[Measure of premature mortality: comparison of deaths before age 65 and expected years of life lost].

PubMed

Lapostolle, A; Lefranc, A; Gremy, I; Spira, A

2008-08-01

For many years in France, premature mortality (i.e., deaths before 65 years old) and avoidable deaths have generally been used to monitor health of the population and help to elaborate policies in this area. This paper aims to examine the utility of another indicator of premature mortality, which makes it possible to take into account the impact of deaths, the expected years of life lost (EYLL). Mortality data for France in the years 2000 to 2002 were obtained from the Centre for Epidemiology of the Medical Causes of Death. Premature mortality was defined as death before 65 years of age. For the calculation of EYLL, the mortality norm chosen was French-life expectancy for the years 2001 to 2003. In order to study the spatial distribution of the indicators above defined, standardized ratios were calculated for each administrative area, taking France as the reference population. Irrespective of the gender and indicator considered, ranking of the causes emphasized three major groups of pathological conditions, which are strongly distinguished from the others: cardiovascular diseases, malignant neoplasm and injuries. The ranking of causes varied considerably according to the indicator used. The spatial representation of standardized ratios of expected years of life lost and deaths before 65 showed a strong North-South trend. The concept of premature mortality is difficult to define and discussions persist on the age limit to use for its quantification. The choice of an indicator strongly depends on the use which one wishes to make. The simple analysis of deaths before 65 years currently used to describe premature mortality in France makes it possible to describe its frequency. The use of a summary measure as EYLL allows to quantify the impact of premature mortality by giving different weights to deaths depending on the age of occurrence. EYLL, thus, seems to be an indicator, which is particularly adapted to decision-making in public health, depending on choices and values one wishes to give preference to.

Reduced mitochondrial SOD displays mortality characteristics reminiscent of natural aging

PubMed Central

Paul, Anirban; Belton, Amy; Nag, Sanjay; Martin, Ian; Grotewiel, Michael S.; Duttaroy, Atanu

2009-01-01

Manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD or SOD2) is a key mitochondrial enzymatic antioxidant. Arguably the most striking phenotype associated with complete loss of SOD2 in flies and mice is shortened life span. To further explore the role of SOD2 in protecting animals from aging and age-associated pathology, we generated a unique collection of Drosophila mutants that progressively reduce SOD2 expression and function. Mitochondrial aconitase activity was substantially reduced in the Sod2 mutants, suggesting that SOD2 normally ensures the functional capacity of mitochondria. Flies with severe reductions in SOD2 expression exhibited accelerated senescence of olfactory behavior as well as precocious neurodegeneration and DNA strand breakage in neurons. Furthermore, life span was progressively shortened and age-dependent mortality was increased in conjunction with reduced SOD2 expression, while initial mortality and developmental viability were unaffected. Interestingly, life span and age-dependent mortality varied exponentially with SOD2 activity, indicating that there might normally be a surplus of this enzyme for protecting animals from premature death. Our data support a model in which disruption of the protective effects of SOD2 on mitochondria manifests as profound changes in behavioral and demographic aging as well as exacerbated age-related pathology in the nervous system. PMID:18078670

Explaining mortality rate plateaus

PubMed Central

Weitz, Joshua S.; Fraser, Hunter B.

2001-01-01

We propose a stochastic model of aging to explain deviations from exponential growth in mortality rates commonly observed in empirical studies. Mortality rate plateaus are explained as a generic consequence of considering death in terms of first passage times for processes undergoing a random walk with drift. Simulations of populations with age-dependent distributions of viabilities agree with a wide array of experimental results. The influence of cohort size is well accounted for by the stochastic nature of the model. PMID:11752476

Intrinsic worker mortality depends on behavioral caste and the queens' presence in a social insect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohlmeier, Philip; Negroni, Matteo Antoine; Kever, Marion; Emmling, Stefanie; Stypa, Heike; Feldmeyer, Barbara; Foitzik, Susanne

2017-04-01

According to the classic life history theory, selection for longevity depends on age-dependant extrinsic mortality and fecundity. In social insects, the common life history trade-off between fecundity and longevity appears to be reversed, as the most fecund individual, the queen, often exceeds workers in lifespan several fold. But does fecundity directly affect intrinsic mortality also in social insect workers? And what is the effect of task on worker mortality? Here, we studied how social environment and behavioral caste affect intrinsic mortality of ant workers. We compared worker survival between queenless and queenright Temnothorax longispinosus nests and demonstrate that workers survive longer under the queens' absence. Temnothorax ant workers fight over reproduction when the queen is absent and dominant workers lay eggs. Worker fertility might therefore increase lifespan, possibly due to a positive physiological link between fecundity and longevity, or better care for fertile workers. In social insects, division of labor among workers is age-dependant with young workers caring for the brood and old ones going out to forage. We therefore expected nurses to survive longer than foragers, which is what we found. Surprisingly, inactive inside workers showed a lower survival than nurses but comparable to that of foragers. The reduced longevity of inactive workers could be due to them being older than the nurses, or due to a positive effect of activity on lifespan. Overall, our study points to behavioral caste-dependent intrinsic mortality rates and a positive association between fertility and longevity not only in queens but also in ant workers.

[Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality over a twenty-two-year period in the city of Barcelona (Spain)].

PubMed

Dalmau-Bueno, Albert; García-Altés, Anna; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Pérez, Katherine; Kunst, Anton E; Borrell, Carme

2010-01-01

To analyze the trend in socioeconomic inequalities in all-cause mortality in Barcelona from 1983 to 2004. We performed an ecological study of trends over 4 cross-sections (1983-1988, 1989-1994, 1995-1999 and 2000-2004), with the basic health area (BHA) as the unit of analysis. The study population consisted of men and women aged 20 years or more living in Barcelona. The information sources were the mortality registry, the municipal census and the census of inhabitants and dwellings. The age- and sex-specific mortality rate (ASMR) for all causes was used as the dependent variable. As the independent variable, a composite index of socioeconomic deprivation of the BHA was calculated; BHAs were grouped in quartiles according to the values on the index. Poisson models were adjusted to estimate the relative risk of mortality from all causes in the 4 groups of BHA, stratified by age groups and sex. In all the study periods, inequalities in mortality were found, depending on the BHA of residence, both for men and for women: the ASMR of the most deprived BHAs were greater than those of less deprived BHA, and were greater among men than among women. Likewise, relative risks in the youngest age groups were higher than in the oldest age groups. However, from the second to fourth study periods, inequalities decreased in absolute and relative terms, especially among men. Inequalities in mortality persist in BHA in Barcelona but have decreased over the last 2 decades. Public policies should take this information into account when tackling inequalities among BHA. Copyright 2009 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Human actuarial aging increases faster when back ground death rates are lower: a consequence of differential heterogeneity?

PubMed Central

Hawkes, Kristen; Smith, Ken R.; Blevins, James K.

2014-01-01

Many analyses of human populations have found that age-specific mortality rates increase faster across most of adulthood when overall mortality levels decline. This contradicts the relationship often expected from Williams′ classic hypothesis about the effects of natural selection on the evolution of senescence. More likely, much of the within-species difference in actuarial aging is not due to variation in senescence, but to the strength of filters on the heterogeneity of frailty in older survivors. A challenge to this differential frailty hypothesis was recently posed by an analysis of life tables from historical European populations and traditional societies that reported variation in actuarial aging consistent with Williams′ hypothesis after all. To investigate the challenge, we reconsidered those cases and aging measures. Here we show that the discrepancy depends on Ricklefs′ aging rate measure,ω, which decreases as mortality levels drop because it is an index of mortality level itself, not the rate of increase in mortality with age. We also show unappreciated correspondence among the parameters of Gompertz–Makeham and Weibull survival models. Finally, we compare the relationships among mortality parameters of the traditional societies and the historical series, providing further suggestive evidence that differential heterogeneity has strong effects on actuarial aging. PMID:22220868

Mortality from treatable illnesses in marginally housed adults: a prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Jones, Andrea A; Vila-Rodriguez, Fidel; Leonova, Olga; Langheimer, Verena; Lang, Donna J; Barr, Alasdair M; Procyshyn, Ric M; Smith, Geoffrey N; Schultz, Krista; Buchanan, Tari; Krausz, Michael; Montaner, Julio S; MacEwan, G William; Rauscher, Alexander; Panenka, William J; Thornton, Allen E; Honer, William G

2015-01-01

Objectives Socially disadvantaged people experience greater risk for illnesses that may contribute to premature death. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of treatable illnesses on mortality among adults living in precarious housing. Design A prospective cohort based in a community sample. Setting A socially disadvantaged neighbourhood in Vancouver, Canada. Participants Adults (N=371) living in single room occupancy hotels or recruited from the Downtown Community Court and followed for median 3.8 years. Main outcome measures Participants were assessed for physical and mental illnesses for which treatment is currently available. We compared cohort mortality rates with 2009 Canadian rates. Left-truncated Cox proportional hazards modelling with age as the time scale was used to assess risk factors for earlier mortality. Results During 1269 person-years of observation, 31/371 (8%) of participants died. Compared with age-matched and sex-matched Canadians, the standardised mortality ratio was 8.29 (95% CI 5.83 to 11.79). Compared with those that had cleared the virus, active hepatitis C infection was a significant predictor for hepatic fibrosis adjusting for alcohol dependence and age (OR=2.96, CI 1.37 to 7.08). Among participants <55 years of age, psychosis (HR=8.12, CI 1.55 to 42.47) and hepatic fibrosis (HR=13.01, CI 3.56 to 47.57) were associated with earlier mortality. Treatment rates for these illnesses were low (psychosis: 32%, hepatitis C virus: 0%) compared with other common disorders (HIV: 57%, opioid dependence: 61%) in this population. Conclusions Hepatic fibrosis and psychosis are associated with increased mortality in people living in marginal conditions. Timely diagnosis and intervention could reduce the high mortality in marginalised inner city populations. PMID:26297373

Differences in mortality between groups of older migrants and older non-migrants in Belgium, 2001-09.

PubMed

Reus-Pons, Matias; Vandenheede, Hadewijch; Janssen, Fanny; Kibele, Eva U B

2016-12-01

European societies are rapidly ageing and becoming multicultural. We studied differences in overall and cause-specific mortality between migrants and non-migrants in Belgium specifically focusing on the older population. We performed a mortality follow-up until 2009 of the population aged 50 and over living in Flanders and the Brussels-Capital Region by linking the 2001 census data with the population and mortality registers. Overall mortality differences were analysed via directly age-standardized mortality rates. Cause-specific mortality differences between non-migrants and various western and non-western migrant groups were analysed using Poisson regression models, controlling for age (model 1) and additionally controlling for socio-economic status and urban typology (model 2). At older ages, most migrants had an overall mortality advantage relative to non-migrants, regardless of a lower socio-economic status. Specific migrant groups (e.g. Turkish migrants, French and eastern European male migrants and German female migrants) had an overall mortality disadvantage, which was, at least partially, attributable to a lower socio-economic status. Despite the general overall mortality advantage, migrants experienced higher mortality from infectious diseases, diabetes-related causes, respiratory diseases (western migrants), cardiovascular diseases (non-western female migrants) and lung cancer (western female migrants). Mortality differences between older migrants and non-migrants depend on cause of death, age, sex, migrant origin and socio-economic status. These differences can be related to lifestyle, social networks and health care use. Policies aimed at reducing mortality inequalities between older migrants and non-migrants should address the specific health needs of the various migrant groups, as well as socio-economic disparities. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Comparative analysis of old-age mortality estimations in Africa.

PubMed

Bendavid, Eran; Seligman, Benjamin; Kubo, Jessica

2011-01-01

Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data. Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals ((5)q(x)). We then compare our (5)q(x) estimates to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old. We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.64% deceased). WHO and UNPD mortality models match our estimates closely up to age 60 (mean difference in probability of death -1.1%). However, mortality probabilities above age 60 are lower using our estimations than either WHO or UNPD. The mean difference between our sample and the WHO is 5.9% (95% CI 3.8-7.9%) and between our sample is UNPD is 13.5% (95% CI 11.6-15.5%). Regardless of the comparator, the difference in mortality estimations rises monotonically above age 60. Mortality estimations above age 60 in ten African countries exhibit large variations depending on the method of estimation. The observed patterns suggest the possibility that survival in some African countries among adults older than age 60 is better than previously thought. Improving the quality and coverage of vital information in developing countries will become increasingly important with future reductions in mortality.

Agricultural Chemical Use and White Male Cancer Mortality in Selected Rural Farm Counties.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stokes, C. Shannon; Brace, Kathy D.

A study of 1,497 nonmetropolitan counties was conducted to test the possible contribution of agricultural chemical use to cancer mortality rates in rural counties. The dependent variables were 20-year age-adjusted mortality rates for 1950 to 1969 for five categories of cancer: genital, urinary, lymphatic, respiratory, and digestive. Because sex…

Alcohol Dependence, Mortality, and Chronic Health Conditions in a Rural Population in Korea

PubMed Central

Noh, Samuel; Shin, Jongho; Ahn, Joung-Sook; Kim, Tae-Hui

2008-01-01

To determine the effects of excessive drinking and alcohol dependency on mortality and chronic health problems in a rural community in South Korea, this study represents a nested case-control study. In 1998, we conducted the Alcohol Dependence Survey (ADS), a population survey of a village in Korea. To measure the effects of alcohol on chronic health conditions and mortality over time, in 2004, we identified 290 adults from the ADS sample (N=1,058) for follow-up. Of those selected, 145 were adults who had alcohol problems, either alcohol dependence as assessed in the ADS by the Severity of Alcohol Dependence Questionnaire (N=59), or excessive drinking without dependency (N=86). Further 145 nondrinkers were identified, matching those with alcohol problems in age and sex. We revisited the village in 2004 and completed personal interviews with them. In multivariate logistic regressions, the rates of mortality and morbidity of chronic health conditions were three times greater for alcohol dependents compared with the rate for nondrinkers. Importantly, however, excessive drinking without dependency was not associated with the rates of either mortality or morbidity. Future investigations would benefit by attending more specifically to measures for alcohol dependence as well as measures for alcohol consumption. PMID:18303191

Validation of the FRAIL scale in Mexican elderly: results from the Mexican Health and Aging Study.

PubMed

Díaz de León González, Enrique; Gutiérrez Hermosillo, Hugo; Martinez Beltran, Jesus Avilio; Chavez, Juan Humberto Medina; Palacios Corona, Rebeca; Salinas Garza, Deborah Patricia; Rodriguez Quintanilla, Karina Alejandra

2016-10-01

The aging population in Latin America is characterized by not optimal conditions for good health, experiencing high burden of comorbidity, which contribute to increase the frequency of frailty; thus, identification should be a priority, to classify patients at high risk to develop its negative consequences. The objective of this analysis was to validate the FRAIL instrument to measure frailty in Mexican elderly population, from the database of the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS). Prospective, population study in Mexico, that included subjects of 60 years and older who were evaluated for the variables of frailty during the year 2001 (first wave of the study). Frailty was measured with the five-item FRAIL scale (fatigue, resistance, ambulation, illnesses, and weight loss). The robust, pre-frail or intermediate, and the frail group were considered when they had zero, one, and at least two components, respectively. Mortality, hospitalizations, falls, and functional dependency were evaluated during 2003 (second wave of the study). Relative risk was calculated for each complications, as well as hazard ratio (for mortality) through Cox regression model and odds ratio with logistic regression (for the rest of the outcomes), adjusted for covariates. The state of frailty was independently associated with mortality, hospitalizations, functional dependency, and falls. The pre-frailty state was only independently associated with hospitalizations, functional dependency, and falls. Frailty measured through the FRAIL scale, is associated with an increase in the rate of mortality, hospitalizations, dependency in activities of daily life, and falls.

Natural course of care dependency in residents of long-term care facilities: prospective follow-up study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Insight in the natural course of care dependency of vulnerable older persons in long-term care facilities (LTCF) is essential to organize and optimize individual tailored care. We examined changes in care dependency in LTCF residents over two 6-month periods, explored the possible predictive factors of change and the effect of care dependency on mortality. Methods A prospective follow-up study in 21 Dutch long-term care facilities. 890 LTCF residents, median age 84 (Interquartile range 79–88) years participated. At baseline, 6 and 12 months, care dependency was assessed by the nursing staff with the Care Dependency Scale (CDS), range 15–75 points. Since the median CDS score differed between men and women (47.5 vs. 43.0, P = 0.013), CDS groups (low, middle and high) were based on gender-specific 33% of CDS scores at baseline and 6 months. Results At baseline, the CDS groups differed in median length of stay on the ward, urine incontinence and dementia (all P < 0.001); participants in the low CDS group stayed longer, had more frequent urine incontinence and more dementia. They had also the highest mortality rate (log rank 32.2; df = 2; P for trend <0.001). Per point lower in CDS score, the mortality risk increased with 2% (95% CI 1%-3%). Adjustment for age, gender, cranberry use, LTCF, length of stay, comorbidity and dementia showed similar results. A one point decrease in CDS score between 0 and 6 months was related to an increased mortality risk of 4% (95% CI 3%-6%). At the 6-month follow-up, 10% improved to a higher CDS group, 65% were in the same, and 25% had deteriorated to a lower CDS group; a similar pattern emerged at 12-month follow-up. Gender, age, urine incontinence, dementia, cancer and baseline care dependency status, predicted an increase in care dependency over time. Conclusion The majority of residents were stable in their care dependency status over two subsequent 6-month periods. Highly care dependent residents showed an increased mortality risk. Awareness of the natural course of care dependency is essential to residents and their formal and informal caregivers when considering therapeutic and end-of-life care options. PMID:24884563

Natural course of care dependency in residents of long-term care facilities: prospective follow-up study.

PubMed

Caljouw, Monique A A; Cools, Herman J M; Gussekloo, Jacobijn

2014-05-22

Insight in the natural course of care dependency of vulnerable older persons in long-term care facilities (LTCF) is essential to organize and optimize individual tailored care. We examined changes in care dependency in LTCF residents over two 6-month periods, explored the possible predictive factors of change and the effect of care dependency on mortality. A prospective follow-up study in 21 Dutch long-term care facilities. 890 LTCF residents, median age 84 (Interquartile range 79-88) years participated. At baseline, 6 and 12 months, care dependency was assessed by the nursing staff with the Care Dependency Scale (CDS), range 15-75 points. Since the median CDS score differed between men and women (47.5 vs. 43.0, P = 0.013), CDS groups (low, middle and high) were based on gender-specific 33% of CDS scores at baseline and 6 months. At baseline, the CDS groups differed in median length of stay on the ward, urine incontinence and dementia (all P < 0.001); participants in the low CDS group stayed longer, had more frequent urine incontinence and more dementia. They had also the highest mortality rate (log rank 32.2; df = 2; P for trend <0.001). Per point lower in CDS score, the mortality risk increased with 2% (95% CI 1%-3%). Adjustment for age, gender, cranberry use, LTCF, length of stay, comorbidity and dementia showed similar results. A one point decrease in CDS score between 0 and 6 months was related to an increased mortality risk of 4% (95% CI 3%-6%).At the 6-month follow-up, 10% improved to a higher CDS group, 65% were in the same, and 25% had deteriorated to a lower CDS group; a similar pattern emerged at 12-month follow-up. Gender, age, urine incontinence, dementia, cancer and baseline care dependency status, predicted an increase in care dependency over time. The majority of residents were stable in their care dependency status over two subsequent 6-month periods. Highly care dependent residents showed an increased mortality risk. Awareness of the natural course of care dependency is essential to residents and their formal and informal caregivers when considering therapeutic and end-of-life care options.

Marital history from age 15 to 40 years and subsequent 10-year mortality: a longitudinal study of Danish males born in 1953.

PubMed

Lund, Rikke; Holstein, Bjørn Evald; Osler, Merete

2004-04-01

The aims of the present study are to analyse the association between marital status at age 24, 29, 34, and 39 years and subsequent mortality in a cohort of men born in 1953 (sensitive period); to study the impact of number of years married, number of years divorced/widowed, and number of marital break-ups on mortality (cumulative effect), and to examine whether these effects were independent of marital status at age 39 (proximity effect). Prospective birth cohort study with follow-up of mortality from 1992 to 2002. Participants were 10891 men born within the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark. Marital status in 1992 as well as start and termination of all previous marital status events from 1968 to 1992 were retrieved from the Danish Civil Registration System. Were hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause mortality from age 40 to 49 years. We found a strong protective effect of being married compared with never being married or divorced/widowed at every age. The association increased in strength with increasing age. Number of years divorced was associated with increased mortality risk in a dose-dependent manner at age 34 and 39 years. One or more marital break-ups was associated with higher mortality, whereas increasing number of years married was associated with lower mortality. Inclusion of current marital status attenuated the strength of the associations but most of them remained statistically significant. Marital status and cumulated marital periods, especially cumulated periods divorced/widowed are strong independent predictors of mortality among younger males.

Malnutrition, functional ability and mortality among older people aged ⩾ 60 years: a 7-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Naseer, M; Forssell, H; Fagerström, C

2016-03-01

This study aimed to assess the association between risk of malnutrition and 7-year mortality, controlling for functional ability, socio-demographics, lifestyle behavior and diseases, and investigate the interaction between risk of malnutrition and functional ability on the risk of mortality. A longitudinal study on home-living and special-housing residents aged ⩾ 60 years was conducted. Of 2312 randomly invited participants, 1402 responded and 1203 provided information on both nutritional status and functional ability. The risk of malnutrition was estimated by the occurrence of at least one anthropometric measure (BMI, MAC and CC) below cut-off in addition to the presence of at least one subjective measure (decreased food intake, weight loss and eating difficulty). At baseline, 8.6% of subjects were at risk of malnutrition and during the 7-year follow-up 34.6% subjects died. The risk of malnutrition was independently associated with 7-year mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 1.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28-2.65). Additional independent predictors were dementia (HR 2.76, 95% CI 1.85-4.10), activity of daily living (ADL) dependence (HR 2.08, 95% CI 1.62-2.67), heart disease (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.16-1.78), diabetes (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.03-1.93) and older age (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.07-1.10). Moreover, the risk of malnutrition and ADL dependence in combination predicted the poorest survival rate (18.7%, P<0.001). The risk of malnutrition significantly increases the risk of mortality in older people. Moreover, risk of malnutrition and ADL dependence together explain a significantly poorer survival rate; however, the importance of this interaction decreased in the multivariable model and risk of malnutrition and ADL dependence independently explained a significant risk of mortality.

Favorable mortality profile of naltrexone implants for opiate addiction.

PubMed

Reece, Albert Stuart

2010-01-01

Several reports express concern at the mortality associated with the use of oral naltrexone for opiate dependency. Registry controlled follow-up of patients treated with naltrexone implant and buprenorphine was performed. In the study, 255 naltrexone implant patients were followed for a mean (+/- standard deviation) of 5.22 +/- 1.87 years and 2,518 buprenorphine patients were followed for a mean (+/- standard deviation) of 3.19 +/- 1.61 years, accruing 1,332.22 and 8,030.02 patient-years of follow-up, respectively. The crude mortality rates were 3.00 and 5.35 per 1,000 patient-years, respectively, and the age standardized mortality rate ratio for naltrexone compared to buprenorphine was 0.676 (95% confidence interval = 0.014 to 1.338). Most sex, treatment group, and age comparisons significantly favored the naltrexone implant group. Mortality rates were shown to be comparable to, and intermediate between, published mortality rates of an age-standardized methadone treated cohort and the Australian population. These data suggest that the mortality rate from naltrexone implant is comparable to that of buprenorphine, methadone, and the Australian population.

Association of cholesterol, LDL, HDL, cholesterol/ HDL and triglyceride with all-cause mortality in life insurance applicants.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

2009-01-01

Determine the relationship between various lipid tests and all-cause mortality in life insurance applicants stratified by age and sex. By use of the Social Security Death Master File, mortality was determined in 1,488,572 life insurance applicants from whom blood samples were submitted to Clinical Reference Laboratory. There were 41,020 deaths observed in this healthy adult population during a median follow-up of 12 years (range 10 to 14 years). Results were stratified by 4 age-sex subpopulations: females, ages 20 to 59 or 60+; and males, ages 20 to 59 or 60+. Those with serum albumin < 3.6 mg/dL or fructosamine > or = 2.1 mmol/L were excluded. The middle 50% of lipid values specific to each of these 4 age-sex subpopulations was used as the reference band. The mortality rates in bands representing other percentiles of lipid values were compared with the mortality rate in the reference band within each age-sex subpopulation. In contrast to some published findings from general populations, lipid test results are only moderately predictive of all-cause mortality risk in a life insurance applicant population and that risk is dependent on age and sex. At ages below 60, HDL values are associated with a "J" shaped mortality curve and at ages 60+, total cholesterol is associated with a "U" shaped curve. The total cholesterol/HDL ratio may serve as a useful single measure to predict mortality risk, but only if stratified by age and sex, and only if high HDL values at younger ages and lower total cholesterol values at ages 60+ are recognized as being associated with increased risk as well. Using LDL or non-HDL cholesterol instead of total cholesterol does not improve mortality risk discrimination; neither does using total cholesterol or triglyceride values in addition to the total cholesterol/HDL ratio. The total cholesterol/HDL ratio is the best single measure of all-cause mortality risk among the various lipid tests but is useful only if viewed on an age- and sex-specific basis and is only a modest risk predictor.

Usual gait speed independently predicts mortality in very old people: a population-based study.

PubMed

Toots, Annika; Rosendahl, Erik; Lundin-Olsson, Lillemor; Nordström, Peter; Gustafson, Yngve; Littbrand, Håkan

2013-07-01

In older people, usual gait speed has been shown to independently predict mortality; however, less is known about whether usual gait speed is as informative in very old populations, in which prevalence of multimorbidity and disability is high. The aim of this study was to investigate if usual gait speed can independently predict all-cause mortality in very old people, and whether the prediction is influenced by dementia disorder, dependency in activities of daily living (ADL), or use of walking aids in the gait speed test. Prospective cohort study. Population-based study in northern Sweden and Finland (the Umeå 85+/GERDA Study). A total of 772 participants with a mean age of 89.6 years, 70% women, 33% with dementia disorders, 54% with ADL dependency, and 39% living in residential care facilities. Usual gait speed assessed over 2.4 meters and mortality followed-up for 5 years. The mean ± SD gait speed was 0.52 ± 0.21 m/s for the 620 (80%) participants able to complete the gait speed test. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses adjusted for potential confounders were performed. Compared with the fastest gait speed group (≥ 0.64 m/s), the hazard ratio for mortality was for the following groups: unable = 2.27 (P < .001), ≤ 0.36 m/s = 1.97 (P = .001), 0.37 to 0.49 m/s = 1.99 (P < .001), 0.50 to 0.63 m/s = 1.11 (P = .604). No interaction effects were found between gait speed and age, sex, dementia disorder, dependency in ADLs, or use of walking aids. Among people aged 85 or older, including people dependent in ADLs and with dementia disorders, usual gait speed was an independent predictor of 5-year all-cause mortality. Inability to complete the gait test or gait speeds slower than 0.5 m/s appears to be associated with higher mortality risk. Gait speed might be a useful clinical indicator of health status among very old people. Copyright © 2013 American Medical Directors Association, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of the FRAIL scale in Mexican elderly: results from the Mexican Health and Aging Study

PubMed Central

Díaz de León González, Enrique; Gutiérrez Hermosillo, Hugo; Martinez Beltran, Jesus Avilio; Medina Chavez, Juan Humberto; Palacios Corona, Rebeca; Salinas Garza, Deborah Patricia; Rodriguez Quintanilla, Karina Alejandra

2016-01-01

Background The aging population in Latin America is characterized by not optimal conditions for good health, experiencing high burden of comorbidity, which contribute to increase the frequency of frailty; thus, identification should be a priority, to classify patients at high risk to develop its negative consequences. Aim The objective of this analysis was to validate the FRAIL instrument to measure frailty in Mexican elderly population, from the database of the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS). Materials and methods Prospective, population study in Mexico, that included subjects of 60 years and older who were evaluated for the variables of frailty during the year 2001 (first wave of the study). Frailty was measured with the five-item FRAIL scale (fatigue, resistance, ambulation, illnesses, and weight loss). The robust, pre-frail or intermediate, and the frail group were considered when they had zero, one, and at least two components, respectively. Mortality, hospitalizations, falls, and functional dependency were evaluated during 2003 (second wave of the study). Relative risk was calculated for each complications, as well as hazard ratio (for mortality) through Cox regression model and odds ratio with logistic regression (for the rest of the outcomes), adjusted for covariates. Results The state of frailty was independently associated with mortality, hospitalizations, functional dependency, and falls. The pre-frailty state was only independently associated with hospitalizations, functional dependency, and falls. Conclusions Frailty measured through the FRAIL scale, is associated with an increase in the rate of mortality, hospitalizations, dependency in activities of daily life, and falls. PMID:26646253

Physical activity, function, and longevity among the very old.

PubMed

Stessman, Jochanan; Hammerman-Rozenberg, Robert; Cohen, Aaron; Ein-Mor, Eliana; Jacobs, Jeremy M

2009-09-14

Recommendations encouraging physical activity (PA) set no upper age limit, yet evidence supporting the benefits of PA among the very old is sparse. We examined the effects of continuing, increasing, or decreasing PA levels on survival, function, and health status among the very old. Mortality data from ages 70 to 88 years and health, comorbidity, and functional status at ages 70, 78, and 85 years were assessed through the Jerusalem Longitudinal Cohort Study (1990-2008). A representative sample of 1861 people born in 1920 and 1921 enrolled in this prospective study, resulting in 17 109 person-years of follow-up for all-cause mortality. Among physically active vs sedentary participants, respectively, at age 70, the 8-year mortality was 15.2% vs 27.2% (P < .001); at age 78, the 8-year mortality was 26.1% vs 40.8% (P <.001); and at age 85 years, the 3-year mortality was 6.8% vs 24.4% (P < .001). In Cox proportional-hazards models adjusting for mortality risk factors, lower mortality was associated with PA level at ages 70 (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.96), 78 (0.69; 0.48-0.98), and 85 (0.42; 0.25-0.68). A significant survival benefit was associated with initiating PA between ages 70 and 78 years (P = .04) and ages 78 and 85 years (P < .001). Participation in higher levels of PA, compared with being sedentary, did not show a dose-dependent association with mortality. The PA level at age 78 was associated with remaining independent while performing activities of daily living at age 85 (odds ratio, 1.92; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-3.33). Among the very old, not only continuing but also initiating PA was associated with better survival and function. This finding supports the encouragement of PA into advanced old age.

Dietary restriction of rodents decreases aging rate without affecting initial mortality rate -- a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Simons, Mirre J P; Koch, Wouter; Verhulst, Simon

2013-06-01

Dietary restriction (DR) extends lifespan in multiple species from various taxa. This effect can arise via two distinct but not mutually exclusive ways: a change in aging rate and/or vulnerability to the aging process (i.e. initial mortality rate). When DR affects vulnerability, this lowers mortality instantly, whereas a change in aging rate will gradually lower mortality risk over time. Unraveling how DR extends lifespan is of interest because it may guide toward understanding the mechanism(s) mediating lifespan extension and also has practical implications for the application of DR. We reanalyzed published survival data from 82 pairs of survival curves from DR experiments in rats and mice by fitting Gompertz and also Gompertz-Makeham models. The addition of the Makeham parameter has been reported to improve the estimation of Gompertz parameters. Both models separate initial mortality rate (vulnerability) from an age-dependent increase in mortality (aging rate). We subjected the obtained Gompertz parameters to a meta-analysis. We find that DR reduced aging rate without affecting vulnerability. The latter contrasts with the conclusion of a recent analysis of a largely overlapping data set, and we show how the earlier finding is due to a statistical artifact. Our analysis indicates that the biology underlying the life-extending effect of DR in rodents likely involves attenuated accumulation of damage, which contrasts with the acute effect of DR on mortality reported for Drosophila. Moreover, our findings show that the often-reported correlation between aging rate and vulnerability does not constrain changing aging rate without affecting vulnerability simultaneously. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and the Anatomical Society.

Network model of human aging: Frailty limits and information measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, Spencer G.; Mitnitski, Arnold B.; Rockwood, Kenneth; Rutenberg, Andrew D.

2016-11-01

Aging is associated with the accumulation of damage throughout a persons life. Individual health can be assessed by the Frailty Index (FI). The FI is calculated simply as the proportion f of accumulated age-related deficits relative to the total, leading to a theoretical maximum of f ≤1 . Observational studies have generally reported a much more stringent bound, with f ≤fmax<1 . The value of fmax in observational studies appears to be nonuniversal, but fmax≈0.7 is often reported. A previously developed network model of individual aging was unable to recover fmax<1 while retaining the other observed phenomenology of increasing f and mortality rates with age. We have developed a computationally accelerated network model that also allows us to tune the scale-free network exponent α . The network exponent α significantly affects the growth of mortality rates with age. However, we are only able to recover fmax by also introducing a deficit sensitivity parameter 1 -q , which is equivalent to a false-negative rate q . Our value of q =0.3 is comparable to finite sensitivities of age-related deficits with respect to mortality that are often reported in the literature. In light of nonzero q , we use mutual information I to provide a nonparametric measure of the predictive value of the FI with respect to individual mortality. We find that I is only modestly degraded by q <1 , and this degradation is mitigated when increasing number of deficits are included in the FI. We also find that the information spectrum, i.e., the mutual information of individual deficits versus connectivity, has an approximately power-law dependence that depends on the network exponent α . Mutual information I is therefore a useful tool for characterizing the network topology of aging populations.

Age-dependent interaction of apolipoprotein E gene with eastern birthplace in Finland affects severity of coronary atherosclerosis and risk of fatal myocardial infarction--Helsinki Sudden Death Study.

PubMed

Tyynelä, Petri; Goebeler, Sirkka; Ilveskoski, Erkki; Mikkelsson, Jussi; Perola, Markus; Lehtimäki, Terho; Karhunen, Pekka J

2013-05-01

Mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) has been constantly higher in eastern late settlement regions compared to western early settlements in Finland, unrelated to classical risk factors. In line with this, eastern birthplace was an age-dependent predictor of severe coronary atherosclerosis and pre-hospital sudden coronary death among male residents of Helsinki. We investigated a possible interaction of apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene with birthplace on the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary atherosclerosis. APOE genotypes were analyzed in the Helsinki Sudden Death Study series comprising out-of-hospital deaths among males aged 33-70 years (n = 577), who were born in high (east, n = 273) or low (west, n = 304) CHD mortality area. Eastern-born men ≤ 55 years carried 30% more often (P = 0.017) and older men 40% less often (P = 0.022) the APOE ϵ4 allele compared to western-born men (P = 0.003 for birthplace-by-age interaction). In multivariate analysis, the ϵ4 allele associated with the risk of out-of-hospital MI (odds ratio 2.58; 95% CI 1.20-5.55; P = 0.016) only in eastern-born men and with advanced atherosclerosis in both regions of origin, respectively. Birthplace-bound risk of CHD was age-dependently modified by APOE ϵ4 allele, suggesting genetic differences in CHD susceptibility between early and late settlement regions in Finland and providing one explanation for the eastern high mortality.

Heterogeneity in the Strehler-Mildvan general theory of mortality and aging.

PubMed

Zheng, Hui; Yang, Yang; Land, Kenneth C

2011-02-01

This study examines and further develops the classic Strehler-Mildvan (SM) general theory of mortality and aging. Three predictions from the SM theory are tested by examining the age dependence of mortality patterns for 42 countries (including developed and developing countries) over the period 1955-2003. By applying finite mixture regression models, principal component analysis, and random-effects panel regression models, we find that (1) the negative correlation between the initial adulthood mortality rate and the rate of increase in mortality with age derived in the SM theory exists but is not constant; (2) within the SM framework, the implied age of expected zero vitality (expected maximum survival age) also is variable over time; (3) longevity trajectories are not homogeneous among the countries; (4) Central American and Southeast Asian countries have higher expected age of zero vitality than other countries in spite of relatively disadvantageous national ecological systems; (5) within the group of Central American and Southeast Asian countries, a more disadvantageous national ecological system is associated with a higher expected age of zero vitality; and (6) larger agricultural and food productivities, higher labor participation rates, higher percentages of population living in urban areas, and larger GDP per capita and GDP per unit of energy use are important beneficial national ecological system factors that can promote survival. These findings indicate that the SM theory needs to be generalized to incorporate heterogeneity among human populations.

A SIMPLE FRAILTY QUESTIONNAIRE (FRAIL) PREDICTS OUTCOMES IN MIDDLE AGED AFRICAN AMERICANS

PubMed Central

MORLEY, J.E.; MALMSTROM, T.K.; MILLER, D.K.

2015-01-01

Objective To validate the FRAIL scale. Design Longitudinal study. Setting Community. Participants Representative sample of African Americans age 49 to 65 years at onset of study. Measurements The 5-item FRAIL scale (Fatigue, Resistance, Ambulation, Illnesses, & Loss of Weight), at baseline and activities of daily living (ADLs), instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), mortality, short physical performance battery (SPPB), gait speed, one-leg stand, grip strength and injurious falls at baseline and 9 years. Blood tests for CRP, SIL6R, STNFR1, STNFR2 and 25 (OH) vitamin D at baseline. Results Cross-sectionally the FRAIL scale correlated significantly with IADL difficulties, SPPB, grip strength and one-leg stand among participants with no baseline ADL difficulties (N=703) and those outcomes plus gait speed in those with no baseline ADL dependencies (N=883). TNFR1 was increased in pre-frail and frail subjects and CRP in some subgroups. Longitudinally (N=423 with no baseline ADL difficulties or N=528 with no baseline ADL dependencies), and adjusted for the baseline value for each outcome, being pre-frail at baseline significantly predicted future ADL difficulties, worse one-leg stand scores, and mortality in both groups, plus IADL difficulties in the dependence-excluded group. Being frail at baseline significantly predicted future ADL difficulties, IADL difficulties, and mortality in both groups, plus worse SPPB in the dependence-excluded group. Conclusion This study has validated the FRAIL scale in a late middle-aged African American population. This simple 5-question scale is an excellent screening test for clinicians to identify frail persons at risk of developing disability as well as decline in health functioning and mortality. PMID:22836700

Seasonal variations of all-cause and cause-specific mortality by age, gender, and socioeconomic condition in urban and rural areas of Bangladesh.

PubMed

Burkart, Katrin; Khan, Mobarak H; Krämer, Alexander; Breitner, Susanne; Schneider, Alexandra; Endlicher, Wilfried R

2011-08-04

Mortality exhibits seasonal variations, which to a certain extent can be considered as mid-to long-term influences of meteorological conditions. In addition to atmospheric effects, the seasonal pattern of mortality is shaped by non-atmospheric determinants such as environmental conditions or socioeconomic status. Understanding the influence of season and other factors is essential when seeking to implement effective public health measures. The pressures of climate change make an understanding of the interdependencies between season, climate and health especially important. This study investigated daily death counts collected within the Sample Vital Registration System (VSRS) established by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The sample was stratified by location (urban vs. rural), gender and socioeconomic status. Furthermore, seasonality was analyzed for all-cause mortality, and several cause-specific mortalities. Daily deviation from average mortality was calculated and seasonal fluctuations were elaborated using non parametric spline smoothing. A seasonality index for each year of life was calculated in order to assess the age-dependency of seasonal effects. We found distinctive seasonal variations of mortality with generally higher levels during the cold season. To some extent, a rudimentary secondary summer maximum could be observed. The degree and shape of seasonality changed with the cause of death as well as with location, gender, and SES and was strongly age-dependent. Urban areas were seen to be facing an increased summer mortality peak, particularly in terms of cardiovascular mortality. Generally, children and the elderly faced stronger seasonal effects than youths and young adults. This study clearly demonstrated the complex and dynamic nature of seasonal impacts on mortality. The modifying effect of spatial and population characteristics were highlighted. While tropical regions have been, and still are, associated with a marked excess of mortality in summer, only a weakly pronounced secondary summer peak could be observed for Bangladesh, possibly due to the reduced incidence of diarrhoea-related fatalities. These findings suggest that Bangladesh is undergoing an epidemiological transition from summer to winter excess mortality, as a consequence of changes in socioeconomic conditions and health care provision.

Breast cancer mortality and associated factors in São Paulo State, Brazil: an ecological analysis.

PubMed

Diniz, Carmen Simone Grilo; Pellini, Alessandra Cristina Guedes; Ribeiro, Adeylson Guimarães; Tedardi, Marcello Vannucci; Miranda, Marina Jorge de; Touso, Michelle Mosna; Baquero, Oswaldo Santos; Santos, Patrícia Carlos Dos; Chiaravalloti-Neto, Francisco

2017-08-23

Identify the factors associated with the age-standardised breast cancer mortality rate in the municipalities of State of São Paulo (SSP), Brazil, in the period from 2006 to 2012. Ecological study of the breast cancer mortality rate standardised by age, as the dependent variable, having each of the 645 municipalities in the SSP as the unit of analysis. The female resident population aged 15 years or older, by age group and municipality, in 2009 (mid-term), obtained from public dataset (Informatics Department of the Unified Health System). Women 15 years or older who died of breast cancer in the SSP were selected for the calculation of the breast cancer mortality rate, according to the municipality and age group, from 2006 to 2012. Mortality rates for each municipality calculated by the direct standardisation method, using the age structure of the population of SSP in 2009 as the standard. In the final linear regression model, breast cancer mortality, in the municipal level, was directly associated with rates of nulliparity (p<0.0001), mammography (p<0.0001) and private healthcare (p=0.006). The findings that mammography ratio was associated, in the municipal level, with increased mortality add to the evidence of a probable overestimation of benefits and underestimation of risks associated with this form of screening. The same paradoxical trend of increased mortality with screening was found in recent individual-level studies, indicating the need to expand informed choice for patients, primary prevention actions and individualised screening. Additional studies should be conducted to explore if there is a causality link in this association. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Breast cancer mortality and associated factors in São Paulo State, Brazil: an ecological analysis

PubMed Central

Diniz, Carmen Simone Grilo; Pellini, Alessandra Cristina Guedes; Ribeiro, Adeylson Guimarães; Tedardi, Marcello Vannucci; de Miranda, Marina Jorge; Touso, Michelle Mosna; Baquero, Oswaldo Santos; dos Santos, Patrícia Carlos

2017-01-01

Objective Identify the factors associated with the age-standardised breast cancer mortality rate in the municipalities of State of São Paulo (SSP), Brazil, in the period from 2006 to 2012. Design Ecological study of the breast cancer mortality rate standardised by age, as the dependent variable, having each of the 645 municipalities in the SSP as the unit of analysis. Settings The female resident population aged 15 years or older, by age group and municipality, in 2009 (mid-term), obtained from public dataset (Informatics Department of the Unified Health System). Participants Women 15 years or older who died of breast cancer in the SSP were selected for the calculation of the breast cancer mortality rate, according to the municipality and age group, from 2006 to 2012. Main outcome measures Mortality rates for each municipality calculated by the direct standardisation method, using the age structure of the population of SSP in 2009 as the standard. Results In the final linear regression model, breast cancer mortality, in the municipal level, was directly associated with rates of nulliparity (p<0.0001), mammography (p<0.0001) and private healthcare (p=0.006). Conclusions The findings that mammography ratio was associated, in the municipal level, with increased mortality add to the evidence of a probable overestimation of benefits and underestimation of risks associated with this form of screening. The same paradoxical trend of increased mortality with screening was found in recent individual-level studies, indicating the need to expand informed choice for patients, primary prevention actions and individualised screening. Additional studies should be conducted to explore if there is a causality link in this association. PMID:28838894

Detecting critical periods in larval flatfish populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambers, R. Christopher; Witting, David A.; Lewis, Stephen J.

2001-06-01

We evaluate the time-course of deaths and evidence of periods of increased mortality (i.e., critical periods) in laboratory populations of larval flatfish. First, we make the distinction between age-at-death and abundance-at-time data for fish larvae, the latter being typical in studies of natural populations. Next, we describe an experimental investigation of age- and temperature-dependent mortality in larval winter flounder, Pseudopleuronectes americanus. The survivorship curves of these populations differed significantly in both the magnitude and time-course of mortality among the four water temperatures evaluated (7, 10, 13, and 16°C). Mortality was highest in the cooler temperatures and concentrated in the third quarter of larval life, largely concurrent with settlement of surviving members of the cohort. Among the statistical methods for analysing survival data, the proportional-hazards model with time-varying covariates proved best at capturing the patterns of age-specific mortalities. We conclude that fair appraisals of recruitment hypotheses which are predicated on periods of high, age-specific mortality that vary with environmental conditions (e.g., Hjort's critical period hypothesis) will require: (1) data that are based on age, not time; (2) data that are of higher temporal resolution than commonly available at present and (3) analytical methods that are sensitive to irregularities in survivorship curves. We suggest four research approaches for evaluating critical periods in nature.

Short-term and delayed effects of mother death on calf mortality in Asian elephants.

PubMed

Lahdenperä, Mirkka; Mar, Khyne U; Lummaa, Virpi

2016-01-01

Long-lived, highly social species with prolonged offspring dependency can show long postreproductive periods. The Mother hypothesis proposes that a need for extended maternal care of offspring together with increased maternal mortality risk associated with old age select for such postreproductive survival, but tests in species with long postreproductive periods, other than humans and marine mammals, are lacking. Here, we investigate the Mother hypothesis with longitudinal data on Asian elephants from timber camps of Myanmar 1) to determine the costs of reproduction on female age-specific mortality risk within 1 year after calving and 2) to quantify the effects of mother loss on calf survival across development. We found that older females did not show an increased immediate mortality risk after calving. Calves had a 10-fold higher mortality risk in their first year if they lost their mother, but this decreased with age to only a 1.1-fold higher risk in the fifth year. We also detected delayed effects of maternal death: calves losing their mother during early ages still suffered from increased mortality risk at ages 3-4 and during adolescence but such effects were weaker in magnitude. Consequently, the Mother hypothesis could account for the first 5 years of postreproductive survival, but there were no costs of continued reproduction on the immediate maternal mortality risk. However, the observed postreproductive lifespan of females surviving to old age commonly exceeds 5 years in Asian elephants, and further studies are thus needed to determine selection for (postreproductive) lifespan in elephants and other comparably long-lived species.

Excess mortality related to the August 2003 heat wave in France

PubMed Central

Fouillet, Anne; Rey, Grégoire; Laurent, Françoise; Pavillon, Gérard; Bellec, Stéphanie; Ghihenneuc-Jouyaux, Chantal; Clavel, Jacqueline; Jougla, Eric; Hémon, Denis

2006-01-01

Objectives From August 1st to 20th, 2003, the mean maximum temperature in France exceeded the seasonal norm by 11 to 12°C on nine consecutive days. A major increase in mortality was then observed, which main epidemiological features are described herein. Methods The number of deaths observed from August to November, 2003 in France was compared to those expected on the basis of the mortality rates observed from 2000 to 2002 and the 2003 population estimates. Results From August 1st to 20th, 2003, 15000 excess deaths were observed. From 35 years age, the excess mortality was marked and increased with age. It was 15% higher in women than in men of comparable age as of age 45 years. Excess mortality at home and in retirement institutions was greater than that in hospitals. The mortality of widowed, single and divorced subjects was greater than that of married people. Deaths directly related to heat, heatstroke, hyperthermia and dehydration increased massively. Cardiovascular diseases, ill-defined morbid disorders, respiratory diseases and nervous system diseases also markedly contributed to the excess mortality. The geographic variations in mortality showed a clear age-dependent relationship with the number of very hot days. No harvesting effect was observed. Conclusions Heat waves must be considered as a threat to European populations living in climates that are currently temperate. While the elderly and people living alone are particularly vulnerable to heat waves, no segment of the population may be considered protected from the risks associated with heat waves. PMID:16523319

Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, J.B.C.; Kirby, M.X.; Berger, W.H.; Bjorndal, K.A.; Botsford, L.W.; Bourque, B.J.; Bradbury, R.; Cooke, R.; Erlandson, J.; Estes, J.A.; Hughes, T.P.; Kidwell, S.; Lange, C.B.; Lenihan, H.S.; Pandolfi, J.M.; Peterson, C.H.; Steneck, R.S.; Tegner, M.J.; Warner, R.

2001-01-01

A method for calculating parameters necessary to maintain stable populations is described and the management implications of the method are discussed. This method depends upon knowledge of the population mortality rate schedule, the age at which the species reaches maturity, and recruitment rates or age ratios in the population. Four approaches are presented which yield information about the status of the population: (1) necessary production for a stable population, (2) allowable mortality for a stable population, (3) annual rate of change in population size, and (4) age ratios in the population which yield a stable condition. General formulas for these relationships, and formulas for several special cases, are presented. Tables are also presented showing production required to maintain a stable population with the simpler (more common) mortality and fecundity schedules.

Alcohol-related deaths contribute to socioeconomic differentials in mortality in Sweden.

PubMed

Hemström, Orjan

2002-12-01

This study aims at estimating the contribution of alcohol to socioeconomic mortality differentials in Sweden. Data were obtained from a Census-linked Deaths Registry. Participants in the 1980 and 1990 censuses were included with a follow-up of mortality 1990-1995. Socioeconomic status was assigned from occupation in 1990 or 1980. Alcohol-related deaths were defined from underlying or contributory causes. Poison regressions were applied to compute age-adjusted mortality rate ratios for all-causes, alcohol-related and other causes among 30-79-year-olds. The contribution of alcohol to mortality differentials was calculated from absolute differences. Around 5% (9,547) of all deaths were alcohol-related (30-79 years). For both sexes, manual workers, lower nonmanuals, entrepreneurs and unclassifiable groups had significantly higher alcohol-related mortality than did upper nonmanuals. Male farmers had significantly lower such mortality. The contribution of alcohol to excess mortality over that of upper nonmanuals was greatest among middle-aged (40-59 years) men who were manual workers or who belonged to a group of 'unclassifiable & others' (25-35%). It was of considerable size also for middle-aged lower nonmanuals (both sexes), male entrepreneurs, female manual workers and 'unclassifiable & others'. Among men, the total contribution of alcohol (30-79 years) was estimated at 16% for manual workers, 10% for lower nonmanuals and 7% for entrepreneurs; and among women, 6% (manual workers, lower nonmanuals) and 3% (entrepreneurs). Although deaths related to alcohol were probably underreported (e.g. accidents), alcohol clearly contributes to socioeconomic mortality differentials in Sweden. The size of this contribution depends strongly on age (peak among the middle-aged) and gender (greatest among men).

Mortality as a function of obesity and diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Pettitt, D J; Lisse, J R; Knowler, W C; Bennett, P H

1982-03-01

Mortality according to body mass index (weight/height2) was studied in 2197 Pima Indians aged 15-74 years, as part of the longitudinal study of diabetes begun in 1965 in the Gila River Indian Community of Arizona. The Pima Indians are a population with a high prevalence of obesity, and they have the highest known incidence of type II (non-insulin dependent) diabetes mellitus. Among males, mortality was greatest in those with a body mass index of at least 40 kg/m2, but obesity had little effect on mortality at body mass indices below 40 kg/m2. Age-specific death rates in women were not consistently related to obesity, although mortality in subjects with diabetes was higher than in those without. In men, diabetes had little effect on mortality. In this study, as in several other mortality studies, the lowest mortality rates were experienced by people with body weights well above those recommended as "desirable" by the Society of Actuaries in 1959. Thus, the applicability of the "desirable" weight standards in common use is questioned.

Burn-center quality improvement: are burn outcomes dependent on admitting facilities and is there a volume-outcome "sweet-spot"?

PubMed

Hranjec, Tjasa; Turrentine, Florence E; Stukenborg, George; Young, Jeffrey S; Sawyer, Robert G; Calland, James F

2012-05-01

Risk factors of mortality in burn patients such as inhalation injury, patient age, and percent of total body surface area (%TBSA) burned have been identified in previous publications. However, little is known about the variability of mortality outcomes between burn centers and whether the admitting facilities or facility volumes can be recognized as predictors of mortality. De-identified data from 87,665 acute burn observations obtained from the National Burn Repository between 2003 and 2007 were used to estimate a multivariable logistic regression model that could predict patient mortality with reference to the admitting burn facility/facility volume, adjusted for differences in age, inhalation injury, %TBSA burned, and an additional factor, percent full thickness burn (%FTB). As previously reported, all three covariates (%TBSA burned, inhalation injury, and age) were found to be highly statistically significant risk factors of mortality in burn patients (P value < 0.0001). The additional variable, %FTB, was also found to be a statistically significant determinant, although it did not greatly improve the multivariable model. The treatment/admitting facility was found to be an independent mortality predictor, with certain hospitals having increased odds of death and others showing a protective effect (decreased odds ratio). Hospitals with high burn volumes had the highest risk of mortality. Mortality outcomes of patients with similar risk factors (%TBSA burned, inhalation injury, age, and %FTB) are significantly affected by the treating facility and their admission volumes.

Minimizing the dependency ratio in a population with below-replacement fertility through immigration

PubMed Central

Simon, C.; Belyakov, A.O.; Feichtinger, G.

2012-01-01

Many industrialized countries face fertility rates below replacement level, combined with declining mortality especially in older ages. Consequently, the populations of these countries have started to age. One important indicator of age structures is the dependency ratio which is the ratio of the nonworking age population to the working age population. In this work we find the age-specific immigration profile that minimizes the dependency ratio in a stationary population with below-replacement fertility. It is assumed that the number of immigrants per age is limited. We consider two alternative policies. In the first one, we fix the total number of people who annually immigrate to a country. In the second one, we prescribe the size of the receiving country’s population. For both cases we provide numerical results for the optimal immigration profile, for the resulting age structure of the population, as well as for the dependency ratio. PMID:22781918

A new view of avian life-history evolution tested on an incubation paradox.

PubMed

Martin, Thomas E

2002-02-07

Viewing life-history evolution in birds based on an age-specific mortality framework can explain broad life-history patterns, including the long incubation periods in southern latitudes documented here. I show that incubation periods of species that are matched phylogenetically and ecologically between Argentina and Arizona are longer in Argentina. Long incubation periods have mystified scientists because they increase the accumulated risk of time-dependent mortality to young without providing a clear benefit. I hypothesize that parents of species with low adult mortality accept increased risk of mortality to their young from longer incubation if this allows reduced risk of mortality to themselves. During incubation, songbird parents can reduce risk of mortality to themselves by reducing nest attentiveness (percentage of time on the nest). Here I show that parents of species with lower adult mortality exhibit reduced nest attentiveness and that lower attentiveness is associated with longer incubation periods. However, the incubation period is also modified by juvenile mortality. Clutch size variation is also strongly correlated with age-specific mortality. Ultimately, adult and juvenile mortality explain variation in incubation and other life-history traits better than the historical paradigm.

Decomposition of socio-economic differences in life expectancy at birth by age and cause of death among 4 million South Korean public servants and their dependents.

PubMed

Khang, Young-Ho; Yang, Seungmi; Cho, Hong-Jun; Jung-Choi, Kyunghee; Yun, Sung-Cheol

2010-12-01

Differences in life expectancy at birth across social classes can be more easily interpreted as a measure of absolute inequalities in survival. This study quantified age- and cause-specific contributions to life expectancy differences by income among 4 million public servants and their dependents in South Korea (9.1% of the total Korean population). Using 9-year mortality follow-up data (208,612 deaths) on 4,055,150 men and women aged 0-94 years, with national health insurance premiums imposed proportionally based on monthly salary as a measure of income, differences in life expectancy at birth by income were estimated by age- and cause-specific mortality differences using Arriaga's decomposition method. Life expectancy at birth gradually increased with income. Differences in life expectancy at birth between the highest and the lowest income quartile were 6.22 years in men and 1.74 years in women. Mortality differentials by income among those aged ≥50 years contributed most substantially (80.4% in men and 85.6% in women) to the socio-economic differences in life expectancy at birth. In men, cancers (stomach, liver and lung), cardiovascular diseases (stroke), digestive diseases (liver cirrhosis) and external causes (transport accidents and suicide) were important contributors to the life expectancy differences. In women, the contribution of ill-defined causes was most important. Cardiovascular diseases (stroke and hypertensive disease) and external causes (transport accidents and suicide) also contributed to the life expectancy differences in women while the contributions of cancers and digestive diseases were minimal. Reductions in socio-economic differentials in mortality from stroke and external causes (transport accidents and suicide) among middle-aged and older men and women would significantly contribute to equalizing life expectancy among income groups. Policy efforts to reduce mortality differentials in major cancers (stomach, liver and lung) and liver cirrhosis are also important for eliminating Korean men's socio-economic inequalities in life expectancy.

Modeling turbidity type and intensity effects on the growth and starvation mortality of age-0 yellow perch

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manning, Nathan M; Bossenbroek, Jonathan M.; Mayer, Christine M.; Bunnell, David B.; Tyson, Jeff T.; Rudstam, Lars G.; Jackson, James R.

2014-01-01

We sought to quantify the possible population-level influence of sediment plumes and algal blooms on yellow perch (Perca flavescens), a visual predator found in systems with dynamic water clarity. We used an individual-based model (IBM), which allowed us to include variance in water clarity and the distribution of individual sizes. Our IBM was built with laboratory data showing that larval yellow perch feeding rates increased slightly as sediment turbidity level increased, but that both larval and juvenile yellow perch feeding rates decreased as phytoplankton level increased. Our IBM explained a majority of the variance in yellow perch length in data from the western and central basins of Lake Erie and Oneida Lake, with R2 values ranging from 0.611 to 0.742. Starvation mortality was size dependent, as the greatest daily mortality rates in each simulation occurred within days of each other. Our model showed that turbidity-dependent consumption rates and temperature are key components in determining growth and starvation mortality of age-0 yellow perch, linking fish production to land-based processes that influence water clarity. These results suggest the timing and persistence of sediment plumes and algal blooms can drastically alter the growth potential and starvation mortality of a yellow perch cohort.

Regulation of an unexploited brown trout population in Spruce Creek, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carline, R.F.

2006-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to describe the annual variations in the density of an unexploited population of lotic brown trout Salmo trutta that has been censused annually for 19 years and to explore the importance of density-independent and density-dependent processes in regulating population size. Brown trout density and indices of stream discharge and water temperature were related to annual variations in natural mortality, recruitment, and growth. Annual mortality of age-1 and older (age-1+) brown trout ranged from 0.30 to 0.75 and was best explained by discharge during spring and by brown trout density. Recruitment to age 1 varied fivefold. Density of age-1 brown trout was inversely related to spawner density and positively related to discharge during the fall spawning period. The median length of age-1 brown trout was positively related to discharge during summer and fall. Relative weight was inversely related to the density of age-2+ brown trout. The interactive effects of discharge and brown trout density accounted for most of the annual variation in mortality, recruitment, and growth during the first year of life. Annual trends in the abundance of age-1+ brown trout were largely dictated by natural mortality. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Trade-off between cancer and aging: What role do other diseases play? Evidence from experimental and human population studies

PubMed Central

Yashin, Anatoli I.; Ukraintseva, Svetlana V.; Akushevich, Igor V.; Arbeev, Konstantin G.; Kulminski, Alexander; Akushevich, Lucy

2009-01-01

The potential gain in life expectancy which could result from the complete elimination of mortality from cancer in the U.S. would not exceed 3 years if one were to consider cancer independently of other causes of death. In this paper, we review evidence of trade-offs between cancer and aging as well as between cancer and other diseases, which, if taken into account, may substantially increase estimates of gain in life expectancy resulting from cancer eradication. We also used the Multiple Causes of Death (MCD) data to evaluate correlations among mortalities from cancer and other major disorders including heart disease, stroke, diabetes, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s diseases, and asthma. Our analyses revealed significant negative correlations between cancer and other diseases suggesting stronger population effects of cancer eradication. Possible mechanisms of the observed dependencies and emerging perspectives of using dependent competing risks models for evaluating the effects of reduction of mortality from cancer on life expectancy are discussed. PMID:18452970

Influence of Social Engagement on Mortality in Korea: Analysis of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (2006-2012).

PubMed

Kim, Jae-Hyun; Lee, Sang Gyu; Kim, Tae-Hyun; Choi, Young; Lee, Yunhwan; Park, Eun-Cheol

2016-07-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of social engagement and patterns of change in social engagement over time on mortality in a large population, aged 45 years or older. Data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging from 2006 and 2012 were assessed using longitudinal data analysis. We included 8,234 research subjects at baseline (2006). The primary analysis was based on Cox proportional hazards models to examine our hypothesis. The hazard ratio of all-cause mortality for the lowest level of social engagement was 1.841-times higher (P < 0.001) compared with the highest level of social engagement. Subgroup analysis results by gender showed a similar trend. A six-class linear solution fit the data best, and class 1 (the lowest level of social engagement class, 7.6% of the sample) was significantly related to the highest mortality (HR: 4.780, P < 0.001). Our results provide scientific insight on the effects of the specificity of the level of social engagement and changes in social engagement on all-cause mortality in current practice, which are important for all-cause mortality risk. Therefore, protection from all-cause mortality may depend on avoidance of constant low-levels of social engagement.

Gait Speed Predicts Incident Disability: A Pooled Analysis

PubMed Central

Patel, Kushang V.; Rosano, Caterina; Rubin, Susan M.; Satterfield, Suzanne; Harris, Tamara; Ensrud, Kristine; Orwoll, Eric; Lee, Christine G.; Chandler, Julie M.; Newman, Anne B.; Cauley, Jane A.; Guralnik, Jack M.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Studenski, Stephanie A.

2016-01-01

Background. Functional independence with aging is an important goal for individuals and society. Simple prognostic indicators can inform health promotion and care planning, but evidence is limited by heterogeneity in measures of function. Methods. We performed a pooled analysis of data from seven studies of 27,220 community-dwelling older adults aged 65 or older with baseline gait speed, followed for disability and mortality. Outcomes were incident inability or dependence on another person in bathing or dressing; and difficulty walking ¼ – ½ mile or climbing 10 steps within 3 years. Results. Participants with faster baseline gait had lower rates of incident disability. In subgroups (defined by 0.2 m/s-wide intervals from <0.4 to ≥1.4 m/s) with increasingly greater gait speed, 3-year rates of bathing or dressing dependence trended from 10% to 1% in men, and from 15% to 1% in women, while mobility difficulty trended from 47% to 4% in men and 40% to 6% in women. The age-adjusted relative risk ratio per 0.1 m/s greater speed for bathing or dressing dependence in men was 0.68 (0.57–0.81) and in women: 0.74 (0.66–0.82); for mobility difficulty, men: 0.75 (0.68–0.82), women: 0.73 (0.67–0.80). Results were similar for combined disability and mortality. Effects were largely consistent across subgroups based on age, gender, race, body mass index, prior hospitalization, and selected chronic conditions. In the presence of multiple other risk factors for disability, gait speed significantly increased the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve. Conclusion. In older adults, gait speed predicts 3 year incidence of bathing or dressing dependence, mobility difficulty, and a composite outcome of disability and mortality. PMID:26297942

Years of potential life lost amongst heroin users in the Australian Treatment Outcome Study cohort, 2001-2015.

PubMed

Darke, Shane; Marel, Christina; Mills, Katherine L; Ross, Joanne; Slade, Tim; Tessson, Maree

2016-05-01

Heroin use carries the highest burden of disease of any drug of dependence. The study aimed to determine mortality rates of the Australian Treatment Outcome Study cohort over the period 2001-2015, and the years of potential life lost (YPLL). The cohort consisted of 615 heroin users. Crude mortality rates per 1000 person years (PY) and Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMR) were calculated. YPLL were calculated using two criteria: years lost prior to age 65, and years lost prior to average life expectancy. The cohort was followed for 7,790.9 PY. At 2015, 72 (11.7%) of the cohort were deceased, with a crude mortality rate of 9.2 per 1000 PYs. Neither age nor gender associated with mortality. The SMR was 10.2 (males 7.3, females 17.2), matched for age, gender and year of death. The most common mortality cause was opioid overdose (52.8%). Using the<65 years criterion, there were 1988.3 YPLL, with a mean of 27.6 (males 27.6, females 27.7). Using the average life expectancy criterion, there were 3135.1 YPLL, with a mean of 43.5 (males 41.9, females 46.3). Accidental overdose (<65 yr 63.0%, average life expectancy 63.7%) and suicide (<65 yr 12.8%, average life expectancy 13.3%) accounted for three quarters of YPLL where cause of death was known. YPLL associated with heroin use was a quarter of a century, or close to half a century, depending on the criteria used. Given the prominent role of overdose and suicide, the majority of these fatalities, and the associated YPLL, appear preventable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trend surface models in the representation and analysis of time factors in cancer mortality.

PubMed

Cislaghi, C; Negri, E; La Vecchia, C; Levi, F

1990-01-01

A method of graphic representation of time factors in cancer mortality is presented, based on different tonalities of grey applied to the surface of the matrix defined by various age-specific rates. It is illustrated using mortality data from cancers of the mouth or pharynx, oesophagus, larynx and lung in Italian and Swiss males. Progressively more complex regression surface equations are defined, on the basis of two independent variables (age and cohort) and a dependent one (each age-specific rate). General patterns of trends were thus identified, showing important similarities in cohort and period effects, but also noticeable differences in time-related factors in mortality from various neoplasms of the upper digestive and respiratory tract. For instance, there were declines in mortality from cancers of the mouth or pharynx in the oldest age groups, whereas rates were appreciably upwards at younger and middle age, particularly in Italy. Likewise, cancers of the oesophagus and, chiefly, of the larynx were substantially increasing, on a cohort basis, in oldest Italian males. Temporal pattern for laryngeal cancer in Italy was similar to that of lung cancer, thus suggesting that (cigarette) smoking has a greater impact on this cancer site as compared with alcohol. However, it is difficult to explain, on this basis alone, the totally diverging pattern for cancer of the larynx (downwards) and of the lung (upwards) observed among older Swiss males. These examples indicate that trend surface models are a useful summary guide to illustrate and understand the general patterns of age, period and cohort effects in cancer mortality.

Gender-specific mortality in DTP-IPV- and MMR±MenC-eligible age groups to determine possible sex-differential effects of vaccination: an observational study.

PubMed

Schurink-van't Klooster, Tessa M; Knol, Mirjam J; de Melker, Hester E; van der Sande, Marianne A B

2015-03-24

Several studies suggested that vaccines could have non-specific effects on mortality depending on the type of vaccine. Non-specific effects seem to be different in boys and girls. In this study we want to investigate whether there are differences in gender-specific mortality among Dutch children according to the last vaccination received. We tested the hypothesis that the mortality rate ratio for girls versus boys is more favourable for girls following MMR±MenC vaccination (from 14 months of age) compared with the ratio following DTP-IPV vaccination (2-13 months of age). Secondarily, we investigated whether there were gender-specific changes in mortality following booster vaccination at 4 years of age. This observational study included all Dutch children aged 0-11 years from 2000 until 2011. Age groups were classified according to the last vaccination offered. The mortality rates for all natural causes of death were calculated by gender and age group. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were computed using a multivariable Poisson analysis to compare mortality in boys and girls across different age groups. The study population consisted of 6,261,472 children. During the study period, 14,038 children (0.22%) died, 91% of which were attributed to a known natural cause of death. The mortality rate for natural causes was higher among boys than girls in all age groups. Adjusted IRRs for girls compared with boys ranged between 0.81 (95% CI 0.74-0.89) and 0.91 (95% CI 0.77-1.07) over the age groups. The IRR did not significantly differ between all vaccine-related age groups (p=0.723), between children 2-13 months (following DTP-IPV vaccination) and 14 months-3 years (following MMR±MenC vaccination) (p=0.493) and between children 14 months-3 years and 4-8 years old (following DTP-IPV vaccination) (p=0.868). In the Netherlands, a high income country, no differences in gender-specific mortality related to the type of last vaccination received were observed in DTP-IPV- and MMR ± MenC eligible age groups. The inability to detect this effect indicates that when non-specific effects were present the effects were not reflected in changes in the differences in mortality between boys and girls. The findings in this large population-based study are reassuring for the continued trust in the safety of the national vaccination programme.

Age- and sex-specific mortality and population structure in sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Burdin, A.M.; Ryazanov, D.A.

2000-01-01

We used 742 beach-cast carcasses to characterize age- and sex-specific sea otter mortality during the winter of 1990-1991 at Bering Island, Russia. We also examined 363 carcasses recovered after the 1989 grounding of the T/V Exxon Valdez, to characterize age and sex composition in the living western Prince William Sound (WPWS) sea otter population. At Bering Island, mortality was male-biased (81%), and 75% were adults. The WPWS population was female-biased (59%) and most animals were subadult (79% of the males and 45% of the females). In the decade prior to 1990-1991 we found increasing sea otter densities (particularly among males), declining prey resources, and declining weights in adult male sea otters at Bering Island. Our findings suggest the increased mortality at Bering Island in 1990-1991 was a density-dependent population response. We propose male-maintained breeding territories and exclusion of juvenile females by adult females, providing a mechanism for maintaining densities in female areas below densities in male areas and for potentially moderating the effects of prey reductions on the female population. Increased adult male mortality at Bering Island in 1990-1991 likely modified the sex and age class structure there toward that observed in Prince William Sound.

Demographic controls of aboveground forest biomass across North America.

PubMed

Vanderwel, Mark C; Zeng, Hongcheng; Caspersen, John P; Kunstler, Georges; Lichstein, Jeremy W

2016-04-01

Ecologists have limited understanding of how geographic variation in forest biomass arises from differences in growth and mortality at continental to global scales. Using forest inventories from across North America, we partitioned continental-scale variation in biomass growth and mortality rates of 49 tree species groups into (1) species-independent spatial effects and (2) inherent differences in demographic performance among species. Spatial factors that were separable from species composition explained 83% and 51% of the respective variation in growth and mortality. Moderate additional variation in mortality (26%) was attributable to differences in species composition. Age-dependent biomass models showed that variation in forest biomass can be explained primarily by spatial gradients in growth that were unrelated to species composition. Species-dependent patterns of mortality explained additional variation in biomass, with forests supporting less biomass when dominated by species that are highly susceptible to competition (e.g. Populus spp.) or to biotic disturbances (e.g. Abies balsamea). © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Multi-morbidity, dependency, and frailty singly or in combination have different impact on health outcomes.

PubMed

Woo, Jean; Leung, Jason

2014-04-01

Multi-morbidity, dependency, and frailty were studied simultaneously in a community-living cohort of 4,000 men and women aged 65 years and over to examine the independent and combined effects on four health outcomes (mortality, decline in physical function, depression, and polypharmacy). The influence of socioeconomic status on these relationships is also examined. Mortality data was documented after a mean follow-up period of 9 years, while other health outcomes were documented after 4 years of follow-up. Fifteen percent of the cohort did not have any of these syndromes. Of the remaining participants, nearly one third had multi-morbidity and frailty (pre-frail and frail), while all three syndromes were present in 11 %. All syndromes as well as socioeconomic status were significantly associated with all health outcomes. Mortality was only increased for age, being male, frailty status, and combinations of syndromes that included frailty. Both multi-morbidity and frailtymale was protective. Only a combination of all three syndromes, and age per se, increased the risk of depressive symptoms at 4 years while being male conferred reduced risk. Multi-morbidity, but not frailty status or dependency, and all syndrome combinations that included multi-morbidity were associated with use of ≥ four medications. Decline in homeostatic function with age may thus be quantified and taken into account in prediction of various health outcomes, with a view to prevention, management, formulation of guidelines, service planning, and the conduct of randomized controlled trials of interventions or treatment.

Age-Based Methods to Explore Time-Related Variables in Occupational Epidemiology Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janice P. Watkins, Edward L. Frome, Donna L. Cragle

2005-08-31

Although age is recognized as the strongest predictor of mortality in chronic disease epidemiology, a calendar-based approach is often employed when evaluating time-related variables. An age-based analysis file, created by determining the value of each time-dependent variable for each age that a cohort member is followed, provides a clear definition of age at exposure and allows development of diverse analytic models. To demonstrate methods, the relationship between cancer mortality and external radiation was analyzed with Poisson regression for 14,095 Oak Ridge National Laboratory workers. Based on previous analysis of this cohort, a model with ten-year lagged cumulative radiation doses partitionedmore » by receipt before (dose-young) or after (dose-old) age 45 was examined. Dose-response estimates were similar to calendar-year-based results with elevated risk for dose-old, but not when film badge readings were weekly before 1957. Complementary results showed increasing risk with older hire ages and earlier birth cohorts, since workers hired after age 45 were born before 1915, and dose-young and dose-old were distributed differently by birth cohorts. Risks were generally higher for smokingrelated than non-smoking-related cancers. It was difficult to single out specific variables associated with elevated cancer mortality because of: (1) birth cohort differences in hire age and mortality experience completeness, and (2) time-period differences in working conditions, dose potential, and exposure assessment. This research demonstrated the utility and versatility of the age-based approach.« less

Role of TRPA1 in acute cardiopulmonary toxicity of inhaled acrolein

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conklin, Daniel J., E-mail: dj.conklin@louisville.

Acrolein is a highly toxic, volatile, unsaturated aldehyde generated during incomplete combustion as in tobacco smoke and indoor fires. Because the transient receptor potential ankyrin 1 (TRPA1) channel mediates tobacco smoke-induced lung injury, we assessed its role in high-level acrolein-induced toxicity in mice. Acrolein (100–275 ppm, 10–30 min) caused upper airway epithelial sloughing, bradypnea and oral gasping, hypothermia, cardiac depression and mortality. Male wild-type mice (WT, C57BL/6; 5–52 weeks) were significantly more sensitive to high-level acrolein than age-matched, female WT mice. Both male and female TRPA1-null mice were more sensitive to acrolein-induced mortality than age- and sex-matched WT mice. Acroleinmore » exposure increased lung weight:body weight ratios and lung albumin and decreased plasma albumin to a greater extent in TRPA1-null than in WT mice. Lung and plasma protein-acrolein adducts were not increased in acrolein-exposed TRPA1-null mice compared with WT mice. To assess TRPA1-dependent protective mechanisms, respiratory parameters were monitored by telemetry. TRPA1-null mice had a slower onset of breathing rate suppression (‘respiratory braking’) than WT mice suggesting TRPA1 mediates this protective response. Surprisingly, WT male mice treated either with a TRPA1 antagonist (HC030031; 200 mg/kg) alone or with combined TRPA1 (100 mg/kg) and TRPV1 (capsazepine, 10 mg/kg) antagonists at 30 min post-acrolein exposure (i.e., “real world” delay in treatment) were significantly protected from acrolein-induced mortality. These data show TRPA1 protects against high-level acrolein-induced toxicity in a sex-dependent manner. Post-exposure TRPA1 antagonism also protected against acrolein-induced mortality attesting to a complex role of TRPA1 in cardiopulmonary injury. - Highlights: • TRPA1 protects mice against toxicity and mortality of inhaled high-level acrolein. • TRPA1 protection against inhaled high-level acrolein is sex-dependent in mice. • Age (5–52 weeks old) was not a determinant of acrolein-induced mortality in mice. • TRPA1 antagonist is protective after inhaled high-level acrolein in male mice.« less

LIFE HISTORY. Age-related mortality explains life history strategies of tropical and temperate songbirds.

PubMed

Martin, Thomas E

2015-08-28

Life history theory attempts to explain why species differ in offspring number and quality, growth rate, and parental effort. I show that unappreciated interactions of these traits in response to age-related mortality risk challenge traditional perspectives and explain life history evolution in songbirds. Counter to a long-standing paradigm, tropical songbirds grow at similar overall rates to temperate species but grow wings relatively faster. These growth tactics are favored by predation risk, both in and after leaving the nest, and are facilitated by greater provisioning of individual offspring by parents. Increased provisioning of individual offspring depends on partitioning effort among fewer young because of constraints on effort from adult and nest mortality. These growth and provisioning responses to mortality risk finally explain the conundrum of small clutch sizes of tropical birds. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Mortality from leukaemia and cancer in shipyard nuclear workers.

PubMed

Najarian, T; Colton, T

1978-05-13

A review of death certificates in New Hampshire, Maine, and Massachusetts for 1959-77 yielded a total of 1722 deaths among former workers at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard where nuclear submarines are repaired and refuelled. Next of kin were contacted for 592. All deaths under age 80 were classified as being in former nuclear or non-nuclear workers depending on information supplied by next of kin. With U.S. age-specific proportional cancer mortality for White males as a standard, the observed/expected ratio of leukaemia deaths was 5.62 (6 observed, 1.1 expected) among the 146 former nuclear workers. For all cancer deaths, this ratio was 1.78. Among non-nuclear workers there was no statistically significant increase in proportional mortality from either leukaemia or from all cancers. The excess proportional leukaemia and cancer mortality among nuclear workers exceeds predictions based on previous data of radiation effects in man.

Race/ethnicity and all-cause mortality in US adults: revisiting the Hispanic paradox.

PubMed

Borrell, Luisa N; Lancet, Elizabeth A

2012-05-01

We examined the association between race/ethnicity and all-cause mortality risk in US adults and whether this association differs by nativity status. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate all-cause mortality rates in 1997 through 2004 National Health Interview Survey respondents, relating the risk for Hispanic subgroup, non-Hispanic Black, and other non-Hispanic to non-Hispanic White adults before and after controlling for selected characteristics stratified by age and gender. We observed a Hispanic mortality advantage over non-Hispanic Whites among women that depended on nativity status: US-born Mexican Americans aged 25 to 44 years had a 90% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.03, 0.31) lower death rate; island- or foreign-born Cubans and other Hispanics aged 45 to 64 years were more than two times less likely to die than were their non-Hispanic White counterparts. Island- or foreign-born Puerto Rican and US-born Mexican American women aged 65 years and older exhibited at least a 25% lower rate of dying than did their non-Hispanics White counterparts. The "Hispanic paradox" may not be a static process and may change with this population growth and its increasing diversity over time.

Apolipoprotein E and mortality in African-Americans and Yoruba.

PubMed

Lane, Kathleen A; Gao, Sujuan; Hui, Siu L; Murrell, Jill R; Hall, Kathleen S; Hendrie, Hugh C

2003-10-01

The literature on the association between apolipoprotein E (ApoE) and mortality across ethnic and age groups has been inconsistent. No studies have looked at this association in developing countries. We used data from the Indianapolis-Ibadan Dementia study to examine this association between APOE and mortality in 354 African-Americans from Indianapolis and 968 Yoruba from Ibadan, Nigeria. Participants were followed up to 9.5 years for Indianapolis and 8.7 years for Ibadan. Subjects from both sites were divided into 2 groups based upon age at baseline. A Cox proportional hazards regression model adjusting for age at baseline, education, hypertension, smoking history and gender in addition to time-dependent covariates of cancer, diabetes, heart disease, stroke, and dementia was fit for each cohort and age group. Having ApoE epsilon4 alleles significantly increased mortality risk in Indianapolis subjects under age 75 (hazard ratio: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.19-3.35; p = 0.0089). No association was found in Indianapolis subjects 75 and older (hazard ratio: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.45-1.10; p = 0.1238), Ibadan subjects under 75 (hazard ratio: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.78 to 1.40; p = 0.7782), or Ibadan subjects over 75 (hazard ratio: 1.21; 95% CI: 0.83 to 1.75; p = 0.3274).

Apolipoprotein E and mortality in African-Americans and Yoruba

PubMed Central

Lane, Kathleen A.; Gao, Sujuan; Hui, Siu L.; Murrell, Jill R.; Hall, Kathleen S.; Hendrie, Hugh C.

2011-01-01

The literature on the association between apolipoprotein E (ApoE) and mortality across ethnic and age groups has been inconsistent. No studies have looked at this association in developing countries. We used data from the Indianapolis-Ibadan Dementia study to examine this association between APOE and mortality in 354 African-Americans from Indianapolis and 968 Yoruba from Ibadan, Nigeria. Participants were followed up to 9.5 years for Indianapolis and 8.7 years for Ibadan. Subjects from both sites were divided into 2 groups based upon age at baseline. A Cox proportional hazards regression model adjusting for age at baseline, education, hypertension, smoking history and gender in addition to time-dependent covariates of cancer, diabetes, heart disease, stroke, and dementia was fit for each cohort and age group. Having ApoE ε4 alleles significantly increased mortality risk in Indianapolis subjects under age 75 ( hazard ratio: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.19–3.35; p = 0.0089). No association was found in Indianapolis subjects 75 and older (hazard ratio: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.45–1.10; p = 0.1238), Ibadan subjects under 75 (hazard ratio: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.78 to 1.40; p = 0.7782), or Ibadan subjects over 75 (hazard ratio: 1.21; 95% CI: 0.83 to 1.75; p = 0.3274). PMID:14646029

Impact of Gait Speed and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living on All-Cause Mortality in Adults ≥65 Years of Age with Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Lo, Alexander X.; Donnelly, John P.; McGwin, Gerald; Bittner, Vera; Ahmed, Ali; Brown, Cynthia J.

2015-01-01

Mobility and function are important predictors of survival. However, their combined impact on mortality in adults ≥65 years of age with heart failure (HF) is not well understood. This study examined the role of gait speed and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) in all-cause mortality in a cohort of 1,119 community-dwelling Cardiovascular Health Study participants ≥65 years of age with incident HF. Data on HF and mortality were collected through annual examinations or contact during the 10-year follow-up period. Slower gait speed (<0.8m/s vs. ≥0.8m/s) and IADL impairment (≥1 vs. 0 areas of dependence) were determined from baseline and follow-up assessments. A total of 740 (66%) of the 1119 participants died during the follow-up period. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models showed that impairments in either gait speed (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% CI 1.10-1.70; p=0.004) or IADL (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.29-1.89; p<0.001), measured within 1 year before the diagnosis of incident HF, were independently associated with mortality, adjusting for socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. The combined presence of slower gait speed and IADL impairment was associated with a greater risk of mortality and suggested an additive relationship between gait speed and IADL. In conclusion, gait speed and IADL are important risk factors for mortality in adults ≥65 years of age with HF, but the combined impairments of both gait speed and IADL can have an especially important impact on mortality. PMID:25655868

Population density and mortality among individuals in motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Gedeborg, Rolf; Thiblin, Ingemar; Byberg, Liisa; Melhus, Håkan; Lindbäck, Johan; Michaelsson, Karl

2010-10-01

To assess whether higher mortality rates among individuals in motor vehicle crashes in areas with low population density depend on injury type and severity or are related to the performance of emergency medical services (EMS). Prehospital and hospital deaths were studied in a population-based cohort of 41,243 motor vehicle crashes that occurred in Sweden between 1998 and 2004. The final multivariable analysis was restricted to 6884 individuals in motor vehicle crashes, to minimise the effects of confounding factors. Crude mortality rates following motor vehicle crashes were inversely related to regional population density. In regions with low population density, the unadjusted rate ratio for prehospital death was 2.2 (95% CI 1.9 to 2.5) and for hospital death 1.5 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.9), compared with a high-density population. However, after controlling for regional differences in age, gender and the type/severity of injuries among 6884 individuals in motor vehicle crashes, low population density was no longer associated with increased mortality. At 25 years of age, predicted prehospital mortality was 9% lower (95% CI 5% to 12%) in regions with low population density compared with high population density. This difference decreased with increasing age, but was still 3% lower (95% CI 0.5% to 5%) at 65 years of age. The inverse relationship between population density and mortality among individuals in motor vehicle crashes is related to pre-crash factors that influence the type and severity of injuries and not to differences in EMS.

Developing a burn injury severity score (BISS): adding age and total body surface area burned to the injury severity score (ISS) improves mortality concordance.

PubMed

Cassidy, J Tristan; Phillips, Michael; Fatovich, Daniel; Duke, Janine; Edgar, Dale; Wood, Fiona

2014-08-01

There is limited research validating the injury severity score (ISS) in burns. We examined the concordance of ISS with burn mortality. We hypothesized that combining age and total body surface area (TBSA) burned to the ISS gives a more accurate mortality risk estimate. Data from the Royal Perth Hospital Trauma Registry and the Royal Perth Hospital Burns Minimum Data Set were linked. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) measured concordance of ISS with mortality. Using logistic regression models with death as the dependent variable we developed a burn-specific injury severity score (BISS). There were 1344 burns with 24 (1.8%) deaths, median TBSA 5% (IQR 2-10), and median age 36 years (IQR 23-50). The results show ISS is a good predictor of death for burns when ISS≤15 (OR 1.29, p=0.02), but not for ISS>15 (ISS 16-24: OR 1.09, p=0.81; ISS 25-49: OR 0.81, p=0.19). Comparing the AUCs adjusted for age, gender and cause, ISS of 84% (95% CI 82-85%) and BISS of 95% (95% CI 92-98%), demonstrated superior performance of BISS as a mortality predictor for burns. ISS is a poor predictor of death in severe burns. The BISS combines ISS with age and TBSA and performs significantly better than the ISS. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Life-history plasticity and sustainable exploitation: a theory of growth compensation applied to walleye management.

PubMed

Lester, Nigel P; Shuter, Brian J; Venturelli, Paul; Nadeau, Daniel

2014-01-01

A simple population model was developed to evaluate the role of plastic and evolutionary life-history changes on sustainable exploitation rates. Plastic changes are embodied in density-dependent compensatory adjustments to somatic growth rate and larval/juvenile survival, which can compensate for the reductions in reproductive lifetime and mean population fecundity that accompany the higher adult mortality imposed by exploitation. Evolutionary changes are embodied in the selective pressures that higher adult mortality imposes on age at maturity, length at maturity, and reproductive investment. Analytical development, based on a biphasic growth model, led to simple equations that show explicitly how sustainable exploitation rates are bounded by each of these effects. We show that density-dependent growth combined with a fixed length at maturity and fixed reproductive investment can support exploitation-driven mortality that is 80% of the level supported by evolutionary changes in maturation and reproductive investment. Sustainable fishing mortality is proportional to natural mortality (M) times the degree of density-dependent growth, as modified by both the degree of density-dependent early survival and the minimum harvestable length. We applied this model to estimate sustainable exploitation rates for North American walleye populations (Sander vitreus). Our analysis of demographic data from walleye populations spread across a broad latitudinal range indicates that density-dependent variation in growth rate can vary by a factor of 2. Implications of this growth response are generally consistent with empirical studies suggesting that optimal fishing mortality is approximately 0.75M for teleosts. This approach can be adapted to the management of other species, particularly when significant exploitation is imposed on many, widely distributed, but geographically isolated populations.

First-year growth, condition, and size-selective winter mortality of freshwater drum in the lower Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Braaten, P.J.; Guy, C.S.

