallow material properties, process of earthquakes, ground motions and so on. Toda (2013) pointed out difference of the conditional probability of strike and reverse fault by considering the fault dip and width of seismogenic layer. This study evaluated conditional probability of surface rupture based on following procedures. Fault geometry was determined from the randomly generated magnitude based on The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2017) method. If the defined fault plane was not saturated in the assumed width of the seismogenic layer, the fault plane depth was randomly provided within the seismogenic layer. The logistic analysis was performed to two data sets: surface displacement calculated by dislocation methods (Wang et al., 2003) from the defined source fault, the depth of top of the defined source fault. The estimated conditional probability from surface displacement indicated higher probability of reverse faults than that of strike faults, and this result coincides to previous similar studies (i.e. Kagawa et al., 2004; Kataoka and Kusakabe, 2005). On the contrary, the probability estimated from the depth of the source fault indicated higher probability of thrust faults than that of strike and reverse faults, and this trend is similar to the conditional probability of PFDHA results (Youngs et al., 2003; Moss and Ross, 2011). The probability of combined simulated results of thrust and reverse also shows low probability. The worldwide compiled reverse fault data include low fault dip angle earthquake. On the other hand, in the case of Japanese reverse fault, there is possibility that the conditional probability of reverse faults with less low dip angle earthquake shows low probability and indicates similar probability of strike fault (i.e. Takao et al., 2013). In the future, numerical simulation by considering failure condition of surface by the source fault would be performed in order to examine the amount of the displacement and conditional probability quantitatively.

The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin; Volume XII; A Multinomial Model for Estimating Ocean Survival from Salmonid Coded Wire-Tag Data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ryding, Kristen E.; Skalski, John R.

1999-06-01

The purpose of this report is to illustrate the development of a stochastic model using coded wire-tag (CWT) release and age-at-return data, in order to regress first year ocean survival probabilities against coastal ocean conditions and climate covariates.

A feature-based developmental model of the infant brain in structural MRI.

PubMed

Toews, Matthew; Wells, William M; Zöllei, Lilla

2012-01-01

In this paper, anatomical development is modeled as a collection of distinctive image patterns localized in space and time. A Bayesian posterior probability is defined over a random variable of subject age, conditioned on data in the form of scale-invariant image features. The model is automatically learned from a large set of images exhibiting significant variation, used to discover anatomical structure related to age and development, and fit to new images to predict age. The model is applied to a set of 230 infant structural MRIs of 92 subjects acquired at multiple sites over an age range of 8-590 days. Experiments demonstrate that the model can be used to identify age-related anatomical structure, and to predict the age of new subjects with an average error of 72 days.

Susceptibility and resilience to memory aging stereotypes: education matters more than age.

PubMed

Andreoletti, Carrie; Lachman, Margie E

2004-01-01

The authors examined whether the memory performance of young, middle-aged, and older adults would be influenced by stereotype versus counterstereotype information about age differences on a memory task. One hundred forty-nine adults from a probability sample were randomly assigned to a control group or to age-stereotype conditions. As predicted, counterstereotype information was related to higher recall compared to stereotype and control groups. This was true across all age groups, but only for those with more education. Both stereotype and counterstereotype information were related to lower recall compared to the control group across age groups for those with lower education. Results suggest those with more education are more resilient when faced with negative age stereotypes about memory and respond positively to counterstereotype information. In contrast, those with less education show greater susceptibility to the detrimental effects of age stereotypes and respond negatively to both stereotype and counterstereotype information about memory aging.

Delaying childbearing: effect of age on fecundity and outcome of pregnancy.

PubMed Central

van Noord-Zaadstra, B M; Looman, C W; Alsbach, H; Habbema, J D; te Velde, E R; Karbaat, J

1991-01-01

OBJECTIVES--To study the age of the start of the fall (critical age) in fecundity; the probability of a pregnancy leading to a healthy baby taking into account the age of the woman; and, combining these results, to determine the age dependent probability of getting a healthy baby. DESIGN--Cohort study of all women who had entered a donor insemination programme. SETTING--Two fertility clinics serving a large part of The Netherlands. SUBJECTS--Of 1637 women attending for artificial insemination 751 fulfilled the selection criteria, being married to an azoospermic husband and nulliparous and never having received donor insemination before. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--The number of cycles before pregnancy (a positive pregnancy test result) or stopping treatment; and result of the pregnancy (successful outcome). RESULTS--Of the 751 women, 555 became pregnant and 461 had healthy babies. The fall in fecundity was estimated to start at around 31 years (critical age); after 12 cycles the probability of pregnancy in a woman aged greater than 31 was 0.54 compared with 0.74 in a woman aged 20.31. After 24 cycles this difference had decreased (probability of conception 0.75 in women greater than 31 and 0.85 in women 20.31). The probability of having a healthy baby also decreased--by 3.5% a year after the age of 30. Combining both these age effects, the chance of a woman aged 35 having a healthy baby was about half that of a woman aged 25. CONCLUSION--After the age of 31 the probability of conception falls rapidly, but this can be partly compensated for by continuing insemination for more cycles. In addition, the probability of an adverse pregnancy outcome starts to increase at about the same age. PMID:2059713

Analyses of factors of crash avoidance maneuvers using the general estimates system.

PubMed

Yan, Xuedong; Harb, Rami; Radwan, Essam

2008-06-01

Taking an effective corrective action to a critical traffic situation provides drivers an opportunity to avoid crash occurrence and minimize crash severity. The objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between the probability of taking corrective actions and the characteristics of drivers, vehicles, and driving environments. Using the 2004 GES crash database, this study classified drivers who encountered critical traffic events (identified as P_CRASH3 in the GES database) into two pre-crash groups: corrective avoidance actions group and no corrective avoidance actions group. Single and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to identify potential traffic factors associated with the probability of drivers taking corrective actions. The regression results showed that the driver/vehicle factors associated with the probability of taking corrective actions include: driver age, gender, alcohol use, drug use, physical impairments, distraction, sight obstruction, and vehicle type. In particular, older drivers, female drivers, drug/alcohol use, physical impairment, distraction, or poor visibility may increase the probability of failing to attempt to avoid crashes. Moreover, drivers of larger size vehicles are 42.5% more likely to take corrective avoidance actions than passenger car drivers. On the other hand, the significant environmental factors correlated with the drivers' crash avoidance maneuver include: highway type, number of lanes, divided/undivided highway, speed limit, highway alignment, highway profile, weather condition, and surface condition. Some adverse highway environmental factors, such as horizontal curves, vertical curves, worse weather conditions, and slippery road surface conditions are correlated with a higher probability of crash avoidance maneuvers. These results may seem counterintuitive but they can be explained by the fact that motorists may be more likely to drive cautiously in those adverse driving environments. The analyses revealed that drivers' distraction could be the highest risk factor leading to the failure of attempting to avoid crashes. Further analyses entailing distraction causes (e.g., cellular phone use) and their possible countermeasures need to be conducted. The age and gender factors are overrepresented in the "no avoidance maneuver." A possible solution could involve the integration of a new function in the current ITS technologies. A personalized system, which could be related to the expected type of maneuver for a driver with certain characteristics, would assist different drivers with different characteristics to avoid crashes. Further crash database studies are recommended to investigate the association of drivers' emergency maneuvers such as braking, steering, or their combination with crash severity.

The relationship between diabetes, diabetes-related complications and productive activities among older Europeans.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Sanchez, B; Alessie, R J M; Feenstra, T L; Angelini, V

2018-06-01

To assess the impact of diabetes and diabetes-related complications on two measures of productivity for people in the labour force and out of it, namely "being afraid health limits ability to work before retirement" and "volunteering". Logistic regressions were run to test the impact of diabetes and its complications on the probability of being afraid health limits work and being a formal volunteer. The longitudinal sample for the former outcome includes 53,631 observations, clustered in 34,393 individuals, aged 50-65 years old whereas the latter consists of 45,384 observations, grouped in 29,104 individuals aged 65 and above across twelve European countries taken from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, from 2006 to 2013. Diabetes increased the probability of being afraid health limited work by nearly 11% points, adjusted by clinical complications, and reduced the likelihood of being a formal volunteer by 2.7% points, additionally adjusted by mobility problems. We also found that both the probability of being afraid health limits work and the probability of being a formal volunteer increased during and after the crisis. Moreover, having diabetes had a larger effect on being afraid health limits work during the year 2010, possibly related to the financial crisis. Our findings show that diabetes significantly affects the perception of people regarding the effects of their condition on work, increasing the fear that health limits their ability to work, especially during the crisis year 2010, as well as the participation in volunteering work among retired people.

The relationship between maternal education and reported childhood conditions.

PubMed

Berchick, Edward R

2016-12-01

Children of more-educated mothers tend to be healthier than children of less-educated mothers. However, in the United States, evidence for this relationship largely focuses on summary measures of health, such as subjective health status, birth weight, and height. Few studies have examined the relationship between mothers' education and children's reported conditions, the health metric that underlies many policy decisions concerning population health. Contrary to stylized facts about socioeconomic gradients in health, higher detection and reporting rates may lead to higher reporting rates among children of more-educated mothers, despite their better underlying health. This reporting pattern that might not mirror gradients for summary health measures. To examine this possibility, I investigate the association between maternal education and nine health conditions in the 1998-2014 National Health Interview Surveys (n = 176,097). I consider variation in the maternal education gradient across the specific reported conditions that children experience, paying particular attention to how patterns differ across children's ages. Results suggest that, unlike for the income gradient in child health, the relationship between maternal education and reported conditions varies in magnitude and direction across conditions. With some exceptions, the probability of reporting a diagnosed condition increases with maternal schooling. For some diagnoses, like asthma, this relationship is curvilinear, with an inverse gradient for children of the most educated mothers. However, the probability of reporting conditions that require neither diagnosis nor substantial parent-child involvement for detection tends to be flat across maternal education. Contrary to expectations, these relationships tend to be more pronounced for children who are 6 years of age or older than for younger children. These results expand understanding of the production and reporting of early-life health inequalities and illustrate limitations of an oft-used health metric. Reported conditions may underestimate socioeconomic inequalities in children's health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short assessment of the Big Five: robust across survey methods except telephone interviewing.

PubMed

Lang, Frieder R; John, Dennis; Lüdtke, Oliver; Schupp, Jürgen; Wagner, Gert G

2011-06-01

We examined measurement invariance and age-related robustness of a short 15-item Big Five Inventory (BFI-S) of personality dimensions, which is well suited for applications in large-scale multidisciplinary surveys. The BFI-S was assessed in three different interviewing conditions: computer-assisted or paper-assisted face-to-face interviewing, computer-assisted telephone interviewing, and a self-administered questionnaire. Randomized probability samples from a large-scale German panel survey and a related probability telephone study were used in order to test method effects on self-report measures of personality characteristics across early, middle, and late adulthood. Exploratory structural equation modeling was used in order to test for measurement invariance of the five-factor model of personality trait domains across different assessment methods. For the short inventory, findings suggest strong robustness of self-report measures of personality dimensions among young and middle-aged adults. In old age, telephone interviewing was associated with greater distortions in reliable personality assessment. It is concluded that the greater mental workload of telephone interviewing limits the reliability of self-report personality assessment. Face-to-face surveys and self-administrated questionnaire completion are clearly better suited than phone surveys when personality traits in age-heterogeneous samples are assessed.

Dental age estimation: the role of probability estimates at the 10 year threshold.

PubMed

Lucas, Victoria S; McDonald, Fraser; Neil, Monica; Roberts, Graham

2014-08-01

The use of probability at the 18 year threshold has simplified the reporting of dental age estimates for emerging adults. The availability of simple to use widely available software has enabled the development of the probability threshold for individual teeth in growing children. Tooth development stage data from a previous study at the 10 year threshold were reused to estimate the probability of developing teeth being above or below the 10 year thresh-hold using the NORMDIST Function in Microsoft Excel. The probabilities within an individual subject are averaged to give a single probability that a subject is above or below 10 years old. To test the validity of this approach dental panoramic radiographs of 50 female and 50 male children within 2 years of the chronological age were assessed with the chronological age masked. Once the whole validation set of 100 radiographs had been assessed the masking was removed and the chronological age and dental age compared. The dental age was compared with chronological age to determine whether the dental age correctly or incorrectly identified a validation subject as above or below the 10 year threshold. The probability estimates correctly identified children as above or below on 94% of occasions. Only 2% of the validation group with a chronological age of less than 10 years were assigned to the over 10 year group. This study indicates the very high accuracy of assignment at the 10 year threshold. Further work at other legally important age thresholds is needed to explore the value of this approach to the technique of age estimation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Oral health conditions and frailty in Mexican community-dwelling elderly: a cross sectional analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Oral health is an important component of general well-being for the elderly. Oral health-related problems include loss of teeth, nonfunctional removable dental prostheses, lesions of the oral mucosa, periodontitis, and root caries. They affect food selection, speaking ability, mastication, social relations, and quality of life. Frailty is a geriatric syndrome that confers vulnerability to negative health-related outcomes. The association between oral health and frailty has not been explored thoroughly. This study sought to identify associations between the presence of some oral health conditions, and frailty status among Mexican community-dwelling elderly. Methods Analysis of baseline data of the Mexican Study of Nutritional and Psychosocial Markers of Frailty, a cohort study carried out in a representative sample of people aged 70 and older residing in one district of Mexico City. Frailty was defined as the presence of three or more of the following five components: weight loss, exhaustion, slowness, weakness, and low physical activity. Oral health variables included self-perception of oral health compared with others of the same age; utilization of dental services during the last year, number of teeth, dental condition (edentate, partially edentate, or completely dentate), utilization and functionality of removable partial or complete dentures, severe periodontitis, self-reported chewing problems and xerostomia. Covariates included were gender, age, years of education, cognitive performance, smoking status, recent falls, hospitalization, number of drugs, and comorbidity. The association between frailty and dental variables was determined performing a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Final models were adjusted by socio-demographic and health factors Results Of the 838 participants examined, 699 had the information needed to establish the criteria for diagnosis of frailty. Those who had a higher probability of being frail included women (OR = 1.9), those who reported myocardial infarction (OR = 3.8), urinary incontinence (OR = 2.7), those who rated their oral health worse than others (OR = 3.2), and those who did not use dental services (OR = 2.1). For each additional year of age and each additional drug consumed, the probability of being frail increased 10% and 30%, respectively. Conclusions Utilization of dental services and self-perception of oral health were associated with a higher probability of being frail. PMID:22971075

Ethnicity and Changing Functional Health in Middle and Late Life: A Person-Centered Approach

PubMed Central

Xu, Xiao; Bennett, Joan M.; Ye, Wen; Quiñones, Ana R.

2010-01-01

Objectives. Following a person-centered approach, this research aims to depict distinct courses of disability and to ascertain how the probabilities of experiencing these trajectories vary across Black, Hispanic, and White middle-aged and older Americans. Methods. Data came from the 1995–2006 Health and Retirement Study, which involved a national sample of 18,486 Americans older than 50 years of age. Group-based semiparametric mixture models (Proc Traj) were used for data analysis. Results. Five trajectories were identified: (a) excellent functional health (61%), (b) good functional health with small increasing disability (25%), (c) accelerated increase in disability (7%), (d) high but stable disability (4%), and (e) persistent severe impairment (3%). However, when time-varying covariates (e.g., martial status and health conditions) were controlled, only 3 trajectories emerged: (a) healthy functioning (53%), moderate functional decrement (40%), and (c) large functional decrement (8%). Black and Hispanic Americans had significantly higher probabilities than White Americans in experiencing poor functional health trajectories, with Blacks at greater risks than Hispanics. Conclusions. Parallel to the concepts of successful aging, usual aging, and pathological aging, there exist distinct courses of changing functional health over time. The mechanisms underlying changes in disability may vary between Black and Hispanic Americans. PMID:20008483

Conditional survival of all primary brain tumor patients by age, behavior, and histology.

PubMed

Porter, Kimberly R; McCarthy, Bridget J; Berbaum, Michael L; Davis, Faith G

2011-01-01

Survival statistics commonly reflect survival from the time of diagnosis but do not take into account survival already achieved after a diagnosis. The objective of this study was to provide conditional survival estimates for brain tumor patients as a more accurate measure of survival for those who have already survived for a specified amount of time after diagnosis. Data on primary malignant and nonmalignant brain tumor cases diagnosed from 1985-2005 from selected SEER state cancer registries were obtained. Relative survival up to 15 years postdiagnosis and varying relative conditional survival rates were computed using the life-table method. The overall 1-year relative survival estimate derived from time of diagnosis was 67.8% compared to the 6-month relative conditional survival rate of 85.7% for 6-month survivors (the probability of surviving to 1 year given survival to 6 months). The 10-year overall relative survival rate was 49.5% from time of diagnosis compared to the 8-year relative conditional survival rate of 79.2% for 2-year survivors. Conditional survival estimates and standard survival estimates varied by histology, behavior, and age at diagnosis. The 5-year relative survival estimate derived from time of diagnosis for glioblastoma was 3.6% compared to the 3-year relative conditional survival rate of 36.4% for 2-year survivors. For most nonmalignant tumors, the difference between relative survival and the corresponding conditional survival estimates were minimal. Older age groups had greater numeric gains in survival but lower conditional survival estimates than other age groups. Similar findings were seen for other conditional survival intervals. Conditional survival is a useful disease surveillance measure for clinicians and brain tumor survivors to provide them with better 'real-time' estimates and hope. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Optimum space shuttle launch times relative to natural environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, R. L.

1977-01-01

The probabilities of favorable and unfavorable weather conditions for launch and landing of the STS under different criteria were computed for every three hours on a yearly basis using 14 years of weather data. These temporal probability distributions were considered for three sets of weather criteria encompassing benign, moderate and severe weather conditions for both Kennedy Space Center and for Edwards Air Force Base. In addition, the conditional probabilities were computed for unfavorable weather conditions occurring after a delay which may or may not be due to weather conditions. Also for KSC, the probabilities of favorable landing conditions at various times after favorable launch conditions have prevailed. The probabilities were computed to indicate the significance of each weather element to the overall result.

Revisiting the impact of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours.

PubMed

Di Pietro, Giorgio

2018-02-01

This paper estimates the average population effect of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours accounting for the heterogeneous impact of the business cycle on individuals. While previous studies use models relying on area-specific unemployment rates to estimate this average effect, this paper employs a model based on area-specific unemployment rates by gender and age group. The rationale for breaking down unemployment rates is that the severity of cyclical upturns and downturns does not only significantly vary across geographical areas, but also across gender and age. The empirical analysis uses microdata from the Italian Multipurpose Household Survey on Everyday Life Issues. The estimates suggest that models employing aggregated and disaggregated unemployment rate measures as a proxy for the business cycle produce similar findings for some health behaviours (such as smoking), whereas different results are obtained for others. While using unemployment rates by gender and age group, fruits and/or vegetables consumption turns out to be procyclical (a 1pp increase in this unemployment rate decreases the probability of consuming at least five daily fruit and/or vegetable servings by 0.0016pp), the opposite effect, though statistically insignificant, is observed once general unemployment rates are used. While both models conclude that physical activity declines during economic downturns, the size of the procyclical effect is much smaller when employing disaggregated rather than aggregated unemployment rates (a 1pp increase in the unemployment rate by gender and age group decreases the probability of doing any physical activity by 0.0017pp). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Physician Delegation to Other Health Care Providers on the Quality of Care for Geriatric Conditions

PubMed Central

Lichtenstein, Brian J.; Reuben, David B.; Karlamangla, Arun S.; Han, Weijuan; Roth, Carol P.; Wenger, Neil S.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES to examine the effects of delegation on quality of care that patients receive for three common geriatric conditions: dementia, falls, and incontinence. DESIGN pooled analysis of 8 the Assessing Care of Vulnerable Elders (ACOVE) projects from 1998 to 2010. SETTING 15 ambulatory practice sites across the United States PARTICIPANTS 4,776 patients age ≥ 65 years, of mixed demographic backgrounds who participated in ACOVE studies. INTERVENTION multivariate analysis of prior ACOVE observation and intervention studies was conducted, with in addition to two retrospectively defined variables: “intent to delegate” and “maximum delegation” for each ACOVE quality indicator (QI). MEASUREMENTS The primary outcome for the study was QI pass probability, by level of delegation, for 47 ACOVE quality indicators. RESULTS A total of 4,776 patients were evaluated, with 16,204 QIs included for analysis. Across all studies, QI pass probabilities were 0.36 for physician-performed tasks; 0.55 for nurse practitioner (NP), physician assistant (PA), and registered nurse (RN)-performed tasks; and 0.61 for medical assistant (MA), or licensed vocational nurse (LVN)-performed tasks. In multiply adjusted models, the independent pass-probability effect of delegation to NPs, PAs, or RNs was 1.37 (p = 0.055) CONCLUSIONS Delegation to non-physician providers is associated with higher quality of care for geriatric conditions in community practices and supports the value of interdisciplinary team management for common outpatient conditions among older adults. PMID:26480977

Thermal and mechanical quantitative sensory testing in Chinese patients with burning mouth syndrome--a probable neuropathic pain condition?

PubMed

Mo, Xueyin; Zhang, Jinglu; Fan, Yuan; Svensson, Peter; Wang, Kelun

2015-01-01

To explore the hypothesis that burning mouth syndrome (BMS) probably is a neuropathic pain condition, thermal and mechanical sensory and pain thresholds were tested and compared with age- and gender-matched control participants using a standardized battery of psychophysical techniques. Twenty-five BMS patients (men: 8, women: 17, age: 49.5 ± 11.4 years) and 19 age- and gender-matched healthy control participants were included. The cold detection threshold (CDT), warm detection threshold (WDT), cold pain threshold (CPT), heat pain threshold (HPT), mechanical detection threshold (MDT) and mechanical pain threshold (MPT), in accordance with the German Network of Neuropathic Pain guidelines, were measured at the following four sites: the dorsum of the left hand (hand), the skin at the mental foramen (chin), on the tip of the tongue (tongue), and the mucosa of the lower lip (lip). Statistical analysis was performed using ANOVA with repeated measures to compare the means within and between groups. Furthermore, Z-score profiles were generated, and exploratory correlation analyses between QST and clinical variables were performed. Two-tailed tests with a significance level of 5 % were used throughout. CDTs (P < 0.02) were significantly lower (less sensitivity) and HPTs (P < 0.001) were significantly higher (less sensitivity) at the tongue and lip in BMS patients compared to control participants. WDT (P = 0.007) was also significantly higher at the tongue in BMS patients compared to control subjects . There were no significant differences in MDT and MPT between the BMS patients and healthy subjects at any of the four test sites. Z-scores showed that significant loss of function can be identified for CDT (Z-scores = -0.9±1.1) and HPT (Z-scores = 1.5±0.4). There were no significant correlations between QST and clinical variables (pain intensity, duration, depressions scores). BMS patients had a significant loss of thermal function but not mechanical function, supporting the hypothesis that BMS may be a probable neuropathic pain condition. Further studies including e.g. electrophysiological or imaging techniques are needed to clarify the underlying mechanisms of BMS.

Assessment of a ground water flow model of the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, using carbon-14-based ages and paleohydrology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanford, W.E.; Buapeng, S.

1996-01-01

A study was undertaken to understand the groundwater flow conditions in the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, by comparing 14C-based and simulated groundwater ages. 14C measurements were made on about 50 water samples taken from wells throughout the basin. Simulated ages were obtained using 1) backward-pathline tracking based on the well locations, and 2) results from a three-dimensional groundwater flow model. Comparisons of ages at these locations reveal a large difference between 14C-based ages and ages predicted by the steady-state groundwater flow model. Mainly, 14C and 13C analyses indicate that groundwater in the Bangkok area is about 20,000 years old, whereas steady-state flow and transport simulations imply that groundwater in the Bangkok area is 50,000-100,000 years old. One potential reason for the discrepancy between simulated and 14C-based ages is the assumption in the model of steady-state flow. Groundwater velocities were probably greater in the region before about 10,000 years ago, during the last glacial maximum, because of the lower position of sea level and the absence of the surficial Bangkok Clay. Paleoflow conditions were estimated and then incorporated into a second set of simulations. The new assumption was that current steady-state flow conditions existed for the last 8,000 years but were preceded by steady-state conditions representative of flow during the last glacial maximum. This "transient" paleohydrologic simulation yielded a mean simulated age that more closely agrees with the mean 14C-based age, especially if the 14C-based age is corrected for diffusion into clay layers. Although the uncertainties in both the simulated and 14C-based ages are nontrivial, the magnitude of the improved match in the mean age using a paleohydrologic simulation instead of a steady-state simulation suggests that flow conditions in the basin have changed significantly over the last 10,000-20,000 years. Given that the valid age range of 14C-dating methods and the timing of the last glacial maximum are of similar magnitude, adjustments for paleohydrologic conditions may be required for many such studies.

The Estimation of Tree Posterior Probabilities Using Conditional Clade Probability Distributions

PubMed Central

Larget, Bret

2013-01-01

In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample. [Bayesian phylogenetics; conditional clade distributions; improved accuracy; posterior probabilities of trees.] PMID:23479066

A Feature-based Developmental Model of the Infant Brain in Structural MRI

PubMed Central

Toews, Matthew; Wells, William M.; Zöllei, Lilla

2014-01-01

In this paper, anatomical development is modeled as a collection of distinctive image patterns localized in space and time. A Bayesian posterior probability is defined over a random variable of subject age, conditioned on data in the form of scale-invariant image features. The model is automatically learned from a large set of images exhibiting significant variation, used to discover anatomical structure related to age and development, and fit to new images to predict age. The model is applied to a set of 230 infant structural MRIs of 92 subjects acquired at multiple sites over an age range of 8-590 days. Experiments demonstrate that the model can be used to identify age-related anatomical structure, and to predict the age of new subjects with an average error of 72 days. PMID:23286050

An Alternative Version of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of Probability Logic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satake, Eiki; Amato, Philip P.

2008-01-01

This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

Informativeness of Early Huntington Disease Signs about Gene Status.

PubMed

Oster, Emily; Eberly, Shirley W; Dorsey, E Ray; Kayson-Rubin, Elise; Oakes, David; Shoulson, Ira

2015-01-01

The cohort-level risk of Huntington disease (HD) is related to the age and symptom level of the cohort, but this relationship has not been made precise. To predict the evolving likelihood of carrying the Huntington disease (HD) gene for at-risk adults using age and sign level. Using data from adults with early signs and symptoms of HD linked to information on genetic status, we use Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability that an undiagnosed individual of a certain age and sign level has an expanded CAG repeat. Both age and sign levels have substantial influence on the likelihood of HD onset, and the probability of eventual diagnosis changes as those at risk age and exhibit (or fail to exhibit) symptoms. For example, our data suggest that in a cohort of individuals age 26 with a Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS) motor score of 7-10 70% of them will carry the HD mutation. For individuals age 56, the same motor score suggests only a 40% chance of carrying the mutation. Early motor signs of HD, overall and the chorea subscore, were highly predictive of disease onset at any age. However, body mass index (BMI) and cognitive performance scores were not as highly predictive. These results suggest that if researchers or clinicians are looking for early clues of HD, it may be more foretelling to look at motor rather than cognitive signs. Application of similar approaches could be used with other adult-onset genetic conditions.

On the Fatal Crash Experience of Older Drivers

PubMed Central

Kent, Richard; Henary, Basem; Matsuoka, Fumio

2005-01-01

This study describes the fatal crash experiences of older drivers. Data from two U.S. databases (NASS-CDS and FARS) were used. Several crash, vehicle, and occupant characteristics were compared across age groups, including vehicle type, crash direction (PDOF), severity (ΔV), and injured body region. A sub-set of 97 fatally injured drivers was chosen for a detailed case study. The mean travel speed, ΔV, and airbag deployment rate decreased significantly with age (p<0.001 unless noted). Mortality rate increased significantly with age. Older drivers killed were significantly more likely to die of a chest injury (47.3% vs. 24.0% in youngest group) and less likely to die of a head injury (22.0% vs. 47.1% in youngest group). Older drivers were more likely to die at a date after the crash date (“delayed death”), as were males (p=0.003). A 16-year-old driver had a 10.8%–12.0% probability of delayed death, while a 75-year-old had a 20.7%–22.7% probability. For those having a delayed death, the length of the delay increased significantly with age (2.9 days for age 16 vs. 7.9 for age 75). A subjective assessment of the case files indicated that frailty or a pre-existing health condition played a role in 4.3% of the younger drivers’ deaths, but 50.0% of the older group. PMID:16179160

A systematic review and meta-regression analysis of mivacurium for tracheal intubation.

PubMed

Vanlinthout, L E H; Mesfin, S H; Hens, N; Vanacker, B F; Robertson, E N; Booij, L H D J

2014-12-01

We systematically reviewed factors associated with intubation conditions in randomised controlled trials of mivacurium, using random-effects meta-regression analysis. We included 29 studies of 1050 healthy participants. Four factors explained 72.9% of the variation in the probability of excellent intubation conditions: mivacurium dose, 24.4%; opioid use, 29.9%; time to intubation and age together, 18.6%. The odds ratio (95% CI) for excellent intubation was 3.14 (1.65-5.73) for doubling the mivacurium dose, 5.99 (2.14-15.18) for adding opioids to the intubation sequence, and 6.55 (6.01-7.74) for increasing the delay between mivacurium injection and airway insertion from 1 to 2 min in subjects aged 25 years and 2.17 (2.01-2.69) for subjects aged 70 years, p < 0.001 for all. We conclude that good conditions for tracheal intubation are more likely by delaying laryngoscopy after injecting a higher dose of mivacurium with an opioid, particularly in older people. © 2014 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

Poverty and transitions in health in later life.

PubMed

Adena, Maja; Myck, Michal

2014-09-01

Using a sample of Europeans aged 50+ from 12 countries in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we analyse the role of poor material conditions as a determinant of changes in health over a four- to five-year period. We find that poverty defined with respect to relative income has no effect on changes in health. However, broader measures of poor material conditions, such as subjective poverty or low wealth, significantly increase the probability of transition to poor health among the healthy and reduce the chance of recovery from poor health over the time interval analysed. In addition to this, the subjective measure of poverty has a significant effect on mortality, increasing it by 65% among men and by 68% among those aged 50-64. Material conditions affect health among older people. We suggest that if attempts to reduce poverty in later life and corresponding policy targets are to focus on the relevant measures, they should take into account broader definitions of poverty than those based only on relative incomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chronic disease, risk factors and disability in adults aged 50 and above living with and without HIV: findings from the Wellbeing of Older People Study in Uganda.

PubMed

Mugisha, Joseph O; Schatz, Enid J; Randell, Madeleine; Kuteesa, Monica; Kowal, Paul; Negin, Joel; Seeley, Janet

2016-01-01

Data on the prevalence of chronic conditions, their risk factors, and their associations with disability in older people living with and without HIV are scarce in sub-Saharan Africa. In older people living with and without HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: 1) to describe the prevalence of chronic conditions and their risk factors and 2) to draw attention to associations between chronic conditions and disability. Cross-sectional individual-level survey data from people aged 50 years and over living with and without HIV were analyzed from three study sites in Uganda. Diagnoses of chronic conditions were made through self-report, and disability was determined using the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS). We used ordered logistic regression and calculated predicted probabilities to show differences in the prevalence of multiple chronic conditions across HIV status, age groups, and locality. We used linear regression to determine associations between chronic conditions and the WHODAS. In total, 471 participants were surveyed; about half the respondents were living with HIV. The prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and eye problems (except for those aged 60-69 years) was higher in the HIV-positive participants and increased with age. The prevalence of diabetes and angina was higher in HIV-negative participants. The odds of having one or more compared with no chronic conditions were higher in women (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.3) and in those aged 70 years and above (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.2-3.6). Sleep problems (coefficient 14.2, 95% CI 7.3-21.0) and depression (coefficient 9.4, 95% CI 1.2-17.0) were strongly associated with higher disability scores. Chronic conditions are common in older adults and affect their functioning. Many of these conditions are not currently addressed by health services in Uganda. There is a need to revise health care policy and practice in Uganda to consider the health needs of older people, particularly as the numbers of people living into older age with HIV and other chronic conditions are increasing.

An Alternative Teaching Method of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of the Truth Table

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satake, Eiki; Vashlishan Murray, Amy

2015-01-01

This paper presents a comparison of three approaches to the teaching of probability to demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic can be used to teach the calculations of conditional probabilities. Students are typically introduced to the topic of conditional probabilities--especially the ones that involve Bayes' rule--with…

Time preference and its relationship with age, health, and survival probability

PubMed Central

Chao, Li-Wei; Szrek, Helena; Pereira, Nuno Sousa; Pauly, Mark V.

2009-01-01

Although theories from economics and evolutionary biology predict that one's age, health, and survival probability should be associated with one's subjective discount rate (SDR), few studies have empirically tested for these links. Our study analyzes in detail how the SDR is related to age, health, and survival probability, by surveying a sample of individuals in townships around Durban, South Africa. In contrast to previous studies, we find that age is not significantly related to the SDR, but both physical health and survival expectations have a U-shaped relationship with the SDR. Individuals in very poor health have high discount rates, and those in very good health also have high discount rates. Similarly, those with expected survival probability on the extremes have high discount rates. Therefore, health and survival probability, and not age, seem to be predictors of one's SDR in an area of the world with high morbidity and mortality. PMID:20376300

Use of portable antennas to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish in small streams: Factors affecting detection probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Horton, Gregg E.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2010-01-01

Portable passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems can be valuable in providing reliable estimates of the abundance of tagged Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in small streams under a wide range of conditions. We developed and employed PIT tag antenna wand techniques in two controlled experiments and an additional case study to examine the factors that influenced our ability to estimate population size. We used Pollock's robust-design capture–mark–recapture model to obtain estimates of the probability of first detection (p), the probability of redetection (c), and abundance (N) in the two controlled experiments. First, we conducted an experiment in which tags were hidden in fixed locations. Although p and c varied among the three observers and among the three passes that each observer conducted, the estimates of N were identical to the true values and did not vary among observers. In the second experiment using free-swimming tagged fish, p and c varied among passes and time of day. Additionally, estimates of N varied between day and night and among age-classes but were within 10% of the true population size. In the case study, we used the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to examine the variation in p, and we compared counts of tagged fish found with the antenna wand with counts collected via electrofishing. In that study, we found that although p varied for age-classes, sample dates, and time of day, antenna and electrofishing estimates of N were similar, indicating that population size can be reliably estimated via PIT tag antenna wands. However, factors such as the observer, time of day, age of fish, and stream discharge can influence the initial and subsequent detection probabilities.

Fitness prospects: effects of age, sex and recruitment age on reproductive value in a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Zhang, He; Rebke, Maren; Becker, Peter H; Bouwhuis, Sandra

2015-01-01

Reproductive value is an integrated measure of survival and reproduction fundamental to understanding life-history evolution and population dynamics, but little is known about intraspecific variation in reproductive value and factors explaining such variation, if any. By applying generalized additive mixed models to longitudinal individual-based data of the common tern Sterna hirundo, we estimated age-specific annual survival probability, breeding probability and reproductive performance, based on which we calculated age-specific reproductive values. We investigated effects of sex and recruitment age (RA) on each trait. We found age effects on all traits, with survival and breeding probability declining with age, while reproductive performance first improved with age before levelling off. We only found a very small, marginally significant, sex effect on survival probability, but evidence for decreasing age-specific breeding probability and reproductive performance with RA. As a result, males had slightly lower age-specific reproductive values than females, while birds of both sexes that recruited at the earliest ages of 2 and 3 years (i.e. 54% of the tern population) had somewhat higher fitness prospects than birds recruiting at later ages. While the RA effects on breeding probability and reproductive performance were statistically significant, these effects were not large enough to translate to significant effects on reproductive value. Age-specific reproductive values provided evidence for senescence, which came with fitness costs in a range of 17-21% for the sex-RA groups. Our study suggests that intraspecific variation in reproductive value may exist, but that, in the common tern, the differences are small. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

The Probability Approach to English If-Conditional Sentences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Mei

2012-01-01

Users of the Probability Approach choose the right one from four basic types of conditional sentences--factual, predictive, hypothetical and counterfactual conditionals, by judging how likely (i.e. the probability) the event in the result-clause will take place when the condition in the if-clause is met. Thirty-three students from the experimental…

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

Probability and predictors of treatment-seeking for substance use disorders in the U.S.

PubMed

Blanco, Carlos; Iza, Miren; Rodríguez-Fernández, Jorge Mario; Baca-García, Enrique; Wang, Shuai; Olfson, Mark

2015-04-01

Little is known about to what extent treatment-seeking behavior varies across individuals with alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, drug abuse, and drug dependence. The sample included respondents from the Wave 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) who reported a lifetime diagnosis alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, drug abuse, or drug dependence. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios are presented for time to first treatment contact by sociodemographic characteristics and comorbid psychiatric disorders. Individuals were censored from the analyses if their condition remitted prior to seeking treatment. In the first year after disorder onset, rates of treatment-seeking were 13% for drug dependence, 5% for alcohol dependence, 2% for drug abuse, and 1% for alcohol abuse. The lifetime probability of seeking treatment among individuals who did not remit was also highest for drug dependence (90%), followed by drug abuse (60%), alcohol dependence (54%), and alcohol abuse (16%). Having had previous treatment contact for a substance use disorder (SUD) increased the probability of seeking treatment for another SUD. By contrast, an early age of SUD onset, belonging to an older cohort, and a higher level of education decreased the lifetime probability of treatment contact for SUD. The role of comorbid mental disorders was more complex, with some disorders increasing and other decreasing the probability of seeking treatment. Given high rates of SUD and their substantial health and economic burden, these patterns suggest the need for innovative approaches to increase treatment access for individuals with SUD. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Probability and predictors of treatment-seeking for substance use disorders in the U.S

PubMed Central

Blanco, Carlos; Iza, Miren; Rodríguez-Fernández, Jorge Mario; Baca-García, Enrique; Wang, Shuai; Olfson, Mark

2016-01-01

Background Little is known about to what extent treatment-seeking behavior varies across individuals with alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, drug abuse, and drug dependence. Methods The sample included respondents from the Wave 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) who reported a lifetime diagnosis alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, drug abuse, or drug dependence. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios are presented for time to first treatment contact by sociodemographic characteristics and comorbid psychiatric disorders. Individuals were censored from the analyses if their condition remitted prior to seeking treatment. Results In the first year after disorder onset, rates of treatment-seeking were 13% for drug dependence, 5% for alcohol dependence, 2% for drug abuse, and 1% for alcohol abuse. The lifetime probability of seeking treatment among individuals who did not remit was also highest for drug dependence (90%), followed by drug abuse (60%), alcohol dependence (54%), and alcohol abuse (16%). Having had previous treatment contact for a substance use disorder (SUD) increased the probability of seeking treatment for another SUD. By contrast, an early age of SUD onset, belonging to an older cohort, and a higher level of education decreased the lifetime probability of treatment contact for SUD. The role of comorbid mental disorders was more complex, with some disorders increasing and other decreasing the probability of seeking treatment. Conclusions Given high rates of SUD and their substantial health and economic burden, these patterns suggest the need for innovative approaches to increase treatment access for individuals with SUD. PMID:25725934

Healthiness of Survival and Quality of Death Among Oldest Old in China Using Fuzzy Sets

PubMed Central

Gu, Danan; Zeng, Yi

2012-01-01

Objectives To investigate healthiness of survival and quality of death among oldest-old Chinese. Methods Grade of Membership (GoM) method is applied to fulfill our goals using a nationwide longitudinal survey in China. Results GoM method generates six pure types/profiles for healthiness of survival and five profiles/types for quality of death. The authors combine these 11 profiles into 4 groups. On average, a Chinese oldest old from 1998 to 2000 had 48% probability of experiencing healthy survival, with 30% experiencing unhealthy survival, 11% having nonsuffering death, and 11% having suffering death. Similar memberships of dying with nonsuffering conditions are found across ages among the decedents. Men have a higher probability of being in healthy survival and nonsuffering death as compared to women. Marriage, high social connections, nonsmoking, and regular exercise are important contributors to healthy survival and quality of death. Discussion It is possible to live to ages 100 and beyond without much suffering. PMID:22992893

The long lasting effects of education on old age health: evidence of gender differences.

PubMed

Mazzonna, Fabrizio

2014-01-01

The large and positive association between education and many health outcomes is well-documented but what drives this association is still a matter of discussion in the literature. Exploiting the time and geographical exogenous variation in compulsory schooling laws across 6 European countries this paper shows evidence of large and positive effects of the additional year of schooling induced by these policies only on men's self reported health, depression and memory in old age. Furthermore, results suggest that these effects come mainly through an improvement in men's working conditions with small or no role played by income and health related behaviors. On the other hand, since women affected by compulsory school reforms show a very low labor force attachment, they do not show similar spillovers. These policies only have mixed effects on women's health related behaviors. In particular, affected women show a lower probability of being overweight, but also a higher probability of having ever smoked. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Increased reaction times and reduced response preparation already starts at middle age

PubMed Central

Wolkorte, Ria; Kamphuis, Janine; Zijdewind, Inge

2014-01-01

Generalized slowing characterizes aging and there is some evidence to suggest that this slowing already starts at midlife. This study aims to assess reaction time changes while performing a concurrent low-force and high-force motor task in young and middle-aged subjects. The high-force motor task is designed to induce muscle fatigue and thereby progressively increase the attentional demands. Twenty-five young (20–30 years, 12 males) and 16 middle-aged (35–55 years, 9 males) adults performed an auditory two-choice reaction time task (CRT) with and without a concurrent low- or high-force motor task. The CRT required subjects to respond to two different stimuli that occurred with a probability of 70 or 30%. The motor task consisted of index finger abduction, at either 10% (10%-dual-task) or 30% (30%-dual-task) of maximal voluntary force. Cognitive task performance was measured as percentage of correct responses and reaction times. Middle-aged subjects responded slower on the frequent but more accurately on the infrequent stimuli of CRT than young subjects. Both young and middle-aged subjects showed increased errors and reaction times while performing under dual-task conditions and both outcome measures increased further under fatiguing conditions. Only under 30%-dual-task demands, an age-effect on dual-task performance was present. Both single- and dual-task conditions showed that already at mid-life response preparation is seriously declined and that subjects implement different strategies to perform a CRT task. PMID:24808862

Aging causes exacerbated ischemic brain injury and failure of sevoflurane post-conditioning: role of B-cell lymphoma-2.

PubMed

Dong, P; Zhao, J; Zhang, Y; Dong, J; Zhang, L; Li, D; Li, L; Zhang, X; Yang, B; Lei, W

2014-09-05

Aging is associated with exacerbated brain injury after ischemic stroke. Herein, we explored the possible mechanisms underlying the age-associated exacerbated brain injury after ischemic stroke and determined whether therapeutic intervention with anesthetic post-conditioning would provide neuroprotection in aged rats. Male Fisher 344 rats (young, 4 months; aged, 24 months) underwent 2h of middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) followed by 24-h reperfusion, with or without sevoflurane post-conditioning for 15 min immediately at the onset of reperfusion. Compared with young rats, aged rats showed larger infarct size, worse neurological scores and more TUNEL-positive cells in the penumbral cerebral cortex at 24h after MCAO. However, edema formation and motor coordination were similar in both groups. Sevoflurane reduced the infarct size, edema formation, and TUNEL-positive cells, and improved the neurological outcome in young rats but not in aged rats. Molecular studies revealed that basal expression of the anti-apoptotic molecule B-cell lymphoma-2 (Bcl-2) in the brain was lower in aged rats compared with young rats before MCAO, while basal expression of the pro-apoptotic molecule Bcl-2-associated X protein (Bax) showed similar levels in both groups. MCAO reduced Bcl-2 expression and increased Bax expression in both groups; however, Bax increase was more pronounced in aged rats. In young rats, sevoflurane reversed the above MCAO-induced changes. In contrast, sevoflurane failed to enhance Bcl-2 expression but decreased Bax expression in aged rats. These findings suggest that aging-associated reduction in basal Bcl-2 expression in the brain contributes to increased neuronal injury by enhancing cell apoptosis after ischemic stroke. Sevoflurane post-conditioning failed to provide neuroprotection in aged rats, probably due to its inability to increase Bcl-2 levels and prevent apoptosis in the brain. Copyright © 2014 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conditional net survival: Relevant prognostic information for colorectal cancer survivors. A French population-based study.

PubMed

Drouillard, Antoine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Rollot, Fabien; Faivre, Jean; Jooste, Valérie; Lepage, Côme

2015-07-01

Traditionally, survival estimates have been reported as survival from the time of diagnosis. A patient's probability of survival changes according to time elapsed since the diagnosis and this is known as conditional survival. The aim was to estimate 5-year net conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer in a well-defined French population at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Our study included 18,300 colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 and registered in the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). We calculated conditional 5-year net survival, using the Pohar Perme estimator, for every additional year survived after diagnosis from 1 to 5 years. The initial 5-year net survival estimates varied between 89% for stage I and 9% for advanced stage cancer. The corresponding 5-year net survival for patients alive after 5 years was 95% and 75%. Stage II and III patients who survived 5 years had a similar probability of surviving 5 more years, respectively 87% and 84%. For survivors after the first year following diagnosis, five-year conditional net survival was similar regardless of age class and period of diagnosis. For colorectal cancer survivors, conditional net survival provides relevant and complementary prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vocabulary Facilitates Speech Perception in Children With Hearing Aids

PubMed Central

Walker, Elizabeth A.; Kirby, Benjamin; McCreery, Ryan W.

2017-01-01

Purpose We examined the effects of vocabulary, lexical characteristics (age of acquisition and phonotactic probability), and auditory access (aided audibility and daily hearing aid [HA] use) on speech perception skills in children with HAs. Method Participants included 24 children with HAs and 25 children with normal hearing (NH), ages 5–12 years. Groups were matched on age, expressive and receptive vocabulary, articulation, and nonverbal working memory. Participants repeated monosyllabic words and nonwords in noise. Stimuli varied on age of acquisition, lexical frequency, and phonotactic probability. Performance in each condition was measured by the signal-to-noise ratio at which the child could accurately repeat 50% of the stimuli. Results Children from both groups with larger vocabularies showed better performance than children with smaller vocabularies on nonwords and late-acquired words but not early-acquired words. Overall, children with HAs showed poorer performance than children with NH. Auditory access was not associated with speech perception for the children with HAs. Conclusions Children with HAs show deficits in sensitivity to phonological structure but appear to take advantage of vocabulary skills to support speech perception in the same way as children with NH. Further investigation is needed to understand the causes of the gap that exists between the overall speech perception abilities of children with HAs and children with NH. PMID:28738138

Health care utilization in the elderly Mexican population: expenditures and determinants.

PubMed

González-González, César; Sánchez-García, Sergio; Juárez-Cedillo, Teresa; Rosas-Carrasco, Oscar; Gutiérrez-Robledo, Luis M; García-Peña, Carmen

2011-03-29

Worldwide population aging has been considered one of the most important demographic phenomena, and is frequently referred as a determinant of health costs and expenditures. These costs are an effect either of the aging process itself (social) or because of the increase that comes with older age (individual). To analyze health expenditures and its determinants in a sample of Mexican population, for three dimensions acute morbidity, ambulatory care and hospitalization focusing on different age groups, particularly the elderly. A secondary analysis of the Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT), 2006 was conducted. A descriptive analysis was performed to establish a health profile by socio-demographic characteristics. Logistic regression models were estimated to determine the relation between acute morbidity, ambulatory care, hospitalization and age group; to establish the determinants of hospitalization among the population 60 years and older; and to determine hospitalization expenditures by age. Higher proportion of elderly reporting health problems was found. Average expenditures of hospitalization in households were $240.6 am dlls, whereas in households exclusively with elderly the expenditure was $308.9 am dlls, the highest among the considered age groups. The multivariate analysis showed higher probability of being hospitalized among the elderly, but not for risks for acute morbidity and ambulatory care. Among the elderly, older age, being male or living in a city or in a metro area implied a higher probability of hospitalization during the last year, with chronic diseases playing a key role in hospitalization. The conditions associated with age, such as chronic diseases, have higher weight than age itself; therefore, they are responsible for the higher expenditures reported. Conclusions point towards a differentiated use and intensity of health services depending on age. The projected increase in hospitalization and health care needs for this group requires immediate attention.

Women's health: explaining the trend in gender ratio in Iran over half a century (1956-2006).

PubMed

Farzadi, F; Ahmadi, B; Shariati, B; Alimohamadian, M; Mohamad, K

2010-02-01

Changes in gender ratio generally reflect differences in mortality rates in men and women. Female mortality rates, on the other hand, can be used as an index of the trends in women's health. This study looks at the trend in the population gender ratio from 1956 to 2006, with a focus on analysing mortality rates and hence the overall health of Iranian women over the last 50 years. Cohort-type analysis using data from the last five population censuses in Iran. Data were used to calculate gender ratios and analyse their trends over the 50-year period from 1956 to 2006. According to the 1956 Census, there were 98 men for every 100 women in the 25-34 years age group (male:female ratio=0.98). In the next census, conducted 10 years later (1966), the gender ratio increased to 121 in the 39-44 years age group. The discrepancy increased in later censuses; this trend indicates that mortality in the 25-34 years age group was significantly higher in 1956-1966 compared with subsequent decades. The social and economic crises of the 1940s probably left women of reproductive age exceptionally vulnerable to a wide range of adverse health outcomes. The fact that the trend ceased in 1976 with no further increase in the gender ratio may be due to improving social conditions and greater effectiveness of healthcare programmes directed at women. As life expectancy is calculated on the basis of the conditional probability of death over specific intervals, the apparent discrepancy between the current gender ratios and life expectancy data may be due to higher female death rates before 1976. Copyright 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early environment and recruitment of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) into the breeding population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, James S.; Herzog, Mark P.; Ward, David H.

2004-01-01

In geese, growth regulates survival in the first year. We examined whether early growth, which is primarily governed by environmental conditions, also affects the probability that individuals that survive their first year enter the breeding population. We used logistic regression on a sample of Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) that were weighed at a known age in their first summer and observed during winter (indicating that they had survived the principal mortality period in their first year) to study whether early growth influenced the probability that those individuals would be recruited into the breeding population. We also examined the effects of cohort (1986-1996), sex, age when measured, and area where individuals were reared. The model with the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion score contained body mass, age (days) at measurement, cohort, sex, and brood-rearing area. Models that included variable mass had 85% of the cumulative model weight of the models we considered, indicating that gosling mass had a substantial effect on probability of them entering the breeding population. Females were more likely to be detected breeding than males, which is consistent with the differential fidelity of the sexes. Of individuals that survived the first year, larger goslings were more likely to become breeders. More recent cohorts were less likely to have been detected as breeders. Our findings indicate that environment during the growth period affects the ability of individuals to enter the breeding population, even after accounting for the effects of growth on survival.

Detection, prevalence, and transmission of avian hematozoa in waterfowl at the Arctic/sub-Arctic interface: co-infections, viral interactions, and sources of variation.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meixell, Brandt W.; Arnold, Todd W.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Smith, Matthew M.; Runstadler, Jonathan A.; Ramey, Andy M.

2016-01-01

Methods: We used molecular methods to screen blood samples and cloacal/oropharyngeal swabs collected from 1347 ducks of five species during May-August 2010, in interior Alaska, for the presence of hematozoa, Influenza A Virus (IAV), and IAV antibodies. Using models to account for imperfect detection of parasites, we estimated seasonal variation in prevalence of three parasite genera (Haemoproteus, Plasmodium, Leucocytozoon) and investigated how co-infection with parasites and viruses were related to the probability of infection. Results: We detected parasites from each hematozoan genus in adult and juvenile ducks of all species sampled. Seasonal patterns in detection and prevalence varied by parasite genus and species, age, and sex of duck hosts. The probabilities of infection for Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites were strongly positively correlated, but hematozoa infection was not correlated with IAV infection or serostatus. The probability of Haemoproteus infection was negatively related to body condition in juvenile ducks; relationships between Leucocytozoon infection and body condition varied among host species. Conclusions: We present prevalence estimates for Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, and Plasmodium infections in waterfowl at the interface of the sub-Arctic and Arctic and provide evidence for local transmission of all three parasite genera. Variation in prevalence and molecular detection of hematozoa parasites in wild ducks is influenced by seasonal timing and a number of host traits. A positive correlation in co-infection of Leucocytozoon and Haemoproteus suggests that infection probability by parasites in one or both genera is enhanced by infection with the other, or that encounter rates of hosts and genus-specific vectors are correlated. Using size-adjusted mass as an index of host condition, we did not find evidence for strong deleterious consequences of hematozoa infection in wild ducks.

Prevalence of Anaemia and Associated Factors among Children below Five Years of Age in Cape Verde, West Africa

PubMed Central

Semedo, Rosa M.L.; Santos, Marta M.A.S.; Baião, Mirian R.; Luiz, Ronir R.

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT This study estimated the prevalence of anaemia and associated factors in a probability sample of 993 children aged 6-59 months in Cape Verde, West Africa. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated from a hierarchical model for multiple analysis to assess the association between anaemia and explanatory variables. The prevalence of anaemia was 51.8% (95% CI 47.7-55.8). Children who resided within poor household conditions (OR 1.99; 95% CI 1.06-3.71) were below 24 months of age (OR 3.23; 95% CI 2.03-5.15) and recently experienced diarrhoea (OR 1.58; 95% CI 0.99-2.50) were at high risk of anaemia. Anaemia should be considered a serious public-health concern in Cape Verde, mainly for children below 24 months. Further, special consideration should be given to children who have experienced recent diarrhoea and belong to families residing in poor household conditions. PMID:25895198

Prevalence of anaemia and associated factors among children below five years of age in Cape Verde, West Africa.

PubMed

Semedo, Rosa M L; Santos, Marta M A S; Baião, Mirian R; Luiz, Ronir R; da Veiga, Gloria V

2014-12-01

This study estimated the prevalence of anaemia and associated factors in a probability sample of 993 chil- dren aged 6-59 months in Cape Verde, West Africa. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated from a hierarchical model for multiple analysis to assess the association between anaemia and explanatory variables. The prevalence of anaemia was 51.8% (95% CI 47.7-55.8). Children who resided within poor household conditions (OR 1.99; 95% CI 1.06-3.71) were below 24 months of age (OR 3.23; 95% CI 2.03-5.15) and recently experienced diarrhoea (OR 1.58; 95% CI 0.99-2.50) were at high risk of anaemia. Anaemia should be considered a serious public-health concern in Cape Verde, mainly for chil- dren below 24 months. Further, special consideration should be given to children who have experienced recent diarrhoea and belong to families residing in poor household conditions.

The Effect of Leisure-Time Physical Activity on Obesity, Diabetes, High BP and Heart Disease Among Canadians: Evidence from 2000/2001 to 2005/2006.

PubMed

Sarma, Sisira; Devlin, Rose Anne; Gilliland, Jason; Campbell, M Karen; Zaric, Gregory S

2015-12-01

Although studies have looked at the effect of physical activity on obesity and other health outcomes, the causal nature of this relationship remains unclear. We fill this gap by investigating the impact of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and work-related physical activity (WRPA) on obesity and chronic conditions in Canadians aged 18-75 using instrumental variable and recursive bivariate probit approaches. Average local temperatures surrounding the respondents' interview month are used as a novel instrument to help identify the causal relationship between LTPA and health outcomes. We find that an active level of LTPA (i.e., walking ≥1 h/day) reduces the probability of obesity by five percentage points, which increases to 11 percentage points if also combined with some WRPA. WRPA exhibits a negative effect on the probability of obesity and chronic conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting the Timing of Maturational Spurts in Skeletal Age

PubMed Central

Nahhas, Ramzi W.; Sherwood, Richard J.; Chumlea, Wm. Cameron; Towne, Bradford; Duren, Dana L.

2014-01-01

Measures of maturity provide windows into the timing and tempo of childhood growth and maturation. Delayed maturation in a single child, or systemically in a population, can result from either genetic or environmental factors. In terms of the skeleton, delayed maturation may result in short stature or indicate another underlying issue. Thus, prediction of the timing of a maturational spurt is often desirable in order to determine the likelihood that a child will catch up to their chronological age peers. Serial data from the Fels Longitudinal Study were used to predict future skeletal age conditional on current skeletal age and to predict the timing of maturational spurts. For children who were delayed relative to their chronological age peers, the like-lihood of catch-up maturation increased through the average age of onset of puberty and decreased prior to the average age of peak height velocity. For boys, the probability of an imminent maturational spurt was higher for those who were less mature. For girls aged 11 to 13 years, however, this probability was higher for those who were more mature, potentially indicating the presence of a skeletal maturation plateau between multiple spurts. The prediction model, available on the web, is most relevant to children of European ancestry living in the Midwestern US. Our model may also provide insight into the tempo of maturation for children in other populations, but must be applied with caution if those populations are known to have high burdens of environmental stressors not typical of the Midwestern US. Am J Phys Anthropol 150:68–75, 2013. PMID:23283666

The estimation of tree posterior probabilities using conditional clade probability distributions.

PubMed

Larget, Bret

2013-07-01

In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample.

An Analysis of the Ideological Work of the Discourses of "Fair Play" and Moral Education in Perpetuating Inequitable Gender Practices in PETE

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dowling, Fiona; Karhus, Svein

2011-01-01

Background: Physical education (PE) is a subject which has a long history of legitimising itself on the grounds of its contribution to pupils' social and moral welfare. It therefore seems probable that PE teacher education (PETE) might embrace recent calls for the need to re-moralise society due to the conditions of the late-modern age and not…

A model of hygiene practices and consumption patterns in the consumer phase.

PubMed

Christensen, Bjarke B; Rosenquist, Hanne; Sommer, Helle M; Nielsen, Niels L; Fagt, Sisse; Andersen, Niels L; Nørrung, Birgit

2005-02-01

A mathematical model is presented, which addresses individual hygiene practices during food preparation and consumption patterns in private homes. Further, the model links food preparers and consumers based on their relationship to household types. For different age and gender groups, the model estimates (i) the probability of ingesting a meal where precautions have not been taken to avoid the transfer of microorganisms from raw food to final meal (a risk meal), exemplified by the event that the cutting board was not washed during food preparation, and (ii) the probability of ingesting a risk meal in a private home, where chicken was the prepared food item (a chicken risk meal). Chicken was included in the model, as chickens are believed to be the major source of human exposure to the foodborne pathogen Campylobacter. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the probability of ingesting a risk meal was highest for young males (aged 18-29 years) and lowest for the elderly above 60 years of age. Children aged 0-4 years had a higher probability of ingesting a risk meal than children aged 5-17 years. This difference between age and gender groups was ascribed to the variations in the hygiene levels of food preparers. By including the probability of ingesting a chicken meal at home, simulations revealed that all age groups, except the group above 60 years of age, had approximately the same probability of ingesting a chicken risk meal, the probability of females being slightly higher than that of males. The simulated results show that the probability of ingesting a chicken risk meal at home does not only depend on the hygiene practices of the persons preparing the food, but also on the consumption patterns of consumers, and the relationship between people preparing and ingesting food. This finding supports the need of including information on consumer behavior and preparation hygiene in the consumer phase of exposure assessments.

