Modeling highway travel time distribution with conditional probability models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes; Chin, Shih-Miao; Hwang, Ho-Ling

ABSTRACT Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Freight Management and Operations, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has developed performance measures through the Freight Performance Measures (FPM) initiative. Under this program, travel speed information is derived from data collected using wireless based global positioning systems. These telemetric data systems are subscribed and used by trucking industry as an operations management tool. More than one telemetric operator submits their data dumps to ATRI on a regular basis. Each data transmission contains truck location, its travel time, and a clock time/date stamp. Data from the FPM program providesmore » a unique opportunity for studying the upstream-downstream speed distributions at different locations, as well as different time of the day and day of the week. This research is focused on the stochastic nature of successive link travel speed data on the continental United States Interstates network. Specifically, a method to estimate route probability distributions of travel time is proposed. This method uses the concepts of convolution of probability distributions and bivariate, link-to-link, conditional probability to estimate the expected distributions for the route travel time. Major contribution of this study is the consideration of speed correlation between upstream and downstream contiguous Interstate segments through conditional probability. The established conditional probability distributions, between successive segments, can be used to provide travel time reliability measures. This study also suggests an adaptive method for calculating and updating route travel time distribution as new data or information is added. This methodology can be useful to estimate performance measures as required by the recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP 21).« less

Bivariate normal, conditional and rectangular probabilities: A computer program with applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swaroop, R.; Brownlow, J. D.; Ashwworth, G. R.; Winter, W. R.

1980-01-01

Some results for the bivariate normal distribution analysis are presented. Computer programs for conditional normal probabilities, marginal probabilities, as well as joint probabilities for rectangular regions are given: routines for computing fractile points and distribution functions are also presented. Some examples from a closed circuit television experiment are included.

Decomposition of conditional probability for high-order symbolic Markov chains.

PubMed

Melnik, S S; Usatenko, O V

2017-07-01

The main goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate on a decomposition procedure for the conditional probability function of sequences considered to be high-order Markov chains. We represent the conditional probability function as the sum of multilinear memory function monomials of different orders (from zero up to the chain order). This allows us to introduce a family of Markov chain models and to construct artificial sequences via a method of successive iterations, taking into account at each step increasingly high correlations among random elements. At weak correlations, the memory functions are uniquely expressed in terms of the high-order symbolic correlation functions. The proposed method fills the gap between two approaches, namely the likelihood estimation and the additive Markov chains. The obtained results may have applications for sequential approximation of artificial neural network training.

Decomposition of conditional probability for high-order symbolic Markov chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melnik, S. S.; Usatenko, O. V.

2017-07-01

The main goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate on a decomposition procedure for the conditional probability function of sequences considered to be high-order Markov chains. We represent the conditional probability function as the sum of multilinear memory function monomials of different orders (from zero up to the chain order). This allows us to introduce a family of Markov chain models and to construct artificial sequences via a method of successive iterations, taking into account at each step increasingly high correlations among random elements. At weak correlations, the memory functions are uniquely expressed in terms of the high-order symbolic correlation functions. The proposed method fills the gap between two approaches, namely the likelihood estimation and the additive Markov chains. The obtained results may have applications for sequential approximation of artificial neural network training.

Dental age estimation: the role of probability estimates at the 10 year threshold.

PubMed

Lucas, Victoria S; McDonald, Fraser; Neil, Monica; Roberts, Graham

2014-08-01

The use of probability at the 18 year threshold has simplified the reporting of dental age estimates for emerging adults. The availability of simple to use widely available software has enabled the development of the probability threshold for individual teeth in growing children. Tooth development stage data from a previous study at the 10 year threshold were reused to estimate the probability of developing teeth being above or below the 10 year thresh-hold using the NORMDIST Function in Microsoft Excel. The probabilities within an individual subject are averaged to give a single probability that a subject is above or below 10 years old. To test the validity of this approach dental panoramic radiographs of 50 female and 50 male children within 2 years of the chronological age were assessed with the chronological age masked. Once the whole validation set of 100 radiographs had been assessed the masking was removed and the chronological age and dental age compared. The dental age was compared with chronological age to determine whether the dental age correctly or incorrectly identified a validation subject as above or below the 10 year threshold. The probability estimates correctly identified children as above or below on 94% of occasions. Only 2% of the validation group with a chronological age of less than 10 years were assigned to the over 10 year group. This study indicates the very high accuracy of assignment at the 10 year threshold. Further work at other legally important age thresholds is needed to explore the value of this approach to the technique of age estimation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biasi, G.P.; Weldon, R.J.; Fumal, T.E.; Seitz, G.G.

2002-01-01

We introduce a quantitative approach to paleoearthquake dating and apply it to paleoseismic data from the Wrightwood and Pallett Creek sites on the southern San Andreas fault. We illustrate how stratigraphic ordering, sedimentological, and historical data can be used quantitatively in the process of estimating earthquake ages. Calibrated radiocarbon age distributions are used directly from layer dating through recurrence intervals and recurrence probability estimation. The method does not eliminate subjective judgements in event dating, but it does provide a means of systematically and objectively approaching the dating process. Date distributions for the most recent 14 events at Wrightwood are based on sample and contextual evidence in Fumal et al. (2002) and site context and slip history in Weldon et al. (2002). Pallett Creek event and dating descriptions are from published sources. For the five most recent events at Wrightwood, our results are consistent with previously published estimates, with generally comparable or narrower uncertainties. For Pallett Creek, our earthquake date estimates generally overlap with previous results but typically have broader uncertainties. Some event date estimates are very sensitive to details of data interpretation. The historical earthquake in 1857 ruptured the ground at both sites but is not constrained by radiocarbon data. Radiocarbon ages, peat accumulation rates, and historical constraints at Pallett Creek for event X yield a date estimate in the earliest 1800s and preclude a date in the late 1600s. This event is almost certainly the historical 1812 earthquake, as previously concluded by Sieh et al. (1989). This earthquake also produced ground deformation at Wrightwood. All events at Pallett Creek, except for event T, about A.D. 1360, and possibly event I, about A.D. 960, have corresponding events at Wrightwood with some overlap in age ranges. Event T falls during a period of low sedimentation at Wrightwood when conditions

Experiencing El Niño conditions during early life reduces recruiting probabilities but not adult survival.

PubMed

Ancona, Sergio; Zúñiga-Vega, J Jaime; Rodríguez, Cristina; Drummond, Hugh

2018-01-01

In wild long-lived animals, analysis of impacts of stressful natal conditions on adult performance has rarely embraced the entire age span, and the possibility that costs are expressed late in life has seldom been examined. Using 26 years of data from 8541 fledglings and 1310 adults of the blue-footed booby ( Sula nebouxii ), a marine bird that can live up to 23 years, we tested whether experiencing the warm waters and food scarcity associated with El Niño in the natal year reduces recruitment or survival over the adult lifetime. Warm water in the natal year reduced the probability of recruiting; each additional degree (°C) of water temperature meant a reduction of roughly 50% in fledglings' probability of returning to the natal colony as breeders. Warm water in the current year impacted adult survival, with greater effect at the oldest ages than during early adulthood. However, warm water in the natal year did not affect survival at any age over the adult lifespan. A previous study showed that early recruitment and widely spaced breeding allow boobies that experience warm waters in the natal year to achieve normal fledgling production over the first 10 years; our results now show that this reproductive effort incurs no survival penalty, not even late in life. This pattern is additional evidence of buffering against stressful natal conditions via life-history adjustments.

Experiencing El Niño conditions during early life reduces recruiting probabilities but not adult survival

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Cristina; Drummond, Hugh

2018-01-01

In wild long-lived animals, analysis of impacts of stressful natal conditions on adult performance has rarely embraced the entire age span, and the possibility that costs are expressed late in life has seldom been examined. Using 26 years of data from 8541 fledglings and 1310 adults of the blue-footed booby (Sula nebouxii), a marine bird that can live up to 23 years, we tested whether experiencing the warm waters and food scarcity associated with El Niño in the natal year reduces recruitment or survival over the adult lifetime. Warm water in the natal year reduced the probability of recruiting; each additional degree (°C) of water temperature meant a reduction of roughly 50% in fledglings' probability of returning to the natal colony as breeders. Warm water in the current year impacted adult survival, with greater effect at the oldest ages than during early adulthood. However, warm water in the natal year did not affect survival at any age over the adult lifespan. A previous study showed that early recruitment and widely spaced breeding allow boobies that experience warm waters in the natal year to achieve normal fledgling production over the first 10 years; our results now show that this reproductive effort incurs no survival penalty, not even late in life. This pattern is additional evidence of buffering against stressful natal conditions via life-history adjustments. PMID:29410788

Prediction of Conditional Probability of Survival After Surgery for Gastric Cancer: A Study Based on Eastern and Western Large Data Sets.

PubMed

Zhong, Qing; Chen, Qi-Yue; Li, Ping; Xie, Jian-Wei; Wang, Jia-Bin; Lin, Jian-Xian; Lu, Jun; Cao, Long-Long; Lin, Mi; Tu, Ru-Hong; Zheng, Chao-Hui; Huang, Chang-Ming

2018-04-20

The dynamic prognosis of patients who have undergone curative surgery for gastric cancer has yet to be reported. Our objective was to devise an accurate tool for predicting the conditional probability of survival for these patients. We analyzed 11,551 gastric cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Two-thirds of the patients were selected randomly for the development set and one-third for the validation set. Two nomograms were constructed to predict the conditional probability of overall survival and the conditional probability of disease-specific survival, using conditional survival methods. We then applied these nomograms to the 4,001 patients in the database from Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, China, one of the most active Chinese institutes. The 5-year conditional probability of overall survival of the patients was 41.6% immediately after resection and increased to 52.8%, 68.2%, and 80.4% at 1, 2, and 3 years after gastrectomy. The 5-year conditional probability of disease-specific survival "increased" from 48.9% at the time of gastrectomy to 59.8%, 74.7%, and 85.5% for patients surviving 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Sex; race; age; depth of tumor invasion; lymph node metastasis; and tumor size, site, and grade were associated with overall survival and disease-specific survival (P <.05). Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results validation set, the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.77, 0.81, 0.82, and 0.82 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years after gastrectomy, respectively. Within the other validation set from the Fujian Medical University Union Hospital (n = 4,001), the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.76, 0.79, 0.77, and 0.77 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. The accuracy of the conditional probability of disease-specific survival model was also favorable. The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement

Conditional Probability Analysis: A Statistical Tool for Environmental Analysis.

EPA Science Inventory

The use and application of environmental conditional probability analysis (CPA) is relatively recent. The first presentation using CPA was made in 2002 at the New England Association of Environmental Biologists Annual Meeting in Newport. Rhode Island. CPA has been used since the...

An Inverse Problem for a Class of Conditional Probability Measure-Dependent Evolution Equations

PubMed Central

Mirzaev, Inom; Byrne, Erin C.; Bortz, David M.

2016-01-01

We investigate the inverse problem of identifying a conditional probability measure in measure-dependent evolution equations arising in size-structured population modeling. We formulate the inverse problem as a least squares problem for the probability measure estimation. Using the Prohorov metric framework, we prove existence and consistency of the least squares estimates and outline a discretization scheme for approximating a conditional probability measure. For this scheme, we prove general method stability. The work is motivated by Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models of flocculation for which the shape of the post-fragmentation conditional probability measure greatly impacts the solution dynamics. To illustrate our methodology, we apply the theory to a particular PDE model that arises in the study of population dynamics for flocculating bacterial aggregates in suspension, and provide numerical evidence for the utility of the approach. PMID:28316360

Study on conditional probability of surface rupture: effect of fault dip and width of seismogenic layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, N.

2017-12-01

The conditional probability of surface ruptures is affected by various factors, such as shallow material properties, process of earthquakes, ground motions and so on. Toda (2013) pointed out difference of the conditional probability of strike and reverse fault by considering the fault dip and width of seismogenic layer. This study evaluated conditional probability of surface rupture based on following procedures. Fault geometry was determined from the randomly generated magnitude based on The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2017) method. If the defined fault plane was not saturated in the assumed width of the seismogenic layer, the fault plane depth was randomly provided within the seismogenic layer. The logistic analysis was performed to two data sets: surface displacement calculated by dislocation methods (Wang et al., 2003) from the defined source fault, the depth of top of the defined source fault. The estimated conditional probability from surface displacement indicated higher probability of reverse faults than that of strike faults, and this result coincides to previous similar studies (i.e. Kagawa et al., 2004; Kataoka and Kusakabe, 2005). On the contrary, the probability estimated from the depth of the source fault indicated higher probability of thrust faults than that of strike and reverse faults, and this trend is similar to the conditional probability of PFDHA results (Youngs et al., 2003; Moss and Ross, 2011). The probability of combined simulated results of thrust and reverse also shows low probability. The worldwide compiled reverse fault data include low fault dip angle earthquake. On the other hand, in the case of Japanese reverse fault, there is possibility that the conditional probability of reverse faults with less low dip angle earthquake shows low probability and indicates similar probability of strike fault (i.e. Takao et al., 2013). In the future, numerical simulation by considering failure condition of surface by the source

Comparison of clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer and age-adjusted D-dimer interpretation to exclude venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Takach Lapner, Sarah; Julian, Jim A; Linkins, Lori-Ann; Bates, Shannon; Kearon, Clive

2017-10-05

Two new strategies for interpreting D-dimer results have been proposed: i) using a progressively higher D-dimer threshold with increasing age (age-adjusted strategy) and ii) using a D-dimer threshold in patients with low clinical probability that is twice the threshold used in patients with moderate clinical probability (clinical probability-adjusted strategy). Our objective was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of age-adjusted and clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer interpretation in patients with a low or moderate clinical probability of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We performed a retrospective analysis of clinical data and blood samples from two prospective studies. We compared the negative predictive value (NPV) for VTE, and the proportion of patients with a negative D-dimer result, using two D-dimer interpretation strategies: the age-adjusted strategy, which uses a progressively higher D-dimer threshold with increasing age over 50 years (age in years × 10 µg/L FEU); and the clinical probability-adjusted strategy which uses a D-dimer threshold of 1000 µg/L FEU in patients with low clinical probability and 500 µg/L FEU in patients with moderate clinical probability. A total of 1649 outpatients with low or moderate clinical probability for a first suspected deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism were included. The NPV of both the clinical probability-adjusted strategy (99.7 %) and the age-adjusted strategy (99.6 %) were similar. However, the proportion of patients with a negative result was greater with the clinical probability-adjusted strategy (56.1 % vs, 50.9 %; difference 5.2 %; 95 % CI 3.5 % to 6.8 %). These findings suggest that clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer interpretation is a better way of interpreting D-dimer results compared to age-adjusted interpretation.

Using dynamic geometry software for teaching conditional probability with area-proportional Venn diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radakovic, Nenad; McDougall, Douglas

2012-10-01

This classroom note illustrates how dynamic visualization can be used to teach conditional probability and Bayes' theorem. There are two features of the visualization that make it an ideal pedagogical tool in probability instruction. The first feature is the use of area-proportional Venn diagrams that, along with showing qualitative relationships, describe the quantitative relationship between two sets. The second feature is the slider and animation component of dynamic geometry software enabling students to observe how the change in the base rate of an event influences conditional probability. A hypothetical instructional sequence using a well-known breast cancer example is described.

The Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Adults' Word Learning in Noisy Conditions

PubMed Central

Storkel, Holly L.; Lee, Jaehoon; Cox, Casey

2016-01-01

Purpose Noisy conditions make auditory processing difficult. This study explores whether noisy conditions influence the effects of phonotactic probability (the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence) and neighborhood density (phonological similarity among words) on adults' word learning. Method Fifty-eight adults learned nonwords varying in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in either an unfavorable (0-dB signal-to-noise ratio [SNR]) or a favorable (+8-dB SNR) listening condition. Word learning was assessed using a picture naming task by scoring the proportion of phonemes named correctly. Results The unfavorable 0-dB SNR condition showed a significant interaction between phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in the absence of main effects. In particular, adults learned more words when phonotactic probability and neighborhood density were both low or both high. The +8-dB SNR condition did not show this interaction. These results are inconsistent with those from a prior adult word learning study conducted under quiet listening conditions that showed main effects of word characteristics. Conclusions As the listening condition worsens, adult word learning benefits from a convergence of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density. Clinical implications are discussed for potential populations who experience difficulty with auditory perception or processing, making them more vulnerable to noise. PMID:27788276

The Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Adults' Word Learning in Noisy Conditions.

PubMed

Han, Min Kyung; Storkel, Holly L; Lee, Jaehoon; Cox, Casey

2016-11-01

Noisy conditions make auditory processing difficult. This study explores whether noisy conditions influence the effects of phonotactic probability (the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence) and neighborhood density (phonological similarity among words) on adults' word learning. Fifty-eight adults learned nonwords varying in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in either an unfavorable (0-dB signal-to-noise ratio [SNR]) or a favorable (+8-dB SNR) listening condition. Word learning was assessed using a picture naming task by scoring the proportion of phonemes named correctly. The unfavorable 0-dB SNR condition showed a significant interaction between phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in the absence of main effects. In particular, adults learned more words when phonotactic probability and neighborhood density were both low or both high. The +8-dB SNR condition did not show this interaction. These results are inconsistent with those from a prior adult word learning study conducted under quiet listening conditions that showed main effects of word characteristics. As the listening condition worsens, adult word learning benefits from a convergence of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density. Clinical implications are discussed for potential populations who experience difficulty with auditory perception or processing, making them more vulnerable to noise.

Pedigrees, Prizes, and Prisoners: The Misuse of Conditional Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carlton, Matthew A.

2005-01-01

We present and discuss three examples of misapplication of the notion of conditional probability. In each example, we present the problem along with a published and/or well-known incorrect--but seemingly plausible--solution. We then give a careful treatment of the correct solution, in large part to show how careful application of basic probability…

Conditional, Time-Dependent Probabilities for Segmented Type-A Faults in the WGCEP UCERF 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; Gupta, Vipin

2008-01-01

This appendix presents elastic-rebound-theory (ERT) motivated time-dependent probabilities, conditioned on the date of last earthquake, for the segmented type-A fault models of the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). These probabilities are included as one option in the WGCEP?s Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2 (UCERF 2), with the other options being time-independent Poisson probabilities and an ?Empirical? model based on observed seismicity rate changes. A more general discussion of the pros and cons of all methods for computing time-dependent probabilities, as well as the justification of those chosen for UCERF 2, are given in the main body of this report (and the 'Empirical' model is also discussed in Appendix M). What this appendix addresses is the computation of conditional, time-dependent probabilities when both single- and multi-segment ruptures are included in the model. Computing conditional probabilities is relatively straightforward when a fault is assumed to obey strict segmentation in the sense that no multi-segment ruptures occur (e.g., WGCEP (1988, 1990) or see Field (2007) for a review of all previous WGCEPs; from here we assume basic familiarity with conditional probability calculations). However, and as we?ll see below, the calculation is not straightforward when multi-segment ruptures are included, in essence because we are attempting to apply a point-process model to a non point process. The next section gives a review and evaluation of the single- and multi-segment rupture probability-calculation methods used in the most recent statewide forecast for California (WGCEP UCERF 1; Petersen et al., 2007). We then present results for the methodology adopted here for UCERF 2. We finish with a discussion of issues and possible alternative approaches that could be explored and perhaps applied in the future. A fault-by-fault comparison of UCERF 2 probabilities with those of previous studies is given in the

The Dependence Structure of Conditional Probabilities in a Contingency Table

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joarder, Anwar H.; Al-Sabah, Walid S.

2002-01-01

Conditional probability and statistical independence can be better explained with contingency tables. In this note some special cases of 2 x 2 contingency tables are considered. In turn an interesting insight into statistical dependence as well as independence of events is obtained.

Probability distributions of continuous measurement results for conditioned quantum evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franquet, A.; Nazarov, Yuli V.

2017-02-01

We address the statistics of continuous weak linear measurement on a few-state quantum system that is subject to a conditioned quantum evolution. For a conditioned evolution, both the initial and final states of the system are fixed: the latter is achieved by the postselection in the end of the evolution. The statistics may drastically differ from the nonconditioned case, and the interference between initial and final states can be observed in the probability distributions of measurement outcomes as well as in the average values exceeding the conventional range of nonconditioned averages. We develop a proper formalism to compute the distributions of measurement outcomes, and evaluate and discuss the distributions in experimentally relevant setups. We demonstrate the manifestations of the interference between initial and final states in various regimes. We consider analytically simple examples of nontrivial probability distributions. We reveal peaks (or dips) at half-quantized values of the measurement outputs. We discuss in detail the case of zero overlap between initial and final states demonstrating anomalously big average outputs and sudden jump in time-integrated output. We present and discuss the numerical evaluation of the probability distribution aiming at extending the analytical results and describing a realistic experimental situation of a qubit in the regime of resonant fluorescence.

An Alternative Teaching Method of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of the Truth Table

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satake, Eiki; Vashlishan Murray, Amy

2015-01-01

This paper presents a comparison of three approaches to the teaching of probability to demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic can be used to teach the calculations of conditional probabilities. Students are typically introduced to the topic of conditional probabilities--especially the ones that involve Bayes' rule--with…

Bivariate categorical data analysis using normal linear conditional multinomial probability model.

PubMed

Sun, Bingrui; Sutradhar, Brajendra

2015-02-10

Bivariate multinomial data such as the left and right eyes retinopathy status data are analyzed either by using a joint bivariate probability model or by exploiting certain odds ratio-based association models. However, the joint bivariate probability model yields marginal probabilities, which are complicated functions of marginal and association parameters for both variables, and the odds ratio-based association model treats the odds ratios involved in the joint probabilities as 'working' parameters, which are consequently estimated through certain arbitrary 'working' regression models. Also, this later odds ratio-based model does not provide any easy interpretations of the correlations between two categorical variables. On the basis of pre-specified marginal probabilities, in this paper, we develop a bivariate normal type linear conditional multinomial probability model to understand the correlations between two categorical variables. The parameters involved in the model are consistently estimated using the optimal likelihood and generalized quasi-likelihood approaches. The proposed model and the inferences are illustrated through an intensive simulation study as well as an analysis of the well-known Wisconsin Diabetic Retinopathy status data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Age at menarche: the influence of environmental conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saar, E.; Shalev, C.; Dalal, I.; Sod-Moriah, U. A.

1988-03-01

Age at menarche was studied by the recollection method in two groups of Causasian Jewish high school girls, inhabitants of two towns in Israel, Safad and Elat. The two towns differ mainly in climatic conditions. The age at menarche was found to be significantly lower ( P<0.02) in the hot town of Elat than in the temperate town of Safad: 13.30±1.21 and 13.58±0.9 years, respectively (mean ±SD). A significant association was found between the age at menarche and the town in which the girls lived. Accordingly, in the hot town of Elat, the percentage of girls who had their first menstrual cycle by the age of 12 years and earlier, was more than double that of the girls in Safad (17.9% and 7.1%, respectively). It is concluded that the environmental temperature, with or without any possible interaction of humidity, is probably responsible for the tendency for an earlier onset of menarche in girls living in the hot town of Elat.

AGE-SPECIFIC PROBABILITY OF LIVE-BIRTH WITH OOCYTE CRYOPRESERVATION: AN INDIVIDUAL PATIENT DATA META-ANALYSIS

PubMed Central

CIL, AYLIN PELIN; BANG, HEEJUNG; OKTAY, KUTLUK

2013-01-01

Objective To estimate age-specific probabilities of live-birth with oocyte cryopreservation in non-donor (ND) egg cycles. Design Individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis. Setting Assisted reproduction centers. Patients Infertile patients undergoing ND mature oocyte cryopreservation. Interventions PubMed was searched for the clinical studies on oocyte cryopreservation from January 1996 through July 2011. Randomized and non-randomized studies that used ND frozen-thawed mature oocytes with pregnancy outcomes were included. Authors of eligible studies were contacted to obtain IPD. Main outcome measures Live-birth probabilities based on age, cryopreservation method, and the number of oocytes thawed, injected, or embryos transferred. Results Original data from 10 studies including 2265 cycles from 1805 patients were obtained. Live-birth success rates declined with age regardless of the freezing technique. Despite this age-induced compromise, live-births continued to occur as late as to the ages of 42 and 44 with slowly-frozen (SF) and vitrified (VF) oocytes, respectively. Estimated probabilities of live-birth for VF oocytes were higher than those for SF. Conclusions The live-birth probabilities we calculated would enable more accurate counseling and informed decision of infertile women who consider oocyte cryopreservation. Given the success probabilities, we suggest that policy-makers should consider oocyte freezing as an integral part of prevention and treatment of infertility. PMID:23706339

Compressive behavior of laminated neoprene bridge bearing pads under thermal aging condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, Xie; Zhang, Yannian; Shan, Chunhong

2017-10-01

The present study was conducted to obtain a better understanding of the variation rule of mechanical properties of laminated neoprene bridge bearing pads under thermal aging condition using compression tests. A total of 5 specimens were processed in a high-temperature chamber. After that, the specimens were tested subjected to axial load. The parameter mainly considered time of thermal aging processing for specimens. The results of compression tests show that the specimens after thermal aging processing are more probably brittle failure than the standard specimen. Moreover, the exposure of steel plate, cracks and other failure phenomena are more serious than the standard specimen. The compressive capacity, ultimate compressive strength, compressive elastic modulus of the laminated neoprene bridge bearing pads decreased dramatically with the increasing in the aging time of thermal aging processing. The attenuation trends of ultimate compressive strength, compressive elastic modulus of laminated neoprene bridge bearing pads under thermal aging condition accord with power function. The attenuation models are acquired by regressing data of experiment with the least square method. The attenuation models conform to reality well which shows that this model is applicable and has vast prospect in assessing the performance of laminated neoprene bridge bearing pads under thermal aging condition.

Using Dynamic Geometry Software for Teaching Conditional Probability with Area-Proportional Venn Diagrams

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radakovic, Nenad; McDougall, Douglas

2012-01-01

This classroom note illustrates how dynamic visualization can be used to teach conditional probability and Bayes' theorem. There are two features of the visualization that make it an ideal pedagogical tool in probability instruction. The first feature is the use of area-proportional Venn diagrams that, along with showing qualitative relationships,…

Class dependency of fuzzy relational database using relational calculus and conditional probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deni Akbar, Mohammad; Mizoguchi, Yoshihiro; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

In this paper, we propose a design of fuzzy relational database to deal with a conditional probability relation using fuzzy relational calculus. In the previous, there are several researches about equivalence class in fuzzy database using similarity or approximate relation. It is an interesting topic to investigate the fuzzy dependency using equivalence classes. Our goal is to introduce a formulation of a fuzzy relational database model using the relational calculus on the category of fuzzy relations. We also introduce general formulas of the relational calculus for the notion of database operations such as ’projection’, ’selection’, ’injection’ and ’natural join’. Using the fuzzy relational calculus and conditional probabilities, we introduce notions of equivalence class, redundant, and dependency in the theory fuzzy relational database.

Age-adjusted versus clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer to exclude pulmonary embolism.

PubMed

Takach Lapner, Sarah; Stevens, Scott M; Woller, Scott C; Snow, Gregory; Kearon, Clive

2018-05-05

A low D-dimer can exclude suspected pulmonary embolism (PE) in cases with low or intermediate clinical probability of disease. Yet D-dimer is nonspecific, so many cases without PE require imaging. D-dimer's specificity is improved by increasing the threshold for a positive test with age (age × 10 ng/mL; age-adjusted D-dimer; AADD) or clinical probability of PE (1000 ng/mL if low and 500 ng/mL if intermediate clinical probability; clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer; CPADD). It is unclear which approach is preferable. We report the sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value (NPV) of AADD compared to CPADD in suspected PE. A retrospective cohort of 3500 consecutive cases imaged for suspected PE at two U.S. emergency departments was assembled. We analyzed cases with low or intermediate clinical probability of PE (Revised Geneva Score) who had a D-dimer. The outcome was acute PE on imaging at presentation. Of the 3500 cases, 1745 were eligible. 37% were low, and 63% were intermediate clinical probability of PE. PE was present in 145 (8.3%) cases. Sensitivity of CPADD was 87.5% vs. 96.6% for AADD (difference 9.1%; 95% CI 4.3% to 14.0%). NPV of CPADD was 97.1% vs. 99.0% for AADD (difference 1.9%; 95% CI, 0.7% to 3.1%). Specificity of CPADD was 37.5% vs. 30.2% for AADD (difference -7.3%; 95% CI -9.4% to -5.1%). D-dimer was negative in 35.4% of cases using CPADD vs. 28.0% using AADD. CPADD modestly improved the specificity of D-dimer, but had a lower NPV than AADD. AADD appears preferable in this analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Conditional probability analysis between tinnitus and comorbidities in patients attending the National Rehabilitation Institute-LGII in the period 2012-2013].

PubMed

Gómez Toledo, Verónica; Gutiérrez Farfán, Ileana; Verduzco-Mendoza, Antonio; Arch-Tirado, Emilio

Tinnitus is defined as the conscious perception of a sensation of sound that occurs in the absence of an external stimulus. This audiological symptom affects 7% to 19% of the adult population. The aim of this study is to describe the associated comorbidities present in patients with tinnitus usingjoint and conditional probability analysis. Patients of both genders, diagnosed with unilateral or bilateral tinnitus, aged between 20 and 45 years, and had a full computerised medical record, were selected. Study groups were formed on the basis of the following clinical aspects: 1) audiological findings; 2) vestibular findings; 3) comorbidities such as, temporomandibular dysfunction, tubal dysfunction, otosclerosis and, 4) triggering factors of tinnitus noise exposure, respiratory tract infection, use of ototoxic and/or drugs. Of the patients with tinnitus, 27 (65%) reported hearing loss, 11 (26.19%) temporomandibular dysfunction, and 11 (26.19%) with vestibular disorders. When performing the joint probability analysis, it was found that the probability that a patient with tinnitus having hearing loss was 2742 0.65, and 2042 0.47 for bilateral type. The result for P (A ∩ B)=30%. Bayes' theorem P (AiB) = P(Ai∩B)P(B) was used, and various probabilities were calculated. Therefore, in patients with temporomandibulardysfunction and vestibular disorders, a posterior probability of P (Aі/B)=31.44% was calculated. Consideration should be given to the joint and conditional probability approach as tools for the study of different pathologies. Copyright © 2016 Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Facilitating normative judgments of conditional probability: frequency or nested sets?

PubMed

Yamagishi, Kimihiko

2003-01-01

Recent probability judgment research contrasts two opposing views. Some theorists have emphasized the role of frequency representations in facilitating probabilistic correctness; opponents have noted that visualizing the probabilistic structure of the task sufficiently facilitates normative reasoning. In the current experiment, the following conditional probability task, an isomorph of the "Problem of Three Prisoners" was tested. "A factory manufactures artificial gemstones. Each gemstone has a 1/3 chance of being blurred, a 1/3 chance of being cracked, and a 1/3 chance of being clear. An inspection machine removes all cracked gemstones, and retains all clear gemstones. However, the machine removes 1/2 of the blurred gemstones. What is the chance that a gemstone is blurred after the inspection?" A 2 x 2 design was administered. The first variable was the use of frequency instruction. The second manipulation was the use of a roulette-wheel diagram that illustrated a "nested-sets" relationship between the prior and the posterior probabilities. Results from two experiments showed that frequency alone had modest effects, while the nested-sets instruction achieved a superior facilitation of normative reasoning. The third experiment compared the roulette-wheel diagram to tree diagrams that also showed the nested-sets relationship. The roulette-wheel diagram outperformed the tree diagrams in facilitation of probabilistic reasoning. Implications for understanding the nature of intuitive probability judgments are discussed.

Stage line diagram: an age-conditional reference diagram for tracking development.

PubMed

van Buuren, Stef; Ooms, Jeroen C L

2009-05-15

This paper presents a method for calculating stage line diagrams, a novel type of reference diagram useful for tracking developmental processes over time. Potential fields of applications include: dentistry (tooth eruption), oncology (tumor grading, cancer staging), virology (HIV infection and disease staging), psychology (stages of cognitive development), human development (pubertal stages) and chronic diseases (stages of dementia). Transition probabilities between successive stages are modeled as smoothly varying functions of age. Age-conditional references are calculated from the modeled probabilities by the mid-P value. It is possible to eliminate the influence of age by calculating standard deviation scores (SDS). The method is applied to the empirical data to produce reference charts on secondary sexual maturation. The mean of the empirical SDS in the reference population is close to zero, whereas the variance depends on age. The stage line diagram provides quick insight into both status (in SDS) and tempo (in SDS/year) of development of an individual child. Other measures (e.g. height SDS, body mass index SDS) from the same child can be added to the chart. Diagrams for sexual maturation are available as a web application at http://vps.stefvanbuuren.nl/puberty. The stage line diagram expresses status and tempo of discrete changes on a continuous scale. Wider application of these measures scores opens up new analytic possibilities. (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risks and probabilities of breast cancer: short-term versus lifetime probabilities.

PubMed Central

Bryant, H E; Brasher, P M

1994-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To calculate age-specific short-term and lifetime probabilities of breast cancer among a cohort of Canadian women. DESIGN: Double decrement life table. SETTING: Alberta. SUBJECTS: Women with first invasive breast cancers registered with the Alberta Cancer Registry between 1985 and 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime probability of breast cancer from birth and for women at various ages; short-term (up to 10 years) probability of breast cancer for women at various ages. RESULTS: The lifetime probability of breast cancer is 10.17% at birth and peaks at 10.34% at age 25 years, after which it decreases owing to a decline in the number of years over which breast cancer risk will be experienced. However, the probability of manifesting breast cancer in the next year increases steadily from the age of 30 onward, reaching 0.36% at 85 years. The probability of manifesting the disease within the next 10 years peaks at 2.97% at age 70 and decreases thereafter, again owing to declining probabilities of surviving the interval. CONCLUSIONS: Given that the incidence of breast cancer among Albertan women during the study period was similar to the national average, we conclude that currently more than 1 in 10 women in Canada can expect to have breast cancer at some point during their life. However, risk varies considerably over a woman's lifetime, with most risk concentrated after age 49. On the basis of the shorter-term age-specific risks that we present, the clinician can put breast cancer risk into perspective for younger women and heighten awareness among women aged 50 years or more. PMID:8287343

Quantum-correlation breaking channels, quantum conditional probability and Perron-Frobenius theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chruściński, Dariusz

2013-03-01

Using the quantum analog of conditional probability and classical Bayes theorem we discuss some aspects of particular entanglement breaking channels: quantum-classical and classical-classical channels. Applying the quantum analog of Perron-Frobenius theorem we generalize the recent result of Korbicz et al. (2012) [8] on full and spectrum broadcasting from quantum-classical channels to arbitrary quantum channels.

Probabilities of good, marginal, and poor flying conditions for space shuttle ferry flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whiting, D. M.; Guttman, N. B.

1977-01-01

Empirical probabilities are provided for good, marginal, and poor flying weather for ferrying the Space Shuttle Orbiter from Edwards AFB, California, to Kennedy Space Center, Florida, and from Edwards AFB to Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama. Results are given by month for each overall route plus segments of each route. The criteria for defining a day as good, marginal, or poor and the method of computing the relative frequencies and conditional probabilities for monthly reference periods are described.

Individual quality and age but not environmental or social conditions modulate costs of reproduction in a capital breeder.

PubMed

Debeffe, Lucie; Poissant, Jocelyn; McLoughlin, Philip D

2017-08-01

Costs associated with reproduction are widely known to play a role in the evolution of reproductive tactics with consequences to population and eco-evolutionary dynamics. Evaluating these costs as they pertain to species in the wild remains an important goal of evolutionary ecology. Individual heterogeneity, including differences in individual quality (i.e., among-individual differences in traits associated with survival and reproduction) or state, and variation in environmental and social conditions can modulate the costs of reproduction; however, few studies have considered effects of these factors simultaneously. Taking advantage of a detailed, long-term dataset for a population of feral horses (Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada), we address the question of how intrinsic (quality, age), environmental (winter severity, location), and social conditions (group size, composition, sex ratio, density) influence the costs of reproduction on subsequent reproduction. Individual quality was measured using a multivariate analysis on a combination of four static and dynamic traits expected to depict heterogeneity in individual performance. Female quality and age interacted with reproductive status of the previous year to determine current reproductive effort, while no effect of social or environmental covariates was found. High-quality females showed higher probabilities of giving birth and weaning their foal regardless of their reproductive status the previous year, while those of lower quality showed lower probabilities of producing foals in successive years. Middle-aged (prime) females had the highest probability of giving birth when they had not reproduced the year before, but no such relationship with age was found among females that had reproduced the previous year, indicating that prime-aged females bear higher costs of reproduction. We show that individual quality and age were key factors modulating the costs of reproduction in a capital breeder but that

Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pfeiffer, Paul E.

This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…

Classic conditioning in aged rabbits: delay, trace, and long-delay conditioning.

PubMed

Solomon, P R; Groccia-Ellison, M E

1996-06-01

Young (0.5 years) and aged (2+, 3+, and 4+ years) rabbits underwent acquisition of the classically conditioned nictitating membrane response in a delay (500-ms conditioned stimulus [CS], 400-ms interstimulus interval [ISI]), long-delay (1,000-ms CS, 900-ms ISI), or trace (500-ms CS, 400-ms stimulus-free period) paradigm. Collapsing across age groups, there is a general tendency for animals to acquire trace conditioning more slowly than delay conditioning. Collapsing across conditioning paradigms, there is a general tendency for aged animals to acquire more slowly than younger animals. Of greater significance, however, are the age differences in the different conditioning paradigms. In the delay and long-delay paradigms, significant conditioning deficits first appeared in the 4(+)-year-old group. In the trace conditioning paradigm, significant conditioning deficits became apparent in the 2(+)-year-old animals.

Modeling summer month hydrological drought probabilities in the United States using antecedent flow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Nelms, David L.

2017-01-01

Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5-11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best-performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.

Heightened fire probability in Indonesia in non-drought conditions: the effect of increasing temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Kátia; Verchot, Louis; Baethgen, Walter; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miguel; Martius, Christopher

2017-05-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This was the case of the events of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated the impact of temperature on fires and found that when the July-October (JASO) period is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature is modest. In contrast, under normal-to-wet conditions, fire probability increases sharply when JASO is anomalously warm. This describes a regime in which an active fire season is not limited to drought years. Greater susceptibility to fires in response to a warmer environment finds support in the high evapotranspiration rates observed in normal-to-wet and warm conditions in Indonesia. We also find that fire probability in wet JASOs would be considerably less sensitive to temperature were not for the added effect of recent positive trends. Near-term regional climate projections reveal that, despite negligible changes in precipitation, a continuing warming trend will heighten fire probability over the next few decades especially in non-drought years. Mild fire seasons currently observed in association with wet conditions and cool temperatures will become rare events in Indonesia.

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Summary Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students’ understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference. PMID:25419016

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution.

PubMed

Dinov, Ivo D; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students' understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference.

Know the risk, take the win: how executive functions and probability processing influence advantageous decision making under risk conditions.

PubMed

Brand, Matthias; Schiebener, Johannes; Pertl, Marie-Theres; Delazer, Margarete

2014-01-01

Recent models on decision making under risk conditions have suggested that numerical abilities are important ingredients of advantageous decision-making performance, but empirical evidence is still limited. The results of our first study show that logical reasoning and basic mental calculation capacities predict ratio processing and that ratio processing predicts decision making under risk. In the second study, logical reasoning together with executive functions predicted probability processing (numeracy and probability knowledge), and probability processing predicted decision making under risk. These findings suggest that increasing an individual's understanding of ratios and probabilities should lead to more advantageous decisions under risk conditions.

Hawkes-diffusion process and the conditional probability of defaults in the Eurozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jungmu; Park, Yuen Jung; Ryu, Doojin

2016-05-01

This study examines market information embedded in the European sovereign CDS (credit default swap) market by analyzing the sovereign CDSs of 13 Eurozone countries from January 1, 2008, to February 29, 2012, which includes the recent Eurozone debt crisis period. We design the conditional probability of defaults for the CDS prices based on the Hawkes-diffusion process and obtain the theoretical prices of CDS indexes. To estimate the model parameters, we calibrate the model prices to empirical prices obtained from individual sovereign CDS term structure data. The estimated parameters clearly explain both cross-sectional and time-series data. Our empirical results show that the probability of a huge loss event sharply increased during the Eurozone debt crisis, indicating a contagion effect. Even countries with strong and stable economies, such as Germany and France, suffered from the contagion effect. We also find that the probability of small events is sensitive to the state of the economy, spiking several times due to the global financial crisis and the Greek government debt crisis.

Quasi-probabilities in conditioned quantum measurement and a geometric/statistical interpretation of Aharonov's weak value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jaeha; Tsutsui, Izumi

2017-05-01

We show that the joint behavior of an arbitrary pair of (generally noncommuting) quantum observables can be described by quasi-probabilities, which are an extended version of the standard probabilities used for describing the outcome of measurement for a single observable. The physical situations that require these quasi-probabilities arise when one considers quantum measurement of an observable conditioned by some other variable, with the notable example being the weak measurement employed to obtain Aharonov's weak value. Specifically, we present a general prescription for the construction of quasi-joint probability (QJP) distributions associated with a given combination of observables. These QJP distributions are introduced in two complementary approaches: one from a bottom-up, strictly operational construction realized by examining the mathematical framework of the conditioned measurement scheme, and the other from a top-down viewpoint realized by applying the results of the spectral theorem for normal operators and their Fourier transforms. It is then revealed that, for a pair of simultaneously measurable observables, the QJP distribution reduces to the unique standard joint probability distribution of the pair, whereas for a noncommuting pair there exists an inherent indefiniteness in the choice of such QJP distributions, admitting a multitude of candidates that may equally be used for describing the joint behavior of the pair. In the course of our argument, we find that the QJP distributions furnish the space of operators in the underlying Hilbert space with their characteristic geometric structures such that the orthogonal projections and inner products of observables can be given statistical interpretations as, respectively, “conditionings” and “correlations”. The weak value Aw for an observable A is then given a geometric/statistical interpretation as either the orthogonal projection of A onto the subspace generated by another observable B, or

The Probability of Neonatal Respiratory Distress Syndrome as a Function of Gestational Age and Lecithin/Sphingomyelin Ratio

PubMed Central

St. Clair, Caryn; Norwitz, Errol R.; Woensdregt, Karlijn; Cackovic, Michael; Shaw, Julia A.; Malkus, Herbert; Ehrenkranz, Richard A.; Illuzzi, Jessica L.

2011-01-01

We sought to define the risk of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) as a function of both lecithin/sphingomyelin (L/S) ratio and gestational age. Amniotic fluid L/S ratio data were collected from consecutive women undergoing amniocentesis for fetal lung maturity at Yale-New Haven Hospital from January 1998 to December 2004. Women were included in the study if they delivered a live-born, singleton, nonanomalous infant within 72 hours of amniocentesis. The probability of RDS was modeled using multivariate logistic regression with L/S ratio and gestational age as predictors. A total of 210 mother-neonate pairs (8 RDS, 202 non-RDS) met criteria for analysis. Both gestational age and L/S ratio were independent predictors of RDS. A probability of RDS of 3% or less was noted at an L/S ratio cutoff of ≥3.4 at 34 weeks, ≥2.6 at 36 weeks, ≥1.6 at 38 weeks, and ≥1.2 at term. Under 34 weeks of gestation, the prevalence of RDS was so high that a probability of 3% or less was not observed by this model. These data describe a means of stratifying the probability of neonatal RDS using both gestational age and the L/S ratio and may aid in clinical decision making concerning the timing of delivery. PMID:18773379

Probability of an Abnormal Screening PSA Result Based on Age, Race, and PSA Threshold

PubMed Central

Espaldon, Roxanne; Kirby, Katharine A.; Fung, Kathy Z.; Hoffman, Richard M.; Powell, Adam A.; Freedland, Stephen J.; Walter, Louise C.

2014-01-01

Objective To determine the distribution of screening PSA values in older men and how different PSA thresholds affect the proportion of white, black, and Latino men who would have an abnormal screening result across advancing age groups. Methods We used linked national VA and Medicare data to determine the value of the first screening PSA test (ng/mL) of 327,284 men age 65+ who underwent PSA screening in the VA healthcare system in 2003. We calculated the proportion of men with an abnormal PSA result based on age, race, and common PSA thresholds. Results Among men age 65+, 8.4% had a PSA >4.0ng/mL. The percentage of men with a PSA >4.0ng/mL increased with age and was highest in black men (13.8%) versus white (8.0%) or Latino men (10.0%) (P<0.001). Combining age and race, the probability of having a PSA >4.0ng/mL ranged from 5.1% of Latino men age 65–69 to 27.4% of black men age 85+. Raising the PSA threshold from >4.0ng/mL to >10.0ng/mL, reclassified the greatest percentage of black men age 85+ (18.3% absolute change) and the lowest percentage of Latino men age 65–69 (4.8% absolute change) as being under the biopsy threshold (P<0.001). Conclusions Age, race, and PSA threshold together affect the pre-test probability of an abnormal screening PSA result. Based on screening PSA distributions, stopping screening among men whose PSA < 3ng/ml means over 80% of white and Latino men age 70+ would stop further screening, and increasing the biopsy threshold to >10ng/ml has the greatest effect on reducing the number of older black men who will face biopsy decisions after screening. PMID:24439009

Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.

2013-01-01

The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

Conditional survival of all primary brain tumor patients by age, behavior, and histology.

PubMed

Porter, Kimberly R; McCarthy, Bridget J; Berbaum, Michael L; Davis, Faith G

2011-01-01

Survival statistics commonly reflect survival from the time of diagnosis but do not take into account survival already achieved after a diagnosis. The objective of this study was to provide conditional survival estimates for brain tumor patients as a more accurate measure of survival for those who have already survived for a specified amount of time after diagnosis. Data on primary malignant and nonmalignant brain tumor cases diagnosed from 1985-2005 from selected SEER state cancer registries were obtained. Relative survival up to 15 years postdiagnosis and varying relative conditional survival rates were computed using the life-table method. The overall 1-year relative survival estimate derived from time of diagnosis was 67.8% compared to the 6-month relative conditional survival rate of 85.7% for 6-month survivors (the probability of surviving to 1 year given survival to 6 months). The 10-year overall relative survival rate was 49.5% from time of diagnosis compared to the 8-year relative conditional survival rate of 79.2% for 2-year survivors. Conditional survival estimates and standard survival estimates varied by histology, behavior, and age at diagnosis. The 5-year relative survival estimate derived from time of diagnosis for glioblastoma was 3.6% compared to the 3-year relative conditional survival rate of 36.4% for 2-year survivors. For most nonmalignant tumors, the difference between relative survival and the corresponding conditional survival estimates were minimal. Older age groups had greater numeric gains in survival but lower conditional survival estimates than other age groups. Similar findings were seen for other conditional survival intervals. Conditional survival is a useful disease surveillance measure for clinicians and brain tumor survivors to provide them with better 'real-time' estimates and hope. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Adaptive Conditioning of Multiple-Point Geostatistical Facies Simulation to Flow Data with Facies Probability Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodabakhshi, M.; Jafarpour, B.