2004-01-01

We compared first-year growth and relative condition (Kn) of the 1997 and 1998 year-classes of freshwater drum Aplodinotus grunniens among three sites in a 235-km reach of the channelized Missouri River and tested for the occurrence of size-selective overwinter mortality during the first winter. Prewinter mean length was 15 mm greater, mean weight was 8 g greater, and mean Kn was 5% greater at the upstream site than at the downstream site. The prewinter mean length of age-0 freshwater drum was significantly greater in 1997 (115 mm) than in 1998 (109 mm), but Kn was significantly greater in 1998 (107) than in 1997 (102). There was no evidence that density-dependent interactions influenced prewinter growth and Kn. Size-selective overwinter mortality of the smallest size-classes of freshwater drum occurred at two of three sites during the 1997-1998 winter, and K n decreased 9-15%. Size-selective overwinter mortality of the 1998 cohort of freshwater drum did not occur during the 1998-1999 winter, and K n declined 0-10%. A prolonged growing season (through early December 1998), in conjunction with less severe winter water temperature conditions, apparently minimized the incidence of size-selective overwinter mortality for the 1998 cohort of freshwater drum. We conclude that size-selective overwinter mortality of age-0 freshwater drum occurs in the lower channelized Missouri River but depends on the length of the prewinter growing season, winter duration, and the severity of winter water temperatures.

Age-dependent impact of new ESC-Guideline recommended door-to-balloon times on mid-term survival in acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Wang, Yu-Chen; Huang, Ying-Ying; Lo, Ping-Hang; Chang, Kuan-Cheng; Chen, Chu-Huang; Chen, Ming-Fong

2016-11-01

To investigate the age-dependent impact of the superfast door-to-balloon (D2B) times of ≤60min as recommended by the new ESC Guideline for patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) on mid-term survival rates based on a single center registry dataset. This study enrolled consecutive STEMI patients who underwent PPCI from Jan 1, 2009 through Sep 30, 2013. We compared demographics, clinical characteristics and the D2B-survival relationships between patients aged ≥65 and <65. The younger group comprised 242 patients (68%) aged <65 and the elder group consisted of 115 patients (32%) aged ≥65. In patients aged <65, the mortality rate decreased linearly with D2B time shortening (>90min vs. 61-90min vs. ≤60min=14.9% vs. 13.3% vs. 1.2%, P=0.001). Contrarily, shortening of D2B time was not associated with reduced mortality rate in patients aged ≥65 (>90min vs. 61-90min vs. ≤60min=23.5% vs. 19% vs. 18.9%, P=0.99). In younger patients but not the elderly, a D2B time of <60min has sufficient power to predict mortality with a sensitivity of 0.83, specificity of 0.74, and Youden index of 0.57. Our results show that the new ESC Guideline recommendation of D2B time ≤60min is associated with better survival rates in younger STEMI patients undergoing PPCI. Our findings stress the importance of guideline adherence to minimize reperfusion delay to improve survival in these patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age-specific mortality trends in France and Italy since 1900: period and cohort effects.

PubMed

Caselli, G; Vallin, J; Vaupel, J W; Yashin, A

1987-11-01

The age/sex-specific mortality trends of France and Italy were studied over the 1899-1979 period in as much detail as possible in an effort to distinguish between cohort effects and those related to period changes. Complete series of mortality data by individual years of age and calendar years were available from 1869 to 1979 for Italy and from 1899 to 1982 for France. For both countries, these data include the military and civil deaths not registered in vital statistics during the war periods. They cover each national territory as defined by its present boundaries. The graphical representation method of mortality surfaces, elaborated by Vaupel, Gambill, and Yashin (1985), was adopted. The age/sex-specific mortality patterns of France and Italy have not followed the same trends, and the differences observed today are not those of 100 years ago. The mean death probabilities for the 1975-79 period were used to illustrate the age-specific patterns of mortality. Although infant mortality was higher in Italy than in France, the death probabilities at ages 1-15 for both sexes were roughly the same for both countries. At ages 15-23, they were much higher in France than in Italy, and they remained considerably higher in France up to age 55. From then on, the sexes differ: for males, the 2 countries showed similar patterns, whereas for females the probabilities were noticeably higher for France. The situation was very different for both countries at the beginning of the century. For both sexes, higher mortality was observed in Italy not only during infancy but throughout childhood and the adolescent years up to age 15. The 2 countries showed similar patterns from 15-25. Above age 25, the 2 countries had similar patterns for females, whereas male mortality was higher in France right up to the old age groups. Such differences in the age-specific mortality trends depend in part on a different development of health and social conditions but also may be due to factors concerning the history of particular groups of generations. The general health progress made in both countries has played an important role but, on the whole, a more favorable role in Italy. Italy's infant and child mortality have drawn nearer the French level, while it has increased its advantage regarding adult mortality. France has strengthened its position only at older ages. There have been many perturbations since 1900, the most important of which has been the 2 world wars. They affected the 2 countries differently both in terms of their immediate effects on both the civil and military populations and in the longterm effects on the cohorts that had suffered most. These cohort effects, largely related to World War I, seem to have disappeared at this time, most likely in part because of selection relevelling the chances of survival of the various cohorts and in part because of general health progress masking the slight differences that may remain.

Short and Long-Term Outcomes After Surgical Procedures Lasting for More Than Six Hours.

PubMed

Cornellà, Natalia; Sancho, Joan; Sitges-Serra, Antonio

2017-08-23

Long-term all-cause mortality and dependency after complex surgical procedures have not been assessed in the framework of value-based medicine. The aim of this study was to investigate the postoperative and long-term outcomes after surgical procedures lasting for more than six hours. Retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing a first elective complex surgical procedure between 2004 and 2013. Heart and transplant surgery was excluded. Mortality and dependency from the healthcare system were selected as outcome variables. Gender, age, ASA, creatinine, albumin kinetics, complications, benign vs malignant underlying condition, number of drugs at discharge, and admission and length of stay in the ICU were recorded as predictive variables. Some 620 adult patients were included in the study. Postoperative, <1year and <5years cumulative mortality was 6.8%, 17.6% and 45%, respectively. Of patients discharged from hospital after surgery, 76% remained dependent on the healthcare system. In multivariate analysis for postoperative, <1year and <5years mortality, postoperative albumin concentration, ASA score and an ICU stay >7days, were the most significant independent predictive variables. Prolonged surgery carries a significant short and long-term mortality and disability. These data may contribute to more informed decisions taken concerning major surgery in the framework of value-based medicine.

Short-term Outcomes After Open and Laparoscopic Colostomy Creation.

PubMed

Ivatury, Srinivas Joga; Bostock Rosenzweig, Ian C; Holubar, Stefan D

2016-06-01

Colostomy creation is a common procedure performed in colon and rectal surgery. Outcomes by technique have not been well studied. This study evaluated outcomes related to open versus laparoscopic colostomy creation. This was a retrospective review of patients undergoing colostomy creation using univariate and multivariate propensity score analyses. Hospitals participating in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database were included. Data on patients were obtained from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program 2005-2011 Participant Use Data Files. We measured 30-day mortality, 30-day complications, and predictors of 30-day mortality. A total of 2179 subjects were in the open group and 1132 in the laparoscopic group. The open group had increased age (open, 64 years vs laparoscopic, 60 years), admission from facility (17.0% vs 14.9%), and disseminated cancer (26.1% vs 21.4%). All were statistically significant. The open group had a significantly higher percentage of emergency operations (24.9% vs 7.9%). Operative time was statistically different (81 vs 86 minutes). Thirty-day mortality was significantly higher in the open group (8.7% vs 3.5%), as was any 30-day complication (25.4% vs 17.0%). Propensity-matching analysis on elective patients only revealed that postoperative length of stay and rate of any wound complication were statistically higher in the open group. Multivariate analysis for mortality was performed on the full, elective, and propensity-matched cohorts; age >65 years and dependent functional status were associated with an increased risk of mortality in all of the models. This study has the potential for selection bias and limited generalizability. Colostomy creation at American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program hospitals is more commonly performed open rather than laparoscopically. Patient age >65 years and dependent functional status are associated with an increased risk of 30-day mortality.

The evolution of senescence through decelerating selection for system reliability.

PubMed

Laird, R A; Sherratt, T N

2009-05-01

Senescence is a universal phenomenon in organisms, characterized by increasing mortality and decreasing fecundity with advancing chronological age. Most proximate agents of senescence, such as reactive oxygen species and UV radiation, are thought to operate by causing a gradual build-up of bodily damage. Yet most current evolutionary theories of senescence emphasize the deleterious effects of functioning genes in late life, leaving a gap between proximate and ultimate explanations. Here, we present an evolutionary model of senescence based on reliability theory, in which beneficial genes or gene products gradually get damaged and thereby fail, rather than actively cause harm. Specifically, the model allows organisms to evolve multiple redundant copies of a gene product (or gene) that performs a vital function, assuming that organisms can avoid condition-dependent death so long as at least one copy remains undamaged. We show that organisms with low levels of extrinsic mortality, and high levels of genetic damage, tend to evolve high levels of redundancy, and that mutation-selection balance results in a stable population distribution of the number of redundant elements. In contrast to previous evolutionary models of senescence, the mortality curves that emerge from such populations match empirical senescence patterns in three key respects: they exhibit: (1) an initially low, but rapidly increasing mortality rate at young ages, (2) a plateau in mortality at advanced ages and (3) 'mortality compensation', whereby the height of the mortality plateau is independent of the environmental conditions under which different populations evolved.

Is arthroplasty preferable to internal fixation for the treatment of extracapsular fracture of the upper femur in the elderly?

PubMed

Duriez, P; Devaux, T; Chantelot, C; Baudrier, N; Hery, J-Y; Mainard, D; Favier, T; Massin, P

2016-10-01

Although internal fixation is the reference treatment for extracapsular fracture of the upper femur, indications for arthroplasty are broadening, especially in unstable comminutive fracture in fragile bone. The present study hypothesis was that arthroplasty reduces early mortality and morbidity and provides better recovery of autonomy in over-80 year-old patients than does internal fixation. A prospective multicenter study was conducted on 8 sites. Internal fixation was systematically used in 5 centers; arthroplasty was used systematically in 1 center, and reserved for unstable fracture in 2 centers. A total of 697 patients aged over 80 years (mean age, 85±5 years), presenting with extracapsular fracture, were included; 521 were treated by internal fixation and 176 by arthroplasty. Results were studied on multivariate analysis of ASA score, blood loss, transfusion, and also of treatment modality as an independent factor for early (first 6 months) mortality and morbidity (mechanical, general and nutritional complications) and functional outcome (autonomy and dependence). Overall mortality was 19.2%. Autonomy deteriorated in 56% of patients alive at 6 months and dependence worsened in 44%. Two percent of those managed by internal fixation underwent revision for disassembly (n=8) or infection (n=1). Eight percent of those managed by arthroplasty underwent revision for dislocation (n=4), implant loosening (n=3) or infection (n=7). On univariate analysis, mortality was higher in the arthroplasty group (25%) than with internal fixation (17%; P=0.002), as were blood loss (425±286mL versus 333±223mL; P<0.0001), transfusion rate (61% versus 32%; P<0.0001) and infection (4% versus 0.2%; P<0.001). On multivariate analysis, however, treatment modality no longer showed impact on mortality or on morbidity and autonomy at 6 months. Nutritional status was better conserved at 6 months following arthroplasty, but dependence worsened. Poor preoperative autonomy, ASA score, and nutritional status and time to treatment were independent factors for mortality. Transfusion, associated with onset of mechanical complications, significantly increased dependence. Type of treatment had little impact on mortality, morbidity or functional outcome. Differences seemed more related to preoperative functional and nutritional status. III, prospective case-control study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The "Hispanic mortality paradox" revisited: Meta-analysis and meta-regression of life-course differentials in Latin American and Caribbean immigrants' mortality.

PubMed

Shor, Eran; Roelfs, David; Vang, Zoua M

2017-08-01

The literature on immigrant health has repeatedly reported the paradoxical finding, where immigrants from Latin American countries to OECD countries appear to enjoy better health and greater longevity, compared with the local population in the host country. However, no previous meta-analysis has examined this effect focusing specifically on immigrants from Latin America (rather than Hispanic ethnicity) and we still do not know enough about the factors that may moderate the relationship between immigration and mortality. We conducted meta-analyses and meta-regressions to examine 123 all-cause mortality risk estimates and 54 cardiovascular mortality risk estimates from 28 publications, providing data on almost 800 million people. The overall results showed that the mean rate ratio (RR) for immigrants vs. controls was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.84-1.01) for all-cause mortality and 0.73 (CI, 0.67-0.80) for cardiovascular mortality. While the overall results suggest no immigrant mortality advantage, studies that used only native born persons as controls did find a significant all-cause mortality advantage (RR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76-0.97). Furthermore, we found that the relative risk of mortality largely depends on life course stages. While the mortality advantage is apparent for working-age immigrants, it is not significant for older-age immigrants and the effect is reversed for children and adolescents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parental incarceration and child mortality in Denmark.

PubMed

Wildeman, Christopher; Andersen, Signe Hald; Lee, Hedwig; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

2014-03-01

We used Danish registry data to examine the association between parental incarceration and child mortality risk. We used a sample of all Danish children born in 1991 linked with parental information. We conducted discrete-time survival analysis separately for boys (n = 30 146) and girls (n = 28 702) to estimate the association of paternal and maternal incarceration with child mortality, controlling for parental sociodemographic characteristics. We followed the children until age 20 years or death, whichever came first. Results indicated a positive association between paternal and maternal imprisonment and male child mortality. Paternal imprisonment was associated with lower child mortality risks for girls. The relationship between maternal imprisonment and female child mortality changed directions depending on the model, suggesting no clear association. These results indicate that the incarceration of a parent may influence child mortality but that it is important to consider the gender of both the child and the incarcerated parent.

Phenoptosis as genetically determined aging influenced by signals from the environment.

PubMed

Khalyavkin, A V

2013-09-01

Aging is a complex and not well understood process. Two opposite concepts try to explain its causes and mechanisms - programmed aging and aging of "wear and tear" (stochastic aging). To date, much evidence has been obtained that contradicts the theories of aging as being due to accumulation of various damages. For example, creation of adequate conditions for the functioning of the organism's components (appropriate microenvironment, humoral background, etc.) has been shown to cause partial or complete reversibility of signs of its aging. Programmed aging and death of an organism can be termed phenoptosis by analogy to the term apoptosis for programmed cell death (this term was first suggested by V. P. Skulachev). The necessity of this phenomenon, since A. Weismann, has been justified by the need for population renewal according to ecological and evolutionary requirements. Species-specific lifespan, age-dependent changes in expression pattern of genes, etc. are compatible with the concept of phenoptosis. However, the intraspecific rate of aging was shown to vary over of a wide range depending on living conditions. This means that the "aging program" is not set rigidly; it sensitively adjusts an individual to the specific realities of its habitat. Moreover, there are indications that in rather severe conditions of natural habitat the aging program can be completely cancelled, as the need for it disappears because of the raised mortality from external causes (high extrinsic mortality), providing fast turnover of the population.

Survival and weak chaos.

PubMed

Nee, Sean

2018-05-01

Survival analysis in biology and reliability theory in engineering concern the dynamical functioning of bio/electro/mechanical units. Here we incorporate effects of chaotic dynamics into the classical theory. Dynamical systems theory now distinguishes strong and weak chaos. Strong chaos generates Type II survivorship curves entirely as a result of the internal operation of the system, without any age-independent, external, random forces of mortality. Weak chaos exhibits (a) intermittency and (b) Type III survivorship, defined as a decreasing per capita mortality rate: engineering explicitly defines this pattern of decreasing hazard as 'infant mortality'. Weak chaos generates two phenomena from the normal functioning of the same system. First, infant mortality- sensu engineering-without any external explanatory factors, such as manufacturing defects, which is followed by increased average longevity of survivors. Second, sudden failure of units during their normal period of operation, before the onset of age-dependent mortality arising from senescence. The relevance of these phenomena encompasses, for example: no-fault-found failure of electronic devices; high rates of human early spontaneous miscarriage/abortion; runaway pacemakers; sudden cardiac death in young adults; bipolar disorder; and epilepsy.

A hazard rate analysis of fertility using duration data from Malaysia.

PubMed

Chang, C

1988-01-01

Data from the Malaysia Fertility and Family Planning Survey (MFLS) of 1974 were used to investigate the effects of biological and socioeconomic variables on fertility based on the hazard rate model. Another study objective was to investigate the robustness of the findings of Trussell et al. (1985) by comparing the findings of this study with theirs. The hazard rate of conception for the jth fecundable spell of the ith woman, hij, is determined by duration dependence, tij, measured by the waiting time to conception; unmeasured heterogeneity (HETi; the time-invariant variables, Yi (race, cohort, education, age at marriage); and time-varying variables, Xij (age, parity, opportunity cost, income, child mortality, child sex composition). In this study, all the time-varying variables were constant over a spell. An asymptotic X2 test for the equality of constant hazard rates across birth orders, allowing time-invariant variables and heterogeneity, showed the importance of time-varying variables and duration dependence. Under the assumption of fixed effects heterogeneity and the Weibull distribution for the duration of waiting time to conception, the empirical results revealed a negative parity effect, a negative impact from male children, and a positive effect from child mortality on the hazard rate of conception. The estimates of step functions for the hazard rate of conception showed parity-dependent fertility control, evidence of heterogeneity, and the possibility of nonmonotonic duration dependence. In a hazard rate model with piecewise-linear-segment duration dependence, the socioeconomic variables such as cohort, child mortality, income, and race had significant effects, after controlling for the length of the preceding birth. The duration dependence was consistant with the common finding, i.e., first increasing and then decreasing at a slow rate. The effects of education and opportunity cost on fertility were insignificant.

REGIONAL TRENDS IN THE WORKING-AGE POPULATION MORTALITY RATE IN THE REPUBLIC OF SAKHA (YAKUTIA) IN 1990-2012.

PubMed

Ivanova, A A; Kakorina, E P; Timofeev, L F; Potapov, A F; Aprosimov, L A

2015-01-01

Regions of the Russian Federation differ in climatic-geographic, medical-demographic and social-economic situations. One of the regions with distinct peculiarities is the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Ranking first by the territory (3,103.2 thousand sq x km), Yakutia is on the 81th place by the population density among regions of the Russian Federation (0.3 people per 1 km2).Yakutia is one of the most isolated and inaccessible regions of the world: 90% of the territory lacks all-the-year-round transportation. Regions of the republic, as well, differ significantly in the climatic conditions and the levels of social-economic development, which influences the population health indicators, including mortality. This survey aimed to study the trends of mortality in the working-age population in different groups of regions. To do this, basing on the statistical data, we compared the levels, trends and structure of mortality in 1990-2012. It was established that the different groups of regions show a significant variation in the working-age population mortality, depending on the social-economic conditions. Since 2000, the Arctic group of regions has demonstrated higher mortality in working-age men and women, especially of cardiovascular and digestive system diseases, and external causes. Lying beyond the Arctic Circle, these regions have severe conditions and a relatively low level of social-economic development. As for the rural regions, despite the relatively favourabe situation, they also show a high level of mortality of external causes. The industrial regions are characterized by higher social-economic development, better transport infrastructure, a satisfactory material base of medical institutions. They also have sufficient resources of health institutions, including the staff and modern equipment for treatment and diagnostics, as well as, which is critical, the full range of medical specialists. Thus, these regions demonstrate lower population mortality; however, there is still mortality of infectious diseases, neoplasms, and respiratory diseases.

Impact of Age at Smoking Initiation on Smoking-Related Morbidity and All-Cause Mortality.

PubMed

Choi, Seung Hee; Stommel, Manfred

2017-07-01

Using a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults, the aims of this study were to examine the impact of early smoking initiation on the development of self-reported smoking-related morbidity and all-cause mortality. National Health Interview Survey data from 1997 through 2005 were linked to the National Death Index with follow-up to December 31, 2011. Two primary dependent variables were smoking-related morbidity and all-cause mortality; the primary independent variable was age of smoking initiation. The analyses included U.S. population of current and former smokers aged ≥30 years (N=90,278; population estimate, 73.4 million). The analysis relied on fitting logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models. Among the U.S. population of smokers, 7.3% started smoking before age 13 years, 11.0% at ages 13-14 years, 24.2% at ages 15-16 years, 24.5% at ages 17-18 years, 14.5% at ages 19-20 years, and 18.5% at ages ≥21 years. Early smoking initiation before age 13 years was associated with increased risks for cardiovascular/metabolic (OR=1.67) and pulmonary (OR=1.79) diseases as well as smoking-related cancers (OR=2.1) among current smokers; the risks among former smokers were cardiovascular/metabolic (OR=1.38); pulmonary (OR=1.89); and cancers (OR=1.44). Elevated mortality was also related to early smoking initiation among both current (hazard ratio, 1.18) and former smokers (hazard ratio, 1.19). Early smoking initiation increases risks of experiencing smoking-related morbidities and all-cause mortality. These risks are independent of demographic characteristics, SES, health behaviors, and subsequent smoking intensity. Comprehensive tobacco control programs should be implemented to prevent smoking initiation and promote cessation among youth. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early primary repair of tetralogy of fallot in neonates and infants less than four months of age.

PubMed

Tamesberger, Melanie I; Lechner, Evelyn; Mair, Rudolf; Hofer, Anna; Sames-Dolzer, Eva; Tulzer, Gerald

2008-12-01

The ideal age for correction of tetralogy of Fallot is still under discussion. The aim of this study was to analyze morbidity and mortality in patients who underwent early primary repair of tetralogy of Fallot at the age of less than 4 months and to assess whether neonates, who needed early repair within the first 4 weeks of life, faced an increased risk. From 1995 to 2006, 90 consecutive patients with tetralogy of Fallot and pulmonary stenosis underwent early primary repair. Patient charts were analyzed retrospectively for two groups: group A, 25 neonates younger than 28 days who needed early operation owing to duct-dependent pulmonary circulation or severe hypoxemia; and group B, 65 infants younger than 4 months of age who underwent elective early repair. There was no 30-day mortality; late mortality was 2% after a median follow-up time of 4.7 years. Seven of 88 patients (8%) needed reoperation and twelve of 88 patients (14%) needed reintervention. Groups A and B did not differ significantly in terms of intensive care unit stay, days of mechanical ventilation, overall hospital stay, major or minor complications, or reoperation. Significant differences were found in a more frequent use of a transannular patch (p = 0.045) and more reinterventions (p = 0.046) in group A. Early primary repair of tetralogy of Fallot can be performed safely and effectively in infants younger than 4 months of age and even in neonates younger than 28 days with duct-dependent pulmonary circulation or severe hypoxemia.

Host age modulates parasite infectivity, virulence and reproduction.

PubMed

Izhar, Rony; Ben-Ami, Frida

2015-07-01

Host age is one of the most striking differences among hosts within most populations, but there is very little data on how age-dependent effects impact ecological and evolutionary dynamics of both the host and the parasite. Here, we examined the influence of host age (juveniles, young and old adults) at parasite exposure on host susceptibility, fecundity and survival as well as parasite transmission, using two clones of the water flea Daphnia magna and two clones of its bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa. Younger D. magna were more susceptible to infection than older ones, regardless of host or parasite clone. Also, younger-infected D. magna became castrated faster than older hosts, but host and parasite clone effects contributed to this trait as well. Furthermore, the early-infected D. magna produced considerably more parasite transmission stages than late-infected ones, while host age at exposure did not affect virulence as it is defined in models (host mortality). When virulence is defined more broadly as the negative effects of infection on host fitness, by integrating the parasitic effects on host fecundity and mortality, then host age at exposure seems to slide along a negative relationship between host and parasite fitness. Thus, the virulence-transmission trade-off differs strongly among age classes, which in turn affects predictions of optimal virulence. Age-dependent effects on host susceptibility, virulence and parasite transmission could pose an important challenge for experimental and theoretical studies of infectious disease dynamics and disease ecology. Our results present a call for a more explicit stage-structured theory for disease, which will incorporate age-dependent epidemiological parameters. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and respiratory disease mortality in Shenyang, China: a 12-year population-based retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Dong, Guang-Hui; Zhang, Pengfei; Sun, Baijun; Zhang, Liwen; Chen, Xi; Ma, Nannan; Yu, Fei; Guo, Huimin; Huang, Hui; Lee, Yungling Leo; Tang, Naijun; Chen, Jie

2012-01-01

In China, both the levels and patterns of outdoor air pollution have altered dramatically with the rapid economic development and urbanization over the past two decades. However, few studies have investigated the association of outdoor air pollution with respiratory mortality, especially in the high pollution range. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 9,941 residents aged ≥35 years old in Shenyang, China, to examine the association between outdoor air pollutants [particulate matter <10 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2))] and mortality using 12 years of data. We applied extended Cox proportional hazards modeling with time-dependent covariates to respiratory mortality. Analyses were also stratified by age, sex, educational level, smoking status, personal income, occupational exposure and body mass index (BMI) to examine the association of air pollution with mortality. We found significant associations between PM(10) and NO(2) levels and respiratory disease mortality. Our analysis found a relative risk of 1.67 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.60-1.74] and 2.97 (95% CI 2.69-3.27) for respiratory mortality per 10 µg/m(3) increase in PM(10) and NO(2), respectively. The effects of air pollution were more apparent in women than in men. Age, sex, educational level, smoking status, personal income, occupational exposure, BMI and exercise frequency influenced the relationship between outdoor PM(10) and NO(2) and mortality. For SO(2), only smoking, little regular exercise and BMI above 18.5 influenced the relationship with mortality. These data contribute to the scientific literature on the long-term effects of air pollution for the high-exposure settings typical in developing countries. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The economic impact of prospective population changes in advanced industrial countries: an historical perspective.

PubMed

Easterlin, R A

1991-11-01

Demographic projections to the year 2050 for advanced industrial nations, implying low or negative population growth and a sharp rise in old age dependency, have created concerns about the long-term economic outlook in these countries. An analysis of these projections in the light of the demographic and economic experience of the past century raises doubt about these concerns. There is little empirical evidence that declining population growth has slowed the rate of economic growth. Although the burden of aged dependents will reach a new high, the projected total dependency rate is not out of line with prior experience. Thus, the ability of the working population to shoulder the burden of higher taxes to support programs for older dependents will be greater because of reduced needs to support younger dependents. This conclusion holds for a number of variant projections, the only clear exception being one that implies a mortality revolution at older ages.

Electromagnetic field therapy delays cellular senescence and death by enhancement of the heat shock response.

PubMed

Perez, Felipe P; Zhou, Ximing; Morisaki, Jorge; Jurivich, Donald

2008-04-01

Hormesis may result when mild repetitive stress increases cellular defense against diverse injuries. This process may also extend in vitro cellular proliferative life span as well as delay and reverse some of the age-dependent changes in both replicative and non-replicative cells. This study evaluated the potential hormetic effect of non-thermal repetitive electromagnetic field shock (REMFS) and its impact on cellular aging and mortality in primary human T lymphocytes and fibroblast cell lines. Unlike previous reports employing electromagnetic radiation, this study used a long wave length, low energy, and non-thermal REMFS (50MHz/0.5W) for various therapeutic regimens. The primary outcomes examined were age-dependent morphological changes in cells over time, cellular death prevention, and stimulation of the heat shock response. REMFS achieved several biological effects that modified the aging process. REMFS extended the total number of population doublings of mouse fibroblasts and contributed to youthful morphology of cells near their replicative lifespan. REMFS also enhanced cellular defenses of human T cells as reflected in lower cell mortality when compared to non-treated T cells. To determine the mechanism of REMFS-induced effects, analysis of the cellular heat shock response revealed Hsp90 release from the heat shock transcription factor (HSF1). Furthermore, REMFS increased HSF1 phosphorylation, enhanced HSF1-DNA binding, and improved Hsp70 expression relative to non-REMFS-treated cells. These results show that non-thermal REMFS activates an anti-aging hormetic effect as well as reduces cell mortality during lethal stress. Because the REMFS configuration employed in this study can potentially be applied to whole body therapy, prospects for translating these data into clinical interventions for Alzheimer's disease and other degenerative conditions with aging are discussed.

Timing and location of mortality of fledgling, subadult, and adult California Gulls

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pugesek, B.H.; Diem, K.L.

2008-01-01

We investigated patterns of mortality during post-breeding migrations of California Gulls (Larus californicus) nesting near Laramie, Wyoming, USA. We used 151 recoveries and 647 sightings of banded and patagially-marked gulls to compare ratios of mortalities to observations of live birds (1) during four time periods (early and late fall migration, winter, and spring migration), (2) at two locations (Pacific coast and inland), and (3) among three age-classes of gulls (fledglings, 1- and 2-year-olds, and breeding-age adults). Mortality rates were higher in inland areas (35%) than in coastal areas (15%) and were dependent on season within inland areas, but not in coastal areas. Mortality in inland areas during early fall (21%) was comparable with that in coastal areas (13%) but was higher during late fall (68 vs. 13%) and spring migration (46 vs. 17%). Both fledgling (71%) and adult (64%) gulls experienced high mortality rates during late fall migration, possibly because some gulls were too weak to make their way to the Pacific coast and became trapped by poor weather conditions. Adult gulls also experienced high mortality inland during spring migration; few subadults made the costly migration to and from the breeding area. Some adults also skipped breeding and remained in coastal areas during the breeding season.

Quantifying the influence of safe road systems and legal licensing age on road mortality among young adolescents: steps towards system thinking.

PubMed

Twisk, Divera; Commandeur, Jacques J F; Bos, Niels; Shope, Jean T; Kok, Gerjo

2015-01-01

Based on existing literature, a system thinking approach was used to set up a conceptual model on the interrelationships among the components influencing adolescent road mortality, distinguishing between components at the individual level and at the system level. At the individual level the role of risk behaviour (sometimes deliberate and sometimes from inexperience or other non-deliberate causes) in adolescent road mortality is well documented. However, little is known about the extent to which the 'road system' itself may also have an impact on younger adolescents' road mortality. This, by providing a safe or unsafe road environment for all road users (System-induced exposure) and by allowing access to high-risk vehicles at a young or older age through the legal licensing age. This study seeks to explore these relationships by analysing the extent to which the road mortality of 10 to 17 year olds in various jurisdictions can be predicted from the System-induced Exposure (SiE) in a jurisdiction and from its legal licensing age to drive motor vehicles. SiE was operationalized as the number of road fatalities per 10(5) inhabitants/all ages together, but excluding the 10 to 17 year olds. Data on road fatalities during the years 2001 through 2008 were obtained from the OECD International Road Traffic Accident Database (IRTAD) and from the USA NHTSA's Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) database for 29 early and 10 late licensing jurisdictions. Linear mixed models were fitted with annual 'Adolescent road mortality per capita' for 2001 through 2008 as the dependent variable, and time-dependent 'SiE' and time-independent 'Licensing system' as predictor variables. To control for different levels of motorisation, the time-dependent variable 'Annual per capita vehicle distance travelled' was used as a covariate. Licensing system of a jurisdiction was entered as a categorical predictor variable with late licensing countries as a baseline group. The study found support for the protective effects of SiE on adolescent safety. If SiE increased by one unit, the mortality rate of 10 to 17 year olds increased by 0.487 units. No support was found for a protective effect of late licensing for this age group. Thus, compared to young adolescents who are allowed to drive motor vehicles in early licensing jurisdictions, late licensing does not provide extra protection for pre-license adolescents. This finding is probably the result of the high risks associated with alternative transport modes, such as moped riding and bicycling. Also, the fact that the study only included risks to young adolescents themselves and did not include the risks they might pose to other road users and passengers may have contributed to this finding, because such risks are greater when driving a motor vehicle than riding a moped or a bicycle. Therefore, to advance our understanding of the impact of licensing systems, more study is needed into the benefits of early or late licensing, thereby considering these wider effects as well. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The age structure of selected countries in the ESCAP region.

PubMed

Hong, S

1982-01-01

The study objective was to examine the age structure of selected countries in the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region, using available data and frequently applied indices such as the population pyramid, aged-child ratio, and median age. Based on the overall picture of the age structure thus obtained, age trends and their implication for the near future were arrived at. Countries are grouped into 4 types based on the fertility and mortality levels. Except for Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, the age structure in the 18 ESCAP region countries changed comparatively little over the 1950-80 period. The largest structural change occurred in Singapore, where the proportion of children under age 15 in the population declined significantly from 41-27%, while that of persons 65 years and older more than doubled. This was due primarily to the marked decline in fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 6.7-1.8 during the period. Hong Kong also had a similar major transformation during the same period: the proportion of the old age population increased 2 1/2 times, from 2.5-6.3%. The age structures of the 18 ESCAP countries varied greatly by country. 10 countries of the 2 high fertility and mortality types showed a similar young age structural pattern, i.e., they have higher dependency ratios, a higher proportion of children under 15 years, a lower proportion of population 65 years and older, lower aged-child ratios, and younger median ages than the average countries in the less developed regions of the world. With minimal changes over the 1950-80 period, the gap between these countries and the average of the less developed regions widened. Unlike these 10 (mostly South Asian) countries, moderately low fertility and mortality countries (China, Korea, and Sri Lanka) are located between the world average and the less developed region in most of the indices, particularly during the last decade. Although their rate of population aging is not rapid, they are moving toward it. 5 countries of the low fertility and mortality group basically showed an age structure in between the world average and that of the more developed region. Notable exceptions were Singapore and Hong Kong, which showed younger age structures than the less developed regions in terms of dependency ratios during 1950-60. On an average, the majority of ESCAP countries still have a young population.

Trajectories of body mass index among Canadian seniors and associated mortality risk.

PubMed

Wang, Meng; Yi, Yanqing; Roebothan, Barbara; Colbourne, Jennifer; Maddalena, Victor; Sun, Guang; Wang, Peizhong Peter

2017-12-04

This study aims to characterize the heterogeneity in BMI trajectories and evaluate how different BMI trajectories predict mortality risk in Canadian seniors. Data came from the Canadian National Population Health Survey (NPHS, 1994-2011) and 1480 individuals aged 65-79 years with at least four BMI records were included in this study. Group-based trajectory model was used to identify distinct subgroups of longitudinal trajectories of BMI measured over 19 years for men and women. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between BMI trajectories and mortality risks. Distinct trajectory patterns were found for men and women: 'Normal Weight-Down'(N-D), 'Overweight-Normal weight' (OV-N), 'Obese I-Down' (OB I-D), and 'Obese II- Down' (OB II-D) for women; and 'Normal Weight-Down' (N-D), 'Overweight-Normal weight' (OV-N), 'Overweight-Stable' (OV-S), and 'Obese-Stable' (OB-S) for men. Comparing with OV-N, men in the OV-S group had the lowest mortality risk followed by the N-D (HR = 1.66) and OB-S (HR = 1.98) groups, after adjusting for covariates. Compared with OV-N, women in the OB II-D group with three or more chronic health conditions had higher mortality risk (HR = 1.61); however, women in OB II-D had lower risk (HR = 0.56) if they had less than three conditions. The course of BMI over time in Canadian seniors appears to follow one of four different patterns depending on gender. The findings suggest that men who were overweight at age 65 and lost weight over time had the lowest mortality risk. Interestingly, obese women with decreasing BMI have different mortality risks, depending on their chronic health conditions. The findings provide new insights concerning the associations between BMI and mortality risk.

Differences between immigrants at various durations of residence and host population in all-cause mortality, Canada 1991-2006.

PubMed

Omariba, D Walter Rasugu; Ng, Edward; Vissandjée, Bilkis

2014-01-01

We used data from the 1991-2006 Canadian Census Mortality and Cancer Follow-up Study to compare all-cause mortality for immigrants with that of the Canadian-born population. The study addressed two related questions. First, do immigrants have a mortality advantage over the Canadian-born? Second, if immigrants have a mortality advantage, does it persist as their duration of residence increases? The analysis fitted sex-stratified hazard regression models for the overall sample and for selected countries of birth (UK, China, India, Philippines, and the Caribbean). Predictors were assessed at baseline. Mortality was lower among immigrants than the Canadian-born even after adjusting for a selected group of socio-demographic and socio-economic factors. The mortality differences persisted even after long residence in Canada, but appeared to be dependent on the age of the individual and the country of origin. Interpreted in light of known explanations of immigrant mortality advantage, the results mostly reflect selection effects.

Case-control Studies on the Effectiveness of Breast Cancer Screening: Insights from the UK Age Trial.

PubMed

van der Waal, Daniëlle; Broeders, Mireille J M; Verbeek, André L M; Duffy, Stephen W; Moss, Sue M

2015-07-01

Ongoing breast cancer screening programs can only be evaluated using observational study designs. Most studies have observed a reduction in breast cancer mortality, but design differences appear to have resulted in different estimates. Direct comparison of case-control and trial analyses gives more insight into this variation. Here, we performed case-control analyses within the randomized UK Age Trial. The Age Trial assessed the effect of screening on breast cancer mortality in women ages 40-49 years. In our approach, case subjects were defined as breast cancer deaths between trial entry (1991-1997) and 2004. Women were ages 39-41 years at entry. For every case subject, five control subjects were selected. All case subjects were included in analyses of screening invitation (356 case subjects, 1,780 controls), whereas analyses of attendance were restricted to women invited to screening (105 case subjects, 525 age-matched controls). Odds ratios (OR) were estimated with conditional logistic regression. We used and compared two methods to correct for self-selection bias. Screening invitation resulted in a breast cancer mortality reduction of 17% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -36%, +6%), similar to trial results. Different exposure definitions and self-selection adjustments influenced the observed breast cancer mortality reduction. Depending on the method, "ever screened" appeared to be associated with a small reduction (OR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.40, 1.89) or no reduction (OR: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.48, 2.14) using the two methods of correction. Recent attendance resulted in an adjusted mortality reduction of 36% (95% CI: -69%, +31%) or 45% (95% CI: -71%, +5%). Observational studies, and particularly case-control studies, are an important monitoring tool for breast cancer screening programs. The focus should be on diminishing bias in observational studies and gaining a better understanding of the influence of study design on estimates of mortality reduction.

Complex demographic heterogeneity from anthropogenic impacts in a coastal marine predator.

PubMed

Oro, Daniel; Álvarez, David; Velando, Alberto

2018-04-01

Environmental drivers, including anthropogenic impacts, affect vital rates of organisms. Nevertheless, the influence of these drivers may depend on the physical features of the habitat and how they affect life history strategies depending on individual covariates such as age and sex. Here, the long-term monitoring (1994-2014) of marked European Shags in eight colonies in two regions with different ecological features, such as foraging habitat, allowed us to test several biological hypotheses about how survival changes by age and sex in each region by means of multi-event capture-recapture modeling. Impacts included fishing practices and bycatch, invasive introduced carnivores and the severe Prestige oil spill. Adult survival was constant but, unexpectedly, it was different between sexes. This difference was opposite in each region. The impact of the oil spill on survival was important only for adults (especially for females) in one region and lasted a single year. Juvenile survival was time dependent but this variability was not synchronized between regions, suggesting a strong signal of regional environmental variability. Mortality due to bycatch was also different between sex, age and region. Interestingly the results showed that the size of the fishing fleet is not necessarily a good proxy for assessing the impact of bycatch mortality, which may be more dependent on the fishing grounds and the fishing gears employed in each season of the year. Anthropogenic impacts affected survival differently by age and sex, which was expected for a long-lived organism with sexual size dimorphism. Strikingly, these differences varied depending on the region, indicating that habitat heterogeneity is demographically important to how environmental variability (including anthropogenic impacts) and resilience influence population dynamics. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

The association between the supply of primary care physicians and population health outcomes in Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Juhyun; Park, Sangmin; Choi, Kyunghyun; Kwon, Soon-Man

2010-10-01

Several studies reported that primary care improves health outcomes for populations. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between the supply of primary care physicians and population health outcomes in Korea. Data were extracted from the 2007 report of the Health Insurance Review, the 2005 report from the Korean National Statistical Office, and the 2008 Korean Community Health Survey. The dependent variables were age-adjusted all-cause and disease-specific mortality rates, and independent variables were the supply of primary care physicians, the ratio of primary care physicians to specialists, the number of beds, socioeconomic factors (unemployment rate, local tax, education), population (population size, proportion of the elderly over age 65), and health behaviors (smoking, exercise, using seat belts rates). We used multivariate linear regression as well as ANOVA and t tests. A higher number of primary care physicians was associated with lower all-cause mortality, cancer mortality, and cardiovascular mortality. However, the ratio of primary care physicians to specialists was not related to all-cause mortality. In addition, the relationship between socioeconomic variables and mortality rates was similar in strength to the relationship between the supply of primary care physicians and mortality rates. Accident mortality, suicide mortality, infection mortality, and perinatal mortality were not related to the supply of primary care physicians. The supply of primary care physicians is associated with improved health outcomes, especially in chronic diseases and cancer. However, other variables such as the socioeconomic factors and population factors seem to have a more significant influence on these outcomes.

Onset of mortality increase with age and age trajectories of mortality from all diseases in the four Nordic countries.

PubMed

Dolejs, Josef; Marešová, Petra

2017-01-01

The answer to the question "At what age does aging begin?" is tightly related to the question "Where is the onset of mortality increase with age?" Age affects mortality rates from all diseases differently than it affects mortality rates from nonbiological causes. Mortality increase with age in adult populations has been modeled by many authors, and little attention has been given to mortality decrease with age after birth. Nonbiological causes are excluded, and the category "all diseases" is studied. It is analyzed in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the period 1994-2011, and all possible models are screened. Age trajectories of mortality are analyzed separately: before the age category where mortality reaches its minimal value and after the age category. Resulting age trajectories from all diseases showed a strong minimum, which was hidden in total mortality. The inverse proportion between mortality and age fitted in 54 of 58 cases before mortality minimum. The Gompertz model with two parameters fitted as mortality increased with age in 17 of 58 cases after mortality minimum, and the Gompertz model with a small positive quadratic term fitted data in the remaining 41 cases. The mean age where mortality reached minimal value was 8 (95% confidence interval 7.05-8.95) years. The figures depict an age where the human population has a minimal risk of death from biological causes. Inverse proportion and the Gompertz model fitted data on both sides of the mortality minimum, and three parameters determined the shape of the age-mortality trajectory. Life expectancy should be determined by the two standard Gompertz parameters and also by the single parameter in the model c/x. All-disease mortality represents an alternative tool to study the impact of age. All results are based on published data.

Health consequences of road accidents: insights from local health authority registries.

PubMed

Bertoncello, C; Furlan, P; Baldovin, T; Marcolongo, A; Casale, P; Cocchio, S; Buja, A; Baldo, V

2013-01-01

Road accidents are a major public health problem that affect all age groups but their impact is most striking among the young. The aim of this study is to quantify the burden of road traffic injuries, their mortality and direct in-patient economic costs and to identify the age classes at highest risk for severe road traffic injuries, through analysis of data collected by information systems of an Italian Local Health Authority. The study was conducted in a Local Health Authority of Veneto Region. Injured people were selected from Emergency Department (2006-2010). Data were linked to the Hospital Information System for hospital admissions and to the Mortality Registry to check 30-day mortality. The direct costs associated to hospitalizations were estimated through Diagnosis Related Group reimbursement rates. Multivariate analysis was performed using hospitalization and mortality as the dependent variables and gender, age, day of week when accident occurred as the independent variables. Traffic injury, hospitalization and mortality incidence rates were calculated by gender and age per 100,000 residents per year. The road traffic injuries were 9,192, decreasing from 2,112 in 2006 to 1,980 in 2010. Among injured persons 55.3% were male (68.1% among 15-19 age class); 41.7% young people aged 15-34 years (43.9% among male, 39.0% among female). Total hospitalisation rate was 5.9%. Overall mortality rate was 0.3% (0.9% among aged 65 or older). The cost of hospital admission was euro 2,742,505 (hospitalization mean cost euro 5,097). Risk of hospitalization and death was higher in male, in elderly and during week end. Young people aged 15-19 had the highest incidence of visits (2,258.4 per 100,000) and high hospitalisation weekend and mortality rates (respectively 101.5 and 8.5). Analysis at local level, using current data sources, permits to estimate the burden of injuries caused by road-traffic, to describe the characteristics of injured persons and finally to estimate costs of care. All this information could be used to make the population aware of its own risk for road accidents. Linkage of these data with police and transport data is required to focus prevention on higher risk groups and to adopt effective local road safety strategies.

Growth model for uneven-aged loblolly pine stands : simulations and management implications

Treesearch

C.-R. Lin; J. Buongiorno; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; K. E. Skog

1998-01-01

A density-dependent matrix growth model of uneven-aged loblolly pine stands was developed with data from 991 permanent plots in the southern United States. The model predicts the number of pine, soft hardwood, and hard hardwood trees in 13 diameter classes, based on equations for ingrowth, upgrowth, and mortality. Projections of 6 to 10 years agreed with the growth...

An examination of the maternal social determinants influencing under-5 mortality in Nigeria: Evidence from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic Health Survey.

PubMed

Blackstone, Sarah R; Nwaozuru, Ucheoma; Iwelunmor, Juliet

2017-06-01

Nigeria is the second largest contributor to child (under-5) mortality in the world, with an average of 128 child deaths per 1000 live births, and is not on track to meet the Millennium Development Goals of reducing childhood mortality rates to 64 per 1000. Data from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) report were analysed to explore the relationship between structural and intermediary maternal characteristics and likelihood of childhood mortality. Binary logistic regressions for the first three reported births were conducted with childhood mortality (e.g. death before 59 months of age) as a dependent variable. Maternal characteristics investigated included age, education, region, antenatal care, and breastfeeding. Significant factors for birth 1 included region of residence, breastfeeding, literacy, wealth, number of children, and antenatal care. For second birth, not breastfeeding and attending antenatal care with a nurse were negatively associated with survival. For third birth, wealth and number of children were positively associated with survival. The results point to some maternal characteristics that may be influential in childhood mortality. However, community and systems level factors should be accounted for in interventions, as maternal characteristics do not offer a full explanation for why children are dying so young in Nigeria.

[Global self-rated health and mortality in older people].

PubMed

Moreno, Ximena; Huerta, Martín; Albala, Cecilia

2014-01-01

To explore the association between global self-rated health and mortality in older people. A systematic review was performed. The inclusion criteria were longitudinal studies that assessed self-rated health with a single general question and samples of community-dwelling persons aged 60 years or more. Electronic databases were searched and references were reviewed. We selected 18 studies published between 1993 and 2011. Six out of seven studies that analyzed men and women found a higher risk of dying among persons who rated their health as poor; the most frequent covariables were age, gender, chronic diseases, and functional status. Half of the studies that analyzed only men or women found a significant association. The effect of self-reported health on mortality was observed among people younger than 75 years. Results were not dependent on the length of follow-up. The results confirm previous findings suggesting that a negative self-rating of general health predicts mortality. The mechanisms through which this indicator may predict mortality among older people could differ in men and women and need to be elucidated. The role of depression should be investigated, considering that the effect of self-rated health on mortality was not present when depression was included. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Epidemiology of patients hospitalised for pneumonia in 2011: a prospective multicentre cohort study.

PubMed

Wenisch, Christoph; Weiss, Günter; Lechner, Arno; Meilinger, Michael; Rittler, Karl; Muzatko, Nina; Pomogyi, Beate; Kutilek, Mathilde; Bellmann-Weiler, Rosa; Fürst, Ursula-Maria; Andorfer, Alexander; Wenisch, Judith Maria

2013-10-01

This study was conducted to investigate the age dependent epidemiology of pneumonia and risk factors for mortality.The data were derived from the Austrian Pneumonia Network (APNET), comprising nine Departments for Internal Medicine with a total of 1,011 hospital beds. All inpatients diagnosed with pneumonia during 2011 were followed until discharge. Identification of microorganisms was performed according to local standard methods. Data of patients < 65 years and ≥ 65 years were compared by Mann-Whitney and the Chi-square tests. Risk factors for hospital mortality were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses.Overall, 1,956 patients were included. The hospital mortality was 10.4 %, and was higher in patients ≥ 65 (12.7 %) than in patients < 65 years of age (5.0 %; p < 0.001). Streptococcus (S.) pneumoniae was the most important pathogen. Enterobacteriacaeae were revealed significantly more often in patients ≥ 65 years. Age ≥ 65 years, chronic heart failure (CHF) and neurological disease increased the risk of hospital mortality 1.96 (95 % CI 1.19-3.20), 1.59 (95 % CI 1.10-2.29), and 1.7 (95 % CI 1.19-2.41)-fold, respectively.In conclusion, pneumonia patients with CHF, neurological disease and age ≥ 65 years could benefit from intensified care due to increased risk of in-hospital death.

Predictors of Long-Term Mortality in Oldest Old Patients (90+) Hospitalized to Medical Wards via the Emergency Department: The SAFES Cohort.

PubMed

de Boissieu, P; Mahmoudi, R; Hentzien, M; Toquet, S; Novella, J-L; Blanchard, F; Jolly, D; Dramé, M

2015-06-01

To identify risk factors for long-term mortality in patients aged 90 years and over who are admitted to hospital through the emergency department. Prospective cohort study (SAFES cohort; Sujet Agé Fragile - Évaluation Suivi). 8 university teaching hospitals and one regional, non-academic hospital in France. Among 1306 patients in the SAFES cohort, 291 patients aged 90 or over were included. At inclusion, we recorded socio-demographic data (age, sex, level of education, living alone or in an institution, number of children, presence of helper/caregiver), and data from geriatric evaluation (dependence status, risk of depression, dementia, delirium, nutritional status, walking disorders, risk of falls, comorbidities, risk of pressure sores). Vital status at 36 months was obtained from the treating physician, the general practitioner, administrative registers, or during follow-up consultations. Among 291 patients included, 190 (65.3%) had died at 36 months. Risk factors for mortality at 36 months identified by multivariate analysis were risk of malnutrition (HR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.3, p=0.004) and delirium (HR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.3, p=0.01). Risk of malnutrition and presence of delirium are risk factors for mortality at 36 months in subjects aged 90 years and over hospitalized through the emergency department.

Predictive scoring model of mortality after surgical or endovascular revascularization in patients with critical limb ischemia.

PubMed

Shiraki, Tatsuya; Iida, Osamu; Takahara, Mitsuyoshi; Okamoto, Shin; Kitano, Ikurou; Tsuji, Yoshihiko; Terashi, Hiroto; Uematsu, Masaaki

2014-08-01

The latest guideline points to life expectancy of <2 years as the main determinant in revascularization modality selection (bypass surgery [BSX] or endovascular therapy [EVT]) in patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI). This study examined predictors and a predictive scoring model of 2-year mortality after revascularization. We performed Cox proportional hazards regression analysis of data in a retrospective database, the Bypass and Endovascular therapy Against Critical limb ischemia from Hyogo (BEACH) registry, of 459 consecutive CLI patients who underwent revascularization (396 EVT and 63 BSX cases between January 2007 and December 2011) to determine predictors of 2-year mortality. The predictive performance of the score was assessed with the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve. Of 459 CLI patients (mean age, 72 ± 10 years; 64% male; 49% nonambulatory status, 68% diabetes mellitus, 47% on regular dialysis, and 18% rest pain and 82% tissue loss as treatment indication), 84 died within 2 years after revascularization. In a multivariate model, age >75 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-2.85), nonambulatory status (HR, 5.32; 95% CI, 2.96-9.56), regular dialysis (HR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.10-3.26), and ejection fraction <50% (HR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.48-4.20) were independent predictors of 2-year mortality. The area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve for the developed predictive BEACH score was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.76-0.86). Predictors of 2-year mortality after EVT or BSX in CLI patients included age >75 years, nonambulatory status, regular dialysis, and ejection fraction <50%. The BEACH score derived from these predictors allows risk stratification of CLI patients undergoing revascularization. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Frailty in the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study: deficit accumulation in a male cohort followed to 90% mortality.

PubMed

Armstrong, Joshua J; Mitnitski, Arnold; Launer, Lenore J; White, Lon R; Rockwood, Kenneth

2015-01-01

A frailty index (FI) based on the accumulation of deficits typically has a submaximal limit at about 0.70. The objectives of this study were to examine how population characteristics of the FI change in the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study cohort, which has been followed to near-complete mortality. In particular, we were interested to see if the limit was exceeded. Secondary analysis of six waves of the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study. Men (n = 3,801) aged 71-93 years at baseline (1991) were followed until death (N = 3,455; 90.9%) or July 2012. FIs were calculated across six waves and the distribution at each wave was evaluated. Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox proportional hazard models were performed to examine the relationship of frailty with mortality. At each wave, frailty was nonlinearly associated with age, with acceleration in later years. The distributions of the FIs were skewed with long right tails. Despite the increasing mortality in each successive wave, the 99% submaximal limit never exceeded 0.65. The risk of death increased with increasing values of the FI (eg, the hazard rate increased by 1.44 [95% CI = 1.39-1.49] with each increment in the baseline FI grouping). Depending on the wave, the median survival of people with FI more than 0.5 ranged 0.84-2.04 years. Even in a study population followed to almost complete mortality, the limit to deficit accumulation did not exceed 0.65, confirming a quantifiable, maximum number of health deficits that older men can tolerate. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Parental Incarceration and Child Mortality in Denmark

PubMed Central

Andersen, Signe Hald; Lee, Hedwig; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

2014-01-01

Objectives. We used Danish registry data to examine the association between parental incarceration and child mortality risk. Methods. We used a sample of all Danish children born in 1991 linked with parental information. We conducted discrete-time survival analysis separately for boys (n = 30 146) and girls (n = 28 702) to estimate the association of paternal and maternal incarceration with child mortality, controlling for parental sociodemographic characteristics. We followed the children until age 20 years or death, whichever came first. Results. Results indicated a positive association between paternal and maternal imprisonment and male child mortality. Paternal imprisonment was associated with lower child mortality risks for girls. The relationship between maternal imprisonment and female child mortality changed directions depending on the model, suggesting no clear association. Conclusions. These results indicate that the incarceration of a parent may influence child mortality but that it is important to consider the gender of both the child and the incarcerated parent. PMID:24432916

SEPARABLE FACTOR ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS TO MORTALITY DATA

PubMed Central

Fosdick, Bailey K.; Hoff, Peter D.

2014-01-01

Human mortality data sets can be expressed as multiway data arrays, the dimensions of which correspond to categories by which mortality rates are reported, such as age, sex, country and year. Regression models for such data typically assume an independent error distribution or an error model that allows for dependence along at most one or two dimensions of the data array. However, failing to account for other dependencies can lead to inefficient estimates of regression parameters, inaccurate standard errors and poor predictions. An alternative to assuming independent errors is to allow for dependence along each dimension of the array using a separable covariance model. However, the number of parameters in this model increases rapidly with the dimensions of the array and, for many arrays, maximum likelihood estimates of the covariance parameters do not exist. In this paper, we propose a submodel of the separable covariance model that estimates the covariance matrix for each dimension as having factor analytic structure. This model can be viewed as an extension of factor analysis to array-valued data, as it uses a factor model to estimate the covariance along each dimension of the array. We discuss properties of this model as they relate to ordinary factor analysis, describe maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation methods, and provide a likelihood ratio testing procedure for selecting the factor model ranks. We apply this methodology to the analysis of data from the Human Mortality Database, and show in a cross-validation experiment how it outperforms simpler methods. Additionally, we use this model to impute mortality rates for countries that have no mortality data for several years. Unlike other approaches, our methodology is able to estimate similarities between the mortality rates of countries, time periods and sexes, and use this information to assist with the imputations. PMID:25489353

Modelling infant mortality rate in Central Java, Indonesia use generalized poisson regression method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prahutama, Alan; Sudarno

2018-05-01

The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths under one year of age occurring among the live births in a given geographical area during a given year, per 1,000 live births occurring among the population of the given geographical area during the same year. This problem needs to be addressed because it is an important element of a country’s economic development. High infant mortality rate will disrupt the stability of a country as it relates to the sustainability of the population in the country. One of regression model that can be used to analyze the relationship between dependent variable Y in the form of discrete data and independent variable X is Poisson regression model. Recently The regression modeling used for data with dependent variable is discrete, among others, poisson regression, negative binomial regression and generalized poisson regression. In this research, generalized poisson regression modeling gives better AIC value than poisson regression. The most significant variable is the Number of health facilities (X1), while the variable that gives the most influence to infant mortality rate is the average breastfeeding (X9).

Age and Outcomes of Primary Prevention Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators in Patients With Nonischemic Systolic Heart Failure.

PubMed

Elming, Marie Bayer; Nielsen, Jens C; Haarbo, Jens; Videbæk, Lars; Korup, Eva; Signorovitch, James; Olesen, Line Lisbeth; Hildebrandt, Per; Steffensen, Flemming H; Bruun, Niels E; Eiskjær, Hans; Brandes, Axel; Thøgersen, Anna M; Gustafsson, Finn; Egstrup, Kenneth; Videbæk, Regitze; Hassager, Christian; Svendsen, Jesper Hastrup; Høfsten, Dan E; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Pehrson, Steen; Køber, Lars; Thune, Jens Jakob

2017-11-07

The DANISH study (Danish Study to Assess the Efficacy of ICDs [Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators] in Patients With Non-Ischemic Systolic Heart Failure on Mortality) did not demonstrate an overall effect on all-cause mortality with ICD implantation. However, the prespecified subgroup analysis suggested a possible age-dependent association between ICD implantation and mortality with survival benefit seen only in the youngest patients. The nature of this relationship between age and outcome of a primary prevention ICD in patients with nonischemic systolic heart failure warrants further investigation. All 1116 patients from the DANISH study were included in this prespecified subgroup analysis. We assessed the relationship between ICD implantation and mortality by age, and an optimal age cutoff was estimated nonparametrically with selection impact curves. Modes of death were divided into sudden cardiac death and nonsudden death and compared between patients younger and older than this age cutoff with the use of χ 2 analysis. Median age of the study population was 63 years (range, 21-84 years). There was a linearly decreasing relationship between ICD and mortality with age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.003-1.06; P =0.03). An optimal age cutoff for ICD implantation was present at ≤70 years. There was an association between reduced all-cause mortality and ICD in patients ≤70 years of age (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.51-0.96; P =0.03) but not in patients >70 years of age (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.68-1.62; P =0.84). For patients ≤70 years old, the sudden cardiac death rate was 1.8 (95% CI, 1.3-2.5) and nonsudden death rate was 2.7 (95% CI, 2.1-3.5) events per 100 patient-years, whereas for patients >70 years old, the sudden cardiac death rate was 1.6 (95% CI, 0.8-3.2) and nonsudden death rate was 5.4 (95% CI, 3.7-7.8) events per 100 patient-years. This difference in modes of death between the 2 age groups was statistically significant ( P =0.01). In patients with systolic heart failure not caused by ischemic heart disease, the association between the ICD and survival decreased linearly with increasing age. In this study population, an age cutoff for ICD implantation at ≤70 years yielded the highest survival for the population as a whole. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00542945. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Excess Mortality in Treated and Untreated Hyperthyroidism Is Related to Cumulative Periods of Low Serum TSH.

PubMed

Lillevang-Johansen, Mads; Abrahamsen, Bo; Jørgensen, Henrik Løvendahl; Brix, Thomas Heiberg; Hegedüs, Laszlo

2017-07-01

Cumulative time-dependent excess mortality in hyperthyroid patients has been suggested. However, the effect of antithyroid treatment on mortality, especially in subclinical hyperthyroidism, remains unclarified. We investigated the association between hyperthyroidism and mortality in both treated and untreated hyperthyroid individuals. Register-based cohort study of 235,547 individuals who had at least one serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) measurement in the period 1995 to 2011 (7.3 years median follow-up). Hyperthyroidism was defined as at least two measurements of low serum TSH. Mortality rates for treated and untreated hyperthyroid subjects compared with euthyroid controls were calculated using multivariate Cox regression analyses, controlling for age, sex, and comorbidities. Cumulative periods of decreased serum TSH were analyzed as a time-dependent covariate. Hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was increased in untreated [1.23; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12 to 1.37; P < 0.001], but not in treated, hyperthyroid patients. When including cumulative periods of TSH in the Cox regression analyses, HR for mortality per every 6 months of decreased TSH was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.09 to 1.13; P < 0.0001) in untreated hyperthyroid patients (n = 1137) and 1.13 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.15; P < 0.0001) in treated patients (n = 1656). This corresponds to a 184% and 239% increase in mortality after 5 years of decreased TSH in untreated and treated hyperthyroidism, respectively. Mortality is increased in hyperthyroidism. Cumulative periods of decreased TSH increased mortality in both treated and untreated hyperthyroidism, implying that excess mortality may not be driven by lack of therapy, but rather inability to keep patients euthyroid. Meticulous follow-up during treatment to maintain biochemical euthyroidism may be warranted. Copyright © 2017 by the Endocrine Society

Climate change-associated trends in net biomass change are age dependent in western boreal forests of Canada.

PubMed

Chen, Han Y H; Luo, Yong; Reich, Peter B; Searle, Eric B; Biswas, Shekhar R

2016-09-01

The impacts of climate change on forest net biomass change are poorly understood but critical for predicting forest's contribution to the global carbon cycle. Recent studies show climate change-associated net biomass declines in mature forest plots. The representativeness of these plots for regional forests, however, remains uncertain because we lack an assessment of whether climate change impacts differ with forest age. Using data from plots of varying ages from 17 to 210 years, monitored from 1958 to 2011 in western Canada, we found that climate change has little effect on net biomass change in forests ≤ 40 years of age due to increased growth offsetting increased mortality, but has led to large decreases in older forests due to increased mortality accompanying little growth gain. Our analysis highlights the need to incorporate forest age profiles in examining past and projecting future forest responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Impact of missing data on standardised mortality ratios for acute myocardial infarction: evidence from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) 2004-7.

PubMed

Gale, C P; Cattle, B A; Moore, J; Dawe, H; Greenwood, D C; West, R M

2011-12-01

Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) are often used to depict cardiovascular care. Data missingness, data quality, temporal variation and case-mix can, however, complicate the assessment of clinical performance. To study Primary Care Trust (PCT) 30-day SMRs for STEMI and NSTEMI whilst considering the impact of missing data for age, sex and IMD score. Observational study using data from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) database to generate PCT SMR maps and funnel plots for England, 2004-2007. 217,157 40.4% STEMI and 59.6% NSTEMI. 95% CI 30-day unadjusted mortality: STEMI 5.8% to 6.2%; NSTEMI 6.6% to 6.9%; relative risk, 95% CI 1.14, 1.10 to 1.19. Median (IQR) data missingess by PCT for composite of age, sex and IMD score was 1.4% (0.7% to 2.2%). For STEMI and NSTEMI statistically significant predictors of mortality were mean age (STEMI: P<0.001; NSTEMI: P<0.001), proportion of females (STEMI: P<0.001; NSTEMI: P<0.001) and proportion of missing ages (STEMI: P=0.02; NSTEMI: P<0.001). Proportion of missing sex also predicted 30-day mortality for NSTEMI (P=0.01). Maps of SMRs demonstrated substantial mortality variation, but no evidence of North / South divide. There were significant correlations between STEMI and NSTEMI observed (R² 0.72) and standardised mortality (R² 0.49) rates. PCT data aggregation gave an acceptable model fit in terms of deviance explained. For STEMI there were 33 (21.7%) regions below the 99.8% lower limit of the associated performance funnel plot, and 28 (18.4%) for NSTEMI; the inclusion of missing data did not affect the distribution of SMRs. The proportion of missing data was associated with 30-day mortality for STEMI and NSTEMI, however it did not influence the distribution of PCTs within the funnel plots. There was considerable variation in mortality not attributable to key patient-specific factors, supporting the notion of regional-dependent variation in STEMI and NSTEMI care.

Hypotension, bedridden, leukocytosis, thrombocytopenia and elevated serum creatinine predict mortality in geriatric patients with fever.

PubMed

Chung, Min-Hsien; Chu, Feng-Yuan; Yang, Tzu-Meng; Lin, Hung-Jung; Chen, Jiann-Hwa; Guo, How-Ran; Vong, Si-Chon; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin

2015-07-01

The geriatric population (aged ≥65 years) accounts for 12-24% of all emergency department (ED) visits. Of them, 10% have a fever, 70-90% will be admitted and 7-10% of will die within a month. Therefore, mortality prediction and appropriate disposition after ED treatment are of great concern for geriatric patients with fever. We tried to identify independent mortality predictors of geriatric patients with fever, and combine these predictors to predict their mortality. We enrolled consecutive geriatric patients visiting the ED between 1 June and 21 July 2010 with the following criteria of fever: a tympanic temperature ≥37.2°C or a baseline temperature elevated ≥1.3°C. We used 30-day mortality as the primary end-point. A total of 330 patients were enrolled. Hypotension, bedridden, leukocytosis, thrombocytopenia and serum creatinine >2 mg/dL, but not age, were independently associated with 30-day mortality. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) ranged from 18.2% to 90.9%, 34.7% to 100%, 9.0% to 100% and 94.5% to 98.2%, respectively, depending on how many predictors there were. The 30-day mortality increased with the number of independent mortality predictors. With at least four predictors, 100% of the patients died within 30 days. With none of the predictors, just 1.8% died. These findings might help physicians make decisions about geriatric patients with fever. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Vector competence of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes for filarial nematodes is affected by age and nutrient limitation.

PubMed

Ariani, Cristina V; Juneja, Punita; Smith, Sophia; Tinsley, Matthew C; Jiggins, Francis M

2015-01-01

Mosquitoes are one of the most important vectors of human disease. The ability of mosquitoes to transmit disease is dependent on the age structure of the population, as mosquitoes must survive long enough for the parasites to complete their development and infect another human. Age could have additional effects due to mortality rates and vector competence changing as mosquitoes senesce, but these are comparatively poorly understood. We have investigated these factors using the mosquito Aedes aegypti and the filarial nematode Brugia malayi. Rather than observing any effects of immune senescence, we found that older mosquitoes were more resistant, but this only occurred if they had previously been maintained on a nutrient-poor diet of fructose. Constant blood feeding reversed this decline in vector competence, meaning that the number of parasites remained relatively unchanged as mosquitoes aged. Old females that had been maintained on fructose also experienced a sharp spike in mortality after an infected blood meal ("refeeding syndrome") and few survived long enough for the parasite to develop. Again, this effect was prevented by frequent blood meals. Our results indicate that old mosquitoes may be inefficient vectors due to low vector competence and high mortality, but that frequent blood meals can prevent these effects of age. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Late-career unemployment and all-cause mortality, functional disability and depression among the older adults in Taiwan: A 12-year population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Chu, Wei-Min; Liao, Wen-Chun; Li, Chi-Rong; Lee, Shu-Hsin; Tang, Yih-Jing; Ho, Hsin-En; Lee, Meng-Chih

2016-01-01

To evaluate whether late-career unemployment is associated with increased all-cause mortality, functional disability, and depression among older adults in Taiwan. In this long-term prospective cohort study, data were retrieved from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging. This study was conducted from 1996 to 2007. The complete data from 716 men and 327 women aged 50-64 years were retrieved. Participants were categorized as normally employed or unemployed depending on their employment status in 1996. The cumulative number of unemployment after age 50 was also calculated. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the effect of the association between late-career unemployment and cumulative number of late-career unemployment on all-cause mortality, functional disability, and depression in 2007. The average age of the participants in 1996 was 56.3 years [interquartile range (IQR)=7.0]. A total of 871 participants were in the normally employed group, and 172 participants were in the unemployed group. After adjustment of gender, age, level of education, income, self-rated health and major comorbidities, late-career unemployment was associated with increased all-cause mortality [Odds ratio (OR)=2.79; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.74-4.47] and functional disability [OR=2.33; 95% CI=1.54-3.55]. The cumulative number of late-career unemployment was also associated with increased all-cause mortality [OR=1.91; 95% CI=1.35-2.70] and functional disability [OR=2.35; 95% CI=1.55-3.55]. Late-career unemployment and cumulative number of late-career unemployment are associated with increased all-cause mortality and functional disability. Older adults should be encouraged to maintain normal employment during the later stage of their career before retirement. Employers should routinely examine the fitness for work of older employees to prevent future unemployment. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Intestine-specific deletion of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein increases mortality in aged mice.

PubMed

Liang, Zhe; Xie, Yan; Dominguez, Jessica A; Breed, Elise R; Yoseph, Benyam P; Burd, Eileen M; Farris, Alton B; Davidson, Nicholas O; Coopersmith, Craig M

2014-01-01

Mice with conditional, intestine-specific deletion of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein (Mttp-IKO) exhibit a complete block in chylomicron assembly together with lipid malabsorption. Young (8-10 week) Mttp-IKO mice have improved survival when subjected to a murine model of Pseudomonas aeruginosa-induced sepsis. However, 80% of deaths in sepsis occur in patients over age 65. The purpose of this study was to determine whether age impacts outcome in Mttp-IKO mice subjected to sepsis. Aged (20-24 months) Mttp-IKO mice and WT mice underwent intratracheal injection with P. aeruginosa. Mice were either sacrificed 24 hours post-operatively for mechanistic studies or followed seven days for survival. In contrast to young septic Mttp-IKO mice, aged septic Mttp-IKO mice had a significantly higher mortality than aged septic WT mice (80% vs. 39%, p = 0.005). Aged septic Mttp-IKO mice exhibited increased gut epithelial apoptosis, increased jejunal Bax/Bcl-2 and Bax/Bcl-XL ratios yet simultaneously demonstrated increased crypt proliferation and villus length. Aged septic Mttp-IKO mice also manifested increased pulmonary myeloperoxidase levels, suggesting increased neutrophil infiltration, as well as decreased systemic TNFα compared to aged septic WT mice. Blocking intestinal chylomicron secretion alters mortality following sepsis in an age-dependent manner. Increases in gut apoptosis and pulmonary neutrophil infiltration, and decreased systemic TNFα represent potential mechanisms for why intestine-specific Mttp deletion is beneficial in young septic mice but harmful in aged mice as each of these parameters are altered differently in young and aged septic WT and Mttp-IKO mice.

Suicide mortality of young, middle-aged and elderly males and females in Japan for the years 1953-96: time series analysis for the effects of unemployment, female labour force, young and aged population, primary industry and population density.

PubMed

Yamasaki, Akiko; Araki, Shunichi; Sakai, Ryoji; Yokoyama, Kazuhito; Voorhees, A Scott

2008-12-01

Effects of nine social life indicators on age-adjusted and age-specific annual suicide mortality of male and female Japanese population in the years 1953-96 were investigated by multiple regression analysis on time series data. Unemployment rate was significantly related to the age-adjusted mortality in both males and females. Also, female labour force participation was positively related to the male mortality; persons and 65 and above was inversely related to the male mortality. Results on the age-specific mortality indicated that: during the 44 yr, (1) unemployment significantly related with the mortality of young, middle-aged and elderly males and young females; (2) female labour force participation significantly related with the mortality of young and elderly males and young females; aged population significantly related with the mortality of middle-aged and elderly males; (4) young population significantly related with the mortality of young and middle-aged males and females; (5) divorce significantly related with the mortality of middle-aged and elderly males and young males and females; (6) persons employed in primary industries significantly related with the mortality in middle-aged males and young males and females; and (7) population density significantly related with the mortality of middle-aged males and young females.

Some aspects of socio-economic determinants of mortality in tropical Africa.

PubMed

Gaisie, S K

1980-01-01

Measurements of mortality levels and trends continue to be inadequate in Africa, largely because of the lack of reliable and adequate information on deaths. A series of estimates depicting mortality levels and trends has been prepared by demographers, different kinds of data and employing different estimation procedures, but knowledge of the "true" structure of mortality in tropical Africa is virtually nonexistent. Because of these problems only a "bird's eye view" of the prevailing situation in tropical Africa is presented. The discussion -- directed to mortality by sex and age, by residence, and by cause -- is based on secondary and fragmentary data. Socioeconomic and cultural determinants of mortality are also examined. Available information on male and female mortality indicates that the death rates for males are higher than they are for females. Early childhood mortality (1-4 years) in tropical Africa is relatively high compared with the other age groups, including infants. Mortality differentials have been noted among geographical and administrative units and subdivisions of populations within the various countries of tropical Africa. Also, urban dwellers enjoy a higher expectation of life at birth than do rural dwellers. Communicable diseases are the main killers in tropical Africa. Persistent poverty and malnutrition, poor housing, unhealthy conditions in the growing cities, nonexistence of health facilities in the rural areas, rapid population expansion, and low levels of education are among the factors impeding progress in reducing mortality in tropical Africa. The need exists to express development goals in terms of the progressive reduction and eventual elimination of malnutrition, disease, illiteracy, squalor, and inequalities. Future trends in mortality in tropical Africa may depend more than they have in the recent past on economic and social development.

FDA-approved drugs that protect mammalian neurons from glucose toxicity slow aging dependent on cbp and protect against proteotoxicity.

PubMed

Lublin, Alex; Isoda, Fumiko; Patel, Harshil; Yen, Kelvin; Nguyen, Linda; Hajje, Daher; Schwartz, Marc; Mobbs, Charles

2011-01-01

Screening a library of drugs with known safety profiles in humans yielded 30 drugs that reliably protected mammalian neurons against glucose toxicity. Subsequent screening demonstrated that 6 of these 30 drugs increase lifespan in C. elegans: caffeine, ciclopirox olamine, tannic acid, acetaminophen, bacitracin, and baicalein. Every drug significantly reduced the age-dependent acceleration of mortality rate. These protective effects were blocked by RNAi inhibition of cbp-1 in adults only, which also blocks protective effects of dietary restriction. Only 2 drugs, caffeine and tannic acid, exhibited a similar dependency on DAF-16. Caffeine, tannic acid, and bacitracin also reduced pathology in a transgenic model of proteotoxicity associated with Alzheimer's disease. These results further support a key role for glucose toxicity in driving age-related pathologies and for CBP-1 in protection against age-related pathologies. These results also provide novel lead compounds with known safety profiles in human for treatment of age-related diseases, including Alzheimer's disease and diabetic complications.

Association of cardiorespiratory fitness with total, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality across 3 decades of follow-up in men and women.

PubMed

Vigen, Rebecca; Ayers, Colby; Willis, Benjamin; DeFina, Laura; Berry, Jarett D

2012-05-01

The inverse, dose-dependent association between cardiorespiratory fitness and mortality is well-established; however, the pattern of the association between low fitness and mortality across short- (0 to 10 years), intermediate- (10 to 20 years), and long-term (>20 years) follow-up has not been studied. We included 46 575 men and 16 151 women (mean age 44 years) from the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study. Participants were categorized as either "low fit" or "not low fit," based on age- and sex- adjusted treadmill times, and were followed for mortality, determined from the National Death Index. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to compare the association between fitness and traditional risk factors, with mortality outcomes across short-, intermediate-, and long-term follow-up. After a median follow-up of 16 years, there were 1295 cardiovascular disease and 2840 noncardiovascular disease deaths. Low fitness was associated with all-cause mortality across all periods in men [0 to 10 years: hazard ratios (HR), 1.99 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.66 to 2.40); 10 to 20 years: HR, 1.61 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.84); and >20 years: HR, 1.42 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.60)] and in women [0 to 10 years: HR, 1.98 (95% CI, 1.27 to 3.10); 10 to 20 years: HR, 1.90 (95% CI, 1.40 to 2.56); and >20 years: HR, 1.54 (95% CI, 1.15 to 2.07)]. Similar results were seen for both cardiovascular disease and noncardiovascular disease mortality. Although these associations were also consistent across most subgroups, low fitness appeared to be most strongly associated with mortality in the short term among individuals at highest short-term risk (ie, older age, abnormal exercise test). Similar to traditional risk factors, fitness is associated with mortality across short-, intermediate-, and long-term follow-up.

Association of Cardiorespiratory Fitness With Total, Cardiovascular, and Noncardiovascular Mortality Across 3 Decades of Follow-Up in Men and Women

PubMed Central

Vigen, Rebecca; Ayers, Colby; Willis, Benjamin; DeFina, Laura; Berry, Jarett D.

2013-01-01

Background The inverse, dose-dependent association between cardiorespiratory fitness and mortality is well-established; however, the pattern of the association between low fitness and mortality across short- (0 to 10 years), intermediate- (10 to 20 years), and long-term (>20 years) follow-up has not been studied. Methods and Results We included 46 575 men and 16 151 women (mean age 44 years) from the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study. Participants were categorized as either “low fit” or “not low fit,” based on age- and sex- adjusted treadmill times, and were followed for mortality, determined from the National Death Index. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to compare the association between fitness and traditional risk factors, with mortality outcomes across short-, intermediate-, and long-term follow-up. After a median follow-up of 16 years, there were 1295 cardiovascular disease and 2840 noncardiovascular disease deaths. Low fitness was associated with all-cause mortality across all periods in men [0 to 10 years: hazard ratios (HR), 1.99 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.66 to 2.40); 10 to 20 years: HR, 1.61 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.84); and >20 years: HR, 1.42 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.60)] and in women [0 to 10 years: HR, 1.98 (95% CI, 1.27 to 3.10); 10 to 20 years: HR, 1.90 (95% CI, 1.40 to 2.56); and >20 years: HR, 1.54 (95% CI, 1.15 to 2.07)]. Similar results were seen for both cardiovascular disease and noncardiovascular disease mortality. Although these associations were also consistent across most subgroups, low fitness appeared to be most strongly associated with mortality in the short term among individuals at highest short-term risk (ie, older age, abnormal exercise test). Conclusions Similar to traditional risk factors, fitness is associated with mortality across short-, intermediate-, and long-term follow-up. PMID:22474246

High early life mortality in free-ranging dogs is largely influenced by humans

PubMed Central

Paul, Manabi; Sen Majumder, Sreejani; Sau, Shubhra; Nandi, Anjan K.; Bhadra, Anindita

2016-01-01

Free-ranging dogs are a ubiquitous part of human habitations in many developing countries, leading a life of scavengers dependent on human wastes for survival. The effective management of free-ranging dogs calls for understanding of their population dynamics. Life expectancy at birth and early life mortality are important factors that shape life-histories of mammals. We carried out a five year-long census based study in seven locations of West Bengal, India, to understand the pattern of population growth and factors affecting early life mortality in free-ranging dogs. We observed high rates of mortality, with only ~19% of the 364 pups from 95 observed litters surviving till the reproductive age; 63% of total mortality being human influenced. While living near people increases resource availability for dogs, it also has deep adverse impacts on their population growth, making the dog-human relationship on streets highly complex. PMID:26804633

C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio is a predictor of hepatitis B virus related decompensated cirrhosis: time-dependent receiver operating characteristics and decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Si-Si; Xie, Dong-Mei; Cai, Yi-Jing; Wu, Jian-Min; Chen, Rui-Chong; Wang, Xiao-Dong; Song, Mei; Zheng, Ming-Hua; Wang, Yu-Qun; Lin, Zhuo; Shi, Ke-Qing

2017-04-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a major health problem and HBV-related-decompensated cirrhosis (HBV-DC) usually leads to a poor prognosis. Our aim was to determine the utility of inflammatory biomarkers in predicting mortality of HBV-DC. A total of 329 HBV-DC patients were enrolled. Survival estimates for the entire study population were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The prognostic values for model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, Child-Pugh score, and inflammatory biomarkers neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR), and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) for HBV-DC were compared using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves and time-dependent decision curves. The survival time was 23.1±15.8 months. Multivariate analysis identified age, CAR, LMR, and platelet count as prognostic independent risk factors. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that CAR of at least 1.0 (hazard ratio, 7.19; 95% confidence interval, 4.69-11.03), and LMR less than 1.9 (hazard ratio, 2.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.69-3.41) were independently associated with mortality of HBV-DC. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic indicated that CAR showed the best performance in predicting mortality of HBV-DC compared with LMR, MELD score, and Child-Pugh score. The results were also confirmed by time-dependent decision curves. CAR and LMR were associated with the prognosis of HBV-DC. CAR was superior to LMR, MELD score, and Child-Pugh score in HBV-DC mortality prediction.

Foetal mortality, infant mortality, and age of parents. An overview.

PubMed

Gourbin, C

2005-11-01

This review article examines the relationship between late foetal and infant mortality, and age of parents. The highest risks are observed at older maternal ages for foetal mortality and at both extremes of reproductive ages for infant mortality. For infant morbidity, the role of intermediate variables is discussed. Increasing paternal age seems to be related to higher foetal and neonatal mortality.

Modeling the Effects of Mortality on Sea Otter Populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.

2010-01-01

Conservation and management of sea otters can benefit from managing the magnitude and sex composition of human related mortality, including harvesting within sustainable levels. Using age and sex-specific reproduction and survival rates from field studies, we created matrix population models representing sea otter populations with growth rates of 1.005, 1.072, and 1.145, corresponding to stable, moderate, and rapid rates of change. In each modeled population, we incrementally imposed additional annual mortality over a 20-year period and calculated average annual rates of change (lambda). Additional mortality was applied to (1) males only, (2) at a 1:1 ratio of male to female, and (3) at a 3:1 ratio of male to female. Dependent pups (age 0-0.5) were excluded from the mortality. Maintaining a stable or slightly increasing population was largely dependent on (1) the magnitude of additional mortality, (2) the underlying rate of change in the population during the period of additional mortality, and (3) the extent that females were included in the additional mortality (due to a polygnous reproductive system where one male may breed with more than one female). In stable populations, additional mortality as high as 2.4 percent was sustainable if limited to males only, but was reduced to 1.2 percent when males and females were removed at ratios of 3:1 or 0.5 percent at ratios of 1:1. In moderate growth populations, additional mortality of 9.8 percent (male-only) and 15.0 percent (3:1 male to female) maximized the sustainable mortality about 3-10 ten-fold over the stable population levels. However, if additional mortality consists of males and females at equal proportions, the sustainable rate is 7.7 percent. In rapid growth populations, maximum sustainable levels of mortality as high as 27.3 percent were achieved when the ratio of additional mortality was 3:1 male to female. Although male-only mortality maximized annual harvest in stable populations, high male biased mortality in all simulations eventually led to low proportions of males, leading to instability in projected populations over time. Our findings identify the critical need to understand underlying rates of change that can be acquired only through frequent monitoring of managed populations. Models could be improved through better understanding of the effects of density and demographic and environmental stochasticity on sea otter vital rates. Although our primary objective was to provide information useful in managing harvests of sea otters, our findings have implications for the conservation and management of sea otter populations subjected to other sources of mortality that can be quantified, such as incidental, accidental, or illegal.

Global statistics on alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use: 2017 status report.

PubMed

Peacock, Amy; Leung, Janni; Larney, Sarah; Colledge, Samantha; Hickman, Matthew; Rehm, Jürgen; Giovino, Gary A; West, Robert; Hall, Wayne; Griffiths, Paul; Ali, Robert; Gowing, Linda; Marsden, John; Ferrari, Alize J; Grebely, Jason; Farrell, Michael; Degenhardt, Louisa

2018-05-10

This review provides an up-to-date curated source of information on alcohol, tobacco, and illicit drug use and their associated mortality and burden of disease. Limitations in the data are also discussed, including how these can be addressed in the future. Online data sources were identified through expert review. Data were mainly obtained from the World Health Organization, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. In 2015, the estimated prevalence among the adult population was 18.3% for heavy episodic alcohol use (in the past 30 days); 15.2% for daily tobacco smoking; and 3.8%, 0.77%, 0.37%, and 0.35% for past-year cannabis, amphetamine, opioid, and cocaine use, respectively. European regions had the highest prevalence of heavy episodic alcohol use and daily tobacco use. The age-standardised prevalence of alcohol dependence was 843.2 per 100,000 people; for cannabis, opioids, amphetamines and cocaine dependence it was 259.3, 220.4, 86.0 and 52.5 per 100,000 people, respectively. High-Income North America region had among the highest rates of cannabis, opioid, and cocaine dependence. Attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were highest for tobacco (170.9 million DALYs), followed by alcohol (85.0 million) and illicit drugs (27.8 million). Substance-attributable mortality rates were highest for tobacco (110.7 deaths per 100,000 people), followed by alcohol and illicit drugs (33.0, and 6.9 deaths per 100,000 people, respectively). Attributable age-standardised mortality rates and DALYs for alcohol and illicit drugs were highest in Eastern Europe; attributable age-standardised tobacco mortality rates and DALYs were highest in Oceania. In 2015 alcohol and tobacco use between them cost the human population more than a quarter of a billion disability-adjusted life years, with illicit drugs costing a further tens of millions. Europeans proportionately suffered more but in absolute terms the mortality rate was greatest in low and middle income countries with large populations and where the quality of data was more limited. Better standardised and rigorous methods for data collection, collation and reporting are needed to assess more accurately the geographical and temporal trends in substance use and its disease burden. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Impact of long term care and mortality risk in community care and nursing homes populations.

PubMed

Lopes, Hugo; Mateus, Céu; Rosati, Nicoletta

To identify the survival time, the mortality risk factors and the individuals' characteristics associated with cognitive and physical status at discharge, among the Portuguese long-term care (LTC) populations. Home-and-Community-Based Services (HCBS) and three types of Nursing Homes (NH). 20,984 individuals admitted and discharged in 2015. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox Proportional Hazards Models were used to study the mortality risk; the Wilcoxon signed-rank test to identify the number of individuals with cognitive and physical changes between admission and discharge; two cumulative odds ordinal logistic regressions to predict the cognitive and physical dependence levels at discharge RESULTS: The mortality rate at HCBS was 30%, and 17% at the NH, with a median survival time of 173 and 200 days, respectively. The main factors associated with higher mortality were older age, male gender, family/neighbour support, neoplasms and cognitive/physical dependence at admission. In NH/HCBS, 26%/18% of individuals improve their cognitive status, while in physical status the proportion was 38%/27%, respectively. Finally, older age, being illiterate and being classified at the lowest cognitive and physical status at admission decrease the likelihood of achieving a higher level of cognitive and physical independence at discharge. The adoption of a robust and complete assessment tool, the definition of guidelines to enable a periodical assessment of individuals' autonomy and the adoption of benchmark metrics allowing the comparison of results between similar units are some of the main goals to be taken into account for future developments of this care in Portugal. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

comment="please make the changes marked up in the attached pdf"Sex-Dependent Effects of Caloric Restriction on the Ageing of an Ambush Feeding Copepod.