Growth and ontogeny of the tapeworm Schistocephalus solidus in its copepod first host affects performance in its stickleback second intermediate host

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background For parasites with complex life cycles, size at transmission can impact performance in the next host, thereby coupling parasite phenotypes in the two consecutive hosts. However, a handful of studies with parasites, and numerous studies with free-living, complex-life-cycle animals, have found that larval size correlates poorly with fitness under particular conditions, implying that other traits, such as physiological or ontogenetic variation, may predict fitness more reliably. Using the tapeworm Schistocephalus solidus, we evaluated how parasite size, age, and ontogeny in the copepod first host interact to determine performance in the stickleback second host. Methods We raised infected copepods under two feeding treatments (to manipulate parasite growth), and then exposed fish to worms of two different ages (to manipulate parasite ontogeny). We assessed how growth and ontogeny in copepods affected three measures of fitness in fish: infection probability, growth rate, and energy storage. Results Our main, novel finding is that the increase in fitness (infection probability and growth in fish) with larval size and age observed in previous studies on S. solidus seems to be largely mediated by ontogenetic variation. Worms that developed rapidly (had a cercomer after 9 days in copepods) were able to infect fish at an earlier age, and they grew to larger sizes with larger energy reserves in fish. Infection probability in fish increased with larval size chiefly in young worms, when size and ontogeny are positively correlated, but not in older worms that had essentially completed their larval development in copepods. Conclusions Transmission to sticklebacks as a small, not-yet-fully developed larva has clear costs for S. solidus, but it remains unclear what prevents the evolution of faster growth and development in this species. PMID:22564512

Disentangling age–gender interactions associated with risks of fatal and non-fatal road traffic injuries in the Sultanate of Oman

PubMed Central

Al-Aamri, Amira K; Padmadas, Sabu S; Zhang, Li-Chun; Al-Maniri, Abdullah A

2017-01-01

Objective Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years lost in Oman, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. Injury prevention strategies often overlook the interaction of individual and behavioural risk factors in assessing the severity of RTI outcomes. We conducted a systematic investigation of the underlying interactive effects of age and gender on the severity of fatal and non-fatal RTI outcomes in the Sultanate of Oman. Methods We used the Royal Oman Police national database of road traffic crashes for the period 2010–2014. Our study was based on 35 785 registered incidents: of these, 10.2% fatal injuries, 6.2% serious, 27.3% moderate, 37.3% mild injuries and 19% only vehicle damage but no human injuries. We applied a generalised ordered logit regression to estimate the effect of age and gender on RTI severity, controlling for risk behaviours, personal characteristics, vehicle, road, traffic, environment conditions and geographical location. Results The most dominant group at risk of all types of RTIs was young male drivers. The probability of severe incapacitating injuries was the highest for drivers aged 25–29 (26.6%) years, whereas the probability of fatal injuries was the highest for those aged 20–24 (26.9%) years. Analysis of three-way interactions of age, gender and causes of crash show that overspeeding was the primary cause of different types of RTIs. In particular, the probability of fatal injuries among male drivers attributed to overspeeding ranged from 3%–6% for those aged 35 years and above to 13.4% and 17.7% for those aged 25–29 years and 20–24 years, respectively. Conclusions The high burden of severe and fatal RTIs in Oman was primarily attributed to overspeed driving behaviour of young male drivers in the 20–29 years age range. Our findings highlight the critical need for designing early gender-sensitive road safety interventions targeting young male and female drivers. PMID:29018585

Conditional survival of pediatric, adolescent, and young adult soft tissue sarcoma and bone tumor patients.

PubMed

Ou, Judy Y; Spraker-Perlman, Holly; Dietz, Andrew C; Smits-Seemann, Rochelle R; Kaul, Sapna; Kirchhoff, Anne C

2017-10-01

Survival estimates for soft tissue sarcomas (STS) and malignant bone tumors (BT) diagnosed in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult patients are not easily available. We present survival estimates based on a patient having survived a defined period of time (conditional survival). Conditional survival estimates for the short-term were calculated for patients from diagnosis to the first five years after diagnosis and for patients surviving in the long-term (up to 20 years after diagnosis). We identified 703 patients who were diagnosed with a STS or BT at age ≤25 years from January 1, 1986 to December 31, 2012 at a large pediatric oncology center in Salt Lake City, Utah, United States. We obtained cancer type, age at diagnosis, primary site, and demographic data from medical records, and vital status through the National Death Index. Cancer stage was available for a subset of the cohort through the Utah Cancer Registry. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age and sex, calculated survival estimates for all analyses. Short-term survival improves over time for both sarcomas. Short-term survival for STS from diagnosis (Year 0) did not differ by sex, but short-term survival starting from 1-year post diagnosis was significantly worse for male patients (Survival probability 1-year post-diagnosis [SP1]:77% [95% CI:71-83]) than female patients (SP1:86% [81-92]). Survival for patients who were diagnosed at age ≤10 years (Survival probability at diagnosis [SP0]:85% [79-91]) compared to diagnosis at ages 16-25 years (SP0:67% [59-75]) was significantly better at all time-points from diagnosis to 5-years post-diagnosis. Survival for axial sites (SP0:69% [63-75]) compared to extremities (SP0:84% [79-90]) was significantly worse from diagnosis to 1-year post-diagnosis. Survival for axial BT (SP0: 64% [54-74] was significantly worse than BT in the extremities (SP0:73% [68-79]) from diagnosis to 3-years post diagnosis. Relapsed patients of both sarcoma types had significantly worse short-term survival than non-relapsed patients. Long-term survival for STS in this cohort is 65% at diagnosis, and improves to 86% 5-years post-diagnosis. BT survival improves from 51% at diagnosis to 78% at 5-years post-diagnosis. Conditional survival for short- and long-term STS and BT improve as time from diagnosis increases. Short-term survival was significantly affected by patients' sex, age at diagnosis, cancer site, and relapse status. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Effect of Earth magnetic field on circadian rhythm of total antioxidant capacity of human saliva in the North].

PubMed

Borisenkov, M F

2007-01-01

In the inhabitants of the North during increase of geomagnetic activity and during magnetic calm the decrease of amplitude of circadian rhythm of total antioxidant capacity of saliva is observed. The most favorable conditions to display the circadian rhythm are observed at Kp from 0,5 up to 2. The long residing in the North is connected to influence of irregularly varying geomagnetic activity causing disturbance of function of circadian and antioxidant systems that, probably, is one of the reasons of acceleration of process of aging at northerner and of higher risk of occurrence in them the age associated diseases.

Option volatility and the acceleration Lagrangian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Cao, Yang

2014-01-01

This paper develops a volatility formula for option on an asset from an acceleration Lagrangian model and the formula is calibrated with market data. The Black-Scholes model is a simpler case that has a velocity dependent Lagrangian. The acceleration Lagrangian is defined, and the classical solution of the system in Euclidean time is solved by choosing proper boundary conditions. The conditional probability distribution of final position given the initial position is obtained from the transition amplitude. The volatility is the standard deviation of the conditional probability distribution. Using the conditional probability and the path integral method, the martingale condition is applied, and one of the parameters in the Lagrangian is fixed. The call option price is obtained using the conditional probability and the path integral method.

Holocene Vegetation Changes in Eastern Kamchatka Based on Pollen and Macrofossil Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dirksen, V.

2004-12-01

Little is known about the Quaternary climate and vegetation history of Kamchatka. Only a few previous studies have provided paleoenvironmental information for this area, but these studies have poor age control and are inconsistent To reconstruct paleoclimate and both regional and local vegetation history we are analyzing continuous, high-resolution pollen and macrofossil records from peats on Kamchatka. Thin, well-dated ash layers in these peats provide excellent age control; sections sampled thus far range in age back to 12,000 years. Herein we report results from one example, the Uka peat section (57.8oN 162.2oE; about 10 m a.s.l.). This section is located on a morainal terrace close to a small lake. The basal section is lacustrine clay with a few spores pointing to scarce vegetation under cold conditions, probably latest Pleistocene. This clay is replaced upward by limnic peat, probably early Holocene (pollen zone 1). This zone is characterized by dominance of shrub alder and birch, herbs, and ferns. The highest value (in the whole section) of sage and the absence of tree pollen suggest a treeless landscape and thin vegetation cover under still cold conditions, while increase in local aquatic pollen indicates lake filling and shrinking. In Zone 2 (ca. 8000-4000 BP), mire vegetation shows successive development of eutrophic fen including three pulses of sphagnum followed by sedge peaks. Pollen concentration is very low, probably indicating high deposition rates. A warming trend is suggested by the appearance ca. 5600 BP of tree birch, increasing to the end of zone 2, while alder strongly decreases. The most pronounced changes in both regional and local vegetation are found ca. 3800 BP, when tree birch pollen reaches its highest value and a few long-transported spruce pollen grains appear. The dominant (eutrophic) sedge is suddenly replaced by a more oligotrophic one. Such local components as grasses, shrub birch and willow increase, and total pollen concentration dramatically increases. All these features suggest drier conditions in zone 3 (3800-1200 BP), however it should be supported by further studies. Zone 4 (1200 BP to present) shows development of an oligotrophic peat bog indicated by high values of heath; the establishment of shrub pine is signaled by a sharp increase in its pollen.

The demand for preventive and restorative dental services.

PubMed

Meyerhoefer, Chad D; Zuvekas, Samuel H; Manski, Richard

2014-01-01

Chronic tooth decay is the most common chronic condition in the United States among children ages 5-17 and also affects a large percentage of adults. Oral health conditions are preventable, but less than half of the US population uses dental services annually. We seek to examine the extent to which limited dental coverage and high out-of-pocket costs reduce dental service use by the nonelderly privately insured and uninsured. Using data from the 2001-2006 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and an American Dental Association survey of dental procedure prices, we jointly estimate the probability of using preventive and both basic and major restorative services through a correlated random effects specification that controls for endogeneity. We found that dental coverage increased the probability of preventive care use by 19% and the use of restorative services 11% to 16%. Both conditional and unconditional on dental coverage, the use of dental services was not sensitive to out-of-pocket costs. We conclude that dental coverage is an important determinant of preventive dental service use, but other nonprice factors related to consumer preferences, especially education, are equal if not stronger determinants. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bivariate normal, conditional and rectangular probabilities: A computer program with applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swaroop, R.; Brownlow, J. D.; Ashwworth, G. R.; Winter, W. R.

1980-01-01

Some results for the bivariate normal distribution analysis are presented. Computer programs for conditional normal probabilities, marginal probabilities, as well as joint probabilities for rectangular regions are given: routines for computing fractile points and distribution functions are also presented. Some examples from a closed circuit television experiment are included.

The Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Adults' Word Learning in Noisy Conditions

PubMed Central

Storkel, Holly L.; Lee, Jaehoon; Cox, Casey

2016-01-01

Purpose Noisy conditions make auditory processing difficult. This study explores whether noisy conditions influence the effects of phonotactic probability (the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence) and neighborhood density (phonological similarity among words) on adults' word learning. Method Fifty-eight adults learned nonwords varying in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in either an unfavorable (0-dB signal-to-noise ratio [SNR]) or a favorable (+8-dB SNR) listening condition. Word learning was assessed using a picture naming task by scoring the proportion of phonemes named correctly. Results The unfavorable 0-dB SNR condition showed a significant interaction between phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in the absence of main effects. In particular, adults learned more words when phonotactic probability and neighborhood density were both low or both high. The +8-dB SNR condition did not show this interaction. These results are inconsistent with those from a prior adult word learning study conducted under quiet listening conditions that showed main effects of word characteristics. Conclusions As the listening condition worsens, adult word learning benefits from a convergence of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density. Clinical implications are discussed for potential populations who experience difficulty with auditory perception or processing, making them more vulnerable to noise. PMID:27788276

The Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Adults' Word Learning in Noisy Conditions.

PubMed

Han, Min Kyung; Storkel, Holly L; Lee, Jaehoon; Cox, Casey

2016-11-01

Noisy conditions make auditory processing difficult. This study explores whether noisy conditions influence the effects of phonotactic probability (the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence) and neighborhood density (phonological similarity among words) on adults' word learning. Fifty-eight adults learned nonwords varying in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in either an unfavorable (0-dB signal-to-noise ratio [SNR]) or a favorable (+8-dB SNR) listening condition. Word learning was assessed using a picture naming task by scoring the proportion of phonemes named correctly. The unfavorable 0-dB SNR condition showed a significant interaction between phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in the absence of main effects. In particular, adults learned more words when phonotactic probability and neighborhood density were both low or both high. The +8-dB SNR condition did not show this interaction. These results are inconsistent with those from a prior adult word learning study conducted under quiet listening conditions that showed main effects of word characteristics. As the listening condition worsens, adult word learning benefits from a convergence of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density. Clinical implications are discussed for potential populations who experience difficulty with auditory perception or processing, making them more vulnerable to noise.

How FSH and AMH reflect probabilities of oocyte numbers in poor prognosis patients with small oocyte yields.

PubMed

Gleicher, Norbert; Darmon, Sarah K; Kushnir, Vitaly A; Weghofer, Andrea; Wang, Qi; Zhang, Lin; Albertini, David F; Barad, David H

2016-11-01

In poor prognosis patients undergoing in vitro fertilization, advance determinations of likely oocyte yields are especially important since oocyte numbers to large degree determine in vitro fertilization cycle outcomes. Based on baseline follicle stimulating hormone and anti-müllerian hormone levels at time of initial presentation, we here, therefore, determined at all ages the probabilities of obtaining 1-≥5 oocytes in a retrospective analysis of 1554 consecutive patients undergoing in vitro fertilization cycles at an academically affiliated private fertility center. At lowest levels (≤2.5 mIU/mL), Follicle stimulating hormone at all ages was highly predictable for ≥1 oocyte (88-96 %). Probabilities declined and diverged between ages with increasing follicle stimulating hormone, though narrowed again at high follicle stimulating hormone. Anti-Müllerian hormone demonstrated at higher levels (2.5-≥5 ng/ml) at all ages almost perfect probabilities (99-100 %). With declining anti-Müllerian hormone, age categories, however, increasingly diverged, though to lesser degree than follicle stimulating hormone. In poor prognosis patients, follicle stimulating hormone and anti-Müllerian hormone, thus, offer at different ages very specific probabilities for retrieval of 1-≥5 oocytes. Since oocyte numbers are associated with embryo numbers, and numbers of transferable embryos with live birth rates, here presented probability tables should facilitate improved prognostication of poor prognosis patients. Discrepancies in here reported probabilities between follicle stimulating hormone and anti-müllerian hormone also further define follicle stimulating hormone and anti-müllerian hormone in their respective abilities to represent functional ovarian reserve at different ages.

76 FR 74699 - Allocation of Assets in Single-Employer Plans; Valuation of Benefits and Assets; Expected...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-01

... a low, medium, or high probability of retiring early. The determination is based on the year a... the expected retirement age after the probability of early retirement has been determined using Table I. These tables establish, by probability category, the expected retirement age based on both the...

75 FR 74622 - Allocation of Assets in Single-Employer Plans; Valuation of Benefits and Assets; Expected...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-01

..., medium, or high probability of retiring early. The determination is based on the year a participant would... the expected retirement age after the probability of early retirement has been determined using Table I. These tables establish, by probability category, the expected retirement age based on both the...

AGE-SPECIFIC PROBABILITY OF LIVE-BIRTH WITH OOCYTE CRYOPRESERVATION: AN INDIVIDUAL PATIENT DATA META-ANALYSIS

PubMed Central

CIL, AYLIN PELIN; BANG, HEEJUNG; OKTAY, KUTLUK

2013-01-01

Objective To estimate age-specific probabilities of live-birth with oocyte cryopreservation in non-donor (ND) egg cycles. Design Individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis. Setting Assisted reproduction centers. Patients Infertile patients undergoing ND mature oocyte cryopreservation. Interventions PubMed was searched for the clinical studies on oocyte cryopreservation from January 1996 through July 2011. Randomized and non-randomized studies that used ND frozen-thawed mature oocytes with pregnancy outcomes were included. Authors of eligible studies were contacted to obtain IPD. Main outcome measures Live-birth probabilities based on age, cryopreservation method, and the number of oocytes thawed, injected, or embryos transferred. Results Original data from 10 studies including 2265 cycles from 1805 patients were obtained. Live-birth success rates declined with age regardless of the freezing technique. Despite this age-induced compromise, live-births continued to occur as late as to the ages of 42 and 44 with slowly-frozen (SF) and vitrified (VF) oocytes, respectively. Estimated probabilities of live-birth for VF oocytes were higher than those for SF. Conclusions The live-birth probabilities we calculated would enable more accurate counseling and informed decision of infertile women who consider oocyte cryopreservation. Given the success probabilities, we suggest that policy-makers should consider oocyte freezing as an integral part of prevention and treatment of infertility. PMID:23706339

Predictors for the initiation of a basal supported oral therapy (BOT) in type 2 diabetic patients under real-life conditions in Germany.

PubMed

Kostev, Karel; Dippel, Franz-Werner

2012-12-01

To assess the predictors for the initiation of a basal supported oral therapy (BOT) in type 2 diabetic patients under real-life conditions in Germany. A historical cohort study based on representative German real life data (IMS(®) Disease Analyzer) was performed. The study included patients with type 2 diabetes who started an oral antidiabetic drug (OAD) treatment between 01/1995 and 12/2011. Patients with consecutive treatment data for at least 12 months before the initiation of an OAD treatment were eligible for the analysis. The time-dependent rate of patients starting an insulin therapy with a long-acting insulin was calculated by use of the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied to identify associated factors. The study included 194,967 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus being on OAD therapy. 24,964 patients were switched to BOT during the observational period. The probability of switching to insulin therapy was associated with three main predictors such as (1) poor metabolic control, (2) midlife age and (3) number and type of the OAD before insulinization. The variation of the HbA1c threshold to HbA1c≥7.5 leads to comparable outcomes with significant HR. The highest probability of initiating a basal supported oral therapy (BOT) under real life conditions was found for patients with poor metabolic control, midlife age and pre-treatment with specific OADs such as SU, GLI or AGI before initiation of insulin therapy. Copyright © 2012 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probability and predictors of relapse to smoking: Results of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC)

PubMed Central

García-Rodríguez, Olaya; Secades-Villa, Roberto; Flórez-Salamanca, Ludwing; Okuda, Mayumi; Liu, Shang-Min; Blanco, Carlos

2013-01-01

Background The goal of this study was to estimate rates of relapse to smoking in the community and to identify predictors of relapse. Methods Data were drawn from the Waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the probability of relapse at Wave 2 among individuals who were abstinent at Wave 1 given length of abstinence as well as the presence of several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and substance use-related variables at Wave 1. Results The risk for relapse among individuals who had been abstinent for 12 months or less at the baseline assessment was above 50%. Among individuals who had been abstinent for over a year, risk of relapse decreased hyperbolically as a function of time, and stabilized around 10% after 30 years of abstinence. Although several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and tobacco-related variables predicted relapse in univariate analyses, only younger age at cessation and shorter duration of abstinence independently predicted risk of relapse in multivariable analyses. Conclusions The first year after a quit attempt constitutes the period of highest risk for relapse. Although the risk for relapse decreases over time, it never fully disappears. Furthermore, younger age at smoking cessation also increases the risk for relapse. This information may help develop more targeted and effective relapse prevention programs. PMID:23570817

Aging ballistic Lévy walks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magdziarz, Marcin; Zorawik, Tomasz

2017-02-01

Aging can be observed for numerous physical systems. In such systems statistical properties [like probability distribution, mean square displacement (MSD), first-passage time] depend on a time span ta between the initialization and the beginning of observations. In this paper we study aging properties of ballistic Lévy walks and two closely related jump models: wait-first and jump-first. We calculate explicitly their probability distributions and MSDs. It turns out that despite similarities these models react very differently to the delay ta. Aging weakly affects the shape of probability density function and MSD of standard Lévy walks. For the jump models the shape of the probability density function is changed drastically. Moreover for the wait-first jump model we observe a different behavior of MSD when ta≪t and ta≫t .

Tests for senescent decline in annual survival probabilities of common pochards, Aythya ferina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Blums, P.

1997-01-01

Senescent decline in survival probabilities of animals is a topic about which much has been written but little is known. Here, we present formal tests of senescence hypotheses, using 1373 recaptures from 8877 duckling (age 0) and 504 yearling Common Pochards (Aythya ferina) banded at a Latvian study site, 1975-1992. The tests are based on capture-recapture models that explicitly incorporate sampling probabilities that, themselves, may exhibit timeand age-specific variation. The tests provided no evidence of senescent decline in survival probabilities for this species. Power of the most useful test was low for gradual declines in annual survival probability with age, but good for steeper declines. We recommend use of this type of capture-recapture modeling and analysis for other investigations of senescence in animal survival rates.

Beginning Bayes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erickson, Tim

2017-01-01

Understanding a Bayesian perspective demands comfort with conditional probability and with probabilities that appear to change as we acquire additional information. This paper suggests a simple context in conditional probability that helps develop the understanding students would need for a successful introduction to Bayesian reasoning.

77 FR 71321 - Allocation of Assets in Single-Employer Plans; Valuation of Benefits and Assets; Expected...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-30

... participant has a low, medium, or high probability of retiring early. The determination is based on the year a... the expected retirement age after the probability of early retirement has been determined using Table I. These tables establish, by probability category, the expected retirement age based on both the...

78 FR 72018 - Allocation of Assets in Single-Employer Plans; Valuation of Benefits and Assets; Expected...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-02

... has a low, medium, or high probability of retiring early. The determination is based on the year a... the expected retirement age after the probability of early retirement has been determined using Table I. These tables establish, by probability category, the expected retirement age based on both the...

Know the risk, take the win: how executive functions and probability processing influence advantageous decision making under risk conditions.

PubMed

Brand, Matthias; Schiebener, Johannes; Pertl, Marie-Theres; Delazer, Margarete

2014-01-01

Recent models on decision making under risk conditions have suggested that numerical abilities are important ingredients of advantageous decision-making performance, but empirical evidence is still limited. The results of our first study show that logical reasoning and basic mental calculation capacities predict ratio processing and that ratio processing predicts decision making under risk. In the second study, logical reasoning together with executive functions predicted probability processing (numeracy and probability knowledge), and probability processing predicted decision making under risk. These findings suggest that increasing an individual's understanding of ratios and probabilities should lead to more advantageous decisions under risk conditions.

Incidence of Lower Respiratory Tract Infections and Atopic Conditions in Boys and Young Male Adults: Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre Annual Report 2015-2016

PubMed Central

Correa, Ana; Pebody, Richard; Yonova, Ivelina; Smith, Gillian; Byford, Rachel; Pathirannehelage, Sameera Rankiri; McGee, Christopher; Elliot, Alex J; Hriskova, Mariya; Ferreira, Filipa IM; Rafi, Imran; Jones, Simon

2018-01-01

Background The Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre comprises more than 150 general practices, with a combined population of more than 1.5 million, contributing to UK and European public health surveillance and research. Objective The aim of this paper was to report gender differences in the presentation of infectious and respiratory conditions in children and young adults. Methods Disease incidence data were used to test the hypothesis that boys up to puberty present more with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and asthma. Incidence rates were reported for infectious conditions in children and young adults by gender. We controlled for ethnicity, deprivation, and consultation rates. We report odds ratios (OR) with 95% CI, P values, and probability of presenting. Results Boys presented more with LRTI, largely due to acute bronchitis. The OR of males consulting was greater across the youngest 3 age bands (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.35-1.87; OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.05-1.21; OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.09-1.32). Allergic rhinitis and asthma had a higher OR of presenting in boys aged 5 to 14 years (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.37-1.68; OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.17-1.48). Upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) and urinary tract infection (UTI) had lower odds of presenting in boys, especially those older than 15 years. The probability of presenting showed different patterns for LRTI, URTI, and atopic conditions. Conclusions Boys younger than 15 years have greater odds of presenting with LRTI and atopic conditions, whereas girls may present more with URTI and UTI. These differences may provide insights into disease mechanisms and for health service planning. PMID:29712621

A hybrid machine learning model to estimate nitrate contamination of production zone groundwater in the Central Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ransom, K.; Nolan, B. T.; Faunt, C. C.; Bell, A.; Gronberg, J.; Traum, J.; Wheeler, D. C.; Rosecrans, C.; Belitz, K.; Eberts, S.; Harter, T.

2016-12-01

A hybrid, non-linear, machine learning statistical model was developed within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface in the Central Valley, California. A database of 213 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and county scale nitrogen mass balance, historical and current landuse, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6,000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The machine learning method, gradient boosting machine (GBM) was used to screen predictor variables and rank them in order of importance in relation to the groundwater nitrate measurements. The top five most important predictor variables included oxidation/reduction characteristics, historical field scale nitrogen mass balance, climate, and depth to 60 year old water. Twenty-two variables were selected for the final model and final model errors for log-transformed hold-out data were R squared of 0.45 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.124. Modeled mean groundwater age was tested separately for error improvement in the model and when included decreased model RMSE by 0.5% compared to the same model without age and by 0.20% compared to the model with all 213 variables. 1D and 2D partial plots were examined to determine how variables behave individually and interact in the model. Some variables behaved as expected: log nitrate decreased with increasing probability of anoxic conditions and depth to 60 year old water, generally decreased with increasing natural landuse surrounding wells and increasing mean groundwater age, generally increased with increased minimum depth to high water table and with increased base flow index value. Other variables exhibited much more erratic or noisy behavior in the model making them more difficult to interpret but highlighting the usefulness of the non-linear machine learning method. 2D interaction plots show probability of anoxic groundwater conditions largely control estimated nitrate concentrations compared to the other predictors.

Investigating the poverty-obesity paradox in Europe.

PubMed

Salmasi, Luca; Celidoni, Martina

2017-08-01

This paper investigates the effect of income- and wealth-based poverty on the probability of being obese for the elderly in Europe by analysing data drawn from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement (SHARE) and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). We use early-life economic conditions and regional circumstances as instruments for poverty later in life to account for endogeneity issues. After controlling for a large set of covariates at the individual, household, regional and country level, the results show that poverty significantly increases the probability of being obese and the Body Mass Index (BMI), for men and women. The results show that, accounting for endogeneity with a bivariate probit model, poor individuals are from 10 to 20% points more likely to be obese than non-poor individuals. The effect on BMI ranges from 0.295 points (2.39 kg) to 0.395 points (2.75 kg). These results are robust to a series of checks and suggest that anti-poverty interventions might have positive side effects in terms of reducing food-related health inequalities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Age and pedestrian injury severity in motor-vehicle crashes: a heteroskedastic logit analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Joon-Ki; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F; Shankar, Venkataraman N; Kim, Sungyop

2008-09-01

This research explores the injury severity of pedestrians in motor-vehicle crashes. It is hypothesized that the variance of unobserved pedestrian characteristics increases with age. In response, a heteroskedastic generalized extreme value model is used. The analysis links explanatory factors with four injury outcomes: fatal, incapacitating, non-incapacitating, and possible or no injury. Police-reported crash data between 1997 and 2000 from North Carolina, USA, are used. The results show that pedestrian age induces heteroskedasticity which affects the probability of fatal injury. The effect grows more pronounced with increasing age past 65. The heteroskedastic model provides a better fit than the multinomial logit model. Notable factors increasing the probability of fatal pedestrian injury: increasing pedestrian age, male driver, intoxicated driver (2.7 times greater probability of fatality), traffic sign, commercial area, darkness with or without streetlights (2-4 times greater probability of fatality), sport-utility vehicle, truck, freeway, two-way divided roadway, speeding-involved, off roadway, motorist turning or backing, both driver and pedestrian at fault, and pedestrian only at fault. Conversely, the probability of a fatal injury decreased: with increasing driver age, during the PM traffic peak, with traffic signal control, in inclement weather, on a curved roadway, at a crosswalk, and when walking along roadway.

Repetition blindness and homophone blindness in young and older adults.

PubMed

Tyrrell, Caitlin J; James, Lori E; Noble, Paula M

2016-11-01

We tested age effects on repetition blindness (RB), defined as the reduced probability of reporting a target word following presentation of the same word in a rapidly presented list. We also tested age effects on homophone blindness (HB), in which the first word is a homophone of the target word rather than a repeated word. Thirty young and 28 older adults viewed rapidly presented lists of words containing repeated, homophone, or unrepeated word pairs and reported all of the words immediately after each list. Older adults exhibited a greater degree of RB and HB than young adults using a conditional scoring method that provides certainty that blindness has occurred. The existence of RB and HB for both age groups, and increased blindness for older compared to young adults, supports predictions of a binding theory that has successfully accounted for a wide range of phenomena in cognitive aging.

An Inverse Problem for a Class of Conditional Probability Measure-Dependent Evolution Equations

PubMed Central

Mirzaev, Inom; Byrne, Erin C.; Bortz, David M.

2016-01-01

We investigate the inverse problem of identifying a conditional probability measure in measure-dependent evolution equations arising in size-structured population modeling. We formulate the inverse problem as a least squares problem for the probability measure estimation. Using the Prohorov metric framework, we prove existence and consistency of the least squares estimates and outline a discretization scheme for approximating a conditional probability measure. For this scheme, we prove general method stability. The work is motivated by Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models of flocculation for which the shape of the post-fragmentation conditional probability measure greatly impacts the solution dynamics. To illustrate our methodology, we apply the theory to a particular PDE model that arises in the study of population dynamics for flocculating bacterial aggregates in suspension, and provide numerical evidence for the utility of the approach. PMID:28316360

Sri Lankan FRAX model and country-specific intervention thresholds.

PubMed

Lekamwasam, Sarath

2013-01-01

There is a wide variation in fracture probabilities estimated by Asian FRAX models, although the outputs of South Asian models are concordant. Clinicians can choose either fixed or age-specific intervention thresholds when making treatment decisions in postmenopausal women. Cost-effectiveness of such approach, however, needs to be addressed. This study examined suitable fracture probability intervention thresholds (ITs) for Sri Lanka, based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model. Fracture probabilities were estimated using all Asian FRAX models for a postmenopausal woman of BMI 25 kg/m² and has no clinical risk factors apart from a fragility fracture, and they were compared. Age-specific ITs were estimated based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model using the method followed by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group in the UK. Using the age-specific ITs as the reference standard, suitable fixed ITs were also estimated. Fracture probabilities estimated by different Asian FRAX models varied widely. Japanese and Taiwan models showed higher fracture probabilities while Chinese, Philippine, and Indonesian models gave lower fracture probabilities. Output of remaining FRAX models were generally similar. Age-specific ITs of major osteoporotic fracture probabilities (MOFP) based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model varied from 2.6 to 18% between 50 and 90 years. ITs of hip fracture probabilities (HFP) varied from 0.4 to 6.5% between 50 and 90 years. In finding fixed ITs, MOFP of 11% and HFP of 3.5% gave the lowest misclassification and highest agreement. Sri Lankan FRAX model behaves similar to other Asian FRAX models such as Indian, Singapore-Indian, Thai, and South Korean. Clinicians may use either the fixed or age-specific ITs in making therapeutic decisions in postmenopausal women. The economical aspects of such decisions, however, need to be considered.

Bayesian pretest probability estimation for primary malignant bone tumors based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program (SEER) database.

PubMed

Benndorf, Matthias; Neubauer, Jakob; Langer, Mathias; Kotter, Elmar

2017-03-01

In the diagnostic process of primary bone tumors, patient age, tumor localization and to a lesser extent sex affect the differential diagnosis. We therefore aim to develop a pretest probability calculator for primary malignant bone tumors based on population data taking these variables into account. We access the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute, 2015 release) database and analyze data of all primary malignant bone tumors diagnosed between 1973 and 2012. We record age at diagnosis, tumor localization according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-O-3) and sex. We take relative probability of the single tumor entity as a surrogate parameter for unadjusted pretest probability. We build a probabilistic (naïve Bayes) classifier to calculate pretest probabilities adjusted for age, tumor localization and sex. We analyze data from 12,931 patients (647 chondroblastic osteosarcomas, 3659 chondrosarcomas, 1080 chordomas, 185 dedifferentiated chondrosarcomas, 2006 Ewing's sarcomas, 281 fibroblastic osteosarcomas, 129 fibrosarcomas, 291 fibrous malignant histiocytomas, 289 malignant giant cell tumors, 238 myxoid chondrosarcomas, 3730 osteosarcomas, 252 parosteal osteosarcomas, 144 telangiectatic osteosarcomas). We make our probability calculator accessible at http://ebm-radiology.com/bayesbone/index.html . We provide exhaustive tables for age and localization data. Results from tenfold cross-validation show that in 79.8 % of cases the pretest probability is correctly raised. Our approach employs population data to calculate relative pretest probabilities for primary malignant bone tumors. The calculator is not diagnostic in nature. However, resulting probabilities might serve as an initial evaluation of probabilities of tumors on the differential diagnosis list.

Predictability of Sleep in Patients with Insomnia

PubMed Central

Vallières, Annie; Ivers, Hans; Beaulieu-Bonneau, Simon; Morin, Charles M.

2011-01-01

Study Objectives: To evaluate whether the night-to-night variability in insomnia follows specific predictable patterns and to characterize sleep patterns using objective sleep and clinical variables. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: University-affiliated sleep disorders center. Participants: 146 participants suffering from chronic and primary insomnia. Measurements and Results: Daily sleep diaries were completed for an average of 48 days and self-reported questionnaires once. Three nights were spent in the sleep laboratory for polysomnographic (PSG) assessment. Sleep efficiency, sleep onset latency, wake after sleep onset, and total sleep time were derived from sleep diaries and PSG. Time-series diary data were used to compute conditional probabilities of having an insomnia night after 1, 2, or 3 consecutive insomnia night(s). Conditional probabilities were submitted to a k-means cluster analysis. A 3-cluster solution was retained. One cluster included 38 participants exhibiting an unpredictable insomnia pattern. Another included 30 participants with a low and decreasing probability to have an insomnia night. The last cluster included 49 participants exhibiting a high probability to have insomnia every night. Clusters differed on age, insomnia severity, and mental fatigue, and on subjective sleep variables, but not on PSG sleep variables. Conclusion: These findings replicate our previous study and provide additional evidence that unpredictability is a less prevalent feature of insomnia than suggested previously in the literature. The presence of the 3 clusters is discussed in term of sleep perception and sleep homeostasis dysregulation. Citation: Vallières A; Ivers H; Beaulieu-Bonneau S; Morin CM. Predictability of sleep in patients with insomnia. SLEEP 2011;34(5):609-617. PMID:21532954

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Incorporation of real-time component information using equipment condition assessment (ECA) through the developmentof enhanced risk monitors (ERM) for active components in advanced reactor (AR) and advanced small modular reactor (SMR) designs. We incorporate time-dependent failure probabilities from prognostic health management (PHM) systems to dynamically update the risk metric of interest. This information is used to augment data used for supervisory control and plant-wide coordination of multiple modules by providing the incremental risk incurred due to aging and demands placed on components that support mission requirements.

Menstrual patterns, fertility and main pregnancy outcomes after allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Chiodi, Sandra; Spinelli, Simonetta; Bruzzi, Paolo; Anserini, Paola; Di Grazia, Carmen; Bacigalupo, Andrea

2016-08-01

Two-hundred and sixty-nine females aged ≤42 and undergoing an allogeneic stem cell transplant were retrospectively studied to assess the effect of age, conditioning regimen and chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) on resumption of stable menstrual cyclicity. Overall, a stable menstrual cyclicity was observed in 22% of cases. The cumulative probability of menses resumption was significantly age and conditioning regimen related. A statistically significant inverse correlation between cGVHD severity and menses resumption was observed only in univariate analysis. In patients with residual ovarian function, infertility was found in 43% and early menopause in 45%. An increased incidence of prematurity and low birth weight (LBW) was observed among the single spontaneous pregnancies. Follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) and 17 beta-oestradiol levels were found to be inadequate to detect both early signs of menses resumption and menstrual stability. Our study confirms the crucial role of full dose total body irradiation (TBI) and age on menses recovery and fertility after haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). The impact of severe cGVHD remains unclear.

Prevalence of Untreated Surgical Conditions in Rural Rwanda: A Population-Based Cross-sectional Study in Burera District.

PubMed

Maine, Rebecca G; Linden, Allison F; Riviello, Robert; Kamanzi, Emmanuel; Mody, Gita N; Ntakiyiruta, Georges; Kansayisa, Grace; Ntaganda, Edmond; Niyonkuru, Francine; Mubiligi, Joel M; Mpunga, Tharcisse; Meara, John G; Hedt-Gauthier, Bethany L

2017-12-20

In low- and middle-income countries, community-level surgical epidemiology is largely undefined. Accurate community-level surgical epidemiology is necessary for surgical health systems planning. To determine the prevalence of surgical conditions in Burera District, Northern Province, Rwanda. A cross-sectional study with a 2-stage cluster sample design (at village and household level) was carried out in Burera District in March and May 2012. A team of surgeons randomly sampled 30 villages with probability proportionate to village population size, then sampled 23 households within each village. All available household members were examined. The presence of 10 index surgical conditions (injuries/wounds, hernias/hydroceles, breast masses, neck masses, obstetric fistulas, undescended testes, hypospadias, hydrocephalus, cleft lip/palate, and clubfoot) was determined by physical examination. Prevalence was estimated overall and for each condition. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with surgical conditions, accounting for the complex survey design. Of the 2165 examined individuals, 1215 (56.2%) were female. The prevalence of any surgical condition among all examined individuals was 12% (95% CI, 9.2-14.9%). Half of conditions were hernias/hydroceles (49.6%), and 44% were injuries/wounds. In multivariable analysis, children 5 years or younger had twice the odds of having a surgical condition compared with married individuals 21 to 35 years of age (reference group) (odds ratio [OR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.26-4.04; P = .01). The oldest group, people older than 50 years, also had twice the odds of having a surgical condition compared with the reference group (married, aged >50 years: OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.28-4.23; P = .01; unmarried, aged >50 years: OR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.02-5.52; P = .06). Unmarried individuals 21 to 35 years of age and unmarried individuals aged 36 to 50 years had higher odds of a surgical condition compared with the reference group (aged 21-35 years: OR, 1.68; 95% CI, 0.74-3.82; P = .22; aged 36-50 years: OR, 3.35; 95% CI, 1.29-9.11; P = .02). There was no statistical difference in odds by sex, wealth, education, or travel time to the nearest hospital. The prevalence of surgically treatable conditions in northern Rwanda was considerably higher than previously estimated modeling and surveys in comparable low- and middle-income countries. This surgical backlog must be addressed in health system plans to increase surgical infrastructure and workforce in rural Africa.

Effects of reduced cost-sharing on children's health: Evidence from Japan.

PubMed

Takaku, Reo

2016-02-01

Although childhood health status is widely recognized as an important determinant for future achievement and health, there are few studies on the impact of patient cost-sharing on children's health. This paper investigates whether reduced cost-sharing leads to an improvement of health status among preschool and school-age children in Japan, exploiting regional disparities in expansions of municipality-level subsidy programs for out-of-pocket expenditure. With the eligibility for this subsidy program, known as the Medical Subsidy for Children and Infants (MSCI), the coinsurance rate generally decreases from 30% or 20% to zero for outpatient health care services and drug prescriptions. In order to uncover the impact of this program, I conducted an original survey of all municipalities in Japan to understand the time-series evolution of the eligible age for the MSCI in October 2013 (weighted response rate = 75%), and the probability of being eligible for the MSCI was then calculated by the age, prefecture of residence, and year. These probabilities were matched to children's health data from the Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions from 1995 to 2010. The results show that eligibility for the MSCI improves subjective measures of health status among preschool children (n = 115,019). However, I find no such improvement among school-age children (n = 133,855). In addition, MSCI eligibility does not reduce hospitalization among either preschool or school-age children. Taken together, this study finds no discernible effects on health among school-age children, suggesting recent rapid expansions of the MSCI for this age group have not been associated with the improvement of health status. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Updating: Learning versus Supposing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhao, Jiaying; Crupi, Vincenzo; Tentori, Katya; Fitelson, Branden; Osherson, Daniel

2012-01-01

Bayesian orthodoxy posits a tight relationship between conditional probability and updating. Namely, the probability of an event "A" after learning "B" should equal the conditional probability of "A" given "B" prior to learning "B". We examine whether ordinary judgment conforms to the orthodox view. In three experiments we found substantial…

Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices

PubMed Central

Schulreich, Stefan; Heussen, Yana G.; Gerhardt, Holger; Mohr, Peter N. C.; Binkofski, Ferdinand C.; Koelsch, Stefan; Heekeren, Hauke R.

2014-01-01

We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to a different kind of music—happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones—and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the “happy” than in the “sad” and “random tones” conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants' choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: in the “happy” condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the “sad” and “random tones” conditions. Moreover, elevation correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting. PMID:24432007

Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices.

PubMed

Schulreich, Stefan; Heussen, Yana G; Gerhardt, Holger; Mohr, Peter N C; Binkofski, Ferdinand C; Koelsch, Stefan; Heekeren, Hauke R

2014-01-07

We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to a different kind of music-happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones-and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the "happy" than in the "sad" and "random tones" conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants' choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: in the "happy" condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the "sad" and "random tones" conditions. Moreover, elevation correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting.

DSM-IV Alcohol Dependence and Marital Dissolution: Evidence From the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions

PubMed Central

Cranford, James A

2014-01-01

Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations among alcohol use disorder (AUD), stressful life events, and marital dissolution in a probability sample of adults. Method: The National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions is a prospective, longitudinal study of a probability sample of 43,083 adults 18 years of age and older living in the United States. The interval between Wave 1 (W1) and Wave 2 (W2) was approximately 3 years. Cross-sectional analyses included 32,359 adults ages 18 and older who were ever married at W1, and longitudinal analyses included 17,192 adults who were currently married at W1 and who completed relevant W2 measures. Participants completed inhome surveys conducted with computer-assisted personal interviewing. Results: Rates of lifetime marital dissolution were significantly higher among those with lifetime AUD (48.3%) than in those with no lifetime AUD (30.1%). The incidence of marital dissolution from W1 to W2 was 15.5% for those with a past-12-month AUD at W1, compared to 4.8% among those with no AUD. Proportional hazards regression analyses showed that past-12-month AUD, tobacco use disorder, other substance use disorder, stressful life events, older age at marriage, being married more than once, and being married to an alcoholic at W1 predicted greater hazards of marital dissolution at W2. These associations were not moderated by gender. Conclusions: AUD and stressful life events predict subsequent marital dissolution independently of other substance use disorders, mood and anxiety disorders, and personality disorders. Results were discussed within the framework of the Vulnerability–Stress–Adaptation model of marriage. PMID:24766764

CProb: a computational tool for conducting conditional probability analysis.

PubMed

Hollister, Jeffrey W; Walker, Henry A; Paul, John F

2008-01-01

Conditional probability is the probability of observing one event given that another event has occurred. In an environmental context, conditional probability helps to assess the association between an environmental contaminant (i.e., the stressor) and the ecological condition of a resource (i.e., the response). These analyses, when combined with controlled experiments and other methodologies, show great promise in evaluating ecological conditions from observational data and in defining water quality and other environmental criteria. Current applications of conditional probability analysis (CPA) are largely done via scripts or cumbersome spreadsheet routines, which may prove daunting to end-users and do not provide access to the underlying scripts. Combining spreadsheets with scripts eases computation through a familiar interface (i.e., Microsoft Excel) and creates a transparent process through full accessibility to the scripts. With this in mind, we developed a software application, CProb, as an Add-in for Microsoft Excel with R, R(D)com Server, and Visual Basic for Applications. CProb calculates and plots scatterplots, empirical cumulative distribution functions, and conditional probability. In this short communication, we describe CPA, our motivation for developing a CPA tool, and our implementation of CPA as a Microsoft Excel Add-in. Further, we illustrate the use of our software with two examples: a water quality example and a landscape example. CProb is freely available for download at http://www.epa.gov/emap/nca/html/regions/cprob.

Effect of age on the performance of bispectral and entropy indices during sevoflurane pediatric anesthesia: a pharmacometric study.

PubMed

Sciusco, Alberto; Standing, Joseph F; Sheng, Yucheng; Raimondo, Pasquale; Cinnella, Gilda; Dambrosio, Michele

2017-04-01

Bispectral index (BIS) and entropy monitors have been proposed for use in children, but research has not supported their validity for infants. However, effective monitoring of young children may be even more important than for adults, to aid appropriate anesthetic dosing and reduce the chance of adverse consequences. This prospective study aimed to investigate the relationships between age and the predictive performance of BIS and entropy monitors in measuring the anesthetic drug effects within a pediatric surgery setting. We concurrently recorded BIS and entropy (SE/RE) in 48 children aged 1 month-12 years, undergoing general anesthesia with sevoflurane and fentanyl. Nonlinear mixed effects modeling was used to characterize the concentration-response relationship independently between the three monitor indicators with sevoflurane. The model's goodness-of-fit was assessed by prediction-corrected visual predictive checks. Model fit with age was evaluated using absolute conditional individual weighted residuals (|CIWRES|). The ability of BIS and entropy monitors to describe the effect of anesthesia was compared with prediction probabilities (P K ) in different age groups. Intraoperative and awakening values were compared in the age groups. The correlation between BIS and entropy was also calculated. |CIWRES| vs age showed an increasing trend in the model's accuracy for all three indicators. P K probabilities were similar for all three indicators within each age group, though lower in infants. The linear correlations between BIS and entropy in different age groups were lower for infants. Infants also tended to have lower values during surgery and at awakening than older children, while toddlers had higher values. Performance of both monitors improves as age increases. Our results suggest a need for the development of new monitor algorithms or calibration to better account for the age-specific EEG dynamics of younger patients. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecology of a Maryland population of black rat snakes (Elaphe o. obsoleta)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stickel, L.F.; Stickel, W.H.; Schmid, F.C.

1980-01-01

Behavior, growth and age of black rat snakes under natural conditions were investigated by mark-recapture methods at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center for 22 years (1942-1963), with limited observations for 13 more years (1964-1976). Over the 35-year period, 330 snakes were recorded a total of 704 times. Individual home ranges remained stable for many years; male ranges averaged at least 600 m in diam and female ranges at least 500 m, each including a diversity of habitats, evidenced also in records of foods. Population density was low, probably less than 0.5 snake/ha. Peak activity of both sexes was in May and June, with a secondary peak in September. Large trees in the midst of open areas appeared to serve a significant functional role in the behavioral life pattern of the snake population. Male combat was observed three times in the field. Male snakes grew more rapidly than females, attained larger sizes and lived longer. Some individuals of both sexes probably lived 20 years or more. Weight-length relationships changed as the snakes grew and developed heavier bodies in proportion to length. Growth apparently continued throughout life. Some individuals, however, both male and female, stopped growing for periods of I or 2 years and then resumed, a condition probably related to poor health, suggested by skin ailments.

Comorbid mental and physical health and health access in Cambodian refugees in the US.

PubMed

Berthold, S Megan; Kong, Sengly; Mollica, Richard F; Kuoch, Theanvy; Scully, Mary; Franke, Todd

2014-12-01

Little research has been conducted on the prevalence of physical health problems in Cambodian refugees and the relationship between their mental and physical health. We identified the relationship between mental and physical health problems and barriers to healthcare access in Cambodian refugee adults. We used a cross-sectional survey design with a snowball sample of 136 Cambodian refugee adult residents of Connecticut and Western Massachusetts. 61% reported being diagnosed with three or more physical conditions and 73% with depression, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or both. Language and transportation problems were the primary barriers to accessing care. Participants with probable comorbid PTSD and depression had 1.850 times more physical health problems than those without either condition (p > .001; CI 1.334-2.566). Age moderated this relationship. Participants who had been diagnosed with both depression and PTSD reported a consistent number of health conditions across the age span while those who had no mental health conditions or only one of the two reported fewer health conditions when they were younger and more when they were older. These two groups were significantly different from the group reporting both. There is a significant relationship between chronic comorbid mental and physical health diseases affecting Cambodian refugees resettled in the US Having comorbid depression and PTSD puts Cambodian refugees at risk for physical health problems no matter their age. It is vital that those treating Cambodian genocide survivors identify and treat their prevalent comorbid health conditions. Language and transportation barriers must be addressed to improve access to mental and physical health care in this population.

Pediatric ambulatory care sensitive conditions: Birth cohorts and the socio-economic gradient.

PubMed

Roos, Leslie L; Dragan, Roxana; Schroth, Robert J

2017-09-14

This study examines the socio-economic gradient in utilization and the risk factors associated with hospitalization for four pediatric ambulatory care sensitive conditions (dental conditions, asthma, gastroenteritis, and bacterial pneumonia). Dental conditions, where much care is provided by dentists and insurance coverage varies among different population segments, present special issues. A population registry, provider registry, physician ambulatory claims, and hospital discharge abstracts from 28 398 children born in 2003-2006 in urban centres in Manitoba, Canada were the main data sources. Physician visits and hospitalizations were compared across neighbourhood income groupings using rank correlations and logistic regressions. Very strong relationships between neighbourhood income and utilization were highlighted. Additional variables - family on income assistance, mother's age at first birth, breastfeeding - helped predict the probability of hospitalization. Despite the complete insurance coverage (including visits to dentists and physicians and for hospitalizations) provided, receiving income assistance was associated with higher probabilities of hospitalization. We found a socio-economic gradient in utilization for pediatric ambulatory care sensitive conditions, with higher rates of ambulatory visits and hospitalizations in the poorest neighbourhoods. Insurance coverage which varies between different segments of the population complicates matters. Providing funding for dental care for Manitobans on income assistance has not prevented physician visits or intensive treatment in high-cost facilities, specifically treatment under general anesthesia. When services from one type of provider (dentist) are not universally insured but those from another type (physician) are, using rates of hospitalization to indicate problems in the organization of care seems particularly difficult.

Persistent positive North Atlantic oscillation mode dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

PubMed

Trouet, Valérie; Esper, Jan; Graham, Nicholas E; Baker, Andy; Scourse, James D; Frank, David C

2009-04-03

The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was the most recent pre-industrial era warm interval of European climate, yet its driving mechanisms remain uncertain. We present here a 947-year-long multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reconstruction and find a persistent positive NAO during the MCA. Supplementary reconstructions based on climate model results and proxy data indicate a clear shift to weaker NAO conditions into the Little Ice Age (LIA). Globally distributed proxy data suggest that this NAO shift is one aspect of a global MCA-LIA climate transition that probably was coupled to prevailing La Niña-like conditions amplified by an intensified Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the MCA.

Abnormal Placentation: Placenta Previa, Vasa Previa, and Placenta Accreta.

PubMed

Silver, Robert M

2015-09-01

Placental disorders such as placenta previa, placenta accreta, and vasa previa are all associated with vaginal bleeding in the second half of pregnancy. They are also important causes of serious fetal and maternal morbidity and even mortality. Moreover, the rates of previa and accreta are increasing, probably as a result of increasing rates of cesarean delivery, maternal age, and assisted reproductive technology. The routine use of obstetric ultrasonography as well as improving ultrasonographic technology allows for the antenatal diagnosis of these conditions. In turn, antenatal diagnosis facilitates optimal obstetric management. This review emphasizes an evidence-based approach to the clinical management of pregnancies with these conditions as well as highlights important knowledge gaps.

Mitral valve prolapse and hyperthyroidism: effect of patient selection.

PubMed

Zullo, M A; Devereux, R B; Kramer-Fox, R; Lutas, E M; Brown, W T

1985-11-01

Patients with mitral valve prolapse and hyperthyroidism have common symptoms; the most outstanding symptom is palpitation. To determine whether or not common symptoms contributed to the reported association of these conditions, we evaluated 220 patients with symptomatic mitral valve prolapse and 216 first-degree relatives in 72 families; 65 relatives with mitral valve prolapse and 151 relatives without mitral valve prolapse, all greater than or equal to 16 years of age. Thirty subjects, aged 49 +/- 13 years (p less than 0.025 vs entire study group), had thyroid disease (23 subjects had definite thyroid disease, seven subjects had probable); 27 of 30 subjects with thyroid disease (90%) were female (p less than 0.005). The age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of hyperthyroidism was significantly higher in probands with mitral valve prolapse than in family members without mitral valve prolapse (3.5% vs 0%, p = 0.03), while an intermediate prevalence of hyperthyroidism (2.2%) was observed in family members with mitral valve prolapse. Thus, the prevalence of hyperthyroidism is increased among symptomatic patients with mitral valve prolapse as compared to family members without mitral valve prolapse, but the prevalence of thyroid conditions is similar among family members with or without this condition. These findings are explained by the effect of common symptoms on clinical detection of both mitral valve prolapse and hyperthyroidism.

Anomalous Growth of Aging Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grebenkov, Denis S.

2016-04-01

We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability q_k depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's "age" in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities q_k at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.

How Has the Age-Related Process of Overweight or Obesity Development Changed over Time? Co-ordinated Analyses of Individual Participant Data from Five United Kingdom Birth Cohorts

PubMed Central

Johnson, William; Li, Leah; Kuh, Diana; Hardy, Rebecca

2015-01-01

Background There is a paucity of information on secular trends in the age-related process by which people develop overweight or obesity. Utilizing longitudinal data in the United Kingdom birth cohort studies, we investigated shifts over the past nearly 70 years in the distribution of body mass index (BMI) and development of overweight or obesity across childhood and adulthood. Methods and Findings The sample comprised 56,632 participants with 273,843 BMI observations in the 1946 Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; ages 2–64 years), 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS; 7–50), 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS; 10–42), 1991 Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; 7–18), or 2001 Millennium Cohort Study (MCS; 3–11). Growth references showed a secular trend toward positive skewing of the BMI distribution at younger ages. During childhood, the 50th centiles for all studies lay in the middle of the International Obesity Task Force normal weight range, but during adulthood, the age when a 50th centile first entered the overweight range (i.e., 25–29.9 kg/m2) decreased across NSHD, NCDS, and BCS from 41 to 33 to 30 years in males and 48 to 44 to 41 years in females. Trajectories of overweight or obesity showed that more recently born cohorts developed greater probabilities of overweight or obesity at younger ages. Overweight or obesity became more probable in NCDS than NSHD in early adulthood, but more probable in BCS than NCDS and NSHD in adolescence, for example. By age 10 years, the estimated probabilities of overweight or obesity in cohorts born after the 1980s were 2–3 times greater than those born before the 1980s (e.g., 0.229 [95% CI 0.219–0.240] in MCS males; 0.071 [0.065–0.078] in NSHD males). It was not possible to (1) model separate trajectories for overweight and obesity, because there were few obesity cases at young ages in the earliest-born cohorts, or (2) consider ethnic minority groups. The end date for analyses was August 2014. Conclusions Our results demonstrate how younger generations are likely to accumulate greater exposure to overweight or obesity throughout their lives and, thus, increased risk for chronic health conditions such as coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. In the absence of effective intervention, overweight and obesity will have severe public health consequences in decades to come. PMID:25993005

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability.

PubMed

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.

Recruitment in a Colorado population of big brown bats: Breeding probabilities, litter size, and first-year survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Neubaum, D.J.; Neubaum, M.A.; Reynolds, C.A.; Bowen, R.A.

2010-01-01

We used markrecapture estimation techniques and radiography to test hypotheses about 3 important aspects of recruitment in big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado: adult breeding probabilities, litter size, and 1st-year survival of young. We marked 2,968 females with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags at multiple sites during 2001-2005 and based our assessments on direct recaptures (breeding probabilities) and passive detection with automated PIT tag readers (1st-year survival). We interpreted our data in relation to hypotheses regarding demographic influences of bat age, roost, and effects of years with unusual environmental conditions: extreme drought (2002) and arrival of a West Nile virus epizootic (2003). Conditional breeding probabilities at 6 roosts sampled in 2002-2005 were estimated as 0.64 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.530.73) in 1-year-old females, but were consistently high (95% CI = 0.940.96) and did not vary by roost, year, or prior year breeding status in older adults. Mean litter size was 1.11 (95% CI = 1.051.17), based on examination of 112 pregnant females by radiography. Litter size was not higher in older or larger females and was similar to results of other studies in western North America despite wide variation in latitude. First-year survival was estimated as 0.67 (95% CI = 0.610.73) for weaned females at 5 maternity roosts over 5 consecutive years, was lower than adult survival (0.79; 95% CI = 0.770.81), and varied by roost. Based on model selection criteria, strong evidence exists for complex roost and year effects on 1st-year survival. First-year survival was lowest in bats born during the drought year. Juvenile females that did not return to roosts as 1-year-olds had lower body condition indices in late summer of their natal year than those known to survive. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

Ageing in India: Financial hardship from health expenditures.

PubMed

Lee, Ting-Hsuan J; Saran, Indrani; Rao, Krishna D

2018-04-01

India's rapidly ageing population raises concerns about the burden of health care payments among older individuals who may have both limited income and greater health care needs. Using a nationally representative household survey, we investigate the association between age and financial hardship due to health expenditures. We find that both the probability of experiencing health problems and mean total out-of-pocket health expenditures increase with age. Second, the probability of households experiencing catastrophic health expenditures increases with each additional member aged 60 and above-33% of households with one 60+ member and 38% of households with 2 or more 60+ members experienced catastrophic health expenditures, compared to only 20% in households with all members under the age of 60 years. Lastly, we show that individuals aged 60 and above had a much higher probability of becoming impoverished as a result of health expenditures-the probability of impoverishment for 60+ individuals was 3 percentage points higher than for individuals under the age of 60. Overall, around 4.8% of the older population, representing 4.1 million people, fell into poverty. The results suggest that there is an urgent need for public investments in financial protection programs for older people in India. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Adaptive Strategies for the Elderly in Inhibiting Irrelevant and Conflict No-Go Trials while Performing the Go/No-Go Task

PubMed Central

Hsieh, Shulan; Wu, Mengyao; Tang, Chien-Hui

2016-01-01

This study aimed to differentiate whether or not older adults are more prone to distraction or conflict, as induced by irrelevant and conflict no-go stimuli (irNOGO and cfNOGO), respectively. This study also aimed to determine whether or not older adults would devote more effort to withholding a no-go trial in the higher-control demand condition (20% no-go trials’ probability) as compared to the lower-control demand condition (50 and 80% no-go trials’ probability). A total of 96 individuals were recruited, and each of the three no-go trials’ probability conditions included 32 participants (16 younger adults and 16 older adults). Both behavioral and event-related potential (ERP) data were measured. The behavioral results showed that the older adults performed more poorly than the younger adults for the go trials, as reflected by slower reaction times (RTs) and higher numbers of omission errors in the go trials. In contrast, in the no-go trials, the older adults counter-intuitively exhibited similar behavioral performance (i.e., equivalent commission errors) as compared to the younger adults. The ERP data further showed that the older adults (but not the younger adults) exhibited larger P3 peak amplitudes for the irNOGO than cfNOGO trials. Yet, on the other hand, the older adults performed more poorly (i.e., had more commission errors) in the cfNOGO than irNOGO trials. These results seem to suggest that the older adults recruited more control processes in order to conquer the commitment of responses in the no-go trials, especially in the irNOGO trials. This age-related compensatory response of recruiting more control processes was specifically seen in the 20% no-go trial probability condition. This study therefore provides a deeper understanding into how older adults adopt strategies for performing the go/no-go task such as devoting more control processes to inhibiting the irNOGO trials compared to the cfNOGO trials in order to cope with their deficient inhibition ability. PMID:26779012

Extended Eden model reproduces growth of an acellular slime mold.