2013-12-01

Characterization of complex geologic patterns that create preferential flow paths in certain reservoir systems requires higher-order geostatistical modeling techniques. Multipoint statistics (MPS) provides a flexible grid-based approach for simulating such complex geologic patterns from a conceptual prior model known as a training image (TI). In this approach, a stationary TI that encodes the higher-order spatial statistics of the expected geologic patterns is used to represent the shape and connectivity of the underlying lithofacies. While MPS is quite powerful for describing complex geologic facies connectivity, the nonlinear and complex relation between the flow data and facies distribution makes flow data conditioning quite challenging. We propose an adaptive technique for conditioning facies simulation from a prior TI to nonlinear flow data. Non-adaptive strategies for conditioning facies simulation to flow data can involves many forward flow model solutions that can be computationally very demanding. To improve the conditioning efficiency, we develop an adaptive sampling approach through a data feedback mechanism based on the sampling history. In this approach, after a short period of sampling burn-in time where unconditional samples are generated and passed through an acceptance/rejection test, an ensemble of accepted samples is identified and used to generate a facies probability map. This facies probability map contains the common features of the accepted samples and provides conditioning information about facies occurrence in each grid block, which is used to guide the conditional facies simulation process. As the sampling progresses, the initial probability map is updated according to the collective information about the facies distribution in the chain of accepted samples to increase the acceptance rate and efficiency of the conditioning. This conditioning process can be viewed as an optimization approach where each new sample is proposed based on the

Empirical estimation of the conditional probability of natech events within the United States.

PubMed

Santella, Nicholas; Steinberg, Laura J; Aguirra, Gloria Andrea

2011-06-01

Natural disasters are the cause of a sizeable number of hazmat releases, referred to as "natechs." An enhanced understanding of natech probability, allowing for predictions of natech occurrence, is an important step in determining how industry and government should mitigate natech risk. This study quantifies the conditional probabilities of natechs at TRI/RMP and SICS 1311 facilities given the occurrence of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods. During hurricanes, a higher probability of releases was observed due to storm surge (7.3 releases per 100 TRI/RMP facilities exposed vs. 6.2 for SIC 1311) compared to category 1-2 hurricane winds (5.6 TRI, 2.6 SIC 1311). Logistic regression confirms the statistical significance of the greater propensity for releases at RMP/TRI facilities, and during some hurricanes, when controlling for hazard zone. The probability of natechs at TRI/RMP facilities during earthquakes increased from 0.1 releases per 100 facilities at MMI V to 21.4 at MMI IX. The probability of a natech at TRI/RMP facilities within 25 miles of a tornado was small (∼0.025 per 100 facilities), reflecting the limited area directly affected by tornadoes. Areas inundated during flood events had a probability of 1.1 releases per 100 facilities but demonstrated widely varying natech occurrence during individual events, indicating that factors not quantified in this study such as flood depth and speed are important for predicting flood natechs. These results can inform natech risk analysis, aid government agencies responsible for planning response and remediation after natural disasters, and should be useful in raising awareness of natech risk within industry. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Using conditional probability to identify trends in intra-day high-frequency equity pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rechenthin, Michael; Street, W. Nick

2013-12-01

By examining the conditional probabilities of price movements in a popular US stock over different high-frequency intra-day timespans, varying levels of trend predictability are identified. This study demonstrates the existence of predictable short-term trends in the market; understanding the probability of price movement can be useful to high-frequency traders. Price movement was examined in trade-by-trade (tick) data along with temporal timespans between 1 s to 30 min for 52 one-week periods for one highly-traded stock. We hypothesize that much of the initial predictability of trade-by-trade (tick) data is due to traditional market dynamics, or the bouncing of the price between the stock’s bid and ask. Only after timespans of between 5 to 10 s does this cease to explain the predictability; after this timespan, two consecutive movements in the same direction occur with higher probability than that of movements in the opposite direction. This pattern holds up to a one-minute interval, after which the strength of the pattern weakens.

GENERAL A Hierarchy of Compatibility and Comeasurability Levels in Quantum Logics with Unique Conditional Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerd, Niestegge

2010-12-01

In the quantum mechanical Hilbert space formalism, the probabilistic interpretation is a later ad-hoc add-on, more or less enforced by the experimental evidence, but not motivated by the mathematical model itself. A model involving a clear probabilistic interpretation from the very beginning is provided by the quantum logics with unique conditional probabilities. It includes the projection lattices in von Neumann algebras and here probability conditionalization becomes identical with the state transition of the Lüders-von Neumann measurement process. This motivates the definition of a hierarchy of five compatibility and comeasurability levels in the abstract setting of the quantum logics with unique conditional probabilities. Their meanings are: the absence of quantum interference or influence, the existence of a joint distribution, simultaneous measurability, and the independence of the final state after two successive measurements from the sequential order of these two measurements. A further level means that two elements of the quantum logic (events) belong to the same Boolean subalgebra. In the general case, the five compatibility and comeasurability levels appear to differ, but they all coincide in the common Hilbert space formalism of quantum mechanics, in von Neumann algebras, and in some other cases.

Thermal and mechanical quantitative sensory testing in Chinese patients with burning mouth syndrome--a probable neuropathic pain condition?

PubMed

Mo, Xueyin; Zhang, Jinglu; Fan, Yuan; Svensson, Peter; Wang, Kelun

2015-01-01

To explore the hypothesis that burning mouth syndrome (BMS) probably is a neuropathic pain condition, thermal and mechanical sensory and pain thresholds were tested and compared with age- and gender-matched control participants using a standardized battery of psychophysical techniques. Twenty-five BMS patients (men: 8, women: 17, age: 49.5 ± 11.4 years) and 19 age- and gender-matched healthy control participants were included. The cold detection threshold (CDT), warm detection threshold (WDT), cold pain threshold (CPT), heat pain threshold (HPT), mechanical detection threshold (MDT) and mechanical pain threshold (MPT), in accordance with the German Network of Neuropathic Pain guidelines, were measured at the following four sites: the dorsum of the left hand (hand), the skin at the mental foramen (chin), on the tip of the tongue (tongue), and the mucosa of the lower lip (lip). Statistical analysis was performed using ANOVA with repeated measures to compare the means within and between groups. Furthermore, Z-score profiles were generated, and exploratory correlation analyses between QST and clinical variables were performed. Two-tailed tests with a significance level of 5 % were used throughout. CDTs (P < 0.02) were significantly lower (less sensitivity) and HPTs (P < 0.001) were significantly higher (less sensitivity) at the tongue and lip in BMS patients compared to control participants. WDT (P = 0.007) was also significantly higher at the tongue in BMS patients compared to control subjects . There were no significant differences in MDT and MPT between the BMS patients and healthy subjects at any of the four test sites. Z-scores showed that significant loss of function can be identified for CDT (Z-scores = -0.9±1.1) and HPT (Z-scores = 1.5±0.4). There were no significant correlations between QST and clinical variables (pain intensity, duration, depressions scores). BMS patients had a significant loss of thermal function but not

Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Martin, J.; Kendall, William L.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2010-01-01

Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition-dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition-dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition-dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re-sights) of individual-based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976-2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture-mark-recapture framework to model age-dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition-dependent mortality during a range-wide drought event (2000-2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime-aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition-dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition-dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi-extinctions.

GEOGRAPHIC-SPECIFIC WATER QUALITY CRITERIA DEVELOPMENT WITH MONITORING DATA USING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES - A PROPOSED APPROACH

EPA Science Inventory

A conditional probability approach using monitoring data to develop geographic-specific water quality criteria for protection of aquatic life is presented. Typical methods to develop criteria using existing monitoring data are limited by two issues: (1) how to extrapolate to an...

A Comparison of Urge Intensity and the Probability of Tic Completion During Tic Freely and Tic Suppression Conditions.

PubMed

Specht, Matt W; Nicotra, Cassandra M; Kelly, Laura M; Woods, Douglas W; Ricketts, Emily J; Perry-Parrish, Carisa; Reynolds, Elizabeth; Hankinson, Jessica; Grados, Marco A; Ostrander, Rick S; Walkup, John T

2014-03-01

Tic-suppression-based treatments (TSBTs) represent a safe and effective treatment option for Chronic Tic Disorders (CTDs). Prior research has demonstrated that treatment naive youths with CTDs have the capacity to safely and effectively suppress tics for prolonged periods. It remains unclear how tic suppression is achieved. The current study principally examines how effective suppression is achieved and preliminary correlates of the ability to suppress tics. Twelve youths, ages 10 to 17 years, with moderate-to-marked CTDs participated in an alternating sequence of tic freely and reinforced tic suppression conditions during which urge intensity and tic frequency were frequently assessed. Probability of tics occurring was half as likely following high-intensity urges during tic suppression (31%) in contrast to low-intensity urges during tic freely conditions (60%). Age was not associated with ability to suppress. Intelligence indices were associated with or trended toward greater ability to suppress tics. Attention difficulties were not associated with ability to suppress but were associated with tic severity. In contrast to our "selective suppression" hypothesis, we found participants equally capable of suppressing their tics regardless of urge intensity during reinforced tic suppression. Tic suppression was achieved with an "across-the-board" effort to resist urges. Preliminary data suggest that ability to suppress may be associated with general cognitive variables rather than age, tic severity, urge severity, and attention. Treatment naive youths appear to possess a capacity for robust tic suppression. TSBTs may bolster these capacities and/or enable their broader implementation, resulting in symptom improvement. © The Author(s) 2014.

Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

2016-06-01

Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

Spatial prediction models for the probable biological condition of streams and rivers in the USA

EPA Science Inventory

The National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) is a probability-based survey conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency and its state and tribal partners. It provides information on the ecological condition of the rivers and streams in the conterminous USA, and the ex...

Random forest models for the probable biological condition of streams and rivers in the USA

EPA Science Inventory

The National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) is a probability based survey conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency and its state and tribal partners. It provides information on the ecological condition of the rivers and streams in the conterminous USA, and the ex...

Tracking the Sensory Environment: An ERP Study of Probability and Context Updating in ASD

PubMed Central

Westerfield, Marissa A.; Zinni, Marla; Vo, Khang; Townsend, Jeanne

2014-01-01

We recorded visual event-related brain potentials (ERPs) from 32 adult male participants (16 high-functioning participants diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and 16 control participants, ranging in age from 18–53 yrs) during a three-stimulus oddball paradigm. Target and non-target stimulus probability was varied across three probability conditions, whereas the probability of a third non-target stimulus was held constant in all conditions. P3 amplitude to target stimuli was more sensitive to probability in ASD than in TD participants, whereas P3 amplitude to non-target stimuli was less responsive to probability in ASD participants. This suggests that neural responses to changes in event probability are attention-dependant in high-functioning ASD. The implications of these findings for higher-level behaviors such as prediction and planning are discussed. PMID:24488156

Probabilistic Approach to Conditional Probability of Release of Hazardous Materials from Railroad Tank Cars during Accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-13

This paper describes a probabilistic approach to estimate the conditional probability of release of hazardous materials from railroad tank cars during train accidents. Monte Carlo methods are used in developing a probabilistic model to simulate head ...

Genetic evaluation of weaning weight and probability of lambing at 1 year of age in Targhee lambs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of this study was to investigate genetic control of 120-day weaning weight and the probability of lambing at 1 year of age in Targhee ewe lambs. Records of 5,967 ewe lambs born from 1989 to 2012 and first exposed to rams for breeding at approximately 7 months of age were analyzed. Reco...

Probability of detecting perchlorate under natural conditions in deep groundwater in California and the Southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fram, Miranda S.; Belitz, Kenneth

2011-01-01

We use data from 1626 groundwater samples collected in California, primarily from public drinking water supply wells, to investigate the distribution of perchlorate in deep groundwater under natural conditions. The wells were sampled for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Priority Basin Project. We develop a logistic regression model for predicting probabilities of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than multiple threshold concentrations as a function of climate (represented by an aridity index) and potential anthropogenic contributions of perchlorate (quantified as an anthropogenic score, AS). AS is a composite categorical variable including terms for nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. Incorporating water-quality parameters in AS permits identification of perturbation of natural occurrence patterns by flushing of natural perchlorate salts from unsaturated zones by irrigation recharge as well as addition of perchlorate from industrial and agricultural sources. The data and model results indicate low concentrations (0.1-0.5 μg/L) of perchlorate occur under natural conditions in groundwater across a wide range of climates, beyond the arid to semiarid climates in which they mostly have been previously reported. The probability of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than 0.1 μg/L under natural conditions ranges from 50-70% in semiarid to arid regions of California and the Southwestern United States to 5-15% in the wettest regions sampled (the Northern California coast). The probability of concentrations above 1 μg/L under natural conditions is low (generally <3%).

Bayesian probability analysis: a prospective demonstration of its clinical utility in diagnosing coronary disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Detrano, R.; Yiannikas, J.; Salcedo, E.E.

One hundred fifty-four patients referred for coronary arteriography were prospectively studied with stress electrocardiography, stress thallium scintigraphy, cine fluoroscopy (for coronary calcifications), and coronary angiography. Pretest probabilities of coronary disease were determined based on age, sex, and type of chest pain. These and pooled literature values for the conditional probabilities of test results based on disease state were used in Bayes theorem to calculate posttest probabilities of disease. The results of the three noninvasive tests were compared for statistical independence, a necessary condition for their simultaneous use in Bayes theorem. The test results were found to demonstrate pairwise independence inmore » patients with and those without disease. Some dependencies that were observed between the test results and the clinical variables of age and sex were not sufficient to invalidate application of the theorem. Sixty-eight of the study patients had at least one major coronary artery obstruction of greater than 50%. When these patients were divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-probability subgroups according to their pretest probabilities, noninvasive test results analyzed by Bayesian probability analysis appropriately advanced 17 of them by at least one probability subgroup while only seven were moved backward. Of the 76 patients without disease, 34 were appropriately moved into a lower probability subgroup while 10 were incorrectly moved up. We conclude that posttest probabilities calculated from Bayes theorem more accurately classified patients with and without disease than did pretest probabilities, thus demonstrating the utility of the theorem in this application.« less

Gender and Ageing at Work in Chile: Employment, Working Conditions, Work-Life Balance and Health of Men and Women in an Ageing Workforce.

PubMed

Vives, Alejandra; Gray, Nora; González, Francisca; Molina, Agustín

2018-04-18

workplace risks continue to be high into old age: intensive work and demanding physical work, especially in men, and the combination of paid and unpaid care work in women, which continues to be high up to the age of 70 years. The health of older workers is better than that of non-working people of the same age, a gap which is markedly larger for women than men and tends to increase among women as they age. Results indicate that Chileans working into old age face precarious jobs with limited protection and several adverse working conditions. Noteworthy, women carry the double burden of paid and unpaid work into their late years. In addition, results suggest they are affected more profoundly by the healthy worker effect whereby the health condition determines the probability of finding and keeping a job-also known as a health selection mechanism-which increases as they age. These employment and working conditions indicate that working into old age is not yet sustainable in Chile and counts as evidence that needs to be taken into account in discussions about delaying the retirement age in the country, as well as incorporating support systems to alleviate the double work burden of ageing working women.

Variation in probability of first reproduction of Weddell seals.

PubMed

Hadley, Gillian L; Rotella, Jay J; Garrott, Robert A; Nichols, James D

2006-09-01

1. For many species, when to begin reproduction is an important life-history decision that varies by individual and can have substantial implications for lifetime reproductive success and fitness. 2. We estimated age-specific probabilities of first-time breeding and modelled variation in these rates to determine age at first reproduction and understand why it varies in a population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multistate mark-recapture modelling methods and encounter histories of 4965 known-age female seals to test predictions about age-related variation in probability of first reproduction and the effects of annual variation, cohort and population density. 3. Mean age at first reproduction in this southerly located study population (7.62 years of age, SD=1.71) was greater than age at first reproduction for a Weddell seal population at a more northerly and typical latitude for breeding Weddell seals (mean=4-5 years of age). This difference suggests that age at first reproduction may be influenced by whether a population inhabits the core or periphery of its range. 4. Age at first reproduction varied from 4 to 14 years, but there was no age by which all seals recruited to the breeding population, suggesting that individual heterogeneity exists among females in this population. 5. In the best model, the probability of breeding for the first time varied by age and year, and the amount of annual variation varied with age (average variance ratio for age-specific rates=4.3%). 6. Our results affirmed the predictions of life-history theory that age at first reproduction in long-lived mammals will be sensitive to environmental variation. In terms of life-history evolution, this variability suggests that Weddell seals display flexibility in age at first reproduction in order to maximize reproductive output under varying environmental conditions. Future analyses will attempt to test predictions regarding relationships between environmental covariates

Variation in probability of first reproduction of Weddell seals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hadley, G.L.; Rotella, J.J.; Garrott, R.A.; Nichols, J.D.

2006-01-01

Summary 1. For many species, when to begin reproduction is an important life-history decision that varies by individual and can have substantial implications for lifetime reproductive success and fitness. 2. We estimated age-specific probabilities of first-time breeding and modelled variation in these rates to determine age at first reproduction and understand why it varies in a population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multistate mark?recapture modelling methods and encounter histories of 4965 known-age female seals to test predictions about age-related variation in probability of first reproduction and the effects of annual variation, cohort and population density. 3. Mean age at first reproduction in this southerly located study population (7.62 years of age, SD =1.71) was greater than age at first reproduction for a Weddell seal population at a more northerly and typical latitude for breeding Weddell seals (mean =4?5 years of age). This difference suggests that age at first reproduction may be influenced by whether a population inhabits the core or periphery of its range. 4. Age at first reproduction varied from 4 to 14 years, but there was no age by which all seals recruited to the breeding population, suggesting that individual heterogeneity exists among females in this population. 5. In the best model, the probability of breeding for the first time varied by age and year, and the amount of annual variation varied with age (average variance ratio for age-specific rates =4.3%). 6. Our results affirmed the predictions of life-history theory that age at first reproduction in long-lived mammals will be sensitive to environmental variation. In terms of life history evolution, this variability suggests that Weddell seals display flexibility in age at first reproduction in order to maximize reproductive output under varying environmental conditions. Future analyses will attempt to test predictions regarding relationships between environmental

Conditional probability of rainfall extremes across multiple durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2017-04-01

The conditional probability that extreme rainfall will occur at one location given that it is occurring at another location is critical in engineering design and management circumstances including planning of evacuation routes and the sitting of emergency infrastructure. A challenge with this conditional simulation is that in many situations the interest is not so much the conditional distributions of rainfall of the same duration at two locations, but rather the conditional distribution of flooding in two neighbouring catchments, which may be influenced by rainfall of different critical durations. To deal with this challenge, a model that can consider both spatial and duration dependence of extremes is required. The aim of this research is to develop a model that can take account both spatial dependence and duration dependence into the dependence structure of extreme rainfalls. To achieve this aim, this study is a first attempt at combining extreme rainfall for multiple durations within a spatial extreme model framework based on max-stable process theory. Max-stable processes provide a general framework for modelling multivariate extremes with spatial dependence for just a single duration extreme rainfall. To achieve dependence across multiple timescales, this study proposes a new approach that includes addition elements representing duration dependence of extremes to the covariance matrix of max-stable model. To improve the efficiency of calculation, a re-parameterization proposed by Koutsoyiannis et al. (1998) is used to reduce the number of parameters necessary to be estimated. This re-parameterization enables the GEV parameters to be represented as a function of timescale. A stepwise framework has been adopted to achieve the overall aims of this research. Firstly, the re-parameterization is used to define a new set of common parameters for marginal distribution across multiple durations. Secondly, spatial interpolation of the new parameter set is used to

Evidence reasoning method for constructing conditional probability tables in a Bayesian network of multimorbidity.

PubMed

Du, Yuanwei; Guo, Yubin

2015-01-01

The intrinsic mechanism of multimorbidity is difficult to recognize and prediction and diagnosis are difficult to carry out accordingly. Bayesian networks can help to diagnose multimorbidity in health care, but it is difficult to obtain the conditional probability table (CPT) because of the lack of clinically statistical data. Today, expert knowledge and experience are increasingly used in training Bayesian networks in order to help predict or diagnose diseases, but the CPT in Bayesian networks is usually irrational or ineffective for ignoring realistic constraints especially in multimorbidity. In order to solve these problems, an evidence reasoning (ER) approach is employed to extract and fuse inference data from experts using a belief distribution and recursive ER algorithm, based on which evidence reasoning method for constructing conditional probability tables in Bayesian network of multimorbidity is presented step by step. A multimorbidity numerical example is used to demonstrate the method and prove its feasibility and application. Bayesian network can be determined as long as the inference assessment is inferred by each expert according to his/her knowledge or experience. Our method is more effective than existing methods for extracting expert inference data accurately and is fused effectively for constructing CPTs in a Bayesian network of multimorbidity.

BIODEGRADATION PROBABILITY PROGRAM (BIODEG)

EPA Science Inventory

The Biodegradation Probability Program (BIODEG) calculates the probability that a chemical under aerobic conditions with mixed cultures of microorganisms will biodegrade rapidly or slowly. It uses fragment constants developed using multiple linear and non-linear regressions and d...

Estimating the Probability of Traditional Copying, Conditional on Answer-Copying Statistics.

PubMed

Allen, Jeff; Ghattas, Andrew

2016-06-01

Statistics for detecting copying on multiple-choice tests produce p values measuring the probability of a value at least as large as that observed, under the null hypothesis of no copying. The posterior probability of copying is arguably more relevant than the p value, but cannot be derived from Bayes' theorem unless the population probability of copying and probability distribution of the answer-copying statistic under copying are known. In this article, the authors develop an estimator for the posterior probability of copying that is based on estimable quantities and can be used with any answer-copying statistic. The performance of the estimator is evaluated via simulation, and the authors demonstrate how to apply the formula using actual data. Potential uses, generalizability to other types of cheating, and limitations of the approach are discussed.

Probability matching in perceptrons: Effects of conditional dependence and linear nonseparability.

PubMed

Dawson, Michael R W; Gupta, Maya

2017-01-01

Probability matching occurs when the behavior of an agent matches the likelihood of occurrence of events in the agent's environment. For instance, when artificial neural networks match probability, the activity in their output unit equals the past probability of reward in the presence of a stimulus. Our previous research demonstrated that simple artificial neural networks (perceptrons, which consist of a set of input units directly connected to a single output unit) learn to match probability when presented different cues in isolation. The current paper extends this research by showing that perceptrons can match probabilities when presented simultaneous cues, with each cue signaling different reward likelihoods. In our first simulation, we presented up to four different cues simultaneously; the likelihood of reward signaled by the presence of one cue was independent of the likelihood of reward signaled by other cues. Perceptrons learned to match reward probabilities by treating each cue as an independent source of information about the likelihood of reward. In a second simulation, we violated the independence between cues by making some reward probabilities depend upon cue interactions. We did so by basing reward probabilities on a logical combination (AND or XOR) of two of the four possible cues. We also varied the size of the reward associated with the logical combination. We discovered that this latter manipulation was a much better predictor of perceptron performance than was the logical structure of the interaction between cues. This indicates that when perceptrons learn to match probabilities, they do so by assuming that each signal of a reward is independent of any other; the best predictor of perceptron performance is a quantitative measure of the independence of these input signals, and not the logical structure of the problem being learned.

Probability matching in perceptrons: Effects of conditional dependence and linear nonseparability

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Probability matching occurs when the behavior of an agent matches the likelihood of occurrence of events in the agent’s environment. For instance, when artificial neural networks match probability, the activity in their output unit equals the past probability of reward in the presence of a stimulus. Our previous research demonstrated that simple artificial neural networks (perceptrons, which consist of a set of input units directly connected to a single output unit) learn to match probability when presented different cues in isolation. The current paper extends this research by showing that perceptrons can match probabilities when presented simultaneous cues, with each cue signaling different reward likelihoods. In our first simulation, we presented up to four different cues simultaneously; the likelihood of reward signaled by the presence of one cue was independent of the likelihood of reward signaled by other cues. Perceptrons learned to match reward probabilities by treating each cue as an independent source of information about the likelihood of reward. In a second simulation, we violated the independence between cues by making some reward probabilities depend upon cue interactions. We did so by basing reward probabilities on a logical combination (AND or XOR) of two of the four possible cues. We also varied the size of the reward associated with the logical combination. We discovered that this latter manipulation was a much better predictor of perceptron performance than was the logical structure of the interaction between cues. This indicates that when perceptrons learn to match probabilities, they do so by assuming that each signal of a reward is independent of any other; the best predictor of perceptron performance is a quantitative measure of the independence of these input signals, and not the logical structure of the problem being learned. PMID:28212422

Concepts and Bounded Rationality: An Application of Niestegge's Approach to Conditional Quantum Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blutner, Reinhard

2009-03-01

Recently, Gerd Niestegge developed a new approach to quantum mechanics via conditional probabilities developing the well-known proposal to consider the Lüders-von Neumann measurement as a non-classical extension of probability conditionalization. I will apply his powerful and rigorous approach to the treatment of concepts using a geometrical model of meaning. In this model, instances are treated as vectors of a Hilbert space H. In the present approach there are at least two possibilities to form categories. The first possibility sees categories as a mixture of its instances (described by a density matrix). In the simplest case we get the classical probability theory including the Bayesian formula. The second possibility sees categories formed by a distinctive prototype which is the superposition of the (weighted) instances. The construction of prototypes can be seen as transferring a mixed quantum state into a pure quantum state freezing the probabilistic characteristics of the superposed instances into the structure of the formed prototype. Closely related to the idea of forming concepts by prototypes is the existence of interference effects. Such inference effects are typically found in macroscopic quantum systems and I will discuss them in connection with several puzzles of bounded rationality. The present approach nicely generalizes earlier proposals made by authors such as Diederik Aerts, Andrei Khrennikov, Ricardo Franco, and Jerome Busemeyer. Concluding, I will suggest that an active dialogue between cognitive approaches to logic and semantics and the modern approach of quantum information science is mandatory.

Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time-Series and Intervention Analysis.

PubMed

Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei

2017-07-01

In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs) based on time-series methods is developed. In addition, intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the time-series process. The results show that the CPBA increased dramatically at the end of 2011. During that time, the CPBA increased by 16.0% in a two-month period to reach the peak value, but still stays 9.0% greater than the predicted level after the temporary effect gradually decays. By contrast, no significant fluctuation can be found in the conditional probability process of armed assault. It can be inferred that some social unrest, such as America's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, could have led to the increase of the CPBA in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. The integrated time-series and intervention model is used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and through 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. The model is also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Impact of Age on the Risk of Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in a Young Population: An Analysis Using the Predicted Probability Model.

PubMed

Jung, Yoon Suk; Park, Chan Hyuk; Kim, Nam Hee; Lee, Mi Yeon; Park, Dong Il

2017-09-01

The incidence of colorectal cancer is decreasing in adults aged ≥50 years and increasing in those aged <50 years. We aimed to establish risk stratification model for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACRN) in persons aged <50 years. We reviewed the records of participants who had undergone a colonoscopy as part of a health examination at two large medical examination centers in Korea. By using logistic regression analysis, we developed predicted probability models for ACRN in a population aged 30-49 years. Of 96,235 participants, 57,635 and 38,600 were included in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The predicted probability model considered age, sex, body mass index, family history of colorectal cancer, and smoking habits, as follows: Y ACRN  = -8.755 + 0.080·X age  - 0.055·X male  + 0.041·X BMI  + 0.200·X family_history_of_CRC  + 0.218·X former_smoker  + 0.644·X current_smoker . The optimal cutoff value for the predicted probability of ACRN by Youden index was 1.14%. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of our model for ACRN were higher than those of the previously established Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS), Korean Colorectal Screening (KCS), and Kaminski's scoring models [AUROC (95% confidence interval): model in the current study, 0.673 (0.648-0.697); vs. APCS, 0.588 (0.564-0.611), P < 0.001; vs. KCS, 0.602 (0.576-0.627), P < 0.001; and vs. Kaminski's model, 0.586 (0.560-0.612), P < 0.001]. In a young population, a predicted probability model can assess the risk of ACRN more accurately than existing models, including the APCS, KCS, and Kaminski's scoring models.

Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

PubMed

Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

2015-04-01

This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental investigation of the intensity fluctuation joint probability and conditional distributions of the twin-beam quantum state.

PubMed

Zhang, Yun; Kasai, Katsuyuki; Watanabe, Masayoshi

2003-01-13

We give the intensity fluctuation joint probability of the twin-beam quantum state, which was generated with an optical parametric oscillator operating above threshold. Then we present what to our knowledge is the first measurement of the intensity fluctuation conditional probability distributions of twin beams. The measured inference variance of twin beams 0.62+/-0.02, which is less than the standard quantum limit of unity, indicates inference with a precision better than that of separable states. The measured photocurrent variance exhibits a quantum correlation of as much as -4.9+/-0.2 dB between the signal and the idler.

The relationship between groundwater ages, streamflow ages, and storage selection functions under stationary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berghuijs, W.; Kirchner, J. W.

2017-12-01

Waters in aquifers are often much older than the streamwaters that drain them. Simple physically based reasoning suggests that these age contrasts should be expected wherever catchments are heterogeneous. However, a general quantitative catchment-scale explanation of these age contrasts remains elusive. We show that under stationary conditions conservation of mass and age dictate that the age distribution of water stored in a catchment can be directly estimated from the age distribution of its outflows, and vice versa. This in turn implies that the catchment's preference for the release or retention of waters of different ages can be estimated directly from the age distribution of outflow under stationary conditions. Using simple models of transit times, we show that the mean age of stored water can range from half as old as the mean age of streamflow (for plug flow conditions) to almost infinitely older (for strongly preferential flow). Streamflow age distributions reported in the literature often have long upper tails, consistent with preferential flow and implying that storage ages are substantially older than streamflow ages. Mean streamflow ages reported in the literature imply that most streamflow originates from a thin veneer of total groundwater storage. This preferential release of young streamflow implies that most groundwater is exchanged only slowly with the surface, and consequently must be very old. Where information is available for both storage ages and streamflow ages, our analysis establishes consistency relationships through which each could be used to better constrain the other. By quantifying the relationship between groundwater and streamflow ages, our analysis provides tools to jointly assess both of these important catchment properties.

Aging causes exacerbated ischemic brain injury and failure of sevoflurane post-conditioning: role of B-cell lymphoma-2.

PubMed

Dong, P; Zhao, J; Zhang, Y; Dong, J; Zhang, L; Li, D; Li, L; Zhang, X; Yang, B; Lei, W

2014-09-05

Aging is associated with exacerbated brain injury after ischemic stroke. Herein, we explored the possible mechanisms underlying the age-associated exacerbated brain injury after ischemic stroke and determined whether therapeutic intervention with anesthetic post-conditioning would provide neuroprotection in aged rats. Male Fisher 344 rats (young, 4 months; aged, 24 months) underwent 2h of middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) followed by 24-h reperfusion, with or without sevoflurane post-conditioning for 15 min immediately at the onset of reperfusion. Compared with young rats, aged rats showed larger infarct size, worse neurological scores and more TUNEL-positive cells in the penumbral cerebral cortex at 24h after MCAO. However, edema formation and motor coordination were similar in both groups. Sevoflurane reduced the infarct size, edema formation, and TUNEL-positive cells, and improved the neurological outcome in young rats but not in aged rats. Molecular studies revealed that basal expression of the anti-apoptotic molecule B-cell lymphoma-2 (Bcl-2) in the brain was lower in aged rats compared with young rats before MCAO, while basal expression of the pro-apoptotic molecule Bcl-2-associated X protein (Bax) showed similar levels in both groups. MCAO reduced Bcl-2 expression and increased Bax expression in both groups; however, Bax increase was more pronounced in aged rats. In young rats, sevoflurane reversed the above MCAO-induced changes. In contrast, sevoflurane failed to enhance Bcl-2 expression but decreased Bax expression in aged rats. These findings suggest that aging-associated reduction in basal Bcl-2 expression in the brain contributes to increased neuronal injury by enhancing cell apoptosis after ischemic stroke. Sevoflurane post-conditioning failed to provide neuroprotection in aged rats, probably due to its inability to increase Bcl-2 levels and prevent apoptosis in the brain. Copyright © 2014 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction suppression in monkey inferotemporal cortex depends on the conditional probability between images.

PubMed

Ramachandran, Suchitra; Meyer, Travis; Olson, Carl R

2016-01-01

When monkeys view two images in fixed sequence repeatedly over days and weeks, neurons in area TE of the inferotemporal cortex come to exhibit prediction suppression. The trailing image elicits only a weak response when presented following the leading image that preceded it during training. Induction of prediction suppression might depend either on the contiguity of the images, as determined by their co-occurrence and captured in the measure of joint probability P(A,B), or on their contingency, as determined by their correlation and as captured in the measures of conditional probability P(A|B) and P(B|A). To distinguish between these possibilities, we measured prediction suppression after imposing training regimens that held P(A,B) constant but varied P(A|B) and P(B|A). We found that reducing either P(A|B) or P(B|A) during training attenuated prediction suppression as measured during subsequent testing. We conclude that prediction suppression depends on contingency, as embodied in the predictive relations between the images, and not just on contiguity, as embodied in their co-occurrence. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Depressive Symptoms and Salivary Telomere Length in a Probability Sample of Middle-Aged and Older Adults.

PubMed

Whisman, Mark A; Richardson, Emily D

To examine the association between depressive symptoms and salivary telomere length in a probability sample of middle-aged and older adults, and to evaluate age and sex as potential moderators of this association and test whether this association was incremental to potential confounds. Participants were 3,609 individuals from the 2008 wave of the Health and Retirement Study. Telomere length assays were performed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction on DNA extracted from saliva samples. Depressive symptoms were assessed via interview, and health and lifestyle factors, traumatic life events, and neuroticism were assessed via self-report. Regression analyses were conducted to examine the associations between predictor variables and salivary telomere length. After adjusting for demographics, depressive symptoms were negatively associated with salivary telomere length (b = -.003; p = .014). Furthermore, this association was moderated by sex (b = .005; p = .011), such that depressive symptoms were significantly and negatively associated with salivary telomere length for men (b = - .006; p < .001) but not for women (b = - .001; p = .644). The negative association between depressive symptoms and salivary telomere length in men remained statistically significant after additionally adjusting for cigarette smoking, body mass index, chronic health conditions, childhood and lifetime exposure to traumatic life events, and neuroticism. Higher levels of depressive symptoms were associated with shorter salivary telomeres in men, and this association was incremental to several potential confounds. Shortened telomeres may help account for the association between depression and poor physical health and mortality.

Time-dependent earthquake probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Belardinelli, M.E.; Cocco, M.; Reasenberg, P.

2005-01-01

We have attempted to provide a careful examination of a class of approaches for estimating the conditional probability of failure of a single large earthquake, particularly approaches that account for static stress perturbations to tectonic loading as in the approaches of Stein et al. (1997) and Hardebeck (2004). We have loading as in the framework based on a simple, generalized rate change formulation and applied it to these two approaches to show how they relate to one another. We also have attempted to show the connection between models of seismicity rate changes applied to (1) populations of independent faults as in background and aftershock seismicity and (2) changes in estimates of the conditional probability of failures of different members of a the notion of failure rate corresponds to successive failures of different members of a population of faults. The latter application requires specification of some probability distribution (density function of PDF) that describes some population of potential recurrence times. This PDF may reflect our imperfect knowledge of when past earthquakes have occurred on a fault (epistemic uncertainty), the true natural variability in failure times, or some combination of both. We suggest two end-member conceptual single-fault models that may explain natural variability in recurrence times and suggest how they might be distinguished observationally. When viewed deterministically, these single-fault patch models differ significantly in their physical attributes, and when faults are immature, they differ in their responses to stress perturbations. Estimates of conditional failure probabilities effectively integrate over a range of possible deterministic fault models, usually with ranges that correspond to mature faults. Thus conditional failure probability estimates usually should not differ significantly for these models. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Working conditions in mid-life and mental health in older ages.

PubMed

Wahrendorf, Morten; Blane, David; Bartley, Mel; Dragano, Nico; Siegrist, Johannes

2013-03-01

This article illustrates the importance of previous working conditions during mid-life (between 40 and 55) for mental health among older retired men and women (60 or older) across 13 European countries. We link information on health from the second wave (2006-2007) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) with information on respondents' working life collected retrospectively in the SHARELIFE interview (2008-2009). To measure working conditions, we rely on core assumptions of existing theoretical models of work stress (the demand-control-support and the effort-reward imbalance model) and distinguish four types of unhealthy working conditions: (1) a stressful psychosocial work environment (as assessed by the two work stress models) (2) a disadvantaged occupational position throughout the whole period of mid-life, (3) experience of involuntary job loss, and (4) exposure to job instability. Health after labour market exit is measured using depressive symptoms, as measured by the EURO-D depression scale. Main results show that men and women who experienced psychosocial stress at work or had low occupational positions during mid-life had significantly higher probabilities of high depressive symptoms during retirement. Additionally, men with unstable working careers and an involuntary job loss were at higher risks to report high depressive symptoms in later life. These associations remain significant after controlling for workers' health and social position prior mid-life. These findings support the assumption that mental health of retirees who experienced poor working conditions during mid-life is impaired. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combination of a Stressor-Response Model with a Conditional Probability Analysis Approach for Developing Candidate Criteria from MBSS

EPA Science Inventory

I show that a conditional probability analysis using a stressor-response model based on a logistic regression provides a useful approach for developing candidate water quality criteria from empirical data, such as the Maryland Biological Streams Survey (MBSS) data.

Health, Aging and Childhood Socio-Economic Conditions in Mexico

PubMed Central

Grimard, Franque; Laszlo, Sonia; Lim, Wilfredo

2015-01-01

We investigate the long-term effect of childhood socio-economic conditions on the health of the elderly in Mexico. We utilize a panel of individuals aged 50 and above from the Mexican Health and Aging Survey and find that the conditions under which the individual lived at the age of 10 affect health in old age, even accounting for education and income. This paper contributes to the literature of the long-term effects of childhood socio-economic status by being the first, to our knowledge, to consider exclusively the case of the elderly in a developing country. PMID:20688405

Transfer of Solutions to Conditional Probability Problems: Effects of Example Problem Format, Solution Format, and Problem Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chow, Alan F.; Van Haneghan, James P.

2016-01-01

This study reports the results of a study examining how easily students are able to transfer frequency solutions to conditional probability problems to novel situations. University students studied either a problem solved using the traditional Bayes formula format or using a natural frequency (tree diagram) format. In addition, the example problem…

Vertical changes in the probability distribution of downward irradiance within the near-surface ocean under sunny conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gernez, Pierre; Stramski, Dariusz; Darecki, Miroslaw

2011-07-01

Time series measurements of fluctuations in underwater downward irradiance, Ed, within the green spectral band (532 nm) show that the probability distribution of instantaneous irradiance varies greatly as a function of depth within the near-surface ocean under sunny conditions. Because of intense light flashes caused by surface wave focusing, the near-surface probability distributions are highly skewed to the right and are heavy tailed. The coefficients of skewness and excess kurtosis at depths smaller than 1 m can exceed 3 and 20, respectively. We tested several probability models, such as lognormal, Gumbel, Fréchet, log-logistic, and Pareto, which are potentially suited to describe the highly skewed heavy-tailed distributions. We found that the models cannot approximate with consistently good accuracy the high irradiance values within the right tail of the experimental distribution where the probability of these values is less than 10%. This portion of the distribution corresponds approximately to light flashes with Ed > 1.5?, where ? is the time-averaged downward irradiance. However, the remaining part of the probability distribution covering all irradiance values smaller than the 90th percentile can be described with a reasonable accuracy (i.e., within 20%) with a lognormal model for all 86 measurements from the top 10 m of the ocean included in this analysis. As the intensity of irradiance fluctuations decreases with depth, the probability distribution tends toward a function symmetrical around the mean like the normal distribution. For the examined data set, the skewness and excess kurtosis assumed values very close to zero at a depth of about 10 m.

A method of decision analysis quantifying the effects of age and comorbidities on the probability of deriving significant benefit from medical treatments

PubMed Central

Bean, Nigel G.; Ruberu, Ravi P.

2017-01-01

Background The external validity, or generalizability, of trials and guidelines has been considered poor in the context of multiple morbidity. How multiple morbidity might affect the magnitude of benefit of a given treatment, and thereby external validity, has had little study. Objective To provide a method of decision analysis to quantify the effects of age and comorbidity on the probability of deriving a given magnitude of treatment benefit. Design We developed a method to calculate probabilistically the effect of all of a patient’s comorbidities on their underlying utility, or well-being, at a future time point. From this, we derived a distribution of possible magnitudes of treatment benefit at that future time point. We then expressed this distribution as the probability of deriving at least a given magnitude of treatment benefit. To demonstrate the applicability of this method of decision analysis, we applied it to the treatment of hypercholesterolaemia in a geriatric population of 50 individuals. We highlighted the results of four of these individuals. Results This method of analysis provided individualized quantifications of the effect of age and comorbidity on the probability of treatment benefit. The average probability of deriving a benefit, of at least 50% of the magnitude of benefit available to an individual without comorbidity, was only 0.8%. Conclusion The effects of age and comorbidity on the probability of deriving significant treatment benefits can be quantified for any individual. Even without consideration of other factors affecting external validity, these effects may be sufficient to guide decision-making. PMID:29090189

Otological diagnoses and probable age-related auditory neuropathy in "younger" and "older" elderly persons.

PubMed

Rosenhall, Ulf; Hederstierna, Christina; Idrizbegovic, Esma

2011-09-01

Audiological data from a population based epidemiological investigation were studied on elderly persons. Specific diagnoses of otological and audiological disorders, which can result in hearing loss, were searched for. A retrospective register study. Three age cohorts, 474 70- and 75-year olds ("younger"), and 252 85-year olds ("older"), were studied. Clinical pure tone and speech audiometry was used. Data from medical files were included. Conductive hearing loss was diagnosed in 6.1% of the "younger" elderly persons, and in 10.3% of the "older" ones. Specific diagnoses (chronic otitis media and otosclerosis) were established in about half of the cases. Sensorineural hearing loss, other than age-related hearing loss and noise induced hearing loss, was diagnosed in 3.4 % and 5.2% respectively. Severely impaired speech recognition, possibly reflecting age-related auditory neuropathy, was found in 0.4% in the "younger" group, and in 10% in the "older" group. Bilateral functional deafness was present in 3.2% of the 85-year-old persons, but was not present in the 70-75-year group. The incidence of probable age-related auditory neuropathy increases considerably from 70-75 to 85 years. There are marked differences between "younger" and "older" elderly persons regarding hearing loss that severely affects oral communication.

Depressive Symptoms and Salivary Telomere Length in a Probability Sample of Middle-Aged and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Whisman, Mark A.; Richardson, Emily D.

2016-01-01

Objective To examine the association between depressive symptoms and salivary telomere length in a probability sample of middle-aged and older adults, evaluate age and sex as potential moderators of this association, and test whether this association was incremental to potential confounds. Methods Participants were 3,609 individuals from the 2008 wave of the Health and Retirement Study. Telomere length assays were performed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) on DNA extracted from saliva samples. Depressive symptoms were assessed via interview, and health and lifestyle factors, traumatic life events, and neuroticism were assessed via self-report. Regression analyses were conducted to examine the associations between predictor variables and salivary telomere length. Results After adjusting for demographics, depressive symptoms were negatively associated with salivary telomere length (b = −.003, p = .014). Furthermore, this association was moderated by sex (b = .005, p = .011), such that depressive symptoms were significantly and negatively associated with salivary telomere length for men (b = −.006, p < .001) but not for women (b = −.001, p = .644). The negative association between depressive symptoms and salivary telomere length in men remained statistically significant after additionally adjusting for cigarette smoking, body mass index, chronic health conditions, childhood and lifetime exposure to traumatic life events, and neuroticism. Conclusions Higher levels of depressive symptoms were associated with shorter salivary telomeres in men and this association was incremental to several potential confounds. Shortened telomeres may help account for the association between depression and poor physical health and mortality. PMID:28029664

The Importance of Conditional Probability in Diagnostic Reasoning and Clinical Decision Making: A Primer for the Eye Care Practitioner.

PubMed

Sanfilippo, Paul G; Hewitt, Alex W; Mackey, David A

2017-04-01

To outline and detail the importance of conditional probability in clinical decision making and discuss the various diagnostic measures eye care practitioners should be aware of in order to improve the scope of their clinical practice. We conducted a review of the importance of conditional probability in diagnostic testing for the eye care practitioner. Eye care practitioners use diagnostic tests on a daily basis to assist in clinical decision making and optimizing patient care and management. These tests provide probabilistic information that can enable the clinician to increase (or decrease) their level of certainty about the presence of a particular condition. While an understanding of the characteristics of diagnostic tests are essential to facilitate proper interpretation of test results and disease risk, many practitioners either confuse or misinterpret these measures. In the interests of their patients, practitioners should be aware of the basic concepts associated with diagnostic testing and the simple mathematical rule that underpins them. Importantly, the practitioner needs to recognize that the prevalence of a disease in the population greatly determines the clinical value of a diagnostic test.

Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odafe, Victor U.

2011-01-01

Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

Combination of a Stresor-Response Model with a Conditional Probability Anaylsis Approach to Develop Candidate Criteria from Empirical Data

EPA Science Inventory

We show that a conditional probability analysis that utilizes a stressor-response model based on a logistic regression provides a useful approach for developing candidate water quality criterai from empirical data. The critical step in this approach is transforming the response ...

Identifying sources of heterogeneity in capture probabilities: An example using the Great Tit Parus major

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senar, J.C.; Conroy, M.J.; Carrascal, L.M.; Domenech, J.; Mozetich, I.; Uribe, F.

1999-01-01

Heterogeneous capture probabilities are a common problem in many capture-recapture studies. Several methods of detecting the presence of such heterogeneity are currently available, and stratification of data has been suggested as the standard method to avoid its effects. However, few studies have tried to identify sources of heterogeneity, or whether there are interactions among sources. The aim of this paper is to suggest an analytical procedure to identify sources of capture heterogeneity. We use data on the sex and age of Great Tits captured in baited funnel traps, at two localities differing in average temperature. We additionally use 'recapture' data obtained by videotaping at feeder (with no associated trap), where the tits ringed with different colours were recorded. This allowed us to test whether individuals in different classes (age, sex and condition) are not trapped because of trap shyness or because o a reduced use of the bait. We used logistic regression analysis of the capture probabilities to test for the effects of age, sex, condition, location and 'recapture method. The results showed a higher recapture probability in the colder locality. Yearling birds (either males or females) had the highest recapture prob abilities, followed by adult males, while adult females had the lowest recapture probabilities. There was no effect of the method of 'recapture' (trap or video tape), which suggests that adult females are less often captured in traps no because of trap-shyness but because of less dependence on supplementary food. The potential use of this methodological approach in other studies is discussed.

26 CFR 1.410(a)-3 - Minimum age and service conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Minimum age and service conditions. 1.410(a)-3...(a)-3 Minimum age and service conditions. (a) General rule. Except as provided by paragraph (b) or (c... of— (1) Age 25. The date on which the employee attains the age of 25; or (2) One year of service. The...

26 CFR 1.410(a)-3 - Minimum age and service conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2012-04-01 2011-04-01 true Minimum age and service conditions. 1.410(a)-3...(a)-3 Minimum age and service conditions. (a) General rule. Except as provided by paragraph (b) or (c... of— (1) Age 25. The date on which the employee attains the age of 25; or (2) One year of service. The...

26 CFR 1.410(a)-3 - Minimum age and service conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Minimum age and service conditions. 1.410(a)-3...(a)-3 Minimum age and service conditions. (a) General rule. Except as provided by paragraph (b) or (c... of— (1) Age 25. The date on which the employee attains the age of 25; or (2) One year of service. The...

26 CFR 1.410(a)-3 - Minimum age and service conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Minimum age and service conditions. 1.410(a)-3...(a)-3 Minimum age and service conditions. (a) General rule. Except as provided by paragraph (b) or (c... of— (1) Age 25. The date on which the employee attains the age of 25; or (2) One year of service. The...

Risk estimation using probability machines

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

Risk estimation using probability machines.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Abhijit; Szymczak, Silke; Moore, Jason H; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Malley, James D

2014-03-01

Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a "risk machine", will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from.