PubMed

Saiz, Enric; Calbet, Albert; Griffell, Kaiene

2017-10-04

Planktonic copepods are a very successful group in marine pelagic environments, with a key role in biogeochemical cycles. Among them, the genus Oithona is one of the more abundant and ubiquitous. We report here on the effects of caloric (food) restriction on the ageing patterns of the copepod Oithona davisae. The response of O. davisae to caloric restriction was sex dependent: under food limitation, females have lower age-specific mortality rates and longer lifespans and reproductive periods; male mortality rates and life expectancy were not affected. Males are more active swimmers than females, and given their higher energetic demands presumably generate reactive oxygen species at higher rates. That was confirmed by starvation experiments, which showed that O. davisae males burn through body reserves much faster, resulting in shorter life expectancy. Compared with common, coastal calanoid copepods, the effects of caloric restriction on O. davisae appeared less prominent. We think this difference in the magnitude of the responses is a consequence of the distinct life-history traits associated with the genus Oithona (ambush feeder, egg-carrier), with much lower overall levels of metabolism and reproductive effort.

[Association between social deprivation and causes of mortality among elderly residents in the city of Recife, Pernambuco State, Brazil].

PubMed

Silva, Vanessa de Lima; Leal, Márcia Carréra Campos; Marino, Jacira Guiro; Marques, Ana Paula de Oliveira

2008-05-01

This paper aims to analyze mortality among elderly residents in the city of Recife, Pernambuco State, Brazil, and its association with social deprivation (hardship) in the year 2000. An ecological study was performed, and 94 neighborhoods and 5 social strata were analyzed. The independent variable consisted of a composite social deprivation indicator, obtained for each neighborhood and calculated through a scoring technique based on census variables: water supply, sewage, illiteracy, and head-of-household's years of schooling and income. The dependent variables were: mortality rate in individuals > 60 years of age and cause-specific mortality rates. The association was calculated by means of the Pearson correlation coefficient, linear regression, and mortality odds between social deprivation strata formed by grouping of neighborhoods according to the indicator's quintiles. The data show a statistically significant positive correlation between social deprivation and mortality in the elderly from pneumonia, protein-energy malnutrition, tuberculosis, diarrhea/gastroenteritis, and traffic accidents, and a negative correlation with deaths from bronchopulmonary and breast cancers.

A Mild Impairment of Mitochondrial Electron Transport Has Sex-Specific Effects on Lifespan and Aging in Mice

PubMed Central

Hughes, Bryan G.; Hekimi, Siegfried

2011-01-01

Impairments of various aspects of mitochondrial function have been associated with increased lifespan in various model organisms ranging from Caenorhabditis elegans to mice. For example, disruption of the function of the ‘Rieske’ iron-sulfur protein (RISP) of complex III of the mitochondrial electron transport chain can result in increased lifespan in the nematode worm C. elegans. However, the mechanisms by which impaired mitochondrial function affects aging remain under investigation, including whether or not they require decreased electron transport. We have generated knock-in mice with a loss-of-function Risp mutation that is homozygous lethal. However, heterozygotes (Risp+/P224S) were viable and had decreased levels of RISP protein and complex III enzymatic activity. This decrease was sufficient to impair mitochondrial respiration and to decrease overall metabolic rate in males, but not females. These defects did not appear to exert an overtly deleterious effect on the health of the mutants, since young Risp+/P224S mice are outwardly normal, with unaffected performance and fertility. Furthermore, biomarkers of oxidative stress were unaffected in both young and aged animals. Despite this, the average lifespan of male Risp+/P224S mice was shortened and aged Risp+/P224S males showed signs of more rapidly deteriorating health. In spite of these differences, analysis of Gompertz mortality parameters showed that Risp heterozygosity decreased the rate of increase of mortality with age and increased the intrinsic vulnerability to death in both sexes. However, the intrinsic vulnerability was increased more dramatically in males, which resulted in their shortened lifespan. For females, the slower acceleration of age-dependent mortality results in significantly increased survival of Risp+/P224S mice in the second half of lifespan. These results demonstrate that even relatively small perturbations of the mitochondrial electron transport chain can have significant physiological effects in mammals, and that the severity of those effects can be sex-dependent. PMID:22028811

Pediatric Sepsis Endotypes Among Adults With Sepsis.

PubMed

Wong, Hector R; Sweeney, Timothy E; Hart, Kimberly W; Khatri, Purvesh; Lindsell, Christopher J

2017-12-01

Recent transcriptomic studies describe two subgroups of adults with sepsis differentiated by a sepsis response signature. The implied biology and related clinical associations are comparable with recently reported pediatric sepsis endotypes, labeled "A" and "B." We classified adults with sepsis using the pediatric endotyping strategy and the sepsis response signature and determined how endotype assignment, sepsis response signature membership, and age interact with respect to mortality. Retrospective analysis of publically available transcriptomic data representing critically ill adults with sepsis from which the sepsis response signature groups were derived and validated. Multiple ICUs. Adults with sepsis. None. Transcriptomic data were conormalized into a single dataset yielding 549 unique cases with sepsis response signature assignments. Each subject was assigned to endotype A or B using the expression data for the 100 endotyping genes. There were 163 subjects (30%) assigned to endotype A and 386 to endotype B. There was a weak, positive correlation between endotype assignment and sepsis response signature membership. Mortality rates were similar between patients assigned endotype A and those assigned endotype B. A multivariable logistic regression model fit to endotype assignment, sepsis response signature membership, age, and the respective two-way interactions revealed that endotype A, sepsis response signature 1 membership, older age, and the interactions between them were associated with mortality. Subjects coassigned to endotype A, and sepsis response signature 1 had the highest mortality. Combining the pediatric endotyping strategy with sepsis response signature membership might provide complementary, age-dependent, biological, and prognostic information.

Insulin treated diabetes mellitus: causes of death determined from record linkage of population based registers in Leicestershire, UK.

PubMed Central

Raymond, N T; Langley, J D; Goyder, E; Botha, J L; Burden, A C; Hearnshaw, J R

1995-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE--Analyses of causes of mortality in people with diabetes using data form death certificates mentioning diabetes provide unreliable estimates of mortality. Under-recording of diabetes as a cause on death certificates has been widely reported, ranging from 15-60%. Using a population based register on people with diabetes and linking data from another source is a viable alternative. Data from the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (OPCS) are the most acceptable mortality data available for such an exercise, as direct comparison with other published mortality rates is then possible. DESIGN--A locally maintained population-based mortality register and all insulin-treated diabetes mellitus cases notified to the Leicestershire diabetes register (n = 4680) were linked using record linkage software developed in-house (Lynx). This software has been extensively used in a maintenance and update cycle designed to maximise accuracy and minimise duplication and false registration on the diabetes register. Deaths identified were initially coded locally to the International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision (ICD9), and later a linkage was performed to use official OPCS coding. Mortality data identified by the linkage was indirectly standardised using population data for Leicestershire for 1991. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were estimated, with 95% confidence intervals. Insulin dependent diabetes (IDDM) was defined as diabetes diagnosed before age 30 years with insulin therapy begun within one year of diagnosis. All other types were considered non-insulin dependent diabetes (NIDDM). Analyses were performed for the whole sample and then for the NIDDM subgroup. Results from these analyses were similar and therefore only whole group analyses are presented. MAIN RESULTS--A total of 370 deaths were identified for the period of 1990-92 inclusive - 56% were in men and 44% in women, median age (range) 71 years (12-94). Approximately 90% of deaths were subjects with NIDDM. Diabetes was mentioned on 215 (58%) death certificates. The all causes SMRs were significantly raised for men and women for all ages less than 75 years. Ischaemic heart disease (ICD9) rubrics 410-414) accounted for 146 (40%) deaths - 41% of male and 38% of female deaths. Male and female SMRs were significantly raised for the age groups 45-64, 65-74, and 75-84 years. Cerebrovascular disease (ICD9 rubrics 430-438) accounted for 39 (10%) deaths and the SMR for women the external causes of death (ICD9 rubrics E800-E999) were also significantly raised overall and in age groups 15-44 and 45-64 years. This was not true for men, although numbers of deaths in this category were small for both men (4) and women (9). CONCLUSION--Record linkage has been used successfully to link two local, population based registers. This has enabled an analysis of mortality in people with diabetes to be performed which overcomes the problems associated with using as a sample, death certificates where diabetes is mentioned. The mortality rates and SMRs estimated should more accurately reflect the true rates than would be possible using other methods. The persisting excess mortality identified for people with diabetes is of a similar magnitude and attributable to similar causes as has been reported elsewhere in population based studies. PMID:8596090

The Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (K/DOQI) Guideline for Bone Metabolism and Disease in CKD: association with mortality in dialysis patients.

PubMed

Noordzij, Marlies; Korevaar, Johanna C; Boeschoten, Elisabeth W; Dekker, Friedo W; Bos, Willem J; Krediet, Raymond T

2005-11-01

In 2003, the National Kidney Foundation-Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (K/DOQI) published a guideline recommending tight control of serum calcium, phosphorus, calcium-phosphorus product (Ca x P), and intact parathyroid hormone levels in patients with chronic kidney disease. Within the context of this guideline, we explored associations of these plasma concentrations with all-cause mortality risk in incident dialysis patients in The Netherlands. In a large, prospective, multicenter, cohort study (Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis), we included 1,629 patients new on hemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis therapy between 1997 and 2004. Multivariate Cox regression models containing calcium level, phosphorus level, intact parathyroid hormone level, age, comorbidity, primary kidney disease, nutritional status, albumin level, dialysis dose, and hemoglobin level were used to examine mortality risks. Mean age was 60 +/- 15 (SD) years, 61% were men, and 64% were treated with hemodialysis. In adjusted time-dependent survival analysis, all-cause mortality risk increased in hemodialysis patients by 40% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1 to 1.7) and in peritoneal dialysis patients by 60% (HR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.4) for plasma phosphorus levels greater than the target. In addition, having elevated plasma Ca x P product levels increased mortality risk by 40% (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1 to 1.8) in hemodialysis patients and 50% in peritoneal dialysis patients (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.0 to 2.2). In both patient groups, no significant effects were observed for plasma levels less than the targets. In time-dependent survival analysis, the presence of plasma phosphorus and Ca x P product concentrations greater than K/DOQI targets increased all-cause mortality risk in hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients.

Impact of Sarcopenia on One-Year Mortality among Older Hospitalized Patients with Impaired Mobility.

PubMed

Pourhassan, M; Norman, K; Müller, M J; Dziewas, R; Wirth, R

2018-01-01

However, the information regarding the impact of sarcopenia on mortality in older individuals is rising, there is a lack of knowledge concerning this issue among geriatric hospitalized patients. Therefore, aim of the present study was to investigate the associations between sarcopenia and 1-year mortality in a prospectively recruited sample of geriatric inpatients with different mobility and dependency status. Sarcopenia was diagnosed using the criteria of the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP). Hand grip strength and skeletal muscle mass were measured using Jamar dynamometer and bioelectrical impedance analysis, respectively. Physical function was assessed with the Short Physical Performance Battery. Dependency status was defined by Barthel-Index (BI). Mobility limitation was defined according to walking ability as described in BI. The survival status was ascertained by telephone interview. The recruited population comprised 198 patients from a geriatric acute ward with a mean age of 82.8 ± 5.9 (70.2% females). 50 (25.3%) patients had sarcopenia, while 148 (74.7%) had no sarcopenia. 14 (28%) patients died among sarcopenic subjects compared with 28 (19%) non-sarcopenic subjects (P=0.229). After adjustment for potential confounders, sarcopenia was associated with increased mortality among patients with limited mobility prior to admission (n=138, hazard ratio, HR: 2.52, 95% CI: 1.17-5.44) and at time of discharge (n=162, HR: 1.93, 95% CI: 0.67-3.22). In a sub-group of patients with pre-admission BI<60 (n=45), <70 (n=73) and <80 (n=108), the risk of death was 3.63, 2.80 and 2.55 times higher in sarcopenic patients, respectively. In contrast, no significant relationships were observed between sarcopenia and mortality across the different scores of BI during admission and at time of discharge. Sarcopenia is significantly associated with higher risk of mortality among sub-groups of older patients with limited mobility and impaired functional status, independently of age and other clinical variables.

Effects of Extrinsic Mortality on the Evolution of Aging: A Stochastic Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Shokhirev, Maxim Nikolaievich; Johnson, Adiv Adam

2014-01-01

The evolutionary theories of aging are useful for gaining insights into the complex mechanisms underlying senescence. Classical theories argue that high levels of extrinsic mortality should select for the evolution of shorter lifespans and earlier peak fertility. Non-classical theories, in contrast, posit that an increase in extrinsic mortality could select for the evolution of longer lifespans. Although numerous studies support the classical paradigm, recent data challenge classical predictions, finding that high extrinsic mortality can select for the evolution of longer lifespans. To further elucidate the role of extrinsic mortality in the evolution of aging, we implemented a stochastic, agent-based, computational model. We used a simulated annealing optimization approach to predict which model parameters predispose populations to evolve longer or shorter lifespans in response to increased levels of predation. We report that longer lifespans evolved in the presence of rising predation if the cost of mating is relatively high and if energy is available in excess. Conversely, we found that dramatically shorter lifespans evolved when mating costs were relatively low and food was relatively scarce. We also analyzed the effects of increased predation on various parameters related to density dependence and energy allocation. Longer and shorter lifespans were accompanied by increased and decreased investments of energy into somatic maintenance, respectively. Similarly, earlier and later maturation ages were accompanied by increased and decreased energetic investments into early fecundity, respectively. Higher predation significantly decreased the total population size, enlarged the shared resource pool, and redistributed energy reserves for mature individuals. These results both corroborate and refine classical predictions, demonstrating a population-level trade-off between longevity and fecundity and identifying conditions that produce both classical and non-classical lifespan effects. PMID:24466165

Impact of fetal death reporting requirements on early neonatal and fetal mortality rates and racial disparities.

PubMed

Tyler, Crystal P; Grady, Sue C; Grigorescu, Violanda; Luke, Barbara; Todem, David; Paneth, Nigel

2012-01-01

Racial disparities in infant and neonatal mortality vary substantially across the U.S. with some states experiencing wider disparities than others. Many factors are thought to contribute to these disparities, but state differences in fetal death reporting have received little attention. We examined whether such reporting requirements may explain national variation in neonatal and fetal mortality rates and racial disparities. We used data on non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black infants from the U.S. 2000-2002 linked birth/infant death and fetal death records to determine the degree to which state fetal death reporting requirements explain national variation in neonatal and fetal mortality rates and racial disparities. States were grouped depending upon whether they based the lower limit for fetal death reporting on birthweight alone, gestational age alone, both birthweight and gestational age, or required reporting of all fetal deaths. Traditional methods and the fetuses-at-risk approach were used to calculate mortality rates, 95% confidence intervals, and relative and absolute racial disparity measures in these four groups. States with birthweight-alone fetal death thresholds substantially underreported fetal deaths at lower gestations and slightly overreported neonatal deaths at older gestations. This finding was reflected by these states having the highest neonatal mortality rates and disparities, but the lowest fetal mortality rates and disparities. Using birthweight alone as a reporting threshold may promote some shift of fetal deaths to newborn deaths, contributing to racial disparities in neonatal mortality. The adoption of a uniform national threshold for reporting fetal deaths could reduce systematic differences in live birth and fetal death reporting.

Effects of Comprehensive Stroke Care Capabilities on In-Hospital Mortality of Patients with Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke: J-ASPECT Study

PubMed Central

Iihara, Koji; Nishimura, Kunihiro; Kada, Akiko; Nakagawara, Jyoji; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Ono, Junichi; Shiokawa, Yoshiaki; Aruga, Toru; Miyachi, Shigeru; Nagata, Izumi; Toyoda, Kazunori; Matsuda, Shinya; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro; Suzuki, Akifumi; Ishikawa, Koichi B.; Kataoka, Hiroharu; Nakamura, Fumiaki; Kamitani, Satoru

2014-01-01

Background The effectiveness of comprehensive stroke center (CSC) capabilities on stroke mortality remains uncertain. We performed a nationwide study to examine whether CSC capabilities influenced in-hospital mortality of patients with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. Methods and Results Of the 1,369 certified training institutions in Japan, 749 hospitals responded to a questionnaire survey regarding CSC capabilities that queried the availability of personnel, diagnostic techniques, specific expertise, infrastructure, and educational components recommended for CSCs. Among the institutions that responded, data on patients hospitalized for stroke between April 1, 2010 and March 31, 2011 were obtained from the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination database. In-hospital mortality was analyzed using hierarchical logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, level of consciousness on admission, comorbidities, and the number of fulfilled CSC items in each component and in total. Data from 265 institutions and 53,170 emergency-hospitalized patients were analyzed. Mortality rates were 7.8% for patients with ischemic stroke, 16.8% for patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and 28.1% for patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Mortality adjusted for age, sex, and level of consciousness was significantly correlated with personnel, infrastructural, educational, and total CSC scores in patients with ischemic stroke. Mortality was significantly correlated with diagnostic, educational, and total CSC scores in patients with ICH and with specific expertise, infrastructural, educational, and total CSC scores in patients with SAH. Conclusions CSC capabilities were associated with reduced in-hospital mortality rates, and relevant aspects of care were found to be dependent on stroke type. PMID:24828409

Effects of comprehensive stroke care capabilities on in-hospital mortality of patients with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke: J-ASPECT study.

PubMed

Iihara, Koji; Nishimura, Kunihiro; Kada, Akiko; Nakagawara, Jyoji; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Ono, Junichi; Shiokawa, Yoshiaki; Aruga, Toru; Miyachi, Shigeru; Nagata, Izumi; Toyoda, Kazunori; Matsuda, Shinya; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro; Suzuki, Akifumi; Ishikawa, Koichi B; Kataoka, Hiroharu; Nakamura, Fumiaki; Kamitani, Satoru

2014-01-01

The effectiveness of comprehensive stroke center (CSC) capabilities on stroke mortality remains uncertain. We performed a nationwide study to examine whether CSC capabilities influenced in-hospital mortality of patients with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. Of the 1,369 certified training institutions in Japan, 749 hospitals responded to a questionnaire survey regarding CSC capabilities that queried the availability of personnel, diagnostic techniques, specific expertise, infrastructure, and educational components recommended for CSCs. Among the institutions that responded, data on patients hospitalized for stroke between April 1, 2010 and March 31, 2011 were obtained from the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination database. In-hospital mortality was analyzed using hierarchical logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, level of consciousness on admission, comorbidities, and the number of fulfilled CSC items in each component and in total. Data from 265 institutions and 53,170 emergency-hospitalized patients were analyzed. Mortality rates were 7.8% for patients with ischemic stroke, 16.8% for patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and 28.1% for patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Mortality adjusted for age, sex, and level of consciousness was significantly correlated with personnel, infrastructural, educational, and total CSC scores in patients with ischemic stroke. Mortality was significantly correlated with diagnostic, educational, and total CSC scores in patients with ICH and with specific expertise, infrastructural, educational, and total CSC scores in patients with SAH. CSC capabilities were associated with reduced in-hospital mortality rates, and relevant aspects of care were found to be dependent on stroke type.

Outcomes of repeat revascularization in diabetic patients with prior coronary surgery.

PubMed

Cole, Jason H; Jones, Ellis L; Craver, Joseph M; Guyton, Robert A; Morris, Douglas C; Douglas, John S; Ghazzal, Ziyad; Weintraub, William S

2002-12-04

This study evaluated both short- and long-term outcomes of diabetic patients who underwent repeat coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) after initial CABG. Although diabetic patients who have multivessel coronary disease and require initial revascularization may benefit from CABG as compared with PCI, the uncertainty concerning the choice of revascularization may be greater for diabetic patients who have had previous CABG. Data were obtained over 15 years for diabetic patients undergoing PCI procedures or repeat CABG after previous coronary surgery. Baseline characteristics were compared between groups, and in-hospital, 5-year, and 10-year mortality rates were calculated. Multivariate correlates of in-hospital and long-term mortality were determined. Both PCI (n = 1,123) and CABG (n = 598) patients were similar in age, gender, years of diabetes, and insulin dependence, but they varied in presence of hypertension, prior myocardial infarction, angina severity, heart failure, ejection fraction, and left main disease. In-hospital mortality was greater for CABG, but differences in long-term mortality were not significant (10 year mortality, 68% PCI vs. 74% CABG, p = 0.14). Multivariate correlates of long-term mortality were older age, hypertension, low ejection fraction, and an interaction between heart failure and choice of PCI. The PCI itself did not correlate with mortality. The increased initial risk of redo CABG in diabetic patients and the comparable high long-term mortality regardless of type of intervention suggest that, except for patients with severe heart failure, PCI be strongly considered in all patients for whom there is a percutaneous alternative.

Avian growth and development rates and age-specific mortality: the roles of nest predation and adult mortality.

PubMed

Remes, V

2007-01-01

Previous studies have shown that avian growth and development covary with juvenile mortality. Juveniles of birds under strong nest predation pressure grow rapidly, have short incubation and nestling periods, and leave the nest at low body mass. Life-history theory predicts that parental investment increases with adult mortality rate. Thus, developmental traits that depend on the parental effort exerted (pre- and postnatal growth rate) should scale positively with adult mortality, in contrast to those that do not have a direct relationship with parental investment (timing of developmental events, e.g. nest leaving). I tested this prediction on a sample of 84 North American songbirds. Nestling growth rate scaled positively and incubation period duration negatively with annual adult mortality rates even when controlled for nest predation and other covariates, including phylogeny. On the contrary, neither the duration of the nestling period nor body mass at fledging showed any relationship. Proximate mechanisms generating the relationship of pre- and postnatal growth rates to adult mortality may include increased feeding, nest attentiveness during incubation and/or allocation of hormones, and deserve further attention.

Coffee, alcohol and other beverages in relation to cirrhosis mortality: the Singapore Chinese Health Study

PubMed Central

Goh, George Boon-Bee; Chow, Wan-Cheng; Renwei-Wang; Yuan, Jian-Min; Koh, Woon-Puay

2014-01-01

Limited experimental and epidemiologic data suggest that coffee may reduce hepatic damage in chronic liver disease. The association between consumption of coffee and other beverages, and risk of cirrhosis mortality was evaluated in The Singapore Chinese Health Study. This is a prospective population-based cohort of 63,275 middle-aged and older Chinese subjects who provided data on diet, lifestyle and medical histories through in-person interviews using structured questionnaire at enrollment between 1993 and 1998. Mortality from cirrhosis in the cohort was ascertained through linkage analysis with nationwide death registry. After a mean follow-up of 14.7 years, 114 subjects died from cirrhosis; 33 of them from viral hepatitis B (29%), two from hepatitis C (2%), and 14 from alcohol-related cirrhosis (12%). Compared to non-drinkers, daily alcohol drinkers had a strong dose-dependent positive association between amount of alcohol and risk of cirrhosis mortality. Conversely, there was a strong dose-dependent inverse association between coffee intake and risk of non-viral hepatitis related cirrhosis mortality (p for trend=0.014). Compared to non-daily coffee drinkers, those who drank two or more cups per day had 66% reduction in mortality risk (HR=0.34, 95% CI=0.14–0.81). However, coffee intake was not associated with hepatitis B related cirrhosis mortality. The inverse relationship between caffeine intake and nonviral hepatitis-related cirrhosis mortality became null after adjustment for coffee drinking. The consumption of black tea, green tea, fruit juices or soft drinks was not associated with risk of cirrhosis death. Conclusion This study demonstrates the protective effect of coffee on non-viral hepatitis related cirrhosis mortality, and provides further impetus to evaluate coffee as a potential therapeutic agent in patients with cirrhosis. PMID:24753005

A cancer survival model that takes sociodemographic variations in "normal" mortality into account: comparison with other models

PubMed Central

Kravdal, O

2002-01-01

Study objectives: Sociodemographic differentials in cancer survival have occasionally been studied by using a relative survival approach, where all cause mortality among persons with a cancer diagnosis is compared with that among similar persons without such a diagnosis ("normal" mortality). One should ideally take into account that this "normal" mortality not only depends on age, sex, and period, but also various other sociodemographic variables. However, this has very rarely been done. A method that permits such variations to be considered is presented here, as an alternative to an existing technique, and is compared with a relative survival model where these variations are disregarded and two other methods that have often been used. Design, setting, and participants: The focus is on how education and marital status affect the survival from 12 common cancer types among men and women aged 40–80. Four different types of hazard models are estimated, and differences between effects are compared. The data are from registers and censuses and cover the entire Norwegian population for the years 1960–1991. There are more than 100 000 deaths to cancer patients in this material. Main results and conclusions: A model for registered cancer mortality among cancer patients gives results that for most, but not all, sites are very similar to those from a relative survival approach where educational or marital variations in "normal" mortality are taken into account. A relative survival approach without consideration of these sociodemographic variations in "normal" mortality gives more different results, the most extreme example being the doubling of the marital differentials in survival from prostate cancer. When neither sufficient data on cause of death nor on variations in "normal" mortality are available, one may well choose the simplest method, which is to model all cause mortality among cancer patients. There is little reason to bother with the estimation of a relative-survival model that does not allow sociodemographic variations in "normal" mortality beyond those related to age, sex, and period. Fortunately, both these less data demanding models perform well for the most aggressive cancers. PMID:11896140

Distinct Age and Self-Rated Health Crossover Mortality Effects for African Americans: Evidence from a National Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Roth, David L.; Skarupski, Kimberly A.; Crews, Deidra C.; Howard, Virginia J.; Locher, Julie L.

2016-01-01

The predictive effects of age and self-rated health (SRH) on all-cause mortality are known to differ across race and ethnic groups. African American adults have higher mortality rates than Whites at younger ages, but this mortality disparity diminishes with advancing age and may “crossover” at about 75 to 80 years of age, when African Americans may show lower mortality rates. This pattern of findings reflects a lower overall association between age and mortality for African Americans than for Whites, and health-related mechanisms are typically cited as the reason for this age-based crossover mortality effect. However, a lower association between poor SRH and mortality has also been found for African Americans than for Whites, and it is not known if the reduced age and SRH associations with mortality for African Americans reflect independent or overlapping mechanisms. This study examined these two mortality predictors simultaneously in a large epidemiological study of 12,181 African Americans and 17,436 Whites. Participants were 45 or more years of age when they enrolled in the national REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study between 2003 and 2007. Consistent with previous studies, African Americans had poorer SRH than Whites even after adjusting for demographic and health history covariates. Survival analysis models indicated statistically significant and independent race*age, race*SRH, and age*SRH interaction effects on all-cause mortality over an average 9-year follow-up period. Advanced age and poorer SRH were both weaker mortality risk factors for African Americans than for Whites. These two effects were distinct and presumably tapped different causal mechanisms. This calls into question the health-related explanation for the age-based mortality crossover effect and suggests that other mechanisms, including behavioral, social, and cultural factors, should be considered in efforts to better understand the age-based mortality crossover effect and other longevity disparities. PMID:27015163

Distinct age and self-rated health crossover mortality effects for African Americans: Evidence from a national cohort study.

PubMed

Roth, David L; Skarupski, Kimberly A; Crews, Deidra C; Howard, Virginia J; Locher, Julie L

2016-05-01

The predictive effects of age and self-rated health (SRH) on all-cause mortality are known to differ across race and ethnic groups. African American adults have higher mortality rates than Whites at younger ages, but this mortality disparity diminishes with advancing age and may "crossover" at about 75-80 years of age, when African Americans may show lower mortality rates. This pattern of findings reflects a lower overall association between age and mortality for African Americans than for Whites, and health-related mechanisms are typically cited as the reason for this age-based crossover mortality effect. However, a lower association between poor SRH and mortality has also been found for African Americans than for Whites, and it is not known if the reduced age and SRH associations with mortality for African Americans reflect independent or overlapping mechanisms. This study examined these two mortality predictors simultaneously in a large epidemiological study of 12,181 African Americans and 17,436 Whites. Participants were 45 or more years of age when they enrolled in the national REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study between 2003 and 2007. Consistent with previous studies, African Americans had poorer SRH than Whites even after adjusting for demographic and health history covariates. Survival analysis models indicated statistically significant and independent race*age, race*SRH, and age*SRH interaction effects on all-cause mortality over an average 9-year follow-up period. Advanced age and poorer SRH were both weaker mortality risk factors for African Americans than for Whites. These two effects were distinct and presumably tapped different causal mechanisms. This calls into question the health-related explanation for the age-based mortality crossover effect and suggests that other mechanisms, including behavioral, social, and cultural factors, should be considered in efforts to better understand the age-based mortality crossover effect and other longevity disparities. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The impact of peritoneal dialysis-related peritonitis on mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients.

PubMed

Ye, Hongjian; Zhou, Qian; Fan, Li; Guo, Qunying; Mao, Haiping; Huang, Fengxian; Yu, Xueqing; Yang, Xiao

2017-06-05

Results concerning the association between peritoneal dialysis-related peritonitis and mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients are inconclusive, with one potential reason being that the time-dependent effect of peritonitis has rarely been considered in previous studies. This study aimed to evaluate whether peritonitis has a negative impact on mortality in a large cohort of peritoneal dialysis patients. We also assessed the changing impact of peritonitis on patient mortality with respect to duration of follow-up. This retrospective cohort study included incident patients who started peritoneal dialysis from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2011. Episodes of peritonitis were recorded at the time of onset, and peritonitis was parameterized as a time-dependent variable for analysis. We used the Cox regression model to assess whether peritonitis has a negative impact on mortality. A total of 1321 patients were included. The mean age was 48.1 ± 15.3 years, 41.3% were female, and 23.5% with diabetes mellitus. The median (interquartile) follow-up time was 34 (21-48) months. After adjusting for confounders, peritonitis was independently associated with 95% increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval: 1.46-2.60), 90% increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 1.90; 95% confidence interval: 1.28-2.81) and near 4-fold increased risk of infection-related mortality (hazard ratio, 4.94; 95% confidence interval: 2.47-9.86). Further analyses showed that peritonitis was not significantly associated with mortality within 2 years of peritoneal dialysis initiation, but strongly influenced mortality in patients dialysed longer than 2 years. Peritonitis was independently associated with higher risk of all-cause, cardiovascular and infection-related mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients, and its impact on mortality was more significant in patients with longer peritoneal dialysis duration.

Mortality of Youth Offenders Along a Continuum of Justice System Involvement.

PubMed

Aalsma, Matthew C; Lau, Katherine S L; Perkins, Anthony J; Schwartz, Katherine; Tu, Wanzhu; Wiehe, Sarah E; Monahan, Patrick; Rosenman, Marc B

2016-03-01

Black male youth are at high risk of homicide and criminal justice involvement. This study aimed to determine how early mortality among youth offenders varies based on race; gender; and the continuum of justice system involvement: arrest, detention, incarceration, and transfer to adult courts. Criminal and death records of 49,479 youth offenders (ages 10-18 years at first arrest) in Marion County, Indiana, from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2011, were examined. Statistical analyses were completed in November 2014. From 1999 to 2011 (aggregate exposure, 386,709 person-years), 518 youth offender deaths occurred. The most common cause of death was homicide (48.2%). The mortality rate of youth offenders was nearly 1.5 times greater than that among community youth (standardized mortality ratio, 1.48). The youth offender mortality rate varied depending on the severity of justice system involvement. Arrested youth had the lowest rate of mortality (90/100,000), followed by detained youth (165/100,000); incarcerated youth (216/100,000); and youth transferred to adult court (313/100,000). A proportional hazards model demonstrated that older age, male gender, and more severe justice system involvement 5 years post-arrest predicted shorter time to mortality. Youth offenders face greater risk for early death than community youth. Among these, black male youth face higher risk of early mortality than their white male counterparts. However, regardless of race/ethnicity, mortality rates for youth offenders increase as youth involvement in the justice system becomes more protracted and severe. Thus, justice system involvement is a significant factor to target for intervention. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk modeling for ventricular assist device support in post-cardiotomy shock.

PubMed

Alsoufi, Bahaaldin; Rao, Vivek; Tang, Augustine; Maganti, Manjula; Cusimano, Robert

2012-04-01

Post-cardiotomy shock (PCS) has a complex etiology. Although treatment with inotrops and intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) support improves cardiac performance, end-organ injuries are common and lead to prolonged ICU stay, extended hospitalization and increased mortality. Early consideration of mechanical circulatory support may prevent such complications and improve outcome. Between January 1997 and January 2002, 321 patients required IABP and inotropic support for PCS following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) at our institution. Perioperative variables including age, mixed venous saturation (MVO2), inotropic requirements and LV function were analyzed using multivariate statistical methods. All explanatory variables with a univariate p value <0.10 were entered into a stepwise logistic regression model to predict hospital mortality. Odds ratios from significant variables (p < 0.05) in the regression model were used to compose a risk score. Overall hospital mortality was 16%. The independent risk factors for mortality in this population were: MVO2 < 60% (OR = 3.2), milrinone > 0.5 μg/kg/min (OR = 3.2), age > 75 (OR = 2.7), adrenaline > 0.1 μg/kg/min (OR = 1.5). A 15-point risk score was developed based on the regression model. Hospital mortality in patients with a score >6 was 46% (n = 13/28), 3-6 was 31% (n = 9/29) and <3 was 11% (n = 29/264). A significant proportion of patients with PCS continue to face high mortality despite IABP and inotropic support. Advanced age, heavy inotropic dependency and poor oxygen delivery all predicted increased risk for death. Further investigation is needed to assess whether early institution of VAD support could improve outcome in this high-risk group of patients.

Models to compare management options for a protogynous fish.

PubMed

Heppell, Selina S; Heppell, Scott A; Coleman, Felicia C; Koenig, Christopher C

2006-02-01

Populations of gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a hermaphroditic grouper, have experienced a dramatic shift in sex ratio over the past 25 years due to a decline in older age classes. The highly female-skewed sex ratio can be predicted as a consequence of increased fishing mortality that truncates the age distribution, and raises some concern about the overall fitness of the population. Management efforts may need to be directed toward maintenance of sex ratio as well as stock size, with evaluations of recruitment based on sex ratio or male stock size in addition to the traditional female-based stock-recruitment relationship. We used two stochastic, age-structured models to heuristically compare the effects of reducing fishing mortality on different life history stages and the relative impact of reductions in fertilization rates that may occur with highly skewed sex ratios. Our response variables included population size, sex ratio, lost egg fertility, and female spawning stock biomass. Population growth rates were highest for scenarios that reduced mortality for female gag (nearshore closure), while improved sex ratios were obtained most quickly with spawning reserves. The effect of reduced fertility through sex ratio bias was generally low but depended on the management scenario employed. Our results demonstrate the utility of evaluation of fishery management scenarios through model analysis and simulation, the synergistic interaction of life history and response to changes in mortality rates, and the importance of defining management goals.

Bioenergetics estimate of the effects of stocking density on hatchery production of smallmouth bass fingerlings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robel, G.L.; Fisher, W.L.

1999-01-01

Production of and consumption by hatchery-reared tingerling (age-0) smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu at various simulated stocking densities were estimated with a bioenergetics model. Fish growth rates and pond water temperatures during the 1996 growing season at two hatcheries in Oklahoma were used in the model. Fish growth and simulated consumption and production differed greatly between the two hatcheries, probably because of differences in pond fertilization and mortality rates. Our results suggest that appropriate stocking density depends largely on prey availability as affected by pond fertilization and on fingerling mortality rates. The bioenergetics model provided a useful tool for estimating production at various stocking density rates. However, verification of physiological parameters for age-0 fish of hatchery-reared species is needed.

Mortality of breast cancer in Taiwan, 1971-2010: temporal changes and an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Ho, M-L; Hsiao, Y-H; Su, S-Y; Chou, M-C; Liaw, Y-P

2015-01-01

The current paper describes the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer mortality in Taiwan. Female breast cancer mortality data were collected from the Taiwan death registries for 1971-2010. The annual percentage changes, age- standardised mortality rates (ASMR) and age-period-cohort model were calculated. The mortality rates increased with advancing age groups when fixing the period. The percentage change in the breast cancer mortality rate increased from 54.79% at aged 20-44 years, to 149.78% in those aged 45-64 years (between 1971-75 and 2006-10). The mortality rates in the 45-64 age group increased steadily from 1971 to 1975 and 2006-10. The 1951 birth cohorts (actual birth cohort; 1947-55) showed peak mortalities in both the 50-54 and 45-49 age groups. We found that the 1951 birth cohorts had the greatest mortality risk from breast cancer. This might be attributed to the DDT that was used in large amounts to prevent deaths from malaria in Taiwan. However, future researches require DDT data to evaluate the association between breast cancer and DDT use.

Infant mortality and intra-household competition in the Northern Islands of Orkney, Scotland, 1855-2001.

PubMed

Sparks, Corey S; Wood, James W; Johnson, Patricia L

2013-06-01

This study applies principles from the theory of household life cycles to the study of early childhood mortality in the population of the Northern Orkney Islands, Scotland. The primary hypothesis is that unfavorable household economic conditions resulting from changes in household demographic composition increase the risk of death for children under the age of 5 years because of limited resources and intra-household competition. We apply Cox proportional hazards models to nearly 5,000 linked birth and death records from the Northern Orkney Islands, Scotland, from the period 1855 to 2001. The dependent variable is the child's risk of death before age 5. Findings suggest that children in households with unfavorable age compositions face higher risk of death. This elevated risk of death continues once heterogeneity among children, islands, and households is controlled. Results also show differential risk of death for male children, children of higher birth orders, and twin births. The analyses present evidence for intra-household competition in this historic setting. The most convincing evidence of competition is found in the effects of household consumer/producer ratios and twinning on child mortality risks. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Do commonly used frailty models predict mortality, loss of autonomy and mental decline in older adults in northwestern Russia? A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Korystina, Elena; Zelenukha, Dmitry; Tadjibaev, Pulodjon; Gurina, Natalia; Turkeshi, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

2016-05-09

Frailty prevalence differs across countries depending on the models used to assess it that are based on various conceptual and operational definitions. This study aims to assess the clinical validity of three frailty models among community-dwelling older adults in north-western Russia where there is a higher incidence of cardiovascular disease and lower life expectancy than in European countries. The Crystal study is a population-based prospective cohort study in Kolpino, St. Petersburg, Russia. A random sample of the population living in the district was stratified into two age groups: 65-75 (n = 305) and 75+ (n = 306) and had a baseline comprehensive health assessment followed by a second one after 33.4 +/-3 months. The total observation time was 47 +/-14.6 months. Frailty was assessed according to the models of Fried, Puts and Steverink-Slaets. Its association with mortality at 5 years follow-up as well as dependency, mental and physical decline at around 2.5 years follow up was explored by multivariable and time-to-event analyses. Mortality was predicted independently from age, sex and comorbidities only by the frail status of the Fried model in those over 75 years old [HR (95 % CI) = 2.50 (1.20-5.20)]. Mental decline was independently predicted only by pre-frail [OR (95 % CI) = 0.24 (0.10-0.55)] and frail [OR (95 % CI) = 0.196 (0.06-0.67)] status of Fried model in those 65-75 years old. The prediction of dependency and physical decline by pre-frail and frail status of any the three frailty models was not statistically significant in this cohort of older adults. None of the three frailty models was valid at predicting 5 years mortality and disability, mental and physical decline at 2.5 years in a cohort of older adults in north-west Russia. Frailty by the Fried model had only limited value for mortality in those 75 years old and mental decline in those 65-75 years old. Further research is needed to identify valid frailty markers for older adults in this population.

Mortality among adults: gender and socioeconomic differences in a Brazilian city.

PubMed

Belon, Ana Paula; Barros, Marilisa Ba; Marín-León, Letícia

2012-01-17

Population groups living in deprived areas are more exposed to several risk factors for diseases and injuries and die prematurely when compared with their better-off counterparts. The strength and patterning of the relationships between socioeconomic status and mortality differ depending on age, gender, and diseases or injuries. The objective of this study was to identify the magnitude of social differences in mortality among adult residents in a city of one million people in Southeastern Brazil in 2004-2008. Forty-nine health care unit areas were classified into three homogeneous strata using 2000 Census small-area socioeconomic indicators. Mortality rates by age group, sex, and cause of death were calculated for each socioeconomic stratum. Mortality rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for the low and middle socioeconomic strata compared with the high stratum. In general, age-specific mortality rates showed a social gradient of increasing risks of death with decreasing socioeconomic status. The highest mortality rate ratios between low and high strata were observed in the 30-39 age group for males (RR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.59-1.89), and females (RR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.65-2.15). Concerning specific diseases and injuries, the greatest inequalities between low and high strata were found for homicides (RR = 2.44, 95% CI 2.27-2.61) and traffic accidents (RR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.45-1.83) among males. For women, the highest inequalities between the low and high strata were for chronic respiratory diseases (RR = 2.19, 95% CI 1.94-2.45) and acute myocardial infarction (RR = 1.93, 95% CI 1.79-2.07). Only breast cancer showed a reversed social gradient (RR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.48-0.92). Inequalities in circulatory and respiratory diseases mortality were greater among females than among males. Substandard living conditions are related to unhealthy behaviors, as well as difficulties in accessing health care. Therefore, the Brazilian Health System (SUS) must ensure greater access to primary and hospital care, and develop programs that promote healthier lifestyles among vulnerable groups to reduce social inequalities in mortality. Moreover, because deaths from external causes are concentrated in poor areas, cooperative and coordinated intersectoral actions should be taken to combat the deadly violence cycle.

A Practical Clinical Approach to the Treatment of Nicotine Dependence in Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Upadhyaya, Himanshu; Deas, Deborah; Brady, Kathleen

2005-01-01

Cigarette smoking in the United States is predominantly a pediatric disorder and causes significant morbidity and mortality; tobacco is related to more than 400,000 deaths in the United States annually. Psychiatric comorbidity is associated with smoking, and early-onset smoking (before age 13) is robustly associated with psychopathology later in…

Management and decision-making process leading to coronary angiography and revascularization in octogenarians with coronary artery disease: Insights from a large single-center registry.

PubMed

Martin, Anne-Céline; Dumas, Florence; Spaulding, Christian; Manzo-Silberman, Stéphane

2015-05-01

Cardiovascular diseases remain the most common cause of death in older adults. Guidelines state that advanced age alone should not limit the use of invasive therapy. However, coronary angiograms and subsequent revascularization are often not carried out in octogenarians. The benefit/risk balance of an invasive strategy and the decision-making process are not clearly defined. The aim of the present study was to assess the decision-making process, and the in-hospital and long-term mortality based on the clinical presentation, the diagnostic approach (coronary angiogram or conservative) and the therapeutic management (revascularization or not). The present study was a single-center retrospective analysis. A total of 522 patients aged ≥80 years, with a diagnosis of coronary disease were included from 2003 to 2009. The mean age was 82 ± 2.6 years. A total of 195 of 522 (37%) presented with a ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). A coronary angiogram was carried out in 316 patients (60.5%) and 71% were treated by percutaneous coronary revascularization. A total of 39.5% were considered ineligible for a coronary angiogram due to cardiological reasons or comorbidities. Excluding cardiogenic shock, overall in-hospital mortality was 4.9%. Clinical presentation strongly influenced both in-hospital and 6-month mortality rates (cardiogenic shock 20% and 28.7%, stable angina 1% and 4.1%, respectively, P < 0.001). Long-term mortality was reduced in the coronary angiography arm compared with the conservative group (14.3% vs 20.9%, P = 0.04) whether or not revascularization was carried out. In the present study, in octogenarians, long-term mortality was lower in the group of patients who underwent a coronary angiogram, regardless of revascularization. The selection process for coronary angiography and angioplasty was mostly influenced by the existence of age-associated comorbidities. Risk prediction models are required to reduce age-dependent biases. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Mortality by skin color/race and urbanity of Brazilian cities.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Bruno Luciano Carneiro Alves; Luiz, Ronir Raggio

2017-08-01

The skin color/race and urbanity are structural determinants of health. The relationship between these variables produces structure of social stratification that defines inequalities in the experiences of life and death. Thus, this study describes the characteristics of the mortality indicators by skin color/race according level of urbanity and aggregation to the metropolitan region (MR) of 5565 cities in Brazil, controlling for gender and age. Descriptive study which included the calculation of measures relating to 1,050,546 deaths in the year survey of 2010 by skin color/race White, Black, and Brown according to both sexes, for five age groups and three levels of urbanity of cities in Brazil that were aggregated or not to the MR in the year of study. The risk of death was estimated by calculating premature mortality rate (PMR) at 65 years of age, per 100,000 and age adjusted. The structure of mortality by skin color/race Black and Brown reflects worse levels of health and excessive premature deaths, with worse situation for men. The Whites, especially women, tend to live longer and in better health than other racial groups. The age-adjusted PMR indicates distinct risk of death by skin color/race, this risk was higher in men than in women and in Blacks than in other racial groups of both sexes. There have been precarious levels of health in the urban space and the MR has intensified these inequalities. The research pointed out that the racial inequality in the mortality was characterized by interaction of race with other individual and contextual determinants of health. Those Blacks and Browns are the groups most vulnerable to the iniquities associated with occurrence of death, but these differences in the profile and the risk of death depend on the level of urbanity and aggregation MR of Brazilian cities in 2010.

Differential characteristics of bacteraemias according to age in a community hospital.

PubMed

Toyas, C; Aspiroz, C; Martínez-Álvarez, R M; Ezpeleta, A I; Arazo, P; Ferrando, J C

To describe the characteristics of bacteraemias, according to age, in a community hospital. A prospective study of bacteraemias was conducted in 2011. The patients were classified into 3 age groups: younger than 65 years, 65 to 79, and 80 or older. The study collected variables on the patients and episodes. The study analysed 233 bacteraemias in 227 patients (23.8% in those younger than 65 years; 38.3% in the 65 to 79 age group; and 37.9% in the 80 years or older group). The most common underlying disease in all the groups was diabetes mellitus. In the most elderly patients, the Charlson index was highest, there was a lower proportion of exogenous factors, and almost 25% were severely dependent (Barthel index<20). Escherichia coli was the most common germ, and the main focus was urological. The patients aged 80 years or older had predominantly healthcare-associated infections, less severe symptoms (sepsis) (66.3%) and higher mortality (29.1%) compared with the younger patients. The very elderly patients with bacteraemia presented fewer exogenous factors, greater comorbidity and a poorer functional situation. The most common focus was urological and the origin was healthcare related. Despite their less severe clinical presentation, these patients' mortality was greater, and their degree of dependence was a highly relevant independent risk factor. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

Systemic hydrocortisone to prevent bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm infants (the SToP-BPD study); a multicenter randomized placebo controlled trial

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Randomized controlled trials have shown that treatment of chronically ventilated preterm infants after the first week of life with dexamethasone reduces the incidence of the combined outcome death or bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). However, there are concerns that dexamethasone may increase the risk of adverse neurodevelopmental outcome. Hydrocortisone has been suggested as an alternative therapy. So far no randomized controlled trial has investigated its efficacy when administered after the first week of life to ventilated preterm infants. Methods/Design The SToP-BPD trial is a randomized double blind placebo controlled multicenter study including 400 very low birth weight infants (gestational age < 30 weeks and/or birth weight < 1250 grams), who are ventilator dependent at a postnatal age of 7 - 14 days. Hydrocortisone (cumulative dose 72.5 mg/kg) or placebo is administered during a 22 day tapering schedule. Primary outcome measure is the combined outcome mortality or BPD at 36 weeks postmenstrual age. Secondary outcomes are short term effects on the pulmonary condition, adverse effects during hospitalization, and long-term neurodevelopmental sequelae assessed at 2 years corrected gestational age. Analysis will be on an intention to treat basis. Discussion This trial will determine the efficacy and safety of postnatal hydrocortisone administration at a moderately early postnatal onset compared to placebo for the reduction of the combined outcome mortality and BPD at 36 weeks postmenstrual age in ventilator dependent preterm infants. Trial registration number Netherlands Trial Register (NTR): NTR2768 PMID:22070744

Etiological and Endoscopic Profile of Middle Aged and Elderly Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in a Tertiary Care Hospital in North India: A Retrospective Analysis.

PubMed

Mahajan, Pranav; Chandail, Vijant Singh

2017-01-01

Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is a common medical emergency associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The clinical presentation depends on the amount and location of hemorrhage and the endoscopic profile varies according to different etiology. At present, there are limited epidemiological data on upper GI bleed and associated mortality from India, especially in the middle and elderly age group, which has a higher incidence and mortality from this disease. This study aims to study the clinical and endoscopic profile of middle aged and elderly patients suffering from upper GI bleed to know the etiology of the disease and outcome of the intervention. Out of a total of 1790 patients who presented to the hospital from May 2015 to August 2017 with upper GI bleed, and underwent upper GI endoscopy, data of 1270 patients, aged 40 years and above, was compiled and analyzed retrospectively. All the patients included in the study were above 40 years of age. Majority of the patients were males, with a male to female ratio of 1.6:1. The most common causes of upper GI bleed in these patients were portal hypertension-related (esophageal, gastric and duodenal varices, portal hypertensive gastropathy, and gastric antral vascular ectasia GAVE), seen in 53.62% of patients, followed by peptic ulcer disease (gastric and duodenal ulcers) seen in 17.56% of patients. Gastric erosions/gastritis accounted for 15.20%, and duodenal erosions were seen in 5.8% of upper GI bleeds. The in-hospital mortality rate in our study population was 5.83%. The present study reported portal hypertension as the most common cause of upper GI bleeding, while the most common endoscopic lesions reported were esophageal varices, followed by gastric erosion/gastritis, and duodenal ulcer.

Mortality predictors in a 60-year follow-up of adolescent males: exploring delinquency, socioeconomic status, IQ, high-school drop-out status, and personality.

PubMed

Trumbetta, Susan L; Seltzer, Benjamin K; Gottesman, Irving I; McIntyre, Kathleen M

2010-01-01

To examine whether socioeconomic status (SES), high school (HS) completion, IQ, and personality traits that predict delinquency in adolescence also could explain men's delinquency-related (Dq-r) mortality risk across the life span. Through a 60-year Social Security Death Index (SSDI) follow-up of 1812 men from Hathaway's adolescent normative Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) sample, we examined mortality risk at various ages and at various levels of prior delinquency severity. We examined SES (using family rent level), HS completion, IQ, and MMPI indicators simultaneously as mortality predictors and tested for SES (rent level) interactions with IQ and personality. We ascertained 418 decedents. Dq-r mortality peaked between ages 45 years to 64 years and continued through age 75 years, with high delinquency severity showing earlier and higher mortality risk. IQ and rent level failed to explain Dq-r mortality. HS completion robustly conferred mortality protection through ages 55 years and 75 years, explained IQ and rent level-related risk, but did not fully explain Dq-r risk. Dq-r MMPI scales, Psychopathic Deviate, and Social Introversion, respectively, predicted risk for and protection from mortality by age 75 years, explaining mortality risk otherwise attributable to delinquency. Wiggins' scales also explained Dq-r mortality risk, as Authority Conflict conferred risk for and Social Maladjustment and Hypomania conferred protection from mortality by age 75 years. HS completion robustly predicts mortality by ages 55 years and 75 years. Dq-r personality traits predict mortality by age 75 years, accounting, in part, for Dq-r mortality.

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims.

PubMed

Wennberg, David E; Sharp, Sandra M; Bevan, Gwyn; Skinner, Jonathan S; Gottlieb, Daniel J; Wennberg, John E

2014-04-10

To compare the performance of two new approaches to risk adjustment that are free of the influence of observational intensity with methods that depend on diagnoses listed in administrative databases. Administrative data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. Cross sectional analysis. 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in one of 306 hospital referral regions in the United States in 2007 (n = 5,153,877). The effect of health risk adjustment on age, sex, and race adjusted mortality and spending rates among hospital referral regions using four indices: the standard Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services--Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) index used by the US Medicare program (calculated from diagnoses listed in Medicare's administrative database); a visit corrected HCC index (to reduce the effects of observational intensity on frequency of diagnoses); a poverty index (based on US census); and a population health index (calculated using data on incidence of hip fractures and strokes, and responses from a population based annual survey of health from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Estimated variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates across hospital referral regions was reduced using the indices based on population health, poverty, and visit corrected HCC, but increased using the standard HCC index. Most of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality was explained (in terms of weighted R2) by the population health index: R2=0.65. The other indices explained less: R2=0.20 for the visit corrected HCC index; 0.19 for the poverty index, and 0.02 for the standard HCC index. The residual variation in age, sex, race, and price adjusted spending per capita across the 306 hospital referral regions explained by the indices (in terms of weighted R2) were 0.50 for the standard HCC index, 0.21 for the population health index, 0.12 for the poverty index, and 0.07 for the visit corrected HCC index, implying that only a modest amount of the variation in spending can be explained by factors most closely related to mortality. Further, once the HCC index is visit corrected it accounts for almost none of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted spending. Health risk adjustment using either the poverty index or the population health index performed substantially better in terms of explaining actual mortality than the indices that relied on diagnoses from administrative databases; the population health index explained the majority of residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality. Owing to the influence of observational intensity on diagnoses from administrative databases, the standard HCC index over-adjusts for regional differences in spending. Research to improve health risk adjustment methods should focus on developing measures of risk that do not depend on observation influenced diagnoses recorded in administrative databases.

Neonatal hypothermia in low-resource settings.

PubMed

Mullany, Luke C

2010-12-01

Hypothermia among newborns is considered an important contributor to neonatal morbidity and mortality in low-resource settings. However, in these settings only limited progress has been made towards understanding the risk of mortality after hypothermia, describing how this relationship is dependent on both the degree or severity of exposure and the gestational age and weight status of the baby, and implementing interventions to mitigate both exposure and the associated risk of poor outcomes. Given the centrality of averting neonatal mortality to achieving global milestones towards reductions in child mortality by 2015, recent years have seen substantial resources and efforts implemented to improve understanding of global epidemiology of neonatal health. In this article, a summary of the burden, consequences, and risk factors of neonatal hypothermia in low-resources settings is presented, with a particular focus on community-based data. Context-appropriate interventions for reducing hypothermia exposure and the role of these interventions in reducing global neonatal mortality burden are explored. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Survival and Associated Risk Factors for Mortality Among Infants with Critical Congenital Heart Disease in a Developing Country.

PubMed

Mat Bah, Mohd Nizam; Sapian, Mohd Hanafi; Jamil, Mohammad Tamim; Alias, Amelia; Zahari, Norazah

2018-05-14

Critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. However, data on survival of CCHD and the risk factors associated with its mortality are limited. This study examined CCHD survival and the risk factors for CCHD mortality. Using a retrospective cohort study of infants born with CCHD from 2006 to 2015, survival over 10 years was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis, and the risk factors for mortality were analyzed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression. A total of 491 CCHD cases were included in the study, with an overall mortality rate of 34.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 30.6-39.2). The intervention/surgical mortality rate was 9.8% ≤ 30 days and 11.5% > 30 days after surgery, and 17% died before surgery or intervention. The median age at death was 2.7 months [first quartile: 1 month, third quartile: 7.3 months]. The CCHD survival rate was 90.4% (95% CI 89-91.8%) at 1 month, 69.3% (95% CI 67.2-71.4%) at 1 year, 63.4% (95% CI 61.1-65.7%) at 5 years, and 61.4% (95% CI 58.9-63.9%) at 10 years. Weight of < 2 kg at diagnosis, associated syndromes, poor pre-operative condition, and non-duct-dependent CCHD were independent risk factors for poor survival, with hazard ratios of 2.61, 2.10, 2.22, and 1.70, respectively. CCHD is associated with a high mortality rate. Low weight, poor pre-operative condition, associated syndromes, and non-duct-dependent CCHD are significant risk factors affecting the survival of infants with CCHD.

Education and Health: the Role of Cognitive Ability*

PubMed Central

Bijwaard, Govert; Veenman, Justus

2015-01-01

We aim to disentangle the relative impact of (i) cognitive ability, and (ii) education on health and mortality using a structural equation model suggested by Conti et al. (2010). We extend their model by allowing for a duration dependent variable (mortality), and an ordinal educational variable. Data come from a Dutch cohort born between 1937 and 1941, including detailed measures of cognitive ability and family background in the final grade of primary school. The data are linked to the mortality register 1995–2011, such that we observe mortality between ages 55 and 75. The results suggest that at least half of the unconditional survival differences between educational groups are due to a ‘selection effect’, primarily on the basis of cognitive ability. Conditional survival differences across those having finished just primary school and those entering secondary education are still substantial, and amount to a 4 years gain in life expectancy, on average. PMID:25912224

Health care reform at trauma centers--mortality, complications, and length of stay.

PubMed

Shafi, Shahid; Barnes, Sunni; Nicewander, David; Ballard, David; Nathens, Avery B; Ingraham, Angela M; Hemmila, Mark; Goble, Sandra; Neal, Melanie; Pasquale, Michael; Fildes, John J; Gentilello, Larry M

2010-12-01

The Trauma Quality Improvement Program has demonstrated existence of significant variations in risk-adjusted mortality across trauma centers. However, it is unknown whether centers with lower mortality rates also have reduced length of stay (LOS), with associated cost savings. We hypothesized that LOS is not primarily determined by unmodifiable factors, such as age and injury severity, but is primarily dependent on the development of potentially preventable complications. The National Trauma Data Bank (2002-2006) was used to include patients (older than 16 years) with at least one severe injury (Abbreviated Injury Scale score ≥ 3) from Level I and II trauma centers (217,610 patients, 151 centers). A previously validated risk-adjustment algorithm was used to calculate observed-to-expected mortality ratios for each center. Poisson regression was used to determine the relationship between LOS, observed-to-expected mortality ratios, and complications while controlling for confounding factors, such as age, gender, mechanism, insurance status, comorbidities, and injuries and their severity. Large variations in LOS (median, 4-8 days) were observed across trauma centers. There was no relationship between mortality and LOS. The most important predictor of LOS was complications, which were associated with a 62% increase. Injury severity score, shock, gunshot wounds, brain injuries, intensive care unit admission, and comorbidities were less important predictors of LOS. Quality improvement programs focusing on mortality alone may not be associated with reduced LOS. Hence, the Trauma Quality Improvement Program should also focus on processes of care that reduce complications, thereby shortening LOS, which may lead to significant cost savings at trauma centers.

Ward mortality after ICU discharge: a multicenter validation of the Sabadell score.

PubMed

Fernandez, Rafael; Serrano, Jose Manuel; Umaran, Isabel; Abizanda, Ricard; Carrillo, Andres; Lopez-Pueyo, Maria Jesus; Rascado, Pedro; Balerdi, Begoña; Suberviola, Borja; Hernandez, Gonzalo

2010-07-01

Tools for predicting post-ICU patients' outcomes are scarce. A single-center study showed that the Sabadell score classified patients into four groups with clear-cut differences in ward mortality. To validate the Sabadell score using a prospective multicenter approach. Thirty-one ICUs in Spain. All patients admitted in the 3-month study period. We recorded variables at ICU admission (age, sex, severity of illness, and do-not-resuscitate orders), during the ICU stay (ICU-specific treatments, ICU-acquired infection, and acute renal failure), and at ICU discharge (Sabadell score). Statistical analyses included one-way ANOVA and multiple regression analysis with ward mortality as the dependent variable. We admitted 4,132 patients (mean age 61.5 +/- 16.7 years) with mean predicted mortality of 23.8 +/- 22.7%; 545 patients (13%) died in the ICU and 3,587 (87%) were discharged to the ward. Overall ward mortality was 6.7%; ward mortality was 1.5% (36/2,422) in patients with score 0 (good prognosis), 9% (64/725) in patients with score 1 (long-term poor prognosis), 23% (79/341) in patients with score 2 (short-term poor prognosis), and 64% (63/99) in patients with score 3 (expected hospital death). Variables associated with ward mortality in the multivariate analysis were predicted risk of death (OR 1.016), ICU readmission (OR 5.9), Sabadell score 1 (OR 4.7), Sabadell score 2 (OR 15.7), and Sabadell score 3 (OR 107.2). We confirm the ability of the Sabadell score at ICU discharge to define four groups of patients with very different likelihoods of hospital survival.

Teenage motherhood and infant mortality in Bangladesh: maternal age-dependent effect of parity one.

PubMed

Alam, N

2000-04-01

Nuptiality norms in rural Bangladesh favour birth during the teenage years. An appreciable proportion of teenage births are, in fact, second births. This study examines the relationship between teenage fertility and high infant mortality. It is hypothesized that if physiological immaturity is responsible, then the younger the mother, the higher would be the mortality risk, and the effect of mother's 'teenage' on mortality in infancy, particularly in the neonatal period, would be higher for the second than the first births. Vital events recorded by the longitudinal demographic surveillance system in Matlab, Bangladesh, in 1990-92 were used. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effects on early and late neonatal (0-3 days and 4-28 days respectively) and post-neonatal mortality of the following variables: mother's age at birth, parity, education and religion, sex of the child, household economic status and exposure to a health intervention programme. The younger the mother, the higher were the odds of her child dying as a neonate, and the odds were higher for second children than first children of teenage mothers. First-born children were at higher odds of dying in infancy than second births if mothers were in their twenties. Unfavourable mother's socioeconomic conditions were weakly, but significantly, associated with higher odds of dying during late neonatal and post-neonatal periods. The results suggest that physical immaturity may be of major importance in determining the relationship between teenage fertility and high neonatal mortality.

Temperature-induced excess mortality in Moscow, Russia.

PubMed

Revich, Boris; Shaposhnikov, Dmitri

2008-05-01

After considering the observed long-term trends in average monthly temperatures distribution in Moscow, the authors evaluated how acute mortality responded to changes in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the year, and identified vulnerable population groups, by age and causes of death. A plot of the basic mortality-temperature relationship indicated that this relationship was V-shaped with the minimum around 18 degrees C. Each 1 degree C increment of average daily temperature above 18 degrees C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 2.8%, from coronary heart disease by 2.7%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 4.7%, and from respiratory diseases by 8.7%, with a lag of 0 or 1 day. Each 1 degrees C drop of average daily temperature from +18 degrees C to -10 degrees C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 0.49%, from coronary heart disease by 0.57%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 0.78%, and from respiratory diseases by 1.5%, with lags of maximum association varying from 3 days for non-accidental mortality to 6 days for cerebrovascular mortality. In the age group 75+ years, corresponding risks were consistently higher by 13-30%. The authors also estimated the increase in non-accidental deaths against the variation of daily temperatures. For each 1 degrees C increase of variation of temperature throughout the day, mortality increased by 0.3-1.9%, depending on other assumptions of the model.

Temperature-induced excess mortality in Moscow, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revich, Boris; Shaposhnikov, Dmitri

2008-05-01

After considering the observed long-term trends in average monthly temperatures distribution in Moscow, the authors evaluated how acute mortality responded to changes in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the year, and identified vulnerable population groups, by age and causes of death. A plot of the basic mortality temperature relationship indicated that this relationship was V-shaped with the minimum around 18°C. Each 1°C increment of average daily temperature above 18°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 2.8%, from coronary heart disease by 2.7%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 4.7%, and from respiratory diseases by 8.7%, with a lag of 0 or 1 day. Each 1°C drop of average daily temperature from +18°C to -10°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 0.49%, from coronary heart disease by 0.57%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 0.78%, and from respiratory diseases by 1.5%, with lags of maximum association varying from 3 days for non-accidental mortality to 6 days for cerebrovascular mortality. In the age group 75+ years, corresponding risks were consistently higher by 13 30%. The authors also estimated the increase in non-accidental deaths against the variation of daily temperatures. For each 1°C increase of variation of temperature throughout the day, mortality increased by 0.3 1.9%, depending on other assumptions of the model.

Insufficient DNA methylation affects healthy aging and promotes age-related health problems.

PubMed

Liu, Liang; van Groen, Thomas; Kadish, Inga; Li, Yuanyuan; Wang, Deli; James, Smitha R; Karpf, Adam R; Tollefsbol, Trygve O

2011-08-01

DNA methylation plays an integral role in development and aging through epigenetic regulation of genome function. DNA methyltransferase 1 (Dnmt1) is the most prevalent DNA methyltransferase that maintains genomic methylation stability. To further elucidate the function of Dnmt1 in aging and age-related diseases, we exploited the Dnmt1+/- mouse model to investigate how Dnmt1 haploinsufficiency impacts the aging process by assessing the changes of several major aging phenotypes. We confirmed that Dnmt1 haploinsufficiency indeed decreases DNA methylation as a result of reduced Dnmt1 expression. To assess the effect of Dnmt1 haploinsufficiency on general body composition, we performed dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry analysis and showed that reduced Dnmt1 activity decreased bone mineral density and body weight, but with no significant impact on mortality or body fat content. Using behavioral tests, we demonstrated that Dnmt1 haploinsufficiency impairs learning and memory functions in an age-dependent manner. Taken together, our findings point to the interesting likelihood that reduced genomic methylation activity adversely affects the healthy aging process without altering survival and mortality. Our studies demonstrated that cognitive functions of the central nervous system are modulated by Dnmt1 activity and genomic methylation, highlighting the significance of the original epigenetic hypothesis underlying memory coding and function.

Dialysis-dependent acute kidney injury in children with end-stage liver disease: prevalence, dialysis modalities and outcome.

PubMed

Kreuzer, Martin; Gähler, Dagmar; Rakenius, Annette C; Prüfe, Jenny; Jack, Thomas; Pfister, Eva-Doreen; Pape, Lars

2015-12-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a major complication in children with hepatic failure which leads to increased morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to provide paediatric data on the prevalence of dialysis-dependent AKI (dAKI), the feasibility and efficacy of dialysis methods and outcome. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 367 children listed for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in our centre during the past decade. Data on 30 children (15 boys, 15 girls) were compiled for retrospective analysis, and data on dialysis feasibility and efficacy were available for 26 of these. Median age was 3.5 (range 0.4-17.7) years. Median MELD (Model For End-Stage Liver Disease) score was 33. dAKI was caused by hepato-renal syndrome in 16 of the 30 children. Twenty-one patients were treated with continuous veno-venous haemofiltration (CVVH), and nine patients received peritoneal dialysis (PD). Overall mortality was 77%. Mortality within the PD-group was 100 % versus 67% in the CVVH-group (p = 0.039). Urea reduction rate within the first 24 h of treatment was 12.9% in the PD group and 23.5% in the CVVH group (p = 0.019). Children with end-stage liver disease have a high risk for dAKI associated with high mortality. CVVH is associated with better efficacy and less mortality than PD.

Validation of the CORB75 (confusion, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age ≥ 75 years) as a simpler pneumonia severity rule.

PubMed

Ochoa-Gondar, O; Vila-Corcoles, A; Rodriguez-Blanco, T; Hospital, I; Salsench, E; Ansa, X; Saun, N

2014-04-01

This study compares the ability of two simpler severity rules (classical CRB65 vs. proposed CORB75) in predicting short-term mortality in elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). A population-based study was undertaken involving 610 patients ≥ 65 years old with radiographically confirmed CAP diagnosed between 2008 and 2011 in Tarragona, Spain (350 cases in the derivation cohort, 260 cases in the validation cohort). Severity rules were calculated at the time of diagnosis, and 30-day mortality was considered as the dependent variable. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was used to compare the discriminative power of the severity rules. Eighty deaths (46 in the derivation and 34 in the validation cohorts) were observed, which gives a mortality rate of 13.1 % (15.6 % for hospitalized and 3.3 % for outpatient cases). After multivariable analyses, besides CRB (confusion, respiration rate ≥ 30/min, systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg or diastolic ≤ 60 mmHg), peripheral oxygen saturation (≤ 90 %) and age ≥ 75 years appeared to be associated with increasing 30-day mortality in the derivation cohort. The model showed adequate calibration for the derivation and validation cohorts. A modified CORB75 scoring system (similar to the classical CRB65, but adding oxygen saturation and increasing the age to 75 years) was constructed. The AUC statistics for predicting mortality in the derivation and validation cohorts were 0.79 and 0.82, respectively. In the derivation cohort, a CORB75 score ≥ 2 showed 78.3 % sensitivity and 65.5 % specificity for mortality (in the validation cohort, these were 82.4 and 71.7 %, respectively). The proposed CORB75 scoring system has good discriminative power in predicting short-term mortality among elderly people with CAP, which supports its use for severity assessment of these patients in primary care.

Predictors of mortality in the elderly after open repair for perforated peptic ulcer disease.

PubMed

Daniel, Vijaya T; Wiseman, Jason T; Flahive, Julie; Santry, Heena P

2017-07-01

As the U.S. population ages and the number of emergent surgical repairs for perforated peptic ulcer disease (PUD) rise, contemporary national data evaluating operative outcomes for open surgical repair for perforated PUD among the elderly are lacking. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2007-2014) was queried for patients ≥65 y who underwent open surgical repair for perforated PUD. The primary outcome was 30-d mortality. Secondary outcomes included 30-d postoperative complications. Univariate and multivariable regression analyses were performed. Overall, 2131 patients underwent open surgical repair for perforated PUD. Among those who died, more used steroids preoperatively (15% versus 9%, P = 0.001) and fewer were independent preoperatively (55% versus 83%, P < 0.0001) compared to those who were alive 30-d postoperatively. Common postoperative complications were septic shock (15%) and pneumonia (12%). The overall 30-d mortality rate was 17.7%, with more deaths in subsequent decades of life (65-75 y 13% versus 75-84 y 18% versus >85 y 24%, P < 0.0001). After adjustment for other factors, mortality was significantly associated with older age (85+ versus 65-74 y) (odds ratio [OR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8, 1.7), dependent functional status preoperatively ([OR], 0.2; 95% CI, 0.2, 0.3), and American Society of Anesthesiologist classification ≥4 (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.4, 4.3). At U.S. hospitals, open surgical repair, the accepted treatment of perforated PUD, among the elderly is associated with significant 30-d morbidity and mortality rates that are unacceptably high in our contemporary era. Furthermore, mortality rates are associated with older age. Therefore, as the elderly population continues to increase in the United States, preoperative, perioperative, and postoperative measures must be taken to reduce this high morbidity and mortality rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health and poverty: past, present and prospects for the future.

PubMed

Najman, J M

1993-01-01

Periodically the results of class comparisons in mortality rates have been reported. These reports have permitted comparisons since the earlier part of this century to the present period. The data thus available enables us to make some tentative predictions about the likely magnitude of class inequalities in mortality in the future. We consequently argue that: the concept of class should be abandoned in favour of a more direct measure of economic inequality which emphasises those living in poverty. despite overall declines in mortality for all socioeconomic groups, in the most recent period there has been an increase in the relative mortality disadvantage in some countries. this increase in mortality disadvantage is paralleled by an increase in the proportion of people, particularly children, living in poverty. Five groups constitute the bulk of those living in poverty and, of these, three (single mothers, the aged and the disabled) are likely to increase in numbers in the future, producing a likely increase in class-related mortality inequalities. Reducing these inequalities will depend upon welfare and education initiatives more than on any changes likely to be produced by the health system.

Sex differences in the effects of juvenile and adult diet on age-dependent reproductive effort.

PubMed

Houslay, T M; Hunt, J; Tinsley, M C; Bussière, L F

2015-05-01

Sexual selection should cause sex differences in patterns of resource allocation. When current and future reproductive effort trade off, variation in resource acquisition might further cause sex differences in age-dependent investment, or in sensitivity to changes in resource availability over time. However, the nature and prevalence of sex differences in age-dependent investment remain unclear. We manipulated resource acquisition at juvenile and adult stages in decorated crickets, Gryllodes sigillatus, and assessed effects on sex-specific allocation to age-dependent reproductive effort (calling in males, fecundity in females) and longevity. We predicted that the resource and time demands of egg production would result in relatively consistent female strategies across treatments, whereas male investment should depend sharply on diet. Contrary to expectations, female age-dependent reproductive effort diverged substantially across treatments, with resource-limited females showing much lower and later investment in reproduction; the highest fecundity was associated with intermediate lifespans. In contrast, long-lived males always signalled more than short-lived males, and male age-dependent reproductive effort did not depend on diet. We found consistently positive covariance between male reproductive effort and lifespan, whereas diet altered this covariance in females, revealing sex differences in the benefits of allocation to longevity. Our results support sex-specific selection on allocation patterns, but also suggest a simpler alternative: males may use social feedback to make allocation decisions and preferentially store resources as energetic reserves in its absence. Increased calling effort with age therefore could be caused by gradual resource accumulation, heightened mortality risk over time, and a lack of feedback from available mates. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

[Age diseases depending on geomagnetic field activity inside the womb period].

PubMed

Iamshanov, V A

2010-01-01

Between age diseases two are standing out: oncological and cardiovascular ones. They give a main contribution to mortality of the population. Those who avoid these diseases have a chance to live longer. The author suggests a hypothesis of one common factor, which deviation leads to oncology or cardiovascular illness. Such factor is a production of nitric oxide in the organism, which depends on the geomagnetic activity (GMA). At excess production of nitric oxide the risk of oncopathology (breast cancer, bladder and lung cancer and others) is increased. At low NO level in blood the risk of cardiovascular disease is increased. The ability of the organism to utilize the excess level of NO depends on GMA inside the womb period. The production of nitric oxide in the organism goes by different ways, including NO-synthase activity and destruction of neutrophiles, which depends on the GMA and sun activity.

Lung Cancer Mortality Associated With Smoking and Smoking Cessation Among People Living With HIV in the United States.

PubMed

Reddy, Krishna P; Kong, Chung Yin; Hyle, Emily P; Baggett, Travis P; Huang, Mingshu; Parker, Robert A; Paltiel, A David; Losina, Elena; Weinstein, Milton C; Freedberg, Kenneth A; Walensky, Rochelle P

2017-11-01

Lung cancer has become a leading cause of death among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLWH). Over 40% of PLWH in the United States smoke cigarettes; HIV independently increases the risk of lung cancer. To project cumulative lung cancer mortality by smoking exposure among PLWH in care. Using a validated microsimulation model of HIV, we applied standard demographic data and recent HIV/AIDS epidemiology statistics with specific details on smoking exposure, combining smoking status (current, former, or never) and intensity (heavy, moderate, or light). We stratified reported mortality rates attributable to lung cancer and other non-AIDS-related causes by smoking exposure and accounted for an HIV-conferred independent risk of lung cancer. Lung cancer mortality risk ratios (vs never smokers) for male and female current moderate smokers were 23.6 and 24.2, respectively, and for those who quit smoking at age 40 years were 4.3 and 4.5. In sensitivity analyses, we accounted for nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and for a range of HIV-conferred risks of death from lung cancer and from other non-AIDS-related diseases (eg, cardiovascular disease). Cumulative lung cancer mortality by age 80 years (stratified by sex, age at entry to HIV care, and smoking exposure); total expected lung cancer deaths, accounting for nonadherence to ART. Among 40-year-old men with HIV, estimated cumulative lung cancer mortality for heavy, moderate, and light smokers who continued to smoke was 28.9%, 23.0%, and 18.8%, respectively; for those who quit smoking at age 40 years, it was 7.9%, 6.1%, and 4.3%; and for never smokers, it was 1.6%. Among women, the corresponding mortality for current smokers was 27.8%, 20.9%, and 16.6%; for former smokers, it was 7.5%, 5.2%, and 3.7%; and for never smokers, it was 1.2%. ART-adherent individuals who continued to smoke were 6 to 13 times more likely to die from lung cancer than from traditional AIDS-related causes, depending on sex and smoking intensity. Due to greater AIDS-related mortality risks, individuals with incomplete ART adherence had higher overall mortality but lower lung cancer mortality. Applying model projections to the approximately 644 200 PLWH aged 20 to 64 in care in the United States, 59 900 (9.3%) are expected to die from lung cancer if smoking habits do not change. Those PLWH who adhere to ART but smoke are substantially more likely to die from lung cancer than from AIDS-related causes.

Short-term and long-term risk factors in gastric cancer

PubMed Central

Verlato, Giuseppe; Marrelli, Daniele; Accordini, Simone; Bencivenga, Maria; Di Leo, Alberto; Marchet, Alberto; Petrioli, Roberto; Zoppini, Giacomo; Muggeo, Michele; Roviello, Franco; de Manzoni, Giovanni

2015-01-01

While in chronic diseases, such as diabetes, mortality rates slowly increases with age, in oncological series mortality usually changes dramatically during the follow-up, often in an unpredictable pattern. For instance, in gastric cancer mortality peaks in the first two years of follow-up and declines thereafter. Also several risk factors, such as TNM stage, largely affect mortality in the first years after surgery, while afterward their effect tends to fade. Temporal trends in mortality were compared between a gastric cancer series and a cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. For this purpose, 937 patients, undergoing curative gastrectomy with D1/D2/D3 lymphadenectomy for gastric cancer in three GIRCG (Gruppo Italiano Ricerca Cancro Gastrico = Italian Research Group for Gastric Cancer) centers, were compared with 7148 type 2 diabetic patients from the Verona Diabetes Study. In the early/advanced gastric cancer series, mortality from recurrence peaked to 200 deaths per 1000 person-years 1 year after gastrectomy and then declined, becoming lower than 40 deaths per 1000 person-years after 5 years and lower than 20 deaths after 8 years. Mortality peak occurred earlier in more advanced T and N tiers. At variance, in the Verona diabetic cohort overall mortality slowly increased during a 10-year follow-up, with ageing of the type 2 diabetic patients. Seasonal oscillations were also recorded, mortality being higher during winter than during summer. Also the most important prognostic factors presented a different temporal pattern in the two diseases: while the prognostic significance of T and N stage markedly decrease over time, differences in survival among patients treated with diet, oral hypoglycemic drugs or insulin were consistent throughout the follow-up. Time variations in prognostic significance of main risk factors, their impact on survival analysis and possible solutions were evaluated in another GIRCG series of 568 patients with advanced gastric cancer, undergoing curative gastrectomy with D2/D3 lymphadenectomy. Survival curves in the two different histotypes (intestinal and mixed/diffuse) were superimposed in the first three years of follow-up and diverged thereafter. Likewise, survival curves as a function of site (fundus vs body/antrum) started to diverge after the first year. On the contrary, survival curves differed among age classes from the very beginning, due to different post-operative mortality, which increased from 0.5% in patients aged 65-74 years to 9.9% in patients aged 75-91 years; this discrepancy later disappeared. Accordingly, the proportional hazards assumption of the Cox model was violated, as regards age, site and histology. To cope with this problem, multivariable survival analysis was performed by separately considering either the first two years of follow-up or subsequent years. Histology and site were significant predictors only after two years, while T and N, although significant both in the short-term and in the long-term, became less important in the second part of follow-up. Increasing age was associated with higher mortality in the first two years, but not thereafter. Splitting survival time when performing survival analysis allows to distinguish between short-term and long-term risk factors. Alternative statistical solutions could be to exclude post-operative mortality, to introduce in the model time-dependent covariates or to stratify on variables violating proportionality assumption. PMID:26074682

Short-term and long-term risk factors in gastric cancer.

PubMed

Verlato, Giuseppe; Marrelli, Daniele; Accordini, Simone; Bencivenga, Maria; Di Leo, Alberto; Marchet, Alberto; Petrioli, Roberto; Zoppini, Giacomo; Muggeo, Michele; Roviello, Franco; de Manzoni, Giovanni

2015-06-07

While in chronic diseases, such as diabetes, mortality rates slowly increases with age, in oncological series mortality usually changes dramatically during the follow-up, often in an unpredictable pattern. For instance, in gastric cancer mortality peaks in the first two years of follow-up and declines thereafter. Also several risk factors, such as TNM stage, largely affect mortality in the first years after surgery, while afterward their effect tends to fade. Temporal trends in mortality were compared between a gastric cancer series and a cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. For this purpose, 937 patients, undergoing curative gastrectomy with D1/D2/D3 lymphadenectomy for gastric cancer in three GIRCG (Gruppo Italiano Ricerca Cancro Gastrico = Italian Research Group for Gastric Cancer) centers, were compared with 7148 type 2 diabetic patients from the Verona Diabetes Study. In the early/advanced gastric cancer series, mortality from recurrence peaked to 200 deaths per 1000 person-years 1 year after gastrectomy and then declined, becoming lower than 40 deaths per 1000 person-years after 5 years and lower than 20 deaths after 8 years. Mortality peak occurred earlier in more advanced T and N tiers. At variance, in the Verona diabetic cohort overall mortality slowly increased during a 10-year follow-up, with ageing of the type 2 diabetic patients. Seasonal oscillations were also recorded, mortality being higher during winter than during summer. Also the most important prognostic factors presented a different temporal pattern in the two diseases: while the prognostic significance of T and N stage markedly decrease over time, differences in survival among patients treated with diet, oral hypoglycemic drugs or insulin were consistent throughout the follow-up. Time variations in prognostic significance of main risk factors, their impact on survival analysis and possible solutions were evaluated in another GIRCG series of 568 patients with advanced gastric cancer, undergoing curative gastrectomy with D2/D3 lymphadenectomy. Survival curves in the two different histotypes (intestinal and mixed/diffuse) were superimposed in the first three years of follow-up and diverged thereafter. Likewise, survival curves as a function of site (fundus vs body/antrum) started to diverge after the first year. On the contrary, survival curves differed among age classes from the very beginning, due to different post-operative mortality, which increased from 0.5% in patients aged 65-74 years to 9.9% in patients aged 75-91 years; this discrepancy later disappeared. Accordingly, the proportional hazards assumption of the Cox model was violated, as regards age, site and histology. To cope with this problem, multivariable survival analysis was performed by separately considering either the first two years of follow-up or subsequent years. Histology and site were significant predictors only after two years, while T and N, although significant both in the short-term and in the long-term, became less important in the second part of follow-up. Increasing age was associated with higher mortality in the first two years, but not thereafter. Splitting survival time when performing survival analysis allows to distinguish between short-term and long-term risk factors. Alternative statistical solutions could be to exclude post-operative mortality, to introduce in the model time-dependent covariates or to stratify on variables violating proportionality assumption.

Analysis of mortality trends by specific ethnic groups and age groups in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty; Siri, Zailan

2014-07-01

The number of people surviving until old age has been increasing worldwide. Reduction in fertility and mortality have resulted in increasing survival of populations to later life. This study examines the mortality trends among the three main ethnic groups in Malaysia, namely; the Malays, Chinese and Indians for four important age groups (adolescents, adults, middle age and elderly) for both gender. Since the data on mortality rates in Malaysia is only available in age groups such as 1-5, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 and so on, hence some distribution or interpolation method was essential to expand it to the individual ages. In the study, the Heligman and Pollard model will be used to expand the mortality rates from the age groups to the individual ages. It was found that decreasing trend in all age groups and ethnic groups. Female mortality is significantly lower than male mortality, and the difference may be increasing. Also the mortality rates for females are different than that for males in all ethnic groups, and the difference is generally increasing until it reaches its peak at the oldest age category. Due to the decreasing trend of mortality rates, the government needs to plan for health program to support more elderly people in the coming years.

Distribution and Abundance of Dungeness Crab and Crangon Shrimp and Dredging-Related Mortality of Invertebrates and Fish in Grays Harbor, Washington,

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-01-01

Cont’d). salinity . Crabs were most abundant in spring and least abundant in summer. Diel migrations were evident and dependent upon tidal level, light...driving cycles include: 1. Density- dependent mechanisms based on compensatory influences such as competition for food between young and older crabs...and salinity . Annual mean crab density was greater in the channel than on the flats. Crabs generally changed their diet with age from one consisting

Age structure and mortality of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs: Use of mortality caps to establish realistic management objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quist, M.C.; Stephen, J.L.; Guy, C.S.; Schultz, R.D.

2004-01-01

Age structure, total annual mortality, and mortality caps (maximum mortality thresholds established by managers) were investigated for walleye Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) populations sampled from eight Kansas reservoirs during 1991-1999. We assessed age structure by examining the relative frequency of different ages in the population; total annual mortality of age-2 and older walleyes was estimated by use of a weighted catch curve. To evaluate the utility of mortality caps, we modeled threshold values of mortality by varying growth rates and management objectives. Estimated mortality thresholds were then compared with observed growth and mortality rates. The maximum age of walleyes varied from 5 to 11 years across reservoirs. Age structure was dominated (???72%) by walleyes age 3 and younger in all reservoirs, corresponding to ages that were not yet vulnerable to harvest. Total annual mortality rates varied from 40.7% to 59.5% across reservoirs and averaged 51.1% overall (SE = 2.3). Analysis of mortality caps indicated that a management objective of 500 mm for the mean length of walleyes harvested by anglers was realistic for all reservoirs with a 457-mm minimum length limit but not for those with a 381-mm minimum length limit. For a 500-mm mean length objective to be realized for reservoirs with a 381-mm length limit, managers must either reduce mortality rates (e.g., through restrictive harvest regulations) or increase growth of walleyes. When the assumed objective was to maintain the mean length of harvested walleyes at current levels, the observed annual mortality rates were below the mortality cap for all reservoirs except one. Mortality caps also provided insight on management objectives expressed in terms of proportional stock density (PSD). Results indicated that a PSD objective of 20-40 was realistic for most reservoirs. This study provides important walleye mortality information that can be used for monitoring or for inclusion into population models; these results can also be combined with those of other studies to investigate large-scale differences in walleye mortality. Our analysis illustrates the utility of mortality caps for monitoring walleye populations and for establishing realistic management goals.

Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File

PubMed Central

Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Gavrilova, Natalia S.

2011-01-01

Accurate estimates of mortality at advanced ages are essential to improving forecasts of mortality and the population size of the oldest old age group. However, estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: (1) The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality (heterogeneity effect); (2) standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages and (3) ages of very old people may be exaggerated. One way of obtaining estimates of mortality at extreme ages is to pool together international records of persons surviving to extreme ages with subsequent efforts of strict age validation. This approach helps researchers to resolve the third of the above-mentioned problems but does not resolve the first two problems because of inevitable data heterogeneity when data for people belonging to different birth cohorts and countries are pooled together. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow (monthly) age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation are elaborated. This approach is based on data from the Social Security Administration Death Master File (DMF). Some birth cohorts covered by DMF could be studied by the method of extinct generations. Availability of month of birth and month of death information provides a unique opportunity to obtain hazard rate estimates for every month of age. Study of several single-year extinct birth cohorts shows that mortality trajectory at advanced ages follows the Gompertz law up to the ages 102–105 years without a noticeable deceleration. Earlier reports of mortality deceleration (deviation of mortality from the Gompertz law) at ages below 100 appear to be artifacts of mixing together several birth cohorts with different mortality levels and using cross-sectional instead of cohort data. Age exaggeration and crude assumptions applied to mortality estimates at advanced ages may also contribute to mortality underestimation at very advanced ages. PMID:22308064

Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging.