PubMed

Wagner, G; Halvorsrud, R; Meakin, P

1999-11-01

A stochastic growth model was used to simulate the growth of the acellular slime mold Physarum polycephalum on substrates where the nutrients were confined in separate drops. Growth of Physarum on such substrates was previously studied experimentally and found to produce a range of different growth patterns [Phys. Rev. E 57, 941 (1998)]. The model represented the aging of cluster sites and differed from the original Eden model in that the occupation probability of perimeter sites depended on the time of occupation of adjacent cluster sites. This feature led to a bias in the selection of growth directions. A moderate degree of persistence was found to be crucial to reproduce the biological growth patterns under various conditions. Persistence in growth combined quick propagation in heterogeneous environments with a high probability of locating sources of nutrients.

Extended Eden model reproduces growth of an acellular slime mold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Geri; Halvorsrud, Ragnhild; Meakin, Paul

1999-11-01

A stochastic growth model was used to simulate the growth of the acellular slime mold Physarum polycephalum on substrates where the nutrients were confined in separate drops. Growth of Physarum on such substrates was previously studied experimentally and found to produce a range of different growth patterns [Phys. Rev. E 57, 941 (1998)]. The model represented the aging of cluster sites and differed from the original Eden model in that the occupation probability of perimeter sites depended on the time of occupation of adjacent cluster sites. This feature led to a bias in the selection of growth directions. A moderate degree of persistence was found to be crucial to reproduce the biological growth patterns under various conditions. Persistence in growth combined quick propagation in heterogeneous environments with a high probability of locating sources of nutrients.

Multiple Chronic Conditions and Hospitalizations Among Recipients of Long-Term Services and Supports

PubMed Central

Van Cleave, Janet H.; Egleston, Brian L.; Abbott, Katherine M.; Hirschman, Karen B.; Rao, Aditi; Naylor, Mary D.

2016-01-01

Background Among older adults receiving long term-services and supports (LTSS), debilitating hospitalizations is a pervasive clinical and research problem. Multiple chronic conditions (MCC) are prevalent in LTSS recipients. However, the combination of MCC and diseases associated with hospitalizations of LTSS recipients is unclear. Objective The purpose of this analysis was to determine the association between classes of MCC in newly enrolled LTSS recipients and the number of hospitalizations over a one-year period following enrollment. Methods This report is based on secondary analysis of extant data from a longitudinal cohort study of 470 new recipients of LTSS, ages 60 years and older, receiving services in assisted living facilities, nursing homes, or through home- and community-based services. Using baseline chronic conditions reported in medical records, latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify classes of MCC and posterior probabilities of membership in each class. Poisson regressions were used to estimate the relative ratio between posterior probabilities of class membership and number of hospitalizations during the 3 month period prior to the start of LTSS (baseline) and then every three months forward through 12 months. Results Three latent MCC-based classes named Cardiopulmonary, Cerebrovascular/Paralysis, and All Other Conditions were identified. The Cardiopulmonary class was associated with elevated numbers of hospitalization compared to the All Other Conditions class (relative ratio [RR] = 1.88, 95% CI [1.33, 2.65], p < .001). Conclusion Older LTSS recipients with a combination of MCCs that includes cardiopulmonary conditions have increased risk for hospitalization. PMID:27801713

The impact of comorbid disease history on all-cause and cancer-specific mortality in myeloid leukemia and myeloma - a Swedish population-based study.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Mohammad; Cao, Yang; Glimelius, Ingrid; Bottai, Matteo; Eloranta, Sandra; Smedby, Karin E

2015-11-05

Comorbidity increases overall mortality in patients diagnosed with hematological malignancies. The impact of comorbidity on cancer-specific mortality, taking competing risks into account, has not been evaluated. Using the Swedish Cancer Register, we identified patients aged >18 years with a first diagnosis of acute myeloid leukemia (AML, N = 2,550), chronic myeloid leukemia (CML, N = 1,000) or myeloma (N = 4,584) 2002-2009. Comorbid disease history was assessed through in- and out-patient care as defined in the Charlson comorbidity index. Mortality rate ratios (MRR) were estimated through 2012 using Poisson regression. Probabilities of cancer-specific death were computed using flexible parametric survival models. Comorbidity was associated with increased all-cause as well as cancer-specific mortality (cancer-specific MRR: AML = 1.27, 95 % CI: 1.15-1.40; CML = 1.28, 0.96-1.70; myeloma = 1.17, 1.08-1.28) compared with patients without comorbidity. Disorders associated with higher cancer-specific mortality were renal disease (in patients with AML, CML and myeloma), cerebrovascular conditions, dementia, psychiatric disease (AML, myeloma), liver and rheumatic disease (AML), cardiovascular and pulmonary disease (myeloma). The difference in the probability of cancer-specific death, comparing patients with and without comorbidity, was largest among AML patients <70 years, whereas in myeloma the difference did not vary by age among the elderly. The probability of cancer-specific death was generally higher than other-cause death even in older age groups, irrespective of comorbidity. Comorbidities associated with organ failure or cognitive function are associated with poorer prognosis in several hematological malignancies, likely due to lower treatment tolerability. The results highlight the need for a better balance between treatment toxicity and efficacy in comorbid and elderly AML, CML and myeloma patients.

Conditional, Time-Dependent Probabilities for Segmented Type-A Faults in the WGCEP UCERF 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; Gupta, Vipin

2008-01-01

This appendix presents elastic-rebound-theory (ERT) motivated time-dependent probabilities, conditioned on the date of last earthquake, for the segmented type-A fault models of the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). These probabilities are included as one option in the WGCEP?s Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2 (UCERF 2), with the other options being time-independent Poisson probabilities and an ?Empirical? model based on observed seismicity rate changes. A more general discussion of the pros and cons of all methods for computing time-dependent probabilities, as well as the justification of those chosen for UCERF 2, are given in the main body of this report (and the 'Empirical' model is also discussed in Appendix M). What this appendix addresses is the computation of conditional, time-dependent probabilities when both single- and multi-segment ruptures are included in the model. Computing conditional probabilities is relatively straightforward when a fault is assumed to obey strict segmentation in the sense that no multi-segment ruptures occur (e.g., WGCEP (1988, 1990) or see Field (2007) for a review of all previous WGCEPs; from here we assume basic familiarity with conditional probability calculations). However, and as we?ll see below, the calculation is not straightforward when multi-segment ruptures are included, in essence because we are attempting to apply a point-process model to a non point process. The next section gives a review and evaluation of the single- and multi-segment rupture probability-calculation methods used in the most recent statewide forecast for California (WGCEP UCERF 1; Petersen et al., 2007). We then present results for the methodology adopted here for UCERF 2. We finish with a discussion of issues and possible alternative approaches that could be explored and perhaps applied in the future. A fault-by-fault comparison of UCERF 2 probabilities with those of previous studies is given in the main part of this report.

Population density shapes patterns of survival and reproduction in Eleutheria dichotoma (Hydrozoa: Anthoathecata).

PubMed

Dańko, Aleksandra; Schaible, Ralf; Pijanowska, Joanna; Dańko, Maciej J

2018-01-01

Budding hydromedusae have high reproductive rates due to asexual reproduction and can occur in high population densities along the coasts, specifically in tidal pools. In laboratory experiments, we investigated the effects of population density on the survival and reproductive strategies of a single clone of Eleutheria dichotoma . We found that sexual reproduction occurs with the highest rate at medium population densities. Increased sexual reproduction was associated with lower budding (asexual reproduction) and survival probability. Sexual reproduction results in the production of motile larvae that can, in contrast to medusae, seek to escape unfavorable conditions by actively looking for better environments. The successful settlement of a larva results in starting the polyp stage, which is probably more resistant to environmental conditions. This is the first study that has examined the life-history strategies of the budding hydromedusa E. dichotoma by conducting a long-term experiment with a relatively large sample size that allowed for the examination of age-specific mortality and reproductive rates. We found that most sexual and asexual reproduction occurred at the beginning of life following a very rapid process of maturation. The parametric models fitted to the mortality data showed that population density was associated with an increase in the rate of aging, an increase in the level of late-life mortality plateau, and a decrease in the hidden heterogeneity in individual mortality rates. The effects of population density on life-history traits are discussed in the context of resource allocation and the r/K-strategies' continuum concept.

The Formalism of Generalized Contexts and Decay Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Losada, Marcelo; Laura, Roberto

2013-04-01

The formalism of generalized contexts for quantum histories is used to investigate the possibility to consider the survival probability as the probability of no decay property at a given time conditional to no decay property at an earlier time. A negative result is found for an isolated system. The inclusion of two quantum measurement instruments at two different times makes possible to interpret the survival probability as a conditional probability of the whole system.

Gender and Ageing at Work in Chile: Employment, Working Conditions, Work-Life Balance and Health of Men and Women in an Ageing Workforce.

PubMed

Vives, Alejandra; Gray, Nora; González, Francisca; Molina, Agustín

2018-04-18

In Chile, working after retirement age has grown substantially over the last years. This, in addition to the country's current discussion about extending retirement age, motivates the need of generating evidence on the occupational health and safety of the working old, with a special focus on women, who are critically disadvantaged in Chile's labour market. The objective of this paper is to describe and compare the ageing workforce of women and men in Chile in terms of labour market participation, employment and working conditions, work-life balance, and health. The social determinants of health and employment sustainability frameworks guide this study. Cross-sectional data from three publicly available sources: the Chilean Labour Force Survey, NENE (2010); the first Chilean Employment and working conditions survey, ENETS (2009-2010) and the second National Health Survey, ENS (2009). Participation rates and employment conditions (NENE and ENETS), working conditions, occupational health and work-life balance (ENETS) and chronic health conditions (ENS) were described by 5-year age groups separately for women and men. Descriptions cover all age groups in order to identify trends and patterns characteristic of older workers. Rates of occupation decrease sharply after age 54 in women and 59 in men. Ageing women and men who continue to work are more likely to be in own-account (self-employed) work than younger workers; in the case of women, in households as domestic workers, and men, in agriculture. Social protection and workplace rights are markedly reduced in older workers. Part-time work increases from the age of 50 onwards, especially among women, but average working hours do not decrease under 30 h a week for either women or men. Interestingly, between ages 60 and 64, there is a peak increase of day and night shift-work among women, which co-occurs with a peak in domestic work, possibly corresponding to women working as caretakers of elderly people. Several workplace risks continue to be high into old age: intensive work and demanding physical work, especially in men, and the combination of paid and unpaid care work in women, which continues to be high up to the age of 70 years. The health of older workers is better than that of non-working people of the same age, a gap which is markedly larger for women than men and tends to increase among women as they age. Results indicate that Chileans working into old age face precarious jobs with limited protection and several adverse working conditions. Noteworthy, women carry the double burden of paid and unpaid work into their late years. In addition, results suggest they are affected more profoundly by the healthy worker effect whereby the health condition determines the probability of finding and keeping a job-also known as a health selection mechanism-which increases as they age. These employment and working conditions indicate that working into old age is not yet sustainable in Chile and counts as evidence that needs to be taken into account in discussions about delaying the retirement age in the country, as well as incorporating support systems to alleviate the double work burden of ageing working women.

Prevalence of probable Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder symptoms: result from a Spanish sample of children.

PubMed

Cerrillo-Urbina, Alberto José; García-Hermoso, Antonio; Martínez-Vizcaíno, Vicente; Pardo-Guijarro, María Jesús; Ruiz-Hermosa, Abel; Sánchez-López, Mairena

2018-03-15

The aims of our study were to: (i) determine the prevalence of children aged 4 to 6 years with probable Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) symptoms in the Spanish population; and (ii) analyse the association of probable ADHD symptoms with sex, age, type of school, origin (native or foreign) and socio-economic status in these children. This cross-sectional study included 1189 children (4 to 6 years-old) from 21 primary schools in 19 towns from the Ciudad Real and Cuenca provinces, Castilla-La Mancha region, Spain. The ADHD Rating Scales IV for parents and teachers was administered to determine the probability of ADHD. The 90th percentile cut-off was used to establish the prevalence of inattention, hyperactivity/impulsivity and combined subtype. The prevalence of children with probable ADHD symptoms was 5.4% (2.6% inattention subtype symptoms, 1.5% hyperactivity/impulsivity subtype symptoms, and 1.3% combined subtype symptoms). Children aged 4 to 5 years showed a higher prevalence of probable ADHD in the inattention subtype symptoms and in total of all subtypes than children aged 6 years, and children with low socio-economic status reported a higher prevalence of probable ADHD symptoms (each subtype and total of all of them) than those with medium and high socio-economic status. Early diagnosis and an understanding of the predictors of being probable ADHD are needed to direct appropriate identification and intervention efforts. These screening efforts should be especially addressed to vulnerable groups, particularly low socio-economic status families and younger children.

Asthma Is More Severe in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Dweik, Raed A.; Comhair, Suzy A.; Bleecker, Eugene R.; Moore, Wendy C.; Peters, Stephen P.; Busse, William W.; Jarjour, Nizar N.; Calhoun, William J.; Castro, Mario; Chung, K. Fan; Fitzpatrick, Anne; Israel, Elliot; Teague, W. Gerald; Wenzel, Sally E.; Love, Thomas E.; Gaston, Benjamin M.

2015-01-01

Background Severe asthma occurs more often in older adult patients. We hypothesized that the greater risk for severe asthma in older individuals is due to aging, and is independent of asthma duration. Methods This is a cross-sectional study of prospectively collected data from adult participants (N=1130; 454 with severe asthma) enrolled from 2002 – 2011 in the Severe Asthma Research Program. Results The association between age and the probability of severe asthma, which was performed by applying a Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoother, revealed an inflection point at age 45 for risk of severe asthma. The probability of severe asthma increased with each year of life until 45 years and thereafter increased at a much slower rate. Asthma duration also increased the probability of severe asthma but had less effect than aging. After adjustment for most comorbidities of aging and for asthma duration using logistic regression, asthmatics older than 45 maintained the greater probability of severe asthma [OR: 2.73 (95 CI: 1.96; 3.81)]. After 45, the age-related risk of severe asthma continued to increase in men, but not in women. Conclusions Overall, the impact of age and asthma duration on risk for asthma severity in men and women is greatest over times of 18-45 years of age; age has a greater effect than asthma duration on risk of severe asthma. PMID:26200463

Analysis of dental attrition and mortality in the Medieval village of Tirup, Denmark.

PubMed

Boldsen, Jesper L

2005-02-01

New directions and new questions raised in the study of health in the past justify this reanalysis of the pattern of dental attrition in the Medieval Danish population of Tirup. Dental attrition was scored on all permanent molars from the Tirup skeletal sample. Scores were analyzed by means of logistic regression of the probability of having entered a given stage of wear for a given tooth in a way that is very similar to transition analysis. The primary determinant of dental attrition was age at death. In addition to age, the effects of sex, side, and dating were analyzed. In order to assess the homogeneity of the process of wearing teeth down, a third-order polynomial in age-at-death was also fitted to the transition probabilities. It was found that age is the single most important determinant of dental attrition, and that sex or side did not differentiate the rate of attrition. In several transitions, there was evidence of heterogeneity, indicating both random and systematic interpersonal differences in the rate of attrition and an association between the rate of attrition and age-at-death. It was found that attrition proceeded more quickly after AD 1300 than prior to that date. It is suggested that this was due to a possible general deterioration of living conditions in Northern Europe and an increased reliance on grain for food during the first half of the 14th century. The temporal effect on attrition rate accounts for some but not all the observed heterogeneity wear. 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Use of Mental Health Services in Transition Age Youth with Bipolar Disorder

PubMed Central

Hower, Heather; Case, Brady G.; Hoeppner, Bettina; Yen, Shirley; Goldstein, Tina; Goldstein, Benjamin; Birmaher, Boris; Weinstock, Lauren; Topor, David; Hunt, Jeffrey; Strober, Michael; Ryan, Neal; Axelson, David; Gill, Mary Kay; Keller, Martin B.

2013-01-01

Objectives There is concern that treatment of serious mental illness in the United States declines precipitously following legal emancipation at age 18 years and transition from specialty youth clinical settings. We examined age transition effects on treatment utilization in a sample of youth with bipolar disorder. Methods Youth with bipolar disorder (N = 413) 7–18 years of age were assessed approximately twice per year (mean interval 8.2 months) for at least 4 years. Annual use of any individual, group, and family therapy, psychopharmacology visits, and hospitalization at each year of age, and monthly use from ages 17 through 19 years, were examined. The effect of age transition to 18 years on monthly visit probability was tested in the subsample with observed transitions (n = 204). Putative sociodemographic moderators and the influence of clinical course were assessed. Results Visit probabilities for the most common modalities—psychopharmacology, individual psychotherapy, and home-based care— generally fell from childhood to young adulthood. For example, the annual probability of at least one psychopharmacology visit was 97% at age 8, 75% at age 17, 60% at age 19, and 46% by age 22. Treatment probabilities fell in transition-age youth from age 17 through 19, but a specific transition effect at age 18 was not found. Declines did not vary based on sociodemographic characteristics and were not explained by changing severity of the bipolar illness or functioning. Conclusions Mental health treatment declined with age in this sample of youth with bipolar disorder, but reductions were not concentrated during or after the transition to age 18 years. Declines were unrelated to symptom severity or impairment. PMID:24241500

Diagnostic testing for coagulopathies in patients with ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Bushnell, C D; Goldstein, L B

2000-12-01

Hypercoagulable states are a recognized, albeit uncommon, etiology of ischemic stroke. It is unclear how often the results of specialized coagulation tests affect management. Using data compiled from a systematic review of available studies, we employed quantitative methodology to assess the diagnostic yield of coagulation tests for identification of coagulopathies in ischemic stroke patients. We performed a MEDLINE search to identify controlled studies published during 1966-1999 that reported the prevalence of deficiencies of protein C, protein S, antithrombin III, plasminogen, activated protein C resistance (APCR)/factor V Leiden mutation (FVL), anticardiolipin antibodies (ACL), or lupus anticoagulant (LA) in patients with ischemic stroke. The cumulative prevalence rates (pretest probabilities) and positive likelihood ratios for all studies and for those including only patients aged

Using dynamic geometry software for teaching conditional probability with area-proportional Venn diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radakovic, Nenad; McDougall, Douglas

2012-10-01

This classroom note illustrates how dynamic visualization can be used to teach conditional probability and Bayes' theorem. There are two features of the visualization that make it an ideal pedagogical tool in probability instruction. The first feature is the use of area-proportional Venn diagrams that, along with showing qualitative relationships, describe the quantitative relationship between two sets. The second feature is the slider and animation component of dynamic geometry software enabling students to observe how the change in the base rate of an event influences conditional probability. A hypothetical instructional sequence using a well-known breast cancer example is described.

The World According to de Finetti: On de Finetti's Theory of Probability and Its Application to Quantum Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkovitz, Joseph

Bruno de Finetti is one of the founding fathers of the subjectivist school of probability, where probabilities are interpreted as rational degrees of belief. His work on the relation between the theorems of probability and rationality is among the corner stones of modern subjective probability theory. De Finetti maintained that rationality requires that degrees of belief be coherent, and he argued that the whole of probability theory could be derived from these coherence conditions. De Finetti's interpretation of probability has been highly influential in science. This paper focuses on the application of this interpretation to quantum mechanics. We argue that de Finetti held that the coherence conditions of degrees of belief in events depend on their verifiability. Accordingly, the standard coherence conditions of degrees of belief that are familiar from the literature on subjective probability only apply to degrees of belief in events which could (in principle) be jointly verified; and the coherence conditions of degrees of belief in events that cannot be jointly verified are weaker. While the most obvious explanation of de Finetti's verificationism is the influence of positivism, we argue that it could be motivated by the radical subjectivist and instrumental nature of probability in his interpretation; for as it turns out, in this interpretation it is difficult to make sense of the idea of coherent degrees of belief in, and accordingly probabilities of unverifiable events. We then consider the application of this interpretation to quantum mechanics, concentrating on the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen experiment and Bell's theorem.

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

PubMed Central

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Background Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. Method We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. Results When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Conclusions Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing. PMID:27004080

Estimating lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer.

PubMed

Wun, L M; Merrill, R M; Feuer, E J

1998-01-01

Lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer provide a useful summary to the public of the current cancer risk and how this risk compares with earlier periods and among select subgroups of society. These reported estimates, commonly quoted in the popular press, have the potential to promote early detection efforts, to increase cancer awareness, and to serve as an aid in study planning. However, they can also be easily misunderstood and frightening to the general public. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute and the American Cancer Society have recently begun including in annual reports lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. These risk estimates are based on incidence rates that reflect new cases of the cancer in a population free of the cancer. To compute these estimates involves a cancer prevalence adjustment that is computed cross-sectionally from current incidence and mortality data derived within a multiple decrement life table. This paper presents a detailed description of the methodology for deriving lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. In addition, an extension is made which, using a triple decrement life table, adjusts for a surgical procedure that removes individuals from the risk of developing a given cancer. Two important results which provide insights into the basic methodology are included in the discussion. First, the lifetime risk estimate does not depend on the cancer prevalence adjustment, although this is not the case for age-conditional risk estimates. Second, the lifetime risk estimate is always smaller when it is corrected for a surgical procedure that takes people out of the risk pool to develop the cancer. The methodology is applied to corpus and uterus NOS cancers, with a correction made for hysterectomy prevalence. The interpretation and limitations of risk estimates are also discussed.

Assessment of goals and priorities in patients with a chronic condition: a secondary quantitative analysis of determinants across 11 countries.

PubMed

Vermunt, Neeltje P C A; Westert, Gert P; Olde Rikkert, Marcel G M; Faber, Marjan J

2018-03-01

To assess the impact of patient characteristics, patient-professional engagement, communication and context on the probability that healthcare professionals will discuss goals or priorities with older patients. Secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from the 2014 Commonwealth Fund International Health Policy Survey of Older Adults. 11 western countries. Community-dwelling adults, aged 55 or older. Assessment of goals and priorities. The final sample size consisted of 17,222 respondents, 54% of whom reported an assessment of their goals and priorities (AGP) by healthcare professionals. In logistic regression model 1, which was used to analyse the entire population, the determinants found to have moderate to large effects on the likelihood of AGP were information exchange on stress, diet or exercise, or both. Country (living in Sweden) and continuity of care (no regular professional or organisation) had moderate to large negative effects on the likelihood of AGP. In model 2, which focussed on respondents who experienced continuity of care, country and information exchange on stress and lifestyle were the main determinants of AGP, with comparable odds ratios to model 1. Furthermore, a professional asking questions also increased the likelihood of AGP. Continuity of care and information exchange is associated with a higher probability of AGP, while people living in Sweden are less likely to experience these assessments. Further study is required to determine whether increasing information exchange and professionals asking more questions may improve goal setting with older patients. Key points   A patient goal-oriented approach can be beneficial for older patients with chronic conditions or multimorbidity; however, discussing goals with these patients is not a common practice. The likelihood of discussing goals varies by country, occurring most commonly in the USA, and least often in Sweden. Country-level differences in continuity of care and questions asked by a regularly visited professional affect the goal discussion probability. Patient characteristics, including age, have less impact than expected on the likelihood of sharing goals.

Conservative Analytical Collision Probabilities for Orbital Formation Flying

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell

2004-01-01

The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

Conservative Analytical Collision Probability for Design of Orbital Formations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell

2004-01-01

The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

[Elderly, poor, solitary and marginal patients: geriatric vulnerability in emergency services].

PubMed

Marín Gámez, N; Kessel Sardiñas, H; López Martínez, G; Barnosi Marín, A; Montoya Vergel, J; Navarro Corral, A; Delgado Rodríguez, M

1998-07-01

Status is a powerful determinant of health, and it may influence on the demand of Hospital emergency services. The aim of our investigation is to assess whether elderly patients usually wandering emergency services gather more negative socioeconomic conditions. A cross-sectional study on 800 randomised patients cared in emergency services was carried out. A questionnaire about economic, educational and professional levels, domestic violence, loneliness and life style was applied. A crude analysis was used to assess the age-factor (>/= 65 y.o.) by BMDP (PC 90). The trial was approved by the local Bioethics board. Low incomes, low educational level and loneliness were clinic and statistically related with age (65 and more). Data is offered as n (%), X2 and p < 0.0001 (Fisher exact Test two sided p value). Elderly patients frequently demanding hospital emergency services gather more vulnerability conditions, not merely medical. Low incomes, low educational level and loneliness are probably working as key factors on the geriatric demand of emergency services.

A review of bufflehead sex and age criteria with notes on weights

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henny, C.J.; Carter, J.L.; Carter, Barbara J.

1981-01-01

Summary: Buftleheads Bucephala albeola were collected along the Oregon coast during the hunting season. Birds were first sexed and aged upon cloacal and internal characteristics. Results were then compared with data derived from wing plumage. A small change was made in Carney's (1964) wing plumage key to improve its accuracy. Although only a few studies have been made of Bufflehead weights, it seems that in at least several of these, some immature males have been included in the female category. This mistake has probably resulted from the extremely small penis in the immatures. The foot web length shows potential as a simple sexing criterion during the fall and winter for immatures which are the most difficult to sex under field conditions.

Burning mouth syndrome: A review on its diagnostic and therapeutic approach

PubMed Central

Aravindhan, R.; Vidyalakshmi, Santhanam; Kumar, Muniapillai Siva; Satheesh, C.; Balasubramanium, A. Murali; Prasad, V. Srinivas

2014-01-01

Burning mouth syndrome (BMS), a chronic and intractable orofacial pain syndrome is characterized by the presence of burning sensation of the oral mucosa in the absence of specific oral lesion. This condition affects chiefly of middle aged and elderly woman with hormonal changes or psychological disorders. In addition to burning sensation, patient with BMS also complains of oral mucosal pain, altered taste sensation, and dry mouth. This condition is probably of multifactorial origin, often idiopathic and its exact etiopathogenesis remains unclear. So far, there is no definitive cure for this condition and most of the treatment approaches, medications remains unsatisfactory. An interdisciplinary and systematic approach is required for better patient management. The purpose of this article is to present a review of epidemiology, clinical presentation, classification, etiopathogenesis, diagnosis and management of BMS. PMID:25210377

Implementation of the Iterative Proportion Fitting Algorithm for Geostatistical Facies Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li Yupeng, E-mail: yupeng@ualberta.ca; Deutsch, Clayton V.

2012-06-15

In geostatistics, most stochastic algorithm for simulation of categorical variables such as facies or rock types require a conditional probability distribution. The multivariate probability distribution of all the grouped locations including the unsampled location permits calculation of the conditional probability directly based on its definition. In this article, the iterative proportion fitting (IPF) algorithm is implemented to infer this multivariate probability. Using the IPF algorithm, the multivariate probability is obtained by iterative modification to an initial estimated multivariate probability using lower order bivariate probabilities as constraints. The imposed bivariate marginal probabilities are inferred from profiles along drill holes or wells.more » In the IPF process, a sparse matrix is used to calculate the marginal probabilities from the multivariate probability, which makes the iterative fitting more tractable and practical. This algorithm can be extended to higher order marginal probability constraints as used in multiple point statistics. The theoretical framework is developed and illustrated with estimation and simulation example.« less

Mood disturbance and depression in Arab women following hospitalisation from acute cardiac conditions: a cross-sectional study from Qatar

PubMed Central

Donnelly, Tam Truong; Al Suwaidi, Jassim Mohd; Al-Qahtani, Awad; Asaad, Nidal; Fung, Tak; Singh, Rajvir; Qader, Najlaa Abdul

2016-01-01

Objectives Depression is associated with increased morbidity and mortality rates among cardiovascular patients. Depressed patients have three times higher risk of death than those who are not. We sought to determine the presence of depressive symptoms, and whether gender and age are associated with depression among Arab patients hospitalised with cardiac conditions in a Middle Eastern country. Setting Using a non-probability convenient sampling technique, a cross-sectional survey was conducted with 1000 Arab patients ≥20 years who were admitted to cardiology units between 2013 and 2014 at the Heart Hospital in Qatar. Patients were interviewed 3 days after admission following the cardiac event. Surveys included demographic and clinical characteristics, and the Arabic version of the Beck Depression Inventory Second Edition (BDI-II). Depression was assessed by BDI-II clinical classification scale. Results 15% of the patients had mild mood disturbance and 5% had symptoms of clinical depression. Twice as many females than males suffered from mild mood disturbance and clinical depression symptoms, the majority of females were in the age group 50 years and above, whereas males were in the age group 40–49 years. χ2 Tests and multivariate logistic regression analyses indicated that gender and age were statistically significantly related to depression (p<0.001 for all). Conclusions Older Arab women are more likely to develop mood disturbance and depression after being hospitalised with acute cardiac condition. Gender and age differences approach, and routine screening for depression should be conducted with all cardiovascular patients, especially for females in the older age groups. Mental health counselling should be available for all cardiovascular patients who exhibit depressive symptoms. PMID:27388362

Educational achievement among long-term survivors of congenital heart defects: a Danish population-based follow-up study.

PubMed

Olsen, Morten; Hjortdal, Vibeke E; Mortensen, Laust H; Christensen, Thomas D; Sørensen, Henrik T; Pedersen, Lars

2011-04-01

Congenital heart defect patients may experience neurodevelopmental impairment. We investigated their educational attainments from basic schooling to higher education. Using administrative databases, we identified all Danish patients with a cardiac defect diagnosis born from 1 January, 1977 to 1 January, 1991 and alive at age 13 years. As a comparison cohort, we randomly sampled 10 persons per patient. We obtained information on educational attainment from Denmark's Database for Labour Market Research. The study population was followed until achievement of educational levels, death, emigration, or 1 January, 2006. We estimated the hazard ratio of attaining given educational levels, conditional on completing preceding levels, using discrete-time Cox regression and adjusting for socio-economic factors. Analyses were repeated for a sub-cohort of patients and controls born at term and without extracardiac defects or chromosomal anomalies. We identified 2986 patients. Their probability of completing compulsory basic schooling was approximately 10% lower than that of control individuals (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.79, ranged from 0.75 to 0.82 0.79; 95% confidence interval: 0.75-0.82). Their subsequent probability of completing secondary school was lower than that of the controls, both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.80) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.80; 95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.86). The probability of attaining a higher degree, conditional on completion of youth education, was affected both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.01) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.92; 95% confidence interval: 0.79-1.07). The probability of educational attainment was reduced among long-term congenital heart defect survivors.

Using Dynamic Geometry Software for Teaching Conditional Probability with Area-Proportional Venn Diagrams

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radakovic, Nenad; McDougall, Douglas

2012-01-01

This classroom note illustrates how dynamic visualization can be used to teach conditional probability and Bayes' theorem. There are two features of the visualization that make it an ideal pedagogical tool in probability instruction. The first feature is the use of area-proportional Venn diagrams that, along with showing qualitative relationships,…

Aging in bacteria, immortality or not-a critical review.

PubMed

Gómez, José M G

2010-12-01

Bacteria were traditionally thought to have a symmetrical binary fission without a clear distinction between soma and germ-line, being thus considered as immortal biological entities. Yet it has been recently described that bacteria also undergo replicative aging (RA). That is, they exhibit finite replicative abilities under good conditions to growth. The apparently initial indistinguishability of sibling cells after cytokinesis is broken. After division, the daughter cell that inherits the "old" pole present in the "mother cell" progressively exhibits a decline in its proliferative capacity with increasing cell pole age. This is a clear hallmark and phenotypic manifestation of a bona fide RA phenomenon in toto. While the exact molecular mechanism(s) underlying to this lost of replicative potential are not yet fully understood, the "old pole cell" is considered as an aging parent that in a repeatedly manner is able to produce rejuvenated offspring which inherit a resetting of the biological clock. On the order hand, bacteria exhibit in addition to this "mandatory" RA the dubbed conditional senescence (CS). CS is defined as a decline in cellular viability observed in arrested-growing bacteria populations, a phenomenon apparently not related to RA under growing active conditions. To understand bacterial aging, it is necessary to put it within the sociality-multicellularity framework. This is a new conceptual paradigm that expresses the natural reality of the bacterial world. From this more ecological perspective these bacterial aging phenomena probably should represent an insurance/bethedging anticipative survival strategy. This is underpinned in a self-generation of an appropriate level of populational phenotypic diversity. That is, bacterial aging could be considered a communitarian adaptive response to cope with different environmental stresses and threats. I have highlighted the necessity to construct an integrative conceptual framework to achieve a unified view of bacteria aging to answer this fundamental question: what are the reasons of bacterial aging?

Inequality in oral health related to early and later life social conditions: a study of elderly in Norway and Sweden.

PubMed

Gülcan, Ferda; Ekbäck, Gunnar; Ordell, Sven; Lie, Stein Atle; Åstrøm, Anne Nordrehaug

2015-02-10

A life course perspective recognizes influences of socially patterned exposures on oral health across the life span. This study assessed the influence of early and later life social conditions on tooth loss and oral impacts on daily performances (OIDP) of people aged 65 and 70 years. Whether social inequalities in oral health changed after the usual age of retirement was also examined. In accordance with "the latent effect life course model", it was hypothesized that adverse early-life social conditions increase the risk of subsequent tooth loss and impaired OIDP, independent of later-life social conditions. Data were obtained from two cohorts studies conducted in Sweden and Norway. The 2007 and 2012 waves of the surveys were used for the present study. Early-life social conditions were measured in terms of gender, education and country of birth, and later-life social conditions were assessed by working status, marital status and size of social network. Logistic regression and Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) were used to analyse the data. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) was used to adjust estimates for missing responses and loss to follow-up. Early-life social conditions contributed to tooth loss and OIDP in each survey year and both countries independent of later-life social conditions. Lower education correlated positively with tooth loss, but did not influence OIDP. Foreign country of birth correlated positively with oral impacts in Sweden only. Later-life social conditions were the strongest predictors of tooth loss and OIDP across survey years and countries. GEE revealed significant interactions between social network and survey year, and between marital status and survey year on tooth loss. The results confirmed the latent effect life course model in that early and later life social conditions had independent effects on tooth loss and OIDP among the elderly in Norway and Sweden. Between age 65 and 70, inequalities in tooth loss related to marital status declined, and inequalities related to social network increased.

Statistical learning of action: the role of conditional probability.

PubMed

Meyer, Meredith; Baldwin, Dare

2011-12-01

Identification of distinct units within a continuous flow of human action is fundamental to action processing. Such segmentation may rest in part on statistical learning. In a series of four experiments, we examined what types of statistics people can use to segment a continuous stream involving many brief, goal-directed action elements. The results of Experiment 1 showed no evidence for sensitivity to conditional probability, whereas Experiment 2 displayed learning based on joint probability. In Experiment 3, we demonstrated that additional exposure to the input failed to engender sensitivity to conditional probability. However, the results of Experiment 4 showed that a subset of adults-namely, those more successful at identifying actions that had been seen more frequently than comparison sequences-were also successful at learning conditional-probability statistics. These experiments help to clarify the mechanisms subserving processing of intentional action, and they highlight important differences from, as well as similarities to, prior studies of statistical learning in other domains, including language.

Epidemiology of Munchausen syndrome by proxy, non-accidental poisoning, and non-accidental suffocation.

PubMed Central

McClure, R J; Davis, P M; Meadow, S R; Sibert, J R

1996-01-01

A two year prospective study was performed to determine the epidemiology of Munchausen syndrome by proxy, non-accidental poisoning, and non-accidental suffocation in the UK and the Republic of Ireland. Cases were notified to the British Paediatric Association Surveillance Unit from September 1992 to August 1994 if a formal case conference had been held for the first time during that period to discuss any of the above conditions. A total of 128 cases were identified: 55 suffered Munchausen syndrome by proxy alone, 15 poisoning, and 15 suffocation; 43 suffered more than one type of abuse. The majority of children were aged under 5 years, the median age being 20 months. On 85% of occasions the perpetrator was the child's mother. In 42% of families with more than one child, a sibling had previously suffered some form of abuse. Eighty five per cent of notifying paediatricians considered the probability of their diagnosis as virtually certain before a case conference was convened. The commonest drugs used to poison were anticonvulsants; opiates were the second commonest. Sixty eight children suffered severe illness of whom eight died. The combined annual incidence of these conditions in children aged under 16 years is at least 0.5/100,000, and for children aged under 1, at least 2.8/100,000. PMID:8813872

Modification of a three-way catalyst washcoat by aging: A study along the longitudinal axis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granados, M. López; Galisteo, F. Cabello; Mariscal, R.; Alifanti, M.; Gurbani, A.; Fierro, J. L. G.; Fernández-Ruíz, R.

2006-10-01

This work reports the research carried out by studying aliquots extracted at different axial coordinates from Three Way Catalyst (TWC) monoliths aged under real traffic conditions. Our study focused on the catalytic properties and on several chemical and physical effects caused in the Front and Rear monolith washcoat surfaces by vehicle aging after 60,000 km. Regarding the catalytic properties, all the used aliquots showed poorer activity than their corresponding fresh counterparts. The strongest deactivation was detected for NO and hydrocarbon conversion. CO conversion was less affected and the Rear monolith was as deactivated as the Front one. The characterisation techniques (TXRF, N 2 adsorption-desorption isotherms, XRD and H 2-TPR) detected - (i) the deposition of P, Zn and Pb; (ii) the formation of CePO 4 on account of the Ce from the washcoat; (iii) thermal sintering; (iv) inhibition of the reducibility of Ce oxides - as the main effects brought about by vehicle aging conditions. The deactivation observed at the beginning of the Front monolith was the result of a combination of the former effects. When moving downstream to higher axial coordinates, Pb accumulation and the loss of specific area appeared to be the only probable sources of deactivation.

[Tonsillopharyngitis outbreak caused by foodborne group A beta-hemolytic Streptococcus].

PubMed

Nieto Vera, Juan; Figueroa Murillo, Estrella; Cruz Calderón, María Victoria; Pérez Alonso, Aránzazu

2011-08-01

Although infrequent, some authors have reported outbreaks of foodborne tonsillopharyngitis. On May 11, 2010 a series of cases of tonsillopharyngitis among those attending a fellowship meeting on 8 March was notified to the Epidemiological Surveillance Network in Andalusia (SVEA). The aim of this study is to epidemiologically characterise the outbreak. Descriptive analysis of reported cases and case - control exposure to the implicated food. The variables taken into account were age, sex, symptoms and start date. Sources of information used were the records of the SVEA and individual digital report (DIRAYA). Frequencies and attack rates were calculated, and a Bayesian analysis for the comparison of difference in proportions of disease was carried out for a 95% probability or credibility range (IP). Among the 130 attendees at a communion 41 cases of tonsillopharyngitis (attack rate 31.5%) were detected, and in smears Group A Beta-Hemolytic Streptococcus was isolated. The most affected age group was the 25-44 year-olds, 16 (39,0%); 68.6% (24) female. The egg salad showed a probability greater than 80% P(Δ>0.10 and Δ>0.15) for a 95% IP of risk of disease after intake and a probability of having a lower risk of no disease. It was a Group A Beta-Hemolytic Streptococcal outbreak, the epidemiological evidence indicates exposure to common single source, hence the hypothesis of dietary origin, the implicated food was egg salad. Contributing factors could be cross-contamination after preparation favoured by the bad practice and the conditions of the place.

The influence of exercise during growth on ultrasonographic parameters of the superficial digital flexor tendon of young Thoroughbred horses.

PubMed

Moffat, P A; Firth, E C; Rogers, C W; Smith, R K W; Barneveld, A; Goodship, A E; Kawcak, C E; McIlwraith, C W; van Weeren, P R

2008-03-01

Conditioning by early training may influence the composition of certain musculoskeletal tissues, but very few data exist on its effect during growth on tendon structure and function. To investigate whether conditioning exercise in young foals would lead to any ultrasonographically detectable damage to the superficial digital flexor tendon or an increase in cross-sectional area (CSA). Thirty-three Thoroughbred foals reared at pasture were allocated to 2 groups: control (PASTEX) allowed exercise freely at pasture; and CONDEX, also at pasture, began conditioning exercise from mean age 21 days over 1030 m on a purpose-built oval grass track, for 5 days/week until mean age 18 months. Foals were observed daily, and underwent orthopaedic examination monthly. Ultrasonographic images of the superficial digital flexor tendon (SDFT) at the mid-metacarpal level of both forelimbs were obtained in all foals at ages 5, 8, 12, 15 and 18 months. CSA was validated (r(2) = 0.89) by determining CSA from digital photographs of the transected SDFT surface from 12 of the horses necropsied at age 17.1 months. here was no clinical or ultrasonographic evidence of tendonopathy in either group and the greatest increase in mean CSA in both groups occurred between age 5 and 8 months. Across all age categories, there was no significant difference in mean CSA between the left and right limbs, or colts and fillies; there was a trend towards a larger CSA in the CONDEX group (P = 0.058). There was no conclusive evidence for a structural adaptive hypertrophy of the SDFT, probably because the regimen was insufficiently rigorous or because spontaneous pasture exercise may induce maximal development of energy storing tendons. A moderate amount of early conditioning exercise against a background of constant exercise at pasture is not harmful to the development of the flexor tendons.

Genetic evaluation of weaning weight and probability of lambing at 1 year of age in Targhee lambs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of this study was to investigate genetic control of 120-day weaning weight and the probability of lambing at 1 year of age in Targhee ewe lambs. Records of 5,967 ewe lambs born from 1989 to 2012 and first exposed to rams for breeding at approximately 7 months of age were analyzed. Reco...

Ulnar metaphyseal osteochondrosis in seven captive bred cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus).

PubMed

Allan, Graeme; Portas, Timothy; Bryant, Benn; Howlett, Rolfe; Blyde, David

2008-01-01

Distal ulna metaphyseal osteochondrosis was identified in seven captive bred cheetahs raised in Australia between 1984 and 2005. The disorder was characterized by bilateral carpal valgus conformation. In the metaphyseal region of the distal ulnae, an osteolucent defect that appeared as a proximal extension of the lucent physis was identified radiographically between 6 and 10 months of age. Ulna ostectomy was done to correct the angular limb deformity. Histologically, changes were identified in the osteolucent lesion that resembled osteochondrosis. We propose that the condition is probably familial and/or dietary in origin.

Psychological and Social Risk Factors in Adolescent Smoking Transitions: A Population-Based Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Bricker, Jonathan B.; Rajan, K. Bharat; Zalewski, Maureen; Andersen, M. Robyn; Ramey, Madelaine; Peterson, Arthur V.

2009-01-01

Objective This study longitudinally investigated psychological and social risk factors consistent with the Theory of Triadic Influence (TTI) as predictors of adolescent smoking transitions. Design Among 4218 adolescents, five psychological risk factors (i.e., parent-noncompliance, friend-compliance, rebelliousness, low achievement motivation, and thrill seeking) were assessed in 9th grade (age 14), two social influence risk factors (i.e., parents’ and close friends’ smoking) were assessed in grades 3 (age 8) and 9 (age 14), respectively. Main Outcome Measures Adolescent smoking transitions occurring between the 9th and 12th (ages 14–17) grade interval. Results There was a 22–27% probability contributed by scoring high on each of these psychological risk factors to the overall probability that an adolescent would try smoking. For predicting trying smoking, the probability contributed by these psychological factors was greater than the probability contributed by each parent’s and close friend’s smoking. Parent-compliance had a higher contribution to the probability of trying smoking when an adolescent’s parent smoked (p < .05), while friend-compliance had a higher contribution to the probability of trying smoking when an adolescent’s friend smoked (p<.001). Conclusion These psychological and social factors have an important influence on adolescent smoking transitions. Implications for TTI and smoking prevention interventions are discussed. PMID:19594268

Calyptogena-cemented rocks and concretions from the eastern part of Nankai accretionary prism: Age and geochemistry of uranium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lalou, Claude; Fontugne, Michel; Lallemand, Serge E.; Lauriat-Rage, Agnès

1992-04-01

Calyptogena valves included in a carbonate-rich cement, and fragments of a carbonate-rich chimney, have been examined for their stable isotopic (C and O) composition,14C activity and uranium series disequilibrium. The fossil shells were formed essentially with seawater carbon and a negligible contribution of cold seepage organic carbon, as shown by theirδ13C values. This allows the14C method to be used to determine their age. A fairly good concordance between the14C and230Th234U ages of the youngest shells gives confidence in the dating of the older samples using the latter technique. Thus, theCalyptogena are dated at ca. 150,000 and 20,000 yrs B.P. They have been preserved from dissolution by rapid cementation by a supersaturated carbonate solution. The cement is especially rich in uranium (as high as 75 ppm), whose source is seawater; the enrichment is due to local reducing conditions brought about by the bacterial decomposition of the soft tissues of the bivalves shortly after death. TheCalyptogena that probably developed between these two events (the events of ca. 20,000 and 150,000 yrs) have not been preserved from dissolution because, as is presently the case, the cold seepages were undersaturated with calcium carbonate. The two events probably represent periods of intense fluid venting connected with tectonic activity.

[Effects of prefrontal ablations on the reaction of the active choice of feeder under different probability and value of the reinforcement on dog].

PubMed

Preobrazhenskaia, L A; Ioffe, M E; Mats, V N

2004-01-01

The role of the prefrontal cortex was investigated on the reaction of the active choice of the two feeders under changes value and probability reinforcement. The experiments were performed on 2 dogs with prefrontal ablation (g. proreus). Before the lesions the dogs were taught to receive food in two different feeders to conditioned stimuli with equally probable alimentary reinforcement. After ablation in the inter-trial intervals the dogs were running from the one feeder to another. In the answer to conditioned stimuli for many times the dogs choose the same feeder. The disturbance of the behavior after some times completely restored. In the experiments with competition of probability events and values of reinforcement the dogs chose the feeder with low-probability but better quality of reinforcement. In the experiments with equal value but different probability the intact dogs chose the feeder with higher probability. In our experiments the dogs with prefrontal lesions chose the each feeder equiprobably. Thus in condition of free behavior one of different functions of the prefrontal cortex is the reactions choose with more probability of reinforcement.

The Context Matters: Outcome Probability and Expectation Mismatch Modulate the Feedback Negativity When Self-Evaluation of Response Correctness Is Possible

PubMed Central

Leue, Anja; Cano Rodilla, Carmen; Beauducel, André

2015-01-01

Individuals typically evaluate whether their performance and the obtained feedback match. Previous research has shown that feedback negativity (FN) depends on outcome probability and feedback valence. It is, however, less clear to what extent previous effects of outcome probability on FN depend on self-evaluations of response correctness. Therefore, we investigated the effects of outcome probability on FN amplitude in a simple go/no-go task that allowed for the self-evaluation of response correctness. We also investigated effects of performance incompatibility and feedback valence. In a sample of N = 22 participants, outcome probability was manipulated by means of precues, feedback valence by means of monetary feedback, and performance incompatibility by means of feedback that induced a match versus mismatch with individuals' performance. We found that the 100% outcome probability condition induced a more negative FN following no-loss than the 50% outcome probability condition. The FN following loss was more negative in the 50% compared to the 100% outcome probability condition. Performance-incompatible loss resulted in a more negative FN than performance-compatible loss. Our results indicate that the self-evaluation of the correctness of responses should be taken into account when the effects of outcome probability and expectation mismatch on FN are investigated. PMID:26783525

The Context Matters: Outcome Probability and Expectation Mismatch Modulate the Feedback Negativity When Self-Evaluation of Response Correctness Is Possible.

PubMed

Leue, Anja; Cano Rodilla, Carmen; Beauducel, André

2015-01-01

Individuals typically evaluate whether their performance and the obtained feedback match. Previous research has shown that feedback negativity (FN) depends on outcome probability and feedback valence. It is, however, less clear to what extent previous effects of outcome probability on FN depend on self-evaluations of response correctness. Therefore, we investigated the effects of outcome probability on FN amplitude in a simple go/no-go task that allowed for the self-evaluation of response correctness. We also investigated effects of performance incompatibility and feedback valence. In a sample of N = 22 participants, outcome probability was manipulated by means of precues, feedback valence by means of monetary feedback, and performance incompatibility by means of feedback that induced a match versus mismatch with individuals' performance. We found that the 100% outcome probability condition induced a more negative FN following no-loss than the 50% outcome probability condition. The FN following loss was more negative in the 50% compared to the 100% outcome probability condition. Performance-incompatible loss resulted in a more negative FN than performance-compatible loss. Our results indicate that the self-evaluation of the correctness of responses should be taken into account when the effects of outcome probability and expectation mismatch on FN are investigated.

Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Mosher, David C.; Shipp, Craig; Moscardelli, Lorena; Chaytor, Jason D.; Baxter, Christopher D. P.; Lee, Homa J.; Urgeles, Roger

2010-01-01

The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual events as well as the open time intervals before and after the observed sequence of landslides. For observed sequences of submarine landslides, we typically only have the age date of the youngest event and possibly of a seismic horizon that lies below the oldest event in a landslide sequence. We use an empirical Bayes analysis based on the Poisson-Gamma conjugate prior model specifically applied to the landslide probability problem. This model assumes that landslide events as imaged in geophysical data are independent and occur in time according to a Poisson distribution characterized by a rate parameter λ. With this method, we are able to estimate the most likely value of λ and, importantly, the range of uncertainty in this estimate. Examples considered include landslide sequences observed in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and in Port Valdez, Alaska. We confirm that given the uncertainties of age dating that landslide complexes can be treated as single events by performing statistical test of age dates representing the main failure episode of the Holocene Storegga landslide complex.

The Probability of Neonatal Respiratory Distress Syndrome as a Function of Gestational Age and Lecithin/Sphingomyelin Ratio

PubMed Central

St. Clair, Caryn; Norwitz, Errol R.; Woensdregt, Karlijn; Cackovic, Michael; Shaw, Julia A.; Malkus, Herbert; Ehrenkranz, Richard A.; Illuzzi, Jessica L.

2011-01-01

We sought to define the risk of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) as a function of both lecithin/sphingomyelin (L/S) ratio and gestational age. Amniotic fluid L/S ratio data were collected from consecutive women undergoing amniocentesis for fetal lung maturity at Yale-New Haven Hospital from January 1998 to December 2004. Women were included in the study if they delivered a live-born, singleton, nonanomalous infant within 72 hours of amniocentesis. The probability of RDS was modeled using multivariate logistic regression with L/S ratio and gestational age as predictors. A total of 210 mother-neonate pairs (8 RDS, 202 non-RDS) met criteria for analysis. Both gestational age and L/S ratio were independent predictors of RDS. A probability of RDS of 3% or less was noted at an L/S ratio cutoff of ≥3.4 at 34 weeks, ≥2.6 at 36 weeks, ≥1.6 at 38 weeks, and ≥1.2 at term. Under 34 weeks of gestation, the prevalence of RDS was so high that a probability of 3% or less was not observed by this model. These data describe a means of stratifying the probability of neonatal RDS using both gestational age and the L/S ratio and may aid in clinical decision making concerning the timing of delivery. PMID:18773379

Influence of level of education on disability free life expectancy by sex: the ILSA study.

PubMed

Minicuci, N; Noale, M

2005-12-01

To assess the effect of education on Disability Free Life Expectancy among older Italians, using a hierarchical model as indicator of disability, with estimates based on the multistate life table method and IMaCh software. Data were obtained from the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging which considered a random sample of 5632 individuals. Total life expectancy ranged from 16.5 years for men aged 65 years to 6 years for men aged 80. The age range for women was 19.6 and 8.4 years, respectively. For both sexes, increasing age was associated with a lower probability of recovery from a mild state of disability, with a greater probability of worsening for all individuals presenting an independent state at baseline, and with a greater probability of dying except for women from a mild state of disability. A medium/high educational level was associated with a greater probability of recovery only in men with a mild state of disability at baseline, and with a lower probability of worsening in both sexes, except for men with a mild state of disability at baseline. The positive effects of high education are well established in most research work and, being a modifiable factor, strategies focused on increasing level of education and, hence strengthening access to information and use of health services would produce significant benefits.

Mortality of American alligators attributed to cannibalism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delany, Michael F.; Woodward, Allan R.; Kiltie, Richard A.; Moore, Clinton T.

2011-01-01

Mortality of juvenile (Alligator mississippiensis) attributed to cannibalism on Orange Lake, Florida was examined. Alligator web tags used in mark–recapture studies were found in 12% of 267 stomachs sampled from alligators ≥168 cm TL. Captive alligators retained 76% of force-fed tags during a 588-d tag-retention trial. Models relating the probability of tag recovery to the annual probabilities of juvenile survival, cannibalism, tag retention, adult survival, and adult harvest suggested that cannibalism may on average remove 6–7% of the juvenile alligator population annually. Vulnerability continued to 140 cm TL (age 6–8 yr). Cannibalism of juveniles may serve to regulate the alligator population on Orange Lake. Alligator cannibalism may vary widely among populations, depending on demography and environmental conditions. The role and importance of cannibalism in alligator population dynamics should be more fully assessed and environmental and population factors that influence cannibalism identified to better evaluate management programs.

Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India.

PubMed

Delavande, Adeline; Lee, Jinkook; Menon, Seetha

2017-04-01

We examine several methodological considerations when eliciting probabilistic expectations in a developing country context using the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI). We conclude that although, on average, individuals are able to understand the concept of probability, responses are sensitive to framing effects and to own versus hypothetical-person effects. We find that overall, people are pessimistic about their survival probabilities compared with state-specific life tables and that socioeconomic status does influence beliefs about own survival expectations as found in previous literature in other countries. Higher levels of education and income have a positive association with survival expectations, and these associations persist even when conditioning on self-reported health. The results remain robust to several alternative specifications. We then compare the survival measures with objective measures of health. We find that activities of daily life, height, and low hemoglobin levels covary with subjective expectations in expected directions.

Effect of Physician Delegation to Other Healthcare Providers on the Quality of Care for Geriatric Conditions.

PubMed

Lichtenstein, Brian J; Reuben, David B; Karlamangla, Arun S; Han, Weijuan; Roth, Carol P; Wenger, Neil S

2015-10-01

The quality of care of older adults in the United States has been consistently shown to be inadequate. This gap between recommended and actual care provides an opportunity to improve the value of health care for older adults. Prior work from the Assessing Care of Vulnerable Elders (ACOVE) investigators first defined, and then sought to improve, clinical practice for common geriatric conditions. A critical component of the ACOVE intervention for practice improvement was an emphasis on the delegation of specific care processes, but the independent effect of delegation on the quality of care has not been evaluated. This study analyzed the pooled results of prior ACOVE projects from 1998 to 2010. Totaled, these studies included 4,776 individuals aged 65 and older of mixed demographic backgrounds and 16,204 ACOVE quality indicators (QIs) for three geriatric conditions: falls, urinary incontinence, and dementia. In unadjusted analyses, QI pass probabilities were 0.36 for physician-performed tasks, 0.55 for nurse practitioner (NP)-, physician assistant (PA)-, and registered nurse (RN)-performed tasks; and 0.61 for medical assistant- and licensed vocational nurse-performed tasks. In multiply adjusted models, the independent pass-probability effect of delegation to NPs, PAs, and RNs was 1.37 (P = .05). These findings suggest that delegation of selected tasks to nonphysician healthcare providers is associated with higher quality of care for these geriatric conditions in community practices and supports the value of interdisciplinary team management for common outpatient conditions in older adults. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

On Singularities and Black Holes in Combination-Driven Models of Technological Innovation Networks

PubMed Central

Solé, Ricard; Amor, Daniel R.; Valverde, Sergi

2016-01-01

It has been suggested that innovations occur mainly by combination: the more inventions accumulate, the higher the probability that new inventions are obtained from previous designs. Additionally, it has been conjectured that the combinatorial nature of innovations naturally leads to a singularity: at some finite time, the number of innovations should diverge. Although these ideas are certainly appealing, no general models have been yet developed to test the conditions under which combinatorial technology should become explosive. Here we present a generalised model of technological evolution that takes into account two major properties: the number of previous technologies needed to create a novel one and how rapidly technology ages. Two different models of combinatorial growth are considered, involving different forms of ageing. When long-range memory is used and thus old inventions are available for novel innovations, singularities can emerge under some conditions with two phases separated by a critical boundary. If the ageing has a characteristic time scale, it is shown that no singularities will be observed. Instead, a “black hole” of old innovations appears and expands in time, making the rate of invention creation slow down into a linear regime. PMID:26821277

On Singularities and Black Holes in Combination-Driven Models of Technological Innovation Networks.

PubMed

Solé, Ricard; Amor, Daniel R; Valverde, Sergi

2016-01-01

It has been suggested that innovations occur mainly by combination: the more inventions accumulate, the higher the probability that new inventions are obtained from previous designs. Additionally, it has been conjectured that the combinatorial nature of innovations naturally leads to a singularity: at some finite time, the number of innovations should diverge. Although these ideas are certainly appealing, no general models have been yet developed to test the conditions under which combinatorial technology should become explosive. Here we present a generalised model of technological evolution that takes into account two major properties: the number of previous technologies needed to create a novel one and how rapidly technology ages. Two different models of combinatorial growth are considered, involving different forms of ageing. When long-range memory is used and thus old inventions are available for novel innovations, singularities can emerge under some conditions with two phases separated by a critical boundary. If the ageing has a characteristic time scale, it is shown that no singularities will be observed. Instead, a "black hole" of old innovations appears and expands in time, making the rate of invention creation slow down into a linear regime.

What shall I do now? State-dependent variations of life-history traits with aging in Wandering Albatrosses.