Probability and predictors of relapse to smoking: Results of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC)

PubMed Central

García-Rodríguez, Olaya; Secades-Villa, Roberto; Flórez-Salamanca, Ludwing; Okuda, Mayumi; Liu, Shang-Min; Blanco, Carlos

2013-01-01

Background The goal of this study was to estimate rates of relapse to smoking in the community and to identify predictors of relapse. Methods Data were drawn from the Waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the probability of relapse at Wave 2 among individuals who were abstinent at Wave 1 given length of abstinence as well as the presence of several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and substance use-related variables at Wave 1. Results The risk for relapse among individuals who had been abstinent for 12 months or less at the baseline assessment was above 50%. Among individuals who had been abstinent for over a year, risk of relapse decreased hyperbolically as a function of time, and stabilized around 10% after 30 years of abstinence. Although several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and tobacco-related variables predicted relapse in univariate analyses, only younger age at cessation and shorter duration of abstinence independently predicted risk of relapse in multivariable analyses. Conclusions The first year after a quit attempt constitutes the period of highest risk for relapse. Although the risk for relapse decreases over time, it never fully disappears. Furthermore, younger age at smoking cessation also increases the risk for relapse. This information may help develop more targeted and effective relapse prevention programs. PMID:23570817

Automatic Sleep Stage Determination by Multi-Valued Decision Making Based on Conditional Probability with Optimal Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bei; Sugi, Takenao; Wang, Xingyu; Nakamura, Masatoshi

Data for human sleep study may be affected by internal and external influences. The recorded sleep data contains complex and stochastic factors, which increase the difficulties for the computerized sleep stage determination techniques to be applied for clinical practice. The aim of this study is to develop an automatic sleep stage determination system which is optimized for variable sleep data. The main methodology includes two modules: expert knowledge database construction and automatic sleep stage determination. Visual inspection by a qualified clinician is utilized to obtain the probability density function of parameters during the learning process of expert knowledge database construction. Parameter selection is introduced in order to make the algorithm flexible. Automatic sleep stage determination is manipulated based on conditional probability. The result showed close agreement comparing with the visual inspection by clinician. The developed system can meet the customized requirements in hospitals and institutions.

Solving probability reasoning based on DNA strand displacement and probability modules.

PubMed

Zhang, Qiang; Wang, Xiaobiao; Wang, Xiaojun; Zhou, Changjun

2017-12-01

In computation biology, DNA strand displacement technology is used to simulate the computation process and has shown strong computing ability. Most researchers use it to solve logic problems, but it is only rarely used in probabilistic reasoning. To process probabilistic reasoning, a conditional probability derivation model and total probability model based on DNA strand displacement were established in this paper. The models were assessed through the game "read your mind." It has been shown to enable the application of probabilistic reasoning in genetic diagnosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Injury Rates in Age-Only Versus Age-and-Weight Playing Standard Conditions in American Youth Football

PubMed Central

Kerr, Zachary Y.; Marshall, Stephen W.; Simon, Janet E.; Hayden, Ross; Snook, Erin M.; Dodge, Thomas; Gallo, Joseph A.; Valovich McLeod, Tamara C.; Mensch, James; Murphy, Joseph M.; Nittoli, Vincent C.; Dompier, Thomas P.; Ragan, Brian; Yeargin, Susan W.; Parsons, John T.

2015-01-01

Background: American youth football leagues are typically structured using either age-only (AO) or age-and-weight (AW) playing standard conditions. These playing standard conditions group players by age in the former condition and by a combination of age and weight in the latter condition. However, no study has systematically compared injury risk between these 2 playing standards. Purpose: To compare injury rates between youth tackle football players in the AO and AW playing standard conditions. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Methods: Athletic trainers evaluated and recorded injuries at each practice and game during the 2012 and 2013 football seasons. Players (age, 5-14 years) were drawn from 13 recreational leagues across 6 states. The sample included 4092 athlete-seasons (AW, 2065; AO, 2027) from 210 teams (AW, 106; O, 104). Injury rate ratios (RRs) with 95% CIs were used to compare the playing standard conditions. Multivariate Poisson regression was used to estimate RRs adjusted for residual effects of age and clustering by team and league. There were 4 endpoints of interest: (1) any injury, (2) non–time loss (NTL) injuries only, (3) time loss (TL) injuries only, and (4) concussions only. Results: Over 2 seasons, the cohort accumulated 1475 injuries and 142,536 athlete-exposures (AEs). The most common injuries were contusions (34.4%), ligament sprains (16.3%), concussions (9.6%), and muscle strains (7.8%). The overall injury rate for both playing standard conditions combined was 10.3 per 1000 AEs (95% CI, 9.8-10.9). The TL injury, NTL injury, and concussion rates in both playing standard conditions combined were 3.1, 7.2, and 1.0 per 1000 AEs, respectively. In multivariate Poisson regression models controlling for age, team, and league, no differences were found between playing standard conditions in the overall injury rate (RRoverall, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.4-2.6). Rates for the other 3 endpoints were also similar (RRNTL, 1.1 [95% CI, 0

A probability space for quantum models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmens, L. F.

2017-06-01

A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

2004-01-01

We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

2007-01-01

Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

Performance of bolted closure joint elastomers under cask aging conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verst, C.; Sindelar, R.; Skidmore, E.

The bolted closure joint of a bare spent fuel cask is susceptible to age-related degradation and potential loss of confinement function under long-term storage conditions. Elastomeric seals, a component of the joint typically used to facilitate leak testing of the primary seal that includes the metallic seal and bolting, is susceptible to degradation over time by several mechanisms, principally via thermo-oxidation, stress-relaxation, and radiolytic degradation under time and temperature condition. Irradiation and thermal exposure testing and evaluation of an ethylene-propylene diene monomer (EPDM) elastomeric seal material similar to that used in the CASTOR® V/21 cask for a matrix of temperaturemore » and radiation exposure conditions relevant to the cask extended storage conditions, and development of semiempirical predictive models for loss of sealing force is in progress. A special insert was developed to allow Compressive Stress Relaxation (CSR) measurements before and after the irradiation and/or thermal exposure without unloading the elastomer. A condition of the loss of sealing force for the onset of leakage was suggested. The experimentation and modeling being performed could enable acquisition of extensive coupled aging data as well as an estimation of the timeframe when loss of sealing function under aging (temperature/radiation) conditions may occur.« less

Conditional probability distribution function of "energy transfer rate" (PDF(ɛ|PVI)) as compared with its counterpart of temperature (PDF(T|PVI)) at the same condition of fluctuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Jiansen; Wang, Yin; Pei, Zhongtian; Zhang, Lei; Tu, Chuanyi

2017-04-01

Energy transfer rate of turbulence is not uniform everywhere but suggested to follow a certain distribution, e.g., lognormal distribution (Kolmogorov 1962). The inhomogeneous transfer rate leads to emergence of intermittency, which may be identified with some parameter, e.g., normalized partial variance increments (PVI) (Greco et al., 2009). Large PVI of magnetic field fluctuations are found to have a temperature distribution with the median and mean values higher than that for small PVI level (Osman et al., 2012). However, there is a large proportion of overlap between temperature distributions associated with the smaller and larger PVIs. So it is recognized that only PVI cannot fully determine the temperature, since the one-to-one mapping relationship does not exist. One may be curious about the reason responsible for the considerable overlap of conditional temperature distribution for different levels of PVI. Usually the hotter plasma with higher temperature is speculated to be heated more with more dissipation of turbulence energy corresponding to more energy cascading rate, if the temperature fluctuation of the eigen wave mode is not taken into account. To explore the statistical relationship between turbulence cascading and plasma thermal state, we aim to study and reveal, for the first time, the conditional probability function of "energy transfer rate" under different levels of PVI condition (PDF(ɛ|PVI)), and compare it with the conditional probability function of temperature. The conditional probability distribution function, PDF(ɛ|PVI), is derived from PDF(PVI|ɛ)·PDF(ɛ)/PDF(PVI) according to the Bayesian theorem. PDF(PVI) can be obtained directly from the data. PDF(ɛ) is derived from the conjugate-gradient inversion of PDF(PVI) by assuming reasonably that PDF(δB|σ) is a Gaussian distribution, where PVI=|δB|/ σ and σ ( ɛι)1/3. PDF(ɛ) can also be acquired from fitting PDF(δB) with an integral function ∫PDF(δB|σ)PDF(σ)d σ. As a result

Conservative Analytical Collision Probabilities for Orbital Formation Flying

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell

2004-01-01

The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via Intersymbol Dither Performance Under Multiple Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government . AFIT/GE/ENG/09-23 Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via...21 D random variable governing the distribution of dither values 21 p (ct) D (t) probability density function of the...potential performance loss of a non-cooperative receiver compared to a cooperative receiver designed to account for ISI and multipath. 1.3 Thesis

Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via Intersymbol Dither Performance Under Multipath Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government . AFIT/GE/ENG/09-23 Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via...21 D random variable governing the distribution of dither values 21 p (ct) D (t) probability density function of the...potential performance loss of a non-cooperative receiver compared to a cooperative receiver designed to account for ISI and multipath. 1.3 Thesis

26 CFR 1.410(a)-4 - Maximum age conditions and time of participation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2012-04-01 2011-04-01 true Maximum age conditions and time of participation.... § 1.410(a)-4 Maximum age conditions and time of participation. (a) Maximum age conditions—(1) General...) if the plan excludes from participation (on the basis of age) an employee who has attained an age...

26 CFR 1.410(a)-4 - Maximum age conditions and time of participation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Maximum age conditions and time of participation.... § 1.410(a)-4 Maximum age conditions and time of participation. (a) Maximum age conditions—(1) General...) if the plan excludes from participation (on the basis of age) an employee who has attained an age...

26 CFR 1.410(a)-4 - Maximum age conditions and time of participation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Maximum age conditions and time of participation... Maximum age conditions and time of participation. (a) Maximum age conditions—(1) General rule. A plan is... excludes from participation (on the basis of age) an employee who has attained an age specified by the plan...

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability.

PubMed

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

PubMed Central

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Background Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. Method We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. Results When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Conclusions Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing. PMID:27004080

Handwriting, Visuomotor Integration, and Neurological Condition at School Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Hoorn, Jessika F.; Maathuis, Carel G. B.; Peters, Lieke H. J.; Hadders-Algra, Mijna

2010-01-01

Aim: The study investigated the relationships between handwriting, visuomotor integration, and neurological condition. We paid particular attention to the presence of minor neurological dysfunction (MND). Method : Participants were 200 children (131 males, 69 females; age range 8-13y) of whom 118 received mainstream education (mean age 10y 5mo, SD…

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ANALYSIS APPROACH FOR IDENTIFYING BIOLOGICAL THRESHOLD OF IMPACT FOR SEDIMENTATION: APPICATION TO FRESHWATER STREAMS IN OREGON COAST RANGE ECOREGION

EPA Science Inventory

A conditional probability analysis (CPA) approach has been developed for identifying biological thresholds of impact for use in the development of geographic-specific water quality criteria for protection of aquatic life. This approach expresses the threshold as the likelihood ...

The role of probabilities in physics.

PubMed

Le Bellac, Michel

2012-09-01

Although modern physics was born in the XVIIth century as a fully deterministic theory in the form of Newtonian mechanics, the use of probabilistic arguments turned out later on to be unavoidable. Three main situations can be distinguished. (1) When the number of degrees of freedom is very large, on the order of Avogadro's number, a detailed dynamical description is not possible, and in fact not useful: we do not care about the velocity of a particular molecule in a gas, all we need is the probability distribution of the velocities. This statistical description introduced by Maxwell and Boltzmann allows us to recover equilibrium thermodynamics, gives a microscopic interpretation of entropy and underlies our understanding of irreversibility. (2) Even when the number of degrees of freedom is small (but larger than three) sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics makes determinism irrelevant in practice, because we cannot control the initial conditions with infinite accuracy. Although die tossing is in principle predictable, the approach to chaotic dynamics in some limit implies that our ignorance of initial conditions is translated into a probabilistic description: each face comes up with probability 1/6. (3) As is well-known, quantum mechanics is incompatible with determinism. However, quantum probabilities differ in an essential way from the probabilities introduced previously: it has been shown from the work of John Bell that quantum probabilities are intrinsic and cannot be given an ignorance interpretation based on a hypothetical deeper level of description. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neighborhood Conditions and Psychosocial Outcomes Among Middle-Aged African Americans.

PubMed

Tabet, Maya; Sanders, Erin A; Schootman, Mario; Chang, Jen Jen; Wolinsky, Fredric D; Malmstrom, Theodore K; Miller, Douglas K

2017-04-01

We examined associations between observed neighborhood conditions (good/adverse) and psychosocial outcomes (stress, depressive symptoms, resilience, and sense of control) among middle-aged and older African Americans. The sample included 455 middle-aged and older African Americans examined in Wave 10 of the African American Health (AAH) study. Linear regression was adjusted for attrition, self-selection into neighborhoods, and potential confounders, and stratified by the duration at current address (<5 vs ≥5 years) because of its hypothesized role as an effect modifier. Among individuals who lived at their current address for ≥5 years, residing in neighborhoods with adverse versus good conditions was associated with significantly less stress (standardized β = -0.18; P = .002) and depressive symptoms (standardized β = -0.12; P = .048). Among those who lived at their current address for <5 years, residing in neighborhoods with adverse versus good conditions was not significantly associated with stress (standardized β = 0.18; P = .305) or depressive symptoms (standardized β = 0.36; P = .080). Neighborhood conditions appear to have significant, complex associations with psychosocial factors among middle-aged and older African Americans. This holds important policy implications, especially since adverse neighborhood conditions may still result in adverse physical health outcomes in individuals with >5 years at current residence despite being associated with better psychosocial outcomes.

A developmental study of risky decisions on the cake gambling task: age and gender analyses of probability estimation and reward evaluation.

PubMed

Van Leijenhorst, Linda; Westenberg, P Michiel; Crone, Eveline A

2008-01-01

Decision making, or the process of choosing between competing courses of actions, is highly sensitive to age-related change, showing development throughout adolescence. In this study, we tested whether the development of decision making under risk is related to changes in risk-estimation abilities. Participants (N = 93) between ages 8-30 performed a child friendly gambling task, the Cake Gambling task, which was inspired by the Cambridge Gambling Task (Rogers et al., 1999), which has previously been shown to be sensitive to orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) damage. The task allowed comparisons of the contributions to risk perception of (1) the ability to estimate probabilities and (2) evaluate rewards. Adult performance patterns were highly similar to those found in previous reports, showing increased risk taking with increases in the probability of winning and the magnitude of potential reward. Behavioral patterns in children and adolescents did not differ from adult patterns, showing a similar ability for probability estimation and reward evaluation. These data suggest that participants 8 years and older perform like adults in a gambling task, previously shown to depend on the OFC in which all the information needed to make an advantageous decision is given on each trial and no information needs to be inferred from previous behavior. Interestingly, at all ages, females were more risk-averse than males. These results suggest that the increase in real-life risky behavior that is seen in adolescence is not a consequence of changes in risk perception abilities. The findings are discussed in relation to theories about the protracted development of the prefrontal cortex.

Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Mosher, David C.; Shipp, Craig; Moscardelli, Lorena; Chaytor, Jason D.; Baxter, Christopher D. P.; Lee, Homa J.; Urgeles, Roger

2010-01-01

The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual events as well as the open time intervals before and after the observed sequence of landslides. For observed sequences of submarine landslides, we typically only have the age date of the youngest event and possibly of a seismic horizon that lies below the oldest event in a landslide sequence. We use an empirical Bayes analysis based on the Poisson-Gamma conjugate prior model specifically applied to the landslide probability problem. This model assumes that landslide events as imaged in geophysical data are independent and occur in time according to a Poisson distribution characterized by a rate parameter λ. With this method, we are able to estimate the most likely value of λ and, importantly, the range of uncertainty in this estimate. Examples considered include landslide sequences observed in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and in Port Valdez, Alaska. We confirm that given the uncertainties of age dating that landslide complexes can be treated as single events by performing statistical test of age dates representing the main failure episode of the Holocene Storegga landslide complex.

Time-dependent landslide probability mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Russell H.; Bernknopf, Richard L.; ,

1993-01-01

Case studies where time of failure is known for rainfall-triggered debris flows can be used to estimate the parameters of a hazard model in which the probability of failure is a function of time. As an example, a time-dependent function for the conditional probability of a soil slip is estimated from independent variables representing hillside morphology, approximations of material properties, and the duration and rate of rainfall. If probabilities are calculated in a GIS (geomorphic information system ) environment, the spatial distribution of the result for any given hour can be displayed on a map. Although the probability levels in this example are uncalibrated, the method offers a potential for evaluating different physical models and different earth-science variables by comparing the map distribution of predicted probabilities with inventory maps for different areas and different storms. If linked with spatial and temporal socio-economic variables, this method could be used for short-term risk assessment.

Does the probability of developing ocular trauma-related visual deficiency differ between genders?

PubMed

Blanco-Hernández, Dulce Milagros Razo; Valencia-Aguirre, Jessica Daniela; Lima-Gómez, Virgilio

2011-01-01

Ocular trauma affects males more often than females, but the impact of this condition regarding visual prognosis is unknown. We undertook this study to compare the probability of developing ocular trauma-related visual deficiency between genders, as estimated by the ocular trauma score (OTS). We designed an observational, retrospective, comparative, cross-sectional and open-label study. Female patients aged ≥6 years with ocular trauma were included and matched by age and ocular wall status with male patients at a 1:2 male/female ratio. Initial trauma features and the probability of developing visual deficiency (best corrected visual acuity <20/40) 6 months after the injury, as estimated by the OTS, were compared between genders. The proportion and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of visual deficiency 6 months after the injury were estimated. Ocular trauma features and the probability of developing visual deficiency were compared between genders (χ(2) and Fisher's exact test); p value <0.05 was considered significant. Included were 399 eyes (133 from females and 266 from males). Mean age of patients was 25.7 ± 14.6 years. Statistical differences existed in the proportion of zone III in closed globe trauma (p = 0.01) and types A (p = 0.04) and type B (p = 0.02) in open globe trauma. The distribution of the OTS categories was similar for both genders (category 5: p = 0.9); the probability of developing visual deficiency was 32.6% (95% CI = 24.6 to 40.5) in females and 33.2% (95% CI = 27.6 to 38.9) in males (p = 0.9). The probability of developing ocular trauma-related visual deficiency was similar for both genders. The same standard is required.

Probability: A Matter of Life and Death

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hassani, Mehdi; Kippen, Rebecca; Mills, Terence

2016-01-01

Life tables are mathematical tables that document probabilities of dying and life expectancies at different ages in a society. Thus, the life table contains some essential features of the health of a population. Probability is often regarded as a difficult branch of mathematics. Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts…

Effect of in-situ aged and fresh biochar on soil hydraulic conditions and microbial C use under drought conditions.

PubMed

Paetsch, Lydia; Mueller, Carsten W; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; von Lützow, Margit; Girardin, Cyril; Rumpel, Cornelia

2018-05-01

Biochar (BC) amendments may be suitable to increase the ecosystems resistance to drought due to their positive effects on soil water retention and availability. We investigated the effect of BC in situ ageing on water availability and microbial parameters of a grassland soil. We used soil containing 13 C labeled BC and determined its water holding capacity, microbial biomass and activity during a 3 months incubation under optimum and drought conditions. Our incubation experiment comprised three treatments: soil without BC (Control), soil containing aged BC (BC aged ) and soil containing fresh BC (BC fresh ), under optimum soil water (pF 1.8) and drought conditions (pF 3.5). Under optimum water as well as drought conditions, soils containing BC showed higher soil organic carbon (SOC) mineralization as compared to control soil. Moreover, BC effects on the soil water regime increase upon in situ aging. Native SOC mineralization increased most for soils containing BC aged . The BC aged led to improved C use under drought as compared to the other treatments. We conclude that BC addition to soils can ameliorate their water regime, especially under drought conditions. This beneficial effect of BC increases upon its aging, which also improved native substrate availability.

Comparing the Relationship Between Age and Length of Disability Across Common Chronic Conditions

PubMed Central

Jetha, Arif; Besen, Elyssa; Smith, Peter M.

2016-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the association between age and disability length across common chronic conditions. Methods: Analysis of 39,915 nonwork-related disability claims with a diagnosis of arthritis, diabetes, hypertension, coronary artery disease, depression, low back pain, chronic pulmonary disease, or cancer. Ordinary least squares regression models examined age-length of disability association across chronic conditions. Results: Arthritis (76.6 days), depression (63.2 days), and cancer (64.9 days) were associated with longest mean disability lengths; hypertension was related to shortest disability lengths (41.5 days). Across chronic conditions, older age was significantly associated with longer work disability. The age–length of disability association was most significant for chronic pulmonary disease and cancer. The relationship between age and length of work disability was linear among most chronic conditions. Conclusions: Work disability prevention strategies should consider both employee age and chronic condition diagnosis. PMID:27164446

Myelin content changes in probable Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment: Associations with age and severity of neuropsychiatric impairment.

PubMed

Kavroulakis, Eleftherios; Simos, Panagiotis G; Kalaitzakis, Georgios; Maris, Thomas G; Karageorgou, Dimitra; Zaganas, Ioannis; Panagiotakis, Simeon; Basta, Maria; Vgontzas, Alexandros; Papadaki, Efrosini

2018-05-01

Existing indices of white matter integrity such as fractional anisotropy and magnetization transfer ratio may not provide optimal specificity to myelin content. In contrast, myelin water fraction (MWF) derived from the multiecho T 2 relaxation time technique may serve as a more direct measure of myelin content. The goal of the present study was to identify markers of regional demyelination in patients with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in relation to age and severity of neuropsychiatric impairment. The sample included patients diagnosed with probable AD (n = 25) or MCI (n = 43), and cognitively intact elderly controls (n = 33). Long T 2 , short T 2 , and MWF values were measured with a 1.5T scanner in periventricular and deep normal-appearing white matter (NAWM), serving as indices of intra/extracellular water content and myelin content. A comprehensive neuropsychological and neuropsychiatric assessment was administered to all participants. AD patients displayed higher age-adjusted long and short T 2 values and reduced MWF values in left temporal/parietal and bilateral periventricular NAWM than controls and MCI patients (P < 0.004; one-way analysis of covariance [ANCOVA] tests). Short T 2 /MWF values in temporal, frontal, and periventricular NAWM of controls and/or MCI patients were significantly associated with episodic and semantic memory performance and depressive symptomatology (P < 0.004; partial correlation indices). The impact of age on memory performance was significantly (P < 0.01; mediated linear regression analyses) mediated by age-related changes in short T 2 and MWF values in these regions. Age-related demyelination is associated with memory impairment (especially in prodromal dementia states) and symptoms of depression in an anatomically specific manner. 1 Technical Efficacy: Stage 3 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2018;47:1359-1372. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

The Cumulative Probability of Arrest by Age 28 Years in the United States by Disability Status, Race/Ethnicity, and Gender.

PubMed

McCauley, Erin J

2017-12-01

To estimate the cumulative probability (c) of arrest by age 28 years in the United States by disability status, race/ethnicity, and gender. I estimated cumulative probabilities through birth cohort life tables with data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997. Estimates demonstrated that those with disabilities have a higher cumulative probability of arrest (c = 42.65) than those without (c = 29.68). The risk was disproportionately spread across races/ethnicities, with Blacks with disabilities experiencing the highest cumulative probability of arrest (c = 55.17) and Whites without disabilities experiencing the lowest (c = 27.55). Racial/ethnic differences existed by gender as well. There was a similar distribution of disability types across race/ethnicity, suggesting that the racial/ethnic differences in arrest may stem from racial/ethnic inequalities as opposed to differential distribution of disability types. The experience of arrest for those with disabilities was higher than expected. Police officers should understand how disabilities may affect compliance and other behaviors, and likewise how implicit bias and structural racism may affect reactions and actions of officers and the systems they work within in ways that create inequities.

Collapse susceptibility mapping in karstified gypsum terrain (Sivas basin - Turkey) by conditional probability, logistic regression, artificial neural network models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilmaz, Isik; Keskin, Inan; Marschalko, Marian; Bednarik, Martin

2010-05-01

This study compares the GIS based collapse susceptibility mapping methods such as; conditional probability (CP), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) applied in gypsum rock masses in Sivas basin (Turkey). Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was first constructed using GIS software. Collapse-related factors, directly or indirectly related to the causes of collapse occurrence, such as distance from faults, slope angle and aspect, topographical elevation, distance from drainage, topographic wetness index- TWI, stream power index- SPI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) by means of vegetation cover, distance from roads and settlements were used in the collapse susceptibility analyses. In the last stage of the analyses, collapse susceptibility maps were produced from CP, LR and ANN models, and they were then compared by means of their validations. Area Under Curve (AUC) values obtained from all three methodologies showed that the map obtained from ANN model looks like more accurate than the other models, and the results also showed that the artificial neural networks is a usefull tool in preparation of collapse susceptibility map and highly compatible with GIS operating features. Key words: Collapse; doline; susceptibility map; gypsum; GIS; conditional probability; logistic regression; artificial neural networks.

Experiences with physical conditioning programs in middle-aged men

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuster, B.; Stanley, E.

1969-01-01

Long term effects of physical exercise and conditioning in the prevention and treatment of coronary heart disease are studied. Some aspects of the problem are outlined and difficulties encountered in a group of middle aged business executives using a carefully prescribed, but non-regimented and loosely supervised conditioning program employing commonly used forms of exercise (bicycling and jogging), are described.

Conservative Analytical Collision Probability for Design of Orbital Formations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell

2004-01-01

The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

Men who work at age 70 or older.

PubMed

Ozawa, Martha N; Lum, Terry Y

2005-01-01

The federal policy on older workers has shifted from the encouragement of early withdrawal from the labor force to the encouragement of continuous participation in the labor force. In this light, it is instructive to investigate the backgrounds of elderly people who work at age 70 or older. This article presents the findings of a study, using data from the 1993 Asset and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old Study, that investigated the effects of health, economic conditions (net worth, employer-provided pensions, and supplemental medical insurance coverage), education, and spouse's work status on the probability of working among men aged 70 or older. The study addressed the probability of working, the probability of working fulltime and of working part-time, and the probability of being self-employed and of being employed by others. Implications for policy are discussed.

Using radar imagery for crop discrimination: a statistical and conditional probability study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haralick, R.M.; Caspall, F.; Simonett, D.S.

1970-01-01

A number of the constraints with which remote sensing must contend in crop studies are outlined. They include sensor, identification accuracy, and congruencing constraints; the nature of the answers demanded of the sensor system; and the complex temporal variances of crops in large areas. Attention is then focused on several methods which may be used in the statistical analysis of multidimensional remote sensing data.Crop discrimination for radar K-band imagery is investigated by three methods. The first one uses a Bayes decision rule, the second a nearest-neighbor spatial conditional probability approach, and the third the standard statistical techniques of cluster analysis and principal axes representation.Results indicate that crop type and percent of cover significantly affect the strength of the radar return signal. Sugar beets, corn, and very bare ground are easily distinguishable, sorghum, alfalfa, and young wheat are harder to distinguish. Distinguishability will be improved if the imagery is examined in time sequence so that changes between times of planning, maturation, and harvest provide additional discriminant tools. A comparison between radar and photography indicates that radar performed surprisingly well in crop discrimination in western Kansas and warrants further study.

Chronology of Postglacial Eruptive Activity and Calculation of Eruption Probabilities for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.

2007-01-01

Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.

Performance of asphaltic concrete incorporating styrene butadiene rubber subjected to varying aging condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salah, Faisal Mohammed; Jaya, Ramadhansyah Putra; Mohamed, Azman; Hassan, Norhidayah Abdul; Rosni, Nurul Najihah Mad; Mohamed, Abdullahi Ali; Agussabti

2017-12-01

The influence of styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) on asphaltic concrete properties at different aging conditions was presented in this study. These aging conditions were named as un-aged, short-term, and long-term aging. The conventional asphalt binder of penetration grade 60/70 was used in this work. Four different levels of SBR addition were employed (i.e., 0 %, 1 %, 3 %, and 5 % by binder weight). Asphalt concrete mixes were prepared at selected optimum asphalt content (5 %). The performance was evaluated based on Marshall Stability, resilient modulus, and dynamic creep tests. Results indicated the improving stability and permanent deformation characteristics that the mixes modified with SBR polymer have under aging conditions. The result also showed that the stability, resilient modulus, and dynamic creep tests have the highest rates compared to the short-term aging and un-aged samples. Thus, the use of 5 % SBR can produce more durable asphalt concrete mixtures with better serviceability.

Rethinking the learning of belief network probabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Musick, R.

Belief networks are a powerful tool for knowledge discovery that provide concise, understandable probabilistic models of data. There are methods grounded in probability theory to incrementally update the relationships described by the belief network when new information is seen, to perform complex inferences over any set of variables in the data, to incorporate domain expertise and prior knowledge into the model, and to automatically learn the model from data. This paper concentrates on part of the belief network induction problem, that of learning the quantitative structure (the conditional probabilities), given the qualitative structure. In particular, the current practice of rotemore » learning the probabilities in belief networks can be significantly improved upon. We advance the idea of applying any learning algorithm to the task of conditional probability learning in belief networks, discuss potential benefits, and show results of applying neutral networks and other algorithms to a medium sized car insurance belief network. The results demonstrate from 10 to 100% improvements in model error rates over the current approaches.« less

The Impact of Advanced Age on Driving Safety in Adults with Medical Conditions.

PubMed

Moon, Sanghee; Ranchet, Maud; Akinwuntan, Abiodun Emmanuel; Tant, Mark; Carr, David Brian; Raji, Mukaila Ajiboye; Devos, Hannes

2018-01-01

Adults aged 85 and older, often referred to as the oldest-old, are the fastest-growing segment of the population. The rapidly increasing number of older adults with chronic and multiple medical conditions poses challenges regarding their driving safety. To investigate the effect of advanced age on driving safety in drivers with medical conditions. We categorized 3,425 drivers with preexisting medical conditions into four age groups: middle-aged (55-64 years, n = 1,386), young-old (65-74 years, n = 1,013), old-old (75-84 years, n = 803), or oldest-old (85 years and older, n = 223). All underwent a formal driving evaluation. The outcome measures included fitness to drive recommendation by the referring physician, comprehensive fitness to drive decision from an official driving evaluation center, history of motor vehicle crashes (MVCs), and history of traffic violations. The oldest-old reported more cardiopulmonary and visual conditions, but less neurological conditions than the old-old. Compared to the middle-aged, the oldest-old were more likely to be considered unfit to drive by the referring physicians (odds ratio [OR] = 4.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.20-9.10) and by the official driving evaluation center (OR = 2.74, 95% CI 1.87-4.03). The oldest-old reported more MVCs (OR = 2.79, 95% CI 1.88-4.12) compared to the middle-aged. Advanced age adversely affected driving safety outcomes. The oldest-old are a unique age group with medical conditions known to interfere with safe driving. Driving safety strategies should particularly target the oldest-old since they are the fastest-growing group and their increased frailty is associated with severe or fatal injuries due to MVCs. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Effects of aging on pointing movements under restricted visual feedback conditions.

PubMed

Zhang, Liancun; Yang, Jiajia; Inai, Yoshinobu; Huang, Qiang; Wu, Jinglong

2015-04-01

The goal of this study was to investigate the effects of aging on pointing movements under restricted visual feedback of hand movement and target location. Fifteen young subjects and fifteen elderly subjects performed pointing movements under four restricted visual feedback conditions that included full visual feedback of hand movement and target location (FV), no visual feedback of hand movement and target location condition (NV), no visual feedback of hand movement (NM) and no visual feedback of target location (NT). This study suggested that Fitts' law applied for pointing movements of the elderly adults under different visual restriction conditions. Moreover, significant main effect of aging on movement times has been found in all four tasks. The peripheral and central changes may be the key factors for these different characteristics. Furthermore, no significant main effects of age on the mean accuracy rate under condition of restricted visual feedback were found. The present study suggested that the elderly subjects made a very similar use of the available sensory information as young subjects under restricted visual feedback conditions. In addition, during the pointing movement, information about the hand's movement was more useful than information about the target location for young and elderly subjects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices

PubMed Central

Schulreich, Stefan; Heussen, Yana G.; Gerhardt, Holger; Mohr, Peter N. C.; Binkofski, Ferdinand C.; Koelsch, Stefan; Heekeren, Hauke R.

2014-01-01

We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to a different kind of music—happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones—and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the “happy” than in the “sad” and “random tones” conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants' choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: in the “happy” condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the “sad” and “random tones” conditions. Moreover, elevation correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting. PMID:24432007

Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices.

PubMed

Schulreich, Stefan; Heussen, Yana G; Gerhardt, Holger; Mohr, Peter N C; Binkofski, Ferdinand C; Koelsch, Stefan; Heekeren, Hauke R

2014-01-07

We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to a different kind of music-happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones-and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the "happy" than in the "sad" and "random tones" conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants' choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: in the "happy" condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the "sad" and "random tones" conditions. Moreover, elevation correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting.

Probable impact of age and hypoxia on proliferation and microRNA expression profile of bone marrow-derived human mesenchymal stem cells

PubMed Central

Mohd Ali, Norlaily; Boo, Lily; Yeap, Swee Keong; Ky, Huynh; Satharasinghe, Dilan A.; Liew, Woan Charn; Cheong, Soon Keng; Kamarul, Tunku

2016-01-01

Decline in the therapeutic potential of bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) is often seen with older donors as compared to young. Although hypoxia is known as an approach to improve the therapeutic potential of MSC in term of cell proliferation and differentiation capacity, its effects on MSC from aged donors have not been well studied. To evaluate the influence of hypoxia on different age groups, MSC from young (<30 years) and aged (>60 years) donors were expanded under hypoxic (5% O2) and normal (20% O2) culture conditions. MSC from old donors exhibited a reduction in proliferation rate and differentiation potential together with the accumulation of senescence features compared to that of young donors. However, MSC cultured under hypoxic condition showed enhanced self-renewing and proliferation capacity in both age groups as compared to normal condition. Bioinformatic analysis of the gene ontology (GO) and KEGG pathway under hypoxic culture condition identified hypoxia-inducible miRNAs that were found to target transcriptional activity leading to enhanced cell proliferation, migration as well as decrease in growth arrest and apoptosis through the activation of multiple signaling pathways. Overall, differentially expressed miRNA provided additional information to describe the biological changes of young and aged MSCs expansion under hypoxic culture condition at the molecular level. Based on our findings, the therapeutic potential hierarchy of MSC according to donor’s age group and culture conditions can be categorized in the following order: young (hypoxia) > young (normoxia) > old aged (hypoxia) > old aged (normoxia). PMID:26788424

Naive Probability: Model-Based Estimates of Unique Events.

PubMed

Khemlani, Sangeet S; Lotstein, Max; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

2015-08-01

We describe a dual-process theory of how individuals estimate the probabilities of unique events, such as Hillary Clinton becoming U.S. President. It postulates that uncertainty is a guide to improbability. In its computer implementation, an intuitive system 1 simulates evidence in mental models and forms analog non-numerical representations of the magnitude of degrees of belief. This system has minimal computational power and combines evidence using a small repertoire of primitive operations. It resolves the uncertainty of divergent evidence for single events, for conjunctions of events, and for inclusive disjunctions of events, by taking a primitive average of non-numerical probabilities. It computes conditional probabilities in a tractable way, treating the given event as evidence that may be relevant to the probability of the dependent event. A deliberative system 2 maps the resulting representations into numerical probabilities. With access to working memory, it carries out arithmetical operations in combining numerical estimates. Experiments corroborated the theory's predictions. Participants concurred in estimates of real possibilities. They violated the complete joint probability distribution in the predicted ways, when they made estimates about conjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A and B), disjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A or B or both), and conditional probabilities P(A), P(B), P(B|A). They were faster to estimate the probabilities of compound propositions when they had already estimated the probabilities of each of their components. We discuss the implications of these results for theories of probabilistic reasoning. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Impact of soybean aging conditions on tofu sensory characteristics and acceptance.

PubMed

Kamizake, Neide Kiyoko Kondo; Silva, Lilian Catarini Pereira; Prudencio, Sandra Helena

2018-02-01

Tofu from aged soybeans is of poor quality, mainly with respect to texture. Texture defects described in the literature are contradictory. No study has investigated all sensory properties simultaneously. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of soybean aging conditions [natural: ambient temperature and RH, 18 months, and accelerated: 30 °C, 84% relative humidity (RH), 6 months] on all of the sensory characteristics and the acceptance of tofu. Texture and color were also evaluated via an instrumental method. The control condition was -20 °C and 47% RH. Coodetec 214 and BRS 267 cultivars were studied. The effect of soybean accelerated aging on tofu sensory characteristics and acceptance was more pronounced compared to the natural condition. The two cultivars had a similar behavior. Tofu control exhibited a light, uniform and bright color, cohesive appearance, sweet aroma and flavor, as well as a firm and elastic texture. Tofu made from both aged cultivars showed a gray color with dark spots, a rough appearance, fermented aroma, rancid flavor, an astringent and bitter taste, a fracturable texture and adherence to the oral cavity after chewing. These characteristics of tofu from aged soybeans implied a low acceptance by consumers. Tofu from natural and accelerated aged soybeans has sensory attributes of appearance, as well as aroma, flavor and damaged texture, that are unacceptable by consumers. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

The effect of microscopic friction and size distributions on conditional probability distributions in soft particle packings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saitoh, Kuniyasu; Magnanimo, Vanessa; Luding, Stefan

2017-10-01

Employing two-dimensional molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of soft particles, we study their non-affine responses to quasi-static isotropic compression where the effects of microscopic friction between the particles in contact and particle size distributions are examined. To quantify complicated restructuring of force-chain networks under isotropic compression, we introduce the conditional probability distributions (CPDs) of particle overlaps such that a master equation for distribution of overlaps in the soft particle packings can be constructed. From our MD simulations, we observe that the CPDs are well described by q-Gaussian distributions, where we find that the correlation for the evolution of particle overlaps is suppressed by microscopic friction, while it significantly increases with the increase of poly-dispersity.

Psychiatric and Medical Conditions in Transition-Aged Individuals With ASD.

PubMed

Davignon, Meghan N; Qian, Yinge; Massolo, Maria; Croen, Lisa A

2018-04-01

Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have a variety of medical and psychiatric conditions and an increased use of health care services. There is limited information about the prevalence of psychiatric and medical conditions in adolescents and young adults with ASD. Our objective was to describe the frequency of medical and psychiatric conditions in a large population of diverse, insured transition-aged individuals with ASD. Participants included Kaiser Permanente Northern California members who were enrolled from 2013 to 2015 and who were 14 to 25 years old. Individuals with ASD ( n = 4123) were compared with peers with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder ( n = 20 615), diabetes mellitus ( n = 2156), and typical controls with neither condition ( n = 20 615). Over one-third (34%) of individuals with ASD had a co-occurring psychiatric condition; the most commonly reported medical conditions included infections (42%), obesity (25%), neurologic conditions (18%), allergy and/or immunologic conditions (16%), musculoskeletal conditions (15%), and gastrointestinal (11%) conditions. After controlling for sex, age, race, and duration of Kaiser Permanente Northern California membership, most psychiatric conditions were significantly more common in the ASD group than in each comparison group, and most medical conditions were significantly more common in the ASD group than in the attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and typical control groups but were similar to or significantly less common than the diabetes mellitus group. Although more research is needed to identify factors contributing to this excess burden of disease, there is a pressing need for all clinicians to approach ASD as a chronic health condition requiring regular follow-up and routine screening and treatment of medical and psychiatric issues. Copyright © 2018 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Lexicographic Probability, Conditional Probability, and Nonstandard Probability

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-11-11

1994; Hammond 1999; Kohlberg and Reny 1997; Kreps and Wilson 1982; Myerson 1986; Selten 1965; Selten 1975]). It also arises in the analysis of...sets of measure 0): BBD considered three; Kohlberg and Reny [1997] considered two others. It turns out that these notions are perhaps best understood...number of characterizations of solution concepts depend on independence (see, for example, [Battigalli 1996; Kohlberg and Reny 1997; Battigalli and

Quantum probability assignment limited by relativistic causality.

PubMed

Han, Yeong Deok; Choi, Taeseung

2016-03-14

Quantum theory has nonlocal correlations, which bothered Einstein, but found to satisfy relativistic causality. Correlation for a shared quantum state manifests itself, in the standard quantum framework, by joint probability distributions that can be obtained by applying state reduction and probability assignment that is called Born rule. Quantum correlations, which show nonlocality when the shared state has an entanglement, can be changed if we apply different probability assignment rule. As a result, the amount of nonlocality in quantum correlation will be changed. The issue is whether the change of the rule of quantum probability assignment breaks relativistic causality. We have shown that Born rule on quantum measurement is derived by requiring relativistic causality condition. This shows how the relativistic causality limits the upper bound of quantum nonlocality through quantum probability assignment.

High lifetime probability of screen-detected cervical abnormalities.

PubMed

Pankakoski, Maiju; Heinävaara, Sirpa; Sarkeala, Tytti; Anttila, Ahti

2017-12-01

Objective Regular screening and follow-up is an important key to cervical cancer prevention; however, screening inevitably detects mild or borderline abnormalities that would never progress to a more severe stage. We analysed the cumulative probability and recurrence of cervical abnormalities in the Finnish organized screening programme during a 22-year follow-up. Methods Screening histories were collected for 364,487 women born between 1950 and 1965. Data consisted of 1 207,017 routine screens and 88,143 follow-up screens between 1991 and 2012. Probabilities of cervical abnormalities by age were estimated using logistic regression and generalized estimating equations methodology. Results The probability of experiencing any abnormality at least once at ages 30-64 was 34.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 33.3-34.6%) . Probability was 5.4% (95% CI: 5.0-5.8%) for results warranting referral and 2.2% (95% CI: 2.0-2.4%) for results with histologically confirmed findings. Previous occurrences were associated with an increased risk of detecting new ones, specifically in older women. Conclusion A considerable proportion of women experience at least one abnormal screening result during their lifetime, and yet very few eventually develop an actual precancerous lesion. Re-evaluation of diagnostic criteria concerning mild abnormalities might improve the balance of harms and benefits of screening. Special monitoring of women with recurrent abnormalities especially at older ages may also be needed.

Oil-spill risk analysis: Cook inlet outer continental shelf lease sale 149. Volume 2: Conditional risk contour maps of seasonal conditional probabilities. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.; Anderson, C.M.

1994-08-01

The Federal Government has proposed to offer Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lands in Cook Inlet for oil and gas leasing. Because oil spills may occur from activities associated with offshore oil production, the Minerals Management Service conducts a formal risk assessment. In evaluating the significance of accidental oil spills, it is important to remember that the occurrence of such spills is fundamentally probabilistic. The effects of oil spills that could occur during oil and gas production must be considered. This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis conducted for the proposed Cook Inlet OCS Lease Sale 149. The objectivemore » of this analysis was to estimate relative risks associated with oil and gas production for the proposed lease sale. To aid the analysis, conditional risk contour maps of seasonal conditional probabilities of spill contact were generated for each environmental resource or land segment in the study area. This aspect is discussed in this volume of the two volume report.« less

Statistics concerning the Apollo command module water landing, including the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, sucessful impact, and body X-axis loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitnah, A. M.; Howes, D. B.

1971-01-01

Statistical information for the Apollo command module water landings is presented. This information includes the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, a successful impact, and body X-axis loads of various magnitudes.

Physiological condition of autumn-banded mallards and its relationship to hunting vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hepp, G.R.; Blohm, R.J.; Reynolds, R.E.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

1986-01-01

An important topic of waterfowl ecology concerns the relationship between the physiological condition of ducks during the nonbreeding season and fitness, i.e., survival and future reproductive success. We investigated this subject using direct band recovery records of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) banded in autumn (1 Oct-15 Dec) 1981-83 in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) [USA]. A condition index, weight (g)/wing length (mm), was calculated for each duck, and we tested whether condition of mallards at time of banding was related to their probability of recovery during the hunting season. In 3 years, 5,610 mallards were banded and there were 234 direct recoveries. Three binary regression model was used to test the relationship between recovery probability and condition. Likelihood-ratio tests were conducted to determine the most suitable model. For mallards banded in autumn there was a negative relationship between physical condition and the probability of recovery. Mallards in poor condition at the time of banding had a greater probability of being recovered during the hunting season. In general, this was true for all ages and sex classes; however, the strongest relationship occurred for adult males.

Probability, arrow of time and decoherence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciagaluppi, Guido

This paper relates both to the metaphysics of probability and to the physics of time asymmetry. Using the formalism of decoherent histories, it investigates whether intuitions about intrinsic time directedness that are often associated with probability can be justified in the context of no-collapse approaches to quantum mechanics. The standard (two-vector) approach to time symmetry in the decoherent histories literature is criticised, and an alternative approach is proposed, based on two decoherence conditions ('forwards' and 'backwards') within the one-vector formalism. In turn, considerations of forwards and backwards decoherence and of decoherence and recoherence suggest that a time-directed interpretation of probabilities, if adopted, should be both contingent and perspectival.

Risk, Reward, and Decision-Making in a Rodent Model of Cognitive Aging

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Ryan J.; Mitchell, Marci R.; Simon, Nicholas W.; Bañuelos, Cristina; Setlow, Barry; Bizon, Jennifer L.

2011-01-01

Impaired decision-making in aging can directly impact factors (financial security, health care) that are critical to maintaining quality of life and independence at advanced ages. Naturalistic rodent models mimic human aging in other cognitive domains, and afford the opportunity to parse the effects of age on discrete aspects of decision-making in a manner relatively uncontaminated by experiential factors. Young adult (5–7 months) and aged (23–25 months) male F344 rats were trained on a probability discounting task in which they made discrete-trial choices between a small certain reward (one food pellet) and a large but uncertain reward (two food pellets with varying probabilities of delivery ranging from 100 to 0%). Young rats chose the large reward when it was associated with a high probability of delivery and shifted to the small but certain reward as probability of the large reward decreased. As a group, aged rats performed comparably to young, but there was significantly greater variance among aged rats. One subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the small certain reward. This preference was maintained under conditions in which large reward delivery was also certain, suggesting decreased sensitivity to reward magnitude. In contrast, another subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the large reward at low probabilities of delivery. Interestingly, this subgroup also showed elevated preference for probabilistic rewards when reward magnitudes were equalized. Previous findings using this same aged study population described strongly attenuated discounting of delayed rewards with age, together suggesting that a subgroup of aged rats may have deficits associated with accounting for reward costs (i.e., delay or probability). These deficits in cost-accounting were dissociable from the age-related differences in sensitivity to reward magnitude, suggesting that aging influences multiple, distinct mechanisms that can impact cost�

Risk, reward, and decision-making in a rodent model of cognitive aging.

PubMed

Gilbert, Ryan J; Mitchell, Marci R; Simon, Nicholas W; Bañuelos, Cristina; Setlow, Barry; Bizon, Jennifer L

2011-01-01

Impaired decision-making in aging can directly impact factors (financial security, health care) that are critical to maintaining quality of life and independence at advanced ages. Naturalistic rodent models mimic human aging in other cognitive domains, and afford the opportunity to parse the effects of age on discrete aspects of decision-making in a manner relatively uncontaminated by experiential factors. Young adult (5-7 months) and aged (23-25 months) male F344 rats were trained on a probability discounting task in which they made discrete-trial choices between a small certain reward (one food pellet) and a large but uncertain reward (two food pellets with varying probabilities of delivery ranging from 100 to 0%). Young rats chose the large reward when it was associated with a high probability of delivery and shifted to the small but certain reward as probability of the large reward decreased. As a group, aged rats performed comparably to young, but there was significantly greater variance among aged rats. One subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the small certain reward. This preference was maintained under conditions in which large reward delivery was also certain, suggesting decreased sensitivity to reward magnitude. In contrast, another subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the large reward at low probabilities of delivery. Interestingly, this subgroup also showed elevated preference for probabilistic rewards when reward magnitudes were equalized. Previous findings using this same aged study population described strongly attenuated discounting of delayed rewards with age, together suggesting that a subgroup of aged rats may have deficits associated with accounting for reward costs (i.e., delay or probability). These deficits in cost-accounting were dissociable from the age-related differences in sensitivity to reward magnitude, suggesting that aging influences multiple, distinct mechanisms that can impact cost-benefit decision-making.