PubMed

Lee, Ronald; Mason, Andrew

2010-01-01

Across the demographic transition, declining mortality followed by declining fertility produces decades of rising support ratios as child dependency falls. These improving support ratios raise per capita consumption, other things equal, but eventually deteriorate as the population ages. Population aging and the forces leading to it can produce not only frightening declines in support ratios but also very substantial increases in productivity and per capita income by raising investment in physical and human capital. Longer life, lower fertility, and population aging all raise the demand for wealth needed to provide for old-age consumption. This leads to increased capital per worker even as aggregate saving rates fall. However, capital per worker may not rise if the increased demand for wealth is satisfied by increased familial or public pension transfers to the elderly. Thus, institutions and policies matter for the consequences of population aging. The accumulation of human capital also varies across the transition. Lower fertility and mortality are associated with higher human capital investment per child, also raising labor productivity. Together, the positive changes due to human and physical capital accumulation will likely outweigh the problems of declining support ratios. We draw on estimates and analyses from the National Transfer Accounts project to illustrate and quantify these points.

Physical activity (PA) and the disablement process: a 14-year follow-up study of older non-disabled women and men.

PubMed

Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten; Rahmanfard, Naghmeh; Holst, Claus

2012-01-01

Few studies have explored the associations of reported PA (RPA) with the processes underlying the development of disability. The present study was performed to explore RPA among older persons and its association with onset of functional dependence and mortality. Among a probability sample of 1782 community-living persons, aged 75-83 years, we evaluated the 1021 who reported no disability in basic activities of daily living. Participants were followed for a median of 8.34 years in public registers to determine onset of disability and mortality. RPA predicted mortality in older women (HR=1.77, 95%CI=1.42-2.19) and men (HR=1.65, 95%CI=1.27-2.14) over long time intervals. The effect of RPA persisted among permanently disabled older women, after adjusting for age, baseline vulnerability and grade of disability. Low RPA was independently associated with risk of incident disability (HR=1.56, 95%CI=1.10-2.23) in men. Among older women, the association between RPA and incidence of disability was attenuated in analyses that controlled for baseline mobility function. Thus, the association between physical activity and mortality reflected processes different from those underlying a simple relation between physical activity, disability and mortality. Physical activity was an ubiquitous predictor of longevity, but only for women. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Information processing speed and 8-year mortality among community-dwelling elderly Japanese.

PubMed

Iwasa, Hajime; Kai, Ichiro; Yoshida, Yuko; Suzuki, Takao; Kim, Hunkyung; Yoshida, Hideyo

2014-01-01

Cognitive function is an important contributor to health among elderly adults. One reliable measure of cognitive functioning is information processing speed, which can predict incident dementia and is longitudinally related to the incidence of functional dependence. Few studies have examined the association between information processing speed and mortality. This 8-year prospective cohort study design with mortality surveillance examined the longitudinal relationship between information processing speed and all-cause mortality among community-dwelling elderly Japanese. A total of 440 men and 371 women aged 70 years or older participated in this study. The Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST) was used to assess information processing speed. DSST score was used as an independent variable, and age, sex, education level, depressive symptoms, chronic disease, sensory deficit, instrumental activities of daily living, walking speed, and cognitive impairment were used as covariates. During the follow-up period, 182 participants (133 men and 49 women) died. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed that lower DSST score was associated with increased risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.62, 95% CI = 0.97-2.72; HR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.05-2.87; and HR = 2.55, 95% CI = 1.51-4.29, for the third, second, and first quartiles of DSST score, respectively). Slower information processing speed was associated with shorter survival among elderly Japanese.

Determinants of all cause mortality in Poland.

PubMed

Genowska, Agnieszka; Jamiołkowski, Jacek; Szpak, Andrzej; Pajak, Andrzej

2012-01-01

The study objective was to evaluate quantitatively the relationship between demographic characteristics, socio-economic status and medical care resources with all cause mortality in Poland. Ecological study was performed using data for the population of 66 subregions of Poland, obtained from the Central Statistical Office of Poland. The information on the determinants of health and all cause mortality covered the period from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2010. Results for the repeated measures were analyzed using Generalized Estimating Equations GEE model. In the model 16 independent variables describing health determinants were used, including 6 demographic variables, 6 socio-economic variables, 4 medical care variables. The dependent variable, was age standardized all cause mortality rate. There was a large variation in all cause mortality, demographic features, socio-economic characteristics, and medical care resources by subregion. All cause mortality showed weak associations with demographic features, among which only the increased divorce rate was associated with higher mortality rate. Increased education level, salaries, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, local government expenditures per capita and the number of non-governmental organizations per 10 thousand population was associated with decrease in all cause mortality. The increase of unemployment rate was related with a decrease of all cause mortality. Beneficial relationship between employment of medical staff and mortality was observed. Variation in mortality from all causes in Poland was explained partly by variation in socio-economic determinants and health care resources.

Basic science and pathogenesis of ageing with HIV: potential mechanisms and biomarkers.

PubMed

Lagathu, Claire; Cossarizza, Andrea; Béréziat, Véronique; Nasi, Milena; Capeau, Jacqueline; Pinti, Marcello

2017-06-01

: The increased prevalence of age-related comorbidities and mortality is worrisome in ageing HIV-infected patients. Here, we aim to analyse the different ageing mechanisms with regard to HIV infection. Ageing results from the time-dependent accumulation of random cellular damage. Epigenetic modifications and mitochondrial DNA haplogroups modulate ageing. In antiretroviral treatment-controlled patients, epigenetic clock appears to be advanced, and some haplogroups are associated with HIV infection severity. Telomere shortening is enhanced in HIV-infected patients because of HIV and some nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Mitochondria-related oxidative stress and mitochondrial DNA mutations are increased during ageing and also by some nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Overall, increased inflammation or 'inflammageing' is a major driver of ageing and could result from cell senescence with secreted proinflammatory mediators, altered gut microbiota, and coinfections. In HIV-infected patients, the level of inflammation and innate immunity activation is enhanced and related to most comorbidities and to mortality. This status could result, in addition to age, from the virus itself or viral protein released from reservoirs, from HIV-enhanced gut permeability and dysbiosis, from antiretroviral treatment, from frequent cytomegalovirus and hepatitis C virus coinfections, and also from personal and environmental factors, as central fat accumulation or smoking. Adaptive immune activation and immunosenescence are associated with comorbidities and mortality in the general population but are less predictive in HIV-infected patients. Biomarkers to evaluate ageing in HIV-infected patients are required. Numerous systemic or cellular inflammatory, immune activation, oxidative stress, or senescence markers can be tested in serum or peripheral blood mononuclear cells. The novel European Study to Establish Biomarkers of Human Ageing MARK-AGE algorithm, evaluating the biological age, is currently assessed in HIV-infected patients and reveals an advanced biological age. Some enhanced inflammatory or innate immune activation markers are interesting but still not validated for the patient's follow-up. To be able to assess patients' biological age is an important objective to improve their healthspan.

[Infant mortality by cause of death in the Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area, 1976-1986: association with socioeconomic, climatic and air pollution variables].

PubMed

Duchiade, M P; Beltrao, K I

1992-01-01

The Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro (RMR) consists of the capital (the city of Rio de Janeiro) and 13 surrounding cities. The city of Rio de Janeiro itself was divided into 24 rather heterogeneous administrative regions (RAS) based on the income level of their inhabitants, the supply of public services such as water and sewerage, and population density or air pollution. Three different socioeconomic covariables were selected in three residential zones (ZONA) or subareas: the central rich nucleus, the intermediary zone of transition, and the distant periphery. As dependent variables the specific rate of infant, neonatal, or postneonatal mortality were considered for causes. The RMRJ Civil Register mortality data were utilized. A factor of correction was estimated according to the technique of Brass using the fertility rate and the rate of delivery for specific 5-year age groups of mothers. A multivariate analysis, the adjusted generalized linear model (MLG), was used for studying associations between socioeconomic, climatic, and air pollution variables and the levels of mortality. The MLG was formulated by means of the statistical package, GLIM or Generalized Linear Interactive Modelling. Analysis of infant mortality trends during 1976-1986 for the large subareas of RMRJ and the outlying region showed that the peak months of total neonatal and perinatal mortality were March and February, while the lowest months were November and October. May and June represented maximum rates of postneonatal mortality for pneumonia, diarrhea, other respiratory infections, malnutrition, and other diseases. MLG indicated that there was a statistically significant association between the annual mortality rate for selected causes and socioeconomic indicators (INS, FS and Zona); the rates of mortality also varied depending on time (ANO and ANOQ); and the mortality rates also appeared to be associated with the variations of the log of average pollution (LPM).

COHORT EFFECTS OF SUICIDE MORTALITY ARE SEX SPECIFIC IN THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED HONG KONG CHINESE POPULATION, 1976-2010.

PubMed

Chung, Roger Y; Yip, Benjamin H K; Chan, Sandra S M; Wong, Samuel Y S

2016-06-01

To examine temporal variations of age, period, and cohort on suicide mortality rate in Hong Kong (HK) from 1976 to 2010, and speculate the macroenvironmental mechanisms of the observed trends. Poisson age-period-cohort modeling was used to delineate the effects of age, period, and cohort on suicide mortality. Analysis by sex was also conducted to examine if gender difference exists for suicidal behaviours. Age-cohort model provides the best fit to the mortality data, implying that the cohort effect is likely to explain more of the contributions to HK's suicide mortality pattern than the period effect. Risk of suicide mortality increases nonlinearly with age and accelerates after age 65-69 for both sexes. Moreover, the cohort effects differ between the sexes-risk of mortality increases continually for men born after 1961, but no change is observed for women since the 1941 cohort. With increased risk of suicide mortality in younger cohorts and the age effect of suicide mortality, we may see future increase in suicide mortality as these younger cohorts age. Further studies are needed to clarify plausible associations between broader sociohistorical changes in the population impacting psychological risk factors and suicidal behaviour to better inform suicide prevention strategies. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Burden of cancer mortality and differences attributable to demographic aging and risk factors in Argentina, 1986-2011.

PubMed

Pou, Sonia Alejandra; Tumas, Natalia; Coquet, Julia Becaria; Niclis, Camila; Román, María Dolores; Díaz, María Del Pilar

2017-03-09

The world faces an aging population that implies a large number of people affected with chronic diseases. Argentina has reached an advanced stage of demographic transition and presents a comparatively high rate of cancer mortality within Latin America. The objectives of this study were to examine cancer mortality trends in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, between 1986 and 2011, and to analyze the differences attributable to risk variations and demographic changes. Longitudinal series of age-standardized mortality rates for overall, breast and prostate cancers were modeled by Joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change. The Bashir & Estève method was used to split crude mortality rate variation into three components: mortality risk, population age structure and population size. A decreasing cancer age-standardized mortality rates trend was observed (1986-2011 annual percent change: -1.4, 95%CI: -1.6, -1.2 in men; -0.8, 95%CI: -1.0, -0.6 in women), with a significant shift in 1996. There were positive crude mortality rate net changes for overall female cancer, breast and prostate cancers, which were primarily attributable to demographic changes. Inversely, overall male cancer crude mortality rate showed a 9.15% decrease, mostly due to mortality risk. Despite favorable age-standardized mortality rates trends, the influence of population aging reinforces the challenge to control cancer in populations with an increasingly aged demographic structure.

National record linkage study of mortality for a large cohort of opioid users ascertained by drug treatment or criminal justice sources in England, 2005–2009

PubMed Central

Pierce, Matthias; Bird, Sheila M.; Hickman, Matthew; Millar, Tim

2015-01-01

Background Globally, opioid drug use is an important cause of premature mortality. In many countries, opioid using populations are ageing. The current study investigates mortality in a large cohort of opioid users; with a focus on testing whether excess mortality changes with age. Methods 198,247 opioid users in England were identified from drug treatment and criminal justice sources (April, 2005 to March, 2009) and linked to mortality records. Mortality rates and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated by age-group and gender. Results There were 3974 deaths from all causes (SMR 5.7, 95% Confidence Interval: 5.5 to 5.9). Drug-related poisonings (1715) accounted for 43% of deaths. Relative to gender-and-age-appropriate expectation, mortality was elevated for a range of major causes including: infectious, respiratory, circulatory, liver disease, suicide, and homicide. Drug-related poisoning mortality risk continued to increase beyond 45 years and there were age-related increases in SMRs for specific causes of death (infectious, cancer, liver cirrhosis, and homicide). A gender by age-group interaction revealed that whilst men have a greater drug-related poisoning mortality risk than women at younger ages, the difference narrows with increasing age. Conclusion Opioid users’ excess mortality persists into old age and for some causes is exacerbated. This study highlights the importance of managing the complex health needs of older opioid users. PMID:25454405

National record linkage study of mortality for a large cohort of opioid users ascertained by drug treatment or criminal justice sources in England, 2005-2009.

PubMed

Pierce, Matthias; Bird, Sheila M; Hickman, Matthew; Millar, Tim

2015-01-01

Globally, opioid drug use is an important cause of premature mortality. In many countries, opioid using populations are ageing. The current study investigates mortality in a large cohort of opioid users; with a focus on testing whether excess mortality changes with age. 198,247 opioid users in England were identified from drug treatment and criminal justice sources (April, 2005 to March, 2009) and linked to mortality records. Mortality rates and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated by age-group and gender. There were 3974 deaths from all causes (SMR 5.7, 95% Confidence Interval: 5.5 to 5.9). Drug-related poisonings (1715) accounted for 43% of deaths. Relative to gender-and-age-appropriate expectation, mortality was elevated for a range of major causes including: infectious, respiratory, circulatory, liver disease, suicide, and homicide. Drug-related poisoning mortality risk continued to increase beyond 45 years and there were age-related increases in SMRs for specific causes of death (infectious, cancer, liver cirrhosis, and homicide). A gender by age-group interaction revealed that whilst men have a greater drug-related poisoning mortality risk than women at younger ages, the difference narrows with increasing age. Opioid users' excess mortality persists into old age and for some causes is exacerbated. This study highlights the importance of managing the complex health needs of older opioid users. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A new metric of inclusive fitness predicts the human mortality profile.

PubMed

Newman, Saul J; Easteal, Simon

2015-01-01

Biological species have evolved characteristic patterns of age-specific mortality across their life spans. If these mortality profiles are shaped by natural selection they should reflect underlying variation in the fitness effect of mortality with age. Direct fitness models, however, do not accurately predict the mortality profiles of many species. For several species, including humans, mortality rates vary considerably before and after reproductive ages, during life-stages when no variation in direct fitness is possible. Variation in mortality rates at these ages may reflect indirect effects of natural selection acting through kin. To test this possibility we developed a new two-variable measure of inclusive fitness, which we term the extended genomic output or EGO. Using EGO, we estimate the inclusive fitness effect of mortality at different ages in a small hunter-gatherer population with a typical human mortality profile. EGO in this population predicts 90% of the variation in age-specific mortality. This result represents the first empirical measurement of inclusive fitness of a trait in any species. It shows that the pattern of human survival can largely be explained by variation in the inclusive fitness cost of mortality at different ages. More generally, our approach can be used to estimate the inclusive fitness of any trait or genotype from population data on birth dates and relatedness.

North-South disparities in English mortality1965-2015: longitudinal population study.

PubMed

Buchan, Iain E; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Sperrin, Matthew; Chandola, Tarani; Doran, Tim

2017-09-01

Social, economic and health disparities between northern and southern England have persisted despite Government policies to reduce them. We examine long-term trends in premature mortality in northern and southern England across age groups, and whether mortality patterns changed after the 2008-2009 Great Recession. Population-wide longitudinal (1965-2015) study of mortality in England's five northernmost versus four southernmost Government Office Regions - halves of overall population. directly age-sex adjusted mortality rates; northern excess mortality (percentage excess northern vs southern deaths, age-sex adjusted). From 1965 to 2010, premature mortality (deaths per 10 000 aged <75 years) declined from 64 to 28 in southern versus 72 to 35 in northern England. From 2010 to 2015 the rate of decline in premature mortality plateaued in northern and southern England. For most age groups, northern excess mortality remained consistent from 1965 to 2015. For 25-34 and 35-44 age groups, however, northern excess mortality increased sharply between 1995 and 2015: from 2.2% (95% CI -3.2% to 7.6%) to 29.3% (95% CI 21.0% to 37.6%); and 3.3% (95% CI -1.0% to 7.6%) to 49.4% (95% CI 42.8% to 55.9%), respectively. This was due to northern mortality increasing (ages 25-34) or plateauing (ages 35-44) from the mid-1990s while southern mortality mainly declined. England's northern excess mortality has been consistent among those aged <25 and 45+ for the past five decades but risen alarmingly among those aged 25-44 since the mid-90s, long before the Great Recession. This profound and worsening structural inequality requires more equitable economic, social and health policies, including potential reactions to the England-wide loss of improvement in premature mortality. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The public health impact of economic fluctuations in a Latin American country: mortality and the business cycle in Colombia in the period 1980-2010.

PubMed

Arroyave, Ivan; Hessel, Philipp; Burdorf, Alex; Rodriguez-Garcia, Jesus; Cardona, Doris; Avendaño, Mauricio

2015-05-27

Studies in high-income countries suggest that mortality is related to economic cycles, but few studies have examined how fluctuations in the economy influence mortality in low- and middle-income countries. We exploit regional variations in gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) over the period 1980-2010 in Colombia to examine how changes in economic output relate to adult mortality. Data on the number of annual deaths at ages 20 years and older (n = 3,506,600) from mortality registries, disaggregated by age groups, sex and region, were linked to population counts for the period 1980-2010. We used region fixed effect models to examine whether changes in regional GDPpc were associated with changes in mortality. We carried out separate analyses for the periods 1980-1995 and 2000-2010 as well as by sex, distinguishing three age groups: 20-44 (predominantly young working adults), 45-64 (middle aged working adults), and 65+ (senior, predominantly retired individuals). The association between regional economic conditions and mortality varied by period and age groups. From 1980 to 1995, increases in GDPpc were unrelated to mortality at ages 20 to 64, but they were associated with reductions in mortality for senior men. In contrast, from 2000 to 2010, changes in GDPpc were not associated with old age mortality, while an increase in GDPpc was associated with a decline in mortality at ages 20-44 years. Analyses restricted to regions with high registration coverage yielded similar albeit less precise estimates for most sub-groups. The relationship between business cycles and mortality varied by period and age in Colombia. Most notably, mortality shifted from being acyclical to being countercyclical for males aged 20-44, while it shifted from being countercyclical to being acyclical for males aged 65+.

Population-level analysis and validation of an individual-based cutthroat trout model

Treesearch

Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey; Roland H. Lamberson; Derek E. Lee; Claasen Nathan J.; Shuzo Yoshihara

2002-01-01

Abstract - An individual-based model of stream trout is analyzed by testing its ability to reproduce patterns of population-level behavior observed in real trout: (1) "self-thinning," a negative power relation between weight and abundance; (2) a "critical period" of density-dependent mortality in young-of-the-year; (3) high and age-speci...

Development of a Frailty Index for Older People with Intellectual Disabilities: Results from the HA-ID Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schoufour, Josje D.; Mitnitski, Arnold; Rockwood, Kenneth; Evenhuis, Heleen M.; Echteld, Michael A.

2013-01-01

Background: Although there is no strict definition of frailty, it is generally accepted as a state of high vulnerability for adverse health outcomes at older age. Associations between frailty and mortality, dependence, and hospitalization have been shown. We measured the frailty level of older people with intellectual disabilities (ID).…

Mortality, migration, income, and air pollution: a comparative study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bozzo, S.R.; Novak, K.M.; Galdos, F.

1978-06-02

The interrelationships among different demographic factors, specific causes of death, median family income, and estimated air pollution emissions were examined. Using the Medical Data Base (MEDABA) developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory, the entire population of the United States was cross-tabulated by income and emission levels of air pollutants. Path analysis was used to examine a number of patterns and relationships for each age, race, and sex group containing a minimum of 10,000 persons. Competitive and complementary effects were observed. These effects were frequently age dependent and occasionaly sex related. This specialized data base, the application of path analysis, and themore » development of a dynamic population and mortality model, in combination, proved to be a useful tool for investigating the effects of energy related pollutants on the exposed population.« less

The relationship between prior suicidal behavior and mortality among individuals in community corrections.

PubMed

Clark, C Brendan; Waesche, Matthew C; Hendricks, Peter S; McCullumsmith, Cheryl B; Redmond, Nicole; Katiyar, Nandan; Lawler, Robert Marsh; Cropsey, Karen L

2013-01-01

Individuals under community corrections have multiple risk factors for mortality including exposure to a criminal environment, drug use, social stress, and a lack of medical care that predispose them to accidents, homicides, medical morbidities, and suicide. The literature suggests that prior suicidal behavior may be a particularly potent risk factor for mortality among individuals in the criminal justice system. This study looked to extend the link between history of a suicide attempt and future mortality in a community corrections population. Using an archival dataset (N = 18,260) collected from 2002 to 2007 of individuals being monitored under community corrections supervision for an average of 217 days (SD = 268), we examined the association between past history of a suicide attempt and mortality. A Cox Proportional Hazard Model controlling for age, race, gender, and substance dependence indicated that past history of a suicide attempt was independently associated with time to mortality, and demonstrated the second greatest effect after gender. These data suggest the need for a greater focus on screening and preventive services, particularly for individuals with a history of suicidal behavior, so as to reduce the risk of mortality in community corrections populations.

Age and sex alone are insufficient to predict human rib structural response to dynamic A-P loading.

PubMed

Schafman, Michelle A; Kang, Yun-Seok; Moorhouse, Kevin; White, Susan E; Bolte, John H; Agnew, Amanda M

2016-10-03

Thoracic injuries from motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) are common in children and the elderly and are associated with a high rate of mortality for both groups. Rib fractures, in particular, are linked to high mortality rates which increase with the number of fractures sustained. Anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) and computational models have been developed to improve vehicle safety, however these tools are constructed based on limited physical datasets. To-date, no study has explored variation of rib structural properties across the entire age spectrum with data obtained using the same experimental methodology to allow for comparison. One-hundred eighty-four ribs from 93 post mortem human subjects (PMHS) (70 male, 23 female; ages 4-99) were subjected to dynamic bending tests simulating a frontal impact to the thorax. Structural mechanical properties were calculated and a multi-level statistical model quantified the sample variance as explained by age and sex. Displacement (δ X ), peak force (F peak ), linear structural stiffness (K), energy absorption to fracture (U tot ), and plastic properties including post-yield energy absorption (U Pl ), plastic displacement (δ Pl ), and the ratio of elastic to secant stiffness (K-ratio) all showed negative relationships with age, while only F peak , K, and U tot were dependent on sex. Despite these relationships being statistically significant, only 7-39% of variance is explained by age and only 3-17% of variance is explained by sex. This demonstrates that variability in bone properties is more complex than simply chronological age- and sex-dependence and should be explored in the context of biological mechanisms instead. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is socioeconomic status a predictor of mortality in nonagenarians? The vitality 90+ study.

PubMed

Enroth, Linda; Raitanen, Jani; Hervonen, Antti; Nosraty, Lily; Jylhä, Marja

2015-01-01

socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are well-known in middle-aged and younger old adults, but the situation of the oldest old is less clear. The aim of this study was to investigate socioeconomic inequalities for all-cause, cardiovascular and dementia mortality among the people aged 90 or older. the data source was a mailed survey in the Vitality 90+ study (n = 1,276) in 2010. The whole cohort of people 90 years or over irrespective of health status or dwelling place in a geographical area was invited to participate. The participation rate was 79%. Socioeconomic status was measured by occupation and education, and health status by functioning and comorbidity. All-cause and cause-specific mortality was followed for 3 years. The Cox regression, with hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), was applied. the all-cause and dementia mortality differed by occupational class. Upper non-manuals had lower all-cause mortality than lower non-manuals (HR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.11-2.32), skilled manual workers (HR: 1.56 95% CI: 1.09-2.25), unskilled manual workers (HR: 1.88; 95% CI: 1.20-2.94), housewives (HR: 1.77 95% CI: 1.15-2.71) and those with unknown occupation (HR: 2.33; 95% CI: 1.41-3.85). Inequalities in all-cause mortality were largely explained by the differences in functioning. The situation was similar according to education, but inequalities were not statistically significant. Socioeconomic differences in cardiovascular mortality were not significant. socioeconomic inequalities persist in mortality for 90+-year-olds, but their magnitude varies depending on the cause of death and the indicator of socioeconomic status. Mainly, mortality differences are explained by differences in functional status. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Role of TRPA1 in acute cardiopulmonary toxicity of inhaled acrolein.

PubMed

Conklin, Daniel J; Haberzettl, Petra; Jagatheesan, Ganapathy; Kong, Maiying; Hoyle, Gary W

2017-06-01

Acrolein is a highly toxic, volatile, unsaturated aldehyde generated during incomplete combustion as in tobacco smoke and indoor fires. Because the transient receptor potential ankyrin 1 (TRPA1) channel mediates tobacco smoke-induced lung injury, we assessed its role in high-level acrolein-induced toxicity in mice. Acrolein (100-275ppm, 10-30min) caused upper airway epithelial sloughing, bradypnea and oral gasping, hypothermia, cardiac depression and mortality. Male wild-type mice (WT, C57BL/6; 5-52weeks) were significantly more sensitive to high-level acrolein than age-matched, female WT mice. Both male and female TRPA1-null mice were more sensitive to acrolein-induced mortality than age- and sex-matched WT mice. Acrolein exposure increased lung weight:body weight ratios and lung albumin and decreased plasma albumin to a greater extent in TRPA1-null than in WT mice. Lung and plasma protein-acrolein adducts were not increased in acrolein-exposed TRPA1-null mice compared with WT mice. To assess TRPA1-dependent protective mechanisms, respiratory parameters were monitored by telemetry. TRPA1-null mice had a slower onset of breathing rate suppression ('respiratory braking') than WT mice suggesting TRPA1 mediates this protective response. Surprisingly, WT male mice treated either with a TRPA1 antagonist (HC030031; 200mg/kg) alone or with combined TRPA1 (100mg/kg) and TRPV1 (capsazepine, 10mg/kg) antagonists at 30min post-acrolein exposure (i.e., "real world" delay in treatment) were significantly protected from acrolein-induced mortality. These data show TRPA1 protects against high-level acrolein-induced toxicity in a sex-dependent manner. Post-exposure TRPA1 antagonism also protected against acrolein-induced mortality attesting to a complex role of TRPA1 in cardiopulmonary injury. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statin Treatment and Clinical Outcomes of Heart Failure Among Africans: An Inverse Probability Treatment Weighted Analysis.

PubMed

Bonsu, Kwadwo Osei; Owusu, Isaac Kofi; Buabeng, Kwame Ohene; Reidpath, Daniel D; Kadirvelu, Amudha

2017-04-01

Randomized control trials of statins have not demonstrated significant benefits in outcomes of heart failure (HF). However, randomized control trials may not always be generalizable. The aim was to determine whether statin and statin type-lipophilic or -hydrophilic improve long-term outcomes in Africans with HF. This was a retrospective longitudinal study of HF patients aged ≥18 years hospitalized at a tertiary healthcare center between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2013 in Ghana. Patients were eligible if they were discharged from first admission for HF (index admission) and followed up to time of all-cause, cardiovascular, and HF mortality or end of study. Multivariable time-dependent Cox model and inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting of marginal structural model were used to estimate associations between statin treatment and outcomes. Adjusted hazard ratios were also estimated for lipophilic and hydrophilic statin compared with no statin use. The study included 1488 patients (mean age 60.3±14.2 years) with 9306 person-years of observation. Using the time-dependent Cox model, the 5-year adjusted hazard ratios with 95% CI for statin treatment on all-cause, cardiovascular, and HF mortality were 0.68 (0.55-0.83), 0.67 (0.54-0.82), and 0.63 (0.51-0.79), respectively. Use of inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting resulted in estimates of 0.79 (0.65-0.96), 0.77 (0.63-0.96), and 0.77 (0.61-0.95) for statin treatment on all-cause, cardiovascular, and HF mortality, respectively, compared with no statin use. Among Africans with HF, statin treatment was associated with significant reduction in mortality. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Orthostatic Hypotension: Epidemiology, Prognosis, and Treatment.

PubMed

Ricci, Fabrizio; De Caterina, Raffaele; Fedorowski, Artur

2015-08-18

Orthostatic hypotension (OH) is a common cardiovascular disorder, with or without signs of underlying neurodegenerative disease. OH is diagnosed on the basis of an orthostatic challenge and implies a persistent systolic/diastolic blood pressure decrease of at least 20/10 mm Hg upon standing. Its prevalence is age dependent, ranging from 5% in patients <50 years of age to 30% in those >70 years of age. OH may complicate treatment of hypertension, heart failure, and coronary heart disease; cause disabling symptoms, faints, and traumatic injuries; and substantially reduce quality of life. Despite being largely asymptomatic or with minimal symptoms, the presence of OH independently increases mortality and the incidence of myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation. In this review, we outline the etiology and prevalence of OH in the general population, summarize its relationship with morbidity and mortality, propose a diagnostic and therapeutic algorithm, and delineate current challenges and future perspectives. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Survival and weak chaos

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Survival analysis in biology and reliability theory in engineering concern the dynamical functioning of bio/electro/mechanical units. Here we incorporate effects of chaotic dynamics into the classical theory. Dynamical systems theory now distinguishes strong and weak chaos. Strong chaos generates Type II survivorship curves entirely as a result of the internal operation of the system, without any age-independent, external, random forces of mortality. Weak chaos exhibits (a) intermittency and (b) Type III survivorship, defined as a decreasing per capita mortality rate: engineering explicitly defines this pattern of decreasing hazard as ‘infant mortality’. Weak chaos generates two phenomena from the normal functioning of the same system. First, infant mortality—sensu engineering—without any external explanatory factors, such as manufacturing defects, which is followed by increased average longevity of survivors. Second, sudden failure of units during their normal period of operation, before the onset of age-dependent mortality arising from senescence. The relevance of these phenomena encompasses, for example: no-fault-found failure of electronic devices; high rates of human early spontaneous miscarriage/abortion; runaway pacemakers; sudden cardiac death in young adults; bipolar disorder; and epilepsy. PMID:29892407

Estimates of growth and mortality of under-yearling smallmouth bass in Spednic Lake, from 1970 through 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Trial, Joan G.

2014-01-01

This report is the product of a 2013 cooperative agreement between the U.S. Geological Survey, the International Joint Commission, and the Maine Bureau of Sea Run Fisheries and Habitat to quantify the effects of meteorological conditions (from 1970 through 2008) on the survival of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) in the first year of life in Spednic Lake. This report documents the data and methods used to estimate historical daily mean lake surface-water temperatures from early spring through late autumn, which were used to estimate the dates of smallmouth bass spawning, young-of-the-year growth, and probable strength of each year class. Mortality of eggs and fry in nests was modeled and estimated to exceed 10 percent in 17 of 39 years; during those years, cold temperatures in the early part of the spawning period resulted in mortality to fish that were estimated to have had the longest growing season and attain the greatest length. Modeled length-dependent overwinter survival combined with early mortality identified 1986, 1994, 1996, and 2004 as the years in which temperature was likely to have presented the greatest challenge to year-class strength in the Spednic Lake fishery. Age distribution of bass in fisheries on lakes in the St. Croix and surrounding watersheds confirmed that conditions in 1986 and 1996 resulted in weak smallmouth bass year classes (age-four or age-five bass representing less than 15 percent of a 100-fish sample).

Association of Temporal Changes in Gestational Age With Perinatal Mortality in the United States, 2007-2015.

PubMed

Ananth, Cande V; Goldenberg, Robert L; Friedman, Alexander M; Vintzileos, Anthony M

2018-05-14

Whether the changing gestational age distribution in the United States since 2005 has affected perinatal mortality remains unknown. To examine changes in gestational age distribution and gestational age-specific perinatal mortality. This retrospective cohort study examined trends in US perinatal mortality by linking live birth and infant death data among more than 35 million singleton births from January 1, 2007, through December 31, 2015. Year of birth and changes in gestational age distribution. Changes in the proportion of births at gestational ages 20 to 27, 28 to 31, 32 to 33, 34 to 36, 37 to 38, 39 to 40, 41, and 42 to 44 weeks; changes in perinatal mortality (stillbirth at ≥20 weeks, and neonatal deaths at <28 days) rates; and contribution of gestational age changes to perinatal mortality. Trends were estimated from log-linear regression models adjusted for confounders. Among the 34 236 577 singleton live births during the study period, the proportion of births at all gestational ages declined, except at 39 to 40 weeks, which increased (54.5% in 2007 to 60.2% in 2015). Overall perinatal mortality declined from 9.0 to 8.6 per 1000 births (P < .001). Stillbirths declined from 5.7 to 5.6 per 1000 births (P < .001), and neonatal mortality declined from 3.3 to 3.0 per 1000 births (P < .001). Although the proportion of births at gestational ages 34 to 36, 37 to 38, and 42 to 44 weeks declined, perinatal mortality rates at these gestational ages showed annual adjusted relative increases of 1.0% (95% CI, 0.6%-1.4%), 2.3% (95% CI, 1.9%-2.8%), and 4.2% (95% CI, 1.5%-7.0%), respectively. Neonatal mortality rates at gestational ages 34 to 36 and 37 to 38 weeks showed a relative adjusted annual increase of 0.9% (95% CI, 0.2%-1.6%) and 3.1% (95% CI, 2.1%-4.1%), respectively. Although the proportion of births at gestational age 39 to 40 weeks increased, perinatal mortality showed an annual relative adjusted decline of -1.3% (95% CI, -1.8% to -0.9%). The decline in neonatal mortality rate was largely attributable to changes in the gestational age distribution than to gestational age-specific mortality. Although the proportion of births at gestational age 39 to 40 weeks increased, perinatal mortality at this gestational age declined. This finding may be owing to pregnancies delivered at 39 to 40 weeks that previously would have been unnecessarily delivered earlier, leaving fetuses at higher risk for mortality at other gestational ages.

Injury-related hospital admissions of military dependents compared with similarly aged nonmilitary insured infants, children, and adolescents.

PubMed

Pressley, Joyce C; Dawson, Patrick; Carpenter, Dustin J

2012-10-01

Military deployment of one or both parents is associated with declines in school performance, behavioral difficulties, and increases in reported mental health conditions, but less is known regarding injury risks in pediatric military dependents. Kid Health Care Cost and Utilization Project 2006 (KID) was used to identify military dependents aged 0.1 year to 17 years through expected insurance payer being CHAMPUS, Tricare, or CHAMPVA (n = 12,310) and similarly aged privately insured nonmilitary in CHAMPUS, Tricare, or CHAMPVA states (n = 730,065). Mental health diagnoses per 1,000 hospitalizations and mechanisms of injury per 1,000 injury-related hospitalizations are reported. Unweighted univariate analyses used Fisher's exact, χ(2), and analysis of variance tests for significance. Odds ratios are age and sex adjusted with 95% confidence intervals. Injury-related admissions were higher in military than in nonmilitary dependents (15.5% vs. 13.2%, p < 0.0001). Age- and sex-adjusted motor vehicle occupant and pedestrian injuries were significantly lower in all-age military dependents but not in age-stratified categories. Very young military dependents had higher all-cause injury admissions (p < 0.0001), drowning/near drowning (p < 0.0001), and intracranial injury (p < 0.0001) and showed a tendency toward higher suffocation (p = 0.055) and crushing injury (p = 0.065). Military adolescents and teenagers had higher suicide/suicide attempts (p = 0.0001) and poisonings from medicinal substances (p = 0.0001). Mental health diagnoses were significantly higher in every age category of military dependents. All-cause in-hospital mortality tended to be greater in military than in nonmilitary dependents (p = 0.052). This study suggests that military dependents are a vulnerable population with special needs and provides clues to areas where injury prevention professionals might begin to address their needs. Prognostic/epidemiologic study, level II.

Patterns of in-hospital mortality and bleeding complications following PCI for very elderly patients: insights from the Dartmouth Dynamic Registry.

PubMed

Li, Shawn X; Chaudry, Hannah I; Lee, Jiyong; Curran, Theodore B; Kumar, Vishesh; Wong, Kendrew K; Andrus, Bruce W; DeVries, James T

2018-02-01

Very elderly patients (age ≥ 85 years) are a rapidly increasing segment of the population. As a group, they experience high rates of in-hospital mortality and bleeding complications following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). However, the relationship between bleeding and mortality in the very elderly is unknown. Retrospective review was performed on 17,378 consecutive PCI procedures from 2000 to 2015 at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center. Incidence of bleeding during the index PCI admission (bleeding requiring transfusion, access site hematoma > 5 cm, pseudoaneurysm, and retroperitoneal bleed) and in-hospital mortality were reported for four age groups (< 65 years, 65-74 years, 75-84 years, and ≥ 85 years). The mortality of patients who suffered bleeding complications and those who did not was calculated and multivariate analysis was performed for in-hospital mortality. Lastly, known predictors of bleeding were compared between patients age < 85 years and age ≥ 85 years. Of 17,378 patients studied, 1019 (5.9%) experienced bleeding and 369 (2.1%) died in-hospital following PCI. Incidence of bleeding and in-hospital mortality increased monotonically with increasing age (mortality: 0.94%, 2.27%, 4.24% and 4.58%; bleeding: 3.96%, 6.62%, 10.68% and 13.99% for ages < 65, 65-74, 75-84 and ≥ 85 years, respectively). On multivariate analysis, bleeding was associated with increased mortality for all age groups except patients age ≥ 85 years [odds ratio (95% CI): age < 65 years, 3.65 (1.99-6.74); age 65-74 years, 2.83 (1.62-4.94); age 75-84 years, 3.86 (2.56-5.82), age ≥ 85 years: 1.39 (0.49-3.95)]. Bleeding and mortality following PCI increase with increasing age. For the very elderly, despite high rates of bleeding, bleeding is no longer predictive of in-hospital mortality following PCI.

Dialysis outcomes and analysis of practice patterns suggests the dialysis schedule affects day-of-week mortality

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hui; Schaubel, Douglas E; Kalbfleisch, John D; Bragg-Gresham, Jennifer L; Robinson, Bruce M; Pisoni, Ronald L; Canaud, Bernard; Jadoul, Michel; Akiba, Takashi; Saito, Akira; Port, Friedrich K; Saran, Rajiv

2012-01-01

The risk of death for hemodialysis patients is thought to be highest on the days following the longest interval without dialysis (usually Mondays and Tuesdays); however, existing results are inconclusive. To clarify this we analyzed Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS) data of 22,163 hemodialysis patients from the United States, Europe and Japan. Our study focused on the association between dialysis schedule and day-of-week of all-cause, cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality with day-of-week coding as a time-dependent covariate. The models were adjusted for dialysis schedule, age, country, DOPPS Phase I or II, and other demographic and clinical covariates comparing mortality on each day to the 7-day average. Patients on a Monday-Wednesday-Friday (MFW) schedule had elevated all-cause mortality on Monday, and those on a Tuesday-Thursday-Saturday (TTS) schedule increased risk of mortality on Tuesday in all 3 regions. The association between day-of-week mortality and schedule was generally stronger for cardiovascular than non-cardiovascular mortality, and most pronounced in the United States. Unexpectedly, Japanese patients on a MWF schedule had a higher risk of non-cardiovascular mortality on Fridays, and European patients on a TTS schedule experienced an elevated cardiovascular mortality on Saturdays. Thus, future studies are needed to evaluate the influence of practice patterns on schedule-specific mortality and factors that could modulate this effect. PMID:22297673

Mortality in the 2011 Tsunami in Japan

PubMed Central

Nakahara, Shinji; Ichikawa, Masao

2013-01-01

Introduction On 11 March 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake caused a huge tsunami that struck Northeast Japan, resulting in nearly 20 000 deaths. We investigated mortality patterns by age, sex, and region in the 3 most severely affected prefectures. Methods Using police data on earthquake victims in Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures, mortality rates by sex, age group, and region were calculated, and regional variability in mortality rates across age groups was compared using rate ratios (RRs), with the rates in Iwate as the reference. Results In all regions, age-specific mortality showed a tendency to increase with age; there were no sex differences. Among residents of Iwate, mortality was markedly lower among school-aged children as compared with other age groups. In northern Miyagi and the southern part of the study area, RRs were higher among school-aged children than among other age groups. Conclusions The present study could not address the reasons for the observed mortality patterns and regional differences. To improve preparedness policies, future research should investigate the reasons for regional differences. PMID:23089585

Extremely short lifespan in the annual fish Nothobranchius furzeri.

PubMed Central

Valdesalici, Stefano; Cellerino, Alessandro

2003-01-01

Evolutionary theories of senescence postulate that lifespan is determined by the age-dependent decrease in the effects of natural selection. Factors that influence survival and reproduction at early life stages have a larger impact on fitness than factors that influence later life stages. According to these views, selection for rapid sexual maturation and a steep age-dependent decrease in fitness drive the evolution of short lifespans. Here, we report on the survival trajectory of Nothobranchius furzeri (Pisces: Ciprinodontidae): a member of a group of annual species found in temporary bodies of water whose life expectancy in the wild is limited to a few months. We find that maximum survival of N. furzeri in the laboratory is less than 12 weeks. The temporal trajectory of survival shows an age-dependent increase in the mortality rate that is typical of organisms with defined lifespans. The lifespan of N. furzeri is exceptionally short for a vertebrate: owing to its small size and the possibility of propagation in captivity, N. furzeri could be used as a convenient model for ageing research. PMID:14667379

Mortality of breast cancer in Taiwan, 1971–2010: Temporal changes and an age–period–cohort analysis

PubMed Central

Ho, M.-L.; Hsiao, Y.-H.; Su, S.-Y.

2015-01-01

The current paper describes the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer mortality in Taiwan. Female breast cancer mortality data were collected from the Taiwan death registries for 1971–2010. The annual percentage changes, age- standardised mortality rates (ASMR) and age–period–cohort model were calculated. The mortality rates increased with advancing age groups when fixing the period. The percentage change in the breast cancer mortality rate increased from 54.79% at aged 20–44 years, to 149.78% in those aged 45–64 years (between 1971–75 and 2006–10). The mortality rates in the 45–64 age group increased steadily from 1971 to 1975 and 2006–10. The 1951 birth cohorts (actual birth cohort; 1947–55) showed peak mortalities in both the 50–54 and 45–49 age groups. We found that the 1951 birth cohorts had the greatest mortality risk from breast cancer. This might be attributed to the DDT that was used in large amounts to prevent deaths from malaria in Taiwan. However, future researches require DDT data to evaluate the association between breast cancer and DDT use. PMID:25020211

Modelling uveal melanoma

PubMed Central

Foss, A.; Cree, I.; Dolin, P.; Hungerford, J.

1999-01-01

BACKGROUND/AIM—There has been no consistent pattern reported on how mortality for uveal melanoma varies with age. This information can be useful to model the complexity of the disease. The authors have examined ocular cancer trends, as an indirect measure for uveal melanoma mortality, to see how rates vary with age and to compare the results with their other studies on predicting metastatic disease.
METHODS—Age specific mortality was examined for England and Wales, the USA, and Canada. A log-log model was fitted to the data. The slopes of the log-log plots were used as measure of disease complexity and compared with the results of previous work on predicting metastatic disease.
RESULTS—The log-log model provided a good fit for the US and Canadian data, but the observed rates deviated for England and Wales among people over the age of 65 years. The log-log model for mortality data suggests that the underlying process depends upon four rate limiting steps, while a similar model for the incidence data suggests between three and four rate limiting steps. Further analysis of previous data on predicting metastatic disease on the basis of tumour size and blood vessel density would indicate a single rate limiting step between developing the primary tumour and developing metastatic disease.
CONCLUSIONS—There is significant underreporting or underdiagnosis of ocular melanoma for England and Wales in those over the age of 65 years. In those under the age of 65, a model is presented for ocular melanoma oncogenesis requiring three rate limiting steps to develop the primary tumour and a fourth rate limiting step to develop metastatic disease. The three steps in the generation of the primary tumour involve two key processes—namely, growth and angiogenesis within the primary tumour. The step from development of the primary to development of metastatic disease is likely to involve a single rate limiting process.

 PMID:10216060

Intrinsic and extrinsic mortality reunited.

PubMed

Koopman, Jacob J E; Wensink, Maarten J; Rozing, Maarten P; van Bodegom, David; Westendorp, Rudi G J

2015-07-01

Intrinsic and extrinsic mortality are often separated in order to understand and measure aging. Intrinsic mortality is assumed to be a result of aging and to increase over age, whereas extrinsic mortality is assumed to be a result of environmental hazards and be constant over age. However, allegedly intrinsic and extrinsic mortality have an exponentially increasing age pattern in common. Theories of aging assert that a combination of intrinsic and extrinsic stressors underlies the increasing risk of death. Epidemiological and biological data support that the control of intrinsic as well as extrinsic stressors can alleviate the aging process. We argue that aging and death can be better explained by the interaction of intrinsic and extrinsic stressors than by classifying mortality itself as being either intrinsic or extrinsic. Recognition of the tight interaction between intrinsic and extrinsic stressors in the causation of aging leads to the recognition that aging is not inevitable, but malleable through the environment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determinants of survival in patients receiving dialysis in Libya.

PubMed

Alashek, Wiam A; McIntyre, Christopher W; Taal, Maarten W

2013-04-01

Maintenance dialysis is associated with reduced survival when compared with the general population. In Libya, information about outcomes on dialysis is scarce. This study, therefore, aimed to provide the first comprehensive analysis of survival in Libyan dialysis patients. This prospective multicenter study included all patients in Libya who had been receiving dialysis for >90 days in June 2009. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected upon enrollment and survival status after 1 year was determined. Two thousand two hundred seventy-three patients in 38 dialysis centers were followed up for 1 year. The majority were receiving hemodialysis (98.8%). Sixty-seven patients were censored due to renal transplantation, and 46 patients were lost to follow-up. Thus, 2159 patients were followed up for 1 year. Four hundred fifty-eight deaths occurred, (crude annual mortality rate of 21.2%). Of these, 31% were due to ischemic heart disease, 16% cerebrovascular accidents, and 16% due to infection. Annual mortality rate was 0% to 70% in different dialysis centers. Best survival was in age group 25 to 34 years. Binary logistic regression analysis identified age at onset of dialysis, physical dependency, diabetes, and predialysis urea as independent determinants of increased mortality. Patients receiving dialysis in Libya have a crude 1-year mortality rate similar to most developed countries, but the mean age of the dialysis population is much lower, and this outcome is thus relatively poor. As in most countries, cardiovascular disease and infection were the most common causes of death. Variation in mortality rates between different centers suggests that survival could be improved by promoting standardization of best practice. © 2012 The Authors. Hemodialysis International © 2012 International Society for Hemodialysis.

Morbidity and mortality in type B Niemann-Pick disease.

PubMed

McGovern, Margaret M; Lippa, Natalie; Bagiella, Emilia; Schuchman, Edward H; Desnick, Robert J; Wasserstein, Melissa P

2013-08-01

The purpose of this study was to perform a systematic evaluation of morbidity and mortality in type B Niemann-Pick disease. A total of 103 patients with Niemann-Pick disease (49 males, 54 females, age range: 1-72 years) participated in natural history studies through Mount Sinai's International Center for Types A and B Niemann-Pick Disease between 1992 and 2012. Serious morbidities included significant neurological, hepatic, and cardiac disease. Thirteen patients had some degree of neurological impairment. Nine patients had cirrhosis or liver failure requiring transplantation. Coronary artery and valvular heart disease were present in nine patients. Of note, only four patients were oxygen dependent, although progressive pulmonary disease is a well-described feature of Niemann-Pick disease. During the follow-up period, 18 deaths occurred. The median age of death was 15.5 years (range 1-72). Causes of death included pneumonia, liver failure, and hemorrhage. The majority of deaths (12 of 18) occurred in patients <21 years, yielding a mortality rate of 19% in the pediatric population. This study demonstrates that Niemann-Pick disease is a life-threatening disorder with significant morbidity and mortality, especially in the pediatric population. The information collected in this series highlights the need for safe, effective therapy for Niemann-Pick disease.

Stable, semi-stable populations and growth potential.

PubMed

Bourgeois-Pichat, J

1971-07-01

Abstract Starting from the definition of a Malthusian population given by Alfred J. Lotka, the author recalls how the concept of stable population is introduced in demography, first as a particular case of stable populations, and secondly as a limit of a demographic evolutionary process in which female age-specific fertility rates and age-specific mortality rates remain constant. Then he defines a new concept: the semi-stable population which is a population with a constant age distribution. He shows that such a population coincides at any point of time with the stable population corresponding to the mortality and the fertility at this point of time. In the remaining part of the paper it is shown how the concept of a stable population can be used for defining a coefficient of inertia which measures the resistance of a population to modification of its course as a consequence of changing fertility and mortality. Some formulae are established to calculate this coefficient first for an arbitrary population, and secondly for a semistable population. In this second case the formula is particularly simple. It appears as a product of three terms: the expectation of life at birth in years, the crude birth rate, and a coefficient depending on the rate of growth and for which a numerical table is easy to establish.

Prognostic durability of liver fibrosis tests and improvement in predictive performance for mortality by combining tests.

PubMed

Bertrais, Sandrine; Boursier, Jérôme; Ducancelle, Alexandra; Oberti, Frédéric; Fouchard-Hubert, Isabelle; Moal, Valérie; Calès, Paul

2017-06-01

There is currently no recommended time interval between noninvasive fibrosis measurements for monitoring chronic liver diseases. We determined how long a single liver fibrosis evaluation may accurately predict mortality, and assessed whether combining tests improves prognostic performance. We included 1559 patients with chronic liver disease and available baseline liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by Fibroscan, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), FIB-4, Hepascore, and FibroMeter V2G . Median follow-up was 2.8 years during which 262 (16.8%) patients died, with 115 liver-related deaths. All fibrosis tests were able to predict mortality, although APRI (and FIB-4 for liver-related mortality) showed lower overall discriminative ability than the other tests (differences in Harrell's C-index: P < 0.050). According to time-dependent AUROCs, the time period with optimal predictive performance was 2-3 years in patients with no/mild fibrosis, 1 year in patients with significant fibrosis, and <6 months in cirrhotic patients even in those with a model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score <15. Patients were then randomly split in training/testing sets. In the training set, blood tests and LSM were independent predictors of all-cause mortality. The best-fit multivariate model included age, sex, LSM, and FibroMeter V2G with C-index = 0.834 (95% confidence interval, 0.803-0.862). The prognostic model for liver-related mortality included the same covariates with C-index = 0.868 (0.831-0.902). In the testing set, the multivariate models had higher prognostic accuracy than FibroMeter V2G or LSM alone for all-cause mortality and FibroMeter V2G alone for liver-related mortality. The prognostic durability of a single baseline fibrosis evaluation depends on the liver fibrosis level. Combining LSM with a blood fibrosis test improves mortality risk assessment. © 2016 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Coffee, alcohol and other beverages in relation to cirrhosis mortality: the Singapore Chinese Health Study.

PubMed

Goh, George Boon-Bee; Chow, Wan-Cheng; Wang, Renwei; Yuan, Jian-Min; Koh, Woon-Puay

2014-08-01

Limited experimental and epidemiologic data suggest that coffee may reduce hepatic damage in chronic liver disease. The association between consumption of coffee and other beverages and risk of cirrhosis mortality was evaluated in the Singapore Chinese Health Study. This is a prospective population-based cohort of 63,275 middle-aged and older Chinese subjects who provided data on diet, lifestyle, and medical histories through in-person interviews using a structured questionnaire at enrollment between 1993 and 1998. Mortality from cirrhosis in the cohort was ascertained through linkage analysis with nationwide death registry. After a mean follow-up of 14.7 years, 114 subjects died from cirrhosis; 33 of them from viral hepatitis B (29%), two from hepatitis C (2%), and 14 from alcohol-related cirrhosis (12%). Compared to nondrinkers, daily alcohol drinkers had a strong dose-dependent positive association between amount of alcohol and risk of cirrhosis mortality. Conversely, there was a strong dose-dependent inverse association between coffee intake and risk of nonviral hepatitis-related cirrhosis mortality (P for trend = 0.014). Compared to non-daily coffee drinkers, those who drank two or more cups per day had a 66% reduction in mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.14-0.81). However, coffee intake was not associated with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis mortality. The inverse relationship between caffeine intake and nonviral hepatitis-related cirrhosis mortality became null after adjustment for coffee drinking. The consumption of black tea, green tea, fruit juices, or soft drinks was not associated with risk of cirrhosis death. This study demonstrates the protective effect of coffee on nonviral hepatitis-related cirrhosis mortality, and provides further impetus to evaluate coffee as a potential therapeutic agent in patients with cirrhosis. © 2014 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Validation of the grown-ups with congenital heart disease score.

PubMed

Hörer, Jürgen; Roussin, Régine; LeBret, Emanuel; Ly, Mohamed; Abdullah, Jarrah; Marzullo, Rafaella; Pabst von Ohain, Jelena; Belli, Emre

2018-06-01

Adults with congenital heart disease in need of heart surgery frequently present with significant comorbidity. Furthermore, additional technical difficulties often related to redo operations increase the risk for postoperative mortality and morbidity. Hence, next to the type of the procedure, additional procedure-dependent and procedure-independent factors have to be considered for risk evaluation. The recently proposed grown-ups with congenital heart disease (GUCH) mortality and morbidity scores account for these additional risk factors. We sought to validate their predictive power in a large population operated in a single centre. Data of all consecutive patients aged 18 years or more, who underwent surgery for congenital heart disease between 2005 and 2016, were collected. Mortality was defined as hospital mortality or mortality within 30 days following surgery. Morbidity was defined as occurrence of one or more of the following complications: renal failure requiring dialysis, neurologic deficit persisting at discharge, atrioventricular block requiring permanent pacemaker implantation, mechanical circulatory support, phrenic nerve injury and unplanned reoperation. The discriminatory power of the GUCH scores was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (c-index, including 95% CI). Eight hundred and twenty-four operations were evaluated. Additional procedure-dependent and procedure-independent factors, as defined in the GUCH scores, were present in 165 patients (20.0%) and 544 patients (66.0%), respectively. Hospital mortality and morbidity was 3.4% and 10.0%, respectively. C-index for GUCH mortality score was 0.809 (0.742-0.877). C-index for GUCH morbidity score was 0.676 (0.619-0.734). We could confirm the good predictive power of the GUCH mortality score for postoperative mortality in a large population of adults with congenital heart disease. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Anemia on admission increases the risk of mortality at 6 months and 1 year in hemorrhagic stroke patients in China.

PubMed

Zeng, Yi-Jun; Liu, Gai-Fen; Liu, Li-Ping; Wang, Chun-Xue; Zhao, Xing-Quan; Wang, Yong-Jun

2014-07-01

The relationship between anemia and intracerebral hemorrhage is not clear. We investigated the associations between anemia at the onset and mortality or dependency in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) registered at the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR). The CNSR recruited consecutive patients with diagnoses of ICH in 2007-2008. Their vascular risk factors, clinical presentations, and outcomes were recorded. The mortality and dependency at 1, 3, and 6 months and at 1 year were compared between ICH patients with and without anemia. A favorable outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 2 or less and a poor outcome as an mRS score of 3 or more. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to analyze the association between anemia and the 2 outcomes after adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, history of smoking and heavy drinking, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission, random glucose value on admission, and hematoma volume. Anemia was identified in 484 (19%) ICH patients. Compared with ICH patients without anemia, patients with anemia had no difference in mortality rate at discharge and at 1 month. The rate of mortality at 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and dependency at 1 year were significantly higher for those patients with anemia than those without (P<.05, P<.001, P<.001, and P<.05, respectively). After adjusting for potential confounders, anemia was an independent risk factor for death at 6 months and 1 year (adjusted odds ratio [OR]=1.338, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.78, and adjusted OR=1.326, 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.75) in ICH patients. Anemia independently predicted mortality at 6 months and 1 year after the initial episode of intercerebral hemorrhage. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Education, income, and occupational class cannot be used interchangeably in social epidemiology. Empirical evidence against a common practice

PubMed Central

Geyer, Siegfried; Hemström, Örjan; Peter, Richard; Vågerö, Denny

2006-01-01

Study objective Education, income, and occupational class are often used interchangeably in studies showing social inequalities in health. This procedure implies that all three characteristics measure the same underlying phenomena. This paper questions this practice. The study looked for any independent effects of education, income, and occupational class on four health outcomes: diabetes prevalence, myocardial infarction incidence and mortality, and finally all cause mortality in populations from Sweden and Germany. Design Sweden: follow up of myocardial infarction mortality and all cause mortality in the entire population, based on census linkage to the Cause of Death Registry. Germany: follow up of myocardial infarction morbidity and all cause mortality in statutory health insurance data, plus analysis of prevalence data on diabetes. Multiple regression analyses were performed to calculate the effects of education, income, and occupational class before and after mutual adjustments. Setting and participants Sweden (all residents aged 25–64) and Germany (Mettman district, Nordrhein‐Westfalen, all insured persons aged 25–64). Main results Correlations between education, income, and occupational class were low to moderate. Which of these yielded the strongest effects on health depended on type of health outcome in question. For diabetes, education was the strongest predictor and for all cause mortality it was income. Myocardial infarction morbidity and mortality showed a more mixed picture. In mutually adjusted analyses each social dimension had an independent effect on each health outcome in both countries. Conclusions Education, income, and occupational class cannot be used interchangeably as indicators of a hypothetical latent social dimension. Although correlated, they measure different phenomena and tap into different causal mechanisms. PMID:16905727

Is strength training associated with mortality benefits? A 15year cohort study of US older adults.

PubMed

Kraschnewski, Jennifer L; Sciamanna, Christopher N; Poger, Jennifer M; Rovniak, Liza S; Lehman, Erik B; Cooper, Amanda B; Ballentine, Noel H; Ciccolo, Joseph T

2016-06-01

The relationship between strength training (ST) behavior and mortality remains understudied in large, national samples, although smaller studies have observed that greater amounts of muscle strength are associated with lower risks of death. We aimed to understand the association between meeting ST guidelines and future mortality in an older US adult population. Data were analyzed from the 1997-2001 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) linked to death certificate data in the National Death Index. The main independent variable was guideline-concordant ST (i.e. twice each week) and dependent variable was all-cause mortality. Covariates identified in the literature and included in our analysis were demographics, past medical history, and other health behaviors (including other physical activity). Given our aim to understand outcomes in older adults, analyses were limited to adults age 65years and older. Multivariate analysis was conducted using multiple logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 9.6% of NHIS adults age 65 and older (N=30,162) reported doing guideline-concordant ST and 31.6% died. Older adults who reported guideline-concordant ST had 46% lower odds of all-cause mortality than those who did not (adjusted odds ratio: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.57, 0.70; p<0.001). The association between ST and death remained after adjustment for past medical history and health behaviors. Although a minority of older US adults met ST recommendations, guideline-concordant ST is significantly associated with decreased overall mortality. All-cause mortality may be significantly reduced through the identification of and engagement in guideline-concordant ST interventions by older adults. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parental age and offspring mortality: Negative effects of reproductive ageing may be counterbalanced by secular increases in longevity.

PubMed

Barclay, Kieron; Myrskylä, Mikko

2018-07-01

As parental ages at birth continue to rise, concerns about the effects of fertility postponement on offspring are increasing. Due to reproductive ageing, advanced parental ages have been associated with negative health outcomes for offspring, including decreased longevity. The literature, however, has neglected to examine the potential benefits of being born at a later date. Secular declines in mortality mean that later birth cohorts are living longer. We analyse mortality over ages 30-74 among 1.9 million Swedish men and women born 1938-60, and use a sibling comparison design that accounts for all time-invariant factors shared by the siblings. When incorporating cohort improvements in mortality, we find that those born to older mothers do not suffer any significant mortality disadvantage, and that those born to older fathers have lower mortality. These findings are likely to be explained by secular declines in mortality counterbalancing the negative effects of reproductive ageing.

Mortality associated with hepatitis C and hepatitis B virus infection: A nationwide study on multiple causes of death data.

PubMed

Fedeli, Ugo; Grande, Enrico; Grippo, Francesco; Frova, Luisa

2017-03-14

To analyze mortality associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in Italy. Death certificates mentioning either HBV or HCV infection were retrieved from the Italian National Cause of Death Register for the years 2011-2013. Mortality rates and proportional mortality (percentage of deaths with mention of HCV/HBV among all registered deaths) were computed by gender and age class. The geographical variability in HCV-related mortality rates was investigated by directly age-standardized rates (European standard population). Proportional mortality for HCV and HBV among subjects aged 20-59 years was assessed in the native population and in different immigrant groups. HCV infection was mentioned in 1.6% ( n = 27730) and HBV infection in 0.2% ( n = 3838) of all deaths among subjects aged ≥ 20 years. Mortality rates associated with HCV infection increased exponentially with age in both genders, with a male to female ratio close to unity among the elderly; a further peak was observed in the 50-54 year age group especially among male subjects. HCV-related mortality rates were higher in Southern Italy among elderly people (45/100000 in subjects aged 60-79 and 125/100000 in subjects aged ≥ 80 years), and in North-Western Italy among middle-aged subjects (9/100000 in the 40-59 year age group). Proportional mortality was higher among Italian citizens and North African immigrants for HCV, and among Sub-Saharan African and Asian immigrants for HBV. Population ageing, immigration, and new therapeutic approaches are shaping the epidemiology of virus-related chronic liver disease. In spite of limits due to the incomplete reporting and misclassification of the etiology of liver disease, mortality data represent an additional source of information for surveillance.

Age and mortality after injury: is the association linear?

PubMed

Friese, R S; Wynne, J; Joseph, B; Hashmi, A; Diven, C; Pandit, V; O'Keeffe, T; Zangbar, B; Kulvatunyou, N; Rhee, P

2014-10-01

Multiple studies have demonstrated a linear association between advancing age and mortality after injury. An inflection point, or an age at which outcomes begin to differ, has not been previously described. We hypothesized that the relationship between age and mortality after injury is non-linear and an inflection point exists. We performed a retrospective cohort analysis at our urban level I center from 2007 through 2009. All patients aged 65 years and older with the admission diagnosis of injury were included. Non-parametric logistic regression was used to identify the functional form between mortality and age. Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to explore the association between age and mortality. Age 65 years was used as the reference. Significance was defined as p < 0.05. A total of 1,107 patients were included in the analysis. One-third required intensive care unit (ICU) admission and 48 % had traumatic brain injury. 229 patients (20.6 %) were 84 years of age or older. The overall mortality was 7.2 %. Our model indicates that mortality is a quadratic function of age. After controlling for confounders, age is associated with mortality with a regression coefficient of 1.08 for the linear term (p = 0.02) and a regression coefficient of -0.006 for the quadratic term (p = 0.03). The model identified 84.4 years of age as the inflection point at which mortality rates begin to decline. The risk of death after injury varies linearly with age until 84 years. After 84 years of age, the mortality rates decline. These findings may reflect the varying severity of comorbidities and differences in baseline functional status in elderly trauma patients. Specifically, a proportion of our injured patient population less than 84 years old may be more frail, contributing to increased mortality after trauma, whereas a larger proportion of our injured patients over 84 years old, by virtue of reaching this advanced age, may, in fact, be less frail, contributing to less risk of death.

Biomarkers of aging in Drosophila.

PubMed

Jacobson, Jake; Lambert, Adrian J; Portero-Otín, Manuel; Pamplona, Reinald; Magwere, Tapiwanashe; Miwa, Satomi; Driege, Yasmine; Brand, Martin D; Partridge, Linda

2010-08-01

Low environmental temperature and dietary restriction (DR) extend lifespan in diverse organisms. In the fruit fly Drosophila, switching flies between temperatures alters the rate at which mortality subsequently increases with age but does not reverse mortality rate. In contrast, DR acts acutely to lower mortality risk; flies switched between control feeding and DR show a rapid reversal of mortality rate. Dietary restriction thus does not slow accumulation of aging-related damage. Molecular species that track the effects of temperatures on mortality but are unaltered with switches in diet are therefore potential biomarkers of aging-related damage. However, molecular species that switch upon instigation or withdrawal of DR are thus potential biomarkers of mechanisms underlying risk of mortality, but not of aging-related damage. Using this approach, we assessed several commonly used biomarkers of aging-related damage. Accumulation of fluorescent advanced glycation end products (AGEs) correlated strongly with mortality rate of flies at different temperatures but was independent of diet. Hence, fluorescent AGEs are biomarkers of aging-related damage in flies. In contrast, five oxidized and glycated protein adducts accumulated with age, but were reversible with both temperature and diet, and are therefore not markers either of acute risk of dying or of aging-related damage. Our approach provides a powerful method for identification of biomarkers of aging.

Biomarkers of ageing in Drosophila

PubMed Central

Jacobson, Jake; Portero-Otín, Manuel; Pamplona, Reinald; Magwere, Tapiwanashe; Miwa, Satomi; Driege, Yasmine; Brand, Martin D.; Partridge, Linda

2015-01-01

Summary Low environmental temperature and dietary restriction (DR) extend lifespan in diverse organisms. In the fruit fly Drosophila, switching flies between temperatures alters the rate at which mortality subsequently increases with age but does not reverse mortality rate. In contrast, DR acts acutely to lower mortality risk; flies switched between control feeding and DR show a rapid reversal of mortality rate. DR thus does not slow accumulation of ageing-related damage. Molecular species that track the effects of temperatures on mortality but are unaltered with switches in diet are therefore potential biomarkers of ageing-related damage. However, molecular species that switch upon instigation or withdrawal of DR are thus potential biomarkers of mechanisms underlying risk of mortality, but not of ageing-related damage. Using this approach, we assessed several commonly used biomarkers of ageing-related damage. Accumulation of fluorescent advanced glycation end products (AGEs) correlated strongly with mortality rate of flies at different temperatures but was independent of diet. Hence fluorescent AGEs are biomarkers of ageing-related damage in flies. In contrast, five oxidised and glycated protein adducts accumulated with age, but were reversible with both temperature and diet, and are therefore not markers either of acute risk of dying or of ageing-related damage. Our approach provides a powerful method for identification of biomarkers of ageing. PMID:20367621

Subjective social status and mortality: the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

PubMed

Demakakos, Panayotes; Biddulph, Jane P; de Oliveira, Cesar; Tsakos, Georgios; Marmot, Michael G

2018-05-19

Self-perceptions of own social position are potentially a key aspect of socioeconomic inequalities in health, but their association with mortality remains poorly understood. We examined whether subjective social status (SSS), a measure of the self-perceived element of social position, was associated with mortality and its role in the associations between objective socioeconomic position (SEP) measures and mortality. We used Cox regression to model the associations between SSS, objective SEP measures and mortality in a sample of 9972 people aged ≥ 50 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing over a 10-year follow-up (2002-2013). Our findings indicate that SSS was associated with all-cause, cardiovascular, cancer and other mortality. A unit decrease in the 10-point continuous SSS measure increased by 24 and 8% the mortality risk of people aged 50-64 and ≥ 65 years, respectively, after adjustment for age, sex and marital status. The respective estimates for cardiovascular mortality were 36 and 11%. Adjustment for all covariates fully explained the association between SSS and cancer mortality, and partially the remaining associations. In people aged 50-64 years, SSS mediated to a varying extent the associations between objective SEP measures and all-cause mortality. In people aged ≥ 65 years, SSS mediated to a lesser extent these associations, and to some extent was associated with mortality independent of objective SEP measures. Nevertheless, in both age groups, wealth partially explained the association between SSS and mortality. In conclusion, SSS is a strong predictor of mortality at older ages, but its role in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality appears to be complex.

Predictors of mortality among elderly people living in a south Indian urban community; a 10/66 Dementia Research Group prospective population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Jotheeswaran, A T; Williams, Joseph D; Prince, Martin J

2010-06-23

Eighty percent of deaths occur in low and middle income countries (LMIC), where chronic diseases are the leading cause. Most of these deaths are of older people, but there is little information on the extent, pattern and predictors of their mortality. We studied these among people aged 65 years and over living in urban catchment areas in Chennai, south India. In a prospective population cohort study, 1005 participants were followed-up after three years. Baseline assessment included sociodemographic and socioeconomic characteristics, health behaviours, physical, mental and cognitive disorders, disability and subjective global health. At follow-up, 257 (25.6%) were not traced. Baseline characteristics were similar to the 748 whose vital status was ascertained; 154 (20.6%) had died. The mortality rate was 92.5/1,000 per annum for men and 51.0/1,000 per annum for women. Adjusting for age and sex, mortality was associated with older age, male sex, having no friends, physical inactivity, smaller arm circumference, dementia, depression, poor self-rated health and disability. A parsimonious model included, in order of aetiologic force, male sex, smaller arm circumference, age, disability, and dementia. The total population attributable risk fraction was 0.90. A balanced approach to prevention of chronic disease deaths requires some attention to proximal risk factors in older people. Smoking and obesity seem much less relevant than in younger people. Undernutrition is preventable. While dementia makes the largest contribution to disability and dependency, comorbidity is the rule, and more attention should be given to the chronic care needs of those affected, and their carers.

A mortality comparison of participants and non-participants in a comprehensive health examination among elderly people living in an urban Japanese community.

PubMed

Iwasa, Hajime; Yoshida, Hideyo; Kim, Hunkyung; Yoshida, Yuko; Kwon, Jinhee; Sugiura, Miho; Furuna, Taketo; Suzuki, Takao

2007-06-01

Recent studies have revealed that there are critical differences between participants and non-participants in health examinations. The aim of this study was to examine mortality differences between participants and non-participants in a comprehensive health examination for prevention of geriatric syndromes among community-dwelling elderly people, using a three-year prospective cohort study. The study population included 854 adults aged 70 to 84 at baseline. The following items were all studied: the status of participation in the comprehensive health examination as an independent variable, age, gender, number of years of education, living alone, presence of chronic diseases, experience of falls over one year, history of hospitalization over one year, self-rated health, body mass index, instrumental activities of daily living, and subjective well-being as covariates; and all-cause mortality during a three-year follow-up as a dependent variable. In an adjusted Cox's proportional hazard regression model, the mortality risk for participants in the comprehensive health examination was significantly lower than that of non-participants (Risk Ratio (for participants)= 0.44, 95% confidence interval=0.24 to 0.78). The present study shows that there is a large mortality difference between participants and non-participants. Our findings suggest two possible interpretations: 1) There is a bias due to self-selection for participation in the trial, which was not eliminated by adjustment for the covariates in the statistical model; 2) There is an intervention effect associated with participation in the comprehensive health examination which reduces the mortality risk.

Subclinical hypothyroidism and mortality in a large Austrian cohort: a possible impact on treatment?

PubMed

Kovar, Florian Maria; Fang, I-Fei; Perkmann, Thomas; Haslacher, Helmuth; Slavka, Georg; Födinger, Manuela; Endler, Georg; Wagner, Oswald F

2015-12-01

Clinical implications of subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) are still matter of intense debate, resulting in the controversial discussion whether subclinical hypothyroidism should be treated. We performed a cohort study to evaluate the impact of subclinical hypothyroidism on vascular and overall mortality. Between 02/1993 and 03/2004, a total of 103,135 persons attending the General Hospital Vienna with baseline serum thyrotropin (TSH, thyroid-stimulating hormone) and free thyroxin (fT4) measurements could be enrolled in a retrospective cohort study. Subclinical hypothyroidism was defined by elevated TSH ranging from 4.5 to 20.0 mIU/L and normal fT4 concentration (0.7-1.7 ng/dL). Overall and vascular mortality as primary endpoints were assessed via record linkage with the Austrian Death Registry. A total of 80,490 subjects fulfilled inclusion criteria of whom 3934 participants (3.7%) were classified as SCH (868 males and 3066 females, median age 48 years). The mean follow-up among the 80,490 subjects was 4.1 years yielding an observation period of 373,301 person-years at risk. In a multivariate Cox regression model adjusted for age and gender TSH levels showed a dose-dependent association with all-cause mortality. The association between SCH and overall or vascular mortality was stronger in men below 60 years compared to older males or females. Our data support the hypothesis that SCH might represent an independent risk factor for overall and vascular mortality, especially in men below 60 years. Whether this group would benefit from replacement therapy should be evaluated in interventional studies.

Mortality Trajectories at Exceptionally High Ages: A Study of Supercentenarians

PubMed Central

Gavrilova, Natalia S.; Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Krut'ko, Vyacheslav N.

2017-01-01

The growing number of persons surviving to age 100 years and beyond raises questions about the shape of mortality trajectories at exceptionally high ages, and this problem may become significant for actuaries in the near future. However, such studies are scarce because of the difficulties in obtaining reliable age estimates at exceptionally high ages. The current view about mortality beyond age 110 years suggests that death rates do not grow with age and are virtually flat. The same assumption is made in the new actuarial VBT tables. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that the mortality of supercentenarians (persons living 110+ years) is constant and does not grow with age, and we analyze mortality trajectories at these exceptionally high ages. Death records of supercentenarians were taken from the International Database on Longevity (IDL). All ages of supercentenarians in the database were subjected to careful validation. We used IDL records for persons belonging to extinct birth cohorts (born before 1895) since the last deaths in IDL were observed in 2007. We also compared our results based on IDL data with a more contemporary database maintained by the Gerontology Research Group (GRG). First we attempted to replicate findings by Gampe (2010), who analyzed IDL data and came to the conclusion that “human mortality after age 110 is flat.” We split IDL data into two groups: cohorts born before 1885 and cohorts born in 1885 and later. Hazard rate estimates were conducted using the standard procedure available in Stata software. We found that mortality in both groups grows with age, although in older cohorts, growth was slower compared with more recent cohorts and not statistically significant. Mortality analysis of more numerous 1884–1894 birth cohort with the Akaike goodness-of-fit criterion showed better fit for the Gompertz model than for the exponential model (flat mortality). Mortality analyses with GRG data produced similar results. The remaining life expectancy for the 1884–1894 birth cohort demonstrates rapid decline with age. This decline is similar to the computer-simulated trajectory expected for the Gompertz model, rather than the extremely slow decline in the case of the exponential model. These results demonstrate that hazard rates after age 110 years do not stay constant and suggest that mortality deceleration at older ages is not a universal phenomenon. These findings may represent a challenge to the existing theories of aging and longevity, which predict constant mortality in the late stages of life. One possibility for reconciliation of the observed phenomenon and the existing theoretical consideration is a possibility of mortality deceleration and mortality plateau at very high yet unobservable ages. PMID:29170764

Mortality Trajectories at Exceptionally High Ages: A Study of Supercentenarians.

PubMed

Gavrilova, Natalia S; Gavrilov, Leonid A; Krut'ko, Vyacheslav N

2017-01-01

The growing number of persons surviving to age 100 years and beyond raises questions about the shape of mortality trajectories at exceptionally high ages, and this problem may become significant for actuaries in the near future. However, such studies are scarce because of the difficulties in obtaining reliable age estimates at exceptionally high ages. The current view about mortality beyond age 110 years suggests that death rates do not grow with age and are virtually flat. The same assumption is made in the new actuarial VBT tables. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that the mortality of supercentenarians (persons living 110+ years) is constant and does not grow with age, and we analyze mortality trajectories at these exceptionally high ages. Death records of supercentenarians were taken from the International Database on Longevity (IDL). All ages of supercentenarians in the database were subjected to careful validation. We used IDL records for persons belonging to extinct birth cohorts (born before 1895) since the last deaths in IDL were observed in 2007. We also compared our results based on IDL data with a more contemporary database maintained by the Gerontology Research Group (GRG). First we attempted to replicate findings by Gampe (2010), who analyzed IDL data and came to the conclusion that "human mortality after age 110 is flat." We split IDL data into two groups: cohorts born before 1885 and cohorts born in 1885 and later. Hazard rate estimates were conducted using the standard procedure available in Stata software. We found that mortality in both groups grows with age, although in older cohorts, growth was slower compared with more recent cohorts and not statistically significant. Mortality analysis of more numerous 1884-1894 birth cohort with the Akaike goodness-of-fit criterion showed better fit for the Gompertz model than for the exponential model (flat mortality). Mortality analyses with GRG data produced similar results. The remaining life expectancy for the 1884-1894 birth cohort demonstrates rapid decline with age. This decline is similar to the computer-simulated trajectory expected for the Gompertz model, rather than the extremely slow decline in the case of the exponential model. These results demonstrate that hazard rates after age 110 years do not stay constant and suggest that mortality deceleration at older ages is not a universal phenomenon. These findings may represent a challenge to the existing theories of aging and longevity, which predict constant mortality in the late stages of life. One possibility for reconciliation of the observed phenomenon and the existing theoretical consideration is a possibility of mortality deceleration and mortality plateau at very high yet unobservable ages.

[Mortality of working age population in Russia and indusrial countries in Europe: trends of the last two decades].

PubMed

Izmerov, N F; Tikhonova, G I; Gorchakova, T Iu

2014-01-01

The purpose of the study was to carry out comparative analysis of the status and trends in mortality of male and female population of working age (15-59 (54) years) in Russia and the EU-27. Based on official Russian (Rosstat) data, on the global database of the World Health Organization's cause of death (The WHO Mortality Database, WHOMD) and databases The Human Mortality Database (HMD) of the sex-age composition of the population and the number of deaths from certain causes of death by age and sex standardized (direct method) mortality rates of working age population from selected causes of death for 1990 and 2011 in Russia and the average for the EU-27 were calculated. Analysis of trends in mortality of male and female population of working age in Russia over the past two decades shows that, despite the positive changes in during last six years, in 2011, age-standardized mortality rates remained above the 1990 level for most causes of death. During the same period in the EU-27 mortality in men (15-59 years) and women (15-54 years) increased from almost all causes ofdeath, which led to an even greatergap between Russia and developed countries on this indicator: standardized mortality rate of the male population of Russia in 1990 was higher than in the EU-27 by 2.1 times, and by 2011 the gap had increased to 3.5 times. The women in the 1990 had 1.5 times higher standardized mortality rates, and by 2011 the gap had increased to 2.7 times. Despite a steady decline in the mortality rates of working age population after 2005, its level in 2012 was still higher than the one of 1990 for both men and women, which led to a further increase in the gap between the age-standardized coefficients of mortality rate of working age population in Russia and the countries of European Community-27 (15-59 (54)). Faster reduction of mortality rate in the working age population will preserve Russian population and its labor potential.

Statin, testosterone and phosphodiesterase 5-inhibitor treatments and age related mortality in diabetes

PubMed Central

Hackett, Geoffrey; Jones, Peter W; Strange, Richard C; Ramachandran, Sudarshan

2017-01-01

AIM To determine how statins, testosterone (T) replacement therapy (TRT) and phosphodiesterase 5-inhibitors (PDE5I) influence age related mortality in diabetic men. METHODS We studied 857 diabetic men screened for the BLAST study, stratifying them (mean follow-up = 3.8 years) into: (1) Normal T levels/untreated (total T > 12 nmol/L and free T > 0.25 nmol/L), Low T/untreated and Low T/treated; (2) PDE5I/untreated and PDE5I/treated; and (3) statin/untreated and statin/treated groups. The relationship between age and mortality, alone and with T/TRT, statin and PDE5I treatment was studied using logistic regression. Mortality probability and 95%CI were calculated from the above models for each individual. RESULTS Age was associated with mortality (logistic regression, OR = 1.10, 95%CI: 1.08-1.13, P < 0.001). With all factors included, age (OR = 1.08, 95%CI: 1.06-1.11, P < 0.001), Low T/treated (OR = 0.38, 95%CI: 0.15-0.92, P = 0.033), PDE5I/treated (OR = 0.17, 95%CI: 0.053-0.56, P = 0.004) and statin/treated (OR = 0.59, 95%CI: 0.36-0.97, P = 0.038) were associated with lower mortality. Age related mortality was as described by Gompertz, r2 = 0.881 when Ln (mortality) was plotted against age. The probability of mortality and 95%CI (from logistic regression) of individuals, treated/untreated with the drugs, alone and in combination was plotted against age. Overlap of 95%CI lines was evident with statins and TRT. No overlap was evident with PDE5I alone and with statins and TRT, this suggesting a change in the relationship between age and mortality. CONCLUSION We show that statins, PDE5I and TRT reduce mortality in diabetes. PDE5I, alone and with the other treatments significantly alter age related mortality in diabetic men. PMID:28344753

Educational Inequalities in the Transition to Adulthood in Belgium: The Impact of Intergenerational Mobility on Young-Adult Mortality in 2001-2009

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Several studies have focused on the association between parental and personal socioeconomic position (SEP) and health, with mixed results depending on the specific health outcome, research methodology and population under study. In the last decades, a growing interest is given to the influence of intergenerational mobility on several health outcomes at young ages. This study addresses the following research question: Is educational intergenerational mobility associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in young adulthood? To this end, the Belgian 1991 and 2001 censuses are used, providing characteristics of young persons at two time points (T1 = 01/03/91;T2 = 01/10/01) and follow-up information on mortality and emigration between T2 and 31/12/09 (T3). The study population consists of all official inhabitants of Flanders and the Brussels-Capital Region at T2, born between 1972 and 1982 and alive at T2. Parental and personal education are divided into primary (PE), lower secondary (LSE), higher secondary (HSE) and higher education (HE). We analyse mortality between T2 and T3 calculating age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) and using Cox regression (hazard ratios = HR). Personal rather than parental education determines the observed mortality rates, with high all-cause mortality rates among those with PE, irrespective of parental education (e.g., among men ASMRPE-PE = 200.0 [95% CI 158.0–241.9]; ASMRHE-PE = 319.7 [183.2–456.3]) and low all-cause mortality among those in higher education, regardless of parental education (ASMRPE-HE = 41.7 [30.8–52.6]; ASMRHE-HE = 38.0 [33.2–42.8]). There is some variation by gender and according to cause of death. This study shows the strong association between personal education and young-adult mortality. PMID:26657691

Life-history tactics: a review of the ideas.

PubMed

Stearns, S C

1976-03-01

This review organizes ideas on the evolution of life histories. The key life-history traits are brood size, size of young, the age distribution of reproductive effort, the interaction of reproductive effort with adult mortality, and the variation in these traits among an individual's progeny. The general theoretical problem is to predict which combinations of traits will evolve in organisms living in specified circumstances. First consider single traits. Theorists have made the following predictions: (1) Where adult exceeds juvenile mortality, the organism should reproduce only once in its lifetime. Where juvenile exceeds adult mortality, the organism should reproduce several times. (2) Brood size should macimize the number of young surviving to maturity, summed over the lifetime of the parent. But when optimum brood-size unpredictably in time, smaller broods should be favored because they decrease the chances of total failure on a given attempt. (3) In expanding populations, selection should minimize age at maturity. In stable populations, when reproductive success depends on size, age, or social status, or when adult exceeds juvenile mortality, then maturation should be delayed, as it should be in declining populations. (4) Young should increase in size at birth with increased predation risk, and decrease in size with increased resource availability. Theorists have also predicted that only particular combinations of traits should occur in specified circumstances. (5) In growing populations, age at maturity should be minimized, reproductive effort concentrated early in life, and brood size increased. (6) One view holds that in stable environments, late maturity, broods, a few, large young, parental care, and small reproductive efforts should be favored (K-selection). In fluctuating environments, early maturity, many small young, reduced parental care, and large reproductive efforts should be favored (r-selection). (7) But another view holds that when juvenile mortality fluctuates more than adult mortality, the traits associated with stable and fluctuating environments should be reversed. We need experiments that test the assumptions and predictions reviewed here, more comprehensive theory that makes more readily falsifiable predictions, and examination of different definitions of fitness.

Effects of stream channel morphology on golden trout spawning habitat and recruitment.

Treesearch

R.A. Knapp; V.T. Vredenburg; K.R. Matthews

1998-01-01

Abstract. Populations of stream-dwelling salmonids (e.g., salmon and trout) are generally believed to be regulated by strong density-dependent mortality acting on the age-0 life stage, which produces a dome-shaped stock-recruitment curve. Although this paradigm is based largely on data from anadromous species, it has been widely applied to streamresident salmonids...

Colorectal cancer mortality reduction is associated with having at least 1 colonoscopy within the previous 10 years among a population-wide cohort of screening age.

PubMed

Stock, David; Paszat, Lawrence F; Rabeneck, Linda

2016-07-01

Colonoscopy has been demonstrated to be effective in colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality reduction, although current screening guidelines have yet to be evaluated. We assessed the protective benefit of colonoscopy within the previous 10 years and whether this effect is maintained with age. We used administrative data to compare risk of CRC death (CCD) across colonoscopy utilization among a population-wide cohort comprising individuals aged 60 to 80 years (N = 1,509,423). Baseline and time-dependent colonoscopy exposure models were assessed in the context of competing "other causes of death" (OCDs). Cumulative incidence of CCD and OCD across colonoscopy exposure, over follow-up, was estimated. Relative hazards were computed by age strata (60-69 years, 70-74 years, 75+ years) and proximal and distal cancer subsites. At least 1 colonoscopy during 10 years before baseline was estimated to provide a 51% reduced hazard of CCD (hazard ratio [HR] 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.45-0.54) over the following 8 years. When colonoscopy was modeled as a time-dependent covariate, the risk of CCD was further diminished (multivariable-adjusted HR 0.36; 95% CI, 0.33-0.38). Stratified analyses suggested moderately attenuated CCD risk reduction among the oldest age group; however, consideration of OCDs suggest that this is related to competing risks. CCD risk reduction related to colonoscopy was lower for proximal cancers. Colonoscopy within the previous 10 years provides substantial protective benefit for average-risk individuals over 60 years. CCD risk reduction may be maintained well beyond 74 years, a common upper age limit recommended by screening guidelines. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of malnutrition upon all-cause mortality among children in Swaziland.