PubMed

Pardo, Deborah; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2014-02-01

Allocation decisions depend on an organism's condition which can change with age. Two opposite changes in life-history traits are predicted in the presence of senescence: either an increase in breeding performance in late age associated with terminal investment or a decrease due to either life-history trade-offs between current breeding and future survival or decreased efficiency at old age. Age variation in several life-history traits has been detected in a number of species, and demographic performances of individuals in a given year are influenced by their reproductive state the previous year. Few studies have, however, examined state-dependent variation in life-history traits with aging, and they focused mainly on a dichotomy of successful versus failed breeding and non-breeding birds. Using a 50-year dataset on the long-lived quasi-biennial breeding wandering albatross, we investigated variations in life-history traits with aging according to a gradient of states corresponding to potential costs of reproduction the previous year (in ascending order): non-breeding birds staying at sea or present at breeding grounds, breeding birds that failed early, late or were successful. We used multistate models to study survival and decompose reproduction into four components (probabilities of return, breeding, hatching, and fledging), while accounting for imperfect detection. Our results suggest the possible existence of two strategies in the population: strict biennial breeders that exhibited almost no reproductive senescence and quasi-biennial breeders that showed an increased breeding frequency with a strong and moderate senescence on hatching and fledging probabilities, respectively. The patterns observed on survival were contrary to our predictions, suggesting an influence of individual quality rather than trade-offs between reproduction and survival at late ages. This work represents a step further into understanding the evolutionary ecology of senescence and its relationship with costs of reproduction at the population level. It paves the way for individual-based studies that could show the importance of intra-population heterogeneity in those processes.

Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

2016-06-01

Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

Incidence of Lower Respiratory Tract Infections and Atopic Conditions in Boys and Young Male Adults: Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre Annual Report 2015-2016.

PubMed

de Lusignan, Simon; Correa, Ana; Pebody, Richard; Yonova, Ivelina; Smith, Gillian; Byford, Rachel; Pathirannehelage, Sameera Rankiri; McGee, Christopher; Elliot, Alex J; Hriskova, Mariya; Ferreira, Filipa Im; Rafi, Imran; Jones, Simon

2018-04-30

The Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre comprises more than 150 general practices, with a combined population of more than 1.5 million, contributing to UK and European public health surveillance and research. The aim of this paper was to report gender differences in the presentation of infectious and respiratory conditions in children and young adults. Disease incidence data were used to test the hypothesis that boys up to puberty present more with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and asthma. Incidence rates were reported for infectious conditions in children and young adults by gender. We controlled for ethnicity, deprivation, and consultation rates. We report odds ratios (OR) with 95% CI, P values, and probability of presenting. Boys presented more with LRTI, largely due to acute bronchitis. The OR of males consulting was greater across the youngest 3 age bands (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.35-1.87; OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.05-1.21; OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.09-1.32). Allergic rhinitis and asthma had a higher OR of presenting in boys aged 5 to 14 years (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.37-1.68; OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.17-1.48). Upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) and urinary tract infection (UTI) had lower odds of presenting in boys, especially those older than 15 years. The probability of presenting showed different patterns for LRTI, URTI, and atopic conditions. Boys younger than 15 years have greater odds of presenting with LRTI and atopic conditions, whereas girls may present more with URTI and UTI. These differences may provide insights into disease mechanisms and for health service planning. ©Simon de Lusignan, Ana Correa, Richard Pebody, Ivelina Yonova, Gillian Smith, Rachel Byford, Sameera Rankiri Pathirannehelage, Christopher McGee, Alex J. Elliot, Mariya Hriskova, Filipa IM Ferreira, Imran Rafi, Simon Jones. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 30.04.2018.

Relative ages of lava flows at Alba Patera, Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schneeberger, Dale M.; Pieri, David C.

1987-01-01

Many large lava flows on the flanks of Alba Patera are astonishing in their volume and length. As a suite, these flows suggest tremendously voluminous and sustained eruptions, and provide dimensional boundary conditions typically a factor of 100 larger than terrestrial flows. One of the most striking features associated with Alba Patera is the large, radially oriented lava flows that exhibit a variety of flow morphologies. These include sheet flows, tube fed and tube channel flows, and undifferentiated flows. Three groups of flows were studied; flows on the northwest flank, southeast flank, and the intracaldera region. The lava flows discussed probably were erupted as a group during the same major volcanic episode as suggested by the data presented. Absolute ages are poorly constrained for both the individual flows and shield, due in part to disagreement as to which absolute age curve is representative for Mars. A relative age sequence is implied but lacks precision due to the closeness of the size frequency curves.

Encounter risk analysis of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration in the irrigation district

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jinping; Lin, Xiaomin; Zhao, Yong; Hong, Yang

2017-09-01

Rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration are random but mutually affected variables in the irrigation district, and their encounter situation can determine water shortage risks under the contexts of natural water supply and demand. However, in reality, the rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration may have different marginal distributions and their relations are nonlinear. In this study, based on the annual rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration data series from 1970 to 2013 in the Luhun irrigation district of China, the joint probability distribution of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration are developed with the Frank copula function. Using the joint probability distribution, the synchronous-asynchronous encounter risk, conditional joint probability, and conditional return period of different combinations of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration are analyzed. The results show that the copula-based joint probability distributions of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration are reasonable. The asynchronous encounter probability of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration is greater than their synchronous encounter probability, and the water shortage risk associated with meteorological drought (i.e. rainfall variability) is more prone to appear. Compared with other states, there are higher conditional joint probability and lower conditional return period in either low rainfall or high reference crop evapotranspiration. For a specifically high reference crop evapotranspiration with a certain frequency, the encounter risk of low rainfall and high reference crop evapotranspiration is increased with the decrease in frequency. For a specifically low rainfall with a certain frequency, the encounter risk of low rainfall and high reference crop evapotranspiration is decreased with the decrease in frequency. When either the high reference crop evapotranspiration exceeds a certain frequency or low rainfall does not exceed a certain frequency, the higher conditional joint probability and lower conditional return period of various combinations likely cause a water shortage, but the water shortage is not severe.

Overuse of EEG in the evaluation of common neurologic conditions.

PubMed

Matoth, Israel; Taustein, Ilana; Kay, Barrie S; Shapira, Yehuda A

2002-11-01

The objective of the present study was to analyze the diagnostic indications that most often prompt the referral of children and adolescents in the outpatient clinical pediatric practice for electroencephalographic evaluation and to check its utility in these clinical conditions. The electroencephalographic records of 547 consecutive children and adolescents (5-16 years of age) referred to a single community laboratory for the evaluation of various neurologic disorders were prospectively read by a single blinded investigator. Common diagnostic indications included the following: clinical seizures (42%), attention-deficit-hyperactivity disorder (23%), headaches (10.4%), syncope (9.9%), and tic disorder (4.9%). Overall, 76% of records were normal. Slowing of electroencephalographic activity was noted in 1% (attention-deficit-hyperactivity disorder) to 26% (probable epilepsy), and epileptiform activity in 53% of the probable and 29% of the clinically possible epileptics. Epileptiform activity was rarely found in the nonepileptic patients. The results of the present study demonstrate that standard interictal electroencephalogram is being overused during evaluation of various neurologic disorders in children and adolescents, suggesting that its use should be reserved for supporting the diagnosis in those cases in which epilepsy is a reasonable clinical possibility.

The Association Between Unhealthy Alcohol Use and Acute Care Expenditures in the 30 Days Following Hospital Discharge Among Older Veterans Affairs Patients with a Medical Condition.

PubMed

Chavez, Laura J; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Tefft, Nathan; Hebert, Paul L; Devine, Beth; Bradley, Katharine A

2017-10-01

Hospital readmissions and emergency department (ED) visits within 30 days of discharge are costly. Heavy alcohol use could predict increased risk for post-discharge acute care. This study assessed 30-day acute care utilization and expenditures for different categories of alcohol use. Veterans Affairs (VA) patients age ≥65 years with past-year alcohol screening, hospitalized for a medical condition, were included. VA and Medicare health care utilization data were used. Two-part models adjusted for patient demographics. Among 416,050 hospitalized patients, 25% had 30-day acute care use. Nondrinking patients (n = 267,746) had increased probability of acute care use, mean utilization days, and expenditures (difference of $345; 95% CI $268-$423), relative to low-risk drinkers (n = 105,023). High-risk drinking patients (n = 5,300) had increased probability of acute care use and mean utilization days, but not expenditures. Although these patients did not have greater acute care expenditures than low-risk drinking patients, they may nevertheless be vulnerable to poor post-discharge outcomes.

The combined effect of age and basal follicle-stimulating hormone on the cost of a live birth at assisted reproductive technology.

PubMed

Henne, Melinda B; Stegmann, Barbara J; Neithardt, Adrienne B; Catherino, William H; Armstrong, Alicia Y; Kao, Tzu-Cheg; Segars, James H

2008-01-01

To predict the cost of a delivery following assisted reproductive technologies (ART). Cost analysis based on retrospective chart analysis. University-based ART program. Women aged >or=26 and

Association between Periodontal Condition and Nutritional Status of Brazilian Adolescents: A Population-based Study.

PubMed

Cavalcanti, Alessandro L; Ramos, Ianny A; Cardoso, Andreia M R; Fernandes, Liege Helena F; Aragão, Amanda S; Santos, Fábio G; Aguiar, Yêska P C; Carvalho, Danielle F; Medeiros, Carla C M; De S C Soares, Renata; Castro, Ricardo D

2016-12-01

Obesity is a serious problem of public health and affects all socio-economic groups, irrespective of age, sex or ethnicity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between periodontal condition and nutritional status of adolescents. This was a cross-sectional study using a probability cluster sampling, and the sample was defined by statistical criterion, consisting of 559 students aged 15-19 yr enrolled in public schools of adolescents of Campina Grande, PB, Brazil in 2012. Socioeconomic characteristics were analyzed, as well as self-reported general and oral health, anthropometric data and periodontal condition (CPI and OHI-S). Descriptive and analytical analysis from bivariate and multivariate Poisson regression analysis with 5% significance level was performed. Of the 559 adolescents, 18.6% were overweight and 98.4% had some form of periodontal changes such as: bleeding (34.3%), calculus (38.8%), shallow pocket (22.9%) and deep pocket (2.3%). There was association between presence of periodontal changes with obesity ( P <0.05; CI 95%: 0.99 [0.98 - 0.99]). The association between presence of periodontal changes and obesity status in adolescents was indicated.

Association between Periodontal Condition and Nutritional Status of Brazilian Adolescents: A Population-based Study

PubMed Central

CAVALCANTI, Alessandro L.; RAMOS, Ianny A.; CARDOSO, Andreia M. R.; FERNANDES, Liege Helena F.; ARAGÃO, Amanda S.; SANTOS, Fábio G.; AGUIAR, Yêska P. C.; CARVALHO, Danielle F.; MEDEIROS, Carla C. M.; De S. C. SOARES, Renata; CASTRO, Ricardo D.

2016-01-01

Background: Obesity is a serious problem of public health and affects all socio-economic groups, irrespective of age, sex or ethnicity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between periodontal condition and nutritional status of adolescents. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study using a probability cluster sampling, and the sample was defined by statistical criterion, consisting of 559 students aged 15–19 yr enrolled in public schools of adolescents of Campina Grande, PB, Brazil in 2012. Socioeconomic characteristics were analyzed, as well as self-reported general and oral health, anthropometric data and periodontal condition (CPI and OHI-S). Descriptive and analytical analysis from bivariate and multivariate Poisson regression analysis with 5% significance level was performed. Results: Of the 559 adolescents, 18.6% were overweight and 98.4% had some form of periodontal changes such as: bleeding (34.3%), calculus (38.8%), shallow pocket (22.9%) and deep pocket (2.3%). There was association between presence of periodontal changes with obesity (P<0.05; CI 95%: 0.99 [0.98 – 0.99]). Conclusion: The association between presence of periodontal changes and obesity status in adolescents was indicated. PMID:28053924

Analysis of morphological characteristics and expression levels of extracellular matrix proteins in skin wounds to determine wound age in living subjects in forensic medicine.

PubMed

Fronczek, Judith; Lulf, Ronald; Korkmaz, H Ibrahim; Witte, Birgit I; van de Goot, Franklin R W; Begieneman, Mark P V; Krijnen, Paul A J; Rozendaal, Lawrence; Niessen, Hans W M; Reijnders, Udo J L

2015-01-01

Wound age determination in living subjects is important in routine diagnostics in forensic medicine. Macroscopical description of a wound to determine wound age however is inadequate. The aim of this study was to assess whether it would be feasible to determine wound age via analysis of morphological characteristics and extracellular matrix proteins in skin biopsies of living subjects referred to a forensic outpatient clinic. Skin biopsies (n=101), representing the border area of the wound, were taken from skin injuries of known wound age (range: 4.5h-25 days) in living subjects. All biopsies were analyzed for 3 morphological features (ulceration, parakeratosis and hemorrhage) and 3 extracellular matrix markers (collagen III, collagen IV and α-SMA). For quantification, biopsies were subdivided in 4 different timeframes: 0.2-2 days, 2-4 days, 4-10 days and 10-25 days old wounds. Subsequently, a probability scoring system was developed. For hemorrhage, collagen III, collagen IV and α-SMA expression no relation with wound age was found. Ulceration was only found in wounds of 0.2-2, 2-4 and 4-10 days old, implying that the probability that a wound was more than 10 days old in case of ulceration is equal to 0%. Also parakeratosis was almost exclusively found in wounds of 0.2-2, 2-4 and 4-10 days old, except for one case with a wound age of 15 days old. The probability scoring system of all analyzed markers, as depicted above, however can be used to calculate individual wound age probabilities in biopsies of skin wounds of living subjects. We have developed a probability scoring system, analysing morphological characteristics and extracellular matrix proteins in superficial skin biopsies of wounds in living subjects that can be applied in forensic medicine for wound age determination. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Ecological executive function characteristics and effects of executive function on social adaptive function in school-aged children with epilepsy].

PubMed

Xu, X J; Wang, L L; Zhou, N

2016-02-23

To explore the characteristics of ecological executive function in school-aged children with idiopathic or probably symptomatic epilepsy and examine the effects of executive function on social adaptive function. A total of 51 school-aged children with idiopathic or probably symptomatic epilepsy aged 5-12 years at our hospital and 37 normal ones of the same gender, age and educational level were included. The differences in ecological executive function and social adaptive function were compared between the two groups with the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF) and Child Adaptive Behavior Scale, the Pearson's correlation test and multiple stepwise linear regression were used to explore the impact of executive function on social adaptive function. The scores of school-aged children with idiopathic or probably symptomatic epilepsy in global executive composite (GEC), behavioral regulation index (BRI) and metacognition index (MI) of BRIEF ((62±12), (58±13) and (63±12), respectively) were significantly higher than those of the control group ((47±7), (44±6) and (48±8), respectively))(P<0.01). The scores of school-aged children with idiopathic or probably symptomatic epilepsy in adaptive behavior quotient (ADQ), independence, cognition, self-control ((86±22), (32±17), (49±14), (41±16), respectively) were significantly lower than those of the control group ((120±12), (59±14), (59±7) and (68±10), respectively))(P<0.01). Pearson's correlation test showed that the scores of BRIEF, such as GEC, BRI, MI, inhibition, emotional control, monitoring, initiation and working memory had significantly negative correlations with the score of ADQ, independence, self-control ((r=-0.313--0.741, P<0.05)). Also, GEC, inhibition, MI, initiation, working memory, plan, organization and monitoring had significantly negative correlations with the score of cognition ((r=-0.335--0.437, P<0.05)); Multiple stepwise linear regression analysis showed that BRI, inhibition and working memory were closely related with the social adaptive function of school-aged children with idiopathic or probably symptomatic epilepsy. School-aged children with idiopathic or probably symptomatic epilepsy may have significantly ecological executive function impairment and social adaptive function reduction. The aspects of BRI, inhibition and working memory in ecological executive function are significantly related with social adaptive function in school-aged children with epilepsy.

AUDIT-C scores as a scaled marker of mean daily drinking, alcohol use disorder severity, and probability of alcohol dependence in a U.S. general population sample of drinkers.

PubMed

Rubinsky, Anna D; Dawson, Deborah A; Williams, Emily C; Kivlahan, Daniel R; Bradley, Katharine A

2013-08-01

Brief alcohol screening questionnaires are increasingly used to identify alcohol misuse in routine care, but clinicians also need to assess the level of consumption and the severity of misuse so that appropriate intervention can be offered. Information provided by a patient's alcohol screening score might provide a practical tool for assessing the level of consumption and severity of misuse. This post hoc analysis of data from the 2001 to 2002 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) included 26,546 U.S. adults who reported drinking in the past year and answered additional questions about their consumption, including Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption questionnaire (AUDIT-C) alcohol screening. Linear or logistic regression models and postestimation methods were used to estimate mean daily drinking, the number of endorsed alcohol use disorder (AUD) criteria ("AUD severity"), and the probability of alcohol dependence associated with each individual AUDIT-C score (1 to 12), after testing for effect modification by gender and age. Among eligible past-year drinkers, mean daily drinking, AUD severity, and the probability of alcohol dependence increased exponentially across increasing AUDIT-C scores. Mean daily drinking ranged from < 0.1 to 18.0 drinks/d, AUD severity ranged from < 0.1 to 5.1 endorsed AUD criteria, and probability of alcohol dependence ranged from < 1 to 65% across scores 1 to 12. AUD severity increased more steeply across AUDIT-C scores among women than men. Both AUD severity and mean daily drinking increased more steeply across AUDIT-C scores among younger versus older age groups. Results of this study could be used to estimate patient-specific consumption and severity based on age, gender, and alcohol screening score. This information could be integrated into electronic decision support systems to help providers estimate and provide feedback about patient-specific risks and identify those patients most likely to benefit from further diagnostic assessment. Copyright © 2013 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Transition probabilities of health states for workers in Malaysia using a Markov chain model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samsuddin, Shamshimah; Ismail, Noriszura

2017-04-01

The aim of our study is to estimate the transition probabilities of health states for workers in Malaysia who contribute to the Employment Injury Scheme under the Social Security Organization Malaysia using the Markov chain model. Our study uses four states of health (active, temporary disability, permanent disability and death) based on the data collected from the longitudinal studies of workers in Malaysia for 5 years. The transition probabilities vary by health state, age and gender. The results show that men employees are more likely to have higher transition probabilities to any health state compared to women employees. The transition probabilities can be used to predict the future health of workers in terms of a function of current age, gender and health state.

Effects of Age and Working Memory Load on Syntactic Processing: An Event-Related Potential Study.

PubMed

Alatorre-Cruz, Graciela C; Silva-Pereyra, Juan; Fernández, Thalía; Rodríguez-Camacho, Mario A; Castro-Chavira, Susana A; Sanchez-Lopez, Javier

2018-01-01

Cognitive changes in aging include working memory (WM) decline, which may hamper language comprehension. An increase in WM demands in older adults would probably provoke a poorer sentence processing performance in this age group. A way to increase the WM load is to separate two lexical units in an agreement relation (i.e., adjective and noun), in a given sentence. To test this hypothesis, event-related potentials (ERPs) were collected from Spanish speakers (30 older adults, mean age = 66.06 years old; and 30 young adults, mean age = 25.7 years old) who read sentences to detect grammatical errors. The sentences varied with regard to (1) the gender agreement of the noun and adjective, where the gender of the adjective either agreed or disagreed with the noun, and (2) the WM load (i.e., the number of words between the noun and adjective in the sentence). No significant behavioral differences between groups were observed in the accuracy of the response, but older adults showed longer reaction times regardless of WM load condition. Compared with young participants, older adults showed a different pattern of ERP components characterized by smaller amplitudes of LAN, P600a, and P600b effects when the WM load was increased. A smaller LAN effect probably reflects greater difficulties in processing the morpho-syntactic features of the sentence, while smaller P600a and P600b effects could be related to difficulties in recovering and mapping all sentence constituents. We concluded that the ERP pattern in older adults showed subtle problems in syntactic processing when the WM load was increased, which was not sufficient to affect response accuracy but was only observed to result in a longer reaction time.

Age at first marriage, education and divorce: the case of the U.S.A..

PubMed

Perreira, P T

1991-01-01

"This paper presents an analysis of the determinants of the age of marriage and the probability of divorce among women in the United States." The author hypothesizes that the possibility of divorce enters into women's decision to marry. "As expected, empirical results indicate that in the United States, where it is easier to obtain divorce, women tend to marry earlier. Furthermore, Catholic women tend to marry later....Results seem to indicate the age at marriage and education should not be considered to be exogenous in the study of the probability of divorce. Another important result is that women who marry earlier...show a lower probability of divorce...." excerpt

Decomposition of conditional probability for high-order symbolic Markov chains.

PubMed

Melnik, S S; Usatenko, O V

2017-07-01

The main goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate on a decomposition procedure for the conditional probability function of sequences considered to be high-order Markov chains. We represent the conditional probability function as the sum of multilinear memory function monomials of different orders (from zero up to the chain order). This allows us to introduce a family of Markov chain models and to construct artificial sequences via a method of successive iterations, taking into account at each step increasingly high correlations among random elements. At weak correlations, the memory functions are uniquely expressed in terms of the high-order symbolic correlation functions. The proposed method fills the gap between two approaches, namely the likelihood estimation and the additive Markov chains. The obtained results may have applications for sequential approximation of artificial neural network training.

Decomposition of conditional probability for high-order symbolic Markov chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melnik, S. S.; Usatenko, O. V.

2017-07-01

The main goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate on a decomposition procedure for the conditional probability function of sequences considered to be high-order Markov chains. We represent the conditional probability function as the sum of multilinear memory function monomials of different orders (from zero up to the chain order). This allows us to introduce a family of Markov chain models and to construct artificial sequences via a method of successive iterations, taking into account at each step increasingly high correlations among random elements. At weak correlations, the memory functions are uniquely expressed in terms of the high-order symbolic correlation functions. The proposed method fills the gap between two approaches, namely the likelihood estimation and the additive Markov chains. The obtained results may have applications for sequential approximation of artificial neural network training.

New normative standards of conditional reasoning and the dual-source model

PubMed Central

Singmann, Henrik; Klauer, Karl Christoph; Over, David

2014-01-01

There has been a major shift in research on human reasoning toward Bayesian and probabilistic approaches, which has been called a new paradigm. The new paradigm sees most everyday and scientific reasoning as taking place in a context of uncertainty, and inference is from uncertain beliefs and not from arbitrary assumptions. In this manuscript we present an empirical test of normative standards in the new paradigm using a novel probabilized conditional reasoning task. Our results indicated that for everyday conditional with at least a weak causal connection between antecedent and consequent only the conditional probability of the consequent given antecedent contributes unique variance to predicting the probability of conditional, but not the probability of the conjunction, nor the probability of the material conditional. Regarding normative accounts of reasoning, we found significant evidence that participants' responses were confidence preserving (i.e., p-valid in the sense of Adams, 1998) for MP inferences, but not for MT inferences. Additionally, only for MP inferences and to a lesser degree for DA inferences did the rate of responses inside the coherence intervals defined by mental probability logic (Pfeifer and Kleiter, 2005, 2010) exceed chance levels. In contrast to the normative accounts, the dual-source model (Klauer et al., 2010) is a descriptive model. It posits that participants integrate their background knowledge (i.e., the type of information primary to the normative approaches) and their subjective probability that a conclusion is seen as warranted based on its logical form. Model fits showed that the dual-source model, which employed participants' responses to a deductive task with abstract contents to estimate the form-based component, provided as good an account of the data as a model that solely used data from the probabilized conditional reasoning task. PMID:24860516

New normative standards of conditional reasoning and the dual-source model.

PubMed

Singmann, Henrik; Klauer, Karl Christoph; Over, David

2014-01-01

There has been a major shift in research on human reasoning toward Bayesian and probabilistic approaches, which has been called a new paradigm. The new paradigm sees most everyday and scientific reasoning as taking place in a context of uncertainty, and inference is from uncertain beliefs and not from arbitrary assumptions. In this manuscript we present an empirical test of normative standards in the new paradigm using a novel probabilized conditional reasoning task. Our results indicated that for everyday conditional with at least a weak causal connection between antecedent and consequent only the conditional probability of the consequent given antecedent contributes unique variance to predicting the probability of conditional, but not the probability of the conjunction, nor the probability of the material conditional. Regarding normative accounts of reasoning, we found significant evidence that participants' responses were confidence preserving (i.e., p-valid in the sense of Adams, 1998) for MP inferences, but not for MT inferences. Additionally, only for MP inferences and to a lesser degree for DA inferences did the rate of responses inside the coherence intervals defined by mental probability logic (Pfeifer and Kleiter, 2005, 2010) exceed chance levels. In contrast to the normative accounts, the dual-source model (Klauer et al., 2010) is a descriptive model. It posits that participants integrate their background knowledge (i.e., the type of information primary to the normative approaches) and their subjective probability that a conclusion is seen as warranted based on its logical form. Model fits showed that the dual-source model, which employed participants' responses to a deductive task with abstract contents to estimate the form-based component, provided as good an account of the data as a model that solely used data from the probabilized conditional reasoning task.

Probable Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in the US Veteran Population According to DSM-5: Results From the National Health and Resilience in Veterans Study.

PubMed

Wisco, Blair E; Marx, Brian P; Miller, Mark W; Wolf, Erika J; Mota, Natalie P; Krystal, John H; Southwick, Steven M; Pietrzak, Robert H

2016-11-01

With the publication of DSM-5, important changes were made to the diagnostic criteria for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), including the addition of 3 new symptoms. Some have argued that these changes will further increase the already high rates of comorbidity between PTSD and other psychiatric disorders. This study examined the prevalence of DSM-5 PTSD, conditional probability of PTSD given certain trauma exposures, endorsement of specific PTSD symptoms, and psychiatric comorbidities in the US veteran population. Data were analyzed from the National Health and Resilience in Veterans Study (NHRVS), a Web-based survey of a cross-sectional, nationally representative, population-based sample of 1,484 US veterans, which was fielded from September through October 2013. Probable PTSD was assessed using the PTSD Checklist-5. The weighted lifetime and past-month prevalence of probable DSM-5 PTSD was 8.1% (SE = 0.7%) and 4.7% (SE = 0.6%), respectively. Conditional probability of lifetime probable PTSD ranged from 10.1% (sudden death of close family member or friend) to 28.0% (childhood sexual abuse). The DSM-5 PTSD symptoms with the lowest prevalence among veterans with probable PTSD were trauma-related amnesia and reckless and self-destructive behavior. Probable PTSD was associated with increased odds of mood and anxiety disorders (OR = 7.6-62.8, P < .001), substance use disorders (OR = 3.9-4.5, P < .001), and suicidal behaviors (OR = 6.7-15.1, P < .001). In US veterans, the prevalence of DSM-5 probable PTSD, conditional probability of probable PTSD, and odds of psychiatric comorbidity were similar to prior findings with DSM-IV-based measures; we found no evidence that changes in DSM-5 increase psychiatric comorbidity. Results underscore the high rates of exposure to both military and nonmilitary trauma and the high public health burden of DSM-5 PTSD and comorbid conditions in veterans. © Copyright 2016 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Equity and equality in the use of GP services for elderly people: the Spanish case.

PubMed

Crespo-Cebada, Eva; Urbanos-Garrido, Rosa M

2012-02-01

To present new evidence both on the horizontal inequity in the delivery of primary health care and on the factors driving inequalities in the use of GP services for Spanish population aged 50 years and over. Cross-sectional study based on the Spanish sample of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) for 2006-07. We use the index proposed by Wagstaff and van Doorslaer (HI(WV)) to compute health care inequity. The concentration index measuring income related inequality in health care use is decomposed into the contribution of each determinant. Our results show the presence of pro-poor inequality in both the access and the frequency of use for GP services, which is mainly explained by unequal distribution of need factors. The contribution of non-need factors to income related inequality is quite higher for the conditional number of GP visits (48.13%) than for the probability of positive use (17.55%). We have also found significant pro-poor inequity in the probability of access to a GP and in the conditional number of visits for elderly people. The relevance of social determinants of health is confirmed, and hence the need for wide-scoped public policies to reduce health inequalities. At equal levels of need, rich and poor elderly people are not treated equally. As much as appropriateness of care provided is unknown, we cannot conclude that inequity in GP services really favours the lower income individuals in terms of health gains. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical and sonographic risk factors and complications of shoulder dystocia - a case-control study with parity and gestational age matched controls.

PubMed

Parantainen, Jukka; Palomäki, Outi; Talola, Nina; Uotila, Jukka

2014-06-01

To examine the clinical risk factors and complications of shoulder dystocia today and to evaluate ultrasound methods predicting it. Retrospective, matched case-control study at a University Hospital with 5000 annual deliveries. The study population consisted of 152 deliveries complicated by shoulder dystocia over a period of 8.5 years (January 2004-June 2012) and 152 controls matched for gestational age and parity. The data was collected from the medical records of mothers and children and analyzed by conditional logistic regression. Incidences and odds ratios were calculated for risk factors and complications. Antenatal ultrasound data was analyzed when available by conditional logistic regression to test for significant differences between study groups. Birthweight (OR 12.1 for ≥4000 g; 95% CI 4.18-35.0) and vacuum extraction (OR 3.98; 95% CI 1.25-12.7) remained the most significant clinical risk factors. Only a trend of an association of pregestational or gestational diabetes was noticed (OR 1.87; 95% CI 0.997-3.495, probability of type II error 51%). Of the complications of shoulder dystocia the incidence of brachial plexus palsies was high (40%). Antenatal ultrasound method based on the difference between abdominal and biparietal diameters had a significant difference between cases and controls. The impact of diabetes as a risk factor has diminished, which may reflect improved screening and treatment. Antenatal ultrasound methods are showing some promise, but the predictive value of ultrasound alone is probably low. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Conditional survival analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with radiofrequency ablation.

PubMed

Facciorusso, Antonio; Del Prete, Valentina; Antonino, Matteo; Neve, Viviana; Amoruso, Annabianca; Crucinio, Nicola; Di Leo, Alfredo; Barone, Michele

2015-10-01

Survival estimates are commonly reported as survival from the first observation, but future survival probability changes based on the survival time already accumulated after therapy, otherwise known as conditional survival (CS). The aim of the study was to describe CS according to different prognostic variables in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with radiofrequency ablation (RFA). Data on 125 very early/early HCC patients treated with RFA between 1999 and 2007 were analyzed. Actuarial survival estimates were computed by means of Kaplan-Meier method and compared by log-rank test. The 5-year CS was calculated with stratification by several predictors for patients who had already survived up to 5 years from diagnosis. Median overall survival (OS) was 72 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 58-86). Age, Child-Pugh (CP), α-fetoprotein (AFP), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score and type of recurrence (early vs late) were significant predictors of OS. The 5-year CS rates of the entire study cohort assessed at 1, 2, 3 and 5 years from the treatment were 49%, 48%, 30% and 34%, respectively. Subgroup analysis confirmed age and CP as significant predictors of CS at all time points, while the CS of subgroups stratified by AFP and CLIP did not differ significantly from the 3rd year after RFA onward, as more advanced patients had probably escaped early recurrence. CS analysis showed that the impact of different variables influencing OS is not linear over time after RFA. Information derived from the study can improve the current management of HCC patients. © 2014 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

Whole-brain grey matter density predicts balance stability irrespective of age and protects older adults from falling.

PubMed

Boisgontier, Matthieu P; Cheval, Boris; van Ruitenbeek, Peter; Levin, Oron; Renaud, Olivier; Chanal, Julien; Swinnen, Stephan P

2016-03-01

Functional and structural imaging studies have demonstrated the involvement of the brain in balance control. Nevertheless, how decisive grey matter density and white matter microstructural organisation are in predicting balance stability, and especially when linked to the effects of ageing, remains unclear. Standing balance was tested on a platform moving at different frequencies and amplitudes in 30 young and 30 older adults, with eyes open and with eyes closed. Centre of pressure variance was used as an indicator of balance instability. The mean density of grey matter and mean white matter microstructural organisation were measured using voxel-based morphometry and diffusion tensor imaging, respectively. Mixed-effects models were built to analyse the extent to which age, grey matter density, and white matter microstructural organisation predicted balance instability. Results showed that both grey matter density and age independently predicted balance instability. These predictions were reinforced when the level of difficulty of the conditions increased. Furthermore, grey matter predicted balance instability beyond age and at least as consistently as age across conditions. In other words, for balance stability, the level of whole-brain grey matter density is at least as decisive as being young or old. Finally, brain grey matter appeared to be protective against falls in older adults as age increased the probability of losing balance in older adults with low, but not moderate or high grey matter density. No such results were observed for white matter microstructural organisation, thereby reinforcing the specificity of our grey matter findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Summary Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students’ understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference. PMID:25419016

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution.

PubMed

Dinov, Ivo D; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students' understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference.

Metocean design parameter estimation for fixed platform based on copula functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Jinjin; Yin, Qilin; Dong, Sheng

2017-08-01

Considering the dependent relationship among wave height, wind speed, and current velocity, we construct novel trivariate joint probability distributions via Archimedean copula functions. Total 30-year data of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity in the Bohai Sea are hindcast and sampled for case study. Four kinds of distributions, namely, Gumbel distribution, lognormal distribution, Weibull distribution, and Pearson Type III distribution, are candidate models for marginal distributions of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity. The Pearson Type III distribution is selected as the optimal model. Bivariate and trivariate probability distributions of these environmental conditions are established based on four bivariate and trivariate Archimedean copulas, namely, Clayton, Frank, Gumbel-Hougaard, and Ali-Mikhail-Haq copulas. These joint probability models can maximize marginal information and the dependence among the three variables. The design return values of these three variables can be obtained by three methods: univariate probability, conditional probability, and joint probability. The joint return periods of different load combinations are estimated by the proposed models. Platform responses (including base shear, overturning moment, and deck displacement) are further calculated. For the same return period, the design values of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity obtained by the conditional and joint probability models are much smaller than those by univariate probability. Considering the dependence among variables, the multivariate probability distributions provide close design parameters to actual sea state for ocean platform design.

Selective inspection planning with ageing forecast for sewer types.

PubMed

Baur, R; Herz, R

2002-01-01

Investments in sewer rehabilitation must be based on inspection and evaluation of sewer conditions with respect to the severity of sewer damage and to environmental risks. This paper deals with the problems of forecasting the condition of sewers in a network from a small sample of inspected sewers. Transition functions from one into the next poorer condition class, which were empirically derived from this sample, are used to forecast the condition of sewers. By the same procedure, transition functions were subsequently calibrated for sub-samples of different types of sewers. With these transition functions, the most probable date of entering a critical condition class can be forecast from sewer characteristics, such as material, period of construction, location, use for waste and/or storm water, profile, diameter and gradient. Results are shown for the estimates about the actual condition of the Dresden sewer network and its deterioration in case of doing nothing about it. A procedure is proposed for scheduling the inspection dates for sewers which have not yet been inspected and for those which have been inspected before.

Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

2004-01-01

We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

Targeting the probability versus cost of feared outcomes in public speaking anxiety.

PubMed

Nelson, Elizabeth A; Deacon, Brett J; Lickel, James J; Sy, Jennifer T

2010-04-01

Cognitive-behavioral theory suggests that social phobia is maintained, in part, by overestimates of the probability and cost of negative social events. Indeed, empirically supported cognitive-behavioral treatments directly target these cognitive biases through the use of in vivo exposure or behavioral experiments. While cognitive-behavioral theories and treatment protocols emphasize the importance of targeting probability and cost biases in the reduction of social anxiety, few studies have examined specific techniques for reducing probability and cost bias, and thus the relative efficacy of exposure to the probability versus cost of negative social events is unknown. In the present study, 37 undergraduates with high public speaking anxiety were randomly assigned to a single-session intervention designed to reduce either the perceived probability or the perceived cost of negative outcomes associated with public speaking. Compared to participants in the probability treatment condition, those in the cost treatment condition demonstrated significantly greater improvement on measures of public speaking anxiety and cost estimates for negative social events. The superior efficacy of the cost treatment condition was mediated by greater treatment-related changes in social cost estimates. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Robotic radical prostatectomy for elderly patients: probability of achieving continence and potency 1 year after surgery.

PubMed

Shikanov, Sergey; Desai, Vikas; Razmaria, Aria; Zagaja, Gregory P; Shalhav, Arieh L

2010-05-01

We assessed the probability of achieving continence and potency after robotic radical prostatectomy in elderly patients. The cohort included 1,436 robotic radical prostatectomy cases performed at our institution between 2003 and 2008. Continence (pad-free) and potency (erection sufficient for intercourse) at baseline and 1 year after surgery were evaluated by the UCLA-PCI questionnaire. Point estimates of the predicted probabilities of continence and potency for age 65, 70 and 75 years were calculated from multivariate logistic regression models adjusting for age, nerve sparing status, baseline International Prostate Symptom Score and baseline Sexual Health Inventory for Men score. Patients who were impotent before surgery or those who received hormones or radiation within 1 year after surgery were censored. Mean patient age was 60 years (range 38 to 85) with 25% older than 65 years and 77 (5%) 70 years old or older. Age (OR 0.97, p = 0.002), baseline I-PSS (OR 0.98, p = 0.02) and Sexual Health Inventory for Men scores (OR 1.02, p = 0.005) were independently associated with being pad-free. Age (OR 0.92, p <0.0001), baseline Sexual Health Inventory for Men score (OR 1.1, p <0.0001) and bilateral nerve sparing (OR 2.92, p <0.0001) were independently associated with achieving potency. Predicted probabilities (95% CI) of postoperative 1-year continence at age 65, 70 and 75 years were 0.66 (0.63, 0.69), 0.63 (0.57, 0.68) and 0.59 (0.52, 0.66), respectively. The corresponding probabilities of postoperative 1-year potency after bilateral nerve sparing were 0.66 (0.62, 0.71), 0.56 (0.49, 0.64) and 0.46 (0.36, 0.56). In our experience there is an acceptable probability of achieving continence and potency after robotic radical prostatectomy in selected elderly patients. 2010 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

In Vitro and in Vivo Evaluation of Native Glucagon and Glucagon Analog (MAR-D28) during Aging: Lack of Cytotoxicity and Preservation of Hyperglycemic Effect

PubMed Central

Ward, W Kenneth; Massoud, Ryan G; Szybala, Cory J; Engle, Julia M; El Youssef, Joseph; Carroll, Julie M; Roberts, Charles T; DiMarchi, Richard D

2010-01-01

Background For automated prevention of hypoglycemia, there is a need for glucagon (or an analog) to be sufficiently stable so that it can be indwelled in a portable pump for at least 3 days. However, under some conditions, solutions of glucagon can form amyloid fibrils. Currently, the usage instructions for commercially available glucagon allow only for its immediate use. Methods In NIH 3T3 fibroblasts, we tested amyloid formation and cytotoxicity of solutions of native glucagon and the glucagon analog MAR-D28 after aging under different conditions for 5 days. In addition, aged native glucagon was subjected to size-exclusion chromatography (SEC). We also studied whether subcutaneous aged Novo Nordisk GlucaGen® would have normal bioactivity in octreotide-treated, anesthetized, nondiabetic pigs. Results We found no evidence of cytotoxicity from native glucagon or MAR-D28 (up to 2.5 mg/ml) at a pH of 10 in a glycine solvent. We found a mild cytotoxicity for both compounds in Tris buffer at pH 8.5. A high concentration of the commercial glucagon preparation (GlucaGen) caused marked cytotoxicity, but low pH and/or a high osmolarity probably accounted primarily for this effect. With SEC, the decline in monomeric glucagon over time was much lower when aged in glycine (pH 10) than when aged in Tris (pH 8.5) or in citrate (pH 3). Congo red staining for amyloid was very low with the glycine preparation (pH 10). In the pig studies, the hyperglycemic effect of commercially available glucagon was preserved despite aging conditions associated with marked amyloid formation. Conclusions Under certain conditions, aqueous solutions of glucagon and MAR-D28 are stable for at least 5 days and are thus very likely to be safe in mammals. Glycine buffer at a pH of 10 appears to be optimal for avoiding cytotoxicity and amyloid fibril formation. PMID:21129325

Stretch reflex excitability of the anti-gravity ankle extensor muscle in elderly humans.

PubMed

Kawashima, N; Nakazawa, K; Yamamoto, S-I; Nozaki, D; Akai, M; Yano, H

2004-01-01

To examine whether the stretch reflex excitability of the soleus muscle changes with age, stretch reflexes at rest (REST) and during weak voluntary contractions (ACT) were elicited in 18 older and 14 younger subjects. The amplitude of the stretch reflex responses and gain, defined as the gradient of the regression line for the relation between stretch reflex responses against the angular velocity of the applied perturbation, were evaluated in each short-latency (M1) and two long-latency components (M2 and M3). It was found that in the older group, both the amplitude and gain of the M1 component did not change from the REST to the ACT conditions, whereas in the younger group both variables significantly increased from the REST to ACT conditions. The latency of the M1 component was significantly shorter under the REST condition (older vs. younger: 51.8 +/- 7.37 vs. 55.1 +/- 8.69 ms), while no group differences were found in those variables under the ACT condition, suggesting that the muscle-tendon complexes of SOL muscles of the older subjects were less elastic and had less slack, probably due to age-related histochemical alterations. Further, the Hoffman reflex (H-reflex), elicited during the REST condition in 10 older and 11 younger subjects showed no significant differences, suggesting that the soleus motoneuron response to the Ia input was comparable between the two subject groups. The histochemical alterations occurring with the ageing process might augment the short-latency stretch reflex in the SOL muscle without enhancement of motoneuronal excitability, and this effect might be masked when the muscle is voluntarily activated.

Full accounting of diabetes and pre-diabetes in the U.S. population in 1988-1994 and 2005-2006.

PubMed

Cowie, Catherine C; Rust, Keith F; Ford, Earl S; Eberhardt, Mark S; Byrd-Holt, Danita D; Li, Chaoyang; Williams, Desmond E; Gregg, Edward W; Bainbridge, Kathleen E; Saydah, Sharon H; Geiss, Linda S

2009-02-01

We examined the prevalences of diagnosed diabetes, and undiagnosed diabetes and pre-diabetes using fasting and 2-h oral glucose tolerance test values, in the U.S. during 2005-2006. We then compared the prevalences of these conditions with those in 1988-1994. In 2005-2006, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey included a probability sample of 7,267 people aged > or =12 years. Participants were classified according to glycemic status by interview for diagnosed diabetes and by fasting and 2-h glucoses measured in subsamples. In 2005-2006, the crude prevalence of total diabetes in people aged > or =20 years was 12.9%, of which approximately 40% was undiagnosed. In people aged > or =20 years, the crude prevalence of impaired fasting glucose was 25.7% and of impaired glucose tolerance was 13.8%, with almost 30% having either. Over 40% of individuals had diabetes or pre-diabetes. Almost one-third of the elderly had diabetes, and three-quarters had diabetes or pre-diabetes. Compared with non-Hispanic whites, age- and sex-standardized prevalence of diagnosed diabetes was approximately twice as high in non-Hispanic blacks (P < 0.0001) and Mexican Americans (P = 0.0001), whereas undiagnosed diabetes was not higher. Crude prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in people aged > or =20 years rose from 5.1% in 1988-1994 to 7.7% in 2005-2006 (P = 0.0001); this was significant after accounting for differences in age and sex, particularly in non-Hispanic blacks. Prevalences of undiagnosed diabetes and pre-diabetes were generally stable, although the proportion of total diabetes that was undiagnosed decreased in Mexican Americans. Over 40% of people aged > or =20 years have hyperglycemic conditions, and prevalence is higher in minorities. Diagnosed diabetes has increased over time, but other conditions have been relatively stable.

Stochastic approach for an unbiased estimation of the probability of a successful separation in conventional chromatography and sequential elution liquid chromatography.

PubMed

Ennis, Erin J; Foley, Joe P

2016-07-15

A stochastic approach was utilized to estimate the probability of a successful isocratic or gradient separation in conventional chromatography for numbers of sample components, peak capacities, and saturation factors ranging from 2 to 30, 20-300, and 0.017-1, respectively. The stochastic probabilities were obtained under conditions of (i) constant peak width ("gradient" conditions) and (ii) peak width increasing linearly with time ("isocratic/constant N" conditions). The isocratic and gradient probabilities obtained stochastically were compared with the probabilities predicted by Martin et al. [Anal. Chem., 58 (1986) 2200-2207] and Davis and Stoll [J. Chromatogr. A, (2014) 128-142]; for a given number of components and peak capacity the same trend is always observed: probability obtained with the isocratic stochastic approach

[Socio-demographic and health factors associated with the institutionalization of dependent people].

PubMed

Ayuso Gutiérrez, Mercedes; Pozo Rubio, Raúl Del; Escribano Sotos, Francisco

2010-01-01

The analysis of the effect that different variables have in the probability that dependent people are institutionalized is a topic scantily studied in Spain. The aim of the work is to analyze as certain socio-demographic and health factors can influence probability of dependent person living in a residence. A cross-section study has been conducted from a representative sample of the dependent population in Cuenca (Spain) in February, 2009. We have obtained information for people with level II and III of dependence. A binary logit regression model has been estimated to identify those factors related to the institutionalization of dependent people. People with ages between 65-74 years old are six times more likely to be institutionalized than younger people (< 65 years old); this probability increases sixteen times for those individuals with ages equal or higher than 95 years. The probability of institutionalization of people who live in an urban area is three times the probability of people who live in a rural area. People who need pharmacological, psychotherapy or rehabilitation treatments have between two and four times more probability of being institutionalized that those who do not need those. Age, marital status, place of residence, cardiovascular and musculoskeletal diseases and four times of medical treatment are the principal variables associated with the institutionalization of dependent people.

Glass Veins in the Unequilibrated Eucrite Yamato 82202

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bogard, Donald; Buchanan, Paul; Noguchi, T.; Katavama, Ikuo

2004-01-01

The unequilibrated eucrite Yamato 82202 (Y82202) contains a network of glass veins, which are relatively thick (up to 1 mm in width) and are not devitrified. The host of the meteorite represents volcanic rock that crystallized >4.3 Gyr ago, probably as a lava flow on the surface of 4 Vesta. The impact event that formed the glass veins occurred at approx. 3.9 Gyr under conditions of low effective fo2 and very rapid cooling. A S-rich vapor probably was generated by impact vaporization of sulfides. The impact melt was not superheated and it retains some disordered structural characteristics of the original pyroxene and feldspar of the eucritic target lithology. The unequilibrated pyroxenes of this eucrite and the pristine character of the glass indicate that the meteorite experienced no significant metamorphism after initial crystallization. Hence, it was not buried to a significant depth or covered by a lava flow or hot layer of impact ejecta. The meteorite resided at a shallow level (though not at the surface) on 4 Vesta or on one of the vestoids until it was ejected and traveled to Earth, probably with other HED materials that have Ar-36 exposure ages of approx. 13 Myr.

Adolescents display distinctive tolerance to ambiguity and to uncertainty during risky decision making

PubMed Central

van den Bos, Wouter; Hertwig, Ralph

2017-01-01

Although actuarial data indicate that risk-taking behavior peaks in adolescence, laboratory evidence for this developmental spike remains scarce. One possible explanation for this incongruity is that in the real world adolescents often have only vague information about the potential consequences of their behavior and the likelihoods of those consequences, whereas in the lab these are often clearly stated. How do adolescents behave under such more realistic conditions of ambiguity and uncertainty? We asked 105 participants aged from 8 to 22 years to make three types of choices: (1) choices between options whose possible outcomes and probabilities were fully described (choices under risk); (2) choices between options whose possible outcomes were described but whose probability information was incomplete (choices under ambiguity), and (3) choices between unknown options whose possible outcomes and probabilities could be explored (choices under uncertainty). Relative to children and adults, two adolescent-specific markers emerged. First, adolescents were more accepting of ambiguity; second, they were also more accepting of uncertainty (as indicated by shorter pre-decisional search). Furthermore, this tolerance of the unknown was associated with motivational, but not cognitive, factors. These findings offer novel insights into the psychology of adolescent risk taking. PMID:28098227

[Construction of abridged life table for health evaluation of local resident using Excel program].

PubMed

Chen, Qingsha; Wang, Feng; Li, Xiaozhen; Yang, Jian; Yu, Shouyi; Hu, Jun

2012-05-01

To provide an easy computational tool for evaluating the health condition of local residents. An abridged life table was programmed by applying mathematical functions and formula in Excel program and tested with the real study data to evaluate the results computed. The Excel was capable of computing group death probability of age in the life table ((n)q(x)), number of survivors (l(x)), number of death ((n)d(x)), survival per person-year ((n)L(x)), survival total per person-year (T(x)) and life expectancy (e(x)). The calculated results were consistent with those by SAS. The abridged life table constructed using Microsoft Excel can conveniently and accurately calculate the relevant indices for evaluating the health condition of the residents.

Cognitive-Motor Interference during Walking in Older Adults with Probable Mild Cognitive Impairment

PubMed Central

Klotzbier, Thomas J.; Schott, Nadja

2017-01-01

Although several studies have shown that dual-tasking (DT) mobility is impaired in Alzheimer's disease, studies on the effects of DT conditions in probable Mild Cognitive Impairment (pMCI) have not yielded unequivocal results. The objectives of the study were to (1) examine the effect of a concurrent task on a complex walking task in adults with cognitive impairment; and (2) determine whether the effect varied with different difficulty levels of the concurrent task. Furthermore, the study was designed to evaluate the Trail-Walking Test (TWT) as a potential detection tool for MCI. We examined DT performance in 42 young adults (mean age 23.9 ± 1.98), and 43 older adults (mean age 68.2 ± 6.42). The MoCA was used to stratify the subjects into those with and without pMCI. DT was assessed using the TWT: participants completed 5 trials each of walking along a fixed pathway, stepping on targets with increasing sequential numbers (i.e., 1-2-…-15), and increasing sequential numbers and letters (i.e., 1-A-2-B-3-…-8). Motor and cognitive DT effects (DTE) were calculated for each task. ROC curves were used to distinguish younger and healthy older adults from older adults with pMCI. The TWT showed excellent test-retest reliability across all conditions and groups (ICC : 0.83–0.97). SEM% was also low (<11%) as was the MDC95% (<30%). Within the DT conditions, the pMCI group showed significantly longer durations for all tasks regardless of the cognitive load compared to the younger and the healthy older adults. The motor DTEs were greatest for the complex condition in older adults with pMCI more so than in comparison with younger and healthy older adults. ROC analyses confirmed that only the tasks with higher cognitive load could differentiate older adults with pMCI from controls (area under the curve >0.7, p < 0.05). The TWT is a reliable DT mobility measure in people with pMCI. However, the condition with high cognitive load is more sensitive than the condition with low cognitive load in identifying pMCI. The TWT-3 thus could serve as a screening tool for early detection of individuals with pMCI. Future studies need to determine the neural correlates for cognitive-motor interference in older adults with pMCI. PMID:29321738

Cognitive-Motor Interference during Walking in Older Adults with Probable Mild Cognitive Impairment.

PubMed

Klotzbier, Thomas J; Schott, Nadja

2017-01-01

Although several studies have shown that dual-tasking (DT) mobility is impaired in Alzheimer's disease, studies on the effects of DT conditions in probable Mild Cognitive Impairment (pMCI) have not yielded unequivocal results. The objectives of the study were to (1) examine the effect of a concurrent task on a complex walking task in adults with cognitive impairment; and (2) determine whether the effect varied with different difficulty levels of the concurrent task. Furthermore, the study was designed to evaluate the Trail-Walking Test (TWT) as a potential detection tool for MCI. We examined DT performance in 42 young adults (mean age 23.9 ± 1.98), and 43 older adults (mean age 68.2 ± 6.42). The MoCA was used to stratify the subjects into those with and without pMCI. DT was assessed using the TWT: participants completed 5 trials each of walking along a fixed pathway, stepping on targets with increasing sequential numbers (i.e., 1-2-…-15), and increasing sequential numbers and letters (i.e., 1-A-2-B-3-…-8). Motor and cognitive DT effects (DTE) were calculated for each task. ROC curves were used to distinguish younger and healthy older adults from older adults with pMCI. The TWT showed excellent test-retest reliability across all conditions and groups (ICC : 0.83-0.97). SEM% was also low (<11%) as was the MDC95% (<30%). Within the DT conditions, the pMCI group showed significantly longer durations for all tasks regardless of the cognitive load compared to the younger and the healthy older adults. The motor DTEs were greatest for the complex condition in older adults with pMCI more so than in comparison with younger and healthy older adults. ROC analyses confirmed that only the tasks with higher cognitive load could differentiate older adults with pMCI from controls (area under the curve >0.7, p < 0.05). The TWT is a reliable DT mobility measure in people with pMCI. However, the condition with high cognitive load is more sensitive than the condition with low cognitive load in identifying pMCI. The TWT-3 thus could serve as a screening tool for early detection of individuals with pMCI. Future studies need to determine the neural correlates for cognitive-motor interference in older adults with pMCI.

Effect of Donor and Recipient Factors on Corneal Graft Rejection

PubMed Central

Stulting, R. Doyle; Sugar, Alan; Beck, Roy; Belin, Michael; Dontchev, Mariya; Feder, Robert S.; Gal, Robin L.; Holland, Edward J.; Kollman, Craig; Mannis, Mark J.; Price, Francis; Stark, Walter; Verdier, David D.

2014-01-01

Purpose To assess the relationship between donor and recipient factors and corneal allograft rejection in eyes that underwent penetrating keratoplasty (PK) in the Cornea Donor Study. Methods 1090 subjects undergoing corneal transplantation for a moderate risk condition (principally Fuchs’ dystrophy or pseudophakic corneal edema) were followed for up to 5 years. Associations of baseline recipient and donor factors with the occurrence of a probable or definite rejection event were assessed in univariate and multivariate proportional hazards models. Results Eyes with pseudophakic or aphakic corneal edema (N=369) were more likely to experience a rejection event than eyes with Fuchs’ dystrophy (N=676) (34% ± 6% versus 22% ± 4%; hazard ratio = 1.56; 95% confidence interval 1.21 to 2.03). Among eyes with Fuchs’dystrophy, a higher probability of a rejection event was observed in phakic post-transplant eyes compared with eyes that underwent cataract extraction with or without intraocular lens implantation during PK (29% vs. 19%; hazard ratio = 0.54; 95% confidence interval 0.36 to 0.82). Female recipients had a higher probability of a rejection event than males (29% vs. 21%; hazard ratio=1.42; 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.87), after controlling for the effect of preoperative diagnosis and lens status. Donor age and donor recipient ABO compatibility were not associated with rejection. Conclusions There was a substantially higher graft rejection rate in eyes with pseudophakic or aphakic corneal edema compared with eyes with Fuchs’ dystrophy. Female recipients were more likely to have a rejection event than males. Graft rejection was not associated with donor age. PMID:22488114

Exploring differences in healthcare utilization of prisoners in the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland

PubMed Central

Moschetti, Karine; Zabrodina, Véra; Stadelmann, Pierre; Wangmo, Tenzin; Holly, Alberto; Wasserfallen, Jean-Blaise; Elger, Bernice S.; Gravier, Bruno

2017-01-01

Prison healthcare is an important public health concern given the increasing healthcare needs of a growing and aging prison population, which accumulates vulnerability factors and suffers from higher disease prevalence than the general population. This study identifies the key factors associated with outpatient general practitioner (GP), nursing or psychiatric healthcare utilization (HCU) within prisons. Cross-sectional data systematically collected by the prison medical staff were obtained for a sample of 1664 adult prisoners of the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland, for the year 2011. They contain detailed information on demographics (predisposing factors), diagnosed chronic somatic and psychiatric disorders (needs factors), as well as prison stay characteristics (contextual factors). For GP, nurse and psychiatric care, two-part regressions are used to model separately the probability and the volume of HCU. Predisposing factors are generally not associated with the probability to use healthcare services after controlling for needs factors. However, female inmates use higher volumes of care, and the volume of GP consultations increases with age. Chronic somatic and psychiatric conditions are the most important predictors of the probability of HCU, but associations with volumes differ in their magnitude and significance across disease groups. Infectious, musculoskeletal, nervous and circulatory diseases actively mobilize GP and nursing staff. Schizophrenia, illicit drug and pharmaceuticals abuse are strongly positively associated with psychiatric and nurse HCU. The occupancy rate displays positive associations among contextual factors. Prison healthcare systems face increasingly complex organizational, budgetary and ethical challenges. This study provides relevant insights into the HCU patterns of a marginalized and understudied population. PMID:29084290

Social Support and Coping Styles in Predicting Suicide Probability among Turkish Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cenkseven-Önder, Fulya

2018-01-01

This study aims to investigate whether the perceived social support and coping styles are predictors of suicide probability by gender. The study was conducted with 445 high schools students, 227 girls, and 218 boys. The participants were aged between 14 and 18, and their average age was 15.90. Data were collected through the "Multidimensional…

Protective Factors against Serious Violent Behavior in Adolescence: A Prospective Study of Aggressive Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herrenkohl, Todd I.; Hill, Karl G.; Chung, Ick-Joong; Guo, Jie; Abbott, Robert D.; Hawkins, J. David

2003-01-01

Examines factors in adolescence that affect the probability of violent behavior at age 18 among youths who received high teacher ratings of aggression at age 10. Study found a lower probability of violence was associated with religious services attendance, good family management by parents, and bonding to school. Implications of these findings for…

Predicting redox-sensitive contaminant concentrations in groundwater using random forest classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Gronberg, Jo Ann; Juckem, Paul F.; Miller, Matthew P.; Austin, Brian P.

2017-08-01

Machine learning techniques were applied to a large (n > 10,000) compliance monitoring database to predict the occurrence of several redox-active constituents in groundwater across a large watershed. Specifically, random forest classification was used to determine the probabilities of detecting elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic in the Fox, Wolf, Peshtigo, and surrounding watersheds in northeastern Wisconsin. Random forest classification is well suited to describe the nonlinear relationships observed among several explanatory variables and the predicted probabilities of elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic. Maps of the probability of elevated nitrate, iron, and arsenic can be used to assess groundwater vulnerability and the vulnerability of streams to contaminants derived from groundwater. Processes responsible for elevated concentrations are elucidated using partial dependence plots. For example, an increase in the probability of elevated iron and arsenic occurred when well depths coincided with the glacial/bedrock interface, suggesting a bedrock source for these constituents. Furthermore, groundwater in contact with Ordovician bedrock has a higher likelihood of elevated iron concentrations, which supports the hypothesis that groundwater liberates iron from a sulfide-bearing secondary cement horizon of Ordovician age. Application of machine learning techniques to existing compliance monitoring data offers an opportunity to broadly assess aquifer and stream vulnerability at regional and national scales and to better understand geochemical processes responsible for observed conditions.

Predicting redox-sensitive contaminant concentrations in groundwater using random forest classification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Gronberg, Jo Ann M.; Juckem, Paul F.; Miller, Matthew P.; Austin, Brian P.