The transition probability and the probability for the left-most particle's position of the q-totally asymmetric zero range process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Korhonen, Marko; Lee, Eunghyun

2014-01-15

We treat the N-particle zero range process whose jumping rates satisfy a certain condition. This condition is required to use the Bethe ansatz and the resulting model is the q-boson model by Sasamoto and Wadati [“Exact results for one-dimensional totally asymmetric diffusion models,” J. Phys. A 31, 6057–6071 (1998)] or the q-totally asymmetric zero range process (TAZRP) by Borodin and Corwin [“Macdonald processes,” Probab. Theory Relat. Fields (to be published)]. We find the explicit formula of the transition probability of the q-TAZRP via the Bethe ansatz. By using the transition probability we find the probability distribution of the left-most particle'smore » position at time t. To find the probability for the left-most particle's position we find a new identity corresponding to identity for the asymmetric simple exclusion process by Tracy and Widom [“Integral formulas for the asymmetric simple exclusion process,” Commun. Math. Phys. 279, 815–844 (2008)]. For the initial state that all particles occupy a single site, the probability distribution of the left-most particle's position at time t is represented by the contour integral of a determinant.« less

Effects of artificial aging conditions on yttria-stabilized zirconia implant abutments.

PubMed

Basílio, Mariana de Almeida; Cardoso, Kátia Vieira; Antonio, Selma Gutierrez; Rizkalla, Amin Sami; Santos Junior, Gildo Coelho; Arioli Filho, João Neudenir

2016-08-01

Most ceramic abutments are fabricated from yttria-stabilized tetragonal zirconia (Y-TZP). However, Y-TZP undergoes hydrothermal degradation, a process that is not well understood. The purpose of this in vitro study was to assess the effects of artificial aging conditions on the fracture load, phase stability, and surface microstructure of a Y-TZP abutment. Thirty-two prefabricated Y-TZP abutments were screwed and tightened down to external hexagon implants and divided into 4 groups (n = 8): C, control; MC, mechanical cycling (1×10(6) cycles; 10 Hz); AUT, autoclaving (134°C; 5 hours; 0.2 MPa); and TC, thermal cycling (10(4) cycles; 5°/55°C). A single-load-to-fracture test was performed at a crosshead speed of 0.5 mm/min to assess the assembly's resistance to fracture (ISO Norm 14801). X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis was applied to observe and quantify the tetragonal-monoclinic (t-m) phase transformation. Representative abutments were examined with high-resolution scanning electron microscopy (SEM) to observe the surface characteristics of the abutments. Load-to-fracture test results (N) were compared by ANOVA and Tukey test (α=.05). XRD measurements revealed the monoclinic phase in some abutments after each aging condition. All the aging conditions reduced the fracture load significantly (P<.001). Mechanical cycling reduced the fracture load more than autoclaving (P=.034). No differences were found in the process of surface degradation among the groups; however, the SEM detected grinding-induced surface flaws and microcracks. The resistance to fracture and the phase stability of Y-TZP implant abutments were susceptible to hydrothermal and mechanical conditions. The surface microstructure of Y-TZP abutments did not change after aging conditions. Copyright © 2016 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The influence of living conditions in early life on life satisfaction in old age.

PubMed

Deindl, Christian

2013-03-01

This article examines the influence of living conditions in early life on life satisfaction in old age in eleven Western European countries. It combines the influence of individual conditions, for example housing and family background, with country characteristics in the decade of birth. Using pooled data from the second and third wave of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, multilevel models show that early life living conditions have an influence on life satisfaction in old age. Furthermore, interaction effects between current and past living conditions show that adverse living conditions strengthen the effect of early life on life satisfaction in later life and therefore are an indication of cumulative inequality over the life course. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Word Frequency and Transitional Probability on Word Reading Durations of Younger and Older Speakers.

PubMed

Moers, Cornelia; Meyer, Antje; Janse, Esther

2017-06-01

High-frequency units are usually processed faster than low-frequency units in language comprehension and language production. Frequency effects have been shown for words as well as word combinations. Word co-occurrence effects can be operationalized in terms of transitional probability (TP). TPs reflect how probable a word is, conditioned by its right or left neighbouring word. This corpus study investigates whether three different age groups-younger children (8-12 years), adolescents (12-18 years) and older (62-95 years) Dutch speakers-show frequency and TP context effects on spoken word durations in reading aloud, and whether age groups differ in the size of these effects. Results show consistent effects of TP on word durations for all age groups. Thus, TP seems to influence the processing of words in context, beyond the well-established effect of word frequency, across the entire age range. However, the study also indicates that age groups differ in the size of TP effects, with older adults having smaller TP effects than adolescent readers. Our results show that probabilistic reduction effects in reading aloud may at least partly stem from contextual facilitation that leads to faster reading times in skilled readers, as well as in young language learners.

Environmental conditions can modulate the links among oxidative stress, age, and longevity.

PubMed

Marasco, Valeria; Stier, Antoine; Boner, Winnie; Griffiths, Kate; Heidinger, Britt; Monaghan, Pat

2017-06-01

Understanding the links between environmental conditions and longevity remains a major focus in biological research. We examined within-individual changes between early- and mid-adulthood in the circulating levels of four oxidative stress markers linked to ageing, using zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata): a DNA damage product (8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine; 8-OHdG), protein carbonyls (PC), non-enzymatic antioxidant capacity (OXY), and superoxide dismutase activity (SOD). We further examined whether such within-individual changes differed among birds living under control (ad lib food) or more challenging environmental conditions (unpredictable food availability), having previously found that the latter increased corticosterone levels when food was absent but improved survival over a three year period. Our key findings were: (i) 8-OHdG and PC increased with age in both environments, with a higher increase in 8-OHdG in the challenging environment; (ii) SOD increased with age in the controls but not in the challenged birds, while the opposite was true for OXY; (iii) control birds with high levels of 8-OHdG died at a younger age, but this was not the case in challenged birds. Our data clearly show that while exposure to the potentially damaging effects of oxidative stress increases with age, environmental conditions can modulate the pace of this age-related change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

26 CFR 1.410(a)-3T - Minimum age and service conditions (temporary).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Minimum age and service conditions (temporary). 1.410(a)-3T Section 1.410(a)-3T Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE... Plans, Etc. § 1.410(a)-3T Minimum age and service conditions (temporary). (a) [Reserved] (b) Special...

26 CFR 1.410(a)-3T - Minimum age and service conditions (temporary).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Minimum age and service conditions (temporary). 1.410(a)-3T Section 1.410(a)-3T Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE.... § 1.410(a)-3T Minimum age and service conditions (temporary). (a) [Reserved] (b) Special rule for plan...

Multiple Chronic Conditions and Labor Force Outcomes: A Population Study of U.S. Adults

PubMed Central

Ward, Brian W.

2015-01-01

Background Although 1-in-5 adults have multiple (≥2) chronic conditions, limited attention has been given to the association between multiple chronic conditions and employment. Methods Cross-sectional data (2011 National Health Interview Survey) and multivariate regression analyses were used to examine the association among multiple chronic conditions, employment, and labor force outcomes for U.S. adults aged 18–64 years, controlling for covariates. Results Among U.S. adults aged 18–64 years (unweighted n=25,458), having multiple chronic conditions reduced employment probability by 11%–29%. Some individual chronic conditions decreased employment probability. Among employed adults (unweighted n=16,096), having multiple chronic conditions increased the average number of work days missed due to injury/illness in the past year by 3–9 days. Conclusions Multiple chronic conditions are be a barrier to employment and increase the number of work days missed, placing affected individuals at a financial disadvantage. Researchers interested in examining consequences of multiple chronic conditions should give consideration to labor force outcomes. PMID:26103096

26 CFR 1.410(a)-3T - Minimum age and service conditions (temporary).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2012-04-01 2011-04-01 true Minimum age and service conditions (temporary). 1.410(a)-3T Section 1.410(a)-3T Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY.... § 1.410(a)-3T Minimum age and service conditions (temporary). (a) [Reserved] (b) Special rule for plan...

CHRONIC MEDICAL CONDITIONS AND REPRODUCIBILITY OF SELF-REPORTED AGE AT MENOPAUSE AMONG COMMUNITY DWELLING WOMEN

PubMed Central

de Vries, Heather F.; Northington, Gina M.; Kaye, Elise M.; Bogner, Hillary R.

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE To examine the association between chronic medical conditions and reproducibility of self-reported age at menopause among community-dwelling women. METHOD Age at menopause was assessed in a population-based longitudinal survey of 240 women twice, in 1993 and 2004. Women who recalled age at menopause in 2004 within one year or less of the age at menopause recalled in 1993 (concordant) were compared with women who did not recall of age at menopause in 2004 within 1 year of age at menopause recalled in 1993 (discordant). Type of menopause (surgical or natural) and chronic medical conditions were assessed by self-report. RESULTS One hundred and forty three women (59.6%) reported surgical menopause and 97 (40.4%) reported natural menopause. In all, 130 (54.2%) of women recalled age at menopause in 2004 within one year or less of recalled age at menopause in 1994 while 110 (45.8%) women did not recall age at menopause in 2004 within one year or less of recalled age at menopause in 1994. Among women with surgical menopause, women with three or more medical conditions were less likely to have concordant recall of age at menopause than women with less than three chronic medical conditions (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.15, 0.91]) in multivariate models controlling for potentially influential characteristics including cognition and years from menopause. CONCLUSIONS Among women who underwent surgical menopause, the presence of three or more medical conditions is associated with decreased reproducibility of self-reported age at menopause. PMID:21971208

Chronic medical conditions and reproducibility of self-reported age at menopause among community-dwelling women.

PubMed

de Vries, Heather F; Northington, Gina M; Kaye, Elise M; Bogner, Hillary R

2011-12-01

The aim of this study was to examine the association between chronic medical conditions and reproducibility of self-reported age at menopause among community-dwelling women. Age at menopause was assessed in a population-based longitudinal survey of 240 women twice, in 1993 and 2004. Women who recalled age at menopause in 2004 within 1 year or less of age at menopause recalled in 1993 (concordant) were compared with women who did not recall age at menopause in 2004 within 1 year of age at menopause recalled in 1993 (discordant). Type of menopause (surgical or natural) and chronic medical conditions were assessed by self-report. One hundred forty-three women (59.6%) reported surgical menopause, and 97 (40.4%) reported natural menopause. In all, 130 (54.2%) women recalled age at menopause in 2004 within 1 year or less of recalled age at menopause in 1994, whereas 110 (45.8%) women did not recall age at menopause in 2004 within 1 year or less of recalled age at menopause in 1994. Among the women with surgical menopause, the women with three or more medical conditions were less likely to have concordant recall of age at menopause than the women with less than three chronic medical conditions (adjusted odds ratio, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.15-0.91) in multivariate models controlling for potentially influential characteristics including cognition and years since menopause. Among women who underwent surgical menopause, the presence of three or more medical conditions is associated with decreased reproducibility of self-reported age at menopause.

Effect of extraoral aging conditions on mechanical properties of maxillofacial silicone elastomer.

PubMed

Hatamleh, Muhanad M; Polyzois, Gregory L; Silikas, Nick; Watts, David C

2011-08-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of extraoral human and environmental conditions on the mechanical properties (tensile strength and modulus, elongation, tear strength hardness) of maxillofacial silicone elastomer. Specimens were fabricated using TechSil-S25 silicone elastomer (Technovent Ltd, Leeds, UK). Eight groups were prepared (21 specimens in each group; eight tensile, eight tear, five hardness) and conditioned differently as follows (groups 1 through 8): Dry storage for 24 hours; dry storage in dark for 6 months; storage in simulated sebum solution for 6 months; storage in simulated acidic perspiration for 6 months; accelerated artificial daylight aging under controlled moisture for 360 hours; outdoor weathering for 6 months; storage in antimicrobial silicone-cleaning solution for 30 hours; and mixed conditioning of sebum storage and light aging for 360 hours. The conditioning period selected simulated a prosthesis being in service for up to 12 months. Tensile and tear test specimens were fabricated and tested according to the International Standards Organization (ISO) standards no. 37 and 34, respectively. Shore A hardness test specimens were fabricated and tested according to the American Standards for Testing and Materials (ASTM) D 2240. Data were analyzed with one-way ANOVA, Bonferroni, and Dunnett's T3 post hoc tests (p < 0.05). Weibull analysis was also used for tensile strength and tear strength. Statistically significant differences were evident among all properties tested. Mixed conditioning of simulated sebum storage under accelerated artificial daylight aging significantly degraded mechanical properties of the silicone (p < 0.05). Mechanical properties of maxillofacial elastomers are adversely affected by human and environmental factors. Mixed aging of storage in simulated sebum under accelerated daylight aging was the most degrading regime. Accelerated aging of silicone specimens in simulated sebum under artificial daylight

Laboratory Measurements of Biomass Cook-stove Emissions Aged in an Oxidation Flow Reactor: Influence of Combustion and Aging Conditions on Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grieshop, A. P.; Reece, S. M.; Sinha, A.; Wathore, R.

2016-12-01

Combustion in rudimentary and improved cook-stoves used by billions in developing countries can be a regionally dominant contributor to black carbon (BC), primary organic aerosols (POA) and precursors for secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Recent studies suggest that SOA formed during photo-oxidation of primary emissions from biomass burning may make important contribution to its atmospheric impacts. However, the extent to which stove type and operating conditions affect the amount, composition and characteristics of SOA formed from the aging of cookstoves emissions is still largely undetermined. Here we present results from experiments with a field portable oxidation flow reactor (F-OFR) designed to assess aging of cook-stove emissions in both laboratory and field settings. Laboratory tests results are used to compare the quantity and properties of fresh and aged emissions from a traditional open fire and twp alternative stove designs operated on the standard and alternate testing protocols. Diluted cookstove emissions were exposed to a range of oxidant concentrations in the F-OFR. Primary emissions were aged both on-line, to study the influence of combustion variability, and sampled from batched emissions in a smog chamber to examine different aging conditions. Data from real-time particle- and gas-phase instruments and integrated filter samples were collected up and down stream of the OFR. The properties of primary emissions vary strongly with stove type and combustion conditions (e.g. smoldering versus flaming). Experiments aging diluted biomass emissions from distinct phases of stove operation (smoldering and flaming) showed peak SOA production for both phases occurred between 3 and 6 equivalent days of aging with slightly greater production observed in flaming phase emissions. Changing combustion conditions had a stronger influence than aging on POA+SOA `emission factors'. Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor data show a substantial evolution of aerosol

Susceptibility and resilience to memory aging stereotypes: education matters more than age.

PubMed

Andreoletti, Carrie; Lachman, Margie E

2004-01-01

The authors examined whether the memory performance of young, middle-aged, and older adults would be influenced by stereotype versus counterstereotype information about age differences on a memory task. One hundred forty-nine adults from a probability sample were randomly assigned to a control group or to age-stereotype conditions. As predicted, counterstereotype information was related to higher recall compared to stereotype and control groups. This was true across all age groups, but only for those with more education. Both stereotype and counterstereotype information were related to lower recall compared to the control group across age groups for those with lower education. Results suggest those with more education are more resilient when faced with negative age stereotypes about memory and respond positively to counterstereotype information. In contrast, those with less education show greater susceptibility to the detrimental effects of age stereotypes and respond negatively to both stereotype and counterstereotype information about memory aging.

Nature and probable age of metamorphism in northern New Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grambling, J.A.; Daniel, C.D.; Dallmeyer, R.D.

1993-02-01

Metamorphic conditions near the Al[sub 2]SiO[sub 5] triple point are unusually common in northern New Mexico. This observation is supported by mineralogy (Ky + And + Sil, Cld + Sil, Sil + Pg + Qz) and Grt-Bt-Pl-Ms thermobarometry (4--5 kb and 500--550 C). Isograds cut across tight folds (overturned to the north) in the Pecos, Rio Mora, Truchas and Picuris areas. Some deformation also accompanied or preceded metamorphism in the Rincon and Cimarron ranges. P-T paths derived from zoning in Grt and Pl, in Mn-andalusite, and the textural transition Ky to Sil to And reflect up to 2 kb ofmore » decompression, at constant temperature in the more southerly ranges but during cooling toward the north. These 500--550 C rocks are in direct contact with gneisses in the Rincon and Cimarron Ranges. Metaplutonic gneisses record hornblende pressures of 6--8 kb. Metasedimentary gneisses are migmatitic. Assemblages include Sil + Kfs, Hc + Qz and Alm + Bt + Sil, whereas Grt-Sil-Pl-Bt yields 6.5--7 kb and 700--725 C. Pressures increase northward from the Cimarrron Mountains. The gneisses display retrograde P-T paths with 2.5--3 kb of decompression and cooling through the Al[sub 2]SiO[sub 5] triple point. Geometric relationships between gneisses and 500--550 C rocks are best constrained in the Cimarron Mountains, where a folded but initially low-angle contact separates the two metamorphic grades. Gneisses are structurally beneath this contact. Other regions may display a similar geometry. The structurally-highest gneisses are locally mylonitic, suggesting that contacts between gneisses and 500--550 C rocks are ductile shear zones. Monazite U-Pb ages from gneisses of the Cimarron Range are 1420-1425 Ma, whereas hornblende argon ages are 1,395--1,397 Ma.« less

Tests for senescent decline in annual survival probabilities of common pochards, Aythya ferina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Blums, P.

1997-01-01

Senescent decline in survival probabilities of animals is a topic about which much has been written but little is known. Here, we present formal tests of senescence hypotheses, using 1373 recaptures from 8877 duckling (age 0) and 504 yearling Common Pochards (Aythya ferina) banded at a Latvian study site, 1975-1992. The tests are based on capture-recapture models that explicitly incorporate sampling probabilities that, themselves, may exhibit timeand age-specific variation. The tests provided no evidence of senescent decline in survival probabilities for this species. Power of the most useful test was low for gradual declines in annual survival probability with age, but good for steeper declines. We recommend use of this type of capture-recapture modeling and analysis for other investigations of senescence in animal survival rates.

Eruption probabilities for the Lassen Volcanic Center and regional volcanism, northern California, and probabilities for large explosive eruptions in the Cascade Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel; Clynne, Michael A.; Muffler, L.J. Patrick

2012-01-01

Chronologies for eruptive activity of the Lassen Volcanic Center and for eruptions from the regional mafic vents in the surrounding area of the Lassen segment of the Cascade Range are here used to estimate probabilities of future eruptions. For the regional mafic volcanism, the ages of many vents are known only within broad ranges, and two models are developed that should bracket the actual eruptive ages. These chronologies are used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to match the data for time intervals between eruptions. For the Lassen Volcanic Center, the probability of an eruption in the next year is 1.4x10-4 for the exponential distribution and 2.3x10-4 for the mixed exponential distribution. For the regional mafic vents, the exponential distribution gives a probability of an eruption in the next year of 6.5x10-4, but the mixed exponential distribution indicates that the current probability, 12,000 years after the last event, could be significantly lower. For the exponential distribution, the highest probability is for an eruption from a regional mafic vent. Data on areas and volumes of lava flows and domes of the Lassen Volcanic Center and of eruptions from the regional mafic vents provide constraints on the probable sizes of future eruptions. Probabilities of lava-flow coverage are similar for the Lassen Volcanic Center and for regional mafic vents, whereas the probable eruptive volumes for the mafic vents are generally smaller. Data have been compiled for large explosive eruptions (>≈ 5 km3 in deposit volume) in the Cascade Range during the past 1.2 m.y. in order to estimate probabilities of eruption. For erupted volumes >≈5 km3, the rate of occurrence since 13.6 ka is much higher than for the entire period, and we use these data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption at 4.6x10-4. For erupted volumes ≥10 km3, the rate of occurrence has been reasonably constant from 630 ka to the present, giving

Single, Complete, Probability Spaces Consistent With EPR-Bohm-Bell Experimental Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avis, David; Fischer, Paul; Hilbert, Astrid; Khrennikov, Andrei

2009-03-01

We show that paradoxical consequences of violations of Bell's inequality are induced by the use of an unsuitable probabilistic description for the EPR-Bohm-Bell experiment. The conventional description (due to Bell) is based on a combination of statistical data collected for different settings of polarization beam splitters (PBSs). In fact, such data consists of some conditional probabilities which only partially define a probability space. Ignoring this conditioning leads to apparent contradictions in the classical probabilistic model (due to Kolmogorov). We show how to make a completely consistent probabilistic model by taking into account the probabilities of selecting the settings of the PBSs. Our model matches both the experimental data and is consistent with classical probability theory.

Onset aging conditions of adults with an intellectual disability associated with primary caregiver depression.

PubMed

Lin, Lan-Ping; Hsu, Shang-Wei; Kuo, Meng-Ting; Wu, Jia-Lin; Chu, Cordia; Lin, Jin-Ding

2014-03-01

Caregivers of adults with an intellectual disability experience depressive symptoms, but the aging factors of the care recipients associated with the depressive symptoms are unknown. The objective of this study was to analyze the onset aging conditions of adults with an intellectual disability that associated with the depression scores of their primary caregivers. A cross-sectional survey was administered to gather information from 455 caregivers of adults with an intellectual disability about their symptoms of depression which assessed by a 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). The 12 aging conditions of adults with an intellectual disability include physical and mental health. The results indicate that 78% of adults with an intellectual disability demonstrate aging conditions. Physical conditions associated with aging include hearing decline (66.3%), vision decline (63.6%), incontinence (44%), articulation and bone degeneration (57.9%), teeth loss (80.4), physical strength decline (81.2%), sense of taste and smell decline (52.8%), and accompanied chronic illnesses (74.6%). Mental conditions associated with aging include memory loss (77%), language ability deterioration (74.4%), poor sleep quality (74.2%), and easy onset of depression and sadness (50.3%). Aging conditions of adults with an intellectual disability (p<0.001) was one factor that significantly affected the presence of depressive symptom among caregivers after controlling demographic characteristics. Particularly, poor sleep quality of adults with an intellectual disability (yes vs. no, OR=3.807, p=0.002) was statistically correlated to the occurrence of significant depressive symptoms among their caregivers. This study suggests that the authorities should reorient community services and future policies toward the needs of family caregivers to decrease the burdens associated with caregiving. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Left passage probability of Schramm-Loewner Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, M. N.

2013-06-01

SLE(κ,ρ⃗) is a variant of Schramm-Loewner Evolution (SLE) which describes the curves which are not conformal invariant, but are self-similar due to the presence of some other preferred points on the boundary. In this paper we study the left passage probability (LPP) of SLE(κ,ρ⃗) through field theoretical framework and find the differential equation governing this probability. This equation is numerically solved for the special case κ=2 and hρ=0 in which hρ is the conformal weight of the boundary changing (bcc) operator. It may be referred to loop erased random walk (LERW) and Abelian sandpile model (ASM) with a sink on its boundary. For the curve which starts from ξ0 and conditioned by a change of boundary conditions at x0, we find that this probability depends significantly on the factor x0-ξ0. We also present the perturbative general solution for large x0. As a prototype, we apply this formalism to SLE(κ,κ-6) which governs the curves that start from and end on the real axis.

Calibrating random forests for probability estimation.

PubMed

Dankowski, Theresa; Ziegler, Andreas

2016-09-30

Probabilities can be consistently estimated using random forests. It is, however, unclear how random forests should be updated to make predictions for other centers or at different time points. In this work, we present two approaches for updating random forests for probability estimation. The first method has been proposed by Elkan and may be used for updating any machine learning approach yielding consistent probabilities, so-called probability machines. The second approach is a new strategy specifically developed for random forests. Using the terminal nodes, which represent conditional probabilities, the random forest is first translated to logistic regression models. These are, in turn, used for re-calibration. The two updating strategies were compared in a simulation study and are illustrated with data from the German Stroke Study Collaboration. In most simulation scenarios, both methods led to similar improvements. In the simulation scenario in which the stricter assumptions of Elkan's method were not met, the logistic regression-based re-calibration approach for random forests outperformed Elkan's method. It also performed better on the stroke data than Elkan's method. The strength of Elkan's method is its general applicability to any probability machine. However, if the strict assumptions underlying this approach are not met, the logistic regression-based approach is preferable for updating random forests for probability estimation. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Probability and predictors of treatment-seeking for substance use disorders in the U.S.

PubMed

Blanco, Carlos; Iza, Miren; Rodríguez-Fernández, Jorge Mario; Baca-García, Enrique; Wang, Shuai; Olfson, Mark

2015-04-01

Little is known about to what extent treatment-seeking behavior varies across individuals with alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, drug abuse, and drug dependence. The sample included respondents from the Wave 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) who reported a lifetime diagnosis alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, drug abuse, or drug dependence. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios are presented for time to first treatment contact by sociodemographic characteristics and comorbid psychiatric disorders. Individuals were censored from the analyses if their condition remitted prior to seeking treatment. In the first year after disorder onset, rates of treatment-seeking were 13% for drug dependence, 5% for alcohol dependence, 2% for drug abuse, and 1% for alcohol abuse. The lifetime probability of seeking treatment among individuals who did not remit was also highest for drug dependence (90%), followed by drug abuse (60%), alcohol dependence (54%), and alcohol abuse (16%). Having had previous treatment contact for a substance use disorder (SUD) increased the probability of seeking treatment for another SUD. By contrast, an early age of SUD onset, belonging to an older cohort, and a higher level of education decreased the lifetime probability of treatment contact for SUD. The role of comorbid mental disorders was more complex, with some disorders increasing and other decreasing the probability of seeking treatment. Given high rates of SUD and their substantial health and economic burden, these patterns suggest the need for innovative approaches to increase treatment access for individuals with SUD. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Probability and predictors of treatment-seeking for substance use disorders in the U.S

PubMed Central

Blanco, Carlos; Iza, Miren; Rodríguez-Fernández, Jorge Mario; Baca-García, Enrique; Wang, Shuai; Olfson, Mark

2016-01-01

Background Little is known about to what extent treatment-seeking behavior varies across individuals with alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, drug abuse, and drug dependence. Methods The sample included respondents from the Wave 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) who reported a lifetime diagnosis alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, drug abuse, or drug dependence. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios are presented for time to first treatment contact by sociodemographic characteristics and comorbid psychiatric disorders. Individuals were censored from the analyses if their condition remitted prior to seeking treatment. Results In the first year after disorder onset, rates of treatment-seeking were 13% for drug dependence, 5% for alcohol dependence, 2% for drug abuse, and 1% for alcohol abuse. The lifetime probability of seeking treatment among individuals who did not remit was also highest for drug dependence (90%), followed by drug abuse (60%), alcohol dependence (54%), and alcohol abuse (16%). Having had previous treatment contact for a substance use disorder (SUD) increased the probability of seeking treatment for another SUD. By contrast, an early age of SUD onset, belonging to an older cohort, and a higher level of education decreased the lifetime probability of treatment contact for SUD. The role of comorbid mental disorders was more complex, with some disorders increasing and other decreasing the probability of seeking treatment. Conclusions Given high rates of SUD and their substantial health and economic burden, these patterns suggest the need for innovative approaches to increase treatment access for individuals with SUD. PMID:25725934

Estimation of post-test probabilities by residents: Bayesian reasoning versus heuristics?

PubMed

Hall, Stacey; Phang, Sen Han; Schaefer, Jeffrey P; Ghali, William; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2014-08-01

Although the process of diagnosing invariably begins with a heuristic, we encourage our learners to support their diagnoses by analytical cognitive processes, such as Bayesian reasoning, in an attempt to mitigate the effects of heuristics on diagnosing. There are, however, limited data on the use ± impact of Bayesian reasoning on the accuracy of disease probability estimates. In this study our objective was to explore whether Internal Medicine residents use a Bayesian process to estimate disease probabilities by comparing their disease probability estimates to literature-derived Bayesian post-test probabilities. We gave 35 Internal Medicine residents four clinical vignettes in the form of a referral letter and asked them to estimate the post-test probability of the target condition in each case. We then compared these to literature-derived probabilities. For each vignette the estimated probability was significantly different from the literature-derived probability. For the two cases with low literature-derived probability our participants significantly overestimated the probability of these target conditions being the correct diagnosis, whereas for the two cases with high literature-derived probability the estimated probability was significantly lower than the calculated value. Our results suggest that residents generate inaccurate post-test probability estimates. Possible explanations for this include ineffective application of Bayesian reasoning, attribute substitution whereby a complex cognitive task is replaced by an easier one (e.g., a heuristic), or systematic rater bias, such as central tendency bias. Further studies are needed to identify the reasons for inaccuracy of disease probability estimates and to explore ways of improving accuracy.

Crosslinking of SAVY-4000 O-rings as a Function of Aging Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Buskirk, Caleb Griffith

SAVY-4000 containers were developed as a part of DOE M 441.1-1 to protect workers who handle stored nuclear material from exposure due to loss of containment.1 The SAVY-4000 is comprised of three parts: a lid, a container, and a cross-linked fluoropolymer O-ring. Degradation of the O-ring during use could limit the lifetime of the SAVY-4000. In order to quantify the chemical changes of the Oring over time, the molecular weight between crosslinks was determined as a function of aging conditions using a swelling technique. Because the O-ring is a cross-linked polymer, it will absorb solvent into its matrix without dissolving.more » The relative amount of solvent uptake can be related to the degree of crosslinking using an equation developed by Paul Flory and John Rehner Jr3. This method was used to analyze O-ring samples aged under thermal and ionizing-radiation conditions. It was found that at the harsher thermal gaining conditions in absence of ionizing-radiation the average molecular weight between crosslinks decreased, indicating a rise in crosslinks, which may be attributable to advanced aging with no ionizing radiation present. Inversely, in the presence of ionizing radiation it was found that material has a higher level of cross-linking with age. This information could be used to help predict the lifetime of the O-rings in SAVY-4000 containers under service conditions.« less

Enhanced taurine release in cell-damaging conditions in the developing and ageing mouse hippocampus.

PubMed

Saransaari, P; Oja, S S

1997-08-01

Taurine has been shown to be essential for neuronal development and survival in the central nervous system. The release of preloaded [3H]taurine was studied in hippocampal slices from seven-day-, three-month- and 18-22-month-old mice in cell-damaging conditions. The slices were superfused in hypoxic, hypoglycemic and ischemic conditions and exposed to free radicals and oxidative stress. The release of taurine was greatly enhanced in the above conditions in all age groups, except in oxidative stress. The release was large in ischemia, particularly in the hippocampus of aged mice. Potassium stimulation was still able to release taurine in cell-damaging conditions in immature mice, whereas in adult and aged animals the release was so substantial that this additional stimulus failed to work. Taurine release was partially Ca2+-dependent in all cases. The massive release of the inhibitory amino acid taurine in ischemic conditions could act neuroprotectively, counteracting in several ways the effects of simultaneous release of excitatory amino acids. This protection could be of great importance in developing brain tissue, while also having an effect in aged brains.

Probability workshop to be better in probability topic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed

2015-02-01

The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.

Promoting normal development and self-efficacy in school-age children managing chronic conditions.

PubMed

Mickley, Kristyn L; Burkhart, Patricia V; Sigler, April N

2013-06-01

Chronic conditions can affect school-age children in more ways than just physically. Normal childhood maturation is critical at this age, yet daily management of chronic symptoms can be challenging. This article describes 4 common childhood chronic illnesses (asthma, seizure disorders, diabetes, and cystic fibrosis), and the impact these conditions have on the developing child. Self-efficacy, the belief that one can effectively perform necessary skills, is essential to self-management of chronic conditions and contributes in a positive way to the child's normal development. Implications for clinical practice and future research are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Targeting the probability versus cost of feared outcomes in public speaking anxiety.

PubMed

Nelson, Elizabeth A; Deacon, Brett J; Lickel, James J; Sy, Jennifer T

2010-04-01

Cognitive-behavioral theory suggests that social phobia is maintained, in part, by overestimates of the probability and cost of negative social events. Indeed, empirically supported cognitive-behavioral treatments directly target these cognitive biases through the use of in vivo exposure or behavioral experiments. While cognitive-behavioral theories and treatment protocols emphasize the importance of targeting probability and cost biases in the reduction of social anxiety, few studies have examined specific techniques for reducing probability and cost bias, and thus the relative efficacy of exposure to the probability versus cost of negative social events is unknown. In the present study, 37 undergraduates with high public speaking anxiety were randomly assigned to a single-session intervention designed to reduce either the perceived probability or the perceived cost of negative outcomes associated with public speaking. Compared to participants in the probability treatment condition, those in the cost treatment condition demonstrated significantly greater improvement on measures of public speaking anxiety and cost estimates for negative social events. The superior efficacy of the cost treatment condition was mediated by greater treatment-related changes in social cost estimates. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Stereotypes Associated With Age-related Conditions and Assistive Device Use in Canadian Media.

PubMed

Fraser, Sarah Anne; Kenyon, Virginia; Lagacé, Martine; Wittich, Walter; Southall, Kenneth Edmund

2016-12-01

Newspapers are an important source of information. The discourses within the media can influence public attitudes and support or discourage stereotypical portrayals of older individuals. This study critically examined discourses within a Canadian newspaper in terms of stereotypical depictions of age-related health conditions and assistive technology devices (ATDs). Four years (2009-2013) of Globe and Mail articles were searched for terms relevant to the research question. A total of 65 articles were retained, and a critical discourse analysis (CDA) of the texts was conducted. The articles were coded for stereotypes associated with age-related health conditions and ATDs, consequences of the stereotyping, and context (overall setting or background) of the discourse. The primary code list included 4 contexts, 13 stereotypes, and 9 consequences of stereotyping. CDA revealed discourses relating to (a) maintaining autonomy in a stereotypical world, (b) ATDs as obstacles in employment, (c) barriers to help seeking for age-related conditions, and (d) people in power setting the stage for discrimination. Our findings indicate that discourses in the Canadian media include stereotypes associated with age-related health conditions. Further, depictions of health conditions and ATDs may exacerbate existing stereotypes about older individuals, limit the options available to them, lead to a reduction in help seeking, and lower ATD use. Education about the realities of age-related health changes and ATDs is needed in order to diminish stereotypes and encourage ATD uptake and use. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Quantum probability and quantum decision-making.

PubMed

Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D

2016-01-13

A rigorous general definition of quantum probability is given, which is valid not only for elementary events but also for composite events, for operationally testable measurements as well as for inconclusive measurements, and also for non-commuting observables in addition to commutative observables. Our proposed definition of quantum probability makes it possible to describe quantum measurements and quantum decision-making on the same common mathematical footing. Conditions are formulated for the case when quantum decision theory reduces to its classical counterpart and for the situation where the use of quantum decision theory is necessary. © 2015 The Author(s).

Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.; Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Whittier, Joanna B.

2018-01-01

Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

Probability effects on stimulus evaluation and response processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gehring, W. J.; Gratton, G.; Coles, M. G.; Donchin, E.

1992-01-01

This study investigated the effects of probability information on response preparation and stimulus evaluation. Eight subjects responded with one hand to the target letter H and with the other to the target letter S. The target letter was surrounded by noise letters that were either the same as or different from the target letter. In 2 conditions, the targets were preceded by a warning stimulus unrelated to the target letter. In 2 other conditions, a warning letter predicted that the same letter or the opposite letter would appear as the imperative stimulus with .80 probability. Correct reaction times were faster and error rates were lower when imperative stimuli confirmed the predictions of the warning stimulus. Probability information affected (a) the preparation of motor responses during the foreperiod, (b) the development of expectancies for a particular target letter, and (c) a process sensitive to the identities of letter stimuli but not to their locations.

Mapping asphalt pavement aging and condition using multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Yifan; Zhang, Xianfeng; Tian, Jie; Jin, Xu; Luo, Lun; Yang, Ke

2017-01-01

Asphalt road reflectance spectra change as pavement ages. This provides the possibility for remote sensing to be used to monitor a change in asphalt pavement conditions. However, the relatively narrow geometry of roads and the relatively coarse spatial resolution of remotely sensed imagery result in mixtures between pavement and adjacent landcovers (e.g., vegetation, buildings, and soil), increasing uncertainties in spectral analysis. To overcome this problem, multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA) was used to map the asphalt pavement condition using Worldview-2 satellite imagery in this study. Based on extensive field investigation and in situ measurements, aged asphalt pavements were categorized into four stages-preliminarily aged, moderately aged, heavily aged, and distressed. The spectral characteristics in the first three stages were further analyzed, and a MESMA unmixing analysis was conducted to map these three kinds of pavement conditions from the Worldview-2 image. The results showed that the road pavement conditions could be detected well and mapped with an overall accuracy of 81.71% and Kappa coefficient of 0.77. Finally, a quantitative assessment of the pavement conditions for each road segment in this study area was conducted to inform road maintenance management.

Quantifying seining detection probability for fishes of Great Plains sand‐bed rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mollenhauer, Robert; Logue, Daniel R.; Brewer, Shannon K.

2018-01-01

Species detection error (i.e., imperfect and variable detection probability) is an essential consideration when investigators map distributions and interpret habitat associations. When fish detection error that is due to highly variable instream environments needs to be addressed, sand‐bed streams of the Great Plains represent a unique challenge. We quantified seining detection probability for diminutive Great Plains fishes across a range of sampling conditions in two sand‐bed rivers in Oklahoma. Imperfect detection resulted in underestimates of species occurrence using naïve estimates, particularly for less common fishes. Seining detection probability also varied among fishes and across sampling conditions. We observed a quadratic relationship between water depth and detection probability, in which the exact nature of the relationship was species‐specific and dependent on water clarity. Similarly, the direction of the relationship between water clarity and detection probability was species‐specific and dependent on differences in water depth. The relationship between water temperature and detection probability was also species dependent, where both the magnitude and direction of the relationship varied among fishes. We showed how ignoring detection error confounded an underlying relationship between species occurrence and water depth. Despite imperfect and heterogeneous detection, our results support that determining species absence can be accomplished with two to six spatially replicated seine hauls per 200‐m reach under average sampling conditions; however, required effort would be higher under certain conditions. Detection probability was low for the Arkansas River Shiner Notropis girardi, which is federally listed as threatened, and more than 10 seine hauls per 200‐m reach would be required to assess presence across sampling conditions. Our model allows scientists to estimate sampling effort to confidently assess species occurrence, which

Probability of detection of clinical seizures using heart rate changes.

PubMed

Osorio, Ivan; Manly, B F J

2015-08-01

Heart rate-based seizure detection is a viable complement or alternative to ECoG/EEG. This study investigates the role of various biological factors on the probability of clinical seizure detection using heart rate. Regression models were applied to 266 clinical seizures recorded from 72 subjects to investigate if factors such as age, gender, years with epilepsy, etiology, seizure site origin, seizure class, and data collection centers, among others, shape the probability of EKG-based seizure detection. Clinical seizure detection probability based on heart rate changes, is significantly (p<0.001) shaped by patients' age and gender, seizure class, and years with epilepsy. The probability of detecting clinical seizures (>0.8 in the majority of subjects) using heart rate is highest for complex partial seizures, increases with a patient's years with epilepsy, is lower for females than for males and is unrelated to the side of hemisphere origin. Clinical seizure detection probability using heart rate is multi-factorially dependent and sufficiently high (>0.8) in most cases to be clinically useful. Knowledge of the role that these factors play in shaping said probability will enhance its applicability and usefulness. Heart rate is a reliable and practical signal for extra-cerebral detection of clinical seizures originating from or spreading to central autonomic network structures. Copyright © 2015 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new method to determine wound age in early vital skin injuries: a probability scoring system using expression levels of Fibronectin, CD62p and Factor VIII in wound hemorrhage.

PubMed

van de Goot, Franklin R W; Korkmaz, H Ibrahim; Fronczek, Judith; Witte, Birgit I; Visser, Rob; Ulrich, Magda M W; Begieneman, Mark P V; Rozendaal, Lawrence; Krijnen, Paul A J; Niessen, Hans W M

2014-11-01

In forensic autopsies it is important to determine the age of early vital skin wounds as accurate as possible. In addition to inflammation, coagulation is also induced in vital wounds. Analysis of blood coagulation markers in wound hemorrhage could therefore be an important additional discriminating factor in wound age determination. The aim of this study was to develop a wound age probability scoring system, based on the immunohistochemical expression levels of Fibronectin, CD62p and Factor VIII in wound hemorrhage. Tissue samples of (A) non injured control skin (n=383), and samples of mechanically induced skin injuries of known wound age, (B) injuries inflicted shortly before death (up to a few minutes old) (n=382), and (C) injuries inflicted 15-30 min before death (n=42) were obtained at autopsy in order to validate wound age estimation. Tissue slides were stained for Fibronectin, CD62p and Factor VIII and were subsequently scored for staining intensity (IHC score) in wound hemorrhage (1=minor, 2=moderate, 3=strong positive). Finally, probability scores of these markers were calculated. In at most 14% of the non-injured control samples, hemorrhage was found, with mean±standard deviation IHC scores of 0.1±0.4, 0.2±0.4 and 0.2±0.5 for Fibronectin, CD62p, and Factor VIII, respectively. Expression of these markers significantly increased to mean IHC scores 1.4±0.8 (Fibronectin), 1.2±0.6 (CD62p), and 1.6±0.8 (Factor VIII) in wounds inflicted shortly before death (few minutes old) and to 2.6±0.5 (Fibronectin), 2.5±0.6 (CD62p), and 2.8±0.4 (Factor VIII) in 15-30 min old wounds. The probabilities that a wound was non vital in case of an IH score 0 were 87%, 88% and 90% for Fibronectin, CD62p, and Factor VIII, respectively. In case of an IHC score 1 or 2, the probabilities that a wound was a few minutes old were 82/90%, 82/83% and 72/93%. Finally, in case of an IHC score 3, the probabilities that a wound was 15-30 min old were 65%, 76% and 55%. Based on the

Conditioned pain modulation (CPM) in children and adolescents: Effects of sex and age

PubMed Central

Tsao, Jennie C. I.; Seidman, Laura C.; Evans, Subhadra; Lung, Kirsten C.; Zeltzer, Lonnie K.; Naliboff, Bruce D.

2013-01-01

Conditioned pain modulation (CPM) refers to the diminution of perceived pain intensity for a test stimulus following application of a conditioning stimulus to a remote area of the body, and is thought to reflect the descending inhibition of nociceptive signals. Studying CPM in children may inform interventions to enhance central pain inhibition within a developmental framework. We assessed CPM in 133 healthy children (mean age = 13 years; 52.6% girls) and tested the effects of sex and age. Participants were exposed to four trials of a pressure test stimulus before, during, and after the application of a cold water conditioning stimulus. CPM was documented by a reduction in pressure pain ratings during cold water administration. Older children (12–17 years) exhibited greater CPM than younger (8–11 years) children. No sex differences in CPM were found. Lower heart rate variability (HRV) at baseline and after pain induction was associated with less CPM controlling for child age. The findings of greater CPM in the older age cohort suggest a developmental improvement in central pain inhibitory mechanisms. The results highlight the need to examine developmental and contributory factors in central pain inhibitory mechanisms in children to guide effective, age appropriate, pain interventions. PMID:23541066

A Quantum Probability Model of Causal Reasoning

PubMed Central

Trueblood, Jennifer S.; Busemeyer, Jerome R.

2012-01-01

People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause) with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect). The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment. PMID:22593747

Left passage probability of Schramm-Loewner Evolution.

PubMed

Najafi, M N

2013-06-01

SLE(κ,ρ[over arrow]) is a variant of Schramm-Loewner Evolution (SLE) which describes the curves which are not conformal invariant, but are self-similar due to the presence of some other preferred points on the boundary. In this paper we study the left passage probability (LPP) of SLE(κ,ρ[over arrow]) through field theoretical framework and find the differential equation governing this probability. This equation is numerically solved for the special case κ=2 and h(ρ)=0 in which h(ρ) is the conformal weight of the boundary changing (bcc) operator. It may be referred to loop erased random walk (LERW) and Abelian sandpile model (ASM) with a sink on its boundary. For the curve which starts from ξ(0) and conditioned by a change of boundary conditions at x(0), we find that this probability depends significantly on the factor x(0)-ξ(0). We also present the perturbative general solution for large x(0). As a prototype, we apply this formalism to SLE(κ,κ-6) which governs the curves that start from and end on the real axis.

What Are Probability Surveys used by the National Aquatic Resource Surveys?

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.

ELIPGRID-PC: A PC program for calculating hot spot probabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davidson, J.R.

1994-10-01

ELIPGRID-PC, a new personal computer program has been developed to provide easy access to Singer`s 1972 ELIPGRID algorithm for hot-spot detection probabilities. Three features of the program are the ability to determine: (1) the grid size required for specified conditions, (2) the smallest hot spot that can be sampled with a given probability, and (3) the approximate grid size resulting from specified conditions and sampling cost. ELIPGRID-PC also provides probability of hit versus cost data for graphing with spread-sheets or graphics software. The program has been successfully tested using Singer`s published ELIPGRID results. An apparent error in the original ELIPGRIDmore » code has been uncovered and an appropriate modification incorporated into the new program.« less

Reducing the Shared Burden of Chronic Conditions among Persons Aging with Disability and Older Adults in the United States through Bridging Aging and Disability

PubMed Central

Campbell, Margaret L.; Putnam, Michelle

2017-01-01

Persons aging with long-term disabilities such as spinal cord injury or multiple sclerosis and older adults share similar chronic conditions in mid and later life in the United States. The rising general interest and more prevalent federal requirements for use of evidence-based practices (EBP) in health promotion and chronic condition interventions highlight the gap between demand and the availability of EBPs for persons aging with disability in particular. Addressing this gap will require focused efforts that will benefit substantially by bridging the fields of aging and disability/rehabilitation to develop new EBPs, translate existing EBPs across populations, and borrow best practices across fields where there are few current EBPs. Understanding distinctions between disability-related secondary conditions and age-related chronic conditions is a first step in identifying shared conditions that are important to address for both mid-life and older adults with disabilities. This review articulates these distinctions, describes shared conditions, and discusses the current lack of EBPs for both populations. It also provides recommendations for bridging activities in the United States by researchers, professionals, and consumer advocates. We argue that these can more efficiently move research and practice than if activities were undertaken separately in each field (aging and disability/rehabilitation). PMID:28895898

Leisure as a resource for successful aging by older adults with chronic health conditions.

PubMed

Hutchinson, Susan L; Nimrod, Galit

2012-01-01

Drawing on the model of Selective Optimization with Compensation (SOC) (Baltes & Baltes, 1990), the purpose of this article is to examine leisure-related goals of older adults with chronic conditions and the strategies they use to not only successfully manage their chronic health conditions but live well with them. Semi-structured in-person interviews were conducted with 18 community-dwelling older adults (nine males, nine females, ages 58-87 years) with a variety of chronic conditions. Inductive and deductive within and cross-case thematic analyses resulted in descriptions of changes and continuity in participants' leisure participation following the onset of their chronic condition and construction of four themes: drawing on existing resources for continued involvement, setting leisure-based goals, using strategies to get more out of life, and more than managing: living a life of meaning. Implications for promoting successful aging are discussed, specifically the benefits of incorporating information and skill-building to help older adults recognize that leisure can be a resource for healthy aging and self-managing their chronic health condition.