PubMed

Acevedo, Paula; García Esteban, María Teresa; Lopez-Ejeda, Noemí; Gómez, Amador; Marrodán, María Dolores

2017-04-01

To analyze the effect of the type of malnutrition, sex, age and the presence of edema upon all-cause mortality in children under 5 years of age. A cross-sectional study was conducted during 2010 and 2011 in Swaziland. Sex, age, weight and height were taken to classify nutritional status according to the 2006 WHO growth standards: stunting (low height for age), wasting (low weight for height or low body mass index for age) and underweight (low weight for age). The sample (309 boys and 244 girls under 5 years of age) was analyzed by sex and age groups (under and equal/over 12 months). The association between variables was evaluated using the χ 2 test. Cox regression analysis (HR, 95% CI) was used to assess the likelihood of mortality. The mortality risk in malnourished children under one year of age was lower among females and increased in the presence of severe edema. Wasting combined with underweight increased the mortality risk in children under 12 months of age 5-fold, versus 11-fold in older children. The combination of stunting, wasting and underweight was closely associated to mortality. Stunting alone (not combined with wasting) did not significantly increase the mortality risk. Sex, severe edema and wasting are predictors of mortality in malnourished children. Regardless of these factors, children with deficiencies referred to weight for height and weight for age present a greater mortality risk in comparison with children who present stunting only. Copyright © 2017 SEEN. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Trends in asthma mortality in the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups in Brazil

PubMed Central

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Carneiro, Dominique Piacenti; Vieira, Rodolfo de Paula

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To provide an update on trends in asthma mortality in Brazil for two age groups: 0-4 years and 5-34 years. Methods: Data on mortality from asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases, were obtained for the 1980-2014 period from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. To analyze time trends in standardized asthma mortality rates, we conducted an ecological time-series study, using regression models for the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups. Results: There was a linear trend toward a decrease in asthma mortality in both age groups, whereas there was a third-order polynomial fit in the general population. Conclusions: Although asthma mortality showed a consistent, linear decrease in individuals ≤ 34 years of age, the rate of decline was greater in the 0- to 4-year age group. The 5- to 34-year group also showed a linear decline in mortality, and the rate of that decline increased after the year 2004, when treatment with inhaled corticosteroids became more widely available. The linear decrease in asthma mortality found in both age groups contrasts with the nonlinear trend observed in the general population of Brazil. The introduction of inhaled corticosteroid use through public policies to control asthma coincided with a significant decrease in asthma mortality rates in both subsets of individuals over 5 years of age. The causes of this decline in asthma-related mortality in younger age groups continue to constitute a matter of debate. PMID:28380185

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims

PubMed Central

Sharp, Sandra M; Bevan, Gwyn; Skinner, Jonathan S; Gottlieb, Daniel J

2014-01-01

Objective To compare the performance of two new approaches to risk adjustment that are free of the influence of observational intensity with methods that depend on diagnoses listed in administrative databases. Setting Administrative data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. Design Cross sectional analysis. Participants 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in one of 306 hospital referral regions in the United States in 2007 (n=5 153 877). Main outcome measures The effect of health risk adjustment on age, sex, and race adjusted mortality and spending rates among hospital referral regions using four indices: the standard Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services—Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) index used by the US Medicare program (calculated from diagnoses listed in Medicare’s administrative database); a visit corrected HCC index (to reduce the effects of observational intensity on frequency of diagnoses); a poverty index (based on US census); and a population health index (calculated using data on incidence of hip fractures and strokes, and responses from a population based annual survey of health from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Results Estimated variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates across hospital referral regions was reduced using the indices based on population health, poverty, and visit corrected HCC, but increased using the standard HCC index. Most of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality was explained (in terms of weighted R2) by the population health index: R2=0.65. The other indices explained less: R2=0.20 for the visit corrected HCC index; 0.19 for the poverty index, and 0.02 for the standard HCC index. The residual variation in age, sex, race, and price adjusted spending per capita across the 306 hospital referral regions explained by the indices (in terms of weighted R2) were 0.50 for the standard HCC index, 0.21 for the population health index, 0.12 for the poverty index, and 0.07 for the visit corrected HCC index, implying that only a modest amount of the variation in spending can be explained by factors most closely related to mortality. Further, once the HCC index is visit corrected it accounts for almost none of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted spending. Conclusion Health risk adjustment using either the poverty index or the population health index performed substantially better in terms of explaining actual mortality than the indices that relied on diagnoses from administrative databases; the population health index explained the majority of residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality. Owing to the influence of observational intensity on diagnoses from administrative databases, the standard HCC index over-adjusts for regional differences in spending. Research to improve health risk adjustment methods should focus on developing measures of risk that do not depend on observation influenced diagnoses recorded in administrative databases. PMID:24721838

Determining the functional form of density dependence: deductive approaches for consumer-resource systems having a single resource.

PubMed

Abrams, Peter A

2009-09-01

Consumer-resource models are used to deduce the functional form of density dependence in the consumer population. A general approach to determining the form of consumer density dependence is proposed; this involves determining the equilibrium (or average) population size for a series of different harvest rates. The relationship between a consumer's mortality and its equilibrium population size is explored for several one-consumer/one-resource models. The shape of density dependence in the resource and the shape of the numerical and functional responses all tend to be "inherited" by the consumer's density dependence. Consumer-resource models suggest that density dependence will very often have both concave and convex segments, something that is impossible under the commonly used theta-logistic model. A range of consumer-resource models predicts that consumer population size often declines at a decelerating rate with mortality at low mortality rates, is insensitive to or increases with mortality over a wide range of intermediate mortalities, and declines at a rapidly accelerating rate with increased mortality when mortality is high. This has important implications for management and conservation of natural populations.

Socioeconomic deprivation as a determinant of cancer mortality and the Hispanic paradox in Texas, USA.

PubMed

Philips, Billy U; Belasco, Eric; Markides, Kyriakos S; Gong, Gordon

2013-04-15

We have recently reported that delayed cancer detection is associated with the Wellbeing Index (WI) for socioeconomic deprivation, lack of health insurance, physician shortage, and Hispanic ethnicity. The current study investigates whether these factors are determinants of cancer mortality in Texas, the United States of America (USA). Data for breast, colorectal, female genital system, lung, prostate, and all-type cancers are obtained from the Texas Cancer Registry. A weighted regression model for non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, and African Americans is used with age-adjusted mortality (2004-2008 data combined) for each county as the dependent variable while independent variables include WI, percentage of the uninsured, and physician supply. Higher mortality for breast, female genital system, lung, and all-type cancers is associated with higher WI among non-Hispanic whites and/or African Americans but with lower WI in Hispanics after adjusting for physician supply and percentage of the uninsured. Mortality for all the cancers studied is in the following order from high to low: African Americans, non-Hispanic whites, and Hispanics. Lung cancer mortality is particularly low in Hispanics, which is only 35% of African Americans' mortality and 40% of non-Hispanic whites' mortality. Higher degree of socioeconomic deprivation is associated with higher mortality of several cancers among non-Hispanic whites and African Americans, but with lower mortality among Hispanics in Texas. Also, mortality rates of all these cancers studied are the lowest in Hispanics. Further investigations are needed to better understand the mechanisms of the Hispanic Paradox.

The impact of obesity on US mortality levels: the importance of age and cohort factors in population estimates.

PubMed

Masters, Ryan K; Reither, Eric N; Powers, Daniel A; Yang, Y Claire; Burger, Andrew E; Link, Bruce G

2013-10-01

To estimate the percentage of excess death for US Black and White men and women associated with high body mass, we examined the combined effects of age variation in the obesity-mortality relationship and cohort variation in age-specific obesity prevalence. We examined 19 National Health Interview Survey waves linked to individual National Death Index mortality records, 1986-2006, for age and cohort patterns in the population-level association between obesity and US adult mortality. The estimated percentage of adult deaths between 1986 and 2006 associated with overweight and obesity was 5.0% and 15.6% for Black and White men, and 26.8% and 21.7% for Black and White women, respectively. We found a substantially stronger association than previous research between obesity and mortality risk at older ages, and an increasing percentage of mortality attributable to obesity across birth cohorts. Previous research has likely underestimated obesity's impact on US mortality. Methods attentive to cohort variation in obesity prevalence and age variation in obesity's effect on mortality risk suggest that obesity significantly shapes US mortality levels, placing it at the forefront of concern for public health action.

The associations between nationality, fertility history and diabetes-related mortality: a retrospective cohort study in the Brussels-Capital Region (2001-2005).

PubMed

Vandenheede, Hadewijch; Deboosere, Patrick; Gadeyne, Sylvie; De Spiegelaere, Myriam

2012-03-01

The relationship between women's parity and diabetes mortality has been investigated in several studies, with mixed results. This study aims to establish if parity and age at first birth are associated with diabetes-related mortality and if these factors contribute to variations in diabetes-related mortality among women with different nationalities. Data of the 2001 census are linked to registration records of all deaths and emigrations (period 2001-2005). The study population comprises all female inhabitants of the Brussels-Capital Region aged 45-74 of either Belgian or North African nationality (n = 108 296). Age-standardized mortality rates (direct standardization) and mortality rate ratios (Poisson's regression) are computed. Both parity and age at first birth are associated with diabetes-related mortality. Highest risks of dying from diabetes are observed among grandmultiparous women and teenage mothers. Differences in diabetes-related mortality according to nationality are observed. Age-standardized diabetes mortality rates are higher in North African [ASMR = 417.4/100,000; 95% confidence interval (CI) 227.2-607.7] than in Belgian women (ASMR = 184.0/100,000; 95% CI 157.3-210.8). Taking parity, age at first birth and education into account, these differences largely disappear. Reproductive factors are associated with diabetes-related mortality and play an important part in the higher diabetes-related mortality of North African compared with Belgian women.

The interaction between individualism and wellbeing in predicting mortality: Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe.

PubMed

Okely, Judith A; Weiss, Alexander; Gale, Catharine R

2018-02-01

The link between greater wellbeing and longevity is well documented. The aim of the current study was to test whether this association is consistent across individualistic and collectivistic cultures. The sample consisted of 13,596 participants from 11 European countries, each of which was assigned an individualism score according to Hofstede et al.'s (Cultures and organizations: software of the mind, McGraw Hill, New York, 2010) cultural dimension of individualism. We tested whether individualism moderated the cross-sectional association between wellbeing and self-rated health or the longitudinal association between wellbeing and mortality risk. Our analysis revealed a significant interaction between individualism and wellbeing such that the association between wellbeing and self-rated health or risk of mortality from cardiovascular disease was stronger in more individualistic countries. However, the interaction between wellbeing and individualism was not significant in analysis predicting all-cause mortality. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm our finding and to explore the factors responsible for this culturally dependent effect.

Natural mortality: Its ecology, how it shapes fish life histories, and why it may be increased by fishing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jørgensen, Christian; Holt, Rebecca E.

2013-01-01

A stronger focus on natural mortality may be required to better understand contemporary changes in fish life histories and behaviour and their responses to anthropogenic drivers. Firstly, natural mortality is the selection under which fish evolved in the first place, so a theoretical understanding of effects of natural mortality alone is needed. Secondly, due to trade-offs, most organismal functions can only be achieved at some cost in terms of survival. Several trade-offs might need to be analysed simultaneously with effects on natural mortality being a common currency. Thirdly, there is scattered evidence that natural mortality has been increasing, some would say dramatically, in some fished stocks, which begs explanations. Fourthly, natural mortality most often implies transfer of mass and energy from one species to another, and therefore has foodweb and ecosystem consequences. We therefore analyse a model for evolution of fish life histories and behaviour, where state-dependent energy-allocation and growth strategies are found by optimization. Natural mortality is split into five different components, each specified as the outcome of individual traits and ecological trade-offs: a fixed baseline mortality; size-dependent predation; risk-dependent growth strategy; a fixed mortality when sexually mature; and mortality increasing with reproductive investment. The analysis is repeated with and without fishing. Each component of natural mortality has consequences for optimal life history strategies. Beyond earlier models, we show i) how the two types of reproductive mortality sometimes have similar and sometimes contrasting effects on life history evolution, ii) how ecosystem properties such as food availability and predation levels have stronger effects on optimal strategies than changing other mortality components, and iii) how expected changes in risk-dependent growth strategies are highly variable depending on the type of mortality changed.

Impact of age at diagnosis and duration of type 2 diabetes on mortality in Australia 1997-2011.

PubMed

Huo, Lili; Magliano, Dianna J; Rancière, Fanny; Harding, Jessica L; Nanayakkara, Natalie; Shaw, Jonathan E; Carstensen, Bendix

2018-05-01

Current evidence suggests that type 2 diabetes may have a greater impact on those with earlier diagnosis (longer duration of disease), but data are limited. We examined the effect of age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes on the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality over 15 years. The data of 743,709 Australians with type 2 diabetes who were registered on the National Diabetes Services Scheme (NDSS) between 1997 and 2011 were examined. Mortality data were derived by linking the NDSS to the National Death Index. All-cause mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and all other causes were identified. Poisson regression was used to model mortality rates by sex, current age, age at diagnosis, diabetes duration and calendar time. The median age at registration on the NDSS was 60.2 years (interquartile range [IQR] 50.9-69.5) and the median follow-up was 7.2 years (IQR 3.4-11.3). The median age at diagnosis was 58.6 years (IQR 49.4-67.9). A total of 115,363 deaths occurred during 7.20 million person-years of follow-up. During the first 1.8 years after diabetes diagnosis, rates of all-cause and cancer mortality declined and CVD mortality was constant. All mortality rates increased exponentially with age. An earlier diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (longer duration of disease) was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality, primarily driven by CVD mortality. A 10 year earlier diagnosis (equivalent to 10 years' longer duration of diabetes) was associated with a 1.2-1.3 times increased risk of all-cause mortality and about 1.6 times increased risk of CVD mortality. The effects were similar in men and women. For mortality due to cancer (all cancers and colorectal and lung cancers), we found that earlier diagnosis of type 2 diabetes was associated with lower mortality compared with diagnosis at an older age. Our findings suggest that younger-onset type 2 diabetes increases mortality risk, and that this is mainly through earlier CVD mortality. Efforts to delay the onset of type 2 diabetes might, therefore, reduce mortality.

Physical Activity in Advanced Age: Physical Activity, Function, and Mortality in Advanced Age: A Longitudinal Follow Up (LiLACS NZ).

PubMed

Mace Firebaugh, Casey; Moyes, Simon; Jatrana, Santosh; Rolleston, Anna; Kerse, Ngaire

2018-01-18

The relationship between physical activity, function, and mortality is not established in advanced age. Physical activity, function, and mortality were followed in a cohort of Māori and non-Māori adults living in advanced age for a period of six years. Generalised Linear regression models were used to analyse the association between physical activity and NEADL while Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and Cox-proportional hazard models were used to assess the association between the physical activity and mortality. The Hazard Ratio for mortality for those in the least active physical activity quartile was 4.1 for Māori and 1.8 for non- Māori compared to the most active physical activity quartile. There was an inverse relationship between physical activity and mortality, with lower hazard ratios for mortality at all levels of physical activity. Higher levels of physical activity were associated with lower mortality and higher functional status in advanced aged adults.

Responses by pacific halibut to air exposure: Lack of correspondence among plasma constituents and mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, M.W.; Schreck, C.B.

2005-01-01

Age-1 and age-2 Pacific halibut Hippoglossus stenolepis were exposed to a range of times in air (0-60 min) and air temperatures (10??C or 16??C) that simulated conditions on deck after capture to test for correspondence among responses in plasma constituents and mortality. Pacific halibut mortality generally did not correspond with cortisol, glucose, sodium, and potassium since the maximum observed plasma concentrations were reached after exposure to 30 min in air, while significant mortality occurred only after exposure to 40 min in air for age-1 fish and 60 min in air for age-2 fish. Predicting mortality in discarded Pacific halibut using these plasma constituents does not appear to be feasible. Lactate concentrations corresponded with mortality in age-1 fish exposed to 16??C and may be useful predictors of discard mortality under a limited set of fishing conditions.

Host age modulates within-host parasite competition

PubMed Central

Izhar, Rony; Routtu, Jarkko; Ben-Ami, Frida

2015-01-01

In many host populations, one of the most striking differences among hosts is their age. While parasite prevalence differences in relation to host age are well known, little is known on how host age impacts ecological and evolutionary dynamics of diseases. Using two clones of the water flea Daphnia magna and two clones of its bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa, we examined how host age at exposure influences within-host parasite competition and virulence. We found that multiply-exposed hosts were more susceptible to infection and suffered higher mortality than singly-exposed hosts. Hosts oldest at exposure were least often infected and vice versa. Furthermore, we found that in young multiply-exposed hosts competition was weak, allowing coexistence and transmission of both parasite clones, whereas in older multiply-exposed hosts competitive exclusion was observed. Thus, age-dependent parasite exposure and host demography (age structure) could together play an important role in mediating parasite evolution. At the individual level, our results demonstrate a previously unnoticed interaction of the host's immune system with host age, suggesting that the specificity of immune function changes as hosts mature. Therefore, evolutionary models of parasite virulence might benefit from incorporating age-dependent epidemiological parameters. PMID:25994010

[Start of PTB (Phthisis) mortality statistics in Japan (1)].

PubMed

Shimao, Tadao

2008-12-01

First "Statistics Annual", which included the population and vital statistics was published in Japan in 1882, and the numbers of death classified by major causes of death were tabulated by sex and age groups and by prefecture. Koch R reported the discovery of tubercle bacilli as the pathogen for TB in 1882, and since the latter half of 1883, the numbers of death due to PTB (Phthisis) were tabulated by prefecture, and by sex and age groups since 1884 annually except for 1885. Based on the population statistics and the numbers of PTB death, PTB (Phthisis) mortality was calculated by sex and age groups, and the results were shown in Table 1. PTB mortality per 100,000 increased from 78.2 in 1884 to 171.9 in 1899. Sex- and age-specific PTB mortality in 1884 showed a pattern increasing with age, and the PTB mortality of male was higher than that of female in adult as shown in Fig. 2. In 1889, low peak of mortality was seen in the age groups 15-19 and 20-29, and in these age groups, the PTB mortality was higher in female than in male. Such trend was seen more markedly in 1894 and 1899, while the rate was higher in male than in female in the age groups over 40. Trend of PTB mortality by sex and age groups was shown in Fig. 3. Rapid increase of PTB mortality in the age groups 10-14 and 20-29 could be explained by the rapid increase of young women workers in fast growing silk and spinning industries, but how rapid increase of PTB mortality in infants be explained? In "Statistics Annual", PTB (Phthisis) mortality rate by prefecture was printed, and the summarized table was shown in Table 2. The rates in 1883 and 1884 were calculated from the numbers of PTB death and the B-type population shown in the "Statistics Annual", which will be described in the next issue of this paper.

Historical Evolution of Old-Age Mortality and New Approaches to Mortality Forecasting

PubMed Central

Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Gavrilova, Natalia S.; Krut'ko, Vyacheslav N.

2017-01-01

Knowledge of future mortality levels and trends is important for actuarial practice but poses a challenge to actuaries and demographers. The Lee-Carter method, currently used for mortality forecasting, is based on the assumption that the historical evolution of mortality at all age groups is driven by one factor only. This approach cannot capture an additive manner of mortality decline observed before the 1960s. To overcome the limitation of the one-factor model of mortality and to determine the true number of factors underlying mortality changes over time, we suggest a new approach to mortality analysis and forecasting based on the method of latent variable analysis. The basic assumption of this approach is that most variation in mortality rates over time is a manifestation of a small number of latent variables, variation in which gives rise to the observed mortality patterns. To extract major components of mortality variation, we apply factor analysis to mortality changes in developed countries over the period of 1900–2014. Factor analysis of time series of age-specific death rates in 12 developed countries (data taken from the Human Mortality Database) identified two factors capable of explaining almost 94 to 99 percent of the variance in the temporal changes of adult death rates at ages 25 to 85 years. Analysis of these two factors reveals that the first factor is a “young-age” or background factor with high factor loadings at ages 30 to 45 years. The second factor can be called an “oldage” or senescent factor because of high factor loadings at ages 65 to 85 years. It was found that the senescent factor was relatively stable in the past but now is rapidly declining for both men and women. The decline of the senescent factor is faster for men, although in most countries, it started almost 30 years later. Factor analysis of time series of age-specific death rates conducted for the oldest-old ages (65 to 100 years) found two factors explaining variation of mortality at extremely old ages in the United States. The first factor is comparable to the senescent factor found for adult mortality. The second factor, however, is specific to extreme old ages (96 to 100 years) and shows peaks in 1960 and 2000. Although mortality below 90 to 95 years shows a steady decline with time driven by the senescent factor, mortality of centenarians does not decline and remains relatively stable. The approach suggested in this paper has several advantages. First, it is able to determine the total number of independent factors affecting mortality changes over time. Second, this approach allows researchers to determine the time interval in which underlying factors remain stable or undergo rapid changes. Most methods of mortality projections are not able to identify the best base period for mortality projections, attempting to use the longest-possible time period instead. We observe that the senescent factor of mortality continues to decline, and this decline does not demonstrate any indications of slowing down. At the same time, mortality of centenarians does not decline and remains stable. The lack of mortality decline at extremely old ages may diminish anticipated longevity gains in the future. PMID:29170765

Patterns of Mortality in Patients Treated with Dental Implants: A Comparison of Patient Age Groups and Corresponding Reference Populations.

PubMed

Jemt, Torsten; Kowar, Jan; Nilsson, Mats; Stenport, Victoria

2015-01-01

Little is known about the relationship between implant patient mortality compared to reference populations. The aim of this study was to report the mortality pattern in patients treated with dental implants up to a 15-year period, and to compare this to mortality in reference populations with regard to age at surgery, sex, and degree of tooth loss. Patient cumulative survival rate (CSR) was calculated for a total of 4,231 treated implant patients from a single clinic. Information was based on surgical registers in the clinic and the National Population Register in Sweden. Patients were arranged into age groups of 10 years, and CSR was compared to that of the reference population of comparable age and reported in relation to age at surgery, sex, and type of jaw/dentition. A similar, consistent, general relationship between CSR of different age groups of implant patients and reference populations could be observed for all parameters studied. Completely edentulous patients presented higher mortality than partially edentulous patients (P < .05). Furthermore, implant patients in younger age groups showed mortality similar to or higher than reference populations, while older patient age groups showed increasingly lower mortality than comparable reference populations for edentulous and partially edentulous patients (P < .05). A consistent pattern of mortality in different age groups of patients compared to reference populations was observed, indicating higher patient mortality in younger age groups and lower in older groups. The reported pattern is not assumed to be related to implant treatment per se, but is assumed to reflect the variation in general health of a selected subgroup of treated implant patients compared to the reference population in different age groups.

Age-dependent prognostic significance of atrial fibrillation in outpatients with chronic heart failure: data from the Italian Network on Congestive Heart Failure Registry.

PubMed

Baldasseroni, Samuele; Orso, Francesco; Fabbri, Gianna; De Bernardi, Alberto; Cirrincione, Vincenzo; Gonzini, Lucio; Fumagalli, Stefano; Marchionni, Niccolò; Midi, Paolo; Maggioni, Aldo Pietro

2010-01-01

The role of atrial fibrillation (AF) in older patients with heart failure (HF) is controversial because many variables seem to influence their outcome. We investigated the predictivity of AF in 3 age groups of outpatients with HF. We analyzed 8,178 outpatients enrolled in the Italian Network on Congestive Heart Failure Registry with HF diagnosed according to the European Society of Cardiology criteria. A trained cardiologist established the diagnosis of AF and HF at the entry visit at each center. We stratified the population into 3 age groups, as follows: group A, < or =65 years; group B, 66-75 years, and group C, >75 years. Group A was composed of 4,261 patients, 683 with AF (16.0%); in group B there were 2,651 patients, 638 with AF (24.1%), and group C was composed of 1,266 patients, 412 with AF (32.5%). The 1-year mortality rate was higher in AF patients in all groups. In a multivariate model, AF remained an independent risk factor for death in groups A and B, but not in group C [group A: hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.81; group B: HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.00-1.67; group C: HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.78-1.43]. The prevalence of AF increased with age and was associated with a higher mortality rate. However, AF independently predicted all-cause mortality only in patients aged < or =75 years. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Wealth and mortality at older ages: a prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Demakakos, Panayotes; Biddulph, Jane P; Bobak, Martin; Marmot, Michael G

2016-01-01

Background Despite the importance of socioeconomic position for survival, total wealth, which is a measure of accumulation of assets over the life course, has been underinvestigated as a predictor of mortality. We investigated the association between total wealth and mortality at older ages. Methods We estimated Cox proportional hazards models using a sample of 10 305 community-dwelling individuals aged ≥50 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Results 2401 deaths were observed over a mean follow-up of 9.4 years. Among participants aged 50–64 years, the fully adjusted HRs for mortality were 1.21 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.59) and 1.77 (1.35 to 2.33) for those in the intermediate and lowest wealth tertiles, respectively, compared with those in the highest wealth tertile. The respective HRs were 2.54 (1.27 to 5.09) and 3.73 (1.86 to 7.45) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.36 (0.76 to 2.42) and 2.53 (1.45 to 4.41) for other non-cancer mortality. Wealth was not associated with cancer mortality in the fully adjusted model. Similar but less strong associations were observed among participants aged ≥65 years. The use of repeated measurements of wealth and covariates brought about only minor changes, except for the association between wealth and cardiovascular mortality, which became less strong in the younger participants. Wealth explained the associations between paternal occupation at age 14 years, education, occupational class, and income and mortality. Conclusions There are persisting wealth inequalities in mortality at older ages, which only partially are explained by established risk factors. Wealth appears to be more strongly associated with mortality than other socioeconomic position measures. PMID:26511887

Inequalities in suicide mortality rates and the economic recession in the municipalities of Catalonia, Spain.

PubMed

Saurina, Carme; Marzo, Manel; Saez, Marc

2015-09-08

While previous research already exists on the impact of the current economic crisis and whether it leads to an increase in mortality by suicide, our objective in this paper is to determine if the increase in the suicide rate in Catalonia, Spain from 2010 onwards has been statistically significant and whether it is associated with rising unemployment. We used hierarchical mixed models, separately considering the crude death rate of suicides for municipalities with more than and less than 10,000 inhabitants as dependent variables both unstratified and stratified according to gender and/or age group. In municipalities with 10,000 or more inhabitants there was an increase in the relative risk of suicide from 2009 onwards. This increase was only statistically significant for working-aged women (16-64 years). In municipalities with less than 10,000 inhabitants the relative risk showed a decreasing trend even after 2009. In no case did we find the unemployment rate to be associated (statistically significant) with the suicide rate. The increase in the suicide rate from 2010 in Catalonia was not statistically significant as a whole, with the exception of working-aged women (16-64 years) living in municipalities with 10,000 or more inhabitants. We have not found this increase to be associated with rising unemployment in any of the cases. Future research into the effects of economic recessions on suicide mortality should take into account inequalities by age, sex and size of municipalities.

In-Hospital Mortality with Deep Venous Thrombosis.

PubMed

Stein, Paul D; Matta, Fadi; Hughes, Mary J

2017-05-01

Little is known about the in-hospital mortality of deep venous thrombosis in recent years. This investigation was undertaken to determine trends in in-hospital mortality in patients with deep venous thrombosis and mortality according to age. Administrative data were analyzed from the National (Nationwide) Inpatient Sample, 2003-2012. We determined in-hospital all-cause mortality according to year and age among patients with a primary (first-listed) diagnosis of deep venous thrombosis. We analyzed all such patients and we analyzed those who had none of the comorbid conditions listed in the Charlson Comorbidity Index. From 2003-2012, 1,603,690 hospitalized patients had a primary diagnosis of deep venous thrombosis. All-cause in-hospital mortality decreased from 1.3% in 2003 to 0.6% in 2012. Mortality increased with age from 0.1% in those aged 18-20 years to 1.5% in those over age 80 years. All-cause in-hospital mortality in those with no comorbid conditions according to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (1,094,184 patients) decreased from 1.1% in 2003 to 0.5% in 2012. Presumably, these deaths were from pulmonary embolism. All-cause mortality in those with no comorbid conditions increased with age from 0.1% in those aged 18-20 years to 1.4% in those over aged 80 years. All-cause death and death due to pulmonary embolism in patients hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of deep venous thrombosis decreased from 2003-2012. The death rate increased with age. The decreased mortality over the period of investigation may have resulted from a shift toward use of low-molecular-weight heparins and newer anticoagulants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in diabetes mellitus mortality in Puerto Rico: 1980-1997.

PubMed

Pérez-Perdomo, R; Pérez-Cardona, C M; Suárez-Pérez, E L

2001-03-01

To determine the characteristics and trends of diabetes mortality among the Puerto Rican population from 1980 through 1997. Death certificates for Puerto Rican residents whose underlying cause of death was diabetes mellitus (ICD-9-250.0) were reviewed, and sociodemographic information was abstracted. The proportion mortality ratio (PMR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by gender, age group, educational level and period of time. Trend analysis in mortality was performed using a Poisson regression model. A total of 26,193 deaths (5.8%) were primarily attributed to diabetes mellitus in the study period. Females accounted for 55.8% of all diabetes related deaths. Diabetes accounted for a higher proportion of deaths among persons aged 60-64 years (8.14%), persons aged 65-74 (8.12%), females (7.73%) and those with 1-6 years of education (7.08%). The PMR steadily increased from 4.55% in the 1980-85 period to 6.91% in the 1992-97 period. There was a higher mortality in male diabetic subjects aged < or = 64 than in females during the 18 year period. Between 1980 and 1991, females aged 65-74 had a higher mortality than males, however, mortality increased in males of the same age group during 1992-97. When the oldest age group (> or = 75) was examined, males had a higher mortality between 1986 and 1997, whereas females had a slightly higher rate between 1980 and 1985. Our results indicate that diabetes mortality has been markedly increasing in the Puerto Rican population, primarily in persons aged 65 years or more. Further analysis is needed to evaluate the determinants of mortality in diabetes.

Mortality among US-born and immigrant Hispanics in the US: effects of nativity, duration of residence, and age at immigration.

PubMed

Holmes, Julia S; Driscoll, Anne K; Heron, Melonie

2015-07-01

We examined the effects of duration of residence and age at immigration on mortality among US-born and foreign-born Hispanics aged 25 and older. We analyzed the National Health Interview Survey-National Death Index linked files from 1997-2009 with mortality follow-up through 2011. We used Cox proportional hazard models to examine the effects of duration of US residence and age at immigration on mortality for US-born and foreign-born Hispanics, controlling for various demographic, socioeconomic and health factors. Age at immigration included 4 age groups: <18, 18-24, 25-34, and 35+ years. Duration of residence was 0-15 and >15 years. We observed a mortality advantage among Hispanic immigrants compared to US-born Hispanics only for those who had come to the US after age 24 regardless of how long they had lived in the US. Hispanics who immigrated as youths (<18) did not differ from US-born Hispanics on mortality despite duration of residence. Findings suggest that age at immigration, rather than duration of residence, drives differences in mortality between Hispanic immigrants and the US-born Hispanic population.

[Predictive factors of mortality in extremely preterm infants].

PubMed

Lin, L; Fang, M C; Jiang, H; Zhu, M L; Chen, S Q; Lin, Z L

2018-04-02

Objective: To investigate the predictive factors of mortality in extremely preterm infants. Methods: The retrospective case-control study was accomplished in the Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University. A total of 268 extremely preterm infants seen from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2015 were divided into survival group (192 cases) and death group (76 cases). The potential predictive factors of mortality were identified by univariate analysis, and then analyzed by multivariate unconditional Logistic regression analysis. The mortality and predictive factors were also compared between two time periods, which were January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2007 (65 cases) and January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2015 (203 cases). Results: The median gestational age (GA) of extremely preterm infants was 27 weeks (23 +3 -27 +6 weeks). The mortality was higher in infants with GA of 25-<26 weeks ( OR= 2.659, 95% CI: 1.211-5.840) and<25 weeks ( OR= 10.029, 95% CI: 3.266-30.792) compared to that in infants with GA> 26 weeks. From January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2015, the number of extremely preterm infants was increased significantly compared to the previous 9 years, while the mortality decreased significantly ( OR= 0.490, 95% CI: 0.272-0.884). Multivariate unconditional Logistic regression analysis showed that GA below 25 weeks ( OR= 6.033, 95% CI: 1.393-26.133), lower birth weight ( OR= 0.997, 95% CI: 0.995-1.000), stage Ⅲ necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) ( OR= 15.907, 95% CI: 3.613-70.033), grade Ⅰ and Ⅱ intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) ( OR= 0.260, 95% CI: 0.117-0.575) and dependence on invasive mechanical ventilation ( OR= 3.630, 95% CI: 1.111-11.867) were predictive factors of mortality in extremely preterm infants. Conclusions: GA below 25 weeks, lower birth weight, stage Ⅲ NEC and dependence on invasive mechanical ventilation are risk factors of mortality in extremely preterm infants. But grade ⅠandⅡ IVH is protective factor.

All-cause and cause-specific mortality of social assistance recipients in Norway: a register-based follow-up study.

PubMed

Naper, Sille Ohrem

2009-11-01

To investigate the mortality among social assistance recipients, who are among the most marginalized people in Norway. Cause-specific mortality was analysed in an attempt to explain the excess mortality. Previous research has suggested that social disadvantage leads to higher mortality from all causes, whereas others have found substantial variation when studying separate causes. The impact of the various causes will influence policy recommendations. Data were compiled through linking between Norwegian administrative records. The entire population born between 1935 and 1974 (2,297,621 people) was followed with respect to social assistance and death from 1993 to 2003. Cause-specific, age-standardized mortality rates for social assistance recipients and the rest of the population were calculated, and both the absolute (rate difference) and relative (rate ratio) rates were measured. The rate ratio for total mortality was 3.1 for men and 2.5 for women for the comparison between social assistance recipients and the general population. The mortality among social assistance recipients was higher for all causes, but the magnitude differed considerably, depending on the cause. The rate ratio for men ranged from 1.2 for non-smoking-related cancer to 18.8 for alcohol- and drug-related causes. Alcohol-and drug-related and violent causes together contributed to half of the excess mortality for men and one-third for women. The mortality of this socially disadvantaged group was considerably higher than that of the general population, and this difference reflected mainly drug-related causes.

Estimation of the individual residual risk of cervical cancer after vaccination with the nonavalent HPV vaccine.

PubMed

Petry, Karl-Ulrich; Bollaerts, Kaatje; Bonanni, Paolo; Stanley, Margaret; Drury, Rosybel; Joura, Elmar; Kjaer, Susanne K; Meijer, Chris J L M; Riethmuller, Didier; Soubeyrand, Benoit; Van Damme, Pierre; Bosch, Xavier

2018-03-19

The nonavalent HPV (9vHPV) vaccine is indicated for active immunisation of individuals from the age of 9 years against cervical, vulvar, vaginal and anal premalignant lesions and cancers causally related to vaccine HPV high risk types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58, and to the HPV low risk types 6 and 11, causing genital warts. To estimate the lifetime risk (up to the age of 75 years) for developing cervical cancer after vaccinating a HPV naïve girl (e.g. 9 to 12 years old) with the 9vHPV vaccine in the hypothetical absence of cervical cancer screening. We built Monte Carlo simulation models using historical pre-screening age-specific cancer incidence data and current mortality data from Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and the UK. Estimates of genotype contribution fractions and vaccine efficacy were used to estimate the residual lifetime risk after vaccination assuming lifelong protection. We estimated that, in the hypothetical absence of cervical screening and assuming lifelong protection, 9vHPV vaccination reduced the lifetime cervical cancer and mortality risks 7-fold with a residual lifetime cancer risks ranging from 1/572 (UK) to 1/238 (Denmark) and mortality risks ranging from 1/1488 (UK) to 1/851 (Denmark). After decades of repetitive cervical screenings, the lifetime cervical cancer and mortality risks was reduced between 2- and 4-fold depending on the country. Our simulations demonstrate how evidence can be generated to support decision-making by individual healthcare seekers regarding cervical cancer prevention.

Etiology of child mortality in Goroka, Papua New Guinea: a prospective two-year study.

PubMed Central

Duke, Trevor; Michael, Audrey; Mgone, Joyce; Frank, Dale; Wal, Tilda; Sehuko, Rebecca

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To collect accurate data on disease- and microbial-specific causes and avoidable factors in child deaths in a developing country. METHODS: A systematic prospective audit of deaths of children seen at Goroka Hospital in the highlands of Papua New Guinea was carried out. Over a 24-month period, we studied 353 consecutive deaths of children: 126 neonates, 186 children aged 1-59 months, and 41 children aged 5-12 years. FINDINGS: The most frequent age-specific clinical diagnoses were as follows: for neonates--very low birth weight, septicaemia, birth asphyxia and congenital syphilis; for children aged 1-59 months--pneumonia, septicaemia, marasmus and meningitis; and for children aged 5-12 years--malignancies and septicaemia. At least one microbial cause of death was identified for 179 (50.7%) children and two or more were identified for 37 (10.5%). Nine microbial pathogens accounted for 41% of all childhood deaths and 76% of all deaths that had any infective component. Potentially avoidable factors were identified for 177 (50%) of deaths. The most frequently occurring factors were as follows: no antenatal care in high-risk pregnancies (8.8% of all deaths), very delayed presentation (7.9%), vaccine-preventable diseases (7.9%), informal adoption or child abandonment leading to severe malnutrition (5.7%), and lack of screening for maternal syphilis (5.4%). Sepsis due to enteric Gram-negative bacilli occurred in 87 (24.6%). The strongest associations with death from Gram- negative sepsis were adoption/abandonment leading to severe malnutrition, village births, and prolonged hospital stay. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in child mortality will depend on addressing the commonest causes of death, which include disease states, microbial pathogens, adverse social circumstances and health service failures. Systematic mortality audits in selected regions where child mortality is high may be useful for setting priorities, estimating the potential benefit of specific and non-specific interventions, and providing continuous feedback on the quality of care provided and the outcome of health reforms. PMID:11884969

[Breast cancer screening in Austria: Key figures, age limits, screening intervals and evidence].

PubMed

Jeitler, Klaus; Semlitsch, Thomas; Posch, Nicole; Siebenhofer, Andrea; Horvath, Karl

2015-01-01

In January 2014, the first nationwide quality-assured breast cancer screening program addressing women aged ≥ 40 years was introduced in Austria. As part of the process of developing a patient information leaflet, the Evidence Based Medicine (EBM) Review Center of the Medical University of Graz was charged with the task of assessing the potential benefits and harms of breast cancer screening from the available evidence. Based on these results, key figures were derived for mortality, false-positive and false-negative mammography results, and overdiagnosis, considering Austria-specific incidence rates for breast cancer and breast cancer mortality. Furthermore, the current evidence regarding age limits and screening interval, which were the subjects of controversial public discussions, was analyzed. A systematic search for primary and secondary literature was performed and additional evidence was screened, e. g., evaluation reports of European breast cancer screening programs. On the basis of the available evidence and of the Austrian breast cancer mortality and incidence rates, it can be assumed that - depending on the age group - 1 to 4 breast cancer deaths can be avoided per 1,000 women screened in a structured breast cancer screening program, while the overall mortality remains unchanged. On the other hand, 150 to 200 of these 1,000 women will be affected by false-positive results and 1 to 9 women by overdiagnosis due to the structured breast cancer screening. Therefore, the overall benefit-harm balance is uncertain. If women from 40 to 44 or above 70 years of age are considered, who can also participate in the Austrian screening program, even a negative benefit-harm balance seems possible. However, with the implementation of quality standards in breast cancer screening and the dissemination of a patient information leaflet, an improvement in the medical treatment situation, specifically in terms of informed decision-making, can be expected. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Effects of fluctuating flows and a controlled flood on incubation success and early survival rates and growth of age-0 rainbow trout in a large regulated river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Korman, Josh; Kaplinski, Matthew; Melis, Theodore S.

2011-01-01

Hourly fluctuations in flow from Glen Canyon Dam were increased in an attempt to limit the population of nonnative rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in the Colorado River, Arizona, due to concerns about negative effects of nonnative trout on endangered native fishes. Controlled floods have also been conducted to enhance native fish habitat. We estimated that rainbow trout incubation mortality rates resulting from greater fluctuations in flow were 23-49% (2003 and 2004) compared with 5-11% under normal flow fluctuations (2006-2010). Effects of this mortality were apparent in redd excavations but were not seen in hatch date distributions or in the abundance of the age-0 population. Multiple lines of evidence indicated that a controlled flood in March 2008, which was intended to enhance native fish habitat, resulted in a large increase in early survival rates of age-0 rainbow trout. Age-0 abundance in July 2008 was over fourfold higher than expected given the number of viable eggs that produced these fish. A hatch date analysis indicated that early survival rates were much higher for cohorts that hatched about 1 month after the controlled flood (~April 15) relative to those that hatched before this date. The cohorts that were fertilized after the flood were not exposed to high flows and emerged into better-quality habitat with elevated food availability. Interannual differences in age-0 rainbow trout growth based on otolith microstructure supported this hypothesis. It is likely that strong compensation in survival rates shortly after emergence mitigated the impact of incubation losses caused by increases in flow fluctuations. Control of nonnative fish populations will be most effective when additional mortality is applied to older life stages after the majority of density-dependent mortality has occurred. Our study highlights the need to rigorously assess instream flow decisions through the evaluation of population-level responses.

COLLABORATIVE MODELING OF THE BENEFITS AND HARMS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT U.S. BREAST CANCER SCREENING STRATEGIES

PubMed Central

Mandelblatt, Jeanne S.; Stout, Natasha K.; Schechter, Clyde B.; van den Broek, Jeroen J.; Miglioretti, Diana; Krapcho, Martin; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Munoz, Diego; Lee, Sandra J.; Berry, Donald A.; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T.; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Kerlikowske, Karla; Tosteson, Anna N.A.; Near, Aimee M.; Hoeffken, Amanda; Chang, Yaojen; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A.; Chisholm, Gary; Huang, Xuelin; Huang, Hui; Ergun, Mehmet Ali; Gangnon, Ronald; Sprague, Brian L.; Plevritis, Sylvia; Feuer, Eric; de Koning, Harry J.; Cronin, Kathleen A.

2016-01-01

Background Controversy persists about optimal mammography screening strategies. Objective To evaluate mammography strategies considering screening and treatment advances. Design Collaboration of six simulation models. Data Sources National data on incidence, risk, breast density, digital mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality. Target Population An average-risk cohort. Time Horizon Lifetime. Perspective Societal. Interventions Mammograms from age 40, 45 or 50 to 74 at annual or biennial intervals, or annually from 40 or 45 to 49 then biennially to 74, assuming 100% screening and treatment adherence. Outcome Measures Screening benefits (vs. no screening) include percent breast cancer mortality reduction, deaths averted, and life-years gained. Harms include number of mammograms, false-positives, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis. Results for Average-Risk Women Biennial strategies maintain 79.8%-81.3% (range across strategies and models: 68.3–98.9%) of annual screening benefits with almost half the false-positives and fewer overdiagnoses. Screening biennially from ages 50–74 achieves a median 25.8% (range: 24.1%-31.8%) breast cancer mortality reduction; annual screening from ages 40–74 years reduces mortality an additional 12.0% (range: 5.7%-17.2%) vs. no screening, but yields 1988 more false-positives and 7 more overdiagnoses per 1000 women screened. Annual screening from ages 50–74 had similar benefits as other strategies but more harms, so would not be recommended. Sub-population Results Annual screening starting at age 40 for women who have a two- to four-fold increase in risk has a similar balance of harms and benefits as biennial screening of average-risk women from 50–74. Limitations We do not consider other imaging technologies, polygenic risk, or non-adherence. Conclusion These results suggest that biennial screening is efficient for average-risk groups, but decisions on strategies depend on the weight given to the balance of harms and benefits. Primary Funding Source National Institutes of Health PMID:26756606

The role of exposure on differences in driver death rates by gender and age: Results of a quasi-induced method on crash data in Spain.

PubMed

Pulido, José; Barrio, Gregorio; Hoyos, Juan; Jiménez-Mejías, Eladio; Martín-Rodríguez, María Del Mar; Houwing, Sjoerd; Lardelli-Claret, Pablo

2016-09-01

Part of the differences by age and gender in driver death rates from traffic injuries depends on the amount of exposure (km/year travelled). Unfortunately, direct indicators of exposure are not available in many countries. Our aim was to compare the age and gender differences in death rates with and without adjustment by exposure using a quasi-induced exposure approach in Spain, during 2004-2012. Crude and adjusted death rate ratios (CDRR and ADRR, respectively) were calculated for each age and gender group. To obtain the latter estimates, in accordance with quasi-exposure reasoning, the number of registered drivers was replaced by the number of non-infractor drivers, passively involved in collisions with another vehicle whose driver committed an infraction. 18-29 years and female drivers were chosen as the reference categories for age and gender. Striking differences were found between CDRR and ADRR estimates. When CDRR were estimated, we found the highest traffic mortality among the youngest drivers, except for females in non-urban roads. ADRR however showed the highest mortality among the oldest groups, especially in females, peaking among drivers >74 years in all types of roads. Regarding differences by gender, both estimates revealed higher traffic mortality in males, although the differences were much smaller when using ADRR. CDRR and ADRR for males tended to converge as age increased. Death risk from traffic injuries among drivers is clearly influenced by the amount of exposure. These findings further emphasize the need to obtain direct traffic exposure estimates by subgroups of drivers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differences between Men and Women in Time Trends in Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain (1980-2013).

PubMed

Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Clèries, Ramon; Lidón-Moyano, Cristina; González-de Paz, Luis; Martínez-Sánchez, Jose M

2016-06-01

The main risk factor for lung cancer is smoking, a habit that varies according to age and sex. The objective of this study was to explore trends in lung cancer mortality by sex and age from 1980 to 2013 in Spain. We used lung cancer mortality (International Classification of Diseases code 162 for the 9th edition, and codes C33 and C34 for 10th edition) and population data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude, truncated, age-adjusted mortality and age-specific mortality rates were assessed through joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change (APC). Age-adjusted mortality rate significantly increased from 1980 to 1991 among men (APC=3.12%) and significantly decreased between 2001 and 2013 (APC=-1.53%), a similar pattern was observed in age-specific rates. Among women, age-adjusted mortality rate increased from 1989 (APC 1989-1997=1.82%), with the greatest increase observed from 1997 until the end of the study in 2013 (APC=4.41%). Diverging trends in the prevalence of smoking could explain the increase in the rate of lung cancer-related mortality among Spanish women since the early 1990s. Public health policies should be implemented to reduce tobacco consumption in women and halt the increase in lung cancer mortality. Copyright © 2016 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Age, period, and birth cohort-specific effects on cervical cancer mortality rates in Japanese women and projections for mortality rates over 20-year period (2012-2031).

PubMed

Uchida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Mizuki; Hosobuchi, Ami; Ohta, Ayano; Ohtake, Kazuo; Yamaki, Tutomu; Uchida, Masaki; Odagiri, Youichi; Natsume, Hideshi; Kobayashi, Jun

2014-01-01

We aimed to determine the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on cervical cancer mortality rate trends in Japanese women, by age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Additionally, we analyzed projected mortality rates. We obtained data on the number of cervical cancer deaths in Japanese women from 1975-2011 from the national vital statistics and census population data. A cohort table of mortality rate data was analyzed on the basis of a Bayesian APC model. We also projected the mortality rates for the 2012-2031 period. The period effect was relatively limited, compared with the age and cohort effects. The age effect increased suddenly from 25-29 to 45-49 years of age and gently increased thereafter. An analysis of the cohort effect on mortality rate trends revealed a steep decreasing slope for birth cohorts born from 1908-1940 and a subsequent sudden increase after 1945. The mortality rate projections indicated increasing trends from 40 to 74 years of age until the year 2031. The age effect increased from 25-29 years of age. This could be attributable to the high human papilloma virus (HPV) infection risk and the low cervical cancer screening rate. The cohort effect changed from decreasing to increasing after the early 1940s. This might be attributable to the spread of cervical cancer screening and treatment before 1940 and the high HPV infection risk and reduced cervical cancer screening rate after 1945. The projected mortality rate indicated an increasing trend until the year 2031.

On the Importance of Age-Adjustment Methods in Ecological Studies of Social Determinants of Mortality

PubMed Central

Milyo, Jeffrey; Mellor, Jennifer M

2003-01-01

Objective To illustrate the potential sensitivity of ecological associations between mortality and certain socioeconomic factors to different methods of age-adjustment. Data Sources Secondary analysis employing state-level data from several publicly available sources. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates for 1990 are obtained from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. The Gini coefficient for family income and percent of persons below the federal poverty line are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Putnam's (2000) Social Capital Index was downloaded from ; the Social Mistrust Index was calculated from responses to the General Social Survey, following the method described in Kawachi et al. (1997). All other covariates are obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Study Design We use least squares regression to estimate the effect of several state-level socioeconomic factors on mortality rates. We examine whether these statistical associations are sensitive to the use of alternative methods of accounting for the different age composition of state populations. Following several previous studies, we present results for the case when only mortality rates are age-adjusted. We contrast these results with those obtained from regressions of crude mortality on age variables. Principal Findings Different age-adjustment methods can cause a change in the sign or statistical significance of the association between mortality and various socioeconomic factors. When age variables are included as regressors, we find no significant association between mortality and either income inequality, minority racial concentration, or social capital. Conclusions Ecological associations between certain socioeconomic factors and mortality may be extremely sensitive to different age-adjustment methods. PMID:14727797

Classification of maltreatment-related mortality by Child Death Review teams: How reliable are they?

PubMed

Parrish, Jared W; Schnitzer, Patricia G; Lanier, Paul; Shanahan, Meghan E; Daniels, Julie L; Marshall, Stephen W

2017-05-01

Accurate estimation of the incidence of maltreatment-related child mortality depends on reliable child fatality review. We examined the inter-rater reliability of maltreatment designation for two Alaskan Child Death Review (CDR) panels. Two different multidisciplinary CDR panels each reviewed a series of 101 infant and child deaths (ages 0-4 years) in Alaska. Both panels independently reviewed identical medical, autopsy, law enforcement, child welfare, and administrative records for each death utilizing the same maltreatment criteria. Percent agreement for maltreatment was 64.7% with a weighted Kappa of 0.61 (95% CI 0.51, 0.70). Across maltreatment subtypes, agreement was highest for abuse (69.3%) and lowest for negligence (60.4%). Discordance was higher if the mother was unmarried or a smoker, if residence was rural, or if there was a family history of child protective services report(s). Incidence estimates did not depend on which panel's data were used. There is substantial room for improvement in the reliability of CDR panel assessment of maltreatment related mortality. Standardized decision guidance for CDR panels may improve the reliability of their data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Surgical treatment of a 5 month pregnancy in the rudimentary uterine cornu].

PubMed

Bosković, V; Vrzić-Petronijević, S; Petronijević, M; Berisavac, M; Likić-Ladjević, I

2006-01-01

Cornual ectopic pregnacy is rare clinical entity with high maternal mortality. In all cases surgical treatment is indicated, and taking care of most important complication--haemorrhagic shock. Therapeutic approach is individual and depending of simptomatplogy, gestational age of pregnancy and condition of the patient in time of diagnosis. Authors are presenting the case of cornual ectopic pregnancy of five months.

Survival advantage in black versus white men with CKD: effect of estimated GFR and case mix.

PubMed

Kovesdy, Csaba P; Quarles, L Darryl; Lott, Evan H; Lu, Jun Ling; Ma, Jennie Z; Molnar, Miklos Z; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar

2013-08-01

Black dialysis patients have significantly lower mortality compared with white patients, in contradistinction to the higher mortality seen in blacks in the general population. It is unclear whether a similar paradox exists in patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (CKD), and if it does, what its underlying reasons are. Historical cohort. 518,406 white and 52,402 black male US veterans with non-dialysis-dependent CKD stages 3-5. Black race. We examined overall and CKD stage-specific all-cause mortality using parametric survival models. The effect of sociodemographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, and laboratory characteristics on the observed differences was explored in multivariable models. During a median follow-up of 4.7 years, 172,093 patients died (mortality rate, 71.0 [95% CI, 70.6-71.3] per 1,000 patient-years). Black race was associated with significantly lower crude mortality (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94-0.97; P < 0.001). The survival advantage was attenuated after adjustment for age (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.12-1.16), but was magnified after full multivariable adjustment (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.70-0.73; P < 0.001). The unadjusted survival advantage of blacks was more prominent in those with more advanced stages of CKD, but CKD stage-specific differences were attenuated by multivariable adjustment. Exclusively male patients. Black patients with CKD have lower mortality compared with white patients. The survival advantage seen in blacks is accentuated in patients with more advanced stages of CKD, which may be explained by changes in case-mix and laboratory characteristics occurring during the course of kidney disease. Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.

Survival Advantage in Black Versus White Men With CKD: Effect of Estimated GFR and Case Mix

PubMed Central

Kovesdy, Csaba P.; Quarles, L. Darryl; Lott, Evan H.; Lu, Jun Ling; Ma, Jennie Z.; Molnar, Miklos Z.; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar

2013-01-01

Background Black dialysis patients have significantly lower mortality compared to white patients, in contradistinction to the higher mortality seen in blacks in the general population. It is unclear if a similar paradox exists in non–dialysis-dependent CKD, and if it does, what its underlying reasons are. Study Design Historical cohort. Setting & Participants 518,406 white and 52,402 black male US veterans with non-dialysis dependent CKD stages 3–5. Predictor Black race. Outcomes & Measurements We examined overall and CKD stage-specific all-cause mortality using parametric survival models. The effect of sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities and laboratory characteristics on the observed differences was explored in multivariable models. Results Over a median follow-up of 4.7 years 172,093 patients died (mortality rate, 71.0 [95% CI, 70.6–71.3] per 1000 patient-years). Black race was associated with significantly lower crude mortality (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94–0.97; p<0.001). The survival advantage was attenuated after adjustment for age (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.12–1.16), but was even magnified after full multivariable adjustment (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.70–0.73; p<0.001). The unadjusted survival advantage of blacks was more prominent in those with more advanced stages of CKD, but CKD stage-specific differences were attenuated by multivariable adjustment. Limitations Exclusively male patients. Conclusions Black patients with CKD have lower mortality compared to white patients. The survival advantage seen in blacks is accentuated in patients with more advanced stages of CKD, which may be explained by changes in case mix and laboratory characteristics occurring during the course of kidney disease. PMID:23369826

Perinatal mortality in second- vs firstborn twins: a matter of birth size or birth order?

PubMed

Luo, Zhong-Cheng; Ouyang, Fengxiu; Zhang, Jun; Klebanoff, Mark

2014-08-01

Second-born twins on average weigh less than first-born twins and have been reported at an elevated risk of perinatal mortality. Whether the risk differences depend on their relative birth size is unknown. The present study aimed to evaluate the association of birth order with perinatal mortality by birth order-specific weight difference in twin pregnancies. In a retrospective cohort study of 258,800 twin pregnancies without reported congenital anomalies using the US matched multiple birth data 1995-2000 (the available largest multiple birth dataset), conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of perinatal death adjusted for fetus-specific characteristics (sex, presentation, and birthweight for gestational age). Comparing second vs first twins, the risks of perinatal death were similar if they had similar birthweights (within 5%) and were increasingly higher if second twins weighed progressively less (adjusted ORs were 1.37, 1.90, and 3.94 if weighed 5.0-14.9%, 15.0-24.9%, and ≥25.0% less, respectively), and progressively lower if they weighed increasingly more (adjusted ORs were 0.67, 0.63, and 0.36 if weighed 5.0-14.9%, 15.0-24.9%, and ≥25.0% more, respectively) (all P < .001). The perinatal mortality rates were not significantly different in cesarean deliveries or preterm (<37 weeks) vaginal deliveries but were significantly higher in second twins in term vaginal deliveries (3.1 vs 1.8 per 1000; adjusted OR, 2.15; P < .001). Perinatal mortality risk differences in second vs first twins depend on their relative birth size. Vaginal delivery at term is associated with a substantially greater risk of perinatal mortality in second twins. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Inequality in mortality by occupation related to economic crisis from 1980 to 2010 among working-age Japanese males.

PubMed

Wada, Koji; Gilmour, Stuart

2016-03-03

The mortality rate for Japanese males aged 30-59 years in managerial and professional spiked in 2000 and remains worse than that of other occupations possibly associated with the economic downturn of the 1990s and the global economic stagnation after 2008. The present study aimed to assess temporal occupation-specific mortality trends from 1980 to 2010 for Japanese males aged 30-59 years for major causes of death. We obtained data from the Occupation-specific Vital Statistics. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates for the four leading causes of death (all cancers, suicide, ischaemic heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease). We used a generalized estimating equation model to determine specific effects of the economic downturn after 2000. The age-standardized mortality rate for the total working-age population steadily declined up to 2010 in all major causes of death except suicide. Managers had a higher risk of mortality in all leading causes of death compared with before 1995. Mortality rates among unemployed people steadily decreased for all cancers and ischaemic heart disease. Economic downturn may have caused the prolonged increase in suicide mortality. Unemployed people did not experience any change in mortality due to suicide and cerebrovascular disease and saw a decline in cancer and ischemic heart disease mortality, perhaps because the basic properties of Japan's social welfare system were maintained even during economic recession.

Mortality associated with influenza in tropics, state of são paulo, Brazil, from 2002 to 2011: the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods.

PubMed

Freitas, André Ricardo Ribas; Francisco, Priscila M S Bergamo; Donalisio, Maria Rita

2013-01-01

The impact of the seasonal influenza and 2009 AH1N1 pandemic influenza on mortality is not yet completely understood, particularly in tropical and subtropical countries. The trends of influenza related mortality rate in different age groups and different outcomes on a area in tropical and subtropical climate with more than 41 million people (State of São Paulo, Brazil), were studied from 2002 to 2011 were studied. Serfling-type regression analysis was performed using weekly mortality registries and virological data obtained from sentinel surveillance. The prepandemic years presented a well-defined seasonality during winter and a clear relationship between activity of AH3N2 and increase of mortality in all ages, especially in individuals older than 60 years. The mortality due to pneumonia and influenza and respiratory causes associated with 2009 pandemic influenza in the age groups 0-4 years and older than 60 was lower than the previous years. Among people aged 5-19 and 20-59 years the mortality was 2.6 and 4.4 times higher than that in previous periods, respectively. The mortality in all ages was higher than the average of the previous years but was equal mortality in epidemics of AH3N2. The 2009 pandemic influenza mortality showed significant differences compared to other years, especially considering the age groups most affected.

Pancreatic cancer mortality in Serbia from 1991-2010 – a joinpoint analysis

PubMed Central

Ilić, Milena; Vlajinac, Hristina; Marinković, Jelena; Kocev, Nikola

2013-01-01

Aim To analyze the trends of pancreatic cancer mortality in Serbia. Methods The study covered the population of Serbia in the period 1991 to 2010. Mortality trends were assessed by the joinpoint regression analysis by age and sex. Results Age-standardized mortality rates ranged from 5.93 to 8.57 per 100 000 in men and from 3.51 to 5.79 per 100 000 in women. Pancreatic cancer mortality in all age groups was higher among men than among women. It was continuously increasing since 1991 by 1.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1 to 2.0) yearly in men and by 2.2% (95% CI 1.7 to 2.7) yearly in women. Changes in mortality were not significant in younger age groups for both sexes. In older men (≥55 years), mortality was increasing, although in age groups 70-74 and 80-84 the increase was not significant. In 65-69 years old men, the increase in mortality was significant only in the period 2004 to 2010. In ≥50 years old women, mortality significantly increased from 1991 onward. In 75-79 years old women, a non-significant decrease in the period 1991 to 2000 was followed by a significant increase from 2000 to 2010. Conclusion Serbia is one of the countries with the highest pancreatic cancer mortality in the world, with increasing mortality trend in both sexes and in most age groups. PMID:23986278

When to Start Antiretroviral Therapy in Children Aged 2–5 Years: A Collaborative Causal Modelling Analysis of Cohort Studies from Southern Africa

PubMed Central

Schomaker, Michael; Egger, Matthias; Ndirangu, James; Phiri, Sam; Moultrie, Harry; Technau, Karl; Cox, Vivian; Giddy, Janet; Chimbetete, Cleophas; Wood, Robin; Gsponer, Thomas; Bolton Moore, Carolyn; Rabie, Helena; Eley, Brian; Muhe, Lulu; Penazzato, Martina; Essajee, Shaffiq; Keiser, Olivia; Davies, Mary-Ann

2013-01-01

Background There is limited evidence on the optimal timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in children 2–5 y of age. We conducted a causal modelling analysis using the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS–Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaborative dataset to determine the difference in mortality when starting ART in children aged 2–5 y immediately (irrespective of CD4 criteria), as recommended in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 guidelines, compared to deferring to lower CD4 thresholds, for example, the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm3 or CD4 percentage (CD4%) <25%. Methods and Findings ART-naïve children enrolling in HIV care at IeDEA-SA sites who were between 24 and 59 mo of age at first visit and with ≥1 visit prior to ART initiation and ≥1 follow-up visit were included. We estimated mortality for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds for up to 3 y using g-computation, adjusting for measured time-dependent confounding of CD4 percent, CD4 count, and weight-for-age z-score. Confidence intervals were constructed using bootstrapping. The median (first; third quartile) age at first visit of 2,934 children (51% male) included in the analysis was 3.3 y (2.6; 4.1), with a median (first; third quartile) CD4 count of 592 cells/mm3 (356; 895) and median (first; third quartile) CD4% of 16% (10%; 23%). The estimated cumulative mortality after 3 y for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds ranged from 3.4% (95% CI: 2.1–6.5) (no ART) to 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%–3.5%) (ART irrespective of CD4 value). Estimated mortality was overall higher when initiating ART at lower CD4 values or not at all. There was no mortality difference between starting ART immediately, irrespective of CD4 value, and ART initiation at the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm3 or CD4% <25%, with mortality estimates of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%–3.5%) and 2.2% (95% CI: 1.4%–3.5%) after 3 y, respectively. The analysis was limited by loss to follow-up and the unavailability of WHO staging data. Conclusions The results indicate no mortality difference for up to 3 y between ART initiation irrespective of CD4 value and ART initiation at a threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm3 or CD4% <25%, but there are overall higher point estimates for mortality when ART is initiated at lower CD4 values. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24260029

[Influence of functional dependence on the case mix in a geriatric unit].

PubMed

González-Guerrero, José Luis; Alonso-Fernández, Teresa; Gálvez, Noemí; García-Mayolín, Nieves

2008-01-01

To determine the influence of pre-admission functional status on the case mix in a geriatric unit, after adjustment by the diagnosis-related groups (DRG) patient classification system. We performed a retrospective observational study in patients admitted to the geriatric unit of a general hospital over a 2-year period. Patients with a length of stay of less than 2 days and transfers from other medical services and hospitals were excluded. The following data were obtained from the minimum data set and from chart review: age, sex, place of residence before admission, Charlson comorbidity index, pre-admission functional status and mobility, cognitive status, length of hospital stay, rate of in-hospital mortality, and the DRG (and DRG weight) for each patient. A total of 1065 patients were included in this study. The mean age was 84 years (64-102), and 64% were women. Patients with lower functional status were more often female (67.1 vs 55.8%; P< .01), more frequently admitted from nursing homes (35.8 vs 14.7%; P< .01) and had higher mortality (19.3 vs 10.1%; P< .01). These patients also had a higher mean length of stay (12.7 vs 11.9), higher comorbidity scores (P< .01), greater cognitive impairment (P< .01) and higher DRG weight (P=.03). Once the more frequent DRG were reviewed, patients who were dependent had a greater number of respiratory infections and renal problems and had fewer cerebrovascular diseases. Some clinical characteristics differ in patients with functional dependence. This finding could influence the clinical management of medical services that treat more dependent patients.

Reported Nonadherence to Immunosuppressive Medication in Young Adults After Heart Transplantation: A Retrospective Analysis of a National Registry.

PubMed

Tumin, Dmitry; McConnell, Patrick I; Galantowicz, Mark; Tobias, Joseph D; Hayes, Don

2017-02-01

Young adult heart transplantation (HTx) recipients experience high mortality risk attributed to increased nonadherence to immunosuppressive medication in this age window. This study sought to test whether a high-risk age window in HTx recipients persisted in the absence of reported nonadherence. Heart transplantation recipients aged 2 to 40 years, transplanted between October 1999 and January 2007, were identified in the United Network for Organ Sharing database. Multivariable survival analysis was used to estimate influences of age at transplantation and attained posttransplant age on mortality hazard among patients stratified by center report of nonadherence to immunosuppression that compromised recovery. Three thousand eighty-one HTx recipients were included, with univariate analysis demonstrating peak hazards of mortality and reported nonadherence among 567 patients transplanted between ages 17 and 24 years. Multivariable analysis adjusting for reported nonadherence demonstrated lower mortality among patients transplanted at younger (hazards ratio, 0.813; 95% confidence interval, 0.663-0.997; P = 0.047) or older (hazards ratio, 0.835; 95% confidence interval, 0.701-0.994; P = 0.042) ages. Peak mortality hazard at ages 17 to 24 years was confirmed in the subgroup of patients with no nonadherence reported during follow-up. This result was replicated using attained age after HTx as the time metric, with younger and older ages predicting improved survival in the absence of reported nonadherence. Late adolescence and young adulthood coincide with greater mortality hazard and greater chances of nonadherence to immunosuppressive medication after HTx, but the elevation of mortality hazard in this age range persists in the absence of reported nonadherence. Other causes of the high-risk age window for post-HTx mortality should be demonstrated to identify opportunities for intervention.

Inequality in prime-age adult deaths in a high AIDS mortality setting: does the measure of economic status matter?

PubMed

Opuni, Marjorie; Peterman, Amber; Bishai, David

2011-11-01

We analyze deaths among prime-aged men and women during a 13-year period in a high AIDS mortality setting and examine the distribution of deaths by the economic status of these individuals at baseline using the 1991-2004 Kagera Health and Development Survey (KHDS). We investigate whether the distribution of subsequent prime-age adult deaths as measured by concentration indices depends on the measure of living standards used. We compare the performance of three measures: (1) per capita expenditure; (2) a modern wealth asset index replicating the asset index included in the 2004 Tanzanian AIDS Indicator Survey data file; and (3) a traditional wealth asset index, which includes only measures of traditional wealth. We find no evidence that economic status is linked to prime-age adult deaths, for both men and women, regardless of the measure of economic status used. This finding suggests both that more generally the measure of economic status used does not appear to be crucial, and specifically that relationships using traditional measures of wealth do not seem to differ from those using conventional measures. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators for Primary Prevention of Mortality in Patients With Nonischemic Cardiomyopathy: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

PubMed

Stavrakis, Stavros; Asad, Zain; Reynolds, Dwight

2017-06-01

Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) improve survival in patients with heart failure due to ischemic cardiomyopathy, but their benefit in nonischemic cardiomyopathy (NICM) has been recently questioned. We performed a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials to examine the effect of ICDs on total mortality and arrhythmic death in patients with NICM. We also examined the impact of age and cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) on the relative effect of ICD compared to control. We searched the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for randomized trials evaluating the effect of ICD versus control in patients with NICM. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using a random effects model. Six trials involving 2,967 patients were included (ICD, n = 1,553; control, n = 1,414). Based on the pooled estimate across the six studies, the use of ICD was associated with a significant reduction in total mortality (HR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.66-0.92; P = 0.003), as well as arrhythmic death (HR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.29-0.71; P = 0.0005) compared to control. ICD decreased total mortality in younger patients compared to control (HR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.46-0.86; P = 0.004), but not in older patients (HR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.56-1.68; P = 0.92). In patients with CRT, ICD reduced total mortality compared to control (HR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.65-0.95; P = 0.02), but not in patients with CRT (HR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.40-1.26). ICDs decrease total mortality and arrhythmic deaths in patients with NICM. The benefit of ICD appears to be dependent on age and concomitant use of CRT. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Structured settlement annuities, part 2: mortality experience 1967--95 and the estimation of life expectancy in the presence of excess mortality.

PubMed

Singer, R B; Schmidt, C J

2000-01-01

the mortality experience for structured settlement (SS) annuitants issued both standard (Std) and substandard (SStd) has been reported twice previously by the Society of Actuaries (SOA), but the 1995 mortality described here has not previously been published. We describe in detail the 1995 SS mortality, and we also discuss the methodology of calculating life expectancy (e), contrasting three different life-table models. With SOA permission, we present in four tables the unpublished results of its 1995 SS mortality experience by Std and SStd issue, sex, and a combination of 8 age and 6 duration groups. Overall results on mortality expected from the 1983a Individual Annuity Table showed a mortality ratio (MR) of about 140% for Std cases and about 650% for all SStd cases. Life expectancy in a group with excess mortality may be computed by either adding the decimal excess death rate (EDR) to q' for each year of attained age to age 109 or multiplying q' by the decimal MR for each year to age 109. An example is given for men age 60 with localized prostate cancer; annual EDRs from a large published cancer study are used at duration 0-24 years, and the last EDR is assumed constant to age 109. This value of e is compared with e from constant initial values of EDR or MR after the first year. Interrelations of age, sex, e, and EDR and MR are discussed and illustrated with tabular data. It is shown that a constant MR for life-table calculation of e consistently overestimates projected annual mortality at older attained ages and underestimates e. The EDR method, approved for reserve calculations, is also recommended for use in underwriting conversion tables.

Effects of fish age and parasite dose on the development of whirling disease in rainbow trout.

PubMed

Ryce, Eileen K N; Zale, Alexander V; MacConnell, Elizabeth

2004-06-11

We determined the ages at which juvenile rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss became resistant to the effects of whirling disease following exposure to a range of parasite doses. Heretofore, the development and severity of whirling disease in salmonids was known to be generally dependent on the age or size of fish when first exposed to the triactinomyxon spores of Myxobolus cerebralis; larger, older individuals tended to be less diseased. However, no systematic determination had been made of the exact age at which fish become resistant to the development of the disease. We exposed rainbow trout at 9 ages (1 to 17 wk post-hatch) to 4 parasite dose levels (0, 100, 1000 and 10,000 triactinomyxons per fish). Disease severity was measured using mortality, clinical signs, microscopic pathology, and myxospore counts. Disease and mortality were substantially reduced when exposure to the parasite occurred for the first time at 9 wk post-hatch (756 degree-days at 12 degrees C) or older. High doses elicited more disease among the younger age groups, but the effect was dampened in groups exposed at about 9 to 11 wk post-hatch and absent thereafter. Rainbow trout reared in M. cerebralis-free waters for 9 wk post-hatch or longer, whether in the wild or in a hatchery situation, should experience greater survival and less disease than fish first exposed to the parasite at younger ages.

A Multi-stage Carcinogenesis Model to Investigate Caloric Restriction as a Potential Tool for Post-irradiation Mitigation of Cancer Risk

PubMed Central

Tani, Shusuke; Blyth, Benjamin John; Shang, Yi; Morioka, Takamitsu; Kakinuma, Shizuko; Shimada, Yoshiya

2016-01-01

The risk of radiation-induced cancer adds to anxiety in low-dose exposed populations. Safe and effective lifestyle changes which can help mitigate excess cancer risk might provide exposed individuals the opportunity to pro-actively reduce their cancer risk, and improve mental health and well-being. Here, we applied a mathematical multi-stage carcinogenesis model to the mouse lifespan data using adult-onset caloric restriction following irradiation in early life. We re-evaluated autopsy records with a veterinary pathologist to determine which tumors were the probable causes of death in order to calculate age-specific mortality. The model revealed that in both irradiated and unirradiated mice, caloric restriction reduced the age-specific mortality of all solid tumors and hepatocellular carcinomas across most of the lifespan, with the mortality rate dependent more on age owing to an increase in the number of predicted rate-limiting steps. Conversely, irradiation did not significantly alter the number of steps, but did increase the overall transition rate between the steps. We show that the extent of the protective effect of caloric restriction is independent of the induction of cancer from radiation exposure, and discuss future avenues of research to explore the utility of caloric restriction as an example of a potential post-irradiation mitigation strategy. PMID:27390741

Use of serologic tests to predict resistance to Canine distemper virus-induced disease in vaccinated dogs.

PubMed

Jensen, Wayne A; Totten, Janet S; Lappin, Michael R; Schultz, Ronald D

2015-09-01

The objective of the current study was to determine whether detection of Canine distemper virus (CDV)-specific serum antibodies correlates with resistance to challenge with virulent virus. Virus neutralization (VN) assay results were compared with resistance to viral challenge in 2 unvaccinated Beagle puppies, 9 unvaccinated Beagle dogs (4.4-7.2 years of age), and 9 vaccinated Beagle dogs (3.7-4.7 years of age). Eight of 9 (89%) unvaccinated adult dogs exhibited clinical signs after virus challenge, and 1 (13%) dog died. As compared to adult dogs, the 2 unvaccinated puppies developed more severe clinical signs and either died or were euthanized after challenge. In contrast, no clinical signs were detected after challenge of the 9 adult vaccinated dogs with post-vaccination intervals of up to 4.4 years. In vaccinated dogs, the positive and negative predictive values of VN assay results for resistance to challenge were 100% and 0%, respectively. Results indicate that dogs vaccinated with modified live CDV can be protected from challenge for ≤4.4 years postvaccination and that detection of virus-specific antibodies is predictive of whether dogs are resistant to challenge with virulent virus. Results also indicate that CDV infection in unvaccinated dogs results in age-dependent morbidity and mortality. Knowledge of age-dependent morbidity and mortality, duration of vaccine-induced immunity, and the positive and negative predictive values of detection of virus-specific serum antibodies are useful in development of rational booster vaccination intervals for the prevention of CDV-mediated disease in adult dogs. © 2015 The Author(s).

Declining survival of lake trout stocked during 1963-1986 in U.S. waters of Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Ebener, Mark P.; Schorfhaar, Richard G.; Schram, Stephen T.; Schreiner, Donald R.; Selgeby, James H.

1994-01-01

The average catch per effort (CPE) values for the 1963–1982 year-classes of stocked lake trout Salvelinus namaycush caught at age 7 in gill nets and for the 1976–1986 year-classes caught at ages 2–4 in trawls declined significantly in U.S. waters of Lake Superior. The declines in CPE were not explained by reduced stocking, but rather by significant declines in survival indices of the year-classes of stocked lake trout. Increases in mortality occurred in year-classes before the fish reached ages 2–4, before they were recruited into the sport and commercial fisheries, and before they reached sizes vulnerable to sea lamprey predation. We conclude that declining abundance of stocked lake trout resulted from increased mortality, which may have been caused by competition, predation, or by a combination of these and other factors. Restoration of lake trout in Lake Superior may now depend on prudent management of naturally reproducing stocks rather than on stocking of hatchery-reared fish.

Mortality from ischaemic heart disease by country, region, and age: statistics from World Health Organisation and United Nations.

PubMed

Finegold, Judith A; Asaria, Perviz; Francis, Darrel P

2013-09-30

Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. The World Health Organisation (WHO) collects mortality data coded using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases (ICD) code. We analysed IHD deaths world-wide between 1995 and 2009 and used the UN population database to calculate age-specific and directly and indirectly age-standardised IHD mortality rates by country and region. IHD is the single largest cause of death worldwide, causing 7,249,000 deaths in 2008, 12.7% of total global mortality. There is more than 20-fold variation in IHD mortality rates between countries. Highest IHD mortality rates are in Eastern Europe and Central Asian countries; lowest rates in high income countries. For the working-age population, IHD mortality rates are markedly higher in low-and-middle income countries than in high income countries. Over the last 25 years, age-standardised IHD mortality has fallen by more than half in high income countries, but the trend is flat or increasing in some low-and-middle income countries. Low-and-middle income countries now account for more than 80% of global IHD deaths. The global burden of IHD deaths has shifted to low-and-middle income countries as lifestyles approach those of high income countries. In high income countries, population ageing maintains IHD as the leading cause of death. Nevertheless, the progressive decline in age-standardised IHD mortality in high income countries shows that increasing IHD mortality is not inevitable. The 20-fold mortality difference between countries, and the temporal trends, may hold vital clues for handling IHD epidemic which is migratory, and still burgeoning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reexamining the effects of gestational age, fetal growth, and maternal smoking on neonatal mortality

PubMed Central

Ananth, Cande V; Platt, Robert W

2004-01-01

Background Low birth weight (<2,500 g) is a strong predictor of infant mortality. Yet low birth weight, in isolation, is uninformative since it is comprised of two intertwined components: preterm delivery and reduced fetal growth. Through nonparametric logistic regression models, we examine the effects of gestational age, fetal growth, and maternal smoking on neonatal mortality. Methods We derived data on over 10 million singleton live births delivered at ≥ 24 weeks from the 1998–2000 U.S. natality data files. Nonparametric multivariable logistic regression based on generalized additive models was used to examine neonatal mortality (deaths within the first 28 days) in relation to fetal growth (gestational age-specific standardized birth weight), gestational age, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. All analyses were further adjusted for the confounding effects due to maternal age and gravidity. Results The relationship between standardized birth weight and neonatal mortality is nonlinear; mortality is high at low z-score birth weights, drops precipitously with increasing z-score birth weight, and begins to flatten for heavier infants. Gestational age is also strongly associated with mortality, with patterns similar to those of z-score birth weight. Although the direct effect of smoking on neonatal mortality is weak, its effects (on mortality) appear to be largely mediated through reduced fetal growth and, to a lesser extent, through shortened gestation. In fact, the association between smoking and reduced fetal growth gets stronger as pregnancies approach term. Conclusions Our study provides important insights regarding the combined effects of fetal growth, gestational age, and smoking on neonatal mortality. The findings suggest that the effect of maternal smoking on neonatal mortality is largely mediated through reduced fetal growth. PMID:15574192

[Dynamics and spatial differentiation of premature mortality in the productive age group of the population--premise for in depth studies of causes and conditions of this phenomenon].

PubMed

Andryszek, C; Indulski, J A; Worach-Kardas, H

1996-01-01

The increased mortality in Poland compared to that observed just after the war was mainly caused by the elevated frequency of premature deaths (under 65 years of age). The aim of the work was to assess: the premature mortality in the population of the productive age in Poland in comparison with other countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Scandinavian and Western European countries as well as with other developed countries in the world; the dynamics of premature mortality; the spatial differentiation of premature mortality in our country. Two age phases: I = 20 - 44 years, and II = 45 - 64 years were identified in premature mortality. A considerable increase in male premature mortality in phase II of the productive age which began in the second half of the sixties and had continued until 1991 doubled the mortality ratio in Poland when compared with the average ratio observed in all Scandinavian and Western European countries. The analysis of spatial differentiation of premature mortality indicates clearly the relationship between mortality and environmental conditions: the highest ratios are noted in highly urbanized and industrialized voivodships (provinces). It accounts for possible reasons of shortened by 7-8 years period of men's life in Poland as compared to Western countries or even by 10 year in comparison with Japan, for example. The situation among women is more favorable. These alarming data on premature mortality, especially among men in phase II of the productive age emphasize the urgent need for in-depth studies of causes, circumstances and factors contributing to deaths at the most active productive age.

Quantitative relations between fishing mortality, spawning stress mortality and biomass growth rate (computed with numerical model FISHMO)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Laevastu, T.

1983-01-01

The effects of fishing on a given species biomass have been quantitatively evaluated. A constant recruitment is assumed in this study, but the evaluation can be computed on any known age distribution of exploitable biomass. Fishing mortality is assumed to be constant with age; however, spawning stress mortality increases with age. When fishing (mortality) increases, the spawning stress mortality decreases relative to total and exploitable biomasses. These changes are quantitatively shown for two species from the Bering Sea - walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, and yellowfin sole, Limanda aspera.

Synergistic effect of age and body mass index on mortality and morbidity in general surgery.

PubMed

Yanquez, Federico J; Clements, John M; Grauf, Dawn; Merchant, Aziz M

2013-09-01

The elderly population (aged 65 y and older) is expected to be the dominant age group in the United States by 2030. In addition, the prevalence of obesity in the United States is growing exponentially. Obese elderly patients are increasingly undergoing elective or emergent general surgery. There are few, if any, studies highlighting the combined effect of age and body mass index (BMI) on surgical outcomes. We hypothesize that increasing age and BMI synergistically impact morbidity and mortality in general surgery. We collected individual-level, de-identified patient data from the Michigan Surgical Quality Collaborative. Subjects underwent general surgery with general anesthetic, were >18 y, and had a BMI between 19 and 60. Primary and secondary outcomes were 30-d "Any morbidity" and mortality (from wound, respiratory, genitourinary, central nervous system, and cardiac systems), respectively. Preoperative risk variables included diabetes, dialysis, steroid use, cardiac risk, wound classification, American Society of Anesthesiology class, emergent cases, and 13 other variables. We conducted binary logistic regression models for 30-d morbidity and mortality to determine independent effects of age, BMI, interaction between both age and BMI, and a saturated model for all independent variables. We identified 149,853 patients. The average age was 54.6 y, and the average BMI was 30.9. Overall 30-d mortality was 2%, and morbidity was 6.7%. Age was a positive predictor for mortality and morbidity, and BMI was negatively associated with mortality and not significantly associated with morbidity. Age combined with higher BMI was positively associated with morbidity and mortality when the higher age groups were analyzed. Saturated models revealed age and American Society of Anesthesiology class as highest predictors of poor outcomes. Although BMI itself was not a major independent factor predicting 30-d major morbidity or mortality, the morbidly obese, elderly (>50 and 70 y, respectively) subgroup may have an increased morbidity and mortality after general surgery. This information, along with patient-specific factors and their comorbidities, may allow us to better take care of our patients perioperatively and better inform our patients about their risk of surgical procedures. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Age-Specific Malaria Mortality Rates in the KEMRI/CDC Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Western Kenya, 2003–2010

PubMed Central

Desai, Meghna; Buff, Ann M.; Khagayi, Sammy; Byass, Peter; Amek, Nyaguara; van Eijk, Annemieke; Slutsker, Laurence; Vulule, John; Odhiambo, Frank O.; Phillips-Howard, Penelope A.; Lindblade, Kimberly A.; Laserson, Kayla F.; Hamel, Mary J.

2014-01-01

Recent global malaria burden modeling efforts have produced significantly different estimates, particularly in adult malaria mortality. To measure malaria control progress, accurate malaria burden estimates across age groups are necessary. We determined age-specific malaria mortality rates in western Kenya to compare with recent global estimates. We collected data from 148,000 persons in a health and demographic surveillance system from 2003–2010. Standardized verbal autopsies were conducted for all deaths; probable cause of death was assigned using the InterVA-4 model. Annual malaria mortality rates per 1,000 person-years were generated by age group. Trends were analyzed using Poisson regression. From 2003–2010, in children <5 years the malaria mortality rate decreased from 13.2 to 3.7 per 1,000 person-years; the declines were greatest in the first three years of life. In children 5–14 years, the malaria mortality rate remained stable at 0.5 per 1,000 person-years. In persons ≥15 years, the malaria mortality rate decreased from 1.5 to 0.4 per 1,000 person-years. The malaria mortality rates in young children and persons aged ≥15 years decreased dramatically from 2003–2010 in western Kenya, but rates in older children have not declined. Sharp declines in some age groups likely reflect the national scale up of malaria control interventions and rapid expansion of HIV prevention services. These data highlight the importance of age-specific malaria mortality ascertainment and support current strategies to include all age groups in malaria control interventions. PMID:25180495

Effect of conjugal bereavement on mortality of the bereaved spouse in participants of the Renfrew/Paisley Study

PubMed Central

Hart, Carole L; Hole, David J; Lawlor, Debbie A; Smith, George Davey; Lever, Tony F

2007-01-01

Objectives To investigate how loss of a spouse affects mortality risk in the bereaved partner. Design and setting Prospective cohort study in Renfrew and Paisley in Scotland. Participants 4395 married couples aged 45–64 years when the study was carried out between 1972 and 1976. Methods The date of bereavement for the bereaved spouse was the date of death of his or her spouse. Bereavement could occur at any time during the follow‐up period, so it was considered as a time‐dependent exposure variable and the Cox proportional hazards model for time‐dependent variables was used. The relative rate (RR) of mortality was calculated for bereaved versus non‐bereaved spouses and adjusted for confounding variables. Main outcome measures Causes of death to 31 March 2004. Results Bereaved participants were at higher risk than non‐bereaved participants of dying from any cause (RR 1.27; 95% CI 1.2 to 1.35). These risks remained but were attenuated after adjustment for confounding variables. There were raised RRs for bereaved participants dying of cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, all cancer, lung cancer, smoking‐related cancer, and accidents or violence. After adjustment for confounding variables, RRs remained higher for bereaved participants for all these causes except for mortality from lung cancer. There was no strong statistical evidence that the increased risks of death associated with bereavement changed with time after bereavement. Conclusions Conjugal bereavement, in addition to existing risk factors, is related to mortality risk for major causes of death. PMID:17435215

Mortality of Geriatric and Younger Patients with Schizophrenia in the Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ran, Mao-Sheng; Chan, Cecilia Lai-Wan; Chen, Eric Yu-Hai; Tang, Cui-Ping; Lin, Fu-Rong; Li, Li; Li, Si-Gan; Mao, Wen-Jun; Hu, Shi-Hui; Schwab, Gerhard; Conwell, Yeates

2008-01-01

Little is known about the differences in mortality among non-institutionalized geriatric and younger patients with schizophrenia. In this study long-term mortality and suicidal behavior of all the geriatric (age greater than or equal to 65 years), middle-age (age 41-64 years), and young (age 15-40 years) subjects with schizophrenia living in a…

Decisional strategy determines whether frame influences treatment preferences for medical decisions.

PubMed

Woodhead, Erin L; Lynch, Elizabeth B; Edelstein, Barry A

2011-06-01

Decision makers are influenced by the frame of information such that preferences vary depending on whether survival or mortality data are presented. Research is inconsistent as to whether and how age impacts framing effects. This paper presents two studies that used qualitative analyses of think-aloud protocols to understand how the type of information used in the decision making process varies by frame and age. In Study 1, 40 older adults, age 65 to 89, and 40 younger adults, age 18 to 24, responded to a hypothetical lung cancer scenario in a within-subject design. Participants received both a survival and mortality frame. Qualitative analyses revealed that two main decisional strategies were used by all participants: one strategy reflected a data-driven decisional process, whereas the other reflected an experience-driven process. Age predicted decisional strategy, with older adults less likely to use a data-driven strategy. Frame interacted with strategy to predict treatment choice; only those using a data-driven strategy demonstrated framing effects. In Study 2, 61 older adults, age 65 to 98, and 63 younger adults, age 18 to 30, responded to the same scenarios as in Study 1 in a between-subject design. The results of Study 1 were replicated, with age significantly predicting decisional strategy and frame interacting with strategy to predict treatment choice. Findings suggest that framing effects may be more related to decisional strategy than to age. (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

Trends in educational differentials in suicide mortality between 1993-2006 in Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Weon Young; Khang, Young-Ho; Noh, Manegseok; Ryu, Jae-In; Son, Mia; Hong, Yeon-Pyo

2009-08-31

This study aims to examine how inequalities in suicide by education changed during and after macroeconomic restructuring following the economic crisis of 1997 in South Korea. Using Korea's 1995, 2000, and 2005 census data aggregately linked to mortality data (1993-2006), relative and absolute differentials in suicide mortality by education were calculated by gender and age among Korean population aged 35 and over. Average annual suicide mortality rates have steadily increased from 1993-1997 to 2003-2006 in almost all sociodemographic groups stratified by gender, age, and education. Based on the relative index of inequality (RII) and slope index of inequality (SII), educational differentials in suicide mortality generally increased over time in men and women aged 45 years+. Although RII did not increase with year among men and women aged 35 - 44 years, SII showed a significantly increasing trend in this age group. These worsening absolute inequalities in suicide mortality indicate that the governmental suicide prevention policy should be directed toward socially disadvantaged groups of the Korean population.