2017-01-01

Machine learning techniques were applied to a large (n > 10,000) compliance monitoring database to predict the occurrence of several redox-active constituents in groundwater across a large watershed. Specifically, random forest classification was used to determine the probabilities of detecting elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic in the Fox, Wolf, Peshtigo, and surrounding watersheds in northeastern Wisconsin. Random forest classification is well suited to describe the nonlinear relationships observed among several explanatory variables and the predicted probabilities of elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic. Maps of the probability of elevated nitrate, iron, and arsenic can be used to assess groundwater vulnerability and the vulnerability of streams to contaminants derived from groundwater. Processes responsible for elevated concentrations are elucidated using partial dependence plots. For example, an increase in the probability of elevated iron and arsenic occurred when well depths coincided with the glacial/bedrock interface, suggesting a bedrock source for these constituents. Furthermore, groundwater in contact with Ordovician bedrock has a higher likelihood of elevated iron concentrations, which supports the hypothesis that groundwater liberates iron from a sulfide-bearing secondary cement horizon of Ordovician age. Application of machine learning techniques to existing compliance monitoring data offers an opportunity to broadly assess aquifer and stream vulnerability at regional and national scales and to better understand geochemical processes responsible for observed conditions.

Height probabilities in the Abelian sandpile model on the generalized finite Bethe lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Haiyan; Zhang, Fuji

2013-08-01

In this paper, we study the sandpile model on the generalized finite Bethe lattice with a particular boundary condition. Using a combinatorial method, we give the exact expressions for all single-site probabilities and some two-site joint probabilities. As a by-product, we prove that the height probabilities of bulk vertices are all the same for the Bethe lattice with certain given boundary condition, which was found from numerical evidence by Grassberger and Manna ["Some more sandpiles," J. Phys. (France) 51, 1077-1098 (1990)], 10.1051/jphys:0199000510110107700 but without a proof.

Food intake and nutrition in children 1-4 years of age in Yucatan, Mexico.

PubMed

Cuanalo de la Cerda, Heriberto E; Ochoa Estrada, Ernesto; Tuz Poot, Felipe R; Datta Banik, Sudip

2014-01-01

The National Health and Nutrition Survey 2006 (ENSANUT in Spanish) reported high rates of under-nutrition in children of Yucatan. Is food intake the main cause of under-nutrition in children of the state of Yucatan, Mexico? Identify the primary causes of under-nutrition in pre-school children in Yucatan. A sample of 111 children (59 girls and 52 boys) aged 1-4 years representing Yucatan was taken from a database of ENSANUT 2006 and another national survey, a federal poverty mitigation programme for the state of Yucatan, Mexico entitled "Oportunidades". A human ecology approach together with life history theory was used to analyse anthropometric indices and food intake data from the ENSANUT 2006 and "Oportunidades". Height and weight were significantly correlated to age and total food intake. No correlations were found between age and anthropometric indices or food intake rates. The children in the sample had adequate protein intake but deficient energy intake. No correlation was identified between nutritional status and food intake rates. Pre-schoolers with higher weight-for-height values achieved greater height-for-age. These relationships can be explained by life history theory in that energy intake was used either for maintenance (combating and recovering from infections) or growth. The poor relationship between food intake rates and nutritional status is probably explained by the interaction between high disease incidence and insufficient energy intake. These conditions are endemic in Yucatan due to widespread poor housing, water and sanitation conditions.

Burning mouth syndrome

PubMed Central

Jimson, Sudha; Rajesh, E.; Krupaa, R. Jayasri; Kasthuri, M.

2015-01-01

Burning mouth syndrome (BMS) is a complex disorder that is characterized by warm or burning sensation in the oral mucosa without changes on physical examination. It occurs more commonly in middle-aged and elderly women and often affects the tip of the tongue, lateral borders, lips, hard and soft palate. This condition is probably of multi-factorial origin, often idiopathic, and its etiopathogensis is unknown. BMS can be classified into two clinical forms namely primary and secondary BMS. As a result, a multidisciplinary approach is required for better control of the symptoms. In addition, psychotherapy and behavioral feedback may also help eliminate the BMS symptoms. PMID:26015707

Metamorphic facies map of Southeastern Alaska; distribution, facies, and ages of regionally metamorphosed rocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dusel-Bacon, Cynthia; Brew, D.A.; Douglass, S.L.

1996-01-01

Nearly all of the bedrock in Southeastern Alaska has been metamorphosed, much of it under medium-grade conditions during metamorphic episodes that were associated with widespread plutonism. The oldest metamorphisms affected probable arc rocks near southern Prince of Wales Island and occurred during early and middle Paleozoic orogenies. The predominant period of metamorphism and associated plutonism occurred during Early Cretaceous to early Tertiary time and resulted in the development of the Coast plutonic-metamorphic complex that extends along the inboard half of Southeastern Alaska. Middle Tertiary regional thermal metamorphism affected a large part of Baranof Island.

Conditional Probability Analysis: A Statistical Tool for Environmental Analysis.

EPA Science Inventory

The use and application of environmental conditional probability analysis (CPA) is relatively recent. The first presentation using CPA was made in 2002 at the New England Association of Environmental Biologists Annual Meeting in Newport. Rhode Island. CPA has been used since the...

Quantifying seining detection probability for fishes of Great Plains sand‐bed rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mollenhauer, Robert; Logue, Daniel R.; Brewer, Shannon K.

2018-01-01

Species detection error (i.e., imperfect and variable detection probability) is an essential consideration when investigators map distributions and interpret habitat associations. When fish detection error that is due to highly variable instream environments needs to be addressed, sand‐bed streams of the Great Plains represent a unique challenge. We quantified seining detection probability for diminutive Great Plains fishes across a range of sampling conditions in two sand‐bed rivers in Oklahoma. Imperfect detection resulted in underestimates of species occurrence using naïve estimates, particularly for less common fishes. Seining detection probability also varied among fishes and across sampling conditions. We observed a quadratic relationship between water depth and detection probability, in which the exact nature of the relationship was species‐specific and dependent on water clarity. Similarly, the direction of the relationship between water clarity and detection probability was species‐specific and dependent on differences in water depth. The relationship between water temperature and detection probability was also species dependent, where both the magnitude and direction of the relationship varied among fishes. We showed how ignoring detection error confounded an underlying relationship between species occurrence and water depth. Despite imperfect and heterogeneous detection, our results support that determining species absence can be accomplished with two to six spatially replicated seine hauls per 200‐m reach under average sampling conditions; however, required effort would be higher under certain conditions. Detection probability was low for the Arkansas River Shiner Notropis girardi, which is federally listed as threatened, and more than 10 seine hauls per 200‐m reach would be required to assess presence across sampling conditions. Our model allows scientists to estimate sampling effort to confidently assess species occurrence, which maximizes the use of available resources. Increased implementation of approaches that consider detection error promote ecological advancements and conservation and management decisions that are better informed.

Depressive Symptoms and Salivary Telomere Length in a Probability Sample of Middle-Aged and Older Adults.

PubMed

Whisman, Mark A; Richardson, Emily D

To examine the association between depressive symptoms and salivary telomere length in a probability sample of middle-aged and older adults, and to evaluate age and sex as potential moderators of this association and test whether this association was incremental to potential confounds. Participants were 3,609 individuals from the 2008 wave of the Health and Retirement Study. Telomere length assays were performed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction on DNA extracted from saliva samples. Depressive symptoms were assessed via interview, and health and lifestyle factors, traumatic life events, and neuroticism were assessed via self-report. Regression analyses were conducted to examine the associations between predictor variables and salivary telomere length. After adjusting for demographics, depressive symptoms were negatively associated with salivary telomere length (b = -.003; p = .014). Furthermore, this association was moderated by sex (b = .005; p = .011), such that depressive symptoms were significantly and negatively associated with salivary telomere length for men (b = - .006; p < .001) but not for women (b = - .001; p = .644). The negative association between depressive symptoms and salivary telomere length in men remained statistically significant after additionally adjusting for cigarette smoking, body mass index, chronic health conditions, childhood and lifetime exposure to traumatic life events, and neuroticism. Higher levels of depressive symptoms were associated with shorter salivary telomeres in men, and this association was incremental to several potential confounds. Shortened telomeres may help account for the association between depression and poor physical health and mortality.

Relationship between Serum Antibodies and Taenia solium Larvae Burden in Pigs Raised in Field Conditions

PubMed Central

Gavidia, Cesar M.; Verastegui, Manuela R.; Garcia, Hector H.; Lopez-Urbina, Teresa; Tsang, Victor C. W.; Pan, William; Gilman, Robert H.; Gonzalez, Armando E.

2013-01-01

Background Serological tests have been used for the diagnosis of Taenia solium infection in pigs. However, those serological results do not necessarily correlate with the actual infection burden after performing pig necropsy. This study aimed to evaluate the Electro Immuno Transfer Blot (EITB) seropositivity with infection burden in naturally infected pigs. Methodology/Principal Findings In an endemic area of Peru, 476 pigs were sampled. Seroprevalence was 60.5±4.5% with a statistically higher proportion of positive older pigs (>8 months) than young pigs. The logistic model showed that pigs >8 month of age were 2.5 times more likely to be EITB-positive than ≤8 months. A subset of 84 seropositive pigs were necropsied, with 45.2% (38/84) positive to 1–2 bands, 46.4% (39/84) to 3 bands, and 8.3% (7/84) to 4+ bands. 41 out of 84 positive pigs were negative to necropsy (48.8%) and 43 (51%) had one or more cysts (positive predictive value). Older pigs showed more moderate and heavy infection burdens compared to younger pigs. In general, regardless of the age of the pig, the probability of having more cysts (parasite burden) increases proportionally with the number of EITB bands. Conclusions/Significance The probability of being necropsy-positive increased with the number of bands, and age. Therefore, the EITB is a measure of exposure rather than a test to determine the real prevalence of cysticercosis infection. PMID:23658848

Quantitative posturography in altered sensory conditions: a way to assess balance instability in patients with chronic whiplash injury.

PubMed

Madeleine, Pascal; Prietzel, Hanne; Svarrer, Heine; Arendt-Nielsen, Lars

2004-03-01

To quantify neck mobility and posture with and without various postural perturbations. A multivariable 2-group study with repeated measures and treatments. A human performance laboratory. Eleven patients with chronic whiplash injury (mean age, 33.3+/-6.7 y; weight, 73.4+/-11.4 kg; height, 173.3+/-7.2 cm) with a sex- and age-matched control group (mean age, 33.1+/-6.8 y; weight, 68+/-12.5 kg; height, 171.5+/-6.3 cm). Neck mobility and the effects of postural perturbations affecting the visual, vestibular, cutaneous, proprioceptive, and nociceptive systems were measured. Active range of motion, neck position sense, and postural activity. We found significantly reduced neck mobility and increased postural activity in the patient group compared with the control group. In patients, there was significantly greater postural activity with eyes closed, eyes open and speaking, and eyes closed with Achilles' tendons vibrations compared with eyes open with no vibrations. In the controls, there was no significant effect of experimental muscle pain on postural activity. Patients with chronic whiplash injury had a protective response to neck movement and different tuning, sequencing, and execution of the postural synergies probably because of excessive reliance on visual input despite a possible deficit and altered vestibular and/or proprioceptive activity. In healthy volunteers, the pain induced by a single bolus injection of hypertonic saline was probably too limited in intensity and spreading to decrease postural stability.

Impact of five modifiable lifestyle habits on the probability of cancer occurrence in a Japanese population-based cohort: results from the JPHC study.

PubMed

Charvat, Hadrien; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sawada, Norie; Shimazu, Taichi; Yamaji, Taiki; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2013-11-01

The present work aims to provide 10-year estimates of the probability of cancer occurrence in the Japanese population based on age, sex, and the pattern of adherence to five healthy lifestyle habits. The study population consisted of 74,935 participants in the Japan Public Health Center-Based Prospective Study (aged 45 to 74 years) who answered a 5-year follow-up questionnaire about various lifestyle habits between 1995 and 1999. The relationship between five previously identified healthy lifestyle habits (never smoking, moderate or no alcohol consumption, adequate physical activity, moderate salt intake, and appropriate body mass index) and cancer occurrence was assessed using a sex-specific parametric survival model. Compared to individuals not adhering to any of the five habits, never-smoking men had a nearly 30% reduction in the 10-year probability of cancer occurrence (e.g., 20.5% vs. 28.7% at age 70), and never-smoking women had a 16% reduction (e.g., 10.5% vs. 12.5% at age 70). Adherence to all five habits was estimated to reduce the 10-year probability of cancer occurrence by 1/2 in men and 1/3 in women. By quantifying the impact of lifestyle habits on the probability of cancer occurrence, this study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle improvement. © 2013.

On defense strategies for system of systems using aggregated correlations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S.; Imam, Neena; Ma, Chris Y. T.

2017-04-01

We consider a System of Systems (SoS) wherein each system Si, i = 1; 2; ... ;N, is composed of discrete cyber and physical components which can be attacked and reinforced. We characterize the disruptions using aggregate failure correlation functions given by the conditional failure probability of SoS given the failure of an individual system. We formulate the problem of ensuring the survival of SoS as a game between an attacker and a provider, each with a utility function composed of asurvival probability term and a cost term, both expressed in terms of the number of components attacked and reinforced.more » The survival probabilities of systems satisfy simple product-form, first-order differential conditions, which simplify the Nash Equilibrium (NE) conditions. We derive the sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of SoS survival probability at NE on cost terms, correlation functions, and individual system survival probabilities.We apply these results to a simplified model of distributed cloud computing infrastructure.« less

A method of decision analysis quantifying the effects of age and comorbidities on the probability of deriving significant benefit from medical treatments

PubMed Central

Bean, Nigel G.; Ruberu, Ravi P.

2017-01-01

Background The external validity, or generalizability, of trials and guidelines has been considered poor in the context of multiple morbidity. How multiple morbidity might affect the magnitude of benefit of a given treatment, and thereby external validity, has had little study. Objective To provide a method of decision analysis to quantify the effects of age and comorbidity on the probability of deriving a given magnitude of treatment benefit. Design We developed a method to calculate probabilistically the effect of all of a patient’s comorbidities on their underlying utility, or well-being, at a future time point. From this, we derived a distribution of possible magnitudes of treatment benefit at that future time point. We then expressed this distribution as the probability of deriving at least a given magnitude of treatment benefit. To demonstrate the applicability of this method of decision analysis, we applied it to the treatment of hypercholesterolaemia in a geriatric population of 50 individuals. We highlighted the results of four of these individuals. Results This method of analysis provided individualized quantifications of the effect of age and comorbidity on the probability of treatment benefit. The average probability of deriving a benefit, of at least 50% of the magnitude of benefit available to an individual without comorbidity, was only 0.8%. Conclusion The effects of age and comorbidity on the probability of deriving significant treatment benefits can be quantified for any individual. Even without consideration of other factors affecting external validity, these effects may be sufficient to guide decision-making. PMID:29090189

Climate influences on whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Hicke, Jeffrey A; Preisler, Haiganoush K; Abatzoglou, John T; Raffa, Kenneth F; Logan, Jesse A

2016-12-01

Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western USA, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle are not well understood, yet are important considerations in whether to list whitebark pine as a threatened or endangered species. We sought to increase the understanding of climate influences on mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, which are less well understood than in lodgepole pine, by quantifying climate-beetle relationships, analyzing climate influences during the recent outbreak, and estimating the suitability of future climate for beetle outbreaks. We developed a statistical model of the probability of whitebark pine mortality in the GYE that included temperature effects on beetle development and survival, precipitation effects on host tree condition, beetle population size, and stand characteristics. Estimated probability of whitebark pine mortality increased with higher winter minimum temperature, indicating greater beetle winter survival; higher fall temperature, indicating synchronous beetle emergence; lower two-year summer precipitation, indicating increased potential for host tree stress; increasing beetle populations; stand age; and increasing percent composition of whitebark pine within a stand. The recent outbreak occurred during a period of higher-than-normal regional winter temperatures, suitable fall temperatures, and low summer precipitation. In contrast to lodgepole pine systems, area with mortality was linked to precipitation variability even at high beetle populations. Projections from climate models indicate future climate conditions will likely provide favorable conditions for beetle outbreaks within nearly all current whitebark pine habitat in the GYE by the middle of this century. Therefore, when surviving and regenerating trees reach ages suitable for beetle attack, there is strong potential for continued whitebark pine mortality due to mountain pine beetle. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Single, Complete, Probability Spaces Consistent With EPR-Bohm-Bell Experimental Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avis, David; Fischer, Paul; Hilbert, Astrid; Khrennikov, Andrei

2009-03-01

We show that paradoxical consequences of violations of Bell's inequality are induced by the use of an unsuitable probabilistic description for the EPR-Bohm-Bell experiment. The conventional description (due to Bell) is based on a combination of statistical data collected for different settings of polarization beam splitters (PBSs). In fact, such data consists of some conditional probabilities which only partially define a probability space. Ignoring this conditioning leads to apparent contradictions in the classical probabilistic model (due to Kolmogorov). We show how to make a completely consistent probabilistic model by taking into account the probabilities of selecting the settings of the PBSs. Our model matches both the experimental data and is consistent with classical probability theory.

Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

PubMed

Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

2015-04-01

This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The expected benefit of preventive mastectomy on breast cancer incidence and mortality in BRCA mutation carriers, by age at mastectomy.

PubMed

Giannakeas, Vasily; Narod, Steven A

2018-01-01

Preventive breast surgery is offered to unaffected BRCA mutation carriers to prevent breast cancer incidence and mortality. The clinical benefit of preventive mastectomy can be measured in several ways, including extension of life expectancy (mean years of life gained) and by estimating the probability of surviving until age 80. We sought to estimate the expected benefit of a preventive mastectomy at various ages, using these indices of mortality, by simulating hypothetical cohorts of women. The age-specific annual risks of developing breast cancer were used to estimate the actuarial risk of developing breast cancer by age 80 for women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation. The probability of developing breast cancer before age 80 was then modified to include competing causes of death, including from ovarian cancer. The mortality rate from breast cancer after a diagnosis of breast cancer was set at 2% annually for the first 10 years and then 1% annually for years ten to twenty. The incidence rate and mortality rate from ovarian cancer were based on published literature. We assumed that preventive mastectomy was associated with complete protection against subsequent breast cancer. A series of simulations was conducted to evaluate the reduction in the probability of death (from all causes) until age 80, according to the age at mastectomy. The actuarial risk of developing breast cancer until age 80 was estimated to be 70.8%. The actual risk (incorporating competing risks) was 64.0%. The probability of being alive at age 80 by having a mastectomy at age 25 increased by 8.7% (from 42.7 to 51.3%). The estimated benefit declined with age at mastectomy; for surgery done at age 50 the improvement in survival to age 80 was much more modest (2.8% at age 80, from 42.7 to 45.5%). Among BRCA mutation carriers, the mortality benefit of preventive mastectomy at age 25 is substantial, but the expected benefit declines rapidly with increasing age at surgery.

Measurement of the Errors of Service Altimeter Installations During Landing-Approach and Take-Off Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gracey, William; Jewel, Joseph W., Jr.; Carpenter, Gene T.

1960-01-01

The overall errors of the service altimeter installations of a variety of civil transport, military, and general-aviation airplanes have been experimentally determined during normal landing-approach and take-off operations. The average height above the runway at which the data were obtained was about 280 feet for the landings and about 440 feet for the take-offs. An analysis of the data obtained from 196 airplanes during 415 landing approaches and from 70 airplanes during 152 take-offs showed that: 1. The overall error of the altimeter installations in the landing- approach condition had a probable value (50 percent probability) of +/- 36 feet and a maximum probable value (99.7 percent probability) of +/- 159 feet with a bias of +10 feet. 2. The overall error in the take-off condition had a probable value of +/- 47 feet and a maximum probable value of +/- 207 feet with a bias of -33 feet. 3. The overall errors of the military airplanes were generally larger than those of the civil transports in both the landing-approach and take-off conditions. In the landing-approach condition the probable error and the maximum probable error of the military airplanes were +/- 43 and +/- 189 feet, respectively, with a bias of +15 feet, whereas those for the civil transports were +/- 22 and +/- 96 feet, respectively, with a bias of +1 foot. 4. The bias values of the error distributions (+10 feet for the landings and -33 feet for the take-offs) appear to represent a measure of the hysteresis characteristics (after effect and recovery) and friction of the instrument and the pressure lag of the tubing-instrument system.

Probabilistic Approach to Conditional Probability of Release of Hazardous Materials from Railroad Tank Cars during Accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-13

This paper describes a probabilistic approach to estimate the conditional probability of release of hazardous materials from railroad tank cars during train accidents. Monte Carlo methods are used in developing a probabilistic model to simulate head ...

The Dependence Structure of Conditional Probabilities in a Contingency Table

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joarder, Anwar H.; Al-Sabah, Walid S.

2002-01-01

Conditional probability and statistical independence can be better explained with contingency tables. In this note some special cases of 2 x 2 contingency tables are considered. In turn an interesting insight into statistical dependence as well as independence of events is obtained.

Comparison of Aperture Averaging and Receiver Diversity Techniques for Free Space Optical Links in Presence of Turbulence and Various Weather Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaur, Prabhmandeep; Jain, Virander Kumar; Kar, Subrat

2014-12-01

In this paper, we investigate the performance of a Free Space Optic (FSO) link considering the impairments caused by the presence of various weather conditions such as very clear air, drizzle, haze, fog, etc., and turbulence in the atmosphere. Analytic expression for the outage probability is derived using the gamma-gamma distribution for turbulence and accounting the effect of weather conditions using the Beer-Lambert's law. The effect of receiver diversity schemes using aperture averaging and array receivers on the outage probability is studied and compared. As the aperture diameter is increased, the outage probability decreases irrespective of the turbulence strength (weak, moderate and strong) and weather conditions. Similar effects are observed when the number of direct detection receivers in the array are increased. However, it is seen that as the desired level of performance in terms of the outage probability decreases, array receiver becomes the preferred choice as compared to the receiver with aperture averaging.

Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Using Reduced-Intensity Conditioning Is Successful in Children with Hematologic Cytopenias of Genetic Origin.

PubMed

Kothari, Alok; Ngwube, Alexander; Hayashi, Robert; Murray, Lisa; Davis, Jeffrey; Haut, Paul; Loechelt, Brett J; Shenoy, Shalini

2015-07-01

Genetically derived hematologic cytopenias are a rare heterogeneous group of disorders. Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is curative but offset by organ toxicities from the preparative regimen, graft rejection, graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), or mortality. Because of these possibilities, consideration of HCT can be delayed, especially in the unrelated donor setting. We report a prospective multicenter trial of reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) with alemtuzumab, fludarabine, and melphalan and HCT in 11 children with marrow failure of genetic origin (excluding Fanconi anemia) using the best available donor source (82% from unrelated donors). The median age at transplantation was 23 months (range, 2 months to 14 years). The median times to neutrophil (>500 × 10(6)/L) and platelet (>50 × 10(9)/L) engraftment were 13 (range, 12 to 24) and 30 (range, 7 to 55) days, respectively. The day +100 probability of grade II to IV acute GVHD and the 1-year probability of limited and extensive GVHD were 9% and 27%, respectively. The probability of 5-year overall and event-free survival was 82%; 9 patients were alive with normal blood counts at last follow-up and all were successfully off systemic immunosuppression. In patients with genetically derived severe hematologic cytopenias, allogeneic HCT with this RIC regimen was successful in achieving a cure. This experience supports consideration of HCT early in such patients even in the absence of suitable related donors. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sequential Revision of Belief, Trust Type, and the Order Effect.

PubMed

Entin, Elliot E; Serfaty, Daniel

2017-05-01

Objective To investigate how people's sequential adjustments to their position are impacted by the source of the information. Background There is an extensive body of research on how the order in which new information is received affects people's final views and decisions as well as research on how they adjust their views in light of new information. Method Seventy college-aged students, 60% of whom were women, completed one of eight different randomly distributed booklets prepared to create the eight different between-subjects treatment conditions created by crossing the two levels of information source with the four level of order conditions. Based on the information provided, participants estimated the probability of an attack, the dependent measure. Results Confirming information from an expert intelligence officer significantly increased the attack probability from the initial position more than confirming information from a longtime friend. Conversely, disconfirming information from a longtime friend decreased the attack probability significantly more than the same information from an intelligence officer. Conclusion It was confirmed that confirming and disconfirming evidence were differentially affected depending on information source, either an expert or a close friend. The difference appears to be due to the existence of two kinds of trust: cognitive-based imbued to an expert and affective-based imbued to a close friend. Application Purveyors of information need to understand that it is not only the content of a message that counts but that other forces are at work such as the order in which information is received and characteristics of the information source.

Development of a clinical prediction model to calculate patient life expectancy: the measure of actuarial life expectancy (MALE).

PubMed

Clarke, M G; Kennedy, K P; MacDonagh, R P

2009-01-01

To develop a clinical prediction model enabling the calculation of an individual patient's life expectancy (LE) and survival probability based on age, sex, and comorbidity for use in the joint decision-making process regarding medical treatment. A computer software program was developed with a team of 3 clinicians, 2 professional actuaries, and 2 professional computer programmers. This incorporated statistical spreadsheet and database access design methods. Data sources included life insurance industry actuarial rating factor tables (public and private domain), Government Actuary Department UK life tables, professional actuarial sources, and evidence-based medical literature. The main outcome measures were numerical and graphical display of comorbidity-adjusted LE; 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival probability; in addition to generic UK population LE. Nineteen medical conditions, which impacted significantly on LE in actuarial terms and were commonly encountered in clinical practice, were incorporated in the final model. Numerical and graphical representations of statistical predictions of LE and survival probability were successfully generated for patients with either no comorbidity or a combination of the 19 medical conditions included. Validation and testing, including actuarial peer review, confirmed consistency with the data sources utilized. The evidence-based actuarial data utilized in this computer program design represent a valuable resource for use in the clinical decision-making process, where an accurate objective assessment of patient LE can so often make the difference between patients being offered or denied medical and surgical treatment. Ongoing development to incorporate additional comorbidities and enable Web-based access will enhance its use further.

Positive family history of aortic dissection dramatically increases dissection risk in family members.

PubMed

Ma, Wei-Guo; Chou, Alan S; Mok, Salvior C M; Ziganshin, Bulat A; Charilaou, Paris; Zafar, Mohammad A; Sieller, Richard S; Tranquilli, Maryann; Rizzo, John A; Elefteriades, John A

2017-08-01

Although family members of patients with aortic dissection (AoD) are believed to be at higher risk of AoD, the prognostic value of family history (FH) of aortic dissection (FHAD) in family members of patients with AoD has not been studied rigorously. We seek examine how much a positive FHAD increases the risk of developing new aortic dissection (AoD) among first-degree relatives. Patients with AoD at our institution were analyzed for information of FHAD. Positive FHAD referred to that AoD occurred in index patient and one or more first-degree relatives. Negative FHAD was defined as the condition in which only one case of AoD (the index patient) occurred in the family. The age at AoD, exposure years in adulthood before AoD, and annual probability of AoD among first-degree relatives were compared between patients with negative and positive FHADs. FHAD was positive in 32 and negative in 68 among the 100 AoD patients with detailed family history information. Mean age at dissection was 59.9±14.7years. Compared to negative FHAD, patients with positive FHAD dissected at significantly younger age (54.7±16.8 vs 62.4±13.0years, p=0.013), had more AoD events in first-degree relatives (2.3±0.6 vs 1.0±0.0, p<0.001), and shorter exposure years per AoD event (18.3±6.7 vs 43.1±8.5, p<0.001). Annual probability of AoD per first-degree relative was 2.77 times higher in patients with positive than negative FHADs (0.0100±0.0057 vs 0.0036±0.0014, p<0.001). A positive FHAD confers a significantly increased risk of developing aortic dissection on family members, with a higher annual probability of aortic dissection, a shorter duration of "exposure time" before dissection occurs and a lower mean age at time of dissection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cryptosporidiosis susceptibility and risk: a case study.

PubMed

Makri, Anna; Modarres, Reza; Parkin, Rebecca

2004-02-01

Regional estimates of cryptosporidiosis risks from drinking water exposure were developed and validated, accounting for AIDS status and age. We constructed a model with probability distributions and point estimates representing Cryptosporidium in tap water, tap water consumed per day (exposure characterization); dose response, illness given infection, prolonged illness given illness; and three conditional probabilities describing the likelihood of case detection by active surveillance (health effects characterization). The model predictions were combined with population data to derive expected case numbers and incidence rates per 100,000 population, by age and AIDS status, borough specific and for New York City overall in 2000 (risk characterization). They were compared with same-year surveillance data to evaluate predictive ability, assumed to represent true incidence of waterborne cryptosporidiosis. The predicted mean risks, similar to previously published estimates for this region, overpredicted observed incidence-most extensively when accounting for AIDS status. The results suggest that overprediction may be due to conservative parameters applied to both non-AIDS and AIDS populations, and that biological differences for children need to be incorporated. Interpretations are limited by the unknown accuracy of available surveillance data, in addition to variability and uncertainty of model predictions. The model appears sensitive to geographical differences in AIDS prevalence. The use of surveillance data for validation and model parameters pertinent to susceptibility are discussed.

Birds and longevity: does flight driven aerobicity provide an oxidative sink?

PubMed

Hickey, Anthony J R; Jüllig, Mia; Aitken, Jacqueline; Loomes, Kerry; Hauber, Mark E; Phillips, Anthony R J

2012-04-01

Birds generally age slower and live longer than similar sized mammals. For birds this occurs despite elevated blood glucose levels that for mammals would in part define them as diabetic. However these data were acquired in respiration states that have little resemblance to conditions in healthy tissues and mitochondrial RS production is probably minimal in healthy animals. Indeed mitochondria probably act as net consumers rather than producers of RS. Here we propose that (1) if mitochondria are antioxidant systems, the greater mitochondrial mass in athletic species, such as birds, is advantageous as it should provide a substantial sink for RS. (2) The intense drive for aerobic performance and decreased body density to facilitate flight may explain the relative insensitivity of birds to insulin, as well as depressed insulin levels and apparent sensitization to glucagon. Glucagon also associates with the sirtuin protein family, most of which are associated with caloric restriction regulated pathways, mitochondrial biogenesis and life span extension. (3) We note that telomeres, which appear to be unusually long in birds, bind Sirtuins 2 and 4 and therefore may stabilize and protect nuclear DNA. Ultimately these flight driven responses may suppress somatic growth and protect DNA from oxidative damage that would otherwise lead to ageing and non-viral cancers. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ten-year incidence of dementia in a rural elderly US community population: the MoVIES Project.

PubMed

Ganguli, M; Dodge, H H; Chen, P; Belle, S; DeKosky, S T

2000-03-14

To determine incidence rates by age, sex, and education of overall dementia and probable/ possible AD in a largely rural community. Ten-year prospective study of a randomly selected community sample aged 65+; biennial cognitive screening followed by standardized clinical evaluation. Incidence rates were estimated for overall dementia (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 3rd ed., revised, criteria and Clinical Dementia Rating [CDR]) and for probable/possible AD (National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke-Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria). The cohort consisted of 1,298 individuals free of dementia at study entry. Among these, 199 incident (new) cases of overall (all-cause) dementia with CDR stage > or = 0.5, including 110 with CDR > or = 1, were detected during follow-up. Among the incident cases, 153 (76.9%) had probable/ possible AD. Age-specific incidence rates are reported for all dementia and for probable/possible AD, by sex and CDR stage. Among all-cause dementias with CDR = 0.5, controlling for age and education, men had a higher incidence rate than women. In the same group, those with less than high school education had significantly higher incidence rates than those with more education. Rates did not vary significantly by sex or education for probable/possible AD or for dementia with CDR > or = 1. Incidence rates of all dementias and of AD increased with age; men and those with lesser education had higher rates of possible/incipient dementia (CDR = 0.5) in this community. Potential explanations for these sex and education effects are discussed.

BIODEGRADATION PROBABILITY PROGRAM (BIODEG)

EPA Science Inventory

The Biodegradation Probability Program (BIODEG) calculates the probability that a chemical under aerobic conditions with mixed cultures of microorganisms will biodegrade rapidly or slowly. It uses fragment constants developed using multiple linear and non-linear regressions and d...

Diagnosis and management of polycystic ovary syndrome in the UK (2004–2014): a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Ding, Tao; Baio, Gianluca; Hardiman, Paul J; Petersen, Irene; Sammon, Cormac

2016-01-01

Objective To estimate the incidence and prevalence of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in UK primary care and investigate prescribing patterns before and after a PCOS diagnosis. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting UK primary care (2004–2014). Participants Women aged 15–45 years. Primary and secondary outcome measures The incidence and prevalence of diagnosed PCOS and probable PCOS (ie, those without a confirmed diagnosis but with at least 2 PCOS features recorded within 3 years). Among women with diagnosed or probable PCOS, the prevalence of prescribing of drugs typically used to treat PCOS was calculated prior to and in the 24 months after the diagnosis of PCOS. Results We identified 7233 women with PCOS diagnoses and 7057 women with records suggestive of probable PCOS, corresponding to incidence rates of 0.93 and 0.91 per 1000 person-years at risk (PYAR) and an overall rate of 1.84 per 1000 PYAR. Women aged 20–24 years and women living in deprived areas had the highest incidence of PCOS. The prevalence of PCOS in 2014 was ∼2%. The proportion of women with a prescription in the 24 months after their PCOS index date varied by drug type: 10.2% metformin, 15.2% combined oral contraceptives, 18.8% acne-related treatments, 1.93% clomiphene, 1.0% spironolactone, 0.28% cyproterone and 3.11% eflornithine. Acne-related treatments were more commonly used to treat probable (28.3%) than diagnosed (12.3%) cases, while metformin was prescribed much more commonly in diagnosed cases. Conclusions In conclusion, compared to rates estimated in community samples, the incidence and prevalence of women presenting in primary care with PCOS diagnoses and features are low, indicating that PCOS is an under-recognised condition. Although considerable variation is observed in treatments prescribed to women with PCOS, the treatments initiated following a confirmed diagnosis generally reflect the long-term prognostic concerns raised in PCOS consensuses. PMID:27401369

Effects of plain packaging, warning labels, and taxes on young people's predicted sugar-sweetened beverage preferences: an experimental study.

PubMed

Bollard, Tessa; Maubach, Ninya; Walker, Natalie; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona

2016-09-01

Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with increased risk of obesity, diabetes, heart disease and dental caries. Our aim was to assess the effects of plain packaging, warning labels, and a 20 % tax on predicted SSB preferences, beliefs and purchase probabilities amongst young people. A 2 × 3 × 2 between-group experimental study was conducted over a one-week period in August 2014. Intervention scenarios were delivered, and outcome data collected, via an anonymous online survey. Participants were 604 New Zealand young people aged 13-24 years who consumed soft drinks regularly. Participants were randomly allocated using a computer-generated algorithm to view one of 12 experimental conditions, specifically images of branded versus plain packaged SSBs, with either no warning, a text warning, or a graphic warning, and with or without a 20 % tax. Participant perceptions of the allocated SSB product and of those who might consume the product were measured using seven-point Likert scales. Purchase probabilities were measured using 11-point Juster scales. Six hundred and four young people completed the survey (51 % female, mean age 18 (SD 3.4) years). All three intervention scenarios had a significant negative effect on preferences for SSBs (plain packaging: F (6, 587) = 54.4, p <0.001; warning label: F (6, 588) = 19.8, p <0.001; 20 % tax: F (6, 587) = 11.3, p <0.001). Plain packaging and warning labels also had a significant negative impact on reported likelihood of purchasing SSB's (p = <0.001). A 20 % tax reduced participants' purchase probability but the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.2). Plain packaging and warning labels significantly reduce young people's predicted preferences for, and reported probability of purchasing, SSBs.

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitts, M. A.; Kerstman, E.; Butler, D. J.; Walton, M. E.; Minard, C. G.; Saile, L. G.; Toy, S.; Myers, J.

2008-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

A Methodology for Modeling Nuclear Power Plant Passive Component Aging in Probabilistic Risk Assessment under the Impact of Operating Conditions, Surveillance and Maintenance Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guler Yigitoglu, Askin

In the context of long operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) (i.e., 60-80 years, and beyond), investigation of the aging of passive systems, structures and components (SSCs) is important to assess safety margins and to decide on reactor life extension as indicated within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. In the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology, evaluating the potential significance of aging of passive SSCs on plant risk is challenging. Although passive SSC failure rates can be added as initiating event frequencies or basic event failure rates in the traditional event-tree/fault-tree methodology, these failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data which means that the true state of a specific plant is not reflected in a realistic manner on aging effects. Dynamic PRA methodologies have gained attention recently due to their capability to account for the plant state and thus address the difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics-based models (and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems). Physics-based models can capture the impact of complex aging processes (e.g., fatigue, stress corrosion cracking, flow-accelerated corrosion, etc.) on SSCs and can be utilized to estimate passive SSC failure rates using realistic NPP data from reactor simulation, as well as considering effects of surveillance and maintenance activities. The objectives of this dissertation are twofold: The development of a methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive SSC into a reactor simulation environment to provide a framework for evaluation of their risk contribution in both the dynamic and traditional PRA; and the demonstration of the methodology through its application to pressurizer surge line pipe weld and steam generator tubes in commercial nuclear power plants. In the proposed methodology, a multi-state physics based model is selected to represent the aging process. The model is modified via sojourn time approach to reflect the operational and maintenance history dependence of the transition rates. Thermal-hydraulic parameters of the model are calculated via the reactor simulation environment and uncertainties associated with both parameters and the models are assessed via a two-loop Monte Carlo approach (Latin hypercube sampling) to propagate input probability distributions through the physical model. The effort documented in this thesis towards this overall objective consists of : i) defining a process for selecting critical passive components and related aging mechanisms, ii) aging model selection, iii) calculating the probability that aging would cause the component to fail, iv) uncertainty/sensitivity analyses, v) procedure development for modifying an existing PRA to accommodate consideration of passive component failures, and, vi) including the calculated failure probability in the modified PRA. The proposed methodology is applied to pressurizer surge line pipe weld aging and steam generator tube degradation in pressurized water reactors.

Impact of Age on the Risk of Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in a Young Population: An Analysis Using the Predicted Probability Model.

PubMed

Jung, Yoon Suk; Park, Chan Hyuk; Kim, Nam Hee; Lee, Mi Yeon; Park, Dong Il

2017-09-01

The incidence of colorectal cancer is decreasing in adults aged ≥50 years and increasing in those aged <50 years. We aimed to establish risk stratification model for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACRN) in persons aged <50 years. We reviewed the records of participants who had undergone a colonoscopy as part of a health examination at two large medical examination centers in Korea. By using logistic regression analysis, we developed predicted probability models for ACRN in a population aged 30-49 years. Of 96,235 participants, 57,635 and 38,600 were included in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The predicted probability model considered age, sex, body mass index, family history of colorectal cancer, and smoking habits, as follows: Y ACRN  = -8.755 + 0.080·X age  - 0.055·X male  + 0.041·X BMI  + 0.200·X family_history_of_CRC  + 0.218·X former_smoker  + 0.644·X current_smoker . The optimal cutoff value for the predicted probability of ACRN by Youden index was 1.14%. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of our model for ACRN were higher than those of the previously established Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS), Korean Colorectal Screening (KCS), and Kaminski's scoring models [AUROC (95% confidence interval): model in the current study, 0.673 (0.648-0.697); vs. APCS, 0.588 (0.564-0.611), P < 0.001; vs. KCS, 0.602 (0.576-0.627), P < 0.001; and vs. Kaminski's model, 0.586 (0.560-0.612), P < 0.001]. In a young population, a predicted probability model can assess the risk of ACRN more accurately than existing models, including the APCS, KCS, and Kaminski's scoring models.

Understanding the ontogeny of foraging behaviour: insights from combining marine predator bio-logging with satellite-derived oceanography in hidden Markov models.

PubMed

Grecian, W James; Lane, Jude V; Michelot, Théo; Wade, Helen M; Hamer, Keith C

2018-06-01

The development of foraging strategies that enable juveniles to efficiently identify and exploit predictable habitat features is critical for survival and long-term fitness. In the marine environment, meso- and sub-mesoscale features such as oceanographic fronts offer a visible cue to enhanced foraging conditions, but how individuals learn to identify these features is a mystery. In this study, we investigate age-related differences in the fine-scale foraging behaviour of adult (aged ≥ 5 years) and immature (aged 2-4 years) northern gannets Morus bassanus Using high-resolution GPS-loggers, we reveal that adults have a much narrower foraging distribution than immature birds and much higher individual foraging site fidelity. By conditioning the transition probabilities of a hidden Markov model on satellite-derived measures of frontal activity, we then demonstrate that adults show a stronger response to frontal activity than immature birds, and are more likely to commence foraging behaviour as frontal intensity increases. Together, these results indicate that adult gannets are more proficient foragers than immatures, supporting the hypothesis that foraging specializations are learned during individual exploratory behaviour in early life. Such memory-based individual foraging strategies may also explain the extended period of immaturity observed in gannets and many other long-lived species. © 2018 The Authors.

[Asthma and cyclic neutropenia].

PubMed

Salazar Cabrera, A N; Berrón Pérez, R; Ortega Martell, J A; Onuma Takane, E

1996-01-01

We report a male with history of recurrent infections (recurrent oral aphtous disease [ROAD], middle ear infections and pharyngo amigdalitis) every 3 weeks since he was 7 months old. At the age of 3 years cyclic neutropenia was diagnosed with cyclic fall in the total neutrophil count in blood smear every 21 days and prophylactic antimicrobial therapy was indicated. Episodic events every 3 weeks of acute asthma and allergic rhinitis were detected at the age of 6 years old and specific immunotherapy to Bermuda grass was given during 3 years with markedly improvement in his allergic condition but not in the ROAD. He came back until the age of 16 with episodic acute asthma and ROAD. The total neutrophil count failed to 0 every 21 days and surprisingly the total eosinophil count increased up to 2,000 at the same time, with elevation of serum IgE (412 Ul/mL). Specific immunotherapy to D.pt. and Aller.a. and therapy with timomodulin was indicated. After 3 months we observed clinical improvement in the asthmatic condition and the ROAD disappeared, but the total neutrophil count did not improve. We present this case as a rare association between 2 diseases with probably no etiological relationship but may be physiopatological that could help to understand more the pathogenesis of asthma.

Non-Fickian dispersion of groundwater age

PubMed Central

Engdahl, Nicholas B.; Ginn, Timothy R.; Fogg, Graham E.

2014-01-01

We expand the governing equation of groundwater age to account for non-Fickian dispersive fluxes using continuous random walks. Groundwater age is included as an additional (fifth) dimension on which the volumetric mass density of water is distributed and we follow the classical random walk derivation now in five dimensions. The general solution of the random walk recovers the previous conventional model of age when the low order moments of the transition density functions remain finite at their limits and describes non-Fickian age distributions when the transition densities diverge. Previously published transition densities are then used to show how the added dimension in age affects the governing differential equations. Depending on which transition densities diverge, the resulting models may be nonlocal in time, space, or age and can describe asymptotic or pre-asymptotic dispersion. A joint distribution function of time and age transitions is developed as a conditional probability and a natural result of this is that time and age must always have identical transition rate functions. This implies that a transition density defined for age can substitute for a density in time and this has implications for transport model parameter estimation. We present examples of simulated age distributions from a geologically based, heterogeneous domain that exhibit non-Fickian behavior and show that the non-Fickian model provides better descriptions of the distributions than the Fickian model. PMID:24976651

Comparison of hoop-net trapping and visual surveys to monitor abundance of the Rio Grande cooter (Pseudemys gorzugi).

PubMed

Mali, Ivana; Duarte, Adam; Forstner, Michael R J

2018-01-01

Abundance estimates play an important part in the regulatory and conservation decision-making process. It is important to correct monitoring data for imperfect detection when using these data to track spatial and temporal variation in abundance, especially in the case of rare and elusive species. This paper presents the first attempt to estimate abundance of the Rio Grande cooter ( Pseudemys gorzugi ) while explicitly considering the detection process. Specifically, in 2016 we monitored this rare species at two sites along the Black River, New Mexico via traditional baited hoop-net traps and less invasive visual surveys to evaluate the efficacy of these two sampling designs. We fitted the Huggins closed-capture estimator to estimate capture probabilities using the trap data and distance sampling models to estimate detection probabilities using the visual survey data. We found that only the visual survey with the highest number of observed turtles resulted in similar abundance estimates to those estimated using the trap data. However, the estimates of abundance from the remaining visual survey data were highly variable and often underestimated abundance relative to the estimates from the trap data. We suspect this pattern is related to changes in the basking behavior of the species and, thus, the availability of turtles to be detected even though all visual surveys were conducted when environmental conditions were similar. Regardless, we found that riverine habitat conditions limited our ability to properly conduct visual surveys at one site. Collectively, this suggests visual surveys may not be an effective sample design for this species in this river system. When analyzing the trap data, we found capture probabilities to be highly variable across sites and between age classes and that recapture probabilities were much lower than initial capture probabilities, highlighting the importance of accounting for detectability when monitoring this species. Although baited hoop-net traps seem to be an effective sampling design, it is important to note that this method required a relatively high trap effort to reliably estimate abundance. This information will be useful when developing a larger-scale, long-term monitoring program for this species of concern.

Stochastic modelling of basal temperatures in divide regions of the Antarctic ice sheet over the last 1.5 million years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Liefferinge, Brice; Pattyn, Frank; Cavitte, Marie G. P.; Young, Duncan A.; Roberts, Jason L.

2017-04-01

The quest for oldest ice in Antarctica has recently been launched through an EU H2020 project (Beyond EPICA - Oldest Ice) and aims at identifying suitable areas for a potential future drilling. Retrieving an ice core of such age is essential to understand the relation between orbital changes and atmospheric composition during the mid-Pliocene transition. However, sites for a potential undisturbed record of 1.5 million-year old ice in Antarctica are difficult to find and require slow-moving ice (preferably an ice divide) and basal conditions that are not disturbed by large topographic variations. Furthermore, ice should be sufficiently thick but cold basal conditions should still prevail, since basal melting would destroy the bottom layers. Therefore, ice-flow conditions and thermodynamic characteristics are crucial for identifying potential locations of undisturbed ice. Van Liefferinge and Pattyn (2013) identified suitable areas based on a pan-Antarctic simplified thermodynamic ice sheet model and demonstrated that uncertainty in geothermal conditions remain a major unknown. In order to refine these estimates, and provide uncertainties, we employ a full thermo-mechanically coupled higher-order ice sheet model (Pattyn, 2003; Pattyn et al., 2004). Initial conditions for the calculations are based on an inversion of basal slipperiness, based on observed surface topography (Pollard and DeConto, 2012; Pattyn, in prep.). Uncertainties in geothermal conditions are introduced using the convolution of two Gaussian probability density functions: (a) the reconstruction of the Antarctic ice sheet geometry and testing ice thickness variability over the last 2 million years (Pollard and DeConto, 2009) and (b) the surface temperature reconstruction over the same period (Snyder et al., 2016). The standard deviation, the skewness and the kurtosis of the whole Antarctic ice sheet are analyzed to observe likely probable melt conditions. Finally, we focus on model results in the divide area between Dome Concordia and Dome Fuji, and compare to newly acquired radar data in the region (OIA survey).

Cyber-Physical Correlations for Infrastructure Resilience: A Game-Theoretic Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S; He, Fei; Ma, Chris Y. T.

In several critical infrastructures, the cyber and physical parts are correlated so that disruptions to one affect the other and hence the whole system. These correlations may be exploited to strategically launch components attacks, and hence must be accounted for ensuring the infrastructure resilience, specified by its survival probability. We characterize the cyber-physical interactions at two levels: (i) the failure correlation function specifies the conditional survival probability of cyber sub-infrastructure given the physical sub-infrastructure as a function of their marginal probabilities, and (ii) the individual survival probabilities of both sub-infrastructures are characterized by first-order differential conditions. We formulate a resiliencemore » problem for infrastructures composed of discrete components as a game between the provider and attacker, wherein their utility functions consist of an infrastructure survival probability term and a cost term expressed in terms of the number of components attacked and reinforced. We derive Nash Equilibrium conditions and sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of infrastructure resilience on the cost term, correlation function and sub-infrastructure survival probabilities. These results generalize earlier ones based on linear failure correlation functions and independent component failures. We apply the results to models of cloud computing infrastructures and energy grids.« less

Development of a high-temperature durable catalyst for use in catalytic combustors for advanced automotive gas turbine engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, H.; Snow, G. C.; Chu, E. K.; Chang, R. L. S.; Angwin, M. J.; Pessagno, S. L.

1981-09-01

Durable catalytic reactors for advanced gas turbine engines were developed. Objectives were: to evaluate furnace aging as a cost effective catalytic reactor screening test, measure reactor degradation as a function of furnace aging, demonstrate 1,000 hours of combustion durability, and define a catalytic reactor system with a high probability of successful integration into an automotive gas turbine engine. Fourteen different catalytic reactor concepts were evaluated, leading to the selection of one for a durability combustion test with diesel fuel for combustion conditions. Eight additional catalytic reactors were evaluated and one of these was successfully combustion tested on propane fuel. This durability reactor used graded cell honeycombs and a combination of noble metal and metal oxide catalysts. The reactor was catalytically active and structurally sound at the end of the durability test.

High prevalence of campylobacter excretors among Liberian children related to environmental conditions.

PubMed

Mølbak, K; Højlyng, N; Gaarslev, K

1988-04-01

Campylobacter was the bacterial pathogen most prevalent in 859 children, aged 6-59 months, examined in a house-to-house diarrhoea survey in two Liberian communities. 44.9% of the children from an urban slum and 28.4% from a rural area were excretors. Since the prevalence of diarrhoea was very high and consequently many convalescent carriers were found, it was not possible to evaluate the pathogenic role of campylobacter. The excretor rate increased with age and was significantly correlated to the use of supplementary feeding, inversely correlated to the quality of the water supply, and also associated with helminthic infestation. Results from re-examination of 172 children suggested a high intensity of transmission. The findings all indicate the existence of a heavy environmental contamination with campylobacter, probably of both human and animal faecal origin.

High prevalence of campylobacter excretors among Liberian children related to environmental conditions.

PubMed Central

Mølbak, K.; Højlyng, N.; Gaarslev, K.

1988-01-01

Campylobacter was the bacterial pathogen most prevalent in 859 children, aged 6-59 months, examined in a house-to-house diarrhoea survey in two Liberian communities. 44.9% of the children from an urban slum and 28.4% from a rural area were excretors. Since the prevalence of diarrhoea was very high and consequently many convalescent carriers were found, it was not possible to evaluate the pathogenic role of campylobacter. The excretor rate increased with age and was significantly correlated to the use of supplementary feeding, inversely correlated to the quality of the water supply, and also associated with helminthic infestation. Results from re-examination of 172 children suggested a high intensity of transmission. The findings all indicate the existence of a heavy environmental contamination with campylobacter, probably of both human and animal faecal origin. PMID:3356221

Development of a high-temperature durable catalyst for use in catalytic combustors for advanced automotive gas turbine engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tong, H.; Snow, G. C.; Chu, E. K.; Chang, R. L. S.; Angwin, M. J.; Pessagno, S. L.

1981-01-01

Durable catalytic reactors for advanced gas turbine engines were developed. Objectives were: to evaluate furnace aging as a cost effective catalytic reactor screening test, measure reactor degradation as a function of furnace aging, demonstrate 1,000 hours of combustion durability, and define a catalytic reactor system with a high probability of successful integration into an automotive gas turbine engine. Fourteen different catalytic reactor concepts were evaluated, leading to the selection of one for a durability combustion test with diesel fuel for combustion conditions. Eight additional catalytic reactors were evaluated and one of these was successfully combustion tested on propane fuel. This durability reactor used graded cell honeycombs and a combination of noble metal and metal oxide catalysts. The reactor was catalytically active and structurally sound at the end of the durability test.

Late-life factors associated with healthy aging in older men.

PubMed

Bell, Christina L; Chen, Randi; Masaki, Kamal; Yee, Priscilla; He, Qimei; Grove, John; Donlon, Timothy; Curb, J David; Willcox, D Craig; Poon, Leonard W; Willcox, Bradley J

2014-05-01

To identify potentially modifiable late-life biological, lifestyle, and sociodemographic factors associated with overall and healthy survival to age 85. Prospective longitudinal cohort study with 21 years of follow-up (1991-2012). Hawaii Lifespan Study. American men of Japanese ancestry (mean age 75.7, range 71-82) without baseline major clinical morbidity and functional impairments (N = 1,292). Overall survival and healthy survival (free from six major chronic diseases and without physical or cognitive impairment) to age 85. Factors were measured at late-life baseline examinations (1991-1993). Of 1,292 participants, 1,000 (77%) survived to 85 (34% healthy) and 309 (24%) to 95 (<1% healthy). Late-life factors associated with survival and healthy survival included biological (body mass index, ankle-brachial index, cognitive score, blood pressure, inflammatory markers), lifestyle (smoking, alcohol use, physical activity), and sociodemographic factors (education, marital status). Cumulative late-life baseline risk factor models demonstrated that age-standardized (at 70) probability of survival to 95 ranged from 27% (no factors) to 7% (≥ 5 factors); probability of survival to 100 ranged from 4% (no factors) to 0.1% (≥ 5 factors). Age-standardized (at 70) probability of healthy survival to 90 ranged from 4% (no factors) to 0.01% (≥ 5 factors). There were nine healthy survivors at 95 and one healthy survivor at 100. Several potentially modifiable risk factors in men in late life (mean age 75.7) were associated with markedly greater probability of subsequent healthy survival and longevity. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

Probability: A Matter of Life and Death

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hassani, Mehdi; Kippen, Rebecca; Mills, Terence

2016-01-01

Life tables are mathematical tables that document probabilities of dying and life expectancies at different ages in a society. Thus, the life table contains some essential features of the health of a population. Probability is often regarded as a difficult branch of mathematics. Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts…

Mood disturbance and depression in Arab women following hospitalisation from acute cardiac conditions: a cross-sectional study from Qatar.

PubMed

Donnelly, Tam Truong; Al Suwaidi, Jassim Mohd; Al-Qahtani, Awad; Asaad, Nidal; Fung, Tak; Singh, Rajvir; Qader, Najlaa Abdul

2016-07-07

Depression is associated with increased morbidity and mortality rates among cardiovascular patients. Depressed patients have three times higher risk of death than those who are not. We sought to determine the presence of depressive symptoms, and whether gender and age are associated with depression among Arab patients hospitalised with cardiac conditions in a Middle Eastern country. Using a non-probability convenient sampling technique, a cross-sectional survey was conducted with 1000 Arab patients ≥20 years who were admitted to cardiology units between 2013 and 2014 at the Heart Hospital in Qatar. Patients were interviewed 3 days after admission following the cardiac event. Surveys included demographic and clinical characteristics, and the Arabic version of the Beck Depression Inventory Second Edition (BDI-II). Depression was assessed by BDI-II clinical classification scale. 15% of the patients had mild mood disturbance and 5% had symptoms of clinical depression. Twice as many females than males suffered from mild mood disturbance and clinical depression symptoms, the majority of females were in the age group 50 years and above, whereas males were in the age group 40-49 years. χ(2) Tests and multivariate logistic regression analyses indicated that gender and age were statistically significantly related to depression (p<0.001 for all). Older Arab women are more likely to develop mood disturbance and depression after being hospitalised with acute cardiac condition. Gender and age differences approach, and routine screening for depression should be conducted with all cardiovascular patients, especially for females in the older age groups. Mental health counselling should be available for all cardiovascular patients who exhibit depressive symptoms. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Translational Genomics Research Institute: Identification of Pathways Enriched with Condition-Specific Statistical Dependencies Across Four Subtypes of Glioblastoma Multiforme | Office of Cancer Genomics

Cancer.gov

Evaluation of Differential DependencY (EDDY) is a statistical test for the differential dependency relationship of a set of genes between two given conditions. For each condition, possible dependency network structures are enumerated and their likelihoods are computed to represent a probability distribution of dependency networks. The difference between the probability distributions of dependency networks is computed between conditions, and its statistical significance is evaluated with random permutations of condition labels on the samples.  

Translational Genomics Research Institute (TGen): Identification of Pathways Enriched with Condition-Specific Statistical Dependencies Across Four Subtypes of Glioblastoma Multiforme | Office of Cancer Genomics

Cancer.gov

Evaluation of Differential DependencY (EDDY) is a statistical test for the differential dependency relationship of a set of genes between two given conditions. For each condition, possible dependency network structures are enumerated and their likelihoods are computed to represent a probability distribution of dependency networks. The difference between the probability distributions of dependency networks is computed between conditions, and its statistical significance is evaluated with random permutations of condition labels on the samples.  

Psychomotor development and learning difficulties in preschool children with probable attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: An epidemiological study in Navarre and La Rioja.

PubMed

Marín-Méndez, J J; Borra-Ruiz, M C; Álvarez-Gómez, M J; Soutullo Esperón, C

2017-10-01

ADHD symptoms begin to appear at preschool age. ADHD may have a significant negative impact on academic performance. In Spain, there are no standardized tools for detecting ADHD at preschool age, nor is there data about the incidence of this disorder. To evaluate developmental factors and learning difficulties associated with probable ADHD and to assess the impact of ADHD in school performance. We conducted a population-based study with a stratified multistage proportional cluster sample design. We found significant differences between probable ADHD and parents' perception of difficulties in expressive language, comprehension, and fine motor skills, as well as in emotions, concentration, behaviour, and relationships. Around 34% of preschool children with probable ADHD showed global learning difficulties, mainly in patients with the inattentive type. According to the multivariate analysis, learning difficulties were significantly associated with both delayed psychomotor development during the first 3 years of life (OR: 5.57) as assessed by parents, and probable ADHD (OR: 2.34) CONCLUSIONS: There is a connection between probable ADHD in preschool children and parents' perception of difficulties in several dimensions of development and learning. Early detection of ADHD at preschool ages is necessary to start prompt and effective clinical and educational interventions. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Exploring the Specifications of Spatial Adjacencies and Weights in Bayesian Spatial Modeling with Intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive Priors in a Small-area Study of Fall Injuries

PubMed Central

Law, Jane

2016-01-01

Intrinsic conditional autoregressive modeling in a Bayeisan hierarchical framework has been increasingly applied in small-area ecological studies. This study explores the specifications of spatial structure in this Bayesian framework in two aspects: adjacency, i.e., the set of neighbor(s) for each area; and (spatial) weight for each pair of neighbors. Our analysis was based on a small-area study of falling injuries among people age 65 and older in Ontario, Canada, that was aimed to estimate risks and identify risk factors of such falls. In the case study, we observed incorrect adjacencies information caused by deficiencies in the digital map itself. Further, when equal weights was replaced by weights based on a variable of expected count, the range of estimated risks increased, the number of areas with probability of estimated risk greater than one at different probability thresholds increased, and model fit improved. More importantly, significance of a risk factor diminished. Further research to thoroughly investigate different methods of variable weights; quantify the influence of specifications of spatial weights; and develop strategies for better defining spatial structure of a map in small-area analysis in Bayesian hierarchical spatial modeling is recommended. PMID:29546147

Probable topiramate-induced diarrhea in a 2-month-old breast-fed child - A case report.