Probability in the Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaidman, Lev

It is argued that, although in the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics there is no "probability" for an outcome of a quantum experiment in the usual sense, we can understand why we have an illusion of probability. The explanation involves: (a) A "sleeping pill" gedanken experiment which makes correspondence between an illegitimate question: "What is the probability of an outcome of a quantum measurement?" with a legitimate question: "What is the probability that `I' am in the world corresponding to that outcome?"; (b) A gedanken experiment which splits the world into several worlds which are identical according to some symmetry condition; and (c) Relativistic causality, which together with (b) explain the Born rule of standard quantum mechanics. The Quantum Sleeping Beauty controversy and "caring measure" replacing probability measure are discussed.

Age-related effects on postural control under multi-task conditions.

PubMed

Granacher, Urs; Bridenbaugh, Stephanie A; Muehlbauer, Thomas; Wehrle, Anja; Kressig, Reto W

2011-01-01

Changes in postural sway and gait patterns due to simultaneously performed cognitive (CI) and/or motor interference (MI) tasks have previously been reported and are associated with an increased risk of falling in older adults. The objectives of this study were to investigate the effects of a CI and/or MI task on static and dynamic postural control in young and elderly subjects, and to find out whether there is an association between measures of static and dynamic postural control while concurrently performing the CI and/or MI task. A total of 36 healthy young (n = 18; age: 22.3 ± 3.0 years; BMI: 21.0 ± 1.6 kg/m(2)) and elderly adults (n = 18; age: 73.5 ± 5.5 years; BMI: 24.2 ± 2.9 kg/m(2)) participated in this study. Static postural control was measured during bipedal stance, and dynamic postural control was obtained while walking on an instrumented walkway. Irrespective of the task condition, i.e. single-task or multiple tasks, elderly participants showed larger center-of-pressure displacements and greater stride-to-stride variability than younger participants. Associations between measures of static and dynamic postural control were found only under the single-task condition in the elderly. Age-related deficits in the postural control system seem to be primarily responsible for the observed results. The weak correlations detected between static and dynamic measures could indicate that fall-risk assessment should incorporate dynamic measures under multi-task conditions, and that skills like erect standing and walking are independent of each other and may have to be trained complementarily. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Age-dependent associations between telomere length and environmental conditions in roe deer.

PubMed

Wilbourn, Rachael V; Froy, Hannah; McManus, Marie-Christina; Cheynel, Louise; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle; Regis, Corinne; Rey, Benjamin; Pellerin, Maryline; Lemaître, Jean-François; Nussey, Daniel H

2017-09-01

Telomere length (TL) represents a promising biomarker of overall physiological state and of past environmental experiences, which could help us understand the drivers of life-history variation in natural populations. A growing number of studies in birds suggest that environmental stress or poor environmental conditions are associated with shortened TL, but studies of such relationships in wild mammals are lacking. Here, we compare leucocyte TL from cross-sectional samples collected from two French populations of roe deer which experience different environmental conditions. We found that, as predicted, TL was shorter in the population experiencing poor environmental conditions but that this difference was only significant in older individuals and was independent of sex and body mass. Unexpectedly, the difference was underpinned by a significant increase in TL with age in the population experiencing good environmental conditions, while there was no detectable relationship with age in poor conditions. These results demonstrate both the environmental sensitivity and complexity of telomere dynamics in natural mammal populations, and highlight the importance of longitudinal data to disentangle the within- and among-individual processes that generate them. © 2017 The Authors.

Reduced Electrodermal Fear Conditioning from Ages 3 to 8 Years Is Associated with Aggressive Behavior at Age 8 Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gao, Yu; Raine, Adrian; Venables, Peter H.; Dawson, Michael E.; Mednick, Sarnoff A.

2010-01-01

Background: Poor fear conditioning characterizes adult psychopathy and criminality, but it is not known whether it is related to aggressive/antisocial behavior in early childhood. Methods: Using a differential, partial reinforcement conditioning paradigm, electrodermal activity was recorded from 200 male and female children at ages 3, 4, 5, 6, and…

Cenozoic volcanic geology and probable age of inception of basin-range faulting in the southeasternmost Chocolate Mountains, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crowe, B.M.

1978-02-01

A complex sequence of Oligocene-age volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks form a major volcanic center in the Picacho area of the southeasternmost Chocolate Mountains, Imperial County, California. Basal-volcanic rocks consist of lava flows and flow breccia of trachybasalt, pyroxene rhyodacite, and pyroxene dacite (32 My old). These volcanic rocks locally overlie fanglomerate and rest unconformably on pre-Cenozoic basement rocks. South and southeast of a prominent arcuate fault zone in the central part of the area, the rhyolite ignimbrite (26 My old) forms a major ash-flow sheet. In the southwestern part of the Picacho area the rhyolite ignimbrite interfingers with and ismore » overlain by dacite flows and laharic breccia. The rhyolite ignimbrite and the dacite of Picacho Peak are overlapped by lava flows and breccia of pyroxene andesite (25 My old) that locally rest on pre-Cenozoic basement rocks. The volcanic rocks of the Picacho area form a slightly bimodal volcanic suite consisting chiefly of silicic volcanic rocks with subordinate andesite. Late Miocene augite-olivine basalt is most similar in major-element abundances to transitional alkali-olivine basalt of the Basin and Range province. Normal separation faults in the Picacho area trend northwest and north parallel to major linear mountain ranges in the region. The areal distribution of the 26-My-old rhyolite ignimbrite and the local presence of megabreccia and fanglomerate flanking probable paleohighs suggest that the ignimbrite was erupted over irregular topography controlled by northwest- and north-trending probable basin-range faults. These relations date the inception of faulting in southeasternmost California at pre-26 and probably pre-32 My ago. A transition of basaltic volcanism in the area is dated at 13 My ago. 9 figures, 2 tables.« less

The Efficacy of Using Diagrams When Solving Probability Word Problems in College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beitzel, Brian D.; Staley, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Previous experiments have shown a deleterious effect of visual representations on college students' ability to solve total- and joint-probability word problems. The present experiments used conditional-probability problems, known to be more difficult than total- and joint-probability problems. The diagram group was instructed in how to use tree…

Temporal evolution of age data under transient pumping conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leray, S.; De Dreuzy, J.; Aquilina, L.; Vergnaud, V.; Labasque, T.; Bour, O.; Le Borgne, T.

2013-12-01

While most age data derived from tracers have been analyzed in steady-state flow conditions, we determine their temporal evolution under transient pumping conditions. Starting pumping in a well modifies the natural flow patterns induced by the topographical gradient to a mainly convergent flow to the well. Our study is based on a set of models made up of a shallowly dipping aquifer overlain by a less permeable aquitard. These settings are characteristic of the crystalline aquifer of Plœmeur (Brittany, France) located in a highly fractured zone at the contact between a granite and micaschists. Under a pseudo steady-state flow assumption (instantaneous shift between two steady-state flow fields), we solve the transport equation with a backward particle-tracking method and determine the temporal evolution of the concentrations at the pumping well of the four atmospheric tracers CFC 11, CFC 12, CFC 113 and SF6. We show that apparent ages deduced from these concentrations evolve both because of the flow patterns modifications and because of the non-linear evolution of the atmospheric tracer concentrations. Flow patterns modifications only intervene just after the start of pumping, when the initially piston-like residence time distribution is transformed to a broader distribution mixing residence times from a wide variety of flow lines. Later, while flow patterns and the supplying volume of the pumping well still evolve, the residence time distributions are hardly modified and apparent ages are solely altered by the non-linear atmospheric tracer concentrations that progressively modifies the weighting of the residence time distribution. These results are confirmed by the observations at the site of Plœmeur in the pumping area. First, long term chloride observations confirm the quick evolution of the flow patterns after the start of pumping. Second, posterior and more recent evolutions of apparent ages derived from CFCs are consistent with the modeling results revealing

Asymptotic Equivalence of Probability Measures and Stochastic Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touchette, Hugo

2018-03-01

Let P_n and Q_n be two probability measures representing two different probabilistic models of some system (e.g., an n-particle equilibrium system, a set of random graphs with n vertices, or a stochastic process evolving over a time n) and let M_n be a random variable representing a "macrostate" or "global observable" of that system. We provide sufficient conditions, based on the Radon-Nikodym derivative of P_n and Q_n, for the set of typical values of M_n obtained relative to P_n to be the same as the set of typical values obtained relative to Q_n in the limit n→ ∞. This extends to general probability measures and stochastic processes the well-known thermodynamic-limit equivalence of the microcanonical and canonical ensembles, related mathematically to the asymptotic equivalence of conditional and exponentially-tilted measures. In this more general sense, two probability measures that are asymptotically equivalent predict the same typical or macroscopic properties of the system they are meant to model.

Prognostic Value of Geriatric Conditions Beyond Age After Acute Coronary Syndrome.

PubMed

Sanchis, Juan; Ruiz, Vicente; Bonanad, Clara; Valero, Ernesto; Ruescas-Nicolau, Maria Arantzazu; Ezzatvar, Yasmin; Sastre, Clara; García-Blas, Sergio; Mollar, Anna; Bertomeu-González, Vicente; Miñana, Gema; Núñez, Julio

2017-06-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the prognostic value of geriatric conditions beyond age after acute coronary syndrome. This was a prospective cohort design including 342 patients (from October 1, 2010, to February 1, 2012) hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome, older than 65 years, in whom 5 geriatric conditions were evaluated at discharge: frailty (Fried and Green scales), comorbidity (Charlson and simple comorbidity indexes), cognitive impairment (Pfeiffer test), physical disability (Barthel index), and instrumental disability (Lawton-Brody scale). The primary end point was all-cause mortality. The median follow-up for the entire population was 4.7 years (range, 3-2178 days). A total of 156 patients (46%) died. Among the geriatric conditions, frailty (Green score, per point; hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.02-1.20; P=.01) and comorbidity (Charlson index, per point; hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.0-1.40; P=.05) were the independent predictors. The introduction of age in a basic model using well-established prognostic clinical variables resulted in an increase in discrimination accuracy (C-statistic=.716-.744; P=.05), though the addition of frailty and comorbidity provided a nonsignificant further increase (C-statistic=.759; P=.36). Likewise, the addition of age to the clinical model led to a significant risk reclassification (continuous net reclassification improvement, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.21-0.67; and integrated discrimination improvement, 0.04; 95% CI, 0.01-0.09). However, the addition of frailty and comorbidity provided a further significant risk reclassification in comparison to the clinical model with age (continuous net reclassification improvement, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.16-0.65; and integrated discrimination improvement, 0.04; 95% CI, 0.01-0.10). In conclusion, frailty and comorbidity are mortality predictors that significantly reclassify risk beyond age after acute coronary syndrome. Copyright © 2017 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and

Occupational Safety and Health Conditions Aboard Small- and Medium-Size Fishing Vessels: Differences among Age Groups.

PubMed

Zytoon, Mohamed A; Basahel, Abdulrahman M

2017-02-24

Although marine fishing is one of the most hazardous occupations, research on the occupational safety and health (OSH) conditions aboard marine fishing vessels is scarce. For instance, little is known about the working conditions of vulnerable groups such as young and aging fishermen. The objective of the current paper is to study the OSH conditions of young and aging fishermen compared to middle-aged fishermen in the small- and medium-size (SM) marine fishing sector. A cross-sectional study was designed, and 686 fishermen working aboard SM fishing vessels were interviewed to collect information about their safety and health. The associations of physical and psychosocial work conditions with safety and health outcomes, e.g., injuries, illnesses and job satisfaction, are presented. The results of the current study can be utilized in the design of effective accident prevention and OSH training programs for the three age groups and in the regulation of working conditions aboard fishing vessels.

Occupational Safety and Health Conditions Aboard Small- and Medium-Size Fishing Vessels: Differences among Age Groups

PubMed Central

Zytoon, Mohamed A.; Basahel, Abdulrahman M.

2017-01-01

Although marine fishing is one of the most hazardous occupations, research on the occupational safety and health (OSH) conditions aboard marine fishing vessels is scarce. For instance, little is known about the working conditions of vulnerable groups such as young and aging fishermen. The objective of the current paper is to study the OSH conditions of young and aging fishermen compared to middle-aged fishermen in the small- and medium-size (SM) marine fishing sector. A cross-sectional study was designed, and 686 fishermen working aboard SM fishing vessels were interviewed to collect information about their safety and health. The associations of physical and psychosocial work conditions with safety and health outcomes, e.g., injuries, illnesses and job satisfaction, are presented. The results of the current study can be utilized in the design of effective accident prevention and OSH training programs for the three age groups and in the regulation of working conditions aboard fishing vessels. PMID:28245578

Health Conditions and Passive Suicidal Ideation in the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe

PubMed Central

Morton, Kimberly; Turiano, Nicholas A.; Fiske, Amy

2016-01-01

Objectives: To examine the associations between health conditions and passive suicidal ideation in middle-aged and older adults. Method: Multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted on data from 35,664 middle-aged and older adults from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe. Mediation analyses were also conducted to test the roles of disability and depression in risk of ideation. Results: After including demographic variables, disability, depression, and other health conditions as covariates, heart attack, diabetes/high blood sugar, chronic lung disease, arthritis, ulcer, and hip/femoral fractures were associated with increased odds of passive suicidal ideation. When grouped by organ systems, conditions affecting the endocrine, respiratory, and musculoskeletal systems were associated with increased odds of passive suicidal ideation, as was the total number of conditions. Individuals with greater numbers of health conditions exhibited greater levels of disability and depression, which partially explained the increased risk of passive suicidal ideation among those with more health conditions. Discussion: Certain specific health conditions, as well as total number of conditions, are associated with passive suicidal ideation in middle age and older adulthood. Health is a critical risk factor for suicidal ideation in late life and should be further studied in this particularly at-risk population. PMID:27013533

Crash probability estimation via quantifying driver hazard perception.

PubMed

Li, Yang; Zheng, Yang; Wang, Jianqiang; Kodaka, Kenji; Li, Keqiang

2018-07-01

Crash probability estimation is an important method to predict the potential reduction of crash probability contributed by forward collision avoidance technologies (FCATs). In this study, we propose a practical approach to estimate crash probability, which combines a field operational test and numerical simulations of a typical rear-end crash model. To consider driver hazard perception characteristics, we define a novel hazard perception measure, called as driver risk response time, by considering both time-to-collision (TTC) and driver braking response to impending collision risk in a near-crash scenario. Also, we establish a driving database under mixed Chinese traffic conditions based on a CMBS (Collision Mitigation Braking Systems)-equipped vehicle. Applying the crash probability estimation in this database, we estimate the potential decrease in crash probability owing to use of CMBS. A comparison of the results with CMBS on and off shows a 13.7% reduction of crash probability in a typical rear-end near-crash scenario with a one-second delay of driver's braking response. These results indicate that CMBS is positive in collision prevention, especially in the case of inattentive drivers or ole drivers. The proposed crash probability estimation offers a practical way for evaluating the safety benefits in the design and testing of FCATs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ERPs, semantic processing and age.

PubMed

Miyamoto, T; Katayama, J; Koyama, T

1998-06-01

ERPs (N400, LPC and CNV) were elicited in two sets of subjects grouped according to age (young vs. elderly) using a word-pair category matching paradigm. Each prime consisted of a Japanese noun (constructed from two to four characters of the Hiragana) followed by one Chinese character (Kanji) as the target, this latter representing one of five semantic categories. There were two equally probable target conditions: match or mismatch. Each target was preceded by a prime, either belonging to, or not belonging to, the same semantic category. The subjects were required to respond with a specified button press to the given target according to the condition. We found RTs to be longer in the elderly subjects and under the mismatch condition. N400 amplitude was reduced in the elderly subjects under the mismatch condition and there was no difference between match and mismatch response, which were similar in amplitude to that under match condition for the young subjects. In addition, the CNV amplitudes were larger in the elderly subjects. These results suggested that functional changes in semantic processing through aging (larger semantic networks and diffuse semantic activation) were the cause of this N400 reduction, attributing a subsidiary role to attentional disturbance. We also discuss the importance of taking age-related changes into consideration in clinical studies.

Covariate-adjusted Spearman's rank correlation with probability-scale residuals.

PubMed

Liu, Qi; Li, Chun; Wanga, Valentine; Shepherd, Bryan E

2018-06-01

It is desirable to adjust Spearman's rank correlation for covariates, yet existing approaches have limitations. For example, the traditionally defined partial Spearman's correlation does not have a sensible population parameter, and the conditional Spearman's correlation defined with copulas cannot be easily generalized to discrete variables. We define population parameters for both partial and conditional Spearman's correlation through concordance-discordance probabilities. The definitions are natural extensions of Spearman's rank correlation in the presence of covariates and are general for any orderable random variables. We show that they can be neatly expressed using probability-scale residuals (PSRs). This connection allows us to derive simple estimators. Our partial estimator for Spearman's correlation between X and Y adjusted for Z is the correlation of PSRs from models of X on Z and of Y on Z, which is analogous to the partial Pearson's correlation derived as the correlation of observed-minus-expected residuals. Our conditional estimator is the conditional correlation of PSRs. We describe estimation and inference, and highlight the use of semiparametric cumulative probability models, which allow preservation of the rank-based nature of Spearman's correlation. We conduct simulations to evaluate the performance of our estimators and compare them with other popular measures of association, demonstrating their robustness and efficiency. We illustrate our method in two applications, a biomarker study and a large survey. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Burden of high fracture probability worldwide: secular increases 2010-2040.

PubMed

Odén, A; McCloskey, E V; Kanis, J A; Harvey, N C; Johansson, H

2015-09-01

The number of individuals aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture worldwide in 2010 was estimated at 158 million and is set to double by 2040. The aim of this study was to quantify the number of individuals worldwide aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture in 2010 and 2040. A threshold of high fracture probability was set at the age-specific 10-year probability of a major fracture (clinical vertebral, forearm, humeral or hip fracture) which was equivalent to that of a woman with a BMI of 24 kg/m(2) and a prior fragility fracture but no other clinical risk factors. The prevalence of high risk was determined worldwide and by continent using all available country-specific FRAX models and applied the population demography for each country. Twenty-one million men and 137 million women had a fracture probability at or above the threshold in the world for the year 2010. The greatest number of men and women at high risk were from Asia (55 %). Worldwide, the number of high-risk individuals is expected to double over the next 40 years. We conclude that individuals with high probability of osteoporotic fractures comprise a very significant disease burden to society, particularly in Asia, and that this burden is set to increase markedly in the future. These analyses provide a platform for the evaluation of risk assessment and intervention strategies.

Developmental Screening Using the Ages and Stages Questionnaire: Standardized versus Real-World Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

San Antonio, Marianne C.; Fenick, Ada M.; Shabanova, Veronika; Leventhal, John M.; Weitzman, Carol C.

2014-01-01

Developmental screens are often used in nonstandardized conditions, such as pediatric waiting rooms, despite validation under standardized conditions. We examined the reproducibility of the Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ), a developmental screening instrument commonly used in pediatric practices, under standardized versus nonstandardized…

Estimation of transition probabilities of credit ratings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Gan Chew; Hin, Pooi Ah

2015-12-01

The present research is based on the quarterly credit ratings of ten companies over 15 years taken from the database of the Taiwan Economic Journal. The components in the vector mi (mi1, mi2,⋯, mi10) may first be used to denote the credit ratings of the ten companies in the i-th quarter. The vector mi+1 in the next quarter is modelled to be dependent on the vector mi via a conditional distribution which is derived from a 20-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The transition probability Pkl (i ,j ) for getting mi+1,j = l given that mi, j = k is then computed from the conditional distribution. It is found that the variation of the transition probability Pkl (i ,j ) as i varies is able to give indication for the possible transition of the credit rating of the j-th company in the near future.

Temporal evolution of age data under transient pumping conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leray, S.; de Dreuzy, J.-R.; Aquilina, L.; Vergnaud-Ayraud, V.; Labasque, T.; Bour, O.; Le Borgne, T.

2014-04-01

While most age data derived from tracers have been analyzed in steady-state flow conditions, we determine their temporal evolution when starting a pumping. Our study is based on a model made up of a shallowly dipping aquifer overlain by a less permeable aquitard characteristic of the crystalline aquifer of Plœmeur (Brittany, France). Under a pseudo transient flow assumption (instantaneous shift between two steady-state flow fields), we solve the transport equation with a backward particle-tracking method and determine the temporal evolution of the concentrations at the pumping well of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113 and SF6. Apparent ages evolve because of the modifications of the flow pattern and because of the non-linear evolution of the tracer atmospheric concentrations. To identify the respective role of these two causes, we propose two successive analyses. We first convolute residence time distributions initially arising at different times at the same sampling time. We secondly convolute one residence time distribution at various sampling times. We show that flow pattern modifications control the apparent ages evolution in the first pumping year when the residence time distribution is modified from a piston-like distribution to a much broader distribution. In the first pumping year, the apparent age evolution contains transient information that can be used to better constrain hydrogeological systems and slightly compensate for the small number of tracers. Later, the residence time distribution hardly evolves and apparent ages only evolve because of the tracer atmospheric concentrations. In this phase, apparent age time-series do not reflect any evolution in the flow pattern.

Self-reported health in mothers: the impact of age, and socioeconomic conditions.

PubMed

Floderus, Birgitta; Hagman, Maud; Aronsson, Gunnar; Marklund, Staffan; Wikman, Anders

2008-01-01

The aim of the present analysis was to study health and well-being in mothers compared to women without children, and to analyze potential interactions with age and socioeconomic conditions. The study comprised 5,368 Swedish women born in 1960-1979 who were interviewed in any of the population-based Surveys of Living Conditions during the period 1996-2003. Having children at home was related to self-reported health symptoms and long-standing illness in multiple logistic regression models. The impact of age, cohabitation status, full-time or part-time work, and income level were analyzed. While mothers were less burdened by long-standing illness, partly due to selection mechanisms (a "healthy mother effect"), they experienced worse self-rated health and more fatigue than women without children, and the odds of poor self-rated health and fatigue increased by number of children. Conditions that strengthened the association between motherhood and impaired health were young maternal age, full-time employment, high income, and being alone. The study indicates a need for improved negotiations between parents regarding a fair share of work and family duties and extended support for lone mothers to prevent adverse health effects in women combining children and work. The results may be useful to policy-makers and employers in developing new policies.

Changes in working conditions and physical health functioning among midlife and ageing employees.

PubMed

Mänty, Minna; Kouvonen, Anne; Lallukka, Tea; Lahti, Jouni; Lahelma, Eero; Rahkonen, Ossi

2015-11-01

The aim this study was to examine the effect of changes in physical and psychosocial working conditions on physical health functioning among ageing municipal employees. Follow-up survey data were collected from midlife employees of the City of Helsinki, Finland, at three time points: wave 1 (2000-2002), wave 2 (2007), and wave 3 (2012). Changes in physical and psychosocial working conditions were assessed between waves 1 and 2. Physical health functioning was measured by the physical component summary (PCS) of the Short-Form 36 questionnaire at each of the three waves. In total, 2784 respondents (83% women) who remained employed over the follow-up were available for the analyses. Linear mixed-effect models were used to assess the associations and adjust for key covariates (age, gender, obesity, chronic diseases, and health behaviors). Repeated and increased exposure to adverse physical working conditions was associated with greater decline in physical health functioning over time. In contrast, decrease in exposures reduced the decline. Of the psychosocial working conditions, changes in job demands had no effects on physical health functioning. However, decreased job control was associated with greater decline and repeated high or increased job control reduced the decline in physical health functioning over time. Adverse changes in physical working conditions and job control were associated with greater decline in physical health functioning over time, whereas favorable changes in these exposures reduced the decline. Preventing deterioration and promoting improvement of working conditions are likely to help maintain better physical health functioning among ageing employees.

[Effect of Bushen Huoxue Compound on Retinal Müller Cells in High Glucose or AGEs Conditions].

PubMed

Xie, Xue-jun; Song, Ming-xia; Zhang, Mei; Qin, Wei; Wan, Li; Fang, Yang

2015-06-01

To explore the effect of Bushen Huoxue Compound (BHC) on lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) leakage, expressions of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and VEGF mRNA in retinal Muller cells under high glucose condition or advanced glycosylation end products (AGEs) condition by using serum pharmacological method. The retinal Müller cells of 5-7 days post-natal Sprague Dawley (SD) rats were cultured with modified enzyme-digestion method. Purified retinal Muller cells were cultured in normal conditions, high glucose condition (50 mmol/L) or AGEs (50 mg/L and 100 mg/L) conditions, and BHC-containing serum was added to culture medium. The LDH leakage and VEGF expressions were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In addition, the relative expression of VEGF mRNA was tested by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Compared with the normal control group, expressions of VEGF and VEGF mRNA were significantly increased in the high glucose group, the low dose AGEs group and the high dose AGEs group (all P < 0.01). The LDH leakage was obviously increased in the high dose AGEs group, when compared with the normal control group and the high glucose group (P < 0.01). The LDH leakage, expressions of VEGF and VEGF mRNA were obviously decreased by BHC-containing serum both in high glucose and AGEs conditions (P < 0.05, P < 0.01). BHC-containing serum had no significant effect on the LDH leakage and expressions of VEGF and VEGF mRNA in normal conditions (P > 0.05). AGEs intervention could obviously lower the stability of Müller cell membrane. Up-regulated expressions of VEGF and VEGF mRNA in cultured Müller cells could be induced by AGEs or high glucose. BHC-containing serum could stabilize the stability of Müller cell membrane, inhibit the transcription of VEGF mRNA and decrease the protein expression of VEGF, which might be one of important mechanisms for preventing and treating diabetic retinopathy.

Height probabilities in the Abelian sandpile model on the generalized finite Bethe lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Haiyan; Zhang, Fuji

2013-08-01

In this paper, we study the sandpile model on the generalized finite Bethe lattice with a particular boundary condition. Using a combinatorial method, we give the exact expressions for all single-site probabilities and some two-site joint probabilities. As a by-product, we prove that the height probabilities of bulk vertices are all the same for the Bethe lattice with certain given boundary condition, which was found from numerical evidence by Grassberger and Manna ["Some more sandpiles," J. Phys. (France) 51, 1077-1098 (1990)], 10.1051/jphys:0199000510110107700 but without a proof.

The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

2004-01-01

In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

Internet-Based Resources for Disease Self-Care Among Middle-Aged and Older Women with Chronic Conditions.

PubMed

Pettus, Amanda J; Mendez-Luck, Carolyn A; Bergeron, Caroline D; Ahn, SangNam; Towne, Samuel D; Ory, Marcia G; Smith, Matthew Lee

2017-03-01

This two-part study analyzed data collected from middle-aged (age 44-64) and older women (age 65+) with one or more chronic conditions who completed the National Council on Aging Chronic Care Survey. Part One analyzed data from 418 women to describe sociodemographics, disease types, and healthcare utilization associated with Internet use among middle-aged and older women with 1 or more chronic diseases. Part Two analyzed data from the 251 Internet-using women to identify the online self-care resources they are using (format, host organization) and for what purposes. Approximately 31% of participants were age 65 years or older, 30% reported having three or more chronic condition types, and 65% reported using the Internet. A significantly larger proportion of older women reported multiple chronic conditions, and a significantly fewer number of older women reported using the Internet. A significantly smaller proportion of Internet users were non-Hispanic white, more educated, and employed. A significantly larger proportion of non-Internet users reported needing help learning what to do to manage their health conditions and needing help learning how to care for their health conditions. Among only Internet-using women, 18.7% participated in online discussions/chatrooms/listserv and 45.2% read about the experiences of others with chronic diseases. Interest in websites and online courses varied. Understanding Internet use among women with chronic conditions can inform targeted efforts to increase Internet availability, educate potential users about the benefits of online resources, and effectively tailor Internet-based materials to self-care needs.

Who in Europe Works beyond the State Pension Age and under which Conditions? Results from SHARE.

PubMed

Wahrendorf, Morten; Akinwale, Bola; Landy, Rebecca; Matthews, Katey; Blane, David

2017-01-01

There is much research about those who exit the labour market prematurely, however, comparatively little is known about people working longer and about their employment and working conditions. In this paper, we describe the employment and working conditions of men and women working between 65 and 80 years, and compare them with previous conditions of those retired in the same age group. Analyses are based on wave 4 data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) with information collected between 2009 and 2011 from 17,625 older men and women across 16 European countries. Besides socio-demographic and health-related factors (physical and mental health), the focus lies on employment conditions (e.g. employment status, occupational position and working hours) and on stressful working conditions, measured in terms of low control at work and effort-reward imbalance. In case of retired people, information on working conditions refer to the last job before retirement. Following descriptive analyses, we then conduct multivariable analyses and investigate how working conditions and poor health are related to labour market participation (i.e. random intercept models accounting for country affiliation and adjusted for potential confounders). Results illustrate that people working between the ages of 65 and 80 are more likely to be self-employed (either with or without employees) and work in advantaged occupational positions. Furthermore, findings reveal that psychosocial working conditions are generally better than the conditions retired respondents had in their last job. Finally, in contrast to those who work, health tends to be worse among retired people. In conclusion, findings deliver empirical evidence that paid employment beyond age 65 is more common among self-employed workers throughout Europe, in advantaged occupations and under-favourable psychosocial circumstances, and that this group of workers are in considerably good mental and physical

The probability of object-scene co-occurrence influences object identification processes.

PubMed

Sauvé, Geneviève; Harmand, Mariane; Vanni, Léa; Brodeur, Mathieu B

2017-07-01

Contextual information allows the human brain to make predictions about the identity of objects that might be seen and irregularities between an object and its background slow down perception and identification processes. Bar and colleagues modeled the mechanisms underlying this beneficial effect suggesting that the brain stocks information about the statistical regularities of object and scene co-occurrence. Their model suggests that these recurring regularities could be conceptualized along a continuum in which the probability of seeing an object within a given scene can be high (probable condition), moderate (improbable condition) or null (impossible condition). In the present experiment, we propose to disentangle the electrophysiological correlates of these context effects by directly comparing object-scene pairs found along this continuum. We recorded the event-related potentials of 30 healthy participants (18-34 years old) and analyzed their brain activity in three time windows associated with context effects. We observed anterior negativities between 250 and 500 ms after object onset for the improbable and impossible conditions (improbable more negative than impossible) compared to the probable condition as well as a parieto-occipital positivity (improbable more positive than impossible). The brain may use different processing pathways to identify objects depending on whether the probability of co-occurrence with the scene is moderate (rely more on top-down effects) or null (rely more on bottom-up influences). The posterior positivity could index error monitoring aimed to ensure that no false information is integrated into mental representations of the world.

Sexual behavior in the United States: results from a national probability sample of men and women ages 14-94.

PubMed

Herbenick, Debby; Reece, Michael; Schick, Vanessa; Sanders, Stephanie A; Dodge, Brian; Fortenberry, J Dennis

2010-10-01

Despite a demonstrated relationship between sexual behaviors and health, including clinical risks, little is known about contemporary sexual behavior. To assess the rates of sexual behavior among adolescents and adults in the United States. We report the recent (past month, past year) and lifetime prevalence of sexual behaviors in a nationally representative probability sample of 5,865 men and women ages 14 to 94 in the United States (2,936 men, 2,929 women). Behaviors assessed included solo masturbation, partnered masturbation, giving and receiving oral sex, vaginal intercourse, and anal intercourse. Masturbation was common throughout the lifespan and more common than partnered sexual activities during adolescence and older age (70+). Although uncommon among 14- to 15-year olds, in the past year 18.3% of 16- to 17-year-old males and 22.4% of 16- to 17-year-old females performed oral sex with an other-sex partner. Also in the past year, more than half of women and men ages 18 to 49 engaged in oral sex. The proportion of adults who reported vaginal sex in the past year was highest among men ages 25-39 and for women ages 20-29, then progressively declined among older age groups. More than 20% of men ages 25-49 and women ages 20-39 reported anal sex in the past year. Same-sex sexual behaviors occurring in the past year were uncommonly reported. Men and women engage in a diverse range of solo and partnered sexual behaviors throughout the life course. The rates of contemporary sexual behavior provided in this report will be valuable to those who develop, implement, and evaluate programs that seek to improve societal knowledge related to the prevalence of sexual behaviors and to sexual health clinicians whose work to improve sexual health among the population often requires such rates of behavior. © 2010 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

Prevalence of probable Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder symptoms: result from a Spanish sample of children.

PubMed

Cerrillo-Urbina, Alberto José; García-Hermoso, Antonio; Martínez-Vizcaíno, Vicente; Pardo-Guijarro, María Jesús; Ruiz-Hermosa, Abel; Sánchez-López, Mairena

2018-03-15

The aims of our study were to: (i) determine the prevalence of children aged 4 to 6 years with probable Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) symptoms in the Spanish population; and (ii) analyse the association of probable ADHD symptoms with sex, age, type of school, origin (native or foreign) and socio-economic status in these children. This cross-sectional study included 1189 children (4 to 6 years-old) from 21 primary schools in 19 towns from the Ciudad Real and Cuenca provinces, Castilla-La Mancha region, Spain. The ADHD Rating Scales IV for parents and teachers was administered to determine the probability of ADHD. The 90th percentile cut-off was used to establish the prevalence of inattention, hyperactivity/impulsivity and combined subtype. The prevalence of children with probable ADHD symptoms was 5.4% (2.6% inattention subtype symptoms, 1.5% hyperactivity/impulsivity subtype symptoms, and 1.3% combined subtype symptoms). Children aged 4 to 5 years showed a higher prevalence of probable ADHD in the inattention subtype symptoms and in total of all subtypes than children aged 6 years, and children with low socio-economic status reported a higher prevalence of probable ADHD symptoms (each subtype and total of all of them) than those with medium and high socio-economic status. Early diagnosis and an understanding of the predictors of being probable ADHD are needed to direct appropriate identification and intervention efforts. These screening efforts should be especially addressed to vulnerable groups, particularly low socio-economic status families and younger children.

Probability of reduced renal function after contrast-enhanced CT: a model based on serum creatinine level, patient age, and estimated glomerular filtration rate.

PubMed

Herts, Brian R; Schneider, Erika; Obuchowski, Nancy; Poggio, Emilio; Jain, Anil; Baker, Mark E

2009-08-01

The objectives of our study were to develop a model to predict the probability of reduced renal function after outpatient contrast-enhanced CT (CECT)--based on patient age, sex, and race and on serum creatinine level before CT or directly based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) before CT--and to determine the relationship between patients with changes in creatinine level that characterize contrast-induced nephropathy and patients with reduced GFR after CECT. Of 5,187 outpatients who underwent CECT, 963 (18.6%) had serum creatinine levels obtained within 6 months before and 4 days after CECT. The estimated GFR was calculated before and after CT using the four-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation. Pre-CT serum creatinine level, age, race, sex, and pre-CT estimated GFR were tested using multiple-variable logistic regression models to determine the probability of having an estimated GFR of < 60 and < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2) after CECT. Two thirds of the patients were used to create and one third to test the models. We also determined discordance between patients who met standard definitions of contrast-induced nephropathy and those with a reduced estimated GFR after CECT. Significant (p < 0.002) predictors for a post-CT estimated GFR of < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) were age, race, sex, pre-CT serum creatinine level, and pre-CT estimated GFR. Sex, serum creatinine level, and pre-CT estimated GFR were significant factors (p < 0.001) for predicting a post-CT estimated GFR of < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2). The probability is [exp(y) / (1 + exp(y))], where y = 6.21 - (0.10 x pre-CT estimated GFR) for an estimated GFR of < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), and y = 3.66 - (0.087 x pre-CT estimated GFR) for an estimated GFR of < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2). A discrepancy between those who met contrast-induced nephropathy criteria by creatinine changes and those with a post-CT estimated GFR of < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was detected in 208 of the 963 patients (21.6%). The

Probability judgments of agency: rational or irrational?

PubMed

Schmidt, Thomas; Heumüller, Vera C

2010-03-01

We studied how people attribute action outcomes to their own actions under conditions of uncertainty. Participants chose between left and right keypresses to produce an action effect (a corresponding left or right light), while a computer player made a simultaneous keypress decision. In each trial, a random generator determined which of the players controlled the action effect at varying probabilities, and participants then judged which player had produced it. Participants' effect control ranged from 20% to 80%, varied blockwise, and they could use trial-by-trial feedback to optimize the accuracy of their agency judgments. Participants tended to attribute action effects to themselves (agency bias), probably reflecting a rational guessing strategy of always naming the more likely player. However, participants systematically neglected information favoring the computer player as the agent, even under conditions where this bias could only harm judgment accuracy. We conclude that agency biases have both rational and irrational components.

Transition probabilities of health states for workers in Malaysia using a Markov chain model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samsuddin, Shamshimah; Ismail, Noriszura

2017-04-01

The aim of our study is to estimate the transition probabilities of health states for workers in Malaysia who contribute to the Employment Injury Scheme under the Social Security Organization Malaysia using the Markov chain model. Our study uses four states of health (active, temporary disability, permanent disability and death) based on the data collected from the longitudinal studies of workers in Malaysia for 5 years. The transition probabilities vary by health state, age and gender. The results show that men employees are more likely to have higher transition probabilities to any health state compared to women employees. The transition probabilities can be used to predict the future health of workers in terms of a function of current age, gender and health state.

Assessing the Relationship Between Chronic Health Conditions and Productivity Loss Trajectories

PubMed Central

Pranksy, Glenn

2014-01-01

Objective: To examine the relationship between health conditions and the risk for membership in longitudinal trajectories of productivity loss. Methods: Trajectories of productivity loss from the ages of 25 to 44 years, previously identified in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), were combined with information on health conditions from the age 40 years health module in the NLSY79. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the relative risk of being in the low-risk, early-onset increasing risk, late-onset increasing risk, or high-risk trajectories compared with the no-risk trajectory for having various health conditions. Results: The trajectories with the greatest probability of productivity loss longitudinally had a greater prevalence of the individual health conditions and a greater total number of health conditions experienced. Conclusions: Health conditions are associated with specific longitudinal patterns of experiencing productivity loss. PMID:25479294

Chronic health conditions and work ability in the ageing workforce: the impact of work conditions, psychosocial factors and perceived health.

PubMed

Koolhaas, Wendy; van der Klink, Jac J L; de Boer, Michiel R; Groothoff, Johan W; Brouwer, Sandra

2014-05-01

The aim of this study was to determine the influence of work conditions, psychosocial factors and perceived health on the association between the presence of a chronic health condition and (single-item) work ability among workers aged 45 years and older. In addition, we aimed to examine variables associated with work ability for workers with and without a chronic health condition separately. The data of this cross-sectional study were obtained from 5,247 workers aged 45 years and older in five different work sectors. Work ability was assessed with the first item of the Work Ability Index. The presence of a chronic health condition was assessed by self-report. Independent variables in the multivariable linear regression analysis were work conditions, psychosocial factors and perceived health status. The presence of a chronic health condition was negatively associated with work ability (B = -0.848). The strength of this association slightly attenuated after subsequently adding individual characteristics (B = -0.824), work conditions (B = -0.805) and more so after adding psychosocial factors (B = -0.704) and especially perceived health variables (B = -0.049) to the model. Variables associated with work ability for workers with and without a chronic health condition were similar. Perceived health and psychosocial factors, rather than work conditions, explained the association between the presence of a chronic health condition and work ability. Substantial differences in variables associated with work ability for workers with and without a chronic health condition were not found. Based on the lower mean scores for workers with a chronic health condition and work ability as well for predictors, these workers might have the most benefit by a policy focussing on enhancing these associated variables.

Modelling detection probabilities to evaluate management and control tools for an invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christy, M.T.; Yackel Adams, A.A.; Rodda, G.H.; Savidge, J.A.; Tyrrell, C.L.

2010-01-01

For most ecologists, detection probability (p) is a nuisance variable that must be modelled to estimate the state variable of interest (i.e. survival, abundance, or occupancy). However, in the realm of invasive species control, the rate of detection and removal is the rate-limiting step for management of this pervasive environmental problem. For strategic planning of an eradication (removal of every individual), one must identify the least likely individual to be removed, and determine the probability of removing it. To evaluate visual searching as a control tool for populations of the invasive brown treesnake Boiga irregularis, we designed a mark-recapture study to evaluate detection probability as a function of time, gender, size, body condition, recent detection history, residency status, searcher team and environmental covariates. We evaluated these factors using 654 captures resulting from visual detections of 117 snakes residing in a 5-ha semi-forested enclosure on Guam, fenced to prevent immigration and emigration of snakes but not their prey. Visual detection probability was low overall (= 0??07 per occasion) but reached 0??18 under optimal circumstances. Our results supported sex-specific differences in detectability that were a quadratic function of size, with both small and large females having lower detection probabilities than males of those sizes. There was strong evidence for individual periodic changes in detectability of a few days duration, roughly doubling detection probability (comparing peak to non-elevated detections). Snakes in poor body condition had estimated mean detection probabilities greater than snakes with high body condition. Search teams with high average detection rates exhibited detection probabilities about twice that of search teams with low average detection rates. Surveys conducted with bright moonlight and strong wind gusts exhibited moderately decreased probabilities of detecting snakes. Synthesis and applications. By

Oil spill contamination probability in the southeastern Levantine basin.

PubMed

Goldman, Ron; Biton, Eli; Brokovich, Eran; Kark, Salit; Levin, Noam

2015-02-15

Recent gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean Sea led to multiple operations with substantial economic interest, and with them there is a risk of oil spills and their potential environmental impacts. To examine the potential spatial distribution of this threat, we created seasonal maps of the probability of oil spill pollution reaching an area in the Israeli coastal and exclusive economic zones, given knowledge of its initial sources. We performed simulations of virtual oil spills using realistic atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The resulting maps show dominance of the alongshore northerly current, which causes the high probability areas to be stretched parallel to the coast, increasing contamination probability downstream of source points. The seasonal westerly wind forcing determines how wide the high probability areas are, and may also restrict these to a small coastal region near source points. Seasonal variability in probability distribution, oil state, and pollution time is also discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Collision probability at low altitudes resulting from elliptical orbits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kessler, Donald J.

1990-01-01

The probability of collision between a spacecraft and another object is calculated for various altitude and orbit conditions, and factors affecting the probability are discussed. It is shown that a collision can only occur when the spacecraft is located at an altitude which is between the perigee and apogee altitudes of the object and that the probability per unit time is largest when the orbit of the object is nearly circular. However, at low altitudes, the atmospheric drag causes changes with time of the perigee and the apogee, such that circular orbits have a much shorter lifetime than many of the elliptical orbits. Thus, when the collision probability is integrated over the lifetime of the orbiting object, some elliptical orbits are found to have much higher total collision probability than circular orbits. Rocket bodies used to boost payloads from low earth orbit to geosynchronous orbit are an example of objects in these elliptical orbits.

Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vourdas, A.

2014-08-15

The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H{sub 1},H{sub 2}), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H{sub 1}),P(H{sub 2}), to the subspacesmore » H{sub 1}, H{sub 2}. As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities.« less

The Notions of Chance and Probabilities in Preschoolers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nikiforidou, Zoi; Pange, Jenny

2010-01-01

Chance, randomness and probability constitute statistical notions that are interrelated and characterize the logicomathematical thinking of children. Traditional theories support that probabilistic thinking evolves after the age of 7. However, recent research has underlined that children, as young as 4, may possess and develop basic notions,…

The relationship between maternal education and reported childhood conditions.

PubMed

Berchick, Edward R

2016-12-01

Children of more-educated mothers tend to be healthier than children of less-educated mothers. However, in the United States, evidence for this relationship largely focuses on summary measures of health, such as subjective health status, birth weight, and height. Few studies have examined the relationship between mothers' education and children's reported conditions, the health metric that underlies many policy decisions concerning population health. Contrary to stylized facts about socioeconomic gradients in health, higher detection and reporting rates may lead to higher reporting rates among children of more-educated mothers, despite their better underlying health. This reporting pattern that might not mirror gradients for summary health measures. To examine this possibility, I investigate the association between maternal education and nine health conditions in the 1998-2014 National Health Interview Surveys (n = 176,097). I consider variation in the maternal education gradient across the specific reported conditions that children experience, paying particular attention to how patterns differ across children's ages. Results suggest that, unlike for the income gradient in child health, the relationship between maternal education and reported conditions varies in magnitude and direction across conditions. With some exceptions, the probability of reporting a diagnosed condition increases with maternal schooling. For some diagnoses, like asthma, this relationship is curvilinear, with an inverse gradient for children of the most educated mothers. However, the probability of reporting conditions that require neither diagnosis nor substantial parent-child involvement for detection tends to be flat across maternal education. Contrary to expectations, these relationships tend to be more pronounced for children who are 6 years of age or older than for younger children. These results expand understanding of the production and reporting of early-life health inequalities

Probability 1/e

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

2011-01-01

Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

Detection of the toughest: Pedestrian injury risk as a smooth function of age.

PubMed

Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko

2017-07-04

Though it is common to refer to age-specific groups (e.g., children, adults, elderly), smooth trends conditional on age are mainly ignored in the literature. The present study examines the pedestrian injury risk in full-frontal pedestrian-to-passenger car accidents and incorporates age-in addition to collision speed and injury severity-as a plug-in parameter. Recent work introduced a model for pedestrian injury risk functions using explicit formulae with easily interpretable model parameters. This model is expanded by pedestrian age as another model parameter. Using the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) to obtain age-specific risk proportions, the model parameters are fitted to the raw data and then smoothed by broken-line regression. The approach supplies explicit probabilities for pedestrian injury risk conditional on pedestrian age, collision speed, and injury severity under investigation. All results yield consistency to each other in the sense that risks for more severe injuries are less probable than those for less severe injuries. As a side product, the approach indicates specific ages at which the risk behavior fundamentally changes. These threshold values can be interpreted as the most robust ages for pedestrians. The obtained age-wise risk functions can be aggregated and adapted to any population. The presented approach is formulated in such general terms that in can be directly used for other data sets or additional parameters; for example, the pedestrian's sex. Thus far, no other study using age as a plug-in parameter can be found.

Fitness prospects: effects of age, sex and recruitment age on reproductive value in a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Zhang, He; Rebke, Maren; Becker, Peter H; Bouwhuis, Sandra

2015-01-01

Reproductive value is an integrated measure of survival and reproduction fundamental to understanding life-history evolution and population dynamics, but little is known about intraspecific variation in reproductive value and factors explaining such variation, if any. By applying generalized additive mixed models to longitudinal individual-based data of the common tern Sterna hirundo, we estimated age-specific annual survival probability, breeding probability and reproductive performance, based on which we calculated age-specific reproductive values. We investigated effects of sex and recruitment age (RA) on each trait. We found age effects on all traits, with survival and breeding probability declining with age, while reproductive performance first improved with age before levelling off. We only found a very small, marginally significant, sex effect on survival probability, but evidence for decreasing age-specific breeding probability and reproductive performance with RA. As a result, males had slightly lower age-specific reproductive values than females, while birds of both sexes that recruited at the earliest ages of 2 and 3 years (i.e. 54% of the tern population) had somewhat higher fitness prospects than birds recruiting at later ages. While the RA effects on breeding probability and reproductive performance were statistically significant, these effects were not large enough to translate to significant effects on reproductive value. Age-specific reproductive values provided evidence for senescence, which came with fitness costs in a range of 17-21% for the sex-RA groups. Our study suggests that intraspecific variation in reproductive value may exist, but that, in the common tern, the differences are small. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

How FSH and AMH reflect probabilities of oocyte numbers in poor prognosis patients with small oocyte yields.