Parenting style in childhood and mortality risk at older ages: a longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Demakakos, Panayotes; Pillas, Demetris; Marmot, Michael; Steptoe, Andrew

2016-08-01

Parenting style is associated with offspring health, but whether it is associated with offspring mortality at older ages remains unknown. We examined whether childhood experiences of suboptimal parenting style are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. Longitudinal cohort study of 1964 community-dwelling adults aged 65-79 years. The association between parenting style and mortality was inverse and graded. Participants in the poorest parenting style score quartile had increased risk of death (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.72, 95% CI 1.20-2.48) compared with those in the optimal parenting style score quartile after adjustment for age and gender. Full adjustment for covariates partially explained this association (HR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.02-2.18). Parenting style was inversely associated with cancer and other mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Maternal and paternal parenting styles were individually associated with mortality. Experiences of suboptimal parenting in childhood are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2016.

Parenting style in childhood and mortality risk at old age: a longitudinal cohort study

PubMed Central

Demakakos, Panayotes; Pillas, Demetris; Marmot, Michael; Steptoe, Andrew

2018-01-01

Background Parenting style is associated with offspring health, but whether it is associated with offspring mortality at older ages remains unknown. Aims We examined whether childhood experiences of suboptimal parenting style are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. Method Longitudinal cohort study of 1,964 community-dwelling adults aged 65 to 79 years. Results The association between parenting style and mortality was inverse and graded. Participants in the poorest parenting style score quartile had increased risk of death (hazard ratio (HR) 1.72; 95% CI, 1.20-2.48) compared with those in the optimal parenting style score quartile after adjustment for age and sex. Full adjustment for covariates partially explained this association (HR 1.49; 95% CI, 1.02-2.18). Parenting style was inversely associated with cancer and other mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Maternal and paternal parenting styles were individually associated with mortality. Conclusions Experiences of suboptimal parenting in childhood are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. PMID:26941265

[The Regional Risk Factors of Mortality Of Adult Population Because Of Leading Non-Infectious Diseases].

PubMed

Khamitova, R Ya; Sabirzianova, A R; Ziatdinov, V B

2017-07-01

The analysis of data of 2000--2014 established a significant decreasing of total mortality of population of the Republic of Tatarstan. however, this occurrence concerns in a greater degree individuals of retirement age than able-bodied population. The percentage of mortality in connection with diseases of blood circulation diseases, diseases of respiratory system and neoplasms decreased in total mortality and elder age category but remained stable or even increased in population of able-bodied age. The anthropogenic load on objects of environment significantly effects mortality of population of able-bodied age (with wider spectrum of significant parameters) and elder age in the above listed classes of diseases. The values of generalized dispersion explain 95--98% of dispersion of intial indices of chemical pollution of the territory positively and/or negatively correlating with coefficients of mortality in main non-infectious diseases.

Determinants of child nutrition and mortality in north-west Uganda.

PubMed

Vella, V; Tomkins, A; Borghesi, A; Migliori, G B; Adriko, B C; Crevatin, E

1992-01-01

An anthropometric survey of children aged 0-59 months in north-west Uganda in February-March 1987 indicated a high prevalence of stunting but little wasting. Use of unprotected water supplies in the dry season, prolonged breast-feeding, and age negatively affected nutrition; in contrast, parental education level improved nutrition. Mortality during the 12 months following the survey was higher among those who had low weight-for-age and weight-for-height, but children who had low height-for-age did not have higher mortality. Weight-for-age was the most sensitive predictor of mortality at specificities > 88%, while at lower specificity levels weight-for-height was the most sensitive. Children whose fathers' work was associated with the distillation of alcohol had a higher risk of mortality than other children. The lowest mortality was among children whose fathers were businessmen or who grew tobacco.

Inequality in mortality by occupation related to economic crisis from 1980 to 2010 among working-age Japanese males

PubMed Central

Wada, Koji; Gilmour, Stuart

2016-01-01

The mortality rate for Japanese males aged 30–59 years in managerial and professional spiked in 2000 and remains worse than that of other occupations possibly associated with the economic downturn of the 1990s and the global economic stagnation after 2008. The present study aimed to assess temporal occupation-specific mortality trends from 1980 to 2010 for Japanese males aged 30–59 years for major causes of death. We obtained data from the Occupation-specific Vital Statistics. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates for the four leading causes of death (all cancers, suicide, ischaemic heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease). We used a generalized estimating equation model to determine specific effects of the economic downturn after 2000. The age-standardized mortality rate for the total working-age population steadily declined up to 2010 in all major causes of death except suicide. Managers had a higher risk of mortality in all leading causes of death compared with before 1995. Mortality rates among unemployed people steadily decreased for all cancers and ischaemic heart disease. Economic downturn may have caused the prolonged increase in suicide mortality. Unemployed people did not experience any change in mortality due to suicide and cerebrovascular disease and saw a decline in cancer and ischemic heart disease mortality, perhaps because the basic properties of Japan’s social welfare system were maintained even during economic recession. PMID:26936097

Patterns of Cancer in Kurdistan - Results of Eight Years Cancer Registration in Sulaymaniyah Province-Kurdistan-Iraq.

PubMed

Khoshnaw, Najmaddin; Mohammed, Hazha A; Abdullah, Dana A

2015-01-01

Cancer has become a major health problem associated with high mortality worldwide, especially in developing countries. The aim of our study was to evaluate the incidence rates of different types of cancer in Sulaymaniyah from January-2006 to January-2014. The data were compared with those reported for other middle east countries. This retrospective study depended on data collected from Hiwa hospital cancer registry unit, death records and histopathology reports in all Sulaymaniyah teaching hospitals, using international classification of diseases. A total of 8,031 cases were registered during the eight year period, the annual incidence rate in all age groups rose from 38 to 61.7 cases/100,000 population/year, with averages over 50 in males and 50.7 in females. The male to female ratio in all age groups were 0.98, while in the pediatric age group it was 1.33. The hematological malignancies in all age groups accounted for 20% but in the pediatric group around half of all cancer cases. Pediatric cancers were occluding 7% of total cancers with rates of 10.3 in boys and 8.7 in girls. The commonest malignancies by primary site were leukemia, lymphoma, brain, kidney and bone. In males in all age groups they were lung, leukaemia, lymphoma, colorectal, prostate, bladder, brain, stomach, carcinoma of unknown primary (CUP) and skin, while in females they were breast, leukaemia, lymphoma, colorectal, ovary, lung, brain, CUP, and stomach. Most cancers were increased with increasing age except breast cancer where decrease was noted in older ages. High mortality rates were found with leukemia, lung, lymphoma, colorectal, breast and stomach cancers. We here found an increase in annual cancer incidence rates across the period of study, because of increase of cancer with age and higher rates of hematological malignancies. Our study is valuable for Kurdistan and Iraq because it provides more accurate data about the exact patterns of cancer and mortality in our region.

Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men.

PubMed

Jee, Yon Ho; Shin, Aesun; Lee, Jong-Keun; Oh, Chang-Mo

2016-12-05

Background: This study aimed to examine trends in smoking-related cancer mortality rates and to investigate the effect birth cohort on smoking-related cancer mortality in Korean men. Methods: The number of smoking-related cancer deaths and corresponding population numbers were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984-2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to detect changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates. Birth-cohort specific mortality rates were illustrated by 5 year age groups. Results: The age-standardized mortality rates for oropharyngeal decreased from 2003 to 2013 (annual percent change (APC): -3.1 (95% CI, -4.6 to -1.6)) and lung cancers decreased from 2002 to 2013 (APC -2.4 (95% CI -2.7 to -2.2)). The mortality rates for esophageal declined from 1994 to 2002 (APC -2.5 (95% CI -4.1 to -0.8)) and from 2002 to 2013 (APC -5.2 (95% CI -5.7 to -4.7)) and laryngeal cancer declined from 1995 to 2013 (average annual percent change (AAPC): -3.3 (95% CI -4.7 to -1.8)). By the age group, the trends for the smoking-related cancer mortality except for oropharyngeal cancer have changed earlier to decrease in the younger age group. The birth-cohort specific mortality rates and age-period-cohort analysis consistently showed that all birth cohorts born after 1930 showed reduced mortality of smoking-related cancers. Conclusions: In Korean men, smoking-related cancer mortality rates have decreased. Our findings also indicate that current decreases in smoking-related cancer mortality rates have mainly been due to a decrease in the birth cohort effect, which suggest that decrease in smoking rates.

Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men

PubMed Central

Jee, Yon Ho; Shin, Aesun; Lee, Jong-Keun; Oh, Chang-Mo

2016-01-01

Background: This study aimed to examine trends in smoking-related cancer mortality rates and to investigate the effect birth cohort on smoking-related cancer mortality in Korean men. Methods: The number of smoking-related cancer deaths and corresponding population numbers were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984–2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to detect changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates. Birth-cohort specific mortality rates were illustrated by 5 year age groups. Results: The age-standardized mortality rates for oropharyngeal decreased from 2003 to 2013 (annual percent change (APC): −3.1 (95% CI, −4.6 to −1.6)) and lung cancers decreased from 2002 to 2013 (APC −2.4 (95% CI −2.7 to −2.2)). The mortality rates for esophageal declined from 1994 to 2002 (APC −2.5 (95% CI −4.1 to −0.8)) and from 2002 to 2013 (APC −5.2 (95% CI −5.7 to −4.7)) and laryngeal cancer declined from 1995 to 2013 (average annual percent change (AAPC): −3.3 (95% CI −4.7 to −1.8)). By the age group, the trends for the smoking-related cancer mortality except for oropharyngeal cancer have changed earlier to decrease in the younger age group. The birth-cohort specific mortality rates and age-period-cohort analysis consistently showed that all birth cohorts born after 1930 showed reduced mortality of smoking-related cancers. Conclusions: In Korean men, smoking-related cancer mortality rates have decreased. Our findings also indicate that current decreases in smoking-related cancer mortality rates have mainly been due to a decrease in the birth cohort effect, which suggest that decrease in smoking rates. PMID:27929405

Ten-year all-cause mortality and its association with vision among Indigenous Australians within Central Australia: the Central Australian Ocular Health Study.

PubMed

Liu, Ebony; Ng, Soo K; Kahawita, Shyalle; Andrew, Nicholas H; Henderson, Tim; Craig, Jamie E; Landers, John

2017-05-01

No studies to date have explored the association of vision with mortality in Indigenous Australians. We aimed to determine the 10-year all-cause mortality and its associations among Indigenous Australians living in Central Australia. Prospective observational cohort study. A total of 1257 (93.0%) of 1347 patients from The Central Australian Ocular Health Study, over the age of 40 years, were available for follow-up during a 10-year period. All-cause mortality and its associations with visual acuity, age and gender were analysed. All-cause mortality. All-cause mortality was 29.3% at the end of 10 years. Mortality increased as age of recruitment increased: 14.2% (40-49 years), 22.6% (50-59 years), 50.3% (60 years or older) (χ = 59.15; P < 0.00001). Gender was not associated with mortality as an unadjusted variable, but after adjustment with age and visual acuity, women were 17.0% less likely to die (t = 2.09; P = 0.037). Reduced visual acuity was associated with increased mortality rate (5% increased mortality per one line of reduced visual acuity; t = 4.74; P < 0.0001) after adjustment for age, sex, diabetes and hypertension. The 10-year all-cause mortality rate of Indigenous Australians over the age of 40 years and living in remote communities of Central Australia was 29.3%. This is more than double that of the Australian population as a whole. Mortality was significantly associated with visual acuity at recruitment. Further work designed to better understand this association is warranted and may help to reduce this disparity in the future. © 2016 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Cancer mortality in central Serbia.

PubMed

Markovic-Denic, Ljiljana; Cirkovic, Andia; Zivkovic, Snezana; Stanic, Danica; Skodric-Trifunovic, Vesna

2014-01-01

Cancer is the one of the leading cause of death worldwide. The aim of this study was to examine cancer mortality trends in the population of central Serbia in the period from 2002 to 2011. The descriptive epidemiological method was used. The mortality from all malignant tumors (code C00-C96 of the International Disease Classification) was registered. The source of mortality data was the published material of the Cancer Registry of Serbia. The source of population data was the census of 2002 and 2011 and the estimates for inter-census years. Non-standardized, age-adjusted and age-specific mortality rates were calculated. Age adjustment of mortality rates was performed by the direct method of standardization. Trend lines were estimated using linear regression. During 2002-2011, cancer caused about 20% of all deaths each year in central Serbia. More men (56.9%) than women (43.1%) died of cancer. The average mortality rate for men was 1.3 times higher compared to women. A significant trend of increase of the age-adjusted mortality rates was recorded both for males (p<0.001) and for females (p=0.02). Except gastric cancer, the age-adjusted mortality rates in men were significantly increased for lung cancer (p=0.02), colorectal cancer (p<0.05), prostate cancer (p=0.01) and pancreatic cancer (p=0.01). Age-adjusted mortality rates for breast cancer in females were remarkably increased (p=0.01), especially after 2007. In central Serbia during the period from 2002 to 2011, there was an increasing trend in mortality rates due to cancers in both sexes. Cancer mortality in males was 1.3-fold higher compared to females.

Wealth and mortality at older ages: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Demakakos, Panayotes; Biddulph, Jane P; Bobak, Martin; Marmot, Michael G

2016-04-01

Despite the importance of socioeconomic position for survival, total wealth, which is a measure of accumulation of assets over the life course, has been underinvestigated as a predictor of mortality. We investigated the association between total wealth and mortality at older ages. We estimated Cox proportional hazards models using a sample of 10,305 community-dwelling individuals aged ≥ 50 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. 2401 deaths were observed over a mean follow-up of 9.4 years. Among participants aged 50-64 years, the fully adjusted HRs for mortality were 1.21 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.59) and 1.77 (1.35 to 2.33) for those in the intermediate and lowest wealth tertiles, respectively, compared with those in the highest wealth tertile. The respective HRs were 2.54 (1.27 to 5.09) and 3.73 (1.86 to 7.45) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.36 (0.76 to 2.42) and 2.53 (1.45 to 4.41) for other non-cancer mortality. Wealth was not associated with cancer mortality in the fully adjusted model. Similar but less strong associations were observed among participants aged ≥ 65 years. The use of repeated measurements of wealth and covariates brought about only minor changes, except for the association between wealth and cardiovascular mortality, which became less strong in the younger participants. Wealth explained the associations between paternal occupation at age 14 years, education, occupational class, and income and mortality. There are persisting wealth inequalities in mortality at older ages, which only partially are explained by established risk factors. Wealth appears to be more strongly associated with mortality than other socioeconomic position measures. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

[Analysis of the impact of mortality due to suicides in Mexico, 2000-2012].

PubMed

Dávila Cervantes, Claudio Alberto; Ochoa Torres, María del Pilar; Casique Rodríguez, Irene

2015-12-01

The objective of this study was to analyze the burden of disease due to suicide in Mexico using years of life lost (YLL) between 2000 and 2012 by sex, age group (for those under 85 years of age) and jurisdiction. Vital statistics on mortality and population estimates were used to calculate standardized mortality rates and years of life lost due to suicide. Between 2000 and 2012 a sustained increase in the suicide mortality rate was observed in Mexico. The age group with the highest rate was 85 years of age or older for men, and 15-19 years of age for women. The highest impact in life expectancy due to suicide occurred at 20 to 24 years of age in men and 15 to 19 years of age in women. The states with the highest mortality due to suicide were located in the Yucatan Peninsula (Yucatan, Quintana Roo and Campeche). Mortality due to suicide in Mexico has increased continually. As suicides are preventable, the implementation of health public policies through timely identification, integral prevention strategies and the detailed study of associated risk factors is imperative.

Age- and Sex-Specific Trends in Lung Cancer Mortality over 62 Years in a Nation with a Low Effort in Cancer Prevention

PubMed Central

John, Ulrich; Hanke, Monika

2016-01-01

Background: A decrease in lung cancer mortality among females below 50 years of age has been reported for countries with significant tobacco control efforts. The aim of this study was to describe the lung cancer deaths, including the mortality rates and proportions among total deaths, for females and males by age at death in a country with a high smoking prevalence (Germany) over a time period of 62 years. Methods: The vital statistics data were analyzed using a joinpoint regression analysis stratified by age and sex. An age-period-cohort analysis was used to estimate the potential effects of sex and school education on mortality. Results: After an increase, lung cancer mortality among women aged 35–44 years remained stable from 1989 to 2009 and decreased by 10.8% per year from 2009 to 2013. Conclusions: Lung cancer mortality among females aged 35–44 years has decreased. The potential reasons include an increase in the number of never smokers, following significant increases in school education since 1950, particularly among females. PMID:27023582

Tissue advanced glycation end products (AGEs), measured by skin autofluorescence, predict mortality in peritoneal dialysis.

PubMed

Siriopol, Dimitrie; Hogas, Simona; Veisa, Gabriel; Mititiuc, Irina; Volovat, Carmen; Apetrii, Mugurel; Onofriescu, Mihai; Busila, Irina; Oleniuc, Mihaela; Covic, Adrian

2015-03-01

The relation between tissue AGEs and mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is documented, but only in hemodialysis (HD) patients. This study aimed to measure and compare tissue AGEs levels in patients receiving either HD or peritoneal dialysis (PD) and to study the effect of these products on all-cause, cardiovascular or sepsis-related mortality. Tissue AGEs were noninvasively assessed in 304 dialysis patients (202 on chronic HD and 102 on continuous ambulatory PD) by measuring skin autofluorescence using a validated Autofluorescence Reader (AGE Reader, DiagnOptics b.v., Groningen, The Netherlands). There was no difference in regard to AGEs levels between the HD (3.6 ± 0.8 AU)- and PD (3.5 ± 0.7 AU, p = 0.2)-treated patients. Diabetic patients had higher AGEs values in the HD group (3.97 ± 0.81 vs. 3.52 ± 0.77, p = 0.002), but not in the PD group (3.68 ± 0.6 vs. 3.45 ± 0.70, p = 0.26). In PD patients, increasing AGEs levels were associated with an elevated risk of all-cause mortality (a 2.09-fold increase for each increment of 1 AU in AGEs values) and sepsis (a 3.44-fold increase for each increment of 1 AU in AGEs values)-related mortality. Performing a similar analysis in diabetic patients, AGEs was associated only with sepsis-related mortality (a 3.08-fold increase for each increment of 1 AU in AGEs values). This is the first study that demonstrates a relationship between tissue AGEs levels and sepsis-related mortality in PD-treated or diabetic ESRD patients. Future studies are necessary to evaluate the non-cardiovascular effects of tissue AGEs in ESRD patients.

Age-period-cohort analysis of infectious disease mortality in urban-rural China, 1990-2010.

PubMed

Li, Zhi; Wang, Peigang; Gao, Ge; Xu, Chunling; Chen, Xinguang

2016-03-31

Although a number of studies on infectious disease trends in China exist, these studies have not distinguished the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously. Here, we analyze infectious disease mortality trends among urban and rural residents in China and distinguish the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously. Infectious disease mortality rates (1990-2010) of urban and rural residents (5-84 years old) were obtained from the China Health Statistical Yearbook and analyzed with an age-period-cohort (APC) model based on Intrinsic Estimator (IE). Infectious disease mortality is relatively high at age group 5-9, reaches a minimum in adolescence (age group 10-19), then rises with age, with the growth rate gradually slowing down from approximately age 75. From 1990 to 2010, except for a slight rise among urban residents from 2000 to 2005, the mortality of Chinese residents experienced a substantial decline, though at a slower pace from 2005 to 2010. In contrast to the urban residents, rural residents experienced a rapid decline in mortality during 2000 to 2005. The mortality gap between urban and rural residents substantially narrowed during this period. Overall, later birth cohorts experienced lower infectious disease mortality risk. From the 1906-1910 to the 1941-1945 birth cohorts, the decrease of mortality among urban residents was significantly faster than that of subsequent birth cohorts and rural counterparts. With the rapid aging of the Chinese population, the prevention and control of infectious disease in elderly people will present greater challenges. From 1990 to 2010, the infectious disease mortality of Chinese residents and the urban-rural disparity have experienced substantial declines. However, the re-emergence of previously prevalent diseases and the emergence of new infectious diseases created new challenges. It is necessary to further strengthen screening, immunization, and treatment for the elderly and for older cohorts at high risk.

Mortality rates among Arab Americans in Michigan.

PubMed

Dallo, Florence J; Schwartz, Kendra; Ruterbusch, Julie J; Booza, Jason; Williams, David R

2012-04-01

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate age-specific and age-adjusted cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans; and (2) compare these rates with those for blacks and whites. Mortality rates were estimated using Michigan death certificate data, an Arab surname and first name list, and 2000 U.S. Census data. Age-specific rates, age-adjusted all-cause and cause-specific rates were calculated. Arab Americans (75+) had higher mortality rates than whites and blacks. Among men, all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans were in the range of whites and blacks. However, Arab American men had lower mortality rates from cancer and chronic lower respiratory disease compared to both whites and blacks. Among women, Arab Americans had lower mortality rates from heart disease, cancer, stroke, and diabetes than whites and blacks. Arab Americans are growing in number. Future study should focus on designing rigorous separate analyses for this population.

Mortality Rates Among Arab Americans in Michigan

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Kendra; Ruterbusch, Julie J.; Booza, Jason; Williams, David R.

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate age-specific and age-adjusted cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans; and (2) compare these rates with those for blacks and whites. Mortality rates were estimated using Michigan death certificate data, an Arab surname and first name list, and 2000 U.S. Census data. Age-specific rates, age-adjusted all-cause and cause-specific rates were calculated. Arab Americans (75+) had higher mortality rates than whites and blacks. Among men, all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans were in the range of whites and blacks. However, Arab American men had lower mortality rates from cancer and chronic lower respiratory disease compared to both whites and blacks. Among women, Arab Americans had lower mortality rates from heart disease, cancer, stroke, and diabetes than whites and blacks. Arab Americans are growing in number. Future study should focus on designing rigorous separate analyses for this population. PMID:21318619

Useful indicators to interpret the cancer burden in Italy.

PubMed

Vercelli, Marina; Quaglia, Alberto; Lillini, Roberto

2013-01-01

In the last decades the demographics of most Western countries have undergone a deep transformation, which has caused a steady increase in degenerative chronic diseases and has made maintaining health and social support by the welfare system difficult. This paper aims to present a set of indicators pertaining to the health status of the Italian population and to the national economic and social systems, as an aid to a better interpretation of the cancer burden impact and of its future tendencies. All indicators were derived from the ISTAT Health for All database. They were presented by region or macro area, globally or by gender, considering the most recent regional distribution and their time trends. The following features of the Italian population were chosen: percent of people aged over 65 years; life expectancy at birth; birth rate; crude and age-standardized overall mortality rates; dependency ratio; percent of single persons; percent of people with no more than a junior high school diploma; percent of people attaining at least the short first university degree; percent of people employed in the service and tertiary sectors; unemployment rate; incidence of poverty; total health expenditure (THE) as an absolute value and as percent of GDP; percent of public THE; percent of out-of-pocket THE of households; percent of smokers; proportion of overweight and obese people aged ≥18 years. Italy presented an unbalanced demographic situation with an increasingly old population, a decreasing middle-aged age group, a low birth rate, high crude overall mortality rates, and decreasing standardized overall mortality rates. The Italian population is characterized by a constant increase in the dependency ratio and in the percentage of people living alone, together with increasing expenses for health care, both at the public and households levels. Smoking has reduced its impact in men but not yet in women. The increasing proportion of overweight and obese people may explain the convergence in time of the mortality rates of the different Italian macro areas. The Italian situation seems to be not well fitted to face the expected growing cancer burden. Along with the aging of the population, the corresponding lowering of the national GDP due to the persisting global economic crisis will lead the public sector and families to reduce health expenditure, while the number of people affected by cancer is bound to increase. Moreover, the social support provided by family members and the advantages of the Mediterranean dietary habits are declining. The strategies for facing the challenging evolution of the future should focus on successful primary prevention and a wider application of evidence-based medicine to optimize the choice of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures offered to citizens.

Causes of death and expected years of life lost among treated opioid-dependent individuals in the United States and Taiwan

PubMed Central

Chang, Kun-Chia; Wang, Jung-Der; Saxon, Andrew; Matthews, Abigail G.; Woody, George; Hser, Yih-Ing

2017-01-01

Aims This study compared the cause-specific standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and expected years of life lost (EYLL) among opioid-dependent individuals in the United States and Taiwan. Methods Survival data came from two cohorts followed until 2014: The U.S. data were based on a randomized trial of 1,267 opioid-dependent participants enrolled between 2006 and 2009; the Taiwan data were from a study of 983 individuals that began in 2006, when opioid agonist treatment (OAT) was implemented in Taiwan. SMRs were calculated for each national cohort and compared. Kaplan-Meier estimation was performed on the survival data, then lifespans were extrapolated to 70 years (840 months) to estimate life expectancy using a semi-parametric method. EYLLs for both cohorts were estimated by subtracting their life expectancies from the age- and gender-matched referents within the general population of their respective country. Results Compared with age- and gender- matched referents, the SMRs were 3.2 for the U.S. sample and 7.8 for the Taiwan sample; the EYLLs were 7.7 and 16.4 years, respectively. Half of decedents died of unnatural causes in both cohorts; overdose deaths predominated in the U.S. and suicide in Taiwan. Conclusions Our study identified differences by country in EYLL and causes of deaths. These findings suggest that intervention strategies to reduce mortality risk by overdose (particularly in the U.S.) and suicide (particularly in Taiwan) are urgently needed in these countries. PMID:28160734

Daily home gardening improved survival for older people with mobility limitations: an 11-year follow-up study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Lêng, Chhian Hūi; Wang, Jung-Der

2016-01-01

To test the hypothesis that gardening is beneficial for survival after taking time-dependent comorbidities, mobility, and depression into account in a longitudinal middle-aged (50-64 years) and older (≥65 years) cohort in Taiwan. The cohort contained 5,058 nationally sampled adults ≥50 years old from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging (1996-2007). Gardening was defined as growing flowers, gardening, or cultivating potted plants for pleasure with five different frequencies. We calculated hazard ratios for the mortality risks of gardening and adjusted the analysis for socioeconomic status, health behaviors and conditions, depression, mobility limitations, and comorbidities. Survival models also examined time-dependent effects and risks in each stratum contingent upon baseline mobility and depression. Sensitivity analyses used imputation methods for missing values. Daily home gardening was associated with a high survival rate (hazard ratio: 0.82; 95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.94). The benefits were robust for those with mobility limitations, but without depression at baseline (hazard ratio: 0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.48-0.87) when adjusted for time-dependent comorbidities, mobility limitations, and depression. Chronic or relapsed depression weakened the protection of gardening. For those without mobility limitations and not depressed at baseline, gardening had no effect. Sensitivity analyses using different imputation methods yielded similar results and corroborated the hypothesis. Daily gardening for pleasure was associated with reduced mortality for Taiwanese >50 years old with mobility limitations but without depression.

[Chile: mortality between 1 and 4 years of age. Trends and causes].

PubMed

Taucher, E

1981-08-01

The great decline in infant mortality in Chile in the last 2 decades provokes interest in the current situation in child mortality (for children 1-4 years of age). For the present analysis, central death rates and probabilities of dying are used, calculated with Greville's method from birth and death data. Mortality trends of the group between 1961-78, sex differentials, and causes of death are studied. The findings indicate that mortality in this age group has declined dramatically during the period of analysis, mainly due to the decrease in mortality from respiratory diseases, diarrhea, and diseases avoidable through vaccination. To attain the future approach of the Chilean rate to that of more developed countries, the reduction of mortality from respiratory diseases and diarrhea should continue together with the achievement of substantial reduction in mortality from violence and accidents. This, the primary cause of death in children, ages 1-4, has not varied during the period under study. (author's)

Trends in Guillain-Barré syndrome mortality in Spain from 1999 to 2013.

PubMed

Ruiz, Elena; Ramalle-Gómara, Enrique; Quiñones, Carmen; Martínez-Ochoa, Eva

2016-11-01

Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is a rare disease that consists of a group of neuropathic conditions. Very few epidemiological studies of GBS have been carried out in Spain. The aim of this study was to determine the trends in GBS mortality in the total population of Spain for the period 1999 to 2013. Data on GBS deaths were drawn from the National Statistics Institute of Spain. Crude and overall age-standardised GBS mortality rates were calculated and joinpoint regression models were used to describe trend changes. Mean age of deceased by GBS each year was also assessed. The overall age-standardised GBS mortality rate was 0.71 per million in 1999 and 0.40 in 2013. It was higher in men, 1.08 vs. 0.42 in 1999 and 0.48 vs. 0.35 in 2013. There was a statistically significant decrease in mortality during the study period. All the age-standardised mortality rates decreased (overall and by gender) from 1999 to 2013. The mean age at death increased with time, from 73 years in 1999 to 77 years in 2013. GBS mortality has improved in Spain during the last 15 years. The age of death has risen and the mortality rate has decreased.

The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications? Methods We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled. Results For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact. Conclusions In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence of the emerging virus and is moderated by immunity of past experience. In this study, we found that after immune escape, older age groups showed no further mortality reduction, despite their being the principal target of conventional influenza vaccines. Vaccines incorporating variants of pandemic viruses seem to provide little benefit to those previously immune. If attack rates truly are similar across pandemics, it must be the case that immunity to the pandemic virus does not prevent infection, but only mitigates the consequences. PMID:23234604

Evidence of accelerated aging among African Americans and its implications for mortality.

PubMed

Levine, M E; Crimmins, E M

2014-10-01

Blacks experience morbidity and mortality earlier in the life course compared to whites. Such premature declines in health may be indicative of an acceleration of the aging process. The current study uses data on 7644 black and white participants, ages 30 and above, from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, to compare the biological ages of blacks and whites as indicated from a combination of ten biomarkers and to determine if such differences in biological age relative to chronological age account for racial disparities in mortality. At a specified chronological age, blacks are approximately 3 years older biologically than whites. Differences in biological age between blacks and whites appear to increase up until ages 60-65 and then decline, presumably due to mortality selection. Finally, differences in biological age were found to completely account for higher levels of all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality among blacks. Overall, these results suggest that being black is associated with significantly higher biological age at a given chronological age and that this is a pathway to early death both overall and from the major age-related diseases. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On-farm mortality, causes and risk factors in Estonian beef cow-calf herds.

PubMed

Mõtus, Kerli; Reimus, Kaari; Orro, Toomas; Viltrop, Arvo; Emanuelson, Ulf

2017-04-01

High on-farm mortality is associated with lower financial return of production and poor animal health and welfare. Understanding the reasons for on-farm mortality and related risk factors allows focus on specific prevention measures. This retrospective cohort study used cattle registry data from the years 2013 and 2014, collected from cattle from all Estonian cow-calf beef herds. The dataset contained 78,605 animal records from 1321 farms in total. Including unassisted deaths and euthanasia (2199 in total) the on-farm mortality rate was 2.14 per 100 animal-years. Across all age groups of both sexes the mortality rate (MR) was highest for bull calves up to three months old (MR=7.78 per 100 animal-years, 95% CI 6.97; 8.68) followed by that for heifer calves (MR=6.21 per 100 animal-years, 95% CI 5.49; 7.02). For female cattle the mortality risk declined after three months of age but increased again among animals over 18 months. The reason for death stated by the farmers was analysed for cattle under animal performance testing. Other/unknown reasons, trauma and accidents, as well as metabolic and digestive disorders, formed the three most commonly reported reasons for death in cattle of all age groups. Weibull proportional hazard models with farm frailty effects were applied in three age categories (calves up to three months, youngstock from three to 18 months and cattle aged over 18 months) to identify factors associated with the risk of mortality. Male sex was associated with increased risk of mortality in cattle up to 18 months of age. No difference between breeds was found for cattle up to 18 months of age. Beef cattle breeds rarely represented or dairy breeds (breed category 'Other') had the highest mortality hazard (HR=1.41, 95% CI 1.11; 1.78) compared to Hereford. The hazard of mortality generally increased with herd size for calves, young stock and older bulls. In female cattle over 18 months of age there was no difference in mortality hazard over herd size categories. Herd location was controlled in the models and regional differences in mortality hazard were found. Common to all age groups, calving season was associated with increased risk of mortality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The relationship between mortality and time since divorce, widowhood or remarriage in Norway.

PubMed

Berntsen, Kjersti Norgård; Kravdal, Oystein

2012-12-01

The chance of dying within any given year probably depends not only on marital status in that year but also on earlier partnership history. There is still not much knowledge about such effects, however. Our intention is to see how mortality is associated with time since divorce, bereavement and remarriage and time between marital disruption and remarriage. We use register data that include the entire Norwegian population aged 40-89 from 1970 to 2008 (70,701,767 person-years of exposure and 1,484,281 deaths). The excess mortality of divorced men compared to their married counterparts increases with time since divorce, while there is no such trend among divorced women. The pattern is opposite for the widowed, among whom there are indications of a more sharply positive association with time since bereavement for women than for men, though the association is rather weak for both sexes. The remarried have higher mortality than the first-time married, with one surprising exception: men who have remarried after a period of less than 10 years as divorced or widowed have the same mortality as the married. There is no clear association between mortality and time since remarriage. We discuss possible reasons for these patterns. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-Reported Age of Onset and Telescoping for Cigarettes, Alcohol, and Marijuana: Across Eight Years of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shillington, Audrey M.; Woodruff, Susan I.; Clapp, John D.; Reed, Mark B.; Lemus, Hector

2012-01-01

Smoking, drinking, and illicit drug use are leading causes of morbidity and mortality, both during adolescence as well as later in life. The determination of how well national and local policy and intervention efforts address teen substance use depends largely on the collection of valid and accurate data. Assessments of substance use rely heavily…

Impact Analysis of Age on Fallout Fatality Estimations for IND Scenarios

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-11-30

management of the acute radiation syndrome : recommendations of the Strategic National Stockpile Radiation Working Group. Ann Intern Med 140: 1037-51...dependent radiation dose response for acute effects was evaluated in detail. The analysis included data from animal studies, radiation oncology, and other...probability of 60-day mortality (assuming no treatment) for acute radiation exposure. This model has been adapted to account for protracted fallout

PubMed

La Torre, Giuseppe; Verrengia, Giovanna; Saulle, Rossella; Kheiraoui, Flavia; Mannocci, Alice

2017-06-28

To identify the determinants of the regional differences in work injuries and mortality rates in Italy. Several linear regression models were built assessing the association between regional differences in work mortality and injury rates (as dependent variables) and socio-demographic factors (occupation and population) and variables describing alcohol consumption, mean age and availability of health care (as independent variables). Data sources are from ISTAT, INAIL, Health for All database and the national report Osservasalute. The analysis was carried out using data coming from all the Italian Regions. The mean work mortality rate for the period 2006-2014 was 7.73 (DS 1.85) per 100,000 workers, while the injury rate was 4503.1 (DS 1413.5) per 100,000 workers. Socio-demographic variables and that related to health care (TC availability) were inversely associated with mortality rates, while for the work injury rates, significant associations with alcohol were found, while Gross domestic product and TC availability were inversely associated. The study pointed out the extreme heterogeneity between different geographical areas in the field of work injury, due to different socio-demographic and economic factors. In the future, health surveillance and work injury and mortality rates could be improved in areas at high risk.

Age of red blood cells and outcome in acute kidney injury

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Transfusion of red blood cells (RBCs) and, in particular, older RBCs has been associated with increased short-term mortality in critically ill patients. We evaluated the association between age of transfused RBCs and acute kidney injury (AKI), hospital, and 90-day mortality in critically ill patients. Methods We conducted a prospective, observational, predefined sub-study within the FINNish Acute Kidney Injury (FINNAKI) study. This study included all elective ICU admissions with expected ICU stay of more than 24 hours and all emergency admissions from September to November 2011. To study the age of RBCs, we classified transfused patients into quartiles according to the age of oldest transfused RBC unit in the ICU. AKI was defined according to KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) criteria. Results Out of 1798 patients, 652 received at least one RBC unit. The median [interquartile range] age of the oldest RBC unit transfused was 12 [11-13] days in the freshest quartile and 21 [17-27] days in the quartiles 2 to 4. On logistic regression, RBC age was not associated with the development of KDIGO stage 3 AKI. Patients in the quartile of freshest RBCs had lower crude hospital and 90-day mortality rates compared to those in the quartiles of older blood. After adjustments, older RBC age was associated with significantly increased risk for hospital mortality. Age, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II)-score without age points, maximum Sequental Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and the total number of transfused RBC units were independently associated with 90-day mortality. Conclusions The age of transfused RBC units was independently associated with hospital mortality but not with 90-day mortality or KDIGO stage 3 AKI. The number of transfused RBC units was an independent risk factor for 90-day mortality. PMID:24093554

The PLAN score: a bedside prediction rule for death and severe disability following acute ischemic stroke.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Martin J; Fang, Jiming; D'Uva, Cami; Saposnik, Gustavo; Gould, Linda; McGrath, Emer; Kapral, Moira K

2012-11-12

We sought to develop and validate a simple clinical prediction rule for death and severe disability after acute ischemic stroke that can be used by general clinicians at the time of hospital admission. We analyzed data from a registry of 9847 patients (4943 in the derivation cohort and 4904 in the validation cohort) hospitalized with acute ischemic stroke and included in the Registry of the Canadian Stroke Network (July 1, 2003, to March 31, 2008; 11 regional stroke centers in Ontario, Canada). Outcome measures were 30-day and 1-year mortality and a modified Rankin score of 5 to 6 at discharge. Overall 30-day mortality was 11.5% (derivation cohort) and 13.5% (validation cohort). In the final multivariate model, we included 9 clinical variables that could be categorized as preadmission comorbidities (5 points for preadmission dependence [1.5], cancer [1.5], congestive heart failure [1.0], and atrial fibrillation [1.0]), level of consciousness (5 points for reduced level of consciousness), age (10 points, 1 point/decade), and neurologic focal deficit (5 points for significant/total weakness of the leg [2], weakness of the arm [2], and aphasia or neglect [1]). Maximum score is 25. In the validation cohort, the PLAN score (derived from preadmission comorbidities, level of consciousness, age, and neurologic deficit) predicted 30-day mortality (C statistic, 0.87), death or severe dependence at discharge (0.88), and 1-year mortality (0.84). The PLAN score also predicted favorable outcome (modified Rankin score, 0-2) at discharge (C statistic, 0.80). The PLAN clinical prediction rule identifies patients who will have a poor outcome after hospitalization for acute ischemic stroke. The score comprises clinical data available at the time of admission and may be determined by nonspecialist clinicians. Additional studies to independently validate the PLAN rule in different populations and settings are required.

Nutritional parameters as mortality predictors in haemodialysis: Differences between genders.

PubMed

Oliveira, Telma Sobral; Valente, Ana Tentúgal; Caetano, Cristina Guerreiro; Garagarza, Cristina Antunes

2017-06-01

Malnutrition is common in patients undergoing haemodialysis (HD). Several studies have described different nutritional parameters as mortality predictors but few have studied whether there are differences between genders. This study aimed to evaluate which nutrition parameters may be associated with mortality in patients undergoing long-term HD depending on their gender. Longitudinal prospective multicentre study with 12 months of follow-up. Anthropometric and laboratory measures were obtained from 697 patients. Men who died were older, had lower dry weight, body mass index, potassium, phosphorus and albumin, compared with male patients who survived. Female patients who died had lower albumin and nPCR compared with survivors. Kaplan-Meier analysis displayed a significantly worse survival in patients with albumin <3.5 g/dl in both genders and with body mass index <23 kg/m 2 in men. In the Cox regression analysis patients overall mortality was related to body mass index <23 kg/m 2 , potassium ≤5.5 mEq/l and phosphorus <3.0 mg/dl for male patients and albumin <3.5 g/dl and normalised protein catabolic rate (nPCR) <0.8 g/kg/day for both genders. Associations between albumin, body mass index and mortality risk continued to be significant after adjustments for age, length of time on dialysis and diabetes for males. However, in women, only albumin persisted as an independent predictor of death. Depending on the gender, different parameters such as protein intake, potassium, phosphorus, body mass index and albumin are associated with mortality in patients undergoing HD. Albumin <3.5 g/dl is an independent mortality predictor in both genders, whereas a body mass index <23 kg/m 2 is an independent predictor of death, but only in men. © 2017 European Dialysis and Transplant Nurses Association/European Renal Care Association.

Elevation of B-Type Natriuretic Peptide at Discharge is Associated With 2-Year Mortality After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement in Patients With Severe Aortic Stenosis: Insights From a Multicenter Prospective OCEAN-TAVI (Optimized Transcatheter Valvular Intervention-Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation) Registry.

PubMed

Mizutani, Kazuki; Hara, Masahiko; Iwata, Shinichi; Murakami, Takashi; Shibata, Toshihiko; Yoshiyama, Minoru; Naganuma, Toru; Yamanaka, Futoshi; Higashimori, Akihiro; Tada, Norio; Takagi, Kensuke; Araki, Motoharu; Ueno, Hiroshi; Tabata, Minoru; Shirai, Shinichi; Watanabe, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Masanori; Hayashida, Kentaro

2017-07-14

In this study, we sought to investigate the 2-year prognostic impact of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels at discharge, following transcatheter aortic valve replacement. We enrolled 1094 consecutive patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve replacement between 2013 and 2016. Study patients were stratified into 2 groups according to survival classification and regression tree analysis (high versus low BNP groups). We evaluated the impact of high BNP on 2-year mortality compared with that of low BNP using a multivariable Cox model, and assessed whether this stratification would improve predictive accuracy for determining 2-year mortality by assessing time-dependent net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement. The median age of patients was 85 years (quartile 82-88), and 29.2% of the study population were men. The median Society of Thoracic Surgeons score was 6.8 (4.7-9.5), and BNP at discharge was 186 (93-378) pg/mL. All-cause mortality following discharge was 7.9% (95% CI, 5.8-9.9%) at 1 year and 15.4% (95% CI, 11.6-19.0%) at 2 years. The survival classification and regression tree analysis revealed that the discriminating BNP level to discern 2-year mortality was 202 pg/mL, and that elevated BNP had a statistically significant impact on outcomes, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.28 (1.36-3.82, P =0.002). The time-dependent net reclassification improvement ( P =0.047) and integrated discrimination improvement ( P =0.029) analysis revealed that the incorporation of BNP stratification with other clinical variables significantly improved predictive accuracy for 2-year mortality. Elevation of BNP at discharge is associated with 2-year mortality after transcatheter aortic valve replacement. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Stable isotope ratio analysis of breastfeeding and weaning practices of children from medieval Fishergate House York, UK.

PubMed

Burt, Nicole M

2013-11-01

Rib collagen of 51 juveniles and 11 adult females from the late medieval Fishergate House cemetery site (York, UK) were analyzed using nitrogen and carbon stable isotope ratio analysis to determine the weaning age for this population and to reconstruct diet. The juveniles' ages ranged from fetal to 5-6 years, while the females were of reproductive age. Previous researchers suggested that the children from Fishergate House might have been weaned later than the medieval British norm of 2 years, based on a mortality peak at 4-6 years of age. The results show weaning was complete by 2 years of age, agreeing with previous British weaning studies. The adult female δ(15) N values have a mean of 11.4‰ ± 1.1‰ and the δ(13) C values have a mean of -19.4‰ ± 0.4‰. These findings are consistent with previous isotopic studies of female diet in York during this period, though slightly lower. The weaned juvenile nitrogen values were found to be higher than the adult females (12.4‰ ± 1.0‰ for δ(15) N and -19.7‰ ± 0.5‰ for δ(13) C), which might indicate a dependence on higher trophic level proteins such as marine fish or pork. Marine fish is considered a high status food and children are considered low-status individuals at this time, making this a particularly interesting finding. Weaning does not appear to coincide with peak mortality, suggesting environment factors may be playing a larger role in child mortality at Fishergate House. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The turn of the gradient? Educational differences in breast cancer mortality in 18 European populations during the 2000s.

PubMed

Gadeyne, S; Menvielle, G; Kulhanova, I; Bopp, M; Deboosere, P; Eikemo, T A; Hoffmann, R; Kovács, K; Leinsalu, M; Martikainen, P; Regidor, E; Rychtarikova, J; Spadea, T; Strand, B H; Trewin, C; Wojtyniak, B; Mackenbach, J P

2017-07-01

This study aims to investigate the association between educational level and breast cancer mortality in Europe in the 2000s. Unlike most other causes of death, breast cancer mortality tends to be positively related to education, with higher educated women showing higher mortality rates. Research has however shown that the association is changing from being positive over non-existent to negative in some countries. To investigate these patterns, data from national mortality registers and censuses were collected and harmonized for 18 European populations. The study population included all women aged 30-74. Age-standardized mortality rates, mortality rate ratios, and slope and relative indexes of inequality were computed by education. The population was stratified according to age (women aged 30-49 and women aged 50-74). The relation between educational level and breast cancer mortality was predominantly negative in women aged 30-49, mortality rates being lower among highly educated women and higher among low educated women, although few outcomes were statistically significant. Among women aged 50-74, the association was mostly positive and statistically significant in some populations. A comparison with earlier research in the 1990s revealed a changing pattern of breast cancer mortality. Positive educational differences that used to be significant in the 1990s were no longer significant in the 2000s, indicating that inequalities have decreased or disappeared. This evolution is in line with the "fundamental causes" theory which stipulates that whenever medical insights and treatment become available to combat a disease, a negative association with socio-economic position will arise, independently of the underlying risk factors. © 2017 UICC.

Which Biomarker is the Best for Predicting Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: NT-ProBNP, Cardiac TnT, or hsCRP?

PubMed Central

Oh, Hyung Jung; Lee, Mi Jung; Kwon, Young Eun; Park, Kyoung Sook; Park, Jung Tak; Han, Seung Hyeok; Yoo, Tae-Hyun; Kim, Yong-Lim; Kim, Yon Su; Yang, Chul Woo; Kim, Nam-Ho; Kang, Shin-Wook

2015-01-01

Abstract Although numerous previous studies have explored various biomarkers for their ability to predict mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients, these studies have been limited by retrospective analyses, mostly prevalent dialysis patients, and the measurement of only 1 or 2 biomarkers. This prospective study was aimed to evaluate the association between 3 biomarkers and mortality in incident 335 ESRD patients starting continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) in Korea. According to the baseline NT-proBNP, cTnT, and hsCRP levels, the patients were stratified into tertiles, and cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortalities were compared. Additionally, time-dependent ROC curves were constructed, and the net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of the models with various biomarkers were calculated. We found the upper tertile of NT-proBNP was significantly associated with increased risk of both CV and all-cause mortalities. However, the upper tertile of hsCRP was significantly related only to the high risk of all-cause mortality even after adjustment for age, sex, and white blood cell counts. Moreover, NT-proBNP had the highest predictive power for CV mortality, whereas hsCRP was the best prognostic marker for all-cause mortality among these biomarkers. In conclusions, NT-proBNP is a more significant prognostic factor for CV mortality than cTnT and hsCRP, whereas hsCRP is a more significant predictor than NT-proBNP and cTnT for all-cause mortality in incident peritoneal dialysis patients. PMID:26554763

All-Cause Mortality for Life Insurance Applicants with a History of Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Freitas, Stephen A; MacKenzie, Ross; Wylde, David N; Roudebush, Bradley T; Bergstrom, Richard L; Holowaty, J Carl; Beckman, Margaret; Rigatti, Steven J; Gill, Stacy

2017-01-01

- To determine the all-cause mortality of life insurance applicants diagnosed with prostate cancer currently or at some time in the past. - Prostate cancer is common and a frequent cause of cancer death. Both the frequency of prostate cancer in men and its propensity for causing premature mortality require insurance company medical directors and underwriters to have a good understanding of prostate cancer-related mortality trends, patterns, and outcomes in the insured population. - Life insurance applicants with reported prostate cancer were extracted from data covering United States residents between November 2007 and November 2014. Information about these applicants was matched to the Social Security Death Master (SSDMF) file for deaths occurring from 2007 to 2011 and to another commercially available death source file (Other Death Source, ODS) for deaths occurring from 2007 to 2014 to determine vital status. Actual to Expected (A/E) mortality ratios were calculated using the Society of Actuaries 2015 Valuation Basic Table (2015VBT), select and ultimate table (age last birthday) and the 2013 US population as expected mortality ratios. All expected bases were not smoker distinct. - The study covered applicants between the ages of 45 and 75 and had approximately 405,000 person-years of exposure. Older aged applicants had a lower mortality ratio than those who were younger. Applicants 45 to 54 had the highest mortality ratios in the first year after diagnosis which steadily decreased in years 6 to 10 with an increase in the mortality ratio for those over 10 years from diagnosis. Relative mortality rate was close to unity for those with localized cancer across all age groups. The mortality ratio was 2 to 4 times greater for those with cancer in 1 positive node, and much greater with 3 positive nodes. For each time-from-diagnosis category, the relative mortality ratios compared to age were highest in the 45-54 age group. The A/E mortality ratios based on the 2015VBT were consistently 3 to 4 times that of the mortality ratios based on the 2013 US population. - The mortality patterns of insurance applicants with prostate cancer were similar to that observed in individuals with prostate cancer in the general population. Applicant age, time to diagnosis and cancer severity were the most significant variables to predict mortality.

ANOTHER "LETHAL TRIAD"-RISK FACTORS FOR VIOLENT INJURY AND LONG-TERM MORTALITY AMONG ADULT VICTIMS OF VIOLENT INJURY.

PubMed

Laytin, Adam D; Shumway, Martha; Boccellari, Alicia; Juillard, Catherine J; Dicker, Rochelle A

2018-05-01

Mental illness, substance abuse, and poverty are risk factors for violent injury, and violent injury is a risk factor for early mortality that can be attenuated through hospital-based violence intervention programs. Most of these programs focus on victims under the age of 30 years. Little is known about risk factors or long-term mortality among older victims of violent injury. To explore the prevalence of risk factors for violent injury among younger (age < 30 years) and older (age 30 ≥ years) victims of violent injury, to determine the long-term mortality rates in these age groups, and to explore the association between risk factors for violent injury and long-term mortality. Adults with violent injuries were enrolled between 2001 and 2004. Demographic and injury data were recorded on enrollment. Ten-year mortality rates were measured. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were used to compare older and younger subjects. Among 541 subjects, 70% were over age 30. The overall 10-year mortality rate was 15%, and was much higher than in the age-matched general population in both age groups. Risk factors for violent injury including mental illness, substance abuse, and poverty were prevalent, especially among older subjects, and were each independently associated with increased risk of long-term mortality. Mental illness, substance abuse, and poverty constitute a "lethal triad" that is associated with an increased risk of long-term mortality among victims of violent injury, including both younger adults and those over age 30 years. Both groups may benefit from targeted risk-reduction efforts. Emergency department visits offer an invaluable opportunity to engage these vulnerable patients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measles mortality reduction contributes substantially to reduction of all cause mortality among children less than five years of age, 1990-2008.

PubMed

van den Ent, Maya M V X; Brown, David W; Hoekstra, Edward J; Christie, Athalia; Cochi, Stephen L

2011-07-01

The Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) to reduce mortality in children aged <5 years by two-thirds from 1990 to 2015 has made substantial progress. We describe the contribution of measles mortality reduction efforts, including those spearheaded by the Measles Initiative (launched in 2001, the Measles Initiative is an international partnership committed to reducing measles deaths worldwide and is led by the American Red Cross, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, UNICEF, the United Nations Foundation, and the World Health Organization). We used published data to assess the effect of measles mortality reduction on overall and disease-specific global mortality rates among children aged <5 years by reviewing the results from studies with the best estimates on causes of deaths in children aged 0-59 months. The estimated measles-related mortality among children aged <5 years worldwide decreased from 872,000 deaths in 1990 to 556,000 in 2001 (36% reduction) and to 118,000 in 2008 (86% reduction). All-cause mortality in this age group decreased from >12 million in 1990 to 10.6 million in 2001 (13% reduction) and to 8.8 million in 2008 (28% reduction). Measles accounted for about 7% of deaths in this age group in 1990 and 1% in 2008, equal to 23% of the global reduction in all-cause mortality in this age group from 1990 to 2008. Aggressive efforts to prevent measles have led to this remarkable reduction in measles deaths. The current funding gap and insufficient political commitment for measles control jeopardizes these achievements and presents a substantial risk to achieving MDG4. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.

Scale dependence of disease impacts on quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) mortality in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, David M.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.

2015-01-01

By examining variation in disease prevalence, mortality of healthy trees, and mortality of diseased trees, we showed that the role of disease in aspen tree mortality depended on the scale of inference. For variation among individuals in diameter, disease tended to expose intermediate-size trees experiencing moderate risk to greater risk. For spatial variation in summer temperature, disease exposed lower risk populations to greater mortality probabilities, but the magnitude of this exposure depended on summer precipitation. Furthermore, the importance of diameter and slenderness in mediating responses to climate supports the increasing emphasis on trait variation in studies of ecological responses to global change.

Widening socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in six Western European countries.

PubMed

Mackenbach, Johan P; Bos, Vivian; Andersen, Otto; Cardano, Mario; Costa, Giuseppe; Harding, Seeromanie; Reid, Alison; Hemström, Orjan; Valkonen, Tapani; Kunst, Anton E

2003-10-01

During the past decades a widening of the relative gap in death rates between upper and lower socioeconomic groups has been reported for several European countries. Although differential mortality decline for cardiovascular diseases has been suggested as an important contributory factor, it is not known what its quantitative contribution was, and to what extent other causes of death have contributed to the widening gap in total mortality. We collected data on mortality by educational level and occupational class among men and women from national longitudinal studies in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, England/Wales, and Italy (Turin), and analysed age-standardized death rates in two recent time periods (1981-1985 and 1991-1995), both total mortality and by cause of death. For simplicity, we report on inequalities in mortality between two broad socioeconomic groups (high and low educational level, non-manual and manual occupations). Relative inequalities in total mortality have increased in all six countries, but absolute differences in total mortality were fairly stable, with the exception of Finland where an increase occurred. In most countries, mortality from cardiovascular diseases declined proportionally faster in the upper socioeconomic groups. The exception is Italy (Turin) where the reverse occurred. In all countries with the exception of Italy (Turin), changes in cardiovascular disease mortality contributed about half of the widening relative gap for total mortality. Other causes also made important contributions to the widening gap in total mortality. For these causes, widening inequalities were sometimes due to increasing mortality rates in the lower socioeconomic groups. We found rising rates of mortality from lung cancer, breast cancer, respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, and injuries among men and/or women in lower socioeconomic groups in several countries. Reducing socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Western Europe critically depends upon speeding up mortality declines from cardiovascular diseases in lower socioeconomic groups, and countering mortality increases from several other causes of death in lower socioeconomic groups.

[Outcomes and predictors of mortality in elderly patients requiring artificial ventilation].

PubMed

Murai, Y; Matsumiya, H; Takemura, H; Koinuma, M

2000-07-01

We retrospectively examined the outcomes and the predictors of mortality in 97 patients aged 70 years and over (mean: 79.3 years) who required artificial ventilation for more than 3 hours. The median duration of artificial ventilation was 16 days (range: 1-85). Of these patients, 61% survived ventilator weaning and 37% were discharged from hospital alive. We performed univariate and logistic regression analysis to determine the predictors of dying before weaning and hospital discharge using severity of illness data. The predictors of hospital mortality were examined in 86 patients, excluding those who had malignant disease, all of whom died in hospital. Activities of daily living (ADL) were ranked as "bedridden", "in wheelchair", or "independent". In the three age groups-up to 70 years, 75 to 84 years and 85 years and over-the respective survival rates were 63% (weaned) and 67% (discharged), 69% (weaned) and 39% (discharged), and 33% (weaned) and 12% (discharged); the overall p values being 0.026 (weaned) and 0.003 (discharged). The predictors of dying before weaning according to univariate analysis were as follows: age (p = 0.026), respiratory or cardiac arrest on admission (p = 0.003), acute physiology score (APS) of 25 or more on admission (p = 0.000), systolic blood pressure below 90 mmHg on admission (p = 0.001), hemoglobin less than 11 g/dl (p = 0.044), and total protein less than 6 g/dl (p = 0.007). The predictors of hospital mortality by univariate analysis were as follows: age (p = 0.003), limited ADL (p = 0.001), respiratory or cardiac arrest on admission (p = 0.011), APS 25 or more on admission (p = 0.049), systolic blood pressure less than 90 mmHg on admission (p = 0.002), hemoglobin less than 11 g/dl (p = 0.028), and GOT or GPT more than 50 IU (p = 0.038). The relative risk of dying before weaning decreased in the order: respiratory or cardiac arrest on admission, systolic blood pressure less than 90 mmHg on admission, total protein less than 6 g/dl (Odds ratios: 6.04, 3.90, 3.51, respectively), or, respiratory or cardiac arrest on admission, APS more than 25 in admission, total protein less than 6 g/dl (Odds ratio: 6.94, 3.99, 3.76, respectively). The relative risk of hospital mortality decreased in the order: "bedridden", systolic blood pressure less than 90 mmHg on admission, "with wheel chair" (Odds ratios: 11.76, 6.44, 3.57, respectively). In the older patients, successful ventilator weaning was not indicative of hospital discharge. Ventilator weaning depended mainly on acute health status on admission, but hospital discharge depended also on the presence of limited ADL and preexisting malignant disease.

Causes of mortality in early infantile epileptic encephalopathy: A systematic review.

PubMed

Radaelli, Graciane; de Souza Santos, Francisco; Borelli, Wyllians Vendramini; Pisani, Leonardo; Nunes, Magda Lahorgue; Scorza, Fulvio Alexandre; da Costa, Jaderson Costa

2018-06-12

Early infantile epileptic encephalopathy syndrome (EIEE), also known as Ohtahara syndrome, is an age-dependent epileptic encephalopathy syndrome defined by clinical features and electroencephalographic findings. Epileptic disorders with refractory seizures beginning in the neonatal period and/or early infancy have a potential risk of premature mortality, including sudden death. We aimed to identify the causes of death in EIEE and conducted a literature survey of fatal outcomes. We performed a literature search in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science for data from inception until September 2017. The terms "death sudden," "unexplained death," "SUDEP," "lethal," and "fatal" and the medical subject heading terms "epileptic encephalopathy," "mortality," "death," "sudden infant death syndrome," and "human" were used in the search strategy. The EIEE case report studies reporting mortality were included. The search yielded 1360 articles. After screening for titles and abstracts and removing duplicate entries, full texts of 15 articles were reviewed. After reading full texts, 11 articles met the inclusion criteria (9 articles in English and 2 in Japanese, dated from 1976 to 2015). The review comprised 38 unique cases of EIEE, 17 of which had death as an outcome. In all cases, the suppression-burst pattern on electroencephalographies (EEGs) was common. Most cases (55%) involved male infants. The mean (standard deviation [SD]) age at onset of seizure was 19.6 ± 33 days. The mean (SD) age at death was 12.9 ± 14.1 months. Most infants (58.8%) survived less than one year. The cause of death was described only in eight (47%) patients; the cause was pneumonia/respiratory illness or sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP). The results show EIEE as a severe disease associated with a premature mortality, evidenced by a very young age at death. Increasing interest in the detection of new molecular bases of EIEE is leading us to a better understanding of this severe disease, but well-reported data are lacking to clarify EIEE-related causes of death. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conservative fluid management prevents age-associated ventilator induced mortality.

PubMed

Herbert, Joseph A; Valentine, Michael S; Saravanan, Nivi; Schneck, Matthew B; Pidaparti, Ramana; Fowler, Alpha A; Reynolds, Angela M; Heise, Rebecca L

2016-08-01

Approximately 800 thousand patients require mechanical ventilation in the United States annually with an in-hospital mortality rate of over 30%. The majority of patients requiring mechanical ventilation are over the age of 65 and advanced age is known to increase the severity of ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI) and in-hospital mortality rates. However, the mechanisms which predispose aging ventilator patients to increased mortality rates are not fully understood. Ventilation with conservative fluid management decreases mortality rates in acute respiratory distress patients, but to date there has been no investigation of the effect of conservative fluid management on VILI and ventilator associated mortality rates. We hypothesized that age-associated increases in susceptibility and incidence of pulmonary edema strongly promote age-related increases in ventilator associated mortality. 2month old and 20month old male C57BL6 mice were mechanically ventilated with either high tidal volume (HVT) or low tidal volume (LVT) for up to 4h with either liberal or conservative fluid support. During ventilation, lung compliance, total lung capacity, and hysteresis curves were quantified. Following ventilation, bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was analyzed for total protein content and inflammatory cell infiltration. Wet to dry ratios were used to directly measure edema in excised lungs. Lung histology was performed to quantify alveolar barrier damage/destruction. Age matched non-ventilated mice were used as controls. At 4h, both advanced age and HVT ventilation significantly increased markers of inflammation and injury, degraded pulmonary mechanics, and decreased survival rates. Conservative fluid support significantly diminished pulmonary edema and improved pulmonary mechanics by 1h in advanced age HVT subjects. In 4h ventilations, conservative fluid support significantly diminished pulmonary edema, improved lung mechanics, and resulted in significantly lower mortality rates in older subjects. Our study demonstrates that conservative fluid alone can attenuate the age associated increase in ventilator associated mortality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conservative Fluid Management Prevents Age-Associated Ventilator Induced Mortality

PubMed Central

Herbert, Joseph A.; Valentine, Michael S.; Saravanan, Nivi; Schneck, Matthew B.; Pidaparti, Ramana; Fowler, Alpha A.; Reynolds, Angela M.; Heise, Rebecca L.

2017-01-01

Background Approximately 800 thousand patients require mechanical ventilation in the United States annually with an in-hospital mortality rate of over 30%. The majority of patients requiring mechanical ventilation are over the age of 65 and advanced age is known to increase the severity of ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI) and in-hosptial mortality rates. However, the mechanisms which predispose aging ventilator patients to increased mortality rates are not fully understood. Ventilation with conservative fluid management decreases mortality rates in acute respiratory distress patients, but to date there has been no investigation of the effect of conservative fluid management on VILI and ventilator associated mortality rates. We hypothesized that age-associated increases in susceptibility and incidence of pulmonary edema strongly promote age-related increases in ventilator associated mortality. Methods 2 month old and 20 month old male C57BL6 mice were mechanically ventilated with either high tidal volume (HVT) or low tidal volume (LVT) for up to 4 hours with either liberal or conservative fluid support. During ventilation, lung compliance, total lung capacity, and hysteresis curves were quantified. Following ventilation, bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was analyzed for total protein content and inflammatory cell infiltration. Wet to dry ratios were used to directly measure edema in excised lungs. Lung histology was performed to quantify alveolar barrier damage/destruction. Age matched non-ventilated mice were used as controls. Results At 4hrs, both advanced age and HVT ventilation significantly increased markers of inflammation and injury, degraded pulmonary mechanics, and decreased survival rates. Conservative fluid support significantly diminished pulmonary edema and improved pulmonary mechanics by 1hr in advanced age HVT subjects. In 4hr ventilations, conservative fluid support significantly diminished pulmonary edema, improved lung mechanics, and resulted in significantly lower mortality rates in older subjects. Conclusion Our study demonstrates that conservative fluid alone can attenuate the age associated increase in ventilator associated mortality. PMID:27188767

Using liver enzymes as screening tests to predict mortality risk.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

2008-01-01

Determine the relationship between liver function test results (GGT, alkaline phosphatase, AST, and ALT) and all-cause mortality in life insurance applicants. By use of the Social Security Master Death File, mortality was examined in 1,905,664 insurance applicants for whom blood samples were submitted to the Clinical Reference Laboratory. There were 50,174 deaths observed in this study population. Results were stratified by 3 age/sex groups: females, age <60; males, age <60; and all, age 60+. Liver function test values were grouped using percentiles of their distribution in these 3 age/sex groups, as well as ranges of actual values. Using the risk of the middle 50% of the population by distribution as a reference, relative mortality observed for GGT and alkaline phosphatase was linear with a steep slope from very low to relatively high values. Relative mortality was increased at lower values for both AST and ALT. ALT did not predict mortality for values above the middle 50% of its distribution. GGT and alkaline phosphatase are significant predictors of mortality risk for all values. ALT is still useful for triggering further testing for hepatitis, but AST should be used instead to assess mortality risk linked with transaminases.

Pregnancy-associated homicide and suicide in 37 US states with enhanced pregnancy surveillance.

PubMed

Wallace, Maeve E; Hoyert, Donna; Williams, Corrine; Mendola, Pauline

2016-09-01

Pregnant and postpartum women may be at increased risk of violent death including homicide and suicide relative to nonpregnant women, but US national data have not been reported since the implementation of enhanced mortality surveillance. The objective of the study was to estimate homicide and suicide ratios among women who are pregnant or postpartum and to compare their risk of violent death with nonpregnant/nonpostpartum women. Death certificates (n = 465,097) from US states with enhanced pregnancy mortality surveillance from 2005 through 2010 were used to compare mortality among 4 groups of women aged 10-54 years: pregnant, early postpartum (pregnant within 42 days of death), late postpartum (pregnant within 43 days to 1 year of death), and nonpregnant/nonpostpartum. We estimated pregnancy-associated mortality ratios and compared with nonpregnant/nonpostpartum mortality ratios to identify differences in risk after adjusting for potential levels of pregnancy misclassification as reported in the literature. Pregnancy-associated homicide victims were most frequently young, black, and undereducated, whereas pregnancy-associated suicide occurred most frequently among older white women. After adjustments, pregnancy-associated homicide risk ranged from 2.2 to 6.2 per 100,000 live births, depending on the degree of misclassification estimated, compared with 2.5-2.6 per 100,000 nonpregnant/nonpostpartum women aged 10-54 years. Pregnancy-associated suicide risk ranged from 1.6-4.5 per 100,000 live births after adjustments compared with 5.3-5.5 per 100,000 women aged 10-54 years among nonpregnant/nonpostpartum women. Assuming the most conservative published estimate of misclassification, the risk of homicide among pregnant/postpartum women was 1.84 times that of nonpregnant/nonpostpartum women (95% confidence interval, 1.71-1.98), whereas risk of suicide was decreased (relative risk, 0.62, 95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.68). Pregnancy and postpartum appear to be times of increased risk for homicide and decreased risk for suicide among women in the United States. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Increased mortality associated with elevated carcinoembryonic antigen in insurance applicants.

PubMed

Stout, Robert L; Fulks, Michael; Dolan, Vera F; Magee, Mark E; Suarez, Luis

2007-01-01

Determine the relationship between the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) value and all-cause mortality in life insurance applicants aged 50 years and over. By use of the Social Security Master Death Index, mortality was examined in 115,590 insurance applicants aged 50 and up for whom blood samples for CEA were submitted to the Clinical Reference Laboratory. Results were stratified by CEA value (<5 ng/mL, 5 to 9.9 ng/mL, 10+ ng/mL), smoking status, and age groups (50-59 years, 60-69 years, and 70 years and up). Relative mortality is increased at CEA values between 5 and 9.9 ng/mL and further increased at 10+ ng/mL for all age groups, with the most dramatic increase at the youngest ages. Excess mortality appears to last at least 3 to 4 years after the elevated result. Five-year all-cause mortality in applicants with CEA values of 10+ ng/mL is 25.2% with a mortality ratio relative to those with a CEA <5 ng/mL of 1156%. This study shows that CEA can detect the risk of early excess mortality in life insurance applicants; CEA levels of 5 ng/mL and over may be of concern. CEA testing beginning at age 50 years for life insurance applicants could capture 4.6% of early mortality if the threshold for further evaluation was set at 10 ng/mL. Only 0.4% of all applicants aged 50 and over have CEA values at or above this threshold.

Host age modulates within-host parasite competition.

PubMed

Izhar, Rony; Routtu, Jarkko; Ben-Ami, Frida

2015-05-01

In many host populations, one of the most striking differences among hosts is their age. While parasite prevalence differences in relation to host age are well known, little is known on how host age impacts ecological and evolutionary dynamics of diseases. Using two clones of the water flea Daphnia magna and two clones of its bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa, we examined how host age at exposure influences within-host parasite competition and virulence. We found that multiply-exposed hosts were more susceptible to infection and suffered higher mortality than singly-exposed hosts. Hosts oldest at exposure were least often infected and vice versa. Furthermore, we found that in young multiply-exposed hosts competition was weak, allowing coexistence and transmission of both parasite clones, whereas in older multiply-exposed hosts competitive exclusion was observed. Thus, age-dependent parasite exposure and host demography (age structure) could together play an important role in mediating parasite evolution. At the individual level, our results demonstrate a previously unnoticed interaction of the host's immune system with host age, suggesting that the specificity of immune function changes as hosts mature. Therefore, evolutionary models of parasite virulence might benefit from incorporating age-dependent epidemiological parameters. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Sex- and age-dependent patterns of survival and breeding success in a long-lived endangered avian scavenger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; Cortés-Avizanda, Ainara; Serrano, David; Blanco, Guillermo; Ceballos, Olga; Grande, Juan M.; Tella, José L.; Donázar, José A.

2017-01-01

In long-lived species, the age-, stage- and/or sex-dependent patterns of survival and reproduction determine the evolution of life history strategies, the shape of the reproductive value, and ultimately population dynamics. We evaluate the combined effects of age and sex in recruitment, breeder survival and breeding success of the globally endangered Egyptian vulture (Neophron percnopterus), using 31-years of exhaustive data on marked individuals in Spain. Mean age of first reproduction was 7-yrs for both sexes, but females showed an earlier median and a larger variance than males. We found an age-related improvement in breeding success at the population level responding to the selective appearance and disappearance of phenotypes of different quality but unrelated to within-individual aging effects. Old males (≥8 yrs) showed a higher survival than both young males (≤7 yrs) and females, these later in turn not showing aging effects. Evolutionary trade-offs between age of recruitment and fitness (probably related to costs of territory acquisition and defense) as well as human-related mortality may explain these findings. Sex- and age-related differences in foraging strategies and susceptibility to toxics could be behind the relatively low survival of females and young males, adding a new concern for the conservation of this endangered species.

Male breast cancer: a nation-wide population-based comparison with female breast cancer.

PubMed

Lautrup, Marianne D; Thorup, Signe S; Jensen, Vibeke; Bokmand, Susanne; Haugaard, Karen; Hoejris, Inger; Jylling, Anne-Marie B; Joernsgaard, Hjoerdis; Lelkaitis, Giedrius; Oldenburg, Mette H; Qvamme, Gro M; Soee, Katrine; Christiansen, Peer

2018-05-01

Describe prognostic parameters of Danish male breast cancer patients (MBCP) diagnosed from 1980-2009. Determine all-cause mortality compared to the general male population and analyze survival/mortality compared with Danish female breast cancer patients (FBCP) in the same period. The MBCP cohort was defined from three national registers. Data was extracted from medical journals. Data for FBCP is from the DBCG database. Overall survival (OS) was quantified by Kaplan-Meier estimates. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated based on mortality rate among patients relative to the mortality rate in the general population. The association between SMR and risk factors were analyzed in univariate and multivariable Poisson regression models. Separate models for each gender were used for the analyses. We found a marked difference in OS for the two genders. For the total population of MBCP, 5- and 10-year survivals were 55.1% and 31.7%, respectively. For FBCP, the corresponding figures were 76.8% and 59.3%. Median age at diagnosis for FBCP was 61 years and 70 years for MBCP. By applying SMR, the difference in mortality between genders equalized and showed pronounced age-dependency. For males <40 years, SMR was 9.43 and for females 19.56 compared to SMR for males 80 + years (0.95) and females 80 + years (0.89). During the period 1980-2009, the risk of dying gradually decreased for FBCP (p < .0001). The risk 1980-1984 was 35% higher than 2005-2009 (RR 1.35). Although the risk of dying for MBCP was also lowest in 2005-2009, there was no clear tendency (p = .1439). The risk was highest in 1990-1994 (RR =2.48). We found better OS for FBCP than for MBCP. But SMR showed similar mortality rate for the two genders, except for very young FBCP, who had higher SMR. Furthermore, significantly improved survival over time for FBCP was observed, with no clear tendency for MBCP.

Enhanced Estimates of the Influenza Vaccination Effect in Preventing Mortality

PubMed Central

Castilla, Jesús; Guevara, Marcela; Martínez-Baz, Iván; Ezpeleta, Carmen; Delfrade, Josu; Irisarri, Fátima; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi

2015-01-01

Abstract Mortality is a major end-point in the evaluation of influenza vaccine effectiveness. However, this effect is not well known, since most previous studies failed to show good control of biases. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing all-cause mortality in community-dwelling seniors. Since 2009, a population-based cohort study using healthcare databases has been conducted in Navarra, Spain. In 2 late influenza seasons, 2011/2012 and 2012/2013, all-cause mortality in the period January to May was compared between seniors (65 years or over) who received the trivalent influenza vaccine and those who were unvaccinated, adjusting for demographics, major chronic conditions, dependence, previous hospitalization, and pneumococcal vaccination. The cohort included 103,156 seniors in the 2011/2012 season and 105,140 in the 2012/2013 season (58% vaccinated). Seniors vaccinated in the previous season who discontinued vaccination (6% of the total) had excess mortality and were excluded to prevent frailty bias. The final analysis included 80,730 person-years and 2778 deaths. Vaccinated seniors had 16% less all-cause mortality than those unvaccinated (adjusted rate ratio [RR] = 0.84; 95% confidence interval 0.76–0.93). This association disappeared in the post-influenza period (adjusted RR = 0.96; 95% confidence interval 0.85–1.09). A similar comparison did not find an association in January to May of the 2009/2010 pandemic season (adjusted RR = 0.98; 95% confidence interval 0.84–1.14), when no effect of the seasonal vaccine was expected. On average, 1 death was prevented for every 328 seniors vaccinated: 1 for every 649 in the 65 to 74 year age group and 1 for every 251 among those aged 75 and over. These results suggest a moderate preventive effect and a high potential impact of the seasonal influenza vaccine against all-cause mortality. This reinforces the recommendation of annual influenza vaccination in seniors. PMID:26222861

The Cedar Project: mortality among young Indigenous people who use drugs in British Columbia

PubMed Central

Jongbloed, Kate; Pearce, Margo E.; Pooyak, Sherri; Zamar, David; Thomas, Vicky; Demerais, Lou; Christian, Wayne M.; Henderson, Earl; Sharma, Richa; Blair, Alden H.; Yoshida, Eric M.; Schechter, Martin T.; Spittal, Patricia M.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Young Indigenous people, particularly those involved in the child welfare system, those entrenched in substance use and those living with HIV or hepatitis C, are dying prematurely. We report mortality rates among young Indigenous people who use drugs in British Columbia and explore predictors of mortality over time. METHODS: We analyzed data collected every 6 months between 2003 and 2014 by the Cedar Project, a prospective cohort study involving young Indigenous people who use illicit drugs in Vancouver and Prince George, BC. We calculated age-standardized mortality ratios using Indigenous and Canadian reference populations. We identified predictors of mortality using time-dependent Cox proportional hazard regression. RESULTS: Among 610 participants, 40 died between 2003 and 2014, yielding a mortality rate of 670 per 100 000 person-years. Young Indigenous people who used drugs were 12.9 (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.2–17.5) times more likely to die than all Canadians the same age and were 7.8 (95% CI 5.6–10.6) times more likely to die than Indigenous people with Status in BC. Young women and those using drugs by injection were most affected. The leading causes of death were overdose (n = 15 [38%]), illness (n = 11 [28%]) and suicide (n = 5 [12%]). Predictors of mortality included having hepatitis C at baseline (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.76, 95% CI 1.47–5.16), previous attempted suicide (adjusted HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.01–3.50) and recent overdose (adjusted HR 2.85, 95% CI 1.00–8.09). INTERPRETATION: Young Indigenous people using drugs in BC are dying at an alarming rate, particularly young women and those using injection drugs. These deaths likely reflect complex intersections of historical and present-day injustices, substance use and barriers to care. PMID:29109208

Age and sex of surgeons and mortality of older surgical patients: observational study

PubMed Central

Jena, Anupam B; Orav, E John; Blumenthal, Daniel M; Tsai, Thomas C; Mehtsun, Winta T; Jha, Ashish K

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To investigate whether patients’ mortality differs according to the age and sex of surgeons. Design Observational study. Setting US acute care hospitals. Participants 100% of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65-99 years who underwent one of 20 major non-elective surgeries between 2011 and 2014. Main outcome measure Operative mortality rate of patients, defined as death during hospital admission or within 30 days of the operative procedure, after adjustment for patients’ and surgeons’ characteristics and indicator variables for hospitals. Results 892 187 patients who were treated by 45 826 surgeons were included. Patients’ mortality was lower for older surgeons than for younger surgeons: the adjusted operative mortality rates were 6.6% (95% confidence interval 6.5% to 6.7%), 6.5% (6.4% to 6.6%), 6.4% (6.3% to 6.5%), and 6.3% (6.2% to 6.5%) for surgeons aged under 40 years, 40-49 years, 50-59 years, and 60 years or over, respectively (P for trend=0.001). There was no evidence that adjusted operative mortality differed between patients treated by female versus male surgeons (adjusted mortality 6.3% for female surgeons versus 6.5% for male surgeons; adjusted odds ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.93 to 1.01). After stratification by sex of surgeon, patients’ mortality declined with age of surgeon for both male and female surgeons (except for female surgeons aged 60 or older); female surgeons in their 50s had the lowest operative mortality. Conclusion Using national data on Medicare beneficiaries in the US, this study found that patients treated by older surgeons had lower mortality than patients treated by younger surgeons. There was no evidence that operative mortality differed between male and female surgeons. PMID:29695473

Premature mortality in the U.S.-- trends by race, ethnicity, age, and region

Cancer.gov

DCEG scientists are spearheading the Premature Mortality Project—an interdisciplinary, multi-institutional effort to characterize U.S. trends in premature mortality. In the process, the team has uncovered distinct mortality trends by race, ethnicity, age, and region, and provided crucial information about the ongoing,

Interactions between hatch dates, growth rates, and mortality of Age-0 native Rainbow Smelt and nonnative Alewife in Lake Champlain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrish, Donna; Simonin, Paul W.; Rudstam, Lars G.; Pientka, Bernard; Sullivan, Patrick J.

2016-01-01

Timing of hatch in fish populations can be critical for first-year survival and, therefore, year-class strength and subsequent species interactions. We compared hatch timing, growth rates, and subsequent mortality of age-0 Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax and Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus, two common open-water fish species of northern North America. In our study site, Lake Champlain, Rainbow Smelt hatched (beginning May 26) almost a month earlier than Alewives (June 20). Abundance in the sampling area was highest in July for age-0 Rainbow Smelt and August for age-0 Alewives. Late-hatching individuals of both species grew faster than those hatching earlier (0.6 mm/d versus 0.4 for Rainbow Smelt; 0.7 mm/d versus 0.6 for Alewives). Mean mortality rate during the first 45 d of life was 3.4%/d for age-0 Rainbow Smelt and was 5.5%/d for age-0 Alewives. Alewife mortality rates did not differ with hatch timing but daily mortality rates of Rainbow Smelt were highest for early-hatching fish. Cannibalism is probably the primary mortality source for age-0 Rainbow Smelt in this lake. Therefore, hatching earlier may not be advantageous because the overlap of adult and age-0 Rainbow Smelt is highest earlier in the season. However, Alewives, first documented in Lake Champlain in 2003, may increase the mortality of age-0 Rainbow Smelt in the summer, which should favor selection for earlier hatching.

Inequalities in premature mortality in Britain: observational study from 1921 to 2007.

PubMed

Thomas, Bethan; Dorling, Danny; Smith, George Davey

2010-07-22

To report on the extent of inequality in premature mortality as measured between geographical areas in Britain. Observational study of routinely collected mortality data and public records. Population subdivided by age, sex, and geographical area (parliamentary constituencies from 1991 to2007, pre-1974 local authorities over a longer time span). Great Britain. Entire population aged under 75 from 1990 to 2007, and entire population aged under 65 in the periods 1921-39, 1950-3, 1959-63, 1969-73, and 1981-2007. Relative index of inequality (RII) and ratios of inequality in age-sex standardised mortality ratios under ages 75 and 65. The relative index of inequality is the relative rate of mortality for the hypothetically worst-off compared with the hypothetically best-off person in the population, assuming a linear association between socioeconomic position and risk of mortality. The ratio of inequality is the ratio of the standardised mortality ratio of the most deprived 10% to the least deprived 10%. When measured by the relative index of inequality, geographical inequalities in age-sex standardised rates of mortality below age 75 have increased every two years from 1990-1 to 2006-7 without exception. Over this period the relative index of inequality increased from 1.61 (95% confidence interval 1.52 to 1.69) in 1990-1 to 2.14 (2.02 to 2.27) in 2006-7. Simple ratios indicated a brief period around 2001 when a small reduction in inequality was recorded, but this was quickly reversed and inequalities up to the age of 75 have now reached the highest levels reported since at least 1990. Similarly, inequalities in mortality ratios under the age of 65 improved slightly in the early years of this century but the latest figures surpass the most extreme previously reported. Comparison of crudely age-sex standardised rates for those below age 65 from historical records showed that geographical inequalities in mortality are higher in the most recent decade than in any similar time period for which records are available since at least 1921. Inequalities in premature mortality between areas of Britain continued to rise steadily during the first decade of the 21st century. The last time in the long economic record that inequalities were almost as high was in the lead up to the economic crash of 1929 and the economic depression of the 1930s. The economic crash of 2008 might precede even greater inequalities in mortality between areas in Britain.

Age at menarche, total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke: the Adventist Health Study, 1976–88

PubMed Central

Jacobsen, B K; Oda, K; Knutsen, S F; Fraser, G E

2009-01-01

Background Little is known about the relationship between age at menarche and total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke. Methods A cohort study of 19 462 Californian Seventh-Day Adventist women followed-up from 1976 to 1988. A total of 3313 deaths occurred during follow-up, of which 809 were due to ischaemic heart disease and 378 due to stroke. Results An early menarche was associated with increased total mortality (P-value for linear trend <0.001), ischaemic heart disease (P-value for linear trend = 0.01) and stroke (P-value for linear trend = 0.02) mortality. There were, however, also some indications of an increased ischaemic heart disease mortality in women aged 16–18 at menarche (5% of the women). When assessed as a linear relationship, a 1-year delay in menarche was associated with 4.5% (95% CI 2.3–6.7) lower total mortality. The association was stronger for ischaemic heart disease [6.0% (95% CI 1.2–10.6)] and stroke [8.6% (95% CI 1.6–15.1)] mortality. Conclusions The results suggest that there is a linear, inverse relationship between age at menarche and total mortality as well as with ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality. PMID:19188208

Age at menarche, total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke: the Adventist Health Study, 1976-88.

PubMed

Jacobsen, B K; Oda, K; Knutsen, S F; Fraser, G E

2009-02-01

Little is known about the relationship between age at menarche and total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke. A cohort study of 19 462 Californian Seventh-Day Adventist women followed-up from 1976 to 1988. A total of 3313 deaths occurred during follow-up, of which 809 were due to ischaemic heart disease and 378 due to stroke. An early menarche was associated with increased total mortality (P-value for linear trend <0.001), ischaemic heart disease (P-value for linear trend = 0.01) and stroke (P-value for linear trend = 0.02) mortality. There were, however, also some indications of an increased ischaemic heart disease mortality in women aged 16-18 at menarche (5% of the women). When assessed as a linear relationship, a 1-year delay in menarche was associated with 4.5% (95% CI 2.3-6.7) lower total mortality. The association was stronger for ischaemic heart disease [6.0% (95% CI 1.2-10.6)] and stroke [8.6% (95% CI 1.6-15.1)] mortality. The results suggest that there is a linear, inverse relationship between age at menarche and total mortality as well as with ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality.

Contribution of different causes of death to socioeconomic mortality inequality in Korean children aged 1-9: findings from a national mortality follow-up study.

PubMed

Jung-Choi, K; Khang, Y H

2011-02-01

To determine the contribution of different causes of death to absolute socioeconomic inequalities in mortality for the whole population of children of South Korea aged 1-4 years and 5-9 years. A cohort study based on the national birth and death registers of Korea was performed for 3,724,347 children born in 1995-2000 and 657,209 children born in 1995 to analyse mortality among children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years old, respectively. Adjusted mortality, risk difference (RD), slope index of inequality (SII), RR and relative index of inequality were calculated. The contributions of different causes of death to absolute mortality inequalities were calculated as percentages based on RD and SII. Injuries other than from transport accidents contributed the most to total SIIs for male deaths at ages 1-4 (30.0% for father's education). The second largest contribution was from transport accident injuries (19.6% for father's education). For male deaths at ages 5-9, transport accident injuries and other injuries also accounted for most of the educational and occupational differentials in absolute mortality (63.5-90.5%). Patterns in cause-specific contribution to total inequalities in mortality among girls were generally similar to those among boys. The major contributing causes to absolute socioeconomic inequality in all-cause mortality for children aged 1-9 were external. To reduce the absolute magnitude of socioeconomic inequalities in childhood mortality, policy efforts should be directed towards injury prevention and treatment in South Korea.

Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements

PubMed Central

Egondi, Thaddaeus; Kyobutungi, Catherine; Kovats, Sari; Muindi, Kanyiva; Ettarh, Remare; Rocklöv, Joacim

2012-01-01

Background Many studies have established a link between weather (primarily temperature) and daily mortality in developed countries. However, little is known about this relationship in urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Objectives The objective of this study was to describe the relationship between daily weather and mortality in Nairobi, Kenya, and to evaluate this relationship with regard to cause of death, age, and sex. Methods We utilized mortality data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System and applied time-series models to study the relationship between daily weather and mortality for a population of approximately 60,000 during the period 2003–2008. We used a distributed lag approach to model the delayed effect of weather on mortality, stratified by cause of death, age, and sex. Results Increasing temperatures (above 75th percentile) were significantly associated with mortality in children and non-communicable disease (NCD) deaths. We found all-cause mortality of shorter lag of same day and previous day to increase by 3.0% for a 1 degree decrease from the 25th percentile of 18°C (not statistically significant). Mortality among people aged 50+ and children aged below 5 years appeared most susceptible to cold compared to other age groups. Rainfall, in the lag period of 0–29 days, increased all-cause mortality in general, but was found strongest related to mortality among females. Low temperatures were associated with deaths due to acute infections, whereas rainfall was associated with all-cause pneumonia and NCD deaths. Conclusions Increases in mortality were associated with both hot and cold weather as well as rainfall in Nairobi, but the relationship differed with regard to age, sex, and cause of death. Our findings indicate that weather-related mortality is a public health concern for the population in the informal settlements of Nairobi, Kenya, especially if current trends in climate change continue. PMID:23195509

Associations of marital status with mortality from all causes and mortality from cardiovascular disease in Japanese haemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Tanno, Kozo; Ohsawa, Masaki; Itai, Kazuyoshi; Kato, Karen; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Onoda, Toshiyuki; Sakata, Kiyomi; Okayama, Akira; Fujioka, Tomoaki

2013-04-01

Marital status is an important social factor associated with increased mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all causes. However, there has been no study on the association of marital status with mortality in haemodialysis patients. We analysed data from a 5-year prospective cohort study of 1064 Japanese haemodialysis patients aged 30 years or older. Marital status was classified into three groups: married, single and divorced/widowed. Cox's regression was used to estimate multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] for all-cause mortality and CVD mortality according to marital status after adjusting for age, sex, duration of haemodialysis, cause of renal failure, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein-cholesterol, albumin, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, co-morbid conditions, smoking, alcohol consumption, education levels and job status. Single patients had higher risks than married patients for mortality from all causes (HR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.06-2.16) and mortality from CVD (HR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.03-2.76), and divorced/widowed patients had a higher risk than married patients for mortality from CVD (HR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.15-2.60). After stratification by age, single patients aged 30-59 years had significantly higher risks for all-cause mortality and CVD mortality. The findings suggest that single status is a significant predictor for all-cause mortality and CVD mortality and that divorced/widowed status is a significant predictor for CVD mortality in haemodialysis patients.

Age-Dependent Association Between Pre-transplant Blood Transfusion and Outcomes of Pediatric Heart Transplantation.

PubMed

McKee, C; Tumin, D; Alevriadou, B R; Nicol, K K; Yates, A R; Hayes, D; Tobias, J D

2018-04-01

Avoidance of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in patients awaiting heart transplantation (HTx) has been suggested to minimize the risk of allosensitization. Although recent studies have suggested that an immature immune system in younger HTx recipients may reduce risks associated with RBC transfusion, the role of age in moderating the influence of transfusion on HTx outcomes remains unclear. We used available data from a national transplant registry to explore whether the association between pre-transplant transfusions and outcomes of pediatric HTx varies by patient age. De-identified data were obtained from the United Network for Organ Sharing registry, including first-time recipients of isolated HTx performed at age 0-17 years in 1995-2015. The primary exposure was receiving blood transfusions within 2 weeks prior to HTx. Patient survival after HTx was evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards, where age at transplant was interacted with exposure to pre-transplant transfusion. Age-specific hazard ratios (HRs) of pre-transplant transfusion were plotted across ages at transplant. There were 4883 patients meeting inclusion criteria, of whom 1258 died during follow-up (mean follow-up duration 6 ± 5 years). Patients receiving pre-transplant transfusions were distinguished by younger age, higher prevalence of prior cardiac surgery, greater likelihood of being in the intensive care unit, and greater use of left ventricular assist device bridge to transplant. In multivariable analysis, pre-transplant transfusions were associated with increased mortality hazard among infants < 1 year of age (HR = 1.46; 95% CI 1.23, 1.74; p < 0.001). For each additional year of age, the excess hazard associated with pre-transplant transfusions decreased by 3% (interaction HR = 0.97; 95% CI 0.98, 0.99; p = 0.003). By age 8, the association between pre-transplant transfusions and post-transplant mortality was no longer statistically significant (HR = 1.15; 95% CI 0.99, 1.32; p = 0.060). Pre-transplant transfusions were associated with increased mortality hazard only among younger children (age < 8 years) undergoing HTx. These data support the current practices of transfusion avoidance prior to HTx, particularly in younger patients.

Multivariate analysis of infant death in England and Wales in 2005-06, with focus on socio-economic status and deprivation.

PubMed

Oakley, Laura; Maconochie, Noreen; Doyle, Pat; Dattani, Nirupa; Moser, Kath

2009-01-01

Current health inequality targets include the goal of reducing the differential in infant mortality between social groups. This article reports on a multivariate analysis of risk factors for infant mortality, with specific focus on deprivation and socio-economic status. Data on all singleton live births in England and Wales in 2005-06 were used, and deprivation quintile (Carstairs index) was assigned to each birth using postcode at birth registration. Deprivation had a strong independent effect on infant mortality, risk of death tending to increase with increasing levels of deprivation. The strength of this relationship depended, however, on whether the babies were low birthweight, preterm or small-for-gestational-age. Trends of increasing mortality risk with increasing deprivation were strongest in the postneonatal period. Uniquely, this article reports the number and proportion of all infant deaths which would potentially be avoided if all levels of deprivation were reduced to that of the least deprived group. It estimates that one quarter of all infant deaths would potentially be avoided if deprivation levels were reduced in this way.

DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death.

PubMed

Chen, Brian H; Marioni, Riccardo E; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S; Just, Allan C; Demerath, Ellen W; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Murabito, Joanne M; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C; Price, Timothy R; Singleton, Andrew B; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R; McRae, Allan F; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E; Lu, Ake T; Tsao, Philip S; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E; Carty, Cara L; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Reiner, Alexander P; Spector, Tim D; Feinberg, Andrew P; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J; Pankow, James S; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

2016-09-28

Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as "epigenetic age", "DNAm age", have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2x10 -9 ) , independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4x10 -4 ) , and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5x10 -43 ). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality.

Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals.

PubMed

Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A; McGregor, G R

2017-11-15

Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc., depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most hazardous conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cervical cancer incidence and mortality in Fiji 2003-2009.

PubMed

Kuehn, Rebecca; Fong, James; Taylor, Richard; Gyaneshwar, Rajanishwar; Carter, Karen

2012-08-01

Previous studies indicate that cervical cancer is the second most frequent cancer and most common cause of cancer mortality among women in Fiji. There is little published data on the epidemiology of cervical cancer in Pacific countries. To determine the incidence 2003-2009 of, and mortality 2003-2008 from, cervical cancer by ethnicity and period in Fiji, identify evidence of secular change and relate these data to other Pacific countries, Australia and New Zealand. Counts of incident cervical cancer cases (2003-2009) and unit record mortality data (2003-2008) from the Fiji Ministry of Health were used to calculate age-standardised (to the WHO World Population) cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates, and cervical or uterine cancer mortality rates, by ethnicity, with 95% confidence intervals. On the basis of comparison of cervical cancer mortality with cervical or uterine cancer mortality in Fiji with similar populations, misclassification of cervical cancer deaths is unlikely. There is no evidence of secular change in cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates for the study period. For women of all ages and ethnicities, the age-standardised incidence rate of cervical cancer (2003-2009) was 27.6 per 100,000 (95% CI 25.4-29.8) and the age-standardised mortality rate (2003-2008) was 23.9 per 100,000 (95% CI 21.5-26.4). The mortality/incidence ratio was 87%. Fijians had statistically significant higher age-standardised incidence and mortality rates than Indians. Fiji has one of the highest estimated rates of cervical cancer incidence and mortality in the Pacific region. Cervical cancer screening in Fiji needs to be expanded and strengthened. © 2012 The Authors ANZJOG © 2012 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Assessing predicted age-specific breast cancer mortality rates in 27 European countries by 2020.

PubMed

Clèries, R; Rooney, R M; Vilardell, M; Espinàs, J A; Dyba, T; Borras, J M

2018-03-01

We assessed differences in predicted breast cancer (BC) mortality rates, across Europe, by 2020, taking into account changes in the time trends of BC mortality rates during the period 2000-2010. BC mortality data, for 27 European Union (EU) countries, were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. First, we compared BC mortality data between time periods 2000-2004 and 2006-2010 through standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and carrying out a graphical assessment of the age-specific rates. Second, making use of the base period 2006-2012, we predicted BC mortality rates by 2020. Finally, making use of the SMRs and the predicted data, we identified a clustering of countries, assessing differences in the time trends between the areas defined in this clustering. The clustering approach identified two clusters of countries: the first cluster were countries where BC predicted mortality rates, in 2020, might slightly increase among women aged 69 and older compared with 2010 [Greece (SMR 1.01), Croatia (SMR 1.02), Latvia (SMR 1.15), Poland (SMR 1.14), Estonia (SMR 1.16), Bulgaria (SMR 1.13), Lithuania (SMR 1.03), Romania (SMR 1.13) and Slovakia (SMR 1.06)]. The second cluster was those countries where BC mortality rates level off or decrease in all age groups (remaining countries). However, BC mortality rates between these clusters might diminish and converge to similar figures by 2020. For the year 2020, our predictions have shown a converging pattern of BC mortality rates between European regions. Reducing disparities, in access to screening and treatment, could have a substantial effect in countries where a non-decreasing trend in age-specific BC mortality rates has been predicted.

The compression of deaths above the mode.

PubMed

Thatcher, A Roger; Cheung, Siu Lan K; Horiuchi, Shiro; Robine, Jean-Marie

2010-03-26

Kannisto (2001) has shown that as the frequency distribution of ages at death has shifted to the right, the age distribution of deaths above the modal age has become more compressed. In order to further investigate this old-age mortality compression, we adopt the simple logistic model with two parameters, which is known to fit data on old-age mortality well (Thatcher 1999). Based on the model, we show that three key measures of old-age mortality (the modal age of adult deaths, the life expectancy at the modal age, and the standard deviation of ages at death above the mode) can be estimated fairly accurately from death rates at only two suitably chosen high ages (70 and 90 in this study). The distribution of deaths above the modal age becomes compressed when the logits of death rates fall more at the lower age than at the higher age. Our analysis of mortality time series in six countries, using the logistic model, endorsed Kannisto's conclusion. Some possible reasons for the compression are discussed.

Alcohol Tax Policy and Related Mortality. An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of a Rapidly Developed Chinese Population, 1981–2010

PubMed Central

Chung, Roger Y.; Kim, Jean H.; Yip, Benjamin H.; Wong, Samuel Y. S.; Wong, Martin C. S.; Chung, Vincent C. H.; Griffiths, Sian M.

2014-01-01

To delineate the temporal dynamics between alcohol tax policy changes and related health outcomes, this study examined the age, period and cohort effects on alcohol-related mortality in relation to changes in government alcohol policies. We used the age-period-cohort modeling to analyze retrospective mortality data over 30 years from 1981 to 2010 in a rapidly developed Chinese population, Hong Kong. Alcohol-related mortality from 1) chronic causes, 2) acute causes, 3) all (chronic+acute) causes and 4) causes 100% attributable to alcohol, as defined according to the Alcohol-Related Disease Impact (ARDI) criteria developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, were examined. The findings illustrated the possible effects of alcohol policy changes on adult alcohol-related mortality. The age-standardized mortality trends were generally in decline, with fluctuations that coincided with the timing of the alcohol policy changes. The age-period-cohort analyses demonstrated possible temporal dynamics between alcohol policy changes and alcohol-related mortality through the period effects, and also generational impact of alcohol policy changes through the cohort effects. Based on the illustrated association between the dramatic increase of alcohol imports in the mid-1980s and the increased alcohol-related mortality risk of the generations coming of age of majority at that time, attention should be paid to generations coming of drinking age during the 2007–2008 duty reduction. PMID:25153324

Study of colorectal mortality in the Andalusian population.

PubMed

Cayuela, A; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; Garzón-Benavides, M; Pizarro-Moreno, A; Giráldez-Gallego, A; Cordero-Fernández, C

2011-06-01

to provide up-to-date information and to analyze recent changes in colorectal cancer mortality trends in Andalusia during the period of 1980-2008 using joinpoint regression models. age- and sex-specific colorectal cancer deaths were taken from the official vital statistics published by the Instituto de Estadística de Andalucía for the years 1980 to 2008. We computed age-specific rates for each 5-year age group and calendar year and age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 men and women. A joinpoint regression analysis was used for trend analysis of standardized rates. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the years when a significant change in the linear slope of the temporal trend occurred. The best fitting points (the "join-points") are chosen where the rate significantly changes. mortality from colorectal cancer in Andalusia during the period studied has increased, from 277 deaths in 1980 to 1,227 in 2008 in men, and from 333 to 805 deaths in women. Adjusted overall colorectal cancer mortality rates increased from 7.7 to 17.0 deaths per 100,000 person-years in men and from 6.6 to 9.0 per 100,000 person-years in women Changes in mortality did not evolve similarly for men and women. Age-specific CRC mortality rates are lower in women than in men, which imply that women reach comparable levels of colorectal cancer mortality at higher ages than men. sex differences for colorectal cancer mortality have been widening in the last decade in Andalusia. In spite of the decreasing trends in age-adjusted mortality rates in women, incidence rates and the absolute numbers of deaths are still increasing, largely because of the aging of the population. Consequently, colorectal cancer still has a large impact on health care services, and this impact will continue to increase for many more years.

Size of age-0 crappies (Pomoxis spp.) relative to reservoir habitats and water levels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaczka, Levi J.; Miranda, Leandro E.

2014-01-01

Variable year-class strength is common in crappie Pomoxis spp. populations in many reservoirs, yet the mechanisms behind this variability are poorly understood. Size-dependent mortality of age-0 fishes has long been recognized in the population ecology literature; however, investigations about the effects of environmental factors on age-0 crappie size are lacking. The objective of this study was to determine if differences existed in total length of age-0 crappies between embayment and floodplain habitats in reservoirs, while accounting for potential confounding effects of water level and crappie species. To this end, we examined size of age-0 crappies in four flood-control reservoirs in northwest Mississippi over 4years. Age-0 crappies inhabiting uplake floodplain habitats grew to a larger size than fish in downlake embayments, but this trend depended on species, length of time a reservoir was dewatered in the months preceding spawning, and reservoir water level in the months following spawning. The results from our study indicate that water-level management may focus not only on allowing access to quality nursery habitat, but that alternating water levels on a multiyear schedule could increase the quality of degraded littoral habitats.

Ambulatory hypertension subtypes and 24-hour systolic and diastolic blood pressure as distinct outcome predictors in 8341 untreated people recruited from 12 populations.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Wei, Fang-Fei; Thijs, Lutgarde; Boggia, José; Asayama, Kei; Hansen, Tine W; Kikuya, Masahiro; Björklund-Bodegård, Kristina; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Gu, Yu-Mei; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Dolan, Eamon; Liu, Yan-Ping; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Tikhonoff, Valérie; Malyutina, Sofia; Casiglia, Edoardo; Nikitin, Yuri; Lind, Lars; Sandoya, Edgardo; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina; Mena, Luis; Maestre, Gladys E; Filipovský, Jan; Imai, Yutaka; O'Brien, Eoin; Wang, Ji-Guang; Staessen, Jan A

2014-08-05

Data on risk associated with 24-hour ambulatory diastolic (DBP24) versus systolic (SBP24) blood pressure are scarce. We recorded 24-hour blood pressure and health outcomes in 8341 untreated people (mean age, 50.8 years; 46.6% women) randomly recruited from 12 populations. We computed hazard ratios (HRs) using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Over 11.2 years (median), 927 (11.1%) participants died, 356 (4.3%) from cardiovascular causes, and 744 (8.9%) experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular event. Isolated diastolic hypertension (DBP24≥80 mm Hg) did not increase the risk of total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, or stroke (HRs≤1.54; P≥0.18), but was associated with a higher risk of fatal combined with nonfatal cardiovascular, cardiac, or coronary events (HRs≥1.75; P≤0.0054). Isolated systolic hypertension (SBP24≥130 mm Hg) and mixed diastolic plus systolic hypertension were associated with increased risks of all aforementioned end points (P≤0.0012). Below age 50, DBP24 was the main driver of risk, reaching significance for total (HR for 1-SD increase, 2.05; P=0.0039) and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 4.07; P=0.0032) and for all cardiovascular end points combined (HR, 1.74; P=0.039) with a nonsignificant contribution of SBP24 (HR≤0.92; P≥0.068); above age 50, SBP24 predicted all end points (HR≥1.19; P≤0.0002) with a nonsignificant contribution of DBP24 (0.96≤HR≤1.14; P≥0.10). The interactions of age with SBP24 and DBP24 were significant for all cardiovascular and coronary events (P≤0.043). The risks conferred by DBP24 and SBP24 are age dependent. DBP24 and isolated diastolic hypertension drive coronary complications below age 50, whereas above age 50 SBP24 and isolated systolic and mixed hypertension are the predominant risk factors. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Ambulatory Hypertension Subtypes and 24-Hour Systolic and Diastolic Blood Pressure as Distinct Outcome Predictors in 8341 Untreated People Recruited From 12 Populations

PubMed Central

Li, Yan; Wei, Fang-Fei; Thijs, Lutgarde; Boggia, José; Asayama, Kei; Hansen, Tine W.; Kikuya, Masahiro; Björklund-Bodegård, Kristina; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Gu, Yu-Mei; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Dolan, Eamon; Liu, Yan-Ping; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Tikhonoff, Valérie; Malyutina, Sofia; Casiglia, Edoardo; Nikitin, Yuri; Lind, Lars; Sandoya, Edgardo; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina; Mena, Luis; Maestre, Gladys E.; Filipovský, Jan; Imai, Yutaka; O’Brien, Eoin; Wang, Ji-Guang; Staessen, Jan A.

2015-01-01

Background Data on risk associated with 24-hour ambulatory diastolic (DBP24) versus systolic (SBP24) blood pressure are scarce. Methods and Results We recorded 24-hour blood pressure and health outcomes in 8341 untreated people (mean age, 50.8 years; 46.6% women) randomly recruited from 12 populations. We computed hazard ratios (HRs) using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Over 11.2 years (median), 927 (11.1%) participants died, 356 (4.3%) from cardiovascular causes, and 744 (8.9%) experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular event. Isolated diastolic hypertension (DBP24≥80 mm Hg) did not increase the risk of total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, or stroke (HRs≤1.54; P≥0.18), but was associated with a higher risk of fatal combined with nonfatal cardiovascular, cardiac, or coronary events (HRs≥1.75; P≤0.0054). Isolated systolic hypertension (SBP24≥130 mm Hg) and mixed diastolic plus systolic hypertension were associated with increased risks of all aforementioned end points (P≤0.0012). Below age 50, DBP24 was the main driver of risk, reaching significance for total (HR for 1-SD increase, 2.05; P=0.0039) and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 4.07; P=0.0032) and for all cardiovascular end points combined (HR, 1.74; P=0.039) with a nonsignificant contribution of SBP24 (HR≤0.92; P≥0.068); above age 50, SBP24 predicted all end points (HR≥1.19; P≤0.0002) with a nonsignificant contribution of DBP24 (0.96≤HR≤1.14; P≥0.10). The interactions of age with SBP24 and DBP24 were significant for all cardiovascular and coronary events (P≤0.043). Conclusions The risks conferred by DBP24 and SBP24 are age dependent. DBP24 and isolated diastolic hypertension drive coronary complications below age 50, whereas above age 50 SBP24 and isolated systolic and mixed hypertension are the predominant risk factors. PMID:24906822

Risk factors in surgical management of thoracic empyema in elderly patients.

PubMed

Hsieh, Ming-Ju; Liu, Yun-Hen; Chao, Yin-Kai; Lu, Ming-Shian; Liu, Hui-Ping; Wu, Yi-Cheng; Lu, Hung-I; Chu, Yen

2008-06-01

Although elderly patients with thoracic disease were considered to be poor candidates for thoracotomy before, recent advances in preoperative and postoperative care as well as surgical techniques have improved outcomes of thoracotomies in this patient group. The aim of this study was to investigate surgical risk factors and results in elderly patients (aged > or =70 years) with thoracic empyema. Seventy-one elderly patients with empyema thoracis were enrolled and evaluated from July 2000 to April 2003. The following characteristics and clinical data were analysed: age, sex, aetiology of empyema, comorbid diseases, preoperative conditions, postoperative days of intubation, length of hospital stay after surgery, complications and mortality. Surgical intervention, including total pneumonolysis and evacuation of the pleura empyema cavity, was carried out in all patients. Possible influent risk factors on the outcome were analysed. The sample group included 54 men and 17 women with an average age of 76.8 years. The causes of empyema included parapneumonic effusion (n = 43), lung abscess (n = 8), necrotizing pneumonitis (n = 8), malignancy (n = 5), cirrhosis (n = 2), oesophageal perforation (n = 2), post-traumatic empyema (n = 2) and post-thoracotomy complication (n = 1). The 30-day mortality rate was 11.3% and the in-hospital mortality rate was 18.3% (13 of 71). Mean follow up was 9.4 months and mean duration of postoperative hospitalization was 35.8 days. Analysis of risk factors showed that patients with necrotizing pneumonitis or abscess had the highest mortality rate (10 of 18, 62.6%). The second highest risk factor was preoperative intubation or ventilator-dependency (8 of 18, 44.4%). This study presents the clinical features and outcomes of 71 elderly patients with empyema thoracis who underwent surgical treatment. The 30-day surgical mortality rate was 11.3%. Significant risk factors in elderly patients with empyema thoracis were necrotizing pneumonitis, abscess and preoperative intubation/ventilation. This study also suggested that surgical treatment of empyema thoracic in elderly patients is recommended after failed conservative treatment because of the acceptably postoperative complication and mortality rate.

Causes of death among persons with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Cutter, Gary R; Zimmerman, Jeffrey; Salter, Amber R; Knappertz, Volker; Suarez, Gustavo; Waterbor, John; Howard, Virginia J; Ann Marrie, Ruth

2015-09-01

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a leading cause of disability among young Americans. Reports suggest that life expectancy (i.e., average age at death) remains reduced as compared to the general population, but underlying causes of death (UCOD) are less well-characterized. To describe the cause-specific mortality among participants enrolled in the North American Research Committee on Multiple Sclerosis (NARCOMS) registry and to compare the profile of these causes by age, sex, race and disability status at entry into NARCOMS, with U.S. mortality data. The underlying cause of death (UCOD), any mention cause of death and proportionate mortality were compared among U.S. NARCOMS participants by age, sex, race and disability status. Of the 32,445 participants to be considered for this study, 2,927 had died. Compared to survivors, decedents were older at enrollment and MS diagnosis, more likely to be male, and had less education. UCOD differed markedly by age group. In both sexes, MS as the UCOD was proportionately lower by 20% or more in those aged 25-39 compared to those aged 75 or older. Cancer and cardiovascular causes were more frequent as causes of death with increasing age, but were less than expected at older ages. The effect of disability on mortality was roughly equivalent to the effect of aging on mortality. Among NARCOMS participants older age at enrollment, male sex and greater disability were associated with increased mortality risk. This cohort of MS subjects had a lower proportionate mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer compared to the U.S. population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in Educational Differentials in Suicide Mortality between 1993 - 2006 in Korea

PubMed Central

Lee, Weon Young; Khang, Young-Ho; Noh, Manegseok; Ryu, Jae-In; Son, Mia

2009-01-01

Purpose This study aims to examine how inequalities in suicide by education changed during and after macroeconomic restructuring following the economic crisis of 1997 in South Korea. Materials and Methods Using Korea's 1995, 2000, and 2005 census data aggregately linked to mortality data (1993 - 2006), relative and absolute differentials in suicide mortality by education were calculated by gender and age among Korean population aged 35 and over. Results Average annual suicide mortality rates have steadily increased from 1993 - 1997 to 2003 - 2006 in almost all sociodemographic groups stratified by gender, age, and education. Based on the relative index of inequality (RII) and slope index of inequality (SII), educational differentials in suicide mortality generally increased over time in men and women aged 45 years +. Although RII did not increase with year among men and women aged 35 - 44 years, SII showed a significantly increasing trend in this age group. Conclusion These worsening absolute inequalities in suicide mortality indicate that the governmental suicide prevention policy should be directed toward socially disadvantaged groups of the Korean population. PMID:19718395

A model for spatial variations in life expectancy; mortality in Chinese regions in 2000.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2007-05-02

Life expectancy in China has been improving markedly but health gains have been uneven and there is inequality in survival chances between regions and in rural as against urban areas. This paper applies a statistical modelling approach to mortality data collected in conjunction with the 2000 Census to formally assess spatial mortality contrasts in China. The modelling approach provides interpretable summary parameters (e.g. the relative mortality risk in rural as against urban areas) and is more parsimonious in terms of parameters than the conventional life table model. Predictive fit is assessed both globally and at the level of individual five year age groups. A proportional model (age and area effects independent) has a worse fit than one allowing age-area interactions following a bilinear form. The best fit is obtained by allowing for child and oldest age mortality rates to vary spatially. There is evidence that age (21 age groups) and area (31 Chinese administrative divisions) are not proportional (i.e. independent) mortality risk factors. In fact, spatial contrasts are greatest at young ages. There is a pronounced rural survival disadvantage, and large differences in life expectancy between provinces.

Risk factors of all-cause in-hospital mortality among Korean elderly bacteremic urinary tract infection (UTI) patients.

PubMed

Chin, Bum Sik; Kim, Myung Soo; Han, Sang Hoon; Shin, So Youn; Choi, Hee Kyung; Chae, Yun Tae; Jin, Sung Joon; Baek, Ji-Hyeon; Choi, Jun Yong; Song, Young Goo; Kim, Chang Oh; Kim, June Myung

2011-01-01

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is the most frequent cause of bacteremia/sepsis in elderly people and increasing antimicrobial resistance in uropathogens has been observed. To describe the characteristics of bacteremic UTI in elderly patients and to identify the independent risk factors of all-cause in-hospital mortality, a retrospective cohort study of bacteremic UTI patients of age over 65 was performed at a single 2000-bed tertiary hospital. Bacteremic UTI was defined as the isolation of the same organism from both urine and blood within 48 h. Eighty-six elderly bacteremic UTI patients were enrolled. Community-acquired infection was the case for most patients (79.1%), and Escherichia coli accounted for 88.6% (70/79) among Gram-negative organisms. Non-E. coli Gram-negative organisms were more frequent in hospital-acquired cases and male patients while chronic urinary catheter insertion was related with Gram-positive urosepsis. The antibiotic susceptibility among Gram-negative organisms was not different depending on the source of bacteremic UTI, while non-E. coli Gram-negative organisms were less frequently susceptible for cefotaxime, cefoperazone/sulbactam, and aztreonam. All-cause in-hospital mortality was 11.6%, and functional dependency (adjusted hazard ratio=HR=10.9, 95% confidence interval=95%CI=2.2-54.6) and low serum albumin (adjusted HR=27.0, 95%CI=2.0-361.2) were independently related with increased all-cause in-hospital mortality. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of foetal and infant mortality in the United States and Canada.

PubMed

Ananth, Cande V; Liu, Shiliang; Joseph, K S; Kramer, Michael S

2009-04-01

Infant mortality rates are higher in the United States than in Canada. We explored this difference by comparing gestational age distributions and gestational age-specific mortality rates in the two countries. Stillbirth and infant mortality rates were compared for singleton births at >or=22 weeks and newborns weighing>or=500 g in the United States and Canada (1996-2000). Since menstrual-based gestational age appears to misclassify gestational duration and overestimate both preterm and postterm birth rates, and because a clinical estimate of gestation is the only available measure of gestational age in Canada, all comparisons were based on the clinical estimate. Data for California were excluded because they lacked a clinical estimate. Gestational age-specific comparisons were based on the foetuses-at-risk approach. The overall stillbirth rate in the United States (37.9 per 10,000 births) was similar to that in Canada (38.2 per 10,000 births), while the overall infant mortality rate was 23% (95% CI 19-26%) higher (50.8 vs 41.4 per 10,000 births, respectively). The gestational age distribution was left-shifted in the United States relative to Canada; consequently, preterm birth rates were 8.0 and 6.0%, respectively. Stillbirth and early neonatal mortality rates in the United States were lower at term gestation only. However, gestational age-specific late neonatal, post-neonatal and infant mortality rates were higher in the United States at virtually every gestation. The overall stillbirth rates (per 10,000 foetuses at risk) among Blacks and Whites in the United States, and in Canada were 59.6, 35.0 and 38.3, respectively, whereas the corresponding infant mortality rates were 85.6, 49.7 and 42.2, respectively. Differences in gestational age distributions and in gestational age-specific stillbirth and infant mortality in the United States and Canada underscore substantial differences in healthcare services, population health status and health policy between the two neighbouring countries.

Advance Report of Final Mortality Statistics, 1985.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monthly Vital Statistics Report, 1987

1987-01-01

This document presents mortality statistics for 1985 for the entire United States. Data analysis and discussion of these factors is included: death and death rates; death rates by age, sex, and race; expectation of life at birth and at specified ages; causes of death; infant mortality; and maternal mortality. Highlights reported include: (1) the…

Relative size and stand age determine Pinus banksiana mortality

Treesearch

Han Y. H. Chen; Songling Fu; Robert A. Monserud; Ian C. Gillies

2008-01-01

Tree mortality is a poorly understood process in the boreal forest. Whereas large disturbances reset succession by killing all or most trees, background tree mortality was hypothesized to be affected by competition, ageing, and stand composition. We tested these hypotheses on jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) mortality using data from long-term...

The Intellectual Disability Mortality Disadvantage: Diminishing with Age?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landes, Scott D.

2017-01-01

On average, adults with intellectual disability (ID) have higher mortality risk than their peers in the general population. However, the effect of age on this mortality disadvantage has received minimal attention. Using data from the 1986-2011 National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files (NHIS-LMF), discrete time hazard models were used…

Aging in the natural world: comparative data reveal similar mortality patterns across primates.

PubMed

Bronikowski, Anne M; Altmann, Jeanne; Brockman, Diane K; Cords, Marina; Fedigan, Linda M; Pusey, Anne; Stoinski, Tara; Morris, William F; Strier, Karen B; Alberts, Susan C

2011-03-11

Human senescence patterns-late onset of mortality increase, slow mortality acceleration, and exceptional longevity-are often described as unique in the animal world. Using an individual-based data set from longitudinal studies of wild populations of seven primate species, we show that contrary to assumptions of human uniqueness, human senescence falls within the primate continuum of aging; the tendency for males to have shorter life spans and higher age-specific mortality than females throughout much of adulthood is a common feature in many, but not all, primates; and the aging profiles of primate species do not reflect phylogenetic position. These findings suggest that mortality patterns in primates are shaped by local selective forces rather than phylogenetic history.

The Significance of Education for Mortality Compression in the United States*

PubMed Central

Brown, Dustin C.; Hayward, Mark D.; Montez, Jennifer Karas; Humme, Robert A.; Chiu, Chi-Tsun; Hidajat, Mira M.

2012-01-01

Recent studies of old-age mortality trends assess whether longevity improvements over time are linked to increasing compression of mortality at advanced ages. The historical backdrop of these studies is the long-term improvements in a population's socioeconomic resources that fueled longevity gains. We extend this line of inquiry by examining whether socioeconomic differences in longevity within a population are accompanied by old-age mortality compression. Specifically, we document educational differences in longevity and mortality compression for older men and women in the United States. Drawing on the fundamental cause of disease framework, we hypothesize that both longevity and compression increase with higher levels of education and that women with the highest levels of education will exhibit the greatest degree of longevity and compression. Results based on the Health and Retirement Study and the National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality File confirm a strong educational gradient in both longevity and mortality compression. We also find that mortality is more compressed within educational groups among women than men. The results suggest that educational attainment in the United States maximizes life chances by delaying the biological aging process. PMID:22556045

[Analysis on death causes of residents in Anhui province, 2013].

PubMed

He, Qin; Chen, Yeji; Dai, Dan; Xu, Wei; Xing, Xiuya; Liu, Zhirong

2015-09-01

To analyze the demographic characteristics and the death causes of the residents in Anhui province, and provide evidence for the disease prevention and control. Using descriptive epidemiological analysis, the demographic characteristics and death data of the national disease surveillance points (DSPs) in Anhui province in 2013 were analyed by areas. The aging of the population was observed in all the areas in Anhui, which was most obvious in Jianghuai, followed by Wannan and Huaibei. The overall mortality was 627.10/100 000. The mortalities of diseases varied with sex, area and age. Among the 3 areas, the overall mortality, chronic disease mortality and injury mortality were highest in Huaibei and lowest in Wannan. The area specific difference in mortality of infectious diseases was small. Regardless of areas or the types of diseases, the mortality was higher in males than in females. Deaths caused by diseases with unknown origins were common in residents aged >65 years. The mortality of chronic diseases was higher in residents aged >45 years, especially in those aged 65-84 years. The mortality of injuries was higher in age groups >15 years and >45 years. The mortality of infectious diseases peaked at both young age group and old age group. The top five death causes were cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumors, heart diseases, respiratory diseases and injuries. Regardless of sex or area, the major death causes were similar, but the ranks were slightly different. The major death causes varied in different age groups, but they were similar in same age group in different areas. The major death causes were diseases originated in perinatal period, and congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities in children aged <1 year. The major death causes in children aged 1-14 years were injuries, diseases originated in perinatal period, congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities. Injuries and malignant tumors were the first and second death causes in residents aged 15-44 years. Malignant tumors, injuries, cerebrovascular diseases and heart diseases were the major death causes in residents aged 45-64 years. The major death causes were cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumors, heart diseases and respiratory diseases in residents aged 65-84 years and heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malign tumors in residents aged≥85 years. The major death causes in residents in Anhui province were cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumors and injuries. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumors and heart diseases in age group≥45 years. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of injuries in age group 15-44 years. Huaibei is a key area of disease prevention and control in Anhui, especially chronic disease and injury preventions.

Evolutionary theory of ageing and the problem of correlated Gompertz parameters.

PubMed

Burger, Oskar; Missov, Trifon I

2016-11-07

The Gompertz mortality model is often used to evaluate evolutionary theories of ageing, such as the Medawar-Williams' hypothesis that high extrinsic mortality leads to faster ageing. However, fits of the Gompertz mortality model to data often find the opposite result that mortality is negatively correlated with the rate of ageing. This negative correlation has been independently discovered in several taxa and is known in actuarial studies of ageing as the Strehler-Mildvan correlation. We examine the role of mortality selection in determining late-life variation in susceptibility to death, which has been suggested to be the cause of this negative correlation. We demonstrate that fixed-frailty models that account for heterogeneity in frailty do not remove the correlation and that the correlation is an inherent statistical property of the Gompertz distribution. Linking actuarial and biological rates of ageing will continue to be a pressing challenge, but the Strehler-Mildvan correlation itself should not be used to diagnose any biological, physiological, or evolutionary process. These findings resolve some key tensions between theory and data that affect evolutionary and biological studies of ageing and mortality. Tests of evolutionary theories of ageing should include direct measures of physiological performance or condition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Did the Great Recession affect mortality rates in the metropolitan United States? Effects on mortality by age, gender and cause of death.

PubMed

Strumpf, Erin C; Charters, Thomas J; Harper, Sam; Nandi, Arijit

2017-09-01

Mortality rates generally decline during economic recessions in high-income countries, however gaps remain in our understanding of the underlying mechanisms. This study estimates the impacts of increases in unemployment rates on both all-cause and cause-specific mortality across U.S. metropolitan regions during the Great Recession. We estimate the effects of economic conditions during the recent and severe recessionary period on mortality, including differences by age and gender subgroups, using fixed effects regression models. We identify a plausibly causal effect by isolating the impacts of within-metropolitan area changes in unemployment rates and controlling for common temporal trends. We aggregated vital statistics, population, and unemployment data at the area-month-year-age-gender-race level, yielding 527,040 observations across 366 metropolitan areas, 2005-2010. We estimate that a one percentage point increase in the metropolitan area unemployment rate was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality of 3.95 deaths per 100,000 person years (95%CI -6.80 to -1.10), or 0.5%. Estimated reductions in cardiovascular disease mortality contributed 60% of the overall effect and were more pronounced among women. Motor vehicle accident mortality declined with unemployment increases, especially for men and those under age 65, as did legal intervention and homicide mortality, particularly for men and adults ages 25-64. We find suggestive evidence that increases in metropolitan area unemployment increased accidental drug poisoning deaths for both men and women ages 25-64. Our finding that all-cause mortality decreased during the Great Recession is consistent with previous studies. Some categories of cause-specific mortality, notably cardiovascular disease, also follow this pattern, and are more pronounced for certain gender and age groups. Our study also suggests that the recent recession contributed to the growth in deaths from overdoses of prescription drugs in working-age adults in metropolitan areas. Additional research investigating the mechanisms underlying the health consequences of macroeconomic conditions is warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two denominators for one numerator: the example of neonatal mortality.

PubMed

Harmon, Quaker E; Basso, Olga; Weinberg, Clarice R; Wilcox, Allen J

2018-06-01

Preterm delivery is one of the strongest predictors of neonatal mortality. A given exposure may increase neonatal mortality directly, or indirectly by increasing the risk of preterm birth. Efforts to assess these direct and indirect effects are complicated by the fact that neonatal mortality arises from two distinct denominators (i.e. two risk sets). One risk set comprises fetuses, susceptible to intrauterine pathologies (such as malformations or infection), which can result in neonatal death. The other risk set comprises live births, who (unlike fetuses) are susceptible to problems of immaturity and complications of delivery. In practice, fetal and neonatal sources of neonatal mortality cannot be separated-not only because of incomplete information, but because risks from both sources can act on the same newborn. We use simulations to assess the repercussions of this structural problem. We first construct a scenario in which fetal and neonatal factors contribute separately to neonatal mortality. We introduce an exposure that increases risk of preterm birth (and thus neonatal mortality) without affecting the two baseline sets of neonatal mortality risk. We then calculate the apparent gestational-age-specific mortality for exposed and unexposed newborns, using as the denominator either fetuses or live births at a given gestational age. If conditioning on gestational age successfully blocked the mediating effect of preterm delivery, then exposure would have no effect on gestational-age-specific risk. Instead, we find apparent exposure effects with either denominator. Except for prediction, neither denominator provides a meaningful way to define gestational-age-specific neonatal mortality.

Partial life tables from three generations of Enaphalodes rufulus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae).

PubMed

Haavik, Laurel J; Crook, Damon J; Fierke, Melissa K; Galligan, Larry D; Stephen, Fred M

2012-12-01

We used life table analyses to investigate age specific mortality and to better understand the population dynamics of the red oak borer, Enaphalodes rufulus (Haldeman) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). We continually sampled populations within 177 trees at primarily two sites in the Ozark National Forest in Arkansas throughout three (2-yr) generations. The first cohort (adults emerged in 2003) was sampled during a severe population outbreak, whereas the second and third (2005 and 2007) were sampled during the population crash that followed. Generation mortality was 94% in 2003 and 99% in both 2005 and 2007. Estimates of apparent mortality indicated that the E. rufulus population crash likely occurred during or before the first overwintering period (2003-2004) of the generation that emerged as adults in 2005. We found limited evidence for density dependent mortality, which suggest that intraspecific competition after the first active feeding period was apparently not an important mortality factor during E. rufulus development. Life tables revealed that E. rufulus larvae generally experienced the greatest apparent mortality during the second summer of active feeding (80-94%) when larvae were feeding in, and moving between phloem and sapwood. The least apparent mortality was incurred during the following spring and early summer (26-67%) when late stage larvae and pupae were deepest and most protected within sapwood or heartwood tunnels. We found very little evidence for mortality from associated species. Scarring of vascular tissue in response to E. rufulus feeding occurred during early life stages and may be an important tree resistance mechanism and E. rufulus mortality factor.

Community air pollution and mortality: Analysis of 1980 data from US metropolitan areas. 1: Particulate air pollution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lipfert, F.W.

1992-11-01

1980 data from up to 149 metropolitan areas were used to define cross-sectional associations between community air pollution and excess human mortality. The regression model proposed by Oezkaynak and Thurston, which accounted for age, race, education, poverty, and population density, was evaluated and several new models were developed. The new models also accounted for population change, drinking water hardness, and smoking, and included a more detailed description of race. Cause-of-death categories analyzed include all causes, all non-external causes, major cardiovascular diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD). Both annual mortality rates and their logarithms were analyzed. The data on particulatesmore » were averaged across all monitoring stations available for each SMSA and the TSP data were restricted to the year 1980. The associations between mortality and air pollution were found to be dependent on the socioeconomic factors included in the models, the specific locations included din the data set, and the type of statistical model used. Statistically significant associations were found between TSP and mortality due to non-external causes with log-linear models, but not with a linear model, and between TS and COPD mortality for both linear and log-linear models. When the sulfate contribution to TSP was subtracted, the relationship with COPD mortality was strengthened. Scatter plots and quintile analyses suggested a TSP threshold for COPD mortality at around 65 ug/m{sup 3} (annual average). SO{sub 4}{sup {minus}2}, Mn, PM{sup 15}, and PM{sub 2.5} were not significantly associated with mortality using the new models.« less

Educational inequalities in mortality are larger at low levels of income: A register-based study on premature mortality among 2.3 million Swedes, 2006-2009.

PubMed

Östergren, Olof

2018-08-01

Education develops skills that help individuals use available material resources more efficiently. When material resources are scarce, each decision becomes comparatively more important. Education may also protect from health-related income decline, since the highly educated tend to work in occupations with lower physical demands. Educational inequalities in health may, therefore, be more pronounced at lower levels of income. The aim of this study is to assess whether the shape of the income gradient in premature mortality depends on the level of education. Total population data on education, income and mortality was obtained by linking several Swedish registers. Income was defined as five-year average disposable household income for ages 35-64 and mortality follow-up covered the period 2006-2009. The final population comprised 2.3 million individuals, 6.2 million person-years and 14,362 deaths. Income was modeled using splines in order to allow variation in the functional form of the association across educational categories. Poisson regression with robust standard errors was used. The curvilinear shape of the association between income and mortality was more pronounced among those with a low education. Both absolute and relative educational inequalities in premature mortality tended to be larger at low levels of income. The greatest income differences in mortality were observed for those with a low education and the smallest for the highly educated. Education and income interact as predictors of mortality. Education is a more important factor for health when access to material resources is limited.

Evolution of aging: individual life history trade-offs and population heterogeneity account for mortality patterns across species.

PubMed

Le Cunff, Y; Baudisch, A; Pakdaman, K

2014-08-01

A broad range of mortality patterns has been documented across species, some even including decreasing mortality over age. Whether there exist a common denominator to explain both similarities and differences in these mortality patterns remains an open question. The disposable soma theory, an evolutionary theory of aging, proposes that universal intracellular trade-offs between maintenance/lifespan and reproduction would drive aging across species. The disposable soma theory has provided numerous insights concerning aging processes in single individuals. Yet, which specific population mortality patterns it can lead to is still largely unexplored. In this article, we propose a model exploring the mortality patterns which emerge from an evolutionary process including only the disposable soma theory core principles. We adapt a well-known model of genomic evolution to show that mortality curves producing a kink or mid-life plateaus derive from a common minimal evolutionary framework. These mortality shapes qualitatively correspond to those of Drosophila melanogaster, Caenorhabditis elegans, medflies, yeasts and humans. Species evolved in silico especially differ in their population diversity of maintenance strategies, which itself emerges as an adaptation to the environment over generations. Based on this integrative framework, we also derive predictions and interpretations concerning the effects of diet changes and heat-shock treatments on mortality patterns. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Trends in traumatic brain injury mortality in China, 2006-2013: A population-based longitudinal study.

PubMed

Cheng, Peixia; Yin, Peng; Ning, Peishan; Wang, Lijun; Cheng, Xunjie; Liu, Yunning; Schwebel, David C; Liu, Jiangmei; Qi, Jinlei; Hu, Guoqing; Zhou, Maigeng

2017-07-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a significant global public health problem, but has received minimal attention from researchers and policy-makers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Epidemiological evidence of TBI morbidity and mortality is absent at the national level for most LMICs, including China. Using data from China's Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) system, we conducted a population-based longitudinal analysis to examine TBI mortality, and mortality differences by sex, age group, location (urban/rural), and external cause of injury, from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2013 in China. Mortality data came from the national DSPs system of China, which has coded deaths using the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10) since 2004. Crude and age-standardized mortality with 95% CIs were estimated using the census population in 2010 as a reference population. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to examine the significance of trends in mortality from 2006 to 2013. Negative binomial models were used to examine the associations of TBI mortality with location, sex, and age group. Subgroup analysis was performed by external cause of TBI. We found the following: (1) Age-adjusted TBI mortality increased from 13.23 per 100,000 population in 2006 to 17.06 per 100,000 population in 2008 and then began to fall slightly. In 2013, age-adjusted TBI mortality was 12.99 per 100,000 population (SE = 0.13). (2) Compared to females and urban residents, males and rural residents had higher TBI mortality risk, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 2.57 and 1.71, respectively. TBI mortality increased substantially with older age. (3) Motor vehicle crashes and falls were the 2 leading causes of TBI mortality between 2006 and 2013. TBI deaths from motor vehicle crashes in children aged 0-14 years and adults aged 65 years and older were most often in pedestrians, and motorcyclists were the first or second leading category of road user for the other age groups. (4) TBI mortality attributed to motor vehicle crashes increased for pedestrians and motorcyclists in all 7 age groups from 2006 to 2013. Our analysis was limited by the availability and quality of data in the DSPs dataset, including lack of injury-related socio-economic factors, policy factors, and individual and behavioral factors. The dataset also may be incomplete in TBI death recording or contain misclassification of mortality data. TBI constitutes a serious public health threat in China. Further studies should explore the reasons for the particularly high risk of TBI mortality among particular populations, as well as the reasons for recent increases in certain subgroups, and should develop solutions to address these challenges. Interventions proven to work in other cultures should be introduced and implemented nationwide. Examples of these in the domain of motor vehicle crashes include policy change and enforcement of laws concerning helmet use for motorcyclists and bicyclists, car seat and booster seat use for child motor vehicle passengers, speed limit and drunk driving laws, and alcohol ignition interlock use. Examples to prevent falls, especially among elderly individuals, include exercise programs, home modification to reduce fall risk, and multifaceted interventions to prevent falls in all age groups.

Characterization of a Novel Murine Model to Study Zika Virus.

PubMed

Rossi, Shannan L; Tesh, Robert B; Azar, Sasha R; Muruato, Antonio E; Hanley, Kathryn A; Auguste, Albert J; Langsjoen, Rose M; Paessler, Slobodan; Vasilakis, Nikos; Weaver, Scott C

2016-06-01

The mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) is responsible for an explosive ongoing outbreak of febrile illness across the Americas. ZIKV was previously thought to cause only a mild, flu-like illness, but during the current outbreak, an association with Guillain-Barré syndrome and microcephaly in neonates has been detected. A previous study showed that ZIKV requires murine adaptation to generate reproducible murine disease. In our study, a low-passage Cambodian isolate caused disease and mortality in mice lacking the interferon (IFN) alpha receptor (A129 mice) in an age-dependent manner, but not in similarly aged immunocompetent mice. In A129 mice, viremia peaked at ∼10(7) plaque-forming units/mL by day 2 postinfection (PI) and reached high titers in the spleen by day 1. ZIKV was detected in the brain on day 3 PI and caused signs of neurologic disease, including tremors, by day 6. Robust replication was also noted in the testis. In this model, all mice infected at the youngest age (3 weeks) succumbed to illness by day 7 PI. Older mice (11 weeks) showed signs of illness, viremia, and weight loss but recovered starting on day 8. In addition, AG129 mice, which lack both type I and II IFN responses, supported similar infection kinetics to A129 mice, but with exaggerated disease signs. This characterization of an Asian lineage ZIKV strain in a murine model, and one of the few studies reporting a model of Zika disease and demonstrating age-dependent morbidity and mortality, could provide a platform for testing the efficacy of antivirals and vaccines. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Forecasting selected specific age mortality rate of Malaysia by using Lee-Carter model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukri Kamaruddin, Halim; Ismail, Noriszura

2018-03-01

Observing mortality pattern and trend is an important subject for any country to maintain a good social-economy in the next projection years. The declining in mortality trend gives a good impression of what a government has done towards macro citizen in one nation. Selecting a particular mortality model can be a tricky based on the approached method adapting. Lee-Carter model is adapted because of its simplicity and reliability of the outcome results with approach of regression. Implementation of Lee-Carter in finding a fitted model and hence its projection has been used worldwide in most of mortality research in developed countries. This paper studies the mortality pattern of Malaysia in the past by using original model of Lee-Carter (1992) and hence its cross-sectional observation for a single age. The data is indexed by age of death and year of death from 1984 to 2012, in which are supplied by Department of Statistics Malaysia. The results are modelled by using RStudio and the keen analysis will focus on the trend and projection of mortality rate and age specific mortality rate in the future. This paper can be extended to different variants extensions of Lee-Carter or any stochastic mortality tool by using Malaysia mortality experience as a centre of the main issue.

Geographical and Temporal Variations in Female Breast Cancer Mortality in the Municipalities of Andalusia (Southern Spain).

PubMed

Ocaña-Riola, Ricardo; Montaño-Remacha, Carmen; Mayoral-Cortés, José María

2016-11-22

The last published figures have shown geographical variations in mortality with respect to female breast cancer in European countries. However, national health policies need a dynamic image of the geographical variations within the country. The aim of this paper was to describe the spatial distribution of age-specific mortality rates from female breast cancer in the municipalities of Andalusia (southern Spain) and to analyze its evolution over time from 1981 to 2012. An ecological study was devised. Two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated. One of these was used to estimate the age-specific mortality rate for each municipality, together with its time trends, and the other was used to estimate the age-specific rate ratio compared with Spain as a whole. The results showed that 98% of the municipalities exhibited a decreasing or a flat mortality trend for all the age groups. In 2012, the geographical variability of the age-specific mortality rates was small, especially for population groups below 65. In addition, more than 96.6% of the municipalities showed an age-specific mortality rate similar to the corresponding rate for Spain, and there were no identified significant clusters. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of breast cancer outcomes in Andalusia.

Geographical and Temporal Variations in Female Breast Cancer Mortality in the Municipalities of Andalusia (Southern Spain)

PubMed Central

Ocaña-Riola, Ricardo; Montaño-Remacha, Carmen; Mayoral-Cortés, José María

2016-01-01

The last published figures have shown geographical variations in mortality with respect to female breast cancer in European countries. However, national health policies need a dynamic image of the geographical variations within the country. The aim of this paper was to describe the spatial distribution of age-specific mortality rates from female breast cancer in the municipalities of Andalusia (southern Spain) and to analyze its evolution over time from 1981 to 2012. An ecological study was devised. Two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated. One of these was used to estimate the age-specific mortality rate for each municipality, together with its time trends, and the other was used to estimate the age-specific rate ratio compared with Spain as a whole. The results showed that 98% of the municipalities exhibited a decreasing or a flat mortality trend for all the age groups. In 2012, the geographical variability of the age-specific mortality rates was small, especially for population groups below 65. In addition, more than 96.6% of the municipalities showed an age-specific mortality rate similar to the corresponding rate for Spain, and there were no identified significant clusters. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of breast cancer outcomes in Andalusia. PMID:27879690

[The changing sex differences in life expectancy in Spain (1980-2012): decomposition by age and cause].

PubMed

García González, Juan Manuel; Grande, Rafael

To calculate and analyse the contributions of changes in mortality by age groups and selected causes of death to sex differences in life expectancy at birth in Spain from 1980 to 2012. Cross-sectional study with three time points (1980, 1995, and 2012). We used data from Human Cause-of-Death Database and Human Mortality Database. We use a decomposition method of the differences in life expectancy and gender differences in life expectancy from changes in mortality by 5-year age groups and causes of death between women and men. From 1980 to 1995, the lower mortality of women from 25 years old, and the differences in mortality by HIV/AIDS, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases contributed to the gap increase. From 1995 to 2012, greatest improvement in mortality of males under 74 years of age, and in improving male mortality from HIV/AIDS, acute myocardial infarction and traffic accidents contributed to the narrowing. The difference in life expectancy at birth between men and women has decreased since 1995 due to a greater improvement in mortality from causes of death associated with risky behaviours and habits of the working age male population. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Elevated Influenza-Related Excess Mortality in South African Elderly Individuals, 1998–2005

PubMed Central

Cohen, Cheryl; Simonsen, Lone; Kang, Jong-Won; Miller, Mark; McAnerney, Jo; Blumberg, Lucille; Schoub, Barry; Madhi, Shabir A.; Viboud, Cécile

2010-01-01

Background. Although essential to guide control measures, published estimates of influenza-related seasonal mortality for low- and middle-income countries are few. We aimed to compare influenza-related mortality among individuals aged ⩾65 years in South Africa and the United States. Methods. We estimated influenza-related excess mortality due to all causes, pneumonia and influenza, and other influenza-associated diagnoses from monthly age-specific mortality data for 1998–2005 using a Serfling regression model. We controlled for between-country differences in population age structure and nondemographic factors (baseline mortality and coding practices) by generating age-standardized estimates and by estimating the percentage excess mortality attributable to influenza. Results. Age-standardized excess mortality rates were higher in South Africa than in the United States: 545 versus 133 deaths per 100,000 population for all causes (P < .001) and 63 vs 21 deaths per 100,000 population for pneumonia and influenza (P=.03). Standardization for nondemographic factors decreased but did not eliminate between-country differences; for example, the mean percentage of winter deaths attributable to influenza was 16% in South Africa and 6% in the United States (P < .001). For all respiratory causes, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes, age-standardized excess death rates were 4—8-fold greater in South Africa than in the United States, and the percentage increase in winter deaths attributable to influenza was 2—4-fold higher. Conclusions. These data suggest that the impact of seasonal influenza on mortality among elderly individuals may be substantially higher in an African setting, compared with in the United States, and highlight the potential for influenza vaccination programs to decrease mortality. PMID:21070141

Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor in TBI-related mortality: Interrelationships between Genetics and Acute Systemic and CNS BDNF Profiles

PubMed Central

Failla, Michelle D.; Conley, Yvette P.; Wagner, Amy K.

2015-01-01

Background Older adults have higher mortality rates after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) compared to younger adults. Brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) signaling is altered in aging and is important to TBI given its role in neuronal survival/plasticity and autonomic function. Following experimental TBI, acute BDNF administration has not been efficacious. Clinically, genetic variation in BDNF (reduced signaling alleles: rs6265, Met-carriers; rs7124442, C-carriers) were protective in acute mortality. Post-acutely, these genotypes carried lower mortality risk in older adults, and greater mortality risk among younger adults. Objective Investigate BDNF levels in mortality/outcome following severe TBI in the context of age and genetic risk. Methods CSF and serum BDNF were assessed prospectively during the first week following severe TBI (n=203), and in controls (n=10). Age, BDNF genotype, and BDNF levels were assessed as mortality/outcome predictors. Results CSF BDNF levels tended to be higher post-TBI (p=0.061) versus controls and were associated with time until death (p=0.042). In contrast, serum BDNF levels were reduced post-TBI versus controls (p<0.0001). Both gene*BDNF serum and gene*age interactions were mortality predictors post-TBI in the same multivariate model. CSF and serum BDNF tended to be negatively correlated post-TBI (p=0.07). Conclusions BDNF levels predicted mortality, in addition to gene*age interactions, suggesting levels capture additional mortality risk. Higher CSF BDNF post-TBI may be detrimental due to injury and age-related increases in pro-apoptotic BDNF target receptors. Negative CSF and serum BDNF correlations post-TBI suggest blood-brain barrier transit alterations. Understanding BDNF signaling in neuronal survival, plasticity, and autonomic function may inform treatment. PMID:25979196

Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) in Traumatic Brain Injury-Related Mortality: Interrelationships Between Genetics and Acute Systemic and Central Nervous System BDNF Profiles.

PubMed

Failla, Michelle D; Conley, Yvette P; Wagner, Amy K

2016-01-01

Older adults have higher mortality rates after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) compared to younger adults. Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) signaling is altered in aging and is important to TBI given its role in neuronal survival/plasticity and autonomic function. Following experimental TBI, acute BDNF administration has not been efficacious. Clinically, genetic variation in BDNF (reduced signaling alleles: rs6265, Met-carriers; rs7124442, C-carriers) can be protective against acute mortality. Postacutely, these genotypes carry lower mortality risk in older adults and greater mortality risk among younger adults. Investigate BDNF levels in mortality/outcome following severe TBI in the context of age and genetic risk. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and serum BDNF were assessed prospectively during the first week following severe TBI (n = 203) and in controls (n = 10). Age, BDNF genotype, and BDNF levels were assessed as mortality/outcome predictors. CSF BDNF levels tended to be higher post-TBI (P = .061) versus controls and were associated with time until death (P = .042). In contrast, serum BDNF levels were reduced post-TBI versus controls (P < .0001). Both gene * BDNF serum and gene * age interactions were mortality predictors post-TBI in the same multivariate model. CSF and serum BDNF tended to be negatively correlated post-TBI (P = .07). BDNF levels predicted mortality, in addition to gene * age interactions, suggesting levels capture additional mortality risk. Higher CSF BDNF post-TBI may be detrimental due to injury and age-related increases in pro-apoptotic BDNF target receptors. Negative CSF and serum BDNF correlations post-TBI suggest blood-brain barrier transit alterations. Understanding BDNF signaling in neuronal survival, plasticity, and autonomic function may inform treatment. © The Author(s) 2015.

Old age mortality and macroeconomic cycles.

PubMed

Rolden, Herbert J A; van Bodegom, David; van den Hout, Wilbert B; Westendorp, Rudi G J

2014-01-01

As mortality is more and more concentrated at old age, it becomes critical to identify the determinants of old age mortality. It has counter-intuitively been found that mortality rates at all ages are higher during short-term increases in economic growth. Work-stress is found to be a contributing factor to this association, but cannot explain the association for the older, retired population. Historical figures of gross domestic product (Angus Maddison) were compared with mortality rates (Human Mortality Database) of middle aged (40-44 years) and older people (70-74 years) in 19 developed countries for the period 1950-2008. Regressions were performed on the de-trended data, accounting for autocorrelation and aggregated using random effects models. Most countries show pro-cyclical associations between the economy and mortality, especially with regard to male mortality rates. On average, for every 1% increase in gross domestic product, mortality increases with 0.36% for 70-year-old to 74-year-old men (p<0.001) and 0.38% for 40-year-old to 44-year-old men (p<0.001). The effect for women is 0.18% for 70-year-olds to 74-year-olds (p=0.012) and 0.15% for 40-year-olds to 44-year-olds (p=0.118). In developed countries, mortality rates increase during upward cycles in the economy, and decrease during downward cycles. This effect is similar for the older and middle-aged population. Traditional explanations as work-stress and traffic accidents cannot explain our findings. Lower levels of social support and informal care by the working population during good economic times can play an important role, but this remains to be formally investigated.

Predictors for good functional outcome after neurocritical care.

PubMed

Kiphuth, Ines C; Schellinger, Peter D; Köhrmann, Martin; Bardutzky, Jürgen; Lücking, Hannes; Kloska, Stephan; Schwab, Stefan; Huttner, Hagen B

2010-01-01

There are only limited data on the long-term outcome of patients receiving specialized neurocritical care. In this study we analyzed survival, long-term mortality and functional outcome after neurocritical care and determined predictors for good functional outcome. We retrospectively investigated 796 consecutive patients admitted to a non-surgical neurologic intensive care unit over a period of two years (2006 and 2007). Demographic and clinical parameters were analyzed. Depending on the diagnosis, we grouped patients according to their diseases (cerebral ischemia, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), meningitis/encephalitis, epilepsy, Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) and myasthenia gravis (MG), neurodegenerative diseases and encephalopathy, cerebral neoplasm and intoxication). Clinical parameters, mortality and functional outcome of all treated patients were analyzed. Functional outcome (using the modified Rankin Scale, mRS) one year after discharge was assessed by a mailed questionnaire or telephone interview. Outcome was dichotomized into good (mRS ≤ 2) and poor (mRS ≥ 3). Logistic regression analyses were calculated to determine independent predictors for good functional outcome. Overall in-hospital mortality amounted to 22.5% of all patients, and a good long-term functional outcome was achieved in 28.4%. The parameters age, length of ventilation (LOV), admission diagnosis of ICH, GBS/MG, and inoperable cerebral neoplasm as well as Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS)-28 on Day 1 were independently associated with functional outcome after one year. This investigation revealed that age, LOV and TISS-28 on Day 1 were strongly predictive for the outcome. The diagnoses of hemorrhagic stroke and cerebral neoplasm leading to neurocritical care predispose for functional dependence or death, whereas patients with GBS and MG are more likely to recover after neurocritical care.

Predictors for good functional outcome after neurocritical care

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Introduction There are only limited data on the long-term outcome of patients receiving specialized neurocritical care. In this study we analyzed survival, long-term mortality and functional outcome after neurocritical care and determined predictors for good functional outcome. Methods We retrospectively investigated 796 consecutive patients admitted to a non-surgical neurologic intensive care unit over a period of two years (2006 and 2007). Demographic and clinical parameters were analyzed. Depending on the diagnosis, we grouped patients according to their diseases (cerebral ischemia, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), meningitis/encephalitis, epilepsy, Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) and myasthenia gravis (MG), neurodegenerative diseases and encephalopathy, cerebral neoplasm and intoxication). Clinical parameters, mortality and functional outcome of all treated patients were analyzed. Functional outcome (using the modified Rankin Scale, mRS) one year after discharge was assessed by a mailed questionnaire or telephone interview. Outcome was dichotomized into good (mRS ≤ 2) and poor (mRS ≥ 3). Logistic regression analyses were calculated to determine independent predictors for good functional outcome. Results Overall in-hospital mortality amounted to 22.5% of all patients, and a good long-term functional outcome was achieved in 28.4%. The parameters age, length of ventilation (LOV), admission diagnosis of ICH, GBS/MG, and inoperable cerebral neoplasm as well as Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS)-28 on Day 1 were independently associated with functional outcome after one year. Conclusions This investigation revealed that age, LOV and TISS-28 on Day 1 were strongly predictive for the outcome. The diagnoses of hemorrhagic stroke and cerebral neoplasm leading to neurocritical care predispose for functional dependence or death, whereas patients with GBS and MG are more likely to recover after neurocritical care. PMID:20646313

Mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in France: comparison to seasonal influenza and the A/H3N2 pandemic.

PubMed

Lemaitre, Magali; Carrat, Fabrice; Rey, Grégoire; Miller, Mark; Simonsen, Lone; Viboud, Cécile

2012-01-01

The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons. We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 0.2-1.9) excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43-45) for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3-3.7) for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5-24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years. The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable age-specific estimates.

Austerity and old-age mortality in England: a longitudinal cross-local area analysis, 2007-2013.

PubMed

Loopstra, Rachel; McKee, Martin; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Taylor-Robinson, David; Barr, Ben; Stuckler, David

2016-03-01

There has been significant concern that austerity measures have negatively impacted health in the UK. We examined whether budgetary reductions in Pension Credit and social care have been associated with recent rises in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over. Cross-local authority longitudinal study. Three hundred and twenty-four lower tier local authorities in England. Annual percentage changes in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years or over. Between 2007 and 2013, each 1% decline in Pension Credit spending (support for low income pensioners) per beneficiary was associated with an increase in 0.68% in old-age mortality (95% CI: 0.41 to 0.95). Each reduction in the number of beneficiaries per 1000 pensioners was associated with an increase in 0.20% (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.24). Each 1% decline in social care spending was associated with a significant rise in old-age mortality (0.08%, 95% CI: 0.0006-0.12) but not after adjusting for Pension Credit spending. Similar patterns were seen in both men and women. Weaker associations observed for those aged 75 to 84 years, and none among those 65 to 74 years. Categories of service expenditure not expected to affect old-age mortality, such as transportation, showed no association. Rising mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over were linked to reductions in spending on income support for poor pensioners and social care. Findings suggest austerity measures in England have affected vulnerable old-age adults. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Austerity and old-age mortality in England: a longitudinal cross-local area analysis, 2007–2013

PubMed Central

McKee, Martin; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Taylor-Robinson, David; Barr, Ben; Stuckler, David

2016-01-01

Objective There has been significant concern that austerity measures have negatively impacted health in the UK. We examined whether budgetary reductions in Pension Credit and social care have been associated with recent rises in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over. Design Cross-local authority longitudinal study. Setting Three hundred and twenty-four lower tier local authorities in England. Main outcome measure Annual percentage changes in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years or over. Results Between 2007 and 2013, each 1% decline in Pension Credit spending (support for low income pensioners) per beneficiary was associated with an increase in 0.68% in old-age mortality (95% CI: 0.41 to 0.95). Each reduction in the number of beneficiaries per 1000 pensioners was associated with an increase in 0.20% (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.24). Each 1% decline in social care spending was associated with a significant rise in old-age mortality (0.08%, 95% CI: 0.0006–0.12) but not after adjusting for Pension Credit spending. Similar patterns were seen in both men and women. Weaker associations observed for those aged 75 to 84 years, and none among those 65 to 74 years. Categories of service expenditure not expected to affect old-age mortality, such as transportation, showed no association. Conclusions Rising mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over were linked to reductions in spending on income support for poor pensioners and social care. Findings suggest austerity measures in England have affected vulnerable old-age adults. PMID:26980412

Complex life cycles and density dependence: assessing the contribution of egg mortality to amphibian declines.

PubMed

Vonesh, James R; De la Cruz, Omar

2002-11-01

In the last decade there has been increasing evidence of amphibian declines from relatively pristine areas. Some declines are hypothesized to be the result of egg mortality caused by factors such as elevated solar UV-B irradiation, chemical pollutants, pathogenic fungi, and climate change. However, the population-level consequences of egg mortality have not been examined explicitly, and may be complicated by density dependence in intervening life-history stages. Here we develop a demographic model for two amphibians with contrasting life-history strategies, Bufo boreas and Ambystoma macrodactylum. We then use the complementary approaches of elasticity and limitation to examine the relationships among stage-specific survival rates, larval-stage density dependence and amphibian population dynamics. Elasticity analyses showed that for a range of density dependence scenarios both species were more sensitive to changes in post-embryonic survival parameters, particularly juvenile survival, than to egg survival, suggesting that mortality of later stages may play an important role in driving declines. Limitation analyses revealed that larval density dependence can dramatically alter the consequences of early mortality, reducing or even reversing the expected population-level effects of egg mortality. Thus, greater focus on later life stages and density dependence is called for to accurately assess how stressors are likely to affect amphibian populations of conservation concern.

The impacts of health, education, family planning and electrification programs on fertility, mortality and child schooling in East Java, Indonesia.

PubMed

Wirakartakusumah, M D

1988-06-01

This paper examines the effects of public health, family planning, education, electrification, and water supply programs on fertility, child mortality, and school enrollment decisions of rural households in East Java, Indonesia. The theoretical model assumes that parents maximize a utility function, subject to 1) a budget constraint that equates income with expenditures on children (including schooling and health inputs), and 2) a production function that relates health inputs to child survival possibilities. Public programs affect prices of contraceptives, schooling and health inputs, and environmental conditions that in turn affect child survival. Data are taken from the 1980 East Java Population Survey, the Socio-economic Survey, and the Detailed Village Census. The final sample consists of 3170 rural households with married women of childbearing age. Ordinary least squares and logit regressions of recent fertility, child mortality, and school enrollment on program and household variables yielded the following findings. 1) The presence of maternal and child health clinics reduced fertility but not mortality. 2) The presence of public health centers strongly reduced mortality but not fertility. 3) The presence of contraceptive distribution centers had no effect on fertility. 4) School attendance rates were influenced positively by the availability of primary and secondary schools. 5) Health and family planning programs had no effects on schooling. 6) The availability of public latrines reduced fertility and mortality. 7) The water supply variable did not affect the dependent variables when ordinary least squares techniques were applied but had statistically significant impact when logit methods were used. 8) Electricity supply had little effect on the dependent variables. 9) The mother's schooling had a strong positive correlation with children's schooling but no effect on fertility or mortality. 10) Household expenditures were related positively to school attendance and negatively to mortality. 11) There was little or no interaction between household variables and presence of government programs. 12) Subprovincial area measures of service availability appeared more appropriate for public health and family planning services, while village-level measures appeared more appropriate for schooling.

Risk of complications in coeliac patients depends on age at diagnosis and type of clinical presentation.

PubMed

Biagi, Federico; Schiepatti, Annalisa; Maiorano, Gregorio; Fraternale, Giacomo; Agazzi, Simona; Zingone, Fabiana; Ciacci, Carolina; Volta, Umberto; Caio, Giacomo; Tortora, Raffaella; Klersy, Catherine; Corazza, Gino R

2018-06-01

Coeliac disease is characterised by an increased mortality mostly due to its complications. To study the risk of developing complications according to clinical presentation and age at diagnosis, a combined retrospective-prospective longitudinal study was performed in three Italian centres. Incidence of complications and mortality rates were calculated using type and age at diagnosis of coeliac disease, sex, and centre of diagnosis as predictors. Patients referred after being found to suffer from coeliac disease elsewhere were excluded. Between 01/1999 and 06/2015, 2225 adult coeliac patients were directly diagnosed in our centres. 17 of them developed a complication and 29 died. In patients older than 60 years at diagnosis of coeliac disease, the risk of complication is 18 times higher than in patients diagnosed at 18-40 years and 9 times higher than in patients diagnosed at 40-60 years. Classical presentation increases the risk of complications by 7 times compared to non-classical presentation; in asymptomatic patients the risk of complication is virtually absent. The risk of developing complications in coeliac patients is linked to age at diagnosis of coeliac disease and type of clinical presentation. Follow-up methods of coeliac patients should be tailored according to these parameters. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Is copeptin level associated with 1-year mortality after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest? Insights from the Paris registry*.

PubMed

Geri, Guillaume; Dumas, Florence; Chenevier-Gobeaux, Camille; Bouglé, Adrien; Daviaud, Fabrice; Morichau-Beauchant, Tristan; Jouven, Xavier; Mira, Jean-Paul; Pène, Frédéric; Empana, Jean-Philippe; Cariou, Alain

2015-02-01

The availability of circulating biomarkers that helps to identify early out-of-hospital cardiac arrest survivors who are at increased risk of long-term mortality remains challenging. Our aim was to prospectively study the association between copeptin and 1-year mortality in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest admitted in a tertiary cardiac arrest center. Retrospective monocenter study. Tertiary cardiac arrest center in Paris, France. Copeptin was assessed at admission and day 3. Pre- and intrahospital factors associated with 1-year mortality were analyzed by multivariate Cox proportional analysis. None. Two hundred ninety-eight consecutive out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients (70.3% male; median age, 60.2 yr [49.9-71.4]) were admitted in a tertiary cardiac arrest center in Paris (France). After multivariate analysis, higher admission copeptin was associated with 1-year mortality with a threshold effect (hazard ratio(5th vs 1st quintile) = 1.64; 95% CI, 1.05-2.58; p = 0.03). Day 3 copeptin was associated with 1-year mortality in a dose-dependent manner (hazard ratio(2nd vs 1st quintile) = 1.87; 95% CI, 1.00-3.49; p = 0.05; hazard ratio(3rd vs 1st quintile) = 1.92; 95% CI, 1.02-3.64; p = 0.04; hazard ratio(4th vs 1st quintile) = 2.12; 95% CI, 1.14-3.93; p = 0.02; and hazard ratio(5th vs 1st quintile) = 2.75; 95% CI, 1.47-5.15; p < 0.01; p for trend < 0.01). For both admission and day 3 copeptin, association with 1-year mortality existed for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest of cardiac origin only (p for interaction = 0.05 and < 0.01, respectively). When admission and day 3 copeptin were mutually adjusted, only day 3 copeptin remained associated with 1-year mortality in a dose-dependent manner (p for trend = 0.01). High levels of copeptin were associated with 1-year mortality independently from prehospital and intrahospital risk factors, especially in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest of cardiac origin. Day 3 copeptin was superior to admission copeptin: this could permit identification of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest survivors at increased risk of mortality and allow for close observation of such patients.

Analysis of incidence, mortality and survival for pancreatic and biliary tract cancers across Europe, with assessment of influence of revised European age standardisation on estimates.

PubMed

Minicozzi, Pamela; Cassetti, Tiziana; Vener, Claudia; Sant, Milena

2018-05-16

Pancreatic (PC) and biliary tract (BTC) cancers have higher incidence and mortality in Europe than elsewhere. We analysed time-trends in PC/BTC incidence, mortality, and survival across Europe. Since the European standard population (ESP) was recently revised to better represent European age structure, we also assessed the effect of adopting the revised ESP to age-standardise incidence and mortality data. We analysed PCs/BTCs (≥15 years) diagnosed in 2000-2007 and followed-up to end of 2008, in 29 European countries across five regions: UK/Ireland, and northern, central, southern, and eastern Europe. Incidence, mortality, and 5-year relative survival were compared between regions, by age, sex, and period of diagnosis. Variation in age-standardised incidence (PC 12-15/100,000; BTC 2-6) and mortality (PC 10-14; BTC 1-5) was modest. Eastern Europe had highest incidence and mortality, and lowest survival; northern and southern Europe had highest age-specific incidence (most age groups) for PC and BTC, respectively. Incidence and survival increased slightly from 2000 to 2007, particularly in elderly patients and women, but survival remained poor (≤8% for PC; 13-18% for BTC). Use of the revised ESP for age-standardisation did not impact European regional incidence and mortality rankings. Poor survival for PC and BTC, together with increasing incidence, indicate that action is required. Countries with higher incidence had higher risk factor frequency, suggesting that prevention initiatives targeting risk factors should be promoted. Improvements in diagnosis and treatment are also required. Our results provide a baseline from which to monitor evolution of the PC/BTC burden in Europe. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Years of life lost due to influenza-attributable mortality in older adults in the Netherlands: a competing risks approach.

PubMed

McDonald, Scott A; van Wijhe, Maarten; van Asten, Liselotte; van der Hoek, Wim; Wallinga, Jacco

2018-02-06

We estimated the influenza mortality burden in adults 60 years of age and older in the Netherlands in terms of years of life lost, taking into account competing mortality risks. Weekly laboratory surveillance data for influenza and other respiratory pathogens and weekly extreme temperature served as covariates in Poisson regression models fitted to weekly age-group specific mortality data for the period 1999/2000 through 2012/13. Burden for age-groups 60-64 through 85-89 years was computed as years of life lost before age 90 (YLL90) using restricted mean lifetimes survival analysis and accounting for competing risks. Influenza-attributable mortality burden was greatest for persons aged 80-84 years, at 914 YLL90 per 100,000 persons (95% uncertainty interval:867, 963), followed by 85-89 years (787 YLL90/100,000; 95% uncertainty interval:741, 834). Ignoring competing mortality risks in the computation of influenza-attributable YLL90 would lead to substantial over-estimation of burden, from 3.5% for 60-64 years to 82% for persons aged 80-89 years at death. Failure to account for competing mortality risks has implications for accuracy of disease burden estimates, especially among persons aged 80 years and older. As the mortality burden borne by the elderly is notably high, prevention initiatives may benefit from being redesigned to more effectively prevent infection in the oldest age-groups. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Control strategies for a stochastic model of host-parasite interaction in a seasonal environment.

PubMed

Gómez-Corral, A; López García, M

2014-08-07

We examine a nonlinear stochastic model for the parasite load of a single host over a predetermined time interval. We use nonhomogeneous Poisson processes to model the acquisition of parasites, the parasite-induced host mortality, the natural (no parasite-induced) host mortality, and the reproduction and death of parasites within the host. Algebraic results are first obtained on the age-dependent distribution of the number of parasites infesting the host at an arbitrary time t. The interest is in control strategies based on isolation of the host and the use of an anthelmintic at a certain intervention instant t0. This means that the host is free living in a seasonal environment, and it is transferred to a uninfected area at age t0. In the uninfected area, the host does not acquire new parasites, undergoes a treatment to decrease the parasite load, and its natural and parasite-induced mortality are altered. For a suitable selection of t0, we present two control criteria that appropriately balance effectiveness and cost of intervention. Our approach is based on simple probabilistic principles, and it allows us to examine seasonal fluctuations of gastrointestinal nematode burden in growing lambs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fundamental Dimensions of Environmental Risk : The Impact of Harsh versus Unpredictable Environments on the Evolution and Development of Life History Strategies.

PubMed

Ellis, Bruce J; Figueredo, Aurelio José; Brumbach, Barbara H; Schlomer, Gabriel L

2009-06-01

The current paper synthesizes theory and data from the field of life history (LH) evolution to advance a new developmental theory of variation in human LH strategies. The theory posits that clusters of correlated LH traits (e.g., timing of puberty, age at sexual debut and first birth, parental investment strategies) lie on a slow-to-fast continuum; that harshness (externally caused levels of morbidity-mortality) and unpredictability (spatial-temporal variation in harshness) are the most fundamental environmental influences on the evolution and development of LH strategies; and that these influences depend on population densities and related levels of intraspecific competition and resource scarcity, on age schedules of mortality, on the sensitivity of morbidity-mortality to the organism's resource-allocation decisions, and on the extent to which environmental fluctuations affect individuals versus populations over short versus long timescales. These interrelated factors operate at evolutionary and developmental levels and should be distinguished because they exert distinctive effects on LH traits and are hierarchically operative in terms of primacy of influence. Although converging lines of evidence support core assumptions of the theory, many questions remain unanswered. This review demonstrates the value of applying a multilevel evolutionary-developmental approach to the analysis of a central feature of human phenotypic variation: LH strategy.

Type and Timing of Menopause and Later Life Mortality Among Women in the Iowa Established Populations for the Epidemiological Study of the Elderly Cohort

PubMed Central

Cooper, Rachel; Wallace, Robert B.; Guralnik, Jack M.

2012-01-01

Abstract Background The relationship between menopausal characteristics and later life mortality is unclear. We tested the hypotheses that women with surgical menopause would have increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality compared with women with natural menopause, and that women with earlier ages at natural or surgical menopause would have greater all-cause and cardiovascular mortality than women with later ages at menopause. Methods Women who participated in the Iowa cohort of the Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly (n=1684) reported menopausal characteristics and potential confounding variables at baseline and were followed up for up to 24 years. Participants were aged 65 years or older at baseline and lived in rural areas. We used survival analysis to examine the relationships between menopausal characteristics and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Results A total of 1477 women (87.7% of respondents) died during the study interval. Women with an age at natural menopause ≥55 years had increased all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality compared with women who had natural menopause at younger ages. Type of menopause and age at surgical menopause were not related to mortality. These patterns persisted after adjustment for potential confounding variables. Conclusions Among an older group of women from a rural area of the United States, later age at natural menopause was related to increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Monitoring the cardiovascular health of this group of older women may contribute to improved survival times. PMID:21970557

High levels of cynical distrust partly predict premature mortality in middle-aged to ageing men.

PubMed

Šmigelskas, Kastytis; Joffė, Roza; Jonynienė, Jolita; Julkunen, Juhani; Kauhanen, Jussi

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of cynical distrust on mortality in middle-aged and aging men. The analysis is based on Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease study, follow-up from 1984 to 2011. Sample consisted of 2682 men, aged 42-61 years at baseline. Data on mortality was provided by the National Death Registry, causes of death were classified by the National Center of Statistics of Finland. Cynical distrust was measured at baseline using Cynical Distrust Scale. Survival analyses were conducted using Cox regression models. In crude estimates after 28 years of follow-up, high cynical distrust was associated with 1.5-1.7 higher hazards for earlier death compared to low cynical distrust. Adjusted for conventional risk factors, high cynical distrust was significantly associated regarding CVD-free men and CVD mortality, while non-CVD mortality in study sample was consistently but not significantly associated. The risk effects were more expressed after 12-20 years rather than in earlier or later follow-up. To conclude, high cynical distrust associates with increased risk of CVD mortality in CVD-free men. The associations with non-CVD mortality are weaker and not reach statistical significance.

Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality trends in Andalusia (1980-2014).

PubMed

Cayuela, A; Cayuela, L; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; González, A; Moniche, F

2017-03-15

In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have decreased significantly in many countries. This study analyses recent tendencies in CVD mortality rates in Andalusia (1980-2014) to identify any changes in previously observed sex and age trends. CVD mortality and population data were obtained from Spain's National Statistics Institute database. We calculated age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates using the direct method (European standard population). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percentage change in rates and identify significant changes in mortality trends. We also estimated rate ratios between Andalusia and Spain. Standardised rates for both males and females showed 3 periods in joinpoint regression analysis: an initial period of significant decline (1980-1997), a period of rate stabilisation (1997-2003), and another period of significant decline (2003-2014). Between 1997 and 2003, age-standardised rates stabilised in Andalusia but continued to decrease in Spain as a whole. This increased in the gap between CVD mortality rates in Andalusia and Spain for both sexes and most age groups. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Rosuvastatin protects against angiotensin II-induced renal injury in a dose-dependent fashion.

PubMed

Park, Joon-Keun; Mervaala, Eero Ma; Muller, Dominik N; Menne, Jan; Fiebeler, Anette; Luft, Friedrich C; Haller, Hermann

2009-03-01

We showed earlier that statin treatment ameliorates target-organ injury in a transgenic model of angiotensin (Ang) II-induced hypertension. We now test the hypothesis that rosuvastatin (1, 10, and 50 mg/kg/day) influences leukocyte adhesion and infiltration, prevents induction of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS), and ameliorates target-organ damage in a dose-dependent fashion. We treated rats harboring the human renin and human angiotensinogen genes (dTGR) from week 4 to 8 (n = 20 per group). Untreated dTGR developed severe hypertension, cardiac hypertrophy, and renal damage, with a 100-fold increased albuminuria and focal cortical necrosis. Mortality of untreated dTGR at age 8 weeks was 59%. Rosuvastatin treatment decreased mortality dose-dependently. Blood pressure was not affected. Albuminuria was reduced dose-dependently. Interstitial adhesion molecule (ICAM)-1 expression was markedly reduced by rosuvastatin, as were neutrophil and monocyte infiltration. Immunohistochemistry showed an increased endothelial and medial iNOS expression in small vessels, infiltrating cells, afferent arterioles, and glomeruli of dTGR. Immunoreactivity was stronger in cortex than medulla. Rosuvastatin markedly reduced the iNOS expression in both cortex and medulla. Finally, matrix protein (type IV collagen, fibronectin) expression was also dose- dependently reduced by rosuvastatin. Our findings indicate that rosuvastatin dose- dependently ameliorates angiotensin II-induced-organ damage and almost completely prevents inflammation at the highest dose. The data implicate 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A function in signaling events leading to target-organ damage.

Knee pain and future self-reliance in older adults: evidence from a community-based 3-year cohort study in Japan.

PubMed

Nishiwaki, Yuji; Michikawa, Takehiro; Yamada, Mutsuko; Eto, Norihito; Takebayashi, Toru

2011-01-01

Although knee pain is common in older persons and can cause ambulatory limitation, its impact on self-reliance has rarely been examined in Japan, particularly in a community setting. The aim of this 3-year cohort study was to investigate the association of knee pain with dependence in activities of daily living (ADL) and mortality in community-dwelling older Japanese adults. In 2005, presence of knee pain was assessed by a home visit survey of 1391 older adults aged 65 years or older (participation proportion = 97.3%). A total of 1265 participants who were ADL-independent at baseline were followed for 3 years, and information on outcomes, namely death and dependence in ADL, was collected. Participants who always had knee pain were more likely to become dependent in ADL than those who reported no knee pain (multivariate-adjusted OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.03-3.83); however, always having knee pain was not associated with mortality or a composite outcome of ADL dependence and death. Further analyses of each component of ADL dependence revealed that knee pain was associated with a need for assistance at home (long-term care eligibility, bathing, dressing, and transferring), but not with institutionalization. The participants were highly representative of the target population and the rate of follow-up was almost perfect (99.4%). The results suggest that knee pain is associated with future dependence in ADL, particularly a need for assistance at home.

Age-specific excess mortality patterns and transmissibility during the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic in Madrid, Spain.

PubMed

Ramiro, Diego; Garcia, Sara; Casado, Yolanda; Cilek, Laura; Chowell, Gerardo

2018-05-01

Although the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic was one of the most important epidemic events of the 19th century, little is known about the mortality impact of this pandemic based on detailed respiratory mortality data sets. We estimated excess mortality rates for the 1889-1890 pandemic in Madrid from high-resolution respiratory and all-cause individual-level mortality data retrieved from the Gazeta de Madrid, the Official Bulletin of the Spanish government. We also generated estimates of the reproduction number from the early growth phase of the pandemic. The main pandemic wave in Madrid was evident from respiratory and all-cause mortality rates during the winter of 1889-1890. Our estimates of excess mortality for this pandemic were 58.3 per 10,000 for all-cause mortality and 44.5 per 10,000 for respiratory mortality. Age-specific excess mortality rates displayed a J-shape pattern, with school children aged 5-14 years experiencing the lowest respiratory excess death rates (8.8 excess respiratory deaths per 10,000), whereas older populations aged greater than or equal to 70 years had the highest rates (367.9 per 10,000). Although seniors experienced the highest absolute excess death rates, the standardized mortality ratio was highest among young adults aged 15-24 years. The early growth phase of the pandemic displayed dynamics consistent with an exponentially growing transmission process. Using the generalized-growth method, we estimated the reproduction number in the range of 1.2-1.3 assuming a 3-day mean generation interval and of 1.3-1.5 assuming a 4-day mean generation interval. Our study adds to our understanding of the mortality impact and transmissibility of the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic using detailed individual-level mortality data sets. More quantitative studies are needed to quantify the variability of the mortality impact of this understudied pandemic at regional and global scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Girl-child marriage and its association with morbidity and mortality of children under 5 years of age in a nationally-representative sample of Pakistan.

PubMed

Nasrullah, Muazzam; Zakar, Rubeena; Zakar, Muhammad Zakria; Krämer, Alexander

2014-03-01

To determine the relationship between child marriage (before age 18 years) and morbidity and mortality of children under 5 years of age in Pakistan beyond those attributed to social vulnerabilities. Nationally-representative cross-sectional observational survey data from Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, 2006-2007 was limited to children from the past 5 years, reported by ever-married women aged 15-24 years (n = 2630 births of n = 2138 mothers) to identify differences in infectious diseases in past 2 weeks (diarrhea, acute respiratory infection [ARI], ARI with fever), under 5 years of age and infant mortality, and low birth weight by early (<18) vs adult (≥ 18) age at marriage. Associations between child marriage and mortality and morbidity of children under 5 years of age were assessed by calculating adjusted OR using logistic regression models after controlling for maternal and child demographics. Majority (74.5%) of births were from mothers aged <18 years. Marriage before age 18 years increased the likelihood of recent diarrhea among children born to young mothers (adjusted OR = 1.59; 95% CI: 1.18-2.14). Even though maternal child marriage was associated with infant mortality and mortality of children under 5 years of age in unadjusted models, association was lost in the adjusted models. We did not find a relation between girl-child marriage and low birth weight infants, and ARI. Girl-child marriage increases the likelihood of recent diarrhea among children born to young mothers. Further qualitative and prospective quantitative studies are needed to understand the factors that may drive child morbidity and mortality among those married as children vs adults in Pakistan. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Preschool-Aged and School-Aged Children Present Different Odds of Mortality than Adults in Southern Taiwan: A Cross-Sectional Retrospective Analysis.