PubMed

Westergren, Tone; Hjelmeland, Knut; Kristoffersen, Bjørg; Johannessen, Svein Ivar; Kalikstad, Betty

2014-01-01

An infant developed a severe condition of recurrent and persistent watery diarrhea at 40 days of age. The child had been partially breast-fed, and the mother used topiramate for epilepsy. Hospital examination excluded a viral or bacterial infection and failed to identify any other potential cause. After two weeks, topiramate exposure was suspected to be the cause, and breast-feeding was suspended. The diarrhea ceased within 2 days. Analysis of the breast milk showed a topiramate concentration of 15.7 μmol/L (5.3 μg/mL). There is little information on the use of topiramate in breast-feeding women. The potential effects on the children are not known. Topiramate passes into breast milk, and the concentration may equal the therapeutic plasma concentration. In this case, the infant may have ingested up to 40% of the mother's weight-adjusted dose. Diarrhea is a well-known adverse reaction to topiramate and has the potential to cause serious electrolyte disturbances in neonates and infants. The condition improved rapidly after suspension of breast-feeding. Topiramate in breast milk may reach levels that cause adverse effects in infants. Based on the adverse reaction profile of topiramate and the milk concentration, the diarrhea was assessed as a probable adverse drug reaction in the infant.

Conditional Probabilities and Collapse in Quantum Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laura, Roberto; Vanni, Leonardo

2008-09-01

We show that including both the system and the apparatus in the quantum description of the measurement process, and using the concept of conditional probabilities, it is possible to deduce the statistical operator of the system after a measurement with a given result, which gives the probability distribution for all possible consecutive measurements on the system. This statistical operator, representing the state of the system after the first measurement, is in general not the same that would be obtained using the postulate of collapse.

Probabilities of good, marginal, and poor flying conditions for space shuttle ferry flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whiting, D. M.; Guttman, N. B.

1977-01-01

Empirical probabilities are provided for good, marginal, and poor flying weather for ferrying the Space Shuttle Orbiter from Edwards AFB, California, to Kennedy Space Center, Florida, and from Edwards AFB to Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama. Results are given by month for each overall route plus segments of each route. The criteria for defining a day as good, marginal, or poor and the method of computing the relative frequencies and conditional probabilities for monthly reference periods are described.

Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odafe, Victor U.

2011-01-01

Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

The Efficacy of Using Diagrams When Solving Probability Word Problems in College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beitzel, Brian D.; Staley, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Previous experiments have shown a deleterious effect of visual representations on college students' ability to solve total- and joint-probability word problems. The present experiments used conditional-probability problems, known to be more difficult than total- and joint-probability problems. The diagram group was instructed in how to use tree…

Timing of Alcohol Use and the Incidence of Premenstrual Syndrome and Probable Premenstrual Dysphoric Disorder

PubMed Central

Hankinson, Susan E.; Johnson, Susan R.; Manson, JoAnn E.

2009-01-01

Abstract Background Relatively little is known about factors that influence the initial development of premenstrual syndrome (PMS) and premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD), although these conditions are common in reproductive age women and are associated with substantial impairment. Previous studies have observed higher alcohol use in prevalent PMS/PMDD patients compared with controls, but it is unknown if drinking predisposes women to developing these disorders or is instead influenced by symptom experience. Methods To address this, we conducted a case-control study nested within the prospective Nurses' Health Study II (NHS2). Participants were a subset of women aged 27–44 and free from PMS at baseline (1991), including 1057 women who developed PMS over 10 years of follow-up, 762 of whom also met criteria consistent with PMDD, and 1968 control women. Alcohol use at various time periods, before and after onset of menstrual symptoms, was assessed by questionnaire. Results Overall, alcohol use was not strongly associated with the incidence of PMS and probable PMDD. Relative risks (RR) for women with the highest cumulative alcohol use vs. never drinkers were 1.19 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-1.67) for PMS and 1.28 (95% CI 0.86-1.91) for PMDD, although results did suggest a positive relationship in leaner women (p trend = 0.002). Women who first used alcohol before age 18 had an RR of PMS of 1.26 (95% CI 0.91-1.75) compared with never drinkers; the comparable RR for PMDD was 1.35 (95% CI 0.93-1.98). Conclusions These findings suggest alcohol use is not strongly associated with the development of PMS and PMDD, although early age at first use and long-term use may minimally increase risk. PMID:20044856

Timing of alcohol use and the incidence of premenstrual syndrome and probable premenstrual dysphoric disorder.

PubMed

Bertone-Johnson, Elizabeth R; Hankinson, Susan E; Johnson, Susan R; Manson, JoAnn E

2009-12-01

Relatively little is known about factors that influence the initial development of premenstrual syndrome (PMS) and premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD), although these conditions are common in reproductive age women and are associated with substantial impairment. Previous studies have observed higher alcohol use in prevalent PMS/PMDD patients compared with controls, but it is unknown if drinking predisposes women to developing these disorders or is instead influenced by symptom experience. To address this, we conducted a case-control study nested within the prospective Nurses' Health Study II (NHS2). Participants were a subset of women aged 27-44 and free from PMS at baseline (1991), including 1057 women who developed PMS over 10 years of follow-up, 762 of whom also met criteria consistent with PMDD, and 1968 control women. Alcohol use at various time periods, before and after onset of menstrual symptoms, was assessed by questionnaire. Overall, alcohol use was not strongly associated with the incidence of PMS and probable PMDD. Relative risks (RR) for women with the highest cumulative alcohol use vs. never drinkers were 1.19 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-1.67) for PMS and 1.28 (95% CI 0.86-1.91) for PMDD, although results did suggest a positive relationship in leaner women (p trend=0.002). Women who first used alcohol before age 18 had an RR of PMS of 1.26 (95% CI 0.91-1.75) compared with never drinkers; the comparable RR for PMDD was 1.35 (95% CI 0.93-1.98). These findings suggest alcohol use is not strongly associated with the development of PMS and PMDD, although early age at first use and long-term use may minimally increase risk.

Inferring Complex Aquifer Structure from the Combined Use of Hydraulic and Groundwater Age Data in Groundater Flow Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leray, S.; De Dreuzy, J.; Aquilina, L.; Labasque, T.; Bour, O.

2011-12-01

While groundwater age data have been classically used to determine aquifer hydraulic properties such as recharge and/or porosity, we show here that they contain more valuable information on aquifer structure in complex hard rock contexts. Our numerical modeling study is based on the developed crystalline aquifer of Ploemeur (Brittany, France) characterized by two transmissive structures: the interface between an intruding granite and overlying micaschists dipping moderately to the North and a steeply dipping fault striking North 20. We explore the definition and evolution of the supplying volume to the pumping well of the Ploemeur medium under steady-state conditions. We first show that, with the help of general observations on the site, hydraulic data, such as piezometric levels or transmissivity derived from pumping tests, can be used to refine recharge spatial distribution and rate and bulk aquifer transmissivity. We then model the effect of aquifer porosity and thickness on environmental tracer concentrations. Porosity gives the range of the mean residence time, shifting the probability density function of residence times along the time axis whereas aquifer thickness affects the shape of the residence times distribution. It also modifies the mean concentration of CFCs taken as the convolution product of the atmospheric tracer concentration with the probability density function of residence times. Because porosity may be estimated by petrologic and gravimetric investigations, the thickness of the aquifer can be advantageously constrained by groundwater ages and then compared to other results from inversion of geophysical data. More generally, we advocate using groundwater age data at the aquifer discharge locations to constrain complex aquifer structures when recharge and porosity can be fixed by other means.

A systematic review of intervention thresholds based on FRAX : A report prepared for the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group and the International Osteoporosis Foundation

PubMed Central

Kanis, John A; Harvey, Nicholas C; Cooper, Cyrus; Johansson, Helena; Odén, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V

2016-01-01

In most assessment guidelines, treatment for osteoporosis is recommended in individuals with prior fragility fractures, especially fractures at spine and hip. However, for those without prior fractures, the intervention thresholds can be derived using different methods. The aim of this report was to undertake a systematic review of the available information on the use of FRAX® in assessment guidelines, in particular the setting of thresholds and their validation. We identified 120 guidelines or academic papers that incorporated FRAX of which 38 provided no clear statement on how the fracture probabilities derived are to be used in decision-making in clinical practice. The remainder recommended a fixed intervention threshold (n=58), most commonly as a component of more complex guidance (e.g. bone mineral density (BMD) thresholds) or an age-dependent threshold (n=22). Two guidelines have adopted both age-dependent and fixed thresholds. Fixed probability thresholds have ranged from 4 to 20 % for a major fracture and 1.3-5 % for hip fracture. More than one half (39) of the 58 publications identified utilized a threshold probability of 20 % for a major osteoporotic fracture, many of which also mention a hip fracture probability of 3 % as an alternative intervention threshold. In nearly all instances, no rationale is provided other than that this was the threshold used by the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the US. Where undertaken, fixed probability thresholds have been determined from tests of discrimination (Hong Kong), health economic assessment (US, Switzerland), to match the prevalence of osteoporosis (China) or to align with pre-existing guidelines or reimbursement criteria (Japan, Poland). Age-dependent intervention thresholds, first developed by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG), are based on the rationale that if a woman with a prior fragility fracture is eligible for treatment, then, at any given age, a man or woman with the same fracture probability but in the absence of a previous fracture (i.e. at the ‘fracture threshold’) should also be eligible. Under current NOGG guidelines, based on age-dependent probability thresholds, inequalities in access to therapy arise especially at older ages (≥ 70 years) depending on the presence or absence of a prior fracture. An alternative threshold using a hybrid model reduces this disparity. The use of FRAX (fixed or age-dependent thresholds) as the gateway to assessment identifies individuals at high risk more effectively than the use of BMD. However, the setting of intervention thresholds need to be country-specific. PMID:27465509

A unified degree day model describes survivorship of Copitarsia corruda Pogue & Simmons (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) at different constant temperatures.

PubMed

Gómez, N N; Venette, R C; Gould, J R; Winograd, D F

2009-02-01

Predictions of survivorship are critical to quantify the probability of establishment by an alien invasive species, but survival curves rarely distinguish between the effects of temperature on development versus senescence. We report chronological and physiological age-based survival curves for a potentially invasive noctuid, recently described as Copitarsia corruda Pogue & Simmons, collected from Peru and reared on asparagus at six constant temperatures between 9.7 and 34.5 degrees C. Copitarsia spp. are not known to occur in the United States but are routinely intercepted at ports of entry. Chronological age survival curves differ significantly among temperatures. Survivorship at early age after hatch is greatest at lower temperatures and declines as temperature increases. Mean longevity was 220 (+/-13 SEM) days at 9.7 degrees C. Physiological age survival curves constructed with developmental base temperature (7.2 degrees C) did not correspond to those constructed with a senescence base temperature (5.9 degrees C). A single degree day survival curve with an appropriate temperature threshold based on senescence adequately describes survivorship under non-stress temperature conditions (5.9-24.9 degrees C).

The age of the Tunas formation in the Sauce Grande basin-Ventana foldbelt (Argentina): Implications for the Permian evolution of the southwestern margin of Gondwana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Gamundí, Oscar; Fildani, Andrea; Weislogel, Amy; Rossello, Eduardo

2013-08-01

New SHRIMP radiogenic isotope dating on zircons in tuffs (280.8 ± 1.9 Ma) confirms the Early Permian (Artinskian) age of the uppermost section of the Tunas Formation. Tuff-rich levels in the Tunas Formation are exposed in the Ventana foldbelt of central Argentina; they are part of a deltaic to fluvial section corresponding to the late overfilled stage of the Late Paleozoic Sauce Grande foreland basin. Recent SHRIMP dating of zircons from the basal Choiyoi volcanics exposed in western Argentina yielded an age of 281.4 ± 2.5 Ma (Rocha-Campos et al., 2011). The new data for the Tunas tuffs suggest that the volcanism present in the Sauce Grande basin can be considered as the distal equivalent of the earliest episodes of the Choiyoi volcanism of western Argentina. From the palaeoclimatic viewpoint the new Tunas SHRIMP age confirms that by early Artinskian glacial conditions ceased in the Sauce Grande basin and, probably, in adajacent basins in western Gondwana.

A mediation model to explain decision making under conditions of risk among adolescents: the role of fluid intelligence and probabilistic reasoning.

PubMed

Donati, Maria Anna; Panno, Angelo; Chiesi, Francesca; Primi, Caterina

2014-01-01

This study tested the mediating role of probabilistic reasoning ability in the relationship between fluid intelligence and advantageous decision making among adolescents in explicit situations of risk--that is, in contexts in which information on the choice options (gains, losses, and probabilities) were explicitly presented at the beginning of the task. Participants were 282 adolescents attending high school (77% males, mean age = 17.3 years). We first measured fluid intelligence and probabilistic reasoning ability. Then, to measure decision making under explicit conditions of risk, participants performed the Game of Dice Task, in which they have to decide among different alternatives that are explicitly linked to a specific amount of gain or loss and have obvious winning probabilities that are stable over time. Analyses showed a significant positive indirect effect of fluid intelligence on advantageous decision making through probabilistic reasoning ability that acted as a mediator. Specifically, fluid intelligence may enhance ability to reason in probabilistic terms, which in turn increases the likelihood of advantageous choices when adolescents are confronted with an explicit decisional context. Findings show that in experimental paradigm settings, adolescents are able to make advantageous decisions using cognitive abilities when faced with decisions under explicit risky conditions. This study suggests that interventions designed to promote probabilistic reasoning, for example by incrementing the mathematical prerequisites necessary to reason in probabilistic terms, may have a positive effect on adolescents' decision-making abilities.

Teacher ratings of DSM-III-R symptoms for the disruptive behavior disorders.

PubMed

Pelham, W E; Gnagy, E M; Greenslade, K E; Milich, R

1992-03-01

Ratings were collected on a rating scale comprised of the DSM-III-R diagnostic criteria for disruptive behavior disorders. Teacher ratings were obtained for 931 boys in regular classrooms in grades K through 8 from around North America. Means and standard deviations for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), oppositional-defiant disorder (ODD), and conduct disorder (CD) scales are reported by age. Frequencies of DSM-III-R symptoms are reported by age, and suggested diagnostic cutoffs are discussed. A factor analysis revealed three factors: one reflecting ODD and several CD symptoms, one on which ADHD symptoms of inattention loaded, and one comprised of ADHD impulsivity/overactivity symptoms. Conditional probability analyses revealed that several hallmark symptoms of ADHD had very poor predictive power, whereas combinations of symptoms from the two ADHD factors had good predictive power. Combinations of ODD symptoms also had very high predictive power. The limited utility of teacher ratings in assessing symptoms of conduct disorder in this age range is discussed.

Relative Contributions of Three Descriptive Methods: Implications for Behavioral Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pence, Sacha T.; Roscoe, Eileen M.; Bourret, Jason C.; Ahearn, William H.

2009-01-01

This study compared the outcomes of three descriptive analysis methods--the ABC method, the conditional probability method, and the conditional and background probability method--to each other and to the results obtained from functional analyses. Six individuals who had been diagnosed with developmental delays and exhibited problem behavior…

Statistics concerning the Apollo command module water landing, including the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, sucessful impact, and body X-axis loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitnah, A. M.; Howes, D. B.

1971-01-01

Statistical information for the Apollo command module water landings is presented. This information includes the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, a successful impact, and body X-axis loads of various magnitudes.

Combination of a Stressor-Response Model with a Conditional Probability Analysis Approach for Developing Candidate Criteria from MBSS

EPA Science Inventory

I show that a conditional probability analysis using a stressor-response model based on a logistic regression provides a useful approach for developing candidate water quality criteria from empirical data, such as the Maryland Biological Streams Survey (MBSS) data.

Spatial prediction models for the probable biological condition of streams and rivers in the USA

EPA Science Inventory

The National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) is a probability-based survey conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency and its state and tribal partners. It provides information on the ecological condition of the rivers and streams in the conterminous USA, and the ex...

Random forest models for the probable biological condition of streams and rivers in the USA

EPA Science Inventory

The National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) is a probability based survey conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency and its state and tribal partners. It provides information on the ecological condition of the rivers and streams in the conterminous USA, and the ex...

GEOGRAPHIC-SPECIFIC WATER QUALITY CRITERIA DEVELOPMENT WITH MONITORING DATA USING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES - A PROPOSED APPROACH

EPA Science Inventory

A conditional probability approach using monitoring data to develop geographic-specific water quality criteria for protection of aquatic life is presented. Typical methods to develop criteria using existing monitoring data are limited by two issues: (1) how to extrapolate to an...

Variables that influence BRAF mutation probability: A next-generation sequencing, non-interventional investigation of BRAFV600 mutation status in melanoma.

PubMed

Gaiser, Maria Rita; Skorokhod, Alexander; Gransheier, Diana; Weide, Benjamin; Koch, Winfried; Schif, Birgit; Enk, Alexander; Garbe, Claus; Bauer, Jürgen

2017-01-01

The incidence of melanoma, particularly in older patients, has steadily increased over the past few decades. Activating mutations of BRAF, the majority occurring in BRAFV600, are frequently detected in melanoma; however, the prognostic significance remains unclear. This study aimed to define the probability and distribution of BRAFV600 mutations, and the clinico-pathological factors that may affect BRAF mutation status, in patients with advanced melanoma using next-generation sequencing. This was a non-interventional, retrospective study of BRAF mutation testing at two German centers, in Heidelberg and Tübingen. Archival tumor samples from patients with histologically confirmed melanoma (stage IIIB, IIIC, IV) were analyzed using PCR amplification and deep sequencing. Clinical, histological, and mutation data were collected. The statistical influence of patient- and tumor-related characteristics on BRAFV600 mutation status was assessed using multiple logistic regression (MLR) and a prediction profiler. BRAFV600 mutation status was assessed in 453 samples. Mutations were detected in 57.6% of patients (n = 261), with 48.1% (n = 102) at the Heidelberg site and 66.0% (n = 159) at the Tübingen site. The decreasing influence of increasing age on mutation probability was quantified. A main effects MLR model identified age (p = 0.0001), center (p = 0.0004), and melanoma subtype (p = 0.014) as significantly influencing BRAFV600 mutation probability; ultraviolet (UV) exposure showed a statistical trend (p = 0.1419). An interaction model of age versus other variables showed that center (p<0.0001) and melanoma subtype (p = 0.0038) significantly influenced BRAF mutation probability; age had a statistically significant effect only as part of an interaction with both UV exposure (p = 0.0110) and melanoma subtype (p = 0.0134). This exploratory study highlights that testing center, melanoma subtype, and age in combination with UV exposure and melanoma subtype significantly influence BRAFV600 mutation probability in patients with melanoma. Further validation of this model, in terms of reproducibility and broader relevance, is required.

Apparent inferiority of first-time breeders in the kittiwake: The role of heterogeneity among age classes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Monnat, J.-Y.

2000-01-01

1. Many studies have provided evidence that first-time breeders have a lower survival, a lower probability of success, or of breeding, in the following year. Hypotheses based on reproductive costs have often been proposed to explain this. However, because of the intrinsic relationship between age and experience, the apparent inferiority of first-time breeders at the population level may result from selection, and experience may not influence performance within each individual. In this paper we address the question of phenotypic correlations between fitness components. This addresses differences in individual quality, a prerequisite for a selection process to occur. We also test the hypothesis of an influence of experience on these components while taking age and reproductive success into account: two factors likely to play a key role in a selection process. 2. Using data from a long-term study on the kittiwake, we found that first-time breeders have a lower probability of success, a lower survival and a lower probability of breeding in the next year than experienced breeders. However, neither experienced nor inexperienced breeders have a lower survival or a lower probability of breeding in the following year than birds that skipped a breeding opportunity. This suggests heterogeneity in quality among individuals. 3. Failed birds have a lower survival and a lower probability of breeding in the following year regardless of experience. This can be interpreted in the light of the selection hypothesis. The inferiority of inexperienced breeders may be linked to a higher proportion of lower-quality individuals in younger age classes. When age and breeding success are controlled for, there is no evidence of an influence of experience on survival or future breeding probability. 4. Using data from individuals whose reproductive life lasted the same number of years, we investigated the influence of experience on reproductive performance within individuals. There is no strong evidence that a process operating within individuals explains the improvement in performance observed at the population level.

Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Cambodian Refugees.

PubMed

Marshall, Grant N; Schell, Terry L; Wong, Eunice C; Berthold, S Megan; Hambarsoomian, Katrin; Elliott, Marc N; Bardenheier, Barbara H; Gregg, Edward W

2016-02-01

To determine rates of diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia in Cambodian refugees, and to assess the proportion whose conditions are satisfactorily managed in comparison to the general population. Self-report and laboratory/physical health assessment data obtained from a household probability sample of U.S.-residing Cambodian refugees (N = 331) in 2010-2011 were compared to a probability sample of the adult U.S. population (N = 6,360) from the 2009-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and hyperlipidemia in Cambodian refugees greatly exceeded rates found in the age- and gender-adjusted U.S. Cambodian refugees with diagnosed hypertension or hyperlipidemia were less likely than their counterparts in the general U.S. population to have blood pressure and total cholesterol within recommended levels. Increased attention should be paid to prevention and management of diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk factors in the Cambodian refugee community. Research is needed to determine whether this pattern extends to other refugee groups.

A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Rohling, Eelco J.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Foster, Gavin L.; Roberts, Andrew P.; Grant, Katharine M.

2013-01-01

During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of ‘normal’ processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000 ppmv. PMID:24336564

Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor (MIF) Deficiency Exacerbates Aging-Induced Cardiac Remodeling and Dysfunction Despite Improved Inflammation: Role of Autophagy Regulation.

PubMed

Xu, Xihui; Pang, Jiaojiao; Chen, Yuguo; Bucala, Richard; Zhang, Yingmei; Ren, Jun

2016-03-04

Aging leads to unfavorable geometric and functional sequelae in the heart. The proinflammatory cytokine macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) plays a role in the maintenance of cardiac homeostasis under stress conditions although its impact in cardiac aging remains elusive. This study was designed to evaluate the role of MIF in aging-induced cardiac anomalies and the underlying mechanism involved. Cardiac geometry, contractile and intracellular Ca(2+) properties were examined in young (3-4 mo) or old (24 mo) wild type and MIF knockout (MIF(-/-)) mice. Our data revealed that MIF knockout exacerbated aging-induced unfavorable structural and functional changes in the heart. The detrimental effect of MIF knockout was associated with accentuated loss in cardiac autophagy with aging. Aging promoted cardiac inflammation, the effect was attenuated by MIF knockout. Intriguingly, aging-induced unfavorable responses were reversed by treatment with the autophagy inducer rapamycin, with improved myocardial ATP availability in aged WT and MIF(-/-) mice. Using an in vitro model of senescence, MIF knockdown exacerbated doxorubicin-induced premature senescence in H9C2 myoblasts, the effect was ablated by MIF replenishment. Our data indicated that MIF knockout exacerbates aging-induced cardiac remodeling and functional anomalies despite improved inflammation, probably through attenuating loss of autophagy and ATP availability in the heart.

Ozone-surface interactions: Investigations of mechanisms, kinetics, mass transport, and implications for indoor air quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrison, Glenn Charles

1999-12-01

In this dissertation, results are presented of laboratory investigations and mathematical modeling efforts designed to better understand the interactions of ozone with surfaces. In the laboratory, carpet and duct materials were exposed to ozone and measured ozone uptake kinetics and the ozone induced emissions of volatile organic compounds. To understand the results of the experiments, mathematical methods were developed to describe dynamic indoor aldehyde concentrations, mass transport of reactive species to smooth surfaces, the equivalent reaction probability of whole carpet due to the surface reactivity of fibers and carpet backing, and ozone aging of surfaces. Carpets, separated carpet fibers, andmore » separated carpet backing all tended to release aldehydes when exposed to ozone. Secondary emissions were mostly n-nonanal and several other smaller aldehydes. The pattern of emissions suggested that vegetable oils may be precursors for these oxidized emissions. Several possible precursors and experiments in which linseed and tung oils were tested for their secondary emission potential were discussed. Dynamic emission rates of 2-nonenal from a residential carpet may indicate that intermediate species in the oxidation of conjugated olefins can significantly delay aldehyde emissions and act as reservoir for these compounds. The ozone induced emission rate of 2-nonenal, a very odorous compound, can result in odorous indoor concentrations for several years. Surface ozone reactivity is a key parameter in determining the flux of ozone to a surface, is parameterized by the reaction probability, which is simply the probability that an ozone molecule will be irreversibly consumed when it strikes a surface. In laboratory studies of two residential and two commercial carpets, the ozone reaction probability for carpet fibers, carpet backing and the equivalent reaction probability for whole carpet were determined. Typically reaction probability values for these materials were 10 -7, 10 -5, and 10 -5 respectively. To understand how internal surface area influences the equivalent reaction probability of whole carpet, a model of ozone diffusion into and reaction with internal carpet components was developed. This was then used to predict apparent reaction probabilities for carpet. He combines this with a modified model of turbulent mass transfer developed by Liu, et al. to predict deposition rates and indoor ozone concentrations. The model predicts that carpet should have an equivalent reaction probability of about 10 -5, matching laboratory measurements of the reaction probability. For both carpet and duct materials, surfaces become progressively quenched (aging), losing the ability to react or otherwise take up ozone. He evaluated the functional form of aging and find that the reaction probability follows a power function with respect to the cumulative uptake of ozone. To understand ozone aging of surfaces, he developed several mathematical descriptions of aging based on two different mechanisms. The observed functional form of aging is mimicked by a model which describes ozone diffusion with internal reaction in a solid. He shows that the fleecy nature of carpet materials in combination with the model of ozone diffusion below a fiber surface and internal reaction may explain the functional form and the magnitude of power function parameters observed due to ozone interactions with carpet. The ozone induced aldehyde emissions, measured from duct materials, were combined with an indoor air quality model to show that concentrations of aldehydes indoors may approach odorous levels. He shows that ducts are unlikely to be a significant sink for ozone due to the low reaction probability in combination with the short residence time of air in ducts.« less

What Are Probability Surveys used by the National Aquatic Resource Surveys?

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.

A model to predict progression in brain-injured patients.

PubMed

Tommasino, N; Forteza, D; Godino, M; Mizraji, R; Alvarez, I

2014-11-01

The study of brain death (BD) epidemiology and the acute brain injury (ABI) progression profile is important to improve public health programs, organ procurement strategies, and intensive care unit (ICU) protocols. The purpose of this study was to analyze the ABI progression profile among patients admitted to ICUs with a Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) ≤8, as well as establishing a prediction model of probability of death and BD. This was a retrospective analysis of prospective data that included all brain-injured patients with GCS ≤8 admitted to a total of four public and private ICUs in Uruguay (N = 1447). The independent predictor factors of death and BD were studied using logistic regression analysis. A hierarchical model consisting of 2 nested logit regression models was then created. With these models, the probabilities of death, BD, and death by cardiorespiratory arrest were analyzed. In the first regression, we observed that as the GCS decreased and age increased, the probability of death rose. Each additional year of age increased the probability of death by 0.014. In the second model, however, BD risk decreased with each year of age. The presence of swelling, mass effect, and/or space-occupying lesion increased BD risk for the same given GCS. In the presence of injuries compatible with intracranial hypertension, age behaved as a protective factor that reduced the probability of BD. Based on the analysis of the local epidemiology, a model to predict the probability of death and BD can be developed. The organ potential donation of a country, region, or hospital can be predicted on the basis of this model, customizing it to each specific situation.

Epidemiology of hip fracture and the development of FRAX in Ukraine.

PubMed

Povoroznyuk, V V; Grygorieva, N V; Kanis, J A; Ev, McCloskey; Johansson, H; Harvey, N C; Korzh, M O; Strafun, S S; Vaida, V M; Klymovytsky, F V; Vlasenko, R O; Forosenko, V S

2017-12-01

A country-specific FRAX model has been developed for the Ukraine to replace the Austrian model hitherto used. Comparison of the Austrian and Ukrainian models indicated that the former markedly overestimated fracture probability whilst correctly stratifying risk. FRAX has been used to estimate osteoporotic fracture risk since 2009. Rather than using a surrogate model, the Austrian version of FRAX was adopted for clinical practice. Since then, data have become available on hip fracture incidence in the Ukraine. The incidence of hip fracture was computed from three regional estimates and used to construct a country-specific FRAX model for the Ukraine. The model characteristics were compared with those of the Austrian FRAX model, previously used in Ukraine by using all combinations of six risk factors and eight values of BMD (total number of combinations =512). The relationship between the probabilities of a major fracture derived from the two versions of FRAX indicated a close correlation between the two estimates (r > 0.95). The Ukrainian version, however, gave markedly lower probabilities than the Austrian model at all ages. For a major osteoporotic fracture, the median probability was lower by 25% at age 50 years and the difference increased with age. At the age of 60, 70 and 80 years, the median value was lower by 30, 53 and 65%, respectively. Similar findings were observed for men and for hip fracture. The Ukrainian FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Ukrainian population and help to guide decisions about treatment. The study also indicates that the use of surrogate FRAX models or models from other countries, whilst correctly stratifying risk, may markedly over or underestimate the absolute fracture probability.

Electronic Health Records to Evaluate and Account for Non-response Bias: A Survey of Patients Using Chronic Opioid Therapy.

PubMed

Shortreed, Susan M; Von Korff, Michael; Thielke, Stephen; LeResche, Linda; Saunders, Kathleen; Rosenberg, Dori; Turner, Judith A

2016-01-01

In observational studies concerning drug use and misuse, persons misusing drugs may be less likely to respond to surveys. However, little is known about differences in drug use and drug misuse risk factors between survey respondents and nonrespondents. Using electronic health record (EHR) data, we compared respondents and non-respondents in a telephone survey of middle-aged and older chronic opioid therapy patients to assess predictors of interview nonresponse. We compared general patient characteristics, specific opioid misuse risk factors, and patterns of opioid use associated with increased risk of opioid misuse. Inverse probability weights were calculated to account for nonresponse bias by EHR-measured covariates. EHR-measured covariate distributions for the full sample (nonrespondents and respondents), the unweighted respondent sample, and the inverse probability weighted respondent sample are reported. We present weighted and unweighted prevalence of self-reported opioid misuse risk factors. Among 2489 potentially eligible patients, 1477 (59.3%) completed interviews. Response rates differed with age (45-54 years, 51.8%; 55-64 years, 58.7%; 65-74 years, 67.9%; and 75 years or older, 59.9%). Tobacco users had lower response rates than did nonusers (53.5% versus 60.9%). Charlson comorbidity score was also related to response rates. Individuals with a Charlson score of 2 had the highest response rate at 65.6%; response rates were lower amoung patients with the lowest (the patients with the fewest health conditions had response rates of 56.7-60.0%) and the highest Charlson scores (patients with the most health conditions had response rates of 52.2-56.0%). These bivariate relationships persisted in adjusted multivariable logistic regression models predicting survey response. Response rates of persons with and without specific opioid misuse risk factors were similar (e.g., 58.7% for persons with substance abuse diagnoses, 59.4% for those without). Opioid use patterns associated with opioid misuse did not predict response rates (e.g., 60.6% versus 59.2% for those receiving versus not receiving opioids from 3 or more physicians outside their primary care clinic). Very few patient characteristics predicted non-response; thus, inverse probability weights accounting for nonresponse had little impact on the distributions of EHR-measured covariates or self-reported measures related to opioid use and misuse. Response rates differed by characteristics that predict nonresponse in general health surveys (age, tobacco use), but did not appear to differ by specific patient or drug use risk factors for prescription opioid misuse among middle- and older-aged chronic opioid therapy patients. When observational studies are conducted in health plan populations, electronic health records may be used to evaluate nonresponse bias and to adjust for variables predicting interview nonresponse, complementing other research uses of EHR data in observational studies.

Measuring Sound-Processor Threshold Levels for Pediatric Cochlear Implant Recipients Using Conditioned Play Audiometry via Telepractice

PubMed Central

Goehring, Jenny L.

2017-01-01

Purpose This study evaluated the use of telepractice for measuring cochlear implant (CI) behavioral threshold (T) levels in children using conditioned play audiometry (CPA). The goals were to determine whether (a) T levels measured via telepractice were not significantly different from those obtained in person, (b) response probability differed between remote and in-person conditions, and (c) the remote visit required more time than the in-person condition. Method An ABBA design (A, in-person; B, remote) was split across 2 visits. Nineteen children aged 2.6–7.1 years participated. T levels were measured using CPA for 3 electrodes per session. A “hit” rate was calculated to determine whether the likelihood of obtaining responses differed between conditions. Test time was compared across conditions. A questionnaire was administered to assess parent/caregiver attitudes about telepractice. Results Results indicated no significant difference in T levels between conditions. Hit rates were not significantly different between in-person and remote conditions (98% vs. 97%, respectively). Test time was similar between conditions. Questionnaire results revealed that 100% of caregivers would use telepractice for CI appointments either some or all of the time. Conclusion Telepractice is a viable option for routine pediatric programming appointments for children using CPA to set behavioral thresholds. PMID:28257529

Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider

PubMed Central

Jónsson, Jón Einar; Gardarsson, Arnthor; Gill, Jennifer A.; Pétursdóttir, Una Krístín; Petersen, Aevar; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar

2013-01-01

Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1) demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900–2007; and 2) impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years) on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2–3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918) and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995). In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers can promote boom years for recruitment. PMID:23805292

Determinants of between-year burrow re-occupation in a colony of the European bee-eater Merops apiaster.

PubMed

Brust, Vera; Bastian, Hans-Valentin; Bastian, Anita; Schmoll, Tim

2015-08-01

Re-occupation of existing nesting burrows in the European bee-eater Merops apiaster has only rarely - and if so mostly anecdotically - been documented in the literature record, although such behavior would substantially save time and energy. In this study, we quantify burrow re-occupation in a German colony over a period of eleven years and identify ecological variables determining reuse probability. Of 179 recorded broods, 54% took place in a reused burrow and the overall probability that one of 75 individually recognized burrows would be reused in a given subsequent year was estimated as 26.4%. This indicates that between-year burrow reuse is a common behavior in the study colony which contrasts with findings from studies in other colonies. Furthermore, burrow re-occupation probability declined highly significantly with increasing age of the breeding wall. Statistical separation of within- and between-burrow effects of the age of the breeding wall revealed that a decline in re-occupation probability with individual burrow age was responsible for this and not a selective disappearance of burrows with high re-occupation probability over time. Limited duty cycles of individual burrows may be caused by accumulating detritus or decreasing stability with increasing burrow age. Alternatively, burrow fidelity may presuppose pair fidelity which may also explain the observed restricted burrow reuse duty cycles. A consequent next step would be to extend our within-colony approach to other colonies and compare the ecological circumstances under which bee-eaters reuse breeding burrows.

An Exploratory Study on the Impact of Domestic Violence on the Families in Trinidad and Tobago, the West Indies.

PubMed

Johnson, Emmanuel Janagan

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of domestic violence on the economic condition of the families. This cross-sectional study utilized a non-probability sampling procedure (purposive sampling) that included 30 women who have sought services from the Coalition Against Domestic Violence Agency. Data were collected using a questionnaire, which was comprised of 21 questions. The questions sought information on socioeconomic conditions and impact on domestic violence on the financial position. The study revealed that more of domestic violence victims were at an early age. Recommendations for future research include identifying the major causes for family disorganization and break down in the families arise out of domestic violence and other associated factors where explored while emphasizing the importance of family-based programs that minimize the impact.

The origin of zircon and the significance of U-Pb ages in high-grade metamorphic rocks: a case study from the Variscan orogenic root (Vosges Mountains, NE France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skrzypek, E.; Štípská, P.; Cocherie, A.

2012-12-01

U-Pb zircon dating is combined with petrology, Zr-in-rutile thermometry and mineral equilibria modelling to discuss zircon petrogenesis and the age of metamorphism in three units of the Variscan Vosges Mountains (NE France). The monotonous gneiss unit shows results at 700-500 Ma, but no Variscan ages. The varied gneiss unit preserves ages between 600 and 460 Ma and a Variscan group at 340-335 Ma. Zircon analyses from the felsic granulite unit define a continuous array of ages between 500 and 340 Ma. In varied gneiss samples, zoned garnet includes kyanite and rutile and is surrounded by matrix sillimanite and cordierite. In a pseudosection, it points to peak conditions of ~16 kbar/850 °C followed by isothermal decompression to 8-10 kbar/820-860 °C. In felsic granulite samples, the assemblage K-feldspar-garnet-kyanite-Zr-rich rutile is replaced by sillimanite and Zr-poor rutile. Modelling these assemblages supports minimum conditions of ~13 kbar/925 °C, and a subsequent P-T decrease to 6.5-8.5 kbar/800-820 °C. The internal structure and chemistry of zircons, and modelling of zircon dissolution/growth along the inferred P-T paths are used to discuss the significance of the U-Pb ages. In the monotonous unit, inherited zircon ages of 700-500 Ma point to sedimentation during the Late Cambrian, while medium-grade metamorphism did not allow the formation of Variscan zircon domains. In both the varied gneiss and felsic granulite units, zircons with a blurred oscillatory-zoned pattern could reflect solid-state recrystallization of older grains during HT metamorphism, whereas zircons with a dark cathodoluminescence pattern are thought to derive from crystallization of an anatectic melt during cooling at middle pressure conditions. The present work proposes that U-Pb zircon ages of ca. 340 Ma probably reflect the end of a widespread HT metamorphic event at middle crustal level.

Cost-effectiveness of In-home Automated External Defibrillators for Individuals at Increased Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death

PubMed Central

Cram, Peter; Vijan, Sandeep; Katz, David; Fendrick, A Mark

2005-01-01

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE In-home automated external defibrillators (AEDs) are increasingly recommended as a means for improving survival of cardiac arrests that occur at home. The current study was conducted to explore the relationship between individuals' risk of cardiac arrest and cost-effectiveness of in-home AED deployment. DESIGN Markov decision model employing a societal perspective. PATIENTS Four hypothetical cohorts of American adults 60 years of age at progressively greater risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD): 1) all adults (annual probability of SCD 0.4%); 2) adults with multiple SCD risk factors (probability 2%); 3) adults with previous myocardial infarction (probability 4%); and 4) adults with ischemic cardiomyopathy unable to receive an implantable defibrillator (probability 6%). INTERVENTION Strategy 1: individuals suffering an in-home cardiac arrest were treated with emergency medical services equipped with AEDs (EMS-D). Strategy 2: individuals suffering an in-home cardiac arrest received initial treatment with an in-home AED, followed by EMS. RESULTS Assuming cardiac arrest survival rates of 15% with EMS-D and 30% with AEDs, the cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained (QALY) of providing in-home AEDs to all adults 60 years of age is $216,000. Costs of providing in-home AEDs to adults with multiple risk factors (2% probability of SCD), previous myocardial infarction (4% probability), and ischemic cardiomyopathy (6% probability) are $132,000, $104,000, and $88,000, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The cost-effectiveness of in-home AEDs is intimately linked to individuals' risk of SCD. However, providing in-home AEDs to all adults over age 60 appears relatively expensive. PMID:15836529

Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Linlin; Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng

Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI.more » The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.« less

Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

DOE PAGES

Fan, Linlin; Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; ...

2017-05-16

Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI.more » The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.« less

Revisiting the J shaped curve, exploring the association between cardiovascular risk factors and concurrent depressive symptoms in patients with cardiometabolic disease: Findings from a large cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Jani, Bhautesh Dinesh; Cavanagh, Jonathan; Barry, Sarah J E; Der, Geoff; Sattar, Naveed; Mair, Frances S

2014-10-28

Depression is common in patients with cardiometabolic diseases but little is known about the relationship, if any, between cardiovascular risk factor values and depressive symptoms in patients with these conditions. The objective of this paper is to study the association between cardiovascular risk factors and concurrent depressive symptoms in patients with three common cardiometabolic conditions: coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and diabetes. We retrospectively reviewed primary care data for N = 35537 with 1 of the above 3 conditions who underwent depression screening using the depressive subscale of hospital anxiety and depression score (HADS-D). We reviewed 4 cardiometabolic risk factors (Systolic Blood Pressure [SBP], Diastolic Blood Pressure [DBP], BMI and total cholesterol) recorded concurrently in all patients and HbA1c in patients with diabetes (n = 18453). We analysed the association between individual risk factor value and a positive HADS-D screening result (>7) using logistic regression. SBP and BMI were noted to have a non-linear "J-shaped" relationship with the probability of having a positive HADS-D and observed nadirs (levels with the lowest probability) of 148 mm Hg and 30.70 kg/m2, respectively. Total cholesterol and DBP found to have a weaker curvilinear association with concurrent depression symptoms and nadirs of 3.60 mmol/l and 74 mmHg. Among patients with Diabetes, HbA1c was also found to have a "J-shaped" relationship with probability of having a positive HADS-D with an observed nadir of 7.06% DCCT. The above relationships remain significant after adjusting for age, sex, socio-economic status and number of co-morbid conditions. In patients with cardiometabolic disease, cardiovascular risk factor values at both extremes were associated with higher positive depression screening after adjusting for confounders. These findings have potentially important implications for clinical practice in relation to both risk stratification for depression and approaches to secondary prevention in individuals with cardiometabolic disease and merit further investigation to determine the nature and direction of the observed association.Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/12/199.

Game-Theoretic strategies for systems of components using product-form utilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S; Ma, Cheng-Yu; Hausken, K.

Many critical infrastructures are composed of multiple systems of components which are correlated so that disruptions to one may propagate to others. We consider such infrastructures with correlations characterized in two ways: (i) an aggregate failure correlation function specifies the conditional failure probability of the infrastructure given the failure of an individual system, and (ii) a pairwise correlation function between two systems specifies the failure probability of one system given the failure of the other. We formulate a game for ensuring the resilience of the infrastructure, wherein the utility functions of the provider and attacker are products of an infrastructuremore » survival probability term and a cost term, both expressed in terms of the numbers of system components attacked and reinforced. The survival probabilities of individual systems satisfy first-order differential conditions that lead to simple Nash Equilibrium conditions. We then derive sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of infrastructure resilience on the cost terms, correlation functions, and individual system survival probabilities. We apply these results to simplified models of distributed cloud computing and energy grid infrastructures.« less

Natal and breeding philopatry in a black brant, Branta bernicla nigricans, metapopulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, Mark S.; Sedinger, James S.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Rockwell, Robert F.

1998-01-01

We estimated natal and breeding philopatry and dispersal probabilities for a metapopulation of Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) based on observations of marked birds at six breeding colonies in Alaska, 1986–1994. Both adult females and males exhibited high (>0.90) probability of philopatry to breeding colonies. Probability of natal philopatry was significantly higher for females than males. Natal dispersal of males was recorded between every pair of colonies, whereas natal dispersal of females was observed between only half of the colony pairs. We suggest that female-biased philopatry was the result of timing of pair formation and characteristics of the mating system of brant, rather than factors related to inbreeding avoidance or optimal discrepancy. Probability of natal philopatry of females increased with age but declined with year of banding. Age-related increase in natal philopatry was positively related to higher breeding probability of older females. Declines in natal philopatry with year of banding corresponded negatively to a period of increasing population density; therefore, local population density may influence the probability of nonbreeding and gene flow among colonies.

Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle

2015-03-31

California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼ 100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm-dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the "exceptional" 2012-2014 drought in California.

Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle

2015-01-01

California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California. PMID:25733875

Cross-National Differences in Disability Among Elders: Transitions in Disability in Mexico and the United States

PubMed Central

Wong, Rebeca; Michaels-Obregon, Alejandra; Palloni, Alberto

2015-01-01

Objectives. Little is known about how exposure to a combination of infectious and chronic conditions throughout the lifecourse could impact disability in old age. This paper compares 2 cohorts of adults who have aged under very different country contexts by contrasting disability transitions among elders in Mexico with elders in the United States. Methods. Data comes from the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) and the U.S. Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Estimated probabilities of 2-year transitions among disability states and mortality are presented for adults aged 50 and older. Results. The levels of disability prevalence and 2 year transitions are consistent with a higher rate of disability for the United States compared to Mexico. In 2-year transitions, the U.S. sample was more likely to transition to a disabled state or increase the number of disabilities than the Mexican counterparts, while Mexicans are more likely to move out of disability or reduce the number of disabilities reported. Discussion. The findings suggest that the current rate of disability in old age is lower for a less developed country compared with a developed society. We discuss implications, possible explanations, and likely future scenarios. PMID:25633135

Estimation of post-test probabilities by residents: Bayesian reasoning versus heuristics?

PubMed

Hall, Stacey; Phang, Sen Han; Schaefer, Jeffrey P; Ghali, William; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2014-08-01

Although the process of diagnosing invariably begins with a heuristic, we encourage our learners to support their diagnoses by analytical cognitive processes, such as Bayesian reasoning, in an attempt to mitigate the effects of heuristics on diagnosing. There are, however, limited data on the use ± impact of Bayesian reasoning on the accuracy of disease probability estimates. In this study our objective was to explore whether Internal Medicine residents use a Bayesian process to estimate disease probabilities by comparing their disease probability estimates to literature-derived Bayesian post-test probabilities. We gave 35 Internal Medicine residents four clinical vignettes in the form of a referral letter and asked them to estimate the post-test probability of the target condition in each case. We then compared these to literature-derived probabilities. For each vignette the estimated probability was significantly different from the literature-derived probability. For the two cases with low literature-derived probability our participants significantly overestimated the probability of these target conditions being the correct diagnosis, whereas for the two cases with high literature-derived probability the estimated probability was significantly lower than the calculated value. Our results suggest that residents generate inaccurate post-test probability estimates. Possible explanations for this include ineffective application of Bayesian reasoning, attribute substitution whereby a complex cognitive task is replaced by an easier one (e.g., a heuristic), or systematic rater bias, such as central tendency bias. Further studies are needed to identify the reasons for inaccuracy of disease probability estimates and to explore ways of improving accuracy.

The Probable Ages of Asteroid Families

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, A. W.

1993-01-01

There has been considerable debate recently over the ages of the Hirayama families, and in particular if some of the families are very oung(u) It is a straightforward task to estimate the characteristic time of a collision between a body of a given diameter, d_o, by another body of diameter greater of equal to d_1. What is less straightforward is to estimate the critical diameter ratio, d_1/d_o, above which catastrophic disruption occurs, from which one could infer probable ages of the Hirayama families, by knowing the diameter of the parent body, d_o. One can gain some insight into the probable value of d_1/d_o, and of the likely ages of existing families, from the plot below. I have computed the characteristic time between collisions in the asteroid belt of a size ratio greater of equal to d_1/d_o, for 4 sizes of target asteroids, d_o. The solid curves to the lower right are the characteristic times for a single object...

Supercentenarians: slower ageing individuals or senile elderly?

PubMed

Robine, J; Vaupel, J W

2001-04-01

Although the increase in the number of centenarians is well documented today, at least in some countries, this is still not the case for people having reached the age of 110 years or more: the supercentenarians. The supercentenarians emerged in the mid-1960s. Their numbers have regularly increased since the mid-1970s. The current prevalence of known supercentenarians in countries involved in the database is approximately five to six times more than in the mid-1970s. In roughly 20 years the maximum age observed has increased by about 10 years from 112 to 122 years. The annual probability of death at age 110 is as low as 0.52 with the validated data (n=106) or with the exhaustive and validated data (n=73). The probabilities of death stagnate between 110 and 115 years, and all the computed probabilities fall below the ceiling of 0.6. Our results are compatible with the last extrapolations of mortality trajectories using a logistic or a quadratic model.

Emotion recognition specialization and context-dependent risk of anxiety and depression in adolescents

PubMed Central

Oldehinkel, Albertine J; Hartman, Catharina A; Van Oort, Floor V A; Nederhof, Esther

2015-01-01

Background Some adolescents function poorly in apparently benign environments, while others thrive despite hassles and difficulties. The aim of this study was to examine if adolescents with specialized skills in the recognition of either positive or negative emotions have a context-dependent risk of developing an anxiety or depressive disorder during adolescence, depending on exposure to positive or harsh parenting. Methods Data came from a large prospective Dutch population study (N = 1539). At age 11, perceived parental rejection and emotional warmth were measured by questionnaire, and emotion recognition skills by means of a reaction-time task. Lifetime diagnoses of anxiety and depressive disorders were assessed at about age 19, using a standardized diagnostic interview. Results Adolescents who were specialized in the recognition of positive emotions had a relatively high probability to develop an anxiety disorder when exposed to parental rejection (Bspecialization*rejection = 0.23, P < 0.01) and a relatively low probability in response to parental emotional warmth (Bspecialization*warmth = −0.24, P = 0.01), while the opposite pattern was found for specialists in negative emotions. The effect of parental emotional warmth on depression onset was likewise modified by emotion recognition specialization (B = −0.13, P = 0.03), but the effect of parental rejection was not (B = 0.02, P = 0.72). In general, the relative advantage of specialists in negative emotions was restricted to fairly uncommon negative conditions. Conclusions Our results suggest that there is no unequivocal relation between parenting behaviors and the probability to develop an anxiety or depressive disorder in adolescence, and that emotion recognition specialization may be a promising way to distinguish between various types of context-dependent reaction patterns. PMID:25642389

Emotion recognition specialization and context-dependent risk of anxiety and depression in adolescents.

PubMed

Oldehinkel, Albertine J; Hartman, Catharina A; Van Oort, Floor V A; Nederhof, Esther

2015-02-01

Some adolescents function poorly in apparently benign environments, while others thrive despite hassles and difficulties. The aim of this study was to examine if adolescents with specialized skills in the recognition of either positive or negative emotions have a context-dependent risk of developing an anxiety or depressive disorder during adolescence, depending on exposure to positive or harsh parenting. Data came from a large prospective Dutch population study (N = 1539). At age 11, perceived parental rejection and emotional warmth were measured by questionnaire, and emotion recognition skills by means of a reaction-time task. Lifetime diagnoses of anxiety and depressive disorders were assessed at about age 19, using a standardized diagnostic interview. Adolescents who were specialized in the recognition of positive emotions had a relatively high probability to develop an anxiety disorder when exposed to parental rejection (Bspecialization*rejection = 0.23, P < 0.01) and a relatively low probability in response to parental emotional warmth (Bspecialization*warmth = -0.24, P = 0.01), while the opposite pattern was found for specialists in negative emotions. The effect of parental emotional warmth on depression onset was likewise modified by emotion recognition specialization (B = -0.13, P = 0.03), but the effect of parental rejection was not (B = 0.02, P = 0.72). In general, the relative advantage of specialists in negative emotions was restricted to fairly uncommon negative conditions. Our results suggest that there is no unequivocal relation between parenting behaviors and the probability to develop an anxiety or depressive disorder in adolescence, and that emotion recognition specialization may be a promising way to distinguish between various types of context-dependent reaction patterns.

Combination of a Stresor-Response Model with a Conditional Probability Anaylsis Approach to Develop Candidate Criteria from Empirical Data

EPA Science Inventory

We show that a conditional probability analysis that utilizes a stressor-response model based on a logistic regression provides a useful approach for developing candidate water quality criterai from empirical data. The critical step in this approach is transforming the response ...

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ANALYSIS APPROACH FOR IDENTIFYING BIOLOGICAL THRESHOLD OF IMPACT FOR SEDIMENTATION: APPICATION TO FRESHWATER STREAMS IN OREGON COAST RANGE ECOREGION

EPA Science Inventory

A conditional probability analysis (CPA) approach has been developed for identifying biological thresholds of impact for use in the development of geographic-specific water quality criteria for protection of aquatic life. This approach expresses the threshold as the likelihood ...

Deposition modes in the paleo-lake Colônia (São Paulo, SE / Brazil): detrital input and bio-geochemical processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roeser, Patricia; Ledru, Marie-Pierre; Thouveny, Nicolas; Tachikawa, Kazuyo; Rostek, Frauke; Garcia, Marta; Struck, Ulrich; Sawakuchi, André; Favier, Charly; Bard, Edouard

2017-04-01

Colônia, a geomorphological circular structure in southeast Brazil, probably originated from an meteor impact with still unknown age. The structure, situated 40 km south of the center of the mega city São Paulo, has ca. 3.6 km in diameter and a surrounding rim elevated by ca. 120 meters. At present, the inner part of the structure contains a swampy alluvial plain. Sediment columns recovered in September 2014 have shown that below a circa 8 meter thick peat deposit, sediments are lacustrine and characterized by light-gray bands (cm scale). According to a preliminary age-depth model, based on radiocarbon ages, luminescence ages and paleomagnetism, the transition between lake to peat deposition seems to relate to climate boundary conditions from glacial towards interglacial conditions. In the lacustrine fine-grained sediments, the banded gray layers have distinct grain size, as macroscopically observed from mica grains/plates. Correlated to high-resolution geochemical data, lighter colored bands hold increased amounts of K and Si [XRF counts], originating from detrital input from the basin, e.g. flood events during tropical storms. Potassium is mainly contained in the crystalline structure of muscovite, whereas silica is additionally contained in kaolinite and quartz, thereby completing the minerals that make out the major mineral assemblage found in the sediments. Pyrite is found as an accessory mineral with average concentrations between 1 and 2%, peaking at 5% up to 10% in covariance to Fe/Ti [XRF count ratio]. Overall a covariance pattern, with or without phase lag, between pyrite, ∂13C (of TOC) and the concentrations of the biomarker hopane is observed in the lacustrine sediments. These relationships likely originate from stratification conditions in the paleo-lake, such that a more stable stratification eventually led to anoxic lake bottom conditions, favoring authigenic/microbial pyrite precipitation, better preservation of organic matter and affecting gas exchange between the water and the atmosphere.

Israeli adolescents with ongoing exposure to terrorism: suicidal ideation, posttraumatic stress disorder, and functional impairment.

PubMed

Chemtob, Claude M; Pat-Horenczyk, Ruth; Madan, Anita; Pitman, Seth R; Wang, Yanping; Doppelt, Osnat; Burns, Kelly Dugan; Abramovitz, Robert; Brom, Daniel

2011-12-01

In this study, we examined the relationships among terrorism exposure, functional impairment, suicidal ideation, and probable partial or full posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) from exposure to terrorism in adolescents continuously exposed to this threat in Israel. A convenience sample of 2,094 students, aged 12 to 18, was drawn from 10 Israeli secondary schools. In terms of demographic factors, older age was associated with increased risk for suicidal ideation, OR = 1.33, 95% CI [1.09, 1.62], p < .01, but was protective against probable partial or full PTSD, OR = 0.72, 95% CI [0.54, 0.95], p < .05; female gender was associated with greater likelihood of probable partial or full PTSD, OR = 1.57, 95% CI [1.02, 2.40], p < .05. Exposure to trauma due to terrorism was associated with increased risk for each of the measured outcomes including probable partial or full PTSD, functional impairment, and suicidal ideation. When age, gender, level of exposure to terrorism, probable partial or full PTSD, and functional impairment were examined together, only terrorism exposure and functional impairment were associated with suicidal ideation. This study underscores the importance and feasibility of examining exposure to terrorism and functional impairment as risk factors for suicidal ideation. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

Orientation and position of head posture, scapula and thoracic spine in mouth-breathing children.

PubMed

Neiva, Patrícia Dayrell; Kirkwood, Renata Noce; Godinho, Ricardo

2009-02-01

Mouth-breathing is a common clinical condition among school-age children and some studies have correlated this condition with quality of life and postural alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the orientation and position of the scapula, thoracic spine and head posture among mouth-breathing (MB) children and nasal-breathing (NB) children. Twenty-one male MB children and 21 male NB children between 8 and 12 years of age participated in the study. Data were obtained through a stereophotogrammetry system that uses passive markers over anatomical landmarks to capture the position of the segments. Internal rotation, upward rotation, anterior tilt, scapular elevation and abduction were measured bilaterally as well as thoracic kyphosis, forward head position and shoulder protrusion. The MB children showed increased scapular superior position in relation to the NB group. No statistically significant differences were found between groups regarding the angular and linear measurements of the scapula. To verify reliability, three measurements were taken for each variable in the study. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) showed results above 0.8 for all the variables except for the internal rotation angle (I-Rot), below 0.5, probably due to uncertainty in the palpation of the inferior angle of the scapula. Ninety-five percent of the NB children and 58% among the MB children had been breastfed, this difference was statistically significant. There were statistically significant differences between groups regarding the domains of the Autoquestionnaire Qualité de Vie Enfant Imagé (AUQEI) scale and body mass index, which was higher among the NB children. MB children increased scapular superior position in comparison to NB children due probably to the position of forward head, leading to an alteration in the positioning of the mandible. The absence of significantly difference in posture pattern between groups in the present study could attributed to height-weight development in this age, as the posture of children changes in order to adapt to new body proportions, regardless of health status. The results observed in this study demonstrate the importance of using reliable measurements in the postural assessment of MB and NB children helping physical therapists to focus their strategies during rehabilitation in more specific conditions.

Factors affecting summer distributions of Bering Sea forage fish species: Assessing competing hypotheses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker-Stetter, Sandra; Urmy, Samuel; Horne, John; Eisner, Lisa; Farley, Edward

2016-12-01

Hypotheses on the factors affecting forage fish species distributions are often proposed but rarely evaluated using a comprehensive suite of indices. Using 24 predictor indices, we compared competing hypotheses and calculated average models for the distributions of capelin, age-0 Pacific cod, and age-0 pollock in the eastern Bering Sea from 2006 to 2010. Distribution was described using a two stage modeling approach: probability of occurrence ("presence") and density when fish were present. Both local (varying by location and year) and annual (uniform in space but varying by year) indices were evaluated, the latter accounting for the possibility that distributions were random but that overall presence or densities changed with annual conditions. One regional index, distance to the location of preflexion larvae earlier in the year, was evaluated for age-0 pollock. Capelin distributions were best predicted by local indices such as bottom depth, temperature, and salinity. Annual climate (May sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice extent anomaly) and wind (June wind speed cubed) indices were often important for age-0 Pacific cod in addition to local indices (temperature and depth). Surface, midwater, and water column age-0 pollock distributions were best described by a combination of local (depth, temperature, salinity, zooplankton) and annual (May SST, sea ice anomaly, June wind speed cubed) indices. Our results corroborated some of those in previous distribution studies, but suggested that presence and density may also be influenced by other factors. Even though there were common environmental factors that influenced all species' distributions, it is not possible to generalize conditions for forage fish as a group.

Outcomes of Medicare-age eligible NHL patients receiving RIC allogeneic transplantation: a CIBMTR analysis.