PubMed

Gleicher, Norbert; Darmon, Sarah K; Kushnir, Vitaly A; Weghofer, Andrea; Wang, Qi; Zhang, Lin; Albertini, David F; Barad, David H

2016-11-01

In poor prognosis patients undergoing in vitro fertilization, advance determinations of likely oocyte yields are especially important since oocyte numbers to large degree determine in vitro fertilization cycle outcomes. Based on baseline follicle stimulating hormone and anti-müllerian hormone levels at time of initial presentation, we here, therefore, determined at all ages the probabilities of obtaining 1-≥5 oocytes in a retrospective analysis of 1554 consecutive patients undergoing in vitro fertilization cycles at an academically affiliated private fertility center. At lowest levels (≤2.5 mIU/mL), Follicle stimulating hormone at all ages was highly predictable for ≥1 oocyte (88-96 %). Probabilities declined and diverged between ages with increasing follicle stimulating hormone, though narrowed again at high follicle stimulating hormone. Anti-Müllerian hormone demonstrated at higher levels (2.5-≥5 ng/ml) at all ages almost perfect probabilities (99-100 %). With declining anti-Müllerian hormone, age categories, however, increasingly diverged, though to lesser degree than follicle stimulating hormone. In poor prognosis patients, follicle stimulating hormone and anti-Müllerian hormone, thus, offer at different ages very specific probabilities for retrieval of 1-≥5 oocytes. Since oocyte numbers are associated with embryo numbers, and numbers of transferable embryos with live birth rates, here presented probability tables should facilitate improved prognostication of poor prognosis patients. Discrepancies in here reported probabilities between follicle stimulating hormone and anti-müllerian hormone also further define follicle stimulating hormone and anti-müllerian hormone in their respective abilities to represent functional ovarian reserve at different ages.

Age-dependent associations between androgenetic alopecia and prostate cancer risk.

PubMed

Muller, David C; Giles, Graham G; Sinclair, Rod; Hopper, John L; English, Dallas R; Severi, Gianluca

2013-02-01

Both prostate cancer and androgenetic alopecia are strongly age-related conditions that are considered to be androgen dependent, but studies of the relationship between them have yielded inconsistent results. We aimed to assess whether androgenetic alopecia at ages 20 and 40 years are associated with risk of prostate cancer. At a follow-up of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, men were asked to assess their hair pattern at ages 20 and 40 years relative to eight categories in showcards. Cases were men notified to the Victorian Cancer Registry with prostate cancer diagnosed between cohort enrollment (1990-1994) and follow-up attendance (2003-2009). Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate age-varying HRs and predicted cumulative probabilities of prostate cancer by androgenetic alopecia categories. Of 9,448 men that attended follow-up and provided data on androgenetic alopecia, we identified 476 prostate cancer cases during a median follow-up of 11 years four months. Cumulative probability of prostate cancer was greater at all ages up to 76 years, for men with vertex versus no androgenetic alopecia at age of 40 years. At age of 76 years, the estimated probabilities converged to 0.15. Vertex androgenetic alopecia at 40 years was also associated with younger age of diagnosis for prostate cancer cases. Vertex androgenetic alopecia at age of 40 years might be a marker of increased risk of early-onset prostate cancer. If confirmed, these results suggest that the apparently conflicting findings of previous studies might be explained by failure to adequately model the age-varying nature of the association between androgenetic alopecia and prostate cancer.

Skill of Ensemble Seasonal Probability Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Leonard A.; Binter, Roman; Du, Hailiang; Niehoerster, Falk

2010-05-01

In operational forecasting, the computational complexity of large simulation models is, ideally, justified by enhanced performance over simpler models. We will consider probability forecasts and contrast the skill of ENSEMBLES-based seasonal probability forecasts of interest to the finance sector (specifically temperature forecasts for Nino 3.4 and the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR)). The ENSEMBLES model simulations will be contrasted against forecasts from statistical models based on the observations (climatological distributions) and empirical dynamics based on the observations but conditioned on the current state (dynamical climatology). For some start dates, individual ENSEMBLES models yield significant skill even at a lead-time of 14 months. The nature of this skill is discussed, and chances of application are noted. Questions surrounding the interpretation of probability forecasts based on these multi-model ensemble simulations are then considered; the distributions considered are formed by kernel dressing the ensemble and blending with the climatology. The sources of apparent (RMS) skill in distributions based on multi-model simulations is discussed, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of "zero-skill" models in the long range can improve Root-Mean-Square-Error scores, casting some doubt on the common justification for the claim that all models should be included in forming an operational probability forecast. It is argued that the rational response varies with lead time.

Effects of age condition on the distribution and integrity of inorganic fillers in dental resin composites.

PubMed

D'Alpino, Paulo Henrique Perlatti; Svizero, Nádia da Rocha; Bim Júnior, Odair; Valduga, Claudete Justina; Graeff, Carlos Frederico de Oliveira; Sauro, Salvatore

2016-06-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the distribution of the filler size along with the zeta potential, and the integrity of silane-bonded filler surface in different types of restorative dental composites as a function of the material age condition. Filtek P60 (hybrid composite), Filtek Z250 (small-particle filled composite), Filtek Z350XT (nanofilled composite), and Filtek Silorane (silorane composite) (3M ESPE) were tested at different stage condition (i.e., fresh/new, aged, and expired). Composites were submitted to an accelerated aging protocol (Arrhenius model). Specimens were obtained by first diluting each composite specimen in ethanol and then dispersed in potassium chloride solution (0.001 mol%). Composite fillers were characterized for their zeta potential, mean particle size, size distribution, via poly-dispersion dynamic light scattering. The integrity of the silane-bonded surface of the fillers was characterized by FTIR. The material age influenced significantly the outcomes; Zeta potential, filler characteristics, and silane integrity varied both after aging and expiration. Silorane presented the broadest filler distribution and lowest zeta potential. Nanofilled and silorane composites exhibited decreased peak intensities in the FTIR analysis, indicating a deficiency of the silane integrity after aging or expiry time. Regardless to the material condition, the hybrid and the small-particle-filled composites were more stable overtime as no significant alteration in filler size distribution, diameter, and zeta potential occurred. A deficiency in the silane integrity in the nanofilled and silorane composites seems to be affected by the material stage condition. The materials conditions tested in this study influenced the filler size distribution, the zeta potential, and integrity of the silane adsorbed on fillers in the nanofilled and silorane composites. Thus, this may result in a decrease of the clinical performance of aforementioned composites, in

Probability machines: consistent probability estimation using nonparametric learning machines.

PubMed

Malley, J D; Kruppa, J; Dasgupta, A; Malley, K G; Ziegler, A

2012-01-01

Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications.

Estimating probabilities of reservoir storage for the upper Delaware River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.

1981-01-01

A technique for estimating conditional probabilities of reservoir system storage is described and applied to the upper Delaware River Basin. The results indicate that there is a 73 percent probability that the three major New York City reservoirs (Pepacton, Cannonsville, and Neversink) would be full by June 1, 1981, and only a 9 percent probability that storage would return to the ' drought warning ' sector of the operations curve sometime in the next year. In contrast, if restrictions are lifted and there is an immediate return to normal operating policies, the probability of the reservoir system being full by June 1 is 37 percent and the probability that storage would return to the ' drought warning ' sector in the next year is 30 percent. (USGS)

26 CFR 1.410(a)-3 - Minimum age and service conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... age and service conditions. (a) General rule. Except as provided by paragraph (b) or (c) of this... which the employee completes 1 year of service. (b) Special rule for plan with 3-year 100 percent... of service. The date on which the employee completes 3 years of service. (c) Special rule for...

Technology-Enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dinov, Ivo D.; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like "What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed?" This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as "What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that…

Children's probability intuitions: understanding the expected value of complex gambles.

PubMed

Schlottmann, A

2001-01-01

Two experiments used Information Integration Theory to study how children judge expected value of complex gambles in which alternative outcomes have different prizes. Six-year-olds, 9-year-olds and adults (N = 73 in Study 1, N = 28 in Study 2) saw chance games that involved shaking a marble in a bicolored tube. One prize was won if the marble stopped on blue, another if it stopped on yellow. Children judged how happy a puppet playing the game would be, with the prizes and probability of the blue and yellow outcomes varied factorially. Three main results appeared in both studies: First, participants in all age groups used the normatively prescribed multiplication rule for integrating probability and value of each individual outcome--a striking finding because multiplicative reasoning does not usually appear before 8 years of age in other domains. Second, all age groups based judgment of overall expected value meaningfully on both alternative outcomes, but there were individual differences--many participants deviated from the normative addition rule, showing risk seeking and risk averse patterns of judgment similar to the risk attitudes often found with adults. Third, even the youngest children took probability to be an abstract rather than physical property of the game. Overall, in contrast to the traditional view, the present results demonstrate functional understanding of probability and expected value in children as young as 5 or 6. These results contribute to the growing evidence on children's intuitive reasoning competence. This intuition can, on the one hand, support surprisingly precocious performance in young children, but it may also contribute to the biases evident in adults' judgment and decision.

A generalized electron energy probability function for inductively coupled plasmas under conditions of nonlocal electron kinetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mouchtouris, S.; Kokkoris, G.

2018-01-01

A generalized equation for the electron energy probability function (EEPF) of inductively coupled Ar plasmas is proposed under conditions of nonlocal electron kinetics and diffusive cooling. The proposed equation describes the local EEPF in a discharge and the independent variable is the kinetic energy of electrons. The EEPF consists of a bulk and a depleted tail part and incorporates the effect of the plasma potential, Vp, and pressure. Due to diffusive cooling, the break point of the EEPF is eVp. The pressure alters the shape of the bulk and the slope of the tail part. The parameters of the proposed EEPF are extracted by fitting to measure EEPFs (at one point in the reactor) at different pressures. By coupling the proposed EEPF with a hybrid plasma model, measurements in the gaseous electronics conference reference reactor concerning (a) the electron density and temperature and the plasma potential, either spatially resolved or at different pressure (10-50 mTorr) and power, and (b) the ion current density of the electrode, are well reproduced. The effect of the choice of the EEPF on the results is investigated by a comparison to an EEPF coming from the Boltzmann equation (local electron kinetics approach) and to a Maxwellian EEPF. The accuracy of the results and the fact that the proposed EEPF is predefined renders its use a reliable alternative with a low computational cost compared to stochastic electron kinetic models at low pressure conditions, which can be extended to other gases and/or different electron heating mechanisms.

Test for age-specificity in survival of the common tern

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nisbet, I.C.T.; Cam, E.

2002-01-01

Much effort in life-history theory has been addressed to the dependence of life-history traits on age, especially the phenomenon of senescence and its evolution. Although senescent declines in survival are well documented in humans and in domestic and laboratory animals, evidence for their occurrence and importance in wild animal species remains limited and equivocal. Several recent papers have suggested that methodological issues may contribute to this problem, and have encouraged investigators to improve sampling designs and to analyse their data using recently developed approaches to modelling of capture-mark-recapture data. Here we report on a three-year, two-site, mark-recapture study of known-aged common terns (Sterna hirundo) in the north-eastern USA. The study was nested within a long-term ecological study in which large numbers of chicks had been banded in each year for > 25 years. We used a range of models to test the hypothesis of an influence of age on survival probability. We also tested for a possible influence of sex on survival. The cross-sectional design of the study (one year's parameter estimates) avoided the possible confounding of effects of age and time. The study was conducted at a time when one of the study sites was being colonized and numbers were increasing rapidly. We detected two-way movements between the sites and estimated movement probabilities in the year for which they could be modelled. We also obtained limited data on emigration from our study area to more distant sites. We found no evidence that survival depended on either sex or age, except that survival was lower among the youngest birds (ages 2-3 years). Despite the large number of birds included in the study (1599 known-aged birds, 2367 total), confidence limits on estimates of survival probability were wide, especially for the oldest age-classes, so that a slight decline in survival late in life could not have been detected. In addition, the cross-sectional design of this

The condition of a finite Markov chain and perturbation bounds for the limiting probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, C. D., Jr.

1979-01-01

The inequalities bounding the relative error the norm of w- w squiggly/the norm of w are exhibited by a very simple function of E and A. Let T denote the transition matrix of an ergodic chain, C, and let A = I - T. Let E be a perturbation matrix such that T squiggly = T - E is also the transition matrix of an ergodic chain, C squiggly. Let w and w squiggly denote the limiting probability (row) vectors for C and C squiggly. The inequality is the best one possible. This bound can be significant in the numerical determination of the limiting probabilities for an ergodic chain. In addition to presenting a sharp bound for the norm of w-w squiggly/the norm of w an explicit expression for w squiggly will be derived in which w squiggly is given as a function of E, A, w and some other related terms.

Probabilities for time-dependent properties in classical and quantum mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Losada, Marcelo; Vanni, Leonardo; Laura, Roberto

2013-05-01

We present a formalism which allows one to define probabilities for expressions that involve properties at different times for classical and quantum systems and we study its lattice structure. The formalism is based on the notion of time translation of properties. In the quantum case, the properties involved should satisfy compatibility conditions in order to obtain well-defined probabilities. The formalism is applied to describe the double-slit experiment.

Impact of socioeconomic status and medical conditions on health and healthcare utilization among aging Ghanaians.

PubMed

Saeed, Bashiru Ii; Xicang, Zhao; Yawson, Alfred Edwin; Nguah, Samuel Blay; Nsowah-Nuamah, Nicholas N N

2015-03-20

This study attempts to examine the impact of socioeconomic and medical conditions in health and healthcare utilization among older adults in Ghana. Five separate models with varying input variables were estimated for each response variable. Data (Wave 1 data) were drawn from the World Health Organization Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) conducted during 2007-2008 and included a total of 4770 respondents aged 50+ and 803 aged 18-49 in Ghana. Ordered logits was estimated for self-rated health, and binary logits for functional limitation and healthcare utilization. Our results show that the study provides enough grounds for further research on the interplay between socioeconomic and medical conditions on one hand and the health of the aged on the other. Controlling for socioeconomic status substantially contributes significantly to utilization. Also, aged women experience worse health than men, as shown by functioning assessment, self-rated health, chronic conditions and functional limitations. Women have higher rates of healthcare utilization, as shown by significantly higher rates of hospitalization and outpatient encounters. Expansion of the national health insurance scheme to cover the entire older population--for those in both formal and informal employments--is likely to garner increased access and improved health states for the older population.

Serum homocysteine levels in patients with probable vascular dementia.

PubMed

Alajbegović, Salem; Lepara, Orhan; Hadžović-Džuvo, Almira; Mutevelić-Turković, Alma; Alajbegović, Lejla; Zaćiragić, Asija; Avdagić, Nesina; Valjevac, Amina; Babić, Nermina; Dervišević, Amela

2017-08-01

Aim To investigate total homocysteine (tHcy) serum concentration in patients with probable vascular dementia (VD) and in agematched controls, as well as to determine an association between tHcy serum concentration and cognitive impairment in patients with probable VD. Methods Serum concentration of tHcy was determined by the Fluorescence Polarization Immunoassay on the AxSYM System. Cognitive impairment was tested by the Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE) score. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated for each subject included in the study. Results Age, systolic, diastolic blood pressure and BMI did not differ significantly between the two groups. Mean serum tHcy concentration in the control group of subjects was 13.35 µmol/L, while in patients with probable VD it was significantly higher, 19.45 µmol/L (p=0.002). A negative but insignificant association between serum tHcy concentration and cognitive impairment in patients with probable VD was found. Conclusion Increased tHcy concentration in patients with probable VD suggests the possible independent role of Hcy in the pathogenesis of VD. Copyright© by the Medical Assotiation of Zenica-Doboj Canton.

The Development of Skin Conductance Fear Conditioning in Children from Ages 3 to 8 Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gao, Yu; Raine, Adrian; Venables, Peter H.; Dawson, Michael E.; Mednick, Sarnoff A.

2010-01-01

Although fear conditioning is an important psychological construct implicated in behavioral and emotional problems, little is known about how it develops in early childhood. Using a differential, partial reinforcement conditioning paradigm, this longitudinal study assessed skin conductance conditioned responses in 200 children at ages 3, 4, 5, 6,…

Gravity and count probabilities in an expanding universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bouchet, Francois R.; Hernquist, Lars

1992-01-01

The time evolution of nonlinear clustering on large scales in cold dark matter, hot dark matter, and white noise models of the universe is investigated using N-body simulations performed with a tree code. Count probabilities in cubic cells are determined as functions of the cell size and the clustering state (redshift), and comparisons are made with various theoretical models. We isolate the features that appear to be the result of gravitational instability, those that depend on the initial conditions, and those that are likely a consequence of numerical limitations. More specifically, we study the development of skewness, kurtosis, and the fifth moment in relation to variance, the dependence of the void probability on time as well as on sparseness of sampling, and the overall shape of the count probability distribution. Implications of our results for theoretical and observational studies are discussed.

Aging ballistic Lévy walks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magdziarz, Marcin; Zorawik, Tomasz

2017-02-01

Aging can be observed for numerous physical systems. In such systems statistical properties [like probability distribution, mean square displacement (MSD), first-passage time] depend on a time span ta between the initialization and the beginning of observations. In this paper we study aging properties of ballistic Lévy walks and two closely related jump models: wait-first and jump-first. We calculate explicitly their probability distributions and MSDs. It turns out that despite similarities these models react very differently to the delay ta. Aging weakly affects the shape of probability density function and MSD of standard Lévy walks. For the jump models the shape of the probability density function is changed drastically. Moreover for the wait-first jump model we observe a different behavior of MSD when ta≪t and ta≫t .

Measurement of Survival Time in Brachionus Rotifers: Synchronization of Maternal Conditions.

PubMed

Kaneko, Gen; Yoshinaga, Tatsuki; Gribble, Kristin E; Welch, David M; Ushio, Hideki

2016-07-22

Rotifers are microscopic cosmopolitan zooplankton used as models in ecotoxicological and aging studies due to their several advantages such as short lifespan, ease of culture, and parthenogenesis that enables clonal culture. However, caution is required when measuring their survival time as it is affected by maternal age and maternal feeding conditions. Here we provide a protocol for powerful and reproducible measurement of the survival time in Brachionus rotifers following a careful synchronization of culture conditions over several generations. Empirically, poor synchronization results in early mortality and a gradual decrease in survival rate, thus resulting in weak statistical power. Indeed, under such conditions, calorie restriction (CR) failed to significantly extend the lifespan of B. plicatilis although CR-induced longevity has been demonstrated with well-synchronized rotifer samples in past and present studies. This protocol is probably useful for other invertebrate models, including the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, because maternal age effects have also been reported in these species.

Measurement of Survival Time in Brachionus Rotifers: Synchronization of Maternal Conditions

PubMed Central

Kaneko, Gen; Yoshinaga, Tatsuki; Gribble, Kristin E.; Welch, David M.; Ushio, Hideki

2016-01-01

Rotifers are microscopic cosmopolitan zooplankton used as models in ecotoxicological and aging studies due to their several advantages such as short lifespan, ease of culture, and parthenogenesis that enables clonal culture. However, caution is required when measuring their survival time as it is affected by maternal age and maternal feeding conditions. Here we provide a protocol for powerful and reproducible measurement of the survival time in Brachionus rotifers following a careful synchronization of culture conditions over several generations. Empirically, poor synchronization results in early mortality and a gradual decrease in survival rate, thus resulting in weak statistical power. Indeed, under such conditions, calorie restriction (CR) failed to significantly extend the lifespan of B. plicatilis although CR-induced longevity has been demonstrated with well-synchronized rotifer samples in past and present studies. This protocol is probably useful for other invertebrate models, including the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, because maternal age effects have also been reported in these species. PMID:27500471

Preliminary results of a withdrawal and detoxification therapeutic regimen in patients with probable chronic migraine and probable medication overuse headache.

PubMed

Trucco, Marco; Meineri, Piero; Ruiz, Luigi

2005-09-01

Chronic migraine (CM) is an invalidating condition affecting a significant population of headache sufferers, frequently associated with medication overuse headache (MOH). Controlled trials and guidelines for the treatment of MOH are currently not available. We studied the efficacy of a therapeutic regimen for the withdrawal of the overused drug and detoxification in a sample of patients suffering from probable CM and probable MOH during admission in eight hospitals of Piemonte-Liguria-Valle d'Aosta. Fifty patients, 42 females (84%) and 8 males (16%), mean age at observation 50.66+/-13.08 years, affected by probable CM and daily medication overuse following IHS diagnostic criteria were treated as inpatients or in a day hospital. Headache index (HI) and daily drug intake (DDI) were used for evaluating the severity of headache and medication overuse. The patients were treated by abrupt discontinuation of the overused drug and by a therapeutic protocol including i.v. hydration, dexamethasone, metoclopramide and benzodiazepines for 7-10 days. Prophylactic medication was started immediately after admission. Analgesics or triptans were used under medical control only in cases of severe rebound headache. Diagnostic protocol included routine blood tests (at admission and at discharge), dosage of B12 and folic acid. Patients underwent follow-up controls one, three and six months after discharge. The initial diagnosis was probable CM in almost all patients included in the study (41 patients); in nine patients the diagnosis was not specified (coded only as CDH). The overused medications were simple analgesics in 17 cases (34%), combination analgesics in 19 cases (38%), triptans alone or with analgesics in 13 cases (26%) and ergotamine in 2 cases (4%). We collected data from 39 patients at first follow-up (1 month), 32 after 3 months and 14 after 6 months. Mean HI was 0.91 at admission, 0.22 at discharge, 0.38 after 30 days, 0.46 after 3 months and 0.48 after 6 months. Mean DDI

Anomalous Growth of Aging Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grebenkov, Denis S.

2016-04-01

We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability q_k depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's "age" in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities q_k at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

The association between chronological age, age at injury and employment: Is there a mediating effect of secondary health conditions?

PubMed

Marti, A; Boes, S; Lay, V; Escorpizo, R; Reuben Escorpizo, P T; Trezzini, B

2016-03-01

Cross-sectional observational study with data from the 2012 community-based survey of the Swiss Spinal Cord Injury Cohort Study. To examine the relationships between chronological age, age at injury, secondary health conditions (SHCs) and paid employment. Community setting in Switzerland. A total of 1159 individuals of working age (16-63 years for women and 64 years for men) with traumatic or non-traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) were included in the study. Direct and indirect (via SHCs) effects of chronological age and age at injury on paid employment were tested using a decomposition method for logistic regression models. Both chronological age groups (age 35-49 and 50-63/64 years) and the group with age at injury beyond 40 years showed negative direct effects on employment status. A partial indirect effect (mediation) via chronic pain was found in the group with the highest chronological age (>50 years). Furthermore, pressure ulcer, pain and urinary tract infection were negatively related with employment in both models, that is, chronological age and employment and age at injury and employment. Being older and having a higher age at injury directly affects whether an individual is employed. Pain is mediating the relation between chronological age and employment. Furthermore, pressure ulcer, chronic pain and urinary tract infection directly reduce the likelihood to be employed and, therefore, represent important intervention targets in efforts to maintain or engage in employment of individuals with SCI.

14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224 Section 417.224 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... phase of normal flight or when any anomalous condition exhibits the potential for a stage or its debris...

14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224 Section 417.224 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... phase of normal flight or when any anomalous condition exhibits the potential for a stage or its debris...

14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224 Section 417.224 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... phase of normal flight or when any anomalous condition exhibits the potential for a stage or its debris...

14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224 Section 417.224 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... phase of normal flight or when any anomalous condition exhibits the potential for a stage or its debris...

14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224 Section 417.224 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... phase of normal flight or when any anomalous condition exhibits the potential for a stage or its debris...

Quantum temporal probabilities in tunneling systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anastopoulos, Charis, E-mail: anastop@physics.upatras.gr; Savvidou, Ntina, E-mail: ksavvidou@physics.upatras.gr

We study the temporal aspects of quantum tunneling as manifested in time-of-arrival experiments in which the detected particle tunnels through a potential barrier. In particular, we present a general method for constructing temporal probabilities in tunneling systems that (i) defines ‘classical’ time observables for quantum systems and (ii) applies to relativistic particles interacting through quantum fields. We show that the relevant probabilities are defined in terms of specific correlation functions of the quantum field associated with tunneling particles. We construct a probability distribution with respect to the time of particle detection that contains all information about the temporal aspects ofmore » the tunneling process. In specific cases, this probability distribution leads to the definition of a delay time that, for parity-symmetric potentials, reduces to the phase time of Bohm and Wigner. We apply our results to piecewise constant potentials, by deriving the appropriate junction conditions on the points of discontinuity. For the double square potential, in particular, we demonstrate the existence of (at least) two physically relevant time parameters, the delay time and a decay rate that describes the escape of particles trapped in the inter-barrier region. Finally, we propose a resolution to the paradox of apparent superluminal velocities for tunneling particles. We demonstrate that the idea of faster-than-light speeds in tunneling follows from an inadmissible use of classical reasoning in the description of quantum systems. -- Highlights: •Present a general methodology for deriving temporal probabilities in tunneling systems. •Treatment applies to relativistic particles interacting through quantum fields. •Derive a new expression for tunneling time. •Identify new time parameters relevant to tunneling. •Propose a resolution of the superluminality paradox in tunneling.« less

Changes in bone tissue under conditions of hypokinesia and in connection with age

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Podrushnyak, E. P.; Suslov, E. I.

1980-01-01

X-ray micrography was used to study the optical density of the blackening of X-ray photographs made of five bones in 9 young people (ages 24 to 29) before and after strict bed rest for 16 to 37 days. Photometric studies of the X-ray film determined the relative concentration of bone structure before and after hypokinesia. In addition, the bone tissues of 25 cadavers of practically healthy individuals (aged 18 to 70) who died from injuries were investigated using X-ray structural analysis. Results show that the reaction to the state of hypokinesia is not uniform in different individuals and is quite often directly reversed. It was established that pronounced osteoporosis can be found in a relatively short time after conditions of hypokinesia in healthy young individuals. Results show that the stabilization of the crystalline structure of hydroxyapatite, especially its crystal formation, is finished by the age of 20 to 25. From 25 to 60, the crystal lattice remains in stable condition but X-ray analysis shows a reduction in the hydroxyapatite density.

Use of portable antennas to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish in small streams: Factors affecting detection probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Horton, Gregg E.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2010-01-01

Portable passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems can be valuable in providing reliable estimates of the abundance of tagged Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in small streams under a wide range of conditions. We developed and employed PIT tag antenna wand techniques in two controlled experiments and an additional case study to examine the factors that influenced our ability to estimate population size. We used Pollock's robust-design capture–mark–recapture model to obtain estimates of the probability of first detection (p), the probability of redetection (c), and abundance (N) in the two controlled experiments. First, we conducted an experiment in which tags were hidden in fixed locations. Although p and c varied among the three observers and among the three passes that each observer conducted, the estimates of N were identical to the true values and did not vary among observers. In the second experiment using free-swimming tagged fish, p and c varied among passes and time of day. Additionally, estimates of N varied between day and night and among age-classes but were within 10% of the true population size. In the case study, we used the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to examine the variation in p, and we compared counts of tagged fish found with the antenna wand with counts collected via electrofishing. In that study, we found that although p varied for age-classes, sample dates, and time of day, antenna and electrofishing estimates of N were similar, indicating that population size can be reliably estimated via PIT tag antenna wands. However, factors such as the observer, time of day, age of fish, and stream discharge can influence the initial and subsequent detection probabilities.

The negated conditional: a litmus test for the suppositional conditional?

PubMed

Handley, Simon J; Evans, Jonathan St B T; Thompson, Valerie A

2006-05-01

Under the suppositional account of conditionals, when people think about a conditional assertion, "if p then q," they engage in a mental simulation in which they imagine p holds and evaluate the probability that q holds under this supposition. One implication of this account is that belief in a conditional equates to conditional probability [P(q/p)]. In this paper, the authors examine a further implication of this analysis with respect to the wide-scope negation of conditional assertions, "it is not the case that if p then q." Under the suppositional account, nothing categorically follows from the negation of a conditional, other than a second conditional, "if p then not-q." In contrast, according to the mental model theory, a negated conditional is consistent only with the determinate state of affairs, p and not-q. In 4 experiments, the authors compare the contrasting predictions that arise from each of these accounts. The findings are consistent with the suppositional theory but are incongruent with the mental model theory of conditionals.

High-sensitivity chemical derivatization NMR analysis for condition monitoring of aged elastomers.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Assink, Roger Alan; Celina, Mathias C.; Skutnik, Julie Michelle

2004-06-01

An aged polybutadiene-based elastomer was reacted with trifluoroacetic anhydride (TFAA) and subsequently analyzed via 19F NMR spectroscopy. Derivatization between the TFAA and hydroxyl functionalities produced during thermo-oxidative aging was achieved, resulting in the formation of trifluoroester groups on the polymer. Primary and secondary alcohols were confirmed to be the main oxidation products of this material, and the total percent oxidation correlated with data obtained from oxidation rate measurements. The chemical derivatization appears to be highly sensitive and can be used to establish the presence and identity of oxidation products in aged polymeric materials. This methodology represents a novel condition monitoringmore » approach for the detection of chemical changes that are otherwise difficult to analyze.« less

Chemiluminescence as a condition monitoring method for thermal aging and lifetime prediction of an HTPB elastomer.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gillen, Kenneth Todd; Minier, Leanna M. G.; Celina, Mathias C.

Chemiluminescence (CL) has been applied as a condition monitoring technique to assess aging related changes in a hydroxyl-terminated-polybutadiene based polyurethane elastomer. Initial thermal aging of this polymer was conducted between 110 and 50 C. Two CL methods were applied to examine the degradative changes that had occurred in these aged samples: isothermal 'wear-out' experiments under oxygen yielding initial CL intensity and 'wear-out' time data, and temperature ramp experiments under inert conditions as a measure of previously accumulated hydroperoxides or other reactive species. The sensitivities of these CL features to prior aging exposure of the polymer were evaluated on the basismore » of qualifying this method as a quick screening technique for quantification of degradation levels. Both the techniques yielded data representing the aging trends in this material via correlation with mechanical property changes. Initial CL rates from the isothermal experiments are the most sensitive and suitable approach for documenting material changes during the early part of thermal aging.« less

Associations between multimorbidity and additional burden for working-age adults with specific forms of musculoskeletal conditions: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Lowe, Dianne B; Taylor, Michael J; Hill, Sophie J

2017-04-04

Multiple health conditions are increasingly a problem for adults with musculoskeletal conditions. However, multimorbidity research has focused primarily on the elderly and those with a limited subset of musculoskeletal disorders. We sought to determine whether associations between multimorbidity and additional burden differ with specific forms of musculoskeletal conditions among working-age adults. Data were sourced from a nationally representative Australian survey. Specific musculoskeletal conditions examined were osteoarthritis; inflammatory arthritis; other forms of arthritis or arthropathies; musculoskeletal conditions not elsewhere specified; gout; back pain; soft tissue disorders; or osteoporosis. Multimorbidity was defined as the additional presence of one or more of the Australian National Health Priority Area conditions. Burden was assessed by self-reported measures of: (i) self-rated health (ii) musculoskeletal-related healthcare and medicines utilisation and, (iii) general healthcare utilisation. Associations between multimorbidity and additional health or healthcare utilisation burden among working-age adults (aged 18 - 64 years of age) with specific musculoskeletal conditions were estimated using logistic regression, adjusting for confounders. Interaction terms were fitted to identify whether there were specific musculoskeletal conditions where multimorbidity was more strongly associated with poorer health or greater healthcare utilisation than in the remaining musculoskeletal group. Among working-age adults, for each of the specified musculoskeletal conditions, multimorbidity was associated with similar, increased likelihood of additional self-rated health burden and certain types of healthcare utilisation. While there were differences in the relationships between multimorbidity and burden for each of the specific musculoskeletal conditions, no one specific musculoskeletal condition appeared to be consistently associated with greater additional

Method, system, and computer-readable medium for determining performance characteristics of an object undergoing one or more arbitrary aging conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gering, Kevin L.

A method, system, and computer-readable medium are described for characterizing performance loss of an object undergoing an arbitrary aging condition. Baseline aging data may be collected from the object for at least one known baseline aging condition over time, determining baseline multiple sigmoid model parameters from the baseline data, and performance loss of the object may be determined over time through multiple sigmoid model parameters associated with the object undergoing the arbitrary aging condition using a differential deviation-from-baseline approach from the baseline multiple sigmoid model parameters. The system may include an object, monitoring hardware configured to sample performance characteristics ofmore » the object, and a processor coupled to the monitoring hardware. The processor is configured to determine performance loss for the arbitrary aging condition from a comparison of the performance characteristics of the object deviating from baseline performance characteristics associated with a baseline aging condition.« less

Recent research on the high-probability instructional sequence: A brief review.

PubMed

Lipschultz, Joshua; Wilder, David A

2017-04-01

The high-probability (high-p) instructional sequence consists of the delivery of a series of high-probability instructions immediately before delivery of a low-probability or target instruction. It is commonly used to increase compliance in a variety of populations. Recent research has described variations of the high-p instructional sequence and examined the conditions under which the sequence is most effective. This manuscript reviews the most recent research on the sequence and identifies directions for future research. Recommendations for practitioners regarding the use of the high-p instructional sequence are also provided. © 2017 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Effects of Paradigm and Inter-Stimulus Interval on Age Differences in Eyeblink Classical Conditioning in Rabbits

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodruff-Pak, Diana S.; Seta, Susan E.; Roker, LaToya A.; Lehr, Melissa A.

2007-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine parameters affecting age differences in eyeblink classical conditioning in a large sample of young and middle-aged rabbits. A total of 122 rabbits of mean ages of 4 or 26 mo were tested at inter-stimulus intervals (ISIs) of 600 or 750 msec in the delay or trace paradigms. Paradigm affected both age groups…

The Negated Conditional: A Litmus Test for the Suppositional Conditional?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Handley, Simon J.; Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.; Thompson, Valerie A.

2006-01-01

Under the suppositional account of conditionals, when people think about a conditional assertion, "if p then q," they engage in a mental simulation in which they imagine p holds and evaluate the probability that q holds under this supposition. One implication of this account is that belief in a conditional equates to conditional probability…

Estimating soil moisture exceedance probability from antecedent rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cronkite-Ratcliff, C.; Kalansky, J.; Stock, J. D.; Collins, B. D.

2016-12-01

The first storms of the rainy season in coastal California, USA, add moisture to soils but rarely trigger landslides. Previous workers proposed that antecedent rainfall, the cumulative seasonal rain from October 1 onwards, had to exceed specific amounts in order to trigger landsliding. Recent monitoring of soil moisture upslope of historic landslides in the San Francisco Bay Area shows that storms can cause positive pressure heads once soil moisture values exceed a threshold of volumetric water content (VWC). We propose that antecedent rainfall could be used to estimate the probability that VWC exceeds this threshold. A major challenge to estimating the probability of exceedance is that rain gauge records are frequently incomplete. We developed a stochastic model to impute (infill) missing hourly precipitation data. This model uses nearest neighbor-based conditional resampling of the gauge record using data from nearby rain gauges. Using co-located VWC measurements, imputed data can be used to estimate the probability that VWC exceeds a specific threshold for a given antecedent rainfall. The stochastic imputation model can also provide an estimate of uncertainty in the exceedance probability curve. Here we demonstrate the method using soil moisture and precipitation data from several sites located throughout Northern California. Results show a significant variability between sites in the sensitivity of VWC exceedance probability to antecedent rainfall.

Knock probability estimation through an in-cylinder temperature model with exogenous noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bares, P.; Selmanaj, D.; Guardiola, C.; Onder, C.

2018-01-01

This paper presents a new knock model which combines a deterministic knock model based on the in-cylinder temperature and an exogenous noise disturbing this temperature. The autoignition of the end-gas is modelled by an Arrhenius-like function and the knock probability is estimated by propagating a virtual error probability distribution. Results show that the random nature of knock can be explained by uncertainties at the in-cylinder temperature estimation. The model only has one parameter for calibration and thus can be easily adapted online. In order to reduce the measurement uncertainties associated with the air mass flow sensor, the trapped mass is derived from the in-cylinder pressure resonance, which improves the knock probability estimation and reduces the number of sensors needed for the model. A four stroke SI engine was used for model validation. By varying the intake temperature, the engine speed, the injected fuel mass, and the spark advance, specific tests were conducted, which furnished data with various knock intensities and probabilities. The new model is able to predict the knock probability within a sufficient range at various operating conditions. The trapped mass obtained by the acoustical model was compared in steady conditions by using a fuel balance and a lambda sensor and differences below 1 % were found.

The utility of Bayesian predictive probabilities for interim monitoring of clinical trials

PubMed Central

Connor, Jason T.; Ayers, Gregory D; Alvarez, JoAnn

2014-01-01

Background Bayesian predictive probabilities can be used for interim monitoring of clinical trials to estimate the probability of observing a statistically significant treatment effect if the trial were to continue to its predefined maximum sample size. Purpose We explore settings in which Bayesian predictive probabilities are advantageous for interim monitoring compared to Bayesian posterior probabilities, p-values, conditional power, or group sequential methods. Results For interim analyses that address prediction hypotheses, such as futility monitoring and efficacy monitoring with lagged outcomes, only predictive probabilities properly account for the amount of data remaining to be observed in a clinical trial and have the flexibility to incorporate additional information via auxiliary variables. Limitations Computational burdens limit the feasibility of predictive probabilities in many clinical trial settings. The specification of prior distributions brings additional challenges for regulatory approval. Conclusions The use of Bayesian predictive probabilities enables the choice of logical interim stopping rules that closely align with the clinical decision making process. PMID:24872363

The Shergottite Age Paradox and the Relative Probabilities of Ejecting Martian Meteorites of Differing Ages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Borg, L. E.; Shih, C.-Y.; Nyquist, L. E.

1998-01-01

The apparent paradox that the majority of impacts yielding Martian meteorites appear to have taken place on only a few percent of the Martian surface can be resolved if all the shergottites were ejected in a single event rather than in multiple events as expected from variations in their cosmic ray exposure and crystallization ages. If the shergottite-ejection event is assigned to one of three craters in the vicinity of Olympus Mons that were previously identified as candidate source craters for the SNC (Shergottites, Nakhlites, Chassigny) meteorites, and the nakhlite event to another candidate crater in the vicinity of Ceraunius Tholus, the implied ages of the surrounding terranes agree well with crater density ages. EN,en for high cratering rates (minimum ages), the likely origin of the shergottites is in the Tharsis region, and the paradox of too many meteorites from too little terrane remains for multiple shergottite-ejection events. However, for high cratering rates it is possible to consider sources for the nakhlltes which are away from the Tharsis region. The meteorite-yielding impacts may have been widely dispersed with sources of the young SNC meteorites in the northern plains, and the source of the ancient orthopyroxenite, ALH84001, in the ancient southern uplands. Oblique-impact craters can be identified with the sources of the nakhlites and the orthopyroxenite,, respectively, in the nominal cratering rate model, and with the shergottites and orthopyroxenite, respectively, in the high cratering rate model. Thus, oblique impacts deserve renewed attention as an ejection mechanism for Martian meteorites.

'Executive' functions and normal aging: selective impairment in conditional exclusion compared to abstraction and inhibition.

PubMed

Silver, Henry; Goodman, Craig; Gur, Ruben C; Gur, Raquel E; Bilker, Warren B

2011-01-01

Some executive functions may be selectively impaired in normal aging over and above the general cognitive decline. We examined the performance of healthy high functioning young (n = 77) and older (n = 57) individuals on three 'executive' tests: conditional exclusion, abstraction, and inhibition of prepotent responses. We compared their relationships to each other and to other cognitive functions including attention, psychomotor speed and working memory. Conditional exclusion was significantly more impaired than abstraction or inhibition in the elderly compared to the younger group and unlike them, showed a nonlinear relationship with age. These findings were independent of other cognitive functions. Analysis of PCET performance characteristics showed that older individuals were particularly impaired in attaining the last of the three achievable categories, were slower, and had fewer error monitoring resources compared to the younger group. Conditional exclusion shows an age-related pattern of impairment distinct from inhibition and abstraction. We propose that in healthy well-functioning individuals, it taps processes integrating task set establishment and shifting in context of accumulating information. It may thus be useful as a specific marker of complex cognitive functions in studies of normal cognitive aging and in early detection of cognitive dysfunction. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

SureTrak Probability of Impact Display

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, John

2012-01-01

The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display software was developed for use during rocket launch operations. The software displays probability of impact information for each ship near the hazardous area during the time immediately preceding the launch of an unguided vehicle. Wallops range safety officers need to be sure that the risk to humans is below a certain threshold during each use of the Wallops Flight Facility Launch Range. Under the variable conditions that can exist at launch time, the decision to launch must be made in a timely manner to ensure a successful mission while not exceeding those risk criteria. Range safety officers need a tool that can give them the needed probability of impact information quickly, and in a format that is clearly understandable. This application is meant to fill that need. The software is a reuse of part of software developed for an earlier project: Ship Surveillance Software System (S4). The S4 project was written in C++ using Microsoft Visual Studio 6. The data structures and dialog templates from it were copied into a new application that calls the implementation of the algorithms from S4 and displays the results as needed. In the S4 software, the list of ships in the area was received from one local radar interface and from operators who entered the ship information manually. The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display application receives ship data from two local radars as well as the SureTrak system, eliminating the need for manual data entry.

On Probability Domains IV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

2017-12-01

Stressing a categorical approach, we continue our study of fuzzified domains of probability, in which classical random events are replaced by measurable fuzzy random events. In operational probability theory (S. Bugajski) classical random variables are replaced by statistical maps (generalized distribution maps induced by random variables) and in fuzzy probability theory (S. Gudder) the central role is played by observables (maps between probability domains). We show that to each of the two generalized probability theories there corresponds a suitable category and the two resulting categories are dually equivalent. Statistical maps and observables become morphisms. A statistical map can send a degenerated (pure) state to a non-degenerated one —a quantum phenomenon and, dually, an observable can map a crisp random event to a genuine fuzzy random event —a fuzzy phenomenon. The dual equivalence means that the operational probability theory and the fuzzy probability theory coincide and the resulting generalized probability theory has two dual aspects: quantum and fuzzy. We close with some notes on products and coproducts in the dual categories.

The World According to de Finetti: On de Finetti's Theory of Probability and Its Application to Quantum Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkovitz, Joseph

Bruno de Finetti is one of the founding fathers of the subjectivist school of probability, where probabilities are interpreted as rational degrees of belief. His work on the relation between the theorems of probability and rationality is among the corner stones of modern subjective probability theory. De Finetti maintained that rationality requires that degrees of belief be coherent, and he argued that the whole of probability theory could be derived from these coherence conditions. De Finetti's interpretation of probability has been highly influential in science. This paper focuses on the application of this interpretation to quantum mechanics. We argue that de Finetti held that the coherence conditions of degrees of belief in events depend on their verifiability. Accordingly, the standard coherence conditions of degrees of belief that are familiar from the literature on subjective probability only apply to degrees of belief in events which could (in principle) be jointly verified; and the coherence conditions of degrees of belief in events that cannot be jointly verified are weaker. While the most obvious explanation of de Finetti's verificationism is the influence of positivism, we argue that it could be motivated by the radical subjectivist and instrumental nature of probability in his interpretation; for as it turns out, in this interpretation it is difficult to make sense of the idea of coherent degrees of belief in, and accordingly probabilities of unverifiable events. We then consider the application of this interpretation to quantum mechanics, concentrating on the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen experiment and Bell's theorem.

Age of Parental Concern, Diagnosis, and Service Initiation among Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zablotsky, Benjamin; Colpe, Lisa J.; Pringle, Beverly A.; Kogan, Michael D.; Rice, Catherine; Blumberg, Stephen J.

2017-01-01

Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) require substantial support to address the core symptoms of ASD and co-occurring behavioral/developmental conditions. This study explores the early diagnostic experiences of school-aged children with ASD using survey data from a large probability-based national sample. Multivariate linear regressions…

Mechanical failure probability of glasses in Earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kinser, Donald L.; Wiedlocher, David E.

1992-01-01

Results of five years of earth-orbital exposure on mechanical properties of glasses indicate that radiation effects on mechanical properties of glasses, for the glasses examined, are less than the probable error of measurement. During the 5 year exposure, seven micrometeorite or space debris impacts occurred on the samples examined. These impacts were located in locations which were not subjected to effective mechanical testing, hence limited information on their influence upon mechanical strength was obtained. Combination of these results with micrometeorite and space debris impact frequency obtained by other experiments permits estimates of the failure probability of glasses exposed to mechanical loading under earth-orbit conditions. This probabilistic failure prediction is described and illustrated with examples.

Multiple Comorbid Conditions among Middle-Aged and Elderly Hemophilia Patients: Prevalence Estimates and Implications for Future Care

PubMed Central

Khleif, Aroub A.; Rodriguez, Nidra; Brown, Deborah; Escobar, Miguel A.

2011-01-01

Introduction. Advances in hemophilia care and treatment have led to increases in the life expectancy among hemophiliacs. As a result, persons with hemophilia are reaching an older age and experiencing various age-related health conditions never seen before in this population. Aim. To determine the prevalence of comorbidities among middle-aged and elderly hemophilia A and hemophilia B patients. Methods. Retrospective chart review among all hemophilia patients, who attended the Gulf States Hemophilia and Thrombophilia Center. Results. All patients had at least one comorbid condition other than hemophilia, and the majority had between 3 and 6 comorbidities. The most common conditions identified were chronic hepatitis C, hypertension, HIV, chronic arthropathy, and overweight/obesity. Conclusions. Since persons with comorbidities are more likely to have poorer health outcomes and require greater care in managing their health needs, caring for aging hemophiliacs is likely to pose various social and economic challenges for both patients and providers. PMID:21912745

Gates to retirement and gender differences: Macroeconomic conditions, job satisfaction, and age.

PubMed

Axelrad, Hila; Mcnamara, Tay K

2017-08-04

The different pathways out of the labor force have been the focus of many recent studies, yet not enough scholarly attention has been paid to the effect of country-level, individual, and job characteristics and their potentially different influence across genders. The current article examines the relationships between retirement decisions and macroeconomic conditions, personal characteristics, and job satisfaction, while focusing on gender differences. Data came from 16,337 respondents in 13 European countries that participated in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We find that the relative importance of macroeconomic conditions and job satisfaction differs by gender.

[Age-related features of neuromuscular function in rats with hyperthyroidism].

PubMed

Nerush, P O; Makiĭ, Ie A; Rodyns'kyĭ, O H

2001-01-01

Studied features of functioning of nervous-muscular system at white rats of two age groups: preadolescent (5 weeks) and puberal (24 weeks), in conditions experimental hyperthyroidism (HT). It is established, that in conditions HT at action of the raised concentration thyroxine characteristics of excitation gastrocnemius muscles essentially changed at irritation of a sciatic nerve in groups preadolescent and puberal animals. In all age groups in conditions HT increase of a threshold of excitation gastrocnemius muscles is marked at indirect stimulation and decrease at direct stimulation; also in all age groups in conditions HT reduction of time chronaxy muscles is fixed, both at direct, and at indirect irritation. At preadolescent animals, as against puberal in conditions HT at action of the raised concentration thyroxine on nervous-muscular system it is not revealed authentic change of the latent period and amplitude of potential of action (PA). The conclusion is made, that in conditions HT change of a threshold of excitation and chronaxy gastrocnemius muscles both at direct, and at indirect irritation do not carry age specificity and have an identical orientation, both at preadolescent, and at puberal rats. At preadolescent animals in conditions HT, as against puberal the parameter of amplitude and latent period PA authentically did not change, that can testify to smaller sensitivity of the caused answers gastrocnemius muscles to the raised concentration thyroxine, probably, by virtue of immaturity peripheral neuromotor the device.

Target intersection probabilities for parallel-line and continuous-grid types of search

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCammon, R.B.