PubMed

Peng, Shu-Hui; Huang, Chun-Ying; Hsu, Shiun-Yuan; Yang, Li-Hui; Hsieh, Ching-Hua

2018-04-25

Background : This study aimed to profile the epidemiology of injury among preschool-aged and school-aged children in comparison to those in adults. Methods : According to the Trauma Registry System of a level I trauma center, the medical data were retrieved from 938 preschool-aged children (aged less than seven years), 670 school-aged children (aged 7⁻12 years), and 16,800 adults (aged 20⁻64 years) between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2016. Two-sided Pearson’s, chi-squared, and Fisher’s exact tests were used to compare categorical data. A one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with the Games-Howell post-hoc test was used to assess the differences in continuous variables among different groups of patients. The mortality outcomes of different subgroups were assessed by a multivariable regression model under the adjustment of sex, injury mechanisms, and injury severity. Results : InFsupppjury mechanisms in preschool-aged and school-aged children were remarkably different from that in adults; in preschool-aged children, burns were the most common cause of injury requiring hospitalization (37.4%), followed by falls (35.1%) and being struck by/against objects (11.6%). In school-aged children, injuries were most commonly sustained from falls (47.8%), followed by bicycle accidents (14%) and being struck by/against objects (12.5%). Compared to adults, there was no significant difference of the adjusted mortality of the preschool-aged children (AOR = 0.9; 95% CI 0.38⁻2.12; p = 0.792) but there were lower adjusted odds of mortality of the school-aged children (AOR = 0.4; 95% CI 0.10⁻0.85; p = 0.039). The school-aged children had lower odds of mortality than adults (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.06⁻0.74; p = 0.012), but such lower odds of risk of mortality were not found in preschool-aged children (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.29⁻1.81; p = 0.646). Conclusions : This study suggests that specific types of injuries from different injury mechanisms are predominant among preschool-aged and school-aged children. The school-aged children had lower odds of mortality than adults; nonetheless there was no difference in mortality rates of preschool-aged children than adults, with or without controlling for sex, injury mechanisms and ISS. These results highlight the importance of injury prevention, particularly for preschool-aged children in Southern Taiwan.

Impact of Oophorectomy on Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Women With a BRCA1 or BRCA2 Mutation

PubMed Central

Finch, Amy P.M.; Lubinski, Jan; Møller, Pål; Singer, Christian F.; Karlan, Beth; Senter, Leigha; Rosen, Barry; Maehle, Lovise; Ghadirian, Parviz; Cybulski, Cezary; Huzarski, Tomasz; Eisen, Andrea; Foulkes, William D.; Kim-Sing, Charmaine; Ainsworth, Peter; Tung, Nadine; Lynch, Henry T.; Neuhausen, Susan; Metcalfe, Kelly A.; Thompson, Islay; Murphy, Joan; Sun, Ping; Narod, Steven A.

2014-01-01

Purpose The purposes of this study were to estimate the reduction in risk of ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer in women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation after oophorectomy, by age of oophorectomy; to estimate the impact of prophylactic oophorectomy on all-cause mortality; and to estimate 5-year survival associated with clinically detected ovarian, occult, and peritoneal cancers diagnosed in the cohort. Patients and Methods Women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation were identified from an international registry; 5,783 women completed a baseline questionnaire and ≥ one follow-up questionnaires. Women were observed until either diagnosis of ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer, death, or date of most recent follow-up. Hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer incidence and all-cause mortality associated with oophorectomy were evaluated using time-dependent survival analyses. Results After an average follow-up period of 5.6 years, 186 women developed either ovarian (n = 132), fallopian (n = 22), or peritoneal (n = 32) cancer, of whom 68 have died. HR for ovarian, fallopian, or peritoneal cancer associated with bilateral oophorectomy was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.30; P < .001). Among women who had no history of cancer at baseline, HR for all-cause mortality to age 70 years associated with an oophorectomy was 0.23 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.39; P < .001). Conclusion Preventive oophorectomy was associated with an 80% reduction in the risk of ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer in BRCA1 or BRCA2 carriers and a 77% reduction in all-cause mortality. PMID:24567435

Impact of oophorectomy on cancer incidence and mortality in women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation.

PubMed

Finch, Amy P M; Lubinski, Jan; Møller, Pål; Singer, Christian F; Karlan, Beth; Senter, Leigha; Rosen, Barry; Maehle, Lovise; Ghadirian, Parviz; Cybulski, Cezary; Huzarski, Tomasz; Eisen, Andrea; Foulkes, William D; Kim-Sing, Charmaine; Ainsworth, Peter; Tung, Nadine; Lynch, Henry T; Neuhausen, Susan; Metcalfe, Kelly A; Thompson, Islay; Murphy, Joan; Sun, Ping; Narod, Steven A

2014-05-20

The purposes of this study were to estimate the reduction in risk of ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer in women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation after oophorectomy, by age of oophorectomy; to estimate the impact of prophylactic oophorectomy on all-cause mortality; and to estimate 5-year survival associated with clinically detected ovarian, occult, and peritoneal cancers diagnosed in the cohort. Women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation were identified from an international registry; 5,783 women completed a baseline questionnaire and ≥ one follow-up questionnaires. Women were observed until either diagnosis of ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer, death, or date of most recent follow-up. Hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer incidence and all-cause mortality associated with oophorectomy were evaluated using time-dependent survival analyses. After an average follow-up period of 5.6 years, 186 women developed either ovarian (n = 132), fallopian (n = 22), or peritoneal (n = 32) cancer, of whom 68 have died. HR for ovarian, fallopian, or peritoneal cancer associated with bilateral oophorectomy was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.30; P < .001). Among women who had no history of cancer at baseline, HR for all-cause mortality to age 70 years associated with an oophorectomy was 0.23 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.39; P < .001). Preventive oophorectomy was associated with an 80% reduction in the risk of ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer in BRCA1 or BRCA2 carriers and a 77% reduction in all-cause mortality. © 2014 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Mortality Rates After Emergent Posterior Fossa Decompression for Ischemic or Hemorrhagic Stroke in Older Patients.

PubMed

Puffer, Ross C; Graffeo, Christopher; Rabinstein, Alejandro; Van Gompel, Jamie J

2016-08-01

Cerebellar stroke causes major morbidity in the aging population. Guidelines from the American Stroke Association recommend emergent decompression in patients who have brainstem compression, hydrocephalus, or clinical deterioration. The objective of this study was to determine 30-day and 1-year mortality rates in patients >60 years old undergoing emergent posterior fossa decompression. Surgical records identified all patients >60 years old who underwent emergent posterior fossa decompression. Mortality rates were calculated at 30 days and 1 year postoperatively, and these rates were compared with patient and procedure characteristics. During 2000-2014, 34 emergent posterior fossa decompressions were performed in patients >60 years old. Mortality rates at 30 days were 0%, 33%, and 25% for age deciles 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and ≥80 years. Increasing age (alive at 30 days 75.2 years ± 1.7 vs. deceased 81.1 years ± 1.7, P = 0.01) and smaller craniectomy dimensions were associated with 30-day mortality. Mortality rates at 1 year were 0%, 50%, and 67% for age deciles 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and ≥80 years. Increasing age was significantly associated with mortality at 1 year (alive at 1 year 72.3 years ± 2.0 vs. deceased 81.1 years ± 1.2, P < 0.01). Type of pathology, side of pathology, volume of bleed/infarct, and placement of an external ventricular drain were not associated with mortality. Age was independent of admission Glasgow Coma Scale score as a predictor of mortality at 30 days, 90 days, and 1 year postoperatively. Increasing age and smaller craniectomy size were significantly associated with mortality in patients undergoing emergent posterior fossa decompression. Among patients ≥80 years old, one-quarter were dead within 1 month of the operation, and more than two-thirds were dead within 1 year. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cross-population validation of statistical distance as a measure of physiological dysregulation during aging.

PubMed

Cohen, Alan A; Milot, Emmanuel; Li, Qing; Legault, Véronique; Fried, Linda P; Ferrucci, Luigi

2014-09-01

Measuring physiological dysregulation during aging could be a key tool both to understand underlying aging mechanisms and to predict clinical outcomes in patients. However, most existing indices are either circular or hard to interpret biologically. Recently, we showed that statistical distance of 14 common blood biomarkers (a measure of how strange an individual's biomarker profile is) was associated with age and mortality in the WHAS II data set, validating its use as a measure of physiological dysregulation. Here, we extend the analyses to other data sets (WHAS I and InCHIANTI) to assess the stability of the measure across populations. We found that the statistical criteria used to determine the original 14 biomarkers produced diverging results across populations; in other words, had we started with a different data set, we would have chosen a different set of markers. Nonetheless, the same 14 markers (or the subset of 12 available for InCHIANTI) produced highly similar predictions of age and mortality. We include analyses of all combinatorial subsets of the markers and show that results do not depend much on biomarker choice or data set, but that more markers produce a stronger signal. We conclude that statistical distance as a measure of physiological dysregulation is stable across populations in Europe and North America. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Morbidity and mortality after emergency lower extremity embolectomy.

PubMed

Casillas-Berumen, Sergio; Sadri, Lili; Farber, Alik; Eslami, Mohammad H; Kalish, Jeffrey A; Rybin, Denis; Doros, Gheorghe; Siracuse, Jeffrey J

2017-03-01

Emergency lower extremity embolectomy is a common vascular surgical procedure that has poorly defined outcomes. Our goal was to define the perioperative morbidity for emergency embolectomy and develop a risk prediction model for perioperative mortality. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement database was queried to identify patients undergoing emergency unilateral and lower extremity embolectomy. Patients with previous critical limb ischemia, bilateral embolectomy, nonemergency indication, and those undergoing concurrent bypass were excluded. Patient characteristics and postoperative morbidity and mortality were analyzed. Multivariate analysis for predictors of mortality was performed, and from this, a risk prediction model was developed to identify preoperative predictors of mortality. There were 1749 patients (47.9% male) who met the inclusion criteria. The average age was 68.2 ± 14.8 years. Iliofemoral-popliteal embolectomy was performed in 1231 patients (70.4%), popliteal-tibioperoneal embolectomy in 303 (17.3%), and at both levels in 215 (12.3%). Fasciotomies were performed concurrently with embolectomy in 308 patients (17.6%). The 30-day postoperative mortality was 13.9%. Postoperative complications included myocardial infarction or cardiac arrest (4.7%), pulmonary complications (16.0%), and wound complications (8.2%). The rate of return to the operating room ≤30 days was 25.7%. Hospital length of stay was 9.8 ± 11.5 days, and the 30-day readmission rate was 16.3%. A perioperative mortality risk prediction model based on factors identified in multivariate analysis included age >70 years, male gender, functional dependence, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, recent myocardial infarction/angina, chronic renal insufficiency, and steroid use. The model showed good discrimination (C = 0.769; 95% confidence interval, 0733-0.806) and calibrated well. Emergency lower extremity embolectomy has high morbidity, mortality, and resource utilization. These data provide a benchmark for this complex patient population and may assist in risk stratifying patients, allowing for improved informed consent and goals of care at the time of presentation. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of patient characteristics and survival in two trauma centres located in different countries.

PubMed

Templeton, J; Oakley, P A; MacKenzie, G; Cook, A L; Brand, D; Mullins, R J; Trunkey, D D

2000-09-01

The aim of the study was to compare patient characteristics and mortality in severely injured patients in two trauma centres located in different countries, allowing for differences in case-mix. It represents a direct bench-marking exercise between the trauma centres at the North Staffordshire Hospital (NSH), Stoke-on-Trent, UK and the Oregon Health Sciences University (OHSU) Hospital, Portland, Oregon, USA. Patients of all ages admitted to the two hospitals during 1995 and 1996 with an Injury Severity Score >15 were included, except for those who died in the emergency departments. Twenty-three factors were studied, including the Injury Severity Score, Glasgow Coma Score, mechanism of injury and anatomical site of injury. Outcome analysis was based on mortality at discharge. The pattern of trauma differed significantly between Stoke and Portland. Patients from Stoke tended to be older, presented with a lower conscious level and a lower systolic blood pressure and were intubated less frequently before arriving at hospital. Mortality depended on similar factors in both centres, especially age, highest AIS score, systolic blood pressure and Glasgow Coma Score.The crude analysis of mortality showed a highly significant odds-ratio of 1.64 in Stoke compared with Portland. Single-factor adjustments were made for the above four factors, which had a similar influence on mortality in both centres. Adjusting for the first three factors individually did not alter the odds-ratio, which stayed in the range 1.53-1.59 and remained highly significant. Adjusting for the Glasgow Coma Score reduced the odds-ratio to 0.82 and rendered it non-significant. In a multi-factor logistic regression model incorporating all of the factors shown to influence mortality in either centre, the odds-ratio was 1.7 but was not significant. The analysis illustrates the limitations and pitfalls of making crude outcome comparisons between centres. Highly significant differences in crude mortality were rendered non-significant by case-mix adjustments, supporting the null hypothesis that the two centres were equally effective in terms of this short-term indicator of outcome. To achieve a meaningful comparison between centres, adjustments must be made for the factors which affect mortality.

Adjusting the HIV prevalence for non-respondents using mortality rates in an open cohort in northwest Tanzania.

PubMed

Tenu, Filemon; Isingo, Raphael; Zaba, Basia; Urassa, Mark; Todd, Jim

2014-06-01

To estimate HIV prevalence in adults who have not tested for HIV using age-specific mortality rates and to adjust the overall population HIV prevalence to include both tested and untested adults. An open cohort study was established since 1994 with demographic surveillance system (DSS) and five serological surveys conducted. Deaths from Kisesa DSS were used to estimate mortality rates and 95% confidence intervals by HIV status for 3- 5-year periods (1995-1999, 2000-2004, and 2005-2009). Assuming that mortality rates in individuals who did not test for HIV are similar to those in tested individuals, and dependent on age, sex and HIV status and HIV, prevalence was estimated. In 1995-1999, mortality rates (per 1000 person years) were 43.7 (95% CI 35.7-53.4) for HIV positive, 2.6 (95% CI 2.1-3.2) in HIV negative and 16.4 (95% CI 14.4-18.7) in untested. In 2000-2004, mortality rates were 43.3 (95% CI 36.2-51.9) in HIV positive, 3.3 (95% CI 2.8-4.0) in HIV negative and 11.9 (95% CI 10.5-13.6) in untested. In 2005-2009, mortality rates were 30.7 (95% CI 24.8-38.0) in HIV positive, 4.1 (95% CI 3.5-4.9) in HIV negative and 5.7 (95% CI 5.0-6.6) in untested residents. In the three survey periods (1995-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009), the adjusted period prevalences of HIV, including the untested, were 13.5%, 11.6% and 7.1%, compared with the observed prevalence in the tested of 6.0%, 6.8 and 8.0%. The estimated prevalence in the untested was 33.4%, 21.6% and 6.1% in the three survey periods. The simple model was able to estimate HIV prevalence where a DSS provided mortality data for untested residents. © 2014 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How long do centenarians survive? Life expectancy and maximum lifespan.

PubMed

Modig, K; Andersson, T; Vaupel, J; Rau, R; Ahlbom, A

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the pattern of mortality above the age of 100 years. In particular, we aimed to examine whether Scandinavian data support the theory that mortality reaches a plateau at particularly old ages. Whether the maximum length of life increases with time was also investigated. The analyses were based on individual level data on all Swedish and Danish centenarians born from 1870 to 1901; in total 3006 men and 10 963 women were included. Birth cohort-specific probabilities of dying were calculated. Exact ages were used for calculations of maximum length of life. Whether maximum age changed over time was analysed taking into account increases in cohort size. The results confirm that there has not been any improvement in mortality amongst centenarians in the past 30 years and that the current rise in life expectancy is driven by reductions in mortality below the age of 100 years. The death risks seem to reach a plateau of around 50% at the age 103 years for men and 107 years for women. Despite the rising life expectancy, the maximum age does not appear to increase, in particular after accounting for the increasing number of individuals of advanced age. Mortality amongst centenarians is not changing despite improvements at younger ages. An extension of the maximum lifespan and a sizeable extension of life expectancy both require reductions in mortality above the age of 100 years. © 2017 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Low migrant mortality in Germany for men aged 65 and older: fact or artifact?

PubMed Central

Scholz, Rembrandt; Shkolnikov, Vladimir M.

2008-01-01

Migrant mortality in Europe was found to be lower than mortality of host populations. In Germany, residents with migrant background constitute nearly one tenth of the population aged 65+ with about 40% of them being foreigners. The German Pension Scheme follows vital status of pensioners very accurately. Mortality re-estimation reveals two-fold underestimation of mortality of foreigners due to biased death numerator and population denominator. PMID:18418717

Spatially nonrandom tree mortality and ingrowth maintain equilibrium pattern in an old-growth Pseudotsuga-Tsuga forest.

PubMed

Lutz, James A; Larson, Andrew J; Furniss, Tucker J; Donato, Daniel C; Freund, James A; Swanson, Mark E; Bible, Kenneth J; Chen, Jiquan; Franklin, Jerry F

2014-08-01

Mortality processes in old-growth forests are generally assumed to be driven by gap-scale disturbance, with only a limited role ascribed to density-dependent mortality, but these assumptions are rarely tested with data sets incorporating repeated measurements. Using a 12-ha spatially explicit plot censused 13 years apart in an approximately 500-year-old Pseudotsuga-Tsuga forest, we demonstrate significant density-dependent mortality and spatially aggregated tree recruitment. However, the combined effect of these strongly nonrandom demographic processes was to maintain tree patterns in a state of dynamic equilibrium. Density-dependent mortality was most pronounced for the dominant late-successional species, Tsuga heterophylla. The long-lived, early-seral Pseudotsuga menziesii experienced an annual stem mortality rate of 0.84% and no new recruitment. Late-seral species Tsuga and Abies amabilis had nearly balanced demographic rates of ingrowth and mortality. The 2.34% mortality rate for Taxus brevifolia was higher than expected, notably less than ingrowth, and strongly affected by proximity to Tsuga. Large-diameter Tsuga structured both the regenerating conspecific and heterospecific cohorts with recruitment of Tsuga and Abies unlikely in neighborhoods crowded with large-diameter competitors (P < 0.001). Density-dependent competitive interactions strongly shape forest communities even five centuries after stand initiation, underscoring the dynamic nature of even equilibrial old-growth forests.

The 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City: age-specific timing, mortality, and transmission dynamics

PubMed Central

Yang, Wan; Petkova, Elisaveta; Shaman, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

Background The 1918 influenza pandemic caused disproportionately high mortality among certain age groups. The mechanisms underlying these differences are not fully understood. Objectives To explore the dynamics of the 1918 pandemic and to identify potential age-specific transmission patterns. Methods We examined 1915–1923 daily mortality data in New York City (NYC) and estimated the outbreak duration and initial effective reproductive number (Re) for each 1-year age cohort. Results Four pandemic waves occurred from February 1918 to April 1920. The fractional mortality increase (i.e. ratio of excess mortality to baseline mortality) was highest among teenagers during the first wave. This peak shifted to 25- to 29-year-olds in subsequent waves. The distribution of age-specific mortality during the last three waves was strongly correlated (r = 0·94 and 0·86). With each wave, the pandemic appeared to spread with a comparable early growth rate but then attenuate with varying rates. For the entire population, Re estimates made assuming 2-day serial interval were 1·74 (1·27), 1·74 (1·43), 1·66 (1·25), and 1·86 (1·37), respectively, during the first week (first 3 weeks) of each wave. Using age-specific mortality, the average Re estimates over the first week of each wave were 1·62 (95% CI: 1·55–1·68), 1·68 (1·65–1·72), 1·67 (1·61–1·73), and 1·69 (1·63–1·74), respectively; Re was not significantly different either among age cohorts or between waves. Conclusions The pandemic generally caused higher mortality among young adults and might have spread mainly among school-aged children during the first wave. We propose mechanisms to explain the timing and transmission dynamics of the four NYC pandemic waves. PMID:24299150

The effects of host age, host nuclear background and temperature on phenotypic effects of the virulent Wolbachia strain popcorn in Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Reynolds, K Tracy; Thomson, Linda J; Hoffmann, Ary A

2003-07-01

Because of their obligate endosymbiotic nature, Wolbachia strains by necessity are defined by their phenotypic effects upon their host. Nevertheless, studies on the influence of host background and environmental conditions upon the manifestation of Wolbachia effects are relatively uncommon. Here we examine the behavior of the overreplicating Wolbachia strain popcorn in four different Drosophila melanogaster backgrounds at two temperatures. Unlike other strains of Wolbachia in Drosophila, popcorn has a major fitness impact upon its hosts. The rapid proliferation of popcorn causes cells to rupture, resulting in the premature death of adult hosts. Apart from this effect, we found that popcorn delayed development time, and host background influenced both this trait and the rate of mortality associated with infection. Temperature influenced the impact of popcorn upon host mortality, with no reduction in life span occurring in flies reared at 19 degrees. No effect upon fecundity was found. Contrary to earlier reports, popcorn induced high levels of incompatibility when young males were used in tests, and CI levels declined rapidly with male age. The population dynamics of popcorn-type infections will therefore depend on environmental temperature, host background, and the age structure of the population.

Ontogeny of energy allocation reveals selective pressure promoting risk-taking behaviour in young fish cohorts

PubMed Central

Biro, Peter A; Post, John R; Abrahams, Mark V

2005-01-01

Given limited food, prey fishes in a temperate climate must take risks to acquire sufficient reserves for winter and/or to outgrow vulnerability to predation. However, how can we distinguish which selective pressure promotes risk-taking when larger body size is always beneficial? To address this question, we examined patterns of energy allocation in populations of age-0 trout to determine if greater risk-taking corresponds with energy allocation to lipids or to somatic growth. Trout achieved maximum growth rates in all lakes and allocated nearly all of their acquired energy to somatic growth when small in early summer. However, trout in low-food lakes took greater risks to achieve this maximal growth, and therefore incurred high mortality. By late summer, age-0 trout allocated considerable energy to lipids and used previously risky habitats in all lakes. These results indicate that: (i) the size-dependent risk of predation (which is independent of behaviour) promotes risk-taking behaviour of age-0 trout to increase growth and minimize time spent in vulnerable sizes; and (ii) the physiology of energy allocation and behaviour interact to mediate growth/mortality trade-offs for young animals at risk of predation and starvation. PMID:16011918

Trends in ischemic heart disease mortality in Korea, 1985-2009: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Hye Ah; Park, Hyesook

2012-09-01

Economic growth and development of medical technology help to improve the average life expectancy, but the western diet and rapid conversions to poor lifestyles lead an increasing risk of major chronic diseases. Coronary heart disease mortality in Korea has been on the increase, while showing a steady decline in the other industrialized countries. An age-period-cohort analysis can help understand the trends in mortality and predict the near future. We analyzed the time trends of ischemic heart disease mortality, which is on the increase, from 1985 to 2009 using an age-period-cohort model to characterize the effects of ischemic heart disease on changes in the mortality rate over time. All three effects on total ischemic heart disease mortality were statistically significant. Regarding the period effect, the mortality rate was decreased slightly in 2000 to 2004, after it had continuously increased since the late 1980s that trend was similar in both sexes. The expected age effect was noticeable, starting from the mid-60's. In addition, the age effect in women was more remarkable than that in men. Women born from the early 1900s to 1925 observed an increase in ischemic heart mortality. That cohort effect showed significance only in women. The future cohort effect might have a lasting impact on the risk of ischemic heart disease in women with the increasing elderly population, and a national prevention policy is need to establish management of high risk by considering the age-period-cohort effect.

[Maternal mortality in Spain, 1980-1992. Relationship with birth distributions according to the mother's age].

PubMed

Valero Juan, L F; Sáenz González, M C

1997-11-01

The maternal mortality evolution in Spain during the 1980-1992 period is reported. The influence of birth distribution according to maternal age is analyzed. The information was gathered from vital statistics published by Instituto Nacional de Estadística. The mortality rates have stabilized since 1985 (4.8 per 10(5) for 1992) associated with the increase in the proportion of births in women aged > or = 30 years (40.6% for 1992). Birth distributions according to maternal age account for 13.1% of the deaths observed. The predictions point to an increase in maternal mortality for the year 2000.

Has actuarial aging “slowed” over the past 250 years? A comparison of small-scale subsistence populations and European cohorts

PubMed Central

Gurven, Michael; Fenelon, Andrew

2012-01-01

G.C. Williams’ 1957 hypothesis famously argues that higher age-independent, or “extrinsic”, mortality should select for faster rates of senescence. Long-lived species should therefore show relatively few deaths from extrinsic causes such as predation and starvation. Theoretical explorations and empirical tests of Williams’ hypothesis have flourished in the past decade but it has not yet been tested empirically among humans. We test Williams’ hypothesis using mortality data from subsistence populations and from historical cohorts from Sweden and England/Wales, and examine whether rates of actuarial aging declined over the past two centuries. We employ three aging measures: mortality rate doubling time (MRDT), Ricklef’s ω, and the slope of mortality hazard from ages sixty to seventy, m’60–70, and model mortality using both Weibull and Gompertz-Makeham hazard models. We find that (1) actuarial aging in subsistence societies is similar to that of early Europe, (2) actuarial senescence has slowed in later European cohorts, (3) reductions in extrinsic mortality associate with slower actuarial aging in longitudinal samples, and (4) men senesce more rapidly than women, especially in later cohorts. To interpret these results, we attempt to bridge population-based evolutionary analysis with individual-level proximate mechanisms. PMID:19220451

Mortality in young adults in England and Wales: the impact of the HIV epidemic.

PubMed

Nylén, G; Mortimer, J; Evans, B; Gill, N

1999-08-20

To quantify the contribution of the HIV epidemic to premature mortality in England and Wales 1985-1996. Surveillance of deaths in HIV-infected individuals and causes of death from death certificates. Time trends in age-specific mortality rates among 15-44 year olds and years of potential life lost (YPLL) to age 65 associated with HIV infection and other important causes of death in young adults. The crude age-specific mortality rates for all causes of death in the 15-44 year age band remained fairly constant between 1985 and 1996: in other age bands a decrease was seen. Deaths from both suicide and HIV increased in men aged 15-44 years. Although suicide accounted for a greater number of deaths throughout the period investigated, the largest proportional and absolute increase was seen for deaths in HIV-infected people. By 1996, the contribution of HIV to YPLL to age 65 varied from less than 0.5% in most rural localities to 20% of total YPLL in one London health authority. While part of the adverse trend in mortality in younger adults since 1985 was attributable to suicide, most resulted from HIV infection. The impact of HIV infection on mortality was greatest in London.

Unintentional falls mortality among elderly in the United States: time for action.

PubMed

Alamgir, Hasanat; Muazzam, Sana; Nasrullah, Muazzam

2012-12-01

Fall injury is a leading cause of death and disability among older adults. The objective of this study is to identify the groups among the ≥ 65 population by age, gender, race, ethnicity and state of residence which are most vulnerable to unintentional fall mortality and report the trends in falls mortality in the United States. Using mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the age specific and age-adjusted fall mortality rates were calculated by gender, age, race, ethnicity and state of residence for a five year period (2003-2007). Annual percentage changes in rates were calculated and linear regression using natural logged rates were used for time-trend analysis. There were 79,386 fall fatalities (rate: 40.77 per 100,000 population) reported. The annual mortality rate varied from a low of 36.76 in 2003 to a high of 44.89 in 2007 with a 22.14% increase (p=0.002 for time-related trend) during 2003-2007. The rates among whites were higher compared to blacks (43.04 vs. 18.83; p=0.01). While comparing falls mortality rate for race by gender, white males had the highest mortality rate followed by white females. The rate was as low as 20.19 for Alabama and as high as 97.63 for New Mexico. The relative attribution of falls mortality among all unintentional injury mortality increased with age (23.19% for 65-69 years and 53.53% for 85+ years), and the proportion of falls mortality was significantly higher among females than males (46.9% vs. 40.7%: p<0.001) and among whites than blacks (45.3% vs. 24.7%: p<0.001). The burden of fall related mortality is very high and the rate is on the rise; however, the burden and trend varied by gender, age, race and ethnicity and also by state of residence. Strategies will be more effective in reducing fall-related mortality when high risk population groups are targeted. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gestational Age Patterns of Fetal and Neonatal Mortality in Europe: Results from the Euro-Peristat Project

PubMed Central

Mohangoo, Ashna D.; Buitendijk, Simone E.; Szamotulska, Katarzyna; Chalmers, Jim; Irgens, Lorentz M.; Bolumar, Francisco; Nijhuis, Jan G.; Zeitlin, Jennifer

2011-01-01

Background The first European Perinatal Health Report showed wide variability between European countries in fetal (2.6–9.1‰) and neonatal (1.6–5.7‰) mortality rates in 2004. We investigated gestational age patterns of fetal and neonatal mortality to improve our understanding of the differences between countries with low and high mortality. Methodology/Principal Findings Data on 29 countries/regions participating in the Euro-Peristat project were analyzed. Most European countries had no limits for the registration of live births, but substantial variations in limits for registration of stillbirths before 28 weeks of gestation existed. Country rankings changed markedly after excluding deaths most likely to be affected by registration differences (22–23 weeks for neonatal mortality and 22–27 weeks for fetal mortality). Countries with high fetal mortality ≥28 weeks had on average higher proportions of fetal deaths at and near term (≥37 weeks), while proportions of fetal deaths at earlier gestational ages (28–31 and 32–36 weeks) were higher in low fetal mortality countries. Countries with high neonatal mortality rates ≥24 weeks, all new member states of the European Union, had high gestational age-specific neonatal mortality rates for all gestational-age subgroups; they also had high fetal mortality, as well as high early and late neonatal mortality. In contrast, other countries with similar levels of neonatal mortality had varying levels of fetal mortality, and among these countries early and late neonatal mortality were negatively correlated. Conclusions For valid European comparisons, all countries should register births and deaths from at least 22 weeks of gestation and should be able to distinguish late terminations of pregnancy from stillbirths. After excluding deaths most likely to be influenced by existing registration differences, important variations in both levels and patterns of fetal and neonatal mortality rates were found. These disparities raise questions for future research about the effectiveness of medical policies and care in European countries. PMID:22110575

Competing mortality in patients diagnosed with bladder cancer: evidence of undertreatment in the elderly and female patients.

PubMed

Noon, A P; Albertsen, P C; Thomas, F; Rosario, D J; Catto, J W F

2013-04-16

Bladder cancer (BC) predominantly affects the elderly and is often the cause of death among patients with muscle-invasive disease. Clinicians lack quantitative estimates of competing mortality risks when considering treatments for BC. Our aim was to determine the bladder cancer-specific mortality (CSM) rate and other-cause mortality (OCM) rate for patients with newly diagnosed BC. Patients (n=3281) identified from a population-based cancer registry diagnosed between 1994 and 2009. Median follow-up was 48.15 months (IQ range 18.1-98.7). Competing risk analysis was performed within patient groups and outcomes compared using Gray's test. At 5 years after diagnosis, 1246 (40%) patients were dead: 617 (19%) from BC and 629 (19%) from other causes. The 5-year BC mortality rate varied between 1 and 59%, and OCM rate between 6 and 90%, depending primarily on the tumour type and patient age. Cancer-specific mortality was highest in the oldest patient groups. Few elderly patients received radical treatment for invasive cancer (52% vs 12% for patients <60 vs >80 years, respectively). Female patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive BC had worse CSM than equivalent males (Gray's P<0.01). Bladder CSM is highest among the elderly. Female patients with high-risk tumours are more likely to die of their disease compared with male patients. Clinicians should consider offering more aggressive treatment interventions among older patients.

Association between Down syndrome and mortality in young children with critical illness: a propensity-matched analysis.

PubMed

Gupta, Punkaj; Rettiganti, Mallikarjuna

2015-11-01

To evaluate the outcomes among critically ill young children with Down syndrome using propensity score matching from a national database. Patients in the age group from one day through 24 months admitted to an intensive care unit during their hospital stay at a Pediatric Health Information System (PHIS)-participating hospital (2004-2013) were included. Of the 293,697 patients who qualified for inclusion, 12,282 (4%) were classified in the Down syndrome group. Using propensity score matching, 10,477 patients with Down syndrome were matched one to one to patients without Down syndrome. Prior to matching, the mortality was significantly lower among the patients with Down syndrome (with vs. without Down syndrome, odds ratio (OR), 0.74; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.69-0.79; p < 0.001). After matching, the mortality was similar in both groups (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.87-1.07; p = 0.51). The mortality risk increased among the Down syndrome patients with increasing hospital length of stay (LOS). In this large, contemporary cohort, Down syndrome did not confer a significantly higher mortality risk among children with critical illness. However, children with Down syndrome followed a time-dependent, differential mortality risk with increased risk noted in relation to increasing hospital LOS. ©2015 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mortality with musculoskeletal disorders as underlying cause in Sweden 1997-2013: a time trend aggregate level study.

PubMed

Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Englund, Martin

2016-04-14

The aim was to assess time trend of mortality with musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) as underlying cause of death in Sweden from 1997 to 2013. We obtained data on MSD as underlying cause of death across age and sex groups from the National Board of Health and Welfare's Cause of Death Register. Age-standardized mortality rates per million population for all MSD, its six major subgroups, and all other ICD-10 (International Classification of Disease) chapters were calculated. We computed the average annual percent change (AAPC) in the mortality rates across age/sex groups using joinpoint regression analysis by fitting a regression line to the natural logarithm of the age-standardized mortality rates and calendar year as a predictor. There were a total of 7 976 deaths (0.5% of all causes deaths) with MSD as the underlying cause of death (32.5% of these deaths caused by rheumatoid arthritis [RA]). The overall age-standardized mortality rates (95% CI) were 16.0 (15.4 to 16.7) and 24.9 (24.1 to 25.7) per million among men and women, respectively (women/men rate ratio 1.55; 95%CI 1.47 to 1.63). On average, mortality rate declined by 2.3% per year and only circulatory system mortality had a more favourable decline than mortality with MSD as underlying cause. Among MSD the highest decline was observed in RA (3.7% per year) during study period. Across age groups, while there were generally stable or declining trends, spondylopathies and osteoporosis mortality among people ≥ 75 years increased by 2 and 1.5% per year, respectively. In overall, mortality with MSD as underlying cause has declined in Sweden over last two decades, with the highest decline for RA. However, there are variations across MSD subgroups which warrants further investigations.

Causes of death and expected years of life lost among treated opioid-dependent individuals in the United States and Taiwan.

PubMed

Chang, Kun-Chia; Wang, Jung-Der; Saxon, Andrew; Matthews, Abigail G; Woody, George; Hser, Yih-Ing

2017-05-01

This study compared the cause-specific standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and expected years of life lost (EYLL) among opioid-dependent individuals in the United States and Taiwan. Survival data came from two cohorts followed until 2014: The U.S. data were based on a randomized trial of 1267 opioid-dependent participants enrolled between 2006 and 2009; the Taiwan data were from a study of 983 individuals that began in 2006, when opioid agonist treatment (OAT) was implemented in Taiwan. SMRs were calculated for each national cohort and compared. Kaplan-Meier estimation was performed on the survival data, then lifespans were extrapolated to 70 years (840 months) to estimate life expectancy using a semi-parametric method. EYLLs for both cohorts were estimated by subtracting their life expectancies from the age- and gender-matched referents within the general population of their respective country. Compared with age- and gender-matched referents, the SMRs were 3.2 for the U.S. sample and 7.8 for the Taiwan sample; the EYLLs were 7.7 and 16.4 years, respectively. Half of decedents died of unnatural causes in both cohorts; overdose deaths predominated in the U.S. and suicide in Taiwan. Our study identified differences by country in EYLL and causes of deaths. These findings suggest that intervention strategies to reduce mortality risk by overdose (particularly in the U.S.) and suicide (particularly in Taiwan) are urgently needed in these countries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Daily home gardening improved survival for older people with mobility limitations: an 11-year follow-up study in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Lêng, Chhian Hūi; Wang, Jung-Der

2016-01-01

Aims To test the hypothesis that gardening is beneficial for survival after taking time-dependent comorbidities, mobility, and depression into account in a longitudinal middle-aged (50–64 years) and older (≥65 years) cohort in Taiwan. Methods The cohort contained 5,058 nationally sampled adults ≥50 years old from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging (1996–2007). Gardening was defined as growing flowers, gardening, or cultivating potted plants for pleasure with five different frequencies. We calculated hazard ratios for the mortality risks of gardening and adjusted the analysis for socioeconomic status, health behaviors and conditions, depression, mobility limitations, and comorbidities. Survival models also examined time-dependent effects and risks in each stratum contingent upon baseline mobility and depression. Sensitivity analyses used imputation methods for missing values. Results Daily home gardening was associated with a high survival rate (hazard ratio: 0.82; 95% confidence interval: 0.71–0.94). The benefits were robust for those with mobility limitations, but without depression at baseline (hazard ratio: 0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.48–0.87) when adjusted for time-dependent comorbidities, mobility limitations, and depression. Chronic or relapsed depression weakened the protection of gardening. For those without mobility limitations and not depressed at baseline, gardening had no effect. Sensitivity analyses using different imputation methods yielded similar results and corroborated the hypothesis. Conclusion Daily gardening for pleasure was associated with reduced mortality for Taiwanese >50 years old with mobility limitations but without depression. PMID:27486315

Haemodialysis-membrane biocompatibility and mortality of patients with dialysis-dependent acute renal failure: a prospective randomised multicentre trial. International Multicentre Study Group.

PubMed

Jörres, A; Gahl, G M; Dobis, C; Polenakovic, M H; Cakalaroski, K; Rutkowski, B; Kisielnicka, E; Krieter, D H; Rumpf, K W; Guenther, C; Gaus, W; Hoegel, J

1999-10-16

There is controversy as to whether haemodialysis-membrane biocompatibility (ie, the potential to activate complement and neutrophils) influences mortality of patients with acute renal failure. We did a prospective randomised multicentre trial in patients with dialysis-dependent acute renal failure treated with two different types of low-flux membrane. 180 patients with acute renal failure were randomly assigned bioincompatible Cuprophan (n=90) or polymethyl-methacrylate (n=90) membranes. The main outcome was survival 14 days after the end of therapy (treatment success). Odds ratios for survival were calculated and the two groups were compared by Fisher's exact test. Analyses were based on patients treated according to protocol (76 Cuprophan, 84 polymethyl methacrylate). At the start of dialysis, the groups did not differ significantly in age, sex, severity of illness (as calculated by APACHE II scores), prevalence of oliguria, or biochemical measures of acute renal failure. 44 patients (58% [95% CI 46-69]) assigned Cuprophan membranes and 50 patients (60% [48-70]) assigned polymethyl-methacrylate membranes survived. The odds ratio for treatment failure on Cuprophan compared with polymethyl-methacrylate membranes was 1.07 (0.54-2.11; p=0.87). No difference between Cuprophan and polymethyl-methacrylate membranes was detected when the analysis was adjusted for age and APACHE II score. 18 patients in the Cuprophan group and 20 in the polymethyl-methacrylate group had clinical complications of therapy (mainly hypotension). There were no differences in outcome for patients with dialysis-dependent acute renal failure between those treated with Cuprophan membranes and those treated with polymethyl-methacrylate membranes.

Time trends for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions: An age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Braga, Sonia Faria Mendes; de Souza, Mirian Carvalho; Cherchiglia, Mariangela Leal

2017-10-01

In the 1980s, an increase in mortality rates for prostate cancer was observed in North America and developed European countries. In the 1990s, however, mortality rates decreased for these countries, an outcome related to early detection of the disease. Conversely, an upward trend in mortality rates was observed in Brazil. This study describe the trends in mortality for prostate cancer in Brazil and geographic regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast, and Central-West) between 1980 until 2014 and analyze the influence of age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates. This time-series study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects on mortality rates were examined using age-period-cohort (APC) models. Crude and standardized mortality rates showed an upward trend for Brazil and its regions more than 2-fold the last 30 years. Age effects showed an increased risk of death in all regions. Period effects showed a higher risk of death in the finals periods for the North and Northeast. Cohort effects showed risk of death was higher for younger than older generations in Brazil and regions, mainly Northeast (RR Adjusted =3.12, 95% CI 1.29-1.41; RR Adjusted =0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.30, respectively). The increase in prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil and its regions was mainly due to population aging. The differences in mortality rates and APC effects between regions are related to demographic differences and access of health services across the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of functional status on 6-month mortality in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism: results from a prospective cohort.

PubMed

Gómez-Cuervo, Covadonga; Díaz-Pedroche, Carmen; Pérez-Jacoiste Asín, María Asunción; Lalueza, Antonio; Del Pozo, Roberto; Díaz-Simón, Raquel; Trapiello, Francisco; Paredes, Diana; Lumbreras, Carlos

2018-06-05

Functional status linked to a poor outcome in a broad spectrum of medical disorders. Barthel Activities of Daily Life Index (BADLI) is one of the most extended tools to quantify functional dependence. Whether BADLI can help to predict outcomes in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unknown. The current study aimed to ascertain the influence of BADLI on 6-month all-cause mortality in aged patients with VTE. This is a prospective observational study. We included consecutive patients older than 75-year-old with an acute VTE between April 2015 and April 2017. We analyzed several variables as mortality predictors, including BADLI-measured functional status. Afterward, we performed a multivariate analysis, using logistic regression, to identify all-cause mortality independent predictive factors. Two hundred and two subjects were included. Thirty-five (17%) patients died in the first 6 months. The leading cause of death was cancer (59%). After multivariable logistic regression, we identified BADLI and Charlson index as independent predictors for 6-months mortality [BADLI (every decrease of 10 points) OR 1.21 95% CI (1.03-1.42) and Charlson index OR 1.71 95% CI (1.21-2.43)]. Body mass index (BMI) values were inversely related to mortality [OR 0.85 95% CI (0.75-0.95)]. In conclusion, BADLI, BMI, and Charlson index scores are independent predictive factors for 6-month all-cause mortality in old patients with VTE.

Prostate cancer mortality in Serbia, 1991-2010: a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2016-06-01

The aim of this descriptive epidemiological study was to analyze the mortality trend of prostate cancer in Serbia (excluding the Kosovo and Metohia) from 1991 to 2010. The age-standardized prostate cancer mortality rates (per 100 000) were calculated by direct standardization, using the World Standard Population. Average annual percentage of change (AAPC) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) was computed for trend using the joinpoint regression analysis. Significantly increased trend in prostate cancer mortality was recorded in Serbia continuously from 1991 to 2010 (AAPC = +2.2, 95% CI = 1.6-2.9). Mortality rates for prostate cancer showed a significant upward trend in all men aged 50 and over: AAPC (95% CI) was +1.9% (0.1-3.8) in aged 50-59 years, +1.7% (0.9-2.6) in aged 60-69 years, +2.0% (1.2-2.9) in aged 70-79 years and +3.5% (2.4-4.6) in aged 80 years and over. According to comparability test, prostate cancer mortality trends in majority of age groups were parallel (final selected model failed to reject parallelism, P > 0.05). The increasing prostate cancer mortality trend implies the need for more effective measures of prevention, screening and early diagnosis, as well as prostate cancer treatment in Serbia. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Widening social inequalities in mortality: the case of Barcelona, a southern European city.

PubMed Central

Borrell, C; Plasència, A; Pasarin, I; Ortún, V

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To analyse trends in mortality inequalities in Barcelona between 1983 and 1994 by comparing rates in those electoral wards with a low socioeconomic level and rates in the remaining wards. DESIGN: Mortality trends study. SETTING: The city of Barcelona (Spain). SUBJECTS: The study included all deaths among residents of the two groups of city wards. Details were obtained from death certificates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age standardised mortality rates, age standardised rates of years of potential life lost, and age specific mortality rates in relation to cause of death, sex, and year were computed as well as the comparative mortality figure and the ratio of standardised rates of years of potential life lost. RESULTS: Rates of premature mortality increased from 5691.2 years of potential life lost per 100,000 inhabitants aged 1 to 70 years in 1983 to 7606.2 in 1994 in the low socioeconomic level wards, and from 3731.2 to 4236.9 in the other wards, showing an increase in inequalities over the 12 years, mostly due to AIDS and drug overdose as causes of death. Conversely, cerebrovascular disease showed a reduction in inequality over the same period. Overall mortality in the 15-44 age group widened the gap between both groups of wards. CONCLUSION: AIDS and drug overdose are emerging as the causes of death that are contributing to a substantial increase in social inequality in terms of premature mortality, an unreported observation in European urban areas. PMID:9519129

[Mortality by avoidable causes in preschool children].

PubMed

Lurán, Albenia; López, Elizabeth; Pinilla, Consuelo; Sierra, Pedro

2009-03-01

The infant-mortality rate in children aged less than five is an indicator of the general state of health of a population and directly reflects the quality of life and the level of socio-economic development of a country. Avoidable mortality was assessed in preschool children as a reflection of Colombia quality of life and socio-economic development. Mortality trends were analyzed in preschool children aged less than five throughout Colombia during a 20-year period from 1985-2004, and focused on mortality causes that were considered avoidable. This was a descriptive, retrospective study; the sources of information were Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística records of deaths and population projections 1985-2004. Mortality rate due to avoidable causes was the statistical indicator. In children aged less than one, the reducible mortality due to "early diagnosis and medical treatment" occupied the first place amongst causes for every year of the study period and accounted for more than 50% of recorded deaths. In children aged 1 to 4, the category "other important reducible causes" was associated with 40% of recorded deaths-deaths due mainly to respiratory diseases. Over the 20-year period, the avoidable mortality rate decreased by 34% in children aged less than one, in children 1-4, it decreased by 23%. Although the infant-mortality rate in preschool children was reduced, the decrease was small, from 80% to 77%. The situation requires more analysis with respect to strategies in public health, particularly concerning preventable diseases of the infancy.

Body mass trajectories, diabetes mellitus, and mortality in a large cohort of Austrian adults.

PubMed

Peter, Raphael Simon; Keller, Ferdinand; Klenk, Jochen; Concin, Hans; Nagel, Gabriele

2016-12-01

There are only few studies on latent trajectories of body mass index (BMI) and their association with diabetes incidence and mortality in adults.We used data of the Vorarlberg Health Monitoring & Prevention Program and included individuals (N=24,875) with BMI measurements over a 12-year period. Trajectory classes were identified using growth mixture modeling for predefined age groups (<50, 50-65, >65 years of age) and men, women separately. Poisson models were applied to estimate incidence and prevalence of diabetes for each trajectory class. Relative all-cause mortality and diabetes-related mortality was estimated using Cox proportional hazard regression.We identified 4 trajectory classes for the age groups <50 years and 50 to 65 years, and 3 for age groups >65 years. For all age groups, a stable BMI trajectory class was the largest, with about 90% of men and 70% to 80% of women. For the low stable BMI classes, the corresponding fasting glucose levels were the lowest. The highest diabetes prevalences were observed for decreasing trajectories. During subsequent follow-up of mean 8.1 (SD 2.0) years, 2741 individuals died. For men <50 years, highest mortality was observed for steady weight gainers. For all other age-sex groups, mortality was the highest for decreasing trajectories.We found considerably heterogeneity in BMI trajectories by sex and age. Stable weight, however, was the largest class over all age and sex groups, and was associated with the lowest diabetes incidence and mortality suggesting that maintaining weight at a moderate level is an important public health goal.

The Mortality Divide in India: The Differential Contributions of Gender, Caste, and Standard of Living Across the Life Course

PubMed Central

Subramanian, S.V.; Nandy, Shailen; Irving, Michelle; Gordon, Dave; Lambert, Helen; Davey Smith, George

2006-01-01

Objectives. We investigated the contributions of gender, caste, and standard of living to inequalities in mortality across the life course in India. Methods. We conducted a multilevel cross-sectional analysis of individual mortality, using the 1998–1999 Indian National Family Health Survey data for 529321 individuals from 26 states. Results. Substantial mortality differentials were observed between the lowest and highest standard-of-living quintiles across all age groups, ranging from an odds ratio (OR) of 4.61 (95% confidence interval [CI]=2.98, 7.13) in the age group 2 to 5 years to an OR of 1.97 (95% CI=1.68, 2.32) in the age group 45 to 64 years. Excess mortality for girls was evident only for the age group 2 to 5 years (OR=1.33, 95% CI=1.13, 1.58). Substantial caste differentials were observed at the beginning and end stages of life. Area variation in mortality is partially a result of the compositional effects of household standard of living and caste. Conclusions. The mortality burden, across the life course in India, falls disproportionately on economically disadvantaged and lower-caste groups. Residual state-level variation in mortality suggests an underlying ecology to the mortality divide in India. PMID:16571702

The mortality divide in India: the differential contributions of gender, caste, and standard of living across the life course.

PubMed

Subramanian, S V; Nandy, Shailen; Irving, Michelle; Gordon, Dave; Lambert, Helen; Davey Smith, George

2006-05-01

We investigated the contributions of gender, caste, and standard of living to inequalities in mortality across the life course in India. We conducted a multilevel cross-sectional analysis of individual mortality, using the 1998-1999 Indian National Family Health Survey data for 529321 individuals from 26 states. Substantial mortality differentials were observed between the lowest and highest standard-of-living quintiles across all age groups, ranging from an odds ratio (OR) of 4.61 (95% confidence interval [CI]=2.98, 7.13) in the age group 2 to 5 years to an OR of 1.97 (95% CI=1.68, 2.32) in the age group 45 to 64 years. Excess mortality for girls was evident only for the age group 2 to 5 years (OR=1.33, 95% CI=1.13, 1.58). Substantial caste differentials were observed at the beginning and end stages of life. Area variation in mortality is partially a result of the compositional effects of household standard of living and caste. The mortality burden, across the life course in India, falls disproportionately on economically disadvantaged and lower-caste groups. Residual state-level variation in mortality suggests an underlying ecology to the mortality divide in India.

Social capital in a changing society: cross sectional associations with middle aged female and male mortality rates.

PubMed

Skrabski, A; Kopp, M; Kawachi, I

2003-02-01

Social capital has been linked to self rated health and mortality rates. The authors examined the relations between measures of social capital and male/female mortality rates across counties in Hungary. Cross sectional, ecological study. 20 counties of Hungary. 12,640 people were interviewed in 1995 (the "Hungarostudy II" survey), representing the Hungarian population according to sex, age, and county. Social capital was measured by three indicators: lack of social trust, reciprocity between citizens, and help received from civil organisations. Covariates included county GDP, personal income, education, unemployment, smoking, and alcohol spirit consumption. Gender specific mortality rates were calculated for the middle aged population (45-64 years) in the 20 counties of Hungary. All of the social capital variables were significantly associated with middle age mortality, but levels of mistrust showed the strongest association. Several gender differences were observed, namely male mortality rates were more closely associated with lack of help from civic organisations, while female mortality rates were more closely connected with perceptions of reciprocity. There are gender differences in the relations of specific social capital indicators to mortality rates. At the same time, perceptions of social capital within each sex were associated with mortality rates in the opposite sex.

To live and die in L.A. County: neighborhood economic and social context and premature age-specific mortality rates among Latinos.

PubMed

Bjornstrom, Eileen

2011-01-01

This ecological study compares the utility of neighborhood economic, social, and co-ethnic concentration characteristics in explaining mortality among Latinos aged 25-64 due to all causes and heart disease in Los Angeles County from 2000 to 2004. Results indicate that local economic well-being and social resources are beneficial for both outcomes to varying degrees. Economic well-being is the strongest predictor of all-cause mortality rates among Latinos aged 25-64 and was the only characteristic that significantly predicted heart disease mortality among those aged 45-64. Among social resources, results indicate collective efficacy is comparatively more important for mortality in younger adults. Social interaction was associated with lower mortality but the effect was not significant for any outcome. Co-ethnic concentration was consistently associated with increased mortality, but only achieved significance for all-cause mortality in younger adults. This effect was mediated by neighborhood income. Though social resources appear to be beneficial to a lesser extent, results suggest policy should first aim to address income disparities across local communities. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Trends in the mortality of liver cancer in Qidong, China: an analysis of fifty years].

PubMed

Chen, Jian-guo; Zhu, Jian; Zhang, Yong-hui; Chen, Yong-sheng; Ding, Lu-lu; Lu, Jian-hua; Zhu, Yuan-rong

2012-07-01

To describe and analyze the charecteristics and trends of liver cancer mortality during the past fifty years in Qidong, China. Retrospective mortality survey was conducted to get the data on liver cancer death in the period of 1958-1971, and the data from 1972 to 2007 were obtained from the records of cancer registration in Qidong. The crude mortality rate (CR) of liver cancer, and age-standardized rate by Chinese population (CASR) and by world population (WASR) were calculated and analyzed. The total percent changes (PC) and annual percent changes (APC) were used for evaluating the increasing trends of the mortality. The sex-specific rate, age-specific rate, truncated rate of the age group 35 - 64, cumulative rate of the age group 0-74, cumulative risk, period-rate, and the rate for age-birth cohort were compared. The natural death rate in Qidong residents for the past five-decade period experienced a wave interval of 8.62‰ in 1958 down to 5.37‰ in 1979, and up to 7.75‰ in 2007. The mortality rate for all-site cancers was increased from 56.69 per 100, 000 to 234.97 per 100, 000. The mortality rate of liver cancer, being 20.45 per 100, 100 in 1958 was increased to 49.04 per 100, 000 in 1972, and up to 69.29 per 100, 000 in 2007. According to the registration data of 1972 - 2007, the death from liver cancer was accounted for 34.88% of all deaths due to cancers, with a CR of 58.86 per 100, 000, CASR of 38.36 per 100, 000, and WASR, 49.37 Per 100, 000 in Qidong. The truncated rate for the age group 35 - 64 was 117.08 per 100, 000, and the cumulative rate for the age group 0-74 and the cumulative risk were 5.15% and 5.02%, respectively. The CRs for males was 90.52 per 100, 000 and for females was 27.93 per 100, 000, with a sex ratio of 3.24:1. For the period of 1972 - 2007, the PC for CR was 49.71%, and APC was +1.41%, showing an increasing variation tendency. The APCs for CASR and WASR, however, were decreasing, with a percentage of -1.11%, and -0.84%, respectively. The age-specific mortality rates by period showed a decreasing trend for those under age of 44. Moreover, age-birth cohort analysis showed a more rapid lowering mortality in the age groups 35-, 30-, 25-, and 15-, that is, those born after 1950's. Liver cancer remains the leading death cause due to cancers in Qidong, with a continuing higher crude mortality rate. Yet the age-standardized mortality rate has presented a declining posture. The liver cancer mortality in young people in Qidong demonstrates a continuously falling trend. The campaign for the control of liver cancer in Qidong has achieved initial success.

Anemia: An Independent Predictor Of Adverse Outcomes In Older Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

PubMed

Ali, Ali N; Athavale, Nandkishor V; Abdelhafiz, Ahmed H

2016-01-01

Both anemia and atrial fibrillation are common in older people and their prevalence is age dependent which increases as population ages. Anemia, especially acute onset, predisposes to new onset atrial fibrillation which is likely to be mediated through inducing heart failure first and this predisposition seems to be potentiated by the presence of renal impairment. Anemia adds to the comorbidity burden of patients with atrial fibrillation and independently increases the risks of adverse outcomes such as increased hospitalization, mortality, bleeding and thromboembolic events. Early detection and correction of anemia in patients with atrial fibrillation may have a positive impact on reducing these adverse events.

The impact of development and population policies on fertility in India.

PubMed

Jain, A K

1985-01-01

This article examines the impact of development and population policies on fertility decline and regional variations in India during the 1970s. Indicators of development at the household level include female literacy and education, infant mortality, and poverty; at the village level they include availability of such social services as schools, medical facilities, and transportation and communication facilities. Multiple regression analysis of data aggregated at the state level demonstrates that conditions conducive to fertility decline include high adult female literacy and low infant mortality as indicators of social development, and high contraceptive use and, to a lesser extent, high female age at marriage as proximate determinants of fertility. There are reasons to believe that India's national family planning program contributed to the decline in fertility observed since the 1960s. The pace of fertility decline in the future will depend upon the pace of infant mortality decline, enhancement in female education, and improvements in family planning programs.

Threshold Levels of Infant and Under-Five Mortality for Crossover between Life Expectancies at Ages Zero, One and Five in India: A Decomposition Analysis.

PubMed

Dubey, Manisha; Ram, Usha; Ram, Faujdar

2015-01-01

Under the prevailing conditions of imbalanced life table and historic gender discrimination in India, our study examines crossover between life expectancies at ages zero, one and five years for India and quantifies the relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards this crossover. We estimate threshold levels of infant and under-five mortality required for crossover using age specific death rates during 1981-2009 for 16 Indian states by sex (comprising of India's 90% population in 2011). Kitagawa decomposition equations were used to analyse relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards crossover. India experienced crossover between life expectancies at ages zero and five in 2004 for menand in 2009 for women; eleven and nine Indian states have experienced this crossover for men and women, respectively. Men usually experienced crossover four years earlier than the women. Improvements in mortality below ages five have mostly contributed towards this crossover. Life expectancy at age one exceeds that at age zero for both men and women in India except for Kerala (the only state to experience this crossover in 2000 for men and 1999 for women). For India, using life expectancy at age zero and under-five mortality rate together may be more meaningful to measure overall health of its people until the crossover. Delayed crossover for women, despite higher life expectancy at birth than for men reiterates that Indian women are still disadvantaged and hence use of life expectancies at ages zero, one and five become important for India. Greater programmatic efforts to control leading causes of death during the first month and 1-59 months in high child mortality areas can help India to attain this crossover early.

Mortality of colorectal cancer in Taiwan, 1971-2010: temporal changes and age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Su, Shih-Yung; Huang, Jing-Yang; Jian, Zhi-Hong; Ho, Chien-Chang; Lung, Chia-Chi; Liaw, Yung-Po

2012-12-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common cause of cancer death in developed countries among men (after lung cancer) and the third most common among women. This study thus examines the long-term trends of CRC mortality in Taiwan. CRC cases were collective between patients aged 30 years or older and younger than 85 years from the Taiwan death registries during 1971-2010. Standard descriptive techniques such as age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), aural percent change, and age-period-cohort analyses were used. The increase of percentage change by each age group in men was higher than in women. The ASMR of CRC increased 2-fold for men and almost 1.5-fold for women during the periods 1971-1975 and 2006-2010. For age-period-cohort analysis, the estimated mortality rate increased steadily with age in both sexes, and plateaued at 175.29 per 100,000 people for men and 128.14 per 100,000 for women in the 80- to 84-year-old group. Period effects were weak in both sexes. Cohort effects were strong. Between 30 and 59 years of age, the sex ratio showed that the female CRC mortality rate was higher than that of their male counterparts. Conversely, the mortality risk of CRC in men was higher than that in women when they were between 60 and 84 years old. The current findings showed a consistent increase in mortality from CRC over the years. Changes in the patient sex ratio indicated an important etiological role of sex hormones, especially in women aged 60 years or younger.

Manatee mortality in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mignucci-Giannoni, A. A.; Montoya-Ospina, R. A.; Jimenez-Marrero, N. M.; Rodriguez-Lopez, M.; Williams, E.H.; Bonde, R.K.

2000-01-01

The most pressing problem in the effective management of the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus) in Puerto Rico is mortality due to human activities. We assessed 90 cases of manatee strandings in Puerto Rico based on historical data and a coordinated carcass salvage effort from 1990 through 1995. We determined patterns of mortality, including type of event, condition of carcasses, spatial and temporal distribution, gender, size/age class, and the cause of death. The spatial distribution of stranding events was not uniform, with the north, northeast, and south coasts having the highest numbers. Six clusters representing the highest incidence included the areas of Fajardo and Ceiba, Bahia de Jobos, Toa Baja, Guayanilla, Cabo Rojo, and Rio Grande to Luquillo. The number of reported cases has increased at an average rate of 9.6%/yr since 1990. The seasonality of stranding events showed a bimodal pattern, from February through April and in August and September. Most identified causes of death were due to human interaction, especially captures and watercraft collisions. Natural causes usually involved dependent calves. From 1990 through 1995, most deaths were attributed to watercraft collisions. A reduction in anthropogenic mortality of this endangered species can be accomplished only through education and a proactive management and conservation plan that includes law enforcement, mortality assessment, scientific research, rescue and rehabilitation, and inter- and intraagency cooperation.

Risk of death and readmission of hospital-admitted COPD exacerbations: European COPD Audit.

PubMed

Hartl, Sylvia; Lopez-Campos, Jose Luis; Pozo-Rodriguez, Francisco; Castro-Acosta, Ady; Studnicka, Michael; Kaiser, Bernhard; Roberts, C Michael

2016-01-01

Studies report high in-hospital and post-discharge mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations varying depending upon patient characteristics, hospital resources and treatment standards. This study aimed to investigate the patient, resource and organisational factors associated with in-hospital and 90-day post-discharge mortality and readmission of COPD exacerbations within the European COPD Audit. The audit collected data of COPD exacerbation admissions from 13 European countries.On admission, only 49.7% of COPD patients had spirometry results available and only 81.6% had blood gases taken. Using logistic regression analysis, the risk associated with in-hospital and post-discharge mortality was higher age, presence of acidotic respiratory failure, subsequent need for ventilatory support and presence of comorbidity. In addition, the 90-day risk of COPD readmission was associated with previous admissions. Only the number of respiratory specialists per 1000 beds, a variable related to hospital resources, decreased the risk of post-discharge mortality.The European COPD Audit identifies risk factors associated with in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and COPD readmission. Addressing the deficiencies in acute COPD care such as making spirometry available and measuring blood gases and providing noninvasive ventilation more regularly would provide opportunities to improve COPD outcomes. Copyright ©ERS 2016.

Mortality in perforated duodenal ulcer depends upon pre-operative risk: a retrospective 10-year study.

PubMed

Larkin, J O; Bourke, M G; Muhammed, A; Waldron, R; Barry, K; Eustace, P W

2010-12-01

Most patients presenting with acutely perforated duodenal ulcer undergo operation, but conservative treatment may be indicated when an ulcer has spontaneously sealed with minimal/localised peritoneal irritation or when the patient's premorbid performance status is poor. We retrospectively reviewed our experience with operative and conservative management of perforated duodenal ulcers over a 10-year period and analysed outcome according to American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score. The records of all patients presenting with perforated duodenal ulcer to the Department of Surgery, Mayo General Hospital, between January 1998 and December 2007 were reviewed. Age, gender, co-morbidity, ASA-score, clinical presentation, mode of management, operative procedures, morbidity and mortality were considered. Of 76 patients included, 48 (44 operative, 4 conservative) were ASA I-III, with no mortality irrespective of treatment. Amongst 28 patients with ASA-score IV/V, mortality was 54.5% (6/11) following operative management and 52.9% (9/17) with conservative management. In patients with a perforated duodenal ulcer and ASA-score I-III, postoperative outcome is uniformly favourable. We recommend these patients have repair with peritoneal lavage performed, routinely followed postoperatively by empirical triple therapy. Given that mortality is equivalent between ASA IV/V patients whether managed operatively or conservatively, we suggest that both management options are equally justifiable.

DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death

PubMed Central

Chen, Brian H.; Marioni, Riccardo E.; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J.; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K.; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S.; Just, Allan C.; Demerath, Ellen W.; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R.; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P.; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Murabito, Joanne M.; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G.; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C.; Price, Timothy R.; Singleton, Andrew B.; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M.; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R.; McRae, Allan F.; Franco, Oscar H.; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G.; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E.; Lu, Ake T.; Tsao, Philip S.; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E.; Carty, Cara L.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Spector, Tim D.; Feinberg, Andrew P.; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T.; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J.; Pankow, James S.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

2016-01-01

Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as “epigenetic age”, “DNAm age”, have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2×10−9), independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4×10−4), and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5×10−43). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality. PMID:27690265

Life Years Lost and Lifetime Health Care Expenditures Associated With Diabetes in the U.S., National Health Interview Survey, 1997–2000

PubMed Central

Leung, Man-Yee Mallory; Pollack, Lisa M.; Colditz, Graham A.

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE This study analyzed the lifetime health care expenditures and life years lost associated with diabetes in the U.S. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey from 1997 to 2000, and the NHIS Linked Mortality Public-use Files with a mortality follow-up to 2006 were used to estimate age-, race-, sex-, and BMI-specific risk of diabetes, mortality, and annual health care expenditures for both patients with diabetes and those without diabetes. A Markov model populated by the risk and cost estimates was used to compute life years and total lifetime health care expenditures by age, race, sex, and BMI classifications for patients with diabetes and without diabetes. RESULTS Predicted life expectancy for patients with diabetes and without diabetes demonstrated an inverted U shape across most BMI classifications, with highest life expectancy being for the overweight. Lifetime health care expenditures were higher for whites than blacks and for females than males. Using U.S. adults aged 50 years as an example, we found that diabetic white females with a BMI >40 kg/m2 had 17.9 remaining life years and lifetime health expenditures of $185,609, whereas diabetic white females with normal weight had 22.2 remaining life years and lifetime health expenditures of $183,704. CONCLUSIONS Our results show that diabetes is associated with large decreases in life expectancy and large increases in lifetime health care expenditures. In addition to decreasing life expectancy by 3.3 to 18.7 years, diabetes increased lifetime health care expenditures by $8,946 to $159,380 depending on age-race-sex-BMI classification groups. PMID:25552420

Liver cancer mortality rate model in Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sriwattanapongse, Wattanavadee; Prasitwattanaseree, Sukon

2013-09-01

Liver Cancer has been a leading cause of death in Thailand. The purpose of this study was to model and forecast liver cancer mortality rate in Thailand using death certificate reports. A retrospective analysis of the liver cancer mortality rate was conducted. Numbering of 123,280 liver cancer causes of death cases were obtained from the national vital registration database for the 10-year period from 2000 to 2009, provided by the Ministry of Interior and coded as cause-of-death using ICD-10 by the Ministry of Public Health. Multivariate regression model was used for modeling and forecasting age-specific liver cancer mortality rates in Thailand. Liver cancer mortality increased with increasing age for each sex and was also higher in the North East provinces. The trends of liver cancer mortality remained stable in most age groups with increases during ten-year period (2000 to 2009) in the Northern and Southern. Liver cancer mortality was higher in males and increase with increasing age. There is need of liver cancer control measures to remain on a sustained and long-term basis for the high liver cancer burden rate of Thailand.

Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil.

PubMed

de Souza Giusti, Angela Carolina Brandão; de Oliveira Salvador, Pétala Tuani Candido; Dos Santos, Juliano; Meira, Karina Cardoso; Camacho, Amanda Rodrigues; Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Souza, Dyego L B

2016-07-28

To analyze the effect of age-period and birth cohort on gastric cancer mortality, in Brazil and across its five geographic regions, by sex, in the population over 20 years of age, as well as make projections for the period 2010-2029. An ecological study is presented herein, which distributed gastric cancer-related deaths in Brazil and its geographic regions. The effects of age-period and birth cohort were calculated by the Poisson regression model and projections were made with the age-period-cohort model in the statistical program R. Progressive reduction of mortality rates was observed in the 1980's, and then higher and lower mortality rates were verified in the 2000's, for both sexes, in Brazil and for the South, Southeast and Midwest regions. A progressive decrease in mortality rates was observed for the Northeast (both sexes) and North (men only) regions within the period 1995-1999, followed by rising rates. Regional differences were demonstrated in the mortality rates for gastric cancer in Brazil, and the least developed regions of the country will present increases in projected mortality rates.

Scoring life insurance applicants' laboratory results, blood pressure and build to predict all-cause mortality risk.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

2012-01-01

Evaluate the degree of medium to longer term mortality prediction possible from a scoring system covering all laboratory testing used for life insurance applicants, as well as blood pressure and build measurements. Using the results of testing for life insurance applicants who reported a Social Security number in conjunction with the Social Security Death Master File, the mortality associated with each test result was defined by age and sex. The individual mortality scores for each test were combined for each individual and a composite mortality risk score was developed. This score was then tested against the insurance applicant dataset to evaluate its ability to discriminate risk across age and sex. The composite risk score was highly predictive of all-cause mortality risk in a linear manner from the best to worst quintile of scores in a nearly identical fashion for each sex and decade of age. Laboratory studies, blood pressure and build from life insurance applicants can be used to create scoring that predicts all-cause mortality across age and sex. Such an approach may hold promise for preventative health screening as well.

Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil

PubMed Central

de Souza Giusti, Angela Carolina Brandão; de Oliveira Salvador, Pétala Tuani Candido; dos Santos, Juliano; Meira, Karina Cardoso; Camacho, Amanda Rodrigues; Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Souza, Dyego L B

2016-01-01

AIM: To analyze the effect of age-period and birth cohort on gastric cancer mortality, in Brazil and across its five geographic regions, by sex, in the population over 20 years of age, as well as make projections for the period 2010-2029. METHODS: An ecological study is presented herein, which distributed gastric cancer-related deaths in Brazil and its geographic regions. The effects of age-period and birth cohort were calculated by the Poisson regression model and projections were made with the age-period-cohort model in the statistical program R. RESULTS: Progressive reduction of mortality rates was observed in the 1980’s, and then higher and lower mortality rates were verified in the 2000’s, for both sexes, in Brazil and for the South, Southeast and Midwest regions. A progressive decrease in mortality rates was observed for the Northeast (both sexes) and North (men only) regions within the period 1995-1999, followed by rising rates. CONCLUSION: Regional differences were demonstrated in the mortality rates for gastric cancer in Brazil, and the least developed regions of the country will present increases in projected mortality rates. PMID:27605887

The Contribution of Smoking to Black-White Differences in U.S. Mortality

PubMed Central

Ho, Jessica Y.; Elo, Irma T.

2012-01-01

Smoking has significantly impacted American mortality and remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. No previous study has systematically examined the contribution of smoking-attributable deaths to mortality trends among blacks or to black-white mortality differences at older ages over time in the United States. In this article, we employ multiple methods and data sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of this contribution. We find that smoking has contributed to the black-white gap in life expectancy at age 50 for males, accounting for 20 % to 48 % of the gap between 1980 and 2005, but not for females. The fraction of deaths attributable to smoking at ages above 50 is greater for black males than for white males; and among men, current smoking status explains about 20 % of the black excess relative risk in all-cause mortality at ages above 50 without adjustment for socioeconomic characteristics. These findings advance our understanding of the contribution of smoking to contemporary mortality trends and differences and reinforce the need for interventions that better address the needs of all groups. PMID:23086667

Trends in AIDS-related mortality among people aged 60 years and older in Brazil: a nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricélia da Silveira; Firmo, Andréa Acioly Maia; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio

2016-12-01

The success of antiretroviral therapy has led to an increase in the number of older people living with human immunodeficiency virus worldwide. This study analyzed the epidemiological patterns and time trends of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) related mortality in people aged 60 and older in Brazil from 2000 to 2011. Secondary mortality data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System was used to perform a nationwide population-based study, which included all AIDS-related deaths among people aged 60 years and older in Brazil from 2000 to 2011. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) were calculated by sex, age group and place of residence. Trends over time were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis. In the 12-year study period, 12,491,280 deaths were recorded in Brazil, of which 144,175 were AIDS-related deaths. A total of 8194 AIDS-related deaths was identified in people aged 60 years and older (0.12% of all deaths and 5.7% of AIDS-related deaths). The overall age-adjusted mortality rate for the period was 4.30 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (95% confidence interval: 3.99-4.64). Males (6.45 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), aged 60-64 years (6.63 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) and residing in the South region (5.94 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) had the highest mortality rates. We observed a significant increase in mortality at the national level and in all the Brazilian regions, with a sharper increase in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged regions of the country, such as the North and Northeast. The findings show that AIDS in older people is an increasing public health problem in Brazil, and reinforce the need to establish public policies for the prevention, early diagnosis and appropriate clinical treatment of this age group.

Modeling ecological traps for the control of feral pigs

PubMed Central

Dexter, Nick; McLeod, Steven R

2015-01-01

Ecological traps are habitat sinks that are preferred by dispersing animals but have higher mortality or reduced fecundity compared to source habitats. Theory suggests that if mortality rates are sufficiently high, then ecological traps can result in extinction. An ecological trap may be created when pest animals are controlled in one area, but not in another area of equal habitat quality, and when there is density-dependent immigration from the high-density uncontrolled area to the low-density controlled area. We used a logistic population model to explore how varying the proportion of habitat controlled, control mortality rate, and strength of density-dependent immigration for feral pigs could affect the long-term population abundance and time to extinction. Increasing control mortality, the proportion of habitat controlled and the strength of density-dependent immigration decreased abundance both within and outside the area controlled. At higher levels of these parameters, extinction was achieved for feral pigs. We extended the analysis with a more complex stochastic, interactive model of feral pig dynamics in the Australian rangelands to examine how the same variables as the logistic model affected long-term abundance in the controlled and uncontrolled area and time to extinction. Compared to the logistic model of feral pig dynamics, the stochastic interactive model predicted lower abundances and extinction at lower control mortalities and proportions of habitat controlled. To improve the realism of the stochastic interactive model, we substituted fixed mortality rates with a density-dependent control mortality function, empirically derived from helicopter shooting exercises in Australia. Compared to the stochastic interactive model with fixed mortality rates, the model with the density-dependent control mortality function did not predict as substantial decline in abundance in controlled or uncontrolled areas or extinction for any combination of variables. These models demonstrate that pest eradication is theoretically possible without the pest being controlled throughout its range because of density-dependent immigration into the area controlled. The stronger the density-dependent immigration, the better the overall control in controlled and uncontrolled habitat combined. However, the stronger the density-dependent immigration, the poorer the control in the area controlled. For feral pigs, incorporating environmental stochasticity improves the prospects for eradication, but adding a realistic density-dependent control function eliminates these prospects. PMID:26045954

A model framework for mortality and health data classified by age, area, and time.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2006-03-01

This article sets out a modeling framework for modeling health outcomes over area, age, and time dimensions that takes account of spatial correlation, interactions between dimensions, and cohort as well as age effects. The goals of the framework include parsimony and parameter interpretability. Multivariate extensions may be made allowing interdependent or shared effects between different outcomes (e.g., ill health and mortality). A particular focus is on assessing the proportionality assumption whereby separate age and area effects multiply to produce age-area mortality or illness rates, and age-area interactions are assumed not to exist. A trivariate (mortality-health) application of the framework involves cross-sectional data in the 33 London boroughs, while a longitudinal univariate application involves deaths for the same areas over four 5-year periods starting in 1979.

Population density, socioeconomic environment and all-cause mortality: a multilevel survival analysis of 2.7 million individuals in Denmark.

PubMed

Meijer, Mathias; Kejs, Anne Mette; Stock, Christiane; Bloomfield, Kim; Ejstrud, Bo; Schlattmann, Peter

2012-03-01

This study examines the relative effects of population density and area-level SES on all-cause mortality in Denmark. A shared frailty model was fitted with 2.7 million persons aged 30-81 years in 2,121 parishes. Residence in areas with high population density increased all-cause mortality for all age groups. For older age groups, residence in areas with higher proportions of unemployed persons had an additional effect. Area-level factors explained considerably more variation in mortality among the elderly than among younger generations. Overall this study suggests that structural prevention efforts in neighborhoods could help reduce mortality when mediating processes between area-level socioeconomic status, population density and mortality are found. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of built environment adaptations to heat exposure and mortality during hot weather, West Midlands region, UK.

PubMed

Taylor, Jonathon; Wilkinson, Paul; Picetti, Roberto; Symonds, Phil; Heaviside, Clare; Macintyre, Helen L; Davies, Michael; Mavrogianni, Anna; Hutchinson, Emma

2018-02-01

There is growing recognition of the need to improve protection against the adverse health effects of hot weather in the context of climate change. We quantify the impact of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and selected adaptation measures made to dwellings on temperature exposure and mortality in the West Midlands region of the UK. We used 1) building physics models to assess indoor temperatures, initially in the existing housing stock and then following adaptation measures (energy efficiency building fabric upgrades and/or window shutters), of representative dwelling archetypes using data from the English Housing Survey (EHS), and 2) modelled UHI effect on outdoor temperatures. The ages of residents were combined with evidence on the heat-mortality relationship to estimate mortality risk and to quantify population-level changes in risk following adaptations to reduce summertime heat exposure. Results indicate that the UHI effect accounts for an estimated 21% of mortality. External shutters may reduce heat-related mortality by 30-60% depending on weather conditions, while shutters in conjunction with energy-efficient retrofitting may reduce risk by up to 52%. The use of shutters appears to be one of the most effective measures providing protection against heat-related mortality during periods of high summer temperatures, although their effectiveness may be limited under extreme temperatures. Energy efficiency adaptations to the dwellings and measures to increase green space in the urban environment to combat the UHI effect appear to be less beneficial for reducing heat-related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-specific effects of diphtheria tetanus pertussis vaccination on child mortality in Cebu, The Philippines.

PubMed

Chan, Grace J; Moulton, Lawrence H; Becker, Stan; Muñoz, Alvaro; Black, Robert E

2007-10-01

To determine the non-specific effects of diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (DTP) vaccination and sex on mortality before 30 months of age among those who received Bacille Calmette Guerin (BCG) vaccine in a high mortality area. This analysis used a longitudinal study of child survival monitoring the use of primary care services, morbidity and mortality in Metro Cebu, The Philippines. Participants included 14 537 children under 30 months of age who received a BCG vaccination from July 1988 to January 1991. The main outcome measure was all-cause mortality. Mortality before 30 months of age was 57% lower among BCG-vaccinated children who received DTP vaccination than BCG-vaccinated children who did not receive DTP vaccination {hazard ratio (HR) for vaccinated vs unvaccinated 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21-0.88]}. Females had lower mortality rates [HR = 0.19 (0.04-0.86), P = 0.03] than males among DTP-unvaccinated children. The protective effect of DTP vaccination was more pronounced in males [HR 0.32 (0.14-0.73)] than in females [HR 0.86 (0.18-4.23)]. DTP vaccination increased (interaction term P = 0.08) the female-to-male mortality ratio to 0.76 (0.52-1.12). Among BCG-vaccinated children under 30 months of age, DTP vaccination is associated with improved survival. The increased female-male mortality ratio is associated with reduced mortality among males following DTP vaccination rather than increased mortality among female children.

The Trends in Cardiovascular Diseases and Respiratory Diseases Mortality in Urban and Rural China, 1990-2015.

PubMed

Sun, Weiwei; Zhou, Yun; Zhang, Zhuang; Cao, Limin; Chen, Weihong

2017-11-15

With the rapid development of the economy over the past 20 years, the mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and respiratory diseases (RDs) have changed in China. This study aimed to analyze the trends of mortality rates and years of life lost (YLLs) from CVDs and RDs in the rural and urban population from 1990 to 2015. Using data from Chinese yearbooks, joinpoint regression analysis was employed to estimate the annual percent change (APC) of mortality rates from CVDs and RDs. YLLs due to CVDs and RDs were calculated by a standard method, adopting recommended standard life expectancy at birth values of 80 years for men and 82.5 years for women. Age-standardized mortality rates and YLL rates were calculated by using the direct method based on the Chinese population from the sixth population census of 2010. Age-standardized mortality rates from CVDs for urban residents and from RDs for both urban and rural residents showed decreasing trends in China from 1990 to 2015. Age-standardized mortality rates from CVDs among rural residents remained constant during above period and outstripped those among urban residents gradually. The age-standardized YLL rates of CVDs for urban and rural residents decreased 35.2% and 8.3% respectively. Additionally, the age-standardized YLL rates of RDs for urban and rural residents decreased 64.2% and 79.0% respectively. The age-standardized mortality and YLL rates from CVDs and RDs gradually decreased in China from 1990 to 2015. We observed more substantial declines of the mortality rates from CVDs in urban areas and from RDs in rural areas.

Changes in government spending on healthcare and population mortality in the European union, 1995–2010: a cross-sectional ecological study

PubMed Central

Watkins, Johnathan; Atun, Rifat; Williams, Callum; Zeltner, Thomas; Maruthappu, Mahiben

2015-01-01

Objective Economic measures such as unemployment and gross domestic product are correlated with changes in health outcomes. We aimed to examine the effects of changes in government healthcare spending, an increasingly important measure given constrained government budgets in several European Union countries. Design Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the effect of changes in healthcare spending as a proportion of total government expenditure, government healthcare spending as a proportion of gross domestic product and government healthcare spending measured in purchasing power parity per capita, on five mortality indicators. Additional variables were controlled for to ensure robustness of data. One to five year lag analyses were conducted. Setting and Participants European Union countries 1995–2010. Main outcome measures Neonatal mortality, postneonatal mortality, one to five years of age mortality, under five years of age mortality, adult male mortality, adult female mortality. Results A 1% decrease in government healthcare spending was associated with significant increase in all mortality metrics: neonatal mortality (coefficient −0.1217, p = 0.0001), postneonatal mortality (coefficient −0.0499, p = 0.0018), one to five years of age mortality (coefficient −0.0185, p = 0.0002), under five years of age mortality (coefficient −0.1897, p = 0.0003), adult male mortality (coefficient −2.5398, p = 0.0000) and adult female mortality (coefficient −1.4492, p = 0.0000). One per cent decrease in healthcare spending, measured as a proportion of gross domestic product and in purchasing power parity, was both associated with significant increases (p < 0.05) in all metrics. Five years after the 1% decrease in healthcare spending, significant increases (p < 0.05) continued to be observed in all mortality metrics. Conclusions Decreased government healthcare spending is associated with increased population mortality in the short and long term. Policy interventions implemented in response to the financial crisis may be associated with worsening population health. PMID:26510733

Changes in government spending on healthcare and population mortality in the European union, 1995-2010: a cross-sectional ecological study.

PubMed

Budhdeo, Sanjay; Watkins, Johnathan; Atun, Rifat; Williams, Callum; Zeltner, Thomas; Maruthappu, Mahiben

2015-12-01

Economic measures such as unemployment and gross domestic product are correlated with changes in health outcomes. We aimed to examine the effects of changes in government healthcare spending, an increasingly important measure given constrained government budgets in several European Union countries. Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the effect of changes in healthcare spending as a proportion of total government expenditure, government healthcare spending as a proportion of gross domestic product and government healthcare spending measured in purchasing power parity per capita, on five mortality indicators. Additional variables were controlled for to ensure robustness of data. One to five year lag analyses were conducted. European Union countries 1995-2010. Neonatal mortality, postneonatal mortality, one to five years of age mortality, under five years of age mortality, adult male mortality, adult female mortality. A 1% decrease in government healthcare spending was associated with significant increase in all mortality metrics: neonatal mortality (coefficient -0.1217, p = 0.0001), postneonatal mortality (coefficient -0.0499, p = 0.0018), one to five years of age mortality (coefficient -0.0185, p = 0.0002), under five years of age mortality (coefficient -0.1897, p = 0.0003), adult male mortality (coefficient -2.5398, p = 0.0000) and adult female mortality (coefficient -1.4492, p = 0.0000). One per cent decrease in healthcare spending, measured as a proportion of gross domestic product and in purchasing power parity, was both associated with significant increases (p < 0.05) in all metrics. Five years after the 1% decrease in healthcare spending, significant increases (p < 0.05) continued to be observed in all mortality metrics. Decreased government healthcare spending is associated with increased population mortality in the short and long term. Policy interventions implemented in response to the financial crisis may be associated with worsening population health. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Trends in mortality from COPD among adults in the United States.

PubMed

Ford, Earl S

2015-10-01

COPD imposes a large public health burden internationally and in the United States. The objective of this study was to examine trends in mortality from COPD among US adults from 1968 to 2011. Data from the National Vital Statistics System from 1968 to 2011 for adults aged ≥ 25 years were accessed, and trends in mortality rates were examined with Joinpoint analysis. Among all adults, age-adjusted mortality rate rose from 29.4 per 100,000 population in 1968 to 67.0 per 100,000 population in 1999 and then declined to 63.7 per 100,000 population in 2011 (annual percentage change [APC] 2000-2011, -0.2%; 95% CI, -0.6 to 0.2). The age-adjusted mortality rate among men peaked in 1999 and then declined (APC 1999-2011, -1.1%; 95% CI, -1.4 to -0.7), whereas the age-adjusted mortality rate among women increased from 2000 to 2011, peaking in 2008 (APC 2000-2011, 0.4%; 95% CI, 0.0-0.9). Despite a narrowing of the sex gap, mortality rates in men continued to exceed those in women. Evidence of a decline in the APC was noted for black men (1999-2011, -1.5%; 95% CI, -2.1 to -1.0) and white men (1999-2011, -0.9%; 95% CI, -1.3 to -0.6), adults aged 55 to 64 years (1989-2011, -1.0%; 95% CI, -1.2 to -0.8), and adults aged 65 to 74 years (1999-2011, -1.2%; 95% CI, -1.6 to -0.9). In the United States, the mortality rate from COPD has declined since 1999 in men and some age groups but appears to be still rising in women, albeit at a reduced pace.

Compression of Morbidity and Mortality: New Perspectives1

PubMed Central

Stallard, Eric

2017-01-01

Compression of morbidity is a reduction over time in the total lifetime days of chronic disability, reflecting a balance between (1) morbidity incidence rates and (2) case-continuance rates—generated by case-fatality and case-recovery rates. Chronic disability includes limitations in activities of daily living and cognitive impairment, which can be covered by long-term care insurance. Morbidity improvement can lead to a compression of morbidity if the reductions in age-specific prevalence rates are sufficiently large to overcome the increases in lifetime disability due to concurrent mortality improvements and progressively higher disability prevalence rates with increasing age. Compression of mortality is a reduction over time in the variance of age at death. Such reductions are generally accompanied by increases in the mean age at death; otherwise, for the variances to decrease, the death rates above the mean age at death would need to increase, and this has rarely been the case. Mortality improvement is a reduction over time in the age-specific death rates and a corresponding increase in the cumulative survival probabilities and age-specific residual life expectancies. Mortality improvement does not necessarily imply concurrent compression of mortality. This paper reviews these concepts, describes how they are related, shows how they apply to changes in mortality over the past century and to changes in morbidity over the past 30 years, and discusses their implications for future changes in the United States. The major findings of the empirical analyses are the substantial slowdowns in the degree of mortality compression over the past half century and the unexpectedly large degree of morbidity compression that occurred over the morbidity/disability study period 1984–2004; evidence from other published sources suggests that morbidity compression may be continuing. PMID:28740358