PubMed

Shah, Nirav N; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Litovich, Carlos; Fenske, Timothy S; Ahmed, Sairah; Battiwalla, Minoo; Bejanyan, Nelli; Dahi, Parastoo B; Bolaños-Meade, Javier; Chen, Andy I; Ciurea, Stefan O; Bachanova, Veronika; DeFilipp, Zachariah; Epperla, Narendranath; Farhadfar, Nosha; Herrera, Alex F; Haverkos, Bradley M; Holmberg, Leona; Hossain, Nasheed M; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed A; Kenkre, Vaishalee P; Lazarus, Hillard M; Murthy, Hemant S; Nishihori, Taiga; Rezvani, Andrew R; D'Souza, Anita; Savani, Bipin N; Ulrickson, Matthew L; Waller, Edmund K; Sureda, Anna; Smith, Sonali M; Hamadani, Mehdi

2018-04-24

The application of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) in non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) patients ≥65 years in the United States is limited by lack of Medicare coverage for this indication. Using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) database, we report allo-HCT outcomes of NHL patients aged ≥65 years (older cohort; n = 446) compared with a cohort of younger NHL patients aged 55-64 years (n = 1183). We identified 1629 NHL patients undergoing a first reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) or nonmyeloablative conditioning allo-HCT from 2008 to 2015 in the United States. Cord blood or haploidentical transplants were excluded. The median age was 68 years (range 65-77) for the older cohort vs 60 years (range 55-64) in the younger cohort. The 4-year adjusted probabilities of nonrelapse mortality (NRM), relapse/progression (R/P), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) of the younger and older groups were 24% vs 30% ( P = .03), 41% vs 42% ( P = .82), 37% vs 31% ( P = .03), and 51% vs 46% ( P = .07), respectively. Using multivariate analysis, compared with the younger group, the older cohort was associated with increased NRM, but there was no difference between the 2 cohorts in terms of R/P, PFS, or OS. The most common cause of death was disease relapse in both groups. In NHL patients eligible for allo-HCT, there was no difference in OS between the 2 cohorts. Age alone should not determine allo-HCT eligibility in NHL, and Medicare should expand allo-HCT coverage to older adults.

Mixing times towards demographic equilibrium in insect populations with temperature variable age structures.

PubMed

Damos, Petros

2015-08-01

In this study, we use entropy related mixing rate modules to measure the effects of temperature on insect population stability and demographic breakdown. The uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn, and how it is moved after a finite act of time steps, is modeled using a stochastic transformation of the Leslie matrix. Age classes are represented as a cycle graph and its transitions towards the stable age distribution are brought forth as an exact Markov chain. The dynamics of divergence, from a non equilibrium state towards equilibrium, are evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. Moreover, Kullback-Leibler distance is applied as information-theoretic measure to estimate exact mixing times of age transitions probabilities towards equilibrium. Using empirically data, we show that on the initial conditions and simulated projection's trough time, that population entropy can effectively be applied to detect demographic variability towards equilibrium under different temperature conditions. Changes in entropy are correlated with the fluctuations of the insect population decay rates (i.e. demographic stability towards equilibrium). Moreover, shorter mixing times are directly linked to lower entropy rates and vice versa. This may be linked to the properties of the insect model system, which in contrast to warm blooded animals has the ability to greatly change its metabolic and demographic rates. Moreover, population entropy and the related distance measures that are applied, provide a means to measure these rates. The current results and model projections provide clear biological evidence why dynamic population entropy may be useful to measure population stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Outcomes of Medicare-age eligible NHL patients receiving RIC allogeneic transplantation: a CIBMTR analysis

PubMed Central

Shah, Nirav N.; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Litovich, Carlos; Fenske, Timothy S.; Ahmed, Sairah; Battiwalla, Minoo; Bejanyan, Nelli; Dahi, Parastoo B.; Bolaños-Meade, Javier; Chen, Andy I.; Ciurea, Stefan O.; Bachanova, Veronika; DeFilipp, Zachariah; Epperla, Narendranath; Farhadfar, Nosha; Herrera, Alex F.; Haverkos, Bradley M.; Holmberg, Leona; Hossain, Nasheed M.; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed A.; Kenkre, Vaishalee P.; Lazarus, Hillard M.; Murthy, Hemant S.; Nishihori, Taiga; Rezvani, Andrew R.; D’Souza, Anita; Savani, Bipin N.; Ulrickson, Matthew L.; Waller, Edmund K.; Sureda, Anna; Smith, Sonali M.

2018-01-01

The application of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) in non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) patients ≥65 years in the United States is limited by lack of Medicare coverage for this indication. Using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) database, we report allo-HCT outcomes of NHL patients aged ≥65 years (older cohort; n = 446) compared with a cohort of younger NHL patients aged 55-64 years (n = 1183). We identified 1629 NHL patients undergoing a first reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) or nonmyeloablative conditioning allo-HCT from 2008 to 2015 in the United States. Cord blood or haploidentical transplants were excluded. The median age was 68 years (range 65-77) for the older cohort vs 60 years (range 55-64) in the younger cohort. The 4-year adjusted probabilities of nonrelapse mortality (NRM), relapse/progression (R/P), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) of the younger and older groups were 24% vs 30% (P = .03), 41% vs 42% (P = .82), 37% vs 31% (P = .03), and 51% vs 46% (P = .07), respectively. Using multivariate analysis, compared with the younger group, the older cohort was associated with increased NRM, but there was no difference between the 2 cohorts in terms of R/P, PFS, or OS. The most common cause of death was disease relapse in both groups. In NHL patients eligible for allo-HCT, there was no difference in OS between the 2 cohorts. Age alone should not determine allo-HCT eligibility in NHL, and Medicare should expand allo-HCT coverage to older adults. PMID:29685953

[Hepatitis B case grouping serological study among six chinese families in Almeria, Spain].

PubMed

Barroso García, Pilar; Lucerna Méndez, M Angeles; Adrián Monforte, Estrella; Parrón Carreño, Tesifón

2004-01-01

Following the detection of two cases of members of 6 Chinese families having tested positive for the hepatitis B virus, a study of those living in these families was begun for the purpose of knowing the spread of the infection within the family environment of the cases detected. Descriptive study. Population under study: 24 members of six Chinese families. Age, sex, serological diagnosis, risk factors, healthcare-related attitude. Clinical records, serological data, epidemiological survey and immunization cards. A family focus was employed and the genogram used. Distribution Binomial spread for calculating probability of occurrence of the process to be studied. A total of 14 males (58.3%) and 10 females (41.7%) ranking from 1 to 54 years of age were studied. The age group having the largest number of subjects studied was the age 21-30 group (37.5%). Twelve chronic hepatitis B infections were recorded (50%). No relationship was found to exist with the risk factors studied in the epidemiological survey conducted. The probability of this number of chronic hepatitis cases occurring was 0.066 x 10(-6). It was concluded that the prevalence of infection found was probable due to intra-family transmission. Given the low probability of occurrence of a process of this type, the case grouping found is considered to be high.

The probability of object-scene co-occurrence influences object identification processes.

PubMed

Sauvé, Geneviève; Harmand, Mariane; Vanni, Léa; Brodeur, Mathieu B

2017-07-01

Contextual information allows the human brain to make predictions about the identity of objects that might be seen and irregularities between an object and its background slow down perception and identification processes. Bar and colleagues modeled the mechanisms underlying this beneficial effect suggesting that the brain stocks information about the statistical regularities of object and scene co-occurrence. Their model suggests that these recurring regularities could be conceptualized along a continuum in which the probability of seeing an object within a given scene can be high (probable condition), moderate (improbable condition) or null (impossible condition). In the present experiment, we propose to disentangle the electrophysiological correlates of these context effects by directly comparing object-scene pairs found along this continuum. We recorded the event-related potentials of 30 healthy participants (18-34 years old) and analyzed their brain activity in three time windows associated with context effects. We observed anterior negativities between 250 and 500 ms after object onset for the improbable and impossible conditions (improbable more negative than impossible) compared to the probable condition as well as a parieto-occipital positivity (improbable more positive than impossible). The brain may use different processing pathways to identify objects depending on whether the probability of co-occurrence with the scene is moderate (rely more on top-down effects) or null (rely more on bottom-up influences). The posterior positivity could index error monitoring aimed to ensure that no false information is integrated into mental representations of the world.

The prevalence of self-reported chronic conditions among Arab, Chaldean, and African Americans in southeast Michigan.

PubMed

Jamil, Hikmet; Dallo, Florence; Fakhouri, Monty; Templin, Thomas; Khoury, Radwan; Fakhouri, Haifa

2009-01-01

While there is a plethora of research on the prevalence of individual chronic conditions, studies that examine the clustering of these conditions are lacking, especially among immigrant, minority groups. Cross-sectional, convenience sample. A self-administered survey was distributed at churches, mosques, and small businesses. Arabs (n = 1383), Chaldeans (n = 868), Blacks (n = 809) and Whites (n = 220) in southeast Michigan. We estimated the prevalence of hypertension, high cholesterol, heart disease, diabetes, asthma, and depression. Using a logistic regression model, we estimated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between ethnicity and reporting one or more chronic conditions before and after adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic status, health care, chronic conditions, and health behavior variables. The overall age and sex-adjusted prevalence of having one or more chronic conditions was 44%. Estimates were lower for Chaldeans (32%) compared to Arabs (44%), Whites and Blacks (50% for each group). In the fully adjusted model, Chaldeans were less likely (OR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.43-0.89) to report having one more chronic conditions compared to Whites. Future studies should employ probability samples, and should collect more detailed sociodemographic and acculturation data, which influence the relationship between race/ethnicity and the prevalence of chronic conditions.

Current landscape of direct-to-consumer genetic testing and its role in ophthalmology: a review.

PubMed

Sanfilippo, Paul G; Kearns, Lisa S; Wright, Philip; Mackey, David A; Hewitt, Alex W

2015-08-01

The sequencing of the human genome has seen the emergence of the direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic-testing market, which allows individuals to obtain information about their genetic profile and its many health and lifestyle implications. Genetics play an important role in the development of many eye diseases, however, little information is available describing the influence of the DTC industry in ophthalmology. In this review, we examined DTC companies providing genetic test products for eye disease. Of all eye conditions, the majority of DTC companies provided susceptibility testing or risk assessment for age-related macular degeneration (AMD). For the 15 companies noted to offer products, we found considerable variation in the cost, scope and clarity of informational content of DTC genetic testing for ophthalmic conditions. The clinical utility of these tests remains in question, and the American Academy of Ophthalmology recommendations against routine testing for many conditions probably still apply. © 2015 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Speleothem records decadal to multidecadal hydroclimate variations in southwestern Morocco during the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ait Brahim, Yassine; Cheng, Hai; Sifeddine, Abdelfettah; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Cruz, Francisco W.; Khodri, Myriam; Sha, Lijuan; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Beraaouz, El Hassane; Apaéstegui, James; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine

2017-10-01

This study presents the first well-dated high resolution stable isotope (δ18 O and δ13 C) and trace element (Mg and Sr) speleothem records from southwestern Morocco covering the last 1000 yrs. Our records reveal substantial decadal to multidecadal swings between dry and humid periods, consistent with regional paleorecords with prevailing dry conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), wetter conditions during the second part of the Little Ice Age (LIA), and a trend towards dry conditions during the current warm period. These coherent regional climate signals suggest common climate controls. Statistical analyses indicate that the climate of southwestern Morocco remained under the combined influence of both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) over the last millennium. Interestingly, the generally warmer MCA and colder LIA at longer multidecadal timescales probably influenced the regional climate in North Africa through the influence on Sahara Low which weakened and strengthened the mean moisture inflow from the Atlantic Ocean during the MCA and LIA respectively.

49 CFR 173.50 - Class 1-Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... insensitive that there is very little probability of initiation or of transition from burning to detonation under normal conditions of transport. 1 The probability of transition from burning to detonation is... contain only extremely insensitive detonating substances and which demonstrate a negligible probability of...

Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

2007-01-01

Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

Sexual and relationship characteristics among an internet-based sample of U.S. men with and without erectile dysfunction.

PubMed

Cameron, Ann; Rosen, Raymond C; Swindle, Ralph W

2005-01-01

Sexual and relationship characteristics of men in the general population, particularly those with erectile dysfunction (ED), are not well established. This Internet-based survey (N = 700) examined demographic, sexual, and relationship characteristics of two groups of men aged 40-70: those with no ED (n = 589) and those with probable ED (n = 111). Compared to men without ED, men in the ED sample were significantly older, had more medical conditions, and had significantly worse sexual, psychological, and relationship function. Sexual function and relationship and psychological characteristics were significant predictors of overall sexual satisfaction and relationship satisfaction.

[Individual responses of arterial pressure to geomagnetic activity in practically healthy subjects].

PubMed

Zenchenko, T A; Dimitrova, S; Stoilova, I; Breus, T K

2009-01-01

Dynamic analysis of arterial blood pressure in relation to the Earth's magnetic field perturbations was performed in 77 practically healthy volunteers (staff of Bulgarian Academy of Sciences). Almost half of them proved magneto-sensitive, i.e. experienced AP elevation with increased geomagnetic activity. The probability of development of magnetic sensitivity was independent of age and gender but increased in volunteers having even mild cardiovascular pathology. These subjects complained of worsened health condition upon a rise in geomagnetic activity. However, some volunteers reported deteriorated well-being without AD elevation. It means that AD measurement may be insufficient for reliable monitoring magnetic sensitivity.

[Breastfeeding prevalence during the first year of life in Aragon. CALINA study].

PubMed

Cuadrón Andrés, L; Samper Villagrasa, M P; Álvarez Sauras, M L; Lasarte Velillas, J J; Rodríguez Martínez, G

2013-11-01

To study the current prevalence of breastfeeding (BF) in Aragon (Spain) during the first 12 months of life, and analyse its demographic, perinatal and social influential factors. Obstetric, perinatal and feeding aspects were evaluated in a longitudinal and observational study, in a representative cohort of infant population from Aragon born between March 2009 to March 2010, controlled until 12 months of age (N=1.602). Exclusive or predominant BF was more frequent than the rest of feeding modalities during the first 4 months of life. Maintenance prevalence of any BF modality was 82.5% at 1(st) month of age, 71.8% at 3(rd), 54.3% at 6(th), and 27.8% at 12 months of age. Maternal variables that were significantly associated with BF maintenance both at 1 and 6 months of age were: delivery modality (higher probability in case of vaginal delivery), academic level (higher probability if university studies), origin (higher probability in mothers from Africa), adiposity (higher probability of normal weight or overweight mothers compared with obese ones), and not to smoke during gestation. BF prevalence in Aragon (Spain) during the first 12 months of age is high and has increased compared with previous data. BF continues in more than half of infants at six months and in a quarter of infants at 12 months of age. Maternal factors that significantly influence BF initiation and maintenance are, delivery modality, academic level, origin (immigration), adiposity and smoking habit. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Age-specific mortality trends in France and Italy since 1900: period and cohort effects.

PubMed

Caselli, G; Vallin, J; Vaupel, J W; Yashin, A

1987-11-01

The age/sex-specific mortality trends of France and Italy were studied over the 1899-1979 period in as much detail as possible in an effort to distinguish between cohort effects and those related to period changes. Complete series of mortality data by individual years of age and calendar years were available from 1869 to 1979 for Italy and from 1899 to 1982 for France. For both countries, these data include the military and civil deaths not registered in vital statistics during the war periods. They cover each national territory as defined by its present boundaries. The graphical representation method of mortality surfaces, elaborated by Vaupel, Gambill, and Yashin (1985), was adopted. The age/sex-specific mortality patterns of France and Italy have not followed the same trends, and the differences observed today are not those of 100 years ago. The mean death probabilities for the 1975-79 period were used to illustrate the age-specific patterns of mortality. Although infant mortality was higher in Italy than in France, the death probabilities at ages 1-15 for both sexes were roughly the same for both countries. At ages 15-23, they were much higher in France than in Italy, and they remained considerably higher in France up to age 55. From then on, the sexes differ: for males, the 2 countries showed similar patterns, whereas for females the probabilities were noticeably higher for France. The situation was very different for both countries at the beginning of the century. For both sexes, higher mortality was observed in Italy not only during infancy but throughout childhood and the adolescent years up to age 15. The 2 countries showed similar patterns from 15-25. Above age 25, the 2 countries had similar patterns for females, whereas male mortality was higher in France right up to the old age groups. Such differences in the age-specific mortality trends depend in part on a different development of health and social conditions but also may be due to factors concerning the history of particular groups of generations. The general health progress made in both countries has played an important role but, on the whole, a more favorable role in Italy. Italy's infant and child mortality have drawn nearer the French level, while it has increased its advantage regarding adult mortality. France has strengthened its position only at older ages. There have been many perturbations since 1900, the most important of which has been the 2 world wars. They affected the 2 countries differently both in terms of their immediate effects on both the civil and military populations and in the longterm effects on the cohorts that had suffered most. These cohort effects, largely related to World War I, seem to have disappeared at this time, most likely in part because of selection relevelling the chances of survival of the various cohorts and in part because of general health progress masking the slight differences that may remain.

Recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis.

PubMed

Blostein, Freida; Levin-Sparenberg, Elizabeth; Wagner, Julian; Foxman, Betsy

2017-09-01

Recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis (RVVC), multiple episodes of vulvovaginal candidiasis (VVC; vaginal yeast infection) within a 12-month period, adversely affects quality of life, mental health, and sexual activity. Diagnosis is not straightforward, as VVC is defined by the combination of often nonspecific vaginal symptoms and the presence of yeast-which is a common vaginal commensal. Estimating the incidence and prevalence is challenging: most VVC is diagnosed and treated empirically, the availability for purchase of effective therapies over the counter enables self-diagnosis and treatment, and the duration of the relatively benign VVC symptoms is short, introducing errors into any estimates relying on medical records or patient recall. We evaluate current estimates of VVC and RVVC and provide new prevalence estimates using data from a 2011 seven-country (n = 7345) internet panel survey on VVC conducted by Ipsos Health (https://www.ipsos.com/en). We also evaluate information on VVC-associated visits using the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. The estimated probability of VVC by age 50 varied widely by country (from 23% to 49%, mean 39%), as did the estimated probability of RVVC after VVC (from 14% to 28%, mean 23%). However estimated, the probability of RVVC was high suggesting RVVC is a common condition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Wavefront-Guided Versus Wavefront-Optimized Photorefractive Keratectomy: Visual and Military Task Performance.

PubMed

Ryan, Denise S; Sia, Rose K; Stutzman, Richard D; Pasternak, Joseph F; Howard, Robin S; Howell, Christopher L; Maurer, Tana; Torres, Mark F; Bower, Kraig S

2017-01-01

To compare visual performance, marksmanship performance, and threshold target identification following wavefront-guided (WFG) versus wavefront-optimized (WFO) photorefractive keratectomy (PRK). In this prospective, randomized clinical trial, active duty U.S. military Soldiers, age 21 or over, electing to undergo PRK were randomized to undergo WFG (n = 27) or WFO (n = 27) PRK for myopia or myopic astigmatism. Binocular visual performance was assessed preoperatively and 1, 3, and 6 months postoperatively: Super Vision Test high contrast, Super Vision Test contrast sensitivity (CS), and 25% contrast acuity with night vision goggle filter. CS function was generated testing at five spatial frequencies. Marksmanship performance in low light conditions was evaluated in a firing tunnel. Target detection and identification performance was tested for probability of identification of varying target sets and probability of detection of humans in cluttered environments. Visual performance, CS function, marksmanship, and threshold target identification demonstrated no statistically significant differences over time between the two treatments. Exploratory regression analysis of firing range tasks at 6 months showed no significant differences or correlations between procedures. Regression analysis of vehicle and handheld probability of identification showed a significant association with pretreatment performance. Both WFG and WFO PRK results translate to excellent and comparable visual and military performance. Reprint & Copyright © 2017 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Role of the site of synaptic competition and the balance of learning forces for Hebbian encoding of probabilistic Markov sequences

PubMed Central

Bouchard, Kristofer E.; Ganguli, Surya; Brainard, Michael S.

2015-01-01

The majority of distinct sensory and motor events occur as temporally ordered sequences with rich probabilistic structure. Sequences can be characterized by the probability of transitioning from the current state to upcoming states (forward probability), as well as the probability of having transitioned to the current state from previous states (backward probability). Despite the prevalence of probabilistic sequencing of both sensory and motor events, the Hebbian mechanisms that mold synapses to reflect the statistics of experienced probabilistic sequences are not well understood. Here, we show through analytic calculations and numerical simulations that Hebbian plasticity (correlation, covariance, and STDP) with pre-synaptic competition can develop synaptic weights equal to the conditional forward transition probabilities present in the input sequence. In contrast, post-synaptic competition can develop synaptic weights proportional to the conditional backward probabilities of the same input sequence. We demonstrate that to stably reflect the conditional probability of a neuron's inputs and outputs, local Hebbian plasticity requires balance between competitive learning forces that promote synaptic differentiation and homogenizing learning forces that promote synaptic stabilization. The balance between these forces dictates a prior over the distribution of learned synaptic weights, strongly influencing both the rate at which structure emerges and the entropy of the final distribution of synaptic weights. Together, these results demonstrate a simple correspondence between the biophysical organization of neurons, the site of synaptic competition, and the temporal flow of information encoded in synaptic weights by Hebbian plasticity while highlighting the utility of balancing learning forces to accurately encode probability distributions, and prior expectations over such probability distributions. PMID:26257637

Modelling detection probabilities to evaluate management and control tools for an invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christy, M.T.; Yackel Adams, A.A.; Rodda, G.H.; Savidge, J.A.; Tyrrell, C.L.

2010-01-01

For most ecologists, detection probability (p) is a nuisance variable that must be modelled to estimate the state variable of interest (i.e. survival, abundance, or occupancy). However, in the realm of invasive species control, the rate of detection and removal is the rate-limiting step for management of this pervasive environmental problem. For strategic planning of an eradication (removal of every individual), one must identify the least likely individual to be removed, and determine the probability of removing it. To evaluate visual searching as a control tool for populations of the invasive brown treesnake Boiga irregularis, we designed a mark-recapture study to evaluate detection probability as a function of time, gender, size, body condition, recent detection history, residency status, searcher team and environmental covariates. We evaluated these factors using 654 captures resulting from visual detections of 117 snakes residing in a 5-ha semi-forested enclosure on Guam, fenced to prevent immigration and emigration of snakes but not their prey. Visual detection probability was low overall (= 0??07 per occasion) but reached 0??18 under optimal circumstances. Our results supported sex-specific differences in detectability that were a quadratic function of size, with both small and large females having lower detection probabilities than males of those sizes. There was strong evidence for individual periodic changes in detectability of a few days duration, roughly doubling detection probability (comparing peak to non-elevated detections). Snakes in poor body condition had estimated mean detection probabilities greater than snakes with high body condition. Search teams with high average detection rates exhibited detection probabilities about twice that of search teams with low average detection rates. Surveys conducted with bright moonlight and strong wind gusts exhibited moderately decreased probabilities of detecting snakes. Synthesis and applications. By emphasizing and modelling detection probabilities, we now know: (i) that eradication of this species by searching is possible, (ii) how much searching effort would be required, (iii) under what environmental conditions searching would be most efficient, and (iv) several factors that are likely to modulate this quantification when searching is applied to new areas. The same approach can be use for evaluation of any control technology or population monitoring programme. ?? 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

Effects of level of processing at encoding and types of retrieval task in mild cognitive impairment and normal aging.

PubMed

Froger, Charlotte; Taconnat, Laurence; Landré, Lionel; Beigneux, Katia; Isingrini, Michel

2009-04-01

A total of 16 young (M = 27.25 years), 13 healthy elderly (M = 75.38 years), and 10 older adults with probable mild cognitive impairment (MCI; M = 78.6 years) carried out a task under two different encoding conditions (shallow vs. semantic) and two retrieval conditions (free recall vs. recognition). For the shallow condition, participants had to decide whether the first or last letter of each word in a list was "E." For the semantic condition, they had to decide whether each word represented a concrete or abstract entity. The MCI group was only able to benefit from semantic encoding to the same extent as the healthy older adults in the recognition task, whereas the younger and healthy older adults benefited in both retrieval tasks. These results suggest that the MCI group required cognitive support at retrieval to make effective use of semantic processing carried out at encoding. In the discussion, we suggest that adults with MCI engage more in deep processing, using the semantic network, than hitherto thought.

Depressive Symptoms and Salivary Telomere Length in a Probability Sample of Middle-Aged and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Whisman, Mark A.; Richardson, Emily D.

2016-01-01

Objective To examine the association between depressive symptoms and salivary telomere length in a probability sample of middle-aged and older adults, evaluate age and sex as potential moderators of this association, and test whether this association was incremental to potential confounds. Methods Participants were 3,609 individuals from the 2008 wave of the Health and Retirement Study. Telomere length assays were performed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) on DNA extracted from saliva samples. Depressive symptoms were assessed via interview, and health and lifestyle factors, traumatic life events, and neuroticism were assessed via self-report. Regression analyses were conducted to examine the associations between predictor variables and salivary telomere length. Results After adjusting for demographics, depressive symptoms were negatively associated with salivary telomere length (b = −.003, p = .014). Furthermore, this association was moderated by sex (b = .005, p = .011), such that depressive symptoms were significantly and negatively associated with salivary telomere length for men (b = −.006, p < .001) but not for women (b = −.001, p = .644). The negative association between depressive symptoms and salivary telomere length in men remained statistically significant after additionally adjusting for cigarette smoking, body mass index, chronic health conditions, childhood and lifetime exposure to traumatic life events, and neuroticism. Conclusions Higher levels of depressive symptoms were associated with shorter salivary telomeres in men and this association was incremental to several potential confounds. Shortened telomeres may help account for the association between depression and poor physical health and mortality. PMID:28029664

Bivariate categorical data analysis using normal linear conditional multinomial probability model.

PubMed

Sun, Bingrui; Sutradhar, Brajendra

2015-02-10

Bivariate multinomial data such as the left and right eyes retinopathy status data are analyzed either by using a joint bivariate probability model or by exploiting certain odds ratio-based association models. However, the joint bivariate probability model yields marginal probabilities, which are complicated functions of marginal and association parameters for both variables, and the odds ratio-based association model treats the odds ratios involved in the joint probabilities as 'working' parameters, which are consequently estimated through certain arbitrary 'working' regression models. Also, this later odds ratio-based model does not provide any easy interpretations of the correlations between two categorical variables. On the basis of pre-specified marginal probabilities, in this paper, we develop a bivariate normal type linear conditional multinomial probability model to understand the correlations between two categorical variables. The parameters involved in the model are consistently estimated using the optimal likelihood and generalized quasi-likelihood approaches. The proposed model and the inferences are illustrated through an intensive simulation study as well as an analysis of the well-known Wisconsin Diabetic Retinopathy status data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.

2008-01-01

In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

The impact of flavour, device type and warning messages on youth preferences for electronic nicotine delivery systems: evidence from an online discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Shang, Ce; Huang, Jidong; Chaloupka, Frank J; Emery, Sherry L

2017-11-02

To examine the impact of flavour, device type and health warning messages on youth preference for electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), and to provide evidence and data to inform the Food and Drug Administration's potential regulatory actions on ENDS. An online discrete choice experiment was conducted in September 2015. Each participant was given nine choice sets and asked to choose one out of two alternative ENDS products, with varying characteristics in three attributes (flavour, device type and warning message). The impact of the attributes on the probability of choosing ENDS was analysed using conditional and nested logit regressions, controlling for individual sociodemographic characteristics and current smoking status. A general population sample of 515 participants (50 ever-users and 465 never-users of ENDS) aged 14-17 years were recruited to complete the experiment using an online panel. Fruit/sweets/beverage flavours significantly increase the probability of choosing ENDS among youth (p<0.01 for never-users and <0.1 for ever-users) and flavour has the most pronounced impact among three attributes. Among never-users, menthol flavour also increases (p<0.05) the probability of choosing ENDS compared with tobacco flavour. Vaping devices that are modifiable, compared with cigarette-like e-cigarettes, increase (p<0.05) the probability of choosing ENDS among adolescent never-users. Warning messages reduce (p<0.01) the probability of choosing ENDS among never-users. Restricting fruit/sweets/beverage flavours in ENDS, regulating modifiable vaping devices and adopting strong health warning messages may reduce the uptake of ENDS among youth. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Validation of use of the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Urinary Incontinence-Short Form (ICIQ-UI-SF) for impairment rating: a transversal retrospective study of 120 patients.

PubMed

Timmermans, Luc; Falez, Freddy; Mélot, Christian; Wespes, Eric

2013-09-01

A urinary incontinence impairment rating must be a highly accurate, non-invasive exploration of the condition using International Classification of Functioning (ICF)-based assessment tools. The objective of this study was to identify the best evaluation test and to determine an impairment rating model of urinary incontinence. In performing a cross-sectional study comparing successive urodynamic tests using both the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Urinary Incontinence-Short Form (ICIQ-UI-SF) and the 1-hr pad-weighing test in 120 patients, we performed statistical likelihood ratio analysis and used logistic regression to calculate the probability of urodynamic incontinence using the most significant independent predictors. Subsequently, we created a template that was based on the significant predictors and the probability of urodynamic incontinence. The mean ICIQ-UI-SF score was 13.5 ± 4.6, and the median pad test value was 8 g. The discrimination statistic (receiver operating characteristic) described how well the urodynamic observations matched the ICIQ-UI-SF scores (under curve area (UDA):0.689) and the pad test data (UDA: 0.693). Using logistic regression analysis, we demonstrated that the best independent predictors of urodynamic incontinence were the patient's age and the ICIQ-UI-SF score. The logistic regression model permitted us to construct an equation to determine the probability of urodynamic incontinence. Using these tools, we created a template to generate a probability index of urodynamic urinary incontinence. Using this probability index, relative to the patient and to the maximum impairment of the whole person (MIWP) relative to urinary incontinence, we were able to calculate a patient's permanent impairment. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Constraining heating processes in the solar wind with kinetic properties of heavy ions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasper, J. C.; Tracy, P.; Zurbuchen, T.; Raines, J. M.; Gilbert, J. A.; Shearer, P.

2016-12-01

Heavy ion components (A > 4 amu) in collisionally young solar wind plasma show a clear, stable dependence of temperature on mass, probably reflecting the conditions in the solar corona. Using results from the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) onboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), we find that the heavy ion temperatures are well organized by a simple linear fit of the form Ti/Tp=(1.35+/- .02) mi/mp. Most importantly we find that the current model predictions based on turbulent transport and kinetic dissipation are in agreement with observed nonthermal heating in intermediate collisional age plasma for m/q < 3.5 amu/e, but are not in quantitative or qualitative agreement with the lowest collisional age results. These dependencies provide new constraints on the physics of ion heating in multispecies plasma, along with predictions to be tested by the upcoming Solar Probe Plus and Solar Orbiter missions to the near-Sun environment.

[Disability pensions in young age in Norway during 1976-1996].

PubMed

Bjerkedal, T

1998-06-10

A 15% increase in the incidence of 16 to 24-year olds drawing disability pension was observed in Norway from 1976 to 93. This increase is mainly a consequence of the higher numbers of pensioners because of birth defects and mental retardation. Prevalence of these conditions, which are clearly related to pregnancy, delivery, and inheritable disorders, may have increased as a consequence of the improved survival of newborn babies observed during the last two decades. A 50% increase in the incidence of disability pensions among 16 to 24-year olds has occurred in the three-year period from 1994 to 96. The higher rate is most probably a consequence of the restrictions in rehabilitation benefits introduced in 1993, and the resultant difficulties in obtaining employment. The higher incidence is a clear indicator of the need to increase assistance for the disabled in order to avoid their being pensioned at a young age.

Extended rotations and culmination age of coast douglas-fir: Old studies speak to current issues. Forest Service research paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis, R.O.

1995-11-01

Trends of mean annual increment and periodic annual increment were examined in 17 long-term thinning studies in Douglas-fir (Pseuditsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) in western Washington, western Oregon, and British Columbia. Problems in evaluating growth trends and culmination ages are discussed. None of the stands had clearly reached culmination of mean annual increment, although some seemed close. The observed trends seem generally consistent with some other recent comparisons. These comparisons indicate that rotations can be considerably extended without reducing long-term timber production; value production probably would increase. A major problem in such a strategy is design of thinning regimesmore » that can maintain a reasonable level of timber flow during the transition period while producing stand conditions compatible with other management objectives. The continuing value of long-term permanent plot studies is emphasized.« less

Labor Market Status of Older Males in the United States, 1880–1940

PubMed Central

Lee, Chulhee

2009-01-01

This article explores the labor market status of older males in the early twentieth century, focusing on how the extent of pressure toward retirement differed across occupations and how it changed over time. A comparison of the probability of retirement across occupations shows that men who had better occupations in terms of economic status and work conditions were less likely to retire than were those with poorer jobs. The difficulty faced by older workers in the labor market, as measured by the relative incidence of long-term unemployment, was relatively severe among craftsmen, operatives, and salesmen. In contrast, aged farmers, professionals, managers, and proprietors appear to have fared well in the labor market. The pattern of shifts in the occupational structure that occurred between 1880 and 1940 suggests that industrialization had brought a growth of the sectors in which the pressure toward departure from employment at old ages was relatively strong. PMID:20234793

Sleepiness/fatigue and distraction/inattention as factors for fatal versus nonfatal commercial motor vehicle driver injuries.

PubMed

Bunn, T L; Slavova, S; Struttmann, T W; Browning, S R

2005-09-01

A retrospective population-based case-control study was conducted to determine whether driver sleepiness/fatigue and inattention/distraction increase the likelihood that a commercial motor vehicle collision (CVC) will be fatal. Cases were identified as CVC drivers who died (fatal) and controls were drivers who survived (nonfatal) an injury collision using the Kentucky Collision Report Analysis for Safer Highways (CRASH) electronic database from 1998-2002. Cases and controls were matched on unit type and roadway type. Conditional logistic regression was performed. Driver sleepiness/fatigue, distraction/inattention, age of 51 years of age and older, and nonuse of safety belts increase the odds that a CVC will be fatal. Primary safety belt law enactment and enforcement for all states, commercial vehicle driver education addressing fatigue and distraction and other approaches including decreased hours-of-service, rest breaks and policy changes, etc. may decrease the probability that a CVC will be fatal.

'Mommy, I miss daddy'. The effect of family structure on children's health in Brazil.

PubMed

Ayllón, Sara; Ferreira-Batista, Natalia N

2015-12-01

This paper studies the relationship between single motherhood and children's height-for-age z-scores in Brazil. In order to isolate the causal effect between family structure and children's condition, we estimate an econometric model that uses male preference for firstborn sons and local sex ratios to instrument the probability of a woman becoming a single mother. Our results have a local average treatment effect interpretation (LATE). We find that children being raised by a single mother (whose marital status is affected by a firstborn girl and a low sex ratio) have a height-for-age z-score that is lower than that of children of similar characteristics that cohabit with both progenitors. We claim that the increasing trend of single motherhood in Brazil should be of concern in health policy design. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aging, Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA), and high potential testing of damaged cables

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vigil, R.A.; Jacobus, M.J.

1994-04-01

Experiments were conducted to assess the effects of high potential testing of cables and to assess the survivability of aged and damaged cables under Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) conditions. High potential testing at 240 Vdc/mil on undamaged cables suggested that no damage was incurred on the selected virgin cables. During aging and LOCA testing, Okonite ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) cables with a bonded jacket experienced unexpected failures. The failures appear to be primarily related to the level of thermal aging and the presence of a bonded jacket that ages more rapidly than the insulation. For Brand Rex crosslinked polyolefin (XLPO) cables,more » the results suggest that 7 mils of insulation remaining should give the cables a high probability of surviving accident exposure following aging. The voltage necessary to detect when 7 mils of insulation remain on unaged Brand Rex cables is approximately 35 kVdc. This voltage level would almost certainly be unacceptable to a utility for use as a damage assessment tool. However, additional tests indicated that a 35 kvdc voltage application would not damage virgin Brand Rex cables when tested in water. Although two damaged Rockbestos silicone rubber cables also failed during the accident test, no correlation between failures and level of damage was apparent.« less

Breast arterial calcification is associated with reproductive factors in asymptomatic postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Bielak, Lawrence F; Whaley, Dana H; Sheedy, Patrick F; Peyser, Patricia A

2010-09-01

The etiology of breast arterial calcification (BAC) is not well understood. We examined reproductive history and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor associations with the presence of detectable BAC in asymptomatic postmenopausal women. Reproductive history and CVD risk factors were obtained in 240 asymptomatic postmenopausal women from a community-based research study who had a screening mammogram within 2 years of their participation in the study. The mammograms were reviewed for the presence of detectable BAC. Age-adjusted logistic regression models were fit to assess the association between each risk factor and the presence of BAC. Multiple variable logistic regression models were used to identify the most parsimonious model for the presence of BAC. The prevalence of BAC increased with increased age (p < 0.0001). The most parsimonious logistic regression model for BAC presence included age at time of examination, increased parity (p = 0.01), earlier age at first birth (p = 0.002), weight, and an age-by-weight interaction term (p = 0.004). Older women with a smaller body size had a higher probability of having BAC than women of the same age with a larger body size. The presence or absence of BAC at mammography may provide an assessment of a postmenopausal woman's lifetime estrogen exposure and indicate women who could be at risk for hormonally related conditions.

Household water treatment and the nutritional status of primary-aged children in India: findings from the India human development survey.

PubMed

Li, Wei; Liu, Echu; BeLue, Rhonda

2018-04-17

Poor water quality, one of the leading causes of diarrhea, is an issue for most developing countries. Although the health burden of poor-quality water has been studied extensively, there is a paucity of research regarding the impact of household water treatment (HWT) on children's nutritional status using data from large-scale surveys. In this research, we study the effect of HWT on the nutritional status of primary-aged children in India using a secondary data set consisting of 20,315 children between the ages of 6 and 14 (10,523 males and 9,792 females) in 12,839 households from the second wave of the India Human Development Survey (IHDS-II). The IHDS-II is a nationally representative, household-based, comprehensive, and face-to-face survey. Households were selected using stratified random sampling, and a team consisting of one male and one female interviewer visited each household between November 2011 and October 2012. A knowledgeable member, typically the male head of household, was interviewed about the socioeconomic condition of the household. An ever-married woman between the ages of 15 and 49, typically the wife of the male head of household, answered questions related to education and health. The height and weight of all eligible household members were measured by interviewers. Correlation between HWT and nutritional status was computed first, and the estimation of a generalized simultaneous equation model, in which a binary indicator of HWT and other covariates was included, was carried out afterward. Bivariate analysis shows a negative association between the nutritional status of children and HWT. Additionally, findings from the generalized simultaneous equation model demonstrate that HWT increases the probability of producing normal-weighted primary-aged children by 1.7 %, while it decreases the probability of primary-aged children being thin by 2.5% and being severely thin by 1.7% in India. This study indicates that HWT has the potential to advance the nutritional status of primary school-aged children in India.

Pedigrees, Prizes, and Prisoners: The Misuse of Conditional Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carlton, Matthew A.

2005-01-01

We present and discuss three examples of misapplication of the notion of conditional probability. In each example, we present the problem along with a published and/or well-known incorrect--but seemingly plausible--solution. We then give a careful treatment of the correct solution, in large part to show how careful application of basic probability…

Unsolved Problems in Evolutionary Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

1967-01-01

finding the probability of survival of a single new mutant). Most natural populations probably satisfy these conditions , as is illustrated by the...Ykl) of small quantities adding to zero. Then under suitable conditions on the function f(x), (3) xi + Yi,t+i = fi(x) + YE yjfi(tf) + O(y yt...It is clear that a sufficient condition for the point x to be locally stable is that all the roots of the matrix, (4) (a j) = ____ should have moduli

Excess Ar in biotites from the Broderick Falls (Webuye) area, western Kenya: implications for the tectonothermal history of the Mozambique Belt and its Archaean foreland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibata, K.; Suwa, K.; Uchiumi, S.; Agata, T.

1996-10-01

RbSr whole rock and KAr mineral age determinations were made on rocks from the Broderick Falls (Webuye) area, western Kenya. Granitic rocks yielded a RbSr whole rock isochron age of 2555 ± 101 Ma with an initial {87Sr}/{86Sr} ratio of 0.70121 ± 0.00038. This age represents the time of granitoid emplacement. KAr mineral ages range from 574 to 3420 Ma, which is very variable with respect to mineral type and locality. Mylonitic granodiorite very close to the Nandi Escarpment gave a KAr age of 916 Ma from biotite, suggesting the time of the activity of the Nandi Fault, which may be an earlier phase of the Pan-African Orogeny. Ages of biotites in a zone between 4 and 6 km northeast of the Nandi Fault are anomalously high compared to those of coexisting hornblende and the RbSr isochron age, confirming the existence of excess 40Ar in biotite. Excess 40Ar was probably introduced into biotite under the appropriate temperature conditions prevailing near the Nandi Fault. Taramite, a rare sodic-calcic amphibole, was found in a cordierite-biotite gneiss of the Kavirondian Supergroup and gave a typical Pan-African KAr age of 574 Ma. The last Pan-African metamorphism occurred in the terrane east of the Surongai Thrust.

Reversal of age-related learning deficiency by the vertebrate PACAP and IGF-1 in a novel invertebrate model of aging: the pond snail (Lymnaea stagnalis).

PubMed

Pirger, Zsolt; Naskar, Souvik; László, Zita; Kemenes, György; Reglődi, Dóra; Kemenes, Ildikó

2014-11-01

With the increase of life span, nonpathological age-related memory decline is affecting an increasing number of people. However, there is evidence that age-associated memory impairment only suspends, rather than irreversibly extinguishes, the intrinsic capacity of the aging nervous system for plasticity (1). Here, using a molluscan model system, we show that the age-related decline in memory performance can be reversed by administration of the pituitary adenylate cyclase activating polypeptide (PACAP). Our earlier findings showed that a homolog of the vertebrate PACAP38 and its receptors exist in the pond snail (Lymnaea stagnalis) brain (2), and it is both necessary and instructive for memory formation after reward conditioning in young animals (3). Here we show that exogenous PACAP38 boosts memory formation in aged Lymnaea, where endogenous PACAP38 levels are low in the brain. Treatment with insulin-like growth factor-1, which in vertebrates was shown to transactivate PACAP type I (PAC1) receptors (4) also boosts memory formation in aged pond snails. Due to the evolutionarily conserved nature of these polypeptides and their established role in memory and synaptic plasticity, there is a very high probability that they could also act as "memory rejuvenating" agents in humans. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.

Assessment Of Noise-induced Sleep Fragility In Two Age Ranges By Means Of Polysomnographic Microstructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terzano, M. G.; Parrino, L.; Spaggiari, M. C.; Buccino, G. P.; Fioriti, G.; Depoortere, H.

1993-04-01

The microstructure of sleep, which translates the short-lived fluctuations of the arousal level, is a commonly neglected feature in polysomnographic studies. Specifically arranged microstructural EEG events may provide important information on the dynamic characteristics of the sleep process. CAP (cyclic alternating pattern) and non-CAP are complementary modalities in which arousal-related "phasic" EEG phenomena are organized in non-REM sleep, and they correspond to opposite conditions of unstable and stable sleep depth, respectively. Thus, arousal instability can be measured by the CAP rate, the percentage ratio of total CAP time to total non-REM sleep time. The CAP rate, an age-related physiological variable that increases in several pathological conditions, is highly sensitive to acoustic perturbation. In the present study, two groups of healthy subjects without complaints about sleep, belonging to different age ranges (six young adults, three males and three females, between 20 and 30 years, and six middle-aged individuals, three males and three females, between 40 and 55 years) slept, after adaptation to the sleep laboratory, in a random sequence for two non-consecutive nights either under silent baseline (27·3 dB(A) Lcq) or noise-disturbed (continuous 55 dB(A) white noise) conditions. Age-related and noise-related effects on traditional sleep parameters and on the CAP rate were statistically evaluated by a split-plot test. Compared to young adults, the middle-aged individuals showed a significant reduction of total sleep time, stage 2 and REM sleep and significantly higher values of nocturnal awakenings and the CAP rate. The noisy nights were characterized by similar alterations. The disruptive effects of acoustic perturbation were greater on the more fragile sleep architecture of the older group. The increased fragility of sleep associated with aging probably reflects the decreased capacity of the sleeping brain to maintain steady states of vigilance. Total non-REM sleep described by traditional parameters was statistically unaffected during the disturbed nights, but the perturbing effects of noise on non-REM sleep stability and continuity were revealed by a significant increase in the CAP rate. The perspectives for a wide-ranging exploitation of this sleep parameter are discussed.

Should Patients With Frozen Shoulder Be Screened for Diabetes Mellitus?

PubMed Central

Safran, Ori; El-Haj, Madi; Leibowitz, Gil; Beyth, Shaul; Furman, Zohar; Milgrom, Charles; Kandel, Leonid

2017-01-01

Background: Idiopathic frozen shoulder (nontraumatic) is commonly encountered in patients between the ages of 35 and 60 years in general orthopaedic practice. While the prevalence of frozen shoulder among the general population is estimated to be between 2% and 4%, a significantly higher prevalence of 10% to 22% has been reported in patients with diabetes mellitus. Since diabetic patients are more prone to develop frozen shoulder than nondiabetics, the question arises as to whether patients diagnosed as having idiopathic frozen shoulder are at greater risk to develop diabetes mellitus and should be routinely screened for this condition. Purpose: To compare the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and prediabetes among patients diagnosed with idiopathic frozen shoulder who are not known to have either diabetes mellitus or prediabetic conditions with that of an age-matched group from the general population. Study Design: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: Patients at a shoulder clinic with a diagnosis of idiopathic frozen shoulder were asked to participate in the study if they were aged between 35 to 60 years and had no known previous diagnosis of diabetes mellitus or prediabetic conditions. These patients underwent a 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test. According to their fasting and 2-hour plasma glucose levels, patients were diagnosed as normal glucose tolerance, prediabetic, or diabetic. Findings were matched with the prevalence in an age-matched general population. Results: Fifty patients completed the test. Four patients with idiopathic frozen shoulder (8%) were found to be prediabetic. No patient was found to be diabetic. All 4 patients reported a history of diabetes in their parents or siblings. Conclusion: Patients diagnosed with idiopathic frozen shoulder who are 60 years or younger and are not known diabetics have a similar probability of having diabetes or prediabetes to an age-matched population. No routine diabetic workup is warranted specifically for these patients. PMID:28812038

Age-adjusted versus clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer to exclude pulmonary embolism.

PubMed

Takach Lapner, Sarah; Stevens, Scott M; Woller, Scott C; Snow, Gregory; Kearon, Clive

2018-05-05

A low D-dimer can exclude suspected pulmonary embolism (PE) in cases with low or intermediate clinical probability of disease. Yet D-dimer is nonspecific, so many cases without PE require imaging. D-dimer's specificity is improved by increasing the threshold for a positive test with age (age × 10 ng/mL; age-adjusted D-dimer; AADD) or clinical probability of PE (1000 ng/mL if low and 500 ng/mL if intermediate clinical probability; clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer; CPADD). It is unclear which approach is preferable. We report the sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value (NPV) of AADD compared to CPADD in suspected PE. A retrospective cohort of 3500 consecutive cases imaged for suspected PE at two U.S. emergency departments was assembled. We analyzed cases with low or intermediate clinical probability of PE (Revised Geneva Score) who had a D-dimer. The outcome was acute PE on imaging at presentation. Of the 3500 cases, 1745 were eligible. 37% were low, and 63% were intermediate clinical probability of PE. PE was present in 145 (8.3%) cases. Sensitivity of CPADD was 87.5% vs. 96.6% for AADD (difference 9.1%; 95% CI 4.3% to 14.0%). NPV of CPADD was 97.1% vs. 99.0% for AADD (difference 1.9%; 95% CI, 0.7% to 3.1%). Specificity of CPADD was 37.5% vs. 30.2% for AADD (difference -7.3%; 95% CI -9.4% to -5.1%). D-dimer was negative in 35.4% of cases using CPADD vs. 28.0% using AADD. CPADD modestly improved the specificity of D-dimer, but had a lower NPV than AADD. AADD appears preferable in this analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Task-set switching under cue-based versus memory-based switching conditions in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Kray, Jutta

2006-08-11

Adult age differences in task switching and advance preparation were examined by comparing cue-based and memory-based switching conditions. Task switching was assessed by determining two types of costs that occur at the general (mixing costs) and specific (switching costs) level of switching. Advance preparation was investigated by varying the time interval until the next task (short, middle, very long). Results indicated that the implementation of task sets was different for cue-based switching with random task sequences and memory-based switching with predictable task sequences. Switching costs were strongly reduced under cue-based switching conditions, indicating that task-set cues facilitate the retrieval of the next task. Age differences were found for mixing costs and for switching costs only under cue-based conditions in which older adults showed smaller switching costs than younger adults. It is suggested that older adults adopt a less extreme bias between two tasks than younger adults in situations associated with uncertainty. For cue-based switching with random task sequences, older adults are less engaged in a complete reconfiguration of task sets because of the probability of a further task change. Furthermore, the reduction of switching costs was more pronounced for cue- than memory-based switching for short preparation intervals, whereas the reduction of switch costs was more pronounced for memory- than cue-based switching for longer preparation intervals at least for older adults. Together these findings suggest that the implementation of task sets is functionally different for the two types of task-switching conditions.

Working conditions in mid-life and mental health in older ages.

PubMed

Wahrendorf, Morten; Blane, David; Bartley, Mel; Dragano, Nico; Siegrist, Johannes

2013-03-01

This article illustrates the importance of previous working conditions during mid-life (between 40 and 55) for mental health among older retired men and women (60 or older) across 13 European countries. We link information on health from the second wave (2006-2007) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) with information on respondents' working life collected retrospectively in the SHARELIFE interview (2008-2009). To measure working conditions, we rely on core assumptions of existing theoretical models of work stress (the demand-control-support and the effort-reward imbalance model) and distinguish four types of unhealthy working conditions: (1) a stressful psychosocial work environment (as assessed by the two work stress models) (2) a disadvantaged occupational position throughout the whole period of mid-life, (3) experience of involuntary job loss, and (4) exposure to job instability. Health after labour market exit is measured using depressive symptoms, as measured by the EURO-D depression scale. Main results show that men and women who experienced psychosocial stress at work or had low occupational positions during mid-life had significantly higher probabilities of high depressive symptoms during retirement. Additionally, men with unstable working careers and an involuntary job loss were at higher risks to report high depressive symptoms in later life. These associations remain significant after controlling for workers' health and social position prior mid-life. These findings support the assumption that mental health of retirees who experienced poor working conditions during mid-life is impaired. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inferring diagnosis and trajectory of wet age-related macular degeneration from OCT imagery of retina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irvine, John M.; Ghadar, Nastaran; Duncan, Steve; Floyd, David; O'Dowd, David; Lin, Kristie; Chang, Tom

2017-03-01

Quantitative biomarkers for assessing the presence, severity, and progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) would benefit research, diagnosis, and treatment. This paper explores development of quantitative biomarkers derived from OCT imagery of the retina. OCT images for approximately 75 patients with Wet AMD, Dry AMD, and no AMD (healthy eyes) were analyzed to identify image features indicative of the patients' conditions. OCT image features provide a statistical characterization of the retina. Healthy eyes exhibit a layered structure, whereas chaotic patterns indicate the deterioration associated with AMD. Our approach uses wavelet and Frangi filtering, combined with statistical features that do not rely on image segmentation, to assess patient conditions. Classification analysis indicates clear separability of Wet AMD from other conditions, including Dry AMD and healthy retinas. The probability of correct classification of was 95.7%, as determined from cross validation. Similar classification analysis predicts the response of Wet AMD patients to treatment, as measured by the Best Corrected Visual Acuity (BCVA). A statistical model predicts BCVA from the imagery features with R2 = 0.846. Initial analysis of OCT imagery indicates that imagery-derived features can provide useful biomarkers for characterization and quantification of AMD: Accurate assessment of Wet AMD compared to other conditions; image-based prediction of outcome for Wet AMD treatment; and features derived from the OCT imagery accurately predict BCVA; unlike many methods in the literature, our techniques do not rely on segmentation of the OCT image. Next steps include larger scale testing and validation.

Iodine-xenon studies of Allende inclusions - Eggs and the Pink Angel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swindle, T. D.; Caffee, M. W.; Hohenberg, C. M.

1988-01-01

The I-Xe systems of six Allende inclusions (five Eggs and the Pink Angel) appear to have been altered by nonnebular secondary processes. Evidence for this includes temperature-ordered variations in the initial I isotopic composition within several objects (with older apparent I-Xe ages associated with higher extraction temperatures) and the absence of primitive I-Xe ages. The span of apparent ages seen in Allende objects (10 Myr or more) is probably too long to reflect any nebular process, so at least some alteration probably occurred ont the parent body. The range in initial (Pu-244)/(U-238) ratios for the Eggs (0.003-0.014) includes the current best estimates of the bulk solar system value (0.004-0.007). For Egg 3, the Pu/U ratio varies by a factor of two between extractions, probably the result of fractionation of Pu from U among different phases.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swindle, T.D.; Caffee, M.W.; Hohenberg, C.M.

The iodine-xenon systems of six Allende inclusions (five Eggs and the Pink Angel) appear to have been altered by non-nebular secondary processes. Evidence for this includes temperature-ordered variations in the initial I isotopic composition within several objects (with older apparent I-Xe ages associated with higher extraction temperatures) and the absence of primitive I-Xe ages. The span of apparent ages seen in Allende objects (10 Ma or more) is probably too long to reflect any nebular process, so at least some alteration probably occurred on the parent body. The range in initial {sup 244}Pu/{sup 238}U ratios for the Eggs (3-14 {times}more » 10{sup minus 3}) includes the current best estimates of the bulk solar system value (4-7 {times} 10{sup minus 3}). For Egg 3, the Pu/U ratio varies by a factor of two between extractions, probably the result of fractionation of Pu from U among different phases.« less

A new method to determine wound age in early vital skin injuries: a probability scoring system using expression levels of Fibronectin, CD62p and Factor VIII in wound hemorrhage.

PubMed

van de Goot, Franklin R W; Korkmaz, H Ibrahim; Fronczek, Judith; Witte, Birgit I; Visser, Rob; Ulrich, Magda M W; Begieneman, Mark P V; Rozendaal, Lawrence; Krijnen, Paul A J; Niessen, Hans W M

2014-11-01

In forensic autopsies it is important to determine the age of early vital skin wounds as accurate as possible. In addition to inflammation, coagulation is also induced in vital wounds. Analysis of blood coagulation markers in wound hemorrhage could therefore be an important additional discriminating factor in wound age determination. The aim of this study was to develop a wound age probability scoring system, based on the immunohistochemical expression levels of Fibronectin, CD62p and Factor VIII in wound hemorrhage. Tissue samples of (A) non injured control skin (n=383), and samples of mechanically induced skin injuries of known wound age, (B) injuries inflicted shortly before death (up to a few minutes old) (n=382), and (C) injuries inflicted 15-30 min before death (n=42) were obtained at autopsy in order to validate wound age estimation. Tissue slides were stained for Fibronectin, CD62p and Factor VIII and were subsequently scored for staining intensity (IHC score) in wound hemorrhage (1=minor, 2=moderate, 3=strong positive). Finally, probability scores of these markers were calculated. In at most 14% of the non-injured control samples, hemorrhage was found, with mean±standard deviation IHC scores of 0.1±0.4, 0.2±0.4 and 0.2±0.5 for Fibronectin, CD62p, and Factor VIII, respectively. Expression of these markers significantly increased to mean IHC scores 1.4±0.8 (Fibronectin), 1.2±0.6 (CD62p), and 1.6±0.8 (Factor VIII) in wounds inflicted shortly before death (few minutes old) and to 2.6±0.5 (Fibronectin), 2.5±0.6 (CD62p), and 2.8±0.4 (Factor VIII) in 15-30 min old wounds. The probabilities that a wound was non vital in case of an IH score 0 were 87%, 88% and 90% for Fibronectin, CD62p, and Factor VIII, respectively. In case of an IHC score 1 or 2, the probabilities that a wound was a few minutes old were 82/90%, 82/83% and 72/93%. Finally, in case of an IHC score 3, the probabilities that a wound was 15-30 min old were 65%, 76% and 55%. Based on the expression of Fibronectin, CD62p and Factor VIII in wound hemorrhage, we developed a probability scoring system that can be used in forensic autopsies to improve wound age estimation in early skin injuries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing the Probability Related Misconceptions of Pupils at Different Education Levels=Usporedba pogrješnih predodžaba o konceptima vjerojatnosti kod ucenika razlicitog stupnja obrazovanja

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gürbüz, Ramazan; Birgin, Osman; Çatlioglu, Hakan

2012-01-01

The aim of the paper is to compare and evaluate the probability-related misconceptions of pupils at different education levels. A cross-sectional/age study was thus conducted with 540 pupils in 5th-8th grades. An instrument, comprising six questions on the concepts of compound events, probability of an event and probability comparisons, was used.…

Age-related changes in pre- and post-conization HPV genotype distribution among women with high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.

PubMed

Giannella, Luca; Fodero, Cristina; Boselli, Fausto; Rubino, Teresa; Mfuta, Kabala; Prandi, Sonia

2017-04-01

To assess the effect of age on pre- and post-conization HPV genotype distribution. The present retrospective observational study included consecutive women with high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia who underwent conization at the Cervical Cancer Screening Centre of Reggio Emilia, Italy, and University Hospital of Modena, Italy, between February 1, 2012, and October 31, 2014. Pre-conization and 6-month post-conization HPV genotyping results were compared between four age groups (<30, 30-39, 40-49, and ≥50 years) and age-related changes in the HPV genotypes present were evaluated. There were 162 patients included. The lowest occurrence of pre-conization high-risk and probable high-risk HPV genotypes was observed among patients aged at least 50 years when compared with younger patients (P=0.017). Conversely, women aged at least 50 years exhibited the highest level of post-conization high-risk and probable high-risk HPV genotypes (P=0.043). Additionally, an increasing incidence of recording identical pre- and post-conization HPV genotypes was associated with increasing age (P=0.024), as was increasing post-treatment recurrence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (P=0.030). The presence of high-risk and probable high-risk HPV genotypes was lowest among older patients before conization and was highest among these patients post-conization; post-treatment HPV clearance decreased with age and increasing age could be a risk factor for post-conization recurrence. © 2017 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

Well-being changes in response to 30 years of regional integration in Maya populations from Yucatan, Mexico.