1977-01-01

The expressions for calculating the probability of intersection of hidden targets of different sizes and shapes for parallel-line and continuous-grid types of search can be formulated by vsing the concept of conditional probability. When the prior probability of the orientation of a widden target is represented by a uniform distribution, the calculated posterior probabilities are identical with the results obtained by the classic methods of probability. For hidden targets of different sizes and shapes, the following generalizations about the probability of intersection can be made: (1) to a first approximation, the probability of intersection of a hidden target is proportional to the ratio of the greatest dimension of the target (viewed in plane projection) to the minimum line spacing of the search pattern; (2) the shape of the hidden target does not greatly affect the probability of the intersection when the largest dimension of the target is small relative to the minimum spacing of the search pattern, (3) the probability of intersecting a target twice for a particular type of search can be used as a lower bound if there is an element of uncertainty of detection for a particular type of tool; (4) the geometry of the search pattern becomes more critical when the largest dimension of the target equals or exceeds the minimum spacing of the search pattern; (5) for elongate targets, the probability of intersection is greater for parallel-line search than for an equivalent continuous square-grid search when the largest dimension of the target is less than the minimum spacing of the search pattern, whereas the opposite is true when the largest dimension exceeds the minimum spacing; (6) the probability of intersection for nonorthogonal continuous-grid search patterns is not greatly different from the probability of intersection for the equivalent orthogonal continuous-grid pattern when the orientation of the target is unknown. The probability of intersection for an

Bayesian pretest probability estimation for primary malignant bone tumors based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program (SEER) database.

PubMed

Benndorf, Matthias; Neubauer, Jakob; Langer, Mathias; Kotter, Elmar

2017-03-01

In the diagnostic process of primary bone tumors, patient age, tumor localization and to a lesser extent sex affect the differential diagnosis. We therefore aim to develop a pretest probability calculator for primary malignant bone tumors based on population data taking these variables into account. We access the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute, 2015 release) database and analyze data of all primary malignant bone tumors diagnosed between 1973 and 2012. We record age at diagnosis, tumor localization according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-O-3) and sex. We take relative probability of the single tumor entity as a surrogate parameter for unadjusted pretest probability. We build a probabilistic (naïve Bayes) classifier to calculate pretest probabilities adjusted for age, tumor localization and sex. We analyze data from 12,931 patients (647 chondroblastic osteosarcomas, 3659 chondrosarcomas, 1080 chordomas, 185 dedifferentiated chondrosarcomas, 2006 Ewing's sarcomas, 281 fibroblastic osteosarcomas, 129 fibrosarcomas, 291 fibrous malignant histiocytomas, 289 malignant giant cell tumors, 238 myxoid chondrosarcomas, 3730 osteosarcomas, 252 parosteal osteosarcomas, 144 telangiectatic osteosarcomas). We make our probability calculator accessible at http://ebm-radiology.com/bayesbone/index.html . We provide exhaustive tables for age and localization data. Results from tenfold cross-validation show that in 79.8 % of cases the pretest probability is correctly raised. Our approach employs population data to calculate relative pretest probabilities for primary malignant bone tumors. The calculator is not diagnostic in nature. However, resulting probabilities might serve as an initial evaluation of probabilities of tumors on the differential diagnosis list.

Dopaminergic Drug Effects on Probability Weighting during Risky Decision Making

PubMed Central

Timmer, Monique H. M.; ter Huurne, Niels P.

2018-01-01

Abstract Dopamine has been associated with risky decision-making, as well as with pathological gambling, a behavioral addiction characterized by excessive risk-taking behavior. However, the specific mechanisms through which dopamine might act to foster risk-taking and pathological gambling remain elusive. Here we test the hypothesis that this might be achieved, in part, via modulation of subjective probability weighting during decision making. Human healthy controls (n = 21) and pathological gamblers (n = 16) played a decision-making task involving choices between sure monetary options and risky gambles both in the gain and loss domains. Each participant played the task twice, either under placebo or the dopamine D2/D3 receptor antagonist sulpiride, in a double-blind counterbalanced design. A prospect theory modelling approach was used to estimate subjective probability weighting and sensitivity to monetary outcomes. Consistent with prospect theory, we found that participants presented a distortion in the subjective weighting of probabilities, i.e., they overweighted low probabilities and underweighted moderate to high probabilities, both in the gain and loss domains. Compared with placebo, sulpiride attenuated this distortion in the gain domain. Across drugs, the groups did not differ in their probability weighting, although gamblers consistently underweighted losing probabilities in the placebo condition. Overall, our results reveal that dopamine D2/D3 receptor antagonism modulates the subjective weighting of probabilities in the gain domain, in the direction of more objective, economically rational decision making. PMID:29632870

Dopaminergic Drug Effects on Probability Weighting during Risky Decision Making.

PubMed

Ojala, Karita E; Janssen, Lieneke K; Hashemi, Mahur M; Timmer, Monique H M; Geurts, Dirk E M; Ter Huurne, Niels P; Cools, Roshan; Sescousse, Guillaume

2018-01-01

Dopamine has been associated with risky decision-making, as well as with pathological gambling, a behavioral addiction characterized by excessive risk-taking behavior. However, the specific mechanisms through which dopamine might act to foster risk-taking and pathological gambling remain elusive. Here we test the hypothesis that this might be achieved, in part, via modulation of subjective probability weighting during decision making. Human healthy controls ( n = 21) and pathological gamblers ( n = 16) played a decision-making task involving choices between sure monetary options and risky gambles both in the gain and loss domains. Each participant played the task twice, either under placebo or the dopamine D 2 /D 3 receptor antagonist sulpiride, in a double-blind counterbalanced design. A prospect theory modelling approach was used to estimate subjective probability weighting and sensitivity to monetary outcomes. Consistent with prospect theory, we found that participants presented a distortion in the subjective weighting of probabilities, i.e., they overweighted low probabilities and underweighted moderate to high probabilities, both in the gain and loss domains. Compared with placebo, sulpiride attenuated this distortion in the gain domain. Across drugs, the groups did not differ in their probability weighting, although gamblers consistently underweighted losing probabilities in the placebo condition. Overall, our results reveal that dopamine D 2 /D 3 receptor antagonism modulates the subjective weighting of probabilities in the gain domain, in the direction of more objective, economically rational decision making.

Social Support and Coping Styles in Predicting Suicide Probability among Turkish Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cenkseven-Önder, Fulya

2018-01-01

This study aims to investigate whether the perceived social support and coping styles are predictors of suicide probability by gender. The study was conducted with 445 high schools students, 227 girls, and 218 boys. The participants were aged between 14 and 18, and their average age was 15.90. Data were collected through the "Multidimensional…

Lost productive life years caused by chronic conditions in Australians aged 45-64 years, 2010-2030.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah J; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Cunich, Michelle; Tanton, Robert; Kelly, Simon; Passey, Megan E; Veerman, Lennert J

2015-09-21

To estimate (1) productive life years (PLYs) lost because of chronic conditions in Australians aged 45-64 years from 2010 to 2030, and (2) the impact of this loss on gross domestic product (GDP) over the same period. A microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to project lost PLYs caused by chronic conditions from 2010 to 2030. The base population consisted of respondents aged 45-64 years to the Australian Bureau of Statistics Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003 and 2009. The national impact of lost PLYs was assessed with Treasury's GDP equation. Lost PLYs due to chronic disease at 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (ie, whole life years lost because of chronic disease); the national impact of lost PLYs at the same time points (GDP loss caused by PLYs); the effects of population growth, labour force trends and chronic disease trends on lost PLYs and GDP at each time point. Using Health&WealthMOD2030, we estimated a loss of 347,000 PLYs in 2010; this was projected to increase to 459,000 in 2030 (32.28% increase over 20 years). The leading chronic conditions associated with premature exits from the labour force were back problems, arthritis and mental and behavioural problems. The percentage increase in the number of PLYs lost by those aged 45-64 years was greater than that of population growth for this age group (32.28% v 27.80%). The strongest driver of the increase in lost PLYs was population growth (accounting for 89.18% of the increase), followed by chronic condition trends (8.28%). Our study estimates an increase of 112 000 lost PLYs caused by chronic illness in older workers in Australia between 2010 and 2030, with the most rapid growth projected to occur in men aged 55-59 years and in women aged 60-64 years. The national impact of this lost labour force participation on GDP was estimated to be $37.79 billion in 2010, increasing to $63.73 billion in 2030.

[Prolonged mechanical ventilation probability model].

PubMed

Añón, J M; Gómez-Tello, V; González-Higueras, E; Oñoro, J J; Córcoles, V; Quintana, M; López-Martínez, J; Marina, L; Choperena, G; García-Fernández, A M; Martín-Delgado, C; Gordo, F; Díaz-Alersi, R; Montejo, J C; Lorenzo, A García de; Pérez-Arriaga, M; Madero, R

2012-10-01

To design a probability model for prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) using variables obtained during the first 24 hours of the start of MV. An observational, prospective, multicenter cohort study. Thirteen Spanish medical-surgical intensive care units. Adult patients requiring mechanical ventilation for more than 24 hours. None. APACHE II, SOFA, demographic data, clinical data, reason for mechanical ventilation, comorbidity, and functional condition. A multivariate risk model was constructed. The model contemplated a dependent variable with three possible conditions: 1. Early mortality; 2. Early extubation; and 3. PMV. Of the 1661 included patients, 67.9% (n=1127) were men. Age: 62.1±16.2 years. APACHE II: 20.3±7.5. Total SOFA: 8.4±3.5. The APACHE II and SOFA scores were higher in patients ventilated for 7 or more days (p=0.04 and p=0.0001, respectively). Noninvasive ventilation failure was related to PMV (p=0.005). A multivariate model for the three above exposed outcomes was generated. The overall accuracy of the model in the training and validation sample was 0.763 (95%IC: 0.729-0.804) and 0.751 (95%IC: 0.672-0.816), respectively. The likelihood ratios (LRs) for early extubation, involving a cutoff point of 0.65, in the training sample were LR (+): 2.37 (95%CI: 1.77-3.19) and LR (-): 0.47 (95%CI: 0.41-0.55). The LRs for the early mortality model, for a cutoff point of 0.73, in the training sample, were LR (+): 2.64 (95%CI: 2.01-3.4) and LR (-): 0.39 (95%CI: 0.30-0.51). The proposed model could be a helpful tool in decision making. However, because of its moderate accuracy, it should be considered as a first approach, and the results should be corroborated by further studies involving larger samples and the use of standardized criteria. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier España, S.L. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of agreement between pectoral spines and otoliths for estimating ages of catfishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olive, J.A.; Schramm, Harold; Gerard, Patrick D.; Irwin, E.

2011-01-01

Otoliths have been shown to provide more accurate ages than pectoral spine sections for several catfish populations; but sampling otoliths requires euthanizing the specimen, whereas spines can be sampled non-lethally. To evaluate whether, and under what conditions, spines provide the same or similar age estimates as otoliths, we examined data sets of individual fish aged from pectoral spines and otoliths for six blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus populations (n=420), 14 channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus populations (n=997), and 10 flathead catfish Pylodictus olivaris populations (n=947) from lotic and lentic waters throughout the central and eastern U.S. Logistic regression determined that agreement between ages estimated from otoliths and spines was consistently related to age, but inconsistently related to growth rate. When modeled at mean growth rate, we found at least 80% probability of no difference in spine- and otolith-assigned ages up to ages 4 and 5 for blue and channel catfish, respectively. For flathead catfish, an 80% probability of agreement between spine- and otolith-assigned ages did not occur at any age due to high incidence of differences in assigned ages even for age-1 fish. Logistic regression models predicted at least 80% probability that spine and otolith ages differed by ≤1 year up to ages 13, 16, and 9 for blue, channel, and flathead catfish, respectively. Age-bias assessment found mean spine-assigned age differed by less than 1 year from otolith-assigned age up to ages 19, 9, and 17 for blue catfish, channel catfish, and flathead catfish, respectively. These results can be used to help guide decisions about which structure is most appropriate for estimating catfish ages for particular populations and management objectives.

Social and economic conditions in childhood and the progression of functional health problems from midlife into old age

PubMed Central

Agahi, Neda; Shaw, Benjamin A; Fors, Stefan

2014-01-01

Background Childhood living conditions have been found to predict health and mortality in midlife and in old age. This study examines the associations between social and economic childhood conditions and the onset and progression of functional health problems from midlife into old age, and the extent to which potential associations are mediated by educational attainment and smoking. Methods Data from the Level of Living Survey and the Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old were merged to create a longitudinal data set with five repeated measures from 1968 to 2004 (n=1765, aged 30–50 years and free from functional health problems at baseline). Multilevel regression models were used to analyse retrospective reports of social and economic conditions in childhood (eg, conflicts or economic problems in the family) in relation to the progression of functional health problems over the 36-year period. Results Results showed that social and economic disadvantages in childhood were associated with an earlier onset and a faster progression of functional health problems from midlife into old age. Subsequent models showed that differences in educational attainment, but not smoking, explained much of the association between childhood disadvantages and trajectories of functional health problems. Conclusions According to these results, adverse social and economic conditions in childhood affect the development of functional health problems from midlife into old age indirectly through less favourable life careers, including lower education. Creating equal opportunities for educational attainment may help reduce the long-term effects of disadvantaged childhood conditions and postpone functional health problems. PMID:24759781

Setting the light conditions for measuring root transparency for age-at-death estimation methods.

PubMed

Adserias-Garriga, Joe; Nogué-Navarro, Laia; Zapico, Sara C; Ubelaker, Douglas H

2018-03-01

Age-at-death estimation is one of the main goals in forensic identification, being an essential parameter to determine the biological profile, narrowing the possibility of identification in cases involving missing persons and unidentified bodies. The study of dental tissues has been long considered as a proper tool for age estimation with several age estimation methods based on them. Dental age estimation methods can be divided into three categories: tooth formation and development, post-formation changes, and histological changes. While tooth formation and growth changes are important for fetal and infant consideration, when the end of dental and skeletal growth is achieved, post-formation or biochemical changes can be applied. Lamendin et al. in J Forensic Sci 37:1373-1379, (1992) developed an adult age estimation method based on root transparency and periodontal recession. The regression formula demonstrated its accuracy of use for 40 to 70-year-old individuals. Later on, Prince and Ubelaker in J Forensic Sci 47(1):107-116, (2002) evaluated the effects of ancestry and sex and incorporated root height into the equation, developing four new regression formulas for males and females of African and European ancestry. Even though root transparency is a key element in the method, the conditions for measuring this element have not been established. The aim of the present study is to set the light conditions measured in lumens that offer greater accuracy when applying the Lamendin et al. method modified by Prince and Ubelaker. The results must be also taken into account in the application of other age estimation methodologies using root transparency to estimate age-at-death.

Launch Collision Probability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bollenbacher, Gary; Guptill, James D.

1999-01-01

This report analyzes the probability of a launch vehicle colliding with one of the nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the Earth, given that an object on a near-collision course with the launch vehicle has been identified. Knowledge of the probability of collision throughout the launch window can be used to avoid launching at times when the probability of collision is unacceptably high. The analysis in this report assumes that the positions of the orbiting objects and the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time and therefore that any tracked object which comes close to the launch vehicle can be identified. The analysis further assumes that the position uncertainty of the launch vehicle and the approaching space object can be described with position covariance matrices. With these and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution is developed using two approaches. The solution shows that the probability of collision is a function of position uncertainties, the size of the two potentially colliding objects, and the nominal separation distance at the point of closest approach. ne impact of the simplifying assumptions on the accuracy of the final result is assessed and the application of the results to the Cassini mission, launched in October 1997, is described. Other factors that affect the probability of collision are also discussed. Finally, the report offers alternative approaches that can be used to evaluate the probability of collision.

Guide star probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soneira, R. M.; Bahcall, J. N.

1981-01-01

Probabilities are calculated for acquiring suitable guide stars (GS) with the fine guidance system (FGS) of the space telescope. A number of the considerations and techniques described are also relevant for other space astronomy missions. The constraints of the FGS are reviewed. The available data on bright star densities are summarized and a previous error in the literature is corrected. Separate analytic and Monte Carlo calculations of the probabilities are described. A simulation of space telescope pointing is carried out using the Weistrop north galactic pole catalog of bright stars. Sufficient information is presented so that the probabilities of acquisition can be estimated as a function of position in the sky. The probability of acquiring suitable guide stars is greatly increased if the FGS can allow an appreciable difference between the (bright) primary GS limiting magnitude and the (fainter) secondary GS limiting magnitude.

Demand-specific work ability, poor health and working conditions in middle-aged full-time employees.

PubMed

Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Thielen, Karsten; Nygaard, Else; Thorsen, Sannie Vester; Diderichsen, Finn

2014-07-01

We investigated the prevalence of reduced demand-specific work ability, its association with age, gender, education, poor health, and working conditions, and the interaction between poor health and working conditions regarding reduced demand-specific work ability. We used cross-sectional questionnaire data from 3381 full-time employees responding to questions about vocational education, job demands and social support (working conditions), musculoskeletal pain (MSP) and major depression (MD) (poor health) and seven questions about difficulty managing different job demands (reduced demand-specific work ability). Reduced demand-specific work ability varied from 9% to 19% among the 46-year old and from 11% to 21% among the 56-year old. Age was associated with two, gender with four, and education with all measures of reduced demand-specific work ability. MSP was associated with four and MD was associated with six measures of reduced demand-specific work ability. We found no interaction between working conditions and poor health regarding reduced demand-specific work ability. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Systematic mapping review about costs and economic evaluations of skin conditions and diseases in the aged.

PubMed

Lichterfeld-Kottner, Andrea; Hahnel, Elisabeth; Blume-Peytavi, Ulrike; Kottner, Jan

2017-02-01

Skin conditions and dermatological diseases associated with advanced age (e.g. fungal infection, dry skin and itch) receive increasingly attention in clinical practice and research. Cost and economic evaluations are important sources to inform priority setting and ressource allocation decisions in healthcare. The economics of skin conditions in aged populations has not been systematically reviewed so far. The aim of this mapping review was to summarize the economic evidence of selected skin conditions in the aged (65 + years). A mapping literature review and evidence summary was conducted. Searches were conducted in data bases Medline and Embase via OVID. Cinahl was searched using EBSCO. References lists of potential eligible studies, reviews, guidelines or other sources were screened for additional literature. For evaluation of methodological quality of full economic analyses the Consensus on Health Economic Criteria (CHEC) checklist was used. Database searches resulted in 1388 records. A total of 270 articles were read in full-text. Thirty-five publications were finally included in the data analysis reporting 38 economic analyses. Ten cost of illness analyses and 26 cost-effectiveness analyses reporting about pressure ulcers, skin tears, pressure ulcers, incontinence associated dermatitis and intertrigo/contact dermatitis/candidiasis treatment and prevention and onychomycosis testing were identified. Limited evidence indicated that low air loss beds were more cost effective than standard beds for prevention of pressure ulcers. Standardized skin care regimens seem to lower the incidence of pressure ulcers, skin tears and IAD but a cost saving effect was not always observed. Findings of this mapping review indicate that there is a paucity of high quality evidence regarding the economic impact of age-associated skin conditions and diseases. Substantial heterogeneity in terms of study design, evaluation perspective, time period, and way of cost estimation was

The association between chronic conditions and non-agricultural work productivity loss among the middle-aged Chinese population.

PubMed

Zhang, Wei; Sun, Huiying; Li, Xin

2018-05-03

To measure the association between different chronic conditions and non-agricultural work productivity loss among the middle-aged Chinese population. We used 2011, 2013 and 2015 data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. The study focused on middle-aged respondents who had the potential to work in the non-agricultural sector. Work productivity loss was measured by non-agricultural work participation and number of absent workdays among those conducting non-agricultural work. Seven different chronic conditions were considered. Heart diseases had the strongest association with lower work participation for men and women. Stomach/digestive disease and arthritis/rheumatism were conditions with the largest incremental absent workdays for men and women, respectively. The associations with non-agricultural work productivity loss varied by chronic conditions, outcomes, and sex. The findings will help motivate chronic condition prevention/management programs and set priorities.

Fatigue and Creep Crack Propagation behaviour of Alloy 617 in the Annealed and Aged Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Julian K. Benz; Richard N. Wright

2013-10-01

The crack propagation behaviour of Alloy 617 was studied under various conditions. Elevated temperature fatigue and creep-fatigue crack growth experiments were conducted at 650 and 800 degrees C under constant stress intensity (triangle K) conditions and triangular or trapezoidal waveforms at various frequencies on as-received, aged, and carburized material. Environmental conditions included both laboratory air and characteristic VHTR impure helium. As-received Alloy 617 displayed an increase in the crack growth rate (da/dN) as the frequency was decreased in air which indicated a time-dependent contribution component in fatigue crack propagation. Material aged at 650°C did not display any influence on themore » fatigue crack growth rates nor the increasing trend of crack growth rate with decreasing frequency even though significant microstructural evolution, including y’ (Ni3Al) after short times, occurred during aging. In contrast, carburized Alloy 617 showed an increase in crack growth rates at all frequencies tested compared to the material in the standard annealed condition. Crack growth studies under quasi-constant K (i.e. creep) conditions were also completed at 650 degrees C and a stress intensity of K = 40 MPa9 (square root)m. The results indicate that crack growth is primarily intergranular and increased creep crack growth rates exist in the impure helium environment when compared to the results in laboratory air. Furthermore, the propagation rates (da/dt) continually increased for the duration of the creep crack growth either due to material aging or evolution of a crack tip creep zone. Finally, fatigue crack propagation tests at 800 degrees C on annealed Alloy 617 indicated that crack propagation rates were higher in air than impure helium at the largest frequencies and lowest stress intensities. The rates in helium, however, eventually surpass the rates in air as the frequency is reduced and the stress intensity is decreased which was not observed

Robotic radical prostatectomy for elderly patients: probability of achieving continence and potency 1 year after surgery.

PubMed

Shikanov, Sergey; Desai, Vikas; Razmaria, Aria; Zagaja, Gregory P; Shalhav, Arieh L

2010-05-01

We assessed the probability of achieving continence and potency after robotic radical prostatectomy in elderly patients. The cohort included 1,436 robotic radical prostatectomy cases performed at our institution between 2003 and 2008. Continence (pad-free) and potency (erection sufficient for intercourse) at baseline and 1 year after surgery were evaluated by the UCLA-PCI questionnaire. Point estimates of the predicted probabilities of continence and potency for age 65, 70 and 75 years were calculated from multivariate logistic regression models adjusting for age, nerve sparing status, baseline International Prostate Symptom Score and baseline Sexual Health Inventory for Men score. Patients who were impotent before surgery or those who received hormones or radiation within 1 year after surgery were censored. Mean patient age was 60 years (range 38 to 85) with 25% older than 65 years and 77 (5%) 70 years old or older. Age (OR 0.97, p = 0.002), baseline I-PSS (OR 0.98, p = 0.02) and Sexual Health Inventory for Men scores (OR 1.02, p = 0.005) were independently associated with being pad-free. Age (OR 0.92, p <0.0001), baseline Sexual Health Inventory for Men score (OR 1.1, p <0.0001) and bilateral nerve sparing (OR 2.92, p <0.0001) were independently associated with achieving potency. Predicted probabilities (95% CI) of postoperative 1-year continence at age 65, 70 and 75 years were 0.66 (0.63, 0.69), 0.63 (0.57, 0.68) and 0.59 (0.52, 0.66), respectively. The corresponding probabilities of postoperative 1-year potency after bilateral nerve sparing were 0.66 (0.62, 0.71), 0.56 (0.49, 0.64) and 0.46 (0.36, 0.56). In our experience there is an acceptable probability of achieving continence and potency after robotic radical prostatectomy in selected elderly patients. 2010 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probability of satellite collision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccarter, J. W.

1972-01-01

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

A brief introduction to probability.

PubMed

Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

2018-02-01

The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

An attempt to model the probability of growth and aflatoxin B1 production of Aspergillus flavus under non-isothermal conditions in pistachio nuts.

PubMed

Aldars-García, Laila; Ramos, Antonio J; Sanchis, Vicente; Marín, Sonia

2015-10-01

Human exposure to aflatoxins in foods is of great concern. The aim of this work was to use predictive mycology as a strategy to mitigate the aflatoxin burden in pistachio nuts postharvest. The probability of growth and aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) production of aflatoxigenic Aspergillus flavus, isolated from pistachio nuts, under static and non-isothermal conditions was studied. Four theoretical temperature scenarios, including temperature levels observed in pistachio nuts during shipping and storage, were used. Two types of inoculum were included: a cocktail of 25 A. flavus isolates and a single isolate inoculum. Initial water activity was adjusted to 0.87. Logistic models, with temperature and time as explanatory variables, were fitted to the probability of growth and AFB1 production under a constant temperature. Subsequently, they were used to predict probabilities under non-isothermal scenarios, with levels of concordance from 90 to 100% in most of the cases. Furthermore, the presence of AFB1 in pistachio nuts could be correctly predicted in 70-81 % of the cases from a growth model developed in pistachio nuts, and in 67-81% of the cases from an AFB1 model developed in pistachio agar. The information obtained in the present work could be used by producers and processors to predict the time for AFB1 production by A. flavus on pistachio nuts during transport and storage. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optical aging observation in suspended core tellurite microstructured fibers under atmospheric conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strutynski, C.; Mouawad, O.; Picot-Clémente, J.; Froidevaux, P.; Désévédavy, F.; Gadret, G.; Jules, J.-C.; Kibler, B.; Smektala, F.

2017-11-01

Tellurite glasses are good candidates for the development of broadband supercontinuum (SC) laser sources in the 1-5 μm range. At the moment, beside very few exceptions, SC generation in TeO2-based microstructured optical fibers (MOFs) is limited to 3 μm in the mid-infrared (MIR). We present here an observation of an optical aging occurring in six-hole suspended-core tellurite MOFs. When exposed to atmospheric conditions, such fibers show an alteration of their transmission between 3 and 4 μm. This aging phenomenon leads to the growth of strong additional losses in this wavelengths range over time. Impact of the transmission degradation on spectral broadening is studied through numerical simulations of SC generation.

Experimental Probability in Elementary School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrew, Lane

2009-01-01

Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

Higher-dimensional attractors with absolutely continuous invariant probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocker, Carlos; Bortolotti, Ricardo

2018-05-01

Consider a dynamical system given by , where E is a linear expanding map of , C is a linear contracting map of and f is in . We provide sufficient conditions for E that imply the existence of an open set of pairs for which the corresponding dynamic T admits a unique absolutely continuous invariant probability. A geometrical characteristic of transversality between self-intersections of images of is present in the dynamic of the maps in . In addition, we give a condition between E and C under which it is possible to perturb f to obtain a pair in .

Furfuryl ethyl ether: important aging flavor and a new marker for the storage conditions of beer.

PubMed

Vanderhaegen, Bart; Neven, Hedwig; Daenen, Luk; Verstrepen, Kevin J; Verachtert, Hubert; Derdelinckx, Guy

2004-03-24

Recently, it was reported that furfuryl ethyl ether is an important flavor compound indicative of beer storage and aging conditions. A study of the reaction mechanism indicates that furfuryl ethyl ether is most likely formed by protonation of furfuryl alcohol or furfuryl acetate followed by S(N)2-substitution of the leaving group by the nucleophilic ethanol. For the reaction in beer, a pseudo-first-order reaction kinetics was derived. A close correlation was found between the values predicted by the kinetic model and the actual furfuryl ethyl ether concentration evolution during storage of beer. Furthermore, 10 commercial beers of different types, aged during 4 years in natural conditions, were analyzed, and it was found that the furfuryl ethyl ether flavor threshold was largely exceeded in each type of beer. In these natural aging conditions, lower pH, darker color, and higher alcohol content were factors that enhanced furfuryl ethyl ether formation. On the other hand, sulfite clearly reduced furfuryl ethyl ether formation. All results show that the furfuryl ethyl ether concentration is an excellent time-temperature integrator for beer storage.

How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne

2016-01-01

In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected. PMID:27129737

Conditional Probabilities of Large Earthquake Sequences in California from the Physics-based Rupture Simulator RSQSim

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilchrist, J. J.; Jordan, T. H.; Shaw, B. E.; Milner, K. R.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Dieterich, J. H.

2017-12-01

Within the SCEC Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM), we are developing physics-based forecasting models for earthquake ruptures in California. We employ the 3D boundary element code RSQSim (Rate-State Earthquake Simulator of Dieterich & Richards-Dinger, 2010) to generate synthetic catalogs with tens of millions of events that span up to a million years each. This code models rupture nucleation by rate- and state-dependent friction and Coulomb stress transfer in complex, fully interacting fault systems. The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault and deformation models are used to specify the fault geometry and long-term slip rates. We have employed the Blue Waters supercomputer to generate long catalogs of simulated California seismicity from which we calculate the forecasting statistics for large events. We have performed probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with RSQSim catalogs that were calibrated with system-wide parameters and found a remarkably good agreement with UCERF3 (Milner et al., this meeting). We build on this analysis, comparing the conditional probabilities of sequences of large events from RSQSim and UCERF3. In making these comparisons, we consider the epistemic uncertainties associated with the RSQSim parameters (e.g., rate- and state-frictional parameters), as well as the effects of model-tuning (e.g., adjusting the RSQSim parameters to match UCERF3 recurrence rates). The comparisons illustrate how physics-based rupture simulators might assist forecasters in understanding the short-term hazards of large aftershocks and multi-event sequences associated with complex, multi-fault ruptures.

Age-related changes in decision making: comparing informed and noninformed situations.

PubMed

Van Duijvenvoorde, Anna C K; Jansen, Brenda R J; Bredman, Joren C; Huizenga, Hilde M

2012-01-01

Advantageous decision making progressively develops into early adulthood, most specifically in complex and motivationally salient decision situations in which direct feedback on gains and losses is provided (Figner & Weber, 2011). However, the factors that underlie this developmental improvement in decision making are still not well understood. The current study therefore investigates 2 potential factors, long-term memory and working memory, by assigning a large developmental sample (7-29 years of age) to a condition with either high or low demands on long-term and working memory. The first condition featured an age-adapted version of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT; Bechara, Damasio, Damasio, & Anderson, 1994; i.e., a noninformed situation), whereas the second condition provided an external store where explicit information on gains, losses, and probabilities per choice option was presented (i.e., an informed situation). Consistent with previous developmental IGT studies, children up to age 12 did not learn to prefer advantageous options in the noninformed condition. In contrast, all age groups learned to prefer the advantageous options in the informed conditions, although a slight developmental increase in advantageous decision making remained. These results indicate that lowering dependence on long-term and working memory improves children's advantageous decision making. The results additionally suggest that other factors, like inhibitory control processes, may play an additional role in the development of advantageous decision making.

Unbiased multi-fidelity estimate of failure probability of a free plane jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, Alexandre; Kramer, Boris; Willcox, Karen; Peherstorfer, Benjamin

2017-11-01

Estimating failure probability related to fluid flows is a challenge because it requires a large number of evaluations of expensive models. We address this challenge by leveraging multiple low fidelity models of the flow dynamics to create an optimal unbiased estimator. In particular, we investigate the effects of uncertain inlet conditions in the width of a free plane jet. We classify a condition as failure when the corresponding jet width is below a small threshold, such that failure is a rare event (failure probability is smaller than 0.001). We estimate failure probability by combining the frameworks of multi-fidelity importance sampling and optimal fusion of estimators. Multi-fidelity importance sampling uses a low fidelity model to explore the parameter space and create a biasing distribution. An unbiased estimate is then computed with a relatively small number of evaluations of the high fidelity model. In the presence of multiple low fidelity models, this framework offers multiple competing estimators. Optimal fusion combines all competing estimators into a single estimator with minimal variance. We show that this combined framework can significantly reduce the cost of estimating failure probabilities, and thus can have a large impact in fluid flow applications. This work was funded by DARPA.

Living Conditions, Low Socioeconomic Position, and Mortality in the Ibadan Study of Aging.

PubMed

Ojagbemi, Akin; Bello, Toyin; Luo, Zhehui; Gureje, Oye

2017-07-01

Very little is known about socioeconomic differentials in mortality among persons surviving to old age in sub-Saharan Africa. We report on the impact of low socioeconomic position (SEP) on mortality over a 5-year observation period among community-dwelling older adults living in southwestern Nigeria. Data are from a household multistage probability sample of 2,149 Yoruba Nigerians aged 65 years or older. We collected information on indices related to health and well-being at baseline (2003/2004). Socioeconomic positions were estimated using asset-based measures relevant to low income settings. Information on mortality was obtained by research supervisors in multiple waves (2007, 2008, and 2009). Associations between baseline covariates and mortality were explored using discrete time survival models and life tables. We recorded 357 deaths over 5 years, or an annual mortality rate of 4.7% (95% CI = 4.2-5.2). Being 80 years or older (HR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.1-2.5) and belonging to the lowest SEP (HR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.1-2.1) were the main predictors of mortality. The significant effect of lowest SEP on mortality risk over the study period was independent of age, gender, education, rural or urban residence, weight, physical activity level, and social engagement. In this sample of older persons living in an economically disadvantaged context, we found persistent socioeconomic differentials in mortality estimated, conservatively, over 5 years. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Cumulative probability of neodymium: YAG laser posterior capsulotomy after phacoemulsification.

PubMed

Ando, Hiroshi; Ando, Nobuyo; Oshika, Tetsuro

2003-11-01

To retrospectively analyze the cumulative probability of neodymium:YAG (Nd:YAG) laser posterior capsulotomy after phacoemulsification and to evaluate the risk factors. Ando Eye Clinic, Kanagawa, Japan. In 3997 eyes that had phacoemulsification with an intact continuous curvilinear capsulorhexis, the cumulative probability of posterior capsulotomy was computed by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and risk factors were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The variables tested were sex; age; type of cataract; preoperative best corrected visual acuity (BCVA); presence of diabetes mellitus, diabetic retinopathy, or retinitis pigmentosa; type of intraocular lens (IOL); and the year the operation was performed. The IOLs were categorized as 3-piece poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA), 1-piece PMMA, 3-piece silicone, and acrylic foldable. The cumulative probability of capsulotomy after cataract surgery was 1.95%, 18.50%, and 32.70% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Positive risk factors included a better preoperative BCVA (P =.0005; risk ratio [RR], 1.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-2.5) and the presence of retinitis pigmentosa (P<.0001; RR, 6.6; 95% CI, 3.7-11.6). Women had a significantly greater probability of Nd:YAG laser posterior capsulotomy (P =.016; RR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8). The type of IOL was significantly related to the probability of Nd:YAG laser capsulotomy, with the foldable acrylic IOL having a significantly lower probability of capsulotomy. The 1-piece PMMA IOL had a significantly higher risk than 3-piece PMMA and 3-piece silicone IOLs. The probability of Nd:YAG laser capsulotomy was higher in women, in eyes with a better preoperative BCVA, and in patients with retinitis pigmentosa. The foldable acrylic IOL had a significantly lower probability of capsulotomy.

Probability of Vitamin D Deficiency by Body Weight and Race/Ethnicity.

PubMed

Weishaar, Tom; Rajan, Sonali; Keller, Bryan

2016-01-01

While most physicians recognize that vitamin D status varies by skin color because darker skin requires more light to synthesize vitamin D than lighter skin, the importance of body weight to vitamin D status is a newer, less recognized, finding. The purpose of this study was to use nationally representative US data to determine the probability of vitamin D deficiency by body weight and skin color. Using data for individuals age ≥6 years from the 2001 to 2010 cycles of the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we calculated the effect of skin color, body weight, and age on vitamin D status. We determined the probability of deficiency within the normal range of body weight for 3 race/ethnicity groups at 3 target levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D. Darker skin colors and heavier body weights are independently and significantly associated with poorer vitamin D status. We report graphically the probability of vitamin D deficiency by body weight and skin color at vitamin D targets of 20 and 30 ng/mL. The effects of skin color and body weight on vitamin D status are large both statistically and clinically. Knowledge of these effects may facilitate diagnosis of vitamin D deficiency. © Copyright 2016 by the American Board of Family Medicine.

The Long Arm of Childhood in China: Early-Life Conditions and Cognitive Function Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhenmei; Liu, Jinyu; Li, Lydia; Xu, Hongwei

2017-06-01

This study examined the association between childhood conditions and cognitive function among middle-aged and older adults in China. We analyzed data from the 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study ( N = 11,868). Cognitive function was measured by word recall, a test of episodic memory. We examined the association between childhood conditions and cognitive function among the middle-aged (45-59 years) and the older (60 years and older) adults separately, using multilevel linear regressions. Indicators of childhood socioeconomic status (SES) and nutrition were significantly associated with memory performance among the middle-aged and the older adults in China. Adulthood SES, education in particular, accounted for some but not all the associations. The protective effect of childhood urban residence was stronger for middle-aged women than for middle-aged men. Childhood conditions are significantly associated with mid- to late-life cognitive function in China. The strengths of the associations may vary by gender and cohort.

Age and Sex Variation In Prevalence Of Chronic Medical Conditions In Older Residents of U.S. Nursing Homes

PubMed Central

Moore, Kelly L.; Boscardin, W. John; Steinman, Michael A.; Schwartz, Janice B.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVES To investigate patterns in prevalences of chronic medical conditions over the agespan of long-term stay nursing home residents and between the sexes with data from the 2004 National Nursing Home Survey (NNHS). DESIGN Retrospective, cross-sectional study. SETTING U.S. nursing homes. PARTICIPANTS Nationally representative sample comprising 11,788 long-term stay residents (3003 (25%) men and 8785 women) aged 65 years or older. MEASUREMENTS Clinical Classifications Software (CCS) was used to group ICD-9 codes to identify the 20 most prevalent chronic medical conditions. SAS survey procedures were used to account for design effects of stratification and clustering to generate nationally representative estimates of prevalences of medical conditions. RESULTS Average age was 84 y, with women older than men (85 vs. 81, p=0.02) with 67% of women ages 80–95. Women required more ADL assistance. The most frequent chronic medical conditions were hypertension (53, 56%: men, women), dementia (45, 52%), depression (31, 37%), arthritis (26, 35%), diabetes mellitus (26, 23%), gastrointestinal reflux -GERD (23, 23%), atherosclerosis (24, 20%), congestive heart failure -CHF (18, 21%), cerebrovascular disease (24, 19%) and anemia (17, 20%). Sex differences in prevalences existed for all but constipation, GERD, and hypertension. Diabetes, cerebrovascular disease, and lipid disorders decreased with age in men and women. Atrial fibrillation, anemia, arthritis, CHF, and dementia, and thyroid disease increased with age in both men and women. Age-related patterns differed between the sexes for diabetes, hypertension, and Parkinson’s disease. CONCLUSION The profile of chronic medical conditions varies over the agespan of nursing home residents and differs between men and women. This knowledge should guide educational and care efforts in long-term care. PMID:22463062

Ladar range image denoising by a nonlocal probability statistics algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Zhi-Wei; Li, Qi; Xiong, Zhi-Peng; Wang, Qi

2013-01-01

According to the characteristic of range images of coherent ladar and the basis of nonlocal means (NLM), a nonlocal probability statistics (NLPS) algorithm is proposed in this paper. The difference is that NLM performs denoising using the mean of the conditional probability distribution function (PDF) while NLPS using the maximum of the marginal PDF. In the algorithm, similar blocks are found out by the operation of block matching and form a group. Pixels in the group are analyzed by probability statistics and the gray value with maximum probability is used as the estimated value of the current pixel. The simulated range images of coherent ladar with different carrier-to-noise ratio and real range image of coherent ladar with 8 gray-scales are denoised by this algorithm, and the results are compared with those of median filter, multitemplate order mean filter, NLM, median nonlocal mean filter and its incorporation of anatomical side information, and unsupervised information-theoretic adaptive filter. The range abnormality noise and Gaussian noise in range image of coherent ladar are effectively suppressed by NLPS.

The contribution of situational probability information to anticipatory skill.

PubMed

Farrow, Damian; Reid, Machar

2012-07-01

To determine the contribution of situational probability information to the anticipatory responses of skilled tennis players representative of two different stages of development. Participants were required to predict the location of tennis serves presented to them on a plasma touchscreen from the perspective of the receiver. Serves were sequenced into a series of games and sets with a score presented before each point, typical of a game of tennis. The game score was manipulated to provide advance probability information. The location of the serve for the first point of each game was always directed to the same location. A total of 12 service games consisting of 96 points were presented with interest in whether players would detect the relationship between the game score and resultant serve location. A 2×12 (age×service game) ANOVA with repeated measures on the second factor revealed a significant age by service game interaction for response time (F₁₁,₂₉₇=3.86, p<0.05, η(p)²=.12). The older players picked up the occurrence of the first point service pattern after the ninth service game whereas the younger, players did not. There were no significant response accuracy differences between the groups in relation to the first point. The findings highlight the important role of situational probability information, in addition to movement kinematics, for successful anticipatory performance and suggest that the pick-up of such information is not utilised by younger players. Copyright © 2012 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incorporating detection probability into northern Great Plains pronghorn population estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacques, Christopher N.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Grovenburg, Troy W.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.

2014-01-01

Pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) abundances commonly are estimated using fixed-wing surveys, but these estimates are likely to be negatively biased because of violations of key assumptions underpinning line-transect methodology. Reducing bias and improving precision of abundance estimates through use of detection probability and mark-resight models may allow for more responsive pronghorn management actions. Given their potential application in population estimation, we evaluated detection probability and mark-resight models for use in estimating pronghorn population abundance. We used logistic regression to quantify probabilities that detecting pronghorn might be influenced by group size, animal activity, percent vegetation, cover type, and topography. We estimated pronghorn population size by study area and year using mixed logit-normal mark-resight (MLNM) models. Pronghorn detection probability increased with group size, animal activity, and percent vegetation; overall detection probability was 0.639 (95% CI = 0.612–0.667) with 396 of 620 pronghorn groups detected. Despite model selection uncertainty, the best detection probability models were 44% (range = 8–79%) and 180% (range = 139–217%) greater than traditional pronghorn population estimates. Similarly, the best MLNM models were 28% (range = 3–58%) and 147% (range = 124–180%) greater than traditional population estimates. Detection probability of pronghorn was not constant but depended on both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. When pronghorn detection probability is a function of animal group size, animal activity, landscape complexity, and percent vegetation, traditional aerial survey techniques will result in biased pronghorn abundance estimates. Standardizing survey conditions, increasing resighting occasions, or accounting for variation in individual heterogeneity in mark-resight models will increase the accuracy and precision of pronghorn population estimates.

Occupational Choice: A Conditional Logit Model with Special Reference to Wage Subsidies and Occupational Choice. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boskin, Michael J.

A model of occupational choice based on the theory of human capital is developed and estimated by conditional logit analysis. The empirical results estimated the probability of individuals with certain characteristics (such as race, sex, age, and education) entering each of 11 occupational groups. The results indicate that individuals tend to…

Toxicity of Functional Nano-Micro Zinc Oxide Tetrapods: Impact of Cell Culture Conditions, Cellular Age and Material Properties

PubMed Central

Papavlassopoulos, Heike; Mishra, Yogendra K.; Kaps, Sören; Paulowicz, Ingo; Abdelaziz, Ramzy; Elbahri, Mady; Maser, Edmund; Adelung, Rainer; Röhl, Claudia

2014-01-01

With increasing production and applications of nanostructured zinc oxide, e.g., for biomedical and consumer products, the question of safety is getting more and more important. Different morphologies of zinc oxide structures have been synthesized and accordingly investigated. In this study, we have particularly focused on nano-micro ZnO tetrapods (ZnO-T), because their large scale fabrication has been made possible by a newly introduced flame transport synthesis approach which will probably lead to several new applications. Moreover, ZnO-T provide a completely different morphology then classical spherical ZnO nanoparticles. To get a better understanding of parameters that affect the interactions between ZnO-T and mammalian cells, and thus their biocompatibility, we have examined the impact of cell culture conditions as well as of material properties on cytotoxicity. Our results demonstrate that the cell density of fibroblasts in culture along with their age, i.e., the number of preceding cell divisions, strongly affect the cytotoxic potency of ZnO-T. Concerning the material properties, the toxic potency of ZnO-T is found to be significantly lower than that of spherical ZnO nanoparticles. Furthermore, the morphology of the ZnO-T influenced cellular toxicity in contrast to surface charges modified by UV illumination or O2 treatment and to the material age. Finally, we have observed that direct contact between tetrapods and cells increases their toxicity compared to transwell culture models which allow only an indirect effect via released zinc ions. The results reveal several parameters that can be of importance for the assessment of ZnO-T toxicity in cell cultures and for particle development. PMID:24454775

Computing exact bundle compliance control charts via probability generating functions.

PubMed

Chen, Binchao; Matis, Timothy; Benneyan, James

2016-06-01

Compliance to evidenced-base practices, individually and in 'bundles', remains an important focus of healthcare quality improvement for many clinical conditions. The exact probability distribution of composite bundle compliance measures used to develop corresponding control charts and other statistical tests is based on a fairly large convolution whose direct calculation can be computationally prohibitive. Various series expansions and other approximation approaches have been proposed, each with computational and accuracy tradeoffs, especially in the tails. This same probability distribution also arises in other important healthcare applications, such as for risk-adjusted outcomes and bed demand prediction, with the same computational difficulties. As an alternative, we use probability generating functions to rapidly obtain exact results and illustrate the improved accuracy and detection over other methods. Numerical testing across a wide range of applications demonstrates the computational efficiency and accuracy of this approach.

Intelligence, Belief in the Paranormal, Knowledge of Probability and Aging

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stuart-Hamilton, Ian; Nayak, Laxman; Priest, Lee

2006-01-01

In young adults, preparedness to accept improbable events as planned rather than due to chance is predictive of the level of belief in the paranormal, possibly underpinned by lower intelligence levels (Musch and Ehrenberg, 2002). The present study, using a sample of 73 older participants aged 60-84 years failed to find any relationship between…

Trends in the nutrient enrichment of U.S. rivers during the late 20th century and their relation to changes in probable stream trophic conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, R.B.; Smith, R.A.

2006-01-01

We estimated trends in concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) and the related change in the probabilities of trophic conditions from 1975 to 1994 at 250 nationally representative riverine monitoring locations in the U.S. with drainage areas larger than about 1,000 km2. Statistically significant (p < 0.05) declines were detected in TP and TN concentrations at 44% and 37% of the monitoring sites, and significant increases were detected at 3% and 9% of the sites, respectively. We used a statistical model to assess changes in the probable trophic-state classification of the sites after adjusting for climate-related variability in nutrient concentrations. The probabilistic assessment accounts for current knowledge of the trophic response of streams to nutrient enrichment, based on a recently proposed definition of "eutrophic," "mesotrophic," and "oligotrophic" conditions in relation to total nutrient concentrations. Based on these trophic definitions, we found that the trophic state improved at 25% of the monitoring sites and worsened at fewer than 5% of the sites; about 70% of the sites were unchanged. Improvements in trophic-state related to declines in TP were more common in predominantly forested and shrub-grassland watersheds, whereas the trophic state of predominantly agricultural sites was unchanged. Despite the declines in TP concentrations at many sites, about 50% of all monitoring sites, and more than 60% of the sites in predominantly agricultural and urban watersheds, were classified as eutrophic in 1994 based on TP concentrations. Contemporaneous reductions in major nutrient sources to streams, related to wastewater treatment upgrades, phosphate detergent bans, and declines in some agricultural sources, may have contributed to the declines in riverine nutrient concentrations and associated improvements in trophic conditions. ?? 2006, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, Inc.

[Effect of age, different light conditions, melatonin, and epitalon on lysosomal proteinase activity in the liver and kidneys of rats].

PubMed

Rendakov, N L; Tiutiunnik, N N; Vinogradova, I A

2006-01-01

Ageing, melatonin, epithalon (tetrapeptide Ala-Glu-Asp-Gly) and different light conditions effects on protein content and cathepsins B and D activities in rat liver and kidneys lysosomal fractions were studied. Ageing leads to decrease of cathepsins activity in rat liver lysosomal fractions. Constant light and darkness conditions result in earlier age decline of cathepsins activity. Absence of day and night succession in comparison with alternating light conditions causes decline of both general and specific cathepsin D activity. Melatonin and epithalon administration resulted in decrease of cathepsin D activity in liver only under control interchangeable light conditions. Cathepsin B activity in liver and kidneys lysosomal fractions declined in all experimental light conditions. Cathepsins activity decrease under the influence of epiphysial factors is evidently connected with their inhibitory effect on protein and general metabolism.

Concurrent choice for social interaction and amphetamine using conditioned place preference in rats: effects of age and housing condition.

PubMed

Yates, Justin R; Beckmann, Joshua S; Meyer, Andrew C; Bardo, Michael T

2013-05-01

Social interaction can serve as a natural reward that attenuates drug reward in rats; however, it is unknown if age or housing conditions alter the choice between social interaction and drug. Individually- and pair-housed adolescent and adult male rats were tested using conditioned place preference (CPP) in separate experiments in which: (1) social interaction was conditioned against no social interaction; (2) amphetamine (AMPH; 1mg/kg, s.c.) was conditioned against saline; or (3) social interaction was conditioned against AMPH. Social interaction CPP was obtained only in individually-housed adolescents, whereas AMPH CPP was obtained in both individually-housed adolescents and adults; however, the effect of AMPH was not statistically significant in pair-housed adults. When allowed to choose concurrently between compartments paired with either social interaction or AMPH, individually-housed adolescents preferred the compartment paired with social interaction, whereas pair-housed adolescents preferred the compartment paired with AMPH. Regardless of housing condition, adults showed a similar preference for the compartments paired with either social interaction or AMPH. Although some caution is needed in interpreting cross-experiment comparisons, the overall results suggest that individually-housed adolescents were most sensitive to the rewarding effect of social interaction, and this hypersensitivity to social reward effectively competed with AMPH reward. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Timing of Maturational Spurts in Skeletal Age

PubMed Central

Nahhas, Ramzi W.; Sherwood, Richard J.; Chumlea, Wm. Cameron; Towne, Bradford; Duren, Dana L.

2014-01-01

Measures of maturity provide windows into the timing and tempo of childhood growth and maturation. Delayed maturation in a single child, or systemically in a population, can result from either genetic or environmental factors. In terms of the skeleton, delayed maturation may result in short stature or indicate another underlying issue. Thus, prediction of the timing of a maturational spurt is often desirable in order to determine the likelihood that a child will catch up to their chronological age peers. Serial data from the Fels Longitudinal Study were used to predict future skeletal age conditional on current skeletal age and to predict the timing of maturational spurts. For children who were delayed relative to their chronological age peers, the like-lihood of catch-up maturation increased through the average age of onset of puberty and decreased prior to the average age of peak height velocity. For boys, the probability of an imminent maturational spurt was higher for those who were less mature. For girls aged 11 to 13 years, however, this probability was higher for those who were more mature, potentially indicating the presence of a skeletal maturation plateau between multiple spurts. The prediction model, available on the web, is most relevant to children of European ancestry living in the Midwestern US. Our model may also provide insight into the tempo of maturation for children in other populations, but must be applied with caution if those populations are known to have high burdens of environmental stressors not typical of the Midwestern US. Am J Phys Anthropol 150:68–75, 2013. PMID:23283666

The estimated lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus in the United States.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Dunne, Eileen F; Hariri, Susan; Markowitz, Lauri E

2014-11-01

Estimates of the lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus (HPV) can help to quantify HPV incidence, illustrate how common HPV infection is, and highlight the importance of HPV vaccination. We developed a simple model, based primarily on the distribution of lifetime numbers of sex partners across the population and the per-partnership probability of acquiring HPV, to estimate the lifetime probability of acquiring HPV in the United States in the time frame before HPV vaccine availability. We estimated the average lifetime probability of acquiring HPV among those with at least 1 opposite sex partner to be 84.6% (range, 53.6%-95.0%) for women and 91.3% (range, 69.5%-97.7%) for men. Under base case assumptions, more than 80% of women and men acquire HPV by age 45 years. Our results are consistent with estimates in the existing literature suggesting a high lifetime probability of HPV acquisition and are supported by cohort studies showing high cumulative HPV incidence over a relatively short period, such as 3 to 5 years.

ERP Correlates of Verbal and Numerical Probabilities in Risky Choices: A Two-Stage Probability Processing View

PubMed Central

Li, Shu; Du, Xue-Lei; Li, Qi; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Wang, Yun; Rao, Li-Lin

2016-01-01

Two kinds of probability expressions, verbal and numerical, have been used to characterize the uncertainty that people face. However, the question of whether verbal and numerical probabilities are cognitively processed in a similar manner remains unresolved. From a levels-of-processing perspective, verbal and numerical probabilities may be processed differently during early sensory processing but similarly in later semantic-associated operations. This event-related potential (ERP) study investigated the neural processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. The results showed that verbal probability and numerical probability elicited different N1 amplitudes but that verbal and numerical probabilities elicited similar N2 and P3 waveforms in response to different levels of probability (high to low). These results were consistent with a levels-of-processing framework and suggest some internal consistency between the cognitive processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. Our findings shed light on possible mechanism underlying probability expression and may provide the neural evidence to support the translation of verbal to numerical probabilities (or vice versa). PMID:26834612

Modeling the probability distribution of peak discharge for infiltrating hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baiamonte, Giorgio; Singh, Vijay P.

2017-07-01

Hillslope response plays a fundamental role in the prediction of peak discharge at the basin outlet. The peak discharge for the critical duration of rainfall and its probability distribution are needed for designing urban infrastructure facilities. This study derives the probability distribution, denoted as GABS model, by coupling three models: (1) the Green-Ampt model for computing infiltration, (2) the kinematic wave model for computing discharge hydrograph from the hillslope, and (3) the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) model for computing design rainfall intensity. The Hortonian mechanism for runoff generation is employed for computing the surface runoff hydrograph. Since the antecedent soil moisture condition (ASMC) significantly affects the rate of infiltration, its effect on the probability distribution of peak discharge is investigated. Application to a watershed in Sicily, Italy, shows that with the increase of probability, the expected effect of ASMC to increase the maximum discharge diminishes. Only for low values of probability, the critical duration of rainfall is influenced by ASMC, whereas its effect on the peak discharge seems to be less for any probability. For a set of parameters, the derived probability distribution of peak discharge seems to be fitted by the gamma distribution well. Finally, an application to a small watershed, with the aim to test the possibility to arrange in advance the rational runoff coefficient tables to be used for the rational method, and a comparison between peak discharges obtained by the GABS model with those measured in an experimental flume for a loamy-sand soil were carried out.

Impaired delay and trace eyeblink conditioning in school-age children with fetal alcohol syndrome.

PubMed

Jacobson, Sandra W; Stanton, Mark E; Dodge, Neil C; Pienaar, Mariska; Fuller, Douglas S; Molteno, Christopher D; Meintjes, Ernesta M; Hoyme, H Eugene; Robinson, Luther K; Khaole, Nathaniel; Jacobson, Joseph L

2011-02-01

Classical eyeblink conditioning (EBC) involves contingent temporal pairing of a conditioned stimulus (e.g., tone) with an unconditioned stimulus (e.g., air puff). Impairment of EBC has been demonstrated in studies of alcohol-exposed animals and in children exposed prenatally at heavy levels. Fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) was diagnosed by expert dysmorphologists in a large sample of Cape Coloured, South African children. Delay EBC was examined in a new sample of 63 children at 11.3 years, and trace conditioning in 32 of the same children at 12.8 years. At each age, 2 sessions of 50 trials each were administered on the same day; 2 more sessions the next day, for children not meeting criterion for conditioning. Six of 34 (17.6%) children born to heavy drinkers were diagnosed with FAS, 28 were heavily exposed nonsyndromal (HE), and 29 were nonexposed controls. Only 33.3% with FAS and 42.9% of HE met criterion for delay conditioning, compared with 79.3% of controls. The more difficult trace conditioning task was also highly sensitive to fetal alcohol exposure. Only 16.7% of the FAS and 21.4% of HE met criterion for trace conditioning, compared with 66.7% of controls. The magnitude of the effect of diagnostic group on trace conditioning was not greater than the effect on short delay conditioning, findings consistent with recent rat studies. Longer latency to onset and peak eyeblink CR in exposed children indicated poor timing and failure to blink in anticipation of the puff. Extended training resulted in some but not all of the children reaching criterion. These data showing alcohol-related delay and trace conditioning deficits extend our earlier findings of impaired EBC in 5-year-olds to school-age. Alcohol-related impairment in the cerebellar circuitry required for both forms of conditioning may be sufficient to account for the deficit in both tasks. Extended training was beneficial for some exposed children. EBC provides a well-characterized model system for assessment

Impaired delay and trace eyeblink conditioning in school-age children with fetal alcohol syndrome

PubMed Central

Jacobson, Sandra W.; Stanton, Mark E.; Dodge, Neil C.; Pienaar, Mariska; Fuller, Douglas S.; Molteno, Christopher D.; Meintjes, Ernesta M.; Hoyme, H. Eugene; Robinson, Luther K.; Khaole, Nathaniel; Jacobson, Joseph L.

2013-01-01

Background Classical eyeblink conditioning (EBC) involves contingent temporal pairing of a conditioned stimulus (e.g., tone) with an unconditioned stimulus (e.g., air puff). Impairment of EBC has been demonstrated in studies of alcohol-exposed animals and in children exposed prenatally at heavy levels. Methods Fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) was diagnosed by expert dysmorphologists in a large sample of Cape Coloured, South African children. Delay EBC was examined in a new sample of 63 children at 11.3 years, and trace conditioning in 32 of the same children at 12.8 years. At each age, two sessions of 50 trials each were administered on the same day; two more sessions the next day, for children not meeting criterion for conditioning. Results 6 of 34 (17.6%) children born to heavy drinkers were diagnosed with FAS, 28 were heavily exposed nonsyndromal (HE), and 29 were non-exposed controls. Only 33.3% with FAS and 42.9% of HE met criterion for delay conditioning, compared with 79.3% of controls. The more difficult trace conditioning task was also highly sensitive to fetal alcohol exposure. Only 16.7% of the FAS and 21.4% of HE met criterion for trace conditioning, compared with 66.7% of controls. The magnitude of the effect of diagnostic group on trace conditioning was not greater than the effect on short delay conditioning, findings consistent with recent rat studies. Longer latency to onset and peak eyeblink CR in exposed children indicated poor timing and failure to blink in anticipation of the puff. Extended training resulted in some but not all of the children reaching criterion. Conclusions These data showing alcohol-related delay and trace conditioning deficits extend our earlier findings of impaired EBC in 5-year-olds to school-age. Alcohol-related impairment in the cerebellar circuitry required for both forms of conditioning may be sufficient to account for the deficit in both tasks. Extended training was beneficial for some exposed children. EBC provides a well

Effects of Geroprotectors on Age-Related Changes in Proteolytic Digestive Enzyme Activities at Different Lighting Conditions.

PubMed

Morozov, A V; Khizhkin, E A; Svechkina, E B; Vinogradova, I A; Ilyukha, V A; Anisimov, V N; Khavinson, V Kh

2015-10-01

We studied the effect of melatonin and epithalon on age-related changes in proteolytic digestive enzyme activity in the pancreas and gastric mucosa of rats kept under different lighting conditions. In rats kept under standard illumination, pepsin activity and the total proteolytic activity in the stomach and pancreas increased by the age of 12 months, but then decreased. Constant and natural lighting disturbed the age dynamics of proteolytic digestive enzyme activity. Administration of melatonin and epithalon to animals exposed to constant lighting restored age dynamics of pepsin activity and little affected total proteolytic activity.

Delaying childbearing: effect of age on fecundity and outcome of pregnancy.

PubMed Central

van Noord-Zaadstra, B M; Looman, C W; Alsbach, H; Habbema, J D; te Velde, E R; Karbaat, J

1991-01-01

OBJECTIVES--To study the age of the start of the fall (critical age) in fecundity; the probability of a pregnancy leading to a healthy baby taking into account the age of the woman; and, combining these results, to determine the age dependent probability of getting a healthy baby. DESIGN--Cohort study of all women who had entered a donor insemination programme. SETTING--Two fertility clinics serving a large part of The Netherlands. SUBJECTS--Of 1637 women attending for artificial insemination 751 fulfilled the selection criteria, being married to an azoospermic husband and nulliparous and never having received donor insemination before. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--The number of cycles before pregnancy (a positive pregnancy test result) or stopping treatment; and result of the pregnancy (successful outcome). RESULTS--Of the 751 women, 555 became pregnant and 461 had healthy babies. The fall in fecundity was estimated to start at around 31 years (critical age); after 12 cycles the probability of pregnancy in a woman aged greater than 31 was 0.54 compared with 0.74 in a woman aged 20.31. After 24 cycles this difference had decreased (probability of conception 0.75 in women greater than 31 and 0.85 in women 20.31). The probability of having a healthy baby also decreased--by 3.5% a year after the age of 30. Combining both these age effects, the chance of a woman aged 35 having a healthy baby was about half that of a woman aged 25. CONCLUSION--After the age of 31 the probability of conception falls rapidly, but this can be partly compensated for by continuing insemination for more cycles. In addition, the probability of an adverse pregnancy outcome starts to increase at about the same age. PMID:2059713

Aggregate and individual replication probability within an explicit model of the research process.

PubMed

Miller, Jeff; Schwarz, Wolf

2011-09-01

We study a model of the research process in which the true effect size, the replication jitter due to changes in experimental procedure, and the statistical error of effect size measurement are all normally distributed random variables. Within this model, we analyze the probability of successfully replicating an initial experimental result by obtaining either a statistically significant result in the same direction or any effect in that direction. We analyze both the probability of successfully replicating a particular experimental effect (i.e., the individual replication probability) and the average probability of successful replication across different studies within some research context (i.e., the aggregate replication probability), and we identify the conditions under which the latter can be approximated using the formulas of Killeen (2005a, 2007). We show how both of these probabilities depend on parameters of the research context that would rarely be known in practice. In addition, we show that the statistical uncertainty associated with the size of an initial observed effect would often prevent accurate estimation of the desired individual replication probability even if these research context parameters were known exactly. We conclude that accurate estimates of replication probability are generally unattainable.

Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballentine, Leslie E.

2016-08-01

Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

Conditional survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase in the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

PubMed

Sasaki, Koji; Kantarjian, Hagop M; Jain, Preetesh; Jabbour, Elias J; Ravandi, Farhad; Konopleva, Marina; Borthakur, Gautam; Takahashi, Koichi; Pemmaraju, Naveen; Daver, Naval; Pierce, Sherry A; O'Brien, Susan M; Cortes, Jorge E

2016-01-15

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) significantly improve survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase (CML-CP). Conditional probability provides survival information in patients who have already survived for a specific period of time after treatment. Cumulative response and survival data from 6 consecutive frontline TKI clinical trials were analyzed. Conditional probability was calculated for failure-free survival (FFS), transformation-free survival (TFS), event-free survival (EFS), and overall survival (OS) according to depth of response within 1 year of the initiation of TKIs, including complete cytogenetic response, major molecular response, and molecular response with a 4-log or 4.5-log reduction. A total of 483 patients with a median follow-up of 99.4 months from the initiation of treatment with TKIs were analyzed. Conditional probabilities of FFS, TFS, EFS, and OS for 1 additional year for patients alive after 12 months of therapy ranged from 92.0% to 99.1%, 98.5% to 100%, 96.2% to 99.6%, and 96.8% to 99.7%, respectively. Conditional FFS for 1 additional year did not improve with a deeper response each year. Conditional probabilities of TFS, EFS, and OS for 1 additional year were maintained at >95% during the period. In the era of TKIs, patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase who survived for a certain number of years maintained excellent clinical outcomes in each age group. Cancer 2016;122:238-248. © 2015 American Cancer Society. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

The Effects of Framing, Reflection, Probability, and Payoff on Risk Preference in Choice Tasks.

PubMed

Kühberger; Schulte-Mecklenbeck; Perner

1999-06-01

A meta-analysis of Asian-disease-like studies is presented to identify the factors which determine risk preference. First the confoundings between probability levels, payoffs, and framing conditions are clarified in a task analysis. Then the role of framing, reflection, probability, type, and size of payoff is evaluated in a meta-analysis. It is shown that bidirectional framing effects exist for gains and for losses. Presenting outcomes as gains tends to induce risk aversion, while presenting outcomes as losses tends to induce risk seeking. Risk preference is also shown to depend on the size of the payoffs, on the probability levels, and on the type of good at stake (money/property vs human lives). In general, higher payoffs lead to increasing risk aversion. Higher probabilities lead to increasing risk aversion for gains and to increasing risk seeking for losses. These findings are confirmed by a subsequent empirical test. Shortcomings of existing formal theories, such as prospect theory, cumulative prospect theory, venture theory, and Markowitz's utility theory, are identified. It is shown that it is not probabilities or payoffs, but the framing condition, which explains most variance. These findings are interpreted as showing that no linear combination of formally relevant predictors is sufficient to capture the essence of the framing phenomenon. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Brain aging and Aβ₁₋₄₂ neurotoxicity converge via deterioration in autophagy-lysosomal system: a conditional Drosophila model linking Alzheimer's neurodegeneration with aging.

PubMed

Ling, Daijun; Salvaterra, Paul M

2011-02-01

Aging is known to be the most prominent risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD); however, the underlying mechanism linking brain aging with AD pathogenesis remains unknown. The expression of human amyloid beta 42 peptide (Aβ₁₋₄₂), but not Aβ₁₋₄₀ in Drosophila brain induces an early onset and progressive autophagy-lysosomal neuropathology. Here we show that the natural process of brain aging also accompanies a chronic and late-onset deterioration of neuronal autophagy-lysosomal system. This process is characterized by accumulation of dysfunctional autophagy-lysosomal vesicles, a compromise of these vesicles leading to damage of intracellular membranes and organelles, necrotic-like intraneuronal destruction and neurodegeneration. In addition, conditional activation of neuronal autophagy in young animals is protective while late activation is deleterious for survival. Intriguingly, conditional Aβ₁₋₄₂ expression limited to young animals exacerbates the aging process to a greater extent than Aβ₁₋₄₂ expression in old animals. These data suggest that the neuronal autophagy-lysosomal system may shift from a functional and protective state to a pathological and deleterious state either during brain aging or via Aβ₁₋₄₂ neurotoxicity. A chronic deterioration of the neuronal autophagy-lysosomal system is likely to be a key event in transitioning from normal brain aging to pathological aging leading to Alzheimer's neurodegeneration.

The Context Matters: Outcome Probability and Expectation Mismatch Modulate the Feedback Negativity When Self-Evaluation of Response Correctness Is Possible

PubMed Central

Leue, Anja; Cano Rodilla, Carmen; Beauducel, André

2015-01-01

Individuals typically evaluate whether their performance and the obtained feedback match. Previous research has shown that feedback negativity (FN) depends on outcome probability and feedback valence. It is, however, less clear to what extent previous effects of outcome probability on FN depend on self-evaluations of response correctness. Therefore, we investigated the effects of outcome probability on FN amplitude in a simple go/no-go task that allowed for the self-evaluation of response correctness. We also investigated effects of performance incompatibility and feedback valence. In a sample of N = 22 participants, outcome probability was manipulated by means of precues, feedback valence by means of monetary feedback, and performance incompatibility by means of feedback that induced a match versus mismatch with individuals' performance. We found that the 100% outcome probability condition induced a more negative FN following no-loss than the 50% outcome probability condition. The FN following loss was more negative in the 50% compared to the 100% outcome probability condition. Performance-incompatible loss resulted in a more negative FN than performance-compatible loss. Our results indicate that the self-evaluation of the correctness of responses should be taken into account when the effects of outcome probability and expectation mismatch on FN are investigated. PMID:26783525

The Context Matters: Outcome Probability and Expectation Mismatch Modulate the Feedback Negativity When Self-Evaluation of Response Correctness Is Possible.

PubMed

Leue, Anja; Cano Rodilla, Carmen; Beauducel, André

2015-01-01

Individuals typically evaluate whether their performance and the obtained feedback match. Previous research has shown that feedback negativity (FN) depends on outcome probability and feedback valence. It is, however, less clear to what extent previous effects of outcome probability on FN depend on self-evaluations of response correctness. Therefore, we investigated the effects of outcome probability on FN amplitude in a simple go/no-go task that allowed for the self-evaluation of response correctness. We also investigated effects of performance incompatibility and feedback valence. In a sample of N = 22 participants, outcome probability was manipulated by means of precues, feedback valence by means of monetary feedback, and performance incompatibility by means of feedback that induced a match versus mismatch with individuals' performance. We found that the 100% outcome probability condition induced a more negative FN following no-loss than the 50% outcome probability condition. The FN following loss was more negative in the 50% compared to the 100% outcome probability condition. Performance-incompatible loss resulted in a more negative FN than performance-compatible loss. Our results indicate that the self-evaluation of the correctness of responses should be taken into account when the effects of outcome probability and expectation mismatch on FN are investigated.

Estimation of the probability of success in petroleum exploration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, J.C.

1977-01-01

A probabilistic model for oil exploration can be developed by assessing the conditional relationship between perceived geologic variables and the subsequent discovery of petroleum. Such a model includes two probabilistic components, the first reflecting the association between a geologic condition (structural closure, for example) and the occurrence of oil, and the second reflecting the uncertainty associated with the estimation of geologic variables in areas of limited control. Estimates of the conditional relationship between geologic variables and subsequent production can be found by analyzing the exploration history of a "training area" judged to be geologically similar to the exploration area. The geologic variables are assessed over the training area using an historical subset of the available data, whose density corresponds to the present control density in the exploration area. The success or failure of wells drilled in the training area subsequent to the time corresponding to the historical subset provides empirical estimates of the probability of success conditional upon geology. Uncertainty in perception of geological conditions may be estimated from the distribution of errors made in geologic assessment using the historical subset of control wells. These errors may be expressed as a linear function of distance from available control. Alternatively, the uncertainty may be found by calculating the semivariogram of the geologic variables used in the analysis: the two procedures will yield approximately equivalent results. The empirical probability functions may then be transferred to the exploration area and used to estimate the likelihood of success of specific exploration plays. These estimates will reflect both the conditional relationship between the geological variables used to guide exploration and the uncertainty resulting from lack of control. The technique is illustrated with case histories from the mid-Continent area of the U.S.A. ?? 1977 Plenum

Childhood conditions and current physical performance among non-institutionalized individuals aged 50+ in Israel.

PubMed

Weinstein, Galit

2016-12-01

Adverse socioeconomic conditions in childhood have been previously linked with high risk of various health conditions. However, the association with future physical function has been less studied. Hand grip strength and chair-rising time are objective measures of physical capability indicating current and future health outcomes. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that perceived socio-economic status in childhood is related to current measures of physical function, among Israeli participants of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe project. The study included 2300 participants aged 50 years or older (mean age 68 ± 10; 56 % women). Generalized linear regression models were used to examine the associations of childhood wealth and number of books in residence with grip strength and time to complete five rises from a chair. Logistic regression models were used to assess the relationships between the early life conditions and the ability to perform the physical tests. Adjustment was made for current income or household wealth, and for demographic, anthropometric, health, and life-style measures. Being wealthy and having a large number of books at home in childhood was associated with a stronger hand grip and a better chair-rise test performance. These associations were more robust in women compared to men, and persisted after adjustment for potential covariates. In addition, childhood wealth and number of books were associated with lower risk of being unable to perform the tests. Thus, early-life programming may contribute to physical function indicators in mid- and late-life.

Age and Terrorist Victimization.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trela, James; Hewitt, Christopher

While research has examined how age-related factors structure the probability of experiencing a particular event or suffering a particular kind of injury, one issue which has not been empirically addressed is the age structure of victimization from terrorist activity and civil strife. To explore the relationship between age and terrorist…

Rapidly assessing the probability of exceptionally high natural hazard losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gollini, Isabella; Rougier, Jonathan

2014-05-01

One of the objectives in catastrophe modeling is to assess the probability distribution of losses for a specified period, such as a year. From the point of view of an insurance company, the whole of the loss distribution is interesting, and valuable in determining insurance premiums. But the shape of the righthand tail is critical, because it impinges on the solvency of the company. A simple measure of the risk of insolvency is the probability that the annual loss will exceed the company's current operating capital. Imposing an upper limit on this probability is one of the objectives of the EU Solvency II directive. If a probabilistic model is supplied for the loss process, then this tail probability can be computed, either directly, or by simulation. This can be a lengthy calculation for complex losses. Given the inevitably subjective nature of quantifying loss distributions, computational resources might be better used in a sensitivity analysis. This requires either a quick approximation to the tail probability or an upper bound on the probability, ideally a tight one. We present several different bounds, all of which can be computed nearly instantly from a very general event loss table. We provide a numerical illustration, and discuss the conditions under which the bound is tight. Although we consider the perspective of insurance and reinsurance companies, exactly the same issues concern the risk manager, who is typically very sensitive to large losses.

[A modification of the Gompertz plot resulting from the age index by Ries and an approximation of the survivorship curve (author's transl)].

PubMed

Lohmann, W

1978-01-01

The shape of the survivorship curve can easily be interpreted on condition that the probability of death is proportional to an exponentially rising function of ageing. According to the formation of a sum for determining of the age index by Ries it was investigated to what extent the survivorship curve may be approximated by a sum of exponentials. It follows that the difference between the pure exponential function and a sum of exponentials by using possible values is lying within the random variation. Because the probability of death for different diseases is variable, the new statement is a better one.

Decision analysis with approximate probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whalen, Thomas

1992-01-01

This paper concerns decisions under uncertainty in which the probabilities of the states of nature are only approximately known. Decision problems involving three states of nature are studied. This is due to the fact that some key issues do not arise in two-state problems, while probability spaces with more than three states of nature are essentially impossible to graph. The primary focus is on two levels of probabilistic information. In one level, the three probabilities are separately rounded to the nearest tenth. This can lead to sets of rounded probabilities which add up to 0.9, 1.0, or 1.1. In the other level, probabilities are rounded to the nearest tenth in such a way that the rounded probabilities are forced to sum to 1.0. For comparison, six additional levels of probabilistic information, previously analyzed, were also included in the present analysis. A simulation experiment compared four criteria for decisionmaking using linearly constrained probabilities (Maximin, Midpoint, Standard Laplace, and Extended Laplace) under the eight different levels of information about probability. The Extended Laplace criterion, which uses a second order maximum entropy principle, performed best overall.

Effect of in vitro aging on the flexural strength and probability to fracture of Y-TZP zirconia ceramics for all-ceramic restorations.

PubMed

Siarampi, Eleni; Kontonasaki, Eleana; Andrikopoulos, Konstantinos S; Kantiranis, Nikolaos; Voyiatzis, George A; Zorba, Triantafillia; Paraskevopoulos, Konstantinos M; Koidis, Petros

2014-12-01

Dental zirconia restorations should present long-term clinical survival and be in service within the oral environment for many years. However, low temperature degradation could affect their mechanical properties and survival. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of in vitro aging on the flexural strength of yttrium-stabilized (Y-TZP) zirconia ceramics for ceramic restorations. One hundred twenty bar-shaped specimens were prepared from two ceramics (ZENO Zr (WI) and IPS e.max(®) ZirCAD (IV)), and loaded until fracture according to ISO 6872. The specimens from each ceramic (nx=60) were divided in three groups (control, aged for 5h, aged for 10h). One-way ANOVA was used to assess statistically significant differences among flexural strength values (P<0.05). The variability of the flexural strength values was analyzed using the two-parameter Weibull distribution function, which was applied for the estimation of Weibull modulus (m) and characteristic strength (σ0). The crystalline phase polymorphs of the materials (tetragonal, t, and monoclinic, m, zirconia) were investigated by X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis, Raman spectroscopy and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. A slight increase of the flexural strength after 5h, and a decrease after 10h of aging, was recorded for both ceramics, however statistically significant was for the WI group (P<0.05). Both ceramics presented a t→m phase transformation, with the m-phase increasing from 4 to 5% at 5h to around 15% after 10h. The significant reduction of the flexural strength after 10h of in vitro aging, suggests high fracture probability for one of the zirconia ceramics tested. Copyright © 2014 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive probability methods for interim monitoring in clinical trials with longitudinal outcomes.

PubMed

Zhou, Ming; Tang, Qi; Lang, Lixin; Xing, Jun; Tatsuoka, Kay

2018-04-17

In clinical research and development, interim monitoring is critical for better decision-making and minimizing the risk of exposing patients to possible ineffective therapies. For interim futility or efficacy monitoring, predictive probability methods are widely adopted in practice. Those methods have been well studied for univariate variables. However, for longitudinal studies, predictive probability methods using univariate information from only completers may not be most efficient, and data from on-going subjects can be utilized to improve efficiency. On the other hand, leveraging information from on-going subjects could allow an interim analysis to be potentially conducted once a sufficient number of subjects reach an earlier time point. For longitudinal outcomes, we derive closed-form formulas for predictive probabilities, including Bayesian predictive probability, predictive power, and conditional power and also give closed-form solutions for predictive probability of success in a future trial and the predictive probability of success of the best dose. When predictive probabilities are used for interim monitoring, we study their distributions and discuss their analytical cutoff values or stopping boundaries that have desired operating characteristics. We show that predictive probabilities utilizing all longitudinal information are more efficient for interim monitoring than that using information from completers only. To illustrate their practical application for longitudinal data, we analyze 2 real data examples from clinical trials. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

PubMed

Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

2012-12-20

Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Non-Fickian dispersion of groundwater age

PubMed Central

Engdahl, Nicholas B.; Ginn, Timothy R.; Fogg, Graham E.

2014-01-01

We expand the governing equation of groundwater age to account for non-Fickian dispersive fluxes using continuous random walks. Groundwater age is included as an additional (fifth) dimension on which the volumetric mass density of water is distributed and we follow the classical random walk derivation now in five dimensions. The general solution of the random walk recovers the previous conventional model of age when the low order moments of the transition density functions remain finite at their limits and describes non-Fickian age distributions when the transition densities diverge. Previously published transition densities are then used to show how the added dimension in age affects the governing differential equations. Depending on which transition densities diverge, the resulting models may be nonlocal in time, space, or age and can describe asymptotic or pre-asymptotic dispersion. A joint distribution function of time and age transitions is developed as a conditional probability and a natural result of this is that time and age must always have identical transition rate functions. This implies that a transition density defined for age can substitute for a density in time and this has implications for transport model parameter estimation. We present examples of simulated age distributions from a geologically based, heterogeneous domain that exhibit non-Fickian behavior and show that the non-Fickian model provides better descriptions of the distributions than the Fickian model. PMID:24976651

Recruitment in a Colorado population of big brown bats: Breeding probabilities, litter size, and first-year survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Neubaum, D.J.; Neubaum, M.A.; Reynolds, C.A.; Bowen, R.A.

2010-01-01

We used markrecapture estimation techniques and radiography to test hypotheses about 3 important aspects of recruitment in big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado: adult breeding probabilities, litter size, and 1st-year survival of young. We marked 2,968 females with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags at multiple sites during 2001-2005 and based our assessments on direct recaptures (breeding probabilities) and passive detection with automated PIT tag readers (1st-year survival). We interpreted our data in relation to hypotheses regarding demographic influences of bat age, roost, and effects of years with unusual environmental conditions: extreme drought (2002) and arrival of a West Nile virus epizootic (2003). Conditional breeding probabilities at 6 roosts sampled in 2002-2005 were estimated as 0.64 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.530.73) in 1-year-old females, but were consistently high (95% CI = 0.940.96) and did not vary by roost, year, or prior year breeding status in older adults. Mean litter size was 1.11 (95% CI = 1.051.17), based on examination of 112 pregnant females by radiography. Litter size was not higher in older or larger females and was similar to results of other studies in western North America despite wide variation in latitude. First-year survival was estimated as 0.67 (95% CI = 0.610.73) for weaned females at 5 maternity roosts over 5 consecutive years, was lower than adult survival (0.79; 95% CI = 0.770.81), and varied by roost. Based on model selection criteria, strong evidence exists for complex roost and year effects on 1st-year survival. First-year survival was lowest in bats born during the drought year. Juvenile females that did not return to roosts as 1-year-olds had lower body condition indices in late summer of their natal year than those known to survive. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

Probability theory versus simulation of petroleum potential in play analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.

1987-01-01

An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An objective was to replace an existing Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase the efficiency of the appraisal process. Underlying the two methods is a single geologic model which considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The results of the model are resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and a closed form solution of all means and standard deviations, along with the probabilities of occurrence. ?? 1987 J.C. Baltzer A.G., Scientific Publishing Company.

Questioning the Relevance of Model-Based Probability Statements on Extreme Weather and Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2007-12-01

We question the relevance of climate-model based Bayesian (or other) probability statements for decision support and impact assessment on spatial scales less than continental and temporal averages less than seasonal. Scientific assessment of higher resolution space and time scale information is urgently needed, given the commercial availability of "products" at high spatiotemporal resolution, their provision by nationally funded agencies for use both in industry decision making and governmental policy support, and their presentation to the public as matters of fact. Specifically we seek to establish necessary conditions for probability forecasts (projections conditioned on a model structure and a forcing scenario) to be taken seriously as reflecting the probability of future real-world events. We illustrate how risk management can profitably employ imperfect models of complicated chaotic systems, following NASA's study of near-Earth PHOs (Potentially Hazardous Objects). Our climate models will never be perfect, nevertheless the space and time scales on which they provide decision- support relevant information is expected to improve with the models themselves. Our aim is to establish a set of baselines of internal consistency; these are merely necessary conditions (not sufficient conditions) that physics based state-of-the-art models are expected to pass if their output is to be judged decision support relevant. Probabilistic Similarity is proposed as one goal which can be obtained even when our models are not empirically adequate. In short, probabilistic similarity requires that, given inputs similar to today's empirical observations and observational uncertainties, we expect future models to produce similar forecast distributions. Expert opinion on the space and time scales on which we might reasonably expect probabilistic similarity may prove of much greater utility than expert elicitation of uncertainty in parameter values in a model that is not empirically

Informing Environmental Water Management Decisions: Using Conditional Probability Networks to Address the Information Needs of Planning and Implementation Cycles.

PubMed

Horne, Avril C; Szemis, Joanna M; Webb, J Angus; Kaur, Simranjit; Stewardson, Michael J; Bond, Nick; Nathan, Rory

2018-03-01

One important aspect of adaptive management is the clear and transparent documentation of hypotheses, together with the use of predictive models (complete with any assumptions) to test those hypotheses. Documentation of such models can improve the ability to learn from management decisions and supports dialog between stakeholders. A key challenge is how best to represent the existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making. Such challenges are currently emerging in the field of environmental water management in Australia, where managers are required to prioritize the delivery of environmental water on an annual basis, using a transparent and evidence-based decision framework. We argue that the development of models of ecological responses to environmental water use needs to support both the planning and implementation cycles of adaptive management. Here we demonstrate an approach based on the use of Conditional Probability Networks to translate existing ecological knowledge into quantitative models that include temporal dynamics to support adaptive environmental flow management. It equally extends to other applications where knowledge is incomplete, but decisions must still be made.

Informing Environmental Water Management Decisions: Using Conditional Probability Networks to Address the Information Needs of Planning and Implementation Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horne, Avril C.; Szemis, Joanna M.; Webb, J. Angus; Kaur, Simranjit; Stewardson, Michael J.; Bond, Nick; Nathan, Rory

2018-03-01

One important aspect of adaptive management is the clear and transparent documentation of hypotheses, together with the use of predictive models (complete with any assumptions) to test those hypotheses. Documentation of such models can improve the ability to learn from management decisions and supports dialog between stakeholders. A key challenge is how best to represent the existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making. Such challenges are currently emerging in the field of environmental water management in Australia, where managers are required to prioritize the delivery of environmental water on an annual basis, using a transparent and evidence-based decision framework. We argue that the development of models of ecological responses to environmental water use needs to support both the planning and implementation cycles of adaptive management. Here we demonstrate an approach based on the use of Conditional Probability Networks to translate existing ecological knowledge into quantitative models that include temporal dynamics to support adaptive environmental flow management. It equally extends to other applications where knowledge is incomplete, but decisions must still be made.

Concurrent progressive ratio schedules: Effects of reinforcer probability on breakpoint and response allocation.

PubMed

Jarmolowicz, David P; Sofis, Michael J; Darden, Alexandria C

2016-07-01

Although progressive ratio (PR) schedules have been used to explore effects of a range of reinforcer parameters (e.g., magnitude, delay), effects of reinforcer probability remain underexplored. The present project used independently progressing concurrent PR PR schedules to examine effects of reinforcer probability on PR breakpoint (highest completed ratio prior to a session terminating 300s pause) and response allocation. The probability of reinforcement on one lever remained at 100% across all conditions while the probability of reinforcement on the other lever was systematically manipulated (i.e., 100%, 50%, 25%, 12.5%, and a replication of 25%). Breakpoints systematically decreased with decreasing reinforcer probabilities while breakpoints on the control lever remained unchanged. Patterns of switching between the two levers were well described by a choice-by-choice unit price model that accounted for the hyperbolic discounting of the value of probabilistic reinforcers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recursive recovery of Markov transition probabilities from boundary value data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patch, Sarah Kathyrn

1994-04-01

In an effort to mathematically describe the anisotropic diffusion of infrared radiation in biological tissue Gruenbaum posed an anisotropic diffusion boundary value problem in 1989. In order to accommodate anisotropy, he discretized the temporal as well as the spatial domain. The probabilistic interpretation of the diffusion equation is retained; radiation is assumed to travel according to a random walk (of sorts). In this random walk the probabilities with which photons change direction depend upon their previous as well as present location. The forward problem gives boundary value data as a function of the Markov transition probabilities. The inverse problem requiresmore » finding the transition probabilities from boundary value data. Problems in the plane are studied carefully in this thesis. Consistency conditions amongst the data are derived. These conditions have two effects: they prohibit inversion of the forward map but permit smoothing of noisy data. Next, a recursive algorithm which yields a family of solutions to the inverse problem is detailed. This algorithm takes advantage of all independent data and generates a system of highly nonlinear algebraic equations. Pluecker-Grassmann relations are instrumental in simplifying the equations. The algorithm is used to solve the 4 x 4 problem. Finally, the smallest nontrivial problem in three dimensions, the 2 x 2 x 2 problem, is solved.« less

Parental Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Symptoms Are Related to Successful Aging in Offspring of Holocaust Survivors

PubMed Central

Shrira, Amit; Ayalon, Liat; Bensimon, Moshe; Bodner, Ehud; Rosenbloom, Tova; Yadid, Gal

2017-01-01

A fascinating, yet underexplored, question is whether traumatic events experienced by previous generations affect the aging process of subsequent generations. This question is especially relevant for offspring of Holocaust survivors (OHS), who begin to face the aging process. Some preliminary findings point to greater physical dysfunction among middle-aged OHS, yet the mechanisms behind this dysfunction need further clarification. Therefore, the current studies assess aging OHS using the broad-scoped conceptualization of successful aging, while examining whether offspring successful aging relates to parental post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and offspring’s secondary traumatization symptoms. In Study 1, 101 adult offspring (mean age = 62.31) completed measures of parental PTSD, secondary traumatization, as well as successful aging indices – objective (medical conditions, disability and somatic symptoms) and subjective (perceptions of one’s aging). Relative to comparisons and OHS who reported that none of their parents suffered from probable PTSD, OHS who reported that their parents suffered from probable PTSD had lower scores in objective and subjective measures of successful aging. Mediation analyses showed that higher level of secondary traumatization mediated the relationship between parental PTSD and less successful aging in the offspring. Study 2 included 154 dyads of parents (mean age = 81.86) and their adult offspring (mean age = 54.48). Parents reported PTSD symptoms and offspring reported secondary traumatization and completed measures of objective successful aging. Relative to comparisons, OHS whose parent had probable PTSD have aged less successfully. Once again, offspring secondary traumatization mediated the effect. The findings suggest that parental post-traumatic reactions assessed both by offspring (Study 1) and by parents themselves (Study 2) take part in shaping the aging of the subsequent generation via reactions of secondary

Landslide Hazard from Coupled Inherent and Dynamic Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Nudurupati, S. S.

2015-12-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We sought to unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach couples an empirical inherent landslide probability, based on a frequency ratio analysis, with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining subsurface water recharge and surface runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by combining static and dynamic models of stability into a probabilistic measure of geohazard prediction in both space and time. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex in northern Washington State.

Ageing in India: Financial hardship from health expenditures.

PubMed

Lee, Ting-Hsuan J; Saran, Indrani; Rao, Krishna D

2018-04-01

India's rapidly ageing population raises concerns about the burden of health care payments among older individuals who may have both limited income and greater health care needs. Using a nationally representative household survey, we investigate the association between age and financial hardship due to health expenditures. We find that both the probability of experiencing health problems and mean total out-of-pocket health expenditures increase with age. Second, the probability of households experiencing catastrophic health expenditures increases with each additional member aged 60 and above-33% of households with one 60+ member and 38% of households with 2 or more 60+ members experienced catastrophic health expenditures, compared to only 20% in households with all members under the age of 60 years. Lastly, we show that individuals aged 60 and above had a much higher probability of becoming impoverished as a result of health expenditures-the probability of impoverishment for 60+ individuals was 3 percentage points higher than for individuals under the age of 60. Overall, around 4.8% of the older population, representing 4.1 million people, fell into poverty. The results suggest that there is an urgent need for public investments in financial protection programs for older people in India. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Computing under-ice discharge: A proof-of-concept using hydroacoustics and the Probability Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulton, John W.; Henneberg, Mark F.; Mills, Taylor J.; Kohn, Michael S.; Epstein, Brian; Hittle, Elizabeth A.; Damschen, William C.; Laveau, Christopher D.; Lambrecht, Jason M.; Farmer, William H.

2018-07-01

Under-ice discharge is estimated using open-water reference hydrographs; however, the ratings for ice-affected sites are generally qualified as poor. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, conducted a proof-of-concept to develop an alternative method for computing under-ice discharge using hydroacoustics and the Probability Concept. The study site was located south of Minturn, Colorado (CO), USA, and was selected because of (1) its proximity to the existing USGS streamgage 09064600 Eagle River near Minturn, CO, and (2) its ease-of-access to verify discharge using a variety of conventional methods. From late September 2014 to early March 2015, hydraulic conditions varied from open water to under ice. These temporal changes led to variations in water depth and velocity. Hydroacoustics (tethered and uplooking acoustic Doppler current profilers and acoustic Doppler velocimeters) were deployed to measure the vertical-velocity profile at a singularly important vertical of the channel-cross section. Because the velocity profile was non-standard and cannot be characterized using a Power Law or Log Law, velocity data were analyzed using the Probability Concept, which is a probabilistic formulation of the velocity distribution. The Probability Concept-derived discharge was compared to conventional methods including stage-discharge and index-velocity ratings and concurrent field measurements; each is complicated by the dynamics of ice formation, pressure influences on stage measurements, and variations in cross-sectional area due to ice formation. No particular discharge method was assigned as truth. Rather one statistical metric (Kolmogorov-Smirnov; KS), agreement plots, and concurrent measurements provided a measure of comparability between various methods. Regardless of the method employed, comparisons between each method revealed encouraging results depending on the flow conditions and the absence or presence of ice

Computing under-ice discharge: A proof-of-concept using hydroacoustics and the Probability Concept

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fulton, John W.; Henneberg, Mark F.; Mills, Taylor J.; Kohn, Michael S.; Epstein, Brian; Hittle, Elizabeth A.; Damschen, William C.; Laveau, Christopher D.; Lambrecht, Jason M.; Farmer, William H.

2018-01-01

Under-ice discharge is estimated using open-water reference hydrographs; however, the ratings for ice-affected sites are generally qualified as poor. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, conducted a proof-of-concept to develop an alternative method for computing under-ice discharge using hydroacoustics and the Probability Concept.The study site was located south of Minturn, Colorado (CO), USA, and was selected because of (1) its proximity to the existing USGS streamgage 09064600 Eagle River near Minturn, CO, and (2) its ease-of-access to verify discharge using a variety of conventional methods. From late September 2014 to early March 2015, hydraulic conditions varied from open water to under ice. These temporal changes led to variations in water depth and velocity. Hydroacoustics (tethered and uplooking acoustic Doppler current profilers and acoustic Doppler velocimeters) were deployed to measure the vertical-velocity profile at a singularly important vertical of the channel-cross section. Because the velocity profile was non-standard and cannot be characterized using a Power Law or Log Law, velocity data were analyzed using the Probability Concept, which is a probabilistic formulation of the velocity distribution. The Probability Concept-derived discharge was compared to conventional methods including stage-discharge and index-velocity ratings and concurrent field measurements; each is complicated by the dynamics of ice formation, pressure influences on stage measurements, and variations in cross-sectional area due to ice formation.No particular discharge method was assigned as truth. Rather one statistical metric (Kolmogorov-Smirnov; KS), agreement plots, and concurrent measurements provided a measure of comparability between various methods. Regardless of the method employed, comparisons between each method revealed encouraging results depending on the flow conditions and the absence or presence of ice

Self-rated health, health-related behaviours and medical conditions of Maori and non-Maori in advanced age: LiLACS NZ.

PubMed

Teh, Ruth; Kerse, Ngaire; Kepa, Mere; Doughty, Rob N; Moyes, Simon; Wiles, Janine; Wham, Carol; Hayman, Karen; Wilkinson, Tim; Connolly, Martin; Mace, Casey; Dyall, Lorna

2014-07-04

To establish self-rated health, health-related behaviours and health conditions of Maori and non-Maori in advanced age. LiLACS NZ is a longitudinal study. A total of 421 Maori aged 80-90 years and 516 non-Maori aged 85 years living in the Bay of Plenty and Rotorua district were recruited at baseline (2010). Socioeconomic-demographic characteristics and health-related behaviours were established using interviewer administered questionnaire. Self-rated health was obtained from the SF-12. Medical conditions were established from a combination of self-report, review of general practitioner and hospital discharge records, and analyses of fasting blood samples. 61% Maori and 59% non-Maori rated their health from good to excellent. Eleven percent of Maori and 5% of non-Maori smoked; 23% Maori and 47% non-Maori had alcohol on at least 2 occasions per week. Physical activity was higher in Maori than non-Maori (p=0.035) and the relationship was attenuated when adjusted for age. More Maori (49%) than non-Maori (38%) were at high nutrition risk (p=0.005); and more non-Maori (73%) than Maori (59%) were driving (p<0.01). The three most common health conditions were hypertension (83%), eye diseases (58%) and coronary artery disease (44%). The health profile differed by gender and ethnicity. Overall, participants had a median of five health conditions. Self-rated health is high in this sample considering the number of comorbidities. There are differences in health behaviours and health conditions between genders and by ethnicity in advanced age. The significance of health conditions in men and women, Maori and non-Maori in advanced age will be examined longitudinally.

Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

2018-03-01

Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

Comonotonic bounds on the survival probabilities in the Lee-Carter model for mortality projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denuit, Michel; Dhaene, Jan

2007-06-01

In the Lee-Carter framework, future survival probabilities are random variables with an intricate distribution function. In large homogeneous portfolios of life annuities, value-at-risk or conditional tail expectation of the total yearly payout of the company are approximately equal to the corresponding quantities involving random survival probabilities. This paper aims to derive some bounds in the increasing convex (or stop-loss) sense on these random survival probabilities. These bounds are obtained with the help of comonotonic upper and lower bounds on sums of correlated random variables.