PubMed

Gurri, F D; Pereira, G B; Moran, E F

2001-01-01

Infant mortality rate (IMR), overall frequency of linear enamel hypoplasia (LEH), sexual dimorphism in LEH, age of onset of LEH, and age at menarche were used as indicators to test the hypothesis that the origin and development of the tourist industry and increased state participation on Maya subsistence agriculturists in the early 1970s had improved the well-being of the Maya. Two historical moments where inferred from the data. The first was derived from cheap and effective immunization and sanitation campaigns that reduced IMR from 143.4/1,000 live births in the early 1960s to 97.4 in the early 1970s. State participation broke the undernutrition-disease cycle enough to reduce LEH frequencies significantly (from 71.9% in individuals born before 1971 to 51.5% in those born in 1971 or after, chi(2) = 55.72; 1 df; alpha = 0.00001) and to eliminate the sex difference in LEH expression (from a 14.8% LEH difference between men and women before 1971 [Male/Female Odds Radio = 0.45, alpha significant at 0.05] to a nonsignificant 2% difference). Improvement in overall living conditions reflected in a "modern stage" infant mortality regime and an almost disappearance of LEHs, resulted from gradual improvements in living conditions that did not become apparent until the 1980s. Trends in the age at menarche are not statistically significant, probably due to methodological limitations. However, if overall living conditions continue to improve or stay as they are today, accelerations in maturation should become noticeable.

The demography of aging in the industrializing portion of the Pacific rim: a case for gender justice.

PubMed

Cowart, M E; Serow, W J

1995-05-01

The authors examine the impact of probable future trends in demographic aging on women's roles in the newly industrializing countries of the Pacific Rim (in Southeastern and east Asia). They also suggest that women will in all probability be expected to cope with additional household and family responsibilities due to demographic aging at a time when they are trying to change gender status and improve gender equity, and that these growing responsibilities could severely handicap women's efforts to play a larger role in the economy and in policy making.

Electrophysiological evidence that top-down knowledge controls working memory processing for subsequent visual search.

PubMed

Kawashima, Tomoya; Matsumoto, Eriko

2016-03-23

Items in working memory guide visual attention toward a memory-matching object. Recent studies have shown that when searching for an object this attentional guidance can be modulated by knowing the probability that the target will match an item in working memory. Here, we recorded the P3 and contralateral delay activity to investigate how top-down knowledge controls the processing of working memory items. Participants performed memory task (recognition only) and memory-or-search task (recognition or visual search) in which they were asked to maintain two colored oriented bars in working memory. For visual search, we manipulated the probability that target had the same color as memorized items (0, 50, or 100%). Participants knew the probabilities before the task. Target detection in 100% match condition was faster than that in 50% match condition, indicating that participants used their knowledge of the probabilities. We found that the P3 amplitude in 100% condition was larger than in other conditions and that contralateral delay activity amplitude did not vary across conditions. These results suggest that more attention was allocated to the memory items when observers knew in advance that their color would likely match a target. This led to better search performance despite using qualitatively equal working memory representations.

ELIPGRID-PC: A PC program for calculating hot spot probabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davidson, J.R.

1994-10-01

ELIPGRID-PC, a new personal computer program has been developed to provide easy access to Singer`s 1972 ELIPGRID algorithm for hot-spot detection probabilities. Three features of the program are the ability to determine: (1) the grid size required for specified conditions, (2) the smallest hot spot that can be sampled with a given probability, and (3) the approximate grid size resulting from specified conditions and sampling cost. ELIPGRID-PC also provides probability of hit versus cost data for graphing with spread-sheets or graphics software. The program has been successfully tested using Singer`s published ELIPGRID results. An apparent error in the original ELIPGRIDmore » code has been uncovered and an appropriate modification incorporated into the new program.« less

Risk estimation using probability machines

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

Risk estimation using probability machines.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Abhijit; Szymczak, Silke; Moore, Jason H; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Malley, James D

2014-03-01

Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a "risk machine", will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from.

[Health insurance for infants and infant vaccination related to forced-displacement in Colombia].

PubMed

Ruiz-Rodríguez, Myriam; Vera-Cala, Lina M; López-Barbosa, Nahyr

2008-01-01

Determining vaccination coverage amongst children (<5 years old) having multiple socio-economic risk factors and their relationship to insurance status. This was a cross-sectional study of 514 families from urban settlements receiving people displaced by the armed conflict in 4 municipalities in the Santander department ( Colombia ). The households were selected by probabilistic sampling, using proportional modelling by municipality. Immunisation data was collected from vaccination cards; interviews provided socio-demographic data. The dependent variable consisted of having the complete vaccination scheme by age according to the official Ministry of Social Protection's programme. The probability of being vaccinated was modelled by a logistical regression, adjusted for sociodemographic variables. 369 children were studied, of whom 48,8 % belonged to families displaced by the armed conflict. 46,1 % of the people being interviewed presented their vaccination cards. Contrary to what had been expected, only 21,2 % of those having a vaccination card were insured and 22,9 % of them had a complete vaccination scheme for their age. The probability of having a complete vaccination scheme for those individuals who were covered by the subsidised health system was 2,4 times higher when compared to those who were not insured (p=0.042). Low vaccination coverage indicated barriers for people living in conditions of poverty and displacement obtaining health services and low insurance coverage suggested faults in health insurance policies addressing similar populations.

Late Bronze Age climate change and the destruction of the Mycenaean Palace of Nestor at Pylos

PubMed Central

Holmgren, Karin; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Hu, Hsun-Ming; Boyd, Meighan; Stocker, Sharon

2017-01-01

This paper offers new high-resolution oxygen and carbon isotope data from Stalagmite S1 from Mavri Trypa Cave, SW Peloponnese. Our data provide the climate background to the destruction of the nearby Mycenaean Palace of Nestor at Pylos at the transition from Late Helladic (LH) IIIB to LH IIIC, ~3150–3130 years before present (before AD 1950, hereafter yrs BP) and the subsequent period. S1 is dated by 24 U-Th dates with an averaged precision of ±26 yrs (2σ), providing one of the most robust paleoclimate records from the eastern Mediterranean for the end of the Late Bronze Age (LBA). The δ18O record shows generally wetter conditions at the time when the Palace of Nestor at Pylos was destroyed, but a brief period of drier conditions around 3200 yrs BP may have disrupted the Mycenaean agricultural system that at the time was likely operating close to its limit. Gradually developing aridity after 3150 yrs BP, i.e. subsequent to the destruction, probably reduced crop yields and helped to erode the basis for the reinstitution of a central authority and the Palace itself. PMID:29281669

Late Bronze Age climate change and the destruction of the Mycenaean Palace of Nestor at Pylos.

PubMed

Finné, Martin; Holmgren, Karin; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Hu, Hsun-Ming; Boyd, Meighan; Stocker, Sharon

2017-01-01

This paper offers new high-resolution oxygen and carbon isotope data from Stalagmite S1 from Mavri Trypa Cave, SW Peloponnese. Our data provide the climate background to the destruction of the nearby Mycenaean Palace of Nestor at Pylos at the transition from Late Helladic (LH) IIIB to LH IIIC, ~3150-3130 years before present (before AD 1950, hereafter yrs BP) and the subsequent period. S1 is dated by 24 U-Th dates with an averaged precision of ±26 yrs (2σ), providing one of the most robust paleoclimate records from the eastern Mediterranean for the end of the Late Bronze Age (LBA). The δ18O record shows generally wetter conditions at the time when the Palace of Nestor at Pylos was destroyed, but a brief period of drier conditions around 3200 yrs BP may have disrupted the Mycenaean agricultural system that at the time was likely operating close to its limit. Gradually developing aridity after 3150 yrs BP, i.e. subsequent to the destruction, probably reduced crop yields and helped to erode the basis for the reinstitution of a central authority and the Palace itself.

Severe tricuspid regurgitation in the aged: atrial remodeling associated with long-standing atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Yamasaki, Naohito; Kondo, Fumiaki; Kubo, Toru; Okawa, Makoto; Matsumura, Yoshihisa; Kitaoka, Hiroaki; Yabe, Toshikazu; Furuno, Takashi; Doi, Yoshinori

2006-12-01

Severe idiopathic tricuspid regurgitation (TR) occurs in the aged, but the mechanism of TR is unclear and there is little information on atrial abnormalities associated with this condition. This study retrospectively analyzed patients with severe functional TR presenting with common clinical features suggesting a distinct syndrome. Eleven patients with severe functional TR were identified by reviewing the records of 16,235 consecutive patients. All patients had undergone clinical evaluation including echocardiography, electrocardiography and laboratory data. The median age of patients with severe functional TR was 78 years. All had a long-standing history of atrial fibrillation (median duration, 23 years). Clinical features are characterized by severe functional TR due to annular dilation, markedly dilated right atrium, episodes of right-sided heart failure, absent or diminished fibrillation waves on electrocardiogram, bradycardia probably due to partial atrial standstill, and decreased atrial natriuretic peptide secretion. During long-term follow up, right atrial size progressively increased in association with worsening TR. Severe functional TR occurs with long-standing atrial fibrillation and causes right-sided heart failure. The TR is caused by tricuspid valve systolic coaptation loss due to tricuspid annular dilation associated with atrial dilation. This condition is associated with atrial abnormalities, such as atrial standstill and impaired atrial natriuretic peptide secretion. We propose that atrial remodeling associated with atrial fibrillation is central to the occurrence of the syndrome.

Burnout, working conditions and gender - results from the northern Sweden MONICA Study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Sick-leave because of mental and behavioural disorders has increased considerably in Sweden since the late nineties, and especially in women. The aim of this study was to assess the level of burnout in the general working population in northern Sweden and analyse it's relation to working conditions and gender. Methods In this cross-sectional study the survey from the MONICA-study (Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease) in northern Sweden 2004 was used. A burnout instrument, the Shirom Melamed Burnout Questionnaire (SMBQ), was incorporated in the original survey which was sent to a random sample of 2500 individuals with a response rate of 76%. After including only actively working people, aged 25-64 years, our study population consisted of 1000 participants (497 women and 503 men). ANOVA and multiple linear regression models were used. Results The prevalence of a high level of burnout (SMBQ >4.0) was 13%. Women had a higher level of burnout than men with the most pronounced difference in the age group 35-44 years. In both sexes the level of burnout decreased with age. Demand and control at work, and job insecurity were related to burnout. In women the level of education, socioeconomic position, work object, and working varying hours were of importance. Interaction effects were found between sex and work object, and sex and working hours. In a multiple regression analysis almost half of the gender difference could be explained by work related and life situational factors. Conclusions Working life conditions contributed to the level of burnout in this actively working sample from the general population in northern Sweden. Especially in women, socioeconomic position was associated with burnout. The high level of burnout in women compared to men was partly explained by more unfavourable working conditions and life situational factors. Efforts to level out gender differences in burnout should probably focus on improving both working and socioeconomic conditions for women. PMID:20534136

[Characteristics of physical growth of schoolchildren in Mongolia and their forming factors].

PubMed

Pogorelova, I G; Amgalan, G

The article considers the findings of hygienic assessments of educational conditions in urban and rural schools in Mongolia and socio-economic conditions of living of schoolchildren and analysis of anthropometric measurements of schoolchildren aged of 7-16 years in relation to the assessment of harmonicity of their physical development. Hygienic conditions in Mongolian schools are characterized by improper organization of the educational - accomplishment process, high occupancy rate in classes causing insufficient space for a pupil and disconformity of school furniture parameters of school desks and chairs to growth and age requirements of pupils. Comparative assessment of socio-economic factors revealed (выделено автором) that the majority (84.1%) of rural pupils reside in uncomfortable houses and gerdwellings, 58.5 % - in large families with many children, 46.3 % - in families with poor living conditions. There were obtained data about differences in physical development of urban and rural schoolchildren pronounced with age by the gain in the number of children with disharmonious development and children with lower physical indices of the development, delayed by 1-2 years appearance of the crossing of growth and growth shift typical for rural children in comparison with their urban counterparts. According to results of multivariate regression analysis most significant factors for the formation of physical development of school children in descending order are academic workload, the place of residence, the number of children in the family, uncomfortable living conditions, household income and parent’s education. In the presence of these factors, the risk of the formation of disharmonious physical growth of school children increases by 1.8-2.8 times. The probability of the risk offormation of disharmonious physical development of schoolchildren living in rural areas was found to be by 2.5 times more than for their urban counterparts. The results can be usedfor scientific substantiation and development of targeted health measures.

Revised definition of neuropathic pain and its grading system: an open case series illustrating its use in clinical practice.

PubMed

Geber, Christian; Baumgärtner, Ulf; Schwab, Rainer; Müller, Harald; Stoeter, Peter; Dieterich, Marianne; Sommer, Clemens; Birklein, Frank; Treede, Rolf-Detlef

2009-10-01

The definition of neuropathic pain has recently been revised by an expert committee of the Neuropathic Pain Special Interest Group of the International Association for the Study of Pain (NeuPSIG) as "pain arising as direct consequence of a lesion or disease affecting the somatosensory system," and a grading system of "definite," "probable," and "possible" neuropathic pain has been introduced. This open case series of 5 outpatients (3 men, 2 women; mean age 48 +/- 12 years) demonstrates how the grading system can be applied, in combination with appropriate confirmatory testing, to diagnosis neuropathic conditions in clinical practice. The proposed grading system includes a dynamic algorithm that enhances the physician's ability to determine with a greater level of certainty whether a pain condition is neuropathic. Its clinical use should be further validated in prospective studies.

Ageing of structural materials in tokamaks: TEXTOR liner study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weckmann, A.; Petersson, P.; Rubel, M.; Fortuna-Zaleśna, E.; Zielinski, W.; Romelczyk-Baishya, B.; Grigore, E.; Ruset, C.; Kreter, A.

2017-12-01

After the final shut-down of the tokamak TEXTOR, all of its machine parts became accessible for comprehensive studies. This unique opportunity enabled the study of the Inconel 625 liner by a wide range of methods. The aim was to evaluate eventual alteration of surface and bulk characteristics from recessed wall elements that may influence the machine performance. The surface was covered with stratified layers consisting mainly of boron, carbon, oxygen, and in some cases also silicon. Wall conditioning and limiter materials hence predominantly define deposition on the liner. Deposited layers on recessed wall elements reach micrometre thickness within decades, peel off and may contribute to the dust inventory in tokamaks. Deuterium content was about 4,7 at% on average most probably due to wall conditioning with deuterated gas, and very low concentration in the Inconel substrate. Inconel 625 retained its mechanical strength despite 26 years of cyclic heating, stresses and particle bombardment.

Effects of sampling conditions on DNA-based estimates of American black bear abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laufenberg, Jared S.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Clark, Joseph D.

2013-01-01

DNA-based capture-mark-recapture techniques are commonly used to estimate American black bear (Ursus americanus) population abundance (N). Although the technique is well established, many questions remain regarding study design. In particular, relationships among N, capture probability of heterogeneity mixtures A and B (pA and pB, respectively, or p, collectively), the proportion of each mixture (π), number of capture occasions (k), and probability of obtaining reliable estimates of N are not fully understood. We investigated these relationships using 1) an empirical dataset of DNA samples for which true N was unknown and 2) simulated datasets with known properties that represented a broader array of sampling conditions. For the empirical data analysis, we used the full closed population with heterogeneity data type in Program MARK to estimate N for a black bear population in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee. We systematically reduced the number of those samples used in the analysis to evaluate the effect that changes in capture probabilities may have on parameter estimates. Model-averaged N for females and males were 161 (95% CI = 114–272) and 100 (95% CI = 74–167), respectively (pooled N = 261, 95% CI = 192–419), and the average weekly p was 0.09 for females and 0.12 for males. When we reduced the number of samples of the empirical data, support for heterogeneity models decreased. For the simulation analysis, we generated capture data with individual heterogeneity covering a range of sampling conditions commonly encountered in DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies and examined the relationships between those conditions and accuracy (i.e., probability of obtaining an estimated N that is within 20% of true N), coverage (i.e., probability that 95% confidence interval includes true N), and precision (i.e., probability of obtaining a coefficient of variation ≤20%) of estimates using logistic regression. The capture probability for the larger of 2 mixture proportions of the population (i.e., pA or pB, depending on the value of π) was most important for predicting accuracy and precision, whereas capture probabilities of both mixture proportions (pA and pB) were important to explain variation in coverage. Based on sampling conditions similar to parameter estimates from the empirical dataset (pA = 0.30, pB = 0.05, N = 250, π = 0.15, and k = 10), predicted accuracy and precision were low (60% and 53%, respectively), whereas coverage was high (94%). Increasing pB, the capture probability for the predominate but most difficult to capture proportion of the population, was most effective to improve accuracy under those conditions. However, manipulation of other parameters may be more effective under different conditions. In general, the probabilities of obtaining accurate and precise estimates were best when p≥ 0.2. Our regression models can be used by managers to evaluate specific sampling scenarios and guide development of sampling frameworks or to assess reliability of DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies.

Food, mechanic and septic complications in patients enterally nutritioned in home conditions.

PubMed

Kalita, Monika; Majewska, Krystyna; Gradowska, Aleksandra; Karwowska, Katarzyna; Ławiński, Michał

2015-02-03

Home enteral nutrition (HEN for short) allows practically normal living for patients who cannot be fed orally but at the same time do not have to stay in hospitals, which is often found to decrease their mental condition, increase of probability of complications and costs of medical treatment. The aim of the study was to analyze the frequency of nutritional, mechanical and septic complications in patients fed enterally in home conditions. The study performed using retrospective analysis of study results and reports from control visits for patients in the period between 2012-2013. 147 patients fed enterally using HEN method participated in the study, including 70 men and 77 women aged 19 to 99 years (average 65 years). The following type of gastrointestinal tract access was used for patients: PEG in 113 (76.5%), feeding jejunostomy - 21 (1.4%), PEG-PEJ - 5 (3.5%), in case of the remaining 8 patients the nasogastric gavage (5.5%) was used. The most common complication were infections (of gastric tract, skin soft tissue in the region of nutritional fistula entry, in three cases the aspiration pneumonia was diagnosed) found in 55 (49.1%) of cases. Mechanical complications were found out in 29 (25.9% of all complications), nutritional complications were present 28 times, which constituted 25% of all complications. In the studied group of patients with an implemented HEN procedure, septic complications were the most common problem. The longest average nutrition time with PEG-PEJ probably results from the effective protection of the patient against aspiration pneumonia.

Parental Predictions and Perceptions Regarding Long-Term Childhood Obesity-Related Health Risks

PubMed Central

Wright, Davene R.; Lozano, Paula; Dawson-Hahn, Elizabeth; Christakis, Dimitri A.; Haaland, Wren; Basu, Anirban

2016-01-01

Objectives To assess how parents perceive long-term risks for developing obesity-related chronic health conditions. Methods A web-based nationally representative survey was administered to 502 U.S. parents with a 5–12 year old child. Parents reported whether their child was most likely to be at a healthy weight or overweight, and the probability that their child would develop hypertension, heart disease, depression, or type 2 diabetes in adulthood. Responses of parents of children with overweight and obesity were compared to those of healthy weight children using multivariate models. Results The survey had an overall response rate of 39.2%. The mean (SD) unadjusted parent predicted health risks were 15.4% (17.7%), 11.2% (14.7%), 12.5% (16.2%), and 12.1% (16.1%) for hypertension, heart disease, depression, and diabetes, respectively. Despite under-perceiving their child’s current BMI class, parents of children with obesity estimate their children to be at greater risk for obesity-related health conditions than parents of healthy weight children by 5–6 percentage points. Having a family history of a chronic disease, higher quality of care, and older parent age were also significant predictors of estimating higher risk probabilities. Conclusions Despite evidence that parents of overweight children may not perceive these children as being overweight, parents unexpectedly estimate greater future risk of weight-related health conditions for these children. Focusing communication about weight on screening for and reducing the risk of weight-related diseases may prove useful in engaging parents and children in weight management PMID:26875508

Quantum-correlation breaking channels, quantum conditional probability and Perron-Frobenius theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chruściński, Dariusz

2013-03-01

Using the quantum analog of conditional probability and classical Bayes theorem we discuss some aspects of particular entanglement breaking channels: quantum-classical and classical-classical channels. Applying the quantum analog of Perron-Frobenius theorem we generalize the recent result of Korbicz et al. (2012) [8] on full and spectrum broadcasting from quantum-classical channels to arbitrary quantum channels.

When Is Statistical Evidence Superior to Anecdotal Evidence in Supporting Probability Claims? The Role of Argument Type

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoeken, Hans; Hustinx, Lettica

2009-01-01

Under certain conditions, statistical evidence is more persuasive than anecdotal evidence in supporting a claim about the probability that a certain event will occur. In three experiments, it is shown that the type of argument is an important condition in this respect. If the evidence is part of an argument by generalization, statistical evidence…

Transfer of Solutions to Conditional Probability Problems: Effects of Example Problem Format, Solution Format, and Problem Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chow, Alan F.; Van Haneghan, James P.

2016-01-01

This study reports the results of a study examining how easily students are able to transfer frequency solutions to conditional probability problems to novel situations. University students studied either a problem solved using the traditional Bayes formula format or using a natural frequency (tree diagram) format. In addition, the example problem…

High lifetime probability of screen-detected cervical abnormalities.

PubMed

Pankakoski, Maiju; Heinävaara, Sirpa; Sarkeala, Tytti; Anttila, Ahti

2017-12-01

Objective Regular screening and follow-up is an important key to cervical cancer prevention; however, screening inevitably detects mild or borderline abnormalities that would never progress to a more severe stage. We analysed the cumulative probability and recurrence of cervical abnormalities in the Finnish organized screening programme during a 22-year follow-up. Methods Screening histories were collected for 364,487 women born between 1950 and 1965. Data consisted of 1 207,017 routine screens and 88,143 follow-up screens between 1991 and 2012. Probabilities of cervical abnormalities by age were estimated using logistic regression and generalized estimating equations methodology. Results The probability of experiencing any abnormality at least once at ages 30-64 was 34.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 33.3-34.6%) . Probability was 5.4% (95% CI: 5.0-5.8%) for results warranting referral and 2.2% (95% CI: 2.0-2.4%) for results with histologically confirmed findings. Previous occurrences were associated with an increased risk of detecting new ones, specifically in older women. Conclusion A considerable proportion of women experience at least one abnormal screening result during their lifetime, and yet very few eventually develop an actual precancerous lesion. Re-evaluation of diagnostic criteria concerning mild abnormalities might improve the balance of harms and benefits of screening. Special monitoring of women with recurrent abnormalities especially at older ages may also be needed.

Interpreting SF-12 mental component score: an investigation of its convergent validity with CESD-10.

PubMed

Yu, Doris S F; Yan, Elsie C W; Chow, Choi Kai

2015-09-01

To examine the convergent validity of Mental Component Scale of the Short-Form 12 (SF-12 MCS) with the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CESD-10). The CESD-10 is a screening tool for probably clinically significant depression in the Chinese population. Data were obtained from a household survey carried out in Hong Kong. A two-stage stratified sampling method successfully interviewed 1795 adult subjects from 1239 households. Data on SF-12 MCS and the CESD-10 were extracted. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were performed to examine the convergent validity of SF-12 MCS against the CESD-10 threshold for probably clinically significant depression for the younger to middle-aged, late middle-aged and older population cohorts. ROC analysis indicated the excellent convergent validity of SF-12 MCS with the CESD-10 threshold for identifying probably clinically significant depression, with the area under curve ranged from 0.81 to 0.85. The optimal cutoff scores for depression among the younger to middle age group, late middle age group and older age group were 48.1, 50.2 and 50.2, respectively, with sensitivities ranged from 77 to 83 % and specificities ranged from 73 to 78 %. Bootstrapping estimates of the mean difference indicated no significant difference in the optimal cutoff scores between these age cohorts. SF-12 is a widely adopted measure to capture the health profile of Chinese population. The study findings indicated the satisfactory performance of the SF-12 MCS in identifying probably clinical depression. Future study is warrant to examine the diagnostic validity of the SF-12 MCS by using gold standard to assess clinical depression.

Epidemiology of multiple chronic conditions: an international perspective.

PubMed

Schellevis, François G

2013-01-01

The epidemiology of multimorbidity, or multiple chronic conditions (MCCs), is one of the research priority areas of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) by its Strategic Framework on MCCs. A conceptual model addressing methodological issues leading to a valid measurement of the prevalence rates of MCCs has been developed and applied in descriptive epidemiological studies. Comparing these results with those from prevalence studies performed earlier and in other countries is hampered by methodological limitations. Therefore, this paper aims to put the size and patterns of MCCs in the USA, as established within the HHS Strategic Framework on MCCs, in perspective of the findings on the prevalence of MCCs in other countries. General common trends can be observed: increasing prevalence rates with increasing age, and multimorbidity being the rule rather than the exception at old age. Most frequent combinations of chronic diseases include the most frequently occurring single chronic diseases. New descriptive epidemiological studies will probably not provide new results; therefore, future descriptive studies should focus on the prevalence rates of MCCs in subpopulations, statistical clustering of chronic conditions, and the development of the prevalence rates of MCCs over time. The finding of common trends also indicates the necessary transition to a next phase of MCC research, addressing the quality of care of patients with MCCs from an organizational perspective and with respect to the content of care. Journal of Comorbidity 2013;3:36-40.

Greenhouse-icehouse transition in the Late Ordovician marks a step change in extinction regime in the marine plankton.

PubMed

Crampton, James S; Cooper, Roger A; Sadler, Peter M; Foote, Michael

2016-02-09

Two distinct regimes of extinction dynamic are present in the major marine zooplankton group, the graptolites, during the Ordovician and Silurian periods (486-418 Ma). In conditions of "background" extinction, which dominated in the Ordovician, taxonomic evolutionary rates were relatively low and the probability of extinction was highest among newly evolved species ("background extinction mode"). A sharp change in extinction regime in the Late Ordovician marked the onset of repeated severe spikes in the extinction rate curve; evolutionary turnover increased greatly in the Silurian, and the extinction mode changed to include extinction that was independent of species age ("high-extinction mode"). This change coincides with a change in global climate, from greenhouse to icehouse conditions. During the most extreme episode of extinction, the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction, old species were selectively removed ("mass extinction mode"). Our analysis indicates that selective regimes in the Paleozoic ocean plankton switched rapidly (generally in <0.5 My) from one mode to another in response to environmental change, even when restoration of the full ecosystem was much slower (several million years). The patterns observed are not a simple consequence of geographic range effects or of taxonomic changes from Ordovician to Silurian. Our results suggest that the dominant primary controls on extinction throughout the lifespan of this clade were abiotic (environmental), probably mediated by the microphytoplankton.

Greenhouse−icehouse transition in the Late Ordovician marks a step change in extinction regime in the marine plankton

PubMed Central

Crampton, James S.; Cooper, Roger A.; Sadler, Peter M.; Foote, Michael

2016-01-01

Two distinct regimes of extinction dynamic are present in the major marine zooplankton group, the graptolites, during the Ordovician and Silurian periods (486−418 Ma). In conditions of “background” extinction, which dominated in the Ordovician, taxonomic evolutionary rates were relatively low and the probability of extinction was highest among newly evolved species (“background extinction mode”). A sharp change in extinction regime in the Late Ordovician marked the onset of repeated severe spikes in the extinction rate curve; evolutionary turnover increased greatly in the Silurian, and the extinction mode changed to include extinction that was independent of species age (“high-extinction mode”). This change coincides with a change in global climate, from greenhouse to icehouse conditions. During the most extreme episode of extinction, the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction, old species were selectively removed (“mass extinction mode”). Our analysis indicates that selective regimes in the Paleozoic ocean plankton switched rapidly (generally in <0.5 My) from one mode to another in response to environmental change, even when restoration of the full ecosystem was much slower (several million years). The patterns observed are not a simple consequence of geographic range effects or of taxonomic changes from Ordovician to Silurian. Our results suggest that the dominant primary controls on extinction throughout the lifespan of this clade were abiotic (environmental), probably mediated by the microphytoplankton. PMID:26811471

Large quaternary landslides in the central appalachian valley and ridge province near Petersburg, West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Southworth, C. Scott

1988-01-01

Geological mapping and photointerpretation of side-looking airborne radar images and color-infrared aerial photographs reveal two large Quaternary landslides in the Valley and Ridge province of the central Appalachians near Petersburg, W. Va. The Elkhorn Mountain rock avalanche occurs on the thrust-faulted northwestern flank of the Elkhorn Mountain anticlinorium. A minimum of 7 ?? 106 m3 of quartzite colluvium was transported more than 3 km from a 91 m high escarpment of Silurian Tuscarora Quartzite. The extensively vegetated deposit may owe, in part, its transport and weathering to periglacial conditions during the Pleistocene. In contrast, the Gap Mountain rock block slide is a single allochthonous block that is 1.2 km long, 0.6 km wide, and at least 60 m thick. The 43 ?? 106 m3 block is composed of limestone of the Helderberg Group and the Oriskany Sanstone of Early Devonian age. Planar detachment probably occurred along a dissolution bedding plane near the Shriver Chert and the Oriskany Sandstone contact. Failure probably was initiated by downcutting of the South Branch Potomac River during the Pleistocene. Landslides of this magnitude suggest accelerated erosion during periglacial climates in the Pleistocene. The recognition of these large slope failures may provide evidence of paleoclimatic conditions and, thereby, increase our understanding of the geomorphologic development of the Valley and Ridge province. ?? 1988.

The role of serotonin in nonnormative risky choice: the effects of tryptophan supplements on the "reflection effect" in healthy adult volunteers.

PubMed

Murphy, Susannah E; Longhitano, Carlo; Ayres, Rachael E; Cowen, Philip J; Harmer, Catherine J; Rogers, Robert D

2009-09-01

Risky decision-making involves weighing good and bad outcomes against their probabilities in order to determine the relative values of candidate actions. Although human decision-making sometimes conforms to rational models of how this weighting is achieved, irrational (or nonnormative) patterns of risky choice, including shifts between risk-averse and risk-seeking choices involving equivalent-value gambles (the "reflection effect"), are frequently observed. In the present experiment, we investigated the role of serotonin in decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. Fifteen healthy adult volunteers received a treatment of 3 g per day of the serotonin precursor, tryptophan, in the form of dietary supplements over a 14-day period, whereas 15 age- and IQ-matched control volunteers received a matched placebo substance. At test, all participants completed a risky decision-making task involving a series of choices between two simultaneously presented gambles, differing in the magnitude of their possible gains, the magnitude of their possible losses, and the probabilities with which these outcomes were delivered. Tryptophan supplements were associated with alterations in the weighting of gains and small losses perhaps reflecting reduced loss-aversion, and a marked and significant diminution of the reflection effect. We conclude that serotonin activity plays a significant role in nonnormative risky decision-making under conditions of uncertainty.

Condition-dependent reproductive effort in frogs infected by a widespread pathogen

PubMed Central

Roznik, Elizabeth A.; Sapsford, Sarah J.; Pike, David A.; Schwarzkopf, Lin; Alford, Ross A.

2015-01-01

To minimize the negative effects of an infection on fitness, hosts can respond adaptively by altering their reproductive effort or by adjusting their timing of reproduction. We studied effects of the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis on the probability of calling in a stream-breeding rainforest frog (Litoria rheocola). In uninfected frogs, calling probability was relatively constant across seasons and body conditions, but in infected frogs, calling probability differed among seasons (lowest in winter, highest in summer) and was strongly and positively related to body condition. Infected frogs in poor condition were up to 40% less likely to call than uninfected frogs, whereas infected frogs in good condition were up to 30% more likely to call than uninfected frogs. Our results suggest that frogs employed a pre-existing, plastic, life-history strategy in response to infection, which may have complex evolutionary implications. If infected males in good condition reproduce at rates equal to or greater than those of uninfected males, selection on factors affecting disease susceptibility may be minimal. However, because reproductive effort in infected males is positively related to body condition, there may be selection on mechanisms that limit the negative effects of infections on hosts. PMID:26063847

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River drainage basin, southeast Minnesota, and the St. Louis River drainage basin, northeast Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Erik A.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Lorenz, David L.; Jacobsen, Katrin E.

2017-12-27

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River and St. Louis River drainage basins were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources, to illustrate relative and cumulative streamflow distributions. The Cannon River was selected to provide baseline data to assess the effects of potential surficial sand mining, and the St. Louis River was selected to determine the effects of ongoing Mesabi Iron Range mining. Each drainage basin (Cannon, St. Louis) was subdivided into nested drainage basins: the Cannon River was subdivided into 152 nested drainage basins, and the St. Louis River was subdivided into 353 nested drainage basins. For each smaller drainage basin, the estimated volumes of groundwater discharge (as base flow) and surface runoff flowing into all surface-water features were displayed under the following conditions: (1) extreme low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.95; (2) low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.90; (3) a median condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.50; and (4) a high-flow condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.02.Streamflow distribution maps were developed using flow-duration curve exceedance-probability quantiles in conjunction with Soil-Water-Balance model outputs; both the flow-duration curve and Soil-Water-Balance models were built upon previously published U.S. Geological Survey reports. The selected streamflow distribution maps provide a proactive water management tool for State cooperators by illustrating flow rates during a range of hydraulic conditions. Furthermore, after the nested drainage basins are highlighted in terms of surface-water flows, the streamflows can be evaluated in the context of meeting specific ecological flows under different flow regimes and potentially assist with decisions regarding groundwater and surface-water appropriations. Presented streamflow distribution maps are foundational work intended to support the development of additional streamflow distribution maps that include statistical constraints on the selected flow conditions.

Computer models of social processes: the case of migration.

PubMed

Beshers, J M

1967-06-01

The demographic model is a program for representing births, deaths, migration, and social mobility as social processes in a non-stationary stochastic process (Markovian). Transition probabilities for each age group are stored and then retrieved at the next appearance of that age cohort. In this way new transition probabilities can be calculated as a function of the old transition probabilities and of two successive distribution vectors.Transition probabilities can be calculated to represent effects of the whole age-by-state distribution at any given time period, too. Such effects as saturation or queuing may be represented by a market mechanism; for example, migration between metropolitan areas can be represented as depending upon job supplies and labor markets. Within metropolitan areas, migration can be represented as invasion and succession processes with tipping points (acceleration curves), and the market device has been extended to represent this phenomenon.Thus, the demographic model makes possible the representation of alternative classes of models of demographic processes. With each class of model one can deduce implied time series (varying parame-terswithin the class) and the output of the several classes can be compared to each other and to outside criteria, such as empirical time series.

Class dependency of fuzzy relational database using relational calculus and conditional probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deni Akbar, Mohammad; Mizoguchi, Yoshihiro; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

In this paper, we propose a design of fuzzy relational database to deal with a conditional probability relation using fuzzy relational calculus. In the previous, there are several researches about equivalence class in fuzzy database using similarity or approximate relation. It is an interesting topic to investigate the fuzzy dependency using equivalence classes. Our goal is to introduce a formulation of a fuzzy relational database model using the relational calculus on the category of fuzzy relations. We also introduce general formulas of the relational calculus for the notion of database operations such as ’projection’, ’selection’, ’injection’ and ’natural join’. Using the fuzzy relational calculus and conditional probabilities, we introduce notions of equivalence class, redundant, and dependency in the theory fuzzy relational database.

Ageing and COPD affect different domains of nutritional status: the ECCE study.

PubMed

Battaglia, S; Spatafora, M; Paglino, G; Pedone, C; Corsonello, A; Scichilone, N; Antonelli-Incalzi, R; Bellia, V

2011-06-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and ageing may contribute to malnutrition. We aimed to explore whether COPD and ageing determine malnutrition in different manners. 460 stable COPD outpatients (376 males and 84 females) from the Extrapulmonary Consequences of COPD in the Elderly (ECCE) study database were investigated (age 75.0±5.9 yrs; forced expiratory volume in 1 s 54.7±18.3% predicted). Nutritional status was evaluated using the Mini Nutritional Assessment® (MNA) questionnaire. From the MNA, three scores exploring the domains of the nutritional status were calculated: body composition, energy intake and body functionality scores. Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stages were negatively correlated with five MNA items exploring mobility, patient's perception of own nutrition and health status, and arm and calf circumferences (lowest Spearman's rho (rs)=-0.011; highest p=0.039). GOLD stages were independently correlated with body composition and body functionality scores (model r2=0.073). Age was negatively correlated with four MNA items exploring loss of appetite, fluid intake, mobility and autonomy in daily life (lowest rs=-0.013; highest p=0.030). Age was independently correlated with body functionality score (model r2=0.037). Severe COPD and ageing are independent and probably concurrent conditions leading to malnutrition. The MNA questionnaire allows a valuable insight into the complexity of components of nutritional status and may provide useful clues for treatment strategies.

Risk Indicators for Periodontitis in US Adults: NHANES 2009 to 2012.

PubMed

Eke, Paul I; Wei, Liang; Thornton-Evans, Gina O; Borrell, Luisa N; Borgnakke, Wenche S; Dye, Bruce; Genco, Robert J

2016-10-01

Through the use of optimal surveillance measures and standard case definitions, it is now possible to more accurately determine population-average risk profiles for severe (SP) and non-severe periodontitis (NSP) in adults (aged 30 years and older) in the United States. Data from the 2009 to 2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used, which, for the first time, used the "gold standard" full-mouth periodontitis surveillance protocol to classify severity of periodontitis following suggested Centers for Disease Control/American Academy of Periodontology case definitions. Probabilities of periodontitis by: 1) sociodemographics, 2) behavioral factors, and 3) comorbid conditions were assessed using prevalence ratios (PRs) estimated by predicted marginal probability from multivariable generalized logistic regression models. Analyses were further stratified by sex for each classification of periodontitis. Likelihood of total periodontitis (TP) increased with age for overall and NSP relative to non-periodontitis. Compared with non-Hispanic whites, TP was more likely in Hispanics (adjusted [a]PR = 1.38; 95% confidence interval 95% CI: 1.26 to 1.52) and non-Hispanic blacks (aPR = 1.35; 95% CI: 1.22 to 1.50), whereas SP was most likely in non-Hispanic blacks (aPR = 1.82; 95% CI: 1.44 to 2.31). There was at least a 50% greater likelihood of TP in current smokers compared with non-smokers. In males, likelihood of TP in adults aged 65 years and older was greater (aPR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.76 to 2.43) than adults aged 30 to 44 years. This probability was even greater in women (aPR = 3.15; 95% CI: 2.63 to 3.77). Likelihood of TP was higher in current smokers relative to non-smokers regardless of sex and periodontitis classification. TP was more likely in men with uncontrolled diabetes mellitus (DM) compared with adults without DM. Assessment of risk profiles for periodontitis in adults in the United States based on gold standard periodontal measures show important differences by severity of disease and sex. Cigarette smoking, specifically current smoking, remains an important modifiable risk for all levels of periodontitis severity. Higher likelihood of TP in older adults and in males with uncontrolled DM is noteworthy. These findings could improve identification of target populations for effective public health interventions to improve periodontal health of adults in the United States.

Evidence of Variscan and Alpine tectonics in the structural and thermochronological record of the central Serbo-Macedonian Massif (south-eastern Serbia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antić, Milorad D.; Kounov, Alexandre; Trivić, Branislav; Spikings, Richard; Wetzel, Andreas

2017-07-01

The Serbo-Macedonian Massif (SMM) represents a composite crystalline belt within the Eastern European Alpine orogen, outcropping from the Pannonian basin in the north to the Aegean Sea in the south. The central parts of this massif (south-eastern Serbia) consist of the medium- to high-grade Lower Complex and the low-grade Vlasina Unit. Outcrop- and micro-scale ductile structures in this area document three major stages of ductile deformation. The earliest stage D1 is related to isoclinal folding, commonly preserved as up to decimetre-scale quartz-feldspar rootless fold hinges. D2 is associated with general south-eastward tectonic transport and refolding of earlier structures into recumbent metre- to kilometre-scale tight to isoclinal folds. Stages D1 and D2 could not be temporally separated and probably took place in close sequence. The age of these two ductile deformation stages was constrained to the Variscan orogeny based on indirect geological evidence (i.e. ca. 408-ca. 328). During this period, the SMM was involved in a transpressional amalgamation of the western and eastern parts of the Galatian super-terrane and subsequent collision with Laurussia. Outcrop-scale evidence of the final stage D3 is limited to spaced and crenulation cleavage, which are probably related to formation of large-scale open upright folds as reported previously. 40Ar/39Ar thermochronology was applied on hornblende, muscovite, and biotite samples in order to constrain the age of tectonothermal events and activity along major shear zones. These 40Ar/39Ar data reveal three major cooling episodes affecting the central SMM. Cooling below greenschist facies conditions in the western part of the Vlasina Unit took place in a post-orogenic setting (extensional or transtensional) in the early Permian (284 ± 1 Ma). The age of activity along the top-to-the-west shear zone formed within the orthogneiss in the Božica area of the Vlasina Unit was constrained to Middle Triassic (246 ± 1 Ma). This age coincides with widespread extension related to the opening of the Mesozoic Tethys. The greenschist facies retrogression in the Lower Complex probably occurred in the Early Jurassic (195 ± 1 Ma), and it was related to the thermal processes in the overriding plate above the subducting slab of the Mesozoic Tethys Ocean.

Methods, apparatus and system for notification of predictable memory failure

DOEpatents

Cher, Chen-Yong; Andrade Costa, Carlos H.; Park, Yoonho; Rosenburg, Bryan S.; Ryu, Kyung D.

2017-01-03

A method for providing notification of a predictable memory failure includes the steps of: obtaining information regarding at least one condition associated with a memory; calculating a memory failure probability as a function of the obtained information; calculating a failure probability threshold; and generating a signal when the memory failure probability exceeds the failure probability threshold, the signal being indicative of a predicted future memory failure.

Air abrasion experiments in U-Pb dating of zircon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goldich, S.S.; Fischer, L.B.

1986-01-01

Air abrasion of zircon grains can remove metamict material that has lost radiogenic Pb and zircon overgrowths that were added during younger events and thereby improve the precision of the age measurements and permit closer estimates of the original age. Age discordance that resulted from a single disturbance of the U-Pb isotopic decay systems, as had been demonstrated by T.E. Krogh, can be considerably reduced, and, under favorable conditions, the ages brought into concordancy. Two or more events complicate the U-Pb systematics, but a series of abrasion experiments can be helpful in deciphering the geologic history and in arriving at a useful interpretation of the probable times of origin and disturbances. In east-central Minnesota, U.S.A., Penokean tonalite gneiss is dated at 1869 ?? 5 Ma, and sheared granite gneiss is shown to have been a high-level granite intrusion at 1982 ?? 5 Ma in the McGrath Gneiss precursor. Tonalite gneiss and a mafic granodiorite in the Rainy Lake area, Ontario, Canada, are dated at 2736 ?? 16 and 2682 ?? 4 Ma, respectively. The tonalitic phase of the Morton Gneiss, southwestern Minnesota, is dated at 3662 ?? 42 Ma. ?? 1986.

Congenital Dislocation of the Hip

PubMed Central

Specht, Elmer E.

1976-01-01

Congenital dislocation or subluxation of the hip (congenital acetabular dysplasia) is a complete or partial displacement of the femoral head out of the acetabulum. The physical signs essential for diagnosis are age related. In newborns the tests for instability are the most sensitive. After the neonatal period, and until the age of walking, tightness of the adductor muscles is the most reliable sign. Early diagnosis is vital for successful treatment of this partially genetically determined condition. Various therapeutic measures, ranging from abduction splinting to open reduction and osteotomy, may be required. Following diagnosis in the first month of life, the average treatment time in one recent series was only 2.3 months from initiation of therapy to attainment of a normal hip. When the diagnosis was not made until 3 to 6 months of age, ten months of treatment was required to achieve the same outcome. When the diagnosis is not made, or the treatment is not begun until after the age of 6, a normal hip will probably not develop in any patient. ImagesFigure 1.Figure 2.Figure 3.Figure 4.Figure 5.Figure 6.Figure 7.Figure 8.Figure 9. PMID:1251603

14 CFR 25.801 - Ditching.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., under reasonably probable water conditions, the flotation time and trim of the airplane will allow the... provision is shown by buoyancy and trim computations, appropriate allowances must be made for probable...

Short-term capture of the Earth-Moon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Yi; de Ruiter, Anton

2018-06-01

In this paper, the short-term capture (STC) of an asteroid in the Earth-Moon system is proposed and investigated. First, the space condition of STC is analysed and five subsets of the feasible region are defined and discussed. Then, the time condition of STC is studied by parameter scanning in the Sun-Earth-Moon-asteroid restricted four-body problem. Numerical results indicate that there is a clear association between the distributions of the time probability of STC and the five subsets. Next, the influence of the Jacobi constant on STC is examined using the space and time probabilities of STC. Combining the space and time probabilities of STC, we propose a STC index to evaluate the probability of STC comprehensively. Finally, three potential STC asteroids are found and analysed.

Data Mining of Historical Human Data to Assess the Risk of Injury due to Dynamic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wells, Jesica; Somers, Jeffrey T.; Newby, N.; Gernhardt, Michael

2014-01-01

The NASA Occupant Protection Group is charged with ensuring crewmembers are protected during all dynamic phases of spaceflight. Previous work with outside experts has led to the development of a definition of acceptable risk (DAR) for space capsule vehicles. The DAR defines allowable probability rates for various categories of injuries. An important question is how to validate these probabilities for a given vehicle. One approach is to impact test human volunteers under projected nominal landing loads. The main drawback is the large number of subject tests required to attain a reasonable level of confidence that the injury probability rates would meet those outlined in the DAR. An alternative is to mine existing databases containing human responses to impact. Testing an anthropomorphic test device (ATD) at the same human-exposure levels could yield a range of ATD responses that would meet DAR. As one aspect of future vehicle validation, the ATD could be tested in the vehicle's seat and suit configuration at nominal landing loads and compared with the ATD responses supported by the human data set. This approach could reduce the number of human-volunteer tests NASA would need to conduct to validate that a vehicle meets occupant protection standards. METHODS: The U.S. Air Force has recorded hundreds of human responses to frontal, lateral, and spinal impacts at many acceleration levels and pulse durations. All of this data are stored on the Collaborative Biomechanics Data Network (CBDN), which is maintained by the Wright Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB). The test device for human occupant restraint (THOR) ATD was impact tested on WPAFB's horizontal impulse accelerator (HIA) matching human-volunteer exposures on the HIA to 5 frontal and 3 spinal loading conditions. No human injuries occurred as a result of these impact conditions. Peak THOR response variables for neck axial tension and compression, and thoracic-spine axial compression were collected. Maximal chest deflection was determined from motion capture video of the impact test. HIC- 15 and BRIC were calculated from head acceleration responses. Given the number of human subjects for each test condition a confidence interval of injury probability will be obtained. RESULTS: Results will be discussed in terms of injury-risk probability estimates based on the human data set evaluated. Also, gaps in the data set will be identified. These gaps could be one of two types. One is areas where additional THOR testing would increase the comparable human data set, thereby improving confidence in the injury probability rate. The other is where additional human testing would assist in obtaining information on other acceleration levels or directions. DISCUSSION: The historical human data showed validity of the THOR ATD for supplemental testing. The historical human data are limited in scope, however. Further data are needed to characterize the effects of sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight on risk of injury

High reticulocyte count is an independent risk factor for cerebrovascular disease in children with sickle cell anemia.

PubMed

Silva, Célia Maria; Giovani, Poliana; Viana, Marcos Borato

2011-01-01

Transcranial Doppler ultrasonography (TCD) is an important way of detecting risk of ischemic stroke in children with sickle cell anemia. A random sample of 262 FS-hemoglobin children from a newborn screening inception cohort in Brazil (1998-2005) was followed up to May 2009. Pulsed TCD followed STOP protocol. Children with mean blood flow velocity < 170 cm/sec in cerebral arteries were classified as low risk; between 170 and 184, low conditional risk; between 185 and 199, high conditional risk; and ≥ 200, high risk. Median age, 6.2 years (2-11.2 years); 147 female; 13 children (5%) had ischemic stroke prior to TCD; 186/249 (74.7%) were classified as low risk; 19 (7.6%) as low conditional; 7 (2.8%) as high conditional; and 8 (3.2%) as high risk; inadequate tests, 11.6%. The probability of ischemic stroke at 10 years was 8.3% (SEM 2.3%); of stroke or high-risk TCD 15.6% (3.5%). Children with stroke or altered TCD (conditional and high risk) were compared to children with normal examinations. They were younger (P = 0.03), with lower hemoglobin (P = 0.003), higher leukocytosis (P = 0.015), and higher reticulocytosis (P < 0.001). Episodes per year of acute chest syndrome were also higher in that group, but not significantly (P = 0.09). Reticulocytosis remained the only significant variable upon multivariate analysis (P = 0.004). Basilar and middle cerebral artery velocities were significantly correlated (R = 0.55; P < 0.001). Probability of stroke was similar to international reports; of belonging to high-risk group, lower. High-reticulocyte count was the most important factor associated with cerebrovascular disease. Basilar artery velocity > 130 cm/sec seems to be an indirect sign of an underlying cerebrovascular disease. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The relationship between violence in Northern Mexico and potentially avoidable hospitalizations in the USA-Mexico border region.

PubMed

Geissler, Kimberley; Stearns, Sally C; Becker, Charles; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Holmes, George M

2016-03-01

Substantial proportions of US residents in the USA-Mexico border region cross into Mexico for health care; increases in violence in northern Mexico may have affected this access. We quantified associations between violence in Mexico and decreases in access to care for border county residents. We also examined associations between border county residence and access. We used hospital inpatient data for Arizona, California and Texas (2005-10) to estimate associations between homicide rates and the probability of hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) conditions. Hospitalizations for ACS conditions were compared with homicide rates in Mexican municipalities matched by patient residence. A 1 SD increase in the homicide rate of the nearest Mexican municipality was associated with a 2.2 percentage point increase in the probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition for border county patients. Residence in a border county was associated with a 1.3 percentage point decrease in the probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition. Increased homicide rates in Mexico were associated with increased hospitalizations for ACS conditions in the USA, although residence in a border county was associated with decreased probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition. Expanding access in the border region may mitigate these effects by providing alternative sources of care. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Uranium-lead isotopic ages from the Sierra Nevada Batholith, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, James H.; Moore, James G.

1982-06-01

This study provides new information on the timing and distribution of Mesozoic magmatic events in the Sierra Nevada batholithic complex chiefly between 36° and 37°N. latitude. U-Pb ages have been determined for 133 zircon and 7 sphene separates from 82 samples of granitoid rocks. Granitoid rocks in this area range in age from 217 to 80 m.y. Triassic intrusions are restricted to the east side of the batholith; Jurassic plutons occur south of the Triassic plutons east of the Sierra Nevada, as isolated masses within the Cretaceous batholith, and in the western foothills of the range; Cretaceous plutons form a continuous belt along the axis of the batholith and occur as isolated masses east of the Sierra Nevada. No granitic intrusions were emplaced for 37 m.y. east of the Sierra Nevada following the end of Jurassic plutonism. However, following emplacement of the eastern Jurassic granitoids, regional extension produced a fracture system at least 350 km long into which the dominantly mafic, calc-alkalic Independence dike swarm was intruded 148 m.y. ago. The dike fractures probably represents a period of regional crustal extension caused by a redistribution of the regional stress pattern accompanying the Nevadan orogeny. Intrusion of Cretaceous granitic plutons began in large volume about 120 m.y. ago in the western Sierra Nevada and migrated steadily eastward for 40 m.y. at a rate of 2.7 mm/y. This slow and constant migration indicates remarkably uniform conditions of subduction with perhaps downward migration of parent magma generation or a slight flattening of the subduction zone. Such steady conditions could be necessary for the production of large batholithic complexes such as the Sierra Nevada. The abrupt termination of plutonism 80 m.y. ago may have resulted from an increased rate of convergence of the American and eastern Pacific plates and dramatic flattening of the subduction zone. U-Pb ages of the Giant Forest-alaskite sequence in Sequoia National Park are all in the range 99±3 m.y., indicating a relatively short period of emplacement and cooling for this nested group of plutons. U-Pb ages of a mafic inclusion and its host granodiorite indicate that both were derived from a common source or that the mafic inclusion was totally equilibrated with the granodioritic magma. Comparison of isotopic ages determined by different methods such as zircon U-Pb, sphene U-Pb, hornblende K-Ar, and biotite K-Ar suggests that zircon U-Pb ages generally approximate the emplacement age of a pluton. However, some plutons probably contain inherited or entrained old zircons, and the zircons of some samples are disturbed by younger thermal and metamorphic events. The ages reported here are consistent with U-Pb age determinations previously made on granitic rocks to the north [Stern et al., 1981], The age distribution of granitic belts determined here is in general agreement with those established by K-Ar dating [Evernden and Kistler, 1970] but does not differentiate the five epochs of plutonism determined in their study.

Uranium-lead isotopic ages from the Sierra Nevada Batholith, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, J.

1982-01-01

This study provides new information on the timing and distribution of Mesozoic magmatic events in the Sierra Nevada batholithic complex chiefly between 36° and 37°N. latitude. U-Pb ages have been determined for 133 zircon and 7 sphene separates from 82 samples of granitoid rocks. Granitoid rocks in this area range in age from 217 to 80 m.y. Triassic intrusions are restricted to the east side of the batholith; Jurassic plutons occur south of the Triassic plutons east of the Sierra Nevada, as isolated masses within the Cretaceous batholith, and in the western foothills of the range; Cretaceous plutons form a continuous belt along the axis of the batholith and occur as isolated masses east of the Sierra Nevada. No granitic intrusions were emplaced for 37 m.y. east of the Sierra Nevada following the end of Jurassic plutonism. However, following emplacement of the eastern Jurassic granitoids, regional extension produced a fracture system at least 350 km long into which the dominantly mafic, calc-alkalic Independence dike swarm was intruded 148 m.y. ago. The dike fractures probably represents a period of regional crustal extension caused by a redistribution of the regional stress pattern accompanying the Nevadan orogeny. Intrusion of Cretaceous granitic plutons began in large volume about 120 m.y. ago in the western Sierra Nevada and migrated steadily eastward for 40 m.y. at a rate of 2.7 mm/y. This slow and constant migration indicates remarkably uniform conditions of subduction with perhaps downward migration of parent magma generation or a slight flattening of the subduction zone. Such steady conditions could be necessary for the production of large batholithic complexes such as the Sierra Nevada. The abrupt termination of plutonism 80 m.y. ago may have resulted from an increased rate of convergence of the American and eastern Pacific plates and dramatic flattening of the subduction zone. U-Pb ages of the Giant Forest-alaskite sequence in Sequoia National Park are all in the range 99±3 m.y., indicating a relatively short period of emplacement and cooling for this nested group of plutons. U-Pb ages of a mafic inclusion and its host granodiorite indicate that both were derived from a common source or that the mafic inclusion was totally equilibrated with the granodioritic magma. Comparison of isotopic ages determined by different methods such as zircon U-Pb, sphene U-Pb, hornblende K-Ar, and biotite K-Ar suggests that zircon U-Pb ages generally approximate the emplacement age of a pluton. However, some plutons probably contain inherited or entrained old zircons, and the zircons of some samples are disturbed by younger thermal and metamorphic events. The ages reported here are consistent with U-Pb age determinations previously made on granitic rocks to the north [Stern et al., 1981], The age distribution of granitic belts determined here is in general agreement with those established by K-Ar dating [Evernden and Kistler, 1970] but does not differentiate the five epochs of plutonism determined in their study.

The Influence of Vocabulary Size, Phonotactic Probability, and Wordlikeness on Nonword Repetitions of Children with and without Specific Language Impairment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Munson, Benjamin; Kurtz, Beth A.; Windsor, Jennifer

2005-01-01

Research has shown that children repeat high-probability phoneme sequences more accurately than low-probability ones. This effect attenuates with age, and its decrease is predicted by developmental changes in the size of the lexicon (J. Edwards, M. E. Beckman, & B. Munson, 2004; B. Munson, 2001; B. Munson, J. Edwards, & M. Beckman, 2005). This…

The Influence of Part-Word Phonotactic Probability/Neighborhood Density on Word Learning by Preschool Children Varying in Expressive Vocabulary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Storkel, Holly L.; Hoover, Jill R.

2011-01-01

The goal of this study was to examine the influence of part-word phonotactic probability/neighborhood density on word learning by preschool children with normal vocabularies that varied in size. Ninety-eight children (age 2 ; 11-6 ; 0) were taught consonant-vowel-consonant (CVC) nonwords orthogonally varying in the probability/density of the CV…

Survival analysis of cancer risk reduction strategies for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.

PubMed

Kurian, Allison W; Sigal, Bronislava M; Plevritis, Sylvia K

2010-01-10

Women with BRCA1/2 mutations inherit high risks of breast and ovarian cancer; options to reduce cancer mortality include prophylactic surgery or breast screening, but their efficacy has never been empirically compared. We used decision analysis to simulate risk-reducing strategies in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and to compare resulting survival probability and causes of death. We developed a Monte Carlo model of breast screening with annual mammography plus magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) from ages 25 to 69 years, prophylactic mastectomy (PM) at various ages, and/or prophylactic oophorectomy (PO) at ages 40 or 50 years in 25-year-old BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. With no intervention, survival probability by age 70 is 53% for BRCA1 and 71% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. The most effective single intervention for BRCA1 mutation carriers is PO at age 40, yielding a 15% absolute survival gain; for BRCA2 mutation carriers, the most effective single intervention is PM, yielding a 7% survival gain if performed at age 40 years. The combination of PM and PO at age 40 improves survival more than any single intervention, yielding 24% survival gain for BRCA1 and 11% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. PM at age 25 instead of age 40 offers minimal incremental benefit (1% to 2%); substituting screening for PM yields a similarly minimal decrement in survival (2% to 3%). Although PM at age 25 plus PO at age 40 years maximizes survival probability, substituting mammography plus MRI screening for PM seems to offer comparable survival. These results may guide women with BRCA1/2 mutations in their choices between prophylactic surgery and breast screening.

Naive Probability: Model-Based Estimates of Unique Events.

PubMed

Khemlani, Sangeet S; Lotstein, Max; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

2015-08-01

We describe a dual-process theory of how individuals estimate the probabilities of unique events, such as Hillary Clinton becoming U.S. President. It postulates that uncertainty is a guide to improbability. In its computer implementation, an intuitive system 1 simulates evidence in mental models and forms analog non-numerical representations of the magnitude of degrees of belief. This system has minimal computational power and combines evidence using a small repertoire of primitive operations. It resolves the uncertainty of divergent evidence for single events, for conjunctions of events, and for inclusive disjunctions of events, by taking a primitive average of non-numerical probabilities. It computes conditional probabilities in a tractable way, treating the given event as evidence that may be relevant to the probability of the dependent event. A deliberative system 2 maps the resulting representations into numerical probabilities. With access to working memory, it carries out arithmetical operations in combining numerical estimates. Experiments corroborated the theory's predictions. Participants concurred in estimates of real possibilities. They violated the complete joint probability distribution in the predicted ways, when they made estimates about conjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A and B), disjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A or B or both), and conditional probabilities P(A), P(B), P(B|A). They were faster to estimate the probabilities of compound propositions when they had already estimated the probabilities of each of their components. We discuss the implications of these results for theories of probabilistic reasoning. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.